Input and Summary

User Inputs: TSL Level = 3

Discounting future values:

Discount Rate for NPV Determination 3.0%

Discount Rate for Energy Savings 3.0% 1 2

Year to discount to 2011 TSL PC1 PC2

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

Market Impact 4 4 4

Economic Growth

Standards Level PC1 = 3

Learning Case Standards Level PC2 = 3

Policy

Standards

Rebate

Consumer Tax Credit

Manufacturer Tax Credit

Voluntary Efficiency Target

Early Replacement

Bulk Govt Purchase

PC1

Level Standby Power UEC Installed 

Price

Market 

Share Default Low High MWO only

W kWh $ %

Baseline 4.00 34.8 $223 46% $223 $227 $221 $212

1 2.00 17.4 $224 35% $224 $227 $221 $212

2 1.50 13.0 $224 19% $224 $228 $222 $213

3 1.00 8.7 $225 0% $225 $229 $223 $214

4 0.02 0.2 $230 0% $230 $234 $228 $218

PC2

Map of CSLs by TSL

Rebate

RP elasticity -0.34

Reference

Default

PC2

Level Standby Power UEC Installed 

Price

Market 

Share Default Low High MWO only

W kWh $ %

Baseline 4.50 39.1 $482 100% $482 $490 $477 $458

1 3.70 32.1 $482 0% $482 $490 $477 $458

2 2.70 23.5 $486 0% $486 $493 $481 $461

3 2.20 19.1 $496 0% $496 $504 $491 $471

4 0.04 0.3 $490 0% $490 $498 $485 $465

Base Case Efficiency Trend Base Case Efficiency Trend

Design # 0 1 2 3 4 Total Design #

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007

2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008

2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009

2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010

2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011

2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012

2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013

2014 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2014

2015 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2015

2016 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2016

2017 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2017

2018 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2018

PC1

RP elasticity -0.34

Reference

Default
2019 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2019

2020 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2020

2021 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2021

2022 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2022

2023 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2023

2024 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2024

2025 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2025

2026 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2026

2027 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2027

2028 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2028

2029 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2029

2030 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2030

2031 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2031

2032 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2032

2033 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2033

2034 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2034

2035 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2035

2036 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2036

2037 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2037

2038 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2038

2039 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2039

2040 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2040

2041 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2041

2042 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2042

2043 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2043

Policy Case Efficiency Trend Policy Case Efficiency Trend

Design # 0 1 2 3 4 Total Design #

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007

2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008

2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009

2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010

2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011

2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012

PC1

2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012

2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013

2014 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2014

2015 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2015

2016 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2016

2017 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2017

2018 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2018

2019 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2019

2020 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2020

2021 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2021

2022 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2022

2023 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2023

2024 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2024

2025 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2025

2026 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2026

2027 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2027

2028 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2028

2029 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2029

2030 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2030

2031 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2031

2032 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2032

2033 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2033

2034 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2034

2035 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2035

2036 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2036

2037 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2037
2038 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2038

2039 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2039

2040 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2040

2041 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2041

2042 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2042

2043 #NAME? ########## ########## ########## 0.0% ########## 2043

Standards Case Efficiency Trend Standards Case Efficiency Trend

Design # 0 1 2 3 4 Total Design #

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007

2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008

2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009

2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010

2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011

2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012

2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013

2014 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2014

2015 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2015

2016 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2016

2017 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2017

2018 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2018

2019 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2019

2020 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2020

2021 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2021

2022 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2022

2023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2023

2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2024

2025 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2025

2026 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2026

2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2027

2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2028

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2029

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2030

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2031

PC1

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2031

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2032

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2033

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2034

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2035

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2036

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2037

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2038

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2039

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2040

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2041

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2042

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2043

Rebate Case Efficiency Trend Rebate Case Efficiency Trend

Design # 0 1 2 3 4 Total Design #

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007

2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008

2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009

2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010

2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011

2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012

2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013

2014 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2014

PC1
2015 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2015

2016 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2016

2017 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2017

2018 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2018

2019 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2019

2020 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2020

2021 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2021

2022 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2022

2023 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2023

2024 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2024

2025 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2025

2026 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2026

2027 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2027

2028 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2028

2029 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2029

2030 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2030

2031 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2031

2032 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2032

2033 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2033

2034 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2034

2035 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2035

2036 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2036

2037 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2037

2038 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2038

2039 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2039

2040 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2040

2041 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2041

2042 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2042

2043 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2043

Consumer Tax Credit Case Efficiency Trend (good only for TSL 3) Consumer Tax Credit Case Efficie

Design # 0 1 2 3 4 Total Design #

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007

2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008

PC1

2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008

2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009

2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010

2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011

2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012

2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013

2014 45.5% 34.6% 19.2% 0.7% 0.0% 100% 2014

2015 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2015

2016 44.4% 34.6% 19.2% 1.8% 0.0% 100% 2016

2017 44.2% 34.6% 19.2% 2.0% 0.0% 100% 2017

2018 43.8% 34.6% 19.2% 2.4% 0.0% 100% 2018

2019 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2019

2020 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2020

2021 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2021

2022 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2022

2023 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2023

2024 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2024

2025 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2025

2026 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2026

2027 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2027

2028 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2028

2029 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2029

2030 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2030

2031 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2031

2032 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2032

2033 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2033
2034 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2034

2035 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2035

2036 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2036

2037 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2037

2038 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2038

2039 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2039

2040 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2040

2041 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2041

2042 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2042

2043 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2043

Manufacturer Tax Credit Case Efficiency Trend (good only for TSL 3) Manufacturer Tax Credit Case Effi

Design # 0 1 2 3 4 Total Design #

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007

2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008

2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009

2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010

2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011

2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012

2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013

2014 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2014

2015 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2015

2016 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2016

2017 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2017

2018 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2018

2019 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2019

2020 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2020

2021 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2021

2022 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2022

2023 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2023

2024 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2024

2025 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2025

2026 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2026

2027 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2027

PC1

2027 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2027

2028 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2028

2029 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2029

2030 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2030

2031 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2031

2032 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2032

2033 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2033

2034 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2034

2035 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2035

2036 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2036

2037 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2037

2038 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2038

2039 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2039

2040 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2040

2041 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2041

2042 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2042

2043 45% 35% 19% 1% 0% 100% 2043

Voluntary Efficiency Target Case Efficiency Trend (good only for TSL 3) Voluntary Efficiency Target Case E

Design # 0 1 2 3 4 Total Design #

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007

2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008

2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009

2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010

PC1
2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011

2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012

2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013

2014 31.6% 34.6% 19.2% 14.6% 0.0% 100% 2014

2015 9.5% 34.6% 19.2% 36.7% 0.0% 100% 2015

2016 2.6% 34.6% 19.2% 43.6% 0.0% 100% 2016

2017 2.6% 34.6% 19.2% 43.6% 0.0% 100% 2017

2018 2.6% 34.6% 19.2% 43.6% 0.0% 100% 2018

2019 0.0% 33.8% 19.2% 47.0% 0.0% 100% 2019

2020 0.0% 31.8% 19.2% 49.0% 0.0% 100% 2020

2021 0.0% 28.8% 19.2% 52.0% 0.0% 100% 2021

2022 0.0% 25.8% 19.2% 55.0% 0.0% 100% 2022

2023 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2023

2024 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2024

2025 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2025

2026 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2026

2027 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2027

2028 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2028

2029 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2029

2030 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2030

2031 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2031

2032 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2032

2033 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2033

2034 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2034

2035 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2035

2036 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2036

2037 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2037

2038 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2038

2039 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2039

2040 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2040

2041 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2041

2042 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2042

2043 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2043

Early Replacement Case Efficiency Trend (good only for TSL 3) Early Replacement Case Efficienc

PC1

Design # 0 1 2 3 4 Total Design #

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007

2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008

2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009

2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010

2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011

2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012

2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013

2014 36.9% 27.6% 15.3% 20.2% 0.0% 100% 2014

2015 37.8% 28.3% 15.7% 18.1% 0.0% 100% 2015

2016 38.7% 29.0% 16.1% 16.2% 0.0% 100% 2016

2017 39.8% 29.8% 16.6% 13.8% 0.0% 100% 2017

2018 41.3% 30.9% 17.2% 10.7% 0.0% 100% 2018

2019 42.4% 31.8% 17.6% 8.2% 0.0% 100% 2019

2020 43.1% 32.3% 17.9% 6.7% 0.0% 100% 2020

2021 43.4% 32.5% 18.0% 6.1% 0.0% 100% 2021

2022 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2022

2023 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2023

2024 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2024

2025 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2025

2026 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2026

2027 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2027

2028 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2028

2029 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2029

PC1
2030 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2030

2031 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2031

2032 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2032

2033 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2033

2034 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2034

2035 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2035

2036 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2036

2037 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2037

2038 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2038

2039 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2039

2040 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2040

2041 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2041

2042 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2042

2043 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2043

Bulk Govt Purchase Case Efficiency Trend (good only for TSL 3) Bulk Govt Purchase Case Efficien

Design # 0 1 2 3 4 Total Design #

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007

2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008

2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009

2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010

2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011

2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012

2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013

2014 46.1% 34.6% 19.2% 0.1% 0.0% 100% 2014

2015 46.0% 34.6% 19.2% 0.2% 0.0% 100% 2015

2016 45.9% 34.6% 19.2% 0.3% 0.0% 100% 2016

2017 45.8% 34.6% 19.2% 0.4% 0.0% 100% 2017

2018 45.7% 34.6% 19.2% 0.5% 0.0% 100% 2018

2019 45.6% 34.6% 19.2% 0.6% 0.0% 100% 2019

2020 45.5% 34.6% 19.2% 0.7% 0.0% 100% 2020

2021 45.4% 34.6% 19.2% 0.8% 0.0% 100% 2021

2022 45.3% 34.6% 19.2% 0.9% 0.0% 100% 2022

2023 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2023

PC1

2023 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2023

2024 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2024

2025 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2025

2026 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2026

2027 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2027

2028 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2028

2029 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2029

2030 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2030

2031 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2031

2032 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2032

2033 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2033

2034 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2034

2035 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2035

2036 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2036

2037 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2037

2038 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2038

2039 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2039

2040 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2040

2041 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2041

2042 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2042

2043 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2043

Base Case Weighted Average UEC and Price - PC1

Standby Hhld

Power UEC Price Learning Income

kWh/yr kWh/yr $ $
2007 2.83 2007 25 2007 $52,162 2007

2008 2.83 2008 25 2008 $52,508 2008

2009 2.83 2009 25 2009 $53,474 2009

2010 2.83 2010 25 2010 $240 1.076 $53,214 2010

2011 2.83 2011 25 2011 $236 1.056 $54,116 2011

2012 2.83 2012 25 2012 $232 1.036 $55,231 2012

2013 2.83 2013 25 2013 $228 1.018 $56,210 2013

2014 2.83 2014 25 2014 $224 1.000 $57,450 2014

2015 2.83 2015 25 2015 $220 0.983 $58,495 2015

2016 2.83 2016 25 2016 $216 0.968 $59,385 2016

2017 2.83 2017 25 2017 $213 0.953 $60,225 2017

2018 2.83 2018 25 2018 $210 0.939 $61,301 2018

2019 2.83 2019 25 2019 $207 0.926 $62,543 2019

2020 2.83 2020 25 2020 $204 0.912 $63,657 2020

2021 2.83 2021 25 2021 $201 0.899 $64,712 2021

2022 2.83 2022 25 2022 $198 0.886 $65,833 2022

2023 2.83 2023 25 2023 $195 0.873 $67,038 2023

2024 2.83 2024 25 2024 $192 0.861 $68,267 2024

2025 2.83 2025 25 2025 $190 0.849 $69,513 2025

2026 2.83 2026 25 2026 $187 0.838 $70,762 2026

2027 2.83 2027 25 2027 $185 0.828 $71,915 2027

2028 2.83 2028 25 2028 $183 0.818 $73,052 2028

2029 2.83 2029 25 2029 $181 0.808 $74,119 2029

2030 2.83 2030 25 2030 $178 0.798 $75,135 2030

2031 2.83 2031 25 2031 $176 0.789 $76,391 2031

2032 2.83 2032 25 2032 $174 0.779 $77,669 2032

2033 2.83 2033 25 2033 $172 0.770 $78,963 2033

2034 2.83 2034 25 2034 $170 0.761 $80,267 2034

2035 2.83 2035 25 2035 $168 0.753 $81,577 2035

2036 2.83 2036 25 2036 $166 0.745 $82,893 2036

2037 2.83 2037 25 2037 $165 0.737 $84,215 2037

2038 2.83 2038 25 2038 $163 0.729 $85,555 2038

2039 2.83 2039 25 2039 $161 0.721 $86,918 2039

2040 2.83 2040 25 2040 $160 0.714 $88,314 2040

2041 2.83 2041 25 2041 $158 0.706 $89,752 2041

2042 2.83 2042 25 2042 $156 0.699 $89,752 $89,752 2042

2043 2.83 2043 25 2043 $155 0.692 $89,752 2043
National Impact Summary (TSL 3, AEO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)

PC1 PC2

Results presented for CSL 3 3

Energy Saving (2014 to 2043) #NAME? #NAME?

Energy Savings discounted at 3% #NAME? #NAME?

Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost #NAME? #NAME?

Discounted Oper. Cost Saving #NAME? #NAME?

NPV #NAME? #NAME?

CO2 Emission Savings

Physical emission savings #NAME? #NAME?

Monetized emission savings

At 4.7 2007$/t 5% #NAME? #NAME?

At 21.4 2007$/t 3% #NAME? #NAME?

At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% #NAME? #NAME?

At 64.9 2007$/t 3% #NAME? #NAME?

NOx Emission Savings

Physical emission savings #NAME? #NAME?

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

At 450 2010$/t #NAME? #NAME?

At 2,537 2010$/t #NAME? #NAME?

At 4,623 2010$/t #NAME? #NAME?

NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr) #NAME? #NAME?

