# DRAFT

Pool Heater National Energy Impacts Author: Virginie Letschert Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

COLOR SCHEMEExtrapolation Input from Engineering and LCC Analysis

WORKSHEET DESCRIPTION National Impacts Summary Tables and Charts of Primary Energy Savings and economic Impacts for All Product Classes

Base Case Consumption Calculation of Base Case Primary Energy Savings for all Product Classes NIA Calculation of Primary Energy Savings and economic Impacts for Pool Heaters Shipments Forecast Calculation of Base Case Shipments for all Product Classes LCC Inputs Design Option Input Data: Associated Costs and Unit Energy Consumption Retirement Function Probability Function Determining Replacement of Equipment New Housing Forecast Forecast of New Housing Energy Prices and Site to SourceForecasts of Energy Prices and Site-Source Conversion Factors Discount Factor Discount Factor Forecast This sheet allows the user to select from a variety of parameters to define the scenario for which they wish to calculate the NES and NPV. Parameters include the national discount rate and the energy price scenario

0900006480eb89bf.xlsx Julie Osborn 7/18/20112:08 PM

# DRAFT

This sheet allows the user to select from a variety of parameters to define the scenario for which they wish to calculate the NES and NPV. Parameters include the national discount rate and the energy price scenario

0900006480eb89bf.xlsx Julie Osborn 7/18/20112:08 PM

# National Impacts Analysis Spreadsheet Flow Chart

LCC Inputs

NIA ShipmentsForecast

National Impacts Summary Historicaldata and user input worksheets

NES model and accounting worksheets

Data outputand summary worksheets

# National Impacts Analysis Spreadsheet Flow Chart

Retirement

New Housing Forecast

ShipmentsForecast

Base Case

Consumption

## DRAFT

Discount Rate 7%Reference Case 1 Current Year 2010Low Economic Growth3 Economic Growth High Economic Growth



## Efficiency Levels by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6 Shipment Weighted Average Efficiency Max NPVHighest Efficiency Level with Positive NPVInterim Max-Tech Max-Tech

Pool Heater 2 3 4 5 6 8 

## Efficiency by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6
Pool Heater 81% 82% 83% 84% 86% 95% 

## NES Results by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6
Pool Heater 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.22 

## NES (Discounted) Results by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6
Pool Heater 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 

## NPV Incremental Total Installed Cost Results by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6
Pool Heater 0.01 0.07 0.28 0.45 1.43 3.62 

## NPV Total Operating (Energy+O&M) Costs Results by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6
Pool Heater 0.06 0.11 0.22 0.30 0.04 0.75 

## NPV Results by TSL Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6
Pool Heater 0.04 0.04 -0.06 -0.16 -1.39 -2.87



## Pool Heater

BASE EF 1 EF 2 EF 3 EF 4 EF 5 EF 6 EF 7 EF 8

Design 78% - Baseline - pilot or elect. Ignition 79% -

Improved HX 81% - Improved

HX 82% -

Improved HX, More Effective Insulation83% - Power

Venting84% - Power

Venting, Improved HX 86% - Sealed

Combustion, Improved HX 90% - Sealed

Combustion, Condensing 95% - Sealed

Combustion, Condensing, Improved HX Shipments 2013-2043 (Millions) 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 Incremental Equipment and O&M Costs ($ Billions) 0.002 0.040 0.194 0.832 1.306 5.631 10.352 11.691 Operating Cost Savings ($ Billions) 0.007 0.241 0.436 0.963 1.267 1.937 3.296 4.833 Discounted Incremental Equipment ($ Billions) 0.001 0.014 0.070 0.280 0.452 1.432 3.138 3.622 Discounted Operating Cost Savings (Energy and O&M) ($ Billions) 0.002 0.059 0.107 0.221 0.296 0.039 0.372 0.749 Net Savings, not discounted ($ Billions) 0.005 0.201 0.242 0.131 -0.039 -3.694 -7.056 -6.858 Net Present Value ($ Billions) 0.001 0.045 0.037 -0.059 -0.156 -1.393 -2.766 -2.873 Site Savings 2013- 2043 (Quads) 0.000 0.010 0.018 0.041 0.053 0.081 0.138 0.202 Source Savings 2013- 2043 (Quads) 0.000 0.011 0.020 0.043 0.057 0.087 0.148 0.216 Present Value of Source Savings 2013- 2043 (Quads) 0.000 0.003 0.006 0.013 0.017 0.026 0.044 0.065 

## National Impacts Summary

Efficiency Level

-3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

EF 1EF 2EF 3EF 4EF 5EF 6EF 7EF 8$BillionsQuads National Impacts

-Pool Heater

Source Energy Savings (Quads)

Net Present Value (Billions) Reference Case

0900006480eb89bf.xlsx 7/18/2011

# Shipments (Millions) Remaining Stock (Millions) Gas Elec 1980 0.11 0.11 

# 32.6 0.0 1981 0.11 0.23 

# 32.6 0.0 1982 0.12 0.34 

# 32.6 0.0 1983 0.12 0.46 

# 32.6 0.0 1984 0.12 0.57 

# 32.6 0.0 1985 0.12 0.68 

# 32.6 0.0 1986 0.13 0.79 

# 32.6 0.0 1987 0.13 0.88 

# 32.6 0.0 1988 0.13 0.96 

# 32.6 0.0 1989 0.13 1.03 

# 32.6 0.0 1990 0.13 1.09 

# 32.6 0.0 1991 0.14 1.14 

# 32.6 0.0 1992 0.14 1.18 

# 32.6 0.0 1993 0.14 1.21 

# 32.6 0.0 1994 0.14 1.25 

# 32.6 0.0 1995 0.15 1.27 

# 32.6 0.0 1996 0.15 1.30 

# 32.6 0.0 1997 0.15 1.33 

# 32.6 0.0 1998 0.15 1.35 

# 32.6 0.0 1999 0.16 1.38 

# 32.6 0.0 2000 0.16 1.40 

# 32.6 0.0 2001 0.16 1.43 

# 32.6 0.0 2002 0.17 1.45 

# 32.6 0.0 2003 0.17 1.48 

# 32.6 0.0 2004 0.19 1.52 

# 32.6 0.0 2005 0.23 1.61 

# 32.6 0.0 2006 0.22 1.67 

# 32.6 0.0 2007 0.19 1.70 

# 32.6 0.0 2008 0.16 1.70 

# 32.6 0.0 2009 0.12 1.66 

# 32.6 0.0 2010 0.14 1.63 

# 32.6 0.0 2011 0.14 1.59 

# 32.6 0.0 2012 0.15 1.56 

# 32.6 0.0 2013 0.15 1.54 

# 32.6 0.0 2014 0.19 1.55 

# 32.6 0.0 2015 0.19 1.56 

# 32.6 0.0 2016 0.19 1.59 

# 32.6 0.0 2017 0.19 1.61 

# 32.6 0.0 UEC of Shipments (MMBtu) 

# Base Case Energy

Consumption

# 2018 0.18 1.63 

# 32.6 0.0

2019 0.18 1.65 

# 32.6 0.0 2020 0.18 1.66 

# 32.6 0.0 2021 0.18 1.68 

# 32.6 0.0 2022 0.17 1.68 

# 32.6 0.0 2023 0.17 1.69 

# 32.6 0.0 2024 0.18 1.69 

# 32.6 0.0 2025 0.18 1.69 

# 32.6 0.0 2026 0.18 1.70 

# 32.6 0.0 2027 0.18 1.70 

# 32.6 0.0 2028 0.18 1.70 

# 32.6 0.0 2029 0.18 1.70 

# 32.6 0.0 2030 0.18 1.71 

# 32.6 0.0 2031 0.18 1.71 

# 32.6 0.0 2032 0.18 1.71 

# 32.6 0.0 2033 0.18 1.71 

# 32.6 0.0 2034 0.18 1.71 

# 32.6 0.0 2035 0.18 1.70 

# 32.6 0.0 2036 0.18 1.70 

# 32.6 0.0 2037 0.18 1.70 

# 32.6 0.0 2038 0.18 1.70 

# 32.6 0.0 2039 0.18 1.70 

# 32.6 0.0 2040 0.18 1.70 

# 32.6 0.0 2041 0.18 1.71 

# 32.6 0.0 2042 0.18 1.71 

# 32.6 0.0

Total 2013-2043 5.4 50.2

# Source Energy

(Quads)

0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06

# 0.06

0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

1.81993 TSD Projections 1993 TSDModeled 2009 Source: Shipments data 1981 & 1993 from TSD 1993, 2003-2009 from APSP 1981 0.114 0.114 Historical Shipments Source: Historical Housing Census Data: http://www.census.gov/const/compann.pdf 1990 0.134 0.134 1990 0.134

Housing Forecast AEO2010 Early Release 1996 0.173 0.150 2003 0.168 New Housing Saturation Rate 1.3%Housing Boom (2002-2006) Not replaced fraction 2000 0.21 0.160 % of failing units NOT replaced by owner 29.3% 0.0% 2002 Ratio of New Pool Heaters to New Housing Starts 4.7% 2030 0.356 0.181

