DOE/EA-1530



## ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR TODAY'S ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL

FURNACES AND BOILERS

September 2007

U.S. Department of Energy Assistant Secretary Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Building Technologies Program Appliances and Commercial Equipment Standards Washington, DC 20585 DOE/EA-1530



## ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FORTODAY'S ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FORRESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS

September 2007

u.S. Department ofEnergy Assistant Secretary Office ofEnergy 

### Efficiency &Renewable Energy Building Technologies Program Appliances and Commercial Equipment Standards Washington, DC 20585ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR TODAY'S ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................... EA-1 2.0 PURPOSE ........................................................ EA-2 3.0 ALTERNATIVES INCLUDING TODAY'S ACTION ...................... EA-2 3.1 No-Action Alternative .......................................... EA-2 3.2 Today's Action ................................................ EA-3 3.3 Alternative Standards ........................................... EA-3 4.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT .................... EA-4 4.1 Geography ................................................... EA-4 4.2 Air Resources ................................................. EA-4 4.2.1 Assumptions ............................................ EA-5 4.2.2 Methods ............................................... EA-6 4.3 Socioeconomics ............................................... EA-7 4.4 Environmental Justice .......................................... EA-8 4.5 Energy Consumption ........................................... EA-8 4.6 Noise and Aesthetics ........................................... EA-8 5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ........................................ EA-8 5.1 Air Quality/Emissions Impacts ................................... EA-8 5.1.1 Power Sector and Household Emissions ...................... EA-8 5.1.2 Fuel-Cycle Emissions ................................... EA-24 5.2 Wetlands / Endangered and Threatened Species / Cultural Resources .... EA-25 5.3 Socioeconomic Impacts ........................................ EA-25 5.4 Environmental Justice Impacts .................................. EA-25 5.5 Energy Consumption Impacts ................................... EA-26 5.6 Noise and Aesthetics .......................................... EA-26 5.7 Summary of Environmental Impacts .............................. EA-26
LIST OF TABLES Table EA.1 Current Energy Efficiency Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces

and Boilers ................................................... EA-2 Table EA.2 Today's Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers ........... EA-3 Table EA.3 Trial Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers ............. EA-4 Table EA.4 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast ......................... EA-10 Table EA.5 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast (High Growth) ............. EA-11 Table EA.6 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast (Low Growth) ............. EA-12 Table EA.7 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast , Relative to the Base Case ...... EA-13 Table EA.8 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast , Relative to the Base Case

(High Growth) ............................................... EA-14 Table EA.9 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

EA-i 

### ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FORTODAY'S ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FORRESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0 INTRODUCTION.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. EA-l 2.0 PURPOSE

........................................................ EA-2 3.0 ALTERNATIVES INCLUDING TODAY'S ACTION

...................... EA-2 3.1 No-Action Alternative

.......................................... EA-2 3.2 Today's Action

................................................ EA-3 3.3 Alternative Standards

........................................... EA-3 4.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT

.................... EA-4 4.1 Geography.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. EA-4 4.2 Air Resources

................................................. EA-4 4.2.1 Assumptions............................................ EA-5 4.2.2 Methods............................................... EA-6 4.3 Socioeconomics.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. EA-7 4.4 Environmental Justice

.......................................... EA-8 4.5 Energy Consumption

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. EA-8 4.6 Noise and Aesthetics

........................................... EA-8 5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

........................................ EA-8 5.1 Air Quality/Emissions Impacts

................................... EA-8 5.1.1 Power Sector and Household Emissions

...................... EA-8 5.1.2 Fuel-Cycle Emissions

................................... EA-24 5.2 Wetlands / Endangered and Threatened Species / Cultural Resources

.... EA-25 5.3 Socioeconomic Impacts

........................................ EA-25 5.4 Environmental Justice Impacts

.................................. EA-25 5.5 Energy Consumption Impacts

................................... EA-26 5.6 Noise and Aesthetics

.......................................... EA-26 5.7 Summary ofEnvironmental Impacts

.............................. EA-26

Table EA.l
Table EA.2 Table EA.3 Table EA.4 Table EA.5 Table EA.6 Table EA.7 Table EA.8
Table EA.9 LIST OFTABLES
Current Energy Efficiency Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers

................................................... EA-2 Today's Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers

........... EA-3 Trial StandardLevels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers

............. EA-4 Power SectorEmissions Impacts Forecast

......................... EA-I0 Power SectorEmissions Impacts Forecast (High Growth)

............. EA-ll Power SectorEmissions Impacts Forecast (Low Growth)

............. EA-12 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

...... EA-13 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (High Growth)

............................................... EA-14 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

EA-i(Low Growth) ............................................... EA-15

Table EA.10 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast , Relative to the

Base Case

................................................... EA-16 Table EA.11 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the

Base Case (High Growth) ...................................... EA-16 Table EA.12 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the

Base Case (Low Growth) ....................................... EA-17 Table EA.13 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast , Relative to the

Base Case

................................................... EA-17 Table EA.14 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the

Base Case (High Growth) ...................................... EA-18 Table EA.15 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the

Base Case (Low Growth) ....................................... EA-19 Table EA.16 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast,

Relative to the Base Case

....................................... EA-20 Table EA.17 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast,
Table EA.18 Relative to the Base Case (High Growth ) .......................... EA-21

Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth) .......................... EA-22 Table EA.19 Discounted Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions

Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

........................ EA-23 Table EA.20 Estimated Upstream Emission Factors and Relative Percentages to

Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions

......................... EA-24 Table EA.21 Cumulative Energy Savings from Residential Furnaces and
Table EA.22 Boilers Standards from 2015 to 2038 ............................. EA-26

Summary of the Analysis Results ................................ EA-27 

### (Low Growth)

............................................... EA-15 Table EA.10 Cumulative Power SectorEmissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

................................................... EA-16 Table EA.ll Cumulative Power SectorEmissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (High Growth)

...................................... EA-16 Table EA.12 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth)

....................................... EA-17 Table EA.13 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

................................................... EA-17 Table EA.14 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (High Growth)

...................................... EA-18 Table EA.15 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth)

....................................... EA-19 Table EA.16 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

....................................... EA-20 Table EA.17 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (High Growth)

.......................... EA-2l Table EA.18 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth)

.......................... EA-22 Table EA.19 Discounted Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

........................ EA-23 Table EA.20 Estimated UpstreamEmissionFactors and Relative Percentages to Direct PowerPlant Combustion Emissions

......................... EA-24 Table EA.21 Cumulative Energy Savings from Residential Furnaces and Boilers Standards from 2015 to 2038

............................. EA-26 Table EA.22 Summary ofthe Analysis Results

................................ EA-27

EA-iiABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AEO: Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/ETA publication ANOPR: advance notice of proposed rulemaking ASIIRAE: American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc. BT: DOE's Building Technologies program
Btu: British thermal unit
CO2: carbon dioxide DOE: Department of Energy
EA: Environmental Assessment ETA: Energy Information Administration EJ: exajoule (101$ joules) EPA: Environmental Protection Agency SPCA: Energy Policy and Conservation Act: Part B of Title III of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, Public Law 94-163, as amended by the National Energy Conservation Policy Act, Public Law 95-619, the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act, Public Law 100-12, the National Appliance Energy Conservation Amendments of 1988, Public Law 100-357, and the Energy Policy Act of 1992, Public Law 102-486 FR: Federal Register GJ: gigajoule (109 joules) GW: gigawatt (109 watts) kt/a: kilo (thousand) metric tons per annum (year) kWh: kilowatt-hour (thousand watts per hour) LCC: life-cycle cost Mt/a: million metric tons per annum (year)

EA-iii 

### ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AEO: AnnualEnergy Outlook, DOE/EIA publication
ANOPR: advance notice ofproposed rulemaking
ASHRAE: American Society ofHeating, Refrigeration, and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc.
BT: DOE's Building Technologies program Btu: British thermal unit
CO2: 

### carbon dioxide
DOE: Department ofEnergy
EA: Environmental Assessment
EIA: Energy Information Administration
EJ: exajoule (l018

### joules)
EPA: Environmental ProtectionAgency
EPCA: Energy Policy and ConservationAct: Part B ofTitle III ofthe Energy Policy and Conservation Act, Public Law 94-163, as amended by the National Energy Conservation Policy Act, Public Law 95-619, the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act, Public Law 100-12, the National Appliance Energy ConservationAmendments of 1988, Public Law 100-357, and the Energy Policy Act of 1992, Public Law 102-486
FR: Federal Register
GJ: gigajoule (l09

### joules)
GW: gigawatt (109 

### watts)
kt/a: kilo (thousand) metric tons per annum (year)
kWh: kilowatt-hour (thousand watts perhour)
LCC: life-cycle cost 

### Mt/a: million metric tons per annum (year)

EA-iiiMW: megawatt (million watts)

NAECA: National Appliance Energy Conservation Act NEMS: National Energy Modeling System NEPA: National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 NES: national energy savings NON: nitrogen oxides PBP: payback period quad: quadrillion Btu (1015 Btus) RIA: regulatory impact analysis
SO2: sulfur dioxide
t: metric ton
TSL: trial standard level TSD: technical support document
U.S.C.: United States Code 

### MW: megawatt (million watts)
NAECA: National Appliance Energy Conservation Act
NEMS: National Energy Modeling System
NEPA: National Environmental PolicyAct of 1969
NES: national energy savings
NOx : 

### nitrogen oxides
PBP: paybackperiod quad: quadrillion Btu (10 15 

### Btus)
RIA: regulatory impact analysis
S02: 

### sulfur dioxide



### t: metric ton
TSL: trial standard level
TSD: technical support document
U.S.C.: United States Code

EA-ivENVIRONMENTAL. ASSESSMENT FOR RESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS

1.0 INTRODUCTION The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) prepared this residential furnace and boiler environmental assessment (EA) pursuant to the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA)(42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.), the regulations of the Council on Environmental Quality (40 CFR parts 1500

- 1508), and DOE's regulations for compliance with NEPA ( 10 CFR part 1021). Title III of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) sets forth a variety of provisions designed to improve energy efficiency. Part B of title III (42 U.S.C 6291-6309) provides for the Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products other than Automobiles. The program covers consumer products and certain commercial products (referred to hereafter as

"covered products"), including residential furnaces and boilers.
EPCA authorizes DOE to prescribe new or amended standards for residential furnaces and boilers (42 U.S.C 6292(a)(f)) and provides criteria for prescribing new or amended standards for covered products . Any new or amended standard for a covered product must be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economicallyjustified. (42 U.S.C 6295(o)(2)(A)) EPCA precludes DOE from adopting any standard that would not result in significant conservation of energy . (42 U.S.C 6295(o)(3)) On June 13, 2001, DOE published a Framework Document for Residential Furnaces and Boilers Standards Rulemaking` that described the procedural and analytical approaches available to evaluate energy conservation standards for residential furnaces and boilers. DOE held a Framework Workshop on July 17, 2001 , to discuss the procedural and analytical approaches for use in this rulemaking, to inform and facilitate stakeholders ' involvement in the rulemaking process, and to seek their comments on the Framework Document. On July 29, 2004, after considering the stakeholder comments about the technical analysis, DOE published in the Federal Register an advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANOPR) to solicit public comments on its preliminary analyses concerning energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers. 69 FR 45419. DOE held a public meeting on September 29, 2004, to present the methodology and results of the ANOPR analyses, and to solicit oral comments from the stakeholders in attendance

. On October 6, 2006, DOE published in the Federal Register a notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) to solicit public comments on its analyses concerning energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers. 71 FR 59203. DOE held a public meeting on October 30 , 2006, to present today's standards for residential furnaces and boilers.



