DRAFT

Pool Heater National Energy Impacts

Author: Virginie Letschert

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

COLOR SCHEME

Extrapolation

Input from Engineering and LCC Analysis

WORKSHEET DESCRIPTION

National Impacts Summary Tables and Charts of Primary Energy Savings and economic Impacts for All Product Classes

Base Case Consumption Calculation of Base Case Primary Energy Savings for all Product Classes

NIA Calculation of Primary Energy Savings and economic Impacts for Pool Heaters

Shipments Forecast Calculation of Base Case Shipments for all Product Classes

LCC Inputs Design Option Input Data: Associated Costs and Unit Energy Consumption

Retirement Function Probability Function Determining Replacement of Equipment

New Housing Forecast Forecast of New Housing

Energy Prices and Site to Source Forecasts of Energy Prices and Site-Source Conversion Factors

Discount Factor Discount Factor Forecast

This sheet allows the user to select from a variety of parameters to define the scenario for which they wish to 

calculate the NES and NPV. Parameters include the national discount rate and the energy price scenario

0900006480eb89bf.xlsx Julie Osborn 7/18/20112:08 PM
DRAFT

e user to select from a variety of parameters to define the scenario for which they wish to 

nd NPV. Parameters include the national discount rate and the energy price scenario

0900006480eb89bf.xlsx Julie Osborn 7/18/20112:08 PM
National Impacts Analysis Spreadsheet Flow Chart

LCC Inputs

NIA 

Shipments Forecast

National 

Impacts 

Summary

Historical data and 

user input 

worksheets

NES model and 

accounting 

worksheets 

Data output and 

summary 

worksheets 

sheet Flow Chart

New Housing Retirement 

Forecast

Shipments Forecast

Base Case 

Consumption



DRAFT

Discount Rate 7% Reference Case 1

Current Year 2010 Low Economic Growth 3

Economic Growth High Economic Growth

Efficiency Levels by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6

Shipment 

Weighted

Average 

Efficiency

Max NPV

Highest Efficiency 

Level 

with Positive NPV

Interim Max-Tech Max-Tech

Pool Heater 2 3 4 5 6 8

Efficiency by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6

Pool Heater 81% 82% 83% 84% 86% 95%

NES Results by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6

Pool Heater 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.22

NES (Discounted) Results by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6

Pool Heater 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06

NPV Incremental Total Installed Cost Results by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6

Pool Heater 0.01 0.07 0.28 0.45 1.43 3.62

NPV Total Operating (Energy+O&M) Costs Results by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6

Pool Heater 0.06 0.11 0.22 0.30 0.04 0.75

NPV Results by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6

Pool Heater 0.04 0.04 -0.06 -0.16 -1.39 -2.87

Pool Heater

BASE EF 1 EF 2 EF 3 EF 4 EF 5 EF 6 EF 7 EF 8

Design

78% - Baseline - 

pilot or elect. 

Ignition

79% - 

Improved 

HX

81% - Improved 

HX

82% - 

Improved 

HX, More 

Effective 

Insulation 

83% - Power 

Venting

84% - Power 

Venting, 

Improved HX

86% - Sealed 

Combustion, 

Improved HX

90% - Sealed 

Combustion, 

Condensing

95% - Sealed 

Combustion, 

Condensing, 

Improved HX

Shipments 2013-2043 (Millions) 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05

Incremental Equipment and O&M Costs ($ Billions) 0.002 0.040 0.194 0.832 1.306 5.631 10.352 11.691

Operating Cost Savings ($ Billions) 0.007 0.241 0.436 0.963 1.267 1.937 3.296 4.833

Discounted Incremental Equipment ($ Billions) 0.001 0.014 0.070 0.280 0.452 1.432 3.138 3.622

Discounted Operating Cost Savings (Energy and O&M) ($ Billions) 0.002 0.059 0.107 0.221 0.296 0.039 0.372 0.749

Net Savings, not discounted ($ Billions) 0.005 0.201 0.242 0.131 -0.039 -3.694 -7.056 -6.858

Net Present Value ($ Billions) 0.001 0.045 0.037 -0.059 -0.156 -1.393 -2.766 -2.873

Site Savings 2013- 2043 (Quads) 0.000 0.010 0.018 0.041 0.053 0.081 0.138 0.202

Source Savings 2013- 2043 (Quads) 0.000 0.011 0.020 0.043 0.057 0.087 0.148 0.216

Present Value of Source Savings 2013- 2043 (Quads) 0.000 0.003 0.006 0.013 0.017 0.026 0.044 0.065

National Impacts Summary

Efficiency Level

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

EF 1 EF 2 EF 3 EF 4 EF 5 EF 6 EF 7 EF 8

$Billions

Quads

National Impacts - Pool Heater

Source Energy Savings (Quads)

Net Present Value (Billions)

Reference Case

0900006480eb89bf.xlsx 7/18/2011
Shipments 

(Millions) Remaining Stock (Millions)

Gas Elec

1980 0.11 0.11 32.6 0.0

1981 0.11 0.23 32.6 0.0

1982 0.12 0.34 32.6 0.0

1983 0.12 0.46 32.6 0.0

1984 0.12 0.57 32.6 0.0

1985 0.12 0.68 32.6 0.0

1986 0.13 0.79 32.6 0.0

1987 0.13 0.88 32.6 0.0

1988 0.13 0.96 32.6 0.0

1989 0.13 1.03 32.6 0.0

1990 0.13 1.09 32.6 0.0

1991 0.14 1.14 32.6 0.0

1992 0.14 1.18 32.6 0.0

1993 0.14 1.21 32.6 0.0

1994 0.14 1.25 32.6 0.0

1995 0.15 1.27 32.6 0.0

1996 0.15 1.30 32.6 0.0

1997 0.15 1.33 32.6 0.0

1998 0.15 1.35 32.6 0.0

1999 0.16 1.38 32.6 0.0

2000 0.16 1.40 32.6 0.0

2001 0.16 1.43 32.6 0.0

2002 0.17 1.45 32.6 0.0

2003 0.17 1.48 32.6 0.0

2004 0.19 1.52 32.6 0.0

2005 0.23 1.61 32.6 0.0

2006 0.22 1.67 32.6 0.0

2007 0.19 1.70 32.6 0.0

2008 0.16 1.70 32.6 0.0

2009 0.12 1.66 32.6 0.0

2010 0.14 1.63 32.6 0.0

2011 0.14 1.59 32.6 0.0

2012 0.15 1.56 32.6 0.0

2013 0.15 1.54 32.6 0.0

2014 0.19 1.55 32.6 0.0

2015 0.19 1.56 32.6 0.0

2016 0.19 1.59 32.6 0.0

2017 0.19 1.61 32.6 0.0

UEC of Shipments (MMBtu)

Base Case Energy Consumption
2018 0.18 1.63 32.6 0.0

2019 0.18 1.65 32.6 0.0

2020 0.18 1.66 32.6 0.0

2021 0.18 1.68 32.6 0.0

2022 0.17 1.68 32.6 0.0

2023 0.17 1.69 32.6 0.0

2024 0.18 1.69 32.6 0.0

2025 0.18 1.69 32.6 0.0

2026 0.18 1.70 32.6 0.0

2027 0.18 1.70 32.6 0.0

2028 0.18 1.70 32.6 0.0

2029 0.18 1.70 32.6 0.0

2030 0.18 1.71 32.6 0.0

2031 0.18 1.71 32.6 0.0

2032 0.18 1.71 32.6 0.0

2033 0.18 1.71 32.6 0.0

2034 0.18 1.71 32.6 0.0

2035 0.18 1.70 32.6 0.0

2036 0.18 1.70 32.6 0.0

2037 0.18 1.70 32.6 0.0

2038 0.18 1.70 32.6 0.0

2039 0.18 1.70 32.6 0.0

2040 0.18 1.70 32.6 0.0

2041 0.18 1.71 32.6 0.0

2042 0.18 1.71 32.6 0.0

Total

2013-2043 5.4 50.2
Source Energy 

(Quads)

0.05

0.05

0.06

0.06

0.06
0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

1.8
1993 TSD Projections

1993 TSD Modeled 2009

Source: Shipments data 1981 & 1993 from TSD 1993, 2003-2009 from APSP 1981 0.114 0.114 Historical Shipments

Source: Historical Housing Census Data: http://www.census.gov/const/compann.pdf 1990 0.134 0.134 1990 0.134

Housing Forecast AEO2010 Early Release 1996 0.173 0.150 2003 0.168

New Housing Saturation Rate 1.3% Housing Boom (2002-2006) Not replaced fraction 2000 0.21 0.160

