10

- D

- i 

### APPENDIX 10

- D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE

USING ALTERNATIVE BA SE CASE EFFICIENCY T REND

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10

- D.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ............................... 10

- D

- 1

10

- D.2 NIA RESULTS USING AL TERNATIVE BASE CASE EFFICIENCY

TREND

................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 10

- D

- 4

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10

- D.1.1 Dishwasher Alternative Base

- Case Efficiency Distributions

.................. 10

- D

- 1

Table 10

- D.1.2 Standard

- size Dishwashers: Standards Case Market Shares by TSL

...... 10

- D

- 3

Table 10

- D.1.3 Compact Dishwashers: Standards Case Market Shares by TSL

.............. 10

- D

- 3

Table 10

- D.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings and National Water Savings

, Alternative Base Case Efficiency Trend

................................ .................. 10

- D

- 4

Table 10

- D.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Alternative Base

C ase Efficiency Trend

................................ ................................ .............. 10

- D

- 5

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 10

- D.1.2 Standard

- Size Dishwashers: Alternative Standards Case Efficiency

Projections

................................ ................................ ................................ 10

- D

- 410

- D

- 1 

### APPENDIX 10

- D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE

USING ALTERNATIVE BA SE CASE EFFICIENCY T REND

10

- D.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix presents national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV)

results using an alternative base case efficiency trend.

Appendix 8

- F describes how DOE developed a base

- case energy efficiency distribution

(which yields a shipment

- weighted average efficiency) for each of the considered product classes

for the first year of the forecast period. Table 10.D.1.1 provides the base

- case effi ciency

distributions for the three years in which AHAM provided data ( 2008

- 2010, standard

- size only)

as well as DOE’s projection for 2013 (the assumed effective date of new consensus standards)

and 2018 (the assumed effective date of new standards in the a bsence of a consensus agreement)

.

Table 10

- D.1.1 Dishwasher Alternative Base

- Case Efficiency Distributions

Standard

- Size Compact

Efficiency

Level 2008 2009 2010 Base Case Base Case

2013 2018 2013 2018

Baseline 56.4% 38.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 25.0% 25.0%

1 30.0% 41.1% 51.8% 43.2% 15.1% 25.0% 25.0%

2 7.8% 8.9% 21.5% 28.0% 32.7% 50.0% 50.0%

3 5.8% 5.2% 15.3% 16.4% 18.5%

-- --

4 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% 8.6% 14.7%

-- --

5 0.0% 2.0% 2.5% 0.0% 15.1%

-- --

SWAEU 338.4 326.5 309.0 307.9 279.2 197.5 197.5

SWWU 6.04 5.75 5.21 4.83 4.69 3.05 3.05

SWAEU: Shipment weighted annual energy use

SWWU: Shipment weighted water use



### To project the trend in efficiency for standard

- sized dishwashers over the entire forecast

period, DOE extended the exponential curve that it derived from historical data on shipment

weighted average kWh per year. The projected trend is depicted in the figure below. This

projection was not performed for compact clothes washers, as not enough data were available.10

- D

- 2 

### Figure 5

- P.1

. 1 Standard

- Size Dishwashers: Alternative Base Case Efficiency Projection

To determine the standards

- case efficiencies, DOE assumed a “roll

- up” scenario to

establish the shipment

- weighted efficiency for the year that standards are assum ed to become

effective (i.e., 2013 or 2018). DOE assumed that product efficiencies in the base case that did not

meet the standard level under consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level.

Also, DOE assumed that all product efficiencies in the base case that were above the standard

level under consideration would not be affected. The tables below display the roll

- up scenarios

used in this analysis for each TSL. 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Annual Energy Use (kWh/year) AHAM Data

Projected Values

Expon. (AHAM Data)10

- D

- 3 

### Table 10

- D.1.2 Standard

- size Dishwashers: Standards Case Market Shares by TSL

TSL

Efficiency

Level AEU

(kWh) Base Case 1

(2018) 2

(2013) 3

(2018) 4

(2018)

Baseline 355 3.8%

- - - -

1 324 15.1% 18.9%

- - -

2 307 32.7% 32.7% 75.0%

- -

3 295 18.5% 18.5% 16.4%

- -

4 234 14.7% 14.7% 8.6% 84.9%

-

5 180 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 15.1% 100.0%

SWAEU (kWh) 279.2 278.0 298.8 225.8 180.0

SWWU (gal) 4.35 4.32 4.77 3.47 1.60

SWAEU: Shipment weighted annual energy use

SWWU: Shipment weighted water use



### Table 10

- D.1.3 Compact Dishwashers: Standards Case Market Shares by TSL

TSL

Efficiency

Level AEU

(kWh) Base Case 1

(2018) 2

(2013) 3

(2018) 4

(2018)

Baseline 260 25.0%

- - - -

1 222 25.0% 50.0% 50.0%

- -

2 154 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0%

SWAEU (kWh) 197.5 188.0 188.0 154.0 154.0

SWWU (gal) 3.05 2.80 2.80 2.10 2.10

SWAEU: Shipment weighted annual energy use SWWU: Shipment weighted water use



### Using the shipment

- weighted efficiency in the compliance year as a starting point, DOE

maintained the same growth rate for projected efficiencies in the standards case as in the base

case. DOE assumed, however, that the average kWh per year would not drop below the max

- tech

efficiency level. The figure below illustrates the projected trend for each TSL.10

- D

- 4 

### Figure 10

- D.1.2 Standard

- Size Dishwashers: Alternative Standards

Case Efficiency Projections

10

- D.2 NIA RESULTS USING AL TERNATIVE BASE CASE EFFICIENCY TREN D

Table 10

- D.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings and National Water Savings,

Alternative Base Case Efficiency Trend

Trial Standard

Level Efficiency Levels NES NWS

Standard Compact quads trillion gal

1 1 1 0.01 0.02

2 2 1 0.13 0.15

3 4 2 0.48 0.50

4 5 2 0.60 0.7110

- D

- 5 

### Table 10

- D.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits

, Alternative Base

Case Efficiency Trend

TSL Efficiency Level

Combination NES ( quads ) NWS ( billion gallons )

Standard

Sized Compact

sized 7%

discounted 3%

discounted 7%

discounted 3%

discounted

1 1 1 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01

2 2 1 0.04 0.07 0.05 0.08

3 4 2 0.14 0.27 0.13 0.27

4 5 2 0.18 0.35 0.21 0.40