A TTACHMENT G

DEVELOPMENT OF AIR E MISSIONS INVENTORIES FOR NONROAD MODEL

C ATEGORY MOBILE SOURC ES (TASK 3)

## Development of Air

Emissions Inventories for

NONROAD Model Category

Mobile Sources (Task 3)

Final Report

TCEQ Contract No. 582

- 15

- 50416

Work Order No. 582

- 15

- 51606

- 03 Project No. 2015

- 08

Task 3

Prepared for:

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality

Air Quality Division

Prepared by:

Eastern Research Group, Inc.

March 31, 2015ERG No. 0345.00.003

TCEQ Contract No. 582- 15 -50416 Work Order No. 582- 15 -51606-03 

### Project No. 2015- 08



## Development of Air Emissions Inventories for NONROAD Model

Category Mobile Sources (Task 3)

TCEQ Contract No. 582- 15 -50416 Work Order No. 582- 15 -51606- 03 Project No. 2015- 08



### Prepared by:

Eastern Research Group, Inc. 3508 Far West Blvd., Suite 210
Austin, TX 78731

Prepared for:

Anusuya Iyer Texas Commission on Environmental Quality

Emissions Assessment Section Bldg. E, Room 341S 12100 Park 35 Circle
Austin, TX 78753

March 31, 2015

### i LIST OF ACRONYMS

AACOG Alamo Area Council of Governments

CNG Compressed Natural Gas

CO Carbon Monoxide

CO 2 

### Carbon Dioxide

DCE Diesel Construction Equipment

DFW Dallas

- Fort Worth

EDA Equipment Data Associates

EPA Environmental Protection Agency

ERG Eastern Research Group

HGB Houston

- Galveston

- Brazoria

HP Horsepower

LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas

MHC McGraw Hill Corporation

NCDC National Climatic Data Center

NH 3 

### Ammonia

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NO X 

### Oxides of Nitrogen

PM 10 

### Particulate Matter < 10 microns in diameter

PM 2.5 

### Particulate Matter < 2.5 microns in diameter

REMI Regional Economic Models, Inc.

RFG Reformulated Gasoline

RTF Rough Terrain Forklift

SCC Source Classification Code

SIP State Implementation Plan

SIP Spark Ignition

SO 2 

### Sulfur Dioxide

TCEQ Texas Commission on Environmental Quality

TexN Texas NONROAD Model

TPD Tons Per Day

TWC Three

- way Catalyst

TX Texas

TxDOT Texas Department of Transportation

TxLED Texas Low Emission Diesel

US EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency

VOC Volatile Organic Compounds

### ii TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction

................................ ................................ ................................ ....................... 1

2.0 Input Data Sources

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 1

2.1 Equipment Population, Allocation, and Activity Data

................................ ......... 2

2.2 Diesel Construction Equipment Population Growth Surrogates

.......................... 9

2.3 Meteorological Data

................................ ................................ ............................ 10

2.4 Fuel Property Data

................................ ................................ .............................. 10

2.5 Emission Factors and Control Phase

- In

................................ .............................. 11

2.6 Post Processing Adjustments and Additional Controls

................................ ...... 11

3.0 Emissions Estimation

................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 11

3.1 Controlled Emissions Estimates

................................ ................................ ......... 12

3.2 Uncontrolled Emissions Estimates

................................ ................................ ..... 14

3.3 Trends

................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 16

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Sources of Equipment Population Data

................................ ................................ 2 Table 2. Spatial Allocation Surrogates for Diesel Construction Equipment

..................... 4 Table 3. Sources of Geographic Allocation Data (Non

- DCE)

................................ ............ 5 Table 4. Sources of Equipment Activity Data

................................ ................................ .... 6
Table 5. Activity Surrogates for Construction Equipment

................................ ................ 7 Table 6. Sources of Temporal Allocation Factors

................................ .............................. 8
Table 7. DCE Growth Surrogates

................................ ................................ ........................ 9

Table 8. NO X 

### Controlled Emission Estimates

– DFW 4

- County Area (Tons Per Day)

.. 12 Table 9. VOC Controlled Emission Estimates

– DFW 4

- County Area (Tons Per Day)

.. 12

Table 10. NO X 

### Controlled Emission Estimates

– DFW 9

- County Area (Tons Per Day)

. 13

Table 11. VOC Controlled Emission Estimates

– DFW 9

- County Area (Tons Per Day)

. 13

Table 12. NO X 

### Controlled Emission Estimates

– HGB Area (Tons Per Day)

.................. 13 Table 13. VOC Controlled Emission Estimates

– HGB Area (Tons Per Day)

................. 14 Table 14. NO X 

### Uncontrolled Emission Estimates

– DFW 4

- County Area (Tons

Per Day)

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 14

Ta ble 15. VOC Uncontrolled Emission Estimates

– DFW 4

- County Area (Tons

Per Day)

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 14

Table 16. NO X 

### Uncontrolled Emission Estimates

– DFW 9

- County Area (Tons

Per Day)

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 15

### iii

Table 17. VOC Uncontrolled Emission Estimates

– DFW 9

- Cou nty Area (Tons

Per Day)

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 15

Table 18. NO X 

### Uncontrolled Emission Estimates

– HGB Area (Tons Per Day)

............. 15 Table 19. VOC Uncontrolled Emission Estimates

– HGB Area (Tons Per Day)

............. 16

List of Figures

Figure 1. DFW Controlled Emissions Trends (NO X 

### ) (Tons Per Day)

.............................. 16
Figure 2. DFW Controlled Emissions Trends (VOC) (Tons Per Day)

.............................. 17 Figure 3. HGB Controlled Emissions Trends (NO X 

### ) (Tons Per Day)

............................... 17 Figure 4. HGB Controlled Emissions Trends (VOC) (Tons Per Day)

............................. 18

### 1



## 1.0 Introduction

The purpose of Task 3 of this Work Order was to develop a set of emissions inventories

for all NONROAD model category mobile sources for selected years, estimating both

controlled and uncontrolled emissions, for the Dallas

- Fort Worth nine

- county and

Housto n

- Galveston

- Brazoria eight

- county 1997 eight

- hour ozone nonattainment areas.

The TexN model is a tool for developing emissions estimates for nonroad mobile sources

in Texas for the mobile source categories under the United States Environmental

Protection A

gency’s (EPA) NONROAD model. TexN has a user

- friendly graphical user

interface and stores data in a MySQL database. TexN executes EPA’s NONROAD2008a

model and allows TCEQ staff to replace EPA default data with local specific data.

Currently, the TexN model is used by TCEQ staff, local air quality planning agencies,

and other nonroad mobile stakeholders in order to facilitate the use of locally developed

activity and population data for nonroad mobile sources, and to standard ize the

emissions estimation methodologies among the different submitting agencies in Texas.

The TCEQ supplies all interested parties with the latest model, which reflects TCEQ

updates to specific data, and coordinates the integration of all local changes . The

emissions estimates developed using this integrated model are used for state
implementation plan modeling efforts, the EPA’s reporting requirements, trends

analyses, and air quality modeling purposes.

Using the latest version of the Texas NONROAD (T exN) model 1 

### , which incorporates all

of the latest available data updates, ERG developed both controlled and uncontrolled

average summer weekday emissions for VOC and NOX for the analysis years 2012, 2014,

2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 for the DFW nine

- c ounty and HGB eight

- county 1997 eight

- hour ozone nonattainment areas.

This report presents the summaries of the emissions modeling results and provides a

very brief summary from where each of the critical model inputs were derived from

. Please note that T CEQ has a number of reports that have been generated over the

evolution of the TexN model that go into greater detail about the development of each of

the model inputs and subsequent data updates.



## 2.0 Input Data Sources

The following sections are meant only to provide a very brief summary of where the

TexN inputs were derived from. Additional detail may be found in the numerous

reports for studies conducted by TCEQ throughout the life of TexN.

1 TexN version 1.7.1

### 2

2.1 Equipment Population, Allocation, and Activity Data 2



### The TCEQ and o thers have conducted several studies over the years to collect region

specific population and activity data for selected non

- road engine categories, in order to

improve upon NONROAD default estimates. Working with TCEQ staff, ERG compiled a

comprehensive list of the most recent data developed for different equipment types and

regions of the State for inclusion in the TexN model. The sources of the data for each

equipment type and region are presented in Tables 1

- 6 below. The methods used to

estimate eq uipment populations and activity levels can be quite complex; in depth

discussions of the various methodologies used are provided in the referenced studies.

Table 1 . Sources of Equipment Population Data

Equipment Types Region Data Source

Diesel Construction Equipment > 25 hp Dallas

- Fort Worth (DFW) 9

- county

nonattainment

area 3 Eastern Research Group, Ozone Science

and Air Modeling Research Project H43T163: Diesel Construction Equipment Activity and Emissions Estimates for the Dallas/Ft. Worth Region, prepared for The Houston Advanced Research Center, August 31,

2005 Diesel Construction Equipment > 25 hp, except

HGB 4 cranes Statewide excluding 9

- county

DFW area Eastern Research Group, Nonroad

Ammonia Emissions Inventory Development, prepa red for Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, November 24, 2006 Mining and Quarry , Special Trades, Scrap and Recycling, Utility, Rough Terrain Forklifts (RTFs), and Skid

Steer Loaders Diesel Construction Equipment Statewide Eastern Research Group, Up date of Diesel Construction Equipment

Emissions Estimates for the State of Texas, Prepared for TCEQ, August 31,

2008.

Mining and Quarry Diesel Construction Equipment Alamo Area

Council of

Governments area AACOG Chapter 2, Table 2

- 27, 2005

Non

- road Emissions Inventory

2 Information taken from TexN User’s Guide unless otherwise noted. Eastern Research Group, Texas NONROAD
(TexN) Model Version 1.0 User’s Guide, Work Order No. 582

- 7

- 84003

- FY

- 08

- 09, August 18, 2008.

