Reference Case

Imported Crude Oil 6.036173

Domestic Crude Oil 9.416503

Total Crude Oil 15.305449

Light Product Demand 16.048521

Imported Light Products 1.651799

Exported Products 2.946979

Net Imported Products -0.831638

Other Product Demand 5.790852

Refinery Capacity 18.129658

refinery Utilization 84.42215

Reduction in Imported Crude

Reduction in Domestic Crude

Reduction in Total Crude

Percent change in Imported Crude

Reduction in Light Product Demand

Reduction in Imported Light Products

Reduction in Exported Products

Reduction in Net Imported Products

Reduction in Other Product Demand

Change in Refinery Utilization

Percent reduction in Imported Crude Oil

Percent reduction of Crude Oil of Total Product Demand

Adjusted Reduction in Imported Crude

Adjusted Reduction in Domestic Crude

Percent reduction in imported crude oil

Percent reduction in domestic crude oil

Percent reduction in net imported product

2021

Low Demand Case Reference Case Low Demand Case Reference Case Low Demand Case

5.720737 6.080156 5.724592 6.109093 5.706623

9.410554 9.288825 9.276834 9.190735 9.172777

14.984062 15.231005 14.863449 15.165613 14.745186

15.724924 15.99842 15.634081 15.935719 15.524851

1.672074 1.670363 1.686348 1.67361 1.702688

2.922789 3.008449 2.975198 3.060099 3.022048

-0.796818 -0.891071 -0.846825 -0.942516 -0.889716

5.755222 5.839431 5.80266 5.887284 5.846394

18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658

82.649437 84.011528 81.984161 83.650841 81.331833

0.315436 0.355564 0.40247

0.005949 0.011991 0.017958

0.321387 0.367556 0.420427

98.15 96.74 95.73

0.323597 0.364339 0.410868

-0.020275 -0.015985 -0.029078

0.02419 0.033251 0.038051

-0.03482 -0.044246 -0.0528

0.03563 0.036771 0.04089

0 0 0

1.772713 2.027367 2.319008

98.15 96.74 95.73

0.993170518

0.359227

0.394047

0.35070183

0.284149419 0.322968343 0.366041208

0.005358947 0.010891748 0.016332566

104.9225212 105.9206716 106.4520658

1.978797849 3.572056715 4.749835262

-10.76029753 -4.387397451 -7.077212146

96.14102148 105.1053309 104.1246889

2021 2022 2023
0.8369
Reference Case Low Demand Case Reference Case Low Demand Case Reference Case

6.16848 5.730359 6.183692 5.706623 6.31792

9.072848 9.050695 9.004183 8.967821 8.832944

15.108777 14.648503 15.05687 14.543438 15.020941

15.848835 15.394184 15.751699 15.249759 15.65092

1.683369 1.709556 1.663395 1.703872 1.650042

3.090325 3.051506 3.116761 3.076465 3.16569

-0.975656 -0.918129 -1.006822 -0.946392 -1.068271

5.933704 5.888986 5.970933 5.922499 5.985422

18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658

83.337349 80.798561 83.051041 80.21904 82.852859

0.438121 0.477069

0.022153 0.036362

0.460274 0.513432

95.19 92.92

0.454651 0.50194

-0.026187 -0.040477

0.038819 0.040296

-0.057527 -0.06043

0.044718 0.048434

0 0

2.538788 2.832001

95.19 92.92

0.398887698 0.435085985

0.020169221 0.033162072

104.8332196 103.5737546

5.300750965 7.894348329

-5.759802574 -8.064111248

104.374168 103.4039916

2024 2025 2026

Low Demand Case Reference Case Low Demand Case Reference Case Low Demand Case

5.823794 6.462374 5.946767 6.583871 6.021569

8.767463 8.66966 8.575686 8.515922 8.426367

14.461332 15.002621 14.393038 14.971308 14.31945

15.098667 15.564079 14.965418 15.49104 14.836449

1.686778 1.641182 1.684957 1.625994 1.673241

3.115207 3.210329 3.141325 3.233226 3.177702

-1.005425 -1.122708 -1.042063 -1.158872 -1.086931

5.935211 6.016669 5.959201 6.042064 5.976262

18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658

79.766151 82.751808 79.389465 82.579086 78.983559

0.494126 0.515607 0.562302

0.065481 0.093974 0.089555

0.559609 0.609583 0.651858

88.30 84.58 86.26

0.552253 0.598661 0.654591

-0.036736 -0.043775 -0.047247

0.050483 0.069004 0.055524

-0.062846 -0.080645 -0.071941

0.050211 0.057468 0.065802

0 0 0

3.086708 3.362343 3.595527

88.30 84.58 86.26

0.452944186 0.470446821 0.510940318

0.060023634 0.085743152 0.081374884

98.00157096 93.89792682 93.2666926

12.98705364 17.11373929 14.85411515

-6.65202362 -7.312151618 -7.217789429

104.336601 103.6995145 100.9030183

2026 2027 2028

Reference Case Low Demand Case Reference Case Low Demand Case

6.695328 6.086473 6.765434 6.10741

8.380416 8.307769 8.304714 8.230645

14.947302 14.2658 14.940206 14.208113

15.411539 14.705967 15.348841 14.587427

1.595653 1.648039 1.568439 1.630033

3.270561 3.232828 3.331861 3.280523

-1.214273 -1.162049 -1.293569 -1.222869

6.031832 5.960508 6.030659 5.944792

18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658

82.446686 78.68763 82.407532 78.369438

0.608855 0.658024

0.072647 0.074069

0.681502 0.732093

89.34 89.88

0.705572 0.761414

-0.052386 -0.061594

0.037733 0.051338

-0.052224 -0.0707

0.189523 0.085867

0 0

3.759056 4.038094

89.34 89.88

0.479939046 0.591337096

0.057265083 0.066562538

81.27765741 92.79844489 98.49445

9.697839351 10.44564942 8.859419

-7.424614355 -8.0894231 -7.27448

83.5508824 95.15467121 100.0794

2029 2030
Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

Crude Oil

 Canada 2.225 2.425 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.2

 Mexico 1.102 0.975 0.74 0.74 0.55 0.55

 North Sea 0.01 0.009 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019

 OPEC 4.209 4.031 3.157 3.157 2.1 2.1

 Latin America 1.072 1.087 0.747 0.747 0.62 0.62

 North Africa 0.187 0.176 0.11 0.11 0.071 0.071

 West Africa 1.102 0.628 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4

 Persian Gulf 1.848 2.14 1.8 1.8 1 1

 Other Middle East 0.047 0.009 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005

 Other Latin America 0.729 0.695 0.57 0.57 0.48 0.48

 Other Africa 0.187 0.134 0.11 0.11 0.1 0.1

 Other Asia 0.426 0.249 0.18 0.18 0.14 0.14

Total Crude Oil 8.935 8.527 7.481 7.481 6.585 6.585

Light Refined Products 1/

 Canada 0.513 0.464 0.48 0.48 0.55 0.55

 Northern Europe 0.551 0.464 0.42 0.42 0.378 0.378

 Southern Europe 0.114 0.08 0.075 0.075 0.07 0.07

 OPEC 0.171 0.144 0.12 0.12 0.112 0.112

 Latin America 0.06327 0.05328 0.036 0.036 0.0336 0.0336

 North Africa 0.05301 0.04464 0.0312 0.0312 0.02912 0.02912

 West Africa 0.04617 0.03888 0.042 0.042 0.0392 0.0392

 Persian Gulf 0.00855 0.0072 0.0108 0.0108 0.01008 0.01008

 Caribbean Basin 0.019 0.016 0.03 0.03 0.028 0.028

 Asian Exporters 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14

 Other 0.342 0.272 0.225 0.225 0.122 0.122

Total Light Refined Products 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4

Heavy Refined Products 2/

 Canada 0.06611 0.05181 0.06958 0.06958 0.085316 0.085316

 Northern Europe 0.06611 0.05181 0.0497 0.0497 0.06094 0.06094

 Southern Europe 0.01202 0.00942 0.00994 0.00994 0.012188 0.012188

 OPEC 0.08414 0.06594 0.06958 0.06958 0.085316 0.085316

 Latin America 0.031132 0.024398 0.020874 0.020874 0.025595 0.025595

 North Africa 0.026083 0.020441 0.018091 0.018091 0.022182 0.022182

 West Africa 0.022718 0.017804 0.024353 0.024353 0.029861 0.029861

 Persian Gulf 0.004207 0.003297 0.006262 0.006262 0.007678 0.007678

Imported Liquids by Source

(million barrels per day)

Sources 2011 2012

2013 2014
 Caribbean Basin 0.04207 0.03297 0.02485 0.02485 0.03047 0.03047

 Asian Exporters 0.2404 0.1884 0.16898 0.16898 0.207196 0.207196

 Other 0.09015 0.07065 0.10437 0.10437 0.127974 0.127974

Total Heavy Refined Products 0.601 0.471 0.497 0.497 0.6094 0.6094

 - - = Not applicable.

 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System.

natural gasoline, liquefied petroleum gases, olefins, ethanol, and biodiesel.

 2/ Includes residual fuel oil, asphalt, road oil, lubricants, petrochemical feedstocks, and unfinished oils.

 OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar,

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.

 Caribbean Basin = Bahama Islands, Colombia, Guatemala, Jamaica, Mexico, Netherlands Antilles, Panama, Puerto Rico, Trin

and Tobago, and the Virgin Islands.

 1/ Includes motor gasoline, motor gasoline blending components, aviation gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, ethane,
Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference

3.402072 3.441843 3.391061 3.368052 3.32063 3.342302 3.333975 3.319475 3.363526

0.394856 0.398599 0.328377 0.321906 0.35593 0.342277 0.361748 0.340627 0.356205

0.018935 0.018798 0.017764 0.017557 0.017904 0.017572 0.017889 0.017408 0.017737

1.946641 1.861744 1.669054 1.635583 1.754327 1.645482 1.73062 1.620262 1.660524

0.583992 0.558523 0.500716 0.490675 0.526298 0.493645 0.519186 0.486079 0.498157

0.058399 0.055852 0.050072 0.049067 0.05263 0.049364 0.051919 0.048608 0.049816

0.291996 0.279262 0.250358 0.245337 0.263149 0.246822 0.259593 0.243039 0.249079

1.012253 0.968107 0.867908 0.850503 0.91225 0.855651 0.899922 0.842536 0.863473

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.378697 0.375968 0.355285 0.351135 0.35808 0.351433 0.357781 0.348156 0.354742

0.094674 0.093992 0.088821 0.087784 0.08952 0.087858 0.089445 0.087039 0.088686

0.075739 0.075194 0.071057 0.070227 0.071616 0.070287 0.071556 0.069631 0.070948

6.311614 6.266138 5.921421 5.852242 5.968007 5.85721 5.963013 5.802598 5.912368

0.564721 0.56701 0.610421 0.610057 0.626868 0.626485 0.642126 0.643365 0.656992

0.344342 0.345738 0.372208 0.371986 0.382237 0.382003 0.39154 0.392296 0.400605

0.055095 0.055318 0.059553 0.059518 0.061158 0.06112 0.062646 0.062767 0.064097

0.110189 0.110636 0.119106 0.119036 0.122316 0.122241 0.125293 0.125535 0.128194

0.033057 0.033191 0.035732 0.035711 0.036695 0.036672 0.037588 0.03766 0.038458

0.028649 0.028765 0.030968 0.030949 0.031802 0.031783 0.032576 0.032639 0.03333

0.038566 0.038723 0.041687 0.041662 0.042811 0.042784 0.043852 0.043937 0.044868

0.009917 0.009957 0.01072 0.010713 0.011008 0.011002 0.011276 0.011298 0.011537

0.027547 0.027659 0.029777 0.029759 0.030579 0.03056 0.031323 0.031384 0.032048

0.137737 0.138295 0.148883 0.148794 0.152895 0.152801 0.156616 0.156918 0.160242

0.137737 0.138295 0.148883 0.148794 0.152895 0.152801 0.156616 0.156918 0.160242

1.377368 1.382952 1.488831 1.487945 1.528947 1.528011 1.56616 1.569184 1.602419

0.128051 0.12805 0.127895 0.128081 0.127438 0.127654 0.126871 0.126902 0.126525

0.091465 0.091464 0.091353 0.091487 0.091027 0.091181 0.090622 0.090644 0.090375

0.018293 0.018293 0.018271 0.018297 0.018205 0.018236 0.018124 0.018129 0.018075

0.128051 0.12805 0.127895 0.128081 0.127438 0.127654 0.126871 0.126902 0.126525

0.008964 0.008963 0.008953 0.008966 0.008921 0.008936 0.008881 0.008883 0.008857

0.089636 0.089635 0.089526 0.089657 0.089207 0.089358 0.08881 0.088831 0.088568

0.020488 0.020488 0.020463 0.020493 0.02039 0.020425 0.020299 0.020304 0.020244

0.008964 0.008963 0.008953 0.008966 0.008921 0.008936 0.008881 0.008883 0.008857

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0.045733 0.045732 0.045677 0.045743 0.045514 0.045591 0.045311 0.045322 0.045188

0.310982 0.310978 0.310601 0.311054 0.309492 0.310017 0.308116 0.30819 0.307275

0.192077 0.192074 0.191842 0.192122 0.191157 0.191481 0.190307 0.190353 0.189788

0.914653 0.91464 0.913533 0.914865 0.910272 0.911813 0.906223 0.906441 0.903751

, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar,

tilles, Panama, Puerto Rico, Trinidad

l, distillate fuel oil, ethane,
Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

3.31799 3.282061 3.211426 3.30939 3.240782 3.319465 3.243845 3.319785 3.246299

0.320217 0.387649 0.345212 0.397117 0.349585 0.398189 0.346169 0.398315 0.339689

0.017122 0.017818 0.01703 0.018109 0.017162 0.01824 0.017174 0.018327 0.01712

1.555572 1.735113 1.608989 1.786411 1.615504 1.815287 1.619366 1.841174 1.60704

0.466672 0.520534 0.482697 0.535923 0.484651 0.544586 0.48581 0.552352 0.482112

0.046667 0.052053 0.04827 0.053592 0.048465 0.054459 0.048581 0.055235 0.048211

0.233336 0.260267 0.241348 0.267962 0.242326 0.272293 0.242905 0.276176 0.241056

0.808898 0.902259 0.836674 0.928934 0.840062 0.943949 0.84207 0.957411 0.835661

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.342447 0.356362 0.340591 0.36217 0.343244 0.364809 0.343476 0.366546 0.342397

