## MARYLAND DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT 1800 Washington Boulevard • Baltimore 

### MD 21230 

# MDE 41o-s37-3ooo. 1-8oo-633-6101

Martin O'Malley Shari T. Wilson Governor Secretary Anthony Brown Robert M. Summers, Ph.D. Lt. Governor Deputy Secretary 

# BaltimoreNonattainmentArea PM2.s StateImplementation Plan and Base YearInventory

SIPNumber: 08-04 March 24, 2008

Prepared for: 

# U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Prepared by: Maryland Department ofthe Environment

## This Page Left Intentionally Blank

BNAA PM2.s SIP II 3/24/20081.0 1.1 

### 1.2 1.3 1.4 

### 1.5 1.6 1.7 

### 1.8 1.9 1.10 1.11 

### 1.12 1.13 2.0 

### 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 

### 2.5 2.6 2.7 

### 2.8 3.0 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............. ... .. .......................... ...... ........................ . ... ... . . ................ I INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND .......................... ... ..... ........ ....... .... .............................. . .... 1 SIP REQUIREMENTS FOR NONATTAINMENT AREAS . ....... .... ............. ... ... ................... .. ............ 4 SIP PROCESS.. ... .. . . ... ....... ....................................................... ..... ...................... ... . ... . ... .......... . 5 STATE COMMITMENT/IMPLEMENTATION ASSURANCES .................. ......... .... ..... .. ....... ........ . ... . 5 SUBMITTAL OF THE PLANS .................................. .... ....................... . ............... . ........................ 5 SANCTIONS ......................... ...... .................... . ...................................... ... ......... ...... ................. 6 BASE YEAR 2002 EMISSION INVENTORY AND FUTURE YEAR 2009 EMISSION INVENTORY .... 6 REDUCTIONS IN PM2.s PRECURSORS FROM MEASURES, 2002-2009 ........................................ 8 ESTABLISHMENT OF A BUDGET FOR TRANSPORTATION MOBILE EMISSIONS ........................... 8 ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION .................................. ............ ............................... .. ....... ... .... 8 DETERMINATION OF REASONABLY AVAILABLE CONTROL MEASURES (RACM).................... 9 CONTINGENCY MEASURES ........................................... ... ... .. ............................... ...... ........... ... 9 DOCUMENT CONTENTS ..................................................................................................... . ..... 9 FINE PARTICLE POLLUTION .......................... ............................................................... 11 DEFINITION OF FINE PARTICLE MATTER .................. ....................................... ...................... 11 HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS .. .. .. .. ..... .... .. .. .... ........ .. .. ... .. .. .. ... .... ........ ..... .. ..... .. .. 11 SEASONAL VARIATION OF PM2.5 CONSTITUENTS .......... .... ............................ ...................... 13 DIURNAL VARIATION OF FINE PARTICLES ....... .. ... ....... ................... ........ ..... .............. ........... 19 TRAJECTORIES OF FINE PARTICLES ....................................................................................... 20 MAJOR CONSTITUENTS OF PM2.5 AND SOURCES IN THE BALTIMORE REGION ..................... 22 SOURCES OF FINE PARTICLES AND CONSTITUENTS ............................................................... 23 DETERMINATION OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR PRECURSORS .......................................................... 24 THE 2002 BASE-YEAR INVENTORY ........ ..... ............. .. ....... ............ ......... .. ....... ............ 27 3.1 BACKGROUND AND REQUIREMENTS ................................................. ... .. .......... ............... ... .... 27 3.2 TOTAL EMISSIONS BY SOURCE .............................................................................................. 28 

### 3. 2.1 Point Sources .................................. ........................................................... .. ............... 28 3.2.2 Quasi-Point Sources ..... ... .............. .. .............. .... ........................ ...... ........................... 28 3.2.3 Area Sources ..................................... ......... ... ................. ... .......................................... 28 3.2.4 Mobile Sources................................. ... ... .... ...... ...... ........................ ..... ..... ......... ..... ..... 29 3.2.5 Nonroad Sources.............................. .. ........... ................. ................... ............. ... ..... ... .. 31 3.2.6 Biogenic Emissions ................................. ............... ........... .......................... .. .............. 32 4.0 THE 2009 PROJECTED UNCONTROLLED AND CONTROLLED INVENTORIES ... 33 4.1 GROWTH PROJECTION METHODOLOGY.............................................................................. . .. 33 

### 4.1.1 Growth Projection Methodology for Point Sources: EGAS....... ........ .. ............ .......... 33 4.1.2 Growth Projection Methodology for Quasi-Point Sources ........................................ 34 4.1.3 Growth Projection Methodology: Area Sources...............................: ......................... 34 4.1.4 Growth Projection Methodology: NonroadModel Sources.......... .... ......... ....... ...... ... 36 4.1.5 Growth Projection Methodology: Nonroad Sources .................................................. 38 4.1.6 Growth Projection Methodology: OnroadSources.................................................... 38 4.1 .7 

