P.1 

OAR Box 1865 

Prepped by Charmelle Mathews 

Document Number: 

120) IV-K-(I)-1 

Docket Number: 

A-83-27 

Printed 12/3/2008 3:22:18 PM Sheet 120 of 198 
83-27 

1V-K-0 

ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, INC. 

1655 NORTH FORT MYER DR ARLINGTON 

^ 
P.3 

REGIONAL PROJECTIONS OF 

INDUSTRIAL FUEL PRICES 

Prepared for: 

U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY 

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards 

Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 

Prepared by: 

ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, INC. 

1655 North Fort Myer Drive, Suite 600 

Arlington, Virginia 22209 

August 14, 1986 
P.4 

These fuel price projections were furnished to the U.S. Environmental 

Protection Agency by Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., Arlington, 

Virginia, in fulfillment of Contract Number 68-02-4202. 
P.5 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

FIGURE 1: FEDERAL REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES 

APPENDIX A: REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL OIL AND GAS PRICE 

FORECASTS FOR THE LOW OIL PRICE SCENARIO 

APPENDIX B: REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL OIL AND GAS PRICE 

FORECASTS FOR THE HIGH OIL PRICE SCENARIO 

APPENDIX C: REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL COAL PRICE FORECASTS 
FIGURE 1 

Federal Regions of the United States 

REGION NAMES 

1. New England 

2. New York/New Jersey 

3. Middle Atlantic 

4. South Atlantic 

5. Midwest 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9. 

10. 

Southwest 

Central 

North Central 

West 

Northwest 
P.7 

APPENDIX A 

REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL OIL AND GAS 

PRICE FORECASTS FOR THE LOW 

OIL PRICE SCENARIO 

(SUMMER 1986) 
P.8 

LIST OF TABLES 

TABLE NO. TITLE 

A-l CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST 

A-2 INDUSTRIAL 3.0% SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS 

A-3 INDUSTRIAL 1.6% SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS 

A-4 INDUSTRIAL 0.8% SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS 

A-5 INDUSTRIAL 0.3% SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS 

A-6 INDUSTRIAL DISTILLATE FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS 

A-7 INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GAS PRICE PROJECTIONS: CARRIAGE MARKET 

ESTIMATES ASSUMING FLEXIBLE CARRIAGE MARKET 

A-8 INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GAS PRICE PROJECTIONS: NON-CARRIAGE 

MARKET ESTIMATES ASSUMING FLEXIBLE CARRIAGE MARKET 

A-9 INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GAS PRICE PROJECTIONS: CARRIAGE MARKET 

ESTIMATES ASSUMING MARKET RIGIDITY 

A-10 INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GAS PRICE PROJECTIONS: NON-CARRIAGE 

MARKET ESTIMATES ASSUMING MARKET RIGIDITY 
P.9 

TABLE A-l. CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST* 

Average Refiner Acquisition 

Cost of Crude Oil 

Year ; (1985 $/bbl) 

1985 (actual) 26.76 

1988 13.34 

1990 14.47 

1995 20.08 

2000 24.61 

2005 30.79 

'Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 
P.10 

TABLE A-2. INDUSTRIAL 3.0% 

SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1985** 1988 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 4.25 2.15 2.34 3.29 4.06 5.10 

2. New York/New Jersey 4.18 2.09 2.28 3.23 4.00 5.04 

3. Middle Atlantic 4.18 2.09 2.28 3.23 4.00 5.04 

4. South Atlantic 4.16 2.07 2.26 3.21 3.97 5.02 

5. Midwest 4.33 2.24 2.43 3.38 4.14 5.19 

6. Southwest 4.14 2.05 2.24 3.19 3.95 5.00 

7. Central 4.30 2.21 2.40 3.34 4.11 5.15 

8. North Central 4.24 2.16 2.35 3.31 4.08 5.14 

9. West 4.06 2.05 2.24 3.16 3.91 4.94 

10. Northwest 4.01 2.01 2.19 3.12 3.87 4.89 

*Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 

**Estimate, not actual. 
TABLE A-3. INDUSTRIAL 1.6% 

SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

p.11 

Federal region 1985** 1988 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 

2. New York/New Jersey 

4.46 2.33 2.52 3.48 4.26 5.32 

4.40 2.27 2.46 3.43 4.21 5.26 

3. Middle Atlantic 4.40 2.27 2.46 3.43 4.21 5.26 

4. South Atlantic 4.37 2.25 2.44 3.41 4.18 5.24 

5. Midwest 4.54 2.42 2.61 3.57 4.35 5.41 

6. Southwest 

7. Central 

8. North Central 

4.35 2.23 2.42 3.38 4.16 5.22 

4.51 2.39 2.57 3.53 4.32 5.37 

4.46 2.33 2.52 3.49 4.28 5.35 

9. West 4.28 2.22 2.41 3.34 4.11 5.15 

10. Northwest 4.24 2.18 2.14 3.30 4.07 5.11 

*Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 

**Estimate, not actual. 
P.12 

TABLE A-4. INDUSTRIAL 0.8% 

SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1985** 1988 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 4.80 2.56 2.76 3.77 4.59 5.70 

2. New York/New Jersey 4.74 2.49 2.70 3.71 4.52 5.64 

3. Middle Atlantic 4.74 2.49 2.70 3.71 4.52 5.64 

4. South Atlantic 4.72 2.47 2.68 3.69 4.50 5.61 

5. Midwest 4.89 2.64 2.85 3.86 4.67 5.78 

6. Southwest 4.70 2.45 2.66 3.67 4.48 5.60 

7. Central 4.86 2.61 2.81 3.82 4.64 5.75 

8. North Central 4.80 2.53 2.73 3.73 4.55 5.66 

9. West 4.64 2.43 2.63 3.61 4.40 5.49 

10. Northwest 4.60 2.39 2.58 3.57 4.36 5.45 

*Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 

**Estimate, not actual. 
P.13 

TABLE A-5. INDUSTRIAL 0.3% 

SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1985** 1988 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 5.04 2.68 2.88 3.92 4.75 5.89 

2. New York/New Jersey 4.98 2.61 2.82 3.86 4.69 5.83 

3. Middle Atlantic 4.98 2.61 2.82 3.86 4.69 5.83 

4. South Atlantic 4.95 2.59 2.80 3.83 4.67 5.81 

5. Midwest 5.13 2.76 2.97 4.01 4.84 5.98 

6. Southwest 4.93 2.57 2.78 3.81 4.65 5.79 

7. Central 5.09 2.73 2.93 3.97 4.81 5.94 

8. North Central 5.06 2.64 2.85 3.89 4.72 5.85 

9. West 4.88 2.53 2.74 3.74 4.55 5.65 

10. Northwest 4.84 2.49 2.69 3.70 4.51 5.61 

*Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 

**Estimate, not actual. 
P.M 

TABLE A-6. INDUSTRIAL 

DISTILLATE FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1985** 1988 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 6.17 3.16 3.38 4.61 5.60 6.96 

2. New York/New Jersey 6.15 3.13 3.36 4.59 5.58 6.94 

3. Middle Atlantic 6.15 3.13 3.36 4.59 5.58 6.94 

4. South Atlantic 6.03 3.05 3.27 4.49 5.47 6.80 

5. Midwest 

6. Southwest 

5.98 3.02 3.24 4.45 5.42 6.75 

5.85 2.89 3.11 4.32 5.30 6.63 

7. Central 5.98 3.02 3.24 4.44 5.42 6.75 

8. North Central 5.65 2.82 3.01 4.21 5.19 6.42 

9. West 5.46 2.72 2.91 4.16 5.01 6.21 

10. Northwest 5.39 2.72 2.91 4.10 4.94 6.13 

*Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 

**Estimate, not actual. 
P.15 

TABLE A-7. INDUSTRIAL NATURAL 

GAS PRICE PROJECTIONS: CARRIAGE MARKET ESTIMATES 

ASSUMING FLEXIBLE CARRIAGE MARKET* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1988 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 2.41 2.60 3.62 4.37 5.45 