0.085612 0.08909 0.085148 0.090543 0.085811 0.091202 0.085869 0.091636 0.085599

0.068489 0.071272 0.068118 0.072434 0.068649 0.072962 0.068695 0.073309 0.068479

5.70745 5.939366 5.676513 6.036173 5.720737 6.080156 5.724592 6.109093 5.706623

0.661917 0.668788 0.676233 0.677238 0.68555 0.684849 0.691402 0.68618 0.698102

0.403608 0.407798 0.412337 0.41295 0.418019 0.417591 0.421587 0.418403 0.425672

0.064577 0.065248 0.065974 0.066072 0.066883 0.066815 0.067454 0.066944 0.068108

0.129154 0.130495 0.131948 0.132144 0.133766 0.133629 0.134908 0.133889 0.136215

0.038746 0.039149 0.039584 0.039643 0.04013 0.040089 0.040472 0.040167 0.040865

0.03358 0.033929 0.034306 0.034357 0.034779 0.034744 0.035076 0.034811 0.035416

0.045204 0.045673 0.046182 0.04625 0.046818 0.04677 0.047218 0.046861 0.047675

0.011624 0.011745 0.011875 0.011893 0.012039 0.012027 0.012142 0.01205 0.012259

0.032289 0.032624 0.032987 0.033036 0.033441 0.033407 0.033727 0.033472 0.034054

0.161443 0.163119 0.164935 0.16518 0.167207 0.167036 0.168635 0.167361 0.170269

0.161443 0.163119 0.164935 0.16518 0.167207 0.167036 0.168635 0.167361 0.170269

1.614431 1.631191 1.649348 1.651799 1.672074 1.670363 1.686348 1.67361 1.702688

0.126109 0.125649 0.126299 0.125257 0.125262 0.125064 0.125042 0.124889 0.124952

0.090078 0.089749 0.090213 0.089469 0.089473 0.089332 0.089316 0.089207 0.089251

0.018016 0.01795 0.018043 0.017894 0.017895 0.017866 0.017863 0.017841 0.01785

0.126109 0.125649 0.126299 0.125257 0.125262 0.125064 0.125042 0.124889 0.124952

0.008828 0.008795 0.008841 0.008768 0.008768 0.008755 0.008753 0.008742 0.008747

0.088276 0.087954 0.088409 0.08768 0.087684 0.087545 0.087529 0.087422 0.087466

0.020177 0.020104 0.020208 0.020041 0.020042 0.02001 0.020007 0.019982 0.019992

0.008828 0.008795 0.008841 0.008768 0.008768 0.008755 0.008753 0.008742 0.008747

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
0.045039 0.044875 0.045107 0.044735 0.044737 0.044666 0.044658 0.044603 0.044626

0.306264 0.305147 0.306725 0.304196 0.304209 0.303728 0.303674 0.303302 0.303455

0.189163 0.188473 0.189448 0.187885 0.187894 0.187597 0.187563 0.187334 0.187428

0.900778 0.897492 0.902133 0.894693 0.894732 0.893317 0.893158 0.892066 0.892515
Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference

3.341267 3.228735 3.316306 3.256208 3.333754 3.319707 3.370225 3.330852 3.393368

0.405117 0.35592 0.43064 0.350426 0.442892 0.354792 0.461959 0.38079 0.473708

0.018505 0.017191 0.018551 0.01712 0.018954 0.017471 0.019387 0.01784 0.019752

1.866933 1.629971 1.880214 1.586392 1.972661 1.625153 2.048577 1.699916 2.124246

0.56008 0.488991 0.564064 0.475918 0.591798 0.487546 0.614573 0.509975 0.637274

0.056008 0.048899 0.056406 0.047592 0.05918 0.048755 0.061457 0.050997 0.063727

0.28004 0.244496 0.282032 0.237959 0.295899 0.243773 0.307287 0.254987 0.318637

0.970805 0.847585 0.977711 0.824924 1.025784 0.84508 1.06526 0.883956 1.104608

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.370109 0.343822 0.371022 0.342397 0.379075 0.349428 0.387742 0.356806 0.395032

0.092527 0.085955 0.092755 0.085599 0.094769 0.087357 0.096936 0.089202 0.098758

0.074022 0.068764 0.074204 0.068479 0.075815 0.069886 0.077548 0.071361 0.079006

6.16848 5.730359 6.183692 5.706623 6.31792 5.823794 6.462374 5.946767 6.583871

0.690181 0.700918 0.681992 0.698587 0.676517 0.691579 0.672885 0.690832 0.666658

0.420842 0.427389 0.415849 0.425968 0.41251 0.421694 0.410295 0.421239 0.406499

0.067335 0.068382 0.066536 0.068155 0.066002 0.067471 0.065647 0.067398 0.06504

0.134669 0.136764 0.133072 0.13631 0.132003 0.134942 0.131295 0.134797 0.13008

0.040401 0.041029 0.039921 0.040893 0.039601 0.040483 0.039388 0.040439 0.039024

0.035014 0.035559 0.034599 0.035441 0.034321 0.035085 0.034137 0.035047 0.033821

0.047134 0.047868 0.046575 0.047708 0.046201 0.04723 0.045953 0.047179 0.045528

0.01212 0.012309 0.011976 0.012268 0.01188 0.012145 0.011817 0.012132 0.011707

0.033667 0.034191 0.033268 0.034077 0.033001 0.033736 0.032824 0.033699 0.03252

0.168337 0.170956 0.16634 0.170387 0.165004 0.168678 0.164118 0.168496 0.162599

0.168337 0.170956 0.16634 0.170387 0.165004 0.168678 0.164118 0.168496 0.162599

1.683369 1.709556 1.663395 1.703872 1.650042 1.686778 1.641182 1.684957 1.625994

0.124718 0.125515 0.12644 0.126181 0.126366 0.126365 0.126336 0.12605 0.125877

0.089085 0.089653 0.090315 0.090129 0.090261 0.090261 0.09024 0.090036 0.089912

0.017817 0.017931 0.018063 0.018026 0.018052 0.018052 0.018048 0.018007 0.017982

0.124718 0.125515 0.12644 0.126181 0.126366 0.126365 0.126336 0.12605 0.125877

0.00873 0.008786 0.008851 0.008833 0.008846 0.008846 0.008844 0.008823 0.008811

0.087303 0.08786 0.088508 0.088327 0.088456 0.088455 0.088435 0.088235 0.088114

0.019955 0.020082 0.02023 0.020189 0.020218 0.020218 0.020214 0.020168 0.02014

0.00873 0.008786 0.008851 0.008833 0.008846 0.008846 0.008844 0.008823 0.008811

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
0.044542 0.044827 0.045157 0.045065 0.045131 0.04513 0.04512 0.045018 0.044956

0.302888 0.304822 0.307069 0.30644 0.306888 0.306886 0.306817 0.306121 0.305701

0.187078 0.188272 0.18966 0.189272 0.189548 0.189547 0.189505 0.189075 0.188815

0.890846 0.896534 0.903145 0.901293 0.902611 0.902607 0.902402 0.900356 0.899121
Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

3.346888 3.476158 3.370185 3.561017 3.373252 3.608663 3.402647 3.593213 3.399189

0.380751 0.469063 0.384541 0.457683 0.397843 0.471684 0.410053 0.491522 0.41083

0.018065 0.020086 0.018259 0.020296 0.018322 0.020727 0.018656 0.020969 0.01871

1.751989 2.147527 1.783963 2.137845 1.786648 2.206845 1.846142 2.275994 1.865409

0.525597 0.644258 0.535189 0.641353 0.535994 0.662053 0.553843 0.682798 0.559623

0.05256 0.064426 0.053519 0.064135 0.053599 0.066205 0.055384 0.06828 0.055962

0.262798 0.322129 0.267594 0.320677 0.267997 0.331027 0.276921 0.341399 0.279811

0.911034 1.116714 0.927661 1.111679 0.929057 1.147559 0.959994 1.183517 0.970013

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.361294 0.40172 0.365188 0.405926 0.366445 0.41454 0.37311 0.419389 0.374204

0.090324 0.10043 0.091297 0.101482 0.091611 0.103635 0.093278 0.104847 0.093551

0.072259 0.080344 0.073038 0.081185 0.073289 0.082908 0.074622 0.083878 0.074841

6.021569 6.695328 6.086473 6.765434 6.10741 6.909001 6.218508 6.989813 6.236734

0.686029 0.654218 0.675696 0.64306 0.668313 0.635556 0.658573 0.633721 0.657348

0.41831 0.398913 0.41201 0.39211 0.407508 0.387534 0.401569 0.386415 0.400822

0.06693 0.063826 0.065922 0.062738 0.065201 0.062005 0.064251 0.061826 0.064131

0.133859 0.127652 0.131843 0.125475 0.130403 0.124011 0.128502 0.123653 0.128263

0.040158 0.038296 0.039553 0.037643 0.039121 0.037203 0.038551 0.037096 0.038479

0.034803 0.03319 0.034279 0.032624 0.033905 0.032243 0.033411 0.03215 0.033348

0.046851 0.044678 0.046145 0.043916 0.045641 0.043404 0.044976 0.043279 0.044892

0.012047 0.011489 0.011866 0.011293 0.011736 0.011161 0.011565 0.011129 0.011544

0.033465 0.031913 0.032961 0.031369 0.032601 0.031003 0.032126 0.030913 0.032066

0.167324 0.159565 0.164804 0.156844 0.163003 0.155014 0.160628 0.154566 0.160329

0.167324 0.159565 0.164804 0.156844 0.163003 0.155014 0.160628 0.154566 0.160329

1.673241 1.595653 1.648039 1.568439 1.630033 1.550135 1.606276 1.545662 1.603287

0.125997 0.125823 0.125351 0.125888 0.125036 0.125443 0.124502 0.12641 0.124187

0.089998 0.089873 0.089537 0.08992 0.089311 0.089602 0.08893 0.090293 0.088705

0.018 0.017975 0.017907 0.017984 0.017862 0.01792 0.017786 0.018059 0.017741

0.125997 0.125823 0.125351 0.125888 0.125036 0.125443 0.124502 0.12641 0.124187

0.00882 0.008808 0.008775 0.008812 0.008752 0.008781 0.008715 0.008849 0.008693

0.088198 0.088076 0.087746 0.088121 0.087525 0.08781 0.087151 0.088487 0.086931

0.02016 0.020132 0.020056 0.020142 0.020006 0.020071 0.01992 0.020226 0.01987

0.00882 0.008808 0.008775 0.008812 0.008752 0.008781 0.008715 0.008849 0.008693

2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
0.044999 0.044937 0.044768 0.04496 0.044656 0.044801 0.044465 0.045146 0.044353

0.305993 0.305569 0.304425 0.305727 0.303658 0.304648 0.302361 0.306996 0.301598

0.188996 0.188734 0.188027 0.188832 0.187553 0.188165 0.186753 0.189615 0.186281

0.899979 0.898733 0.895367 0.899198 0.893111 0.896024 0.889298 0.90293 0.887053
Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference

3.541662 3.380527 3.551211 3.417814 3.644773 3.50362 3.747947 3.614478 3.831086

0.508797 0.416633 0.534471 0.410055 0.54321 0.412145 0.552497 0.410271 0.558256

0.02107 0.01879 0.021369 0.018957 0.021818 0.01926 0.022283 0.019554 0.022592

2.340893 1.902367 2.396288 1.92254 2.430257 1.926509 2.458803 1.906699 2.463445

0.702268 0.57071 0.718886 0.576762 0.729077 0.577953 0.737641 0.57201 0.739033

0.070227 0.057071 0.071889 0.057676 0.072908 0.057795 0.073764 0.057201 0.073903

0.351134 0.285355 0.359443 0.288381 0.364538 0.288976 0.36882 0.286005 0.369517

1.217264 0.989231 1.24607 0.999721 1.263733 1.001785 1.278577 0.991483 1.280991

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.421408 0.375793 0.427383 0.379148 0.436367 0.385205 0.445665 0.391084 0.451832

0.105352 0.093948 0.106846 0.094787 0.109092 0.096301 0.111416 0.097771 0.112958

0.084282 0.075159 0.085477 0.07583 0.087273 0.077041 0.089133 0.078217 0.090366

7.023462 6.263216 7.123044 6.31913 7.272789 6.420082 7.427744 6.518074 7.530535

0.628994 0.657342 0.628538 0.65562 0.628472 0.657286 0.631078 0.655296 0.628671

0.383533 0.400818 0.383255 0.399768 0.383214 0.400784 0.384804 0.399571 0.383336

0.061365 0.064131 0.061321 0.063963 0.061314 0.064125 0.061569 0.063931 0.061334

0.122731 0.128262 0.122642 0.127926 0.122629 0.128251 0.123137 0.127863 0.122668

0.036819 0.038479 0.036792 0.038378 0.036789 0.038475 0.036941 0.038359 0.0368

0.03191 0.033348 0.031887 0.033261 0.031883 0.033345 0.032016 0.033244 0.031894

0.042956 0.044892 0.042925 0.044774 0.04292 0.044888 0.043098 0.044752 0.042934

0.011046 0.011544 0.011038 0.011513 0.011037 0.011543 0.011082 0.011508 0.01104

0.030683 0.032065 0.03066 0.031981 0.030657 0.032063 0.030784 0.031966 0.030667

0.153413 0.160327 0.153302 0.159907 0.153286 0.160314 0.153922 0.159828 0.153334

0.153413 0.160327 0.153302 0.159907 0.153286 0.160314 0.153922 0.159828 0.153334

1.534131 1.603274 1.533019 1.599073 1.532858 1.603136 1.539216 1.598283 1.533345

0.126118 0.123985 0.125065 0.12375 0.124696 0.123483 0.124246 0.123489 0.123986

0.090084 0.088561 0.089332 0.088393 0.089068 0.088202 0.088747 0.088206 0.088562

0.018017 0.017712 0.017866 0.017679 0.017814 0.01764 0.017749 0.017641 0.017712

0.126118 0.123985 0.125065 0.12375 0.124696 0.123483 0.124246 0.123489 0.123986

0.008828 0.008679 0.008755 0.008663 0.008729 0.008644 0.008697 0.008644 0.008679

0.088283 0.08679 0.087545 0.086625 0.087287 0.086438 0.086972 0.086442 0.08679

0.020179 0.019838 0.02001 0.0198 0.019951 0.019757 0.019879 0.019758 0.019838

0.008828 0.008679 0.008755 0.008663 0.008729 0.008644 0.008697 0.008644 0.008679

2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
0.045042 0.044281 0.044666 0.044196 0.044534 0.044101 0.044373 0.044103 0.044281

0.306287 0.301108 0.303729 0.300536 0.302832 0.299887 0.30174 0.299901 0.301109

0.189177 0.185978 0.187597 0.185625 0.187043 0.185225 0.186369 0.185233 0.185979

0.900843 0.885611 0.89332 0.88393 0.890683 0.882022 0.887469 0.882063 0.885615
Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference

3.704003 3.940742 3.802795 4.012207 3.828772 4.021209 3.862249 1.80%

0.413448 0.577288 0.421487 0.582499 0.441058 0.611661 0.445859 -1.70%

0.019848 0.023227 0.020301 0.023359 0.020567 0.023636 0.020622 3.50%

1.903186 2.527412 1.933607 2.490845 1.968918 2.536623 1.947201 -1.60%

0.570956 0.758224 0.580082 0.747254 0.590676 0.760987 0.58416 -1.30%

0.057096 0.075822 0.058008 0.074725 0.059068 0.076099 0.058416 -3.00%

0.285478 0.379112 0.290041 0.373627 0.295338 0.380493 0.29208 -1.80%

0.989657 1.314254 1.005476 1.295239 1.023837 1.319044 1.012544 -1.70%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -

0.396965 0.464535 0.406015 0.467179 0.411346 0.472714 0.412438 -1.40%

0.099241 0.116134 0.101504 0.116795 0.102837 0.118178 0.103109 -0.40%

0.079393 0.092907 0.081203 0.093436 0.082269 0.094543 0.082488 -3.40%

6.616086 7.742245 6.76691 7.786319 6.855768 7.878564 6.873966 -0.30%

0.649611 0.624818 0.645782 0.619122 0.641565 0.614522 0.636131 1.00%

0.396105 0.380986 0.39377 0.377514 0.391198 0.374709 0.387885 -0.80%

0.063377 0.060958 0.063003 0.060402 0.062592 0.059953 0.062062 -1.00%

0.126753 0.121916 0.126006 0.120804 0.125183 0.119907 0.124123 -0.70%

0.038026 0.036575 0.037802 0.036241 0.037555 0.035972 0.037237 -1.40%

0.032956 0.031698 0.032762 0.031409 0.032548 0.031176 0.032272 -1.30%

0.044364 0.04267 0.044102 0.042282 0.043814 0.041967 0.043443 0.30%

0.011408 0.010972 0.011341 0.010872 0.011267 0.010792 0.011171 1.50%

0.031688 0.030479 0.031502 0.030201 0.031296 0.029977 0.031031 2.30%

0.158442 0.152395 0.157508 0.151005 0.156479 0.149883 0.155154 -0.20%

0.158442 0.152395 0.157508 0.151005 0.156479 0.149883 0.155154 -2.10%

1.584418 1.523945 1.575079 1.510054 1.564793 1.498835 1.55154 -0.20%

0.123052 0.123581 0.123449 0.124621 0.124429 0.123347 0.12399 3.10%

0.087894 0.088272 0.088178 0.089015 0.088878 0.088105 0.088564 1.90%

0.017579 0.017654 0.017636 0.017803 0.017776 0.017621 0.017713 2.30%

0.123052 0.123581 0.123449 0.124621 0.124429 0.123347 0.12399 2.30%

0.008614 0.008651 0.008641 0.008724 0.00871 0.008634 0.008679 -3.60%

0.086136 0.086506 0.086414 0.087235 0.0871 0.086343 0.086793 5.30%

0.019688 0.019773 0.019752 0.019939 0.019909 0.019735 0.019838 0.40%

0.008614 0.008651 0.008641 0.008724 0.00871 0.008634 0.008679 3.50%

2037 2038 2039 2040 Growth Rate (2012-2040)
0.043947 0.044136 0.044089 0.044508 0.044439 0.044052 0.044282 1.00%

0.29884 0.300124 0.299805 0.302652 0.302184 0.299556 0.301118 1.70%

0.184577 0.185371 0.185174 0.186932 0.186643 0.18502 0.185985 3.50%

0.87894 0.882718 0.881779 0.890154 0.888776 0.881048 0.885642 2.30%
Low VMT

1.70%

-2.80%

3.00%

-2.60%

-2.20%

-3.90%

-2.70%

-2.60%

- -

-1.80%

-0.90%

-3.90%

-0.80%

1.10%

-0.60%

-0.90%

-0.50%

-1.30%

-1.20%

0.40%

1.60%

2.40%

-0.10%

-2.00%

-0.10%

3.20%

1.90%

2.30%

2.30%

-3.60%

5.30%

0.40%

3.50%

rowth Rate (2012-2040)
1.10%

1.70%

3.50%

2.30%
Reference Low VMT

Production 1/

(million barrels per day)

 Lower 48 Total 5.086 5.964 7.212 7.212

 Lower 48 Onshore 3.661 4.599 5.842 5.842

 Northeast 0.085 0.095 0.1 0.1

 Gulf Coast 0.714 0.888 1.603 1.603

 Midcontinent 0.423 0.502 0.522 0.522

 Southwest 1.11 1.489 1.688 1.688

 Rocky Mountain 0.825 1.122 1.425 1.425

 West Coast 0.504 0.503 0.504 0.504

 Lower 48 Offshore 1.425 1.365 1.37 1.37

 Gulf 1.337 1.283 1.29 1.29

 Shallow 0.271047 0.258947 0.218832 0.218832

 Deep 1.065953 1.024053 1.071168 1.071168

 Pacific 0.088 0.082 0.08 0.08

 Atlantic 0 0 0 0

Wellhead Prices (2012 dollars per barrel)

 Lower 48 Average 98.122818 94.937637 97.540466 97.540466

 Lower 48 Onshore

 Northeast 90.849243 89.440002 92.314415 92.314415

 Gulf Coast 98.574387 96.32 99.408699 99.408699

 Midcontinent 91.887405 89.919998 92.807068 92.807068

 Southwest 93.444641 91.82 94.767853 94.767853

 Rocky Mountain 88.742393 83.660004 86.343384 86.343384

 West Coast 104.324982 104.099998 107.439041 107.439041

 Lower 48 Offshore

 Gulf 107.510712 105.919998 109.320992 109.320992

 Pacific 100.253761 99.940002 103.152908 103.152908

 Atlantic 0 0 0 0

 1/ Includes lease condensate.

 - - = Not applicable.

 Note: Oil and Gas Supply Model regions are defined in Appendix F of the Annual Energy Outlook. Totals may not equal sum 

due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 and 2012 may differ from official EIA data reports due to

internal conversion factors within the AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System.

Lower 48 Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region

Region 2011 2012

2013
Annual 2012, DOE/EIA-0340(2012)/1 (Washington, DC, September 2013); EIA, Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380(

and EIA, Office of Energy Analysis. Projections: EIA, AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System.

 Sources: 2011 and 2012: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Supply
Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

8.055 8.055 8.574966 8.576372 9.079624 9.090927 9.086866 9.093855

6.565001 6.565001 6.94377 6.945175 7.072404 7.083706 7.116968 7.123956

0.102 0.102 0.052458 0.052458 0.049228 0.049267 0.045895 0.045916

2.104 2.104 2.423465 2.42237 2.500732 2.500784 2.537948 2.535772

0.561 0.561 0.394037 0.394286 0.388419 0.3886 0.385159 0.385595

1.755 1.755 1.826651 1.826617 1.857178 1.860427 1.877904 1.876407

1.539 1.539 1.705978 1.708264 1.750603 1.75834 1.754883 1.762207

0.504 0.504 0.541181 0.541181 0.526245 0.526288 0.515179 0.518059

1.49 1.49 1.631196 1.631196 2.007221 2.007221 1.969899 1.969899

1.41 1.41 1.571857 1.571857 1.950233 1.950233 1.915063 1.915063

0.156655 0.156655 0.144269 0.144269 0.136934 0.136934 0.134867 0.134867

1.253345 1.253345 1.427588 1.427588 1.813299 1.813299 1.780196 1.780196

0.08 0.08 0.059339 0.059339 0.056988 0.056988 0.054836 0.054836

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

98.501625 98.500381 93.152596 93.140823 89.757164 89.592384 88.226219 87.980324

94.736168 94.65995 89.464996 89.26046 85.853127 85.636559 84.250053 83.963203

101.837212 101.790276 96.386139 96.368286 92.878548 92.73555 91.445045 91.239624

95.529861 95.506828 90.162102 90.01432 86.44175 86.234138 84.834267 84.527702

98.781624 98.770142 92.778984 92.772034 89.140793 89.012199 87.534904 87.269409

91.072121 91.33493 86.387299 86.322342 82.770287 82.589615 81.188881 80.805679

100.680809 100.323471 94.27951 94.583717 91.407738 91.139191 89.635574 89.701881

101.837212 101.790276 96.386139 96.368286 92.878548 92.73555 91.445045 91.239624

100.680809 100.323471 94.27951 94.583717 91.407738 91.139191 89.635574 89.701881

102.564529 102.414833 96.192085 96.067665 92.647926 92.451706 90.988022 90.784531

y Outlook. Totals may not equal sum of components

eports due to

2014 2015 2016 2017
 Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380(2013/08) (Washington, DC, August 2013);
Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

9.103531 9.111196 9.154247 9.150912 9.115398 9.111518 9.003667 8.997718

7.141939 7.149604 7.178643 7.175308 7.212075 7.208195 7.211297 7.205574

0.042979 0.042997 0.040091 0.040107 0.037771 0.037786 0.036095 0.036108

2.559391 2.559129 2.569439 2.564102 2.510413 2.506562 2.447863 2.445605

0.381732 0.382021 0.38465 0.384903 0.38031 0.379966 0.388811 0.387701

1.90606 1.901918 1.946248 1.938918 1.982252 1.976987 2.013669 2.00936

1.740959 1.747992 1.734486 1.737441 1.795065 1.797614 1.816337 1.818016

0.510817 0.515547 0.50373 0.509837 0.506264 0.509279 0.508521 0.508784

1.961592 1.961592 1.975604 1.975604 1.903324 1.903324 1.79237 1.792144

1.908733 1.908733 1.924566 1.924566 1.853971 1.853971 1.743952 1.743725

0.130058 0.130058 0.129003 0.129003 0.131409 0.131409 0.133198 0.132971

1.778675 1.778675 1.795563 1.795563 1.722562 1.722562 1.610754 1.610754

0.052859 0.052859 0.051037 0.051037 0.049353 0.049353 0.048419 0.048419

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

88.874161 88.572861 90.820602 90.309341 92.93071 92.320412 95.297203 94.52594

84.926079 84.598694 86.867317 86.336594 89.111496 88.413452 91.586906 90.736916

92.159531 91.883476 94.175751 93.620903 96.451653 95.817177 98.910957 98.177818

85.464005 85.044754 87.347557 86.761909 89.530052 88.816864 92.02327 91.159508

87.937363 87.764404 89.684555 89.271034 91.732101 91.240883 94.161469 93.379318

81.829414 81.270233 83.695976 83.122185 85.80587 85.133522 88.207306 87.358513

90.368286 90.384705 92.596069 92.378731 95.1558 94.619675 97.852882 97.177727

92.159531 91.883476 94.175751 93.620903 96.451653 95.817177 98.910957 98.177818

90.368286 90.384705 92.596069 92.378731 95.1558 94.619675 97.852882 97.177727

91.584625 91.297523 93.449844 92.925529 95.612595 94.965401 97.999825 97.184647

2018 2019 2020 2021

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

8.900111 8.888121 8.824425 8.806467 8.727163 8.70501 8.677514 8.641152

7.188561 7.177026 7.15023 7.132639 7.107878 7.086033 7.040334 7.006551

0.034288 0.0343 0.032556 0.032484 0.032597 0.032571 0.030844 0.030553

2.381176 2.377227 2.316759 2.311074 2.263959 2.255705 2.224121 2.214551

0.406339 0.405247 0.42771 0.424622 0.44528 0.443995 0.46188 0.459315

2.015574 2.009626 2.01127 2.008205 2.004265 2.002172 1.96632 1.961839

1.837814 1.839067 1.843294 1.841238 1.845085 1.839328 1.841 1.829186

0.513369 0.511558 0.518641 0.515016 0.516692 0.512262 0.51617 0.511106

1.71155 1.711094 1.674195 1.673828 1.619285 1.618978 1.63718 1.634602

1.664602 1.664146 1.62862 1.628253 1.574737 1.57443 1.59384 1.591262

0.140141 0.139685 0.142083 0.141716 0.141077 0.14077 0.144515 0.141937

1.524461 1.524461 1.486537 1.486537 1.43366 1.43366 1.449324 1.449325

0.046947 0.046947 0.045575 0.045575 0.044548 0.044548 0.04334 0.04334

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

97.80838 96.767975 100.253662 99.119316 102.645958 101.396126 104.900368 103.48719

94.112473 93.03717 96.664772 95.470329 99.083099 97.986267 101.577057 100.159248

101.565804 100.523697 104.050888 102.886078 106.512489 105.23127 108.727554 107.296463

94.523308 93.517372 97.100655 95.997887 99.591713 98.295403 101.844383 100.450951

96.73336 95.716934 99.262184 98.118958 101.710388 100.427132 103.954224 102.533577

90.621925 89.572578 93.108444 92.064163 95.525131 94.323654 97.814186 96.418823

100.724861 99.654587 103.176003 101.98175 105.58136 104.534218 108.131889 106.732063

101.565804 100.523697 104.050888 102.886078 106.512489 105.23127 108.727554 107.296463

100.724861 99.654587 103.176003 101.98175 105.58136 104.534218 108.131889 106.732063

100.388268 99.415291 102.775673 101.711212 105.148201 103.948448 107.336594 105.94648

2022 2023 2024 2025

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

8.525279 8.459798 8.380886 8.286912 8.244573 8.155018 8.125161 8.052514

6.896193 6.830943 6.776772 6.685573 6.653513 6.574583 6.523207 6.457235

0.028549 0.028421 0.024324 0.024307 0.023502 0.023498 0.023068 0.022739

2.191852 2.159509 2.174088 2.128731 2.14563 2.109269 2.112138 2.082565

0.432717 0.430437 0.411832 0.408391 0.394679 0.394758 0.379515 0.379871

1.905734 1.898953 1.853967 1.840346 1.804189 1.79084 1.760746 1.748968

1.821488 1.803722 1.80013 1.779128 1.77217 1.751477 1.734296 1.718921

0.515852 0.509901 0.512432 0.50467 0.513343 0.504741 0.513445 0.504171

1.629087 1.628854 1.604115 1.601339 1.59106 1.580435 1.601955 1.595279

1.586689 1.586457 1.54154 1.538764 1.53046 1.519835 1.545068 1.538392

0.143759 0.143526 0.146613 0.143837 0.146829 0.143356 0.145839 0.143954

1.442931 1.442931 1.394927 1.394927 1.383631 1.376479 1.399229 1.394439

0.042397 0.042397 0.041327 0.041327 0.043514 0.043514 0.042577 0.042577

0 0 0.021248 0.021248 0.017085 0.017085 0.01431 0.01431

106.887436 105.318726 109.2752 107.621498 110.995583 109.34317 113.00386 111.14843

103.538445 101.828842 105.798943 103.871307 107.284348 105.600998 109.186829 107.428337

110.699409 109.084641 113.14904 111.381889 114.800568 113.078033 116.772446 114.86409

103.839073 102.34256 106.255486 104.687073 108.167122 106.474083 110.191055 108.290962

105.880997 104.341301 108.303497 106.628426 110.063263 108.320854 112.046005 110.07177

