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9-i 

CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

9.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 9-2

9.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METHODOLOGY ....................................................................... 9-2

9.2.1 Analyzed Product Classes, Market Sectors, and Market Segments ..................... 9-2

9.2.1.1 Ballast Failure .................................................................................................. 9-3

9.2.1.2 New Construction/Renovation ......................................................................... 9-4

9.3 BASE-CASE INPUTS AND FORECASTS ...................................................................... 9-6

9.3.1 Base-Case Scenarios Analyzed ............................................................................ 9-6

9.3.2 Base-Case Scenarios ............................................................................................ 9-8

9.3.2.1 Historical Shipments ........................................................................................ 9-9

9.3.2.2 Calculation of Installed Stock in 2006 ........................................................... 9-10

9.3.2.3 Base-Case Market-Share Apportionment ...................................................... 9-11

9.3.2.4 Base-Case Forecast Results ........................................................................... 9-14

9.3.2.5 Base-Case Forecast by Market Segment........................................................ 9-18

9.4 STANDARDS-CASE INPUTS ........................................................................................ 9-21

9.4.1 Shipments Scenarios .......................................................................................... 9-21

9.5 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 9-22

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 9-29

LIST OF TABLES

Table 9.2.1. Product Classes and Market Sectors Analyzed in the Shipments Analysis ............. 9-3

Table 9.2.2. Modeled Fluorescent Lamp-and-Ballast Replacement Trends ................................ 9-4

Table 9.3.1. Total Historical Fluorescent Ballast Shipments (millions) ...................................... 9-9

Table 9.3.2. Historical Fluorescent Ballast Shipments by Estimated Life Event (millions) ..... 9-10

Table 9.3.3. 2006 Ballast Stocks (millions) ............................................................................... 9-11

Table 9.3.4. Weighted Apportionments for Standard- and High-Efficiency 4-Foot T8 

MBP Ballasts ..................................................................................................... 9-12

Table 9.3.5. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps (F34T8 

Baseline) ............................................................................................................ 9-12

Table 9.3.6. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp PS Ballasts 

Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps ....................................... 9-12

Table 9.3.7. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps (F34T12 

Baseline) ............................................................................................................ 9-12

Table 9.3.8. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Four-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps ......................... 9-13

Table 9.3.9. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Four-Lamp PS Ballasts 

Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps ....................................... 9-13

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Table 9.3.10. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps (F96T12HO/ES Baseline) ............ 9-13

Table 9.3.11. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps (F96T8HO Baseline) ................... 9-13

Table 9.3.12. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp IS Ballasts 

Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps (F96T12/ES Baseline)................................. 9-13

Table 9.3.13. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp IS Ballasts 

Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps (F96T8 Baseline) ........................................ 9-13

Table 9.3.14. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp PS Ballasts 

Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO Lamps ........................................................... 9-14

Table 9.3.15. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp PS Ballasts 

Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO Lamps .......................................................... 9-14

Table 9.3.16. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps (Low Power 

Factor, F34T12 Baseline)................................................................................... 9-14

Table 9.3.17. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps (Low Power 

Factor, F34T8 Baseline)..................................................................................... 9-14

Table 9.3.18. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Four-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps (Cold Temperature/Sign 

Ballasts).............................................................................................................. 9-14

Table 9.5.1. Cumulative Ballast Shipments Impacts by Standard Level, 2014–2044 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) ............................................................ 9-26

Table 9.5.2. Cumulative Ballast Shipments Impacts by Standard Level, 2014–2044 

(Emerging Technologies, Roll-up Scenario) ..................................................... 9-27

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 9.3.1. 4-Foot MBP Base-Case Forecasted Ballast Shipments (Existing and 

Emerging Technologies Scenarios) ................................................................... 9-15

Figure 9.3.2. 8-Foot RDC HO Base-Case Forecasted Ballast Shipments (Existing and 

Emerging Technologies Scenarios, Excluding Sign Ballasts) ........................... 9-16

Figure 9.3.3. 8-Foot Slimline Base-Case Forecasted Ballast Shipments (Existing and 

Emerging Technology Scenarios) ...................................................................... 9-16

Figure 9.3.4. 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Base-Case Forecasted Ballast Shipments 

(Existing and Emerging Technologies Scenarios) ............................................. 9-17

Figure 9.3.5. Base-Case Forecasted Shipments for Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

in the Residential Sector (Existing and Emerging Technologies Scenarios) ..... 9-17

Figure 9.3.6. Base-Case Forecasted Shipments for Sign Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC 

HO Lamps .......................................................................................................... 9-18

Figure 9.3.7. 4-Foot MBP Base-Case Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment ........... 9-19

Figure 9.3.8. 8-Foot RDC HO Base-Case Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment .... 9-19

Figure 9.3.9. 8-Foot Slimline Base-Case Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment ...... 9-20

Figure 9.3.10. 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market 

Segment.............................................................................................................. 9-20

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Figure 9.5.1. 4-Foot MBP Base Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts 

(Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) .................................................... 9-22

Figure 9.5.2. 4-Foot MBP Base Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) ............................................................ 9-23

Figure 9.5.3. 8-Foot RDC HO (including Cold Temperature/Sign) Base Case and 

Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing Technologies, Shift 

Scenario) ............................................................................................................ 9-23

Figure 9.5.4. 8-Foot RDC HO (including Cold Temperature/Sign) Base Case and 

Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Emerging Technologies, 

Roll-Up Scenario) .............................................................................................. 9-24

Figure 9.5.5. 8-Foot Slimline Base Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) ............................................................ 9-24

Figure 9.5.6. 8-Foot Slimline Base Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts 

(Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) .................................................... 9-25

Figure 9.5.7. 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Base Case and Standards-Case Ballast 

Shipments Forecasts (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) .......................... 9-25

Figure 9.5.8. 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Base Case and Standards-Case Ballast 

Shipments Forecasts (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) .................. 9-26

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CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

9.1 INTRODUCTION

Shipments of fluorescent lamp ballasts (hereafter “ballasts”) are key inputs to the national 

energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) calculations. Shipments are also a necessary 

input to the manufacturer impact analysis (MIA), which the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) 

conducts for its notices of proposed rulemaking (NOPRs). This chapter describes DOE’s 

methodology for projecting annual shipments and presents initial inputs and results for ballasts. 

In the shipments analysis, DOE develops a base-case shipment forecast for each ballast

type to depict what would happen to energy use and consumer costs for the purchase and 

operation of lamp-and-ballast systems in the absence of amended Federal energy conservation 

standards. In determining the base case, DOE considers historical shipments, emerging 

technologies, the mix of efficiencies sold in the absence of amended standards, and how that mix 

might change over time. To evaluate the impacts of standards on ballasts, DOE then compares 

the base-case projection with forecasts of what could happen if DOE promulgates amended 

standards (the standards case). DOE considers multiple shipments scenarios to characterize both 

the base- and standards-case shipments. To determine the cumulative NES and NPV of 

standards, DOE compares forecasted shipments of a base to a standards case over the national 

impact analysis (NIA) analysis period, 2014–2044. 

The shipments model and the national impacts model are integrated into a single 

Microsoft Excel spreadsheet accessible at 

www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/fluorescent_lamp_ballasts.html. 

