NEW JERSEY 2ND CARBON MONOXIDE MAINTENANCE PLAN, 

CONFORMITY BUDGETS, AND EMISSIONS INVENTORIES 

TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT (TSD)

April 27, 2006 

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 

Region II 

Division of Environmental Planning and Protection 

Air Programs Branch 
 2 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Purpose: To evaluate New Jersey=s State Implementation Plan revisions which include: 

2nd Carbon Monoxide Maintenance Plan, Conformity Budgets, and Emissions Inventories. 

Section 1. New Jersey State 2002 Base Year 

Inventory SIP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 

Section 2. Carbon Monoxide Limited Maintenance 

Plan Attainment Inventory for the Nine 

Not Classified Areas and Camden County . . . . 11 

Section 3. PM2.5 and NOx Annual Emission Inventory 

Budget Demonstration for the New Jersey 

Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long 

Island/Connecticut PM2.5 

Nonattainment Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 
 3 

SECTION 1

New Jersey State 2002 Base Year Inventory SIP 
 4 

I. PREFACE 

This document is to support EPA's approval of a revision to the New Jersey State 

Implementation Plan (SIP) which pertains to the following: 

1. Where applicable, 2002 base year inventory annual emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, 

PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions for ozone 

nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions for CO nonattainment areas, 

2. The Carbon Monoxide Limited Maintenance Plan Attainment Inventory for the Nine Not 

Classified Areas and Camden County and, 

3. The 2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration 

for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut 

This TSD contains a detailed review of New Jersey’s 2002 Base Emission Inventory submittal. 

Among the topics discussed below are the recent history and criteria for approval and EPA’s 

final recommendations. 

II. BACKGROUND 

On November 18, 2002, EPA designated the 2002 base year inventory as the inventory for SIP 

planning process to address the pollutants for the eight hour-ozone, PM2.5 and CO national 

ambient air quality standard. Identifying the base year gives certainty to States, and the selection 

of 2002 harmonizes the date for EPA’s Consolidated Emissions Reporting rule (See 67 FR 

39602) dated June 10, 2002.) that requires submission of the ozone, PM2.5 and CO emission 

inventories every three years; 2002 is one of the required years for such updates. These 

requirements allow the EPA, based on the state’s progress in reducing emissions, to periodically 

reassess its policies and air quality standards and revise them as necessary. Most important, the 

2002 ozone, new PM2.5 and CO inventories will be used to develop and assess new control 

strategies that the states will need to submit in their attainment demonstration SIPs for the new 

national ambient air quality standards for ozone, PM2.5 and for CO. The base year inventory 

may also serve as part of statewide inventories for purposes of regional modeling in transport 

areas. The base year inventory plays an important role in modeling demonstrations for areas 

classified as nonattainment and outside transport regions. For the reasons stated above, ideally 

EPA would therefore emphasize the importance and benefits of developing a comprehensive, 

current, and accurate 2002 ozone and PM2.5 emission inventory (similar to the 1990 base year 

inventory effort). 
 5 

III. CRITERIA FOR APPROVAL 

There are general and specific components of an acceptable emission inventory. In general, the 

State must submit a revision to its SIP and the emission inventory must meet the minimum 

requirements for reporting by source category. Specifically, the source requirements are detailed 

below. 

The Level I and II review process is used to determine that all components of the base year 

inventory are present. The review also evaluates the level of supporting documentation provided 

by the State and assesses whether the emissions were developed according to current EPA or 

acceptable alternative guidance. The data quality is also evaluated. 

The Level III review process is outlined here and consists of 9 points that the inventory must 

adequately address. For a base year emission inventory to be acceptable it must pass all of the 

following acceptance criteria: 

Adequate documentation must be provided that enabled the reviewer to determine the emission 

estimation procedures and the data sources used to develop the inventory. 

1. Evidence that the inventory was quality assured by the state and its implementation 

documented. 

2. The point source inventory must be complete. 

3. Point source emissions must have been prepared or calculated according to the 

current EPA guidance. 

