## 1

**Technical Support Document: Calculating Benefit Per**
**- Ton estimates** 

Overview The estimates of the full attainment PM2.5 

## co-benefits in the final Ozone Regulatory Impact Analysis are a composite of the benefits of the modeled attainment scenario and benefits calculated using benefit per

-ton metrics. This technical support document (TSD) describes the steps we took to calculate the benefit per

-ton metrics that were used as the basis for estimating the PM2.5 

## co-benefits. This document focuses specifically on the steps followed to calculate the benefit per ton metrics and makes extensive reference to previous documents that describe the air quality modeling data that provided the inputs to these benefit estimates. Summary of Calculation Steps The basic calculation steps were as follows:
1. Model the national changes in ambient PM2.5

## associated with 25%, 50% and 75% reductions in PM2.5 

## precursors from various classes of industrial sources 2. Input the changes in air quality to the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) and estimate monetized benefit estimates of these air quality improvements1 

## 3. Divide the total monetized benefit by the total emission reduction Below we provide an expanded discussion of each of these three steps. Generating Modeled PM2.5 

## Concentrations EPA employed a Response Surface Model (RSM) to generate estimated PM2.5 

## concentrations. The RSM uses advanced statistical techniquesto characterize the relationship between a very complex air quality

model such as CMAQ and input parameters in a highly economical manner.The RSM is simply a reduced

-form prediction model that uses statistical correlation structures to approximate model functionsthrough the design ofcomplex multi

dimensionalexperiments. Additional technical detail regarding the model may be found in the technical support document for the PM2.5 

## RIA.2


## In this version of the PM2.5 

## RSM, EPA selected 12 emission control factors based on precursor emission ty

pe and source category. The selection of factors was based on three fundamental areas:

1 

### Abt Associates, Incorporated. Environmental Benef its Mapping and Analysis Program (Version 2.4). Prepared for Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Air Benefits and Cost group. Research Triangle Park, NC. 2005. 2 

### U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, February 2006. Technical Support Document for the Proposed PM NAAQS Rule, Response Surface Modeling, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC (Docket # OAR_2001_0017_0770).

## 2

1. ty pe of precursor emission (NOx, SOx, NH3

## , POC, PEC, or VOC), 2. emission source category (EGU point sources, NonEGU point sources, area sources, agricultural sources, nonroad sources, and mobile sources) 3. location of urban areas contributing to residual PM2.5 

## after implementation of the Clean Air Interstate Rule in 2015 and geographically distinct in contribution to sources of PM2.5 

## concentrations. This version of the PM2.5 

## RSM uses the 2015 CAIR inventory and included the following 12 source pollutant factors:
1. NOx EGU = NOx IPM EGU point source emissions 2. NOx NonEGU Point and Area = NOx IPM Non

-EGU point source, area source, and agricultural source emissions 3. NOx Mobile = NOx nonroad source and mobile source emissions 4. SOx EGU = SOx IPM EGU point source emissions 5. SOx NonEGU Point = SOx IPM Non

-EGU point source emissions 6. SOx Area = SOx area source and agricultural source emissions 7. NH3

## Area = Ammonia area source and agricultural source emissions 8. NH3 

## Mobile = Ammonianon

-road source and mobile source sources 9. POC/PEC Point (EGU and NonEGU) = Elemental carbon and organic carbon IPM EGU point source and IPM Non

-EGU point source emissions 10. POC/PEC Mobile = Elemental carbon and organic carbon nonroad source and mobile source emissions 11. POC/PEC Area= Elemental carbon and organic carbon area source and agricultural source emissions 12. VOC All = Volatile organic carbon IPM EGU point source, IPM Non

-EGU point source, area source, agricultural source, nonroad source, and mobile source emissions

One of the chief analytical benefits of the RSM is that it can model the change in air quality resulting from a change in emissions from any given source/pollutant factor while holding all other factors constant. For, example, the RSM can estimate the improvement in PM2.5 

## air quality resulting from a 50% reduction in area source NH3 

## while holding other emissions constant. This ability to hold other emissions constant is essential to the process of creating benefit per ton estimates that are specific to each source/pollutant combination. To generate estimates of changes in air quality associated with emission reductions in each source/pollutant combination, we simulated a 25%, 50% and 75% reduction in each of the 12 factors, each time holding all other factors constant; this step generated 36 different air quality modeling runs. For each modeling run, the RSM produces 36 km CMAQ air quality grids suitable for input to the BenMAP model for subsequent generation of benefits estimates. Estimating Monetary

Value of Human Health Benefits We used the BenMAP model to estimate changes in human health resulting from each of these modeling scenarios. The benefits assessment used techniques, health impact functions and

## 3

valuation functions that were consistent with the Regulatory Impact Analysis that supported the PM2.5 

## National Ambient Air Quality Standards.3 

## Readers interested in a comprehensive discussion of these methods and functions may refer to chapter 5 of this document. The BenMAP model produced estimates of the change in the incidence of health effects and estimated a monetary

value for the modeled air quality change in each of the 12 source/pollutant combinations. Consistent with the PM2.5 

