U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

John Maples, Patricia Hutchins, Nicholas Chase 

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis 

October 9, 2012 | Washington, DC 

Annual Energy Outlook 2013:

Modeling Updates in the Transportation Sector 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Overview 

2

• Modeling updates made to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Reference case 

• Light-duty vehicle technology updates 

• Heavy-duty natural gas vehicles 

• Preliminary results (Working group presentation for discussion 

purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change) 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case 

updates

3

• Light-duty vehicle base year 

– Updated to 2010 for base year vehicle attributes such as price, horsepower, weight, tank 

size, fuel economy 

• Light-duty vehicle technology* 

• Light-duty vehicle flex-fuel 

– Updated vehicle choice parameters so that projected sales reflect historical trends 

• Light-duty vehicle VMT 

– Historical data updated from Federal Highway Administration and Macroeconomic module 

– Updated VMT model coefficients based on new historical VMT data 

• Heavy-duty natural gas vehicles* 

• Historical data update from Annual Energy Review 2011 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Light-duty vehicle technology 

4

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Light-duty vehicle technology list update 

based on latest information 

5

• Primarily drawn from joint EPA/NHTSA Final Rule: 2017 and Later 

Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and 

Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards 

• Additional information taken from: 

– Joint Rulemaking to Establish CAFE and GHG Emissions Standards, MY 2012-2016

– Average Fuel Economy Standards, Passenger Cars and Light Trucks, MY 2011, Final 

Regulatory Impact Analysis 

– Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles, National Academies, 

2010

– Wards Automotive 

• We are working with EPA and NHTSA to address differences in cost 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
6

• Technology list expanded to include 86 technologies 

– Vehicle: Mass Reduction I to V; Aerodynamics I and II; Tires I and II; Low Drag Brakes; 

Secondary Axle Disconnect 

– Transmission: 6 speed Manual; 6, 7, and 8 speed Automatic; Dual Clutch Automated 

Manual; High Efficiency Gearbox; Aggressive Shift Logic I and II; Early Torque Converter 

Lockup; Continuously Variable Transmission 

– Accessories/Electrification: Electric Power Steering; Improved Accessories I and II; 12V 

Micro Hybrid; Integrated Starter Generator Mild Hybrid 

– Engine (most by cylinder and cam profile): Low Friction Lubricants; Engine Friction 

Reduction I and II; Cylinder Deactivation; Variable Valve Timing (ICP, CCP, DCP); Variable 

Valve Lift (DVVL, CVVL); Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection; Turbocharging and 

Downsizing I, II, and III with cooled EGR 

Light-duty vehicle technology—the specifics 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Light-duty vehicle technology—the specifics 

7

• Technology update includes attributes and engineering notes: 

– Fuel economy (Final Rule 2017-2025 and Lumped Parameter Model) 

– Cost (derived from Final Rule 2017-2025 and others) 

– Horsepower adjustment 

– Weight adjustment 

– Synergistic fuel economy and supersedes engineering notes 

• Base year (2010) market penetration for technologies taken from 

Wards Automotive and EPA/NHTSA data 

• Technology learning similar to Final Rule 2017-2025

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
8

Technology 2010 

(or first year)

2017 2025 2040

Unit Body Construction 125 124 124 124

Mass Reduction I-1.5% reduction 0.08/lb** 0.08/lb 0.08/lb 0.08/lb

Mass Reduction II-3.5% reduction 0.18/lb** 0.18/lb 0.18/lb 0.17/lb

Mass Reduction III-10% reduction 0.52/lb** 0.52/lb 0.51/lb 0.50/lb

Mass Reduction IV-15% reduction 0.78/lb** 0.78/lb 0.77/lb 0.74/lb

Mass Reduction V-20% reduction 0.90/lb** 0.90/lb 0.89/lb 0.86/lb

Aero I-10% Cd reduction 60 54 50 47

Aero II-20% Cd reduction 254 226 213 198

Tires I-10% Crr reduction 7 6 6 5

Tires II-20% Crr reduction 73 73 45 39

Low Drag Brakes 74 74 74 74

Secondary Axle Disconnect 121 108 101 94

Light-duty vehicle technology cost, passenger car (2010 dollars) 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
9

