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Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 5

2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 6

3 Conceptual Approach for PCS-2012 PA ................................................................................ 7

3.1 Repository Representation in BRAGFLO ........................................................ 7

3.2 Panel Closure Parameterization ...................................................................... 17

3.2.1 Capillary Pressure Parameters ........................................................................ 19

4 Salado Flow Modeling Methodology ................................................................................... 21

4.1 Initial Conditions ............................................................................................ 22

4.2 Boundary Conditions ...................................................................................... 23

5 Run Control ........................................................................................................................... 24

6 Results ................................................................................................................................... 24

6.1.1 Results for an Undisturbed Repository (Scenario S1-BF) .............................. 27

6.1.2 Results for an E1 Intrusion at 350 Years (Scenario S2-BF) ........................... 43

6.1.3 Results for an E2 Intrusion at 350 Years (Scenario S4-BF) ........................... 53

6.1.4 Results for an E2 Intrusion at 1000 Years Followed by a E1 Intrusion at 2000 

Years (Scenario S6-BF) .................................................................................. 66

7 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 69

8 References ............................................................................................................................. 70

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List of Figures 

Figure 3-1: A Schematic of the “Option D” Panel Closure ......................................................................................... 7 

Figure 3-2: PABC-2009 BRAGFLO Grid and Material Map (Δx, Δy, and Δz dimensions in meters). ......................... 8 

Figure 3-3: Schematic Diagram of the ROMPCS ....................................................................................................... 10 

Figure 3-4: PCS-2012 BRAGFLO Grid and Material Map, Years 0 to 100 ............................................................... 12 

Figure 3-5: PCS-2012 BRAGFLO Grid and Material Map, Years 100 to 200 ........................................................... 13 

Figure 3-6: PCS-2012 BRAGFLO Grid and Material Map, Years 200 to Time of Intrusion ..................................... 14 

Figure 3-7: PCS-2012 BRAGFLO Grid and Material Map for an E1 Intrusion ......................................................... 15 

Figure 3-8: PCS-2012 BRAGFLO Grid and Material Map for an E2 Intrusion ......................................................... 16 

Figure 6-1: PCS-2012 PA Definition of Cumulative Flow toward the Waste Panel, across the Southernmost Panel 

Closure Plane .............................................................................................................................................................. 28 

Figure 6-2: PABC-2009 Definition of Cumulative Flow toward the Waste Panel, across the Southernmost Panel 

Closure Plane .............................................................................................................................................................. 28 

Figure 6-3: Horsetail Plot of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S1-BF. .................................... 32 

Figure 6-4: Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S1-BF. ................................................ 32 

Figure 6-5: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S1-BF. .................................. 33 

Figure 6-6: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S1-BF and Years 0 to 1,000. . 33 

Figure 6-7: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Flow Southward from the Panel Closure Plane and toward the 

Waste Panel, Scenario S1-BF ...................................................................................................................................... 34 

Figure 6-8: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Flow Southward from the Panel Closure Plane and toward the 

Waste Panel, Scenario S1-BF and Years 0 to 1,000. ................................................................................................... 34 

Figure 6-9: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S1-BF. .......................................................... 35 

Figure 6-10: Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S1-BF. .................................................................... 35 

Figure 6-11: Overall Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S1-BF. ....................................................... 36 

Figure 6-12: Overall Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S1-BF and Years 0 to 1,000. ..................... 36 

Figure 6-13: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S1-BF. ........................................ 37 

Figure 6-14: Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S1-BF. .................................................... 37 

Figure 6-15: Overall Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S1-BF. ....................................... 38

Figure 6-16: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S1-BF. ..................................................................... 38 

Figure 6-17: Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S1-BF. ................................................................................. 39 

Figure 6-18: Overall Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S1-BF. .................................................................... 39 

Figure 6-19: Overall Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S1-BF and Years 0 to 1,000. .................................. 40 

Figure 6-20: Overall Means of Pressure in the Operations Region, Scenario S1-BF. ............................................... 40 

Figure 6-21: Overall Means of Pressure in the Experimental Region, Scenario S1-BF. ............................................ 41 

Figure 6-22: Horsetail Plot of Brine Flow up the Shaft, Scenario S1-BF. .................................................................. 41 

Figure 6-23: Means of Brine Flow up the Shaft, Scenario S1-BF. .............................................................................. 42 

Figure 6-24: Overall Means of Brine Flow up the Shaft, Scenario S1-BF. ................................................................. 42 

Figure 6-25: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S2-BF. ..................................................................... 45 

Figure 6-26: Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S2-BF. ................................................................................. 45 

Figure 6-27: Overall Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S2-BF. .................................................................... 46 

Figure 6-28: Horsetail Plot of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S2-BF. .................................. 46 

Figure 6-29: Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S2-BF. .............................................. 47 

Figure 6-30: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S2-BF.................................. 47 

Figure 6-31: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S2-BF. ........................................................ 48 

Figure 6-32: Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S2-BF. .................................................................... 48 

Figure 6-33: Overall Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S2-BF. ....................................................... 49 

Figure 6-34: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S2-BF. ........................................ 49 

Figure 6-35: Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S2-BF. .................................................... 50 

Figure 6-36: Overall Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S2-BF. ....................................... 50

Figure 6-37: Horsetail Plot of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S2-BF. ........................................................... 51 

Figure 6-38: Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S2-BF. ....................................................................... 51 

Figure 6-39: Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S2-BF for the PABC-2009. ........................................ 52

Figure 6-40: Overall Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S2-BF. .......................................................... 52 

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Figure 6-41: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S4-BF. ..................................................................... 56 

Figure 6-42: Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S4-BF. ................................................................................. 56 

Figure 6-43: Overall Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenarios S1-BF and S4-BF for Years 0 to 1,000. ............... 57 

Figure 6-44: Overall Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S4-BF. .................................................................... 57 

Figure 6-45: Horsetail Plot of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S4-BF. .................................. 58 

Figure 6-46: Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S4-BF. .............................................. 58 

Figure 6-47: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenarios S1-BF and S4-BF for Years 0 

to 1,000. ....................................................................................................................................................................... 59 

Figure 6-48: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S4-BF.................................. 59 

Figure 6-49: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S4-BF. ........................................................ 60 

Figure 6-50: Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S4-BF. .................................................................... 60 

Figure 6-51: Overall Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenarios S1-BF and S4-BF for Years 0 to 1,000. ... 61 

Figure 6-52: Overall Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S4-BF. ....................................................... 61 

Figure 6-53: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S4-BF. ........................................ 62 

Figure 6-54: Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S4-BF. .................................................... 62 

Figure 6-55: Overall Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenarios S1-BF and S4-BF for Years 0 to 

1,000. ........................................................................................................................................................................... 63 

Figure 6-56: Overall Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S4-BF. ....................................... 63

Figure 6-57: Horsetail Plot of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S4-BF. ........................................................... 64 

Figure 6-58: Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S4-BF. ....................................................................... 64 

Figure 6-59: Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S4-BF for the PABC-2009. ........................................ 65

Figure 6-60: Overall Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S4-BF. .......................................................... 65 

Figure 6-61: PCS-2012 PA Horsetail Plot of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S6-BF. .................................... 67 

Figure 6-62: PABC-2009 Horsetail Plot of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S6-BF. ....................................... 67

Figure 6-63: PCS-2012 PA Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S6-BF. ................................................ 68 

Figure 6-64: PABC-2009 Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S6-BF. ................................................... 68 

Figure 6-65: Overall Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S6-BF. .......................................................... 69 

List of Tables 

Table 1: Option D Panel Closure Parameters Used in the PABC-2009 ..................................................................... 17

Table 2: ROMPCS Parameters Used in the PCS-2012 PA ......................................................................................... 18

Table 3: BRAGFLO Modeling Scenarios .................................................................................................................... 22

Table 4: Summary Statistics for Scenario S1-BF ........................................................................................................ 31

Table 5: Summary Statistics for Scenario S2-BF ........................................................................................................ 44

Table 6: Summary Statistics for Scenario S4-BF ........................................................................................................ 55

Table 7: Summary Statistics for Scenario S6-BF ........................................................................................................ 66

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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

Waste panel closures comprise a repository feature that has been represented in WIPP PA since 

the original Compliance Certification Application (CCA) of 1996. The 1998 rulemaking that 

certified WIPP to receive transuranic waste placed conditions on the panel closure design to be 

implemented in the repository. The mandated design consists of a concrete block wall, an open 

drift section, and a concrete monolith, and was termed the “Option D” panel closure. Following 

the selection of the Option D design in 1998, the engineering of the panel closure has been reassessed, and a revised design has been established that is simpler, cheaper, and easier to 

construct. The revised panel closure design, termed the Run-of-Mine Panel Closure System 

(ROMPCS), is comprised of 100 feet of ROM salt with barriers at each end. The PCS-2012 PA 

quantifies WIPP repository performance impacts associated with the replacement of the currently 

approved Option D panel closure design with the ROMPCS. Impacts are assessed via a direct 

comparison of results obtained in the PABC-2009 (where Option D was used) to those calculated 

in the PCS-2012 PA with the ROMPCS. 

 

For undisturbed conditions, implementation of the ROMPCS yields higher long-term waste panel 

pressure (on average) than was seen in the PABC-2009. The increase in mean waste panel 

pressure is accompanied by an increase in the average waste panel brine saturation for the 

ROMPCS results. The ROMPCS design allows more brine inflow to the waste panel during the 

first 200 years when compared to Option D results. This increased brine inflow, combined with 

the tightness of the ROMPCS after 200 years, results in increased waste panel gas generation (on 

average) and a subsequent increase to waste panel mean pressure. 

The lower long-term permeability range of the ROMPCS as compared to Option D yields a 

period of increased waste panel pressurization following an E1 intrusion. The increased waste 

panel mean pressure slightly inhibits brine flow into the panel after the intrusion, with a 

corresponding slight decrease to the mean waste panel brine saturation as compared to PABC2009 E1 intrusion results. 

For E2 intrusion scenarios, the PCS-2012 PA mean waste panel pressure is higher than that seen 

in the PABC-2009 at the time of intrusion, and it remains higher for the duration of the 10,000 

year regulatory period. Similarly, the mean waste panel brine saturation is higher at the time of 

intrusion in the PCS-2012 PA, resulting in higher long-term waste panel brine saturations for E2 

intrusion scenarios. 

Brine flows up the borehole that are used to calculate the radionuclide source term in WIPP PA 

are negligibly impacted by the replacement of Option D with the ROMPCS. 

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2 INTRODUCTION 

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), located in southeastern New Mexico, has been 

developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) 

disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. Containment of TRU waste at the WIPP is regulated by the 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) according to the regulations set forth in Title 40 of 

the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Part 191. The DOE demonstrates compliance with the 

containment requirements according to the Certification Criteria in Title 40 CFR Part 194 by 

means of performance assessment (PA) calculations performed by Sandia National Laboratories 

(SNL). WIPP PA calculations estimate the probability and consequence of potential 

radionuclide releases from the repository to the accessible environment for a regulatory period of 

10,000 years after facility closure. The models used in PA are maintained and updated with new 

information as part of an ongoing process. Improved information regarding important WIPP 

features, events, and processes typically results in refinements and modifications to PA models 

and the parameters used in them. Planned changes to the repository and/or the components 

therein also result in updates to WIPP PA models. WIPP PA models are used to support the 

repository recertification process that occurs at five-year intervals following the receipt of the 

first waste shipment at the site in 1999. 

Waste panel closures comprise a repository feature that has been represented in WIPP PA since 

the original Compliance Certification Application (CCA) of 1996. Panel closures are included in 

WIPP PA models principally because they are a part of the disposal system, not because they 

play a substantive role in inhibiting the release of radionuclides to the outside environment. The 

DOE stated in the CCA (DOE 1996) that “The panel closure system was not designed or 

intended to support long-term repository performance.” The 1998 rulemaking that certified 

WIPP to receive transuranic waste placed conditions on the panel closure design to be 

implemented in the repository. The mandated design consists of a concrete block wall, an open 

drift section, and a concrete monolith, and was termed the “Option D” panel closure. Following 

the selection of the Option D design in 1998, the engineering of the panel closure has been reassessed, and a revised design has been established that is simpler, cheaper, and easier to 

construct. The revised panel closure design, termed the Run-of-Mine Panel Closure System 

(ROMPCS), is comprised of 100 feet of ROM salt with barriers at each end. The ROM salt is 

generated from ongoing mining operations at the WIPP and may be compacted and/or moistened 

as it is emplaced in a panel entry. The barriers consist of ventilation bulkheads, similar to those 

currently used in the panels as room closures. 