AEO Chained No Learning

$228 $236

$228 $236 CO2 NOx CO2 NOx CO2 NOx

$229 $237 15.84 12.88 29.46 23.09 15.84 12.88

$230 $238 22.88 18.61 42.53 33.34 22.88 18.61

$235 $243 31.48 25.60 58.40 45.78 31.48 25.60

48.46 39.42 89.46 70.12 48.46 39.42

TSL 3

Emission Savings Adjustment

Current results Pre-ajustment results NEMS results

AEO Chained No Learning

$492 $509

$492 $509

$495 $513

$506 $524

$500 $517

Base Case Efficiency Trend

0 1 2 3 4 Total

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

PC2
100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

Policy Case Efficiency Trend

0 1 2 3 4 Total

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

PC2

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

Standards Case Efficiency Trend

0 1 2 3 4 Total

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

PC2

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100%

19

Rebate Case Efficiency Trend

0 1 2 3 4 Total

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% Standards Rebate

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010 0.0%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011 0.0%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012 0.0%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013 0.0%

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2014 #NAME?

PC2
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2015 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2016 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2017 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2018 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2019 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2020 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2021 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2022 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2023 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2024 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2025 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2026 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2027 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2028 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2029 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2030 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2031 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2032 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2033 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2034 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2035 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2036 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2037 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2038 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2039 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2040 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2041 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2042 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2043 #NAME?

2044

Consumer Tax Credit Case Efficiency Trend (good only for TSL 3) 2045

0 1 2 3 4 Total

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

PC2

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

99.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 100%

98.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 100%

97.6% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%
97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

Manufacturer Tax Credit Case Efficiency Trend (good only for TSL 3)

0 1 2 3 4 Total

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

PC2

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

Voluntary Efficiency Target Case Efficiency Trend (good only for TSL 3)

0 1 2 3 4 Total

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

PC2
100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

85.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 100%

63.3% 0.0% 0.0% 36.7% 0.0% 100%

56.4% 0.0% 0.0% 43.6% 0.0% 100%

56.4% 0.0% 0.0% 43.6% 0.0% 100%

56.4% 0.0% 0.0% 43.6% 0.0% 100%

53.0% 0.0% 0.0% 47.0% 0.0% 100%

51.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.0% 0.0% 100%

48.0% 0.0% 0.0% 52.0% 0.0% 100%

45.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

Early Replacement Case Efficiency Trend (good only for TSL 3)

PC2

0 1 2 3 4 Total

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

79.8% 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 0.0% 100%

81.9% 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 0.0% 100%

83.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 0.0% 100%

86.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 100%

89.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 100%

91.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 100%

93.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 100%

93.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

PC2
100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

Bulk Govt Purchase Case Efficiency Trend (good only for TSL 3)

0 1 2 3 4 Total

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 100%

99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100%

99.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 100%

99.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 100%

99.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 100%

99.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 100%

99.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 100%

99.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 100%

99.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

PC2

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

Standards Case Weighted Average UEC and Price - PC1

TC/Income Standby

Power UEC Price Learning

kWh/yr kWh/yr $
0.000 2007 2.83 2007 25 2007

0.000 2008 2.83 2008 25 2008

0.000 2009 2.83 2009 25 2009

0.005 2010 2.83 2010 25 2010 $240 1.076

0.004 2011 2.83 2011 25 2011 $236 1.056

0.004 2012 2.83 2012 25 2012 $232 1.036

0.004 2013 2.83 2013 25 2013 $228 1.018

0.004 2014 #NAME? 2014 #NAME? 2014 #NAME? 1.000

0.004 2015 #NAME? 2015 #NAME? 2015 #NAME? 0.983

0.004 2016 #NAME? 2016 #NAME? 2016 #NAME? 0.968

0.004 2017 #NAME? 2017 #NAME? 2017 #NAME? 0.953

0.003 2018 #NAME? 2018 #NAME? 2018 #NAME? 0.939

0.003 2019 #NAME? 2019 #NAME? 2019 #NAME? 0.926

0.003 2020 #NAME? 2020 #NAME? 2020 #NAME? 0.912

0.003 2021 #NAME? 2021 #NAME? 2021 #NAME? 0.899

0.003 2022 #NAME? 2022 #NAME? 2022 #NAME? 0.886

0.003 2023 #NAME? 2023 #NAME? 2023 #NAME? 0.873

0.003 2024 #NAME? 2024 #NAME? 2024 #NAME? 0.861

0.003 2025 #NAME? 2025 #NAME? 2025 #NAME? 0.849

0.003 2026 #NAME? 2026 #NAME? 2026 #NAME? 0.838

0.003 2027 #NAME? 2027 #NAME? 2027 #NAME? 0.828

0.003 2028 #NAME? 2028 #NAME? 2028 #NAME? 0.818

0.002 2029 #NAME? 2029 #NAME? 2029 #NAME? 0.808

0.002 2030 #NAME? 2030 #NAME? 2030 #NAME? 0.798

0.002 2031 #NAME? 2031 #NAME? 2031 #NAME? 0.789

0.002 2032 #NAME? 2032 #NAME? 2032 #NAME? 0.779

0.002 2033 #NAME? 2033 #NAME? 2033 #NAME? 0.770

0.002 2034 #NAME? 2034 #NAME? 2034 #NAME? 0.761

0.002 2035 #NAME? 2035 #NAME? 2035 #NAME? 0.753

0.002 2036 #NAME? 2036 #NAME? 2036 #NAME? 0.745

0.002 2037 #NAME? 2037 #NAME? 2037 #NAME? 0.737

0.002 2038 #NAME? 2038 #NAME? 2038 #NAME? 0.729

0.002 2039 #NAME? 2039 #NAME? 2039 #NAME? 0.721

0.002 2040 #NAME? 2040 #NAME? 2040 #NAME? 0.714

0.002 2041 #NAME? 2041 #NAME? 2041 #NAME? 0.706

0.002 2042 #NAME? 2042 #NAME? 2042 #NAME? 0.699

0.002 2043 #NAME? 2043 #NAME? 2043 #NAME? 0.692
nt Rate, Learning: Default)

Total Annualized 

(30 years)

#NAME? - quad

#NAME? - quad

#NAME? #NAME? billion $

#NAME? #NAME? billion $

#NAME? #NAME? billion $

#NAME? - Mt

#NAME? #NAME? million $

#NAME? #NAME? million $

#NAME? #NAME? million $

#NAME? #NAME? million $

#NAME? - kt

#NAME? #NAME? million $

#NAME? #NAME? million $

#NAME? #NAME? million $

#NAME? #NAME? billion $

CO2 NOx

0.538 0.558

0.538 0.558

0.539 0.559

0.542 0.562

0.539 0.559

Adj Factors

20 21 22 23 24

Consumer Tax Credit Manufacturer Tax Credit Voluntary Efficiency Early Target Replacement Bulk Govt Purchase

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

% Units Meeting the Target Level (TSL3)