Appendix 9A discusses how to access the spreadsheet and provides basic instructions for its use. 

This preliminary technical support document (TSD) chapter explains the shipments models. 

Section 9.2 presents the shipments model methodology for ballasts; section 9.3 describes the data 

inputs, historical shipments, base-case scenarios, and shipments forecasts; section 9.4 discusses 

the impacts of proposed amended standards on the mix of ballast designs; and section 9.5

presents the shipments results for the different candidate standard levels (CSLs).

9.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METHODOLOGY

In general, DOE followed a three-step process to forecast ballast shipments. First, DOE 

used 1990 to 2005 historical shipment data from U.S. Census Bureau data to estimate the total 

historical shipments of each ballast type analyzed. Second, DOE calculated an installed stock for 

each ballast type in 2005 based on the average service lifetime of each ballast type. Third, by 

modeling ballast purchasing events, such as replacement and new construction, and applying 

growth rate, replacement rate, and emerging technologies penetration rate assumptions, DOE 

developed annual shipment projections, 2006–2044. 

9.2.1 Analyzed Product Classes, Market Sectors, and Market Segments

DOE forecasted annual shipments for the ballast and market sectors presented in 

Table 9.2.1. The shipments model analyzes all ballast types at CSLs that assign efficiency levels 

for each product class. 

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Table 9.2.1. Product Classes and Market Sectors Analyzed in the Shipments Analysis 

Product Class Baseline Market Sectors

Two-Lamp Rapid-start (RS) and Instant-Start (IS) Ballasts Operating 4-Foot 

Medium Bipin (MBP) and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps

F32T8 Commercial

Two-Lamp Programmed-Start (PS) Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot 

U-Shaped Lamps

F32T8 Commercial

Two-Lamp RS and IS Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps F34T12 Commercial

Four-Lamp RS and IS Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps F32T8 Commercial

Four-Lamp PS Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps F32T8 Commercial

Two-Lamp RS and IS Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Recessed Double Contact 

(RDC) High-Output (HO) Lamps

F96T12HO/

ES

Industrial

Two-Lamp RS and IS Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps F96T8HO Industrial

Two-Lamp IS Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Single Pin Slimline (Slimline) Lamps F96T12ES Commercial

Two-Lamp IS Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps F96T8 Commercial

Two-Lamp PS Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 Miniature Bipin (MiniBP) Standard 

Output (SO) Lamps

F28T5 Commercial

Two-Lamp PS Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO Lamps F54T5HO Industrial

Two-Lamp RS and IS Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential, 

Low-Power Factor)

F34T12 Residential

Two-Lamp RS and IS Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential, 

Low-Power Factor)

F32T8 Residential

Four-Lamp RS and IS Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps (Cold 

Temperature/Sign Ballasts)

F96T12HO Commercial

Industrial

In its shipments model, DOE considers specific market segments (“ballast purchase 

events”) to develop estimates of annual shipments. These two market segments correspond to the 

ballast purchase events that DOE uses in the life-cycle cost (LCC) and payback period (PBP) 

analyses (preliminary TSD chapter 8). These include ballast failure (Event I) and new 

construction/renovation (Event II). For each market segment, DOE makes certain assumptions 

about how consumers are likely to purchase new ballasts or lamp-and-ballast systems. DOE uses 

these purchasing assumptions to develop the ballast shipment forecasts.

9.2.1.1 Ballast Failure

For those consumer purchases triggered by a ballast failure, DOE assumes that the 

consumer will purchase a ballast identical to the one that has retired, if it is available. If in the 

standards case, the base-case ballast design is not standards-compliant (and therefore unavailable 

as a replacement option), then DOE assumes consumers will purchase a new, standardscompliant lamp-and-ballast system from the same product class such that the system light output, 

if possible, never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system. In some instances this means a 

single ballast is replaced with two ballasts (e.g., replacing one two-lamp, 8-foot slimline lampand-ballast system with two two-lamp, 4-foot MBP lamp-and-ballast systems). Table 9.2.2

below presents a full listing of the modeled lamp-and-ballast system replacement trends. 

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Table 9.2.2. Modeled Fluorescent Lamp-and-Ballast Replacement Trends

Retired Lamp-and-Ballast System Replacement Lamp-and-Ballast System

4-foot T12 electronic MBP (commercial sector) 87.5% 4-foot T8 MBP

12.5% 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO

4-foot T12 electronic MBP (residential sector) replace in kind

4-foot T8 MBP (commercial sector) 87.5% replace in kind

12.5% 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO

4-foot T8 MBP (residential sector) replace in kind

8-foot T12 slimline 10% 8-foot T8 slimline

10% replace in kind

80% two 4-foot T8 MBPs

8-foot T8 slimline replace in kind

8-foot T12 RDC HO 80% two 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO systems

20% 8-foot T8 RDC HO

8-foot T8 RDC HO 80% two 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO systems

20% replace in kind

4-foot T5 MiniBP SO replace in kind

4-foot T5 MiniBP HO replace in kind

8-foot T12 magnetic RDC HO (cold temperature/sign 

ballasts)

replace in kind

DOE establishes the timing of ballast replacements in response to ballast failure by 

tracking ballast shipments and then predicting when these ballasts are expected to retire based on 

their service lifetime. DOE recognizes that ballast lifetimes vary, but was unable to identify an 

industry consensus on failure distributions for different ballast designs. For the preliminary 

analyses, DOE modeled ballasts as having zero failures until the last three years of their service 

lifetime, in which failures were distributed as follows: 

• Second-to-last year: 25 percent of ballasts fail

• Next-to-last year: 33 percent of remaining ballasts fail

• Last year: all remaining ballasts fail.

DOE invites additional comment on the distribution of expected failure rates throughout 

ballast lifetimes. 

DOE calculated average commercial and industrial ballast service lifetimes by dividing 

the average ballast lifetime in hours (established in the LCC) by average annual operating hours. 

As noted in the preliminary TSD chapter 8, the service life in the commercial, residential, and 

industrial sectors is assumed as approximately 15 years, 15 years, and 10 years, respectively. 

9.2.1.2 New Construction/Renovation 

For consumer purchases triggered by new construction and renovation, DOE begins by 

assuming that consumers may purchase new lamp-and-ballast systems to service their particular 

lumen demand from within their current product class. DOE therefore produces initial shipment 

estimates due to new construction and renovation by deriving growth rates for each product 

class. The growth rates are based on EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009),1,2

 which 

estimates annual commercial floor space and residential building growth. Because the AEO2009

considers future trends in economic growth, DOE incorporated macroeconomic conditions in its 

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growth forecasts. However, because the AEO does not provide industrial floor space forecasts, 

DOE used historical MECS floor space values to establish a growth rate for the industrial sector. 

For the commercial and industrial sector, DOE assumes that the intensity of ballasts per unit of 

floor space remains constant (i.e., sector growth rates are assumed to be the only source of 

overall growth in the ballasts market). For the residential sector, DOE assumes a slight growth 

rate in intensity over time. DOE invites further comment on future growth rates for the ballasts 

industry overall. 