### Biogenic Emission Projections ...... ..... ....... .......... ......... ......... ......... ...... ...................... 38 4.2 OFFSET PROVISIONS, EMISSION REDUCTION CREDITS AND POINT SOURCE GROWTH........... 39

· · - 4.3 ACTUAL VS. ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2009 PROJECTED EMISSIONS INVENTORIES ................... ........ ............. ........ ........................................................................ 414.4 2009 CONTROLLED EMISSIONS FOR ATTAINMENT .................................... . ...... . .................... 41 4.4.1 2009 Projected ControlledInventory: Point Sources.... .. ...... .. .. .. ... .......... .... .......... .... 42 ·· 

### 4.4.2 2009 Projected ControlledInventory: Quasi-Point Sources............ ...... .... .. .. .. .... ...... 42 4.4.3 2009 Projected ControlledInventory: Area Sources.................... ........ ..... .. ............... 42 4.4.4 2009 Projected ControlledInventory: Nonroad Sources .............. .... .. .... .... .. .. .. .... .... . 42 4.4.5 2009 Projected ControlledInventory: OnroadSources................ .... .......... ............... 43 4.5 2009 PROJECTED CONTROLLED INVENTORY- SUMMARY OF EMISSIONS .. .. ......................... 44 5.0 CONTROL MEASURES ................... . ... .... .. . ............................................. .... ... ..... . .. ...... . . .. 45 5.1 CONTROL MEASURES INCLUDED IN 2002 BASELINE SCENARIO .. .......................... .. .... .. .. .. ... 45 

### 5.1.1 Point Source Measures ...................... ... ... ..................... ......... .. .. .. .. ............... .. ............ 45 5. 1.2 Area Source Measures ....... .... ................. .. ....................... .... .. .. .. ....... .. ..... .... .. ............. 47 5. 1.3 On-RoadMobile Measures .. .................................................. ....... ..... ...... ..... ... .. .. ..... .. 50 5.1.4 Non-RoadMeasures............................... ................... .... ... ... .... ............ .... ... ... .. .. ....... .. . 51 5.2 CONTROL MEASURES FOR PM2 5 ATTAINMENT ..................................................................... 53 

### 5.2.1 Point Sources .................... .... ............ .. .... ......... ................ .. .. ... .. ... .. .. .. ... ...... .. .......... .... 53 5.2.2 On-RoadMobile................................................ .. .. ... ... ......... ....... .. ... ...... .. ... .. .. ............ 55 5.2.3 New Non-RoadMeasures .. .............................. ... .... ..... .... ........ ... .. ........... ......... .......... 60 5.3 VOLUNTARY AND INNOVATIVE CONTROL MEASURES .. .. ............... .. ... .. ............ .. .................. 65 

### 5.3.1 Regional Forest Canopy Program: Conservation, Restoration, andExpansion ...... 66 5.3.2 CleanAir Teleworking Initiative .... .... .. ... .................... ....... ... ... .... ...... .. ...... ......... ....... 68 5.3.3 High Electricity DemandDay (HEDD) Initiative ............................................... ....... 72 5.3.4 Emission Reductions from Transportation Measures...................... ..................... .. .... 72 6.0 REASONABLY AVAILABLE CONTROL MEASURE (RACM) ANALYSIS ... .. . ...... .. 79 6.1 ANALYSIS OVERVIEW AND CRITERIA .......................................................................... .. ....... 79 

### 6.1.1 Implementation Date....................................................................... .. ........... ............... 80 6.1.2 Enforceability................... .............................................................................. ........... .. 80 6.1.3 Technological Feasibility......................... .................................................... ... .... .. .. .... 81 6.1.4 Economic Feasibility and Cost Effectiveness ............. .............. ........ ........... .... .. ......... 81 6.1. 5 Substantial and WidespreadAdverse Impacts............ .. ............................... .. .... ......... 81 6.1.6 De Minimis Threshold. ....... ................... .... .................................. ... ...................... ... .... 81 6.1. 7 AdvancingAchievement of Annual 15.0 mg/m3 Standard........................... .. ... ...... .. . 81 6.1. 8 Intensive and Costly Effort......... ...... ..... ...... .. .. ...... .. .... ................ .. ............. .... .. .. ......... 1 6.2 RACM MEASURE ANALYSIS ................................... .. .... .... ... ................... .. .. .. . .. . .......... ......... 82 

### 6.2.1 Analysis Methodology...... .......... .... ... ... .. .. ... ... .. ....... .. .. ............................ ........ ....... .. ... 82 6.2.2 Analysis Results ............... ............. ... .... ..... .... ................... ... ............. .. ...... .. .. .. .. ........... 82 6.3 RACM DETERMINATION ....................................... .. ... .. . .. .......... .. ......................................... 82 6.4 RACT APPLICABILITY ........................................................... . .. . .... . .. .. ........ . . ....... ... .... .... .... .. 82 7.0 MOBILE SOURCE CONFORMITY ...................................................... ........ ............ . .. .. ... 85 7.1 SIGNIFICANCE OF PM2.5 POLLUTANTS AND PRECURSORS FOR THE BALTIMORE, MD N ONATTAINMENT A REA ....................... ..... ............................. .. ..... . ........ ...... .. .. ....... .. .. .... ..... 85 7.2 TRANSPORTATION CONFORMITY ..... .. . .. .............. . ... . ....... . . . . .................... . ................ .. ...... ... . . 85 7. 

