# EPA Public Hearing: Proposed Carbon Regulations for Power Plants 

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# 'b~ **~** Testimony Delivered at: EPA Region 8 Office 1595 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO 80202 Tuesday 29 July 2014 By: William Owens, Jr., Centennial, CO 80112 "Accepting a Truer Cost of Coal-fired Power Generation " Introduction My name is William Owens, a resident of Centennial , CO
. Thank you for the opportunity to testify
. May I deliver two testimonies in this time slot? Thank you! The first is from Ms . Leslie Weise , of Monument , CO
. I will then deliver my testimony and finish within the five-minute time limit. Ms . Weise ' s testimony I have worked as in-house counsel for Fortune 500 companies , focusing for the past 10 years on those developing technology and products to displace fossil fuels for energy production . (I have solar PV panels on my home , and drive a plug-in hybrid vehicle . ) My 8-year old son and I have witnessed , literally from the road side , three of Colorado ' s most destructive wildfires over the past 3 years : Boulder' s 4-mile Canyon fire , the Waldo Canyon fire , and the Black Forest fire that destroyed over 500 homes including that of my sister . It's disturbing that he is growing up believing that these wildfires are normal. Yet, he is academically advanced in science (and has given two class presentations on carbon and water cycles). So he was genuinely confused when a substitute teacher read to his class a book about weather and then told the class that climate change was not true , but was someth i ng made up by scientists . Because of our knowledge and advocacy on the topic , that teacher was reprimanded and had to make a statement of correction to the class. Climate change denial also exists in the Colorado Springs City Council , which manages their electric utility . At city council meetings I volunteer with a small group of community professionals to ensure that a blend of renewable energy and efficiency investments are included in the utility ' s plans to serve over 500 , 000 people . Change won ' t be easy because at last month ' s City Council meeting we heard two members of the City Council profess to be climate change deniers , with one of them proudly stating he had written extensively on the " hoax " . I've seen the real-world impact of climate change in the catastrophic impact of the Colorado fires and in the teacher's and council members ' ignorance on the science of climate. Therefore , I enthusiastically support the EPA ' s plans for carbon reduction standards so that this critical topic can be addressed , rather than ignored . (End of Ms. Weise ' s testimony) Mr . Owens ' testimony (next page)

# " Accepting a Truer Cost of Coal-fired Power Generation " Testimony by Ms . Leslie Weise and Mr . William Owens (continued) This debate about C02 in power production is often framed in the context of jobs . I ' m not here to deny the importance of jobs. I ' ve been laid off a few times so , I fully appreciate the value of jobs . But we should also weigh the costs of C02 and other harmful emissions from burning coal because they impose a tremendous cost on human health . The coal industry (producers and users) want us to simply accept the value of the electricity they produce . They say that to do otherwise will cost us jobs . You see , they are waving the JOBS flag to distract us from its costs to life and health . The costs include : 1 . The negative impact to the agriculture we need to sustain life due to C02- driven climate change , 2 . The increase in downwind debilitating asthma cases , 3 . Breathing difficulties for others with impaired lungs due to nitrous and sulfurous oxides from older plants , and 4 . Changing our diet to reduce or eliminate the consumption of coal plant mercury laden tuna from our diet. So , as we hear the coal industry's argument on behalf of jobs , we must also consider the cost to public health . We should ask , "How many created or saved coal industry jobs are needed to offset the cost of the lives they compromise?" We can do better . I urge that the EPA ' s proposed regulations be adopted substantially as proposed . We have to start somewhere , and this is a small but important step toward doing better . Part of the solution to reach 30% C02 reduction is to use more clean and renewable energy sources . They , too , create jobs, but they don ' t cost lives and health like coal plants do . (End of Mr . Owens ' testimony) On behalf of Ms . Leslie Weise and myself , thank you for this opportunity to testify. 29 July 2014 Rev 4 WO

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# U.S. F or e sees a Thinner Cushion of C oal

BY. REB ECCA SMITH 

### Every ye a r , fe d er-al e m p l oye e Geo r ge Wa rh o li c .ca l c ul a t e s America 's vast coal reserv es the s ame way hi s pr ede c e ss ors ha ve fo r de ca d es: He , oo k s u p t h e prior yea r 's c oal-r es erve e s t i· m a t e, s ub tra cts the y ear' s n ation · wid e p r o duction an d arri ves at a n ew offici al tal ly . Coa l provid es nearly o n e· q u arter of the total e n e r gy c on · s u m ed in t h e U .S., and b y Mr . Wa rh o li c ' s es timate, the c o u n t ry has e n o u g h in 

### th e g ro un d to l a s t ab o ut 24 0 y ears. A b e li e f i n t hi s n ea rl y bo undl ess s upp l y h as l e d off i ci al s t o dub t h e U .S. th e "S au di A r ab i a of Co al." B u t the e s ti m ate , r ec ent findi n gs s h o w, m ay b e wil dly o v er · c o nfide n t . Whil e t h e r e is alm ost c er - tai nly as muc h coal in th e groun d as Mr . Wa r h o li c' s E n e r gy ln fo r · mati o n Admini s tratio n be li eve s , re l ative ly little o f it can b e p r ofit · ab l y extra c te d. Las t year , the U.S. Geol ogi c al Survey co mp leted an exten s i ve analys i s o f Wyoming 's Gillett e coal fie l d , t h e n at i on 's largest a nd m ost p r o du ctive, and d e te rmin e d t h a t l ess t han 6 % o f the coal in its b igge s t bed s could be min ed p r ofi t ably, e v e n a t p ric es high er th an toda y's. " W e r e al ly ca n' t s ay w e ' r e th e S audi Arabi a of co al a nymor e," says Bre nd a Pi e r ce , head of t he U SGS t ea m th at co n ducte d t h e s tudy . No o n e s a ys th e U. S. i s f aci n g a coal short age . But th e e m e r ging r ank s o f " p ea k coal" t h eori sts ar gu e t h at c urre n t p r od u c t ion l eve l s ma y b e un s u s taina b le a nd , i f anythin g, c r ea t e a false se n se of sec ur ity . David Rut
l e d g e , an e l ectri c al- e n g i n ee r i n g pro fe sso r a t th e C alif o rni a Jn sti· tute o f Tec hn ol o gy w h o h as s tu d
i e d g l o bal coal produ c ti o n , fi g · ure s th e U. S . ha s ab o ut h al f as mu c h recove r a bl e rese r ve s a s t h e gove rnm ent say s, which w ou l d w o r k o ut to about 120 years' w orth. The Ene rgy I nfo r mat ion Ad


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## Peak C o a l U .S. 

### bitumi no us coa l pro duction b y r e g i o n : 800 mil lion short t ons



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1950 '60 '70 '80 '90 2000 S ource . En •rgy

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# U.S . Foresees a T hinner S ecurity Blanket F rom lt s L"oal Deposit s Con tinu e d from the prior pa ge mini s tration , part o f th e Depart
ment o f En e r gy , s a ys i t is r eassess ing Its co al t all y in Ug h t o f th e ne.VI( Geo l o g i c al S urvey data . I t i n te nd s · to c r eate a n e w coal b as eline from which it will begin i ts annual subtraction " as soon as w e can , n says William W a tson , a me m ber of th e en e r gy a n al ysi s t eam at EIA i n Was hington , D. C . In th e field. chall enges are ,b e - c oming . more appare nt . M inin g companie s r eport they have t o di g deep e r and m ove m oreeart h toex tract coaUro m aging mine s , drivi ng

**up cgs**  **s.** Utiliti e s h a ve gro wn s kittis h a b o ut w h e th erls u p pli e r s c an s hi p p r o mis e d co ru , o n tim e . American E lectric P ower Co . , th e nation's b iggest coal buye r, s ays it has step ped up i ts du e dil i ge n c e t o make · s w e i ts s uppliers c an ma . k e deliveries afte r s om e firms mi ssed s hip m e n ts last fall . lt even bougli t a mine t o loc k d o wn s upp lies. "We are very muc h c oncerned, and i t: s getting wor se , " s aid Tim L

ight , s e ni or vi c e p r es ide nt for AEP. Coal mines be_g an a ppe aring in Americ a in th e ear l y 17 4 0s in Vir
- ginia _ A c e n tury l ater, a s th e n a tio

n 's rail ro a d s b ranc h e d ou t , coal provid e d fu e l fo r stea m s hips o n the Mi s s i ssippi and bl ast furna ces that made stee l. Th e U . S . came to · rel

y o n a bun dant c oal to gen erat e ele ctricity , too . About h alf of th e e lectri c power in th e