However, for several product classes DOE research indicates that the ballasts market is 

moving in a particular direction. In such instances, DOE adjusts its forecasted growth rates for 

particular ballast types accordingly. In almost all cases DOE’s approach is to make these 

adjustments by substituting growth in one product class for another, without adjusting the overall 

number of forecasted shipments. The only exception is that wherever ballasts operating 4-foot 

lamps replace ballasts operating 8-foot lamps, DOE assumes this occurs at a 2:1 ratio. In 

determining what shipment trends to assume for this rulemaking, DOE references its previous 

analysis of fluorescent lamp-and-ballast shipments, performed as part of its proposed rulemaking 

for general service fluorescent and incandescent reflector lamps (GSFL/IRL; hereafter “the 

lamps rulemaking”). 

For the commercial sector, historical lamps shipment data and manufacturer interviews

indicate significant growth for only 4-foot T8 MBP and 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO systems; 

consequently, DOE models all purchases due to new construction in the commercial sector as

being one of these two lamp-and-ballast systems. DOE models commercial sector 4-foot T5 

MiniBP SO and HO shipment growth based on a migration from other product classes. DOE’s 

research indicates that shipment growth of 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO ballasts is primarily driven by a 

migration from the 4-foot MBP market. As this migration requires the purchase of a new fixture, 

to establish 4-foot MiniBP T5 SO shipments, DOE allotted a portion of what would otherwise be 

the 4-foot MBP fixture new construction/renovation market to 4-foot T5 MiniBP systems. In the 

proposed lamps rulemaking, DOE first calculated the size of this potential market for new 4-foot 

T5 MiniBP SO systems in each year. DOE then determined the portion of this market that would 

be serviced by 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO systems by calculating the share that resulted in T5 

shipments consistent with 2006 and 2007 data. For the ballasts shipments model, DOE holds the 

resulting percentage—approximately 12.5 percent of the new construction/renovation market—

constant throughout the analysis period. 

In the industrial sector, confidential historical shipments show a declining number of 

8-foot RDC HO lamps. Therefore, DOE assumes all system purchases due to new construction in 

the industrial sector are 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO systems (another rapidly growing market). In the 

proposed lamps rulemaking, DOE developed 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO ballast shipments by 

modeling a migration from two different lighting markets. Similar to 8-foot RDC HO systems, 

marketing literature indicates a large portion of 4-foot MiniBP T5 HO systems serve high-bay 

applications due to their highly concentrated light output. Historical shipment data for 8-foot 

RDC HO lamps shows substantial declines in 2006 and 2007, indicating T5 HO systems may be 

rapidly displacing 8-foot RDC HO systems. In addition, DOE’s research indicated that a 

significant portion of 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO growth can be attributed to their penetration into the 

high intensity discharge (HID) lamp high- and low-bay markets. Therefore, to calculate the 

growth in 4-foot MiniBP T5 HO ballast shipments, DOE assumed that these systems were 

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penetrating both the 8-foot RDC HO and HID markets. Similar to its analysis for T5 SO systems, 

DOE established that the new construction/renovation market segment represents the available 

market for 4-foot MiniBP T5 HO systems. DOE obtained HID shipment data from the HID 

determination, from which DOE calculated the total lumens servicing low bay and high bay 

applications. Consistent with historical 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO and 8-foot RDC HO shipments, 

DOE assumed 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO systems fully penetrate the 8-foot RDC HO new 

construction/renovation market segment as well as the HID new construction/renovation market 

segment. These same assumptions are applied in the proposed ballast rulemaking. 

For the residential sector, manufacturer interviews indicate that the majority of new 

residential 4-foot MBP fixtures use T8 MBP systems. Consequently, DOE models only 4-foot 

T8 MBP lamp-and-ballast systems for new construction in the residential sector and, based on 

the proposed lamps rulemaking analysis, assumes a 1 percent annual growth rate in floorspace 

intensity for these shipments. 

9.3 BASE-CASE INPUTS AND FORECASTS

This section describes the two base-case scenarios DOE employs in its analysis and the 

base-case input market-share apportioning for ballasts and presents the base-case forecasts for 

each ballast type along with historical ballast shipments data. 

9.3.1 Base-Case Scenarios Analyzed 

DOE recognizes that rapidly emerging new lighting technologies could penetrate the 

fluorescent lighting market and significantly affect ballast shipment forecasts. These 

technologies, such as ceramic metal halide (CMH) and light-emitting diodes (LEDs) already are 

or eventually will be significantly more efficacious and longer lasting than the sources they 

replace. If these emerging technologies achieve their potential, they may significantly affect the 

benefit calculations from efficiency standards. However, to calculate NES and NPV change due 

to emerging technologies, DOE would need to accurately forecast the anticipated price and 

performance points of each emerging technology, a difficult and highly speculative task. Because 

of this high degree of uncertainly, DOE considered two base-case scenarios for ballasts: existing 

technologies and emerging technologies. DOE believes evaluating two base-case scenarios will 

more completely and transparently characterize the uncertainty in estimating emerging

technologies’ market penetration and the consequent impact on NPV and NES. Incorporating 

emerging technologies in the base case does not affect the relative benefits of each CSL and 

prevents uncertain projections of market share, price, or performance from obscuring the benefits 

derived from more efficient ballast designs alone. 

The assumptions and methodology that drive these scenarios and the details specific to 

each are described in sections 9.3.2 and 9.3.3, respectively. In general, DOE calculated the

market penetration of each of the analyzed emerging technologies annually 2006–2045, 

assessing each sector separately. DOE determined the market penetration of the technology 

option that achieved the highest level of penetration in each year in each sector. DOE then 

decreased the analyzed market size in each year in each sector by the amount that corresponded 

to the highest level of market penetration achieved by a technology. 

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For its base-case analysis, DOE estimated the market penetration of two specific 

technologies into the projected installed stock: LED systems and CMH systems. In general, the 

Existing Technologies scenario considers only the market penetration of technologies that have 

reached maturation in terms of price and efficiency. Because LED and CMH systems are 

assumed to have not yet reached maturation, no technologies outside those covered by this 

rulemaking were analyzed in the existing technologies scenario. 

In the emerging technologies scenario, DOE attempts to forecast the market penetration 

of both mature technologies and those technologies that are still undergoing significant changes 

in price and efficiency. Specifically, DOE considered the market penetration of LED systems

and CMH systems in the emerging technologies scenario. 

DOE generally followed a five-step process for each scenario to estimate the market 

penetration of the analyzed emerging technologies and account for their impact on NES and 

NPV. First, DOE developed price, performance, and efficiency forecasts for each of the analyzed 

emerging technologies. Second, using those estimates, DOE calculated the PBP of each 

technology in the relevant sector using the difference between its purchase price, annual 

electricity cost, and annual replacement cost relative to the fluorescent lamp-and-ballast system it 

replaces. Specifically, DOE uses the following formula to calculate simple PBP: 

Annual Electricit Costy ($/klm/yr) Annual Replacemen Costt ($/klm/yr)

Purchase Price ($/klm) Simple Payback ∆ ∆+∆− = 

Where:

Δ = the difference between the two technology options compared, 

Purchase Price = includes the lamp price and fixture price, 

Annual Electricity Cost = 

a function of the mean annual operating hours and efficiency for 

each technology option, the electricity price, and the lumen 

demand, and

Annual Replacement Cost = 

a function of the mean ballast life, annual operating hours, ballast 

price, and labor charge. 