### 2.1 Responsibility for Making a Conformity Determination ....................................... ..... 86 7.2.2 Mobile Emissions Budget and the Baltimore Region Transportation Conformity Process.................................................. ...................... ..................... .. ................... ...... 87 7.3 BUDGET LEVEL FOR ON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCE EMISSIONS ............................................. ... 87 

### 7.3.1 Modeling andData ...... .......................... ... ......... ...... .. ...... ............. ........ .. .. ....... ........... 87 BNAA 

### PMz.s SIP 11 3/24/2008

### 7.3.2 Attainment Year Mobile Budgets ................................................... ... .. ........ ............. ... 

### 87 8.0 1997 PM2.s NONA TTAINMENT AREA PLAN COMMITMENTS ...... .. .. ....................... 89 8.1 SCHEDULE OF ADOPTED CONTROL MEASURES .............................................................. ....... 89 8.3 RACT APPLICABILITY.............................................................................. ..... ..... ........... .. .... . 91 8.4 REVISION OF NEW SOURCE REVIEW (NSR) REGULATIONS ........ .. . ... .. ........... ......... ............. . 91 9.0 ATTAINMENT PLAN DEMONSTRATION AND WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE ............... 93 9.1 MODELING STUDY OVERVIEW ... .... ........................................................................ . . .. . . ......... 93 

### 9.I.I Background and Objectives................... ... ..................................... ... ............ .. ... .. ....... 

### 9 3 9.1.2 Relationship to RegionalModeling Protocols.......... ...... .. .......... .............................. .. 

### 95 9.I.3 Conceptual Model............ .. .................... .. ............................................ .. ......... .... ........ 

### 95 9.2 DOMAIN AND DATABASE ISSUES ............... ..... ...... ........... ...................................... .. . ...... .. .... 96 

### 9.2.I Episode Selection............. .......... ................ .. ........ ............ .. ..................... .. .. .... .. .. .. ... ... 

### 96 9.2.2 Size of the Modeling Domain...... .................................... ... ..... ................................ .... 

### 96 9.2.3 Horizontal GridSize ................... ......... .. .................. .. ..... ... .... .. ....... ... ......................... 

### 96 9.2.4 Vertical Resolution.......... ... ......... ........ .... .. .... . ... ..... ........... ......... .. .... ........................... 

### 97 9.2.5 Initial andBoundary Conditions ........................ .... ... ..... ............ .... .. ..... ................. .... 

### 97 9.2.6 Meteorological Model Selection and Corifiguration ............... ...... ... ............ .............. 

### 97 9.2. 7 Emissions Model Selection and Corifiguration........ .. ..... ......... .... ... ....................... ..... 

### 97 9.2.8 Air Quality Model Selection and Corifiguration...... .. .. ................... ...... .................... .. 

### 98 9.2.9 QualityAssurance..................................... ......... .. .................. ....... .. .. ...... .. ....... .. .. ....... 

### 98 9.3 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION ....................................... . . .................................... . ..... 99 

### 9.3.I Overview .. ... .... ........ ... ................................ ................. ... ...... .. ................................... .. 

### 99 9.3.2 Diagnostic and Operational Evaluation.... .... ................... ...... .. .......... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .......... 

### 99 9. 3.3 Summary of Model Performance ...... ...... ... ....... ............... ..................... .................... 

### I08 9.4 ATTAINMENTDEMONSTRATION .......................... . .............................................................. 108 

### 9.4.I Overview .... .. ..................... .. .......................... .................... .. ........ .. .... ........................ 

### I08 9.4.2 ModeledAttainment Test ............................... .............. .. ... ........................................ 

### I09 9.4. 3 UnmonitoredAreaAnalysis.... ........... ... ..... ..... ..... ......... .. .. .. ... ........... ......... ........ ....... 

### II4 9.4.4 LocalAreaAnalysis...... .. ................... ....... ...................... ... .... ................................... 

### II5 9.4. 5 Emissions Inventories ......... ....................... .............. ... ............ .................... .. .. .... ...... 

### II5 9.5 WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE DEMONSTRATION........................................... ...... .. ......................... 115 

### 9.5.I Trend in PM2.s Design Values................ ................. .......... ...... .................. ................ 

### II6 9. 5.

### 2 The Composition of PM2.s........................................ ...... .......... ............. ........ ...... ...... 

### II8 9. 5.3 Review of Literature on PM2 .5................. .. .............. ........ .......... ..... ... ............. .... .. ..... 

