WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

September 21, 2020

MEMORANDUM FOR: Angelina LaRose

Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis

FROM: Jim Turnure

Director, Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis 

SUBJECT: Summary of AEO2021 Transportation Working Group held on Thursday, 

September 17, 2020

This memorandum summarizes the presentation given at the Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) 

Transportation Working Group meeting as well as the ensuing discussion. The Transportation Working 

Group presentation highlights the planned historical transportation data updates and planned 

transportation modeling updates for the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used for the U.S. 

Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) AEO2021 Reference case, as directly relate to the 

Transportation Demand Module (TDM). After the presentation, meeting participants commented on 

additional model or data issues. The presentation for this meeting is available in a separate document 

on EIA’s website.

Model updates (AEO2021)

EIA staff presented planned updates in two separate categories:

• Historical data—bus and passenger rail travel, light-duty vehicle stock and technology menu 

data, heavy-duty vehicle stocks, vehicle miles traveled for light-duty vehicles and motorcycles.

• Model—new light-duty vehicle technologies and fuel economy standards; fuel choice for transit 

bus, recreational boating fuel use, aviation fuel efficiency methodology, stock model, and travel 

demand equations; and COVID-19 impacts across all of the transportation modes.

Highlights from the presentation relate to planned updates, which include model improvements to 

capture new light-duty vehicle technologies and fuel economy standards, fuel choice in public transit, 

aviation model updates, COVID-19 impacts on transportation, and historical data updates across all of 

the transportation modes.

Discussion

During the discussion, participants’ questions mainly focused on modeling updates.

Model updates:

EIA staff received a general question about what regulatory cases and side cases we plan to release. EIA 

staff explained that AEO2021 is a light year, in which we complete only a core set of side cases that 

comply with current laws and regulations unless we receive a formal request to report on proposed 

regulations. EIA staff also explained that a Reference case for NEMS represents current legislation, 

environmental regulations, and international protocols, including recent government actions for which 

implementing regulations were available.
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Attendees asked for clarification on whether the November 2020 Presidential election results will 

change the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule, and more specifically, on whether it is 

feasible to show side cases with past regulations. EIA staff responded that the AEO2021 Reference case 

will reflect current laws and regulations, including the SAFE law and regulation. If requested, EIA will 

perform analysis on proposed policy. 

Attendees asked about EIA’s efforts to incorporate California’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) requirement

for heavy- and medium-duty trucks because several states are considering adopting the rule. EIA staff 

did not have a response and will look further into the requirement to determine whether the regulation 

is enforceable and whether California requires a federal waiver to enforce the enacted ZEV sales 

requirements.

Participants asked if we are planning any modeling changes for forecasting plug-in electric vehicle sales 

because AEO2020 projections for sales are less than those projected by most publicly available sources 

and not in line with manufacturer announcements. EIA staff explained technology reflected in AEO2020 

is derived from the 2012 Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards. EIA is working with staff 

from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Volpe Center to understand inputs used for the Volpe 

Center’s transportation model to develop technology and cost updates to align EIA’s transportation 

model with the March 2020 SAFE regulation. EIA also plans to implement a battery cost update that will 

affect projected sales of electric vehicles as a result of lower batter cost and better battery performance. 

The result of the updates are unknown because the updates are not complete.

Attendees asked for clarification on the impact of decreased business travel on the price of leisure 

passenger trips. Specifically, attendees asked whether the price of normal passenger trips might 

increase based on a scenario where business travel is initially reduced as a result of COVID-19 mitigation 

efforts and subsequent cost-saving business strategies. EIA staff explained that in previous years EIA 

could obtain air travel data with breakouts for business and passenger travel; however, those data

breakouts are no longer available. Modeling the impacts of COVID-19 mitigation efforts is providing an 

additional challenge because limited data are available.

Participants also asked about aviation model updates. For example, how is EIA managing the response 

to COVID-19 in our aviation forecast? Is there is an estimate of when a vaccine will be available? Will 

travel behavior permanently change as a result of the pandemic? EIA staff explained that the current 

model, which is based on gross domestic product per capita, has been updated to capture the shortterm travel impact from COVID-19 mitigation efforts. EIA will continue to adjust the model to reflect 

new information and data. COVID-19 vaccine availability is, hopefully, a short-term issue that EIA’s 

Short-Term Energy Outlook incorporates into its forecasts. Next, in regard to a permanent change in 

travel behavior, most experts forecast a permanent change. For example, International Air Transport 

Association (IATA) projects a baseline of 15% lower global revenue passenger miles in their projection. 

EIA has implemented long-term model updates that reflect similar changes in projected air travel 

behavior.

Attendees asked if we were aware of any changes or updates to information pertaining to biofuels, E85 

consumer choice, and E85 retail outlets. EIA staff responded that infrastructure for E85 retail outlets are 

reflected in the Liquid Fuels Market Module (LFMM). Consumer choice and final demand for 

transportation fuel are reflected in the TDM. The current consumer choice algorithm in TDM was 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

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developed using revealed preference data EIA received from states that had high E85 sales. EIA would 

welcome any new or current consumer behavior information so we can update NEMS. Participants also 

suggested that EIA should not only look at a price relationship between ethanol and gasoline but also 

consider the geographical distribution of ethanol blends. In addition, EIA should look at recent 

investments in new production capacity within the biodiesel and renewable diesel fuels.
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Attendees

Guests (Webex/phone)

Alicia Birky NREL

Daniel Bizer EPA

Kevin Bolon EPA

Austin Brown UC DAVIS

Christopher Carr C2E2 Strategies

Ernest Carter USDA

Angela Cullen EPA

John Davies DOT

Stacy Davis ORNL

Dominic DiCicco Ford

Ben Ellies EPA

Carl Fulper EPA

Katya Garcia-Israel DOT

Dave Gohlke ANL

Kevin Green DOT

Michael Hartrick Alliance for Automotive Innovation

Whitney Herndon Rhodium Group

Ken Howden DOE

Aaron Hula EPA

Darek Imadi OnLocation

Raphael Isaac Energetics

Bryan Just API

Ken Katz DOT

Ryan Keefe DOT

Ben King Rhodium Group

Jim Kliesch Honda

Hanna Kolus Rhodium Group

Amanda Levin NRDC

Jennifer Li DOE

Zhenhong Lin ORNL

Paul Machiele EPA

Avi Mersky ACEEE

John Meyer Leidos

Tiffany Mo EPA

Robin Moran EPA

Anthony Neam EPA

Steven O’Malley Leidos

David Pace DOT

David Pickeral Virginia Tech University

Hannah Pitt Rhodium Group

Steve Plotkin ANL

Kara Podkaminer DOE

Chris Ramig EPA

Michael Schaal OnLocation

Michael Shelby EPA
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Gurpreet Singh DOE

Eric Singley USACE

Tom Stephens ANL

Kevin Stork DOE

Jennie Thomas USACE

Wyatt Thompson University of Missouri

Barbara Treat Infrastructure World

Clayton Vernon Sunoco

Jacob Ward DOE

Jarrett Whistance University of Missouri

Frances Wood OnLocation

Steven Yates USACE

Starla Yeh NRDC

Joann Zhou ANL

Arthur Yip NREL

EIA Attendees (Webex/phone) 

Caroline Campbell

Nicholas Chase

Jim Diefenderfer

Michael Dwyer

Mindi Farber-DeAnda

John Maples

Mark Schipper

Estella Shi

Nicholas Skarzynski

Michael Stanley

John Staub

Russell Tarver

James Turnure