99.772545 98.226624 101.920731 100.451385 103.622887 102.150566 105.561508 103.843872

110.270653 108.798111 112.696999 111.292068 114.414192 113.05294 116.451683 114.997017

110.699409 109.084641 113.14904 111.381889 114.800568 113.078033 116.772446 114.86409

110.270653 108.798111 112.696999 111.292068 114.414192 113.05294 116.451683 114.997017

109.173943 107.541443 113.038216 111.313332 114.520943 112.906799 116.471664 114.68

2026 2027 2028 2029

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

8.064343 7.990275 7.932957 7.846326 7.79967 7.734696 7.704468 7.607807

6.383477 6.32123 6.258595 6.19423 6.128838 6.071266 6.013788 5.956258

0.022286 0.022137 0.02163 0.021517 0.021191 0.021095 0.020659 0.02064

2.07325 2.048718 2.034595 2.012294 1.988744 1.973385 1.941352 1.933662

0.36359 0.363637 0.347439 0.347488 0.334477 0.336195 0.325831 0.327726

1.722773 1.710377 1.694137 1.679182 1.667218 1.650738 1.645648 1.625628

1.689474 1.674688 1.649228 1.633887 1.607493 1.592727 1.569666 1.555564

0.512102 0.501673 0.511565 0.499861 0.509714 0.497125 0.510631 0.493038

1.680866 1.669045 1.674362 1.652097 1.670832 1.66343 1.69068 1.651549

1.584825 1.573003 1.574176 1.55191 1.542279 1.534877 1.538468 1.502607

0.143921 0.144144 0.139111 0.139463 0.139531 0.139704 0.140406 0.138884

1.440904 1.428859 1.435065 1.412447 1.402748 1.395173 1.398062 1.363723

0.070796 0.070796 0.073127 0.073127 0.10258 0.10258 0.130363 0.127093

0.025246 0.025246 0.027059 0.027059 0.025973 0.025973 0.021849 0.021849

114.693359 112.70903 116.703568 114.751419 118.922768 116.6707 121.23806 118.924522

110.88205 108.885712 112.679344 110.752228 114.77874 112.473167 117.158493 114.399307

118.380623 116.359055 120.356071 118.399345 122.539429 120.152382 124.844772 122.094345

111.839012 109.800529 114.010544 111.816193 116.800583 113.995216 119.825394 117.379463

113.663773 111.526443 115.661476 113.475166 117.894066 115.691895 120.161224 118.823647

107.201324 105.346962 109.153198 107.347717 111.26149 109.165741 113.366493 111.049088

118.079697 116.517883 120.055336 118.66259 122.131439 120.423065 124.426384 122.239182

118.380623 116.359055 120.356071 118.399345 122.539429 120.152382 124.844772 122.094345

118.079697 116.517883 120.055336 118.66259 122.131439 120.423065 124.426384 122.239182

118.339943 116.444382 120.382896 118.559105 122.504211 120.217628 124.806946 121.975662

2030 2031 2032 2033

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

7.596154 7.495989 7.494101 7.40724 7.386033 7.317581 7.339821 7.258144

5.903867 5.844292 5.791162 5.735075 5.665342 5.603096 5.555617 5.480744

0.019888 0.020107 0.0191 0.019218 0.021293 0.018711 0.024065 0.017835

1.895096 1.892997 1.843749 1.847714 1.788208 1.794602 1.734106 1.740012

0.321337 0.320259 0.318279 0.313601 0.314977 0.309492 0.313427 0.307027

1.622184 1.598898 1.60502 1.580818 1.588877 1.561155 1.576182 1.540811

1.531489 1.517587 1.490282 1.47787 1.439325 1.427101 1.39853 1.384477

0.513874 0.494445 0.514732 0.495854 0.512662 0.492036 0.509307 0.490581

1.692287 1.651697 1.702939 1.672165 1.72069 1.714484 1.784204 1.777399

1.535595 1.495005 1.54986 1.518426 1.55264 1.562234 1.595032 1.596067

0.136076 0.136518 0.1337 0.134232 0.132069 0.133852 0.12847 0.130135

1.399519 1.358487 1.416159 1.384194 1.420571 1.428383 1.466562 1.465932

0.137733 0.137733 0.136281 0.136941 0.136691 0.137133 0.137591 0.137908

0.018959 0.018959 0.016798 0.016798 0.03136 0.015117 0.051582 0.043425

123.499855 120.959755 125.590073 122.97998 127.469971 124.619972 129.331207 126.14431

119.328743 116.349014 121.450577 118.43602 123.284927 119.973228 124.91304 121.242401

127.00766 124.044106 129.070984 126.041832 130.829636 127.555176 132.531296 128.88562

122.216454 119.576103 124.450798 121.632904 126.334633 123.305168 128.356567 125.281448

122.885612 121.123444 124.925697 123.086098 126.983871 124.862526 128.932526 126.502129

115.528435 112.948112 117.596268 114.875755 119.427788 116.49778 121.403931 118.154922

125.956573 124.013611 127.975883 126.086823 129.696075 127.485992 131.317551 128.670059

127.00766 124.044106 129.070984 126.041832 130.829636 127.555176 132.531296 128.88562

125.956573 124.013611 127.975883 126.086823 129.696075 127.485992 131.317551 128.670059

126.926399 123.705421 128.860779 125.734047 131.445129 127.935402 132.980713 129.129837

2034 2035 2036 2037

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

7.237151 7.171724 7.241581 7.126685 7.220181 7.138912 0.70% 0.60%

5.444775 5.371638 5.340479 5.27342 5.231455 5.16424 0.50% 0.40%

0.026145 0.019461 0.027762 0.022774 0.029056 0.026003 -4.10% -4.50%

1.68166 1.686361 1.631678 1.637075 1.572722 1.579925 2.10% 2.10%

0.308989 0.305539 0.303458 0.301676 0.297892 0.297588 -1.80% -1.90%

1.564958 1.5252 1.552804 1.509948 1.539118 1.493451 0.10% 0.00%

1.357903 1.343621 1.319116 1.307305 1.286249 1.273531 0.50% 0.50%

0.505121 0.491455 0.505661 0.494642 0.506418 0.493741 0.00% -0.10%

1.792376 1.800086 1.901103 1.853265 1.988725 1.974672 1.40% 1.30%

1.59863 1.618393 1.622759 1.617538 1.698679 1.689808 1.00% 1.00%

0.125397 0.127234 0.122333 0.124398 0.119727 0.121538 -2.70% -2.70%

1.473233 1.491159 1.500426 1.49314 1.578953 1.56827 1.60% 1.50%

0.127465 0.127703 0.17087 0.162659 0.175838 0.177675 2.80% 2.80%

0.066281 0.05399 0.107474 0.073068 0.114207 0.107188 - - - -

131.588776 128.234848 134.449875 131.264786 137.627213 134.28717 1.30% 1.20%

127.046906 123.234291 129.828384 126.114662 132.912704 129.127411 1.40% 1.30%

134.660233 130.951019 137.352585 133.989777 140.403458 136.933014 1.40% 1.30%

130.370377 127.288963 134.04982 130.230026 137.415436 133.203033 1.50% 1.40%

131.320297 128.569504 134.774384 131.446304 137.879364 134.319214 1.50% 1.40%

123.758728 120.139603 126.632462 123.102776 129.98877 126.161644 1.60% 1.50%

133.54245 130.842804 134.826904 133.910721 137.895203 136.951614 1.00% 1.00%

134.660233 130.951019 137.352585 133.989777 140.403458 136.933014 1.00% 0.90%

133.54245 130.842804 134.826904 133.910721 137.895203 136.951614 1.20% 1.10%

135.159256 131.232132 137.762634 134.245483 140.884201 137.244553 - - - -

2038 2039 2040 Growth Rate (2012-2040)

Reference Low VMT

Production

 Crude Oil and Lease Condensate 12.198804 13.865599 16.458458 16.45845

 Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.112325 3.211883 3.33177 3.331771

 Dry Natural Gas 23.044373 24.592386 24.717531 24.717491

 Coal 1/ 22.2213 20.601097 20.80596 20.806488

 Nuclear / Uranium 2/ 8.259212 8.050291 7.93316 7.93316

 Hydropower 3.106776 2.674079 2.58764 2.58764

 Biomass 3/ 3.903867 3.777297 3.951985 3.951981

 Other Renewable Energy 4/ 1.701541 1.966322 2.259844 2.259843

 Other 5/ 0.798717 0.410971 0.723955 0.723955

 Total 78.346909 79.149933 82.770302 82.770775

Imports

 Crude Oil 19.521608 18.573917 16.378084 16.38192

 Petroleum and Other Liquids 6/ 5.207584 4.257369 3.95015 3.95069

 Natural Gas 7/ 3.555409 3.212021 3.13214 3.13203

 Other 8/ 0.427262 0.355926 0.385821 0.385821

 Total 28.711863 26.399233 23.846193 23.850462

Exports

 Petroleum and Other Liquids 9/ 5.947325 6.285651 6.14894 6.148943

 Natural Gas 10/ 1.520622 1.633518 1.73094 1.73094

 Coal 2.75 3.22 2.845825 2.845826

 Total 10.217947 11.139168 10.725704 10.725708

Discrepancy 11/ -0.270283 -0.612883 -0.603434 -0.598688

Consumption

 Petroleum and Other Liquids 12/ 36.561874 35.871719 35.96645 35.966331

 Natural Gas 24.908455 26.200022 26.217821 26.21767

 Coal 13/ 19.622061 17.343672 18.463053 18.463324

 Nuclear / Uranium 2/ 8.259212 8.050291 7.93316 7.93316

 Hydropower 3.106776 2.674079 2.58764 2.58764

 Biomass 14/ 2.599807 2.52963 2.678998 2.678994

 Other Renewable Energy 4/ 1.701541 1.966322 2.259844 2.259843

 Other 15/ 0.351376 0.38714 0.38726 0.38726

 Total 97.111107 95.022881 96.494225 96.494217

Prices (2012 dollars per unit)

 Brent Spot Price (dollars per barrel) 113.240959 111.650002 106.52269 106.52269

Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary

(quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 2011 2012

2013
 West Texas Intermediate Spot Price (dollars

 p 96.547935 94.124001 97.139511 97.139511

 Natural Gas at Henry Hub (dollars per mmB

tu) 4.071219 2.75 3.602241 3.602417

 Coal, Minemouth (dollars per ton) 16/ 41.740173 39.939995 40.251865 40.256512

 Coal, Minemouth (dollars per million Btu) 1

6/ 2.07225 1.9829 1.987327 1.987444

 Coal, Delivered (dollars per million Btu) 17/ 2.608907 2.595455 2.57566 2.575754

 Electricity (cents per kilowatthour) 10.073116 9.843192 9.790025 9.790432

Prices (nominal dollars per unit)

 Brent Spot Price (dollars per barrel) 111.26001 111.650002 108.110001 108.110001

 West Texas Intermediate Spot Price (dollars

 p 94.859001 94.124001 98.586998 98.586998

 Natural Gas at Henry Hub (dollars per mmB

tu) 4 2.75 3.655918 3.656097

 Coal, Minemouth (dollars per ton) 16/ 41.010002 39.939995 40.851665 40.856377

 Coal, Minemouth (dollars per million Btu) 1

6/ 2.036 1.9829 2.01694 2.017059

 Coal, Delivered (dollars per million Btu) 17/ 2.563269 2.595455 2.614041 2.614136

 Electricity (cents per kilowatthour) 9.896905 9.843192 9.935907 9.93632

 13/ Excludes coal converted to coal-based synthetic liquids and natural gas.

 14/ Includes grid-connected electricity from wood and wood waste, non-electric energy from wood, and biofuels heat and c

production of liquid fuels, but excludes the energy content of the liquid fuels.

 15/ Includes non-biogenic municipal waste, liquid hydrogen, and net electricity imports.

 9/ Includes crude oil, petroleum products, ethanol, and biodiesel.

 10/ Includes re-exported liquefied natural gas.

 11/ Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses, gains, and net storage withdrawals.

 12/ Estimated consumption. Includes petroleum-derived fuels and non-petroleum-derived fuels, such as ethanol and biodie

synthetic liquids. Petroleum coke, which is a solid, is included. Also included are natural gas plant liquids and crude oil consu

Refer to Table 17 for detailed renewable liquid fuels consumption.

non-electric energy from renewable sources, such as active and passive solar systems. Excludes electricity imports using rene

and nonmarketed renewable energy. See Table 17 for selected nonmarketed residential and commercial renewable energy d

 5/ Includes non-biogenic municipal waste, liquid hydrogen, methanol, and some domestic inputs to refineries.

 6/ Includes imports of finished petroleum products, unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, blending components, and renewable 

 7/ Includes imports of liquefied natural gas that are later re-exported.

 8/ Includes coal, coal coke (net), and electricity (net). Excludes imports of fuel used in nuclear power plants.

 1/ Includes waste coal.

 2/ These values represent the energy obtained from uranium when it is used in light water reactors. The total energy conte

is much larger, but alternative processes are required to take advantage of it.

 3/ Includes grid-connected electricity from wood and wood waste; biomass, such as corn, used for liquid fuels production; a

energy demand from wood. Refer to Table 17 for details.

 4/ Includes grid-connected electricity from landfill gas; biogenic municipal waste; wind; photovoltaic and solar thermal sour
Projections: EIA, AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System.

2012 petroleum supply values and 2011 crude oil and lease condensate production: EIA,

Petroleum Supply Annual 2012, DOE/EIA-0340(2012)/1 (Washington, DC, September 2013).

Other 2011 petroleum supply values: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2011, DOE/EIA-0340(2011)/1 (Washington, DC, August 2

2011 and 2012 crude oil spot prices and natural gas spot prices at Henry Hub: Thomson Reuters.

Other 2011 and 2012 coal values: EIA, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2012, DOE/EIA-0121(2012/4Q) (Washingto

Other 2011 and 2012 values: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/09) (Washington, DC, September 2013).

 Sources: 2011 natural gas supply values: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Annual

2011, DOE/EIA-0131(2011) (Washington, DC, January 2013).

2012 natural gas supply values: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly,

DOE/EIA-0130(2013/06) (Washington, DC, June 2013).

2011 and 2012 coal minemouth and delivered coal prices: EIA,

Annual Coal Report 2012, DOE/EIA-0584(2012) (Washington, DC, December 2013).

 17/ Prices weighted by consumption; weighted average excludes export free-alongside-ship (f.a.s.) prices.

 Btu = British thermal unit.

 MmBtu = Million Btu.

 - - = Not applicable.

 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 and 2012

are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports.