60%
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2010 2015 2020 2025

Percent Units Meeting Target Level


Base Case Weighted Average UEC and Price - PC2

Hhld TC/Income RP Elast Standby

Income Drop Power UEC $ kWh/yr kWh/yr
$52,162 2007 0.000 2007 2007 4.50 2007 39

$52,508 2008 0.000 2008 2008 4.50 2008 39

$53,474 2009 0.000 2009 2009 4.50 2009 39

$53,214 2010 0.005 2010 2010 4.50 2010 39

$54,116 2011 0.004 2011 2011 4.50 2011 39

$55,231 2012 0.004 2012 2012 4.50 2012 39

$56,210 2013 0.004 2013 2013 4.50 2013 39

$57,450 2014 #NAME? 2014 1.00 2014 4.50 2014 39

$58,495 2015 #NAME? 2015 0.78 2015 4.50 2015 39

$59,385 2016 #NAME? 2016 0.63 2016 4.50 2016 39

$60,225 2017 #NAME? 2017 0.54 2017 4.50 2017 39

$61,301 2018 #NAME? 2018 0.46 2018 4.50 2018 39

$62,543 2019 #NAME? 2019 0.44 2019 4.50 2019 39

$63,657 2020 #NAME? 2020 0.42 2020 4.50 2020 39

$64,712 2021 #NAME? 2021 0.39 2021 4.50 2021 39

$65,833 2022 #NAME? 2022 0.37 2022 4.50 2022 39

$67,038 2023 #NAME? 2023 0.35 2023 4.50 2023 39

$68,267 2024 #NAME? 2024 0.35 2024 4.50 2024 39

$69,513 2025 #NAME? 2025 0.35 2025 4.50 2025 39

$70,762 2026 #NAME? 2026 0.35 2026 4.50 2026 39

$71,915 2027 #NAME? 2027 0.34 2027 4.50 2027 39

$73,052 2028 #NAME? 2028 0.34 2028 4.50 2028 39

$74,119 2029 #NAME? 2029 0.34 2029 4.50 2029 39

$75,135 2030 #NAME? 2030 0.34 2030 4.50 2030 39

$76,391 2031 #NAME? 2031 0.34 2031 4.50 2031 39

$77,669 2032 #NAME? 2032 0.34 2032 4.50 2032 39

$78,963 2033 #NAME? 2033 0.33 2033 4.50 2033 39

$80,267 2034 #NAME? 2034 0.33 2034 4.50 2034 39

$81,577 2035 #NAME? 2035 0.33 2035 4.50 2035 39

$82,893 2036 #NAME? 2036 0.33 2036 4.50 2036 39

$84,215 2037 #NAME? 2037 0.33 2037 4.50 2037 39

$85,555 2038 #NAME? 2038 0.33 2038 4.50 2038 39

$86,918 2039 #NAME? 2039 0.33 2039 4.50 2039 39

$88,314 2040 #NAME? 2040 0.33 2040 4.50 2040 39

$89,752 2041 #NAME? 2041 0.33 2041 4.50 2041 39

$89,752 $89,752 2042 #NAME? 2042 0.33 2042 4.50 2042 39

$89,752 2043 #NAME? 2043 0.33 2043 4.50 2043 39



2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Rebate

Consumer Tax Credit

Manufacturer Tax Credit

Voluntary Efficiency 

Target


C and Price - PC2 Standards Case Weighted Average UEC and Price - PC2

Hhld TC/Income Standby

Price Learning Income Power $ $ kWh/yr
2007 $52,162 2007 0.000 2007 4.50 2007

2008 $52,508 2008 0.000 2008 4.50 2008

2009 $53,474 2009 0.000 2009 4.50 2009

2010 $519 1.076 $53,214 2010 0.010 2010 4.50 2010

2011 $509 1.056 $54,116 2011 0.009 2011 4.50 2011

2012 $500 1.036 $55,231 2012 0.009 2012 4.50 2012

2013 $491 1.018 $56,210 2013 0.009 2013 4.50 2013

2014 $482 1.000 $57,450 2014 0.008 2014 #NAME? 2014

2015 $474 0.983 $58,495 2015 0.008 2015 #NAME? 2015

2016 $467 0.968 $59,385 2016 0.008 2016 #NAME? 2016

2017 $460 0.953 $60,225 2017 0.008 2017 #NAME? 2017

2018 $453 0.939 $61,301 2018 0.007 2018 #NAME? 2018

2019 $446 0.926 $62,543 2019 0.007 2019 #NAME? 2019

2020 $440 0.912 $63,657 2020 0.007 2020 #NAME? 2020

2021 $433 0.899 $64,712 2021 0.007 2021 #NAME? 2021

2022 $427 0.886 $65,833 2022 0.006 2022 #NAME? 2022

2023 $421 0.873 $67,038 2023 0.006 2023 #NAME? 2023

2024 $415 0.861 $68,267 2024 0.006 2024 #NAME? 2024

2025 $410 0.849 $69,513 2025 0.006 2025 #NAME? 2025

2026 $404 0.838 $70,762 2026 0.006 2026 #NAME? 2026

2027 $399 0.828 $71,915 2027 0.006 2027 #NAME? 2027

2028 $394 0.818 $73,052 2028 0.005 2028 #NAME? 2028

2029 $390 0.808 $74,119 2029 0.005 2029 #NAME? 2029

2030 $385 0.798 $75,135 2030 0.005 2030 #NAME? 2030

2031 $380 0.789 $76,391 2031 0.005 2031 #NAME? 2031

2032 $376 0.779 $77,669 2032 0.005 2032 #NAME? 2032

2033 $371 0.770 $78,963 2033 0.005 2033 #NAME? 2033

2034 $367 0.761 $80,267 2034 0.005 2034 #NAME? 2034

2035 $363 0.753 $81,577 2035 0.004 2035 #NAME? 2035

2036 $359 0.745 $82,893 2036 0.004 2036 #NAME? 2036

2037 $355 0.737 $84,215 2037 0.004 2037 #NAME? 2037

2038 $351 0.729 $85,555 2038 0.004 2038 #NAME? 2038

2039 $348 0.721 $86,918 2039 0.004 2039 #NAME? 2039

2040 $344 0.714 $88,314 2040 0.004 2040 #NAME? 2040

2041 $341 0.706 $89,752 2041 0.004 2041 #NAME? 2041

2042 $337 0.699 $89,752 $89,752 2042 0.004 2042 #NAME? 2042

2043 $334 0.692 $89,752 2043 0.004 2043 #NAME? 2043






hted Average UEC and Price - PC2

Hhld TC/Income RP Elast

UEC Price Learning Income Drop

kWh/yr$$
39 2007 $52,162 2007 0.000 2007

39 2008 $52,508 2008 0.000 2008

39 2009 $53,474 2009 0.000 2009

39 2010 $519 1.076 $53,214 2010 0.010 2010

39 2011 $509 1.056 $54,116 2011 0.009 2011

39 2012 $500 1.036 $55,231 2012 0.009 2012

39 2013 $491 1.018 $56,210 2013 0.009 2013

#NAME? 2014 #NAME? 1.000 $57,450 2014 #NAME? 2014 1.00

#NAME? 2015 #NAME? 0.983 $58,495 2015 #NAME? 2015 0.78

#NAME? 2016 #NAME? 0.968 $59,385 2016 #NAME? 2016 0.63

#NAME? 2017 #NAME? 0.953 $60,225 2017 #NAME? 2017 0.54

#NAME? 2018 #NAME? 0.939 $61,301 2018 #NAME? 2018 0.46

#NAME? 2019 #NAME? 0.926 $62,543 2019 #NAME? 2019 0.44

#NAME? 2020 #NAME? 0.912 $63,657 2020 #NAME? 2020 0.42

#NAME? 2021 #NAME? 0.899 $64,712 2021 #NAME? 2021 0.39

#NAME? 2022 #NAME? 0.886 $65,833 2022 #NAME? 2022 0.37

#NAME? 2023 #NAME? 0.873 $67,038 2023 #NAME? 2023 0.35

#NAME? 2024 #NAME? 0.861 $68,267 2024 #NAME? 2024 0.35

#NAME? 2025 #NAME? 0.849 $69,513 2025 #NAME? 2025 0.35

#NAME? 2026 #NAME? 0.838 $70,762 2026 #NAME? 2026 0.35

#NAME? 2027 #NAME? 0.828 $71,915 2027 #NAME? 2027 0.34

#NAME? 2028 #NAME? 0.818 $73,052 2028 #NAME? 2028 0.34

#NAME? 2029 #NAME? 0.808 $74,119 2029 #NAME? 2029 0.34

#NAME? 2030 #NAME? 0.798 $75,135 2030 #NAME? 2030 0.34

#NAME? 2031 #NAME? 0.789 $76,391 2031 #NAME? 2031 0.34

#NAME? 2032 #NAME? 0.779 $77,669 2032 #NAME? 2032 0.34

#NAME? 2033 #NAME? 0.770 $78,963 2033 #NAME? 2033 0.33

#NAME? 2034 #NAME? 0.761 $80,267 2034 #NAME? 2034 0.33

#NAME? 2035 #NAME? 0.753 $81,577 2035 #NAME? 2035 0.33

#NAME? 2036 #NAME? 0.745 $82,893 2036 #NAME? 2036 0.33

#NAME? 2037 #NAME? 0.737 $84,215 2037 #NAME? 2037 0.33

#NAME? 2038 #NAME? 0.729 $85,555 2038 #NAME? 2038 0.33

#NAME? 2039 #NAME? 0.721 $86,918 2039 #NAME? 2039 0.33

#NAME? 2040 #NAME? 0.714 $88,314 2040 #NAME? 2040 0.33

#NAME? 2041 #NAME? 0.706 $89,752 2041 #NAME? 2041 0.33

#NAME? 2042 #NAME? 0.699 $89,752 $89,752 2042 #NAME? 2042 0.33

#NAME? 2043 #NAME? 0.692 $89,752 2043 #NAME? 2043 0.33
TSL 3 - Reference

Calculated on 5/5/2011 at 10:58:00 AM

NES Standards Rebate Consumer 

Tax Credit

Manufacturer 

Tax Credit

PC1 0.407 0.029 0.017 0.009

PC2 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.412 0.029 0.017 0.009

NPV (3%dr) Standards Rebate Consumer 

Tax Credit

Manufacturer 

Tax Credit

PC1 3.578 0.251 0.154 0.085

PC2 0.017 0.001 0.000 0.000

3.595 0.251 0.155 0.085

NPV (7%dr) Standards Rebate Consumer 

Tax Credit

Manufacturer 

Tax Credit

PC1 1.813 0.127 0.075 0.043

PC2 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000

1.818 0.127 0.075 0.043
Rebate PC1 PC2

Base Case mkt shr 0.0 0.0

Policy Case mkt shr #NAME? #NAME?

Increased mkt shr #NAME? #NAME?

Consumer Tax Credit PC1 PC2

Base Case mkt shr 0.0 0.0

Policy Case mkt shr 0.7 0.7

Increased mkt shr 0.7 0.7

Manufacturer Tax Credit PC1 PC2

Base Case mkt shr 0.0 0.0

Policy Case mkt shr 1.4 1.4

Increased mkt shr 1.4 1.4

Voluntary Efficiency Target PC1 PC2

Base Case mkt shr 0.0 0.0

Policy Case mkt shr 14.6 14.6

Increased mkt shr 14.6 14.6

Early Replacement PC1 PC2

Base Case mkt shr 0.0 0.0

Policy Case mkt shr 20.2 20.2

Increased mkt shr 20.2 20.2

Bulk Govt Purchase PC1 PC2

Base Case mkt shr 0.0 0.0

Policy Case mkt shr 0.1 0.1

Increased mkt shr 0.1 0.1

PC1 NES NPV (7%dr) NPV (3%dr)

Rebate 0.029 0.127 0.251

Consumer Tax Credit 0.017 0.075 0.154

Manufacturer Tax Credit 0.009 0.043 0.085

Voluntary Efficiency Target 0.311 1.378 2.796

Early Replacement 0.018 0.111 0.162

Bulk Govt Purchase 0.005 0.022 0.047

Standards 0.407 1.813 3.578

PC2 NES NPV (7%dr) NPV (3%dr)

Rebate 0.000 0.000 0.001

Consumer Tax Credit 0.000 0.000 0.000
Manufacturer Tax Credit 0.000 0.000 0.000

Voluntary Efficiency Target 0.003 0.003 0.009

Early Replacement 0.000 0.000 0.001

Bulk Govt Purchase 0.000 0.000 0.000

Standards 0.005 0.006 0.017

0.03 0.13 0.25

0.02 0.08 0.15

0.01 0.04 0.09

0.31 1.38 2.80

0.02 0.11 0.16

0.01 0.02 0.05

0.41 1.82 3.59

Rebate Consumer Tax Credit Manufacturer Tax Credit Voluntary Efficiency Target

2014 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2015 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2016 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2017 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2018 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2019 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2020 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2021 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2022 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2023 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2024 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2025 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2026 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2027 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2028 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2029 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2030 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2031 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2032 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2033 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2034 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2035 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2036 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2037 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2038 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2039 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2040 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2041 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2042 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2043 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Rebates

B/C ratio without rebate 14.7 1.6

Rebate amount 2.00 2.00

B/C ratio with rebate 1000000.0 1.8

Calc Mkt Barrier Curve No Barriers No Barriers
Voluntary 

Efficiency 

Target

Early 

Replacement

Bulk Govt 

Purchase

0.311 0.018 0.005

0.003 0.000 0.000

0.314 0.018 0.005

Voluntary 

Efficiency 

Target

Early 

Replacement

Bulk Govt 

Purchase

2.796 0.162 0.047

0.009 0.001 0.000

2.804 0.163 0.047

Voluntary 

Efficiency 

Target

Early 

Replacement

Bulk Govt 

Purchase

1.378 0.111 0.022

0.003 0.000 0.000

1.381 0.111 0.022

Early Replacement Bulk Govt Purchase

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?
Historical Shipment

Historical Shipment for PC1

millions

1972 0.30

1973 0.42

1974 0.67

1975 0.99

1976 1.65

1977 2.04 Assumptions:

1978 2.36 Total Microwave Oven Market Share for New homes in 2005 90.3%

1979 2.65 % of Early Replacement 0.0%

1980 3.41 Growth in New Housing saturation 0.0%

1981 4.18 PC2 Shipments 1%

1982 3.85

1983 5.60

1984 8.63

1985 10.28

1986 11.76

1987 11.91

1988 10.38

1989 9.78

1990 7.69

1991 6.62

1992 7.19

1993 7.24

1994 8.57

1995 8.16

1996 8.77

1997 9.14

1998 10.37

1999 11.42

2000 12.64

2001 13.45

2002 13.31

2003 14.27

2004 15.53

2005 13.86

2006 13.69

2007 11.85

2008 11.34

2009 9.63

AHAM Shipments 2003-2010

AHAM Shipments, less 5.5% for exports

Estimated Shipments






Base Case PC1

Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC1

Base Case

Market Segments Annual Shipments

Year New 

Shipment Total Stock Retiring Units

% Early

Repl.

Saturation in 

New Houses Repl. Units New Units

Survival million million million million million

1972 0.294 0.294 0.000 0.000

1973 0.416 0.710 0.000 0.000

1974 0.667 1.377 0.000 0.000

1975 0.984 2.360 0.000 0.000

1976 1.636 3.995 0.001 0.001

1977 2.017 6.007 0.005 0.005

1978 2.339 8.330 0.016 0.016

1979 2.625 10.910 0.045 0.045

1980 3.374 14.179 0.106 0.106

1981 4.135 18.098 0.216 0.216

1982 3.807 21.516 0.389 0.389

1983 5.549 26.438 0.627 0.627

1984 8.540 34.050 0.928 0.928

1985 10.178 42.937 1.291 1.291

1986 11.638 52.875 1.700 1.700

1987 11.793 62.536 2.132 2.132

1988 10.275 70.228 2.583 2.583

1989 9.680 76.822 3.087 3.087

1990 7.616 80.731 3.707 3.707

1991 6.557 82.779 4.509 4.013

1992 7.118 84.337 5.560 5.259

1993 7.168 84.615 6.890 6.366

1994 8.488 84.741 8.362 8.067

1995 8.080 83.190 9.631 9.059

1996 8.683 81.529 10.344 9.697

1997 9.051 80.210 10.370 9.767

1998 10.261 80.652 9.820 9.629 0.000

1999 11.308 82.988 8.971 0.0% 8.659 0.000

2000 12.518 87.355 8.151 0.0% 7.698 0.000

2001 13.312 93.050 7.617 0.0% 7.186 0.000

2002 13.178 98.735 7.492 0.0% 6.855 0.000

2003 14.131 105.150 7.717 0.0% 7.154 0.000

2004 15.371 112.397 8.124 0.0% 7.541 0.000

2005 13.721 117.518 8.601 0.0% 8.164 0.000

2006 13.550 121.917 9.151 0.0% 8.353 0.000

2007 11.732 123.812 9.837 0.0% 7.908 0.000

2008 11.227 124.369 10.669 0.0% 10.084 0.000

2009 9.530 122.334 11.565 0.0% 11.291 0.000

2010 13.888 123.819 12.403 0.0% 94.6% 13.022 0.866

2011 14.522 125.255 13.086 0.0% 94.6% 13.130 1.392

2012 14.909 126.594 13.571 0.0% 94.6% 13.293 1.616

2013 15.054 127.814 13.834 0.0% 94.6% 13.378 1.675

2014 15.004 129.003 13.815 0.0% 94.6% 13.311 1.693

2015 14.763 130.307 13.458 0.0% 94.6% 13.003 1.760

2016 14.228 131.675 12.860 0.0% 94.6% 12.400 1.828

2017 13.635 133.012 12.298 0.0% 94.6% 11.784 1.850

2018 13.430 134.370 12.072 0.0% 94.6% 11.555 1.875

2019 13.752 135.758 12.364 0.0% 94.6% 11.847 1.905

2020 14.463 137.110 13.111 0.0% 94.6% 12.557 1.906
2021 15.187 138.330 13.967 0.0% 94.6% 13.342 1.845

2022 15.727 139.511 14.546 0.0% 94.6% 13.929 1.798

2023 15.914 140.684 14.741 0.0% 94.6% 14.142 1.772

2024 15.850 141.862 14.672 0.0% 94.6% 14.086 1.763

2025 15.664 143.067 14.459 0.0% 94.6% 13.889 1.774

2026 15.376 144.239 14.204 0.0% 94.6% 13.610 1.767

2027 15.139 145.355 14.023 0.0% 94.6% 13.401 1.737

2028 15.079 146.405 14.029 0.0% 94.6% 13.386 1.693

2029 15.299 147.440 14.264 0.0% 94.6% 13.635 1.664

2030 15.729 148.500 14.669 0.0% 94.6% 14.066 1.664

2031 16.121 149.511 15.111 0.0% 94.6% 14.480 1.642

2032 16.408 150.463 15.456 0.0% 94.6% 14.804 1.603

2033 16.593 151.423 15.632 0.0% 94.6% 15.003 1.589

2034 16.618 152.398 15.643 0.0% 94.6% 15.027 1.591

2035 16.513 153.363 15.548 0.0% 94.6% 14.925 1.589

2036 16.387 154.322 15.428 0.0% 94.6% 14.798 1.589

2037 16.322 155.281 15.363 0.0% 94.6% 14.733 1.589

2038 16.367 156.239 15.408 0.0% 94.6% 14.778 1.589

2039 16.535 157.198 15.576 0.0% 94.6% 14.946 1.589

2040 16.788 158.157 15.829 0.0% 94.6% 15.199 1.589

2041 17.056 159.115 16.098 0.0% 94.6% 15.468 1.589

2042 17.274 160.074 16.316 0.0% 94.6% 15.685 1.589

2043 17.406 161.033 16.447 0.0% 94.6% 15.817 1.589

2044 17.452 161.991 16.493 0.0% 94.6% 15.863 1.589

2045 17.440 162.950 16.482 0.0% 94.6% 15.851 1.589

2046 17.417 163.909 16.459 0.0% 94.6% 15.829 1.589

2047 17.430 164.867 16.471 0.0% 94.6% 15.841 1.589

2048 17.506 165.826 16.547 0.0% 94.6% 15.917 1.589

2049 17.647 166.785 16.688 0.0% 94.6% 16.058 1.589

2050 17.831 167.744 16.872 0.0% 94.6% 16.242 1.589

2051 18.022 168.702 17.063 0.0% 94.6% 16.433 1.589

2052 18.184 169.661 17.226 0.0% 94.6% 16.595 1.589

2053 18.299 170.620 17.340 0.0% 94.6% 16.710 1.589

2054 18.366 171.578 17.407 0.0% 94.6% 16.777 1.589

2053 18.299 170.620 17.340 0.0% 94.6% 16.710 1.589

2054 18.366 171.578 17.407 0.0% 94.6% 16.777 1.589

2055 18.403 172.537 17.444 0.0% 94.6% 16.814 1.589

2056 18.436 173.496 17.477 0.0% 94.6% 16.847 1.589

2057 18.490 174.454 17.531 0.0% 94.6% 16.901 1.589

2058 18.579 175.413 17.621 0.0% 94.6% 16.990 1.589

2059 18.704 176.372 17.745 0.0% 94.6% 17.115 1.589

2060 18.851 177.331 17.892 0.0% 94.6% 17.262 1.589

2061 18.999 178.289 18.041 0.0% 94.6% 17.411 1.589

2062 19.132 179.248 18.173 0.0% 94.6% 17.543 1.589

2063 19.238 180.207 18.279 0.0% 94.6% 17.649 1.589

2064 19.318 181.165 18.360 0.0% 94.6% 17.729 1.589

2065 19.383 182.124 18.424 0.0% 94.6% 17.794 1.589

2066 19.446 183.083 18.488 0.0% 94.6% 17.857 1.589

2067 19.522 184.041 18.563 0.0% 94.6% 17.933 1.589

2068 19.618 185.000 18.659 0.0% 94.6% 18.029 1.589

2069 19.732 185.959 18.773 0.0% 94.6% 18.143 1.589

2070 19.858 186.918 18.899 0.0% 94.6% 18.269 1.589

nnual Shipments Standby Total Energy (site) Equipment Cost Oper Cost

Total 

Shipment Saturation Efficiency Elec Elec per Unit Total Fuel

million EF kWh/yr quad $ billion $ billion $

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6 5

10

15

20

25

Millions

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

7.908 110.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.334

10.084 109.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.352

11.291 107.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0103 $0 0.000 0.336

13.888 107.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0104 $240 3.340 0.325

14.522 107.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0105 $236 3.428 0.318

14.909 107.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0106 $232 3.454 0.334

15.054 107.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0107 $228 3.425 0.341

15.004 107.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0108 $224 3.355 0.345

14.763 107.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0109 $220 3.245 0.348

14.228 107.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0110 $216 3.078 0.354

13.635 107.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0111 $213 2.906 0.359

13.430 107.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0113 $210 2.820 0.363

13.752 106.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0114 $207 2.846 0.365

14.463 106.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0115 $204 2.950 0.371

0

5

1980
15.187 106.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0116 $201 3.052 0.376

15.727 106.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0117 $198 3.114 0.380

15.914 106.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0118 $195 3.106 0.385

15.850 105.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0119 $192 3.051 0.389

15.664 105.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0120 $190 2.974 0.392

15.376 105.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0121 $187 2.882 0.397

15.139 105.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0122 $185 2.802 0.402

15.079 105.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0123 $183 2.757 0.407

15.299 105.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0124 $181 2.764 0.415

15.729 105.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0124 $178 2.807 0.422

16.121 104.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0125 $176 2.843 0.429

16.408 104.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0126 $174 2.859 0.436

16.593 104.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0127 $172 2.857 0.440

16.618 104.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0128 $170 2.829 0.446

16.513 104.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0129 $168 2.780 0.452

16.387 104.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0129 $166 2.728 0.457

16.322 104.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0130 $165 2.688 0.463

16.367 104.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0131 $163 2.667 0.468

16.535 104.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0132 $161 2.666 0.474

16.788 104.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0133 $160 2.679 0.480

17.056 103.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0133 $158 2.693 0.485

17.274 103.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0134 $156 2.700 0.491

17.406 103.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0135 $155 2.693 0.497

17.452 104.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0136 $155 2.700 0.503

17.440 104.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0137 $155 2.698 0.509

17.417 105.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0137 $155 2.695 0.515

17.430 106.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0138 $155 2.697 0.521

17.506 106.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0139 $155 2.708 0.527

17.647 107.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0140 $155 2.730 0.533

17.831 108.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0141 $155 2.759 0.539

18.022 108.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0141 $155 2.788 0.545

18.184 109.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0142 $155 2.813 0.551

18.299 109.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0143 $155 2.831 0.558

18.366 110.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0144 $155 2.842 0.564

18.299 109.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0143 $155 2.831 0.558

18.366 110.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0144 $155 2.842 0.564

18.403 111.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0145 $155 2.847 0.570

18.436 111.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0145 $155 2.852 0.577

18.490 112.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0146 $155 2.861 0.583

18.579 113.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0147 $155 2.875 0.590

18.704 113.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0148 $155 2.894 0.597

18.851 114.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0149 $155 2.917 0.603

18.999 114.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0149 $155 2.940 0.610

19.132 115.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0150 $155 2.960 0.617

19.238 116.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0151 $155 2.976 0.624

19.318 116.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0152 $155 2.989 0.631

19.383 117.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0153 $155 2.999 0.638

19.446 117.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0153 $155 3.009 0.645

19.522 118.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0154 $155 3.020 0.652

19.618 119.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0155 $155 3.035 0.659

19.732 119.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0156 $155 3.053 0.666

19.858 120.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0157 $155 3.072 0.673

Shipment - Historical and Projected

Series1

Series2

AHAM Saturations

Year Million Percent

1982 21.4 25.6

1990 77.2 82.7

2001 94.6 90.7

2005 97.2 89.3

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


Policy Case PC1

Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC1

Standards Case

Market Segments Annual Shipments

Year New 

Shipment Total Stock Retiring Units

% Early

Repl.

Saturation in 

New Houses MS Impact Repl. Units New Units

Survival million million % million million

1972 0.294

1973 0.416

1974 0.667

1975 0.984

1976 1.636

1977 2.017

1978 2.339

1979 2.625

1980 3.374 14.179

1981 4.135 18.098

1982 3.807 21.516

1983 5.549 26.438

1984 8.540 34.050

1985 10.178 42.937

1986 11.638 52.875 0.000

1987 11.793 62.536 2.132

1988 10.275 70.228 2.583

1989 9.680 76.822 3.087

1990 7.616 80.731 3.707 0.0% 0.000

1991 6.557 82.779 4.509 0.0% 0.000

1992 7.118 84.337 5.560 0.0% 0.000

1993 7.168 84.615 6.890 0.0% 0.000

1994 8.488 84.741 8.362 0.0% 0.000

1995 8.080 83.190 9.631 0.0% 0.000

1996 8.683 81.529 10.344 0.0% 0.000

1997 9.051 80.210 10.370 0.0% 0.000

1998 10.261 80.652 9.820 0.0% 0.000

1999 11.308 82.988 8.971 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2000 12.518 87.355 8.151 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2001 13.312 93.050 7.617 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2002 13.178 98.735 7.492 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2003 14.131 105.150 7.717 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2004 15.371 112.397 8.124 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2005 13.721 117.518 8.601 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2006 13.550 121.917 9.151 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2007 11.732 123.812 9.837 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.908 0.000

2008 11.227 124.369 10.669 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.084 0.000

2009 9.530 122.334 11.565 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.291 0.000

2010 13.888 123.819 12.403 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.022 0.866

2011 14.522 125.255 13.086 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.130 1.392

2012 14.909 126.594 13.571 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.293 1.616

2013 15.054 127.814 13.834 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.378 1.675

2014 #NAME? #NAME? 13.815 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2015 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2016 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2017 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2018 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2019 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
2020 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2021 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2022 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2023 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2024 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2025 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2026 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2027 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2028 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2029 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2030 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2031 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2032 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2033 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2034 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2035 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2036 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2037 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2038 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2039 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2040 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2041 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2042 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2043 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2044 0.000 #NAME?

2045 0.000 #NAME?

2046 0.000 #NAME?

2047 0.000 #NAME?

2048 0.000 #NAME?

2049 0.000 #NAME?

2050 0.000 #NAME?

2051 0.000 #NAME?

2052 0.000 #NAME?

2053 0.000 #NAME?

2052 0.000 #NAME?

2053 0.000 #NAME?

2054 0.000 #NAME?

2055 0.000 #NAME?

2056 0.000 #NAME?

2057 0.000 #NAME?

2058 0.000 #NAME?

2059 0.000 #NAME?

2060 0.000 #NAME?

2061 0.000 #NAME?

2062 0.000 #NAME?

2063 0.000 #NAME?

2064 0.000 #NAME?

2065 0.000 #NAME?

2066 0.000 #NAME?

2067 0.000 #NAME?

2068 0.000 #NAME?

2069 0.000 #NAME?

2070 0.000 #NAME?

UEC CumulativeTotal Energy (site) Incr. Equip. Cost Oper Cost delta UEC

Total 

Shipment Saturation Elec Shipment Impact

Shipment 

Impact Elec per Unit Total Fuel Elec

million kWh/yr million quad $ billion $ billion $ kWh/yr

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6 0.000

24.6 0.000 0.000

24.6 0.000 0.000

24.6 0.000 0.000

0.000 73.7% 24.6 0.000 0.000

0.000 75.5% 24.6 0.000 0.000

0.000 77.3% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 79.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 81.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 83.1% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 85.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 87.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 89.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 91.5% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 93.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 96.1% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 98.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 100.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 103.3% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 105.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 108.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

7.908 110.1% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.334 0.00

10.084 109.7% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.352 0.00

11.291 107.3% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0103 $0 0.000 0.336 0.00

13.888 107.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.325 0.00

14.522 107.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0105 $0 0.000 0.318 0.00

14.909 107.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0106 $0 0.000 0.334 0.00

15.054 107.7% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0107 $0 0.000 0.341 0.00

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########
#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 17.452 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 17.440 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 17.417 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 17.430 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 17.506 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 17.647 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 17.831 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 18.022 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 18.184 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 18.299 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 18.184 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 18.299 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 18.366 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 18.403 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 18.436 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 18.490 195.844 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 18.579 196.875 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 18.704 197.953 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 18.851 199.075 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 18.999 200.220 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 19.132 201.361 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 19.238 202.478 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 19.318 203.558 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 19.383 204.607 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 19.446 205.640 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 19.522 206.676 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 19.618 207.731 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 19.732 208.812 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 19.858 209.917 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

Energy Saving

Energy

Savings

Oper. Cost 

Saving

Discount 

Factor (Nonmonetized)

Discounted 

Energy

Savings

Discount 

Factor 

(Monetary)

Incr. Equip. 

Cost

Oper. Cost 

Saving

quad billion $ quad billion $ billion $

Discounted Values

8

10

12

14

16

18

Millions

Shipment - Historical and Projected

0.000 0.000 1.126 0.000 1.126 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.093 0.000 1.093 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.061 0.000 1.061 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.030 0.000 1.030 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.000

#NAME? #NAME? 0.915 #NAME? 0.915 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.888 #NAME? 0.888 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.863 #NAME? 0.863 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.837 #NAME? 0.837 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.813 #NAME? 0.813 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.789 #NAME? 0.789 #NAME? #NAME?

0

2

4

6

8

10

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Millions

Base Case

Standards Case
#NAME? #NAME? 0.766 #NAME? 0.766 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.744 #NAME? 0.744 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.722 #NAME? 0.722 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.701 #NAME? 0.701 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.681 #NAME? 0.681 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.661 #NAME? 0.661 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.642 #NAME? 0.642 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.623 #NAME? 0.623 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.605 #NAME? 0.605 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.587 #NAME? 0.587 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.570 #NAME? 0.570 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.554 #NAME? 0.554 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.538 #NAME? 0.538 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.522 #NAME? 0.522 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.507 #NAME? 0.507 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.492 #NAME? 0.492 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.478 #NAME? 0.478 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.464 #NAME? 0.464 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.450 #NAME? 0.450 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.437 #NAME? 0.437 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.424 #NAME? 0.424 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.412 #NAME? 0.412 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.400 #NAME? 0.400 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.388 #NAME? 0.388 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.377 #NAME? 0.377 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.366 #NAME? 0.366 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.355 #NAME? 0.355 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.345 #NAME? 0.345 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.335 #NAME? 0.335 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.325 #NAME? 0.325 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.316 #NAME? 0.316 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.307 #NAME? 0.307 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.281 #NAME? 0.281 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.272 #NAME? 0.272 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.264 #NAME? 0.264 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.257 #NAME? 0.257 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.249 #NAME? 0.249 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.242 #NAME? 0.242 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.235 #NAME? 0.235 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.228 #NAME? 0.228 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.221 #NAME? 0.221 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.215 #NAME? 0.215 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.209 #NAME? 0.209 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.203 #NAME? 0.203 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.197 #NAME? 0.197 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.191 #NAME? 0.191 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.185 #NAME? 0.185 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.180 #NAME? 0.180 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.175 #NAME? 0.175 #NAME? #NAME?

Power Generation 5.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 3.0%

Year CO2 Marg. 

Emiss. rate

NOx Marg. 

Emiss. rate

CO2 Price 

$/ton (1)

CO2 Price 

$/ton (2)

CO2 Price 

$/ton (3)

CO2 Price 

$/ton (4)

CO2 

reduction

CO2 Value 

(1)

CO2 Value 

(2)

Mt/quad kt/quad 2007 $ 2007 $ 2007 $ 2007 $ Mt 

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

million 2010$

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 141.73 111.09 $4.70 $21.40 $35.10 $64.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2011 141.73 111.09 $4.90 $21.90 $35.70 $66.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2012 141.73 111.09 $5.10 $22.40 $36.40 $68.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2013 141.73 111.09 $5.30 $22.80 $37.00 $69.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

