MitchellE. Daniels, Jr. Governor
Thomas W. Easterly Commissioner INDIANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT We makeIndiana a cleaner, healthierplace to live.

100 North Senate Avenue Indianapolis, Indiana46204 (3t7) 232-8603 (800) 45t-6027 www.idernJN.gov

October 10, 2006

Mr. BharatMathur Acting Regional Administrator U.S. EPA, Region 5 77 W. Jackson Blvd. Chicago, IL 60604 Re: CleanAirAct Section 110(1) Demonstration and State

.Implementation Plan Revision for

.Clarkand Floyd Counties, Indiana**DearMr.Math~:** ::'.'- Enclosed is arevislon to the

### Requ~stfor;Redesignation andMaintenance Planfor Attainmentin theIndiana Portion of theLouisvilleBasicNonattainmentArea. Also enclosed for yourreview, please find a non-interferencedemonstration consistentwith Section 110(1) ofthe CleanAirActto support the discontinuation ofthevehicleinspection andmaintenanceprogram for**C~ark** and Floyd counties. IDEM has revised thepetition and maintenanceplan in orderto move the vehicle inspection and maintenanceprogram from Section 6.2, where itwas listed as a measure to remain inplace overthe courseofthemaintenanceplan, to Section 8.0, whereitislisted as a contingencymeasure. IDEM has also revised Section 6.0 to clarifythatlocal and statewide RACT rules have applied to new/existing VOC emission sources locating in Clark and Floyd Counties as requiredby Section 172 ofthe CAAA.
IndianaHouse EnrolledActNo. 1798, effectiveonJuly 

### 1., 2003, amended IC 13-17-5 to eliminatethe applicability ofthe vehicle emissions testingrule to Clark and Floyd counties after December31,.2006, and prohibitthe IndianaAirPollutionControl Board from adopting rules to extend theprogram in those counties afterthat date.

RecycledPaper 

### (i) An Equal OpportunityEmployer Please Recycle 

### 0

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_ ..

## ----------------------_ ......B. Mathur Page 2.

In orderto supportthe discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenanceprogram in Clark and Floyd counties,. IDEM has prepared a demonstration thatmeets the requirements of Section 110(1) ofthe Clean AirAct, hereinafterreferred to as the Section 110(1) demonstration. This demonstration is supported byphotochemical modeling. Photochemical modeling shows that NOx and VOC emissions will slightly increase with the discontinuatio'n ofthe vehicle inspection andmaintenanceprogram. Despite this fact, 2007 total emissions areprojectedto be less than the total 2003 (base year) emission levels. The 2010 and 2020 total emission levels are also projected to be less than total 2003 emissions levels. Therefore, the discontinuation ofthevehicle emissions testingprogram will not interferewith attainmentofthe 8-hourozone standard in Clarkand Floyd counties. Furthermore, this demonstration shows thatthe discontinuation ofthe vehicle emissions testingprogram will not interfere with the area's reasonableprogress towards attainmentofthe National AmbientAir Quality Standard for fine particles (PM 2.5).
Therevised 8,.HourRedesignation Petition and Maintenance Plan forClark andFlQYQ

. counties, as well as the Section 110(1) demonstration, are enclosed. These documents are cUffeptly subjectto publicreview. Apublic hearing concerningthis matteris scheduled forNovemJ>er

### 6; 2006, and IDEM will submitthe final documents to the U.S. EPA by December 1, 2006. IPEM, requests thatthe U.S. EPAparallel process the revised State lJnplementation Plan. ;,
.

, Ifyou have any commellts orquestions**regardingthi~request,** please contact Ms.,Kathy Watson, Branch Chiefin the Office o(AirQuality, at (317)2:33-5694 or lvlI'.**G~.le.,EerPs,,;.** ' Environmental Manager, at (317) 234-3653.

.

omas W. Easterly

, Commissioner

Attachments cc; SteveRosenthal, US EPA (w/enc]osures) JayBortzer, U.S. EPA (w/enclosures) JohnMooney, U.S. EPA (w/enclosures)

## CleanAirAct Section 110(1) 

## Demonstration To Support Discontinuation ofthe Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Program in Clark and Floyd counties, Indiana

