Input and Summary

User Inputs:

Lifetime 9 years

Discounting future values:

Discount Rate 7.0%

Year to discount to 2007

Baseline Standby: 2.0 Watts

Reduced Standby: 2.0 Watts

Hour per year Active: 72 hours

Market Impact

Economic Growth

Microwave Oven

Design EF Cooking 

UEC

Standby 

UEC Total UEC Installed Price

kWh kWh kWh $

0 Baseline 55.7% 131 17.4 148 $189

1 0 + More Efficient Power Supply 58.6% 125 17.4 142 $203

2 1 + More Efficient Fan 58.8% 124 17.4 141 $217

3 2 +More Efficient Magnetron59.7% 122 17.4 140 $240

4 3 + Reflective Surfaces 60.2% 121 17.4 139 $269

Base Case Efficiency Trend Standards Case Efficiency Trend

Microwave Oven

Design # 0 1 2 3 4 Total Design #

2005 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2005

2006 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2006

2007 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2007

2008 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2008

2009 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2009

2010 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2010

2011 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2011

2012 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2012

2013 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2013

2014 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2014

2015 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2015

2016 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2016

2017 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2017

2018 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2018

2019 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2019

2020 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2020

2021 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2021

2022 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2022

2023 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2023

2024 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2024

2025 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% 2025

Base Case Weighted Average UEC and Price Standards Case Weighted Average 

PP elasticity - 1%

Reference

Set Set BaBase se CaCase se / S/ Statanda ndardrds s CaCasese
Energy

Factor UEC Price

kWh/yr kWh/yr$

2005 0.57 2005 145 2005 $206 2005

2006 0.57 2006 145 2006 $206 2006

2007 0.57 2007 145 2007 $206 2007

2008 0.57 2008 145 2008 $206 2008

2009 0.57 2009 145 2009 $206 2009

2010 0.57 2010 145 2010 $206 2010

2011 0.57 2011 145 2011 $206 2011

2012 0.57 2012 145 2012 $206 2012

2013 0.57 2013 145 2013 $206 2013

2014 0.57 2014 145 2014 $206 2014

2015 0.57 2015 145 2015 $206 2015

2016 0.57 2016 145 2016 $206 2016

2017 0.57 2017 145 2017 $206 2017

2018 0.57 2018 145 2018 $206 2018

2019 0.57 2019 145 2019 $206 2019

2020 0.57 2020 145 2020 $206 2020

2021 0.57 2021 145 2021 $206 2021

2022 0.57 2022 145 2022 $206 2022

2023 0.57 2023 145 2023 $206 2023

2024 0.57 2024 145 2024 $206 2024

2025 0.57 2025 145 2025 $206 2025
National Impact Summary - Microwave Ovens

Cumulative 2010 to 2055

Energy Saving 0.11 quad

Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost 2.68 billion $

Discounted Oper. Cost Saving 0.38 billion $

NPV -2.30 billion $

Standards Case Efficiency Trend

Microwave Oven

0 1 2 3 4 Total

60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100%

60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100%

60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100%

60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100%

60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100%

60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100%

60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

0% 0% 80% 10% 10% 100%

Standards Case Weighted Average UEC and Price
Energy

Factor UEC Price

kWh/yr kWh/yr$

0.57 2005 145 2005 $206

0.57 2006 145 2006 $206

0.57 2007 145 2007 $206

0.57 2008 145 2008 $206

0.57 2009 145 2009 $206

0.57 2010 145 2010 $206

0.57 2011 145 2011 $206

0.59 2012 141 2012 $224

0.59 2013 141 2013 $224

0.59 2014 141 2014 $224

0.59 2015 141 2015 $224

0.59 2016 141 2016 $224

0.59 2017 141 2017 $224

0.59 2018 141 2018 $224

0.59 2019 141 2019 $224

0.59 2020 141 2020 $224

0.59 2021 141 2021 $224

0.59 2022 141 2022 $224

0.59 2023 141 2023 $224

0.59 2024 141 2024 $224

0.59 2025 141 2025 $224



Historical Shipment

Historical Shipment of Microwave Ovens

millions

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977 Assumptions:

1978 Total Microwave Oven Market Share for New homes in 2001 74.1%

1979 % of Early Replacement 2.0%

1980 Growth in New Housing saturation 0.0%

1981 7.600

1982 7.872

1983 8.145

1984 8.417

1985 8.689

1986 8.961

1987 9.234

1988 9.506

1989 9.778

1990 7.693

1991 6.623

1992 7.190

1993 7.240

1994 8.574

1995 8.162

1996 8.771

1997 8.883

1998 10.365

1999 11.422

2000 12.644

2001 13.446

2002 13.311

2003 14.274

2004 15.526

2005 13.862










Base Case

Historical and Forecasted Shipments of Dishwashers

Base Case - Standard Dishwasher

Market Segments Annual Shipments

Year New 

Shipment Total Stock Retiring Units

% Early

Repl.

Saturation in 

New Houses

Repl. 