4. The area source inventory must be complete. 

5. The area source emissions must have been prepared or calculated according to the 

current EPA guidance. 

6. Biogenic emissions must have been prepared according to current EPA guidance or 

another approved technique. 

7. Non-road mobile emissions were prepared according to current EPA guidance for 

all of the source categories. 

8. The method (e.g., HPMS or a network transportation planning model) used to 

develop VMT estimates must follow EPA guidance. The VMT development 

methods were adequately described and documented in the inventory report. 

9. The MOBILE model must be correctly used to produce emission factors for each of 

the vehicle classes. 
 6 

IV. DETAILED ACTION AND EVALUATION 

New Jersey submitted drafts of the SIP and comments to Region 2 for the following documents 

on February 22, 2004, February 21, October 12 and July 25, 2005, and January 1, 2006 for the 

following program area elements: 

1. Where applicable, 2002 base year inventory annual emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, 

PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions for 

ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions for CO 

nonattainment areas, 

2. The Carbon Monoxide Limited Maintenance Plan Attainment Inventory for the 

Nine Not Classified Areas and Camden County and 

3. The 2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget 

Demonstration for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long 

Island/Connecticut 

On February 21, 2006, New Jersey submitted a proposed SIP revision. 

Region II conducted reviews on the 2002 base year inventory, CO Attainment Inventory and 

2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration and provided 

written responses to New Jersey on February 22, 2004; April 4, May 19, May 23 and August 18, 

2005 and January 30 and March 27, 2006. 

This TSD contains a detail discussion and summary of the review conducted by EPA for, where 

applicable, the 2002 base year inventory annual emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, 

NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions for ozone nonattainment areas, 

and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment areas. 

A. Details on How New Jersey Meets Criteria 1 for the Quality Assurance Plan

Quality Assurance Plan Implementation 

The Quality Assurance (QA) plan was implemented for all portions of the inventory. The QA 

plan included a QA/Quality control (QC) program for assessing data completeness and standard 

range checking. Critical data elements relative to the inventory sources were assessed for 

completeness. QA checks were performed relative to data collection and analysis, and double 

counting of emissions from point, area and mobile sources. QA/QC checks were conducted to 

ensure accuracy of units, unit conversions, transposition of figures, and calculations. The QA 
 7 

plan for the inventory was performed in accordance with section 6.0 of Emission Inventory 

Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze 

Regulation, dated August 2005. 

B. Details on How New Jersey Meets Criteria 2 and 3 for the Point Source Inventory

Point Source Inventory

New Jersey’s inventory includes major point sources based on the following thresholds for each 

pollutant: tons per year (tpy) or more for VOC; 25 tpy or more of NOx, and 100 tpy or more of 

CO, PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2. The inventory report describes how point source activity 

levels and their associated parameters were developed, and how the data were used to calculate 

emission estimates. The report provides referenced documents for activity level and emission 

factors used. Information on how rule effectiveness and control efficiencies were derived (with 

the associated sample calculations) are also provided. Plant summary information on detailed, 

plant, county and nonattainment area levels, are included in the inventory. Where applicable, 

annual emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx 

and CO summertime daily emissions are provided for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO 

wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment areas. The inventory was 

developed in accordance with section 5.3 of Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation 

of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulation, dated August 2005. 

C. Details on How New Jersey Meets Criteria 4 and 5 for the Area Source Inventory

Area Source Inventory 

The inventory lists the source categories that are included in (and excluded from) from the area 

source inventory. The inventory documentation includes emissions factors, activity levels, 

seasonal adjustment factors, and sample calculations. Referenced information for the input 

values to equations are included. Point source contributions have been correctly factored out of 

the area source category totals where appropriate. Rule effectiveness, control efficiency and rule 

penetration were correctly applied for several source categories and a discussion as to the basis 

for application is provided. Area source emissions are presented on a source category, county 

basis. Where applicable, annual emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, 

NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions are provided for ozone 

nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment 

areas. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.4 of Emission Inventory 

Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze 

Regulation, dated August 2005. 