1959 1.234 1960 0.995 1961 0.974 1962 0.991 1963 1.012 1964 0.971 1965 0.964 1966 0.779 1967 0.844 1968 0.859 0.899 1969 0.808 0.811 1970 0.802 0.813 1971 1.014 1.151 1972 1.160 1.309 1973 1.197 1.132 1974 0.940 0.888 1975 0.101 0.000 0.000 0.875 0.892 1976 0.103 0.071 0.000 1.034 1.162 1977 0.105 0.144 0.000 1.258 1.451 1978 0.107 0.218 0.000 1.369 1.433 1979 0.110 0.294 0.000 1.301 1.194 1980 0.112 0.371 0.001 0.957 0.111 0.012 0.099 0.112 1% 0.852 13.0% 11.6% 1981 0.114 0.446 0.472 0.003 0.819 0.111 0.010 0.100 0.114 3% 0.705 15.7% 13.5% 1982 0.116 0.519 0.008 0.632 0.108 0.008 0.100 0.116 7% 0.663 16.3% 17.1% 1983 0.118 0.586 0.015 0.924 0.104 0.012 0.092 0.118 12% 1.068 9.7% 11.2% 1984 0.121 0.647 0.472 0.023 1.025 0.098 0.013 0.085 0.121 19% 1.084 9.1% 9.6% 1985 0.123 0.701 0.031 1.073 0.092 0.014 0.078 0.123 25% 1.072 8.6% 8.6% 1986 0.125 0.748 0.040 1.120 0.085 0.014 0.071 0.125 32% 1.179 7.2% 7.6% 1987 0.127 0.788 0.921 0.048 1.123 0.079 0.014 0.065 0.127 38% 1.146 6.9% 7.0% 1988 0.130 0.823 0.056 1.085 0.074 0.014 0.060 0.130 43% 1.081 6.8% 6.8% 1989 0.132 0.852 0.062 1.026 0.069 0.013 0.056 0.132 47% 1.003 6.9% 6.8% 1990 0.134 0.877 1.093 0.068 0.966 0.066 0.012 0.054 0.134 51% 0.895 7.4% 6.8% 1991 0.137 0.899 0.073 0.838 0.064 0.011 0.053 0.137 53% 0.840 7.6% 7.6% 1992 0.139 0.919 0.076 0.964 0.063 0.012 0.051 0.139 55% 1.030 6.1% 6.5% 1993 0.142 0.938 0.687 0.079 1.039 0.063 0.013 0.049 0.142 56% 1.126 5.6% 6.0% 1994 0.144 0.957 0.082 1.160 0.063 0.015 0.048 0.144 57% 1.198 5.2% 5.4% 1995 0.147 0.975 0.084 1.066 0.063 0.013 0.050 0.147 57% 1.076 5.9% 5.9% 1996 0.150 0.993 0.086 1.129 0.064 0.014 0.050 0.150 57% 1.161 5.5% 5.7% 1997 0.152 1.012 0.921 0.087 1.116 0.065 0.014 0.051 0.152 57% 1.134 5.7% 5.8% 1998 0.155 1.030 0.089 1.160 0.066 0.015 0.051 0.155 58% 1.271 5.2% 5.7% 1999 0.158 1.049 0.091 1.270 0.067 0.016 0.051 0.158 58% 1.302 5.1% 5.2% 2000 0.160 1.068 0.093 1.242 0.068 0.016 0.052 0.160 58% 1.231 5.5% 5.4% 2001 0.163 1.087 1.215 0.094 1.256 0.069 0.016 0.053 0.163 58% 1.273 5.4% 5.5% 2002 0.165 1.564 0.136 1.325 0.030 0.017 0.013 0.165 82% 1.359 2.2% 2.2% 2003 0.168 1.591 0.138 1.386 0.030 0.018 0.012 0.168 82% 1.499 2.0% 2.1% 2004 0.193 1.619 0.141 1.532 0.052 0.019 0.033 0.193 73% 1.611 3.2% 3.4% 2005 0.232 1.668 1.743 0.143 1.636 0.089 0.021 0.068 0.232 62% 1.716 5.2% 5.4% 2006 0.215 1.755 0.146 1.655 0.069 0.021 0.048 0.215 68% 1.465 4.7% 4.2% 2007 0.185 1.287 0.105 1.218 0.080 0.015 0.065 0.185 57% 1.046 7.7% 2008 0.161 1.311 0.107 0.819 0.054 0.010 0.044 0.161 66% 0.622 8.7% 2009 0.118 1.316 0.109 0.521 0.009 0.007 0.003 0.118 92% 0.444 2.1% 2010 0.136 1.288 0.111 1.193 0.025 0.015 0.010 0.136 82% 1.193 2.1% 2011 0.139 1.269 0.115 1.139 0.024 0.014 0.009 0.139 83% 1.139 2.1% 2012 0.148 1.248 0.119 1.371 0.029 0.017 0.011 0.148 81% 1.371 2.1% 2013 0.152 1.230 0.123 1.401 0.029 0.018 0.011 0.152 81% 1.401 2.1% 2014 0.190 1.212 0.126 1.379 0.064 0.017 0.047 0.190 66% 1.379 4.7% 2015 0.191 1.219 0.126 1.389 0.065 0.018 0.047 0.191 66% 1.389 4.7% 2016 0.191 1.229 0.126 1.400 0.065 0.018 0.048 0.191 66% 1.400 4.7% 2017 0.188 1.241 0.123 1.383 0.064 0.017 0.047 0.188 66% 1.383 4.7% 2018 0.184 1.253 0.120 1.375 0.064 0.017 0.047 0.184 65% 1.375 4.7% 2019 0.181 1.266 0.117 1.374 0.064 0.017 0.047 0.181 65% 1.374 4.7% 2020 0.178 1.279 0.115 1.356 0.063 0.017 0.046 0.178 65% 1.356 4.7% 2021 0.175 1.291 0.114 1.310 0.061 0.017 0.045 0.175 65% 1.310 4.7% 2022 0.174 1.300 0.115 1.276 0.060 0.016 0.043 0.174 66% 1.276 4.7% 2023 0.175 1.307 0.116 1.258 0.059 0.016 0.043 0.175 66% 1.258 4.7% 2024 0.177 1.312 0.118 1.251 0.058 0.016 0.043 0.177 67% 1.251 4.7% 2025 0.180 1.317 0.121 1.268 0.059 0.016 0.043 0.180 67% 1.268 4.7% 2026 0.182 1.321 0.123 1.265 0.059 0.016 0.043 0.182 68% 1.265 4.7% 2027 0.182 1.325 0.124 1.235 0.058 0.016 0.042 0.182 68% 1.235 4.7% 2028 0.181 1.328 0.126 1.191 0.056 0.015 0.041 0.181 69% 1.191 4.7% 2029 0.181 1.330 0.126 1.166 0.054 0.015 0.040 0.181 70% 1.166 4.7% 2030 0.181 1.331 0.126 1.169 0.055 0.015 0.040 0.181 70% 1.169 4.7% 2031 0.180 1.333 0.126 1.155 0.054 0.015 0.039 0.180 70% 1.155 4.7% 2032 0.179 1.334 0.126 1.118 0.052 0.014 0.038 0.179 71% 1.118 4.7% 2033 0.178 1.333 0.126 1.106 0.052 0.014 0.038 0.178 71% 1.106 4.7% 2034 0.178 1.333 0.126 1.110 0.052 0.014 0.038 0.178 71% 1.110 4.7% 2035 0.178 1.332 0.127 1.114 0.052 0.014 0.038 0.178 71% 1.114 4.7% 2036 0.179 1.332 0.127 1.120 0.052 0.014 0.038 0.179 71% 1.120 4.7% 2037 0.179 1.331 0.127 1.126 0.052 0.014 0.038 0.179 71% 1.126 4.7% 2038 0.180 1.331 0.127 1.131 0.053 0.014 0.038 0.180 71% 1.131 4.7% 2039 0.180 1.331 0.127 1.137 0.053 0.014 0.039 0.180 71% 1.137 4.7% 2040 0.180 1.331 0.127 1.142 0.053 0.014 0.039 0.180 70% 1.142 4.7% 2041 0.181 1.332 0.127 1.148 0.054 0.015 0.039 0.181 70% 1.148 4.7% 2042 0.181 1.332 0.127 1.154 0.054 0.015 0.039 0.181 70% 1.154 4.7% Modeled Replacements (million) First Time Owners (million) First time Owners + Modeled New Housing Installations Base Case Shipments

Shipments (million) Modeled New Housing Installations (million) SF Completions (million) Calculated Stock Stock

derived from RECS Ratio of New PH Shipments to New Housing Completions Ratio of New PH Shipments to New Housing Starts SF Starts (million) Fraction of Shipments that
are replacements Modeled Shipments (million)0.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600 1.800 2.000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Pool Heater Stock (Million HHs)

Year

RECS vs. Modeled Pool Heater Stock

Modeled PH Stock

RECS PH Stock Data 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Percentage

Year Fraction of New Pool Heater Shipments vs. New Housing Starts

## ShipmentsAffected StockAvg UEC of ShipmentsGas Efficiency,

Site SavingsElec. Eff. Site

SavingsTotal Primary

Savings Discounted

Primary Savings Energy Cost

Savings Equipment

Cost SavingsMaintenance

Cost SavingsNet SavingsNet Present Value Gas Efficiency

Site Savings

Millions Millions MMBtu Quads TWh Quads QuadsBillions $2009Billions $2009 Billions $2009 Billions $2009 Billions

$2009 Quads

2013 0.152 0.15 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 2014 0.190 0.34 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00006 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001 2015 0.191 0.53 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00006 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001 2016 0.191 0.72 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00006 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0002 2017 0.188 0.91 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00006 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0002 2018 0.184 1.09 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00006 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0002 2019 0.181 1.25 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003 2020 0.178 1.39 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003 2021 0.175 1.51 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003 2022 0.174 1.61 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003 2023 0.175 1.69 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2024 0.177 1.75 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2025 0.180 1.79 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2026 0.182 1.83 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2027 0.182 1.85 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2028 0.181 1.86 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2029 0.181 1.87 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2030 0.181 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2031 0.180 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2032 0.179 1.89 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2033 0.178 1.89 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2034 0.178 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2035 0.178 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2036 0.179 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2037 0.179 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2038 0.180 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2039 0.180 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2040 0.180 1.88 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2041 0.181 1.89 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2042 0.181 1.89 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00005 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2043 1.71 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0004 2044 1.53 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003 2045 1.35 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003 2046 1.17 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0003 2047 0.99 32.6 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0002 2048 0.82 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0002 2049 0.66 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001 2050 0.52 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001 

# Pool Heater NES

Base Case

Net Present Value Efficiency Level 1
Energy Savings

## 2051 0.39 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001

2052 0.29 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001 2053 0.21 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 2054 0.14 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 2055 0.09 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 2056 0.06 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 2057 0.04 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 2058 0.02 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 2059 0.01 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 2060 0.01 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 2061 0.00 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 2062 0.00 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 2063 0.00 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 2064 0.00 32.6 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000

## Elec. Eff. Site

Savings Total Primary

Savings Discounted

Primary Savings Energy

Cost SavingsEquipment

Cost SavingsMaintenance

Cost SavingsNet SavingsNet Present Value Gas

Efficiency Site SavingsElec. Eff. Site

Savings Total

Primary SavingsDiscounted

Primary SavingsEnergy

Cost SavingsEquipment

Cost SavingsMaintenance

Cost Savings

TWh Quads Quads Billions $2009 Billions

$2009Billions $2009Billions $2009Billions $2009 Quads TWh Quads QuadsBillions $2009 Billions

$2009 Billions

$2009 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 -$0.001 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0001 $0.00 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.0001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0001 $0.00 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.0001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0002 0.000 0.0002 0.0002 $0.00 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.0001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 0.0003 0.000 0.0003 0.0002 $0.00 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.0001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.002 $0.00 0.0004 0.000 0.0004 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0003 0.0001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 0.0004 0.000 0.0005 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0003 0.0002 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 0.0005 0.000 0.0005 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0003 0.0002 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.004 $0.00 0.0005 0.000 0.0006 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0003 0.0002 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.004 $0.00 0.0006 0.000 0.0006 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0002 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 0.0006 0.000 0.0007 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0002 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0007 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0002 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0007 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0002 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0003 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0002 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.02 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.02 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.02 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.02 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.02 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0001 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.008 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0008 0.0001 $0.02 -$0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000 $0.008 $0.00 0.0007 0.000 0.0007 0.0001 $0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0006 0.000 0.0006 0.0001 $0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0003 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.0005 0.000 0.0006 0.0001 $0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0003 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 0.0005 0.000 0.0005 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 0.0004 0.000 0.0004 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.004 $0.00 0.0003 0.000 0.0003 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 0.0003 0.000 0.0003 0.0000 $0.01 $0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 0.0002 0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 Net Present Value Energy Savings Energy Savings Efficiency Level 2

Net Present Value Efficiency Level 3

## 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.002 $0.00 0.0002 0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.002 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.000

## Net

SavingsNet Present

Value Gas

Efficiency Site SavingsElec. Eff. Site

Savings Total

Primary SavingsDiscounted

Primary SavingsEnergy Cost

Savings Equipment

Cost SavingsMaintenance

Cost SavingsNet SavingsNet Present Value Gas

Efficiency Site SavingsElec. Eff.

