June 2018

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies 3

APPENDIX B
FINAL

EIA - Technology Forecast Updates –

Residential and Commercial Building 

Technologies – Advanced Case

Presented to:

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Prepared by: 

Navigant Consulting, Inc.

1200 19 St. NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

April 2018
Review Draft

DISCLAIMER

This presentation was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States 

Government. Neither the United States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their 

employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, 

express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or 

usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use 

would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, 

process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily 

constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government 

or any agency, contractor or subcontractor thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed 

herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency 

thereof. 

April 2018

1
Review Draft

Objective 4

Methodology 5

Advanced Case Assumptions 6

Definitions 7

Market Transformation 8

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (North) 9

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (Rest of Country) 10

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces 13

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers 16

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers 19

Residential Electric Furnaces 22

Residential Electric Resistance Heaters 24

Residential Central Air Conditioners (North) 26

Residential Central Air Conditioners (South) 27

Residential Air Source Heat Pumps 30

Residential Ground Source Heat Pumps 34

Residential Room Air Conditioners 36

Residential Portable Air Conditioners 39

Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps 41

Residential Cordwood Stoves 43

Residential Pellet Wood Stoves 47

Residential Gas-Fired Water Heater 52

Residential Oil-Fired Water Heater 55

Residential Electric Resistance Water Heater 57

Residential Electric Heat Pump Water Heater 59

Residential Solar Water Heater 62

Residential Instantaneous Water Heater 64

Residential Refrigerator/Freezer (Top-Mount) 66

Residential Refrigerator/Freezer (Side-Mount) 67

Residential Refrigerator/Freezer (Bottom-Mount) 68

Residential Freezers (Chest) 72

Residential Freezers (Upright) 73

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops and Stoves 76

Residential Natural Gas Ovens 77

Residential Clothes Dryers (Electric) 80

Residential Clothes Dryers (Gas) 81

Residential Clothes Washers (Front-Loading) 84

Residential Clothes Washers (Top-Loading) 85

Residential Dishwashers 88

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Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces 91

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces 93

Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters 95

Commercial Electric Boilers 97

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers 99

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers 101

Commercial Centrifugal Chillers 103

Commercial Reciprocating Chillers 105

Commercial Screw Chillers 107

Commercial Scroll Chillers 109

Commercial Gas Fired Chillers 111

Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners 113

Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Driven Rooftop Air 

Conditioners 115

Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps 117

Commercial Ground Source Heat Pumps 119

Commercial Gas-Fired Water Heater 121

Commercial Electric Resistance Water Heater 124

Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater 127

Commercial Oil-Fired Water Heater 129

Commercial Electric Booster Water Heater 131

Commercial Gas-Fired Booster Water Heater 132

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heater134

Commercial Solar Water Heater 136

Commercial Gas Range with Griddle and Oven 138

Commercial Electric Range with Griddle and Oven139

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinet 141

Data Sources A-1

References B-1

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4

The objective of this study is to develop baseline and projected 

performance/cost characteristics for residential and commercial 

end-use equipment.

• Installed base in 2012 (for commercial products) or 2009 and 2015 (for residential 

products) and current market (2017)

— Review of literature, standards, installed base, contractor, and manufacturer 

information.

— Provide a relative comparison and characterization of the cost/efficiency of a 

generic product.

• Forecast of technology improvements that are projected to be available through 2050

— Review of trends in standards, product enhancements, and Research and 

Development (R&D).

— Projected impact of product improvements and enhancement to technology.

Objective

The performance/cost characterization of end-use equipment developed in this 

study will assist EIA in projecting national primary energy consumption.
Review Draft

5

Input from industry, including government, R&D organizations, and 

manufacturers, was used to project product enhancements concerning 

equipment performance and cost attributes.

• Technology forecasting involves many uncertainties.

• Technology developments impact performance and cost forecasts.

• Varied sources ensure a balanced view of technology progress and the probable timing 

of commercial availability.

• Only currently published efficiency standards and regulations are considered when 

predicting technology developments, unpublished future regulatory action is not 

predicted.

• All costs are shown in 2017 dollars (2017$).

• Ranges, when given, represent the span of typical values for a given parameter (e.g.. 

installed cost for equipment meeting the federal standard) not the highest and lowest 

available on the market. 

Methodology
Review Draft

6

The Advanced Case and Reference Case both assume current level of effort 

for standards. However, the Advanced Case assumes an increase in market 

incentive and federal R&D. The general approach for the Advanced Case is 

outlined below. 

The Advanced Case takes into account future changes to product groups such as:

• Product or component changes that are fully developed, but have not yet been 

commercialized. 

• Expected incremental improvements in existing technologies due to increased R&D

• Increased adoption of existing higher efficiency technology options due to increased 

market incentives

The Advanced Case did not include future changes to product groups that are due to:

• Prototype technology changes or products that are in preliminary research that may 

have performance improvements, but have only been demonstrated in theoretical 

calculations.

Advanced Case Assumptions
Review Draft

7

The following tables represent the current and projected efficiencies for residential and 

commercial building equipment ranging from the installed base in 2012 for commercial 

products (or 2009 and 2015 for residential products) to the highest efficiency equipment 

that is expected to be commercially available by 2050, assuming incremental adoption. 

Below are definitions for the terms used in characterizing the status of each technology.

• 2009/2012/2015 Installed Base: Efficiency values are for those units installed and “in use” 

in that year. Cost values are for the typical new unit sold in that year.

• 2017 Current Standard: the minimum efficiency required by current standards.

• Typical: the average, or “typical” product being sold in the particular timeframe. This 

may represent either the shipments-weighted average product performance or the most 

common product on the market.

• ENERGY STAR: the minimum efficiency required to meet the ENERGY STAR criteria, 

where applicable.

• Mid-Level: middle tier high-efficiency product available in the particular timeframe.

• High: the product with the highest efficiency available in the particular timeframe.

Definitions
Review Draft

8

Market Transformation

The market for the reviewed products has changed since the analysis 

performed in 2013 and is reflected in the efficiency and cost 

characteristics.

• In some categories the typical new product purchased today is significantly more efficient than the 

average product in the installed base in 2012 (comm.) or 2015 (res.):

— Residential sector: central air conditioners and heat pumps, water heaters

— Commercial sector: gas-fired and oil-fired boilers, oil-fired storage water heaters

• More stringent Federal standards have taken effect for the following products:

— Residential furnaces in 2013 and 2015

— Residential room air conditioners in 2014

— Residential water heaters in 2015

— Residential central air conditioners, air-source heat pumps in 2015

— Residential and commercial water-source heat pumps in 2015

— Commercial oil-fired storage water heaters in 2015

• ENERGY STAR continues to raise the bar with revised criteria for:

— Residential furnaces in 2013

— Residential room air conditioners, central air conditioners, and central heat pumps in 2015

— Residential dishwashers in 2016

— Residential and commercial boilers in 2014 and 2016, respectively

— Residential and commercial water heaters in 2017 and 2013, respectively
Review Draft

9

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (North)

* Electric Consumption accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the furnace fan, draft inducer, and the ignitor. In some high 

efficiency products, this component also includes auxiliary equipment, such as condensate pumps and heat tape. 

** Average life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). In the EERE 2015 TSD, a sensitivity analysis offers 16 to 27 

years as the low and high range of the product lifetime for gas-fired furnaces.

Return to Table of Contents

Typical efficiency level and product costs increase to ENERGY STAR levels. 

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

(North)

High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

AFUE (%) 80 80 80 92 95 99 92 99 95 99 95 99 95 99

Electric Consumption 

(kWh/yr)* 548 522 470 470 384 418 322 334 307 334 307 334 307 334

Average Life (yrs)**

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 840 860 890 1,190 1,320 1,620 1,340 1,620 1,480 1,620 1,480 1,620 1,480 1,620

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 2,000 2,020 2,050 2,610 2,740 3,040 2,760 3,040 2,890 3,040 2,890 3,040 2,890 3,040

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Review Draft

10

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (Rest of Country)

* Electric Consumption accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the furnace fan, draft inducer, and the ignitor. In some high 

efficiency products, this component also includes auxiliary equipment, such as condensate pumps and heat tape.

** Average life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). In the EERE 2015 TSD, a sensitivity analysis offers 16 to 27 

years as the low and high range of the product lifetime for gas-fired furnaces.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

(South)

High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

AFUE (%) 80 80 80 80 90 99 80 99 80 99 80 99 80 99

Electric Consumption 

(kWh/yr)* 548 522 470 470 408 418 329 334 329 334 329 334 329 334

Average Life (yrs)** 

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 840 860 890 890 1,150 1,620 1,080 1,620 1,080 1,620 1,080 1,620 1,080 1,620

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 2,000 2,020 2,050 2,050 2,560 3,040 2,240 3,040 2,240 3,040 2,240 3,040 2,240 3,040

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

Same as Reference Case
Review Draft

• Current Federal standards for non-weatherized gas furnaces:

— AFUE ≥ 80%

• ENERGY STAR criteria for gas furnaces:

— South: AFUE ≥ 90%

— North: AFUE ≥ 95%

— Furnaces must be equipped with electronically commutated fan motor and have less than or equal to 2.0% air 

leakage

• Most efficient unit currently available: 98.7% AFUE. The current market is nearly evenly split between noncondensing units (AFUE≤82%) and condensing units (AFUE≥90%).

• The highest efficiency furnaces (~99% AFUE) employ electronically commutated motors (ECMs) and can fully 

modulate rather than cycling on and off. Because they modulate, there is an increase in total fan-on time. Because the 

fan operates for more total hours and consumes more energy, the annual electricity consumption is higher for these 

products

• Non-condensing AFUE levels for natural gas top out at around 82%; above this level, the potential for exhaust gas 

condensation increases. This condensate is corrosive and requires cost restrictive corrosion resistant venting.

• High-efficiency condensing furnaces typically have high-grade stainless steel (AL 29-4C) heat exchangers. 

• Many are available as direct vent and sealed combustion systems, which do not use room air for combustion, but 

instead draws combustion air directly from outdoors. 

• Depending on the location of the home, piping materials in use, and other considerations, condensing furnaces may 

need an acid neutralizer and/or lift pump for the condensate.

• Furnaces may contain permanent split capacitor (PSC) or brushless permanent magnet (BPM) fan motors. The 2015 

Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furnace Fans Final Rule requires that all furnaces use BPM fans. The 

type of motor effects the electrical consumption of the furnace as well as the SEER/EER of the associated air 

conditioner.

• Advanced Case: Increased incentives move typical efficiency products to ENERGY STAR levels by 2030. The current price 

difference between 92% AFUE and 95% AFUE products is not large. It is expected that with more market incentives, 

manufacturers will produce more products that can be ENERGY STAR certified at the 95% level.

11

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

12

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces

Annual shipments peaked at 3.5 million units in 2005 then declined 

each year until 2009 and leveled off at about 2.25 million units. Since 

2012, shipments have increased steadily.

Source: AHRI (http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Furnaces-Historical-Data.aspx) 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

13

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105

AFUE (%) 80 83 83 83 85 97 83 97 85 97 85 97 85 97

Electric Consumption 

(kWh/yr)* 490 477 477 477 466 410 477 410 466 410 466 410 466 410

Average Life (yrs)**

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

2,150 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,250 2,700 2,200 2,700 2,250 2,700 2,250 2,700 2,250 2,700

2,350 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,950 3,450 2,900 3,450 2,950 3,450 2,950 3,450 2,950 3,450

Total Installed Cost ($)

2,700 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,950 4,350 2,750 4,350 2,950 4,350 2,950 4,350 2,950 4,350

3,400 5,500 5,500 5,500 5,750 8,550 5,500 8,550 5,750 8,550 5,750 8,550 5,750 8,550

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 70 70 70 70 70 200 70 200 70 200 70 200 70 200

Return to Table of Contents

Typical efficiency level and product costs increase to ENERGY STAR levels.

* Electric Consumption accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the furnace fan, draft inducer, and the ignitor. In some high 

efficiency products, this component also includes auxiliary equipment, such as condensate pumps and heat tape.

**Average Life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). The EERE 2015 TSD offers a Weibull distribution with an 

average value of 26.5 years and a 25%-75% confidence interval range of 19.7 to 33.1 years.
Review Draft

• Current Federal standards:

— AFUE ≥ 83%

— ≤ 11 watts of electrical power when in standby and off modes (non-weatherized models only)

• ENERGY STAR criteria: AFUE ≥ 85%

• Since the latent heat content of oil is lower than that for either propane or natural gas, oil-fired 

appliances can typically operate at a higher AFUE rating than comparable gas-fired appliances 

before condensation issues arise.

• Most efficient available: 96.7% AFUE – condensing units with tiny market share (<1%), due to 

market acceptance issues. 

• Condensate from condensing oil furnaces is typically even more corrosive than that of gas-fired 

systems due to the higher sulfur content in fuel oil. Hence, condensing oil furnaces also likely 

require the use of an acid neutralizer. By 2019, ultra-low sulfur heating oil will be required in most 

northeastern states; this will reduce corrosion effects.

• Oil-fired furnaces, like gas-fired furnaces, achieve condensing conditions through the use of a 

secondary heat exchanger. Typically, these secondary heat exchangers use a high-grade stainless 

steel (AL 29-4C).

• Sooting is an issue for all oil-fired appliances, but secondary heat exchangers, with their narrow 

passages, are even more prone to be plugged by soot. Because of this, condensing oil furnaces 

typically require frequent cleaning and maintenance.

• Advanced Case: Increased incentives move typical efficiency products to ENERGY STAR levels by 

2030. The current typical efficiency product is at 83% AFUE, while ENERGY STAR is at 85%, with 

only a small difference in costs. It is expected that with more market incentives, manufacturers will 

produce more products that can be ENERGY STAR certified at the 85% level.

14

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

15

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces

Annual shipments declined rapidly after 2004, likely due at least in 

part to an increase in fuel oil prices, which more than tripled from 

2002 to 2008. Since 2012 shipments have largely levelled off.

Source: AHRI (http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Furnaces-Historical-Data.aspx) 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

16

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers

*Average Life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). In the EERE 2015 TSD, an average of 26.5 years is calculated 

for gas-fired hot water boilers, with a low and high range from 20 to 30 years respectively.

** In 2021, new energy conservation standards for Residential Boilers will take effect. These projections reflect the 2021 minimum AFUE requirement for 

residential oil-fired boilers, 84%. However, by 2020, the majority of the gas-fired boiler market is expected to be condensing, with a minimum efficiency of 

90% AFUE.

Note: Water boilers considered. Steam boilers also exist, but make up only about 15% of the market.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 105 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

AFUE (%) 80 82 82 82 90 97 90 97 94 97 94 97 94 97

Average Life (yrs)*

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost 

($)

2,050 1,950 1,950 1,950 2,750 3,750 2,750 3,750 2,750 3,750 2,750 3,750 2,750 3,750

2,650 2,550 2,550 2,550 3,250 4,300 3,250 4,300 3,250 4,300 3,250 4,300 3,250 4,300

Total Installed Cost ($)

4,100 4,600 4,600 4,600 5,750 6,800 5,750 6,800 5,750 6,800 5,750 6,800 5,750 6,800

4,700 9,750 9,750 9,750 10,000 11,050 10,000 11,050 10,000 11,050 10,000 11,050 10,000 11,050

Annual Maintenance 

Cost ($) 50 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Federal standard for gas-fired hot-water boilers (more common than steam):

— AFUE ≥ 82% 

— Design requirements that took effect on September 1, 2012 prohibit a constant burning pilot and require 

an automatic means for adjusting water temperature

— AFUE ≥ 84% required on January 21, 2021

• ENERGY STAR criteria: AFUE ≥ 90%

• Most efficient available: 96.8% AFUE

• Have lost market share to furnaces and heat pumps over the past 30 years

• U.S. gas hot water boiler sales are split roughly 50/50 between condensing and non-condensing. Condensing 

boilers typically have heat exchangers made of stainless steel and non-condensing boiler typically have heat 

exchangers made of case iron.

• Typically, condensing boilers are low-mass in construction with modulating burners, variable-speed inducer 

fan systems, sealed powered direct-vent combustion, multiple sensor technologies, and electronic ignition 

and control.

• Due to incentives and market pressure, the U.S. boiler industry has been shifting towards also providing 

condensing boilers. Most of these boilers are private-labeled products sourced from Europe, where the 

hydronic market is much bigger and condensing appliances are much more common and/or required by 

law.

• Most value-added components for condensing boilers are sourced abroad, even when the condensing boiler 

is assembled in North America (e.g., heat exchanger, gas valve, burner, sensors, and/or controls).

• Advanced Case: Costs on the market for current 94% AFUE units are slightly higher than 90% AFUE 

(ENERGY STAR) units. With increased market incentives and R&D, the costs of 94% units are expected to 

decline to current costs for 90% units. The decreased costs for these units will help drive overall adoption of 

condensing units, thereby raising the typical efficiency, without increasing cost. 

17

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

18

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents

Annual shipments had a significant decrease following the 2009 

financial crisis and a steady recovery in the years since.

Source: National Impact Analysis Spreadsheet from the 2015 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Boilers Final Rule. 

(https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EERE-2012-BT-STD-0047-0072)
Review Draft

19

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers

*ENERGY STAR levels were not examined in the EERE 2015 rulemaking, therefore ENERGY STAR retail costs were extrapolated from the non-condensing 

levels. All other costs are the same for non-condensing models.

**2017 High - EERE 2015 has analysis for 91% AFUE, maximum AFUE identified in the AHRI and CCMS databases at time of publication is 90%. There is 

only one condensing level within the EERE analysis so extrapolation to 90% cannot be done, therefore, cost values are those presented in EERE 2015 for 

91% AFUE.

*** Average Life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). In the EERE 2015 TSD, an average of 24.8 years is calculated 

for oil-fired hot water boilers, with a low and high range from 18 to 28 years respectively.

  In 2021, new energy conservation standards for Residential Boilers will take effect. These projections reflect the 2021 minimum AFUE requirement for 

residential oil-fired boilers, 86%.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** ** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR* High** Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140

AFUE (%) 80 84 84 84 87 90 84 90 87 90 87 90 87 90

Average Life (yrs)***

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28

Retail Equipment Cost 

($)

2,400 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,450 6,150 4,000 6,150 4,450 6,150 4,450 6,150 4,450 6,150

3,050 4,300 4,300 4,300 4,800 6,700 4,300 6,700 4,800 6,700 4,800 6,700 4,800 6,700

Total Installed Cost ($)

4,350 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,900 9,400 6,600 9,400 6,900 9,400 6,900 9,400 6,900 9,400

5,000 11,650 11,650 11,650 11,950 13,500 11,650 13,500 11,950 13,500 11,950 13,500 11,950 13,500

Annual Maintenance 

Cost ($) 140 140 140 140 140 150 140 150 140 150 140 150 140 150

Return to Table of Contents

Typical efficiency level and product costs increase to ENERGY STAR levels.
Review Draft

• Federal standard for oil-fired hot-water boilers (more common than steam):

— AFUE ≥ 84% 

— Design requirements that took effect on September 1, 2012 require an automatic 

means for adjusting water temperature

— AFUE ≥ 86% required on January 21, 2021

• ENERGY STAR criteria: AFUE ≥ 87%

• Most efficient available: 90% AFUE

• Since the latent heat content of oil is lower than that for either propane or natural gas, 

oil-fired appliances can typically operate at a higher AFUE rating than comparable gasfired appliances before condensation issues arise.

