1 Meggitt Combustion Heaters

-- Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis Daniel Leach 22Feb2016
Introduction and Purpose of This Analysis
The Regulatory Flexibility Act of 1980 (Public Law 96

- 354) (RFA) establishes “as a principle of regulatory issuance that agencies shall endeavor, consistent with the objectives of the rule and of applicable statutes, to fit regulatory and informational requirements to the scale of the businesses, organizations, and governmental jurisd ictions subject to regulation. ” To achie ve this principle, the RFA requires agencies to solicit and consider flexible regulatory proposals and to explain the rationale for their actions to assure that such proposals are seriously considered .” The
RFA covers a wide

- range of small entities, includ ing small businesses, not

- for

- profit organizations, and small governmental jurisdictions. Agencies must perform a review to determine whether a rule will have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities. If the agency determine s that it will, the agency must prepare an initial regulatory flexibility analysis (IRFA) as described in the RFA. The FAA finds that the proposed AD would have a significant economic impact on a substantial
number of small entities. Accordingly, in the fo llowing sections we discuss the compliance requirements of the proposed AD, the cost of compliance, and the economic impact on small
entities. Section 603(a) of the RFA requires that each initial regulatory flexibility analysis contain: (1) a description of t he reasons action by the agency is being considered; (2) a succinct statement of the objectives of, and legal basis for, the proposed rule; (3) a description of and, where feasible, an estimate of the number of small entities to which the proposed rule will apply; (4) a description of the projected reporting, recordkeeping and other compliance requirements of the proposed rule, including an estimate of the classes of small entities which will be subject to the requirement and the type of professional skills necessary f or preparation of the report or record; and (5) to the extent practicable, an identification of all relevant Federal rules which may duplicate, overlap or conflict with the proposed rule.2 (6) Each IRF A shall also contain a description of any significant alternativ es to the proposed rule which accomplish the stated objectives of applicable statues and which minimize any significant economic impact of the proposed rule on small entities.

1. Objectives of, and Legal Basis for, the Proposed Rule

Title 49 of the U.S. Cod e specifies the FAA’s authority to issue rules on aviation safety. Subtitle I, section 106, describes the authority of the FAA Administrator. Subtitle VII, Aviation Programs, describes in more detail the scope of the FAA’s authority. We are issuing this ru lemaking under the authority described in subtitle VII, part A, subpart III, section 44701, “General requirements.” Under that section, Congress charges the FAA with promoting safe flight of civil aircraft in air commerce by prescribing regulations for pr actices, methods, and procedures the Administrator finds necessary for safety in air commerce. This regulation is within the scope of that authority because it addresses an unsafe condition that is likely to exist or develop on the airplanes identified in this proposed Airworthiness Directive (AD) (79 FR 49249, August 20, 2014).

2. A Description of the Reasons Action by the Agency Is Being Considered
This proposed AD stems from the crash of a Cessna 401 near Chanute, Kansas, on May 11, 2012, killing the pilo t and three of the four passengers aboard, and seriously injuring the fourth

passenger

. According to the NTSB report, the crash occurred after dark smoke emanated from
the cabin heater and entered the cabin obscur ing the occupants’ vision. According to the R eport: “The smoke likely interfered with the pilot’s ability to identify a safe landing site.” When the pilot attempted an emergency landing in a field, the airplane’s wing contacted the ground and the airplane cartwheeled.
The NTSB determined the proba ble cause of the accident to be the malfunction of the cabin heater, which resulted in an inflight fire and smoke in the airplane. Contributing to the accident was the pilot’s lack of unde rstanding concerning the status of the airplane’s heater system foll owing an earlier over heat event and the risk of it s continued use. Also contribut ing were the inadequate inspection criter i a f or the ca bin heater. 1

.

1 www.ntsb.gov , “Aviation Accident Database”, “Monthly Lists”, “2012 May”, “Friday, May 11, 2012”, “Probable

c ause (09/05/2013 ) ”. The NTSB Accident Identifier is CEN12FA290

.3 As result of this accident , the FAA is proposing this AD to detect and correct a hazardous
condition caus ed by deterioration of the combustion heater, a condition that could lead to ignition of heater components and result in smoke and fumes in the airplane cabin.

3. A Description of and an Estimate of the Number of Small Entities to which the Proposed Rule Wil l Apply
The proposed AD would supersede AD 81

- 09

- 09 , which applie s to 8000 series Meggitt
combustion heaters installed on certain twin

- engine piston airplanes, primarily Cessna 300 and 400 series airplanes , but also installed on the Beech D18S twin

- engine airplane and some Britten
Norman twin

- engine piston airplanes

. The proposed AD would extend applicability to 900 series Meggitt combustion heaters installed on certain Cessna single

- engine piston airplanes, Cessna
310 twin

- engine airplane s , Lake LA

- 4 and LA

- 250 airplane s , certain Ryan Navion single

- engine piston airplanes and certain Piper PA

- 23 and PA

- 30 airplanes

. The FAA airplane registry
indicates that there are 4121 airplanes of the models equipped with 8000 series Meggitt
combustion heaters 2

, and 212 3 airplanes of the models equipped with 900 series Meggitt
combustion heaters. 3 Since many of these airplanes are registered to Limited Liability Companies ( LLC s ), Limited Liability Partnerships (LLPs) and other company forms typically suited for single pr oprietors, small partnerships, etc. , we conclude that the proposed rule would
affect a substantial number of small entities.

4. Duplicative, Overlapping or Conflicting Federal Rules
The FAA is unaware of any Federal rules that duplicate, overlap, or conf lict with this proposed rule.

5

. Significant Alternatives to the Proposed Rule
Because of an unsafe condition that is likely to exist or develop on the airplanes identified in this proposed AD, there is no feasible significant alternative to requiring th e actions of this proposed AD. The FAA invites public comment on this determination. The FAA considered allowing more flight hours or calendar time before requiring compliance, but this alternative would increase the risk of another fatal accident. The pro posed

2 Files downloaded to FAA Registry 30

- 1

- 2015.

3 Files downloaded to FAA Registry 23

- 1 0

- 2015.4 rule allows the combustion heater to be disconnected or removed, but, operating without a heater is unlikely to be viable.

6

. Reporting, Record Keeping, and Other Compliance Requirements of the Proposed Rule

Small entities would incur no new reporti ng and record

- keeping require ments as a result of
this rule.

Compliance requirements
The proposed rule would carry over the following requirements from the existing AD 81

- 09

- 09 :

• Conduction of the 250

- hour heater inspection every 250 hours of heater operati on, 4 in
accordance with the manufacturer’s service manual. We estimate the labor cost of this action to be 2 hours x $85 = $170.

• General inspection of the heater installation at the same time as the 250

- hour inspection

. We estimate the labor cost of this a ction to also be 2 hours x $85 = $170. Since the proposed rule would extend applicability to 900 series heaters Meggitt combustion
heaters , which are installed on certain airplanes , there is an incremental cost associated with the existing requirement for these two inspections. There is no incremental cost associated with applicability to 8000 series heaters , installed on certain airplanes, as the current rule already applies to these heaters

. The proposed AD would add the following new provisions , which w ill apply to both 900 and 8000 series heaters installed on certain airplanes:

• During each 250

- hour inspection more detailed actions would be required, namely inspection of the thermostat and upper limit switches , and inspection of the solenoid
valve and fu el pump.

o In conju n ction with the 250

- hour and installation inspections already required, the
labor cost of these more detailed actions would be one hour of labor at $85. “On

condition” costs to replace the temperature switches would be an additional hour o f labor ($85) and $320 in materials cost, for a total of $405. On

- condition costs to repair/overhaul the pump would be an additional two hours of labor ($170) and $470

4 More precisely, all requirement interval s are “250 hours of combustion heater operation or two years, whichever occurs first.”5 in materials cost for a total of $640

.

