EPA IPM Run Results

All costs and prices are in 2007-year dollars

NATIONWIDE EMISSIONS 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020

SO2 (million tons) 3.8 3.5 7.2 6.7 1.8 1.9 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.8

NOx (million tons) 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8

CO2 (million metric tons) 2227 2306 2252 2333 2219 2297 2226 2310 2218 2298

Hg (tons) 25 25 29 29 9 9 25 26 25 25

TOTAL COSTS 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020

Total Costs (billion $) 149.29 160.10 143.46 155.16 155.22 165.26 144.12 155.60 145.76 156.96

PRICES 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020

National Wholesale Electricity Price (m 48.22 49.74 45.32 48.09 49.17 50.13 46.30 49.17 47.40 49.74

Natural Gas Prices (2007 $/MMBtu)

Henry Hub 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Delivered 5.64 5.01 5.37 4.90 5.73 4.99 5.34 4.95 5.46 5.01

Minemouth Coal Prices (2007 $/MMBtu)

Appalachia 2.07 2.18 2.07 2.20 2.11 2.20 2.04 2.15 2.03 2.15

Imports 2.27 2.10 2.27 2.18 2.19 2.03 2.16 2.09 2.16 2.04

Interior 1.70 1.80 1.74 1.83 1.75 1.82 1.64 1.72 1.64 1.72

Waste Coal 1.16 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.16 1.17

West 0.80 0.83 0.80 0.84 0.80 0.84 0.84 0.81 0.83 0.81

National 1.37 1.43 1.37 1.44 1.38 1.42 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.37

Emission Allowance Prices ($/Ton) 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020

SO2 Region 1 (TR) - - - - 0.00 0.00 1,317.00 1,814.00 1,315.00 1,811.00

SO2 Region 2 (TR) - - - - 0.00 0.00 651.00 457.50 642.00 477.20

SO2 (Title IV) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

NOx Annual (TR) - - - - 0.00 0.00 556.80 766.80 761.30 1,048.00

NOx Ozone Season (TR) - - - - 0.00 0.00 1,814.00 2,498.00 1,509.00 2,078.00

CO2 ($/metric ton) - - - - - - - - - -

EMISSION CONSTRAINTS (Mtons) 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020

SO2 Region 1 (TR) - - - - 1,063 1,050 1,513 1,406 1,515 1,409

SO2 Region 2 (TR) - - - - 296 288 790 790 790 790

SO2 (Title IV) 3,697 3,322 7,029 6,600 1,697 1,685 3,276 3,143 2,785 2,672

NOx Annual (TR) - - - - 1,145 1,174 1,165 1,172 1,168 1,173

NOx Ozone Season (TR) - - - - 537 558 569 578 569 579

CO2 (metric ton) - - - - - - - - - -

TOTAL CAPACITY (Cumulative GW) 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020

Hydro 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99

Non-Hydro Renewables 70 73 70 72 70 73 70 73 70 73

 Biomass 3 6 3 5 3 5 3 5 3 5

 Other 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

 Wind 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59

Coal 308 305 316 313 303 302 310 310 307 307

 PC 305 302 312 310 300 299 307 307 304 304

 IGCC 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

 IGCC - CCS 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

New Future Technology 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nuclear 104 105 103 105 105 106 104 105 104 105

Natural Gas 348 352 347 351 348 355 348 352 348 352

 CC 205 209 205 208 205 212 205 209 205 210

 CT 143 143 142 142 143 143 142 143 142 143

Oil/Gas Steam 91 91 90 90 90 90 90 89 90 90

Other 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Grand Total 1,024 1,029 1,029 1,034 1,019 1,029 1,025 1,032 1,023 1,030

NEW CAPACITY (Cumulative GW) 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020

Non-Hydro Renewables 25 27 24 27 25 27 25 27 25 27

 Biomass 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2

 Other 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

 Wind 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Coal 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