% of failing units NOT replaced by owner 29.3% 0.0% 2002

Ratio of New Pool Heaters to New Housing Starts 4.7% 2030 0.356 0.181

1959 1.234

1960 0.995

1961 0.974

1962 0.991

1963 1.012

1964 0.971

1965 0.964

1966 0.779

1967 0.844

1968 0.859 0.899

1969 0.808 0.811

1970 0.802 0.813

1971 1.014 1.151

1972 1.160 1.309

1973 1.197 1.132

1974 0.940 0.888

1975 0.101 0.000 0.000 0.875 0.892

1976 0.103 0.071 0.000 1.034 1.162

1977 0.105 0.144 0.000 1.258 1.451

1978 0.107 0.218 0.000 1.369 1.433

1979 0.110 0.294 0.000 1.301 1.194

1980 0.112 0.371 0.001 0.957 0.111 0.012 0.099 0.112 1% 0.852 13.0% 11.6%

1981 0.114 0.446 0.472 0.003 0.819 0.111 0.010 0.100 0.114 3% 0.705 15.7% 13.5%

1982 0.116 0.519 0.008 0.632 0.108 0.008 0.100 0.116 7% 0.663 16.3% 17.1%

1983 0.118 0.586 0.015 0.924 0.104 0.012 0.092 0.118 12% 1.068 9.7% 11.2%

1984 0.121 0.647 0.472 0.023 1.025 0.098 0.013 0.085 0.121 19% 1.084 9.1% 9.6%

1985 0.123 0.701 0.031 1.073 0.092 0.014 0.078 0.123 25% 1.072 8.6% 8.6%

1986 0.125 0.748 0.040 1.120 0.085 0.014 0.071 0.125 32% 1.179 7.2% 7.6%

1987 0.127 0.788 0.921 0.048 1.123 0.079 0.014 0.065 0.127 38% 1.146 6.9% 7.0%

1988 0.130 0.823 0.056 1.085 0.074 0.014 0.060 0.130 43% 1.081 6.8% 6.8%

1989 0.132 0.852 0.062 1.026 0.069 0.013 0.056 0.132 47% 1.003 6.9% 6.8%

1990 0.134 0.877 1.093 0.068 0.966 0.066 0.012 0.054 0.134 51% 0.895 7.4% 6.8%

1991 0.137 0.899 0.073 0.838 0.064 0.011 0.053 0.137 53% 0.840 7.6% 7.6%

1992 0.139 0.919 0.076 0.964 0.063 0.012 0.051 0.139 55% 1.030 6.1% 6.5%

1993 0.142 0.938 0.687 0.079 1.039 0.063 0.013 0.049 0.142 56% 1.126 5.6% 6.0%

1994 0.144 0.957 0.082 1.160 0.063 0.015 0.048 0.144 57% 1.198 5.2% 5.4%

1995 0.147 0.975 0.084 1.066 0.063 0.013 0.050 0.147 57% 1.076 5.9% 5.9%

1996 0.150 0.993 0.086 1.129 0.064 0.014 0.050 0.150 57% 1.161 5.5% 5.7%

1997 0.152 1.012 0.921 0.087 1.116 0.065 0.014 0.051 0.152 57% 1.134 5.7% 5.8%

1998 0.155 1.030 0.089 1.160 0.066 0.015 0.051 0.155 58% 1.271 5.2% 5.7%

1999 0.158 1.049 0.091 1.270 0.067 0.016 0.051 0.158 58% 1.302 5.1% 5.2%

2000 0.160 1.068 0.093 1.242 0.068 0.016 0.052 0.160 58% 1.231 5.5% 5.4%

2001 0.163 1.087 1.215 0.094 1.256 0.069 0.016 0.053 0.163 58% 1.273 5.4% 5.5%

2002 0.165 1.564 0.136 1.325 0.030 0.017 0.013 0.165 82% 1.359 2.2% 2.2%

2003 0.168 1.591 0.138 1.386 0.030 0.018 0.012 0.168 82% 1.499 2.0% 2.1%

2004 0.193 1.619 0.141 1.532 0.052 0.019 0.033 0.193 73% 1.611 3.2% 3.4%

2005 0.232 1.668 1.743 0.143 1.636 0.089 0.021 0.068 0.232 62% 1.716 5.2% 5.4%

2006 0.215 1.755 0.146 1.655 0.069 0.021 0.048 0.215 68% 1.465 4.7% 4.2%

2007 0.185 1.287 0.105 1.218 0.080 0.015 0.065 0.185 57% 1.046 7.7%

2008 0.161 1.311 0.107 0.819 0.054 0.010 0.044 0.161 66% 0.622 8.7%

2009 0.118 1.316 0.109 0.521 0.009 0.007 0.003 0.118 92% 0.444 2.1%

2010 0.136 1.288 0.111 1.193 0.025 0.015 0.010 0.136 82% 1.193 2.1%

2011 0.139 1.269 0.115 1.139 0.024 0.014 0.009 0.139 83% 1.139 2.1%

2012 0.148 1.248 0.119 1.371 0.029 0.017 0.011 0.148 81% 1.371 2.1%

2013 0.152 1.230 0.123 1.401 0.029 0.018 0.011 0.152 81% 1.401 2.1%

2014 0.190 1.212 0.126 1.379 0.064 0.017 0.047 0.190 66% 1.379 4.7%

2015 0.191 1.219 0.126 1.389 0.065 0.018 0.047 0.191 66% 1.389 4.7%

2016 0.191 1.229 0.126 1.400 0.065 0.018 0.048 0.191 66% 1.400 4.7%

2017 0.188 1.241 0.123 1.383 0.064 0.017 0.047 0.188 66% 1.383 4.7%

2018 0.184 1.253 0.120 1.375 0.064 0.017 0.047 0.184 65% 1.375 4.7%

2019 0.181 1.266 0.117 1.374 0.064 0.017 0.047 0.181 65% 1.374 4.7%

2020 0.178 1.279 0.115 1.356 0.063 0.017 0.046 0.178 65% 1.356 4.7%

2021 0.175 1.291 0.114 1.310 0.061 0.017 0.045 0.175 65% 1.310 4.7%

2022 0.174 1.300 0.115 1.276 0.060 0.016 0.043 0.174 66% 1.276 4.7%

2023 0.175 1.307 0.116 1.258 0.059 0.016 0.043 0.175 66% 1.258 4.7%

2024 0.177 1.312 0.118 1.251 0.058 0.016 0.043 0.177 67% 1.251 4.7%

2025 0.180 1.317 0.121 1.268 0.059 0.016 0.043 0.180 67% 1.268 4.7%

2026 0.182 1.321 0.123 1.265 0.059 0.016 0.043 0.182 68% 1.265 4.7%

2027 0.182 1.325 0.124 1.235 0.058 0.016 0.042 0.182 68% 1.235 4.7%

2028 0.181 1.328 0.126 1.191 0.056 0.015 0.041 0.181 69% 1.191 4.7%

2029 0.181 1.330 0.126 1.166 0.054 0.015 0.040 0.181 70% 1.166 4.7%

2030 0.181 1.331 0.126 1.169 0.055 0.015 0.040 0.181 70% 1.169 4.7%

2031 0.180 1.333 0.126 1.155 0.054 0.015 0.039 0.180 70% 1.155 4.7%

2032 0.179 1.334 0.126 1.118 0.052 0.014 0.038 0.179 71% 1.118 4.7%

2033 0.178 1.333 0.126 1.106 0.052 0.014 0.038 0.178 71% 1.106 4.7%

2034 0.178 1.333 0.126 1.110 0.052 0.014 0.038 0.178 71% 1.110 4.7%

2035 0.178 1.332 0.127 1.114 0.052 0.014 0.038 0.178 71% 1.114 4.7%

2036 0.179 1.332 0.127 1.120 0.052 0.014 0.038 0.179 71% 1.120 4.7%

2037 0.179 1.331 0.127 1.126 0.052 0.014 0.038 0.179 71% 1.126 4.7%

2038 0.180 1.331 0.127 1.131 0.053 0.014 0.038 0.180 71% 1.131 4.7%

2039 0.180 1.331 0.127 1.137 0.053 0.014 0.039 0.180 71% 1.137 4.7%

2040 0.180 1.331 0.127 1.142 0.053 0.014 0.039 0.180 70% 1.142 4.7%

2041 0.181 1.332 0.127 1.148 0.054 0.015 0.039 0.181 70% 1.148 4.7%

2042 0.181 1.332 0.127 1.154 0.054 0.015 0.039 0.181 70% 1.154 4.7%

Modeled 

Replacements 

(million)

 First Time 

Owners 

(million)

First time 

Owners + 

Modeled New 

Housing 

Installations

Base Case Shipments

Shipments 

(million)

Modeled New 

Housing 

Installations 

(million)

SF 

Completions 

(million)

Calculated 

Stock

Stock 

derived from 

RECS

Ratio of New PH 

Shipments to 

New Housing 

Completions

Ratio of New PH 

Shipments to 

New Housing 

Starts

SF Starts 

(million)

Fraction of 

Shipments that 

are 

replacements

Modeled 

Shipments 

(million)
0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Pool Heater Stock (Million HHs)

Year

RECS vs. Modeled Pool Heater Stock

Modeled PH Stock

RECS PH Stock Data

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Percentage

Year

Fraction of New Pool Heater Shipments vs. New Housing Starts
Shipments Affected Stock Avg UEC of 

Shipments

Gas Efficiency, 

Site Savings

Elec. Eff. Site 

Savings

Total Primary 

Savings

Discounted 

Primary 

Savings

Energy Cost 

Savings

Equipment 

Cost Savings

Maintenance 

Cost Savings Net Savings Net Present Value

Gas Efficiency 

Site Savings

Millions Millions MMBtu Quads TWh Quads Quads Billions $2009 Billions 

$2009 Billions $2009 Billions $2009

Billions 

$2009 Quads

2013 0.152 0.15 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000

2014 0.190 0.34 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00006 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001

2015 0.191 0.53 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00006 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001

2016 0.191 0.72 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00006 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0002

2017 0.188 0.91 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00006 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0002

2018 0.184 1.09 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00006 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0002

2019 0.181 1.25 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003

2020 0.178 1.39 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003

2021 0.175 1.51 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003

2022 0.174 1.61 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003

2023 0.175 1.69 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2024 0.177 1.75 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2025 0.180 1.79 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2026 0.182 1.83 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2027 0.182 1.85 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2028 0.181 1.86 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2029 0.181 1.87 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2030 0.181 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2031 0.180 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2032 0.179 1.89 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2033 0.178 1.89 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2034 0.178 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2035 0.178 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2036 0.179 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2037 0.179 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2038 0.180 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2039 0.180 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2040 0.180 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2041 0.181 1.89 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2042 0.181 1.89 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2043 1.71 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004

2044 1.53 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003

2045 1.35 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003

2046 1.17 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003

2047 0.99 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0002

2048 0.82 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0002

2049 0.66 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001

2050 0.52 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001

Pool Heater NES

Base Case

Net Present Value

Efficiency Level 1

Energy Savings
2051 0.39 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001

2052 0.29 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001

2053 0.21 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000

2054 0.14 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000

2055 0.09 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000

2056 0.06 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000

2057 0.04 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000

2058 0.02 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000

2059 0.01 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000

2060 0.01 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000

2061 0.00 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000

2062 0.00 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000

2063 0.00 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000

2064 0.00 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000
Elec. Eff. Site 

Savings

Total Primary 

Savings

Discounted 

Primary 

Savings

Energy 

Cost 

Savings

Equipment 

Cost 

Savings

Maintenance 

Cost Savings Net Savings Net Present Value

Gas 

Efficiency 

Site Savings

Elec. Eff. Site 

Savings

Total 

Primary 

Savings

Discounted 

Primary 

Savings

Energy 

Cost 

Savings

Equipment 

Cost Savings

Maintenance 

Cost Savings

TWh Quads Quads Billions 

$2009

Billions 

$2009 Billions $2009 Billions $2009 Billions $2009 Quads TWh Quads Quads Billions $2009

Billions 

$2009

Billions 

$2009

0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 -$0.001 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0001 $0.00 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0001 0.0001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0001 $0.00 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0001 0.0001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0002 0.000 0.0002 0.0002 $0.00 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0002 0.0001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 0.0003 0.000 0.0003 0.0002 $0.00 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0002 0.0001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.002 $0.00 0.0004 0.000 0.0004 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0003 0.0001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 0.0004 0.000 0.0005 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0003 0.0002 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 0.0005 0.000 0.0005 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0003 0.0002 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.004 $0.00 0.0005 0.000 0.0006 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0003 0.0002 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.004 $0.00 0.0006 0.000 0.0006 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0002 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 0.0006 0.000 0.0007 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0002 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0007 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0002 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0007 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0002 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.02 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.02 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.02 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.02 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.02 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.008 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.02 -$0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000 $0.008 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0007 0.0001 $0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0004 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0006 0.000 0.0006 0.0001 $0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0003 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0005 0.000 0.0006 0.0001 $0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0003 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0005 0.000 0.0005 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 0.0004 0.000 0.0004 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.004 $0.00 0.0003 0.000 0.0003 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 0.0003 0.000 0.0003 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000

0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 0.0002 0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

Energy Savings Energy Savings Net Present Value

Efficiency Level 2

Net Present Value

Efficiency Level 3
0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.002 $0.00 0.0002 0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.002 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000
Net 

Savings

Net Present 

Value

Gas 

Efficiency 

Site Savings

Elec. Eff. Site 

Savings

Total 

Primary 

Savings

Discounted 

Primary 

Savings

Energy Cost 

Savings

Equipment 

Cost Savings

Maintenance 

Cost Savings Net Savings Net Present Value

Gas 

Efficiency 

Site 

Savings

Elec. Eff. 

