U.S. Energy Information Administration | 2020 Levelized Costs AEO 2015 1

June 2015

Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New 

Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015

This paper presents average values of levelized costs for generating technologies that are brought online 

in 20201 as represented in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for the Annual Energy Outlook 

2015 (AEO2015) Reference case.2 Both national values and the minimum and maximum values across 

the 22 U.S. regions of the NEMS electricity market module are presented.

Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is often cited as a convenient summary measure of the overall 

competiveness of different generating technologies. It represents the per-kilowatthour cost (in real 

dollars) of building and operating a generating plant over an assumed financial life and duty cycle. Key 

inputs to calculating LCOE include capital costs, fuel costs, fixed and variable operations and 

maintenance (O&M) costs, financing costs, and an assumed utilization rate for each plant type.3 The 

importance of the factors varies among the technologies. For technologies such as solar and wind 

generation that have no fuel costs and relatively small variable O&M costs, LCOE changes in rough

proportion to the estimated capital cost of generation capacity. For technologies with significant fuel 

cost, both fuel cost and overnight cost estimates significantly affect LCOE. The availability of various 

incentives, including state or federal tax credits, can also impact the calculation of LCOE. As with any 

projection, there is uncertainty about all of these factors and their values can vary regionally and across 

time as technologies evolve and fuel prices change. 

It is important to note that, while LCOE is a convenient summary measure of the overall competiveness 

of different generating technologies, actual plant investment decisions are affected by the specific 

technological and regional characteristics of a project, which involve numerous other factors. The

projected utilization rate, which depends on the load shape and the existing resource mix in an area 

where additional capacity is needed, is one such factor. The existing resource mix in a region can 

directly impact the economic viability of a new investment through its effect on the economics 

surrounding the displacement of existing resources. For example, a wind resource that would primarily 

displace existing natural gas generation will usually have a different economic value than one that would 

displace existing coal generation. 

A related factor is the capacity value, which depends on both the existing capacity mix and load 

characteristics in a region. Since load must be balanced on a continuous basis, units whose output can 

be varied to follow demand (dispatchable technologies) generally have more value to a system than less 

 1 2020 is shown for all technologies except for the advanced nuclear plant type. Because of additional licensing requirements 

for new, unplanned nuclear units, the AEO2015 assumes 2022 is the first year a new nuclear plant, not already under 

construction, could come online and the LCOE/LACE in tables 1-4 represent data consistent with the 2022 online date. 2 The full report is available at http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/index.cfm. 3 The specific assumptions for each of these factors are given in the Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook, available at 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | 2020 Levelized Costs AEO 2015 2

flexible units (non-dispatchable technologies), or those whose operation is tied to the availability of an 

intermittent resource. The LCOE values for dispatchable and nondispatchable technologies are listed 

separately in the tables, because caution should be used when comparing them to one another.

Since projected utilization rates, the existing resource mix, and capacity values can all vary dramatically 

across regions where new generation capacity may be needed, the direct comparison of LCOE across 

technologies is often problematic and can be misleading as a method to assess the economic 

competitiveness of various generation alternatives. Conceptually, a better assessment of economic 

competitiveness can be gained through consideration of avoided cost, a measure of what it would cost 

the grid to generate the electricity that is otherwise displaced by a new generation project, as well as its 

levelized cost. Avoided cost, which provides a proxy measure for the annual economic value of a 

candidate project, may be summed over its financial life and converted to a stream of equal annual 

payments. The avoided cost is divided by average annual output of the project to develop the 

“levelized” avoided cost of electricity (LACE) for the project.

4 The LACE value may then be compared 

with the LCOE value for the candidate project to provide an indication of whether or not the project’s 

value exceeds its cost. If multiple technologies are available to meet load, comparisons of each project’s 

LACE to its LCOE may be used to determine which project provides the best net economic value. 

Estimating avoided costs is more complex than estimating levelized costs because it requires 

information about how the system would have operated without the option under evaluation. In this 

discussion, the calculation of avoided costs is based on the marginal value of energy and capacity that 

would result from adding a unit of a given technology and represents the potential revenue available to 

the project owner from the sale of energy and generating capacity. While the economic decisions for 

capacity additions in EIA’s long-term projections use neither LACE nor LCOE concepts, the LACE and net 

value estimates presented in this report are generally more representative of the factors contributing to 

the projections than looking at LCOE alone. However, both the LACE and LCOE estimates are 

simplifications of modeled decisions, and may not fully capture all decision factors or match modeled 

results. 