## NAAQS RIA, we estimated total benefits for each modeling scenario using two different PM2.5 

## mortality functions: Pope et al (2002),Laden et. al (2006) and each of the 12 Expert Functions, at 3% and 7% discount rates. We developed these estimates for two future years: 2015 and 2030. We chose 2015 because it was the year in which the RSM

-derived air quality changes were estimated to occur. We chose 2030 to produce benefit per-ton estimates that could be used to estimate the PM2.5 

## co-benefits of attaining the selected and alternate ozone standards in San Joaquin and South Coast in 2030. Considering alternate years affects the estimated population exposed, which in turn effects the total benefit estimate. Calculating the benefit per ton estimates Having modeled the PM2.5 

## air quality change and estimated the total valuation for each scenario, the final step was to estimate the benefit per ton of PM2.5 

## precursor abated. This calculation step involved simply

dividing each valuation estimate by its corresponding reduction in PM2.5 

## precursor tons abated. For example, in a given scenario we reduced emissions by 1,000 tons and benefits were $2,000,000 then the benefit per ton would be $2,000.

Results Table 1 through table 4 below summarize the benefit per ton estimates for each of the 36 scenarios.

3 

### U.S. EPA, Regulatory Impact Analysis for the PM 2.5 NAAQS

. 2006.

## 4

**Table 1: Estimated PM2.5 B** **enefit per Ton for the Year 2015 (3% Discount Rate)** Source/Pollutant Combination % Reduction Pope et al. Laden et al. Expert A Expert B Expert C Carbon Area 25% $251,001 $536,416 $760,305 $586,982 $580,238 50% $245,113 $522,275 $762,716 $589,242 $582,534 75% $239,852 $509,527 $764,581 $591,097 $584,434 Carbon Mobile 25% $181,715 $388,988 $579,360 $445,831 $441,650 50% $179,580 $383,999 $582,718 $448,510 $444,315 75% $176,887 $377,770 $585,660 $450,872 $446,664 Carbon EGU & Non

- EGU 25% $153,593 $330,219 $456,061 $352,038 $347,625 50% $153,686 $330,019 $461,833 $356,597 $352,134 75% $152,924 $327,952 $467,272 $360,895 $356,384 NH3 Area 25% $12,809 $27,435 $39,221 $30,250 $29,910 50% $12,901 $27,578 $40,642 $31,366 $31,004 75% $12,960 $27,651 $42,016 $32,450 $32,066 NH3 Mobile 25% $29,108 $62,378 $74,722 $58,088 $57,078 50% $32,049 $68,633 $83,195 $64,664 $63,561 75% $34,987 $74,875 $91,559 $71,160 $69,965 Nox EGU 25% $2,681 $5,733 $8,596 $6,617 $6,553 50% $3,240 $6,931 $10,196 $7,857 $7,774 75% $3,802 $8,135 $11,788 $9,090 $8,990 Nox Mobile 25% $4,357 $9,350 $12,427 $9,630 $9,480 50% $4,754 $10,190 $13,588 $10,534 $10,369 75% $5,133 $10,989 $14,730 $11,424 $11,245 Nox NEGU 25% $2,599 $5,578 $7,535 $5,821 $5,746 50% $2,956 $6,342 $8,568 $6,621 $6,534 75% $3,311 $7,100 $9,592 $7,415 $7,317 Sox Area 25% $13,200 $28,264 $45,177 $34,611 $34,410 50% $13,735 $29,407 $46,942 $35,974 $35,758 75% $14,171 $30,327 $48,673 $37,313 $37,081 Sox EGU 25% $25,214 $53,985 $82,355 $63,437 $62,785 50% $23,314 $49,676 $83,646 $64,474 $63,805 75% $21,104 $44,718 $84,856 $65,450 $64,763 Sox NEGU 25% $15,863 $33,944 $53,892 $41,361 $41,061 50% $15,672 $33,477 $55,134 $42,331 $42,016 75% $15,503 $33,056 $56,337 $43,276 $42,943 VOC 25% $339 $725 $1,092 $841 $833 50% $426 $912 $1,341 $1,034 $1,022 75% $512 $1,096 $1,588 $1,225 $1,211

## 5

**Table 1 Continued: Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Year 2015 (3% Discount Rate)**  Source/Pollutan t Combination %

Reductio n Expert D Expert E Expert

F Expert

G Expert H Expert I Expert J Expert K Expert L Carbon Area 25% $411,799 $939,95 9 $530,23

1 $348,59

0 $437,771 $574,370 $469,245 $117,910 $427,151 50% $413,612 $942,07 5 $532,43

0 $349,94

4 $439,718 $576,566 $471,289 $118,097 $428,994 75% $41 5,170 $943,50 0 $534,27

4 $351,09

3 $441,388 $578,371 $473,029 $118,269 $430,562 Carbon Mobile 25% $313,015 $716,95 1 $402,85