Site Savings Total

Primary SavingsDiscounted

Primary SavingsEnergy

Cost Savings
Billions $2009Billions $2009 Quads TWh Quads Quads Billions $2009 Billions

$2009 Billions $2009Billions $2009Billions $2009 Quads TWh Quads Quads Billions $2009 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 -0.001 0.0001 0.0001 $0.00 -$0.02 $0.000 -$0.02 -$0.02 0.0002-0.001 0.0002 0.0001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.0003 -0.002 0.0003 0.0002 $0.005 -$0.03 $0.000 -$0.02 -$0.02 0.0004-0.002 0.0004 0.0003 $0.006 $0.00 $0.00 0.0005 -0.003 0.0005 0.0003 $0.008 -$0.03 -$0.001 -$0.02 -$0.01 0.0006-0.003 0.0006 0.0005 $0.010 $0.00 $0.00 0.0006 -0.003 0.0007 0.0004 $0.010 -$0.03 -$0.001 -$0.02 -$0.01 0.0008-0.003 0.0009 0.0006 $0.014 $0.00 $0.00 0.0008 -0.004 0.0008 0.0005 $0.013 -$0.03 -$0.001 -$0.01 -$0.01 0.0011-0.004 0.0011 0.0007 $0.017 $0.00 $0.00 0.0010 -0.005 0.0010 0.0006 $0.016 -$0.03 -$0.001 -$0.01 -$0.01 0.0013-0.005 0.0013 0.0008 $0.021 $0.00 $0.00 0.0011 -0.006 0.0011 0.0006 $0.018 -$0.03 -$0.001 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0014-0.006 0.0015 0.0008 $0.024 $0.00 $0.00 0.0012 -0.007 0.0013 0.0006 $0.021 -$0.03 -$0.001 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0016-0.007 0.0017 0.0009 $0.027 $0.00 $0.00 0.0013 -0.007 0.0014 0.0007 $0.023 -$0.03 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00 0.0018-0.007 0.0018 0.0009 $0.030 $0.00 $0.00 0.0014 -0.008 0.0015 0.0007 $0.024 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0019-0.008 0.0019 0.0009 $0.032 $0.01 $0.00 0.0015 -0.008 0.0016 0.0006 $0.026 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0020-0.008 0.0020 0.0008 $0.034 $0.01 $0.00 0.0016 -0.008 0.0016 0.0006 $0.026 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0020-0.008 0.0021 0.0008 $0.035 $0.01 $0.00 0.0016 -0.009 0.0017 0.0006 $0.027 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0021-0.009 0.0022 0.0008 $0.036 $0.01 $0.00 0.0016 -0.009 0.0017 0.0006 $0.028 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0021-0.009 0.0022 0.0008 $0.037 $0.01 $0.00 0.0016 -0.009 0.0017 0.0005 $0.029 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0021-0.009 0.0023 0.0007 $0.038 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0005 $0.029 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0007 $0.039 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0005 $0.030 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0006 $0.040 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0005 $0.031 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0006 $0.040 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0004 $0.031 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0006 $0.041 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0004 $0.032 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0005 $0.042 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0004 $0.032 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0005 $0.042 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0003 $0.032 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0005 $0.043 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0003 $0.033 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0004 $0.043 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0003 $0.033 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0004 $0.044 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0003 $0.033 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0004 $0.044 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0003 $0.034 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0003 $0.044 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0002 $0.034 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0003 $0.045 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0002 $0.035 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0003 $0.045 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0002 $0.035 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0003 $0.046 $0.01 $0.00 0.0017 -0.009 0.0017 0.0002 $0.035 -$0.03 -$0.002 $0.01 $0.00 0.0022-0.009 0.0023 0.0003 $0.047 $0.01 $0.00 0.0015 -0.008 0.0016 0.0002 $0.032 -$0.002 $0.03 $0.00 0.0020-0.008 0.0021 0.0002 $0.043 $0.01 $0.00 0.0014 -0.007 0.0014 0.0001 $0.029 -$0.002 $0.03 $0.00 0.0018-0.007 0.0019 0.0002 $0.038 $0.01 $0.00 0.0012 -0.007 0.0012 0.0001 $0.026 -$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0016-0.006 0.0016 0.0002 $0.034 $0.01 $0.00 0.0010 -0.006 0.0011 0.0001 $0.023 -$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0014-0.006 0.0014 0.0001 $0.030 $0.01 $0.00 0.0009 -0.005 0.0009 0.0001 $0.020 -$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0011-0.005 0.0012 0.0001 $0.026 $0.01 $0.00 0.0007 -0.004 0.0008 0.0001 $0.016 -$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0010-0.004 0.0010 0.0001 $0.022 $0.01 $0.00 0.0006 -0.003 0.0006 0.0000 $0.013 -$0.001 $0.01 $0.00 0.0008-0.003 0.0008 0.0001 $0.018 $0.00 $0.00 0.0005 -0.003 0.0005 0.0000 $0.011 -$0.001 $0.01 $0.00 0.0006-0.002 0.0006 0.0000 $0.014 Energy Savings Net Present Value Efficiency Level 4

Net Present Value Efficiency Level 5
Energy Savings

## $0.00 $0.00 0.0004 -0.002 0.0004 0.0000 $0.008 $0.000 $0.01 $0.00 0.0005-0.002 0.0005 0.0000 $0.011

$0.00 $0.00 0.0003 -0.001 0.0003 0.0000 $0.006 $0.000 $0.01 $0.00 0.0003-0.001 0.0004 0.0000 $0.008 $0.00 $0.00 0.0002 -0.001 0.0002 0.0000 $0.004 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0002-0.001 0.0003 0.0000 $0.006 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 -0.001 0.0001 0.0000 $0.003 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0002-0.001 0.0002 0.0000 $0.004 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.002 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.003 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000

## Equipmen

t Cost SavingsMaintenance Cost

Savings Net

Savings Net

Present Value Gas

Efficiency Site SavingsElec. Eff.

Site Savings Total

Primary SavingsDiscounted

Primary SavingsEnergy

Cost SavingsEquipment

Cost SavingsMaintenance Cost

Savings Net

Savings Net

Present Value Gas

Efficiency Site SavingsElec. Eff.

Site Savings Total

Primary SavingsDiscounted

Primary Savings
Billions $2009 Billions $2009Billions $2009Billions

$2009Quads TWh Quads Quads Billions $2009Billions

$2009 Billions $2009Billions $2009Billions

$2009Quads TWh Quads Quads
-$0.04 $0.000 -$0.03-$0.030.0003-0.001 0.0003 0.0002 $0.00 -$0.11 -$0.004 -$0.11 -$0.090.0005-0.001 0.0005 0.0004 -$0.04 $0.000 -$0.04-$0.030.0006-0.002 0.0006 0.0005 $0.010-$0.14 -$0.010 -$0.14-$0.11 0.0010-0.002 0.0011 0.0008 -$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.03-$0.020.0009-0.002 0.0010 0.0007 $0.015-$0.14 -$0.016 -$0.14-$0.100.0016-0.002 0.0017 0.0012 -$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.03-$0.020.0013-0.003 0.0013 0.0009 $0.021 -$0.14 -$0.021 -$0.14-$0.090.0022-0.003 0.0023 0.0015 -$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.03-$0.020.0016-0.004 0.0017 0.0010 $0.026-$0.14 -$0.027 -$0.14-$0.090.0027-0.004 0.0029 0.0018 -$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.02-$0.01 0.0019-0.005 0.0020 0.0012 $0.032-$0.14 -$0.032 -$0.14-$0.080.0032-0.005 0.0034 0.0020 -$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.02-$0.01 0.0022-0.006 0.0023 0.0013 $0.037-$0.13 -$0.037 -$0.13-$0.070.0037-0.006 0.0039 0.0021 -$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.02-$0.01 0.0024-0.006 0.0026 0.0013 $0.041 -$0.13 -$0.041 -$0.13-$0.070.0041-0.006 0.0044 0.0022 -$0.04 -$0.001 -$0.01 -$0.01 0.0027-0.007 0.0028 0.0013 $0.045-$0.13 -$0.045 -$0.13-$0.060.0045-0.007 0.0048 0.0023 -$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0028-0.008 0.0030 0.0013 $0.049-$0.13 -$0.048 -$0.13-$0.060.0048-0.007 0.0051 0.0023 -$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0030-0.008 0.0031 0.0013 $0.051 -$0.13 -$0.050 -$0.13-$0.050.0050-0.007 0.0053 0.0022 -$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0031-0.008 0.0033 0.0013 $0.053-$0.13 -$0.052 -$0.13-$0.050.0052-0.008 0.0055 0.0021 -$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0032-0.008 0.0033 0.0012 $0.055-$0.13 -$0.053 -$0.13-$0.050.0053-0.008 0.0057 0.0021 -$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0032-0.009 0.0034 0.0012 $0.057-$0.13 -$0.054 -$0.13-$0.040.0054-0.008 0.0058 0.0020 -$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0034 0.0011 $0.058-$0.13 -$0.055 -$0.13-$0.040.0055-0.008 0.0059 0.0019 -$0.04 -$0.002 -$0.01 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0010 $0.059-$0.13 -$0.055 -$0.13-$0.040.0055-0.008 0.0059 0.0017 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0010 $0.061 -$0.13 -$0.055 -$0.13-$0.040.0056-0.008 0.0059 0.0016 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0009 $0.062-$0.13 -$0.055 -$0.13-$0.030.0056-0.008 0.0060 0.0015 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0008 $0.063-$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12-$0.030.0056-0.008 0.0060 0.0014 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0008 $0.064-$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12-$0.030.0056-0.008 0.0060 0.0013 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0007 $0.064-$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12-$0.030.0056-0.008 0.0060 0.0013 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0007 $0.065-$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12-$0.020.0056-0.008 0.0060 0.0012 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0006 $0.066-$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12-$0.020.0056-0.008 0.0060 0.0011 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0006 $0.067-$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12-$0.020.0056-0.008 0.0060 0.0010 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0006 $0.067-$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12-$0.020.0056-0.008 0.0060 0.0010 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0005 $0.068-$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12-$0.020.0056-0.008 0.0060 0.0009 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0005 $0.069-$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12-$0.020.0056-0.008 0.0060 0.0008 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0005 $0.070-$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12-$0.020.0056-0.008 0.0060 0.0008 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0004 $0.070-$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12-$0.01 0.0056-0.008 0.0060 0.0007 -$0.04 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0033-0.009 0.0035 0.0004 $0.071 -$0.13 -$0.056 -$0.12-$0.01 0.0056-0.008 0.0060 0.0007

-$0.002 $0.04 $0.00 0.0030-0.008 0.0032 0.0003 $0.065 -$0.050 $0.01 $0.00 0.0051-0.008 0.0054 0.0006 -$0.002 $0.04 $0.00 0.0027-0.007 0.0028 0.0003 $0.059 -$0.045 $0.01 $0.00 0.0045-0.007 0.0048 0.0005 -$0.001 $0.03 $0.00 0.0024-0.006 0.0025 0.0002 $0.053 -$0.040 $0.01 $0.00 0.0040-0.006 0.0043 0.0004 -$0.001 $0.03 $0.00 0.0021-0.005 0.0022 0.0002 $0.046 -$0.034 $0.01 $0.00 0.0035-0.005 0.0037 0.0003 -$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0017-0.005 0.0018 0.0002 $0.039 -$0.029 $0.01 $0.00 0.0029-0.004 0.0031 0.0003 -$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0014-0.004 0.0015 0.0001 $0.033 -$0.024 $0.01 $0.00 0.0024-0.004 0.0026 0.0002 -$0.001 $0.02 $0.00 0.0012-0.003 0.0012 0.0001 $0.027 -$0.020 $0.01 $0.00 0.0020-0.003 0.0021 0.0001 -$0.001 $0.01 $0.00 0.0009-0.002 0.0010 0.0001 $0.021 -$0.015 $0.01 $0.00 0.0015-0.002 0.0016 0.0001 Efficiency Level 6
Energy Savings Net Present Value Efficiency Level 7
Energy Savings Efficiency Level 5

Net Present Value

## $0.000 $0.01 $0.00 0.0007-0.002 0.0007 0.0000 $0.016 -$0.012 $0.00 $0.00 0.0012-0.002 0.0012 0.0001 $0.000 $0.01 $0.00 0.0005-0.001 0.0005 0.0000 $0.012 -$0.009 $0.00 $0.00 0.0009-0.001 0.0009 0.0001 $0.000 $0.01 $0.00 0.0004-0.001 0.0004 0.0000 $0.009 -$0.006 $0.00 $0.00 0.0006-0.001 0.0007 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0002-0.001 0.0003 0.0000 $0.006 -$0.004 $0.00 $0.00 0.0004-0.001 0.0004 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0002 0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.004 -$0.003 $0.00 $0.00 0.0003 0.000 0.0003 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.003 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0002 0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.002 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.001 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000

## Energy

Cost SavingsEquipmen

t Cost SavingsMaintenance Cost

Savings Net

Savings Net

Present Value Gas

Efficiency Site SavingsElec. Eff.