 16/ Includes reported prices for both open market and captive mines. Prices weighted by production, which differs from av

published in EIA data reports where it is weighted by reported sales.
Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

18.171396 18.171402 19.260693 19.263748 20.337309 20.361998 20.367065 20.382988

3.355431 3.355431 3.42044 3.420395 3.522686 3.522731 3.562144 3.562498

24.813 24.812933 25.171423 25.169806 26.246136 26.260977 26.959246 26.934622

21.208128 21.207233 21.33547 21.340221 20.553171 20.529959 21.076187 21.099054

7.942981 7.94298 8.096229 8.096229 8.207116 8.207116 8.341359 8.341359

2.650622 2.650622 2.708722 2.708718 2.758986 2.758984 2.812461 2.80899

3.999223 3.998977 4.165426 4.158887 4.272749 4.272848 4.358019 4.372913

2.363217 2.364872 2.677506 2.678316 2.896839 2.884611 2.9291 2.93252

0.578064 0.578064 0.23144 0.23144 0.236749 0.236749 0.236542 0.236542

85.082062 85.082504 87.067345 87.067757 89.031738 89.035973 90.642128 90.671486

14.515654 14.515573 13.928226 13.827758 13.08244 12.929486 13.189783 12.944901

3.798181 3.799482 4.123303 4.125259 4.186587 4.180451 4.195612 4.191322

3.211857 3.211848 3.185718 3.186826 3.151988 3.152945 2.906159 2.899199

0.362466 0.362461 0.258845 0.25885 0.214698 0.214703 0.169664 0.169688

21.888159 21.889362 21.496092 21.398693 20.635714 20.477585 20.461218 20.205111

6.161191 6.160996 6.325125 6.312848 6.372116 6.355367 6.369073 6.348775

1.804597 1.804597 2.041902 2.043141 2.340453 2.340942 2.8305 2.826525

2.713122 2.713122 2.787627 2.787628 2.903229 2.903229 2.977612 2.977612

10.678908 10.678714 11.154655 11.143617 11.615798 11.599539 12.177185 12.152912

-0.352548 -0.310958 -0.320436 -0.3205 -0.421338 -0.415983 -0.414614 -0.405588

36.049171 36.009727 36.296562 36.207935 36.648026 36.52692 36.848141 36.626759

25.757126 25.757053 26.066393 26.06459 26.912319 26.927595 26.88526 26.856133

18.854382 18.852741 18.615061 18.619932 17.669445 17.64518 18.075373 18.098095

7.942981 7.94298 8.096229 8.096229 8.207116 8.207116 8.341359 8.341359

2.650622 2.650622 2.708722 2.708718 2.758986 2.758984 2.812461 2.80899

2.668582 2.668336 2.91476 2.913626 3.023198 3.022538 3.091439 3.10778

2.363217 2.364872 2.677506 2.678316 2.896839 2.884611 2.9291 2.93252

0.357792 0.357792 0.353992 0.353991 0.357065 0.357063 0.357641 0.357637

96.64386 96.604111 97.729218 97.643333 98.472992 98.330002 99.340775 99.129272

98.896271 98.896095 97.145538 97.000839 93.43969 93.228928 91.836884 91.525093

2014 2015 2016 2017
93.097969 93.097801 89.445541 89.312309 87.769684 87.571709 88.836884 88.535278

3.736404 3.736313 3.743775 3.741722 4.139597 4.148938 4.402371 4.395154

39.903275 39.900066 40.543591 40.535904 42.851177 42.895672 44.327667 44.377518

1.98007 1.979976 2.030353 2.030023 2.14289 2.144948 2.21316 2.215352

2.534882 2.534932 2.623843 2.624103 2.666846 2.668683 2.726632 2.729301

9.803955 9.80359 9.914938 9.916444 9.929106 9.931971 9.992896 9.990339

102.199997 102.199997 101.953949 101.804855 99.573502 99.35038 99.29673 98.952087

96.208 96.208 93.872826 93.735558 93.531296 93.321709 96.053047 95.719658

3.861222 3.861135 3.92908 3.927032 4.41134 4.421359 4.759973 4.751808

41.236286 41.233044 42.550377 42.543468 45.664131 45.712223 47.928375 47.978622

2.046216 2.046123 2.13085 2.13056 2.283559 2.285786 2.392933 2.395121

2.619563 2.619619 2.753716 2.754063 2.841911 2.843909 2.948114 2.950776

10.131466 10.131107 10.405698 10.40756 10.580898 10.584107 10.804613 10.801025

 from wood, and biofuels heat and coproducts used in the

ved fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, and coal-based

gas plant liquids and crude oil consumed as a fuel.

cludes electricity imports using renewable sources

and commercial renewable energy data.

tic inputs to refineries.

nding components, and renewable fuels such as ethanol.

uclear power plants.

ter reactors. The total energy content of uranium

n, used for liquid fuels production; and non-electric

photovoltaic and solar thermal sources; and
(2011)/1 (Washington, DC, August 2012).

DOE/EIA-0121(2012/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2013).

hington, DC, September 2013).

Natural Gas Annual

ship (f.a.s.) prices.

r 2011 and 2012

by production, which differs from average minemouth prices
Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

20.406981 20.424606 20.474669 20.468851 20.35689 20.349417 20.068954 20.056532

3.571301 3.569559 3.57011 3.569499 3.537801 3.537482 3.486942 3.486351

27.800652 27.792898 28.811394 28.80102 29.729483 29.707548 30.354633 30.342333

21.519417 21.514423 21.665773 21.661102 21.695608 21.711325 21.824537 21.808289

8.301382 8.301382 8.281041 8.281041 8.154711 8.154711 8.154711 8.154711

2.807105 2.803626 2.807286 2.803803 2.80738 2.803898 2.820622 2.816786

4.456756 4.47044 4.549244 4.554002 4.660515 4.664647 4.781521 4.795012

2.963052 2.962952 2.98826 2.984991 3.009697 2.993133 3.017597 3.007562

0.236668 0.236668 0.236875 0.236875 0.236875 0.236875 0.236875 0.236875

92.063316 92.076553 93.384651 93.361191 94.188965 94.159035 94.746391 94.704453

13.187159 12.832339 13.083117 12.629289 13.149192 12.56718 13.370234 12.671274

4.2054 4.201718 4.212552 4.211592 4.211941 4.232745 4.218445 4.230007

2.746573 2.743321 2.560081 2.556782 2.393827 2.38946 2.309532 2.308139

0.152623 0.152574 0.157916 0.154989 0.165169 0.151414 0.161332 0.152948

20.291754 19.929953 20.013666 19.552652 19.92013 19.340799 20.059544 19.362368

6.355498 6.331727 6.332831 6.299438 6.296359 6.260279 6.262405 6.206668

3.368448 3.366886 3.935825 3.93447 4.299899 4.299271 4.592299 4.592142

3.053907 3.053907 3.073065 3.072094 3.131833 3.131832 3.152359 3.151529

12.777853 12.75252 13.341721 13.306003 13.72809 13.691382 14.007065 13.950338

-0.397362 -0.374897 -0.371367 -0.346711 -0.349503 -0.324422 -0.326633 -0.300671

36.921593 36.58004 36.908928 36.453102 36.858231 36.29401 36.770042 36.096195

27.020746 27.011402 27.270727 27.258472 27.65428 27.628443 27.898371 27.883892

18.441456 18.43717 18.57608 18.570415 18.557289 18.559141 18.657782 18.637423

8.301382 8.301382 8.281041 8.281041 8.154711 8.154711 8.154711 8.154711

2.807105 2.803626 2.807286 2.803803 2.80738 2.803898 2.820622 2.816786

3.17603 3.18916 3.254736 3.261912 3.349997 3.360599 3.462363 3.476622

2.963052 2.962952 2.98826 2.984991 3.009697 2.993133 3.017597 3.007562

0.343218 0.34315 0.340899 0.340809 0.338922 0.338933 0.344019 0.343962

99.974579 99.628883 100.427963 99.954552 100.730507 100.132874 101.125504 100.417152

92.495903 92.04055 94.37606 93.787331 96.566772 95.848747 99.053299 98.187141

2018 2019 2020 2021
89.995903 89.552856 92.276062 91.700432 94.566772 93.863617 97.053299 96.204628

4.799526 4.798364 4.659445 4.659527 4.376477 4.362278 4.666059 4.667832

45.399181 45.507179 46.008251 45.992737 46.522293 46.581104 47.176029 47.207642

2.265799 2.270051 2.298764 2.29843 2.326292 2.32808 2.359769 2.360848

2.787476 2.7907 2.824931 2.824581 2.850596 2.850463 2.882941 2.880958

10.0997 10.087284 10.191556 10.186156 10.140268 10.138294 10.100808 10.091579

101.540504 101.033485 105.212662 104.554863 109.372917 108.565216 114.029167 113.051659

98.796043 98.302727 102.871536 102.228371 107.107697 106.316719 111.726791 110.769012

5.268842 5.267193 5.19446 5.194478 4.956861 4.941031 5.371521 5.374494

49.838486 49.953514 51.291088 51.273067 52.691822 52.761127 54.308575 54.354389

2.487357 2.491848 2.562717 2.562308 2.634791 2.636951 2.716542 2.718256

3.060045 3.063368 3.1493 3.148865 3.228626 3.22864 3.318813 3.317105

11.087287 11.072874 11.361788 11.355608 11.485015 11.483364 11.627949 11.61934

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

19.797363 19.771658 19.588774 19.550236 19.336222 19.288673 19.190516 19.112738

3.615733 3.615631 3.734002 3.730564 3.795619 3.784627 3.841077 3.832084

30.852615 30.809504 31.604639 31.368788 32.128975 31.716642 32.565762 32.335934

21.943829 21.966307 22.013521 22.000916 22.20298 22.190182 22.364708 22.331518

8.154711 8.154711 8.154711 8.154711 8.154711 8.154711 8.154716 8.154716

2.821391 2.822544 2.834963 2.832938 2.841253 2.833122 2.841416 2.833285

4.852269 4.87431 4.949065 4.973601 4.991743 5.007803 5.081632 5.090801

3.024961 3.028142 3.048689 3.045652 3.075994 3.060069 3.085657 3.082372

0.236875 0.236668 0.236668 0.236875 0.236668 0.236875 0.236875 0.236875

95.299744 95.27948 96.165031 95.894287 96.76416 96.272705 97.362358 97.01033

13.471543 12.683041 13.537369 12.645301 13.672913 12.701921 13.702909 12.651493

4.224775 4.228602 4.213912 4.230803 4.20438 4.227619 4.196534 4.221895

2.208058 2.202593 2.121711 2.104129 2.094624 2.059539 2.038294 2.022458

0.172805 0.157612 0.165868 0.159394 0.171333 0.153285 0.14894 0.148861

20.077179 19.271849 20.038858 19.139626 20.14325 19.142363 20.086678 19.044708

6.335088 6.263748 6.403109 6.323843 6.445256 6.370111 6.484701 6.407761

4.682336 4.681724 4.992368 4.79494 5.282618 4.894836 5.44732 5.263202

3.188219 3.188219 3.232064 3.232064 3.272233 3.272234 3.307855 3.307855

14.205644 14.133691 14.627541 14.350847 15.000107 14.537182 15.239875 14.978817

-0.312188 -0.281657 -0.283621 -0.250513 -0.260056 -0.221205 -0.243354 -0.203617

36.657078 35.888271 36.539845 35.664833 36.412403 35.440262 36.280689 35.203789

28.203798 28.155977 28.555622 28.502268 28.758499 28.704149 28.971956 28.913082

18.75152 18.759834 18.768921 18.749617 18.930254 18.895407 19.025957 18.993341

8.154711 8.154711 8.154711 8.154711 8.154711 8.154711 8.154716 8.154716

2.821391 2.822544 2.834963 2.832938 2.841253 2.833122 2.841416 2.833285

3.519106 3.538989 3.610688 3.637132 3.650854 3.668117 3.74386 3.751099

3.024961 3.028142 3.048689 3.045652 3.075994 3.060069 3.085657 3.082372

0.350907 0.350827 0.346535 0.346431 0.34339 0.343258 0.348266 0.348159

101.483467 100.699295 101.85997 100.933578 102.167358 101.099091 102.452515 101.279839

101.571045 100.564476 104.215752 103.057991 106.68821 105.41172 108.988052 107.594543

2022 2023 2024 2025
99.571045 98.584297 102.215752 101.0802 104.688217 103.435654 106.988045 105.620117

4.821756 4.802879 4.958053 4.80584 5.11958 4.916217 5.233528 5.129915

47.639824 47.645123 48.214897 48.247269 49.06646 49.09248 49.668922 49.710888

2.386652 2.386708 2.416909 2.417891 2.458772 2.459503 2.491694 2.493237

2.916656 2.915069 2.945767 2.944727 2.982548 2.981488 3.018979 3.017428

10.015067 10.018126 9.983873 9.985982 10.093805 10.059986 10.123871 10.101814

118.883827 117.734283 124.058952 122.705009 129.19516 127.661278 134.247238 132.559235

116.542931 115.416023 121.678146 120.350166 126.773239 125.268112 131.783722 130.126694

5.643625 5.622896 5.902091 5.722028 6.199606 5.953898 6.446456 6.320186

55.760033 55.779781 57.395256 57.445145 59.417515 59.454571 61.180248 61.245087

2.793456 2.794201 2.8771 2.878839 2.977474 2.978638 3.069172 3.071732

3.4138 3.412771 3.506655 3.506111 3.611746 3.610799 3.718661 3.717549

11.722136 11.728565 11.884852 11.889713 12.223194 12.183376 12.47019 12.445695

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

18.827377 18.687778 18.479458 18.279297 18.153067 17.961796 17.865959 17.710173

3.882074 3.865207 3.907962 3.881351 3.932132 3.912672 3.945454 3.92743

33.17931 32.901924 33.798073 33.470257 34.387623 34.068413 34.836823 34.379509

22.312677 22.307341 22.320375 22.326719 22.310526 22.314775 22.429293 22.376526

8.154716 8.154716 8.154711 8.154711 8.163456 8.154711 8.177249 8.161953

2.842601 2.840301 2.850831 2.854523 2.855819 2.857775 2.867222 2.861303

5.120971 5.138877 5.147976 5.190135 5.177241 5.234149 5.241425 5.297809

3.106894 3.099083 3.145751 3.137822 3.17336 3.163141 3.197264 3.190864

0.236668 0.236668 0.236668 0.236668 0.236668 0.236668 0.236668 0.236668

97.663292 97.231903 98.041809 97.531494 98.3899 97.904099 98.797363 98.142235

13.988398 12.912944 14.313476 13.18063 14.575418 13.338001 14.824636 13.50402

4.17438 4.182052 4.155082 4.161552 4.133234 4.149317 4.106264 4.118398

1.986471 1.98051 1.95378 1.941096 1.950454 1.937493 1.970111 1.945246

0.160833 0.152259 0.173443 0.130012 0.198209 0.126783 0.175567 0.132182

20.310081 19.227766 20.595779 19.41329 20.857317 19.551594 21.07658 19.699844

6.571178 6.47647 6.658559 6.529596 6.709257 6.598624 6.786674 6.709695

5.724477 5.542118 6.07186 5.885949 6.405602 6.215881 6.746223 6.369114

3.272009 3.27268 3.269187 3.259812 3.296443 3.270445 3.390912 3.343296

15.567664 15.291267 15.999607 15.675357 16.411301 16.084949 16.923809 16.422106

-0.231986 -0.182261 -0.219532 -0.156644 -0.211531 -0.128441 -0.191185 -0.086504

36.125835 34.944088 36.010014 34.716137 35.887566 34.480724 35.744495 34.226761

29.252851 29.154772 29.486954 29.334955 29.73498 29.595362 29.858309 29.758682

19.019447 19.007082 19.052816 19.026602 19.044132 19.000856 19.038383 18.984344

8.154716 8.154716 8.154711 8.154711 8.163456 8.154711 8.177249 8.161953

2.842601 2.840301 2.850831 2.854523 2.855819 2.857775 2.867222 2.861303

3.783503 3.799008 3.809391 3.855068 3.837834 3.899811 3.902033 3.966531

3.106894 3.099083 3.145751 3.137822 3.17336 3.163141 3.197264 3.190864

0.351854 0.351605 0.347044 0.346247 0.350301 0.346809 0.356361 0.356032

102.637695 101.350662 102.857513 101.426071 103.047447 101.499184 103.141319 101.506477