0 $264,87

5 $332,821 $437,209 $356,854 $87,249 $321,096 50% $314,924 $720,88 4 $405,30

4 $266,42

2 $334,864 $439,824 $359,040 $87,595 $323,064 75% $316,611 $724,29 8 $407,47

2 $267,78

2 $336,670 $442,127 $360,971 $87,879 $324,801 Carbon EGU & Non
-EGU 25% $246,335 $564,40 7 $317,46

2 $208,43

0 $261,931 $344,128 $280,855 $67,400 $256,301 50% $249,580 $571,34 8 $321,60

9 $211,14

1 $265,384 $348,575 $284,545 $68,257 $259,698 75% $252,634 $577,87 8 $325,51

7 $213,68

2 $268,635 $352,765 $288,022 $69,033 $262,894 NH3 Area 25% $21,209 $48,522 $27,298 $17,952 $22,549 $29,609 $24,175 $5,835 $21,936 50% $21,989 $50,257 $28,307 $18,606 $23,379 $30,690 $25,064 $6,044 $22,756 75% $22,746 $51,931 $29,286 $19,240 $24,185 $31,738 $25,927 $6,246 $23,552 NH3 Mobile 25% $40,599 $92,353 $52,245 $34,434 $43,136 $56,510 $46,215 $12,347 $43,373 50% $45,211 $102,80 1 $58,178 $38,336 $48,038 $62,925 $51,466 $13,674 $48,231 75% $49,769 $113,10 6 $64,041 $42,193 $52,882 $69,262 $56,656 $14,986 $53,032 Nox EGU 25% $4,645 $10,638 $5,971 $3,932 $4,939 $6,487 $5,295 $1,287 $4,765 50% $5,512 $12,617 $7,088 $4,667 $5,861 $7,696 $6,283 $1,534 $5,677 75% $6,375 $14,585 $8,200 $5,397 $6,778 $8,899 $7,266 $1,780 $6,584 Nox Mobile 25% $6,726 $15,373 $8,657 $5,696 $7,150 $9,385 $7,665 $1,926 $7,062 50% $7,360 $16,802 $9,472 $6,232 $7,824 $10,265 $8,386 $2,113 $7,729 75% $7,984 $18,205 $10,274 $6,760 $8,487 $11,131 $9,096 $2,297 $8,386 Nox NEGU 25% $4,075 $9,324 $5,245 $3,451 $4,332 $5,688 $4,644 $1,155 $4,255 50% $4,635 $10,600 $5,966 $3,925 $4,928 $6,469 $5,282 $1,316 $4,843 75% $5,191 $11,864 $6,682 $4,395 $5,518 $7,243 $5,915 $1,475 $5,427 Sox Area 25% $24,358 $55,941 $31,297 $20,600 $25,905 $34,064 $27,783 $6,643 $24,626 50% $25,314 $58,119 $32,529 $21,407 $26,921 $35,398 $28,873 $6,903 $25,615 75% $26,252 $60,254 $33,739 $22,199 $27,920 $36,707 $29,943 $7,158 $26,586 Sox EGU 25% $44,482 $101,88 4 $57,280 $37,615 $47,303 $62,148 $50,723 $11,997 $45,899

## 6 50% $45,208 $103,40 2 $58,225 $38,202 $48,081 $63,149 $51,557 $12,130 $46,667 75% $45,889 $104,81 7 $59,115 $38,748 $48,811 $64,088 $52,339 $12,241 $47,389 Sox NEGU 25% $29,075 $66,713 $37,402 $24,590 $30,92 1 $40,647 $33,160 $7,866 $29,545 50% $29,752 $68,230 $38,279 $25,156 $31,642 $41,590 $33,934 $8,037 $30,252 75% $30,411 $69,696 $39,133 $25,706 $32,344 $42,506 $34,686 $8,205 $30,942 VOC 25% $590 $1,352 $760 $499 $627 $824 $673 $168 $604 50% $725 $1 ,659 $934 $613 $770 $1,012 $826 $206 $745 75% $858 $1,965 $1,106 $727 $913 $1,198 $978 $244 $885


### Table 2: **Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Year 2015 ( 7** **% Discount Rate)** Source/Pollutant Combination % Reduction Pope et al. Laden et al. Expert A Expert B Expert C
Carbon Area 25% $228,199 $485,259 $686,905 $530,801 $524,727 50% $222,867 $472,494 $689,048 $532,808 $526,766 75% $218,105 $460,988 $690,704 $534,455 $528,454
Carbon Mobile 25% $165,207 $351,887 $523,347 $403,083 $399,318 50% $163,273 $347,384 $526,361 $405,486 $401,708 75% $160,837 $341,763 $529,000 $407,603 $403,813
Carbon EGU & Non