Third, DOE used the relationship between PBP and market penetration to predict the 

market penetration of each technology in the relevant sector annually 2006–2044. The 

relationship, which was used to estimate the penetration of solid-state lighting in a DOE report, 

predicts the market penetration based on the PBP of a technology. DOE assumed this 

relationship is valid for other emerging lighting technologies (i.e., given a PBP duration, a 

technology will achieve a certain market penetration; the greater the PBP, the greater the 

expected market penetration). DOE used a 5-year average of the market penetrations predicted 

by the relationship as its final market penetration. The 5-year average represents the time DOE 

assumed it takes products with lower PBPs to penetrate the market. 

Fourth, when necessary, DOE applied a scaling factor to the predicted market penetration 

to account for observed market trends. Fifth, as stated above, DOE reduced the projected 

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installed stock of covered products in each year by the value that corresponded to the highest 

level of market penetration achieved in each year by one of the analyzed technologies. Thus, 

emerging technologies have the effect of lowering the energy savings of a potential new 

standard. For those covered ballasts remaining, the cost effectiveness of LCC savings (and thus 

the relative cost effectiveness of each CSL) is not impacted. 

9.3.2 Base-Case Scenarios

For the existing technologies scenario, DOE analyzes only the fluorescent ballast 

technologies covered by the rulemaking because it believes that no mature technologies in the 

current market show the potential to penetrate the fluorescent ballast market significantly. 

(A rapidly growing market, T5 systems are considered in the analysis as covered products). In 

the emerging technologies scenario, however, DOE separately considered the potential market 

penetration of two technologies: LED (into the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors) 

and CMH (into the commercial and industrial sectors). 

This rulemaking references DOE’s previous analysis of LED market penetration,

performed as part of the proposed lamps rulemaking. In its analysis, DOE found a commercially

available retrofit kit that included a LED replacement for a 4-foot MBP lamp-and-ballast system.

DOE used the retrofit kit as a current baseline from which to project future cost, efficiency and 

price points. DOE interviewed an integrated circuit manufacturer to develop cost estimates for 

LED driver circuits. For cost estimates of other components, DOE used prices of existing LED 

products already on the market, which it modified in accordance with cost data and efficiency

projections from DOE’s Solid State Lighting Multi-Year Program Plan.3

 After applying a 

markup based on currently available LED lamps, DOE arrived at price and efficiency projections 

for the LED luminaire in the retrofit kit. Because they are based on an existing LED retrofit kit, 

DOE’s projections did not consider innovations in form factor or OLED technology that could 

improve the possible PBP for solid-state lighting technologies. For further detail on DOE’s price 

and efficiency forecasts of potential LED replacements, see appendix 10C of the GSFL/IRL 

NOPR TSD.4

In this rulemaking, DOE also analyzed the potential penetration of CMH into the 

fluorescent lighting market. DOE first estimated current CMH prices using a methodology 

similar to the methodology it used to estimate GSFL and IRL prices. Industry experts informed 

DOE that CMH efficiencies and lifetimes would increase over the next several years while prices 

would remain constant. Applying these lifetime and efficiency projections, DOE compared CMH 

replacements to GSFL systems. As a result, DOE assumed no market penetration of CMH into 

T5 systems because it found that T5 lamp systems (standard output and high output) would 

always be less costly and more efficacious than projected CMH replacements. Given this 

information, DOE believes that it is likely that migration to CMH (from the GSFL market) will 

be instead dominated by the migration to standard and high output T5 lamps. 

 Following the five-step process described above, DOE calculated a 41 percent 

market penetration rate of LED lamps into the 4-foot fluorescent system commercial sector by 

2044. In the residential sector, the LED option did not have a low enough PBP to result in any 

market penetration. DOE assumed LED systems penetrated only the new construction/renovation 

market because these systems would require their own specific fixtures. 

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9.3.2.1 Historical Shipments

DOE used U.S. Census Bureau Current Industrial Reports (CIR) for ballasts to estimate 

historical shipments for affected ballast designs.5,6

DOE estimated historical ballast shipments for 1990–2005. This time period 

encompasses the longest ballast service life considered in the shipments analysis (i.e., 15 years 

for ballasts in the residential sector) and ends with the last full year of shipments data from 

Current Industrial Reports for fluorescent ballasts (CIRs for ballasts were discontinued in 2006). 

For those reporting years for which specific shipments data were not available, DOE 

extrapolated historical shipments based on trends within the available data, and/or market trends 

identified in ballast manufacturer interviews, the proposed lamps rulemaking, and the 

Fluorescent Ballasts Energy Conservation Standards Final Rule published on September 19, 

2000 (hereafter “the 2000 Ballast Rule”). 65 FR 56740; 10 CFR 430.23(m)(4). Where shipments 

data were aggregated and not available for specific ballast designs, DOE estimated historical 

shipments based on apportionment estimates and market trends identified in ballast manufacturer 

interviews, the proposed lamps rulemaking and the 2000 Ballast Rule. To validate these 

estimation methods, DOE requested historical ballast and residential fixture shipments from 

NEMA but was unable to obtain this data.

 The census data contain NEMA shipments for 

individual ballast designs (e.g., 2-lamp F96T8) as well as aggregated shipments for multiple 

designs to keep manufacturer information confidential. For some ballast designs, all shipments 

are withheld to prevent disclosing data for individual companies. 

Recognizing that shipment estimates based on CIR data reflect only the shipments of 

NEMA members, DOE increases these estimates to account for the volume of ballasts that nonNEMA companies import or manufacture. Based on ballast manufacturer interviews and 

conservative estimates, NEMA shipments were assumed to account for 50–90 percent of total 

ballast shipments, depending on the ballast design. Table 9.3.1 provides historical fluorescent 

ballast shipments estimates for the entire U.S. market. 

Table 9.3.1. Total Historical Fluorescent Ballast Shipments (millions)

Year 4-Foot 

T8 

MBP

4-Foot 

T12 

MBP

8-Foot 

T8 

Slimline

8-Foot 

T12 

Slimline

8-Foot T8 

RDC HO

8-Foot T12 

RDC HO

4-Foot T5 

MiniBP SO

4-Foot T5 

MiniBP HO

Total

1990 11.3 7.6 0.1 1.0 0.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 23.2

1991 24.6 8.7 0.2 1.0 0.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 37.8

1992 36.3 9.3 0.4 1.0 0.1 3.5 0.0 0.0 50.5

1993 58.4 9.3 0.7 0.9 0.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 73.0

1994 51.9 7.9 0.6 0.9 0.1 3.7 0.0 0.0 65.0

1995 70.5 6.7 1.0 0.9 0.1 3.8 0.0 0.0 83.1

1996 67.2 6.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 3.5 0.0 0.0 78.7

1997 79.3 6.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 3.2 0.0 0.0 90.7

1998 85.8 6.1 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.8 0.0 0.0 96.4

1999 88.6 6.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 3.7 0.0 0.0 100.2

2000 99.8 5.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.2 0.0 0.0 110.9

2001 116.1 5.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 127.1

2002 118.8 5.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 3.2 0.9 0.9 131.5

2003 116.4 3.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.2 1.9 1.9 129.3

2004 118.6 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 133.0

2005 114.4 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.3 3.4 3.4 127.8

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
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9-10

9.3.2.2 Calculation of Installed Stock in 2006 

Based on historical ballast shipments estimated from U.S. Census Bureau CIR data, DOE 

calculates the 2006 ballast stock. In a mature market, DOE typically estimates the installed stock 

at the beginning of an analysis period by summing the historical shipments for the years that 

correspond to the service lifetime (i.e., the lifetime in hours divided by operating hours per year) 

of each ballast type for every sector. 