The DOE has submitted a planned change request (PCR) to the EPA requesting that the EPA 

modify Condition 1 of the Final Certification Rulemaking for 40 CFR Part 194 (EPA, 1998) for 

the WIPP. The PCR submitted to EPA requests that Condition 1 be changed, and that the 

ROMPCS design be approved for use in all panels (DOE, 2011). In support of this rulemaking 

change, a performance assessment has been completed that incorporates the ROMPCS design 

into the current PA baseline established by the 2009 Performance Assessment Baseline 

Calculation (PABC-2009) (Clayton et al., 2010). The name given to this new panel closure PA 

is PCS-2012, and the plan for its execution is detailed in AP-161 (Camphouse 2012a). PCS2012 PA results are compared to those obtained in the PABC-2009 as a means to quantify 

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potential impacts due to the panel closure redesign. This analysis package consists of the Salado 

flow modeling component of the PCS-2012 PA. 

3 CONCEPTUAL APPROACH FOR PCS-2012 PA 

The conceptual models implemented in the BRAGFLO simulations for the PCS-2012 PA are 

unchanged from those used in the PABC-2009. The computational grid, particularly the material 

map used by BRAGFLO, is changed for the PCS-2012 PA in order to incorporate the ROMPCS 

into the calculations. These changes are discussed below. Gas generation rates and the creep 

closure model have not changed from the PABC-2009 to the PCS-2012 PA. Consequently, the 

same porosity surface is used in this calculation as was used in the PABC-2009. 

3.1 Repository Representation in BRAGFLO 

The goal of the PCS-2012 PA is to quantify regulatory compliance impacts resulting from the 

replacement of the Option D panel closure with the ROMPCS. For the sake of reference, a 

schematic of the Option D panel closure is given in Figure 3-1. As seen in that figure, the 

Option D panel closure is 40 meters long and consists of three components, namely a concrete 

explosion wall, an open drift section, and a concrete monolith. This panel closure has been 

implemented in PA analyses done in support of WIPP re-certification since the CRA-2004 PA 

(Stein & Zelinski 2003). The PABC-2009 is the current regulatory baseline. The BRAGFLO 

grid and material map used in the PABC-2009 also represented the Option D closure, and is 

shown in Figure 3-2. Note that a minor error has been corrected in the material map schematic 

shown in Figure 3-2. That figure depicts an E1 intrusion into the repository. The BRAGFLO 

schematic included with the PABC-2009 Salado flow analysis package (Nemer 2010) depicts the 

lower borehole extending only to the bottom horizon of the lower DRZ. In actuality, the lower 

borehole extends to the floor of the intruded waste panel. The PABC-2009 BRAGFLO grid and 

material map shown in Figure 3-2 has been modified so that it represents the correct extent of the 

lower borehole in an E1 intrusion. 

Figure 3-1: A Schematic of the “Option D” Panel Closure 

W a s te d is p o s a l O p e n D rift

C o n cre te

M o n o lith

9 .1 m 7 .9 m

E x p lo s io n

W a ll

3 .7 m

40 m

2 .4 o r 2 .7 m

2 .4 m

DRZ

DRZ

O p e n D rift

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Figure 3-2: PABC-2009 BRAGFLO Grid and Material Map (Δx, Δy, and Δz dimensions in me

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Several aspects of the Option D implementation in BRAGFLO are worth noting. First, the 

concrete monolith portion of the panel closure is “keyed in” to the lower and upper DRZ. The 

monolith portion of the panel closure is represented by material CONC_PCS, and this material 

extends above and below the upper and lower horizons of repository waste panels, extending into 

the surrounding DRZ. 

The permeability in the x-direction prescribed for material CONC_PCS in the PABC-2009 varies 

between a minimum value of 2.0 x 10-21 m

2

 and a maximum of 1.0 x 10-17 m

2

. The value 

assigned for each particular vector is obtained through parameter sampling over this range. The 

impact of the Option D panel closure on the overlaying DRZ in the PABC-2009 is also of note. 

The Option D panel closure was modeled as having an immediate healing effect on the DRZ 

above it in the PABC-2009. This healed portion of DRZ is represented by material DRZ_PCS, 

and its spatial extent can be seen in Figure 3-2. The permeability range assigned to material 

DRZ_PCS is equal to that prescribed to material CONC_PCS in the x-direction. 

Segments of interbed material were included in the PABC-2009 representation of the Option D 

panel closure. As seen in Figure 3-2, segments of the Anhydrite AB layer are located between 

materials CONC_PCS and DRZ_PCS. Likewise, segments of the MB-139 layer can be found 

between material CONC_PCS and the underlaying Salado halite. The reasoning for including 

these interbed segments is provided in the BRAGFLO analysis performed in support of CRA2004 (Stein & Zelinski 2003). Essentially, they are included to capture the impacts of brine and 

gas effectively bypassing the panel closure by flowing through the interbed layers. 

Now that the most salient features of the Option D implementation in BRAGFLO have been 

discussed, attention is given to the implementation of the ROMPCS in the PCS-2012 PA. The 

ROMPCS is comprised of 100 feet of run-of-mine (ROM) salt with barriers at each end, and is 

illustrated in Figure 3-3. The ROM salt is generated from ongoing mining operations at the 

WIPP and may be compacted and/or moistened as it is emplaced in a panel entry. The barriers 

consist of ventilation bulkheads, similar to those currently used in the panels as room closures. 

The ventilation bulkheads are designed to restrict air flows and prevent personnel access into 

waste-filled areas during the operational phase. In Panels 1, 2, and 5, where explosion walls 

fabricated from concrete blocks have already been emplaced in the panel entries, an explosion 

wall is the inner barrier and a ventilation bulkhead will be the outer barrier, as shown in Figure 

3-3(b). Explosion walls are inspected on a regular basis, and their anticipated condition is also 

assessed through numerical modeling (e.g. RockSol, 2006). Installed explosion walls show 

surface spalling or slabbing of the concrete blocks as a result of the loading caused by inward 

creep of the salt. Numerical stress analysis of the concrete explosion wall has demonstrated that 

the free faces and the rib contacts will be in a condition of plastic yield with an unyielded core by 

7 years after emplacement (Rocksol, 2006, Figures 7 and 10). No long term stress analyses have 

been carried out; however, it is expected that the spalling and yield will be progressive, and that 

the walls will not be significant structures after the initial 100 year time period, due to the brittle, 

non-plastic behavior of concrete. The ventilation bulkheads and explosion walls are therefore 

expected to have no significant impact on long-term performance of the panel closures and are 

therefore not included in the PCS-2012 PA representation of the ROMPCS. Consequently, the 

ROMPCS is modeled as consisting of 100 feet of ROM salt in the PCS-2012 PA. 

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(a) Panel closure with 100 feet of ROM salt between two ventilation bulkheads 

(b) Panel closure with 100 feet of ROM salt between a ventilation bulkhead & explosion wall 

The ROMPCS properties are based on three time periods: from 0 to 100 years, from 100 years to 

200 years, and from 200 years to 10,000 years. Three time periods are appropriate because the 

process to consolidate the ROM salt occurs over a primary time scale of approximately 100 

years, while the process to heal fractures in the DRZ surrounding the PCS occurs over a longer 

time scale of approximately 200 years. The ROM salt is therefore represented by three materials, 

denoted as PCS_T1 for the first 100 years, PCS_T2 from 100 to 200 years, and PCS_T3 for 200 

to 10,000 years. Analyses and calculations have shown (Camphouse et al 2012a) that the timedependent back stress imposed on the DRZ by the re-consolidated ROM salt panel closure does 

not become appreciable until roughly 200 years after emplacement of the ROM salt in the drift. 

As a result, it is reasonable and appropriate to maintain the same properties for the DRZ above 

and below the ROMPCS for the first 200 years after closure as are specified to the DRZ 

surrounding the disposal rooms. After 200 years, the DRZ above and below the ROMPCS is 

modeled as having healed, and this sub-region of the DRZ is represented by material DRZ_PCS. 

Material DRZ_PCS has the same property values in the PCS-2012 PA as were assigned to it in 

the PABC-2009. 

The 200-year delay of DRZ healing in the PCS-2012 PA is an important distinction between the 

panel closure representations used in the PABC-2009 and the PCS-2012 PA. As noted above, 

the Option D panel closure was modeled in the PABC-2009 (and prior analyses) as having an 

immediate healing effect on the DRZ above it, with material DRZ_PCS being in place at t = 0. 

In contrast, the ROMPCS in the PCS-2012 PA is modeled as having no healing effect on the 

DRZ until 200 years after panel closure emplacement. For the first 200 years, the DRZ above 

and below the ROMPCS is indistinguishable from the DRZ above and below the waste panels. 

Concrete

block wall

Figure 3-3: Schematic Diagram of the ROMPCS 

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The DRZ overall (PA parameter DRZ_1) has a permeability range varying from a minimum 

value of 3.98 x 10-20 m

2

 to a maximum of 3.16 x 10-13 m

2 in the x, y, and z directions. As a 

result, there is a path of increased permeability (on average) above and below panel closures in 

the PCS-2012 PA for the first 200 years as compared to the PABC-2009. An expected 

consequence of this increased permeability is an increase in brine and gas flow through the DRZ 

and around the panel closure for the first 200 years. In effect, the panel closures in the PCS-2012 

PA are “looser” than those implemented in the PABC-2009 for the first 200 years due to the 

higher permeability (on average) of the DRZ material above and below them. 

The temporal evolution of the ROMPCS in BRAGFLO for the PCS-2012 PA is illustrated in 

Figure 3-4 to Figure 3-6. As seen in Figure 3-4 and Figure 3-5, the only change in the 

BRAGFLO grid and material map for time periods 0 to 100 years and 100 to 200 years is the 

material used to represent the panel closure. Material PCS_T1 is used to represent the ROMPCS 

for years 0 to 100 while material PCS_T2 represents the panel closure for years 100 to 200. As 

discussed above, the ROMPCS is modeled as having no impact on the DRZ above and below the 

closure for the first 200 years after emplacement. For the first 200 years, the DRZ material 

above and below the closure in the BRAGFLO material map is the same as the material above 

and below other repository regions. After 200 years, the material used to represent the ROMPCS 

changes to PCS_T3, and the regions of healed DRZ above and below the closure is modeled by 

material DRZ_PCS, as shown in Figure 3-6. The repository representation shown in Figure 3-6 

is used for times between 200 years and the time of intrusion. The BRAGFLO grid and element 

maps corresponding to particular intrusion types are shown in Figure 3-7 and Figure 3-8. 

The Option D panel closure implemented in the PABC-2009 is 40 meters long, while the 

ROMPCS implemented in the PCS-2012 PA is 100 feet (30.48 meters) long. Consequently, the 

panel closure length is reduced to a value of 30.48 meters in the PCS-2012 PA, with panel 

closures represented by two elements in the x-direction, each 15.24 meters long. 

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Figure 3-4: PCS-2012 BRAGFLO Grid and Material Map, Years 0 to 100

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Figure 3-5: PCS-2012 BRAGFLO Grid and Material Map, Years 100 to 200 

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Figure 3-6: PCS-2012 BRAGFLO Grid and Material Map, Years 200 to Time of Intrusion 

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Figure 3-7: PCS-2012 BRAGFLO Grid and Material Map for an E1 Intrusion 

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Figure 3-8: PCS-2012 BRAGFLO Grid and Material Map for an E2 Intrusion 

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3.2 Panel Closure Parameterization 

Numerous parameters were specified for the Option D panel closure in the PABC-2009. Of note 

are those prescribed for the porosity and permeability of the Option D concrete monolith (PA 

material CONC_PCS) as well as the DRZ overall (PA material DRZ_1) and the region of healed 

DRZ above the panel closure (PA material DRZ_PCS). These parameters are listed in Table 1. 

