DOE/EA-1530

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR TODAY'S ENERGY

CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL

FURNACES AND BOILERS

September 2007

U.S. Department of Energy

Assistant Secretary

Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy

Building Technologies Program

Appliances and Commercial Equipment Standards

Washington, DC 20585

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

DOE/EA-1530 

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR TODAY'S ENERGY 

CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL 

FURNACES AND BOILERS 

September 2007 

u.S. Department of Energy 

Assistant Secretary 

Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy 

Building Technologies Program 

Appliances and Commercial Equipment Standards 

Washington, DC 20585 
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR TODAY'S ENERGY CONSERVATION

STANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................... EA-1

2.0 PURPOSE ........................................................ EA-2

3.0 ALTERNATIVES INCLUDING TODAY'S ACTION ...................... EA-2

3.1 No-Action Alternative .......................................... EA-2

3.2 Today's Action ................................................ EA-3

3.3 Alternative Standards ........................................... EA-3

4.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT .................... EA-4

4.1 Geography ................................................... EA-4

4.2 Air Resources ................................................. EA-4

4.2.1 Assumptions ............................................ EA-5

4.2.2 Methods ............................................... EA-6

4.3 Socioeconomics ............................................... EA-7

4.4 Environmental Justice .......................................... EA-8

4.5 Energy Consumption ........................................... EA-8

4.6 Noise and Aesthetics ........................................... EA-8

5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ........................................ EA-8

5.1 Air Quality/Emissions Impacts ................................... EA-8

5.1.1 Power Sector and Household Emissions ...................... EA-8

5.1.2 Fuel-Cycle Emissions ................................... EA-24

5.2 Wetlands / Endangered and Threatened Species / Cultural Resources .... EA-25

5.3 Socioeconomic Impacts ........................................ EA-25

5.4 Environmental Justice Impacts .................................. EA-25

5.5 Energy Consumption Impacts ................................... EA-26

5.6 Noise and Aesthetics .......................................... EA-26

5.7 Summary of Environmental Impacts .............................. EA-26

LIST OF TABLES

Table EA.1 Current Energy Efficiency Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces

and Boilers ................................................... EA-2

Table EA.2 Today's Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers ........... EA-3

Table EA.3 Trial Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers ............. EA-4

Table EA.4 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast ......................... EA-10

Table EA.5 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast (High Growth) ............. EA-11

Table EA.6 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast (Low Growth) ............. EA-12

Table EA.7 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast , Relative to the Base Case ...... EA-13

Table EA.8 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast , Relative to the Base Case

(High Growth) ............................................... EA-14

Table EA.9 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

EA-i

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR TODAY'S ENERGY CONSERVATION 

STANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1.0 INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. EA-l 

2.0 PURPOSE ........................................................ EA-2 

3.0 ALTERNATIVES INCLUDING TODAY'S ACTION ...................... EA-2 

3.1 No-Action Alternative .......................................... EA-2 

3.2 Today's Action ................................................ EA-3 

3.3 Alternative Standards ........................................... EA-3 

4.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT .................... EA-4 

4.1 Geography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. EA-4 

4.2 Air Resources ................................................. EA-4 

4.2.1 Assumptions............................................ EA-5 

4.2.2 Methods............................................... EA-6 

4.3 Socioeconomics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. EA-7 

4.4 Environmental Justice .......................................... EA-8 

4.5 Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. EA-8 

4.6 Noise and Aesthetics ........................................... EA-8 

5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ........................................ EA-8 

5.1 Air Quality/Emissions Impacts ................................... EA-8 

5.1.1 Power Sector and Household Emissions ...................... EA-8 

5.1.2 Fuel-Cycle Emissions ................................... EA-24 

5.2 Wetlands / Endangered and Threatened Species / Cultural Resources .... EA-25 

5.3 Socioeconomic Impacts ........................................ EA-25 

5.4 Environmental Justice Impacts .................................. EA-25 

5.5 Energy Consumption Impacts ................................... EA-26 

5.6 Noise and Aesthetics .......................................... EA-26 

5.7 Summary of Environmental Impacts .............................. EA-26 

Table EA.l 

Table EA.2 

Table EA.3 

Table EA.4 

Table EA.5 

Table EA.6 

Table EA.7 

Table EA.8 

Table EA.9 

LIST OF TABLES 

Current Energy Efficiency Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces 

and Boilers ................................................... EA-2 

Today's Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers ........... EA-3 

Trial Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers ............. EA-4 

Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast ......................... EA-I0 

Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast (High Growth) ............. EA-ll 

Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast (Low Growth) ............. EA-12 

Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case ...... EA-13 

Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case 

(High Growth) ............................................... EA-14 

Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case 

EA-i 
(Low Growth) ............................................... EA-15

Table EA.10 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast , Relative to the

Base Case ................................................... EA-16

Table EA.11 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the

Base Case (High Growth) ...................................... EA-16

Table EA.12 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the

Base Case (Low Growth) ....................................... EA-17

Table EA.13 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast , Relative to the

Base Case ................................................... EA-17

Table EA.14 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the

Base Case (High Growth) ...................................... EA-18

Table EA.15 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the

Base Case (Low Growth) ....................................... EA-19

Table EA.16 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast,

Relative to the Base Case ....................................... EA-20

Table EA.17 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast,

Table EA.18

Relative to the Base Case (High Growth ) .......................... EA-21

Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast,

Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth) .......................... EA-22

Table EA.19 Discounted Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions

Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case ........................ EA-23

Table EA.20 Estimated Upstream Emission Factors and Relative Percentages to

Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions ......................... EA-24

Table EA.21 Cumulative Energy Savings from Residential Furnaces and

Table EA.22

Boilers Standards from 2015 to 2038 ............................. EA-26

Summary of the Analysis Results ................................ EA-27

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

(Low Growth) ............................................... EA-15 

Table EA.10 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the 

Base Case ................................................... EA-16 

Table EA.ll Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the 

Base Case (High Growth) ...................................... EA-16 

Table EA.12 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the 

Base Case (Low Growth) ....................................... EA-17 

Table EA.13 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the 

Base Case ................................................... EA-17 

Table EA.14 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the 

Base Case (High Growth) ...................................... EA-18 

Table EA.15 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the 

Base Case (Low Growth) ....................................... EA-19 

Table EA.16 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, 

Relative to the Base Case ....................................... EA-20 

Table EA.17 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, 

Relative to the Base Case (High Growth) .......................... EA-2l 

Table EA.18 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, 

Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth) .......................... EA-22 

Table EA.19 Discounted Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions 

Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case ........................ EA-23 

Table EA.20 Estimated Upstream Emission Factors and Relative Percentages to 

Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions ......................... EA-24 

Table EA.21 Cumulative Energy Savings from Residential Furnaces and 

Boilers Standards from 2015 to 2038 ............................. EA-26 

Table EA.22 Summary of the Analysis Results ................................ EA-27 

EA-ii 
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AEO: Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/ETA publication

ANOPR: advance notice of proposed rulemaking

ASIIRAE: American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc.

BT: DOE's Building Technologies program

Btu: British thermal unit

CO2: carbon dioxide

DOE: Department of Energy

EA: Environmental Assessment

ETA: Energy Information Administration

EJ: exajoule (101$ joules)

EPA: Environmental Protection Agency

SPCA: Energy Policy and Conservation Act: Part B of Title III of the Energy Policy and

Conservation Act, Public Law 94-163, as amended by the National Energy Conservation Policy

Act, Public Law 95-619, the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act, Public Law 100-12,

the National Appliance Energy Conservation Amendments of 1988, Public Law 100-357, and

the Energy Policy Act of 1992, Public Law 102-486

FR: Federal Register

GJ: gigajoule (109 joules)

GW: gigawatt (109 watts)

kt/a: kilo (thousand) metric tons per annum (year)

kWh: kilowatt-hour (thousand watts per hour)

LCC: life-cycle cost

Mt/a: million metric tons per annum (year)

EA-iii

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 

AEO: Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA publication 

ANOPR: advance notice of proposed rulemaking 

ASHRAE: American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc. 

BT: DOE's Building Technologies program 

Btu: British thermal unit 

CO2 : carbon dioxide 

DOE: Department of Energy 

EA: Environmental Assessment 

EIA: Energy Information Administration 

EJ: exajoule (l018 joules) 

EPA: Environmental Protection Agency 

EPCA: Energy Policy and Conservation Act: Part B of Title III of the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act, Public Law 94-163, as amended by the National Energy Conservation Policy 

Act, Public Law 95-619, the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act, Public Law 100-12, 

the National Appliance Energy Conservation Amendments of 1988, Public Law 100-357, and 

the Energy Policy Act of 1992, Public Law 102-486 

FR: Federal Register 

GJ: gigajoule (l09 joules) 

GW: gigawatt (109 watts) 

kt/a: kilo (thousand) metric tons per annum (year) 

kWh: kilowatt-hour (thousand watts per hour) 

LCC: life-cycle cost 

Mt/a: million metric tons per annum (year) 

EA-iii 
MW: megawatt (million watts)

NAECA: National Appliance Energy Conservation Act

NEMS: National Energy Modeling System

NEPA: National Environmental Policy Act of 1969

NES: national energy savings

NON: nitrogen oxides

PBP: payback period

quad: quadrillion Btu (1015 Btus)

RIA: regulatory impact analysis

SO2: sulfur dioxide

t: metric ton

TSL: trial standard level

TSD: technical support document

U.S.C.: United States Code

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

MW: megawatt (million watts) 

NAECA: National Appliance Energy Conservation Act 

NEMS: National Energy Modeling System 

NEPA: National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 

NES: national energy savings 

NOx : nitrogen oxides 

PBP: payback period 

quad: quadrillion Btu (10 15 Btus) 

RIA: regulatory impact analysis 

S02: sulfur dioxide 

t: metric ton 

TSL: trial standard level 

TSD: technical support document 

U.S.C.: United States Code 

EA-iv 
ENVIRONMENTAL. ASSESSMENT FOR RESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS

1.0 INTRODUCTION

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) prepared this residential furnace and boiler

environmental assessment (EA) pursuant to the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969

(NEPA)(42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.), the regulations of the Council on Environmental Quality (40

CFR parts 1500- 1508), and DOE's regulations for compliance with NEPA ( 10 CFR part 1021).

Title III of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) sets forth a variety of

provisions designed to improve energy efficiency. Part B of title III (42 U.S.C 6291-6309)

provides for the Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products other than Automobiles.

The program covers consumer products and certain commercial products (referred to hereafter as

"covered products"), including residential furnaces and boilers.

EPCA authorizes DOE to prescribe new or amended standards for residential furnaces

and boilers (42 U.S.C 6292(a)(f)) and provides criteria for prescribing new or amended standards

for covered products. Any new or amended standard for a covered product must be designed to

achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and

economically justified. (42 U.S.C 6295(o)(2)(A)) EPCA precludes DOE from adopting any

standard that would not result in significant conservation of energy . (42 U.S.C 6295(o)(3))

On June 13, 2001, DOE published a Framework Document for Residential Furnaces and

Boilers Standards Rulemaking` that described the procedural and analytical approaches available

to evaluate energy conservation standards for residential furnaces and boilers. DOE held a

Framework Workshop on July 17, 2001 , to discuss the procedural and analytical approaches for

use in this rulemaking, to inform and facilitate stakeholders ' involvement in the rulemaking

process, and to seek their comments on the Framework Document. On July 29, 2004, after

considering the stakeholder comments about the technical analysis, DOE published in the

Federal Register an advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANOPR) to solicit public comments

on its preliminary analyses concerning energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and

boilers. 69 FR 45419. DOE held a public meeting on September 29, 2004, to present the

methodology and results of the ANOPR analyses, and to solicit oral comments from the

stakeholders in attendance . On October 6, 2006, DOE published in the Federal Register a notice

of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) to solicit public comments on its analyses concerning energy

efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers. 71 FR 59203. DOE held a public

meeting on October 30 , 2006, to present today's standards for residential furnaces and boilers.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR RESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS 

1.0 INTRODUCTION 

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) prepared this residential furnace and boiler 

environmental assessment (EA) pursuant to the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 

(NEPA)(42 U.S.c. 4321 et seq.), the regulations of the Council on Environmental Quality (40 

CFR parts 1500-1508), and DOE's regulations for compliance with NEPA (10 CFR part 1021). 