Policy-related factors, such as environmental regulations and investment or production tax credits for 

specified generation sources, can also impact investment decisions. Finally, although levelized cost 

calculations are generally made using an assumed set of capital and operating costs, the inherent 

uncertainty about future fuel prices and future policies may cause plant owners or investors who 

finance plants to place a value on portfolio diversification. While EIA considers many of these factors in 

its analysis of technology choice in the electricity sector, these concepts are not included in LCOE or 

LACE calculations.

The LCOE values shown for each utility-scale generation technology in Table 1 and Table 2 in this 

discussion are calculated based on a 30-year cost recovery period, using a real after tax weighted 

average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.1%5

. In reality, the cost recovery period and cost of capital can vary 

 4 Further discussion of the levelized avoided cost concept and its use in assessing economic competitiveness can be found in 

this article: http://www.eia.gov/renewable/workshop/gencosts/. 5

The real WACC for plants entering service in 2020 is 6.1%; nuclear plants are assumed to enter service in 2022 and have a real 

WACC of 6.2%. The real WACC corresponds to a nominal after tax rate of 8.1% for both plants entering service in 2020 and 

2022. An overview of the WACC assumptions and methodology can be found in the Electricity Market Module of the National 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | 2020 Levelized Costs AEO 2015 3

by technology and project type. In the AEO2015 reference case, 3 percentage points are added to the 

cost of capital when evaluating investments in greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive technologies like coalfired power and coal-to-liquids (CTL) plants without carbon control and sequestration (CCS). In LCOE

terms, the impact of the cost of capital adder is similar to that of an emissions fee of $15 per metric ton 

of carbon dioxide (CO2) when investing in a new coal plant without CCS, which is representative of the 

costs used by utilities and regulators in their resource planning.

6 The adjustment should not be seen as 

an increase in the actual cost of financing, but rather as representing the implicit hurdle being added to 

GHG-intensive projects to account for the possibility that they may eventually have to purchase 

allowances or invest in other GHG-emission-reducing projects to offset their emissions. As a result, the 

LCOE values for coal-fired plants without CCS are higher than would otherwise be expected. 

The levelized capital component reflects costs calculated using tax depreciation schedules consistent 

with permanent tax law, which vary by technology. Although the capital and operating components do 

not incorporate the production or investment tax credits available to some technologies, a subsidy 

column is included in Table 1 to reflect the estimated value of these tax credits, where available, in 

2020. In the reference case, tax credits are assumed to expire based on current laws and regulations.

Some technologies, notably solar photovoltaic (PV), are used in both utility-scale generating plants and 

distributed end-use residential and commercial applications. As noted above, the LCOE (and also

subsequent LACE) calculations presented in the tables apply only to the utility-scale use of those 

technologies. 

In Table 1 and Table 2, the LCOE for each technology is evaluated based on the capacity factor indicated, 

which generally corresponds to the high end of its likely utilization range. Simple combustion turbines 

(conventional or advanced technology) that are typically used for peak load duty cycles are evaluated at 

a 30% capacity factor. The duty cycle for intermittent renewable resources, wind and solar, is not 

operator controlled, but dependent on the weather or solar cycle (that is, sunrise/sunset) and so will not 

necessarily correspond to operator dispatched duty cycles. As a result, their LCOE values are not directly 

comparable to those for other technologies (even where the average annual capacity factor may be 

similar) and therefore are shown in separate sections within each of the tables. The capacity factors

shown for solar, wind, and hydroelectric resources in Table 1 are simple averages of the capacity factor 

for the marginal site in each region. These capacity factors can vary significantly by region and can 

represent resources that may or may not get built in EIA capacity projections. Projected capacity factors 

for these resources in the AEO 2015 or other EIA analyses will not necessarily correspond to these levels.