### ENVIRONMENTALASSESSMENT FORRESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS

1.0 INTRODUCTION
The U.S. Department ofEnergy (DOE) prepared this residential furnace and boiler environmental assessment (EA) pursuant to the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA)(42 U.S.c. 4321 

### etseq.), the regulations ofthe Council on Environmental Quality (40 CFRparts 1500-1508), and DOE's regulations for compliance with NEPA (10 CFRpart 1021).
Title 

### III ofthe Energy Policy and ConservationAct (EPCA) sets forth a variety of provisions designed to improve energy efficiency. Part B oftitle 

### III (42 U.S.C 6291-6309) provides for the Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products otherthan Automobiles. The program covers consumerproducts and certain commercial products (referred to hereafter as "coveredproducts"), including residential furnaces and boilers.
EPCA authorizes DOE to prescribe new or amended standards for residential furnaces and boilers (42 U.S.C 6292(a)(f)) and provides criteria for prescribing new or amended standards for coveredproducts. Any new or amended standard for a coveredproduct must be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economicallyjustified. (42 U.S.C 6295(0)(2)(A)) EPCAprecludes DOE from adopting any standardthat would notresult in significant conservation ofenergy. (42 U.S.C 6295(0)(3))
OnJune 13,2001, DOE published a 

### FrameworkDocumentforResidentialFurnaces and Boilers Standards Rulemaking 1

### that described the procedural and analytical approaches available to evaluate energy conservation standards for residential furnaces andboilers. DOE held a FrameworkWorkshop on July 17, 2001, to discuss the procedural and analytical approaches for use inthis rulemaking, to inform and facilitate stakeholders' involvement in the rulemaking process, and to seektheir comments on the Framework Document. OnJuly 29,2004, after considering the stakeholder comments about the technical analysis, DOEpublished in the Federal Register an advance notice ofproposed rulemaking (ANOPR) to solicitpublic comments on its preliminary analyses concerning energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers. 69 FR45419. DOE held a public meeting on September 29,2004, to present the methodology and results ofthe ANOPRanalyses, and to solicit oral comments from the stakeholders in attendance. On October 6, 2006, DOEpublished in the Federal Register a notice ofproposed rulemaking (NOPR) to solicitpublic comments on its analyses concerning energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces andboilers. 71 FR 59203. DOE held a public meeting on October 30,2006, to present today's standards for residential furnaces and boilers.

EA-I2.0 PURPOSE

Consistent with the EPCA requirements described in section 1.0, the purpose of today's action is to reduce the energy consumption of residential furnaces and boilers in the United States and its Territories. DOE exercises its discretion in deciding the level for a minimum efficiency standard, not in deciding if there should be one. More-stringent energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers will result in energy savings. The metric used to measure the efficiency of residential furnaces and boilers is the annual fuel utilization efficiency (AFUE). An increase in the AFUE indicates that the furnace or boiler is more efficient. Details on the technical analysis of increased efficiency levels are provided in the Residential Furnace and Boiler technical support document (TSD) that accompanies DOE's final rule.'

3.0 ALTERNATIVES INCLUDING TODAY'S ACTION DOE analyzed five alternative standards levels consisting of the five trial standard levels (TSLs) identified in the NOPR and a no-action alternative. Today's action is to adopt TSL B. The five alternatives are discussed below.
3.1 No-Action Alternative Under a no-action alternative, DOE would not publish new minimum energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers, and the efficiency standards would remain at current levels (Table EA. 1). (42 U.S.C 6295(f)(1)) The current standards went into effect on January 1, 1992, with the exception of the standard for mobile home furnaces, which went into effect on September 1, 1990.

Table EA.1 Current Energy Efficiency Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and

Boilers NWGF WGF MHF OF GB OB AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % 78 78 75 78 80 80 Product class list: NWGF = non-weatherized gas furnace WGF = weatherized gas furnace MHF = mobile home gas furnace OF = oil-fired furnace GB = gas boiler OB = oil-fired boiler

EA-2 

### 2.0 PURPOSE
Consistent with the EPCA requirements described in section 1.0, the purpose oftoday's action is to reduce the energy consumption ofresidential furnaces andboilers in the United States and its Territories. DOE exercises its discretion in deciding the level for a minimum efficiency standard, not in deciding ifthere shouldbe one. More-stringent energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers will result in energy savings. The metric used to measure the efficiency ofresidential furnaces andboilers is the annual fuel utilization efficiency (AFUE). An increase inthe AFUE indicates that the furnace orboiler is more efficient. Details on the technical analysis ofincreased efficiency levels are provided in the Residential Furnace and Boilertechnical support document (TSD) that accompanies DOE's final rule. 2



### 3.0 ALTERNATIVES INCLUDINGTODAY'S ACTION
DOE analyzed five alternative standards levels consisting ofthe five trial standard levels (TSLs) identified in the NOPR and a no-action alternative. Today's action is to adopt TSL B. The five alternatives are discussed below.
3.1 No-Action Alternative
Under a no-action alternative, DOE would notpublishnew minimum energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces andboilers, and the efficiency standards would remain at current levels (Table EA.1). (42 U.S.C 6295(f)(1)) The current standards went into effect on January 1, 1992, with the exception ofthe standard for mobile home furnaces, which went into effect on September 1, 1990.

Table EA.1 CurrentEnergyEfficiency Standard Levels for ResidentialFurnaces and Boilers NWGF WGF AFUE% AFUE% 78 

### 78 Product class lIst: NWGF = non-weatherized gas furnace WGF weatherized gas furnace MHF = mobile home gas furnace OF = oil-fired furnace GB = gas boiler OB = oil-fired boiler 

### MHF AFUE% 75 OF GB OB AFUE% AFUE% AFUE% 78 80 80

EA-2The no-action alternative is contrary to the requirement to amend the statutory energy

efficiency standards to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency for residential furnaces and boilers that DOE determines is technologically feasible and economically justified. (42 U.S.C 6295(o)(2)(A)) Nevertheless, DOE addressed the no-action alternative, as well as other non-regulatory policy cases and voluntary incentive programs, in the Residential Furnaces and Boilers Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA). The RIA found that the no-action alternative would result in lower reductions in energy consumption as compared to other alternatives, including today's action.
3.2 Today's Action Today's action is to adopt TSL B (see Table EA.2), which will result in national energy savings, reduced average life-cycle costs (LCC) to consumers, a net national benefit (i.e.,monetary savings to the Nation's consumers that exceed increased equipment costs), and airborne emissions reductions. In analyzing improvements in the efficiency of residential furnaces and boilers, DOE defined six TSLs. Each TSL consists of a combination of different AFUE levels applied to six different product classes. Of the six TSLs, DOE is adopting TSL B. Table EA.2 summarizes today's standard levels.
Table EA.2 Today's Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers NWGF WGF MHF OF GB OB AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % 90 81 80 82 82 84 Product class list: NWGF = non-weatherized gas furnace WGF = weatherized gas furnace MHF = mobile home gas fu nace OF = oil

-fired furnace GB = gas boiler OB = oil-fired boiler
3.3 Alternative Standards This EA also examines five other TSLs besides the one chosen for today's action (TSL B)and the no-action alternative. Each TSL is an alternative action, and is compared with the noaction alternative. The no-action alternative, also referred to as the base case, represents a situation where no new amended standards are proposed. TSL 1, TSL A, and TSL 2 are less stringent than today's action (TSL B), while TSL 4 and TSL 5 are more stringent than TSL B. Each TSL has a unique combination of AFUE efficiency levels for each product class. The TSLs, including today's action, are shown in Table EA.3.

EA-3 

### The no-action alternative is contrary to the requirement to amend the statutory energy efficiency standards to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency for residential furnaces and boilers that DOE determines is technologically feasible and economicallyjustified. (42 U.S.C 6295(0)(2)(A)) Nevertheless, DOE addressed the no-action alternative, as well as other non-regulatory policy cases and voluntary incentive programs, inthe Residential Furnaces and Boilers Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA). The RIA found that the no-action alternative would result in lower reductions in energy consumption as compared to other alternatives, including today's action.
3.2 Today's Action Today's action is to adopt TSL B (see Table EA.2), which will result in national energy savings, reduced average life-cycle costs (LCC) to consumers, a net national benefit (i.e., monetary savings to the Nation's consumers that exceed increased equipment costs), and airborne emissions reductions.
In analyzing improvements in the efficiency ofresidential furnaces and boilers, DOE defined six TSLs. Each TSL consists ofa combination ofdifferent AFUE levels applied to six different product classes. Ofthe six TSLs, DOE is adopting TSL B. 

### Table EA.2 summarizes today's standard levels.
T bi EA 2 T d ' St d d L I £ 

### R . d . I F

a e 

# . o aYs an ar eve s or eSI entia urnaces andB 'I 01 

### ers 

### NWGF WGF AFUE% AFUE% 90 81 Product class list: NWGF = non-weatherized gas furnace WGF = weatherized gas furnace MHF = mobile home gas furnace OF = oil-fired furnace GB = gas boiler OB oil-firedboiler 

### 3.3 Alternative Standards 

### MHF OF GB AFUE% AFUE% AFUE% 80 82 82 

### OB AFUE% 84

This EA also examines five otherTSLs besides the one chosen for today's action (TSL B) and the no-action alternative. Each TSL is an alternative action, and is compared with the noaction alternative. The no-action alternative, also referred to as the base case, represents a situation where no new amended standards are proposed. TSL 1, TSL A, and TSL 2 are less stringentthan today's action (TSL B), while TSL 4 and TSL 5 are more stringent than TSL B. Each TSL has a unique combination ofAFUE efficiency levels for eachproduct class. The TSLs, including today's action, are shown in Table EA.3.

EA-3Table EA.3 Trial Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers NWGF WGF MHF OF GB OB Trial Standard Levels AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % TSL 1 80 80 80 80 82 83 TSL A 80 81 80 82 82 83 TSL 2 81 81 80 82 84 83 TSL B 90 81 90 82 82 84 TSL 4 90 81 90 84 84 84 TSL 5 96 83 90 85 99 95 Product class list: NWGF = non-weatherized gas furnace WGF = weatherized gas furnace MHF = mobile home gas furnace OF = oil-fired furnace GB = gas boiler OB = oil-fired boiler

4.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT 4.1 Geography The residential furnace and boiler standards that DOE is adopting today will apply to all 50 States and to United States territories.
4.2 Air Resources To analyze the effect of proposed efficiency standards on air resources, DOE used a variant of the DOE Energy Information Administration (DOE/EIA)'s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), called NEMS-BT (BT is DOE's Building Technologies Program).' The environmental analysis is similar to the utility sector analysis described in Chapter 13 of the Residential Furnace and Boiler TSD. Outputs of the environmental analysis are in a format similar to the results of the DOE/EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AE02007).3

a The EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it as NEMS-BT. NEMS-BT was previously called NEMS-BRS.
EA-4 

### Table EA.3 Trial Standard Levels for ResidentialFurnaces and Boilers NWGF Trial Standard Levels AFUE% TSL 1 80 TSLA 80 TSL2 81 TSLB 90 TSL4 90 TSL 5 96 Product class lIst: NWGF = non-weatherized gas furnace WGF = weatherized gas furnace MHF mobile home gas furnace OF = oil-fired furnace GB = gas boiler OB oil-firedboiler 

### WGF MHF OF AFUE% AFUE% AFUE% 80 80 80 81 80 82 81 80 82 81 90 82 81 90 84 83 90 85

4.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT
4.1 Geography GB AFUE% 82 82 84 82 84 99 OB AFUE% 83 83 83 84 84 95

