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 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

 + + + + +

ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS

FOR RESIDENTIAL FURNACE FANS

 + + + + +

 MEETING

 + + + + +

 TUESDAY,

 DECEMBER 3, 2013

 + + + + +

 The panel met in the Room 8E-089,

 1000 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington,

 DC, at 9:00 a.m., Doug Brookman, Moderator,

 presiding.

 PRESENT

 DOUG BROOKMAN, Moderator

 JOSHUA COCCIARDI, U.S. Department of Energy

 JOHN CYMBALSKY, U.S. Department of Energy

 KAVITA VAIDYANATHAN, U.S. Department of

 Energy

 TIMOTHY BALLO, Earthjustice

 TOM J. BROOKS, JR., Southern Company

 DONALD M. BRUNDAGE, Southern Company

 LANE BURT, NRDC

 GARY CLARK, Daikin Manufacturing

 ROSALYN COCHRANE, Natural Resources Canada

 OWEN COMSTOCK, U.S. Energy Information

 Administration

 ANDREW DELASKI, Appliance Standards Awareness

 Project

 SCOTT DURFEE, Nidec Motor Corporation
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 KEVIN FOLEY, Navigant Consulting

 VICTOR FRANCO, Lawrence Berkeley National

 Laboratory

 MARSHALL HUNT, Pacific Gas & Electric Company

 DIANE JAKOBS, Rheem Manufacturing

 SAMUEL JASINSKI, Navigant Consulting

 CHRISTOPHER LAU, Navigant Consulting

 ALEX LEKOV, Lawrence Berkeley National

 Laboratory

 PAUL C. LIN, Regal-Beloit Corporation

 RONALD MAJETTE, Department of Energy

 CHARLES MCCRUDDEN, Air Conditioning

 Contractors of America

 MARK MENZER, Intertek

 DAVID D. RANSOM, McDermott Will & Emery

 GREG ROSENQUIST, Lawrence Berkeley National

 Laboratory

 STEVE ROSENSTOCK, Edison Electric Institute

 ANIRUDDH ROY, Air Conditioning, Heating &

 Refrigeration Institute

 HARVEY SACHS, American Council for an Energy

 Efficient Economy

 PAUL SELKING, Regal-Beloit Corporation

 TERRY SMALL, Mortex Products, Inc.

 ANDREW K. SOTO, American Gas Association

 CHARLIE STEPHENS, Northwest Energy Efficiency

 Alliance

 JAMES T. VERSHAW, Ingersoll-Rand

 GREGORY WAGNER, Morrison Products, Inc.

 DAVE WINNINGHAM, Allied Air Enterprises

 TED WILLIAMS, American Gas Association

 XING XU, Navigant Consulting
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 C-O-N-T-E-N-T-S

 Call to Order 5

 Doug Brookman

 Welcome Remarks 5

 Ronald Majette

 Introductions 6

 Agenda Review 12

 Doug Brookman

 Purpose and Scope of the Public Meeting

 15

 Doug Brookman

 Opening Statements 16

 Diane Jakobs 16

 Don Brundage 21

 Jim VerShaw 23

 Andrew deLaski

 24

 Presentation with Content Slides

 30

 Overview 30

 Ron Majette

 Criteria for Selecting Standards

 Levels 45

 Ron Majette

 Market Assessment 55

 Kevin Foley

 Engineering Analysis

 90

 Kevin Foley 
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 Markups; Energy Use Characterization

 174

 Victor Franco

 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period

 Analysis 248

 Victor Franco

 National Impact Analysis, Shipments, 

 and Regulatory Impact Analysis

 282

 Alex Lekov

 Manufacturer Impact Analysis

 314

 Chris Lau

 Environmental Impacts

 328

 Alex Lekov

 Results and Proposed Standards

 336

 Alex Lekov

 Closing Remarks from Interested

 Parties 362

 Ronald Majette

 Adjourn 373

 Doug Brookman
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1 P-R-O-C-E-E-D-I-N-G-S

2 9:10 a.m.

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: This is the

4 Energy Conservation Standards meeting, the

5 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for Residential

6 Furnace Fans. Today is December 3rd, 2013,

7 here in the Forrestal Building in Washington,

8 D.C.

9 Welcome. So glad you're here. 

10 Glad you made it this morning.

11 We are going to start with

12 welcoming remarks from Ron Majette.

13 MR. MAJETTE: Good morning all.

14 My name is Ron Majette from the

15 U.S. Department of Energy.

16 I wanted to welcome you all to

17 Washington, D.C.

18 I hope we have a good meeting for

19 today, no punching, no eye-pulling, no

20 eye-scratching. Okay?

21 (Laughter.)

22 We just need information, so that
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1 we can complete our regulatory requirements

2 for accomplishing this rulemaking.

3 Any of your comments proposed

4 today will be part of the public record. So,

5 please, as much as possible, have dialog with

6 people around with you and with us, so we can

7 gather more information.

8 Thank you.

9 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you.

10 We always start with

11 introductions.

12 You can get used to turning these

13 microphones on and off. Unless you're using

14 them, please leave them turned off. When they

15 are on, the little green button will be

16 glowing green.

17 Let's start to my immediate left,

18 your name and organizational affiliation.

19 MR. WINNINGHAM: Dave Winningham,

20 Allied Air, Lennox International.

21 MR. SMALL: Terry Small, Mortex

22 Products, Inc.
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1 MR. ROY: Aniruddh Roy,

2 Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration

3 Institute.

4 MR. SACHS: Harvey Sachs, American

5 Council for Energy Efficient Economy.

6 MS. COCHRANE: Rosalyn Cochrane,

7 Natural Resources Canada.

8 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

9 Edison Electric Institute.

10 MR. VERSHAW: Jim VerShaw,

11 Ingersoll-Rand.

12 DR. JAKOBS: Diane Jakobs, Rheem

13 Manufacturing.

14 MR. DURFEE: Scott Durfee, Nidec

15 Motor Corporation.

16 MR. McCRUDDEN: Charlie McCrudden,

17 Air Conditioning Contractors of America.

18 MR. DELASKI: Andrew deLaski,

19 Appliance Standards Awareness Project.

20 MR. HUNT: Marshall Hunt, Pacific

21 Gas and Electric Company.

22 MR. CLARK: Gary Clark, Goodman
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1 Manufacturing.

2 MR. RANSOM: Dave Ransom. I'm an

3 attorney at McDermott Will & Emery.

4 MR. BRUNDAGE: Don Brundage,

5 Southern Company, electric utility.

6 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: Kavita

7 Vaidyanathan. I'm here at the U.S. Department

8 of Energy in the General Counsel's Office.

9 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: John,

10 introduce yourself, please.

11 MR. CYMBALSKY: John Cymbalsky,

12 DOE.

13 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: And please

14 just stand.

15 MR. FOLEY: Kevin Foley, Navigant

16 Consulting.

17 MR. JASINSKI: Sam Jasinski,

18 Navigant Consulting.

19 MR. LAU: Christopher Lau,

20 Navigant Consulting.

21 DR. LEKOV: Alex Lekov, Lawrence

22 Berkeley National Laboratory.
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1 MR. FRANCO: Victor Franco,

2 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

3 MR. LIN: Paul Lin with the

4 Regal-Beloit Corporation.

5 MR. SELKING: Paul Selking with

6 the Regal-Beloit Corporation.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: It will be

8 sufficient just to stand.

9 Yes?

10 MR. WAGNER: Greg Wagner, Morrison

11 Products.

12 MR. BROOKS: Tom Brooks, Southern

13 Company.

14 MR. XU: Xing Xu, Navigant

15 Consulting.

16 MR. MENZER: Mark Menzer,

17 Intertek.

18 MR. WILLIAMS: Ted Williams,

19 American Gas Association.

20 MR. SOTO: Andrew Soto with the

21 American Gas Association.

22 MR. BURT: Lane Burt, representing 
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1 the Natural Resources Defense Council.

2 MR. ROSENQUIST: Greg Rosenquist,

3 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

4 MR. STEPHENS: Charlie Stephens,

5 Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance.

6 MR. BALLO: Tim Ballo,

7 Earthjustice.

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Did everyone

9 introduce him or herself? Good.

10 Well, once again, thanks to all of

11 you for being here and allowing us to get an

12 early start on the day. Welcome.

13 All of you received a packet of

14 information when you came in the door. I am

15 going to do a very brief agenda review, if you

16 will turn to page 2 of your packet.

17 Immediately following this agenda

18 review, there is an overview of the purpose of

19 this public meeting and an opportunity for

20 anybody that wants to, anybody that wishes to,

21 to make an opening statement, brief opening

22 remarks, issues that are important to you,
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1 things that you wish to raise here at the

2 outset.

3 During the conduct of the meeting

4 today, as we go through these detailed content

5 slides, lots and lots of opportunity for you

6 to cover whatever you wish to cover in

7 whatever form you wish to cover it.

8 Doing it contiguous, working with

9 the content slides themselves, it makes it

10 easier to create a complete and a good record. 

11 There will be a complete transcript of this

12 meeting.

13 So, immediately following the

14 opening statements, there is going to an

15 overview on regulatory authority and

16 rulemaking overview.

17 Following that, market and

18 technology assessment and screening analysis.

19 We will take a break mid-morning,

20 right about 10:15 or so.

21 Following that, an engineering

22 analysis and mockups, energy use
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1 characterization.

2 We will take lunch round about

3 noon today. Everybody is going to be on their

4 own. We will talk about that when we get

5 there.

6 Following that, when we return,

7 life cycle costs and payback period analysis,

8 national impact analysis, shipments,

9 regulatory impact analysis.

10 We'll take a break mid-afternoon,

11 round about 1:45, maybe 2:00-ish.

12 When we return, manufacturing

13 impact analysis, environmental impact results

14 and proposed standards.

15 And at the end of the day, yet

16 another opportunity for closing remarks, any

17 additional comments, anything that you think

18 that hasn't been said or covered sufficiently,

19 another opportunity to do that.

20 And we intend to close today

21 around about four o'clock. We'll see how that

22 turns out as we pace through the day.
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1 Questions and comments about the

2 agenda?

3 (No response.)

4 Many of you have been here before. 

5 I recognize about 80 percent of you, which is

6 a good thing.

7 I would ask for your

8 consideration. Please speak one at a time. 

9 Please say your name for the record each time

10 you speak. As Ron said, there will be a

11 complete transcript of this meeting made

12 available. It will be on the DOE website.

13 If you could keep the focus here,

14 turn your cell phones on silent mode. Limit

15 sidebar conversations. Remember to turn the

16 microphones on and off. If you can be concise

17 and share the airtime, and we are going to be

18 queuing individuals by name as best I can do

19 it.

20 We wish to encourage to follow-on. 

21 Sometimes the back-and-forth between

22 individuals is very, very helpful to the
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1 Department, as they consider the pros and cons

2 of these issues.

3 Okay. Anything additional at this

4 time before we proceed?

5 (No response.)

6 Those of you participating via the

7 webcast, welcome. We especially are wanting

8 to welcome web participants. The Department

9 of Energy is trying hard to make certain that

10 these meetings are accessible via the web.

11 How many folks do we have joining

12 us? Do we know? We don't know. Can they

13 hear us?

14 So, we are having a little bit of

15 technical difficulty getting everybody online

16 patched in, but, apparently, you can hear us.

17 We are going to make it possible

18 for you to participate, ask questions here

19 live in the room. However, until we get that

20 capability, if you would keep your telephones

21 on mute and raise your hand, if you wish to

22 speak, or you can send an email message to the
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1 web mistress here. And she will insert your

2 question. We'll get your content inserted

3 into the meeting.

4 And I think that is it.

5 Do you want to do the purpose of

6 the public meeting before weá okay. You can

7 see on slide 6 on page 3 of your packet the

8 purpose of the public meeting:

9 Present procedure and analytical

10 approaches.

11 Invite comment on the Energy

12 Conservation Standards Notice of Proposed

13 Rulemaking and Technical Support Document,

14 including DOE's proposed standard level.

15 And invite participants to provide

16 summary comments or statements and raise

17 additional issues for discussion.

18 So, that is the general purpose

19 and scope of this meeting.

20 And you can see on the following

21 slide, on slide 7, this issue box, which is

22 there to illustrate how the Department will
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1 seek specific comment on specific issues as we

2 go through the PowerPoint slides today.

3 So, that is the overview. 

4 Questions and comments before we proceed?

5 (No response.)

6 Yes, Diane? The microphone.

7 DR. JAKOBS: Thank you.

8 So, I have been through all these

9 documents many times, and there's a lot of

10 good work here. There are things there are

11 a lot of assumptions. This is like a big

12 thought experiment. The thing is, it is

13 lacking in data, and they have tried to supply

14 some data, but I don't think there is a lot of

15 data.

16 But I can get hung up on like any

17 one thing, but I tried to come up with three

18 things that I was most concerned about.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

20 DR. JAKOBS: So, the first one

21 isá 

22 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: So, pardon me
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1 for interrupting.

2 So, procedurally, we are

3 proceeding to the next step, which is opening

4 remarks, and you are right on track. Keep

5 going.

6 DR. JAKOBS: Okay. Thank you.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes.

8 DR. JAKOBS: Sorry.

9 So, No. 1, there is no test

10 procedure yet. So, when I went through all

11 this, I had in my mind what the test procedure

12 is, and I have data. I have data that we

13 calculated. I have data that we measured,

14 different flavors. But the truth is I don't

15 know what the test procedure is. So, that's

16 my first concern.

17 My second concern is that the

18 Technical Support Documents are really based

19 on data from Eae, which is the Energy what

20 is it? It's capital "E", subscript "ae", and

21 it comes from ASHRAE 103. And we have a lot

22 of data for that. That was used in the
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1 Technical Support Document, and that's how the

2 energy savings was calculated.

3 And it is all related to different

4 design options, like PSC motor and improved

5 PSC motor, BPM motor. There is not much

6 really in here about FER. But if you go to

7 the NOPR, it is all based on FER and it is

8 tied to those same design options.

9 But when I looked at the data I

10 had, based on what I assumed the FER is, the

11 design options didn't match up with the FER

12 values. So, I am really concerned about that.

13 And Rheem, we submitted 18

14 furnaces, and that's the data I'm looking at. 

15 And I'm concerned about that.

16 And then, the third one is, based

17 on the analysis, I believe that if your

18 furnace fan motor fails, that will offset all

19 the savings over the 26 years of life that

20 DOES is assuming for a furnace fan.

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you.

22 DR. JAKOBS: And I have been
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1 collecting warranty data. One of the things,

2 Rheem used to offer a one-year warranty

3 period, and I think it's 10 years now. So, we

4 only get data on furnaces that we warranty. 

5 I mean, some people they'll call and they'll

6 yell, "It's out of warranty," but that's not

7 really good data.

8 So, we only know I only had six

9 years of data. I have been looking at it. 

10 And then, I have been segregating. It is all

11 in a database. You can like search on

12 different things. And I have been using the

13 design options that DOE uses in the Technical

14 Support Document. So, PSC motors, condensing,

15 non-condensing, ECM, constant torque, all

16 these sections.

17 And what I found was, where the

18 Technical Support Document used a Weibull

19 analysis to predict the life of a furnace fan,

20 I found that, based on our data, PSC motors

21 did much better than that, and the BPM motors

22 did much worse. So, you could say it was an
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1 average, which is how it is described, but in

2 a way it doesn't describe anything because it

3 is either way better or way worse, which is

4 going sound terrible in the transcript.

5 But, anyway, so that concerns me

6 because, if you assume a furnace fan life is

7 long enough, you are going to save enough

8 money over a long enough time, and it is going

9 to offset the cost, where, in practical terms,

10 based on the data I have looked at, that

11 doesn't seem to be the case.

12 So, it is more you have a certain

13 amount of savings. But if you have to replace

14 your fan motor, it is all lost to the

15 consumer.

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Thank

17 you.

18 DR. JAKOBS: Okay. Thank you.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: That was

20 helpful.

21 Other comments here at the outset?

22 Yes, Don Brundage?
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1 MR. BRUNDAGE: Don Brundage,

2 Southern Company.

3 I also have several major

4 concerns. One is and I would like the

5 Department to explain at some point along the

6 way it appears that furnace fans are a

7 second efficiency measure on products where

8 this energy is already covered other

9 standards. If these fans are installed in

10 conjunction with a heat pump or air

11 conditioner, it is included within the SEER

12 value. I would like a little bit of

13 explanation at some point on how this is

14 really a separate product that should be

15 covered under an efficiency rulemaking.

16 I also have some significant power

17 quality issues related to the BPM motors,

18 looking at the harmonics and power factor

19 issues on them. There have been some studies

20 within the electric utility industry that show

21 significant problems if the market were

22 saturated with these types of technology
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1 motors.

2 And I am working to try to get

3 that report done by EPRI released to the

4 National Labs. It's copyrighted, and there's

5 some issues with that.

6 The other thing, to echo what

7 Rheem has said, is it just seems like the

8 furnace fan life is totally unrealistic. I

9 looked between the furnace NOPR and the

10 furnace fan, the furnace TSD and the furnace

11 fan TSD, and it looks like there's nearly

12 twice as many shipments of furnace fans as

13 there are furnaces. Now maybe some of those

14 are used in air conditioning in some way. 

15 There may be a good explanation for that.

16 But it appears that the assumption

17 that the furnace fan lasts as long as the

18 furnace is not realistic. And I would think

19 there would be some repair data available from

20 the service and maintenance and distributor

21 trade groups on that. But it seems like the

22 life of the furnace fan is just totally
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1 unrealistic to expect it to last as long as

2 the furnace.

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

4 MR. BRUNDAGE: Thank you.

5 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you.

6 Other comments here at the outset?

7 Yes?

8 MR. VERSHAW: Jim VerShaw of

9 Ingersoll-Rand.

10 There are some four areas that I

11 would hope they would be able to get into

12 today.

13 One is the derivation of the FER

14 equation. I think there are some flaws in

15 that, in particular, normalizing on Qmax and,

16 also, not using the total number of heating

17 hours in both the numerator and denominator

18 when you multi-stage products.

19 How packaged units or weatherized

20 furnaces were characterized seems to be

21 totally flawed because the numbers that I see

22 don't match up with anything that they are
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1 talking about in the standard.

2 And also, the assumption on the

3 energy savings from constant torque motors

4 isn't constant across the range of products as

5 it is assumed to be. So, there is no way that

6 we can get the same energy savings in small

7 units as a large unit.

8 And also, again, the reliability

9 and life is flawed in its assumptions there.

10 I think those technical issues are

11 significant to the outcome of the analysis and

12 need to be hopefully, we get into that. We

13 can show that there are some errors in there

14 that we can fix.

15 Thanks.

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Good. Thank

17 you. Thank you.

18 Andrew, do you have something here

19 at the outset?

20 MR. DELASKI: Yes. I'm Andrew

21 deLaski, Appliance Standards Awareness

22 Project.
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1 Doug knows me too well to let me

2 do an opening statement. So, I've got a

3 couple of remarks.

4 One is I look forward to the

5 dialog today and the discussion, and learning

6 more about the technical concerns that Rheem

7 and Ingersoll-Rand are raising and Don.

8 I think there is always room for

9 improvement in your analysis. So, I look

10 forward to hearing more about the concerns

11 that you have identified for your

12 identification, through your working through

13 the documents.

14 And I also want to echo your

15 praise for the Department in coming forward

16 with a lot of information, a lot of analysis. 

17 A lot of work has gone into this over many

18 years. So, we appreciate the work of the

19 Department coming forward with a proposed

20 rule.

21 I want to take us up to a little

22 bit of a higher level, too, and just emphasize
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1 the importance of this particular standard. 

2 There are many folks in this room, in this

3 room and outside of this room, who have worked

4 to improve furnace fan efficiency for a long

5 time through a variety of initiatives and

6 standards, and one of those initiatives that

7 has been underway now for some time.

8 When we look at the data in the

9 rule, in the proposed rule, and it is

10 supported through other sources as well, that

11 residential air handlers use about 1,000

12 kilowatt hours per year in an average

13 household. That's a lot. It's about, in

14 round numbers, it is about 10 percent of

15 residential electricity consumption.

16 So, this particular end-use

17 deserves our attention, and it deserves the

18 attention it has gotten over the past decade

19 and more, and it deserves the attention of the

20 folks in this room and of the Department. So,

21 we applaud the Department for moving forward

22 with this rulemaking, as required by the
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1 statute.

2 It also deserves our attention

3 because it is somewhat of an invisible energy

4 use. Not many consumers know that the furnace

5 fan in their basement is responsible for such

6 a big chunk of your electricity bill. You

7 have replaced all your lightbulbs. You have

8 done all your Energy Star appliances. And

9 here's this use in your basement that is

10 somewhat invisible to most consumers.

11 Most consumers have very little

12 control over the furnace fan they get. It

13 came with the house. Or if it failed, it was

14 replaced in an emergency situation. And the

15 contractor, Charlie's guy, got very little

16 chance to upsell to a better fan because

17 you've got to replace it in the moment. It is

18 a heat wave in the summertime or it's a cold

19 snap, and you've got to get that equipment

20 working again.

21 So, for the consumer, it is

22 invisible. It is hard to affect. So, the
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1 importance of standards I think is one that is

2 really quite clear.

3 According to the Department's

4 analysis, the savings are enormous from the

5 proposed levels. We're talking 50-percent

6 reduction in watts, 50-percent reduction in

7 kWh per year. There aren't many opportunities

8 to look at an average household and say,

9 "Here's a standard that can save in the

10 neighborhood of 5 percent in round numbers of

11 your residential electricity use." It is a

12 huge savings opportunity.

13 We support the proposed levels,

14 the proposed standards. We think they make a

15 lot of sense. We believe that a standard that

16 is based on a constant torque BPM motor and

17 multi-staging controls will yield significant

18 savings.

19 We also want to note that it is a

20 performance standard. It is based, the

21 standard is based on these technologies, but

22 it is a performance standard. In other words,
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1 you can get there any way that you I

2 suspect, as this goes forward, that we will

3 find that manufacturers get there through a

4 variety of strategies. And there are some

5 strategies that we had hoped would be included

6 in the analysis that ultimately weren't,

7 including improved airflow, including improved

8 housing design, that are still a pathway for

9 improvement, even though they weren't included

10 in the analysis itself.

11 So, I think that these

12 opportunities provide a way for

13 differentiation and a way for manufacturers to

14 reach improvements that ultimately weren't

15 included in the modeling itself.

16 The national benefits are very

17 large, 4.5 quads over 30 years of sales. It

18 is a big standard. In the world of appliance

19 standards, efficiency standards, this is a big

20 one. Twenty-six billion dollars in NPV

21 benefits for consumers at 3 percent, $8.5

22 billion at 7 percent. Those are big numbers
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1 and big savings for consumers nationally. 

2 Typical consumer paybacks are three to five

3 years under the DOE's current analysis.

4 And, of course, with those

5 electricity savings come very large emissions

6 reductions.

7 So, again, we look forward to the

8 opportunity to hear some more of the

9 information coming forward today, the dialog

10 in the workshop today, and thank the

11 Department for holding it.

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you.

13 Additional comments here?

14 (No response.)

15 Nothing additional?

16 Okay. Let's proceed with the

17 contents slides.

18 MR. MAJETTE: All right. Just a

19 very, very quick overview.

20 And even though this is ingrained

21 in everybody's head, you need to know that we

22 were told to do this. Congress has mandated
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1 that we have to look at this particular

2 rulemaking; we have to make improvements here. 

3 And this is why we come back and we need help,

4 as we are developing this.

5 So, I am not going to go into all

6 the different background pieces here because

7 you know quite well. But the main purpose

8 here is just to make sure it is

9 well-understood that this is our project. We

10 have to do it. So, we need to collectively

11 put our heads together to come up with the

12 best that we can, based upon the mandate that

13 was given to us.

14 We are in the last stage here as

15 far as the rulemaking process is concerned. 

16 So, we have completed the framework document. 

17 We have done the preliminary analysis. And

18 now, we are in the NOPR stage. So, we are at 

19 the last push to receive comments by the 24th

20 of this month to formulate and postulate a

21 final rule to be published.

22 This slide right here shows
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1 basically just a history of where we are at

2 this particular moment. Withstanding a

3 government shutdown and a couple of

4 conferences, but we have made it to this

5 point. So, we're here.

6 MR. VERSHAW: Ron, I'm Jim

7 VerShaw, Ingersoll-Rand.

8 MR. MAJETTE: Yes.

9 MR. VERSHAW: It says you're going

10 to publish the final test procedure by the end

11 of 2013. This is December. How are you

12 doing?

13 MR. MAJETTE: Okay. We're pushed

14 back. I should have updated this slide. One

15 of the things that really set us back was we

16 did have a backlog at OMB of a lot of test

17 procedures, a lot of rulemakings. And then,

18 we just coupled that with the government

19 shutdown. So, it looked like things were

20 backing up prior to the shutdown. We actually

21 had 15 days and then after that.

22 So, as a matter of fact, the
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1 publish date for this is going to be moved

2 back to near the end of February. However,

3 the comments 

4 MR. VERSHAW: So, it is difficult

5 I'm sorry. Let me start again.

6 MR. MAJETTE: Okay, yes. Just

7 stay here.

8 MR. VERSHAW: It is difficult, as

9 Diane said earlier, to really get into what a

10 product is going to do with you don't know for

11 sure how it is going to be tested. But we

12 won't really know the uncertainty of the test

13 procedure and all of that until that is

14 finalized. So, it almost says that we ought

15 to push back the comments on the final rule

16 until after we know what the test procedure

17 is.

18 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: I think Ron

19 misunderstood the question. I think what he

20 means is that the test procedure is still

21 slated to be final and published by the end of

22 2013. So, the test procedure should be done
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1 by the end of 2013, from what we are looking

2 at with our schedule, yes.

3 MR. VERSHAW: Is it already at

4 OMB?

5 MR. MAJETTE: Yes. I'm sorry. 

6 No, the test procedures don't have to don't

7 go.

8 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: The test

9 procedures don't have to go to OMB.

10 MR. MAJETTE: Yes.

11 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: It is only the

12 standards that go to OMB.

13 MR. VERSHAW: Okay. So, when can

14 we expect to see that again?

15 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: So, the test

16 procedure, we are slated to have it by the end

17 of 2013. I don't have an exact date.

18 MR. VERSHAW: Well, the comments

19 for this rule are due on the 24th.

20 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: Right.

21 MR. VERSHAW: Will we see it

22 before then?
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1 MR. MAJETTE: I might be able to

2 give that answer within this meeting.

3 MR. VERSHAW: Well, you can see

4 that the Catch 22 we are in here 

5 MR. MAJETTE: Yes.

6 MR. VERSHAW: in terms of we are

7 working on what the rule is going to be before

8 we really know what the final test procedure

9 is going to be.

10 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: Right, and we

11 understand that. And that is why we were

12 trying to get it out before the end of the

13 comment period for these standards.

14 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Let's see how

15 that evolves during the day.

16 Steve Rosenstock?

17 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: So, we'll look

18 at it.

19 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

20 Edison Electric Institute.

21 Again, looking at the timeline,

22 there was something on the NOPR about a test
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1 procedure, so I am assuming there were some

2 changes made between the NOPR and the

3 Supplemental NOPR to the test procedure, based

4 on feedback that you received from

5 manufacturers and other parties.

6 I guess the other possibility is,

7 are there any other changes that would affect

8 all of the FERs and all the other analysis?

9 MR. MAJETTE: Yes, I did confuse

10 the initial question. So, I apologize for

11 that.

12 I will, as we are doing the slide

13 presentation, I will go ahead and try to dig

14 that information out. I might be able to have

15 that today before the meeting is over. So, I

16 have to make that announcement.

17 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

18 Don Brundage?

19 MR. BRUNDAGE: It just seems to me

20 you haven't defined the rule or the

21 performance metric yet. So, it makes it very

22 difficult.
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1 I would strongly suggest, if there

2 is any changes to what has been proposed in

3 the test procedure NOPR, you do a Supplemental

4 NOPR for this one because you just can't

5 comment on something if you don't even know

6 how you're measuring energy savings.

7 Thank you.

8 MR. MAJETTE: Okay.

9 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you.

10 Aniruddh?

11 MR. ROY: I just want to add to

12 Jim VerShaw's comment. On page 64076 of The

13 Federal Register notice, as you can see from

14 the FER equation, this is based on the April

15 2nd SNOPR, and we had submitted comments to

16 the AHRI suggesting a revision to the

17 equation.

18 There is an 830 in the

19 denominator. We suggested a change to that

20 denominator. And so, the current NOPR

21 accounts for the 830 in this denominator.

22 So, depending on how DOE views our
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1 comments, the test procedure could reflect a

2 change back to that original equation to

3 account for the multi-staging units. So, just

4 what Jim pointed out, I wanted to give an

5 example that, if that change does take effect,

6 then it changes the whole analysis for this

7 particular rulemaking as well. So, they are

8 interrelated to an extent.

9 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Sam? Are you

10 on?

11 MR. JASINSKI: How about now?

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes.

13 MR. JASINSKI: Okay. Sam

14 Jasinski, Navigant Consulting.

15 Just as point of clarification,

16 the analyses reflected in the Notice of

17 Proposed Rulemaking are based on the test

18 procedure proposed in the test procedure

19 Supplemental Notice of Proposed Rulemaking,

20 which does not include the 830 in the

21 denominator.

22 So, the FER values used to come up
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1 with the proposed standard levels in this NOPR

2 are reflective of the most recent test

3 procedure. So, of course, we are still in the

4 process of finalizing the final rule, so we

5 are processing the comments that were

6 submitted on that test procedure SNOPR, but

7 the FER values okay.

8 DR. JAKOBS: Is the denominator a

9 constant?

10 MR. ROY: The denominator is a

11 constant, which is consistent with what was

12 proposed in the test procedure Supplemental

13 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.

14 MR. SACHS: This is Harvey Sachs.

15 Sam, that flew by a little bit

16 higher altitude than I could shoot at.

17 MR. JASINSKI: Okay.

18 MR. SACHS: Could you repeat,

19 please, slowly for us old folks 

20 MR. JASINSKI: Sure.

21 MR. SACHS: the difference

22 between what is published and how you actually
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1 tested it, and maybe help me understand a

2 little how come?

3 MR. JASINSKI: Sure. I'll go back

4 a little bit further because I think I was

5 sort of responding directly to Aniruddh, who

6 I know is 

7 MR. SACHS: He's smarter than I

8 am.

9 MR. JASINSKI: up-to-date on all

10 of these things. So, I'll give a little bit

11 of history.

12 So, in the test procedure

13 rulemaking, we published a NOPR, I guess it

14 was summer of last year. In that, the

15 proposed metric fan energy rating included a

16 factor in the denominator that essentially

17 increased that normalization factor based on

18 the number of heating hours.

19 So, in multi-stage units that have

20 multiple heating stages, DOE expects that the

21 heating hours will be greater compared to a

22 very similar service stage unit because it
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1 will operate for some period of time at a

2 lower heating output.

3 To reflect that, in the test

4 procedure NOPR, there was a factor called the

5 heating capacity ratio that was used to adjust

6 the annual average, estimated annual average

7 heating operating hours, which are 830 hours

8 for single-stage units. But, in order to

9 adjust that to reflect that a multi-stage unit

10 would operate longer, we divided that number

11 by that heating capacity ratio. DOE divided

12 that 830 both in the numerator of the fan

13 energy rating and in the denominator.

14 In between the test procedure NOPR

15 and the test procedure Supplemental Notice of

16 Proposed Rulemaking, DOE analyzed its data and

17 found that this overestimated the energy

18 savings of some of its technology options, of

19 multi-staging, in particular. In order to

20 have a metric that more accurately reflects

21 the savings that multi-staging can achieve, in

22 the SNOPR, the test procedure SNOPR, DOE
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1 eliminated that heating capacity ratio from

2 the denominator. So, now the denominator is

3 constant, which makes the fan energy rating

4 proportional to the estimated annual energy

5 consumption.

6 Now the question that, the

7 statement that Aniruddh made was that the

8 results that you are seeing today in the

9 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for the standard

10 are based on that old NOPR, test procedure

11 NOPR metric where the heating capacity ratio

12 was both in the numerator and denominator of

13 the fan energy rating, which would be

14 inconsistent with the most recent test

15 procedure notice, which eliminated the heating

16 capacity ratio from the denominator.

17 I am just here to clarify that

18 that is not the case. The results in the

19 standard Notice of Proposed Rulemaking are

20 based on the updated fan energy rating, which

21 has eliminated HCR from the denominator in

22 order to make it proportional to estimated
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1 annual energy consumption and to make the

2 estimated reduction in FER more accurate for

3 multi-staging as a technology option.

4 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane?

5 DR. JAKOBS: I submitted data for

6 18 furnaces.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Microphone.

8 DR. JAKOBS: I submitted data for

9 18 furnaces, and the original equation, which

10 was a weighted average, that aligned with my

11 actual data. The new one does not.

12 And actually, for all the people

13 interested in the details, I am going to have

14 to have a trial standard level of five in

15 order to build anything. So, an ECM motor

16 with multi-stages.

17 So, what you were describing and

18 it is only like one sentence in this 700 pages

19 where it was like it didn't match up we

20 changed it. It was like one sentence.

21 But that was not my experience

22 with the data that I have.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Aniruddh?

2 MR. ROY: Aniruddh Roy with AHRI.

3 So, Sam, if I understood you

4 correctly, the equation, the FER equation,

5 still in the denominator includes CH plus 830

6 plus CCH times Qmax, right?

7 MR. JASINSKI: Yes.

8 MR. ROY: Okay. So, in the

9 comments we submitted on May 2nd we

10 recommended changes to that denominator. And

11 so, we would like to see the final test

12 procedure reflect those changes, for the

13 reasons stated in that letter.

14 Obviously, the analysis that has

15 been done for this NOPR includes the FER

16 equation which the industry does not agree

17 with.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Jim?

19 MR. VERSHAW: Jim VerShaw.

20 Are we going to get into the

21 details of this FER equation later? 

22 Otherwise, I want to ask a question.
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1 MR. JASINSKI: Yes. There will be

2 a few slides on the FER equation.

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Several

4 slides on FER.

5 MR. VERSHAW: Because I would like

6 to see a real technical reason, other than

7 didn't like the results, when you changed it.

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes. Let's

9 just wait until we get there, and then, we

10 will dive deep at that point. Okay?

11 Thanks, Sam.

12 I'm going to turn to Ron and this

13 description of the regulatory history.

14 MR. MAJETTE: At this point, as

15 far as the schedule is concerned, were there

16 any more questions?

17 (No response.)

18 Okay. We're good on that for

19 right now. Okay.

20 All right. The next slide here is

21 criteria for selecting standards levels. The

22 Energy Policy Act directs DOE to consider
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1 seven factors when setting energy conservation

2 standards. Without going into a lot of

3 detail, but it lets us know how we formulate

4 analysis based upon the factor presented due

5 to EPCA.

6 As stated before, we are in the

7 last phase of the rulemaking process. So, we

8 are planning to go final. We will make sure

9 that we will have the timing estimates down

10 for as far as the test procedure, to make sure

11 that you have the test procedure in hand, so

12 you can make your final comments.

13 At this stage, we are not planning

14 to extend the comment period at this point in

15 time. However, we will look at the results of

16 how this meeting goes and see if there is

17 something necessary for us to possibly extend

18 it, if possible. Right now, we are standing

19 firm on the 24th as the closing date for

20 comments.

21 Diane?

22 DR. JAKOBS: So, there were a
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1 number of things about the test standard that

2 we commented on, and we haven't I don't

3 know. You know, I hope that you accepted our

4 arguments.

5 So, it is very reasonable to

6 assume that we have no specific test data to

7 whatever this final test procedure is going to

8 be. So, if the manufacturers were going to

9 supply test data, we would have to do it

10 between when we have the test procedure and

11 when we would have submit comments. So, that

12 is looking like when I am going to be at my

13 mom and dad's house in Chicago, you know. So,

14 yes, we need to keep this in mind.

15 Thank you.

16 MR. SMALL: They are interested,

17 aren't they?

18 DR. JAKOBS: Actually, my dad is,

19 but that's another story.

20 (Laughter.)

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes, we take

22 your point, Diane.
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1 Dave?

2 MR. WINNINGHAM: This is Dave

3 Winningham with Allied Air, Lennox.

4 I would support Diane's position. 

5 Getting this test procedure first of all,

6 I guess let's step back. From what we know of

7 the test procedure, there has been

8 considerable improvement from the initial

9 proposal. I think we can all agree with that,

10 and we very, very much appreciate it. I think

11 the outcome of that will be much less

12 burdensome to the manufacturers.

13 But getting the final test

14 procedure in enough time, so the manufacturers

15 can do the proper analysis to provide the

16 data, so that this rulemaking really makes

17 sense is critical.

18 But, with the compressed timeframe

19 that we are looking at, and also the time of

20 year, as Diane alluded to, I think looking at

21 an extension is appropriate.

22 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Thank
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1 you.

2 Aniruddh?

3 MR. ROY: I would just like 

4 Aniruddh Roy, AHRI I would like to just

5 point you to page 64079 of The Federal

6 Register Notice under "Methodology and

7 Discussion," it is section 4.

8 There DOE in its October notice

9 stated that the LCC payback periods, shipment

10 forecasts, national energy savings, NPV,

11 spreadsheets, as well as the GRIM model

12 spreadsheet, would be available online on the

13 link provided on that page. I think those

14 documents were uploaded recently. And even

15 the GRIM, as of yesterday, was not available.

16 So, for the industry at least, you

17 know, it was very difficult for us to know

18 exactly what inputs were used because even the

19 engineering analysis TSD, Chapter 5, doesn't

20 really get into the details, the specific

21 details on the inputs. It talks very

22 generally, but there are not many tables or,
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1 you know, figures inside Chapter 5 compared to

2 what we could actually see in the spreadsheet.

3 So, I think that is another reason

4 why we would like to see an extension in the

5 comment period deadline, because, you know, it

6 was stated in the October notice, but the

7 industry didn't have until, let's say, last

8 week or even earlier this week to even access

9 those spreadsheets.

10 MR. MAJETTE: Okay. Aniruddh,

11 right? That's the correct pronunciation? 

12 Okay.

13 One of the things I have to admit,

14 you folks end up being the eyes and ears for

15 the Department because we are uploading lots

16 of documents, especially into regulations that

17 go. And a lot of times we may not see the

18 issue as far as if something is readable or

19 the link is working properly.

20 So, again, we appreciate any of

21 the emails that come in that tell us that

22 there is something not operating properly. 
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1 And as soon as we get that information, we try

2 to correct it as fast as possible.

3 So, the GRIM document probably

4 came up at like 5:32 p.m. yesterday. So, if

5 you haven't seen it, that's your fault now,

6 because it is on the site.

7 (Laughter.)

8 Okay. Well, just to make light of

9 it, we didn't realize that that link didn't

10 operate correctly.

11 Again, the Department has its

12 deadlines. And again, if there's pushback

13 that needs to be done, then the reason for

14 this public meeting is to understand the

15 rationale for that, and then, we can go back

16 to DOE brass to ask for a time extension, if

17 it is necessary.

18 Again, let's continue to listen to

19 the arguments for today, and realizing that

20 the test procedure is a large piece of it. 

21 Also, realizing that there are some of the

22 links that didn't function properly, when you
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1 couldn't get information; that those things

2 were repaired as fast as we found out about

3 it.

4 So, we know that those are

5 factors, and I would like to keep moving on,

6 knowing that that is an issue that we need to

7 look at.

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Andrew?

9 MR. DELASKI: Yes, I would just

10 say that I am sympathetic to the plights

11 described, that you know it is hard to

12 evaluate until you see the final test method,

13 and that you don't really know how much more

14 time you need until you see the final test

15 method because you don't know how different it

16 is, right? It may be that it is the proposed

17 rule, in which case you may be able to

18 evaluate it pretty quickly. It may be that

19 they kept all the AHRI's recommendations in

20 total, and that's also pretty easy to

21 evaluate. It is the in-between places that

22 may be harder to evaluate.
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1 So, it may be that not much more

2 time is needed. It may be that a lot more

3 time is needed. And that you don't know until

4 the rule is published.

5 So, I guess I would encourage the

6 Department to publish the test method final

7 rule as soon as humanly possible to enable

8 people to evaluate how much time they need.

9 The second point I would make is

10 that one thing that I don't I have thumbed

11 through here. There is another timing

12 question or staging issue that is not

13 addressed here, which is the effective date or

14 the compliance date of the rule.

15 The Department in the NOPR

16 proposes a compliance date which is five years

17 from the publication of the final rule, I

18 believe. And, you know, it just suggestsáthat

19 that is sort of the norm for this product

20 category.

21 And I suppose what has been done

22 there is to look at furnaces, and since
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1 furnaces had a five-year lead time at one

2 point, I would suggest to the Department that

3 there is a lot of latitude, and the Department

4 seems to acknowledge that it has a lot of

5 latitude on effective date for this rule. It

6 is really a question that is within the

7 Department's discretion, that three years is

8 a pretty typical lead time that we see in the

9 appliance standards world, and that the

10 Department should consider three years as a

11 potential lead time for this standard.

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane?

13 DR. JAKOBS: Actually, for

14 furnaces we have had eight. So, five is 

15 MR. DELASKI: I think your number

16 took effect.

17 (Laughter.)

18 For furnaces, it was five for the

19 first, I think, and eight for the second. So,

20 I mean, there are some standards that have

21 been as short as nine months, but not for

22 furnaces, I mind you, but I think it was a
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1 different category altogether.

2 My point is that there is a lot of

3 latitude and it is one of the points that DOE

4 has to consider in meeting its statutory

5 obligations, to maximize energy savings and

6 meet the criteria that you all described. It

7 is not a set term in this rulemaking. It is

8 one that is part of the Department's decision

9 making process.

10 MR. MAJETTE: Okay. Thanks a lot

11 for that.

12 At this point in time, I want to

13 go ahead and move on. And I guess we want to

14 go into the first large section, which would

15 be market assessment.

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: And we are

17 going to hear from Kevin Foley.

18 MR. MAJETTE: Yes.

19 MR. FOLEY: Is there any way you

20 can see it up here? Is there a way I can see

21 my presentation up here?

22 (Pause.)
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1 Okay. So, I'll be going over the

2 market assessment first. And the purpose of

3 the market assessment is to characterize the

4 market for the considered products.

5 So, DOE proposes to define a

6 furnace fan as any electrically-powered device

7 using residential ventilation and air

8 conditioning products for the purpose of

9 circulating air through ductwork. DOE uses

10 the furnace fan as shorthand for any of these

11 products.

12 It is important to note that DOE

13 recognizes that a significant number of

14 products may be encompassed by its

15 interpretation of the statutory language and

16 its corresponding definition.

17 So, this figure shows typical HVAC

18 system combinations, and each box represents

19 an HVAC component, and each chain represents

20 an HVAC system configuration.

