June 11, 2012

Sponsor: Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority, Topeka, Kansas

Eric Johnson, President/Director of Airports

Congressional Code: KS-02

Dun & Bradstreet Number: 150947141

Tax Identification Number (EIN): 48-0878790

FORBES FIELD AIRPORT, TOPEKA, KANSAS

Application Under the Small Community Air Service Development Program

Docket DOT-OST-2012-0069

Application for Federal Support for New Air Service via Revenue Guarantees, 

Advertising and Marketing, and Start-Up Cost Offsets

Targeted towards Introduction of Local Air Service
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introductory Letter of Support 3

Summary Information – Appendix C 5

Introduction 8

The Topeka Air Service Market 9

Current and Historical Service 9

Potential for New Service 13

Air Service Development Efforts 15

Air Service Needs and Deficiencies 17

Regional Capacity Trends 17

Increased Cost of Driving 18

Strategic Plan for New Air Service 20

Targeted Route: Topeka – Chicago O’Hare 21

Potential Passenger Traffic 22

Implementation Timeline 26

Public/Private Partnership 28

Legal Sponsor 30

Conclusion 31

INTRODUCTORY LETTERS OF SUPPORT

Section Page Number
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 3

INTRODUCTORY LETTER OF SUPPORT
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 4
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 5

SUMMARY INFORMATION – APPENDIX C

Small Community Air Service Development Program

Docket DOT-OST-2012-0069

A. Applicant Information

 Not a Consortium Community now receives EAS subsidy

 Interstate Consortium Intrastate Consortium

 Community previously received a Small Community Grant

 If previous recipient, Date of Grant: ________________________________

Expiration date of Grant: _______________________

Federal Funds Requested: ______________________

Carrier(s) Service Obtained: ____________________

Destination(s) Served: __________________________

B. Public/Private Partnership

Public:

1. State of Kansas

2. Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority

3. City of Topeka

4. Shawnee County Commission

Private:

1. Greater Topeka Area Chamber of Commerce

2. Coalition of Topeka Area Businesses
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 6

C. Project Proposal

 Marketing Upgrade Aircraft New Route

 Travel Bank Service Restoration Subsidy

 Surface Transportation Regional Service Revenue Guarantee

 Launch New Carrier Start-Up Cost Offset First Service

 Study Secure Additional Service Other (Specify)

D. Existing Landing Aids at Airport

 Full ILS Outer/Middle Marker Published Instrument Approach

 Localizer Other:

E. Project Cost

1. Federal amount requested: $ 1,000,000

2. State cash financial contribution: $ 1,000,000

Local cash financial contribution:

3a. Airport cash funds: $ 0

3b. Non-Airport cash funds: $ 0

3. Total local cash funds: $ 2,000,000

4. TOTAL CASH FUNDING: $ 2,000,000

In-Kind Contribution:

a. Airport In-Kind contribution: $ Various

b. Other In-Kind contribution: $ Various

5. TOTAL IN-KIND CONTRIBUTION: $ Undetermined

6. TOTAL PROJECT COST: $ 2,000,000 + In-Kind

F. In-Kind Contributions

For funds in lines 7a (airport in-kind contribution) and 7b (other in-kind contribution), 

please describe the source(s) of fund(s) for each.

Fee waivers: landing and terminal fees (airport)

Advertising and marketing match money (media companies)
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 7

G. Is Application Subject to Review by State Under Executive Order 12372 Process?

 This application was made available to the state under the Executive Order 12372 Process 

for review on ______.

 Program is subject to E.O 12372, but has not been selected by the state for review.

 Program is not covered by E.O 12372.

H. Is Applicant Delinquent on any Federal Debt?

 No
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 8

INTRODUCTION

Topeka is one of the few state capitals in the country without local air service. The State of 

Kansas is beginning to realize the economic hardship the lack of air service causes the capital. 

As such, the State is beginning a partnership with the Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority to 

bring scheduled airline service to Forbes Field. The partnership is modeled after the successful 

effort to bring American Eagle service to Manhattan, Kansas. As part of this project, the State 

will provide $1 million in revenue guarantee funding, in conjunction with Small Community Air 

Service Development Program dollars and local funding.

The Airport Authority met with SkyWest in April of this year, and identified United Express service to 

Chicago O’Hare as the target of the effort. The Topeka catchment area generates almost 50 

local passengers per day each way to and from Chicago right now, with fares that have 

increased by almost 40% over the last four years. Moreover, Kansas City – Chicago O’Hare 

available airline seats have been cut by an average of 627 seats per day each way since the 

fall of 2009, making it more difficult for those living in 

east central Kansas to access Chicago as a 

destination, and as a gateway to connecting cities.