### II8 9.5.4 PM2.s Trends Over the Mid-Atlantic Region.............. .. ............ .... .. ...... .......... ........... 

### 119 9. 5. 5 PM2.5 CompositionAs it Relates to Effectiveness of Controls....................... ........... 

### II9 9. 5. 6 Monitoring Data From Surface-BasedSpeciation Sites...... .. .. .............................. ... 

### I20 9.5. 7 CMAQ PM2.s Modeling............................................................. ......... .. ............... .. .... 

### I20 9.6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS OF ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION ...... .... .............. .. . ......... 121 9.7 PROCEDURAL REQUIREMENTS ............................................... ... . . ................................ ....... . 121 

### 9. 7.I Reporting .. .... .... .... ........... ... .............. .. .. ..... ..... ......................... .. ................................ 

### I2I 9. 7.

### 2 DataArchival and Transfer of Modeling Files.. ........................... ............................ 

### I2I 10.0 CONTINGENCY PLAN .......................................... ....................... .. ............. ...... ............. 123 10.1 CONTINGENCY MEASURES FOR THEATTAINMENTDEMONSTRATION ................... ..... ...... ... 123 

### IO.I.I Background..... ....... ..... ......... ................ ..... ............ ..... ..... ...... .. ..... ..... ..................... ... 

### I23 IO.I.2 RequiredReductions...................... .. ......................... ... .............. ..... ..... ...... ............... 

### I23 BNAA PM2.s SIP iii 3/24/2008

### 10.1.3 Identified Contingency Measures .. .. ...... .... .. .. ...... .. .......... .. ... ...................... .... .......... 124

APPENDICES 

### Appendix A -Base Year Emission Inventory Appendix A-1: Base Year Emission Inventory Methodologies Appendix A-2 : Point Source Base Year Inventory Appendix A-3: Quasi-Point Source Base Year Inventory Appendix A-4: Area Source Base Year Inventory Appendix A-5: Mobile Source Base Year Inventory Appendix A-6: Nonroad Source Base Year Inventory Appendix B -Projection Year Methodologies Appendix C- Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) Analysis Appendix C-1: List ofPotential RACM Control Measures & 

### Analysis Appendix C-2: BMC Reduction Measures List & 

### Analysis Appendix D -Mobile Budget Documentation Appendix E- OTC MOU Appendix F - Contingency Synopsis ofthe ASIP Sensitivity Study Appendix G- Attainment Modeling Appendix G-1: Conceptual Model Appendix G-2: Modeling Domain Boundary Appendix G-3: Horizontal Grid Definitions for MM5 and CMAQ Modeling Domain Appendix G-4: Vertical Layer Definitions for MM5 and CMAQ Modeling Domain Appendix G-5: MM5 Model Configuration Appendix G-6: MM5 Model Performance Evaluation Appendix G-7: SMOKE Processing Description and Configuration Appendix G-8: CMAQ Configuration Appendix G-9: CMAQ Model Performance Appendix G-10 : Additional Information on Design Value Calculations Appendix G-11 : Weight ofEvidence Report

BNAA PM2.s SIP IV 

### 3/24/2008INDEX OF TABLES TABLE 2-1: EPA SIP REQUIREMENTS FOR PM POLLUTANTS .... ... . ........ . ..... . ... .. ................... ...... . ..... . .. 25 TABLE 2-2: SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANCE DETERMINATIONS FOR SIP CONTROLS AND MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGETS .... ....... ....... .... ... ... .... . . .. . ... . . . . .. . .. ... . ............................. . .. .. . . . ... . ...... .... .. ....... ............ 26 TABLE 2-3: SUMMARY OF RATIONALE FOR VOC AND NH3 INSIGNIFICANCE DETERMINATIONS FOR SIP CONTROLS .......... . . .......... . ..... . ........ .. .. ... ..... .. .... ... . ....... ... .. ...... ........ .. ... .... ... ......... .... ... .... ............... 26 TABLE 3-1: 2002 BASE-YEAR ANNUAL INVENTORY .................. ... ...... .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .............. ...... ...... . ..... 27 TABLE 4-1: 2002-2009 AREA SOURCE GROWTH FACTORS ... ........ .... .... .. ........ .................. ...... ............ 34 TABLE 4-2: 2009 NONROAD MODEL INPUTS .............. .... .. .......... .. .... .. .... ..... . .. . .............. .. ................ 3 7 TABLE 4.3: EMISSION REDUCTION CREDITS ......... . ....... ... . .... ... .. .. ............ ........ .. ................ .................. 39 TABLE 4-4: 2009 PROJECTED CONTROLLED ANNUAL INVENTORY (TPY) ........................................... 44 TABLE 5-1: MARYLAND HEALTHY AIR ACT ANNUAL NOXEMISSIONS REDUCTIONS (TPY): ........... 54 TABLE 5-2: ON-ROAD MOBILE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS (TPY): ....................................................... 56 TABLE 5-3: OFF-ROAD MOBILE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS (TPY): ...................................................... 61 TABLE 5-4: CLEAN AIR TELEWORKING TIME LINE .............................................................................. 71 TABLE 7-1: 2009 ATTAINMENTMOBILEBUDGETSFOR THE BALTIMORE NONATTAINMENT AREA .... 88 TABLE 8-1: MARYLAND SCHEDULE OF ADOPTED CONTROL MEASURES ............................................. 89 TABLE 8-2: STATIONARY SOURCE PERMITTING REVISIONS ................................................................. 91 TABLE 9-1: BALTIMORE NAA DESIGNATIONS FOR 24-HOUR AND ANNUAL PM2.s STANDARDS ......... 93 TABLE 9-2. EPA PM2.s MODELING PERFORMANCE GOALS .............................................................. 100 TABLE 9-3. VISTAS RPO PM2.s MODELING PERFORMANCE GOALS ............................................... 100 TABLE 9-4 ANNUAL SMAT RESULTS FOR BALTIMORE NAA 2009 BEYOND-ON-THE-WAY CONTROL MEASURES ......................................................................................................................................... 112 TABLE 9-5. 24-HOUR MODELING ATTAINMENT TEST USING EPA SMA T METHODOLOGY 2009 BEYOND-ON-THE-WAY CONTROL MEASURES ............ .... .. .... .. ...... .. .. .. .... .. ...... .......... .... ...... ...... ........ 113 TABLE 10-1: CONTINGENCY REQUIREMENT FOR PM AND PM PRECURSORS ...... .. .. ........... . ....... ....... 123 TABLE 10-2: CONTINGENCY MEASURES FOR 2008 PM2.s ATTAINMENT ...... .. ............ .... ........ .... ....... 124

BNAA PM2.s SIP 

### v 3/24/2008INDEX OF FIGURES FIGURE 1-1: BALTIMORE, MD PM2.5 NON-ATTAINMENT AREA ............ .. .. .... ............... . .. ..... . .. . . .. ........ 3 FIGURE 1-2: BALTIMORE NON-ATTAINMENT AREAPM2.s MONITORS ................................................... 4 FIGURE 1-3: PM2.s EMISSIONS BY SOURCE CATEGORY (2002 & 2009) ..................................... .. .......... 6 FIGURE 1-4: NOx EMISSIONS BY SOURCE CATEGORY (2002 & 2009)................................................... 7 FIGURE 1-5: S02 EMISSIONS BY SOURCE CATEGORY (2002 & 2009) ......... . .......................................... 7 FIGURE 2-1: ATMOSPHERIC CHEMICAL REACTIONS THAT CONTRIBUTE TO PM2.5 ............................. 12 FIGURE 2-2: SEASONAL VARIATION OF PM2.s DURING 2000-2006 IN THE BALTIMORE, MD NONATTAINMENT AREA ............................................... .... ................................................................... . ...... . 13 FIGURE 2-3: SEASONAL VARIATION OF SULFATE PM2.s (ESSEX MONITOR, 200 1-2005) ...................... 14 FIGURE 2-4: SEASONAL VARIATION OF SULFATE PM2.5 (FT. MEADE MONITOR, 2002-2004) ............. 14 FIGURE2-5: SEASONAL VARIATIONOFNITRATEPM2.s (ESSEX MONITOR, 2001-2005) ............... .. .. . .. 15 FIGURE 2-6: SEASONAL VARIATION OF NITRATE PM2.s (FT. MEADE MONITOR, 2002-2004) .............. 16 FIGURE2-7: SEASONAL VARIATIONOFORGANICCARBON(ESSEXMONITOR, 2001-2005) ................. 17 FIGURE 2-8: SEASONAL VARIATION OF ORGANIC CARBON (FT. MEADE MONITOR, 2002-2004) ......... 17 FIGURE 2-9: SEASONAL VARIATION OF AMMONIUM (ESSEX MONITOR, 2001-2005) ............................ 18 FIGURE2-10: SEASONAL VARIATION OF AMMONIUM(FT. MEADE MONITOR, 2002-2004) ............ .. ... 19 FIGURE2-11: DIURNAL PM2.s PATTERN- BALTIMORE NONATTAINMENT AREA .................. .. ............ 20 FIGURE 2-12A: PM FINE BACK TRAJECTORIES ...................................................................................... 21 FIGURE 2-12B: PM FINE BACK TRAJECTORIES ..................... .. ........................................................ .. ..... 21 FIGURE 2-13: ANNUALLY AVERAGED 2001-2003 CONCE NTRATIONS OF PM2.5 CONSTITUENTS FOR BALTIMORE, MD ...................................... .. ................................. . ................................................ .. .... 22 FIGURE 2-14: PM2.5 COMPOSITION DATA FROM THEESSEX, MD MONITOR ...................................... 23 FIGURE2-15: PM2.5 COMPOSITION DATA FROM THEFT. MEADE, MD MONITOR .............................. 24 FIGURE 5.1 AIR QUALITY ACTION GUIDE ............................................................................................ 69 FIGURE 9-1: BALTIMORE NAA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS ............................................................. 94 FIGURE 9-2. LOCATIONS USED FOR THE MODEL EVALUATION ACROSS THE OTR+ REGION: FRM (e, 264), STN (•, 50), AND IMPROVE (.6., 21) ............ .. ....... . ........... .. .. .. .. ... ..... .. ................................ . 102 FIGURE 9-3. COMPOSITE FRM DME SERIES ACROSS THE OTR+ REGION (264 MONITORS) .............. 103 FIGURE 9-4. MFE AND MFB DME SERIES FOR FRM PM2.s ACROSS THE OTR + REGION ................ 103 FIGURE 9-5. MFE BUGLE PLOT FOR FRM PM2.s ACROSS OTR+ REGION ......................................... 104 FIGURE 9-6. MFE BUGLE PLOT FOR S04 ACROSS OTR+ REGION ..................................................... 104 FIGURE 9-7. MFE BUGLE PLOT FOR N03 ACROSS OTR+ REGION .................................................... 105 FIGURE 9-8. MFE BUGLE PLOT FOR NH4ACROSS OTR+ REGION..................................................... 105 FIGURE 9-9. MFE BUGLE PLOTFORECACROSS OTR+ REGION ........................... .. .......................... 106 