Site Savings Total

Primary SavingsDiscounted

Primary SavingsEnergy

Cost SavingsEquipmen

t Cost SavingsMaintenance Cost

Savings Net

Savings Net

Present Value
Billions $2009Billions

$2009 Billions $2009Billions $2009Billions

$2009Quads TWh Quads Quads Billions $2009Billions

$2009 Billions $2009Billions $2009Billions

$2009 $0.01 -$0.25 -$0.004 -$0.24-$0.200.0007-0.001 0.0007 0.0006 $0.01 -$0.28 -$0.004 -$0.28-$0.23 $0.016-$0.31 -$0.010 -$0.30-$0.230.0015-0.001 0.0016 0.0012 $0.024-$0.35 -$0.010 -$0.34-$0.26 $0.026-$0.31 -$0.016 -$0.30-$0.21 0.0023-0.002 0.0025 0.0017 $0.038-$0.36 -$0.016 -$0.33-$0.24 $0.035-$0.31 -$0.021 -$0.29-$0.200.0031-0.003 0.0033 0.0022 $0.052-$0.35 -$0.021 -$0.32-$0.22 $0.045-$0.30 -$0.027 -$0.28-$0.180.0040-0.004 0.0042 0.0026 $0.066-$0.35 -$0.027 -$0.31 -$0.19 $0.054-$0.30 -$0.032 -$0.27-$0.160.0047-0.005 0.0050 0.0029 $0.079-$0.34 -$0.032 -$0.29-$0.17 $0.063-$0.29 -$0.037 -$0.27-$0.140.0054-0.005 0.0058 0.0031 $0.092-$0.34 -$0.037 -$0.28-$0.15 $0.071-$0.29 -$0.041 -$0.26-$0.130.0060-0.006 0.0064 0.0033 $0.103-$0.33 -$0.041 -$0.27-$0.14 $0.077-$0.28 -$0.045 -$0.25-$0.120.0066-0.006 0.0070 0.0033 $0.113-$0.33 -$0.045 -$0.26-$0.12 $0.083-$0.28 -$0.048 -$0.24-$0.11 0.0070-0.007 0.0074 0.0033 $0.122-$0.32 -$0.048 -$0.25-$0.11 $0.088-$0.28 -$0.050 -$0.24-$0.100.0073-0.007 0.0078 0.0032 $0.128-$0.32 -$0.050 -$0.25-$0.10 $0.090-$0.28 -$0.052 -$0.25-$0.100.0076-0.007 0.0081 0.0032 $0.133-$0.33 -$0.052 -$0.25-$0.10 $0.094-$0.29 -$0.053 -$0.25-$0.090.0078-0.007 0.0083 0.0030 $0.137-$0.33 -$0.053 -$0.25-$0.09 $0.096-$0.29 -$0.054 -$0.25-$0.080.0079-0.008 0.0085 0.0029 $0.141-$0.34 -$0.054 -$0.25-$0.08 $0.099-$0.29 -$0.055 -$0.25-$0.080.0080-0.008 0.0086 0.0027 $0.145-$0.34 -$0.055 -$0.25-$0.08 $0.101-$0.29 -$0.055 -$0.25-$0.070.0081-0.008 0.0087 0.0026 $0.148-$0.34 -$0.055 -$0.24-$0.07 $0.103-$0.29 -$0.055 -$0.24-$0.070.0081-0.008 0.0087 0.0024 $0.151-$0.34 -$0.055 -$0.24-$0.07 $0.105-$0.29 -$0.055 -$0.24-$0.060.0082-0.008 0.0087 0.0023 $0.154-$0.34 -$0.055 -$0.24-$0.06 $0.107-$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.24-$0.060.0082-0.008 0.0088 0.0021 $0.158-$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.06 $0.109-$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.050.0082-0.008 0.0088 0.0020 $0.159-$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.05 $0.110-$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.050.0082-0.008 0.0088 0.0018 $0.161-$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.05 $0.111-$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.050.0082-0.008 0.0088 0.0017 $0.163-$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22-$0.04 $0.112-$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.040.0082-0.008 0.0088 0.0016 $0.164-$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22-$0.04 $0.113-$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.040.0082-0.008 0.0088 0.0015 $0.166-$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22-$0.04 $0.114-$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.040.0082-0.008 0.0087 0.0014 $0.168-$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22-$0.04 $0.116-$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.030.0082-0.008 0.0087 0.0013 $0.170-$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22-$0.03 $0.117-$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.030.0082-0.008 0.0088 0.0012 $0.171-$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22-$0.03 $0.118-$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.030.0082-0.008 0.0088 0.0012 $0.173-$0.33 -$0.056 -$0.22-$0.03 $0.120-$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.030.0082-0.008 0.0088 0.0011 $0.175-$0.34 -$0.056 -$0.22-$0.03 $0.121-$0.29 -$0.056 -$0.23-$0.030.0082-0.008 0.0088 0.0010 $0.177-$0.34 -$0.056 -$0.21 -$0.02 $0.111 -$0.050 $0.06 $0.01 0.0074-0.007 0.0079 0.0009 $0.162 -$0.050 $0.11 $0.01 $0.100 -$0.045 $0.06 $0.01 0.0066-0.006 0.0071 0.0007 $0.147 -$0.045 $0.10 $0.01 $0.089 -$0.040 $0.05 $0.00 0.0059-0.006 0.0063 0.0006 $0.131 -$0.040 $0.09 $0.01 $0.078 -$0.034 $0.04 $0.00 0.0051-0.005 0.0054 0.0005 $0.115 -$0.034 $0.08 $0.01 $0.067 -$0.029 $0.04 $0.00 0.0043-0.004 0.0046 0.0004 $0.098 -$0.029 $0.07 $0.01 $0.056 -$0.024 $0.03 $0.00 0.0036-0.003 0.0038 0.0003 $0.082 -$0.024 $0.06 $0.00 $0.046 -$0.020 $0.03 $0.00 0.0029-0.003 0.0031 0.0002 $0.067 -$0.020 $0.05 $0.00 $0.036 -$0.015 $0.02 $0.00 0.0022-0.002 0.0024 0.0002 $0.053 -$0.015 $0.04 $0.00 Efficiency Level 8
Energy Savings Net Present Value Efficiency Level 7

Net Present Value

## $0.028 -$0.012 $0.02 $0.00 0.0017-0.002 0.0018 0.0001 $0.041 -$0.012 $0.03 $0.00

$0.021 -$0.009 $0.01 $0.00 0.0013-0.001 0.0013 0.0001 $0.030 -$0.009 $0.02 $0.00 $0.015 -$0.006 $0.01 $0.00 0.0009-0.001 0.0010 0.0001 $0.022 -$0.006 $0.02 $0.00 $0.010 -$0.004 $0.01 $0.00 0.0006-0.001 0.0007 0.0000 $0.015 -$0.004 $0.01 $0.00 $0.007 -$0.003 $0.00 $0.00 0.0004 0.000 0.0004 0.0000 $0.010 -$0.003 $0.01 $0.00 $0.004 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 0.0003 0.000 0.0003 0.0000 $0.007 -$0.002 $0.00 $0.00 $0.003 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00 0.0002 0.000 0.0002 0.0000 $0.004 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.002 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.002 -$0.001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 $0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 $0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.001 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00

# DRAFT

Pool Heater

Efficiency Level Description Rebound ON Market Average Gas UseRebound

ON Market Average Elec UECRebound

OFF Market Average Gas UseRebound

OFF Market Average Elec UseInstalled PriceMarket Average Installed PriceAnnual Maint.

Cost Repair Cost Repair Market Average Maint. Cost Market

Average Repair Cost Market

Average Repair Year (MMBtu) (kWh)(MMBtu)(kWh) 2009$ 2009$ 2009$ 2009$ Year 2009$2009$2009$ 0 78%78% - Baseline - pilot or elect. Ignition 32.7 3.7 32.6 3.7 $3,240 3,426.5 $73 $0 0 75.8 0.0 0.0 1.5% 1.5% 1 79%79% - Improved HX 32.7 3.7 32.6 3.7 $3,260 3,426.8 $73 $0 0 75.8 0.0 0.0 26.7% 28.2% 2 81%81% - Improved HX 32.5 3.7 32.3 3.7 $3,285 3,433.8 $73 $0 0 75.8 0.0 0.0 20.6% 48.8% 3 82%82% - Improved HX, More Effective Insulation (Combustion Chamber) 32.3 3.7 32.1 3.7 $3,344 3,462.5 $73 $0 0 75.8 0.0 0.0 28.2% 77.0% 4 83%83% - Power Venting 31.8 8.5 31.6 8.5 $3,484 3,570.2 $74 $0 0 76.8 0.0 0.0 2.5% 79.5% 5 84%84% - Power Venting, Improved HX 31.6 8.5 31.3 8.4 $3,594 3,658.0 $74 $0 0 76.8 0.0 0.0 11.5% 91.0% 6 86%86% - Sealed Combustion, Improved HX 31.0 8.4 30.6 8.3 $4,146 4,160.3 $105 $0 0 105.3 0.0 0.0 7.7% 98.7% 7 90%90% - Sealed Combustion, Condensing 29.8 8.1 29.3 8.0 $5,032 5,034.9 $105 $0 0 105.3 0.0 0.0 0.0% 98.7% 8 95%95% - Sealed Combustion, Condensing, Improved HX 28.4 7.9 27.8 7.7 $5,283 5,283.1 $105 $0 0 105.3 0.0 0.0 1.3% 100.0% 

# LCC Inputs Market Shares Market A

verage values refer to values that would result with a standard

at the given EL

Market Share in 2013 Cumulative

market share

0900006480eb89bf.xlsx Julie Osborn 7/18/20112:08 PM

# DRAFT

0900006480eb89bf.xlsx Julie Osborn 7/18/20112:08 PM

# DRAFT

Annualized Repair Costs 1

Annual Gas UseElectricity

Use Annual Gas UseElectricity

Use Annual

Maint. CostRepair

Cost Repair

(MMBtu)(kWh)(MMBtu)(kWh) 2009$ 2009$ Year
34.1 2.3 34.1 2.3 $70 $23 7 33.8 2.3 33.7 2.3 $70 $23 7 33.0 2.3 32.9 2.3 $70 $23 7 32.7 2.3 32.5 2.3 $70 $23 7 32.0 8.6 31.8 8.5 $70 $35 7 31.7 8.5 31.4 8.4 $70 $35 7 31.0 8.4 30.7 8.3 $102 $35 7 29.8 8.1 29.3 8.0 $102 $35 7 28.4 7.9 27.8 7.7 $102 $35 7 Annual Repair & Maintenance