Table 1: Option D Panel Closure Parameters Used in the PABC-2009 

Material Property Distribution Statistics 

CONC_PCS 

Porosity Constant 0.05 

PRMX (m2) 

Triangular 

Min = 2.0 x 10-21

PRMY (m2) Mean = 1.53 x 10-19

PRMZ (m2) Max = 1.0 x 10-17

DRZ_1 Porosity Cumulative 

Min = 0.0039 

Mean = 0.0211 

Max = 0.0548 

PRMX (m2) 

Uniform 

Min = 3.98 x 10-20

PRMY (m2) Mean = 1.0 x 10-16

PRMZ (m2) Max = 3.16 x 10-13

DRZ_PCS Porosity Cumulative 

Min = 0.0039 

Mean = 0.0211 

Max = 0.0548 

PRMX (m2) 

Triangular 

Min = 2.0 x 10-21

PRMY (m2) Mean = 1.53 x 10-19

PRMZ (m2) Max = 1.0 x 10-17

The full set of ROMPCS parameter values that are used in the PCS-2012 PA were developed in 

Camphouse et al (2012a), Patterson (2012), and Camphouse (2012b), with a discussion of 

BRAGFLO two-phase flow parameters given in Camphouse (2012c). As developed in 

Camphouse et al (2012a), permeability and porosity values are obtained through sampling for 

ROMPCS material PCS_T1. However, only porosity is sampled for materials PCS_T2 and 

PCS_T3. Sampled porosity values are then used to calculate permeability values for these 

materials according to the algorithm developed on page 15 of Camphouse et al (2012a). The 

algorithm used to calculate permeability from a sampled porosity value depends on an additional 

sampled parameter, quantity α in the algorithm developed in Camphouse et al (2012a). The 

name given to this additional parameter in the PCS-2012 PA is POR2PERM. Porosity and 

permeability ranges used for materials PCS_T1, PCS_T2, and PCS_T3 are shown in Table 2. As 

can be seen in that table, there is overlap in the porosity ranges specified for PCS_T1 and 

PCS_T2. This overlap could potentially result in an increase in panel closure porosity during the 

transition from PCS_T1 to PCS_T2 at 100 years, a non-physical result. To prevent this 

possibility, the porosity for PCS_T2 is conditionally sampled in the PCS-2012 PA such that 

PCS_T2:POROSITY ≤ PCS_T1:POROSITY (Camphouse 2012b). There is also overlap in the 

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porosity ranges specified for PCS_T2 and PCS_T3. To prevent physically unrealistic increases 

in porosity during the transition from PCS_T2 to PCS_T3 at 200 years, the porosity for PCS_T3 

is conditionally sampled so that PCS_T3:POROSITY ≤ PCS_T2:POROSITY. Similar 

constraints are placed on the calculated permeability values for PCS_T2 and PCS_T3. As can be 

seen in Table 2, a low sampled permeability value for PCS_T1 could be followed by a higher 

calculated permeability value for PCS_T2, dependent on the sampled PCS_T2 porosity and 

POR2PERM values. An instantaneous increase in panel closure permeability after 100 years of 

creep closure is an unrealistic occurrence. To prevent this non-physical result, the calculated 

permeability value for PCS_T2 is constrained in the PCS-2012 PA such that PCS_T2:PRMX ≤

PCS_T1:PRMX. The same is true for the calculated permeabilities in the y and z directions. A 

similar constraint is placed on the calculated permeability for PCS_T3 in order to prevent nonphysical instantaneous increases in panel closure permeability at 200 years. The constraint 

placed on the calculated permeability for PCS_T3 is that PCS_T3:PRMX ≤ PCS_T2:PRMX, and 

likewise in the x and y directions. 

Table 2: ROMPCS Parameters Used in the PCS-2012 PA 

Material Property Distribution Statistics 

PCS_T1 

Porosity Uniform 

Min = 0.066 

Mean = 0.1265 

Max = 0.187 

PRMX (m2) 

Uniform 

Min = 1.0 x 10-21

PRMY (m2) Mean = 3.16 x 10-17

PRMZ (m2) Max = 1.0 x 10-12

PCS_T2 Porosity Uniform 

Min = 0.025 

Mean = 0.05 

Max = 0.075 

POR2PERM Normal 

Min = -1.72 

Mean = 0.0 

Max = 1.72 

PRMX (m2) N/A – Permeability is 

calculated using the 

sampled Porosity and 

POR2PERM values 

Min = 1.44 x 10-21

PRMY (m2) 

PRMZ (m2) Max = 4.55 x 10-17

PCS_T3 Porosity Uniform 

Min = 0.001 

Mean = 0.05 

Max = 0.0519 

POR2PERM Normal 

Min = -1.72 

Mean = 0.0 

Max = 1.72 

PRMX (m2) N/A – Permeability is 

calculated using the 

sampled Porosity and 

POR2PERM values 

Min = 4.46 x 10-22

PRMY (m2) 

PRMZ (m2) Max = 1.47 x 10-17

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Distributions and statistics specified for materials DRZ_1 and DRZ_PCS are equal in the PABC2009 and the PCS-2012 PA. Useful insight can be obtained by examining the Option D 

parameters in Table 1 and those developed for the ROMPCS in Table 2. For the first 100 years, 

the minimum permeability value allowed for ROMPCS material PCS_T1 is 1.0 x 10-21 m

2

, 

comparable to the minimum value of 2.0 x 10-21 m

2 specified for the Option D concrete monolith. 

However, the maximum permeability value allowed for PCS_T1 is 1.0 x 10-12

 m

2

, which is 

significantly greater than the maximum value of 1.0 x 10-17 m

2

 allowed for the Option D 

monolith. Moreover, the permeability range for material PCS_T1 is comparable to the 

permeability range specified to the DRZ overall (material DRZ_1 in Table 1). The DRZ above 

and below the ROMPCS does not heal until 200 years after emplacement, while the DRZ above 

the Option D panel closure is modeled as healing immediately by material DRZ_PCS. 

Consequently, one would expect the larger permeabilities associated with PCS_T1 and DRZ_1 

to potentially result in increased brine and gas flow through the ROMPCS and the DRZ above 

and below it for the first 100 years when compared to the Option D panel closure. 

At 100 years, the ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T1 to PCS_T2. As seen in Table 1 

and Table 2, the range of calculated permeabilities for PCS_T2 is quite comparable to the 

permeability range assigned to the Option D concrete monolith. However, the DRZ above and 

below the ROMPCS remains unhealed from 100 to 200 years, providing a pathway of increased 

permeability above and below the panel closure as compared to Option D. As a result, one 

would expect the larger permeabilities (on average) above and below material PCS_T2 to 

potentially result in brine and gas flows through the upper and lower DRZ, effectively bypassing 

the ROMPCS. 

At 200 years, the ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T2 to PCS_T3 with the DRZ region 

above and below PCS_T3 represented as healed by material DRZ_PCS. Under this 

configuration, the range of calculated permeabilities for PCS_T3 is comparable to the 

permeability range assigned to the Option D monolith, with the minimum value calculated for 

PCS_T3 being roughly an order of magnitude less than the minimum CONC_PCS permeability 

value. As material DRZ_PCS represents regions of healed DRZ for both the ROMPCS and the 

Option D closure, the final ROMPCS configuration comprises a panel closure that is slightly 

“tighter” (on average) than the Option D case. 

3.2.1 Capillary Pressure Parameters 

Two-phase flow parameters for PCS_T1, PCS_T2, and PCS_T3 are given in Camphouse et al 

(2012a). Tables 7 and 8 of that document assign values of CAP_MOD = 2, PCT_A = 0.56 Pa, 

and PCT_EXP = -0.346 for materials PCS_T1, PCS_T2, and PCS_T3. These particular material 

parameters are associated with capillary pressure modeling in BRAGFLO. The values listed in 

Camphouse et al (2012a) were obtained from the parameter developments undertaken in the 

2006 PCS PA (Vugrin et al 2006), which also investigated regulatory compliance impacts of a 

panel closure redesign having a ROM salt component. Values of CAP_MOD = 2, PCT_A = 

0.56 Pa, and PCT_EXP = -0.346 were initially planned in the 2006 PCS PA, but were 

subsequently changed to values of 1, 0.0 Pa, and 0.0, respectively. This change was made to 

maintain consistency with the corresponding properties of the salt materials used in the original 

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shaft seal model (Vugrin and Dunagan 2006). These values (CAP_MOD = 1, PCT_A = 0.0 Pa, 

and PCT_EXP = 0.0) were also used for materials DRZ_1, DRZ_PCS, and the Option D 

material CONC_PCS in the PABC-2009. The PCS-2012 PA representation of the ROMPCS 

typically results in instantaneous changes in panel closure permeability at 100 and 200 years. 

Instantaneous changes in permeability, due to material changes in a grid region, cause difficulty 

in numerically satisfying the convergence criterion for the capillary pressure constraint equation 

used in BRAGFLO (Camphouse 2012c). Values of CAP_MOD = 2, PCT_A = 0.56 Pa, and 

PCT_EXP = -0.346 have not been used in BRAGFLO panel closure modeling since before 2002 

as these values cause BRAGFLO numerical difficulties. 

As discussed in Camphouse (2012c), values of CAP_MOD = 2, PCT_A = 0.56 Pa, and 

PCT_EXP = -0.346 for materials PCS_T1, PCS_T2, and PCS_T3 were expected to cause 

BRAGFLO numerical difficulties in the PCS-2012 PA. For the sake of brevity in what follows, 

denote these parameter values as Case 1. Denote values of CAP_MOD = 1, PCT_A = 0.0 Pa, 

and PCT_EXP = 0.0 for materials PCS_T1, PCS_T2, and PCS_T3 as Case 2. During the 

BRAGFLO testing phase of the PCS-2012 PA, sidebar calculations were performed to determine 

the computational feasibility of these two parameter cases. The results of these sidebar 

calculations are now briefly discussed. 

Using the PCS-2012 PA BRAGFLO grid and material map, the first 20 vectors of replicate 1 

were simulated using the parameter values of Case 1. The same was also done using the 

parameter values of Case 2. Every vector corresponding to Case 2 resulted in a 10,000-year 

BRAGFLO solution using default convergence criteria. On the other hand, 35% of vectors 

corresponding to Case 1 did not result in a 10,000-year BRAGFLO solution with default 

convergence criteria. Moreover, every vector corresponding to Case 1 required significantly 

more iterations in obtaining a BRAGFLO numerical solution. For most Case 1 vectors, several 

thousand additional iterations were required for vectors resulting in a 10,000-year BRAGFLO 

solution as compared to Case 2. For Case 1 vectors that did not yield 10,000-year solutions 

under default criteria, the maximum number of iterations allowed (20,000) were used with 

BRAGFLO exiting prior to the 10,000 year mark. The impact to computational time was 

substantial. For some Case 1 vectors, the time necessary to obtain a BRAGFLO solution 

increased by roughly a factor of 110 when compared to Case 2. For these reasons, it was 

determined that the parameters corresponding to Case 1 are not computationally feasible. As a 

result, values of CAP_MOD = 1, PCT_A = 0.0 Pa, and PCT_EXP = 0.0 are prescribed to 

materials PCS_T1, PCS_T2, and PCS_T3 in the PCS-2012 PA in order to have panel closure 

material consistency with the surrounding DRZ and salt properties of the original shaft seal 

model, as well as to prevent numerical difficulties in BRAGFLO. These values correspond to 

capillary pressure modeling being disabled for these materials (Camphouse 2012c). 

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4 SALADO FLOW MODELING METHODOLOGY 

The BRAGFLO software calculates the flow of brine and gas in the vicinity of the WIPP 

repository over a 10,000-year regulatory compliance period. The results of these calculations are 

used by other software to calculate potential radionuclide releases to the accessible environment. 

Some of the specific processes included in the BRAGFLO calculations include: 

• Brine and gas flow. 

• Pressure generation as a function of time and space. 

• Creep closure of the waste filled regions within the repository. 

• Physical changes (e.g. permeability and porosity) in the modeling domain over time. 

• Cumulative brine flow into and out of the repository and its subregions. 

There is significant uncertainty associated with characterizing the physical properties of geologic 

materials that influence these processes. WIPP PA addresses these uncertainties in two ways. 