### .. . : BNAA PM2.s SIP vi 3/24/2008FIGURE 9-10. 

### MFE B UGLE PLOT FOR OMACRO S 

### OTR+ REGION ...... .. .................. .... ..................... 106 FIGURE 9-11. 

### MFE B UGLE PLOT FOR Son.JCR USTAL ACROS O TR

## +REGIO .... ............... ... ............ 107 FIGURE 

### 9-ll. BALTIMORE NONATTAINMENT AREA PM2.s MONITOR USED fN THE MODE Ll G D EMONSTRATION ......... ........ ......... .. ............ ... .. ...... . ... ............................. . .......................................... 114 FIGURE 9- 12. ANNUAL 

### PM2.sDE JG V ALUES FOR BALTIMORE NONATTAfNMENT AREA FROM 2002- 2006....... ........ ............ .... ..... . .... ... . . ................................ .... ................. .... . . .. ................................ ...... . 1 17 FlGURE 

### 9-13. 24-HOVR

### PM2. 5 DE ION VALUE FOR B ALTrMORE NONATTAINME T AREA FROM 2002

- 2006...... ..... ....................................................................... ...... ........ ... ... . . .......................................... 117

BNAA 

### PM2 .s 

### SIP Vll 3/24/2008

## This Page Left Intentionally Blank

BNAA PM2.s SIP Vlll 3/24/2008

## 3.0 THE 2002 BASE-YEAR INVENTORY 3.1 Background and requirements The 2002 Base-Year Inventory is published in a separate document, "2002 Base Year Emissions Inventory & QNQC Plan Maryland," (June 15, 2006). This document was submitted to EPA Region III. This document was prepared the Maryland Department ofthe Environment. It is available for inspection at the Air and Radiation Management Administration, 1800 Washington Boulevard, Suite 730, Baltimore, Maryland 21230. Relevant portions ofthis document including, source category listings and descriptions, methods and data sources, emission factors, controls, spatial and temporal allocations, and example calculations are included in Appendix Al. The full inventory document titled, 2002 Base-Year Emissions Inventory ofPM2.5 Precursor Emissions, is attached to this SIP document in Appendix A. The emissions inventory covers all Maryland nonattainment areas, Figure 1-1, which are classified as nonattainment areas for particulate matter by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The 2002 emissions inventory is the starting point for calculating the emissions reduction requirement needed to meet the requirements prescribed for nonattainment areas by the Clean Air Act Amendments and EPA. Appendix A (2002 Base Year Emissions Inventory ofPM2.5 Precursor Emissions for the Baltimore, MD Nonattainment Area) ofthe Annual PM2.5 SIP document addresses emissions ofPM2.5- Primary, oxides ofnitrogen (NOx), sulfur dioxide (S02), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH3), and PMlO-Primary on an annual basis. Included in the inventory are anthropogenic (man-made) sources, such as, point, area, non-road and on-road mobile sources and biogenic (naturally occurring) sources ofPM2.5 precursors. The 2002 base-year annual inventories for PM2.5-PRI, NOx, S02, VOC, NH3, and PM1 0-PRI are summarized in Table 3-1.