 PC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

BART+TR

Run 2

Final CSAPR

Run 130

Nationwide BART

Run 1d

Basecase

Run 2n

Proposed MATS

Run 31
 IGCC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 IGCC - CCS 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

New Future Technology 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nuclear 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas 3 7 3 7 3 10 3 7 3 8

 CC 1 4 1 4 1 8 1 5 1 5

 CT 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3

Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Grand Total 30 36 30 36 30 39 30 36 30 37

RETIREMENTS (GW) 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020

Advanced Coal Retirement 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

CC Retirements 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Coal Retirements 9 10 3 5 14 14 9 7 10 9

CT Retirements 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1

Nuclear Retirements 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

O/G Retirements 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 19 20

Grand Total 30 31 26 28 35 35 30 30 32 30

GENERATION MIX (thousand GWh) 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020

Hydro 288 288 287 287 288 287 286 285 287 286

Non-Hydro Renewables 275 313 272 310 273 310 273 310 274 310

 Biomass 19 34 17 31 19 33 18 33 18 33

 Other 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49

 Wind 181 181 179 179 179 179 179 179 179 179

 Biomass Co-firing 26 49 26 50 25 49 27 48 27 48

Coal 1,970 1,987 2,017 2,037 1,961 1,976 1,977 2,001 1,962 1,983

 PC 1,946 1,964 1,993 2,013 1,937 1,953 1,953 1,978 1,938 1,959

 IGCC 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

 IGCC - CCS 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

New Future Technology 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nuclear 829 836 822 832 831 841 828 838 830 839

Natural Gas 694 812 662 779 705 826 692 807 705 820

 CC 675 786 645 755 684 800 673 781 685 795

 CT 19 27 18 24 21 25 19 26 19 26

Oil/Gas Steam 28 49 24 44 25 47 23 43 24 44

Other 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Grand Total 4,106 4,308 4,107 4,311 4,106 4,309 4,102 4,306 4,103 4,304

TOTAL CONTROLS (Cumulative GW) 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020

FGD 245 250 179 187 228 227 209 214 220 224

 Existing Scrubber 145 144 148 148 145 145 148 148 146 146

 Existing Wet Scrubber 122 122 126 126 123 123 126 126 124 124

 Existing Dry Scrubber 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

 Non-Disapatchable Scrubber 57 64 8 17 33 34 15 20 25 30

 Retrofit Wet Scrubber 19 23 5 11 6 7 11 14 17 20

 Retrofit Dry Scrubber 38 41 4 5 27 27 4 6 8 10

 Disapatchable Scrubber 43 42 23 22 50 49 46 46 49 49

 Retrofit Wet Scrubber 39 39 20 20 45 45 44 44 45 45

 Retrofit Dry Scrubber 5 4 2 2 4 4 2 2 4 4

 New Scrubber 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 New Wet Scrubber 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 New Dry Scrubber 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SCR 152 155 141 144 145 147 146 149 151 155

 Existing SCR 117 116 122 121 120 119 121 121 121 121

 Non-Disapatchable SCR 26 30 14 17 17 19 14 18 20 23

 Disapatchable SCR 9 9 6 6 9 9 11 11 11 11

 New SCR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SNCR 27 26 28 27 23 23 27 27 27 27

 Existing SNCR 27 26 28 27 23 23 27 27 27 27

 Retrofit SNCR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 New SNCR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ACI 52 52 53 53 146 147 52 52 51 51

 Existing ACI 47 47 48 48 48 48 48 48 47 47

 Retrofit ACI 5 5 5 5 98 99 5 5 4 4

 New ACI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nationwide BART Basecase Proposed MATS Final CSAPR BART+TR

Run 1d Run 2n Run 31 Run 130 Run 2
CCS 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

 Hardwired CCS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Retrofit CCS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 New CCS 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

DSI 1 3 7 7 65 65 9 9 9 10

C2G 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NON-DISPATCHABLE RETROFITS (Cum 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020

FGD 57 64 8 17 33 34 15 20 25 30

SCR 26 30 14 17 17 19 14 18 20 23

SNCR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ACI 5 5 5 5 98 99 5 5 4 4

CCS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

DSI 1 3 7 7 65 65 9 9 9 10

C2G 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

DISPATCHABLE RETROFITS (Cumulati 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020

DFGD 43 42 23 22 50 49 46 46 49 49

DSCR 9 9 6 6 9 9 11 11 11 11

TOTAL CONTROLS IN NEEDS

FGD

SCR

SNCR

ACI

FUEL SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020

Coal Use by Region (million tons) 1,060 1,064 1,084 1,090 1,130 1,128 1,063 1,073 1,054 1,062

 Power Sector 993 1,005 1,017 1,031 1,058 1,062 995 1,014 987 1,003

 Appalachia 183 174 182 177 208 199 183 171 184 171

 Imports 30 37 30 37 30 37 30 37 30 37

 Interior 230 247 238 249 242 237 216 221 215 221

 Waste Coal 13 13 14 14 13 13 14 14 14 14

 West 537 533 554 555 565 575 552 572 545 560

 Non-Power Sector 68 60 68 60 72 66 68 60 68 60

 Appalachia 37 33 37 33 40 34 37 33 37 33

 Interior 15 11 15 11 9 9 15 11 15 11

 West 16 16 16 16 22 22 16 16 16 16

Power Sector Coal Use by Rank (TBtu) 19,833 20,013 20,265 20,476 19,905 20,083 19,845 20,112 19,694 19,922

 Bituminous 11,446 11,486 11,578 11,591 11,628 11,547 11,305 11,109 11,205 11,056

 Subbituminous 7,511 7,496 7,782 7,825 7,668 7,885 7,705 8,141 7,688 8,032

 Lignite 876 1,031 904 1,060 609 651 835 863 802 835

Natural Gas Use (Tcf) 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6
2015

Run 1d -- National BART

column BQ (post combustion control

Run 2 -- BART+TR

Coal Retirements 8.9 (90) 7.1 (80) 1.8 (10)

Existing FGD among BART unit 88.5 (182) 66 (132) 22 (50)

New FGD 75.6 (186) 60 (142) 15.6 (44)

GW Total TR West

BART Effected Units 195 (489) 170 (420) 25 (69)

3.3 (8)

19 (46)

195 (489)

88.5 (182)

106 (258)

9.2 (39)

170 (420)

66 (132)

86 (212)

5.9 (31)

Total TR West

25 (69)

22 (50)

BART Effected Units

Existing FGD among BART unit

New FGD (all wet)

Coal Retirements

GW
2015

State Name

National 

BART 

(Run 1d)

BART+TR 

(Run 2)

Final TR 

(Run 130)

Basecase 

(Run 2n) 2-130 1d-130

TR bt 

BART 

(2-1d)

National 

BART (1d)

BART+TR 

(Run 2)

Final TR 

(Run 130)

Basecase 

(Run 2n) 2-130 1d-130

TR bt 

BART 

(2-1d) State Name

Alabama 181.5 168.5 171.7 417.3 -3.2 9.9 -13.0 74.1 70.3 69.3 76.0 1.0 4.8 -3.8 Alabama

Arizona 24.6 24.6 35.6 35.6 -11.0 -11.0 0.0 26.0 26.0 35.6 35.6 -9.6 -9.6 0.0 Arizona

Arkansas 38.1 39.7 103.8 99.4 -64.1 -65.7 1.6 26.2 36.9 36.8 36.3 0.1 -10.6 10.7 Arkansas

California 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 27.0 27.1 29.8 26.9 -2.7 -2.8 0.0 California

Colorado 22.4 26.6 73.5 62.1 -46.9 -51.1 4.2 46.9 48.0 49.4 49.4 -1.4 -2.5 1.2 Colorado