Ovezview The IndianaDepartment ofEnvironmental Management (IDEM) has prepared arevision to the Redesignation Petition and Maintenance Plan for Clark and Floyd counties in conjunction with the 8-hourozone standard. This revision is to accommodate the discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenanceprogram for Clark and Floyd counties. Section 110(1) ofthe Clean AirAct states thatthe Administrator (ofthe United States Environmental ProtectionAgency) shall not approve arevision ofaplan (State Implementation Plan or SIP) ifthe revision would interfere with any applicable requirement concerning attainment orreasonable furtherprogress (ofa National AmbientAir Quality Standard). Therefore, IDEM has also prepared a demonstration that shows that the discontinuation ofthe vehicle emissions testingprogram will not interfere with the applicable requirements ofthe National AmbientAir Quality Standards for 8-hourozone and fine particles.**Backgro~d** IDEM**r~seJ,1tly** submitted an 8-Hour Ozone Redesignation Petition and Maintenance Plan for Clark and Floyd counties (dated July2006) to the U.S. EPA requesting that these counties be redesignated to attainment ofthe standard. Clark and Floyd counties, along withthe remaining portion ofthe Louisvillenonattainment area, have attained the NAAQS standard for ozone. Indianahas performed an analysis that shows the airquality improvements are due to permanent and enforceablemeasures and that significantregional NOxreductions following implementation ofPhase II ofthe NOx SIP Call and the Clean Air Interstate Rule will ensure continued compliance (maintenance) withthe standard. Indiana's petition includes a long-term maintenance plan that will beimplemented to ensure that the area continues to meetthe8-hour standard for ground-level ozonethroughthe year 2020. Indiana also committed to maintain all emission control measures necessaryto ensure continued compliance withthe standard following redesignation. The vehicle inspection and maintenanceprogram was first initiated in 1984 in accordance with the CleanAirAct (CAA). This program was augmented in 1997 to a fully enhanced vehicle inspection and maintenanceprogram and wasincorporated within Indiana's I-hour
ozone State Implementation Planin 1996. Althoughthe U.S. EPA revokedthe I-hour ozone standard on June 15, 2005, Clarkand Floyd counties were designated nonattainmentforthe eight-hourozone standard effective June 15,2004. Therefore, the programis required to be inplaceuntil all applicable CleanAirActrequirements are met. The vehicle inspection and maintenanceprogram is authorizedby state statute, IC 13-17-5, paid forbythe general fund, and implemented through rules promulgatedbythe AirPollution Control Board at 326 lAC13-1.1. This program tests approximately 7% oftheregistered automobiles inthe Greater Louisville Basic Ozone Nonattainment Area and costs the State ofIndiana approximately
one million dollars peryearto operate and maintain. The program yields less than a 1% reduction intotal NOx and VOC emissions forthe nonattainment area.

On July 1, 2003, an amendmentto IC 13-17-5 became effectivethatterminates Indiana's vehicle inspection and maintenance rule for Clark andFloyd counties afterDecember 31,2006, and directs the Air Pollution Control Board to amend 326 lAC 13-1.1 to reflectthis change. IDEM is in the process of amending the state rule to accommodate the discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program in Clark and Floyd counties. IDEM has also revised the 8- HourRedesignation Petition and Maintenance Planfor Clarkand Floyd counties in orderto move the vehicleinspection and maintenanceprogram from Section 6.2 where it was listed as a measure toremain inplace overthe course ofthe maintenanceplan, to Section 8.0 where itis listed as a contingencymeasure. IDEM has also revised Section 6.0 to clarifythat Indianainthe mid-1990s promulgatedrules specific to Clarkand Floyd counties thatrequire RACT for new/existing emission sources ofVOCs locating inthese counties.

In orderto supportthe revision to the 8-HourRedesignation Petition and Maintenance Plan for Clark and Floyd counties, IDEM has prepared a demonstration the meets the requirements of Section 110(1) ofthe Clean AirAct, hereinafterreferred to as the Section 110(1) demonstration. This demonstration is supportedbyphotochemical modeling and an emissions analysis. Photochemical modeling shows thatNOx emissions will increaseby 0.78 tons per summerday and 0.82·tons perwinterday withthe discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program. VOC emissions will also increaseby0.79 tons per summerday and 1.49 tons per winterday. Despite this fact 2007 total emissions are projected to be less than the total 2002 emission levels (base year for PM 2.5), 2003 total emission levels (base year for the ozone maintenanceplan), and 2009 total emission levels (deadline for monitoring attainmentunderthe PM 2.5 standard). The 2010 and 2020 total emission levels referenced inthe ozone maintenance plan are also projected to be less than the total 2003 emissions levels. Therefore, the discontinuation ofthe vehicle emissions testing program will not interfere with attainment ofthe 8-hourozonestandard in Clark and Floyd counties, or elsewhere within the nonattainment area. Furthermore, this demonstration shows thatthe discontinuation ofthe vehicle emissions testing program will not interfere withthe area's reasonable progress towards attainment ofthe National Ambient Air Quality Standard for fine particles (PM 2.5)
The vehicle inspection and maintenance program was implemented as a volatile organic compound (VOC) emission control measure specificallyin association with the I-hour ozone standard (revoked effectiveJune 15, 2005). Theprogram does not fail motorvehicles for exceeding tailpipe standards for oxides ofnitrogen (NOx) emissions. However, since VOC and NOx areprecursors for ozone, IDEM's 110(1) demonstration**~ssesses** the potential impact of bothprecursors on future ozone concentrations. Although the vehicle inspection and maintenance program was not implemented as a control mechanism forparticulatematterorfine particles, IDEM's 110(1) demonstration assesses the potential impactthat the discontinuation ofthe programmayhave onthe area's abilityto attain the annual standard for fine particles. However,sinceVOC is not considered aprecursorfor fine particles, NOx is theonlyprecursorincluded in the assessment, even though the vehicle inspection andmaintenanceprogram does not serve as a NOx control measure.Section 110(1) Technical SupportDocument

Introduction for Photochemical Modeling for Ozone and PM2.5 Assessment
IDEM's Office ofAir Quality conductedphotochemical modeling to determine whetherthe discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance programin Clark and Floyd counties would adversely affect the area's ability to attain ormaintain compliance with applicable National Ambient Air Quality Standards. The discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenanceprogram does result inthe loss ofNOx and VOC emissionreductions, andthus could affect ozone and fine particle concentrations. This potential increase in emissions was determined using local travel demand model data and emission factors deriving from MOBILE6. The increased emissions were added to the existing emission profiles for Clark and Floyd counties and were modeled and compared to the previous modeling results that included the vehicle inspection and maintenance program in Clark and Floyd counties. Any difference between the two model runs represents the impact on future year design values for ozone or PM2.5monitors located in Clark and Floyd counties.
Emissions Estimation and Photochemical Modeling Methodologies
IDEM is a member ofthe Midwest Regional Planning Organization (MRPO), whichuses photochemical modeling to determine emission control strategies for attainment State Implementation Plans (SIPs) for Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio. The Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO) supports the MRPO and supplied emissions, meteorological and chemistry files as well as photochemical model source codesused inthis analysis. Indianafollowed the U.S. EPA guidance in all modeling and attainment demonstration methods for this analysis.
Emissions Estimation Methodology IDEM's Office ofAir Quality adjusted the emissions in orderto determine the impact ofthe discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program in Clark and Floyd counties. LADCO provided the 2002 base case emissions and future year emissions for 2009 as well as the weighting factors to interpolate 2007 emissions betweenthe 2002 and 2009 emissions. Future year2009 emissions were created to accountfor economic growth and emission control strategies that will be in place by 2009 for all emissions sectors. Modeling results show the downward trend for each modeled yearand validates this analysis:
LADCO provided a computer software patchto calculate 2007 emissions for all emissions sectors. The emissions adjustments for 2007 were an estimation ofall emission sectors between the known (2002) and calculated (2009) future emission levels. The weighting factor consists of the fraction ofthe number ofyears from eachtime period. The weighting factors used for determining the 2007 emissions are 0.285 (2/7thS ofthe emissions from2002) for 2002 emissions and 0.714 (5/7ths ofthe emissions from 2009) for 2009 emissions. The**weight~ng** factors were applied to the motor vehicle, low-level point, area sources (marine-air-rail, nonroad and other) and ammonia emissions. The weighting factors were not applied to the elevatedpoint source

1emissions because no significantemission changes are expected to thatparticular source sector between 2007 and 2009. Therefore, 2009 elevated point source emissions were used. Each' emission sectorfile was quality assured to determine specific pollutantemissions in grammoles/day, kilograms/day and tons/day. Once emission adjustments were made, all emissions sectors were mergedto create 2007 emissions.
LADCO has a computerprogram that adjusts emissions for a specific county and emission sector. Forthe purpose ofthis analysis, the discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program in Clark and Floyd counties only affected mobile emissions; therefore the mobile emissions were the only emission sectoranalyzed. The difference betweenthe total 2007 emissions andthe total 2007 emissions with Clark and Floyd counties emissions zeroed-out, representthe mobile emissions for Clark and Floyd counties. Table 1.1 shows the modeled mobile source emissions for Clark and Floyd counties for the years 2002,2007 and 2009. All emissions data include the vehicle inspection and maintenance program in Clarkand Floyd counties. The quality assured results ofthese emissions adjustments can be found inAppendix A. Also referenced in Appendix A are the total 2007 emissions, 2007 emissions minus the Clark County emissions and the 2007 emissions minus the Floyd County emissions.



### t . M d 

## r I f 

### Table 1.1 2002 2007 d 2009 M b·1 

### S E·· 

## , an 

### ole ource missions rom 

### o e 1112 

### nven ones 2002

- summer

. 2007

- summer 2009

- summer Clark Floyd Clark Floyd Clark Floyd tons/day tons/day tons/day tons/day tons/day tons/day NOx 12km 13.74 5.43 10.4 3.95 8.43 3.37 36km 20.96 5.38 15.45 3.88 13.26 3.28 VOC 12km 9.46**4~00** 7.93 3.03 6.11 2.65 36km 12.63 3.38 9.77 2.54 8.65 2.21 2002

- winter 2007

- winter 2009

- winter Clark Floyd Clark Floyd Clark Floyd tons/day tons/day tons/day tons/day tons/day tons/day NOx 36km 23.6 6.09 17.39 4.39 14.93 3.72 VOC 36km 13.73 3.67 10.63 2.76 9.39 2.39
Based onthe MOBILE6 emissionmodeling conducted to determine the impact onNOx and VOC emissions from the discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program in Clarkand Floyd counties, for the year 2007, the increase inNOx emissions was 0.78 tons per summer day and 0.82 tons ofNOx per winter day. VOC emissions were calculated to increase by 0.79 tons per summer day and 1.49 tons perwinter day. This change in the NOx and VOC emissions was then used to determine multipliers in orderto adjustthe mobile inventory inthe modeling files. The multipliers were for both Clark and Floyd counties: NOx

- 1.047 for
summerand 1.048 for winter; VOC

- 1.125 for summer and 1.134 for winter. The emission estimates were calculated forthe six wintermonths ofOctober, November, December, January, February and March and the six summermonths ofApril, May, June, July, August and September. The emission adjustments were then made to the 2007 mobile modeling files with

2Clark County NOx and VOC emissions adjusted first and the Floyd CountyNOx and VOC emissions adjusted secondto account for the discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program in those counties. This createdthe new 2007 mobile emission files which
were quality assured andpre-processed withthe otheremission source categories for use in CAMx.
Photochemical Modeling Methodology The Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) was the photochemical model used; this model is accepted by the U.S. EPA. The meteorology used was the summer of2002 for ozone and the entire yearof2002for PM2.5. Three separate modeling runs were conducted;
one model run to determine base year (2002) concentrations, one future year (2007) model run included additional NOx and VOC emissions from the discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenanceprogram (without 11M), and one future year (2007) model run with the NOx and VOC emission reductions associated with the vehicle inspection and maintenance program (with 11M). The 2007 ozone and PM2

.5modeled results were post-processed and evaluated using the U.S. EPA's attainmenttest guidelines. Future yeardesign values were calculated from the modeling runs with and withoutthe vehicle inspection and maintenance programbeing inplace. The impact onthe future yeardesign values for ozone and PM2.5 monitors in Clark and Floyd counties was determined.
Photochemical Modeling Results for Ozone
Theresults ofthe 8-hour ozone attainment test compared the 2007 design values for Clark and Floyd counties withthe vehicle inspection and maintenance programinplace to the 2007 design values for Clark and Floyd counties assuming the discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program. The difference inthe future year design values were modeled atthe Charlestown, ClarkCounty and New Albany, Floyd County ozone monitors, as well as for the additional sites within the nonattainment area. The difference is an increase in the future year design value for ozone of+0.0001 ppm at the Charlestown ozone monitor. No difference inthe future year design value for the New Albany site or other sites withinthe nonattainment areawas determined. All design values are projected to be below the standard of0.085 ppm. Table 1.2 lists themodeled results from the ozone attainmenttest and the difference in future year design values as a result ofthe discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program for Clark and Floyd counties. Since only the third significant digit is used in computation andthe modeled difference for the Charlestown site affects the fourth significant digit, there is virtually
no difference inthe modeled design values for any monitoring site. IDEM used the average of three design values (2000-2002, 2001-2003, and 2002-2004) for this assessment. The period of time associated withthe average design value encompasses the design value that was used in designating the areanonattainment (2001-2003) and the design value usedto support IDEM's redesignationpetition for Clark and Floyd counties (2003-2005, with 2003 representing the base year).



### 3

### Table 1.2 8-hourOzone Attainment Results for NonattainmentArea 2007 2007 No 1M Difference MonitorlD ST County 00 02 01 03 02 04 AVGDV RRF FYDV FYDV ppm ppm ppm ppm ppm ppm ppm 1801900031 IN Clark 0.090 0.092 0.088 0.090 0.93 0.083 0.083 +0.0001 1804310041 IN Floyd 0.083 0.086 0.084 0.084 0.93 0.078 0.078 0.0000 2102900061 KY Bullitt 0.085 0.081 0.076 0.080 0.94 0.076 0.076 0.0000 2111100271 KY Jefferson 0.085 0.079 0.075 0.086 0.94 0.075 0.075 0.0000 2111100511 KY Jefferson 0.084 0.084 0.080 0.084 0.94 0.077 0.077 0.0000 2111110211 KY Jefferson 0.083 0.079 0.076 0.083 0.94 0.074 0.074 0.0000 2118500041 KY Oldham 0.087 0.086 0.083 0.085 0.93 0.079 0.079 0.0000



### 00_02

- design value from (2000-2002), 

### 01_03

- design value from (2001-2003), 

### 02_04

- design value from (2002-2004), 

### AVGDV

- average**ofth~** 3 design values, RRF

- relative reduction factor

- ratio offuture year and base year modeling, 

### 2007 FYDV

- future yeardesign value with Clark/Floyd I&M program, and 

### 2007 No 1M FYDV

- future yeardesign value without Clark/Floyd I&M program, 

### Difference

- the partpermillion differences betweenthe future year design values.
It should be noted thatthe ozone model performance is within the

## u.s. EPA guidance and is considered State Implementation Plan (SIP) quality. Information onthe attainmenttest, calculating relative reduction factors and other additional 8-hourozone documentation was taken from the "Guidance onthe Use ofModels and OtherAnalyses in Attainment Demonstrations for the 8-hour Ozone NAAQS.
Photochemical modeling was conductedby the U.S. EPA and LADCO in support ofthe Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). The modeling results show future year design values for 8-hour
ozone well withinthe 8-hourozone NAAQS of0.085 parts permillion (ppm). Table 1.3 shows the U.S. EPA modeling results for CAIR. All sites in Clark and Floyd counties and in Bullitt, Jefferson and Oldham Counties in Kentucky are predicted to have future year design values in 2010 and 2015 below 0.085 ppm andwill be in attainment.



### A O 

### Itt t R I Table 1.3 M d 

## r R It fj 

### U S EPA fi 

### th CI 

## o 8H



# - our zone o e 102 

### esu s rom ° • 

### or e ean lr n ers a e ue Future Future Design Value Design Value Design Value County State MSAlCMSA 1999-2003 2010 with CAIR 2015 with CAIR (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) Clark Indiana Louisville 0.0893 0.0784 0.0735 Floyd Indiana Louisville 0.0837 0.0752 0.0703 Bullitt Kentueky Louisville 0.0837 0.0731 0.0693 Jefferson Kentucky Louisville 0.0843 0.0749 0.0711 Oldham Kentucky Louisville 0.0880 0.0756 0.0710



### 4Table 1.4 shows the LADCO

- Round 4 modeling results for CAIR. All sites in Clark and Floyd counties and in Bullitt, Jefferson and Oldham Counties in Kentucky are predicted to have future year design values in 2009,2012 and 2018 below 0.085 ppm and will be in attainment.