Properties such as permeability and porosity are usually measured indirectly and vary 

significantly depending upon location. The uncertainty in particular physical property values is 

called subjective (epistemic) uncertainty. Subjective uncertainty can, in theory, be reduced by 

further study of the system. Subjective uncertainty is addressed within Salado flow modeling by 

the use of probability distributions for subjectively uncertain parameters. Multiple flow 

realizations are performed in which the values of uncertain parameters are sampled from their 

respective distributions. For subjectively uncertain, spatially distributed quantities, e.g. the 

permeability of the DRZ, one sampled value is used to specify a particular parameter value over 

its entire spatial extent in a single realization. To reduce the number of realizations required and 

to ensure that low probability (and possibly high consequence) combinations are represented, 

Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) is used to create the realizations. For the WIPP PA, the LHS 

software (Vugrin 2005) is used to create a “replicate” of 100 distinct parameter sets (“vectors”) 

that are sampled from the full range of parameter uncertainty. To ensure that the Latin 

Hypercube replicates are representative, a total of three replicates are run for a total of 300 

separate vectors. 

Another type of uncertainty encountered in WIPP PA is that of stochastic (aleatory) uncertainty 

associated with incomplete knowledge of future events. Unlike subjective uncertainty, stochastic 

uncertainty cannot be reduced by further study. WIPP PA addresses stochastic uncertainty by 

employing a Monte Carlo sampling technique on random futures. In this context, a future is 

defined as one possible sequence of events. During BRAGFLO calculations, stochastic 

uncertainty is addressed by defining a set of six scenarios for which brine and gas flow is 

calculated for each of the vectors generated by the LHS software. The total number of 

BRAGFLO simulations that have to be run for a WIPP PA calculation is 300 vectors times 6 

scenarios equaling 1,800 BRAGFLO simulations. 

The six scenarios used in the PCS-2012 PA are unchanged from those used for the 1996 CCA 

and the PABC-2009. No changes to BRAGFLO scenarios are needed to address the differences 

in the ROMPCS and the Option D panel closure. 

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Results obtained in the six scenarios from BRAGFLO are used to initialize flow and material 

properties in subsequent codes in the PA computational suite, e.g. in the calculation of direct 

brine releases. The intrusion types specified in PA code calculations subsequent to BRAGFLO 

are the same as those implemented in BRAGFLO. The intrusion times, however, are not always 

equal. To avoid confusion resulting from the use of identical scenario notation for scenarios with 

unequal intrusion times in the various PA codes, the scenarios in BRAGFLO are denoted as S1-

BF to S6-BF. The scenarios include one undisturbed scenario (S1-BF), four scenarios that 

include a single inadvertent future drilling intrusion into the repository during the 10,000 year 

regulatory period (S2-BF to S5-BF), and one scenario investigating the effect of two intrusions 

into a single waste panel (S6-BF). Two types of intrusions, denoted as E1 and E2, are 

considered. An E1 intrusion assumes the borehole passes through a waste-filled panel and into a 

pressurized brine pocket that may exist under the repository in the Castile formation. An E2 

intrusion assumes that the borehole passes through the repository but does not encounter a brine 

pocket. Scenarios S2-BF and S3-BF model the effect of an E1 intrusion occurring at 350 years 

and 1000 years, respectively, after the repository is closed. Scenarios S4-BF and S5-BF model 

the effect of an E2 intrusion at 350 and 1000 years. Scenario S6-BF models an E2 intrusion 

occurring at 1000 years, followed by an E1 intrusion into the same panel at 2000 years. 

BRAGFLO results obtained in Scenario S6-BF are used to calculate transport releases to the 

Culebra. Transport releases from the Culebra obtained in the PABC-2009 are also used in the 

PCS-2012 PA. Results from BRAGFLO scenario S6-BF are briefly discussed in this report to 

justify the appropriateness of PABC-2009 Culebra transport calculations for the PCS-2012 PA. 

Table 3 summarizes the six scenarios used in this analysis. 

Table 3: BRAGFLO Modeling Scenarios 

Scenario Description 

S1-BF Undisturbed Repository 

S2-BF E1 intrusion at 350 years 

S3-BF E1 intrusion at 1,000 years 

S4-BF E2 intrusion at 350 years 

S5-BF E2 intrusion at 1,000 years 

S6-BF E2 intrusion at 1,000 years; E1 intrusion at 2,000 years. 

4.1 Initial Conditions 

BRAGFLO simulation of the six scenarios listed above requires the assignment of initial 

conditions including brine pressure, brine saturation, and concentrations of iron and 

biodegradable material. These initial conditions are provided to BRAGFLO through various preprocessing steps during which values are extracted or sampled from the WIPP PA Performance 

Assessment Parameter Database. 

At the beginning of each BRAGFLO run (scenario-vector combination), the model simulates a 

short period of time representing disposal operations. This portion of the run is called the 

initialization period and lasts for 5 years (from t = -5 to 0 years), corresponding to the time a 

typical waste panel is expected to be open during disposal operations. All grid blocks require 

initial pressure and saturation at the beginning of the run (t = -5 years). At the beginning of the 

regulatory period (0 to 10,000 years), BRAGFLO resets initial conditions within the excavated 

regions and in the shaft. 

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The initial conditions specified for BRAGFLO modeling are listed below: 

• Brine pressure in all non-excavated regions is equal to lithostatic pressure. This pressure 

is sampled at a single location and assumed hydrostatic at all other locations. 

• Pressure within excavated regions is set to one atmosphere (1.01325 x 105

 Pa) at t = -5 

years. 

• At t = 0 years, pressure in the excavated waste regions is increased to 1.28039 x 105 Pa in 

order to account for the pressure increase (0.26714 x 105 Pa) associated with microbial 

gas produced at short times (see Subsection 4.2.1 of Nemer et al. 2005). 

• Brine saturation within the non-excavated regions is set to 1.0. 

• Brine saturation within the excavated regions is set to a value of 0 at t = -5 years. 

• Brine saturation in the excavated regions at t = 0 is prescribed the following values: 

o 0.015 for the excavated waste regions, which was chosen to be conservative with 

respect to the WIPP Waste Acceptance Criteria which allows waste to come to 

WIPP with no more than 1 % liquids by volume (see Subsection 3.4.1 of DOE 

2007). 

o 0.0 for the operations and experimental areas 

o 0.9999999 for the concrete portion of the shaft. 

o For each vector, the initial brine saturation of ROMPCS material PCS_T1 is 

assigned a sampled value obtained from a uniform distribution with a minimum of 

0.04 and a maximum of 0.16 (Camphouse 2012b). 

During the initialization period brine tends to flow into the excavated areas and the shaft, 

resulting in decreased pressure and saturation in the rock immediately adjacent to the 

excavations. At time t = 0 the pressure and saturation in all the excavations is reset to initial 

conditions for the materials used to represent these regions for the regulatory period. This 

practice is intended to capture the effect of evaporation of brine inflow during the operational 

period and the transport of this brine up the shaft ventilation system, as well as the 

depressurization of the surrounding rock formations due to excavation. 

4.2 Boundary Conditions 

The boundary conditions assigned for the BRAGFLO calculations in the PCS-2012 PA are the 

same as those for the PABC-2009. 

• Constant pressure at the north and south ends of the Culebra and Magenta dolomites. 

• Constant pressure (1.01325 x 105

 Pa) and saturation (0.08363) conditions at the land 

surface boundary of the grid, except at the shaft cell on the land surface boundary 

(Vaughn 1996). The saturation in this cell is set along with the rest of the shaft to the 

initial saturation prescribed in the WIPP parameter database (SAT_IBRN) for each of the 

respective shaft materials. 

• No-flow conditions at all other grid boundaries. 

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5 RUN CONTROL 

Run control, including code versions used and descriptions of code sequencing used to obtain 

BRAGFLO results in the PCS-2012 PA, is documented in Camphouse et al (2012b). PCS-2012 

PA results obtained in the BRAGFLO post-processing step have file names 

ALG2_BF_AP161_Rr_Ss_Vvvv.CDB, where r (the replicate number) equals 1,2, or 3, s (the 

scenario number) equals 1,2,3,4,5, or 6, and vvv (the vector number) is between 001 and 100. 

These files are located in CMS library LIBAP161_BFRrSs under class AP161-0. PABC-2009 

results obtained in the BRAGFLO post-processing step have file names 

ALG2_BF_PABC09_Rr_Ss_Vvvv.CDB, and are located in CMS library LIBPABC09_BFRrSs 

under class PABC09-0. 

6 RESULTS 

Computed results are now presented for the PCS-2012 PA and compared with those obtained in 

the PABC-2009. In the following sections, results are presented in terms of volume-averaged 

quantities such as volume-averaged pressure. Volume-averaged pressure is given by forming the 

product of grid block pressure and grid block volume for each grid block in the region of 

concern, summing this product up over all grid blocks in the region, and dividing by the bulk 

volume of the region. All other volume-averaged quantities are computed in the same manner. 

Cumulative flow volumes are also presented. Cumulative flow into a region is defined as the 

time-dependent flow into a region integrated over time. In the results that follow, the routine 

calculation of means and generation of plots were done with Matlab version R2008a, a 

Commercial off-the Shelf (COTS) software package. As discussed previously, Scenario S1-BF 

represents undisturbed repository conditions. Scenarios S2-BF through S6-BF capture 

consequences of drilling intrusions into the repository. The impact on repository performance 

following an intrusion through the repository and into a pressurized brine pocket in the Castile 

(an E1 event) are considered in Scenarios S2-BF and S3-BF. Drilling intrusions that do not 

encounter pressurized Castile brine (an E2 event) are considered in scenarios S4-BF and S5-BF. 

Transport releases to the Culebra are captured in Scenario S6-BF. Scenario S6-BF is used for 

determining the radionuclide source term to the Culebra in the PA code PANEL, and results of 

this BRAGFLO scenario are briefly discussed. The particular mechanics of each scenario are 

shown below. Note that the ROMPCS implemented in the PCS-2012 PA, as well as materials 

used to represent the shaft, attain their long-term permeability values at 200 years, well before 

the occurrence of any of the waste panel intrusions in scenarios S2-BF to S6-BF. 

Scenario S1-BF (Undisturbed Conditions) 

0 years: ROMPCS represented by material PCS_T1 with no healing of the DRZ above 

and below the panel closure. 

100 years: ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T1 to PCS_T2 with no healing of 

the DRZ above and below the panel closure. 

200 years: ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T2 to PCS_T3 with healed regions 

of DRZ above and below the panel closure represented by material DRZ_PCS. Lower 

shaft material properties are changed. 

 

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Scenario S2-BF (E1 intrusion at 350 years) 

0 years: ROMPCS represented by material PCS_T1 with no healing of the DRZ above 

and below the panel closure. 

100 years: ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T1 to PCS_T2 with no healing of 

the DRZ above and below the panel closure. 

200 years: ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T2 to PCS_T3 with healed regions 

of DRZ above and below the panel closure represented by material DRZ_PCS. Lower 

shaft material properties are changed. 

350 years: Borehole intrusion through the Waste Panel and into a hypothetical 

pressurized brine reservoir in the underlying Castile Formation, with the borehole 

represented by material BH_OPEN. Concrete borehole plugs, represented by material 

CONC_PLG, immediately emplaced in the borehole below the Culebra and at the 

surface. 

550 years: Borehole plugs fail, and the entire borehole is modeled as having properties 

equivalent to sand. The borehole, bottom to top, is represented by material BH_SAND. 

1550 years: The permeability of the borehole between the repository and the Castile 

brine reservoir decreases due to creep closure of the salt. The lower borehole is 

represented by material BH_CREEP as a result. 

Scenario S3-BF (E1 intrusion at 1000 years) 

0 years: ROMPCS represented by material PCS_T1 with no healing of the DRZ above 

and below the panel closure. 

100 years: ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T1 to PCS_T2 with no healing of 

the DRZ above and below the panel closure. 

200 years: ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T2 to PCS_T3 with healed regions 

of DRZ above and below the panel closure represented by material DRZ_PCS. Lower 

shaft material properties are changed. 

1000 years: Borehole intrusion through the Waste Panel and into a hypothetical 

pressurized brine reservoir in the underlying Castile Formation, with the borehole 

represented by material BH_OPEN. Concrete borehole plugs, represented by material 

CONC_PLG, immediately emplaced in the borehole below the Culebra and at the 

surface. 

1200 years: Borehole plugs fail, and the entire borehole is modeled as having properties 

equivalent to sand. The borehole, bottom to top, is represented by material BH_SAND. 

2200 years: The permeability of the borehole between the repository and the Castile 

brine reservoir decreases due to creep closure of the salt. The lower borehole is 

represented by material BH_CREEP as a result. 

Scenario S4-BF (E2 intrusion at 350 years) 

0 years: ROMPCS represented by material PCS_T1 with no healing of the DRZ above 

and below the panel closure. 

