P.1 

OAR Box 1865 

Prepped by Charmelle Mathews 

Document Number: 

112)IV-K-(B)-7 

Docket Number: 

A-83-27 

Printed 12/3/2008 3:22:17 PM Sheet 112 of 198 
ENERGY 4AND EiwmoNiMEiv^ INC. 

A-83-

P.2 

1655 NORTH FORT MYER DEUVE ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA 22209 703/528-1900 IV-K-(B)- 7 

October 3, 1986 

Mr. Robert Pahel-Short 

Economic Analysis Branch (MD-12) 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Research Triangle Park, N. C. 27711 

Subject: EPA Contract No. 68-02-4202, Work Assignment No. 18 

IFCAM Results 

Dear Robert: 

The enclosed tables summarize IFCAM projections of industrial 

residual fuel demand in 1990, from new units installed after 1985, for 

the eight IFCAM runs completed last month. All of these runs are based 

on using the non-carriage market natural gas price forecasts. 

When the emission limit is 0.3 lb S02/MMBtu, the compliance 

strategies are different. For the High oil prices/non-carriage market 

gas prices IFCAM run, about half of the units select a compliance oil 

type and about half scrub a high sulfur oil type. For the Low oil 

prices/non- carriage rigid market gas prices IFCAM run, almost all of the 

boilers chose the compliance oil type. This difference occurs because 

the sulfur premiums are larger for the High oil prices (than they are for 

the Low oil prices) and this encourages a scrubbing compliance strategy 

for units with large capacity utilization rates. 

For the Low oil prices/all scrub IFCAM run, 1.6 percent sulfur 

residual fuel oil is selected in the West because of a tight SIP. For 

the Base Case and 0.8 IFCAM runs, 0.3 percent sulfur residual fuel oil 

demand occurs because of tight SIP's. For the Low oil prices 0.8 and 

0.3 IFCAM runs, 1.6 percent sulfur residual fuel oil demand occurs due 

to a partial scrubbing option. 

Call me if you have any questions. 

Sincerely, / 

Tim Hogan fl 

Enclosures 

cc: Dr. A Wehe 

TH:dss 

MANAGEMENT / ECONOMICS / ENGINEERING 
LOW OIL 

RESIDUAL FUEL OIL DEMAND IN NEM INDUSTRIAL BOILERS > 100 MMBTU/HR 

C10**9 BTUSI 

FEDERAL REGIONS 

BASE CASE 

RESIDUAL 

FUEL 

3 

1 

0 

0 

OIL 

OXS 

6XS 

Q'/.S 

.3ZS 

TYPES 

NEW ENG. 

0. 

2245. 

3953. 

1434. 

N.Y/N.J. 

493. 

5661. 

3055. 

5059. 

MID ATL. 

3865. 

27725. 

3822. 

7807. 

SO. ATL. 

20641. 

30375. 

16929. 

0. 

MIDWEST 

20356. 

40789. 

16305. 

4741. 

SO. WEST 

93349. 

11706. 

0. 

0. 

CENTRAL 

8442. 

10753. 

712. 

0. 

NO.CNTRL 

0. 

15987. 

0. 

0. 

WEST 

5366. 

3526. 

2321. 

22338. 

NO. WEST 

0. 

1205. 

29970. 

1424. 

US TOTAL 

152512. 

149971. 

77066. 

42804. 

O.C. 1: 0.8 

RESIDUAL 

FUEL OIL TYPES 

3.0X3 

1.65CS 

0.8ZS 

0.3XS 

NEM ENG. 

0. 

0. 

6198. 

1434. 

N.Y/N.J. 

0. 

2135. 

7074. 

5059. 

MID ATL. 

0. 

5880. 

29532. 

7807. 

SO. ATL. 

0. 

0. 

67945. 

0. 

MIDWEST 

0. 

3614. 

73836. 

4741. 

FEDERAL REGIONS 

MIDMEST SO. MEST CENTRAL NO.CNTRL MEST NO. MEST US TOTAL 

0. 

0. 

19907. 

0. 

0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 

0 . 3416. 0 . 15045. 

0 . 6975. 31175. 242641. 

0 . 23159. 1424. 43625. 

O.C. 2: 0.3 

RESIDUAL 

FUEL OIL TYPES 

3.0KS 

1.6XS 

0.8XS 

0.3XS 

NEM ENG. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

7632. 