2. New York/New Jersey 2.49 2.70 3.71 4.52 5.64 

3. Middle Atlantic 2.34 2.54 3.62 4.33 5.39 

4. South Atlantic 2.17 2.51 3.62 4.33 5.36 

5. Midwest 2.49 2.69 3.67 4.46 5.54 

6. Southwest 2.15 2.34 3.34 4.14 5.16 

7. Central 2.31 2.51 3.62 4.33 5.36 

8. North Central 

9. West 

2.38 2.60 3.62 4.38 5.46 

2.43 2.63 3.62 4.40 5.49 

10. Northwest 2.21 2.51 3.62 4.33 5.36 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 
P.16 

TABLE A-8. INDUSTRIAL NATURAL 

GAS PRICE PROJECTIONS: NON-CARRIAGE MARKET ESTIMATES 

ASSUMING FLEXIBLE CARRIAGE MARKET* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1988 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 3.23 3.63 4.58 5.39 6.42 

2. New York/New Jersey 3.70 3.91 4.49 5.30 6.32 

3. Middle Atlantic 3.04 3.32 4.47 5.28 6.30 

4. South Atlantic 3.05 3.29 4.59 5.46 6.55 

5. Midwest 2.98 3.26 4.41 5.23 6.27 

6. Southwest** 2.15 2.34 3.34 4.14 5.16 

7. Central 2.71 2.96 4.23 5.01 5.99 

8. North Central 2.53 2.73 3.63 4.32 5.21 

9. West 2.62 3.00 4.11 4.89 5.88 

10. Northwest 2.42 2.75 3.90 4.74 5.82 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 

** Equivalent to carriage rate for intrastate markets. 
P.17 

TABLE A-9. INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GAS 

PRICE PROJECTIONS: CARRIAGE MARKET ESTIMATES 

ASSUMING MARKET RIGIDITY* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1988 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 2.41 2.78 3.89 4.70 5.87 

2. New York/New Jersey 2.49 2.74 3.84 4.65 5.81 

3. Middle Atlantic 2.34 2.73 3.81 4.63 5.79 

4. South Atlantic 2.18 2.67 3.78 4.59 5.76 

5. Midwest 2.49 2.73 3.77 4.58 5.75 

6. Southwest 2.15 2.34 3.46 4.19 5.36 

7. Central 2.31 2.61 3.69 4.51 5.67 

8. North Central 2.38 2.61 3.60 4.41 5.57 

9. West 2.43 2.63 3.62 4.43 5.60 

10. Northwest 2.21 2.50 3.54 4.35 5.51 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 
P.18. 

TABLE A-10. INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GAS 

PROJECTIONS: NON-CARRIAGE MARKET ESTIMATES 

ASSUMING MARKET RIGIDITY* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1988 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 3.23 3.75 4.76 5.50 6.67 

2. New York/New Jersey 3.20 3.69 4.55 5.28 6.44 

3. Middle Atlantic 3.04 3.30 4.53 5.27 6.43 

4. South Atlantic 3.05 3.27 4.59 5.37 6.61 

5. Midwest 2.98 3.23 4.42 5.16 6.34 

6. Southwest** 2.15 2.34 3.46 4.19 5.67 

7. Central 2.71 2.93 4.21 4.90 6.02 

8. North Central 2.53 2.73 3.63 4.26 5.26 

9. West 2.60 2.87 3.97 4.66 5.77 

10. Northwest 2.42 2.67 3.95 4.70 5.91 

* Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 

** Equivalent to carriage rate for intrastate markets. 
P.19 

APPENDIX B 

REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL OIL AND GAS 

PRICE FORECASTS FOR THE HIGH 

OIL PRICE SCENARIO 

(SUMMER 1986) 
P.20 

LIST OF TABLES 

TABLE NO. TITLE 

B-1 CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST 

B-2 INDUSTRIAL 3.0% SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS 

B-3 INDUSTRIAL 1.6% SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS 

B-4 INDUSTRIAL 0.8% SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS 

B-5 INDUSTRIAL 0.3% SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS 

B-6 INDUSTRIAL DISTILLATE FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS 

B-7 INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GAS PRICE PROJECTIONS: CARRIAGE MARKET 

ESTIMATES 

B-8 INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GAS PRICE PROJECTIONS: NON-CARRIAGE 

MARKET ESTIMATES 
P.21 

TABLE B-1. CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST* 

Average Refiner Acquisition 

Cost of Crude Oil 

Year (1985 $/bbl) 

1985 (actual) 26.76 

1987 20.13 

1990 23.87 

1995 27.02 

2000 30.61 

2005 37.42 

*Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 
P.22 

TABLE B-2. INDUSTRIAL 3.0% 

SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1985** 1987 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 4.25 3.30 3.93 4.46 5.07 6.22 

