p. 1



# OAR Box 1828 Prepped byOllie Stewart



## Document

Number: 

# 112 ) ll-K-(B)-10 1 Docket Number: 

# A-83-2 7

Printed 11/12/200811:12:52 AM Sheet 112 of 325

# B P. 2 

## •S^S^ ^ ENERG

YAN D ENVIRONMENTA L ANALYSIS , INC .

# A-83-2 7

II-K-(B)-10 1

Apri l 5 , 198 3

Mr . Rober t Shor t Economi c Analysi s Branc h U.S . Environmenta l Protectio n Agenc y Mai l Drop-1 2 Researc hTriangl e Park , NC 2771 1 Subject : EP AContrac t No . 68-02-3564 , Wor k Assignmen t # 9 Dea r Robert : Enclose d ar e th e propose d industria l fossi l fue l pric e projection s fo r th e industria l boile r NSP S SO

- impac t analysis . Th e natura l ga s an d fue l oi l pric e projection s hav e bee n derive d fromunpublishe d background dat a fo r a recen t DO E analysi s o f natura l ga s wellhea d pric e deregu

latio n proposals . Th e coa l pric e forecast s ar e th e curren t (industria l boile r NSP S PM/NO impac t analysis ) projection s i n IFCAM . Sincerely , 

# r

Ti mHoga n TH:m k Enclosur e
cc : A l Weh e

Economics / Engineerin gP. 3



### PROPOSE DINDUSTRIALFOSSI LFUE LPRIC E PROJECTION S FORTH E INDUSTRIAL BOILE RNSP S S0 2 

### IMPAC T ANALYSI S

Prepare dfor : U.S . ENVIRONMENTALPROTECTION AGENC Y Offic e o f Ai r Qualit y

Plannin gan

dStandard s Researc hTriangl e Park , Nort hCarolin a 2771 1

Prepare dby : ENERGYANDENVIRONMENTALANALYSIS , INC , 111 1 Nort h19t hStree t Arlington , Virgini a 2220 9 Apri l 4 , 198 3P. 4



### TABL E 1 . WORL DOI LPRIC E FORECAST 3



### (198 2 $/bbl )

Averag e Refiner' s Acquisitio nCos t o f Yea r ImportedCrud e Oi l 198 5 31.4 8 199 0 32.7 5

3 

### Increase s a t 1. 0 percen t annuall y inrea l terms . U.S . Departmen t o f Energy . Analysi s o f Natura l Ga s Consume r Regulator y Reform Legislation , February 28 , 1983 . p . 14 . Derive dfro m the fisca l yea r 198 4 budget .P. 5



### TABL E 2 . DISTILLAT E FUE L OI L PRICE-FORECAS T

(198 2 $/MMBtu )

Deman d Region 1 . Ne w England 2 . Ne w York/New

Jersey 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 5 . Midwes t 6 . Southwes t 7 . Centra l 8 . Nort hCentra l 9 . Wes t 10 . Northwes t 198 5 6.9 4 6.9 3 6.9 3 6.9 0 6.7 9 6.6 9 6.7 0 6.6 3 6.6 9 6.6 9 199 0

7.2 5 7.2 4 7.2 4 7.2 1 7.1 0 6.9 9 7.0 1 6.9 4 6.9 9 6.9 9 199 5

7.5 7 7.5 7 7.5 7 7.5 3 7.4 2 7.3 1 7.3 3 7.2 6 7.3 1 7.3 1 1999 3



### 7.8 5 7.8 4 7.8 4 7.8 0 7.6 9 7.5 8 7.6 0 7.5 3 7.5 8 7.5 8

a 

### Remain s constan t inrea l term s afte r 1999 ,P. 6



### TABL E 3 . RESIDUALFUELOI L PRIC E FORECAST 3



### (198 2 $/MMBtu )

Demand Region 1 . New England 2 . New York/New

Jersey 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 5 . Midwes t 6 . Southwes t 7 . Centra l 8 . Nort hCentra l 9 . Wes t 10 . Northwes t 198 5 5.3 7 5.3 7 5.3 7 5.3 7 5.4 6 5.0 7 5.3 9 5.3 2 5.3 7 5.3 7 199 0