ON OFF 10% Rebound Effect

0900006480eb89bf.xlsx Julie Osborn 7/18/20112:08 PM

# Source:See LCC Chapter 8 

# Life Expectancy

30 0.0% 0 0.0% 29 0.0% 1 0.0% 28 0.0% 2 0.0% 27 0.0% 3 0.0% 26 0.0% 4 1.1% 25 0.0% 5 3.8% 24 0.0% 6 6.5% 23 0.1% 7 8.9% 22 0.1% 8 10.5% 21 0.3% 9 11.4% 20 0.5% 10 11.4% 19 0.8% 11 10.6% 18 1.3% 12 9.3% 17 2.1% 13 7.7% 16 3.1% 14 6.0% 15 4.5% 15 4.5% 14 6.0% 16 3.1% 13 7.7% 17 2.1% 12 9.3% 18 1.3% 11 10.6% 19 0.8% 10 11.4% 20 0.5% 9 11.4% 21 0.3% 8 10.5% 22 0.1% 7 8.9% 23 0.1% 6 6.5% 24 0.0% 5 3.8% 25 0.0% 4 1.1% 26 0.0% 3 0.0% 27 0.0% 2 0.0% 28 0.0% 1 0.0% 29 0.0% 0 0.0% 30 0.0%

Weibull Lifetime Parameters Derivation Input Values

Mean Value 10.00 High Value 20.00 Low Value 3.00Loc. Percentile of High Value 0.995



# Retirement Function

Retirement Probability Retirement Probability

# Calculated Values

Likeliest value 8.96 Beta 2.18SHAPE Alpha 7.90SCALE

Fit Parameter for Solver 6.80445E-07

# 0 100.0% 30 0.0%

1 100.0% 29 0.0% 2 100.0% 28 0.0% 3 100.0% 27 0.0% 4 98.9% 26 0.0% 5 95.1% 25 0.0% 6 88.6% 24 0.0% 7 79.7% 23 0.1% 8 69.1% 22 0.1% 9 57.8% 21 0.2% 10 46.4% 20 0.5% 11 35.8% 19 1.0% 12 26.5% 18 1.8% 13 18.8% 17 3.1% 14 12.8% 16 5.2% 15 8.4% 15 8.4% 16 5.2% 14 12.8% 17 3.1% 13 18.8% 18 1.8% 12 26.5% 19 1.0% 11 35.8% 20 0.5% 10 46.4% 21 0.2% 9 57.8% 22 0.1% 8 69.1% 23 0.1% 7 79.7% 24 0.0% 6 88.6% 25 0.0% 5 95.1% 26 0.0% 4 98.9% 27 0.0% 3 100.0% 28 0.0% 2 100.0% 29 0.0% 1 100.0% 30 0.0% 0 100.0% 

# Survival Probability Survival Probability% Vintage Retired

# 0%

2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%



# 01234567891011121314151617 Age (years)

# 181920

# Source:Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (Preliminary Analysis), NEMS 2010. Low and High scenarios derived from AEO 2009
New Housing Units (million)

REF LO HI 

# 2008 0.85 0.85 0.85 

# 2009 0.84 0.84 0.84 

# 2010 1.19 1.03 1.36 

# 2011 1.14 0.97 1.32 

# 2012 1.37 1.15 1.60 

# 2013 1.40 1.16 1.65 

# 2014 1.38 1.12 1.63 

# 2015 1.39 1.09 1.69 

# 2016 1.40 1.09 1.71 

# 2017 1.38 1.08 1.69 

# 2018 1.37 1.05 1.71 

# 2019 1.37 1.04 1.71 

# 2020 1.36 1.01 1.71 

# 2021 1.31 0.95 1.67 2022 1.28 0.91 1.65 2023 1.26 0.88 1.64 2024 1.25 0.86 1.64 2025 1.27 0.85 1.68 2026 1.27 0.82 1.70 2027 1.23 0.79 1.69 2028 1.19 0.74 1.65 2029 1.17 0.71 1.63 2030 1.17 0.71 1.62 2031 1.16 0.71 1.61 2032 1.12 0.68 1.55 2033 1.11 0.68 1.54 2034 1.11 0.68 1.54 2035 1.11 0.68 1.55 2036 1.12 0.68 1.56 2037 1.13 0.69 1.56 2038 1.13 0.69 1.57 2039 1.14 0.70 1.58 2040 1.14 0.70 1.59 2041 1.15 0.70 1.60 2042 1.15 0.71 1.60 2043 1.16 0.71 1.61 2044 1.17 0.71 1.62 2045 1.17 0.72 1.63 

