### Final Section 2

- Page 1 of 4

**SECTION 2 EMISSIONS INVENTORIES**  **2.1 Purpose of Section**  The CAA and EPA regulations require that states compile estimates of certain air pollutants emitted from sources within their borders. St ates with moderate or above ozone nonattainment areas mus t prepare emission inventories of VOCs, NOx and CO every three y ears and must include the latest inventory of these pollutants in their attainment demonstration SIP. The Massachusetts 2002 Base Year Emissions Inventory

– September 2007 (MA 2002 Base Year Inventory , Appendix 2A to this document) satisfies the inventory requirements for the EMA and WMA ozone nonattainment areas. This Section provides a brief summary of the Mass 2002 Base Year Inventory

results. For the purposes of showing the overall downwar d trend of emissions in Massachusetts, this Section also provides a summary of the 2008 projections developed to demonstrate RFP (See Section 4, Reasonable Further Progress ), the 2009 projections used in the ozone attainment modeling (See Section 5, Attain ment Demonstration ) and summary of projected emissions in 2012. **2.2 2002 Base Year Inventory Pollutants**  The MA 2002 Base Year Inventory estimates in

- state emissions of the following pollutants as of 2002: VOCs, NOx, CO, particulate matter (PM 1 

### ), ammonia (NH 3 

### ) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 

### ). In addition to meeting the inventory requirements for ozone nonattainment areas, the inventory meets the requirements of E PA’s 2002 Consolidated Emissions Reporting Rule (CERR). The CERR requires that, irrespective of a state’s NAAQS attainment status, every three ye ars it must develop and update a s ingle, statewide annual inventory of the following pollutants: VOCs, NOx, CO, PM , 

### NH 3 

### and SO 2 

### . The MA 2002 Base Year Inventory estimates annual emissions of pollutants from all source sectors in the state, as required b y the CERR. B ecause high ozone concentrations are generall y associated with warmer weather and emissions may vary seasonally , the inventory also includes emissions estimates of VOCs, NOx, and CO on a ton per summer day

(TPSD) basis. A June 2006 version of the MA 2002 Base Year Inventory was available for informal public review on MassDEP’s website from July 2006 through October 2007. The September 2007 version (Appendix 2A) makes minor revisions to the Introduction of the June 2006 version, (Section 1), and includes methodology changes for Section 3.3
- 2, Surface Cleaning/Degreasing and Section 3.3

- 7, Cutback and Emulsified Asphalt Paving. It also adds a section estimating emissions from Adhesives and Sealant s . The complete MA 2002 Base Year Inventory

- September 2007 is part of this Massachusetts 8

- Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration SIP; it is available on MassDEP’s web site at: http://mass.gov/dep/air/priorities/aqdata.htm
. It contains extensive

1 The inventory includes estimates of both PM 10 and PM 2.5
. PM 10 refers to particles equal to or smaller than 10 micrometers in diameter. PM 2.5 refers to particles equal to or smaller than 2.5 micrometers in diameter.

### Final Section 2

- Page 2 of 4

narrative explaining the methodology for development of the inventory and the extensive data files supporting the emissio n estimates.
**2.3 2008 and 2009 Projected Inventories**  In addition to calculating emissions in the base year, nonattainment areas must also estimate emissions in future milestone y ears. For purposes of demonstrating RFP towards attainment, areas must pr oject emissions for the RFP milestone year
– 2008 for EMA and WMA. EPA’s Phase 2 Rule established 2002 as the base ye ar for demonstrating compliance with the 8

- hour ozone standard RFP requirements. For purposes of RFP, areas may take credit for reductions that occur subsequent to 2002, but before their RFP milestone year. (The methodology for developing the 2008 projections is discussed in Section 4, Reasonable Further Progress.) To demonstrate attainment, areas must project emissions in the attainment ye ar for use in their modeled attainment demonstration. For attainment demonstration purposes, EPA recommended, but did not require, that states use 2002 as the baseline year for their attainment demonstration modeling. MassDEP is using 2002 as its base yea r for the 2009 regional attainment modeling, as discussed in Section 5, Attainment Demonstration
. (The methodology for developing the 2009 projections is also discussed in Section 5.) **2.4 2012 Projected Inventory**  Massachusetts is not required to estimate emi ssions in years subsequent to its 2009 attainment y ear for 8

- hour ozone purposes. However, to comply with the requirements of an EPA rule related to Regional Haze, 2 , 

### t

he Mid

- Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union (MANE

- VU) 3 

### developed emissions estimates for 2012 for all states in the MANE

- VU region, including Massachusetts. Because these 2012 estimates 4 

### are available, MassDEP has included them in Table 2.1 below in order to demonstrate the continued downward trend in Massachusetts’ emissions.
**2.5 Emissions**  **Inventory Trends** Table EI

- 1 provides the statewide ozone season 2002 MA Base Year I nventory emissions of VOC and NOx by

source sector and the projected emissions for each sector in 2008, 2009 and 2012. Figures 2

- 1 and 2

- 2 illustrate the reductions of VO Cs and NOx that are projected to take place in Massachusetts by

the 2008 milestone year for RFP, by the 2009 attainment demonstration milestone ye ar, and by

2012. Note that because of different methods use to project emissions from the various
2 EPA’s Regional Haze Rule requires that states address regional haze and visibility impairment in Class 1 Federal areas (certain parks and wilderness areas). This is a separate EPA rule unrelated to ozone attainment. 3 The Mid

