NEW JERSEY 2 ND CARBON MONOXIDE MAINTENANCE PLAN,

CONFORMITY BUDGETS, AND EMISSIONS INVENTORIES

TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT (TSD)

April 27, 2006

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region II Division of Environmental Planning and Protection Air Programs Branch2 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Purpose : To evaluate New Jersey = s State Implementation Plan revisions which include:

2 nd Carbon Monoxide Maintenance Plan, Conformity Budgets, and Emissions Inventories.

Section 1. New Jersey State 2002 Base Year
Inventory SIP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Section 2. Carbon Monoxide Limited Maintenance Plan Attainment Inventory for the Nine Not Classified Areas and Camden County . . . . 11

Section 3. PM2.5 and NOx Annual Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5

Nonattainment Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 

### SECTION 1

New Jersey State 2002 Base Year Inventory SIP4 I. PREFACE

This document is to support EPA's approval of a revision to the New Jersey State Implementation Plan (SIP) which pertains to the following:

1. Where applicable, 2002 base year inventory annual emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions for CO nonattainment areas,

2. The Carbon Monoxide Limited Maintenance Plan Attainment Inventory for the Nine Not Classified Areas and Camden County and,

3. The 2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut

This TSD contains a detailed review of New Jersey’s 2002 Base Emission Inventory submittal. Among the topics discussed below are the recent history and criteria for approval and EPA’s

final recommendations.

II. BACKGROUND

On November 18, 2002, EPA designated the 2002 base year inventory as the inventory for SIP planning process to address the pollutants for the eight hour-ozone, PM2.5 and CO national ambient air quality standard. Identifying the base year gives certainty to States, and the selection of 2002 harmonizes the date for EPA’s Consolidated Emissions Reporting rule (See 67 FR 39602) dated June 10, 2002.) that requires submission of the ozone, PM2.5 and CO emission inventories every three years; 2002 is one of the required years for such updates. These requirements allow the EPA, based on the state’s progress in reducing emissions, to periodically reassess its policies and air quality standards and revise them as necessary. Most important, the 2002 ozone, new PM2.5 and CO inventories will be used to develop and assess new control strategies that the states will need to submit in their attainment demonstration SIPs for the new national ambient air quality standards for ozone, PM2.5 and for CO. The base year inventory may also serve as part of statewide inventories for purposes of regional modeling in transport areas. The base year inventory plays an important role in modeling demonstrations for areas classified as nonattainment and outside transport regions. For the reasons stated above, ideally EPA would therefore emphasize the importance and benefits of developing a comprehensive, current, and accurate 2002 ozone and PM2.5 emission inventory (similar to the 1990 base year inventory effort).5 III. CRITERIA FOR APPROVAL

There are general and specific components of an acceptable emission inventory. In general, the State must submit a revision to its SIP and the emission inventory must meet the minimum requirements for reporting by source category. Specifically, the source requirements are detailed

below.

The Level I and II review process is used to determine that all components of the base year inventory are present. The review also evaluates the level of supporting documentation provided by the State and assesses whether the emissions were developed according to current EPA or acceptable alternative guidance. The data quality is also evaluated.

The Level III review process is outlined here and consists of 9 points that the inventory must adequately address. For a base year emission inventory to be acceptable it must pass all of the following acceptance criteria:

Adequate documentation must be provided that enabled the reviewer to determine the emission estimation procedures and the data sources used to develop the inventory.

1. Evidence that the inventory was quality assured by the state and its implementation

documented.

2. The point source inventory must be complete.

3. Point source emissions must have been prepared or calculated according to the current EPA guidance.

4. The area source inventory must be complete.

5. The area source emissions must have been prepared or calculated according to the current EPA guidance.

6. Biogenic emissions must have been prepared according to current EPA guidance or another approved technique.

7. Non-road mobile emissions were prepared according to current EPA guidance for all of the source categories.

8. The method (e.g., HPMS or a network transportation planning model) used to develop VMT estimates must follow EPA guidance. The VMT development methods were adequately described and documented in the inventory report.