- EGU 25% $139,534 $298,613 $411,953 $318,264 $314,289 50% $139,627 $298,443 $417,162 $322,380 $318,361 75% $138,947 $296,587 $422,066 $326,257 $322,195
NH3 Area 25% $11,643 $24,816 $35,431 $27,351 $27,045 50% $11,728 $24,948 $36,713 $28,359 $28,033 75% $11,784 $25,015 $37,954 $29,338 $28,992
NH3 Mobile 25% $26,457 $56,422 $67,540 $52,558 $51,649 50% $29,130 $62,080 $75,195 $58,506 $57,512 75% $31,801 $67,726 $82,752 $64,380 $63,304
Nox EGU 25% $2,438 $5,187 $7,765 $5,984 $5,925 50% $2,947 $6,271 $9,211 $7,105 $7,030 75% $3,457 $7,359 $10,650 $8,220 $8,129
Nox Mobile 25% $3,960 $8,457 $11,228 $8,709 $8,573 50% $4,320 $9,216 $12,277 $9,526 $9,378 75% $4,665 $9,939 $13,308 $10,331 $10,170
Nox NEGU 25% $2,362 $5,045 $6,808 $5,264 $5,196 50% $2,686 $5,736 $7,741 $5,988 $5,909 75% $3,009 $6,422 $8,666 $6,706 $6,617
Sox Area 25% $12,002 $25,569 $40,802 $31,285 $31,105 50% $12,487 $26,602 $42,395 $32,517 $32,323 75% $12,884 $27,435 $43,959 $33,727 $33,518

## 7

Sox EGU 25% $22,918 $48,831 $74,383 $57,343 $56,757 50% $21,203 $44,946 $75,541 $58,274 $57,671 75% $19,207 $40,474 $76,625 $59,147 $58,528
Sox NEGU 25% $14,424 $30,709 $48,675 $37,388 $37,118 50% $14,253 $30,289 $49,794 $38,263 $37,979 75% $14,101 $29,911 $50,879 $39,115 $38,816
VOC 25% $308 $656 $987 $761 $753 50% $387 $825 $1,211 $935 $924 75% $466 $992 $1,434 $1,108 $1,095 

### Table 2 Continued: **Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Year 2015 (** **7 % Discount Rate)**  Source/Pollutan t Combination %

Reductio n Expert D Expert E Expert

F Expert

G Expert H Expert I Expert J Expert K Expert L

Carbon Area 25% $373,022 $848,71 1 $479,68

8 $316,09

3 $396,414 $519,443 $424,761 $108,330 $386,849 50% $374,626 $850,58 8 $481,64

0 $317,28

3 $398,139 $521,392 $426,573 $108,469 $388,480 75% $376,006 $851,84 8 $483,27

7 $318,29

4 $399,619 $522,993 $428,117 $108,601 $389,868

Carbon Mobile 25% $283,462 $647,26 9 $364,37

2 $240,10

4 $301,301 $395,318 $322,946 $80,125 $290,740 50% $285,171 $650,80 1 $366,57

2 $241,48

8 $303,130 $397,663 $324,904 $80,426 $292,503 75% $286,681 $653,86 5 $368,51

5 $242,70

3 $304,746 $399,726 $326,634 $80,672 $294,057

Carbon EGU & Non
-EGU 25% $223,062 $509,53 5 $287, 12

3 $188,92

3 $237,109 $311,140 $254,152 $61,904 $232,038 50% $225,995 $515,79 6 $290,86

8 $191,37

4 $240,229 $315,155 $257,487 $62,685 $235,107 75% $228,751 $521,68 4 $294,39

4 $193,66

9 $243,163 $318,935 $260,624 $63,390 $237,992
NH3 Area 25% $19,209 $43,809 $24,693 $16,275 $20,416 $26,774 $21,880 $5,362 $19,864 50% $19,914 $45,373 $25,604 $16,867 $21,166 $27,750 $22,683 $5,553 $20,604 75% $20,598 $46,883 $26,488 $17,440 $21,894 $28,697 $23,462 $5,737 $21,324

NH3 Mobile 25% $36,807 $83,419 $47,295 $31,255 $39,092 $51,137 $41,865 $11,361 $39,305 50% $40,985 $92,854 $52,664 $34,793 $43,531 $56,939 $46,619 $12,581 $43,705 75% $45,114 $102,15 9 $57,969 $38,291 $47,919 $62,671 $51,317 $13,787 $48,053
Nox EGU 25% $4,207 $9,605 $5,401 $3,565 $4,472 $5,866 $4,793 $1,183 $4,315 50% $4,993 $11,392 $6,412 $4,231 $5,306 $6,960 $5,687 $1,410 $5,141 75% $5,775 $13,169 $7,418 $4,894 $6,137 $8,048 $6,577 $1,636 $5,962 Nox Mobile 25% $6,094 $13,881 $7,833 $5,166 $6,475 $8,488 $6,939 $1,770 $6,395

