U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Macro-Industrial Working Group meeting 1: 

Industrial updates and some preliminary results

Macro Industrial Working Group (MIWG)

Industrial Team: Kelly Perl, Team Leader; Peter Gross, Susan Hicks, Paul Otis

December 3, 2015 | Washington, DC

Preliminary Results. Do not Disseminate.
AEO2016 additions for industrial

• Technology choice models complete; end of 5 year effort

• Benchmarking improvements

– Individual industry benchmarking complete

– On-going effort to coordinate reporting and benchmarking with refinery model (LFMM) 

• Data updates

– Non-manufacturing data updates (Economic Census)

– Planned calibration using other data sets (EIA, Census, BENTEK) to improve precisions of 

projections

• Regulation updates

Industrial Team December 3, 2015 2
 Technology choice for process flow industries

• General

– Allow for technology choice within individual process flows for energy-intensive industries 

(e.g., anode production for primary aluminum smelting)

– Technology choices based on relative capital and operating costs including fuel 

consumption/costs. 

– Technologies are primarily based on CIMS (Consolidated Impacts Modeling System) data 

from DOE’s (PNNL) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 

• All submodules complete: Cement & Lime (AEO2012), Aluminum 

(AEO2013), Glass (AEO2014) , Steel (AEO2016), Pulp & Paper (AEO2016)

• Technology choice models will allow for AEO2016‘s new energy efficiency 

case and also potentially allow for carbon cases. 

Industrial Team December 3, 2015 3
 Data updates & regulation

• Data

– Economic Census for nonmanufacturing – completed

– Calibration to achieve greater precision in historic data and benchmarking; will start with 

natural gas

– No 860/923 CHP data update this year

• Regulation updates

– Updated motor efficiencies to reflect latest motor efficiency standards (10 CFR 431 Part B, 

Federal Register Cite FR 79 pp 30934-310104 (2014))

– Industrial Combined Heat and Power (CHP) not affected by Clean Power Plan and not 

modeled in IDM

Industrial Team December 3, 2015 4
• CHP for Iron and Steel and Paper 

submodules now calculated outside 

boiler/steam/cogen (BSC) component

• Majority of CHP generation decline 

between AEO2015 and AEO2016 

result of declines in paper CHP 

generation

• Renewables share of paper CHP 

significantly higher in AEO2016 (11 pp 

in 2015; 20pp in 2040)

Source: AEO2015 Ref2015.0219a & AEO2016 Ref2016.1130a run Table 44, energy consumption by sector

Changes to Combined Heat and Power Modeling & Preliminary results

5 Industrial Team December 3, 2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Industrial CHP Generation

AEO2015

AEO2016

billion kwh
Source: AEO2015 Reference case & AEO2016 Ref2016.1201b

Aluminum submodule: delaying significant inert anode penetration 

increases energy use by 20% by 2040, mostly in petcoke

6 Industrial Team December 3, 2015

0

100

200

300

400

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Aluminum Energy Consumption 

AEO2015 trillion btu

Other fuels

Petcoke

0

100

200

300

400

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Aluminum Energy Consumption 

AEO2016 

trillion btu

Other fuels

Petcoke
Memo on this meeting and presentation can 

be found here in about a month:

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/macroindustrial/

7 Industrial Team December 3, 2015
Thank you for your attention!

Macro Team:

Kay Smith (202) 586-1132 | kay.smith@eia.gov

Vipin Arora (202) 586-1048 | vipin.arora@eia.gov

Russell Tarver (202) 586-3991 | russell.tarver@eia.gov

Elizabeth Sendich (202) 586-7145 | elizabeth.sendich@eia.gov

Industrial Team: EIA-OECEAIndustrialTeam@eia.gov

Kelly Perl (202) 586-1743

Peter Gross (202) 586-8822

Susan Hicks (202) 586-4388

Paul Otis (202) 586-2306

Industrial Team December 3, 2015 8