However, the historical ballasts shipment data Table 9.3.1 reflect a remarkable 450 

percent growth over 15 years, from 23.2 million ballasts in 1990 to 127.8 million ballasts in 

2005. In the absence of clear data on historical ballasts stock, DOE judged that this very strong 

growth in ballasts shipments was unlikely to reflect equivalent growth in ballasts stock, and 

would likely not persist through 2044. Rather, DOE assumed that some portion of this very 

strong growth in shipment was likely due to early retirement of ballasts, consistent with the 

development of several improved ballasts technologies in the 1990–2005 period. 

DOE conservatively assumed that the historical stock of ballasts actually grew by only 2 

percent over the period 1990–2005 (Table 9.3.2) and that the remainder of the strong growth in 

fluorescent lamp ballasts shipments was due to technology-induced retrofits. Accordingly, DOE 

calculates the installed stock in 2006 as the estimated share of historical shipments that are not 

due to technology-induced retrofits. DOE then extrapolated an adjusted shipments estimate by 

taking the difference between the 1990–2005 shipments growth rates and the assumed 2 percent 

growth rate of historical stock.

Table 9.3.2. Historical Fluorescent Ballast Shipments by Estimated Life Event (millions)

Year Historical Shipments Estimated 

Number of 

Early Retirement 

Shipments

Adjusted 

Shipments 

Estimate

Total Growth 

Rate

% 

Assumed 

Historical Stock 

Growth Rate

%

1990 23.2 unknown unknown unknown 23.2

1991 37.8 63 2 14.1 23.7

1992 50.5 34 2 12.0 38.5

1993 73.0 45 2 33.7 39.3

1994 65.0 -11 2 24.9 40.1

1995 83.1 28 2 42.2 40.9

1996 78.7 -5 2 37.0 41.7

1997 90.7 15 2 48.1 42.5

1998 96.4 6 2 53.0 43.4

1999 100.2 4 2 56.0 44.3

2000 110.9 11 2 65.7 45.1

2001 127.1 15 2 81.0 46.0

2002 131.5 3 2 84.5 47.0

2003 129.3 -2 2 81.4 47.9

2004 133.0 3 2 84.1 48.9

2005 127.8 -4 2 78.0 49.8

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
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9-11

DOE then produced stock estimates by summing backwards from 2005 and applying 

ballast product lifetimes to this adjusted shipments estimate. To accurately forecast ballast 

shipments, DOE assumed a ballast age distribution for the installed ballast stocks using trends in 

ballast shipments, calibrated to the available shipment data. Table 9.3.3 provides ballast stocks in 

2006 for all analyzed ballast types. 

Table 9.3.3. 2006 Ballast Stocks (millions)

System Type 4-Foot 

T8 

MBP

4-Foot 

T12

MBP

8-Foot 

T8 

Slimline

8-Foot 

T12 

Slimline

8-Foot T8 

RDC HO

8-Foot 

T12 RDC 

HO

4-Foot 

T5 

MiniBP

SO

4-Foot 

T5 

MiniBP 

HO

Stock 1,131 73 15 9 1 38 12 10

First year of service 46 2 1 0 0 3 2 1

Halfway through 

service lifetime

82 6 1 1 0 3 0 0

Last year of service 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0

9.3.2.3 Base-Case Market-Share Apportionment

As discussed in the engineering analysis (preliminary TSD chapter 5) and the LCC and 

PBP analyses (preliminary TSD chapter 8), consumers have a variety of choices in replacement 

ballasts and lamp-and-ballast systems. When choosing lighting systems, consumers often make 

their choices considering attributes such as lifetime, efficiency, price, lumen output, rated 

wattage, and total system power. DOE captures these considerations by designing product 

classes which account for these consumer preferences. As discussed earlier, the shipments for 

ballasts depend on such input assumptions as ballast lifetime and system lumen output. In 

addition, other ballast or lamp-and-ballast system properties such as price and energy 

consumption are key inputs to the NES and NPV calculations. Therefore, within each product 

class, DOE believes it is necessary to directly account for the mix of technologies that consumers 

select in the base and standards case. To account for the range of possible consumer choices, 

DOE develops technology market-share apportionments. These market-share apportionments are 

used to estimate historical shipments and installed stock for each ballast design in the base and 

standards case. As discussed in the NIA (preliminary TSD chapter 10), the base- and standardscase efficiency forecasts also depend on the market-share apportionments. 

DOE was not able to obtain detailed historical ballast shipment data from NEMA to 

develop percentage market shares for the analyzed ballast designs. However, based on 

manufacturer interviews, DOE was able to develop a general assumed market-share 

apportionment based on shipments of 4-foot T8 MBP electronic ballasts. Interviewed 

manufacturers provided estimated percentages of standard-efficiency and high-efficiency T8

ballasts sold through OEM fixture and electrical wholesaler distribution channels. As presented 

in Table 9.3.4, DOE developed weighted apportionments for the two efficiency levels. 

Specifically, DOE assumes that 69 percent of shipped 4-foot T8 MBP electronic ballasts are 

standard-efficiency designs, and 31 percent are high-efficiency designs. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
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9-12

Table 9.3.4. Weighted Apportionments for Standard- and High-Efficiency 4-Foot T8 MBP 

Ballasts 

Ballast Efficiency Shipments through Distribution Channel

% 

Fixture OEM Electrical Wholesaler Weighted Average

Standard 80 50 69

High 20 50 31

Overall volume through 

distribution channel*

63 37 100

* Pecentages from the 2000 Ballast Rule.

DOE believes that this apportionment is a reasonable estimate for the other ballast 

product classes analyzed in the base-case shipments model, as it reflects the assumed tendency of 

most consumers to minimize their first cost and select standard-efficiency designs if not 

otherwise required. Consequently, for each product class in the base case, DOE apportions 69 

percent of shipments to the baseline ballast design, and divides the remaining 31 percent of 

shipments (i.e., the high-efficiency apportionment) evenly among the CSL designs. Table 9.3.5

through Table 9.3.18 illustrate the base-case market-share apportionments for ballast designs in 

each product class. 

Table 9.3.5. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps (F34T8 Baseline) 

CSL For Operation Of Ballast Efficacy 

Factor (BEF)

Stock in 2015

% 

Baseline* 2 F32T8 Lamps 1.450 69

1 2 F32T8 Lamps 1.528 16

2 2 F32T8 Lamps 1.548 16

* Baseline meets CSL1 efficacy requirements in this product category.

