July 30, 2013

MEMORANDUM FOR: JOHN CONTI

ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR FOR ENERGY 

ANALYSIS

 PAUL HOLTBERG 

TEAM LEADER

ANALYSIS INTEGRATION TEAM

JAMES TURNURE

DIRECTOR

OFFICE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND EFFICIENCY 

ANALYSIS

FROM: BUILDINGS CONSUMPTION & EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS 

TEAM

SUBJECT: First AEO2014 Buildings Sector Working Group Meeting 

Summary (presented on 07-22-2013)

Attendees: James Berry (EIA OES)

Stephanie Burns (IMT)

Gwendolyn Bredehoeft (EIA OEA)

Paul Holtberg (EIA OEA)

Colin McMillan (NREL)

Danielle Mayclin (EIA OES)

Attending by Phone: Justin Baca (SEIA)

Bill McNary (EIA OES)

Alan Swenson (EIA OES)

Elena Alschuler (DOE EERE)

Mark Friedrichs (DOE EERE)

JD Doliner (Alliance for Green Heat)

Xiaojing Sun (Georgia Tech)

Marilyn Brown (Georgia Tech)

Frances Wood (OnLocation)

Robert Lorand (SAIC)

Olga Livingston (PNNL)

Sameer Kwatra (ACEEE)

Presenters: Erin Boedecker

Owen Comstock

Kevin Jarzomski

David Peterson

Steve Wade
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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

The buildings presentation provided a discussion of the projects underway and anticipated for 

AEO 2014. An overview of the projects discussed is included in the presentation materials 

provided as a separate attachment.

Specific discussion/questions:

1. Discussion of the update and expansion of miscellaneous end-use loads (MELs) 

included questions about what share of “other” electricity use will the new MELs 

assumptions affect and whether pool heaters will be represented by fuel source. Many 

of the uses are already represented in NEMS with the new MELs report providing an 

update to previous estimates and projected trends so the additional share of electricity 

consumption carved out of “other” will not be that large. Some of the uses that 

weren’t previously covered include commercial video displays and lab refrigerators 

and residential computer networking equipment. Residential pool pumps and pool 

heaters comprise one of the new categories provided in the report. The MELs report 

only covers electric loads meaning at this point only electric pool pumps and heaters 

will be represented. EIA hopes to eventually specifically include pool heaters that 

use other fuel sources, but for AEO2014 these heaters will remain part of the “other” 

category for each fuel.

2. Additional discussion regarding MELS included questions about the elimination of 

the end use category for external power supplies and what causes the large difference 

between 2005 and 2009 estimates for rechargeable devices. External power supplies 

are still covered in the model under their parent devices to avoid the potential for 

double-counting consumption. The rechargeable device category is one of the most 

difficult to characterize and estimate due to the wide variety in both type and use of 

these devices. Also, a portion of the category is covered by the standard limiting 

standby power to one watt.

3. Discussion of the pending update to commercial hurdle rates generated questions 

about what new reports are being used in addition to the Johnson Controls reports and 

how hurdle rates affect adoption of solar photovoltaic (PV). The new reports EIA 

mentioned in the presentation are the most recent annual indicator surveys from 

Johnson Controls. The hurdle rate distribution applies to end-use equipment while 

adoption of PV and other distributed generation (DG) technologies is handled with a 

cash-flow calculation and penetration function. Further information on the DG 

modeling methodology was requested and was sent after the meeting. Georgia Tech 

will also share some analysis work they have done on modeling PV costs and 

penetration.

4. The discussion of DG led to questions about how interconnection limitations are 

developed. The limitations apply a state-level score to new construction based on 

each state’s policies regarding DG with state scores aggregated to the Census division 

level for model input.

5. EIA was contacted several days after the meeting by an attendee requesting 

clarification regarding EIA’s investigation of ENERGY STAR commercial 
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floorspace. EPA’s ENERGY STAR building website has a downloadable buildings 

locator spreadsheet that tracks buildings by type, location, label year, year 

constructed, and floorspace. EIA is going to analyze how this information might be 

useful in projecting some portion of building shell improvements or possibly service 

demand reductions over time. The impacts of ENERGY STAR buildings are 

inherently included in the AEO’s historical consumption data, though EIA has no 

explicit projections going forward.