# Projected NewHousing Construction and Mobile Home Placements

Single Family

Starts

# Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (Preliminary Analysis), NEMS 2010. Low and High scenarios derived from AEO 2009CPI 2008 215.303 Share LPG in Gas Market 16% CPI 2009 214.537 Regional Weights (From LCC Spreadsheet: RECS Sample) 0.996442 4% 13% 12% 2% 23% 3% 9% 9% 25% Source:Annual Energy Outlook 2010, High/Low Scenario derived from AEO 2009 Source: AEO 2010 MHR Forecast Gas Marginal Heat Rate based on Furnace Load Shape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Electric Marginal Heat Rate (furnace fan) based on refrigerator (base) load shape Marginal Site to Source Conversion Factor REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI Elec (Btu/kWh)Scaler Gas LPG/Gas Mix Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. 2006 $33.84$33.84 $33.84 $14.66 $14.66 $14.66 $26.15$26.15$26.15$16.54 $16.54 $16.54 2005 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2006 49.95 41.76 28.55 25.37 30.49 25.51 35.88 28.07 36.31 32.40 2006 18.21 16.23 12.84 13.04 17.82 16.06 13.97 12.47 12.46 14.23 2006 29.56 29.15 21.38 21.38 27.18 26.31 26.31 22.72 27.43 24.80 2007 $33.35$33.35 $33.35 $13.36 $13.36 $13.36 $27.59$27.59$27.59$15.70 $15.70 $15.70 2006 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2007 50.04 41.80 29.18 24.89 30.05 25.04 33.42 27.89 35.43 31.82 2007 16.68 14.90 11.55 11.91 16.13 13.85 12.28 10.87 11.92 12.94 2007 31.19 30.76 22.56 22.56 28.67 27.75 27.75 23.98 28.95 26.25 2008 $34.24$34.23 $34.25 $13.92 $13.92 $13.92 $31.55$31.55$31.55$16.81 $16.81 $16.81 2007 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2008 51.88 43.58 30.44 25.41 31.26 27.30 37.81 28.82 33.84 33.29 2008 16.79 15.76 12.32 11.80 16.64 14.56 13.34 10.94 12.40 13.48 2008 34.05 33.69 26.37 23.08 32.82 30.87 30.44 28.23 34.34 29.35 2009 $33.05$32.98 $33.15 $11.79 $11.72 $11.86 $26.73$26.73$26.73$14.24 $14.19 $14.31 2008 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2009 48.00 41.33 28.75 27.02 32.28 27.88 33.35 28.65 32.18 32.33 2009 14.69 12.72 10.28 10.36 13.55 11.68 10.64 10.15 11.25 11.39 2009 28.85 28.55 22.34 19.55 27.81 26.16 25.79 23.93 29.10 24.90 2010 $31.88$31.63 $32.06 $11.29 $11.11 $11.37 $25.37$24.88$25.05$13.60 $13.37 $13.61 2009 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2010 46.62 39.68 28.17 26.82 29.39 26.97 31.56 27.74 32.56 30.94 2010 14.47 12.10 9.77 9.85 12.96 11.08 10.08 9.87 10.79 10.89 2010 27.07 27.17 21.82 19.25 26.87 25.39 25.18 23.34 26.28 24.01 2011 $30.93$30.46 $31.27 $12.17 $11.89 $12.31 $25.45$24.80$25.06$14.35 $14.01 $14.41 2010 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2011 43.23 36.86 26.49 25.96 29.21 26.23 29.33 28.49 32.43 29.90 2011 15.09 13.10 10.60 10.75 13.89 11.89 10.97 10.84 11.61 11.78 2011 27.15 27.25 21.90 19.34 26.95 25.48 25.26 23.43 26.36 24.09 2012 $32.16$31.46 $32.71 $12.26 $11.91 $12.45 $26.61$25.81$26.15$14.61 $14.20 $14.70 2011 11500 3.37 1.075 1.062 2012 46.39 40.20 27.61 26.27 30.09 26.57 31.03 28.84 32.98 31.08 2012 15.18 13.27 10.66 10.83 14.03 12.00 11.09 10.84 11.65 11.87 2012 28.31 28.41 23.06 20.49 28.11 26.63 26.42 24.58 27.52 25.25 2013 $32.63$31.82 $33.31 $11.83 $11.43 $12.11 $27.82$26.93$27.44$14.46 $13.98 $14.63 2012 11500 3.37 1.079 1.066 2013 47.32 40.97 27.91 26.49 30.68 26.59 31.18 28.96 33.50 31.47 2013 14.88 12.92 10.30 10.51 13.63 11.67 10.74 10.34 11.07 11.48 2013 29.52 29.62 24.28 21.71 29.33 27.85 27.63 25.80 28.73 26.47 2014 $32.67$31.68 $33.58 $11.78 $11.40 $12.17 $28.77$28.34$28.84$14.57 $14.18 $14.91 2013 11250 3.30 1.084 1.070 2014 47.61 40.40 28.14 26.73 30.61 26.61 31.23 28.94 33.82 31.49 2014 14.73 12.74 10.26 10.43 13.64 11.71 10.75 10.32 11.00 11.41 2014 30.48 30.58 25.23 22.67 30.28 28.81 28.59 26.76 29.69 27.44 2015 $32.59$31.60 $33.64 $11.93 $11.53 $12.38 $29.36$28.87$29.46$14.79 $14.38 $15.19 2014 11000 3.22 1.085 1.071 2015 47.29 40.41 28.28 26.58 30.50 26.40 31.39 28.92 33.57 31.43 2015 14.82 12.83 10.41 10.54 13.82 11.92 10.93 10.47 11.16 11.56 2015 31.07 31.17 25.82 23.25 30.87 29.39 29.18 27.34 30.28 28.03 2016 $32.76$31.78 $33.97 $12.03 $11.59 $12.51 $29.99$29.40$30.10$14.98 $14.51 $15.40 2015 10500 3.08 1.084 1.070 2016 47.05 41.15 28.67 26.58 30.65 26.53 31.91 28.97 33.39 31.64 2016 14.87 12.87 10.49 10.62 13.91 12.03 11.01 10.63 11.31 11.65 2016 31.71 31.81 26.46 23.89 31.51 30.03 29.82 27.98 30.92 28.67 2017 $32.88$31.70 $34.21 $12.08 $11.56 $12.54 $30.53$29.90$30.65$15.11 $14.57 $15.52 2016 10000 2.93 1.084 1.070 2017 46.97 41.74 28.69 26.62 30.85 26.80 32.16 29.06 33.22 31.80 2017 14.89 12.87 10.51 10.65 13.93 12.05 11.00 10.73 11.42 11.69 2017 32.24 32.34 26.99 24.43 32.04 30.57 30.35 28.52 31.45 29.21 2018 $32.84$31.49 $34.35 $12.14 $11.58 $12.62 $31.11$30.49$31.11$15.26 $14.68 $15.65 2017 8500 2.49 1.084 1.070 2018 46.85 42.01 28.67 26.54 30.89 26.85 31.99 29.13 32.97 31.78 2018 14.96 12.90 10.58 10.72 13.98 12.11 11.03 10.84 11.52 11.76 2018 32.82 32.92 27.58 25.01 32.63 31.15 30.94 29.10 32.04 29.80 2019 $32.73$31.31 $34.33 $12.22 $11.62 $12.68 $31.36$30.54$31.40$15.36 $14.73 $15.75 2018 7500 2.20 1.084 1.070 2019 46.78 41.90 28.67 26.44 30.69 26.67 31.98 29.24 32.77 31.68 2019 15.02 12.95 10.65 10.79 14.05 12.21 11.08 10.95 11.61 11.83 2019 33.08 33.18 27.83 25.26 32.88 31.40 31.19 29.35 32.29 30.06 2020 $32.90$31.39 $34.42 $12.34 $11.77 $12.75 $31.59$30.61$31.76$15.50 $14.86 $15.87 2019 7337 2.15 1.084 1.070 2020 46.84 42.32 28.82 26.51 30.79 26.80 32.18 29.67 32.82 31.84 2020 15.10 13.03 10.76 10.90 14.18 12.35 11.19 11.11 11.76 11.95 2020 33.31 33.41 28.06 25.49 33.11 31.63 31.42 29.58 32.52 30.29 2021 $33.07$31.65 $34.58 $12.45 $12.02 $12.92 $31.82$31.10$32.23$15.63 $15.16 $16.09 2020 7337 2.15 1.085 1.071 2021 46.84 42.72 29.05 26.55 30.91 26.86 32.29 30.07 32.88 32.01 2021 15.24 13.15 10.88 11.01 14.33 12.52 11.32 11.18 11.82 12.07 2021 33.54 33.64 28.29 25.72 33.34 31.87 31.65 29.82 32.75 30.53 2022 $33.15$31.76 $34.69 $12.63 $12.20 $13.13 $32.02$31.22$32.49$15.82 $15.32 $16.31 2021 7337 2.15 1.084 1.070 2022 46.99 42.85 29.15 26.58 30.89 26.78 32.49 30.39 32.90 32.08 2022 15.46 13.36 11.08 11.21 14.56 12.76 11.53 11.33 11.92 12.26 2022 33.74 33.84 28.50 25.93 33.55 32.07 31.86 30.02 32.96 30.73 2023 $33.28$31.69 $35.00 $12.65 $12.13 $13.34 $32.30$31.58$33.04$15.88 $15.32 $16.58 2022 7337 2.15 1.085 1.071 2023 47.15 43.24 29.38 26.48 30.95 26.74 32.67 30.62 32.89 32.20 2023 15.52 13.45 11.15 11.22 14.70 12.92 11.65 11.08 11.79 12.29 2023 34.02 34.12 28.77 26.20 33.82 32.35 32.13 30.30 33.23 31.01 2024 $33.31$31.45 $35.10 $12.54 $11.80 $13.12 $32.56$31.39$33.44$15.83 $15.02 $16.46 2023 7337 2.15 1.089 1.074 2024 47.03 43.33 29.66 26.41 31.07 26.77 33.00 30.53 32.65 32.28 2024 15.49 13.45 11.09 11.11 14.76 12.99 11.68 10.78 11.44 12.20 2024 34.29 34.39 29.04 26.47 34.09 32.61 32.40 30.56 33.50 31.28 2025 $33.27$31.37 $35.00 $12.64 $11.84 $13.08 $32.83$31.61$33.83$15.96 $15.09 $16.49 2024 7405 2.17 1.094 1.078 2025 46.73 43.12 29.56 26.22 31.05 26.73 33.21 30.76 32.58 32.26 2025 15.63 13.53 11.15 11.17 14.85 13.08 11.73 10.99 11.57 12.29 2025 34.55 34.65 29.30 26.73 34.35 32.87 32.66 30.82 33.76 31.55 2026 $33.45$31.47 $35.08 $12.81 $12.05 $13.24 $32.97$31.79$34.12$16.12 $15.30 $16.67 2025 7009 2.05 1.095 1.079 2026 46.81 43.33 29.56 26.08 31.13 26.76 33.52 31.26 32.82 32.40 2026 15.81 13.67 11.32 11.35 14.99 13.22 11.83 11.24 11.78 12.46 2026 34.70 34.80 29.45 26.88 34.50 33.02 32.81 30.97 33.91 31.70 2027 $33.64$31.51 $35.22 $13.01 $12.21 $13.31 $33.25$31.76$34.26$16.33 $15.42 $16.75 2026 7009 2.05 1.095 1.079 2027 47.16 43.59 29.66 26.01 31.26 26.78 33.84 31.77 32.95 32.57 2027 16.01 13.83 11.50 11.57 15.15 13.37 11.94 11.49 12.04 12.66 2027 34.97 35.07 29.72 27.15 34.77 33.29 33.08 31.24 34.18 31.98 2028 $33.81$31.67 $35.33 $13.25 $12.53 $13.58 $33.49$31.79$34.26$16.57 $15.69 $16.98 2027 6906 2.02 1.095 1.079 2028 47.45 43.95 29.77 25.96 31.33 26.83 34.21 32.14 33.01 32.73 2028 16.27 14.06 11.76 11.82 15.41 13.64 12.17 11.75 12.25 12.90 2028 35.22 35.32 29.97 27.40 35.02 33.54 33.33 31.49 34.43 32.23 2029 $34.21$32.06 $35.63 $13.51 $12.84 $13.79 $33.84$32.40$34.81$16.85 $16.05 $17.24 2028 6872 2.01 1.094 1.078 2029 47.89 44.77 30.02 26.01 31.71 27.08 34.93 32.65 33.18 33.13 2029 16.57 14.33 12.01 12.06 15.71 13.95 12.43 11.98 12.49 13.16 2029 35.57 35.67 30.32 27.75 35.37 33.89 33.68 31.84 34.78 32.59 2030 $34.52$32.41 $35.88 $13.78 $13.20 $14.10 $34.06$32.62$35.41$17.11 $16.39 $17.60 2029 6404 1.88 1.094 1.078 2030 48.42 44.97 30.28 26.16 31.99 27.28 35.59 33.13 33.39 33.46 2030 16.87 14.61 12.30 12.34 16.01 14.31 12.74 12.21 12.71 13.44 2030 35.79 35.89 30.54 27.97 35.59 34.12 33.90 32.07 35.00 32.81 2031 $34.87$32.74 $36.25 $14.11 $13.52 $14.44 $34.42$32.96$35.78$17.45 $16.71 $17.95 2030 6396 1.87 1.093 1.078 2031 48.93 45.48 30.39 26.32 32.31 27.49 36.26 33.67 33.64 33.81 2031 17.22 14.95 12.63 12.67 16.38 14.70 13.08 12.52 13.01 13.78 2031 36.15 36.25 30.90 28.33 35.95 34.47 34.26 32.42 35.36 33.17 2032 $35.17$33.02 $36.56 $14.27 $13.67 $14.60 $34.75$33.27$36.12$17.63 $16.89 $18.14 2031 6396 1.87 1.093 1.078 2032 49.25 45.91 30.58 26.54 32.58 27.58 36.86 34.11 33.81 34.11 2032 17.40 15.10 12.77 12.83 16.55 14.83 13.17 12.69 13.18 13.93 2032 36.48 36.58 31.23 28.66 36.28 34.80 34.59 32.75 35.69 33.51 2033 $35.32$33.16 $36.72 $14.37 $13.76 $14.70 $35.13$33.64$36.52$17.78 $17.03 $18.29 2032 6396 1.87 1.093 1.078 2033 49.44 46.12 30.67 26.46 32.67 27.66 37.24 34.44 33.90 34.26 2033 17.52 15.19 12.85 12.93 16.63 14.90 13.18 12.84 13.31 14.03 2033 36.86 36.96 31.62 29.05 36.67 35.19 34.98 33.14 36.08 33.90 2034 $35.56$33.39 $36.97 $14.58 $13.97 $14.92 $35.49$33.99$36.90$18.01 $17.25 $18.53 2033 6396 1.87 1.093 1.077 2034 49.57 46.49 31.01 26.53 32.86 27.86 37.54 34.84 34.04 34.49 2034 17.75 15.39 13.07 13.14 16.81 15.12 13.36 13.06 13.56 14.25 2034 37.22 37.32 31.98 29.41 37.03 35.55 35.34 33.50 36.44 34.26 2035 $35.77$33.58 $37.18 $14.72 $14.10 $15.06 $35.88$34.35$37.30$18.19 $17.43 $18.72 2034 6396 1.87 1.093 1.078 2035 49.91 46.65 31.14 26.85 33.08 27.93 37.87 35.19 34.18 34.71 2035 17.90 15.51 13.24 13.32 16.90 15.34 13.53 13.21 13.73 14.40 2035 37.61 37.71 32.36 29.79 37.41 35.93 35.72 33.88 36.82 34.65 2036 $36.03$33.82 $37.45 $14.89 $14.27 $15.24 $36.18$34.65$37.61$18.39 $17.62 $18.92 2035 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2037 $36.29$34.07 $37.72 $15.07 $14.44 $15.42 $36.49$34.94$37.93$18.59 $17.81 $19.12 2036 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2038 $36.55$34.32 $37.99 $15.25 $14.61 $15.60 $36.80$35.24$38.26$18.79 $18.00 $19.33 2037 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2039 $36.82$34.57 $38.27 $15.43 $14.78 $15.79 $37.11$35.54$38.58$18.99 $18.19 $19.53 2038 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2040 $37.08$34.82 $38.55 $15.61 $14.96 $15.97 $37.43$35.84$38.91$19.19 $18.39 $19.74 2039 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. 