P. 1 

# OAR Box 1865 Prepped byCharmelle Mathews



### Document

Number: 

# 120 ) IV-K-(I)- 1 Docket Number: 

# A-83-2 7

Printed 12/3/20083:22:18PM

Sheet 120of 198

# 83-27

1V-K- 0



## ENERG YAN D ENVIRONMENTA LANALYSIS , INC . 165 5 NORT

HFOR TMYE RDR ARLINGTO N ^P. 3

REGIONALPROJECTION S OF INDUSTRIALFUE LPRICE S

Prepare dfor : U.S . ENVIRONMENTALPROTECTION AGENC Y Offic e o f Ai rQualit y Planningan

dStandard s Researc hTriangl e Park , N C2771 1

Prepare dby : ENERGYANDENVIRONMENTALANALYSIS , INC . 165 5 Nort hFor t Mye rDrive , Suit e 60 0 Arlington , Virgini a2220 9

Augus t 14 , 198 6P. 4

Thes e fue l pric e projection s wer e furnishe dt oth e U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc y

b y Energy an dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc., Arlington , Virginia , infulfillmen t o f Contrac t Numbe r68-02-4202 .P. 5



### TABL E O F CONTENT S

FIGUR E 1 : FEDERAL REGION S O F TH E UNITE DSTATE S APPENDI XA : REGIONA L INDUSTRIAL OI L AN DGA S PRIC E

FORECAST S FORTH E LOWOI L PRIC E SCENARI O APPENDI XB : REGIONA L INDUSTRIAL OI L ANDGA S PRIC E

FORECAST S FORTH E HIGHOI L PRIC E SCENARI O APPENDI XC : REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL COAL PRIC E FORECAST SFIGUR E 1 

# Federa l Region s ofth eUnite d State s

REGIO N NAMES 1 . Ne wEnglan d 2 . Ne wYork/NewJerse y 3 . Middl eAtlanti c 4 . South Atlanti c 5 . Midwes

t 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 . 10 . Southwes

t Centra l Nort h Centra l Wes t Northwes tP. 7



### APPENDI XA REGIONALINDUSTRIALOI LANDGA S PRIC EFORECAST S FORTH ELO W OI LPRIC ESCENARI O (SUMMER1986 )P. 8



### LIS TO F TABLE S TABL E NO . TITL E A- l CRUD E OI L PRIC E FORECAS T A- 2 INDUSTRIAL 3.0 % SULFURRESIDUA L FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTION S A- 3 INDUSTRIAL 1.6 % SULFURRESIDUAL FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTION S A- 4 INDUSTRIAL 0.8 % SULFURRESIDUAL FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTION S A- 5 INDUSTRIAL 0.3 % SULFURRESIDUA L FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTION S A- 6 INDUSTRIAL DISTILLAT E FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTION S A- 7 INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GA S PRIC E PROJECTIONS : CARRIAG E MARKE T

ESTIMATE S ASSUMINGFLEXIBL E CARRIAG E MARKE T A- 8 INDUSTRIAL NATURA L GA S PRIC E PROJECTIONS : NON-CARRIAG E

MARKE TESTIMATE S ASSUMINGFLEXIBL E CARRIAG E MARKE T A- 9 INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GA S PRIC E PROJECTIONS : CARRIAG E MARKE T

ESTIMATE S ASSUMINGMARKE TRIGIDIT Y A-1 0 INDUSTRIAL NATURA L GA S PRIC E PROJECTIONS : NON-CARRIAG E

MARKE TESTIMATE S ASSUMINGMARKE TRIGIDIT YP. 9

TABL E A-l . CRUD E OI L PRIC E FORECAST *

Averag e Refine r Acquisitio n Cos t o f Crud e Oi l Yea r ; (198 5 $/bbl ) 198 5 (actual ) 26.7 6 198 8 13.3 4 199 0 14.4 7 199 5 20.0 8 200 0 24.6 1 200 5 30.7 9 'Energ yandEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc .P.1 0