• Oil boilers have heat exchangers made of cast iron or stainless steel. 

• Advanced Case: Increased incentives move typical efficiency products to ENERGY 

STAR levels by 2030. The current typical efficiency product is at 84% AFUE, while 

ENERGY STAR is at 87%, with only a small difference in costs. It is expected that with 

more market incentives, manufacturers will produce more products that can be 

ENERGY STAR certified at the 87% level.

20

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

21

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents

Annual shipments declined rapidly after 2004, likely due at least in 

part to an increase in fuel oil prices, which more than tripled from 

2002 to 2008. Since 2009 shipments have largely levelled off.

Source: National Impact Analysis Spreadsheet from the 2015 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Boilers Final Rule. 

(https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EERE-2012-BT-STD-0047-0072)
Review Draft

22

Residential Electric Resistance Furnaces

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 68 68 68 68 68 68 68

AFUE (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (yrs) 

15 15 15 15 15 15 15

30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 

600 600 600 600 600 600 600

700 700 700 700 700 700 700

Total Installed Cost ($) 

1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1000

1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1200

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Federal standards for electric furnaces:

— AFUE ≥ 78%

— Standby and off mode power consumption ≤ 10 watts

• According to RECS 2015 data, electric central warm-air furnaces are the main source of 

space heating in approximately 17.9 million US homes or about 15%. The majority of 

these installations are part of a heat pumps system, where the electric resistance is used 

as back-up heating.

• Electric furnaces range in capacity from 10 to 25 kW (34 to 85 kBtu/hr), with 20 kW (68 

kBtu/hr) being the typical for units on the market.

• Electric resistance furnaces are considered near 100% efficient because there is no flue 

heat loss and any jacket losses are contained within the home. 

— ASHRAE Standard 103, the test method for furnaces incorporated by reference into 

the federal test procedure, specifies that for electric furnaces AFUE = 100 – 1.7 x 

jacket losses. Jacket losses can be determined either through testing or assumed to 

be 1%. Thus, the minimum AFUE of electric furnaces is 98.3%.

23

Residential Electric Resistance Furnaces Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

24

Residential Electric Resistance Unit Heaters

* Assumes similar lifetime to Electric Furnaces on the basis that both products have heating elements that burn out and lead to product failure. 

** Annual Maintenance Cost is negligible

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Efficiency (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Average Life (yrs)*

15 15 15 15 15 15 15

30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 

75 75 75 75 75 75 75

200 200 200 200 200 200 200

Total Installed Cost ($) 

125 125 125 125 125 125 125

275 275 275 275 275 275 275

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) ** - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Electric resistance unit heaters include electric wall and baseboard heaters. Plug-in 

space heaters are not included.

• There are currently no federal efficiency requirements for electric resistance unit 

heaters.

• According to RECS 2015 data, electric resistance unit heaters are the main source of 

space heating in approximately 8.9 million US homes or about 8%. 

• Electric heaters range in capacity from 500 to 2,500 watts (1.7 to 8.5 kBtu/hr), with 1,000 

watts (3.5 kBtu/hr) being the most typical for units on the market.

• Electric resistance heaters are considered near 100% efficient because there is no heat 

loss through ducts or combustion. An efficiency of 98% is selected here to account for IR 

losses and fan inefficiency.

25

Residential Electric Resistance Unit Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

26

Residential Central Air Conditioners

North (Not Hot-Dry or Hot-Humid)

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

SEER* 11.4 12.5 13.0 13.9 15.0 16.5 13.9 16.5 15.0 16.5 15.5 16.5 15.5 16.5

Average Life (yrs)

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 1,750 2,050 2,200 2,250 2,650 3,200 2,250 3,200 2,350 3,200 2,350 3,200 2,350 3,200

Total Installed Cost ($) 2,150 3,400 3,550 3,650 4,000 4,650 3,650 4,650 3,700 4,650 3,700 4,650 3,700 4,650

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.

* Values shown are for split-system units in the 36 kBtu/h (3-ton) size class. Costs and efficiency levels are for ducted "coil-only" systems, meaning they 

do not include a blower. Note blower-coil systems were analyzed for Residential Air Source HP, which is why the "High" SEER levels are higher for HPs 

than for ACs.

** In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps will take effect. The new standards specify a 

different metric for Central ACs (SEER2). These projections reflect the equivalent levels for the 2023 standard under the current metric, 14 SEER.
Review Draft

27

Residential Central Air Conditioners

South (Hot-Dry and Hot-Humid)

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

SEER* 11.4 13.0 14.0 14.4 15.0 16.5 14.4 16.5 15.5 16.5 16.0 16.5 16.0 16.5

Average Life (yrs)

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 1,750 2,200 2,250 2,350 2,650 3,200 2,350 3,200 2,700 3,200 2,700 3,200 2,700 3,200

Total Installed Cost ($) 2,150 3,600 3,650 3,700 4,000 4,650 3,700 4,650 4,100 4,650 4,100 4,650 4,100 4,650

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.

* Values shown are for split-system units in the 36 kBtu/h (3-ton) size class. Costs and efficiency levels are for ducted "coil-only" systems, meaning they 

do not include a blower. Note blower-coil systems were analyzed for Residential Air Source HP, which is why the "High" SEER levels are higher for HPs 

than for ACs.

** In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps will take effect. The new standards specify a 

different metric for Central ACs (SEER2). These projections reflect the equivalent levels for the 2023 standard under the current metric, 14 SEER.
Review Draft

28

Residential Central Air Conditioners

Residential Central Air 

Conditioner Product Class

Current Standards Current ENERGY STAR 

Criteria

Min. SEER 

in North

Min. SEER 

in South

Max. Off 

Mode 

Power (W)

Min. SEER Min. EER

Split-System AC 13 14 30 15 12.5

Single-Package AC 14 14 30 15 12

Small-Duct, High-Velocity 12 12 30 – –

Space-Constrained 12 12 30 – –

• Current standards, which took effect in 2015, represent an improvement in efficiency in all regions from 

13 SEER for single-package units.

• Current standards in the South and Southwest represent an improvement in efficiency from 13 SEER for 

split systems.

• Systems installed in the Southwest (CA, AZ, NM, and NV) also have to meet an energy efficiency ratio 

(EER) standard that varies by cooling capacity and system configuration.

• Current standards took effect in 2015, amended standards for all product classes will take effect in 2023.

• Small-Duct, High-Velocity and Space-Constrained units both have very small market shares

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more cost-effective 

variable speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Annual shipments spiked at 6.5 million units in 2005 at the peak of 

the housing boom and just before more stringent Federal standards 

took effect in 2006. Annual shipments have been steadily increasing 

since 2010 but have not yet reached the previous high.

29

Residential Central Air Conditioners

Source: AHRI (available at http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Central-AirConditioners-and-Air-Source-Heat-Pumps.aspx)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

30

Residential Air Source Heat Pumps

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

SEER (Cooling)* 12.0 13.1 14.0 15.3 15.0 19.0 15.3 19.0 16.0 19.0 16.5 19.0 16.5 19.0

HSPF (Heating)* 7.4 7.9 8.2 8.6 8.5 9.0 8.6 9.0 8.8 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0

Average Life (yrs)

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Retail Equipment Cost ($)* 2,550 2,800 3,350 3,600 3,500 4,550 3,600 4,550 3,700 4,550 3,700 4,550 3,700 4,550

Total Installed Cost ($)* 3,000 3,250 4,850 5,100 4,950 6,100 5,100 6,100 5,150 6,100 5,150 6,100 5,150 6,100

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.

* Values shown are for split-system units in the 36 kBtu/h (3-ton) size class which represent the largest market share based on 2016 Energy Conservation 

Standards for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps, Government Regulatory Impact Model. Costs and efficiency levels are for ducted systems with 

integral indoor blowers. Note coil-only systems were analyzed for Residential Central AC North and South, which is why the "High" SEER levels are 

higher for HPs than for ACs.

**In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps will take effect. The new standards specify 

different metrics (SEER2 and HSPF2). These projections reflect the equivalent levels for the 2023 standard under the current metrics, 15 SEER and 8.8 

HSPF.
Review Draft

• High efficiency cooling does not necessarily correlate with high efficiency heating. The range of 

SEER–HSPF combinations is very broad.

• Heat pumps are generally sized to meet the cooling load of the house. When the heating load 

exceeds heat pump heating capacity, electric resistance heat is used to supplement.

• Variable-speed compressors improve efficiency of heat pumps by reducing cyclic losses and by 

operating above their nominal speed, boosting heating capacity and reducing the need for 

supplementary electric resistance heat.

• Current standards took effect in 2015, amended standards for all product classes will take effect in 

2023.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more costeffective variable speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially 

increasing costs.

31

Residential Air Source Heat Pumps

Residential Heat 

Pump Product Class

Current Standards Current ENERGY STAR Criteria

Min. 

SEER

Min. 

HSPF

Max. Off 

Mode 

Power (W)

Min. 

SEER Min. EER Min. 

HSPF

Split-System 14 8.2 33 15 12.5 8.5

Single-Package 14 8 33 15 12 8.2

Small-Duct, HighVelocity 12 7.2 30 – – –

Space-Constrained 12 7.4 33 – – –

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

From 2000 to 2005 annual shipments increased nearly 60% to 2.1 

million units, then dropped and leveled off around 1.7 million units. 

In 2014 annual shipments surpassed the 2005 peak.

32

Residential Air Source Heat Pumps

Source: AHRI (available at http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Central-AirConditioners-and-Air-Source-Heat-Pumps.aspx)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

33

Residential Central Air Conditioners and Air Source Heat Pumps

• Principal energy efficiency drivers for central air conditioners and heat pumps :

— Heat exchanger (surface area, number of tube rows)

— Compressor (type and single-stage vs. two-stage vs. variable-speed operation)

— Fan motor choices (PSC vs. ECM fan motors on inside and outside)

— Control choices (i.e., piston, thermal, and electronic expansion valves)

• When the heat pump or air conditioner’s capacity exceeds the heating or cooling load, 

the unit starts and stops more frequently, causing wear and tear on the components and 

an overall loss of efficiency. Multi-stage and/or variable-speed compressors can help, as 

does sophisticated refrigerant management.

• Typical high-efficiency unit (≥16 SEER) has very large heat exchanger, ECM evaporator 

fan motor, and two-stage scroll compressor.

• Variable-speed compressor technology typically leads to a significant SEER boost, 

making possible high-SEER condensing units with smaller heat exchangers, and thus, 

smaller enclosures.

• Efficiency levels >21 SEER made possible through combining existing large heat 

exchangers with variable-speed compressors, ECM fan motors, and electronic 

expansion valves.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

34

Residential Ground Source Heat Pumps

* COP values listed are assessed at a "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, DOE sets 

standards at a "water loop" test condition. The AHRI directory lists COP ratings at both sets of test conditions and is used to convert between them where 

necessary. 

** EER values listed are assessed at a full-load "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, 

DOE sets standards at a full-load "water loop" test condition. Previous analysis relied on Energy Star ratings which are an average of the full-load and partload "ground loop" conditions. The AHRI directory lists EER ratings at all sets of test conditions and is used to convert between them where necessary.

Note: Residential and commercial GSHPs are very similar - the main difference in data presented is the different capacity (3-ton vs 4-ton) and slightly 

higher installation costs for commercial. DOE does not distinguish between residential and commercial units in its regulations.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

COP (Heating)* 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.6 4.5 3.7 4.5 4 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.5

EER (Cooling)** 12.3 13.3 14.1 17.3 17.1 22.4 17.5 22.4 18 22.4 18.5 22.4 18.5 22.4

Average Life (yrs)

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 6,200 3,950 4,100 4,650 4,600 5,550 4,650 5,550 4,650 5,550 4,650 5,550 4,650 5,550

Total Installed Cost ($)

18,100 11,950 12,100 12,650 12,650 13,550 12,650 13,550 12,650 13,550 12,650 13,550 12,650 13,550

20,650 18,950 19,100 19,650 19,650 20,550 19,650 20,550 19,650 20,550 19,650 20,550 19,650 20,550

Annual Maintenance 

Cost ($) 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• There are currently over 20 ground source heat pump manufacturers/OEMs in the US.

• Heating COP does not correlate with cooling EER (coefficient of determination, R2 = 0.59 for ENERGY 

STAR certified products). The highest efficiency GSHP is the 7 Series by WaterFurnace International, 

Inc. (41 EER & 5.3 COP). Note that these are equipment-level thermal ratings tested according to 

standardized lab conditions and do not necessarily represent system-level or "real-world" performance.

• The ENERGY STAR® criteria for water-to-air ground source heat pumps are:

• The most common ground source heat pump is a closed-loop system in which water or an anti-freeze 

solution is circulated through plastic pipes buried underground. Open loop systems that employ ground 

water or surface water (e.g., open well, pond, lake) are used in some parts of the country, but water 

supply and water quality issues impose limitations on such applications.

• Installation cost is for a closed loop system and includes necessary accessories. The ground loop heat 

exchanger represents a majority of the installation cost. Installed costs for these systems vary widely. 

• Variable speed electronically commutated motors (ECMs) improve performance on high end models.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more advanced 

compressors, fan motors) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs.

35

Residential Ground Source Heat Pumps

Type Heating 

COP

Cooling 

EER

Closed Loop 3.6 17.1

Open Loop 4.1 21.1

Direct Expansion 3.6 16

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

36

Residential Room Air Conditioners

* All values are for the most common product class, Product Class 3 (without reverse cycle, with louvered sides, and 8,000 to 13,999 Btu/h).

** Maintenance costs are negligible.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity 

(kBtu/hr)* 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5

CEER (Btu/Wh) 9.3 10.9 10.9 12.0 12.0 12.3 12.3 12.8 12.8 13.5 13.0 13.8 13.5 14.5

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

480 470 470 510 510 510 510 550 550 590 570 610 590 630

580 600 600 600 600 730 730 780 780 830 810 860 830 880

Total Installed Cost ($)

550 540 540 580 580 580 580 620 620 660 640 680 660 750

680 700 700 700 700 830 830 880 880 930 910 960 930 860

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)** - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Increased efficiency with corresponding cost increases.
Review Draft

• Focus on most common type: louvered sides (window air conditioners) without reverse cycle and 

having cooling capacity of 8,000–13,999 Btu/h (DOE Product Class 3).

• Federal standards for Product Class 3:

— CEER ≥ 10.9 (beginning June 1, 2014)

• Combined Energy Efficiency Ratio (CEER) incorporates energy use in cooling mode and standby and 

off modes.

• Of the 474 individual models in Product Class 3 listed in DOE’s compliance certification 

database1:

— 42% are at the standard level (≥ 10.9 CEER, < 12.0 CEER)

— 58% are at the ENERGY STAR level (≥ 12.0 CEER)

— Most efficient model is at 12.3 CEER

• ENERGY STAR criteria for Product Class 3

— CEER ≥ 12.0 (effective October 26, 2015)

• Efficiency improvements are attained by:

— Higher efficiency compressor and fan motors, and

— An increased heat transfer area in the evaporator and condenser through the use of larger heat 

exchangers, finer fin spacing, micro-channel heat exchangers, and similar design options.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more 

efficient motors and compressors, larger cross-section heat exchangers, adoption of variable 

speed technologies) are expected to increase efficiency with corresponding increases in cost.

37

Residential Room Air Conditioners Return to Table of Contents

1 Accessed December 2017. https://www.regulations.doe.gov/certification-data
Review Draft

Annual shipments dropped sharply in 2009, likely due to the 

recession and an unusually cool summer in the Northeast. Sales 

have largely leveled off in the years since, fluctuating between 6 

and 7.5 million.

38

Residential Room Air Conditioners

Source: Appliance Magazine.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

39

Residential Portable Air Conditioners

* All values are for the average capacity for single-duct and dual-duct portable ACs available on the market.

** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note: In December of 2016 EREE issued a final rule titled Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Portable Air

Conditioners. As of October 2017, this rule has not yet been published and therefore these standards are not reflected in the values shown above.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr)* 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6

CEER (Btu/Wh) 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.7 6.7 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 9.5 9.5 10.0

Average Life (yrs)

7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 720 690 670 800 800 825 825 850 850 875 875 900

Total Installed Cost ($) 720 690 670 800 800 825 825 850 850 875 875 900

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)** - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Increased efficiency with corresponding cost increases.
Review Draft

• A new test procedure for portable ACs was published June 1, 2016

• The test procedure addresses single-duct and dual-duct portable ACs, configurations typically 

used in residential applications. No procedures were established for other portable AC 

configurations (e.g., spot coolers).

• Spot coolers, a portable AC configuration with no condenser-side ducts and with adjustable 

evaporator exhaust ducts, are commonly used in commercial applications.

• A final rule, Energy Conservation Standards for Portable Air Conditioners, was issued in 

December 28, 2016 to address standards for single-duct and dual-duct portable ACs. It was 

never published, so there are no existing energy conservation standards for portable ACs.

• The final rule outlined an equation-based conservation standard (in CEER) for both singleduct and dual-duct portable ACs, based on the seasonally adjusted cooling capacity (SACC).

• For a typical portable AC in 2017 with a capacity of 6,600 Btu/h, the corresponding CEER is 

typically 4.3 Btu/Wh.

• Efficiency improvements are attained by:

— Higher efficiency compressor and fan motors, and

— An increased heat transfer area in the evaporator and condenser through the use of larger 

heat exchangers, finer fin spacing, micro-channel heat exchangers, and similar design 

options.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more 

efficient motors and compressors, larger cross-section heat exchangers, adoption of variable 

speed technologies) are expected to increase efficiency with corresponding increases in cost.

40

Residential Portable Air Conditioners Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

41

Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

Heating (COP) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Cooling (COP) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Annual Electric Use (kWh/yr)* 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12

18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000

12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200

Total Installed Cost ($) 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500

14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 170 170 170 170 170 170 170

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case

* Annual Electric Use accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the heat pump fan.
Review Draft

• Residential Gas Heat Pumps are not currently covered by NAECA. CEC Title 24, Part 6 

Section 112 does indicate cooling efficiency requirements for gas heat pumps.

• Gas heat pumps are much more popular in other parts of the world, such as Europe. 

Gas-fired cooling equipment currently comprises less than 1% of the residential air 

conditioning/heat pump market in the U.S. 

• Currently, Robur is the predominant manufacturer of residential-sized gas heat pumps 

with sales operations in the US. Robur units are 5-ton nominal cooling capacity, a size 

typically associated with larger homes. Since only one product is available, no mid-level 

or high efficiency categories are included. 

• The data represents air-source absorption heat pumps. Gas engine-driven vapor 

compression heat pumps are available in other parts of the world; York formerly offered 

the Triathlon gas engine-driven heat pump in the US. It is possible to couple either 

technology to the ground (ground source) rather than the atmosphere (air source).

• The absorption heat pump is a gas-fired, ammonia-water absorption cycle, combined 

with a high-efficiency low-pressure boiler integrated into one outdoor unit.

• The cooling efficiency of a gas-fired air source absorption heat pump is considerably 

lower than for an electric air source heat pump. Heating efficiency of an air source heat 

pump (electric or gas-fired absorption) decreases as outdoor temperature decreases; 

however the gas-fired absorption heat pump recovers waste heat from the combustion 

process to improve heating efficiency.