Units

New 

Units

Total 

Shipment

pre-2010 million million million million million

post-2010

1972 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

1973 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

1974 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

1975 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

1976 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

1977 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

1978 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

1979 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

1980 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

1981 7.600 7.600 0.000 0.000

1982 7.872 15.472 0.000 25.6% 0.000

1983 8.145 23.617 0.000 0.000

1984 8.417 32.034 0.000 0.000

1985 8.689 40.723 0.000 0.000

1986 8.961 49.684 0.000 0.000

1987 9.234 58.917 0.000 0.000

1988 9.506 68.205 0.218 0.218

1989 9.778 76.106 1.876 1.876

1990 7.693 78.589 5.211 95.7% 5.211 1.322 6.532

1991 6.623 77.353 7.859 95.7% 7.859 1.134 8.993

1992 7.190 76.412 8.131 95.7% 8.131 1.349 9.480

1993 7.240 75.249 8.403 95.7% 8.403 1.476 9.879

1994 8.574 75.147 8.675 95.7% 8.675 1.686 10.361

1995 8.162 74.361 8.948 95.7% 8.948 1.622 10.569

1996 8.771 73.913 9.220 95.7% 9.220 1.740 10.960

1997 8.883 73.371 9.425 92.4% 9.425 1.380 10.804

1998 10.365 74.590 9.146 92.4% 9.146 1.419 10.565

1999 11.422 77.889 8.122 0.0% 92.4% 8.122 1.512 9.635

2000 12.644 83.423 7.111 0.0% 92.4% 7.111 1.566 8.677

2001 13.446 89.812 7.057 0.0% 97.4% 7.057 1.679 8.736

2002 13.311 95.583 7.540 0.0% 97.4% 7.540 1.703 9.243

2003 14.274 101.799 8.058 0.0% 97.4% 8.058 1.742 9.800

2004 15.526 108.877 8.449 0.0% 97.4% 8.449 1.754 10.203

2005 13.862 111.918 10.821 2.0% 97.4% 10.821 2.080 12.901

2006 12.833 113.828 10.923 2.0% 97.4% 10.923 1.910 12.833

2007 13.402 115.710 11.519 2.0% 97.4% 11.519 1.883 13.402

2008 14.238 117.601 12.348 2.0% 97.4% 12.348 1.891 14.238

2009 14.830 119.452 12.979 2.0% 97.4% 12.979 1.851 14.830

2010 15.237 121.297 13.392 2.0% 97.4% 13.392 1.845 15.237

2011 15.528 123.125 13.701 2.0% 97.4% 13.701 1.828 15.528

2012 16.031 124.902 14.253 2.0% 97.4% 14.253 1.777 16.031

2013 16.398 126.658 14.641 2.0% 97.4% 14.641 1.756 16.398

2014 15.945 128.418 14.185 2.0% 97.4% 14.185 1.760 15.945

2015 15.307 130.200 13.526 2.0% 97.4% 13.526 1.782 15.307

2016 15.463 131.978 13.684 2.0% 97.4% 13.684 1.778 15.463

2017 16.072 133.748 14.302 2.0% 97.4% 14.302 1.770 16.072

2018 16.620 135.508 14.860 2.0% 97.4% 14.860 1.760 16.620

2019 16.997 137.232 15.272 2.0% 97.4% 15.272 1.724 16.997
2020 17.309 138.913 15.628 2.0% 97.4% 15.628 1.680 17.309

2021 17.607 140.542 15.978 2.0% 97.4% 15.978 1.629 17.607

2022 17.758 142.137 16.162 2.0% 97.4% 16.162 1.595 17.758

2023 17.556 143.703 15.991 2.0% 97.4% 15.991 1.566 17.556

2024 17.268 145.265 15.706 2.0% 97.4% 15.706 1.562 17.268

2025 17.338 146.843 15.759 2.0% 97.4% 15.759 1.579 17.338

2026 17.763 148.432 16.174 2.0% 97.4% 16.174 1.589 17.763

2027 18.223 150.006 16.649 2.0% 97.4% 16.649 1.574 18.223

2028 18.570 151.544 17.032 2.0% 97.4% 17.032 1.538 18.570

2029 18.866 153.074 17.337 2.0% 97.4% 17.337 1.529 18.866

2030 19.114 154.609 17.578 2.0% 97.4% 17.578 1.535 19.114

2031 19.214 156.136 17.687 2.0% 97.4% 17.687 1.527 19.214

2032 19.137 157.654 17.619 2.0% 97.4% 17.619 1.518 19.137

2033 19.018 159.164 17.508 2.0% 97.4% 17.508 1.510 19.018

2034 19.081 160.666 17.580 2.0% 97.4% 17.580 1.502 19.081

2035 19.376 162.159 17.883 2.0% 97.4% 17.883 1.493 19.376

20360 147.134

20370 130.886

20380 113.786

20390 95.920

20400 77.398

20410 58.457

20420 39.376

20430 20.799

20440 6.282

20450 0.000

20460 0.000

20470 0.000

20480 0.000

20490 0.000

20500 0.000

20510 0.000

20520 0.000

20530 0.000

20520 0.000

20530 0.000

20540 0.000

20550 0.000

UEC Total Energy (site) Equipment Cost Oper Cost

Microwave 

Saturation Efficiency Elec Elec per Unit Total Fuel

cycles/kWh kWh/yr quad $ billion $ billion $

145.2

145.2

145.2

145.2

91.8% 145.2

92.2% 145.2

92.5% 145.2

92.9% 145.2

93.2% 145.2

93.5% 145.2

93.9% 145.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Millions

Shipment - Historical and Projected

Historical Shipments

modelled Shipments

93.9% 145.2

94.2% 145.2

94.6% 145.2

94.9% 145.2

95.3% 145.2

95.6% 145.2

96.0% 145.2

96.3% 145.2

96.7% 145.2

97.0% 145.2

97.4% 0.57 145.2 0.0564 $206 2.646 1.708

97.7% 0.57 145.2 0.0573 $206 2.763 1.629

98.0% 0.57 145.2 0.0583 $206 2.936 1.594

98.4% 0.57 145.2 0.0592 $206 3.057 1.603

98.7% 0.57 145.2 0.0601 $206 3.141 1.618

99.0% 0.57 145.2 0.0610 $206 3.202 1.627

99.3% 0.57 145.2 0.0619 $206 3.305 1.642

99.5% 0.57 145.2 0.0627 $206 3.381 1.678

99.8% 0.57 145.2 0.0636 $206 3.287 1.693

100.1% 0.57 145.2 0.0645 $206 3.156 1.699

100.3% 0.57 145.2 0.0654 $206 3.188 1.720

100.6% 0.57 145.2 0.0663 $206 3.314 1.745

100.8% 0.57 145.2 0.0671 $206 3.427 1.775

101.0% 0.57 145.2 0.0680 $206 3.504 1.810
101.3% 0.57 145.2 0.0688 $206 3.569 1.828

