**Input and Summary**

**User Inputs: TSL Level =**  **3**

**Discounting future values:** Discount Rate for NPV Determination 3.0% Discount Rate for Energy Savings 3.0% 1 2 Year to discount to 2011 **TSL** PC1 PC2 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 **Market Impact** 4 4 4

**Economic Growth Standards Level PC1 =**  **3 Learning Case**  **Standards Level PC2 = 3** 

**Policy** Standards

Rebate Consumer Tax Credit Manufacturer Tax Credit Voluntary Efficiency Target Early Replacement Bulk Govt Purchase **PC1**

Level Standby Power UEC Installed Price Market

Share Default Low High MWO only

W kWh $ % Baseline 4.00 34.8 $223 46% $223 $227 $221 $212 1 2.00 17.4 $224 35% $224 $227 $221 $212 2 1.50 13.0 $224 19% $224 $228 $222 $213 3 1.00 8.7 $225 0% $225 $229 $223 $214 4 0.02 0.2 $230 0% $230 $234 $228 $218

**PC2** Map of CSLs by TSL

Rebate **RP e** **las ti** **cit y -** **0.34**



### Re**fe ren** **ce**



### De**fa ul** **t**

**PC2**

Level Standby Power UEC Installed Price Market

Share Default Low High MWO only

W kWh $ % Baseline 4.50 39.1 $482 100% $482 $490 $477 $458 1 3.70 32.1 $482 0% $482 $490 $477 $458 2 2.70 23.5 $486 0% $486 $493 $481 $461 3 2.20 19.1 $496 0% $496 $504 $491 $471 4 0.04 0.3 $490 0% $490 $498 $485 $465

**Base Case Efficiency**

**Trend Base Case Efficiency**  **Trend**

**Design # 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **Total Design #** 

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007 2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008 2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009 2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010 2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011 2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012 2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013 2014 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2014 2015 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2015 2016 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2016 2017 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2017 2018 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2018 **PC1 RP** **e las** **ti cit** **y - 0.34** 



### Re**fe ren** **ce**



### De**fa ul** **t**2019 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2019 2020 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2020 2021 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2021 2022 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2022 2023 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2023 2024 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2024 2025 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2025 2026 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2026 2027 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2027 2028 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2028 2029 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2029 2030 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2030 2031 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2031 2032 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2032 2033 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2033 2034 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2034 2035 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2035 2036 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2036 2037 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2037 2038 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2038 2039 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2039 2040 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2040 2041 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2041 2042 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2042 2043 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2043

**Policy Case Efficiency** 

**Trend Policy**  **Case Efficiency**

**Trend**

**Design # 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **Total Design #** 

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007 2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008 2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009 2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010 2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011 2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012 **PC1**

2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012 2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013 2014 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2014 2015 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2015 2016 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2016 2017 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2017 2018 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2018 2019 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2019 2020 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2020 2021 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2021 2022 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2022 2023 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2023 2024 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2024 2025 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2025 2026 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2026 2027 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2027 2028 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2028 2029 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2029 2030 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2030 2031 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2031 2032 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2032 2033 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2033 2034 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2034 2035 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2035 2036 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2036 2037 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 20372038 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2038 2039 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2039 2040 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2040 2041 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2041 2042 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2042 2043 #NAME? ############################## 0.0% ########## 2043

**Standards Case Efficiency Trend**  **Standards Case Efficiency Trend** 

**Design # 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **Total Design #** 

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007 2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008 2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009 2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010 2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011 2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012 2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013 2014 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2014 2015 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2015 2016 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2016 2017 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2017 2018 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2018 2019 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2019 2020 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2020 2021 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2021 2022 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2022 2023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2023 2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2024 2025 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2025 2026 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2026 2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2027 2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2028 2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2029 2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2030 2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2031 **PC1**

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2031 2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2032 2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2033 2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2034 2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2035 2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2036 2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2037 2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2038 2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2039 2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2040 2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2041 2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2042 2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 2043

**Rebate Case Efficiency Trend**  **Rebate Case Efficiency Trend** 

**Design # 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **Total Design #** 

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007 2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008 2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009 2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010 2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011 2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012 2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013 2014 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2014 **PC1**2015 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2015 2016 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2016 2017 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2017 2018 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2018 2019 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2019 2020 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2020 2021 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2021 2022 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2022 2023 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2023 2024 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2024 2025 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2025 2026 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2026 2027 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2027 2028 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2028 2029 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2029 2030 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2030 2031 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2031 2032 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2032 2033 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2033 2034 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2034 2035 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2035 2036 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2036 2037 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2037 2038 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2038 2039 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2039 2040 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2040 2041 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2041 2042 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2042 2043 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2043

**Consumer Tax Credit Case Efficiency Trend**  (good only for TSL 3) **Consumer Tax Credit Case Efficiency Trend** 

**Design # 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **Total Design #** 

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007 2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008 **PC1**

2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008 2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009 2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010 2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011 2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012 2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013 2014 45.5% 34.6% 19.2% 0.7% 0.0% 100% 2014 2015 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2015 2016 44.4% 34.6% 19.2% 1.8% 0.0% 100% 2016 2017 44.2% 34.6% 19.2% 2.0% 0.0% 100% 2017 2018 43.8% 34.6% 19.2% 2.4% 0.0% 100% 2018 2019 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2019 2020 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2020 2021 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2021 2022 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2022 2023 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2023 2024 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2024 2025 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2025 2026 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2026 2027 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2027 2028 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2028 2029 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2029 2030 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2030 2031 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2031 2032 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2032 2033 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 20332034 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2034 2035 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2035 2036 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2036 2037 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2037 2038 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2038 2039 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2039 2040 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2040 2041 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2041 2042 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2042 2043 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 2043

**Manufacturer Tax Credit Case Efficiency Trend**  (good only for TSL 3) **Manufacturer Tax Credit Case Efficiency Trend** 

**Design # 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **Total Design #** 

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007 2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008 2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009 2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010 2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011 2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012 2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013 2014 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2014 2015 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2015 2016 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2016 2017 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2017 2018 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2018 2019 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2019 2020 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2020 2021 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2021 2022 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2022 2023 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2023 2024 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2024 2025 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2025 2026 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2026 2027 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2027 **PC1**

2027 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2027 2028 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2028 2029 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2029 2030 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2030 2031 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2031 2032 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2032 2033 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2033 2034 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2034 2035 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2035 2036 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2036 2037 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2037 2038 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2038 2039 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2039 2040 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2040 2041 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2041 2042 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 2042 2043 45% 35% 19% 1% 0% 100% 2043

**Voluntary**

**Efficiency**

**Target Case Efficiency Trend**  (good only for TSL 3) **Voluntary Efficiency** 

**Target Case Efficiency Trend** 

**Design # 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **Total Design #** 

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007 2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008 2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009 2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010 **PC1**2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011 2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012 2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013 2014 31.6% 34.6% 19.2% 14.6% 0.0% 100% 2014 2015 9.5% 34.6% 19.2% 36.7% 0.0% 100% 2015 2016 2.6% 34.6% 19.2% 43.6% 0.0% 100% 2016 2017 2.6% 34.6% 19.2% 43.6% 0.0% 100% 2017 2018 2.6% 34.6% 19.2% 43.6% 0.0% 100% 2018 2019 0.0% 33.8% 19.2% 47.0% 0.0% 100% 2019 2020 0.0% 31.8% 19.2% 49.0% 0.0% 100% 2020 2021 0.0% 28.8% 19.2% 52.0% 0.0% 100% 2021 2022 0.0% 25.8% 19.2% 55.0% 0.0% 100% 2022 2023 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2023 2024 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2024 2025 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2025 2026 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2026 2027 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2027 2028 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2028 2029 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2029 2030 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2030 2031 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2031 2032 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2032 2033 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2033 2034 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2034 2035 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2035 2036 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2036 2037 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2037 2038 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2038 2039 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2039 2040 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2040 2041 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2041 2042 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2042 2043 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 2043

**Early Replacement Case Efficiency**  **Trend** (good only for TSL 3) **Early Replacement Case Efficiency**  **Trend PC1**  **Design # 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **Total Design #** 

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007 2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008 2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009 2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010 2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011 2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012 2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013 2014 36.9% 27.6% 15.3% 20.2% 0.0% 100% 2014 2015 37.8% 28.3% 15.7% 18.1% 0.0% 100% 2015 2016 38.7% 29.0% 16.1% 16.2% 0.0% 100% 2016 2017 39.8% 29.8% 16.6% 13.8% 0.0% 100% 2017 2018 41.3% 30.9% 17.2% 10.7% 0.0% 100% 2018 2019 42.4% 31.8% 17.6% 8.2% 0.0% 100% 2019 2020 43.1% 32.3% 17.9% 6.7% 0.0% 100% 2020 2021 43.4% 32.5% 18.0% 6.1% 0.0% 100% 2021 2022 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2022 2023 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2023 2024 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2024 2025 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2025 2026 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2026 2027 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2027 2028 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2028 2029 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2029 **PC1**2030 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2030 2031 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2031 2032 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2032 2033 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2033 2034 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2034 2035 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2035 2036 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2036 2037 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2037 2038 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2038 2039 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2039 2040 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2040 2041 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2041 2042 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2042 2043 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2043

**Bulk Govt Purchase Case Efficiency Trend**  (good only for TSL 3) **Bulk Govt Purchase Case Efficiency Trend** 

**Design # 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **Total Design #** 

2007 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2007 2008 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2008 2009 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2009 2010 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010 2011 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011 2012 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012 2013 46.2% 34.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013 2014 46.1% 34.6% 19.2% 0.1% 0.0% 100% 2014 2015 46.0% 34.6% 19.2% 0.2% 0.0% 100% 2015 2016 45.9% 34.6% 19.2% 0.3% 0.0% 100% 2016 2017 45.8% 34.6% 19.2% 0.4% 0.0% 100% 2017 2018 45.7% 34.6% 19.2% 0.5% 0.0% 100% 2018 2019 45.6% 34.6% 19.2% 0.6% 0.0% 100% 2019 2020 45.5% 34.6% 19.2% 0.7% 0.0% 100% 2020 2021 45.4% 34.6% 19.2% 0.8% 0.0% 100% 2021 2022 45.3% 34.6% 19.2% 0.9% 0.0% 100% 2022 2023 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2023 **PC1**

2023 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2023 2024 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2024 2025 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2025 2026 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2026 2027 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2027 2028 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2028 2029 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2029 2030 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2030 2031 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2031 2032 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2032 2033 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2033 2034 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2034 2035 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2035 2036 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2036 2037 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2037 2038 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2038 2039 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2039 2040 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2040 2041 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2041 2042 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2042 2043 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 2043

**Base Case Weighted A verage UEC and Price - PC1**  **Standby Hhld**  **Power UEC**  **Price Learning** **Income** kWh/yr kWh/yr $ $2007 2.83 2007 25 2007 $52,162 2007 2008 2.83 2008 25 2008 $52,508 2008 2009 2.83 2009 25 2009 $53,474 2009 2010 2.83 2010 25 2010 $240 1.076 $53,214 2010 2011 2.83 2011 25 2011 $236 1.056 $54,116 2011 2012 2.83 2012 25 2012 $232 1.036 $55,231 2012 2013 2.83 2013 25 2013 $228 1.018 $56,210 2013 2014 2.83 2014 25 2014 $224 1.000 $57,450 2014 2015 2.83 2015 25 2015 $220 0.983 $58,495 2015 2016 2.83 2016 25 2016 $216 0.968 $59,385 2016 2017 2.83 2017 25 2017 $213 0.953 $60,225 2017 2018 2.83 2018 25 2018 $210 0.939 $61,301 2018 2019 2.83 2019 25 2019 $207 0.926 $62,543 2019 2020 2.83 2020 25 2020 $204 0.912 $63,657 2020 2021 2.83 2021 25 2021 $201 0.899 $64,712 2021 2022 2.83 2022 25 2022 $198 0.886 $65,833 2022 2023 2.83 2023 25 2023 $195 0.873 $67,038 2023 2024 2.83 2024 25 2024 $192 0.861 $68,267 2024 2025 2.83 2025 25 2025 $190 0.849 $69,513 2025 2026 2.83 2026 25 2026 $187 0.838 $70,762 2026 2027 2.83 2027 25 2027 $185 0.828 $71,915 2027 2028 2.83 2028 25 2028 $183 0.818 $73,052 2028 2029 2.83 2029 25 2029 $181 0.808 $74,119 2029 2030 2.83 2030 25 2030 $178 0.798 $75,135 2030 2031 2.83 2031 25 2031 $176 0.789 $76,391 2031 2032 2.83 2032 25 2032 $174 0.779 $77,669 2032 2033 2.83 2033 25 2033 $172 0.770 $78,963 2033 2034 2.83 2034 25 2034 $170 0.761 $80,267 2034 2035 2.83 2035 25 2035 $168 0.753 $81,577 2035 2036 2.83 2036 25 2036 $166 0.745 $82,893 2036 2037 2.83 2037 25 2037 $165 0.737 $84,215 2037 2038 2.83 2038 25 2038 $163 0.729 $85,555 2038 2039 2.83 2039 25 2039 $161 0.721 $86,918 2039 2040 2.83 2040 25 2040 $160 0.714 $88,314 2040 2041 2.83 2041 25 2041 $158 0.706 $89,752 2041 2042 2.83 2042 25 2042 $156 0.699 $89,752 2042 $89,752 2043 2.83 2043 25 2043 $155 0.692 $89,752 2043**National Impact Summary (TSL 3, A** **EO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)**

**PC1 PC2**  **Results presented for CSL 3**  **3 Energy**  **Saving**(2014 to 2043) #NAME? #NAME? **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  #NAME? #NAME? **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** #NAME? #NAME? **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** #NAME? #NAME? **NPV** #NAME? #NAME? **CO2 Emission Savings** Physical emission savings #NAME? #NAME? Monetized emission savings At 4.7 2007$/t 5% #NAME? #NAME? At 21.4 2007$/t 3% #NAME? #NAME? At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% #NAME? #NAME? At 64.9 2007$/t 3% #NAME? #NAME? **NOx Emission Savings** Physical emission savings #NAME? #NAME? Monetized emission savings (3% dr) At 450 2010$/t #NAME? #NAME? At 2,537 2010$/t #NAME? #NAME? At 4,623 2010$/t #NAME? #NAME? **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)** #NAME? #NAME?