42

Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

43

Residential Cordwood Stoves

* EPA Certified Default Level no longer listed here because 2015 EPA rule requires that manufacturers test and report the efficiency of their stoves 

and, therefore, manufacturers no longer have the option to report the default value.

** Efficiency includes combustion and heat transfer efficiency and is based on the higher heating value (HHV) of the fuel.

*** Installed cost includes cost of hearth and stainless steel chimney liner - materials and labor.

**** Annual maintenance cost of catalytic stove includes periodic cost of replacing the catalytic combustor.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical* High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Efficiency (Non-Catalytic) (HHV)** 58 63 70 76 70 77 73 78 74 79 75 80

Efficiency (Catalytic) (HHV)** 68 72 78 84 78 84 81 85 82 86 83 87

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost ($) (NonCatalytic) 2,400 2,450 2,450 2,650 2,450 2,650 2,550 2,750 2,650 2,850 2,750 2,950

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 

(Catalytic) 3,300 3,000 3,000 3,200 3,000 3,200 3,100 3,300 3,200 3,400 3,300 3,500

Total Installed Cost ($) (NonCatalytic) 7,000 7,050 7,050 7,250 7,050 7,250 7,150 7,350 7,250 7,450 7,350 7,550

Total Installed Cost ($) (Catalytic) 7,900 7,600 7,600 7,800 7,600 7,800 7,700 7,900 7,800 8,000 7,900 8,100

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) (Non 

Catalytic) 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 

(Catalytic) 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Residential cordwood stoves that must meet EPA particulate limits fall into two broad 

classes based on whether or not they use a catalyst for air treatment. Catalytic wood 

stoves use a catalytic combustor to reduce emissions from the combustion air. Noncatalytic wood stoves use baffles and introduce secondary air above the flames to enable 

more complete combustion and reduce emissions. 

• In 2015, EPA published an update to its New Source Performance Standards (NSPS), 

decreasing the emissions limit (previously set by 1988 EPA rule) to 4.5 g/hr for both 

catalytic and non-catalytic stoves. The new rule did not institute efficiency standards, 

but required that manufacturers test and certify the efficiency of their stoves. This 

standard took full effect on January 1, 2016.

• The 2015 EPA rule stipulates that, in 2020, emissions requirements for wood stoves will 

be lowered to 2.5 or 2.0 g/hr (depending on the test method used). 

• Prior to the 2015 rule, manufacturers could either submit efficiency data from laboratory 

testing or certify with the default efficiency value designated by EPA. EPA’s default 

efficiency values were 63% for non-catalytic wood stoves and 72% for catalytic wood 

stoves. Under this system, few manufacturers submitted efficiency test data to EPA.

• Some states still have emissions requirements that are more stringent than the EPA’s 

standard (e.g., Washington).

• EPA notes in its 2015 rule that efficiency requirements may be included in a future 

rulemaking.

44

Residential Cordwood Stoves Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• A federal tax credit for efficient wood stoves was offered from 2009 to 2016 and 

retroactively for 2017. Some states offered tax credits through 2017 (e.g., Oregon).

• Multiple test standards are commonly used to assess stove efficiency and data from 

product literature does not generally identify the efficiency test method. It’s not possible 

to determine performance trends based on construction or configuration (e.g., cast iron 

vs. plate steel, powered blowers vs. no blowers, etc.) trends in specific equipment type 

or construction based on published efficiencies. Further, EPA certification data shows 

no significant relationship between emissions and heating efficiency.

• Cordwood stoves require chimneys for venting combustion gases. Whether 

conventional masonry chimneys are used or metal chimney liners, these add 

considerable cost to the overall system. Accordingly, installed costs can be twice that of 

the wood stove itself. 

45

Residential Cordwood Stoves Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

46

Residential Cordwood Stoves

Source: HPBA, no post-2012 sales data was publicly available at time of publication.

Cordwood stove shipments have averaged 123,000 per year since 1999 

and have fluctuated roughly in accordance with fuel oil costs.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

47

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves

* EPA Certified Default Level removed because 2015 EPA rule requires that manufacturers test and report the efficiency of their stoves. 

Therefore, manufacturers no longer have the option to report the default value.

** Efficiency includes combustion and heat transfer efficiency and is based on the higher heating value (HHV) of the fuel.

*** Installed cost includes cost of hearth and vent pipe - materials and labor.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Efficiency (HHV) 65 70 76 87 76 87 77 87 78 88 79 89

Annual Electricity 

Consumption (kWh) 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 3,300 3,300 3,300 4,000 3,300 4,000 3,400 4,000 3,500 4,100 3,600 4,200

Total Installed Cost ($) 4,700 4,700 4,700 5,400 4,700 5,400 4,800 5,400 4,900 5,500 5,000 5,600

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• In 2015, EPA published an update to its New Source Performance Standards (NSPS), 

limiting emissions for wood pellet stoves to 4.5 g/hr. Prior to the 2015 EPA rule, most 

pellet stoves were exempt from EPA’s NSPS requirements. The new rule did not

institute efficiency standards, but required that manufacturers test and certify the 

efficiency of their stoves. This standard took full effect on January 1, 2016.

• The 2015 EPA rule stipulates that, in 2020, emissions requirements for wood stoves will 

be lowered to 2.5 or 2.0 g/hr (depending on the test method used). 

• EPA notes in its 2015 rule that efficiency requirements may be included in a future 

rulemaking.

• Prior to the 2015 rule, manufacturers could either submit efficiency data from laboratory 

testing or use a default efficiency value designated by EPA (78% for pellet stoves). 

Under this system, few manufacturers submitted efficiency test data to EPA.

• Some states still have emissions requirements that are more stringent than the EPA’s 

standard (e.g., Washington).

• A federal tax credit for efficient wood stoves was offered from 2009 to 2016 and 

retroactively for 2017. Some states offered tax credits through 2017 (e.g., Oregon).

48

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Multiple test standards are commonly used to assess stove efficiency and data from 

product literature does not generally identify the efficiency test method. 

• It’s not possible to determine performance trends based on construction or 

configuration (e.g., cast iron vs. plate steel, powered blowers vs. no blowers, etc.) trends 

in specific equipment type or construction based on published efficiencies. Further, 

EPA certification data shows no significant relationship between emissions and heating 

efficiency.

• Wood pellet stoves may be able to be direct vented to the outdoors, eliminating the 

need for a chimney. This reduces the overall system cost as compared to a cord wood 

stove. However, they do use electricity to power the pellet feeder, the combustion air 

fan, and the blower. In the event of a power outage, a pellet stove can not operate 

without some back-up source of electricity (e.g., battery) . 

49

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

50

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves

Source: HPBA, no post-2012 sales data was publicly available at time of publication.

Wood pellet stove shipments grew substantially in the 2005 – 2008 

time period, but have averaged only 40,000 – 60,000 units since that 

time. 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

51

Residential Water Heaters

• On December 29, 2016, the metric for the current Federal standard was translated from 

Energy Factor (EF) to Uniform Energy Factor (UEF)1. 

• The UEF test procedure is conceptually similar to the EF test procedure in that it is a 24-

hour simulated-use test of how the water heater would be expected to perform in the 

field.

— The EF test procedure consists of one draw pattern for all models. 

— The UEF test procedure consists of 4 possible draw patterns. 

 The particular draw pattern a water heater is tested to is determined through a 

delivery capacity test (first-hour rating or maximum GPM).

 A draw pattern is a set of instructions specifying when, how fast (flow rate), and 

how much (volume) hot water is removed from the water heater.

 Therefore, a water heater designed to deliver a small amount of hot water is not 

tested the same as a water heater designed to deliver a large amount of hot water.

1Test Procedures for Consumer and Commercial Water Heaters; Final rule. 81 FR 96204.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

52

Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

Uniform Energy 

Factor (UEF)* 0.58 0.58 0.61 0.63 0.66 0.81 0.63 0.81 0.66 0.81 0.66 1.3 0.66 1.3

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

500 500 700 750 800 1,850 750 1,850 800 1,850 800 1,850 800 1,850

550 550 1,000 1,200 1,350 2,100 1,200 2,100 1350 2,100 1350 2,100 1350 2,100

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)**

1,050 1,050 1,350 1,400 1,500 2,450 1,400 2,450 1500 2,450 1500 2,450 1500 2,450

1,050 1,050 2,300 2,450 2,550 3,700 2,450 3,700 2550 3,700 2550 3,700 2550 3,700

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 0.60 EF. Analysis is based on an average of medium and high draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of 

the market.

** Installed cost reflects differences in installation cost between typical and high efficiency products. Typical efficiency products are non-condensing, 

whereas the high efficiency products are condensing and require different installation. Furthermore, higher UEF can be achieved by additional insulation, 

which also increases the size of the unit and the associated installation cost.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

Typical efficiency level and product costs increase to ENERGY STAR levels. 

Increased high efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• The equations for the revised Federal standards are:

• There are currently no models on the market above 55 gallons due to the high UEF which would require using 

condensing or gas-fired heat pump (e.g., absorption) technology to achieve.

• The ENERGY STAR UEF levels for models with storage volume ≤ 55 gallons are typically achievable through the 

use of a power vent or flue damper.

• The cost of installation is typically $600 to $1200, which exceeds that of electric water heaters. This difference can 

be attributed to multiple differences, gas-fired heaters require an extra 1.5 hours of labor for 2 plumbers that is 

required for gas units. 

• Condensing units are high efficiency and use PVC venting instead of stainless-steel. High efficiency condensing 

units also use an electrical supply for electronic ignition and power venting. Some building codes require 

condensate neutralizer filters.

• Advanced Case: Increased incentives move typical efficiency products to ENERGY STAR levels by 2030. The 

current typical efficiency product is at 0.63 UEF, while ENERGY STAR is at 0.66 UEF with only a small difference 

in costs. It is expected that with more market incentives, manufacturers will produce more products that can be 

ENERGY STAR certified at the 0.66 UEF level. Furthermore, high efficiency gas absorption heat pump water 

heaters are expected to enter the market by 2040, which will dramatically increase maximum achievable UEF.

53

Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

Volume 

Range Draw Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

≥ 20 gal and ≤ 

55 gal

Very Small UEF=0.3456-(0.002*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Low UEF=0.5982-(0.0019*Gal) 0.54 for a 29-gallon water heater N/A

Medium UEF=0.6483-(0.0017*Gal) 0.58 for a 38-gallon water heater 0.64

High UEF=0.692-(0.0013*Gal) 0.64 for a 48-gallon water heater 0.68

> 55 gal and ≤ 

100 gal

Very Small UEF=0.647-(0.0006*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Low UEF=0.7689-(0.0005*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Medium UEF=0.7897-(0.0004*Gal) No models on the market 0.78

High UEF=0.8072-(0.0003*Gal) No models on the market 0.80

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipments were flat at 5 million units per year through 2004, then 

declined gradually over 5 years to a new plateau at 4 million units 

until rising again to a max of 4.5 million units in 2014.

54

Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

Source: http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Residential-Storage-Water-Heaters-Historical-Data.aspx

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

55

Residential Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 0.50 EF. Analysis is based on an average of medium and high draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of 

the market

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 30 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32

Uniform Energy Factor 

(UEF)* 0.51 0.51 0.64 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.69

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

1,350 1,350 1,500 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600

1,450 1,450 1,900 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

2,000 2,000 2,100 2,250 2,200 2,250 2,200 2,250 2,200 2,250 2,200 2,250 2,200

2,100 2,100 2,700 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• The equations for the Federal standards are:

• There are no ENERGY STAR levels for oil-fired storage water heaters.

• Annual shipments of residential oil-fired storage water heaters are approximately 

40,000, which is ~1% of shipments of residential gas-fired storage water heaters. 

• Oil-fired storage water heaters often have smaller tanks with larger input ratings 

relative to natural gas-fired and electric storage water heaters.

• No condensing residential oil-fired storage water heaters currently exist in the U.S. 

market. The highest efficiencies currently on the market are at near-condensing levels.

• Residential oil-fired water heaters utilize power burners and have at least some level of 

electrical power consumption. 

• The max-tech model on the market uses a proprietary “turbo-flue” design to increase 

heat transfer to water.

56

Residential Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

Volume 

Range

Draw 

Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

≤ 50 gal

Very Small UEF=0.2509-(0.0012*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Low UEF=0.533-(0.0016*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Medium UEF=0.6078-(0.0016*Gal) No models on the market N/A

High UEF=0.6815-(0.0014*Gal) 0.64 for a 29-gallon water heater N/A

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

57

Residential Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Uniform Energy Factor 

(UEF)* 0.88 0.88 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.95

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

300 250 250 300 700 300 700 300 700 300 700 300 700

350 450 500 550 900 550 900 550 900 550 900 550 900

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)**

600 500 550 600 1,000 600 1,000 600 1,000 600 1,000 600 1,000

650 800 1,000 1,100 1,450 1,100 1,450 1,100 1,450 1,100 1,450 1,100 1,450

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - - -

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 0.90 EF. Analysis is based on an average of low and medium draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of 

the market

** Installed cost reflects differences in installation cost between typical and high efficiency products. The high UEF products have a larger size (due to 

insulation differences) and therefore require more installation work.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• The equations for the Federal standards are:

• The federal standards for residential electric storage water heaters apply to both electric 

resistance storage water heaters and integrated heat pump water heaters (HPWHs; heat 

pump module and storage tank combined in one unit).

— The Federal standard levels for the ≤55 gallon range are achievable through electric 

resistance and heat pump technology.

— The Federal standards for the >55 gallon range and all ENERGY STAR levels are only 

achievable through heat pump technology. There are no HPWHs on the market that 

cannot meet the applicable Federal standard level.

• Typical storage volumes range from 25-55 gallons for electric resistance storage water 

heaters and 45-80 gallons for HPWHs.

58

Residential Electric Storage Water Heaters

Volume 

Range

Draw 

Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

≥ 20 gal and 

≤ 55 gal

Very Small UEF=0.8808-(0.0008*Gal) No models on the market 2.00

Low UEF=0.9254-(0.0003*Gal) 0.91 for a 27-gallon water heater 2.00

Medium UEF=0.9307-(0.0002*Gal) 0.92 for a 36-gallon water heater 2.00

High UEF=0.9349-(0.0001*Gal) 0.93 for a 45-gallon water heater 2.00

> 55 gal and 

≤ 120 gal

Very Small UEF=1.9236-(0.0011*Gal) No models on the market 2.20

Low UEF=2.0440-(0.0011*Gal) No models on the market 2.20

Medium UEF=2.1171-(0.0011*Gal) 2.03 for a 77-gallon water heater 2.20

High UEF=2.2418-(0.0011*Gal) 2.15 for a 82-gallon water heater 2.20

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

59

Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Uniform Energy Factor 

(UEF)* 2.05 2.05 3.28 2.00 3.55 3.28 3.55 3.28 3.55 3.28 3.55 3.28 3.55

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

1,550 1,100 1,200 1,050 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

1,900 1,400 1,500 1,350 2,300 1,500 2,300 1,500 2,300 1,500 2,300 1,500 2,300

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

1,700 1,450 1,600 1,400 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600

2,450 2,500 2,550 2,400 3,350 2,550 3,350 2,550 3,350 2,550 3,350 2,550 3,350

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 2.00 EF. Analysis is based on an average of low and medium draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of 

the market

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Technology improvements have advanced efficiency and reliability, but the high first-cost 

and lack of awareness among consumers and contractors still precludes high-volume market 

penetration. Although there is an installed base listed for 2009, the market penetration of 

heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) was quite low at that time.

• New Federal standards that came into effect in April 2015 effectively mandate heat pump 

technology for electric storage water heaters with storage volume > 55 gallons.

• Integrated models are the most common configuration for residential HPWHs. Several major 

water heater manufacturers produce such models, and other competitors offer integrated or 

add-on units (for existing electric or indirect storage water heaters). 

• Sales are estimated to be driven partly by rebates and tax credits at the utility, local, state, 

and Federal level. 

• Resistive heating elements are virtually 100% efficient, but there is a jump in efficiency when 

heat pump technology is adopted because heat pumps’ Coefficient of Performance (COP) are 

usually between 2.5 and 4.

• Heat pumps raise the water temperature more slowly than resistive heating elements, so 

most models use backup resistive elements along with the heat pump when hot water 

demand is high. Most HPWHs allow the consumer to control whether resistive elements are 

used in periods of high demand (e.g., “hybrid mode” or “heat pump only mode”).

60

Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipments peaked in 2006 then dropped a total of 22 percent over 

three years and leveled off between 3.7 and 4.3 million units per year. 

61

Residential Electric Water Heaters

Source: http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Residential-Storage-Water-Heaters-Historical-Data.aspx

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

62

Residential Solar Water Heaters

* Costs are for an indirect (active closed loop) system, including tank and backup heater. Smaller capacity/cost systems are typical for southern & western 

states (>2/3 of the current market). Higher capacity/cost systems are required in colder/cloudier regions.

** ENERGY STAR requires OG-300 rating from SRCC. Most installations use SRCC rated collectors; a high efficiency option is not applicable.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base

Typical / 

ENERGY 

STAR**

Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.)

42 42 42 42 42 42 42

63 65 65 65 65 65 65

Solar Fraction (SF) 0.5 0.5 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56

Solar Energy Factor (SEF) 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Average Life (yrs)

15 15 15 15 15 15 15

30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost* (2017$)

3,500 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800

5,400 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300

Total Installed Cost* (2017$)

7,800 7,100 7,100 7,100 7,100 7,100 7,100

10,200 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Solar water heaters (SWHs) are not subject to federal energy conservation standards, the ENERGY 

STAR requirements are:

• Solar water heaters can be either active or passive. An active system uses an electric pump to 

circulate the heat transfer fluid; a passive system has no pump. Most solar water heaters in the 

United States are the active type.

• Solar water heaters are also characterized as open loop (also called "direct") or closed loop (also 

called "indirect"). An open-loop system circulates household (potable) water through the collector. 

A closed-loop system uses a heat transfer fluid (water or diluted antifreeze, for example) to collect 

heat and a heat exchanger to transfer the heat to household water.

• Solar fraction represents the fraction of total annual water heating energy met by the solar water 

heater. A backup water heating system is required with SWHs, and it is typically most economical 

to size the system to provide about 50% of water heating energy (solar fraction = 0.5).

• Solar Energy Factor (SEF) is defined by the Solar Rating and Certification Corporation (SRCC) as the 

useful energy delivered by the system divided by the total electrical and/or fossil fuel required for 

backup heating, pumping, and controls (the free solar energy input is neglected).

• Over 2/3 of the current SWH market is in the southern or western US (including Hawaii). A collector 

area of 42 ft2 would be typical for these areas. Colder areas of the US would require a larger collector 

(e.g. 65 ft2).

• Installed costs are higher for colder areas where larger collectors are required. Costs also vary 

widely depending on collector quality, type of system, and site-specific characteristics.

63

Residential Solar Water Heaters

Applicable 

Products

Backup 

Fuel

ENERGY STAR 

Requirement Test Method

Whole-home 

solar units

Gas SEF ≥ 1.2 SRCC – OG-300: Operating Guidelines and Minimum 

Electric SEF ≥ 1.8 Standards for Certifying Solar Water Heating Systems 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

64

Residential Gas-fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr) 185 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199

Uniform Energy Factor 

(UEF)* 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.89 0.87 0.97 0.93 0.97 0.93 0.97 0.93 0.97 0.93 0.97

Average Life (yrs)

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

1,150 1,200 700 1,000 850 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050

1,300 1,500 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,650 1,200 1,650 1,200 1,650 1,200 1,650 1,200 1,650

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

1,750 2,200 1,500 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,500 1,600 1,500 1,600 1,500 1,600 1,500 1,600

1,850 3,250 3,200 2,850 3,050 3,300 2,850 3,300 2,850 3,300 2,850 3,300 2,850 3,300

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 90 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 0.82 EF. Analysis is based on an average of low, medium, and high draw pattern units, as this is most 

reflective of the market

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• The Federal standards are:

• The ENERGY STAR levels require the use of condensing technology.

