U.S. Crude Oil Production ForecastAnalysis of Crude Types

May 29, 2014

Independent Statistics & Analysis

www.eia.gov

U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585
U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i

This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and 

analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are 

independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views 

in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or 

other federal agencies.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types ii

Contents 

Preface ..........................................................................................................................................................1

Summary Findings: Recent and Forecast U.S. Production by Crude Type...................................................2

Regional Analysis: Recent and Forecast Production by Crude Type.............................................................5

Regions and crude types..........................................................................................................................5

Data sources ............................................................................................................................................6

Eagle Ford and Gulf Coast: Recent and forecast production by crude type...........................................8

Permian and Southwest: Recent and forecast production by crude type............................................10

Niobrara and Rocky Mountains: Recent and forecast production by crude type.................................11

Northern Great Plains: recent and forecast production by crude type ................................................12

Midcontinent: Recent and forecast production by crude type ............................................................14

Alaska, Gulf of Mexico, Northeast, and West Coast: Recent and forecast production by crude type.15
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types iii

Tables

Table 1. Crude oil types considered in this analysis.....................................................................................7

Figures

Figure 1. U.S. crude oil production by crude type ........................................................................................2

Figure 2. U.S. crude oil imports by crude type..............................................................................................3

Figure 3. U.S. crude oil production forecast .................................................................................................6

Figure 4. Annual distribution of Eagle Ford production ...............................................................................9

Figure 5. Gulf Coast crude oil production by crude type..............................................................................9

Figure 6. Annual distribution of Permian production.................................................................................10

Figure 7. Southwest crude oil production by crude type ...........................................................................11

Figure 8. Annual distribution of Niobrara production ................................................................................11

Figure 9. Rocky Mountains crude oil production by crude type.................................................................12

Figure 10. Annual distribution of Northern Great Plains production.........................................................12

Figure 11. Northern Great Plains crude oil production by well start date .................................................13

Figure 12. Northern Great Plains crude oil production by crude type .......................................................13

Figure 13. Annual distribution of Midcontinent production ......................................................................14

Figure 14. Midcontinent crude oil production by crude type.....................................................................14

Figure 15. Alaska, Gulf of Mexico, Northeast, West Coast crude oil production .......................................15

Maps

Map 1. U.S. onshore lower-48 production regions.......................................................................................5

Map 2. Eagle Ford Shale Play .......................................................................................................................8
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 1

Preface

U.S. oil production has grown rapidly in recent years. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 

data, which reflect combined production of crude oil and lease condensate, show a rise from 5.7 million 

barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2011 to 7.4 million bbl/d in 2013. EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

projects continuing rapid production growth in 2014 and 2015, with forecast production in 2015 

reaching 9.2 million bbl/d. Beyond 2015, EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projects further production 

growth, although its pace and duration remain uncertain. Domestic production plateaus near 9.6 million 

bbl/d between 2017 and 2020, close to its historical high of 9.6 million bbl/d in 1970, in the AEO2014 

Reference case. In the AEO2014 High Oil and Gas Resource case, growth continues through the 2020s 

and into the 2030s, with production reaching 13.3 million barrels per day in 2036. 

Recent and forecast increases in domestic crude production have sparked discussion on the topic of how 

rising crude oil volumes will be absorbed. In early 2013, several commentators had suggested that nearterm production growth would be threatened unless restrictions on U.S. exports of crude oil were 

significantly relaxed. EIA’s perspective at the time was somewhat more nuanced, recognizing that 

relaxation of export restrictions was only one among several ways to absorb growing near-term flows of 

domestic production. (This Week In Petroleum, Absorbing increases in U.S. crude oil production, May 1, 

2013) 

Given the likelihood of continued growth in domestic crude production, and the recognition that some 

absorption options, such as like-for-like replacement of import streams, are inherently limited, the 

question of how a relaxation in current limitations on crude exports might affect domestic and 

international markets for both crude and products continues to hold great interest for policymakers, 

industry, and the public. In response to multiple requests, EIA is developing analyses that shed light on 

this question. 

This paper provides a short-term forecast of domestic production by crude type, supplementing the 

overall production forecast provided in STEO. Forecasts of production by crude type matter for several 

reasons. First, U.S. crude streams vary widely in quality. Second, the economics surrounding various 

options for the domestic use of additional domestic oil production are directly dependent on crude 

quality characteristics. Third, actual or potential export values also vary significantly with quality 

characteristics. 

The production forecast analysis of crude oil characteristics provided in this paper provides a starting

point for further analyses of the market outlook and the effects of a possible relaxation of existing 

restrictions on crude oil exports.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 2

Summary Findings: Recent and Forecast U.S. Production by Crude 

Type

Recent U.S. crude oil production growth has consisted primarily of lighter, sweet crude (a description of 

crude quality, as measured by API gravity and sulfur content) from tight resource formations. Roughly 

96% of the 1.8 million bbl/d growth in production between 2011 and 2013 consisted of sweet grades 

with API gravity of 40 or above.

EIA analysis of current and forecast crude oil production indicates that U.S. supply of lighter API gravity 

crude will continue to outpace that of medium and heavier crudes (Figure 1). More than 60% of EIA’s 

forecast of production growth for 2014 and 2015 consists of sweet grades with API gravity of 40 or 

above.

Figure 1. U.S. crude oil production by crude type

million barrels per day

The estimates presented in this paper reflect EIA’s current assessment based on available data. The 

quality and timeliness of well-level data on production by crude type used to develop the estimates vary 

widely across states. As part of its continuing effort to improve data on oil and natural gas production, 

EIA is now seeking public comment on a plan to expand its current collection of monthly natural gas 

production data in 6 states to include both oil and natural gas production in 21 states. The proposed 

data collection, which EIA plans to launch in 2015, would provide information on production by crude 

type. Updated estimates of regional production by crude type will also be needed as new plays start 

commercial development, because production from new plays will change the distribution of production 

by crude types in the regions where those plays are located. (Federal Register Notice,

http://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press408.cfm)

Although the topic of how future increases in domestic oil production might be absorbed into the 

market will be the topic of future analyses, data regarding recent experience along with brief qualitative 

insights regarding the future provide some important context.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

API 50+

API 45-50

API 40-45

API 40-50 sweet

API 35-40 sweet

API 35-40 sour

API 27-35 med-sour

API 27-35 sour

California

API <27 sweet

API <27 sour

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Colorado DNR, Texas RRC.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 3

Additional production of light oil over the past several years has for the most part been absorbed by 

reducing oil imports of similar grades. Of the total 1.5-million-bbl/d decline in crude oil imports between 

2011 and 2013, nearly 50% was light crude (API gravity 35+). Light crude imports fell from 1.7 million 

bbl/d in 2011 to 1.0 million bbl/d in 2013. Light crude imports averaged only 0.6 million bbl/d during the 

first two months of 2014 (Figure 2). 

Furthermore, of the total 1.5 million bbl/d decline in crude oil imports between 2011 and 2013, nearly 

25% was lighter than 40 API gravity. These imports fell from 0.6 million bbl/d in 2011 to 0.2 million 

bbl/d in 2013. Lighter than API 40 gravity crude imports averaged only 0.1 million bbl/d during the first 

two months of 2014.

Figure 2. U.S. crude oil imports by crude type

million barrels per day

Other responses to the additional production of light oil over the past several years have included 

additional crude exports, an increase in the average gravity of crude inputs to domestic refining, and 

increased refinery runs, given the recent cost advantage of U.S. refiners relative to global competitors:

• U.S. exports of crude oil increased from 47,000 bbl/d in 2011 to 120,000 bbl/d in 2013 and 

averaged 244,000 bbl/d in first-quarter 2014.

• The average API gravity of crude oil run at U.S. refineries increased from 30.2 degrees in 2008 to 

30.7 degrees in 2011 and to 30.8 degrees in 2013.

• Utilization at U.S. refineries increased from 86.2% in 2011 to 88.3% in 2013.

The dwindling amount of light crude imports available to be backed out through further like-for-like 

substitution, and the limits to increased utilization of existing refinery capacity that is already running at 

high rates, could cause absorption of further increases in domestic production to rely heavily on some 

combination of the following:

0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Light (≥ 350 API)

Heavy (< 350 API)

Note: 2014 data include January and February only.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 4

• Continued shifts in the refinery input mix, which can be enabled by investments to relieve 

constraints associated with running lighter crudes at refineries that were optimized to run 

heavier ones

• Added splitters to convert light crude into a mix of heavier fractions to feed domestic refineries 

and light products valued in other markets

• Continued increases in crude oil exports, which will depend in part on the extent of any 

relaxation of current export restrictions 

All of these options have implications for the value of existing refineries and specific refinery units, given 

the substantial investments that many domestic refiners have made since the 1990s in coking capacity 

designed to process heavy crude. They also have implications for the mix of products produced by the 

refining sector, as well as the market value of each type of crude input and refinery product output. A 

further adjustment mechanism, a change in crude production, would come into play in the event that 

the market value of a particular type of crude or lease condensate reaches a level where production is 

not economic. 

From the above discussion, it is evident that there are many issues for EIA to address in further analyses. 

But for now, we return to the focus of this paper by considering the forecast for crude production by 

type at the regional level.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 5

Regional Analysis: Recent and Forecast Production by Crude Type

Regions and crude types

EIA analyzes U.S. crude oil production according to the regions shown on the map below. The producing 

regions are mapped to contain one or more hydrocarbon-producing geologic basins. In this paper, 

production is aggregated by crude types to regional totals.

Map 1. U.S. onshore lower-48 production regions

In the May 2014 STEO, EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil production will grow from an average of 7.4

million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2013 to 9.2 million bbl/d in 2015. The methodology for developing the 

forecast is explained in the February 2013 STEO Special Analysis article. Figure 3 below shows the 

regional components of the STEO crude oil production forecast.

Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 6

Figure 3. U.S. crude oil production forecast

million barrels per day

There is no single standard classification scheme for grouping the large set of individual crude streams 

into a manageable number of categories for purposes of analysis. For this report, we categorized

domestic production into 11 crude types. As shown in Table 1, the categories are based on API gravity 

ranges and sulfur content of produced oil. In some states where well-level data are available, crude oil 

production with API gravity between 40 and 50 can be separated into groups of API 40-45 and API 45-50, 

although sulfur content cannot be determined for these groups. Although additional API gravity data 

were not available for the Bakken, industry reports indicate that most Bakken wells produce relatively 

uniform quality crude oil between 40 and 45 degrees API gravity. The crude oil produced in California, 

primarily API<27 sour, is categorized separately because it is generally produced and refined in the same 

geographic region, and it is somewhat isolated from the heavy crude market dynamics of the rest of the 

country. 

Data sources

Well-level production volumes are published by almost all states and are generally readily available, but 

the API gravity and sulfur content of that production are reported only by a few states. EIA has 

previously analyzed the characteristics of oil production at the basin level for the Annual Energy 

Outlook, and assigned crude types to production from different basins according to Table 1 below. In 

order to estimate the amount of production of different crude types for the STEO regional forecasts, the 

distribution of crude production from each region from the AEO2014 was applied to the STEO forecast 

for 2011 through 2015. Using well-level API gravity data where available – from the Railroad 

Commission of Texas for Eagle Ford and Permian production, and from the Colorado Department of 

Natural Resources for Niobrara production – Gulf Coast, Southwest, and Rocky Mountain regional 

production estimates were improved using data from wells completed as recently as March 2014.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Alaska

Gulf of Mexico

N. Great Plains

West Coast

Rocky Mountains

Southwest

Midcontinent

Gulf Coast

Northeast

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 7

Table 1. Crude oil types considered in this analysis

Chart Color Crude Oil Type API Gravity (degrees)

Sulfur 

Content (%) a.k.a.

API 50+ API>=50 <0.3

*API 45-50 45<=API<50 <0.3

*API 40-45 40<=API<45 <0.3 Light Sweet

API 40-50 sweet 40<=API<50 <0.3

API 35-40 sweet 35<=API<40 <0.3

API 35-40 sour 35<=API<40 <1.1 Light Sour

API 27-35 med-sour 27<=API<35 <1.1 Medium Medium Sour

API 27-35 sour 27<=API<35 >=1.1 Medium Sour

California API<27 1.1-2.6

API<27 sweet API<27 <1.1 Heavy Sweet

API<27 sour API<27 >=1.1 Heavy Sour

*Specified only where additional well-level API gravity data are available.

The quality and timeliness of well-level data on production by crude type used to develop the estimates 

vary widely across states. As part of its continuing effort to improve data on oil and natural gas 

production, EIA is now seeking public comment on a plan to expand its current collection of monthly 

natural gas production data in 6 states to include both oil and natural gas production in 21 states. The 

proposed data collection, which EIA plans to launch in 2015, would provide information on production 

by type. In addition to updates reflecting better data, updated estimates of regional production by 

crude type will likely be needed as new plays start commercial development. Production from new 

plays will change the distribution of production by crude types in the regions where those plays are 

located.

