14-i

CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................14-1

14.2 METHODOLOGY.....................................................................................................14-1

14.3 RESULTS ..................................................................................................................14-2

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.3.1 AEO 2011 Reference Case Forecast................................................................14-3

Table 14.3.2 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast ..................................................14-4

Table 14.3.3 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast ..................................................14-4

Table 14.3.4 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast ..................................................14-5

Table 14.3.5 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast ..................................................14-5

Table 14.3.6 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2047 Under Dishwasher 

Trial Standard Levels......................................................................................14-6
14-1

CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

DOE analyzed the effects of its amended standard levels on the electric utility industry using 

a variant of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s National Energy Modeling System 

(NEMS).a NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectored, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy 

sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce an energy forecast for the United States, the 

Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The AEO for 2011 (AEO2011) forecasts energy supply and demand 

through 2035.1

 DOE used a variant of this model, referred to as NEMS-BT,b to account for the 

impacts of dishwasher energy conservation standards. DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of a 

comparison between model results for the AEO2011 Reference Case and for cases in which standards 

are in place, and applies the same basic set of assumptions as the AEO2011. The AEO2011 reference 

case corresponds to medium economic growth.

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in electric installed capacity and generation 

that result for each trial standard level (TSL) by plant type, as well as changes in residential 

electricity and natural gas consumption. 

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in the 

analysis of energy conservation standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well known 

and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the 

comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy 

supply and demand sectors, producing a complete picture of the effects of energy conservation 

standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate marginal effects, which 

yield a better estimate of the actual impact of energy conservation standards than considering only 

average effects.

14.2 METHODOLOGY

NEMS provides reference case load shapes for several end uses. The model uses 

predicted growth in demand for each end use to build up a projection of the total electric system 

load growth for each region, which it uses in turn to predict the necessary additions to capacity. 

DOE uses NEMS-BT to account for the implementation of energy conservation standards by 

decrementing the appropriate reference case load shape. For dishwashers the cooking end use 

 

a For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003. DOE/EIA-0581(2003), 

March 2003. 

b DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any 

modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run 

under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMSBT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). 
14-2

was decremented. These decrements are also divided amongst the nine U.S. Census divisions based 

upon the share of energy end use consumption in each division, as given in NEMS.

DOE used the site energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (chapter 10) for 

each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for 

NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger than the highest 

efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results corresponding to each 

TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher energy use reduction levels in NEMS-BT, representing 

multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the results to estimate actual 

changes in generation and capacity due to the standard.

Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2035, other parts of the energy 

conservation standards analysis extend through the year 2044. It is not feasible to extend the forecast 

period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method 

for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2035. While it might seem reasonable to make simple 

linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could be 

contradictory. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond 

the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all 

extrapolations beyond 2035 are simple replications of year 2035 results. To emphasize the 

extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual 

NEMS-BT results.

14.3 RESULTS

This utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for residential sector electricity and 

natural gas consumption, total electricity generation by fuel type, and installed electricity generation 

capacity by fuel type. Results are presented in five-year increments through 2035. Beyond 2035, an 

extrapolation through 2047 for each TSL represents a simple replication of the 2035 results. 

The results from the AEO2011 Reference Case are shown in Table 14.3.1. The results for the 

seven TSLs are presented in Table 14.3.2 through Table 14.3.6. Each table shows forecasts using 

interpolated results, as described in section 14.2, for total U.S. electricity generation and installed 

capacity.

The considered dishwasher TSLs reduce energy consumption compared to the AEO2011

Reference Case. The electricity savings predicted by the NIA Model for dishwasher products range 

from 0.0002 percent to 0.28 percent of residential electricity consumption in the year 2035. The 

natural gas savings predicted by the NIA model for dishwasher products range from 0.01 percent to 

0.66 percent of residential natural gas consumption in 2035. 
14-3

Table 14.3.1 AEO 2011 Reference Case Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: AEO 2011 Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2 1,359 1,455 1,348 1,394 1,461 1,538 1,613

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.17 5.21 5.25 5.24 5.23 5.17

Other (EJ) 1.96 1.66 1.56 1.50 1.44 1.40 1.36

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 4.90 4.94 4.98 4.96 4.95 4.90

Other (Quads) 3 1.86 1.57 1.48 1.42 1.37 1.33 1.29

Total U.S. Electric Generation 4

Coal (TWh) 2,013 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218

Gas (TWh) 759 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283

Petroleum (TWh) 122 45 43 44 44 45 46

Nuclear (TWh) 782 803 839 877 877 877 874

Renewables (TWh) 360 414 556 608 673 703 724

Total (TWh) 5 4,036 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146

Installed Generating Capacity 6

Coal (GW) 314 322 322 323 326 329 334

Other Fossil (GW) 7 439 471 471 470 490 530 571

Nuclear (GW) 100 101 106 110 110 110 110

Renewables (GW) 100 132 154 159 169 176 180

Total (GW) 8 953 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196

1

Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2011: Energy Consumption

2

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2011: Electricity Sales by Sector

3

Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy

4

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2011: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

5

Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

6

Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2011: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

7

Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

8

Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells
14-4

Table 14.3.2 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

Table 14.3.3 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 2047

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,394 1,461 1,538 1,613 Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.027 -0.047 -0.057 -0.062 -0.065 -0.068 -0.051

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.25 5.24 5.23 5.17 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other (EJ) 1.50 1.44 1.40 1.36 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.98 4.96 4.95 4.90 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other (Quads) 1.42 1.37 1.33 1.29 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) -0.016 -0.018 -0.014 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012

Gas (TWh) 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.005 -0.020 -0.031 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034

Petroleum (TWh) 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (TWh) 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (TWh) 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) -0.004 -0.007 -0.006 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008

Total (TWh) 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) -0.026 -0.045 -0.051 -0.054 -0.054 -0.054 -0.054

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Other Fossil (GW) 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) -0.001 -0.004 -0.007 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008

Nuclear (GW) 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Total (GW) 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) -0.003 -0.007 -0.010 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 2047

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,455 1,348 1,394 1,461 1,538 1,613 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.004 -0.007 -0.006 -0.004 -0.002 -0.001 0.007

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.17 5.21 5.25 5.24 5.22 5.17 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002

Other (EJ) 1.66 1.56 1.50 1.44 1.40 1.36 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.90 4.94 4.98 4.96 4.95 4.90 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002

Other (Quads) 1.57 1.48 1.42 1.37 1.33 1.29 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) -0.003 -0.009 -0.002 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.003 0.007 -0.001 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.001 -0.004 -0.007 -0.006 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Extrapolation
14-5

Table 14.3.4 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

Table 14.3.5 Dishwashers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 2047

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,392 1,458 1,535 1,609 Electricity Sales (TWh) -1.76 -3.07 -3.72 -4.05 -4.28 -4.46 -3.41

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.25 5.23 5.22 5.16 Natural Gas (EJ) -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Other (EJ) 1.50 1.44 1.40 1.36 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.96 4.94 4.89 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Other (Quads) 1.42 1.37 1.33 1.29 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,906 2,067 2,137 2,217 Coal (TWh) -1.03 -1.16 -0.91 -0.79 -0.79 -0.79 -0.79

Gas (TWh) 1,000 998 1,146 1,281 Gas (TWh) -0.34 -1.30 -2.01 -2.20 -2.20 -2.20 -2.20

Petroleum (TWh) 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) -0.02 0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Nuclear (TWh) 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Renewables (TWh) 607 672 703 723 Renewables (TWh) -0.29 -0.47 -0.42 -0.54 -0.54 -0.54 -0.54

Total (TWh) 4,434 4,660 4,907 5,142 Total (TWh) -1.68 -2.92 -3.33 -3.55 -3.55 -3.55 -3.55

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 323 325 329 334 Coal (GW) -0.06 -0.06 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06

Other Fossil (GW) 469 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) -0.09 -0.28 -0.47 -0.52 -0.52 -0.52 -0.52

Nuclear (GW) 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Renewables (GW) 158 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) -0.06 -0.10 -0.13 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14

Total (GW) 1,061 1,095 1,145 1,195 Total (GW) -0.20 -0.44 -0.66 -0.72 -0.72 -0.72 -0.72

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 2047

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,392 1,458 1,534 1,609 Electricity Sales (TWh) -1.94 -3.39 -4.12 -4.50 -4.78 -5.00 -3.85

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.21 5.20 5.14 Natural Gas (EJ) -0.01 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03

Other (EJ) 1.50 1.44 1.40 1.36 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 4.94 4.92 4.87 Natural Gas (Quads) -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03

Other (Quads) 1.42 1.36 1.32 1.29 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,906 2,067 2,136 2,217 Coal (TWh) -1.14 -1.28 -1.01 -0.88 -0.88 -0.88 -0.88

Gas (TWh) 1,000 998 1,146 1,281 Gas (TWh) -0.38 -1.44 -2.23 -2.45 -2.45 -2.45 -2.45

Petroleum (TWh) 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) -0.02 0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Nuclear (TWh) 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Renewables (TWh) 607 672 703 723 Renewables (TWh) -0.32 -0.52 -0.47 -0.60 -0.60 -0.60 -0.60

Total (TWh) 4,434 4,660 4,907 5,142 Total (TWh) -1.85 -3.23 -3.69 -3.95 -3.95 -3.95 -3.95

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 323 325 329 334 Coal (GW) -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06

Other Fossil (GW) 469 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) -0.10 -0.31 -0.53 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58

Nuclear (GW) 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Renewables (GW) 158 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) -0.07 -0.11 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15

Total (GW) 1,061 1,095 1,145 1,195 Total (GW) -0.23 -0.49 -0.73 -0.80 -0.80 -0.80 -0.80

Extrapolation
14-6

Table 14.3.6 presents the estimated reduction in electricity generating capacity in 2047

for the TSLs that DOE considered in this rulemaking.

Table 14.3.6 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2047 Under Dishwasher Trial 

Standard Levels

Dishwashers

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4

0.011

gigawatts

0.001 0.719 0.800
14-7

REFERENCES

1. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035: 

Reference Case Service Report. 2010. Washington, DC. April. Report No. DOE/EIA0383(2010). (Last accessed July 11, 2012.) 

<http://infousa.state.gov/economy/technology/docs/0383.pdf>