Table 9.3.6. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp PS Ballasts 

Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps 

CSL For Operation Of BEF Stock in 2015 

%

Baseline 2 F32T8 Lamps 1.424 69

1 2 F32T8 Lamps 1.515 31

Table 9.3.7. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps (F34T12 Baseline) 

CSL For Operation Of BEF Stock in 2015

%

Baseline 2 F34T12 Lamps 1.359 69

1 2 F32T8 Lamps 1.450 10

2 2 F32T8 Lamps 1.528 10

3 2 F32T8 Lamps 1.548 10

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
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9-13

Table 9.3.8. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Four-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps

CSL For Operation Of BEF Stock in 2015

%

Baseline 4 F32T8 Lamps 0.751 69

1 4 F32T8 Lamps 0.757 31

Table 9.3.9. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Four-Lamp PS Ballasts 

Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps

CSL For Operation Of BEF Stock in 2015

%

Baseline 4 F32T8 Lamps 0.719 69

1 4 F32T8 Lamps 0.758 31

Table 9.3.10. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps (F96T12HO/ES Baseline) 

CSL For Operation Of BEF Stock in 2015

%

Baseline 2 F96T12ES/HO Lamps 0.422 69

1 2 F96T12ES/HO Lamps 0.500 10

2 2 F96T8HO Lamps 0.550 10

3 2 F96T8HO Lamps 0.563 10

Table 9.3.11. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps (F96T8HO Baseline) 

CSL For Operation Of BEF Stock in 2015

%

Baseline* 2 F96T8HO Lamps 0.550 69

1 2 F96T8HO Lamps 0.563 31

* Baseline meets CSL1 efficacy requirements in this product category.

Table 9.3.12. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp IS Ballasts 

Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps (F96T12/ES Baseline) 

CSL For Operation Of BEF Stock in 2015

% 

Baseline 2 F96T12ES Lamps 0.797 69

1 2 F96T12ES Lamps 0.807 31

Table 9.3.13. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp IS Ballasts 

Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps (F96T8 Baseline) 

CSL For Operation Of BEF Stock in 2015

% 

Baseline 2 F96T8 Lamps 0.789 69

1 2 F96T8 Lamps 0.810 31

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
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9-14

Table 9.3.14. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp PS Ballasts 

Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO Lamps 

CSL For Operation Of BEF Stock in 2015

%

Baseline 2 F28T5 Lamps 1.309 69

1 2 F28T5 Lamps 1.570 16

2 2 F28T5 Lamps 1.624 16

Table 9.3.15. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp PS Ballasts 

Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO Lamps

CSL For Operation Of BEF Stock in 2015

%

Baseline 2 F54T5HO Lamps 0.688 69

1 2 F54T5HO Lamps 0.791 16

2 2 F54T5HO Lamps 0.829 16

Table 9.3.16. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps (Low Power Factor, F34T12 

Baseline) 

CSL For Operation Of BEF Stock in 2015

% 

Baseline 2 F34T12 Lamps 1.277 69

1 2 F32T8 Lamps 1.470 16

2 2 F32T8 Lamps 1.505 16

Table 9.3.17. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Two-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP and 2-Foot U-Shaped Lamps (Low Power Factor, F34T8 

Baseline) 

CSL For Operation Of BEF Stock in 2015

% 

Baseline* 2 F32T8 Lamps 1.470 69

1 2 F32T8 Lamps 1.505 31

* Baseline meets CSL1 efficacy requirements in this product category.

Table 9.3.18. Base-Case Initial Market-Share Apportionments for Four-Lamp RS and IS 

Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps (Cold Temperature/Sign Ballasts)

CSL For Operation Of BEF Stock in 2015

%

Baseline 4 F96T12HO Lamps 0.167 69

1 4 F96T12HO Lamps 0.250 31

9.3.2.4 Base-Case Forecast Results

Figure 9.3.1 through Figure 9.3.48 present the base-case ballast shipments forecasts from 

2014–2044, modeled from the 2006 installed stock (based on 1990–2005 historical shipments) 

and growth rates as explained in section 9.2.1.2. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-15

Because DOE forecasts lower future growth rates in the ballast marketplace than are 

evidenced in historical shipments, replacements of initial stock make up a relatively large share 

of the total number of ballasts shipments in DOE’s forecast. Therefore as the initial stock of 

ballasts reach the end of their lifetime and are replaced, a surge in replacement shipments 

emerges that mimics the shape of the initial growth in the industry. This pattern is repeated 

throughout the analysis period as subsequent generations of replacement ballasts also reach the 

ends of their lifetimes and are in turn replaced. This would be even more dramatic if DOE did 

not adjust for technology-induced retrofits, as explained in section 9.3.2.2. This cyclical pattern 

in shipments also reflects DOE assumptions about the distribution of ballast lifetimes (section 

9.2.1.1). Also note that shipments of T12 ballasts are near zero during the analysis period 

because they are being substituted by T8 ballasts. 

For categories of ballasts expected to experience penetration by LED lamps and other 

emerging technologies (4-foot MBP category, and the combined 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO 

categories), separate shipments forecasts are presented in this section for the existing and 

emerging technologies scenarios. For other ballast categories, only one forecast is provided 

which corresponds to the existing and emerging technologies base cases.

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044

Shipments 

Year

 

4-foot T8 MBP Base-Case Existing Tech Forecast

4-foot T12 MBP Base-Case Existing Tech Forecast

4-foot T8 MBP Base-Case Emerging Tech Forecast

4-foot T12 MBP Base-Case Emerging Tech Forecast

Figure 9.3.1. 4-Foot MBP Base-Case Forecasted Ballast Shipments (Existing and Emerging 

Technologies Scenarios)

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-16 

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044

Shipments 

Year

 

8-foot T8 RDC HO Base-Case Forecast 8-foot T12 RDC HO Base-Case Forecast

Figure 9.3.2 8-Foot RDC HO Base-Case Forecasted Ballast Shipments (Existing and 

Emerging Technologies Scenarios, Excluding Sign Ballasts) 

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044

Shipments 

Year

 

8-foot T8 Slimline Base-Case Forecast 8-foot T12 Slimline Base-Case Forecast

Figure 9.3.3. 8-Foot Slimline Base-Case Forecasted Ballast Shipments (Existing and 

Emerging Technology Scenarios) 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-17

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044

Shipments 

Year

 

4-foot T5 MiniBP SO Base-Case Existing Tech Forecast

4-foot T5 MiniBP SO Base-Case Emerging Tech Forecast

4-foot T5 MiniBP HO Base-Case Existing Tech Forecast

Figure 9.3.4. 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Base-Case Forecasted Ballast Shipments (Existing

and Emerging Technologies Scenarios)

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044

Shipments 

Year

 

4-foot T8 MBP Base-Case Forecast 4-foot T12 MBP Base-Case Forecast

Figure 9.3.5. Base-Case Forecasted Shipments for Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

in the Residential Sector (Existing and Emerging Technologies Scenarios) 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-18

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044

Shipments 

Year

 

8-foot T12 HO Base-Case Forecast

Figure 9.3.6. Base-Case Forecasted Shipments for Sign Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO 

Lamps

9.3.2.5 Base-Case Forecast by Market Segment

Figure 9.3.7 through Figure 9.3.10 present the base-case ballast shipments forecast by 

market segment (i.e., ballast failure/replacement, or new construction/renovation) for 4-foot 

MBP systems, 8-foot RDC HO systems, 8-foot slimline systems, and 4-foot T5 MiniBP systems, 

respectively. For all four of these categories, shipments of replacements dominate shipments 

related to new construction/renovation over the analysis period. As noted in section 9.3.2.4, 

shipments driven by ballast failure/replacement exhibit a cyclical pattern that is not present in 

shipments driven by new construction/renovation. Note that 8-foot slimline ballasts are only 

shipped for replacement (Figure 9.3.9). They are substituted in the new construction by T5 

ballast systems. The figures below are for the existing technologies scenario.