Technology 2010 

(or first year)

2017 2025 2040

6 Speed Manual 320 285 268 248

Aggressive Shift Logic I 41 36 34 32

Aggressive Shift Logic II 34 34 30 27

Early Torque Converter Lockup 37 33 31 29

High Efficiency Gearbox 251 250 219 201

5 Speed Automatic 130 116 109 101

6 Speed Automatic 338 301 283 263

7 Speed Automatic 502 446 420 390

8 Speed Automatic 667 593 558 518

Dual Clutch Automated Manual 71 63 59 55

CVT 314 279 263 244

Light-duty vehicle technology cost, passenger car (2010 dollars) 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
10

Technology 2010 

(or first year)

2017 2025 2040

Low Friction Lubricants 4 4 4 4

Engine Friction Reduction I-4 cyl 59 59 59 59

Engine Friction Reduction I-6 cyl 89 88 88 88

Engine Friction Reduction I-8 cyl 118 117 117 117

Engine Friction Reduction II-4 cyl 126 125 125 125

Engine Friction Reduction II-6 cyl 185 184 184 184

Engine Friction Reduction II-8 cyl 244 243 243 243

Cylinder Deactivation-6 cyl 234 208 196 182

Cylinder Deactivation-8 cyl 263 234 220 204

Light-duty vehicle technology cost, passenger car (2010 dollars) 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
11

Technology 2010 

(or first year)

2017 2025 2040

VVT I-OHC Intake Cam Phasing-4 cyl 55 49 46 43

VVT I-OHC Intake Cam Phasing-6 cyl 111 99 93 86

VVT I-OHC Intake Cam Phasing-8 cyl 111 99 93 86

VVT II-OHV Coupled Cam Phasing-6 cyl 55 49 46 43

VVT II-OHV Coupled Cam Phasing-8 cyl 55 49 46 43

VVT II-OHC Coupled Cam Phasing-4 cyl 55 49 46 43

VVT II-OHC Coupled Cam Phasing-6 cyl 111 99 93 86

VVT II-OHC Coupled Cam Phasing-8 cyl 111 99 93 86

VVT III-OHC Dual Cam Phasing-4 cyl 113 101 95 88

VVT III-OHC Dual Cam Phasing-6 cyl 245 218 205 190

VVT III-OHC Dual Cam Phasing-8 cyl 245 218 205 190

Light-duty vehicle technology cost, passenger car (2010 dollars) 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
12

Technology 2010 

(or first year)

2017 2025 2040

VVL I-OHV Discrete-6 cyl 282 251 236 219

VVL I-OHV Discrete-8 cyl 404 359 338 314

VVL I-OHC Discrete-4 cyl 195 173 163 151

VVL I-OHC Discrete-6 cyl 282 251 236 219

VVL I-OHC Discrete-8 cyl 404 359 338 314

VVL II-OHV Continuous-6 cyl 1439 1280 1205 1118

VVL II-OHV Continuous-8 cyl 1573 1399 1317 1222

VVL II-OHC Continuous-4 cyl 291 259 244 226

VVL II-OHC Continuous-6 cyl 535 476 448 416

VVL II-OHC Continuous-8 cyl 584 520 489 454

Stoichiometric GDI-4 cyl 331 294 277 257

Stoichiometric GDI-6 cyl 498 443 417 387

Stoichiometric GDI-8 cyl 598 532 501 465

Light-duty vehicle technology cost, passenger car (2010 dollars) 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
13

Technology 2010 

(or first year)

2017 2025 2040

OHV to DOHC TBDS-I4 (from V6), 

VVT, VVL, SGDI 1731 1540 1450 1345

OHV to DOHC TBDS I-V6 (from 

V8), VVT, VVL, SGDI 2623 2334 2198 2038

SOHC to DOHC TBDS I-I4 (from 

V6), VVT, VVL, SGDI 1035 921 867 804

SOHC to DOHC TBDS I-V6 (from 

V8), VVT, VVL, SGDI 2009 1787 1683 1561

DOHC TBDS I-I3 (from I4), VVT, 

VVL, SGDI 1145 1019 959 890

DOHC TBDS I-I4 (from V6), VVT, 

VVL, SGDI 935 832 783 726

DOHC TBDS I-V6 (from V8), VVT, 

VVL, SGDI 1915 1704 1604 1488

OHV to DOHC TBDS II-I4 (from 

V6), VVT, VVL, SGDI 1985 1784 1671 1550

OHV to DOHC TBDS II-V6 (from 

V8), VVT, VVL, SGDI 3059 2750 2576 2389

SOHC to DOHC TBDS II-I4 (from 

V6), VVT, VVL, SGDI 1309 1176 1102 1022

SOHC to DOHC TBDS II-V6 (from 

V8), VVT, VVL, SGDI 2463 2213 2074 1923

Light-duty vehicle technology cost, passenger car (2010 dollars) 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
14

Technology 2010 

(or first year)

2017 2025 2040

DOHC TBDS II-I3 (from I4), VVT, 

VVL, SGDI 1414 1271 1191 1105

DOHC TBDS II-I4 (from V6), VVT, 

VVL, SGDI 1211 1089 1020 946

DOHC TBDS II-V6 (from V8), VVT, 

VVL, SGDI 2372 2132 1997 1852

OHV to DOHC TBDS III-I4 (from 

V6), VVT, VVL, SGDI, EGR 2542 2527 2217 2036

OHV to DOHC TBDS III-I4 (from 

V8), VVT, VVL, SGDI, EGR 2004 1993 1748 1605

SOHC to DOHC TBDS III-I4 (from 

V6), VVT, VVL, SGDI, EGR 1959 1948 1708 1569

SOHC to DOHC TBDS III-I4 (from 

V8), VVT, VVL, SGDI, EGR 1727 1717 1506 1383

DOHC TBDS III-I3 (from I4), VVT, 

VVL, SGDI, EGR 2045 2033 1783 1638

DOHC TBDS III-I4 (from V6), VVT, 

VVL, SGDI, EGR 1875 1864 1635 1501

DOHC TBDS III-I4 (from V8), VVT, 

VVL, SGDI, EGR 1629 1620 1421 1304

Light-duty vehicle technology cost, passenger car (2010 dollars) 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
15

Technology 2010 

(or first year)

2017 2025 2040

Electric Power Steering 134 119 112 104

Improved Accessories I 109 97 92 85

12V Micro Hybrid w/EPS and IACC 801 510 447 411

Improved Accessories II 161 145 136 126

ISG Mild Hybrid w/EPS and IACC 5239 3334 2953 2698

Light-duty vehicle technology cost, passenger car (2010 dollars) 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

16

thousand 2010 dollars 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

Average lower light-duty vehicle costs lower than AEO2012 CAFE 

case due to inclusion of new technology inputs 

AEO2012 CAFE

AEO2013 Preliminary 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

Change between 2010 and 2025

AEO2012 CAFE: $3,100 (+12%) 

AEO2013: $2,000 (+8%) 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Heavy-duty natural gas vehicles 

17

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Updated heavy-duty natural gas vehicle fuel 

economics 

18

• Incremental costs based on engine and tank costs, tank costs 

based on annual vehicle miles traveled (based on analysis 

completed for the AEO2012 HD NGV side case) 

• New estimates of heavy-duty vehicle VMT distribution based on 

2002 VUIS data for new and 2 year old vehicles 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Updated heavy-duty natural gas incremental 

vehicle cost and fuel economics 

19

• Natural gas vehicle incremental cost based on engine and tank cost 

Vehicle 

Class

Engine/Nonstorage tank cost$/dge tank 

capacity cost

Fuel

type

Class 3 $1,417 $340 CNG

Class 4-6 $19,750 $450 LNG

Class 7-8 $33,875 $475 LNG

Source: Cummins/Westport 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
20

VMT

Group

Annual

miles

Vehicle Cost ($)

Class 

3

Class 

4-6

Class 

7-8

1 12,554 9,750 34,150 49,075

2 27,855 9,750 34,150 49,075

3 46,021 9,750 40,000 55,250

4 62,276 12,008 44,500 60,000

5 85,000 15,872 54,400 70,450

6 110,000 20,124 60,250 76,625

7 125,000 22,675 69,250 86,125

8 147,500 26,501 69,250 86,125

9 167,500 29,902 69,250 86,125

10 187,500 33,303 69,250 86,125

11 212,500 37,555 69,250 86,125

Natural gas vehicle tank sized according to 

vehicle miles traveled 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
21

VMT distribution of fleet operated class 7-8 

vehicles 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

AEO2012

AEO2013 Preliminary

VMT Category (thousand miles) 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Class 3-6

Class 7-8

22

thousands 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

Heavy-duty natural gas vehicle sales 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
23

VMT

Group

Annual

miles

(thousand)

Non-fleet Fleet

Class 

3

Class 

4-6

Class 

7-8

Class 

3

Class 

4-6

Class 

7-8

1 0-19.9 69% 40% 15% 84% 52% 13%

2 20-39.9 31% 44% 17% 9% 34% 14%

3 40-59.9 0% 8% 11% 2% 7% 7%

4 60-79.9 0% 3% 12% 5% 4% 8%

5 80-99.9 0% 1% 14% 0% 2% 12%

6 100-119.9 0% 2% 7% 0% 1% 16%

7 120-139.9 0% 0% 13% 0% 0% 18%

8 140-159.9 0% 1% 6% 0% 0% 6%

9 160-179.9 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2%

10 180-199.9 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2%

11 200+ 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2%

Decision to purchase natural gas based on VIUS 2 years or 

newer travel distribution 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
24

AEO2013 diesel fuel price increasingly higher than natural gas 

prices, offering opportunity for heavy-duty natural gas vehicles 

0

2

4

6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

diesel

LNG retail 

LNG fleet 

CNG retail 

CNG fleet 

 Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

2011 $ per diesel gallon equivalent 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
0

2

4

6

8

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Heavy-duty vehicle natural gas consumption across projection 

due to difference in natural gas and diesel fuel prices 

25

Quadrillion Btu

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

Motor Gasoline 

History Projections 

Natural Gas 

Diesel 

2011

92%

8%

6%

77% 

17%

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Reference case preliminary results 

26

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or 

cite as results are subject to change.

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Oil price lower than AEO2012, rises steadily over projection 

period 

27

annual average price 

real 2011 $ per barrel 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

History 2011 Projections 

AEO2013 Preliminary 

AEO2012 Reference 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
0

1

2

3

4

5

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Motor gasoline price lower than AEO2012, rises steadily over 

projection, real cost of driving declining 

28

real 2011 $ per gallon 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

History 2011 Projections 

AEO2013 Preliminary 

AEO2012 Reference 

5

10

15

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Real cost of driving/mile 

1987 cents/mile 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

GDP slightly lower across projection compared to 

AEO2012 

29

trillion chain-weighted 2005 dollars 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

History Projections 2011

AEO2013 Preliminary 

AEO2012 Reference 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
10

20

30

40

50

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Total value of industrial shipments is higher across projection 

relative to AEO2012 

30

trillion chain-weighted 2005 $ 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

History Projections 2011

AEO2013 Preliminary 

AEO2012 Reference 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
0

5

10

15

20

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Real disposable personal income slightly lower than AEO2012 

across projection period; unemployment is lower

31

thousand chain-weighted 2005 $ 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

