U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Webinar

Carolyn Hronis, RECS Manager

Liz Holland, Program Analyst

Greg Lawson, Operations Research Analyst

August 29, 2023 | Washington, DC

Estimating heating and other end uses in the 2020 

Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
Agenda

• Introduction

• Consumption, expenditures, and end-use data highlights

• New ArcGIS dashboard

• Overview of methodology and end-use estimation process

• What’s next for RECS?

• Q&A

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RECS End Use Webinar, Washington, DC, 

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Introduction
RECS has three phases: the Household Survey, the Energy 

Supplier Survey, and the end-use estimation process

• RECS Household Survey 

– Measures the characteristics that contribute to 

energy consumption in primary, occupied 

housing units

– Fielded September 2020 through April 2021

– Used self-administered web and paper modes

– 18,496 completed surveys

– Completed in collaboration with IMG-Crown and 

RTI International

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RECS has three phases: the Household Survey, the Energy 

Supplier Survey, and the end-use estimation process

• RECS Energy Supplier Survey (ESS) 

– Collects household energy billing information 

directly from energy suppliers for responding 

households

– Fielded July 2021 through March 2022

– Billing records collected for almost 30,000 

energy accounts from electricity, natural gas, 

propane, and fuel oil suppliers

– Completed in collaboration with Leidos and 

Westat

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RECS has three phases: the Household Survey, the Energy 

Supplier Survey, and the end-use estimation process

• End-use estimation process 

– Took the characteristics from the RECS 

household survey and the energy bills from the 

ESS and calculated estimates for end uses. 

– Created over 100 fuel end-use combinations (for 

example, electric space heating). 

– We published a subset of these of end uses, 

including space heating, air conditioning, water 

heating, and 23 other end uses. 

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Consumption, Expenditure, and End-Use 

Highlights
In 2020, the nation’s 123.53 million households consumed 

76.8 million Btu of energy on average

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1997 2001 2005 2009 2015 2020

average 

consumption

(million British 

thermal units 

(MMBtu) per 

household)

number of primary 

occupied housing 

units (million)

RECS survey Year

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
Households in colder states consume more energy on 

average than those in warmer states

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Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
Average household energy expenditures per square foot 

were $1.04 - but varied by household characteristics

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Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
Air conditioning, space heating, and water heating were the 

primary residential electricity end uses

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Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
Total household site consumption for an end use is 

determined by share of households using it and its intensity 

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

percentage of homes with end use

5Twh Average U.S. residential end-use consumption of electricity, 2020 

kilowatthours

200 TWh

100 TWh

50 TWh

5 TWh

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
Total household site consumption for an end use is 

determined by share of households using it and its intensity 

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clothes washers

hot tub heating

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

percentage of homes with end use

5Twh Average U.S. residential end-use consumption of electricity, 2020 

kilowatthours

200 TWh

100 TWh

50 TWh

5 TWh

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
Total household site consumption for an end use is 

determined by share of households using it and its intensity 

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clothes washers

hot tub heating

EV charging

space heating

water heating

space cooling

pool pumps

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

percentage of homes with end use

5Twh Average U.S. residential end-use consumption of electricity, 2020 

kilowatthours

200 TWh

100 TWh

50 TWh

5 TWh

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
Total household site consumption for an end use is 

determined by share of households using it and its intensity 

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clothes washers

hot tub heating

EV charging

space heating

water heating

space cooling

pool pumps

refrigerators

freezers

cooking microwaves

clothes dryers

dishwashers

lighting TVs & related

AHUs for space heating AHUs for space cooling

ceiling fans

dehumidifiers

humidifiers

hot tub pumps

not elsewhere classified

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

percentage of homes with end use

5Twh Average U.S. residential end-use consumption of electricity, 2020 

kilowatthours

200 TWh

100 TWh

50 TWh

5 TWh

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
2020 RECS Dashboard
New Dashboard

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• Maps for 20 Consumption and Expenditure

estimates, by 

• Fuel

• End use

• Selected household characteristics 

Access the dashboard from the RECS website (right sidebar) or go directly to the 2020 

RECS Dashboard.

