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#           Rainfall an unlikely trigger of Kilauea’s 2018 rift eruption      

      February 2, 2022    

If volcanic eruptions could be forecast from the occurrence of some external process, it might be possible to better mitigate risk and protect lives and livelihoods. Farquharson and Amelung1 suggested that the 2018 lower East Rift Zone (ERZ) eruption of Kīlauea Volcano—the most destructive eruption in Hawai‘i in at least 200 years2—was triggered by extreme precipitation, which caused increased pore pressure that resulted in mechanical weakening of the volcano. Here we argue that Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption was instead caused by significant pre-eruptive pressurization, that pre-eruptive rainfall was not extreme, and that there is no significant correlation between rain and eruptions at Kīlauea. Understanding the causal mechanisms of volcanic eruptions is vital for hazard assessment and mitigation, and misattribution may compromise monitoring, preparedness, communication and response efforts.

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#### Michael Poland

##### Scientist in Charge

Yellowstone Volcano Observatory

mpoland@usgs.gov

360-993-8900

#### Shaul Hurwitz

##### Research Hydrologist

California Volcano Observatory

shaulh@usgs.gov

####             Jim Kauahikaua (Former Employee)          

##### Research Geophysicist

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

#### Emily Montgomery-Brown

##### Research Geophysicist, Volcano Geodesist

Cascades Volcano Observatory

emontgomery-brown@usgs.gov

650-329-5227

#### Kyle R. Anderson, Ph.D.

##### Volcano Geophysicist

California Volcano Observatory

kranderson@usgs.gov

650-439-2561

#### Ingrid A. Johanson

##### Research Geophysicist

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

ijohanson@usgs.gov

808-967-8838

#### Matthew Patrick, Ph.D.

##### Research Geologist

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

mpatrick@usgs.gov

808-967-8861

#### Christina A. Neal

##### Science Center Director

Volcano Science Center

tneal@usgs.gov

907-786-7458

## Related Content

#### Michael Poland

##### Scientist in Charge

Yellowstone Volcano Observatory

mpoland@usgs.gov

360-993-8900

#### Shaul Hurwitz

##### Research Hydrologist

California Volcano Observatory

shaulh@usgs.gov

####             Jim Kauahikaua (Former Employee)          

##### Research Geophysicist

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

#### Emily Montgomery-Brown

##### Research Geophysicist, Volcano Geodesist

Cascades Volcano Observatory

emontgomery-brown@usgs.gov

650-329-5227

#### Kyle R. Anderson, Ph.D.

##### Volcano Geophysicist

California Volcano Observatory

kranderson@usgs.gov

650-439-2561

#### Ingrid A. Johanson

##### Research Geophysicist

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

ijohanson@usgs.gov

808-967-8838

#### Matthew Patrick, Ph.D.

##### Research Geologist

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

mpatrick@usgs.gov

808-967-8861

#### Christina A. Neal

##### Science Center Director

Volcano Science Center

tneal@usgs.gov

907-786-7458

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#### USGS Volcano Science Center

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360-993-8900

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