3 Includes Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Johnson, Kaufman , Parker, Rockwall, and Tarrant Counties.

4 Includes Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, and Waller Counties.

### 3

Equipment Types Region Data Source Heavy Highway Diesel Construction Equipment Statewide Eastern Research Group, U pdate of DCE

Emission Estimate s for the State of

Texas Phase I and Phase II

, July 31,2009



### and

Eastern Research Group, Update of
Heavy

- Highway Portion of Diesel Construction Equipment Inventory Using New Data Sources, prepared for TCEQ, July 15, 2014.

Diesel Cranes Houston

Galveston

Brazoria (HGB)

nonattainment

area Eastern Research Group, Nonroad

Mobile Source Emissions Inventory Development for the Houst on

Galveston

- Brazoria Area, submitted to

the Houston

- Galveston Area Council, July 28, 2006

LPG Forklifts DFW 9

- county
area and HGB

nonattainment

areas Eastern Research Group, Data

Collection, Sampling and Emissions Inventory Preparation Plan for Selected Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Phase II, Final Report, prepared for the

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, August 31, 2005

Terminal Tractors and Transportation Refrigeration

Units DFW 9

- county

nonattainment

area Eastern Research Group, Data

Collection, Sampling and Emissions Inventory Preparation Plan for Selected Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Phase II, Final Report, prepared for the

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, August 31, 2005 Transportation Refrigeration

Units HGB

nona ttainment

area Eastern Research Group, Nonroad

Mobile Source Emissions Inventory Development for the Houston

Galveston

- Brazoria Area, submitted to

the Houston

- Galveston Area Council, July 28, 2006

Commercial Lawn and

Garden Statewide Eastern Research Grou p, Development

of Commercial Lawn and Garden

Emissions Estimates for the State of Texas and Selected Metropolitan Areas, prepared for Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, November 24,

2003 Recreational Marine Statewide (except
HGB area) Eastern Rese arch Group, Recreational

Marine Emissions Inventory, prepared

for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, August 28, 2002

### 4

Equipment Types Region Data Source

Recreational Marine HGB

nonattainment

area E.H. Pechan & Associates, Development

of 2007 Recreational Marine Emissions Inventory: Spatial and Temporal

Allocation In the Houston

- Galveston

Brazoria 8

- County Area, 2008 5 Agricultural Equipment Statewide E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. All remaining equipment

–

see below See below NONROAD defaults

- User’s Guide for the Final NONROAD2005 Model,

EPA420

- R

- 05

- 013, December 2005



### Equipment population estimates were taken from NONROAD defaults for the following

equipment categories.

 Commercial

– all equipment/fuel types

 Logging

– all equipment/fuel types

 Railroad

– all equipment/fuel types

 Recreational vehicles

– all equipment/fuel types

 Residential lawn and garden

– all equipment/fuel types

 Industrial

– all equipment/fuel types excluding LPG forklifts in DFW and

HGB, Transportation Refrigeration Units and Terminal Tractors in DFW

 Construction and Mining

– all gasoline, LPG, CNG

 Construction and Mining

– diesel < 25 hp

 Construction and Mining

– diesel > 25 hp:

— Tampers/Rammers

— Plate Compactors

— Signal Boards/Light Plants

— Concrete/Industrial Saws

— Crushing/Processing Equipment

— Cement/Mortar Mixers

— Dumpers/Tenders

— Off

- Highway Tractors

— Other Construction Equipment

Table 2 . Spatial Allocation Surrogates for Diesel Construction Equipment

Sector Surrogate Agricultural Dollar value outputs from Texas Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) model* Boring and Drilling Equipment EDA data and dollar value outputs from TX REMI

model* Brick and Stone Operations Dollar value outputs from TX REMI model* City and County Road Constructi on Project Dollar Value from Reed Construction Data

5 E.H. Pechan & Associates, Development of 2007 Recreational Marine Emissions Inventory: Spatial and Temporal

A llocation in the Houston

- Galveston

- Brazoria 8

- County Area, 2008.

### 5

Sector Surrogate

Commercial Construction Building footprint data from McGraw Hill Corporation (MHC) Concrete Operations Dollar value outputs from TX REMI model*
County

- Owned Construction Equipment County level census projections

Cranes EDA data and dollar value outputs from TX REMI

model* Heavy Highway Construction Project lane

- mile data by county from TxDOT Landfill Operations Landfill disposal volumes from TCEQ Landscaping Activities Dollar value outputs from TX REMI model* Manufacturing Operations Dollar value outputs from TX REMI model* Mining and Quarry Operations Millio n Tons of Coal Production and Annual non

office employee hours respectively (2007) 6 Municipal

- Owned Construction Equipment County level cen sus projections

Transportation Sales/Services Dollar value outputs from TX REMI model*

Residential Construction County

- level housing permit data from the Texas A&M Real Estate Center for 1980 through 2013;
County

- level census projections from the Texas

S tate Data Center for 2014 through 2050; Housing start for the southern region of the country from the U.S. Census Bureau prior to 1980 Rough Terrain Forklifts , Special Trades Construction, and Trenchers 2007 Economy.com 6

Scrap/Recycling Operations USA Data© (2007) 6

Skid Steer Loaders EDA data and dollar value outputs from TX REMI

model* TxDOT Construction Equipment None

– TxDOT provided complete county

- level population data Utility Construction Project Dollar value from Reed Construction Data

and MHC 

### * State level extrapolation and county allocation using 9

- county DFW population as

basis.

Table 3 . Sources of Geographic Allocation Data (Non

- DCE)

Equipment Types Region Data Source

LPG Forklifts 9

- county DFW area

and HGB

nonattainment

areas Eastern Research Group, Data Collection,

Sampling and Emissions Inventory Preparation

Plan for Selected Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Phase II, Final Report, prepared for

the Texas Commission on Environmenta l Quality, August 31, 2005

6 Eastern Research Group, Update of Diesel Construction Equipment Emissions Estimates for the State of Texas,
Prepared for TCEQ, August 31, 2008.

### 6

Equipment Types Region Data Source

Terminal Tractors

and Transportation Refrigeration Units 9

- county DFW

nonattainment area Eastern Research Group, Data Collection,

Sampling and Emissions Inventory Preparation

Plan for Selected Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Phase II, Final Report, prepared for

the Texas Commission on Environment al Quality, August 31, 2005
Transportation Refrigeration Units HGB

nonattainment area Eastern Research Group, Nonroad Mobile

Source Emissions Inventory Development for

the Houston

- Galveston

- Brazoria Area,

submitted to the Houston

- Galveston Area Council, July 28, 2006

Commercial Lawn

and Garden Statewide Eastern Research Group, Development of

Commercial Lawn and Garden Emissions

Estimates for the State of Texas and Selected Metropolitan Areas, prepared for Texas

Commission on Envir onmental Quality, November 24, 2003

Recreational Marine Statewide Eastern Research Group, Recreational Marine Emissions Inventory, prepared for the Texas

Commission on Environment al Quality, August

28, 2002 All remaining equipment

– see below See below N ONROAD defaults

- User’s Guide for the Final NONROAD2005 Model, EP A420

- R

- 05

- 013, December 2005



### Geographic allocation surrogates were taken from NONROAD defaults for the following

equipment categories.

 Agricultural

– all equipment

 Commercial

– all equipment

 Logging

– all equipment

 Railroad

– all equipment

 Recreational vehicles

– all equipment

 Residential lawn and garden

– all equipment

 Industrial

– all equipment/fuel types excluding LPG forklifts in DFW and HGB, TRUs and Terminal Tractors in DFW

Ta ble 4 . Sources of Equipment Activity Data

Equipment Types Region Data Source

Diesel Cranes HGB

nonattainment

area Eastern Research Group, Nonroad Mobile

Source Emissions Inventory Development for

the Houston

- Galveston

- Brazoria Area,

submitted to the Hous ton

- Galveston Area Council, July 28, 2006

### 7

Equipment Types Region Data Source

Diesel Construction Equipment > 25 hp 9

- county DFW

nonattainment

area Eastern Research Group, Ozone Science and Air

Modeling Research Project H43T163: Diesel Construction Equipment Activity and Emissions Estimates for the Dallas/Ft. Worth Region, prepared for The Houston Advanced Rese arch
Center, August 31, 2005

Diesel Construction Equipment > 25 hp Remainder of
State, except HGB

cranes Eastern Research Group, Nonroad Ammonia

Emissions Inventory Developme nt, prepared for Texas Commission on Environmental Qualit y, November 24, 2006

LPG Forklifts 9

- county DFW and

HGB

nonattainment

areas Eastern Research Group, Data Collection,

Sampling and Emissions Inventory Preparation

Plan for Selected Commercial and Ind ustrial Equipment: Phase II, Final Report, prepared for

the Texas Commission on Environment al Quality, August 31, 2005

Terminal Tractors and Transportation Refrigeration Units 9

- county DFW

nonattainment

area Eastern Research Group, Data Collection,

Sampli ng and Emissions Inventory Preparation

Plan for Selected Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Phase II, Final Report, prepared for

the Texas Commission on Environment al Quality, August 31, 2005
Transportation Refrigeration Units HGB

nonattainment

area Eastern Research Group, Nonroad Mobile

Source Emissions Inventory Development for

the Houston

- Galveston

- Brazoria Area,

submitted to the Houston

- Galveston Area Council, July 28, 2006

Commercial Lawn

and Garden Statewide Eastern Research Group, Development of

Commercial Lawn and Garden Emissions

Estimates for the State of Texas and Selected Metropolitan Areas, prepared for Texas

Commission on Environmental Quality, November 24, 2003 All remaining equipment

– see equipment population list above See equipment population list

above NONROAD defaults

- User’s Guide for the Final

NONROAD2005 Model, EP A420

- R

- 05

- 013, December 2005



### Table 5 . Activity Surrogates for Construction Equipment

Sector Primary Estimation Method Agricultural Industry expert profiles Boring and Drilling Equipment Industry expert profiles Brick and Stone Operations Industry expert profiles City and County Road Construction Reed Construction profile