Title III of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) sets forth a variety of 

provisions designed to improve energy efficiency. Part B of title III (42 U.S.C 6291-6309) 

provides for the Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products other than Automobiles. 

The program covers consumer products and certain commercial products (referred to hereafter as 

"covered products"), including residential furnaces and boilers. 

EPCA authorizes DOE to prescribe new or amended standards for residential furnaces 

and boilers (42 U.S.C 6292(a)(f)) and provides criteria for prescribing new or amended standards 

for covered products. Any new or amended standard for a covered product must be designed to 

achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and 

economically justified. (42 U.S.C 6295(0)(2)(A)) EPCA precludes DOE from adopting any 

standard that would not result in significant conservation of energy. (42 U.S.C 6295(0)(3)) 

On June 13,2001, DOE published a Framework Documentfor Residential Furnaces and 

Boilers Standards Rulemaking1 that described the procedural and analytical approaches available 

to evaluate energy conservation standards for residential furnaces and boilers. DOE held a 

Framework Workshop on July 17, 2001, to discuss the procedural and analytical approaches for 

use in this rulemaking, to inform and facilitate stakeholders' involvement in the rulemaking 

process, and to seek their comments on the Framework Document. On July 29,2004, after 

considering the stakeholder comments about the technical analysis, DOE published in the 

Federal Register an advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANOPR) to solicit public comments 

on its preliminary analyses concerning energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and 

boilers. 69 FR 45419. DOE held a public meeting on September 29,2004, to present the 

methodology and results of the ANOPR analyses, and to solicit oral comments from the 

stakeholders in attendance. On October 6, 2006, DOE published in the Federal Register a notice 

of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) to solicit public comments on its analyses concerning energy 

efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers. 71 FR 59203. DOE held a public 

meeting on October 30,2006, to present today's standards for residential furnaces and boilers. 

EA-I 
2.0 PURPOSE

Consistent with the EPCA requirements described in section 1.0, the purpose of today's

action is to reduce the energy consumption of residential furnaces and boilers in the United

States and its Territories. DOE exercises its discretion in deciding the level for a minimum

efficiency standard, not in deciding if there should be one.

More-stringent energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers will result

in energy savings. The metric used to measure the efficiency of residential furnaces and boilers

is the annual fuel utilization efficiency (AFUE). An increase in the AFUE indicates that the

furnace or boiler is more efficient. Details on the technical analysis of increased efficiency

levels are provided in the Residential Furnace and Boiler technical support document (TSD) that

accompanies DOE's final rule.'

3.0 ALTERNATIVES INCLUDING TODAY'S ACTION

DOE analyzed five alternative standards levels consisting of the five trial standard levels

(TSLs) identified in the NOPR and a no-action alternative. Today's action is to adopt TSL B.

The five alternatives are discussed below.

3.1 No-Action Alternative

Under a no-action alternative, DOE would not publish new minimum energy efficiency

standards for residential furnaces and boilers, and the efficiency standards would remain at

current levels (Table EA. 1). (42 U.S.C 6295(f)(1)) The current standards went into effect on

January 1, 1992, with the exception of the standard for mobile home furnaces, which went into

effect on September 1, 1990.

Table EA.1 Current Energy Efficiency Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and

Boilers

NWGF WGF MHF OF GB OB

AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE %

78 78 75 78 80 80

Product class list:

NWGF = non-weatherized gas furnace

WGF = weatherized gas furnace

MHF = mobile home gas furnace

OF = oil-fired furnace

GB = gas boiler

OB = oil-fired boiler

EA-2

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

2.0 PURPOSE 

Consistent with the EPCA requirements described in section 1.0, the purpose of today's 

action is to reduce the energy consumption of residential furnaces and boilers in the United 

States and its Territories. DOE exercises its discretion in deciding the level for a minimum 

efficiency standard, not in deciding if there should be one. 

More-stringent energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers will result 

in energy savings. The metric used to measure the efficiency of residential furnaces and boilers 

is the annual fuel utilization efficiency (AFUE). An increase in the AFUE indicates that the 

furnace or boiler is more efficient. Details on the technical analysis of increased efficiency 

levels are provided in the Residential Furnace and Boiler technical support document (TSD) that 

accompanies DOE's final rule. 2 

3.0 ALTERNATIVES INCLUDING TODAY'S ACTION 

DOE analyzed five alternative standards levels consisting of the five trial standard levels 

(TSLs) identified in the NOPR and a no-action alternative. Today's action is to adopt TSL B. 

The five alternatives are discussed below. 

3.1 No-Action Alternative 

Under a no-action alternative, DOE would not publish new minimum energy efficiency 

standards for residential furnaces and boilers, and the efficiency standards would remain at 

current levels (Table EA.1). (42 U.S.C 6295(f)(1)) The current standards went into effect on 

January 1, 1992, with the exception of the standard for mobile home furnaces, which went into 

effect on September 1, 1990. 

Table EA.1 Current Energy Efficiency Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and 

Boilers 

NWGF WGF 

AFUE% AFUE% 

78 78 

Product class lIst: 

NWGF = non-weatherized gas furnace 

WGF weatherized gas furnace 

MHF = mobile home gas furnace 

OF = oil-fired furnace 

GB = gas boiler 

OB = oil-fired boiler 

MHF 

AFUE% 

75 

OF GB OB 

AFUE% AFUE% AFUE% 

78 80 80 

EA-2 
The no-action alternative is contrary to the requirement to amend the statutory energy

efficiency standards to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency for residential

furnaces and boilers that DOE determines is technologically feasible and economically justified.

(42 U.S.C 6295(o)(2)(A)) Nevertheless, DOE addressed the no-action alternative, as well as

other non-regulatory policy cases and voluntary incentive programs, in the Residential Furnaces

and Boilers Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA). The RIA found that the no-action alternative

would result in lower reductions in energy consumption as compared to other alternatives,

including today's action.

3.2 Today's Action

Today's action is to adopt TSL B (see Table EA.2), which will result in national energy

savings, reduced average life-cycle costs (LCC) to consumers, a net national benefit (i.e.,

monetary savings to the Nation's consumers that exceed increased equipment costs), and airborne emissions reductions.

In analyzing improvements in the efficiency of residential furnaces and boilers, DOE

defined six TSLs. Each TSL consists of a combination of different AFUE levels applied to six

different product classes. Of the six TSLs, DOE is adopting TSL B. Table EA.2 summarizes

today's standard levels.

Table EA.2 Today's Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers

NWGF WGF MHF OF GB OB

AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE %

90 81 80 82 82 84

Product class list:

NWGF = non-weatherized gas furnace

WGF = weatherized gas furnace

MHF = mobile home gas fu nace

OF = oil-fired furnace

GB = gas boiler

OB = oil-fired boiler

3.3 Alternative Standards

This EA also examines five other TSLs besides the one chosen for today's action (TSL B)

and the no-action alternative. Each TSL is an alternative action, and is compared with the noaction alternative. The no-action alternative, also referred to as the base case, represents a

situation where no new amended standards are proposed. TSL 1, TSL A, and TSL 2 are less

stringent than today's action (TSL B), while TSL 4 and TSL 5 are more stringent than TSL B.

Each TSL has a unique combination of AFUE efficiency levels for each product class. The

TSLs, including today's action, are shown in Table EA.3.

EA-3

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

The no-action alternative is contrary to the requirement to amend the statutory energy 

efficiency standards to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency for residential 

furnaces and boilers that DOE determines is technologically feasible and economically justified. 

(42 U.S.C 6295(0)(2)(A)) Nevertheless, DOE addressed the no-action alternative, as well as 

other non-regulatory policy cases and voluntary incentive programs, in the Residential Furnaces 

and Boilers Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA). The RIA found that the no-action alternative 

would result in lower reductions in energy consumption as compared to other alternatives, 

including today's action. 

3.2 Today's Action 

Today's action is to adopt TSL B (see Table EA.2), which will result in national energy 

savings, reduced average life-cycle costs (LCC) to consumers, a net national benefit (i.e., 

monetary savings to the Nation's consumers that exceed increased equipment costs), and airborne emissions reductions. 

In analyzing improvements in the efficiency of residential furnaces and boilers, DOE 

defined six TSLs. Each TSL consists of a combination of different AFUE levels applied to six 

different product classes. Of the six TSLs, DOE is adopting TSL B. Table EA.2 summarizes 

today's standard levels. 

T a bi e EA . 2 T d ' o aYs St an d d L I ar eve s £ or R . d . I F eSI entia urnaces an dB 01 'I ers 

NWGF WGF 

AFUE% AFUE% 

90 81 

Product class list: 

NWGF = non-weatherized gas furnace 

WGF = weatherized gas furnace 

MHF = mobile home gas furnace 

OF = oil-fired furnace 

GB = gas boiler 

OB oil-fired boiler 

3.3 Alternative Standards 

MHF OF GB 

AFUE% AFUE% AFUE% 

80 82 82 

OB 

AFUE% 

84 

This EA also examines five other TSLs besides the one chosen for today's action (TSL B) 

and the no-action alternative. Each TSL is an alternative action, and is compared with the noaction alternative. The no-action alternative, also referred to as the base case, represents a 

situation where no new amended standards are proposed. TSL 1, TSL A, and TSL 2 are less 

stringent than today's action (TSL B), while TSL 4 and TSL 5 are more stringent than TSL B. 

Each TSL has a unique combination of AFUE efficiency levels for each product class. The 

TSLs, including today's action, are shown in Table EA.3. 

EA-3 
Table EA.3 Trial Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers

NWGF WGF MHF OF GB OB

Trial Standard

Levels AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE %

TSL 1 80 80 80 80 82 83

TSL A 80 81 80 82 82 83

TSL 2 81 81 80 82 84 83

TSL B 90 81 90 82 82 84

TSL 4 90 81 90 84 84 84

TSL 5 96 83 90 85 99 95

Product class list:

NWGF = non-weatherized gas furnace

WGF = weatherized gas furnace

MHF = mobile home gas furnace

OF = oil-fired furnace

GB = gas boiler

OB = oil-fired boiler

4.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT

4.1 Geography

The residential furnace and boiler standards that DOE is adopting today will apply to all

50 States and to United States territories.

4.2 Air Resources

To analyze the effect of proposed efficiency standards on air resources, DOE used a

variant of the DOE Energy Information Administration (DOE/EIA)'s National Energy Modeling

System (NEMS), called NEMS-BT (BT is DOE's Building Technologies Program).' The

environmental analysis is similar to the utility sector analysis described in Chapter 13 of the

Residential Furnace and Boiler TSD. Outputs of the environmental analysis are in a format

similar to the results of the DOE/EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AE02007).3

a The EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any

modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run

under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it as NEMS-BT.

NEMS-BT was previously called NEMS-BRS.

EA-4

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table EA.3 Trial Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers 

NWGF 

Trial Standard 

Levels AFUE% 

TSL 1 80 

TSLA 80 

TSL2 81 

TSLB 90 

TSL4 90 

TSL 5 96 

Product class lIst: 

NWGF = non-weatherized gas furnace 

WGF = weatherized gas furnace 

MHF mobile home gas furnace 

OF = oil-fired furnace 

GB = gas boiler 

OB oil-fired boiler 

WGF MHF OF 

AFUE% AFUE% AFUE% 

80 80 80 

81 80 82 

81 80 82 

81 90 82 

81 90 84 

83 90 85 

4.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT 

4.1 Geography 

GB 

AFUE% 

82 

82 

84 

82 

84 

99 

OB 

AFUE% 

83 

83 

83 

84 

84 

95 

The residential furnace and boiler standards that DOE is adopting today will apply to all 

50 States and to United States territories. 

4.2 Air Resources 

To analyze the effect of proposed efficiency standards on air resources, DOE used a 

variant of the DOE Energy Information Administration (DOE/EIA)'s National Energy Modeling 

System (NEMS), called NEMS-BT (BT is DOE's Building Technologies Program): The 

environmental analysis is similar to the utility sector analysis described in Chapter 13 of the 

Residential Furnace and Boiler TSD. Outputs of the environmental analysis are in a format 

similar to the results of the DOE/EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AE02007P 

a The EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any 

modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is nm 

under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it as NEMS-BT. 

NEMS-BT was previously called NEMS-BRS. 

EA-4 
For each TSL, DOE calculated total power sector emissions based on output from

NEMS-BT. It also calculated household emissions exogenous to NEMS-BT. The EA considers

two pollutants, nitrogen oxides (NOR) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), and one emission, carbon

dioxide (CO2). An air pollutant is any substance in the air that can cause harm to humans or the

environment. Pollutants may be natural or man-made and may take the form of solid particles,

liquid droplets, or gases. The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 list 188 toxic air pollutants

that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is required to control. The EPA has set

national air quality standards for six common pollutants (also referred to as "criteria " pollutants),

two of which are SO2 and NOR. Also, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 gave authority to

EPA to control acidification and required operators of electric power plants to reduce emissions

of SO2 and NOR. In addressing SO2 emissions, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 set an

SO2 emissions cap on all power generation, but permitted flexibility among generators through

the use of emissions allowances and tradable permits. The resulting SO2 trading implies that

physical emissions effects of a standard will be zero because emissions will always be at, or

near, the ceiling. Consequently, there is no physical SO2 environmental benefit from electricity

conservation as long as there is enforcement of the emissions ceiling.

4.2.1 Assumptions

DOE conducted the EA as a policy deviation from the Typical Meteorological Year

(TMY) System Load Reference Case, a modified AE02007 Reference Case, using the same

basic set of assumptions in NEMS. The emissions characteristics of all electricity-generating

plants are exactly as used in AE02007. The TMY System Load Reference Case and alternative

growth scenarios are as described in the utility impact analysis of the Residential Furnace and

Boiler TSD (Chapter 13).4 DOE derived the environmental impacts using the same higher

decrement approach described in the utility impact analysis.

As in the utility impact analysis, DOE substituted the default NEMS system load with a

system load that represents weather conditions for a TMY, which is here referred to as the TMY

system load. As a result, the reference case used to judge the impacts from today's residential

furnace and boiler standard is no longer an exact replication of the AEO2007 Reference Case and

is therefore referred to as the TMY System Load Reference Case.

The EA also includes a sensitivity analysis for each of the trial standard levels using the

High and Low Economic Growth scenarios of NEMS-BT. As described in Chapter 13 of the

TSD4 these scenarios cover a range of macroeconomic growth assumptions.

All environmental impact results include a 15 percent rebound effect , which is already

accounted for in the national energy savings inputs.

EA-5

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

For each TSL, DOE calculated total power sector emissions based on output from 

NEMS-BT. It also calculated household emissions exogenous to NEMS-BT. The EA considers 

two pollutants, nitrogen oxides (NOJ and sulfur dioxide (S02)' and one emission, carbon 

dioxide (C02), An air pollutant is any substance in the air that can cause harm to humans or the 

environment. Pollutants may be natural or man-made and may take the form of solid particles, 

liquid droplets, or gases. The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 list 188 toxic air pollutants 

that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is required to control. The EPA has set 

national air quality standards for six common pollutants (also referred to as "criteria" pollutants), 

two of which are S02 and NOx ' Also, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 gave authority to 

EPA to control acidification and required operators of electric power plants to reduce emissions 

of S02 and NOx ' In addressing S02 emissions, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 set an 

S02 emissions cap on all power generation, but permitted flexibility among generators through 

the use of emissions allowances and tradable permits. The resulting S02 trading implies that 

physical emissions effects of a standard will be zero because emissions will always be at, or 

near, the ceiling. Consequently, there is no physical S02 environmental benefit from electricity 

conservation as long as there is enforcement of the emissions ceiling. 

4.2.1 Assumptions 

DOE conducted the EA as a policy deviation from the Typical Meteorological Year 

(TMY) System Load Reference Case, a modified AE02007 Reference Case, using the same 

basic set of assumptions in NEMS. The emissions characteristics of all electricity-generating 

plants are exactly as used in AE02007. The TMY System Load Reference Case and alternative 

growth scenarios are as described in the utility impact analysis of the Residential Furnace and 

Boiler TSD (Chapter 13).4 DOE derived the environmental impacts using the same higher 

decrement approach described in the utility impact analysis. 

As in the utility impact analysis, DOE substituted the default NEMS system load with a 

system load that represents weather conditions for a TMY, which is here referred to as the TMY 

system load. As a result, the reference case used to judge the impacts from today's residential 

furnace and boiler standard is no longer an exact replication of the AE02007 Reference Case and 

is therefore referred to as the TMY System Load Reference Case. 

The EA also includes a sensitivity analysis for each of the trial standard levels using the 

High and Low Economic Growth scenarios ofNEMS-BT. As described in Chapter 13 of the 

TSD4 these scenarios cover a range of macroeconomic growth assumptions. 

All environmental impact results include a 15 percent rebound effect, which is already 

accounted for in the national energy savings inputs. 

EA-5 
4.2.2 Methods

Carbon Dioxide

NEMS-BT tracks CO2 emissions using a detailed CO2 module that features broad

coverage of all sectors and inclusion of interactive effects. Past experience with CO2 emissions

results from NEMS suggests that the estimated emissions reductions generated by NEMS are

somewhat lower than estimates based on simple average factors. One of the reasons for this

divergence is that NEMS tends to predict that energy conservation displaces more energyefficient generating capacity in the later years of its forecast.

Power Sector NOc

NEMS-BT estimates NO,, emissions from power generation by conforming to all current

legislation regarding the power facility development, retrofitting, and dispatch, including

potential installations of emissions-reducing equipment. On March 10, 2005, EPA issued the

Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) legislation. CAIR will permanently cap emissions of NOX

across 28 eastern States and the District of Columbia. 70 FR 25162 (May 12, 2005). As with the

SO2 emissions, a cap on NOX emissions will likely result in no emissions changes from

equipment efficiency standards in the affected States. Because the purpose of this EA is to

report estimated physical emissions effects, DOE does not report NOX emissions from the power

sector.

Power Sector SO2

As explained above, accurate simulation of SO2 trading tends to imply that physical

emissions effects will be zero, as long as emissions are at the ceiling. Therefore, DOE does not

reportSO2 results here.

Household Emissions

While NEMS-BT contains provisions for estimating emissions of NO, and SO2 from

power generation, it does not estimate household emissions. Because households use natural

gas, oil, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the residential sector also contributes to NOX and

SO2 emissions. This analysis therefore includes separate estimates of the effect of standards on

household NOX and SO2 emissions, based on simple emissions factors derived from the literature.

DOE reports household SO2 emissions savings, although they are small, because the SO2

emissions caps do not apply to the residential sector. Appendix W provides a detailed

description of the methodology and sources for deriving the emissions factors for combustion

processes in residential furnaces and boilers.

Fuel-Cycle Emissions

Fuel-cycle emissions refer to all the emissions associated with the energy used in the

upstream and downstream production of energy, including energy used at the power plant.

NEMS-BT does a thorough accounting of emissions at the power plant due to downstream

energy consumption, but does not account for upstream emissions (i.e., emissions from energy

use during coal and natural gas production). The upstream processes include the mining of coal

or extraction of natural gas, physical preparatory and cleaning processes, and transportation to

EA-6

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

4.2.2 Methods 

Carbon Dioxide 

NEMS-BT tracks CO2 emissions using a detailed CO2 module that features broad 

coverage of all sectors and inclusion of interactive effects. Past experience with CO2 emissions 

results from NEMS suggests that the estimated emissions reductions generated by NEMS are 

somewhat lower than estimates based on simple average factors. One of the reasons for this 

divergence is that NEMS tends to predict that energy conservation displaces more energyefficient generating capacity in the later years of its forecast. 

Power Sector NOx 

NEMS-BT estimates NOx emissions from power generation by conforming to all current 

legislation regarding the power facility development, retrofitting, and dispatch, including 

potential installations of emissions-reducing equipment. On March 10, 2005, EPA issued the 

Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) legislation. CAIR will permanently cap emissions of NO x 

across 28 eastern States and the District of Columbia. 70 FR 25162 (May 12,2005). As with the 

S02 emissions, a cap on NOx emissions will likely result in no emissions changes from 

equipment efficiency standards in the affected States. Because the purpose of this EA is to 

report estimated physical emissions effects, DOE does not report NOx emissions from the power 

sector. 

Power Sector S02 

As explained above, accurate simulation of S02 trading tends to imply that physical 

emissions effects will be zero, as long as emissions are at the ceiling. Therefore, DOE does not 

report S02 results here. 

Household Emissions 

While NEMS-BT contains provisions for estimating emissions of NO x and S02 from 

power generation, it does not estimate household emissions. Because households use natural 

gas, oil, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the residential sector also contributes to NOx and 

S02 emissions. This analysis therefore includes separate estimates of the effect of standards on 

household NOx and S02 emissions, based on simple emissions factors derived from the literature. 

DOE reports household S02 emissions savings, although they are small, because the S02 

emissions caps do not apply to the residential sector. Appendix W provides a detailed 

description of the methodology and sources for deriving the emissions factors for combustion 

processes in residential furnaces and boilers. 

Fuel-Cycle Emissions 

Fuel-cycle emissions refer to all the emissions associated with the energy used in the 

upstream and downstream production of energy, including energy used at the power plant. 

NEMS-BT does a thorough accounting of emissions at the power plant due to downstream 

energy consumption, but does not account for upstream emissions (i.e., emissions from energy 

use during coal and natural gas production). The upstream processes include the mining of coal 

or extraction of natural gas, physical preparatory and cleaning processes, and transportation to 

EA-6 
the power plant (see sub-section 5.1.2 for more information).

Interpolation

Because the energy savings from residential furnace and boiler standards are too small to

produce stable power sector results in NEMS-BT, DOE estimated results for the TSLs using

interpolation. This is similar to the process it used to estimate the utility impact analysis results.

Appendix U of the Residential Furnace and Boiler TSD describes the interpolation methodology

in detail.'

Extrapolation

The current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2030, yet other parts of the furnace and boiler

energy efficiency standards analysis extend to the year 2066. It is not feasible to extend the

forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis nor does DOE/EIA have an

approved method for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem

reasonable in general to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not

advisable because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied

by extrapolations of those outputs could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal

emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is

beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty.

Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simple replications of year 2030 results. While

these may seem unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be

consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the

regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the

extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain introduction are

included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are

shaded in grey to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results.

Discounting Emissions

DOE also calculated discounted avoided emissions results. DOE used the same discount

rates that it used in calculating the net present value (NPV)-seven percent and three percent

real -to calculate discounted cumulative emission reductions. The seven-percent and threepercent real discount rate values are meant to capture the present value of costs and benefits

associated with projects facing an average degree of risk. Other discount rates may be more

applicable to discount costs and benefits associated with projects facing different risks and

uncertainties.

