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#           Large increases in methane emissions expected from North America’s largest wetland complex      

      March 1, 2023    

Natural methane (CH4) emissions from aquatic ecosystems may rise because of human-induced climate warming, although the magnitude of increase is highly uncertain. Using an exceptionally large CH4 flux dataset (~19,000 chamber measurements) and remotely sensed information, we modeled plot- and landscape-scale wetland CH4 emissions from the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), North America’s largest wetland complex. Plot-scale CH4 emissions were driven by hydrology, temperature, vegetation, and wetland size. Historically, landscape-scale PPR wetland CH4 emissions were largely dependent on total wetland extent. However, regardless of future wetland extent, PPR CH4 emissions are predicted to increase by two- or threefold by 2100 under moderate or severe warming scenarios, respectively. Our findings suggest that international efforts to decrease atmospheric CH4 concentrations should jointly account for anthropogenic and natural emissions to maintain climate mitigation targets to the end of the century.

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March 24, 2022

####                 Methane flux model for wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America: Model input data and programming code              

Ecosystems Mission Area, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

#### Sheel Bansal, PhD

##### Research Ecologist

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

sbansal@usgs.gov

701-368-0222

#### Max Post van der Burg, PhD

##### Chief - Spatial and Ecological Analytics Branch

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

maxpostvanderburg@usgs.gov

701-253-5574

#### John W. Jones

##### Research Geographer

Water Resources Mission Area

jwjones@usgs.gov

703-994-3224

#### Owen McKenna, PhD

##### Research Ecologist

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

omckenna@usgs.gov

701-253-5527

#### Brian Tangen

##### Ecologist

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

btangen@usgs.gov

402-328-4134

#### Robert Gleason

##### Center Director

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

rgleason@usgs.gov

701-368-9026

## Related Content

March 24, 2022

####                 Methane flux model for wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America: Model input data and programming code              

Ecosystems Mission Area, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

#### Sheel Bansal, PhD

##### Research Ecologist

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

sbansal@usgs.gov

701-368-0222

#### Max Post van der Burg, PhD

##### Chief - Spatial and Ecological Analytics Branch

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

maxpostvanderburg@usgs.gov

701-253-5574

#### John W. Jones

##### Research Geographer

Water Resources Mission Area

jwjones@usgs.gov

703-994-3224

#### Owen McKenna, PhD

##### Research Ecologist

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

omckenna@usgs.gov

701-253-5527

#### Brian Tangen

##### Ecologist

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

btangen@usgs.gov

402-328-4134

#### Robert Gleason

##### Center Director

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

rgleason@usgs.gov

701-368-9026

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####               Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center          

8711 37th Street SoutheastJamestown, ND58401-7317United States

701-253-5500

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