2041 $37.35$35.07 $38.83 $15.79 $15.13 $16.16 $37.75$36.15$39.24$19.40 $18.58 $19.95 2040 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2006 49.95 41.76 28.55 25.37 30.49 25.51 35.88 28.07 36.31 32.40 2006 18.21 16.23 12.84 13.04 17.82 16.06 13.97 12.47 12.46 14.23 2006 29.56 29.15 21.38 21.38 27.18 26.31 26.31 22.72 27.43 24.80 2042 $37.62$35.32 $39.11 $15.98 $15.31 $16.35 $38.07$36.45$39.58$19.61 $18.78 $20.17 2041 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2007 50.04 41.80 29.18 24.89 30.05 25.04 33.42 27.89 35.43 31.82 2007 16.68 14.90 11.55 11.91 16.13 13.85 12.28 10.87 11.92 12.94 2007 31.19 30.76 22.56 22.56 28.67 27.75 27.75 23.98 28.95 26.25 2043 $37.90$35.58 $39.39 $16.17 $15.49 $16.55 $38.39$36.76$39.91$19.82 $18.99 $20.39 2042 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2008 51.90 43.66 30.47 25.42 31.26 27.31 37.81 28.82 33.84 33.31 2008 16.79 15.76 12.32 11.79 16.64 14.56 13.33 10.95 12.40 13.48 2008 34.05 33.69 26.37 23.08 32.82 30.87 30.44 28.23 34.34 29.35 2044 $38.17$35.84 $39.68 $16.36 $15.67 $16.74 $38.72$37.08$40.25$20.03 $19.19 $20.61 2043 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2009 48.23 41.42 28.82 27.65 32.34 27.87 33.37 28.75 32.29 32.44 2009 14.77 12.78 10.34 10.44 13.61 11.74 10.70 10.25 11.35 11.46 2009 28.85 28.55 22.34 19.55 27.81 26.16 25.79 23.93 29.10 24.90 2045 $38.45$36.10 $39.97 $16.55 $15.86 $16.94 $39.05$37.39$40.60$20.25 $19.40 $20.83 2044 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2010 46.84 39.93 28.29 27.69 29.48 27.01 31.63 27.94 32.80 31.13 2010 14.55 12.18 9.85 9.93 13.03 11.15 10.15 9.96 10.87 10.97 2010 26.74 26.84 21.50 18.94 26.55 25.07 24.86 23.02 25.96 23.69 2046 $38.73$36.36 $40.26 $16.75 $16.05 $17.14 $39.38$37.71$40.94$20.47 $19.61 $21.05 2045 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2011 43.58 37.26 26.82 26.74 29.42 26.43 29.70 28.80 32.81 30.24 2011 15.22 13.23 10.73 10.88 14.03 12.03 11.11 11.00 11.77 11.92 2011 26.75 26.85 21.52 18.96 26.56 25.08 24.87 23.04 25.97 23.70 2047 $39.01$36.62 $40.55 $16.95 $16.24 $17.34 $39.72$38.03$41.29$20.69 $19.82 $21.28 2046 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2012 46.94 41.05 28.19 27.10 30.44 26.90 31.51 29.45 33.56 31.61 2012 15.39 13.48 10.85 11.02 14.24 12.21 11.30 11.00 11.81 12.06 2012 27.85 27.95 22.62 20.06 27.65 26.18 25.96 24.13 27.06 24.80 2048 $39.29$36.89 $40.84 $17.15 $16.43 $17.55 $40.06$38.36$41.64$20.91 $20.03 $21.51 2047 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2013 48.05 41.82 28.70 27.33 31.19 27.08 31.69 29.68 34.27 32.11 2013 15.17 13.21 10.58 10.77 13.93 11.96 11.04 10.62 11.34 11.76 2013 29.14 29.24 23.91 21.35 28.95 27.47 27.26 25.43 28.36 26.10 2049 $39.58$37.16 $41.14 $17.35 $16.62 $17.76 $40.40$38.68$42.00$21.14 $20.25 $21.74 2048 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2014 48.70 41.34 29.21 27.69 31.34 27.33 32.08 29.90 34.80 32.36 2014 15.16 13.16 10.66 10.82 14.08 12.14 11.18 10.68 11.34 11.81 2014 30.55 30.65 25.30 22.73 30.35 28.88 28.66 26.82 29.76 27.51 2050 $39.86$37.43 $41.44 $17.56 $16.82 $17.97 $40.74$39.01$42.36$21.36 $20.46 $21.97 2049 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2015 48.54 41.28 29.50 27.56 31.42 27.32 32.24 30.25 34.70 32.44 2015 15.25 13.26 10.84 10.96 14.30 12.38 11.39 10.95 11.61 12.00 2015 31.17 31.27 25.92 23.35 30.97 29.50 29.28 27.44 30.38 28.14 2051 $40.15$37.70 $41.74 $17.76 $17.02 $18.18 $41.09$39.35$42.72$21.59 $20.68 $22.21 2050 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2016 48.42 42.47 29.94 27.58 31.72 27.57 33.04 30.27 34.66 32.82 2016 15.36 13.32 10.95 11.06 14.42 12.51 11.49 11.12 11.78 12.12 2016 31.82 31.92 26.57 24.00 31.62 30.14 29.93 28.09 31.03 28.79 2052 $40.44$37.97 $42.04 $17.97 $17.22 $18.39 $41.44$39.68$43.08$21.83 $20.91 $22.45 2051 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2017 48.52 43.32 30.16 27.75 32.04 28.01 33.40 30.45 34.53 33.11 2017 15.37 13.32 10.98 11.10 14.42 12.53 11.47 11.24 11.86 12.16 2017 32.37 32.47 27.12 24.55 32.17 30.69 30.48 28.64 31.58 29.35 2053 $40.74$38.25 $42.35 $18.18 $17.42 $18.61 $41.79$40.02$43.45$22.06 $21.13 $22.69 2052 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2018 48.29 43.92 30.49 27.76 32.42 28.31 33.27 30.47 34.30 33.28 2018 15.45 13.36 11.03 11.18 14.45 12.57 11.49 11.40 11.99 12.23 2018 32.83 32.93 27.58 25.01 32.63 31.15 30.94 29.10 32.04 29.81 2054 $41.03$38.53 $42.65 $18.40 $17.63 $18.83 $42.15$40.36$43.82$22.30 $21.36 $22.93 2053 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2019 47.96 43.73 30.57 27.74 32.46 28.29 33.30 30.78 34.17 33.29 2019 15.48 13.40 11.10 11.25 14.51 12.64 11.52 11.48 12.07 12.29 2019 33.11 33.21 27.87 25.30 32.92 31.44 31.23 29.39 32.33 30.10 2055 $41.33$38.80 $42.96 $18.62 $17.84 $19.05 $42.51$40.70$44.19$22.54 $21.59 $23.18 2054 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2020 47.81 44.13 30.49 27.92 32.50 28.42 33.51 31.21 34.12 33.40 2020 15.60 13.46 11.11 11.23 14.59 12.74 11.58 11.56 12.15 12.35 2020 33.48 33.58 28.23 25.66 33.29 31.81 31.59 29.76 32.69 30.48 2056 $41.63$39.09 $43.28 $18.84 $18.05 $19.28 $42.87$41.05$44.57$22.78 $21.82 $23.43 2055 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2021 48.08 44.51 30.48 27.98 32.56 28.53 33.71 31.59 34.22 33.55 2021 15.78 13.63 11.30 11.45 14.75 12.92 11.72 11.70 12.36 12.53 2021 33.95 34.05 28.70 26.12 33.75 32.27 32.06 30.22 33.16 30.95 2057 $41.93$39.37 $43.59 $19.06 $18.26 $19.50 $43.23$41.40$44.95$23.03 $22.06 $23.68 2056 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2022 48.41 44.50 30.41 27.97 32.46 28.40 33.94 32.05 34.51 33.60 2022 16.02 13.86 11.52 11.68 15.04 13.11 11.90 11.87 12.51 12.74 2022 34.21 34.31 28.96 26.38 34.01 32.53 32.32 30.48 33.42 31.21 2058 $42.24$39.66 $43.91 $19.28 $18.48 $19.73 $43.60$41.75$45.33$23.28 $22.30 $23.94 2057 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2023 49.02 45.29 30.71 28.02 32.66 28.41 34.48 32.41 34.59 33.90 2023 16.30 14.19 11.79 11.84 15.53 13.63 12.32 11.69 12.41 12.97 2023 34.77 34.87 29.52 26.94 34.58 33.09 32.88 31.04 33.98 31.78 2059 $42.54$39.94 $44.22 $19.51 $18.69 $19.97 $43.97$42.11$45.72$23.53 $22.54 $24.20 2058 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2024 48.94 45.35 31.21 28.03 32.92 28.59 35.23 32.24 34.26 34.12 2024 16.14 14.09 11.69 11.67 15.38 13.66 12.33 11.26 11.95 12.79 2024 35.17 35.27 29.91 27.33 34.97 33.49 33.27 31.43 34.37 32.18 2060 $42.85$40.23 $44.55 $19.74 $18.91 $20.20 $44.35$42.47$46.10$23.78 $22.78 $24.46 2059 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2025 48.17 44.69 31.09 27.86 32.87 28.53 35.47 32.59 34.27 34.05 2025 16.12 14.02 11.62 11.60 15.28 13.64 12.29 11.33 11.95 12.75 2025 35.56 35.66 30.31 27.73 35.37 33.89 33.67 31.83 34.77 32.58 2061 $43.16$40.52 $44.87 $19.98 $19.14 $20.44 $44.73$42.83$46.50$24.04 $23.03 $24.72 2060 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2026 48.21 44.54 31.15 27.79 32.90 28.52 35.69 32.93 34.41 34.12 2026 16.33 14.19 11.74 11.73 15.55 13.74 12.36 11.47 12.05 12.89 2026 35.85 35.95 30.59 28.01 35.65 34.17 33.96 32.12 35.06 32.87 2062 $43.48$40.82 $45.19 $20.21 $19.36 $20.68 $45.11$43.19$46.89$24.30 $23.28 $24.99 2061 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2027 48.61 44.66 31.26 27.79 32.93 28.49 35.81 33.41 34.52 34.22 2027 16.41 14.22 11.81 11.87 15.50 13.71 12.31 11.72 12.25 12.97 2027 35.99 36.09 30.73 28.15 35.79 34.31 34.10 32.26 35.20 33.02 2063 $43.79$41.12 $45.52 $20.45 $19.59 $20.93 $45.49$43.56$47.29$24.56 $23.53 $25.26 2062 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2028 48.59 44.96 31.33 27.78 32.96 28.53 35.90 33.80 34.58 34.31 2028 16.69 14.50 12.01 12.08 15.94 13.90 12.45 11.96 12.46 13.22 2028 36.00 36.10 30.74 28.16 35.80 34.32 34.10 32.27 35.21 33.03 2064 $44.11$41.41 $45.85 $20.69 $19.82 $21.18 $45.88$43.93$47.70$24.83 $23.78 $25.53 2063 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2029 48.74 45.59 31.42 27.71 33.36 28.81 36.43 34.16 34.68 34.63 2029 16.94 14.71 12.23 12.27 16.16 14.21 12.72 12.12 12.62 13.43 2029 36.54 36.64 31.28 28.71 36.35 34.86 34.65 32.81 35.75 33.58 2065 $44.43$41.71 $46.19 $20.94 $20.06 $21.43 $46.27$44.31$48.10$25.10 $24.04 $25.81 2064 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2030 49.17 45.42 31.29 27.68 33.60 28.91 37.17 34.89 35.02 34.88 2030 17.25 14.96 12.68 12.73 16.15 14.70 13.17 12.61 13.07 13.80 2030 37.15 37.25 31.89 29.31 36.95 35.47 35.26 33.41 36.36 34.19 2066 $44.75$42.02 $46.52 $21.18 $20.30 $21.68 $46.66$44.68$48.51$25.37 $24.30 $26.09 2065 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2067 $45.08$42.32 $46.86 $21.43 $20.53 $21.93 $47.06$45.06$48.92$25.64 $24.56 $26.37 2066 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2068 $45.40$42.63 $47.20 $21.69 $20.78 $22.19 $47.46$45.45$49.34$25.92 $24.83 $26.65 2067 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2069 $45.73$42.94 $47.54 $21.94 $21.02 $22.46 $47.87$45.83$49.76$26.20 $25.10 $26.94 2068 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2070 $46.07$43.25 $47.89 $22.20 $21.27 $22.72 $48.27$46.22$50.19$26.48 $25.37 $27.23 2069 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. 2071 $46.40$43.56 $48.23 $22.46 $21.52 $22.99 $48.68$46.62$50.61$26.77 $25.64 $27.53 2070 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2006 49.95 41.76 28.55 25.37 30.49 25.51 35.88 28.07 36.31 32.40 2006 18.21 16.23 12.84 13.04 17.82 16.06 13.97 12.47 12.46 14.23 2006 29.56 29.15 21.38 21.38 27.18 26.31 26.31 22.72 27.43 24.80 2072 $46.74$43.88 $48.58 $22.73 $21.78 $23.26 $49.10$47.01$51.04$27.06 $25.92 $27.82 2071 6396 1.87 1.092 1.077 2007 50.04 41.80 29.18 24.89 30.05 25.04 33.42 27.89 35.43 31.82 2007 16.68 14.90 11.55 11.91 16.13 13.85 12.28 10.87 11.92 12.94 2007 31.19 30.76 22.56 22.56 28.67 27.75 27.75 23.98 28.95 26.25 2008 51.86 43.59 30.43 25.42 31.27 27.31 37.80 28.82 33.83 33.29 2008 16.79 15.76 12.32 11.80 16.64 14.56 13.33 10.94 12.40 13.48 2008 34.05 33.69 26.37 23.08 32.82 30.87 30.44 28.23 34.34 29.35 2009 47.86 41.22 28.65 27.02 32.24 27.85 33.26 28.58 32.11 32.27 2009 14.63 12.65 10.21 10.29 13.48 11.61 10.57 10.08 11.18 11.33 2009 28.85 28.55 22.34 19.55 27.81 26.16 25.79 23.93 29.10 24.90 2010 46.29 39.29 27.90 26.67 29.19 26.78 31.26 27.53 32.36 30.70 2010 14.28 11.92 9.60 9.69 12.76 10.88 9.88 9.71 10.64 10.71 2010 26.57 26.67 21.33 18.77 26.37 24.89 24.68 22.85 25.78 23.51 2011 42.64 36.00 26.03 25.72 28.81 25.90 28.74 28.09 32.06 29.44 2011 14.80 12.82 10.32 10.48 13.59 11.60 10.68 10.57 11.36 11.50 2011 26.49 26.59 21.26 18.70 26.29 24.82 24.61 22.78 25.71 23.44 2012 45.58 38.93 26.89 25.92 29.48 26.04 30.18 28.31 32.44 30.40 2012 14.83 12.93 10.32 10.50 13.67 11.65 10.75 10.48 11.32 11.52 2012 27.50 27.60 22.28 19.73 27.31 25.84 25.62 23.80 26.72 24.46 2013 46.45 39.46 26.94 25.97 29.92 25.92 30.49 28.34 32.92 30.68 2013 14.46 12.51 9.90 10.11 13.21 11.26 10.33 9.96 10.71 11.07 2013 28.62 28.72 23.40 20.84 28.42 26.95 26.74 24.91 27.84 25.58 2014 46.72 38.40 26.79 26.15 29.71 25.77 30.47 28.16 33.20 30.52 2014 14.36 12.39 9.89 10.07 13.26 11.34 10.38 9.90 10.61 11.04 2014 30.04 30.14 24.81 22.24 29.84 28.37 28.15 26.32 29.26 26.99 2015 46.24 38.42 27.33 25.97 29.59 25.64 30.38 28.15 32.87 30.47 2015 14.41 12.45 10.03 10.16 13.42 11.53 10.54 10.05 10.76 11.16 2015 30.57 30.67 25.34 22.78 30.38 28.90 28.69 26.86 29.79 27.53 2016 45.90 39.65 27.74 25.95 29.71 25.72 31.07 27.96 32.54 30.72 2016 14.44 12.46 10.07 10.20 13.49 11.61 10.59 10.11 10.83 11.21 2016 31.11 31.21 25.87 23.31 30.91 29.44 29.22 27.39 30.32 28.07 2017 45.62 40.08 27.59 25.84 29.67 25.79 31.25 27.93 32.09 30.70 2017 14.38 12.39 10.03 10.16 13.42 11.55 10.51 10.15 10.87 11.18 2017 31.61 31.71 26.37 23.81 31.41 29.94 29.72 27.89 30.82 28.57 2018 45.27 40.25 27.36 25.67 29.57 25.67 30.70 27.81 31.71 30.49 2018 14.38 12.36 10.02 10.17 13.40 11.53 10.45 10.26 10.96 11.19 2018 32.20 32.30 26.96 24.40 32.00 30.52 30.31 28.48 31.41 29.16 2019 45.07 39.86 27.34 25.48 29.22 25.49 30.63 27.87 31.58 30.30 2019 14.40 12.38 10.07 10.21 13.45 11.60 10.49 10.31 11.02 11.24 2019 32.25 32.35 27.02 24.46 32.06 30.58 30.37 28.54 31.47 29.22 2020 45.12 40.58 27.53 25.48 29.10 25.54 30.77 28.16 31.40 30.39 2020 14.55 12.50 10.16 10.27 13.61 11.81 10.65 10.46 11.18 11.37 2020 32.32 32.42 27.09 24.53 32.12 30.65 30.44 28.60 31.54 29.29 2021 45.51 41.15 27.68 25.52 29.24 25.57 31.05 28.66 31.56 30.62 2021 14.79 12.74 10.45 10.56 13.89 12.13 10.93 10.66 11.40 11.63 2021 32.81 32.91 27.58 25.01 32.61 31.14 30.93 29.09 32.03 29.78 2022 45.80 41.26 27.68 25.53 29.18 25.37 31.32 29.22 31.70 30.70 2022 14.99 12.93 10.62 10.74 14.16 12.32 11.09 10.80 11.50 11.81 2022 32.93 33.03 27.70 25.13 32.73 31.26 31.04 29.21 32.15 29.90 2023 45.71 41.06 27.77 25.37 28.99 25.10 31.63 29.10 31.62 30.63 2023 14.96 12.92 10.59 10.68 14.20 12.35 11.07 10.53 11.32 11.75 2023 33.30 33.40 28.06 25.50 33.10 31.62 31.41 29.58 32.51 30.27 2024 45.26 40.76 27.87 25.18 28.83 24.87 31.57 28.95 31.12 30.45 2024 14.67 12.64 10.40 10.44 13.82 12.24 10.94 10.11 10.86 11.46 2024 33.10 33.20 27.87 25.31 32.91 31.43 31.22 29.39 32.32 30.08 2025 44.95 40.52 27.87 25.02 28.73 24.73 31.32 29.18 31.09 30.34 2025 14.75 12.66 10.41 10.46 13.81 12.26 10.93 10.31 10.94 11.50 2025 33.32 33.42 28.09 25.53 33.12 31.65 31.43 29.60 32.54 30.30 2026 44.98 40.93 28.09 24.94 28.81 24.72 30.75 29.58 31.17 30.37 2026 15.02 12.90 10.54 10.60 14.20 12.37 11.00 10.50 11.08 11.69 2026 33.50 33.60 28.27 25.71 33.31 31.83 31.62 29.79 32.72 30.49 2027 45.34 41.01 27.97 24.74 28.78 24.57 31.20 29.67 31.17 30.40 2027 15.15 13.01 10.73 10.81 14.24 12.59 11.15 10.73 11.34 11.86 2027 33.47 33.57 28.24 25.68 33.27 31.80 31.59 29.76 32.69 30.46 2028 45.88 41.30 27.81 24.58 28.78 24.49 31.71 30.15 31.30 30.53 2028 15.51 13.34 11.06 11.12 14.60 12.97 11.49 11.03 11.59 12.19 2028 33.50 33.60 28.28 25.72 33.31 31.83 31.62 29.79 32.73 30.50 2029 46.30 42.26 27.94 24.50 29.08 24.64 32.60 30.72 31.44 30.92 2029 15.82 13.62 11.40 11.47 14.82 13.32 11.81 11.38 11.95 12.51 2029 34.11 34.21 28.88 26.33 33.92 32.44 32.23 30.40 33.33 31.11 2030 47.05 42.59 28.13 24.49 29.41 24.81 33.58 31.15 31.63 31.29 2030 16.24 13.98 11.79 11.85 15.16 13.75 12.17 11.76 12.31 12.89 2030 34.33 34.43 29.10 26.55 34.14 32.66 32.45 30.62 33.55 31.33 NG/LPG Price (2009$/MBTU) Weighted NG + LPG LPG Regional Price Forecasts Average Energy Prices Projected Energy Prices and Site to Source