• Navien and Bosch manufacture the highest efficiency high draw pattern models currently available 

on the market, which have a UEF of 0.97. Navien manufactures the highest efficiency medium draw 

pattern models currently available on the market, which have a UEF of 0.96. These levels are 

achieved through the use of electronic ignition, power-direct venting, and condensing the flue gases.

• All of the major water heater manufacturers now offer an instantaneous model.

• The maintenance costs include cleaning the water inlet filter and the heat exchanger of mineral 

deposits and replacing the water valve approximately once every five years for all instantaneous 

water heaters.

• When replacing a storage water heater with an instantaneous water heater, there are significant 

additional costs to upsize the gas supply line to 3⁄4 inch from the typical 1⁄2 inch and change the 

venting.

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives is expected to drive further adoption of condensing 

products, thereby raising the typical efficiency, while increased R&D is expected to improve cost. 

65

Residential Gas-fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

Volume 

Range

Draw 

Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

<2 gal and 

>50,000 Btu/h

Very Small UEF=0.80 No models on the market 0.87

Low UEF=0.81 No models on the market 0.87

Medium UEF=0.81 0.81 0.87

High UEF=0.81 0.81 0.87

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

66

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Top)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 657 512 405 389 364 358 389 358 364 358 362 358 361 358

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 580 570 700 750 850 880 750 880 750 880 750 880 750 880

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 580 570 700 750 850 880 750 880 750 880 750 880 750 880

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

* Product Class 3 is used for this analysis (Refrigerator-freezers—automatic defrost with top-mounted freezer without through-the-door ice service and allrefrigerator—automatic defrost)

** The volume shown here is the nominal total volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted 

volume is equal to the fresh food internal volume plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 21 ft3 and use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and 

Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics)

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

67

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Side)

* Product Class 7 is used for this analysis (Refrigerator-freezers—automatic defrost with side-mounted freezer with through-the-door ice service) 

** The volume shown here is the nominal total volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted 

volume is equal to the fresh food internal volume plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 32 ft3 and use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and 

Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics, ice maker), not replaceable components 

(e.g., water filters)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 1,146 893 705 671 635 509 671 509 635 509 604 509 572 509

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 1,200 1,190 1,310 1,420 1,550 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 1,200 1,190 1,310 1,420 1,550 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

68

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Bottom)

* Product Class 5 is used for this analysis (Refrigerator-freezers—automatic defrost with bottom-mounted freezer without through-the-door ice service)

** The volume shown here is the nominal total volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted 

volume is equal to the fresh food internal volume plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 25 ft3 for 2009 and 23 ft3 for all other years. All values represent use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test 

Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the 

updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 651 547 521 480 469 469 480 469 476 469 472 469 469 469

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 980 1,010 1,030 1,120 1,160 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 980 1,010 1,030 1,120 1,160 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Current Federal standards1:

— Compliance required beginning September 15, 2014.

— Models divided into 32 product classes based on size (standard or compact), location of freezer (top, 

bottom, or side), type of defrost (automatic or manual), installation configuration (freestanding or builtin), and presence and configuration (through-the-door or inside cabinet) of automatic icemaker

— Limits on annual electricity consumption expressed as functions of adjusted volume2

— New product classes for built-in units

— Amount by which standards are tightened varies by product class

• ENERGY STAR criteria limit annual electricity consumption to 10% less than the Federal standard.

• Current analysis focuses on the three representative product classes analyzed in the recent rulemaking.

• Energy efficiency opportunities include:

— Higher efficiency and/or variable-speed compressor systems

— Larger heat exchangers

— Permanent-magnet fan motor systems (vs. SPM and PSC fan motors)

— Demand defrost systems

— Vacuum-insulated panels

— Thicker insulation (though at a loss of consumer utility)

— Refrigerants (Isobutane vs. R134a)

— Variable anti-sweat heating

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives will push product sales towards the ENERGY STAR level, but 

the technologies used to meet ENERGY STAR are already well-known and prices will likely not rise as 

manufacturing volumes increase at higher efficiencies. 

69

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and Freezers. 10 CFR 430.32(a).

2Adjusted Volume (AV) = (Fresh Volume) + 1.76 × (Freezer Volume). 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Annual shipment volumes have rebounded from a sharp decline 

between 2006 and 2009, reaching approximately 10.9 million units in 

2016.

70

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers

Source: Appliance Magazine; DOE’s Compliance and Certification Database (as of December 2017); Navigant analysis. Dashed 

lines indicate interpolated data.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Side-mount units continue to gain market share, surpassing topmount units in 2017. 

71

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers

Sources: August 2011 Refrigerator Final Rule TSD; DOE’s Compliance Certification Database (as of December 2017); Navigant 

analysis. Dashed bars (2008 to 2017) indicate interpolated data.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

72

Residential Freezers (Chest)

* Product Class 10 is used for this analysis (Chest freezers and all other freezers except compact freezers)

** The volume shown here is the nominal volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted volume is 

equal to the fresh food internal volume (zero for freezers) plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 26 ft3 and use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and 

Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 428 360 300 297 277 275 297 275 290 275 283 275 276 275

Average Life (yrs)

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 420 430 500 500 550 540 500 540 500 540 500 540 500 540

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 420 430 500 500 550 540 500 540 500 540 500 540 500 540

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

73

Residential Freezers (Upright)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 763 615 477 446 430 419 446 419 439 419 432 419 425 419

Average Life (yrs)

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 580 590 690 750 790 810 750 810 750 810 750 810 750 810

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 580 590 690 750 790 810 750 810 750 810 750 810 750 810

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

* Product Class 9 is used for this analysis (Upright freezers with automatic defrost)

** The volume shown here is the nominal volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted volume is 

equal to the fresh food internal volume (zero for freezers) plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 29 ft3 and use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and 

Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics)

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Current Federal standards1:

— Compliance required beginning September 15, 2014

— Models divided into 10 product classes based on size (standard or compact), orientation (chest or 

upright), type of defrost (automatic or manual), installation configuration (freestanding or built-in), and 

presence of automatic icemaker

— Limits on annual electricity consumption expressed as functions of adjusted volume2

• ENERGY STAR criteria limit annual electricity consumption to 10% less than the Federal standard.

• Current analysis focuses on the two representative product classes analyzed in the recent rulemaking.

• Energy efficiency opportunities include:

— Higher efficiency and/or variable-speed compressor systems

— Larger heat exchangers

— Permanent-magnet fan motor systems (vs. SPM and PSC fan motors)

— Demand defrost systems

— Vacuum-insulated panels

— Thicker insulation (though at a loss of consumer utility)

— Refrigerants (Isobutane vs. R134a)

— Variable anti-sweat heating

— Use of forced convection condenser (for upright freezers)

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives will push product sales towards the ENERGY STAR level, but 

the technologies used to meet ENERGY STAR are already well-known and prices will likely not rise as 

manufacturing volumes increase at higher efficiencies. 

74

Residential Freezers

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and Freezers. 10 CFR 430.32(a).

2Adjusted Volume (AV) = (Fresh Volume) + 1.76 × (Freezer Volume). 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipment volumes have held steady since 2007 at about 2 million 

units per year. Chest freezers represent about 60% of the market.

75

Residential Freezers

Source: Appliance Magazine.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

76

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops

* Although there is no performance standard in effect, the test procedure metric has changed from Cooking Efficiency (%) to Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kBtu/yr) based on the 2016 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products

** Equipment and installed costs are for stand-alone cooktops only (not stoves).

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kbtu/yr)* 1,105 1,061 914 730 914 730 914 730 914 730 914 730

Cooking Efficiency (%) 39 40 45 52 45 52 45 52 45 52 45 52

Average Life (yrs)

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)** 250 250 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260

Total Installed Cost (2017$)** 360 360 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - -

Same as reference case
Review Draft

77

Residential Natural Gas Ovens

* Although there is no performance standard in effect, the test procedure metric has changed from Cooking Efficiency (%) to Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kBtu/yr) based on the 2016 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products

** Equipment and installed costs are for ovens only (not combined ranges). Furthermore, they are reflective of freestanding oven units, which represent 

90% of the market.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Typical Cavity Volume (ft3

)

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kbtu/yr)* 2,077 2,038 1,915 1,660 1,915 1,660 1,915 1,660 1,915 1,660 1,915 1,660

Cooking Efficiency (%) 6.5 6.6 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8

Average Life (yrs)

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)** 510 510 560 610 560 610 560 610 560 610 560 610

Total Installed Cost (2017$)** 620 620 680 720 680 720 680 720 680 720 680 720

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - -

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• DOE analyzes cooktops and ovens separately, although they are often sold together in a 

single unit that combines both a cooktop and an oven into a product referred to as a 

range.

• Since January 1, 1990, gas cooking products with an electrical supply cord have been 

required to not be equipped with a constant burning pilot light. This requirement 

extended to gas cooking products without an electrical supply cord, as of April 9, 2012.

• DOE final rule published in 20091: no standard for cooking efficiency is cost-justified.

• DOE initiated a standards rulemaking in 2014 to consider amended standards for 

cooking products, including gas cooktops and ovens2.

— Most recently, on September 2, 2016, DOE proposed performance-based standards 

for gas cooktops and ovens that would take effect in 2020 if adopted.

• DOE established a new metric called integrated annual energy consumption (kBtu/year) 

to replace cooking efficiency (%).

78

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops and Ovens

1Energy Conservation Standards for Certain Consumer Products (Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Microwave Ovens, and Electric and Gas Kitchen 

Ranges and Ovens) and for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment (Commercial Clothes Washers); Final Rule. 74 FR 16040.

2Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products; Supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking (SNOPR). 81 FR 

60784.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipments have been rising since 2012 and are approaching the peak 

reached in 2005.

79

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops and Ovens

Note: Excludes separate ovens, which were categorized as "built-in" units prior to 2007 and represent a relatively negligible portion of the market. 

For example, between 2012-2014 an average of 32,000 standalone gas ovens, 360,000 gas cooktops, and 4.46 million ranges were sold per year.

Source: Appliance Magazine.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

Combined Energy Factor 

(lb/kWh)* 3.55 3.59 3.73 3.74 4.50 3.74 4.50 3.89 4.50 3.97 4.50 4.04 4.50

Average Life (yrs) 

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 410 410 420 430 650 430 650 430 650 430 650 430 650

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 520 520 530 540 770 540 770 540 770 540 770 540 770

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)** - - - - - - - - - - - - -

80

Residential Clothes Dryers (Electric)

*The efficiency metric changed from energy factor (EF) to combined energy factor (CEF) in 2015. The CEF value for installed base 2009 is a converted value 

equivalent to 3.01 EF

** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

81

Residential Clothes Dryers (Gas)

*The efficiency metric changed from energy factor (EF) to combined energy factor (CEF) in 2015. The CEF value for installed base 2009 is a converted value 

equivalent to 2.67 EF

** Maintenance costs are negligible.

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

Combined Energy Factor 

(lb/kWh)* 3.14 3.18 3.30 3.32 3.49 3.32 3.49 3.32 3.61 3.32 3.61 3.32 3.61

Average Life (yrs) 

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 460 460 480 500 610 500 610 500 640 500 640 500 640

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 630 630 650 660 770 660 770 660 810 660 810 660 810

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)** - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Current standards1 in effect since 2015:

— For standard-size electric units : CEF ≥ 3.73 lb/kWh

— For gas units: CEF ≥ 2.30 lb/kWh

• Remaining efficiency improvement opportunities include:

— Multi-step or modulating heat

— Higher efficiency drum motors

— Inlet air pre-heat

— Better control systems for cycle termination

— Heat pump (for electric clothes dryers)

— Ultrasonic drying (prototype in development at Oak Ridge National Lab)

• EPA developed an ENERGY STAR program for residential clothes dryers, which became 

effective in 2015. In addition, EPA developed an Emerging Technology Award in 2014 to 

recognize advanced high-efficiency clothes dryers introduced to the U.S. market. 

• Standard-size heat pump clothes dryers with CEF of 4.5 currently available in the U.S. 

market. High initial cost and longer drying times have limited market penetration, but some 

utilities are offering rebates to support market penetration. 

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in market incentives, the residential electric clothes dryers 

market will see an increase in adoption of heat pump dryers that improve the typical 

efficiency products.

82

Residential Clothes Dryers

1Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Clothes Dryers. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipment volumes have been on the rise since 2012. Gas dryers 

continue to account for about one-fifth of the market.

83

Residential Clothes Dryers

Source: Appliance Magazine.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

84

Residential Clothes Washers (Front)

*2009 installed base value is equivalent to 2.07 Modified Energy Factor (MEF). The efficiency metric changed from Modified Energy Factor to Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (IMEF) in 2015. 

**2009 installed base value is equivalent to 6.2 Water Factor (WF). The efficiency metric changed from Water Factor to Integrated Water Factor (IWF) in 2015. 

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 3.09 3.66 3.41 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.5 5.6 4.5 5.6 4.5 5.6 4.5 5.6

Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (ft3

/kWh/cycle)* 1.67 2.16 1.84 2.76 2.38 2.92 2.76 3.10 2.92 3.10 2.92 3.10 2.92 3.10

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3

)** 6.5 4.7 4.7 3.2 3.7 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Water Consumption 

(gal/cycle) 20 17 16 14 16 13 14 15 13 15 13 15 13 15

Hot Water Energy 

(kWh/cycle) 0.68 0.21 0.36 0.17 0.24 0.14 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.15

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) 0.15 0.17 0.15 0.21 0.29 0.17 0.21 0.28 0.17 0.28 0.17 0.28 0.17 0.28

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle) 1.02 1.31 1.34 1.22 1.19 1.22 1.22 1.37 1.22 1.37 1.22 1.37 1.22 1.37

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

550 550 600 600 600 600 600 600 700 700 700 700 700 700

700 700 1,000 1,100 1,000 1,200 1,100 1,200 1,200 1,300 1,200 1,300 1,200 1,300

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

700 700 750 750 750 750 750 1350 750 1350 750 1350 750 1350

850 850 1150 1250 1150 1350 1250 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

85

Residential Clothes Washers (Top)

*2009 installed base value is equivalent to 1.2 Modified Energy Factor (MEF). The efficiency metric changed from Modified Energy Factor to Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (IMEF) in 2015. 

**2009 installed base value is equivalent to 12 Water Factor (WF). The efficiency metric changed from Water Factor to Integrated Water Factor (IWF) in 2015. 

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 3 3.28 3.3 3.3 4.5 4.9 3.9 4.9 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.9

Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (ft3

/kWh/cycle)* 0.78 1.14 1.29 1.29 2.06 2.76 1.57 2.76 2.06 2.76 2.06 2.76 2.06 2.76

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3

)** 12.4 9.2 8.4 8.4 4.3 3.5 6.5 3.5 4.3 3.5 4.3 3.5 4.3 3.5

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Water Consumption 

(gal/cycle) 37 30 28 28 19 17 25 17 19 17 19 17 19 17

Hot Water Energy 

(kWh/cycle) 2.25 0.90 0.77 0.77 0.36 0.18 0.71 0.18 0.36 0.18 0.36 0.18 0.36 0.18

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) 0.28 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.15 0.12 0.24 0.12 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.12

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle) 1.31 1.73 1.50 1.50 1.65 1.46 1.51 1.46 1.65 1.46 1.65 1.46 1.65 1.46

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

550 450 400 400 600 750 400 750 500 750 500 750 500 750

700 550 600 600 1,000 1,200 600 1,200 700 1,200 700 1,200 700 1,200

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

700 600 550 550 750 900 550 900 650 900 650 900 650 900

850 700 750 750 1150 1350 750 1350 850 1350 850 1350 850 1350

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• The analysis treats front- and top-loading models separately due to their different energy use characteristics.

• Federal standards1 for standard-capacity clothes washers (≥ 1.6 cubic feet):

• In 2017, around 30% of top-loading models and almost all front-loading models achieve the ENERGY STAR level.

• Energy efficiency improvement opportunities include:

— Higher efficiency motors and higher spin speeds

— Better load sensing for adaptive water fill control

— Reduced water temperature and quantity, while providing equivalent cleaning and rinsing performance

• Maintenance costs include replacement or repair of the drain pump, control board, motor, rubber gaskets, or control 

panel knobs.

• The products on the market with the highest Integrated Modified Energy Factor have significantly larger capacity 

and therefore use more energy per cycle than typical, smaller capacity products but still perform more efficiently on a 

per volume basis.

86

Residential Clothes Washers

Integrated Modified Energy Factor Integrated Water Factor

Top-Loading Front-Loading Top-Loading Front-Loading

Current DOE Standard

(effective 3/7/2015) ≥ 1.29 ≥ 1.84 ≤ 8.4 ≤ 4.7

Current ENERGY STAR

(effective 3/7/2015) ≥ 2.06 ≥ 2.38 ≤ 4.3 ≤ 3.7

Future DOE Standard

(effective 1/1/2018) ≥ 1.57 ≥ 1.84 (no change) ≤ 6.5 ≤ 4.7 (no change)

Future ENERGY STAR

(effective 1/1/2018) ≥ 2.06 (no change) ≥ 2.76 ≤ 4.3 (no change) ≤ 3.2

1Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Clothes Washers. 10 CFR 430.32(g).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipment volumes have returned to pre-housing boom levels. Frontloaders’ market share peaked in 2010 at just under 50% and has since 

declined to around 40%.

87

Residential Clothes Washers

Sources: Appliance Magazine; Residential Clothes Washer Direct Final Rule TSD, EERE, April 2012; ENERGY 

STAR shipments data 2015-2016. Dashed lines indicate extrapolated/interpolated data.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

88

Residential Dishwashers

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) 383 347 307 270 270 225 270 225 270 225 270 225 270 225

Water Consumption (gal/cycle) 6.88 6.23 5.00 3.50 3.50 2.40 3.50 2.40 3.50 2.40 3.50 2.40 3.50 2.40

Water Heating Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)* 249 226 176 125 125 86 125 86 125 86 125 86 125 86

Average Life (yrs)

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)** 365 370 260 320 320 390 320 390 320 390 320 390 320 390

Total Installed Cost (2017$)** 705 710 425 485 485 555 485 555 485 555 485 555 485 555

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case

* Refers to that portion of "Typical Annual Energy Use" that is the energy used to heat water in a separate water heater before it enters the dishwasher. The energy 

used to heat water inside the dishwasher cannot be disaggregated from the total.