Commercial Construction Square feet of installed building space from

MHC

Concrete Operations Industry expert profiles

County

- Owned Construction Equipment Survey findings from HARC study

### 8

Sector Primary Estimation Method

Cranes Industry expert profiles Heavy Highway Construction Survey findings from H

- GAC study Landfill Operations Survey profile from TCEQ study Landscaping Activities Industry expert profiles Manufacturing Operations Industry expert profiles Municipal

- Owned Construction Equipment Survey findings from HARC study Transportation Sales/Services Industry expert profiles

Residential Construction Sin gle family housing construction profile Rough Terrain Forklifts Industry expert profiles Scrap/Recycling Operations Industry expert profiles

Skid Steer Loaders Industry expert profiles Special Trades Construction Industry expert profiles

Trenchers Industry expert profiles
TxDOT Construction Equipment Engine clock hours provided by TxDOT Utility Construction Linear feet installed from Reed Construction

Data



### Table 6 . Sources of Temporal Allocation Factors

Equipment
Types Region Data Source

Diesel Construction Equipment > 25 hp 9

- county DFW

nonattainment

area Eastern Research Group, Ozone Science and Air

Modeling Research Project H43T163: Diesel Construction Equipment Activity and Emissions Estimates for the Dallas/Ft. Worth Region, prepared for The Houston Advanced Research
Center, August 3 1, 2005 Diesel Construction Equipment > 25 hp Statewide

excluding 9

- county

DFW area Eastern Research Group, Nonroad Ammonia

Emissions Inventory Development, prepared for

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, November 24, 2006

LPG Forklifts 9

- county DFW and

HGB

nonattainment

areas Eastern Research Group, Data Collection,

Sampling and Emissions Inventory Preparation

Plan for Selected Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Phase II, Final Report, prepared for

the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality,
August 31, 2005 All remaining equipment

– see equipment population list

above See equipment

population list

above NONROAD defaults

- User’s Guide for the Final

NONROAD2005 Model, EP A420

- R

- 05

- 013, Decembe r 2005

### 9

2.2 Diesel Construction Equipment Population Growth Surrogates 7



### The TexN model contains 25 distinct “sectors” with distinct equipment population and

activity profiles. Diesel construction equipment (DCE) comprises most of these
“sectors”. Two “sectors” within TexN, being miscellaneous equipment having less than

25 horsepower and all non

- DCE, use the default profiles from EPA’s NONROAD model.

The remaining 23 of these sectors represent independent DCE profiles developed

specifically for the TCEQ and the TexN model under numerous projects funded by the

TCEQ. The TCEQ has focu sed on DCE specifically, as DCE has the single largest impact

on total NOx emissions from all nonroad mobile equipment represented within the

model, which is a driving precursor to ozone formation. Table 7 presents a summary of

the growth surrogates appli ed to a 2012 base

- year population to forecast equipment

population for each of the DCE subsectors.

Table 7 . DCE Growth Surrogates

Non

- DCE* NONROAD default

DCE

- Agricultural Activities 2012 Texas Agricultural Census

DCE

– Boring & Drilling Equipment Economy.com

DCE

– Brick & Stone Operations Economy.com

DCE

– City and County Road

Construction Texas State Data Center county

- level census population

DCE

– Commercial Construction Economy.com

DCE

– Concrete Operations Economy.com

DCE

– County

- Owned C onstruction Equipment Texas State Data Center county

- level census population

DCE

– Cranes Economy.com

DCE

– Heavy

- Highway Construction Annual highway expenditures from the Texas Comptroller’s Office, for the period 2007

– 2013, appended the data to the 1998

- 2006 dataset normalized to 1998 dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI); Economy.com data prior to 1998 and after 2013

DCE

– L andfill Operations Texas State Data Center county

- level census population

DCE

– Landscaping Activities Tx REMI model outputs up to 2013; Texas State Data Center census population data for

2014

- 2050

DCE

– Manufacturing Operations Economy.com

DCE

– Munici pal

- Owned Construction Equipment Texas State Data Center county

- level census population

DCE

– Transportation/Sales/Services Economy.com

7 Eastern Research Group, Texas NONROAD Model Update and Enhancement, Work Order No. 582

- 11

- 99776

- FY14

- 25, July 30, 2014.

### 10

Non

- DCE* NONROAD default

DCE

– Residential Construction County

- level housing permit data from the Texas A&M Real Estate Center for 1980 through 2013; County

- level census projections from the Texas State Data Center for 2014 through 2050; Housing start for the southern region of the country from the U.S. Census Bureau prior to 1980

DCE

– Rough Terrain Forklifts Economy.com

DCE

– Scrap Recyclin g Operations Tx REMI model outputs up to 2013; Texas State Data Center census population data for

2014

- 2050

DCE

– Skid Steer Loaders Equipment Data Associates Sales

DCE

– Special Trades Construction Economy.com

DCE

– Trenchers Economy.com

DCE

– TxDOT Construction Equipment* Zero growth per TxDOT Equipment Replacement Policy

DCE

– Utility Construction Economy.com

DCE

– Mining & Quarry Operations Economy.com

Off

- road tractors, Miscellaneous , and all Equipment < 25 hp* NONROAD default



### 2.3 Meteorological Data 8



### TexN utilizes high, low and average temperature data, primarily to calculate evaporative
emissions from gasoline engines. These data are required as part of TexN’s primary

input file. In addition, related data on relative humidity and atmospheric pressure are

used during post-processing of the TexN model outputs to adjust diesel NOx emissions

for ambient effects. The TexN meteorological data is based on historical climate data

from December 1996 through June 2014 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

( http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/qclcd ascii/ 

### ).

2.4 Fuel Property Data

In order to maintain a high confidence level in the fuel parameters used in the

development of emission inventories, trend analysis and control strategy analysis, the

TCEQ has undertaken a program to periodically collect and analyze fuel samples. The

data ensures the accuracy of local specific fuel information and also provides the best

data available to be used in analyses to support Texas State Implementation Plan (SIP)

and control strategy development. The latest fuel sampling data, conducted in the

summer of 2014 9 

### , was incorporated into TexN for this modeling effort.

8 Eastern Research Group, Texas NONROAD Model Update and Enhancement, Work Order No. 582- 11 -99776-
FY14-25, July 30, 2014.

9 Eastern Research Group, 2014 Summer Fuel Field Study (Revised), prepared for Texas Commission on
Environmental Health (TCEQ), Revised January 2015.

### 11

2.5 Emission Factors and Control Phase

- In 10



### The TexN model uses the default emission factor and technology type files provided

with US EPA NONROAD model, thus using the same phase

- in schedule and emission

factors for Federal controls. However, unlike the NONROAD model which does not

estimate ammonia emissions, there are four ammonia emission factors in TexN: one for

diesel engines, one for spark ignition engines (gasoline and gaseous fuel) without three

way catalysts (TWCs), one for gasoline engines with TWCs, and one for natural gas/LPG

engines with TWCs. For more information on how these emission factors were derived,
please refer to the TexN User’s Guide (2008) and the Addendum (2009) 11



### .

2.6 Post Processing Adjustments and Additional Controls 12



### TexN applies adjustment factors to the emissions estimates in the output files to

generate the final criteria pollutant and ammonia emissions values. Post

- processing

applies county specific adjustments to emissions estimates for the appropriate SCCs.

Dependi ng upon the SCC and county, the following adjustments may be applied within

the database:

 County and year specific temperature and humidity adjustments for NOx
emissions;

 Adjustments for Texas Low Emission Diesel (TxLED) impacts;

 Altitude, correcting for d ecreased engine efficiency at increasing elevation;

 Soil compaction, reflecting relative ease or difficulty digging;

 Ground cover, reflecting relative ease or difficulty in land

- clearing activity;

and

 Reformulated gasoline.



## 3.0 Emissions Estimation

Using the latest version of the Texas NONROAD (TexN) model 13 

### , which incorporates all

of the latest available data updates, ERG developed both controlled and uncontrolled

average summer weekday emissions for VOC and NOX for the analysis years 2012, 2014,

2017, 2020, 2 023, 2026, and 2028 for the DFW nine

- county and HGB eight

- county 1997 eight

- hour ozone nonattainment areas.

10 Information taken from TexN User’s Guide unless otherwise noted. Eastern Research Group, Texas NONROAD
(TexN) Model Version 1.0 User’s Guide, Work Order No. 582

- 7

- 84003

- FY

- 08

- 09, August 18, 2008.

11 Eastern Research Group, Deliverable 6

– Update of TexN User’s Guide Addendum, Work Order No. 582

- 7

- 84003

- FY09

- 19, July 31, 2009.

12 Information taken from TexN User’s Guide unless otherwise noted. Eastern Research Grou p, Texas NONROAD (TexN) Model Version 1.0 User’s Guide, Work Order No. 582

- 7

- 84003

- FY

- 08

- 09, August 18, 2008.

13 TexN version 1.7.1

### 12

3.1 Controlled Emissions Estimates

The controlled emissions estimates reflect the following state and federal controls:

 Small Spark Ignition Rule

- Phas e I (Federal),

 Small Spark Ignition Rule

- Phase 2 (Federal),

 Large Spark Ignition Rule (Federal),

 Small Spark Ignition/Spark Ignition Marine Rule (Federal),

 Diesel Recreation Marine Rule (Federal),

 Tier 1 Diesel Rule (Federal),

 Tier 2/3 Diesel Rule (Feder al),

 Tier 4 Diesel Rule (Federal),

 Texas Low Emission Diesel Requirements (State), and

 Reformulated Gasoline Requirements (State).

The resulting controlled emission estimates for a typical ozone season weekday for

multiple years for each area are summarized in Tables 8

– 13

.

Table 8

. NO X 

### Controlled Emission Estimates

– DFW 4

- County Area (Tons Per Day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 7.59 7.08 5.95 4.86 4.18 3.73 3.53
Dallas 25.40 22.35 17.99 14.68 12.88 11.88 11.51

Denton 5.19 4.54 3.62 3.01 2.72 2.59 2.56

Tarrant 14.58 12.84 10.20 8.24 7.13 6.49 6.24

Grand Total 52.75 46.81 37.77 30.79 26.91 24.69 23.84



### Table 9

. VOC Controlled Emission Estimates

– DFW 4

- County Area (Tons Per Day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 5.19 4.62 4.13 3.90 3.85 3.87 3.91 Dallas 18.50 15.96 14.12 13.46 13.47 13.72 13.96

Denton 3.91 3.38 2.88 2.62 2.54 2.52 2.53

Tarrant 10.06 8.63 7.47 7.00 6.94 7.02 7.13 Grand Total 37.66 32.59 28.60 26.99 26.81 27.13 27.53

### 13

Table 10

. NO X 

### Controlled Emission Estimates

– DFW 9

- County Area (Tons Per Day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 7.59 7.08 5.95 4.86 4.18 3.73 3.53

Dallas 25.40 22.35 17.99 14.68 12.88 11.88 11.51

Denton 5.19 4.54 3.62 3.01 2.72 2.59 2.56

Ellis 2.66 2.44 1.95 1.50 1.25 1.08 1.01

Johnson 2.57 2.26 1.66 1.24 1.03 0.92 0.88

Kaufman 2.60 2.09 1.56 1.18 0.98 0.88 0.85

Parker 2.08 1.70 1.25 0.94 0.78 0.70 0.68

Rockwall 0.84 0.77 0.65 0.53 0.45 0.41 0.39

Tarrant 14.58 12.84 10.20 8.24 7.13 6.49 6.24

Grand Total 63.50 56.08 44.82 36.18 31.40 28.69 27.64



### Table 11

. VOC Controlled Emission Estimates

– DFW 9

- County Area (Tons Per Day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 5.19 4.62 4.13 3.90 3.85 3.87 3.91

Dallas 18.50 15.96 14.12 13.46 13.47 13.72 13.96

Denton 3.91 3.38 2.88 2.62 2.54 2.52 2.53

Ellis 1.37 1.21 1.02 0.90 0.86 0.84 0.84

Johnson 0.79 0.69 0.60 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.56

Kaufman 0.94 0.82 0.72 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.67

Parker 0.99 0.89 0.76 0.69 0.67 0.66 0.67

Rockwall 1.03 0.90 0.76 0.66 0.60 0.57 0.56

Tarrant 10.06 8.63 7.47 7.00 6.94 7.02 7.13

Grand Total 42.78 37.10 32.47 30.47 30.14 30.42 30.82



### Table 12

. NO X 

### Controlled Emission Estimates

– HGB Area (Tons Per Day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Brazoria 3.24 2.84 2.25 1.76 1.49 1.35 1.29

Chambers 0.75 0.62 0.47 0.36 0.31 0.29 0.28

Fort Bend 3.86 3.61 2.95 2.34 2.00 1.79 1.70

Galveston 2.39 2.08 1.67 1.30 1.09 0.97 0.91

Harris 36.67 32.26 25.36 20.04 17.24 15.70 15.14

Liberty 1.10 0.92 0.68 0.51 0.42 0.38 0.36

Montgomery 3.05 2.66 2.12 1.67 1.42 1.29 1.24

Waller 0.81 0.69 0.51 0.39 0.33 0.30 0.29

Grand Total 51.88 45.68 36.01 28.36 24.30 22.06 21.21

### 14 Table 13

. VOC Controlled Emission Estimates

– HGB Area (Tons Per Day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Brazoria 2.67 2.34 1.94 1.69 1.56 1.49 1.46

Chambers 0.89 0.78 0.62 0.50 0.44 0.39 0.37

Fort Bend 2.07 1.86 1.68 1.61 1.61 1.64 1.67

Galveston 3.08 2.70 2.26 1.95 1.78 1.67 1.63

Harris 26.09 22.69 19.39 17.80 17.36 17.35 17.51

Liberty 0.51 0.46 0.40 0.37 0.36 0.37 0.37

Montgomery 3.69 3.29 2.82 2.52 2.38 2.32 2.30

Waller 0.38 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.26

Grand Total 39.38 34.45 29.40 26.71 25.75 25.49 25.57



### 3.2 Uncontrolled Emissions Estimates

To estimate the uncontrolled emissions using TexN, the Technology Type Year was set

to 1970, essentially turning off all Federal controls. In addition, the State controls for

TxLED and RFG were also turned off. The resulting emissions are presented in Ta ble s

14

- 19

.

