### 1

ANALYTICAL RESULTS IN SUPPORT OF STAKEHOLDER NEGOTIATIONS ON

AME NDED ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FORDISTRIBUTION

TRANSFORMERS

August 23, 2011

The following analytical results have been generated by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

(LBNL) and Navigant Consulting, Inc. (NCI) to support stakeholder negotiations concerning

amended energy conservation standards for distribution transformers. The analytical results

presented here are based on inputs (e.g., manufacturer selling prices as a function of efficiency)

and analytical tools which are still under review. Therefore, the following information may not

refle ct final results to be published in subsequent DOE rulemaking documents.

1. Distribution Transformers Draft Trial Standard Levels

Life-cycle cost (LCC), payback period (PBP), and national impact analysis (NIA) results were

requested for the following draft trial standard levels.

T able 1.1 Distribution Transformers Draft Trial Standard Levels for Liquid-Immersed

Distribution Transformers

Design

Line Base

( 2007 FR ) 

### Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

1 99.08 99.16 99.22 99.25 99.31 99.50

2 98.91 99.00 99.07 99.11 99.18 99.46

3 99.42 99.51 99.54 99.57 99.61 99.73

4 99.08 99.16 99.22 99.25 99.31 99.60

5 99.42 99.51 99.54 99.57 99.61 99.69

Table 1.2 Distribution Transformers Draft Trial Standard Levels for Low-Voltage DryTyp e Distribution Transformers

Design

Line Base

( EPACT ‘05 ) 

### Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 (NEMA

Premium) 

### 3 4 5 6

6 98.00 98.47 98.60 98.60 98.80 98.93 99.44

7 98.00 98.47 98.60 98.60 98.80 98.93 99.44

8 98.60 99.14 99.02 99.25 99.32 99.44 99.58

### 2

Table 1.3 Distribution Transformers Draft Trial Standard Levels for Medium-Voltage

Dry -Type Distribution Transformers

Design

Line Base

( 2007 FR ) 

### Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

9 98.82 98.99 99.12 99.28 99.38 99.59

10 99.22 99.40 99.50 99.53 99.60 99.67

11 98.67 98.81 98.94 99.06 99.13 99.50

12 99.12 99.30 99.39 99.46 99.53 99.65

13A 98.63 98.76 98.85 98.92 99.10 99.48

13B 99.15 99.31 99.38 99.43 99.49 99.58

2. LCC and PBP Results

Life-cycle cost (LCC), and payback period results were requested for the following design lines.

2.1. LCC and PBP Results for Liquid-Immersed Distribution Transformers

Table 2.1 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 1

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Efficiency (%) 99.16 99.22 99.25 99.31 99.50

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 41.2 0.7 0.6 3.9 38.1

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 40.9 83.8 83.9 84.4 61.8

Transformers with No Impact (%) 17.9 15.5 15.5 11.7 0.1

Mean LCC Savings ($) 116 918 920 902 369

Median Payback (Years) 19.6 8.4 8.4 10.0 20.3



### Table 2.2 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 2

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Efficiency (%) 99.00 99.07 99.11 99.18 99.46

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 15.0 5.5 6.4 10.4 66.7

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 73.2 83.2 83.2 82.8 33.3

Transformers with No Impact (%) 11.9 11.3 10.4 6.9 0.0

Mean LCC Savings ($) 467 574 562 528

- 214

Median Payback (Years) 9.7 9.7 10.1 11.7 27.6

### 3

Table 2.3 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 3

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Efficiency (%) 99.51 99.54 99.57 99.61 99.73

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 4.9 1.7 1.2 1.6 27.1

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 51.8 69.6 71.0 73.7 72.9

Transformers with No Impact (%) 43.3 28.7 27.8 24.7 0.0

Mean LCC Savings ($) 2739 5371 5733 6748 7110

Median Payback (Years) 4.3 4.9 4.9 5.2 14.4



### Table 2.4 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 4

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Efficiency (%) 99.16 99.22 99.25 99.31 99.60

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.0

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 49.3 53.2 53.2 53.2 51.0

Transformers with No Impact (%) 46.8 46.8 46.8 46.8 0.0

Mean LCC Savings ($) 1100 2545 2545 2545 755

Median Payback (Years) 11.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 22.7



### Table 2.5 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 5

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Efficiency (%) 99.51 99.54 99.57 99.61 99.69

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 13.4 6.3 4.9 2.6 18.0

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 77.3 86.3 88.9 96.0 82.0

Transformers with No Impact (%) 9.3 7.4 6.2 1.5 0.0

Mean LCC Savings ($) 9465 12962 13728 18355 14473

Median Payback (Years) 7.4 7.4 7.5 8.4 17.1



### 2.2. LCC and PBP Results for Low-Voltage Dry-Type Distribution Transformers

Table 2.6 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 6

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Efficiency (%) 98.47 98.60 98.60 98.80 98.93 99.44

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 36.6 25.2 25.2 37.5 32.4 97.7

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 62.0 74.5 74.5 62.5 67.6 2.3

Transformers with No Impact (%) 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mean LCC Savings ($) 29 59 59 76 122

- 952

Median Payback (Years) 15.4 13.4 13.4 16.3 15.6 40.0

### 4

Table 2.7 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 7

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Efficiency (%) 98.47 98.60 98.60 98.80 98.93 99.44

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 0.5 18.5 18.5 10.9 10.1 69.8

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 72.8 80.0 80.0 89.1 90.0 30.2

Transformers with No Impact (%) 26.7 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mean LCC Savings ($) 826 849 849 1093 1328

- 511

Median Payback (Years) 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 8.1 23.4



### Table 2.8 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 8

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Efficiency (%) 99.14 99.02 99.25 99.32 99.44 99.58

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 1.9 1.3 5.2 4.1 4.1 56.1

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 94.8 91.6 94.9 96.0 95.9 43.9

Transformers with No Impact (%) 3.2 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mean LCC Savings ($) 4253 3554 4999 5826 5844

- 186

Median Payback (Years) 4.0 4.0 7.6 7.0 7.0 19.7



### 2.3. LCC and PBP Results for Medium-Voltage Dry-Type Distribution Transformers

Table 2.9 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 9

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Efficiency (%) 98.99 99.12 99.28 99.38 99.59

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 0.5 2.2 11.0 7.7 60.5

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 88.3 96.3 89.0 92.3 39.5

Transformers with No Impact (%) 11.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mean LCC Savings ($) 2761 3863 3700 5085

- 673

Median Payback (Years) 1.8 3.1 9.3 8.9 20.6



### Table 2.10 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 10

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Efficiency (%) 99.40 99.50 99.53 99.60 99.67

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 24.8 31.7 27.4 35.5 69.5

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 75.2 68.3 72.6 64.6 30.5

Transformers with No Impact (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mean LCC Savings ($) 4329 4849 6311 5574

- 5311

Median Payback (Years) 11.1 14.5 14.1 15.5 23.1

### 5

Table 2.11 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 11

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Efficiency (%) 98.81 98.94 99.06 99.13 99.50

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 27.1 46.4 16.6 14.0 57.8

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 70.5 53.6 83.5 86.0 42.2

Transformers with No Impact (%) 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mean LCC Savings ($) 810 497 2709 3121

- 309

Median Payback (Years) 11.4 17.0 12.0 11.9 20.0



### Table 2.12 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 12

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Efficiency (%) 99.30 99.39 99.46 99.53 99.65

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 13.0 24.6 24.3 25.6 64.7

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 85.8 75.4 75.7 74.4 35.3

Transformers with No Impact (%) 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mean LCC Savings ($) 8865 8644 8076 9726

- 4210

Median Payback (Years) 6.7 10.6 13.5 13.7 21.7



### Table 2.13 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 13A

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Efficiency (%) 98.76 98.85 98.92 99.10 99.48

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 27.6 28.9 41.1 30.9 87.5

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 70.7 71.0 58.9 69.1 12.5

Transformers with No Impact (%) 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mean LCC Savings ($) 855 1107 749 1701

- 6331

Median Payback (Years) 10.5 12.6 15.9 15.4 29.3



### Table 2.14 LCC and PBP Results, Design Line 13B

Draft Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Efficiency (%) 99.31 99.38 99.43 99.49 99.58

Transformers with Net Cost (%) 12.2 19.9 39.8 26.7 39.8

Transformers with Net Benefit (%) 87.7 80.1 60.2 73.3 60.2

Transformers with No Impact (%) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mean LCC Savings ($) 8668 8878 4642 9271 6033

Median Payback (Years) 9.0 11.6 16.1 14.5 16.8

### 6

3. National Impacts Analysis Results

Nati onal impacts and shipment results were requested for the following equipment classes.

3.1. NIA Results for Liquid-Immersed Distribution Transformers

Table 3.1 NIA Results, All Liquid-Immersed Distribution Transformers

Draft Trial Standard Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5

Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 1.95 1.91 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.77

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 63.08

- 7.47

- 10.08

- 9.44

- 10.61

- 33.85

Operating Cost (Savings in EL s) ($Billions) 83.72 11.20 16.16 18.07 22.65 35.25

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.691 1.01 1.13 1.44 2.25

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 3.73 6.08 8.63 12.04 1.40

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions)

- 0.164 0.10 1.00 1.741

- 6.51



### Table 3.2 NIA Results, Equipment Class 1

Draft Trial Standard Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5

Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 0.8005 0.7841 0.7794 0.7796 0.7769 0.7359

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 44.9934

- 4.8185

- 6.2546

- 6.1859

- 7.0457

- 21.6533

Operating Cost (Savings in EL s) ($Billions) 39.2239 7.5275 11.1791 11.5948 12.9596 17.7591

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.4826 0.7190 0.7431 0.8223 1.0908

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 2.7090 4.9245 5.4088 5.9139

- 3.8943

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions)

- 0.0598 0.3834 0.5401 0.4983

- 5.6247



### Table 3.3 NIA Results, Equipment Class 2

Draft Trial Standard Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5

Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 1.1540 1.1220 1.1090 1.1152 1.1118 1.0312

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 18.0893

- 2.6545

- 3.8220

- 3.2568

- 3.5661

- 12.1984

Operating Cost (Savings in EL s) ($Billions) 44.4959 3.6762 4.9800 6.4756 9.6949 17.4895

