APPENDIX 10C. PENETRATION OF EMERGING AND EXISTING

TECHNOLOGIES

TABLE O F CONTENTS

**10C.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................10C­1** 

**10C.2 PRICE**  **AND PERFORMANCE**  **OF EMERGING**  **AND EXISTING** 

**TECHNOLOGIES .......................................................................................................10C­1**

**1 0C.2.1**  **L ED............................................................................................................10C­1** 

**1 0C.2.2**  **C MH** 

**........................................ ..................................................................10C­3** 

**10C.2.3 R**  **­CFL ........................................................................................................1**  **0C­3**

LIST O F TABLES

**Table 1**  **0C.1 LED**  **Device and**  **Luminaire Performance**  **Projections.......................................10C­2**

**Table 10C.2**  **LED Device**  **and Driver**  **Cost Projections**  **..........................................................10C­2**

**Table 10C.3**  **LED Reflector**  **Lamp Cost**  **Projection................................................................10C­3**

**Table 10C.4**  **LED GSFL**  **Replacement Cost**  **Projection..........................................................10C­3**

**Table 10C.5**  **CFL Historical**  **Prices.........................................................................................10C­4**

**10C­i**APPENDIX 10C. PENETRATION OF EMERGING AND EXISTING

TECHNOLOGIES

10C.1 I NTRODUCTION

**In t**  **his appendix,**  **the U.S.**  **Department of**  **Energy (DOE)**  **presents the**  **assumptions and** 

**methodology used**  **to estimate**  **the penetration**  **of emerging**  **technologies and**  **existing**

**technologies in**  **the base**  **case shipments**  **projections for**  **IRL and**  **GSFL. For**  **both GSFL**  **and IRL,** 

**DOE analyzes**  **an existing**  **technologies scenario**  **which models**  **the penetration**  **of only**  **existing**

**technologies and**  **an emerging**  **technology scenario**  **which models**  **additional penetration**  **from**

**emerging technologies.**  **For the**  **GSFL existing**  **technology scenario,**  **DOE analyzes**  **only**

**fluorescent technologies**  **covered under**  **this rulemaking.**  **For the**  **IRL existing**  **technology**

**scenario, DOE**  **models the**  **penetration of**  **R­CFL as**  **R­CFL are**  **a mature**  **technology with**  **a**

**relatively stable**  **price and**  **efficacy points.**  **In both**  **the GSFL**  **and IRL**  **emerging technology** 

**scenario, DOE**  **separately considered**  **the potential**  **market penetration**  **of two**  **technologies: 1)** 

**light­emitting diodes**  **(LED) (into**  **the commercial,**  **residential, and**  **industrial sectors),**  **and 2)** 

**ceramic metal**  **halide (CMH)**  **(into the**  **commercial and**  **industrial sectors).** 

**In o**  **rder to**  **model the**  **penetration of**  **both emerging**  **and existing**  **technologies, DOE** 

**forecasted the**  **future performance**  **of both**  **LEDs and**  **CMH and**  **estimated historical**  **prices for**  **R**

**CFL. These**  **performance forecasts**  **allowed DOE**  **to calculate**  **the simple**  **payback period** 

**encountered by**  **consumers for**  **each technology**  **and thus**  **project the**  **market penetration**  **of these** 

**technologies for**  **each year**  **during the**  **shipments analysis.** 

10C.2 P RICE AND PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING AND EXISTING

TECHNOLOGIES

10C.2.1 L ED

**To estimate**  **t he**  **future efficacy**  **and lifetime**  **of LED**  **luminaires, DOE**  **used the**  **efficacy**

**projection from**  **DOE’s Solid**  **State Lighting**  **Multi­Year Program**  **Plan (SSL**  **MYPP). i**  **The SSL** 

**MYPP estimates**  **a luminaire**  **efficacy of**  **47 lm/W**  **in 2007**  **climbing to**  **64 lm/W**  **in 2008**  **and then** 

**stabilizing at**  **196 lm/W**  **in 2020.**  **This luminaire**  **projection takes**  **into account**  **improvements in** 

**performance of**  **LED devices**  **as well**  **as fixture,**  **thermal, and**  **driver efficiencies.**  **DOE used**  **the**

**commercial cool**  **white device**  **projection for**  **both the**  **commercial and**  **residential sector.**  **DOE**

**understands that**  **the residential**  **sector may**  **prefer a**  **warm white**  **luminaire. However,**  **as stated**  **in**

**the SSL**  **MYPP, manufacturers**  **are achieving**  **a warm**  **white luminaire**  **by using**  **a red**  **LED and** 

**cool­white LED**  **devices. Therefore,**  **DOE believes**  **this efficacy**  **projection is**  **appropriate for** 

**both the**  **residential and**  **commercial sectors.**  **The projection**  **in the**  **SSL MYPP**  **is shown**  **below in** 

**Table 10C.1.**  **DOE used**  **the lifetime**  **assumed in**  **the SSL**  **MYPP of**  **50,000 hours.** 

**10C­1**Table 10C.1 LED Device and Luminaire Performance Projections

**Device**

**Ef ficacy** 

**Commercial**

**Cool White** 

**(lm/W 25** 

**degrees C)**  **Fixture**

**Ef ficiency**  **Thermal**

**Ef ficiency**  **Driver**

**Ef ficiency**  **Resultant**

**L uminaire** 

**Efficiency Luminaire** 

**Ef ficacy** 

**Cool**

**White**

**(lm/W)**

**2007 8**  **4 7**  **7% 8**  **5% 8**  **5% 5**  **5% 4**  **7**

**2 008**  **1 08**  **7 9%**  **8 6%**  **8 6%**  **5 9%**  **6 4** 

**2 015**  **1 88**  **9 5%**  **9 5%**  **9 5%**  **8 5%**  **1 61** 

**2 020**  **2 28**  **9 5%**  **9 5%**  **9 5%**  **8 5%**  **1 96** 

**I n**  **o rder**  **to estimate**  **the future**  **price of**  **both the**  **LED reflector**  **lamp replacement**  **and the** 

**LED fluorescent**  **system replacement,**  **DOE estimated**  **the OEM**  **selling price**  **for the**  **components**

**of the**  **LED luminaire**  **and then**  **applied a**  **markup that**  **is consistent**  **with current**  **retail prices**  **for**

**these luminaires.**  **The LED**  **luminaire is**  **composed of**  **several parts:**  **the LED**  **device, driver,**  **heat**

**sink, and**  **other components.**  **To estimate**  **the OEM**  **selling price**  **for the**  **LED device,**  **DOE used** 

**the projection**  **of LED**  **device costs**  **from the**  **SSL MYPP.**  **By interviewing**  **an integrated**  **circuits**

**manufacturer, DOE**  **was able**  **to estimate**  **the cost**  **of the**  **LED driver.**  **DOE used**  **both the**  **LED**

**device and**  **driver cost**  **estimates for**  **the LED**  **luminaire replacing**  **GSFL systems**  **and IRL.**  **The**

**device price**  **and driver**  **costs are**  **displayed in**  **Table 10C.2.** 

Table 1 0C.2 LED Device and Driver Cost Projections

**Device P**  **rice from**  **OEM**

**($/klm) Driver**  **C ost**  **($/W)**

**2007 2**  **5 0**  **.42**

**2 008**  **1 8**  **0 .40** 

**2 015**  **2 0.28** 

**2 020**  **2 0.20** 

**To estimate**  **t he**  **cost of**  **other components**  **used in**  **a replacement**  **LED reflector**  **lamp,**

**DOE purchased**  **the LR6**  **6” recessed**  **down light**  **manufactured by**  **CREE LED**  **lighting as**  **this**

**luminaire exhibits**  **similar efficacies**  **shown in**  **Table 10C.1.**  **By analyzing**  **the components**  **used**

**in this**  **luminaire, DOE**  **estimated the**  **cost of**  **the heat**  **sink and**  **other smaller**  **components as**  **$11**

**in 2007.**  **DOE estimated**  **that these**  **components could**  **drop to**  **$4 in**  **2020. Using**  **current retail** 

**prices for**  **the LR6**  **6” recessed**  **down light,**  **DOE estimated**  **a 220%**  **markup from**  **OEM**

**manufacturer selling**  **price to**  **retail price.**  **The resulting**  **prices of**  **the LED**  **reflector lamp** 

**replacements for**  **each of**  **the baseline**  **reflector lamps**  **are shown**  **in Table**  **10C.3 below.** 

**10C­2**Table 10C.3 LED Reflector Lamp Cost Projection

**Heat S**  **ink**

**and Other** 

**Costs for** 

**IRL ($)**  **630**

**L umen** 

**LED­RL**

**Luminaire**

**Cost**

**Projection**

**($) 1050** 

**Lumen**

**LED­RL**

**Luminaire**

**Cost**

**Projection**

**($) 1310** 

**Lumen**

**LED­RL**

**Luminaire**

**Cost**

**Projection**

**($)**

**2007 11**  **1 00**  **1 51**  **1 82** 

**2 008**  **1 0**  **7 5**  **1 10**  **1 32** 

**2 015**  **7 20**  **2 4**  **2 6** 

**2 020**  **4 13**  **1 6**  **1 8** 

**To estimate**  **t he**  **cost of**  **the LED**  **replacement for**  **a GSFL**  **luminaire, DOE**  **found a** 

**commercially available**  **retrofit kit**  **that included**  **a LED**  **replacement for**  **a 4­foot**  **medium bipin** 

**system. DOE**  **used the**  **retrofit kit**  **as a**  **current baseline**  **from which**  **to project**  **future cost,** 

**efficacy and**  **price points.**  **Table 10C.4**  **presents the**  **cost projections**  **for the**  **LED GSFL** 

**replacement.**

Table 1 0C.4 LED GSFL Replacement Cost Projection

**6200 L**  **umen LED­GSFL** 

**Luminaire Cost** 

**Projection ($)** 

**2007 3**  **39**

**2 008**  **1 21** 

**2 015**  **6 3** 

**2 020**  **5 3** 

1 0C.2.2 C MH

**In o**  **rder to**  **estimate the**  **future performance**  **of ceramic**  **metal halide**  **lamps, DOE** 

**interviewed several**  **manufacturers. These**  **manufacturers believed**  **that the**  **integrated ballast** 

**CMH lamp**  **recently introduced**  **on the**  **market could**  **penetrate into**  **GSFL and**  **IRL shipments.** 

**Manufacturer interviews**  **also revealed**  **that the**  **efficacy of**  **this lamp**  **could increase**  **from 48.8** 

**lm/W in**  **2007 to**  **56.1 lm/W**  **in 2012.**  **After 2012,**  **the efficacy**  **of the**  **CMH lamp**  **would stabilize.** 

**Manufacturers did**  **not believe**  **that the**  **cost of**  **this lamp**  **would decrease**  **overtime given**  **the**

**increase in**  **efficacy. Therefore,**  **DOE estimated**  **the current**  **and future**  **cost of**  **the CMH**  **using a** 

**similar methodology**  **to that**  **described in**  **chapter 7.**  **For the**  **analysis, DOE**  **used a**  **cost of**  **$58**

**and a**  **lifetime of**  **15,000 hours**  **for the**  **CMH lamp.** 

10C.2.3 R -CFL

**To estimate**  **h istorical**  **and future**  **penetrations of**  **R­CFL into**  **both the**  **residential and** 

**commercial sectors,**  **DOE estimated**  **historical prices**  **of R­CFL.**  **As historical**  **prices of**  **R­CFL In** 

**10C­3 2005,**  **2006, and**  **2007, are**  **not publicly**  **available, DOE**  **used publicly**  **available information**  **on**

**historical prices**  **of a**  **CFL sold**  **in Wal­Mart**  **and estimated**  **a similar**  **reduction in**  **price for**  **R­CFL.**

Table 1 0C.5 CFL Historical Prices

**Year C**  **FL H**  **istorical**

**Price R­CFL** 

**H istorical**  **Price**

**PAR30 R­CFL**  **H istorical** 

**Price PAR38** 

**2005 3**  **.19 ii**  **11.45 13.90** 

**2 006**  **2 .50**  **iii 8.97**  **10.89**

**2 007**  **1 .65**  **iv 5.92**  **7.19**

**10C­4**REFERENCES

**i Multi­Year**  **Program Plan**  **FY’09 to**  **FY’14: Solid­State**  **Lighting Research**  **and Development** 

**. Washington,**  **D .C.:**  **U.S. Department**  **of Energy.** 

**www.netl.doe.gov/ssl/PDFs/SSLMYPP2008_web.pdf**

**.**

**ii Charles**  **Fishman. “How**  **many light**  **bulbs does**  **it take**  **to change**  **the world?**  **One. And**  **You’re**

**Looking At**  **It:”** Fast Company Magazine

**. September**  **2006. Last**  **Accessed: December**  **19,.2008**

**< http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/108/open_lightbulbs.html?page=0%2C2**  **>**

**iii “Wal­mart**  **in efficient**  **light bulb**  **sales push.”**  Hybrid Cars

**. November**  **2006. Last**  **Accessed**

**December 19,**  **2008.**

**< http://www.hybridcars.com/forums/wal­mart­efficient­light­bulb­sales­push.html**  **>**

**iv Associated**  **Press. “Wal­mart**  **sells 100**  **millionth compact**  **fluorescent bulb.”**  Fox News

**. October** 

**2007. Last**  **Accessed December**  **19, 2008** 

**<http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,298926,00.html>**

**10C­5**