As mentioned above, the LCOE values shown in Table 1 are national averages. However, as shown in 

Table 2, there is significant regional variation in LCOE values based on local labor markets and the cost 

and availability of fuel or energy resources such as windy sites. For example, LCOE for incremental wind 

capacity coming online in 2020 ranges from $65.6/MWh in the region with the best available resources 

in 2020 to $81.6/MWh in regions where LCOE values are highest due to lower quality wind resources 

 

Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation. This report can be found at 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/nems/documentation/electricity/pdf/m068%282014%29.pdf. 6 Morgan Stanley, “Leading Wall Street Banks Establish The Carbon Principles” (Press Release, February 4, 2008), 

www.morganstanley.com/about/press/articles/6017.html.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | 2020 Levelized Costs AEO 2015 4

and/or higher capital costs for the best sites that can accommodate additional wind capacity. Costs 

shown for wind may include additional costs associated with transmission upgrades needed to access 

remote resources, as well as other factors that markets may or may not internalize into the market price 

for wind power.

As previously indicated, LACE provides an estimate of the cost of generation and capacity resources 

displaced by a marginal unit of new capacity of a particular type, thus providing an estimate of the value 

of building such new capacity. This is especially important to consider for intermittent resources, such as 

wind or solar, that have substantially different duty cycles than the baseload, intermediate and peaking 

duty cycles of conventional generators. Table 3 provides the range of LACE estimates for different 

capacity types. The LACE estimates in this table have been calculated assuming the same maximum 

capacity factor as in the LCOE. A subset of the full list of technologies in Table 1 is shown because the 

LACE value for similar technologies with the same capacity factor would have the same value (for 

example, conventional and advanced combined cycle plants will have the same avoided cost of 

electricity). Values are not shown for combustion turbines, because turbines are more often built for 

their capacity value to meet a reserve margin rather than to meet generation requirements and avoid 

energy costs.

When the LACE of a particular technology exceeds its LCOE at a given time and place, that technology 

would generally be economically attractive to build. While the build decisions in the real world, and as 

modeled in the AEO, are somewhat more complex than a simple LACE to LCOE comparison, including 

such factors as policy and non-economic drivers, the net economic value (LACE minus LCOE, including 

subsidy, for a given technology, region and year) shown in Table 4 provides a reasonable point of 

comparison of first-order economic competitiveness among a wider variety of technologies than is 

possible using either the LCOE or LACE tables individually. In Table 4, a negative difference indicates that 

the cost of the marginal new unit of capacity exceeds its value to the system, as measured by LACE; a 

positive difference indicates that the marginal new unit brings in value in excess of its cost by displacing 

more expensive generation and capacity options. The range of differences columns represent the

variation in the calculation of the difference for each region. For example, in the region where the 

advanced combined cycle appears most economic in 2020, the LCOE is $74.6/MWh and the LACE is 

$75.8/MWh, resulting in a net difference of $1.2/MWh. This range of differences is not based on the 

difference between the minimum values shown in Table 2 and Table 3, but represents the lower and 

upper bound resulting from the LACE minus LCOE calculations for each of the 22 regions.

The average net differences shown in Table 4 are for plants coming online in 2020, consistent with 

Tables 1-3, as well as for plants that could come online in 2040, to show how the relative 

competitiveness changes over the projection period. Additional tables showing the LCOE cost 

components and regional variation in LCOE and LACE for 2040 can be found in the Appendix. In 2020, 

the average net differences are negative for all technologies except geothermal, reflecting the fact that 

on average, new capacity is not needed in 2020. However, the upper value for the advanced combined 

cycle technology is above zero, indicating competiveness in a particular region. Geothermal cost data is 

site-specific, and the relatively large positive value for that technology results because there may be 

individual sites that are very cost competitive, leading to new builds, but there is a limited amount of 

capacity available at that cost. By 2040, the LCOE values for most technologies are lower, typically 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | 2020 Levelized Costs AEO 2015 5

reflecting declining capital costs over time. All technologies receive cost reductions from learning over 

time, with newer, advanced technologies receiving larger cost reductions, while conventional 

technologies will see smaller learning effects. Capital costs are also adjusted over time based on 

commodity prices, through a factor based on the metals and metal products index, which declines in 

real terms over the projection. However, the LCOE for natural gas-fired technologies rises over time, 

because rising fuel costs more than offset any decline in capital costs. The LACE values for all 

technologies increase by 2040 relative to 2020, reflecting higher energy costs and a greater value for 

new capacity. As a result, the difference between LACE and LCOE for almost all technologies gets closer 

to a net positive value in 2040, and there are several technologies (advanced combined cycle, wind, 

solar PV, and geothermal) that have regions with positive net differences. 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | 2020 Levelized Costs AEO 2015 6

Table 1. Estimated levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for new generation resources, 2020

Plant Type

Capacity 

Factor 

(%)

U.S. Average Levelized Costs (2013 $/MWh) for Plants Entering Service in 20201

Levelized 

Capital 

Cost

Fixed 

O&M

Variable 

O&M 

(including 

fuel)

Transmission 

Investment

Total 

System 

LCOE Subsidy2

Total 

LCOE 

including 

Subsidy

Dispatchable Technologies

Conventional Coal 85 60.4 4.2 29.4 1.2 95.1

Advanced Coal 85 76.9 6.9 30.7 1.2 115.7

Advanced Coal with CCS 85 97.3 9.8 36.1 1.2 144.4

Natural Gas-fired

Conventional Combined Cycle 87 14.4 1.7 57.8 1.2 75.2

Advanced Combined Cycle 87 15.9 2.0 53.6 1.2 72.6

Advanced CC with CCS 87 30.1 4.2 64.7 1.2 100.2

Conventional Combustion 

Turbine

30 40.7 2.8 94.6 3.5 141.5

Advanced Combustion Turbine 30 27.8 2.7 79.6 3.5 113.5

Advanced Nuclear 90 70.1 11.8 12.2 1.1 95.2

Geothermal 92 34.1 12.3 0.0 1.4 47.8 -3.4 44.4

Biomass 83 47.1 14.5 37.6 1.2 100.5

Non-Dispatchable 

Technologies

Wind 36 57.7 12.8 0.0 3.1 73.6

Wind – Offshore 38 168.6 22.5 0.0 5.8 196.9

Solar PV3 25 109.8 11.4 0.0 4.1 125.3 -11.0 114.3

Solar Thermal 20 191.6 42.1 0.0 6.0 239.7 -19.2 220.6

Hydroelectric4 54 70.7 3.9 7.0 2.0 83.5

1

Costs for the advanced nuclear technology reflect an online date of 2022.

2

The subsidy component is based on targeted tax credits such as the production or investment tax credit available for some 

technologies. It only reflects subsidies available in 2020, which include a permanent 10% investment tax credit for geothermal 

and solar technologies. EIA models tax credit expiration as follows: new solar thermal and PV plants are eligible to receive a 

30% investment tax credit on capital expenditures if placed in service before the end of 2016, and 10% thereafter. New wind, 

geothermal, biomass, hydroelectric, and landfill gas plants are eligible to receive either: (1) a $23.0/MWh ($11.0/MWh for 

technologies other than wind, geothermal and closed-loop biomass) inflation-adjusted production tax credit over the plant’s 

first ten years of service or (2) a 30% investment tax credit, if they are under construction before the end of 2013. Up to 6 GW 

of new nuclear plants are eligible to receive an $18/MWh production tax credit if in service by 2020; nuclear plants shown in

this table have an in-service date of 2022. 3

Costs are expressed in terms of net AC power available to the grid for the installed capacity.

4

As modeled, hydroelectric is assumed to have seasonal storage so that it can be dispatched within a season, but overall 

operation is limited by resources available by site and season.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 2015, DOE/EIA-0383(2015).
U.S. Energy Information Administration | 2020 Levelized Costs AEO 2015 7

Table 2. Regional variation in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for new generation resources, 20201

Plant Type

Range for Total System LCOE

(2013 $/MWh)

Range for Total LCOE with Subsidies2

(2013 $/MWh)

Minimum Average Maximum Minimum Average Maximum

Dispatchable Technologies

Conventional Coal 87.1 95.1 119.0

Advanced Coal 106.1 115.7 136.1

Advanced Coal with CCS 132.9 144.4 160.4

Natural Gas-fired

Conventional Combined Cycle 70.4 75.2 85.5

Advanced Combined Cycle 68.6 72.6 81.7

Advanced CC with CCS 93.3 100.2 110.8

Conventional Combustion 

Turbine

107.3 141.5 156.4

Advanced Combustion Turbine 94.6 113.5 126.8

Advanced Nuclear 91.8 95.2 101.0

Geothermal 43.8 47.8 52.1 41.0 44.4 48.0

Biomass 90.0 100.5 117.4

Non-Dispatchable Technologies

Wind 65.6 73.6 81.6

Wind – Offshore 169.5 196.9 269.8

Solar PV3 97.8 125.3 193.3 89.3 114.3 175.8

Solar Thermal 174.4 239.7 382.5 160.4 220.6 351.7

Hydroelectric4 69.3 83.5 107.2 1

Costs for the advanced nuclear technology reflect an online date of 2022. 2

Levelized cost with subsidies reflects subsidies available in 2020, which include a permanent 10% investment tax credit for 

geothermal and solar technologies.

3

Costs are expressed in terms of net AC power available to the grid for the installed capacity. 4

As modeled, hydroelectric is assumed to have seasonal storage so that it can be dispatched within a season, but overall 

operation is limited by resources available by site and season.

Note: The levelized costs for non-dispatchable technologies are calculated based on the capacity factor for the marginal site 

modeled in each region, which can vary significantly by region. The capacity factor ranges for these technologies are as follows: 

Wind – 31% to 40%, Wind Offshore – 33% to 42%, Solar PV- 22% to 32%, Solar Thermal – 11% to 26%, and Hydroelectric – 35% 

to 65%. The levelized costs are also affected by regional variations in construction labor rates and capital costs as well as

resource availability.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 2015, DOE/EIA-0383(2015).
U.S. Energy Information Administration | 2020 Levelized Costs AEO 2015 8

Table 3: Regional variation in levelized avoided costs of electricity (LACE) for new generation 

resources, 20201

Plant Type

Range for LACE (2013$/MWh)

Minimum Average Maximum

Dispatchable Technologies

Coal without CCS 65.9 70.9 80.8

IGCC with CCS2 65.9 71.0 80.8

Natural Gas-fired Combined Cycle 65.8 71.4 80.7

Advanced Nuclear 68.4 72.1 82.0

Geothermal 70.7 70.9 71.0

Biomass 66.0 71.7 80.9

Non-Dispatchable Technologies

Wind 60.6 64.6 69.0

Wind – Offshore 64.6 71.5 78.1

Solar PV 61.6 80.4 92.3

Solar Thermal 59.4 83.0 89.4

Hydroelectric 64.8 69.5 80.0

1

Costs for the advanced nuclear technology reflect an online date of 2022. 2

Coal without CCS cannot be built in California, therefore the average LACE for coal 

technologies without CCS is computed over fewer regions than the LACE for IGCC with CCS. 

Otherwise, the LACE for any given region is the same across coal technologies, with or without CCS.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | 2020 Levelized Costs AEO 2015 9

Table 4: Difference between levelized avoided costs of electricity (LACE) and levelized costs of 

electricity (LCOE), 20201 and 2040

Plant Type

Comparison of LCOE and LACE (2013 $/MWh)