9. The MOBILE model must be correctly used to produce emission factors for each of

the vehicle classes.6 IV. DETAILED ACTION AND EVALUATION

New Jersey submitted drafts of the SIP and comments to Region 2 for the following documents on February 22, 2004, February 21, October 12 and July 25, 2005, and January 1, 2006 for the following program area elements:

1. Where applicable, 2002 base year inventory annual emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions for CO nonattainment areas,

2. The Carbon Monoxide Limited Maintenance Plan Attainment Inventory for the Nine Not Classified Areas and Camden County and

3. The 2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long

Island/Connecticut

On February 21, 2006, New Jersey submitted a proposed SIP revision.

Region II conducted reviews on the 2002 base year inventory, CO Attainment Inventory and 2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration and provided written responses to New Jersey on February 22, 2004; April 4, May 19, May 23 and August 18, 2005 and January 30 and March 27, 2006.

This TSD contains a detail discussion and summary of the review conducted by EPA for, where applicable, the 2002 base year inventory annual emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment areas.

A. Details on How New Jersey Meets Criteria 1 for the Quality Assurance Plan

Quality Assurance Plan Implementation The Quality Assurance (QA) plan was implemented for all portions of the inventory. The QA plan included a QA/Quality control (QC) program for assessing data completeness and standard range checking. Critical data elements relative to the inventory sources were assessed for completeness. QA checks were performed relative to data collection and analysis, and double counting of emissions from point, area and mobile sources. QA/QC checks were conducted to ensure accuracy of units, unit conversions, transposition of figures, and calculations. The QA7 plan for the inventory was performed in accordance with section 6.0 of Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulation , dated August 2005.

B. Details on How New Jersey Meets Criteria 2 and 3 for the Point Source Inventory

Point Source Inventory New Jersey’s inventory includes major point sources based on the following thresholds for each pollutant: tons per year (tpy) or more for VOC; 25 tpy or more of NOx, and 100 tpy or more of CO, PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2. The inventory report describes how point source activity levels and their associated parameters were developed, and how the data were used to calculate emission estimates. The report provides referenced documents for activity level and emission factors used. Information on how rule effectiveness and control efficiencies were derived (with the associated sample calculations) are also provided. Plant summary information on detailed, plant, county and nonattainment area levels, are included in the inventory. Where applicable, annual emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions are provided for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment areas. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.3 of Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulation , dated August 2005.

C. Details on How New Jersey Meets Criteria 4 and 5 for the Area Source Inventory

Area Source Inventory The inventory lists the source categories that are included in (and excluded from) from the area source inventory. The inventory documentation includes emissions factors, activity levels, seasonal adjustment factors, and sample calculations. Referenced information for the input values to equations are included. Point source contributions have been correctly factored out of the area source category totals where appropriate. Rule effectiveness, control efficiency and rule penetration were correctly applied for several source categories and a discussion as to the basis for application is provided. Area source emissions are presented on a source category, county basis. Where applicable, annual emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions are provided for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment areas. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.4 of Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulation , dated August 2005.

D. Details on How New Jersey Meets Criterion 6 for the Biogenic Source Inventory

Biogenic Source Inventory8 EPA's Biogenic Emission Inventory System Model version 3.12 was used to estimate VOC, NOx and CO emissions. Information and key assumptions regarding the modeled day selected, meteorological inputs and referenced data, are included. The biogenic emissions are presented on county level. Where, applicable, annual emissions and summertime daily emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, and CO. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.6 of Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulation , dated August 2005.

E. Details on How New Jersey Meets Criteria 7 for Non Road Mobile Source Inventory

Nonroad Mobile Source Inventory For the New Jersey, the predominant non-road mobile source categories (i.e., agricultural equipment, construction equipment, industrial equipment, airport service equipment, light commercial equipment, lawn and garden equipment...etc.) were developed by the Nonroad Emissions Equipment Model version 2.3(c) released by EPA's Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ). Nonroad mobile source emissions are presented on a source category, county basis. Where applicable, annual emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions are provided for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment areas. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.5.2 of Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulation , dated August 2005.