**U. ~**  s till i s prod u c e d b y coal combustion, m o re 

### than in m ost o therindustri al
ized nations . Th e c o un try' s c oal s u ppli e s have been seen as a bulwark o f e n ergy s e curity. In 1 979, a s the U.$ . wasreelingfrom an oil s h oc k , Pr

es iden t Jimm y Carter p ush e d for projec ts to cr eate liq uefi ed g as from Ameri ca' s vast c o al r e s erve s. T o d ay .t h e U.S . p r o du c e s U billion tons o f coal annu all y , more thR n any nation b ut C hina . Co n c e rn s abou t s u pp li es ar e o u t o f the spo tlig ht n o w , m asked by what could b e a short
- term l ull 

### ip. U, e appetite f o r coal .

**·• Rg~;ess** 

**io n**  h a s re . duced d e · mand fro'fon t h e two b igges t use rs o f c oal, el e ctr i city prod u c ers and ste elmake r s . A p r opose d r aw cap p ing gree nh ou s e - ga s e mi ssion s could m ake coal
- gen e rat e d e le c trici ty-c u r r e n t l y o n e of th e c h e a pe st power s o urc es-s ignifi
can tl y mor e ex pensive. At the same time, th e co tmtry has f o und i ts elf a w as h in cleane r - burning n atural . gas after recen t b i g dis c o veries ; p rompting so m e powerco m 

## P owe r Sourc e 

# I T h e U .S !'s t e ll at1ce 

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- produ cl;..g areas of the 

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U . S. net e l ectr icity genera t i

on , ·' I

n mill ions o f m egawatt h qu rs, 200 8

I I H y droele c tric O t her 24 8. 1 1 84 .7 pru1 i e s t o p u ll th e p lu g on p r oposed co al 

### · PI a n ts and shift towar d gas- fue l e d powe r g e ne ratio n . Exp er ts exp ect co al p r o du cti o n t o drop thi s year by 5 % t o 10 % , o r as much . as 1 00 milli o n to n s . Pric e s f o r co al f rom W yo min g's P

o wd e r Rive r B asin are down n e ar l y 30% fr o m a y e a r ago, to a b o ut $8.50 a t on. ( Price s o f East
e rn coal , w h ich bur n s h otter and typi c a lly d oes n 't h ave to be t r an s p orte d a s f ar to c u sto m e r s , h a v e als o fall e n . ) C

oal is down but h a rdl y out . It remains the el ec tri c - p o w e r indus
try's do min a nt fu el. E m erg ing " cle an co al'' techno l ogy coul d h elp improve co al 's e n viro nmen tal pr o fi l e. An d c oal r emains an e n ergy ace in the h ole , availa bl e to substi
tute for o th e r fuel s if shipme n ts are

**di rup**  **te~.** S ome in the c oal in du s try b eli e ve c onc ern s a b o u t fu ture s up plie s are o verbl o wn_ C o al ad vo cat

esarguethatimpro vedtechnology could increas e the am o unt o f co al th a t can be extra cted pro fit
a b't

y. Coal "i s c e rt ain to r em ain an Germ an y ,··\ · • 228 . 4 

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# I io 3 I enorm o us l y competitive energy re s our ce b y virtually an y conceiva b l e m ea s ure ,» s a y s Ki m t.ink , spok esw omah for Arch C oal In c. , w hi c h produ ced a b o u t 12% of th e n a ti o n 's co al l ast y ear.