4.3 Socioeconomics

As part of the rulemaking process, DOE evaluated the socioeconomic effects of standards

on senior and low-income households, subgroups that DOE identified as possibly being

disproportionately affected by a national standard level. DOE is especially concerned that

increases in the purchase price of equipment could have negative impacts on these groups that

may not be able to afford significant increases in equipment price. The analysis of consumer

subgroups included determining the differences in LCC as well as the payback periods for the

EA-7

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

the power plant (see sub-section 5.1.2 for more information). 

Interpolation 

Because the energy savings from residential furnace and boiler standards are too small to 

produce stable power sector results in NEMS-BT, DOE estimated results for the TSLs using 

interpolation. This is similar to the process it used to estimate the utility impact analysis results. 

Appendix U of the Residential Furnace and Boiler TSD describes the interpolation methodology 

in detail. 4 

Extrapolation 

The current time horizon ofNEMS-BT is 2030, yet other parts of the furnace and boiler 

energy efficiency standards analysis extend to the year 2066. It is not feasible to extend the 

forecast period ofNEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis nor does DOE/EIA have an 

approved method for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem 

reasonable in general to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not 

advisable because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied 

by extrapolations of those outputs could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal 

emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is 

beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. 

Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simple replications of year 2030 results. While 

these may seem unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be 

consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the 

regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the 

extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain introduction are 

included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are 

shaded in grey to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results. 

Discounting Emissions 

DOE also calculated discounted avoided emissions results. DOE used the same discount 

rates that it used in calculating the net present value (NPV)-seven percent and three percent 

real-to calculate discounted cumulative emission reductions. The seven-percent and threepercent real discount rate values are meant to capture the present value of costs and benefits 

associated with projects facing an average degree of risk. Other discount rates may be more 

applicable to discount costs and benefits associated with projects facing different risks and 

uncertainti es. 

4.3 Socioeconomics 

As part of the rulemaking process, DOE evaluated the socioeconomic effects of standards 

on senior and low-income households, subgroups that DOE identified as possibly being 

disproportionately affected by a national standard level. DOE is especially concerned that 

increases in the purchase price of equipment could have negative impacts on these groups that 

may not be able to afford significant increases in equipment price. The analysis of consumer 

subgroups included determining the differences in LCC as well as the payback periods for the 

EA-7 
four TSLs analyzed. Chapter 11 of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD provides more

details on the subgroup analysis.'

4.4 Environmental Justice

DOE considered environmental justice under Executive Order 12898, Federal Actions to

Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations. The

Executive Order requires Federal agencies to assess whether today's Federal action causes any

disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects on low-income or

minority populations. As mentioned above, DOE evaluated the socioeconomic effects of

standards on low-income households.

4.5 Energy Consumption

DOE used a detailed Shipments and National Energy Savings (NES) Spreadsheet Model

to determine NES as a result of increases in furnace and boiler efficiency standards. This

spreadsheet model forecasts the national shipments and energy use of residential furnaces and

boiler with and without new standards. The shipments and NES analyses are described in detail

in Chapters 9 and 10, respectively, of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4 The NES

results include a 15-percent rebound effect.

4.6 Noise and Aesthetics

DOE considered how amended energy conservation standards for residential furnaces

and boilers would affect the noise and aesthetics of the equipment. To improve the efficiency of

residential furnaces and boilers, some design changes can enlarge the size of the equipment or

necessitate the use of more-efficient motors and fans. DOE determined if these design changes

would affect noise and aesthetics .

5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

5.1 Air Quality/Emissions Impacts

5.1.1 Power Sector and Household Emissions

The results for the environmental analysis are similar to a complete NEMS run as

published in the AEO, and include power sector emissions for CO2 in five-year forecast

increments extrapolated to the year 2038. DOE reports the outcome of the analysis for each TSL

as a deviation from the TMY System Load Reference Case. This is also referred to as the base

case.

As discussed earlier in section 4.2, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 and the CAIR

legislation passed in 2005 set a NO, and SO2 emissions cap on all power generation, but

EA-8

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

four TSLs analyzed. Chapter 11 of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD provides more 

details on the subgroup analysis.4 

4.4 Environmental Justice 

DOE considered environmental justice under Executive Order 12898, Federal Actions to 

Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations. The 

Executive Order requires Federal agencies to assess whether today's Federal action causes any 

disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects on low-income or 

minority populations. As mentioned above, DOE evaluated the socioeconomic effects of 

standards on low-income households. 

4.5 Energy Consumption 

DOE used a detailed Shipments and National Energy Savings (NES) Spreadsheet Model 

to determine NES as a result of increases in furnace and boiler efficiency standards. This 

spreadsheet model forecasts the national shipments and energy use of residential furnaces and 

boiler with and without new standards. The shipments and NES analyses are described in detail 

in Chapters 9 and 10, respectively, of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4 The NES 

results include a IS-percent rebound effect. 

4.6 Noise and Aesthetics 

DOE considered how amended energy conservation standards for residential furnaces 

and boilers would affect the noise and aesthetics of the equipment. To improve the efficiency of 

residential furnaces and boilers, some design changes can enlarge the size of the equipment or 

necessitate the use of more-efficient motors and fans. DOE determined if these design changes 

would affect noise and aesthetics . 

5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS 

5.1 Air Quality/Emissions Impacts 

5.1.1 Power Sector and Household Emissions 

The results for the environmental analysis are similar to a complete NEMS run as 

published in the AEO, and include power sector emissions for CO2 in five-year forecast 

increments extrapolated to the year 2038. DOE reports the outcome of the analysis for each TSL 

as a deviation from the TMY System Load Reference Case. This is also referred to as the base 

case. 

As discussed earlier in section 4.2, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 and the CAIR 

legislation passed in 2005 set a NOx and S02 emissions cap on all power generation, but 

EA-8 
permitted flexibility among generators through the use of emissions allowances and tradable

permits. Moreover, NO,, and SO2 trading implies that physical emissions effects of a standard

will be zero because emissions will always be at, or near, the ceiling. Consequently, there is no

physical NO,, and SO2 environmental benefit from electricity conservation as long as the

emissions ceiling is binding. An economic benefit may result if generation falls and the resulting

reduced demand for NO,, and SO2 emission allowances lowers the allowance price. Because the

NOX and SO2 effects considered here are too small to provide reasonable estimates of impacts on

allowance prices, the environmental assessment does not attempt to estimate these benefits. (If

this price impact is big enough to be detectable in NEMS-BT, DOE will report this value in

future appliance standards rulemakings.) As a result, power sector emissions impacts are only

reported for CO2.

Tables EA.4-EA.6 show annual total power sector CO2 emissions for the base, high, and

low growth cases for each of the six TSLs. Tables EA.7-EA.9 show the annual results for the

household emissions. Tables EA.10-EA.12 show the cumulative power sector emissions

impacts from 2000 through 2030 and from 2015 through 2038 for CO2. The cumulative

emissions through 2038 increase from TSL 1 to TSL 5 due to a rise in electricity generation

resulting from a market shift from gas to electric heating equipment at the higher standard levels.

Tables EA. 13-EA. 15 show the cumulative household emissions impacts from 2000

through 2030 and from 2015 through 2038 for C02, NOR, and SO2. The emissions reductions

become larger from TSL 1 to TSL 5 due to the decline in fuel consumption at these standard

levels.

Tables EA. 16-EA.18 show the total cumulative emissions reductions from both the

power sector and households. The emissions reductions become larger from TSL 1 to TSL 5

because the decrease in household emissions outweighs the increase in power sector emissions.

Table EA. 19 shows the discounted cumulative emissions impacts from both the power

sector and households, using seven- and three-percent real discount rates.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

permitted flexibility among generators through the use of emissions allowances and tradable 

permits. Moreover, NOx and S02 trading implies that physical emissions effects of a standard 

will be zero because emissions will always be at, or near, the ceiling. Consequently, there is no 

physical NOx and S02 environmental benefit from electricity conservation as long as the 

emissions ceiling is binding. An economic benefit may result if generation falls and the resulting 

reduced demand for NOx and S02 emission allowances lowers the allowance price. Because the 

NOx and S02 effects considered here are too small to provide reasonable estimates of impacts on 

allowance prices, the environmental assessment does not attempt to estimate these benefits. (If 

this price impact is big enough to be detectable in NEMS-BT, DOE will report this value in 

future appliance standards rulemakings.) As a result, power sector emissions impacts are only 

reported for CO2, 

Tables EA.4-EA.6 show annual total power sector CO2 emissions for the base, high, and 

low growth cases for each of the six TSLs. Tables EA.7-EA.9 show the annual results for the 

household emissions. Tables EA.l 0-EA.12 show the cumulative power sector emissions 

impacts from 2000 through 2030 and from 2015 through 2038 for CO2, The cumulative 

emissions through 2038 increase from TSL 1 to TSL 5 due to a rise in electricity generation 

resulting from a market shift from gas to electric heating equipment at the higher standard levels. 

Tables EA.13-EA.15 show the cumulative household emissions impacts from 2000 

through 2030 and from 2015 through 2038 for CO2, NOx, and S02' The emissions reductions 

become larger from TSL 1 to TSL 5 due to the decline in fuel consumption at these standard 

levels. 

Tables EA.16-EA.18 show the total cumulative emissions reductions from both the 

power sector and households. The emissions reductions become larger from TSL 1 to TSL 5 

because the decrease in household emissions outweighs the increase in power sector emissions. 

Table EA.19 shows the discounted cumulative emissions impacts from both the power 

sector and households, using seven- and three-percent real discount rates. 

EA-9 
Table EA.4 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System

Load'

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

AE02007 Reference

Case with TMY

C02 (Mt/a)b,^ 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.0 2,855.0 3,095.0 3,353.0

Standard Level 1

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.0 2,854.9 3,095.1 3,353.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3

Standard Level A

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.0 2,854.9 3,095.2 3,353.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

Standard Level 2

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,677.9 2,854.7 3,095.4 3,353.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9

Standard Level B

CO2 Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,506.7 2,677.2 2,853.3 3,097.8 3,358.6 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 2.8 5.6 5.6 5.6

Standard Level 4

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,506.7 2,677.2 2,853.3 3,097.9 3,358.8 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 2.9 5.8 5.8 5.8

Standard Level 5

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0. 2,375.0. 2,506.4. 2,676.3 2,851.4 3,101.1 3,365.2 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -1.7 -3.6 6.1 12.2 12.2 12.2

Negative values correspond to emissions reductions

b Comparable to Table A17 of AE02007: Electric Generators

All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

T a bi e EA4 . P ower S t E .. ec or mISSIons I mpac t S F orecas t 

NEMS-BT Results 

2000 2005 2010 2015 

AE02007 Reference 

Case with TMY 

C02 (Mtla)b,c 2,279,0 2,375,0 2,507,0 2,678,0 

Standard Levell 

C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.0 

Standard Level A 

C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.0 

Standard Level 2 

C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,677.9 

Standard Level B 

C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,506.7 2,677.2 

Standard Level 4 

C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,506.7 2,677.2 

Standard Level 5 

C02 (Mt/a) 2279.0 2375.0 2506.4 2676.3 

a NegatIve values correspond to emISSIons reductIOns 

b Comparable to Table A17 of AE02007: Electric Generators 

C All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons 

EA-10 

2020 

2,855.0 

2,854.9 

2,854.9 

2,854.7 

2,853.3 

2,853.3 

2851.4 

2025 

3,095.0 

3,095.1 

3,095.2 

3,095.4 

3,097.8 

3,097.9 

3 lOLl 

Differeuce from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System 

Loada 

Extrapolation 

2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 

';J;(c<~~> I(Y~; 3,353.0 · ......... ,.s,k~i· W+(; 

3,353.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 ••••• 

(~)~<1 I~:o.~<\! 

3,353.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 (~~~\~ 1;,::0;3 I •• ··'·····.··,·. 