100 years: ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T1 to PCS_T2 with no healing of 

the DRZ above and below the panel closure. 

200 years: ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T2 to PCS_T3 with healed regions 

of DRZ above and below the panel closure represented by material DRZ_PCS. Lower 

shaft material properties are changed. 

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350 years: Borehole intrusion terminating at the floor of the Waste Panel, with the 

borehole represented by material BH_OPEN. Concrete borehole plugs, represented by 

material CONC_PLG, immediately emplaced in the borehole below the Culebra and at 

the surface. 

550 years: Borehole plugs fail, and the entire borehole is modeled as having properties 

equivalent to sand. The borehole, bottom to top, is represented by material BH_SAND. 

Scenario S5-BF (E2 intrusion at 1000 years) 

0 years: ROMPCS represented by material PCS_T1 with no healing of the DRZ above 

and below the panel closure. 

100 years: ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T1 to PCS_T2 with no healing of 

the DRZ above and below the panel closure. 

200 years: ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T2 to PCS_T3 with healed regions 

of DRZ above and below the panel closure represented by material DRZ_PCS. Lower 

shaft material properties are changed. 

1000 years: Borehole intrusion terminating at the floor of the Waste Panel, with the 

borehole represented by material BH_OPEN. Concrete borehole plugs, represented by 

material CONC_PLG, immediately emplaced in the borehole below the Culebra and at 

the surface. 

1200 years: Borehole plugs fail, and the entire borehole is modeled as having properties 

equivalent to sand. The borehole, bottom to top, is represented by material BH_SAND. 

Scenario S6-BF (E2 intrusion at 1000 years, E1 intrusion at 2000 years) 

0 years: ROMPCS represented by material PCS_T1 with no healing of the DRZ above 

and below the panel closure. 

100 years: ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T1 to PCS_T2 with no healing of 

the DRZ above and below the panel closure. 

200 years: ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T2 to PCS_T3 with healed regions 

of DRZ above and below the panel closure represented by material DRZ_PCS. Lower 

shaft material properties are changed. 

1000 years: Borehole intrusion terminating at the floor of the Waste Panel, with the 

borehole represented by material BH_OPEN. Concrete borehole plugs, represented by 

material CONC_PLG, immediately emplaced in the borehole below the Culebra and at 

the surface. 

1200 years: Borehole plugs fail, and the entire borehole is modeled as having properties 

equivalent to sand. The borehole, bottom to top, is represented by material BH_SAND. 

2000 years: A second borehole intrusion connects the waste panel to a hypothetical 

pressurized brine reservoir in the underlying Castile Formation. The lower borehole is 

represented by material BH_OPEN. 

2200 years: The lower borehole is modeled as having properties equivalent to sand, and 

is represented by material BH_SAND. 

3200 years: The permeability of the borehole between the repository and the Castile 

brine reservoir decreases due to creep closure of the salt. The lower borehole is 

represented by material BH_CREEP as a result. 

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6.1.1 Results for an Undisturbed Repository (Scenario S1-BF) 

Results are now presented for undisturbed scenario S1-BF. For the sake of brevity in what 

follows, waste area results are discussed in terms of the waste panel. Trends discussed for the 

waste panel also apply to other repository waste areas. 

A horsetail plot of cumulative brine flow into the waste panel, denoted by quantity BRNWASIC, 

is given in Figure 6-3. The horsetail plot shown in Figure 6-3 is assembled using all 300 

scenario S1-BF vectors. Replicate means of BRNWASIC, as well as the overall BRNWASIC 

mean calculated over all 300 vectors, are shown in Figure 6-4. As seen in that figure, there is 

close agreement between the three replicate means, as well as the overall mean, of cumulative 

brine inflow to the waste panel. 

The PCS-2012 PA overall mean of cumulative brine flow into the waste panel is compared to the 

PABC-2009 overall mean of the same quantity in Figure 6-5. As seen in that figure, there is an 

increase in the mean cumulative brine flow into the waste panel in the PCS-2012 PA as 

compared to the PABC-2009. As discussed in Section 3.2, the permeability range assigned to 

the ROMPCS during the first 100 years is comparable to the permeability range of the DRZ 

overall. The Option D concrete monolith, however, is much less permeable than the DRZ (on 

average). Moreover, the DRZ above the Option D panel closure heals immediately and is 

assigned the same permeability range prescribed to the concrete monolith. As the DRZ remains 

unhealed for the first 200 years in the ROMPCS model, there is a path of increased permeability 

through and around the ROMPCS for the first 100 years as compared to the Option D closure. 

The result is an increase in cumulative brine flow toward the waste panel during that time period. 

For 100 to 200 years, the permeability range prescribed to the ROMPCS is comparable to the 

range assigned to the Option D concrete monolith. The DRZ above and below the ROMPCS 

remains unhealed during this time period, however. The result is a path of increased 

permeability (on average) above and below the ROMPCS as compared to the Option D case, 

with a corresponding increase in cumulative brine flow into the waste panel. After 200 years, the 

DRZ above and below the ROMPCS is modeled as having healed by material DRZ_PCS, 

resulting in a final ROMPCS configuration that is slightly “tighter” on average than the Option D 

case. Consequently, the majority of the increase in quantity BRNWASIC for the PCS-2012 PA 

occurs during the first 200 years. The increase during the first 200 years is readily apparent in 

Figure 6-6, where the time scale used to plot BRNWASIC overall means is restricted to the first 

1,000 years. As seen in that figure, the difference in the overall means obtained in the two 

analyses increases steadily until 200 years. At 200 years, the ROMPCS assumes its long-term 

properties with the DRZ healed above and below it. At 200 years in the PCS-2012 PA 

BRNWASIC overall mean in Figure 6-6, the rate of increase decreases sharply. At 200 years, 

the difference between the BRNWASIC overall means obtained in the two analyses is roughly 

600 m3

, and this difference between the overall means remains fairly constant for the remainder 

of the regulatory period. 

The impact of panel closure material and the DRZ around it is made more evident by examining 

the cumulative volume of brine flowing out of a panel closure plane and toward the waste panel. 

The name given for this quantity is BNWPSPCS (brine toward the waste panel, south from the 

panel closure system). The schematics shown in Figure 6-1 and Figure 6-2 illustrate how this 

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quantity is calculated. In both of those figures, the southernmost panel closure plane is 

illustrated by a red vertical line. For both the PCS-2012 PA and the PABC-2009, this line 

intersects the waste panel/panel closure interface, and extends from the intact halite below the 

repository to the intact halite above it. Quantity BNWPSPCS is a cumulative tally of southward 

brine flow between the regions of intact halite below and above the repository and toward the 

region of intact halite immediately south of the repository. In the schematics shown in Figure 

6-1 and Figure 6-2, brine flows used to calculate BNWPSPCS are right-to-left across the panel 

closure planes denoted by the red vertical lines. Note that Figure 6-1 shows the representation of 

the ROMPCS for the first 100 years. The ROMPCS southernmost panel closure plane is defined 

at the same location as in Figure 6-1 for years 100 to 200 and years 200 to 10,000. 

Figure 6-1: PCS-2012 PA Definition of Cumulative Flow toward the Waste Panel, 

across the Southernmost Panel Closure Plane 

Intact Halite

Intact Halite

MB 138

Anhydrite AB

MB 139

Intact Halite

Intact Halite

Waste Panel SROR NROR

Upper DRZ

Lower DRZ

MB 138

Anhydrite AB

CONC_PCS

MB 139

DRZ_PCS

DRF_PCS

Figure 6-2: PABC-2009 Definition of Cumulative Flow toward the Waste Panel, 

across the Southernmost Panel Closure Plane 

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Figure 6-7 shows the overall means of quantity BNWPSPCS for both the PCS-2012 PA and the 

PABC-2009. As seen in that figure, there is an increase in the BNWPSPCS overall mean in the 

PCS-2012 PA as compared to the PABC-2009. This increase is attributed to the increased 

permeability of the ROMPCS, and the DRZ above and below it, for the first 200 years as 

compared to Option D. Figure 6-8 shows overall means of quantity BNWPSPCS with the time 

scale restricted to the first 1,000 years. As seen in that figure, the rate of increase in the overall 

mean of BNWPSPCS for the PCS-2012 PA decreases slightly at 100 years. At 100 years, The 

ROMPCS model transitions from material PCS_T1 to PCS_T2. The reduction in the 

permeability range for material PCS_T2 has a slight reducing effect on the rate of increase of 

BNWPSPCS. At 200 years, the ROMPCS material transitions from PCS_T2 to PCS_T3 with 

the DRZ above and below the panel closure modeled as healed by material DRZ_PCS. In Figure 

6-8, there is a sharp change in slope in the PCS-2012 PA BNWPSPCS overall mean at 200 years. 

Brine flow southward out of the southernmost panel closure plane is effectively stopped by the 

ROMPCS and healed DRZ, resulting in no increase to the BNWPSPCS overall mean for a period 

of time after 200 years. The difference between the BNWPSPCS overall means seen in the PCS2012 PA and the PABC-2009 is roughly 550 m3

 after 200 years. This volume of brine 

corresponds very closely to the difference seen in the cumulative brine flow into the waste panel 

(Figure 6-6) after 200 years, indicating that the increase of cumulative brine flow into the waste 

panel is primarily due to the increase of brine flow through and around the ROMPCS for the first 

200 years as compared to Option D. 

The increase of brine flow into the waste panel results in a corresponding increase in the waste 

panel brine saturation, denoted by quantity WAS_SATB. A horsetail plot of waste panel brine 

saturation calculated in the PCS-2012 PA is shown Figure 6-9. The horsetail plot shown in that 

figure is assembled using all 300 realizations of waste panel brine saturation. The three 

individual replicate means, as well as the overall mean, of WAS_SATB are shown in Figure 

6-10. As seen in that figure, there is very close agreement among the PCS-2012 PA replicate 

means as well as the overall mean. 

The overall means for WAS_SATB obtained in the PCS-2012 PA and the PABC-2009 are 

plotted together in Figure 6-11. As seen in that figure, there is an increase in the mean for 

WAS_SATB in the PCS-2012 PA as compared to the PABC-2009. The increase in brine inflow 

to the waste panel during the first 200 years translates to an increase in the waste panel brine 

saturation. The impact of the ROMPCS temporal evolution on the waste panel brine saturation is 

more clearly seen in Figure 6-12. In that figure, overall means of WAS_SATB obtained in the 

two analyses are plotted together with the time scale restricted to the first 1,000 years. As seen 

in that figure, the overall mean for WAS_SATB obtained in the PCS-2012 PA increases at a 

higher rate than the mean calculated in the PABC-2009 for the first 200 years. At 200 years, the 

ROMPCS and the DRZ above and below it assume their long-term properties. At 200 years in 

Figure 6-12, the rate of increase in the WAS_SATB mean curve obtained in the PCS-2021 PA 

decreases sharply. Beyond 200 years, the WAS_SATB overall means obtained in the two 

analyses are qualitatively very similar with differences seen in the magnitude of the respective 

curves primarily due to increases seen in the PCS-2012 PA during the first 200 years. 

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Increases in waste panel brine inflow and brine saturation potentially impact waste panel gas 

generation, denoted by quantity GASMOL_W. The horsetail plot of waste panel gas generation 

(in moles), assembled over all 300 vectors, for the PCS-2012 PA is shown in Figure 6-13. The 

three individual replicate means, as well as the overall mean, are shown in Figure 6-14. As seen 

in that figure, there is close agreement between the replicate and overall means for 

GASMOL_W. Overall means of waste panel gas generation obtained in the PCS-2012 PA and 

the PABC-2009 are plotted together in Figure 6-15. As seen in that figure, the overall mean for 

gas generated in the waste panel increased in the PCS-2012 PA. The increases seen in the mean 

waste panel brine inflow and mean waste panel brine saturation in the PCS-2012 PA result in a 

corresponding increase in waste panel gas generation. 

The temporal evolution of the ROMPCS and the changes to waste panel gas generation seen in 

the PCS-2012 PA impact the waste panel pressure, denoted by quantity WAS_PRES. The 

horsetail plot for WAS_PRES, assembled over all 300 vectors, is shown in Figure 6-16. The 

three WAS_PRES replicate means, as well as the overall mean, are shown together in Figure 

6-17. As seen in that figure, there is very close agreement between the replicate means and the 

overall mean of waste panel pressure. 