This paper estimates oil production by crude type as it would be delivered from well-site or lease 

storage tanks. Once the oil enters transportation and distribution systems, it may be commingled with 

other crude types (e.g., in rail cars or pipelines) or otherwise blended to capture economic opportunities 

before being delivered to the refinery. A simple example would be to blend relatively lower-value 

API<27 with API 50+ oil if the price of selling API 35-40 oil exceeded the cost of buying and blending the 

inputs. To the extent that such blending occurs, the volume of some crude oil types received by 

refineries would be different from those estimated from the well-level analysis in this paper. 

A final point to consider involves the distinction between the very light grades of lease condensate

(which are included in EIA’s oil production data) and hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) that are produced 

from the wellhead as gas but are converted to liquids once separated from methane at a natural gas 

processing plant. These hydrocarbons include ethane, propane, butanes, and hydrocarbons with five or 

more carbon atoms – referred to as pentanes plus, naphtha, or plant condensate. Plant condensate can 

also be blended with crude oil, which would change both the distribution and total volume of oil 

received by refineries.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 8

Eagle Ford and Gulf Coast: Recent and forecast production by crude type

The Eagle Ford is somewhat unique compared to other key oil-producing plays as there are three 

relatively distinct “windows” of the play. The formation becomes deeper moving from northwest to 

southeast, creating an oil window, a condensate window, and a dry gas window. Since 2010, producers 

in the Eagle Ford have moved steadily towards areas with more liquids, as prices have continued to 

favor oil over natural gas (see Today In Energy, February 10, 2014).

Map 2. Eagle Ford Shale Play

Source: EIA, http://www.eia.gov/oil_gas/rpd/shaleusa9.pdf.

This shift is also reflected in Figure 4, where a large percentage of Eagle Ford production in 2011 came 

from wells with reported API gravity greater than 50 degrees, but a greater share of the production 

growth in the subsequent two years came from new wells with reported API gravity between 40 and 50 

degrees. The shift to producing oil rather than natural gas will continue in 2014 and 2015 based on the 

forecast for crude oil prices to remain high relative to natural gas prices.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 9

Figure 4. Annual distribution of Eagle Ford production

Eagle Ford makes up nearly all the tight oil production in the Gulf Coast region. Adding in the residual 

tight oil production from Haynesville (approximately 50,000 bbl/d) and the stable non-tight Gulf Coast 

oil production (approximately 450,000 bbl/d), distributed into crude types by the Annual Energy Outlook

projections, results in the total Gulf Coast production forecast shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Gulf Coast crude oil production by crude type

million barrels per day

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

API 50+

API 45-50

API 40-45

API 35-40

API 27-35

API<27

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Texas RRC.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

API 50+

API 45-50

API 40-45

API 35-40 sweet

API 35-40 sour

API 27-35 med-sour

API 27-35 sour

API <27 sweet

API <27 sour

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Texas RRC.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 10

Permian and Southwest: Recent and forecast production by crude type

Virtually all oil production in the Southwest region comes from the Permian basin. Permian oil 

production averaged 1.3 million bbl/d in 2013, compared to 100,000 bbl/d from the rest of the 

Southwest region. EIA analysis of Railroad Commission of Texas well records shows production by crude 

type changing rapidly, as new drilling in the basin increasingly targets the various stacked tight oil 

formations, rather than the conventional oil formations that have been developed for decades (Figure 

6).

Figure 6. Annual distribution of Permian production

EIA expects this trend to continue in 2014 and 2015, as Permian oil production is forecast to reach an 

annual average 1.8 million bbl/d in 2015, and other Southwest production is forecast to fall to 66,000 

bbl/d in 2015, for a total of 1.9 million bbl/d oil production in the Southwest region (Figure 7).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

API 50+

API 45-50

API 40-45

API 35-40

API 27-35

API<27

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Texas RRC.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 11

Figure 7. Southwest crude oil production by crude type

million barrels per day

Niobrara and Rocky Mountains: Recent and forecast production by crude type

The Rocky Mountains region is a significant producer of natural gas, although natural gas production has 

been declining in recent years as high oil prices and recent drilling success in the Niobrara formation 

have steered producers towards oil production. The distribution of Niobrara area oil production (Figure 

8) reflects this, showing a significant but diminishing percentage of API 50+ production, which is

commonly produced from wells targeting natural gas. Over the forecast period, production of oil with 

API gravity between 35 and 50 degrees expands to more than 60% of total oil production. Rocky 

Mountains oil production surpasses an average of 500,000 bbl/d in 2014 (Figure 9).