Aircraft Emissions Aircraft emissions for are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2 were calculated based on the number of landing and takeoffs (LTO) cycles generated at each airport. These values were used as inputs to the Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System, the Federal Aviation Agency modeling tool. Aircraft source emissions are presented on a source category, county basis. Where applicable, annual emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions are provided for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment areas. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.5.2 of Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulation , dated August 2005.

Locomotive Emissions Locomotives emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2 were calculated based on the estimated fuel consumption or individual railroad systems operating in New Jersey. NJDEP received specific fuel use data from shortline freight and commuter railroads. An estimation of fuel consumption based on gross ton miles and fuel consumption indexes were prepared for those railroads that did not submit statewide fuel data. Locomotive source emissions are presented on a source category, county basis. Where applicable, annual emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions are9 provided for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment areas. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.5.2 of Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulation , dated August 2005.

Commercial Marine Vessel Emissions Commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2 for Northern New Jersey were taken from the CMV emissions inventory report prepared by Starcrest Consulting Group, LLC. The inventory report relied on actual operational data and then used local activity parameters to extend emission estimates to those portions of the CMV not directly inventoried. From this information, emission estimates were prepared based on estimated horsepower demand. CMV emissions for Southern New Jersey were estimated using fuel purchases for diesel and residual fuels and the number of trips of self-propelled vessels along the Delaware River. Emissions on the Delaware river were allocated based on an allocation process agreed to by the two States. CMV source emissions are presented on a source category, county basis. Where applicable, annual emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions are provided for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment areas. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.5.2 of Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulation , dated August 2005.

F. Details on How New Jersey Meets Criteria 8 and 9 for the Onroad Source Inventory

Onroad Mobile Source Inventory New Jersey’s mobile source inventory was developed by using the travel demand model (TDM) used by the three Metropolitan Planning Organizati ons in the States as the basis for estimating actual county level and functional class vehicle miles traveled (VMT) estimates. In addition, county VMT were supplemented by the use of measured VMT that was not accounted for in the model, such as reductions due to transportation control measures or increases due to local roadway traffic. Estimates were developed from the aforementioned sources for each roadway functional class, by county, in each of the ozone attainment and nonattainment areas within the

State.

Mobile 6.2.03 Model was officially released by EPA on May 19, 2004 (69 FR28839) for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2, was used to generate emission factors for on-road vehicle emission estimates. The breakdown of emissions to the highway vehicle classifications have been provided for in the inventory. The methods used to determine on-road emission estimates are explained in the report. The report also explains how Mobile 6.2.03 emission factors were used, in conjunction with VMT data, to estimate mobile source emissions for the inventoried areas. It provides the sources for the key inputs into the mobile model. Key assumptions are also included. The VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2 mobile emissions are10 presented on county level. Where applicable, annual emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions are provided for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment areas. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.5.1 of Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulation , dated August 2005.

Conclusion New Jersey has a SIP that will ensure that the requirements of for emission inventory measures and reporting are adequately met. To comply with the emission inventory requirements, the State submitted a complete inventory containing point, area, biogenic, on-road, and non-road mobile source data, and accompanying documentation.

The SIP submittal does not present any partic ular inconvenient issues associated with enforceability.

Recommendation EPA is approving this SIP submittal as meeting the essential reporting requirements for an Emission Inventory. EPA will also make a finding that the SIP revision meets the requirements

for emission inventories.11 

### SECTION 2

Carbon Monoxide Limited Maintenance Plan

Attainment Inventory for the Nine Not Classified Areas and Camden County12 I. PREFACE

This document is to support EPA's approval of a revision to the New Jersey State Implementation Plan (SIP) which pertains to the following:

1. Where applicable, 2002 base year inventory annual emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions for CO nonattainment areas,

2. The Carbon Monoxide Limited Maintenance Plan Attainment Inventory for the Nine Not Classified Areas and Camden County and,

3. The 2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut

This TSD contains a detailed review of New Jersey’s CO Attainment Inventory submittal. Among the topics discussed below are the recent history and criteria for approval and EPA’s

final recommendations.

II. BACKGROUND

2002 CO Attainment Year Inventory Page 3, of the October 6, 1995-memorandum from Joseph W. Paisie, Group Leader, Integrated Policy and Strategies Group to Regional Air Branch Chiefs entitled “Limited Maintenance Plan Options for non classifiable CO Nonattainment Areas,” states that for inventory purposes, the State is only required to submit an attainment inventory to EPA that is based on monitoring data which shows attainment. There is no requirement to project emissions over the maintenance period. This means if 2002 is a calendar which has monitoring data which demonstrates attainment, the 2002 periodic base year inventory can be used as the attainment year inventory and no projection inventories are required over the years of the maintenance period. Only calendar year 2002 summary emissions data (based on typical winter season day) are required. In addition, this inventory should be consistent with EPA’s most recent guidance on emission inventories for nonattainment areas available at the time and should include emissions during the time period associated with the monitoring data showing attainment.

New Jersey submitted a limited maintenance plan (LMP) which included calendar year 2002 emissions inventory. The 2002 emissions inventory is also classified as the attainment year inventory for the LMP. New Jersey has elected 2002 because it is the attainment year base year that will be used for LMP and 2002 represents the one of the years of violation free monitored data in the area. The inventory included peak wintertime daily emissions from stationary point, stationary area, off-highway mobile, and highway mobile sources of CO. These emission estimates were prepared in accordance with EPA guidance. EPA is approving the CO inventory for the counties of Atlantic, Burlington, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Salem13 and Somerset (the 9 non-classified areas) and Camden County. Details of the inventory review are located in the periodic inventory (section 1) of this TSD.

New Jersey submitted drafts of the SIP and comments to Region 2 for the aforementioned documents on February 22, 2004, February 21, October 12 and July 25, 2005, and January 1,

2006.

Region II conducted reviews on the 2002 base year inventory, CO Attainment Inventory and the 2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration and provided written responses to New Jersey on February 22, 2004; April 4, May 19, May 23 and August 18, 2005 and January 30 and March 27, 2006.

On February 21, 2006, New Jersey submitted a proposed SIP revision for Fine Particulate Matter Transportation Conformity Budget for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut nonattainment Area. New Jersey is proposing to establish early transportation conformity emission budgets for directly emitted annual fine particulate matter (direct PM2.5) and annual NOx (a PM2.5 precursor) for the New Jersey portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area. EPA is allowing areas to establish early budgets as an alternative to other interim conformity tests prior to submittal of the PM2.5 attainment demonstration in April 2008. To establish an early budget, an area must meet certain criteria defined by EPA. The New Jersey portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long

Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area meets the criteria.

III. EPA RECOMMENDATIONS

EPA is approving the CO inventory for the counties of Atlantic, Burlington, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Salem and Somerset (the 9 non-classified areas) and Camden County. A more detailed discussion of how the emission inventory was reviewed and the results are presented in Section 1 of the technical support document (TSD).

The following tables presents a summary of the 2002 CO winter season daily emissions estimates in tons per winter day for the nine not classified areas and Camden County:14 2002 Attainment Inventory

Nine Not Classified Areas Carbon Monoxide Emission Inventory (Tons/Peak Winter Season Day)

County Point Area Off-Highway

Mobile Highway

Mobile Total

ATLANTIC 0.48 62.98 21.57 153.15 238.18

BURLINGTON 1.42 59.62 54.00 308.90 423.94

MERCER 1.46 14.32 43.01 224.90 283.69

MIDDLESEX 8.27 6.34 107.85 531.04 653.50

MONMOUTH 0.72 30.42 78.43 423.04 532.61

MORRIS 1.23 46.59 97.30 393.14 538.26

OCEAN 1.11 47.69 40.31 257.31 346.42

SALEM 2.21 13.72 6.97 50.24 73.14

SOMERSET 1.17 11.65 47.55 211.93 272.30

NINE NOT
CLASSIFIED

AREAS

TOTAL 18.07 293.33 496.99 2,553.65 3,362.0415 2002 Attainment Inventory Camden County Carbon Monoxide Emission Inventory (Tons/Peak Winter Season Day)