D. Details on How New Jersey Meets Criterion 6 for the Biogenic Source Inventory

Biogenic Source Inventory 
 8 

EPA's Biogenic Emission Inventory System Model version 3.12 was used to estimate VOC, NOx 

and CO emissions. Information and key assumptions regarding the modeled day selected, 

meteorological inputs and referenced data, are included. The biogenic emissions are presented 

on county level. Where, applicable, annual emissions and summertime daily emissions are 

provided for VOC, NOx, and CO. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.6 

of Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS 

and Regional Haze Regulation, dated August 2005. 

E. Details on How New Jersey Meets Criteria 7 for Non Road Mobile Source Inventory

Nonroad Mobile Source Inventory

For the New Jersey, the predominant non-road mobile source categories (i.e., agricultural 

equipment, construction equipment, industrial equipment, airport service equipment, light 

commercial equipment, lawn and garden equipment...etc.) were developed by the Nonroad 

Emissions Equipment Model version 2.3(c) released by EPA's Office of Transportation and Air 

Quality (OTAQ). Nonroad mobile source emissions are presented on a source category, 

county basis. Where applicable, annual emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, 

PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions are provided for ozone 

nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment 

areas. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.5.2 of Emission Inventory 

Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze 

Regulation, dated August 2005. 

Aircraft Emissions

Aircraft emissions for are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2 were calculated 

based on the number of landing and takeoffs (LTO) cycles generated at each airport. These 

values were used as inputs to the Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System, the Federal 

Aviation Agency modeling tool. Aircraft source emissions are presented on a source category, 

county basis. Where applicable, annual emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, 

PM10 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions are provided for ozone 

nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment 

areas. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.5.2 of Emission Inventory 

Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze 

Regulation, dated August 2005. 

Locomotive Emissions

Locomotives emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2 were calculated based on 

the estimated fuel consumption or individual railroad systems operating in New Jersey. NJDEP 

received specific fuel use data from shortline freight and commuter railroads. An estimation of 

fuel consumption based on gross ton miles and fuel consumption indexes were prepared for those 

railroads that did not submit statewide fuel data. Locomotive source emissions are presented on 

a source category, county basis. Where applicable, annual emissions are provided for VOC, 

NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions are 
 9 

provided for ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO 

nonattainment areas. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.5.2 of Emission 

Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional 

Haze Regulation, dated August 2005. 

Commercial Marine Vessel Emissions

Commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2 for 

Northern New Jersey were taken from the CMV emissions inventory report prepared by Starcrest 

Consulting Group, LLC. The inventory report relied on actual operational data and then used 

local activity parameters to extend emission estimates to those portions of the CMV not directly 

inventoried. From this information, emission estimates were prepared based on estimated 

horsepower demand. CMV emissions for Southern New Jersey were estimated using fuel 

purchases for diesel and residual fuels and the number of trips of self-propelled vessels along the 

Delaware River. Emissions on the Delaware river were allocated based on an allocation process 

agreed to by the two States. CMV source emissions are presented on a source category, county 

basis. Where applicable, annual emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and 

SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions are provided for ozone nonattainment 

areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO nonattainment areas. The 

inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.5.2 of Emission Inventory Guidance for 

Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulation, dated 

August 2005. 

F. Details on How New Jersey Meets Criteria 8 and 9 for the Onroad Source 

Inventory

Onroad Mobile Source Inventory

New Jersey’s mobile source inventory was developed by using the travel demand model (TDM) 

used by the three Metropolitan Planning Organizations in the States as the basis for estimating 

actual county level and functional class vehicle miles traveled (VMT) estimates. In addition, 

county VMT were supplemented by the use of measured VMT that was not accounted for in the 

model, such as reductions due to transportation control measures or increases due to local 

roadway traffic. Estimates were developed from the aforementioned sources for each roadway 

functional class, by county, in each of the ozone attainment and nonattainment areas within the 

State. 