2014 141.73 111.09 $5.50 $23.30 $37.70 $71.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2015 141.73 111.09 $5.70 $23.80 $38.40 $72.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2016 141.73 111.09 $5.90 $24.30 $39.00 $74.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2017 141.73 111.09 $6.10 $24.80 $39.70 $76.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2018 141.73 111.09 $6.30 $25.30 $40.40 $77.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2019 141.73 111.09 $6.50 $25.80 $41.00 $79.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
2020 141.73 111.09 $6.80 $26.30 $41.70 $80.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2021 141.73 111.09 $7.10 $27.00 $42.50 $82.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2022 141.73 111.09 $7.40 $27.60 $43.40 $84.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2023 141.73 111.09 $7.70 $28.30 $44.20 $86.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2024 141.73 111.09 $7.90 $28.90 $45.00 $88.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2025 141.73 111.09 $8.20 $29.60 $45.90 $90.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2026 141.73 111.09 $8.50 $30.20 $46.70 $92.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2027 141.73 111.09 $8.80 $30.90 $47.50 $94.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2028 141.73 111.09 $9.10 $31.50 $48.40 $96.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2029 141.73 111.09 $9.40 $32.10 $49.20 $98.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2030 141.73 111.09 $9.70 $32.80 $50.00 $100.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2031 141.73 111.09 $10.00 $33.40 $50.90 $102.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2032 141.73 111.09 $10.30 $34.10 $51.70 $103.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2033 141.73 111.09 $10.60 $34.70 $52.50 $105.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2034 141.73 111.09 $10.90 $35.40 $53.40 $107.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2035 141.73 111.09 $11.20 $36.00 $54.20 $109.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2036 141.73 111.09 $11.50 $36.70 $55.00 $111.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2037 141.73 111.09 $11.80 $37.30 $55.90 $113.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2038 141.73 111.09 $12.10 $37.90 $56.70 $115.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2039 141.73 111.09 $12.40 $38.60 $57.50 $117.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2040 141.73 111.09 $12.70 $39.20 $58.40 $119.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2041 141.73 111.09 $13.00 $39.80 $59.00 $121.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2042 141.73 111.09 $13.30 $40.40 $59.70 $122.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2043 141.73 111.09 $13.60 $40.90 $60.40 $124.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2044 141.73 111.09 $13.90 $41.50 $61.00 $126.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2045 141.73 111.09 $14.20 $42.10 $61.70 $127.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2046 141.73 111.09 $14.50 $42.60 $62.40 $129.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2047 141.73 111.09 $14.80 $43.20 $63.00 $131.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2048 141.73 111.09 $15.10 $43.80 $63.70 $132.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2049 141.73 111.09 $15.40 $44.40 $64.40 $134.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2050 141.73 111.09 $15.70 $44.90 $65.00 $136.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2051 141.73 111.09 $16.00 $45.50 $65.70 $137.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2052 141.73 111.09 $16.30 $46.10 $66.40 $139.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2053 141.73 111.09 $16.70 $46.70 $67.10 $141.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2054 141.73 111.09 $17.00 $47.30 $67.70 $143.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2055 141.73 111.09 $17.30 $47.90 $68.40 $145.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2056 141.73 111.09 $17.70 $48.50 $69.10 $147.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2057 141.73 111.09 $18.00 $49.10 $69.90 $148.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2058 141.73 111.09 $18.40 $49.80 $70.60 $150.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2059 141.73 111.09 $18.80 $50.40 $71.30 $152.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2060 141.73 111.09 $19.10 $51.00 $72.00 $154.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2061 141.73 111.09 $19.50 $51.70 $72.80 $156.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2062 141.73 111.09 $19.90 $52.40 $73.50 $158.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2063 141.73 111.09 $20.30 $53.00 $74.30 $160.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2064 141.73 111.09 $20.70 $53.70 $75.00 $162.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2065 141.73 111.09 $21.10 $54.40 $75.80 $164.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2066 141.73 111.09 $21.60 $55.10 $76.60 $167.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2067 141.73 111.09 $22.00 $55.80 $77.40 $169.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2068 141.73 111.09 $22.40 $56.50 $78.20 $171.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2069 141.73 111.09 $22.90 $57.30 $79.00 $173.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2070 141.73 111.09 $23.30 $58.00 $79.80 $175.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2071 141.73 111.09 $23.80 $58.70 $80.60 $177.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2072 141.73 111.09 $24.30 $59.50 $81.50 $180.20 0.00 0.00 0.00

2073 141.73 111.09 $24.80 $60.30 $82.30 $182.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2074 141.73 111.09 $25.30 $61.00 $83.10 $184.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2075 141.73 111.09 $25.80 $61.80 $84.00 $187.20 0.00 0.00 0.00

2076 141.73 111.09 $26.30 $62.60 $84.90 $189.60 0.00 0.00 0.00
2077 141.73 111.09 $26.80 $63.40 $85.70 $192.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2078 141.73 111.09 $27.40 $64.20 $86.60 $194.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2079 141.73 111.09 $27.90 $65.10 $87.50 $197.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2080 141.73 111.09 $28.50 $65.90 $88.40 $199.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2081 141.73 111.09 $29.00 $66.70 $89.30 $202.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2082 141.73 111.09 $29.60 $67.60 $90.20 $204.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2083 141.73 111.09 $30.20 $68.50 $91.20 $207.30 0.00 0.00 0.00

2084 141.73 111.09 $30.80 $69.30 $92.10 $209.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2085 141.73 111.09 $31.40 $70.20 $93.10 $212.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

2086 141.73 111.09 $32.10 $71.10 $94.00 $215.40 0.00 0.00 0.00

2087 141.73 111.09 $32.70 $72.10 $95.00 $218.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2088 141.73 111.09 $33.30 $73.00 $96.00 $220.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2089 141.73 111.09 $34.00 $73.90 $96.90 $223.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2090 141.73 111.09 $34.70 $74.90 $97.90 $226.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

2091 141.73 111.09 $35.40 $75.80 $99.00 $229.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2092 141.73 111.09 $36.10 $76.80 $100.00 $232.40 0.00 0.00 0.00

2093 141.73 111.09 $36.80 $77.80 $101.00 $235.40 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0%

CO2 Value 

(3)

CO2 Value 

(4)

NOx Price 

$/kt (1)

NOx Price 

$/kt (2)

NOx Price 

$/kt (3)

NOx Price 

$/kt (4)

NOx Price 

$/kt (5)

NOx Price 

$/kt (6)

NOx 

reduction

NOx Value 

(1)

million 2010$ million 2010$ kt 

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00
3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

NOx Value 

(2)

NOx Value 

(3)

NOx Value 

(4)

NOx Value 

(5)

NOx Value 

(6)

million 2010$

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Base Case PC2

Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC2

Base Case

Market Segments Annual Shipments

Year New 

Shipment Total Stock Retiring Units

% Early

Repl.

Saturation in 

New Houses Repl. Units New Units

Survival million million million million million

1972 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.000

1973 0.004 0.007 0.000 0.000

1974 0.007 0.014 0.000 0.000

1975 0.010 0.024 0.000 0.000

1976 0.017 0.040 0.000 0.000

1977 0.020 0.061 0.000 0.000

1978 0.024 0.084 0.000 0.000

1979 0.027 0.110 0.000 0.000

1980 0.034 0.143 0.001 0.001

1981 0.042 0.183 0.002 0.002

1982 0.038 0.217 0.004 0.004

1983 0.056 0.267 0.006 0.006

1984 0.086 0.344 0.009 0.009

1985 0.103 0.434 0.013 0.013

1986 0.118 0.534 0.017 0.017

1987 0.119 0.632 0.022 0.022

1988 0.104 0.709 0.026 0.026

1989 0.098 0.776 0.031 0.031

1990 0.077 0.815 0.037 0.037

1991 0.066 0.836 0.046 0.041

1992 0.072 0.852 0.056 0.053

1993 0.072 0.855 0.070 0.064

1994 0.086 0.856 0.084 0.081

1995 0.082 0.840 0.097 0.092

1996 0.088 0.824 0.104 0.098

1997 0.091 0.810 0.105 0.099

1998 0.104 0.815 0.099 0.097 0.000

1999 0.114 0.838 0.091 0.0% 0.087 0.000

2000 0.126 0.882 0.082 0.0% 0.078 0.000

2001 0.134 0.940 0.077 0.0% 0.073 0.000

2002 0.133 0.997 0.076 0.0% 0.069 0.000

2003 0.143 1.062 0.078 0.0% 0.072 0.000

2004 0.155 1.135 0.082 0.0% 0.076 0.000

2005 0.139 1.187 0.087 0.0% 0.082 0.000

2006 0.137 1.231 0.092 0.0% 0.084 0.000

2007 0.119 1.251 0.099 0.0% 0.080 0.000

2008 0.113 1.256 0.108 0.0% 0.102 0.000

2009 0.096 1.236 0.117 0.0% 0.114 0.000

2010 0.140 1.251 0.125 0.0% 94.6% 0.132 0.009

2011 0.147 1.265 0.132 0.0% 94.6% 0.133 0.014

2012 0.151 1.279 0.137 0.0% 94.6% 0.134 0.016

2013 0.152 1.291 0.140 0.0% 94.6% 0.135 0.017

2014 0.152 1.303 0.140 0.0% 94.6% 0.134 0.017

2015 0.149 1.316 0.136 0.0% 94.6% 0.131 0.018

2016 0.144 1.330 0.130 0.0% 94.6% 0.125 0.018

2017 0.138 1.344 0.124 0.0% 94.6% 0.119 0.019

2018 0.136 1.357 0.122 0.0% 94.6% 0.117 0.019

2019 0.139 1.371 0.125 0.0% 94.6% 0.120 0.019

2020 0.146 1.385 0.132 0.0% 94.6% 0.127 0.019
2021 0.153 1.397 0.141 0.0% 94.6% 0.135 0.019

2022 0.159 1.409 0.147 0.0% 94.6% 0.141 0.018

2023 0.161 1.421 0.149 0.0% 94.6% 0.143 0.018

2024 0.160 1.433 0.148 0.0% 94.6% 0.142 0.018

2025 0.158 1.445 0.146 0.0% 94.6% 0.140 0.018

2026 0.155 1.457 0.143 0.0% 94.6% 0.137 0.018

2027 0.153 1.468 0.142 0.0% 94.6% 0.135 0.018

2028 0.152 1.479 0.142 0.0% 94.6% 0.135 0.017

2029 0.155 1.489 0.144 0.0% 94.6% 0.138 0.017

2030 0.159 1.500 0.148 0.0% 94.6% 0.142 0.017

2031 0.163 1.510 0.153 0.0% 94.6% 0.146 0.017

2032 0.166 1.520 0.156 0.0% 94.6% 0.150 0.016

2033 0.168 1.530 0.158 0.0% 94.6% 0.152 0.016

2034 0.168 1.539 0.158 0.0% 94.6% 0.152 0.016

2035 0.167 1.549 0.157 0.0% 94.6% 0.151 0.016

2036 0.166 1.559 0.156 0.0% 94.6% 0.149 0.016

2037 0.165 1.568 0.155 0.0% 94.6% 0.149 0.016

2038 0.165 1.578 0.156 0.0% 94.6% 0.149 0.016

2039 0.167 1.588 0.157 0.0% 94.6% 0.151 0.016

2040 0.170 1.598 0.160 0.0% 94.6% 0.154 0.016

2041 0.172 1.607 0.163 0.0% 94.6% 0.156 0.016

2042 0.174 1.617 0.165 0.0% 94.6% 0.158 0.016

2043 0.176 1.627 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016

2044 0.176 1.636 0.167 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016

2045 0.176 1.646 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016

2046 0.176 1.656 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016

2047 0.176 1.665 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016

2048 0.177 1.675 0.167 0.0% 94.6% 0.161 0.016

2049 0.178 1.685 0.169 0.0% 94.6% 0.162 0.016

2050 0.180 1.694 0.170 0.0% 94.6% 0.164 0.016

2051 0.182 1.704 0.172 0.0% 94.6% 0.166 0.016

2052 0.184 1.714 0.174 0.0% 94.6% 0.168 0.016

2053 0.185 1.723 0.175 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016

2054 0.186 1.733 0.176 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016

2053 0.185 1.723 0.175 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016

2054 0.186 1.733 0.176 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016

2055 0.186 1.743 0.176 0.0% 94.6% 0.170 0.016

2056 0.186 1.752 0.177 0.0% 94.6% 0.170 0.016

2057 0.187 1.762 0.177 0.0% 94.6% 0.171 0.016

2058 0.188 1.772 0.178 0.0% 94.6% 0.172 0.016

2059 0.189 1.782 0.179 0.0% 94.6% 0.173 0.016

2060 0.190 1.791 0.181 0.0% 94.6% 0.174 0.016

2061 0.192 1.801 0.182 0.0% 94.6% 0.176 0.016

2062 0.193 1.811 0.184 0.0% 94.6% 0.177 0.016

2063 0.194 1.820 0.185 0.0% 94.6% 0.178 0.016

2064 0.195 1.830 0.185 0.0% 94.6% 0.179 0.016

2065 0.196 1.840 0.186 0.0% 94.6% 0.180 0.016

2066 0.196 1.849 0.187 0.0% 94.6% 0.180 0.016

2067 0.197 1.859 0.188 0.0% 94.6% 0.181 0.016

2068 0.198 1.869 0.188 0.0% 94.6% 0.182 0.016

2069 0.199 1.878 0.190 0.0% 94.6% 0.183 0.016

2070 0.201 1.888 0.191 0.0% 94.6% 0.185 0.016

nnual Shipments Standby Total Energy (site) Equipment Cost Oper Cost

Total 

Shipment Saturation Efficiency Elec Elec per Unit Total Fuel

million EF kWh/yr quad $ billion $ billion $

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1 0

0

0

0

0

Millions

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

0.080 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005

0.102 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.006

0.114 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005

0.140 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $519 0.073 0.005

0.147 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $509 0.075 0.005

0.151 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $500 0.075 0.005

0.152 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $491 0.075 0.005

0.152 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $482 0.073 0.006

0.149 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $474 0.071 0.006

0.144 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $467 0.067 0.006

0.138 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $460 0.063 0.006

0.136 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $453 0.061 0.006

0.139 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $446 0.062 0.006

0.146 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $440 0.064 0.006

0

0

1980
0.153 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $433 0.066 0.006

0.159 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $427 0.068 0.006

0.161 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $421 0.068 0.006

0.160 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $415 0.066 0.006

0.158 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $410 0.065 0.006

0.155 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $404 0.063 0.006

0.153 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $399 0.061 0.006

0.152 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $394 0.060 0.007

0.155 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $390 0.060 0.007

0.159 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $385 0.061 0.007

0.163 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $380 0.062 0.007

0.166 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $376 0.062 0.007

0.168 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $371 0.062 0.007

0.168 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $367 0.062 0.007

0.167 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $363 0.061 0.007

0.166 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $359 0.059 0.007

0.165 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $355 0.059 0.007

0.165 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $351 0.058 0.008

0.167 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $348 0.058 0.008

0.170 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $344 0.058 0.008

0.172 1.0% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $341 0.059 0.008

0.174 1.0% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $337 0.059 0.008

0.176 1.0% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008

0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008

0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008

0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008

0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008

0.177 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008

0.178 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.009

0.180 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.060 0.009

0.182 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.061 0.009

0.184 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.061 0.009

0.185 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.185 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.187 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.188 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.063 0.009

0.189 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.063 0.010

0.190 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.064 0.010

0.192 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.064 0.010

0.193 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.064 0.010

0.194 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.065 0.010

0.195 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.065 0.010

0.196 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.065 0.010

0.196 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.066 0.010

0.197 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.066 0.010

0.198 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.066 0.011

0.199 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0003 $334 0.067 0.011

0.201 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0003 $334 0.067 0.011

Shipment - Historical and Projected

Series1

Series2

AHAM Saturations

Year Million Percent

1982 21.4 25.6

1990 77.2 82.7

2001 94.6 90.7

2005 97.2 89.3

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


Policy Case PC2

Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC2

Standards Case

Market Segments Annual Shipments

Year New 

Shipment Total Stock Retiring Units

% Early

Repl.