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.2083 0.2884 0.3904 0.6142 1.1548

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 1.0216 1.1580 3.2188 6.1288 5.2912

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions)

- 0.1043

- 0.2800 0.4558 1.2430

- 0.8822

### 7

3.2. NIA Results for Low-Voltage Dry-Type Distribution Transformers

Tab le 3.4 NIA Results, All Low-Voltage Dry-Type Distribution Transformers

Draft Trial Standard Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5 6

Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 0.617 0.668 0.675 0.661 0.667 0.583 0.534

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 17.258 6.020 6.785 5.352 5.941

- 5.449

- 15.930

Operating Cost (Savings in EL s) ($Billions) 23.309 11.937 12.836 12.698 15.456 8.634 13.093

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 1.233 1.326 1.312 1.596 0.895 1.352

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 17.957 19.620 18.051 21.397 3.185

- 2.837

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 6.880 7.558 6.779 7.956

- 0.057

- 4.024



### Table 3.5 NIA Results, Equipment Class 3

Draft Trial Standard Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5 6

Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 0.0216 0.0226 0.0228 0.0226 0.0224 0.0203 0.0186

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 0.8040 0.1831 0.2031 0.1739 0.1410

- 0.2653

- 0.7703

Operating Cost (Savings in EL s) ($Billions) 0.7156 0.2532 0.2984 0.2764 0.4116 0.2786 0.4100

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.0261 0.0308 0.0285 0.0425 0.0288 0.0423

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.4363 0.5015 0.4503 0.5526 0.0133

- 0.3603

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.1744 0.1990 0.1770 0.2030

- 0.0478

- 0.2654



### Table 3.6 NIA Results, Equipment Class 4

Draft Trial Standard Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5 6

Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 0.5957 0.6449 0.6524 0.6386 0.6446 0.5624 0.5153

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 16.4536 5.8368 6.5817 5.1784 5.8001

- 5.1836

- 15.1595

Operating Cost (Savings in EL s) ($Billions) 22.5931 11.6836 12.5372 12.4220 15.0440 8.3554 12.6833

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 1.2073 1.2954 1.2837 1.5538 0.8663 1.3094

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 17.5203 19.1189 17.6004 20.8441 3.1718

- 2.4763

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 6.7055 7.3590 6.6019 7.7533

- 0.0097

- 3.7586

### 8

3.3. NIA Results for Medium-Voltage Dry-Type Distribution Transformers

Table 3.7 NIA Results, All Medium-Voltage Dry-Type Distribution Transformers

Draft Trial Standard Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5

Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 0.223 0.222 0.219 0.214 0.213 0.197

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 4.015

- 0.075

- 0.434

- 0.912

- 1.102

- 3.264

Operating Cost (Savings in EL s) ($Billions) 6.332 1.693 2.269 2.713 3.238 3.279

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.194 0.260 0.298 0.357 0.368

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 1.618 1.835 1.800 2.136 0.015

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.499 0.497 0.393 0.462

- 0.635



### Table 3.8 NIA Results, Equipment Class 5

Draft Trial Standard Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5

Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 0.0077 0.0015 0.0012 0.0006 0.0010

- 0.0071

Operating Cost (Savings in EL s) ($Billions) 0.0120 0.0048 0.0064 0.0072 0.0086 0.0058

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.0005 0.0007 0.0008 0.0009 0.0006

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.0063 0.0076 0.0078 0.0096

- 0.0013

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.0023 0.0027 0.0026 0.0032

- 0.0018



### Table 3.9 NIA Results, Equipment Class 6

Draft Trial Standard Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5

Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 0.0329 0.0329 0.0320 0.0318 0.0315 0.0289

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 0.5248

- 0.0047

- 0.0828

- 0.1021

- 0.1261

- 0.4244

Operating Cost (Savings in EL s) ($Billions) 0.8203 0.2258 0.3471 0.3862 0.4505 0.4079

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.0256 0.0384 0.0426 0.0500 0.0459

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.2211 0.2643 0.2841 0.3244

- 0.0165

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.0693 0.0677 0.0702 0.0783

- 0.0884



### Table 3.10 NIA Results, Equipment Class 7

Draft Trial Standard Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5

Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0004

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 0.0124 0.0023 0.0019 0.0009 0.0018

- 0.0107

Operating Cost (Savings in EL s) ($Billions) 0.0181 0.0072 0.0090 0.0104 0.0122 0.0091

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.0008 0.0010 0.0011 0.0013 0.0010

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.0095 0.0109 0.0113 0.0140

- 0.0016

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.0035 0.0038 0.0038 0.0048

- 0.0026

### 9

Table 3.11 NIA Results, Equipment Class 8

Draft Trial Standard Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5

Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 0.1731 0.1724 0.1696 0.1655 0.1643 0.1522

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 3.1545

- 0.0642

- 0.3266

- 0.7527

- 0.8856

- 2.5069

Operating Cost (Savings in EL s) ($Billions) 5.0006 1.3387 1.7511 2.1283 2.5614 2.6974

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.1545 0.2024 0.2335 0.2833 0.3035

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 1.2745 1.4246 1.3755 1.6758 0.1905

