La' rence rkeley aboratory IFyclotron Roa Berkeley, California 94720

TO:

Phone:

Fax:

Jan 5, 1995

James 13. McMahon a (510) 486-6049 ® PAX: (510) 486T6996 0 Intemet:jememahon@lbl.gov

Dr. Barry Berlin, DOE / EE-43

202-586-9457

202-586-4617

FROM: Or, James E. McMahon, LBL

CC: Carl Adams, DOE

Ed Pollock, DOE

Attached are summary tables of preliminary REM results for central air conditioner and heat

pump trial standard levels, revised to account for an error in the base case effici cy forecast.

I I.

Trial standard level Base 1 2 3 4 5 6

Effective in 1998 value

CUMULATIVE ENERGY

SAVINGS

(Primary Quads, 1998-2030)

CAC&HP Electricity 44.7 8.2 9.5 10.4 11.5 .1 19,4

(Percent Change) -18% -21% -23% -26% 9% -43%

> Total Residential Electricity 394 9.6 11.2 12.5 13.5 .7

1

21.2

> Total Residential Energy 608 9.4 11,0' 11.6 12.3 .7 18.8

NPV (Billion 1990 $ @ 7%) 714 8.1 6.9 0.6 -5.6

:

9.8 -56.0

CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS:

(Millions, 1998-2030)

> CAC 116.3 115.1 114.8 115.6 115.2 1 1,0 103.7

> HP 24.4 25.6 25.4 22.8 21.5 2 .4 18.0

Percent Change

> CAC -1.2 -1.5 -0.7 -1.1 -5.3 -12.6

> HP +1.2 +1.0 -1.6 -2.9 -2.0 -6.4

I

X06 991'ON f9:9 96/S0/Z0

EE-RM-93-801 COMMENT 0FF

TO: 

Phone: 

Fax: 

FROM: 

cc: 

La renee 

James E. McMahon • (510) 486w6049 

FAX.2... ages 

Dr. Barry Berlin, DOE I EE-43 1 

202:-586-9457 

202-586-4617 

Dr, James E. McMahon, LB~ , 

Carl Adams, DOE , 

rkeley taboratory 

Berkeley, California 94720 

Internet: jemcmahon@lbI.gov 

, 

Jan 5,1995 

Ed Pollock, DOE I. 

Attached are sun:pnary tables of preliminary REM results or central air condititer and heat 

pump trial standard levels, revised to account for an error 10 the base case effici cy forecast. I . , t 

I $ 

I 

Trial standard level Base 1 2 3 4 6 

Effective in 1998 value ~ 

I 

CUMULATIVE ENERGY i 

SAVINGS 

t (primary Quads, 1998-2030) 

> CAC&HP Electricity 44.7 8.2 9.5 10.4 11.5 3.1 19.4 

(Percent Change) -18% -21% -23% -26% ~9% -43% 

> Total Residential Electricity 394 9.6 11.2 12.5 13.5 ~.7 21'.2 

> Total Residential Energy 608 9.4 11.0; 11.6 12.3 ~.7 18.8./ V ,. 

NPV (Billion 1990 $ @ 7%) 714 8.1 6.9 0.6 -5.6 ... 9.SK: -56.0 

CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS: ~ (Millions, 1998-2030) 

>CAC 116.3 115.1 114.8 115.6 115.2 1 1.0 103.7 

>HP 24.4 25.6 25.4 22.8 21.5 22.4 18.0 

Percent Change (%): 

>CAC -1.2 -1.5 -0.7 -1.1 -5.3 -12.6 

>HP +1.2 +1.0 -1.6 -2.9 ~2.0 - 6.4 

I 

1 

10~ 991 'ON 
OBERVATIONS:

Cumulative energy savings range from 8.2 Q (18%) to 19.4 Q (43%).

Total residential electricity savings (9.6 Q for trial stadanrd level 1) are greater than

electricity savings for CAC and HP alone (8.2 Q), because of substitution of more efficient heat

pumps for electric resistance heat. Total residential energy savings (9.4 Q), which include fuels as

well as electricity, are very slightly lower than total residential electricity savings, due to some

substitution of fossil heat for more expensive heat pumps.

Highest NPV ($8. 1 B) is at trial standard 1. Standard levels 1-3 achieve net savings;

standard levels 4-6 incur net costs.

Cumulative shipment impacts are less than 3% for trial standard levels I through 4.

FUTURE CHANGES:

LBL proposes to convert all economic values to 1994 dollars, once the CPI for all of 1994

is made public about January 11.

Please phone with questions or comments.

Y

Z06 991'0N 1 €S:9ti S6/90/ti0

EE-RM-93-801 COMMENT 0FF

OBERVATIONS: I 

It Cumulative energy savings range from 8.2 Q (18%) to 19.4 Q (43%). 

Total residential electricity savings (9.6 Q for trial stadanrd level 1) are greater than 

electricity savings for CAC and HP alone (8.2 Q), because of substitution of more efficient heat 

pumps for electric resistance heat. Total residential energy savings (9.4 Q). which include fuels as 

well as electricity, are very slightly lower than total residential electricity savings, due to some 

substitution of fossil heat for mOle expensive heat pumps. 

It Highest NPV ($8.1 B) is at trial standard 1. Standard levels 1-3 achieve net savings; 

standard levels 4-6 incur net costs. 

It Cumulative shipment impacts are less than 3% for trial standard levels 1 through 4. I . 

FUTURE CHANGES: 

• LBL proposes to convert all economic values to 1994 dollars, once the CPI for all of 1994 

is made public about January 11. 

Please phone with questions or comments. 

2 

991: 'ON 

, 

I 

,