Overall means of waste panel pressure obtained in the PCS-2012 PA and the PABC-2009 are 

shown together in Figure 6-18. As seen in that figure, there is a long-term increase in the mean 

waste panel pressure obtained in the PCS-2012 PA as compared to the PABC-2009. The 

increase in waste panel gas generation seen in the PCS-2012 PA results in a long-term increase 

in the waste panel mean pressure. The combined impacts of the ROMPCS temporal evolution 

and increased waste panel gas generation are more closely seen in Figure 6-19. In that figure, 

the overall means of waste panel pressure obtained in the PCS-2012 PA and the PABC-2009 are 

plotted together with the time scale restricted to the first 1,000 years. As seen in that figure, the 

PCS-2012 PA mean waste panel pressure is lower than that obtained in the PABC-2009 at early 

times. The higher permeability (on average) of the ROMPCS for the first 100 years, and the 

DRZ above and below it for the first 200 years, allows for increased release of pressure from the 

waste panel as compared to Option D. After the ROMPCS assumes its long-term properties at 

200 years, with the DRZ modeled as healed above and below it, the PCS-2012 PA mean waste 

panel pressure curve steadily increases, eventually becoming greater than the PABC-2009 mean 

waste panel pressure curve. The combination of a “tighter” panel closure after 200 years and 

increased gas generation in the waste panel translates to an eventual increase in the PCS-2012 

PA mean waste panel pressure. 

The release of pressure from repository waste areas at early times to other repository regions can 

be clearly seen in Figure 6-20 and Figure 6-21. As seen in Figure 6-20, the mean pressure in the 

operations area, denoted by quantity OPS_PRES, is greater in the PCS-2012 PA at early times 

when compared to the PABC-2009. The same is also true for the mean pressure in the 

experimental area (Figure 6-21). After the ROMPCS and the DRZ above and below it assume 

their long-term properties at 200 years, the rate of pressure release from repository waste areas 

into the operations and experimental regions decreases. The “tighter” characteristics of the 

ROMPCS after 200 years results in less pressure being released to the experimental and 

operations regions as compared to Option D. The result is an eventual decrease in the mean 

pressure in these regions when compared to PABC-2009 results. 

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As seen in the BRAGFLO schematics of Figure 3-2 and Figure 3-4 to Figure 3-8, the base of the 

repository shaft is modeled in WIPP PA as being directly between the operations and 

experimental regions. Consequently, the pressure in these two regions impacts the volume of 

brine moved up the shaft toward the ground surface. The horsetail plot of the volume of brine 

flowing up the shaft, denoted by quantity BNSHUDRZ, is shown in Figure 6-22. The three 

BNSHUDRZ replicate means obtained in the PCS-2012 PA, and the overall mean obtained for 

this quantity, are plotted together in Figure 6-23. As seen in that figure, there is good agreement 

between the means obtained for brine flow up the shaft in the PCS-2012 PA. The overall means 

of brine flow up the shaft obtained in the PCS-2012 PA and the PABC-2009 are shown together 

in Figure 6-24. As seen in that figure, the trends for brine flow up the shaft correspond closely to 

pressure trends in the operations and experimental areas. At early times, an increase is seen in 

the mean volume of brine flow up the shaft in the PCS-2012 PA. Eventually, however, the mean 

brine flow up the shaft is reduced in the PCS-2012 PA results, primarily due to the reductions in 

the mean pressure seen in the operations and experimental areas after the ROMPCS and 

surrounding DRZ assume their long-term properties. 

Summary statistics for scenario S1-BF are shown in Table 4. 

Table 4: Summary Statistics for Scenario S1-BF 

Quantity 

(units) 

Mean Value Maximum Value 

PABC-2009 PCS-2012 PA PABC-2009 PCS-2012 PA

BRNWASIC 

(x103

 m3) 1.78 2.38 12.46 16.67 

WAS_SATB 

(none) 0.16 0.20 0.99 0.99 

GASMOL_W 

(x106 moles) 29.09 30.84 148.40 149.00 

WAS_PRES 

(MPa) 6.52 6.77 16.19 16.29 

BNSHUDRZ 

(m3) 2.74 2.46 34.76 32.11 

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Figure 6-3: Horsetail Plot of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S1-BF. 

Figure 6-4: Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S1-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Time (years)

BRNWASIC (m3)

Scenario S1-BF

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Time (years)

BRNWASIC (m3)

Scenario S1-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

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Figure 6-5: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S1-BF. 

Figure 6-6: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S1-BF and 

Years 0 to 1,000. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Time (years)

BRNWASIC (m3)

Scenario S1-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

Time (years)

BRNWASIC (m3)

Scenario S1-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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Figure 6-7: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Flow Southward from the Panel Closure Plane 

and toward the Waste Panel, Scenario S1-BF 

Figure 6-8: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Flow Southward from the Panel Closure Plane 

and toward the Waste Panel, Scenario S1-BF and Years 0 to 1,000. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Time (years)

BNWPSPCS (m3)

Scenario S1-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Time (years)

BNWPSPCS (m3)

Scenario S1-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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Figure 6-9: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S1-BF. 

Figure 6-10: Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S1-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Time (years)

WAS_SATB

Scenario S1-BF

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Time (years)

WAS_SATB

Scenario S1-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

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Figure 6-11: Overall Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S1-BF. 

Figure 6-12: Overall Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S1-BF and Years 0 to 

1,000. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Time (years)

WAS_SATB

Scenario S1-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Time (years)

WAS_SATB

Scenario S1-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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Figure 6-13: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S1-BF. 

Figure 6-14: Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S1-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

5

10

15

x 107

Time (years)

GASMOL_W (moles)

Scenario S1-BF

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

x 107

Time (years)

GASMOL_W (moles)

Scenario S1-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

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Figure 6-15: Overall Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S1-BF. 

Figure 6-16: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S1-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

x 107

Time (years)

GASMOL_W (moles)

Scenario S1-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

x 106

Time (years)

WAS_PRES (Pa)

Scenario S1-BF

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Figure 6-17: Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S1-BF. 

Figure 6-18: Overall Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S1-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

x 106

Time (years)

WAS_PRES (Pa)

Scenario S1-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

x 106

Time (years)

WAS_PRES (Pa)

Scenario S1-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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Figure 6-19: Overall Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S1-BF and Years 0 to 1,000. 

Figure 6-20: Overall Means of Pressure in the Operations Region, Scenario S1-BF. 

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

x 106

Time (years)

WAS_PRES (Pa)

Scenario S1-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

x 106

Time (years)

OPS_PRES (Pa)

Scenario S1-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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Figure 6-21: Overall Means of Pressure in the Experimental Region, Scenario S1-BF. 

Figure 6-22: Horsetail Plot of Brine Flow up the Shaft, Scenario S1-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

x 106

Time (years)

EXP_PRES (Pa)

Scenario S1-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Time (years)

BNSHUDRZ (m3)

Scenario S1-BF

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Figure 6-23: Means of Brine Flow up the Shaft, Scenario S1-BF. 

Figure 6-24: Overall Means of Brine Flow up the Shaft, Scenario S1-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Time (years)

BNSHUDRZ (m3)

Scenario S1-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Time (years)

BNSHUDRZ (m3)

Scenario S1-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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6.1.2 Results for an E1 Intrusion at 350 Years (Scenario S2-BF) 

Results are now presented for disturbance scenario S2-BF. Results presented for this scenario 

are representative of those calculated for E1 intrusion scenarios (scenarios S2-BF and S3-BF), 

with the only difference being the time of the intrusion. In the results that follow, PCS-2012 PA 

trends discussed for scenario S2-BF also apply to scenario S3-BF. 

The fundamental characteristic of an E1 intrusion is the creation of a connected pathway between 

the repository waste panel and a region of pressurized brine in the Castile. Castile brine moves 

upward into the waste panel immediately after the intrusion, increasing waste panel pressure, 

brine saturation, and impacting other waste panel quantities. 

A horsetail plot of waste panel pressure obtained for scenario S2-BF in the PCS-2012 PA is 

shown in Figure 6-25. The three replicate means, as well as the overall mean, of waste panel 

pressure for this scenario are shown in Figure 6-26. As seen in that figure, there is good 

agreement among the means of waste panel pressure obtained in the PCS-2012 PA. 

The overall means of waste panel pressure obtained in the PCS-2012 PA and the PABC-2009 for 

scenario S2-BF are plotted together in Figure 6-27. As seen in that figure, the mean waste panel 

pressure calculated in the PCS-2012 PA is greater than that found in the PABC-2009 for a period 

of time after the intrusion. As discussed previously, the long-term permeability range of the 

ROMPCS is lower than that prescribed to the Option D design in the PABC-2009. This 

reduction results in less long-term brine and gas flow through the ROMPCS, away from the 

waste panel, as compared to Option D. Following the E1 intrusion at 350 years, the “tighter” 

ROMPCS design results in a period of increased waste panel pressurization as compared to the 

PABC-2009 results. 

An increase in waste panel pressure potentially impacts the volume of cumulative brine inflow to 

the waste panel. The horsetail plot of quantity BRNWASIC for PCS-2012 PA scenario S2-BF is 

shown in Figure 6-28. The three replicate means, as well as the overall mean, are shown in 

Figure 6-29. As seen in that figure, there is fairly close agreement between the means obtained 

for cumulative waste panel brine inflow. The overall means of BRNWASIC obtained in the 

PCS-2012 PA and the PABC-2009 are shown together in Figure 6-30. As seen in that figure, the 

increased permeability range of the ROMPCS at early times results in greater brine inflow to the 

waste panel before the ROMPCS attains its long-term properties at 200 years. Following the 

intrusion time of 350 years, an increase in mean waste panel pressure occurs in the PCS-2012 PA 

results. This pressure increase slightly inhibits brine flow into the waste panel, resulting in a 

reduction in cumulative waste panel brine inflow as compared to the PABC-2009 results. 

 

The reduction of brine flowing into the waste panel in the PCS-2012 PA impacts the waste panel 

brine saturation. The horsetail plot of waste panel brine saturation obtained in PCS-2012 PA 

scenario S2-BF is shown in Figure 6-31. The three replicate means, and the overall mean, of 

WAS_SATB are shown together in Figure 6-32. As seen in that figure, there is very close 

agreement between the replicate means and the overall mean of waste panel brine saturation. 

The overall means of quantity WAS_SATB obtained in the PCS-2012 PA and the PABC-2009 

are shown together in Figure 6-33. As is evident in that figure, the mean waste panel brine 

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saturation obtained in the PCS-2012 PA is reduced slightly from that calculated in the PABC2009 after the intrusion at 350 years. The reduction of brine inflow to the waste panel translates 

to a reduction in waste panel brine saturation. 

A horsetail plot of waste panel gas generation (in moles) is given in Figure 6-34. The three 

replicate means, and the overall mean, for quantity GASMOL_W are shown together in Figure 

6-35. As seen in that figure, there is very good agreement among the scenario S2-BF means 

obtained for waste panel gas generation in the PCS-2012 PA. The overall means of waste panel 

gas generation obtained in the PCS-2012 PA and the PABC-2009 are shown together in Figure 

6-36. The overall means obtained for quantity GASMOL_W obtained in the two analyses are 

nearly identical, with a very slight reduction seen in the PCS-2012 PA mean. This slight 

reduction in gas generation is most likely due to the reduction in waste panel brine inflow and 

brine saturation seen in the PCS-2012 PA results. 

The volume of brine flow up the intrusion borehole is denoted by quantity BNBHUDRZ. The 

horsetail plot of quantity BNBHUDRZ is shown in Figure 6-37. The three replicate means, and 

the overall mean for quantity BNBHUDRZ, are shown together in Figure 6-38. As seen in that 

figure, there is variability among the PCS-2012 PA means obtained for quantity BNBHUDRZ. 

The means obtained in the PCS-2012 PA are almost identical to those obtained in the PABC2009, however, as is evident by comparing Figure 6-38 and Figure 6-39. Overall means of 

BNBHUDRZ obtained in the PCS-2012 PA and the PABC-2009 are shown together in Figure 

6-40. The overall means obtained in the two analyses are almost identical, with a very slight 

increase seen in the PCS-2012 PA result. 

Summary statistics for scenario S2-BF are shown in Table 5. 