3,353.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.9 8~'6t9~/ l~ii~.§\c;\ 

!<~%~?~2.· I'~;\~i~';~ 3,358.6 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 2.8 5.6 1'1.'0:°1·····. 

3,358.8 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 2.9 5.8 it~\if~1< I~/~:~:;~ 

3365.2 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -1.7 -3.6 6.1 12.2 ~~~Yr»/Y ·t.l i&t i

' I~ir~~i! 
Table EA.5 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast (High Growth)

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System

Load'

Extra olation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

AE02007 Reference

Case with TMY

C02 (Mt/a)b°c 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.0 3,300.0 3,609.0

Standard Level 1

C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.2 3,300.5 3 609.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9

Standard Level A

C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.2 3,300.6 3,610.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1

Standard Level 2

C02 (Mt/a) 21279.0 21375.0 21531.0 21754.0 21993.6 3 301.5 3,611.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.9 2.9 2.9

Standard Level B

C02 (Mt/a) 2279.0 2375.0 2530.8 2754.0 2997.1 3309.9 3628.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 4.1 9.9 19.2 19.2 19.2

Standard Level 4

C02 (Mt/a) 21279.0. 21375.0 2 530.8 2,754.0 21997.2 3 310.2 3,628.7 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 4.2 10.2 19.7 19.7 19.7

Standard Level 5

C02 (Mt/a) 2279.0 2375.0 2530.5 2754.0 3002.0 3321.5 3650.7 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 9.0 21.5 41.7 41.7 41.7

1 Negative values correspond to emissions reductions

Comparable to Table A17 of AE02007: Electric Generators

` All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table EA.S Power Sector EmIssIons Impacts Forecast (High Growth) 

AE02007 Reference 

Case with TMY 

C02 (Mt/a)b,c 

Standard Levell 

C02 (Mt/a) 

Standard Level A 

C02 (Mt/a) 

Standard Level 2 

C02 (Mt/a) 

Standard Level B 

C02 (Mt/a) 

Standard Level 4 

C02 (Mt/a) 

Standard Level 5 

C02 (Mt/a) 

NEMS-BT Results 

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.0 3,300.0 3,609.0 

Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System 

Load" 

Extrapolation 

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 

2279.0 2375.0 2531.0 2754.0 2 993.2 3 300.5 3 609.9 0.0 

2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.2 3,300.6 3,610.1 0.0 

2279.0 2375.0 2531.0 2754.0 2993.6 3301.5 3611.9 0.0 

2279.0 2375.0 2530.8 2754.0 2997.1 3309.9 3628.2 0.0 

2279.0 2375.0 2530.8 2754.0 2997.2 3310.2 3628.7 0.0 

2279.0 2375.0 2530.5 2754.0 3002.0 3321.5 3650.7 0.0 

a Negative values correspond to emissions reductIOns 

b Comparable to Table Al7 of AE02007: Electric Generators 

c All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons 

EA-11 
Table EA.6 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast (Low Growth)

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System

Loada

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2 335 2038

AE02007 Reference

Case with TMY

C02 (Mt/a)'°° 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.0 2,610.0 2,722.0 2,877.0 3,019.0

Standard Level 1

C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.0 2,610.0 2,722.1 2,877.2 3,019.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4

Standard Level A

C02 (Mt/a) .2 ,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.0 2,610.0 2,722.1 2,877.2 3,019.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4

Standard Level 2

C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.0 2,610.0 2,722.3 2,877.7 3,020.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.2

Standard Level B

C02 (Mt/a) .2 ,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.1 2,610.3 2,724.2 2,881.3 3,026.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.2 4.3 7.6 7.6 7.6

Standard Level 4

C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.1 2,610.3 2,724.3 2,881.4 3,026.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3 4.4 7.8 7.8 7.8

Standard Level 5

C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0. 2,375.0 2,482.3 2,610.6. 2,726.9 2,886.4 _3,035.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 4.9 9.4 16.6 16.6 16.6

Negative values correspond to emissions reductions

n Comparable to Table A17 of AE02007: Electric Generators

All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table EA 6 Power Sector EmIssIons Impacts Forecast (Low Growth) 

AE02007 Reference 

Case with TMY 

C02 (Mt/a)b,c 

Standard Levell 

C02 (Mt/a) 

Standard Level A 

C02 (Mt/a) 

Standard Level 2 

C02 (Mt/a) 

Standard Level B 

C02 (Mt/a) 

Standard Level 4 

C02 (Mt/a) 

Standard Level 5 

C02 (Mt/a) 

NEMS-BT Results 

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

2279.0 2375.0 2482.0 2610.0 2722.0 2877.0 3019.0 

Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System 

Loada 

Extrapolation 

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 

2279.0 2375.0 2482.0 2610.0 2722.1 2877.2 3019.4 0.0 

2,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.0 2,610.0 2,722.3 2,877.7 3,020.2 0.0 

2279.0 2375.0 2482.1 2610.3 2724.2 2881.3 3026.6 0.0 0.0 

2,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.1 2,610.3 2,724.3 2,881.4 3,026.8 0.0 

2,279.0 2375.0 2482.3 2610.6 2726.9 2886.4 3 035.6 0.0 

a NegatIve values correspond to emISSIOns reductIOns 

b Comparable to Table A17 of AE02007: Electric Generators 

C All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons 

EA-12 
Table EA.7 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

AE02007 Standard Case Results'

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

TSL 1

CO NO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.36 -0.56 -0.56 -0.56

NOx (1d 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.30 -0.46 -0.46 -0.46

SO (1,,t 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

TSL A

CO, (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.24 -0.46 -0.70 -0.70 -0.70

NOx kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.38 -0.57 -0.57 -0.57

SO lct 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.08 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10

TSL 2

CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.58 -1.21 -1.85 -1.85 -1.85

NOx kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.48 -0.99 -1.51 -1.51 -1.51

SO Oct- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11

TSL B

CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.94 -8.18 -12.52 -12.52 -12.52

NOx lct 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.28 -6.79 -10.39 -10.39 -10.39

SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.27 -0.38 -0.38 -0.38

TSL 4

CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.06 -8.42 -12.89 -12.89 -12.89

NOx kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.38 -6.98 -10.68 -10.68 -10.68

SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.24 -0.46 -0.63 -0.63 -0.63

TSL 5

CO, (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -8.99 -18.76 -28.78 -28.78 -28.78

NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -7.38 -15.38 -23.59 -23.59 -23.59

SO kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.35 -2.74 -3.94 -3,94 -3.94

' Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table EA.7 

EA-13 
Table EA.8 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (High

Growth)

AE02007 Standard Case Resultsa

7T;;T

Extrapolation

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

TSL 1

CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.38 -0.59 -0.59 -0.59

NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.16 -0.31 -0.48 -0.48 -0.48

SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0760 0.00

TSL A

CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.49 -0.74 -0.74 -0.74

NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 -0.60 -0.60

SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.08 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11

TSL 2

CO NO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.62 -1.28 -1.97 -1.97 -1.97

NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.51 -1.04 -1.61 -1.61 -1,61

SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.09 -0.12 -0.12 -0.12

TSL B

CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.20 -8.70 -13.42 -13.42 -13.42

NOx kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.49 -7.22 -11.12 -11.12 -11.12

SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.28 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40

TSL 4

C02 NO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.32 -8.95 -13.80 -13.80 -13.80

NOx kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.59 -7.42 -11.43 -11.43 -11,43

SO kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.48 -0.65 -0.65 -0.65

TSL 5

CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.62 -20.02 -30.89 -30.89 -30.89

NOx kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -7.89 -16.41 -25.31 -25,31 -25.31

SO kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.42 -2.87 -4.15 -4.15 -4.15

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table EA.8 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (High 

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case 

EA-14 
Table EA.9 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (Low

Growth)

AE02007 Standard Case Resultsa

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

TSL 1

CO2(Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.18 -0.34 -0.51 -0.51 -0.51

NOx (kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.28 -0.42 -0.42 -0.42

SO kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

TSL A

CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.23 -0.43 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64

NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.35 -0.52 -0.52 -0.52

SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.08 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10

TSL 2

CO. NO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.55 -1.11 -1.67 -1.67 -1.67

NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.45 -0.91 -1.36 -1.36 -1.36

SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11

TSL B

CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.69 -7.47 -11.18 -11.18 -1 1'18

NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.08 -6.20 -9.26 -9.26 -9.26

SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.25 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34

TSL 4

CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.81 -7.70 -11.52 -11.52 -11.52

NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.17 -6.38 -9.53 -9.53 -9.53

SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.23 -0.44 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58

TSL 5

CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -8.38 -17.13 -25.80 -25.80 -25.80

NOx 1a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -6.88 -14.04 -21.13 -21.13 -21.13

SO kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.29 -2.57 -3.65 -3.65 -3.65

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table EA.9 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (Low 

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case 

EA-15 
Table EA.10 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

Cumulative Cumulative NEMS-BT Results 2000-2030 2015-2038

Standard Level 1

CO2 (Mt) 0.6 2.8

Standard Level A

CO2 (Mt) 0.7 3.4

Standard Level 2

CO2 (Mt) 2.1 9.3

Standard Level B

CO2 (Mt) 14.0 61.2

Standard Level 4

CO2 (Mt) 14.3 62.8

Standard Level 5

CO2 Mt 30.4 133.1

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

Table EA.11 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

Cumulative Cumulative NEMS-BT Resultsa

2000-2030 2015-2038

Standard Level 1

CO2 (Mt) 5.4 12.6

Standard Level A

CO2 (Mt) 6.6 15.3

Standard Level 2

CO2 (Mt) 17.6 41.2

Standard Level B

CO2 (Mt) 116.1 271.3

Standard Level 4

CO2 Mt 119.1 278.3

Standard Level 5

CO2 (Mt) 251.8 589.2

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

(High Growth)

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

T a bl e EA 10 C umu I a t' lve P ower S t E ' , ec or miSSIOns I mpac t s Forecast, Relative to the Base Case 

NEMS-BT Results· Cumulative Cumulative 

2000-2030 2015-2038 

Standard Levell 

C02 (Mt) 0.6 2.8 

Standard Level A 

C02 (Mt) 0.7 3.4 

Standard Level 2 

C02 (Mt) 2.1 9.3 

Standard Level B 

C02 (Mt) 14.0 61.2 

Standard Level 4 

C02 (Mt) 14.3 62.8 

Standard Level 5 

C02 (Mt) 30.4 l33.1 

• Negative values refer to a reductIOn compared to the Reference case 

Table EA,l1 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case 

(H' 19l h G row th) 

NEMS-BT Results· Cumulative Cumulative 

2000-2030 2015-2038 

Standard Levell 

C02 (Mt) 5.4 12.6 

Standard Level A 

C02 (Mt) 6.6 15.3 

Standard Level 2 

C02 (Mt) 17.6 41.2 

Standard Level B 

C02 (Mt) 116.1 271.3 

Standard Level 4 

C02 (Mt) 119.1 278.3 

Standard Level 5 

C02 (Mt) 251.8 589.2 

• NegatIve values refer to a reductIOn compared to the Reference case 

EA-16 
Table EA.12 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base

Case (Low Growth)

