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#           Predicted sea-level rise-driven biogeomorphological changes on Fire Island, New York: Implications for people and plovers      

      March 29, 2022    

Forecasting biogeomorphological conditions for barrier islands is critical for informing sea-level rise (SLR) planning, including management of coastal development and ecosystems. We combined five probabilistic models to predict SLR-driven changes and their implications on Fire Island, New York, by 2050. We predicted barrier island biogeomorphological conditions, dynamic landcover response, piping plover (Charadrius melodus) habitat availability, and probability of storm overwash under three scenarios of shoreline change (SLC) and compared results to observed 2014/2015 conditions. Scenarios assumed increasing rates of mean SLC from 0 to 4.71 m erosion per year. We observed uncertainty in several morphological predictions (e.g., beach width, dune height), suggesting decreasing confidence that Fire Island will evolve in response to SLR as it has in the past. Where most likely conditions could be determined, models predicted that Fire Island would become flatter, narrower, and more overwash-prone with increasing rates of SLC. Beach ecosystems were predicted to respond dynamically to SLR and migrate with the shoreline, while marshes lost the most area of any landcover type compared to 2014/2015 conditions. Such morphological changes may lead to increased flooding or breaching with coastal storms. However—although modest declines in piping plover habitat were observed with SLC—the dynamic response of beaches, flatter topography, and increased likelihood of overwash suggest storms could promote suitable conditions for nesting piping plovers above what our geomorphology models predict. Therefore, Fire Island may offer a conservation opportunity for coastal species that rely on early successional beach environments if natural overwash processes are encouraged.

## Citation Information

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#### Ben Gutierrez, PhD

##### Geologist

Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

bgutierrez@usgs.gov

508-457-2289

#### Erika Lentz, PhD

##### Research Geologist

Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

elentz@usgs.gov

508-457-2238

#### Nathaniel Plant, Ph.D.

##### Center Director

St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

nplant@usgs.gov

727-502-8072

#### Kara Doran

##### Supervisory Physical Scientist

St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

kdoran@usgs.gov

727-502-8117

## Related Content

#### Ben Gutierrez, PhD

##### Geologist

Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

bgutierrez@usgs.gov

508-457-2289

#### Erika Lentz, PhD

##### Research Geologist

Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

elentz@usgs.gov

508-457-2238

#### Nathaniel Plant, Ph.D.

##### Center Director

St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

nplant@usgs.gov

727-502-8072

#### Kara Doran

##### Supervisory Physical Scientist

St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

kdoran@usgs.gov

727-502-8117

### Study Area

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####               St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center          

600 4th Street SouthSt. Petersburg, FL33701United States

727-502-8000

727-502-8181

#### Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

384 Woods Hole Rd.Woods Hole, MA02543United States

508-548-8700

508-457-2310

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