Site 

Savings

Total 

Primary 

Savings

Discounted 

Primary 

Savings

Energy 

Cost 

Savings

Billions 

$2009 Billions $2009 Quads TWh Quads Quads Billions $2009

Billions 

$2009 Billions $2009 Billions $2009 Billions $2009 Quads TWh Quads Quads Billions $2009

$0.00 $0.00 0.0001 -0.001 0.0001 0.0001 $0.00 -$0.02 $0.000 -$0.02 -$0.02 0.0002 -0.001 0.0002 0.0001 $0.00

$0.00 $0.00 0.0003 -0.002 0.0003 0.0002 $0.005 -$0.03 $0.000 -$0.02 -$0.02 0.0004 -0.002 0.0004 0.0003 $0.006

$0.00 $0.00 0.0005 -0.003 0.0005 0.0003 $0.008 -$0.03 -$0.001 -$0.02 -$0.01 0.0006 -0.003 0.0006 0.0005 $0.010

$0.00 $0.00 0.0006 -0.003 0.0007 0.0004 $0.010 -$0.03 -$0.001 -$0.02 -$0.01 0.0008 -0.003 0.0009 0.0006 $0.014

$0.00 $0.00 0.0008 -0.004 0.0008 0.0005 $0.013 -$0.03 -$0.001 -$0.01 -$0.01 0.0011 -0.004 0.0011 0.0007 $0.017

$0.00 $0.00 0.0010 -0.005 0.0010 0.0006 $0.016 -$0.03 -$0.001 -$0.01 -$0.01 0.0013 -0.005 0.0013 0.0008 $0.021

$0.00 $0.00 0.0011 -0.006 0.0011 0.0006 $0.018 -$0.03 -$0.001 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0014 -0.006 0.0015 0.0008 $0.024

$0.00 $0.00 0.0012 -0.007 0.0013 0.0006 $0.021 -$0.03 -$0.001 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0016 -0.007 0.0017 0.0009 $0.027

$0.00 $0.00 0.0013 -0.007 0.0014 0.0007 $0.023 -$0.03 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00 0.0018 -0.007 0.0018 0.0009 $0.030

$0.00 $0.00 0.0014 -0.008 0.0015 0.0007 $0.024 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0019 -0.008 0.0019 0.0009 $0.032

$0.01 $0.00 0.0015 -0.008 0.0016 0.0006 $0.026 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0020 -0.008 0.0020 0.0008 $0.034

$0.01 $0.00 0.0016 -0.008 0.0016 0.0006 $0.026 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0020 -0.008 0.0021 0.0008 $0.035

$0.01 $0.00 0.0016 -0.009 0.0017 0.0006 $0.027 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0021 -0.009 0.0022 0.0008 $0.036

$0.01 $0.00 0.0016 -0.009 0.0017 0.0006 $0.028 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0021 -0.009 0.0022 0.0008 $0.037

$0.01 $0.00 0.0016 -0.009 0.0017 0.0005 $0.029 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0021 -0.009 0.0023 0.0007 $0.038

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0005 $0.029 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0007 $0.039

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0005 $0.030 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0006 $0.040

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0005 $0.031 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0006 $0.040

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0004 $0.031 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0006 $0.041

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0004 $0.032 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0005 $0.042

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0004 $0.032 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0005 $0.042

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0003 $0.032 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0005 $0.043

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0003 $0.033 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0004 $0.043

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0003 $0.033 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0004 $0.044

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0003 $0.033 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0004 $0.044

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0003 $0.034 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0003 $0.044

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0002 $0.034 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0003 $0.045

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0002 $0.035 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0003 $0.045

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0002 $0.035 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0003 $0.046

$0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0002 $0.035 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022 -0.009 0.0023 0.0003 $0.047

$0.01 $0.00 0.0015 -0.008 0.0016 0.0002 $0.032 -$0.002 $0.03 $0.00 0.0020 -0.008 0.0021 0.0002 $0.043

$0.01 $0.00 0.0014 -0.007 0.0014 0.0001 $0.029 -$0.002 $0.03 $0.00 0.0018 -0.007 0.0019 0.0002 $0.038

$0.01 $0.00 0.0012 -0.007 0.0012 0.0001 $0.026 -$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0016 -0.006 0.0016 0.0002 $0.034

$0.01 $0.00 0.0010 -0.006 0.0011 0.0001 $0.023 -$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0014 -0.006 0.0014 0.0001 $0.030

$0.01 $0.00 0.0009 -0.005 0.0009 0.0001 $0.020 -$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0011 -0.005 0.0012 0.0001 $0.026

$0.01 $0.00 0.0007 -0.004 0.0008 0.0001 $0.016 -$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0010 -0.004 0.0010 0.0001 $0.022

$0.01 $0.00 0.0006 -0.003 0.0006 0.0000 $0.013 -$0.001 $0.01 $0.00 0.0008 -0.003 0.0008 0.0001 $0.018

$0.00 $0.00 0.0005 -0.003 0.0005 0.0000 $0.011 -$0.001 $0.01 $0.00 0.0006 -0.002 0.0006 0.0000 $0.014

Net Present Value Energy Savings

Efficiency Level 4

Net Present Value

Efficiency Level 5

Energy Savings
$0.00 $0.00 0.0004 -0.002 0.0004 0.0000 $0.008 $0.000 $0.01 $0.00 0.0005 -0.002 0.0005 0.0000 $0.011

$0.00 $0.00 0.0003 -0.001 0.0003 0.0000 $0.006 $0.000 $0.01 $0.00 0.0003 -0.001 0.0004 0.0000 $0.008

$0.00 $0.00 0.0002 -0.001 0.0002 0.0000 $0.004 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0002 -0.001 0.0003 0.0000 $0.006

$0.00 $0.00 0.0001 -0.001 0.0001 0.0000 $0.003 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0002 -0.001 0.0002 0.0000 $0.004

$0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.002 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.003

$0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.002

$0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.001

$0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.001

$0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000

$0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000

$0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000

$0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000

$0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000

$0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000
Equipmen

t Cost 

Savings

Maintenance Cost 

Savings

Net 

Savings

Net 

Present 

Value

Gas 

Efficiency 

Site 

Savings

Elec. Eff. 

Site 

Savings

Total 

Primary 

Savings

Discounted 

Primary 

Savings

Energy 

Cost 

Savings

Equipment 

Cost 

Savings

Maintenance Cost 

Savings

Net 

Savings

Net 

Present 

Value

Gas 

Efficiency 

Site 

Savings

Elec. Eff. 

Site 

Savings

Total 

Primary 

Savings

Discounted 

Primary 

Savings

Billions 

$2009 Billions $2009 Billions $2009

Billions 

$2009 Quads TWh Quads Quads Billions $2009

Billions 

$2009 Billions $2009 Billions $2009

Billions 

$2009 Quads TWh Quads Quads

-$0.04 $0.000 -$0.03 -$0.03 0.0003 -0.001 0.0003 0.0002 $0.00 -$0.11 -$0.004 -$0.11 -$0.09 0.0005 -0.001 0.0005 0.0004

-$0.04 $0.000 -$0.04 -$0.03 0.0006 -0.002 0.0006 0.0005 $0.010 -$0.14 -$0.010 -$0.14 -$0.11 0.0010 -0.002 0.0011 0.0008

-$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.03 -$0.02 0.0009 -0.002 0.0010 0.0007 $0.015 -$0.14 -$0.016 -$0.14 -$0.10 0.0016 -0.002 0.0017 0.0012

-$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.03 -$0.02 0.0013 -0.003 0.0013 0.0009 $0.021 -$0.14 -$0.021 -$0.14 -$0.09 0.0022 -0.003 0.0023 0.0015

-$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.03 -$0.02 0.0016 -0.004 0.0017 0.0010 $0.026 -$0.14 -$0.027 -$0.14 -$0.09 0.0027 -0.004 0.0029 0.0018

-$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.02 -$0.01 0.0019 -0.005 0.0020 0.0012 $0.032 -$0.14 -$0.032 -$0.14 -$0.08 0.0032 -0.005 0.0034 0.0020

-$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.02 -$0.01 0.0022 -0.006 0.0023 0.0013 $0.037 -$0.13 -$0.037 -$0.13 -$0.07 0.0037 -0.006 0.0039 0.0021

-$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.02 -$0.01 0.0024 -0.006 0.0026 0.0013 $0.041 -$0.13 -$0.041 -$0.13 -$0.07 0.0041 -0.006 0.0044 0.0022

-$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.01 -$0.01 0.0027 -0.007 0.0028 0.0013 $0.045 -$0.13 -$0.045 -$0.13 -$0.06 0.0045 -0.007 0.0048 0.0023

-$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0028 -0.008 0.0030 0.0013 $0.049 -$0.13 -$0.048 -$0.13 -$0.06 0.0048 -0.007 0.0051 0.0023

-$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0030 -0.008 0.0031 0.0013 $0.051 -$0.13 -$0.050 -$0.13 -$0.05 0.0050 -0.007 0.0053 0.0022

-$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0031 -0.008 0.0033 0.0013 $0.053 -$0.13 -$0.052 -$0.13 -$0.05 0.0052 -0.008 0.0055 0.0021

-$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0032 -0.008 0.0033 0.0012 $0.055 -$0.13 -$0.053 -$0.13 -$0.05 0.0053 -0.008 0.0057 0.0021

-$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0032 -0.009 0.0034 0.0012 $0.057 -$0.13 -$0.054 -$0.13 -$0.04 0.0054 -0.008 0.0058 0.0020

-$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0034 0.0011 $0.058 -$0.13 -$0.055 -$0.13 -$0.04 0.0055 -0.008 0.0059 0.0019

-$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0010 $0.059 -$0.13 -$0.055 -$0.13 -$0.04 0.0055 -0.008 0.0059 0.0017

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0010 $0.061 -$0.13 -$0.055 -$0.13 -$0.04 0.0056 -0.008 0.0059 0.0016

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0009 $0.062 -$0.13 -$0.055 -$0.13 -$0.03 0.0056 -0.008 0.0060 0.0015

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0008 $0.063 -$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12 -$0.03 0.0056 -0.008 0.0060 0.0014

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0008 $0.064 -$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12 -$0.03 0.0056 -0.008 0.0060 0.0013

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0007 $0.064 -$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12 -$0.03 0.0056 -0.008 0.0060 0.0013

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0007 $0.065 -$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12 -$0.02 0.0056 -0.008 0.0060 0.0012

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0006 $0.066 -$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12 -$0.02 0.0056 -0.008 0.0060 0.0011

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0006 $0.067 -$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12 -$0.02 0.0056 -0.008 0.0060 0.0010

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0006 $0.067 -$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12 -$0.02 0.0056 -0.008 0.0060 0.0010

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0005 $0.068 -$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12 -$0.02 0.0056 -0.008 0.0060 0.0009

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0005 $0.069 -$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12 -$0.02 0.0056 -0.008 0.0060 0.0008

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0005 $0.070 -$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12 -$0.02 0.0056 -0.008 0.0060 0.0008

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0004 $0.070 -$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12 -$0.01 0.0056 -0.008 0.0060 0.0007

-$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033 -0.009 0.0035 0.0004 $0.071 -$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12 -$0.01 0.0056 -0.008 0.0060 0.0007

-$0.002 $0.04 $0.00 0.0030 -0.008 0.0032 0.0003 $0.065 -$0.050 $0.01 $0.00 0.0051 -0.008 0.0054 0.0006

-$0.002 $0.04 $0.00 0.0027 -0.007 0.0028 0.0003 $0.059 -$0.045 $0.01 $0.00 0.0045 -0.007 0.0048 0.0005

-$0.001 $0.03 $0.00 0.0024 -0.006 0.0025 0.0002 $0.053 -$0.040 $0.01 $0.00 0.0040 -0.006 0.0043 0.0004

-$0.001 $0.03 $0.00 0.0021 -0.005 0.0022 0.0002 $0.046 -$0.034 $0.01 $0.00 0.0035 -0.005 0.0037 0.0003

-$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0017 -0.005 0.0018 0.0002 $0.039 -$0.029 $0.01 $0.00 0.0029 -0.004 0.0031 0.0003

-$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0014 -0.004 0.0015 0.0001 $0.033 -$0.024 $0.01 $0.00 0.0024 -0.004 0.0026 0.0002

-$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0012 -0.003 0.0012 0.0001 $0.027 -$0.020 $0.01 $0.00 0.0020 -0.003 0.0021 0.0001

-$0.001 $0.01 $0.00 0.0009 -0.002 0.0010 0.0001 $0.021 -$0.015 $0.01 $0.00 0.0015 -0.002 0.0016 0.0001

Efficiency Level 6

Energy Savings Net Present Value

Efficiency Level 7

Energy Savings

Efficiency Level 5

Net Present Value
$0.000 $0.01 $0.00 0.0007 -0.002 0.0007 0.0000 $0.016 -$0.012 $0.00 $0.00 0.0012 -0.002 0.0012 0.0001

$0.000 $0.01 $0.00 0.0005 -0.001 0.0005 0.0000 $0.012 -$0.009 $0.00 $0.00 0.0009 -0.001 0.0009 0.0001

$0.000 $0.01 $0.00 0.0004 -0.001 0.0004 0.0000 $0.009 -$0.006 $0.00 $0.00 0.0006 -0.001 0.0007 0.0000

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0002 -0.001 0.0003 0.0000 $0.006 -$0.004 $0.00 $0.00 0.0004 -0.001 0.0004 0.0000

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0002 0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.004 -$0.003 $0.00 $0.00 0.0003 0.000 0.0003 0.0000

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.003 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0002 0.000 0.0002 0.0000

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.002 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.001 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000
Energy 

Cost 

Savings

Equipmen

t Cost 

Savings

Maintenance Cost 

Savings

Net 

Savings

Net 

Present 

Value

Gas 

Efficiency 

Site 

Savings

Elec. Eff. 