AEO ChainedNo Learning

$228 $236 $228 $236 CO2 NOx CO2 NOx CO2 NOx $229 $237 15.84 12.88 29.46 23.09 15.84 12.88 $230 $238 22.88 18.61 42.53 33.34 22.88 18.61 $235 $243 31.48 25.60 58.40 45.78 31.48 25.60 48.46 39.42 89.46 70.12 48.46 39.42 TSL 3 Emission Savings Adjustment Current results Pre-ajustment results NEMS results

AEO ChainedNo Learning

$492 $509 $492 $509 $495 $513 $506 $524 $500 $517

**Base Case Efficiency**

**Trend**

**0 1**  **2 3**  **4 Total** 

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% **PC2**100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

**Policy Case Efficiency** 

**Trend**

**0 1**  **2 3**  **4 Total** 

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% **PC2**

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ###########NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ##########

**Standards Case Efficiency Trend** 

**0 1**  **2 3**  **4 Total** 

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% **PC2**

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100% 19 **Rebate Case Efficiency Trend** 

**0 1**  **2 3**  **4 Total** 

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% Standards **Rebate** 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2010 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2011 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2012 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 2013 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2014 #NAME? **PC2**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2015 #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2016 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2017 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2018 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2019 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2020 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2021 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2022 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2023 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2024 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2025 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2026 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2027 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2028 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2029 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2030 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2031 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2032 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2033 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2034 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2035 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2036 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2037 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2038 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2039 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2040 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2041 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2042 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% ########## 2043 #NAME? 2044 **Consumer Tax Credit Case Efficiency Trend**  (good only for TSL 3) 2045

**0 1**  **2 3**  **4 Total** 

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% **PC2**

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 99.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 100% 98.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 100% 97.6% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100%

**Manufacturer Tax Credit Case Efficiency Trend**  (good only for TSL 3)

**0 1**  **2 3**  **4 Total** 

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% **PC2**

98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 100%

**Voluntary**

**Efficiency**

**Target Case Efficiency Trend**  (good only for TSL 3)

**0 1**  **2 3**  **4 Total** 

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% **PC2**100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 85.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 100% 63.3% 0.0% 0.0% 36.7% 0.0% 100% 56.4% 0.0% 0.0% 43.6% 0.0% 100% 56.4% 0.0% 0.0% 43.6% 0.0% 100% 56.4% 0.0% 0.0% 43.6% 0.0% 100% 53.0% 0.0% 0.0% 47.0% 0.0% 100% 51.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.0% 0.0% 100% 48.0% 0.0% 0.0% 52.0% 0.0% 100% 45.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 0.0% 100%

**Early Replacement Case Efficiency**  **Trend** (good only for TSL 3) **PC2 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **Total**

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 79.8% 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 0.0% 100% 81.9% 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 0.0% 100% 83.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 0.0% 100% 86.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 100% 89.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 100% 91.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 100% 93.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 100% 93.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% **PC2**100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

**Bulk Govt Purchase Case Efficiency Trend**  (good only for TSL 3)

**0 1**  **2 3**  **4 Total** 

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 100% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 100% 99.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 100% 99.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 100% 99.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 100% 99.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 100% 99.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 100% 99.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% **PC2**

99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100%

**Standards Case Weighted A verage UEC and Price - PC1**  **TC/Income Standby**  **Power UEC**  **Price Learning**  kWh/yr kWh/yr $0.000 2007 2.83 2007 25 2007

0.000 2008 2.83 2008 25 2008 0.000 2009 2.83 2009 25 2009 0.005 2010 2.83 2010 25 2010 $240 1.076 0.004 2011 2.83 2011 25 2011 $236 1.056 0.004 2012 2.83 2012 25 2012 $232 1.036 0.004 2013 2.83 2013 25 2013 $228 1.018 0.004 2014 #NAME? 2014 #NAME? 2014 #NAME? 1.000 0.004 2015 #NAME? 2015 #NAME? 2015 #NAME? 0.983 0.004 2016 #NAME? 2016 #NAME? 2016 #NAME? 0.968 0.004 2017 #NAME? 2017 #NAME? 2017 #NAME? 0.953 0.003 2018 #NAME? 2018 #NAME? 2018 #NAME? 0.939 0.003 2019 #NAME? 2019 #NAME? 2019 #NAME? 0.926 0.003 2020 #NAME? 2020 #NAME? 2020 #NAME? 0.912 0.003 2021 #NAME? 2021 #NAME? 2021 #NAME? 0.899 0.003 2022 #NAME? 2022 #NAME? 2022 #NAME? 0.886 0.003 2023 #NAME? 2023 #NAME? 2023 #NAME? 0.873 0.003 2024 #NAME? 2024 #NAME? 2024 #NAME? 0.861 0.003 2025 #NAME? 2025 #NAME? 2025 #NAME? 0.849 0.003 2026 #NAME? 2026 #NAME? 2026 #NAME? 0.838 0.003 2027 #NAME? 2027 #NAME? 2027 #NAME? 0.828 0.003 2028 #NAME? 2028 #NAME? 2028 #NAME? 0.818 0.002 2029 #NAME? 2029 #NAME? 2029 #NAME? 0.808 0.002 2030 #NAME? 2030 #NAME? 2030 #NAME? 0.798 0.002 2031 #NAME? 2031 #NAME? 2031 #NAME? 0.789 0.002 2032 #NAME? 2032 #NAME? 2032 #NAME? 0.779 0.002 2033 #NAME? 2033 #NAME? 2033 #NAME? 0.770 0.002 2034 #NAME? 2034 #NAME? 2034 #NAME? 0.761 0.002 2035 #NAME? 2035 #NAME? 2035 #NAME? 0.753 0.002 2036 #NAME? 2036 #NAME? 2036 #NAME? 0.745 0.002 2037 #NAME? 2037 #NAME? 2037 #NAME? 0.737 0.002 2038 #NAME? 2038 #NAME? 2038 #NAME? 0.729 0.002 2039 #NAME? 2039 #NAME? 2039 #NAME? 0.721 0.002 2040 #NAME? 2040 #NAME? 2040 #NAME? 0.714 0.002 2041 #NAME? 2041 #NAME? 2041 #NAME? 0.706 0.002 2042 #NAME? 2042 #NAME? 2042 #NAME? 0.699 0.002 2043 #NAME? 2043 #NAME? 2043 #NAME? 0.692**National Impact Summary (TSL 3, A** **EO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)**

**Total An** **nualized**

**(30 y ears)** 

#NAME?

- quad #NAME?

- quad #NAME? #NAME?billion $ #NAME? #NAME?billion $ #NAME? #NAME?billion $

#NAME?

- Mt

#NAME? #NAME?million $ #NAME? #NAME?million $ #NAME? #NAME?million $ #NAME? #NAME?million $

#NAME?

- kt

#NAME? #NAME?million $ #NAME? #NAME?million $ #NAME? #NAME?million $ #NAME? #NAME?billion $

CO2 NOx 0.538 0.558 0.538 0.558 0.539 0.559 0.542 0.562 0.539 0.559 Adj Factors20 21 22 23 24

**Consumer Tax Credit**

**Manufacturer Tax Credit**

**Voluntary**

**Efficiency**

**Target Early**  **Replacement Bulk Govt Purchase**  0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? **% Units Meeting the Target Level (TSL3)**



### 60%#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? 

### -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

2010 2015 2020 2025**P e** **r c** **e n** **t U** **n i** **t s** **M e** **e t** **i n** **g T** **a r** **g e** **t L** **e v** **e l** **Base Case Weighted A verage UEC and Price - PC2**  **Hhld TC/Income**  **RP Elast Standby**  **Income Drop**  **Power UEC**  $ kWh/yr kWh/yr$52,162 2007 0.000 2007 2007 4.50 2007 39

$52,508 2008 0.000 2008 2008 4.50 2008 39 $53,474 2009 0.000 2009 2009 4.50 2009 39 $53,214 2010 0.005 2010 2010 4.50 2010 39 $54,116 2011 0.004 2011 2011 4.50 2011 39 $55,231 2012 0.004 2012 2012 4.50 2012 39 $56,210 2013 0.004 2013 2013 4.50 2013 39 $57,450 2014 #NAME? 2014 1.00 2014 4.50 2014 39 $58,495 2015 #NAME? 2015 0.78 2015 4.50 2015 39 $59,385 2016 #NAME? 2016 0.63 2016 4.50 2016 39 $60,225 2017 #NAME? 2017 0.54 2017 4.50 2017 39 $61,301 2018 #NAME? 2018 0.46 2018 4.50 2018 39 $62,543 2019 #NAME? 2019 0.44 2019 4.50 2019 39 $63,657 2020 #NAME? 2020 0.42 2020 4.50 2020 39 $64,712 2021 #NAME? 2021 0.39 2021 4.50 2021 39 $65,833 2022 #NAME? 2022 0.37 2022 4.50 2022 39 $67,038 2023 #NAME? 2023 0.35 2023 4.50 2023 39 $68,267 2024 #NAME? 2024 0.35 2024 4.50 2024 39 $69,513 2025 #NAME? 2025 0.35 2025 4.50 2025 39 $70,762 2026 #NAME? 2026 0.35 2026 4.50 2026 39 $71,915 2027 #NAME? 2027 0.34 2027 4.50 2027 39 $73,052 2028 #NAME? 2028 0.34 2028 4.50 2028 39 $74,119 2029 #NAME? 2029 0.34 2029 4.50 2029 39 $75,135 2030 #NAME? 2030 0.34 2030 4.50 2030 39 $76,391 2031 #NAME? 2031 0.34 2031 4.50 2031 39 $77,669 2032 #NAME? 2032 0.34 2032 4.50 2032 39 $78,963 2033 #NAME? 2033 0.33 2033 4.50 2033 39 $80,267 2034 #NAME? 2034 0.33 2034 4.50 2034 39 $81,577 2035 #NAME? 2035 0.33 2035 4.50 2035 39 $82,893 2036 #NAME? 2036 0.33 2036 4.50 2036 39 $84,215 2037 #NAME? 2037 0.33 2037 4.50 2037 39 $85,555 2038 #NAME? 2038 0.33 2038 4.50 2038 39 $86,918 2039 #NAME? 2039 0.33 2039 4.50 2039 39 $88,314 2040 #NAME? 2040 0.33 2040 4.50 2040 39 $89,752 2041 #NAME? 2041 0.33 2041 4.50 2041 39 $89,752 2042 #NAME? 2042 0.33 2042 4.50 2042 39 $89,752 $89,752 2043 #NAME? 2043 0.33 2043 4.50 2043 39

### 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Rebate

Consumer Tax Credit

Manufacturer Tax Credit

Voluntary Efficiency Target**Base Case Weighted A verage UEC and Price - PC2**  **Standards Case Weighted A verage UEC and Price - PC2**  **Hhld TC/Income**  **Standby Price**  **Learning Income**  **Power** $ $ kWh/yr2007 $52,162 2007 0.000 2007 4.50 2007

2008 $52,508 2008 0.000 2008 4.50 2008 2009 $53,474 2009 0.000 2009 4.50 2009 2010 $519 1.076 $53,214 2010 0.010 2010 4.50 2010 2011 $509 1.056 $54,116 2011 0.009 2011 4.50 2011 2012 $500 1.036 $55,231 2012 0.009 2012 4.50 2012 2013 $491 1.018 $56,210 2013 0.009 2013 4.50 2013 2014 $482 1.000 $57,450 2014 0.008 2014 #NAME? 2014 2015 $474 0.983 $58,495 2015 0.008 2015 #NAME? 2015 2016 $467 0.968 $59,385 2016 0.008 2016 #NAME? 2016 2017 $460 0.953 $60,225 2017 0.008 2017 #NAME? 2017 2018 $453 0.939 $61,301 2018 0.007 2018 #NAME? 2018 2019 $446 0.926 $62,543 2019 0.007 2019 #NAME? 2019 2020 $440 0.912 $63,657 2020 0.007 2020 #NAME? 2020 2021 $433 0.899 $64,712 2021 0.007 2021 #NAME? 2021 2022 $427 0.886 $65,833 2022 0.006 2022 #NAME? 2022 2023 $421 0.873 $67,038 2023 0.006 2023 #NAME? 2023 2024 $415 0.861 $68,267 2024 0.006 2024 #NAME? 2024 2025 $410 0.849 $69,513 2025 0.006 2025 #NAME? 2025 2026 $404 0.838 $70,762 2026 0.006 2026 #NAME? 2026 2027 $399 0.828 $71,915 2027 0.006 2027 #NAME? 2027 2028 $394 0.818 $73,052 2028 0.005 2028 #NAME? 2028 2029 $390 0.808 $74,119 2029 0.005 2029 #NAME? 2029 2030 $385 0.798 $75,135 2030 0.005 2030 #NAME? 2030 2031 $380 0.789 $76,391 2031 0.005 2031 #NAME? 2031 2032 $376 0.779 $77,669 2032 0.005 2032 #NAME? 2032 2033 $371 0.770 $78,963 2033 0.005 2033 #NAME? 2033 2034 $367 0.761 $80,267 2034 0.005 2034 #NAME? 2034 2035 $363 0.753 $81,577 2035 0.004 2035 #NAME? 2035 2036 $359 0.745 $82,893 2036 0.004 2036 #NAME? 2036 2037 $355 0.737 $84,215 2037 0.004 2037 #NAME? 2037 2038 $351 0.729 $85,555 2038 0.004 2038 #NAME? 2038 2039 $348 0.721 $86,918 2039 0.004 2039 #NAME? 2039 2040 $344 0.714 $88,314 2040 0.004 2040 #NAME? 2040 2041 $341 0.706 $89,752 2041 0.004 2041 #NAME? 2041 2042 $337 0.699 $89,752 2042 0.004 2042 #NAME? 2042 $89,752 2043 $334 0.692 $89,752 2043 0.004 2043 #NAME? 2043**Standards Case Weighted A verage UEC and Price - PC2**  **Hhld TC/Income**  **RP Elast**

