U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Renewable Electricity in the Annual 

Energy Outlook 2014

For

Renewable Electricity Working Group 

AEO2014 Second Meeting

September 26, 2013

Christopher Namovicz and Gwen Bredehoeft,

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team
Agenda

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013 2

• Status of AEO2014 and future development plans

• Data and model updates

– PTC expiration update

– Capital costs 

– Transmission

– 860 (planned capacity) data

– Polysys integration

– Spinning reserves 

– RPS updates

• Preliminary Results for the AEO2014 Reference case

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
Status of AEO2014

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013 3

• Most planned model and data updates are now completed. 

• We expect that the Reference case for the AEO2014 will be 

frozen by mid-October.

• Side cases are expected to be frozen by the end of 2013. 

We anticipate completing the “No Sunset” and “Extended 

Policies” side cases per their usual specification. We will also 

include a “low-cost renewables” side-case but are still 

developing the exact scenario. 

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
Changes in release cycles for EIA’s AEO and IEO

4

• To focus more resources on rapidly 

changing energy markets and how 

they might evolve over the next few 

years, the U.S. Energy Information 

Administration is revising the 

schedule and approach for 

production of the International 

Energy Outlook (IEO) and the 

Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).

• Starting with IEO2013, which was 

released in July, 2013, EIA adopted 

a two-year production cycle for 

both the IEO and AEO.

• Under this approach, a full edition 

of the IEO and AEO will be 

produced in alternating years and 

an interim, shorter edition of each 

will be completed in the “off” years.

2014 2015

International 

Energy 

Outlook

Interim Edition will be 

released in mid 2014, focusing 

on the liquids projection, which 

is used as part of the AEO2014. 

Summary tables and a short 

analysis will be included. 

Full Edition will be released 

in the spring 2015

Annual 

Energy 

Outlook

Full Edition will be released 

in spring 2014, including 

analysis of energy issues and 

many alternative scenarios. 

Interim Edition will be 

released in late 2014 or early 

2015 and will only include the 

Reference, Low and High 

Economic Growth, and Low 

and High Oil Price cases. The 

shorter version will include 

tables for these cases and 

short discussions. 

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
Data Updates

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013 5

• Capacity updates are still being finalized. EIA’s statistics team is 

working to get the most up-to-date information on some smaller PV 

generators and planned coal retirements.

• PTC effective expiration dates adjusted to either 2015 (wind, MSW) 

or 2016 (other PTC-eligible fuels) based on updated IRS guidance.

• Capital cost assumptions were not updated for the AEO2014. EIA 

commissioned a cross-technology review of capital and O&M costs 

for the AEO2013, and will continue to use those. Costs are still 

consistent with published data such as LBNL’s “Tracking the Sun”. 

• Inter-regional transmission transfer capability limits were updated.

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
Model Updates

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013 6

• Integration of POLYSYS with NEMS to create modelinteractive supply curves for certain types of biomass.

• Spinning reserve requirement accounts for operational 

impacts of maintaining operating reliability reserves

– Done in part to better represent the general cost of maintaining system 

reliability

– Also improves accounting for impact of intermittent generators

• RPS updates – several small adjustments, no repeals. EIA 

incorporated Colorado’s changes (strengthening muni/co-op 

requirement and removing bonus credits for in-state 

generation) into the AEO2014.

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
Nuclear, coal, and renewable capacity additions are down in the latter 

part of the projection, primarily displaced by new gas capacity; 

however, total capacity is generally higher in the AEO2014.

7

Ref2014 – Ref2013 Ref2014 - Aeo2013HR8

Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs ref2013.d102312a, aeo2013hr8.d021213a, ref2014.d092313a

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coal Natural Gas Nuclear

Renewable Total

billion kilowatthours

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coal Natural Gas Nuclear

Renewable Total

billion kilowatthours

Change in Generation between Ref2014 and AEO2013 Runs

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
The projection for near-term increase in wind generation is 

similar to the Aeo2013hr8 case – however, there is less growth 

after 2030.

