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The Nation’s Combat Logistics Support Agency

E s t a b l i s h e d 1 9 6 1

DEFENSE LOGISTICS AGENCY

DLA

Demand Forecast 

Communication to 

Industry

November 7, 2022
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CUI

CUI

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Shape a 21st century 

defense industrial base

Investing in our Strength

Sustain and strengthen 

U.S. deterrence

Industry

October 28, 2022

October 12, 2022

National Security 

Strategy (NSS)

October 27, 2022

National Defense 

Strategy (NDS)

Strategic Management 

Plan (SMP)

Industry: Vital to National Strategy 

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Support to 

USEUCOM

Affordability

Forecasting 

Limitations

4

Budget 

Uncertainty

Inflation

Supply Chain Risk

Forecast Environment
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DLA Support to EUCOM

1JAN-26OCT22

*Dollar amounts indicate total 2022 year-to-date EUCOM order amounts as of 26OCT22 

Percentages represent increase in current year EUCOM order amounts compared to previous year.

Data on represents US order amounts—it does not represent FMS/Allied partners

Total Value of 

Year-To-Date 

EUCOM Support

$1.8B

50%

Increase in 

Year-to-Date 

Order amounts

Deployed 

Team 

Members

18

Sleep 

Systems

Clothing 

Items

2.3M

Gallons of Bulk 

Fuel Products

Pickets

Sandbags

BF Lumber

Medicine

AVIATION CONSTRUCTION 

& EQUIPMENT

CLOTHING & 

TEXTILES

ENERGY

LAND MARITIME MEDICAL SUBSISTENCE

$252M $167M $534M $44M

$140M $74M $340M $288M”

(40% )

(42% ) (15% )

(49% )

(110% ) (106% ) (9% ) (131% )

First Aid Kits

Bandages

• MRE Cases

• Unitized Group Ration, 

Heat & Serve Mods

Parts

Engines

Aircraft

Tires

Batteries

Land Systems Pumps & Valves

Pipes

Repair Parts

Repair Parts Electronics

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Business Opportunity

• FY22 Overall contract obligations: ~$45B (increase predominantly due to rising prices)

• FY22 Small business: ~$15B (4th time at $15B in 5 years), 40% of eligible obligations

• FY22 AbilityOne: $522M (Leader in Products)

• Over the last 4 years DLA;

– Exceeded its yearly small business spending goal (Avg. 39.6%)

– Obligated over $9.48B with Small Disadvantaged Businesses

– Averaged $1.66B in obligations to Women Owned Small Businesses

– Competed 75% of all dollars awarded (83.5% in FY22)

$44.18 

$41.61 

$39.10 

$45.20 ~$45

 $36.00

 $37.00

 $38.00

 $39.00

 $40.00

 $41.00

 $42.00

 $43.00

 $44.00

 $45.00

 $46.00

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Est)

DLA Contract Obligations ($Billions)

FY23 

projected 

consistent 

with FY22

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DLA Obligations Projections

FY19-FY23

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 (est)

$16.40 

$13.58 

$10.09 $10.84 $11.45 

$8.29 

$6.67 

$7.66 

$12.42 $12.36 

$17.90 

$19.77 

$19.28 

$19.77 $19.28 

$1.63 

$2.05 

$2.11 

$2.15 $1.90 

Billions

Hardware Energy Troop Support Services

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Demand Projection

Bottom Line Up Front

Supply Chain Management (SCM)

• Review of past sales trends (since FY19) indicate

- Decrease in Hardware supply chains

- Increase in Troop Support supply chains thru FY21, then decrease in FY22 

• Input from the Services at the 2022 Service Readiness Demand 

Planning Summit(s)...

– FY23 demand anticipated to be in line with FY22

SCM and Energy

• FY23 demand projected to be...

5.7% higher than FY22 for Hardware

2.5% lower than FY22 for Troop Support

0.5% lower than FY22 for Energy

Demand Summit Assessment for FY23

• Demand for FY23 expected to be in 

line with FY22, but...