History Projections 2011

AEO2013 Preliminary 

AEO2012 Reference 

0

5

10

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Unemployment (%) 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Transportation energy remains flat across projection, with lightduty demand declining and heavy-duty demand growing 

32

Quadrillion Btu

Rail 

Air

History Projections 

Heavy-duty vehicles 

Light-duty vehicles 

Marine 

2011

5%

63%

2%

10%

20%

51%

30%

11%

5%

2%

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Transportation delivered energy consumption by fuel shows 

declining motor gasoline demand 

33

Quadrillion Btu

History 2011 Projections 

60 % Motor gasoline

Diesel

Jet fuel 

Residual E85 CNG/LNG 

22 %

11%

3 %

28%

13 %

5 %

2 %

3 %

46 %

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

34

miles per gallon 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

History 2010 Projections 

Summary of standards 

2012-2016: Includes CAFE standard from Final Rule 

through MY 2016 

2017-2025: Includes CAFE standard from Final Rule 

through 2021 and Augural standards through 

2025

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

New light-duty vehicle fuel economy reaches almost 49 mpg by 2040, 

higher than AEO2013 due to recently enacted standards 

AEO2012 Reference 

AEO2013 Preliminary 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Gasoline micro hybrid vehicles grow as a share of new sales, 

conventional gasoline remains largest share 

35

U.S. light car and truck sales 

millions 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Gasoline-only vehicles without 

hybrid technologies

E85 flex fuel

Micro hybrid electric

Diesel

Hybrid electric

Plug-in hybrid and all-electric

Gaseous and fuel cell

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
36

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Conventional 

Gasoline

Flex-Fuel Gasoline 

Micro Hybrid

HEV TDI Diesel EV PHEV

AEO2012

AEO2013 Preliminary

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

Sales shares of new light-duty vehicles in 2035, 

in two cases 

AEO 2013 Sales: 

Conventional Gasoline: 9.0 million 

Gasoline Micro Hybrid: 4.9 million 

Flex-Fuel: 1.6 million 

Hybrid Electric: 0.9 million 

TDI Diesel: 0.5 million

Plug-in Hybrid Electric: 0.3 million 

Electric: 0.1 million 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
0

1

2

3

4

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Light-duty vehicle miles traveled lower, heavy-duty vehicle 

travel higher than AEO2012

37

trillion vehicle miles travelled 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

History Projections 2011

AEO2013 Preliminary 

AEO2012 Reference 

0

100

200

300

400

500

1995 2010 2025 2040

Heavy-duty vehicles 

Light-duty vehicles

billion vehicle miles 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Light-duty vehicle miles traveled per licensed driver increases 

across projection; lower than AEO2012 

38

thousand vehicle miles travelled 

Working group presentation for discussion purposes. Do not quote or cite as results are subject to change. 

History Projections 2011

AEO2013 Preliminary 

AEO2012 Reference 

1.0

1.1

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Number of vehicles per 

licensed driver 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
A look ahead: future modeling updates 

39

• Light-duty vehicle battery electric vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, EVs) 

– BatPaC model developed by Argonne National Lab 

– Battery Ownership Model (BOM) developed by NREL 

– Develop battery and non-battery systems cost modeling depending on power/energy ratio 

specific to different vehicle configurations and range 

• Further study and update to heavy-duty vehicle technology 

attributes and penetration and heavy-duty vehicle market 

• Inclusion of natural gas as a fuel option for rail and inclusion of 

stock model for locomotives 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Questions/Feedback 

40

John Maples 

(202)-586-1757 john.maples@eia.gov

Patricia Hutchins 

(202)-586-1029 patricia.hutchins@eia.gov

Nicholas Chase 

(202)-586-8851 nicholas.chase@eia.gov

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates and Preliminary Results 

Washington, D.C., October 2012 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION 

PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS 

ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE