# La' rence rkeley aboratory IF yclotron Roa Berkeley, California 94720

TO: Phone: Fax: Jan 5, 1995

James 13. McMahon a (510) 486-6049 ® PAX: (510) 486T6996 0 Intemet:jememahon@lbl.gov

Dr. Barry Berlin, DOE / EE-43 202-586-9457 202-586-4617 FROM: Or, James E. McMahon, LBL CC: Carl Adams, DOE

Ed Pollock, DOE Attached are summary tables of preliminary REM results for central air conditioner and heat pump trial standard levels, revised to account for an error in the base case effici cy forecast. I I. Trial standard level Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 Effective in 1998 value CUMULATIVE ENERGY SAVINGS (Primary Quads, 1998-2030) CAC&HP Electricity 44.7 8.2 9.5 10.4 11.5 .1 19,4 (Percent Change) -18% -21% -23% -26% 9% -43% > Total Residential Electricity 394 9.6 11.2 12.5 13.5 .7 1 21.2 > Total Residential Energy 608 9.4 11,0' 11.6 12.3 .7 18.8 NPV (Billion 1990 $ @ 7%) 714 8.1 6.9 0.6 -5.6 : 9.8 -56.0 CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS: (Millions, 1998-2030) > CAC 116.3 115.1 114.8 115.6 115.2 1 1,0 103.7 > HP 24.4 25.6 25.4 22.8 21.5 2 .4 18.0 Percent Change > CAC -1.2 -1.5 -0.7 -1.1 -5.3 -12.6 > HP +1.2 

### +1.0 -1.6 -2.9 -2.0 -6.4

I

X06 991'ON f9:9 96/S0/Z0 TO: Phone: 

### Fax: FROM: 

### cc: 

# La renee
James E. McMahon • (510) 486w6049 

## FAX.2... ages Dr. Barry Berlin, DOE IEE-43 

# 1 202:-586-9457 202-586-4617 Dr,James E. McMahon,

# LB~ , Carl Adams, DOE 

# , rkeleytaboratory Berkeley, California 94720 Internet:jemcmahon@lbI.gov 

# , Jan 5,1995

Ed Pollock, DOE 

# I. Attached are sun:pnary tables ofpreliminary REM results orcentral air

### condititer and 

### heat pump trial standard levels, revised to account for an error 10the base 

### case effici cy

### forecast. I

. 

### , t 

# I $ I Trial standard level Base 1 2 3 4 6 Effective in 1998 value**~** I CUMULATIVE ENERGY i SAVINGS 

## t (primary Quads, 1998-2030) > CAC&HP Electricity 44.7 

### 8.2 9.5 10.4 11.5 3.1 19.4 (Percent Change) -18% -21% -23% -26%**~9%** -43% 

### >Total Residential Electricity 394 9.6 11.2 12.5 13.5**~.7** 21'.2 >Total Residential Energy 

### 608 9.4 11.0; 11.6 12.3**~.7** 

### 18.8./

### V

,. 

### 9.SK: NPV (Billion 1990 

### $ @ 7%) 714 8.1 6.9 0.6 -5.6 

## ... -56.0 CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS:

### ~ (Millions, 1998-2030) >CAC 116.3 115.1 114.8 115.6 115.2 1 1.0 103.7 >HP 24.4 25.6 25.4 22.8 21.5 22.4 18.0 Percent Change (%): >CAC -1.2 -1.5 -0.7 -1.1 

### -5.3 -12.6 >HP +1.2 

### +1.0 -1.6 -2.9**~2.0** - 6.4

I

1**10~** 991 'ONOBERVATIONS: Cumulative energy savings range from 8.2 Q (18%) to 19.4 Q (43%). Total residential electricity savings (9.6 Q for trial stadanrd level 1) are greater than electricity savings for CAC and HP alone (8.2 Q), because of substitution of more efficient heat pumps for electric resistance heat. Total residential energy savings (9.4 Q), which include fuels as well as electricity, are very slightly lower than total residential electricity savings, due to some substitution of fossil heat for more expensive heat pumps. Highest NPV ($8. 1 B) is at trial standard 1. Standard levels 1-3 achieve net savings; standard levels 4

-6 incur net costs. Cumulative shipment impacts are less than 3% for trial standard levels I through 4. FUTURE CHANGES: LBL proposes to convert all economic values to 1994 dollars, once the CPI for all of 1994 is made public about January 11. Please phone with questions or comments.

Y

Z06 991'0N 1 €S:9ti S6/90/ti0 OBERVATIONS: 

# I

It Cumulative energy savings range 

### from 8.2 Q (18%) to 19.4 

### Q(43%). Total 

### residential electricity savings (9.6 Q 

### for trial stadanrd level 1) are greater than 

### electricity savings for 

### CAC and HP alone 

### (8.2 Q), 

### because ofsubstitution ofmore efficient 

### heat pumps for electric

### resistance heat. 

### Total residential 

### energy savings (9.4 Q). whichinclude fuels 

### as well as electricity, are very slightly lower 

### than total 

### residential electricity savings, due to some 

### substitution offossil heatfor mOle expensive heatpumps.
It 

### Highest NPV ($8.1 B) 

### is at trial standard 1. Standard 

### levels 1-3 

### achieve net savings; standardlevels 4-6 incur net costs.
It 

### Cumulative shipmentimpacts areless than 

### 3% for trial 

### standard levels 1

### through 4. I

. 

### FUTURE CHANGES:
• LBLproposes to convert all economic values to 1994 dollars, once the CPI for all of 1994 

### is madepublic aboutJanuary 11. Please phone with questions or comments.

2

991: 'ON 

# , I 

# ,