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.3920 0.3881 0.2890 0.3583

- 0.4311



### Table 3.12 NIA Results, Equipment Class 9

Draft Trial Standard Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5

Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 0.0022 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001

- 0.0003

- 0.0033

Operating Cost (Savings in EL s) ($Billions) 0.0033 0.0012 0.0015 0.0017 0.0016 0.0003

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.0014 0.0017 0.0017 0.0013

- 0.0030

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0003

- 0.0016



### Table 3.13 NIA Results, Equipment Class 10

Draft Trial Standard Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5

Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 0.0164 0.0161 0.0160 0.0160 0.0159 0.0151

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 0.3135

- 0.0103

- 0.0280

- 0.0591

- 0.0932

- 0.3114

Operating Cost (Savings in EL s) ($Billions) 0.4775 0.1156 0.1537 0.1789 0.2040 0.1586

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.0126 0.0170 0.0199 0.0212 0.0166

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.1053 0.1257 0.1198 0.1108

- 0.1528

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.0314 0.0344 0.0264 0.0169

- 0.1096

### 10

4. Estimated Core Steel Demand for Certain Steel Grades

Estimated core steel demands were requested for the following equipment classes. This section

provides estimated projected demands of certain core steels for each equipment category. These

simple estimates are based on the fraction of each material type that was selected during the lifecycle cost simulation for each design line. These material type fractions were then scaled to the

corresponding equipment classes and projected over the analysis period using the shipment

forecasting model.

4.1. Estimated Amorphous Steel Demand

Table 4.1 Estimated Amorphous Steel Demand for Liquid-Immersed Transformers (tons)

Total Base Case Total d TSL 1 Total d TSL 2 Total d TSL 3 Total d TSL 4 Total d TSL 5

2016 25,293 102,555 147,049 145,838 149,316 169,282

2017 25,474 103,290 148,103 146,883 150,387 170,496

2018 25,691 104,169 149,363 148,133 151,667 171,947

2019 25,917 105,087 150,680 149,439 153,003 173,463

2020 26,142 105,997 151,984 150,733 154,328 174,965

2021 26,349 106,837 153,189 151,927 155,551 176,351

2022 26,566 107,718 154,451 153,180 156,833 177,805

2023 26,795 108,646 155,782 154,499 158,184 179,336

2024 27,055 109,701 157,295 156,000 159,721 181,078

2025 27,268 110,563 158,532 157,226 160,977 182,502

2026 27,495 111,485 159,853 158,536 162,318 184,023

2027 27,728 112,428 161,206 159,878 163,692 185,580

2028 27,989 113,489 162,727 161,387 165,236 187,331

2029 28,199 114,341 163,949 162,598 166,477 188,738

2030 28,461 115,401 165,468 164,105 168,020 190,487

2031 28,713 116,423 166,934 165,560 169,509 192,175

2032 28,976 117,489 168,462 167,075 171,060 193,934

2033 29,173 118,289 169,609 168,213 172,225 195,255

2034 29,409 119,245 170,981 169,573 173,618 196,833

2035 29,634 120,159 172,291 170,872 174,948 198,341

2036 29,882 121,163 173,730 172,299 176,409 199,998

2037 30,132 122,175 175,181 173,739 177,883 201,669

2038 30,383 123,196 176,645 175,190 179,369 203,354

2039 30,637 124,225 178,121 176,654 180,868 205,053

2040 30,893 125,263 179,609 178,130 182,378 206,766

2041 31,151 126,309 181,109 179,618 183,902 208,493

2042 31,411 127,364 182,622 181,118 185,438 210,234

2043 31,674 128,428 184,147 182,631 186,987 211,990

2044 31,938 129,500 185,685 184,156 188,548 213,761

2045 32,205 130,582 187,236 185,694 190,123 215,546

### 11

Table 4.2 Estimated Amorphous Steel Demand for Low-Voltage Dry-Type Transformers

(ton s)

Total Base

Case Total

d TSL 1 Total

d TSL 2 Total

d TSL 3 Total

d TSL 4 Total

d TSL 5 Total

d TSL 6

201

6 - - - 3,754 6,215 42,024 71,343

201

7 - - - 3,788 6,271 42,399 71,979

201

8 - - - 3,823 6,329 42,794 72,651

201

9 - - - 3,858 6,388 43,189 73,321

202

0 - - - 3,895 6,448 43,599 74,016

202

1 - - - 3,928 6,502 43,963 74,635

202

2 - - - 3,955 6,548 44,271 75,158

202

3 - - - 3,985 6,597 44,605 75,724

202

4 - - - 4,016 6,648 44,948 76,307

202

5 - - - 4,044 6,696 45,272 76,857

202

6 - - - 4,072 6,741 45,579 77,378

202

7 - - - 4,099 6,786 45,887 77,901

202

8 - - - 4,128 6,833 46,202 78,436

202

9 - - - 4,157 6,883 46,536 79,004

203

0 - - - 4,191 6,938 46,908 79,635

203

1 - - - 4,223 6,991 47,269 80,247

203

2 - - - 4,252 7,040 47,598 80,806

203

3 - - - 4,279 7,085 47,903 81,323

203

4 - - - 4,309 7,133 48,228 81,876

203

5 - - - 4,335 7,177 48,525 82,379

203

6 - - - 4,365 7,227 48,862 82,953

203

7 - - - 4,396 7,277 49,203 83,530

203

8 - - - 4,426 7,328 49,545 84,111

203

9 - - - 4,457 7,379 49,890 84,697

204

0 - - - 4,488 7,430 50,237 85,286

### 12

204

1 - - - 4,519 7,482 50,586 85,880

204

2 - - - 4,551 7,534 50,938 86,477

204

3 - - - 4,582 7,586 51,293 87,079

204

4 - - - 4,614 7,639 51,650 87,685

204

5 - - - 4,646 7,692 52,009 88,295

### 13

Table 4.3 Estimated Amorphous Steel Demand for Medium-Voltage Dry-Type

Transformers (tons)