County Point Area Off-Highway

Mobile Highway

Mobile

CAMDEN 3.30 18.42 53.39 269.1016 

### SECTION 3

PM2.5 and NOx Annual Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration

for the New Jersey Portion of the

New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut

PM2.5 Nonattainment area17 

### I. PM2.5 General Background

Designation of PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas in New Jersey

EPA issued final area designations for PM2.5 on December 17, 2004. The following 10 counties are classified as PM2.5 nonattainment in the New Jersey portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Somerset and Union. Designations became effective on April 5, 2005. Transportation conformity for PM2.5 becomes effective on April 5, 2006. This is because there is a one-year grace period from the effective date of designations before transportation conformity applies for that standard.

States with designated PM2.5 nonattainment areas are required to develop a SIP and submit it to EPA within three years of designation or April of 2008. This plan must include enforceable measures for reducing air pollutant emissions leading to the formation of fine particles in the atmosphere. The plan must also provide steps for the area to attain the PM2.5 standard as quickly as possible. EPA has recently issued a proposed PM2.5 implementation rule to provide further guidance on what should be included in PM2.5 plans. State plans need to demonstrate that the nonattainment area will attain the standards "as expeditiously as practicable."



### II. Transportation Conformity Requirements for PM2.5

The Transportation Conformity Rules that established the criteria and procedures relating to transportation conformity for PM2.5 were promulgated by EPA on July 1, 2004. Before a SIP budget is available, through either an adequacy finding or approval by EPA, conformity of the transportation plan, transportation improvement program, or project not from a conforming plan

is demonstrated with the interim emissions tests. The interim emissions tests for PM2.5 are either the baseline year test or the build/no-greater-than-no-build test.

Four transportation related PM2.5 precursors - NOx, VOCs, SOx, and NH3 - must be considered in the conformity process in PM2.5 nonattainment areas. EPA requirements for the consideration of PM2.5 precursors are:

Regional emissions analysis must include NOx as a PM2.5 precursor in all PM2.5 nonattainment areas, unless the head of the state air agency and EPA Regional Administrator make a finding that NOx is not a significant contributor to the PM2.5 air quality problem in a given area.

Regional emissions analyses are not required for VOC, SOx or NH3 before an approved SIP budget for such precursors is established, unless the head of the state air agency or EPA Regional Administrator makes a finding that onroad emissions of any of these precursors is a significant

contributor.18 Progress Toward Attainment Requirement

To establish an early PM2.5 budget, the EPA requires that:

In reference to the voluntary SIP that includes early budgets, the preamble states: "To be approvable, such a SIP would have to include inventories for all source sectors and meet other SIP requirements. While these early SIPs would have to show some progress toward attainment, it is not a requirement that all of the reductions would come from onroad mobile vehicles."

The term "some progress toward attainment" has been interpreted by EPA to mean that the future inventories (which includes point, area, nonroad mobile and onroad mobile sources) for direct PM2.5 and annual NOx to be less than the base year values by at least five to ten percent. Annual NOx is the only PM2.5 precursor for which a budget is being established at this time. The additional information and data on PM2.5 precursors that will be available during the preparation of the PM2.5 attainment demonstration may result in the establishment of budgets for additional or different specific precursors.

The “progress toward attainment" test is passed when the total overall future emissions for direct PM2.5 and annual NOx are less than the total overall 2002 base year values by at least five to ten percent

.