Figure 8. Annual distribution of Niobrara production

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

API 50+

API 45-50

API 40-45

API 35-40 sweet

API 35-40 sour

API 27-35 med-sour

API 27-35 sour

API <27 sweet

API <27 sour

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Texas RRC.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

API 50+

API 45-50

API 40-45

API 35-40

API 27-35

API<27

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Colorado DNR.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 12

Figure 9. Rocky Mountains crude oil production by crude type

million barrels per day

Northern Great Plains: recent and forecast production by crude type

Oil production growth in the Northern Great Plains region is expected to continue primarily from the 

Bakken. Although additional API gravity data were not available from the North Dakota Industrial 

Commission, industry reports indicate that Bakken crude oil consistently measures between 40 and 45 

degrees API gravity. As such, the Annual Energy Outlook API 40-50 percentage of Northern Great Plains 

oil production was recategorized as API 40-45 for this analysis.

Figure 10. Annual distribution of Northern Great Plains production

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

API 50+

API 45-50

API 40-45

API 35-40 sweet

API 35-40 sour

API 27-35 med-sour

API 27-35 sour

API <27 sweet

API <27 sour

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Colorado DNR.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

API 50+

API 40-45

API 35-40 sweet

API 35-40 sour

API 27-35 med-sour

API 27-35 sour

API <27 sweet

API <27 sour

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 13

Bakken oil production began increasing in 2009 and 2010, but there was nearly 300,000 bbl/d of legacy 

oil production from conventional reservoirs in the Northern Great Plains region. Figure 11, which shows

oil production grouped by the year wells started producing, provides context to the distribution of oil 

production by crude type in Figure 10.

Figure 11. Northern Great Plains crude oil production by well start date

million barrels per day

Northern Great Plains crude oil production is forecast to average 1.3 million bbl/d in 2015, almost 80% 

of which has API gravity between 40-45 degrees (Figure 12).

Figure 12. Northern Great Plains crude oil production by crude type

million barrels per day

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

After 2010

2009-2010

Before 2009

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

API 50+

API 40-45

API 35-40 sweet

API 35-40 sour

API 27-35 med-sour

API 27-35 sour

API <27 sweet

API <27 sour

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 14

Midcontinent: Recent and forecast production by crude type

Well-level API gravity data from Oklahoma and Kansas were not available to examine the crude oil 

quality from formations such as the Granite Wash and Woodford. Based on the Short-Term Energy 

Outlook production forecast and the Annual Energy Outlook crude type distribution, Midcontinent crude 

oil production is forecast to increase from 560,000 bbl/d in 2013 to 625,000 bbl/d in 2015, with API 

gravity 40-50 crude oil making up 55% of the 2015 estimate (Figures 13 and 14).

Figure 13. Annual distribution of Midcontinent production

Figure 14. Midcontinent crude oil production by crude type

million barrels per day

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

API 50+

API 40-50

API 35-40 sweet

API 35-40 sour

API 27-35 med-sour

API 27-35 sour

API <27 sweet

API <27 sour

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo.

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

API 50+

API 40-50

API 35-40 sweet

API 35-40 sour

API 27-35 med-sour

API 27-35 sour

API <27 sweet

API <27 sour

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo.
May 2014

U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types 15

Alaska, Gulf of Mexico, Northeast, and West Coast: Recent and forecast 

production by crude type

In the Annual Energy Outlook crude type estimates, all Alaska and Gulf of Mexico oil production is 

assumed to be API gravity 27-35 degrees and medium sour. Northeast crude oil production consists of 

approximately 30% API 27-35 medium-sour and 60% API 35-40 sour. The residual production is API 35-

40 sweet. West Coast region production, coming from California, is primarily API<27 sour. Per the 

“Regions and crude types” discussion above, California production is categorized by its own crude type. 

Based on forecasts of annual average production from 2013 to 2015 in the Short-Term Energy Outlook: 

• Alaska production declines from 515,000 bbl/d to 450,000 bbl/d

• Gulf of Mexico production increases from 1.3 million bbl/d to 1.6 million bbl/d

• Northeast production increases slightly from 100,000 bbl/d to 110,000 bbl/d

• West Coast production increases from 600,000 bbl/ to 670,000 bbl/d (Figure 15)

Figure 15. Alaska, Gulf of Mexico, Northeast, West Coast crude oil production

million barrels per day

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

West Coast -

 California

Gulf of Mexico -

 API 27-35 med-sour

Alaska -

 API 27-35 med-sour

Northeast -

 API 35-40 sweet

Northeast -

 API 35-40 sour

Northeast -

 API 27-35 med-sour

forecast

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo.