### 14

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## CHAPTER 14 . UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 14

- 1 14.2 METHODOLOGY

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 14

- 1 14.3 RESULTS

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 14

- 2

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.3.1 AEO 2011 Reference Case Forecast

................................ ................................ 14

- 3 Table 14.3.2 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 1 For ecast

................................ .................. 14

- 4 Table 14.3.3 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

................................ .................. 14

- 4 Table 14.3.4 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

................................ .................. 14

- 5 Table 14.3.5 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

................................ .................. 14

- 5 Table 14.3.6 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2047 Under Dishwasher Trial Standard Levels

................................ ................................ ...................... 14

- 6

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## CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALY SIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

DOE analyzed the effects of its amended standard levels on the electric utility industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s National Ene rgy Modeling System (NEMS). a 

## NEMS is a public domain, multi

- sectored, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce an energy forecast for the United States, the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) . The AEO for 2011 ( AEO201 1 ) forecasts energy supply and demand through 2035. 1 

## DOE used a variant of this model, referred to as NEMS

- BT, b 

## to account for the impacts of dishwasher energy conservation standards. DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of a comparison between model results for the AEO2011 Refere nce Case and for cases in which standards are in place, and applies the same basic set of assumptions as the AEO201 1 . The AEO2011 reference case corresponds to medium economic growth.

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in electric installed c apacity and generation that result for each trial standard level (TSL) by plant type, as well as changes in res ident ial electricity and natural gas consumption

.

NEMS

- BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in the analysis of energy conservation standards. NEMS

- BT uses a set of assumptions that are well known and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO r eceives. In addition, the comprehensiveness of NEMS

- BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy supply and demand sectors, producing a complete picture of the effects of energy conservation standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS

- BT can be used to estimate marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of energy conservation standards than considering only average effects.



## 14.2 METHODOLOGY

NEMS provides reference case load shapes for several end uses. The model uses
p redicted growth in demand for each end use to build up a projection of the total electric system load growth for each region, which it uses in turn to predict the necessary additions to capacity. DOE uses NEMS

- BT to account for the implementation of energy conservation standards by decrementing the appropriate reference case load shape. For dishwashers the cooking end use

a 

### For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003 . DOE/EIA

- 0581(2003), March 2003.

b 

### DOE/EIA approves use of the n ame NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMS

BT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed).

### 14

- 2 

## was decremented

. These decrements are also divided amongst the nine U.S. Census divisions based upon the share of energy end use consump tion in each division, as given in NEMS

.
DOE used the site energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (chapter 10) for each TSL as input to NEMS

- BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for NEMS

- BT to produce stable re sults out of the range of numerical noise is larger than the highest efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher energy use reduction levels in NEMS

- BT, representin g multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard.

Although the current time horizon of NEMS

- BT is 2035, other parts of the energy conservation standards analysis extend through the year 204 4 . It is not feasible to extend the forecast period of NEMS

- BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA ha ve an approved method for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2035. While it might seem reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could be contradictory. An analysis of various trends suf ficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2035 are simple replications of year 2035 results. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual NEMS

- BT results.



## 14.3 RESULTS

This utility impact analysis reports NE MS

- BT forecasts for residential sector electricity and natural gas consumption, total electricity generation by fuel type, and installed electricity generation capacity by fuel type. Results are pres ented in five

- year increments through 2035. Beyond 2035, an extrapol ation through 2047 for each TSL represents a simple replication of the 2035 results.

The results from the AEO2011 Refe rence Case are shown in Table 14 .3.1. The results for the

seven TSLs are presented in Table 1 4 .3.2 through Table 1 4 .3. 6 . Each table shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 1 4 .2, for total U.S. electricity generation and installed capacity.

The considered dishwasher TSLs reduce energy consumption compared to the AEO2011 R efere nce Case. The electricity savings predicted by t he NIA Model for dishwasher products range from 0 .0002 percent to 0.28 p ercent of residential electricity consumption in the year 2035. The natural gas savings predicted by the NIA model fo r dishwasher products range from 0.01 percen t to 0.66 percent of residential natu ral gas consumption in 2035.

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## Table 14 .3. 1 AEO 2011 Reference Case Forecast

NEMS

- BT Results: AEO 2011 Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1
Electricity Sales (TWh) 2 1,359 1,455 1,348 1,394 1,461 1,538 1,613
Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.17 5.21 5.25 5.24 5.23 5.17
Other (EJ) 1.96 1.66 1.56 1.50 1.44 1.40 1.36
Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 4.90 4.94 4.98 4.96 4.95 4.90

Other (Quads) 3 1.86 1.57 1.48 1.42 1.37 1.33 1.29

Total U.S. Electric Generation 4

Coal (TWh) 2,013 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218
Gas (TWh) 759 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283
Petroleum (TWh) 122 45 43 44 44 45 46
Nuclear (TWh) 782 803 839 877 877 877 874
Renewables (TWh) 360 414 556 608 673 703 724

Total ( TWh) 5 4,036 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146

Installed Generating Capacity 6
Coal (GW) 314 322 322 323 326 329 334
Other Fossil (GW) 7 439 471 471 470 490 530 571
Nuclear (GW) 100 101 106 110 110 110 110
Renewables (GW) 100 132 154 159 169 176 180
Total (GW) 8 953 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196

1 

### Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2011: Energy Consumption

2 

### Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2011: Electricity Sales by Sector

3 

### Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy

4 

### Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2011: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

5 

### Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

6 

### Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2011: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

7 

### Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

8 

### Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells

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## Table 14

. 3. 2 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

Table 14

. 3. 3 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast 

## NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 2047 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,394 1,461 1,538 1,613 Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.027 -0.047 -0.057 -0.062 -0.065 -0.068 -0.051 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.25 5.24 5.23 5.17 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other (EJ) 1.50 1.44 1.40 1.36 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.98 4.96 4.95 4.90 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other (Quads) 1.42 1.37 1.33 1.29 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) -0.016 -0.018 -0.014 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012 Gas (TWh) 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.005 -0.020 -0.031 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034 Petroleum (TWh) 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (TWh) 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (TWh) 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) -0.004 -0.007 -0.006 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 Total (TWh) 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) -0.026 -0.045 -0.051 -0.054 -0.054 -0.054 -0.054

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Other Fossil (GW) 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) -0.001 -0.004 -0.007 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 Nuclear (GW) 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Total (GW) 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) -0.003 -0.007 -0.010 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 2047 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,455 1,348 1,394 1,461 1,538 1,613 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.004 -0.007 -0.006 -0.004 -0.002 -0.001 0.007 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.17 5.21 5.25 5.24 5.22 5.17 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 Other (EJ) 1.66 1.56 1.50 1.44 1.40 1.36 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.90 4.94 4.98 4.96 4.95 4.90 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 Other (Quads) 1.57 1.48 1.42 1.37 1.33 1.29 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) -0.003 -0.009 -0.002 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.003 0.007 -0.001 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.001 -0.004 -0.007 -0.006 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Extrapolation

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## Table 14

. 3. 4 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

Table 14

. 3. 5 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast 

## NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 2047 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,392 1,458 1,535 1,609 Electricity Sales (TWh) -1.76 -3.07 -3.72 -4.05 -4.28 -4.46 -3.41 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.25 5.23 5.22 5.16 Natural Gas (EJ) -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Other (EJ) 1.50 1.44 1.40 1.36 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.96 4.94 4.89 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Other (Quads) 1.42 1.37 1.33 1.29 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,906 2,067 2,137 2,217 Coal (TWh) -1.03 -1.16 -0.91 -0.79 -0.79 -0.79 -0.79 Gas (TWh) 1,000 998 1,146 1,281 Gas (TWh) -0.34 -1.30 -2.01 -2.20 -2.20 -2.20 -2.20 Petroleum (TWh) 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) -0.02 0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Nuclear (TWh) 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 607 672 703 723 Renewables (TWh) -0.29 -0.47 -0.42 -0.54 -0.54 -0.54 -0.54 Total (TWh) 4,434 4,660 4,907 5,142 Total (TWh) -1.68 -2.92 -3.33 -3.55 -3.55 -3.55 -3.55

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 323 325 329 334 Coal (GW) -0.06 -0.06 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 Other Fossil (GW) 469 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) -0.09 -0.28 -0.47 -0.52 -0.52 -0.52 -0.52 Nuclear (GW) 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 158 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) -0.06 -0.10 -0.13 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14 Total (GW) 1,061 1,095 1,145 1,195 Total (GW) -0.20 -0.44 -0.66 -0.72 -0.72 -0.72 -0.72 Extrapolation



## NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 2047 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,392 1,458 1,534 1,609 Electricity Sales (TWh) -1.94 -3.39 -4.12 -4.50 -4.78 -5.00 -3.85 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.21 5.20 5.14 Natural Gas (EJ) -0.01 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 Other (EJ) 1.50 1.44 1.40 1.36 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 4.94 4.92 4.87 Natural Gas (Quads) -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 Other (Quads) 1.42 1.36 1.32 1.29 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,906 2,067 2,136 2,217 Coal (TWh) -1.14 -1.28 -1.01 -0.88 -0.88 -0.88 -0.88 Gas (TWh) 1,000 998 1,146 1,281 Gas (TWh) -0.38 -1.44 -2.23 -2.45 -2.45 -2.45 -2.45 Petroleum (TWh) 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) -0.02 0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Nuclear (TWh) 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 607 672 703 723 Renewables (TWh) -0.32 -0.52 -0.47 -0.60 -0.60 -0.60 -0.60 Total (TWh) 4,434 4,660 4,907 5,142 Total (TWh) -1.85 -3.23 -3.69 -3.95 -3.95 -3.95 -3.95

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 323 325 329 334 Coal (GW) -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 Other Fossil (GW) 469 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) -0.10 -0.31 -0.53 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58 Nuclear (GW) 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 158 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) -0.07 -0.11 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 Total (GW) 1,061 1,095 1,145 1,195 Total (GW) -0.23 -0.49 -0.73 -0.80 -0.80 -0.80 -0.80 Extrapolation

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## Table 14.3. 6 presents the estimated reduction in electri city generating capa city in 204 7 for the TSLs that DOE considered in this rulemaking.

Table 14

. 3. 6 Reduction in Elec tric Generating Capacity in 204 7 Under Dishwasher Trial Standard Levels

Dishwashers TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4

0.011 g igawatts


## 0.001 0.719 0.800

### 14

- 7 

## REFERENCES

1. Energy Information Administration

. Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035: Reference Case Service Report

. 2010 . Washington, DC. April. Report No. DOE/EIA

0383(2010 ). (Last accessed July 11, 2012.)

< http://infousa.state.gov/economy/technology/docs/0383.pdf >