The residential furnace and boiler standards that DOE is adopting today will apply to all 50 States and to United States territories.
4.2 Air Resources
To analyze the effect ofproposed efficiency standards on airresources, DOE used a variant ofthe DOE Energy Information Administration (DOE/EIA)'s National EnergyModeling System (NEMS), calledNEMS-BT (BT is DOE's Building Technologies Program): The environmental analysis is similar to the utility sector analysis described in Chapter 13 ofthe Residential Furnace and BoilerTSD. Outputs ofthe environmental analysis are in a format similar to the results ofthe DOE/EIA's

### AnnualEnergy Outlook2007 (AE02007P

a The EIA approves use ofthe name NEMS to describe only an official version ofthe model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is nm under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it as NEMS-BT. NEMS-BTwas previously calledNEMS-BRS.
EA-4For each TSL, DOE calculated total power sector emissions based on output from

NEMS-BT. It also calculated household emissions exogenous to NEMS-BT. The EA considers two pollutants, nitrogen oxides (NOR) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), and one emission, carbon dioxide (CO2). An air pollutant is any substance in the air that can cause harm to humans or the environment. Pollutants may be natural or man-made and may take the form of solid particles, liquid droplets, or gases. The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 list 188 toxic air pollutants that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is required to control. The EPA has set national air quality standards for six common pollutants (also referred to as "criteria " pollutants), two of which are SO2 and NOR. Also, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 gave authority to EPA to control acidification and required operators of electric power plants to reduce emissions of SO2 and NOR. In addressing SO2 emissions, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 set an SO2 emissions cap on all power generation, but permitted flexibility among generators through the use of emissions allowances and tradable permits. The resulting SO2 trading implies that physical emissions effects of a standard will be zero because emissions will always be at, or near, the ceiling

. Consequently, there is no physical SO2 environmental benefit from electricity conservation as long as there is enforcement of the emissions ceiling.

4.2.1 Assumptions DOE conducted the EA as a policy deviation from the Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) System Load Reference Case, a modified AE02007 Reference Case, using the same basic set of assumptions in NEMS. The emissions characteristics of all electricity-generating plants are exactly as used inAE02007. The TMY System Load Reference Case and alternative growth scenarios are as described in the utility impact analysis of the Residential Furnace and Boiler TSD (Chapter 13).4 DOE derived the environmental impacts using the same higher decrement approach described in the utility impact analysis.
As in the utility impact analysis, DOE substituted the default NEMS system load with a system load that represents weather conditions for a TMY, which is here referred to as the TMY system load. As a result, the reference case used to judge the impacts from today's residential furnace and boiler standard is no longer an exact replication of the AEO2007 Reference Case and is therefore referred to as the TMY System Load Reference Case. The EA also includes a sensitivity analysis for each of the trial standard levels using the High and Low Economic Growth scenarios of NEMS

-BT. As described in Chapter 13 of the TSD4 these scenarios cover a range of macroeconomic growth assumptions. All environmental impact results include a 15 percent rebound effect, which is already accounted for in the national energy savings inputs.

EA-5 For each TSL, DOE calculated total power sector emissions based on output from NEMS-BT. Italso calculated household emissions exogenous to NEMS-BT. The EA considers two pollutants, nitrogen oxides (NOJ and sulfur dioxide (S02)' and one emission, carbon dioxide (C02 ), An air pollutant is any substance inthe air that can cause harm to humans orthe environment. Pollutants maybenatural orman-made and may take the form ofsolid particles, liquid droplets, or gases. The Clean AirActAmendments of 1990 list 188 toxic air pollutants that the U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency (EPA) is required to control. The EPAhas set national air quality standards for six commonpollutants (also referred to as "criteria" pollutants), two ofwhich are S02 andNOx' Also, the CleanAirActAmendments of 1990 gave authority to EPAto control acidification and required operators ofelectric powerplants to reduce emissions ofS02 and NOx' In addressing S02 emissions, the CleanAir Act Amendments of 1990 set an S02 emissions cap on all power generation, butpermitted flexibility among generators through the use ofemissions allowances andtradable permits. The resulting S02trading implies that physical emissions effects ofa standardwillbe zero because emissions will always be at, or near, the ceiling. Consequently, there is no physical S02 environmental benefit from electricity conservation as long as there is enforcement ofthe emissions ceiling.



### 4.2.1 Assumptions
DOE conducted the EA as a policy deviation from the Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) System Load Reference Case, a modified

### AE02007Reference Case, using the same basic set ofassumptions inNEMS. The emissions characteristics ofall electricity-generating plants are exactly as used in

### AE02007. The TMY System Load Reference Case and alternative growth scenarios are as described in the utility impact analysis ofthe Residential Furnace and BoilerTSD (Chapter 13).4 DOE derived the environmental impacts using the same higher decrement approach described in the utility impact analysis.
As in the utility impact analysis, DOE substitutedthe defaultNEMS system load with a system loadthat represents weather conditions for a TMY, which is here referred to as the TMY system load. As a result, the reference case usedtojudge the impacts from today's residential furnace andboiler standard is no longer an exactreplication ofthe

### AE02007Reference Case and is therefore referred to as the TMY SystemLoad Reference Case.
The EA also includes a sensitivity analysis for each ofthe trial standard levels using the High and Low Economic Growth scenarios ofNEMS-BT. As described in Chapter 13 ofthe TSD4 these scenarios cover a range ofmacroeconomic growth assumptions.
All environmental impact results include a 15 percentrebound effect, which is already accounted for inthe national energy savings inputs.

EA-54.2.2 Methods
Carbon Dioxide NEMS-BT tracks CO2 emissions using a detailed CO2 module that features broad coverage of all sectors and inclusion of interactive effects. Past experience with CO2 emissions results from NEMS suggests that the estimated emissions reductions generated by NEMS are somewhat lower than estimates based on simple average factors. One of the reasons for thisdivergence is that NEMS tends to predict that energy conservation displaces more energyefficient generating capacity in the later years of its forecast.
Power Sector NOc NEMS-BT estimates NO,, emissions from power generation by conforming to all current legislation regarding the power facility development, retrofitting, and dispatch, including potential installations of emissions-reducing equipment. On March 10, 2005, EPA issued the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) legislation. CAIR will permanently cap emissions of NOX across 28 eastern States and the District of Columbia. 70 FR 25162 (May 12, 2005). As with the SO2 emissions, a cap on NOX emissions will likely result in no emissions changes from equipment efficiency standards in the affected States. Because the purpose of this EA is to report estimated physical emissions effects, DOE does not report NOX emissions from the power sector.
Power Sector SO2 As explained above, accurate simulation of SO2 trading tends to imply that physical emissions effects will be zero, as long as emissions are at the ceiling. Therefore, DOE does not reportSO2 results here.
Household Emissions While NEMS-BT contains provisions for estimating emissions of NO, and SO2 from power generation, it does not estimate household emissions. Because households use natural gas, oil, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the residential sector also contributes to NOX and SO2 emissions. This analysis therefore includes separate estimates of the effect of standards on household NOX and SO2 emissions, based on simple emissions factors derived from the literature. DOE reports household SO2 emissions savings, although they are small, because the SO2 emissions caps do not apply to the residential sector. Appendix W provides a detailed description of the methodology and sources for deriving the emissions factors for combustion processes in residential furnaces and boilers. Fuel-Cycle Emissions Fuel-cycle emissions refer to all the emissions associated with the energy used in the upstream and downstream production of energy, including energy used at the power plant. NEMS-BT does a thorough accounting of emissions at the power plant due to downstream energy consumption, but does not account for upstream emissions (i.e., emissions from energy use during coal and natural gas production). The upstream processes include the mining of coal or extraction of natural gas, physical preparatory and cleaning processes, and transportation to

EA-6 4.2.2 Methods


### Carbon Dioxide NEMS-BT tracks CO2emissions using a detailed CO2module that features broad coverage ofall sectors and inclusion ofinteractive effects. Past experience with CO2emissions results from NEMS suggests that the estimated emissions reductions generatedbyNEMS are somewhat lowerthan estimates based on simple average factors. One ofthe reasons for this divergence is thatNEMS tends to predictthat energy conservation displaces more energyefficientgenerating capacity in the lateryears ofits forecast.


### Power SectorNOx NEMS-BT estimates NOx emissions from power generation by conforming to all current legislationregarding the powerfacility development, retrofitting, and dispatch, including potential installations ofemissions-reducing equipment. OnMarch 10, 2005, EPA issued the Clean AirInterstate Rule (CAIR) legislation. CAIRwill permanently cap emissions ofNOx across 28 eastern States andthe District ofColumbia. 70 FR 25162 (May 12,2005). As with the S02 emissions, a cap onNOx emissions will likely result in no emissions changes from equipment efficiency standards inthe affected States. Because thepurpose ofthis EA is to report estimatedphysical emissions effects, DOE does not reportNOx emissions from the power sector.


### Power Sector S02 As explained above, accurate simulation ofS02 trading tends to implythatphysical emissions effects will be zero, as long as emissions are atthe ceiling. Therefore, DOE does not report S02 results here.


### HouseholdEmissions While NEMS-BT contains provisions for estimating emissions ofNOx and S02 from power generation, it does not estimate household emissions. Because households use natural gas, oil, and liquefiedpetroleum gas (LPG), the residential sector also contributes to NOx and S02 emissions. This analysis therefore includes separate estimates ofthe effect ofstandards on household NOx and S02 emissions, based on simple emissions factors derived from the literature. DOE reports household S02 emissions savings, although they are small, because the S02 emissions caps do not apply to the residential sector. Appendix W provides a detailed description ofthe methodology and sources for deriving the emissions factors for combustion processes inresidential furnaces and boilers. 

### Fuel-Cycle Emissions Fuel-cycle emissions refer to all the emissions associated with the energy used inthe upstream and downstreamproduction ofenergy, including energyused at the powerplant. NEMS-BT does a thorough accounting ofemissions atthe powerplant due to downstream energy consumption, but does not account for upstream emissions (i.e., emissions from energy use during coal and natural gas production). Theupstream processes include the mining ofcoal orextraction ofnatural gas, physicalpreparatory and cleaning processes, andtransportation to

EA-6the power plant (see sub-section 5.1.2 for more information). Interpolation Because the energy savings from residential furnace and boiler standards are too small to produce stable power sector results in NEMS-BT, DOE estimated results for the TSLs using interpolation. This is similar to the process it used to estimate the utility impact analysis results. Appendix U of the Residential Furnace and Boiler TSD describes the interpolation methodology in detail.' Extrapolation The current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2030, yet other parts of the furnace and boiler energy efficiency standards analysis extend to the year 2066. It is not feasible to extend the forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem reasonable in general to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by extrapolations of those outputs could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simple replications of year 2030 results. While these may seem unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain introduction are included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in grey to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results. Discounting Emissions DOE also calculated discounted avoided emissions results. DOE used the same discount rates that it used in calculating the net present value (NPV)-seven percent and three percentreal -to calculate discounted cumulative emission reductions. The seven-percent and threepercent real discount rate values are meant to capture the present value of costs and benefits associated with projects facing an average degree of risk. Other discount rates may be more applicable to discount costs and benefits associated with projects facing different risks and uncertainties.
4.3 Socioeconomics As part of the rulemaking process, DOE evaluated the socioeconomic effects of standards on senior and low-income households, subgroups that DOE identified as possibly being disproportionately affected by a national standard level. DOE is especially concerned that increases in the purchase price of equipment could have negative impacts on these groups that may not be able to afford significant increases in equipment price. The analysis of consumer subgroups included determining the differences in LCC as well as the payback periods for the

EA-7 the powerplant (see sub-section 5.1.2 for more information). 