NH3 Point 183.92 Quasi-Point 0.00 Area 3,553.54 Non-Road 11.25 On-Road 2,460.86 Biogenics 0.00

Total 6,209.57 

### Table 3-1: 2002 Base-Year Annual Inventory (Tons/Year) NOx PM2.s-PRI PMIO-PRI SOx 40,280.02 3,047.60 4,441.99 97,909.52 2,966.26 320.30 421.90 1,965.68 7,372.61 8,460.36 31,108.52 4,962.88 14,077.13 1,525.44 1,586.41 1,202.93 66,229.56 1,080.35 1,522.33 2,161.95

635.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 131,561.14 14,434.05 39,081.15 108,202.96 

### * Small discrepancies may result due to roundmg BNAA PM2.s SIP 27 

## voc Total 3,463.14 149,326.19 416.57 6,090.71 40,654.48 96,112.39 17,521.85 35,925.01 25,823.92 99,278.97 33 ,527.27 34,162.83 121,407.23 420,896.10

3/24/2008

### 3.2 Total Emissions by Source 3.2.1 Point Sources For emissions inventory purposes, point sources are defined as stationary, commercial, or industrial operations that emit more than 10 tons per year (tons/year) ofVOCs or 25 tons/year or more ofNOx or CO. The point source inventory consists ofactual emissions for the base-year 2002 and includes sources within the geographical area ofthe Baltimore Nonattainment Area. For source category listings and descriptions, methods and data sources, emission factors, controls, spatial and temporal allocations, and example calculations please refer to Appendix Al. For Base-Year Emission Inventory data please refer to Appendix A2. 

### 3.2.2 Quasi-Point Sources The Maryland Department ofthe Environment Air and Radiation Management has identified several facilities that due to size and/or function are not considered point sources. These establishments contain a wide variety ofair emission sources, including traditional point sources, on-road mobile sources, off-road mobile sources and area sources. For each particular establishment, the emissions from these sources are totaled under a single point source and summary documents include these "quasi-point" sources as point sources. Quasi-point sources will include all emissions at the facility regardless ofwhether they are classified as point, area, nonroad, or mobile source emissions. These emissions are actual emissions reported for the facilities. The Baltimore Nonattainment Area has the following Quasi-point sources: • Baltimore Washington International Airport (BWI) • Aberdeen Proving Grounds These emissions have been included as Point Source in summary documents. For source category listings and descriptions, methods and data sources, emission factors, controls, spatial and temporal allocations, and example calculations please refer to Appendix Al. For Base-Year Emission Inventory data please refer to Appendix A3. 

### 3.2.3 Area Sources Area sources are sources ofemissions too small to be inventoried individually and which collectively contribute significant emissions. Area sources include smaller stationary point sources not included in the states' point source inventories such as printing establishments, dry cleaners, and auto refinishing companies, as well as non-stationary sources. Area source emissions typically are estimated by multiplying an emission factor by some known indicator ofcollective activity for each source category at the county (or county-equivalent) level. An activity level is any parameter associated with the activity ofa source, such as production rate or fuel consumption that may be correlated with the air pollutant emissions from that source. For example, the total amount ofVOC emissions emitted by commercial aircraft can be calculated by BNAA PM2.s SIP 28 3/24/2008multiplying the number oflanding and takeoffcycles (LTOs) by an EPA-approved emission factor per LTO cycle for each specific aircraft type. Several approaches are available for estimating area source activity levels and emissions. These include apportioning statewide activity totals to the local inventory area and using emissions per employee (or other unit) factors. For example, solvent evaporation from consumer and commercial products such as waxes, aerosol products, and window cleaners cannot be routinely determined for many local sources. The per capita emission factor assumes that emissions in a given area can be reasonably associated with population. This assumption is valid over broad areas for certain activities such as dry cleaning and small degreasing operations. For some other sources an employment based factor is more appropriate as an activity surrogate. For source category listings and descriptions, methods and data sources, emission factors, controls, spatial and temporal allocations, and example calculations please refer to Appendix Al. For Base-Year Emission Inventory data please refer to Appendix A4. 

### 3.2.4 Mobile Sources On-road mobile sources include all vehicles registered to use the public roadways. The predominant emission source in this category is the automobiles, although trucks and buses are also significant sources ofemissions. The computation ofhighway vehicle emissions required two primary entities: a) vehicle emission factors and b) vehicle activity. The Emission factors are generated by using the latest version ofU.S. EPA's emission factor model MOBILE6.2. Vehicle activity (vehicle miles traveled- termed VMT for short) is usually obtained from two sources: a) State Highway Administration (SHA), and b) Baltimore Metropolitan Council (BMC). VMT data from SHA, based on vehicle traffic counts on the roadway system, is mainly used for the rural counties. The BMC-provided transportation modeled link-based data is used in the emission modeling ofthe Baltimore Nonattainment Area as mandated by the CAAA 1990. In a simple modeling scenario, the product ofemission factor and vehicle miles traveled should yield emission levels for that scenario. Proper units and conversion are used to arrive at reasonable emission estimates. In a complex modeling scenario many types ofemissions such as exhaust, evaporative, diurnal, crankcase, refueling, etc., emissions are computed separately and treated with the appropriate activity levels to yield a complex model result. MOBILE6 expects enormous amount oflocal data input such as the fleet characteristics, fleet mileage accrual rates, speed, fuel parameters, inspection and maintenance (liM) program in place, weather data, and so on. In MOBILE6 emission factor model, the total highway vehicle population is characterized by the following 16 composite vehicle type categories: BNAA PMz.s SIP 29 3/24/2008LDV -Light-Duty Vehicles (Passenger Cars) LDTl

- Light-Duty Trucks 1 LDT2

- Light-Duty Trucks 2 LDT3

- Light-Duty Trucks 3 LDT4

- Light-Duty Trucks 4 HDV2B- Class 2b Heavy Duty Vehicles HDV3 -Class 3 Heavy Duty Vehicles HDV4 -Class 4 Heavy Duty Vehicles HDV5 -Class 5 Heavy Duty Vehicles HDV6 -Class 6 Heavy Duty Vehicles HDV7 -Class 7 Heavy Duty Vehicles HDV8A- Class 8a Heavy Duty Vehicles HDV8B- Class 8b Heavy Duty Vehicles HDBS

- School Buses HDBT

- Transit and Urban Buses MC

- Motorcycles These composite vehicle types are further classified into 28 vehicle types - gasoline or diesel vehicles depending on the vehicle types. All motorcycles are gasoline based and transit and urban buses are diesels. School Bus can be either gasoline driven or diesel driven vehicle. MOBILE6 also allows for the modeling ofother fuel type vehicle such as hybrids and alternate fuel vehicles (AFV) as a special case in a complex modeling initiative. MOBILE6 model produces emission factors, for each ofthe 28 vehicle types, and one composite factor for all vehicle types. A post-processing system takes care ofall emission computations ofthe modeling domain by aggregating the emissions from roads/links appropriate to the area and produces meaningful reports by area, by vehicle type and by roadway type. For source category listings and descriptions, methods and data sources, emission factors, controls, spatial and temporal allocations, and example calculations please refer to Appendix A 1. For Base-Year Emission Inventory data please refer to Appendix AS .

BNAA PM2.s SIP 30 3/24/2008 

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### 3.2.5 Nonroad Sources Emissions for all nonroad vehicles and engines except airport (aircraft, ground support equipment (GSE) and, auxiliary power units (APU)), locomotives, and diesel marine vessels were calculated using EPA's NONROAD2005.0.0 (dt. 12/02/2005) model. Since the time it was first issued on 12/02/2005, this model version underwent several corrections. The base year nonroad inventory was created using the version current as of3/21/2006. Emissions from the "nonroad vehicles and engines" category result from the use offuel in a diverse collection ofvehicles and equipment, including vehicles and equipment in the following categories: • Recreational vehicles, such as all-terrain vehicles and off-road motorcycles; • Logging equipment, such as chain saws; • Agricultural equipment, such as tractors; • Construction equipment, such as graders and back hoes; • Industrial equipment, such as fork lifts and sweepers; • Residential and commercial lawn and garden equipment, such as leafand snow blowers. • Aircraft ground support equipment. The nonroad model estimates emissions for each specific type ofnonroad equipment by multiplying the following input data estimates: • Equipment population for base year (or base year population grown to a future year), distributed by age, power, fuel type, and application; • Average load factor expressed as average fraction ofavailable power; • Available power in horsepower; • Activity in hours ofuse per year; and • Emission factor with deterioration and/or new standards. The emissions are then temporally and geographically allocated using appropriate allocation factors. Aircraft (military, commercial, general aviation, and air taxi) and auxiliary power units (APU) operated at airports along with locomotives and diesel marine vessels are also considered nonroad sources and are included in the nonroad category. Baltimore Washington International Airport (BWI) and the Maryland Aviation Administration (MAA) provided all types ofairport emissions for the airport. The Maryland Port Authority provided data for commercial marine vessels entering the Chesapeake Bay. Emissions from locomotives and commercial diesel marine vessels were calculated my MDE engineers. For source category listings and descriptions, methods and data sources, emission factors, controls, spatial and temporal allocations, and example calculations please refer to Appendix Al. For Base-Year Emission Inventory data please refer to Appendix A6.

BNAA PM2.s SIP 31 3/24/2008

### 3.2.6 Biogenic Emissions An important component ofthe inventory is biogenic emissions. Biogenic emissions are those resulting from natural sources. Biogenic emissions are primarily VOCs that are released from vegetation throughout the day. Biogenic emissions ofNOx include lightning and forest fires. EPA used a biogenic computer model (BEIS3 .12) to estimate biogenic emissions for each county in the country for all twelve months ofthe year 2002. Emissions data for Baltimore Nonattainment area was acquired from the EPA website (ftp://ftp.epa.gov/Emislnventory/2002finalnei!biogenic _sector_ datal). EPA has recommended that states use these emissions in case they do not have their own estimated biogenic emissions. Baltimore, MD particulate matter non-attainment area decided to use the inventories provided by the EPA.



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