** Equipment and installation cost estimates changed significantly between the 2012 DOE analysis, the source for installed base costs, and the 2016 DOE analysis, 

the source for costs in 2017 and later.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note: All values in table reflect 215 cycles/year, as dictated by the test procedure.
Review Draft

• Performance criteria for standard-capacity dishwashers (assumes 215 cycles/year1):

— Federal Standards:

 Jan. 1, 2010: ≤ 355 kWh/yr, ≤ 6.5 gal/cycle (EISA 2007)

 May 30, 2013: ≤ 307 kWh/yr, ≤ 5.0 gal/cycle (DOE Direct Final Rule, published May 2012)

— ENERGY STAR Criteria:

 Aug. 11, 2009 : ≤ 324 kWh/yr, ≤ 5.8 gal/cycle (version 4.0, announced Nov. 2008)

 Jan. 20, 2012: ≤ 295 kWh/yr, ≤ 4.25 gal/cycle (version 5.0, announced April 2011)

 Jan. 29, 2016: ≤ 270 kWh/yr (5% allowance for connected), ≤ 3.5 gal/cycle (version 6.0, announced April 2015)

• ENERGY STAR has maintained a very high market share for several years, so sales-weighted-average efficiency has 

tracked ENERGY STAR levels.

• Test procedures:

— Accounts for motor, dryer, booster heater (if present), and hot water from separate water heater

— Amended test procedure, which took effect May 30, 2013, includes standby and off-mode energy

— ENERGY STAR established a cleaning performance test method; however, cleaning performance reporting is 

currently optional.

• Efficiency improvement opportunities include:

— Better soil sensing 

— Water distribution (small pipes, fine filter, small sump, alternating water use) and controls (flow meter, 

temperature sensor)

— Inline water heater (to minimize sump volume)

— Separate drain pump, high-efficiency, variable-speed circulation pump motor

— Condensation drying (rather than power dry)

89

Residential Dishwashers Return to Table of Contents

1 215 cycles/year is assumed in the current test procedure and current standard. In the 2016 DOE “Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy 

Efficiency Program for Consumer Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Residential Dishwashers” the energy use and economic 

analyses were updated to include RECS 2009 data which resulted in a value of 207 cycles/year. 
Review Draft

Shipments peaked in 2005 during the housing boom, dropped during 

the 2008-2009 recession, and reached a new high in 2016.

90

Residential Dishwashers

Sources: DOE Residential Dishwashers Final Rule Technical Support Document (Table 3.9.2); ENERGY STAR Unit 

Shipment and Market Penetration Report, Calendar Year 2016 Summary; Appliance Magazine

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

91

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces

* DOE's efficiency metric for commercial furnaces accounts only for flue losses, not jacket losses.

**In 2023, the new Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Warm Air Furnaces will take effect. These projections reflect the 2023 minimum 

thermal efficiency requirement for gas-fired furnaces, 81%.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

Thermal Efficiency (%)* 80 80 80 95 81 95 81 95 81 95 81 95

Average Life (yrs) 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 1,050 1,050 1,050 2,450 1,050 2,450 1,050 2,450 1,050 2,450 1,050 2,450 

Total Installed Cost ($) 2,150 2,150 2,150 3,950 2,200 3,950 2,200 3,950 2,200 3,950 2,200 3,950 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)** 170 170 170 180 170 180 170 180 170 180 170 180

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency in 2020.
Review Draft

• Current Federal standard requires minimum 80% thermal efficiency. This metric, 

more commonly called “combustion efficiency” in other contexts, accounts only for 

flue losses, not jacket losses.

— The Federal standard applies to all units manufactured on or after January 1, 

1994 with maximum rated heat input ≥ 225,000 Btu per hour.

— On January 1, 2023, the minimum Federal standard increases to 81% thermal 

efficiency.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a commercial building code in many 

states, stipulates that furnaces that are not within the conditioned space shall not 

have jacket losses exceeding 0.75% of the input rating.

• Commercial furnaces are typically non-condensing with thermal efficiencies ranging 

from 80% to 82%. Recently condensing commercial furnaces have been introduced, 

which achieve up to 95% thermal efficiency. However, condensing models currently 

make up a very small portion of the market.

• Besides capacity, commercial units can differ from residential furnaces in terms of 

the control system (i.e. integration with a Building Management System, twinning, 

or other staging strategies). Commercial systems may also use a heat recovery 

system to pre-heat inlet air. 

• Advanced Case: Slightly increased typical efficiency products in 2020 due to market 

incentives. No significant changes otherwise.

92

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

93

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces

* DOE's efficiency metric for commercial furnaces accounts only for flue losses, not jacket losses.

**In 2023, the new Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Warm Air Furnaces will take effect. These projections reflect the 2023 

minimum thermal efficiency requirement for oil-fired furnaces, 82%.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

Thermal Efficiency (%)* 81 81 82 85 82 82 82 82

Average Life (yrs) 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 4,650 4,650 4,700 5,050 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 

Total Installed Cost ($) 6,550 6,550 6,600 6,750 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,600 

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)** 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Current Federal standard requires minimum 81% thermal efficiency. This metric, 

more commonly called “combustion efficiency” in other contexts, accounts only for 

flue losses, not jacket losses. 

— The Federal standard applies to all units manufactured on or after January 1, 

1994 with maximum rated heat input ≥ 225,000 Btu per hour.

— On January 1, 2023, the minimum Federal standard increases to 82% thermal 

efficiency.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a commercial building code in many 

states, stipulates that furnaces that are not within the conditioned space shall not 

have jacket losses exceeding 0.75% of the input rating.

• Commercial oil-fired furnaces have thermal efficiencies ranging from 81% to 85% 

and are non-condensing (i.e., not designed for condensation of flue gases).

• Besides capacity, commercial units can differ in terms of the control system (i.e. 

integration with a Building Management System, twinning, or other staging 

strategies). Commercial systems may also use a heat recovery system to pre-heat 

inlet air.

• The maintenance cost estimate assumes two cleanings per year.

94

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

95

Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters

* Capacity is output

** Annual Maintenance Cost is negligible

DATA 

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base: 

Small 

Installed 

Base: 

Large 

Small Large Small Large Small Large Small Large Small Large 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h)* 17 170 17 170 17 170 17 170 17 170 17 170

Efficiency (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Average Life (yrs) 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 850 5,375 850 5,375 850 5,375 850 5,375 850 5,375 850 5,375

Total Installed Cost ($) 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)** - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• This analysis examined electric unit heaters.

• Electric unit heaters range in capacity from 2 to 100 kW (7 to 340 kBtu/hr), with 5 to 50 

kW (17 to 170 kBtu/hr) being the most typical units on the market.

• Electric resistance heaters are considered near 100% efficient because there is no heat 

loss through ducts or combustion. 

• Installation time and costs are estimated to be minimal.

96

Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

97

Commercial Electric Boilers

* Capacity is output

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kW)* 165 165 165 165 165 165

Efficiency (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (yrs) 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 9,875 9,850 9,850 9,850 9,850 9,850

Total Installed Cost ($) 14,875 11,750 11,750 11,750 11,750 11,750

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 145 110 110 110 110 110

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• There are currently no federal standards associated with electric boilers.

• The costs shown are for one 165kW unit, which would equate to a steady load of 

approximately 550,000 Btu/hr.

• Service life is determined mainly by water quality. Water conditioning (e.g., filters, 

softeners, de-alkizers, chemical feeders) may be necessary for a given application. 

• Annual maintenance in a typical application would include draining the unit for 

removal of any accumulated scale or sludge buildup.

• Minor end-use inefficiencies for electric boilers result from heat loss through the boiler 

(jacket losses).

98

Commercial Electric Boilers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

99

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers

* The standard level shown here is for small (300 kBtu/h to 2500 kBtu/h) gas-fired hot water commercial packaged boilers, the most common type of 

boiler available on the market.

** DOE's efficiency metric for most types of boilers now accounts for both flue and jacket losses; previously it did not. DOE continues to uses a 

combustion efficiency metric instead for hot water boilers with heat input > 2,500,000 Btu/h.

*** The updated maintenance costs for 2017 and post-2017 are based on the recently issued commercial packaged boilers final rule. The annualized 

maintenance costs estimated in the final rule are based on 2016 RS Means data and differ for condensing vs non-condensing boilers. Appendix 8E of 

the 2016 final rule TSD for commercial packaged boilers provides additional information on how the values are calculated. The cost values in the table 

are for gas-fired hot water CPBs.

Note: In December of 2016, EREE issued a final rule titled Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers. As of October 2017, this rule has not yet been published and therefore these standards are not reflected in the values shown above.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base 

Current 

Standard

*

Typical MidRange High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

Thermal Efficiency (%)** 77 80 85 93 99 85 99 94 99 95 99 95 99 

Average Life (yrs) 30 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 13,150 16,600 22,700 33,250 37,500 22,700 37,500 33,700 37,500 34,250 37,500 34,250 37,500 

Total Installed Cost ($) 20,825 25,800 32,450 42,650 46,750 32,450 46,750 43,100 46,750 43,600 46,750 43,600 46,750 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)*** 1,445 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with corresponding cost increases.
Review Draft

• Commercial packaged gas-fired boilers are classified by:

— Heat input capacity

— Produce steam or hot water

— Draft type (natural draft or not) – for steam boilers

• Most common type is small gas-fired hot water boilers, those with 300,000-2,500,000 Btu/h 

rated heat input.

• Federal standards require thermal efficiency ≥ 77%, 79%, or 80%, depending on type.

• DOE’s efficiency metric, thermal efficiency, now aligns with ASHRAE 90.1 and accounts 

for both flue and jacket losses.

• Large gas-fired hot water boilers i.e., boilers with rated heat input greater than 2,500,000 

Btu/h are required to have combustion efficiency ≥ 82%.

• Similar technologies to the those used in the residential market can be leveraged in the 

commercial arena. The higher efficiency units typically include electronic ignition, power 

burners, and improved heat exchangers. Some also condense water vapor from the flue 

gases to improve heating efficiency.

• DOE issued a Final Rule for Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers on December 28, 2016 that would update the efficiency ratings of gas-fired 

commercial packaged boilers.

• Advanced Case: Condensing gas-fired boilers are expected to dominate the market by 

2030, with corresponding price increases.

100

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

101

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers

* The standard level shown here is for small (300 kBtu/h -2500 kBtu/h) oil-fired hot water commercial packaged boilers, the most common type of oilfired boiler available on the market.

** DOE's efficiency metric for most types of boilers now accounts for both flue and jacket losses; previously it did not. DOE continues to uses a 

combustion efficiency metric instead for hot water boilers with heat input > 2,500,000 Btu/h.

*** The updated maintenance costs for 2017 and post-2017 are based on the recently issued commercial packaged boilers final rule. The annualized 

maintenance costs estimated in the final rule are based on 2016 RS Means data and differ for condensing vs non-condensing boilers. Appendix 8E of 

the 2016 final rule TSD for commercial packaged boilers provides additional information on how the values are calculated. The cost values in the table 

are for oil-fired hot water CPBs.

Note: In December of 2016 EREE issued a final rule titled Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers. As of October 2017, this rule has not yet been published and therefore these standards are not reflected in the values shown above.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard* Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 1,200 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 

Thermal Efficiency (%)** 81 82 85 97 85 97 92 97 92 97 92 97

Average Life (yrs) 30 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 14,250 19,800 22,850 44,550 22,850 44,550 22,850 44,550 22,850 44,550 22,850 44,550

Total Installed Cost ($) 18,625 28,000 31,500 53,250 31,500 53,250 31,500 53,250 31,500 53,250 31,500 53,250

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)*** 1445 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Commercial packaged oil-fired boilers are classified by:

— Heat input capacity

— Produce steam or hot water

• Most common type is small hot water boilers, those with 300,000-2,500,000 Btu/h rated 

heat input.

• DOE’s efficiency metric, thermal efficiency, now aligns with ASHRAE 90.1 and accounts 

for both flue and jacket losses.

• Federal standards require thermal efficiency ≥ 81% for steam boilers and ≥ 82% for hot 

water boilers.

• Exception is large hot water boilers, which must have combustion efficiency ≥ 84%.

• The higher efficiency units typically include improved heat exchangers, and multi-step or 

variable-output power burners.

• Based on current shipment trends, projected shipments of oil-fired CPBs post-2017 are 

expected to decrease with time.

• DOE issued a Final Rule for Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers on December 28, 2016 that would update the efficiency ratings of oil-fired 

commercial packaged boilers.

• Advanced Case: Increased adoption of condensing oil-fired boilers by 2030. However, 

due to low demand and a shrinking market, costs are expected to remain the same.

102

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Commercial Centrifugal Chillers (Water Cooled)

* Capacity is output

**ASHRAE 90.1 data here are for units larger than 400 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2016)

***2017 typical and high efficiency levels determined base on the range of products currently available on the market.

Note: For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance of 

baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. 

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 

90.1** Typical*** High*** Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)*

400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

Efficiency [full-load] 

(kW/ton) 0.66 0.56 0.53 0.45 0.48 0.43 0.44 0.40 0.41 0.39 0.40 0.38

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton) 0.61 0.50 0.37 0.30 0.35 0.28 0.34 0.26 0.33 0.24 0.32 0.23

COP [full-load] 5.4 6.3 6.6 7.8 7.3 8.2 8.0 8.7 8.5 8.9 8.7 9.2

COP [IPLV] 5.9 7.0 9.5 11.7 10.0 12.4 10.5 13.6 10.8 14.7 11.1 15.3

Average Life (yrs) 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton) 325 400 425 575 425 575 425 575 425 575 425 575

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

375 450 475 625 475 625 475 625 475 625 475 625

425 475 500 650 500 650 500 650 500 650 500 650

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

Return to Table of Contents

Higher efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• ASHRAE 90.1-2016 stipulates minimum efficiencies for centrifugal chillers separately from positive displacement 

water-cooled chillers. They are separated into 5 size categories, with categories divided at: 150, 300, 400, and 600 

tons; ASHRAE 90.1-2016 also distinguishes between whether the unit will be optimized for full load (Path A) or 

part load operation (Path B). Data here are for Path A; a Path B chiller may have slightly high full-load 

consumption in exchange for much lower part-load consumption. For example, for a 600 Ton unit:

— Path A: ≥ 0.56 kW/ton full load and ≥0.50 kW/ton IPLV 

— Path B: ≥ 0.585 kW/ton full load and ≥.38 kW/ton IPLV

• Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) recommendations, last updated in Aug 2016, match ASHRAE 

90.1-2016. 

• The highest efficiency centrifugal chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Variable speed drive (VSD) compressors

— Dedicated heat recovery (heat pump chiller)

— Magnetic bearing technology (oil-free operation)

— Greater heat exchanger surface areas; enhanced tube configurations (counterflow)

— Optimized fluid flow velocities

— High efficiency electric motors

— Improved turbomachinery design, resulting in higher compressor efficiency

— Better piping and valving, including electronic expansion valves

— Evaporative condenser for the heat rejection equipment

• Installed costs vary widely depending on equipment needed for installation (e .g. crane) and size of system. This 

is a mature market with centrifugal chillers representing 75% of commercial chiller sales larger than 200 tons.

• Water cooled chiller ratings do not include energy consumption of the cooling tower and therefore are not 

directly comparable to rating for air-cooled chillers.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology are expected to increase 

efficiency without substantially increasing costs. 

104

Commercial Centrifugal Chillers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

105

Commercial Reciprocating Chillers (Air Cooled Only)

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.12 Typical3 High3 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)4

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

Efficiency [full-load] 

(kW/ton)1 1.26 1.19 1.19 1.00 1.15 1.00 1.15 1.00 1.15 1.00 1.15 1.00

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton)1 1.13 0.86 0.86 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.79

COP [full-load]1 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5

COP [IPLV] 1 3.1 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5

Average Life (yrs) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

725 750 750 875 750 875 750 875 750 875 750 875

600 650 650 750 650 750 650 750 650 750 650 750

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

800 850 850 1000 850 1000 850 1000 850 1000 850 1000

700 700 700 925 700 925 700 925 700 925 700 925

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

1 For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance 

of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. 

2 ASHRAE 90.1 data here are for units larger than 150 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2016)

3 2017 typical and high efficiency levels determined base on the range of products currently available on the market.

4 Capacity is output

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Reciprocating chillers are most cost effective for small loads (30-150 ton range). However, 

reciprocating chiller market share continues to be supplanted by screw and scroll chillers. This trend 

has accelerated with the phase out of R-22, which was the refrigerant of choice for reciprocating 

products, which has in turn driven major manufacturers to replace their reciprocating product lines 

with scroll products (rather than redesign reciprocating products for new refrigerants). As a result, 

product options are very limited.

• Reciprocating chillers can be used in either air-cooled or water cooled applications. Reciprocating 

chillers shown in the data are air-cooled. Air-cooled chillers are less efficient than the water-cooled 

models. Listed efficiencies include matched condensers and their associated energy use.

• ASHRAE 90.1-2016 stipulates minimum efficiencies for all air-cooled chillers together, including 

reciprocating chillers, while water-cooled chillers are separated by positive displacement (e.g., 

reciprocating) versus centrifugal models. Air cooled chiller efficiencies are further split by size for 

more and less than 150 tons. ASHRAE 90.1-2016 also distinguishes between whether the unit will be 

optimized for full load (Path A) or part load operation (Path B). Data here are for Path A; a Path B 

chiller may have slightly lower full-load efficiency in exchange for much higher part-load efficiency. 

For example, for a 100 Ton unit:

— Path A: ≥10.1 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B: ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥ 15.8 IPLV EER

• FEMP recommendations for air-cooled chillers (updated August 2016) are:

— Path A (<150 tons): ≥10.4 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B (<150 tons): ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥15.8 IPLV EER (same as 90.1-2016)

• The highest efficiency reciprocating chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Multiple compressors for staged capacity control

— Improved heat-exchangers

106

Commercial Reciprocating Chillers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

107

Commercial Screw Chillers (Air Cooled Only)

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.12 Typical3 High3 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)4

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Efficiency [full-load] 

(kW/ton)1 1.26 1.19 1.18 0.94 1.11 0.91 0.99 0.86 0.93 0.77 0.89 0.73

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton)1 1.13 0.86 0.84 0.57 0.77 0.53 0.65 0.49 0.61 0.43 0.59 0.39

COP [full-load]1 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.7 3.2 3.9 3.6 4.1 3.8 4.6 3.9 4.8

COP [IPLV] 1 3.1 4.1 4.2 6.2 4.5 6.6 5.4 7.2 5.7 8.2 6.0 9.0

Average Life (yrs) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

525 725 725 800 725 800 725 800 725 800 725 800

650 825 825 900 825 900 825 900 825 900 825 900

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

725 800 800 900 800 900 800 900 800 900 800 900

775 975 975 1,050 975 1,050 975 1,050 975 1,050 975 1,050

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

1 For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance 

of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. 

2 ASHRAE 90.1 data here are for units larger than 150 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2016)

3 2017 typical and high efficiency levels determined base on the range of products currently available on the market.

4 Capacity is output

Return to Table of Contents

Higher efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Screw chillers are common in 150 - 500 ton capacities, but are most cost effective for small (<300 tons) 

loads; screw chillers dominate the current market for small to mid-size chillers.

• Screw chillers can be used in either air-cooled or water cooled applications. Screw chillers shown in 

the data are air-cooled. Air-cooled chillers are less efficient than the water-cooled models. Listed 

efficiencies include matched condensers and their associated energy use.

• ASHRAE 90.1-2016 stipulates minimum efficiencies for all air-cooled chillers together, including 

screw chillers, while water cooled chillers are separated by positive displacement (e.g., screw) versus 

centrifugal models. Air cooled chiller efficiencies are further split by size for more and less than 150 

tons. 90.1-2016 also distinguishes between whether the unit will be optimized for full load (Path A) 

or part load operation (Path B). Data here are for Path A; a Path B chiller may have slightly lower 

full-load efficiency in exchange for much higher part-load efficiency. For example, for a 100 Ton 

unit:

— Path A: ≥10.1 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B: ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥ 15.8 IPLV EER

• FEMP recommendations for air-cooled chillers (updated August 2016) are:

— Path A (<150 tons): ≥10.4 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B (<150 tons): ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥15.8 IPLV EER (same as 90.1-2016)

• The highest efficiency screw chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Variable speed compressors and/or multiple compressors

— Economizers

— Improved heat-exchangers

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology are expected to 

increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs. 

108

Commercial Screw Chillers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

109

Commercial Scroll Chillers (Air-Cooled Only)

1 For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance 

of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. 

2 ASHRAE 90.1 data here are for units smaller than 150 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2016)

3 2017 typical, mid, and high efficiency levels determined base on the range of products currently available on the market.

4 Capacity is output

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.12 Typical3 High3 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)4 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140

Efficiency [full-load] 

(kW/ton)1 1.23 1.19 1.16 1.10 1.14 1.08 1.08 1.03 1.04 0.99 0.99 0.94

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton)1

0.99 0.88 0.77 0.72 0.75 0.70 0.71 0.66 0.69 0.63 0.67 0.60

COP [full-load]1

2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7

COP [IPLV] 1

3.7 4.0 4.6 4.9 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.1 5.6 5.3 5.8

Average Life (yrs) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

475 650 700 800 700 800 700 800 700 800 700 800

575 800 850 950 850 950 850 950 850 950 850 950

Total Installed Cost ($/ton) 725 775 825 925 825 925 825 925 825 925 825 925

825 975 1,025 1,125 1,025 1,125 1,025 1,125 1,025 1,125 1,025 1,125

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Return to Table of Contents

Higher efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Scroll chillers range in size from ~20 tons to ~200 tons and can be used in either air-cooled or water cooled 

applications. They are the most common type of chiller for small chiller plants. The scroll chillers shown in 

the data are air-cooled, which is most common. Air-cooled chillers are less efficient than the water-cooled 

models. Listed efficiencies include matched condensers and their associated energy use.

• ASHRAE 90.1-2016 stipulates minimum efficiencies for all air-cooled chillers together, including scroll 

chillers, while water cooled chillers are separated by positive displacement (e.g., scroll) versus centrifugal 

models. Air cooled chiller efficiencies are distinct for more and less than 150 tons. 90.1-2016 also 

distinguishes between whether the unit will be optimized for full load (Path A) or part load operation (Path 

B). Data here are for Path A; a Path B chiller may have slightly lower full-load efficiency in exchange for 

much higher part-load efficiency. For example, for a 100 Ton unit:

— Path A: ≥10.1 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B: ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥ 15.8 IPLV EER

• FEMP recommendations for air-cooled chillers (updated Aug. 2016) are:

— Path A (<150 tons): ≥10.4 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B (<150 tons): ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥15.8 IPLV EER (same as 90.1-2016)

• The highest efficiency scroll chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Multiple compressors for staged capacity control

— Improved heat-exchangers

— Variable speed compressor (or other modulation controls)

• With the phase out of R-22, manufacturers have replaced many of their small reciprocating chiller 

products with equivalent scroll products, making them a primary choice for small tonnage applications.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology are expected to increase 

efficiency without substantially increasing costs. 

110

Commercial Scroll Chillers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

111

Commercial Gas-Fired Chillers (Water-Cooled, Direct-Fired Only)

1 For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance 

of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. For the 2012 

analysis, IPLV was not evaluated and is therefore not available (NA). 

2 Capacity is output

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base: 

Absorption

Installed Base: 

Engine-Driven

ASHRAE 90.1 

Absorption

CA Title 24 - Engine

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Typical Capacity (tons)2

150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400

COP [full-load] 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.8

COP [IPLV] NA NA 1.0 2.0 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6

Average Life (yrs) 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750

900 850 850 850 900 850 900 850 900 850 900 850 900 850

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850

1,100 1,050 975 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

20 35 20 35 20 35 20 35 20 35 20 35 20 35

35 50 35 50 35 50 35 50 35 50 35 50 35 50

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Gas-fired chillers are available as either air-cooled (~25-50 tons) or water-cooled (150+ tons). This 

analysis covers only water-cooled chillers of two varieties: absorption and engine-driven vapor 

compression (direct-fired only; indirect steam or hot water driven units are excluded).

• Direct gas firing provides high enough temperatures to operate double effect absorption chillers, 

which operate at a 50-60% higher COP than single effect systems. Triple effect chillers, though not 

commercially available, can boost cooling COP 30-50% beyond double effect chillers. York, Trane, 

and others have worked on prototype direct-fired triple effect absorption chillers, but prohibitively 

high cost of advanced high heat/corrosion-resistant materials required for triple effect absorption 

chillers suggest that this technology will not likely have an impact on the market in the near-term.

• Gas-fired engine-driven chillers pair conventional vapor compression systems(typically screw or 

centrifugal compressors) with natural gas powered-reciprocating engines. They exhibit higher peak 

cooling COP than absorbers, and engine modulation results in better part load performance. Future 

efficiency improvements for engine-driven chillers are not anticipated. Engine driven chillers allow 

the opportunity to recover waste heat for useful purposes. 

• Maintenance costs for engine driven chillers are higher than for other chillers are they include all the 

typical components of a vapor compression chiller in addition to an engine; The engine maintenance 

costs vary depending on the annual run hours of the unit. 

• Limited sales data suggest that the U.S. market for gas-fired chillers is very limited and is mostly for 

replacement units, not for new installations. Recent increases in electric chiller efficiency has 

narrowed the operating cost differential with gas chillers. Asia has the majority of the global gasfired chiller market. 

• Gas-fired chiller installations are particularly valuable in locations where electric rates are high and 

gas prices are low (i.e., low spark spread), where digester or landfill gas sources are available, or 

where waste heat sources are available (e.g., an industrial process or microturbine CHP system) that 

could be used with a hybrid direct/indirect-fired absorption chiller to offset the use of natural gas. 

112

Commercial Gas-Fired Chillers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

113

Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners

DATA

2012 2017 2020*** 2030  2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR**  High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Output Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Efficiency (EER)* 10.6 11.2 11.3 11.7 12.8 11.8 12.8 12.2 12.8 12.4 12.8 12.6 12.8

Part Load Efficiency (IEER)* 12.4 - 11.6 11.8 21.5 13.1 21.5 16.0 21.5 16.5 21.5 17.5 21.5

Average Life (yrs) 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,650 10,350 7,150 10,350 7,150 10,350 7,150 10,350 7,150 10,350

Total Installed Cost ($) 8,800 8,800 8,800 9,400 14,900 10,250 14,900 10,250 14,900 10,250 14,900 10,250 14,900

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310

Return to Table of Contents

Higher efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.

* Values shown are for air-cooled units with either electric resistance heating or no heating within the same enclosure.

** In 2018 the ENERGY STAR levels will change to 12.2 EER and 14.0 IEER. 

*** In 2018, new energy conservation standards for Small (<135 kBtu/h) Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment will take effect. 

At this time the DOE-regulated metric will change from EER to IEER, and the minimum IEER will be 12.9.

**** In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Small (<135 kBtu/h) Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment will take effect. 

These projections reflect the 2023 minimum efficiency requirement, 14.8 IEER.
Review Draft

• This analysis focused on small air-cooled commercial packaged rooftop air conditioners (90 kBtu/h 

or 7.5 tons), though there are also standards for many other types of commercial air conditioners.

• Amended standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes will take effect in 2018. More 

stringent standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes will take effect in 2023. 

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more costeffective variable speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially 

increasing costs. 

114

Cooling Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Heating Type

Federal Standard

Effective 1/1/2010 

Min. EER

ENERGY STAR version 2.2 

Effective 1/1/2011

Min. EER Min. IEER

Small

( ≥ 65 and < 135)

Electric resistance 

or none

11.2 11.7 11.8

Any other type 11.0 11.5 11.6

Large

(≥ 135 and < 240)

Electric resistance 

or none

11.0 11.7 11.8

Any other type 10.8 11.5 11.6

Air-Cooled Commercial Packaged Air Conditioners

Return to Table of Contents Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners
Review Draft

115

Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Driven Rooftop Air Conditioners

* Only one product available in 2012, market has grown slightly in years since. Typical capacity and COP for 2017 and later are averages of units 

currently available.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (tons) 18 11 11 11 11 11

Heating COP 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

Cooling COP 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Average Life (yrs) 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton)

2,850 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400

3,450 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

3,250 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800

4,250 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 62 62 62 62 62 62

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• There are only a few gas-fired engine-driven rooftop units currently available in the US 

market. The first unit was introduced in 2010. It is an 11 ton packaged heat pump with 

dual scroll compressors, variable refrigerant flow, and a variable speed supply fan. 

Engine coolant heat recovery improves the heating mode COP. 

• There are currently no Federal requirements on gas-fired engine-driven rooftop air 

conditioners or heat pumps.

• Annual sales of the engine-driven rooftop heat pump are estimated at less than 5,000 

units per year.

116

Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Driven Rooftop Air Conditioners/Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

117

Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps

* Values shown are for air-cooled units with either electric resistance heating or no heating within the same enclosure.

** In 2018 the ENERGY STAR levels will change to 11.8 EER, 12.8 IEER, and 3.4 COP. 

*** These efficiency levels reflect DOE's energy conservation standards for Small Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment with a 

2018 compliance deadline. In 2018 the DOE-regulated metric will switch from EER to IEER, and the minimum IEER will be set at 12.2.

  In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Small Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment will take effect. These 

projections reflect the 2023 minimum efficiency requirements IEER of 14.1 and COP of 3.4.

DATA

2012 2017 2020** * 2030**** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR** High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Efficiency (EER)* 10.2 11.0 11.2 11.3 13.1 11.2 13.1 11.7 13.1 11.9 13.1 12.1 13.1

Part Load Efficiency (IEER) 12.0 - 11.3 11.4 20.3 12.4 20.3 15.0 20.3 15.5 20.3 16.5 20.3

COP (Heating) 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.7

Average Life (yrs) 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 6,050 7,000 7,100 7,150 11,000 7,750 11,000 8,750 11,000 8,750 11,000 8,750 11,000

Total Installed Cost ($) 7,550 9,900 10,100 10,200 16,050 11,150 16,050 12,750 16,050 12,750 16,050 12,750 16,050

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310

Return to Table of Contents

Higher efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• This analysis focused on small air-cooled commercial packaged rooftop heat pumps (90 kBtu/h or 7.5 

tons), though there are also standards for many other types of commercial heat pumps.

• Amended standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes will take effect in 2018. More stringent 

standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes will take effect in 2023.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more cost-effective 

variable speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs. 

118

Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps

Cooling Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Heating Type

Federal Standard

Effective 1/1/2010

ENERGY STAR version 2.2

Effective 1/1/2011

Min. EER Min. COP 

at 47°F Min. EER Min. IEER Min. COP at 47°F

Small

( ≥ 65 and < 135)

Electric resistance 

or none

11.0 3.3 11.3 11.4 3.35

Any other type 10.8 3.3 – – –

Large

(≥ 135 and < 240)

Electric resistance 

or none

10.6 3.2 10.9 11.0 3.25

Any other type 10.4 3.2 – – –

Air-Cooled Commercial Packaged Heat Pumps

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

119

Commercial Ground Source Heat Pumps

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical Mid High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48

COP (Heating)* 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.8 4.0

EER (Cooling)** 12.7 14.1 17.4 19.7 22.1 17.4 22.1 18.0 22.1 18.5 22.1 19.0 22.1

Average Life (yrs)

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 8,500 4,750 5,550 6,100 6,700 5,550 6,700 5,550 6,700 5,550 6,700 5,550 6,700

Total Installed Cost ($)

16,500 14,750 15,550 16,100 16,700 15,550 16,700 15,550 16,700 15,550 16,700 15,550 16,700

37,500 21,750 22,550 23,100 23,700 22,550 23,700 22,550 23,700 22,550 23,700 22,550 23,700

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

* COP values listed are assessed at a "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, DOE sets 

standards at a "water loop" test condition. The AHRI directory lists COP ratings at both sets of test conditions and is used to convert between them 

where necessary. 

** EER values listed are assessed at a full-load "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, 

DOE sets standards at a full-load "water loop" test condition. The AHRI directory lists EER ratings at all sets of test conditions and is used to convert 

between them where necessary.

Note: Residential and commercial GSHPs are very similar - the main difference in data presented is the different capacity (3-ton vs 4-ton) and slightly 

higher installation costs for commercial. DOE does not distinguish between residential and commercial units in its regulations.

Return to Table of Contents

Higher efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• The most common commercial ground source heat pump systems are closed-loop in which water or antifreeze solution is circulated through plastic pipes buried underground. Commercial water-to-air heat 

pumps (WAHPs) range in size from 1 ton or less to over 500 tons depending on whether a distributed or 

centralized architecture is used. Distributed systems are more prevalent.

• Most geothermal WAHPs are rated for capacity and efficiency based on the ISO 13256-1 standard. Heating 

and cooling efficiency measurements under this standard include input energy for fans and pumps on a 

proportional basis that only includes that power required to transport air and liquid through the heat pump. 

The reason for this method is to simplify comparisons between heat pumps and to allow equipment to be 

optimized for real world conditions without suffering rating penalties. Real world energy use will exceed 

ratings predictions as a result of higher fluid static pressure requirements.

• ISO 13256-1 cooling rating conditions call for 77F entering water temperature and 80.6F entering air 

temperature. More typical peak design criteria would be 80-90F entering water temperature and 75F 

entering air temperature. As a result, ISO 13256-1 rated cooling efficiency would be higher than typical 

design peak operation.

• Some WAHPs include efficiency data for a part load operating condition as allowed by ISO 13256-1 for 

multiple stage or variable speed compressors. No seasonal energy efficiency metric (analogous to SEER or 

IEER) currently applies to WAHPs. The annual performance of a geothermal WAHP system can vary more 

widely than for other system types due to the large influence of ground loop design and characteristics.

• The ENERGY STAR® criteria for ground source heat pumps apply only to residential applications.

• Installation cost is for a closed loop system and includes necessary accessories. The ground loop heat 

exchanger and distribution pumping systems represent a majority of the installation cost.

• Low end WAHPs utilize single stage compressors. Higher efficiency units incorporate multiple stage or 

variable speed compressor controls to improve efficiency as well as humidity and temperature control. 

Variable speed electronically commutated (EC) fan motors also improve overall energy efficiency.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more advanced 

compressors, fan motors) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs.

120

Commercial Ground Source Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

121

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

*Different levels of standby loss were not included in this analysis. 

**The range of retail and installed costs represent the range from replacement market to new construction market. 

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Storage Capacity (gal) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199

Thermal Efficiency (%) 81 80 82 94 99 82 99 92 99 95 99 96 99

Average Life (yrs) 13 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)**

3,400 3,300 3,450 3,950 4,050 3,450 4,050 3,300 4,050 3,300 4,050 3,300 4,050

4,200 4,100 4,300 4,850 4,950 4,300 4,950 4,100 4,950 4,100 4,950 4,100 4,950

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)**

4,200 4,150 4,300 5,450 5,550 4,300 5,550 4,350 5,550 4,350 5,550 4,350 5,550

6,050 5,950 6,150 6,500 6,600 6,150 6,600 6,150 6,600 6,150 6,600 6,150 6,600

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270

Higher typical efficiencies with the same equipment costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency. 

Installation costs are higher for condensing than for non-condensing in replacement installations.
Review Draft

• Input capacity ≥ 75,000 Btu/h, and < 4,000 Btu/h per gallon of stored water 

• Federal standard1:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 80%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h) : Input Rate/800 + 110 × (Rated Volume)1/2

• ENERGY STAR requirements:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 94%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h): 0.84 × [(Input Rate/800) + 110 × (Rated Volume)1/2]

• Baseline units are typically constructed similarly to residential units, though with higher input 

capacities (and often higher storage volumes).

• High-efficiency units include condensing heat exchangers (typically stainless or enameled 

steel) to extract additional heat by condensing water vapor in flue gases. Condensing units also 

include an inducer fan system or power burner. The heat exchanger is typically contained 

within the tank, but some designs consist of an external heating module attached to a storage 

tank. 

• Maintenance consists of sediment and scale removal once or twice per year. Estimated cost of 

$270 per year for annual maintenance.

• Advanced Case: Increasing adoption of condensing technology from 2020 to 2030 due to 

market incentives, with costs adjusting so that the condensing units in 2030 will not be higher 

in price due to technology advances and increased economies of scale. However, market will 

experience an increase in installation cost due to the adoption of condensing units. In 

replacement installations, installation costs are higher for condensing units than noncondensing units. 

122

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

1 Energy Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Water Heaters, Hot Water Supply Boilers

and Unfired Hot Water Storage Tanks. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Annual shipments have fluctuated from 99,000 units in 2000 to 

80,000 units in 2012, back to 99,000 units in 2016. 

123

Source: http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Commercial-Storage-Water-Heaters-Historical-Data.aspx

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

124

Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

*Different levels of standby loss were not included in this analysis. 

**The range of retail equipment and installed costs represents the range from replacement market to new construction market. 

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Storage Capacity (gal) 119 119 119 119 119 119 119

Typical Input Capacity (kW) 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Thermal Efficiency (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)**

2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200

Total Installed Cost (2017$)**

3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800

3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Federal standard1:

— Maximum standby loss (%/h) : 0.30 + 27/Measured Storage Volume

— Minimum thermal efficiency: no standard, but all units ≥ 98% anyway

• Storage capacity: typically 50 to 120 gallons, though smaller and larger units exist for 

specialized applications

• Commercial units are typically constructed similar to residential units, though with 

higher input capacities (and often higher storage volumes).

• There is very little variation in thermal efficiency on the market; variation in standby 

loss is typically due to tank design and insulation thickness. 

• Maintenance consists of sediment and scale removal once or twice per year. Estimated 

cost of $50 for annual maintenance. 

125

Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

1 Energy Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Water Heaters, Hot Water Supply Boilers

and Unfired Hot Water Storage Tanks. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

126

Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

Annual shipments increased more than 50 percent over 12 years from 

44 thousand units in 2000 to 67 thousand units in 2012. Since 2012, 

shipments have increased by 89%, with the largest increase of 44% 

occurring in 2016.

Source: http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Commercial-Storage-Water-Heaters-Historical-Data.aspx

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

127

Commercial Heat Pump Water Heaters

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Water Flow Rate (gal/min) 34 34 34 34 34 34

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 171 171 171 171 171 171

Coefficient of Performance (COP) 3.9 3.9 3.9 4 4.2 4.4

Average Life (yrs) 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 47,100 47,100 47,100 47,100 47,100 47,100

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 50,950 50,950 50,950 50,950 50,950 50,950

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 100 100 100 100 100 100

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

128

• There are no integrated commercial HPWHs (CHPWHs) on the market (i.e., heat pump 

module and storage tank combined in one unit); all units are add-on units which are typically 

designed to be used with a storage tank(s).

• CHPWHs serve only a small portion of the commercial water heating (CWH) market. Three 

manufacturers (including only one major CWH manufacturer) sell CHPWHs.

• CHPWHs can extract heat from either air or water for heating potable water (“air-source” or 

“water-source”). The capacity of air-source CHPWHs falls at lower ambient air temperatures.