### Interpolation Because the energy savings from residential furnace and boiler standards are too small to produce stable power sector results in NEMS-BT, DOE estimatedresults for the TSLs using interpolation. This is similarto the process it used to estimate the utility impact analysis results. Appendix U ofthe Residential Furnace and Boiler TSD describes the interpolation methodology in detail. 4 

### Extrapolation The current time horizon ofNEMS-BT is 2030, yet otherparts ofthe furnace and boiler energy efficiency standards analysis extend to the year2066. Itis not feasible to extend the forecast period ofNEMS-BT for the purposes ofthis analysis nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method for extrapolation ofmany outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem reasonable in general to make simple linear extrapolations ofresults, inpractice this is not advisable because outputs could be contradictory. Forexample, changes in the fuel mix implied by extrapolations ofthose outputs couldbe inconsistent with the extrapolation ofmarginal emissions factors. An analysis ofvarious trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond the scope ofthis work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal ofuncertainty. Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simple replications ofyear 2030 results. While these may seemunreasonable in some instances, inthis wayresults are guaranteed to be consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the regulatory environment does notdeviate from the currentknown situation during the extrapolationperiod. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain introduction are included inNEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in grey to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results. 

### DiscountingEmissions DOE also calculated discounted avoided emissions results. DOEused the same discount rates that itused in calculating the netpresentvalue (NPV)-sevenpercent and three percent real-to calculate discounted cumulative emission reductions. The seven-percent andthreepercent real discount rate values are meant to capture the present value ofcosts and benefits associated withprojects facing an average degree ofrisk. Other discount rates may be more applicable to discount costs and benefits associated withprojects facing different risks and uncertainties.
4.3 Socioeconomics
As part ofthe rulemakingprocess, DOE evaluated the socioeconomic effects ofstandards on senior and low-income households, subgroups that DOE identified as possibly being disproportionately affectedby a national standard level. DOE is especially concerned that increases in the purchase price ofequipment couldhave negative impacts onthese groups that may notbe able to afford significant increases in equipmentprice. The analysis ofconsumer subgroups included determining the differences in LCC as well as the paybackperiods for the

EA-7four TSLs analyzed. Chapter 11 of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD provides more

details on the subgroup analysis.'
4.4 Environmental Justice DOE considered environmental justice under Executive Order 12898, Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations. The Executive Order requires Federal agencies to assess whether today's Federal action causes any disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects on low-income or minority populations. As mentioned above, DOE evaluated the socioeconomic effects of standards on low-income households. 4.5 Energy Consumption DOE used a detailed Shipments and National Energy Savings (NES) Spreadsheet Model to determine NES as a result of increases in furnace and boiler efficiency standards. This spreadsheet model forecasts the national shipments and energy use of residential furnaces and boiler with and without new standards. The shipments and NES analyses are described in detail in Chapters 9 and 10, respectively, of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4 The NES results include a 15-percent rebound effect.
4.6 Noise and Aesthetics DOE considered how amended energy conservation standards for residential furnaces and boilers would affect the noise and aesthetics of the equipment. To improve the efficiency of residential furnaces and boilers, some design changes can enlarge the size of the equipment or necessitate the use of more-efficient motors and fans. DOE determined if these design changes would affect noise and aesthetics .

5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS 5.1 Air Quality/Emissions Impacts
5.1.1 Power Sector and Household Emissions The results for the environmental analysis are similar to a complete NEMS run as published in the AEO, and include power sector emissions for CO2 in five-year forecast increments extrapolated to the year 2038. DOE reports the outcome of the analysis for each TSL as a deviation from the TMY System Load Reference Case. This is also referred to as the base
case. As discussed earlier in section 4.2, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 and the CAIR legislation passed in 2005 set a NO, and SO2 emissions cap on all power generation, but

EA-8 four TSLs analyzed. Chapter 11 ofthe Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD provides more details onthe subgroup analysis.4

4.4 EnvironmentalJustice
DOE considered environmentaljusticeunderExecutive Order 12898, Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice inMinority Populations and Low-Income Populations. The Executive Orderrequires Federal agencies to assess whether today's Federal action causes any disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects on low-income or minoritypopulations. As mentioned above, DOE evaluatedthe socioeconomic effects of standards on low-income households.
4.5 Energy Consumption
DOEused a detailed Shipments andNational Energy Savings (NES) Spreadsheet Model to determine NES as a result ofincreases in furnace andboiler efficiency standards. This spreadsheet model forecasts the national shipments and energyuse ofresidential furnaces and boilerwith and without new standards. The shipments andNES analyses are described in detail in Chapters 9 and 10, respectively, ofthe Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4 TheNES results include a IS-percent rebound effect.
4.6 Noise and Aesthetics
DOE consideredhow amended energy conservation standards for residential furnaces andboilers would affect the noise and aesthetics ofthe equipment. To improve the efficiency of residential furnaces andboilers, some design changes can enlarge the size ofthe equipment or necessitate the use ofmore-efficient motors and fans. DOE determined ifthese design changes would affect noise and aesthetics

.

5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
5.1 Air Quality/Emissions Impacts
5.1.1 Power Sector and Household Emissions
The results for the environmental analysis are similarto a completeNEMS run as published inthe AEO, and include power sector emissions for CO2in five-year forecast increments extrapolated to the year 2038. DOE reports the outcome ofthe analysis for each TSL as a deviation from the TMY System Load Reference Case. This is also referred to as the base case. As discussed earlier in section4.2, the CleanAir Act Amendments of 1990 and the CAIR legislationpassed in 2005 set a NOx and S02 emissions cap on all power generation, but

EA-8permitted flexibility among generators through the use of emissions allowances and tradable

permits. Moreover, NO,, and SO2 trading implies that physical emissions effects of a standard will be zero because emissions will always be at, or near, the ceiling. Consequently, there is no physical NO,, and SO2 environmental benefit from electricity conservation as long as the emissions ceiling is binding. An economic benefit may result if generation falls and the resulting reduced demand for NO,, and SO2 emission allowances lowers the allowance price. Because the NOX and SO2 effects considered here are too small to provide reasonable estimates of impacts on allowance prices, the environmental assessment does not attempt to estimate these benefits. (If this price impact is big enough to be detectable in NEMS-BT, DOE will report this value in future appliance standards rulemakings.) As a result, power sector emissions impacts are only reported for CO2.
Tables EA.4-EA.6 show annual total power sector CO2 emissions for the base, high, and low growth cases for each of the six TSLs. Tables EA.7-EA.9 show the annual results for the household emissions . Tables EA.10-EA.12 show the cumulative power sector emissions impacts from 2000 through 2030 and from 2015 through 2038 for CO2. The cumulative emissions through 2038 increase from TSL 1 to TSL 5 due to a rise in electricity generation resulting from a market shift from gas to electric heating equipment at the higher standard levels.
Tables EA. 13-EA. 15 show the cumulative household emissions impacts from 2000 through 2030 and from 2015 through 2038 for C02, NOR, and SO2. The emissions reductions become larger from TSL 1 to TSL 5 due to the decline in fuel consumption at these standard levels.
Tables EA. 16-EA.18 show the total cumulative emissions reductions from both the power sector and households

. The emissions reductions become larger from TSL 1 to TSL 5 because the decrease in household emissions outweighs the increase in power sector emissions.
Table EA. 19 shows the discounted cumulative emissions impacts from both the power sector and households, using seven

- and three-percent real discount rates. 

### permitted flexibility among generators through the use ofemissions allowances and tradable permits. Moreover, NOx 

### and S02 trading implies that physical emissions effects ofa standard will be zero because emissions will always be at, ornear, the ceiling. Consequently, there is no physical NOx 

### and S02 environmental benefit from electricity conservation as long as the emissions ceiling is binding. An economic benefitmay result ifgeneration falls and the resulting reduced demand for NOx 

### and S02 emission allowances lowers the allowance price. Because the NOx 

### and S02 effects considered here are too small to provide reasonable estimates ofimpacts on allowance prices, the environmental assessment does not attempt to estimate these benefits. (If this price impact is big enough to be detectable in NEMS-BT, DOE will report this value in future appliance standards rulemakings.) As a result, power sector emissions impacts are only reported for CO2 , Tables EA.4-EA.6 show annual total power sector CO2emissions for the base, high, and low growth cases for each ofthe six TSLs. Tables EA.7-EA.9 show the annual results for the household emissions. Tables EA.l0-EA.12 show the cumulativepower sector emissions impacts from 2000 through 2030 and from 2015 through 2038 for CO2 , The cumulative emissions through 2038 increase from TSL 1to TSL 5 due to a rise in electricity generation resulting from a market shift from gas to electric heating equipment atthe higher standard levels.
Tables EA.13-EA.15 showthe cumulative household emissions impacts from 2000 through 2030 and from 2015 through 2038 for CO2 ,NOx, 

### and S02' The emissions reductions become larger from TSL 1to TSL 5 due to the decline in fuel consumption atthese standard levels.
Tables EA.16-EA.18 showthe total cumulative emissions reductions from both the power sector and households. The emissions reductions become larger from TSL 1to TSL 5 because the decrease inhousehold emissions outweighs the increase inpower sector emissions.
Table EA.19 shows the discounted cumulative emissions impacts from both the power sector and households, using seven- andthree-percent real discount rates.

EA-9Table EA.4 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Refwith TMY System Load' Extrapolation 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 AE02007 Reference Case with TMY C02 (Mt/a)b,^ 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.0 2,855.0 3,095.0 3,353.0 Standard Level 1 CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.0 2,854.9 3,095.1 3,353.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 Standard Level A CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.0 2,854.9 3,095.2 3,353.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Standard Level 2 CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,677.9 2,854.7 3,095.4 3,353.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 Standard Level B CO2 Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,506.7 2,677.2 2,853.3 3,097.8 3,358.6 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 2.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 Standard Level 4 CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,506.7 2,677.2 2,853.3 3,097.9 3,358.8 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 2.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 Standard Level 5 CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0. 2,375.0. 2,506.4. 2,676.3 2,851.4 3,101.1 3,365.2 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -1.7 -3.6 6.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 Negative values correspond to emissions reductions b Comparable to Table A17 of AE02007: Electric Generators All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons 

### T bi EA4 P

a e 

# . ower 

### S t 

### E

.. I t 

### F ec or mISSIons mpac S orecas t NEMS-BT Results

2000 2005 2010 2015 AE02007 Reference Case with TMY C02 (Mtla)b,c 2,279,0 2,375,0 2,507,0 2,678,0 Standard Levell C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.0 Standard Level A C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.0 Standard Level 2 C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,677.9 Standard Level B C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,506.7 2,677.2 Standard Level 4 C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,506.7 2,677.2 Standard Level 5 C02 (Mt/a) 2279.0 2375.0 2506.4 2676.3

a NegatIve values correspondto emISSIons reductIOns
b Comparable to Table A17 ofAE02007: Electric Generators

C All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons

EA-10 2020

2,855.0 2,854.9 2,854.9 2,854.7 2,853.3 2,853.3
2851.4 2025

3,095.0 3,095.1 3,095.2 3,095.4 3,097.8 3,097.9
3 lOLl Differeuce from AEO 2007 Refwith TMY System Loada Extrapolation 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

### ';J;(c<~~>

# I(Y~; 

# W+(; 3,353.0 

### · .........**,.s,k~i·** 3,353.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3

# (~)~<1 •••••

# I~:o.~<\!

# (~~~\~ I ••··'·····.··,·. 3,353.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 1;,::0;3 3,353.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.9