Site 

Savings

Total 

Primary 

Savings

Discounted 

Primary 

Savings

Energy 

Cost 

Savings

Equipmen

t Cost 

Savings

Maintenance Cost 

Savings

Net 

Savings

Net 

Present 

Value

Billions 

$2009

Billions 

$2009 Billions $2009 Billions $2009

Billions 

$2009 Quads TWh Quads Quads Billions $2009

Billions 

$2009 Billions $2009 Billions $2009

Billions 

$2009

$0.01 -$0.25 -$0.004 -$0.24 -$0.20 0.0007 -0.001 0.0007 0.0006 $0.01 -$0.28 -$0.004 -$0.28 -$0.23

$0.016 -$0.31 -$0.010 -$0.30 -$0.23 0.0015 -0.001 0.0016 0.0012 $0.024 -$0.35 -$0.010 -$0.34 -$0.26

$0.026 -$0.31 -$0.016 -$0.30 -$0.21 0.0023 -0.002 0.0025 0.0017 $0.038 -$0.36 -$0.016 -$0.33 -$0.24

$0.035 -$0.31 -$0.021 -$0.29 -$0.20 0.0031 -0.003 0.0033 0.0022 $0.052 -$0.35 -$0.021 -$0.32 -$0.22

$0.045 -$0.30 -$0.027 -$0.28 -$0.18 0.0040 -0.004 0.0042 0.0026 $0.066 -$0.35 -$0.027 -$0.31 -$0.19

$0.054 -$0.30 -$0.032 -$0.27 -$0.16 0.0047 -0.005 0.0050 0.0029 $0.079 -$0.34 -$0.032 -$0.29 -$0.17

$0.063 -$0.29 -$0.037 -$0.27 -$0.14 0.0054 -0.005 0.0058 0.0031 $0.092 -$0.34 -$0.037 -$0.28 -$0.15

$0.071 -$0.29 -$0.041 -$0.26 -$0.13 0.0060 -0.006 0.0064 0.0033 $0.103 -$0.33 -$0.041 -$0.27 -$0.14

$0.077 -$0.28 -$0.045 -$0.25 -$0.12 0.0066 -0.006 0.0070 0.0033 $0.113 -$0.33 -$0.045 -$0.26 -$0.12

$0.083 -$0.28 -$0.048 -$0.24 -$0.11 0.0070 -0.007 0.0074 0.0033 $0.122 -$0.32 -$0.048 -$0.25 -$0.11

$0.088 -$0.28 -$0.050 -$0.24 -$0.10 0.0073 -0.007 0.0078 0.0032 $0.128 -$0.32 -$0.050 -$0.25 -$0.10

$0.090 -$0.28 -$0.052 -$0.25 -$0.10 0.0076 -0.007 0.0081 0.0032 $0.133 -$0.33 -$0.052 -$0.25 -$0.10

$0.094 -$0.29 -$0.053 -$0.25 -$0.09 0.0078 -0.007 0.0083 0.0030 $0.137 -$0.33 -$0.053 -$0.25 -$0.09

$0.096 -$0.29 -$0.054 -$0.25 -$0.08 0.0079 -0.008 0.0085 0.0029 $0.141 -$0.34 -$0.054 -$0.25 -$0.08

$0.099 -$0.29 -$0.055 -$0.25 -$0.08 0.0080 -0.008 0.0086 0.0027 $0.145 -$0.34 -$0.055 -$0.25 -$0.08

$0.101 -$0.29 -$0.055 -$0.25 -$0.07 0.0081 -0.008 0.0087 0.0026 $0.148 -$0.34 -$0.055 -$0.24 -$0.07

$0.103 -$0.29 -$0.055 -$0.24 -$0.07 0.0081 -0.008 0.0087 0.0024 $0.151 -$0.34 -$0.055 -$0.24 -$0.07

$0.105 -$0.29 -$0.055 -$0.24 -$0.06 0.0082 -0.008 0.0087 0.0023 $0.154 -$0.34 -$0.055 -$0.24 -$0.06

$0.107 -$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.24 -$0.06 0.0082 -0.008 0.0088 0.0021 $0.158 -$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.06

$0.109 -$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.05 0.0082 -0.008 0.0088 0.0020 $0.159 -$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.05

$0.110 -$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.05 0.0082 -0.008 0.0088 0.0018 $0.161 -$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.05

$0.111 -$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.05 0.0082 -0.008 0.0088 0.0017 $0.163 -$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22 -$0.04

$0.112 -$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.04 0.0082 -0.008 0.0088 0.0016 $0.164 -$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22 -$0.04

$0.113 -$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.04 0.0082 -0.008 0.0088 0.0015 $0.166 -$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22 -$0.04

$0.114 -$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.04 0.0082 -0.008 0.0087 0.0014 $0.168 -$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22 -$0.04

$0.116 -$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.03 0.0082 -0.008 0.0087 0.0013 $0.170 -$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22 -$0.03

$0.117 -$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.03 0.0082 -0.008 0.0088 0.0012 $0.171 -$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22 -$0.03

$0.118 -$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.03 0.0082 -0.008 0.0088 0.0012 $0.173 -$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22 -$0.03

$0.120 -$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.03 0.0082 -0.008 0.0088 0.0011 $0.175 -$0.34 -$0.056 -$0.22 -$0.03

$0.121 -$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23 -$0.03 0.0082 -0.008 0.0088 0.0010 $0.177 -$0.34 -$0.056 -$0.21 -$0.02

$0.111 -$0.050 $0.06 $0.01 0.0074 -0.007 0.0079 0.0009 $0.162 -$0.050 $0.11 $0.01

$0.100 -$0.045 $0.06 $0.01 0.0066 -0.006 0.0071 0.0007 $0.147 -$0.045 $0.10 $0.01

$0.089 -$0.040 $0.05 $0.00 0.0059 -0.006 0.0063 0.0006 $0.131 -$0.040 $0.09 $0.01

$0.078 -$0.034 $0.04 $0.00 0.0051 -0.005 0.0054 0.0005 $0.115 -$0.034 $0.08 $0.01

$0.067 -$0.029 $0.04 $0.00 0.0043 -0.004 0.0046 0.0004 $0.098 -$0.029 $0.07 $0.01

$0.056 -$0.024 $0.03 $0.00 0.0036 -0.003 0.0038 0.0003 $0.082 -$0.024 $0.06 $0.00

$0.046 -$0.020 $0.03 $0.00 0.0029 -0.003 0.0031 0.0002 $0.067 -$0.020 $0.05 $0.00

$0.036 -$0.015 $0.02 $0.00 0.0022 -0.002 0.0024 0.0002 $0.053 -$0.015 $0.04 $0.00

Efficiency Level 8

Energy Savings Net Present Value

Efficiency Level 7

Net Present Value
$0.028 -$0.012 $0.02 $0.00 0.0017 -0.002 0.0018 0.0001 $0.041 -$0.012 $0.03 $0.00

$0.021 -$0.009 $0.01 $0.00 0.0013 -0.001 0.0013 0.0001 $0.030 -$0.009 $0.02 $0.00

$0.015 -$0.006 $0.01 $0.00 0.0009 -0.001 0.0010 0.0001 $0.022 -$0.006 $0.02 $0.00

$0.010 -$0.004 $0.01 $0.00 0.0006 -0.001 0.0007 0.0000 $0.015 -$0.004 $0.01 $0.00

$0.007 -$0.003 $0.00 $0.00 0.0004 0.000 0.0004 0.0000 $0.010 -$0.003 $0.01 $0.00

$0.004 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0003 0.000 0.0003 0.0000 $0.007 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00

$0.003 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00 0.0002 0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.004 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00

$0.002 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.002 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00

$0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00

$0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00

$0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00

$0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00

$0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00

$0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00
DRAFT

Pool Heater

Efficiency 

Level

Description

 Rebound 

ON Market 

Average 

Gas Use

Rebound 

ON Market 

Average 

Elec UEC

Rebound 

OFF 

Market 

Average 

Gas Use

Rebound 

OFF Market 

Average 

Elec Use Installed Price 

Market Average 

Installed Price

Annual Maint. 

Cost Repair Cost Repair

Market 

Average 

Maint. 

Cost

Market 

Average 

Repair 

Cost

Market 

Average 

Repair 

Year

 (MMBtu) (kWh) (MMBtu) (kWh) 2009$ 2009$ 2009$ 2009$ Year 2009$ 2009$ 2009$

0 78% 78% - Baseline - pilot or elect. Ignition 32.7 3.7 32.6 3.7 $3,240 3,426.5 $73 $0 0 75.8 0.0 0.0 1.5% 1.5%

1 79% 79% - Improved HX 32.7 3.7 32.6 3.7 $3,260 3,426.8 $73 $0 0 75.8 0.0 0.0 26.7% 28.2%

2 81% 81% - Improved HX 32.5 3.7 32.3 3.7 $3,285 3,433.8 $73 $0 0 75.8 0.0 0.0 20.6% 48.8%

3 82% 82% - Improved HX, More Effective Insulation (Combustion Chamber) 32.3 3.7 32.1 3.7 $3,344 3,462.5 $73 $0 0 75.8 0.0 0.0 28.2% 77.0%

4 83% 83% - Power Venting 31.8 8.5 31.6 8.5 $3,484 3,570.2 $74 $0 0 76.8 0.0 0.0 2.5% 79.5%

5 84% 84% - Power Venting, Improved HX 31.6 8.5 31.3 8.4 $3,594 3,658.0 $74 $0 0 76.8 0.0 0.0 11.5% 91.0%

6 86% 86% - Sealed Combustion, Improved HX 31.0 8.4 30.6 8.3 $4,146 4,160.3 $105 $0 0 105.3 0.0 0.0 7.7% 98.7%

7 90% 90% - Sealed Combustion, Condensing 29.8 8.1 29.3 8.0 $5,032 5,034.9 $105 $0 0 105.3 0.0 0.0 0.0% 98.7%

8 95% 95% - Sealed Combustion, Condensing, Improved HX 28.4 7.9 27.8 7.7 $5,283 5,283.1 $105 $0 0 105.3 0.0 0.0 1.3% 100.0%