Average 

LCOE

Average 

LACE

Average 

Difference

Range of Differences

Minimum of 

Range

Maximum of 

Range

2020

Dispatchable Technologies

Conventional Coal 95.1 70.9 -24.1 -43.0 -15.5

Advanced Coal 115.7 70.9 -44.7 -60.0 -34.6

Advanced Coal with CCS 144.4 71.0 -73.4 -88.9 -61.4

Natural Gas-fired

Conventional Combined Cycle 75.2 71.4 -3.8 -10.8 -1.8

Advanced Combined Cycle 72.6 71.4 -1.2 -7.6 1.2

Advanced CC with CCS 100.2 71.4 -28.8 -35.9 -22.5

Advanced Nuclear 95.2 72.1 -23.2 -31.4 -10.6

Geothermal 44.4 70.9 26.5 22.7 30.0

Biomass 100.5 71.7 -28.8 -44.4 -16.9

Non-Dispatchable Technologies

Wind 73.6 64.6 -9.0 -19.6 0.1

Wind – Offshore 196.9 71.5 -125.5 -191.6 -98.3

Solar PV 114.3 80.4 -33.9 -83.5 -10.5

Solar Thermal 220.6 83.0 -137.5 -266.0 -74.3

Hydroelectric 83.5 69.5 -14.0 -33.9 -1.4

2040

Dispatchable Technologies

Conventional Coal 91.7 78.9 -12.8 -34.6 -3.5

Advanced Coal 105.5 78.9 -26.6 -43.3 -17.1

Advanced Coal with CCS 127.6 79.2 -48.4 -58.9 -38.7

Natural Gas-fired

Conventional Combined Cycle 82.6 79.3 -3.3 -9.9 -1.2

Advanced Combined Cycle 79.3 79.3 -0.1 -5.6 2.1

Advanced CC with CCS 106.3 79.3 -27.0 -32.8 -21.9

Advanced Nuclear 88.9 78.7 -10.3 -19.3 -0.2

Geothermal 56.9 80.6 23.7 -2.8 50.2

Biomass 93.5 79.6 -13.9 -34.0 -1.6

Non-Dispatchable Technologies

Wind 75.1 71.7 -3.4 -47.9 8.6

Wind – Offshore 175.6 79.3 -96.3 -155.6 -69.9

Solar PV 107.1 91.0 -16.1 -70.1 3.0

Solar Thermal 197.1 95.6 -101.5 -210.9 -49.1

Hydroelectric 89.9 77.7 -12.2 -30.4 -0.5

1

Costs for the advanced nuclear technology reflect an online date of 2022.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | 2020 Levelized Costs AEO 2015 10

Appendix: Tables for 2040

Table A5. Estimated levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for new generation resources, 2040

Plant Type

Capacity 

Factor 

(%)

U.S. Average Levelized Costs (2013 $/MWh) for Plants Entering Service in 20201

Levelized 

Capital 

Cost

Fixed 

O&M

Variable 

O&M 

(including 

fuel)

Transmission 

Investment

Total 

System 

LCOE Subsidy2

Total 

LCOE 

including 

Subsidy

Dispatchable Technologies

Conventional Coal 85 56.8 4.2 29.5 1.1 91.7

Advanced Coal 85 69.1 6.9 28.4 1.1 105.5

Advanced Coal with CCS 85 84.9 9.8 31.8 1.2 127.6

Natural Gas-fired

Conventional Combined Cycle 87 13.7 1.7 66.0 1.2 82.6

Advanced Combined Cycle 87 14.3 2.0 61.9 1.2 79.3

Advanced CC with CCS 87 25.8 4.2 75.2 1.2 106.3

Conventional Combustion 

Turbine

30 38.4 2.8 110.3 3.4 154.9

Advanced Combustion Turbine 30 24.1 2.7 88.4 3.4 118.6

Advanced Nuclear 90 62.5 11.8 13.5 1.1 88.9

Geothermal 94 38.2 21.2 0.0 1.4 60.8 -3.8 56.9

Biomass 83 43.0 14.5 34.8 1.2 93.5

Non-Dispatchable 

Technologies

Wind 35 58.9 13.0 0.0 3.1 75.1

Wind – Offshore 38 147.4 22.5 0.0 5.7 175.6

Solar PV3 25 101.8 11.4 0.0 4.1 117.3 -10.2 107.1

Solar Thermal 20 165.6 42.1 0.0 5.9 213.6 -16.6 197.1

Hydroelectric4 52 76.1 4.4 7.3 2.0 89.9

1

The subsidy component is based on targeted tax credits such as the production or investment tax credit available for some 

technologies. It only reflects subsidies available in 2020, which include a permanent 10% investment tax credit for geothermal 

and solar technologies. EIA models tax credit expiration as follows: new solar thermal and PV plants are eligible to receive a 

30% investment tax credit on capital expenditures if placed in service before the end of 2016, and 10% thereafter. New wind, 

geothermal, biomass, hydroelectric, and landfill gas plants are eligible to receive either: (1) a $23.0/MWh ($11.0/MWh for 

technologies other than wind, geothermal and closed-loop biomass) inflation-adjusted production tax credit over the plant’s 

first ten years of service or (2) a 30% investment tax credit, if they are under construction before the end of 2013. Up to 6 GW 

of new nuclear plants are eligible to receive an $18/MWh production tax credit if in service by 2020; nuclear plants shown in

this table have an in-service date of 2022. 2

Costs are expressed in terms of net AC power available to the grid for the installed capacity. 3

As modeled, hydroelectric is assumed to have seasonal storage so that it can be dispatched within a season, but overall 

operation is limited by resources available by site and season.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 2015, DOE/EIA-0383(2015).
U.S. Energy Information Administration | 2020 Levelized Costs AEO 2015 11

Table A6. Regional variation in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for new generation resources, 2040

Plant Type

Range for Total System LCOE

(2013 $/MWh)

Range for Total LCOE with Subsidies1

(2013 $/MWh)

Minimum Average Maximum Minimum Average Maximum

Dispatchable Technologies

Conventional Coal 83.2 91.7 114.8

Advanced Coal 96.4 105.5 123.6

Advanced Coal with CCS 117.1 127.6 141.6

Natural Gas-fired

Conventional Combined Cycle 76.8 82.6 93.2

Advanced Combined Cycle 74.0 79.3 88.4

Advanced CC with CCS 97.5 106.3 117.5

Conventional Combustion Turbine 143.0 154.9 168.5

Advanced Combustion Turbine 111.1 118.6 129.8

Advanced Nuclear 85.9 88.9 94.1

Geothermal 36.6 60.8 85.0 34.4 56.9 79.4

Biomass 82.9 93.5 116.2

Non-Dispatchable Technologies

Wind 61.1 75.1 122.8

Wind – Offshore 151.1 175.6 239.5

Solar PV2 91.5 117.3 180.5 83.7 107.1 164.2

Solar Thermal 155.4 213.6 340.6 143.3 197.1 314.0

Hydroelectric3 78.0 89.9 107.7

1

Levelized cost with subsidies reflects subsidies available in 2040, which includes a permanent 10% investment tax credit for 

geothermal and solar technologies, based on the Energy Policy Act of 1992. 2 Costs are expressed in terms of net AC power available to the grid for the installed capacity. 3

As modeled, hydroelectric is assumed to have seasonal storage so that it can be dispatched within a season, but overall 

operation is limited by resources available by site and season.

Note: The levelized costs for non-dispatchable technologies are calculated based on the capacity factor for the marginal site 

modeled in each region, which can vary significantly by region. The capacity factor ranges for these technologies are as follows: 

Wind – 32% to 41%, Wind Offshore – 33% to 42%, Solar PV- 22% to 32%, Solar Thermal – 11% to 26%, and Hydroelectric – 35% 

to 65%. The levelized costs are also affected by regional variations in construction labor rates and capital costs as well as 

resource availability.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 2015, DOE/EIA-0383(2015).
U.S. Energy Information Administration | 2020 Levelized Costs AEO 2015 12

Table A7: Regional variation in levelized avoided costs of electricity (LACE) for new generation 

resources, 2040

Plant Type

Range for Levelized Avoided Costs 

(2013$/MWh)

Minimum Average Maximum

Dispatchable Technologies

Coal without CCS 72.8 78.9 86.4

IGCC with CCS1 72.8 79.2 86.4

Natural Gas-fired Combined Cycle 72.6 79.3 86.3

Advanced Nuclear 72.4 78.7 86.4

Geothermal 76.7 80.6 84.6

Biomass 72.9 79.6 86.4

Non-Dispatchable Technologies

Wind 66.5 71.7 77.2

Wind – Offshore 71.1 79.3 85.2

Solar PV 70.4 91.0 99.4

Solar Thermal 66.3 95.6 114.7

Hydroelectric 71.5 77.7 85.5

1

Coal without CCS cannot be built in California, therefore the average LACE for coal 

technologies without CCS is computed over fewer regions than the LACE for IGCC with CCS. 

Otherwise, the LACE for any given region is the same across coal technologies, with or without CCS.