Another factor working in favor of the success of air 

service is the new development happening in the 

South Topeka Economic Growth Corridor – adjacent to Forbes Field. In the last three years, 

major companies such as Frito-Lay, Home Depot, Mars Chocolate, Target, and Bimbo/Allen 

Foods have built logistics centers and manufacturing plants in the Corridor. These companies 

have added almost 1,500 new jobs to the region, with an average wage of $52,000 per year.

For the Corridor’s growth to continue, companies have made it clear there must be scheduled 

air service at Forbes Field Airport. The Airport Authority has worked tirelessly in the last 12 months 

to secure State funding for a revenue guarantee. The Governor signed the bill allocating $1 

million in State funding for this project on June 1 of this year. The Airport has also worked hard, 

spending considerable time and expense, to find an airline partner. Now it is requesting its first 

Small Community Air Service Development Grant in support of bringing scheduled service back 

to Kansas’ capital.

“As part of this project, the State 

will provide $1 million in revenue 

guarantee funding...”
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 9

THE TOPEKA AIR SERVICE MARKET

Historical and Future Air Service

Topeka has supported air service in the past, and there are clear indications it can support 

future air service. Topeka’s most recent service, on Allegiant, averaged a 79% load factor for its 

duration. Topeka generates almost 600,000 current annual passengers – the vast majority of 

whom travel in and out of Kansas City International. The Topeka catchment area is vibrant and 

growing.

The 2010 US Census 

showed that the 45-

minute drive around 

Topeka’s Forbes Field 

Airport, seen in the map 

in blue, now has a total 

of 275,477 residents –

up from roughly 250,000 

residents in the year 

2000 (see map 1). The 

more immediate Forbes 

Field Airport catchment 

area, within the 30-

minute drive radius 

seen in gray, is home to 

176,147 people as of 

2010.

The Topeka catchment area is distinct from Kansas City. The larger population centers within the 

catchment tend to be on the west side of the catchment – away from Kansas City. Forbes Field 

is located well within the catchment to pull from the major population centers, unlike Kansas City 

International, which is located on the north side of the Kansas City metro area.

Topeka lost its last commercial hub service in 2003, when the Department of Transportation 

ended its status as an Essential Air Service (EAS) market. The judgment was made due to the 

fact that the average subsidy, per passenger, had topped the $200 cap. Otherwise, Topeka 

MAP 1: Forbes Field Airport Catchment Area, 30-Minute and 45-Minute Drive

Source: Sixel Consulting Group; 2010 US Census
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 10

would still qualify as an EAS service point today, as it had commercial service at the end of 

deregulation and it lies more than 70 miles from the nearest medium hub airport, in Kansas City.

The reason Topeka’s previous hub service didn’t perform well is that it connected, only, to 

Kansas City, itself. The service was designed to use Kansas City as a hub – which didn’t work for 

several reasons. One, there was no value to a connection at a hub that was only 90 minutes’ 

drive away. Two, there was no potential for local traffic to offset the cost of the service. And 

three, Kansas City didn’t operate as a hub for any carrier – there were few flights to connect to.

The loss of Essential Air Service was viewed as a sign that the market could not support service –

which is not the case. The market will support service, as long as that service connects to a true 

hub, and as long as there is some value to the local segment. With shifts in regional air service 

strategy, Topeka is better suited now than it has been before for a regional jet service, 

supporting premium fares, to a major airline hub.

FIGURE 1: O&D Passengers from the Topeka Catchment Area

Sources: US DOT Table OD1A, Sixel Consulting Group Analysis; CY2003 – CY2011
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 11

In calendar year 2011, the Topeka catchment area generated an estimated 821 passengers per 

day each way, or a total of almost 600,000 passengers (see figure 1 on previous page). 

However, Topeka catchment area passengers have declined by an average of 114 passengers 

per day each way since 2007, or 12%, mainly because of rising fares.

In the last three years, the average fare paid by passengers from the Topeka catchment area 

has gone up by 23% or an average of $34 one way (see figure 1 on previous page). The fare 

has hit a decade high, at an average of $182 each way, despite the fact that there is low fare 

service at both Kansas City and Wichita. The impact of rising fares in the region has been the 

suppression of travel from the Topeka market.

The top passenger markets for 

travelers who live within the 

immediate Topeka catchment 

area are spread throughout the 

country, indicating the region 

would be best served with 

service that can connect omnidirectionally. A total of 12 of 

Topeka’s top 20 origin and 

destination passengers markets 

are to the east of the region, 

while eight are to the west. 

Topeka’s largest O&D market is 

Chicago, which generates an 

average of almost 49 

passengers per day each way 

as of calendar year 2011 (see 

figure 2). Other large O&D 

markets to the east include New 

York/Newark, which generates 

an average of 33 passengers 

per day each way; Orlando, which generates an average of 26 passengers per day each way; 

and Washington, DC, which also generates an average of 26 passengers per day each way.

FIGURE 2: Topeka’s Estimated Top 20 O&D Passenger Markets,

Sources: US DOT Table OD1A, Sixel Consulting Group Analysis; CY2011
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 12

As previously noted in this application, the average fare in the Topeka region is up 23% in the last 

three years. The 2011 average one way fare was $182 each way – up from $148 each way in 

2009 (refer to previous figure 1). One of the reasons for the regional fare increase is the loss of 

airline capacity in the region surrounding the Topeka catchment area – with total available 

seats down 25% since the 

summer of 2008.

Average fares to markets east 

of Topeka are generally higher 

than average fares to markets 

to the west. There are 

exceptions, but examples 

abound. Chicago’s average 

one way fare for Topeka 

catchment area passengers is 

estimated at $134 as of 

calendar year 2011, while the 

average one way fare to 

Denver was $109 (see figure 

3). The average one way fare 

to New York/Newark is 

estimated at $182, while the 

average fare to Las Vegas is 

$143 each way. The average 

one way fare to Washington, DC is estimated at $160, while the average fare to Los Angeles is 

$154 each way. The impact of these rising fares, and the corollary loss of airline capacity in the 

region surrounding Topeka, is that access to air service is more difficult than it has been at any 

time since the end of 2001. 

The Forbes Field Airport lost its last scheduled air service in July of 2007. Allegiant Air provided 

non-stop flights, twice per week, between Topeka and Las Vegas from March of 2006 through 

the summer of 2007. The service performed well, from an analysis of all data points, but it was 

ended as Allegiant was beginning to see margins in the 20% to 25% range – slightly higher than 

the projected margin it was likely earning in Topeka.

FIGURE 3: Average One Way Fare at Top 20 O&D Passenger Markets,

Sources: US DOT Table OD1A, Sixel Consulting Group Analysis; CY 2011
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 13

For the full 17-month operation of Topeka – Las Vegas service, Allegiant averaged a load factor 

of 79% (see figure 4). The carrier averaged 44 available seats per day each way (SDEW), and 

boarded an average of 36 passengers per day each way (PDEW) – despite the fact that the 

service operated just twice per week.

Topeka – Las Vegas service performed best just before it was pulled. In the last two months of 

Allegiant service, the route averages 40.3 passengers per day each way – the highest twomonth average for the entire duration the route was served (see figure 4). In the last two months 

of service in Topeka, Allegiant averaged a load factor just above 91%.

The past performance of Allegiant service in the market indicates that Topeka travelers will 

choose their local airport, and fill local airline seats, when service is available. Since the service 

ended there have been a number of other changes in the market that make it more attractive 

for airlines.

12

40

44

45

44

39

45

44

40

44 44

48

44

45

39

45

44

9.4

20.3

30.0

40.8

39.6

34.2

36.1

34.8

28.5

35.5

31.1

36.5

35.7

32.7

29.9

40.6 40.2

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

2006-03 2006-04 2006-05 2006-06 2006-07 2006-08 2006-09 2006-10 2006-11 2006-12 2007-01 2007-02 2007-03 2007-04 2007-05 2007-06 2007-07

Available SDEW Onboard PDEW Load Factor

77.7%

50.7%

68.8%

90.6% 91.1% 88.5%

80.1% 79.9%

71.2%

81.5%

71.5%

75.7%

82.1%

72.7%

77.3%

90.3% 92.3%

FIGURE 4: Departing Seats per Day, Departing Passengers per Day, and Load Factor

Topeka – Las Vegas Service, March 2006 – July 2007; Source: US DOT T100 Data
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 14

In the last several years, more than 4,000 new jobs have been created on land directly adjacent 

to the Forbes Field Airport. The area is now known as the South Topeka Economic Growth 

Corridor (see map 2). The corridor 

has seen new investment from a 

number of major national and 

international corporations. Allen 

Foods/Bimbo has developed a 

bakery and shipping center on the 

site. Frito-Lay opened a major 

expansion to its chip bakery and 

shipping center. Home Depot 

opened its rapid deployment center 

that sends last minute goods to stores 

all over the country. Mars Chocolate 

spent more than $250 million on a 

new plant to produce its Snickers bars 

and its M&M chocolates – hiring 200 

new employees. And Target chose 

the Corridor for its Midwest 

distribution center. All of these 

companies are Airport partners in 

developing new schedule service 

adjacent to their facilities.

MAP 2: South Topeka Economic Growth Corridor

Source: GO! Topeka Economic Partnership
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 15

AIR SERVICE DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS

In the last 12 months, the Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority has focused its air service 

development effort on building a coalition for financial risk-sharing in conjunction with new 

scheduled service. The most significant support for the coalition will come from the State of 

Kansas. The Airport is working diligently with the State, conducting a series of meetings with key 

decision makers, to replicate the success of a revenue guarantee program used in Manhattan, 

Kansas to bring American Eagle to the market. The result of this hard work was the Governor’s 

approval, on June 1, 2012, of $1 million in State funding as 50% of the funding for this project.

The Manhattan revenue guarantee program has resulted in successful service, with the vast 

majority of the State’s money being returned, unused, as the service was profitable for American 

Eagle on its own. The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority will be able to use the returned 

funds to duplicate the program.

An analysis of the performance of American Eagle in Manhattan shows an increasing number of 

available seats over the last two years, with increasing passengers and strong load factors (see 

figure 5). American Eagle now offers service to both Dallas/Ft. Worth and Chicago O’Hare from 

Manhattan. 

FIGURE 5: Departing Seats and Passengers per Day, and Load Factor; Manhattan, Kansas (MHK)

Source: US DOT T100 Data; January 2010 – February 2012
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 16

In February of 2012, the airline offered an average of 249 departing seats per day in Manhattan, 

and averaged 176 onboard passengers per day each way (see figure 5). The Manhattan 

market averaged a 77% load factor for the 12 months ended February of 2012.

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority does not want to duplicate the exact service at 

Manhattan – even though the two airports don’t generally compete for passengers. The 

Authority met, in person, with SkyWest in April of 2012 to discuss regional jet service under the 

United Express brand to Chicago O’Hare. SkyWest has expressed interest in the plan, if the 

Authority can more fully develop its revenue guarantee plan.
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 17

AIR SERVICE NEEDS AND DEFICIENCIES IN TOPEKA

Being one of the few State capitals without scheduled airline service, Topeka’s needs and 

deficiencies are clear – economic connections in the capital of Kansas suffer from a lack of 

access to other markets, and the region needs to do whatever it can to bring air service to 

Forbes Field Airport. But the challenges go beyond a simple lack of service. The fact is the 

airports Topeka residents and businesses rely on for service have seen capacity cuts, fare 

increases, and more difficult flight availability.

Since the summer of 2008, Kansas City International Airport has seen its most significant seat cuts 

in more than a decade. Kansas City has lost an average of 71.2 daily departures – a loss of 31% 

of that Airport’s daily flights, since the summer of 2008 (see figure 6). During that same time 

period, Kansas City has lost an average of 5,600 daily available departing seats, or 25% of the 

market’s available airline capacity.

FIGURE 6: Available Seats, Flights, and Passengers per Day at MCI

Source: US DOT T100 Data; June 2008 – January 2012
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 18

The Kansas City cuts are bigger when they are put into a regional air service perspective. The 

5,600 daily departing seats lost represent a total of 112 daily 50-seat regional jet flights. Even if 

SkyWest adds two 50-seat regional jet flights at Topeka, the added capacity would only replace 

1.8% of the capacity lost at Kansas City.

It also costs Topeka catchment area residents more to access air service in Kansas City than it 

did several years ago. Topeka’s city center is 76 miles, by the most commonly driven route, from 

the first terminal at Kansas City International. 

Based on IRS reimbursement rates for 

employees driving their own vehicles on 

business, the cost of that roundtrip drive in 

2006 was $68.40, or 45-cents per mile (see 

figure 7). In 2012, the IRS reimbursement rate 

is 55.5-cents per mile. The cost of the 

roundtrip drive between Topeka and Kansas 

City’s airport has gone up to $84.36 – an 

increase of 23%.

Very few people in the Topeka catchment area choose to fly from Wichita’s airport because it’s 

70 miles farther away than Kansas City. But those who do have found their cost of driving 

increase by that same 23%. In 2006, the 

average roundtrip drive cost between 

Topeka’s city center and Wichita’s airport 

was $131.40 (see figure 8). By 2012 that 

roundtrip cost had jumped to $162.06 which is 

an increase of $30.66 roundtrip.

The increasing cost of accessing the national 

air transportation system makes it more 

difficult for businesses in Topeka to compete with businesses in other parts of the country – in 

regional cities that have regional air service. The increased cost of driving to access air service 

also makes Topeka unattractive for new investment.

Meanwhile, potential airlines that could serve Forbes Field Airport have told the Authority they 

are worried about breaking passenger habits in the catchment area, and convincing those 

FIGURE 7: Cost of Drive, Topeka – Kansas City Airport

Sources: IRS Statistics, Sixel Consulting Group

FIGURE 8: Cost of Drive, Topeka – Wichita Airport

Sources: IRS Statistics, Sixel Consulting Group

2006 2012

76 76

152 152

1:17 1:17

2:34 2:34

$0.45 $0.555

$68.40 $84.36

IRS Mileage Rate

Roundtrip Business Cost

Topeka - Kansas City International

Drive Distance (One Way)

Drive Distance (Roundtrip)

Drive Time (One Way)

Drive Time (Roundtrip)

2006 2012

146 146

292 292

2:27 2:27

4:54 4:54

$0.45 $0.555

$131.40 $162.06

IRS Mileage Rate

Roundtrip Business Cost

Topeka - Wichita Airport

Drive Distance (One Way)

Drive Distance (Roundtrip)

Drive Time (One Way)

Drive Time (Roundtrip)
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 19

passengers to use their local airport instead of driving to Kansas City to access service. The cost 

of the drive makes this a little bit easier. Still, this Grant application is a key to funding an 

adequate marketing program to accomplish the goal of retaining passengers, and to 

convincing airlines the proper amount of funding is available to achieve this goal.

The Airport has worked for the last several years to develop significant matching funding for this 

application. Finally, less than two weeks before this application was submitted, the Governor 

signed an agreement for the State of Kansas to provide matching funds of $1 million for a 

revenue guarantee under this program. Now is the time for the Department of Transportation to 

quickly act to make new service a reality in 2013.
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 20

STRATEGIC PLAN FOR NEW AIR SERVICE

Working together with the State of Kansas, local partners, SkyWest Airlines, and the Department 

of Transportation, the Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority has developed a plan to bring 

United Express Chicago O’Hare service to Forbes Field Airport. The plan includes funding from 

the State of Kansas and the Department of Transportation for a revenue guarantee, a marketing 

and advertising program, start-up cost offsets, and fee waivers during the launch phase.

Through a detailed statistical market analysis of passengers and fares, the Airport believes the 

service can be supported by its immediate, 30-minute drive time catchment area. The Forbes 

Field Airport 30-minute 

catchment area 

represents 6.59% of the 

total population of the 

90-minute Kansas City 

catchment area (see 

map 3). The immediate 

Topeka catchment area, 

represented in map 2 in 

purple, includes 176,147

people. 

Only those living in the 

immediate, 30-minute 

Topeka catchment area 

are considered in the

origin and destination 

passenger analysis

included in this proposal, 

as Forbes Field would be significantly more convenient for them than Kansas City International 

Airport (MCI). For the purposes of these projections, it is assumed service at Topeka would draw 

passengers only from its 6.59% share of the Kansas City catchment area (see map 3).

The United Airlines Chicago O’Hare hub would provide Topeka area travelers the most wideranging collection of one-stop destinations of any hub to the east of the market. The 

MAP 3: Forbes Field Airport Immediate Catchment Area

Sources: Sixel Consulting Group, 2010 US Census
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 21

Metropolitan 

Topeka Airport 

Authority has had 

recent discussions, 

in the spring of 

2012, with SkyWest, 

about serving the 

Topeka – Chicago 

O’Hare market 

under the United 

code. It was made 

clear in these 

discussions that a 

risk mitigation 

program would be 

a key to new 

service.

United Express 

service from Topeka to O’Hare on the United code would connect to 117 one-stop cities 

throughout the eastern US, Mexico, Canada, Europe, South America, and Asia (see map 4). 

Chicago O’Hare provides the best possible connectivity to destinations on the East Coast –

which rank as 12 of the region’s 20 largest origin and destination passenger markets.

The Airport proposes two daily flights on the route in each direction. The route between Topeka 

and Chicago O’Hare (ORD) would cover 459 miles in a block time of one hour and 30 minutes, 

on average, assuming an average groundspeed of 400 knots on a Canadair CRJ200 regional jet 

aircraft seating 50 passengers in an all-economy layout (see figure 9).

Origin Destination Departs Arrives Block Time Equipment

FOE ORD 6:45am 8:15am 1:30 CRJ

ORD FOE 11:45am 1:15pm 1:30 CRJ

FOE ORD 1:45pm 3:15pm 1:30 CRJ

ORD FOE 7:15pm 8:45pm 1:30 CRJ

MAP 4: One-Stop Connections over Chicago O’Hare on United

Source: Sixel Consulting Group Hub Builder, May 2012

FIGURE 9: Proposed Schedule: Topeka – Chicago O’Hare

Source: Sixel Consulting Group
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 22

The proposed schedule would allow for the overnight of an aircraft at the Forbes Field Airport, 

which positions the aircraft for an early morning departure to Chicago O’Hare to connect to the 

first departing block of flights of the day on the United Airlines network (see figure 9). This 

schedule connects into the main midday and evening banks at Chicago O’Hare, as well, with a 

late evening arrival. The schedule is designed for the Topeka area business traveler to be able 

to make a one day trip to Chicago, and a two day trip to most East Coast markets – providing 

the best possible competition with the schedule at Kansas City. The schedule also conforms to 

new crew scheduling requirements for longer crew overnight rest.

In analyzing the opportunity it is important to understand the performance and capacity on 

current competing service between Kansas City and Chicago O’Hare. Since the fall of 2008, 

airlines flying between Kansas City and O’Hare have cut their capacity by 41% (see figure 10). 

At the same time, load factors on the route have pushed to an average of 80% for the 12 

months ended January 2012, indicating the potential for success of additional Chicago O’Hare 

service in the region.

FIGURE 10: Available Seats, Flights, and Passengers per Day between MCI and ORD

June 2009 – January 2012; Source: US DOT T100 Data
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 23

Since September of 2008, airlines have cut an average of 627 daily departing seats in each 

direction between Kansas City and Chicago O’Hare (see figure 10 on previous page). The seats 

proposed in this application – 100 per day in each direction – will replace only a small proportion 

of those already cut from the local region.

Average origin and destination fares paid in the Topeka catchment area on the Chicago route 

have been steadily increasing for the last decade. In 2003, the average one way fare for 

Topeka catchment area passengers to Chicago (including both O’Hare and Midway airports) 

was $66 each way. As of the year ended third quarter 2011 the fare had risen to $126 each way 

– an overall increase of $60 each way or 91% (see figure 11).

With steady fare increases between the Topeka catchment area and Chicago, passengers 

have been falling each year since 2007 (see figure 11). As of the year ended third quarter 2011, 

the Topeka – Chicago (O’Hare plus Midway) market generated an average of 48.7 passengers 

per day each way. The market has lost an average of 18.2 passengers per day each way since 

2007 – a loss of 27% of its local passengers. Despite the passenger loss, the local Topeka –

FIGURE 11: Estimated O&D Passengers from the Topeka Catchment Area to/from Chicago (ORD+MDW)

Sources: US DOT Table OD1A, Sixel Consulting Group Analysis; YE3Q03 – YE3Q11
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 24

Chicago market is large enough to support one regional jet flight per day in each direction with 

a 97% load factor – not taking into account any connecting traffic or any traffic stimulation with 

new non-stop service.

The Topeka catchment area currently generates an estimated average of 520 origin and 

destination passengers per day each way to destinations that naturally connect over the United 

Airlines Chicago O’Hare hub. As of the year ended third quarter 2011, Topeka is estimated to 

have generated 379,600 total origin and destination passengers that would flow over O’Hare on 

United and the Star Alliance. 

At the same time, Topeka

markets that flow over the 

United Chicago O’Hare hub 

generate more than $64.2

million in annual airline 

revenue, or $87,900 in 

revenue per day each way.

The United/Star Alliance hub 

at Chicago O’Hare has 

potential to capture large 

portions of traffic in many of 

Topeka’s largest estimated 

origin and destination 

markets. The O’Hare hub is 

especially well positioned to 

capture traffic traveling to 

the East Coast and to 

international markets. 

Among the large markets 

that would be served over Chicago O’Hare on United is Chicago, itself, which is estimated to 

generate 48.9 passengers per day each way to and from the Topeka catchment area as of the 

year ended third quarter 2011 (see figure 12). Other large East Coast markets over O’Hare on 

the UA code include Washington-Baltimore, with an average of 39.5 passengers per day each 

way; New York/Newark, with an average of 32.1 passengers per day each way; Orlando, with 

FIGURE 12: Topeka’s Top 20 Passenger Markets over ORD on United

Sources: US DOT Table OD1A, Sixel Consulting Group Analysis; YE3Q11
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 25

an average of 26.8 passengers per day each way; and Atlanta, with an average of 19.2 

passengers per day each way.