LCC Inputs

Market Average values refer to values that would result with a standard Market Shares

at the given EL

Market Share 

in 2013

Cumulative 

market share

0900006480eb89bf.xlsx Julie Osborn 7/18/20112:08 PM
DRAFT

0900006480eb89bf.xlsx Julie Osborn 7/18/20112:08 PM
DRAFT

Annualized Repair Costs 1

Annual 

Gas Use

 Electricity 

Use

Annual 

Gas Use

 Electricity 

Use

Annual 

Maint. Cost

Repair 

Cost Repair

 (MMBtu) (kWh) (MMBtu) (kWh) 2009$ 2009$ Year

34.1 2.3 34.1 2.3 $70 $23 7

33.8 2.3 33.7 2.3 $70 $23 7

33.0 2.3 32.9 2.3 $70 $23 7

32.7 2.3 32.5 2.3 $70 $23 7

32.0 8.6 31.8 8.5 $70 $35 7

31.7 8.5 31.4 8.4 $70 $35 7

31.0 8.4 30.7 8.3 $102 $35 7

29.8 8.1 29.3 8.0 $102 $35 7

28.4 7.9 27.8 7.7 $102 $35 7

Annual Repair & Maintenance

ON OFF

10% Rebound Effect

0900006480eb89bf.xlsx Julie Osborn 7/18/20112:08 PM
Source: See LCC Chapter 8

Life Expectancy

30 0.0% 0 0.0%

29 0.0% 1 0.0%

28 0.0% 2 0.0%

27 0.0% 3 0.0%

26 0.0% 4 1.1%

25 0.0% 5 3.8%

24 0.0% 6 6.5%

23 0.1% 7 8.9%

22 0.1% 8 10.5%

21 0.3% 9 11.4%

20 0.5% 10 11.4%

19 0.8% 11 10.6%

18 1.3% 12 9.3%

17 2.1% 13 7.7%

16 3.1% 14 6.0%

15 4.5% 15 4.5%

14 6.0% 16 3.1%

13 7.7% 17 2.1%

12 9.3% 18 1.3%

11 10.6% 19 0.8%

10 11.4% 20 0.5%

9 11.4% 21 0.3%

8 10.5% 22 0.1%

7 8.9% 23 0.1%

6 6.5% 24 0.0%

5 3.8% 25 0.0%

4 1.1% 26 0.0%

3 0.0% 27 0.0%

2 0.0% 28 0.0%

1 0.0% 29 0.0%

0 0.0% 30 0.0%

Weibull Lifetime Parameters Derivation

Input Values

Mean Value 10.00

High Value 20.00

Low Value 3.00 Loc.

Percentile of High Value 0.995

Retirement Function

Retirement Probability Retirement Probability
Calculated Values

Likeliest value 8.96

Beta 2.18 SHAPE

Alpha 7.90 SCALE

Fit Parameter for Solver 6.80445E-07
0 100.0% 30 0.0% 1 100.0% 29 0.0% 2 100.0% 28 0.0% 3 100.0% 27 0.0% 4 98.9% 26 0.0% 5 95.1% 25 0.0% 6 88.6% 24 0.0% 7 79.7% 23 0.1% 8 69.1% 22 0.1% 9 57.8% 21 0.2%

10 46.4% 20 0.5%

11 35.8% 19 1.0%

12 26.5% 18 1.8%

13 18.8% 17 3.1%

14 12.8% 16 5.2%

15 8.4% 15 8.4%

16 5.2% 14 12.8%

17 3.1% 13 18.8%

18 1.8% 12 26.5%

19 1.0% 11 35.8%

20 0.5% 10 46.4%

21 0.2%9 57.8%

22 0.1%8 69.1%

23 0.1%7 79.7%

24 0.0%6 88.6%

25 0.0%5 95.1%

26 0.0%4 98.9%

27 0.0%3 100.0%

28 0.0%2 100.0%

29 0.0%1 100.0%

30 0.0%0 100.0%

Survival Probability Survival Probability

% Vintage Retired

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Age (years)

18 19 20
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (Preliminary Analysis), NEMS 2010. Low and High scenarios derived from AEO 2009

New Housing Units (million)

REF LO HI

2008 0.85 0.85 0.85

2009 0.84 0.84 0.84

2010 1.19 1.03 1.36

2011 1.14 0.97 1.32

2012 1.37 1.15 1.60

2013 1.40 1.16 1.65

2014 1.38 1.12 1.63

2015 1.39 1.09 1.69

2016 1.40 1.09 1.71

2017 1.38 1.08 1.69

2018 1.37 1.05 1.71

2019 1.37 1.04 1.71

2020 1.36 1.01 1.71

2021 1.31 0.95 1.67

2022 1.28 0.91 1.65

2023 1.26 0.88 1.64

2024 1.25 0.86 1.64

2025 1.27 0.85 1.68

2026 1.27 0.82 1.70

2027 1.23 0.79 1.69

2028 1.19 0.74 1.65

2029 1.17 0.71 1.63

2030 1.17 0.71 1.62

2031 1.16 0.71 1.61

2032 1.12 0.68 1.55

2033 1.11 0.68 1.54

2034 1.11 0.68 1.54

2035 1.11 0.68 1.55

2036 1.12 0.68 1.56

2037 1.13 0.69 1.56

2038 1.13 0.69 1.57

2039 1.14 0.70 1.58

2040 1.14 0.70 1.59

2041 1.15 0.70 1.60

2042 1.15 0.71 1.60

2043 1.16 0.71 1.61

2044 1.17 0.71 1.62

2045 1.17 0.72 1.63

Projected New Housing Construction 

and Mobile Home Placements

Single Family Starts
scenarios derived from AEO 2009
CPI 2008 215.303

Share LPG in Gas Market 16% CPI 2009 214.537 Regional Weights (From LCC Spreadsheet: RECS Sample)

0.996442 4% 13% 12% 2% 23% 3% 9% 9% 25%

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010, High/Low Scenario derived from AEO 2009

Source: AEO 2010 MHR Forecast

Gas Marginal Heat Rate based on Furnace Load Shape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Electric Marginal Heat Rate (furnace fan) based on refrigerator (base) load shape

Marginal Site to Source Conversion Factor

REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI Elec (Btu/kWh) Scaler Gas LPG/Gas Mix Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat.

2006 $33.84 $33.84 $33.84 $14.66 $14.66 $14.66 $26.15 $26.15 $26.15 $16.54 $16.54 $16.54 2005 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2006 49.95 41.76 28.55 25.37 30.49 25.51 35.88 28.07 36.31 32.40 2006 18.21 16.23 12.84 13.04 17.82 16.06 13.97 12.47 12.46 14.23 2006 29.56 29.15 21.38 21.38 27.18 26.31 26.31 22.72 27.43 24.80

2007 $33.35 $33.35 $33.35 $13.36 $13.36 $13.36 $27.59 $27.59 $27.59 $15.70 $15.70 $15.70 2006 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2007 50.04 41.80 29.18 24.89 30.05 25.04 33.42 27.89 35.43 31.82 2007 16.68 14.90 11.55 11.91 16.13 13.85 12.28 10.87 11.92 12.94 2007 31.19 30.76 22.56 22.56 28.67 27.75 27.75 23.98 28.95 26.25

2008 $34.24 $34.23 $34.25 $13.92 $13.92 $13.92 $31.55 $31.55 $31.55 $16.81 $16.81 $16.81 2007 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2008 51.88 43.58 30.44 25.41 31.26 27.30 37.81 28.82 33.84 33.29 2008 16.79 15.76 12.32 11.80 16.64 14.56 13.34 10.94 12.40 13.48 2008 34.05 33.69 26.37 23.08 32.82 30.87 30.44 28.23 34.34 29.35

2009 $33.05 $32.98 $33.15 $11.79 $11.72 $11.86 $26.73 $26.73 $26.73 $14.24 $14.19 $14.31 2008 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2009 48.00 41.33 28.75 27.02 32.28 27.88 33.35 28.65 32.18 32.33 2009 14.69 12.72 10.28 10.36 13.55 11.68 10.64 10.15 11.25 11.39 2009 28.85 28.55 22.34 19.55 27.81 26.16 25.79 23.93 29.10 24.90

2010 $31.88 $31.63 $32.06 $11.29 $11.11 $11.37 $25.37 $24.88 $25.05 $13.60 $13.37 $13.61 2009 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2010 46.62 39.68 28.17 26.82 29.39 26.97 31.56 27.74 32.56 30.94 2010 14.47 12.10 9.77 9.85 12.96 11.08 10.08 9.87 10.79 10.89 2010 27.07 27.17 21.82 19.25 26.87 25.39 25.18 23.34 26.28 24.01

2011 $30.93 $30.46 $31.27 $12.17 $11.89 $12.31 $25.45 $24.80 $25.06 $14.35 $14.01 $14.41 2010 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2011 43.23 36.86 26.49 25.96 29.21 26.23 29.33 28.49 32.43 29.90 2011 15.09 13.10 10.60 10.75 13.89 11.89 10.97 10.84 11.61 11.78 2011 27.15 27.25 21.90 19.34 26.95 25.48 25.26 23.43 26.36 24.09

2012 $32.16 $31.46 $32.71 $12.26 $11.91 $12.45 $26.61 $25.81 $26.15 $14.61 $14.20 $14.70 2011 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2012 46.39 40.20 27.61 26.27 30.09 26.57 31.03 28.84 32.98 31.08 2012 15.18 13.27 10.66 10.83 14.03 12.00 11.09 10.84 11.65 11.87 2012 28.31 28.41 23.06 20.49 28.11 26.63 26.42 24.58 27.52 25.25

2013 $32.63 $31.82 $33.31 $11.83 $11.43 $12.11 $27.82 $26.93 $27.44 $14.46 $13.98 $14.63 2012 11500 3.37 1.079 1.066 2013 47.32 40.97 27.91 26.49 30.68 26.59 31.18 28.96 33.50 31.47 2013 14.88 12.92 10.30 10.51 13.63 11.67 10.74 10.34 11.07 11.48 2013 29.52 29.62 24.28 21.71 29.33 27.85 27.63 25.80 28.73 26.47

2014 $32.67 $31.68 $33.58 $11.78 $11.40 $12.17 $28.77 $28.34 $28.84 $14.57 $14.18 $14.91 2013 11250 3.30 1.084 1.070 2014 47.61 40.40 28.14 26.73 30.61 26.61 31.23 28.94 33.82 31.49 2014 14.73 12.74 10.26 10.43 13.64 11.71 10.75 10.32 11.00 11.41 2014 30.48 30.58 25.23 22.67 30.28 28.81 28.59 26.76 29.69 27.44

2015 $32.59 $31.60 $33.64 $11.93 $11.53 $12.38 $29.36 $28.87 $29.46 $14.79 $14.38 $15.19 2014 11000 3.22 1.085 1.071 2015 47.29 40.41 28.28 26.58 30.50 26.40 31.39 28.92 33.57 31.43 2015 14.82 12.83 10.41 10.54 13.82 11.92 10.93 10.47 11.16 11.56 2015 31.07 31.17 25.82 23.25 30.87 29.39 29.18 27.34 30.28 28.03

2016 $32.76 $31.78 $33.97 $12.03 $11.59 $12.51 $29.99 $29.40 $30.10 $14.98 $14.51 $15.40 2015 10500 3.08 1.084 1.070 2016 47.05 41.15 28.67 26.58 30.65 26.53 31.91 28.97 33.39 31.64 2016 14.87 12.87 10.49 10.62 13.91 12.03 11.01 10.63 11.31 11.65 2016 31.71 31.81 26.46 23.89 31.51 30.03 29.82 27.98 30.92 28.67

2017 $32.88 $31.70 $34.21 $12.08 $11.56 $12.54 $30.53 $29.90 $30.65 $15.11 $14.57 $15.52 2016 10000 2.93 1.084 1.070 2017 46.97 41.74 28.69 26.62 30.85 26.80 32.16 29.06 33.22 31.80 2017 14.89 12.87 10.51 10.65 13.93 12.05 11.00 10.73 11.42 11.69 2017 32.24 32.34 26.99 24.43 32.04 30.57 30.35 28.52 31.45 29.21

2018 $32.84 $31.49 $34.35 $12.14 $11.58 $12.62 $31.11 $30.49 $31.11 $15.26 $14.68 $15.65 2017 8500 2.49 1.084 1.070 2018 46.85 42.01 28.67 26.54 30.89 26.85 31.99 29.13 32.97 31.78 2018 14.96 12.90 10.58 10.72 13.98 12.11 11.03 10.84 11.52 11.76 2018 32.82 32.92 27.58 25.01 32.63 31.15 30.94 29.10 32.04 29.80