**UEC Price**  **Learning Income**  **Drop** kWh/yr $ $39 2007 $52,162 2007 0.000 2007

39 2008 $52,508 2008 0.000 2008 39 2009 $53,474 2009 0.000 2009 39 2010 $519 1.076 $53,214 2010 0.010 2010 39 2011 $509 1.056 $54,116 2011 0.009 2011 39 2012 $500 1.036 $55,231 2012 0.009 2012 39 2013 $491 1.018 $56,210 2013 0.009 2013 #NAME? 2014 #NAME? 1.000 $57,450 2014 #NAME? 2014 1.00 #NAME? 2015 #NAME? 0.983 $58,495 2015 #NAME? 2015 0.78 #NAME? 2016 #NAME? 0.968 $59,385 2016 #NAME? 2016 0.63 #NAME? 2017 #NAME? 0.953 $60,225 2017 #NAME? 2017 0.54 #NAME? 2018 #NAME? 0.939 $61,301 2018 #NAME? 2018 0.46 #NAME? 2019 #NAME? 0.926 $62,543 2019 #NAME? 2019 0.44 #NAME? 2020 #NAME? 0.912 $63,657 2020 #NAME? 2020 0.42 #NAME? 2021 #NAME? 0.899 $64,712 2021 #NAME? 2021 0.39 #NAME? 2022 #NAME? 0.886 $65,833 2022 #NAME? 2022 0.37 #NAME? 2023 #NAME? 0.873 $67,038 2023 #NAME? 2023 0.35 #NAME? 2024 #NAME? 0.861 $68,267 2024 #NAME? 2024 0.35 #NAME? 2025 #NAME? 0.849 $69,513 2025 #NAME? 2025 0.35 #NAME? 2026 #NAME? 0.838 $70,762 2026 #NAME? 2026 0.35 #NAME? 2027 #NAME? 0.828 $71,915 2027 #NAME? 2027 0.34 #NAME? 2028 #NAME? 0.818 $73,052 2028 #NAME? 2028 0.34 #NAME? 2029 #NAME? 0.808 $74,119 2029 #NAME? 2029 0.34 #NAME? 2030 #NAME? 0.798 $75,135 2030 #NAME? 2030 0.34 #NAME? 2031 #NAME? 0.789 $76,391 2031 #NAME? 2031 0.34 #NAME? 2032 #NAME? 0.779 $77,669 2032 #NAME? 2032 0.34 #NAME? 2033 #NAME? 0.770 $78,963 2033 #NAME? 2033 0.33 #NAME? 2034 #NAME? 0.761 $80,267 2034 #NAME? 2034 0.33 #NAME? 2035 #NAME? 0.753 $81,577 2035 #NAME? 2035 0.33 #NAME? 2036 #NAME? 0.745 $82,893 2036 #NAME? 2036 0.33 #NAME? 2037 #NAME? 0.737 $84,215 2037 #NAME? 2037 0.33 #NAME? 2038 #NAME? 0.729 $85,555 2038 #NAME? 2038 0.33 #NAME? 2039 #NAME? 0.721 $86,918 2039 #NAME? 2039 0.33 #NAME? 2040 #NAME? 0.714 $88,314 2040 #NAME? 2040 0.33 #NAME? 2041 #NAME? 0.706 $89,752 2041 #NAME? 2041 0.33 #NAME? 2042 #NAME? 0.699 $89,752 2042 #NAME? 2042 0.33 $89,752 #NAME? 2043 #NAME? 0.692 $89,752 2043 #NAME? 2043 0.33

## TSL 3 - Reference

Calculated on 5/5/2011 at 10:58:00 AM

NES Standards Rebate Consumer Tax CreditManufacturer

Tax Credit

PC1 0.407 0.029 0.017 0.009 PC2 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.412 0.029 0.017 0.009

NPV (3%dr) Standards Rebate Consumer Tax CreditManufacturer

Tax Credit

PC1 3.578 0.251 0.154 0.085 PC2 0.017 0.001 0.000 0.000 3.595 0.251 0.155 0.085

NPV (7%dr) Standards Rebate Consumer Tax CreditManufacturer

Tax Credit

PC1 1.813 0.127 0.075 0.043 PC2 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.818 0.127 0.075 0.043

## Rebate PC1 PC2

Base Case mkt shr 0.0 0.0 Policy Case mkt shr #NAME? #NAME? Increased mkt shr #NAME? #NAME?

**Consumer Tax Credit** PC1 PC2 Base Case mkt shr 0.0 0.0 Policy Case mkt shr 0.7 0.7 Increased mkt shr 0.7 0.7

**Manufacturer Tax Credit** PC1 PC2 Base Case mkt shr 0.0 0.0 Policy Case mkt shr 1.4 1.4 Increased mkt shr 1.4 1.4

**Voluntary Efficiency Target** PC1 PC2 Base Case mkt shr 0.0 0.0 Policy Case mkt shr 14.6 14.6 Increased mkt shr 14.6 14.6

**Early Replacement** PC1 PC2 Base Case mkt shr 0.0 0.0 Policy Case mkt shr 20.2 20.2 Increased mkt shr 20.2 20.2

**Bulk Govt Purchase** PC1 PC2 Base Case mkt shr 0.0 0.0 Policy Case mkt shr 0.1 0.1 Increased mkt shr 0.1 0.1

**PC1** NES NPV (7%dr)NPV (3%dr) Rebate 0.029 0.127 0.251 Consumer Tax Credit 0.017 0.075 0.154 Manufacturer Tax Credit 0.009 0.043 0.085 Voluntary Efficiency Target 0.311 1.378 2.796 Early Replacement 0.018 0.111 0.162 Bulk Govt Purchase 0.005 0.022 0.047 Standards 0.407 1.813 3.578

**PC2** NES NPV (7%dr)NPV (3%dr) Rebate 0.000 0.000 0.001 Consumer Tax Credit 0.000 0.000 0.000

## Manufacturer Tax Credit 0.000 0.000 0.000

Voluntary Efficiency Target 0.003 0.003 0.009 Early Replacement 0.000 0.000 0.001 Bulk Govt Purchase 0.000 0.000 0.000 Standards 0.005 0.006 0.017

0.03 0.13 0.25 0.02 0.08 0.15 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.31 1.38 2.80 0.02 0.11 0.16 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.41 1.82 3.59

Rebate Consumer Tax Credit Manufacturer Tax Credit

Voluntary Efficiency Target

2014#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2015#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2016#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2017#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2018#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2019#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2020#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2021#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2022#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2023#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2024#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2025#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2026#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2027#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2028#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2029#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2030#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2031#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2032#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2033#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2034#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2035#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2036#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2037#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2038#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2039#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2040#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2041#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2042#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2043#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

## Rebates

B/C ratio without rebate 14.7 1.6 Rebate amount 2.00 2.00 B/C ratio with rebate 1000000.0 1.8 Calc Mkt Barrier Curve No BarriersNo Barriers

## Voluntary

Efficiency Target Early

ReplacementBulk Govt

Purchase

0.311 0.018 0.005 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.314 0.018 0.005

Voluntary Efficiency Target Early

ReplacementBulk Govt

Purchase

2.796 0.162 0.047 0.009 0.001 0.000 2.804 0.163 0.047

Voluntary Efficiency Target Early

ReplacementBulk Govt

Purchase

1.378 0.111 0.022 0.003 0.000 0.000 1.381 0.111 0.022

## Early Replacement Bulk Govt Purchase

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?**Historical Shipment**

**Historical Shipment for PC1**

millions 1972 0.30 1973 0.42 1974 0.67 1975 0.99 1976 1.65 1977 2.04 **As sumptions:**  1978 2.36 Total Microwave Oven Market Share for New homes in 2005 90.3% 1979 2.65 % of Early Replacement 0.0% 1980 3.41 Growth in New Housing saturation 0.0% 1981 4.18 PC2 Shipments 1% 1982 3.85 1983 5.60 1984 8.63 1985 10.28 1986 11.76 1987 11.91 1988 10.38 1989 9.78 1990 7.69 1991 6.62 1992 7.19 1993 7.24 1994 8.57 1995 8.16 1996 8.77 1997 9.14 1998 10.37 1999 11.42 2000 12.64 2001 13.45 2002 13.31 2003 14.27 2004 15.53 2005 13.86 2006 13.69 2007 11.85 2008 11.34 2009 9.63

AHAM Shipments 2003-2010 AHAM Shipments, less 5.5% for exports Estimated Shipments

### Base Case PC1

**Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC1 Base Case**  **Market Segments Annual Shipments** 

**Year New** 

**Shipment Total Stock**  **Retiring Units**  **% Early** 

**Repl. Saturation in** 

**New Houses Repl. Units**  **New Units**  Survival million million million million million **1972** 0.294 0.294 0.000 0.000 **1973** 0.416 0.710 0.000 0.000 **1974** 0.667 1.377 0.000 0.000 **1975** 0.984 2.360 0.000 0.000 **1976** 1.636 3.995 0.001 0.001 **1977** 2.017 6.007 0.005 0.005 **1978** 2.339 8.330 0.016 0.016 **1979** 2.625 10.910 0.045 0.045 **1980** 3.374 14.179 0.106 0.106 **1981** 4.135 18.098 0.216 0.216 **1982** 3.807 21.516 0.389 0.389 **1983** 5.549 26.438 0.627 0.627 **1984** 8.540 34.050 0.928 0.928 **1985** 10.178 42.937 1.291 1.291 **1986** 11.638 52.875 1.700 1.700 **1987** 11.793 62.536 2.132 2.132 **1988** 10.275 70.228 2.583 2.583 **1989** 9.680 76.822 3.087 3.087 **1990** 7.616 80.731 3.707 3.707 **1991** 6.557 82.779 4.509 4.013 **1992** 7.118 84.337 5.560 5.259 **1993** 7.168 84.615 6.890 6.366 **1994** 8.488 84.741 8.362 8.067 **1995** 8.080 83.190 9.631 9.059 **1996** 8.683 81.529 10.344 9.697 **1997** 9.051 80.210 10.370 9.767 **1998** 10.261 80.652 9.820 9.629 0.000 **1999** 11.308 82.988 8.971 0.0% 8.659 0.000 **2000** 12.518 87.355 8.151 0.0% 7.698 0.000 **2001** 13.312 93.050 7.617 0.0% 7.186 0.000 **2002** 13.178 98.735 7.492 0.0% 6.855 0.000 **2003** 14.131 105.150 7.717 0.0% 7.154 0.000 **2004** 15.371 112.397 8.124 0.0% 7.541 0.000 **2005** 13.721 117.518 8.601 0.0% 8.164 0.000 **2006** 13.550 121.917 9.151 0.0% 8.353 0.000 **2007** 11.732 123.812 9.837 0.0% 7.908 0.000 **2008** 11.227 124.369 10.669 0.0% 10.084 0.000 **2009** 9.530 122.334 11.565 0.0% 11.291 0.000 **2010** 13.888 123.819 12.403 0.0% 94.6% 13.022 0.866 **2011** 14.522 125.255 13.086 0.0% 94.6% 13.130 1.392 **2012** 14.909 126.594 13.571 0.0% 94.6% 13.293 1.616 **2013** 15.054 127.814 13.834 0.0% 94.6% 13.378 1.675 **2014** 15.004 129.003 13.815 0.0% 94.6% 13.311 1.693 **2015** 14.763 130.307 13.458 0.0% 94.6% 13.003 1.760 **2016** 14.228 131.675 12.860 0.0% 94.6% 12.400 1.828 **2017** 13.635 133.012 12.298 0.0% 94.6% 11.784 1.850 **2018** 13.430 134.370 12.072 0.0% 94.6% 11.555 1.875 **2019** 13.752 135.758 12.364 0.0% 94.6% 11.847 1.905 **2020** 14.463 137.110 13.111 0.0% 94.6% 12.557 1.906

### 2021 15.187 138.330 13.967 0.0% 94.6% 13.342 1.845

**2022** 15.727 139.511 14.546 0.0% 94.6% 13.929 1.798 **2023** 15.914 140.684 14.741 0.0% 94.6% 14.142 1.772 **2024** 15.850 141.862 14.672 0.0% 94.6% 14.086 1.763 **2025** 15.664 143.067 14.459 0.0% 94.6% 13.889 1.774 **2026** 15.376 144.239 14.204 0.0% 94.6% 13.610 1.767 **2027** 15.139 145.355 14.023 0.0% 94.6% 13.401 1.737 **2028** 15.079 146.405 14.029 0.0% 94.6% 13.386 1.693 **2029** 15.299 147.440 14.264 0.0% 94.6% 13.635 1.664 **2030** 15.729 148.500 14.669 0.0% 94.6% 14.066 1.664 **2031** 16.121 149.511 15.111 0.0% 94.6% 14.480 1.642 **2032** 16.408 150.463 15.456 0.0% 94.6% 14.804 1.603 **2033** 16.593 151.423 15.632 0.0% 94.6% 15.003 1.589 **2034** 16.618 152.398 15.643 0.0% 94.6% 15.027 1.591 **2035** 16.513 153.363 15.548 0.0% 94.6% 14.925 1.589 **2036** 16.387 154.322 15.428 0.0% 94.6% 14.798 1.589 **2037** 16.322 155.281 15.363 0.0% 94.6% 14.733 1.589 **2038** 16.367 156.239 15.408 0.0% 94.6% 14.778 1.589 **2039** 16.535 157.198 15.576 0.0% 94.6% 14.946 1.589 **2040** 16.788 158.157 15.829 0.0% 94.6% 15.199 1.589 **2041** 17.056 159.115 16.098 0.0% 94.6% 15.468 1.589 **2042** 17.274 160.074 16.316 0.0% 94.6% 15.685 1.589 **2043** 17.406 161.033 16.447 0.0% 94.6% 15.817 1.589 **2044** 17.452 161.991 16.493 0.0% 94.6% 15.863 1.589 **2045** 17.440 162.950 16.482 0.0% 94.6% 15.851 1.589 **2046** 17.417 163.909 16.459 0.0% 94.6% 15.829 1.589 **2047** 17.430 164.867 16.471 0.0% 94.6% 15.841 1.589 **2048** 17.506 165.826 16.547 0.0% 94.6% 15.917 1.589 **2049** 17.647 166.785 16.688 0.0% 94.6% 16.058 1.589 **2050** 17.831 167.744 16.872 0.0% 94.6% 16.242 1.589 **2051** 18.022 168.702 17.063 0.0% 94.6% 16.433 1.589 **2052** 18.184 169.661 17.226 0.0% 94.6% 16.595 1.589 **2053** 18.299 170.620 17.340 0.0% 94.6% 16.710 1.589 **2054** 18.366 171.578 17.407 0.0% 94.6% 16.777 1.589 **2053** 18.299 170.620 17.340 0.0% 94.6% 16.710 1.589 **2054** 18.366 171.578 17.407 0.0% 94.6% 16.777 1.589 **2055** 18.403 172.537 17.444 0.0% 94.6% 16.814 1.589 **2056** 18.436 173.496 17.477 0.0% 94.6% 16.847 1.589 **2057** 18.490 174.454 17.531 0.0% 94.6% 16.901 1.589 **2058** 18.579 175.413 17.621 0.0% 94.6% 16.990 1.589 **2059** 18.704 176.372 17.745 0.0% 94.6% 17.115 1.589 **2060** 18.851 177.331 17.892 0.0% 94.6% 17.262 1.589 **2061** 18.999 178.289 18.041 0.0% 94.6% 17.411 1.589 **2062** 19.132 179.248 18.173 0.0% 94.6% 17.543 1.589 **2063** 19.238 180.207 18.279 0.0% 94.6% 17.649 1.589 **2064** 19.318 181.165 18.360 0.0% 94.6% 17.729 1.589 **2065** 19.383 182.124 18.424 0.0% 94.6% 17.794 1.589 **2066** 19.446 183.083 18.488 0.0% 94.6% 17.857 1.589 **2067** 19.522 184.041 18.563 0.0% 94.6% 17.933 1.589 **2068** 19.618 185.000 18.659 0.0% 94.6% 18.029 1.589 **2069** 19.732 185.959 18.773 0.0% 94.6% 18.143 1.589 **2070** 19.858 186.918 18.899 0.0% 94.6% 18.269 1.589