The average fare from the Topeka 

catchment area to markets that 

flow over the Chicago O’Hare hub 

on United and its partners is $169

one way as of the year ended 

third quarter 2011 (see figure 13). 

As demonstrated earlier in this 

application, Topeka catchment 

fares to East Coast markets, on 

average, tend to be higher than 

fares to West Coast markets, even 

though Topeka is closer to the East 

Coast than the West Coast. This is 

evidenced by high average one 

way fares such as $197 to Detroit, 

$180 to Philadelphia, $179 to New 

York/Newark, and $157 to 

Washington-Baltimore. The 

proposal for local air service at 

Forbes Field Airport is targeted to 

help bring down these fares through new access to service and increased competition.

In order to make this service a reality, the Airport has been working diligently with the State of 

Kansas, its air service experts, and its local business partners to develop a sufficient package for 

risk mitigation. The lynchpin in this application is the matching funding provided by the State of 

Kansas. The State has committed $1 million dollars under this application to match a federal 

request for $1 million in Small Community Air Service Development Grant funding. The total 

project cost is $2 million – each partner has a 50% stake.

All of the funding included in this application will be dedicated to a revenue guarantee, 

benchmarked against airline cost targets. Additional funding from other sources, including 

GO!Topeka, the Chamber, and the Airport, will be used in support of marketing and advertising 

FIGURE 13: Average One Way Fare at Top 20 Passenger Markets

over ORD on UA; Source: US DOT Table OD1A; YE3Q11
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 26

programs. Start-up expenses and fee waivers will be provided to the new carrier outside of this 

proposal, with additional Airport cash.

The proposed implementation timeline for the project assumes the Department of Transportation

will award Small Community Grant Funding in September of 2012 (see figure 14). Once the 

award is announced, the Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority will conduct additional airline 

meetings to secure 

new service. Based on 

airline planning lead 

times and the need for 

advance bookings, it is

assumed the new 

carrier would not be 

able to begin service 

until at least June of 

2013.

The first three

milestones on the Airport's timeline are to execute the grant agreement with the Department of 

Transportation, meet with prospective airlines to negotiate for service, and sign the minimum 

revenue guarantee agreement with the appropriate airline partner (see figure 14). Once 

service is announced and schedules are published, the Airport would begin marketing the new 

route and working with the new carrier to monitor advance bookings. The Airport will continue 

its marketing program and continue to work with the new carrier to monitor the route once 

service begins. The Airport would submit grant status reports on a quarterly basis to the 

Department throughout the proposed two-year term of the minimum revenue guarantee.

While the estimated dates are targets, it is possible service could be secured and launched on a 

more aggressive timeline once Grant funding is awarded. It is also possible that new service 

could slip to 2014 should an airline require additional risk mitigation, beyond that included in this 

proposal, from the community.

If, for some unforeseen reason, service is not commenced in a timely manner by a carrier serving 

the United Airlines hub at Chicago O’Hare, the Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority proposes 

to use federal grant money awarded under the Small Community Air Service Development 

FIGURE 14: Grant Implementation Timeline

Source: Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority

Activity/Project Milestone Estimated Date

SCASD Grant Award Announcement September 2012

Executive Grant Agreement with DOT October 2012

Meet With Prospective Airlines Oct/Nov 2012

Negotiate Minimum Revenue Guarantee (MRG) With Airline Jan - Mar 2013

Announce Service March 2013

Publish Schedule March 2013

Begin Marketing of New Route March 2013

Monitor Advance Bookings March - June 2013

Service Launch June 2013

MRG Available for Service June 2013 - October 2015

Monitor Route Performance June 2013 - October 2015

Submit Grant Status Reports to DOT Quarterly Q4 2012 - Q4 2015

Close Grant October 2015
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 27

Program for service to another hub with wide-ranging connectivity. Among the options the 

Airport will consider would be service to Chicago O’Hare on American Eagle or another AAaffiliated carrier; service to Memphis on Delta or one of its affiliated carriers; service to Dallas/Ft. 

Worth on American Eagle or one of its affiliated carriers; service to Minneapolis/St. Paul on Delta 

or one of its affiliated carriers; or service to Detroit on Delta or one of its affiliated carriers.

Should these options, for an unforeseen reason, not be available for new service at the Forbes 

Field Airport, the Airport will continue its discussions with all other carriers that can provide 

service. Since the community has never before received a Small Community Air Service 

Development Grant, it should have few limitations on which new hub the DOT could help fund.
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 28

PUBLIC/PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP

The Topeka area partnership for air service involves a number of agencies and businesses from 

east central Kansas. The major support for this proposal comes from the State of Kansas, 

modeling the revenue guarantee for new service after the successful project in Manhattan, 

Kansas. The State has formally agreed to provide $1 million of the funding for this project. Other 

organizations are working closely with the Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority to develop 

marketing materials, advertising placement, in-kind support, and to ensure local businesses use 

the service proposed in this application.

State of Kansas

The State of Kansas is the 15th largest in the United States by land area and the 33rd largest in 

terms of population. The State is home to 2.87 million people as of the 2010 US Census. The 

capital is in Topeka. As such, the State realizes the value of having local air service in its capital 

city, and is partnering with the Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority in this application. The 

Governor signed an agreement allocating $1 million in State funding to this project, in the form 

of a revenue guarantee for first air service. The funding will only be allocated if the Airport is 

successful in this Grant application.

Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority owns and operates Forbes Field Airport in Topeka. The 

Authority has long been advocating for increased commercial air service at the Airport, and this 

application is just part of that advocacy. The Airport Authority has already approved the money 

to be spent to match this Grant, recognizing how important the addition of viable air service is to 

the region.

Greater Topeka Area Chamber of Commerce

The Greater Topeka Chamber of Commerce has the mission of working to get the things done 

that a company cannot do alone. A Chamber membership is seen as an investment in both a 

company's and the community's future. The membership of the Greater Topeka Chamber of 

Commerce represents the entire community with members from business and industry, private 

associations, civic organizations, home based businesses, social service agencies, education, 

government, and individuals. Over 1,200 member firms, representing over 1,900 individuals, are 

Chamber members, joining in their support of the Forbes Field Airport in Topeka.
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 29

City of Topeka

As the State’s second largest city, and Kansas’ capital, the City of Topeka is glad to have the 

opportunity to partner with Forbes Field Airport to bring competitive air service to the City. 

Community leaders have long been working to recruit additional air service to the region.

Shawnee County Commission

This three person board oversees the operation of Shawnee County, the home of the City of 

Topeka and Forbes Field Airport. The Commission is publically elected, and in charge of a multimillion dollar annual budget. The Commission has a current emphasis on economic 

development and, as such, supports the effort to bring air service to Forbes Field.

Coalition of Topeka Area Businesses

Dozens of local businesses will work together to support the push to bring air service to eastern 

Kansas. These businesses will not only pledge to use new service at Forbes Field Airport, but also 

work to make sure the air service marketing message is spread throughout the community.
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 30

LEGAL SPONSOR

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority is the legal sponsor responsible for administering the 

program. The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority is a government entity.

Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority 

Forbes Field Airport

PO Box 19053

Topeka, Kansas 66619

Eric Johnson, President/Director of Airports

785.862.2362

ejohnson@mtaa-topeka.org
Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 31

CONCLUSIONS

Bringing scheduled airline service to a market like Topeka comes down to building a risk sharing 

package that can ensure an airline it can enter the market without losing money on the front 

end. The numbers airlines talk about in risk sharing aren’t what they used to be. Just six or seven 

years ago a market could offer an airline a $500,000 revenue guarantee and that was enough 

to entice the airline to start service. Today, airlines expect revenue guarantees, for new, 

unproven markets, in the seven figure range.

This reality drove the Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority to work with State of Kansas leaders 

to develop revenue guarantee funding in excess of what the Authority would ask for from the 

federal Small Community Air Service Development Program. The State share of the project in 

this application is $1 million – or 50% of the total 

project cost. The money is officially committed 

to this project, and is dependent upon this 

proposal being awarded.

Forbes Field Airport lies at the center of a 

market that generates more than 800 airline 

passengers per day each way. Since there is 

no scheduled service at the Airport, virtually all of them use Kansas City International Airport 

(MCI). The cost of the drive to MCI has gone up by 23% in the last five years to almost $90 

roundtrip, with fuel prices still on the rise. Moreover, local fares paid by Topeka catchment area 

residents are up more than 25% in the last three years to an average of $182 each way before 

taxes and fees.

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority has never been awarded a Small Community Air 

Service Development Grant. Never before has it asked the Department of Transportation for 

such a reasonable portion of the overall project cost. This application demonstrates the will of 

the people of Kansas in building local air service, the local economy, and connections to the 

rest of the world.

“This application demonstrates the 

will of the people of Kansas in 

building local air service, the local 

economy, and connections to the 

rest of the world.”