Complete Listing of Invitees:

Ackerly, John (Alliance for Green Heat)

Alex, Aileen (DOE)

Alschuler, Elena (DOE EERE)

Amann, Jennifer (ACEEE)

Ames, Mark (ASHRAE)

Anderson, David (PNNL)

Antypas, Yanna (EIA OEA)

Azevedo, Ines (Carnegie Mellon)

Baca, Justin (SEIA)

Bahei-Eldin, Ahmed GE)

Barbour, Edward (Navigant)

Barker, Breton Nmn (DOE EERE)

Bell, Mathias (Rocky Mountain Institute)

Belzer, Dave (PNNL)

Bergman, Aaron (DOE PI)

Berry, James (EIA OES)

Bredehoeft, Gwendolyn (EIA OEA)

Brodrick, James (DOE EERE)

Broene, Thomas (EIA)

Brown, Austin (NREL)

Brown, Marilyn (Georgia Tech)

Burns, Stephanie (IMT)

Carmichael, Robert (Navigant)

Carroll, Ryan (Alliance for Green Heat)

Chase, Alex (Energy Solutions)

Cogan, Jonathan (EIA OC)

Conti, John (EIA OEA)

Cureg, Edgardo (EIA OES)

Cymbalsky, John H (DOE EERE)

Daniels, David (EIA OEA)

deLaski, Andrew (Appliance Standards Awareness Project)

Dion, Jerry (DOE EERE)

Dirks, James A (PNNL)

Doliner, JD (Alliance for Green Heat)
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Drury, Easan (NREL)

Feldman, Dave (NREL)

Fireovid, James (SAIC)

Friedrichs, Mark (DOE EERE)

Garg, Rishi (Office of the People’s Counsel-DC)

Gruenspecht, Howard (EIA)

Harris, Jeff (ASE)

Harvey, Stephen (EIA OES)

Henry, Dave (DOC)

Hodson, Elke (DOE)

Holtberg, Paul (EIA OEA)

Hunter, David (EPRI)

Kaarsberg, Tina (DOE EERE)

Kelso, Jordan (D&R International)

Kwatra, Sameer (ACEEE)

Laitner, Skip (Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates)

Larsen, John (DOE PI)

Leifman, Michael (GE)

Lewis, Katie (EIA OES)

Livingston, Olga V (PNNL)

Lorand, Robert (SAIC)

Lu, Ruey-Pyng (EIA OES)

Majersik, Cliff (IMT)

Margolis, Robert (NREL)

Marnay, Chris (LBNL)

Mayclin, Danielle (EIA OES)

Mayes, Fred (EIA OEA)

McDonald, Sean (PNNL)

McNary, William (EIA OES)

Meyer, John (SAIC)

Michaels, Joelle (EIA OES)

Mignone, Bryan NMN (DOE PI)

Narayanan, Raj (GE)

Neff, Shirley (EIA)

Neubauer, Max (ACEEE)

Nicholls, Andrew (PNNL)

Niebling, Charles (Alliance for Green Heat)

Nordman, Bruce (LBNL)

O'Brien, Eileen (EIA OES)

Olsen, Jay (EIA OES)

Palmer, Karen (RFF)

Pearson, Gina (EIA)

Ramea, Kalai (UC Davis)

Rosenquist, Gregory J. (LBNL)
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Schuur, Arah (DOE EERE)

Steinberg, Daniel (NREL)

Stellberg, Sarah (IMT)

Stokes, Kem (DOC)

Swenson, Alan (EIA OES)

Taylor, Cody (DOE EERE)

Ulrey, Peri (NGSA)

Utzman-O'Neill, Diane (HHT)

Wang, Joy (Georgia Tech)

Wang, Yu (Georgia Tech)

Wiser, Ryan (LBNL)

Wood, Frances (OnLocation)

Yeh, Sonia (UC Davis)