Total Base Case Total dTSL 1 Total dTSL 2 Total dTSL 3 Total dTSL 4 Total dTSL 5

2016

- - 1,304 11,876 13,404 20,524

2017

- - 1,316 11,981 13,523 20,707

2018

- - 1,328 12,093 13,650 20,900

2019

- - 1,340 12,205 13,776 21,093

2020

- - 1,353 12,321 13,906 21,293

2021

- - 1,364 12,423 14,022 21,470

2022

- - 1,374 12,511 14,121 21,621

2023

- - 1,384 12,605 14,227 21,784

2024

- - 1,395 12,702 14,337 21,952

2025

- - 1,405 12,793 14,440 22,110

2026

- - 1,414 12,880 14,538 22,260

2027

- - 1,424 12,967 14,636 22,410

2028

- - 1,434 13,056 14,737 22,564

2029

- - 1,444 13,151 14,843 22,727

2030

- - 1,456 13,256 14,962 22,909

2031

- - 1,467 13,358 15,077 23,085

2032

- - 1,477 13,451 15,182 23,246

2033

- - 1,486 13,537 15,279 23,395

2034

- - 1,497 13,629 15,383 23,554

2035

- - 1,506 13,713 15,477 23,698

2036

- - 1,516 13,808 15,585 23,863

2037

- - 1,527 13,904 15,694 24,029

2038

- - 1,537 14,001 15,803 24,197

2039

- - 1,548 14,098 15,913 24,365

2040

- - 1,559 14,196 16,024 24,535

2041

- - 1,570 14,295 16,135 24,705

2042

- - 1,581 14,395 16,247 24,877

2043

- - 1,592 14,495 16,360 25,050

2044

- - 1,603 14,596 16,474 25,225

2045

- - 1,614 14,697 16,589 25,400

### 14

4.2. Estimated H-0 DR core steel Demand

Table 4.4 Estimated H-0 DR Steel Demand for Liquid-Immersed Transformers (tons)

Total Base Case Total dTSL 1 Total dTSL 2 Total dTSL 3 Total dTSL 4 Total dTSL 5 Total dTSL 6

2016

- - - - - - -

2017

- - - - - - -

2018

- - - - - - -

2019

- - - - - - -

2020

- - - - - - -

2021

- - - - - - -

2022

- - - - - - -

2023

- - - - - - -

2024

- - - - - - -

2025

- - - - - - -

2026

- - - - - - -

2027

- - - - - - -

2028

- - - - - - -

2029

- - - - - - -

2030

- - - - - - -

2031

- - - - - - -

2032

- - - - - - -

2033

- - - - - - -

2034

- - - - - - -

2035

- - - - - - -

2036

- - - - - - -

2037

- - - - - - -

2038

- - - - - - -

2039

- - - - - - -

2040

- - - - - - -

2041

- - - - - - -

2042

- - - - - - -

2043

- - - - - - -

2044

- - - - - - -

2045

- - - - - - -

### 15

Table 4.5 Estimated H-0 DR Steel Demand for Low-Voltage Dry-Type Transformers

(ton s)

Total Base Case Total dTSL 1 Total dTSL 2 Total dTSL 3 Total dTSL 4 Total dTSL 5 Total dTSL 6

2016

- - - - 6

- -

2017

- - - - 6

- -

2018

- - - - 6

- -

2019

- - - - 6

- -

2020

- - - - 6

- -

2021

- - - - 6

- -

2022

- - - - 6

- -

2023

- - - - 6

- -

2024

- - - - 6

- -

2025

- - - - 6

- -

2026

- - - - 6

- -

2027

- - - - 7

- -

2028

- - - - 7

- -

2029

- - - - 7

- -

2030

- - - - 7

- -

2031

- - - - 7

- -

2032

- - - - 7

- -

2033

- - - - 7

- -

2034

- - - - 7

- -

2035

- - - - 7

- -

2036

- - - - 7

- -

2037

- - - - 7

- -

2038

- - - - 7

- -

2039

- - - - 7

- -

2040

- - - - 7

- -

2041

- - - - 7

- -

2042

- - - - 7

- -

2043

- - - - 7

- -

2044

- - - - 7

- -

2045

- - - - 7

- -

### 16

Table 4.6 Estimated H-0 DR Steel Demand for Medium-Voltage Dry-Type Transformers

(ton s)

Total Base Case Total dTSL 1 Total dTSL 2 Total dTSL 3 Total dTSL 4 Total dTSL 5 Total dTSL 6

2016 8,092 9,039 9,823 1,283 0

- -

2017 8,164 9,119 9,911 1,295 0

- -

2018 8,240 9,204 10,003 1,307 0

- -

2019 8,316 9,289 10,095 1,319 0

- -

2020 8,395 9,377 10,191 1,331 0

- -

2021 8,465 9,456 10,276 1,342 0

- -

2022 8,524 9,522 10,348 1,352 0

- -

2023 8,588 9,594 10,426 1,362 1

- -

2024 8,655 9,668 10,506 1,372 1

- -

2025 8,717 9,737 10,582 1,382 1

- -

2026 8,776 9,803 10,654 1,392 1

- -

2027 8,835 9,869 10,726 1,401 1

- -

2028 8,896 9,937 10,800 1,411 1

- -

2029 8,960 10,009 10,878 1,421 1

- -

2030 9,032 10,089 10,965 1,432 1

- -

2031 9,101 10,167 11,049 1,443 1

- -

2032 9,165 10,238 11,126 1,453 1

- -

2033 9,223 10,303 11,197 1,463 1

- -

2034 9,286 10,373 11,273 1,473 1

- -

2035 9,343 10,437 11,343 1,482 1

- -

2036 9,408 10,510 11,421 1,492 1

- -

2037 9,474 10,583 11,501 1,502 1

- -

2038 9,540 10,656 11,581 1,513 1

- -

2039 9,606 10,730 11,662 1,523 1

- -

2040 9,673 10,805 11,743 1,534 1

- -

2041 9,740 10,880 11,824 1,545 1

- -

2042 9,808 10,956 11,907 1,555 1

- -

2043 9,876 11,032 11,990 1,566 1

- -

2044 9,945 11,109 12,073 1,577 1

- -

2045 10,014 11,186 12,157 1,588 1

- -

### 17

4.3. Estimated ZDMH (mechanically-scribed core steel) Steel Demand

Table 4.7 Estimated ZDMH Steel Demand for Liquid-Immersed Transformers (tons)

Total Base Case Total dTSL 1 Total dTSL 2 Total dTSL 3 Total dTSL 4 Total dTSL 5 Total dTSL 6

2016 78,928 21,286 77

- - - -

2017 79,493 21,439 77

- - - -

2018 80,170 21,621 78

- - - -

2019 80,877 21,812 79

- - - -

2020 81,577 22,001 79

- - - -

2021 82,223 22,175 80

- - - -

2022 82,901 22,358 81

- - - -

2023 83,615 22,550 81

- - - -

2024 84,427 22,769 82

- - - -

2025 85,091 22,948 83

- - - -

2026 85,800 23,140 84

- - - -

2027 86,526 23,336 84

- - - -

2028 87,343 23,556 85

- - - -

2029 87,999 23,733 86

- - - -

2030 88,814 23,952 86

- - - -

2031 89,601 24,165 87

- - - -

2032 90,421 24,386 88

- - - -

2033 91,037 24,552 89

- - - -

2034 91,773 24,751 89

- - - -

2035 92,476 24,940 90

- - - -

2036 93,249 25,148 91

- - - -

2037 94,028 25,359 92

- - - -

2038 94,813 25,570 92

- - - -

2039 95,605 25,784 93

- - - -

2040 96,404 25,999 94

- - - -

2041 97,209 26,217 95

- - - -

2042 98,021 26,436 95

- - - -

2043 98,840 26,656 96

- - - -

2044 99,665 26,879 97

- - - -

2045 100,498 27,104 98

- - - -

### 18

Table 4.8 Estimated ZDMH Steel Demand for Low-Voltage Dry-Type Transformers (tons)

Total Base Case Total dTSL 1 Total dTSL 2 Total dTSL 3 Total dTSL 4 Total dTSL 5 Total dTSL 6

2016 22800 19280 16063 17782 14532 111 0

2017 23004 19452 16206 17940 14662 112 0

2018 23218 19634 16358 18108 14798 114 0

2019 23433 19815 16508 18275 14935 115 0

2020 23655 20003 16665 18448 15077 116 0

2021 23852 20170 16804 18602 15202 117 0

2022 24020 20311 16922 18733 15309 117 0

2023 24201 20464 17049 18874 15424 118 0

2024 24387 20622 17181 19019 15543 119 0

2025 24563 20770 17305 19156 15655 120 0

2026 24729 20911 17422 19286 15761 121 0

2027 24896 21052 17540 19416 15868 122 0

2028 25067 21197 17660 19550 15977 123 0

2029 25249 21350 17788 19691 16092 123 0

2030 25450 21521 17930 19848 16221 124 0

2031 25646 21687 18068 20001 16346 125 0

2032 25825 21838 18194 20140 16460 126 0

2033 25990 21977 18310 20269 16565 127 0

2034 26167 22127 18435 20407 16677 128 0

2035 26327 22263 18548 20533 16780 129 0

2036 26511 22418 18677 20675 16897 130 0

2037 26695 22574 18807 20819 17014 131 0

2038 26881 22731 18938 20964 17133 131 0

2039 27068 22889 19070 21110 17252 132 0

2040 27256 23048 19202 21257 17372 133 0

2041 27446 23209 19336 21405 17493 134 0

2042 27637 23370 19470 21554 17615 135 0

2043 27829 23533 19606 21704 17737 136 0

2044 28023 23696 19742 21855 17861 137 0

2045 28218 23861 19880 22007 17985 138 0

### 19

Table 4.9 Estimated ZDMH Steel Demand for Medium-Voltage Dry-Type Transformers

(ton s)

