U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2014

1

st Coal Working Group

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team

July 22, 2013| Washington, D.C.
Topics for discussion

• Recoding to AIMMS; otherwise, no changes to Coal Market 

Module (CMM) structure or equations from AEO2013

• Legislation and regulations

• Retirements and additions

• Pollution control retrofits

• Coal productivity trends

• Projected consumption (CTL), production, exports, and prices

• Side cases

2

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Key results for the AEO2013 Reference case

3

• Coal remains the leading fuel for U.S. electricity generation, but 

coal’s share of total generation decreases over time to 35% in 2040 

(from 42% in 2011)

• Coal producers in both the Interior and Western regions see their 

shares of total U.S. coal production increase over the projection 

period, while Appalachia's share declines. From 2011 to 2040, the 

Appalachian region's share of total coal production (on a Btu basis) 

falls from 38 percent to 32 percent.

• Nearly all of the 49 GW of coal-fired capacity retirements (28 GW 

planned) occur by 2016 largely because of the combination of 

MATS, relatively low natural gas prices, and relatively low electricity 

demand

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Key results for the AEO2013 Reference case

4

• Expanding development of shale gas resources drive increased 

production and competitive prices for natural gas

• Coal consumption declines by 119 million short tons between 2011 

and 2016. Between 2016 and 2040, coal consumption rises due to 

more intensive use of remaining coal plants as natural gas prices 

rise, but it never reaches the record 2007 level.

• 9 GW of additions (6 GW planned)

• Delivered coal prices increase gradually through 2040 at an 

average rate of 0.9% per year due to declining coal mine 

productivity and increasing transportation costs

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Legislation and regulation assumptions

5

• Current laws and regulations addressed in the AEO2014 Reference Case

- Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)

- Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) by 2016

- State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

- California’s cap-and-trade program and the Northeast’s RGGI program

- Uncertainty with respect to CO2 policy addressed through a 3% higher cost of 

capital for new coal-fired power plants and capital investment projects at 

existing coal-fired power plants

• Issues not addressed in the AEO2014 Reference Case

– CO2 New Source Performance Standards (NSPS)

– Cooling water intake regulations per section 316(b) of the Clean Water Act

– Regional haze

– Coal combustion residuals

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Planned (reported and unconfirmed) annual coal-fired capacity 

retirements in the electric power sector

6

megawatts, net summer

Sources: Reported retirements were collected on U.S. Energy Information Administration Form EIA-860, “Annual Electric Generator Report;” 

Unconfirmed retirements were collected from various trade press. EIA-860 data for 2012 are preliminary.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Reported Retirement Capacity Unconfirmed Retirement Capacity AEO2013 Retirements

Almost 24 GW of coal-fired capacity has been 

reported to EIA as planned to retire between 

2013 and 2022 with an additional 11 GW of 

capacity reported in trade press but not yet 

confirmed by plant owners and operators.
7

* Units that come on-line in December are reported in NEMS as planned additions for the next calendar year.

Note: Three coal-fired generating units that came on-line in 2012, with a combined generating capacity of 2,214 MW,

were included as planned capacity additions in the AEO2013. These units will be included as existing capacity in the

AEO2014. The three units were Prairie State Generating Station’s units PC1 (812 MW) and PC2 (817 MW) and Virginia

City Hybrid Energy Center’s unit 1 (585 MW). 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860 “Annual Electric Generator Report”

Preliminary AEO2014: Planned Coal-Fired Capacity Additions

(megawatts)

FACILITY 

CODE PLANT NAME

GENERATOR 

ID STATE

PLANT 

TYPE

ENERGY 

SOURCE

START 

YEAR

START 

MONTH

SUMMER 

CAPABILITY

2721 Cliffside* 6 NC PC BIT 2012 12 825

56564 John W Turk Jr Power Plant* 1 AR PC SUB 2012 12 609

56611 Sandy Creek Energy Station S01 TX PC SUB 2013 5 911

1004 Edwardsport ST,CT1,CT2 IN IGCC BIT 2013 6 571

57037 Kemper County IGCC Project 1A,1B,1C MS IGCC LIG 2014 5 593

7570 Spiritwood 1 ND PC LIG 2014 6 62

55360 Two Elk Generating Station GEN1 WY PC WC 2016 12 275

To be included as planned capacity additions in AEO2014: 3,846

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
8

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013

EIA-860: Coal-Fired Capacity Reported as Planned but Not Yet 

Under Construction (megawatts)

FACILITY 

CODE PLANT NAME

GENERATOR 

ID STATE

PLANT 

TYPE

ENERGY 

SOURCE

START 

YEAR

START 

MONTH

SUMMER 

CAPABILITY

56453 Robinson Power Company LLC 1 PA PC BIT 2016 4 132

56452 Medicine Bow Fuel & Power LLC 1 WY CTL BIT 2016 12 350

56675 Plant Washington 1 GA PC SUB 2018 4 850

56454 Taylorville Energy Center MAIN IL IGCC BIT 2018 6 533

Total Capacity 1,865

Note: Because these units are reported as not yet under construction on the EIA-860, these units are not included

as planned capacity additions in the AEO2014. 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860 “Annual Electric Generator Report”
9

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Reference Case

*MATS compliance assumed to begin

Electric Net Summer Generating Capacity by Fuel, 2008-2040 

(gigawatts)

Fuel 2008 2011 2015 2016* 2020 2035 2040

Coal 311 318 301 278 277 277 278

 Electric Power Sector 308 314 297 275 273 272 273

 End-Use Sectors 4 4 4 4 4 5 5

Natural Gas 335 359 379 380 390 519 566

Petroleum 115 103 99 97 88 68 66

Nuclear Power 101 101 104 106 111 109 113

Renewable Sources 117 143 171 175 178 208 245

Other (includes pumped 

storage)

25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Total 1004 1050 1079 1061 1068 1206 1293

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Electricity Sector Net Summer Generating Capacity by SO2

Control Type and Region, 2011 and 2020 in AEO2013

Office of Energy Analysis, 

Washington, DC, June 2012 10

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Reference Case

0

50

100

150

2011 2020

Northeast

gigawatts

0

50

100

150

2011 2020

Midwest

gigawatts

0

50

100

150

2011 2020

South

gigawatts

0

50

100

150

2011 2020

West

gigawatts

128

187

217

50

6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2020

U.S. total

gigawatts

uncontrolled

scrubbed

dry sorbent

injection

new capacity

Note: Scrubbed capacity includes 

capacity equipped with flue gas 

desulfurization (FGD) equipment and 

coal plants employing integrated 

gasification combined (IGCC) cycle or 

circulating fluidized bed (CFB) 

combustion technologies.
Average Delivered Price of Coal and Natural Gas 

to the Electric Power Sector, 1980-2040

11

2011 dollars per million Btu

Natural Gas

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Short Term Energy Outlook, 

July 2013

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review and Electric Power Monthly;

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Reference Case

History Projections

Coal

2011

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Coal production by region, 1970-2040

12

million short tons

Appalachia

Interior

Western

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Total

Short Term energy Outlook,

July 2013

History 2011 Projections

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report; 

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Reference Case

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Coal production, 2040 (and 2012) 

(million short tons)

13

233

8 (13)

62

31 (28)

1 (2)

170 (130)

183 (127)

87 (148)

13 (20)

55 (48)

32 (30)

34 (45)

476 (388)*

3 (2)**

73 (36)

U.S. Total: 

1,167 (1,016)

Source: 2012: Mine Safety and Health Administration, Form 7000-2, “Quarterly Mine and Employment and Coal

Production Report;” 2040: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Reference Case

* Includes production from all mines in 

Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.

** Includes production from mines in both 

Alaska and Washington.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Average annual growth in coal mining labor productivity 

for selected supply regions (percent)

14

Coal Supply Region 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2011 2011-2040 2011-2012

Northern Appalachia 5.4 5.5 -2.5 -1.2 -3.6

Central Appalachia 7.3 4.4 -6.1 -3.6 -3.8

Eastern Interior 4.8 3.7 -1.4 -0.6 5.8

Gulf Lignite 2.6 2.4 -2.7 -2.3 -4.2

Dakota Lignite 6.0 1.0 -3.3 -0.9 -4.5

Western Montana 4.6 2.0 -3.0 -1.7 -11.7

WY, Northern Powder River Basin 7.5 3.2 -3.0 -1.7 -5.8

WY, Southern Powder River Basin 7.2 4.9 -2.7 -1.7 -6.6

Rocky Mountain 7.8 5.5 -3.3 -1.9 2.9

U.S. Average 7.1 6.2 -2.7 -1.4 0.1

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report; and Mine Safety and Health 

Administration, Form 7000-2, “Quarterly Mine and Employment and Coal Production Report;” 

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Reference Case

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Average minemouth coal price by region, 1980-2040

15

2011 dollars per short ton

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Note: Historical price data for Wyoming’s PRB is represented by data for Campbell county. 

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report; 

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Reference Case

Western 

(including WY PRB)

Interior

Appalachia

WY PRB

U.S. Average

History 2011 Projections

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Coal consumption by sector, 1970-2040

16

million short tons

Electricity

Other Coal-to-Liquids

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Total

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review; 

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013), Reference Case

History 2011 Projections

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013

Short Term energy Outlook,

July 2013
Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2040

17

billion kilowatthours

Coal

Petroleum

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Renewables

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Short Term Energy Outlook, 

July 2013

Note: Includes generation from plants in both the electric power and end-use sectors.

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review; 

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Reference Case.

History Projections 2011

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Electricity generation by fuel, 1990-2040

18

Oil and other 

liquids

Coal

Nuclear

Renewables

Natural gas

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

30%

16%

17%

35%

1%

25% 30% (30%) 

13% 12% (13%) 

19% 19% (19%)

42% 38% (37%)

1% 1% (1%)

Billion kilowatthours

History Projections

2011

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Reference Case

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013

2012

projected

2012

Actual
Average Capacity Utilization Rate for Coal-Fired Generating Capacity in 

Five Cases, 2005-2040

19

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040

percent

Projections

Reference

Low Coal Cost

Low Oil and Gas Resource

High Coal Cost

High Oil and Gas Resource

History

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, National Energy Modeling System runs 

REF2013.D102312A, LCCST13.D112112A, HCCST13.D112112A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, and LOWRESOURCE.D012813A. 
U.S. Coal Exports, 1995-2040

20

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Quarterly Coal Report; 

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013), Reference Case

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Metallurgical 

Steam 

million short tons
Coal exports by major coal-producing region, 2010-2040

21

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Interior

million short tons

Source: 2010 and 2011: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Distribution Report; 

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013), Reference Case

Appalachia

Western

Total

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013

Short Term Energy Outlook, 

July 2013
Uncertainty is explored with numerous 

alternative cases

22

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
23

AEO2013

Reference

Low 

Economic 

Growth

High 

Economic 

Growth

Low Coal 

Cost

High Coal 

Cost

High Oil and 

Gas 

Resource

Low Oil and 

Gas 

Resource

GHG15

(CO2 fee of 

$15 in 2014 

increasing to 

$53 in 2040)

GHG25

(CO2 fee of 

$25 in 2014 

increasing to 

$89 in 2040)

GDP growth (avg. 

annual change from 

2011)

2.5% 1.9% 2.9%

Electricity demand

(avg. annual change 

from 2011)

0.9% 0.6% 1.2%

Delivered natural gas 

price to the electricity 

sector, 2040 (2011 

dollars per million Btu)