# 8~'6t9~/**l~ii~.§\c;\**

# !<~%~?~2.·**I'~;\~i~';~** 3,358.6 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 2.8 5.6 1'1.'0:°1·····. 3,358.8 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 2.9 5.8

# it~\if~1<**I~/~:~:;~** 3365.2 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -1.7 -3.6 6.1 12.2

## ~~~Yr»/Y 

# ·t.l i&t i '

# I~ir~~i!Table EA.5 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast (High Growth) NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Refwith TMY System Load' Extra olation 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 AE02007 Reference Case with TMY C02 (Mt/a)b°c 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.0 3,300.0 3,609.0 Standard Level 1 C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.2 3,300.5 3 609.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 Standard Level A C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.2 3,300.6 3,610.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 Standard Level 2 C02 (Mt/a) 21279.0 21375.0 21531.0 21754.0 21993.6 3 301.5 3,611.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 Standard Level B C02 (Mt/a) 2279.0 2375.0 2530.8 2754.0 2997.1 3309.9 3628.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 4.1 9.9 19.2 19.2 19.2 Standard Level 4 C02 (Mt/a) 21279.0. 21375.0 2 530.8 2,754.0 21997.2 3 310.2 3,628.7 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 4.2 10.2 19.7 19.7 19.7 Standard Level 5 C02 (Mt/a) 2279.0 2375.0 2530.5 2754.0 3002.0 3321.5 3650.7 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 9.0 21.5 41.7 41.7 41.7 1 Negative values correspond to emissions reductions Comparable to Table A17 of AE02007: Electric Generators ` All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons 

### Table EA.S Power Sector EmIssIons Impacts Forecast (High Growth)

AE02007 Reference Case with TMY C02 (Mt/a)b,c Standard Levell C02 (Mt/a) Standard Level A C02 (Mt/a) Standard Level 2 C02 (Mt/a) Standard Level B C02 (Mt/a) Standard Level 4 C02 (Mt/a) Standard Level 5 C02 (Mt/a) NEMS-BT Results

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.0 3,300.0 3,609.0 Difference from AEO 2007 Refwith TMY System Load" Extrapolation 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

2279.0 2375.0 2531.0 2754.0 2 993.2 3 300.5 3 609.9 0.0 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.2 3,300.6 3,610.1 0.0
2279.0 2375.0 2531.0 2754.0 2993.6 3301.5 3611.9 0.0
2279.0 2375.0 2530.8 2754.0 2997.1 3309.9 3628.2 0.0
2279.0 2375.0 2530.8 2754.0 2997.2 3310.2 3628.7 0.0
2279.0 2375.0 2530.5 2754.0 3002.0 3321.5 3650.7 0.0

a Negative values correspondto emissions reductIOns
b Comparable to Table Al7 ofAE02007: Electric Generators

c All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons

EA-11Table EA.6 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast (Low Growth) NEMS

-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Refwith TMY System Loada Extrapolation 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2 335 2038 AE02007 Reference Case with TMY C02 (Mt/a)'°° 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.0 2,610.0 2,722.0 2,877.0 3,019.0 Standard Level 1 C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.0 2,610.0 2,722.1 2,877.2 3,019.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 Standard Level A C02 (Mt/a) .2 ,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.0 2,610.0 2,722.1 2,877.2 3,019.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 Standard Level 2 C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.0 2,610.0 2,722.3 2,877.7 3,020.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 Standard Level B C02 (Mt/a) .2 ,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.1 2,610.3 2,724.2 2,881.3 3,026.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.2 4.3 7.6 7.6 7.6 Standard Level 4 C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.1 2,610.3 2,724.3 2,881.4 3,026.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3 4.4 7.8 7.8 7.8 Standard Level 5 C02 (Mt/a) 2,279.0. 2,375.0 2,482.3 2,610.6. 2,726.9 2,886.4 _3,035.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 4.9 9.4 16.6 16.6 16.6 Negative values correspond to emissions reductions n Comparable to Table A17 of AE02007: Electric Generators All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons Table EA 6 Power Sector EmIssIons Impacts Forecast (Low Growth)

AE02007 Reference Case with TMY C02 (Mt/a)b,c StandardLevell C02 (Mt/a) Standard Level A C02 (Mt/a) StandardLevel 2 C02 (Mt/a) StandardLevel B C02 (Mt/a) StandardLevel 4 C02 (Mt/a) StandardLevel 5 C02 (Mt/a) NEMS-BT Results

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2279.0 2375.0 2482.0 2610.0 2722.0 2877.0 3019.0 Difference from AEO 2007 Refwith TMY System Loada Extrapolation 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

2279.0 2375.0 2482.0 2610.0 2722.1 2877.2 3019.4 0.0 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.0 2,610.0 2,722.3 2,877.7 3,020.2 0.0
2279.0 2375.0 2482.1 2610.3 2724.2 2881.3 3026.6 0.0 0.0 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,482.1 2,610.3 2,724.3 2,881.4 3,026.8 0.0 2,279.0 2375.0 2482.3 2610.6 2726.9 2886.4 3 035.6 0.0

a NegatIve values correspond to emISSIOns reductIOns
b Comparable to Table A17 ofAE02007: Electric Generators

C All results in metric tons (t), equivalentto 1.1 short tons

EA-12Table EA.7 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case AE02007 Standard Case Results' Extrapolation 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 TSL 1 CO NO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.36 -0.56 -0.56 -0.56 NOx (1d 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.30 -0.46 -0.46 -0.46 SO (1,,t 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TSL A CO, (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.24 -0.46 -0.70 -0.70 -0.70 NOx kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.38 -0.57 -0.57 -0.57 SO lct 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.08 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 TSL 2 CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.58 -1.21 -1.85 -1.85 -1.85 NOx kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.48 -0.99 -1.51 -1.51 -1.51 SO Oct- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 TSL B CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.94 -8.18 -12.52 -12.52 -12.52 NOx lct 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.28 -6.79 -10.39 -10.39 -10.39 SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.27 -0.38 -0.38 -0.38 TSL 4 CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.06 -8.42 -12.89 -12.89 -12.89 NOx kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.38 -6.98 -10.68 -10.68 -10.68 SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.24 -0.46 -0.63 -0.63 -0.63 TSL 5 CO, (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -8.99 -18.76 -28.78 -28.78 -28.78 NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -7.38 -15.38 -23.59 -23.59 -23.59 SO kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.35 -2.74 -3.94 -3,94 -3.94 ' Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case Table EA.7

EA-13Table EA.8 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (High Growth) AE02007 Standard Case Resultsa 

# 7T ;;

# T Extrapolation

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 TSL 1 CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.38 -0.59 -0.59 -0.59 NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.16 -0.31 -0.48 -0.48 -0.48 SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0760 0.00 TSL A CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.49 -0.74 -0.74 -0.74 NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 -0.60 -0.60 SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.08 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 TSL 2 CO NO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.62 -1.28 -1.97 -1.97 -1.97 NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.51 -1.04 -1.61 -1.61 -1,61 SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.09 -0.12 -0.12 -0.12 TSL B CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.20 -8.70 -13.42 -13.42 -13.42 NOx kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.49 -7.22 -11.12 -11.12 -11.12 SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.28 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 TSL 4 C02 NO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.32 -8.95 -13.80 -13.80 -13.80 NOx kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.59 -7.42 -11.43 -11.43 -11,43 SO kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.48 -0.65 -0.65 -0.65 TSL 5 CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.62 -20.02 -30.89 -30.89 -30.89 NOx kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -7.89 -16.41 -25.31 -25,31 -25.31 SO kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.42 -2.87 -4.15 -4.15 -4.15 a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case 

### Table EA.8 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (High

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

EA-14Table EA.9 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth) AE02007 Standard Case Resultsa Extrapolation 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 TSL 1 CO2(Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.18 -0.34 -0.51 -0.51 -0.51 NOx (kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.28 -0.42 -0.42 -0.42 SO kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TSL A CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.23 -0.43 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64 NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.35 -0.52 -0.52 -0.52 SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.08 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 TSL 2 CO. NO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.55 -1.11 -1.67 -1.67 -1.67 NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.45 -0.91 -1.36 -1.36 -1.36 SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 TSL B CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.69 -7.47 -11.18 -11.18 -1 1'18 NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.08 -6.20 -9.26 -9.26 -9.26 SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.25 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34 TSL 4 CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.81 -7.70 -11.52 -11.52 -11.52 NOx (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.17 -6.38 -9.53 -9.53 -9.53 SO (kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.23 -0.44 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58 TSL 5 CO (Mt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -8.38 -17.13 -25.80 -25.80 -25.80 NOx 1a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -6.88 -14.04 -21.13 -21.13 -21.13 SO kt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.29 -2.57 -3.65 -3.65 -3.65 a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case 

### Table EA.9 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (Low

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

EA-15Table EA.10 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case Cumulative Cumulative NEMS-BT Results 2000-2030 2015-2038 Standard Level 1 CO2 (Mt) 0.6 2.8 Standard Level A CO2 (Mt) 0.7 3.4 Standard Level 2 CO2 (Mt) 2.1 9.3 Standard Level B CO2 (Mt) 14.0 61.2 Standard Level 4 CO2 (Mt) 14.3 62.8 Standard Level 5 CO2 Mt 30.4 133.1 a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case
Table EA.11 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case
Cumulative Cumulative NEMS-BT Resultsa 2000-2030 2015-2038 Standard Level 1 CO2 (Mt) 5.4 12.6 Standard Level A CO2 (Mt) 6.6 15.3 Standard Level 2 CO2 (Mt) 17.6 41.2 Standard Level B CO2 (Mt) 116.1 271.3 Standard Level 4 CO2 Mt 119.1 278.3 Standard Level 5 CO2 (Mt) 251.8 589.2 a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

(High Growth) T bl EA 10 C

a e I t' P umu a lve ower S t E ' , I t Forecast, Relative to the Base Case ec or miSSIOns mpac s NEMS-BT Results· Cumulative Cumulative 2000-2030 2015-2038 Standard Levell C02 (Mt) 0.6 2.8 Standard Level A C02 (Mt) 0.7 3.4 StandardLevel 2 C02 (Mt) 2.1 9.3 StandardLevel B C02 (Mt) 14.0 61.2 Standard Level4 C02 (Mt) 14.3 62.8 Standard Level 5 C02 (Mt) 30.4 l33.1
• Negative values refer to a reductIOn compared to the Reference case Table EA,l1 CumulativePower Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (H' h G th) 19l row NEMS-BT Results· Cumulative Cumulative 2000-2030 2015-2038 StandardLevell C02 (Mt) 5.4 12.6 StandardLevelA C02 (Mt) 6.6 15.3 StandardLevel 2 C02 (Mt) 17.6 41.2 StandardLevel B C02 (Mt) 116.1 271.3 StandardLevel4 C02 (Mt) 119.1 278.3 StandardLevel 5 C02 (Mt) 251.8 589.2
• NegatIve values refer to a reductIOn comparedto the Reference case

EA-16Table EA.12 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth)

Cumulative Cumulative NEMS-BT Resultsa 2000

-2030 2015-2038 Standard Level 1 C02 (Mt) 2.6 5.5 Standard Level A CO2 (Mt) 3.2 6.7 Standard Level 2 CO2 (Mt) 8.6 17.9 Standard Level B CO2 (Mt) 56.5 118.0 Standard Level 4 CO2 (Mt) 57.9 121.1 Standard Level 5 CO2 (Mt) 122.4 256.2 a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case
Table EA.13 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base