Saturation in 

New Houses MS Impact Repl. Units New Units

Survival million million % million million

1972 0.003

1973 0.004

1974 0.007

1975 0.010

1976 0.017

1977 0.020

1978 0.024

1979 0.027

1980 0.034 0.143

1981 0.042 0.183

1982 0.038 0.217

1983 0.056 0.267

1984 0.086 0.344

1985 0.103 0.434

1986 0.118 0.534 0.000

1987 0.119 0.632 0.022

1988 0.104 0.709 0.026

1989 0.098 0.776 0.031

1990 0.077 0.815 0.037 0.0% 0.000

1991 0.066 0.836 0.046 0.0% 0.000

1992 0.072 0.852 0.056 0.0% 0.000

1993 0.072 0.855 0.070 0.0% 0.000

1994 0.086 0.856 0.084 0.0% 0.000

1995 0.082 0.840 0.097 0.0% 0.000

1996 0.088 0.824 0.104 0.0% 0.000

1997 0.091 0.810 0.105 0.0% 0.000

1998 0.104 0.815 0.099 0.0% 0.000

1999 0.114 0.838 0.091 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2000 0.126 0.882 0.082 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2001 0.134 0.940 0.077 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2002 0.133 0.997 0.076 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2003 0.143 1.062 0.078 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2004 0.155 1.135 0.082 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2005 0.139 1.187 0.087 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2006 0.137 1.231 0.092 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2007 0.119 1.251 0.099 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.080 0.000

2008 0.113 1.256 0.108 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.102 0.000

2009 0.096 1.236 0.117 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.114 0.000

2010 0.140 1.251 0.125 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.132 0.009

2011 0.147 1.265 0.132 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.133 0.014

2012 0.151 1.279 0.137 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.134 0.016

2013 0.152 1.291 0.140 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.135 0.017

2014 #NAME? #NAME? 0.140 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2015 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2016 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2017 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2018 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2019 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
2020 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2021 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2022 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2023 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2024 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2025 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2026 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2027 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2028 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2029 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2030 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2031 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2032 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2033 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2034 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2035 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2036 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2037 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2038 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2039 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2040 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2041 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2042 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2043 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2044 0.000 #NAME?

2045 0.000 #NAME?

2046 0.000 #NAME?

2047 0.000 #NAME?

2048 0.000 #NAME?

2049 0.000 #NAME?

2050 0.000 #NAME?

2051 0.000 #NAME?

2052 0.000 #NAME?

2053 0.000 #NAME?

2052 0.000 #NAME?

2053 0.000 #NAME?

2054 0.000 #NAME?

2055 0.000 #NAME?

2056 0.000 #NAME?

2057 0.000 #NAME?

2058 0.000 #NAME?

2059 0.000 #NAME?

2060 0.000 #NAME?

2061 0.000 #NAME?

2062 0.000 #NAME?

2063 0.000 #NAME?

2064 0.000 #NAME?

2065 0.000 #NAME?

2066 0.000 #NAME?

2067 0.000 #NAME?

2068 0.000 #NAME?

2069 0.000 #NAME?

2070 0.000 #NAME?

UEC CumulativeTotal Energy (site) Incr. Equip. Cost Oper Cost delta UEC

Total 

Shipment Saturation Elec Shipment Impact

Shipment 

Impact Elec per Unit Total Fuel Elec

million kWh/yr million quad $ billion $ billion $ kWh/yr

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1 0.000

39.1 0.000 0.000

39.1 0.000 0.000

39.1 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.7% 39.1 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.080 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00

0.102 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.006 0.00

0.114 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00

0.140 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00

0.147 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00

0.151 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00

0.152 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########
#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

#NAME? #NAME? ######## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.176 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.176 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.176 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.176 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.177 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.178 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.180 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.182 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.184 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.185 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.184 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.185 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.186 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.186 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.186 #NAME? #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.187 1.978 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.188 1.989 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.189 2.000 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.190 2.011 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.192 2.022 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.193 2.034 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.194 2.045 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.195 2.056 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.196 2.067 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.196 2.077 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.197 2.088 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.198 2.098 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.199 2.109 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

######## 0.201 2.120 #NAME? ######## ######## #NAME? ########

Energy Saving

Energy

Savings

Oper. Cost 

Saving

Discount 

Factor (Nonmonetized)

Discounted 

Energy

Savings

Discount 

Factor 

(Monetary)

Incr. Equip. 

Cost

Oper. Cost 

Saving

quad billion $ quad billion $ billion $

Discounted Values

0

0

0

0

0

0

Millions

Shipment - Historical and Projected

0.000 0.000 1.126 0.000 1.126 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.093 0.000 1.093 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.061 0.000 1.061 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.030 0.000 1.030 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.000

#NAME? #NAME? 0.915 #NAME? 0.915 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.888 #NAME? 0.888 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.863 #NAME? 0.863 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.837 #NAME? 0.837 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.813 #NAME? 0.813 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.789 #NAME? 0.789 #NAME? #NAME?

0

0

0

0

0

0

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Millions

Base Case

Standards Case
#NAME? #NAME? 0.766 #NAME? 0.766 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.744 #NAME? 0.744 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.722 #NAME? 0.722 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.701 #NAME? 0.701 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.681 #NAME? 0.681 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.661 #NAME? 0.661 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.642 #NAME? 0.642 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.623 #NAME? 0.623 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.605 #NAME? 0.605 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.587 #NAME? 0.587 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.570 #NAME? 0.570 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.554 #NAME? 0.554 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.538 #NAME? 0.538 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.522 #NAME? 0.522 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.507 #NAME? 0.507 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.492 #NAME? 0.492 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.478 #NAME? 0.478 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.464 #NAME? 0.464 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.450 #NAME? 0.450 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.437 #NAME? 0.437 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.424 #NAME? 0.424 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.412 #NAME? 0.412 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.400 #NAME? 0.400 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.388 #NAME? 0.388 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.377 #NAME? 0.377 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.366 #NAME? 0.366 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.355 #NAME? 0.355 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.345 #NAME? 0.345 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.335 #NAME? 0.335 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.325 #NAME? 0.325 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.316 #NAME? 0.316 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.307 #NAME? 0.307 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.281 #NAME? 0.281 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.272 #NAME? 0.272 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.264 #NAME? 0.264 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.257 #NAME? 0.257 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.249 #NAME? 0.249 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.242 #NAME? 0.242 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.235 #NAME? 0.235 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.228 #NAME? 0.228 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.221 #NAME? 0.221 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.215 #NAME? 0.215 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.209 #NAME? 0.209 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.203 #NAME? 0.203 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.197 #NAME? 0.197 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.191 #NAME? 0.191 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.185 #NAME? 0.185 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.180 #NAME? 0.180 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.175 #NAME? 0.175 #NAME? #NAME?

Power Generation 5.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 3.0%

Year CO2 Marg. 

Emiss. rate

NOx Marg. 

Emiss. rate

CO2 Price 

$/ton (1)

CO2 Price 

$/ton (2)

CO2 Price 

$/ton (3)

CO2 Price 

$/ton (4)

CO2 

reduction

CO2 Value 

(1)

CO2 Value 

(2)

Mt/quad kt/quad 2007 $ 2007 $ 2007 $ 2007 $ Mt 

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

million 2010$

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 141.73 111.09 $4.70 $21.40 $35.10 $64.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2011 141.73 111.09 $4.90 $21.90 $35.70 $66.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2012 141.73 111.09 $5.10 $22.40 $36.40 $68.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2013 141.73 111.09 $5.30 $22.80 $37.00 $69.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

2014 141.73 111.09 $5.50 $23.30 $37.70 $71.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2015 141.73 111.09 $5.70 $23.80 $38.40 $72.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2016 141.73 111.09 $5.90 $24.30 $39.00 $74.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2017 141.73 111.09 $6.10 $24.80 $39.70 $76.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2018 141.73 111.09 $6.30 $25.30 $40.40 $77.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2019 141.73 111.09 $6.50 $25.80 $41.00 $79.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
2020 141.73 111.09 $6.80 $26.30 $41.70 $80.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2021 141.73 111.09 $7.10 $27.00 $42.50 $82.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2022 141.73 111.09 $7.40 $27.60 $43.40 $84.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2023 141.73 111.09 $7.70 $28.30 $44.20 $86.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2024 141.73 111.09 $7.90 $28.90 $45.00 $88.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2025 141.73 111.09 $8.20 $29.60 $45.90 $90.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2026 141.73 111.09 $8.50 $30.20 $46.70 $92.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2027 141.73 111.09 $8.80 $30.90 $47.50 $94.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2028 141.73 111.09 $9.10 $31.50 $48.40 $96.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2029 141.73 111.09 $9.40 $32.10 $49.20 $98.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2030 141.73 111.09 $9.70 $32.80 $50.00 $100.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2031 141.73 111.09 $10.00 $33.40 $50.90 $102.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2032 141.73 111.09 $10.30 $34.10 $51.70 $103.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2033 141.73 111.09 $10.60 $34.70 $52.50 $105.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2034 141.73 111.09 $10.90 $35.40 $53.40 $107.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2035 141.73 111.09 $11.20 $36.00 $54.20 $109.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2036 141.73 111.09 $11.50 $36.70 $55.00 $111.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2037 141.73 111.09 $11.80 $37.30 $55.90 $113.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2038 141.73 111.09 $12.10 $37.90 $56.70 $115.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2039 141.73 111.09 $12.40 $38.60 $57.50 $117.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2040 141.73 111.09 $12.70 $39.20 $58.40 $119.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2041 141.73 111.09 $13.00 $39.80 $59.00 $121.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2042 141.73 111.09 $13.30 $40.40 $59.70 $122.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2043 141.73 111.09 $13.60 $40.90 $60.40 $124.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2044 141.73 111.09 $13.90 $41.50 $61.00 $126.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2045 141.73 111.09 $14.20 $42.10 $61.70 $127.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2046 141.73 111.09 $14.50 $42.60 $62.40 $129.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2047 141.73 111.09 $14.80 $43.20 $63.00 $131.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2048 141.73 111.09 $15.10 $43.80 $63.70 $132.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2049 141.73 111.09 $15.40 $44.40 $64.40 $134.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2050 141.73 111.09 $15.70 $44.90 $65.00 $136.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2051 141.73 111.09 $16.00 $45.50 $65.70 $137.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2052 141.73 111.09 $16.30 $46.10 $66.40 $139.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2053 141.73 111.09 $16.70 $46.70 $67.10 $141.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2054 141.73 111.09 $17.00 $47.30 $67.70 $143.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2055 141.73 111.09 $17.30 $47.90 $68.40 $145.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2056 141.73 111.09 $17.70 $48.50 $69.10 $147.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2057 141.73 111.09 $18.00 $49.10 $69.90 $148.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2058 141.73 111.09 $18.40 $49.80 $70.60 $150.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2059 141.73 111.09 $18.80 $50.40 $71.30 $152.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2060 141.73 111.09 $19.10 $51.00 $72.00 $154.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2061 141.73 111.09 $19.50 $51.70 $72.80 $156.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2062 141.73 111.09 $19.90 $52.40 $73.50 $158.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2063 141.73 111.09 $20.30 $53.00 $74.30 $160.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2064 141.73 111.09 $20.70 $53.70 $75.00 $162.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2065 141.73 111.09 $21.10 $54.40 $75.80 $164.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2066 141.73 111.09 $21.60 $55.10 $76.60 $167.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2067 141.73 111.09 $22.00 $55.80 $77.40 $169.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2068 141.73 111.09 $22.40 $56.50 $78.20 $171.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2069 141.73 111.09 $22.90 $57.30 $79.00 $173.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2070 141.73 111.09 $23.30 $58.00 $79.80 $175.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2071 141.73 111.09 $23.80 $58.70 $80.60 $177.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2072 141.73 111.09 $24.30 $59.50 $81.50 $180.20 0.00 0.00 0.00

2073 141.73 111.09 $24.80 $60.30 $82.30 $182.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2074 141.73 111.09 $25.30 $61.00 $83.10 $184.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2075 141.73 111.09 $25.80 $61.80 $84.00 $187.20 0.00 0.00 0.00

2076 141.73 111.09 $26.30 $62.60 $84.90 $189.60 0.00 0.00 0.00
2077 141.73 111.09 $26.80 $63.40 $85.70 $192.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2078 141.73 111.09 $27.40 $64.20 $86.60 $194.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2079 141.73 111.09 $27.90 $65.10 $87.50 $197.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2080 141.73 111.09 $28.50 $65.90 $88.40 $199.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2081 141.73 111.09 $29.00 $66.70 $89.30 $202.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2082 141.73 111.09 $29.60 $67.60 $90.20 $204.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2083 141.73 111.09 $30.20 $68.50 $91.20 $207.30 0.00 0.00 0.00

2084 141.73 111.09 $30.80 $69.30 $92.10 $209.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2085 141.73 111.09 $31.40 $70.20 $93.10 $212.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

2086 141.73 111.09 $32.10 $71.10 $94.00 $215.40 0.00 0.00 0.00

2087 141.73 111.09 $32.70 $72.10 $95.00 $218.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2088 141.73 111.09 $33.30 $73.00 $96.00 $220.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2089 141.73 111.09 $34.00 $73.90 $96.90 $223.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2090 141.73 111.09 $34.70 $74.90 $97.90 $226.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

2091 141.73 111.09 $35.40 $75.80 $99.00 $229.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2092 141.73 111.09 $36.10 $76.80 $100.00 $232.40 0.00 0.00 0.00

2093 141.73 111.09 $36.80 $77.80 $101.00 $235.40 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0%

CO2 Value 

(3)

CO2 Value 

(4)

NOx Price 

$/kt (1)