The U.S. is n 't the onl y nati on emp loying improve d drilling data and computer m od eling t o re ll s - sess its s u p plie s. G ermany cut i ts p ro ven h ard
- c o al re s erv e esti
ma tes by more than 99% in 2 . 0 04 as i t explo r e d reduci ng mining sub
s idies , whi c h w ould m ake c o al m ore expe ns ive to extra ct. Ove r - all , asses sme n ts of to tal w orld r e serve s dropped by half from , 1980 t o 2005, acc ording to a s tudy 

### l?Y.En- e r gy Watch G r o up , an intlependent group based in German y . Th e U. S . Geol o gical Survey, th e Dep artme nt o f the Int erio r's sci
e n c e agency, : attempte d to get 

### a clea r e r ' pictur e of th e nation 's c o al supp liesb eginning in 2004 . r ts full st

udy of the Powd erRiver Basin in Wyo m ing a n d Mon tan a 

### will b e c om ple t e d n ext year . Th e age n cy b e g an wi t h th e Powd er River' s ri c h Gill e tte c o al 

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# .. fi e ld , an 8 0
- mile-lon g str i p in northe as tern Wyoming th at con tains the n atio n 's 10 top -p r od u c i ng min . e s . Abo ut o n e -third of all co al in the co un try is p r od u c e d there. So me 1 .2 million s hort t on s l eave the fie ld dai l y , a ri ve r of coal fill ing m ore than 75 trains ofl25 t o 150 cars e a ch .

For the G ill ette s tud y, U SG S e n gineer s , geo l og i s t s a nd econo mi s ts s p e n t thr ee ye ars an alyzi ng d a ta fr om 10,200 drill h ole s , the mos t com pr

elt

e nsive study e ver a t te mpt ed of the regio n . Th e t e a m concl u d e d there a r e 201 b illi o n

. short · to ns of c o a l in the G ill e tte

· fi e l d . Enviro nmental rule s a n d ph

ysical ch all e ng es p ut mu c h of

· that out of re a c h , leaving wh at th ey figure d were 77 b i llion s h o rt to n s of r ec o vera bl e coal_ Littl e i s p r ese ntl y worth min ing . Analyzing co al beds th at con tained 8 2 % of the G ille tte d epo s its, the 

## team determi n e d that with coal s elling for $ 10.50 a to n, th e pr evailing p rice two y ea rs ago, les s th an 6 % o fth e coal could be ex trac t e d p rofi t ab l y en ough to leav e mining co mpanies an 8 % rateofre- After many d eca ri es of mm mR. turn . s om e of th e co wl t ry's coa l fi e ld s If

P owde r Riv e r p rice s we re to are s h owing t h e 1 r

**a~<'**

**.** "W h a t' s le n hit $60 a to n in curr e n t d o lla r s . 

### as to min e is not 

### n s e a sv

**a~** w hat w .. m uch 

### a s 4 7% coul d b e e xt r ac te d . m i ne d eve n 10 o r 2 0 ye ar s n)ao," B

ut atthatpri c e , co al w ould 

### h ave a s ay s Ja nine Orf , s pok eswo m a n fm tough time c ompeting with o th e r Pat ri ot Co a l Co r p . 

### m S t L o w s. fuels and fe<: hnologle s . " Th e s eam s a r e ge tt m g tlm me1 By adding an e<: o nomi cc om po· a nd the r e a r e m ore lim es ton e in · n e n t , tl 1 e stud y bro k e grou n d . Jim t ru s i on s." L upp e n s , a n ind u s try ve t eran wh o E v en atlh e Gillette fi e l d . when• is n ow c h ief o f the coa l
- asse ss- s urf ace m i n i ng s t art e d 0 1 ounrl m

e n

tp r ojectforU SGS.say s poli cy 19 2>1 a n d pro du c t • o n s till i s b u nv· mak e r s often c onfu se t h e t o t al an t . obsta cle s are e m e r )! m )! c oal r es o urc e - whi c h h e de · Coa l at I t $ CJi ll e tt e's c a s t (' rn s c r ib es 