Case Exogenous Resultsa Cumulative 2000

-2030 Cumulative

2015-2038 TSL 1 CO NO -4.4 -8.9 NOx (kt) -3.6 -7.3 SO, (kt) 0.0 0.0 TSL A CO (Mt) -5.6 -11.2 NOx (kt) -4.6 -9.2 SO (kt) -1.0 -1.8 TSL 2 CO (Mt) -14.5 -29.2 NOx kt -11.8 -23.9 SO kt) -1.1 -2.0 TSL B CO (Mt) -98.1 -198.3 NOx kt) -81.5 -164.6 SO (kt) -3.2 -6.2 TSL 4 CO NO -101.0 -204.1 NOx (kt) -83.8 -169.2 S0, (kt) -5.5 -10.5 TSL 5 CO (Mt -224.9 -455.1 NOx (kt) -184.4 -373.1 SO, (kt) -32.4 -63.9 a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

EA-17 

### Table EA.12 Cumulative Power SectorEmissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth) NEMS-BT Resultsa Cumulative Cumulative 2000-2030 2015-2038 Standard Levell C02 (Mt) 2.6 5.5 StandardLevelA C02 (Mt) 3.2 6.7 Standard Level 2 C02 (Mt) 8.6 17.9 Standard Level B C02 (Mt) 56.5 118.0 StandardLevel 4 C02 (Mt) 57.9 121.1 Standard Level 5 C02 (Mt) 122.4 256.2

a Negative values refer to a reductlOn comparedto the Reference case 

### Table EA.13 CumulativeHousehold Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case Exogenous Resultsa Cumulative Cumulative 2000-2030 2015-2038 TSL 1 CO? (Mt) -4.4 -8.9 NOx (kt) -3.6 -7.3 SO? (kt) 0.0 0.0 TSLA CO? (Mt) -5.6 -11.2 NOx (kt) -4.6 -9.2 SO? (kt) -1.0 -1.8 TSL2 CO? (Mt) -14.5 -29.2 NOx (kt) -11.8 -23.9 SO? (kt) -1.1 -2.0 TSLB CO? (Mt) -98.1 -198.3 NOx (kt) -81.5 -164.6 SO? (kt) -3.2 -6.2 TSL4 CO? (Mt) -101.0 -204.1 NOx (kt) -83.8 -169.2 SO? (kt) -5.5 -10.5 TSL5 CO? (Mt) -224.9 -455.1 NOx (kt) -184.4 -373.1 SO? (kt) -32.4 -63.9

a NegatIve values refer to a reductlOn comparedto the Reference case

EA-17Table EA.14 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base

Exogenous Resultsa Cumulative 2000-2030 Cumulative

2015-2038 TSL 1 CO NO -4.6 -9.4 NOx (kt) -3.8 -7.7 SO (kt) 0.0 0.0 TSL A CO NO -5.9 -11.8 NOx (kt) -4.8 -9.6 SO kt) -1.0 -1.8 TSL 2 CO (Mt) -15.4 -31.1 NOx (lct -12.6 -25.4 SO kt) -1.1 -2.0 TSL B CO Mt -104.6 -211.9 NOx (kt) -86.8 -175.8 SO (kt) -3.3 -6.5 TSL 4 CO Mt -107.6 -218.0 NOx (kt) -89.2 -180.6 SO kt -5.7 -10.9 TSL 5 CO NO -240.5 -487.6 NOx (kt) -197.1 -399.6 SO (kt) -34.0 -67.2

Case (High Growth)

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case 

### Table EA.14 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base C (HO h G th)

ase**I~J** 

### row Exogenous Resultsa Cumulative Cumulative 2000-2030 2015-2038 TSL 1 CO) (Mt) -4.6 -9.4 NOx (kt) -3.8 -7.7 S02 (kt) 0.0 0.0 TSLA CO2 (Mt) -5.9 -11.8 NOx (kt) -4.8 -9.6 S02 (kt) -1.0 -1.8 TSL2 CO2 (Mt) -15.4 -31.1 NOx (kt) -12.6 -25.4 SO) (kt) -1.1 -2.0 TSLB CO2 (Mt) -104.6 -211.9 NOx (kt) -86.8 -175.8 SO? (kt) -3.3 -6.5 TSL4 CO2 (Mt) -107.6 -218.0 NOx (kt) -89.2 -180.6 SO) (kt) -5.7 -10.9 TSL5 CO2 (Mt) -240.5 -487.6 NOx (kt) -197.1 -399.6 SO? (kt) -34.0 -67.2

a Negative values refer to a reductIOn comparedto the Reference case

EA-18Table EA.15 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth) Exogenous Resultsa Cumulative 2000-2030 Cumulative

2015-2038 TSL 1 CO2 (Mt) -4.1 -8.2 NOx (ict) -3.4 -6.7 SO (1ct) 0.0 0.0 TSL A C02 NO -5.2 -10.3 NOx (kt) -4.3 -8.4 SO (kt) -0.9 -1.7 TSL 2 CO (Mt) -13.3 -26.7 NOx (kt) -10.9 -21.8 SO lct -1.0 -1.9 TSL B CO (Mt) -89.4 -178.9 NOx (kt) -74.2 -148.3 SO (kt) -3.0 -5.7 TSL 4 CO NO -92.2 -184.4 NOx (kt) -76.4 -152.7 SO2 (kt) -5.2 -8.8 TSL 5 CO NO -205.0 -411.5 NOx (kt) -168.1 -337.1 SO lct -30.4 -59.6 a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case 

### Table EA.15 Cumulative Household Emissions ImpactsForecast, Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth) Exogenous Results· Cumulative Cumulative 2000-2030 2015-2038 TSL 1 CO? (Mt) -4.1 -8.2 NOx (let) -3.4 -6.7 S02 (let) 0.0 0.0 TSLA CO? (Mt) -5.2 -10.3 NOx (let) -4.3 -8.4 S02 (let) -0.9 -1.7 TSL2 CO2 (Mt) -13.3 -26.7 NOx (let) -10.9 -21.8 SO? (let) -1.0 -1.9 TSLB CO2 (Mt) -89.4 -178.9 NOx (let) -74.2 -148.3 SO? (let) -3.0 -5.7 TSL4 CO2 (Mt) -92.2 -184.4 NOx (let) -76.4 -152.7 SO? (let) -5.2 -8.8 TSL5 CO2 (Mt) -205.0 -411.5 NOx (let) -168.1 -337.1 SO? (1et) -30.4 -59.6

a NegatIve values refer to a reductIOn compared to the Reference case

EA-19Table EA.16 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case NEMS

-BT plus Exogenous Results' Cumulative 2000-2030 Cumulative

2015-2038 TSL 1 CO NO -3.8 -6.1 NOx (kt) -3.6 -7.3 SO (kt) 0.0 0.0 TSL A CO NO -4.9 -7.8 NOx (kt) -4.6 -9.2 SO kt -1.0 -1.8 TSL 2 CO NO -12.4 -20.0 NOx kt -11.8 -23.9 SO (kt) -1.1 -2.0 TSL B CO (Mt) -84.1 -137.1 NOx kt -81.5 -164.6 SO (kt) -3.2 -6.2 TSL 4 CO NO -86.7 -141.3 NOx (kt) -83.8 -169.2 SO kt) -5.5 -10.5 TSL 5 CO (Mt) -194.4 -322.0 NOx (kt) -194.4 -373.1 SO (kt) -32.4 -63.9 a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case 

### Table EA.16 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case NEMS-BT plus Cumulative Cumulative Exogenous Resultsa 2000-2030 2015-2038 TSL 1 CO2(Mt) -3.8 -6.1 NOx (kt) -3.6 -7.3 SO:, (kt) 0.0 0.0 TSLA CO2(Mt) -4.9 -7.8 NOx (kt) -4.6 -9.2 SO? (kt) -1.0 -1.8 TSL2 CO2 (Mt) -12.4 -20.0 NOx (kt) -11.8 -23.9 SO? (kt) -1.1 -2.0 TSLB CO? (Mt) -84.1 -137.1 NOx (kt) -81.5 -164.6 S02 (kt) -3.2 -6.2 TSL4 CO? (Mt) -86.7 -141.3 NOx (kt) -83.8 -169.2 S02 (kt) -5.5 -10.5 TSL5 CO? (Mt) -194.4 -322.0 NOx (kt) -194.4 -373.1 SO? (kt) -32.4 -63.9

a NegatIve values refer to a reductIOn compared to the Reference case

EA-20Table EA.17 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast,

NEMS-BT plus Exogenous Results' Cumulative 2000

-2030 Cumulative

2015-2038 TSL 1 CO NO 0.7 3.2 NOx (kt) -3.8 -7.7 SO2 (kt) 0.0 0.0 TSL A CO NO 0.7 3.5 NOx (kt) -4.8 -9.6 SO kt -1.0 -1.8 TSL 2 CO NO 2.2 10.1 NOx (kt) -12.6 -25.4 SO (kt) -1.1 -2.0 TSL B CO Mt 11.5 59.4 NOx (kt) -86.8 -175.8 SO (kt) -3.3 -6.5 TSL 4 CO Mt 11.5 60.3 NOx kt -89.2 -180.6 SO (kt) -5.7 -10.9 TSL 5 CO (Mt) 11.4 101.6 NOx (kt) -197.1 -399.6 SO, (kt) -34.0 -67.2

Relative to the Base Case Hi h Growth)

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case Table EA.17 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case { High Growth) NEMS-BT plus Cumulative Cumulative Exogenous Results' 2000-2030 2015-2038 TSL 1 CO2(Mt) 0.7 3.2 NOx (kt) -3.8 -7.7 SO? (kt) 0.0 0.0 TSLA CO2(Mt) 0.7 3.5 NOx (kt) -4.8 -9.6 SO? (kt) -1.0 -1.8 TSL2 CO2 (Mt) 2.2 10.1 NOx (kt) -12.6 -25.4 SO? (kt) 

### -1.1 -2.0 TSLB CO? (Mt) 11.5 59.4 NOx (kt) -86.8 -175.8 S02 (kt) -3.3 -6.5 TSL4 CO? (Mt) 11.5 60.3 NOx (kt) -89.2 -180.6 S02 (kt) -5.7 -10.9 TSL5 CO? (Mt) 11.4 101.6 NOx (kt) -197.1 -399.6 SO? (kt) -34.0 -67.2

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case

EA-2lTable EA.18 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast,

NEMS-BT plus Exogenous Results' Cumulative 2000

-2030 Cumulative

2015-2038 TSL 1 CO (Mt) -1.5 -2.7 NOx (kt) -3.4 -6.7 SO (kt) 0.0 0.0 TSL A CO, (Mt) -2.0 -3.7 NOx (kt) -4.3 -8.4 SO (kt -0.9 -1.7 TSL 2 CO. NO -4.7 -8.7 NOx (kt) -10.9 -21.8 SO kt) -1.0 -1.9 TSL B CO (Mt) -33.0 -60.8 NOx (kt) -74.2 -148.3 SO (kt -3.0 -5.7 TSL 4 CO (Mt) -34.3 -63.3 NOx (kt) -76.4 -152.7 SO lct -5.2 -9.8 TSL 5 CO, (Mt) -82.6 -155.3 NOx (kt) -168.1 -337.1 SO (kt) -30.4 -59.6

Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth)

a Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case Table EA.18 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case (Low Growth) NEMS-BT plus Cumulative Cumulative Exogenous Results' 2000-2030 2015-2038 TSL 1 CO2(Mt) -1.5 -2.7 NOx (kt) -3.4 -6.7 SO? (kt) 0.0 0.0 TSLA CO? (Mt) -2.0 -3.7 NOx (kt) -4.3 -8.4 SO? (kt) -0.9 -1.7 TSL2 CO? (Mt) -4.7 -8.7 NOx (kt) -10.9 -21.8 S02 (kt) -1.0 -1.9 TSLB CO? (Mt) -33.0 -60.8 NOx (kt) -74.2 -148.3 S02 (kt) -3.0 -5.7 TSL4 CO? (Mt) -34.3 -63.3 NOx (kt) -76.4 -152.7 S02 (kt) -5.2 -9.8 TSL5 CO? (Mt) -82.6 -155.3 NOx (kt) -168.1 -337.1 SO? (kt) -30.4 -59.6

a NegatIve values refer to a reductIOn comparedto the Reference case

EA-22Table EA.19 Discounted Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case Cumulative 2015-2038 NEMS-BT plus 7% Exogenous Resultsa (Not Discounted) Discount Rate 3% Discount Rate TSL 1 CO (Mt) -6.1 -1.6 -3.4 NOx kt -7.3 -1.7 -3.8 SO2 (kt) 0.0 0.0 0.0 TSL A CO2 (Mt) -7.8 -2.1 -4.3 NOx (kt) -9.2 -2.1 -4.7 SO2 -1.8 -0.4 -0.9 TSL 2 CO (Mt) -20.0 -5.3 -10.9 NOx (kt) -23.9 -5.4 -12.3 SO2 (kt) -2.0 -0.5 -1.0 TSL B CO2 NO -137.1 -36.2 -74.8 NOx (kt -164.6 -37.3 -84.5 SO (kt) -6.2 -1.4 -3.2 TSL 4 CO (Mt) -141.3 -37.3 -77.1 NOx (kt) -169.2 -38.3 -84.5 SO (kt) -10.5 -2.4 1 -5.4 TSL 5 CO (Mt) -322.0 -83.9 -174.9 NOx (kt) -373.1 -84.4 -191.5 SO, kt -63.9 -14.7 -33.0 Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference case 

### Table EA.19 Discounted Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case Cumulative2015-2038 NEMS-BT plus 7% 3% Exogenous Results' (Not Discounted) Discount Rate Discount Rate TSL 1 CO? (Mt) -6.1 -1.6 -3.4 NOx (let) -7.3 -1.7 -3.8 S02 (let) 0.0 0.0 0.0 TSLA CO2(Mt) -7.8 -2.1 -4.3 NOx (let) -9.2 -2.1 -4.7 SO? (let) -1.8 -0.4 -0.9 TSL2 CO2(Mt) -20.0 -5.3 -10.9 NOx (let) -23.9 -5.4 -12.3 SO? (let) -2.0 -0.5 -1.0 TSLB CO2 (Mt) -137.1 -36.2 -74.8 NOx (let) -164.6 -37.3 -84.5 SO? (let) -6.2 -1.4 -3.2 TSL4 CO2 (Mt) -141.3 -37.3 -77.1 NOx (let) -169.2 -38.3 -84.5 SO? (let) -10.5 -2.4 -5.4 TSL5 CO2(Mt) -322.0 -83.9 -174.9 NOx (let) -373.1 -84.4 -191.5 SO? (let) -63.9 -14.7 -33.0

a Negative values refer to a reductIOn comparedto the Reference case

EA-235.1.2 Fuel-Cycle Emissions

As discussed earlier, fuel-cycle emissions refer to the emissions associated with the amount of energy used in the upstream and downstream production of energy, including energy used at the power plant. The amount of energy used to perform the upstream processes is not directly linked to the downstream consumption of these fuels. For this reason, changes in upstream emissions due to today's standards are not counted in NEMS-BT. Although DOE does not report actual estimates of the effects of standards on upstream emissions, the emissions factors described here provide the reader with a sense for the possible magnitude of the effects. DOE took estimates of upstream emissions for CO2 and NO,, from a study conducted in 1993 by Mark A. DeLuchi (sometimes spelled DeLucci), Ph.D., at Argonne National Laboratory.' DeLuchi provides estimates of full fuel-cycle emissions factors for C02, methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs), and NOX from coaland natural gas production.' DOE took the emission factor for SO2 from the EPA Report, AP42, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors.6 The EPA AP-42 report notes that coal cleaning is the primary source for upstream SO2 emissions from coal production, so the emission factor for SO2 reflects only the coal-cleaning process. Transportation of coal is not addressed in EPA's study. Emission factor estimates and corresponding percentages of contributions of upstream emissions from coal and natural gas production, relative to power plant emissions, are shown in Table EA.20 for C02, SO2, and NOR. The percentage relative to power plant emissions provides a means to estimate upstream emission savings based on the savings from the power plant. The values shown in Table EA.20 represent emissions from upstream processes as mass in grams (g) per deliverable energy in gigajoules (GJ) to end-use consumers.
Table EA.20 Estimated Upstream Emission Factors and Relative Percentages to Direct

Power Plant Combustion Emissions Coal Emission Factor (g/GJ) COZ
so, NO,, 8,147 29.2 41.7 % of Combustion

Emissions 2.7 0.9 5.8 Natur

Emission Factor (g/GJ) 20,000 0 153 al Gas

% of Combustion Emissions 11.9 0 40 Relative to the entire fuel cycle, DeLuchi estimates that approximately eight percent by mass of emissions from coal production are due to mining, preparation that includes cleaning the coal, and transportation from the mine to the power plant. Transportation emissions include emissions from the fuel used by the mode of transportation that moves the coal from the mine to the power plant. Also, DeLuchi estimates that approximately 14 percent of emissions from natural gas production results from upstream processes. In sum, emissions factors relative to power plant emissions are a relatively small proportion of the energy losses attributable to

EA-24 

### 5.1.2 Fuel-Cycle Emissions
As discussed earlier, fuel-cycle emissions refer to the emissions associated with the amount ofenergy used in the upstream and downstream production ofenergy, including energy used at the powerplant. The amount ofenergyused to performthe upstreamprocesses is not directly linked to the downstream consumption ofthese fuels. For this reason, changes in upstream emissions due to today's standards are not counted inNEMS-BT. Although DOE does notreport actual estimates ofthe effects ofstandards onupstream emissions, the emissions factors described here provide the reader with a sense for the possible magnitude ofthe effects.
DOE took estimates ofupstream emissions for CO2 

### andNOx 

### from a study conducted in 1993 byMarkA. DeLuchi (sometimes spelled DeLucci), Ph.D., at Argonne National Laboratory.5 DeLuchi provides estimates offull fuel-cycle emissions factors for CO2 , methane (CH4), 

### carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs), and NOx 

### from coal and natural gas production.5 DOE tookthe emission factor for S02 from the EPA Report, AP42, Compilation of AirPollutantEmission Factors. 6 

### The EPA AP-42 report notes that coal cleaning is the primary source for upstream S02 emissions from coal production, so the emission factor for S02 reflects only the coal-cleaning process. Transportation ofcoal is not addressed in EPA's study.
Emission factor estimates and corresponding percentages ofcontributions ofupstream emissions from coal and natural gas production, relative to powerplant emissions, are shown in Table EA.20 for CO2 , S02' and NOx• 

### The percentage relative to powerplant emissions provides a means to estimate upstream emission savings based on the savings from the powerplant. The values shown in Table EA.20 represent emissions from upstream processes as mass in grams (g) per deliverable energy in gigajoules (GJ) to end-use consumers. 

### Table EA.20 Estimated Upstream Emission Factors and Relative Percentages to Direct PowerPlant Combustion Emissions Coal Natural Gas Emission Factor % ofCombustion Emission Factor % ofCombustion (gIGJ) Emissions (gIG./) Emissions CO2 8,147 2.7 20,000 11.9 S02 29.2 0.9 0 0 NOx 41.7 5.8 153 40


### Relative to the entire fuel cycle, DeLuchi estimates that approximately eight percentby mass ofemissions from coal production are due to mining, preparation that includes cleaning the coal, and transportation from the mine to the powerplant. Transportation emissions include emissions from the fuel usedby the mode oftransportation that moves the coal from the mine to the powerplant. Also, DeLuchi estimates that approximately 14 percent ofemissions from natural gas productionresults from upstreamprocesses. In sum, emissions factors relative to powerplant emissions are a relatively small proportion ofthe energy losses attributable to

EA-24upstream processes

. With the exception of NO,, emissions from natural gas production, upstream

emissions are less than 12 percent of power plant emissions. 5.2 Wetlands / Endangered and Threatened Species / Cultural Resources This action is not site-specific, and would not affect land disturbance. Therefore, DOE does not expect this action to impact the quality of wetlands, or threatened or endangered species. Further, DOE does not expect this action to impact cultural resources such as historical or archaeological sites. 5.3 Socioeconomic Impacts DOE's analysis has shown that the increase in the first cost of purchasing a more efficient furnace or boiler at today's standard level is offset by a reduction in the LCC of owning a more efficient piece of equipment

. In other words, the owner will pay lower operating costs over the life of the equipment even though the first cost increases

. For non-weatherized gas furnaces, one percent of consumers realize LCC savings at today's standard level (TSL B), and zero percent realize a net cost. ' For a complete discussion of the LCC impacts on consumers (including impacts for the other product classes), see Chapter 8 of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4 For the subgroup of consumers that are low-income, DOE determined that for nonweatherized gas furnaces, today's standard level would result in slightly less favorable results compared to the full sample of consumers

. For the subgroup of consumers that are seniors, the average LCC impact is similar to that for the full sample of consumers

. For a complete discussion of the LCC impacts on low-income and senior households , see Chapter 11 of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4 5.4 Environmental Justice Impacts In view of Executive Order 12898 of February 11, 1994, "Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations ," DOE examined the effect of more stringent energy efficiency standards on low-income households. As described in the LCC subgroup analysis, in Chapter 11 of the TSD,' DOE found that there were no disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects on low-income populations that would result from today's energy efficiency standards.

a This section gives quantitative results for non-weatherized gas furnaces because this product class accounts for close to 90 percent of all furnace and boiler shipments.
EA-25 upstreamprocesses. With the exception ofNOx emissions from natural gas production, upstream emissions are less than 12 percent ofpowerplant emissions.


### 5.2 Wetlands / Endangered and Threatened Species / CulturalResources
This action is not site-specific, and would not affect land disturbance. Therefore, DOE does not expectthis action to impact the quality ofwetlands, orthreatened or endangered species. Further, DOE does not expect this action to impact cultural resources such as historical or archaeological sites.