101.5% 0.57 145.2 0.0696 $206 3.630 1.858

101.7% 0.57 145.2 0.0704 $206 3.661 1.880

101.9% 0.57 145.2 0.0712 $206 3.620 1.896

102.1% 0.57 145.2 0.0720 $206 3.560 1.924

102.3% 0.57 145.2 0.0727 $206 3.575 1.957

102.5% 0.57 145.2 0.0735 $206 3.662 1.978

102.7% 0.57 145.2 0.0743 $206 3.757 2.003

102.9% 0.57 145.2 0.0751 $206 3.829 2.020

103.0% 0.57 145.2 0.0758 $206 3.890 2.044

103.2% 0.57 145.2 0.0766 $206 3.941 2.082

103.3% 0.57 145.2 0.0773 $206 3.961 2.108

103.5% 0.57 145.2 0.0781 $206 3.946 2.133

103.6% 0.57 145.2 0.0788 $206 3.921 2.159

103.6% 0.57 145.2 0.0796 $206 3.934 2.184

103.7% 0.57 145.2 0.0803 $206 3.995 2.210

0.57 145.2 0.0729 2.009

0.57 145.2 0.0648 1.792

0.57 145.2 0.0564 1.561

0.57 145.2 0.0475 1.319

0.57 145.2 0.0383 1.067

0.57 145.2 0.0290 0.808

0.57 145.2 0.0195 0.545

0.57 145.2 0.0103 0.289

0.57 145.2 0.0031 0.087

0.57 145.2 0.0000 0.000

0.57 145.2 0.0000 0.000

0.57 145.2 0.0000 0.000

0.57 145.2 0.0000 0.000

0.57 145.2 0.0000 0.000

0.57 145.2 0.0000 0.000

0.57 145.2 0.0000 0.000

0.57 145.2 0.0000 0.000

0.57 145.2 0.0000 0.000

0.57 145.2 0.0000 0.000

0.57 145.2 0.0000 0.000

0.57 145.2 0.0000 0.000

0.57 145.2 0.0000 0.000




Standards Case

Historical and Forecasted Shipments of Dishwashers

Standards Case - Standard Dishwasher

Market Segments Annual Shipments

Year New 

Shipment Total Stock Retiring Units

% Early

Repl.

Saturation in 

New Houses MS Impact Repl. Units

New 

Units

pre-2010 million million % million million

post-2010

1972 0.000

1973 0.000

1974 0.000

1975 0.000

1976 0.000

1977 0.000

1978 0.000

1979 0.000

1980 0.000 0.000

1981 7.600 7.600

1982 7.872 15.472

1983 8.145 23.617

1984 8.417 32.034

1985 8.689 40.723

1986 8.961 49.684 0.000

1987 9.234 58.917 0.000

1988 9.506 68.205 0.218

1989 9.778 76.106 1.876

1990 7.693 78.589 5.211 95.7% 1.322

1991 6.623 77.353 7.859 95.7% 1.134

1992 7.190 76.412 8.131 95.7% 1.349

1993 7.240 75.249 8.403 95.7% 1.476

1994 8.574 75.147 8.675 95.7% 1.686

1995 8.162 74.361 8.948 95.7% 1.622

1996 8.771 73.913 9.220 95.7% 1.740

1997 8.883 73.371 9.425 92.4% 1.380

1998 10.365 74.590 9.146 92.4% 1.419

1999 11.422 77.889 8.122 0.0% 92.4% 1.512

2000 12.644 83.423 7.111 0.0% 92.4% 1.566

2001 13.446 89.812 7.057 0.0% 97.4% 1.679

2002 13.311 95.583 7.540 0.0% 97.4% 1.703

2003 14.274 101.799 8.058 0.0% 97.4% 1.742

2004 15.526 108.877 8.449 0.0% 97.4% 1.754

2005 13.862 111.918 10.821 2.0% 97.4% 0.0% 10.821 2.080

2006 12.833 113.828 10.923 2.0% 97.4% 0.0% 10.923 1.910

2007 13.402 115.710 11.519 2.0% 97.4% 0.0% 11.519 1.883

2008 14.238 117.601 12.348 2.0% 97.4% 0.0% 12.348 1.891

2009 14.830 119.452 12.979 2.0% 97.4% 0.0% 12.979 1.851

2010 15.237 121.297 13.392 2.0% 97.4% 0.0% 13.392 1.845

2011 15.528 123.125 13.701 2.0% 97.4% 0.0% 13.701 1.828

2012 15.889 124.760 14.253 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 14.127 1.761

2013 16.250 126.372 14.638 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 14.509 1.741

2014 15.799 127.990 14.180 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 14.055 1.744

2015 15.166 129.637 13.519 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 13.400 1.766

2016 15.319 131.279 13.677 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 13.556 1.763

2017 15.920 132.907 14.292 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 14.166 1.754

2018 16.461 134.520 14.848 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 14.717 1.744

2019 16.829 136.094 15.254 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 15.120 1.709
2020 17.108 137.622 15.580 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 15.442 1.665

2021 17.347 139.097 15.872 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 15.732 1.615

2022 17.455 140.537 16.015 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 15.874 1.581

2023 17.253 141.948 15.841 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 15.701 1.552

2024 16.966 143.359 15.556 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 15.418 1.548