### III. EPA’s review and Evaluation of New Jersey Submittal

New Jersey submitted drafts of the SIP and comments to Region 2 for the following documents on February 22, 2004, February 21, October 12 and July 25, 2005, and January 1, 2006 for the following program area elements:

1. Where applicable, 2002 base year inventory annual emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions for CO nonattainment areas,

2. The Carbon Monoxide Limited Maintenance Plan Attainment Inventory for the Nine Not Classified Areas and Camden County and

3. The 2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long

Island/Connecticut

Region II conducted reviews on the 2002 base year inventory, CO Attainment Inventory and the 2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration and provided written responses to New Jersey on February 22, 2004; April 4, May 19, May 23 and August 18, 2005 and January 30 and March 27, 2006.19 This TSD contains a detail discussion and summary of the review conducted by EPA for, where applicable, the 2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long

Island/Connecticut

On February 21, 2006, New Jersey submitted a proposed SIP revision for Fine Particulate Matter Transportation Conformity Budget for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut nonattainment Area. New Jersey is proposing to establish early transportation conformity emission budgets for directly emitted annual fine particulate matter (direct PM2.5) and annual NOx (a PM2.5 precursor) for the New Jersey portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area. EPA is allowing areas to establish early budgets as an alternative to other interim conformity tests prior to submittal of the PM2.5 attainment demonstration in April 2008. To establish an early budget, an area must meet certain criteria defined by EPA. The New Jersey portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long

Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area meets the criteria.



### IV. Particulate Matter Budget for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/ New Jersey/ Long Island/ Connecticut Nonattainment Area.

The establishment of early PM2.5 budgets is to require their use by the Metropolitan Planning Organizations in their transportation conformity determinations during the interim period prior to the PM2.5 attainment demonstration SIP budgets. Establishment of these early transportation conformity emission budgets will enable the affected Metropolitan Planning Organizations to demonstrate transportation conformity by the preferred method of remaining below area specific emission budgets instead of using one of the interim emissions tests. The early budgets are based on direct PM2.5 and annual NOx inventories that demonstrate that for the future year (in this case 2009) overall inventory (which includes point, area, nonroad mobile and onroad mobile sources) there is at least a five to ten percent reduction of emissions in comparison to the 2002 overall base year inventory in the New Jersey portion of the New York /New Jersey/Long

Island/Connecticut nonattainment area.

The early budgets must be used for future transportation conformity determinations by the North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority and the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission once approved by EPA. The North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority and the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission are two of the three Metropolitan Planning Organizations that cover the State of New Jersey.

2002 Base Year Inventory

The following tables present a summary of the PM2.5 and NOx annual emission estimates for the New Jersey portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5

nonattainment area:20 

### 2002 Annual PM2.5 Base Year Inventory the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut

PM2.5 Nonattainment Area (in Tons/Year)

County Point Area Off-Highway

Mobile Highway

Mobile

BERGEN 149 537 478 376

ESSEX 185 411 393 291

HUDSON 1,077 269 345 134

MERCER 188 530 203 141

MIDDLESEX 483 467 346 347

MONMOUTH 55 981 501 244

MORRIS 39 1,284 280 209

PASSAIC 19 543 178 141

SOMERSET 55 441 149 152

UNION 540 272 333 185

TOTAL 2,790 5,736 2,788 2,20021 

### 2002 Annual NOx Base Year Inventory 

## the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long

Island/Connecticut PM2.5 Nonattainment Area
(in Tons/Year)

County Point Area Off-Highway

Mobile Highway

Mobile

BERGEN 988 2,815 6,707 23,917

ESSEX 2,441 2,436 8,137 16,537

HUDSON 9,674 1,735 5,976 7,853

MERCER 13,034 1,257 2,427 8,505

MIDDLESEX 3,567 2,343 4,849 22,147

MONMOUTH 240 1,806 4,316 14,860

MORRIS 284 1,752 3,151 13,758

PASSAIC 122 1,361 2,413 8,748

SOMERSET 313 1,048 2,097 9,090

UNION 3,757 1,621 5,883 12,294

TOTAL 34,420 18,173 45,957 137,70122 2009 Projection Year Inventory New Jersey included in its submittal the 2009 projection year inventories with post-2002 controls showing that future emissions will be less than 5 percent of those contained in the 2002 base year emissions inventory. The State projected point, area, nonroad mobile and onroad mobile source emissions for the nonattainment area from 2002 to 2009. They did so using the appropriate growth factors and methodologies, in a manner acceptable to EPA.