2. New York/New Jersey 4.18 3.24 3.87 4.40 5.01 6.16 

3. Middle Atlantic 4.18 3.24 3.87 4.40 5.01 6.16 

4. South Atlantic 4.16 3.22 3.85 4.38 4.99 6.14 

5. -Midwest 4.33 3.39 4.02 4.55 5.16 6.31 

6. Southwest 4.14 3.20 3.83 4.36 4.97 6.12 

7. Central 4.30 3.35 3.99 4.52 5.12 6.27 

8. North Central 4.24 3.32 3.96 4.50 5.11 6.27 

9. West 4.06 3.17 3.79 4.31 4.91 6.03 

10. Northwest 4.01 3.13 3.75 4.27 4.86 5.98 

*Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 

**Estimate, not actual. 
TABLE B-3. INDUSTRIAL 1.6% 

SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1985** 1987 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 4.46 3.50 4.14 4.67 5.29 6.47 

2. New York/New Jersey 4.40 3.44 4.08 4.61 5.23 6.41 

3. Middle Atlantic 4.40 3.44 4.08 4.61 5.23 6.41 

4. South Atlantic 4.37 3.42 4.06 4.59 5.21 6.39 

5. Midwest 4.54 3.59 4.23 4.76 5.38 6.56 

6. Southwest 4.35 3.40 4.04 4.57 5.19 6.37 

7. Central 4.51 3.55 4.20 4.73 5.34 6.52 

8. North Central 4.46 3.52 4.17 4.71 5.33 6.52 

9. West 4.28 3.37 4.00 4.52 5.13 6.28 

10. Northwest 4.24 3.33 3.96 4.47 5.08 6.24 

*Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 

**Estimate, not actual. 
TABLE B-4. INDUSTRIAL 0.8% 

SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1985** 1987 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 4.80 3.78 4.45 5.02 5.67 6.98 

2. New York/New Jersey 4.74 3.72 4.39 4.96 5.60 6.83 

3. Middle Atlantic 4.74 3.72 4.39 4.96 5.60 6.83 

4. South Atlantic 4.72 3.70 4.37 4.93 5.58 6.81 

5. Midwest 4.89 3.87 4.54 5.10 5.75 6.98 

6. Southwest 4.70 3.68 4.35 4.92 5.56 6.79 

7. Central 4.86 3.83 4.51 5.07 5.72 6.94 

8. North Central 4.80 3.74 4.41 4.98 5.63 6.85 

9. West 4.64 3.62 4.27 4.83 5.46 6.65 

10. Northwest 4.60 3.58 4.23 4.78 5.41 6.61 

*Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 

**Estimate, not actual. 
P.25 

TABLE B-5. INDUSTRIAL 0.3% 

SULFUR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1985** 1987 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 5.04 3.93 4.62 5.20 5.86 7.12 

2. New York/New Jersey 4.98 3.87 4.55 5.14 5.80 7.05 

3. Middle Atlantic 4.98 3.87 4.55 5.14 5.80 7.05 

4. South Atlantic 4.95 3.84 4.53 5.11 5.77 7.03 

5. Midwest 5.13 4.02 4.70 5.28 5.95 7.20 

6. Southwest 4.93 3.82 4.51 5.09 5.75 7.01 

7. Central 5.09 3.98 4.67 5.25 5.91 7.17 

8. North Central 5.06 3.90 4.58 5.16 5.83 7.08 

9. West 4.88 3.75 4.42 4.98 5.63 6.84 

10. Northwest 4.84 3.71 4.37 4.94 5.58 6.80 

*Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 

**Estimate, not actual. 
TABLE B-6. INDUSTRIAL DISTILLATE 

FUEL OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1985** 1987 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 6.17 4.66 5.44 6.13 6.92 8.41 

2. New York/New Jersey 6.15 4.63 5.42 6.11 6.90 8.39 

3. Middle Atlantic 6.15 4.63 5.42 6.11 6.90 8.39 

4. South Atlantic 6.03 4.53 5.31 5.99 6.76 8.24 

5. Midwest 5.98 4.49 5.26 5.94 6.71 8.18 

6. Southwest 5.85 4.37 5.14 5.81 6.59 8.05 

7. Central 5.98 4.49 5.26 5.94 6.71 8.18 

8. North Central 5.65 4.16 4.93 5.61 6.38 7.85 

9. West 5.46 4.01 4.76 5.42 6.17 7.60 

10. Northwest 5.39 3.94 4.69 5.35 6.10 7.52 

*Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 

**Estimate, not actual. 
P.27 

TABLE B-7. INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GAS 

PRICE PROJECTIONS: CARRIAGE MARKET ESTIMATES" 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1987 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 3.59 4.25 4.79 5.42 6.61 

2. New York/New Jersey 3.72 4.39 4.96 5.60 6.68 

3. Middle Atlantic 3.27 4.18 4.74 5.36 6.54 

4. South Atlantic 2.95 3.95 4.68 5.30 6.44 

5. Midwest 

6. Southwest 

3.09 4.30 4.88 5.51 6.69 

2.28 3.44 4.43 5.06 6.22 

7. Central 2.84 4.03 4.63 5.25 6.39 

8. North Central 2.53 3.78 4.80 5.43 6.63 

9. West 2.89 4.18 4.83 5.46 6.65 

10. Northwest 2.33 3.58 4.57 5.19 6.35 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 
P.28 

TABLE B-8. INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GAS 

PRICE PROJECTIONS: NON-CARRIAGE MARKET ESTIMATES' 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

Federal region 1987 1990 1995 2000 2005 

1. New England 3.78 5.29 6.52 7.10 8.18 

2. New York/New Jersey 3.87 5.11 6.32 6.91 7.99 

3. Middle Atlantic 3.71 4.61 5.91 6.50 7.60 

4. South Atlantic 3.32 4.41 5.81 6.45 7.63 

5. Midwest 3.51 4.43 5.74 6.34 7.45 

6. Southwest * 2.28 3.44 4.43 5.06 6.22 

7. Central 3.17 3.98 5.21 5.78 6.84 

8. North Central 2.77 3.41 4.39 4.91 5.87 

9. West 3.17 4.01 5.14 5.71 6.77 

10. Northwest 2.87 3.59 4.83 5.46 6.64 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. 

k* Equivalent to carriage rate for intrastate market. 
P.29 

APPENDIX C 

REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL COAL PRICE FORECASTS 

Source: Memorandum from Ebert, C. (ICF Incorporated) to Shelby, M. 

(EPA). July 31, 1986. New Coal Prices for Industrial NSPS 

Analyses 
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P.32 

DELIVERED INDUSTRIAL COAL PRICE FORECAST* 

(1985 $/MMBtu) 

(Continued) 

Federal region 

8. North 

Central 

9. West 

• 

10. Northwest 

Coal type 

Bituminous 

Subbituminous 

Bituminous 

Subbituminous 

Bituminous 

Sulfur content 

(lb S02/MMBtu) 

1.08 

1.67 

1.08 

1.67 

1.08 

1.67 

1.08 

1.67 

1.08 

1.67 

Subbituminous 

1.08 

1.67 

<1.08 

- 1.67 

- 2.50 

<1.08 

- 1.67 

- 2.50 

<1.08 

- 1.67 

-2.50 

<1.08 

- 1.67 

- 2.50 

<1.08 

- 1.67 

-2.50 

<1.08 

- 1.67 

- 2.50 

1985 

1.77 

1.77 

1.81 

1.31 

1.29 

1.29 

2.48 

2.41 

2.47 

2.49 

2.50 

2.46 

2.54 

2.52 

2.53 

2.30 

2.26 

1.72 

1990 

1.86 

1.85 

1.85 

1.33 

1.31 

1.33 

2.64 

2.60 

2.60 

2.50 

2.55 

2.48 

2.67 

2.66 

2.60 

2.39 

2.31 

1.75 

1995 

1.96 

1.93 

1.95 

1.41 

1.34 

1.38 

2.66 

2.57 

2.57 

2.61 

2.60 

2.51 

2.82 

2.73 

2.63 

2.42 

2.34 

1.94 

2000 

2.04 

2.00 

2.00 

1.48 

1.42 

1.40 

2.78 

2.69 

2.69 

2.65 

2.54 

2.51 

2.87 

2.79 

2.65 

2.51 

2.45 

2.05 

*ICF Incorporated.