Table 5: Summary Statistics for Scenario S2-BF 

Quantity 

(units) 

Mean Value Maximum Value 

PABC-2009 PCS-2012 PA PABC-2009 PCS-2012 PA

BRNWASIC 

(x103

 m3) 14.03 13.68 182.15 182.08 

WAS_SATB 

(none) 0.68 0.67 0.99 0.99 

GASMOL_W 

(x106

 moles) 54.75 54.57 149.00 149.00 

WAS_PRES 

(MPa) 7.39 7.50 15.63 16.40 

BNBHUDRZ 

(x103 m3) 3.25 3.28 166.84 169.54 

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Figure 6-25: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S2-BF. 

Figure 6-26: Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S2-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

x 106

Time (years)

WAS_PRES (Pa)

Scenario S2-BF

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

x 106

Time (years)

WAS_PRES (Pa)

Scenario S2-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

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Figure 6-27: Overall Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S2-BF. 

Figure 6-28: Horsetail Plot of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S2-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

x 106

Time (years)

WAS_PRES (Pa)

Scenario S2-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

x 104

Time (years)

BRNWASIC (m3)

Scenario S2-BF

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Figure 6-29: Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S2-BF. 

Figure 6-30: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S2-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

x 104

Time (years)

BRNWASIC (m3)

Scenario S2-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

x 104

Time (years)

BRNWASIC (m3)

Scenario S2-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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Figure 6-31: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S2-BF. 

Figure 6-32: Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S2-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Time (years)

WAS_SATB

Scenario S2-BF

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Time (years)

WAS_SATB

Scenario S2-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

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Figure 6-33: Overall Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S2-BF. 

Figure 6-34: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S2-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Time (years)

WAS_SATB

Scenario S2-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

5

10

15

x 107

Time (years)

GASMOL_W (moles)

Scenario S2-BF

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Figure 6-35: Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S2-BF. 

Figure 6-36: Overall Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S2-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

x 107

Time (years)

GASMOL_W (moles)

Scenario S2-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

x 107

Time (years)

GASMOL_W (moles)

Scenario S2-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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Figure 6-37: Horsetail Plot of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S2-BF. 

Figure 6-38: Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S2-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

x 104

Time (years)

BNBHUDRZ (m3)

Scenario S2-BF

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Time (years)

BNBHUDRZ (m3)

Scenario S2-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

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Figure 6-39: Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S2-BF for the PABC-2009. 

Figure 6-40: Overall Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S2-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Time (years)

BNBHUDRZ (m3)

Scenario S2-BF

PABC-2009 Replicate 1 Mean

PABC-2009 Replicate 2 Mean

PABC-2009 Replicate 3 Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Time (years)

BNBHUDRZ (m3)

Scenario S2-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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6.1.3 Results for an E2 Intrusion at 350 Years (Scenario S4-BF) 

Results are now presented for disturbance scenario S4-BF. Results presented for this scenario 

are representative of those calculated for E2 intrusion scenarios (scenarios S4-BF and S5-BF), 

with the only difference being the time of the intrusion. In the results that follow, PCS-2012 PA 

trends discussed for scenario S4-BF also apply to scenario S5-BF. 

As seen in the previous section, an E1 intrusion scenario results in an immediate influx of 

pressurized Castile brine to the waste panel, resulting in an increase is waste panel pressure when 

compared to undisturbed conditions. An E2 intrusion typically has the opposite effect. For the 

E2 intrusion scenario, no connected pathway is created between pressurized Castile brine and the 

repository waste panel. Following the intrusion, concrete plugs are immediately emplaced in the 

borehole near the ground surface. Consequently, an E2 intrusion does not typically have a 

significant impact on waste panel quantities at the time of intrusion. 200 years after the time of 

intrusion, concrete plugs emplaced in the borehole are modeled as failing, with the entire 

borehole assuming properties equivalent to sand. The result is a depressurization of the waste 

panel, beginning 200 years after the intrusion. Whereas an E1 intrusion typically results in an 

immediate increase in waste panel pressure, an E2 intrusion typically results in a reduction in 

waste panel pressure 200 years after the intrusion as compared to undisturbed conditions. 

A horsetail plot of waste panel pressure obtained in the PCS-2012 PA scenario S4-BF is shown 

in Figure 6-41. The three replicate means, and the overall mean, for quantity WAS_PRES are 

shown together in Figure 6-42. As seen in that figure, there is close agreement among the 

replicate means and the overall mean obtained for waste panel pressure in the PCS-2012 PA. 

The impact of the E2 intrusion on waste panel pressure is more closely seen in Figure 6-43. In 

that figure, PCS-2012 PA overall means of waste panel pressure obtained in scenarios S1-BF and 

S4-BF are plotted together with the time scale restricted to the first 1,000 years. As seen in that 

figure, no noticeable impact is seen in the mean waste panel pressure when the E2 intrusion 

occurs at 350 years. For the period of 350 years to 550 years, there is a slight increase in the 

mean pressure for scenario S4-BF as compared to undisturbed results. The borehole plugs fail at 

550 years, creating a pathway for waste panel pressure release through the borehole and toward 

the ground surface. Consequently, the mean waste panel pressure for scenario S4-BF is reduced 

sharply at 550 years when compared to undisturbed results. 

The overall means of waste panel pressure obtained for scenario S4-BF in the PCS-2012 PA and 

the PABC-2009 are shown together in Figure 6-44. As seen in that figure, the mean waste panel 

pressure obtained in the PCS-2012 PA is slightly greater than the PABC-2009 result. As already 

discussed, the PCS-2012 PA mean waste panel pressure is greater than that seen in the PABC2009 for undisturbed conditions (Figure 6-18). Consequently, at the time of the E2 intrusion, the 

mean waste panel pressure is greater in the PCS-2012 PA, and is also greater 200 years later 

when the borehole plugs fail. The result is a slightly higher mean pressure in the PCS-2012 PA 

scenario S4-BF result when compared to the PABC-2009. 

A horsetail plot of cumulative waste panel brine inflow for PCS-2012 PA scenario S4-BF is 

shown in Figure 6-45. The three replicate means, and the overall mean, for quantity 

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BRNWASIC are shown together in Figure 6-46. As seen in that figure, there is close agreement 

among the PCS-2012 PA means for quantity BRNWASIC. 

The impact of the E2 intrusion on cumulative waste panel brine inflow can be clearly seen in 

Figure 6-47. At the intrusion time of 350 years until the borehole plugs fail at 550 years, there is 

only a very slight increase in quantity BRNWASIC as compared to undisturbed conditions. 

After the borehole plugs fail, a decrease in the waste panel pressure occurs. This pressure 

reduction yields in an increase in brine flow into the waste panel at 550 years compared to the 

undisturbed case. 

The overall mean for quantity BRNWASIC in the PCS-2012 PA and the PABC-2009 are plotted 

together in Figure 6-48. As evident in that figure, an increase to the mean waste panel 

cumulative brine inflow is seen in the PCS-2012 PA results. This increase is due to the increased 

waste panel brine inflow seen for undisturbed conditions (Figure 6-5). As discussed above, very 

little impact is seen in the mean curve for quantity BRNWASIC as compared to undisturbed 

conditions, until the borehole plugs fail at 550 years. The PCS-2012 PA mean waste panel brine 

inflow curve is already greater than that obtained in the PABC-2009 when the borehole plugs fail 

at 550 years. The increase in brine inflow seen after the borehole plugs fail results in a PCS2012 PA mean waste panel brine inflow curve that remains greater than that seen in the PABC2009. 

The change to cumulative waste panel brine inflow seen in the PCS-2012 PA impacts the waste 

panel brine saturation. A horsetail plot of the PCS-2012 PA waste panel brine saturation is 

shown in Figure 6-49. The three replicate means, and the overall mean, obtained for quantity 

WAS_SATB are plotted together in Figure 6-50. As seen in that figure, there is good agreement 

between the means obtained in the PCS-2012 PA for the waste panel brine saturation. The 

impact of the E2 intrusion on quantity WAS_SATB is similar to that seen for cumulative brine 

flow into the waste panel. As seen in Figure 6-51, the mean waste panel brine saturation is 

changed very little as compared to undisturbed conditions for the time period of 350 to 550 

years. After the borehole plugs fail at 550 years, an increase of brine inflow to the waste panel 

translates to a corresponding increase in brine saturation. The result is a PCS-2012 PA mean 

waste brine saturation curve that is greater than that seen in the PABC-2009 results (Figure 

6-52). The increase in the mean cumulative brine inflow to the waste panel seen in the PCS2012 PA translates to an increase in the mean waste panel brine saturation. 

The increase in waste panel brine saturation impacts gas generation in the waste panel. A 

horsetail plot of PCS-2012 PA waste panel gas generation (in moles) is shown in Figure 6-53. 

The three replicate means, and the overall mean, for quantity GASMOL_W are plotted together 

in Figure 6-54. The impact of the E2 intrusion on waste panel gas generation can be seen in 

Figure 6-55. Between the intrusion time of 350 years to the time of borehole plug failure at 550 

years, the mean waste panel gas generation curve is increased very slightly compared to 

undisturbed conditions. After the borehole plugs fail, the increase to waste panel brine saturation 

results in a corresponding increase to waste panel gas generation. More brine flows into the 

waste panel (on average) in PCS-2012 PA scenario S4-BF as compared to the PABC-2009, 

resulting in an overall mean for quantity GASMOL_W is the PCS-2012 PA that is greater than 

that seen in the PABC-2009 (Figure 6-56). 

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The volume of brine flowing up the borehole toward the ground surface is denoted by quantity 

BNBHUDRZ. A horsetail plot of this quantity for the PCS-2012 PA scenario S4-BF is given in 

Figure 6-57. The three replicate means, and the overall mean, for BNBHUDRZ are plotted 

together in Figure 6-58. As seen in that figure, some variability exists among the means of brine 

flow up the borehole obtained in the PCS-2012 PA. This variability is not substantially different 

than that seen in the PABC-2009, as is evident by comparing Figure 6-58 and Figure 6-59. The 

increase in the mean waste panel pressure seen in the PCS-2012 PA yields a slight long-term 

increase in the means of quantity BNBHUDRZ. The overall mean of this quantity is greater in 

the PCS-2012 PA, as shown in Figure 6-60. 

Summary statistics for scenario S4-BF are shown in Table 6. 

Table 6: Summary Statistics for Scenario S4-BF 

Quantity 

(units) 

Mean Value Maximum Value 

PABC-2009 PCS-2012 PA PABC-2009 PCS-2012 PA

BRNWASIC 

(x103

 m3) 2.73 3.29 23.81 19.39 

WAS_SATB 

(none) 0.28 0.33 0.99 0.99 

GASMOL_W 

(x106 moles) 36.40 38.35 149.00 149.00 

WAS_PRES 

(MPa) 4.64 4.70 14.92 15.21 

BNBHUDRZ 

(m3

) 34.76 43.76 4876.89 5287.28 

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Figure 6-41: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S4-BF. 

Figure 6-42: Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S4-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

5

10

15

x 106

Time (years)

WAS_PRES (Pa)

Scenario S4-BF

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

x 106

Time (years)

WAS_PRES (Pa)

Scenario S4-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

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Figure 6-43: Overall Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenarios S1-BF and S4-BF for Years 0 to 

1,000. 

Figure 6-44: Overall Means of Waste Panel Pressure, Scenario S4-BF. 

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

x 106

Time (years)

WAS_PRES (Pa)

PCS-2012 S1-BF Overall Mean

PCS-2012 S4-BF Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

x 106

Time (years)

WAS_PRES (Pa)

Scenario S4-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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Figure 6-45: Horsetail Plot of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S4-BF. 

Figure 6-46: Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S4-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Time (years)

BRNWASIC (m3)

Scenario S4-BF

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Time (years)

BRNWASIC (m3)

Scenario S4-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

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Figure 6-47: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenarios S1-BF 

and S4-BF for Years 0 to 1,000. 

Figure 6-48: Overall Means of Cumulative Brine Inflow to the Waste Panel, Scenario S4-BF. 

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Time (years)

BRNWASIC (m3)

PCS-2012 S1-BF Overall Mean

PCS-2012 S4-BF Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Time (years)

BRNWASIC (m3)

Scenario S4-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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Figure 6-49: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S4-BF. 

Figure 6-50: Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S4-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Time (years)

WAS_SATB

Scenario S4-BF

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Time (years)

WAS_SATB

Scenario S4-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

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Figure 6-51: Overall Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenarios S1-BF and S4-BF for 

Years 0 to 1,000. 

