E.O. 12866 Review 2060-AQ-42 Email 011311+2 att.txt

 

 

 

 

 From: Dave Guinnup/RTP/USEPA/US 

 To: Cortney_Higgins@omb.eop.gov, nancy beck <nbeck@omb.eop.gov> 

 Cc: Michael Stewart/RTP/USEPA/US@EPA 

 Date: 01/12/2011 11:30 AM 

 Subject: Fw: Part of E.O. 12866 Review: EPA Staff Response to "Supplementary 

Information for RTR -Primary Lead Smelting"additional documentation for 

model-to-monitor 

comparison [2060-AQ42] 

Attachments: Lead Model to Monitor comparison.docx 

 

 

 

here's the additional info you requested

(See attached file: Lead Model to Monitor comparison.docx)

Dave Guinnup

Leader, Air Toxics Assessment Group

Health and Environmental Impacts Division Office of Air Quality Planning and 

Standards US EPA (C539-02) Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

(919)-541-5368 voice

(919)-541-0840 FAX

Page 1
Primary Lead Smelter Model to Monitor Analysis 

Considering calendar year 2008, we compared maximum AERMOD estimates of ambient lead 

concentrations with those measured at 4 monitors in close proximity to the Herculaneum Primary 

Lead Smelting Facility. More specifically, we compared maximum 3-month rolling average lead 

concentrations (for calendar year 2008) calculated from data reported at the Main Street, Circle 

Street, South Cross, and Church Street monitors to the maximum 3-month rolling average lead 

concentrations at model receptor locations in close proximity to these monitoring sites (see 

Figure 1 for location of monitors and AERMOD receptors). These monitor locations were 

chosen because they represented the closest offsite monitors to the Herculaneum primary lead 

smelter. Thus, lead measurements at these monitoring sites would likely be dominated by 

emissions from this facility- which is important given that AERMOD estimates of ambient lead 

concentrations only considered lead emissions from this facility (i.e., only lead emissions from 

the Herculaneum primary lead smelter were used as inputs into AERMOD). 

 Results of this analysis are presented in Table 1 and indicate that with respect to the Main Street 

and Circle Street monitors, AERMOD underestimates 3-month maximum lead concentrations by 

approximately 4.6- and 3-fold respectively. With respect to the South Cross and Church Street 

monitors, AERMOD overestimates 3-month maximum lead concentrations by approximately 

2.8- and 4.2-fold, respectively. Moreover, results also indicate that the maximum 3-month 

average lead concentration calculated from any of these monitors is approximately equal to the 

maximum 3-month average lead concentration estimated by AERMOD at any of these 

monitoring sites (i.e., both the Main Street monitor and the South Cross AERMOD estimate 

indicate the maximum 3-month average lead concentration to be approximately 2.1 μgs/m3

). 

Taken together, these results indicate that AERMOD estimates of ambient lead concentration 

                                                           

1 Maximum 3‐month monitored concentrations were calculated for the year 2008 based on data submitted to

EPA’s Air Quality System (AQS).     2 Negative sign denotes an underestimation of AERMOD modeled ambient lead concentrations, relative to

monitored concentrations.  AERMOD estimated concentrations were based on 2008 emissions estimates.

Table 1. Comparison of AERMOD modeled to ambient lead concentrations reported by six 

monitors surrounding the Herculaneum Primary Lead Smelting Facility. 

Location Maximum AERMOD 

Modeled 3-Month Lead 

Concentration (μgs/m3

) 

Maximum Monitored 3-

Month Lead 

Concentration 1 (μgs/m3) 

Model to Monitor 

Ratio2

Main Street 0.47 2.14 -4.6 

Circle Street 0.38 1.14 -3.0 

South Cross 2.13 0.75 2.8 

Church Street 1.99 0.47 4.2 
provide a reasonable representation of the measured 3-month maximum lead concentrations 

present in the ambient air near this facility 

Figure1. Monitor Locations, Discreet Receptors and Maximum Risk Receptors for the Doe 

Run Herculaneum Primary Lead Smelter