### Annual Shipments **Standby Total Energy**  **(site) Equipment Cost**  **Oper Cost Total**  **Shipment Saturation** **Efficiency Elec**  **Elec per Unit**  **Total Fuel** 

million EF kWh/yr quad $ billion $billion $ 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 5 10 15 20 25Millions



### 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 7.908 110.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.334 10.084 109.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.352 11.291 107.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0103 $0 0.000 0.336 13.888 107.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0104 $240 3.340 0.325 14.522 107.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0105 $236 3.428 0.318 14.909 107.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0106 $232 3.454 0.334 15.054 107.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0107 $228 3.425 0.341 15.004 107.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0108 $224 3.355 0.345 14.763 107.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0109 $220 3.245 0.348 14.228 107.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0110 $216 3.078 0.354 13.635 107.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0111 $213 2.906 0.359 13.430 107.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0113 $210 2.820 0.363 13.752 106.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0114 $207 2.846 0.365 14.463 106.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0115 $204 2.950 0.371 0 5

1980

### 15.187 106.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0116 $201 3.052 0.376

15.727 106.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0117 $198 3.114 0.380 15.914 106.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0118 $195 3.106 0.385 15.850 105.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0119 $192 3.051 0.389 15.664 105.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0120 $190 2.974 0.392 15.376 105.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0121 $187 2.882 0.397 15.139 105.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0122 $185 2.802 0.402 15.079 105.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0123 $183 2.757 0.407 15.299 105.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0124 $181 2.764 0.415 15.729 105.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0124 $178 2.807 0.422 16.121 104.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0125 $176 2.843 0.429 16.408 104.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0126 $174 2.859 0.436 16.593 104.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0127 $172 2.857 0.440 16.618 104.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0128 $170 2.829 0.446 16.513 104.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0129 $168 2.780 0.452 16.387 104.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0129 $166 2.728 0.457 16.322 104.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0130 $165 2.688 0.463 16.367 104.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0131 $163 2.667 0.468 16.535 104.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0132 $161 2.666 0.474 16.788 104.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0133 $160 2.679 0.480 17.056 103.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0133 $158 2.693 0.485 17.274 103.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0134 $156 2.700 0.491 17.406 103.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0135 $155 2.693 0.497 17.452 104.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0136 $155 2.700 0.503 17.440 104.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0137 $155 2.698 0.509 17.417 105.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0137 $155 2.695 0.515 17.430 106.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0138 $155 2.697 0.521 17.506 106.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0139 $155 2.708 0.527 17.647 107.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0140 $155 2.730 0.533 17.831 108.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0141 $155 2.759 0.539 18.022 108.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0141 $155 2.788 0.545 18.184 109.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0142 $155 2.813 0.551 18.299 109.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0143 $155 2.831 0.558 18.366 110.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0144 $155 2.842 0.564 18.299 109.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0143 $155 2.831 0.558 18.366 110.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0144 $155 2.842 0.564 18.403 111.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0145 $155 2.847 0.570 18.436 111.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0145 $155 2.852 0.577 18.490 112.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0146 $155 2.861 0.583 18.579 113.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0147 $155 2.875 0.590 18.704 113.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0148 $155 2.894 0.597 18.851 114.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0149 $155 2.917 0.603 18.999 114.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0149 $155 2.940 0.610 19.132 115.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0150 $155 2.960 0.617 19.238 116.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0151 $155 2.976 0.624 19.318 116.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0152 $155 2.989 0.631 19.383 117.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0153 $155 2.999 0.638 19.446 117.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0153 $155 3.009 0.645 19.522 118.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0154 $155 3.020 0.652 19.618 119.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0155 $155 3.035 0.659 19.732 119.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0156 $155 3.053 0.666 19.858 120.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0157 $155 3.072 0.673**Shipment**

**- Historical and Projected** 

Series1

Series2



### AHAM Saturations Year Million Percent 1982 21.4 25.6 1990 77.2 82.7 2001 94.6 90.7 2005 97.2 89.3 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

### Policy Case PC1

**Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC1 Standards Case**  **Market Segments Annual Shipments** 

**Year New** 

**Shipment Total Stock** **Retiring Units**  **% Early** 

**Repl. Saturation in** 

**New Houses MS Impact** **Repl. Units New**  **Units**

Survival million million % million million **1972** 0.294 **1973** 0.416 **1974** 0.667 **1975** 0.984 **1976** 1.636 **1977** 2.017 **1978** 2.339 **1979** 2.625 **1980** 3.374 14.179 **1981** 4.135 18.098 **1982** 3.807 21.516 **1983** 5.549 26.438 **1984** 8.540 34.050 **1985** 10.178 42.937 **1986** 11.638 52.875 0.000 **1987** 11.793 62.536 2.132 **1988** 10.275 70.228 2.583 **1989** 9.680 76.822 3.087 **1990** 7.616 80.731 3.707 0.0% 0.000 **1991** 6.557 82.779 4.509 0.0% 0.000 **1992** 7.118 84.337 5.560 0.0% 0.000 **1993** 7.168 84.615 6.890 0.0% 0.000 **1994** 8.488 84.741 8.362 0.0% 0.000 **1995** 8.080 83.190 9.631 0.0% 0.000 **1996** 8.683 81.529 10.344 0.0% 0.000 **1997** 9.051 80.210 10.370 0.0% 0.000 **1998** 10.261 80.652 9.820 0.0% 0.000 **1999** 11.308 82.988 8.971 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2000** 12.518 87.355 8.151 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2001** 13.312 93.050 7.617 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2002** 13.178 98.735 7.492 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2003** 14.131 105.150 7.717 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2004** 15.371 112.397 8.124 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2005** 13.721 117.518 8.601 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2006** 13.550 121.917 9.151 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2007** 11.732 123.812 9.837 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.908 0.000 **2008** 11.227 124.369 10.669 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.084 0.000 **2009** 9.530 122.334 11.565 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.291 0.000 **2010** 13.888 123.819 12.403 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.022 0.866 **2011** 14.522 125.255 13.086 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.130 1.392 **2012** 14.909 126.594 13.571 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.293 1.616 **2013** 15.054 127.814 13.834 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.378 1.675 **2014**#NAME? #NAME? 13.815 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2015**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2016**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2017**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2018**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2019**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?

### 2020#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?

**2021**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2022**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2023**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2024**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2025**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2026**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2027**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2028**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2029**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2030**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2031**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2032**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2033**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2034**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2035**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2036**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2037**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2038**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2039**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2040**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2041**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2042**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2043**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2044** 0.000 #NAME? **2045** 0.000 #NAME? **2046** 0.000 #NAME? **2047** 0.000 #NAME? **2048** 0.000 #NAME? **2049** 0.000 #NAME? **2050** 0.000 #NAME? **2051** 0.000 #NAME? **2052** 0.000 #NAME? **2053** 0.000 #NAME? **2052** 0.000 #NAME? **2053** 0.000 #NAME? **2054** 0.000 #NAME? **2055** 0.000 #NAME? **2056** 0.000 #NAME? **2057** 0.000 #NAME? **2058** 0.000 #NAME? **2059** 0.000 #NAME? **2060** 0.000 #NAME? **2061** 0.000 #NAME? **2062** 0.000 #NAME? **2063** 0.000 #NAME? **2064** 0.000 #NAME? **2065** 0.000 #NAME? **2066** 0.000 #NAME? **2067** 0.000 #NAME? **2068** 0.000 #NAME? **2069** 0.000 #NAME? **2070** 0.000 #NAME?

### UEC **Cumulative Total Energy** 

**(site) Incr. Equip. Cost** **Oper Cost delta UEC** 

**Total Shipment** **Saturation Elec**  **Shipment Impact** **Shipment**

**Impact Elec**  **per Unit Total**  **Fuel Elec** 

million kWh/yr million quad $ billion $billion $kWh/yr

24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 0.000 24.6 0.000 0.000 24.6 0.000 0.000 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.000 73.7% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.000 75.5% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.000 77.3% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 79.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 81.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 83.1% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 85.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 87.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 89.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 91.5% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 93.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 96.1% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 98.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 100.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 103.3% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 105.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 108.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 7.908 110.1% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.334 0.00 10.084 109.7% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.352 0.00 11.291 107.3% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0103 $0 0.000 0.336 0.00 13.888 107.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.325 0.00 14.522 107.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0105 $0 0.000 0.318 0.00 14.909 107.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0106 $0 0.000 0.334 0.00 15.054 107.7% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0107 $0 0.000 0.341 0.00 #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?########

### #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?########

#NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########17.452#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########17.440#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########17.417#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########17.430#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########17.506#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########17.647#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########17.831#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########18.022#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########18.184#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########18.299#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########18.184#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########18.299#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########18.366#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########18.403#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########18.436#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########18.490 195.844 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########18.579 196.875 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########18.704 197.953 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########18.851 199.075 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########18.999 200.220 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########19.132 201.361 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########19.238 202.478 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########19.318 203.558 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########19.383 204.607 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########19.446 205.640 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########19.522 206.676 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########19.618 207.731 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########19.732 208.812 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ########19.858 209.917 #NAME?#################NAME?########

### Energy **Saving Energy**  **Savings Oper. Cost** 

**Saving Discount** 

**Factor (Non monetized)** **Discounted**

**Energy Savings**  **Discount**

**Factor (Monetary** 

**) Incr. Equip.**  **Cost Oper. Cost** 

**Saving** quad billion $ quad billion $ billion $ **Discounted Values**

8 10 12 14 16 18Millions **Shipment**

**- Historical and Projected** 



### 0.000 0.000 1.126 0.000 1.126 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.093 0.000 1.093 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.061 0.000 1.061 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.030 0.000 1.030 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.000 #NAME? #NAME? 0.915 #NAME? 0.915 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.888 #NAME? 0.888 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.863 #NAME? 0.863 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.837 #NAME? 0.837 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.813 #NAME? 0.813 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.789 #NAME? 0.789 #NAME? #NAME? 0 2 4 6 8 10

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Millions

Base Case Standards Case

### #NAME? #NAME? 0.766 #NAME? 0.766 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.744 #NAME? 0.744 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.722 #NAME? 0.722 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.701 #NAME? 0.701 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.681 #NAME? 0.681 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.661 #NAME? 0.661 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.642 #NAME? 0.642 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.623 #NAME? 0.623 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.605 #NAME? 0.605 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.587 #NAME? 0.587 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.570 #NAME? 0.570 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.554 #NAME? 0.554 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.538 #NAME? 0.538 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.522 #NAME? 0.522 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.507 #NAME? 0.507 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.492 #NAME? 0.492 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.478 #NAME? 0.478 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.464 #NAME? 0.464 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.450 #NAME? 0.450 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.437 #NAME? 0.437 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.424 #NAME? 0.424 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.412 #NAME? 0.412 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.400 #NAME? 0.400 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.388 #NAME? 0.388 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.377 #NAME? 0.377 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.366 #NAME? 0.366 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.355 #NAME? 0.355 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.345 #NAME? 0.345 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.335 #NAME? 0.335 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.325 #NAME? 0.325 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.316 #NAME? 0.316 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.307 #NAME? 0.307 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.281 #NAME? 0.281 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.272 #NAME? 0.272 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.264 #NAME? 0.264 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.257 #NAME? 0.257 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.249 #NAME? 0.249 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.242 #NAME? 0.242 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.235 #NAME? 0.235 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.228 #NAME? 0.228 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.221 #NAME? 0.221 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.215 #NAME? 0.215 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.209 #NAME? 0.209 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.203 #NAME? 0.203 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.197 #NAME? 0.197 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.191 #NAME? 0.191 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.185 #NAME? 0.185 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.180 #NAME? 0.180 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.175 #NAME? 0.175 #NAME? #NAME?Power Generation 5.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 3.0%

**Year** CO2 Marg.

Emiss. rateNOx Marg.

Emiss. rateCO2 Price

$/ton (1)CO2 Price

$/ton (2)CO2 Price

$/ton (3)CO2 Price

$/ton (4) CO2

reductionCO2 Value

(1) CO2 Value

(2)

Mt/quad kt/quad 2007 $ 2007 $ 2007 $ 2007 $ Mt **1972 1973**  **1974 1975**  **1976 1977**  **1978 1979**  **1980 1981**  **1982 1983**  **1984 1985**  **1986 1987**  **1988 1989**  **1990 1991**  **1992 1993**  **1994 1995**  **1996** million 2010$

**1997 1998**  **1999 2000**  **2001 2002**  **2003 2004**  **2005 2006**  **2007 2008**  **2009 2010**  141.73 111.09 $4.70 $21.40 $35.10 $64.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2011** 141.73 111.09 $4.90 $21.90 $35.70 $66.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2012** 141.73 111.09 $5.10 $22.40 $36.40 $68.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2013** 141.73 111.09 $5.30 $22.80 $37.00 $69.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2014** 141.73 111.09 $5.50 $23.30 $37.70 $71.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2015** 141.73 111.09 $5.70 $23.80 $38.40 $72.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2016** 141.73 111.09 $5.90 $24.30 $39.00 $74.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2017** 141.73 111.09 $6.10 $24.80 $39.70 $76.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2018** 141.73 111.09 $6.30 $25.30 $40.40 $77.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2019** 141.73 111.09 $6.50 $25.80 $41.00 $79.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?**2020** 141.73 111.09 $6.80 $26.30 $41.70 $80.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