## 8 50% $6,667 $1 5,172 $8,569 $5,652 $7,085 $9,284 $7,591 $1,941 $6,999 75% $7,233 $16,438 $9,295 $6,130 $7,686 $10,067 $8,235 $2,111 $7,595
Nox NEGU 25% $3,692 $8,419 $4,745 $3,129 $3,923 $5,144 $4,204 $1,061 $3,853 50% $4,199 $9,571 $5,397 $3,559 $4,462 $5,850 $4,782 $1,209 $4,386 75% $4,702 $10,713 $6,045 $3,986 $4,997 $6,551 $5,355 $1,356 $4,915
Sox Area 25% $22,051 $50,497 $28,300 $18,667 $23,444 $30,793 $25,136 $6,096 $22,293 50% $22,916 $52,462 $29,414 $19,397 $24,364 $31,998 $26,121 $6,334 $23,187 75% $23,765 $54,389 $30,508 $20,114 $25,267 $33,181 $27,089 $6,567 $24,066
Sox EGU 25% $40,272 $91,971 $51,799 $34,087 $42,813 $56,183 $45,893 $11,014 $41,548 50% $40,921 $93,334 $52,646 $34,612 $43,509 $57,080 $46,639 $11,129 $42,236 75% $41,529 $94,603 $53,441 $35,098 $44,161 $57,920 $47,339 $11,225 $42,880
Sox NEGU 25% $26,323 $60,222 $33,822 $22,284 $27,985 $36,745 $30,002 $7,221 $26,746 50% $26,934 $61,589 $34,613 $22,794 $28,636 $37,596 $30,700 $7,377 $27,384 75% $27,529 $62,911 $35,384 $23,291 $29,269 $38,422 $31,379 $7,529 $28,007
VOC 25% $534 $1,221 $688 $453 $568 $745 $609 $154 $547 50% $656 $1,498 $845 $556 $697 $915 $748 $189 $675 75% $777 $1,774 $1,001 $659 $826 $1,084 $886 $224 $802



### Table 3: **Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Y ear 20** **30 (** **3 % Discount Rate)**  Source/Pollutant Combination % Reduction Pope et al. Laden et al. Expert A Expert B Expert C
Carbon Area 25% 

### $374,102 $806,534 $1,148,838 $885,380 $875,257 50% 

### $365,490 $785,694 $1,152,611 $888,915 $878,847 75% 

### $357,521 $766,298 $1,155,533 $891,814 $881,815
Carbon Mobile 25% 

### $270,945 $585,078 $876,843 $673,635 $667,342 50% 

### $267,847 $577,787 $881,847 $677,638 $671,324 75% 

### $263,826 $568,439 $886,224 $681,162 $674,833
Carbon EGU & Non

- EGU 25% 

### $226,513 $490,917 $682,398 $525,889 $519,312 50% 

### $226,729 $490,822 $691,088 $532,747 $526,094 75% 

### $225,690 $487,973 $699,291 $539,224 $532,500
NH3 Area 25% 

### $18,799 $40,609 $58,096 $44,749 $44,232 50% 

### $18,949 $40,860 $60,234 $46,427 $45,878 75% 

### $19,055 $41,012 $62,304 $48,057 $47,476
NH3 Mobile 25% 

### $43,186 $93,336 $112,541 $87,313 $85,799 50% 

### $47,554 $102,707 $125,297 $97,195 $95,541 75% 

### $51,916 $112,050 $137,888 $106,956 $105,166
Nox EGU 25% 

### $3,954 $8,524 $12,898 $9,913 $9,817 50% 

### $4,784 $10,319 $15,302 $11,773 $11,649 75% 

### $5,618 $12,121 $17,694 $13,622 $13,471

## 9

Nox Mobile 25% 

### $6,509 $14,080 $18,741 $14,503 $14,272 50% 

### $7,107 $15,358 $20,507 $15,876 $15,623 75% 

### $7,678 $16,571 $22,243 $17,228 $16,953
Nox NEGU 25% 

### $3,857 $8,346 $11,328 $8,738 $8,624 50% 

### $4,390 $9,496 $12,886 $9,943 $9,812 75% 

### $4,920 $10,638 $14,431 $11,139 $10,990
Sox Area 25% 

### $19,670 $42,486 $68,134 $52,126 $51,818 50% 

### $20,463 $44,195 $70,772 $54,161 $53,831 75% 

### $21,110 $45,573 $73,360 $56,160 $55,807
Sox EGU 25% 

### $37,315 $80,580 $123,300 $94,841 $93,856 50% 

### $34,477 $74,125 $125,262 $96,420 $95,409 75% 

### $31,155 $66,648 $127,106 $97,910 $96,874
Sox NEGU 25% 

### $23,605 $50,959 $81,155 $62,196 $61,739 50% 

### $23,310 $50,241 $83,028 $63,659 $63,179 75% 

### $23,064 $49,630 $84,843 $65,083 $64,577
VOC 25% 

### $501 $1,080 $1,635 $1,257 $1,244 50% 

### $630 $1,361 $2,009 $1,546 $1,529 75% 

### $759 $1,638 $2,380 $1,833 $1,812


### Table 3 Continued: **Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Year 20 30**  **( 3** **% Discount Rate)** Source/Pollutant Combination %

Reduction Expert

D Expert E Expert F Expert G Expert H Expert I Expert J Expert K Expert L
Carbon Area 25% $619,350 