2019 $32.73 $31.31 $34.33 $12.22 $11.62 $12.68 $31.36 $30.54 $31.40 $15.36 $14.73 $15.75 2018 7500 2.20 1.084 1.070 2019 46.78 41.90 28.67 26.44 30.69 26.67 31.98 29.24 32.77 31.68 2019 15.02 12.95 10.65 10.79 14.05 12.21 11.08 10.95 11.61 11.83 2019 33.08 33.18 27.83 25.26 32.88 31.40 31.19 29.35 32.29 30.06

2020 $32.90 $31.39 $34.42 $12.34 $11.77 $12.75 $31.59 $30.61 $31.76 $15.50 $14.86 $15.87 2019 7337 2.15 1.084 1.070 2020 46.84 42.32 28.82 26.51 30.79 26.80 32.18 29.67 32.82 31.84 2020 15.10 13.03 10.76 10.90 14.18 12.35 11.19 11.11 11.76 11.95 2020 33.31 33.41 28.06 25.49 33.11 31.63 31.42 29.58 32.52 30.29

2021 $33.07 $31.65 $34.58 $12.45 $12.02 $12.92 $31.82 $31.10 $32.23 $15.63 $15.16 $16.09 2020 7337 2.15 1.085 1.071 2021 46.84 42.72 29.05 26.55 30.91 26.86 32.29 30.07 32.88 32.01 2021 15.24 13.15 10.88 11.01 14.33 12.52 11.32 11.18 11.82 12.07 2021 33.54 33.64 28.29 25.72 33.34 31.87 31.65 29.82 32.75 30.53

2022 $33.15 $31.76 $34.69 $12.63 $12.20 $13.13 $32.02 $31.22 $32.49 $15.82 $15.32 $16.31 2021 7337 2.15 1.084 1.070 2022 46.99 42.85 29.15 26.58 30.89 26.78 32.49 30.39 32.90 32.08 2022 15.46 13.36 11.08 11.21 14.56 12.76 11.53 11.33 11.92 12.26 2022 33.74 33.84 28.50 25.93 33.55 32.07 31.86 30.02 32.96 30.73

2023 $33.28 $31.69 $35.00 $12.65 $12.13 $13.34 $32.30 $31.58 $33.04 $15.88 $15.32 $16.58 2022 7337 2.15 1.085 1.071 2023 47.15 43.24 29.38 26.48 30.95 26.74 32.67 30.62 32.89 32.20 2023 15.52 13.45 11.15 11.22 14.70 12.92 11.65 11.08 11.79 12.29 2023 34.02 34.12 28.77 26.20 33.82 32.35 32.13 30.30 33.23 31.01

2024 $33.31 $31.45 $35.10 $12.54 $11.80 $13.12 $32.56 $31.39 $33.44 $15.83 $15.02 $16.46 2023 7337 2.15 1.089 1.074 2024 47.03 43.33 29.66 26.41 31.07 26.77 33.00 30.53 32.65 32.28 2024 15.49 13.45 11.09 11.11 14.76 12.99 11.68 10.78 11.44 12.20 2024 34.29 34.39 29.04 26.47 34.09 32.61 32.40 30.56 33.50 31.28

2025 $33.27 $31.37 $35.00 $12.64 $11.84 $13.08 $32.83 $31.61 $33.83 $15.96 $15.09 $16.49 2024 7405 2.17 1.094 1.078 2025 46.73 43.12 29.56 26.22 31.05 26.73 33.21 30.76 32.58 32.26 2025 15.63 13.53 11.15 11.17 14.85 13.08 11.73 10.99 11.57 12.29 2025 34.55 34.65 29.30 26.73 34.35 32.87 32.66 30.82 33.76 31.55

2026 $33.45 $31.47 $35.08 $12.81 $12.05 $13.24 $32.97 $31.79 $34.12 $16.12 $15.30 $16.67 2025 7009 2.05 1.095 1.079 2026 46.81 43.33 29.56 26.08 31.13 26.76 33.52 31.26 32.82 32.40 2026 15.81 13.67 11.32 11.35 14.99 13.22 11.83 11.24 11.78 12.46 2026 34.70 34.80 29.45 26.88 34.50 33.02 32.81 30.97 33.91 31.70

2027 $33.64 $31.51 $35.22 $13.01 $12.21 $13.31 $33.25 $31.76 $34.26 $16.33 $15.42 $16.75 2026 7009 2.05 1.095 1.079 2027 47.16 43.59 29.66 26.01 31.26 26.78 33.84 31.77 32.95 32.57 2027 16.01 13.83 11.50 11.57 15.15 13.37 11.94 11.49 12.04 12.66 2027 34.97 35.07 29.72 27.15 34.77 33.29 33.08 31.24 34.18 31.98

2028 $33.81 $31.67 $35.33 $13.25 $12.53 $13.58 $33.49 $31.79 $34.26 $16.57 $15.69 $16.98 2027 6906 2.02 1.095 1.079 2028 47.45 43.95 29.77 25.96 31.33 26.83 34.21 32.14 33.01 32.73 2028 16.27 14.06 11.76 11.82 15.41 13.64 12.17 11.75 12.25 12.90 2028 35.22 35.32 29.97 27.40 35.02 33.54 33.33 31.49 34.43 32.23

2029 $34.21 $32.06 $35.63 $13.51 $12.84 $13.79 $33.84 $32.40 $34.81 $16.85 $16.05 $17.24 2028 6872 2.01 1.094 1.078 2029 47.89 44.77 30.02 26.01 31.71 27.08 34.93 32.65 33.18 33.13 2029 16.57 14.33 12.01 12.06 15.71 13.95 12.43 11.98 12.49 13.16 2029 35.57 35.67 30.32 27.75 35.37 33.89 33.68 31.84 34.78 32.59

2030 $34.52 $32.41 $35.88 $13.78 $13.20 $14.10 $34.06 $32.62 $35.41 $17.11 $16.39 $17.60 2029 6404 1.88 1.094 1.078 2030 48.42 44.97 30.28 26.16 31.99 27.28 35.59 33.13 33.39 33.46 2030 16.87 14.61 12.30 12.34 16.01 14.31 12.74 12.21 12.71 13.44 2030 35.79 35.89 30.54 27.97 35.59 34.12 33.90 32.07 35.00 32.81

2031 $34.87 $32.74 $36.25 $14.11 $13.52 $14.44 $34.42 $32.96 $35.78 $17.45 $16.71 $17.95 2030 6396 1.87 1.093 1.078 2031 48.93 45.48 30.39 26.32 32.31 27.49 36.26 33.67 33.64 33.81 2031 17.22 14.95 12.63 12.67 16.38 14.70 13.08 12.52 13.01 13.78 2031 36.15 36.25 30.90 28.33 35.95 34.47 34.26 32.42 35.36 33.17

2032 $35.17 $33.02 $36.56 $14.27 $13.67 $14.60 $34.75 $33.27 $36.12 $17.63 $16.89 $18.14 2031 6396 1.87 1.093 1.078 2032 49.25 45.91 30.58 26.54 32.58 27.58 36.86 34.11 33.81 34.11 2032 17.40 15.10 12.77 12.83 16.55 14.83 13.17 12.69 13.18 13.93 2032 36.48 36.58 31.23 28.66 36.28 34.80 34.59 32.75 35.69 33.51

2033 $35.32 $33.16 $36.72 $14.37 $13.76 $14.70 $35.13 $33.64 $36.52 $17.78 $17.03 $18.29 2032 6396 1.87 1.093 1.078 2033 49.44 46.12 30.67 26.46 32.67 27.66 37.24 34.44 33.90 34.26 2033 17.52 15.19 12.85 12.93 16.63 14.90 13.18 12.84 13.31 14.03 2033 36.86 36.96 31.62 29.05 36.67 35.19 34.98 33.14 36.08 33.90

2034 $35.56 $33.39 $36.97 $14.58 $13.97 $14.92 $35.49 $33.99 $36.90 $18.01 $17.25 $18.53 2033 6396 1.87 1.093 1.077 2034 49.57 46.49 31.01 26.53 32.86 27.86 37.54 34.84 34.04 34.49 2034 17.75 15.39 13.07 13.14 16.81 15.12 13.36 13.06 13.56 14.25 2034 37.22 37.32 31.98 29.41 37.03 35.55 35.34 33.50 36.44 34.26

2035 $35.77 $33.58 $37.18 $14.72 $14.10 $15.06 $35.88 $34.35 $37.30 $18.19 $17.43 $18.72 2034 6396 1.87 1.093 1.078 2035 49.91 46.65 31.14 26.85 33.08 27.93 37.87 35.19 34.18 34.71 2035 17.90 15.51 13.24 13.32 16.90 15.34 13.53 13.21 13.73 14.40 2035 37.61 37.71 32.36 29.79 37.41 35.93 35.72 33.88 36.82 34.65

2036 $36.03 $33.82 $37.45 $14.89 $14.27 $15.24 $36.18 $34.65 $37.61 $18.39 $17.62 $18.92 2035 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077

2037 $36.29 $34.07 $37.72 $15.07 $14.44 $15.42 $36.49 $34.94 $37.93 $18.59 $17.81 $19.12 2036 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077

2038 $36.55 $34.32 $37.99 $15.25 $14.61 $15.60 $36.80 $35.24 $38.26 $18.79 $18.00 $19.33 2037 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077

2039 $36.82 $34.57 $38.27 $15.43 $14.78 $15.79 $37.11 $35.54 $38.58 $18.99 $18.19 $19.53 2038 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077

2040 $37.08 $34.82 $38.55 $15.61 $14.96 $15.97 $37.43 $35.84 $38.91 $19.19 $18.39 $19.74 2039 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat.

2041 $37.35 $35.07 $38.83 $15.79 $15.13 $16.16 $37.75 $36.15 $39.24 $19.40 $18.58 $19.95 2040 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2006 49.95 41.76 28.55 25.37 30.49 25.51 35.88 28.07 36.31 32.40 2006 18.21 16.23 12.84 13.04 17.82 16.06 13.97 12.47 12.46 14.23 2006 29.56 29.15 21.38 21.38 27.18 26.31 26.31 22.72 27.43 24.80

2042 $37.62 $35.32 $39.11 $15.98 $15.31 $16.35 $38.07 $36.45 $39.58 $19.61 $18.78 $20.17 2041 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2007 50.04 41.80 29.18 24.89 30.05 25.04 33.42 27.89 35.43 31.82 2007 16.68 14.90 11.55 11.91 16.13 13.85 12.28 10.87 11.92 12.94 2007 31.19 30.76 22.56 22.56 28.67 27.75 27.75 23.98 28.95 26.25

2043 $37.90 $35.58 $39.39 $16.17 $15.49 $16.55 $38.39 $36.76 $39.91 $19.82 $18.99 $20.39 2042 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2008 51.90 43.66 30.47 25.42 31.26 27.31 37.81 28.82 33.84 33.31 2008 16.79 15.76 12.32 11.79 16.64 14.56 13.33 10.95 12.40 13.48 2008 34.05 33.69 26.37 23.08 32.82 30.87 30.44 28.23 34.34 29.35

2044 $38.17 $35.84 $39.68 $16.36 $15.67 $16.74 $38.72 $37.08 $40.25 $20.03 $19.19 $20.61 2043 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2009 48.23 41.42 28.82 27.65 32.34 27.87 33.37 28.75 32.29 32.44 2009 14.77 12.78 10.34 10.44 13.61 11.74 10.70 10.25 11.35 11.46 2009 28.85 28.55 22.34 19.55 27.81 26.16 25.79 23.93 29.10 24.90