Conversion Factors

Electricity Price (2009$ / MMBTU) Gas Price (2009$ / MMBtu) LPG Price (2009$/MBTU) Average Energy Prices

(in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu)

Updated Regional Residential Electricity Price Forecasts - Low Growth Scenario Updated Regional Residential LPG Price Forecasts - High Growth Scenario

Updated Regional Residential LPG Price Forecasts - Low Growth Scenario Updated Regional Residential Natural Gas Price Forecasts - Low Growth Scenario Electricity Regional Price Forecasts

Updated Regional Residential Electricity Price Forecasts - High Growth Scenario Natural Gas Regional Price Forecasts

Updated Regional Residential Natural Gas Price Forecasts - High Growth Scenario (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu)

# Discount Factor 20130.816298 20140.762895 20150.712986 20160.666342 2017 0.62275 20180.582009 20190.543934 20200.508349 2021 0.475093 20220.444012 20230.414964 20240.387817 20250.362446 20260.338735 20270.316574 20280.295864 20290.276508 20300.258419 2031 0.241513 20320.225713 20330.210947 20340.197147 20350.184249 20360.172195 2037 0.16093 20380.150402 20390.140563 20400.131367 2041 0.122773 20420.114741 20430.107235 20440.100219 20450.093663 20460.087535 20470.081809 20480.076457 20490.071455 2050 0.06678 2051 0.062412 20520.058329 20530.054513 20540.050946 20550.047613 20560.044499 20570.041587 20580.038867 20590.036324 20600.033948 2061 0.031727 20620.029651 

# Discount Factor

# 20630.027711 20640.025899

# 0.00

0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25

1981198619911996200120062011201620212026203120362041Millions



# First Time Owners

NewHousingInstallations

ModeledReplacements

Historical Data

# $0.00

$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.002015 2025 2035 2045Billions of 2009 Dollars 

# Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 1

Energy Cost Savings Equipment Cost Savings MaintenanceCost Savings Net Savings

-$0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.022015 2025 2035Billions of 2009 Dollars 

# Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 3

Energy Cost Savings Equipment Cost Savings MaintenanceCost Savings Net Savings

# -$0.3

-$0.2 -$0.1 $0.0 $0.1 $0.2 $0.3

2015 2025 2035 2045Billions of 2009 Dollars 

# Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 5

MaintenanceCost Savings Equipment Cost Savings Energy Cost Savings Net Savings

-$0.4 -$0.3 -$0.2 -$0.1 $0.0 $0.1 $0.2

2015 2025 2035 2045Billions of 2007 Dollars 

# Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 7

MaintenanceCost Savings
Equipment Cost Savings
Energy Cost Savings
Net Savings

# 2045

$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

2015 2025 2035Billions of 2009 Dollars 

# Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 4

MaintenanceCost Savings Equipment Cost Savings Energy Cost Savings Net Savings 2045 -$0.002

$0.000 $0.002 $0.004 $0.006 $0.008 $0.0102015 2025 2035Billions of 2009 Dollars 

# Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 2

Energy Cost Savings Equipment Cost Savings MaintenanceCost Savings Net Savings

# 2045

MaintenanceCost Savings Equipment Cost Savings Energy Cost Savings

-$0.3 -$0.2 -$0.2 -$0.1 -$0.1 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1

2015 2025 2035Billions of 2009 Dollars 

# Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 6

MaintenanceCost Savings Equipment Cost Savings Energy Cost Savings Net Savings

2045

-$0.5 -$0.4 -$0.3 -$0.2 -$0.1 $0.0 $0.1 $0.2 $0.3

2015 2025 2035Billions of 2007 Dollars 

# FinancialImpacts of Candidate Standard Level 8

MaintenanceCost Savings
Equipment Cost Savings
Energy Cost Savings
Net Savings

# 2045 2045

# 2045 

# Financial Impacts of Candidate Standard Level 6

2045