### 5.3 Socioeconomic Impacts
DOE's analysis has shownthat the increase in the first cost ofpurchasing a more efficient furnace orboiler at today's standard level is offsetby a reduction inthe LCC ofowning a more efficientpiece ofequipment. In other words, the ownerwill pay lower operating costs over the life ofthe equipment even though the first cost increases. Fornon-weatherized gas furnaces, one percent ofconsumers realize LCC savings at today's standard level (TSL B), and zero percent realize a net cost. a For a complete discussion ofthe Lec impacts on consumers (including impacts for the otherproduct classes), see Chapter 8 ofthe Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4
Forthe subgroup ofconsumers that are low-income, DOE determined that for nonweatherized gas furnaces, today's standard level wouldresult in slightly less favorable results comparedto the full sample ofconsumers. Forthe subgroup ofconsumers that are seniors, the average LCC impact is similar to that for the full sample ofconsumers. For a complete discussion ofthe LCC impacts onlow-income and seniorhouseholds, see Chapter 11 ofthe Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4


### 5.4 EnvironmentalJustice Impacts
In view ofExecutive Order 12898 ofFebruary 11, 1994, "FederalActions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations andLow-Income Populations," DOE examined the effect ofmore stringent energy efficiency standards on low-income households. As described inthe LCC subgroup analysis, in Chapter 11 ofthe TSD,1 DOE found that there were no disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects on low-income populations that would result from today's energy efficiency standards.

a This section gives quantitative results for non-weatherized gas furnaces because this product class accounts for close to 90 percent ofall furnace andboiler shipments.
EA-255.5 Energy Consumption Impacts Today's standard level for furnaces and boilers (TSL B) would result in the national energy savings shown in Table EA.2 1. Energy savings for the other four TSLs are also provided in Chapter 10 of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4 Table EA.21 Cumulative Energy Savings from Residential Furnaces and Boilers

Standards from 2015 to 2038 5 Trial Cumulative Primary

Standard Energy Level Saved (Quads) 0

TSL .20 1 0 TSL .25 A 0 TSL .69 2 3.2 TSL1 B 3

TSL .34 4 TSL

6.76
5.6 Noise and Aesthetics Today's action is not likely to affect the sound power levels, sound quality levels, oraesthetics associated with residential furnaces and boilers. The noise and aesthetics of the moreefficient equipment covered under this EA would be virtually no different from equipment being installed today. 5.7 Summary of Environmental Impacts Table EA.22 provides a summary of the analysis results to aid the reader in discerning the benefits and burdens for the different TSLs as well as the no-action alternative. 

### 5.5 Energy Consumption Impacts Today's standard level for furnaces andboilers (TSL B) wouldresult inthe national energy savings shown in Table EA.2l. Energy savings for the other four TSLs are also provided in Chapter 10 ofthe Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.4


### Table EA.21 Cumulative Energy Savings from Residential Furnaces and Boilers Standards from 2015 to 2038 Trial Standard Level TSL 1 TSLA TSL2 TSLB TSL4 Cumulative Primary Energy Saved (Quads) 0.20 0.25 0.69 3.21 3.34


### 5.6 Noise andAesthetics TSL5 6.76

Today's action is not likely to affect the soundpower levels, sound quality levels, or aesthetics associated with residential furnaces andboilers. The noise and aesthetics ofthe moreefficient equipment coveredunderthis EA wouldbe virtually no different from equipmentbeing installed today.


### 5.7 Summary ofEnvironmentalImpacts
Table EA.22 provides a summary ofthe analysis results to aid the reader in discerning the benefits and burdens for the different TSLs as well as the no-action alternative.

EA-26Table EA.22 Summary of the Analysis Results No-Action Trial Standard Level Alternative I A 2 B 4 5 Cumulative Emission Reductions* CO2 (Mt) 0.0 -6.1 -7.8 -20.0 -137.1 -141.3 -322.0 NOx (kt) 0.0 -7.3 -9.2 -23.9 -164.6 -169.2 -373.1 Cumulative Primary Energy Saved (Quads)* 0.0 0.20 0.25 0.69 3.21 3.34 6.76 Socioeconomic Impacts - Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace, Mean LCC Savings All Consumers NA $2 $2 $15 $55 $55 ($865) Low-Income Subgroup NA $2 $2 $11 $39 $39 ($821) Senior Subgroup NA $1 $1 $11 $36 $36 ($806) Environmental Justice Impacts None None None None None None Wetlands/Endangered and Threatened None None None None None None Species/Cultural Resources Impacts Fuel-Cycle (Upstream) Emissions Impacts None **   **  ** I Noise and Aesthetics Impacts None None None None None None * Cumulative total is over a time period starting in 2015 and ending in 2038. The reductions include impacts at power plants (both physical reductions and emissions credits) and at the household level. ** DOE does not report actual estimates of the effects of standards on upstream emissions, but section 5.1.2 provides a sense of the possible magnitude of effects. Today's energy efficiency standards for furnaces and boilers, at TSL B, would not result in significant environmental impacts. Today's standards will apply to all covered products offered for sale in the United States and its Territories, with a compliance date of January 1, 2015. DOE has found that today's standards represent the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. DOE found the benefits to the Nation of today's standards (energy savings, consumer average LCC savings, national NPV increase, and emission reductions) outweigh the costs (loss of manufacturer NPV, and LCC increases for some consumers). The justification for selecting today's action, TSL B, over the other TSLs considered is fully explained in Section V.C, Conclusions, of the final rule. The final rule is available on the internet at: http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/furnaces boilers.html Today's standards represent an improvement in energy efficiency (relative to the baseline equipment) of 13 percent for non-weatherized gas furnaces (from 78-percent AFUE to 90- percent AFUE), 4 percent for weatherized gas furnaces (from 78-percent AFUE to 81-percent AFUE), 17 percent for mobile home gas furnaces (from 75-percent AFUE to 90-percent AFUE), 5 percent for oil-fired furnaces (from 78-percent AFUE to 82-percent AFUE), 2 percent for gas boilers (from 80-percent AFUE to 82-percent AFUE), and 5 percent for oil boilers (from 80- percent AFUE to 84-percent AFUE).
EA-27 

### T bi EA 22 S

a e 

# . ummaryo

### fth AI' R It e nalYSIS esu S No-Action Trial Standard Level Alternative 1 A 2 B 4 5 Cumulative Emission Reductions* CO2 (Mt) 0.0 -6.1 -7.8 -20.0 -137.1 -141.3 -322.0 NOx (kt) 0.0 -7.3 -9.2 -23.9 -164.6 -169.2 -373.1 Cumulative Primary Energy Saved (Quads)* 0.0 0.20 0.25 0.69 3.21 3.34 6.76 Socioeconomic Impacts Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace, Mean LCC Savings

All Consumers NA $2 $2 $15 $55 $55 ($865) Low-Income Subgroup NA $2 $2 $11 $39 $39 ($821) Senior Subgroup NA $1 $1 $11 $36 $36 ($806) Environmental Justice Impacts None None None None None None Wetlands/Endangered and Threatened None None None None None None Species/Cultural Resources Impacts Fuel-Cycle (Upstream) Emissions Impacts None **   **  ** Noise and Aesthetics Impacts None None None None None None * Cumulative total is over a time period starting in 2015 and ending in 2038. Thereductions include impacts at powerplants (both physical reductions and emissions credits) and at the household level. ** DOE does not report actual estimates ofthe effects ofstandards onupstream emissions, but section 5.1.2 provides a sense ofthe possible magnitude ofeffects. 

### Today's energy efficiency standards for furnaces and boilers, at TSL B, would notresult in significant environmental impacts. Today's standards will apply to all coveredproducts offered for sale in the United States and its Territories, with a compliance date ofJanuary 1, 2015.
DOE has found that today's standards represent the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economicallyjustified. DOE found the benefits to the Nation oftoday's standards (energy savings, consumer average LCC savings, national NPV increase, and emission reductions) outweigh the costs (loss ofmanufacturerNPV, and LCe increases for some consumers). Thejustification for selecting today's action, TSL B, overthe otherTSLs considered is fully explained in Section V.C, Conclusions, ofthe final rule. The final rule is available onthe internet at http://www.eere.energy.gov /buildings/appliance_standards/residential/furnaces

_boilers.html Today's standards represent an improvement in energy efficiency (relative to the baseline equipment) of 13 percent for non-weatherized gas furnaces (from 78-percent AFUE to 90- percentAFUE), 4 percent for weatherized gas furnaces (from 78-percentAFUE to 81-percent AFUE), 17 percent for mobile home gas furnaces (from 75-percent AFUE to 90-percentAFUE), 5percent for oil-fired furnaces (from 78-percentAFUE to 82-percent AFUE), 2 percent for gas boilers (from 80-percent AFUE to 82-percentAFUE), and 5 percent for oil boilers (from 80- percentAFUE to 84-percentAFUE).
EA-27In the 24-year period after the new standards become effective, the Nation will save

about 3.21 quads of primary energy. Additionally, these energy savings will reduce emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases by 137.1 Mt of CO2 and 164.6 kt of NOR. 

### In the 24-yearperiod after the new standards become effective, the Nation will save about 3.21 quads ofprimary energy. Additionally, these energy savings will reduce emissions of airpollutants and greenhouse gases by 137.1 Mt ofe02 

### and 164.6 kt ofNOx.

EA-28REFERENCES

U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Building Research and Standards. Notice of the Public Workshop and Availability of the Framework Document for Residential Furnaces and Boilers. 2001. (Posted November 5, 2001) <http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance-standards/> 2. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products. Technical Support Document: Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products; Residential Furnaces and Boilers - NOPR Version. 2005. Washington, D.C. <http://www. eere. energy.gov/buildings/appliance-standards/residential/furnaces_boilers. html> 3. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2005: With Projections Through 2025. February, 2005. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-03 83 (2005). <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2005).pdf> 4. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products. Technical Support Document: Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products; Residential Furnaces and Boilers - SNOPR Version. 2007. Washington, D.C. 5. DeLuchi, M. A. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from the Use of Transportation Fuels and Electricity, Volume 2: Appendixes A-S. November, 1993. Argonne National Laboratory. Argonne, IL. Report No. ANL/ESD/TM-22-Vol.2. 6. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency. Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, AP-42, Fifth Edition, Volume I: Stationary Point and Area Sources, Chapter 11, Mineral Products Industry

. 1995. (Posted November) <http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief /ap42c1 l.html> 7. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Technical Support Document: Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products; Residential Furnaces and Boilers. 2007. Washington, D.C. <http://www. eere. energy. gov/buildings/appliance-standards/residential/furnaces_boilers. html>

EA-29 

### REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department ofEnergy-Office ofBuilding Research and Standards. Notice of the Public Workshop andAvailability of the FrameworkDocumentforResidentialFurnaces andBoilers. 

### 2001. (Posted November 5, 2001) <http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance

_standards/>
2. U.S. Department ofEnergy-Office ofEnergy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy Conservation Program for ConsumerProducts. Technical SupportDocument: Energy Conservation Programfor ConsumerProducts; ResidentialFurnaces andBoilersNOPR Version. 

### 2005. Washington, D.C. <http://www

. eere.energy.gov!buildings/appliance _standards/residential/furnaces_boilers. html>
3. U.S. Department ofEnergy

- Energy Information Administration.AnnualEnergy Outlook2005: With Projections Through 2025. 

### February, 2005. Washington, DC. ReportNo. DOE/EIA-0383(2005). <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2005).pdf>
4. U.S. Department ofEnergy-Office ofEnergy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy Conservation Program for ConsumerProducts. Technical SupportDocument: Energy Conservation Program for ConsumerProducts; ResidentialFurnaces andBoilers

- SNOPR Version. 

### 2007. Washington, D.C.
5. DeLuchi, M. A. Emissions of Greenhouse Gasesfrom the Use of Transportation Fuels andElectricity, Volume 

### 2: AppendixesA-S. 

### November, 1993. Argonne National Laboratory. Argonne, 

### IL. ReportNo. ANLIESD/TM-22-Vo1.2.
6. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Compilation of AirPollutantEmission Factors, AP-42, Fifth Edition, Volume 1: 

### Stationary PointandAreaSources, Chapter 11, 

### Mineral ProductsIndustry. 

### 1995. (PostedNovember) <http://www.epa.gov/ttnichief/ap42c 11.html>
7. U.S. Department ofEnergy-Office ofEnergy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Technical SupportDocument: Energy Conservation Programfor ConsumerProducts; ResidentialFurnaces andBoilers. 

### 2007. Washington, D.C. <http://www.eere.energy.gov!buildings/appliance _standards/residential/furnaces_boilers. html>

EA-29