U P D A T E M A Y 2 0 1 5

EPA/NHTSA Phase 2 Fuel Effic

& GHG Standards for Freight Tr

Projected Effect on Freight Cos

Dana L978-40dlowel

M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC(978) 369 5533 / www.mjbradley.com
M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC

(978) 369 5533 / www.mjbradley.com

PURPOSE• Analyze the effect on freight costs of more strin

“EPA /NHTSA Phase 2” fuel efficiency standardnew trucks

• Compare truck operating costs with Phase 2 

standards to a “base case” scenario in which EPA/NHTSA Phase 1 standards do not change f

trucks purchased after MY2019

• More stringent EPA /NHTSA Phase 2 standards 

expected to achieve a significant reduction in to

expected to achieve a significant reduction in to

operating costs as large fuel cost savings offset 

smaller increase in truck & trailer initial purchascosts. 
M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC

(978) 369 5533 / www.mjbradley.com

FREIGHT TRUCK OPERATING COSTS ($/MI)

Current Costs Future Costs Affected 

Current Costs Future Costs Affected 

Fuel Costs 39%

Equipment Costs 11%

Other Costs 50%

Labor

Maintenance

Tolls, fees

Insurance

Fuel Price ($/gal)

Fuel Consumption (gal 

General inflation

Compliance Costs

General inflation
M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC

(978) 369 5533 / www.mjbradley.com

ANALYZED EPA/NHTSA PHASE 2 SCENARIO

Metric Equip Metric Equip

EPA/NHTSA Phase 1 EPA/NHTSA 

MY 2014-

2016

MY 2017-

2019

MY 2020-

2024 

Reduced

Fuel Use 1

Sleeper Cab 21% 23% 29% 

Day Cab 11% 13% 22% 

Van Trailer NA NA 8% 

Marginal 

Change in 

Cost 2

Sleeper Cab $7,875 $232 $1,034 

Day Cab $3,353 $601 $4,446 

Van Trailer NA NA $1,546 

Already in place,

Incorporated into 

baseline

Based on Apri

analysis of fe

cost-effective te

1 Compared to MY2013 truck/trailer. 2 Change is relative to previous compliance period. All costs in 2014 dolla
M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC

(978) 369 5533 / www.mjbradley.com

PHASE 2 TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS

• Improved aerodynamics• Low rolling resistance, single-wide tires• 6 x 2 axle configuration• Automated manual or dual-clutch 

transmission

• APU for idle reduction• Exhaust waste heat recovery• Engine improvements

 Lower friction Better air handling Better heat transfer Improved after-treatment

• Improved aerodynamic• Low rolling resistance, 

There are a range of technol

could be combined to e

compliance with bold EPA/

Phase 2 rules. This analysis 

on estimated costs for fe

combinations that could be 

meet the modeled efficienc

and is not reliant on the us

specific technology(
M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC

(978) 369 5533 / www.mjbradley.com

BASELINE FUEL ECONOMY & FREIGHT RAT

Despite improved truck fuel economy freight rates continue to rise due to general and fuel price inflation
M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC

(978) 369 5533 / www.mjbradley.com

FLEET FUEL ECONOMY WITH EPA/NHTSA P

+1
M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC

(978) 369 5533 / www.mjbradley.com

FREIGHT COSTS – NEW SLEEPER CAB & TRA

F

$

c

m

$

t
M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC

(978) 369 5533 / www.mjbradley.com

FREIGHT COSTS – NEW DAY CAB & TRAILER

F

$0

fo

ne

Ph

$

s

ye
M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC

(978) 369 5533 / www.mjbradley.com

FLEET AVERAGE FREIGHT COSTS

av

$

av

$
M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC

(978) 369 5533 / www.mjbradley.com

POTENTIAL FREIGHT RATES WITH EPA/NHTSA 

W

s

fr

fa

in 
M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC

(978) 369 5533 / www.mjbradley.com

POTENTIAL COMPANY SAVINGS

Sporting Goods manufacturer $500 1,000,000 

$ 

Mid-size apparel company $5,000 10,000,000 6

$ 

Large consumer food brand $30,000 60,000,000 3,6

$ 

Pote

Example Company from 

Distribution Miles Revenue (in millions)

* estimate based on two miles per $1,000 of revenue
M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC

(978) 369 5533 / www.mjbradley.com

SUMMARY• Bold EPA/NHTSA Phase 2 fuel efficiency & GHG standard

result in significant net savings in freight truck operating companies that purchase compliant trucks

Per mile savings in fuel costs for sleeper cab trucks ar

greater than increased costs for equipment amortizati

• If EPA & NHTSA include trailers in Phase 2 this could incr

net benefits by 48% compared to more stringent truck sta

alone

• When operating cost savings are passed on to shippers, m

stringent EPA/NHTSA Phase 2 fuel efficiency standards foand trailers could reduce average shipping rates ($/mile) 

to 6.8% by 2040