NOx Price 

$/kt (2)

NOx Price 

$/kt (3)

NOx Price 

$/kt (4)

NOx Price 

$/kt (5)

NOx Price 

$/kt (6)

NOx 

reduction

NOx Value 

(1)

million 2010$ million 2010$ kt 

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00
3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

NOx Value 

(2)

NOx Value 

(3)

NOx Value 

(4)

NOx Value 

(5)

NOx Value 

(6)

million 2010$

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Consumer Rebates

0 1 2 3 4

2012 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2013 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2014 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2015 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2016 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2017 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2018 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2019 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2020 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2021 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2022 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2023 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2024 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2025 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2026 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2027 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2028 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2029 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2030 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2031 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2032 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2033 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2034 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2035 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2036 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2037 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2038 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2039 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2040 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2041 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2042 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

Consumer Tax Credits

0 1 2 3 4

2012 45.5% 34.6% 19.2% 0.7% 0.0% 100.0%

2013 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2014 44.4% 34.6% 19.2% 1.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2015 44.2% 34.6% 19.2% 2.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2016 43.8% 34.6% 19.2% 2.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2017 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2018 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2019 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2020 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2021 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2022 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2023 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2024 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2025 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2026 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2027 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2028 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2029 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2030 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2031 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2032 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2033 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2034 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2035 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%
2036 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2037 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2038 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2039 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2040 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2041 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2042 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

Manufacturer Tax Credits

0 1 2 3 4

2012 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2013 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2014 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2015 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2016 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2017 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2018 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2019 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2020 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2021 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2022 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2023 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2024 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2025 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2026 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2027 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2028 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2029 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2030 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2031 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2032 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2033 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2034 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2035 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2036 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2037 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2038 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2039 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2040 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2041 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2042 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

Bulk Govt Purchases

0 1 2 3 4

2012 46.1% 34.6% 19.2% 0.1% 0.0% 100.0%

2013 46.0% 34.6% 19.2% 0.2% 0.0% 100.0%

2014 45.9% 34.6% 19.2% 0.3% 0.0% 100.0%

2015 45.8% 34.6% 19.2% 0.4% 0.0% 100.0%

2016 45.7% 34.6% 19.2% 0.5% 0.0% 100.0%

2017 45.6% 34.6% 19.2% 0.6% 0.0% 100.0%

2018 45.5% 34.6% 19.2% 0.7% 0.0% 100.0%

2019 45.4% 34.6% 19.2% 0.8% 0.0% 100.0%

2020 45.3% 34.6% 19.2% 0.9% 0.0% 100.0%

2021 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2022 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2023 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2024 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2025 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2026 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2027 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2028 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%
2029 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2030 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2031 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2032 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2033 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2034 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2035 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2036 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2037 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2038 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2039 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2040 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2041 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2042 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Voluntary EE Targets

0 1 2 3 4

2012 31.6% 34.6% 19.2% 14.6% 0.0% 100.0%

2013 9.5% 34.6% 19.2% 36.7% 0.0% 100.0%

2014 2.6% 34.6% 19.2% 43.6% 0.0% 100.0%

2015 2.6% 34.6% 19.2% 43.6% 0.0% 100.0%

2016 2.6% 34.6% 19.2% 43.6% 0.0% 100.0%

2017 0.0% 33.8% 19.2% 47.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2018 0.0% 31.8% 19.2% 49.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2019 0.0% 28.8% 19.2% 52.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2020 0.0% 25.8% 19.2% 55.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2021 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2022 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2023 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2024 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2025 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2026 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2027 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2028 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2029 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2030 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2031 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2032 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2033 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2034 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2035 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2036 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2037 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2038 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2039 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2040 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2041 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2042 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Early Replacement 

0 1 2 3 4

2012 26.0% 34.6% 19.2% 20.2% 0.0% 100.0% 20.2%

2013 7.9% 34.6% 19.2% 38.3% 0.0% 100.0% 18.1%

2014 0.0% 26.3% 19.2% 54.5% 0.0% 100.0% 16.2%

2015 0.0% 12.5% 19.2% 68.3% 0.0% 100.0% 13.8%

2016 0.0% 1.9% 19.2% 78.9% 0.0% 100.0% 10.7%

2017 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 87.1% 0.0% 100.0% 8.2%

2018 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 93.8% 0.0% 100.0% 6.7%

2019 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 6.1%

2020 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2021 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
2022 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2023 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2025 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2026 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
Rebate Value 2.00

Product Class PC1

Standard @ Efficiency Level 3

No Rebate With Rebate

Designs at or above CSL

BC Ratio 14.7 1000000.0

Market Share #NAME? #NAME?

Mkt shr Increase #NAME? #NAME?

Estimated mkt barrier level #NAME? #NAME?

Energy Cost Mnt+Rpr Cost Total

0 Baseline 34.8 37.86 0.00 37.86

1 1 17.4 18.93 0.00 18.93 -18.93

2 2 13.0 14.20 0.00 14.20 -23.66

3 3 8.7 9.47 0.00 9.47 -28.40

4 4 0.2 0.19 0.00 0.19 -37.67

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

UEC

(kWh)

Operating Costs

Design Incremental

0 1 2.5 4 5

No Low Moderate High xHigh

r 1 0.5 0.25 0.25 0.25

Max 1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5

Mid 10 2 0.3 0.1 0.04

Fit 1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Penetration Rate

Benefit/Cost Ratio
#NAME? No Rebate With Rebate
Design

No Rebate With Rebate No Rebate With Rebate

223.27 0.0 0.0

223.66 0.39 0.00 48.1 1000000.0

224.15 0.88 0.00 26.9 1000000.0

225.20 1.93 0.00 14.7 1000000.0

230.00 6.73 4.73 5.6 8.0

Installed Cost BC Ratio Incremental

0.000000

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? Estimated #NAME?

0.001 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.2 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.3 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.4 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.5 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.6 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.7 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.8 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.9 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

3 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

4 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

5 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

6 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

7 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
8 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

9 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

12 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

14 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

16 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

18 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

22 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

24 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

26 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

28 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

32 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

34 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

36 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

38 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

42 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

44 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

46 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

48 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

55 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

65 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

75 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

85 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

95 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

100 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Rebate Value 2.00

Product Class PC2

Standard @ Efficiency Level 3

No Rebate With Rebate

Designs at or above CSL

BC Ratio 1.6 1.8

Market Share #NAME? #NAME?

Mkt shr Increase #NAME? #NAME?

Estimated mkt barrier level #NAME? #NAME?

Energy Cost Mnt+Rpr Cost Total

0 Baseline 39.1 42.59 0.00 42.59

1 1 32.1 35.02 0.00 35.02 -7.57

2 2 23.5 25.56 0.00 25.56 -17.04

3 3 19.1 20.82 0.00 20.82 -21.77

4 4 0.3 0.38 0.00 0.38 -42.22

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

UEC

(kWh)

Operating Costs

Design Incremental

0 1 2.5 4 5

No Low Moderate High xHigh

r 1 0.5 0.25 0.25 0.25

Max 1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5

Mid 10 2 0.3 0.1 0.04

Fit 1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Penetration Rate

Benefit/Cost Ratio
#NAME? No Rebate With Rebate
Design

No Rebate With Rebate No Rebate With Rebate

482.17 0.0 0.0

482.17 0.00 0.00 1000000.0 1000000.0

485.54 3.37 1.37 5.1 12.4

496.05 13.88 11.88 1.6 1.8

489.79 7.63 5.63 5.5 7.5

Installed Cost BC Ratio Incremental

0.000000

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? Estimated #NAME?

0.001 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.2 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.3 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.4 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.5 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.6 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.7 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.8 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.9 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

3 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

4 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

5 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

6 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

7 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
8 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

9 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

12 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

14 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

16 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

18 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

22 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

24 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

26 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

28 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

32 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

34 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

36 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

38 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

42 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

44 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

46 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

48 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

55 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

65 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

75 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

85 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

95 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

100 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Rebate Value 2.00

Product Class PC1

Standard @ Efficiency Level 3

No Rebate With Rebate

Designs at or above CSL

BC Ratio 1000000.0 1000000.0

Market Share 0.0% #NAME?

Mkt shr Increase #NAME? #NAME?

Estimated mkt barrier level #NAME? #NAME?

Energy Cost Mnt+Rpr Cost Total

0 Baseline 34.750 37.86 0.00 37.86

1 1 17.375 18.93 0.00 18.93 -18.93

2 2 13.031 14.20 0.00 14.20 -23.66

3 3 8.688 9.47 0.00 9.47 -28.40

4 4 0.174 0.19 0.00 0.19 -37.67

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

UEC

(kWh)

Operating Costs

Design Incremental

0 1 2.5 4 5

No Low Moderate High xHigh

r 1 0.5 0.25 0.25 0.25

Max 1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5

Mid 10 2 0.3 0.1 0.04

Fit 1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Penetration Rate

Benefit/Cost Ratio
#NAME? Estimated #NAME? No Rebate With Rebate
Design

No Rebate With Rebate No Rebate With Rebate

223.27 0.0 0.0

223.66 0.39 0.00 48.1 1000000.0

224.15 0.88 0.00 26.9 1000000.0

225.20 1.93 0.00 14.7 1000000.0

230.00 6.73 4.73 5.6 8.0

Installed Cost BC Ratio Incremental

0.000000

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? Estimated #NAME?

0.001 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.2 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.3 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.4 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.5 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.6 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.7 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.8 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

0.9 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

2 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

3 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

4 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

5 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

6 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

7 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
8 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

9 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

12 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

14 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

16 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

18 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

22 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

24 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

26 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

28 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

32 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

34 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

36 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

38 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

42 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

44 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

46 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

48 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

55 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

65 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

75 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

85 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

95 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

100 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Learning Rates

Learning Rates Rescaled

Year Default Low High MWO-Only AEO Chained No Learning Year

28.9% 19.2% 37.0% 39.6%

2010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 2010

2011 0.981 0.986 0.979 0.968 0.989 1.000 2011

2012 0.963 0.971 0.958 0.938 0.978 1.000 2012

2013 0.946 0.958 0.939 0.909 0.964 1.000 2013

2014 0.930 0.945 0.920 0.883 0.949 1.000 2014

2015 0.914 0.933 0.903 0.859 0.932 1.000 2015

2016 0.900 0.921 0.886 0.837 0.916 1.000 2016

2017 0.886 0.910 0.871 0.817 0.899 1.000 2017

2018 0.873 0.900 0.857 0.799 0.883 1.000 2018

2019 0.861 0.890 0.842 0.781 0.866 1.000 2019

2020 0.848 0.880 0.828 0.763 0.848 1.000 2020

2021 0.836 0.870 0.814 0.745 0.829 1.000 2021

2022 0.823 0.860 0.801 0.728 0.810 1.000 2022

2023 0.812 0.850 0.788 0.711 0.791 1.000 2023

2024 0.800 0.841 0.775 0.696 0.772 1.000 2024

2025 0.790 0.832 0.763 0.681 0.754 1.000 2025

2026 0.779 0.824 0.752 0.667 0.736 1.000 2026

2027 0.770 0.816 0.741 0.654 0.719 1.000 2027

2028 0.760 0.808 0.731 0.642 0.701 1.000 2028

2029 0.751 0.800 0.721 0.630 0.684 1.000 2029

2030 0.742 0.793 0.711 0.618 0.667 1.000 2030

2031 0.733 0.785 0.702 0.607 0.651 1.000 2031

2032 0.725 0.778 0.692 0.596 0.634 1.000 2032

2033 0.716 0.771 0.683 0.585 0.619 1.000 2033

2034 0.708 0.764 0.674 0.575 0.604 1.000 2034

2035 0.700 0.757 0.665 0.565 0.589 1.000 2035

2036 0.692 0.751 0.657 0.555 0.575 1.000 2036

2037 0.685 0.745 0.649 0.546 0.561 1.000 2037

2038 0.678 0.739 0.641 0.537 0.547 1.000 2038

2039 0.670 0.733 0.633 0.529 0.534 1.000 2039

2040 0.663 0.727 0.626 0.521 0.521 1.000 2040

2041 0.657 0.721 0.618 0.513 0.508 1.000 2041

2042 0.650 0.715 0.611 0.505 0.496 1.000 2042

2043 0.643 0.709 0.604 0.497 0.484 1.000 2043

Price Scaling Factors

Low 1.02

High 0.99

MWO-Only 0.95

AEO Chained 1.02
Default Low High MWO-Only AEO ChainedNo Learning

28.9% 19.2% 37.0% 39.6%

1.076 1.058 1.087 1.132 1.054 1.000

1.056 1.043 1.064 1.096 1.043 1.000

1.036 1.028 1.042 1.062 1.031 1.000

1.018 1.014 1.020 1.030 1.017 1.000

1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

0.983 0.987 0.981 0.973 0.983 1.000

0.968 0.975 0.963 0.948 0.965 1.000

0.953 0.963 0.947 0.925 0.948 1.000

0.939 0.952 0.931 0.904 0.930 1.000

0.926 0.942 0.916 0.884 0.913 1.000

0.912 0.931 0.900 0.864 0.894 1.000

0.899 0.920 0.885 0.844 0.874 1.000

0.886 0.910 0.870 0.824 0.854 1.000

0.873 0.900 0.856 0.806 0.834 1.000

0.861 0.890 0.843 0.788 0.814 1.000

0.849 0.881 0.830 0.771 0.795 1.000

0.838 0.872 0.817 0.756 0.776 1.000

0.828 0.863 0.806 0.741 0.758 1.000

0.818 0.855 0.795 0.727 0.739 1.000

0.808 0.847 0.784 0.714 0.721 1.000

0.798 0.839 0.773 0.700 0.703 1.000

0.789 0.831 0.762 0.687 0.686 1.000

0.779 0.824 0.752 0.675 0.669 1.000

0.770 0.816 0.742 0.662 0.652 1.000

0.761 0.809 0.732 0.651 0.637 1.000

0.753 0.802 0.723 0.639 0.621 1.000

0.745 0.795 0.714 0.629 0.606 1.000

0.737 0.788 0.705 0.619 0.591 1.000

0.729 0.782 0.697 0.609 0.577 1.000

0.721 0.775 0.688 0.599 0.563 1.000

0.714 0.769 0.680 0.590 0.549 1.000

0.706 0.763 0.672 0.580 0.536 1.000

0.699 0.757 0.664 0.571 0.523 1.000

0.692 0.751 0.657 0.563 0.510 1.000
Housing Projections

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

Projected Total Housing Stock (millions) Projected Housing Starts (millions)