### $1,421,795 $799,196 $523,320 $658,809 $866,344 $706,626 $172,712 $642,217 50% $622,201 

### $1,425,132 $802,637 $525,475 $661,863 $869,783 $709,828 $173,097 $645,113 75% $624,645 

### $1,427,399 $805,517 $527,299 $664,477 $872,605 $712,550 $173,438 $647,570
Carbon Mobile 25% $471,644 

### $1,086,166 $608,238 $398,407 $501,776 $660,585 $538,338 $128,135 $483,593 50% $474,509 

### $1,092,010 $611,910 $400,734 $504,839 $664,493 $541,613 $128,676 $486,542 75% $477,041 

### $1,097,073 $615,152 $402,780 $507,548 $667,931 $544,506 $129,127 $489,144 Carbon EGU & Non
-EGU 25% $366,975 $845,347 $473,914 $309,967 $390,430 $514,053 $418,891 $97,812 $381,639 50% $371,848 $855,805 $480,149 $314,034 $395,617 $520,741 $424,437 $99,081 $386,738 75% $376,445 $865,661 $486,038 $317,858 $400,513 $527,056 $429,673 $100,239 $391,549
NH3 Area 25% $31,279 $71,944 $40,351 $26,429 $33,274 $43,784 $35,694 $8,398 $32,372 50% $32,449 $74,556 $4 1,866 $27,410 $34,520 $45,410 $37,029 $8,708 $33,603 75% $33,587 $77,080 $43,339 $28,362 $35,731 $46,988 $38,327 $9,007 $34,800
NH3 Mobile 25% $60,823 $139,264 $78,471 $51,479 $64,668 $84,937 $69,334 $17,983 $64,953 50% $67,732 $155,010 $87,382 $57,31 5 $72,016 $94,578 $77,212 $19,919 $72,230 75% $74,562 $170,542 $96,187 $63,082 $79,280 $104,101 $84,998 $21,834 $79,420
Nox EGU 25% $6,940 $15,978 $8,941 $5,865 $7,383 $9,718 $7,920 $1,879 $7,114 50% $8,237 $18,954 $10,615 $6,961 $8,762 $11,531 $9,399 $2,239 $8,477 75% $9,527 $21,912 $12,281 $8,051 $10,134 $13,335 $10,871 $2,597 $9,833

## 10

Nox Mobile 25% $10,098 $23,207 $13,026 $8,536 $10,741 $14,128 $11,521 $2,823 $10,609 50% $11,057 $25,383 $14,262 $9,346 $11,761 $15,465 $12,614 $3,099 $11,619 75% $12,003 $27,518 $15,480 $10,144 $12,767 $16,780 $13,692 $3,372 $12,615
Nox NEGU 25% $6,099 $14,031 $7,867 $5,156 $6,488 $8,537 $6,960 $1,686 $6,368 50% $6,940 $15,959 $8,953 $5,866 $7,382 $9,713 $7,919 $1,922 $7,252 75% $7,775 $17,869 $10,030 $6,571 $8,270 $10,879 $8,871 $2,156 $8,129
Sox Area 25% $36,586 $84,444 $47,093 $30,892 $38,930 $51,294 $41,776 $9,746 $36,991 50% $38,009 $87,702 $48,931 $32,091 $40,445 $53,285 $43,401 $10,124 $38,463 75% $39,408 $90,897 $50,737 $33,269 $41,933 $55,240 $44,997 $10,496 $39,909
Sox EGU 25% $66,319 $152,681 $85,573 $55,989 $70,564 $92,898 $75,710 $17,447 $68,447 50% $67,429 $154,986 $87,013 $56,889 $71,752 $94,422 $76,981 $17,663 $69,620 75% $68,476 $157,141 $88,373 $57,733 $72,873 $95,859 $78,181 $17,851 $70,727
Sox NEGU 25% $43,603 $100,555 $56,200 $36,816 $46,395 $61,113 $49,783 $11,508 $44,313 50% $44,623 $102,844 $57,522 $37,668 $47,482 $62,535 $50,949 $11,765 $45,379 75% $45,615 $105,057 $58,810 $38,497 $48,540 $63,915 $52,083 $12,016 $46,418
VOC 25% $879 $2,025 $1,135 $743 $935 $1,231 $1,003 $244 $900 50% $1,081 $2,488 $1,395 $913 $1,150 $1,513 $1,233 $300 $1,111 75% $1,281 $2,948 $1,654 $1,083 $1,363 $1,794 $1,462 $356 $1,321 

### Table 4: **Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Year 20 30**  **( 7** **% Discount Rate)**  Source/Pollutant Combination % Reduction Pope et al. Laden et al. Expert A Expert B Expert C
Carbon Area 25% 