Figure 6-52: Overall Means of Waste Panel Brine Saturation, Scenario S4-BF. 

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Time (years)

WAS_SATB

PCS-2012 S1-BF Overall Mean

PCS-2012 S4-BF Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Time (years)

WAS_SATB

Scenario S4-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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Figure 6-53: Horsetail Plot of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S4-BF. 

Figure 6-54: Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S4-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

5

10

15

x 107

Time (years)

GASMOL_W (moles)

Scenario S4-BF

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

x 107

Time (years)

GASMOL_W (moles)

Scenario S4-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

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Figure 6-55: Overall Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenarios S1-BF and S4-

BF for Years 0 to 1,000. 

Figure 6-56: Overall Means of Waste Panel Gas Generation (in moles), Scenario S4-BF. 

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

x 107

Time (years)

GASMOL_W (moles)

PCS-2012 S1-BF Overall Mean

PCS-2012 S4-BF Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

x 107

Time (years)

GASMOL_W (moles)

Scenario S4-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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Figure 6-57: Horsetail Plot of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S4-BF. 

Figure 6-58: Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S4-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Time (years)

BNBHUDRZ (m3)

Scenario S4-BF

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Time (years)

BNBHUDRZ (m3)

Scenario S4-BF

Replicate 1 Mean

Replicate 2 Mean

Replicate 3 Mean

Overall Mean

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Figure 6-59: Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S4-BF for the PABC-2009. 

Figure 6-60: Overall Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S4-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Time (years)

BNBHUDRZ (m3)

Scenario S4-BF

PABC-2009 Replicate 1 Mean

PABC-2009 Replicate 2 Mean

PABC-2009 Replicate 3 Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

50

100

150

200

250

Time (years)

BNBHUDRZ (m3)

Scenario S4-BF

PCS-2012 Overall Mean

PABC-2009 Overall Mean

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6.1.4 Results for an E2 Intrusion at 1000 Years Followed by a E1 Intrusion at 2000 Years 

(Scenario S6-BF) 

BRAGFLO scenario S6-BF models an E2 intrusion occurring at 1000 years, followed by an E1 

intrusion into the same panel at 2000 years. Calculated brine flows up the intrusion borehole 

obtained in scenario S6-BF are used in PA code PANEL to determine the radionuclide source 

term to the Culebra. Transport releases from the Culebra obtained in the PABC-2009 are used in 

the PCS-2012 PA. Results from BRAGFLO scenario S6-BF are now briefly discussed to justify 

the appropriateness of PABC-2009 Culebra transport calculations for the PCS-2012 PA. 

The volume of brine flowing up the borehole toward the ground surface is denoted by quantity 

BNBHUDRZ. A horsetail plot of this quantity for the PCS-2012 PA scenario S6-BF is given in 

Figure 6-61. For the sake of comparison, the horsetail plot obtained for quantity BNBHUDRZ 

obtained in the PABC-2009 calculations is shown in Figure 6-62. The horsetail plots obtained 

for this quantity in the PABC-2009 and the PCS-2012 PA are very similar. 

The three replicate means, and the overall mean, obtained for quantity BNBHUDRZ in scenario 

S6-BF are plotted together in Figure 6-63. The analogous curves obtained in the PABC-2009 

calculations are shown in Figure 6-64. As seen by comparing the results shown in Figure 6-63 

and Figure 6-64, the means obtained for quantity BNBHUDRZ in the two analyses are virtually 

identical. 

The overall means obtained for quantity BNBHUDRZ in the PCS-2012 PA and the PABC-2009 

are shown together in Figure 6-65. As seen in that figure, there is very close agreement between 

the overall means obtained in the two analyses. The replacement of the Option D panel closure 

with the ROMPCS design has a negligible impact on brine flow up the intrusion borehole in 

BRAGFLO scenario S6-BF. Actinide solubilities, the repository waste inventory, and Culebra 

transmissivity fields are unchanged from the PABC-2009 to the PCS-2012 PA. As the brine 

flows up the intrusion borehole obtained in the two analyses are virtually identical in scenario 

S6-BF, the radionuclide source term to the Culebra is virtually unchanged by the ROMPCS 

design as compared to Option D results. Consequently, transport releases from the Culebra are 

also virtually unchanged. Incorporating PABC-2009 Culebra transport results into the PCS-2012 

PA is reasonable and appropriate. 

Summary statistics for quantity BNBHUDRZ obtained in scenario S6-BF are shown in Table 7. 

Table 7: Summary Statistics for Scenario S6-BF 

Quantity 

(units) 

Mean Value Maximum Value 

PABC-2009 PCS-2012 PA PABC-2009 PCS-2012 PA

BNBHUDRZ 

(x103

 m3) 2.92 2.94 169.03 169.30 

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Figure 6-61: PCS-2012 PA Horsetail Plot of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S6-BF. 

Figure 6-62: PABC-2009 Horsetail Plot of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S6-BF. 

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

x 104

Time (years)

BNBHUDRZ (m3)

Scenario S6-BF

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

x 104

Time (years)

BNBHUDRZ (m3)

Scenario S6-BF

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Figure 6-63: PCS-2012 PA Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S6-BF. 

Figure 6-64: PABC-2009 Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S6-BF. 

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Figure 6-65: Overall Means of Brine Flow up the Borehole, Scenario S6-BF. 

7 SUMMARY 

Waste panel closures comprise a repository feature that has been represented in WIPP PA since 

the original Compliance Certification Application (CCA) of 1996. The 1998 rulemaking that 

certified WIPP to receive transuranic waste placed conditions on the panel closure design to be 

implemented in the repository. The mandated design consists of a concrete block wall, an open 

drift section, and a concrete monolith, and was termed the “Option D” panel closure. Following 

the selection of the Option D design in 1998, the engineering of the panel closure has been reassessed, and a revised design has been established that is simpler, cheaper, and easier to 

construct. The revised panel closure design, termed the Run-of-Mine Panel Closure System 

(ROMPCS), is comprised of 100 feet of ROM salt with barriers at each end. The PCS-2012 PA 

quantifies WIPP repository performance impacts associated with the replacement of the currently 

approved Option D panel closure design with the ROMPCS. Impacts are assessed via a direct 

comparison of results obtained in the PABC-2009 (where Option D was used) to those calculated 

in the PCS-2012 PA with the ROMPCS. 

 

For undisturbed conditions, implementation of the ROMPCS yields higher long-term waste panel 

pressure (on average) than was seen in the PABC-2009. The increase in mean waste panel 

pressure is accompanied by an increase in the average waste panel brine saturation for the 

ROMPCS results. The ROMPCS design allows more brine inflow to the waste panel during the 

first 200 years when compared to Option D results. This increased brine inflow, combined with 

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the tightness of the ROMPCS after 200 years, results in increased waste panel gas generation (on 

average) and a subsequent increase to waste panel mean pressure. 

The lower long-term permeability range of the ROMPCS as compared to Option D yields a 

period of increased waste panel pressurization following an E1 intrusion. The increased waste 

panel mean pressure slightly inhibits brine flow into the panel after the intrusion, with a 

corresponding slight decrease to the mean waste panel brine saturation as compared to PABC2009 E1 intrusion results. 

For E2 intrusion scenarios, the PCS-2012 PA mean waste panel pressure is higher than that seen 

in the PABC-2009 at the time of intrusion, and it remains higher for the duration of the 10,000 

year regulatory period. Similarly, the mean waste panel brine saturation is higher at the time of 

intrusion in the PCS-2012 PA, resulting in higher long-term waste panel brine saturations for E2 

intrusion scenarios. 

Brine flows up the borehole that are used to calculate the radionuclide source term in WIPP PA 

are negligibly impacted by the replacement of Option D with the ROMPCS. 

8 REFERENCES 

Camphouse, R.C. 2012a. Analysis Plan for the 2012 WIPP Panel Closure System Performance 

Assessment. Sandia National Laboratories, Carlsbad, NM. ERMS 557726. 

Camphouse, R.C. 2012b. A summary of parameters to be implemented in the PCS-2012 PA. 

Memo to Janis Trone dated July 10, 2012. Sandia National Laboratories, Carlsbad, NM. ERMS 

557721. 

Camphouse, R.C. 2012c. An overview of the BRAGFLO two-phase flow parameters used to 

model the run-of-mine salt panel closures implemented in the PCS-2012 PA. Memo to Paul 

Shoemaker dated June 7, 2012. Sandia National Laboratories, Carlsbad, NM. ERMS 557653. 

Camphouse, R.C., Gross, M., Herrick, C.G., Kicker, D.C., and Thompson, B. 2012a. 

Recommendations and Justifications of Parameter Values for the Run-of-Mine Salt Panel 

Closure System Design Modeled in the PCS-2012 PA. Memo to WIPP Records Center dated 

May 3, 2012. Sandia National Laboratories, Carlsbad, NM. ERMS 557396. 

Camphouse, R.C., Kicker, D.C., Kirchner, T.B., Long, J.J., Malama, B., and Zeitler, T.R. 2012b. 

Summary Report and Run Control for the 2012 WIPP Panel Closure System Performance 

Assessment. Sandia National Laboratories, Carlsbad, NM. 

Clayton, D.J., Camphouse, R. C., Garner, J. W., Ismail, A. E., Kirchner, T. B., Kuhlman, K. L., 

and Nemer, M. B.. 2010. Summary Report of the CRA-2009 Performance Assessment Baseline 

Calculation, Revision 1. Sandia National Laboratories. Carlsbad, New Mexico, ERMS 553039. 

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DOE (U.S. Department of Energy). 1996. Title 40 CFR Part 191 Compliance Certification 

Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. DOE/CAO-1996-2184. U.S. Department of 

Energy, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Carlsbad Area Office. Carlsbad, NM. 

DOE (U.S. Department of Energy). 2007. "Transuranic Waste Acceptance Criteria for The 

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Revision 6.1.” Carlsbad, NM: DOE/WIPP-02-3122. 

DOE (U.S. Department of Energy), 2011. Panel Closure System Design, Planned Change 

Request to the EPA 40 CFR Part 194 Certification of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. U.S. 

Department of Energy, Carlsbad Field Office. Carlsbad, New Mexico. 

EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). 1998. Criteria for the Certification and 

Re-Certification of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plants Compliance with the 40 CFR Part 191 

Disposal Regulations: Certification Decision; Final Rule, Federal Register, Vol. 63, No. 95, 

pp. 27353-27406. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, 

Washington, D.C. 

Nemer, M.B. 2010. Analysis Package for Salado Flow Modeling: CRA-2009 Performance 

Assessment Baseline Calculation. Sandia National Laboratories. Carlsbad, NM. ERMS 552956. 

Nemer, M. B., J. S. Stein and W. Zelinski. 2005. Analysis Report for BRAGFLO Preliminary 

Modeling Results With New Gas Generation Rates Based Upon Recent Experimental Results. 

Sandia National Laboratories, Carlsbad, NM. ERMS 539437. 

Patterson, Russell. 2012. Response to U.S. EPA Comment Dated June 7, 2012. U.S. Department 

of Energy, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Carlsbad Area Office. Carlsbad, NM. 

RockSol Consulting Group, Inc. 2006. Further Assessment of the Short-term Stability of the 12 

Foot Explosion Isolation Wall. Report prepared for Washington TRU Solutions, LLC. 

Stein, J.S. and Zelinski, W. 2003. Analysis Package for BRAGFLO: Compliance Recertification 

Application. Sandia National Laboratories, Carlsbad, NM. ERMS 530163. 

Vaughn, P. 1996. WIPP Parameter Entry Form for SANTAROS: SAT_IBRN. Sandia National 

Laboratories. Carlsbad, NM. WPO 33552. 

Vugrin, E.D. 2005. User’s Manual for LHS Version 2.42 Document Version 2.42. Sandia 

National Laboratories. Carlsbad, NM. ERMS 538374. 

Vugrin, E.D. and S.C. Dunagan. 2006. Analysis Package for the Impact Assessment of the 

Redesigned Panel Closure System, Rev. 0. Sandia National Laboratories. Carlsbad, NM. ERMS 

543865. 

Vugrin, E.D., F. Hansen, and B. Thompson. 2006. Recommendation and Justification of 

Parameter Values Required for Representation of the Redesigned Panel Closure System. Memo 

to David Kessel dated March 23, 2006. Sandia National Laboratories, Carlsbad, NM. ERMS 

542894. 

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