TABL E A-2 . INDUSTRIAL 3.0 % SULFURRESIDUAL FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTIONS *

(198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n1985* * 198 8 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5 1 . Ne wEngland4.2 5 2.1 5 2.3 4 3.2 9 4.0 6 5.1 0 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y4.1 8 2.0 9 2.2 8 3.2 3 4.0 0 5.0 4 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 4.1 8 2.0 9 2.2 8 3.2 3 4.0 0 5.0 4 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 4.1 6 2.0 7 2.2 6 3.2 1 3.9 7 5.0 2 5 . Midwes t 4.3 3 2.2 4 2.4 3 3.3 8 4.1 4 5.1 9 6 . Southwes t 4.1 4 2.0 5 2.2 4 3.1 9 3.9 5 5.0 0 7 . Centra l 4.3 0 2.2 1 2.4 0 3.3 4 4.1 1 5.1 5 8 . Nort hCentra l 4.2 4 2.1 6 2.3 5 3.3 1 4.0 8 5.1 4 9 . Wes t 4.0 6 2.0 5 2.2 4 3.1 6 3.9 1 4.9 4 10 . Northwes t 4.0 1 2.0 1 2.1 9 3.1 2 3.8 7 4.8 9 *Energyan

dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc . **Estimate , no t actual .TABL E A-3 . INDUSTRIAL 1.6 % SULFURRESIDUAL FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTIONS *

(198 5 $/MMBtu ) p.1 1

Federa l regio n 1985* * 198 8 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5
1 . Ne wEngland 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y 4.4 6 2.3 3 2.5 2 3.4 8 4.2 6 5.3 2 4.4 0 2.2 7 2.4 6 3.4 3 4.2 1 5.2 6 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 4.4 0 2.2 7 2.4 6 3.4 3 4.2 1 5.2 6 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 4.3 7 2.2 5 2.4 4 3.4 1 4.1 8 5.2 4 5 . Midwes t 4.5 4 2.4 2 2.6 1 3.5 7 4.3 5 5.4 1 6 . Southwes t 7 . Centra l 8 . Nort hCentra l 4.3 5 2.2 3 2.4 2 3.3 8 4.1 6 5.2 2 4.5 1 2.3 9 2.5 7 3.5 3 4.3 2 5.3 7 4.4 6 2.3 3 2.5 2 3.4 9 4.2 8 5.3 5 9 . Wes t 4.2 8 2.2 2 2.4 1 3.3 4 4.1 1 5.1 5 10 . Northwes t 4.2 4 2.1 8 2.1 4 3.3 0 4.0 7 5.1 1 *Energyan

dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc . **Estimate , no t actual .P.1 2

TABL E A-4 . INDUSTRIAL 0.8 % SULFURRESIDUAL FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTIONS *

(198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n1985* * 198 8 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5 1 . Ne wEngland4.8 0 2.5 6 2.7 6 3.7 7 4.5 9 5.7 0 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y4.7 4 2.4 9 2.7 0 3.7 1 4.5 2 5.6 4 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 4.7 4 2.4 9 2.7 0 3.7 1 4.5 2 5.6 4 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 4.7 2 2.4 7 2.6 8 3.6 9 4.5 0 5.6 1 5 . Midwes t 4.8 9 2.6 4 2.8 5 3.8 6 4.6 7 5.7 8 6 . Southwes t 4.7 0 2.4 5 2.6 6 3.6 7 4.4 8 5.6 0 7 . Centra l 4.8 6 2.6 1 2.8 1 3.8 2 4.6 4 5.7 5 8 . Nort hCentra l 4.8 0 2.5 3 2.7 3 3.7 3 4.5 5 5.6 6 9 . Wes t 4.6 4 2.4 3 2.6 3 3.6 1 4.4 0 5.4 9 10 . Northwes t 4.6 0 2.3 9 2.5 8 3.5 7 4.3 6 5.4 5 *Energyan

dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc . **Estimate , no t actual .P.1 3