Connecticut 1.9 1.9 4.5 3.8 -2.5 -2.6 0.0 2.7 2.5 7.3 2.9 -4.8 -4.6 -0.2 Connecticut

Delaware 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.7 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 Delaware

DC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DC

Florida 77.5 79.8 147.0 143.6 -67.2 -69.5 2.3 81.0 75.7 89.5 100.6 -13.8 81.0 -5.3 Florida

Georgia 151.4 93.6 91.7 170.3 1.9 59.8 -57.9 45.4 41.8 41.5 49.4 0.3 -44.1 -3.7 Georgia

Idaho 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 -40.9 0.0 Idaho

Illinois 116.1 133.7 132.1 141.6 1.5 -16.0 17.5 49.3 49.6 52.7 55.3 -3.1 48.7 0.4 Illinois

Indiana 454.5 202.9 204.2 727.8 -1.4 250.3 -251.6 107.8 111.5 110.4 117.8 1.1 55.1 3.7 Indiana

Iowa 43.9 83.8 83.0 133.1 0.8 -39.1 39.9 41.8 42.4 41.9 48.4 0.5 -68.6 0.6 Iowa

Kansas 19.8 49.1 49.1 69.8 0.0 -29.3 29.3 22.6 24.4 24.8 32.6 -0.4 -19.3 1.9 Kansas

Kentucky 164.9 125.4 125.4 488.0 0.0 39.5 -39.5 75.4 78.0 77.3 83.5 0.7 50.6 2.6 Kentucky

Louisiana 81.2 92.6 139.2 118.2 -46.6 -58.0 11.4 31.7 31.7 31.6 31.6 0.1 -45.6 0.0 Louisiana

Maine 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 6.2 5.4 6.3 5.4 -0.9 -25.4 -0.8 Maine

Maryland 36.5 28.6 28.8 42.9 -0.2 7.7 -7.9 15.6 16.8 20.2 17.6 -3.4 9.3 1.2 Maryland

Massachusetts 8.4 8.4 14.1 13.4 -5.8 -5.7 -0.1 7.2 7.1 11.9 7.0 -4.8 -13.0 -0.1 Massachusetts

Michigan 141.4 174.3 174.2 269.4 0.0 -32.9 32.9 64.7 62.3 62.1 67.7 0.2 52.8 -2.4 Michigan

Minnesota 56.5 50.1 50.3 70.9 -0.2 6.2 -6.4 34.1 35.1 36.5 41.5 -1.4 -28.0 1.1 Minnesota

Mississippi 16.3 17.8 32.1 31.0 -14.3 -15.8 1.5 19.7 19.5 26.1 26.3 -6.6 -16.8 -0.2 Mississippi

Missouri 107.9 181.8 179.3 390.3 2.5 -71.4 73.8 50.3 51.2 50.6 57.3 0.6 24.2 0.9 Missouri

Montana 5.9 6.7 22.8 15.4 -16.2 -17.0 0.8 13.4 13.5 19.3 19.4 -5.8 -37.2 0.1 Montana

Nebraska 32.9 71.2 71.5 73.1 -0.3 -38.6 38.3 30.2 28.1 28.4 45.0 -0.3 10.9 -2.2 Nebraska

Nevada 14.8 14.8 14.4 14.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.1 -0.2 -14.6 0.1 Nevada

New Hampshire 4.7 5.2 6.8 6.5 -1.6 -2.1 0.5 3.1 3.0 5.6 5.1 -2.6 -11.0 -0.1 New Hampshire

New Jersey 26.1 6.1 6.5 38.9 -0.4 19.6 -20.1 8.1 7.8 11.1 8.0 -3.3 2.5 -0.3 New Jersey

New Mexico 10.8 11.7 13.9 11.9 -2.2 -3.2 0.9 13.0 13.0 64.8 64.7 -51.8 1.9 0.1 New Mexico