Cumulative Cumulative NEMS-BT Resultsa

2000-2030 2015-2038

Standard Level 1

C02 (Mt) 2.6 5.5

Standard Level A

CO2 (Mt) 3.2 6.7

Standard Level 2

CO2 (Mt) 8.6 17.9

Standard Level B

CO2 (Mt) 56.5 118.0

Standard Level 4

CO2 (Mt) 57.9 121.1

Standard Level 5

CO2 (Mt) 122.4 256.2

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

Table EA.13 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base

Case

Exogenous Resultsa

Cumulative

2000-2030

Cumulative

2015-2038

TSL 1

CO NO -4.4 -8.9

NOx (kt) -3.6 -7.3

SO, (kt) 0.0 0.0

TSL A

CO (Mt) -5.6 -11.2

NOx (kt) -4.6 -9.2

SO (kt) -1.0 -1.8

TSL 2

CO (Mt) -14.5 -29.2

NOx kt -11.8 -23.9

SO kt) -1.1 -2.0

TSL B

CO (Mt) -98.1 -198.3

NOx kt) -81.5 -164.6

SO (kt) -3.2 -6.2

TSL 4

CO NO -101.0 -204.1

NOx (kt) -83.8 -169.2

S0, (kt) -5.5 -10.5

TSL 5

CO (Mt -224.9 -455.1

NOx (kt) -184.4 -373.1

SO, (kt) -32.4 -63.9

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

EA-17

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table EA.12 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base 

Case (Low Growth) 

NEMS-BT Resultsa Cumulative Cumulative 

2000-2030 2015-2038 

Standard Levell 

C02 (Mt) 2.6 5.5 

Standard Level A 

C02 (Mt) 3.2 6.7 

Standard Level 2 

C02 (Mt) 8.6 17.9 

Standard Level B 

C02 (Mt) 56.5 118.0 

Standard Level 4 

C02 (Mt) 57.9 121.1 

Standard Level 5 

C02 (Mt) 122.4 256.2 

a Negative values refer to a reductlOn compared to the Reference case 

Table EA.13 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base 

Case 

Exogenous Resultsa Cumulative Cumulative 

2000-2030 2015-2038 

TSL 1 

CO? (Mt) -4.4 -8.9 

NOx (kt) -3.6 -7.3 

SO? (kt) 0.0 0.0 

TSLA 

CO? (Mt) -5.6 -11.2 

NOx (kt) -4.6 -9.2 

SO? (kt) -1.0 -1.8 

TSL2 

CO? (Mt) -14.5 -29.2 

NOx (kt) -11.8 -23.9 

SO? (kt) -1.1 -2.0 

TSLB 

CO? (Mt) -98.1 -198.3 

NOx (kt) -81.5 -164.6 

SO? (kt) -3.2 -6.2 

TSL4 

CO? (Mt) -101.0 -204.1 

NOx (kt) -83.8 -169.2 

SO? (kt) -5.5 -10.5 

TSL5 

CO? (Mt) -224.9 -455.1 

NOx (kt) -184.4 -373.1 

SO? (kt) -32.4 -63.9 

a NegatIve values refer to a reductlOn compared to the Reference case 

EA-17 
Table EA.14 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base

Exogenous Resultsa

Cumulative

2000-2030

Cumulative

2015-2038

TSL 1

CO NO -4.6 -9.4

NOx (kt) -3.8 -7.7

SO (kt) 0.0 0.0

TSL A

CO NO -5.9 -11.8

NOx (kt) -4.8 -9.6

SO kt) -1.0 -1.8

TSL 2

CO (Mt) -15.4 -31.1

NOx (lct -12.6 -25.4

SO kt) -1.1 -2.0

TSL B

CO Mt -104.6 -211.9

NOx (kt) -86.8 -175.8

SO (kt) -3.3 -6.5

TSL 4

CO Mt -107.6 -218.0

NOx (kt) -89.2 -180.6

SO kt -5.7 -10.9

TSL 5

CO NO -240.5 -487.6

NOx (kt) -197.1 -399.6

SO (kt) -34.0 -67.2

Case (High Growth)

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table EA.14 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base 

C ase (HO I~J h G row th) 

Exogenous Resultsa Cumulative Cumulative 

2000-2030 2015-2038 

TSL 1 

CO) (Mt) -4.6 -9.4 

NOx (kt) -3.8 -7.7 

S02 (kt) 0.0 0.0 

TSLA 

CO2 (Mt) -5.9 -11.8 

NOx (kt) -4.8 -9.6 

S02 (kt) -1.0 -1.8 

TSL2 

CO2 (Mt) -15.4 -31.1 

NOx (kt) -12.6 -25.4 

SO) (kt) -1.1 -2.0 

TSLB 

CO2 (Mt) -104.6 -211.9 

NOx (kt) -86.8 -175.8 

SO? (kt) -3.3 -6.5 

TSL4 

CO2 (Mt) -107.6 -218.0 

NOx (kt) -89.2 -180.6 

SO) (kt) -5.7 -10.9 

TSL5 

CO2 (Mt) -240.5 -487.6 

NOx (kt) -197.1 -399.6 

SO? (kt) -34.0 -67.2 

a Negative values refer to a reductIOn compared to the Reference case 

EA-18 
Table EA.15 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base

Case (Low Growth)

Exogenous Resultsa

Cumulative

2000-2030

Cumulative

2015-2038

TSL 1

CO2 (Mt) -4.1 -8.2

NOx (ict) -3.4 -6.7

SO (1ct) 0.0 0.0

TSL A

C02 NO -5.2 -10.3

NOx (kt) -4.3 -8.4

SO (kt) -0.9 -1.7

TSL 2

CO (Mt) -13.3 -26.7

NOx (kt) -10.9 -21.8

SO lct -1.0 -1.9

TSL B

CO (Mt) -89.4 -178.9

NOx (kt) -74.2 -148.3

SO (kt) -3.0 -5.7

TSL 4

CO NO -92.2 -184.4

NOx (kt) -76.4 -152.7

SO2 (kt) -5.2 -8.8

TSL 5

CO NO -205.0 -411.5

NOx (kt) -168.1 -337.1

SO lct -30.4 -59.6

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table EA.15 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base 

Case (Low Growth) 

Exogenous Results· Cumulative Cumulative 

2000-2030 2015-2038 

TSL 1 

CO? (Mt) -4.1 -8.2 

NOx (let) -3.4 -6.7 

S02 (let) 0.0 0.0 

TSLA 

CO? (Mt) -5.2 -10.3 

NOx (let) -4.3 -8.4 

S02 (let) -0.9 -1.7 

TSL2 

CO2 (Mt) -13.3 -26.7 

NOx (let) -10.9 -21.8 

SO? (let) -1.0 -1.9 

TSLB 

CO2 (Mt) -89.4 -178.9 

NOx (let) -74.2 -148.3 

SO? (let) -3.0 -5.7 

TSL4 

CO2 (Mt) -92.2 -184.4 

NOx (let) -76.4 -152.7 

SO? (let) -5.2 -8.8 

TSL5 

CO2 (Mt) -205.0 -411.5 

NOx (let) -168.1 -337.1 

SO? (1et) -30.4 -59.6 

a NegatIve values refer to a reductIOn compared to the Reference case 

EA-19 
Table EA.16 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast,

Relative to the Base Case

NEMS-BT plus

Exogenous Results'

Cumulative

2000-2030

Cumulative

2015-2038

TSL 1

CO NO -3.8 -6.1

NOx (kt) -3.6 -7.3

SO (kt) 0.0 0.0

TSL A

CO NO -4.9 -7.8

NOx (kt) -4.6 -9.2

SO kt -1.0 -1.8

TSL 2

CO NO -12.4 -20.0

NOx kt -11.8 -23.9

SO (kt) -1.1 -2.0

TSL B

CO (Mt) -84.1 -137.1

NOx kt -81.5 -164.6

SO (kt) -3.2 -6.2

TSL 4

CO NO -86.7 -141.3

NOx (kt) -83.8 -169.2

SO kt) -5.5 -10.5

TSL 5

CO (Mt) -194.4 -322.0

NOx (kt) -194.4 -373.1

SO (kt) -32.4 -63.9

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table EA.16 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, 

Relative to the Base Case 

NEMS-BT plus Cumulative Cumulative 

Exogenous Resultsa 2000-2030 2015-2038 

TSL 1 

CO2 (Mt) -3.8 -6.1 

NOx (kt) -3.6 -7.3 

SO:, (kt) 0.0 0.0 

TSLA 

CO2 (Mt) -4.9 -7.8 

NOx (kt) -4.6 -9.2 

SO? (kt) -1.0 -1.8 

TSL2 

CO2 (Mt) -12.4 -20.0 

NOx (kt) -11.8 -23.9 

SO? (kt) -1.1 -2.0 

TSLB 

CO? (Mt) -84.1 -137.1 

NOx (kt) -81.5 -164.6 

S02 (kt) -3.2 -6.2 

TSL4 

CO? (Mt) -86.7 -141.3 

NOx (kt) -83.8 -169.2 

S02 (kt) -5.5 -10.5 

TSL5 

CO? (Mt) -194.4 -322.0 

NOx (kt) -194.4 -373.1 

SO? (kt) -32.4 -63.9 

a NegatIve values refer to a reductIOn compared to the Reference case 

EA-20 
Table EA.17 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast,

NEMS-BT plus

Exogenous Results'

Cumulative

2000-2030

Cumulative

2015-2038

TSL 1

CO NO 0.7 3.2

NOx (kt) -3.8 -7.7

SO2 (kt) 0.0 0.0

TSL A

CO NO 0.7 3.5

NOx (kt) -4.8 -9.6

SO kt -1.0 -1.8

TSL 2

CO NO 2.2 10.1

NOx (kt) -12.6 -25.4

SO (kt) -1.1 -2.0

TSL B

CO Mt 11.5 59.4

NOx (kt) -86.8 -175.8

SO (kt) -3.3 -6.5

TSL 4

CO Mt 11.5 60.3

NOx kt -89.2 -180.6

SO (kt) -5.7 -10.9

TSL 5

CO (Mt) 11.4 101.6

NOx (kt) -197.1 -399.6

SO, (kt) -34.0 -67.2

Relative to the Base Case Hi h Growth)

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table EA.17 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, 

Relative to the Base Case { High Growth) 

NEMS-BT plus Cumulative Cumulative 

Exogenous Results' 2000-2030 2015-2038 

TSL 1 

CO2 (Mt) 0.7 3.2 

NOx (kt) -3.8 -7.7 

SO? (kt) 0.0 0.0 

TSLA 

CO2 (Mt) 0.7 3.5 

NOx (kt) -4.8 -9.6 

SO? (kt) -1.0 -1.8 

TSL2 

CO2 (Mt) 2.2 10.1 

NOx (kt) -12.6 -25.4 

SO? (kt) -1.1 -2.0 

TSLB 

CO? (Mt) 11.5 59.4 

NOx (kt) -86.8 -175.8 

S02 (kt) -3.3 -6.5 

TSL4 

CO? (Mt) 11.5 60.3 

NOx (kt) -89.2 -180.6 

S02 (kt) -5.7 -10.9 

TSL5 

CO? (Mt) 11.4 101.6 

NOx (kt) -197.1 -399.6 

SO? (kt) -34.0 -67.2 

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case 

EA-2l 
Table EA.18 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast,

NEMS-BT plus

Exogenous Results'

Cumulative

2000-2030

Cumulative

2015-2038

TSL 1

CO (Mt) -1.5 -2.7

NOx (kt) -3.4 -6.7

SO (kt) 0.0 0.0

TSL A

CO, (Mt) -2.0 -3.7

NOx (kt) -4.3 -8.4

SO (kt -0.9 -1.7

TSL 2

CO. NO -4.7 -8.7

NOx (kt) -10.9 -21.8

SO kt) -1.0 -1.9

TSL B

CO (Mt) -33.0 -60.8

NOx (kt) -74.2 -148.3

SO (kt -3.0 -5.7

TSL 4

CO (Mt) -34.3 -63.3

NOx (kt) -76.4 -152.7

SO lct -5.2 -9.8

TSL 5

CO, (Mt) -82.6 -155.3

NOx (kt) -168.1 -337.1

SO (kt) -30.4 -59.6

Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth)

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table EA.18 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, 

Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth) 