110.920845 109.474655 113.348221 111.844185 115.313896 113.645287 117.3424 115.495705

2026 2027 2028 2029
108.920845 107.500732 111.348213 109.87072 113.313896 111.674232 115.3424 113.527184

5.360766 5.30354 5.487433 5.444646 5.59464 5.609112 5.776204 5.727788

50.185238 50.266666 50.811157 50.904438 51.595455 51.689167 52.265583 52.365871

2.520603 2.522855 2.552941 2.556869 2.592211 2.59626 2.627047 2.63078

3.053654 3.050958 3.082893 3.085165 3.111119 3.113298 3.137243 3.14127

10.163352 10.14593 10.240662 10.231925 10.280457 10.26547 10.334393 10.315483

138.992798 137.22377 144.522156 142.647675 149.637344 147.532532 155.054718 152.686142

136.486633 134.749512 141.972107 140.130692 147.042038 144.97374 152.411942 150.08374

6.717474 6.647857 6.996632 6.94418 7.259898 7.281662 7.632601 7.572176

62.886166 63.008022 64.785652 64.924248 66.952965 67.102066 69.063057 69.22805

3.15852 3.162336 3.255072 3.261068 3.363789 3.370424 3.471346 3.477911

3.826476 3.8243 3.930775 3.934864 4.03715 4.041635 4.145512 4.152781

12.735503 12.717672 13.057131 13.049944 13.34046 13.326472 13.655731 13.637142

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

17.711773 17.552622 17.404036 17.217833 17.225822 17.085833 17.17374 16.964239

3.984065 3.956977 4.026133 3.993716 4.052212 4.032064 4.067114 4.058307

35.18605 34.711937 35.426735 34.93763 35.811348 35.259865 36.170731 35.664192

22.612162 22.6033 22.63945 22.640478 22.64122 22.646139 22.618437 22.612782

8.181016 8.163968 8.190217 8.172492 8.192535 8.174693 8.203629 8.185454

2.872291 2.872056 2.875683 2.873732 2.881055 2.884513 2.881191 2.886113

5.294027 5.323562 5.338264 5.349082 5.358579 5.365534 5.38223 5.390972

3.225287 3.217556 3.26386 3.249012 3.303057 3.283631 3.331328 3.31326

0.236668 0.236668 0.236668 0.236668 0.236668 0.236668 0.23646 0.23646

99.303345 98.638649 99.401047 98.670654 99.702499 98.968941 100.064857 99.311775

15.004932 13.543483 15.326821 13.793001 15.512356 13.834156 15.581769 13.888032

4.078588 4.098776 4.059441 4.068585 4.060393 4.056614 4.039649 4.043544

2.013158 1.982445 2.05434 2.03251 2.023565 2.033055 2.023806 2.022266

0.118782 0.11879 0.115244 0.115274 0.109283 0.110782 0.100264 0.101525

21.215458 19.743492 21.555847 20.009371 21.705597 20.034607 21.745487 20.055367

6.907672 6.798453 7.022534 6.887526 7.127731 6.992398 7.204719 7.092714

6.963191 6.570556 7.108747 6.719767 7.279791 6.897308 7.377421 7.012187

3.552814 3.564226 3.612713 3.615615 3.655406 3.652233 3.655339 3.649971

17.423676 16.933235 17.743994 17.222908 18.062929 17.541939 18.237478 17.754873

-0.171375 -0.063919 -0.160147 -0.037977 -0.151667 -0.012802 -0.133417 0.007113

35.649609 34.007797 35.566242 33.81815 35.488327 33.632561 35.416527 33.470062

30.030592 29.924223 30.164454 30.047989 30.343412 30.182867 30.593811 30.452028

19.006927 18.987448 18.969868 18.968025 18.927328 18.934563 18.900223 18.899639

8.181016 8.163968 8.190217 8.172492 8.192535 8.174693 8.203629 8.185454

2.872291 2.872056 2.875683 2.873732 2.881055 2.884513 2.881191 2.886113

3.953909 3.993256 3.995415 4.018776 4.015746 4.035244 4.039173 4.057502

3.225287 3.217556 3.26386 3.249012 3.303057 3.283631 3.331328 3.31326

0.346868 0.346519 0.347306 0.346906 0.345367 0.346346 0.340406 0.341085

103.266502 101.512825 103.373047 101.495094 103.496834 101.474411 103.706284 101.605156

118.993767 116.993813 121.067307 118.925865 123.396637 121.017609 125.632835 123.201599

2030 2031 2032 2033
116.993767 115.027428 119.067307 116.961243 121.396645 119.056175 123.632835 121.240303

6.034758 5.955461 6.169094 6.137087 6.359075 6.31832 6.585333 6.453965

53.14962 53.254433 53.745762 53.768635 54.279789 54.498421 54.963959 55.01099

2.668806 2.673118 2.696581 2.698488 2.724712 2.731886 2.756246 2.758942

3.171798 3.172132 3.195009 3.200241 3.219081 3.221942 3.24436 3.246598

10.425936 10.402184 10.520489 10.497754 10.553414 10.560441 10.573455 10.589202

160.186829 157.559265 166.207062 163.326843 172.806366 169.562729 179.548264 176.164398

157.494476 154.911087 163.461365 160.628723 170.005539 166.814484 176.689957 173.35997

8.12386 8.020407 8.469231 8.428369 8.905336 8.852858 9.411434 9.228441

71.548866 71.719429 73.784782 73.843155 76.014168 76.35997 78.551781 78.659515

3.592689 3.599973 3.701997 3.705969 3.815724 3.827758 3.939092 3.944977

4.269806 4.272011 4.386264 4.395051 4.508046 4.514395 4.63668 4.642269

14.035169 14.008951 14.443036 14.417091 14.779147 14.796666 15.111061 15.141365

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

17.050535 16.833506 16.813204 16.624849 16.564762 16.415825 16.449987 16.273617

4.0895 4.065142 4.082143 4.06916 4.054708 4.052731 4.094332 4.056729

36.517929 36.03854 36.887135 36.465286 37.160206 36.800297 37.48925 37.147263

22.650522 22.655983 22.676699 22.689085 22.573128 22.61758 22.325602 22.406998

8.215731 8.197965 8.228396 8.211899 8.269506 8.226917 8.319079 8.264104

2.883274 2.887129 2.889709 2.888724 2.892824 2.889672 2.892971 2.892116

5.418451 5.418965 5.442934 5.44382 5.466829 5.482732 5.494514 5.502201

3.384349 3.360733 3.442269 3.397619 3.530954 3.438181 3.612816 3.483017

0.23646 0.23646 0.23646 0.23646 0.23646 0.23646 0.23646 0.23646

100.446747 99.69442 100.698944 100.026901 100.749374 100.160385 100.915009 100.262505

15.789996 14.008075 16.123373 14.233961 16.466021 14.447376 16.688995 14.662738

4.01438 4.034564 4.000389 4.023728 3.990967 4.017467 3.971073 3.994741

2.037226 2.051569 2.055088 2.080454 2.097705 2.12567 2.138121 2.170969

0.091871 0.091971 0.108073 0.105222 0.112101 0.105638 0.123591 0.088803

21.933474 20.186178 22.286922 20.443365 22.666792 20.696152 22.92178 20.91725

7.316747 7.181741 7.396861 7.294682 7.459906 7.364128 7.557948 7.435828

7.466819 7.112906 7.603891 7.256094 7.738072 7.394292 7.840524 7.496027

3.723315 3.726008 3.807796 3.791544 3.712768 3.738517 3.504877 3.525862

18.50688 18.020655 18.808548 18.342319 18.910746 18.496937 18.903349 18.457716

-0.122196 0.030277 -0.106838 0.056635 -0.097599 0.067387 -0.089205 0.088013

35.381374 33.353458 35.365353 33.232944 35.345112 33.134777 35.36573 33.091805

30.859961 30.747345 31.101389 31.053328 31.283096 31.296339 31.548811 31.58379

18.859365 18.859364 18.820854 18.837217 18.813879 18.818424 18.782572 18.802368

8.215731 8.197965 8.228396 8.211899 8.269506 8.226917 8.319079 8.264104

2.883274 2.887129 2.889709 2.888724 2.892824 2.889672 2.892971 2.892116

4.075393 4.088116 4.102876 4.114436 4.131771 4.149445 4.162952 4.177233

3.384349 3.360733 3.442269 3.397619 3.530954 3.438181 3.612816 3.483017

0.336099 0.335557 0.333315 0.335142 0.335887 0.338462 0.337718 0.339595

103.995537 101.829666 104.284157 102.071312 104.60302 102.292213 105.022644 102.634026

127.705498 125.148438 129.765854 127.040092 131.605621 128.712296 133.752213 130.778885

2034 2035 2036 2037
125.705505 123.188484 127.765854 125.082115 129.605621 126.756256 131.752213 128.823349

6.736744 6.647569 6.924771 6.877967 7.184536 7.122637 7.227438 7.214658

55.749699 55.642002 56.368313 56.234077 56.489666 56.60762 57.159962 57.269985

2.79165 2.789455 2.823757 2.819118 2.834356 2.838646 2.866313 2.870148

3.267167 3.272035 3.292048 3.295411 3.316737 3.319043 3.339171 3.34045

10.648924 10.633611 10.742988 10.725339 10.84128 10.822331 10.919644 10.887311

186.30925 182.680649 193.273895 189.331726 200.220428 195.903595 207.86586 203.308365

183.391449 179.819687 190.29509 186.413681 197.177689 192.926453 204.757645 200.268311

9.82822 9.703536 10.313788 10.250444 10.930314 10.840847 11.232244 11.21588

81.333099 81.221291 83.955238 83.807358 85.941505 86.158333 88.832954 89.031708

4.072731 4.071801 4.205718 4.201417 4.312095 4.320496 4.454571 4.461921

4.766462 4.776228 4.903192 4.911252 5.045974 5.051673 5.189445 5.193051

15.535689 15.522008 16.000658 15.984299 16.493565 16.471882 16.970345 16.925373

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

16.149881 16.009394 16.099022 15.851286 15.996357 15.822162 0.50% 0.50%

4.065044 4.04092 4.032364 4.010646 3.991315 3.96196 0.80% 0.80%

37.855762 37.443649 38.182117 37.714123 38.370724 37.88707 1.60% 1.60%

22.32378 22.364317 22.450769 22.479549 22.610752 22.65766 0.30% 0.30%

8.370747 8.373272 8.434354 8.493166 8.49116 8.5346 0.20% 0.20%

2.894455 2.895747 2.900717 2.902658 2.901317 2.902855 0.30% 0.30%

5.52736 5.530735 5.57404 5.556428 5.606266 5.554456 1.40% 1.40%

3.714874 3.570222 3.796523 3.669117 3.888971 3.779596 2.50% 2.40%

0.23646 0.23646 0.23646 0.23646 0.236253 0.23646 -2.00% -2.00%

101.138359 100.464714 101.706367 100.913422 102.093109 101.336815 0.90% 0.90%

17.153801 14.994381 17.249319 15.188806 17.425735 15.305021 -0.20% -0.70%

3.950523 3.98164 3.958355 3.972092 3.92962 3.94424 -0.30% -0.30%

2.164393 2.200589 2.193256 2.220775 2.277222 2.299143 -1.20% -1.20%

0.12378 0.114746 0.130121 0.123194 0.097823 0.094758 -4.50% -4.60%

23.392498 21.291355 23.531052 21.504868 23.7304 21.643164 -0.40% -0.70%

7.63188 7.487742 7.664593 7.538509 7.700371 7.580197 0.70% 0.70%

7.946939 7.601174 8.060628 7.712467 8.09186 7.748125 5.90% 5.70%

3.507544 3.515776 3.641567 3.640137 3.78604 3.796736 0.60% 0.60%

19.086363 18.604692 19.366789 18.891113 19.57827 19.125059 2.00% 1.90%

-0.073557 0.104258 -0.063383 0.127213 -0.06649 0.141129 - - - - 

35.397236 33.060871 35.390163 32.988026 35.353397 32.928337 -0.10% -0.30%

31.830194 31.799576 32.067436 31.972141 32.319588 32.189579 0.80% 0.70%

18.777382 18.799574 18.772505 18.797283 18.747803 18.787943 0.30% 0.30%

8.370747 8.373272 8.434354 8.493166 8.49116 8.5346 0.20% 0.20%

2.894455 2.895747 2.900717 2.902658 2.901317 2.902855 0.30% 0.30%

4.194007 4.208195 4.230904 4.236264 4.261736 4.247478 1.90% 1.90%

3.714874 3.570222 3.796523 3.669117 3.888971 3.779596 2.50% 2.40%

0.339146 0.339669 0.341411 0.341319 0.347764 0.343399 -0.40% -0.40%

105.518051 103.047119 105.934013 103.399963 106.311729 103.713791 0.40% 0.30%

135.774567 132.634705 138.460205 135.381958 141.456161 138.227158 0.80% 0.80%

2038 2039 2040 Growth Rate (2012-2040)
133.774567 130.680969 136.460205 133.426422 139.456177 136.272827 1.40% 1.30%