• Operators would be required to replace d efective combustion tubes with new t ubes as

r epair of combustion tubes would be prohibited. We estimate the cost of prohibiting repair of combustion tubes to be minimal as industry reports that the Meggitt heater
combustion tubes are effectively non
- repairable.

• At the same time as the 250

- hour and installation inspection , a combustion heater pressure decay test (PDT) would be required.

o The PDT would cost $170. If the combustion heate r fails the PDT, the operator would be required to replace the combustion tube at an installed cost of $4, 580

.

• Operators have the options of disabling the heater at an estimated cost of $170 or removing it at estimated cost of $255.

Cost of Compliance
In c alculating the cost of compliance we assume that operating without a heater is unlikely to
be viable , as noted above

. We estimate the ten

- year cost of the proposed rule. Based on data in the 2014 GA Survey , we can somewhat conservatively assume that averag e flight hours per airplane per year are about 100 hours. 5 We estimate heater time to be 50% of airplane flight hours so, on average, flight hours will accumulate to about 1000 hours in ten years and heater
time will accumulate to about 500 hours. Since re quirements for inspection internals are “250 hours of combustion heater operations or two years, whichever occurs first ” , we expect inspections to usually occur every two years.” As will be seen below, compliance costs are
dominated by the almost immediate requirement for the PDT test. 6

5 The 2014 General Aviation Survey shows the average flight hours to be 87.2 hours per year for active single

engine piston airplanes with 4+ seats, 104.8 hours per year for active twin

- engine piston airplanes with 1

- 6 seat s, and 157.6 hours per airplane for active twin

- engine airplanes with 7+ seats. Using the flight hour figures for the first two categories, the weighted average for airplanes equipped with 900 series heaters is 93.6 hours and for airplanes equipped with 80 00 series it is 128.2 hours.

6 All three actions are required to be taken “within the next 10 hours of combu stion heater TIS or at the next scheduled 100 hr. inspection, Annual Inspection, or Phase Inspection that occurs after the effective date of this A D, whichever occurs first ...

. ”6 Pressure Decay Test
The FAA estimates that 90% of combustion tubes tested will fail the first PDT test. Since replacing the combustion tube , like an overhaul, requires complete disassembly of the combustion heater, we some what conservatively assume that operators will overhaul their
combustion heaters at $4,580, rather than simply replace the combustion tube , at $4900

. M ajor components such as the combustion tube, fuel pump, and temperature switches that are typically repla ced or overhauled in a combustion heater overhaul have service lives of 750 heater hours , equivalent to about 1,500 flight hours or 15 y ears. Therefore, we assume that once replaced or overhauled, these components will not need to be replaced during our 10

- year period of cost
estimation. So aside from the initial tube replacement, we estimate that , for inspections required by the proposed rule, “on

- condition” costs would be minimal.
Table 1 below shows our calculation of compliance cost for airplanes with t he affected Meggitt combustion heaters. We assume the rule to be effective in 2017 and , as discussed above, in the first year we assume the combustion heater fails the PDT resulting in a subsequent overhaul. For the 8000 series heaters note that the $935 l abor cost for 2017 includes three hours of labor ($255) for the detailed inspection and the PDT in addition to eight hours of labor for the overhaul ($680). 7

As the table shows, we estimate the present value cost of compliance to be $6,020 for airplanes eq uipped with 8000 series Meggitt combustion heaters and $7,514 for airplanes equipped with 900 series Meggitt combustion heaters . The lower cost for airplanes with 8000
series combustion heaters reflects the previously noted fact that 8000 series heaters ar e currently subject to the 250

- hour inspection and installation inspection requirements , and , therefore , the
incremental cost would be correspondingly less for airplanes with 8000 series combustion heaters compared to airplanes with 900 series heaters.