Please send us your feedback.
Dashboard Overview

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Navigation

Contact us

Expand panels

Individual state selection

Legend

Bookmark/Zoom

May need to adjust zoom 

settings for optimal viewing

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End-use Estimation Methodology

from the 2020 RECS
Because we cannot measure end-use consumption in a nationally 

representative way, we must estimate it

Use Calibration to synthesize available information:

• Expectations, quantified by Models

– Housing characteristics data

– Weather data

– Wider community knowledge

• Measurements

– Billing data from energy suppliers

• Work at the individual housing-unit level

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Billing Date kWh Cost

1/7/2020 813 $194.44

2/5/2020 627 $133.11

3/9/2020 615 $122.90

4/7/2020 758 $143.89

5/7/2020 689 $149.44

6/8/2020 703 $148.03

7/8/2020 965 $228.99

8/6/2020 1302 $335.73

9/4/2020 1467 $386.86

10/6/2020 1584 $387.18

11/5/2020 1191 $300.21

12/8/2020 963 $223.40

Total 11,677 kWh $2,754 T (°F)
Most billing data require simple proration at the beginning 

and end of 2020

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Billing data Annualization

end date Amount Cost duration factor 2020 Amt 2020 Cost 2020

12/11/2019 103 $119.15

1/8/2020 134 $150.19 28 8/28 38.29 $42.91

2/12/2020 222 $238.29 35 1 222 $238.29

3/11/2020 152 $168.21 28 1 152 $168.21

4/8/2020 99 $115.14 28 1 99 $115.14

5/13/2020 81 $97.11 35 1 81 $97.11

6/10/2020 25 $41.05 28 1 25 $41.05

7/8/2020 12 $27.80 28 1 12 $27.80

8/12/2020 1 $17.00 35 1 1 $17.00

9/9/2020 6 $21.91 28 1 6 $21.91

10/14/2020 45 $60.18 35 1 45 $60.18

11/11/2020 102 $116.11 28 1 102 $116.11

12/9/2020 136 $149.47 28 1 136 $149.47

1/11/2021 141 $154.38 33 22/33 94.00 $102.92

Totals 1,013.29 $1,198.10

Simple addition accounts for:

• 83% of electricity totals

• 76% of natural gas totals

→ both about 95% of

cases with bills

(other cases were imputed)
End-use expectations for a particular home depend on the 

information we can collect for that home

• For something small such as, a toaster, our survey asks a single question:

• Which leads to a very simple model based on an end-use’s presence:

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if TOASTER = 1

Toaster_Consumption = UECtoaster

else

Toaster_Consumption = 0
For something larger such as a refrigerator, we ask more 

questions:

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RFG1

size

RFG1

configuration

RFG1

age

RFG1

ice service
Most end-use models are now based on efficiency standards

• For example, for a refrigerator with a top-mounted freezer, automatic defrost, 

and no ice service:

– Test procedure specifies ambient room temperature of 72°F and “normal” door openings. 

– Adjusted volume is AV = Fresh Volume + 1.63 × Freezer Volume (in cubic feet). 

– Efficiency standards specify these equations for maximum annual energy use at test 

conditions, based on adjusted volume:

• Sep 2014 :: max energy use = 233.7 + 8.07 × AV kWh

• July 2001 :: max energy use = 276.0 + 9.80 × AV kWh

• Jan 1993 :: max energy use = 355 + 16.0 × AV kWh 

– End-use model also accounts for:

• Aging effects from insulation degradation

• ENERGY STAR sales data and relative performance values

• Varying ambient room temperatures

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Space conditioning end uses are the largest and most 

complicated to model

• Energy consumption depends on many aspects:

– Building size and materials 

– Building location and weather 

– Occupant behavior

– Space conditioning equipment type and fuel

• We model the heating or cooling load of a 

home based on estimated heat losses or gains 

through a season. 

• We model the energy used by particular 

equipment to meet that load based on the 

equipment’s efficiency, which we also get from 

efficiency standards.

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A simple home: calibration

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• Consider a hypothetical RECS housing unit

– Household Survey 

Only three end uses for electricity: 

• AC 

• Refrigerator 

• Coffee maker

– Administrative data

Weather data, etc. 

– Energy Supplier Survey 

Annualized billing total of 2,000 kWh

Temperature,

Dew Point

Σ = 2,000 kWh
A simple home: possible disaggregations

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• What are the end-use estimates of consumption? 

2,000 kWh

1,900 + 50 + 50 = 2,000

667 + 667 + 666 = 2,000

1,300 + 600 + 100 = 2,000 ???

...
A simple home: end-use energy expectations

• Plausible, hypothetical model estimates for the end uses:

– AC = 1,000 kWh

– Refrig = 500 kWh

– Coffee = 60 kWh

• Sum of model estimates is 1,560 kWh. 

