U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Review of EIA oil production outlooks

For

2014 EIA Energy Conference

July 15, 2014 | Washington, DC

By

Samuel Gorgen, Upstream Analyst
Overview

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• Drilling Productivity Report performance review

– Permian

– Eagle Ford

– Bakken

• Crude oil production projections

– Short-Term Energy Outlook 

– Annual Energy Outlook 

– International tight oil outlook

• New DPR region highlights: Utica
Drilling Productivity Report review –

major tight oil plays

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DPR covers 

production trends in 

key U.S. regions

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Challenges of measuring forecast performance

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• Most well-level production data still incomplete for 2013Q4

– Changing state data lags

– Corrections impacting historical data

• Redefining geographic DPR regions (counties)

• ‘Event forecasting’ outside scope of DPR methodology
Data lags caused Permian drilling productivity to appear flat

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Permian region

million barrels per day

Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14
Underestimation - slow productivity growth compared to 

Bakken, Eagle Ford

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14

Permian new-well oil production per rig

barrels per day

Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report, June 2014
Eagle Ford – Early changes to regional boundary caused errors, 

forecasts stabilized with steady drilling activity, incr. productivity 

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Eagle Ford region

million barrels per day

Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14
Bakken – Changing completion techniques lead to mid-2013 

growth, ‘event’ related decline in Dec. 2013, trends intact

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Bakken region

million barrels per day

Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14
Production from new completions not unusually low in Dec. 

2013, decline driven by shut-ins

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Bakken month-to-month change

thousand barrels per day

Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13

Decline from existing wells

Production from new wells

Net change
December 2013: 30 mb/d of decline caused by shutting-in 

existing wells (Tioga gas plant expansion and weather-related)

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Bakken crude oil production

million barrels per day

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14

586 Wells

7,734 wells
Potential ‘events’ which limit ability to 

forecast the near future

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• Regulations (eg. ND flaring limits)

• Infrastructure maintenance/upgrades

• Winter weather

• Hurricanes

• Well spacing

• New sweet spots or drilling in non-core acreage
EIA U.S. crude oil production outlook

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History Projections History 2014 Projections

Changes in resource assumptions between the reference and 

high resource case lead to a 76% increase in oil production rates

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

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Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 and July 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook

Alaska

Tight oil

Other lower 48 states onshore

Lower 48 states offshore

STEO July 2014 U.S. crude oil projection

2014

Alaska

Tight oil

Other lower 48 states onshore

Lower 48 states offshore

Reference case High resource/improved technology case

million barrels per day million barrels per day
U.S. tight oil production – selected plays

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tight oil production

million barrels of oil per day

Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through May 2014 and 

represent EIA’s official tight oil estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Eagle Ford (TX)

Bakken (MT & ND)

Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)

Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)

Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)

Delaware (TX & NM Permian)

Yeso & Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)

Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY)

Haynesville

Marcellus

Woodford (OK)

Granite Wash (OK & TX)

Austin Chalk (LA & TX)

Monterey (CA)
Projected tight oil production in EIA’s three AEO2014 resource 

cases span the range of most other estimates 

0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

tight oil production

million barrels per day

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, and external forecasts

Reference

High Resource / Improved Technology

Low Resource

History 2012 Projections

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EIA Reference scenario shows international tight oil production 

increasing to 3 million b/d in 2025

0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

tight oil production

million barrels per day

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, IEO2014 draft

History 2012 Projections

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U.S. (AEO2014 Reference case)

World (IEO2014 draft)
New DPR region starting 8/2014: 

Utica

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Utica natural gas outpacing oil production 

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Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report
Utica natural gas production growth on par with Eagle Ford

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production growth, first 36 months since ‘start’

billion cubic feet per day

Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36

Eagle Ford (Jan. 2010)

Haynesville (Jan. 2007)

Marcellus (Jan. 2010)

Utica (Jan. 2013)
Productivity per rig increasing faster than earlier plays

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production per rig growth, first 36 months since ‘start’

thousand cubic feet per day

Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

Eagle Ford

Haynesville

Marcellus

Utica
Most Utica production growth moving on interstate pipeline 

rather than supplying intrastate demand

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Ohio natural gas

billion cubic feet per day

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Ventyx Energy Velocity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14

Utica production put on interstate pipelines

Utica production consumed in-state

Ohio other production

Ohio consumption
For more information

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U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

State Energy Profiles | http://www.eia.gov/state

Drilling Productivity Report | http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

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