21 And note the boxes outlined in red

22 represent space-conditioning products that
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1 include a furnace fan.

2 DR. JAKOBS: Could I ask a

3 question to clarify?

4 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane,

5 please.

6 DR. JAKOBS: Thank you.

7 So, we built something called an

8 air handler, and it is matched with a heat

9 pump. And it has stripping heat in it for

10 backup. And when Sam came to visit, we asked

11 to him clarify, and that it was not covered by

12 this. And that's my understanding. Could you

13 just say I'm right or I'm wrong or what you

14 think?

15 MR. FOLEY: Right, yes. Yes,

16 you're right. I think that actually might be

17 the next slide.

18 So, this next slide shows the

19 proposed scope of coverage in this current

20 NOPR, and it includes 63 percent of the

21 estimated sales of the space conditioning

22 products. That includes furnace fans.
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1 So, yes, the boxes outlined in

2 white show the products that are considered in

3 this rulemaking, and the boxes outlined in

4 black are the products not concerned in this

5 rulemaking.

6 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane?

7 DR. JAKOBS: So, when you say "not

8 in this rulemaking," does that mean in a

9 future rulemaking it could be or it's 

10 MR. FOLEY: So, yes, yes. That's

11 correct.

12 DR. JAKOBS: Okay. So, this is

13 related to the test procedure. And is it

14 possible that the test procedure might be

15 applied to an air handler at some time

16 someday? Because we're not really sure that

17 it applies that well.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: I'm looking

19 over to Sam, since he is our test procedure

20 guy.

21 DR. JAKOBS: Okay. He knows what

22 I'm talking about.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: So, go ahead.

2 MR. JASINSKI: Sam Jasinski,

3 Navigant Consulting.

4 So, in terms of the scope of

5 applicability of the test procedure,

6 obviously, the test procedure is being

7 developed simultaneously and with this

8 particular energy conservation standard in

9 mind.

10 So, at this time the scope of

11 applicability of the test procedure is only

12 intended for and, you know, your question

13 about whether or not it will ever be applied

14 to air handlers, I can't say yes or no. But,

15 without an energy conservation standard for

16 the products there, DOE will not require that

17 that test procedure be applied. So, there

18 would have to be a future energy conservation

19 standard developed for those products not

20 considered in this rulemaking, and then, it

21 would be the test procedure being developed

22 now could be considered for that, but it would
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1 not be required until there is a corresponding

2 energy conservation standard for those

3 products. And even then, it is not guaranteed

4 that that test procedure would be used.

5 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: We have an

6 additional question.

7 Please say your name.

8 MR. WAGNER: Greg Wagner.

9 So, I get clarity on this, the air

10 handler, if it has electric in it, it would be

11 covered under this standard? Does it have to

12 have the electric in it or provisions for it? 

13 How is that divided?

14 MR. JASINSKI: So, the proposed

15 definition tries to draw a very distinctive

16 line between a heat pump that has electric

17 resistance heating in it and maybe an electric

18 furnace. And that distinction is based on

19 whichever of those two heat sources is the

20 primary source of heat for the residence.

21 So, DOE expects that in a heat

22 pump that might have the electric resistance
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1 heating, the electrical resistance heating is

2 intended for extremely cold days when the

3 capacity of the heat pump in which they are

4 installed isn't sufficient. So, in that case,

5 the primary source of heat would be that heat

6 pump. And therefore, it would not be

7 considered an electric furnace or a modular

8 blower that could be converted to an electric

9 furnace, and would not be considered.

10 So, the products considered here

11 are electric furnaces are those where the

12 electric resistance heating are the primary

13 source of heating for the residence.

14 MR. WAGNER: So, it is already

15 installed, you're saying? Because these air

16 handlers aren't they're not heat pumps. 

17 The heat pump is the outdoor part of the

18 equation.

19 MR. JASINSKI: Okay. Well, in

20 that case, they would be defined as electric

21 furnaces, and they would be considered.

22 MR. WAGNER: So, it would be an
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1 electric furnace if it has electric installed?

2 MR. JASINSKI: Yes.

3 MR. WAGNER: Not necessarily just

4 as an option to add that later?

5 MR. JASINSKI: If the electric is

6 not installed, it would be classified as a

7 modular blower, and those are also considered

8 in this rulemaking.

9 MR. WAGNER: I'm talking about a

10 condensing coil as welláas a blower.

11 MR. JASINSKI: Okay.

12 MR. WAGNER: Which could have

13 provisions oftentimes to have electric heat in

14 it.

15 According to this slide, I was

16 thinking that it was excluded in that big

17 purple section.

18 MR. JASINSKI: Okay. It would

19 have to be installed in that case. And when

20 you are pairing that air handler with an

21 outdoor unit, that outdoor unit typically

22 provides heat, correct? It would be 
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1 MR. WAGNER: Not necessarily. 

2 MR. JASINSKI: Not necessarily?

3 MR. WAGNER: Some are

4 air-conditioning-only; some are for heat pump

5 use.

6 MR. JASINSKI: Okay.

7 MR. WAGNER: So, a question is,

8 which bucket is that in, the purple one or the

9 other bucket?

10 MR. JASINSKI: If it is an air

11 handler that has electric resistance heating

12 installed and is the primary source of heating

13 for the residence, it is considered. It would

14 be defined as an electric furnace and would be

15 considered in this rulemaking.

16 MR. WAGNER: Okay. But anything

17 without that installed wouldn't?

18 MR. JASINSKI: Right.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Terry? And

20 then, to Don.

21 MR. SMALL: Terry Small, Mortex.

22 Sam, when you say "installed," do
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1 you mean factory installed or field installed? 

2 Because most manufacturers offer the strip

3 heat, even if it is supplementary in a kit

4 form.

5 MR. JASINSKI: Factory installed.

6 MR. SMALL: I think that is just

7 misguided definitely, because I don't think

8 very many people you know, when you think

9 about it, I would want, if I am in Alaska and

10 I have a heat pump, my supplemental heat, I

11 may want a bigger strip heat capacity in that

12 situation than if I'm in Key West, Florida.

13 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Charlie

14 Stephens?

15 MR. STEPHENS: I think I would

16 like to point out, from lots and lots of years

17 out in the field watching all this be done,

18 that whether or not a heat pump outdoor unit

19 is the kind of resource of heat or the

20 electric furnace on the indoor with strip heat

21 is the primary source of heat for the

22 residence is actually determined by the
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1 contractor who installs it with or without an

2 outdoor unit.

3 So, this is not a factory thing. 

4 These units show up set up for strip heat. 

5 The strip heat is often actually changed or

6 installed by the contractor. You know, it is

7 sized for the heat pump installation, you

8 know, 15 or 20 kW, whatever it needs. And it

9 is either staged or it is not staged. But the

10 fact is it is the contractor who figures out

11 whether this is an electric forced-air furnace

12 or a heat pump system. So, I don't know how

13 you are going to fix that, but it doesn't

14 happen at the factory.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Harvey Sachs?

16 MR. SACHS: Sam, following up on

17 Charlie's comments, which immediately came to

18 mind as this discussion came up, it seems to

19 me that we have converted an engineering

20 discussion to theological argument. And this

21 is nuts.

22 The basic air, to me, the
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1 legislation was not designed or intended, as

2 I recall the conversations, to exclude the

3 heat pump. And if the heat pump were included

4 in this, then these discussions about whether

5 the wiring for the strip was put in at the

6 factory was left to the contractor to mangle,

7 and I'm not referring to the ACCA members, but

8 those of the unwatched who are not part of

9 Charlie's organization or the equivalent.

10 But this discussion has shown that

11 the underlying decision was, in my opinion,

12 ill-considered and flat-out wrong.

13 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Steven

14 Rosenstock?

15 Don, go ahead. Don?

16 MR. BRUNDAGE: I'm more confused

17 now than before.

18 So, what you are saying, based on

19 your current definition, is that if it is a

20 standard split system, gas furnace with

21 central air, it would be covered under this

22 rulemaking. If it is a heat pump, defining
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1 the heat pump in some way based on the amount

2 of strip versus capacity of the heat pump

3 unit, if it is a true heat pump unit, it would

4 not be included in this rulemaking? Is that

5 correct?

6 MR. JASINSKI: Correct.

7 MR. SACHS: But, as a follow-on to

8 thatá 

9 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Go head,

10 Harvey. Go ahead, Harvey.

11 MR. SACHS: This is Harvey Sachs.

12 If, instead of that evaporator

13 condenser indoor coil, I had an air-over water

14 coil, a hydronic coil, then the system would

15 be considered a modular boiler and included? 

16 No?

17 MR. JASINSKI: Hydronic air

18 handlers are not considered in this

19 rulemaking.

20 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Thank

21 you, Sam.

22 MR. SACHS: So, we are purists. 
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1 And unless there is fossil fuel combusted, it

2 is not a furnace fan, even though it is

3 designed to move heated air through ductwork?

4 MR. JASINSKI: Correct. But,

5 again 

6 MR. SACHS: Thanks for explaining

7 that.

8 MR. JASINSKI: Sure.

9 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Sam 

10 MR. SACHS: All of the electric

11 furnace, too. I'm sorry, I as confused as

12 Don.

13 MR. JASINSKI: Electric furnaces

14 and modular blowers also.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Sam, do you

16 want to clarify or did you just clarify?

17 MR. JASINSKI: Yes.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

19 Yes, Steve Rosenstock?

20 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

21 EEI.

22 To follow-on, I agree with the
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1 assessment because, especially when you're

2 talking about a split system, central air

3 conditioner and heat pumps, since everyone

4 knows what they are, that fan energy has been

5 covered under the CO or EER or HSPF ratings. 

6 Manufacturers have made decisions in terms of

7 how they are going to meet the 8.2 HSPF, how

8 they are going to meet the 14 SEER versus the

9 10 SEER just a few years ago.

10 The fan energy is part of that

11 equation. The manufacturer have already

12 decided, made decisions in terms of improving

13 the energy efficiency of those systems,

14 including the fan energy efficiency already

15 back in the early nineties, in 2006, and

16 upcoming in 2015. So, yes, I do agree with

17 this assessment, and there should be

18 exclusions because the manufacturer has

19 already had to do improvements in the

20 efficiency.

21 Thank you.

22 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Don Brundage?
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1 MR. BRUNDAGE: And while the

2 definition is kind of convoluted, while I

3 might not agree with all, I agree with the

4 concept of it because the energy is already

5 covered on a heat pump under the SEER and HSPF

6 rating.

7 And the statute you are quoting

8 says the Secretary will consider prescribed

9 energy standards for electricity used for

10 purposes of circulating air through ductwork. 

11 But if it is already covered under another

12 efficiency standard, I don't take that as a

13 mandate that they have to regulate that if it

14 is already regulated.

15 MR. SACHS: This is Harvey Sachs.

16 And I'm sorry, but I was a little

17 bit involved in that process. And I think

18 that's and I'm speaking to my good friends

19 and colleagues, both Steve and Don, on this 

20 I think this is a moot point.

21 The legislation says that we will

22 regulate furnace fans; that they are
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1 implicitly covered was not something that

2 motivated Congress. DOE has a job to do, and

3 I don't think that doing this aspect of the

4 theology is going to help us. End of rant.

5 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Final

6 comments on scheduled coverage? This is

7 important. Let's get it out here right now. 

8 Any additional and final comments before we

9 move on?

10 (No response.)

11 Nothing more? Oh, Diane?

12 DR. JAKOBS: I just brought it

13 upá 

14 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: I know.

15 (Laughter.)

16 DR. JAKOBS: But, I mean, it was

17 clear from Sam's explanation to me; it was

18 like two summers ago, but we rate a heat pump

19 system and we match them, and we publish

20 ratings. But we have no control if a

21 distributor buys them and matches up pieces we

22 didn't intend to go together, you know.
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1 So, we are very concerned about

2 what we needed to test, how we needed to test. 

3 We actually have the strip heat is a module. 

4 so, are we going to have to match up every air

5 handler fan with every set of strip, resistant

6 heat strips?

7 So, it is important to us, so we

8 know what to test and how to test it, how to

9 label it. You know, we need to nail this

10 down. And I'm quite happy to go with what Sam

11 said.

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

13 John Cymbalsky?

14 MR. CYMBALSKY: This is John

15 Cymbalsky, DOE.

16 So, we have AHRI and we have HR

17 members here, and I know you certify these

18 products, combinations, to AHRI. So, maybe

19 you can explain to the room how you go about

20 doing that now.

21 MR. VERSHAW: So, we rate them

22 very well, of course.
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1 (Laughter.)

2 And we follow the Department's

3 rules.

4 (Laughter.)

5 MR. CYMBALSKY: Right. So, the

6 specific example Diane provided was these

7 strip heat things. And I guess I'm curious 

8 MR. VERSHAW: The electric heat

9 pump comes into the HSPF calculation when you

10 test at 17 and when you do defrost testing. 

11 Because you test it at 47. You test at 35. 

12 You test at 17. And the unit will defrost in

13 35. And they know how much strip heat is in

14 there and how much you can't make up, based on

15 the DOE procedures, and the watts for the

16 blower is measured throughout all the

17 different tests.

18 And on the cooling side, again,

19 you test it at 95 and 82 and 67, and you

20 measure the blower watts, each one of those

21 conditions.

22 I think the issue here, just to be
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1 blunt, is that there are some people who don't

2 think the static pressures we run those at is

3 appropriate. And as a result, now we are

4 looking at higher static pressures with the

5 fan efficiency rule to make up for that fact

6 that we haven't been able to change the other

7 rules to get to a higher static pressure.

8 So, now we are kind of saying,

9 okay, you've got to design for HSPF and SEER

10 based on these rules, but this indoor product

11 has to also operate way up here, which most of

12 your furnaces aren't rated that high. And we

13 have got to measure the fan efficiency up at

14 that level as well. And that is where we get

15 all the confluence of all these different

16 rules getting on top of everything.

17 And you couple that with there is

18 going to be a change in the furnace efficiency

19 rule sometime in the future, and it is going

20 to fall right on top of the fan efficiency

21 thing. How do we run all the tests and get it

22 all figured out in the right timeframe, so
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1 that we still have products to sell to

2 customers?

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Hang on one

4 second.

5 I would like to hear any other

6 manufacturer who would like to add onto Jim's

7 comments or elucidate. Any additional

8 comments in that stream and content?

9 Yes, please? Your name?

10 MR. CLARK: Gary Clark from

11 Goodman.

12 Just the one thing that I find

13 confusing about this, where this started on

14 the air handlers versus electric furnace, you

15 know, as a manufacturer, what it sounds like

16 is that people think that this air handler is

17 different if it is matched with an air

18 conditioner versus being matched with a heat

19 pump. We manufacture one product.

20 And as Charlie mentioned, in the

21 field the contractor decides whether the

22 outdoor unit is an air conditioner or whether
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1 the outdoor unit is a heat pump, but it is the

2 same air handler.

3 And so, as Jim has talked about

4 and Diane, we already do a lot of electric fan

5 testing in our heat pump testing to make sure

6 that it is you know, of course, all the DOE

7 regulations, and it is safe.

8 So, hopefully, just trying to

9 clarify. This is exact same product, and

10 depending on what it gets matched with defines

11 whether it is an electric furnace or a heat

12 pump air handler.

13 So, when you start trying to carve

14 that up and say it's included or not included,

15 we feel, of course, because the preponderance

16 of cases, it is used as a heat pump air

17 handler, that it is already covered by

18 legislation.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Harvey Sachs. 

20 Oh, pardon me. Yes, go ahead, Terry.

21 MR. SMALL: Well, I would like to

22 add to what Gary just said, that because it is
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1 sort of a contractor decision, most of these

2 units will go out with zero kW. I know as an

3 independent coil manufacturer and blower coil

4 manufacturer, you know, we leave that

5 decision, basically, to the contractor as to

6 how much strip heat he is putting into it.

7 What I gather from Sam, that

8 basically if it goes out with zero kW strip

9 heat, and it may have a coil in it, is it

10 still going to be considered a modular blower?

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Sam?

12 MR. JASINSKI: Sam Jasinski,

13 Navigant Consulting.

14 No. If there is a cooling coil in

15 it, I believe that the proposed definition of

16 modular blower excludes anything that has

17 cooling or heating included.

18 So, essentially, a modular blower

19 is a box with a fan in it. That's essentially

20 the definition of modular blower. If you add

21 electric resistance heating to it, and that is

22 the primary source of heat, that becomes an
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1 electric furnace. If you add a coil that

2 provides heating or cooling to that, it will

3 not be considered. That would be considered

4 a blower coil unit and would be in that big

5 slice of the darked-out pie.

6 MR. SMALL: Sam, I think where you

7 are getting confused, or somebody is getting

8 confused, is I have never heard of modular

9 strip heat. I have heard of a modular blower

10 going with a modular coil, a blower going with

11 a coil. It is for convenience. It is in two

12 pieces. Maybe it is easier to get into the

13 attic, or whatever.

14 I really believe that modular

15 blowers should be excluded from this. The

16 chances they are going to end up in a

17 standalone electric furnace are very slim.

18 If anybody has some comments about

19 that? Modular blower, modular coil; I have

20 never heard of a modular heat. So, modular

21 blower, modular heat, it is modular coil,

22 modular blower in a cooling or a heat pump
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1 situation.

2 I think you should exclude modular

3 blowers from this rulemaking.

4 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: I thought if

5 we discussed this for a while, we might

6 detangle this. But it looks as though we

7 might need to just rely on the written

8 comments, the detailed written comments that

9 come in from everyone.

10 I will entertain a few comments

11 before we move on.

12 Harvey Sachs?

13 MR. SACHS: Harvey Sachs, ACEEE.

14 I just want to try to amplify a

15 little bit of the history of the issue that

16 Jim VerShaw has raised of having to rate at

17 low static for the air conditioner and high

18 static for the furnace fan.

19 This unpleasant result came out

20 of, among other things, the discussions that

21 led to the consensus agreement on regional

22 standards for air conditioners, furnaces, and
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1 heat pumps, when the environmental advocates

2 came in with a wishlist that included changing

3 external static for the air conditioners.

4 And the manufacturers responded

5 that that would simply be a linear translation

6 and degradation of SEER across all products,

7 and therefore, it was not worth doing. And

8 that is the reason we wound up with this

9 effort to get the furnace fans rated under

10 conditions that represent field use.

11 And Charlie Stephens and lots of

12 other people, John Proctor and lots of others

13 have contributed to the understanding that

14 field installations of ductwork are typically

15 at least a half-inch of external static. They

16 are far beyond double what the naive

17 assumptions were when the test procedure was

18 originally set up.

19 So, I think we would certainly be

20 open eventually to revisiting why we have

21 wound up in this odd situation, but I am not

22 sure what we can do about it now.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you.

2 We're about to move on here. 

3 Final comments perhaps briefly.

4 Andrew?

5 MR. DELASKI: A question for the

6 manufacturers, which is, to what extent, as

7 you are preparing for the it may not be

8 answerable now, but as you are preparing for

9 the 2015 standards for air conditioners and

10 heat pumps, to what extent are products that

11 meet those levels using BPMs today? Is that

12 a pretty common configuration, uncommon, orá 

13 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Gary, would

14 you use the microphone?

15 MR. CLARK: I'm sorry. Gary Clark

16 from Goodman.

17 I think, for competitive reasons,

18 it is probably not something that should be

19 discussed.

20 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

21 Jim?

22 MR. VERSHAW: Well, Jim VerShaw.
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1 You could probably look at today's

2 ratings because 13 is going to go away.

3 MR. DELASKI: Right, right.

4 MR. VERSHAW: And you could

5 determine from that what it is. My guess is

6 it is not going to be significantly different.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Dave?

8 MR. WINNINGHAM: You know, just to

9 Gary's point, I think it is somewhat

10 application-specific. But, for the base 13

11 and 14 SEER single-stage equipment, you're

12 defined that it has to be coil-only rating. 

13 So, that rating will be derived off of that

14 base default watt, as it is today.

15 How a person would design products

16 beyond that or package equipment, that isn't

17 relevant to that. It is subject to whatever

18 a manufacturer's strategy might be.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: I want to

20 return to Kevin. Kevin, let's keep pressing

21 on with the content.

22 MR. FOLEY: All right. So, moving
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1 on here, the eight proposed product classes

2 that represent most of the energy use

3 associated with furnace fans, it is important

4 to note that DOE differentiated between

5 product classes based on internal structure

6 and application-specific differences that

7 impact furnace fan energy consumption.

8 So, for example, the presence of

9 an additional heat exchanger and condensing

10 versus non-condensing falls into that internal

11 structure category, and then, weatherized

12 versus non-weatherized falls into that

13 application-specific design differences.

14 This table shows the product

15 classes that DOE could directly analyze and

16 the three product classes that DOE had to

17 extrapolate. Basically, DOE didn't have any

18 baseline data for those three extrapolated

19 product classes. So, we needed to use the

20 baseline extrapolated data from those

21 directly-analyzed product classes.

22 And DOE did find two additional
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1 product classes with active models in the AHRI

2 appliance directory, and those are

3 manufactured home, weatherized, non-condensing

4 gas furnace fans, and manufactured home,

5 non-weatherized, non-condensing oil furnace

6 fans.

7 But due to a limited number of

8 basic models for these two product classes,

9 DOE did not have data to directly analyze and

10 consider establishing standards for these

11 product classes. So, at this point, DOE

12 proposes to reserve standards for those two

13 product classes until sufficient data becomes

14 available.

15 Yes?

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Aniruddh?

17 MR. ROY: My name Roy, AHRI.

18 Kevin, how were you able to

19 establish market share based on your review of

20 the AHRI directory? Could you get into the

21 details of how you were able to do that?

22 MR. FOLEY: From this one?
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1 MR. ROY: Yes. Well, this one. 

2 You know, on page 3 3 of the Market and

3 Technology Assessment chapter it does list

4 AHRI as a reference of how you derived the

5 market share. I'm just curious to learn or to

6 know how these numbers were attained.

7 Because if you go to the AHRI

8 directory, it doesn't give any market share. 

9 It just lists units 

10 MR. FOLEY: Right.

11 MR. ROY: and their

12 corresponding certificates. And if you go on

13 ahrinet.org, the historical data broken down

14 for furnaces is just broken down by gas and

15 oil furnaces, and it doesn't break it down

16 into any further categories.

17 MR. FOLEY: Right. I think we

18 used a variety of different sources for that,

19 and a lot of it actually came from the

20 shipment analysis that will be presented

21 later. So, it is not just from the AHRI

22 directory.
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1 MR. ROY: Okay.

2 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Charlie?

3 MR. McCRUDDEN: Charlie McCrudden,

4 Air Conditioning Contractors of America.

5 So, this is, I guess, to slide 17. 

6 So, these proposed product classes, they are

7 unique to this standard?

8 MR. FOLEY: Uh hum.

9 MR. McCRUDDEN: And they don't

10 overlap with the furnace standards?

11 MR. FOLEY: I think they overlap

12 with the furnace standards.

13 MR. McCRUDDEN: I'm sorry?

14 MR. FOLEY: I think they do

15 overlap with the furnace standards.

16 MR. McCRUDDEN: But what I am

17 saying, the product categories. So, in the

18 furnace standard, we have got non-weatherized,

19 weatherized, mobile home 

20 MR. FOLEY: Right.

21 MR. McCRUDDEN: Is manufactured

22 home mobile home?
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1 MR. FOLEY: Yes.

2 MR. McCRUDDEN: Okay. Okay. All

3 right.

4 MR. CYMBALSKY: They map into

5 those furnace products.

6 MR. McCRUDDEN: They do? Okay.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: John, do you

8 want to say that? I think say it on the

9 record.

10 MR. CYMBALSKY: "Overlap" is not

11 the word I would use. They map into the

12 product classes from furnaces.

13 MR. McCRUDDEN: Thank you. That

14 was it.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. 

16 Additional and final comments on the market

17 assessment slide?

18 Just to be clear, when you say

19 "reserved standards," what does that mean?

20 MR. FOLEY: We are reserving space

21 for them now, but we are not prescribing any

22 standards for them at this point.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

2 Yes, Steve Rosenstock?

3 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock.

4 Yes, so there is no proposed

5 standard for these products under this

6 proposed rule?

7 MR. FOLEY: Correct.

8 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Thank you.

9 MR. FOLEY: That is correct.

10 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Thanks

11 for that clarification.

12 MR. CYMBALSKY: But they remain

13 covered.

14 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you,

15 John Cymbalsky.

16 It is now 10:30. Let's take a

17 break, which means we will resume at 10:45

18 here in this room. You must wear a badge

19 visible on your person above the waist in the

20 Department of Energy when you walk in the

21 halls.

22 So, the restrooms are at both ends
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1 of the hall. There is a coffee shop on the

2 ground floor. Take the elevator down to the

3 ground floor.

4 Go quickly if you're going for

5 coffee. Sometimes they move slowly.

6 And some of this complicated

7 stuff, we have made a good start on it this

8 morning, and we are going to keep going.

9 We'll see you back here at 10:45.

10 (Whereupon, the foregoing matter

11 went off the record at 10:29 a.m. and went

12 back on the record at 10:46 a.m.)

13 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Please

14 take your seats. Let's resume.

15 One procedural matter. The

16 check-in this morning didn't go as it

17 typically it does. Typically, when you check

18 in, the Department would like to receive a

19 business card from you. They compile a list

20 of the business cards, all the attendees. So,

21 if you haven't yet given a business card to

22 Brenda, please pull one out of your pocket and
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1 give it to her, and then, the Department will

2 compile a list of all the attendees. Okay? 

3 So, please do that.

4 Who hasn't handed in a business

5 card? Please pull one out. Okay.

6 Okay. So, then, we are going to

7 proceed where we left off with Kevin and

8 engineering analysis.

9 MR. FOLEY: All right. So, moving

10 on to the engineering analysis, all right, so

11 DOE considered six technology options in the

12 engineering analysis. They are listed here. 

13 I am sure you guys have all seen this.

14 They range from more efficient

15 motors to multi-staging.

16 (Interruption by noise unrelated

17 to the meeting.)

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: We are

19 working on it.

20 (Laughter.)

21 I think you can still proceed,

22 Kevin. Keep going.
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1 MR. FOLEY: In the engineering

2 analysis, DOE evaluated technologies that

3 reduce fan energy consumption and characterize

4 the relationship between manufactured cost and

5 energy consumption reduction.

6 So, this just shows that the

7 output of the engineering analysis is this

8 cost-efficiency relationship. And that feeds

9 into downstream analyses.

10 Going back to FER, the proposed

11 rating metric, as you talked about, is the fan

12 energy rating, which is the estimated annual

13 electrical energy consumption normalized by

14 the airflow and the maximum airflow control

15 setting and the estimated annual operating

16 hours.

17 And it is written down below. 

18 Again, it is the sum, in all the modes, the

19 operating hours times the power consumption,

20 divided by the sum of all the operating hours

21 in all the modes or sorry the operating

22 hours in all the modes times the maximum
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1 airflow.

2 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Jim, do you

3 want to comment here?

4 MR. VERSHAW: Yes. Jim VerShaw. 

5 A couple of comments. Well, it's the next

6 slide.

7 But why did you choose to

8 normalize on Qmax when this is really a

9 heating product efficiency? Because what I

10 can do now is I can design all my furnaces

11 with 5 tons of cooling airflow and drive the

12 FERs down by using lower speeds on heating.

13 I have got product, I have got

14 six, right now, I have got six PSC furnaces in

15 three different cabinet widths with four

16 different cooling widths. And the 6-ton

17 furnaces, which use the most energy in

18 heating, have the lowest FERs.

19 MR. FOLEY: So, I will defer that

20 to Sam.

21 MR. JASINSKI: Sam Jasinski,

22 Navigant Consulting.
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1 So, to address the first part of

2 your question about why Qmax, and you stated

3 that why Qmax or cooling when this is a

4 heating product. The answer to that is that

5 this is a fan regulation, and it is not

6 specific to the heating function of the fans. 

7 It is intended to cover all functions of the

8 fan, which include ventilation, cooling, and

9 heating.

10 And Qmax was picked specifically

11 because it is tied to the heating, most

12 closely tied to the heating and cooling

13 capacity or the cooling capacity of the

14 furnace which DOE finds is the driver in

15 designing most of these products.

16 I'm sorry, can you repeat the

17 second part of your question again?

18 MR. VERSHAW: Everybody keeps

19 asking me to repeat, and I can't remember what

20 I said.

21 (Laughter.)

22 What I never saw discussed, and
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1 I'm going to change what I said a little bit,

2 what I never saw discussed was the effect of

3 heat-to-cool ratios in various cabinet widths. 

4 And the wider cabinets with the same heating

5 as input with more cooling capacity end up

6 with lower FERs.

7 MR. JASINSKI: Oh, okay, I do

8 recall now. You said and correct me if I'm

9 wrong that you could just design your

10 furnace fans all at 5 tons to drive up Qmax

11 and drive down FER.

12 MR. VERSHAW: Uh hum.

13 MR. JASINSKI: I don't have

14 specific data in front of me. But knowing

15 what I know about the cubic relationship of

16 the power consumption of the fan and airflow,

17 even if you did that, as Qmax would increase

18 with the speed, the power consumption that is

19 included in the numerator would increase more

20 rapidly. So, I am not certain that that's

21 always accurate.

22 MR. VERSHAW: And you can look at
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1 data separately, yes.

2 MR. JASINSKI: Sure. Like I said,

3 I don't have the data in front of me. So, I'm

4 not sure that that is always accurate, but it

5 is not as cut and dry as you can simply

6 increase Qmax to reduce FER overall.

7 And then, to address your final

8 comment about, what about the impacts of the

9 different cabinet sizes and different fan

10 sizes, as you will see later on, one of the

11 major changes between the preliminary analysis

12 and the NOPR is that DOE, instead of proposing

13 singular FER values as the standards, is now

14 proposing standard levels of FER as a function

15 of capacity, which includes and accounts for

16 those impacts of airflow path design in terms

17 of putting higher-capacity units in smaller or

18 larger envelopes.

19 MR. VERSHAW: Well, actually, but

20 you assumed the straight line instead of the

21 cubic equation, also. And the reason you

22 could do a straight line is the scatter on the
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1 data is so great because of the effect of

2 cabinet size and heat/cool ratios, that you

3 can draw a straight line through it. But, if

4 you really got into the details, technically,

5 it wouldn't be.

6 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Don Brundage?

7 MR. BRUNDAGE: I don't pretend to

8 be an expert on all this, but, in reality,

9 this is a manufacturer standard on what is

10 shipped out the door on fans. And that fan

11 could be used in any number of different sizes

12 or capacity of units in real life.

13 And sticking the Qmax in there

14 just seems to me to be opportunities for

15 gaming. Because if you have something that

16 was rated as a fan for a 5-ton unit and you

17 use it on a 3-ton unit, I mean, it seems like

18 that fundamentally fan inefficiency ought to

19 be in terms of energy used to move "X" volume

20 of air, and not with the heating part thrown

21 in there.

22 Thank you.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Charlie

2 Stephens?

3 MR. STEPHENS: Yes, I just wanted

4 to clarify. I know the test procedure isn't

5 final, and I don't mean to take us back there.

6 (Laughter.)

7 But tell me if I remember

8 correctly. The external static, in order to

9 simplify the test procedure, is set at Qmax. 

10 So, you set those external static conditions

11 at Qmax, and then, external static floats for

12 the tests in the other fan flows, right?

13 MR. JASINSKI: Correct.

14 MR. STEPHENS: Okay. Just

15 checking on that.

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane?

17 DR. JAKOBS: So, this is Diane

18 Jakobs.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Get close to

20 the microphone.

21 DR. JAKOBS: Sorry.

22 One of the things confusing about
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1 it is the furnace fan isn't really a

2 component. It is not like my scarf and I can

3 wear it with six outfits, you know. We have

4 to combine them. They are in a specific unit. 

5 We have safety standards we have to meet, and

6 we have the AFUE for furnace that we have to

7 meet.

8 So, it is not really completely

9 independent of the application. There are a

10 number of other tests and requirements that we

11 have to meet in order to be categorized as a

12 furnace fan.

13 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. 

14 Aniruddh?

15 MR. ROY: Aniruddh Roy, AHRI.

16 Sam, this is a question for you. 

17 So, the slide, as a point of clarification,

18 that HH in the denominator is actually 830,

19 right?

20 MR. JASINSKI: Yes.

21 MR. ROY: Okay. So, it just needs

22 to be changed to 
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1 MR. JASINSKI: Yes.

2 Kevin, why don't you go to the

3 next slide? It shows a couple of different

4 variations of the FER equation.

5 MR. FOLEY: Yes, the webinar

6 closed, and we are trying it back running.

7 MR. JASINSKI: Okay.

8 MR. VERSHAW: All right. While

9 they are looking at that, the next slide does

10 show, if you have a multi-stage product, you

11 can use the ratio of low-to-high capacity on

12 heating multiplied times 830 and use the low

13 power for your furnace. But we normalize on

14 830.

15 And what I heard you say earlier

16 was that you didn't like the way it came out

17 when you did that, so you changed it. Now, if

18 you were an engineer in my organization, I

19 would send you back to your desk, "Come back

20 with a technical reason why you can normalize

21 it that way." And I was hoping you could give

22 us a better definition or explanation of that.
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1 MR. JASINSKI: Sure. Sam

2 Jasinski, Navigant Consulting.

3 So, it wasn't as simple as we

4 didn't like the way it looked. We have a

5 number of different sources of information

6 that we generated as many FER values as we

7 possibly could.

8 Those sources of information

9 include very limited amounts of public product

10 literature that actually include electrical

11 energy consumption, which would enable us to

12 calculate FER. So, some FER data from there.

13 The other are in confidential

14 comments submitted to DOE. So, we can't share

15 that specific data.

16 And then, another avenue for that

17 are the manufacturer interviews, which are

18 also under NDA. So, we can't divulge that raw

19 information, either.

20 So, when we say we didn't like the

21 way it looked, what we actually are doing is

22 comparing what we have heard from
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1 manufacturers, what we have seen in

2 manufacturer data, public data and

3 confidential data, and comparing that to the

4 results of our analysis of all these FER

5 values.

6 And what we found is that, when

7 HCR is included in the denominator, it roughly

8 estimates the improvement, reduction in FER,

9 for multi-staging at 30 percent. What we

10 heard during manufacturer interviews is that

11 that should actually be closer to 10 or even

12 maybe 15 percent.

13 So, obviously, FER was

14 overestimating that, based on our comparison

15 of what we have heard, what we have seen in

16 manufacturer data, but more importantly is

17 that the metric is intended to be proportional

18 to our estimation of annual energy

19 consumption.

20 If you compare a multi-stage unit

21 to a single-stage unit using a different

22 denominator, which would happen if the HCR was
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1 included in the denominator, that wouldn't

2 happen. And that is the mathematical reason

3 that FER, with HCR in the denominator,

4 overestimates that reduction.

5 Once DOE eliminated HCR from the

6 denominator and used a consistent denominator

7 to normalize when comparing single-stage FER

8 values to multi-stage FER values, that

9 reduction in FER and estimated annual energy

10 consumption went down to the levels that were

11 consistent with our comparisons and what we

12 heard from manufacturers.

13 MR. VERSHAW: Well, the problem we

14 are having is that we have got modulating

15 furnaces with ECM motors and 40 to 100

16 percent, and they don't make the new standard

17 across every model. They would if you had

18 done the other. If we had done it the way we

19 thought it was going in, until the NOPR came

20 out on the test procedure, and that falls in

21 line for condensing furnaces, non-condensing

22 furnaces, and package units, you are not even
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1 close.

2 I mean, we have got

3 top-of-the-line way up there, and they are not

4 going to make it. And I am really concerned

5 that there has been a miss technically here,

6 when we can't use the top-of-the-line units

7 we have today aren't making the proposed

8 model. So, I think there are errors in the

9 analysis beyond the denominator/numerator

10 thing.

11 MR. JASINSKI: Thank you.

12 Obviously, the Department of

13 Energy will take that comment very seriously. 

14 But, in order to help the Department of Energy

15 fix any of those potential errors, if you can

16 provide FER data for these products that are

17 not making the standard, we can include those

18 in our analyses and adjust them.

19 And beyond that, once we go

20 through the engineering analysis and we talk

21 about the methodology that we used to come up

22 with our equations for the standard levels, if
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1 there are improvements to that methodology or

2 the numbers that are used in that methodology,

3 comments to that effect and what they should

4 be, and how it should be done, that would be

5 very helpful.

6 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Let me just

7 make a note. Those of you that are joining us

8 via the web, our apologies. We have had

9 several technical problems with the web

10 broadcast access this morning.

11 I know a few of you have been

12 trying to get into this conversation. 

13 Perhaps, Karen Meyers, I guess you have had

14 your hand raised for a while. Can you see if

15 this works? Karen, speak clearly. You're on. 

16 Unmute your phone.

17 (No audible response.)

18 No success. Okay. Well, we will

19 return to Karen and anyone else that wants to

20 get in shortly.

21 Diane?

22 DR. JAKOBS: Well, I calculated it
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1 the old way and the new way. And for our

2 modulating furnace, it increased the FER 20

3 percent and the two-stage 10 percent.

4 And so, the only ones that would

5 pass your proposed regulated values had an ECM

6 and multi-staging. So, that is where we ended

7 up.

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Dave?

9 MR. WINNINGHAM: This is Dave with

10 Allied, Lennox.

11 We found similar results.

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you.

13 Yes?

14 MR. CLARK: And this is Gary Clark

15 from Goodman Manufacturing, just reiterating

16 kind of the same situation for our products

17 also.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Thank

19 you. That's good. That's very helpful. 

20 Thank you.

21 And the data, as Sam suggested,

22 and your written comments, even more helpful. 
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1 So, the Department will look forward to

2 receiving those data.

3 I'm ready to move on.

4 MR. FOLEY: Okay. So, I'm on

5 slideá 

6 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Oh, wait a

7 second.

8 Jim, did you exhaust your comments

9 on the FER equation?

10 MR. VERSHAW: For now.

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: For now.

12 Move on.

13 MR. FOLEY: Okay. So, I'll move

14 on past this slide. I think Sam actually went

15 over most of this.

16 So, moving to slide 25, DOE

17 incorporated the following list of sources in

18 the engineering analysis. So, product

19 literature, Appliance Magazine, AHRI, GAMA,

20 manufacturer interviews, product teardowns,

21 manufacturing cost modeling, and finally,

22 product energy testing.
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1 And DOE acquired data from

2 specification sheets, testing, and teardowns

3 to assist in developing the FER values and the

4 cost models.

5 DOE had about 200 units, six

6 manufacturers represented, ranging from 800 to

7 2200 CFM nominal airflow capacity, various

8 motor types, various heat exchanger types,

9 non-condensing, condensing, various fan

10 housing designs, multi-stage and single-stage

11 heating and weatherized and non-weatherized

12 units.

13 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Terry?

14 MR. SMALL: Any modular blowers?

15 MR. FOLEY: Yes. Yes, we did.

16 Moving on, the cost/efficiency

17 curve was developed in four steps. First, DOE

18 developed the baseline, then developed the

19 efficiency pathway. Calculated the cost. And

20 then, generated the cost/efficiency curves.

21 So, DOE selected baseline models

22 typical of the least-efficient furnace fans
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1 using commercially-available residential HVAC

2 models. And across all product classes, the

3 baseline furnace fan includes a PSC motor with

4 three or fewer airflow control settings, a

5 forward-curve impeller, a standard sheet metal

6 fan housing.

7 So, DOE reviewed all available FER

8 values based on data from the preliminary

9 analysis and new data, and as Sam said,

10 concluded that FER can best be represented as

11 a linear function of airflow capacity, which

12 is actually that equation in the graph there. 

13 FER equals slope times capacity plus the Y

14 intercept.

15 So, DOE first determined the slope

16 of the linear function by looking at multiple

17 series of models of non-weatherized gas,

18 non-condensing and non-weatherized gas,

19 condensing furnaces. And DOE found that the

20 slopes for these various series were similar

21 and that the average of these slopes was 5.7

22 in FER.
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1 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Question?

2 MR. FOLEY: Yes.

3 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

4 Edison Electric Institute.

5 I know you are probably grouping

6 some things together. How many datapoints

7 went into each of these series?

8 MR. FOLEY: Yes. So, this is just

9 a stylized graph. It is obviously not it. I

10 see we had four or five series for each

11 product class. So, then, maybe 20 datapoints

12 for each product class.

13 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Twenty

14 datapoints? Okay. Thank you.

15 MR. FOLEY: Twenty to 30 or so.

16 MR. VERSHAW: Jim VerShaw.

17 You know, it is difficult to get,

18 especially on PSC motors, data on watts

19 because nobody publishes it, and it is

20 difficult for the manufacturers to figure out

21 where FERs are because these are not normally

22 test points that we test at.
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1 However, when we have dug into the

2 our product was put out starting in '91. 

3 So, it goes back a ways, and we had to dig

4 into the airflow data that we had taken.

5 And condensing or non-condensing

6 furnaces, yes, I guess you could draw a line

7 through there to kind of match the slope,

8 albeit, it was below your baseline.

9 And the fact is we have four taps

10 on all of our motors, not three. I don't know

11 if that makes a difference or not. But all of

12 ours were lower than that, which says, then,

13 when you put a 40- or 50-percent reduction

14 from baseline, we can't get there because

15 there is another problem with the CTM motor

16 power, which we will get to in another slide

17 here.

18 And then, on the condensing

19 furnaces, for some reason, I guess the

20 pressure drops so much higher in that, that as

21 you get to the higher Qmaxes, that it tends to

22 fall off quicker. So, our slope actually goes
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1 the other way. And so, some are above and

2 some are below, but it doesn't match.

3 Of course, we didn't have a test

4 procedure to test to. I'm sorry. But we did

5 assume that we would dig into the data and

6 draw curves and match whatever.

7 So, I will be able to supply this

8 information in the comments and maybe even

9 give you some curves before I leave. But

10 there's something that just doesn't seem quite

11 right.

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Do you want

13 to add on, Dave? Nothing at this time? Okay.

14 Yes, Gary?

15 MR. CLARK: Gary Clark from

16 Goodman.

17 Why was three speed taps picked

18 instead of four, which four is much more

19 prevalent in the industry?

20 MR. FOLEY: So, that was based on

21 that was the least-efficient that was on the

22 market. So, that is why the three-speed tap
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1 is the baseline. Four is the improved PSC.

2 MR. VERSHAW: I don't know; I have

3 been doing furnaces and other things for Trane

4 since, oh, '88, and we've had four taps the

5 whole time.

6 DR. JAKOBS: I have three.

7 (Laughter.)

8 I have three and four.

9 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: True

10 confessions. True confessions. Okay.

11 DR. JAKOBS: They're out there.

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Let's keep

13 going.

14 MR. FOLEY: So, now that we have

15 the slope, next we performed a market and

16 capacity-weighted least squares regression,

17 keeping the slope constant to determine the Y

18 intercept of the linear equation.