Table 14

. NO X 

### Uncontrolled Emission Estimates

– DFW 4

- County Area (Tons Per Day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 19.43 21.60 24.26 25.74 27.22 28.52 29.45

Dallas 60.13 65.10 71.72 74.79 77.97 80.68 82.61

Denton 12.69 13.67 15.16 16.15 17.19 18.22 18.97

Tarrant 35.90 38.85 42.32 44.17 46.09 47.78 48.94

Grand Total 128.15 139.23 153.46 160.85 168.46 175.21 179.97



### Table 15

. VOC Uncontrolled Emission Estimates

– DFW 4

- County Area (Tons Per Day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 16.06 16.78 17.76 18.55 19.33 20.09 20.61

Dallas 57.82 60.50 64.29 67.35 70.44 73.44 75.47

Denton 10.82 11.27 11.91 12.44 12.96 13.48 13.83

Tarrant 30.15 31.49 33.33 34.85 36.38 37.87 38.88

Grand Total 114.85 120.04 127.29 133.18 139.12 144.88 148.78

### 15

Table 16

. NO X 

### Uncontrolled Emission Estimates

– DFW 9

- County Area (Tons Per Day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 19.43 21.60 24.26 25.74 27.22 28.52 29.45

Dallas 60.13 65.10 71.72 74.79 77.97 80.68 82.61

Denton 12.69 13.67 15.16 16.15 17.19 18.22 18.97

Ellis 7.19 8.30 9.34 9.75 10.19 10.53 10.76

Johnson 7.64 8.38 8.90 9.19 9.50 9.82 10.03

Kaufman 7.79 7.73 8.35 8.80 9.27 9.75 10.09

Parker 6.42 6.42 6.86 7.18 7.51 7.85 8.10

Rockwall 2.11 2.33 2.62 2.80 2.99 3.17 3.31

Tarrant 35.90 38.85 42.32 44.17 46.09 47.78 48.94

Grand Total 159.30 172.37 189.53 198.57 207.93 216.33 222.25



### Table 17

. VOC Uncontrolled Emission Estimates

– DFW 9

- County Area (Tons Per Day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 16.06 16.78 17.76 18.55 19.33 20.09 20.61

Dallas 57.82 60.50 64.29 67.35 70.44 73.44 75.47

Denton 10.82 11.27 11.91 12.44 12.96 13.48 13.83

Ellis 3.55 3.78 4.03 4.19 4.35 4.50 4.60

Johnson 2.87 3.05 3.22 3.36 3.50 3.63 3.73

Kaufman 3.14 3.24 3.43 3.59 3.75 3.90 4.01

Parker 2.82 2.93 3.10 3.23 3.35 3.48 3.56

Rockwall 2.55 2.63 2.75 2.85 2.96 3.06 3.13

Tarrant 30.15 31.49 33.33 34.85 36.38 37.87 38.88

Grand Total 129.79 135.67 143.82 150.40 157.03 163.46 167.81



### Table 18

. NO X 

### Uncontrolled Emission Estimates

– HGB Area (Tons Per Day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Brazoria 8.74 9.36 10.26 10.64 11.08 11.48 11.74 Chambers 2.10 2.18 2.33 2.44 2.57 2.69 2.77 Fort Bend 10.21 11.48 12.70 13.29 14.00 14.66 15.11 Galveston 6.33 6.70 7.38 7.55 7.74 7.90 8.02

Harris 93.60 102.60 112.36 116.37 121.24 125.65 128.71 Liberty 3.34 3.44 3.65 3.75 3.88 4.00 4.08
Montgomery 7.95 8.54 9.39 9.80 10.27 10.71 11.01
Waller 2.48 2.56 2.73 2.86 2.99 3.13 3.21 Grand Total 134.74 146.85 160.80 166.70 173.76 180.21 184.67

### 16

Table 19

. VOC Uncontrolled Emission Estimates

– HGB Area (Tons Per Day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Brazoria 6.81 7.07 7.43 7.69 7.95 8.21 8.38

Chambers 1.82 1.87 1.94 2.00 2.06 2.12 2.16

Fort Bend 6.97 7.36 7.85 8.22 8.61 8.98 9.24
Galveston 6.79 7.00 7.32 7.56 7.79 8.02 8.18

Harris 76.65 80.32 85.22 89.00 92.94 96.79 99.36 Liberty 1.54 1.61 1.70 1.78 1.85 1.92 1.97 Montgomery 8.99 9.32 9.80 10.18 10.56 10.92 11.16

Waller 1.20 1.25 1.32 1.37 1.43 1.48 1.52 Grand Total 110.76 115.80 122.58 127.79 133.19 138.45 141.97



### 3.3 Trend s

The following figures illustrate the trends for controlled emissions in the DFW and HGB

areas.

Figure 1. DFW Controlled Emissions Trends (NO X 

### ) (Tons Per Day)

### 17

Figure 2. DFW Controlled Emissions Trends (VOC) (Tons Per Day)

Figure 3. HGB Controlled Emissions Trends (NO X 

### ) (Tons Per Day)

### 18

Figure 4. HGB Controlled Emissions Trends (VOC) (Tons Per Day)