2045 $38.45 $36.10 $39.97 $16.55 $15.86 $16.94 $39.05 $37.39 $40.60 $20.25 $19.40 $20.83 2044 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2010 46.84 39.93 28.29 27.69 29.48 27.01 31.63 27.94 32.80 31.13 2010 14.55 12.18 9.85 9.93 13.03 11.15 10.15 9.96 10.87 10.97 2010 26.74 26.84 21.50 18.94 26.55 25.07 24.86 23.02 25.96 23.69

2046 $38.73 $36.36 $40.26 $16.75 $16.05 $17.14 $39.38 $37.71 $40.94 $20.47 $19.61 $21.05 2045 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2011 43.58 37.26 26.82 26.74 29.42 26.43 29.70 28.80 32.81 30.24 2011 15.22 13.23 10.73 10.88 14.03 12.03 11.11 11.00 11.77 11.92 2011 26.75 26.85 21.52 18.96 26.56 25.08 24.87 23.04 25.97 23.70

2047 $39.01 $36.62 $40.55 $16.95 $16.24 $17.34 $39.72 $38.03 $41.29 $20.69 $19.82 $21.28 2046 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2012 46.94 41.05 28.19 27.10 30.44 26.90 31.51 29.45 33.56 31.61 2012 15.39 13.48 10.85 11.02 14.24 12.21 11.30 11.00 11.81 12.06 2012 27.85 27.95 22.62 20.06 27.65 26.18 25.96 24.13 27.06 24.80

2048 $39.29 $36.89 $40.84 $17.15 $16.43 $17.55 $40.06 $38.36 $41.64 $20.91 $20.03 $21.51 2047 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2013 48.05 41.82 28.70 27.33 31.19 27.08 31.69 29.68 34.27 32.11 2013 15.17 13.21 10.58 10.77 13.93 11.96 11.04 10.62 11.34 11.76 2013 29.14 29.24 23.91 21.35 28.95 27.47 27.26 25.43 28.36 26.10

2049 $39.58 $37.16 $41.14 $17.35 $16.62 $17.76 $40.40 $38.68 $42.00 $21.14 $20.25 $21.74 2048 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2014 48.70 41.34 29.21 27.69 31.34 27.33 32.08 29.90 34.80 32.36 2014 15.16 13.16 10.66 10.82 14.08 12.14 11.18 10.68 11.34 11.81 2014 30.55 30.65 25.30 22.73 30.35 28.88 28.66 26.82 29.76 27.51

2050 $39.86 $37.43 $41.44 $17.56 $16.82 $17.97 $40.74 $39.01 $42.36 $21.36 $20.46 $21.97 2049 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2015 48.54 41.28 29.50 27.56 31.42 27.32 32.24 30.25 34.70 32.44 2015 15.25 13.26 10.84 10.96 14.30 12.38 11.39 10.95 11.61 12.00 2015 31.17 31.27 25.92 23.35 30.97 29.50 29.28 27.44 30.38 28.14

2051 $40.15 $37.70 $41.74 $17.76 $17.02 $18.18 $41.09 $39.35 $42.72 $21.59 $20.68 $22.21 2050 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2016 48.42 42.47 29.94 27.58 31.72 27.57 33.04 30.27 34.66 32.82 2016 15.36 13.32 10.95 11.06 14.42 12.51 11.49 11.12 11.78 12.12 2016 31.82 31.92 26.57 24.00 31.62 30.14 29.93 28.09 31.03 28.79

2052 $40.44 $37.97 $42.04 $17.97 $17.22 $18.39 $41.44 $39.68 $43.08 $21.83 $20.91 $22.45 2051 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2017 48.52 43.32 30.16 27.75 32.04 28.01 33.40 30.45 34.53 33.11 2017 15.37 13.32 10.98 11.10 14.42 12.53 11.47 11.24 11.86 12.16 2017 32.37 32.47 27.12 24.55 32.17 30.69 30.48 28.64 31.58 29.35

2053 $40.74 $38.25 $42.35 $18.18 $17.42 $18.61 $41.79 $40.02 $43.45 $22.06 $21.13 $22.69 2052 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2018 48.29 43.92 30.49 27.76 32.42 28.31 33.27 30.47 34.30 33.28 2018 15.45 13.36 11.03 11.18 14.45 12.57 11.49 11.40 11.99 12.23 2018 32.83 32.93 27.58 25.01 32.63 31.15 30.94 29.10 32.04 29.81

2054 $41.03 $38.53 $42.65 $18.40 $17.63 $18.83 $42.15 $40.36 $43.82 $22.30 $21.36 $22.93 2053 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2019 47.96 43.73 30.57 27.74 32.46 28.29 33.30 30.78 34.17 33.29 2019 15.48 13.40 11.10 11.25 14.51 12.64 11.52 11.48 12.07 12.29 2019 33.11 33.21 27.87 25.30 32.92 31.44 31.23 29.39 32.33 30.10

2055 $41.33 $38.80 $42.96 $18.62 $17.84 $19.05 $42.51 $40.70 $44.19 $22.54 $21.59 $23.18 2054 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2020 47.81 44.13 30.49 27.92 32.50 28.42 33.51 31.21 34.12 33.40 2020 15.60 13.46 11.11 11.23 14.59 12.74 11.58 11.56 12.15 12.35 2020 33.48 33.58 28.23 25.66 33.29 31.81 31.59 29.76 32.69 30.48

2056 $41.63 $39.09 $43.28 $18.84 $18.05 $19.28 $42.87 $41.05 $44.57 $22.78 $21.82 $23.43 2055 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2021 48.08 44.51 30.48 27.98 32.56 28.53 33.71 31.59 34.22 33.55 2021 15.78 13.63 11.30 11.45 14.75 12.92 11.72 11.70 12.36 12.53 2021 33.95 34.05 28.70 26.12 33.75 32.27 32.06 30.22 33.16 30.95

2057 $41.93 $39.37 $43.59 $19.06 $18.26 $19.50 $43.23 $41.40 $44.95 $23.03 $22.06 $23.68 2056 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2022 48.41 44.50 30.41 27.97 32.46 28.40 33.94 32.05 34.51 33.60 2022 16.02 13.86 11.52 11.68 15.04 13.11 11.90 11.87 12.51 12.74 2022 34.21 34.31 28.96 26.38 34.01 32.53 32.32 30.48 33.42 31.21

2058 $42.24 $39.66 $43.91 $19.28 $18.48 $19.73 $43.60 $41.75 $45.33 $23.28 $22.30 $23.94 2057 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2023 49.02 45.29 30.71 28.02 32.66 28.41 34.48 32.41 34.59 33.90 2023 16.30 14.19 11.79 11.84 15.53 13.63 12.32 11.69 12.41 12.97 2023 34.77 34.87 29.52 26.94 34.58 33.09 32.88 31.04 33.98 31.78

2059 $42.54 $39.94 $44.22 $19.51 $18.69 $19.97 $43.97 $42.11 $45.72 $23.53 $22.54 $24.20 2058 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2024 48.94 45.35 31.21 28.03 32.92 28.59 35.23 32.24 34.26 34.12 2024 16.14 14.09 11.69 11.67 15.38 13.66 12.33 11.26 11.95 12.79 2024 35.17 35.27 29.91 27.33 34.97 33.49 33.27 31.43 34.37 32.18

2060 $42.85 $40.23 $44.55 $19.74 $18.91 $20.20 $44.35 $42.47 $46.10 $23.78 $22.78 $24.46 2059 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2025 48.17 44.69 31.09 27.86 32.87 28.53 35.47 32.59 34.27 34.05 2025 16.12 14.02 11.62 11.60 15.28 13.64 12.29 11.33 11.95 12.75 2025 35.56 35.66 30.31 27.73 35.37 33.89 33.67 31.83 34.77 32.58

2061 $43.16 $40.52 $44.87 $19.98 $19.14 $20.44 $44.73 $42.83 $46.50 $24.04 $23.03 $24.72 2060 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2026 48.21 44.54 31.15 27.79 32.90 28.52 35.69 32.93 34.41 34.12 2026 16.33 14.19 11.74 11.73 15.55 13.74 12.36 11.47 12.05 12.89 2026 35.85 35.95 30.59 28.01 35.65 34.17 33.96 32.12 35.06 32.87

2062 $43.48 $40.82 $45.19 $20.21 $19.36 $20.68 $45.11 $43.19 $46.89 $24.30 $23.28 $24.99 2061 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2027 48.61 44.66 31.26 27.79 32.93 28.49 35.81 33.41 34.52 34.22 2027 16.41 14.22 11.81 11.87 15.50 13.71 12.31 11.72 12.25 12.97 2027 35.99 36.09 30.73 28.15 35.79 34.31 34.10 32.26 35.20 33.02

2063 $43.79 $41.12 $45.52 $20.45 $19.59 $20.93 $45.49 $43.56 $47.29 $24.56 $23.53 $25.26 2062 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2028 48.59 44.96 31.33 27.78 32.96 28.53 35.90 33.80 34.58 34.31 2028 16.69 14.50 12.01 12.08 15.94 13.90 12.45 11.96 12.46 13.22 2028 36.00 36.10 30.74 28.16 35.80 34.32 34.10 32.27 35.21 33.03

2064 $44.11 $41.41 $45.85 $20.69 $19.82 $21.18 $45.88 $43.93 $47.70 $24.83 $23.78 $25.53 2063 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2029 48.74 45.59 31.42 27.71 33.36 28.81 36.43 34.16 34.68 34.63 2029 16.94 14.71 12.23 12.27 16.16 14.21 12.72 12.12 12.62 13.43 2029 36.54 36.64 31.28 28.71 36.35 34.86 34.65 32.81 35.75 33.58

2065 $44.43 $41.71 $46.19 $20.94 $20.06 $21.43 $46.27 $44.31 $48.10 $25.10 $24.04 $25.81 2064 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2030 49.17 45.42 31.29 27.68 33.60 28.91 37.17 34.89 35.02 34.88 2030 17.25 14.96 12.68 12.73 16.15 14.70 13.17 12.61 13.07 13.80 2030 37.15 37.25 31.89 29.31 36.95 35.47 35.26 33.41 36.36 34.19

2066 $44.75 $42.02 $46.52 $21.18 $20.30 $21.68 $46.66 $44.68 $48.51 $25.37 $24.30 $26.09 2065 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077

2067 $45.08 $42.32 $46.86 $21.43 $20.53 $21.93 $47.06 $45.06 $48.92 $25.64 $24.56 $26.37 2066 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077

2068 $45.40 $42.63 $47.20 $21.69 $20.78 $22.19 $47.46 $45.45 $49.34 $25.92 $24.83 $26.65 2067 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077

2069 $45.73 $42.94 $47.54 $21.94 $21.02 $22.46 $47.87 $45.83 $49.76 $26.20 $25.10 $26.94 2068 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077

2070 $46.07 $43.25 $47.89 $22.20 $21.27 $22.72 $48.27 $46.22 $50.19 $26.48 $25.37 $27.23 2069 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat.