7.262855 7.279763 7.423724 7.359827 7.652016 7.501237 3.70% 3.60%

57.470722 57.440407 58.026016 58.143055 59.155956 59.174713 1.40% 1.40%

2.881977 2.881431 2.907769 2.911536 2.960135 2.960127 1.40% 1.40%

3.35985 3.362875 3.390973 3.391798 3.42591 3.422596 1.00% 1.00%

10.953766 10.91637 11.037162 10.992285 11.134843 11.072444 0.40% 0.40%

215.550919 210.639664 224.620239 219.704819 234.53244 229.227341 2.70% 2.60%

212.375778 207.536896 221.375687 216.531265 231.216492 225.986404 3.30% 3.20%

11.530252 11.561128 12.043307 11.943906 12.686941 12.439586 5.60% 5.50%

91.238487 91.222183 94.134041 94.357552 98.079788 98.131676 3.30% 3.30%

4.575325 4.576054 4.717194 4.724991 4.907864 4.90889 3.30% 3.30%

5.333979 5.340645 5.501083 5.504384 5.680112 5.675821 2.80% 2.80%

17.389812 17.336493 17.905289 17.838846 18.461422 18.361855 2.30% 2.30%

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

 Crude Oil

 Domestic Crude Production 1/ 9.416503 9.410554 9.288825 9.276834

 Alaska 0.412837 0.412837 0.388714 0.388714

 Lower 48 States 9.003667 8.997718 8.900111 8.888121

 Net Imports 5.888945 5.573508 5.942179 5.586615

 Gross Imports 6.036173 5.720737 6.080156 5.724592

 Exports 0.147228 0.147228 0.137977 0.137977

 Other Crude Supply 2/ 0 0 0 0

 Total Crude Supply 15.305449 14.984062 15.231005 14.863449

 Other Petroleum Supply 0.238948 0.220367 0.160282 0.144032

 Net Product Imports -0.831638 -0.796818 -0.891071 -0.846825

 Gross Refined Product Imports 3/ 0.989906 1.003002 1.006778 1.019674

 Unfinished Oil Imports 0.518693 0.518693 0.515077 0.515077

 Blending Component Imports 0.606742 0.604276 0.595522 0.593622

 Exports 2.946979 2.922789 3.008449 2.975198

 Refinery Processing Gain 4/ 1.070587 1.017185 1.051354 0.990857

 Product Stock Withdrawal 0 0 0 0

 Other Non-petroleum Supply 3.932692 3.921997 4.046521 4.032846

 Supply from Renewable Sources 1.026421 1.021871 1.04257 1.035257

 Ethanol 0.899872 0.876476 0.915509 0.891989

 Domestic Production 0.838685 0.817428 0.84875 0.833416

 Net Imports 0.061187 0.059049 0.066759 0.058573

 Stock Withdrawal 0 0 0 0

 Biodiesel 0.088487 0.088782 0.089 0.086759

 Domestic Production 0.076729 0.07703 0.07703 0.074791

 Net Imports 0.011758 0.011752 0.01197 0.011968

 Stock Withdrawal 0 0 0 0

 Other Biomass-derived Liquids 5/ 0.038061 0.056613 0.038061 0.056509

 Domestic Production 0.038061 0.056613 0.038061 0.056509

 Net Imports 0 0 0 0

 Stock Withdrawal 0 0 0 0

 Liquids from Gas 2.60798 2.607552 2.704508 2.704424

 Natural Gas Plant Liquids 2.60798 2.607552 2.704508 2.704424

 Gas-to-Liquids 0 0 0 0

 Liquids from Coal 0 0 0 0

 Other 6/ 0.298292 0.292574 0.299444 0.293166

 Total Primary Supply 7/ 19.477089 19.126427 19.437809 19.040327

Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply and Disposition

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply and Disposition

2021 2022
 Product Supplied 5.790852 5.755222 5.839431 5.80266

 by Fuel 16.438384 16.114815 16.38804 16.024131

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases and Other 8/ 2.742324 2.734513 2.779921 2.777492

 Motor Gasoline 9/ 8.227413 7.920027 8.100252 7.747744

 of which: E85 10/ 0.162138 0.191115 0.204473 0.240384

 Jet Fuel 11/ 1.496483 1.496504 1.502339 1.502384

 Distillate Fuel Oil 12/ 4.319947 4.311669 4.348485 4.339733

 of which: Diesel 3.972164 3.963771 4.005528 3.996511

 Residual Fuel Oil 0.389863 0.389891 0.38962 0.39005

 Other 13/ 2.310882 2.28292 2.326933 2.291896

 by Sector

 Residential and Commercial 0.873473 0.873863 0.864389 0.865259

 Industrial 14/ 5.42516 5.389892 5.48176 5.445185

 Transportation 13.108468 12.79201 13.021044 12.658509

 Electric Power 15/ 0.08098 0.08093 0.081549 0.081537

 Total 19.486916 19.135525 19.44755 19.049299

 Discrepancy 16/ -0.009827 -0.009098 -0.009741 -0.008972

Domestic Refinery Distillation Capacity 17/ 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658

Capacity Utilization Rate (percent) 18/ 84.42215 82.649437 84.011528 81.984161

Net Import Share of Product Supplied (perce

nt) 26.339933 25.344463 26.391024 25.263908

Net Expenditures for Imports of Crude Oil a

nd

 Petroleum Products (billion 2012 dollars) 207.326324 195.048004 214.502243 199.997833

cold starting issues, the percentage of ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of

74 percent is used for this forecast.

 11/ Includes only kerosene type.

on-site production of diesel and gasoline.

 6/ Includes domestic sources of other blending components, other hydrocarbons, and ethers.

 7/ Total crude supply plus other petroleum supply plus other non-petroleum supply.

 8/ Includes ethane, natural gasoline, and refinery olefins.

 9/ Includes ethanol and ethers blended into gasoline.

 10/ E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address

 1/ Includes lease condensate.

 2/ Strategic petroleum reserve stock additions plus unaccounted for crude oil and crude stock withdrawals minus crude pro

 3/ Includes other hydrocarbons and alcohols.

 4/ The volumetric amount by which total output is greater than input due to the processing of crude oil into products which

have a lower specific gravity than the crude oil processed.

 5/ Includes pyrolysis oils, biomass-derived Fischer-Tropsch liquids, biobutanol, and renewable feedstocks used for the
Other 2012 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2012, DOE/EIA-0340(2012)/1 (Washington, DC, September 2013).

Projections: EIA, AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System.

 - - = Not applicable.

 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 and 2012

are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports.

 Sources: 2011 and 2012 product supplied based on: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA),

Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/09) (Washington, DC, September 2013).

Other 2011 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2011, DOE/EIA-0340(2011)/1 (Washington, DC, August 2012).

 14/ Includes energy for combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating sy

 15/ Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status.

 16/ Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses, and gains.

 17/ End-of-year operable capacity.

 18/ Rate is calculated by dividing the gross annual input to atmospheric crude oil distillation units by their

operable refining capacity in barrels per calendar day.

 12/ Includes distillate fuel oil from petroleum and biomass feedstocks.

 13/ Includes kerosene, aviation gasoline, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, waxes, asphalt, road oil, still gas,

special naphthas, petroleum coke, crude oil product supplied, methanol, and miscellaneous petroleum products.
Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

9.190735 9.172777 9.072848 9.050695 9.004183 8.967821 8.832944 8.767463

0.36631 0.36631 0.345685 0.345685 0.326669 0.326669 0.307665 0.307665

8.824425 8.806467 8.727163 8.70501 8.677514 8.641152 8.525279 8.459798

5.974879 5.572408 6.035929 5.597808 6.052687 5.575617 6.187996 5.69387

6.109093 5.706623 6.16848 5.730359 6.183692 5.706623 6.31792 5.823794

0.134215 0.134215 0.132551 0.132551 0.131005 0.131005 0.129924 0.129924

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15.165613 14.745186 15.108777 14.648503 15.05687 14.543438 15.020941 14.461332

0.089492 0.074499 0.038306 0.021896 -0.009492 -0.028583 -0.08664 -0.107522

-0.942516 -0.889716 -0.975656 -0.918129 -1.006822 -0.946392 -1.068271 -1.005425

1.01992 1.037898 1.03091 1.062078 1.05515 1.075983 1.058768 1.075988

0.511461 0.511461 0.507846 0.507846 0.504231 0.504231 0.500615 0.500615

0.586201 0.582974 0.575914 0.563453 0.550558 0.549859 0.538036 0.533178

3.060099 3.022048 3.090325 3.051506 3.116761 3.076465 3.16569 3.115207

1.032008 0.964215 1.013961 0.940025 0.99733 0.917809 0.981631 0.897903

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4.13366 4.118896 4.182935 4.161053 4.214941 4.196456 4.244542 4.221252

1.040906 1.035863 1.042815 1.037534 1.041019 1.038079 1.040587 1.037797

0.914924 0.891696 0.915553 0.891738 0.915236 0.892267 0.915088 0.892028

0.854392 0.833404 0.854377 0.833404 0.854388 0.833416 0.854392 0.83342

0.060532 0.058292 0.061176 0.058334 0.060848 0.058851 0.060696 0.058608

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.088025 0.087554 0.089305 0.089183 0.087722 0.089199 0.087542 0.089259

0.075851 0.075386 0.077146 0.07703 0.075544 0.07703 0.075386 0.077113

0.012174 0.012168 0.012159 0.012152 0.012178 0.012169 0.012155 0.012146

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.037958 0.056613 0.037958 0.056613 0.038061 0.056613 0.037958 0.056509

0.037958 0.056613 0.037958 0.056613 0.038061 0.056613 0.037958 0.056509

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2.793027 2.790454 2.839025 2.830829 2.872898 2.866172 2.903315 2.890725

2.793027 2.790454 2.839025 2.830829 2.872898 2.866172 2.903315 2.890725

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.299727 0.292579 0.301095 0.292691 0.301023 0.292206 0.30064 0.29273

19.388767 18.938581 19.330017 18.831453 19.262318 18.711311 19.178843 18.575062

2023 2024 2025 2026
5.887284 5.846394 5.933704 5.888986 5.970933 5.922499 5.985422 5.935211

16.326228 15.915083 16.240906 15.785364 16.144405 15.64188 16.043649 15.491404

2.815053 2.814054 2.834736 2.833996 2.843309 2.844347 2.840814 2.842637

7.963089 7.56385 7.821501 7.380097 7.672413 7.185688 7.538225 7.004482

0.222566 0.266532 0.242672 0.292709 0.262485 0.320962 0.279335 0.346021

1.508082 1.508122 1.514818 1.514835 1.522291 1.522307 1.529134 1.529143

4.378462 4.367818 4.404473 4.391259 4.436998 4.420281 4.460839 4.440669

4.040004 4.029057 4.069851 4.056436 4.106392 4.089538 4.135476 4.115142

0.390509 0.390232 0.392071 0.39118 0.392706 0.392121 0.392729 0.392737

2.343264 2.303347 2.372275 2.328987 2.404312 2.355288 2.426516 2.37431

0.856255 0.85754 0.848676 0.850167 0.841073 0.842473 0.833714 0.835203

5.536664 5.495486 5.589576 5.544222 5.635637 5.586725 5.657545 5.606765

12.924597 12.513474 12.819832 12.364306 12.713536 12.209325 12.616394 12.061529

0.082155 0.082142 0.08302 0.082902 0.083024 0.082757 0.081849 0.081734

19.398457 18.947424 19.339874 18.840353 19.272028 18.72003 19.188255 18.583979

-0.009689 -0.008842 -0.009857 -0.0089 -0.00971 -0.008718 -0.009413 -0.008917

18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658

83.650841 81.331833 83.337349 80.798561 83.051041 80.21904 82.852859 79.766151

26.330032 25.097721 26.557705 25.224632 26.574638 25.119802 27.074511 25.621441

220.992096 204.240387 228.389603 209.926788 234.269226 213.245514 243.981995 221.281433

anol content of

ine (nonrenewable). To address

 stock withdrawals minus crude product supplied.

sing of crude oil into products which, in total,

wable feedstocks used for the
on, DC, September 2013).

r 2011 and 2012

on, DC, August 2012).

tus, and small on-site generating systems.

lants that have a regulatory status.

tion units by their

sphalt, road oil, still gas,

us petroleum products.
Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

8.66966 8.575686 8.515922 8.426367 8.380416 8.307769 8.304714 8.230645

0.288774 0.288774 0.271349 0.271349 0.255255 0.255255 0.240371 0.240371

8.380886 8.286912 8.244573 8.155018 8.125161 8.052514 8.064343 7.990275

6.332961 5.817353 6.455387 5.893084 6.566886 5.958032 6.635491 5.977467

6.462374 5.946767 6.583871 6.021569 6.695328 6.086473 6.765434 6.10741

0.129414 0.129414 0.128485 0.128485 0.128441 0.128441 0.129943 0.129943

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15.002621 14.393038 14.971308 14.31945 14.947302 14.2658 14.940206 14.208113

-0.149423 -0.163295 -0.195052 -0.225709 -0.257532 -0.311763 -0.336527 -0.391541

-1.122708 -1.042063 -1.158872 -1.086931 -1.214273 -1.162049 -1.293569 -1.222869

1.065757 1.079821 1.065918 1.084308 1.061431 1.079907 1.056016 1.079294

0.497 0.497 0.493385 0.493385 0.489769 0.489769 0.486154 0.486154

0.524864 0.522441 0.51505 0.513078 0.505088 0.501102 0.496122 0.492206

3.210329 3.141325 3.233226 3.177702 3.270561 3.232828 3.331861 3.280523

0.973285 0.878768 0.963821 0.861222 0.956742 0.850286 0.957042 0.831328

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4.266077 4.231518 4.283629 4.253539 4.290867 4.262371 4.322494 4.28329

1.040669 1.035306 1.040782 1.033511 1.04022 1.030411 1.040669 1.02927

0.915186 0.885062 0.915334 0.870429 0.91476 0.854054 0.914831 0.848584

0.85523 0.825567 0.855847 0.810978 0.855835 0.794215 0.855847 0.788778

0.059957 0.059495 0.059487 0.059451 0.058925 0.059839 0.058984 0.059805

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.087525 0.087516 0.08749 0.087481 0.087502 0.087496 0.08788 0.087509

0.075386 0.075386 0.075386 0.075386 0.075386 0.075386 0.07575 0.075386

0.012139 0.01213 0.012104 0.012095 0.012116 0.01211 0.012131 0.012123

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.037958 0.062729 0.037958 0.075601 0.037958 0.088862 0.037958 0.093177

0.037958 0.062729 0.037958 0.075601 0.037958 0.088862 0.037958 0.093177

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2.922893 2.902979 2.940651 2.926045 2.950508 2.937003 2.978853 2.95854

2.922893 2.902979 2.940651 2.926045 2.950508 2.937003 2.978853 2.95854

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.302516 0.293232 0.302197 0.293983 0.300139 0.294957 0.302972 0.295481

19.119274 18.461262 19.059887 18.347281 18.980637 18.216408 18.926172 18.099861

2027 2028 2029 2030
6.016669 5.959201 6.042064 5.976262 6.031832 5.960508 6.030659 5.944792