The development of the projection year inventory involved several methodologies depending on the source category in question. This depended heavily upon what type of indicator was considered to have a significant impact on emissions. In all cases mentioned below the 2002 emission inventory was grown to 2009 projection year:

1. Major point sources were grown using growth factors from EPA EGAS version 4.0 for all point sources except those that combust fuel. For combustion sources, projection data were obtained from the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 report produced by the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA). Point source grow th factors by SCC category are presented in Attachment I-A of the New Jersey SIP document. Controls were applied to sources that were included in the emission statement program developed for the 2002 base year. This means any new controls after 2002 were not applied. This approach was taken so that 2009 projection inventories would represent a conservatively high case and calculat ed percent reductions between 2002 and 2009 would be conservatively low. However consider was taken for sources that were

retired.

2. Area sources were grown using growth factors from EPA EGAS version 4.0 for all area sources except those that combust fuel. For combustion sources, projection data were obtained from the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 report produced by the DOE-EIA. Area source growth factors by are presented in Attachment I-B of the New Jersey SIP document. Data projections using activity data such as fuel consumption were obtained from DOE-EIA; employment activity from New Jersey Division of Labor Employment Projections for employment activity; NJDOT for VMT and lane miles traveled and human population; activity data for were also obtained from the Asphalt Institute and th e NJDEP Bureau of Pesticides Operations for those specific SCC categories dealing with Asphalt and Pesticide Applications. Controls were not applied to area sources.

3. Off-highway mobile source emissions were developed by conducting independent runs for2009 emission inventories by using the NONROAD 4 model. Aircraft emissions were developed for 2002 using la ndings and take offs operation numbers for each aircraft type into the Emissions and Dispersion Modeling Systems for NOx

emissions and PM2.5 emission factors were used with LTO data to estimate PM2.5 annual emissions. Growth factors from FAA database based on future flight operations divided 2002 operations were used to project emissions from 2002 to23 2009. Calendar year 2002 locomotive emissions were not projected because it is

assumed the emissions will not increase in the future. For Commercial Marine Vessels (CMV), emissions were grown from 2002-2009 based on an extensive review of historical trends in the different types CMV calling in on the Northern NJ parts to project CMV growth. This information was obtained from the Maritime Association of the port of New York and New Jersey.

4. Calendar year 2009 highway mobile source emission factor data were generated from Mobile 6.2.03 Model. Emission factors from the Model were then applied to actual and projected vehicle miles traveled (VMT) based and fleet distribution data based on annual or projection measurements of VMT taken from the Transportation Demand Model and Highway Performance Monitoring System from the North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority and Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission.

EPA finds the methodologies for all sources to be acceptable for maintenance plan purposes. The table below presents a summary of 2009 annual PM2.5 and NOx emissions in the New Jersey portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area.

How New Jersey Demonstrates it Meets the Budget

The following table includes information which compares calendar years 2002 and 2009 emission inventories for the New Jersey portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long

Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area. The “progress toward attainment" test is passed when the total overall future emissions for direct PM2.5 and annual NOx are less than the total overall 2002 base year values by at least five to ten percent . For PM2.5, the 2009 PM2.5 emissions inventory is 6.47 percent lower than the 2002 base year emissions value. For NOx, the 2009 NOx emissions inventory is 32.37 percent lower than the 2002 base year emissions value. Both future emission budgets meet the five percent minimum requirement. The budget test is passed.24 

### 2002 versus 2009 Annual PM2.5 Base Year Inventory New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5 Nonattainment area (in Tons/Year)

Calendar

Year Point Area Off-Highway

Mobile Highway

Mobile Total

2002 2,790 5,736 2,788 2,200 13,952

200 9 3,035 5,930 2,788 1,296 13,04925 

### 2002 versus 2009 Annual NOx Base Year Inventory New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5 Nonattainment area (in Tons/Year)

Calendar

Year Point Area Off-Highway

Mobile Highway

Mobile Total

2002 34,420 18,173 45,957 137,701 236,551

200 9 19,488 37,694 36,804 66,004 159,990