**2021** 141.73 111.09 $7.10 $27.00 $42.50 $82.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2022** 141.73 111.09 $7.40 $27.60 $43.40 $84.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2023** 141.73 111.09 $7.70 $28.30 $44.20 $86.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2024** 141.73 111.09 $7.90 $28.90 $45.00 $88.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2025** 141.73 111.09 $8.20 $29.60 $45.90 $90.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2026** 141.73 111.09 $8.50 $30.20 $46.70 $92.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2027** 141.73 111.09 $8.80 $30.90 $47.50 $94.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2028** 141.73 111.09 $9.10 $31.50 $48.40 $96.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2029** 141.73 111.09 $9.40 $32.10 $49.20 $98.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2030** 141.73 111.09 $9.70 $32.80 $50.00 $100.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2031** 141.73 111.09 $10.00 $33.40 $50.90 $102.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2032** 141.73 111.09 $10.30 $34.10 $51.70 $103.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2033** 141.73 111.09 $10.60 $34.70 $52.50 $105.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2034** 141.73 111.09 $10.90 $35.40 $53.40 $107.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2035** 141.73 111.09 $11.20 $36.00 $54.20 $109.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2036** 141.73 111.09 $11.50 $36.70 $55.00 $111.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2037** 141.73 111.09 $11.80 $37.30 $55.90 $113.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2038** 141.73 111.09 $12.10 $37.90 $56.70 $115.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2039** 141.73 111.09 $12.40 $38.60 $57.50 $117.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2040** 141.73 111.09 $12.70 $39.20 $58.40 $119.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2041** 141.73 111.09 $13.00 $39.80 $59.00 $121.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2042** 141.73 111.09 $13.30 $40.40 $59.70 $122.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2043** 141.73 111.09 $13.60 $40.90 $60.40 $124.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2044** 141.73 111.09 $13.90 $41.50 $61.00 $126.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2045** 141.73 111.09 $14.20 $42.10 $61.70 $127.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2046** 141.73 111.09 $14.50 $42.60 $62.40 $129.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2047** 141.73 111.09 $14.80 $43.20 $63.00 $131.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2048** 141.73 111.09 $15.10 $43.80 $63.70 $132.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2049** 141.73 111.09 $15.40 $44.40 $64.40 $134.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2050** 141.73 111.09 $15.70 $44.90 $65.00 $136.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2051** 141.73 111.09 $16.00 $45.50 $65.70 $137.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2052** 141.73 111.09 $16.30 $46.10 $66.40 $139.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2053** 141.73 111.09 $16.70 $46.70 $67.10 $141.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2054** 141.73 111.09 $17.00 $47.30 $67.70 $143.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2055** 141.73 111.09 $17.30 $47.90 $68.40 $145.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2056** 141.73 111.09 $17.70 $48.50 $69.10 $147.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2057** 141.73 111.09 $18.00 $49.10 $69.90 $148.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2058** 141.73 111.09 $18.40 $49.80 $70.60 $150.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2059** 141.73 111.09 $18.80 $50.40 $71.30 $152.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2060** 141.73 111.09 $19.10 $51.00 $72.00 $154.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2061** 141.73 111.09 $19.50 $51.70 $72.80 $156.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2062** 141.73 111.09 $19.90 $52.40 $73.50 $158.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2063** 141.73 111.09 $20.30 $53.00 $74.30 $160.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2064** 141.73 111.09 $20.70 $53.70 $75.00 $162.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2065** 141.73 111.09 $21.10 $54.40 $75.80 $164.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2066** 141.73 111.09 $21.60 $55.10 $76.60 $167.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2067** 141.73 111.09 $22.00 $55.80 $77.40 $169.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2068** 141.73 111.09 $22.40 $56.50 $78.20 $171.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2069** 141.73 111.09 $22.90 $57.30 $79.00 $173.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2070** 141.73 111.09 $23.30 $58.00 $79.80 $175.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2071** 141.73 111.09 $23.80 $58.70 $80.60 $177.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2072** 141.73 111.09 $24.30 $59.50 $81.50 $180.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2073** 141.73 111.09 $24.80 $60.30 $82.30 $182.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2074** 141.73 111.09 $25.30 $61.00 $83.10 $184.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2075** 141.73 111.09 $25.80 $61.80 $84.00 $187.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2076** 141.73 111.09 $26.30 $62.60 $84.90 $189.60 0.00 0.00 0.00**2077** 141.73 111.09 $26.80 $63.40 $85.70 $192.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

**2078** 141.73 111.09 $27.40 $64.20 $86.60 $194.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2079** 141.73 111.09 $27.90 $65.10 $87.50 $197.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2080** 141.73 111.09 $28.50 $65.90 $88.40 $199.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2081** 141.73 111.09 $29.00 $66.70 $89.30 $202.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2082** 141.73 111.09 $29.60 $67.60 $90.20 $204.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2083** 141.73 111.09 $30.20 $68.50 $91.20 $207.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2084** 141.73 111.09 $30.80 $69.30 $92.10 $209.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2085** 141.73 111.09 $31.40 $70.20 $93.10 $212.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2086** 141.73 111.09 $32.10 $71.10 $94.00 $215.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2087** 141.73 111.09 $32.70 $72.10 $95.00 $218.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2088** 141.73 111.09 $33.30 $73.00 $96.00 $220.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2089** 141.73 111.09 $34.00 $73.90 $96.90 $223.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2090** 141.73 111.09 $34.70 $74.90 $97.90 $226.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2091** 141.73 111.09 $35.40 $75.80 $99.00 $229.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2092** 141.73 111.09 $36.10 $76.80 $100.00 $232.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2093** 141.73 111.09 $36.80 $77.80 $101.00 $235.40 0.00 0.00 0.002.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0%

CO2 Value (3) CO2 Value

(4) NOx Price

$/kt (1) NOx Price

$/kt (2) NOx Price

$/kt (3) NOx Price

$/kt (4) NOx Price

$/kt (5) NOx Price

$/kt (6) NOx

reductionNOx Value

(1)

kt million 2010$ million 2010$

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.003.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

NOx Value (2) NOx Value

(3) NOx Value

(4) NOx Value

(5) NOx Value

(6)

million 2010$

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### Base Case PC2

**Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC2 Base Case**  **Market Segments Annual Shipments** 

**Year New** 

**Shipment Total Stock**  **Retiring Units**  **% Early** 

**Repl. Saturation in** 

**New Houses Repl. Units**  **New Units**  Survival million million million million million **1972** 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.000 **1973** 0.004 0.007 0.000 0.000 **1974** 0.007 0.014 0.000 0.000 **1975** 0.010 0.024 0.000 0.000 **1976** 0.017 0.040 0.000 0.000 **1977** 0.020 0.061 0.000 0.000 **1978** 0.024 0.084 0.000 0.000 **1979** 0.027 0.110 0.000 0.000 **1980** 0.034 0.143 0.001 0.001 **1981** 0.042 0.183 0.002 0.002 **1982** 0.038 0.217 0.004 0.004 **1983** 0.056 0.267 0.006 0.006 **1984** 0.086 0.344 0.009 0.009 **1985** 0.103 0.434 0.013 0.013 **1986** 0.118 0.534 0.017 0.017 **1987** 0.119 0.632 0.022 0.022 **1988** 0.104 0.709 0.026 0.026 **1989** 0.098 0.776 0.031 0.031 **1990** 0.077 0.815 0.037 0.037 **1991** 0.066 0.836 0.046 0.041 **1992** 0.072 0.852 0.056 0.053 **1993** 0.072 0.855 0.070 0.064 **1994** 0.086 0.856 0.084 0.081 **1995** 0.082 0.840 0.097 0.092 **1996** 0.088 0.824 0.104 0.098 **1997** 0.091 0.810 0.105 0.099 **1998** 0.104 0.815 0.099 0.097 0.000 **1999** 0.114 0.838 0.091 0.0% 0.087 0.000 **2000** 0.126 0.882 0.082 0.0% 0.078 0.000 **2001** 0.134 0.940 0.077 0.0% 0.073 0.000 **2002** 0.133 0.997 0.076 0.0% 0.069 0.000 **2003** 0.143 1.062 0.078 0.0% 0.072 0.000 **2004** 0.155 1.135 0.082 0.0% 0.076 0.000 **2005** 0.139 1.187 0.087 0.0% 0.082 0.000 **2006** 0.137 1.231 0.092 0.0% 0.084 0.000 **2007** 0.119 1.251 0.099 0.0% 0.080 0.000 **2008** 0.113 1.256 0.108 0.0% 0.102 0.000 **2009** 0.096 1.236 0.117 0.0% 0.114 0.000 **2010** 0.140 1.251 0.125 0.0% 94.6% 0.132 0.009 **2011** 0.147 1.265 0.132 0.0% 94.6% 0.133 0.014 **2012** 0.151 1.279 0.137 0.0% 94.6% 0.134 0.016 **2013** 0.152 1.291 0.140 0.0% 94.6% 0.135 0.017 **2014** 0.152 1.303 0.140 0.0% 94.6% 0.134 0.017 **2015** 0.149 1.316 0.136 0.0% 94.6% 0.131 0.018 **2016** 0.144 1.330 0.130 0.0% 94.6% 0.125 0.018 **2017** 0.138 1.344 0.124 0.0% 94.6% 0.119 0.019 **2018** 0.136 1.357 0.122 0.0% 94.6% 0.117 0.019 **2019** 0.139 1.371 0.125 0.0% 94.6% 0.120 0.019 **2020** 0.146 1.385 0.132 0.0% 94.6% 0.127 0.019

### 2021 0.153 1.397 0.141 0.0% 94.6% 0.135 0.019

**2022** 0.159 1.409 0.147 0.0% 94.6% 0.141 0.018 **2023** 0.161 1.421 0.149 0.0% 94.6% 0.143 0.018 **2024** 0.160 1.433 0.148 0.0% 94.6% 0.142 0.018 **2025** 0.158 1.445 0.146 0.0% 94.6% 0.140 0.018 **2026** 0.155 1.457 0.143 0.0% 94.6% 0.137 0.018 **2027** 0.153 1.468 0.142 0.0% 94.6% 0.135 0.018 **2028** 0.152 1.479 0.142 0.0% 94.6% 0.135 0.017 **2029** 0.155 1.489 0.144 0.0% 94.6% 0.138 0.017 **2030** 0.159 1.500 0.148 0.0% 94.6% 0.142 0.017 **2031** 0.163 1.510 0.153 0.0% 94.6% 0.146 0.017 **2032** 0.166 1.520 0.156 0.0% 94.6% 0.150 0.016 **2033** 0.168 1.530 0.158 0.0% 94.6% 0.152 0.016 **2034** 0.168 1.539 0.158 0.0% 94.6% 0.152 0.016 **2035** 0.167 1.549 0.157 0.0% 94.6% 0.151 0.016 **2036** 0.166 1.559 0.156 0.0% 94.6% 0.149 0.016 **2037** 0.165 1.568 0.155 0.0% 94.6% 0.149 0.016 **2038** 0.165 1.578 0.156 0.0% 94.6% 0.149 0.016 **2039** 0.167 1.588 0.157 0.0% 94.6% 0.151 0.016 **2040** 0.170 1.598 0.160 0.0% 94.6% 0.154 0.016 **2041** 0.172 1.607 0.163 0.0% 94.6% 0.156 0.016 **2042** 0.174 1.617 0.165 0.0% 94.6% 0.158 0.016 **2043** 0.176 1.627 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016 **2044** 0.176 1.636 0.167 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016 **2045** 0.176 1.646 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016 **2046** 0.176 1.656 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016 **2047** 0.176 1.665 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016 **2048** 0.177 1.675 0.167 0.0% 94.6% 0.161 0.016 **2049** 0.178 1.685 0.169 0.0% 94.6% 0.162 0.016 **2050** 0.180 1.694 0.170 0.0% 94.6% 0.164 0.016 **2051** 0.182 1.704 0.172 0.0% 94.6% 0.166 0.016 **2052** 0.184 1.714 0.174 0.0% 94.6% 0.168 0.016 **2053** 0.185 1.723 0.175 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016 **2054** 0.186 1.733 0.176 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016 **2053** 0.185 1.723 0.175 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016 **2054** 0.186 1.733 0.176 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016 **2055** 0.186 1.743 0.176 0.0% 94.6% 0.170 0.016 **2056** 0.186 1.752 0.177 0.0% 94.6% 0.170 0.016 **2057** 0.187 1.762 0.177 0.0% 94.6% 0.171 0.016 **2058** 0.188 1.772 0.178 0.0% 94.6% 0.172 0.016 **2059** 0.189 1.782 0.179 0.0% 94.6% 0.173 0.016 **2060** 0.190 1.791 0.181 0.0% 94.6% 0.174 0.016 **2061** 0.192 1.801 0.182 0.0% 94.6% 0.176 0.016 **2062** 0.193 1.811 0.184 0.0% 94.6% 0.177 0.016 **2063** 0.194 1.820 0.185 0.0% 94.6% 0.178 0.016 **2064** 0.195 1.830 0.185 0.0% 94.6% 0.179 0.016 **2065** 0.196 1.840 0.186 0.0% 94.6% 0.180 0.016 **2066** 0.196 1.849 0.187 0.0% 94.6% 0.180 0.016 **2067** 0.197 1.859 0.188 0.0% 94.6% 0.181 0.016 **2068** 0.198 1.869 0.188 0.0% 94.6% 0.182 0.016 **2069** 0.199 1.878 0.190 0.0% 94.6% 0.183 0.016 **2070** 0.201 1.888 0.191 0.0% 94.6% 0.185 0.016

### Annual Shipments **Standby Total Energy**  **(site) Equipment Cost**  **Oper Cost Total**  **Shipment Saturation** **Efficiency Elec**  **Elec per Unit**  **Total Fuel** 

million EF kWh/yr quad $ billion $billion $ 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 0 0 0 0 0Millions



### 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 0.080 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.102 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.006 0.114 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.140 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $519 0.073 0.005 0.147 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $509 0.075 0.005 0.151 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $500 0.075 0.005 0.152 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $491 0.075 0.005 0.152 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $482 0.073 0.006 0.149 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $474 0.071 0.006 0.144 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $467 0.067 0.006 0.138 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $460 0.063 0.006 0.136 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $453 0.061 0.006 0.139 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $446 0.062 0.006 0.146 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $440 0.064 0.006 0 0

1980

### 0.153 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $433 0.066 0.006

0.159 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $427 0.068 0.006 0.161 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $421 0.068 0.006 0.160 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $415 0.066 0.006 0.158 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $410 0.065 0.006 0.155 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $404 0.063 0.006 0.153 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $399 0.061 0.006 0.152 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $394 0.060 0.007 0.155 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $390 0.060 0.007 0.159 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $385 0.061 0.007 0.163 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $380 0.062 0.007 0.166 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $376 0.062 0.007 0.168 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $371 0.062 0.007 0.168 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $367 0.062 0.007 0.167 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $363 0.061 0.007 0.166 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $359 0.059 0.007 0.165 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $355 0.059 0.007 0.165 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $351 0.058 0.008 0.167 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $348 0.058 0.008 0.170 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $344 0.058 0.008 0.172 1.0% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $341 0.059 0.008 0.174 1.0% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $337 0.059 0.008 0.176 1.0% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008 0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008 0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008 0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008 0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008 0.177 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008 0.178 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.009 0.180 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.060 0.009 0.182 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.061 0.009 0.184 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.061 0.009 0.185 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009 0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009 0.185 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009 0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009 0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009 0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009 0.187 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009 0.188 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.063 0.009 0.189 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.063 0.010 0.190 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.064 0.010 0.192 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.064 0.010 0.193 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.064 0.010 0.194 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.065 0.010 0.195 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.065 0.010 0.196 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.065 0.010 0.196 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.066 0.010 0.197 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.066 0.010 0.198 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.066 0.011 0.199 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0003 $334 0.067 0.011 0.201 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0003 $334 0.067 0.011**Shipment**

**- Historical and Projected** 

Series1

Series2



### AHAM Saturations Year Million Percent 1982 21.4 25.6 1990 77.2 82.7 2001 94.6 90.7 2005 97.2 89.3 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

### Policy Case PC2

**Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC2 Standards Case**  **Market Segments Annual Shipments** 

**Year New** 

**Shipment Total Stock** **Retiring Units**  **% Early** 

**Repl. Saturation in** 

**New Houses MS Impact** **Repl. Units New**  **Units**

Survival million million % million million **1972** 0.003 **1973** 0.004 **1974** 0.007 **1975** 0.010 **1976** 0.017 **1977** 0.020 **1978** 0.024 **1979** 0.027 **1980** 0.034 0.143 **1981** 0.042 0.183 **1982** 0.038 0.217 **1983** 0.056 0.267 **1984** 0.086 0.344 **1985** 0.103 0.434 **1986** 0.118 0.534 0.000 **1987** 0.119 0.632 0.022 **1988** 0.104 0.709 0.026 **1989** 0.098 0.776 0.031 **1990** 0.077 0.815 0.037 0.0% 0.000 **1991** 0.066 0.836 0.046 0.0% 0.000 **1992** 0.072 0.852 0.056 0.0% 0.000 **1993** 0.072 0.855 0.070 0.0% 0.000 **1994** 0.086 0.856 0.084 0.0% 0.000 **1995** 0.082 0.840 0.097 0.0% 0.000 **1996** 0.088 0.824 0.104 0.0% 0.000 **1997** 0.091 0.810 0.105 0.0% 0.000 **1998** 0.104 0.815 0.099 0.0% 0.000 **1999** 0.114 0.838 0.091 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2000** 0.126 0.882 0.082 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2001** 0.134 0.940 0.077 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2002** 0.133 0.997 0.076 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2003** 0.143 1.062 0.078 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2004** 0.155 1.135 0.082 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2005** 0.139 1.187 0.087 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2006** 0.137 1.231 0.092 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2007** 0.119 1.251 0.099 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.080 0.000 **2008** 0.113 1.256 0.108 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.102 0.000 **2009** 0.096 1.236 0.117 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.114 0.000 **2010** 0.140 1.251 0.125 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.132 0.009 **2011** 0.147 1.265 0.132 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.133 0.014 **2012** 0.151 1.279 0.137 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.134 0.016 **2013** 0.152 1.291 0.140 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.135 0.017 **2014**#NAME? #NAME? 0.140 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2015**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2016**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2017**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2018**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2019**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?

### 2020#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?

**2021**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2022**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2023**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2024**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2025**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2026**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2027**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2028**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2029**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2030**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2031**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2032**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2033**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2034**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2035**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2036**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2037**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2038**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2039**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2040**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2041**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2042**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2043**#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? **2044** 0.000 #NAME? **2045** 0.000 #NAME? **2046** 0.000 #NAME? **2047** 0.000 #NAME? **2048** 0.000 #NAME? **2049** 0.000 #NAME? **2050** 0.000 #NAME? **2051** 0.000 #NAME? **2052** 0.000 #NAME? **2053** 0.000 #NAME? **2052** 0.000 #NAME? **2053** 0.000 #NAME? **2054** 0.000 #NAME? **2055** 0.000 #NAME? **2056** 0.000 #NAME? **2057** 0.000 #NAME? **2058** 0.000 #NAME? **2059** 0.000 #NAME? **2060** 0.000 #NAME? **2061** 0.000 #NAME? **2062** 0.000 #NAME? **2063** 0.000 #NAME? **2064** 0.000 #NAME? **2065** 0.000 #NAME? **2066** 0.000 #NAME? **2067** 0.000 #NAME? **2068** 0.000 #NAME? **2069** 0.000 #NAME? **2070** 0.000 #NAME?

### UEC **Cumulative Total Energy** 

**(site) Incr. Equip. Cost** **Oper Cost delta UEC** 

**Total Shipment** **Saturation Elec**  **Shipment Impact** **Shipment**

**Impact Elec**  **per Unit Total**  **Fuel Elec** 

million kWh/yr million quad $ billion $billion $kWh/yr

39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 0.000 39.1 0.000 0.000 39.1 0.000 0.000 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.7% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.080 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00 0.102 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.006 0.00 0.114 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00 0.140 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00 0.147 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00 0.151 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00 0.152 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00 #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?########

### #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?########

#NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## #NAME? #NAME?#########NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.176#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.176#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.176#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.176#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.177#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.178#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.180#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.182#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.184#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.185#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.184#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.185#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.186#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.186#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.186#NAME? #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.187 1.978 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.188 1.989 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.189 2.000 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.190 2.011 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.192 2.022 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.193 2.034 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.194 2.045 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.195 2.056 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.196 2.067 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.196 2.077 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.197 2.088 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.198 2.098 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.199 2.109 #NAME?#################NAME?######## ######## 0.201 2.120 #NAME?#################NAME?########

### Energy **Saving Energy**  **Savings Oper. Cost** 

**Saving Discount** 

**Factor (Non monetized)** **Discounted**

**Energy Savings**  **Discount**

**Factor (Monetary** 

**) Incr. Equip.**  **Cost Oper. Cost** 

**Saving** quad billion $ quad billion $ billion $ **Discounted Values**

0 0 0 0 0 0Millions **Shipment**

**- Historical and Projected** 



### 0.000 0.000 1.126 0.000 1.126 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.093 0.000 1.093 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.061 0.000 1.061 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.030 0.000 1.030 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.000 #NAME? #NAME? 0.915 #NAME? 0.915 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.888 #NAME? 0.888 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.863 #NAME? 0.863 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.837 #NAME? 0.837 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.813 #NAME? 0.813 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.789 #NAME? 0.789 #NAME? #NAME? 0 0 0 0 0 0

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Millions

Base Case Standards Case

### #NAME? #NAME? 0.766 #NAME? 0.766 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? 0.744 #NAME? 0.744 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.722 #NAME? 0.722 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.701 #NAME? 0.701 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.681 #NAME? 0.681 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.661 #NAME? 0.661 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.642 #NAME? 0.642 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.623 #NAME? 0.623 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.605 #NAME? 0.605 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.587 #NAME? 0.587 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.570 #NAME? 0.570 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.554 #NAME? 0.554 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.538 #NAME? 0.538 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.522 #NAME? 0.522 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.507 #NAME? 0.507 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.492 #NAME? 0.492 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.478 #NAME? 0.478 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.464 #NAME? 0.464 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.450 #NAME? 0.450 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.437 #NAME? 0.437 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.424 #NAME? 0.424 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.412 #NAME? 0.412 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.400 #NAME? 0.400 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.388 #NAME? 0.388 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.377 #NAME? 0.377 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.366 #NAME? 0.366 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.355 #NAME? 0.355 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.345 #NAME? 0.345 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.335 #NAME? 0.335 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.325 #NAME? 0.325 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.316 #NAME? 0.316 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.307 #NAME? 0.307 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? 0.298 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? 0.289 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.281 #NAME? 0.281 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.272 #NAME? 0.272 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.264 #NAME? 0.264 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.257 #NAME? 0.257 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.249 #NAME? 0.249 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.242 #NAME? 0.242 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.235 #NAME? 0.235 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.228 #NAME? 0.228 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.221 #NAME? 0.221 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.215 #NAME? 0.215 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.209 #NAME? 0.209 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.203 #NAME? 0.203 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.197 #NAME? 0.197 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.191 #NAME? 0.191 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.185 #NAME? 0.185 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.180 #NAME? 0.180 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.175 #NAME? 0.175 #NAME? #NAME?Power Generation 5.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 3.0%

**Year** CO2 Marg.

Emiss. rateNOx Marg.

Emiss. rateCO2 Price

$/ton (1)CO2 Price

$/ton (2)CO2 Price

$/ton (3)CO2 Price

$/ton (4) CO2

reductionCO2 Value

(1) CO2 Value

(2)

Mt/quad kt/quad 2007 $ 2007 $ 2007 $ 2007 $ Mt **1972 1973**  **1974 1975**  **1976 1977**  **1978 1979**  **1980 1981**  **1982 1983**  **1984 1985**  **1986 1987**  **1988 1989**  **1990 1991**  **1992 1993**  **1994 1995**  **1996** million 2010$

**1997 1998**  **1999 2000**  **2001 2002**  **2003 2004**  **2005 2006**  **2007 2008**  **2009 2010**  141.73 111.09 $4.70 $21.40 $35.10 $64.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2011** 141.73 111.09 $4.90 $21.90 $35.70 $66.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2012** 141.73 111.09 $5.10 $22.40 $36.40 $68.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2013** 141.73 111.09 $5.30 $22.80 $37.00 $69.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2014** 141.73 111.09 $5.50 $23.30 $37.70 $71.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2015** 141.73 111.09 $5.70 $23.80 $38.40 $72.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2016** 141.73 111.09 $5.90 $24.30 $39.00 $74.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2017** 141.73 111.09 $6.10 $24.80 $39.70 $76.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2018** 141.73 111.09 $6.30 $25.30 $40.40 $77.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2019** 141.73 111.09 $6.50 $25.80 $41.00 $79.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?**2020** 141.73 111.09 $6.80 $26.30 $41.70 $80.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

**2021** 141.73 111.09 $7.10 $27.00 $42.50 $82.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2022** 141.73 111.09 $7.40 $27.60 $43.40 $84.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2023** 141.73 111.09 $7.70 $28.30 $44.20 $86.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2024** 141.73 111.09 $7.90 $28.90 $45.00 $88.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2025** 141.73 111.09 $8.20 $29.60 $45.90 $90.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2026** 141.73 111.09 $8.50 $30.20 $46.70 $92.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2027** 141.73 111.09 $8.80 $30.90 $47.50 $94.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2028** 141.73 111.09 $9.10 $31.50 $48.40 $96.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2029** 141.73 111.09 $9.40 $32.10 $49.20 $98.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2030** 141.73 111.09 $9.70 $32.80 $50.00 $100.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2031** 141.73 111.09 $10.00 $33.40 $50.90 $102.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2032** 141.73 111.09 $10.30 $34.10 $51.70 $103.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2033** 141.73 111.09 $10.60 $34.70 $52.50 $105.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2034** 141.73 111.09 $10.90 $35.40 $53.40 $107.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2035** 141.73 111.09 $11.20 $36.00 $54.20 $109.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2036** 141.73 111.09 $11.50 $36.70 $55.00 $111.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2037** 141.73 111.09 $11.80 $37.30 $55.90 $113.60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2038** 141.73 111.09 $12.10 $37.90 $56.70 $115.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2039** 141.73 111.09 $12.40 $38.60 $57.50 $117.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2040** 141.73 111.09 $12.70 $39.20 $58.40 $119.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2041** 141.73 111.09 $13.00 $39.80 $59.00 $121.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2042** 141.73 111.09 $13.30 $40.40 $59.70 $122.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2043** 141.73 111.09 $13.60 $40.90 $60.40 $124.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2044** 141.73 111.09 $13.90 $41.50 $61.00 $126.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2045** 141.73 111.09 $14.20 $42.10 $61.70 $127.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2046** 141.73 111.09 $14.50 $42.60 $62.40 $129.40 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2047** 141.73 111.09 $14.80 $43.20 $63.00 $131.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2048** 141.73 111.09 $15.10 $43.80 $63.70 $132.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2049** 141.73 111.09 $15.40 $44.40 $64.40 $134.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2050** 141.73 111.09 $15.70 $44.90 $65.00 $136.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2051** 141.73 111.09 $16.00 $45.50 $65.70 $137.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2052** 141.73 111.09 $16.30 $46.10 $66.40 $139.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2053** 141.73 111.09 $16.70 $46.70 $67.10 $141.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2054** 141.73 111.09 $17.00 $47.30 $67.70 $143.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2055** 141.73 111.09 $17.30 $47.90 $68.40 $145.20 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2056** 141.73 111.09 $17.70 $48.50 $69.10 $147.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2057** 141.73 111.09 $18.00 $49.10 $69.90 $148.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2058** 141.73 111.09 $18.40 $49.80 $70.60 $150.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2059** 141.73 111.09 $18.80 $50.40 $71.30 $152.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2060** 141.73 111.09 $19.10 $51.00 $72.00 $154.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2061** 141.73 111.09 $19.50 $51.70 $72.80 $156.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2062** 141.73 111.09 $19.90 $52.40 $73.50 $158.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2063** 141.73 111.09 $20.30 $53.00 $74.30 $160.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2064** 141.73 111.09 $20.70 $53.70 $75.00 $162.80 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2065** 141.73 111.09 $21.10 $54.40 $75.80 $164.90 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2066** 141.73 111.09 $21.60 $55.10 $76.60 $167.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2067** 141.73 111.09 $22.00 $55.80 $77.40 $169.10 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2068** 141.73 111.09 $22.40 $56.50 $78.20 $171.30 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2069** 141.73 111.09 $22.90 $57.30 $79.00 $173.50 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2070** 141.73 111.09 $23.30 $58.00 $79.80 $175.70 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? **2071** 141.73 111.09 $23.80 $58.70 $80.60 $177.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2072** 141.73 111.09 $24.30 $59.50 $81.50 $180.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2073** 141.73 111.09 $24.80 $60.30 $82.30 $182.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2074** 141.73 111.09 $25.30 $61.00 $83.10 $184.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2075** 141.73 111.09 $25.80 $61.80 $84.00 $187.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2076** 141.73 111.09 $26.30 $62.60 $84.90 $189.60 0.00 0.00 0.00**2077** 141.73 111.09 $26.80 $63.40 $85.70 $192.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

**2078** 141.73 111.09 $27.40 $64.20 $86.60 $194.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2079** 141.73 111.09 $27.90 $65.10 $87.50 $197.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2080** 141.73 111.09 $28.50 $65.90 $88.40 $199.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2081** 141.73 111.09 $29.00 $66.70 $89.30 $202.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2082** 141.73 111.09 $29.60 $67.60 $90.20 $204.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2083** 141.73 111.09 $30.20 $68.50 $91.20 $207.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2084** 141.73 111.09 $30.80 $69.30 $92.10 $209.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2085** 141.73 111.09 $31.40 $70.20 $93.10 $212.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2086** 141.73 111.09 $32.10 $71.10 $94.00 $215.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2087** 141.73 111.09 $32.70 $72.10 $95.00 $218.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2088** 141.73 111.09 $33.30 $73.00 $96.00 $220.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2089** 141.73 111.09 $34.00 $73.90 $96.90 $223.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2090** 141.73 111.09 $34.70 $74.90 $97.90 $226.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2091** 141.73 111.09 $35.40 $75.80 $99.00 $229.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2092** 141.73 111.09 $36.10 $76.80 $100.00 $232.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2093** 141.73 111.09 $36.80 $77.80 $101.00 $235.40 0.00 0.00 0.002.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0%

CO2 Value (3) CO2 Value

(4) NOx Price

$/kt (1) NOx Price

$/kt (2) NOx Price

$/kt (3) NOx Price

$/kt (4) NOx Price

$/kt (5) NOx Price

$/kt (6) NOx

reductionNOx Value

(1)

kt million 2010$ million 2010$

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?#NAME? $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 #NAME? #NAME? 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.003.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

NOx Value (2) NOx Value

(3) NOx Value

(4) NOx Value

(5) NOx Value

(6)

million 2010$

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?

#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? #NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME? 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

### Consumer Rebates 0 1 2 3 4 2012 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2013 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2014 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2015 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2016 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2017 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2018 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2019 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2020 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2021 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2022 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2023 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2024 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2025 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2026 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2027 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2028 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2029 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2030 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2031 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2032 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2033 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2034 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2035 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2036 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2037 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2038 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2039 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2040 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2041 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2042 36.3% 34.6% 19.2% 9.9% 0.0% 100.0%

Consumer Tax Credits

0 1 2 3 4 2012 45.5% 34.6% 19.2% 0.7% 0.0% 100.0% 2013 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2014 44.4% 34.6% 19.2% 1.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2015 44.2% 34.6% 19.2% 2.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2016 43.8% 34.6% 19.2% 2.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2017 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2018 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2019 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2020 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2021 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2022 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2023 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2024 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2025 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2026 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2027 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2028 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2029 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2030 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2031 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2032 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2033 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2034 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2035 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

### 2036 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2037 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2038 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2039 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2040 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2041 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2042 43.4% 34.6% 19.2% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0%

Manufacturer Tax Credits

0 1 2 3 4 2012 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2013 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2014 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2015 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2016 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2017 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2018 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2019 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2020 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2021 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2022 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2023 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2024 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2025 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2026 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2027 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2028 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2029 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2030 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2031 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2032 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2033 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2034 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2035 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2036 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2037 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2038 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2039 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2040 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2041 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2042 44.8% 34.6% 19.2% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0%

Bulk Govt Purchases

0 1 2 3 4 2012 46.1% 34.6% 19.2% 0.1% 0.0% 100.0% 2013 46.0% 34.6% 19.2% 0.2% 0.0% 100.0% 2014 45.9% 34.6% 19.2% 0.3% 0.0% 100.0% 2015 45.8% 34.6% 19.2% 0.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2016 45.7% 34.6% 19.2% 0.5% 0.0% 100.0% 2017 45.6% 34.6% 19.2% 0.6% 0.0% 100.0% 2018 45.5% 34.6% 19.2% 0.7% 0.0% 100.0% 2019 45.4% 34.6% 19.2% 0.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2020 45.3% 34.6% 19.2% 0.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2021 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2022 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2023 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2024 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2025 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2026 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2027 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2028 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

### 2029 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2030 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2031 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2032 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2033 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2034 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2035 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2036 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2037 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2038 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2039 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2040 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2041 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2042 45.2% 34.6% 19.2% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Voluntary EE Targets

0 1 2 3 4 2012 31.6% 34.6% 19.2% 14.6% 0.0% 100.0% 2013 9.5% 34.6% 19.2% 36.7% 0.0% 100.0% 2014 2.6% 34.6% 19.2% 43.6% 0.0% 100.0% 2015 2.6% 34.6% 19.2% 43.6% 0.0% 100.0% 2016 2.6% 34.6% 19.2% 43.6% 0.0% 100.0% 2017 0.0% 33.8% 19.2% 47.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2018 0.0% 31.8% 19.2% 49.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2019 0.0% 28.8% 19.2% 52.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2020 0.0% 25.8% 19.2% 55.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2021 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2022 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2023 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2024 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2025 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2026 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2027 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2028 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2029 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2030 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2031 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2032 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2033 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2034 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2035 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2036 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2037 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2038 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2039 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2040 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2041 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2042 0.0% 22.8% 19.2% 58.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Early Replacement

0 1 2 3 4 2012 26.0% 34.6% 19.2% 20.2% 0.0% 100.0% 20.2% 2013 7.9% 34.6% 19.2% 38.3% 0.0% 100.0% 18.1% 2014 0.0% 26.3% 19.2% 54.5% 0.0% 100.0% 16.2% 2015 0.0% 12.5% 19.2% 68.3% 0.0% 100.0% 13.8% 2016 0.0% 1.9% 19.2% 78.9% 0.0% 100.0% 10.7% 2017 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 87.1% 0.0% 100.0% 8.2% 2018 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 93.8% 0.0% 100.0% 6.7% 2019 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 6.1% 2020 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2021 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

### 2022 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2023 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2025 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2026 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

### Rebate Value **2.00**

Product Class PC1 Standard @ Efficiency Level3

No Rebate With Rebate Designs at or above CSL BC Ratio 14.7 1000000.0 Market Share #NAME? #NAME? Mkt shrIncrease #NAME? #NAME? Estimated mkt barrier level #NAME? #NAME?

Energy CostMnt+Rpr Cost Total 0 Baseline 34.8 37.86 0.00 37.86 1 1 17.4 18.93 0.00 18.93 -18.93 2 2 13.0 14.20 0.00 14.20 -23.66 3 3 8.7 9.47 0.00 9.47 -28.40 4 4 0.2 0.19 0.00 0.19 -37.67 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 UEC

(kWh) Operating Costs Design Incremental

0 1 2.5 4 5 No Low Moderate High xHigh

r 1 0.5 0.25 0.25 0.25 Max 1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Mid 10 2 0.3 0.1 0.04 Fit 1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100**P e** **n e** **t r** **a t** **i o** **n R** **a t** **e**

**Benefit/Cost Ratio**#NAME? No Rebate With Rebate

### Design No Rebate With Rebate No Rebate With Rebate

223.27 0.0 0.0 223.66 0.39 0.00 48.1 1000000.0 224.15 0.88 0.00 26.9 1000000.0 225.20 1.93 0.00 14.7 1000000.0 230.00 6.73 4.73 5.6 8.0 Installed Cost BC Ratio Incremental

0.000000

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Estimated #NAME? 0.001#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.1#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.2#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.3#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.4#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.5#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.6#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.7#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.8#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.9#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 3#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 4#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 5#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 6#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 7#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

### 8#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 9#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 10#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 12#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 14#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 16#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 18#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 20#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 22#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 24#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 26#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 28#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 30#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 32#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 34#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 36#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 38#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 40#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 42#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 44#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 46#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 48#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 50#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 55#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 60#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 65#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 70#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 75#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 80#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 85#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 90#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 95#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 100#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

### Rebate Value **2.00**

Product Class PC2 Standard @ Efficiency Level3

No Rebate With Rebate Designs at or above CSL BC Ratio 1.6 1.8 Market Share #NAME? #NAME? Mkt shrIncrease #NAME? #NAME? Estimated mkt barrier level #NAME? #NAME?

Energy CostMnt+Rpr Cost Total 0 Baseline 39.1 42.59 0.00 42.59 1 1 32.1 35.02 0.00 35.02 -7.57 2 2 23.5 25.56 0.00 25.56 -17.04 3 3 19.1 20.82 0.00 20.82 -21.77 4 4 0.3 0.38 0.00 0.38 -42.22 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 UEC

(kWh) Operating Costs Design Incremental

0 1 2.5 4 5 No Low Moderate High xHigh

r 1 0.5 0.25 0.25 0.25 Max 1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Mid 10 2 0.3 0.1 0.04 Fit 1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100**P e** **n e** **t r** **a t** **i o** **n R** **a t** **e**

**Benefit/Cost Ratio**#NAME? No Rebate With Rebate

### Design No Rebate With Rebate No Rebate With Rebate

482.17 0.0 0.0 482.17 0.00 0.00 1000000.0 1000000.0 485.54 3.37 1.37 5.1 12.4 496.05 13.88 11.88 1.6 1.8 489.79 7.63 5.63 5.5 7.5 Installed Cost BC Ratio Incremental

0.000000

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Estimated #NAME? 0.001#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.1#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.2#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.3#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.4#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.5#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.6#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.7#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.8#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.9#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 3#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 4#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 5#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 6#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 7#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

### 8#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 9#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 10#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 12#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 14#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 16#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 18#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 20#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 22#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 24#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 26#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 28#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 30#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 32#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 34#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 36#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 38#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 40#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 42#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 44#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 46#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 48#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 50#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 55#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 60#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 65#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 70#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 75#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 80#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 85#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 90#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 95#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 100#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

### Rebate Value **2.00**

Product Class PC1 Standard @ Efficiency Level3

No Rebate With Rebate Designs at or above CSL BC Ratio 1000000.0 1000000.0 Market Share 0.0%#NAME? Mkt shr Increase #NAME? #NAME? Estimated mkt barrier level #NAME? #NAME?

Energy CostMnt+Rpr Cost Total 0 Baseline 34.750 37.86 0.00 37.86 1 1 17.375 18.93 0.00 18.93 -18.93 2 2 13.031 14.20 0.00 14.20 -23.66 3 3 8.688 9.47 0.00 9.47 -28.40 4 4 0.174 0.19 0.00 0.19 -37.67 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 UEC

(kWh) Operating Costs Design Incremental

0 1 2.5 4 5 No Low Moderate High xHigh

r 1 0.5 0.25 0.25 0.25 Max 1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Mid 10 2 0.3 0.1 0.04 Fit 1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100**P e** **n e** **t r** **a t** **i o** **n R** **a t** **e**

**Benefit/Cost Ratio**#NAME? Estimated #NAME? No Rebate With Rebate

### Design No Rebate With Rebate No Rebate With Rebate

223.27 0.0 0.0 223.66 0.39 0.00 48.1 1000000.0 224.15 0.88 0.00 26.9 1000000.0 225.20 1.93 0.00 14.7 1000000.0 230.00 6.73 4.73 5.6 8.0 Installed Cost BC Ratio Incremental

0.000000

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Estimated #NAME? 0.001#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.1#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.2#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.3#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.4#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.5#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.6#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.7#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.8#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.9#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 3#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 4#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 5#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 6#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 7#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

### 8#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 9#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 10#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 12#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 14#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 16#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 18#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 20#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 22#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 24#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 26#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 28#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 30#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 32#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 34#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 36#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 38#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 40#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 42#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 44#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 46#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 48#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 50#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 55#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 60#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 65#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 70#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 75#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 80#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 85#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 90#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 95#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 100#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?**Learning Rates**

**Learning Rates Rescaled**  Year Default Low High MWO-OnlyAEO ChainedNo Learning Year

28.9% 19.2% 37.0% 39.6% 2010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 2010 2011 0.981 0.986 0.979 0.968 0.989 1.000 2011 2012 0.963 0.971 0.958 0.938 0.978 1.000 2012 2013 0.946 0.958 0.939 0.909 0.964 1.000 2013 2014 0.930 0.945 0.920 0.883 0.949 1.000 2014 2015 0.914 0.933 0.903 0.859 0.932 1.000 2015 2016 0.900 0.921 0.886 0.837 0.916 1.000 2016 2017 0.886 0.910 0.871 0.817 0.899 1.000 2017 2018 0.873 0.900 0.857 0.799 0.883 1.000 2018 2019 0.861 0.890 0.842 0.781 0.866 1.000 2019 2020 0.848 0.880 0.828 0.763 0.848 1.000 2020 2021 0.836 0.870 0.814 0.745 0.829 1.000 2021 2022 0.823 0.860 0.801 0.728 0.810 1.000 2022 2023 0.812 0.850 0.788 0.711 0.791 1.000 2023 2024 0.800 0.841 0.775 0.696 0.772 1.000 2024 2025 0.790 0.832 0.763 0.681 0.754 1.000 2025 2026 0.779 0.824 0.752 0.667 0.736 1.000 2026 2027 0.770 0.816 0.741 0.654 0.719 1.000 2027 2028 0.760 0.808 0.731 0.642 0.701 1.000 2028 2029 0.751 0.800 0.721 0.630 0.684 1.000 2029 2030 0.742 0.793 0.711 0.618 0.667 1.000 2030 2031 0.733 0.785 0.702 0.607 0.651 1.000 2031 2032 0.725 0.778 0.692 0.596 0.634 1.000 2032 2033 0.716 0.771 0.683 0.585 0.619 1.000 2033 2034 0.708 0.764 0.674 0.575 0.604 1.000 2034 2035 0.700 0.757 0.665 0.565 0.589 1.000 2035 2036 0.692 0.751 0.657 0.555 0.575 1.000 2036 2037 0.685 0.745 0.649 0.546 0.561 1.000 2037 2038 0.678 0.739 0.641 0.537 0.547 1.000 2038 2039 0.670 0.733 0.633 0.529 0.534 1.000 2039 2040 0.663 0.727 0.626 0.521 0.521 1.000 2040 2041 0.657 0.721 0.618 0.513 0.508 1.000 2041 2042 0.650 0.715 0.611 0.505 0.496 1.000 2042 2043 0.643 0.709 0.604 0.497 0.484 1.000 2043

**Price Scaling Factors** Low 1.02 High 0.99 MWO-Only 0.95 AEO Chained 1.02Default Low High MWO-OnlyAEO ChainedNo Learning

28.9% 19.2% 37.0% 39.6% 1.076 1.058 1.087 1.132 1.054 1.000 1.056 1.043 1.064 1.096 1.043 1.000 1.036 1.028 1.042 1.062 1.031 1.000 1.018 1.014 1.020 1.030 1.017 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.983 0.987 0.981 0.973 0.983 1.000 0.968 0.975 0.963 0.948 0.965 1.000 0.953 0.963 0.947 0.925 0.948 1.000 0.939 0.952 0.931 0.904 0.930 1.000 0.926 0.942 0.916 0.884 0.913 1.000 0.912 0.931 0.900 0.864 0.894 1.000 0.899 0.920 0.885 0.844 0.874 1.000 0.886 0.910 0.870 0.824 0.854 1.000 0.873 0.900 0.856 0.806 0.834 1.000 0.861 0.890 0.843 0.788 0.814 1.000 0.849 0.881 0.830 0.771 0.795 1.000 0.838 0.872 0.817 0.756 0.776 1.000 0.828 0.863 0.806 0.741 0.758 1.000 0.818 0.855 0.795 0.727 0.739 1.000 0.808 0.847 0.784 0.714 0.721 1.000 0.798 0.839 0.773 0.700 0.703 1.000 0.789 0.831 0.762 0.687 0.686 1.000 0.779 0.824 0.752 0.675 0.669 1.000 0.770 0.816 0.742 0.662 0.652 1.000 0.761 0.809 0.732 0.651 0.637 1.000 0.753 0.802 0.723 0.639 0.621 1.000 0.745 0.795 0.714 0.629 0.606 1.000 0.737 0.788 0.705 0.619 0.591 1.000 0.729 0.782 0.697 0.609 0.577 1.000 0.721 0.775 0.688 0.599 0.563 1.000 0.714 0.769 0.680 0.590 0.549 1.000 0.706 0.763 0.672 0.580 0.536 1.000 0.699 0.757 0.664 0.571 0.523 1.000 0.692 0.751 0.657 0.563 0.510 1.000**Housing Projections**