Mobile 6.2.03 Model was officially released by EPA on May 19, 2004 (69 FR28839) for VOC, 

NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2, was used to generate emission factors for on-road vehicle 

emission estimates. The breakdown of emissions to the highway vehicle classifications have 

been provided for in the inventory. The methods used to determine on-road emission estimates 

are explained in the report. The report also explains how Mobile 6.2.03 emission factors were 

used, in conjunction with VMT data, to estimate mobile source emissions for the inventoried 

areas. It provides the sources for the key inputs into the mobile model. Key assumptions are 

also included. The VOC, NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2 mobile emissions are 
 10 

presented on county level. Where applicable, annual emissions are provided for VOC, NOx, 

CO, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions are provided for 

ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions are provided for CO 

nonattainment areas. The inventory was developed in accordance with section 5.5.1 of Emission 

Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional 

Haze Regulation, dated August 2005. 

Conclusion 

New Jersey has a SIP that will ensure that the requirements of for emission inventory measures 

and reporting are adequately met. To comply with the emission inventory requirements, the 

State submitted a complete inventory containing point, area, biogenic, on-road, and non-road 

mobile source data, and accompanying documentation. 

The SIP submittal does not present any particular inconvenient issues associated with 

enforceability. 

Recommendation 

EPA is approving this SIP submittal as meeting the essential reporting requirements for an 

Emission Inventory. EPA will also make a finding that the SIP revision meets the requirements 

for emission inventories. 
 11 

SECTION 2

Carbon Monoxide Limited Maintenance Plan 

 Attainment Inventory for the Nine Not Classified Areas and Camden County 
 12 

I. PREFACE 

This document is to support EPA's approval of a revision to the New Jersey State 

Implementation Plan (SIP) which pertains to the following: 

1. Where applicable, 2002 base year inventory annual emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, 

PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions for ozone 

nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions for CO nonattainment areas, 

2. The Carbon Monoxide Limited Maintenance Plan Attainment Inventory for the Nine Not 

Classified Areas and Camden County and, 

3. The 2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration 

for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut 

This TSD contains a detailed review of New Jersey’s CO Attainment Inventory submittal. 

Among the topics discussed below are the recent history and criteria for approval and EPA’s 

final recommendations. 

II. BACKGROUND 

2002 CO Attainment Year Inventory

Page 3, of the October 6, 1995-memorandum from Joseph W. Paisie, Group Leader, Integrated 

Policy and Strategies Group to Regional Air Branch Chiefs entitled “Limited Maintenance Plan 

Options for non classifiable CO Nonattainment Areas,” states that for inventory purposes, the 

State is only required to submit an attainment inventory to EPA that is based on monitoring data 

which shows attainment. There is no requirement to project emissions over the maintenance 

period. This means if 2002 is a calendar which has monitoring data which demonstrates 

attainment, the 2002 periodic base year inventory can be used as the attainment year inventory 

and no projection inventories are required over the years of the maintenance period. Only 

calendar year 2002 summary emissions data (based on typical winter season day) are required. In 

addition, this inventory should be consistent with EPA’s most recent guidance on emission 

inventories for nonattainment areas available at the time and should include emissions during the 

time period associated with the monitoring data showing attainment. 

New Jersey submitted a limited maintenance plan (LMP) which included calendar year 2002 

emissions inventory. The 2002 emissions inventory is also classified as the attainment year 

inventory for the LMP. New Jersey has elected 2002 because it is the attainment year base year 

that will be used for LMP and 2002 represents the one of the years of violation free monitored 

data in the area. The inventory included peak wintertime daily emissions from stationary point, 

stationary area, off-highway mobile, and highway mobile sources of CO. These emission 

estimates were prepared in accordance with EPA guidance. EPA is approving the CO inventory 

for the counties of Atlantic, Burlington, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Salem 
13 

and Somerset (the 9 non-classified areas) and Camden County. Details of the inventory review 

are located in the periodic inventory (section 1) of this TSD. 

New Jersey submitted drafts of the SIP and comments to Region 2 for the aforementioned 

documents on February 22, 2004, February 21, October 12 and July 25, 2005, and January 1, 

2006.

 

Region II conducted reviews on the 2002 base year inventory, CO Attainment Inventory and the 

2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration and provided 

written responses to New Jersey on February 22, 2004; April 4, May 19, May 23 and August 18, 

2005 and January 30 and March 27, 2006. 

On February 21, 2006, New Jersey submitted a proposed SIP revision for Fine Particulate Matter 

Transportation Conformity Budget for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New 

Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut nonattainment Area. New Jersey is proposing to establish early 

transportation conformity emission budgets for directly emitted annual fine particulate matter 

(direct PM2.5) and annual NOx (a PM2.5 precursor) for the New Jersey portion of the New 

York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area. EPA is allowing areas to 

establish early budgets as an alternative to other interim conformity tests prior to submittal of the 

PM2.5 attainment demonstration in April 2008. To establish an early budget, an area must meet 

certain criteria defined by EPA. The New Jersey portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long 

Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area meets the criteria. 

III. EPA RECOMMENDATIONS 

EPA is approving the CO inventory for the counties of Atlantic, Burlington, Mercer, Middlesex, 

Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Salem and Somerset (the 9 non-classified areas) and Camden 

County. A more detailed discussion of how the emission inventory was reviewed and the results 

are presented in Section 1 of the technical support document (TSD). 

The following tables presents a summary of the 2002 CO winter season daily emissions 

estimates in tons per winter day for the nine not classified areas and Camden County: 
14 

2002 Attainment Inventory 

Nine Not Classified Areas 

Carbon Monoxide Emission Inventory 

(Tons/Peak Winter Season Day)

County Point Area Off-Highway 

Mobile

Highway 

Mobile

Total

ATLANTIC 0.48 62.98 21.57 153.15 238.18 

BURLINGTON 1.42 59.62 54.00 308.90 423.94 

MERCER 1.46 14.32 43.01 224.90 283.69 

MIDDLESEX 8.27 6.34 107.85 531.04 653.50 

MONMOUTH 0.72 30.42 78.43 423.04 532.61 

MORRIS 1.23 46.59 97.30 393.14 538.26 

OCEAN 1.11 47.69 40.31 257.31 346.42 

SALEM 2.21 13.72 6.97 50.24 73.14 

SOMERSET 1.17 11.65 47.55 211.93 272.30 

NINE NOT 

CLASSIFIED 

AREAS 

TOTAL

18.07 293.33 496.99 2,553.65 3,362.04
15 

2002 Attainment Inventory 

Camden County 

Carbon Monoxide Emission Inventory 

(Tons/Peak Winter Season Day)

County Point Area Off-Highway 

Mobile

Highway 

Mobile

CAMDEN 3.30 18.42 53.39 269.10 
16 

SECTION 3

PM2.5 and NOx Annual Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration 

for the New Jersey Portion of the 

New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut 

 PM2.5 Nonattainment area 
17 

I. PM2.5 General Background 

Designation of PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas in New Jersey

EPA issued final area designations for PM2.5 on December 17, 2004. The following 10 counties 

are classified as PM2.5 nonattainment in the New Jersey portion of the New York/New 

Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Mercer, 

Middlesex Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Somerset and Union. Designations became effective on 

April 5, 2005. Transportation conformity for PM2.5 becomes effective on April 5, 2006. This is 

because there is a one-year grace period from the effective date of designations before 

transportation conformity applies for that standard. 

States with designated PM2.5 nonattainment areas are required to develop a SIP and submit it to 

EPA within three years of designation or April of 2008. This plan must include enforceable 

measures for reducing air pollutant emissions leading to the formation of fine particles in the 

atmosphere. The plan must also provide steps for the area to attain the PM2.5 standard as 

quickly as possible. EPA has recently issued a proposed PM2.5 implementation rule to provide 

further guidance on what should be included in PM2.5 plans. State plans need to demonstrate 

that the nonattainment area will attain the standards "as expeditiously as practicable." 

II. Transportation Conformity Requirements for PM2.5 

The Transportation Conformity Rules that established the criteria and procedures relating to 

transportation conformity for PM2.5 were promulgated by EPA on July 1, 2004. Before a SIP 

budget is available, through either an adequacy finding or approval by EPA, conformity of the 

transportation plan, transportation improvement program, or project not from a conforming plan 

is demonstrated with the interim emissions tests. The interim emissions tests for PM2.5 are 

either the baseline year test or the build/no-greater-than-no-build test. 

Four transportation related PM2.5 precursors - NOx, VOCs, SOx, and NH3 - must be considered 

in the conformity process in PM2.5 nonattainment areas. EPA requirements for the 

consideration of PM2.5 precursors are: 

Regional emissions analysis must include NOx as a PM2.5 precursor in all PM2.5 nonattainment 

areas, unless the head of the state air agency and EPA Regional Administrator make a finding 

that NOx is not a significant contributor to the PM2.5 air quality problem in a given area. 

Regional emissions analyses are not required for VOC, SOx or NH3 before an approved SIP 

budget for such precursors is established, unless the head of the state air agency or EPA Regional 

Administrator makes a finding that onroad emissions of any of these precursors is a significant 

contributor. 
18 

Progress Toward Attainment Requirement

To establish an early PM2.5 budget, the EPA requires that: 

In reference to the voluntary SIP that includes early budgets, the preamble states: "To be 

approvable, such a SIP would have to include inventories for all source sectors and meet other 

SIP requirements. While these early SIPs would have to show some progress toward attainment, 

it is not a requirement that all of the reductions would come from onroad mobile vehicles." 

The term "some progress toward attainment" has been interpreted by EPA to mean that the future 

inventories (which includes point, area, nonroad mobile and onroad mobile sources) for direct 

PM2.5 and annual NOx to be less than the base year values by at least five to ten percent. 

Annual NOx is the only PM2.5 precursor for which a budget is being established at this time. 

The additional information and data on PM2.5 precursors that will be available during the 

preparation of the PM2.5 attainment demonstration may result in the establishment of budgets 

for additional or different specific precursors. 

The “progress toward attainment" test is passed when the total overall future emissions for 

direct PM2.5 and annual NOx are less than the total overall 2002 base year values by at 

least five to ten percent. 

III. EPA’s review and Evaluation of New Jersey Submittal

New Jersey submitted drafts of the SIP and comments to Region 2 for the following documents 

on February 22, 2004, February 21, October 12 and July 25, 2005, and January 1, 2006 for the 

following program area elements: 

1. Where applicable, 2002 base year inventory annual emissions for VOC, NOx, CO, 

PM2.5, PM10, NH3 and SO2; VOC, NOx and CO summertime daily emissions for 

ozone nonattainment areas, and CO wintertime daily emissions for CO 

nonattainment areas, 

2. The Carbon Monoxide Limited Maintenance Plan Attainment Inventory for the 

Nine Not Classified Areas and Camden County and 

3. The 2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget 

Demonstration for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long 

Island/Connecticut 

 

Region II conducted reviews on the 2002 base year inventory, CO Attainment Inventory and the 

2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget Demonstration and provided 

written responses to New Jersey on February 22, 2004; April 4, May 19, May 23 and August 18, 

2005 and January 30 and March 27, 2006. 
19 

This TSD contains a detail discussion and summary of the review conducted by EPA for, where 

applicable, the 2009 PM2.5 and NOx Annual Projected Emission Inventory Budget 

Demonstration for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long 

Island/Connecticut 

On February 21, 2006, New Jersey submitted a proposed SIP revision for Fine Particulate Matter 

Transportation Conformity Budget for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New 

Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut nonattainment Area. New Jersey is proposing to establish early 

transportation conformity emission budgets for directly emitted annual fine particulate matter 

(direct PM2.5) and annual NOx (a PM2.5 precursor) for the New Jersey portion of the New 

York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area. EPA is allowing areas to 

establish early budgets as an alternative to other interim conformity tests prior to submittal of the 

PM2.5 attainment demonstration in April 2008. To establish an early budget, an area must meet 

certain criteria defined by EPA. The New Jersey portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long 

Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area meets the criteria. 

IV. Particulate Matter Budget for the New Jersey Portion of the New York/ 

New Jersey/ Long Island/ Connecticut Nonattainment Area. 

The establishment of early PM2.5 budgets is to require their use by the Metropolitan Planning 

Organizations in their transportation conformity determinations during the interim period prior to 

the PM2.5 attainment demonstration SIP budgets. Establishment of these early transportation 

conformity emission budgets will enable the affected Metropolitan Planning Organizations to 

demonstrate transportation conformity by the preferred method of remaining below area specific 

emission budgets instead of using one of the interim emissions tests. The early budgets are 

based on direct PM2.5 and annual NOx inventories that demonstrate that for the future year (in 

this case 2009) overall inventory (which includes point, area, nonroad mobile and onroad mobile 

sources) there is at least a five to ten percent reduction of emissions in comparison to the 2002 

overall base year inventory in the New Jersey portion of the New York /New Jersey/Long 

Island/Connecticut nonattainment area. 

The early budgets must be used for future transportation conformity determinations by the North 

Jersey Transportation Planning Authority and the Delaware Valley Regional Planning 

Commission once approved by EPA. The North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority and 

the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission are two of the three Metropolitan Planning 

Organizations that cover the State of New Jersey. 

2002 Base Year Inventory

The following tables present a summary of the PM2.5 and NOx annual emission estimates for 

the New Jersey portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5 

nonattainment area: 
20 

 

2002 Annual PM2.5 Base Year Inventory 

the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut 

PM2.5 Nonattainment Area 

(in Tons/Year)

County Point Area Off-Highway 

Mobile

Highway 

Mobile

BERGEN 149 537 478 376 

ESSEX 185 411 393 291 

HUDSON 1,077 269 345 134 

MERCER 188 530 203 141 

MIDDLESEX 483 467 346 347 

MONMOUTH 55 981 501 244 

MORRIS 39 1,284 280 209 

PASSAIC 19 543 178 141 

SOMERSET 55 441 149 152 

UNION 540 272 333 185 

TOTAL 2,790 5,736 2,788 2,200
21 

2002 Annual NOx Base Year Inventory 

the New Jersey Portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long 

Island/Connecticut PM2.5 Nonattainment Area

(in Tons/Year)

County Point Area Off-Highway 

Mobile

Highway 

Mobile

BERGEN 988 2,815 6,707 23,917 

ESSEX 2,441 2,436 8,137 16,537 

HUDSON 9,674 1,735 5,976 7,853 

MERCER 13,034 1,257 2,427 8,505 

MIDDLESEX 3,567 2,343 4,849 22,147 

MONMOUTH 240 1,806 4,316 14,860 

MORRIS 284 1,752 3,151 13,758 

PASSAIC 122 1,361 2,413 8,748 

SOMERSET 313 1,048 2,097 9,090 

UNION 3,757 1,621 5,883 12,294 

TOTAL 34,420 18,173 45,957 137,701
22 

2009 Projection Year Inventory

New Jersey included in its submittal the 2009 projection year inventories with post-2002 controls 

showing that future emissions will be less than 5 percent of those contained in the 2002 base 

year emissions inventory. The State projected point, area, nonroad mobile and onroad mobile 

source emissions for the nonattainment area from 2002 to 2009. They did so using the 

appropriate growth factors and methodologies, in a manner acceptable to EPA. 

The development of the projection year inventory involved several methodologies depending on 

the source category in question. This depended heavily upon what type of indicator was 

considered to have a significant impact on emissions. In all cases mentioned below the 2002 

emission inventory was grown to 2009 projection year: 

1. Major point sources were grown using growth factors from EPA EGAS version 4.0 

for all point sources except those that combust fuel. For combustion sources, 

projection data were obtained from the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 report 

produced by the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Information 

Administration (EIA). Point source growth factors by SCC category are presented 

in Attachment I-A of the New Jersey SIP document. Controls were applied to 

sources that were included in the emission statement program developed for the 

2002 base year. This means any new controls after 2002 were not applied. This 

approach was taken so that 2009 projection inventories would represent a 

conservatively high case and calculated percent reductions between 2002 and 2009 

would be conservatively low. However consider was taken for sources that were 

retired. 

2. Area sources were grown using growth factors from EPA EGAS version 4.0 for all 

area sources except those that combust fuel. For combustion sources, projection 

data were obtained from the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 report produced by the 

DOE-EIA. Area source growth factors by are presented in Attachment I-B of the 

New Jersey SIP document. Data projections using activity data such as fuel 

consumption were obtained from DOE-EIA; employment activity from New Jersey 

Division of Labor Employment Projections for employment activity; NJDOT for 

VMT and lane miles traveled and human population; activity data for were also 

obtained from the Asphalt Institute and the NJDEP Bureau of Pesticides Operations 

for those specific SCC categories dealing with Asphalt and Pesticide Applications. 

Controls were not applied to area sources. 

3. Off-highway mobile source emissions were developed by conducting independent 

runs for2009 emission inventories by using the NONROAD 4 model. Aircraft 

emissions were developed for 2002 using landings and take offs operation numbers 

for each aircraft type into the Emissions and Dispersion Modeling Systems for NOx 

emissions and PM2.5 emission factors were used with LTO data to estimate PM2.5 

annual emissions. Growth factors from FAA database based on future flight 

operations divided 2002 operations were used to project emissions from 2002 to 
23 

2009. Calendar year 2002 locomotive emissions were not projected because it is 

assumed the emissions will not increase in the future. For Commercial Marine 

Vessels (CMV), emissions were grown from 2002-2009 based on an extensive review 

of historical trends in the different types CMV calling in on the Northern NJ parts 

to project CMV growth. This information was obtained from the Maritime 

Association of the port of New York and New Jersey. 

4. Calendar year 2009 highway mobile source emission factor data were generated 

from Mobile 6.2.03 Model. Emission factors from the Model were then applied to 

actual and projected vehicle miles traveled (VMT) based and fleet distribution data 

based on annual or projection measurements of VMT taken from the 

Transportation Demand Model and Highway Performance Monitoring System from 

the North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority and Delaware Valley Regional 

Planning Commission. 

EPA finds the methodologies for all sources to be acceptable for maintenance plan purposes. 

The table below presents a summary of 2009 annual PM2.5 and NOx emissions in the New 

Jersey portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area. 

How New Jersey Demonstrates it Meets the Budget

The following table includes information which compares calendar years 2002 and 2009 

emission inventories for the New Jersey portion of the New York/New Jersey/Long 

Island/Connecticut PM2.5 nonattainment area. The “progress toward attainment" test is 

passed when the total overall future emissions for direct PM2.5 and annual NOx are less 

than the total overall 2002 base year values by at least five to ten percent. For PM2.5, the 

2009 PM2.5 emissions inventory is 6.47 percent lower than the 2002 base year emissions value. 

For NOx, the 2009 NOx emissions inventory is 32.37 percent lower than the 2002 base year 

emissions value. Both future emission budgets meet the five percent minimum requirement. The 

budget test is passed. 
24 

2002 versus 2009 Annual PM2.5 Base Year Inventory 

New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5 Nonattainment area 

(in Tons/Year)

Calendar 

Year

Point Area Off-Highway 

Mobile

Highway 

Mobile

Total

2002 2,790 5,736 2,788 2,200 13,952

 2009 3,035 5,930 2,788 1,296 13,049
25 

2002 versus 2009 Annual NOx Base Year Inventory 

New York/New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut PM2.5 Nonattainment area 

(in Tons/Year)

Calendar 

Year

Point Area Off-Highway 

Mobile

Highway 

Mobile

Total

2002 34,420 18,173 45,957 137,701 236,551

 2009 19,488 37,694 36,804 66,004 159,990