Total Base Case Total dTSL 1 Total dTSL 2 Total dTSL 3 Total dTSL 4 Total dTSL 5 Total dTSL 6

2016 192 136 127 0

- - -

2017 194 137 128 0

- - -

2018 195 138 129 0

- - -

2019 197 139 130 0

- - -

2020 199 141 132 0

- - -

2021 201 142 133 0

- - -

2022 202 143 134 0

- - -

2023 204 144 135 0

- - -

2024 205 145 136 0

- - -

2025 207 146 137 0

- - -

2026 208 147 138 0

- - -

2027 210 148 139 0

- - -

2028 211 149 139 0

- - -

2029 213 150 140 0

- - -

2030 214 151 142 0

- - -

2031 216 152 143 0

- - -

2032 217 154 144 0

- - -

2033 219 154 145 0

- - -

2034 220 156 146 0

- - -

2035 222 156 146 0

- - -

2036 223 158 148 0

- - -

2037 225 159 149 0

- - -

2038 226 160 150 0

- - -

2039 228 161 151 0

- - -

2040 229 162 152 0

- - -

2041 231 163 153 0

- - -

2042 233 164 154 0

- - -

2043 234 165 155 0

- - -

2044 236 167 156 0

- - -

2045 238 168 157 0

- - -

### 20

4.4. Estimated M2 Steel Demand

Table 4.10 Estimated M2 Steel Demand for Liquid-Immersed Transformers (tons)

Total Base Case Total dTSL 1 Total dTSL 2 Total dTSL 3 Total dTSL 4 Total dTSL 5 Total dTSL 6

2016 1,389 40

- - - - -

2017 1,399 40

- - - - -

2018 1,411 41

- - - - -

2019 1,423 41

- - - - -

2020 1,435 41

- - - - -

2021 1,447 42

- - - - -

2022 1,459 42

- - - - -

2023 1,471 42

- - - - -

2024 1,486 43

- - - - -

2025 1,497 43

- - - - -

2026 1,510 43

- - - - -

2027 1,523 44

- - - - -

2028 1,537 44

- - - - -

2029 1,548 45

- - - - -

2030 1,563 45

- - - - -

2031 1,577 45

- - - - -

2032 1,591 46

- - - - -

2033 1,602 46

- - - - -

2034 1,615 46

- - - - -

2035 1,627 47

- - - - -

2036 1,641 47

- - - - -

2037 1,655 48

- - - - -

2038 1,668 48

- - - - -

2039 1,682 48

- - - - -

2040 1,696 49

- - - - -

2041 1,711 49

- - - - -

2042 1,725 50

- - - - -

2043 1,739 50

- - - - -

2044 1,754 50

- - - - -

2045 1,768 51

- - - - -

### 21

Table 4.11 Estimated M2 Steel Demand for Low-Voltage Dry-Type Transformers (tons)

Total Base Case Total dTSL 1 Total dTSL 2 Total dTSL 3 Total dTSL 4 Total dTSL 5 Total dTSL 6

2016

- - - - - - -

2017

- - - - - - -

2018

- - - - - - -

2019

- - - - - - -

2020

- - - - - - -

2021

- - - - - - -

2022

- - - - - - -

2023

- - - - - - -

2024

- - - - - - -

2025

- - - - - - -

2026

- - - - - - -

2027

- - - - - - -

2028

- - - - - - -

2029

- - - - - - -

2030

- - - - - - -

2031

- - - - - - -

2032

- - - - - - -

2033

- - - - - - -

2034

- - - - - - -

2035

- - - - - - -

2036

- - - - - - -

2037

- - - - - - -

2038

- - - - - - -

2039

- - - - - - -

2040

- - - - - - -

2041

- - - - - - -

2042

- - - - - - -

2043

- - - - - - -

2044

- - - - - - -

2045

- - - - - - -

### 22

Table 4.1 2 Estimated M2 Steel Demand for Medium-Voltage Dry-Type Transformers

(tons)

Total Base Case Total dTSL 1 Total dTSL 2 Total dTSL 3 Total dTSL 4 Total dTSL 5 Total dTSL 6

2016

- - - - - - -

2017

- - - - - - -

2018

- - - - - - -

2019

- - - - - - -

2020

- - - - - - -

2021

- - - - - - -

2022

- - - - - - -

2023

- - - - - - -

2024

- - - - - - -

2025

- - - - - - -

2026

- - - - - - -

2027

- - - - - - -

2028

- - - - - - -

2029

- - - - - - -

2030

- - - - - - -

2031

- - - - - - -

2032

- - - - - - -

2033

- - - - - - -

2034

- - - - - - -

2035

- - - - - - -

2036

- - - - - - -

2037

- - - - - - -

2038

- - - - - - -

2039

- - - - - - -

2040

- - - - - - -

2041

- - - - - - -

2042

- - - - - - -

2043

- - - - - - -

2044

- - - - - - -

2045

- - - - - - -

### 23

4.5. Estimated M3 Steel Demand

Table 4.13 Estimated M3 Steel Demand for Liquid-Immersed Transformers (tons)