Reference High Low Reference High Low

1990 93.99 93.99 93.99 1990 1.38 1.38 1.38

1991 94.87 94.87 94.87 1991 1.18 1.18 1.18

1992 95.75 95.75 95.75 1992 1.41 1.41 1.41

1993 96.63 96.63 96.63 1993 1.54 1.54 1.54

1994 97.88 97.88 97.88 1994 1.76 1.76 1.76

1995 99.06 99.06 99.06 1995 1.69 1.69 1.69

1996 100.10 100.10 100.10 1996 1.82 1.82 1.82

1997 101.31 101.31 101.31 1997 1.49 1.49 1.49

1998 102.61 102.61 102.61 1998 1.54 1.54 1.54

1999 103.83 103.83 103.83 1999 1.64 1.64 1.64

2000 105.01 105.01 105.01 2000 1.70 1.70 1.70

2001 106.27 106.27 106.27 2001 1.72 1.72 1.72

2002 107.35 107.35 107.35 2002 1.75 1.75 1.75

2003 108.53 108.53 108.53 2003 1.79 1.79 1.79

2004 109.73 109.73 109.73 2004 1.80 1.80 1.80

2005 111.09 111.09 111.09 2005 2.22 2.22 2.22

2006 112.50 112.50 112.50 2006 1.92 1.92 1.92

2007 112.48 112.48 112.48 2007 1.44 1.44 1.44

2008 113.33 113.33 113.33 2008 0.98 0.98 0.98

2009 114.03 114.03 114.03 2009 0.61 0.61 0.61

2010 115.26 115.26 115.26 2010 0.92 0.92 0.92

2011 116.23 116.48 116.01 2011 1.49 1.73 1.26

2012 117.44 117.97 116.94 2012 1.72 2.01 1.44

2013 118.70 119.54 117.91 2013 1.79 2.10 1.49

2014 119.98 121.15 118.88 2014 1.81 2.14 1.50

2015 121.33 122.86 119.89 2015 1.88 2.25 1.54

2016 122.74 124.66 120.93 2016 1.95 2.34 1.57

2017 124.17 126.47 121.99 2017 1.97 2.36 1.59

2018 125.63 128.32 123.06 2018 2.00 2.41 1.62

2019 127.11 130.20 124.15 2019 2.03 2.44 1.63

2020 128.58 132.09 125.22 2020 2.03 2.46 1.62

2021 129.98 133.91 126.23 2021 1.97 2.41 1.56

2022 131.33 135.70 127.17 2022 1.92 2.38 1.50

2023 132.64 137.47 128.05 2023 1.89 2.36 1.45

2024 133.94 139.23 128.91 2024 1.88 2.36 1.42

2025 135.25 141.02 129.74 2025 1.89 2.40 1.40

2026 136.54 142.83 130.55 2026 1.89 2.43 1.38

2027 137.80 144.62 131.30 2027 1.85 2.41 1.33

2028 139.01 146.36 132.00 2028 1.81 2.37 1.27

2029 140.18 148.07 132.66 2029 1.78 2.35 1.23

2030 141.34 149.78 133.30 2030 1.78 2.35 1.22

2031 142.48 151.46 133.90 2031 1.75 2.32 1.18

2032 143.58 153.08 134.45 2032 1.71 2.27 1.13

2033 144.65 154.67 134.97 2033 1.70 2.25 1.11

2034 145.73 156.24 135.48 2034 1.70 2.24 1.09

2035 146.79 157.81 135.96 2035 1.70 2.24 1.07

2036 147.85 159.36 136.42 2036 1.70 2.24 1.07

2037 148.91 160.92 136.89 2037 1.70 2.24 1.07

2038 149.97 162.47 137.35 2038 1.70 2.24 1.07

2039 151.03 164.03 137.81 2039 1.70 2.24 1.07

2040 152.09 165.58 138.27 2040 1.70 2.24 1.07

2041 153.15 167.14 138.73 2041 1.70 2.24 1.07

2042 154.21 168.69 139.19 2042 1.70 2.24 1.07

2043 155.27 170.25 139.65 2043 1.70 2.24 1.07

Demolitions (Calculated)

Reference High Low

1990 - - -

1991 0.50 0.50 0.50

1992 0.30 0.30 0.30

1993 0.53 0.53 0.53

1994 0.30 0.30 0.30

1995 0.58 0.58 0.58

1996 0.65 0.65 0.65

1997 0.61 0.61 0.61

1998 0.19 0.19 0.19

1999 0.32 0.32 0.32

2000 0.46 0.46 0.46

2001 0.44 0.44 0.44

2002 0.64 0.64 0.64

2003 0.57 0.57 0.57

2004 0.59 0.59 0.59

2005 0.44 0.44 0.44

2006 0.81 0.81 0.81

2007 1.95 1.95 1.95

2008 0.59 0.59 0.59

2009 0.28 0.28 0.28

2010 -0.63 -0.63 -0.63

2011 -0.04 -0.29 0.18

2012 0.28 0.24 0.34

2013 0.46 0.43 0.47

2014 0.51 0.50 0.52

2015 0.46 0.42 0.48

2016 0.46 0.46 0.50

2017 0.52 0.53 0.52

2018 0.52 0.52 0.51

2019 0.52 0.53 0.53

2020 0.56 0.55 0.55

2021 0.63 0.63 0.62

2022 0.62 0.62 0.62

2023 0.60 0.61 0.61

2024 0.59 0.60 0.60

2025 0.58 0.57 0.58

2026 0.60 0.59 0.60

2027 0.63 0.64 0.62

2028 0.65 0.67 0.63

2029 0.64 0.65 0.62

2030 0.61 0.64 0.60

2031 0.64 0.68 0.62

2032 0.66 0.70 0.63

2033 0.64 0.69 0.61

2034 0.62 0.67 0.60

2035 0.63 0.67 0.60

2036 0.64 0.68 0.61

2037 0.64 0.68 0.61

2038 0.64 0.68 0.61

2039 0.64 0.68 0.61

2040 0.64 0.68 0.61

2041 0.64 0.68 0.61

2042 0.64 0.68 0.61

2043 0.64 0.68 0.61



Elec Prices

Average Energy Prices (2010 $ / MMBtu)

Electricity ($/MMBtu site energy) Electricity ($/kWh site energy)

Ref. High Low Ref. High Low

2007 32.22 32.22 32.22 2007 0.10994 0.10994 0.10994

2008 33.72 33.72 33.72 2008 0.11505 0.11505 0.11505

2009 32.75 32.77 32.77 2009 0.11174 0.11181 0.11182

2010 31.34 31.38 31.35 2010 0.10693 0.10706 0.10696

2011 30.28 30.73 29.98 2011 0.10333 0.10486 0.10230

2012 31.48 32.11 31.03 2012 0.10742 0.10956 0.10589

2013 31.87 32.45 31.21 2013 0.10875 0.11072 0.10651

2014 31.89 32.48 31.22 2014 0.10881 0.11082 0.10651

2015 31.83 32.53 31.08 2015 0.10860 0.11099 0.10604

2016 32.05 32.83 31.18 2016 0.10935 0.11200 0.10638

2017 32.21 32.96 31.11 2017 0.10989 0.11245 0.10615

2018 32.19 33.06 31.04 2018 0.10982 0.11279 0.10589

2019 32.08 33.17 30.82 2019 0.10947 0.11319 0.10516

2020 32.25 33.40 30.93 2020 0.11004 0.11398 0.10554

2021 32.42 33.63 31.01 2021 0.11061 0.11473 0.10579

2022 32.49 33.65 31.08 2022 0.11087 0.11482 0.10605

2023 32.61 33.77 31.16 2023 0.11127 0.11522 0.10631

2024 32.70 34.15 31.42 2024 0.11156 0.11652 0.10720

2025 32.67 34.50 31.74 2025 0.11147 0.11772 0.10829

2026 32.81 34.90 31.70 2026 0.11195 0.11907 0.10817

2027 32.99 35.22 31.57 2027 0.11255 0.12019 0.10772

2028 33.15 35.62 31.62 2028 0.11311 0.12154 0.10787

2029 33.56 36.05 31.70 2029 0.11450 0.12300 0.10817

2030 33.88 36.49 31.65 2030 0.11561 0.12451 0.10798

2031 34.24 36.80 31.75 2031 0.11683 0.12555 0.10833

2032 34.55 36.82 31.98 2032 0.11787 0.12561 0.10911

2033 34.69 36.79 32.12 2033 0.11838 0.12554 0.10959

2034 34.94 37.02 32.28 2034 0.11920 0.12633 0.11014

2035 35.15 37.31 32.41 2035 0.11995 0.12729 0.11059

2036 35.36 37.58 32.51 2036 0.12064 0.12823 0.11094

2037 35.56 37.86 32.62 2037 0.12133 0.12918 0.11128

2038 35.77 38.14 32.72 2038 0.12203 0.13013 0.11163

2039 35.97 38.42 32.82 2039 0.12274 0.13109 0.11198

2040 36.18 38.71 32.92 2040 0.12344 0.13206 0.11233

2041 36.39 38.99 33.02 2041 0.12415 0.13304 0.11268

2042 36.60 39.28 33.13 2042 0.12487 0.13402 0.11303

2043 36.81 39.57 33.23 2043 0.12559 0.13501 0.11338

2044 37.02 39.86 33.33 2044 0.12631 0.13601 0.11374

2045 37.23 40.16 33.44 2045 0.12704 0.13702 0.11409

2046 37.45 40.45 33.54 2046 0.12777 0.13803 0.11445

2047 37.66 40.75 33.65 2047 0.12851 0.13905 0.11481

2048 37.88 41.05 33.75 2048 0.12925 0.14008 0.11516

2049 38.10 41.36 33.86 2049 0.12999 0.14111 0.11552

2050 38.32 41.66 33.96 2050 0.13074 0.14216 0.11588

2051 38.54 41.97 34.07 2051 0.13150 0.14321 0.11625

2052 38.76 42.28 34.18 2052 0.13225 0.14427 0.11661

2053 38.98 42.59 34.28 2053 0.13302 0.14533 0.11697

2054 39.21 42.91 34.39 2054 0.13378 0.14641 0.11734

2055 39.44 43.23 34.50 2055 0.13455 0.14749 0.11770

2056 39.66 43.55 34.60 2056 0.13533 0.14858 0.11807

2057 39.89 43.87 34.71 2057 0.13611 0.14968 0.11844

2058 40.12 44.19 34.82 2058 0.13689 0.15078 0.11881

2059 40.35 44.52 34.93 2059 0.13768 0.15190 0.11918

2060 40.58 44.85 35.04 2060 0.13847 0.15302 0.11955

2061 40.82 45.18 35.15 2061 0.13927 0.15415 0.11993

2062 41.05 45.51 35.26 2062 0.14007 0.15529 0.12030
2063 41.29 45.85 35.37 2063 0.14088 0.15644 0.12067

2064 41.53 46.19 35.48 2064 0.14169 0.15760 0.12105

2065 41.77 46.53 35.59 2065 0.14251 0.15876 0.12143

2066 42.01 46.87 35.70 2066 0.14333 0.15993 0.12181

2067 42.25 47.22 35.81 2067 0.14416 0.16112 0.12219

2068 42.49 47.57 35.92 2068 0.14499 0.16231 0.12257

2069 42.74 47.92 36.04 2069 0.14582 0.16351 0.12295

2070 42.98 48.28 36.15 2070 0.14666 0.16472 0.12334

2071 43.23 48.63 36.26 2071 0.14751 0.16593 0.12372

2072 43.48 48.99 36.37 2072 0.14836 0.16716 0.12411

2073 43.73 49.35 36.49 2073 0.14921 0.16840 0.12449

Source: AEO 2010

After 2035, the rate of change from 2020-2035 is used.




Heat Rates

Marginal Source to Site Conversion Factor

Elec

(Btu/kWh)

2005 11500

2006 11500

2007 11200

2008 10250

2009 10000

2010 10000

2011 10000

2012 10000

2013 10000

2014 10000

2015 10000

2016 10000

2017 9700

2018 9000

2019 8300

2020 8088

2021 8088

2022 7949

2023 7200

2024 6966

2025 6500

2026 6309

2027 6309

2028 6309

2029 6309

2030 6309

2031 6309

2032 6309

2033 6309

2034 6309

2035 6309

2036 6309

2037 6309

2038 6309

2039 6309

2040 6309

2041 6309

2042 6309

2043 6309

2044 6309

2045 6309

2046 6309

2047 6309

2048 6309

2049 6309

2050 6309

2051 6309

2052 6309

2053 6309

2054 6309

2055 6309

2056 6309

2057 6309

2058 6309

2059 6309

2060 6309
2061 6309

2062 6309

2063 6309

2064 6309

2065 6309

2066 6309

2067 6309

2068 6309

2069 6309

2070 6309




Lifetime

Assumptions

Lifetime of Microwaves up to 2009:

 Average 10.91

 alpha 4.75 shape

 beta 10.28 scale

 low value 1 location

1 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

3 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

4 0.2% 99.7% 99.8%

5 0.8% 98.9% 99.2%

6 2.1% 96.8% 97.9%

7 4.2% 92.5% 95.6%

8 7.4% 85.1% 92.0%

9 11.3% 73.8% 86.7%

10 15.0% 58.8% 79.6%

11 17.2% 41.6% 70.8%

12 16.4% 25.2% 60.5%

13 12.7% 12.4% 49.4%

14 7.7% 4.7% 38.1%

15 3.4% 1.3% 27.6%

16 1.1% 0.2% 18.6%

17 0.2% 0.0% 11.5%

18 0.0% 0.0% 6.5%

19 0.0% 0.0% 3.3%

20 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%

sum: 100%

wt. avg. lifetime = 10.910759

max lifetime = 13

% surviving to 

next year Age % retiring % surviving