19 And this equation on here is

20 showing the least squares regression analysis. 

21 So, basically, we just moved this line up and

22 down, keeping the same slope, and trying to
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1 minimize all of these different FER points in

2 there, minimize that error squared. And

3 again, market capacity, weighted that.

4 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Harvey Sachs?

5 MR. SACHS: Going back to Harvey

6 Sachs, ACEEEá ágoing back to slide 29, you

7 asserted in the text that you concluded that

8 FER can best be represented as a linear

9 function of airflow capacity. But we are not

10 seeing the scatter diagrams at all. But was

11 the term "best" analytically derived by a

12 procedure analogous to the least squares

13 regression in slide 30 or was this designed to

14 make it feasible to do the regulation? I'm

15 just not sure how you mean the term "best".

16 MR. FOLEY: Yes, I think it was

17 áI mean, you could just see from the FER

18 points that it is definitely increasing with

19 capacity.

20 MR. SACHS: Okay. So, this was

21 analyst's judgment, which I have been guilty

22 of a number of times in my career. It is not
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1 a cardinal sin.

2 MR. FOLEY: Right.

3 MR. SACHS: Thank you.

4 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane?

5 DR. JAKOBS: Diane again.

6 So, I know this is stylized and

7 you have some of the points are above the

8 line; some of the points are below the line. 

9 But, if you kind of step back and say the

10 support documents are based on certain

11 technologies, I would think that, as an

12 example, all the red dots would be constant

13 torque BPM motors, and that I would want to

14 put the line so I get all of them.

15 Because this analysis is based on

16 the technology and the cost data and the

17 manufacturers' analysis is all based on

18 specific technologies. And then, I would want

19 to set the lines so that the regulation would

20 mirror that stratification of technologies.

21 MR. FOLEY: Right. Well, what you

22 see up here, this is just for the baseline. 
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1 This is not 

2 DR. JAKOBS: Just to determine the

3 baseline?

4 MR. FOLEY: Right. But we looked

5 at multiple series of baseline models.

6 MR. VERSHAW: You know, this is

7 Jim VerShaw again.

8 The slide you had up before which

9 talked about market weight 

10 MR. FOLEY: Uh hum.

11 MR. VERSHAW: can you tell me

12 about how you used market weight and what that

13 has to do with technically how a furnace

14 operates or a blower operates?

15 MR. JASINSKI: This is Sam

16 Jasinski.

17 So, the market weight, here what

18 we are trying to do is model something that is

19 going to be representative of the market. And

20 so, you know, some of these points might

21 represent a major market player, which

22 translates to a larger number of shipments,
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1 meaning that those are more representative of

2 what you find across the entire market;

3 whereas, another point from a manufacturer

4 that might not have as large of a market

5 share, that might only represent a very small

6 part of the market. And therefore, if you

7 weight them all equally, that line will change

8 and it will no longer be representative of

9 what is in the market, the baseline of the

10 market.

11 MR. VERSHAW: Oh, higher-selling

12 products, you try to get those closer to the

13 line versus niche products?

14 MR. JASINSKI: Mathematically,

15 yes, by weighting them that way, that that

16 error 

17 MR. VERSHAW: So, for those niche

18 products which might be geographically

19 significant but on the national space is not,

20 those products may not be represented by the

21 baseline. So, therefore, when you go to the

22 new standard, they may not be able to make it. 
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1 And as a result, those customers may not be

2 able to get a product that will fit in their

3 current application. They do a resell. So,

4 what they will end up having to do is just

5 repair rather than buy a new product, because

6 they can't either that or they have to

7 change their ductwork or change something

8 significant. So, it is a lot more than just

9 adding a motor. I mean, that's something we

10 have got to be careful of here.

11 MR. JASINSKI: Okay.

12 MR. VERSHAW: You know, there are

13 some very niche markets in the HVAC business. 

14 You know, the upper Northwest has a lot of

15 downflows that it opted to build in the

16 garages. There's attics and closets in the

17 South. Basements, and if you have never lived

18 anywhere but the Northeast or the Midwest,

19 everybody's got a basement. But that is not

20 the case for most products. The biggest

21 furnace markets are California and Texas. 

22 Those are attics and closets. And it is
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1 difficult to get a bigger furnace up in that

2 attic without tearing out the scuttle hole or

3 taking out the outside wall.

4 So, we have got to be careful that

5 we don't create a standard that says you can't

6 build furnaces like we have been building them

7 in terms of size and fit.

8 MR. JASINSKI: Sam Jasinski,

9 Navigant Consulting, again.

10 So, part of our suite of analyses

11 includes a screening analysis. So, as Kevin

12 discussed, during the market and technology

13 assessment, DOE goes out and tries to find any

14 technology that might reduce the energy

15 consumption of fans, ignoring at that point in

16 the process other factors.

17 Once DOE has that list, it

18 performs a screening analysis, and EPCA

19 mandates that DOE consider technologies that

20 are technologically feasible, practical to

21 manufacture, install, don't reduce utility,

22 and are safe.
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1 So, DOE takes that list of

2 technology options, uses those screening

3 criteria, and eliminates some of them.

4 As someone mentioned earlier I

5 think it was Andrew deLaskiá things like

6 airflow path design and housing improvements,

7 DOE screened out from that list and did not

8 include. And the primary reason for that is

9 that DOE could not find any quantitative

10 improvement in efficiency that was linked

11 directly to a specific improvement in those

12 things that did not require increasing the

13 size of the unit, which, according to those

14 screening criteria, might impact utility,

15 might impact the practicability to install,

16 and might also eventually result in cost to

17 the consumer or limited number of products

18 that are applicable to each consumer because

19 of that increase in size.

20 MR. VERSHAW: Right. But if you

21 look at today's furnaces across the board, the

22 narrower cabinets with the higher heating
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1 inputs at higher FERs, based on the way we are

2 doing this, and if those fall above the

3 minimum, those will have to switch to a bigger

4 cabinet. And now, if you had a 21-inch

5 furnace and duct in your system and you can't

6 put that in anymore, you put a 24, and think

7 about the cost to install that.

8 And that is going to alter the

9 economics. And I hate to see some part of the

10 country become burdened by that additional

11 input because we are off by a little bit. I

12 think we need to adjust where we are here to

13 make sure we have got it right.

14 MR. JASINSKI: Thank you.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Greg?

16 MR. WAGNER: Greg Wagner.

17 I had a basic question about the

18 FER input. Where did you get that data?

19 MR. FOLEY: From a variety of

20 sources. Product literature, testing,

21 manufacturer interviews.

22 MR. WAGNER: Okay. Well, the
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1 reason I'm asking that is that, first, the

2 test procedure, as we have discussed

3 previously, is not complete. So, therefore,

4 I don't know what that would represent.

5 But, secondly, product literature

6 would not have FER data because it is not

7 complete and nobody has tested that standard.

8 And then, I guess I am looking at

9 all these datapoints. Did you test that many

10 points for each of these series to come up

11 with these FER numbers?

12 MR. FOLEY: Well, again, that is

13 from a combination of all those, testing, spec

14 sheets, and interviews.

15 MR. WAGNER: Well, those spec

16 sheets aren't FER data, but 

17 MR. FOLEY: Right, but we could

18 derive FER data from those spec sheets.

19 MR. WAGNER: It is not the same

20 test procedure, the same way to calculate

21 those numbers. So, I don't know how you are

22 making that adjustment, but is that something
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1 that is available?

2 MR. JASINSKI: This is Sam

3 Jasinski, Navigant Consulting.

4 Obviously, there may be

5 differences, but the Department of Energy, it

6 would be negligent for the Department of

7 Energy to not use information that is

8 available, and DOE uses the best information

9 that is available. Some data is better than

10 no data. So, as Kevin said, we tried any

11 number of ways to get as much information as

12 possible.

13 Now, to calculate FER áKevin, can

14 you go back to the slide with the FER

15 equation? the inputs to this equation are

16 electrical consumption in a range of airflow

17 control settings at specific operating points,

18 external static pressure.

19 So, while there may be some

20 differences in the measurements that you get

21 at certain operating points, DOE feels that

22 those differences are not significant enough
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1 that, if DOE finds that a certain model in the

2 maximum airflow control setting, according to

3 a spec sheet, consumes a certain amount of

4 electricity at a certain static pressure, that

5 that number will be dramatically different

6 from the proposed test procedure in the SNOPR.

7 And one of the reasons that DOE is

8 confident in that is that in written comments

9 received on the test procedure NOPR and SNOPR,

10 manufacturers suggested the method that is

11 being proposed, a lot of the elements of the

12 method that is being proposed, and justified

13 that by saying that that would be the

14 least-burdensome, but accurate reflection of

15 that data from their spec sheets.

16 MR. WAGNER: Right. That's two

17 different things. That's apples and oranges.

18 Yes, we can say or manufacturers

19 can say that the test procedure is not going

20 to be much of a burden, but it is a whole new

21 test procedure with different numbers and

22 different outcomes than what is currently
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1 being done today that is being published in

2 those tables.

3 And that might be the reason why

4 the differences that the manufacturers have

5 stated today, why that curve doesn't fit right

6 for all the cases, and why they are having a

7 lot of product that will not meet the

8 standard.

9 So, again, I would just suggest

10 that you revisit that 

11 MR. JASINSKI: Sure.

12 MR. WAGNER: because that test

13 data that you are using from public literature

14 is not the same as the FER values.

15 MR. JASINSKI: Sure. I'll just

16 reiterate that one way that well, the best

17 way that the Department of Energy can do that

18 is to get accurate FER data from

19 manufacturers. And included in your written

20 comments, if you could explain technically why

21 what's in your spec sheets might be different

22 than what would be generated by using the
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1 proposed test procedure, and even quantify

2 what that difference might be, that would also

3 help the Department of Energy to determine

4 whether that data is useful or even use it and

5 adjust it accordingly.

6 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Charlie, yes?

7 MR. McCRUDDEN: Okay. Charlie

8 McCrudden, Air Conditioning Contractors of

9 America.

10 I want to actually pick up on the

11 discussion that Jim VerShaw had on cabinet

12 size and the screening analysis that you

13 mentioned.

14 We have seen in the past

15 unintended consequences of changes in

16 performance standards on the size of the

17 equipment and what happens. Now I heard a lot

18 back in 2006-2007 on the change from 10 SEER

19 to 13 SEER, some things as sort of not silly,

20 but as minimal as the flowerbed had to be

21 shrunk to hold the new condensing on the

22 outside.
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1 But we have also talked about this

2 with furnaces in requiring condensing

3 furnaces. There are installation costs that

4 are added on.

5 You mentioned that there is a

6 screening analysis that you performed. Does

7 the TSD go into some discussion on what you

8 considered in some of these impacts?

9 MR. JASINSKI: Yes, Chapter 4 

10 MR. McCRUDDEN: Chapter 4?

11 MR. JASINSKI: will include the

12 write-up of the screening analysis.

13 MR. McCRUDDEN: Okay.

14 MR. JASINSKI: But if you want to

15 get into details about the impacts on

16 installation costs and those things 

17 MR. McCRUDDEN: Right.

18 MR. JASINSKI: that will

19 actually be part of some of the downstream

20 analyses that we will talk about laterá 

21 MR. McCRUDDEN: Okay.

22 MR. JASINSKI: but are also
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1 included in the TSD.

2 MR. McCRUDDEN: Thank you.

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Harvey Sachs?

4 MR. SACHS: This is Harvey Sachs

5 at ACEEE.

6 I'm concerned about your statement

7 that you looked at all sorts of information

8 that might have been relevant. And there is

9 an historical component here that a decade ago

10 and more some utilities were concerned about

11 furnace fan power, the context of their

12 incentive programs.

13 Some of them were moving toward an

14 explicit prescriptive requirement of ECMs for 

15 their rebates or as an adder for their

16 rebates. And some of us took a look at that

17 and said, "This is not a good idea," that we

18 should, with all due respect to my friends

19 from Regal-Beloit, we should be thinking in

20 terms of performance rather than prescriptive

21 requirements.

22 And we worked on a number of
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1 things and handed it off to AHRI. And the

2 directory now includes a list of condensing

3 units with a small "e" for low electricity

4 use.

5 At one point, the response to

6 consumers in California, I looked to see if we

7 could extend that to non-condensing furnaces. 

8 And it turns out that the heating/cooling

9 ratio variability, which shows up in separate

10 SKUs, I believe, went with this was just nuts.

11 And similarly, as I think about

12 the comments today, we are trying to wrap the

13 furnace fans into a simple requirement, but

14 the equations don't seem to include the

15 downstream technologies. There is an inherent

16 difference in the internal static between a

17 condensing furnace and a non-condensing. 

18 These cannot be put on the same graph. We are

19 going to have to have product classes for FER,

20 and they have to have separate values as well

21 as capacity limit.

22 And this seems to have been
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1 completely ignored. And I think this is the

2 source of some of the concerns that you are

3 hearing at this table. The fan power required

4 in a condensing furnace is different.

5 Thank you.

6 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Terry?

7 MR. SMALL: Terry Small, Mortex.

8 Following up along with what Jim

9 said, we are a manufacturer of niche products,

10 in particular, manufactured housing furnaces,

11 both gas and electric. And what's a bit

12 unique about that application is the footprint

13 is the same regardless of the capacity, the

14 heating capacity or the cooling capacity, of

15 these units. They are typically 20-inches

16 wide, maybe 25-inches deep.

17 So, what that means is that, on

18 our version that would handle a 3-ton coil, it

19 is going to have maybe a third horsepower

20 motor. And this is both gas and electric. In

21 both of those cases, the PSC version is

22 marginal or barely passes or barely fails.
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1 The same cabinet, we put a

2 three-quarter horsepower motor in, both

3 electric and natural gas, and put a 4- or

4 5-ton coil in that. And so, you know, you've

5 got the same box, basically. You're putting

6 a bigger motor in it, a bigger coil, and those

7 fail miserably.

8 So, a lot of our business is

9 replacement, meaning there are millions of

10 manufactured homes, mobile homes out there,

11 that cannot structurally be modified to take

12 a bigger furnace.

13 So, basically, what we have seen

14 in the proposed rulemaking here is, the way

15 you have got it set up, you will wipe out the

16 bigger application. Maybe the smaller

17 application will work. And really,

18 technologically, even if you put an ECM motor

19 in the unit, it may not solve the problem.

20 So, I get back to what Jim was

21 saying. I believe that you all should go back

22 and relook at the actual cabinet size, and
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1 maybe there needs to be sort of best

2 practices, a best FER value by cabinet size or

3 maybe by the cooling capacity, too. It might

4 be a different approach. Otherwise, you are

5 going to basically destroy certain

6 applications.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Moving

8 on. Oh, Steve Rosenstock?

9 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock.

10 This is something completely

11 different. There is a terrible whine coming

12 from these speakers. Is there some way you

13 can just I don't know if it is feedback, or

14 whatever. Is there anyá 

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Let's try

16 turning that one off. Let's just see if that

17 helps.

18 It's not the microphone? It is

19 the air handler?

20 (Laughter.)

21 I'm sorry. We have had that at

22 many meetings. So, I don't think there is
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1 anything we can do about it.

2 Okay. We're going to press on.

3 MR. FOLEY: So, moving on, now

4 that we have the slope and the Y intercept, we

5 could develop these FER equations.

6 So, these are based on FER

7 equations with typical capacity, what they

8 would be for typical capacities, 1200 CFM and

9 2,000 CFM.

10 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Question? I'm

11 sorry. Steve Rosenstock, EEI.

12 In that previous slide, you show

13 1200. Is that the two most common CFM ratings

14 for - 

15 MR. FOLEY: Right, right, right.

16 MR. ROSENSTOCK: And is it 1200,

17 and is 1200 more the median value, or I'm just

18 kind of curious about what all 

19 MR. FOLEY: Yes, that is a 3-ton. 

20 That's more the median value.

21 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay. That

22 helps. Thank you. Okay.
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1 MR. FOLEY: Okay. So, moving on,

2 each efficiency level above the baseline is

3 defined by the specific design option used to

4 achieve it. And DOE does not expect the

5 percentage reduction FER associated with each

6 design option, whether commercially available

7 or a prototype, to differ across product

8 classes.

9 And DOE found that manufacturers

10 use similar components and design paths to

11 improve the efficiency across all product

12 classes. So, DOE determined the average

13 percent reductions in FER for each efficiency

14 level and applied these reductions to all

15 product classes.

16 DOE based the reductions in FER

17 associated with commercial technologies on

18 measurements or publicly-available performance

19 data, again, just like the baseline data. And

20 DOE based the FER reductions associated with

21 prototype technologies on research reports

22 that included performance data.
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1 So, here are the percent

2 reductions in FER for each efficiency level. 

3 And these are percent reductions in FER from

4 the baseline.

5 MR. VERSHAW: Jim VerShaw here.

6 We have constant torque motors in

7 production for both condensing and

8 non-condensing furnaces. And I don't get a

9 constant reduction in energy usage across

10 furnace size. At the real small furnaces, it

11 is in that ball park, but at the 5-ton, it is

12 only about a 20-percent reduction, and the

13 slope is tremendously different.

14 And the thing I am concerned about

15 here is that all of the costs, that all of the

16 energy savings was based on a constant

17 reduction across all sizes. And I am not sure

18 we can get that.

19 MR. FOLEY: Yes. Well, again, any

20 data would be great appreciated 

21 MR. VERSHAW: Okay.

22 MR. FOLEY: for that.
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1 So, using those percent

2 reductions, we multiplied those to the slope

3 and Y intercept of the baseline FER equations

4 to generate the intermediate FER equations.

5 So, this is a table showing the

6 intermediate or sorry the constant

7 torque BPM motor and multi-stage level in all

8 the product classes, the FER equation for all

9 those product classes with that efficiency

10 level. And again, showing the 1200 CFM and

11 the 2,000 CFM.

12 MR. SACHS: Kevin, this is Harvey.

13 And I do owe you an apology. I

14 had forgotten that you differentiated between

15 the non-condensing and condensing on this

16 slide.

17 MR. FOLEY: Uh hum.

18 And then, this shows the

19 efficiency levels for the product class,

20 non-weatherized, non-condensing gas furnace

21 fan. Again, showing the 1200, what it would

22 be for 1200 CFM and 2,000 CFM. And this shows
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1 all the efficiency levels.

2 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Aniruddh?

3 MR. ROY: Aniruddh Roy, AHRI.

4 Kevin, if you could go back to

5 slide 33? I believe the efficiency levels or

6 the design options considered here, design

7 options 2 and 6, they were prototypes, right?

8 MR. FOLEY: Right, yes.

9 MR. ROY: So, I guess I would like

10 to ask DOE this question. You say that you

11 consider something either economically- or

12 technologically-justified. So, in the case of

13 being technologically-justified, do prototypes

14 also get considered under that or do you look

15 at something that is commercially-available as

16 being something that becomes

17 technologically-justified? Because if it is

18 just a prototype and it is not manufactured by

19 OEMs, then would that meet the criteria of

20 being technologically-justified?

21 MR. JASINSKI: Sam Jasinski,

22 Navigant Consulting.
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1 So, obviously, something that has

2 been commercialized meets the technological 

3 not obviously but something that has been

4 commercialized meets the criteria of

5 technologically-feasible. When you get into

6 prototypes that have not been commercialized,

7 that is a little bit different.

8 So, the reason that this prototype

9 was considered technologically-feasible by the

10 Department of Energy was because it had been

11 tested as installed in a

12 commercially-available furnace, and they were

13 able to test it and generate performance

14 values. So, you know, it was a proven concept

15 in terms of performing within a commercialized

16 product.

17 And this is specifically talking

18 about Efficiency Level 6 with a

19 backward-inclined impeller. For Efficiency

20 Level 2, the inverter-driven PSC. DOE is

21 aware that there was a furnace model that was

22 commercially-available at one point that
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1 included this technology. I don't believe

2 that is available anymore, but, anyhow, it was

3 commercially-available at one time.

4 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Steve?

5 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

6 EEI.

7 So, you are talking about

8 Efficiency Level 2? You are basing this on

9 one furnace available at one time, that it

10 would be applicable to all furnaces as a final

11 rule?

12 MR. JASINSKI: It was a technology

13 that was used in multiple series of models for

14 a particular manufacturer. So, it is not a

15 singular model in terms of one product

16 available. It spanned capacities and that

17 sort of thing. And we did have the

18 performance data for those models.

19 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

20 EEI.

21 Yes, I appreciate that, but this

22 was only being offered by one manufacturer?
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1 MR. JASINSKI: Yes, but the

2 inverter technology being paired with a PSC

3 motor is something that is also available in

4 a lot of similar appliances and applications. 

5 So, in terms of technologically-feasible, you

6 know, that is why DOE was confident to include

7 it.

8 The performance data that was

9 available, DOE used that to generate values,

10 but those values have been included in the

11 preliminary analysis, have been brought before

12 manufacturers for comment, and have been open

13 to receiving more information since then.

14 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

15 EEI, again.

16 Thank you.

17 So, it wasn't covered by a special

18 patent where only that one manufacturer would

19 be able to basically - 

20 MR. JASINSKI: No.

21 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay. Thank you.

22 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Other
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1 comments here?

2 (No response.)

3 Let's go back to where you were.

4 MR. FOLEY: Okay. So, moving on

5 to the cost part of the engineering analysis,

6 manufacturing costs were developed as part of

7 the efficiency-level approach.

8 The first here, we selected units,

9 did physical teardowns, developed the bill of

10 materials. That took into account the raw

11 materials, fabrication processes, purchased

12 parts. And that all fed into assembly

13 processes and manufacturing cost.

14 This shows the structure of the

15 manufacturing costs. Basically, in the full

16 MSP, MPC and non-production costs are taken

17 into account.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane?

19 DR. JAKOBS: When I was reading

20 through the Technical Support Document, you

21 know, I know that you didn't know it in the

22 beginning, but all of the design options are
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1 really related to different motor types. So,

2 where I am a manufacturer of a motor, but I am

3 actually a manufacturer of a furnace; I am

4 actually a consumer of a motor. And that was

5 reflected in your analysis, where there is no

6 capital cost.

7 MR. FOLEY: Uh hum.

8 DR. JAKOBS: So, I was curious. I

9 had imagined, when Sam came to visit, that you

10 would also visit manufacturers of motors. So,

11 did you? I mean, did you talk to motor

12 manufacturers or 

13 MR. FOLEY: Those are factored

14 into the purchased parts. Because, like you

15 said, the manufacturers are purchasing those

16 motors from motor manufacturers. So, those

17 are considered 

18 DR. JAKOBS: But I'm saying I

19 don't manufacture any of these things related

20 to different motor technology. I buy them.

21 MR. FOLEY: Right. And those are

22 included in the cost, if that is what you are
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1 asking.

2 DR. JAKOBS: Well, if you are

3 doing a manufacturer analysis, you know, it

4 kind of reminds me of thermodynamics, and you

5 draw a square around something and you look at

6 the ins and the outs. It seems to me you

7 should have had the motor manufacturers inside

8 your square and talked to them about what

9 their costs would be.

10 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Chris?

11 MR. LAU: This is Chris Lau with

12 Navigant.

13 So, in this case in the

14 manufacturer impact analysis, since the burden

15 falls on the HVAC manufacturers, we considered

16 manufacturers to be those that assembled the

17 furnace fan as part of a cover HVAC product.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane?

19 DR. JAKOBS: This is Diane.

20 Well, as soon as I can, I am going

21 to try to shift the burden to my friend here.

22 (Laughter.)
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1 So, I think that they are

2 certainly part of the whole picture here, and

3 we are talking about making a premium product

4 the only product available with respect to

5 motors. So, we are talking about eliminating

6 a whole class of motors and going to what we

7 consider a premium class, you know, and having

8 a large increase in the volume.

9 And I would think there is some

10 impact. For me, it is an impact in my

11 procurement group. And we are going to be

12 buying a whole lot more of them. So, we are

13 going to be talking about what they cost.

14 So, I just think that there is a

15 missing piece in the puzzle here.

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. We

17 have a question from Peter Edwards via the

18 web. And, Peter, I was not certain this was

19 the place for it, but Emily suggests this is

20 the spot.

21 The question is: what was the

22 range of HCR analyzed for multi-stage
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1 furnaces?

2 MR. FOLEY: I think Sam can answer

3 that one.

4 MR. JASINSKI: This is Sam

5 Jasinski, Navigant Consulting.

6 DOE collected a lot of

7 information, and the range that DOE found was

8 anywhere from 35 or 40 percent up to 80 or 90

9 percent.

10 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Thank

11 you.

12 Let me see. Aniruddh, do you have

13 a question here?

14 MR. ROY: I just wanted to

15 supplement what Diane and Chris said. Chapter

16 12, page 12 1 of that chapter, does state that

17 DOE considers the furnace fan industry to

18 consist of manufacturers who assemble furnace

19 fans as a component of their HVAC products.

20 And we feel that the design

21 options that have been narrowed down in this

22 NOPR or being proposed in this NOPR would also
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1 affect the component manufacturers because it

2 would require some changes in the way they do

3 their assembly-line manufacturing for those

4 furnace fans.

5 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

6 Gary?

7 MR. CLARK: So, just so I'm clear,

8 you did not talk to any motor manufacturers?

9 MR. JASINSKI: Sam Jasinski,

10 Navigant Consulting, again.

11 The reason we are not directly

12 answering that question is because those

13 manufacturer interviews are confidential, and

14 DOE doesn't typically divulge who they talked

15 to.

16 MR. CLARK: I am not asking who

17 you talked to. I'm just asking if you talked

18 to them. That's the question.

19 MR. JASINSKI: I'm not sure I'm

20 comfortable answering that unless the

21 Department is willing to divulge that.

22 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Kavita?
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1 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: Kavita

2 Vaidyanathan, DOE GC.

3 I think we have to come back to

4 the fact that this is not a motor standard we

5 are looking at. We are looking at a furnace

6 fan standard.

7 And I understand your comments,

8 and we will consider those comments, but we

9 have to get back to the fact that we are

10 looking at a furnace fan standard at this

11 point. And we have standards for motors. I

12 am not involved in those standards, but I

13 understand we do have those. And those would

14 apply to motors specifically.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Scott?

16 MR. DURFEE: This is Scott Durfee

17 with Nidec Motor Corporation.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Use the

19 microphone, Scott. Thank you.

20 MR. DURFEE: Scott Durfee with

21 Nidec Motor Corporation.

22 On slide No. 35, you talk about
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1 improved PSC. Can you define what you looked

2 at when you looked at the improved PSCs?

3 MR. FOLEY: Yes, that is a PSC

4 with more than three airflow control settings.

5 MR. DURFEE: Okay. So, it was not

6 what is considered a higher-efficiency PSC or

7 premium-efficiency-style PSC? It was just a

8 four-tap PSC?

9 MR. FOLEY: Right, right.

10 MR. DURFEE: There are such things

11 as higher-efficiency PSCs, and these numbers

12 do not reflect that.

13 MR. FOLEY: Okay.

14 MR. DURFEE: And that is something

15 that some of the manufacturers here are using,

16 and I think that needs to be considered.

17 MR. FOLEY: Okay.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: If you would

19 include that in your written comments, Scott,

20 that would be helpful.

21 Terry?

22 MR. SMALL: I would just like to
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1 point out that there are some of the motor

2 manufacturers that are trying to provide a

3 solution for this or getting into the blower

4 wheel housing/impeller combination. So, at

5 that point, they would be providing what I

6 would consider would be the furnace fan. All

7 the furnace manufacturer is doing is providing

8 the sheet metal to go around it.

9 So, maybe it wasn't the practice

10 so much years ago, but all of the

11 manufacturers are looking at the idea of

12 providing integrated air-moving solutions. 

13 So, I really think that they should be party

14 to this and not excluded. I mean, the idea

15 that they are pure motor manufacturers that

16 aren't looking at providing an integrated

17 solution is just not correct.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Thank

19 you.

20 Andrew?

21 MR. DELASKI: I guess I will just

22 point out that there are motor manufacturers
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1 in the room here. One of them just spoke.

2 Thank you, Scott, for speaking up.

3 And they have been in this process

4 from the very beginning. And it has been an

5 open, public process, and motor manufacturers,

6 to the best of my knowledge, are very familiar

7 with this rulemaking process. They have a

8 trade association that tracks DOE very

9 closely.

10 So, the notion that the motor

11 manufacturers aren't paying attention to

12 what's going on here I think is not accurate. 

13 I think they are paying attention very

14 closely, and it does affect their business.

15 I think DOE is regulating the

16 furnace fan, which the motor is an integral

17 piece of, and some of the design options that

18 are more in the control of the furnace

19 manufacturers, for the reason that Jim

20 described, have already been screened out.

21 So, it is somewhat you can't have

22 it both ways. You know, it is about the motor
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1 at this point to a large extent, but that is

2 because the things that are more in the

3 furnace manufacturer's control have been

4 screened out because of the size constraints.

5 So, they're here and they're

6 paying attention, and their interests are

7 being represented well, I think, by their

8 representatives.

9 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Terry?

10 MR. SMALL: Well, I'm not

11 disagreeing with you, but I do believe that it

12 is worrisome. We didn't get a direct answer

13 as to whether these people were specifically

14 included in all of the data-gathering or maybe

15 even visited. I don't know.

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Yes?

17 MR. WINNINGHAM: This is Dave from

18 Allied.

19 I think the key issue here is that

20 it assumed a zero capital impact to

21 manufacturers, and I think from the

22 manufacturers, including the motor
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1 manufacturers, I just don't believe that to be

2 accurate.

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. 

4 Aniruddh?

5 MR. ROY: Aniruddh Roy.

6 Just to respond to Andrew

7 deLaski's point, you know, considering just

8 HVAC manufacturers or the OEMs as being part

9 of the furnace fan industry also impacts the

10 manufacturer impact analysis. Now you have a

11 lesser number of manufacturers being included

12 in that model, which is not true because the

13 motor manufacturers, even though they are

14 involved in the process, are being impacted to

15 a certain degree by whatever comes out of this

16 rulemaking.

17 So, I think the point I was trying

18 to make was that in the manufacturer impact

19 analysis I hope that they have been considered

20 in those assumptions and whatever inputs that

21 went into that spreadsheet.

22 MR. DELASKI: Just to respond, you
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1 know, this is true for every single rulemaking

2 the Department does, right, a refrigerator

3 stand or compressor manufacturers, insulation

4 manufacturers. A motor standard affects the

5 copper and aluminum industry. This standard

6 may affect the copper and aluminum industry.

7 So, at some point, the party that

8 is regulated in this instance is the furnace

9 manufacturer who has to certify that it is

10 compliant, right? So, they're the industry,

11 and I think this is as Diane put it, you

12 know, how you draw your box does matter, but

13 you have to draw a box. And where are you

14 going to stop?

15 And I think you have to do it. I

16 think the Department has been appropriate here

17 to regulate, go out to pay attention to the

18 regulated entity, as opposed to a supplier.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you,

20 Andrew.

21 Charlie Stephens?

22 MR. STEPHENS: I'll turn this off
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1 afterward.

2 Charlie Stephens.

3 I just wanted to add, I was going

4 to say a lot of what Andrew just said. But I

5 would add that there is quite a bit of

6 discussion of this, if you read the NOPR

7 document. And I don't think a lot of what is

8 in there actually could have been written

9 without motor manufacturer input, at least the

10 way I read it. So, it seems to me that at

11 some point they must have been consulted

12 because I wouldn't be able to read that

13 otherwise.

14 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you.

15 Jim?

16 MR. VERSHAW: Yes, I don't know

17 the answer to this, but the real question is,

18 since there was no capital effect on motor

19 manufacturers, can they turn off 3 million

20 PSCs a year and turn on 3 more million

21 Brushless Permanent Magnet motors without

22 investing capital in their plants?
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Harvey

2 Sachs>

3 MR. SACHS: Jim, it pains me to

4 say anything good about what DOE contractors

5 have done, but my understanding is that the

6 purchase price of that motor will include the

7 capitalization that the motor supplier did. 

8 That is built into it. It is just that it is

9 treated as a purchased item with a variable

10 cost it would be volume-dependent or

11 whatever rather than a capitalization by

12 the HVAC manufacturer. Is that what I should

13 be understanding? So, it is not ignored.

14 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Chris?

15 MR. LAU: Chris Lau.

16 Yes, I would agree with that

17 assessment.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Karen

19 Meyers, joining us through the web, has a

20 comment.

21 Karen, unmute your phone, and we

22 hope to hear you in the room.
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1 (No audible response.)

2 There is nothing yet.

3 Karen, are you trying?

4 (No audible response.)

5 I'm sorry, Karen. I'm sorry to

6 everyone who is joining us via the web. I

7 hope you are able to follow this fairly well

8 because we are having technical difficulty

9 today. And it is a little atypical for it to

10 be this bad; it really is.

11 Keep trying. We want to get you

12 in here.

13 Terry?

14 MR. SMALL: Unless I have

15 misunderstood something, I don't believe you

16 have any return on capital in the analysis,

17 based around what the investment the motor

18 guys may have to make.

19 In other words, they will have to

20 sell their product at a higher price, and I

21 think some places the assumption is the price

22 of the motor doesn't go up. So, where is the
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1 return on capital that these guys will have to

2 make to step up to the plate with 70-80

3 percent BPMs in five or ten years?

4 MR. LAU: So, this is Chris Lau

5 with Navigant.

6 Just to highlight prior

7 statements, we do draw a boundary layer around

8 the regulated entity, which are the HVAC

9 product manufacturers. We have taken feedback

10 from the industry on pricing. However, given

11 the folks in the room, if they want to

12 contribute additional information about the

13 impact of this standard on the pricing of

14 motors, DOE would welcome that.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Charlie

16 Stephens?

17 MR. STEPHENS: Yes, I just hate to

18 keep going over this again and again. But in

19 the lamp rulemaking the price of phosphorous

20 and the impact on phosphorous miners and

21 processors was a factor, and it was taken into

22 account in the price of the phosphors that the
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1 lamp manufacturers would have to pay to

2 acquire those phosphors.

3 And I presume the same thing will

4 occur here where the price that the HVAC

5 manufacturers will have to pay for the motors

6 will be taken into account. There will be

7 price impacts, but you can't draw the boundary

8 all the way back to the mine where the copper

9 is produced, the copper ore is mined. So, you

10 draw it around the regulated entity who has to

11 certify that the product meets the standard

12 when it is shipped to the marketplace. And I

13 presume that is HVAC manufacturers.

14 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: A final

15 commentary, and then, we are moving on.

16 MR. SMALL: I mean, I agree with

17 you, Charlie. However, though, the assumption

18 is made here that the motor price doesn't

19 change over 30 years, I believe. So, I guess

20 I still wonder who gets squeezed here.

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Kevin?

22 MR. FOLEY: Okay. Moving on to
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1 slide 38, the cost of using the engineering

2 analysis represents the cost of the furnace

3 fan and not the cost of the entire HVAC

4 product.

5 The following components are

6 included in the MPC estimates: fan motor and

7 integrated controls, the PCB, the impeller,

8 the fan housing, components used to direct or

9 guide airflow, and multi-staging components

10 and controls.

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane?

12 DR. JAKOBS: I had a question

13 about this one. In order to get a multi-stage

14 furnace, you have to add a multi-stage gas

15 valve and you have to add a multi-stage

16 inducer.

17 MR. FOLEY: Yes.

18 DR. JAKOBS: So, are those in

19 there?

20 MR. FOLEY: Yes.

21 DR. JAKOBS: Components used? No? 

22 Multi-staging components 
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1 MR. FOLEY: Multi-staging

2 components and controls.

3 DR. JAKOBS: Okay.

4 MR. FOLEY: And within that, we

5 include the gas valve, the inducer assembly,

6 the presser switch, and additional wiring

7 needed for that.

8 Moving on, DOE separated furnished

9 fan product classes into high-volume and

10 low-volume product classes, factors that

11 impact that manufacturers' production cost and

12 purchasing power. DOE is aware that the

13 purchasing power will be different for

14 high-volume and low-volume manufacturers, and

15 DOE took this into account when developing the

16 MPCs.

17 So, for the high-volume product

18 classes, we have non-weatherized gas furnaces,

19 weatherized gas furnaces, electric furnaces,

20 modular blowers. And for low-volume, we have

21 oil furnaces.

22 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Let me just
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1 pause you there.

2 Karen Meyers is trying again. 

3 This time she has provided a question in

4 writing.

5 And her question is: is DOE

6 assuming that, if furnace manufacturers have

7 to switch 100 percent of our production to BPM

8 motors, that furnace manufacturers will not

9 incur any capital costs?

10 MR. LAU: Can you repeat the

11 question one more time?

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Is DOE

13 assuming that, if furnace manufacturers have

14 to switch 100 percent of our production to BPM

15 motors, that furnace manufacturers will not

16 incur any capital costs?

17 MR. LAU: Chris Lau with Navigant.

18 We will actually go into this in

19 some depth later today when we cover the

20 manufacturing impact analysis. But, for the

21 time being, we assume there are very minimal

22 capital conversion costs involved with moving
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1 towards BPM motors.

2 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. We

3 will get into it in more detail. Okay.

4 MR. FOLEY: Okay. Moving on to

5 slide 40, Sam kind of went over this earlier. 

6 But DOE used the design option approach to

7 estimate the cost of technologies not

8 commercially-available in furnace fan

9 applications.

10 So, for inverter controls, DOE

11 estimated these costs based on discussions

12 with manufacturers and, then, cost estimates

13 for inverter drives using similar residential

14 applications such as clothes washers.

15 The premium of constant airflow

16 BPM motor, DOE used the 10-percent markup on

17 the estimated cost for the cost in airflow 

18 BPM motor as the additional premium cost for

19 this.

20 And for backward-inclined

21 impellers, DOE used photographs and

22 specifications used in research reports to
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1 determine the cost model inputs.

2 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Comments on

3 these cost figures?

4 Jim?

5 MR. VERSHAW: I'm just curious. 

6 What was the constant torque motor values that

7 you assigned to it?

8 MR. FOLEY: Oh, for the costs?

9 MR. VERSHAW: Yes.

10 MR. FOLEY: Those are actually on

11 the next page. I think it was yes, these

12 include everything, but I'm not sure of the

13 exact cost on it. So, I think it would be 10

14 percent or 90 percent of that 128. So, this

15 includes that cost adder, that 10-percent cost

16 adder.

17 MR. VERSHAW: Ten percent cost

18 adder from a 

19 MR. FOLEY: From a constant

20 airflow.

21 MR. VERSHAW: Talking about

22 constant torque.
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1 MR. FOLEY: Oh, your question was

2 constant torque?

3 MR. VERSHAW: Yes.

4 MR. FOLEY: Oh, okay. I don't

5 remember the exact cost. Well, they are in

6 the TSD, I believe.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Maybe we can

8 dig that out.

9 Terry, you're next.

10 MR. SMALL: I can't believe that

11 sort of a little, teeny manufacturer would

12 only pay 32 cents more for a backward-inclined

13 impeller compared to the industry giants.

14 I guess, to me, there's not much

15 differentiation between high-volume and

16 low-volume for backward-inclined impellers,

17 which is something that is really not readily

18 available anyway. What is the assumption

19 behind that?

20 MR. FOLEY: I think we just put

21 those in our cost estimate and used different

22 input production volumes for that. And then,
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1 that's what it spit out, was that 32 cents

2 addition.

3 MR. SMALL: Well, I would

4 definitely go back and revisit that, not that

5 that really I mean, that is a best-tech

6 sort of level. So, I guess that is really 

7 maybe that doesn't have that much influence on

8 the rulemaking. But that's not right,

9 definitely.

10 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Aniruddh?

11 MR. ROY: So, page 5 26 of the

12 engineering analysis does display the prices

13 for high-volume and low-volume constant torque

14 BPMs. It states 1590 for high-volume and 1957

15 for low-volume products.

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Is this some

17 sort of averaging going on here?

18 MR. FOLEY: For that one?

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: For the

20 slide.

21 MR. FOLEY: Yes, that was market

22 and market weighed, yes.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

2 Diane?

3 DR. JAKOBS: Sorry. I have just

4 another question. One of the things we are

5 seeing as BPM motors are becoming more

6 prevalent 

7 (Interruption by static.)

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, Diane.

9 DR. JAKOBS: I'll try again.

10 So, I think the gentleman from

11 Southern Company brought up the issue of power

12 factors. And we are starting to hear that we

13 might have requirements for adding filters to

14 our appliances that use BPM technology. And

15 I understand that those can cost $10 to $20. 

16 Is that a component that you included?

17 MR. FOLEY: That was not included

18 in this, no.

19 DR. JAKOBS: Thank you.

20 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you.

21 Okay.

22 MR. FOLEY: All right. So, moving
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1 on to the cost-efficiency curves, here is the

2 cost-efficiency results for non-weatherized

3 gas, non-condensing at 1200 CFM. And the red

4 dotted line shows the proposed standard level.

5 Moving on, here is the

6 cost-efficiency results for electric furnace,

7 the modular blowers. You might notice that

8 the costs for multi-staging were reduced, and

9 that is because you don't need as many

10 components moving from gas to electric

11 multi-staging.

12 And then, this is the results for

13 the low-volume product class, non-weatherized

14 oil, non-condensing. Again, at 1200 CFM.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Steve

16 Rosenstock?

17 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steven

18 Rosenstock, EEI.

19 It is the manufacturing production

20 costs, not retail cost, correct?

21 MR. FOLEY: Correct.

22 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay. Thank you.
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1 MR. FOLEY: All right. So, as Sam

2 mentioned before, we would invite additional

3 FER data, using that test procedure proposed

4 in the SNOPR, and as well as additional

5 comments and recommendations regarding our

6 capacity analysis that I discussed earlier.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Any

8 additional comments here?

9 Yes, Aniruddh?

10 MR. ROY: Kevin, page 5 22 of the

11 engineering analysis, there is a table in

12 there which has the factory parameter

13 assumptions.

14 MR. FOLEY: Yes, yes.

15 MR. ROY: Where did these

16 assumptions go into? Which spreadsheet tool

17 did they go into?

18 MR. FOLEY: Those go into our cost

19 model 

20 MR. ROY: Okay.

21 MR. FOLEY: where we developed

22 the materials.
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1 MR. ROY: Okay. And this annual

2 production volume of 1.25 million for the

3 furnaces or furnace fans 

4 MR. FOLEY: Yes.

5 MR. ROY: is that for the entire

6 industry?

7 MR. FOLEY: Right. I think that

8 was for the high-volume. And then, there is

9 a different table for the low-volume

10 manufacturers.

11 MR. ROY: Okay. Okay. Because

12 there is only one table for 

13 MR. FOLEY: Maybe it is described

14 in a paragraph below it.

15 MR. ROY: Okay. Yes. My comment

16 was only going to be that, historically, we

17 have seen anywhere between 2 and 3 million

18 products shipped, and that is over the last

19 five to ten years.

20 MR. FOLEY: Okay. Was that

21 furnaces or furnace fans?