Total Base Case Total dTSL 1 Total dTSL 2 Total dTSL 3 Total dTSL 4 Total dTSL 5 Total dTSL 6

2016 16,214 15,366

- - - - -

2017 16,330 15,476

- - - - -

2018 16,469 15,608

- - - - -

2019 16,614 15,746

- - - - -

2020 16,758 15,882

- - - - -

2021 16,891 16,008

- - - - -

2022 17,030 16,140

- - - - -

2023 17,177 16,279

- - - - -

2024 17,344 16,437

- - - - -

2025 17,480 16,566

- - - - -

2026 17,626 16,704

- - - - -

2027 17,775 16,846

- - - - -

2028 17,943 17,005

- - - - -

2029 18,077 17,132

- - - - -

2030 18,245 17,291

- - - - -

2031 18,407 17,444

- - - - -

2032 18,575 17,604

- - - - -

2033 18,702 17,724

- - - - -

2034 18,853 17,867

- - - - -

2035 18,997 18,004

- - - - -

2036 19,156 18,154

- - - - -

2037 19,316 18,306

- - - - -

2038 19,477 18,459

- - - - -

2039 19,640 18,613

- - - - -

2040 19,804 18,769

- - - - -

2041 19,970 18,925

- - - - -

2042 20,136 19,083

- - - - -

2043 20,305 19,243

- - - - -

2044 20,474 19,404

- - - - -

2045 20,645 19,566

- - - - -

### 24

Table 4.14 Estimated M3 Steel Demand for Low-Voltage Dry-Type Transformers (tons)

Total Base Case Total dTSL 1 Total dTSL 2 Total dTSL 3 Total dTSL 4 Total dTSL 5 Total dTSL 6

2016 7,334 750 2,919 1

- - -

2017 7,400 757 2,945 1

- - -

2018 7,469 764 2,972 1

- - -

2019 7,538 771 3,000 1

- - -

2020 7,609 778 3,028 1

- - -

2021 7,673 785 3,054 1

- - -

2022 7,726 790 3,075 1

- - -

2023 7,785 796 3,098 1

- - -

2024 7,845 802 3,122 1

- - -

2025 7,901 808 3,145 1

- - -

2026 7,955 813 3,166 1

- - -

2027 8,008 819 3,187 1

- - -

2028 8,063 825 3,209 1

- - -

2029 8,122 831 3,232 1

- - -

2030 8,187 837 3,258 1

- - -

2031 8,250 844 3,283 1

- - -

2032 8,307 849 3,306 1

- - -

2033 8,360 855 3,327 1

- - -

2034 8,417 861 3,350 1

- - -

2035 8,469 866 3,370 1

- - -

2036 8,528 872 3,394 1

- - -

2037 8,587 878 3,418 1

- - -

2038 8,647 884 3,441 1

- - -

2039 8,707 890 3,465 1

- - -

2040 8,768 897 3,489 1

- - -

2041 8,829 903 3,514 1

- - -

2042 8,890 909 3,538 1

- - -

2043 8,952 915 3,563 1

- - -

2044 9,014 922 3,588 1

- - -

2045 9,077 928 3,612 1

- - -

### 25

Table 4.15 Estimated M3 Steel Demand for Medium-Voltage Dry-Type Transformers

(tons)

Total Base Case Total dTSL 1 Total dTSL 2 Total dTSL 3 Total dTSL 4 Total dTSL 5 Total dTSL 6

2016 2,062 1,210 215 0

- - -

2017 2,080 1,221 217 0

- - -

2018 2,100 1,232 219 0

- - -

2019 2,119 1,243 221 0

- - -

2020 2,139 1,255 223 0

- - -

2021 2,157 1,266 225 0

- - -

2022 2,172 1,275 226 0

- - -

2023 2,188 1,284 228 0

- - -

2024 2,205 1,294 230 0

- - -

2025 2,221 1,303 232 0

- - -

2026 2,236 1,312 233 0

- - -

2027 2,251 1,321 235 0

- - -

2028 2,267 1,330 236 0

- - -

2029 2,283 1,340 238 0

- - -

2030 2,301 1,350 240 0

- - -

2031 2,319 1,361 242 0

- - -

2032 2,335 1,370 243 0

- - -

2033 2,350 1,379 245 0

- - -

2034 2,366 1,388 247 0

- - -

2035 2,381 1,397 248 0

- - -

2036 2,397 1,407 250 0

- - -

2037 2,414 1,416 252 0

- - -

2038 2,431 1,426 253 0

- - -

2039 2,448 1,436 255 0

- - -

2040 2,465 1,446 257 0

- - -

2041 2,482 1,456 259 0

- - -

2042 2,499 1,466 261 0

- - -

2043 2,516 1,477 262 0

- - -

2044 2,534 1,487 264 0

- - -

2045 2,552 1,497 266 0

- - -