TABL E A-5 . INDUSTRIAL 0.3 % SULFURRESIDUAL FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTIONS *

(198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n1985* * 198 8 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5 1 . Ne wEngland5.0 4 2.6 8 2.8 8 3.9 2 4.7 5 5.8 9 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y4.9 8 2.6 1 2.8 2 3.8 6 4.6 9 5.8 3 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 4.9 8 2.6 1 2.8 2 3.8 6 4.6 9 5.8 3 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 4.9 5 2.5 9 2.8 0 3.8 3 4.6 7 5.8 1 5 . Midwes t 5.1 3 2.7 6 2.9 7 4.0 1 4.8 4 5.9 8 6 . Southwes t 4.9 3 2.5 7 2.7 8 3.8 1 4.6 5 5.7 9 7 . Centra l 5.0 9 2.7 3 2.9 3 3.9 7 4.8 1 5.9 4 8 . Nort hCentra l 5.0 6 2.6 4 2.8 5 3.8 9 4.7 2 5.8 5 9 . Wes t 4.8 8 2.5 3 2.7 4 3.7 4 4.5 5 5.6 5 10 . Northwes t 4.8 4 2.4 9 2.6 9 3.7 0 4.5 1 5.6 1 *Energyan

dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc . **Estimate , no t actual .P. M

TABL E A-6 . INDUSTRIAL DISTILLAT E FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTIONS *

(198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n 1985* * 198 8 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5 1 . Ne wEngland 6.1 7 3.1 6 3.3 8 4.6 1 5.6 0 6.9 6 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y6.1 5 3.1 3 3.3 6 4.5 9 5.5 8 6.9 4 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 6.1 5 3.1 3 3.3 6 4.5 9 5.5 8 6.9 4 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 6.0 3 3.0 5 3.2 7 4.4 9 5.4 7 6.8 0 5 . Midwes t 6 . Southwes t 5.9 8 3.0 2 3.2 4 4.4 5 5.4 2 6.7 5 5.8 5 2.8 9 3.1 1 4.3 2 5.3 0 6.6 3 7 . Centra l 5.9 8 3.0 2 3.2 4 4.4 4 5.4 2 6.7 5 8 . Nort hCentra l 5.6 5 2.8 2 3.0 1 4.2 1 5.1 9 6.4 2 9 . Wes t 5.4 6 2.7 2 2.9 1 4.1 6 5.0 1 6.2 1 10 . Northwes t 5.3 9 2.7 2 2.9 1 4.1 0 4.9 4 6.1 3 *Energyan

dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc . **Estimate , no t actual .P.1 5

TABL E A-7 . INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GA S PRIC E PROJECTIONS : CARRIAG E MARKE T ESTIMATE S ASSUMINGFLEXIBL E CARRIAG E MARKET *

(198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n 198 8 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5 1 . Ne wEngland 2.4 1 2.6 0 3.6 2 4.3 7 5.4 5 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y 2.4 9 2.7 0 3.7 1 4.5 2 5.6 4 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 2.3 4 2.5 4 3.6 2 4.3 3 5.3 9 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 2.1 7 2.5 1 3.6 2 4.3 3 5.3 6 5 . Midwes t 2.4 9 2.6 9 3.6 7 4.4 6 5.5 4 6 . Southwes t 2.1 5 2.3 4 3.3 4 4.1 4 5.1 6 7 . Centra l 2.3 1 2.5 1 3.6 2 4.3 3 5.3 6 8 . Nort hCentra l 9 . Wes t 2.3 8 2.6 0 3.6 2 4.3 8 5.4 6 2.4 3 2.6 3 3.6 2 4.4 0 5.4 9 10 . Northwes t 2.2 1 2.5 1 3.6 2 4.3 3 5.3 6 EnergyandEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc .P.1 6

TABL E A-8 . INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GA S PRIC E PROJECTIONS : NON-CARRIAG E MARKE T ESTIMATE S