22 MR. ROY: Well, yes, furnaces.
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1 MR. FOLEY: Right. Okay.

2 MR. ROY: But since you're

3 including only high-volume, it would be nice

4 to have a low-volume table also that showed

5 the exact numbers.

6 MR. FOLEY: Right. Okay. Thank

7 you for that.

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes, Diane?

9 DR. JAKOBS: I forgot.

10 (Laughter.)

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: That's okay.

12 DR. JAKOBS: So, the request for

13 comment, you're specifically saying the test

14 procedure from April 2nd, 2013, and I was not

15 very happy with some of the parts of that test

16 procedure. So, I don't want to waste

17 laboratory time testing to that test procedure

18 because I am really anxious that you change

19 parts of it.

20 Some of that, there was that

21 mixing thing. There's stuff about where you

22 measure pressures. And so, that would be
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1 difficult. Until we had a final test

2 procedure, I would have hard time, even though

3 I am so involved with all this. Not everyone

4 at Rheem shares my enthusiasm.

5 (Laughter.)

6 And I don't think I could get lab

7 time, unless I could assure them that that

8 data would be good towards the final rule.

9 So, thank you.

10 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: In your

11 previous written comments, did you address all

12 these issues?

13 DR. JAKOBS: Yes, I would. Yes.

14 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. So,

15 you'll do it again?

16 MR. MAJETTE: Yes, I can speak on

17 behalf of Diane.

18 (Laughter.)

19 Most of her emails are going

20 straight into our files.

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Okay. 

22 Good. Well, that's what is helpful for the
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1 Department. That's good. Okay.

2 Yes, Gary?

3 MR. CLARK: Excuse my ignorance. 

4 For these types of comments, if we were to

5 supply data, is it confidential or is it

6 public record?

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Do you want

8 to address this? Or Kavita?

9 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: Hi. This is

10 Kavita Vaidyanathan.

11 You would mark it as confidential

12 business information if you deem that it is

13 for your company, and we would review that. 

14 If we come out, if we come back with a

15 question about it, we would come back to you

16 before we release it.

17 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Sam, do you

18 want to address this also, because Navigant

19 has a different standing in this, right? Or

20 Chris? Because they are different stratum,

21 different flavors, of this submission.

22 MR. LAU: So, during the
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1 manufacturer interview process, we are able to

2 sign NDAs with various manufacturers, and you

3 submit the data directlyá 

4 MR. CLARK: Yes, I understand that

5 whole process.

6 MR. LAU: Right.

7 MR. CLARK: It was just 

8 MR. LAU: But if you submit as a

9 public comment, unless you have marked it

10 otherwise, it is public information.

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Okay.

12 Final comments here in this

13 section?

14 (No response.)

15 Okay. I am going to suggest we go

16 to lunch. We have covered a lot of ground. 

17 We are a little behind schedule here, but I

18 believe we will make it up. It is now 12:05.

19 It takes just about an hour under

20 the best of circumstances to eat lunch here. 

21 I mean, that is if you don't leave campus. 

22 So, there is a big cafeteria down to the
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1 ground floor and about 100 yards thataway. 

2 And I would suggest we all go there en masse.

3 This room will be locked. You can

4 leave your stuff here.

5 You will need a badge. You might

6 need an ID to get back through the security

7 portal because they will check. Once you go

8 to the cafeteria, you will have to re-enter

9 through security at the cafeteria exit.

10 So, we have made good progress.

11 We will resume at 1:05 right here.

12 And for those of you joining us

13 via the web, I hope that you're not

14 frustrated, that we can make this work a

15 little better in the afternoon for you.

16 Thank you.

17 (Whereupon, the foregoing matter

18 went off the record for lunch at 12:06 p.m.

19 and went back on the record at 1:15 p.m.)

20

21

22
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1 A-F-T-E-R-N-O-O-N S-E-S-S-I-O-N

2 (1:15 p.m.)

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: We are going

4 to pick up where we left off, which is with

5 markups analysis and energy use and hear from

6 Victor Franco.

7 MR. FRANCO: Good afternoon. My

8 name is Victor Franco.

9 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Let's bring

10 this meeting back to order, please.

11 Okay, here we go.

12 MR. FRANCO: Good afternoon. My

13 name is Victor Franco. I'm from Lawrence

14 Berkeley National Laboratory and I will be

15 presenting the markup analysis and energy use,

16 as well as the life-cycle cost and payback

17 period analysis.

18 The markups relate consumer prices

19 to manufacturer selling price. And DOE uses

20 two markups, baseline and incremental. 

21 Baseline markups are applied to the baseline

22 price and incremental markups are applied to
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1 the incremental costs.

2 Basically, incremental markups do

3 not include fixed costs such as overhead and 

4 labor that do not scale up with higher

5 efficiency.

6 Distribution channels through

7 which products move from manufacturers to

8 producers were developed. DOE, for this

9 analysis, assumed three separate distribution 

10 channels, one for replacement, one for new

11 construction, and one for new construction of

12 manufactured home.

13 Depending on the distribution

14 channel, DOE included different market

15 participants, including the manufacturer,

16 wholesaler, mechanical contractor, general

17 contractor, manufactured home manufacturer,

18 and manufactured home dealer. I will go into

19 more detail about the specific distribution

20 channels and which market participants are

21 associated with each.

22 Finally, the sales taxes,
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1 wholesaler, mechanical contractor and general

2 contractor markups were developed for each of

3 the geographical areas in the analysis.

4 So, hopefully this illustrates our

5 distribution channels. So again, we have a

6 replacement distribution channel which

7 basically starts at the manufacturer, goes to

8 the wholesaler, mechanical contractor, and

9 then consumer.

10 The new construction distribution

11 channel is essentially the same with the

12 addition of the general contractor between the

13 consumer and general mechanical contractor.

14 In addition, we have for new

15 construction only manufactured homes where we

16 have the manufacturer, manufactured home

17 manufacturer, manufactured home dealer, and

18 the consumer. Essentially, these distribution

19 channels are the same from the preliminary

20 analysis.

21 One thing to note here, the only

22 change was for manufactured home dealer before
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1 the preliminary analysis we had manufactured

2 home contractor. Now it is changed to

3 manufactured home dealer, based on stakeholder

4 input.

5 These slides presents a summary of

6 the changes between the preliminary analysis

7 and the NOPR. And a lot of the slides that I

8 will be presenting, as well as the NIA and

9 shipments will have something similar to this. 

10 So, it is very condensed. Obviously, it has

11 a lot of information. So, please ask

12 questions if you have any.

13 Each of these slides will put the

14 primary inputs to the analysis, as well as a

15 short description of what done in the

16 preliminary analysis and if there were any

17 changes in the NOPR.

18 As I mentioned before, the

19 distribution channels essentially are the

20 same, except that the manufacturer contractor

21 is now a manufacturer dealer.

22 The manufactured markups were
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1 updated for each product class, based on

2 updated information from the SEC 10-K reports.

3 For other markups, such as

4 wholesaler or mechanical contract, general

5 contractor, a home manufacturer contractor,

6 there was no additional updated data that was

7 available and there were no changes to those.

8 For the manufacturer home dealer,

9 we did change the data source. Before we were

10 using all other specialty trade contractor

11 sector from the 2007 Economic Census. This

12 includes a lot of different types of

13 contractor, including the home dealer. But

14 since it includes all these other contractors,

15 the markups associated with that are probably

16 not accurate.

17 What the DOE did was looked at

18 product -- different sources, did a literature

19 search, as well as stakeholder input, and

20 generated its own markup based on that for

21 them.

22 The sales taxes were updated to
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1 the 2013 Sales Tax Clearinghouse data.

2 Here are the results of that

3 analysis, in terms of the baseline markup and

4 incremental markup for each of the product

5 classes. As you can see, the baseline markup

6 is higher than the incremental markup. And

7 for each product class, the markups are

8 different.

9 DR. JAKOBS: I have a question. 

10 This is Diane Jakobs from Rheem.

11 So when you talk about

12 incremental, what is the increment, like in

13 efficiency or somewhere every time it goes

14 from like the wholesaler to the mechanical

15 contractor it increments, there is a markup? 

16 I don't know. When is the increment, I guess,

17 is what I am trying to get at.

18 MR. FRANCO: Yes, yes. It is a

19 very good question. So, essentially you can

20 think of it in this way. If you have -- well

21 let's say you have baseline equipment that

22 costs let's say $100. So for that $100, you
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1 apply the baseline markup. And say the markup

2 is three. So that gives you $300 is your

3 consumer price for that baseline equipment.

4 Now, let's say you have a more

5 efficient equipment and the manufacturer cost

6 of that is $200. So the incremental between

7 the baseline equipment and this more efficient 

8 equipment is $100. And for that $100

9 increment, we applied this incremental markup

10 to it.

11 So, let's say the incremental

12 markup is two. So for that $100 increment,

13 you multiply that times two. You get $200. 

14 So in essence, your total consumer price would

15 be $500 for the more efficient equipment

16 versus $300 for the baseline equipment.

17 DR. JAKOBS: So if you were saying

18 if you just looked at it all lumped together,

19 the margin on that higher efficient, more

20 efficient equipment would be a smaller margin?

21 MR. FRANCO: It would be not in

22 terms of the manufacturer. The manufacturer
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1 markup is essentially the same. It remains

2 constant between the baseline incremental. 

3 But in the distribution chain, there are

4 several different participants that might have

5 some fixed costs, where those things don't

6 change.

7 So primarily, for example, the

8 general contractor, mechanical contractor. 

9 But in terms of the manufacturer, they have

10 exactly the same markup.

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Dave, go

12 ahead.

13 MR. WINNINGHAM: I believe what

14 you are stating is the markup dollars remain

15 the same and the actual markup percentage is

16 reduced, as I read in the NOPR. And I am just

17 curious as to why DOE feels that is accurate.

18 MR. FRANCO: Well what we had to

19 distinguish between the total, all the

20 distribution channel and just the

21 manufacturer.

22 In terms of the manufacturer, the
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1 markup between the baseline and incremental is

2 exactly the same. So, in terms of the

3 manufacturer it is the same. In terms of the

4 whole distribution channels it does change.

5 MR. WINNINGHAM: You mean dollars

6 not in percents.

7 MR. FRANCO: No, in percentage. 

8 In percentage terms. So, it might not --

9 MR. WINNINGHAM: But you are

10 showing --

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Microphone.

12 MR. WINNINGHAM: This is David at

13 Allied.

14 But you are showing a reduction in

15 the incremental markup from the manufacturer.

16 MR. FRANCO: Well, no. This is

17 the whole distribution chain.

18 MR. WINNINGHAM: Okay.

19 MR. FRANCO: So, it would be in

20 terms of if we go back to this, it would be in

21 terms of the wholesaler and mechanical

22 contractor, there is a reduction. In terms of
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1 the manufacturer markup, it remains the same. 

2 It is actually constant.

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Greg.

4 MR. WAGNER: Greg Wagner. So, in

5 terms of economics, we are going to have

6 higher priced products in the marketplace and

7 that is going to lead to lower sales and

8 people taking lower margins. Is that what I

9 understand you saying?

10 MR. FRANCO: Well, in terms of the 

11 -- and we will get to this a little bit in the

12 shipments analysis. But in terms of the

13 contractor, their margins remain the same in

14 terms of profits. It is just that their fixed

15 costs shouldn't be different because of the

16 more efficient equipment.

17 MR. WAGNER: Well but with higher

18 costs, there is going to be lower sales. This

19 is Econ 101. I took that a long, long time

20 ago.

21 So with that increased cost, it

22 increases -- reduces the number of units sold. 
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1 And therefore, lower margins are going to go

2 along with that to make up for that lack of

3 volume. I'm confused how that could be.

4 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Charlie, do

5 you want try this?

6 MR. STEPHENS: I've been doing

7 this a long time. Charlie Stephens.

8 As a consumer, when I pay for a

9 furnace, if I pay for a more efficient

10 furnace, at the end of that distribution

11 chain, I am paying for its shipping; I am

12 paying for its warehousing, maybe more than

13 once; I am paying for whatever cost the

14 contractor has to have it in stock. But there

15 is no incremental cost in any of those things

16 that I just said for a product that doesn't

17 weigh anymore, that isn't any bigger than the

18 one it is replacing. All of those costs of

19 distribution that I have to pay for as a

20 consumer are the same, whether it is a more

21 efficient furnace or a less efficient furnace. 

22 Because the thing doesn't take up any more
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1 warehouse space than the one it is replacing. 

2 It doesn't cost any more to ship it. It is

3 the same size. It weighs the same. All of

4 those costs that I have to pay for at the

5 consumer level are the same for the more

6 efficient product and for the less efficient

7 product.

8 So, there is no incremental cost

9 there for the more efficient product, which is

10 why that markup at the end of the distribution

11 chain where I live as a consumer is smaller

12 than the base markup just to get the furnace

13 there and have warehouse space and have the

14 shipping costs and everything, regardless of

15 what furnace it is and how efficient it is.

16 MR. FRANCO: Those costs are

17 two-thirds of the overall costs?

18 MR. STEPHENS: Some of the costs 

19 two-thirds of the --

20 MR. FRANCO: Is it the

21 distribution?

22 MR. STEPHENS: Well, distribution,
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1 warehousing. There is fixed costs all the way

2 along the way that have nothing to do with how

3 efficient the product is.

4 MR. FRANCO: Right.

5 MR. STEPHENS: Those costs don't

6 change and, therefore, the margins don't

7 change. Now, they could mark it up more if

8 they wanted to but then they would be making

9 more margin on the same costs.

10 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Gary, do you

11 have a comment?

12 MR. CLARK: I just have a quick

13 question.

14 In many cases the different

15 options that are available or being analyzed

16 are currently available in the marketplace. 

17 Did the DOE do any consumer research to in

18 fact kind of validate the math that is going

19 on here? You know, kind of a mystery shopper. 

20 Go out and say I need a new furnace for my

21 house and do that across the country and look

22 at different options and see if it lines up
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1 with this manner?

2 MR. FRANCO: No, DOE did not do

3 this. There are some surveys that get into

4 that. But it is a very specific question.

5 Yes, it would have to be a very

6 specific survey, as you are mentioning.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: I guess I saw

8 Jim first.

9 MR. VER SHAW: A couple questions. 

10 So, if a furnace costs a manufacturer $100 to

11 build, would mark it up to $318. And then

12 what does the two go on?

13 MR. FRANCO: The two goes on on

14 the incremental for the more efficient

15 equipment.

16 MR. VER SHAW: But the more

17 efficient equipment was included in the $100

18 of manufacturer costs. 

19 So, if I build $100 furnace, it is

20 marked up to $300 round numbers. And then if

21 I add $25 in there, is it marked up to $375

22 and then gets more on top of that?
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1 MR. FRANCO: No, no, no. That

2 additional $25 would be at that two value, so

3 it would be $50.

4 MR. VER SHAW: But don't most

5 manufacturers have a gross margin, based on

6 sales that kind of stays the same?

7 MR. FRANCO: Well again, since

8 this is the markup of the whole distribution

9 channel, in terms of --

10 MR. VER SHAW: No, you just said

11 that if I had $100 furnace it would be marked

12 up to $318. And if I added $25 for

13 efficiency, I wouldn't get a 3.18 markup on

14 the $25.

15 MR. FRANCO: So if we go back to

16 the --

17 MR. VER SHAW: Because all of that

18 is costs that I have added into the product

19 but you are not going to let me charge -- get

20 the same markup on that as the other. It had 

21 nothing to do with transportation and all that

22 other stuff.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Chris has a

2 comment.

3 MR. LAU: So the markup to get

4 from your production costs to your sales

5 price, your first customer, is actually taken

6 into account in the manufacturer impact

7 analysis.

8 And then what Victor is presenting

9 is the markup from that MSP all the way to the

10 end user. So they are distinct. Am I

11 correct?

12 MR. FRANCO: Exactly. Yes, and

13 just to go back to your question. So, the

14 markup would be the same. You would have a

15 better response. It is around 1.3 to 1.4 is

16 the actual markup of the manufacturer and that

17 doesn't vary.

18 MR. VER SHAW: All right. I will

19 go read it a little bit closer and figure it

20 out.

21 The other point is that if we have

22 go build bigger furnaces, wider furnaces to
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1 meet the requirement, that is going to

2 increase the shipping costs and the

3 warehousing costs and all the other stuff. 

4 And I am not sure that that should be an

5 incremental, a lower number than the other. 

6 Because you had to do more than just add a

7 different motor and a different set of

8 controls.

9 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Don.

10 MR. BRUNDAGE: Just a quick

11 comment on there not being any incremental

12 costs for shipping more expensive items. The

13 carrying cost of inventory will go up if you

14 have a more expensive item. And the insurance

15 on that inventory will go up if you have a

16 more expensive item.

17 So, it would not go up as much but

18 it would not be a zero increase.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay,

20 Charlie.

21 MR. MC CRUDDEN: Charlie McCrudden

22 ACCA.
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1 Can you go back to slide 47, the

2 distribution channel graphic? Can you define

3 manufacturer for me so I am clear? Is it the

4 manufacturer of the motor or the manufacturer

5 of the furnace?

6 MR. FRANCO: It is the

7 manufacturer of the furnace.

8 MR. MC CRUDDEN: Of the furnace,

9 okay.

10 MR. FRANCO: Yes.

11 MR. MC CRUDDEN: And the words

12 replacement and new construction replacement

13 is a replacement furnace --

14 MR. FRANCO: That's correct, yes.

15 MR. MC CRUDDEN: -- and not a

16 replacement motor.

17 MR. FRANCO: That is correct, yes.

18 MR. MC CRUDDEN: Okay.

19 MR. FRANCO: Yes, that is correct.

20 MR. MC CRUDDEN: Okay.

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane.

22 DR. JAKOBS: So, I just had one
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1 experience where we have a modulating furnace

2 and a long time ago it was a big deal. So it

3 was a premium product. And what happened was

4 an alternate vendor for the control came in

5 and they wanted us to switch controls. And

6 they felt like they knew our cost because they

7 had done this mystery shopper thing. And they

8 got an installed cost and then they

9 backtracked. And they were talking about they 

10 knew the cost of our control and they were way

11 off.

12 And it was really surprising. And

13 all we could think there was a premium on the

14 increased margin at every step for this

15 premium product, even the guy installing

16 charged a premium because it was a premium

17 product. I mean the actual cost of it, what

18 they thought our control cost was like double

19 of what it actually was.

20 So, it is not like increasing the

21 efficiency that the incremental cost goes

22 down. Just in this one experience that I had, 
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1 it seems to have gone up.

2 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Gary.

3 MR. CLARK: Sometimes in the

4 marketplace you see these premiums on higher

5 efficiency or more deluxe products because the

6 complexity of the products in fact increase.

7 And so, in the steps along the

8 channel, there is more training costs, there

9 is more risk, installation risk, more

10 performance risk. And so as they teach you

11 back in Economics 101, because of that risk

12 there is a risk premium that is applied to the

13 products.

14 And so that is why sometimes you

15 see some of those situations. And that is why

16 it would be good to understand how these

17 markups kind of compare to what in fact really

18 happens with distributors and with contractors

19 in the marketplace, so that it as realistic a

20 risk premium being applied as possible.

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Harvey?

22 MR. SACHS: I'm innocent. I never
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1 took --

2 PA ANNOUNCEMENT: May I have your

3 attention please? May I have your attention

4 please?

5 MR. SACHS: No.

6 PA ANNOUNCEMENT: An alarm has

7 been activated in the north building. As a

8 precaution, that building has been evacuated. 

9 At this time, you do not need to evacuate your

10 building.

11 Additional information will be

12 provided after the alarm is resolved.

13 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Is that the

14 north building?

15 PA ANNOUNCEMENT: May I have your attention

16 please? May I have your attention please?

17 An alarm has been activated in the

18 north building. As a precaution, that

19 building has been evacuated. At this time,

20 you do not need to evacuate your building.

21 Additional information will be

22 provided after the alarm is resolved.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

2 PA ANNOUNCEMENT: May I have your

3 attention please? May I have your attention

4 please?

5 An alarm has been activated in the

6 north building. As a precaution, that

7 building has been evacuated. At this time,

8 you do not need to evacuate your building.

9 Additional information will be

10 provided after the alarm is resolved.

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, Harvey,

12 it is your turn.

13 MR. SACHS: Strange forms of

14 competition we get here. Harvey Sachs, ACEEE.

15 With all due respect, we have all

16 had similar issues with premium products and

17 premium services having premium markups. But

18 the situation we are talking about here, it

19 seems to me it differs in two respects. One

20 of them is we are talking about compliance for

21 minimal efficiency with competitive products. 

22 So everybody has it. And the differentiation
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1 of a premium, a higher premium doesn't seem to

2 be part of the calculus on this.

3 Again, I say this as never having

4 had a business course or Eco 101 but I think

5 we need to keep this situation separate.

6 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Andrew.

7 MR. DE LASKI: The other point I

8 would make is that what we see here is the

9 norm for DOE rulemakings. This is pretty

10 similar. This is not an innovation in this

11 docket.

12 So for what it is worth, I mean I

13 understand people's comments but I also think

14 that this is not something they just cooked up

15 in this docket for the first time. And it is

16 a reflection of what we are seeing happening

17 in the marketplace. And a big piece of it, it

18 is a 30-year analysis, right? So, as the

19 technology gets mature, I think the risk

20 premiums go away over time as technology

21 matures.

22 MR. CLARK: Right, which if I were 
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1 -- sorry. Gary Clark.

2 I agree and I would build that

3 into the model, what you just described. 

4 There will be more trouble at first with

5 contractors and with distribution. And so

6 that risk premium would be higher at the

7 beginning of the implementation phase and then

8 reduce over time. And it seems like that

9 would be appropriate to include in a

10 calculation like this, if you are really

11 changing something as significantly as this

12 is.

13 And so, --

14 MR. DE LASKI: And it also reduces

15 sales. The increase in cost will reduce the

16 number of items sold.

17 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Final

18 comments on the markups shown in slide 48 and

19 49? Yes, Charlie.

20 MR. STEPHENS: Charlie Stephens. 

21 Yes, I don't think we can presume, unless you

22 have got somewhere in the analysis later, and
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1 sometimes this does come in later, about what

2 the price elasticity for furnaces but where I

3 live, it is pretty low, especially for

4 replacement furnaces. No one is not going to

5 buy a furnace because it costs $100 more or

6 $200 more when the heat exchanger has holes in

7 it and it is 30 degrees outside and they need

8 a new furnace.

9 But there will be a price

10 elasticity for furnaces and you could maybe

11 presume that there is some price elasticity. 

12 I hope that is taken into account in the

13 shipments analysis. I don't know whether they

14 do or not.

15 MR. VER SHAW: Yes, Jim VerShaw,

16 one more comment.

17 MR. STEPHENS: Yes, and I don't

18 think, you know based on our own experience in

19 the field with these things, we found

20 technicians out there who literally see so

21 little difference in some of these TSLs from

22 a standard base furnace, that they don't
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1 actually know that they are dealing with it. 

2 They don't even know that that it has a

3 different motor in it. They just follow the

4 manufacturer's instructions for setting it up

5 and to them, it doesn't look a whole lot

6 different. So, I don't think we are talking

7 about a major technological leap here at some

8 TSLs. Not necessarily all TSLs and we hope

9 that if it is different in some of the upper

10 levels that that is taken into account. But

11 that is not true for every TSL here.

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

13 you.

14 MR. VER SHAW: Jim VerShaw. The

15 thing we have to look out for is that if we

16 drive the base cost and, therefore, the

17 selling price to the homeowner up high enough,

18 they are going to be looking at repairing even

19 heat exchanger, you can get a new heat

20 exchanger assembly and put in and most people

21 have lifetime heat exchanger warranties

22 anyway. So you have to be careful of that.
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1 Look at what happened when RF-22

2 was "banned" and all of a sudden people were

3 buying replacement outdoor units with no

4 charge in them at all that they could use

5 their R-22 system because they didn't want to

6 replacement system and go to 410-A. And the

7 same number of sales that dropped when we went

8 from 10 to 13 on SEER, it all drove lower

9 sales and more repair, which bends the curve

10 here on the energy savings. Because not only

11 do you not get the electrical savings but you

12 are not going to get the gas savings that you

13 would get if you go to the higher efficiency

14 furnaces than what is out there.

15 So it is important to understand

16 the balance here. I want to make sure that

17 when we go through this that we have done the

18 analysis correctly and we understand fully the

19 effect on cost, the effect of energy savings. 

20 And I think if we get more data to the folks

21 working on it, they will see where we are and

22 maybe we can get to the right point, such that
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1 we get the right standard developed here.

2 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, we are

3 moving on here, shortly. Harvey.

4 MR. SACHS: Harvey Sachs, ACEEE.

5 Jim, I have looked at the Hardy

6 and AHRI data on the SEER 10 to 13 transition. 

7 And leaving out the R-22 issue, where I think

8 everyone admits EPA screwed up badly, I find

9 that much of the difference in sales late

10 2005-2006, or was it 2006-2007, really

11 reflects the difference in the run-up in sales

12 of SEER 10 units and their warehousing for

13 sales in the SEER 13 year.

14 And if you really integrate those

15 curves -- we go offline on that. But I just

16 want to make sure the record shows that I

17 didn't roll over and say yes to that.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: So now we are

19 moving on to energy use characterization.

20 MR. FRANCO: Thank you for those

21 comments. Now we are moving to the energy use

22 characterization, energy use analysis.
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1 Essentially, we are trying to

2 calculate the field energy consumption of

3 furnace fans for each household in our

4 analysis. For furnace fans, we are

5 calculating the energy use, different

6 operating modes, heating, cooling, and

7 constant circulation.

8 To do this, we need to first

9 calculate the furnace fan power at those

10 operating modes and match that to the furnace

11 fan operating hours at those specific

12 operating modes. I will go into more detail

13 in later slides about furnace power and

14 furnace fan operating hours.

15 In addition to this, DOE includes

16 the impact of furnace fan and AC energy use. 

17 This includes the impact of more efficient

18 furnace fans on overall energy use of

19 household space conditioning equipment, as

20 well as the impact of standby energy use for

21 more efficient furnace fans.

22 Again, this is a summary of the
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1 changes between the preliminary analysis and

2 the NOPR analysis for each of the primary

3 inputs for the energy use.

4 First we have the furnace fan

5 sizing. Essentially, the furnace fan is sized

6 depending on the square footage of the

7 household; that is, we are being looked at;

8 the outer design temperature of the location

9 of that household; and we match that to the

10 shipments by capacity.

11 For the NOPR analysis, the

12 household sample was changed from RECS 2005 to

13 RECS 2009 data and there was a slight change

14 in the methodology requirements for heating

15 and cooling, which I will go to more detail in

16 in the subsequent slides.

17 The furnace fans performance

18 curves were also updated with new data. And

19 this is the data that was used for engineering

20 analysis. Primarily, it is from manufacturers

21 specifications but also includes some test

22 data and data that was gathered based on
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1 comments.

2 Next we have the system curves. 

3 The system curves come from -- are based on 27

4 field studies, representing 1300 data points. 

5 There were no changes to these values or data

6 for this analysis. There were slight changes

7 of how that was mapped to the household, which

8 I will explain further.

9 Yes?

10 DR. JAKOBS: This is Diane from

11 Rheem. It says Max ESP set to 1.2 inch water 

12 column. Is that like selected data points in

13 your analysis? That is not the test standard

14 is it?

15 MR. FRANCO: No. I will go into

16 that.

17 DR. JAKOBS: Okay.

18 MR. FRANCO: So, that is the next

19 point.

20 So the other change was in the

21 preliminary analysis we set a maximum of one

22 external static pressure to be our maximum
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1 that would be that households would go to

2 because we weren't as confident in terms of

3 our curves going beyond one external static

4 pressure.

5 There is field data. There are

6 some households that go beyond one. With

7 improved performance curves, we do go to 1.2. 

8 There are not a lot of households that go but

9 we allow households to go beyond, up to 1.2

10 internal static pressure.

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Steve

12 Rosenstock.

13 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock. 

14 Yes, I saw you have impact on furnace and AC

15 equipment energy use, the impact of more

16 efficient fans on gas and air conditioning

17 use. What about the impact of higher

18 efficiency furnaces and air conditioners and

19 heat pumps on the fan energy use? Was that

20 accounted for?

21 MR. FRANCO: This is related to

22 heat pumps.
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1 MR. ROSENSTOCK: And air

2 conditioners and furnaces. If you have a 90

3 AFUE furnace going to 14 SEER air conditioner

4 and heat pump, reducing the operating hours of

5 the fan, especially in existing homes, they

6 are going to cycle off more because they will

7 meet the indoor conditions quicker.

8 MR. FRANCO: That is correct. 

9 Yes, that is taken into account. Correct.

10 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay, thank you.

11 MR. FRANCO: So, if there is no

12 more questions, I'll move on. Heating and

13 cooling operating hours were updated to

14 include the new sample, RECS 2009 and also we

15 have updated the adjustment factors. I will

16 explain what those are in a separate slide

17 with the latest data.

18 The continuous operating hours or

19 based on Minnesota and Wisconsin survey data

20 and adjusted to represent national numbers. 

21 There was no change to this analysis for this

22 rulemaking and this matches the furnace fan
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1 test procedure assumptions.

2 DOE did add sensitivities to see

3 how the effects of less household using

4 continuous fan would have on the LCC results. 

5 And those are included in Appendix 8-H.

6 In addition, there is a reference

7 to recent national survey that is included

8 there. I will have a little bit more

9 information about continuous fan in a separate

10 slide.

11 Again, the impact of the furnace

12 fan AC energy consumption was not changed from

13 the preliminary analysis.

14 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Don Brundage.

15 MR. BRUNDAGE: Is your use of the

16 furnace fan being driven totally by the need

17 to meet the heating load?

18 MR. FRANCO: That is one of them;

19 heating load, cooling load, and also the

20 continuous fan operation. Those are the three

21 modes. 

22 But in terms of heating, yes, it
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1 is to meet the heating load.

2 MR. BRUNDAGE: Okay. What I was

3 thinking was you are looking at Minnesota and

4 Wisconsin data. In more temperate climates,

5 you are often having times that fans are used

6 just for ventilation mode in homes without

7 having any heating or cooling. Are you making

8 assumptions on that based on the Minnesota and

9 Wisconsin data or are you adjusting that for

10 assuming more ventilation hours without

11 heating in more temperate climates?

12 MR. FRANCO: Yes, that is correct. 

13 For the Minnesota to Wisconsin, DOE believes

14 that those are not representative of the

15 country as a whole. So, DOE didn't make

16 adjustments to those operating hours to

17 reflect different climates. And those, you

18 can find those assumptions in the TSD as well

19 as in the test procedure. Those are the same

20 assumptions.

21 MR. BRUNDAGE: Okay.

22 MR. FRANCO: So hopefully this
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1 slide helps a little bit to again reemphasize

2 what we were talking about in terms of

3 calculating the energy use of the fan. And we 

4 will go to a graphical representation.

5 But first of all, we start here

6 with this blue household furnace fan energy

7 use. That is what we are trying to calculate. 

8 We take into account the impact of the furnace

9 fan energy use, as we have already talked. 

10 And we also do calculate the operating hours

11 and power at each operating mode. We have the

12 power and operating hours.

13 If you go to the power

14 calculation, you need to develop furnace fan

15 performance curves for each product class and

16 efficiency level and match that to the system

17 curve that is for each individual household.

18 For the operating hours, we have

19 the heating and cooling operating hours that

20 come from the RECS 2009 data and the constant

21 fan, as I talked about that come from the

22 survey and the adjustments that we assume for
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1 national.

2 So first, I will talk about the

3 power.

4 MR. VER SHAW: This is Jim

5 VerShaw. Quick question. So this is where

6 the 1.2 comes in? The system curve actually

7 goes up to 1.2 to get to 2000?

8 MR. FRANCO: That is correct, yes. 

9 Yes, and there are some households that do

10 that.

11 MR. VER SHAW: I'm not sure that

12 there are many furnaces that will give you

13 2000 CFM at 1.2 inches of static.

14 MR. FRANCO: That is correct, yes. 

15 Usually, the CFM at that is much reduced. So

16 you might get like, if you are in cooling

17 mode, you might get like 300 CFM per ton and

18 that might be below. But that is the --

19 MR. VER SHAW: I'm sorry, I cut

20 you off but I understand.

21 Another question. I see you have 

22 got cooling as the highest speed tap. There
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1 are a number of furnaces out there that

2 require more air for heating than they do for

3 the rated cooling.

4 MR. FRANCO: Yes.

5 MR. VER SHAW: So how do you --

6 when you do the FER, do you put heating in

7 twice or do you use the cooling for the

8 heating or what do you do?

9 MR. FRANCO: So I will go into

10 more details on that but yes, you are correct.

11 MR. VER SHAW: Okay.

12 MR. FRANCO: Depending on the

13 household, you actually have to meet the needs

14 of the household. There are some households

15 that we have modeled such that the heating is

16 the highest level and the cooling is whatever

17 is appropriate for that household. So if they

18 need --

19 MR. VER SHAW: Well actually that

20 was more of a procedural question. If I was

21 going to create an FER and my heating air flow

22 was higher than my cooling air flow, then cube
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1 max becomes cube heat. And I have to use cube

2 max twice?

3 MR. JASINSKI: This is Sam

4 Jasinski, Navigant Consulting.

5 Yes, Jim, you bring up a very good

6 question and I think it is one that is an

7 important distinction to make in that Victor

8 is talking about the energy use analysis,

9 which is very different than -- it is related

10 to and consistent with but different than how

11 the rating metric is calculated.

12 So, to answer Jim's question about

13 what is done for the rating metric FER in

14 instances where the maximum might be a heating

15 setting, in the test procedure SNOPR, DOE

16 proposed that if the maximum setting is

17 designated for heating, then that setting

18 could be used. And as Jim stated, in the FER

19 equation, E-max and E-heat would be

20 equivalent. So essentially, you would put in

21 that energy consumption twice.

22 For the other variation on that is
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1 if the maximum setting is designated for

2 cooling only, then that would be reflective of

3 a situation where those two energy

4 consumptions would be different. So E-max

5 would be different than E-heat.

6 MR. FRANCO: So I just wanted to

7 go over this a little bit. Hopefully, this

8 will help the understanding.

9 Obviously, this is a simplified

10 version of what we did in analysis. But

11 basically here what is represented is the

12 system curve, which is the purple line, which

13 is you going from zero up to about 1600 CFM. 

14 And then you see the intersection of the above

15 three curves, each representing different

16 airflow speed setting.

17 And just for this example, the

18 cooling is the top. The red represents the

19 heating. And the green represents the

20 continuous fan. 

21 Obviously, depending on the model,

22 these settings would be different but this is
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1 just to illustrate the analysis.

2 These curves represent technology,

3 PSC. That is why they have this airflow

4 curve. And now as you can see, the

5 intersection between let's look at the

6 cooling, which is the blue line and the

7 purple. That is our operating point.

8 And so for this example, the

9 operating point is around 0.6 external static

10 pressure. So, if we go down and follow that

11 dashed line, and we hit the blue curve, there

12 are these linear decreasing curves, that is

13 the watts per external static pressure. And

14 so where the dashed line meets that blue line,

15 that will give us the watts for that operating

16 mode.

17 So, in this case, for cooling,

18 that is around 500 watts, 550 watts. And then

19 we can do the same for heating, around 400,

20 and the same for continuous fan, a little bit

21 lower than that, maybe 350.

22 So again, to emphasize what was
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1 done to produce the performance curves, first,

2 DOE gathered data that was used in the

3 engineering analysis. That includes

4 particular literature data, as well as test

5 data, and data from stakeholders.

6 Based on that data, we were able

7 generate airflow and watts per external static

8 pressure, curves, performance curves. And

9 then once the engineering analysis was

10 completed, we matched these curves to the FER

11 values. And that gives us all the different

12 product classes and furnace fan sizes.

13 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane.

14 DR. JAKOBS: Okay, I just want to

15 point out that what we are actually talking

16 about in the test procedure will be a little

17 bit different, where we are going to set it up

18 at a specific static at the highest airflow. 

19 And then we are just going to change the fan

20 speed. And whatever static you get is what

21 you get.

22 So, it is going to be a little
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1 different. If I was going to calculate it

2 mathematically, I mean this is the way to do

3 it, there is an assumption in here the

4 parabola that you call the system curve.

5 MR. FRANCO: Exactly, yes.

6 DR. JAKOBS: And that is a common

7 assumption. But I don't really know if it is

8 a good assumption. I just know it is a common

9 assumption. But there will be -- what

10 manufacturers are actually going to do in

11 their test procedure will be different than

12 what you assumed for the analysis.

13 MR. FRANCO: That's correct, yes.

14 So again, it goes back to the test

15 procedure metric versus the field use. What

16 we have done here for the field is tried to

17 simulate a field operation. There are some

18 studies that show the actual model that was

19 being tested in the field, the static

20 pressure, as well as the watts that are

21 generated.

22 From that, we could compare the
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1 system curve for those units and, in essence,

2 it is very similar to what we are doing.

3 DR. JAKOBS: Okay, just one more

4 point. Actually because I was on a committee

5 in Canada, too, that in the states when people

6 design duct work, usually the most airflow is

7 the in cooling speed. So hopefully, people

8 design their duct work for the cooling speed. 

9 Where in Canada, if you have a heating-only

10 market, you would be designing your duct work

11 for the heating airflow, which these days are

12 getting closer but there is kind of a climatic

13 difference in how the duct work is designed.

14 MR. FRANCO: Correct. Thank you.

15 DR. JAKOBS: Thank you.

16 MR. FRANCO: So moving on, these

17 are -- we wanted to make sure that our

18 performance curves meet criteria that are

19 usually found in furnace models. So for

20 example, the cooling mode generate typically

21 manufacturer specifications are that they are

22 400 CFM per ton at 0.5 inches water column. 
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1 And so we make sure that all the curves meet

2 that criteria.

3 For the heating mode, we take into

4 account two criteria. First, we look at the

5 fraction of the cooling mode that is found in

6 various models that we looked at, as well as

7 the minimum static pressure in the test

8 procedure to meet the airflow requirements in

9 the test procedure.

10 Next, we look at the continuous

11 fan and we look at the fraction of the cooling

12 airflow as well, based on models.

13 Next, the furnace fan is sized to

14 take into account the heating and cooling

15 requirements of the household, based again on 

16 the household square footage, the heating and

17 cooling outdoor design temperature, and the

18 historical furnace AC shipments by capacity.

19 MR. HUNT: Hi, this is Marshall

20 Hunt, PG and E. On the slide 56, you cannot,

21 in my experience in teaching a lot of people

22 manual DACCA, you cannot design an air
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1 conditioning system with a furnace external

2 static pressure of 0.5. By the time you get

3 in the coil, the wet coil, the filter, you

4 have nothing left for ducts. 

5 So and why isn't that 0.65 like we

6 have in the rating of the furnace fans?

7 MR. FRANCO: No, that is a good

8 point. This is the furnace fan. That is how

9 it is being designed by the manufacturers. In

10 the field, you do encounter that 0.65 is a

11 common -- that the system presents 0.65. This

12 is just the setting up the performance curves,

13 not what is actually being installed in the

14 field.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Gary.

16 MR. CLARK: Just a quick question

17 once again on the half-inch external static

18 pressure. You have a note that says that it

19 is actually lower in manufactured homes. Is

20 that right?

21 MR. FRANCO: That is correct, yes.

22 MR. CLARK: And do you have data
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1 that would support that?

2 MR. FRANCO: The manufactured

3 homes that we were looking at seemed to

4 indicate that that was the rating. These are

5 more manufactured home furnaces that are sized

6 for manufactured home.

7 There are some models that are

8 actually the same as residential but they are

9 sold as manufactured home. They may have a

10 slightly different rating. But the typical

11 old size that are actually taller, they fit

12 this criteria.

13 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Charlie.

14 MR. STEPHENS: Charlie Stephens. 

15 I can actually explain that.

16 Manufactured home furnaces,

17 generally they are electrical forced air

18 furnaces, not all but most, have no return

19 ducting. So there is no external static

20 component on the return side at all.

21 MR. CLARK: Yes, I understand how

22 they are installed and how they are designed.
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1 MR. STEPHENS: Actually, that

2 comes from measurements on our side. So these

3 numbers are actually quite consistent with

4 what we have measured in hundreds of

5 manufactured homes over the period of 20 years

6 out where we are. So, we are actually quite

7 supportive of those numbers.

8 MR. CLARK: Well, my experience

9 over the past 30 plus years is that

10 manufactured homes have higher external static

11 pressure than the typical site-built home in

12 the preponderance of cases. So maybe you have

13 something unusual out your way.

14 MR. STEPHENS: We have a lot of

15 measurements in the field of homes that are up

16 to 40 years old and they are pretty consistent

17 with what we are seeing right here.

18 MR. CLARK: Likewise.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

20 MR. FRANCO: So, moving on, to

21 additional points.

22 So for each household we are
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1 making sure that the temperature rise for

2 heating is within the specifications. If not,

3 then the airflow setting is adjusted so that

4 it meets that. 

5 The cooling airflow, similarly, is

6 adjusted so that it lies between 300 to 500

7 CFM per ton. On average, we are getting

8 between 350 and 450. That is kind of the

9 range for these households but we do allow for

10 a little bit wider range.

11 So, this is in summary of an

12 example for one of the performance curves. 

13 The other performance curves are available in

14 the TSD. I know this is a little bit hard to

15 look at here. Hopefully, in the printed

16 version it is a little bit easier. 

17 This is just one of the operating

18 modes. This is for heating. And this is for

19 specific product class, non-weatherized,

20 non-condensing, at 3-ton. And the TSD we have

21 for the different tons and other product

22 classes.
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1 So, as you can see here, the first

2 slide is external static pressure versus CFM. 

3 These are the airflow performance curves and

4 for each technology.

5 So, I will go briefly for the

6 color scheme of this. So, we have the first

7 EL 0, essentially the baseline EL 1, our PSC

8 motors. And they actually overlap. So what

9 you would see is the red curve. That is the

10 airflow for that.

11 The next is the green, which

12 represents the PSC with controls. After that,

13 we have the PPM constant torque, which is

14 represented at EL3 and EL4. They actually

15 both overlap and those are represented by the

16 straighter line, the sloped line; that is the

17 light blue.

18 And finally, we also have the BPM

19 variable speed, which are the flatter lines on

20 top, which kind of grayish blue color. They

21 also overlap.

22 Next on your right we have the --
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1 or your left, we have the CFM per watts versus

2 external static pressure. And as you can see,

3 the higher efficiency in general have a better

4 watts per CFM, versus PSC and PSC with

5 controls.

6 And finally, we have watts per

7 external static pressure. And this is what

8 essentially we use. Depending on the external

9 static pressure, you would be using these

10 watts for these different technologies.

11 So next, I will talk about

12 operating hours. So, as we discussed before,

13 we have the power and then we multiply that

14 times operating hours to get our energy use.

15 So the first part is we were

16 calculating heating and cooling operating

17 hours. And essentially, we are using this

18 equation. We have the furnace on time ratio

19 that takes into account the blower on and

20 blower off periods. And we also have the

21 heating and cooling load, which comes from the

22 RECS 2009 households divided by the alpha
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1 capacity, either heating or cooling. And that

2 gives us our operating hours. And then we

3 adjust, we have adjustment factors which I

4 will expand.

5 So, in terms of adjustment

6 factors, we had just for greater building

7 shell efficiency in the future, this is based

8 on AEO 2012 Building Efficiency Index. We

9 also adjust for average climate conditions,

10 based on the 10-year NOAA climate data.

11 The RECS 2009 data is also

12 adjusted to take into account non-furnace fan

13 energy use. And the operating hours also take

14 into account the heat produced by the motor. 

15 In the analysis, we assumed that 95 percent of

16 the heat is useful heat from the motors.

17 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

18 Edison Electric Institute. Just a quick one

19 on that one. So, if the motor is using let's

20 just use a nice easy number, one kilowatt

21 hours using that 0.94 kilowatt hours is heat

22 that will be used in the stream in the heating
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1 that is available to add heat for the heating

2 system?

3 MR. FRANCO: That's correct.

4 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay, I just

5 wanted to double check what you meant by that

6 94 percent. Thank you very much.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Jim.

8 MR. VER SHAW: Jim VerShaw. So,

9 on the first bullet adjusting heat load

10 building shell efficiency, so are you assuming

11 that most of these furnaces will go into new

12 construction? What was your split between

13 houses that don't get upgraded to houses that

14 do?

15 MR. FRANCO: So it depends on

16 product class. But if we look at the sort of

17 the larger part of class of condensing and

18 non-condensing it is about I believe 80 to 20

19 percent; 80 percent are replacements, 20

20 percent are new construction.

21 If you go to other product

22 classes, that varies.
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1 MR. VER SHAW: So how did that

2 adjusting for the building shell efficiency,

3 how did that --

4 MR. FRANCO: So the AEO 2012 data

5 comes for in terms of retrofits and new

6 construction. In terms of retrofits, there is

7 an adjustment factor. I believe it is about

8 0.93. And for new construction it is, I don't

9 remember exactly but it is different,

10 definitely different. I think it is 0.95. So

11 it is a different adjustment factor.

12 And the details are provided in

13 the appendix in terms of what those factors

14 are.

15 Finally, we have the continuous

16 fan operating mode hours. And based on the

17 surveys and our adjustments to that survey

18 data, we come up with nationally 11 percent of

19 households use continuous circulation either

20 at some time or throughout the year.

21 DOE conducted sensitivity

22 analysis, assuming nine percent and five
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1 percent of households use continuous

2 circulation and provides the results for the

3 LCC analysis in Appendix, it should read 8-H.

4 In this appendix, we also provide

5 a reference to recent national survey which

6 was actually just became available September

7 2003, which was showing 19 percent of

8 households using continuous circulation.

9 Do you have a question?

10 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

11 Edison Electric Institute. 

12 So this is how you came up with

13 what we see in the NOPR, the 1870 hours as the

14 national average in Table 3.3 or III.3?

15 MR. FRANCO: Oh, this is in the

16 TSD?

17 MR. ROSENSTOCK: No, in the NOPR.

18 MR. FRANCO: Oh, in the NOPR, yes.

19 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Using this

20 information, that is how you came up with the

21 1870 as a national average for single stage

22 systems?
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1 MR. FRANCO: Actually, that is

2 from the test procedure analysis.

3 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay.

4 MR. FRANCO: And that is actually

5 using RECS 2005 data. It is very similar. We

6 did the similar adjustments and that is just

7 an average.

8 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay.

9 MR. FRANCO: When we are doing

10 this analysis, it might be slightly -- it is

11 probably slightly different because it is

12 using RECS 2009 but it is very close.

13 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay.

14 MR. FRANCO: So it is not exactly

15 1870 but it is pretty similar.

16 MR. ROSENSTOCK: So in terms of

17 this continuous mode operation, obviously

18 there is a huge difference between five and 19

19 percent. What did DOE decide to do in terms

20 of this factor?

21 MR. FRANCO: So DOE is using 11

22 percent.
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1 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Eleven.

2 MR. FRANCO: This new study, DOE

3 wasn't able to fully review. It just came out

4 late September. It is showing 19 percent but

5 obviously, that includes people that are using

6 it not as much and some people are using it

7 quite a bit.

8 So, we don't know how comparable

9 those are to the results that we were using

10 before.

11 MR. BRUNDAGE: So let me make sure

12 I understand what you are saying. You are

13 saying 11 percent of households have none zero

14 hours for using the fan for general

15 circulation and there is a distribution of how

16 many hours those 11 percent use the fan for

17 circulation.

18 MR. FRANCO: That is correct.

19 MR. BRUNDAGE: Okay.

20 MR. FRANCO: So essentially, for

21 example if you are in the north it might be

22 like half, a little bit less than half of
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1 those would be using continuous fan the whole

2 year. Then the rest would be some that maybe

3 are using it only in the heating season, maybe

4 only in the cooling season and maybe only for

5 short periods of time. So there is a

6 distribution of operating hours.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Great. Go

8 ahead, Marshall.

9 MR. HUNT: Is it held constant

10 over the analysis period?

11 MR. FRANCO: It is held constant

12 for the analysis period.

13 MR. HUNT: At 11 percent?

14 MR. FRANCO: Yes.

15 MR. HUNT: So I guess would -- I

16 guess my observation would be that the new

17 data suggests that the 11 percent number is

18 conservative. And I urge the Department to

19 carefully evaluate it as you prepare the final

20 rule.

21 MR. FRANCO: We will take that

22 into account.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Greg.

2 MR. WAGNER: This is Greg Wagner. 

3 What percentage of that circulation mode is in

4 the cooling season versus heating season?

5 MR. FRANCO: I don't recall

6 exactly but it depends on what part of the

7 country you are as well. So, it is again

8 based on these surveys and it varies by

9 region, we assume.

10 MR. WAGNER: So that is accounted

11 for then with heating hours taken out of the

12 equation because that heat is being used to

13 heat the structure?

14 MR. FRANCO: Exactly, yes.

15 MR. WAGNER: So, in your model

16 those would be accounted for but the cooling

17 hours are not because of the SEER and HSPF?

18 MR. FRANCO: That is correct, yes.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Don.

20 MR. BRUNDAGE: Just a final note. 

21 If you are assuming a greater percentage of

22 variable speed fans in the future, that is
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1 going to cut the need for constant

2 circulation. So, that needs to be accounted

3 for in the study.

4 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

5 you. Let's proceed with the summary results.

6 MR. FRANCO: So, the next slide

7 includes the summary results. Here, we just

8 have the summary results for non-condensing

9 furnaces and condensing furnace product

10 classes. And as you can see from here we have

11 all the efficiency levels. We have the

12 results designated by annual electricity total

13 use, then the electricity use savings. And in

14 addition, we have the additional fuel use. 

15 And this is in million BTUs versus the other

16 ones in kilowatt hours just so that you can

17 compare those dollars. And we have

18 non-condensing/condensing.

19 As you can see, the results are

20 different for those two regions, based on the

21 fact that you will have more heating or

22 cooling, depending on those two product
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1 classes.

2 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Steve

3 Rosenstock.

4 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

5 Edison Electric Institute.

6 I am looking at the slide and

7 then, of course, I love to match numbers. So

8 I went back to slide 31, which had the -- this

9 is back in the engineering analysis for a

10 non-weatherized gas furnace, non-condensing

11 with the FER calculation for the baseline

12 showing 430 watts or 476 watts in terms of

13 baseline usage for those furnace fans.

14 When I look at the -- again, going

15 back to NOPR, I don't know how many -- if it

16 is a single-stage system 1870 hours, I am

17 getting 804 kilowatt hours to 890 kilowatt

18 hours per year in the baseline, not 1014. 

19 Are you assuming a lot more

20 operating hours for this analysis, compared to

21 what you are showing in the NOPR? I have a

22 couple more questions after that.
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1 MR. FRANCO: Sure. You can go to

2 the LCC spreadsheet and actually the best --

3 there might be -- in Chapter 7, there might be

4 operating hours that is aggregated by

5 operating mode. And you could add those up. 

6 I believe those add up to around 1870.

7 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Yes, I know I am

8 just using one or two data points just seeing

9 that again, you know, just kind of based on

10 the numbers I am seeing, it would seem like

11 the baseline PSC usage seems a little higher

12 than what I am seeing in the NOPR and the

13 earlier part of the --

14 Just again, I am trying to compare

15 the operating hours and the watts that you are

16 saying under the FER. I don't know if there

17 is something else going on.

18 MR. FRANCO: Let me just bring one

19 additional -- this takes into account

20 different sizes. So you would --

21 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Different sizes,

22 okay.
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1 MR. FRANCO: -- have to have a

2 shipment weighted by size.

3 MR. ROSENSTOCK: A shipment

4 weighted average, okay.

5 But I was using 1200 and 2000 CFM

6 and I was getting 890 when I am using the 2000

7 CFM number with the FER.

8 MR. FRANCO: Actually the shipment

9 weighted would be closer to about 3.3 tons,

10 which is --

11 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay, which is

12 closer to 1200 CFM.

13 MR. FRANCO: It would be higher

14 than 1200. So it would be like maybe 1300.

15 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay, 1300.

16 MR. FRANCO: And you should be

17 getting close to the 1000.

18 MR. ROSENSTOCK: It actually is

19 1300 in the FER equation. At the 1870 hours,

20 you are close to 820 kilowatt hours per year.

21 MR. FRANCO: Yes.

22 MR. ROSENSTOCK: The higher the
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1 CFM, the higher the watts.

2 MR. FRANCO: I'm sorry?

3 MR. ROSENSTOCK: The higher the

4 CFM, the higher the watts. If you are at 1330

5 it is going to be closer to like 440 watts,

6 rather than 476 watts times the operating

7 hours.

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Where is this

9 data?

10 MR. FRANCO: I'm sorry?

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: The --

12 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Oh, it's in the

13 LCC. I will try to review the LCC. But

14 again, just looking at this data here.

15 The next question I had was it

16 says electric use savings. Now, I am at

17 additional fuel use. When I look at some of

18 these, I see, for example, improved PSC versus

19 inverter-driven PSC. You go from 119 to 268

20 kilowatt hours' savings. So that you double

21 the kilowatt hour savings but the additional

22 fuel use is only up by about seven percent. 
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1 How is that possible?

2 MR. FRANCO: This has to do with

3 the curve, how the curve interacts with the

4 system curve. So if we went back to the

5 curves, depending on the data that we get in

6 terms of system curves is primarily PSC

7 motors. So from that, you would have to find

8 the intersection of that curve.

9 As you can see here, you would

10 actually, if you are around here, you would be

11 higher watts. So, there would be less of them

12 in fact in terms of heating.

13 MR. ROSENSTOCK: So you are saying 

14 the motor-driven would cause a higher external

15 static pressure?

16 MR. FRANCO: No, no, no. If, for

17 example, say you are operating around this

18 region, then you would potentially about the

19 same watts.

20 MR. ROSENSTOCK: But you are

21 showing twice as much energy savings.

22 MR. FRANCO: And that might come
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1 from continuous fan circulation and it could

2 also come for the constant. It just depends

3 on how you are matching up the --

4 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay. Because --

5 MR. FRANCO: But you have to

6 realize that these curves are very, very

7 different. So when you are matching that to

8 the system curve, which is fixed, of that

9 household, then it results in --

10 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Yes, it just

11 seemed counter-intuitive. When you look at

12 these numbers, it is like wait a minute, there

13 should be kind of an analogy between the

14 energy savings and the additional fuel use. 

15 And you are seeing different numbers and

16 different percentages. You know, it is like

17 you go from 539 to 543 kilowatt hours saved

18 between constant-torque BPM multi-staging and

19 then you have lower additional fuel use. It

20 just seemed kind of counter to me.

21 And also when I did my

22 calculation, if you say 539 kilowatt hours
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1 times 3413 times 94 percent useful heat, I get

2 1.73 million BTUs that you might need of

3 additional fuel use. And you are showing

4 0.54. And that is before -- that is just the

5 raw energy.

6 And then of course for the furnace

7 efficiency of 0.8, you would need 2.16 million

8 BTUs. Again, and you have got 0.54, so I

9 didn't know -- I couldn't figure out what was

10 going on.

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane.

12 MR. ROSENSTOCK: This is just

13 heating-only mode. Right? Right, this is just

14 heating-only mode.

15 MR. FRANCO: These results?

16 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Yes.

17 MR. FRANCO: No, these results are

18 the total.

19 MR. ROSENSTOCK: These are

20 annualized, okay.

21 MR. FRANCO: This is the total

22 energy. Sorry about the confusion. Yes. 
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1 This is total so it includes operating

2 heating, cooling, and continuous fan

3 operation.

4 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Right, okay. 

5 Thanks. 

6 DR. JAKOBS: Diane Jakobs from

7 Rheem. 

8 And if we go to the next slide

9 again, with the summary of results.

10 MR. FRANCO: Sure.

11 DR. JAKOBS: I noticed back when I

12 was at home that the constant-torque BPM motor

13 and the constant-airflow BPM motor, the

14 savings are really close to each other and,

15 within the accuracy of this analysis, I would

16 consider them the same.

17 So one of the things that were --

18 one of the assumptions that were discussed in

19 the technical support document was this

20 roll-up, everyone at a high efficiency level

21 would continue to buy that at that level. And

22 the lower efficiency, the volume where people
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1 are buying lower efficiency, it would roll up.

2 But I really think that people

3 will realize, just as the technical support

4 document said that it wasn't economically

5 justified to have a constant air flow BPM

6 motor, anyone who is just focused on energy

7 savings eventually is going to figure out that

8 they can get the same thing for a lot less

9 money with the constant-torque motor.

10 MR. FRANCO: Just a quick response

11 to that. So, these are average results. And

12 we are looking at a distribution of results. 

13 So there are a fraction of households that

14 actually do benefit and benefit quite

15 significantly, especially if they are in the

16 lower end of the external static pressure

17 distribution. For the households that are in

18 the higher end, yes, they wouldn't benefit. 

19 And that is taken into account in the LCC

20 analysis.

21 And in the LCC results, you can

22 see how many people are net benefit/net cost. 
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1 That is taken into account.

2 DR. JAKOBS: That has been one of

3 the concerns that I think utilities haven't

4 been able to predict how much savings there is

5 for their rebate programs. So, a consumer is

6 not going to know whether they have good duct

7 work or bad duct work. Certainly, the guy who

8 installed it told them that it was good. 

9 I don't know if -- it is not

10 something that people can really control when

11 they make their purchasing decision.

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Harvey Sachs.

13 DR. JAKOBS: Oh, I can't call on

14 you.

15 MR. SACHS: You can call on me for

16 anything you want. Harvey Sachs, ACEEE.

17 If we look back about five years

18 before the time at which we had the large

19 incentives for ECM motors, we did have

20 substantial sales. And I would suggest that

21 AHR had a press release one day that pointed

22 out that incremental cost was about $1,000 per
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1 unit for the ECMs.

2 To the best of my knowledge, these

3 were sold as amenity, much more than for

4 energy efficiency. And the constant air flow

5 unit will still offer many advantages, as I

6 understand it, over the so-called X13. And I

7 believe that even furnaces are sold to some

8 people with amenity in mind and I am not the

9 only one. So, I am not sure.

10 So from my perspective, and Paul,

11 turn your ears off, the X13 is sort of a

12 crippled ECM that doesn't offer these

13 value-added amenities, particularly in terms

14 of very good humidity control and speed

15 matching with the air conditioning compressor

16 or the flame.

17 So, I am not sure that I have put

18 a lot of stock in the small difference in

19 savings between the BPM and the

20 constant-airflow unit just as we seem to see

21 a lot of people buying luxury cars that don't

22 get better mileage.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes?

2 DR. JAKOBS: I think if they

3 experience -- I am an engineer. My husband is

4 an engineer. A lot of people in my family are

5 engineers. Trying to figure out like the AHRI 

6 data base, it is a big purchase. I have had

7 friends call and kind of walk them through it

8 on the phone to figure out. The people, they

9 are looking at -- I mean engineers, they are

10 looking at their savings. And this may not be

11 focused on the furnace but they are looking at

12 a matched system and what they are going to

13 save in air conditioning.

14 And I think we talk about the

15 comfort being better with an ECM motor that

16 that is possible. And we try to talk about

17 the sound being reduced but the people that I

18 have talked about, that is really hard to

19 quantify. And any data that is available is

20 energy-efficiency related.

21 So, I know there are people. They

22 just want the best, no matter what it is.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: I think we

2 are due for a break right now.

3 DR. JAKOBS: Okay. It's getting

4 warm.

5 MR. VER SHAW: Can I ask one more

6 question before we break?

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes.

8 MR. VER SHAW: If you go to that

9 slide 59, can I look back at slide 33 and show

10 the 42 percent savings from constant-torque

11 motor and 50 percent -- should that line up

12 here?

13 MR. FRANCO: No. So, that is a

14 very important point. So, again, one is the

15 metric. It is a single point metric with just

16 a single external static pressure.

17 Here, in this analysis, we are

18 taking into account the variability that is

19 accounted in the field. So, there are some

20 households with these large external static

21 pressures.

22 MR. VER SHAW: Which one is this?
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1 MR. FRANCO: This is the energy

2 use results. This is the field -- the energy

3 use field.

4 MR. VER SHAW: So, is this what we

5 are using, what you are using to determine the

6 savings that this level will get you?

7 MR. FRANCO: Exactly. And this is

8 just average. If you go to the Chapter 7,

9 there is actually --

10 MR. VER SHAW: That's Chapter 7,

11 okay.

12 MR. FRANCO: -- a discussion of

13 actually the minimum, maximum, and

14 distribution of percentile. So, you can kind

15 of see the distribution of the results.

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Marshall.

17 MR. HUNT: So this is where you

18 are using the 11,000 Monte Carlo type runs to

19 get the probability for all these different

20 combinations.

21 MR. FRANCO: Exactly, 10,000, yes.

22 MR. HUNT: So, it is not a simple
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1 calculation.

2 MR. FRANCO: No. No, we tried to

3 model all the households.

4 MR. HUNT: Thank you.

5 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Let's take a

6 break. It is now 2:30 and let's just take a

7 ten-minute break so that we get back here

8 quickly. You know where the restrooms are. 

9 There is a Coke machine on the ground floor,

10 just about, pretty close to where we are. 

11 Just make a left-hand turn around the corner

12 and you can find the Coke machines. But go

13 quickly because we are going to resume at

14 2:40.

15 And I have the handouts here, the

16 Xeroxed copy of the business cards.

17 (Whereupon, the foregoing meeting

18 went off the record at 2:29 p.m. and went back

19 on the record at 2:41 p.m.)

20 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, we're

21 going to proceed with life-cycle cost and

22 payback period analysis. And back to Victor.
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1 MR. FRANCO: So, I will be talking

2 about the life-cycle cost and payback period

3 analysis. And some of these slides I will go

4 a little bit quickly. I might go back and

5 forth with some of the slides and I would

6 appreciate any questions.

7 So, the life-cycle cost analysis

8 and payback results are calculated using a

9 spreadsheet, using Excel and Crystal Ball. 

10 And as mentioned before, this requires doing

11 a Monte Carlo simulation analysis. We used

12 10,000 to generate our results.

13 The LCC equals the total installed

14 cost -- did everybody hear what I said before

15 or should I repeat it? Okay.

16 So, the LCC includes the total

17 installed costs plus the sum of operating

18 costs. Those include maintenance, repair, and

19 operating costs due to energy savings. And

20 they are all discounted to the base here,

21 2019, which is the compliance year.

22 Just a note that the economic
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1 evaluation was performed from the consumer

2 perspective.

3 So, this is just to illustrate the

4 different inputs in the LCC analysis. If you

5 start here at your right, the end results are

6 the life-cycle cost and life-cycle cost

7 savings. And the payback period. And we will

8 be discussing those results at the very end.

9 The inputs include, as I have

10 described, operating costs, including

11 maintenance, repair, and operating costs

12 related to energy use savings. And on the

13 top, we have total installed costs, which

14 include the consumer prices, which we

15 discussed in terms of markups and manufacturer

16 costs, as well as installation costs.

17 I have three slides that summarize

18 the methodology, the sources, and the changes,

19 that were applied for the NOPR. So, I won't

20 go through this just to briefly go to some of

21 the inputs. So, we have consumer prices that

22 also includes the learning curve; inflation
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1 costs, maintenance, repair, marginal energy

2 prices, energy price trends, discount rates,

3 lifetime, and base-case efficiencies. So,

4 this is pretty standard in DOE rulemaking. 

5 All these are available and it is very similar

6 methodology.

7 These are the sources that are

8 summarized for some of the primaries that I

9 described earlier. And I will go to the next

10 slide but I will probably jump back to this

11 slide.

12 Yes?

13 MR. BRUNDAGE: I have got a lot of 

14 questions or issues with your repair cost. Is

15 this right place to get into that or the next

16 slide?

17 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: I think so,

18 Don. Yes.

19 MR. FRANCO: The next slide, once

20 we get through repair costs, I will explain

21 and then I will go back to this slide,

22 actually.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Oh.

2 MR. FRANCO: So there is actually

3 two places I will go back to this slide, the

4 repair and the base-case efficiencies.

5 So, if you can hold your question.

6 MR. BRUNDAGE: Okay.

7 MR. FRANCO: So, just to briefly

8 go to the changes between the NOPR and

9 preliminary analysis, DOE changed from the

10 preliminary analysis from 2018 to 2019 the

11 compliance year. Dollar values are in 2012

12 dollars. The building sample that is being

13 used is from RECS 2009. And the labor costs

14 were updated to using 2012 RS Means.

15 Installation costs included

16 updated methodology. The full methodology is

17 explained in Appendix 8-D and includes an

18 additional two hours of additional labor for

19 more efficient blower motors.

20 Now, I will go back to the

21 previous slide in terms of maintenance and

22 repair. And that is where your question is
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1 probably the best.

2 So, for the previous analysis, the

3 costs for repair and maintenance were

4 annualized. And we only considered the

5 replacement costs of the replacement of the

6 motor only.

7 For this analysis, the cost is

8 actually added to the year, when the

9 maintenance and repair occurs, as well as we

10 add the repair costs for the controls, and the

11 capacitor in terms of PSC designs.

12 I'll go back to the previous

13 slide. For the repair primarily, here are the

14 assumptions are made. In terms of the

15 lifetime of the motor, we use small motors

16 final rule distribution. On average, 30,000

17 operating hours is the average lifetime that

18 is assumed for PSC motors.

19 Controls are assumed to fail on

20 average the 12th year. And overall, the

21 failure rate of the motor for the controls is

22 7.5 percent for simple controls, 15 percent
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1 for moderate complex controls, and 30 percent

2 for complex controls.

3 And this is a good time to ask

4 your questions.

5 DR. JAKOBS: Okay. This is Diane

6 Jakobs from Rheem.

7 So, you have a 12-year average

8 failure on the control.

9 MR. FRANCO: Yes.

10 DR. JAKOBS: Are you talking about

11 the control on a BPM motor?

12 MR. FRANCO: That is correct, yes.

13 DR. JAKOBS: That's good.

14 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: You think

15 that is on target?

16 DR. JAKOBS: Yes, from what I was

17 looking at. I hope that someday we can fix

18 that.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Do you

20 want to ask your question here?

21 MR. BRUNDAGE: Yes, and it has got

22 several parts. One is that you are assuming
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1 the same length of life for the motor -- for

2 the fan as for the furnace. But it looked

3 bouncing between the furnace TSD and the

4 furnace fan TSD. There is about at least 50

5 percent more shipments of furnace fans than

6 there are furnaces, which implies a shorter

7 lifespan.

8 The other thing that doesn't

9 appear to be happening here is any

10 consideration of chained failures. If a

11 capacitor goes out, unless it is caught before

12 it actually happens, it is liable to result in

13 the burnout of a motor, which I can tell you

14 from personal experience on an indoor furnace

15 fan. And the other thing is I am not -- so,

16 the capacitors last 60,000 hours. I would

17 love to get some help from ACCA or somebody

18 else on this. But when I had my capacitor

19 replaced, they said you really need to replace

20 them about every eight years because they burn

21 out, which doesn't sound like 60,000 hours,

22 unless you are doing a continuous operation.
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1 Do you have any information on

2 this sort of thing?

3 MR. MC CRUDDEN: For you

4 personally?

5 (Laughter.)

6 MR. BRUNDAGE: For me. 

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Well, you

8 might want to send a certified technician.

9 MR. MC CRUDDEN: I can send one of

10 our members.

11 No, I don't have anything to add

12 right here. But this is something that I am

13 going to have to go back and see if there is

14 better information that I can provide to

15 better inform this process.

16 MR. BRUNDAGE: I think the big

17 thing I would see is not just the particular

18 lifetime hours, but there doesn't appear to be

19 any consideration of chain failures.

20 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Please

21 say your name.

22 MR. SELKING: Paul Selking with
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1 Regal.

2 Relative to the capacitor

3 question, we do manufacturer those also. And

4 it does vary by manufacturer. I can tell you,

5 for our products they do comply to the EIA-456

6 standard, which is a 60,000 hour standard but

7 there is no requirement. ARI or no one

8 mandates that you have to buy that capacitor

9 that meets that standard. So, it does vary,

10 based on the capacitor no different than

11 buying anything. There is not a mandate to

12 meet that standard. It is one that some

13 manufacturers do meet. Some don't. So that

14 would be the variance that you may be seeing

15 on the eight years, in your particular case.

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Can you

17 comment on why fan shipments are more than

18 motor shipments?

19 MR. SELKING: I don't -- I'm not

20 familiar --

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Furnace

22 shipments. Charlie?
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1 MR. STEPHENS: Yes, I would like

2 to ask a question as to how the analysts

3 separated out the shipments of the fans that

4 are for the covered classes and the ones that

5 are for the exempt or not covered classes.

6 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Do we have

7 information about that?

8 MR. FRANCO: Well, maybe I am a

9 little confused. So, we are assuming that the

10 furnaces are the same in terms of shipments. 

11 We don't account for how many motors, for

12 example, are shipped. It is just furnace

13 shipments.

14 So the furnace shipments and the

15 furnace analysis are the same as previous

16 analysis in terms of furnace shipments. We

17 don't account for how many more motors, except

18 here in the repair, obviously, some of those

19 will be replaced during the lifetime of the

20 furnace.

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Jim.

22 MR. VER SHAW: Yes, Jim VerShaw.
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1 Looking under the repair thing, it

2 says the failure rate based on motor lifetime

3 operating hours of 30,000 average. So, if you

4 have got a multi-stage furnace that runs about

5 2900 or whatever I did the math, 11 years. 

6 So, are you assuming that a multi-stage

7 furnace will have a motor failure in 11 years

8 in your analysis?

9 MR. FRANCO: On average, it might

10 fail.

11 MR. VER SHAW: It might. What did 

12 you put in the analysis?

13 MR. FRANCO: It is a distribution. 

14 So, sometimes it actually fails earlier. 

15 Sometimes if fails later on.

16 MR. VER SHAW: So, the mean is --

17 MR. FRANCO: So, the mean -- so,

18 for example if we were talking about, let's

19 say 2000 hours, on average, then that is 15

20 years, on average, failure of the motor.

21 MR. VER SHAW: So in the

22 life-cycle cost analysis, you had a
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1 distribution of failures.

2 MR. FRANCO: Yes, and then

3 obviously sometimes the motor will not fail

4 before the furnace.

5 MR. VER SHAW: Well, yes. So, but

6 your mean failure time was 30,000 hours?

7 MR. FRANCO: That is correct, yes.

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane.

9 DR. JAKOBS: So, I didn't get to

10 see the spreadsheets that were uploaded

11 yesterday because I was on the plane. So, do

12 you have a different Weibull distribution than

13 you did for the one that is a year old from

14 the life-cycle cost analysis that is a year

15 old?

16 MR. FRANCO: I don't know. It is 

17 exactly the same. I don't believe it is

18 different. It is the same as before.

19 DR. JAKOBS: It is the same

20 Weibull so that the failure rate is the same

21 as what you had assumed before.

22 MR. FRANCO: Yes, exactly.
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1 DR. JAKOBS: So that said that

2 furnace fans had a 26.68-year life.

3 MR. FRANCO: Okay, yes. That is

4 the confusing part. So, there is two Weibull

5 functions that we have. One is related to the

6 lifetime of the furnace equipment, the total

7 furnace equipment and that relates to this

8 23-year average.

9 Then there is a different Weibull

10 that you can find in the appendix for repair

11 and maintenance, which is related to this

12 30,000 operating hours. And then there it

13 might be around 15 years for the furthest

14 band.

15 DR. JAKOBS: That is for the

16 capacitor. No?

17 MR. FRANCO: For the capacitor, we

18 assumed 60,000 hours for that.

19 DR. JAKOBS: Okay.

20 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Brian Rocky

21 writes a question. His question is: Control

22 lifetime from 1992 GTI study is greatly
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1 different than control lifetime for current

2 generation motors. How was that considered?

3 MR. FRANCO: DOE did not have any

4 more of data. That was the only data that DOE

5 had at the time. So, if there is any newer

6 data, please provide that.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Are

8 there other questions about repair? Did you

9 make it all the way through slide 66?

10 MR. FRANCO: No, not yet. We are

11 in the middle of that.

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Don.

13 MR. BRUNDAGE: Just a comment, the

14 fact that you are using a 1992, 20-year-old

15 study may be the difference. Because I

16 suspect that the fans had a lot less

17 complexity in 1992 than they have today and

18 may have more possible failure modes.

19 But it did seem pretty persuasive,

20 if you are talking about the same population,

21 and I am not sure they are between furnace fan

22 shipments and furnace shipments, with better
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1 than 50 percent more furnace fan shipments. 

2 That implies the life of a furnace fan is less

3 than a furnace.

4 I realize that even if they were

5 the same, a furnace fan will, obviously, not

6 outlast the furnace. You will replace them

7 both at the same time. So, you will have

8 somewhat higher just off the distributions but

9 it still doesn't seem like a reasonable

10 assumption of it lasts just as long.

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

12 you. Yes, Dave.

13 MR. WINNINGHAM: This is Dave with

14 Allied. In your analysis, did you assume the

15 same life of the motor for the various motor

16 technologies?

17 MR. FRANCO: Yes. Yes, we did,

18 based on this 30,000 operating hours.

19 MR. WINNINGHAM: So your

20 assumption is that a PSC motor and a

21 constant-torque motor and a full ECM motor all

22 have the same lifetime.
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1 MR. FRANCO: That is correct, --

2 MR. WINNINGHAM: Okay, I don't

3 know --

4 MR. FRANCO: -- in terms of the

5 repair costs.

6 MR. WINNINGHAM: I don't know that

7 we would agree with that.

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes, Terry.

9 MR. SMALL: I'm wondering why you

10 all didn't do a sensitivity analysis on that. 

11 You really don't have any hard data. So, it

12 would be wise, maybe, to throw out some

13 scenarios, rather than just assuming furnace

14 fans last as long as a furnace.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

16 you. Yes, Aniruddh.

17 MR. ROY: Aniruddh Roy, AHRI. So,

18 just to be clear Table 3.2.6 of Chapter 3 of

19 the TSD says assumes an average lifetime of

20 26.7 years for the furnace fans across all

21 product classes. 

22 And over here under the repair,
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1 you say that there is a 30 percent chance of

2 failure on complex controls with the 12-year

3 average failure rate from the 1992 DTI furnace

4 study.

5 So, that is a 30 percent of the

6 furnace fan completely failing. Right?

7 MR. FRANCO: No, these are three

8 different components here. The first one is 

9 the furnace fan failing, which is the 30,000

10 operating hours.

11 MR. ROY: Right.

12 MR. FRANCO: The one that you are

13 referring to is actually the controls. So,

14 the controls, assuming that they are

15 repairable, it would just be the controls that

16 are being repaired.

17 MR. ROY: But when you get to

18 complex controls, it could reach a stage where

19 you would have to replace the furnace fan

20 completely as well. Right?

21 MR. FRANCO: Yes, so they overlap

22 somehow. And if for example, we model that
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1 the fan actually needs to replaced, that takes

2 over. So, the whole fan is replaced, versus

3 just the controls.

4 MR. ROY: Okay, so how is the

5 assumption of 26.7 years valid, then?

6 MR. FRANCO: Yes, so just to make

7 very clear. So the furnace lifetime is 23.6

8 years. For a lot of these, say the lifetime

9 of the furnace fan is 15 years. So, if we

10 have a household where the furnace fan lasts

11 15 years, it will get repaired or replaced

12 actually at the 15th year. And then the

13 analysis period is up to the end of the

14 lifetime of the furnace.

15 MR. ROY: Okay.

16 MR. FRANCO: There are cases where

17 you might have two repairs or multiple

18 repairs. So you might have every ten years

19 you have a repair of the furnace fan. So say,

20 for example, you come up with ten years repair

21 and so you would be repairing at the 10th

22 year, the 20th year, and obviously the furnace
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1 is completely replaced at 23.6.

2 MR. ROY: Okay and so the LCC

3 accounts for that.

4 MR. FRANCO: Yes. And again,

5 emphasize that these are distributions. And

6 so it is different for each household.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Harvey.

8 MR. SACHS: Victor, I think we

9 have got some confusion in nomenclature. In

10 my many decades of consumer experience, I

11 actually would differentiate four classes of

12 failures. There is the furnace failure, with

13 the longest interval because it is terminal,

14 like life. At the other extreme, there is the

15 motor controller failure, which is quite

16 separate for ECMs from the motor failure. It

17 is quite common to replace the controller for

18 several hundred dollars -- got that Paul --

19 without having to replace its motor.

20 There is a motor failure and there

21 is a fan failure, which in my experience is

22 rather uncommon, since we do have rock
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1 diverters that we call air filters. So, it is

2 not always clear to me in this discussion

3 which level of failure is being referred to

4 and which level of repair is important.

5 Just as one final note, in the

6 furnaces I can remember and visualize, the

7 bearings have been part of the motor. The fan

8 bearings have been part of the motor. It is

9 not separately supported on a direct drive

10 unit.

11 So, in terms of understanding

12 repair costs and consumer impacts, that is

13 four different levels.

14 MR. FRANCO: Correct.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you. 

16 We are going to move on.

17 MR. FRANCO: Great. So, let me go

18 back to the NOPR changes and I am kind of

19 halfway there.

20 So, let's next talk about energy

21 prices. For this analysis, energy prices were

22 updated using 2011 EIA data. And energy price
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1 trends were updated from 2012 early release to

2 final version. 

3 The discount rates also included

4 updated data from the survey of consumer

5 finance, a survey that was conducted in 2010

6 and updated interest rate data.

7 For in terms of lifetime, we have

8 seen some input from manufacturers regarding

9 using the same lifetime distribution for all

10 furnace lifetime. And so we applied the same

11 furnace lifetime to all products.

12 Next, we have the base-case

13 efficiency distributions. And the previous

14 analysis we assumed that the PSC market share

15 was evenly split between the baseline and the

16 improved PSC, EL 1 50-50.

17 Now that we have some test data

18 and model data, we actually found out that the

19 split was about 40, 60 percent from our data

20 that we have.

21 In terms of base-case efficiency

22 distributions for BPM motor market share, we
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1 essentially did the same analysis from

2 previous using the models that are available

3 in the market and assumed that that was the

4 market share in 2018 in the preliminary

5 analysis.

6 We got manufacturer input, stating

7 that the market share at the start of the

8 compliance year should be closer to 35

9 percent. So, that is what we used for this

10 analysis.

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Don Brundage.

12 MR. BRUNDAGE: Don Brundage. 

13 Annual Energy Outlook 2013 has been out for

14 quite some time. I am wondering why it was

15 not used for the energy price trends.

16 MR. FRANCO: When the analysis was

17 conducted, it was not available for us to redo

18 the analysis at that time.

19 MR. BRUNDAGE: I will get into

20 this more when we get into the science

21 societal impacts but you really need to, when

22 talking about the benefits, to use the most
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1 recent possible information because things are

2 changing very dramatically in the electric

3 utility industry. Thank you.

4 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

5 you. 

6 MR. FRANCO: So, if there are any

7 other questions about lifetime or --

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Additional

9 comments? Because we are going to keep moving

10 right along because we are a little bit behind

11 schedule. I want to make sure we get all this

12 in today.

13 MR. FRANCO: Now here we have the

14 results. These are just for one product line. 

15 So we have non-weatherized, condensing gas

16 furnace fans. 

17 And just to show, we have the

18 installed cost. You can see how it varies

19 between the different efficiency levels. But

20 we have the discounted operating cost, which

21 again, includes the repair, maintenance and

22 energy use, energy savings, operating costs. 
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1 And the total represents the total of those

2 installed and the discounted operating cost.

3 The average savings are listed

4 here for the difference between the baseline

5 and the different efficiency levels.

6 The next thing to note is the

7 number of consumers that experience impact. 

8 We have net costs, no impact, and net benefit. 

9 So, no impact would represent people that are

10 already at efficiency level. They would not

11 be impacted by a standard joint efficiency

12 level. Net costs are people being impacted in

13 that benefit -- for having that benefit. 

14 Yes?

15 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

16 EEI. 

17 Please correct me. I thought no

18 impact was basically plus or minus two percent

19 basically of the -- where you said no impact,

20 you just kind of struck me there. When it

21 says like 41 or 34 percent, I thought no

22 impact meant that because you are doing a
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1 30-year analysis, it was plus or minus two

2 percent that it was DOE's thought was that it 

3 is really no economic impact because it is

4 within an error band.

5 MR. FRANCO: No, it actually

6 represents, for example, let's go to Level 4,

7 which is the proposed standard for this

8 equipment. Thirty-four percent we are

9 assuming are already at or above that

10 efficiency they will be purchasing that

11 equipment already. So, they are not being,

12 they wouldn't be impacted by the standard.

13 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock. 

14 Yes, okay, that is a little different. You

15 are saying a third of the consumers would buy

16 something even though it is a 50 percent price

17 increase?

18 MR. CLARK: No, he's saying 34

19 percent are already buying it.

20 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Yes, I am stunned

21 at that.

22 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: They are
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1 already at that efficiency level, Steve.

2 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay.

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane.

4 DR. JAKOBS: Okay, so this part

5 confuses me a little bit.

6 Between level 4 and level 5, we

7 have got level 4 is a 5.4 year payback, level

8 5 is a 11.7. And in the average savings,

9 there is big difference, like double.

10 But then on slide 59, that was

11 back where those two lines, the electricity

12 use savings were about the same.

13 MR. FRANCO: Yes, yes.

14 DR. JAKOBS: Okay.

15 MR. FRANCO: And this is a good

16 slide to clarify that whole point.

17 I would point out first is to look

18 at the net cost. And so if you compare the

19 net cost of level 4 to level 5, you will see

20 there is a big difference. Twenty-four

21 percent have a net cost at level 4. And at

22 level 5, there is a 45 percent net cost.
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1 So, there will be 45 percent of

2 the consumers that would be impacted by the

3 standards. So, they would actually have

4 negative LCC savings.

5 Now, the 27 percent, which are

6 obviously less than 45, have very large

7 savings, actually. And so the average LCC is

8 still positive. But in terms of the impact to

9 consumers of 45 percent consumers are impacted

10 in this case. 

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Gary.

12 MR. CLARK: Just a quick question. 

13 Where it says installed cost, what is the

14 definition of that?

15 MR. FRANCO: Yes, the installed

16 cost includes the -- so this should be labeled

17 total installed costs. The installed costs

18 include the installation cost for this

19 equipment, as well as the consumer.

20 MR. CLARK: So this is to the

21 consumer installed cost?

22 MR. FRANCO: Yes, exactly.
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1 MR. CLARK: It is ridiculously

2 low. To get a furnace installed in somebody's

3 house for $339 --

4 MR. FRANCO: Yes, this is just the

5 furnace fan component. Obviously, this is not

6 the furnace. The furnace may be maybe around

7 $2,000, based on the 2011.

8 MR. CLARK: I'm sorry, my mistake.

9 MR. FRANCO: This is just the cost

10 of the furnace fan. So in a sense, it is an

11 incremental.

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Aniruddh.

13 MR. ROY: Aniruddh Roy, AHRI.

14 It looks like these payback period

15 years correlate with Table 5.29 within the

16 NOPR on page 64128. And for some reason, the

17 numbers don't match up here for the payback

18 period years between the slide and what is in

19 the NOPR.

20 Which ones are more accurate or

21 which one is the accurate number?

22 MR. FRANCO: I don't have access
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1 to that right now but there might be an

2 average median payback.

3 MR. ROY: Yes, it says consumer

4 median payback period years. And it starts

5 with 1.4 on the slide, and goes to 1.35 within

6 the NOPR, and goes up to 11.03. So, it looks

7 like the first one and the last one match up

8 to a certain degree but then the ones in the

9 middle --

10 MR. FRANCO: Yes, sorry about the

11 confusion. I would like to clarify it.

12 This is in terms of efficiency

13 level. So, this includes all the efficiency

14 levels. What is reported in the NOPR is

15 actually by TSLs. And so those are going to

16 be different.

17 Alex, the next presenter, will

18 actually go over the TSLs in the next --

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, final

20 comment. Then, we are moving on. Steve.

21 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock. 

22 Yes, I just find it really interesting. It
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1 just seems like a new interpretation that

2 someone would go up to efficiency level 5,

3 even though the installed cost is nearly

4 doubled and it is an 11.7 year payback. I

5 just find that just fascinating. I am sure a

6 lot of people would love to meet those 30

7 percent of the consumers but I just find that

8 really just -- under that interpretation that

9 they do it.

10 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: But the

11 recommended level is 4, Steve.

12 MR. ROSENSTOCK: What?

13 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: The

14 recommended level is 4.

15 MR. ROSENSTOCK: I know but they

16 are saying under level 5, though, the analysis

17 says that 29 percent of the consumers are

18 going to buy that fan anyway, --

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes.

20 MR. ROSENSTOCK: -- at double the

21 cost almost and a 12-year payback.

22 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Now,
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1 we are moving on.

2 MR. FRANCO: Next, we conducted a

3 consumer subgroup analysis for this product. 

4 We looked at both low-income households and

5 senior citizen households. The results here

6 are presented for condensing gas furnace and

7 you can see the comparison between the average

8 LCC savings and the median payback period.

9 MR. BRUNDAGE: What discount rate

10 did you use for low income and senior average

11 LCC savings?

12 MR. FRANCO: The discount rates is

13 the distribution and it is assumed to be the

14 same as in the general population. So, it

15 depends on when you are sampling what that is.