New York 42.1 18.8 20.0 42.9 -1.3 22.1 -23.3 21.8 20.5 26.7 21.7 -6.2 -43.0 -1.3 New York

North Carolina 130.9 74.0 74.1 126.0 0.0 56.8 -56.9 52.2 45.4 45.1 49.3 0.3 25.5 -6.8 North Carolina

North Dakota 37.7 37.0 102.8 103.6 -65.7 -65.1 -0.6 43.9 43.9 53.3 53.3 -9.4 -1.2 0.0 North Dakota

Ohio 546.7 190.0 189.9 851.2 0.1 356.8 -356.7 96.9 90.1 90.1 104.1 0.0 43.6 -6.8 Ohio

Oklahoma 41.4 41.4 138.1 138.0 -96.7 -96.7 0.0 44.6 44.3 44.1 67.0 0.2 -45.5 -0.3 Oklahoma

Oregon 0.2 0.2 11.4 11.3 -11.1 -11.1 0.0 2.3 2.3 9.9 9.6 -7.6 -41.8 0.0 Oregon

Pennsylvania 222.6 134.5 135.5 509.6 -1.0 87.1 -88.1 122.3 118.4 123.4 134.1 -5.0 112.4 -4.0 Pennsylvania

Rhode Island 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.1 -123.0 0.0 Rhode Island

South Carolina 114.0 101.5 100.4 213.3 1.1 13.5 -12.5 34.3 37.0 36.8 39.0 0.2 33.8 2.7 South Carolina

South Dakota 2.4 2.5 29.7 29.7 -27.2 -27.3 0.1 2.5 2.6 14.3 14.3 -11.7 -34.3 0.1 South Dakota

Tennessee 321.3 66.7 67.8 284.5 -1.1 253.5 -254.6 34.7 20.5 20.5 29.3 0.0 20.4 -14.3 Tennessee

Texas 139.3 266.6 266.5 453.3 0.1 -127.3 127.4 139.4 139.5 139.3 142.1 0.2 118.9 0.1 Texas

Utah 32.7 32.1 34.0 33.5 -1.9 -1.3 -0.6 61.7 62.2 67.4 67.4 -5.2 -77.6 0.5 Utah

Vermont 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 -66.9 0.0 Vermont

Virginia 78.7 53.9 54.2 77.3 -0.2 24.5 -24.8 41.9 39.1 43.0 40.5 -3.9 41.5 -2.8 Virginia

Washington 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 10.0 13.8 13.3 -3.8 -33.0 0.0 Washington

West Virginia 165.1 90.4 90.4 498.5 0.0 74.7 -74.7 65.7 53.2 54.5 64.8 -1.3 51.9 -12.5 West Virginia

Wisconsin 52.1 51.4 50.9 130.5 0.5 1.1 -0.6 36.5 34.5 34.3 40.7 0.2 -18.0 -2.1 Wisconsin

Wyoming 37.2 42.9 58.0 51.8 -15.1 -20.8 5.7 46.5 46.5 70.8 70.2 -24.3 12.2 0.0 Wyoming

National 3820.4 2918.4 3415.2 7159.6 -496.8 405.3 -902.1 1798.0 1755.9 1945.6 2089.4 -189.7 -76.8 -42.1 National

TR 3346.4 2416.9 2417.7 6220.6 -0.8 928.7 -929.5 1265.2 1217.5 1240.5 1365.9 -23.0 486.0 -47.8 TR

State Name

National 

BART 

(Run 1d)

BART+TR 

(Run 2)

Final TR 

(Run 130)

Basecase 

(Run 2n) 2-130 1d-130

National 

BART (1d)

BART+TR 

(Run 2)

Final TR 

(Run 130)

Basecase 

(Run 2n) 2-130 1d-130

Annual NOx (1000 Tons)

Annual SO2 (1000 Tons) Annual NOx (1000 Tons)

Annual SO2 (1000 Tons)