10B

- i APPENDIX 10B. FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE MULTIPLIERS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10B

- 1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 10B

- 1 10B

- 2 METHODOLOGY

................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 10B

- 1 10B

- 3 ENERGY MULTIPLIERS FOR THE FULL FUEL CYCLE

................................ ..... 10B

- 3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10B

- 2.1 Dependence of FFC Parameters on AEO Inputs

................................ ........ 10B

- 3 Table 10B

- 3.1 Energy Multipliers for the Full Fuel Cycle (Based on AEO2014 )

............. 10B

- 310B

- 1 APPENDIX 10B. FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE MULTIPLIERS

10B

- 1 INTRODUCTION
This appendix summarizes the methods the U.S. Department of Energy (D OE ) used to calculate the full

- fuel

- cycle (FFC) energy savings estimated from potential standards for portable air condition ers (ACs) . The FFC measure includes point

- of

- use (site) e nergy ; the energy lo sses associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity ; and the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. DOE’s method of analysis previously encompassed only site energy and the ener gy los t through generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. In 2011 DOE announced its intention, based on recommendations from the National Academy of Sciences

, to use FFC measures of energy use and emissions when analyzing proposed energy c onservation standards. 1 This appendix summarizes the methods DOE used to incorporate impacts o f the ful l fuel cycle into the analysis.

This analysis uses several terms to describe aspects of energy use. The physical sources of energy are primary fuels such as coal, natural gas, or liquid fuel. Primary energy is equal to the heat content ( British thermal units [ Btu ] ) of the primary fuel used to produce an end

- use service. Site energy use is de fined as the energy consumed at the point of use in a house or establishment . Whe n natural gas or petroleum fuels are consumed at the site (for example in a n

on

- site furnace), site energy is identical to primary energy, with both equal to the heat content of the primary fuel consumed.

For electricity generated by a n off

- site power plant , site energy is measured in kilowatt

hours ( kWh ) . In such a case the primary energy is equal to the quads (quadrillion Btu) of primary energy required to generate and del iver electricity to the site. For the FFC analysis, upstream energy use is defined as the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. FFC energy use is the sum of primary plus upstream energy use

. Both prim ary fuels and electricity are used in upstream activities. The treatment of electricity in full

- fuel

- cycle analysis must distinguish between electricity generated by fossil fuels and uranium and electricity generated from renewable sources (wind, solar

, an d hydro). For the former, the upstream fuel cycle relates to the amount of fuel consumed at the power plant. T here is no upstream component for the latter, because no fuel per se is used

.

10B

- 2 METHODOLOGY
The mathematical approach to determining FCC is discussed in Coughlin (2012). 2 D etails

on analyzing the fuel production chain are presented in Coughlin (2013). 3 The methods used to calculate FFC energy use are summarized here. When all energy quantities are normalized to the same units, FFC energy us e can be represented as the product of the primary energy use and an10B

- 2

FFC multiplier

. Mathematically t he FFC multiplier is a function of a set of parameters that represent the energy intensity and material losses at each stage of energy production. Th o se parameters depend only on physical data, so the calculations require no assumptions about prices or other economic factor s

. Although the parameter values often differ by geographic region, this analysis utilizes national averages.

The fuel cycle para meters are defined as follows.

 a x is the quantity of fuel x burned per unit of electricity produced , on average, for grid electricity. The calculation of a x includes a factor to account for losses incurred through the transmission and distribution system s

.

 b y is the amount of grid electricity used in producing fuel y , in MWh per physical unit of fuel y

.

 c xy is the amount of fuel x consumed in producing one unit of fuel y

.

 q x is the heat content of fuel x (MBtu/physical unit)

.

 z x (s) is the emissions inten sity for fuel x (mass of pollutant s per physical unit of x produced )

.

All t he parameters are calculated as function s of an annual time step; hence, when evaluating the effects of potential new standards, a time series of annual values is used to estimate the FFC energy and emissions savings in each year of the analysis period and cumulatively . Fossil fuel quantities are converted to energy units using the heat content factor q x . To convert electricity in kWh to primary energy units, on

- site electricity co nsumption is multiplied by the site

- to

- power

- plant energy use factor

, described in chapter 10. The site

- to

power

- plant energy use factor is defined as the ratio of the total primary energy consumption by the electric power sector (in quad s ) divided by the total electricity generated each year.

The FFC multiplier is denoted μ (mu). A separate multiplier is calculated for each fuel used on site . A lso calculated is a multiplier for electricity that reflects the fuel mix used in its generation. The multipliers are dimensionless numbers applied to primary energy savings to obtain the FFC energy savings. The upstream component of the energy savings is proportional to (μ

- 1). The fuel type is denoted by a subscript on the multiplier μ.

When DOE estimates energy sa vings attributable to appliance standards, the method for performing the full

- fuel

- cycle analysis utilizes data and projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) ; in the case of portable AC s, the AEO201 4

. 4 Table 10B

- 2

. summa rizes the AEO 201 4 data used as inputs to the calculation of various parameters

. The column titled "AEO Table " gives the name of the table that provided the reference data

.10B

- 3

Table 10B

- 2

. 1 Dependence of FFC Parameters on AEO Inputs Parameter (s) Fuel (s) AEO Table Variables
q x All Conversion factors MMBtu per physical unit

a x All Electricity supply, disposition, prices, and emissions Generation by fuel type
Energy consumption by sector and source Electric energy consumption by the power sector

b c , c nc , c pc Coal Coal production by region and type Coal p roduction by type and sulfur content

b p , c np , c pp Petroleum Refining industry energy consumption Refining

- only energy use Liquid fuels supply and disposition Crude supply by source

International liquids supply and disposition Crude oil imports

Oil and gas supply Domestic c rude oil production

c nn Natural gas Oil and gas supply U

. S

. dry gas production Natural gas supply, disposition, and prices Pipeline, lease, and plant fuel

z x All Electricity supply, disposition, prices, and emissions Power sector emissions

The AEO 201 4 does not provide all the information needed to estimate total energy use in the fuel production chain. Coughlin ( 2013 ) describes the additional data sources needed to complete the analysis. The time dependence in the FFC multipliers for dishwashers, howev er, arises exclusively from variables taken from the AEO201 4

.

10B

- 3 ENERGY MULTIPLIERS FOR THE FULL FUEL CYCLE
FFC energy multipliers for selected years are presented in Table 10B

- 3

. 1

. The 2040 value was held constant f

or the analysis period beyond 2040

, which is the last year in the AEO 201 4 projection . The multiplier for electricity reflects the shares of various primary fuels in total electricity generation throughout the forecast period.

Table 10B

- 3

. 1 Energy Multipliers for the Full Fuel Cycle (Based on AEO201 4 ) 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Electricity 1.04 3 1.04 4 1.04 5 1.04 6 1.04 7 1.04 7 Natural gas 1.10 8 1.10 9 1.1 11 1. 113 1. 114 1.1 14 Petroleum fuels 1.1 76 1.1 76 1.1 76 1.1 74 1.1 72 1.1 7010B

- 4

REFERENCES

1 U.S. Department of Energy

– O ffice of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products and Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment. Statement of Policy for Adopting Full Fuel Cycle Analyses into Energy Conservation Standards Program. Federal Register

. August 18, 2011. Vol. 76, n o. 160 : pp. 51281

– 51289

.

2 Coughlin, K. A Mathematical Analysis of Full Fuel Cycle Energy Use

. Energy. 2012. 37(1): pp. 698

– 708. (Last accessed June 22, 2014.)

< http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S03 60544211006803 >

3 Coughlin, K. Projections of Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics . 2013. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Report No. LBNL

- 6025E.

4 U.S. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 201 4 with Projections to 2040 . April 201 4 . DOE/EIA

- 0383(201 4 ). Washington, D.C. (Last accessed June 22, 2014.) < http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2014).pdf >