### Table 1.4 LADCO's Round 4 

### 8-Hour Ozone Modeling Results for the Clean Air Interstate Rule 2009 Future 2012 Future 2018 Future Design Value Design Value Design Value Design Value Monitor ID County State 2000-2004 with CAIR with CAIR with CAIR (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) 180190003 Clark Indiana 0.0900 0.0825 0.0792 0.0763 180431004 Floyd Indiana 0.0843 0.0774 0.0757 0.0725 210290006 Bullitt Kentucky 0.0807 0.0748 0.0720 0.0680 211110027 Jefferson Kentucky 0.0797 0.0739 0.0709 0.0680 211110051 Jefferson Kentucky 0.0827 0.0763 0.0744 0.0708 211111021 Jefferson Kentucky 0.0793 0.0733 0.0717 0.0691 211850004 Oldham Kentucky 0.0853 0.0776 0.0743 0.0715
Table 1.5 compares projected2007 total emissions for Clark and Floyd counties with 2003 total emissions for Clark and Floyd counties. The 2007 and 2009 emissionprojections account for the discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program. The base year for Indiana's request for Clark and Floyd counties to be redesignatedto attainmentunderthe 8-hourozone standard is 2003. As Table 1.5 illustrates, the total emissions for 2007 and 2009 are projected to be less than 2003 emission levels, despite the mobile source VOC and NOx emissions.increasing by less than a ton eachper summer day. The 2010 and 2020 emissions referenced inthe maintenance plan remain below 2003 emissions as well, and have not been revised since the vehicle emissions testing program was excluded from the calculations. As illustrated in Table 1.6, once the 2007 emissionreduction benefit for the vehicle emissions testing program is comparedto the 2003 (base year) total emissions for the entire nonattainmentarea, the program yields well less than a 1% emissionreduction benefitfor VOC and NOx. Historically, photochemical modeling sensitivity tests have shownthat a local reduction of 15%-25% VOC is requiredto reduce ozone by 1 ppb.


### Table 1.5 2003 and 2007 Emissions Comparison Clarkand Floyd counties (tons per summer day)
2003 2007 2009 VOC 29.26 28.59 26.33 

### NOx 51.77 41.89 38.84

Note: 2003 emissions include the vehicle inspection and maintenance program, 2007 emissions exclude the program.



### 5

### Table 1.6 Percentage Impactof11M Emission Reduction on Base Yea.; Emissions for Entire NonattainmentArea (tons per summer day)

2003 Total 

### 11M Benefit 

### % Impact 

## voe 133.11 0.79 0.6% NOx 

### 238.77 0.78 0.3%

Photochemical Modeling Results for Fine Particles
The attainmenttest for 

### PM2.5 compared the 2007 design values for Clark and Floyd counties with the vehicle inspection and maintenance program in place to the 2007 design values for Clark and Floyd counties assuming the discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program. This testwas also conducted for the other sites withinthe nonattainment area. The difference in the future year design values was modeled atthe Jeffersonville, Clark County andNew Albany, Floyd County 

### PM2
.5monitors as well as forthe additional sites in Bullittand Jefferson Counties in Kentucky. Table 1.7 lists the modeledresults from the 

### PM2
.5 attainmenttest and the difference in future year design values as a result ofthe discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program. The attainmenttest for 

### PM2 .5 offered speciation ofthe 

### PM2.5

. composition. This speciation includes sulfates, nitrates, organic and elemental carbon, ammonia and soil. The impact onthe annual future year design value for 

### PM2

.5 was -0.1 ug/m3 at the Jeffersonville and New Albany 

### PM2.5 monitors, as well as at several ofthe Kentucky sites. These results reflect an insignificantbenefitresulting from the photochemical sensitivity associated withthe affected species. The speciated modeling results of

### PM2.5 mass showed a minor impact for nitrates and ammonia from discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program for Clark and Floyd counties. There are no 24-hour

### PM2.5 nonattainment areas in Indiana, so the 24-hour

### PM2.5 future year design values were not calculated.



### 6Table 1.7
f 

### R It fi 

### CI k d FI d IPM2 5 At· Annua 

# . t amment esu s or ar an Oyl coun les 2007 2002 2007 NolM Monitor 10 51 County Winter Spring Summer Fall BYDV FYDV FYDV Difference ug/m3 ug/m3 ug/m3 ug/m3 ug/m3 ug/m3 ua/m3 ua/m3 180190005 IN Clark 15.9 16.7 20.5 15.5 17.2 15.7 15.6 -0.1 180431004 IN Floyd 13.4 14.8 19.5 11.9 14.9 13.4 13.3 -0.1 210290006 KY Bullitt 13.2 15 19.9 11.4 14.9 13.5 13.4 -0.1 211110043 KY Jefferson 13.1 15.8 21.8 12.9 15.9 14.4 14.4 0.0 211110044 KY Jefferson 14.2 16.1 22.5 13.5 16.6 15.1 15.0 -0.1· 211110048 KY Jefferson 13.3 15.5 22.2 13.2 16.1 14.6 14.5 -0.1
Winter

- Winter quarterly modeled average for Base Year, Spring

- Spring quarterly modeled average for Base Year, Summer

- Summerquarterly modeled average for Base Year, Fall- Fall quarterly modeled average for Base Year, BYDV

- Modeled Base Year Design Value, 

### 2007 FYDV

- future year design value with Clark/Floyd I&M program, 

### 2007 No 1M FYDV

- future/year design value without Clark/Floyd I&M program, and Difference

- the microgramper cubic meter differences betweenthe future yeardesign values.
It is worth noting that thePM2.5 model performance is outside the bounds forthe bias, error, fractional bias and fractional errormatrices, as per U.S. EPAphotochemical modeling criteria. Improvement inthe PM2.5 model performance is necessary. These modeling results may change with improved model performance, however, the impacts onthe annual PM2.5 future year design values are expected to be minimal. The information on the attainmenttest and other additional PM2 .5 documentation was taken from the "Guidance for Demonstrating Attainment ofAir Quality Goals for PM2.5 and Regional Haze".
Photochemical modeling was conducted by the U.S. EPA and LADCD in support ofthe Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). The modeling results show future year design values for annual PM2 .5 within the annual PM2 .5NAAQS of15.0 micrograms per cubic meter (ug/m3). Table 1.8 shows the U.S. EPA modeling results for CAIR. Floyd County in Indianaand Bullitt County in Kentucky are projected to attain the annual PM2

.5NAAQS by 2010. All sites in Clark and Floyd counties and in Bullitt County in Kentucky are predicted to have future yeardesign values in 2015 below 15.0 ug/m3 and will be in attainment. Jefferson County in Kentucky is predicted to exceed the annual PM2

.5NAAQS. However, itis within 3% ofthe standard in 2010 and 1% of the standard in 2015.



### 7

### Table 1.8
A· Itt t R I U S EPA fi 

### th CI IPM M d 

## r R It f A

### nnua 2.5 o em2 esu s rom 

# . . or e ean lr n ers a e ue Future Future Design Value Design Value Design Value County State MSAlCMSA 1999-2003 2010 with CAIR 2015 with CAIR (ug/m3)

. (ug/m3) (ug/m3) Clark Indiana Louisville 16.90 15.15 14.79 Floyd Indiana Louisville 15.35 13.54 13.27 Bullitt Kentucky Louisville 15.61 13.67 13.13 Jefferson Kentucky Louisville 17.07 15.44 15.13
Table 1.9 shows the LADCO

- Round 4 modeling results for CAIR. All sites in Clarkand Floyd counties and in Bullitt, Jefferson and Oldham Counties in Kentucky are predicted to have future year design values in 2009,2012 and 2018 below 15.0 ug/m3 and in attainment.


### Table 1.9
A' Itt t R I IPM M d 

## r R It fi 

### th CI LADeo' Rd4A 

### s oun nnua 2.5 o em2 esu s or e ean lr n ers a e ue 2009 Future 2012 Future 2018 Future Design Value Design Value Design Value Design Value Monitor ID County State 2000-2004 with CAIR with CAIR with CAIR (ug/m3) (ug/m3) (ug/m3) (uq/m3) 180190006 Clark Indiana 16.5, 14.5 14.0 13.7 180431004 Floyd Indiana 14.9 13.2 12.8 12.3 210290006 Bullitt Kentucky 15.0 13.3 12.8 12.2 211110043 Jefferson Kentucky 16.8 14.2 13.8 13.3 211110044 Jefferson Kentucky 16.5 14.8 14.4 13.7 211110048 Jefferson Kentucky 16.0 14.3 13.9 13.9

Table 1.10 summarizes total NOx emissions for Clark and Floyd counties for the years 2002 (base year for the 

### PM2;5 standard with 11M inplace), 2007 (assuming the discontinuation ofthe 11Mprogram), and 2009 (the deadline for monitoring attainment ofthe standard). As Table 1.10 illustrates, total NOx emissions forthe years 2007 and 2009, withthe reductions associated with the vehicle emissions testing program excluded, are less than the total NOx emissions in 2002 (the base year for the standard) when the program was in place.



### Table 1.10
NOx 

### Emissions Analysis for PM2.5 Clarkand Floyd counties (tons per day)

2002 2007 

## I 2009 INOx 57.59 41.89 

## I 38.82



### 8Conclusions
iDEM's Office ofAir Quality conducted an ozone and PM2.5 assessmentto determine ifthere would be impacts from additional mobile source VOC and NOx emissions as aresult ofthe discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program for Clark and Floyd counties. Photochemical modeling was conducted for the summer of2002 for ozone and the entire year of 2002 for PM2

.5

. CAMx is the U.S. EPA accepted photochemical model used in conjunction with emissions and chemistry files obtained from the MRPO. Emission adjustments were made to the 200212009 emission files in orderto create a 2007 emissions profile. The motor vehicle emissions for Clark and Floyd counties were determined and the anticipated increase in NOx and VOC emissions were added to the 2007 emissions inventory. Modeling results were used in the U.S. EPA attainmenttests for 8-hourozone and annual PM2 .5 to determine ifadditional VOC and NOx emissions associated with the discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program would impactthe ozone and PM2 .5monitors inthe nonattainment area. Based on the attainmenttests, there was an increase of+0.0001 ppm for the future year ozone design value atthe Charlestown ozone monitor. Since only the third significant digit is used in computation and the modeled difference for the Charlestown site affects the fourth significant digit (.0001), there is virtually no difference in the modeled design values for either site in Clarkand Floyd counties. The projected design value for 2007(.084 ppm) is below the 8-hourozone standard and identical to the design value that serves as the base year in the redesignationpetition andmaintenance plan (2003-2005, with 2003 serving as the base year). More importantly, once the discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program is accounted for, 2007 VOC and NOx emissions are projected to be lowerthan 2003 NOx and VOC emission levels. Therefore, the discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program for Clark and Floyd counties will not interfere with attainment ofthe 8- hour ozone standard (orany other applicable requirement ofthe Clean Air Act).
A difference of-0.1 ug/m3 ofthe annual future year designvalues for several monitors within the nonattainmeht areawas found, with the difference coming from nitrate concentrations. Though this reflects a potential benefit, a one-tenth ofa microgram per cubic meter impact is negligible. More importantly, an emissions analysis demonstrates thattotal NOx emissions for the years 2007 and 2009, withthe reductions associated withthe vehicle emissions testing programexcluded, are less than the total NOx emissions in 2002 (the base year forthe standard) when the program was inplace. Therefore, the discontinuation ofthe vehicle inspection and maintenance program for Clark and Floyd counties will not interfere with the area's ability to achieve reasonable progress towards attainment ofstandard by its assigned deadline (April 5, 2010). '



### 9

# Appendix A

QualityAssured Emission File Results for Summer/WinterDays

- 2007

### Winter Day

- Mobile emissions with Winter Day

- Mobile emissions with Clark Floyd County emissions zeroed out

- 36 km Floyd County emissions without I&M

- 36 km

motv.020111.4rpos.36.2007K+fwin_zero.ld.bin motv.020111.4rpos.36.2007K+c_fpm.ld.bin Floyd Co. C/F diff Species gram-moles/day kg/day tons/day tons/day Species gram-moles/day kg/day tons/day tons/day NO 287948672 8638461 9522 3.75 NO 288089120 8642674 9527 0.90 N02 31994834 1471762 1622 0.64 N02 32010446 1472481 1623 0.15 OLE 9960725 318743 351 0.09 OLE 9965143 318885 352 0.06 PAR 3576E;>9952 5722720 6308 1.70 PAR 357829568 5725274 6311 1.11 TOl 8030421 899407 991 0.27 TOl 8034014 899810 992 0.18 XYl 8266199 1058074 1166 0.32 XYl 8269902 1058548 1167 0.21 FORM 13317644 213082 235 0.06 FORM 13323531 213177 235 0.04 AlD2 18468482 590991 651 0.17 AlD2 18476546 591250 652 0.11 ETH 407328 13034 14 0.00 ETH 407478 13039 14 0.00 MEOH 0 0 0 0.00 MEOH 0 0 0 0.00 ETOH 1096896 35101 39 0.01 ETOH 1097389 35116 39 0.01 ISOP 279709 22377 25 0.01 ISOP 279835 22387 25 0.00 NR 25359030 405745 447 0.12 NR 25370410 405927 447 0.08 CO 5028080640 140786272 155188 0.00 CO 5028080640 140786272 155188 0.00 S02 188995 12096 13 0.00 S02 188995 12096 13 0.00 FPRM 0 0 0 0.00 FPRM 0 0 0 0.00 CPRM 0 0 0 0.00 CPRM 0 0 0 0.00 NH3 52352260 889988 981 0.00 NH3 52352260 889988 981 0.00 TERPB 0 0 0 0.00 TERPB 0 0 0 0.00 SUlF 48619 49 0 0.00 SUlF 48619 49 0 0.00 PEC 176041552 176042 194 0.00 PEC 176041552 176042 194 0.00 PN03 0 0 0 0.00 PN03 0 0 0 0.00 POA 118978376 118978 131 0.00 POA 118978376 118978 131 0.00 PS04 0 0 0 0.00 PS04 0 0 0 0.00 FCRS 0 0 0 0.00 FCRS 0 0 0 0.00 CCRS 0 0 0 0.00 CCRS 0 0 0 0.00

### SummerDay

- Mobile emissions with SummerDay

- Mobile emissions with 'Clark Floyd County emissions zeroed out

- 12km Floyd County emissions without I&M

- 12 km

motv.020712.upmw.12.2007K2fwin_zero.ld.bin motv.020712.upmw.12.2007K2c1arkfloyd.ld.bin Floyd Co. C/F diff Species gram-moles/day kg/day tons/day tons/day Species gram-moles/day kg/day tons/day tons/day NO 111509512 3345286 3687 3.38 NO 111628600 3348858 3691 0.56 N02 12389948 569938 628 0.58 N02 12403185 570547 629 0.10 OLE 3749647 119989 132 0.10 OLE 3753843 120123 132 0.04 PAR 133818712 2141100 2360 1.87 PAR 133969032 2143505 2363 0.79 TOl 2993809 335307 370 0.29 TOl 2997180 335684 370 0.12 XYl 3081079 394378 435 0.35 XYl 3084549 394822 435 0.14 FORM 5032338 80517 89 0.07 FORM 5037952 80607 89 0.03 AlD2 7060891 225949 249 0.19 AlD2 7068703 226199 249 0.08 ETH 181583 5811 6 0.00 ETH 181761 5816 6 0.00 MEOH 0 0 0 0.00 MEOH 0 0 0 0.00 ETOH 407553 13042 14 0.01 ETOH 408014 13056 14 0.00 ISOP 103927 8314 9 0.01 ISOP 104045 8324 9 0.00 NR 9422213 150755 166 0.13 NR 9432855 150926 166 0.06 CO 1366784512 38269968 42185 0.00 CO 1366784512 38269968 42185 0.00 S02 67196 4301 5 0.00 S02 67196 4301 5 0.00 FPRM 0 0 0 0.00 FPRM 0 0 0 0.00 CPRM 0 0 0 0.00 CPRM 0 0 0 0.00 NH3. 16705059 283986 313 0.00 NH3 16705059 283986 313 0.00 TERPB 0 0 0 0.00 TERPB 0 0 0 0.00 SUlF 16892 17 0 0.00 SUlF 16892 17 0 0.00 PEC 71047504 71048 78 0.00 PEC 71047504 71048 78 0.00 PN03 0 0 0 0.00 PN03 0 0 0 0.00 POA 40842556 40843 45 0.00 POA 40842556 40843 45 0.00 PS04 0 0 0 0.00 PS04 0 0 0 0.00 FCRS 0 0 0 0.00 FCRS 0 0 0 0.00 CCRS 0 0 0 0.00 CCRS 0 0 0 0.00

### SummerDay

- Mobile emissions for SummerDay

- Mobile emissions with entire modeling domain

- 36km Clark County emissions zeroed out

- 36km

motv.020712.4rpos.36.2007K+.ld.bin motv.020712.4rpos.36.2007K+csum_zero.ld.bin Clark Co. Species gram-moles/day kg/day tons/day Species gram-moles/day kg/day tons/day tons/day NO 246790736 7403723 8161 NO 246391648 7391750 8148 13.20 N02 27421140 1261373 1390 N02 27376806 1259333 1388 2.25 OLE 8496039 271873 300 OLE 8486554 271570 299 0.33 PAR 303624512 4857993 5355 PAR 303282464 4852520 5349 6.03 TOl 6798299 761410 839 TOl 6790603 760548 838 0.95 XYl 6996867 895599 987 XYl 6988941 894585 986 1.12 FORM 11392839 182285 201 FORM 11380171 182083 201 0.22 AlD2 15943375 510188 562 AlD2 15925922 509630 562 0.62 ETH 396935 12702 14 ETH 396590 12691 14 0.01 MEOH 0 0 0 MEOH 0 0 0 0.00 ETOH 926190 29638 33 ETOH 925136 29604 33 0.04 ISOP 236180 18894 21 ISOP 235911 18873 21 0.02 NR 21412068 342593 378 NR 21387724 342204 377 0.43 CO 3101154816 86832336 95715 CO 3101154816 86832336 95715 0.00 159118 10184 11 $02 159118 10184 11 0.00 S02 0 0 FPRM 0 0 0 0.00 FPRM 0 0 0 CPRM 0 0 0 0.00 CPRM 0 888479 979 NH3 52263464 888479 979 0.00 NH3 52263464 0 0 TERPB 0 0 0 0.00 TERPB 0 ·SUlF 47402 47 0 0.00 SUlF 47402 47 0 193 PEC 175457440 175457 193 0.00 PEC 175457440 175457 PN03 0 0 0 0.00 PN03 0 0 0 0.00 POA 118578632 118579 131 POA 118578632 118579 131 0.00 PS04 0 0 0 PS04 0 0 0 0.00 FCRS 0 {) 0 FCRS 0 0 0 0.00 CCRS 

## a a 0 CCRS 

## a a 0

### S1,lmmerDay

- Mobile emissions with SummerDay

- Mobile emissions with Clark Floyd County emissions zeroed out

- 36km Floyd County emissions withoutI&M

- 36 km motv.020712.4rpos.36.2007K+fsum_zero.ld.bin motv.020712.4rpos.36.2007K+c _fpm.Id.bin Floyd Co. C/F diff Species gram-moles/day kg/day tons/day tons/day Species gram-moles/day kg/day tons/day tons/day NO 246690448 7400714 8158 3.32 NO 246814160 7404425 8162 0.77 N02 27409998 1260860 1390 0.57 N02 27423748 1261493 1391 0.13

. OLE 8493574 271794 300 0.09 OLE 8497535 271921 300 0.05

PAR 303535744 4856572 5353 1.57 PAR 303678656 4858859 5356 0.95 TOl 6796303 761186 839 0.25 TOl 6799520 761546 839 0.15 XYl 6994810 895336 987 0.29 XYl 6998121 895760 987 0.18 FORM 11389541 182233 201 0.06 FORM 11394848 182318 201 0.04 AlD2 15938810 510042 562 AlD2 15946143 510277 562 0.10 0.16 ETH 396839 12699 14 ETH 396990 12704 14 0.00 0.00 MEOH 0 0 0 MEOH 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 ETOH 925917 29629 33 ETOH 926357 29643 33 0.01 0.01 ISOP 236110 18889 21 ISOP 236222 18898 21 0.00 0.01 NR 21405758 342492 NR 21415934 342655 378 0.07 378 0.11 CO 3101154816 86832336 CO 3101154816 86832336 95715 0.00 95715 0.00 S02 159118 10184 0.00 S02 159118 10184 11 0.00 11 FPRM 0 0 0.00 FPRM 0 0 0 0.00 0 CPRM 0 0.00 CPRM 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 NH3 52263464 0.00 NH3 52263464 888479 979 0.00 888479 979 TERPB 0.00 TERPB 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 SUlF 47402 0.00 SUlF 47402 47 0 0.00 47 0 PEC 175457440 0.00 PEC 175457440 175457 193 0.00 175457 193 PN03 0.00 PN03 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 POA 0.00 POA 118578632 118579 131 0.00 118578632 118579 131 PS04 0.00 PS04 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 FCRS 0.00 FCRS 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 CCRS 0.00 CCRS 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0

### Emissions by Source Category for Clark and Floyd Counties (tons per summer day)

NOx VOC 2007 2009 2007 2009 Clark Floyd Clark Floyd Clark Floyd Clark Floyd
area other 0.31 0.13 0.31 0.14 4.73 1.38 4.58 1.35 area nonroad 3.03 0.73 2.81 0.68 3.97 0.87 3.43 0.74 area mar 5.99 1.73 6.01 1.73 0.47 0.12 0.47 0.12 motv 15.45 3.88 13.26 3.28 9.77

. 2.54 8.65 2.21 lowp 0.09 0.1 0.08 0.07 1.17 0.51 1.19 0.53 PTSR nonEGU 1.23 0.28 1.23 0.28 1.56 0.62 1.56 0.62 PTSR EGU 2.75 5.41 2.75 5.41 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.03 TOTAL 28.84 12.27 26.44 11.60 21.72 6.07 19.93 5.60 No CIF I&M 0.78 0.79 2007 2009 2007 2009 Clark/Floyd TOTAL 41.89 38.82 28.59 26.33