N.Y/N.J. 

0. 

2135. 

0. 

12133. 

MID ATL. 

0. 

8957. 

0. 

34263. 

SO. ATL. 

0. 

10676. 

0. 

57269. 

MIDMEST 

0. 

10676. 

0. 

71514. 

FEDERAL RE6I0NS 

MIDMEST SO. MEST CENTRAL NO.CNTRL MEST NO. MEST US TOTAL 

0. 0. 

0. 2135. 

0. 0. 

0. 17772. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

1281. 

0. 

32270. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

32598. 

0 

35861 

0 

265450 

O.C. 3 

RESIDUAL 

FUEL OIL TYPES 

3.0X3 

SCRUB »•'£ 

o.azs 

0.3X3 

NEM ENG. 

6263. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

N.Y/N.J. 

13720. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

MID ATL. 

40646. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

SO. ATL. 

62470. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

MIDMEST 

70091. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

FEDERAL REGIONS 

MIDMEST SO. MEST CENTRAL NO.CNTRL MEST NO. MEST US TOTAL 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

8651. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

15965. 

0. 

0. 

11585. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

213426. 

15965. 

0. 

0. 

TJ 

CO 
HIGH OIL 

RESIDUAL FUEL OIL DEMAND IN NEM INDUSTRIAL BOILERS > 100 MMBTU/HR 

(10*119 BTUSI 

RESIDUAL 

FUEL OIL TYPES 

„.„ „ „.„ „

 3-05£S 

BASE CASE i.6xs 

0.8XS 

0.3ZS 

NEM ENG. 

0. 

2245. 

3953. 

1434. 

N.Y/N.J. 

5420. 

3526. 

3055. 

2267. 

MID ATL. 

11224. 

24397. 

3822. 

3778. 

SO. ATL. 

24506. 

30375. 

13063. 

0. 

MIDWEST 

27638. 

37175. 

14169. 

3208. 

FEDERAL REGIONS 

MIDWEST SO. WEST CENTRAL NO.CNTRL NEST NO. MEST US TOTAL 

0 . 8442. 

0 . 10753. 

0 . 0 . 

0 . 0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

5366. 

2245. 

2321. 

0. 

0. 

1205. 

0. 

0. 

82596. 

111920. 

40384. 

10687. 

O.C. 1: 0. 8 

RESIDUAL 

FUEL OIL TYPES 

3.0X3 

1.6XS 

0.8XS 

0.3XS 

NEW ENG. 

0. 

0. 

6198. 

1434. 

N.Y/N.J. 

4928. 

0. 

7074. 

2267. 

MID ATL. 

16316. 

0. 

23126. 

3778. 

SO. ATL. 

10676. 

0. 

57269. 

0. 

MIDWEST 

13688. 

0. 

65295. 

3208. 

FEDERAL RE6I0NS 

MIDWEST SO. WEST CENTRAL NO.CNTRL 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

2135. 

0. 

6975. 

0. 

WEST NO. MEST US TOTAL 

0. 47742. 

0. 0. 

0. 165936. 

0. 10687. 

O.C. 2: 0.3 

RESIDUAL 

FUEL OIL TYPES 

3.0XS 

1.6XS 

0.8X3 

0.3X3 

NEM ENG. 

2102. 

0. 

0. 

5530. 

N Y/N.J. 

6778. 

0. 

0. 

7490. 

MID ATL. 

27868. 

0. 

0. 

15352. 

SO. ATL. 

39113. 

0. 

0. 

28831. 

MIDMEST 

43723. 

0. 

0. 

38467. 

FEOERAL REGIONS 

MIDMEST SO. MEST CENTRAL NO.CNTRL 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

MEST NO. MEST US TOTAL 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

119585. 

0. 

0. 

95670. 

O.C. 3 

RESIDUAL 

FUEL OIL TYPES 

3.0XS. 

SCRUB J'*3, 

0.6XS 

0.3XS 

NEM ENG. 

7632. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

N.Y/N.J. 

14268. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

MID ATL. 

40646. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

SO. ATL. 

62470. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

MIDMEST 

64178. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

FEDERAL REGIONS 

MIDMEST SO. MEST CENTRAL NO.CNTRL MEST NO. MEST US TOTAL 

0. 

0 . 

0 . 

0 . 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0 . 189194. 

0 . 0 . 

0 . 0 . 

0 . 0 . 

Tl