### $339,651 $729,123 $1,037,420 $800,136 $791,019 50% 

### $331,858 $710,316 $1,040,780 $803,282 $794,215 75% 

### $324,649 $692,815 $1,043,382 $805,862 $796,856
Carbon Mobile 25% 

### $245,995 $528,920 $791,700 $608,680 $603,012 50% 

### $243,192 $522,341 $796,194 $612,272 $606,586 75% 

### $239,557 $513,907 $800,122 $615,432 $609,731
Carbon EGU & Non

- EGU 25% 

### $205,525 $443,661 $616,119 $475,159 $469,235 50% 

### $205,731 $443,588 $623,958 $481,347 $475,355 75% 

### $204,803 $441,029 $631,354 $487,189 $481,133
NH3 Area 25% 

### $17,066 $36,709 $52,459 $40,437 $39,972 50% 

### $17,204 $36,938 $54,387 $41,952 $41,458 75% 

### $17,302 $37,078 $56,255 $43,423 $42,899
NH3 Mobile 25% 

### $39,202 $84,370 $101,667 $78,945 $77,582 50% 

### $43,168 $92,841 $113,186 $87,877 $86,387 75% 

### $47,127 $101,287 $124,558 $96,699 $95,086
Nox EGU 25% 

### $3,591 $7,708 $11,647 $8,959 $8,872 50% 

### $4,345 $9,330 $13,818 $10,639 $10,527 75% 

### $5,102 $1 0,959 $15,977 $12,311 $12,175 Nox Mobile 25% 

### $5,908 $12,727 $16,925 $13,108 $12,900 50% 

### $6,450 $13,882 $18,519 $14,349 $14,121

## 11 75% 

### $6,969 $14,979 $20,087 $15,570 $15,323
Nox NEGU 25% 

### $3,501 $7,544 $10,230 $7,897 $7,794 50% 

### $3,985 $8,583 $11,637 $8,986 $8,868 75% 

### $4,466 $9,615 $13,032 $10,067 $9,933
Sox Area 25% 

### $17,860 $38,409 $61,509 $47,091 $46,815 50% 

### $18,579 $39,954 $63,890 $48,930 $48,632 75% 

### $19,167 $41,200 $66,227 $50,735 $50,417
Sox EGU 25% 

### $33,872 $72,839 $111,315 $85,683 $84,796 50% 

### $31,311 $67,020 $113,077 $87,100 $86,189 75% 

### $28,311 $60,278 $114,730 $88,435 $87,501
Sox NEGU 25% 

### $21,434 $46,070 $73,266 $56,191 $55,779 50% 

### $21,170 $45,425 $74,954 $57,510 $57,077 75% 

### $20,949 $44,876 $76,590 $58,794 $58,338
VOC 25% 

### $455 $977 $1,476 $1,136 $1,124 50% 

### $572 $1,231 $1,814 $1,397 $1,381 75% 

### $689 $1,481 $2,149 $1,657 $1,637



### Table 4 Continued: **Estimated PM2.5 B enefit per Ton for the Year 2030**  **( 7** **% Discount Rate)** Source/Pollutant Combination %

