10B-i APPENDIX 10B. FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE MULTIPLIERS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10B.1 INTRODUCTION

................................................................................................. 10B-1

10B.2 METHODOLOGY

................................................................................................ 10B-1

10B.3 FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE ENERGY MULTIPL IERS

............................................... 10B-3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10B.2.1 Dependence of FFC Parameters on AEO Inputs .......................................10B-3
Table 10B.3.1 Full Fuel Cycle Energy Multipliers (Based on AEO 2012) .......................10B-310B-1 APPENDIX 10B. FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE MULTIPLIERS

10B.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix summarizes the methods used to calculate full- fuel

- cycle (FFC) energy savings expected to result from potential standard s. The FFC measure includes point-of- use (site) energy, the energy losses associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of elect ricity, and the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. DOE’s traditional approach encompassed only site energy and the energy losses associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity . Per DOE’s 2011 Statement of Policy for Adopting Full Fuel Cycle Analyses , DOE now uses FFC measures of energy use and

emissions in its energy conservation standards analyses. 1 This appendix summarizes the methods

used to incorporate the full

- fuel

- cycle impacts into the analysis.

This analysis uses several different terms to reference energy use. The physical sources of energy are the p rimary f uels such as coal, natural gas, liquid fuels, etc . Primary energy is equal to the heat content ( Btu ) of the primary fuels used to provide an end- use service

. Site energy use is defined as the energy consumed at the point-of-use in a building or industrial process . Where natural gas and petroleum fuels are consumed at the site (for example in a furnace), site energy is identical to primary energy, with both equal to the heat content of the primary fuel consumed. For electricity, site energy is measured in kWh. In this case the primary energy is equal to the quads of primary energy required to generate and deliver the site electricity. This p rimary energy

is calculated by multiplying the site kWh times the site

- to -power-plant conversion factor , g iven in chapter 10. For the FFC analysis, the u pstream energy use is defined as the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. FFC energy use is the sum of primary plus upstream energy use.

Both primary f uels and electricity are used in upstream activities. The treatment of electricity in fuel cycle analysis must distinguish between electricity generated by fossil fuels and uranium, and electricity generated from renewable fluxes (wind, solar and hydro). F or the former, the upstream fuel cycle impacts are derived from the amount of fuel consumed at the power plant. For the latter, no fuel per se is used, so there is no upstream component.

10B.2 METHODOLOGY

The mathematical approach is discussed in the paper A Mathematical Analysis of Full Fuel Cycle Energy Use

, 2 and details on the fuel production chain analysis are presented in the paper Projections of Full Fuel Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics 3 The text below provides a brief

summary of the methods used to c alculate FFC energy

.

When all energy quantities are normalized to the same units, the FFC energy use can be represented as the product of the primary energy use and an FFC multiplier

. The FFC multiplier is defined mathematically as a function of a set of parameters representing the energy intensity and material losses at each production stage. The se parameters depend only on physical data, so10B-2 the calculations do not require any assumptions about prices or other economic data. While i n general these parameter values may vary by geographic region , for this analysis national averages are used.

In the notation below, the indices x and y are used to indicate fuel type, with x=c for coal, x=g for natural gas, x=p for petroleum fuels, x=u for uranium and x=r for renewable fluxes. The fuel cycle parameters are:

• a x is the quantity of fuel x burned per unit of electricity output, on average, for grid electricity. The calculation of a

x includes a factor to account for transmission and distribution system losses.

• b y is the amount of grid electricity used in production of fuel y, in MWh per physical unit of fuel y.

• c xy is the amount of fuel x consumed in producing one unit of fuel y.

• q x is the heat content of fuel x (MBtu/physical unit) a

• z x (s) is the emissions intensity for fuel x (mass of pollutant s per physical unit of x)

The parameters are calculated as a function of time with an annual time step ; h ence, a time

series of annual values is used to estimate the FFC energy and emissions saving s in each year of the analysis period. Fossil fuel quantities are converted to energy units using the heat content

factors q x . To convert electricity in kWh to primary energy units, on- site electricity consumption is multiplied by the s ite

- to -power-plant conversion factor indicated in chapter 10

. The s ite

- to

power-plant conversion factor is defined as the ratio of the total primary energy consumption by the electric power sector (in quadrillion Btu ) divided by the total electricity generation in each

year.

The FFC multiplier is denoted μ (mu). A separate multiplier is calculated for each fuel used

on site . A multiplier is also calculated for electricity reflecting the fuel mix used in its generation

. The multipliers are dimensionless numbers that are applie d to primary energy savings to obtain the FFC energy savings. The upstream component of the energy savings is proportional to (μ

- 1). The fuel type is denoted by a subscript on the multiplier μ.

For DOE’s appliance standards energy savings estimates, the f uel cycle analysis methodology is designed to make use of data and projections published in the Annual Energy

Outlook (

AEO ). Table 10B.2.1 provides a summary of the AEO data used as inputs to the

different parameter calculation s. The AEO does not provide a ll the info rmation needed to

estimate total energy use in the fuel production chain. Reference 3 describes the additional data sources used to complete the analysis. However, the time dependence in the FFC multipliers arises exclusively from variables take n from the AEO

. The FFC analysis for this preliminary analysis used data from AEO 2012

. 4

a Where MBtu = 1000 Btu.10B-3 Table 10B.2.1 Dependence of FFC Parameters on AEO Inputs

Parameter Fuel AEO Table Variables

q x all Conversion Factors MBtu per physical unit

a x all Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions Generation by fuel type Energy Consumption by Sector and

Source Electric power sector energy consumption

b

c , c nc , c pc coal Coal Production by Region and Type Production by coal type and

sulfur content

b p , c np , c pp petroleum Refining Industry Energy Consumption Refining only energy use Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition Crude supply by source International Liquids Supply and Disposition Crude oil imports Oil and Gas Supply Crude oil domestic production

c nn natural

gas Oil and Gas Supply US dry gas production Natural Gas Supply, Disposition and

Prices Pipeline, lease and plant fuel

z x all Electricity Supply

, Disposition

, Prices and Emissions Power sector emissions

10B.3 FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE ENERGY MULTIPLIERS

FFC energy m ultipliers are presented in Table 10B.3.1 for selected years. To extend the analysis period beyond 2035, the last year in the AEO 2012 projection, the years 2020 to 2035

are used to define a linear trend to 2040, which is then extr apolated to the final year of the analysis period. The multiplier for electricity reflects the shares of various primary fuels in total electricity generation over the forecast period.

Table 10B.3.1 Full F uel C ycle Energy M ultipliers (Based on AEO 2012)

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Electricity (power plant primary energy use) 1.042 1.041 1.040 1.040 1.041 1.041

Natural Gas (site) 1.102 1.103 1.100 1.099 1.098 1.097 Petroleum Fuels (site) 1.142 1.146 1.153 1.163 1.172 1.18110B-4 REFERENCES

1 United States. Office of the Federal Re gister

. Federal Register, Volume 76, Number 160, August 18, 2011, Pages 51281-51868 . Washington D.C.. UNT Digital Library.

2 Coughlin, K., A Mathematical Analysis of Full Fuel Cycle Energy Use

. Energy , 2012. 37(1): pp. 698-708 < http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544211006803 >

3 Coughlin, K. 2013. Projections of Full- Fuel

- Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Report Number LBNL-6025E.

4 U.S. Department of Energy- Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2012 with Projections to 2035. June 2012. Washington, D.C.

< http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383%282012%29.pdf >