15.957199 15.35874 15.885176 15.230953 15.806398 15.10112 15.745043 14.983798

2.844868 2.847751 2.857808 2.850548 2.848682 2.835516 2.840257 2.81877

7.41816 6.840541 7.31573 6.695893 7.224996 6.564238 7.146273 6.441514

0.294067 0.362117 0.305464 0.369935 0.313237 0.372397 0.318727 0.381336

1.53507 1.53506 1.540705 1.540636 1.545791 1.545731 1.550583 1.550515

4.47965 4.456226 4.487029 4.460208 4.498954 4.467896 4.516384 4.481608

4.159101 4.135388 4.170933 4.143876 4.186929 4.155635 4.20793 4.172999

0.39312 0.393322 0.394136 0.394504 0.394859 0.395153 0.396202 0.396371

2.458132 2.39729 2.474024 2.414878 2.476266 2.417578 2.485746 2.421042

0.826392 0.827966 0.819928 0.82129 0.813193 0.814797 0.807109 0.808602

5.694529 5.636556 5.724005 5.658278 5.71842 5.647301 5.722938 5.637636

12.527696 11.925314 12.445028 11.796723 12.377145 11.683236 12.324268 11.582395

0.081641 0.08163 0.081735 0.081701 0.08204 0.082053 0.082366 0.082347

19.129 18.470194 19.069431 18.35667 18.989548 18.226112 18.935446 18.109821

-0.009726 -0.008932 -0.009544 -0.00939 -0.008911 -0.009705 -0.009274 -0.00996

18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658

82.751808 79.389465 82.579086 78.983559 82.446686 78.68763 82.407532 78.369438

27.628391 26.254515 28.164417 26.585403 28.574669 26.722786 28.600803 26.6661

254.790054 231.121765 263.618317 238.215576 272.543701 244.043137 278.598022 248.242264

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

8.159544 8.072913 8.072735 8.007761 8.044679 7.948018 7.984591 7.884427

0.226587 0.226587 0.273065 0.273065 0.340211 0.340211 0.388438 0.388438

7.932957 7.846326 7.79967 7.734696 7.704468 7.607807 7.596154 7.495989

6.779545 6.089052 6.862329 6.10925 6.897704 6.137457 6.998343 6.19443

6.909001 6.218508 6.989813 6.236734 7.023462 6.263216 7.123044 6.31913

0.129456 0.129456 0.127484 0.127484 0.125759 0.125759 0.124701 0.124701

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14.939089 14.161964 14.935063 14.11701 14.942383 14.085475 14.982935 14.078857

-0.415023 -0.471954 -0.473337 -0.551018 -0.533088 -0.627088 -0.618314 -0.693296

-1.368313 -1.288449 -1.427032 -1.355928 -1.482378 -1.42144 -1.563064 -1.477939

1.05697 1.074369 1.070215 1.082518 1.072165 1.092891 1.07661 1.100724

0.482538 0.482538 0.478923 0.478923 0.475308 0.475308 0.471692 0.471692

0.486642 0.481782 0.477477 0.47191 0.468303 0.462037 0.456796 0.452164

3.394464 3.327139 3.453647 3.389279 3.498154 3.451675 3.568162 3.502519

0.95329 0.816496 0.953695 0.80491 0.949291 0.794352 0.94475 0.784643

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4.356712 4.310167 4.376366 4.338001 4.386152 4.356107 4.403698 4.36119

1.041856 1.029254 1.041098 1.029234 1.041115 1.028565 1.042102 1.029207

0.914635 0.848584 0.913895 0.848584 0.91389 0.846378 0.914847 0.848338

0.855847 0.788778 0.855835 0.788767 0.855835 0.788767 0.855835 0.788767

0.058788 0.059805 0.05806 0.059817 0.058056 0.057611 0.059012 0.059571

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.089263 0.087493 0.089245 0.087473 0.08937 0.089115 0.089402 0.087796

0.077146 0.075386 0.077146 0.075386 0.077261 0.077011 0.077261 0.075672

0.012118 0.012107 0.0121 0.012087 0.01211 0.012103 0.012141 0.012124

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.037958 0.093177 0.037958 0.093177 0.037854 0.093073 0.037854 0.093073

0.037958 0.093177 0.037958 0.093177 0.037854 0.093073 0.037854 0.093073

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3.010346 2.985605 3.028849 3.013316 3.038397 3.031924 3.054612 3.036113

3.010346 2.985605 3.028849 3.013316 3.038397 3.031924 3.054612 3.036113

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.30451 0.295309 0.306419 0.295452 0.30664 0.295618 0.306984 0.295871

18.880777 18.000177 18.838093 17.903994 18.795446 17.814493 18.768318 17.746752

2031 2032 2033 2034
6.029663 5.93829 6.026745 5.929416 6.010539 5.910381 5.994172 5.895799

15.69667 14.887126 15.651812 14.791755 15.612072 14.702749 15.575609 14.632561

2.836118 2.815165 2.830849 2.806889 2.818017 2.789517 2.792467 2.772236

7.080946 6.331144 7.02686 6.233982 6.982539 6.147323 6.943378 6.072315

0.321052 0.392092 0.319027 0.39967 0.314672 0.400835 0.309967 0.405057

1.555024 1.554942 1.559142 1.559053 1.562889 1.562783 1.566164 1.566064

4.528018 4.489589 4.53449 4.491687 4.544459 4.499084 4.566219 4.51471

4.224582 4.185875 4.234961 4.191831 4.248627 4.203126 4.2736 4.221946

0.396595 0.397269 0.396963 0.398197 0.398011 0.398485 0.398714 0.399416

2.493514 2.422142 2.499404 2.424474 2.498679 2.426421 2.510372 2.431383

0.80122 0.802781 0.795458 0.796997 0.790069 0.791531 0.784119 0.786588

5.727085 5.637102 5.727955 5.632305 5.715195 5.617409 5.703929 5.606909

12.281888 11.490588 12.24421 11.404569 12.219083 11.334796 12.208592 11.282055

0.08125 0.08133 0.081303 0.081434 0.081449 0.081461 0.081865 0.081769

18.890217 18.010252 18.84771 17.914282 18.804594 17.823614 18.777315 17.756124

-0.009439 -0.010075 -0.009617 -0.010288 -0.009148 -0.009121 -0.008997 -0.009373

18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658

82.40139 78.114906 82.379173 77.866936 82.419548 77.692993 82.643227 77.656494

29.035553 27.06926 29.225126 26.950554 29.185209 26.864254 29.338976 26.980635

289.048889 257.127533 297.603973 262.016449 305.143311 267.988861 315.754913 275.02948

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

7.872269 7.785408 7.754629 7.686177 7.699487 7.617809 7.558843 7.493415

0.378168 0.378168 0.368597 0.368597 0.359665 0.359665 0.321691 0.321691

7.494101 7.40724 7.386033 7.317581 7.339821 7.258144 7.237151 7.171724

7.149344 6.296637 7.303795 6.394125 7.406397 6.491948 7.618123 6.642788

7.272789 6.420082 7.427744 6.518074 7.530535 6.616086 7.742245 6.76691

0.123445 0.123445 0.123949 0.123949 0.124137 0.124137 0.124122 0.124122

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15.021612 14.082045 15.058424 14.080302 15.105885 14.109757 15.176966 14.136204

-0.668815 -0.766599 -0.704074 -0.808564 -0.769498 -0.864187 -0.811373 -0.896841

-1.613156 -1.546621 -1.650264 -1.582677 -1.716191 -1.635668 -1.761562 -1.668662

1.082227 1.109633 1.093154 1.122156 1.095712 1.121669 1.097255 1.126386

0.468077 0.468077 0.464462 0.464462 0.460846 0.460846 0.45723 0.45723

0.448365 0.443279 0.437879 0.433407 0.428378 0.420041 0.418416 0.410275

3.611825 3.567611 3.645758 3.602701 3.701127 3.638223 3.734463 3.662552

0.94434 0.780022 0.94619 0.774112 0.946693 0.771481 0.950189 0.771821

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4.399092 4.36477 4.377561 4.351461 4.406972 4.354713 4.389887 4.34354

1.04151 1.029528 1.039404 1.028559 1.038624 1.028546 1.041671 1.028563

0.914258 0.849433 0.91218 0.846378 0.911655 0.846323 0.914454 0.846378

0.853584 0.788767 0.849833 0.78863 0.847575 0.782333 0.848554 0.780567

0.060674 0.060667 0.062348 0.057748 0.06408 0.06399 0.0659 0.065811

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.089397 0.087021 0.08937 0.089108 0.089115 0.08915 0.089363 0.089112

0.077261 0.074922 0.077261 0.077011 0.077011 0.077049 0.077261 0.077011

0.012137 0.012098 0.012109 0.012096 0.012103 0.012101 0.012102 0.0121

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.037854 0.093073 0.037854 0.093073 0.037854 0.093073 0.037854 0.093073

0.037854 0.093073 0.037854 0.093073 0.037854 0.093073 0.037854 0.093073

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3.04924 3.039202 3.028998 3.027104 3.058621 3.030406 3.037477 3.019149

3.04924 3.039202 3.028998 3.027104 3.058621 3.030406 3.037477 3.019149

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.308342 0.296041 0.309159 0.295799 0.309727 0.295761 0.310739 0.295828

18.751888 17.680216 18.731911 17.623199 18.743359 17.600285 18.75548 17.582903

2035 2036 2037 2038
5.985247 5.883538 5.973822 5.87075 5.988903 5.879485 5.99751 5.887974

15.558127 14.565179 15.533104 14.512157 15.534312 14.476453 15.528578 14.446315

2.782671 2.75888 2.76675 2.749638 2.771581 2.747043 2.7629 2.742427

6.909336 6.005344 6.881879 5.946393 6.862229 5.897935 6.849751 5.857478

0.297484 0.405422 0.281486 0.395306 0.264501 0.385771 0.245667 0.372416

1.569109 1.568994 1.573336 1.573213 1.577515 1.577384 1.58163 1.581476

4.586548 4.521832 4.59785 4.530066 4.60704 4.538616 4.615688 4.546823

4.297011 4.231961 4.311139 4.242913 4.322987 4.254091 4.334297 4.264934

0.399925 0.400588 0.401219 0.4019 0.40173 0.402687 0.402443 0.403481

2.513114 2.434199 2.519142 2.432059 2.531539 2.44523 2.550776 2.460177

0.779706 0.782281 0.775552 0.77861 0.771922 0.775084 0.768688 0.771891

5.698501 5.59855 5.690427 5.589018 5.708889 5.601415 5.719102 5.612385

12.201549 11.228075 12.192887 11.184274 12.189212 11.150742 12.193395 11.125843

0.082123 0.082127 0.082472 0.082482 0.08277 0.082809 0.083155 0.083134

18.760704 17.689837 18.740177 17.633268 18.751633 17.608894 18.763191 17.591862

-0.008816 -0.009621 -0.008266 -0.010069 -0.008274 -0.00861 -0.007711 -0.008959

18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658

82.856575 77.67408 83.059608 77.664467 83.321396 77.826927 83.713463 77.972809

29.91165 27.27784 30.578768 27.698109 30.764973 28.024384 31.64176 28.732672

327.328461 283.749634 338.679474 291.286163 347.810272 298.296356 363.353607 309.968964

Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT Reference Low VMT

7.530283 7.415386 7.480167 7.398899 0.50% 0.50%

0.288702 0.288702 0.259987 0.259987 -2.50% -2.50%

7.241581 7.126685 7.220181 7.138912 0.70% 0.60%

7.662498 6.731947 7.742801 6.788498 -0.30% -0.80%

7.786319 6.855768 7.866511 6.912208 -0.30% -0.70%

0.123821 0.123821 0.12371 0.12371 2.60% 2.60%

0 0 0 0 - - - -

15.192781 14.147333 15.222968 14.187397 0.00% -0.20%

-0.822815 -0.927963 -0.862155 -0.964416 - - - - 

-1.777179 -1.700885 -1.816797 -1.73768 2.50% 2.30%

1.108745 1.132601 1.097406 1.129244 0.90% 1.00%

0.453616 0.453616 0.45 0.45 -1.00% -1.00%

0.408454 0.400508 0.398491 0.390741 -1.50% -1.60%

3.747993 3.68761 3.762695 3.707665 0.80% 0.80%

0.954364 0.772922 0.954642 0.773264 -0.40% -1.20%

0 0 0 0 - - - -

4.378557 4.322582 4.36415 4.282035 0.80% 0.70%

1.0533 1.028756 1.067689 1.023443 0.70% 0.50%

0.928873 0.847035 0.946005 0.874191 0.50% 0.20%

0.859024 0.779444 0.862785 0.804729 0.10% -0.20%

0.069849 0.067591 0.08322 0.069462 - - - -

0 0 0 0 - - - -

0.089108 0.088648 0.089448 0.089363 - - - -

0.077011 0.076562 0.077376 0.077261 0.70% 0.70%

0.012096 0.012085 0.012072 0.012103 - - - -

0 0 0 0 - - - -

0.035319 0.093073 0.032237 0.059888 - - - -

0.035319 0.093073 0.032237 0.059888 - - - -

0 0 0 0 - - - -

0 0 0 0 - - - -

3.013617 2.997128 2.983552 2.961367 0.80% 0.80%

3.013617 2.997128 2.983552 2.961367 0.80% 0.80%

0 0 0 0 - - - -

0 0 0 0 - - - -

0.31164 0.296699 0.312909 0.297225 1.80% 1.60%

18.748524 17.541952 18.724962 17.505016 0.00% -0.20%

2039 2040 Growth Rate (2012-2040)
5.981876 5.870871 5.956533 5.843701

15.523166 14.406535 15.503649 14.330946

2.749513 2.726295 2.728679 2.695961 0.60% 0.50%

6.844498 5.824443 6.840818 5.763637 -0.90% -1.50%

0.237414 0.355107 0.22813 0.336188 11.90% 13.40%

1.585529 1.585265 1.589608 1.589305 0.50% 0.50%

4.62244 4.549695 4.620763 4.558592 0.80% 0.70%

4.343626 4.270532 4.344544 4.282043 0.80% 0.80%

0.403421 0.40388 0.404459 0.404439 0.60% 0.60%

2.550128 2.461533 2.547176 2.466752 0.90% 0.80%

0.764992 0.768222 0.761034 0.764129 -0.80% -0.70%

5.70614 5.596805 5.683921 5.571159 0.90% 0.80%

12.201965 11.103251 12.203708 11.059174 -0.30% -0.70%

0.083572 0.083528 0.083962 0.083977 -0.70% -0.70%

18.755531 17.551107 18.731504 17.478685 0.00% -0.20%

-0.007008 -0.009155 -0.006542 0.026331 - - -4.80%

18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 18.129658 0.20% 0.20%

83.800713 78.034195 83.967209 78.255173 -0.20% -0.50%

31.827915 29.134375 32.156517 29.3195 -0.80% -1.10%

372.929199 321.385406 385.393707 331.330536 0.70% 0.20%