Reduction Expert D Expert E Expert F Expert

G Expert H Expert I Expert J Expert K Expert L
Carbon Area 25% 

### $560,535 $1,283,260 $722,514 $474,045 $596,073 $782,991 $639,140 $158,269 $581,130 50% 

### $563,065 $1,286,228 $725,576 $475,948 $598,787 $786,050 $641,987 $158,578 $583,701 75% 

### $565,235 $1,288,239 $728,138 $477,560 $601,110 $788,561 $644,407 $158,854 $585,883
Carbon Mobile 25% 

### $426,756 $980,227 $549,780 $360,795 $453,895 $596,927 $486,825 $117,373 $437,518 50% 

### $429,323 $985,478 $553,074 $362,877 $456,640 $600,433 $489,761 $117,847 $440,161 75% 

### $431,590 $990,024 $555,980 $364,706 $459,065 $603,516 $492,353 $118,240 $442,490 Carbon EGU & Non
-EGU 25% 

### $332,032 $762,880 $428,347 $280,688 $353,157 $464,498 $378,790 $89,610 $345,240 50% 

### $336,434 $772,311 $433,975 $284,363 $357,841 $470,535 $383,798 $90,765 $349,844 75% 

### $340,582 $781,195 $439,287 $287,815 $362,259 $476,230 $388,522 $91,816 $354,185
NH3 Area 25% 

### $28,306 $64,931 $36,476 $23,937 $30,102 $39,569 $32,282 $7,698 $29,291 50% 

### $29,363 $67,287 $37,844 $24,824 $31,228 $41,037 $33,488 $7,980 $30,402 75% 

### $30,391 $69,563 $39,174 $25,685 $32,322 $42,460 $34,659 $8,253 $31,483
NH3 Mobile 25% 

### $55,087 $125,735 $70,981 $46,671 $58,550 $76,806 $62,753 $16,503 $58,807 50% 

### $61,341 $139,948 $79,038 $51,958 $65,199 $85,520 $69,879 $18,278 $65,391 75% 

### $67,523 $153,967 $86,999 $57,183 $71,772 $94,127 $76,923 $20,033 $71,898
Nox EGU 25% 

### $6,281 $14,421 $8,083 $5,313 $6,680 $8,783 $7,164 $1,722 $6,437 50% 

### $7,455 $17,107 $9,597 $6,305 $7,928 $10,421 $8,502 $2,052 $7,671 75% 

### $8,622 $19,777 $11,103 $7,293 $9,169 $12,052 $9,833 $2,381 $8,898 Nox Mobile 25% 

### $9,140 $20,946 $11,777 $7,734 $9,719 $12,770 $10,422 $2,588 $9,600

## 12 50% 

### $10,009 $22,911 $12,895 $8,467 $10,642 $13,978 $11,411 $2,841 $10,514 75% 

### $10,864 $24,838 $13,996 $9,190 $1 1,552 $15,167 $12,385 $3,091 $11,415
Nox NEGU 25% 

### $5,521 $12,664 $7,113 $4,671 $5,870 $7,716 $6,295 $1,546 $5,762 50% 

### $6,282 $14,404 $8,094 $5,314 $6,680 $8,779 $7,163 $1,762 $6,562 75% 

### $7,037 $16,128 $9,068 $5,953 $7,483 $9,833 $8,024 $1,976 $7,356
Sox Area 25% 

### $33,096 $76,199 $42,558 $27,967 $35,207 $46,343 $37,770 $8,922 $33,460 50% 

### $34,383 $79,139 $44,219 $29,052 $36,576 $48,141 $39,238 $9,267 $34,791 75% 

### $35,647 $82,021 $45,851 $30,118 $37,921 $49,906 $40,681 $9,607 $36,099
Sox EGU 25% 

### $59,995 $137,777 $77,336 $50,691 $63,818 $83,933 $68,452 $15,978 $61,912 50% 

### $60,989 $139,848 $78,627 $51,496 $64,883 $85,301 $69,592 $16,167 $62,962 75% 

### $61,925 $141,781 $79,845 $52,249 $65,885 $86,587 $70,666 $16,330 $63,952
Sox NEGU 25% 

### $39,445 $90,739 $50,790 $33,332 $41,959 $55,215 $45,011 $10,539 $40,084 50% 

### $40,365 $92,802 $51,982 $34,101 $42,940 $56,497 $46,063 $10,771 $41,046 75% 

### $41,260 $94,796 $53,144 $34,849 $43,894 $57,742 $47,085 $10,999 $41,983
VOC 25% 

### $796 $1,828 $1,026 $673 $846 $1,113 $908 $224 $815 50% 

### $978 $2,246 $1,261 $827 $1,040 $1,368 $1,115 $275 $1,006 75% 

### $1,159 $2,661 $1,495 $981 $1,233 $1,621 $1,322 $326 $1,196

## 13

Discussion The benefit per ton estimates above vary according to three factors. The first source of variability is attributable to the PM2.5 

## mortality estimate used to calculate total benefits. Consistent with the results of the PM2.5 

## RIA, the PM2.5

## -related benefits derived using the Laden et al. (2006) mortality estimate are roughly double those estimates based on Pope et al. (2002). The PM2.5

## - related benefits calculated using the 12 expert

-derived functions also vary significantly. The second source of variability among the estimates is due to the different potential for a given ton of each of the 12 source/sector combinations to form PM2.5 

## in the atmosphere. For example, carbonaceous particles emitted directly from mobile sources tend to have a great potential to form PM2.5 

## in the atmosphere than do volatile organic compounds. As such, the monetized benefits of abating a ton of mobile source carbonaceous particles is significantly greater than that of reducing a ton of volatile organic compounds. Finally, the benefit per ton estimates calculated for a population year of 2030 are significantly higher than those calculated for a population year of 2015. This is consistent with the population growth estimated in the Woods & Poole projections that BenMAP uses to calculate future

-year population exposure. There are several key

limitations and uncertainties associated with these benefit per ton estimates:

 These estimates are regional averages

. As such, they do not reflect any spatial variability

in the incremental PM2.5 

## benefits per ton ofPM2.5 

## precursor abated. For this reason, there are special uncertainties incurred when using these metrics to estimate the local

-scale benefits of emission reductions.

 The benefit per ton metrics contain each of the uncertainties inherent in a PM2.5 benefits analysis. As discussed in the PM2.5 

## NAAQS RIA (Table 5.5), there are a variety of uncertainties associated with calculating PM benefits; these uncertainties are propagated through to the benefit per ton estimates included in this TSD.

 These estimates omit certain benefits categories. Reductions in PM2.5 

## precursors may provide visibility

benefits, which are not expressed in the benefit per ton metrics. Certain unquantified benefit categories, described fully in the PM2.5 

## NAAQS RIA are also omitted.

## 14

References Abt Associates, Incorporated. Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (Version 2.4). Prepared for Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Air Benefits and Cost group. Research Triangle Park, NC. 2005. Industrial Economics, Incorporated (IEc). August 2006. Expanded Expert Judgment Assessment of the Concentration

-Response Relationship Between PM2.5 Exposure and Mortality. Peer Review Draft. Prepared for: Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. Laden, F., J. Schwartz, F.E. Speizer, and D.W. Dockery

. 2006. Reduction in Fine Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality

. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. 173: 667

-672. Pope, C.A., III, R.T. Burnett, M.J. Thun, E.E. Calle, D. Krewski, K. Ito, and G.D. Thurston. 2002. “Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution.” Journal of the American Medical Association 287:1132

-1141. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2006. Final Regulatory Impact Analysis: PM2.5 

## NAAQS. Prepared by Office of Air and Radiation. Available: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/ria.html 

## [accessed 10 March 2008].