U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Buildings Sector Working Group

Erin Boedecker, Buildings Analysis Team Leader

 Owen Comstock

 Behjat Hojjati

 Kevin Jarzomski

 David Peterson

 Steve Wade

July 22, 2013

AEO2014 Model Development
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Overview

Builldings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 / July 22, 2013 2

• Residential projects

– RECS update

– Lighting model

– Equipment, shell subsidies

– ENERGY STAR benchmarking

– Housing stock formation and 

decay

• Commercial projects

– Major end-use capacity factors

– Hurdle rates

– ENERGY STAR buildings

• Both sectors

– Consumer behavior workshop

– Comparisons to STEO

– AER  MER

– Usual annual updates

– Miscellaneous end-use 

technology assumptions updates
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

RECS 2009 data in NEMS

Builldings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 / July 22, 2013 3
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Data comparison: 2005 vs 2009

Builldings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 / July 22, 2013 4

• Not necessarily RECS 2005 

and RECS 2009

– Other sources used to inform 

some equipment stock and 

consumption figures

– Generally RECS for major end 

uses, Navigant’s MELs report for 

minor end uses

• Draft memo will be provided 

to working group participants

– Installed base and annual energy 

consumption for several end uses

– Comments welcome
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Lighting submodule

Builldings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 / July 22, 2013 5

• Streamlined code and input file structure

– Flexible number of applications and application definitions, data driven

– Plan to replace torchier lamps with outdoor lighting during data update

– Developing User’s Guide for new submodule

• Revisit lighting data for change in RECS year

– Model base year data are 2009 instead of 2005 (RECS 2009)

– Residential Lighting End-Use Consumption Study: Estimation Framework 

and Initial Estimates, EERE (DNV KEMA, PNNL), December 2012

– 2010 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization, EERE (Navigant), January 2012
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Other residential updates

Builldings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 / July 22, 2013 6

• Federal subsidies separated from equipment and shell costs

– Input files and output database will separate costs and subsidies

• More use of ENERGY STAR data

– Benchmarking equipment purchases

– Benchmarking efficient housing shell adoption

• Revising housing stock formation and decay assumptions

• Likely adding a few more end uses (pool heaters and pumps, 

networking equipment) and eliminating one (external power 

supplies)

• Likely dropping residential coal consumption
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Commercial 

Builldings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 / July 22, 2013 7

• Major end-use capacity factors

– Incorporate results from parametric analysis to determine annual usage of 

heating, cooling, ventilation, water heating, cooking, lighting, and refrigeration

• Hurdle rates

– Update using latest Johnson Controls reports regarding commercial investment 

decisions

• ENERGY STAR buildings

– Investigating impacts of ENERGY STAR qualified floorspace by building type
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Both sectors

Builldings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 / July 22, 2013 8

• Comparisons to STEO

– Understanding differences and aligning assumptions to improve consistency 

between and accuracy of both modeling approaches

• AER  MER

– Annual Energy Review being discontinued with focus shifting to the existing 

Monthly Energy Review which will include annual series

• Usual annual updates

– weather data and projections

– distributed generation capacity

– interconnection limitations

• Miscellaneous end-use technology assumptions updates

– Update to previous EIA and EERE/BTO contractor reports on projected annual 

energy consumption of a variety of electric end uses
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Technology updates: miscellaneous electric loads

Builldings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 / July 22, 2013 9
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Builldings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 / July 22, 2013 10
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

For more information

Builldings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 / July 22, 2013 11

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Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy