Technical Support Document (TSD) for Emissions Inventories for the State Implementation Plan Revision: NOx Vehicle EmissionBudget Revisions Based onMOVES 2010a

Reading, PA Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area

Submitted by the Bureau ofAir Quality Pennsylvania DepartmentofEnvironmental Protection

TSD PreparedJanuary 2014 by Jessica L. Fry Office ofAirMonitoring and Analysis, 3AP40 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 3 1650 Arch Street Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103

Reviewed by Alice H. Chow, Associate Director Office ofAirMonitoring and Analysis (3AP40)I. Introduction

The purpose ofthis documentis to provide a technical summary ofthe Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis (OAMA) review ofthe emissions inventories submitted with the State Implementation Plan (SIP) Revision: NOx Motor Vehicle EmissionBudget Revisions Based on MOVES 201Oa for the Reading Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Plan submittedby the Pennsylvania Department ofEnvironmental Protection (PADEP). The Reading Nonattainment Area consists ofall ofBerks County, PA. Pennsylvaniais updating theirNOx motorvehicle emissions budgets submitted in thei'r Eight-hour Ozone SIP for the Reading Area for the years 2009 and 2018 using MOVES201 Oa and subsequently reviewing and updating (ifneeded) theNOx emissions inventories for point, nonpoint, nonroad, and onroad sources. Emission inventories in the Reading Area SIP revision are used to document that the SIP continues to meet applicable requirements when previous onroad mobile emissions inventories are replaced with MOVES201 Oa inventories. The plan should also demons

. trate that growth and control strategy assumptions for point, nonpoint, and nonroad mobile sources continue to be valid. This review is to confirm that any minorupdates have not changed the overall conclusions of the SIP. Any questions pertainingto this teclmical summary should be directed to Alice Chow, Associate Director, Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis, at 215-814-2144 or via email at chow.alice@epa.gov.

II 2009 and 2018 Emissions Inventories

In the Reading Area SIP revision, emissions inventories are used to supportthe States claim that the area is continuing to attain the 1997 8-hourozone standard as set forth in the SIP when using MOVES 2010a for the onroad mobile emissions inventory. In order to do this, the state shouldreviewthe point, nonpoint, and nonroad NOx emissions inventories submitted with the SIP for the interim (2009) and attainment (2018) years and determine ifchanges in growth and control strategy assumptions affect the conclusionthat the areawill remain in compliance with the 1997 8-hour ozone standard.

In the Reading Area SIP revision PADEP analyzed the NOx point source emissions estimates for 2009 and 2018 submitted with the Eight-Hour OzoneNAAQS Reading Area SIP. PADEP has resubmitted point source emissions inventories for 2009 and 2018. Forthe 2009 point source inventory, PADEP submitted actual 2009 emissions from individual facilities in the area. The emissions were submitted by tons/year and tons/day. Forthe 2018 projected inventories PADEP used information developed for the MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort and did a straight-line interpolationbetween the 2007 MARAMA baseline inventory and the 2020 MARAMAprojected year inventory. Itwas concluded that the emissions had been overestimated in the SIP and that the area will continue to be in attainment with the new emission estimates. OAMA staffreviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable.Pennsylvania conducted an analysis oftheNOx emissions estimates for nonpoint

sources submitted for 2009 and 2018 with the 1997 ozone NAAQS Reading Area SIP to determine ifthe nonpoint NOx emissions inventory needed to be updated for this revision. Forthe 2009 nonpoint source emissions Pennsylvania comparedU.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau ofCensus, and the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department ofEnergy actual growth from 2002-2009 to the growth estimates used in the Reading Area SIP. Pennsylvania concluded that growth estimates for two nonpoint

source areas, population growth and natural gas combustion had been under-estimated, while most other areas were over-estimated. To account for the differences in growth assumptions Pennsylvaniaupdated their 2009 inventory by linearly interpolatingthe 2007 MARAMAbaseline inventory and the 2017 MARAMAprojected yearto derive 2009 emissions. Forthe 2018 emission estimates PADEP revised their growth estimates with updated data used in the MARAMA 2011 and used the same linear interpolation method used for the point sources to update the 2018 inventory. OAMA staffreviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable.

The nonroad emissions inventory estimates for NOx submitted for 2009 and 2018 in the Reading Area SIP were calculated using USEPA'sNONROAD2005 Model. Pennsylvania compared growth estimates used in the NONROAD2005 to the growth estimates in the currentNONROAD2008a. These comparisons along with fleet turnover led Pennsylvaniato the conclusionthatthe general downward trend inNOx emissions in this sector supports the conclusionthat the areawill continueto maintain compliance with the eight-hour ozone standard and therefore no revisions were made. OAMA staff r(lviewed the analysis andbelieves it is reasonable.

In the ReadingArea SIP revision, onroad emissions were estimated using the MOVES2010amodel by Michael Baker, 

### Jr., Inc., who is a consultantto the Pennsylvania DepartmentofTransportation (PennDOT). PADEP revised the 2004 and 2009 onroad NOx emissions inventories and the 2018 projection inventory for the Reading Area SIP revision. Pennsylvaniaused the same Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic method for forecasting traffic growth orvehicle miles travelled. Newinput files for use in MOVES 2010awere developed using the local datafrom PennDOT, with some inputs being developed by the software PPSUITE, which is atool for estimating speeds and processing emissions rates based upon accepted transportation engineering methodologies. ·Mobile emissions values were given in units oftons per summer day. OAMA staffreviewed the files and emission results and believes them to be reasonable.

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