ASSUMINGFLEXIBL E CARRIAG E MARKET *

(198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n198 8 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5 1 . Ne wEngland3.2 3 3.6 3 4.5 8 5.3 9 6.4 2 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y3.7 0 3.9 1 4.4 9 5.3 0 6.3 2 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 3.0 4 3.3 2 4.4 7 5.2 8 6.3 0 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 3.0 5 3.2 9 4.5 9 5.4 6 6.5 5 5 . Midwes t 2.9 8 3.2 6 4.4 1 5.2 3 6.2 7 6 . Southwest* * 2.1 5 2.3 4 3.3 4 4.1 4 5.1 6 7 . Centra l 2.7 1 2.9 6 4.2 3 5.0 1 5.9 9 8 . Nort hCentra l 2.5 3 2.7 3 3.6 3 4.3 2 5.2 1 9 . Wes t 2.6 2 3.0 0 4.1 1 4.8 9 5.8 8 10 . Northwes t 2.4 2 2.7 5 3.9 0 4.7 4 5.8 2 Energyan

dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc . * * Equivalen t t o carriag e rat e fo r intrastat e markets .P.1 7

TABL E A-9 . INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GA S PRIC E PROJECTIONS : CARRIAG E MARKE T ESTIMATE S

ASSUMINGMARKE T RIGIDITY * (198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n198 8 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5 1 . Ne wEngland2.4 1 2.7 8 3.8 9 4.7 0 5.8 7 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y2.4 9 2.7 4 3.8 4 4.6 5 5.8 1 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 2.3 4 2.7 3 3.8 1 4.6 3 5.7 9 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 2.1 8 2.6 7 3.7 8 4.5 9 5.7 6 5 . Midwes t 2.4 9 2.7 3 3.7 7 4.5 8 5.7 5 6 . Southwes t 2.1 5 2.3 4 3.4 6 4.1 9 5.3 6 7 . Centra l 2.3 1 2.6 1 3.6 9 4.5 1 5.6 7 8 . Nort hCentra l 2.3 8 2.6 1 3.6 0 4.4 1 5.5 7 9 . Wes t 2.4 3 2.6 3 3.6 2 4.4 3 5.6 0 10 . Northwes t 2.2 1 2.5 0 3.5 4 4.3 5 5.5 1 Energyan

dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc .P.18 .

TABL E A-10 . INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GA S PROJECTIONS : NON-CARRIAG E MARKE T ESTIMATE S

ASSUMINGMARKE T RIGIDITY * (198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n198 8 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5 1 . Ne wEngland3.2 3 3.7 5 4.7 6 5.5 0 6.6 7 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y3.2 0 3.6 9 4.5 5 5.2 8 6.4 4 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 3.0 4 3.3 0 4.5 3 5.2 7 6.4 3 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 3.0 5 3.2 7 4.5 9 5.3 7 6.6 1 5 . Midwes t 2.9 8 3.2 3 4.4 2 5.1 6 6.3 4 6 . Southwest* * 2.1 5 2.3 4 3.4 6 4.1 9 5.6 7 7 . Centra l 2.7 1 2.9 3 4.2 1 4.9 0 6.0 2 8 . Nort hCentra l 2.5 3 2.7 3 3.6 3 4.2 6 5.2 6 9 . Wes t 2.6 0 2.8 7 3.9 7 4.6 6 5.7 7 10 . Northwes t 2.4 2 2.6 7 3.9 5 4.7 0 5.9 1

* Energyan

dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc . * * Equivalen t t o carriag e rat e fo r intrastat e markets .P.1 9



### APPENDI XB REGIONALINDUSTRIALOI LANDGA S PRIC EFORECAST S FORTH EHIGH OI LPRIC ESCENARI O (SUMMER1986 )P.2 0

LIS T OFTABLE S TABL ENO . TITL E B- 1 CRUD EOI LPRIC EFORECAS T B- 2 INDUSTRIAL3.0 % SULFURRESIDUALFUELOI LPRIC EPROJECTION S B- 3 INDUSTRIAL1.6 % SULFURRESIDUALFUE LOI LPRIC EPROJECTION S B- 4 INDUSTRIAL0.8 % SULFURRESIDUALFUELOI LPRIC EPROJECTION S B- 5 INDUSTRIAL0.3 % SULFURRESIDUALFUELOI LPRIC EPROJECTION S B- 6 INDUSTRIALDISTILLAT EFUE LOI LPRIC EPROJECTION S B- 7 INDUSTRIALNATURALGA S PRIC EPROJECTIONS : CARRIAG EMARKE T