This total is 440 kWh less than the annualized billing total of 2,000 kWh

• How to correct the model estimates so they add to 2,000 kWh? 

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A simple home: calibration prior to the 2015 RECS

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• Previous calibration: Simple normalization (proration)

– AC_norm = 1,000 kWh · ( 2,000 / 1,560 ) = 1,282 kWh

– Refrig_norm = 500 kWh · ( 2,000 / 1,560 ) = 641 kWh

– Coffee_norm = 60 kWh · ( 2,000 / 1,560 ) = 77 kWh

• These calculations add to 2,000 kWh, but does it make sense to treat all 

estimates as if they are all equally valid? No!

– Refrigerators are relatively easy to model.

– AC is difficult to model.

– Coffee makers cannot be modeled beyond presence in housing unit. 

Σ = 2,000 kWh
A simple home: specify uncertainties and correlations

• Beginning in 2015 RECS, we included uncertainties and correlations in 

calibration 

• Plausible, hypothetical estimates for the uncertainties and correlations:

– AC has 50% relative uncertainty :: 1,000 ± 500 kWh

– Refrig has 20% relative uncertainty :: 500 ± 100 kWh

– Coffee has 100% relative uncertainty :: 60 ± 60 kWh 

– All three are uncorrelated :: 

Corr( AC, Refrig ) = Corr( AC, Coffee ) = Corr( Refrig, Coffee ) = 0

– Uncertainty Propagation :: Sum = AC + Refrig + Coffee = 1,560 ± 513 kWh 

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A simple home: improved calibration in the 2015 RECS

• Uncertainties and correlations lead naturally to Minimum variance estimation.

– Weight model estimates by inverse variance-covariance matrix

– Optimization problem 

– Assume the billing total has no uncertainty

– Apply constraints to ensure no negative consumption

• Final estimates in this hypothetical problem:

– AC_cal = 1,000 kWh + ( 250,000 / 263,600 ) · 440 kWh = 1,417 kWh

– Refrig_cal = 500 kWh + ( 10,000 / 263,600 ) · 440 kWh = 517 kWh

– Coffee_cal = 60 kWh + ( 3,600 / 263,600 ) · 440 kWh = 66 kWh 

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Σ = 2,000 kWh
A simple home: two calibration solutions

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• The Minimum variance estimation and Simple normalization solutions: 

2,000 kWh

1,417 + 517 + 66 = 2,000

1,282 + 641 + 77 = 2,000

Minimum variance:

Simple normalization:
A simple home: comparing results

• Bringing the estimates together

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Modeled Previous 

Calibration

Relative 

Uncertainty

Absolute 

Uncertainty

Minimum 

Variance 

Estimate

AC 1,000 1,282 ±50% ±500 1,417

Refrig 500 641 ±20% ±100 517

Coffee 60 77 ±100% ±60 66

Total 1,560 2,000 2,000

Most of the +440 kWh correction has 

been given to AC, the end use with 

the largest absolute uncertainty. 
Billing-level 

calibration for a case 

with natural gas bills

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0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Chart Title Natural gas end-use expectations for a particular home (single-family detached in NC)

thousand British thermal units (MBtu)

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Chart Title Calibrated natural gas end-use estimates for the same home 

thousand British thermal units (MBtu)

[MMBtu] space 

heating

water 

heating

all other 

end uses total

modeled 62.4 13.8 3.6 79.8

calibrated 72.4 8.9 3.4 84.7

delta +10.0 -4.9 -0.2 +4.9
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47% 45%

4% 4%

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
What’s Next for RECS? 
We’re preparing for the 2024 RECS!

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• Data collection to begin Fall 2024

• Building on 2020 RECS successes—maintaining larger 

sample, web and mail data collection modes, estimates for 

all 50 states and DC

• Making updates to questionnaire to account for changes in 

household energy use

• Option to include small area estimates and collect data on 

multifamily buildings

• New data products including visualizations 

If you have suggestions for new RECS products or new ways to use the RECS 

data, please email our inbox: eiainfoconsumption&efficiency@eia.gov
Q&A
Contact us

www.eia.gov/recs

• Carolyn Hronis, RECS Survey Manager

• Liz Holland, Program Analyst

• Greg Lawson, Operations Research Analyst

• Email us: eiainfoconsumption&efficiency@eia.gov

39 RECS End Use Webinar, Washington, DC, 

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