2025 17.032 144.786 15.605 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 15.467 1.565

2026 17.446 146.219 16.012 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 15.871 1.575

2027 17.892 147.634 16.478 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 16.332 1.560

2028 18.220 149.009 16.844 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 16.696 1.524

2029 18.484 150.374 17.119 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 16.968 1.516

2030 18.687 151.743 17.318 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 17.165 1.522

2031 18.753 153.102 17.393 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 17.239 1.513

2032 18.663 154.454 17.311 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 17.158 1.505

2033 18.541 155.799 17.196 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 17.044 1.497

2034 18.598 157.135 17.262 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 17.110 1.488

2035 18.879 158.460 17.554 2.0% 96.5% -0.9% 17.399 1.480

20360 143.704

20370 127.762

20380 111.009

20390 93.537

20400 75.452

20410 56.977

20420 38.374

20430 20.268

20440 6.121

20450 0.000

20460 0.000

20470 0.000

20480 0.000

20490 0.000

20500 0.000

20510 0.000

20520 0.000

20530 0.000

20520 0.000

20530 0.000

20540 0.000

20550 0.000

UEC Total Energy (site) Incr. Equip. Cost Oper Cost

Total 

Shipment

Microwave 

Saturation Efficiency Elec Shipment Impact Elec per Unit Total Fuel

million cycles/kWh kWh/yr million quad $ billion $ billion $

145.2 0.000

145.2 0.000

145.2 0.000

145.2 0.000

1.322 91.8% 145.2 0.000

1.134 92.2% 145.2 0.000

1.349 92.5% 145.2 0.000

1.476 92.9% 145.2 0.000

1.686 93.2% 145.2 0.000

1.622 93.5% 145.2 0.000

1.740 93.9% 145.2 0.000

1.380 94.2% 145.2 0.000

1.419 94.6% 145.2 0.000

1.512 94.9% 145.2 0.000

1.566 95.3% 145.2 0.000

1.679 95.6% 145.2 0.000

1.703 96.0% 145.2 0.000

1.742 96.3% 145.2 0.000

1.754 96.7% 145.2 0.000

12.901 97.0% 145.2 0.000

12.833 97.4% 0.57 145.2 0.000 0.0564 $0 0.000 113.109

13.402 97.7% 0.57 145.2 0.000 0.0573 $0 0.000 115.037

14.238 98.0% 0.57 145.2 0.000 0.0583 $0 0.000 116.974

14.830 98.4% 0.57 145.2 0.000 0.0592 $0 0.000 118.875

15.237 98.7% 0.57 145.2 0.000 0.0601 $0 0.000 120.771

15.528 99.0% 0.57 145.2 0.000 0.0610 $0 0.000 122.651

15.889 99.1% 0.59 141.0 0.142 0.0616 $18 0.289 123.886

16.250 99.3% 0.59 141.0 0.148 0.0621 $18 0.296 125.087

15.799 99.5% 0.59 141.0 0.146 0.0627 $18 0.288 126.310

15.166 99.6% 0.59 141.0 0.142 0.0633 $18 0.276 127.580

15.319 99.8% 0.59 141.0 0.144 0.0639 $18 0.279 128.856

15.920 99.9% 0.59 141.0 0.151 0.0645 $18 0.290 130.116

16.461 100.1% 0.59 141.0 0.158 0.0651 $18 0.300 131.360

16.829 100.2% 0.59 141.0 0.168 0.0657 $18 0.307 132.580
17.108 100.3% 0.59 141.0 0.201 0.0663 $18 0.312 133.847

17.347 100.4% 0.59 141.0 0.260 0.0669 $18 0.316 135.233

17.455 100.5% 0.59 141.0 0.303 0.0676 $18 0.318 136.704

17.253 100.7% 0.59 141.0 0.303 0.0683 $18 0.314 138.145

16.966 100.8% 0.59 141.0 0.302 0.0690 $18 0.309 139.587

17.032 100.9% 0.59 141.0 0.306 0.0697 $18 0.310 141.046

17.446 101.0% 0.59 141.0 0.317 0.0703 $18 0.318 142.512

17.892 101.1% 0.59 141.0 0.331 0.0710 $18 0.326 143.962

18.220 101.1% 0.59 141.0 0.350 0.0717 $18 0.332 145.375

18.484 101.2% 0.59 141.0 0.383 0.0723 $18 0.337 146.779

18.687 101.3% 0.59 141.0 0.427 0.0730 $18 0.340 148.188

18.753 101.3% 0.59 141.0 0.461 0.0737 $18 0.342 149.589

18.663 101.4% 0.59 141.0 0.474 0.0743 $18 0.340 150.985

18.541 101.4% 0.59 141.0 0.477 0.0750 $18 0.338 152.374

18.598 101.4% 0.59 141.0 0.484 0.0756 $18 0.339 153.756

18.879 101.4% 0.59 141.0 0.497 0.0762 $18 0.344 155.129

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0691 140.753

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0615 125.200

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0534 108.836

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0450 91.750

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0363 74.047

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0274 55.943

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0185 37.697

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0098 19.920

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0029 6.019

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0000 0.000

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0000 0.000

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0000 0.000

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0000 0.000

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0000 0.000

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0000 0.000

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0000 0.000

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0000 0.000

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0000 0.000

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0000 0.000

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0000 0.000

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0000 0.000

0.59 141.0 0.000 0.0000 0.000

delta UEC Energy Saving Discounted Values

Elec Quad Saving Oper. Cost 

Saving

Discount 

Factor

Incr. Equip. 

Cost

Oper. Cost 

Saving

kWh/yr quad billion $ billion $ billion $

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00 0

5

10

15

20

25

Millions

Shipment -

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00 0.000 0.000 1.070 0.000 0.000

0.00 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000

0.00 0.000 0.000 0.935 0.000 0.000

0.00 0.000 0.000 0.873 0.000 0.000

0.00 0.000 0.000 0.816 0.000 0.000

0.00 0.000 0.000 0.763 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.001 0.006 0.713 0.206 0.004

4.19 0.001 0.012 0.666 0.197 0.008

4.19 0.002 0.018 0.623 0.179 0.011

4.19 0.002 0.024 0.582 0.161 0.014

4.19 0.002 0.029 0.544 0.152 0.016

4.19 0.003 0.035 0.508 0.147 0.018

4.19 0.003 0.041 0.475 0.142 0.019

4.19 0.004 0.047 0.444 0.136 0.021

0

1985 1990 1995 2000
4.19 0.004 0.051 0.415 0.129 0.021

4.19 0.004 0.053 0.388 0.123 0.021

4.19 0.004 0.054 0.362 0.115 0.019

4.19 0.004 0.054 0.339 0.106 0.018

4.19 0.004 0.055 0.317 0.098 0.017

4.19 0.004 0.056 0.296 0.092 0.016

4.19 0.004 0.056 0.277 0.088 0.016

4.19 0.004 0.057 0.258 0.084 0.015

4.19 0.004 0.057 0.242 0.080 0.014

4.19 0.004 0.058 0.226 0.076 0.013

4.19 0.004 0.059 0.211 0.072 0.012

4.19 0.005 0.060 0.197 0.067 0.012

4.19 0.005 0.060 0.184 0.063 0.011

4.19 0.005 0.061 0.172 0.058 0.010

4.19 0.005 0.062 0.161 0.055 0.010

4.19 0.005 0.062 0.150 0.052 0.009

4.19 0.004 0.057 0.141 0.000 0.008

4.19 0.004 0.050 0.131 0.000 0.007

4.19 0.003 0.044 0.123 0.000 0.005

4.19 0.003 0.037 0.115 0.000 0.004

4.19 0.002 0.030 0.107 0.000 0.003

4.19 0.002 0.023 0.100 0.000 0.002

4.19 0.001 0.015 0.094 0.000 0.001

4.19 0.001 0.008 0.088 0.000 0.001

4.19 0.000 0.002 0.082 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.000 0.000 0.076 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.000 0.000 0.071 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.000 0.000 0.067 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.000 0.000 0.062 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.000 0.000 0.058 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.000 0.000 0.055 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.000 0.000 0.051 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.000 0.000 0.048 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.000 0.000 0.044 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.000 0.000 0.048 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.000 0.000 0.044 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.000 0.000 0.042 0.000 0.000

4.19 0.000 0.000 0.039 0.000 0.000

- Historical and Projected

Base Case

Standards Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Base Case

Standards Case


Housing Projections

Projected Total Housing Stock (millions) Projected Housing Starts (millions)

Reference High Low Reference High Low

1990 93.99 93.99 93.99 1990 1.38 1.38 1.38

1991 94.87 94.87 94.87 1991 1.18 1.18 1.18

1992 95.75 95.75 95.75 1992 1.41 1.41 1.41

1993 96.63 96.63 96.63 1993 1.54 1.54 1.54

1994 97.88 97.88 97.88 1994 1.76 1.76 1.76

1995 99.06 99.06 99.06 1995 1.69 1.69 1.69

1996 100.10 100.10 100.10 1996 1.82 1.82 1.82

1997 101.31 101.31 101.31 1997 1.49 1.49 1.49

1998 102.61 102.61 102.61 1998 1.54 1.54 1.54

1999 103.83 103.83 103.83 1999 1.64 1.64 1.64

2000 105.01 105.01 105.01 2000 1.70 1.70 1.70

2001 106.27 106.27 106.27 2001 1.72 1.72 1.72

2002 107.35 107.35 107.35 2002 1.75 1.75 1.75

2003 108.53 108.53 108.53 2003 1.79 1.79 1.79

2004 109.73 109.73 109.73 2004 1.80 1.80 1.80

2005 115.36 115.36 115.36 2005 2.14 2.14 2.14

2006 116.90 116.90 116.90 2006 1.96 2.16 1.76

2007 118.42 118.42 118.42 2007 1.93 2.20 1.66

2008 119.94 119.94 119.94 2008 1.94 2.24 1.64

2009 121.44 121.44 121.44 2009 1.90 2.22 1.58

2010 122.93 122.93 122.93 2010 1.89 2.22 1.58

2011 124.41 124.41 124.41 2011 1.88 2.21 1.55

2012 125.83 125.83 125.83 2012 1.82 2.16 1.49

2013 127.25 127.25 127.25 2013 1.80 2.17 1.44

2014 128.67 128.67 128.67 2014 1.81 2.18 1.44

2015 130.11 130.11 130.11 2015 1.83 2.20 1.46

2016 131.56 131.56 131.56 2016 1.83 2.21 1.45

2017 133.00 133.00 133.00 2017 1.82 2.20 1.44

2018 134.43 134.43 134.43 2018 1.81 2.21 1.41

2019 135.83 135.83 135.83 2019 1.77 2.19 1.36

2020 137.19 137.19 137.19 2020 1.73 2.16 1.30

2021 138.50 138.50 138.50 2021 1.67 2.11 1.24

2022 139.78 139.78 139.78 2022 1.64 2.09 1.19

2023 141.03 141.03 141.03 2023 1.61 2.07 1.15

2024 142.28 142.28 142.28 2024 1.60 2.10 1.11

2025 143.55 143.55 143.55 2025 1.62 2.15 1.10

2026 144.83 144.83 144.83 2026 1.63 2.18 1.08

2027 146.10 146.10 146.10 2027 1.62 2.18 1.06

2028 147.34 147.34 147.34 2028 1.58 2.12 1.04

2029 148.57 148.57 148.57 2029 1.57 2.14 0.99

2030 149.81 149.81 149.81 2030 1.58 2.15 1.00

2031 151.09 151.09 151.09 2031 1.57 2.15 0.98

2032 152.39 152.39 152.39 2032 1.56 2.15 0.96

2033 153.70 153.70 153.70 2033 1.55 2.15 0.94

2034 155.01 155.01 155.01 2034 1.54 2.15 0.93

2035 156.34 156.34 156.34 2035 1.53 2.16 0.91

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2006





Elec Prices

Average Energy Prices (2006 $ / MMBtu) source: EIA plus AEO2006 price trends

Electricity ($/MMBtu site energy)

Ref. High Low

2005 31.24 31.16 31.32

2006 30.29 30.29 30.29

2007 28.43 28.59 28.18

2008 27.37 27.64 27.04

2009 27.09 27.38 26.69

2010 26.93 27.27 26.53

2011 26.67 27.17 26.31

2012 26.54 27.05 26.10

2013 26.75 27.32 26.11

2014 26.62 27.42 26.11

2015 26.34 26.95 25.80

2016 26.30 26.95 25.72

2017 26.34 26.98 25.81

2018 26.45 27.15 25.87

2019 26.62 27.32 25.93

2020 26.56 27.39 25.81

2021 26.68 27.44 25.90

2022 26.70 27.59 25.90

2023 26.64 27.58 25.87

2024 26.74 27.75 25.94

2025 26.91 27.73 26.04

2026 26.90 27.88 26.09

2027 26.95 27.87 26.07

2028 26.91 27.90 26.10

2029 26.96 28.11 26.08

2030 27.19 28.11 26.28

2031 27.25 28.18 26.33

2032 27.31 28.25 26.37

2033 27.38 28.33 26.42

2034 27.44 28.40 26.47

2035 27.51 28.47 26.52

2036 27.57 28.55 26.56

2037 27.64 28.62 26.61

2038 27.70 28.69 26.66

2039 27.77 28.77 26.71

2040 27.83 28.84 26.75

2041 27.90 28.92 26.80

2042 27.96 28.99 26.85

2043 28.03 29.07 26.90

2044 28.09 29.14 26.95

2045 28.16 29.22 26.99

2046 28.22 29.29 27.04

2047 28.29 29.37 27.09

2048 28.36 29.44 27.14

2049 28.42 29.52 27.19

2050 28.49 29.60 27.24

2051 28.56 29.67 27.29

2052 28.62 29.75 27.34

2053 28.69 29.83 27.38

2054 28.76 29.90 27.43

2055 28.82 29.98 27.48





Heat Rates

Marginal Site to Source Conversion Factor

Elec

(Btu/kWh)

2005 11500

2006 11500

2007 11200

2008 10000

2009 9737

2010 9737

2011 9737

2012 9649

2013 9499

2014 8649

2015 7324

2016 7024

2017 7024

2018 7024

2019 7024

2020 7024

2021 7024

2022 7024

2023 7024

2024 7024

2025 7024

2026 7024

2027 7024

2028 7024

2029 7024

2030 7024

2031 7024

2032 7024

2033 7024

2034 7024

2035 7024

2036 7024

2037 7024

2038 7024

2039 7024

2040 7024

2041 7024

2042 7024

2043 7024

2044 7024

2045 7024

2046 7024

2047 7024

2048 7024

2049 7024

2050 7024

2051 7024

2052 7024

2053 7024

2054 7024

2055 7024





Lifetime

Assumptions: From Input

Lifetime of Microwave Ovens Lifetime of Microwave Ovens after 2009:

Average 9.0 Average 9.0

Min 7.0 Min 7.0

Max 10.0 Max 10.0

Mode 10.0 Mode 10.0

% Surv from year before

Age % retiring % surviving Age % retiring % surviving pre-2010 post-2010

1 0.0% 100.0% 1 0.0% 100.0% 100% 100%

2 0.0% 100.0% 2 0.0% 100.0% 100% 100%

3 0.0% 100.0% 3 0.0% 100.0% 100% 100%

4 0.0% 100.0% 4 0.0% 100.0% 100% 100%

5 0.0% 100.0% 5 0.0% 100.0% 100% 100%

6 0.0% 100.0% 6 0.0% 100.0% 100% 100%

7 2.9% 97.1% 7 2.9% 97.1% 97% 97%

8 21.7% 75.4% 8 21.7% 75.4% 78% 78%

9 43.0% 32.4% 9 43.0% 32.4% 43% 43%

10 32.4% 0.0% 10 32.4% 0.0% 0% 0%

11 0.0% 0.0% 11 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0%

12 0.0% 0.0% 12 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0%

13 0.0% 0.0% 13 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0%

14 0.0% 0.0% 14 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0%

sum 100.0% sum 100.0%

wt. avg. Lifetime = 9.0 wt. avg. Lifetime = 9.0

Max Age = 13





Lifetime pre-2010 Lifetime post-2010

0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00

Average Value: Average of data sources 0.1 0.00 0.1 0.00

Minimum Value: Appliance Magazine 0.2 0.00 0.2 0.00

0.3 0.00 0.3 0.00

0.4 0.00 0.4 0.00

0.5 0.00 0.5 0.00

0.5 0.00 0.5 0.00

0.6 0.00 0.6 0.00

0.7 0.00 0.7 0.00

0.8 0.00 0.8 0.00

0.9 0.00 0.9 0.00

1.0 0.00 1.0 0.00

1.1 0.00 1.1 0.00

1.2 0.00 1.2 0.00

1.3 0.00 1.3 0.00

1.4 0.00 1.4 0.00

1.4 0.00 1.4 0.00

1.5 0.00 1.5 0.00

1.6 0.00 1.6 0.00

1.7 0.00 1.7 0.00

1.8 0.00 1.8 0.00

1.9 0.00 1.9 0.00

2.0 0.00 2.0 0.00

2.1 0.00 2.1 0.00

2.2 0.00 2.2 0.00

2.3 0.00 2.3 0.00

2.3 0.00 2.3 0.00

2.4 0.00 2.4 0.00

2.5 0.00 2.5 0.00

2.6 0.00 2.6 0.00

2.7 0.00 2.7 0.00

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

% Surviving

% Retiring

2.7 0.00 2.7 0.00

2.8 0.00 2.8 0.00

2.9 0.00 2.9 0.00

3.0 0.00 3.0 0.00

3.1 0.00 3.1 0.00

3.2 0.00 3.2 0.00

3.2 0.00 3.2 0.00

3.3 0.00 3.3 0.00

3.4 0.00 3.4 0.00

3.5 0.00 3.5 0.00

3.6 0.00 3.6 0.00

3.7 0.00 3.7 0.00

3.8 0.00 3.8 0.00

3.9 0.00 3.9 0.00

4.0 0.00 4.0 0.00

4.1 0.00 4.1 0.00

4.1 0.00 4.1 0.00

4.2 0.00 4.2 0.00

4.3 0.00 4.3 0.00

4.4 0.00 4.4 0.00

4.5 0.00 4.5 0.00

4.6 0.00 4.6 0.00

4.7 0.00 4.7 0.00

4.8 0.00 4.8 0.00
4.9 0.00 4.9 0.00

5.0 0.00 5.0 0.00

5.0 0.00 5.0 0.00

5.1 0.00 5.1 0.00

5.2 0.00 5.2 0.00

5.3 0.00 5.3 0.00

5.4 0.00 5.4 0.00

5.5 0.00 5.5 0.00

5.6 0.00 5.6 0.00

5.7 0.00 5.7 0.00

5.8 0.00 5.8 0.00

5.9 0.00 5.9 0.00

5.9 0.00 5.9 0.00

6.0 0.00 6.0 0.00

6.1 0.00 6.1 0.00

6.2 0.00 6.2 0.00

6.3 0.00 6.3 0.00

6.4 0.00 6.4 0.00

6.5 0.00 6.5 0.00

6.6 0.00 6.6 0.00

6.7 0.00 6.7 0.00

6.7 0.00 6.7 0.00

6.8 0.00 6.8 0.00

6.9 0.00 6.9 0.00

7.0 0.00 7.0 0.00

7.1 0.02 7.1 0.02

7.2 0.04 7.2 0.04

7.3 0.06 7.3 0.06

7.4 0.08 7.4 0.08

7.5 0.10 7.5 0.10

7.6 0.12 7.6 0.12

7.6 0.14 7.6 0.14

7.7 0.16 7.7 0.16

7.8 0.18 7.8 0.18

7.9 0.20 7.9 0.20

8.0 0.22 8.0 0.22

8.1 0.24 8.1 0.24

8.2 0.26 8.2 0.26

8.3 0.28 8.3 0.28

8.4 0.30 8.4 0.30

8.5 0.32 8.5 0.32

8.5 0.34 8.5 0.34

8.6 0.36 8.6 0.36

8.7 0.38 8.7 0.38

8.8 0.40 8.8 0.40

8.9 0.42 8.9 0.42

9.0 0.44 9.0 0.44

9.1 0.46 9.1 0.46

9.2 0.48 9.2 0.48

9.3 0.50 9.3 0.50

9.4 0.52 9.4 0.52

9.4 0.54 9.4 0.54

9.5 0.56 9.5 0.56

9.6 0.58 9.6 0.58

9.7 0.60 9.7 0.60

9.8 0.62 9.8 0.62

9.9 0.64 9.9 0.64
10.0 0.66 10.0 0.66

10.1 0.00 10.1 0.00

10.2 0.00 10.2 0.00

10.3 0.00 10.3 0.00

10.4 0.00 10.4 0.00

10.4 0.00 10.4 0.00

10.5 0.00 10.5 0.00

10.6 0.00 10.6 0.00

10.7 0.00 10.7 0.00

10.8 0.00 10.8 0.00

10.9 0.00 10.9 0.00

11.0 0.00 11.0 0.00

11.1 0.00 11.1 0.00

11.2 0.00 11.2 0.00

11.3 0.00 11.3 0.00

11.3 0.00 11.3 0.00

11.4 0.00 11.4 0.00

11.5 0.00 11.5 0.00

11.6 0.00 11.6 0.00

11.7 0.00 11.7 0.00

11.8 0.00 11.8 0.00

11.9 0.00 11.9 0.00

12.0 0.00 12.0 0.00

12.1 0.00 12.1 0.00

12.2 0.00 12.2 0.00

12.2 0.00 12.2 0.00

12.3 0.00 12.3 0.00

12.4 0.00 12.4 0.00

12.5 0.00 12.5 0.00

12.6 0.00 12.6 0.00

12.7 0.00 12.7 0.00

12.8 0.00 12.8 0.00

12.9 0.00 12.9 0.00

13.0 0.00 13.0 0.00

13.1 0.00 13.1 0.00

13.1 0.00 13.1 0.00

13.2 0.00 13.2 0.00

13.3 0.00 13.3 0.00

13.4 0.00 13.4 0.00

13.5 0.00 13.5 0.00

13.6 0.00 13.6 0.00

13.7 0.00 13.7 0.00

13.8 0.00 13.8 0.00

13.9 0.00 13.9 0.00

14.0 0.00 14.0 0.00

14.0 0.00 14.0 0.00

14.1 0.00 14.1 0.00

14.2 0.00 14.2 0.00

14.3 0.00 14.3 0.00

14.4 0.00 14.4 0.00

14.5 0.00 14.5 0.00

14.6 0.00 14.6 0.00

14.7 0.00 14.7 0.00

14.8 0.00 14.8 0.00

14.9 0.00 14.9 0.00

14.9 0.00 14.9 0.00

15.0 0.00 15.0 0.00
15.1 0.00 15.1 0.00

15.2 0.00 15.2 0.00

15.3 0.00 15.3 0.00

15.4 0.00 15.4 0.00

15.5 0.00 15.5 0.00

15.6 0.00 15.6 0.00

15.7 0.00 15.7 0.00

15.8 0.00 15.8 0.00

15.8 0.00 15.8 0.00

15.9 0.00 15.9 0.00

16.0 0.00 16.0 0.00

16.1 0.00 16.1 0.00

16.2 0.00 16.2 0.00

16.3 0.00 16.3 0.00

16.4 0.00 16.4 0.00

16.5 0.00 16.5 0.00

16.6 0.00 16.6 0.00

16.7 0.00 16.7 0.00

16.7 0.00 16.7 0.00

16.8 0.00 16.8 0.00

16.9 0.00 16.9 0.00

17.0 0.00 17.0 0.00

17.1 0.00 17.1 0.00

17.2 0.00 17.2 0.00

17.3 0.00 17.3 0.00

17.4 0.00 17.4 0.00

17.5 0.00 17.5 0.00

17.6 0.00 17.6 0.00

17.6 0.00 17.6 0.00

17.7 0.00 17.7 0.00

17.8 0.00 17.8 0.00

17.9 0.00 17.9 0.00

18.0 0.00 18.0 0.00

18.1 0.00 18.1 0.00

18.2 0.00 18.2 0.00

18.3 0.00 18.3 0.00

18.4 0.00 18.4 0.00

18.5 0.00 18.5 0.00

18.5 0.00 18.5 0.00

18.6 0.00 18.6 0.00

18.7 0.00 18.7 0.00

18.8 0.00 18.8 0.00

18.9 0.00 18.9 0.00

19.0 0.00 19.0 0.00

19.1 0.00 19.1 0.00

19.2 0.00 19.2 0.00

19.3 0.00 19.3 0.00

19.4 0.00 19.4 0.00

19.4 0.00 19.4 0.00

19.5 0.00 19.5 0.00

19.6 0.00 19.6 0.00

19.7 0.00 19.7 0.00

19.8 0.00 19.8 0.00

19.9 0.00 19.9 0.00

20.0 0.00 20.0 0.00

20.1 0.00 20.1 0.00

20.2 0.00 20.2 0.00
20.3 0.00 20.3 0.00

20.3 0.00 20.3 0.00

20.4 0.00 20.4 0.00

20.5 0.00 20.5 0.00

20.6 0.00 20.6 0.00

20.7 0.00 20.7 0.00

20.8 0.00 20.8 0.00

20.9 0.00 20.9 0.00

21.0 0.00 21.0 0.00

21.1 0.00 21.1 0.00

21.2 0.00 21.2 0.00

21.2 0.00 21.2 0.00

21.3 0.00 21.3 0.00

21.4 0.00 21.4 0.00

21.5 0.00 21.5 0.00

21.6 0.00 21.6 0.00

21.7 0.00 21.7 0.00

21.8 0.00 21.8 0.00

21.9 0.00 21.9 0.00

22.0 0.00 22.0 0.00

22.1 0.00 22.1 0.00

22.1 0.00 22.1 0.00

22.2 0.00 22.2 0.00

22.3 0.00 22.3 0.00

22.4 0.00 22.4 0.00

22.5 0.00 22.5 0.00

22.6 0.00 22.6 0.00

22.7 0.00 22.7 0.00

22.8 0.00 22.8 0.00

22.9 0.00 22.9 0.00

23.0 0.00 23.0 0.00

23.0 0.00 23.0 0.00

23.1 0.00 23.1 0.00

23.2 0.00 23.2 0.00

23.3 0.00 23.3 0.00

23.4 0.00 23.4 0.00

23.5 0.00 23.5 0.00

23.6 0.00 23.6 0.00

23.7 0.00 23.7 0.00

23.8 0.00 23.8 0.00

23.9 0.00 23.9 0.00

23.9 0.00 23.9 0.00

24.0 0.00 24.0 0.00

24.1 0.00 24.1 0.00

24.2 0.00 24.2 0.00

24.3 0.00 24.3 0.00

24.4 0.00 24.4 0.00

24.5 0.00 24.5 0.00

24.6 0.00 24.6 0.00

24.7 0.00 24.7 0.00

24.8 0.00 24.8 0.00

24.8 0.00 24.8 0.00

24.9 0.00 24.9 0.00

25.0 0.00 25.0 0.00

25.1 0.00 25.1 0.00

25.2 0.00 25.2 0.00

25.3 0.00 25.3 0.00
25.4 0.00 25.4 0.00

25.5 0.00 25.5 0.00

25.6 0.00 25.6 0.00

25.7 0.00 25.7 0.00

25.7 0.00 25.7 0.00

25.8 0.00 25.8 0.00

25.9 0.00 25.9 0.00

26.0 0.00 26.0 0.00

26.1 0.00 26.1 0.00

26.2 0.00 26.2 0.00

26.3 0.00 26.3 0.00

26.4 0.00 26.4 0.00

26.5 0.00 26.5 0.00

26.6 0.00 26.6 0.00

26.6 0.00 26.6 0.00

26.7 0.00 26.7 0.00

26.8 0.00 26.8 0.00

26.9 0.00 26.9 0.00

27.0 0.00 27.0 0.00
me post-2010