$8.38 $5.13 $10.55 $11.01* $11.10*

Delivered coal price 

to the electricity 

sector , 2040 (2011 

dollars per million Btu)

$3.20 $1.88 $5.68 $7.71* $9.45*

Minemouth coal 

price, 2040 (2011

dollars per short ton)

$61.28 $33.90 $128.09

Western coal 

transportation rates 

(percent change from 

2011, constant dollar 

basis)

0.0% -24% 27%

Coal mining 

productivity (avg. 

annual change from 

2011)

-1.4% 0.9% -4.3%

Coal with CCS in 

power sector, 2040 

(gigawatts)

0.9 2.6 3.9

NGCC with CCS in 

power sector, 2040 

(gigawatts)

0.0 5.8 49.9

Key differences between alternate cases

*Includes CO2fee 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
U.S. Coal Production, 2020 and 2040

24

million short tons

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

GHG15

High Oil and Gas Resource

High Coal Cost

Low Oil and Gas Resource

Reference

Low Coal Cost

2011 2020 2040

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, National Energy Modeling System runs 

REF2013.D102312A, LCCST13.D112112A, HCCST13.D112112A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, 

and CO2FEE15.D021413A.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Coal production by region, 2040

25

Million short tons

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2011 Reference Low Coal 

Cost

High Coal 

Cost

High Oil and 

Gas Resource

Low Oil and 

Gas Resource

GHG 15

West

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, National Energy Modeling System runs REF2013.D102312A,

LCCST13.D112112A, HCCST13.D112112A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, and CO2FEE15.D021413A.

Appalachia

Interior

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
2040 electricity generation shares

26

percent

42% 35% 35% 34% 38%

28% 27%

38% 37%

13%

2%

24%

30% 31% 27%

29%

36% 43% 21%

30%

31%

29%

19% 17% 18%

19%

17% 17%

16%

21%

17%

27%

37%

13% 16% 15% 19% 16% 18% 14% 20% 15%

28% 31%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Higher / Lower 

Electricity 

Demand

Higher / Lower 

Coal Prices

Higher / Lower 

Natural Gas 

Prices

GHG Cases

Renewables

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Coal

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, National Energy Modeling System runs REF2013.D102312A,

LOWMACRO.D110912A, HIGHMACRO.D110912A, LCCST13.D112112A HCCST13.D112112A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, 

LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, NOGHGCONCERN.D110912A, CO2FEE15.D021413A, and CO2FEE25.D021413A.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Cumulative coal-fired capacity retirements, 2012-2040

27

gigawatts

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Reference Low 

Economic 

Growth

High 

Economic 

Growth

Low Coal 

Cost

High Coal 

Cost

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

No GHG 

Concern

GHG 15 GHG 25

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, National Energy Modeling System runs REF2013.D102312A,

LOWMACRO.D110912A, HIGHMACRO.D110912A, LCCST13.D112112A HCCST13.D112112A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, 

LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, NOGHGCONCERN.D110912A, CO2FEE15.D021413A, and CO2FEE25.D021413A.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
Cumulative coal-fired capacity additions, 2012-2040

28

gigawatts

0

10

20

30

40

50

Reference Low 

Economic 

Growth

High 

Economic 

Growth

Low Coal 

Cost

High Coal 

Cost

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

No GHG 

Concern

GHG 15 GHG 25

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, National Energy Modeling System runs REF2013.D102312A,

LOWMACRO.D110912A, HIGHMACRO.D110912A, LCCST13.D112112A HCCST13.D112112A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, 

LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, NOGHGCONCERN.D110912A, CO2FEE15.D021413A, and CO2FEE25.D021413A.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013
29

For more information

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ayaka.jones@eia.gov, (202) 586-0998

diane.kearney@eia.gov, (202) 586-2415

michael.mellish@eia.gov, (202) 586-2136

vlad.dorjets@eia.gov, (202) 586-3141

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Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, July 22, 2013