From: Richard Parker [mailto:richardparkerdc@gmail.com] 

Sent: Friday, November 04, 2011 11:21 AM 

To: Alex Hofmann; Andrew Delaski; Aris Marantan; Art Rosenfeld; Bob Saint; Bob Smith; Brian Coffey; 

Caitlin Johnson; Carlos Gaytan; Caskey, John; charlie drexler; Charlie Stevens; Chris Bolduc; Chris Brown; 

Clark Silcox; Creevy, Jim; Dan Cohen; Daniel Young; David Flaten; Eric Peterson; Freeman, Jeremiah; 

Gary Fernstrom; Greg Coulter; Greg Rosenquist; Hirsch, Bruce R; James Lass; Jennifer Tiedeman; Jerry 

Corkran; Jerry Hodge; Jerry Schoen; Jim Raba; Joanna Mauer; John Cymbalsky; John Rossetti; Katie 

Coughlin; Ken Winder; Mahesh P. Sampat; Matthew Nardotti; Maxine Savitz; Meg Waltner; Meyers, 

Aaron; Michael Hyland; Michael Rivest; Millure, Dave; Phil Harter; Phil Hopkinson; Polinski, Raymond; 

Puesh Kumar; Richard W. Parker; Rick Anderson; Rob Greeson; Robert Berman; Robert van Buskirk; 

Robin Roy; Ryan, Paul; Scott Beck; Simmons, Chuck; Steve Nadel; Steve Rosenstock; Thomas Petrosino; 

Tim Ballo; Tom Eckman; Wes Patterson; Zhimei Luo 

Subject: MV Transformers Material Price Sensitivity Analysis 

Colleagues, 

There have been a number of requests for additional LCC runs with various material prices 

reflecting concerns with possible shortages of supply under various standards scenarios. 

Attached is a sheet that summarizes the price sensitivity analysis that is currently in the pipeline: 

ranging from 2006 minus 25% on the low side to 2008 plus 25% on the high side. 

For amorphous that yields a range from $1.72/lb to $3.64/lb, with a base case (2010) of 2.38/lb. 

For ZDMH, the range is from $1.41 to $3.22 with a base of 2.05. (A sensitivity is already being 

run with ZDMH screened entirely out of the analysis, reflecting concerns that this material may 

not be available due to a reluctance to supply the North American market allegedly due to fear of 

dumping duties.) 

As we discussed, each run takes several hours per design line so we obviously cannot 

accommodate all requests, nor would it be instructive to do so absent some credible price 

scenario that is not currently being modeled and that lies outside these boundaries. 

So what I would propose is this: Could industry participants in the MV Group please 

communicate with each other today, examine the attached sheet and 

(a) try to arrive at a collective determination of whether there is reason to believe that proposed 

range of prices is really to narrow such that additional run is warranted; and 

(b) if so, propose the set of prices that you would like to see run, and a short 

explanation/justification for your request. 

Greg Coulter has kindly agreed to serve as the coordinator for this effort so please work with 

him. If for any reason, issues of confidentiality prevent you from communicating with Greg and 

others in open forum please let me know and I will discuss with you how to proceed. 

You also will need to choose a couple of design lines to focus on. I understand that DL 1 and 2 

are the lines with the most shipments in the liquid immersed category. If you have preferences 
for MVDT please convey them with your request (perhaps DL 12?). I would expect that we 

could manage runs for 3 design lines. 

Again, the consultants are swamped with work accommodating the input they've gotten from the 

group so far, so please do not make work for them by requesting additional runs unless there 

really is good cause for doing so. 

Please let us know by cob today what your preferences are. 

All best, 

Richard