- Atlantic and Northeaster n states, tribes, and federal agencies formed MANE
- VU to coordinate regional haze planning activities for the region. 4 Mid

- Atlantic Regional Air Management Association, Development of Emission Projections for 2009, 2012 and 2018 for NonEGU Point, Area, an d Nonroad Sources in the MANE

- VU Region, Final Report , February 2007. www.marama.org/visibility/Inventory%20Summary/FutureEmissionsInventory.htm

### Final Section 2

- Page 3 of 4

sectors in the three projection years, estimates are only roughly comparable. As noted above, the methods used to develop the 2008 and 2009 are discussed in Sections 4 and 5.
**Table EI -**  **1 MA 2002 Emissions and Projections for 2008, 2009** and 2012  ** STA** **TEW IDE**  **2 002 Base** 

**Year VOC VOC 2008**  **VOC 2009 VOC 2012**  **2002 Base Year NOx**  **NOx 2008 NOx 2009**  **NOx 2012** Tons per summer day **Projected Projected**  **Projected Projected**  **Projected Projected**  Point EGU Point Non
- EGU POINT TOTAL 1.5 14.5 16.0 1.4

15.0 16.4 1.4

15.2 16.6 1.5 16.5

18.0 82.8

46.8 129.6 37.3 48.4 85.8 56.0 47.7 103.7 56.0

49.5 105.5 AREA 327.6 332.4 277.9 268.3 39.1 44.0 44.5 45.3 ON
- ROA D*** 151.9 80.1 74.2 56.2 453.1 222.6 202.7 132.4 OFF
- ROAD 223.8 178.9 171.6 159.8 144.6 128.4 124.3 105.8 **TOTA L**  **719.3 607.7**  **540.3 502.3**  **766.3 480.7**  **475.2 389.0** 

** As discussed in Section 5, Attainment Demonstration , 2009 projections used in attainment modeling are based on: 1) Appendix 5L

– Development of Emission Projections for NonEGU Point, Area and Nonroad Sources in the MANE

- VU Region , prepared by MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc., February 2007; 2) Mobile Source emissions developed by NESCAUM, with Mobile 6.2 inputs provided by the states; and 3) Integrated Planning Model (IPM) runs for EGU emissions (see List of References

– Reference #8 re: IPM runs). 2012 EGU projections are also based on IPM runs. IPM projections are for the May
- September ozone season. MassDEP has derived a tons per summer day estimate from the IPM ozone season estimate (ozone season emissions/153 days.) *** On

- Road Mobile projections are based on the estimates developed for the 2008 and 2009 Conformity Budgets (described in Section 9, Transportation Conformity). For 2012 , MassDEP extrapolated from the 2009 projections. File: rfp

- 2002

- 12

- trends nov/21/2007 

### By 2008, MassDEP estimates that statewide emissions of VOCs during the summer ozone season (May

– September) will decrease from 2002 levels by 16% and of NOx by 37%. As discussed in Section 4, Reasonable Further Progress , EMA and WMA are able to demonstrate that reductions of VOC and NOx by

2008 in each area will substantially exceed the require d 15% reduction needed to demonstrate RFP toward attainment. By 2009, MassDEP estimates that statewide emissions of VOCs during the summer ozone season will decrease from 2002 levels by 25% and of NOx by

38%. These reductions are the result of both exi sting and new Massachusetts and federal control measures. As discussed in Section 3, Control Measures, and Section 5, Attainment Demonstration , the 2009 projected emissions inventory5 

### used in the OTC modeling process incorporates these anticipated reductio ns in Massachusetts. By 2012, MassDEP estimates that statewide emissions of VOCs will decrease from 2002 levels by 30% and of NOx by

49%. These reductions will result from state and federal control measures already in effect and taken into account in th e 2009 attainment demonstration. Additional reductions
5 It shoul d be noted that the inventory data used in the attainment modeling is based on annual emissions (as discussed in Section 5), rather than summer ozone season emissions. Therefore, percentage reductions that are cited in Section 5 may differ from the estimates provided in this Section.

### Final Section 2

- Page 4 of 4

will continue to accrue from these measures and ensure that ozone concentrations will continue to decrease in years subsequent to the 2009 attainment demonstration y ear.

0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 **T o**  **n s**  **p e**  **r S**  **u m**  **m e**  **r D**  **a y** 

2002 Actual 2008 -16% 2009 -25% 2012 - 30% **Projected % VOC Reductions from 2002 Figure 2.1 Projected Anthropogenic VOC Emission Trends for**  **MA**

Off-Road On-Road Area Point

0. 0 100. 0 200. 0 300. 0 400. 0 500. 0 600. 0 700. 0 800. 0 **T o**  **n s**  **p e**  **r S**  **u m**  **m e**  **r D**  **a y**  2002

Act ual 2008

-3 7% 2009

-3 8% 2012

-4 9% **Pr oj**  **ec te**  **d %**

**N Ox**  **R ed**  **uc ti**  **ons f**  **ro m**  **2002 Fi**  **gure 2**  **.2 Pr** **oj ec**  **te d**  **An th**  **ropoge ni**  **c NO**  **x Em**  **is si**  **on Tre**  **nds f**  **or MA** 

Off- Ro ad On-R oa d Area Poi nt