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#           Predicting burn severity for integration with post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment: A case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA      

      August 14, 2023    

**Background: **Burn severity significantly increases the likelihood and volume of post-wildfire debris flows. Pre-fire severity predictions can expedite mitigation efforts because precipitation contributing to these hazards often occurs shortly after wildfires, leaving little time for post-fire planning and management.

**Aim: **The aim of this study was to predict burn severity using pre-fire conditions of individual wildfire events and estimate potential post-fire debris flow to unburned areas.

**Methods: **We used random forests to model dNBR from pre-fire weather, fuels, topography, and remotely sensed data. We validated our model predictions against post-fire observations and potential post-fire debris-flow hazard estimates.

**Key results: **Fuels, pre-fire weather, and topography were important predictors of burn severity, although predictor importance varied between fires. Post-fire debris-flow hazard rankings from predicted burn severity (pre-fire) were similar to hazard assessments based on observed burn severity (post-fire).

**Conclusion: **Predicted burn severity can serve as an input to post-fire debris-flow models before wildfires occur, antecedent to standard post-fire burn severity products. Assessing a larger set of fires under disparate conditions and landscapes will be needed to refine predictive models.

**Implications: **Burn severity models based on pre-fire conditions enable the prediction of fire effects and identification of potential hazards to prioritise response and mitigation.

## Citation Information

## Related Content

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#### Todd Hawbaker

##### Research Ecologist

Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

tjhawbaker@usgs.gov

303-236-1371

#### Jason Kean

##### Research Hydrologist

Landslide Hazards Program

jwkean@usgs.gov

303-273-8608

#### Rachel A Loehman, Ph.D.

##### Research Landscape Ecologist

Alaska Science Center

rloehman@usgs.gov

907-268-7226

## Related Content

#### Todd Hawbaker

##### Research Ecologist

Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

tjhawbaker@usgs.gov

303-236-1371

#### Jason Kean

##### Research Hydrologist

Landslide Hazards Program

jwkean@usgs.gov

303-273-8608

#### Rachel A Loehman, Ph.D.

##### Research Landscape Ecologist

Alaska Science Center

rloehman@usgs.gov

907-268-7226

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