8

Total Wind Electricity Generation

Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs ref2013.d102312a, aeo2013hr8.d021213a, ref2014.d092313a

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

billion kwh

Ref2013 Aeo2013HR8 Ref2014

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
AEO2014 solar generation grows less over the projection period 

than in the AEO2013, particularly in the electric power sector.

9

Total Solar (PV and Thermal) Electricity Generation

Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs ref2013.d102312a, aeo2013hr8.d021213a, ref2014.d092313a

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

billion kwh

Ref2013 Aeo2013HR8 Ref2014

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
Geothermal growth is similar to AEO 2013.

10

Total Geothermal Electricity Generation

Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs ref2013.d102312a, aeo2013hr8.d021213a, ref2014.d092313a

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

billion kwh

Ref2013 Aeo2013HR8 Ref2014

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
Hydro projections continue to show very modest growth, but 

continues to be the leading source of renewable generation 

through 2040.

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013 11

Total Hydropower Electricity Generation

Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs ref2013.d102312a, aeo2013hr8.d021213a, ref2014.d092313a

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

billion kwh

Ref2013 Aeo2013HR8 Ref2014

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
Biomass generation nearly triples by 2040 in the Ref2014 case, due to 

growth in cofiring and industrial/refining CHP generation. However, 

Ref2014 near-to-midterm cofiring growth is less rapid than Ref2013.

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013 12

Total Biomass Electricity Generation

Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs ref2013.d102312a, aeo2013hr8.d021213a, ref2014.d092313a

0

50

100

150

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

billion kwh

Ref2013 Aeo2013HR8 Ref2014

0

50

100

150

2011201420172020202320262029203220352038

end-use dedicated biomass cofiring

billion kWh

Ref2013

0

50

100

150

2011201420172020202320262029203220352038

end-use dedicated biomass cofiring

billion kWh

Aeo2014HR8

0

50

100

150

2011201420172020202320262029203220352038

end-use dedicated biomass cofiring

billion kWh

Ref2014

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
Most of the decline in growth occurs in several key Western regions: 

WECC California, WECC SW (Arizona/New Mexico), WECC 

Rockies (Colorado) and SPP North (Kansas/Missouri).

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013 13

Growth in Renewable Capacity by Region (2011-2040), AEO2013 v. AEO2014

Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs ref2013.d102312a, aeo2013hr8.d021213a, ref2014.d092313a

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ref2013 Aeo2013HR8 Ref2014

gigawatts

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
Although national natural gas prices are similar in the AEO2013 and 

AEO2014 through much of the projection, differences are more 

pronounced and start earlier in California and other Western regions.

Delivered Natural Gas Prices to the Electric 

Power Sector, National

Delivered Natural Gas Prices to the Electric 

Power Sector, WECC California

Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs ref2013.d102312a, aeo2013hr8.d021213a, ref2014.d092313a

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

$10.00

Ref2013 AEO2013-ATRA Ref2014

2012 $/MMBtu

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

$10.00

WECC California-Ref2013 WECC California-Ref2014

2012 $/MMBtu

14

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
Capacity builds in California are significantly reduced as a 

result of increased regional imports 

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

September 26, 2013 15

billion kilowatthours

Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs ref2013.d102312a, aeo2013hr8.d021213a, ref2014.d092313a

Interregional Imports into WECC California

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Ref 2014 Ref 2013 AEO2013hr8

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change
Contacts

Presenter name, Presentation 

location, Presentation date 16

• J. Alan Beamon, Director, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and 

Renewables Analysis; joseph.beamon@eia.gov

• Robert Eynon, Team Leader, Renewable Electricity Analysis Team, 

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis; 

robert.eynon@eia.gov

• Christopher Namovicz, Senior Renewable Energy Analyst; 

christopher.namovicz@eia.gov

• Team Members:

– Gwen Bredehoeft, gwendolyn.bredehoeft@eia.gov

– Michelle Adams Bowman, michelle.bowman@eia.gov

– Danielle Lowenthal-Savy, danielle.lowenthal-savy@eia.gov

– Fred Mayes, fred.mayes@eia.gov

Working Draft. Do Not Quote, Cite or Circulate.

Results Subject to Change