NEMS-BT plus Cumulative Cumulative 

Exogenous Results' 2000-2030 2015-2038 

TSL 1 

CO2 (Mt) -1.5 -2.7 

NOx (kt) -3.4 -6.7 

SO? (kt) 0.0 0.0 

TSLA 

CO? (Mt) -2.0 -3.7 

NOx (kt) -4.3 -8.4 

SO? (kt) -0.9 -1.7 

TSL2 

CO? (Mt) -4.7 -8.7 

NOx (kt) -10.9 -21.8 

S02 (kt) -1.0 -1.9 

TSLB 

CO? (Mt) -33.0 -60.8 

NOx (kt) -74.2 -148.3 

S02 (kt) -3.0 -5.7 

TSL4 

CO? (Mt) -34.3 -63.3 

NOx (kt) -76.4 -152.7 

S02 (kt) -5.2 -9.8 

TSL5 

CO? (Mt) -82.6 -155.3 

NOx (kt) -168.1 -337.1 

SO? (kt) -30.4 -59.6 

a NegatIve values refer to a reductIOn compared to the Reference case 

EA-22 
Table EA.19 Discounted Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts

Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

Cumulative 2015-2038

NEMS-BT plus 7%

Exogenous Resultsa (Not Discounted) Discount Rate

3%

Discount Rate

TSL 1

CO (Mt) -6.1 -1.6 -3.4

NOx kt -7.3 -1.7 -3.8

SO2 (kt) 0.0 0.0 0.0

TSL A

CO2 (Mt) -7.8 -2.1 -4.3

NOx (kt) -9.2 -2.1 -4.7

SO2 -1.8 -0.4 -0.9

TSL 2

CO (Mt) -20.0 -5.3 -10.9

NOx (kt) -23.9 -5.4 -12.3

SO2 (kt) -2.0 -0.5 -1.0

TSL B

CO2 NO -137.1 -36.2 -74.8

NOx (kt -164.6 -37.3 -84.5

SO (kt) -6.2 -1.4 -3.2

TSL 4

CO (Mt) -141.3 -37.3 -77.1

NOx (kt) -169.2 -38.3 -84.5

SO (kt) -10.5 -2.4 1 -5.4

TSL 5

CO (Mt) -322.0 -83.9 -174.9

NOx (kt) -373.1 -84.4 -191.5

SO, kt -63.9 -14.7 -33.0

Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table EA.19 Discounted Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts 

Forecast, Relative to the Base Case 

Cumulative 2015-2038 

NEMS-BT plus 7% 3% 

Exogenous Results' (Not Discounted) Discount Rate Discount Rate 

TSL 1 

CO? (Mt) -6.1 -1.6 -3.4 

NOx (let) -7.3 -1.7 -3.8 

S02 (let) 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSLA 

CO2 (Mt) -7.8 -2.1 -4.3 

NOx (let) -9.2 -2.1 -4.7 

SO? (let) -1.8 -0.4 -0.9 

TSL2 

CO2 (Mt) -20.0 -5.3 -10.9 

NOx (let) -23.9 -5.4 -12.3 

SO? (let) -2.0 -0.5 -1.0 

TSLB 

CO2 (Mt) -137.1 -36.2 -74.8 

NOx (let) -164.6 -37.3 -84.5 

SO? (let) -6.2 -1.4 -3.2 

TSL4 

CO2 (Mt) -141.3 -37.3 -77.1 

NOx (let) -169.2 -38.3 -84.5 

SO? (let) -10.5 -2.4 -5.4 

TSL5 

CO2 (Mt) -322.0 -83.9 -174.9 

NOx (let) -373.1 -84.4 -191.5 

SO? (let) -63.9 -14.7 -33.0 

a Negative values refer to a reductIOn compared to the Reference case 

EA-23 
5.1.2 Fuel-Cycle Emissions

As discussed earlier, fuel-cycle emissions refer to the emissions associated with the

amount of energy used in the upstream and downstream production of energy, including energy

used at the power plant. The amount of energy used to perform the upstream processes is not

directly linked to the downstream consumption of these fuels. For this reason, changes in

upstream emissions due to today's standards are not counted in NEMS-BT. Although DOE does

not report actual estimates of the effects of standards on upstream emissions, the emissions

factors described here provide the reader with a sense for the possible magnitude of the effects.

DOE took estimates of upstream emissions for CO2 and NO,, from a study conducted in

1993 by Mark A. DeLuchi (sometimes spelled DeLucci), Ph.D., at Argonne National

Laboratory.' DeLuchi provides estimates of full fuel-cycle emissions factors for C02, methane

(CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs), and NOX from coal

and natural gas production.' DOE took the emission factor for SO2 from the EPA Report, AP42, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors.6 The EPA AP-42 report notes that coal

cleaning is the primary source for upstream SO2 emissions from coal production, so the emission

factor for SO2 reflects only the coal-cleaning process. Transportation of coal is not addressed in

EPA's study.

Emission factor estimates and corresponding percentages of contributions of upstream

emissions from coal and natural gas production, relative to power plant emissions, are shown in

Table EA.20 for C02, SO2, and NOR. The percentage relative to power plant emissions provides

a means to estimate upstream emission savings based on the savings from the power plant. The

values shown in Table EA.20 represent emissions from upstream processes as mass in grams (g)

per deliverable energy in gigajoules (GJ) to end-use consumers.

Table EA.20 Estimated Upstream Emission Factors and Relative Percentages to Direct

Power Plant Combustion Emissions

Coal

Emission Factor

(g/GJ)

COZ

so,

NO,,

8,147

29.2

41.7

% of Combustion

Emissions

2.7

0.9

5.8

Natur

Emission Factor

(g/GJ)

20,000

0

153

al Gas

% of Combustion

Emissions

11.9

0

40

Relative to the entire fuel cycle, DeLuchi estimates that approximately eight percent by

mass of emissions from coal production are due to mining, preparation that includes cleaning the

coal, and transportation from the mine to the power plant. Transportation emissions include

emissions from the fuel used by the mode of transportation that moves the coal from the mine to

the power plant. Also, DeLuchi estimates that approximately 14 percent of emissions from

natural gas production results from upstream processes. In sum, emissions factors relative to

power plant emissions are a relatively small proportion of the energy losses attributable to

EA-24

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

5.1.2 Fuel-Cycle Emissions 

As discussed earlier, fuel-cycle emissions refer to the emissions associated with the 

amount of energy used in the upstream and downstream production of energy, including energy 

used at the power plant. The amount of energy used to perform the upstream processes is not 

directly linked to the downstream consumption of these fuels. For this reason, changes in 

upstream emissions due to today's standards are not counted in NEMS-BT. Although DOE does 

not report actual estimates of the effects of standards on upstream emissions, the emissions 

factors described here provide the reader with a sense for the possible magnitude of the effects. 

DOE took estimates of upstream emissions for CO2 and NOx from a study conducted in 

1993 by Mark A. DeLuchi (sometimes spelled DeLucci), Ph.D., at Argonne National 

Laboratory.5 DeLuchi provides estimates of full fuel-cycle emissions factors for CO2, methane 

(CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs), and NOx from coal 

and natural gas production.5 DOE took the emission factor for S02 from the EPA Report, AP42, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors. 6 The EPA AP-42 report notes that coal 

cleaning is the primary source for upstream S02 emissions from coal production, so the emission 

factor for S02 reflects only the coal-cleaning process. Transportation of coal is not addressed in 

EPA's study. 

Emission factor estimates and corresponding percentages of contributions of upstream 

emissions from coal and natural gas production, relative to power plant emissions, are shown in 

Table EA.20 for CO2, S02' and NOx • The percentage relative to power plant emissions provides 

a means to estimate upstream emission savings based on the savings from the power plant. The 

values shown in Table EA.20 represent emissions from upstream processes as mass in grams (g) 

per deliverable energy in gigajoules (GJ) to end-use consumers. 

Table EA.20 Estimated Upstream Emission Factors and Relative Percentages to Direct 

Power Plant Combustion Emissions 

Coal Natural Gas 

Emission Factor % of Combustion Emission Factor % of Combustion 

(gIGJ) Emissions (gIG./) Emissions 

CO2 8,147 2.7 20,000 11.9 

S02 29.2 0.9 0 0 

NOx 41.7 5.8 153 40 

Relative to the entire fuel cycle, DeLuchi estimates that approximately eight percent by 

mass of emissions from coal production are due to mining, preparation that includes cleaning the 

coal, and transportation from the mine to the power plant. Transportation emissions include 

emissions from the fuel used by the mode of transportation that moves the coal from the mine to 

the power plant. Also, DeLuchi estimates that approximately 14 percent of emissions from 

natural gas production results from upstream processes. In sum, emissions factors relative to 

power plant emissions are a relatively small proportion of the energy losses attributable to 

EA-24 
upstream processes. With the exception of NO,, emissions from natural gas production, upstream

emissions are less than 12 percent of power plant emissions.

5.2 Wetlands / Endangered and Threatened Species / Cultural Resources

This action is not site-specific, and would not affect land disturbance. Therefore, DOE

does not expect this action to impact the quality of wetlands, or threatened or endangered

species. Further, DOE does not expect this action to impact cultural resources such as historical

or archaeological sites.

5.3 Socioeconomic Impacts

DOE's analysis has shown that the increase in the first cost of purchasing a more efficient

furnace or boiler at today's standard level is offset by a reduction in the LCC of owning a more

efficient piece of equipment. In other words, the owner will pay lower operating costs over the

life of the equipment even though the first cost increases. For non-weatherized gas furnaces, one

percent of consumers realize LCC savings at today's standard level (TSL B), and zero percent

realize a net cost. ' For a complete discussion of the LCC impacts on consumers (including

impacts for the other product classes), see Chapter 8 of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers

TSD.4

For the subgroup of consumers that are low-income, DOE determined that for nonweatherized gas furnaces, today's standard level would result in slightly less favorable results

compared to the full sample of consumers . For the subgroup of consumers that are seniors, the

average LCC impact is similar to that for the full sample of consumers. For a complete

discussion of the LCC impacts on low-income and senior households , see Chapter 11 of the

Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4

5.4 Environmental Justice Impacts

In view of Executive Order 12898 of February 11, 1994, "Federal Actions to Address

Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations ," DOE examined

the effect of more stringent energy efficiency standards on low-income households. As

described in the LCC subgroup analysis, in Chapter 11 of the TSD,' DOE found that there were

no disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects on low-income

populations that would result from today's energy efficiency standards.

a This section gives quantitative results for non-weatherized gas furnaces because this product class accounts for

close to 90 percent of all furnace and boiler shipments.

EA-25

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

upstream processes. With the exception of NO x emissions from natural gas production, upstream 

emissions are less than 12 percent of power plant emissions. 

5.2 Wetlands / Endangered and Threatened Species / Cultural Resources 

This action is not site-specific, and would not affect land disturbance. Therefore, DOE 

does not expect this action to impact the quality of wetlands, or threatened or endangered 

species. Further, DOE does not expect this action to impact cultural resources such as historical 

or archaeological sites. 

5.3 Socioeconomic Impacts 

DOE's analysis has shown that the increase in the first cost of purchasing a more efficient 

furnace or boiler at today's standard level is offset by a reduction in the LCC of owning a more 

efficient piece of equipment. In other words, the owner will pay lower operating costs over the 

life of the equipment even though the first cost increases. For non-weatherized gas furnaces, one 

percent of consumers realize LCC savings at today's standard level (TSL B), and zero percent 

realize a net cost. a For a complete discussion of the Lec impacts on consumers (including 

impacts for the other product classes), see Chapter 8 of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers 

TSD.4 

For the subgroup of consumers that are low-income, DOE determined that for nonweatherized gas furnaces, today's standard level would result in slightly less favorable results 

compared to the full sample of consumers. For the subgroup of consumers that are seniors, the 

average LCC impact is similar to that for the full sample of consumers. For a complete 

discussion of the LCC impacts on low-income and senior households, see Chapter 11 of the 

Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4 

5.4 Environmental Justice Impacts 

In view of Executive Order 12898 of February 11, 1994, "Federal Actions to Address 

Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations," DOE examined 

the effect of more stringent energy efficiency standards on low-income households. As 

described in the LCC subgroup analysis, in Chapter 11 of the TSD,1 DOE found that there were 

no disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects on low-income 

populations that would result from today's energy efficiency standards. 

a This section gives quantitative results for non-weatherized gas furnaces because this product class accounts for 

close to 90 percent of all furnace and boiler shipments. 

EA-25 
5.5 Energy Consumption Impacts

Today's standard level for furnaces and boilers (TSL B) would result in the national

energy savings shown in Table EA.2 1. Energy savings for the other four TSLs are also provided

in Chapter 10 of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4

Table EA.21 Cumulative Energy Savings from Residential Furnaces and Boilers

Standards from 2015 to 2038

Trial 5

Cumulative Primary

Standard

Energy

Level

Saved (Quads) 0

TSL

.20 1 0

TSL

.25 A 0

TSL

.69 2 3.2

TSL1 B 3TSL.34 4 TSL

6.76

5.6 Noise and Aesthetics

Today's action is not likely to affect the sound power levels, sound quality levels, or

aesthetics associated with residential furnaces and boilers. The noise and aesthetics of the moreefficient equipment covered under this EA would be virtually no different from equipment being

installed today.

5.7 Summary of Environmental Impacts

Table EA.22 provides a summary of the analysis results to aid the reader in discerning

the benefits and burdens for the different TSLs as well as the no-action alternative.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

5.5 Energy Consumption Impacts 

Today's standard level for furnaces and boilers (TSL B) would result in the national 

energy savings shown in Table EA.2l. Energy savings for the other four TSLs are also provided 

in Chapter 10 of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4 

Table EA.21 Cumulative Energy Savings from Residential Furnaces and Boilers 

Standards from 2015 to 2038 

Trial Standard Level TSL 1 TSLA TSL2 TSLB TSL4 

Cumulative Primary Energy Saved (Quads) 0.20 0.25 0.69 3.21 3.34 

5.6 Noise and Aesthetics 

TSL5 

6.76 

Today's action is not likely to affect the sound power levels, sound quality levels, or 

aesthetics associated with residential furnaces and boilers. The noise and aesthetics of the moreefficient equipment covered under this EA would be virtually no different from equipment being 

installed today. 

5.7 Summary of Environmental Impacts 

Table EA.22 provides a summary of the analysis results to aid the reader in discerning 

the benefits and burdens for the different TSLs as well as the no-action alternative. 

EA-26 
Table EA.22 Summary of the Analysis Results

No-Action Trial Standard Level

Alternative I A 2 B 4 5

Cumulative Emission Reductions*

CO2 (Mt) 0.0 -6.1 -7.8 -20.0 -137.1 -141.3 -322.0

NOx (kt) 0.0 -7.3 -9.2 -23.9 -164.6 -169.2 -373.1

Cumulative Primary Energy Saved (Quads)* 0.0 0.20 0.25 0.69 3.21 3.34 6.76

Socioeconomic Impacts - Non-Weatherized

Gas Furnace, Mean LCC Savings

All Consumers NA $2 $2 $15 $55 $55 ($865)

Low-Income Subgroup NA $2 $2 $11 $39 $39 ($821)

Senior Subgroup NA $1 $1 $11 $36 $36 ($806)

Environmental Justice Impacts None None None None None None

Wetlands/Endangered and Threatened None None None None None None Species/Cultural Resources Impacts

Fuel-Cycle (Upstream) Emissions Impacts None **   **  **

I Noise and Aesthetics Impacts None None None None None None

* Cumulative total is over a time period starting in 2015 and ending in 2038. The reductions include impacts at power plants (both physical

reductions and emissions credits) and at the household level.

** DOE does not report actual estimates of the effects of standards on upstream emissions, but section 5.1.2 provides a sense of the possible

magnitude of effects.

Today's energy efficiency standards for furnaces and boilers, at TSL B, would not result

in significant environmental impacts. Today's standards will apply to all covered products

offered for sale in the United States and its Territories, with a compliance date of January 1,

2015.

DOE has found that today's standards represent the maximum improvement in energy

efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. DOE found the benefits to

the Nation of today's standards (energy savings, consumer average LCC savings, national NPV

increase, and emission reductions) outweigh the costs (loss of manufacturer NPV, and LCC

increases for some consumers). The justification for selecting today's action, TSL B, over the

other TSLs considered is fully explained in Section V.C, Conclusions, of the final rule. The final

rule is available on the internet at:

http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/furnaces boilers.html

Today's standards represent an improvement in energy efficiency (relative to the baseline

equipment) of 13 percent for non-weatherized gas furnaces (from 78-percent AFUE to 90-

percent AFUE), 4 percent for weatherized gas furnaces (from 78-percent AFUE to 81-percent

AFUE), 17 percent for mobile home gas furnaces (from 75-percent AFUE to 90-percent AFUE),

5 percent for oil-fired furnaces (from 78-percent AFUE to 82-percent AFUE), 2 percent for gas

boilers (from 80-percent AFUE to 82-percent AFUE), and 5 percent for oil boilers (from 80-

percent AFUE to 84-percent AFUE).

EA-27

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

T a e bi EA . 22 S ummaryo fth e AI' nalYSIS R esu It S 

No-Action Trial Standard Level 

Alternative 1 A 2 B 4 5 

Cumulative Emission Reductions* 

CO2 (Mt) 0.0 -6.1 -7.8 -20.0 -137.1 -141.3 -322.0 

NOx (kt) 0.0 -7.3 -9.2 -23.9 -164.6 -169.2 -373.1 

Cumulative Primary Energy Saved (Quads)* 0.0 0.20 0.25 0.69 3.21 3.34 6.76 

Socioeconomic Impacts Non-Weatherized 

Gas Furnace, Mean LCC Savings 

All Consumers NA $2 $2 $15 $55 $55 ($865) 

Low-Income Subgroup NA $2 $2 $11 $39 $39 ($821) 

Senior Subgroup NA $1 $1 $11 $36 $36 ($806) 

Environmental Justice Impacts None None None None None None 

Wetlands/Endangered and Threatened None None None None None None Species/Cultural Resources Impacts 

Fuel-Cycle (Upstream) Emissions Impacts None **   **  ** 

Noise and Aesthetics Impacts None None None None None None 

* Cumulative total is over a time period starting in 2015 and ending in 2038. The reductions include impacts at power plants (both physical 

reductions and emissions credits) and at the household level. 

** DOE does not report actual estimates of the effects of standards on upstream emissions, but section 5.1.2 provides a sense of the possible 

magnitude of effects. 

Today's energy efficiency standards for furnaces and boilers, at TSL B, would not result 

in significant environmental impacts. Today's standards will apply to all covered products 

offered for sale in the United States and its Territories, with a compliance date of January 1, 

2015. 

DOE has found that today's standards represent the maximum improvement in energy 

efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. DOE found the benefits to 

the Nation oftoday's standards (energy savings, consumer average LCC savings, national NPV 

increase, and emission reductions) outweigh the costs (loss of manufacturer NPV, and LCe 

increases for some consumers). The justification for selecting today's action, TSL B, over the 

other TSLs considered is fully explained in Section V.C, Conclusions, of the final rule. The final 

rule is available on the internet at 

http://www. eere. energy .gov /buildings/ appliance _standards/residential/furnaces _ boilers.html 

Today's standards represent an improvement in energy efficiency (relative to the baseline 

equipment) of 13 percent for non-weatherized gas furnaces (from 78-percent AFUE to 90-

percent AFUE), 4 percent for weatherized gas furnaces (from 78-percent AFUE to 81-percent 

AFUE), 17 percent for mobile home gas furnaces (from 75-percent AFUE to 90-percent AFUE), 

5 percent for oil-fired furnaces (from 78-percent AFUE to 82-percent AFUE), 2 percent for gas 

boilers (from 80-percent AFUE to 82-percent AFUE), and 5 percent for oil boilers (from 80-

percent AFUE to 84-percent AFUE). 

EA-27 
In the 24-year period after the new standards become effective, the Nation will save

about 3.21 quads of primary energy. Additionally, these energy savings will reduce emissions of

air pollutants and greenhouse gases by 137.1 Mt of CO2 and 164.6 kt of NOR.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

In the 24-year period after the new standards become effective, the Nation will save 

about 3.21 quads of primary energy. Additionally, these energy savings will reduce emissions of 

air pollutants and greenhouse gases by 137.1 Mt ofe02 and 164.6 kt ofNOx . 

EA-28 
REFERENCES

U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Building Research and Standards. Notice of the

Public Workshop and Availability of the Framework Document for Residential Furnaces

and Boilers. 2001. (Posted November 5, 2001)

<http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance-standards/>

2. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy

Conservation Program for Consumer Products. Technical Support Document: Energy

Conservation Program for Consumer Products; Residential Furnaces and Boilers -

NOPR Version. 2005. Washington, D.C.

<http://www. eere. energy.gov/buildings/appliance-standards/residential/furnaces_boilers.

html>

3. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy

Outlook 2005: With Projections Through 2025. February, 2005. Washington, DC.

Report No. DOE/EIA-03 83 (2005).

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2005).pdf>

4. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy

Conservation Program for Consumer Products. Technical Support Document: Energy

Conservation Program for Consumer Products; Residential Furnaces and Boilers -

SNOPR Version. 2007. Washington, D.C.

5. DeLuchi, M. A. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from the Use of Transportation Fuels

and Electricity, Volume 2: Appendixes A-S. November, 1993. Argonne National

Laboratory. Argonne, IL. Report No. ANL/ESD/TM-22-Vol.2.

6. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency. Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors,

AP-42, Fifth Edition, Volume I: Stationary Point and Area Sources, Chapter 11, Mineral

Products Industry. 1995. (Posted November)

<http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42c1 l.html>

7. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.

Technical Support Document: Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products;

Residential Furnaces and Boilers. 2007. Washington, D.C.

<http://www. eere. energy. gov/buildings/appliance-standards/residential/furnaces_boilers.

html>

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REFERENCES 

1. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Building Research and Standards. Notice of the 

Public Workshop and Availability of the Framework Documentfor Residential Furnaces 

and Boilers. 2001. (Posted November 5, 2001) 

<http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance _ standards/> 

2. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy 

Conservation Program for Consumer Products. Technical Support Document: Energy 

Conservation Programfor Consumer Products; Residential Furnaces and BoilersNOPR Version. 2005. Washington, D.C. 

<http://www . eere. energy .gov !buildings/appliance _standards/residential/furnaces _boilers. 

html> 

3. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy 

Outlook 2005: With Projections Through 2025. February, 2005. Washington, DC. 

Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2005). 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2005).pdf> 

4. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy 

Conservation Program for Consumer Products. Technical Support Document: Energy 

Conservation Program for Consumer Products; Residential Furnaces and Boilers -

SNOPR Version. 2007. Washington, D.C. 

5. DeLuchi, M. A. Emissions of Greenhouse Gasesfrom the Use of Transportation Fuels 

and Electricity, Volume 2: Appendixes A-S. November, 1993. Argonne National 

Laboratory. Argonne, IL. Report No. ANLIESD/TM-22-Vo1.2. 

6. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, 

AP-42, Fifth Edition, Volume 1: Stationary Point and Area Sources, Chapter 11, Mineral 

Products Industry. 1995. (Posted November) 

<http://www. epa. gov /ttni chief/ ap4 2c 11.html> 

7. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. 

Technical Support Document: Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products; 

Residential Furnaces and Boilers. 2007. Washington, D.C. 

<http://www .eere. energy .gov !buildings/appliance _standards/residential/furnaces _boilers. 

html> 

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