6.2 1 6.2 1 6.2 1 6.2 9 6.2 1 6.2 2 6.2 4 6.1 6 6.2 1 6.2 1 199 5

7.1 9 7.1 9 7.1 9 7.1 9 7.2 8 7.1 9 7.2 1 7.1 4 7.1 9 7.1 9 1999 b



### 7.6 1 7.6 1 7.6 1 7.6 1 7.6 9 7.6 1 7.6 2 7.5 5 7.6 1 7.6 1 

### Lo w sulfur , 0. 3 percen t sulfur . 0. 8 percen t sulfu r = 0. 3 percen t sulfu r - $0.33/MMBtu . 1. 6 percen t sulfu r = 0. 3 percen t sulfu r - $0.68/MMBtu . 3. 0 percen t sulfu r = 0. 3 percen t sulfu r - $1.13/MMBtu . Remain s constan t inrea l terms afte r 1999 .

### TABL E 4 . NATURA L GA S PRIC E FORECAS T (198 2 $/MMBtu ) P. 7



### Demand Region 1 . Ne w England 2 . New York/New

Jerse y 3 . Middl e Atlanti c 4 . Sout hAtlanti c 5 . Midwes t 6 . Southwes t 7 . Centra l 8 . Nort hCentra l 9 . Wes t 10 . Northwes t 198 5 5.1 1 5.1 1 5.1 1 5.1 1 5.2 0 4.8 2 5.1 3 5.0 6 5.1 1 5.1 1 199 0

5.9 4 5.9 4 5.9 4 5.9 4 6.0 3 5.9 4 5.9 6 5.8 9 5.9 4 5.9 4 1995 3



### 6.5 9 6.5 9 6.5 9 6.5 9 6.6 7 6.5 9 6.6 0 6.5 4 6.5 9 6.5 9 Increase s afte r 199 5 a t 1. 0 percen t annually .P. 8P. 9

TABL E

Suppl yRegio n Northern Appalachi a N .

Centra l Appalachi a

Souther n Appalachi a Midwes t

Centra l Wes t

Wester n Norther n Grea t Plain s Rockie s

Southwes t 5 . F.O.B . MINE COA L (198 2 $/MMBtu )

lb . S0 2 /MMBt u 6.00 . 3.41 ? 2.30 ° 3.77 . 2.29 ° 2.75 . 1.72 ° 1.71 . 1.35 ° 5.04 , 3.55 ° 4.05 . 2.94 ° 2.77 . 1.77 ° 1.73 , 1.30 ° 1.25 . 1.15 °t—'t—•orocntocr 2.2 7 8.90 . 5.34 ° 4.75 . 2.97 ° 2.7 5 3.7 8 13.04 . 7.99 ° 5.9 9 2.5 0 1.6 7 0.8 7 1.8 5 1.27 , 1.17 ° 1.5 1 PRICES 0

198 5 1.3 5 1.5 4 1.6 8 1.5 4 1.8 2 1.8 1 1.9 6 2.1 7 2.5 6 1.5 4 1.7 2 1.5 6 1.8 3 1.7 2 2.0 2 1.9 3 2.2 9 1.9 6 2.2 5 1.9 7 2.0 9 1.6 8 1.1 8 1.4 6 1.5 0 1.7 4 1.8 3 1.6 0 1.4 0 1.9 3 1.4 2 0.6 5 0.7 1 0.7 6 0.9 7 0.9 7 1.1 4 0.9 6 *

199 0



## 1.6 0 1.8 1 1.9 7 1.7 1 2.0 0 2.0 0 2.1 5 2.3 5 2.7 5 2.0 9 2.3 1 2.0 9 2.4 2 2.1 4 2.4 7 2.2 0 2.5 9 2.2 1 2.5 2 2.2 1 2.3 2 2.4 7 1.4 2 1.7 2 1.7 8 2.0 3 2.1 5 1.9 3 1.5 6 2.1 1 1.8 3 0.6 5 0.7 1 0.7 6 1.2 1 1.2 1 1.4 0 1.0 8 1995 c



## 1.7 9 2.0 2 2.1 8 1.9 0 • 2.2 2 2.2 5 2.4 2 2.6 7 3.1 1 2.1 5 2.3 8 2.1 7 2.5 0 2.5 0 2.8 6 2.5 0 2.9 3 2.5 0 2.8 4 2.5 0 2.6 3 3.2 0 1.5 6 1.8 6 1.9 5 2.2 1 2.3 4 2.0 4 1.7 1 2.3 1 1.9 2 0.7 1 0.7 4 0.7 6 1.3 3 1.3 3 1.5 4 1.3 3 

### Base do n forecast s fro mEIA' s Midter mEnerg yForecastin g Syste mand th e Nationa l Coa l Model . Run-of-min e coa l pric e plu s physica l coa l cleanin g costs . 'Increase s afte r 199 5 a t th e averag e 1985-199 5 annua l rate .Demand

Regio n (City ) 1 . N E (Boston ) 2 . NY/N

J (NewYork ) 3 . M A(Bait.-Ph i 4 . SA(Atlanta ) 5 . M W(Chicago ) 6 . S W(Houston ) la. )

7 . C (Kansa s City ) 8 . NC (Denver ) 9 . W(San Francisco ) 10 . N W(Seattle )

a U.S . Departmen t rat e estimates . Annua l Repor t t o TABL E 6 . 198 5

Norther n Appalachi a 33.6 4 24.4 2 16.9 0 32.6 7 20.5 3 62.2 3 36.7 2 59.5 6 112.8 4 97.4 0

o f Energy , Energy Increas e a t 3. 4 | Congres s 1980) . INDUSTRIAL COA L TRANSPORTATIONCOSTS ' (198 2 $/ton )

Coa l Centra l Souther n Appalachi a Appalachi a 33.4 2 24.2 0 16.6 9 16.3 2 22.6 4 47.0 7 34.6 7 57.5 0 110.7 8 99.5 1 Informatio n jercen t ann

u 48.9 7

41.1 4 33.6 4 9.3 5 30.7 6 29.1 5 30.5 4 53.3 8 104.9 0 107.6 3 Suppl yRegio n

Midwes t 49.4 6 40.2 5 32.7 3 29.4 3 13.7 5 44.3 0 19.2 7 42.1 0

' 95.4 0 90.6 1 Administration , Midterm all yi n rea l term s un/itl Centra l Wes t 63.4 5 54.2 5 46.7 3 35.6 8 19.9 2 31.7 8 3.7 3 26.5 6 79.8 4 83.6 2 i

WN .

Grea t Plain s 91.1 0 81.8 8 76.0 5 69.9 0 46.0 5 54.5 7 37.9 5 15.1 1 68.3 9 51.5 4 EnergyForecastin g System . 199 0 an d thereafte r remai n Rockie s 95.8 1 86.6 0 79.0 8 68.0 3 52.2 6 52.6 9 36.0 7 13.2 3 46.9 5 56.4 6 Single

constan t Southwes i

104.0 0 94.8 0 87.2 8 63.0 1 65.2 3 42.8 5 49.0 4 26.2 0 62.7 4 86.4 6

ca r rai l (EIA' s

### COA LSUPPL YREGION S

x >

. - J t f J" V /

' If

\*

' \' 

# t

1 Noillie m AppaLicJii a 2 Centra l Appalachi a 3 Souther n Appalachi a \ Midwes l 5 Centra l West 6 Gul f REGION S 7 Easter n Norther n GreatPlains * 8 Wester n Norther n GreatPlain s 9 Rockie s 1 0 Southwest 1 1 Northwest * 1 2 Alaska (No tshown) *

* Heitivfc s liu m thes e region s ar e no tinclude d i n IFCAM .