### as th e " b l o o d , g u ts a n d e d )ae li Ps mo s tl y c lo s<' to thr 

### s m · f eatl 1 er s" n umber
- w i th coal · · e -

**a~eb**

**t** th e sea m s ge n e r al l y s lope s e rves , whic h he likens to the e di
- do wnward in ::1 we s t erl y direc ti o n . b l e m e a t . " They mi x up t h e fo r ci n g m i n e r s t o di g p • og rp sR

-word s , " h e s a ys . s ive l y d eeper to l'xtm c t i t. A t Arc h Th e finding s a re pe rcol a tin g Cool ' s Black Th u n d e r nu n c. fi ve> thro ug h th e coal and pow er i n d us - p i t s are

**~:** we s t w a rd an d w i ll tries . " US GS m ade a l e np forward i n ter sec t the m a i n Bur lingt o n with thi s s tu dy,' ' sa ys Vi c Svec, No rlh e m -S a n ta F e mil ro a d 

### hnc <l l spok es man for P ea b o d y E n e r gy s ome point . Arc h t11en will hav e 1 0 Re so urce s, the

**.S.'s** b igge s t co al mo ve heavv c qlllpm e nt 

### to t h (· co mp any . H e add s th a t w h en h is o t h e r s 1 de of t h e tra cks a n d d i lt :1 c om p a n y plug s i n p r ice s a s th e n e w p i t dow n

**~ev cral**  hundr e d U

S G

S s tud y di d, it rea ch e s s imilar f ee t , wlti ch i t s ays c ould cos t $ 1 00 conclusio ns . mil l ion or more . Modern es ti ma tes o f th e U. S. Coal's h1 1t b u ye r . th e p owe r m co al r esource began i n 190 7, wit h du s try, h a s j!. r own

**in treas**  **n~;lv** field g eol o gi sts re po 1 't i ng o n o ut - ne rvo u s about sc cun n g r e liabl e croppin gs - pl aees w h e r e co al s u ppli e r s f or powe r plams 1 h a t 

## or - Sh tck o ut of t h e g r o un d
- a n d le n h ave 

### a us e flt l l if e o f SO o r 6 0 mine s. Bas e d on consumption a l yenrs . Pian tsfi n e- tun e t hm r e qlllp the time , the US G S conclu ded m ent to b urn the co al t h ey exp ect there w e r e thre e trill io n t o ns o f tore c e i v eanrl to rcmove itsp a rli c· coal , enoug h tolast S,OOO yea r s.By uJa r pollutam s f rom th e wa ste the 1950s, arm e d wi th m o r e min - s tre run .T h at m akc s i tpmbl e mall c ing data, th e U SGS and the now - d e - to swi t c h s uppli e rs. fun ct U . S . Bur ea u of M i n es re- Las t fa ll , produ c lio n prob l e m s du c ed th e ir e stimat eofthe total re- ca us e d som e co a l produ c e rs lnt h e s o u rce to 500 billi o n t ons. Eas tto s t ntggl e t ofulfill co nt rac t s. Th e federal method f o r c al c u- Utility executive s s a y the de l avs lati n g U . S . c oa l res e r v es h a s were a w ake· up c a ll . chang e d li ttl e in 35 ye ars. Ln 1 9 7 4 , A m e ri ca n E l ectr i c f' o we r h as th e Bur ea u of Mine s es t a bl is h ed 

### a 9 , 1 00 r ail r oa d cR r s ru1d 2. 4 80 ri ver b as eline re se rve le vel . c on s ide r ed barge s dedi ca ted t o kee p m g il 

### s g oo d f o r it s e r a . E a ch ye ar s ince, power plan t s ft tmi s h ed wit h c o n i. th e g ove rnm e n t - currentl y , the I n Ma y, AEP. t oge th er w i ll! a p ; u 1
- DOE 's E n ergy inf orm alio nAdmin
- n er. C l eco Co rp _, bo u ght o

**t· o~l**  i s trat i o n - ha s s ubtra c te d eac h min e in L o ui s in n a a ft e 1 n roa l c oal r egio n's p roductio n and mine source falt e r e d U 1n t h a d be en f ur· wa s t e t o get a n e w est imate of ni s lu ng fu e l ro a power pl a n t rh P\' what's l eft in the groun d . ow n together . I n 2 007 , th e E lA s ai d the U. S . B uying th e min e

**ri~: ht** 
**.** says h ad a "de m onstrated r e s erve AEP 's M r . L

ig ht, w as th e

**c~ l**  wny bas e" of n ear l y 500 billi o n to ns o f Lo und e r s t11 n d
- and ron t ro l c oal . l fregarded2 67 milli o n t ons how much c oa l t h e power rom· o f that as "ec ono micall y re cove r - p an v c ould exp ec t 1 0

**e~c ve.**  "WP able," e nough for 240 ye ars . ' do n 'tknow wh at t h e f ut u re ho ld'·" EvenMr . ' Warh oli c, th e ElA 

### an a - h e s aid . l ys t , says h e's skeptical about th e res ults . "It's kind o f crazy " to po stulat e h o w l o ng U . S. r e serv e s will last, h e sa y s. " It c ould be llOyears pr 225 years or so m e thing co m · pl e t e l y differen t , J t all d e p en d s on v our

**li.Ss nmnt**  **~"** 

## WSJ.com ONLIN E TO DAY : See photos f ro m the P owder R i v er B as in . at W <; l f*n m l lt C.

# 4D )) PERSPECTIVE SUNDAY , J

UN E. lS . 

### 2014 • **DENV ~POST.COM**  

### • THE DENVER POST 

# Geology's war on coal By 

### Leslie Glustrom and Zane Se lvans 

## Guest Commentary 

# A s the Environmental Protection Agen

cy moves ahead with limits on carbon pollution from the nation's coal plants, you'll hear a lot ofindustry outrage about Obama's "war on coal." Don't believe 

## it

The truth is, the U.S. coal industry is 

### already in dire straits, including here 

### in Coloradoand it is 

### due primarily to geology, not politics.

Coal is undeniably a non-renewable substance. We have been mining the easily accessible deposits for the last 150 years, and the planet isn't making any more on a time scale that matters to humans.

As a result, the U.S. coal industry is in seri
ous financial distress

- righ t nowmonths, and likely years, before any EPA carbon regulations actually go into effect.

Even if the EPA were to be eliminated tomor r ow (not something we advocat e), the U.S. coal industry would still l ik ely be largely winding down in the next decade or so.

As 

### the remaining coal has become more difficult and expensive to mine, coal prices to electric utilities have increased significantly over the last decade, but these price increases have no t been enough to keep coal company profit margins healthy.

In Colorado, the cost ofdelivered coal bas almost doubled in the l ast d ecade, going from an average of 97

### cents per million BTU in 2004 to over $L90 per million BTU in 2013.

During the same 2004-2013 period, Colorado coal production bas dropped about 40 percent from a peak of almost 40 m il lio n tons in 2004 to fewer than 

### 24 million tons in 2013-

The botto m lfue is that Colorado coal is be

### coming increasingly expensive to mine, and it is largely pricing itselfout ofthe market.

As 

### Bill Koch said recently about the closing of Oxbow's Elk Creek mi n e near Paonia, "The coal business in the United States has kind ofdied, so we are out ofit now." It 

### is possible that the Elk Creek mine will reopen, but it isn't looking like it will happen anytime soon.

A recent Market Watch story noted that of the 13 coal company bonds rated by Moody's, all13 we r e below investment grade
. Here are three facts about the U.S . coal industry:

Fact N o .1: The top three U.S. coal companies are currently running in the red and reporti ng l arge losses: For 2013, the No . 1 

### U.S. coal producer, Peabody, reported a loss from continuing operations of s286 million, No . 2 U.S. coal producer Arch Coal reported a loss of s641 million. and No.3 U.S . coal producer, Alpha Natural Resources, reported over Sl 

### billion in losses
.

Fact N o . 2 : 

### Coal company stock prices h ave plummeted in recent years, and the top three U.S. coal companies had already lost 8o percent to 97 percent of their stock value compared to their highs in 2008 -before the EPA announced regulations on carbon pollu

tion from existing coal plants .

Fact No . 3: U.S. coal production is at its lowest in 20 years. It 

### is entirely possibJe the U.S. is past its peak coal production

## Wi*h 1.171 billion tons of coal in 2008. In 2013 . U.S . producti on fell below 1 

### billion tons for the first time since 1 993. Moreover, the largest U.S. coal mines are e xpected to begin playing out in the next decade or two.

The good news is that the U.S . is 

### blessed with abundant , low-carbon, low
-risk renewable resour c es and the costs of harvesting these wind , solar and other renewable resources are falling dramatically. Our coun try's energy future is bright- bur 

### if and only 

### if we look to the future and not the past to keep us strong. 

## Leslie Glustrom is 

## a long-time coal industry watcher. Zane Selvans is director of 

## research and 

## policy at Clean 

## En ergy Action.

# Renewable E nergy : Not Only Cleaner-But More Cost Effective By Les lie Glustrom, Member CRES Policy Committee 303-245-8637 

### lg!ustrom@maal.com 

## CRES members have waited severa l decades for thi s good news and there shou ld be much r ejo i cing-and ed u ca

ting! The 

## time h as finally begun to arrive w

h

en renewable energy is not o nl y cleaner and m ore res ili e nt - it i s al so more cost effective under many reasonab l e sets of ass umptions . In Co lorad o, both analyses by Xcel as we ll as by the 

## C i ty of Boulder (as part of i ts municipal iza ti o n process) have confrrmed w h

at many have l ong fe ltinvesting in renewab l e en ergy n ow wi ll save custome rs money ove r th e long run . Analyses by 

### Xcel Confirm that Wind a nd Solar Yield Significant Cost Sav in gs Over Time 

## Here is a graph of what Xce l 's mo s t recent an . al ys is of wind and solar bi ds show s: 1

**Flt~MW** 12 • Annwl Coot flootlneo ol 410 liNt Wlncl ond 1'10 liNt PY

1 F1gure 22. Publtc Servic:e Company of Col orado 2013 All Source Sohcitat10n, 120 Day Report, 20 11 EIOCinc Resouoe Plan , Publtc Vers1011. September 9. 2013 (Dod<et II A-869E), page 70 I 

## As the title , the graph and the 

## description of Figure 22 from Xcel ' s 2013 analy sis affii'ITI---addi n g 450 MW of wind and 170 MW of so l ar to Xcel's Co lorado system will save customers money over the life of the projects-with expected annual sav in gs of approximately $40 million in 2027 with further annual savings in the 2030s-and likely beyond. F

r om 2009 through 20 1 2, Xcel's analyses were s howing that wind projects could save custom ers money d epending on the assumptions 

## used and, with the 20 13 analys is s hown above , u ti li ty scale so l ar also gained this sta tu s. Here is bow Xcel described the long- awaited cross-over point when solar bid s received in 20 13 cou l d provide cleane r energy and also save utili ty customers money. In

fact, the bidpricing received represents a watershed event for Co lorado. For th e first time, the Co mpan y received bids for utility-scale solar P V resources that are cos t-effe ctive head to head with natural-gasfired generation under base-gas price forecasts and !J!Lcarbon emission cost adders. 

## (Xcel 1 2

0 Da y Report. 20 ll Resource Plan , Docket 11A8 69E, pag e 4 . E mphas is in 

## th e origi nal.) Xce l 's own analysis confirmed that uti l ity
- sca l e solar was more costeffective than natural gas--even when there was n o "carbo n adder" and none of the external co sts of fossil fue l use (e.g. climate change, water use , air pollution, fracking impacts etc.) were includ ed. Wow-that is great news!! As so lar in stal l at i

on costs continue to fal l and fossil fuel costs continue to rise , the "cr o ss-over" point for distributed solar on rooftops and ground mount sys tem s being lower cost than gri d power is either very c l ose or we are already there , depending on how the analysis is done. Analyses by 

### the C i ty o f Boulder Co nfirm that C lea ner Energy Can Also Save Money 

## As part of the City of Boulder ' s analysis of its muni cipal i zation options, t h

e C i ty and its cons ul tants perform ed hundred s of detailed modeling runs usi ng a h ost of variables in a " probabilistic" modeli n g process that included testing high an d low value s ofkey variabl es in a variety of combinations. A full description of th e process and the resul ts can be 