16 MR. BRUNDAGE: I think that is a

17 laughable assumption that low-income people

18 have the same cost of capital as high-income

19 people. It is probably going to be more like

20 20 percent credit cards or payday lenders for

21 a significant portion of them, as opposed to

22 foregoing one percent interest on their bank
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1 accounts. You really need to have a higher

2 discount rate if you are talking about low

3 income, predictably low income consumers.

4 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

5 you.

6 MR. FRANCO: Now, just to clarify,

7 the discount rate is applied for to bring back

8 to the present value the operating cost

9 savings. So, it is not --

10 MR. BRUNDAGE: Well whatever

11 interest rate you are using as the fundamental

12 part of the life-cycle cost savings, whether

13 it is the interest rate costs or the discount

14 rate costs, those are going to be much higher

15 than that for low-income consumers.

16 MR. FRANCO: If there is any

17 additional comments?

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: There you see

19 the consumer subgroup analysis comments on

20 this.

21 Now we are going to hear about

22 shipments, NIA, RIA, and MIA analyses, plural.
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1 MR. SMALL: Doug?

2 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes, Terry?

3 MR. SMALL: I hate to go backwards

4 a little bit but could somebody, Victor, I

5 know the term rebuttable payback, the rule

6 that says that you need to recoup your

7 investment within three years of making it is

8 sort of the presumable rebuttable payback

9 period.

10 So, how does that work exactly

11 with the median payback period again? In

12 other words, if we picked a level 4, why is it

13 that that doesn't appear to meet that --

14 MR. FRANCO: The rebuttable

15 payback is actually a different part of the

16 analysis. It is not related to the LCC

17 assumptions.

18 MR. SMALL: Is there a correlation

19 between LCC payback and that rebuttable --

20 MR. FRANCO: No, not exactly. 

21 Actually, the rebuttable payback is based on

22 test procedures assumptions in terms of
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1 energies.

2 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: John

3 Cymbalsky is back there.

4 MR. CYMBALSKY: So the rebuttable

5 presumption is that if it pays back in less

6 than three years, we can just adopt it without

7 doing all this analysis.

8 MR. SMALL: Oh, I see. So really,

9 we are taking it to the next level to verify

10 that -- because it didn't immediately pass

11 that test.

12 MR. CYMBALSKY: Right. Exactly. 

13 That's right. So anything that we would

14 propose over a three-year payback must meet

15 the rigor of this analysis.

16 MR. SMALL: Okay, I understand.

17 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, now we

18 are moving on. Alex?

19 Alex Lekov, shipments analysis.

20 DR. LEKOV: Good afternoon. Alex

21 Lekov, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. 

22 And as Doug just said, I will be presenting
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1 the shipments analysis next part of this DOE

2 presentation.

3 So, shipments analysis are an

4 essential part of the national impact analysis

5 and the purpose is to forecast the furnace

6 fans that would be expected to be shipped

7 between 2019 and 2048.

8 In terms of methodology, the

9 shipment analysis, which I would also refer to

10 those as shipments model, look both at

11 shipment projections and shipment in terms of

12 efficiencies.

13 So, in terms of shipment

14 projections, the shipment model estimates the

15 number of furnace fans in each product class

16 shipped annually in the absence of new

17 standards, which we will call base case and as

18 well as for all of the standard cases for the

19 analysis period.

20 And it is done for three market

21 segments: replacement, new constructions, and

22 new owners. And I will talk more about those
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1 on one of the next slides.

2 In terms of efficiency, the

3 shipments model also projects the percent of

4 shipments in each product class and each

5 efficiency levels. Again, both in the base

6 case and for the standard case.

7 The shipment models also accounts

8 for impacts of standards on shipment by using

9 price elasticities.

10 So, as I said the purpose of the

11 shipment analysis is to arrive at total

12 shipments. And we are looking here at the sum

13 of three market segments, new installations,

14 new owners, and replacement shipments.

15 The input for all this, for the

16 derivation of the shipment at all these three

17 levels will be discussed in more details in

18 the next couple of slides. But as you see

19 here, for the new installations, we are

20 accounting for the projected new housing

21 starts as well as the historical market share

22 of new construction installations. For the
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1 new owners, we are looking at information

2 about a new owner shipment. And for the

3 replacement shipments, we are looking again at

4 the historical annual shipments and apply this

5 based on the lifetime of the equipment

6 expressed as the retirement function.

7 Also as you see here on this

8 slide, the replacement shipments will account

9 for some small fractions which relate to

10 demolished houses, early replacement and

11 equipment and switching non-furnace fan

12 products to furnace fan products as well as

13 switching between the furnace fan product

14 costs.

15 This slide illustrates or lists

16 the sources for the shipments model. And on

17 the left side, the inputs are listed related

18 as used in the shipments model and those

19 account for the historical annual shipments,

20 retirement function, the historical new

21 construction market saturation, projected new

22 construction start, as well as the relative
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1 price elasticities.

2 So in terms of sources, I will

3 kind of briefly mention here the annual

4 shipments, depending on the product cost, is

5 usually we are starting with AHRI historical

6 shipments. We have a full set for a period

7 1972 to 2012. And for weatherized gas

8 furnaces, it is a combination of from the AHRI

9 shipment as well as the packaged AC shipments. 

10 For the mobile home equipment, we are using

11 data from census, as well as another major

12 source is the American Housing Survey. There

13 is also source listed for electric furnaces,

14 which comes from -- is explained in more

15 detail in 2011 furnace standards final rule.

16 As said on the slide here, the

17 retirement function is based on the lifetime

18 distribution, which Victor explained in

19 details. The new construction market is

20 mostly based on government data from a census

21 bureau, as well as using RECS 2009 saturation

22 data.
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1 In terms of housing start, we

2 updated to 2012 projections. And for relative

3 price elasticities is the same that has been

4 used by DOE during the last ten years for

5 appliance standards rulemaking.

6 As was this format are showing the

7 differences between the preliminary analysis

8 and the NOPR changes is used throughout this

9 part of the presentation.

10 So again, the inputs are listed on

11 the left side and the preliminary analysis,

12 which most of you are familiar from the

13 previous round of the rulemaking are in the

14 middle and the NOPR changes are on the right

15 side.

16 So, mostly what is happening here

17 is we updated to a new data, more recent data. 

18 Well before usually the data was 2010,

19 approximately, we are updated when it was

20 available to 2011. This is the case of the

21 historical shipments from GAMA, for example.

22 Retirement function mentioned the
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1 lifetime was discussed in detail and also is

2 mentioned in the earlier presentation that for

3 this round, we are applying single

4 distributions for all product classes.

5 We did an enhancement to the

6 shipments model here in terms of early

7 replacement. We applied a fraction of

8 shipments during the period 1998 to 2010 to

9 account for early replacement.

10 Projected construction starts

11 again updated with newer data. Shipments to

12 new owner, it is essentially as a result of

13 overall changes to the shipments model, they

14 also appropriately changed.

15 Most important change that occurs

16 is probably the one under forecasting the

17 condensing market shares. Previous

18 preliminary analysis were done under the

19 presumption of the regional analysis for

20 furnaces.

21 So, this was mandatory this year. 

22 So the analysis change to essentially to
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1 assume in the north instead of 100 percent

2 converting to condensing standards basic is

3 essentially also heavily impacted on the type

4 of furnace fans. Now the fractions are 75

5 percent in the compliance year going up to 97 

6 percent 30 years during that years' period.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: We need to

8 keep moving rapidly. So, comments on these

9 two slides, the shipments analysis.

10 Yes, Greg?

11 MR. WAGNER: Going back a slide,

12 you have the income from 1980 to 2002. Go

13 back one slide. The bottom line the relative

14 price. It is the elasticity would be a little

15 different in this time period. In the last

16 decade there has been shrinking of real wages

17 versus that time period where there be

18 expansion wages. And why not use more recent

19 data?

20 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, so if

21 you could supply that in your written

22 comments, that would be helpful.
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1 MR. WAGNER: Well, why is not

2 being used, I guess, is the question.

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

4 DR. LEKOV: So my understanding is

5 that this period 1980 to 2002, the data was

6 available for the income of the households, in

7 addition to the shipments. So, that is the

8 information which is applied here. 

9 Also, it is consistent throughout

10 many other products that DOE regulates.

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane.

12 MR. WAGNER: But that is skewing

13 the data with the income levels.

14 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

15 DR. JAKOBS: Actually in the

16 technical support document, there are

17 references. And I think what Alex said is

18 this is what DOE has been using in the last

19 ten years. But if you look at the references,

20 one of them is from 1971 and then there is one

21 about appliances from the 1940s.

22 So, they are really old papers
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1 that are in the technical support document.

2 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

3 DR. JAKOBS: So, if you didn't

4 like the '90s, you are not going to like the

5 '40s.

6 (Laughter.)

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay,

8 additional comments on the shipments analysis

9 before we move on?

10 Okay, keep going, Alex.

11 DR. LEKOV: So, this is a request

12 welcomes comments on the shipments and demand

13 elasticities.

14 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: That's what

15 we just finished. So now we are moving on.

16 DR. LEKOV: So, here are the

17 results. The left bar are the historical

18 shipments. And here are DOE's projections for

19 the next period. All the product classes are

20 in different colors.

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Steve

22 Rosenstock?
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1 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

2 EEI. I am just kind of curious. 

3 You know basically, new homes

4 sales have basically flat-lined over the last

5 four years. And again, I am not sure about

6 repair versus replace but all of a sudden, it

7 looks like things are just going to surging

8 again starting this year or next year over the

9 next several years. And I am just kind of

10 curious in terms of what is the main driver

11 behind this, I will say significant jump up

12 over the next I will say eight years before

13 more, I will say a flatter kind of projection

14 onward.

15 DR. LEKOV: So, this is based on

16 new construction projections. Remember that

17 the market was down. Usually let's say one

18 and a half million units were going towards

19 new construction in terms of furnaces went

20 down to 300,000 at the bottom of the market. 

21 And now the EEA projects for the next period

22 growth.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Charlie?

2 MR. STEPHENS: I think you will

3 find that the lag in that jump up is about 23

4 years, about a furnace lifetime. It is an

5 echo of that other thing that is kind of

6 fogged over a little bit on the left. All

7 those furnaces that you see in that big peak

8 on the left are going to have to get replaced

9 by another one. So, you should see exactly

10 the same shape with a little bit of about a

11 23-year delay or one furnace lifetime delay.

12 DR. LEKOV: I would just add here

13 that Charlie is correct, in general. Maybe a

14 little bit there is a little bit not exact

15 match, due to impact of early replacement and

16 other factors.

17 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: So, let's

18 proceed to the next slide.

19 DR. LEKOV: So shipments model is

20 a very big part of the overall national impact

21 analysis, which the purpose is to estimate the

22 impact of the energy conservation standard for
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1 the period 2019 to 2048 expressed in terms of

2 national energy savings but reported as

3 primary energy savings and net present value.

4 In essence, to do this for each

5 product class in each standard case, we

6 calculate per unit cost increased and per unit

7 energy savings due to a standard, as well as

8 account for the number of units in stock and

9 energy savings each year from between 2019 and

10 2048.

11 So, this is here a list of the

12 inputs that go into national impact analysis

13 divided in two sections. The upper are the

14 inputs related to the national energy savings

15 and the bottom, the ones that relate to the

16 national present value. I will not read here

17 every single thing. Mostly, many of the

18 results are simply coming from LCC analysis. 

19 I will focus a little bit on base case

20 efficiencies distribution, which is a key

21 input. I will explain it on maybe one or two

22 slides later.
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1 And I would like to mention here

2 about the way DOE reports the energy, which is

3 essentially by converting the site energy into

4 primary energy consumption, which everybody is

5 familiar here, plus an additional component

6 which is applying the so-called

7 full-fuel-cycle factors into account for the

8 energy use for resource extraction and

9 distribution losses.

10 So, you will see the results

11 usually will mirror them. Two tables; one

12 simply the primary savings related to the

13 site-to-power plant, as well as the one

14 accounting for the full-fuel-cycle and just

15 kind of put this in front. The difference is

16 very, very small but it is accounted and

17 presented here.

18 Again, following the usual format

19 here, we are listing the changes between the

20 preliminary analysis and the NOPR changes. In

21 essence, primarily adjusting for the years,

22 for example the compliance years now in 2019. 
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1 The dollar year has changed to 2012.

2 The LCC output results to NIA are

3 essentially updated based on the new LCC

4 analysis. We also the rebound effect, which

5 was applied in the preliminary analysis is

6 applied also in the NIA analysis, with the

7 refinement of being calculated for each

8 household exactly to match for the actual

9 operations savings associated with it.

10 The primary most important change

11 here relates to the base-case efficiencies

12 distributions on which we got some

13 stakeholders' comments, which were applied

14 and, on the next slide, I will go in more

15 details about the details of how this was

16 done.

17 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Steve

18 Rosenstock.

19 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

20 Edison Electric Institute.

21 In terms of the rebound effect, it

22 looks like it was changed but I am just kind
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1 of curious. I didn't memorize Chapter 10,

2 please forgive me. What is the range of

3 rebound effect now under the revised analysis?

4 DR. LEKOV: It is about the same,

5 the 20 percent.

6 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Still in terms of

7 20 percent?

8 DR. LEKOV: Yes.

9 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay, thank you.

10 DR. LEKOV: So, here a little bit

11 more details related to the development of the

12 base case efficiencies. So, two parts of it. 

13 The bottom part actually is to illustrate the

14 so-called rollup scenario used when we are

15 going from one to another standard cases. And

16 the chart on the left part is to illustrate

17 DOE's projections of the trend for BPM market

18 shares and, again, are based on stakeholders'

19 input. The red part at the historical

20 information data and the blue part shows the

21 actually the trends for this efficiency

22 distributions, which increased from about 35
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1 percent in 2019 to 45 percent at the end of

2 the analysis period 2048.

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Harvey Sachs.

4 MR. SACHS: Harvey Sachs, ACEEE. 

5 In the blue portion of the curve on slide 81,

6 did the Department actually look at, for

7 example, material costs in comparison to BPM

8 to a PSC, since we will be producing, under

9 your scenario, very large volumes of both, the

10 material costs is probably going to dominate

11 the product costs.

12 DR. LEKOV: So, I am trying to

13 relate your question to the trends. In fact,

14 these trends here don't have much assumptions.

15 They were plain response to earlier DOE

16 assumption in the preliminary analysis. The

17 stakeholders said this is too high. Here are

18 the values that the manufacturer project. So,

19 DOE directly applied those values.

20 MR. SACHS: We will address this in

21 comments but if the -- at comparable

22 production volumes, if there isn't a large
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1 difference, a significance difference in

2 manufacturing costs, which is dominated by the

3 materials, and we are not talking rare earth

4 magnets here, then that shift could be greatly

5 underestimated in terms of market share.

6 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Yes,

7 Diane?

8 DR. JAKOBS: If we look at this

9 chart on standard level 4, it is saying that

10 28 percent would be baseline 5 and 72 percent

11 at baseline 4.

12 So, we already established that

13 baseline you wouldn't be saving any more

14 money, you would just be paying a larger first

15 cost. And I think that the benefits will be

16 harder, that there will be a shift down from

17 baseline 5.

18 So ECM motors people will be more

19 likely to buy the less expensive X or

20 constant-torque motor, instead of a

21 constant-CFM motor because they will be able

22 to have the benefit, they will get a better
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1 SEER level. But some of the benefits are more

2 esoteric about comfort and sound levels. So,

3 there will be people who buy them but I don't

4 think that this proportion is correct.

5 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, Andrew.

6 MR. DE LASKI: How can I comment

7 in the opposite direction? Which it seems to

8 me that if there a third of customers today

9 who are buying ECMs because they like them, as

10 Steve pointed out, they are paying -- it is

11 not a great payback, yet they are buying them,

12 why does that go away? In fact, in would

13 expect that manufacturers will seek to

14 differentiate products to be able to offer

15 premium products that they can, that Charlie's

16 contractors can sell at a markup.

17 So, there would be a lot of -- I

18 would think the engineering departments will

19 go to work to figure out how am I going to

20 come up with next thing that I can sell at a

21 premium. And I know you don't know what that

22 is today but there are some ideas because
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1 there are some ideas right here in the

2 documents here.

3 So, I think this is a very

4 conservative estimate of energy savings

5 because I think DOE, in most dockets that I

6 have seen, does both a roll-up scenario and a

7 shift scenario of some sort. So, I am a

8 little surprised that there is no shift

9 scenario here.

10 So, Alex, I guess that would be my

11 recommendation to you that you should also, as

12 is practiced in other dockets, is to do some

13 sort of shift modeling that would reflect that

14 there are drivers out there to find ways to

15 differentiate products above whatever the new

16 baseline is going to be.

17 DR. LEKOV: Yes, this is correct. 

18 This is roll-ups scenario. And thank you for

19 your input on the shift.

20 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, keep it

21 moving.

22 DR. LEKOV: So, the next part of
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1 the presentation I will present DOE's process

2 of developing the so-called trial standard

3 levels and the reasoning behind it to come at

4 the proposed TSL.

5 Probably it is worth it to explain

6 the structure of this table. So, we have a

7 list of the product classes that are under

8 consideration in this rulemaking and the

9 numbers that you see on the right side are

10 essentially the efficiency level number as

11 listed in the engineering analysis.

12 So, at the bottom of the table,

13 clearly lists the criteria that allowed DOE to

14 generate those six TSLs. The TSL 4, which

15 ultimately was proposed, is the one that

16 yields maximum national present value at 7

17 percent discount rate and for which the

18 percentage of LCC winners is higher than the

19 percentage of LCC losers. So, that is the

20 outcome in terms of how the scheme, the TSL

21 scheme was generated. And it will be better

22 illustrated as we proceed on the next slide.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Are you on

2 the first slide, Don?

3 MR. BRUNDAGE: Yes, this is

4 probably going to be a question more for DOE

5 staff than for Alex. But I would like to

6 understand how you are handling and

7 calculating the quads of national energy

8 savings, the overlap between the energy

9 savings here and over on the air conditioner

10 rulemaking. Because the energy use of an air

11 conditioner includes the indoor fan. And if

12 you specify a high efficiency indoor fan, that

13 means that for a given SEER value, the rest of

14 the system can be less efficient than it would

15 have been otherwise, unless you redo the test

16 procedure.

17 How are you avoiding double

18 counting the energy savings?

19 MR. MAJETTE: I can't answer that

20 question at the moment. I think it is

21 probably better to write that out. And that

22 is probably going to be a programmatic
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1 response that needs to go to that. I just

2 can't answer that right here.

3 MR. BRUNDAGE: Yes, I wasn't

4 necessarily expecting -- I just wanted to

5 bring it up that it is an issue. You are

6 claiming energy savings over on the air

7 conditioner side that includes some of the

8 same energy you have here. And it is fine for

9 you to claim it here and adjust it lower over

10 there. 

11 But it is probably going to be a

12 policy thing on which rulemaking you claim it

13 under. So, it is an issue.

14 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Alex.

15 DR. LEKOV: This question was

16 discussed in detail during the preliminary

17 analysis. In essence, DOE does not account

18 for the cooling savings at the base case.

19 In what is essentially account

20 here in terms of fan operation is for the

21 standard cases, where the SEER savings are

22 already calculated into whatever manufacturing
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1 exists. And when the new standard arrives,

2 you have a differential in the savings and

3 this is what actually DOE is accounting for.

4 MR. BRUNDAGE: So you are saying,

5 for example, the 1.86 quads on the top line

6 there already has the air conditioning cooling

7 mode energy savings taken out of it.

8 DR. LEKOV: It includes the three

9 modes of operation, including the fraction of

10 the cooling mode that is not related to

11 baseline operation. It may be --

12 MR. BRUNDAGE: That is a perfectly

13 valid way of doing it within the context of

14 this rulemaking but when you get around to

15 calculating the energy savings off of air

16 conditioning, you have got some of the same

17 energy using the test procedure is getting

18 counted again, because they are also going to

19 be counting cooling mode fan use as part of

20 their energy use.

21 I will include it in my comments

22 but I think it is a major issue, since almost
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1 everyone has air conditioning and furnace on

2 a national basis, that there is opportunity to

3 double count the savings.

4 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

5 you. Yes, Aniruddh.

6 MR. ROY: I would agree with what

7 Don says because the FER equation does have

8 the CH term, which is the annual furnace fan

9 cooling operating hours and there is potential

10 for overlap, based on that term being in the

11 equation.

12 Also, I have a question on the

13 energy savings, the national fuel cycle energy

14 savings and quads between TSL 3 and TSL 4. 

15 So, TSL 3 states cumulative savings of 2.332. 

16 TSL is saying 4.576. And the only difference

17 between the two design options being the fact

18 that TSL 4 has multi-staging, in addition to

19 the constant torque.

20 How is DOE able to get an energy

21 savings of almost double the quads with just

22 multi-staging being the difference between the
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1 two TSLs?

2 MR. VER SHAW: Alex, go back to

3 the previous slide.

4 DR. JAKOBS: We need a Rosetta

5 Stone.

6 MR. VER SHAW: Yes, where is

7 Rosetta Stone? The TSL and the energy levels

8 are different.

9 DR. LEKOV: So, if we return to

10 engineering analysis, most of this product

11 class is here under TSL 3, include single

12 stage equipment. And that is when you switch

13 to multi-stage equipment, you take advantage,

14 essentially those longer hours at much lower

15 input and much smaller energy use.

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Alex, why

17 don't you repeat that?

18 DR. LEKOV: TSL 3 is constructed

19 of efficiency level for each product class,

20 which is listed at efficiency level 3, which

21 is essentially represents an operation of a

22 single stage equipment.
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1 TSL 4 accounts for multi-stage

2 equipment.

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Steve

4 Rosenstock.

5 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

6 EEI.

7 Again, going back to side 33, the

8 delta, you know when you go percentage

9 reduction and FER for baseline, I know it is

10 not the energy savings analysis but you are

11 showing that efficiency level 3, going backing

12 to the Rosetta Stone, again, percentage

13 reduction FER baseline 42 percent. Then you

14 go to 4, efficiency level 4, again Rosetta

15 Stone, it is 50 percent. So, the incremental

16 savings are eight percent. 

17 So, I guess, again that is a fan

18 energy -- that is an FER rating. But again,

19 it is kind of surprising when you do that and

20 then you come over here to national impacts,

21 all of a sudden for a couple of those

22 categories, at least on the electric side, you
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1 are saving eight percent and you are seeing

2 this doubling of savings from TSL 3 to TSL 4.

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Aniruddh.

4 MR. ROSENSTOCK: I think that

5 might be part of the confusion there, at least

6 for those products.

7 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

8 MR. ROY: Aniruddh Roy, AHRI.

9 So, given that multi-staging is

10 proving to save a lot of quads, as suggested

11 by the NOPR, did DOE ever consider the PSC and

12 multi-stage design option in its analysis? 

13 Because I don't see it over here in the table.

14 DR. LEKOV: Just to answer

15 Aniruddh's question first, as described the

16 design option is defined in the efficiency

17 level, I don't think so.

18 MR. JASINSKI: Yes, Sam Jasinski,

19 Navigant Consulting. So, typically when using

20 a design option approach like this, the

21 technology options are applied in order of

22 cost-effectiveness. In this particular case,
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1 DOE used somewhat of a hybrid approach of an

2 efficiency-level approach in a design-option

3 approach.

4 Multi-staging was applied at X13

5 because that is where it was cost-effective. 

6 But in addition to that, DOE found that there

7 weren't many multi-staging because of its

8 minimal or very small impact on AFUE is

9 typically a premium feature or luxury feature

10 that sold for comfort, not necessarily energy

11 savings in terms of AFUE.

12 So, it is typically found with ECM

13 motors or premium products that have ECM

14 motors or X13s. So, DOE had little data for

15 PSCs that have multi-staging.

16 Now, DOE understands that

17 multi-staging can be applied with PSC motors. 

18 However, this savings, and this goes back to

19 the cost-effectiveness, the savings would be

20 different with those motors because the

21 primary driver of energy savings for the

22 higher efficiency motors are the lower
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1 turn-down ratios, because of the cubic

2 relationship of power and speed.

3 So, multi-staging at PSC would

4 save a lot less energy. So, that plays into

5 the ordering of the technology options, as

6 they are applied.

7 But again, this is a performance

8 standard. So, certainly multi-staging could

9 be added to PSC motors if there is a benefit

10 and manufacturers choose to do so.

11 MR. SACHS: With all due respect,

12 I think there is a little bit of confusion

13 between AFUE as a measure of performance for

14 a rating measure for standards versus field

15 use, in which Scott Pigg certainly shows some

16 substantial differences in energy use, because

17 the multi-stage units, as installed with field

18 oversizing typically run 80 to 90 percent in

19 low stage with humongous oversizing of the

20 heat exchangers and the cubic claw.

21 The other point I think is worth

22 making but I haven't done the analysis
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1 recently is that PCS motors not only have less

2 turndown potential but at part load, their

3 efficiencies are much lower than ECMs. And I

4 assume the base BPM maintains that part load

5 efficiency. So that would be the other reason

6 that I would be very surprised that the PSC

7 showed up to make sense with multi-staging.

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you,

9 Harvey.

10 Yes, Aniruddh.

11 MR. ROY: The reason I asked the

12 question is because DOE has evaluated

13 prototype levels and this could have been

14 another prototype for consideration.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, great. 

16 We are going to keep moving on here, folks.

17 DR. LEKOV: So, I think there is

18 an understanding here. This is the

19 essentially presentation of the primary

20 national energy savings at the power plant

21 level. 

22 The next slide shows the
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1 full-fuel-cycle. As mentioned, the difference

2 is really small. For example, the proposed

3 TSL 4 here, we have 4.58 quads compared to

4 4.56. So that is the magnitude of the impact.

5 The next slide shows the net

6 present value. Here it is again, TSL 4 at 3

7 percent discount rate. The value is shown,

8 the total value, as well as the same

9 information at 7 percent discount rate.

10 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Comments on

11 these slides, these last three? Okay.

12 DR. LEKOV: So, next to the

13 regulatory impact analysis. DOE was mandated

14 to perform analysis of policy alternatives

15 under Executive Order 12866.

16 To do this, DOE applied a modified

17 NIA spreadsheet and here is the type of

18 non-regulatory policy alternatives that are

19 rated and described in detail in the

20 assumptions in the DSD are traditionally done

21 by DOE with the specific assumptions. There

22 is data or set of data for each of these
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1 policies.

2 The result is that no alternative

3 was found to be as beneficial as the proposed

4 energy conservation standards.

5 So, manufacturer impact analysis.

6 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes, Chris

7 Lau.

8 MR. LAU: Hi, folks. My name is

9 Chris Lau. I am with Navigant. I will be

10 discussing the manufacturer impact analysis.

11 The main purpose of this analysis

12 is to assess the impacts of standards on

13 manufacturers who assemble furnace fans as

14 part of HVAC products addressed in this

15 rulemaking.

16 The second purpose is to identify

17 and qualify the impacts on manufacturer

18 subgroups, such as the impacts on small

19 manufacturers.

20 The final portion of the MIA

21 involves discussion of direct employment,

22 competitive considerations, potential capacity
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1 constraints, and other federal regulations

2 that go into effect around the compliance date

3 of this proposed standard.

4 The primary tool used is the

5 government regulatory impact model. It is a

6 cash flow model used to represent the industry

7 as a whole. The major output from the cash

8 flow model is an industry net present value,

9 a metric used to succinctly quantify the

10 impacts of standards on covered manufacturers.

11 The analysis is roughly broken

12 into three phases. Phase 1 happens during the

13 preliminary analysis. We create an industry

14 profile based on public and readily obtainable

15 materials, such as SEC filings, U.S. Census

16 data, and research reports.

17 The bulk of Phases 2 and 3 occur

18 during the NOPR phase of the rulemaking, where

19 we are today, using public data, as well as

20 input from upstream analyses we outlined in

21 the Government Regulatory Impact Model.

22 Key inputs are validated
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1 manufacturers and qualitative issues are

2 discussed in interviews.

3 So, what do I mean by upstream

4 analyses? To model the industry we rely on

5 content for several of the analyses already

6 presented here today. We take financial and

7 product information from the MTA. We take

8 manufacturer production costs from the

9 engineering analysis. We take annual

10 shipments from the shipments analysis.

11 To complete our model, we

12 supplement two key pieces of content. We

13 develop a markup scenario, a high and low

14 scenario, and we use content from the

15 engineering analysis, factory tours, and

16 discussions with manufacturers to estimate

17 conversion costs.

18 With regard to the markup

19 scenarios, the upper bound is the preservation 

20 of gross margin percentage. In this scenario,

21 manufacturers are able to maintain the same

22 gross margins on a percentage basis, as the
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1 products get more efficient. This suggests

2 that manufacturers are able to pass on

3 increased production costs to their customers.

4 The lower bound is the

5 preservation of operation profit. DOE applies

6 a market of each TSL that results in the same

7 operating profit and dollar value before and

8 after the standard. What this means is as

9 manufacturers' capital base increase as a

10 result of the standard and investments

11 required to meet the standard, manufacturers

12 do not earn additional profit from those

13 investments. And so you can see some of those

14 values here.

15 If you think in terms of gross

16 margins as opposed to markup, 1.3 there is

17 roughly a 23 to 24 percent gross margin and

18 1.25 is roughly a 20 percent gross margin, if

19 that helps folks in the room.

20 The other piece we calculate are

21 conversion costs, capital conversion costs and

22 product conversion costs. Based on interviews
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1 and tear downs, DOE estimates capital

2 conversion costs. In this case, DOE expected

3 minimal and new plant property and equipment

4 would be required for the design options

5 considered in TSL 4. We do expect higher

6 product conversion costs, based on industry R

7 and D spending and feedback from

8 manufacturers. We estimate that total product

9 conversion cost industry come out to about 3.1

10 million.

11 Yes, Steve?

12 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Hi, Steve

13 Rosenstock, Edison Electric Institute.

14 Those values are different than

15 the handouts?

16 MR. LAU: It is. There is a final

17 correct ahead that was made this morning.

18 This what is on the screen will

19 reflect what is in the NOPR.

20 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Oh, okay. And

21 you are saying the total cost for all of

22 industry for this new standard is $3 million
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1 per year or just as a one-time investment?

2 MR. LAU: So the investment is for

3 the whole industry, it is made between the

4 announcement year and the standards years,

5 over a five-year period.

6 MR. ROSENSTOCK: So they can do

7 this for $600,000 a year, the whole entire

8 industry for all their factories?

9 MR. LAU: For all their product

10 lines, correct.

11 DR. JAKOBS: Are you including the

12 cost of testing?

13 MR. LAU: So this includes R and

14 D, product design, certification. It does not 

15 include compliance with certification testing.

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: The total is

17 $3.1 million?

18 MR. LAU: That is correct.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: So these

20 figures on the screen are significantly

21 different than the slide.

22 MR. LAU: That's right. The
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1 figures on the printed copies come out to $1.1

2 million. That is for TSL 1, rather than TSL

3 4.

4 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Oh, I see. 

5 Okay.

6 MR. LAU: That was just a copy and

7 paste issue.

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Diane,

9 did you get your question answered?

10 DR. JAKOBS: Yes.

11 MR. BRUNDAGE: Will a corrected

12 copy of the PowerPoint be posted on the

13 website shortly?

14 MR. LAU: Yes.

15 MR. BRUNDAGE: Thank you.

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes, Dave.

17 MR. WINNINGHAM: Just a quick

18 statement. Dave at Allied. 

19 I would just advocate that those

20 product conversion costs are grossly

21 understated from a product development

22 standpoint.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

2 MR. LAU: Yes, we certainly

3 welcome input. That is one of the reasons why 

4 we presented here today.

5 The information we had received,

6 we received a lot of qualitative input but no

7 hard numbers. So, we used the qualitative

8 input we received and the R and D spending

9 that we estimated for the industry as a whole

10 to come up with some of these values.

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: And you could

12 imagine even if they got a few companies, they

13 could extrapolate it really significantly

14 improve these numbers.

15 MR. LAU: That's right.

16 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: So your

17 written comments would make a big, big

18 difference here.

19 Okay.

20 MR. LAU: I'm going to move on.

21 So what do the industry-wide

22 results look like? These are the INPV results
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1 that DOE considers. There is a lot of numbers

2 here but I will look at two things in

3 particular. One is the base case valuation

4 industry at 252 million. And remember this

5 only takes into the furnace fans, not the

6 whole product.

7 And then I will look at what is

8 the fourth column, change in INPV on

9 percentage basis. So, how much value the

10 industry loses or gains as a result of the

11 standard.

12 There is a range because we model

13 a range of markup scenarios but in the worst

14 case, industry is expected to lose 21.6

15 percent of its value, as a result of the

16 decrease in profit margin and the conversion

17 costs required to meet the standard.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Diane.

19 DR. JAKOBS: Thank you. So you

20 get the range from you assume a distribution? 

21 I mean, that is like a 30 percent range like

22 between the winners and losers. Right?
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1 MR. LAU: So, I think the

2 optimistic scenario is quite optimistic, in

3 that it assumes you pass on the full

4 incremental production costs to your

5 consumers, which I think folks in the room

6 probably don't think is realistic. But that

7 is our upper end.

8 And the lower end assumes that

9 even though an ECM motor costs more, you are

10 certainly not going to make more money off of

11 that, even though you are charging more, if

12 that makes sense.

13 MR. SACHS: This is aggregate to

14 the industry. It is not range from

15 manufacturer to manufacturer.

16 MR. LAU: That is correct. This

17 is representative of the industry as a whole.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Why don't you

19 repeat it, Harvey? Sorry.

20 MR. SACHS: Harvey Sachs. The

21 data on the INPV results slide reflect

22 industry aggregate figures, rather than range
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1 among manufacturers.

2 MR. LAU: That is correct.

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you,

4 Harvey.

5 MR. LAU: So, DOE is also required

6 to look at the impact of proposed standards on

7 small businesses. In this case, the Small

8 Business Administration defines a small

9 manufacturer as one of with 750 employees or

10 less. Fourteen small manufacturers were

11 identified.

12 DOE did identify potentially

13 differential impacts on those small

14 businesses, redesigned investments industry

15 certification costs tend to be fixed and do

16 not scale the sales volume. As a result,

17 smaller manufacturers with lower sales volume

18 may find cost recovery more difficult.

19 Two, small manufacturers typically

20 face disadvantages relative to large

21 competitors in terms of technical resources. 

22 That would be engineers, technicians, lab
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1 space in the facilities.

2 And three, due to smaller

3 purchasing volumes, small manufacturers may

4 typically pay higher prices for components.

5 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Question.

6 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes.

7 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

8 Edison Electric Institute. And what were you

9 considering the profit margin for the small

10 manufacturers to be?

11 MR. LAU: We don't break out a

12 profit margin -- we don't look at profit

13 margins specifically for small manufacturers

14 relative to large manufacturers. We do look

15 at a couple of different metrics to sort of

16 get a sense of what it means for a small

17 manufacturer versus a large. And you can see

18 here that product conversion costs are often

19 a concern and those are un-proportionately

20 like five times more significant for small

21 manufacturers.

22 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Right. So what
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1 if a profit margin is less than five percent?

2 MR. LAU:á So this isn't

3 necessarily profit margin, per se.

4 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Oh, I know. 

5 MR. LAU: Okay.

6 MR. ROSENSTOCK: I am asking you. 

7 You are saying that the conversion cost would

8 be about five percent of their annual revenue. 

9 And I am asking you what if the profit margin

10 is under five percent.

11 MR. LAU: That would imply that

12 they are not making a profit.

13 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Thank you.

14 MR. LAU: Yes. However, that is

15 not necessarily what this analysis is

16 insinuating.

17 MR. ROSENSTOCK: I know.

18 MR. LAU: Okay.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Terry.

20 MR. SMALL: Well, that is really

21 distressing as a small manufacturer.

22 I am worried Dave feels like here
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1 that the one percent product conversion cost

2 for large manufacturer is grossly understated. 

3 And then you just take whatever that is times

4 five. It would be disastrous for the small

5 manufacturer.

6 As Steve said, I mean remember

7 that five percent on revenues, I mean most

8 small manufacturers don't make five percent

9 net income. So, that would basically wipe out

10 any profitability.

11 MR. LAU: For the given year, yes.

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Additional

13 comments here? Okay. Environmental impacts.

14 I wanted to make sure we preserve

15 time for our presentation and discussion

16 surrounding the results and proposed

17 standards. That seemed to me the meat of the

18 matter and the reason we have been here all

19 day. So, that is why I am moving us rapidly.

20 Harvey.

21 MR. SACHS: Harvey Sachs, ACEEE.

22 And with great respect for the
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1 work these teams have done, most of what we

2 have heard in the last hour has been reading

3 from the printouts. I wonder if we couldn't

4 bypass this and move directly to those final

5 comments in the interest of time.

6 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes, I think

7 that what we have ahead of us is not very

8 lengthy, unless a lot of people are going to

9 bolt for the door, seeing as how it is 4:05. 

10 But I think I would like -- I have 

11 been accelerating us so that we can get to

12 this point rapidly so we would preserve time. 

13 I think we are in good shape now. I do. 

14 Because Alex is going to move us rapidly,

15 aren't you, Alex?

16 DR. LEKOV: So, in the spirit of

17 this statement, first emissions analysis. DOE

18 reports the environment impacts resulting from 

19 potential energy standards due to the change,

20 particularly in the power plant emissions, but

21 as well as the site-based emissions, the tool

22 for this is a NEMS, a national energy modeling
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1 system.

2 And the result for the CO2, NOx,

3 SO2 and mercury are shown on this slide.

4 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, let's

5 hear from Don first and then Steve.

6 MR. BRUNDAGE: Okay. I'm just

7 going to do a little one-minute spiel on this

8 and then we can move on.

9 I assume this was running NEMS-BT

10 off of 2012 annual energy outlook. Is that

11 correct?

12 DR. LEKOV: In essence, the

13 emissions factors are derived from the most

14 current version of NEMS.

15 MR. BRUNDAGE: The most current

16 version is '13. Everything that was talked

17 about so far that you have used has talked

18 about AEO '12.

19 DR. LEKOV: Yes, so you mentioned

20 also about using the most current sources. 

21 And DOE will do this for the final rule. In

22 fact, there is always this time delay in the
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1 process between the completion of the

2 analysis.

3 MR. BRUNDAGE: Okay. Just to go

4 over some major points on that, there have

5 been a lot of coal plant retirements in the

6 last year or two which are not reflected in

7 AEO '12. Because of the air toxic rule, there

8 will be no unscrubbed coal after approximately

9 2015, which would cut the sulfur dioxide.

10 On NOx, there are many, if not

11 most plants have to have or will have to have

12 enhanced NOx reduction and many will also,

13 scrubbing will remove some mercury at many

14 plants also have to have additional mercury

15 reduction such as bag houses.

16 But just assuming no one scrubbed

17 coal after about 2015, you can look up in air

18 toxics rule when the deadline is. But I

19 suspect these numbers are higher than what

20 will be actually experienced.

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

22 you. Steve.
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1 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

2 Edison Electric Institute.

3 Also, I will note that it is says

4 you are looking upstream for power plant

5 emissions but it is only site emissions from

6 gas and oil furnaces, seeing that they are

7 ignoring any sort of upstream emissions

8 associated with gas or oil production. It

9 seems analytically inconsistent in that first

10 sentence.

11 Also, especially in terms of by

12 2019 the EPA, the big ones -- while EPA has

13 already set a proposed rule for emissions from

14 new power plants, they issued that rule in

15 September, by June of 2014, EPA is going to

16 submit rules for existing power plants. That

17 will have a gigantic impact on any CO2

18 numbers, especially by 2019.

19 Because if EPA finalizes that

20 existing power plant rule by 2015, the states

21 won't have to submit their state

22 implementation plans by 2016 or 2017. So by
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1 2019, all of these numbers are going to change 

2 and be quite dramatically lower, I would say.

3 Also, DOE has written about how

4 especially like with the ozone rule for 28

5 states that basically they say that any

6 efficiency standard does not have any impact,

7 does not create any sort of physical

8 reductions and emissions because of the cap

9 and trade type of scenarios for those

10 emissions.

11 So, again, to kind of follow on

12 with Don, I think, at least on the electric

13 side, that a lot of these numbers are

14 extremely overstated and especially when you

15 monetize them, they are going to show values

16 that are not going to be really realized in a

17 marketplace. Thank you.

18 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

19 you. Let's move to monetization.

20 DR. LEKOV: So, DOE also does the

21 monetization by using the most current social

22 cost of carbon values. Those are based on
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1 several models from interagency estimates. 

2 And the range of prices are listed on this

3 slide.

4 And the results are shown here. 

5 In essence, the results of these three or four

6 models is summarized in different discount

7 rate columns. And those are the results.

8 The first block shows for the

9 savings at the power plant level. The

10 so-called upstream emissions label represents

11 the upstream emissions essentially presented

12 by the full-fuel-cycle. And the total are at

13 the bottom.

14 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Don?

15 MR. BRUNDAGE: The social cost of

16 carbon analysis done for interagency review is

17 out for public comment by Office of Management

18 and Budget. Will the timing of this

19 rulemaking allow updated social costs of

20 carbon if the OMB effort results in revisions

21 to that study?

22 DR. LEKOV: If it is within the
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1 timeframe of the rulemaking, it will apply

2 updated values.

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Additional

4 comments on monitorization of emission

5 reductions?

6 Okay.

7 DR. LEKOV: This is just to

8 indicate that DOE also do utility impact

9 analysis with where the primary outcome is to

10 forecast the change in the electricity

11 generation and avoided capacity increase.

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Steve.

13 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

14 Edison Electric Institute.

15 In your summary results, you show

16 that for all of the technical options on the

17 trial standard levels that there will be

18 additional fossil fuel usage under all of the

19 trial standard levels.

20 So, is there an analysis of the

21 impact on fossil fuel supplied since the

22 amount of fossil fuels will have to be
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1 increased as a result of this standard?

2 DR. LEKOV: Not in this analysis. 

3 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Move on.

4 DR. LEKOV: The DOE had the

5 methodology that is used throughout the

6 rulemakings and your input is important.

7 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay. Again,

8 there is a little inconsistency there. Thank

9 you.

10 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

11 you. Additional comments on utility impacts?

12 Employment impact analysis.

13 DR. LEKOV: So, DOE also does an

14 employment impact analysis in two parts,

15 direct and indirect employment. Direct

16 relates to the jobs directly in the industry,

17 which was presented in the manufacturer impact

18 analysis. This one here refers to the

19 so-called indirect employment impact, which is

20 essentially the impact of standards from

21 shifting consumer expenditures among goods and

22 services due to changing equipment and energy
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1 costs. And those are derived using a standard

2 tool, Impact of Sector Energy Technologies,

3 ImSET. And the results which are small are

4 well-explained in Chapter 16 of the TSD.

5 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Comments on

6 the employment impact analysis?

7 Okay, then to the results.

8 DR. LEKOV: So, this part is

9 essentially is not presenting anything new. 

10 This is a summary of the results as outlined

11 during the entire day.

12 Starting with the consumer average

13 LCC savings and median payback for the

14 considered TSL, including in the TSL 4 is

15 highlighted.

16 Now, the next slide is also part

17 of the life-cycle costs analysis impacts and

18 presents for this three product classes the

19 fractions of consumers that encounter costs

20 benefitting or encounter no impact.

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Steve.

22 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,
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1 EEI. 

2 I always appreciate these charts. 

3 They are extremely helpful in terms of the key

4 categories.

5 There have been other rulemakings

6 where the percentage of consumers having net

7 cost is significantly lower. And looking at

8 these numbers and I know it is based on the

9 DOE analysis, for these key categories that at

10 least 24 percent of consumers, 24 to 33

11 percent of consumers will have higher

12 life-cycle costs. I am extremely concerned

13 about that because again, other rulemakings

14 and other trial standard levels have members

15 that are significantly better for the

16 consumers. I know DOE has to consider all

17 factors but 24 to 33 percent of consumers

18 having higher life cycle costs because of this

19 standard seems to be a little on the high

20 side, especially compared to other DOE

21 rulemakings.

22 Thank you.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

2 you. 

3 MR. SACHS: Steve, this is Harvey

4 Sachs, ACEEE. With terminally modeling in

5 cheek, we are still arguing for the no losers

6 test for utility and efficiency investments,

7 too?

8 MR. ROSENSTOCK: This has nothing

9 to do with utilities. This is about the

10 consumers, Harvey. All about the consumers,

11 which everybody around the table is. So,

12 one-third of us who are going to buy these

13 products are doing to have higher life cycle

14 costs. That is what it is about, not about

15 utilities.

16 MR. SACHS: I appreciate the

17 response. I was trying to do a metaphor but

18 I think the important point is that I don't

19 know the magnitudes. It might be 33 percent

20 with a net incremental cost of $1 and 53

21 percent with a net saving of $5 each.

22 So, it is not a figure this merit 
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1 that I find particularly useful, although it

2 is illustrative.

3 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock. 

4 Yes, again, this is the result as published by

5 DOE. I know that with their Monte Carlo

6 analysis there they show a range of life cycle

7 cost savings and yet, these beautiful curves

8 that are shown in the technical support

9 document, yes, many people are, I will say, in

10 the zero to $50 range in terms of net costs or

11 net benefits. But there are significant

12 numbers that are well outside that range in

13 terms of $100, $200, et cetera.

14 Thank you.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Don Brundage.

16 MR. BRUNDAGE: I wonder if there

17 is any information or insights you could give

18 on who these people are or more particularly

19 where they are. Are there particular regions

20 or climatic regions that perhaps have lower

21 operating hours of fans and would potentially

22 have poorer economics? Do you have any
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1 information on that?

2 DR. LEKOV: So, I would point on

3 to the LCC analysis spreadsheet, which

4 includes the so-called statistics page. I

5 think, in the pretty clear format, it has

6 extraction tables from the forecast itself for

7 each 10,000 runs. We did hundreds of

8 parameters in order to derive this. And the

9 most important information, including almost

10 everything which you just requested is in this

11 statistics.

12 Probably the correlations are not

13 there but the correlations between the

14 parameters. However, you could see clear by 

15 base average values, as well as I think ten

16 percent base on both sides of the average,

17 there are maximum, minimum values. So, there

18 is a pretty extensive information DOE provides

19 if somebody wants to go into the detail to see

20 what actually are the details behind some of

21 these parameters.

22 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Steve
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1 Rosenstock.

2 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

3 EEI. 

4 As I recall on an earlier slide,

5 when you broke out the all consumers versus

6 low-income consumers and seniors, I think it

7 was 5.4 -- again, for one of the product

8 classes here, was 5.4 years for all consumers

9 but low-income was 8.5 years. 

10 So wouldn't that tend to imply

11 that they are going to have a higher

12 percentage net cost because their paybacks are

13 higher to begin with?

14 DR. LEKOV: It's a distribution of

15 results but, essentially, yes.

16 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Okay, thank you.

17 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Greg.

18 MR. WAGNER: Moving on to the next

19 slide, but you know, this slide is interesting

20 when you think about that anywhere from a

21 quarter to a third of consumers are going to

22 have more costs; you move to the next slide
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1 and you look at 150,000 on average are going

2 to lose their job and, on average, the

3 industry is going to lose four percent.

4 Those are using all the rosy

5 scenarios that we have talked about today and

6 in previous discussions that the Department

7 has put together.

8 I really am at a loss how this

9 whole thing comes out a net winner for

10 consumers, for the industry, or for energy

11 advocates because this is not the best use of

12 our money.

13 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: You want to

14 present 106?

15 DR. LEKOV: So, this slide

16 summarizes the results of several analysis

17 types, including national energy savings, net

18 present value, manufacturing impact analysis

19 and employment impacts for the considered

20 TSLs. The proposed TSL is highlighted.

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Aniruddh.

22 MR. ROY: Aniruddh Roy, AHRI. On
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1 page 64130 of the NOPR, DOE states that there

2 is a substantial reduction in the INPV at TSL

3 5 for manufacturers. And the range is not too

4 different under TSL 4. But again, it

5 justifies TSL 4 as being reasonable, although

6 the reduction is not "substantial" in that

7 case.

8 We feel that the ranges are pretty

9 much the same between TSL 4 and TSL 5. So, I

10 guess what was DOE's reason or rationale for

11 counting the TSL 5 industry NPV as being

12 substantial versus TSL 4 not being substantial

13 enough to be rejected?

14 MR. LAU: This is Chris Lau with

15 Navigant. I think DOE simply chooses based on 

16 -- selects its proposed TSL based on the

17 cumulative benefits versus the cumulative

18 costs, as opposed to a specific indicator.

19 So, TSL 5 was not rejected solely

20 because of the manufacturer impacts and TSL 4

21 was not being proposed solely because the

22 manufacturer impacts are acceptable, if that
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1 makes sense.

2 MR. ROY: I understand that,

3 Chris, but the fact that it was a substantial,

4 like he used the word substantial to reject

5 TSL 5. I know you also considered NPV, and

6 the CO2 emissions reductions. You know DOE

7 should have recognized within the same NOPR

8 that because the range is the same, that it is

9 still a substantial impact to the industry and

10 they are picking the TSL 4 despite that

11 substantial impact being there. 

12 So I think the NOPR should have

13 recognized that.

14 MR. LAU: We'll take that under

15 advisement. I think if you look at the INPV

16 impacts across multiple recent rulemakings,

17 recent being the last several years, I don't

18 think that the impacts modeled here are

19 outside of the range of what has been seen in

20 the past.

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Harvey Sachs.

22 MR. SACHS: To me, one of the
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1 significant -- as an energy efficiency

2 advocate who believes that we need to allow

3 differentiation to get innovation, the

4 significant difference between 4 and 5 is that

5 5 includes mandatory -- not mandatory

6 modulation but performance equivalent to that,

7 while 4 does not. It will make it easier to

8 continue to offer differentiated products,

9 while getting effectively the same energy

10 savings. DOE has articulated earlier some

11 other benefits of 4 over 5.

12 And again, I hate to agree with

13 them but I think this is an important

14 distinction.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

16 you. Diane.

17 MR. WINNINGHAM: This is Dave with

18 Allied.

19 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes.

20 MR. WINNINGHAM: Level 4 has

21 modulating X13 or constant-torque.

22 MR. SACHS: I'm sorry. 
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1 Multi-stage I meant.

2 MR. WINNINGHAM: Yes, it is; 4 and

3 5 both are multi-staged. The only difference

4 is type of motor.

5 MR. SACHS: I'm sorry. You are

6 undoubtedly right. I confuse myself easily

7 nowadays. But even so, I think my basic point

8 of allowing more differentiation remains.

9 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thanks

10 for the clarification, Dave, and thank you,

11 Harvey. Now, Diane.

12 DR. JAKOBS: While I was still at

13 home and looking at all this, I was trying to

14 figure out a way to gracefully talk about lost

15 jobs. And I am shocked by this 300,000 but in

16 Fort Smith, Arkansas, our manufacturing is

17 down 20 percent since 2006. And if you Google

18 layoffs, it is Whirlpool, it is Trane, and it

19 is Rheem. 

20 I have a Ph.D. I had a choice. I

21 could make reports or I could build things. 

22 And in my career, I wanted to build things. 
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1 I don't know what else to say. Thank you.

2 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you. 

3 Additional thoughts, comments on this results

4 slide?

5 Don Brundage.

6 MR. BRUNDAGE: I don't think that

7 the NPVs are out of line with what you have

8 done in other rulemakings. The problem I have

9 is that your lack of data on some major

10 assumptions, I think these are very optimistic

11 savings. And with fundamental parts of the

12 underlying economics based on things like

13 20-year-old study of how long fans last, there

14 is more uncertainty in this one than there are

15 in a lot of rulemakings. And that would tend

16 to mean there is a need to err on the side of

17 caution and what standard levels you set.

18 Because as we all know, DOE can

19 raise efficiency levels but they can never

20 lower them. If you mess up, it is up to

21 Congress to fix it because DOE cannot.

22 Thank you.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Steve.

2 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

3 EEI. 

4 Again, just as I have been to so

5 many rulemakings, I am kind of surprised that

6 the employment impacts just is so solid across 

7 all TSLs. I have seen with other rulemakings

8 there does seem to be some variation based on

9 the difference in the NPV.

10 But given that, basically the

11 range is make it a loss of zero to 301,000

12 jobs, if I am reading this correctly, of

13 domestic production workers. So the mid-point

14 is 150,000 jobs, domestic jobs lost by 2019. 

15 Am I reading that correctly? Is that the DOE

16 projection?

17 MR. LAU: No, actually, this is a

18 mistake. Actually, before I say it, let me

19 double check them all but I think that those

20 numbers there are just supposed to be it is

21 just 301, not thousands. Because remember, we

22 are just talking about furnace fans here. 
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1 They are not 301,000 people that are on

2 production lines for furnace fans today.

3 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Oh, okay. Steve

4 Rosenstock. Yes, I thank you for that

5 clarification. But again --

6 MR. LAU: And I apologize.

7 MR. ROSENSTOCK: -- we are just

8 reading what you --

9 MR. LAU: Yes.

10 MR. ROSENSTOCK: But it still --

11 okay. Thank you for that clarification.

12 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, Harvey.

13 MR. SACHS: I would like to just

14 put a context on the jobs discussion, thanking

15 Navigant for that clarification.

16 There is today an element in or

17 lurking next door to us in this room and that

18 is the competition from offshore technologies

19 that threaten to displace our duct equipment

20 in general.

21 Charlie has left now but he says

22 they are starting to see substantial benefits
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1 to customers from replacing 5-ton RTUs with

2 2-ton mini splits. Energy? And that is where

3 the lost jobs threat is.

4 And from my perspective, and I

5 realize it is a hard one to share, this is

6 part of trying to help our manufacturing base

7 be competitive with this global alternative

8 that is penetrating both in the commercial

9 more quickly and in the residential sectors

10 more slowly.

11 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Dave.

12 MR. WINNINGHAM: Harvey, I

13 appreciate those comments and we all recognize

14 we have to compete on a global basis.

15 But I think if you look at the

16 outcome of our products today, we have

17 products that have unheard of efficiency

18 levels. We have products that are 25 SEER and

19 above. We have products that are above 98

20 percent AFUE. Motor efficiency is a key

21 issue. I don't dispute that. But there are

22 some fundamental things here associated with
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1 this NOPR that I don't feel that we are

2 helping the industry here domestically compete

3 on a global basis.

4 You know in today's market, in the

5 U.S. it is primarily single stage PSC. And we

6 are making a major shift here toward

7 multi-staged constant-torque kind of as a line

8 in the sand. We are greatly increasing the

9 complexity of the product. We are going to

10 increase the consumer cost, as well as

11 maintenance cost.

12 The maintenance cost, alone, could 

13 be two to three times what is spent in

14 maintenance costs today. The energy savings

15 for weatherized products and for packaged

16 products is really not valid because any

17 savings associated with an FER will be

18 normalized into the design for SEER and HSPF.

19 You know DOE has done a tremendous

20 amount of work on this. And there is a lot of

21 people who have put hard work into this but it

22 is clear there are still many, many issues
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1 related to this NOPR from the lack of a test

2 procedure to basic FER data to support all of

3 the assumptions going in here. The

4 development costs, the capital impacts, as

5 well as the emissions reductions.

6 So, I would earnestly ask the

7 Department to please consider these very

8 carefully before proceeding with a standard

9 that, as it was stated before, once it is out,

10 you can't undo it, and to consider all of the

11 impacts.

12 MR. SACHS: Thank you, Dave. And

13 one of the things that I have talked with a

14 couple of my peers on the advocacy side about

15 is that we strongly support the idea that we

16 should not finalize the performance rule

17 before we have the rating method. We are

18 strongly with it.

19 And I have heard a lot of detailed

20 comments about possible shortcomings in the

21 DOE's analysis. The thing that has really hit

22 me, and it may just be that you all are a
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1 polite group, is a sense that many of the

2 manufacturers here are okay with doing it if

3 we do it right. And we are strongly

4 supportive of that. We are strongly

5 supportive of fixing whatever errors there

6 are. I have a gut sense of where it ought to

7 come out but that is not in the analytical

8 sense.

9 We will work with you. And we may

10 yet ask for a pound of flesh in terms of

11 shortening the compliance interval but we do

12 want to get it right.

13 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: It seems like

14 we are moving towards our final comments. 

15 There are just a couple more brief slides we

16 could just take a peek at. They are the final

17 slides of this packet.

18 DR. LEKOV: So, somebody have the

19 emissions impacts?

20 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Yes, and then

21 we can conclude any other final remarks.

22 DR. LEKOV: And this is the
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1 standard.

2 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay. Okay,

3 it is just a summary.

4 So then, I think we are moving

5 toward any other comments, issues here as we

6 move towards closure in this meeting, things

7 that have been sufficiently, things that you

8 would like to bring to the floor here at the

9 end.

10 Marshall, are you?

11 MR. HUNT: California Utilities

12 look forward to making more comments. I

13 really appreciate. I was here to listen and

14 I have learned a lot.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

16 you.

17 Terry.

18 MR. SMALL: Well, first I would

19 like to thank the staff for a herculean effort

20 here. This is a very complex subject.

21 I think we are in a bit of

22 unchartered territory. To me, that tells me
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1 that we need to proceed with caution. I

2 really don't think -- I think for instance

3 that your shipment, the way the economy is

4 recovering or not recovering or whatever, we

5 are on a very slow boat. So, what is the

6 rush? I mean I don't see that we are all of

7 a sudden going to run out of energy. We seem

8 to be finding new sources.

9 And so I think that this all bodes

10 that we use caution in this rulemaking. I

11 don't see what the hurry is. Get the test

12 procedure. Let us go back through and apply

13 the final test procedure to our products, then

14 make comments. No hurry, in my mind.

15 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay.

16 MR. SMALL: And if you get it

17 wrong, there could be some severe

18 consequences. As a small manufacturer, I

19 think this could devastate some of our small

20 manufacturers that don't have the resources to

21 meet some of the requirements in the proposal. 

22 So that is mine.
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1 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Steve

2 Rosenstock.

3 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Steve Rosenstock,

4 EEI. And I want to thank Don Brundage for

5 sending this to me. EPRI has done a nice

6 report. You know with some of the motors in

7 terms of the power factors or harmonic issues

8 at the higher TSLs, EPRI did a full report

9 last year in September 2012. They also put

10 out, they were nice enough to send me a

11 PowerPoint presentation they did about their

12 report Grid Impacts due to Increased

13 Penetration of Newer Harmonic Sources. When

14 they tried to look at multiple technologies,

15 including CFLs, LEDs, electric vehicles, and

16 ECMs in the marketplace.

17 And so the presentations in the

18 public domains I am going to probably add that

19 to my comments, since anybody can look at

20 that. The EPRI report is, obviously,

21 confidential. So, Don, I think is working

22 with --
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1 MR. BRUNDAGE: I have started the

2 paperwork to try to get a nondisclosure so

3 they can be provided to Navigant but the

4 PowerPoint summary of that is available and

5 will be included in comments.

6 MR. ROSENSTOCK: Yes, and we think

7 that it will help DOE. Thank you.

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you.

9 Aniruddh.

10 MR. ROY: Just based on our

11 discussion earlier regarding the fact that we

12 are not sure when the test procedure will be

13 released, even though DOE has said that it

14 will be released by the end of this month and,

15 you know, some of the other issues that were

16 pointed out earlier today regarding the

17 extension, we would like to request that DOE

18 extend the comment period deadline. And we

19 will also submit that request in writing to

20 DOE.

21 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Thank you. 

22 Harvey Sachs.
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1 MR. SACHS: Harvey Sachs, ACEEE.

2 I think it is implicit in my

3 comments earlier that we do not believe this

4 comment period should close until there is a

5 bit of time after the test method is firmed

6 up.

7 The other comment I wanted to make

8 is that I appreciate Don and Steve bringing in

9 the power factor issue. I do understand this

10 has been a matter of some concern for a number

11 of utilities and rightfully so. We are

12 working on some other things in terms of water

13 heater controls and stuff to try to address

14 this. But the immediate point would be that

15 my only impression is that first of all the

16 furnace fan has a factor of four less power

17 draw than the compressor. And very few of the

18 compressors today are inverter drive in

19 variable capacity.

20 So the problem will present itself

21 first with the air conditioning compressor and

22 much later in terms of magnitude with the
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1 furnace fan. My gut sense is that the furnace

2 fan has a somewhat more diverse load factor --

3 diversity than the air conditioning compressor

4 but I may be wrong on that.

5 But I do want to make the point

6 that in the context, this is something that

7 should be addressed much more urgently to the

8 compressor manufacturers than to the fan

9 manufacturers.

10 MR. BRUNDAGE: One final comment

11 on the power quality issues. This is not a

12 utility issue. It is a consumer issue that

13 there is not a lot of data on it. If you have

14 a home that is not wired to current standards,

15 particularly in an older one with a smaller

16 neutral, you can have potential for things

17 like fires from overloading the neutral from

18 having too many harmonic loads on it.

19 And it may be something to

20 consider for DOE to assume, at least a small

21 percentage of the cost of wiring upgrades at

22 homes for part of going to furnace fans or
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1 other equipment that has power harmonic

2 issues. Because it is a real issue out there. 

3 And I think it does need to be addressed at

4 some point.

5 It is not strictly speaking a

6 utility issue but there is nobody really

7 available to raise that issue. So, it is an

8 issue, particularly with some older homes. 

9 Thank you.

10 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Okay, thank

11 you. Harvey.

12 MR. SACHS: One final note in the

13 form of a question on this, having done a

14 little bit of wiring myself and Don and I had

15 a little bit of conversation about this. So,

16 I am really going to direct this at Charlie. 

17 It would seem to me that if I am putting in a

18 new furnace, it is my responsibility as a

19 contractor to assure that the wiring back to

20 the panel is appropriate. And that is where 

21 the neutral and grounder merged. So you are

22 helping your guys understand the need, if
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1 there is an undersized common to replace that 

2 romex or conduit or whatever back to the box,

3 aren't you?

4 MR. DURFEE: I can't address that. 

5 I do the policy, not the technology, not the

6 technical stuff.

7 MR. SACHS: Let's talk to Wes.

8 MR. DURFEE: Yes. But I will say

9 yes. I mean I think our contractors

10 understand that this is an electrified product

11 and the occupants of the homes or the

12 buildings, their safety is paramount.

13 MR. SACHS: And Don, similarly it

14 would seem that this would also be an area of

15 interest to the utility. And I wonder if data

16 have been gathered by either Edison or EPRI on

17 the frequency of this undersizing to

18 equipment. It would seem to be an interesting

19 little field study.

20 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: So this seems

21 like it is moving us off point a little bit

22 here, although it is an important point.
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1 But nevertheless, for the conduct

2 of this meeting, I want to thank all of you. 

3 A very, very productive meeting. Lots of

4 really good information came forward. So, I

5 thank you all from my point and turn it back

6 to Ron Majette for closing remarks.

7 MR. MAJETTE: I just wanted to

8 thank all the commenters. I was joking about

9 the eye gouging. I didn't realize that we

10 were going to get our eyes gouged out.

11 It has been a long day and we,

12 just speaking as a spokesperson for the

13 Department, very much appreciate it. I

14 appreciate that we kind of made the meeting a

15 little bit informal and we were able to dive

16 into the weeds to some degree, as a matter of

17 fact to a large degree. However, that going

18 into the weeds actually fleshed out a lot of

19 issues that we need to look at a little bit

20 more.

21 And again, I do hope that

22 everybody will take the comments that they
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1 presented today in some shape, form, or

2 fashion, and make sure that they write that

3 back up so we can actually explore that

4 dialogue away from the meeting so that the

5 team can actually look at all that

6 information.

7 We appreciate your valuable time. 

8 I know it costs a lot for your companies to

9 send you out and I hope you have got a benefit

10 out of this, as well as the benefit that you

11 provided to the general public by presenting

12 your company's viewpoints here at this type of

13 forum.

14 I will take the time out just to

15 thank the DOE staff and the technical staff. 

16 If it looked at any point in time like we were

17 defending anything, it is just there was a lot

18 of work put into trying to put this document

19 together. And the numbers are from our

20 viewpoint from the data that we have been able

21 to collect and gather through various sources.

22 And I know it has been frustrating
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1 at some points in time during the day where we

2 can only give out a portion of where we may

3 have obtained certain data but that is because

4 of confidentiality issues. Trust me, if you

5 tell it to me then that means that the whole

6 world knows about it. So there are things

7 that the laboratory staff will know that we

8 are not privy to. However, that data that

9 they have collected is part of the research

10 and documentation that goes into the final

11 report.

12 Now, as far as we have for steps

13 forward, the immediate thing that we will do

14 right away is any corrections to the slides,

15 especially those that were made as of last

16 night. We will make sure that we get those

17 put up on the website immediately, so that you

18 will have the most latest and accurate data

19 that we have available.

20 MR. SACHS: Will you notify us of

21 when that is done?

22 MR. MAJETTE: No.
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1 (Laughter.)

2 MR. MAJETTE: Okay, I'm sorry,

3 Harvey. Of course. We will notify as fast

4 possible. I guess our mini meetings will be

5 maybe through an email blast that we notify

6 you of those corrections and that the new

7 slides are online.

8 Internally, we have to do some

9 more research just to exactly find out where

10 we are in the test procedure process. It is

11 extremely close to a point that we are nearing

12 what we can publish. However, I do not have

13 that information. I thought I was going to

14 have that all figured out by the time this

15 meeting was over but there was a couple of

16 little nuances that we need to work through. 

17 And as soon as I have some information on that

18 or advance notice of when we are about to

19 publish, I will get that information out to

20 you as soon as possible. I know that that is

21 key to a lot of your base comments in

22 finalizing your comments.
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1 As we stand right now, we are

2 going to have to hold the statutory line that

3 the 12/24 will be the closing date for final

4 comments for the rulemaking. However, I do

5 realize, as a result of the meeting today

6 there are a lot of things that we need to

7 factor in. And just give us time to go

8 through it. There is a lot of programmatic

9 decisions that would have to be made before we

10 can make a comment to extend anything.

11 So right now, we are going to

12 stick with the 12/24 until further notice.

13 MR. SACHS: This is Harvey Sachs

14 from ACEEE.

15 And Kavita, I am really looking to

16 you to perhaps put some distance in this. My

17 sense from the manufacturers at this table is

18 that if we had a test method on our rule

19 today, it would still be an enormous strain to

20 do the calculations, run the spreadsheets, and

21 everything else during the holiday season and

22 get this thing completed by the 24th of
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1 December.

2 I think that is unreasonable. I'm

3 not sure how DOE got into this box but I am

4 extremely uncomfortable with going forward

5 without giving people time to exercise the

6 test method against their product lines and

7 against their plants.

8 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: We appreciate

9 your comments and we have heard the comments

10 from all the manufacturers about extending the

11 deadline.

12 Statutorily, we have the statutory

13 deadline is December 31st for us to get a

14 final rule out and we are working towards

15 that. But we understand with the government

16 shutdown and the other issues that we have had

17 that we have put out information a little

18 later. And we know that you want time for it.

19 So, if you can submit that comment

20 to us in writing, we will consider that.

21 MR. SACHS: I promise to use my

22 influence at NRVC to not file suit if you slip
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1 this, as well as the half-dozen or so other

2 deadlines you have slipped.

3 DR. JAKOBS: Could I just -- I

4 think that if you really do want data from

5 manufacturers that we need that extra time.

6 I think that there are a lot of

7 assumptions that were made for good reasons

8 and we just have to check our assumptions. 

9 So, it would be good to have the opportunity

10 to do that.

11 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: Thank you. We

12 do appreciate those comments. I mean --

13 MR. SACHS: Just say yes.

14 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: Unfortunately,

15 I can't because we have a statutory deadline. 

16 And as a lawyer, I look at the statutes and

17 the regulations to ensure that we are

18 following all of them as closely as possible

19 and we are meeting those deadlines.

20 So as of now, we are trying to

21 meet that deadline of December 31st to get a

22 final rule out. So, we need our comments by
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1 12/24.

2 MR. SACHS: Harvey Sachs again. 

3 Have you thought about the downstream

4 implications of this becoming contested

5 because people did not have time to comment

6 because the comment deadline closed before

7 they could do their relevant analyses?

8 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: I have not

9 because I did not realize that the test

10 procedures were needed to give that data that

11 you need for the standards. But now that I

12 know that information from the manufacturers,

13 and if you could put that in writing, we would

14 consider that as one of the comments.

15 MR. ROY: Aniruddh Roy, AHRI. 

16 Kavita, I have a question for you.

17 Doesn't the statutory deadline

18 also apply to the energy conservation

19 standards? So, wouldn't DOE miss the deadline

20 anyway with respect to not being able to issue

21 a final energy conservation standard rule by

22 December 31st?
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1 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: Right now, we

2 are hoping to not miss any kind of deadlines. 

3 We have, in the past, made from the end of

4 final comment to a final rule, we have been

5 able to publish it within nine days.

6 MR. ROY: Right.

7 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: So, it is

8 possible. I can't tell you in this instance.

9 MR. ROY: Right, but we were under

10 the impression that the EISA of 2007 requires

11 that a final rule be issued by December 31,

12 2013.

13 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: Right.

14 MR. ROY: So, you might come up

15 with a test procedure by the end of this month

16 but it is very unlikely that the NOPR, the

17 Energy Conservations Standards NOPR will be

18 converted into a final rule because you have

19 to consider the comments that you receive by

20 December 24th. And it would take some time to

21 digest those comments and then issue a final

22 rule, which would be most likely past December
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1 31st. Right?

2 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: From our

3 standpoint, we are hoping to meet the

4 deadline. So, we are hoping to be able to

5 consider all the comments and be able to meet

6 the deadline, at this point.

7 If things change, we will

8 obviously let everybody, all the interested

9 parties know.

10 MR. BRUNDAGE: I have got a bigger

11 problem with DOE putting out a final rule on

12 December 31st after a comment deadline of

13 December 24th than the December 24th deadline. 

14 Because that is basically, even if it were in

15 the middle of March or something, not enough

16 time to adequately consider. With holidays

17 and everything else going on, I really don't

18 think a reasonable person would think that it

19 is possible to adequately consider complex

20 comments and issue a final rule in one week.

21 That would be stretching

22 credibility any time of the year. On the week
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1 between Christmas and New Year's it is,

2 frankly ludicrous. 

3 I really would like to see more

4 time between the comment deadline and when you

5 -- because I don't think you have time to

6 adequately even digest, much less respond, to

7 the comments with that kind of schedule.

8 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: Thank you. I

9 appreciate that comment and we will take that

10 into consideration. I mean, we are looking at

11 all comments and we understand that we have to

12 look at -- we will look at them and give

13 reasonable interpretations and reasonable

14 assurances to make sure we comment on all of

15 your public comments and respond to them in an

16 adequate manner.

17 So, we do understand that we do

18 need time.

19 MR. SACHS: Just to pile on a bit,

20 this is Harvey again. I don't think you can

21 get through Diane's comments in that period of

22 time.
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1 (Laughter.)

2 MS. VAIDYANATHAN: Well, we have

3 received some of Diane's comments already and

4 we are looking through those.

5 DR. JAKOBS: Diane has been

6 worried for weeks and I actually, I sent some

7 questions. So yes, thank you.

8 MODERATOR BROOKMAN: Let's go

9 home. Thank you very much, as always.

10 (Whereupon, at 4:57 p.m., the

11 foregoing meeting was adjourned.) 

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22
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combine 98:4

combusted 68:1

come 16:17 30:5

31:3,11 38:22

40:2 50:21 79:9

99:19 103:21

121:10 146:3

171:14,14,15

198:1 204:3

209:20,21 227:18

238:22 239:2

266:20 300:20

302:3 308:20

318:9 320:1

321:10 353:7

370:14

comes 17:21 73:9

151:15 210:6

221:2 224:21

227:5 286:14

342:9

comfort 245:15

300:2 310:10

comfortable 145:20

coming 25:15,19

30:9 131:11

294:18

comment 15:11

16:1 35:13 37:5

37:12 46:14 50:5

92:3 95:8 103:13

139:12 154:20

168:15 169:13

172:9 186:11

189:2 190:11

198:16 257:17

262:13 277:20

300:6 333:17

357:18 358:4,7

359:10 366:10

367:19 369:5,6

370:4 371:12

372:4,9,14

commentary

157:15

commented 47:2

commenters 362:8

comments 6:3

12:17 13:1 15:16

16:4 20:21 23:6

30:13 31:19 33:3

33:15 34:18 37:15

38:1 39:5 44:9

46:12,20 47:11

65:17 71:6,8 75:7

75:8 78:18 79:8,8

79:10 81:3 87:16

92:5 100:14 104:3

105:22 106:8

111:8 123:8

124:20 128:12

140:1 146:7,8

147:19 162:2

167:5,8 170:11

171:4 172:12

196:13 197:18

201:21 204:1

271:9 280:17,19

289:8,22 291:8,12

296:13 298:21

305:21 313:10

321:17 327:13

328:5 334:4

335:11 336:5

347:3 350:13

352:20 353:14

354:5,12 355:14

356:19 357:5

358:3 362:22

365:21,22 366:4

367:9,9 368:12,22

369:14 370:19,21

371:5,20 372:7,11

372:15,21 373:3

commercial 133:17

350:8

commercialized

137:2,4,6,15

commercially

133:6

commercially-av...

108:1 136:15

137:12,22 138:3

161:8

committee 217:4

common 81:12

132:13 216:6,8

219:11 267:17

361:1

companies 321:12

363:8

company 1:18,18

2:2 7:21 8:5 9:13

21:2 165:11

171:13

company's 363:12

comparable 230:8

298:21

compare 101:20

193:17 216:22

233:17 235:14

274:18

compared 40:21

50:1 163:13

234:20 313:3

337:20

comparing 100:22

101:3 102:7

comparison 101:14

279:7 298:7

comparisons

102:11

compete 350:14

351:2

competition 195:14

349:18

competitive 81:17

195:21 314:22

350:7

competitors 324:21

compile 89:19 90:2

complete 6:1 11:10

11:11 13:11 121:3

121:7 316:11

completed 31:16

215:10 366:22

completely 98:8

129:1 131:10

265:6,20 267:1

completion 330:1

complex 254:1,2

265:2,18 354:20

371:19

complexity 193:6

262:17 351:9

compliance 53:14

53:16 195:20

249:21 252:11

270:8 289:5

295:22 315:2

319:15 353:11

compliant 152:10

complicated 89:6

comply 257:5

component 56:19

98:2 127:9 144:19

145:1 165:16

220:20 276:5

295:5

components 133:10

158:5,8,9,21,22

159:2 166:10

265:8 325:4

compressed 48:18

compressor 152:3

244:15 358:17,21

359:3,8

compressors

358:18

COMSTOCK 1:20

concept 70:4

137:14

concern 17:16,17

325:19 358:10
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concerned 16:18

18:12,15 31:15

45:15 58:4 72:1

103:4 127:6,10

134:14 337:12

concerns 20:5 21:4

25:6,10 129:2

243:3

concise 13:16

conclude 353:21

concluded 108:10

113:7

condensed 177:10

condenser 67:13

condensing 19:14

62:10 83:9 102:21

107:9 108:19

110:5,18 125:21

126:2 128:2,17

129:4 134:7

135:15 226:17

233:9 271:15

279:6 288:17

289:2

conditioner 21:11

69:3 75:18,22

79:17 206:3 303:9

303:11 304:7

conditioners 79:22

80:3 81:9 205:18

206:2

conditioning 2:6,10

7:17 22:14 56:8

57:21 86:4 125:8

202:19 205:16

219:1 244:15

245:13 305:6,16

306:1 358:21

359:3

conditions 73:21

80:10 97:10 206:7

225:9

conduct 11:3 362:1

conducted 227:21

269:5 270:17

279:2

conduit 361:2

conferences 32:4

confessions 112:10

112:10

confident 123:8

139:6 205:2

confidential 100:13

101:3 145:13

171:5,11 356:21

confidentiality

364:4

configuration

56:20 81:12

confluence 74:15

confuse 36:9 346:6

confused 66:16

68:11 78:7,8

184:3 258:9

confuses 274:5

confusing 75:13

97:22 261:4

confusion 240:22

267:9 277:11

309:5 311:12

Congress 30:22

71:2 347:21

conjunction 21:10

cons 14:1

consensus 79:21

consequences

125:15 355:18

conservation 1:4

5:4 15:12 46:1

59:8,15,18 60:2

293:22 314:4

369:18,21

Conservations

370:17

conservative

231:18 301:4

consider 14:1 45:22

54:10 55:4 70:8

84:10 118:19

136:11 143:7

146:8 148:6

241:16 309:11

337:16 352:7,10

359:20 367:20

369:14 370:19

371:5,16,19

considerable 48:8

consideration 13:8

255:10 256:19

302:8 312:14

372:10

considerations

314:22

considered 56:4

58:2 59:20,22

61:7,9,10,21 62:7

63:13,15 67:15,18

77:10 78:3,3

90:11 126:8 136:6

136:14 137:9

141:17 142:15

147:6,16 151:19

253:4 262:2 318:5

336:14 342:19

344:5

considering 151:7

325:9

considers 144:17

322:1

consist 144:18

consistent 39:11

102:6,11 212:10

221:3,16 290:9

constant 19:15 24:3

24:4 28:16 39:9

39:11 42:3 112:17

114:12 134:6,9,16

135:6 161:15

162:6,19,22 163:2

164:13 181:2

183:2 202:7

209:20 223:13

231:9,11 233:1

239:2 242:5 244:4

306:19

constant-airflow

241:13 244:20

constant-CFM

299:21

constant-torque

239:18 241:12

242:9 246:10

263:21 299:20

345:21 351:7

constraints 150:4

315:1

constructed 307:18

construction

175:11,11 176:10

176:15 191:12

226:12,20 227:6,8

284:22 285:21,22

286:19 288:10

292:16,19

constructions

283:21

consulted 153:11

Consulting 2:1,3,4

2:22 8:16,18,20

9:15 38:14 59:3

77:13 92:22 100:2

118:9 122:3

136:22 144:5

145:10 212:4

309:19

consumer 20:15

27:21 30:2 119:17

119:18 141:4

174:18 176:9,13

176:18 180:3,14

184:8,20 185:5,11

186:17 243:5

250:1,14,21

267:10 268:12

269:4 275:19,21

277:3 279:3

280:19 335:21

336:12 351:10

359:12

consumers 27:4,10

27:11 29:21 30:1

128:6 272:7

273:15 275:2,9,9

278:7,17 280:3,15

323:5 336:19

337:6,10,11,16,17

338:10,10 341:5,6

341:8,21 342:10

consumes 123:3

consumption 26:15

42:5 43:1 83:7

91:3,5,13,19

94:16,18 100:11

101:19 102:10

118:15 122:16

202:2 207:12

212:21 295:4

consumptions

213:4

content 3:15 11:4,9

15:2 75:8 82:21

316:5,12,14

contents 30:17

contested 369:4

context 127:11

305:13 349:14

359:6

contiguous 11:8

continue 51:18

241:21 345:8

continuous 206:18

207:4,9,20 213:20

214:20 218:10

227:15,19 228:1,8

229:17 231:1

239:1 241:2

255:22

contract 178:4

contractor 27:15

65:1,6,10 66:6

75:21 77:1,5

175:16,17 176:1,2

176:8,12,13 177:2

177:20 178:5,5,10

178:13 179:15

181:8,8 182:22

183:13 184:14

360:19

contractors 2:7

7:17 86:4 125:8

154:4 178:14

193:18 197:5

300:16 361:9

contribute 156:12

contributed 80:13
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control 27:12 71:20

91:14 108:4

122:17 123:2

147:4 149:18

150:3 192:4,10,18

243:10 244:14

254:8,11 261:21

262:1

controller 267:15

267:17

controls 28:17

158:7,10 159:2

161:10 190:8

192:5 223:12

224:5 253:10,19

253:21,22 254:1,2

265:2,13,14,15,18

266:3 358:13

convenience 78:11

conversation

104:12 360:15

conversations

13:15 66:2

conversion 160:22

316:17 317:21,21

317:22 318:2,6,9

320:20 322:16

325:18 326:7

327:1

converted 61:8

65:19 370:18

converting 289:2

295:3

convoluted 70:2

cooked 196:14

cooling 73:18 77:14

77:17 78:2,22

92:11,16 93:3,8

93:12,13 94:5

129:14 131:3

202:6 203:15

206:13 207:19

208:7 209:19

210:16,22 211:3,7

211:16,22 213:2

213:18 214:6,17

217:7,8,20 218:5

218:11,14,17

222:5 224:16,21

225:1 231:4 232:4

232:16 233:22

241:2 304:18

305:6,10,19 306:9

copies 320:1

copper 152:5,6

157:8,9

copy 248:16 320:6

320:12

copyrighted 22:4

corner 248:11

Corporation 1:22

2:5,13 7:15 9:4,6

146:17,21

correct 50:11 51:2

58:11 62:22 67:5

67:6 68:4 88:7,9

94:8 97:13 148:17

166:20,21 189:11

191:14,17,19

206:8,9 208:12

210:8,14 211:10

216:13 217:14

219:21 226:3

230:18 232:18

254:12 260:7

264:1 268:14

272:17 293:13

300:4 301:17

318:17 319:10,18

323:16 324:2

329:11

corrected 320:11

corrections 364:14

365:6

correctly 44:4

51:10 97:8 200:18

348:12,15

correlate 276:15

correlation 281:18

correlations 340:12

340:13

corresponding

56:16 60:1 85:12

cost 4:3 20:9 91:4

106:21 107:4,19

114:16 119:16

120:7 140:5,13

141:6,22 143:13

154:10 158:1,2,3

159:11 161:7,12

161:17,17,18

162:1,3,13,15,15

162:17 163:5,21

165:15 166:20

167:18 174:16

180:5 183:21

184:13,15 185:2,8

190:13 192:6,8,10

192:17,18,21

197:15 199:16

200:19 242:22

243:22 248:21

249:2,7,14 250:6

250:6 251:14

253:7 259:22

260:14 271:18,20

272:2 274:18,19

274:21,22 275:13

275:16,18,21

276:9 278:3,21

279:18 280:8,12

286:4 294:6

299:15 318:9,21

319:12 324:18

326:7 327:1

332:22 333:15

337:7 338:20

339:7 341:12

351:10,11,12

359:21

cost-effective 310:5

cost-effectiveness

309:22 310:19

cost-efficiency 91:8

166:1,2,6

cost/efficiency

107:16,20

costs 12:7 126:3,16

134:15 140:6,15

140:16 142:9

160:9,16,22

161:11 162:8

166:8,20 175:1,3

179:22 181:5

183:15,18 184:18

185:4,14,16,17,18

186:1,5,9 187:10

187:18 188:18

189:4 190:2,3,12

193:8 198:5

249:17,18,19

250:10,11,13,16

250:16 251:1,20

252:13,15 253:3,5

253:10 264:5

268:12 271:22

272:8,12 275:17

275:17 280:13,14

285:14 298:7,10

298:11 299:2

316:8,17 317:3,21

317:21,22 318:2,6

320:20 322:17

323:4,9 324:15

325:18 333:19

336:1,17,19

337:12,18 338:14

339:10 341:22

343:18 351:14

352:4 363:8

Council 2:11 7:5

10:1

Counsel's 8:8

count 306:3

counted 305:18

counter 239:20

counter-intuitive

239:11

counting 303:18

305:19 343:11

country 120:10

186:21 208:15

232:7

couple 25:3 32:3

74:17 92:5 99:3

187:9 234:22

284:18 308:21

325:15 352:14

353:15 365:15

coupled 32:18

course 30:4 39:3

72:22 76:6,15

111:3 196:4 234:7

240:6 365:3

cover 11:6,6,7 93:7

142:17 160:19

coverage 57:19

71:6

covered 12:18 21:8

21:15 57:11 60:11

66:21 69:5 70:5

70:11 71:1 76:17

88:13 139:17

172:16 258:4,5

315:10

create 11:10 118:5

211:21 315:13

332:7

credibility 371:22

credit 279:20

crippled 244:12

criteria 3:18 45:21

55:6 119:3,14

136:19 137:4

217:18 218:2,4

220:12 302:13

critical 48:17

CRUDDEN 190:21

191:8,11,15,18,20

256:3,9

Crystal 249:9

CTM 110:15

cube 211:22 212:1

212:1

cubic 94:15 95:21

311:1,20

cumulative 306:15

343:17,17

curious 73:7 85:5

132:18 141:8

162:5 181:17

292:2,10 297:1

current 30:3 37:20

57:19 66:19 117:3

262:1 329:14,15
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Neal R. Gross and Co., Inc.

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329:20 332:21

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currently 123:22

186:16

curve 107:17 124:5

200:9 209:17

210:6 213:12

214:4,11 216:4

217:1 223:9 238:3

238:3,4,8 239:8

250:22 298:5

curves 107:20

111:6,9 166:1

201:15 203:18

204:2,3 205:3,7

209:15 213:15

214:2,12 215:1,8

215:8,10 217:18

218:1 219:12

222:12,13 223:3

238:5,6 239:6

339:7

customer 189:5

customers 75:2

117:1 300:8 317:3

350:1

cut 95:5 210:19

233:1 330:9

cycle 12:7 206:6

306:13 337:18

338:13 339:6

Cymbalsky 1:16

8:11,11 72:13,14

72:15 73:5 87:4

87:10 88:12,15

282:3,4,12

D

D 2:8 318:7 319:14

321:8

D.C 5:8,17

DACCA 218:22

dad 47:18

dad's 47:13

Daikin 1:19

darked-out 78:5

dashed 214:11,14

data 16:13,14,15

17:12,12,13,19,22

18:9,14 19:1,4,7,9

19:20 20:10 22:19

26:8 41:16 43:5,8

43:11,22 47:6,9

48:16 83:18,20

84:9,13 85:13

94:14 95:1,3 96:1

100:12,15 101:2,2

101:3,16 103:16

105:21 106:2

107:1 108:8,9

109:18 110:4

111:5 114:16

120:18 121:6,16

121:18 122:9,10

123:15 124:13,18

125:4 133:19,19

133:22 134:20

138:18 139:8

167:3 170:8 171:5

172:3 178:6,9

179:1 200:20

201:6 203:13,18

203:19,22,22

204:4,5,12 205:5

206:17,19 208:4,9

209:20 215:2,4,5

215:5,6 219:22

225:10,11 227:4

227:18 229:5

231:17 235:8

237:9,14 238:5

245:6,19 262:4,4

262:6 264:11

268:22 269:4,6,17

269:18,19 286:11

286:20,22 287:17

287:17,18 288:11

289:19 290:5,13

297:20 310:14

313:22,22 315:16

315:19 323:21

347:9 352:2

359:13 361:15

363:20 364:3,8,18

368:4 369:10

data-gathering

150:14

database 19:11

datapoints 109:6

109:11,14 121:9

date 33:1 34:17

46:19 53:13,14,16

54:5 315:2 366:3

Dave 2:20 6:19 8:2

48:1,2 82:7 105:8

105:9 111:13

150:17 181:11

263:12,13 320:16

320:18 326:22

345:17 346:10

350:11 352:12

David 2:8 182:12

day 10:12 12:15,22

35:15 243:21

327:19 336:11

362:11 364:1

days 32:21 61:2

217:11 370:5

DC 1:12

DE 196:7 197:14

300:6

deadline 50:5

330:18 357:18

367:11,13 368:15

368:21 369:6,17

369:19 371:4,6,12

371:13 372:4

deadlines 51:12

368:2,19 370:2

deal 192:2

dealer 175:18

176:17,22 177:3

177:21 178:8,13

dealing 199:1

decade 26:18 127:9

289:16

decades 267:10

December 1:9 5:6

32:11 367:1,13

368:21 369:22

370:11,20,22

371:12,13,13

decide 229:19

decided 69:12

decides 75:21

decision 55:8 66:11

77:1,5 243:11

decisions 69:6,12

366:9

decrease 322:16

decreasing 214:12

deem 171:12

deep 45:10 129:16

default 82:14

defending 363:17

Defense 10:1

defer 92:19

define 56:5 147:1

191:2

defined 36:20

61:20 63:14 82:12

133:3 309:16

defines 76:10 324:8

defining 66:22

definitely 64:7

113:18 164:4,9

227:10

definition 56:16

60:15 66:19 70:2

77:15,20 99:22

275:14

defrost 73:10,12

degradation 80:6

degree 151:15

277:8 362:16,17

degrees 198:7

deLaski 1:21 3:13

7:18,18 24:20,21

52:9 54:15 81:5

82:3 148:21

151:22

deLaski's 151:7

deLaskiá 119:5

delay 293:11,11

329:22

delta 308:8

deluxe 193:5

demand 291:12

demolished 285:10

denominator 23:17

37:19,20,21 38:21

39:8,10 40:16

41:13 42:2,2,12

42:16,21 44:5,10

98:18 101:7,22

102:1,3,6,6

denominator/nu...

103:9

Department 1:2,15

1:16,16 2:6 5:15

8:7 14:1,8 15:22

21:5 25:15,19

26:20,21 30:11

50:15 51:11 53:6

53:15 54:2,3,10

88:20 89:18 90:1

103:12,14 106:1

122:5,6 124:17

125:3 137:10

145:21 152:2,16

171:1 231:18

298:6 342:6 352:7

362:13

Department's 28:3

54:7 55:8 73:2

departments

300:18

depending 37:22

76:10 175:13

203:6 211:12

213:21 224:8

233:22 238:5

286:4

depends 226:15

232:6 239:2

279:15

depth 160:19

derivation 23:13

284:16

derive 121:18

340:8

derived 82:13 85:4

113:11 329:13

336:1

describe 20:2
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52:11 55:6 149:20

168:13 197:3

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309:15 313:19

describing 43:17

description 45:13

177:15

deserves 26:17,17

26:19 27:2

design 18:4,8,11

19:13 29:8 74:9

82:15 83:13 92:10

94:9 95:16 119:6

133:3,6,10 136:6

136:6 140:22

144:20 149:17

161:6 203:8 217:6

217:8 218:17,22

306:17 309:12,16

309:20 318:4

319:14 351:18

design-option

310:2

designated 212:17

213:1 233:12

designed 66:1 68:3

113:13 217:13

219:9 220:22

designing 93:15

217:10

designs 107:10

253:11

desk 99:19

despite 344:10

destroy 131:5

detail 46:3 161:3

175:19 202:12

203:15 286:15

288:1 304:16

313:19 340:19

detailed 11:4 79:8

352:19

details 43:13 44:21

49:20,21 84:21

96:4 126:15

211:10 227:12

284:17 286:19

296:15,15 297:11

340:20

detangle 79:6

determine 82:5

112:17 115:2

125:3 162:1 247:5

determined 64:22

108:15 133:12

devastate 355:19

develop 132:5

209:14 316:13

developed 59:7,19

59:21 107:17,18

107:18 140:6,9

167:21 175:8

176:2 201:1

developing 31:4

107:3 159:15

302:2

development

297:11 320:21

352:4

device 56:6

diagrams 113:10

dialog 6:5 25:5 30:9

dialogue 363:4

Diane 2:3 3:10 7:12

16:6 33:9 43:4

46:21 47:22 48:20

54:12 57:4 58:6

71:11 73:6 76:4

97:16,17 104:21

114:4,5 140:18

142:18,19 144:15

152:11 158:11

165:2,8 169:8

170:17 179:10

191:21 204:10

215:13 240:11

241:6 254:5 260:8

274:3 290:11

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HH 98:18

Hi 171:9 218:19

314:8 318:12

high 74:12 79:17

199:17 241:20

298:17 303:12

316:13 337:19

high-income

279:18

high-volume 159:9

159:14,17 163:15

164:13,14 168:8

169:3

higher 25:22 39:16

74:4,7 110:20,21

119:22 120:1

155:20 175:4

179:6 180:19

183:6,17 193:4

196:1 197:6

200:13 205:17

211:22 221:10

224:3 235:11

236:13,22 237:1,3

237:4 238:11,14

242:18 263:8

280:1,14 302:18

310:22 318:5

325:4 330:19

337:11,18 338:13

341:11,13 356:8

higher-capacity

95:17

higher-efficiency

147:6,11

higher-selling

116:11

highest 210:22

211:16 215:18

highlight 156:6

highlighted 336:15

342:20

historical 85:13

127:9 218:18

284:21 285:4,19

285:20 286:5

287:21 291:17

297:19

historically 168:16

history 32:1 40:11

45:13 79:15

hit 214:11 352:21

hold 125:21 252:5

366:2

holding 30:11

hole 118:2

holes 198:6

holiday 366:21

holidays 371:16

home 84:3,4 86:19

86:22,22 175:12

175:17,18 176:16

176:17,22 177:2,3

178:5,8,13 220:5

220:6,9,16 221:11

241:12 286:10

346:13 359:14

373:9

homeowner 199:17

homes 130:10,10

176:15 206:5

208:6 219:19

220:3 221:5,10,15

292:3 359:22

360:8 361:11

hope 5:18 23:11

47:3 151:19

154:22 155:7

173:13 198:12

199:8 254:17

362:21 363:9

hoped 29:5

hopefully 24:12

76:8 176:4 208:22

213:7 217:7

222:15

hoping 99:21 370:2

371:3,4

horsepower 129:19

130:2

hour 172:19 237:21

257:6 328:2

hours 23:17 26:12

40:18,21 41:7,7

91:16,19,20,22

202:11,14 206:4

206:13,18 208:10

208:16 209:10,12

209:18,19 224:12

224:14,17 225:2

225:13,21,21

227:16 228:13

230:14,16 231:6

232:11,17 233:16

234:16,17,18,20

235:4,15 236:19

236:20 237:7,20

239:17,22 252:18

253:17 255:16,21

256:18 259:3,19

260:6 261:12,18

263:18 265:10

306:9 307:14

339:21

house 27:13 47:13

186:21 276:3

household 26:13

28:8 202:3,19

203:7,9,12 204:7

207:3 209:6,17

211:13,14,17

218:15,16 221:22

239:9 266:10

267:6 296:8

households 205:1,6

205:8,9 210:9

211:14 222:9

224:22 227:19

228:1,8 230:13

242:13,17 246:20

248:3 279:4,5

290:6

houses 226:13,13

285:10 330:15

housing 29:8

107:10 108:6

119:6 129:10

158:8 284:20

286:12 287:1

housing/impeller

148:4

HR 72:16

HSPF 69:5,7 70:5

73:9 74:9 232:17

351:18

huge 28:12 229:18

hum 86:8 94:12

115:10 135:17

141:7

humanly 53:7

humidity 244:14
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humongous 311:19

hundred 267:18

hundreds 221:4

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hung 16:16

Hunt 2:2 7:20,20

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231:13,15 247:17

247:22 248:4

354:11

hurry 355:11,14

husband 245:3

HVAC 56:17,19,20

108:1 117:13

142:15,17 144:19

151:8 154:12

156:8 157:4,13

158:3 314:14

hybrid 310:1

hydronic 67:14,17

I

ID 173:6

idea 127:17 148:11

148:14 352:15

ideas 300:22 301:1

identification 25:12

identified 25:11

324:11

identify 314:16

324:12

ignorance 171:3

ignored 129:1

154:13

ignoring 118:15

331:7

III.3 228:14

ill-considered

66:12

illustrate 15:22

214:1 250:3

297:13,16

illustrated 302:22

illustrates 176:4

285:15

illustrative 339:2

imagine 321:12

imagined 141:9

immediate 6:17

358:14 364:13

immediately 10:17

11:13 65:17

282:10 364:17

impact 4:5,5,7 12:8

12:9,13,13 83:7

119:14,15 142:14

143:10,10 150:20

151:10,18 156:13

156:20 159:11

160:20 189:6

202:16,17,20

205:14,15,17

207:11 209:8

272:7,8,9,18,19

272:22 273:3

275:8 283:4

293:15,20,22

294:12 310:8

313:4,13 314:5,10

315:5,21 324:6

331:17 332:6

334:8,21 335:12

335:14,17,19,20

336:2,6,20 342:18

344:9,11

impacted 151:14

272:11,12 273:12

275:2,9 289:3

impacts 4:9 95:8,16

126:8,15 151:9

157:7 268:12

270:21 284:8

308:20 314:12,17

314:18 315:10

324:13 327:13

328:18 335:11

336:17 342:19

343:20,22 344:16

344:18 348:6

352:4,11 353:19

356:12

impeller 108:5

137:19 158:7

163:13

impellers 161:21

163:16

implementation

197:7 331:22

implications 369:4

implicit 358:2

implicitly 71:1

implies 255:6 263:2

imply 326:11

341:10

importance 26:1

28:1

important 10:22

56:12 71:7 72:7

83:3 200:15 212:7

246:14 268:4

288:15 296:10

335:6 338:18

340:9 345:13

361:22

importantly 101:16

impression 358:15

370:10

improve 26:4

133:11 321:14

improved 18:4 29:7

29:7 112:1 147:1

147:2 205:7

237:18 269:16

improvement 25:9

29:9 48:8 101:8

119:10,11

improvements

29:14 31:2 69:19

104:1 119:6

improving 69:12

ImSET 336:3

in-between 52:21

incentive 127:12

incentives 243:19

inch 204:11

inches 210:13

217:22

include 38:20 57:1

93:8 100:9,10

103:17 119:8

126:11 128:14

139:6 147:19

154:6 159:5

162:12 175:3

197:9 206:14

249:18 250:9,14

275:18 305:21

307:11 319:15

included 21:11

29:5,9,15 40:15

66:3 67:4,15

76:14,14 77:17

80:2 94:19 101:7

102:1 124:19

127:1 133:22

138:1 139:10

141:22 150:14

151:11 158:6

165:16,17 175:14

187:17 207:5,7

252:15 269:3

357:5

includes 44:5,15

57:20,22 95:15

108:3 118:11

128:2 162:15

178:12,14 202:15

202:17 203:21

215:3 230:5 233:7

241:1 249:16

250:22 252:17

271:21 275:16

277:13 303:11

304:7 305:8

319:13 340:4

345:5

including 15:14

29:7,7 69:14

150:22 169:3

175:15 178:13

250:10 305:9

319:11 336:14

340:9 342:17

356:15

income 279:10

280:3,3 289:12

290:6,13 327:9

inconsistency 335:8

inconsistent 42:14

331:9

incorporated

106:17

increase 94:17,19

95:6 119:19 143:8

190:2,18 193:6

197:15 273:17

317:9 334:11

351:10

increased 40:17

105:2 183:21

192:14 294:6

297:22 317:3

335:1 356:12

increases 183:22

increasing 113:18

119:12 192:20

351:8

increment 179:12

179:16 180:9,12

incremental 174:20

174:22 175:1,2

179:4,6,12 180:6

180:9,11 181:2

182:1,15 184:15

185:8 187:14

190:5,11 192:21

243:22 276:11

308:15 323:4

338:20

increments 179:15

incur 160:9,16

Independence 1:12

independent 77:3

98:9

Index 225:8

indicate 220:4

334:8

indicator 343:18

indirect 335:15,19

individual 209:17

individuals 13:18

13:22

indoor 64:20 67:13

74:10 206:7

255:14 303:11,12
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Page 394

inducer 158:16

159:5

industry 21:20

44:16 49:16 50:7

111:19 144:17

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156:10 163:13

168:6 271:3 315:6

315:8,13 316:4

318:6,9,22 319:3

319:8 321:9 322:4

322:10,14 323:14

323:17,22 324:14

335:16 342:3,10

343:11 344:9

351:2

industry-wide

321:21

inefficiency 96:18

inflation 250:22

influence 164:7

367:22

inform 256:15

informal 362:15

information 1:20

5:22 6:7 10:14

25:16 30:9 36:14

51:1 52:1 100:5,8

100:19 111:8

122:7,8,11 127:7

139:13 144:7

156:12 171:12

172:10 177:11

178:2 194:11,21

195:9 207:9

228:20 256:1,14

258:7 271:1 285:1

290:8 297:20

313:9 316:7 321:5

339:17 340:1,9,18

362:4 363:6

365:13,17,19

367:17 369:12

Ingersoll-Rand

2:18 7:11 23:9

25:7 32:7

ingrained 30:20

inherent 128:15

initial 36:10 48:8

initiatives 26:5,6

innocent 193:22

innovation 196:10

345:3

input 94:5 120:11

120:18 153:9

163:22 177:4

178:19 269:8

270:6 284:15

294:21 297:19

301:19 307:15

315:20 321:3,6,8

335:6

inputs 49:18,21

120:1 122:15

151:20 162:1

177:14 203:3

250:4,9,21 285:17

287:10 294:12,14

315:22

INPV 321:22 322:8

323:21 343:2

344:15

ins 142:6

insert 15:1

inserted 15:2

inside 50:1 142:7

insights 339:17

insinuating 326:16

install 118:21

119:15 120:7

installation 65:7

126:3,16 193:9

250:16 252:15

275:18

installations 80:14

284:13,19,22

installed 21:9 61:4

61:15 62:1,6,19

63:12,17,22 64:1

64:1,5 65:6

137:11 192:8

219:13 220:22

243:8 249:13,17

250:13 271:18

272:2 275:13,15

275:17,17,21

276:2 278:3

311:17

installing 192:15

installs 65:1

instance 152:8

355:2 370:8

instances 212:14

Institute 2:9,10 7:3

7:9 35:20 109:4

225:18 228:11

234:5 296:20

318:13 325:8

331:2 334:14

instructions 199:4

insulation 152:3

insurance 190:14

integral 149:16

integrate 201:14

integrated 148:12

148:16 158:7

intend 12:20 71:22

intended 59:12

61:2 66:1 93:7

101:17

interacts 238:3

interagency 333:1

333:16

intercept 108:14

112:18 132:4

135:3

interest 269:6

279:22 280:11,13

328:5 361:15

interested 4:16

43:13 47:16 371:8

interesting 277:22

341:19 361:18

interests 150:6

intermediate 135:4

135:6

internal 83:5,10

128:16 205:10

Internally 365:8

International 6:20

interpretation

56:15 278:1,8

interpretations

372:13

interrelated 38:8

interrupting 17:1

Interruption 90:16

165:7

intersection 213:14

214:5 238:8

Intertek 2:7 9:17

interval 267:13

353:11

interview 172:1

interviews 100:17

101:10 106:20

120:21 121:14

145:13 316:2

317:22

introduce 8:10 10:9

introductions 3:5

6:11

inventory 190:13

190:15

inverter 139:2

161:10,13 358:18

inverter-driven

137:20 237:19

investing 153:22

investment 155:17

281:7 319:1,2

investments 317:10

317:13 324:14

338:6

invisible 27:3,10,22

invite 15:11,15

167:2

involved 70:17

146:12 151:14

160:22 170:3

involves 314:21

isá 16:21

issue 15:21 50:18

52:6 53:12 73:22

79:15 150:19

165:11 201:7

304:5,13 305:22

320:7 350:21

358:9 359:12,12

360:2,6,7,8

369:20 370:21

371:20

issued 331:14

370:11

issues 10:22 14:2

15:17 16:1 21:17

21:19 22:5 24:10

170:12 195:16

251:14 316:1

351:22 354:5

356:7 357:15

359:11 360:2

362:19 364:4

367:16

item 154:9 190:14

190:16

items 190:12

197:16

J

J 1:18

Jakobs 2:3 3:10

7:12,12 16:7,20

17:6,8 18:22

20:18 39:8 43:5,8

46:22 47:18 54:13

57:2,6 58:7,12,21

71:12,16 97:17,18

97:21 104:22

112:6,11 114:5

115:2 140:19

141:8,18 142:2,19

158:12,18,21

159:3 165:3,9,19

169:9,12 170:13

179:9,10 180:17

191:22 204:10,17

215:14 216:6

217:3,15 241:6,6

241:11 243:2,13

245:2 246:3 254:5

254:6,10,13,16

260:9,19 261:1,15

261:19 274:4,14

290:15 291:3
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Page 395

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JAMES 2:18

Jasinski 2:3 8:17

8:17 38:11,13,14

39:17,20 40:3,9

44:7 45:1 59:2,2

60:14 61:19 62:2

62:5,11,18 63:2,6

63:10,18 64:5

67:6,17 68:4,8,13

68:17 77:12,12

92:21,21 94:7,13

95:2 97:13 98:20

99:1,7 100:1,2

103:11 115:15,16

116:14 117:11

118:8,8 120:14

122:2,3 124:11,15

126:9,11,14,18,22

136:21,21 138:12

139:1,20 144:4,5

145:9,9,19 212:3

212:4 309:18,18

Jim 3:12 7:10 23:8

32:6 37:12 38:4

44:18,19 76:3

79:16 81:21,22

92:2,4 106:8

109:16 115:7

125:11 129:8

130:20 134:5

149:19 153:15

154:3 162:4 187:8

198:15 199:14

201:5 210:4 212:5

212:18 226:7,8

258:21,22

Jim's 75:6 212:12

job 71:2 342:2

jobs 335:16 346:15

348:12,14,14

349:14 350:3

John 1:16 8:9,11

72:13,14 80:12

87:7 88:15 282:2

joining 14:11 104:7

154:19 155:6

173:12

joint 272:11

joking 362:8

JOSHUA 1:15

JR 1:18

judgment 113:21

jump 251:10

292:11 293:3

June 331:15

justified 123:12

242:5

justifies 343:5

K

K 2:15

Karen 104:13,15

104:19 154:18,21

155:3,5 160:2

Kavita 1:16 8:6

145:22 146:1

171:8,10 366:15

369:16

keep 13:13 14:20

17:4 47:14 52:5

82:20 89:8 90:22

112:12 155:11

156:18 196:5

271:9 289:8

291:10 301:20

312:16

keeping 112:17,22

keeps 93:18

kept 52:19

Kevin 2:1 3:20,22

8:15 55:17 82:20

82:20 84:18 90:7

90:22 99:2 118:11

122:10 135:12

136:4 157:21

167:10

key 64:12 150:19

294:20 315:22

316:12 337:3,9

350:20 365:21

kilowatt 26:12

225:20,21 233:16

234:17,17 236:20

237:20,21 239:17

239:22

kind 64:19 70:2

74:8 105:16 110:7

114:9 132:18

142:4 161:5

186:18,19 188:6

193:17 217:12

222:8 223:20

235:9 239:13,20

245:7 247:14

268:18 272:20

286:3 292:2,9,13

293:5 295:15

296:22 308:19

332:11 348:5

351:7 362:14

370:2 372:7

kit 64:3

knew 192:6,10

know 14:12,12

17:15 19:8 27:4

30:21 31:7 33:10

33:12,16 35:8

37:5 40:6 46:3

47:3,3,13 48:6

49:17,17 50:1,5

52:4,11,13,15

53:3,18 59:12

64:8 65:6,8,12

71:14,22 72:8,9

72:17 73:13 75:15

76:6 77:2,4 82:8

85:2,6 94:15 97:4

98:3 104:11 109:5

109:17 110:10

112:2 114:6 115:6

115:20 117:12,14

121:4,21 130:4

131:13 137:14

139:6 140:21,21

140:21 142:3

143:7 149:22

150:15 151:7

152:1,12 153:16

179:16 186:19

198:13,18 199:1,2

216:7,8 222:14

230:8 234:15

235:7,9,16 239:16

240:9 243:6,9

245:21 248:8

260:16 264:3,6

278:15 281:5

292:3 300:21,21

308:8,9 326:4,17

337:8,16 338:19

339:5 341:19

344:5,6 347:1,18

351:4,19 356:6

357:15 363:8,22

364:7 365:20

367:18 369:12

371:9

knowing 52:6

94:14

knowledge 149:6

244:2

knows 25:1 58:21

69:4 364:6

kW 65:8 77:2,8

kWh 28:7

L

lab 170:6 324:22

label 72:9 333:10

labeled 275:16

labor 175:4 252:13

252:18

laboratory 2:2,5,9

8:22 9:2 10:3

169:17 174:14

282:21 364:7

Labs 22:4

lack 184:2 347:9

352:1

lacking 16:13

lag 293:3

lamp 156:19 157:1

Lane 1:19 9:22

language 56:15

large 24:7 29:17

30:5 51:20 55:14

116:4 143:8 150:1

243:18 246:20

275:6 298:9,22

324:20 325:14,17

327:2 362:17

larger 95:18 115:22

226:17 299:14

LASKI 196:7

197:14 300:6

lasts 22:17 263:10

266:10

late 201:9 230:4

laterá 126:20

latest 206:17

364:18

latitude 54:3,5 55:3

Lau 2:4 4:8 8:19,19

142:11,11 154:15

154:15 156:4,4

160:10,17,17

171:22 172:6,8

189:3 314:7,8,9

318:16 319:2,9,13

319:18,22 320:6

320:14 321:2,15

321:20 323:1,16

324:2,5 325:11

326:5,11,14,18

327:11 343:14,14

344:14 348:17

349:6,9

LAU:á 326:2

laughable 279:17

Laughter 5:21

47:20 51:7 54:17

71:15 73:1,4

90:20 93:21 97:6

112:7 131:20

142:22 169:10

170:5,18 256:5

291:6 365:1 373:1

Lawrence 2:1,4,8

8:21 9:2 10:3

174:13 282:21

lawyer 368:16
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layoffs 346:18

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281:16,19 294:18

296:2,3 302:18,19

336:13 340:3

lead 54:1,8,11

183:7

leap 199:7

learn 85:5

learned 354:14

learning 25:5

250:22

least-burdensome

123:14

least-efficient

107:22 111:21

leave 6:14 77:4

111:9 172:21

173:4

leaving 201:7

led 79:21

LEDs 356:15

left 6:17 66:6 90:7

174:4 219:4 224:1

285:17 287:11

291:17 293:6,8

297:16 349:21

left-hand 248:11

legislation 66:1

70:21 76:18

Lekov 2:4 4:6,10

4:14 8:21,21

282:19,20,21

290:4 291:11,16

292:15 293:12,19

297:4,8,10 298:12

301:17,22 304:15

305:8 307:9,18

309:14 312:17

313:12 328:16

329:12,19 332:20

333:22 334:7

335:2,4,13 336:8

340:2 341:14

342:15 353:18,22

lenders 279:20

length 255:1

lengthy 328:8

Lennox 6:20 48:3

105:10

lesser 151:11

let's 6:17 30:16

35:14 45:8 48:6

50:7 51:18 71:7

82:20 88:16 89:14

112:12 131:15,16

140:3 174:9

179:21,22 180:4

180:11 214:5

225:19 233:5

248:5,6 259:18

268:20 273:6

292:17 293:17

329:4 332:19

361:7 373:8

letter 44:13

level 15:14 25:22

43:14 74:14 133:2

133:14 134:2

135:7,10 137:18

137:20 138:8

164:6 166:4 185:5

209:16 211:16

241:20,21 247:6

268:3,4 272:10,12

273:6 274:1,6,6,7

274:7,19,19,21,22

277:13 278:2,11

278:14,16 281:12

282:9 299:9 300:1

302:10 307:19,20

308:11,14 309:17

312:21 333:9

345:20

levels 3:18 28:5,13

39:1 45:21 81:11

95:14 102:10

103:22 135:19

136:1,5 199:10

233:11 268:13

271:19 272:5

277:14 284:5,17

290:13 300:2

302:3 307:7

312:13 334:17,19

337:14 347:17,19

350:18

liable 255:12

lies 222:6

life 12:7 18:19

19:19 20:6 22:8

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urge 231:18

urgently 359:7

usage 134:9 234:13

235:11 334:18

use 4:1 11:22 26:11

27:4,9 28:11 63:5

80:10 81:14 83:2

83:19 87:11 92:17

96:17 99:11,12

103:6 122:7 125:4

128:4 133:10

146:18 165:14

174:5,15 200:4

201:19,21,22

202:5,16,18,20

203:3 205:15,17

205:19 207:15

209:3,7,9 211:7

212:1,8 216:15

224:8,14 225:13

225:20 227:19

228:1 230:16

233:13,13,14

237:16,17,22

239:14,19 240:3

247:2,3 250:12

253:15 270:22
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367:21

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240:1 339:1

user 189:10

uses 19:13 56:9

119:2 122:8

174:19

usual 295:18

usually 210:15

217:6,19 286:5

287:18 292:17

295:11

utilities 127:10

243:3 338:9,15

354:11 358:11

utility 8:5 21:20

118:21 119:14

271:3 334:8

335:11 338:6

359:12 360:6

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V

Vaidyanathan 1:16

8:6,7 33:18 34:8

34:11,15,20 35:10

35:17 146:1,2

171:9,10 367:8

368:11,14 369:8

370:1,7,13 371:2

372:8 373:2

valid 266:5 305:13

351:16

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validated 315:22

valuable 363:7

valuation 322:3

value 21:12 131:2

132:17,20 188:2

280:8 294:3,16

302:16 303:13

313:6,7,8 315:8

317:7 322:9,15

342:18

value-added

244:13

values 18:12 38:22

39:7 95:13 100:6

101:5 102:8,8

105:5 107:3 108:8

124:14 128:20

137:14 139:9,10

162:6 204:5

215:11 252:11

298:18,19 317:14

318:14 321:10

332:15,22 334:2

340:15,17

valve 158:15 159:5

variability 128:9

246:18

variable 154:9

223:19 232:22

358:19

variance 257:14

variation 212:22

348:8

variations 99:4

varies 226:22 232:8

271:18

variety 26:5 29:4

85:18 120:19

various 94:3 107:7

107:8,9 108:20

172:2 218:6

263:15 363:21

vary 189:17 257:4

257:9

vehicles 356:15

vendor 192:4

ventilation 56:7

93:8 208:6,10

VER 187:9,16

188:4,10,17

189:18 198:15

199:14 210:4,11

210:19 211:5,11

211:19 226:8

227:1 246:5,8,22

247:4,10 258:22

259:11,16,21

260:5 307:2,6

verify 282:9

VerShaw 2:18 3:12

7:10,10 23:8,8

32:6,7,9 33:4,8

34:3,13,18,21

35:3,6 44:19,19

45:5 72:21 73:8

79:16 81:22,22

82:4 92:4,4 93:18

94:12,22 95:19

99:8 102:13

106:10 109:16,16

112:2 115:6,7,11

116:11,17 117:12

119:20 125:11

134:5,5,21 153:16

162:5,9,17,21

163:3 198:15

199:14 210:5

226:8 258:22

VerShaw's 37:12

version 129:18,21

213:10 222:16

269:2 329:14,16

versus 67:2 69:8

75:14,18 83:10,12

116:13 180:16

216:15 223:2

224:1,4 232:4

233:15 237:18

266:2 289:17

292:6 311:14

325:17 341:5

343:12,17

Victor 2:1 4:2,4 9:1

174:6,8,13 189:8

212:7 248:22

267:8 281:4

286:18

viewpoint 363:20

viewpoints 363:12

views 37:22

visible 88:19

visit 57:10 141:9,10

visited 150:15

visualize 268:6

volume 96:19 143:8

168:2 184:3

241:22 324:16,17

volume-dependent

154:10

volumes 163:22

298:9,22 325:3

W

wages 289:16,18

Wagner 2:19 9:10

9:10 60:8,8 61:14

61:22 62:3,9,12

63:1,3,7,16

120:16,16,22

121:15,19 123:16

124:12 183:4,4,17

232:2,2,10,15

289:11 290:1,12

341:18

waist 88:19

wait 45:9 106:6

239:12

walk 88:20 245:7

wall 118:3

want 15:5 25:14,21

28:19 37:11 44:22

55:12,13 64:9,11

68:16 79:14 82:19

87:8 92:3 111:12

114:13,18 125:10

126:14 155:11

156:11 169:16

171:7,18 184:5

200:5,16 201:16

215:14 243:16

245:22 254:20

256:8 271:11

342:13 353:12

356:4 359:5 362:2

367:18 368:4

wanted 5:16 38:4

97:3 144:14 153:3

186:8 192:5 213:6

217:17 226:5

304:4 327:14

346:22 358:7

362:7

wanting 14:7

wants 10:20 104:19

340:19

warehouse 185:1

185:13

warehousing

184:12 186:1

190:3 201:12

warm 246:4

warranties 199:21

warranty 19:1,2,4

19:6

washers 161:14

Washington 1:12

5:7,17

wasn't 100:3

139:17 148:9

230:3 242:4 304:3

waste 169:16

watching 64:17

water 67:13 204:11

217:22 358:12

watt 82:14

watts 28:6 73:15,20

109:18 214:13,15

214:18,18 215:7

216:20 224:1,4,6

224:10 234:12,12

235:15 237:1,4,5

237:6 238:11,19

wave 27:18

way 20:2,3,3 21:6

22:14 24:5 29:1

29:12,13 55:19,20

67:1 74:11 99:16

99:21 100:4,21

102:18 103:3

105:1,1 111:1

116:15 120:1

121:20 124:16,17

130:14 131:12

145:2 153:10

157:8 179:20
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we're 28:5 32:5,13

45:18 58:16 81:2

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we've 112:4

weá 15:6

wear 88:18 98:3

weatherized 23:19

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286:7 351:15

web 14:8,10 15:1

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webcast 14:7

webinar 99:5

website 13:12

320:13 364:17

weeds 362:16,18

week 50:8,8 371:20

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Weibull 19:18

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weigh 184:17

weighed 164:22

weighs 185:3

weight 115:9,12,17

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weighted 43:10

113:3 236:2,4,9

weighting 116:15

welcome 3:3 5:9,16

10:12 14:7,8

156:14 321:3

welcomes 291:12

welcoming 5:12

well-explained

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well-understood

31:9

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went 17:10 89:11

89:11 102:10

106:14 109:7

128:10 151:21

161:5 173:18,19

200:7 234:8 238:4

248:18,18 292:19

weren't 29:6,9,14

205:2 310:7

Wes 361:7

West 64:12

wet 219:3

wheel 148:4

whichever 60:19

whine 131:11

Whirlpool 346:18

white 58:2

wholesaler 175:16

176:1,8 178:4

179:14 182:21

wide 129:16

wider 94:4 189:22

222:10

widths 92:15,16

94:3

Williams 2:21 9:18

9:18

willing 145:21

winner 342:9

winners 302:18

322:22

Winningham 2:20

6:19,19 48:2,3

82:8 105:9 150:17

181:13 182:5,9,12

182:18 263:13,19

264:2,6 320:17

345:17,20 346:2

350:12

wipe 130:15 327:9

wired 359:14

wiring 66:5 159:6

359:21 360:14,19

Wisconsin 206:19

208:4,9,13

wise 264:12

wish 11:1,6,7 13:20

14:21

wishes 10:20

wishlist 80:2

Withstanding 32:2

wonder 157:20

328:3 339:16

361:15

wondering 264:9

270:14

word 87:11 344:4

words 28:22 155:19

191:11 281:12

work 16:10 25:17

25:18 130:17

173:14 217:6,8,10

217:13 243:7,7

281:10 300:19

328:1 351:20,21

353:9 363:18

365:16

worked 26:3

127:22

workers 348:13

working 11:8 22:2

25:12 27:20 35:7

50:19 90:19

200:21 356:21

358:12 367:14

works 104:15

workshop 30:10

world 29:18 54:9

364:6

worried 326:22

373:6

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worse 19:22 20:3

worst 322:13

worth 80:7 196:12

302:5 311:21

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96:5 102:1 153:12

188:13 242:18

273:12 299:13

341:10 369:19

wound 80:8,21

wrap 128:12

write 303:21 363:2

write-up 126:12

writes 261:21

writing 160:4

357:19 367:20

369:13

written 79:7,8

91:17 105:22

123:8 124:19

147:19 153:8

170:11 289:21

321:17 332:3

wrong 57:13 66:12

94:9 355:17 359:4

X

X 96:19 299:19

X13 244:6,11 310:4

345:21

X13s 310:14

Xeroxed 248:16

Xing 2:22 9:14

Xu 2:22 9:14,14

Y

Y 108:13 112:17

132:4 135:3

yards 173:1

year 26:12 28:7

40:14 48:20

153:20 201:13

227:20 231:2

234:18 236:20

249:21 252:11

253:8,20 260:13

260:14 266:12,22

266:22 270:8

274:7 278:4

288:21 289:5

292:8,8 294:9

296:1 319:1,4,7

327:11 330:6

356:9 371:22

Year's 372:1

years 18:19 19:3,9

25:18 29:17 30:3

53:16 54:7,10

64:16 69:9 148:10

156:3 157:19

168:19 221:5,9,16

243:17 255:20

257:15 259:5,7,20

261:13 264:20

266:5,8,9,11,18

266:20 276:15,18

277:4 281:7 282:6

287:4 289:6,6

290:19 292:5,9,12

293:4 295:21,22

319:4 341:8,9

344:17

yell 19:6

yesterday 49:15

51:4 260:11

yield 28:17

yields 302:16

Z

zero 77:2,8 150:20

190:18 213:13

230:13 339:10

348:11

0

0 223:7

0.5 217:22 219:2

0.54 240:4,8

0.6 214:9

0.65 219:5,10,11

0.8 240:7

0.93 227:8

0.94 225:21

0.95 227:10

1

1 17:9 144:16 223:7

269:16 315:12

320:2

1,000 26:11

1.2 204:11 205:7,9

210:6,7,13

1.25 168:2 317:18

1.3 189:15 317:16
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1:15 173:19 174:2

1:45 12:11

10 19:3 26:14 69:9

101:11 105:3

125:18 162:13

200:8 201:6,12

297:1

10-K 178:2

10-percent 161:16

162:15

10-year 225:10

10,000 247:21

249:12 340:7

10:15 11:20

10:29 89:11

10:30 88:16

10:45 88:17 89:9

10:46 89:12

100 102:15 160:7

160:14 173:1

289:1

1000 1:12 236:17

101 183:19 193:11

196:4

1014 234:18

103 17:21

106 342:14

10th 266:21

11 227:18 229:21

230:13,16 231:13

231:17 259:5,7

11,000 247:18

11.03 277:6

11.7 274:8 278:4

119 237:19

12 3:6 144:16,16

329:18 330:7

12-year 254:7

265:2 278:21

12/24 366:3,12

369:1

12:05 172:18

12:06 173:18

1200 132:8,13,16

132:17 135:10,21

135:22 166:3,14

236:5,12,14

128 162:14

12866 313:15

12th 253:20

13 82:2,10 125:19

200:8 201:6,13

329:16

1300 204:4 236:14

236:15,19

1330 237:4

14 69:8 82:11 206:3

15 3:8 32:21 65:8

101:12 253:22

259:19 261:13

266:9,11

150,000 342:1

348:14

1590 164:14

15th 266:12

16 3:9,10 336:4

1600 213:13

17 73:10,12 86:5

174 4:1

18 18:13 43:6,9

1870 228:13,21

229:15 234:16

235:6 236:19

19 228:7 229:18

230:4

1940s 290:21

1957 164:14

1971 290:20

1972 286:7

1980 289:12 290:5

1992 261:22 262:14

262:17 265:3

1998 288:8

2

2 10:16 136:7

137:20 138:8

168:17 315:17

2-ton 350:2

2,000 132:9 135:11

135:22

2.16 240:7

2.332 306:15

2:00-ish 12:11

2:29 248:18

2:30 248:6

2:40 248:14

2:41 248:19

20 65:8 105:2

109:11 221:5

226:18,19 279:20

297:5,7 317:18

346:17

20-inches 129:15

20-percent 134:12

20-year-old 262:14

347:13

200 107:5

2000 210:7,13

236:5,6 259:19

2002 289:12 290:5

2003 228:7

2005 203:12 229:5

2005-2006 201:10

2006 69:15 346:17

2006-2007 125:18

201:10

2007 178:11 370:10

2009 203:13 206:14

209:20 224:22

225:11 229:12

252:13 286:21

2010 269:5 287:18

288:8

2011 268:22 276:7

286:15 287:20

2012 225:8 227:4

252:11,14 269:1

286:7 287:2 296:1

329:10 356:9

2013 1:9 5:6 32:11

33:22 34:1,17

169:14 179:1

270:13 370:12

2014 331:15

2015 69:16 81:9

330:9,17 331:20

2016 331:22

2017 331:22

2018 252:10 270:4

2019 249:21 252:10

283:7 294:1,9

295:22 298:1

331:12,18 332:1

348:14

2048 283:7 294:1

294:10 298:2

20th 266:22

21 3:11

21-inch 120:4

21.6 322:14

22 35:4 167:10

2200 107:7

23 3:12 293:3

317:17

23-year 261:8

293:11

23.6 266:7 267:1

24 3:14 120:6

317:17 337:10,10

337:17

248 4:3

24th 31:19 34:19

46:19 366:22

370:20 371:13,13

25 106:16 350:18

25-inches 129:16

252 322:4

26 18:19 164:11

26.68-year 261:2

26.7 264:20 266:5

268 237:19

27 204:3 275:5

28 299:10 332:4

282 4:6

29 113:6 278:17

2900 259:5

2nd 37:15 44:9

169:14

3

3 1:9 15:7 29:21

85:2,2 153:19,20

168:17 264:18

306:14,15 307:11

307:18,20 308:11

309:2 313:6

315:17

3-ton 96:17 129:18

132:19 222:20

3.1 318:9

3.18 188:13

3.2.6 264:18

3.3 228:14 236:9

30 3:15,16 29:17

101:9 109:15

113:13 157:19

198:7 221:9 254:1

265:1,5 278:6

289:6 322:21

30-year 196:18

273:1

30,000 253:16

259:3 260:6

261:12 263:18

265:9

300 210:17 222:6

300,000 292:20

346:15

301 348:21

301,000 348:11

349:1

31 234:8 370:11

314 4:8

31st 367:13 368:21

369:22 371:1,12

32 163:12 164:1

328 4:10

33 136:5 246:9

308:7 337:10,17

338:19

336 4:13

34 272:21 273:18

3413 240:1

35 73:11,13 144:8

146:22 270:8

297:22

350 214:21 222:8

362 4:17

373 4:20
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306:14,18 308:1

308:14,14 309:2

313:3,6 318:5

320:3 336:14

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345:20 346:2

4.5 29:17

4.56 313:4

4.576 306:16

4.58 313:3

4:05 328:9

4:57 373:10

40 102:15 110:13

144:8 161:5

221:16 269:19

400 214:19 217:22

40s 291:5

41 272:21

410-A 200:6

42 246:10 308:13

430 234:12

440 237:5

45 3:18 274:22

275:1,6,9 298:1

450 222:8

47 73:11 191:1

476 234:12 237:6

48 197:18

49 197:195 5 3:2,3 28:10 49:19

50:1 92:11 94:10

164:11 167:10

274:6,8,19,22

278:2,16 299:10

299:17 343:3,9,11

343:19 344:5

345:4,5,11 346:3

5-ton 96:16 130:4

134:11 350:1

5.29 276:15

5.4 274:7 341:7,8

5.7 108:21

5:32 51:4

50 246:11 255:4

263:1 273:16

308:15

50-50 269:16

50-percent 28:5,6

110:13

500 214:18 222:6

53 338:20

539 239:17,22

543 239:17

55 3:20

550 214:18

56 218:20

59 246:9 274:10 6 6 3:5 15:7 136:7

137:18

6-ton 92:16

60 269:19

60,000 255:16,21

257:6 261:18

63 57:20

64076 37:12

64079 49:5

64128 276:16

64130 343:1

66 262:9

67 73:19

7

7 15:21 29:22 235:3

247:8,10 302:16

313:9

7.5 253:22

70-80 156:2

700 43:18

72 299:10

75 289:4

750 324:9

8

8-D 252:17

8-H 207:5 228:3

8.2 69:7

8.5 341:9

80 13:5 144:8

226:18,19 311:18

800 107:6

804 234:17

81 298:5

82 73:19

820 236:20

830 37:18,21 38:20

41:7,12 44:5

98:18 99:12,14

88 112:4

890 234:17 236:6

8E-089 1:11 9

9:00 1:12

9:10 5:2

90 3:22 144:8

162:14 206:2

311:18

90s 291:4

91 110:2

94 226:6 240:1

95 73:19 225:15

97 289:5

98 350:19
NEAL R. GROSS

COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 

1323 RHODE ISLAND AVE., N.W. 

(202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005-3701 www.nealrgross.com 

C E R T I F I C A T E

This is to certify that the foregoing transcript 

In the matter of: 

Before: 

Date: 

Place: 

was duly recorded and accurately transcribed under 

my direction; further, that said transcript is a 

true and accurate record of the proceedings. 

 

 ----------------------- Court Reporter 

421

Residential Furnace Fans

US DOE

12-03-13

Washington, DC