2071 $46.40 $43.56 $48.23 $22.46 $21.52 $22.99 $48.68 $46.62 $50.61 $26.77 $25.64 $27.53 2070 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2006 49.95 41.76 28.55 25.37 30.49 25.51 35.88 28.07 36.31 32.40 2006 18.21 16.23 12.84 13.04 17.82 16.06 13.97 12.47 12.46 14.23 2006 29.56 29.15 21.38 21.38 27.18 26.31 26.31 22.72 27.43 24.80

2072 $46.74 $43.88 $48.58 $22.73 $21.78 $23.26 $49.10 $47.01 $51.04 $27.06 $25.92 $27.82 2071 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2007 50.04 41.80 29.18 24.89 30.05 25.04 33.42 27.89 35.43 31.82 2007 16.68 14.90 11.55 11.91 16.13 13.85 12.28 10.87 11.92 12.94 2007 31.19 30.76 22.56 22.56 28.67 27.75 27.75 23.98 28.95 26.25

2008 51.86 43.59 30.43 25.42 31.27 27.31 37.80 28.82 33.83 33.29 2008 16.79 15.76 12.32 11.80 16.64 14.56 13.33 10.94 12.40 13.48 2008 34.05 33.69 26.37 23.08 32.82 30.87 30.44 28.23 34.34 29.35

2009 47.86 41.22 28.65 27.02 32.24 27.85 33.26 28.58 32.11 32.27 2009 14.63 12.65 10.21 10.29 13.48 11.61 10.57 10.08 11.18 11.33 2009 28.85 28.55 22.34 19.55 27.81 26.16 25.79 23.93 29.10 24.90

2010 46.29 39.29 27.90 26.67 29.19 26.78 31.26 27.53 32.36 30.70 2010 14.28 11.92 9.60 9.69 12.76 10.88 9.88 9.71 10.64 10.71 2010 26.57 26.67 21.33 18.77 26.37 24.89 24.68 22.85 25.78 23.51

2011 42.64 36.00 26.03 25.72 28.81 25.90 28.74 28.09 32.06 29.44 2011 14.80 12.82 10.32 10.48 13.59 11.60 10.68 10.57 11.36 11.50 2011 26.49 26.59 21.26 18.70 26.29 24.82 24.61 22.78 25.71 23.44

2012 45.58 38.93 26.89 25.92 29.48 26.04 30.18 28.31 32.44 30.40 2012 14.83 12.93 10.32 10.50 13.67 11.65 10.75 10.48 11.32 11.52 2012 27.50 27.60 22.28 19.73 27.31 25.84 25.62 23.80 26.72 24.46

2013 46.45 39.46 26.94 25.97 29.92 25.92 30.49 28.34 32.92 30.68 2013 14.46 12.51 9.90 10.11 13.21 11.26 10.33 9.96 10.71 11.07 2013 28.62 28.72 23.40 20.84 28.42 26.95 26.74 24.91 27.84 25.58

2014 46.72 38.40 26.79 26.15 29.71 25.77 30.47 28.16 33.20 30.52 2014 14.36 12.39 9.89 10.07 13.26 11.34 10.38 9.90 10.61 11.04 2014 30.04 30.14 24.81 22.24 29.84 28.37 28.15 26.32 29.26 26.99

2015 46.24 38.42 27.33 25.97 29.59 25.64 30.38 28.15 32.87 30.47 2015 14.41 12.45 10.03 10.16 13.42 11.53 10.54 10.05 10.76 11.16 2015 30.57 30.67 25.34 22.78 30.38 28.90 28.69 26.86 29.79 27.53

2016 45.90 39.65 27.74 25.95 29.71 25.72 31.07 27.96 32.54 30.72 2016 14.44 12.46 10.07 10.20 13.49 11.61 10.59 10.11 10.83 11.21 2016 31.11 31.21 25.87 23.31 30.91 29.44 29.22 27.39 30.32 28.07

2017 45.62 40.08 27.59 25.84 29.67 25.79 31.25 27.93 32.09 30.70 2017 14.38 12.39 10.03 10.16 13.42 11.55 10.51 10.15 10.87 11.18 2017 31.61 31.71 26.37 23.81 31.41 29.94 29.72 27.89 30.82 28.57

2018 45.27 40.25 27.36 25.67 29.57 25.67 30.70 27.81 31.71 30.49 2018 14.38 12.36 10.02 10.17 13.40 11.53 10.45 10.26 10.96 11.19 2018 32.20 32.30 26.96 24.40 32.00 30.52 30.31 28.48 31.41 29.16

2019 45.07 39.86 27.34 25.48 29.22 25.49 30.63 27.87 31.58 30.30 2019 14.40 12.38 10.07 10.21 13.45 11.60 10.49 10.31 11.02 11.24 2019 32.25 32.35 27.02 24.46 32.06 30.58 30.37 28.54 31.47 29.22

2020 45.12 40.58 27.53 25.48 29.10 25.54 30.77 28.16 31.40 30.39 2020 14.55 12.50 10.16 10.27 13.61 11.81 10.65 10.46 11.18 11.37 2020 32.32 32.42 27.09 24.53 32.12 30.65 30.44 28.60 31.54 29.29

2021 45.51 41.15 27.68 25.52 29.24 25.57 31.05 28.66 31.56 30.62 2021 14.79 12.74 10.45 10.56 13.89 12.13 10.93 10.66 11.40 11.63 2021 32.81 32.91 27.58 25.01 32.61 31.14 30.93 29.09 32.03 29.78

2022 45.80 41.26 27.68 25.53 29.18 25.37 31.32 29.22 31.70 30.70 2022 14.99 12.93 10.62 10.74 14.16 12.32 11.09 10.80 11.50 11.81 2022 32.93 33.03 27.70 25.13 32.73 31.26 31.04 29.21 32.15 29.90

2023 45.71 41.06 27.77 25.37 28.99 25.10 31.63 29.10 31.62 30.63 2023 14.96 12.92 10.59 10.68 14.20 12.35 11.07 10.53 11.32 11.75 2023 33.30 33.40 28.06 25.50 33.10 31.62 31.41 29.58 32.51 30.27

2024 45.26 40.76 27.87 25.18 28.83 24.87 31.57 28.95 31.12 30.45 2024 14.67 12.64 10.40 10.44 13.82 12.24 10.94 10.11 10.86 11.46 2024 33.10 33.20 27.87 25.31 32.91 31.43 31.22 29.39 32.32 30.08

2025 44.95 40.52 27.87 25.02 28.73 24.73 31.32 29.18 31.09 30.34 2025 14.75 12.66 10.41 10.46 13.81 12.26 10.93 10.31 10.94 11.50 2025 33.32 33.42 28.09 25.53 33.12 31.65 31.43 29.60 32.54 30.30

2026 44.98 40.93 28.09 24.94 28.81 24.72 30.75 29.58 31.17 30.37 2026 15.02 12.90 10.54 10.60 14.20 12.37 11.00 10.50 11.08 11.69 2026 33.50 33.60 28.27 25.71 33.31 31.83 31.62 29.79 32.72 30.49

2027 45.34 41.01 27.97 24.74 28.78 24.57 31.20 29.67 31.17 30.40 2027 15.15 13.01 10.73 10.81 14.24 12.59 11.15 10.73 11.34 11.86 2027 33.47 33.57 28.24 25.68 33.27 31.80 31.59 29.76 32.69 30.46

2028 45.88 41.30 27.81 24.58 28.78 24.49 31.71 30.15 31.30 30.53 2028 15.51 13.34 11.06 11.12 14.60 12.97 11.49 11.03 11.59 12.19 2028 33.50 33.60 28.28 25.72 33.31 31.83 31.62 29.79 32.73 30.50

2029 46.30 42.26 27.94 24.50 29.08 24.64 32.60 30.72 31.44 30.92 2029 15.82 13.62 11.40 11.47 14.82 13.32 11.81 11.38 11.95 12.51 2029 34.11 34.21 28.88 26.33 33.92 32.44 32.23 30.40 33.33 31.11

2030 47.05 42.59 28.13 24.49 29.41 24.81 33.58 31.15 31.63 31.29 2030 16.24 13.98 11.79 11.85 15.16 13.75 12.17 11.76 12.31 12.89 2030 34.33 34.43 29.10 26.55 34.14 32.66 32.45 30.62 33.55 31.33

NG/LPG Price (2009$/MBTU)

Average Energy Prices Weighted NG + LPG LPG Regional Price Forecasts

Projected Energy Prices and Site to Source 

Conversion Factors

Electricity Price (2009$ / MMBTU) Gas Price (2009$ / MMBtu) LPG Price (2009$/MBTU)

Average Energy Prices

(in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu)

(in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu)

Updated Regional Residential Electricity Price Forecasts - Low Growth Scenario

Updated Regional Residential LPG Price Forecasts - High Growth Scenario

Updated Regional Residential Natural Gas Price Forecasts - Low Growth Scenario Updated Regional Residential LPG Price Forecasts - Low Growth Scenario

Electricity Regional Price Forecasts

Updated Regional Residential Electricity Price Forecasts - High Growth Scenario

Natural Gas Regional Price Forecasts

Updated Regional Residential Natural Gas Price Forecasts - High Growth Scenario

(in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu)
Discount Factor

2013 0.816298

2014 0.762895

2015 0.712986

2016 0.666342

2017 0.62275

2018 0.582009

2019 0.543934

2020 0.508349

2021 0.475093

2022 0.444012

2023 0.414964

2024 0.387817

2025 0.362446

2026 0.338735

2027 0.316574

2028 0.295864

2029 0.276508

2030 0.258419

2031 0.241513

2032 0.225713

2033 0.210947

2034 0.197147

2035 0.184249

2036 0.172195

2037 0.16093

2038 0.150402

2039 0.140563

2040 0.131367

2041 0.122773

2042 0.114741

2043 0.107235

2044 0.100219

2045 0.093663

2046 0.087535

2047 0.081809

2048 0.076457

2049 0.071455

2050 0.06678

2051 0.062412

2052 0.058329

2053 0.054513

2054 0.050946

2055 0.047613

2056 0.044499

2057 0.041587

2058 0.038867

2059 0.036324

2060 0.033948

2061 0.031727

2062 0.029651

Discount Factor
2063 0.027711

2064 0.025899
0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Millions

First Time Owners

New Housing Installations

Modeled Replacements

Historical Data
$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

2015 2025 2035 2045

Billions of 2009 Dollars

Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 1

Energy Cost Savings

Equipment Cost Savings

Maintenance Cost Savings

Net Savings

-$0.01

-$0.01

$0.00

$0.01

$0.01

$0.02

$0.02

2015 2025 2035

Billions of 2009 Dollars

Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 3

Energy Cost Savings

Equipment Cost Savings

Maintenance Cost Savings

Net Savings
-$0.3

-$0.2

-$0.1

$0.0

$0.1

$0.2

$0.3

2015 2025 2035 2045

Billions of 2009 Dollars

Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 5

Maintenance Cost Savings

Equipment Cost Savings

Energy Cost Savings

Net Savings

-$0.4

-$0.3

-$0.2

-$0.1

$0.0

$0.1

$0.2

2015 2025 2035 2045

Billions of 2007 Dollars

Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 7

Maintenance Cost Savings

Equipment Cost Savings

Energy Cost Savings

Net Savings
2045

$0.0

$0.0

$0.0

$0.0

$0.0

$0.0

$0.0

$0.0

$0.0

2015 2025 2035

Billions of 2009 Dollars

Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 4

Maintenance Cost Savings

Equipment Cost Savings

Energy Cost Savings

Net Savings

2045

-$0.002

$0.000

$0.002

$0.004

$0.006

$0.008

$0.010

2015 2025 2035

Billions of 2009 Dollars

Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 2

Energy Cost Savings

Equipment Cost Savings

Maintenance Cost Savings

Net Savings
2045

ance Cost Savings

ent Cost Savings

Cost Savings

-$0.3

-$0.2

-$0.2

-$0.1

-$0.1

$0.0

$0.1

$0.1

2015 2025 2035

Billions of 2009 Dollars

Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 6

Maintenance Cost Savings

Equipment Cost Savings

Energy Cost Savings

Net Savings

2045

-$0.5

-$0.4

-$0.3

-$0.2

-$0.1

$0.0

$0.1

$0.2

$0.3

2015 2025 2035

Billions of 2007 Dollars

Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 8

Maintenance Cost Savings

Equipment Cost Savings

Energy Cost Savings

Net Savings
2045

2045
2045

ard Level 6

2045