• Services indicate concern with impacts 

of inflation on buying power

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Hardware

Net Sales at Cost Trends

NIINs transferred to 

Aviation (57% of demand) 

and Land (43% of demand)

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Troop Support

Net Sales at Cost Trends

Subsiding 

COVID 

Demand

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FY23 Projections 

(Hardware & Troop Support)

Low / High Range

Orders from DLA to industry estimated to range 

between -11% to -2% compared to FY22

Budgeted

$23.3B

$B

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Projected Future Demand Energy

3,956 

3,658 3,695 

3,468 3,450 

 -

 500

 1,000

 1,500

 2,000

 2,500

 3,000

 3,500

 4,000

 4,500

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Sold Projected

6.5% 

Dip

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Services Acquisition

Source: SVR as of October 12, 2022

$1.73 $1.67 $1.62 

$2.20 

$1.90 

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

Service Contract Spend ($B)

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23

Projected

Modernization Efforts Will Continue

$876M 46%

$722M 38%

$25M 1%

$263M 14%

$8M 1%

$9M 0%

$3M 0%

$1M 0%

Portfolio Spend Forecast FY23 Electronics and

Communications Services

(ECS)

Facilities Related Services

(FRS)

Transportation Services (TS)

Knowledge Based Services

(KBS)

Equipment Related Services

(ERS)

Other

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MSC Demand Forecast 

Communication to Industry

• MSCs will provide opportunity forecast via Industry Association event and/or other method

– Hardware Supplier Conference hosted by DLA Aviation (May 3-4, 2023)

– Aviation – Mini Monthly Webinar Series; AbilityOne Manufacturing Capability briefings; Strategic 

Supplier engagements; Vendor Score Card; Supplier Surveys

– Disposition Services – Web postings and advance notice of forecasts for procurement/public sales 

opportunities; Industry Day/Virtual Industry Day (Nov 2-3,Q1 FY23); Small Business Training and 

Outreach

– Distribution – Business Opportunities Forecast posted Jul 2022, next update will be Jan 2023; Small 

Business Outreach/Capabilities Presentation and Engagement with socioeconomic vendor base; 

Virtual Industry Day (tentative Jun 2023)

– Energy – Web postings; Energy Summit (tentative Mar 2023); Supplier Advocate Engagements with 

Industry; Small Business Outreach and Industry Conferences

– Land & Maritime – Industry Round Table (Summer 2023); Hardware Supplier Conference (Spring 

2024); DoD sponsored Industry Conferences; Small Business Training; Supplier Relationship 

Manager engagements with Strategic Suppliers

– Troop Support – Joint Advanced Planning Brief for Industry (Nov 17-18); Communicate at Industry 

Events; Meet regularly with industry partners; IPRs with TLS/PV Programs and LTC vendors with 

traditional NSN LTCs; Pre-Solicitation and Pre-proposal conferences; web postings 

– Small Business - DLA small business offices help shape acquisition strategies to expand 

opportunities for small businesses, especially those in underserved communities

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Status of the Defense 

Industrial Base

What we’ve heard

• Labor concerns continue to impact the 

Defense Industrial Base

• Raw material shortages

• Inflation is persistent and creating severe 

pressures on the bottom line

• Several DLA supply chains have seen a 

reduction in offerors due to business 

closures, increased cost, and supply 

reductions

• The # of unique suppliers has decreased, 

consistent with Federal/DoD rates

Similar reduction %’s in Small/Large Businesses

On Time Delivery (OTD)

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What Now?

• DLA Strategic Plan

– https://www.dla.mil/Info/strategicplan/

• Learn how to business with DLA

– https://www.dla.mil/SmallBusiness/

• Learn about DLA’s Industry Engagement Program

– https://www.dla.mil/HQ/Acquisition/Business/Enterprise-Industry/

• Opportunities will be posted at

– https://www.dla.mil/Info/strategicplan/IndustryEngagementPlan/DemandForecast

• DLA Supplier Survey information

- https://www.dla.mil/Info/Strategic-Plan/Industry-Engagement-Plan/SupplierSurvey/

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