**Source: A nnual Energy**  **Outlook 2010**

**Projected Total Housing Stock (millions) Projected Housing Starts (millions)** 

**Reference High**  **Low Reference**  **High Low** 

1990 93.99 93.99 93.99 1990 1.38 1.38 1.38 1991 94.87 94.87 94.87 1991 1.18 1.18 1.18 1992 95.75 95.75 95.75 1992 1.41 1.41 1.41 1993 96.63 96.63 96.63 1993 1.54 1.54 1.54 1994 97.88 97.88 97.88 1994 1.76 1.76 1.76 1995 99.06 99.06 99.06 1995 1.69 1.69 1.69 1996 100.10 100.10 100.10 1996 1.82 1.82 1.82 1997 101.31 101.31 101.31 1997 1.49 1.49 1.49 1998 102.61 102.61 102.61 1998 1.54 1.54 1.54 1999 103.83 103.83 103.83 1999 1.64 1.64 1.64 2000 105.01 105.01 105.01 2000 1.70 1.70 1.70 2001 106.27 106.27 106.27 2001 1.72 1.72 1.72 2002 107.35 107.35 107.35 2002 1.75 1.75 1.75 2003 108.53 108.53 108.53 2003 1.79 1.79 1.79 2004 109.73 109.73 109.73 2004 1.80 1.80 1.80 2005 111.09 111.09 111.09 2005 2.22 2.22 2.22 2006 112.50 112.50 112.50 2006 1.92 1.92 1.92 2007 112.48 112.48 112.48 2007 1.44 1.44 1.44 2008 113.33 113.33 113.33 2008 0.98 0.98 0.98 2009 114.03 114.03 114.03 2009 0.61 0.61 0.61 2010 115.26 115.26 115.26 2010 0.92 0.92 0.92 2011 116.23 116.48 116.01 2011 1.49 1.73 1.26 2012 117.44 117.97 116.94 2012 1.72 2.01 1.44 2013 118.70 119.54 117.91 2013 1.79 2.10 1.49 2014 119.98 121.15 118.88 2014 1.81 2.14 1.50 2015 121.33 122.86 119.89 2015 1.88 2.25 1.54 2016 122.74 124.66 120.93 2016 1.95 2.34 1.57 2017 124.17 126.47 121.99 2017 1.97 2.36 1.59 2018 125.63 128.32 123.06 2018 2.00 2.41 1.62 2019 127.11 130.20 124.15 2019 2.03 2.44 1.63 2020 128.58 132.09 125.22 2020 2.03 2.46 1.62 2021 129.98 133.91 126.23 2021 1.97 2.41 1.56 2022 131.33 135.70 127.17 2022 1.92 2.38 1.50 2023 132.64 137.47 128.05 2023 1.89 2.36 1.45 2024 133.94 139.23 128.91 2024 1.88 2.36 1.42 2025 135.25 141.02 129.74 2025 1.89 2.40 1.40 2026 136.54 142.83 130.55 2026 1.89 2.43 1.38 2027 137.80 144.62 131.30 2027 1.85 2.41 1.33 2028 139.01 146.36 132.00 2028 1.81 2.37 1.27 2029 140.18 148.07 132.66 2029 1.78 2.35 1.23 2030 141.34 149.78 133.30 2030 1.78 2.35 1.22 2031 142.48 151.46 133.90 2031 1.75 2.32 1.18 2032 143.58 153.08 134.45 2032 1.71 2.27 1.13 2033 144.65 154.67 134.97 2033 1.70 2.25 1.11 2034 145.73 156.24 135.48 2034 1.70 2.24 1.09 2035 146.79 157.81 135.96 2035 1.70 2.24 1.07 2036 147.85 159.36 136.42 2036 1.70 2.24 1.07 2037 148.91 160.92 136.89 2037 1.70 2.24 1.07 2038 149.97 162.47 137.35 2038 1.70 2.24 1.07 2039 151.03 164.03 137.81 2039 1.70 2.24 1.07 2040 152.09 165.58 138.27 2040 1.70 2.24 1.07 2041 153.15 167.14 138.73 2041 1.70 2.24 1.07 2042 154.21 168.69 139.19 2042 1.70 2.24 1.07 2043 155.27 170.25 139.65 2043 1.70 2.24 1.07**Demolitions (Calculated) Reference**  **High Low** 

1990

- - - 1991 0.50 0.50 0.50 1992 0.30 0.30 0.30 1993 0.53 0.53 0.53 1994 0.30 0.30 0.30 1995 0.58 0.58 0.58 1996 0.65 0.65 0.65 1997 0.61 0.61 0.61 1998 0.19 0.19 0.19 1999 0.32 0.32 0.32 2000 0.46 0.46 0.46 2001 0.44 0.44 0.44 2002 0.64 0.64 0.64 2003 0.57 0.57 0.57 2004 0.59 0.59 0.59 2005 0.44 0.44 0.44 2006 0.81 0.81 0.81 2007 1.95 1.95 1.95 2008 0.59 0.59 0.59 2009 0.28 0.28 0.28 2010 -0.63 -0.63 -0.63 2011 -0.04 -0.29 0.18 2012 0.28 0.24 0.34 2013 0.46 0.43 0.47 2014 0.51 0.50 0.52 2015 0.46 0.42 0.48 2016 0.46 0.46 0.50 2017 0.52 0.53 0.52 2018 0.52 0.52 0.51 2019 0.52 0.53 0.53 2020 0.56 0.55 0.55 2021 0.63 0.63 0.62 2022 0.62 0.62 0.62 2023 0.60 0.61 0.61 2024 0.59 0.60 0.60 2025 0.58 0.57 0.58 2026 0.60 0.59 0.60 2027 0.63 0.64 0.62 2028 0.65 0.67 0.63 2029 0.64 0.65 0.62 2030 0.61 0.64 0.60 2031 0.64 0.68 0.62 2032 0.66 0.70 0.63 2033 0.64 0.69 0.61 2034 0.62 0.67 0.60 2035 0.63 0.67 0.60 2036 0.64 0.68 0.61 2037 0.64 0.68 0.61 2038 0.64 0.68 0.61 2039 0.64 0.68 0.61 2040 0.64 0.68 0.61 2041 0.64 0.68 0.61 2042 0.64 0.68 0.61 2043 0.64 0.68 0.61**Elec Prices**

**Av erage Energy** 

**Prices (2010 $ / MMBtu) Electricity** 

**($/MMBtu site energy )**  **Electricity ($/kWh site energy** **) Ref.**  **High Low**  **Ref. High**  **Low** 2007 32.22 32.22 32.22 2007 0.10994 0.10994 0.10994 2008 33.72 33.72 33.72 2008 0.11505 0.11505 0.11505 2009 32.75 32.77 32.77 2009 0.11174 0.11181 0.11182 2010 31.34 31.38 31.35 2010 0.10693 0.10706 0.10696 2011 30.28 30.73 29.98 2011 0.10333 0.10486 0.10230 2012 31.48 32.11 31.03 2012 0.10742 0.10956 0.10589 2013 31.87 32.45 31.21 2013 0.10875 0.11072 0.10651 2014 31.89 32.48 31.22 2014 0.10881 0.11082 0.10651 2015 31.83 32.53 31.08 2015 0.10860 0.11099 0.10604 2016 32.05 32.83 31.18 2016 0.10935 0.11200 0.10638 2017 32.21 32.96 31.11 2017 0.10989 0.11245 0.10615 2018 32.19 33.06 31.04 2018 0.10982 0.11279 0.10589 2019 32.08 33.17 30.82 2019 0.10947 0.11319 0.10516 2020 32.25 33.40 30.93 2020 0.11004 0.11398 0.10554 2021 32.42 33.63 31.01 2021 0.11061 0.11473 0.10579 2022 32.49 33.65 31.08 2022 0.11087 0.11482 0.10605 2023 32.61 33.77 31.16 2023 0.11127 0.11522 0.10631 2024 32.70 34.15 31.42 2024 0.11156 0.11652 0.10720 2025 32.67 34.50 31.74 2025 0.11147 0.11772 0.10829 2026 32.81 34.90 31.70 2026 0.11195 0.11907 0.10817 2027 32.99 35.22 31.57 2027 0.11255 0.12019 0.10772 2028 33.15 35.62 31.62 2028 0.11311 0.12154 0.10787 2029 33.56 36.05 31.70 2029 0.11450 0.12300 0.10817 2030 33.88 36.49 31.65 2030 0.11561 0.12451 0.10798 2031 34.24 36.80 31.75 2031 0.11683 0.12555 0.10833 2032 34.55 36.82 31.98 2032 0.11787 0.12561 0.10911 2033 34.69 36.79 32.12 2033 0.11838 0.12554 0.10959 2034 34.94 37.02 32.28 2034 0.11920 0.12633 0.11014 2035 35.15 37.31 32.41 2035 0.11995 0.12729 0.11059 2036 35.36 37.58 32.51 2036 0.12064 0.12823 0.11094 2037 35.56 37.86 32.62 2037 0.12133 0.12918 0.11128 2038 35.77 38.14 32.72 2038 0.12203 0.13013 0.11163 2039 35.97 38.42 32.82 2039 0.12274 0.13109 0.11198 2040 36.18 38.71 32.92 2040 0.12344 0.13206 0.11233 2041 36.39 38.99 33.02 2041 0.12415 0.13304 0.11268 2042 36.60 39.28 33.13 2042 0.12487 0.13402 0.11303 2043 36.81 39.57 33.23 2043 0.12559 0.13501 0.11338 2044 37.02 39.86 33.33 2044 0.12631 0.13601 0.11374 2045 37.23 40.16 33.44 2045 0.12704 0.13702 0.11409 2046 37.45 40.45 33.54 2046 0.12777 0.13803 0.11445 2047 37.66 40.75 33.65 2047 0.12851 0.13905 0.11481 2048 37.88 41.05 33.75 2048 0.12925 0.14008 0.11516 2049 38.10 41.36 33.86 2049 0.12999 0.14111 0.11552 2050 38.32 41.66 33.96 2050 0.13074 0.14216 0.11588 2051 38.54 41.97 34.07 2051 0.13150 0.14321 0.11625 2052 38.76 42.28 34.18 2052 0.13225 0.14427 0.11661 2053 38.98 42.59 34.28 2053 0.13302 0.14533 0.11697 2054 39.21 42.91 34.39 2054 0.13378 0.14641 0.11734 2055 39.44 43.23 34.50 2055 0.13455 0.14749 0.11770 2056 39.66 43.55 34.60 2056 0.13533 0.14858 0.11807 2057 39.89 43.87 34.71 2057 0.13611 0.14968 0.11844 2058 40.12 44.19 34.82 2058 0.13689 0.15078 0.11881 2059 40.35 44.52 34.93 2059 0.13768 0.15190 0.11918 2060 40.58 44.85 35.04 2060 0.13847 0.15302 0.11955 2061 40.82 45.18 35.15 2061 0.13927 0.15415 0.11993 2062 41.05 45.51 35.26 2062 0.14007 0.15529 0.120302063 41.29 45.85 35.37 2063 0.14088 0.15644 0.12067 2064 41.53 46.19 35.48 2064 0.14169 0.15760 0.12105 2065 41.77 46.53 35.59 2065 0.14251 0.15876 0.12143 2066 42.01 46.87 35.70 2066 0.14333 0.15993 0.12181 2067 42.25 47.22 35.81 2067 0.14416 0.16112 0.12219 2068 42.49 47.57 35.92 2068 0.14499 0.16231 0.12257 2069 42.74 47.92 36.04 2069 0.14582 0.16351 0.12295 2070 42.98 48.28 36.15 2070 0.14666 0.16472 0.12334 2071 43.23 48.63 36.26 2071 0.14751 0.16593 0.12372 2072 43.48 48.99 36.37 2072 0.14836 0.16716 0.12411 2073 43.73 49.35 36.49 2073 0.14921 0.16840 0.12449 Source: AEO 2010 After 2035, the rate of change from 2020-2035 is used.**Heat Rates**

**Marginal Source to Site Conversion Factor**

**Elec** (Btu/kWh) 2005 11500 2006 11500 2007 11200 2008 10250 2009 10000 2010 10000 2011 10000 2012 10000 2013 10000 2014 10000 2015 10000 2016 10000 2017 9700 2018 9000 2019 8300 2020 8088 2021 8088 2022 7949 2023 7200 2024 6966 2025 6500 2026 6309 2027 6309 2028 6309 2029 6309 2030 6309 2031 6309 2032 6309 2033 6309 2034 6309 2035 6309 2036 6309 2037 6309 2038 6309 2039 6309 2040 6309 2041 6309 2042 6309 2043 6309 2044 6309 2045 6309 2046 6309 2047 6309 2048 6309 2049 6309 2050 6309 2051 6309 2052 6309 2053 6309 2054 6309 2055 6309 2056 6309 2057 6309 2058 6309 2059 6309 2060 63092061 6309 2062 6309 2063 6309 2064 6309 2065 6309 2066 6309 2067 6309 2068 6309 2069 6309 2070 6309**Lifetime**

Assumptions Lifetime of Microwaves up to 2009: Average 10.91 alpha 4.75 shape beta 10.28 scale low value 1 location

1 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 3 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 4 0.2% 99.7% 99.8% 5 0.8% 98.9% 99.2% 6 2.1% 96.8% 97.9% 7 4.2% 92.5% 95.6% 8 7.4% 85.1% 92.0% 9 11.3% 73.8% 86.7% 10 15.0% 58.8% 79.6% 11 17.2% 41.6% 70.8% 12 16.4% 25.2% 60.5% 13 12.7% 12.4% 49.4% 14 7.7% 4.7% 38.1% 15 3.4% 1.3% 27.6% 16 1.1% 0.2% 18.6% 17 0.2% 0.0% 11.5% 18 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 19 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 20 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%

sum: 100%

wt. avg. lifetime = 10.910759 max lifetime = 13 % surviving to next year % surviving % retiring Age