sta s for Distribution Transformers

Presentations on Utility Impacts Analysis

and Environmental Analysis

Stuart Chaitkin, LBNL

November 1, 2000

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UTILITY IMPACTS ANALYSIS

The Utility Impacts Analysis is designed to estimate

the effects of candidate standard levels on electric

utilities.

In this situation, we mean "utilities" in their role as

generators or distributors of energy, not as "consumers" of

distribution transformers.

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Outline of Proposed Analysis

Inputs: The inputs to this analysis are the annual

energy savings that are forecast by the National

Energy Savings (NES) analysis.

Analysis Model: The Department proposes to use a

version of the Energy Information Administration's

(EIA) widely recognized National Energy Modeling

System (HEMS).

Outputs: The outputs available from this analysis

include end-use electricity sales, utility generation,

installed generating capacity, and the distribution of

the fuel mix over the forecast period.

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NEMS

NEMS has been developed over several years by EIA, primarily for

the purpose of preparing the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).

NEMS is available in the public domain.

NEMS is a large, multi-sector model of the U.S. energy sector.

NEMS produces a "reference" case, with energy consumption

forecasts for the U.S. through 2020.

The version of NEMS that we use for appliance standards analysis is

called NEMS-BRS (for DOE's Building Research and Standards

office).

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tHhod

To analyze the effect of candidate standard levels, we

compare NEMS-BRS output for the various standard

levels we're examining with the latest AEO Reference

Case.

- To make this comparison, we first run NEMS-BRS just as it

would be run to produce the AEO Reference Case. So, the

assumptions we use (e.g., for power plant operating

characteristics) will be those used in the latest AEO.

Then, we run it with energy use (in the appropriate sector:

residential, commercial, or industrial) reduced by the amount

of energy (in the case of transformers, electricity) saved due

to the candidate standard levels.

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Notes

Scale ofAnalysis: The NEMS model does not allow us

to look at the impacts of candidate standard levels on a

utility-by-utility basis.

Restructuring: EIA has incorporated the ongoing and

expected implementation of utility industry

restructuring into its AEO Reference Case. In

addition, EIA has developed a scenario where

competitive pricing is phased in over 10 years in all

regions of the country.

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NVIRONMENTAL ANALY S I S

The Environmental Analysis is designed to estimate

the effect that candidate standard levels would have

on reducing environmental emissions.

Those reductions in emissions would stem from the

reduced operation of power plants, which in turn stem from

the reduced consumption of electrical energy due to the

candidate standard levels.

We intend to report on carbon and NOX emissions

reductions from the power sector.

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Inputs: As with the Utility Impacts Analysis, the inputs to this analysis

are the annual energy savings that are forecast by the National Energy

Savings (NES) analysis.

Analysis Model: As with the Utility Impacts Analysis, the Department

proposes to use NEMS-BRS, a version of EIA's NEMS model.

Outputs: The key outputs from this analysis are the levels of carbon and

NOX emissions.

Scale of Analysis: The model does not allow us to look at the impacts of

candidate standard levels on a utility -by-utility basis.

Environmental issues not treated by NEMS-BRS: Exogenous analysis

would be used to evaluate such issues.

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