Eco nomic Impact on Small Entities If the cost of compliance is greater than 2% of the value of an operator’s airplane, the FAA
considers the cost impact to be significant. So if the value of an airplane equipped with an affected Meggitt combustion heater is l ess than 50 times the cost of compliance, we consider that the operator of the airplane would incur a substantial economic impact. With a present value cost

7 A similar note should be made for the 900 series combustion heaters, in that case, however, taking into account an additional four hours of inspection time.7 of about $6,000 for airplanes equipped with 8000 series Meggitt combustion heaters, the FAA
conside rs the cost impact to be significant for all such airplanes with values below about $300,000

. With a present value cost of about $7,500 f 1 or airplanes equipped with 900 series Meggitt combustion heaters, the FAA considers the cost impact to be significant for all such airplanes with values below about $350,000. The airplanes equipped with the affected heaters are single

- and twin

- engine piston airplanes that, for the most part, were manufactured from the 1940s to the 1980s, and range in price from about $35 0,000 for a Cessna 221C Golden Eagle down to a price as low as $30,000 for a Piper 23

- 150 Apache. 8 Accordingly, most of the 6244 airplanes equipped with Meggitt combustion heaters have values low enough to consider that the airplane operators would i ncur a significant economic impact . As noted above, many of these airplanes are registered to LLCs and other small companies.
The FAA therefore conclud es that this proposed rule would have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities.

8 Aircraft Bluebook, February 2012.8 

## Table 1. Cost s of Compliance
Airplanes with 8000 Series Meggitt Combustion Heaters

Year Materials Cost Labor Cost Mtls + Labor Cost Actions Discount factor (@7%) PV Cost

2017 $ 4,220 $ 935 $ 5,155 Detailed inspection (1 hr labor), PDT (2 hr s labor)

-- Overhaul after assumed failure (8 hrs labor, $4,220 materials) 1.000 $5,155

2019 $ 255 $ 255 Detailed inspection (1 hr labor), PDT inspection (2 hrs labor) 0.873 $ 223

2021 $ 25 5 $ 255 Detailed inspection ( 1 hr labor), PDT inspection (2 hrs labor) 0.763 $ 195

2023 $ 25 5 $ 255 Detailed inspection (1 hr labor), PDT inspection (2 hrs labor) 0.666 $ 170

2025 $ 25 5 $ 255 Detailed inspection (1 hr labor), PDT inspection ( 2 hrs labor) 0.582 $ 148

2027 $ 25 5 $ 255 Detailed inspection (1 hr labor), PDT inspection (2 hrs labor) 0.508 $ 130 Total PV Cost : $6,020 

### Airplanes with 900 Series Combustion Meggitt Heaters

Year Materials Cost Labor Cost Mtls + Labor Cost Actions Discount factor (@7%) PV Cost

2017 $ 4,220 $ 1,275 $ 5,495 250

- hr inspection (2 h rs labor), installat i on inspection (2 hrs labor), detailed inspection (1 hr labor), PDT (2 hrs labor)

-- Overhaul after assumed failure (8 hrs labor, $4,220 materials) 1.000 $5,495

2019 $ 595 $ 595 250

- hr inspection (2 hrs labor), installa t i on inspection (2 hrs labor), detailed inspection (1 hr labor), PDT (2 hrs labor) 0.873 $ 520

2021 $ 595 $ 595 250

- hr inspection (2 hrs labor), installat i on inspection (2 hrs labor), detailed inspection (1 hr labor), PDT (2 hrs labor) 0.763 $ 454

2023 $ 595 $ 595 250

- hr inspection (2 hrs labor), installat i on inspection (2 hrs labor), detailed inspection (1 hr labor), PDT (2 hrs labor) 0.666 $ 396

2025 $ 595 $ 595 250

- hr inspection (2 hrs labor), i nstallat i on inspection (2 hrs labor), detailed inspection (1 hr labor), PDT (2 hrs labor) 0.582 $ 346

2027 $ 595 $ 595 250

- hr inspection (2 hrs labor), installat i on inspection (2 hrs labor), detailed inspection (1 hr labor), PDT (2 hrs labor) 0.508 $ 302 Total PV Cost: $7,514 Note: Entries may not add to totals because of rounding