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-19

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

Shipments (billions) 

Year

New Construction Ballast Replacement

 

Figure 9.3.7. 4-Foot MBP Base-Case Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment

0.0000

0.0010

0.0020

0.0030

0.0040

0.0050

0.0060

Shipments (billions) 

Year

New Construction Ballast Replacement

 

Figure 9.3.8. 8-Foot RDC HO Base-Case Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-20

0.0000

0.0005

0.0010

0.0015

0.0020

0.0025

Shipments (billions) 

Year

New Construction Ballast Replacement

Figure 9.3.9. 8-Foot Slimline Base-Case Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment

0.0000

0.0050

0.0100

0.0150

0.0200

0.0250

Shipments (billions) 

Year

New Construction Ballast Replacement

 

Figure 9.3.10. 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-21

9.4 STANDARDS-CASE INPUTS

9.4.1 Shipments Scenarios

To characterize consumer behavior in the standards case, DOE considers many 

characteristics that consumers take into account when purchasing their lamp-and-ballast systems. 

Specifically, DOE regards system price, system energy consumption, and system lumen output 

as three key drivers of consumer purchases. 

DOE develops two sets of two shipments scenarios to characterize consumers that may 

weigh these factors differently. To evaluate a standards case, DOE models a standards-case

scenario and compares it to the base case. 

The first set of standards-case scenarios for ballasts includes the roll-up and shift

scenarios. The roll-up scenario represents a standards case in which all product efficiencies in the 

base case that do not meet the standard would roll up to meet the new standard level. Consumers 

in the base-case purchase ballasts above the standard level are not affected as they are assumed 

to continue to purchase the same base-case ballast or lamp-and-ballast system in the roll-up 

scenario. The roll-up scenario characterizes consumers primarily driven by the first-cost of the 

analyzed equipment. In a roll-up scenario, DOE assumes consumers will buy the first standardcompliant lamp-and-ballast system available. In contrast, in a shift scenario, DOE assumes 

consumers seek to shift to an efficiency level that keeps their purchase the same number of 

efficiency levels above the baseline as in the base case. The shift scenario models a standards 

case in which all base-case consumer purchases are affected by the standard (whether their basecase efficiency is below the standard). In this scenario, any consumer may purchase a more 

efficient ballast. As the standard level increases, market share incrementally accumulates at the 

highest CSL because it represents “max tech” (i.e., moving beyond it is impossible given 

available technology options). The shift scenario characterizes consumers primarily concerned 

with system energy consumption, and reflects an upper bound scenario. 

In either the roll-up or shift scenario consumers will attempt to buy a ballast from the 

same product class as their previously demanded system except where additional replacement 

trends are modeled (as given in Table 9.2.2). The structure of these product classes is such that at 

each CSL level lumen output is within 10 percent of the baseline system’s lumen output. 

Each of these pairs of scenarios (roll-up and shift) occurs in combination with the 

existing and emerging technologies scenarios from the base case, for a total of four standardscase scenarios.

 Many tables for the shipments analysis and the NIA (preliminary TSD chapter 10) 

present only two of the four possible shipments scenarios: existing technology/shift and 

emerging technology/roll-up. These scenarios are presented because they represent the upper and 

lower bound scenarios for the energy impacts of this rulemaking, respectively. 

For its analysis, DOE evaluated the principal events that prompt ballast purchases: 

(1) ballast failure/replacement; and (2) new construction/renovation. DOE assumed that all 

replacement ballast shipments were due to ballast failure, and all new ballast shipments were 

considered renovation or new construction. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-22

9.5 RESULTS

The following sections show the shipments forecasts for the various efficiency levels 

over time and by shipments scenario. DOE’s forecasts of the resultant stock forecasts for the 

various efficiency levels over time and by scenario are presented in preliminary TSD chapter 10. 

Figure 9.5.1 through Figure 9.5.8 present the shipments forecasts for the base case and 

standards-cases for ballasts in the existing technologies/shift and the emerging technologies/rollup scenarios scenario. As noted, these reflect the upper- and lower-bound scenarios for energy 

use. For the standards case, shipments are shown at what they are modeled as in the CSL 3 

scenario. Please note that if the line does not show up on the graph, it means that the values for 

this CSL are zeros or very close to zeros during the entire analysis period. 

Quantities of ballast shipments depend on the occurrence of the ballast purchasing events: 

ballast failure/replacement, and new construction/renovation. As discussed earlier, instead of 

using each particular ballast design’s individual lifetime to time ballast replacements, DOE uses 

the same ballast lifetime assumptions for all ballast designs within a given sector. For this 

reason, the rate of ballast replacement does not change between different shipments scenarios. 

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Shipments (billions) 

Year

4-foot T8 MBP CSL0 4-foot T8 MBP CSL1 4-foot T8 MBP CSL2

4-foot T8 MBP CSL3 4-foot T12 MBP CSL0

 

Figure 9.5.1. 4-Foot MBP Base Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts 

(Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-23

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Shipments (billions) 

Year

4-foot T8 MBP CSL0 4-foot T8 MBP CSL1 4-foot T8 MBP CSL2

4-foot T8 MBP CSL3 4-foot T12 MBP CSL0

Figure 9.5.2. 4-Foot MBP Base Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Shipments (billions) 

Year

8-foot T8 MBP CSL0 8-foot T8 MBP CSL1 8-foot T8 MBP CSL2

8-foot T8 MBP CSL3 8-foot T12 MBP CSL0 4-foot T12 MBP CSL1

 

Figure 9.5.3. 8-Foot RDC HO (including Cold Temperature/Sign) Base Case and 

Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-24

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Shipments (billions) 

Year

8-foot T8 MBP CSL0 8-foot T8 MBP CSL1 8-foot T8 MBP CSL2

8-foot T8 MBP CSL3 8-foot T12 MBP CSL0 4-foot T12 MBP CSL1

Figure 9.5.4. 8-Foot RDC HO (including Cold Temperature/Sign) Base Case and 

Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Shipments (billions) 

Year

8-foot T8 Slimline CSL0 8-foot T8 Slimline CSL1

8-foot T12 Slimline CSL0 4-foot T12 Slimline CSL1

Figure 9.5.5. 8-Foot Slimline Base Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-25

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Shipments (billions) 

Year

8-foot T8 Slimline CSL0 8-foot T8 Slimline CSL1

8-foot T12 Slimline CSL0 4-foot T12 Slimline CSL1

Figure 9.5.6. 8-Foot Slimline Base Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts 

(Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.02

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Shipments (billions) 

Year

4-foot T5 Mini-Bipin SO CSL0 4-foot T5 Mini-Bipin SO CSL1

4-foot T5 Mini-Bipin HO CSL0 4-foot T5 Mini-Bipin HO CSL1

4-foot T5 Mini-Bipin HO CSL2 4-foot T5 Mini-Bipin SO CSL2

Figure 9.5.7. 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Base Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments 

Forecasts (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-26

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.02

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Shipments (billions) 

Year

4-foot T5 Mini-Bipin SO CSL0 4-foot T5 Mini-Bipin SO CSL1

4-foot T5 Mini-Bipin HO CSL0 4-foot T5 Mini-Bipin HO CSL1

4-foot T5 Mini-Bipin HO CSL2 4-foot T5 Mini-Bipin SO CSL2

Figure 9.5.8. 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Base Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments 

Forecasts (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

Table 9.5.1 and Table 9.5.2 show the cumulative shipments impacts caused by each of 

the three standards-cases (column labels) out to 2044 for both shipments scenarios (Existing 

Technologies Shift and Emerging Technologies Roll-Up). CSL levels in the first column indicate 

the product CSL. As discussed earlier, quantities of ballast shipments in the standards-case are 

based on ballast replacement rates and shipments due to new construction/renovation. However, 

because all ballasts within a particular product class are assumed to have the same lifetime, 

ballast replacement rates in the base case and standards-case are equal. In addition, because the 

ballast lifetime never varies within a particular market sector, ballast replacement rates are equal

in the base case and standards case. The only aspects that do vary are the distribution of ballasts 

by efficiency levels. 

Note that cumulative shipments impacts are different from impacts on the stock, because 

of ballast replacements over time. Impacts on the efficiency distributions in the ballast stock are 

addressed in the preliminary TSD chapter 10. 

Table 9.5.1. Cumulative Ballast Shipments Impacts by Standard Level, 2014–2044 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

CSL Ballast Product Class Standard Shipment Impacts

CSL

1 2 3

0 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS -217,105,127 -217,105,127 -217,105,127

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 0 0 0

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS -423,063,218 -423,063,218 -423,063,218

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-27

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS -116,902,758 -116,902,758 -116,902,758

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS -318,775 -318,775 -318,775

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline -342,825 -342,825 -342,825

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T8 Baseline) -36,304,615 -36,304,615 -36,304,615

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO -538,125,468 -538,125,468 -538,125,468

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO -92,905,672 -92,905,672 -92,905,672

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential -3,437,714 -3,437,714 -3,437,714

Four-Lamp Sign Ballasts -117,590,619 -117,590,619 -117,590,619

TOTAL -1,546,096,790 -1,546,096,790 -1,546,096,790

1 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 217,105,127 217,105,127 217,105,127

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS -1,013,693,094 -1,013,693,094 -1,013,693,094

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 423,063,217 423,063,218 423,063,218

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 116,902,765 116,902,762 116,902,762

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 271,036 -47,739 -47,739

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline 342,825 342,825 342,825

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T8 Baseline) 36,304,615 36,304,615 36,304,615

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 136,570,912 -120,883,258 -120,883,258

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 202,223 -20,870,114 -20,870,114

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential -827,525,945 -830,634,822 -830,634,822

Four-Lamp Sign Ballasts 117,590,620 117,590,620 117,590,620

TOTAL -792,865,698 -1,074,819,861 -1,074,819,861

2 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 204,349,502 -216,731,594 -216,731,594

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS -1,012,509 -741,473 -741,473

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 401,554,558 659,008,720 659,008,720

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 92,703,449 113,775,784 113,775,784

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential 831,935,314 835,044,191 835,044,191

TOTAL 1,529,530,314 1,390,355,627 1,390,355,627

3 Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 809,343,605 1,230,424,702 1,230,424,702

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 1,060,249 1,107,988 1,426,763

TOTAL 810,403,853 1,231,532,689 1,231,851,465

Table 9.5.2. Cumulative Ballast Shipments Impacts by Standard Level, 2014–2044 

(Emerging Technologies, Roll-up Scenario)

CSL Ballast Product Class Standard Shipment Impacts

CSL

1 2 3

0 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS -97,938,297 -97,938,297 -97,938,297

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 0 0 0

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS -236,307,640 -236,307,640 -236,307,640

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS -52,736,006 -52,736,006 -52,736,006

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS -318,775 -318,775 -318,775

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline -342,825 -342,825 -342,825

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T8 Baseline) -36,304,615 -36,304,615 -36,304,615

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO -252,219,545 -252,219,545 -252,219,544

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO -92,905,672 -92,905,672 -92,905,672

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential -3,437,714 -3,437,714 -3,437,714

Four-Lamp Sign Ballasts -117,590,619 -117,590,619 -117,590,619

TOTAL -890,101,708 -890,101,708 -890,101,707

1 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 97,938,298 97,938,297 97,938,297

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 0 -564,983,181 -564,983,181

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 236,307,634 236,307,634 236,307,634

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 52,736,005 52,736,005 52,736,005

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 159,388 -47,739 -47,739

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline 342,825 342,825 342,825

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-28

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T8 Baseline) 36,304,615 36,304,615 36,304,615

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 252,219,540 -56,658,014 -56,658,014

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 92,905,669 -20,870,114 -20,870,114

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential 4,409,369 -830,634,822 -830,634,822

Four-Lamp Sign Ballasts 117,590,620 117,590,620 117,590,620

TOTAL 890,913,963 -931,973,874 -931,973,874

2 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 0 564,983,175 -121,014,844

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 159,388 -1,060,248 -1,060,248

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 0 308,877,552 308,877,552

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 0 113,775,784 113,775,784

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential 0 835,044,191 835,044,191

TOTAL 159,388 1,821,620,453 1,135,622,434

3 Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 0 0 685,998,015

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0 1,426,763 1,426,763

TOTAL 0 1,426,763 687,424,778

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
Revised on 4/27/2010

9-29

REFERENCES

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2009 with Projections to 2030. March 2009. 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html>.

2. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2009 with Projections to 2030. Updated Reference case. April 2009. Washington, D.C. 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/stimulus/aeostim.html>.

3. U.S. Department of Energy–Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Multi-Year 

Program Plan FY’09 to FY’14: Solid-State Lighting Research and Development. 

Washington, D.C. 

<http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/ssl_mypp2008_web.pdf>.

4. U.S. Department of Energy–Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Building 

Technologies Program: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NOPR) Technical Support 

Document (TSD): Energy Conservation Standards for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

and Incandescent Reflector Lamps. January, 2009. Washington, D.C. 

<http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/incandescent_lamps

_nopr_tsd.html> 

5. U.S. Census Bureau. Current Industrial Reports, Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts: 2005. July 2006. 

Washington, D.C. <http://www.census.gov/industry/1/mq335c055.pdf>. 

6. U.S. Census Bureau. Current Industrial Reports, Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts (individual 

annual reports for 1990-1996). MQ36C(90)-5 through MQ36C(96)-5. Washington, D.C. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25