WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

August 8, 2014

MEMORANDUM FOR: John Conti

Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis

Jim Diefenderfer

Office Director

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables

Analysis

Paul Holtberg

Team Leader

Analysis Integration Team

FROM: Electricity Analysis Team

SUBJECT: Summary of First AEO 2015 Electricity Working Group 

Meeting held on July 31, 2014

ATTENDEES: Krall, Eric

Diefenderfer, Jim

†Aniti, Lori

Bowman, Michelle

Hodge, Tyler

Mellish, Mike

Slater-Thompson, Nancy

Marcy, Cara

Lowenthal-Savy, Danielle

Bredehoeft, Gwen

Martin, Laura

Shoesmith, Jordan

Johnson, Slade

Schramm, Kate

Napolitano, Sam

Booth, Bill

*Colbert, Christopher (NuScale)

*Nethercutt, Elliot (North American Electric Reliability 

Corporation)

*Satsangi, Ann (U.S. DOE: Office of Clean Coal and 

Carbon Management)

*Van Brunt, Michael (Covanta)

*Bergman, Aaron (U.S. DOE Office of Energy Policy and 

Systems Analysis)

*Boyd, Erin (U.S. DOE Office of Energy Policy and 

Systems Analysis)

†*Young, Garry (Entergy)

†*Arguello, Ed (Colorado Springs Utilities)
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

†*Crawford, Chase (Southern Company)

†*Pickenpaugh, Gavin (National Energy Technology 

Laboratory)

†*Gueln, Gurcan (University of Texas)

†*Sandvik, Richard (NuScale)

†*Marshea, John (NuScale)

†*Wood, Frances (OnLocation)

†*Durbin, Kenneth (OnLocation)

†*Showalter, Sharon (OnLocation)

†*Suggs, Peggy (Edison Electric Institute)

†*Coleman, Leslie (National Manufacturers Association)

†*Neubauer, Max (American Council for an Energy 

Efficient Economy)

†*Novak, Seth (American Council for an Energy Efficient 

Economy)

†*Cooper, Adam (Edison Foundation)

†*Wright, Evelyn 

* Non-EIA Attendees

† Webex Attendees

Presentation topics included a review of AEO2014 results, and the main regulatory 

assumptions that will be changed in the AEO2015. The presentation described changes to 

AEO cycle, noting that this year will be a light year with only limited model changes.

AEO2016 will be a full AEO cycle. The presentation included a discussion of regulations,

centered on AEO2015 updates to include the Cross State Air Pollution Rule (if the D.C. 

Circuit Court lifts the stay on the rule in time), and updated modeling of imports into 

California consistent with CA SB 1368. Staff commented that EPA's 111b and 111d 

proposed rules will not be included because they are not final rules, but are being 

watched closely. 

Specific issues raised by participants included the following topics

Modeling Coal Plant Scrubber Systems

A participant asked if EIA models the usage of specific chemicals associated with 

scrubbers on coal plants. Staff responded that the model does not capture this level of 

detail.

Unplanned Nuclear Plant Retirements

A participant asked about the reasons for the removal of the generic unplanned nuclear 

retirements assumption used in AEO2014. Staff responded that assumptions are reevaluated each year, and with no additional nuclear retirements announced recently, staff 

determined that the exogenous retirement assumption to represent market uncertainty 

should be relaxed. 

Electricity Pricing
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

A participant asked about a chart that illustrated a dip in retail electricity prices between 

2020 and 2024 in the AEO2014 Reference case. Staff responded that in general the prices 

are correlated with natural gas prices, and followed up that in the specific period of 

interest there was a retail price dip of about 2 mills/kWh resulting from a slight dip in 

distribution prices as build-outs of smart meters and other distribution infrastructure 

upgrades trail off in the model.

Distributed Generation

A participant asked about upcoming report on utility scale distributed generation (small 

generators). Staff responded that the study will be similar to past reports on central 

station technologies and capital costs, but will focus on small generators.

Municipal Solid Waste Generation

A participant asked if EIA will develop a levelized cost report for municipal solid waste

plants. Staff responded that there are no specific plans to do so, but that the electricity 

analysis team would be happy to talk further about information of interest to the 

participant.

Form EIA 860 Reporting

A participant asked when the Form EIA-860 preliminary release of 2013 data would take 

place. Staff responded that there is delayed reporting from previous years but there are 

monthly updates. The survey cycle is delayed because of the OMB approval process. 

The early release for the Form EIA-860 data is currently scheduled for 12/19/14.

CSPAR Modeling

A participant asked about restoring CSAPR for AEO2015, and whether it was likely the 

model would be frozen before the stay on CSAPR is lifted by the D.C. Circuit Court. 

Staff responded that the freeze date for the model is in early September, 2014.