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US. Department of Energy June 1999 

### Clothes WasherLife Cycle Cost (LCC) SpreadsheetInstructions
What does the Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) spreadsheet do? The LCC spreadsheet 

### (currently LccCW _ 7.xis) performs calculations for life-cycle cost and paybackperiods. The LCC spreadsheet operates in Excel 97 orExcel 7 (Windows 95). The Excel add-on Crystal Ball (version 4.0) allows the user to perform uncertainty analysis on key input variables.


### What are the Worksheets in the Workbook? The workbook 

### LccCW _7.xls includes the following worksheets: 

### LCC (Sample Cale)
LCC (Distributions)

Water JPrice Dist Household Data Engineering Energy Price
drate dist
Lifetime contains the input selections and a summary table ofenergy use, operating costs, LCC and Payback. contains the input selections as in the LCC (Sample Cale) sheet. The energy, cost, LCC and payback data are for the current sample ifCrystal Ball is running orthe last sample run ifnot currently running. contains price and escalation data for water. contains marginal energy prices for each sample household, washer cycles peryear for each household, and fuel use distributions. contains the manufacturer costs for each efficiency level, as well as the manufacturer and retail markups. contains energy prices from the various sources ofenergy price information; this is used for determining the energy price escalation. contains data from which an average discount rate and a distribution ofdiscount rates is determined. contains the retirement function for clothes washers and the average clothes washer lifetime in years.
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### Setup this is used as an interface between user inputs andthe rest ofthe worksheets

-- do not modify this sheet.


### How does the user operate the spreadsheet? To execute the spreadsheets fully you will need both Microsoft Excel and Crystal Ball software. Both applications are commercially available. Crystal ball is available at http://www.decisioneering.com. 

### 1. Once youhave downloaded the LCC file from the Web, openthe file using.Excel. Atthe bottom, click on the tab for sheet 

### LCC (Sample Cale) or 

### LCC (Distributions). 

### 2. Use Excel's commands at the top 

### View/Zoom to change the size ofthe display to make it fit your monitor. Note, that the zoom level for each ofthe worksheets should be set to the --same value. Otherwise a bug inExcel will cause a 'Notenough system resources to

display completely' error. 3. The user interacts with the spreadsheetby clicking choices orentering data using the graphical interface that comes with the spreadsheet. Choices canbe selected from the box labeled 

### List Inputs on either oftwo work sheets: a) 

### LCC (Sample Cale) or, 

### b) LCC (Distributions). A change in either input sheet also changes the other. Inthe boxtitled 

### List Inputs select choices from the selectionboxes for (1) energy price**projectio~** (2) start year, (3) baseline design, (4) standard case design, (5) waterheater (WH) 

### I dryer combination, (6) water escalationrate, (7) manufacturer's cost (percentile or distribution). Onthe LCC (Distributions) worksheet, discount rate can also be entered ifa value other than the default distribution is wanted. After any changes, restore this value to =drate _dist 

### ifyou wish to restore the default distributions. Onthe LCC (Sample Cale) worksheet, non-default values canbe specified for the discount rate, clothes washer lifetime, cycles (wash loads) peryear and energy prices. Click onthe Restore Defaults commandbutton 

### ifyou wantto restore the default values for these parameters 

### inthis worksheet. 4. To change assumptions on 

### List Inputs click on the assumption you wish to change, and click on the new assumption from the menu.

25. This spreadsheet gives the usertwo methods ofrunning the spreadsheet. a) Ifthe LCC (Sample Cale) sheet is chosen, then all calculations are performed for single inputvalues, usually an average. The newresults are shown on the same sheet as soon as the newvalues are entered. b) Alternately, ifthe LCC (distributions) sheet is used. The spreadsheet generates results that are distributions. Some ofthe inputs are also distributions. The results on the LCC distribution that are shown as single values only refer to the results from the last Monte Carlo sample and are therefore not meaningful. To run the distribution version ofthe spreadsheetthe Excel add-in software called Crystal Ball must be enabled.


### What is theLCC(Sample Calculation) 

### sheet used for? LCC difference and Payback are inthe LCC (Sample Cale) sheet are based on single point values. This page canbe used to see the effect ofchanging a single parameter. It is also used to determine a rebuttable presumptionpayback (when inputs are based ontestprocedure values wherever possible).


### How does the user run the CrystalBall simulation? (LCC Distribution sheet) To produce sensitivity results using Crystal Ball, you need simply select

### Run from the 

### Run menu (on the menu bar). To make basic changes inthe run sequence, including altering the number of trials, select runpreferences from the Run menu. After each simulation run, the user needs to selectReset (also from the 

### Run menu) before Run canbe selected again. Once Crystal Ball has completed its run sequence itwill produce a series ofdistributions. Using the menu bars onthe distribution results it is possible to obtainfurther statistical information. Thetime taken to i::omplete a run sequence can be reduced by minimizing the CrystaI Ball window inExcel. A step by step 

### swnmary ofthe procedure, for 

### running a distribution analysis, is outlined below: 1. Find the Crystal Ball toolbar 2. Click on

### RUN 3. SelectPreference and choose from the following choices: a) Monte Carlo 1 b) LatinHypercube c) Initial seed choices and whetheryou want it to be constant between runs

1Because ofthe nature ofthe program, there is some variationin results due to random sampling when Monte Carlo or Latin Hypercube sampling is used. 

### 3d) Selectnumber ofMonte Carlo Trials (we suggest 10,000 for high accuracy calculations and 500 for quick calculations). 4. To run the simulation, follow the following sequence (on the Crystal Ball toolbar) 

### RUN RESET RUN 

### 5. Nowwait until the program informs you that the simulation is completed.



### What kind ofoutput does Crystal Ball generate? 1. After the simulation has finished Monte Carlo run, to see the distribution charts generated, --Click onthe Windows tab barthat is labeled 

### CrystalBall. 2. Currently, the life-cycle cost savings and paybackperiods are defined as 

### forecast cells. The

### .frequency charts display the results ofthe simulations, ortrials, performed by Crystal Ball. Click on any chart to bring it into view. The charts showthe low and high endpoints ofthe forecasts. The 

### View selection onthe CB toolbar canbe used to specify whether youwant cumulative orfrequency plots shown. 3. To calculate the probability ofLCC savings being positive, eithertype 0 in the boxby the right arrow, ormove the arrow key with the cursor to 0 onthe scale. The value inthe 

### Certainty box shows the likelihood that the LCC difference between the baseline and standard case will be positive. To calculate the certainty ofpaybackperiodbeing below a certain number ofyears, choose that value as the high endpoint. 4. To generate a printout report, select 

### Create Reportfrom the 

### Run menu. The toolbar choice of

### ForecastWindows allows you to selectthe charts and statistics you are interested 

### in. Forfurther information on Crystal Ball outputs, please refer to 

### Understanding the Forecast Chart in the Crystal Ball manual.

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