ESTIMATE S B- 8 INDUSTRIALNATURALGA S PRIC EPROJECTIONS : NON-CARRIAG E

MARKE T ESTIMATE SP.2 1

TABL E B-1 . CRUD E OI L PRIC E FORECAST *

Averag e Refine r Acquisitio n Cos t o f Crud e Oi l Yea r (198 5 $/bbl ) 198 5 (actual ) 26.7 6 198 7 20.1 3 199 0 23.8 7 199 5 27.0 2 200 0 30.6 1 200 5 37.4 2 *EnergyandEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc .P.2 2

TABL E B-2 . INDUSTRIAL 3.0 % SULFURRESIDUAL FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTIONS *

(198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n1985* * 198 7 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5
1 . Ne wEngland4.2 5 3.3 0 3.9 3 4.4 6 5.0 7 6.2 2 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y4.1 8 3.2 4 3.8 7 4.4 0 5.0 1 6.1 6 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 4.1 8 3.2 4 3.8 7 4.4 0 5.0 1 6.1 6 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 4.1 6 3.2 2 3.8 5 4.3 8 4.9 9 6.1 4 5 . -Midwes t 4.3 3 3.3 9 4.0 2 4.5 5 5.1 6 6.3 1 6 . Southwes t 4.1 4 3.2 0 3.8 3 4.3 6 4.9 7 6.1 2 7 . Centra l 4.3 0 3.3 5 3.9 9 4.5 2 5.1 2 6.2 7 8 . Nort hCentra l 4.2 4 3.3 2 3.9 6 4.5 0 5.1 1 6.2 7 9 . Wes t 4.0 6 3.1 7 3.7 9 4.3 1 4.9 1 6.0 3 10 . Northwes t 4.0 1 3.1 3 3.7 5 4.2 7 4.8 6 5.9 8 *Energyan

dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc . **Estimate , no t actual .TABL E B-3 . INDUSTRIAL 1.6 % SULFURRESIDUAL FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTIONS *

(198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n 1985* * 198 7 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5
1 . Ne wEngland 4.4 6 3.5 0 4.1 4 4.6 7 5.2 9 6.4 7 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y4.4 0 3.4 4 4.0 8 4.6 1 5.2 3 6.4 1 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 4.4 0 3.4 4 4.0 8 4.6 1 5.2 3 6.4 1 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 4.3 7 3.4 2 4.0 6 4.5 9 5.2 1 6.3 9 5 . Midwes t 4.5 4 3.5 9 4.2 3 4.7 6 5.3 8 6.5 6 6 . Southwes t 4.3 5 3.4 0 4.0 4 4.5 7 5.1 9 6.3 7 7 . Centra l 4.5 1 3.5 5 4.2 0 4.7 3 5.3 4 6.5 2 8 . Nort hCentra l 4.4 6 3.5 2 4.1 7 4.7 1 5.3 3 6.5 2 9 . Wes t 4.2 8 3.3 7 4.0 0 4.5 2 5.1 3 6.2 8 10 . Northwes t 4.2 4 3.3 3 3.9 6 4.4 7 5.0 8 6.2 4 *Energyan

dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc . **Estimate , no t actual .TABL E B-4 . INDUSTRIAL 0.8 % SULFURRESIDUAL FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTIONS *

(198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n 1985* * 198 7 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5
1 . Ne wEngland 4.8 0 3.7 8 4.4 5 5.0 2 5.6 7 6.9 8 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y4.7 4 3.7 2 4.3 9 4.9 6 5.6 0 6.8 3 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 4.7 4 3.7 2 4.3 9 4.9 6 5.6 0 6.8 3 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 4.7 2 3.7 0 4.3 7 4.9 3 5.5 8 6.8 1 5 . Midwes t 4.8 9 3.8 7 4.5 4 5.1 0 5.7 5 6.9 8 6 . Southwes t 4.7 0 3.6 8 4.3 5 4.9 2 5.5 6 6.7 9 7 . Centra l 4.8 6 3.8 3 4.5 1 5.0 7 5.7 2 6.9 4 8 . Nort hCentra l 4.8 0 3.7 4 4.4 1 4.9 8 5.6 3 6.8 5 9 . Wes t 4.6 4 3.6 2 4.2 7 4.8 3 5.4 6 6.6 5 10 . Northwes t 4.6 0 3.5 8 4.2 3 4.7 8 5.4 1 6.6 1 *Energyan

dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc . **Estimate , no t actual .P.2 5

TABL E B-5 . INDUSTRIAL 0.3 % SULFURRESIDUAL FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTIONS *

(198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n1985* * 198 7 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5
1 . Ne wEngland5.0 4 3.9 3 4.6 2 5.2 0 5.8 6 7.1 2 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y4.9 8 3.8 7 4.5 5 5.1 4 5.8 0 7.0 5 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 4.9 8 3.8 7 4.5 5 5.1 4 5.8 0 7.0 5 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 4.9 5 3.8 4 4.5 3 5.1 1 5.7 7 7.0 3 5 . Midwes t 5.1 3 4.0 2 4.7 0 5.2 8 5.9 5 7.2 0 6 . Southwes t 4.9 3 3.8 2 4.5 1 5.0 9 5.7 5 7.0 1 7 . Centra l 5.0 9 3.9 8 4.6 7 5.2 5 5.9 1 7.1 7 8 . Nort hCentra l 5.0 6 3.9 0 4.5 8 5.1 6 5.8 3 7.0 8 9 . Wes t 4.8 8 3.7 5 4.4 2 4.9 8 5.6 3 6.8 4 10 . Northwes t 4.8 4 3.7 1 4.3 7 4.9 4 5.5 8 6.8 0 *EnergyandEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc . **Estimate , no t actual .TABL E B-6 . INDUSTRIAL DISTILLAT E FUE L OI L PRIC E PROJECTIONS * (198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n 1985* * 198 7 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5
1 . Ne wEngland 6.1 7 4.6 6 5.4 4 6.1 3 6.9 2 8.4 1 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y6.1 5 4.6 3 5.4 2 6.1 1 6.9 0 8.3 9 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 6.1 5 4.6 3 5.4 2 6.1 1 6.9 0 8.3 9 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 6.0 3 4.5 3 5.3 1 5.9 9 6.7 6 8.2 4 5 . Midwes t 5.9 8 4.4 9 5.2 6 5.9 4 6.7 1 8.1 8 6 . Southwes t 5.8 5 4.3 7 5.1 4 5.8 1 6.5 9 8.0 5 7 . Centra l 5.9 8 4.4 9 5.2 6 5.9 4 6.7 1 8.1 8 8 . Nort hCentra l 5.6 5 4.1 6 4.9 3 5.6 1 6.3 8 7.8 5 9 . Wes t 5.4 6 4.0 1 4.7 6 5.4 2 6.1 7 7.6 0 10 . Northwes t 5.3 9 3.9 4 4.6 9 5.3 5 6.1 0 7.5 2 *Energyan

dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc . **Estimate , no t actual .P.2 7

TABL E B-7 . INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GA S PRIC E PROJECTIONS : CARRIAG E MARKE T ESTIMATES "

(198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n 198 7 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5 1 . Ne wEngland 3.5 9 4.2 5 4.7 9 5.4 2 6.6 1 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y 3.7 2 4.3 9 4.9 6 5.6 0 6.6 8 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 3.2 7 4.1 8 4.7 4 5.3 6 6.5 4 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 2.9 5 3.9 5 4.6 8 5.3 0 6.4 4 5 . Midwes t 6 . Southwes t 3.0 9 4.3 0 4.8 8 5.5 1 6.6 9 2.2 8 3.4 4 4.4 3 5.0 6 6.2 2 7 . Centra l 2.8 4 4.0 3 4.6 3 5.2 5 6.3 9 8 . Nort hCentra l 2.5 3 3.7 8 4.8 0 5.4 3 6.6 3 9 . Wes t 2.8 9 4.1 8 4.8 3 5.4 6 6.6 5 10 . Northwes t 2.3 3 3.5 8 4.5 7 5.1 9 6.3 5 Energyan

dEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc .P.2 8

TABL E B-8 . INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GA S PRIC E PROJECTIONS : NON-CARRIAG E MARKE T ESTIMATES '

(198 5 $/MMBtu )

Federa l regio n 198 7 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5 1 . Ne wEngland 3.7 8 5.2 9 6.5 2 7.1 0 8.1 8 2 . Ne wYork/Ne wJerse y 3.8 7 5.1 1 6.3 2 6.9 1 7.9 9 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 3.7 1 4.6 1 5.9 1 6.5 0 7.6 0 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 3.3 2 4.4 1 5.8 1 6.4 5 7.6 3 5 . Midwes t 3.5 1 4.4 3 5.7 4 6.3 4 7.4 5 6 . Southwes t * 2.2 8 3.4 4 4.4 3 5.0 6 6.2 2 7 . Centra l 3.1 7 3.9 8 5.2 1 5.7 8 6.8 4 8 . Nort hCentra l 2.7 7 3.4 1 4.3 9 4.9 1 5.8 7 9 . Wes t 3.1 7 4.0 1 5.1 4 5.7 1 6.7 7 10 . Northwes t 2.8 7 3.5 9 4.8 3 5.4 6 6.6 4 EnergyandEnvironmenta l Analysis , Inc . k * Equivalen t t o carriag e rat e fo r intrastat e market .P.2 9

APPENDI XC REGIONALINDUSTRIALCOALPRIC EFORECAST S
Source : Memorandu

m fro m Ebert , C . (ICFIncorporated ) t oShelby , M . (EPA) . Jul y

31 , 1986 . New

Coa l Price s forIndustria l NSP S Analyse so o C J L U a. o

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### DELIVERE DINDUSTRIAL COAL PRIC E FORECAST *

(198 5 $/MMBtu ) (Continued )

Federal regio

n 8 . North Centra l

9 . Wes t

• 10 . Northwes t Coal typ e Bituminous Subbituminous
Bituminous Subbituminous
Bituminous Sulfu

r content (l bS0 2 /MMBtu )

1.0 8 1.6 7 1.0 8 1.6 7
1.0 8 1.6 7 1.0 8 1.6 7
1.0 8 1.6 7 Subbituminous 1.0 8

1.6 7 <1.0 8

- 1.6 7

- 2.5 0 <1.0 8

- 1.6 7

- 2.5 0 <1.0 8

- 1.6 7 -2.5 0 <1.0 8

- 1.6 7

- 2.5 0 <1.0 8

- 1.6 7 -2.5 0 <1.0 8

- 1.6 7

- 2.5 0 198 5

1.7 7 1.7 7 1.8 1 1.3 1 1.2 9 1.2 9 2.4 8 2.4 1 2.4 7 2.4 9 2.5 0 2.4 6 2.5 4 2.5 2 2.5 3 2.3 0 2.2 6 1.7 2 199 0
1.8 6 1.8 5 1.8 5 1.3 3 1.3 1 1.3 3 2.6 4 2.6 0 2.6 0 2.5 0 2.5 5 2.4 8 2.6 7 2.6 6 2.6 0 2.3 9 2.3 1 1.7 5 199 5
1.9 6 1.9 3 1.9 5 1.4 1 1.3 4 1.3 8 2.6 6 2.5 7 2.5 7 2.6 1 2.6 0 2.5 1 2.8 2 2.7 3 2.6 3 2.4 2 2.3 4 1.9 4 200 0
2.0 4 2.0 0 2.0 0 1.4 8 1.4 2 1.4 0 2.7 8 2.6 9 2.6 9 2.6 5 2.5 4 2.5 1 2.8 7 2.7 9 2.6 5 2.5 1 2.4 5 2.0 5 

### *IC F Incorporated .