## found in Bou l der City Council 2

# . . .

m

e m o s fro m Febru ary 26 , 20 13 and Jul y 23 , 20 13 avai l ab l e fro m t h

e Cit y of Bould er's we bs it e or from the a uthor of thi s art i cle . In 

### ge ner a l , th e Ci ty o f Bould e r found th at in stead o f be ing s ati s fi ed w ith 300/o re n e wabl e en er gy (and about 700 /o f o s s il fu e l gen er ated e l ect ri c i ty) as i s th e ex pec t ed case with

**Xce ~**  

### the re is e very reaso n to beli eve th at ren ewa ble en e r

gy co ul d becom e the dominant so urce of e l ec tri ci ty for Bould e r- and b y e x t e ns ion likel y all Front Ran ge co mmunitie s bein g served by Xcel
- while 

### redu ci ng costs . B e low is a graph of th e in crease in ren ew a b l

e ener gy fo r tw o of the many scen ario s that 

### we r e mod e l

ed by the C i ty of Boul de r. 2

Ql 

# 1i IV 

## ......

**~ ~**  Ql 

### 0 

# c N Ql



# .~ oc: Ql 

## u QO · - IV ._ 

# ... 't c Ql 

# cu - u L&.l 

# .. Cll 

### 0.. 

# % Renewable Electricity- - Xcel v Boulder Modeling 60 

# so 40 

## 30 20 1 0

0 Xcel Boulder Boulder Scenario I Scenario II
Rev ie wing th e d e tail ed finan c ial anal ys is do n e for Bou l der , in creasi ng r e liance o n ren ewab l e en e r

gy for e l ectri ci ty int o the 40- 60% ran g e i s expected to sa

v e Boulder approxim atel y $2 00
- $400 milli on in e l ec

tri c it y costs ove r th e 2 017 -20 37 time period- with mo r e sav ing s ex pect ed afte r th at. Th is re s ult i s in

' Res u l ts f

or Boul der taken from p age 20, Febru ary 26. 20 13 Bou l der C ity Co unal S t aff pack etavRJi ab le f rom the C a ty of Bou lder • s webs a te or the author The % renew a bl• l!llelliY f o r Xcel ass umes th at the wa nd and ao l ar pro

Jects oe l ec:t

ed an 2 01 3 as p art of the 20 1 1 Reso uroe Pl an (Doclc.et l lA·869E) move f orward 

### 3 

### line with Xc e l's mode ling re s u lts shown ab ove and th e in tuitive se nse th at in

ve s ti ng i n re n e wab l e energy now will sav e a lot o f mo n e y i n the future . A

s mode l ers lik e to point o u t, " All m ode ls are wro ng ; some model s are inf

orma t ive. " Ne ithe r Xce l nor Bo ul de r 's model s are l ike l y to be preci se l y correct, but th ey both indi cate th a t r e n

ewab l e energy can n ot o nl y be c l eaner - it can also save uti lity custom ers m o n

ey. In th e case of the Ci ty of Bou l d

e r 's mode ling, th e exact resu lts that wi ll be achi eved i f Bould er su cceeds in its muni cipa l iza ti on elTort w ill not be known fo r man y years as final d eci s ions will d epe n d on a vari ety of fman c ial and ope rationa l i ss ues , b ut after hundr eds of ex tre m e l

y deta il ed m ode l i ng r uns, the r e is e v ery re ason t o be li eve that we are en ter

in g a ti me wh en Co l oradan ' s e l

ec tri ci ty can n ot o nl y be mu c h c l eane r -but lower co st. CRES m embers can rejo i ce . In 

### Co l orado an d e l sew h e re , there is mo unt ing ev ide n ce th at we are lin a ll y ente ri ng th e era wh en re n ewabl e e l ectri c i t y is not onl y c l e an er - it w ill a lso lower ou r ener gy co s ts . O n ward t o the po s t- f oss i l fue l e r

a!


### #

4