• Air-source CHPWHs cool the surrounding air, which can be desirable when installed indoors 

in applications with a year-round cooling load (e.g., a commercial kitchen).

• Output capacities for CHPWHs range from 17 kW to over 70 kW for air-source units and over 

600 kW for water-source units.

• Some commercial applications require water as hot as 180 °F, such as dishwashing; however, 

most CHPWHs cannot deliver hot water at temperatures higher than 150 °F. 

• There are no current Federal standards for CHPWHs, but DOE prescribes a test procedure for 

determining COPh for CHPWHs.

• ENERGY STAR levels for CWH equipment are under revision. The public final draft of the 

updated specification includes a COPh level of 3.0 for CHPWHs. 

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more 

cost-effective variable speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without 

substantially increasing costs. 

Commercial Heat Pump Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

129

Commercial Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

*Different levels of standby loss were not included in this analysis. 

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Storage Capacity 

(gal) 70 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Thermal Efficiency (%) 79 80 81 82 81 82 81 82 81 82 81 82

Average Life (yrs) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Input capacity ≥ 105,000 Btu/h, and < 4,000 Btu/h per gallon of stored water 

• Federal standard1:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 80%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h): Input Rate/800 + 110 × (Rated Volume)1/2

• Condensing units do not exist, thus the highest thermal efficiency on the market is 86%.

• Commercial units are typically constructed similar to residential units, though with 

higher input capacities (and often higher storage volumes).

• Maintenance consists of sediment and scale removal once or twice per year. Estimated 

cost of $100–$200 per year for one or two cleanings performed by a plumber.

• The market for commercial oil-fired storage water heaters is very small; shipments are 

approximately 3% of shipments for commercial gas-fired storage water heaters.

130

Commercial Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

1 Energy Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Water Heaters, Hot Water Supply Boilers

and Unfired Hot Water Storage Tanks. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

131

Commercial Electric Booster Water Heaters

* Maintenance costs negligible.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (gal)

6 6 6 6 6 6

16 16 16 16 16 16

Thermal Efficiency (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (yrs)

3 3 3 3 3 3

10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 

1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300

2,800 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 

1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

3,000 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)* - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

132

Commercial Gas-fired Booster Water Heaters

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal)

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Thermal Efficiency (%) 80 80 80 91 80 91 80 91 80 91 80 91

Average Life (yrs)

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 

4,700 4,900 4,900 8,000 4,900 8,000 4,900 8,000 4,900 8,000 4,900 8,000

6,800 7,700 7,700 9,500 7,700 9,500 7,700 9,500 7,700 9,500 7,700 9,500

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 

5,000 5,200 5,200 8,300 5,200 8,300 5,200 8,300 5,200 8,300 5,200 8,300

7,100 8,000 8,000 9,800 8,000 9,800 8,000 9,800 8,000 9,800 8,000 9,800

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Booster water heaters are installed, often at the point of use, in series with the main 

service water heating system to boost service water temperatures. The main service 

water heating system may provide 110-140 °F water, and the booster water heater may 

increase that temperature to 180-195 °F. Typical commercial applications for booster 

water heaters include commercial dishwashers, laundromats, hospitals, and car washes.

• Commercial booster water heaters are regulated by DOE as either storage or 

instantaneous water heaters, depending on the ratio of input capacity to storage 

volume. Units with input capacity < 4,000 Btu/h per gallon of stored water are storage 

water heaters; all other units are instantaneous water heaters.

• DOE’s regulations do not currently include standards for electric instantaneous water 

heaters, but standards are included for electric storage water heaters, gas-fired 

instantaneous water heaters, and gas-fired storage water heaters. 

• Booster water heaters typically have short lifetimes because of high usage and extreme 

temperatures.

• Shipments are small due to the limited number of applications.

133

Commercial Booster Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

134

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

*Commercial gas-fired instantaneous water heaters are categorized into two groups: tankless water heater and hot water supply boiler. Tankless units are 

similar in design to residential tankless units. The hot water supply boiler has a much higher input and is similar in design to boilers. The large variation of 

total input capacity and design causes a large range of costs. The low and high range of retail and installed costs represent the differences in design, as well 

as the cost ranges arising from replacement versus new construction markets.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 

250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399

Thermal Efficiency (%) 80 80 92 94 98 92 98 92 98 94 98 96 98

Average Life (yrs)

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)*

1,900 1,900 2,200 2,250 2,300 2,200 2,300 2,200 2,300 2,200 2,300 2,200 2,300

4,800 4,800 8,450 8,800 9,150 8,450 9,150 8,450 9,150 8,450 9,150 8,450 9,150

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)*

2,550 2,550 3,700 3,750 3,800 3,700 3,800 3,700 3,800 3,700 3,800 3,700 3,800

11,000 11,000 11,300 11,650 12,050 11,300 12,050 11,300 12,050 11,300 12,050 11,300 12,050

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2017$)* 40 40 100 100 110 100 110 100 110 100 110 100 110

Higher typical efficiencies with the same equipment costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency. 

Installation costs are higher for condensing than for non-condensing in replacement installations.
Review Draft

• Input capacity ≥ 200,000 Btu/h, and ≥ 4,000 Btu/h per gallon of stored water 

• Federal standard1:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 80%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h): Input Rate/800 + 110 x (Rated Volume)1/2

• ENERGY STAR requirements:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 94% 

• Wall-mounted (“tankless”) units typically top out at ~400,000 Btu/h and are similar in design to residential 

tankless units. Floor-mounted units (“circulating” or “volume” water heaters) are similar in design to boilers 

and can have input capacities in the millions of Btu/h. Floor-mounted units are typically installed with a 

storage tank.

• Despite high available input capacities, some installations use multiple units staged together, which may 

have reliability and/or efficiency benefits.

• Similar to storage water heaters, higher efficiencies are achieved with condensing operation, which requires 

a condensing heat exchanger and inducer fan or power burner. Some units include both non-condensing 

and condensing heat exchangers, while others include a single condensing heat exchanger.

• When replacing a storage water heater with an instantaneous water heater, there may be significant 

additional costs to upsize the gas supply line and change the venting.

• Advanced Case: Increasing adoption of condensing technology from 2020 to 2030, with costs adjusting so 

that the condensing units in 2030 will not be higher in price due to technology advances and increased 

economies of scale. However, market will experience an increase in installation cost due to the adoption of 

condensing units. In replacement installations, installation costs are higher for condensing units than noncondensing units. 

135

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

1 Energy Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Water Heaters, Hot Water Supply Boilers

and Unfired Hot Water Storage Tanks. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

136

Commercial Solar Water Heaters

* Costs are for an indirect (active closed loop) system, including tank and backup heater. Smaller capacity/cost systems are typical for southern & 

western states (>2/3 of the current market). Higher capacity/cost systems are required in colder/cloudier regions.

** ENERGY STAR requires OG-300 rating from SRCC. Most installations use SRCC rated collectors; a high efficiency option is not applicable.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base

Typical / 

ENERGY 

STAR**

Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.) 83 83 83 83 83 83

Solar Fraction (SF) 0.5 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56

Solar Energy Factor (SEF) 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Average Life (yrs) 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)*

8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300

9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500

Total Installed Cost (2017$)*

11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000

13,100 13,100 13,100 13,100 13,100 13,100

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 25 25 25 25 25 25

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

137

Commercial Solar Water Heaters

• Solar water heaters are not subject to federal energy conservation standards, the ENERGY 

STAR requirements are:

• Commercial solar water heaters are typically custom designed for a specific installation.

• One major CWH manufacturer sells a commercial integrated solar water heater similar to 

residential designs that includes an indirect solar water heat exchanger and a gas-fired backup 

heat exchanger, and this model is certified to the Solar Rating and Certification Corporation 

(SRCC)’s OG-300, “Operating Guidelines and Minimum Standards for Certifying Solar Water 

Heating Systems.” 

• Commercial solar water heaters may include backup heating, from sources such as electric 

resistance or hydronic heat (supplied from a gas-fired boiler or geothermal heat pump).

• Storage volumes of tanks for commercial solar water heaters can span from 140 gallons to 

over 2,000 gallons.

• SRCC’s OG-300 can be used to certify commercial systems, but most commercial systems are 

larger and unique, so this certification program is mostly used for residential solar water 

heaters.

— Many incentive programs require that solar collectors for commercial systems be certified 

to SRCC’s certification program for collectors, OG-100.

Applicable 

Products

Backup 

Fuel

ENERGY STAR 

Requirement Test Method

Whole-home 

solar units

Gas SEF ≥ 1.2 SRCC – OG-300: Operating Guidelines and Minimum 

Electric SEF ≥ 1.8 Standards for Certifying Solar Water Heating Systems 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

138

Commercial Natural Gas Ranges with Griddle and Ovens

*ENERGY STAR does not cover combination products that include griddles, ranges, and ovens in one single package. The ENERGY STAR levels provided 

here reflect specifications for individual products. Range tops are not covered by ENERGY STAR.

** Products in the commercial cooking market generally do not scale in price with relation to cooking efficiency. Distributors also do not provide this 

information.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR* High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Input Capacity (kBtu) 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 30 30 38 52 30 52 33 52 36 52 40 52

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 35 35 46 50 35 50 39 50 42 50 47 50

Range - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 30 30 N/A 40 30 40 33 40 36 40 39 40

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(Btu/h/ft2

) 3,000 3,000 2,650 1,080 3,000 1,180 2,700 1,180 2,450 1,180 2,200 1,180

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) 18,000 18,000 12,000 7,180 18,000 7,180 16,200 7,180 14,600 7,180 13,150 7,180

Range - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) 3,600 3,600 N/A 1,900 3,600 1,900 3,250 1,900 2,950 1,900 2,650 1,900

Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)** 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)* – – – – – – – – – – – –

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

139

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR* High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Input Capacity (kW) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 65 70 70 86 70 86 72 86 74 86 76 86

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 65 65 N/A 80 65 80 67 80 69 80 71 80

Range - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 75 75 N/A 85 75 85 77 85 80 85 82 85

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(kW/ft2

) 0.44 0.34 0.32 0.20 0.34 0.20 0.32 0.20 0.29 0.20 0.27 0.20

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (kW) 1.50 1.50 1.00 0.90 1.50 0.90 1.40 0.90 1.30 0.90 1.21 0.90

Range - Idle Energy Rate (kW)** N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)*** 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)**** – – – – – – – – – – – –

*ENERGY STAR does not cover combination products that include griddles, ranges, and ovens in one single package. The ENERGY STAR levels provided 

here reflect specifications for individual products. Range tops are not covered by ENERGY STAR.

**No data on electric range top idle energy rates.

*** Products in the commercial cooking market generally do not scale in price with relation to cooking efficiency. Distributors also do not provide this 

information.

**** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Commercial Electric Ranges with Griddle and Ovens Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Combined product that typically includes 2-6 range tops, a 24 in. x 24 in. griddle surface, and one or 

two half- or full-size ovens. 

• Combined product is not covered by ENERGY STAR. However, the individual product ENERGY 

STAR specifications are provided below.

• ENERGY STAR does not provide certification for range tops.

• There are no Federal standards for commercial cooking products.

• Product pricing in this market does not scale with efficiency, but rather depend on a number of other 

factors such as brand name, aesthetics, and additional features.

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives are expected to drive efficiency improvements. 

However, because cost does not scale with efficiency, there is no significant expected change in cost. 

140

Product ENERGY STAR 

Requirements

Gas Electric

Griddle

Cooking Energy Efficiency ≥ 38% ≥ 70%

Normalized Idle Energy Rate ≤ 2,650 Btu/h per 

ft2

≤ 0.320 kW per ft2

Oven

Cooking Energy Efficiency ≥ 46% ≥ 71%

Idle Energy Rate ≤ 12,000 Btu/h Half size: ≤1.00 kW

Full size: ≤1.60 kW

Commercial Ranges with Griddle and Ovens Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

141

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

State 

Standards Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Interior Volume (ft3

) 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4

Maximum Idle Energy Rate (W) 900 856 856 297 154 856 154 685 154 548 154 438 154

Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 2,500 3,850 3,850 4,200 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 2,500 3,850 3,850 4,200 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)* – – – – – – – – – – – – –

* Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Used in commercial kitchens to keep food warm until it is served.

• Many shapes and sizes, but interior volumes around 21.4 ft3 typical in many settings.

• Annual unit energy consumption can range from < 1,000 to > 30,000 kWh/y, depending on 

size, efficiency, and usage.

• Energy performance metric is “Idle Energy Consumption Rate” in Watts, measured using 

ASTM Standard F2140-11.

• No Federal standards, but eight identical State standards, first took effect in California in 2006, 

now considered the typical or “baseline” product. ENERGY STAR version 2.0 took effect 

October 1, 2011.

• Maximum Idle Energy Consumption Rate for products 12 ≤ V < 28:

— State standards: ≤ 40 × V (baseline)

— ENERGY STAR: ≤ 2.0 × V + 254 (about 65% below baseline)

where V is interior volume in ft3.

• The most efficient products are about 80% below baseline.

• Energy savings achieved with insulation, automatic door closers, magnetic door gaskets, and 

Dutch doors (half-doors).

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives are expected to drive efficiency improvements. 

However, because cost does not scale with efficiency, there is no significant expected change 

in cost. 

142

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

143

Appendix A

Data Sources

Navigant Consulting, Inc.

1200 19 St. NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

(202) 973-2400

www.navigantconsulting.com

A-1

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces

A-2

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

(North)

High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Navigant Navigant EERE

Navigant

AFUE (%) Navigant Navigant EERE EERE

ENERGY 

STAR 

v4.1

AHRI

Electric Consumption 

(kWh/yr)

EERE/

Navigant Average Life (yrs) EERE 2015

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

North & Rest of Country
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces

A-3

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) Navigant EERE

Navigant

AFUE (%) Navigant EERE Navigant ENERGY 

STAR v4.1 AHRI

Electric Consumption (kWh) EERE EERE 2011

Average Life (yrs) EERE EERE 2015

Retail Equipment Cost ($) EERE EERE 2011

Total Installed Cost ($) EERE EERE 2011

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) EERE EERE 2011
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Gas-Fired Boilers

A-4

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) EERE 2007 EERE 2015 (Section 5.4.1 of the TSD)

Navigant

AFUE (%) EERE 2007/ 

Navigant EERE 2007 EERE 2007 AHRI 

Database

ENERGY 

STAR v3.0

AHRI 

Database

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($) EERE 2007

EERE 2015 (LCC Analysis Spreadsheet "Statistics" tab)

Total Installed Cost ($) EERE 2007

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) EERE 2007 EERE 2015 (Section 8.2.2.4 of the TSD)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Oil-Fired Boilers

A-5

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) EERE EERE 2015 (Section 5.4.1 of the TSD)

Navigant

AFUE (%) EERE / 

Navigant EERE 2007 EERE 2007 AHRI 

Database

ENERGY 

STAR v3.0 EERE 2007

Average Life (yrs) EERE EERE

Retail Equipment Cost 

($) EERE EERE 2015 (LCC Analysis Spreadsheet "Statistics" tab)

Total Installed Cost ($) EERE EERE 2015 (LCC Analysis Spreadsheet "Statistics" tab)

Annual Maintenance 

Cost ($) EERE EERE 2015 (Section 8.2.2.4 of the TSD)
Review Draft

A-6

Data Sources » Residential Electric Resistance Furnaces

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors

Navigant

Efficiency (%) DOE/ASHRAE

Average Life (yrs) Distributors

Retail Equipment Cost ($) RS Means 2017

Total Installed Cost ($) RS Means 2017

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

A-7

Data Sources » Residential Electric Resistance Heaters

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors

Navigant

Efficiency (%) Navigant

Average Life (yrs) Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 2017 RS Means

Total Installed Cost ($) 2017 RS Means

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Central Air Conditioners

A-8

South (Hot-Dry and Hot-Humid)

North (Rest of Country)

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) EERE EERE

Navigant

SEER

EERE / 

Navigant

EERE / 

Navigant eCFR EERE ENERGY 

STAR EERE

Average Life (yrs)

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) EERE EERE

Navigant

SEER

EERE / 

Navigant

EERE / 

Navigant eCFR EERE ENERGY 

STAR EERE

Average Life (yrs)

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Air Source Heat Pumps

A-9

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) EERE / AHRI EERE

Navigant

SEER (Cooling)

EERE / 

Navigant

EERE / 

Navigant eCFR EERE ENERGY STAR EERE

HSPF (Heating)

EERE

Average Life (yrs)

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Ground Source Heat Pumps

A-10

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) AHRI/Navigant EERE

Navigant

COP (Heating) Navigant AHRI 

Database 

ASHRAE 

90.1-2016

AHRI 

Database 

ENERGY 

STAR

AHRI 

Database 

EER (Cooling) Navigant AHRI 

Database 

AHRI 

Database 

ENERGY 

STAR

AHRI 

Database 

Average Life (yrs) Navigant / EERE

Navigant / EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Distributors/IGSHPA

/EERE 

2009/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($)

Distributors/IGSHPA

/EERE 

2009/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Room Air Conditioners

A-11

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr) Distributors AHAM 

Navigant

EER and CEER Navigant EERE CCMS ENERGY 

STAR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) Appliance Magazine, 2012

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) Navigant Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Portable Air Conditioners

A-12

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr) 

EERE Navigant

CEER

Average Life (yrs)

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps

A-13

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Manufacturer

Navigant

Heating (COP) Product Literature

Cooling (COP) Product Literature

Annual Electric Use (kWh/yr) Product Literature

Average Life (yrs) Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) PERC

Total Installed Cost ($) Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

A-14

Data Sources » Residential Cord Wood Stoves

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors / Product Literature

Navigant

Efficiency (Non-Catalytic) (HHV)

Navigant / 

Literature

EPA Default / 

Literature / 

Navigant

EPA Certified Wood Heater 

List August 2016

Efficiency (Catalytic) (HHV)

Average Life (yrs) Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) Product Lit. / 

Dealers Product Literature/Dealers

Total Installed Cost ($) Dealers

Dealers/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Dealers / 

Navigant
Review Draft

A-15

Data Sources » Residential Wood Pellet Stoves

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors / Product Literature

Navigant

Efficiency (HHV) Navigant/ 

Literature

EPA 

Default/Literat

ure/Navigant

EPA Default/EPA Certified 

Wood Heater List August 

2016/Navigant

Average Life (yrs) Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) Product Literature/ Dealers

Total Installed Cost ($)

Dealers Dealers/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

A-16

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI / 

Distributors Navigant EERE 2010/AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant EERE 2016 CCMS ENERGY 

STAR AHRI/CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors EERE 2010 Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Distributors / RS Means 

2010 EERE 2010

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 2010

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

A-17

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI / 

Distributors

Navigant

EERE 2010/AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant EERE 2016 AHRI/CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors

EERE 2010

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Distributors 

/ RS Means 

2007

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 2010

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

A-18

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI / 

Distributors AHRI EERE 2010/AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant EERE 2016 AHRI/CCMS AHRI

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors EERE 2010 EERE 2010 Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Distributors 

/ RS Means 

2010

EERE 2010

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) EERE 2010

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Heat Pump Storage Water Heaters

A-19

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI Navigant AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant Navigant CCMS ENERGY STAR AHRI/CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) RS Means 

2010 / ACEEE 

2007

EERE 2010 Distributors EERE 2010 Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) EERE 2010

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 2010

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Solar Water Heaters

A-20

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical / 

ENERGY STAR** Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.) SRCC / Navigant

Navigant

Overall Efficiency (Solar Fraction) DOE / SRCC / Navigant

Solar Energy Factor SRCC / Navigant

Average Life (yrs) DOE / Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost1 (2017$) RS Means Online 2017

Total Installed Cost1 (2017$) RS Means Online 2017

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Instantaneous Water Heaters

A-21

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr) EERE AHRI EERE 2010/AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant Navigant EERE 2016 CCMS ENERGY 

STAR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 

Distributors 

/ RS Means 

2010

Total Installed Cost (2017$) DEER 2008 EERE 2010

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) Navigant

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Refrigerator-Freezers and Freezers

A-22

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

) EERE 2011 / Navigant

Navigant

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr) Navigant EERE 2011 Navigant ENERGY STAR Navigant

Average Life (yrs)

EERE 2011 / Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Natural Gas Cooktops

A-23

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors / Product Literature

Navigant

Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kBtu/yr) EERE Navigant EERE 

Cooking Efficiency (%) Navigant

Average Life (yrs)

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) Navigant / EERE 
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Clothes Dryers (Electric)

A-24

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3) Navigant / CCMS

Navigant

CEF (lb/kWh) EERE / Navigant EERE CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE / Navigant 

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Clothes Dryers (Gas)

A-25

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 

EERE / Navigant

CCMS

Navigant

CEF (lb/kWh) EERE CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE / Navigant

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

)

Navigant

Navigant CCMS

CCMS

CCMS

CCMS

Navigant

Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (ft3

/kWh/cycle) AHAM / 

Navigant EERE

ENERGY 

STAR

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3

)

ENERGY 

STAR

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Water Consumption 

(gal/cycle) Navigant / EERE

Hot Water Energy (kWh/cycle)

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) Navigant 

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle)

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) EERE / Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Navigant / RS Means 2016

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE

Data Sources » Residential Clothes Washers

A-26

Front-Loading

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Clothes Washers

A-27

Top-Loading

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

)

Navigant

Navigant CCMS

CCMS

CCMS

CCMS

Navigant

Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (ft3

/kWh/cycle) AHAM / 

Navigant EERE ENERGY STAR

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3

)

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Water Consumption (gal/cycle) Navigant / EERE

Hot Water Energy (kWh/cycle)

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) Navigant 

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle)

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) EERE / Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Navigant / RS Means 2016

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Dishwashers

A-28

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)

AHAM 2014 / EERE 

2012

CFR

Navigant / 

CCMS / 

ENERGY 

STAR

ENERGY 

STAR EERE 2016 

Navigant

Water Consumption 

(gal/cycle)

Water Heating Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) EERE 2016

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2016 / Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE 2012 EERE 2016

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) Navigant

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces

A-29

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) AHRI EERE

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%) AHRI 10 CFR 

431.77 DOE CCMS

Average Life (yrs)

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces

A-30

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical 

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 

AHRI

DOE CCMS

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%) 10 CFR 431.77 DOE CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($) EERE EERE / Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters

A-31

DATA 

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Small Large Small Large Small / Large

Typical Capacity (kBTU/h) Distributors/Navigant

Navigant

Efficiency (%) Navigant

Average Life (yrs) Technology Cost and Performance File for Commercial Model 

for AEO2010

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 

RS Means 2017

Total Installed Cost ($) 

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Boilers

A-32

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kW) BSRIA

Navigant

Efficiency (%) EERE / Navigant

Average Life (yrs)

ASHRAE 2007 

HVAC 

Applications

ASHRAE 2015 

HVAC 

Applications

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

RS Means 

2013/Navigant Total Installed Cost ($) RS Means 2017

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers

A-33

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard* Typical MidRange High Typical High Typical/High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Navigant EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%)

ASHRAE 

Standard 

90.1-2004 

/ Navigant

EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant

Average Life (yrs) EERE EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) RS Means 

2011 EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($) RS Means 

2011 EERE Issued Final Rule Issued Final Rule

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($) Navigant EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers

A-34

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Navigant

Issued Final Rule

(Energy Conservation Program: Energy 

Conservation Standards for Commercial

Packaged Boilers)

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%)

ASHRAE 

Standard 90.1-

2004

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

RS Means 

2011 / 

Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($) EERE
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Centrifugal Chillers

A-35

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 90.1 Typical High Typical / High

Typical 

Capacity 

(tons)

IPCC/ARB/TEAP/Navigant

Navigant

Efficiency 

(kW/ton)

ASHRAE 

90.1-

2010/FEMP/

eSource/Pro

duct 

Literature

ASHRAE 

90.1-2016 

(>400 TR)

Product Lit

Progress 

Energy Data 

Sheet

COP

Average Life 

(yrs)

2007 

ASHRAE 

Applications 

Handbook

2015 ASHRAE Applications Handbook A37 

Table 4

Retail 

Equipment 

Cost ($/ton) RS 

Means/Distri

butors/Navig

ant

RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed 

Cost ($/ton)

Annual 

Maintenance 

Cost ($/ton)

Navigant/Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Reciprocating Chillers

A-36

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 90.1 Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (tons) BSRIA/DEER

Navigant

Efficiency (kW/ton) ASHRAE 90.1-

2010/DEER/ 

FEMP/Product 

Literature

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 (>150 TR)

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 (>150 TR) Product Lit

COP

Average Life (yrs) Manufacturers 2015 ASHRAE Applications Handbook A37 Table 4

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton)

RS Means/

Distributors/

Navigant

RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton) Navigant/Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Screw Chillers

A-37

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 90.1 Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (tons) Navigant

Navigant

Efficiency (kW/ton)

Navigant ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 (>150 TR)

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 (>150 TR) Product Lit

COP

Average Life (yrs) Manufacturers FacilitiesNet 

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton)

RS Means 

2013/Distributor

s/Navigant

RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton) Navigant/Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Scroll Chillers

A-38

SOURCE

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 90.1 Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (tons) Navigant/Manufacturers

Navigant

Efficiency [full-load/IPLV] 

(kW/ton)

Navigant ASHRAE 90.1-2016 

(>150TR)

Product 

Lit/Navigant Product Lit

COP [full-load/IPLV]

Average Life (yrs) Manufacturers

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton)

Manufacturers/RS 

Means 

2013/Navigant

RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton) Navigant /Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Chillers

A-39

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base: 

Absorption

Installed Base: 

Engine-Driven

ASHRAE 90.1 

absorption

CA Title 24 -

engine Absorption Engine-Driven Absorption / Engine-Driven

Typical Capacity (tons) BSRIA/Distributors

Navigant

COP [full-load]

Product Literature/Navigant

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 directfired double 

effect

CA Title 24 gas 

Engine 

standard

Product Lit

COP [IPLV]

Average Life (yrs) 2007 ASHRAE Applications 

Handbook/Distributors 2015 ASHRAE Applications Handbook A37 Table 4

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

Manufacturer/Distributors/RS 

Means 2013/GIT/Navigant RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost 

($/ton)

Annual Maintenance 

Cost ($/ton) Navigant/Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners

A-40

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Output Capacity 

(kBtu/h) AHRI / Navigant EERE

Navigant

Efficiency (EER) Distributors / 

Navigant eCFR

EERE ENERGY STAR EERE

Part Load Efficiency (IEER) EERE N/A

Average Life (yrs) EERE 

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Distributors / 

Navigant / DEER, 

2008

EERE

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) EERE
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Driven Rooftop Air Conditioners/Heat Pumps

A-41

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (tons)

Product Literature/Navigant

Navigant

Heating COP

Cooling COP

Average Life (yrs) Manufacturer/RS Means 2017/Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton) Abuheiba 2017/Manufacturer/RS Means 

2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

Manufacturer/RS Means 2017/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps

A-42

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) EERE

Navigant

Efficiency (EER)

ASHRAE 

Standard 

90.1-2004 / 

Navigant

eCFR EERE / 

Navigant

ENERGY 

STAR

EERE / 

Navigant

Part Load Efficiency EERE N/A

EERE EERE

COP (Heating) EERE / 

Navigant eCFR

Average Life (yrs)

Distributors / 

RS Means 

2010 / DEER 

/ Navigant

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Ground Source Heat Pumps

A-43

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical Mid High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) US DOE/EIA EERE

Navigant

COP (Heating)

Navigant ASHRAE 

90.1-2016 AHRI Database

EER (Cooling)

Average Life (yrs) Navigant / EERE

Navigant / EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($) Distributors/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($) US DOD/IGSHPA/MA 

DOER/CEFIA/ASHRAE

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)

Geothermal Heat Pump 

Consortium, Inc. (US 

DOE Contract DE-FG07-

95ID13347)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

A-44

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Storage Capacity 

(gal)

Arthur D. 

Little / 

Distributors 

/ AHRI CCMS

Navigant

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) AHRI

Thermal Efficiency (%)

EERE / 

ASHRAE 

Standard 

90.1-2004 / 

Navigant

CFR CCMS ENERGY 

STAR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2001

EERE 2016 Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) Distributors 

/ CEC / 

Navigant Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE/Distributors
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

A-45

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current Standard Typical Typical 

Typical Storage Capacity (gal) Navigant / Product 

Literature 

EERE 2016

Navigant

Typical Input Capacity (kW) Product Literature 

Thermal Efficiency (%) Navigant

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2016

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$) EERE 2016 /Navigant EERE 2016

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Heat Pump Storage Water Heaters

A-46

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Storage Capacity (gal)

Distributors/Navigant

Navigant

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 

Coefficient of Performance (COP) Distributors

Average Life (yrs) EERE/Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)

RS Means Online2017

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) Navigant

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

A-47

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Storage Capacity 

(gal)

AHRI / Navigant CCMS/Navigant

Navigant

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 

Thermal Efficiency (%) Navigant CFR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2001

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Distributors / Navigant 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Booster Water Heaters

A-48

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (gal)

Product 

Literature / 

Navigant

Product 

Literature

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%)

Product Literature

Average Life (yrs)

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Distributors/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Booster Water Heaters

A-49

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) Distributors/Navigant

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%)

Product 

Literature/ 

Navigant

CFR Product Literature/ Navigant

Average Life (yrs) Product Literature/Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Distributors/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

A-50

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENEGRY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity 

(kBtu/h) CCMS

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%) Navigant CCMS ENERGY 

STAR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2016

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE 2016 

/Navigant EERE 2016 Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2017$)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Solar Water Heaters

A-51

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical / ENERGY STAR Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.) SRCC / Navigant

Navigant

Overall Efficiency (Solar Fraction) DOE / SRCC / Navigant

Solar Energy Factor SRCC / Navigant

Average Life (yrs) DOE / Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) RS Means Online 2017

Total Installed Cost (2017$) RS Means Online 2017

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

A-52

Data Sources » Commercial Natural Gas Ranges, Griddles, and Ovens

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High

Total Input Capacity (kBtu) Distributors

Navigant

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency 

(%)

Navigant FSTC

ENERGY STAR

FSTC

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%)

N/A Range Burner - Cooking Energy 

Efficiency (%)

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(Btu/h/ft2) ENERGY STAR

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) FEMP

Range - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) FSTC - FSTC

Average Life (yrs) FSTC

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)** Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) FSTC / Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)* FSTC

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

A-53

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Ranges, Griddles, and Ovens

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High

Total Input Capacity (kW) Distributors

Navigant

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) Navigant FSTC ENERGY STAR FSTC

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) Navigant FSTC - FSTC

Range Top - Cooking Energy Efficiency 

(%) Navigant FSTC - FSTC

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(W/ft2

) Navigant FSTC ENERGY STAR FSTC

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (kW) Navigant FSTC ENERGY STAR FSTC

Range Top - Idle Energy Rate (kW) N/A

Average Life (yrs) FSTC

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) FSTC / Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)* FSTC

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

A-54

Data Sources » Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High

Interior Volume (ft3

) FEMP

Navigant

Maximum Idle Energy Rate (W) CEE / 

Navigant FEMP

Average Life (yrs) FEMP

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors / ENERGY STAR Savings Calculator / Navigant

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) FSTC

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

197

Appendix B

References

Navigant Consulting, Inc.

1200 19 St. NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

(202) 973-2400

www.navigantconsulting.com

B-1

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

B-2

• Abuheibaa, et. al. (2017). Challenges and opportunities of Gas Engine Heat Pumps – Two Case 

Studies. Retrieved September 2017 from: http://hpc2017.org/wpcontent/uploads/2017/05/P.4.7.4-Challenges-and-Opportunities-of-Gas-Engine-DrivenHeat-Pumps-Two-Case-Studies.pdf

• ACEEE. (2007). Top Rated Energy-Efficient Appliances. American Council for an EnergyEfficient Economy.

• AHAM. (n.d.). Directory of Certified Products. Retrieved September 2010 from: 

http://www.ahamdir.com/dirsvc/aham.nsf/fraRAC?OpenFrameset&pgm=Room%20Air%2

0Conditioners

• AHAM. (2014). Trends in Energy Efficiency.

• AHRI. (n.d.). Directory of Certified Product Performance. Retrieved September 2010, June 

2013, and September/November 2017 from: 

http://www.ahridirectory.org/ahridirectory/pages/home.aspx

• Alabama Power (n.d.). Chillers: Compare Maintenance Costs. Retrieved September 2017 

from: http://www.alabamapower.com/business/ways-to-save/chillers-space-coolingoptions/compare-maintenance-costs.html

References
Review Draft

B-3

• Appliance Design Magazine. (n.d.) BNP Media.

— Page 7. March 2013 Issue.

— Page 5. March 2014 Issue.

— Page 6. March 2015 Issue.

— Page 5. March 2017 Issue. 

• Appliance Magazine. (2012). “The U.S. Appliance Industry: Market Value, Life Expectancy 

& Replacement Picture 2012.” UBM Canon.

• Appliance Magazine. (n.d.).

— “U.S. Appliance Industry Statistical Review: 2000 to YTD 2010.” Canon Data Products 

Group. July 2010.

— “U.S. Appliance Shipment Statistics Monthly: January 2011.” Canon Data Products 

Group. January 2011.

— “2011 Full-Year Appliance Industry Shipment Statistics.” UBM Canon. March 2012.

— “2012 Full-Year Appliance Industry Shipment Statistics and Year-In-Review.” UBM 

Canon. March 2013.

• ASHRAE. (2004). ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2004. ASHRAE, Inc.

• ASHRAE. (2007). ANSI/ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-2007. ASHRAE, Inc.

• ASHRAE. (2015). 2015 ASHRAE Handbook – HVAC Applications. ASHRAE Inc.

References
Review Draft

B-4

• Building Services Research and Information Association & Ducker Research Company. (1997, 

1998). U.S. Market for Central Plant Air Conditioning; Market for Ducted Warm Air Central 

Heating; U.S. Market for Hydronic Heating and Burners; U.S. Water Heating Market; U.S. Unitary 

and Close Control Air Conditioning.

• California Air Resources Board (CARB). (2009). Inventory of Direct and Indirect GHG Emissions 

from Stationary Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Sources, with Special Emphasis on Retail Food 

Refrigeration and Unitary Air Conditioning

• CCMS. (n.d.). U.S. DOE Compliance Certification Database. Retrieved June 2013, September and 

November 2017 from: http://www.regulations.doe.gov/certification-data/

• CEC. (n.d.). California Energy Commission Appliance Efficiency Database. Retrieved 2004, 

September 2010, and June 2013 from: 

http://www.appliances.energy.ca.gov/AdvancedSearch.aspx

• CEE. (2009). “Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets Program Guide.” Consortium for 

Energy Efficiency. April 2009.

• CFR. (n.d.). National energy conservation standards authorized under the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA) and codified in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR).

• DEER. (2008, June). Database for Energy Efficiency Resources. Retrieved June 2013, from 

California Energy Commission: www.energy.ca.gov/deer

• DOE. (2012, June). Energy Saver: Geothermal Heat Pumps. Retrieved June 2013, from 

ENERGY.GOV: http://energy.gov/energysaver/articles/geothermal-heat-pumps

References
Review Draft

B-5

• DOE. (n.d.). Estimating the Cost and Energy Efficiency of a Solar Water Heater. Retrieved 

December 2017 from https://energy.gov/energysaver/estimating-cost-and-energy-efficiencysolar-water-heater

• DOE. (n.d.). Solar Water Heaters. Retrieved December 2017 from 

https://energy.gov/energysaver/solar-water-heaters 

• Distributors. (n.d.). Navigant online research and discussions with distributors (e.g., 

Grainger, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Sears, and others).

• EERE. (2001). Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Central Air Conditioners and 

Heat Pumps Energy Conservation Standards; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2001). Energy Efficiency Program for Commercial and Industrial Equipment; Efficiency 

Standards for Commercial Heating, Air Conditioning and Water Heating Equipment; Final rule.

• EERE. (2004). Joint Stakeholders Comments on Standards for Commercial Package Air Conditioners 

and Heat Pumps.

• EERE. (2006). Appliance Standards Framework, Rulemaking Framework for Residential Water 

Heaters, Direct Heating Equipment and Pool Heaters.

• EERE. (2006). Buildings Energy Data Book.

• EERE. (2007). Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Energy Conservation 

Standards for Residential Furnaces and Boilers; Final Rule.

References
Review Draft

B-6

• EERE. (2009). Commercial Heating, Air Conditioning and Water Heating Equipment (i.e. ASHRAE 

Equipment).

• EERE. (2009). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Certain Consumer 

Products (Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Microwave Ovens, and Electric and Gas Kitchen Ranges and 

Ovens) and for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment (Commercial Clothes Washers); Final 

Rule.

• EERE. (2009). Ground-Source Heat Pumps: Overview of Market Status, Barriers to Adoption, and 

Options for Overcoming Barriers.

• EERE. (2009). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Certain Consumer 

Products and for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2009). Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy 

Conservation Standards and Test Procedures for Commercial Heating, Air-Conditioning, and WaterHeating Equipment; Proposed Rule.

• EERE. (2010). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Residential Central Air 

Conditioners and Heat Pumps.

• EERE. (2010). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water 

Heaters, Direct Heating Equipment, and Pool Heaters; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2011). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential 

Clothes Dryers and Room Air Conditioners; Direct Final Rule.

References
Review Draft

B-7

• EERE. (2011). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential 

Furnaces and Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps; Direct Final Rule.

• EERE. (2011). Energy Conservation Program: Standards for Residential Refrigerators, RefrigeratorFreezers, and Freezers; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2011). Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Commercial And 

Industrial Equipment: Efficiency Standards for Commercial Heating, Air-Conditioning, and WaterHeating Equipment.

• EERE. (2012). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential 

Clothes Washers; Direct Final Rule.

• EERE. (2012). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential 

Dishwashers; Direct Final Rule.

• EERE. (2015). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer 

Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment. 

• EERE. (2015). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Small, Large, 

and Very Large Commercial Package Air Conditioners.

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy 

Conservation Standards for Small, Large, and Very Large Air-Cooled Commercial Package Air 

Conditioning and Heating Equipment and Commercial Warm Air Furnaces; Direct final rule and 

Technical Support Document.

References
Review Draft

B-8

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Portable Air 

Conditioners.

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Boilers

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program: Test Procedures for Portable Air Conditioners; Final 

Rule.

• EERE. (2016). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer 

Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Packaged Boilers

• EERE. (2016). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer 

Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Portable Air Conditioners.

• EERE. (2016). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Residential 

Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps.

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products and Certain Commercial and 

Industrial Equipment: Test Procedures for Consumer and Commercial Water Heaters; Final rule

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products; 

Supplemental Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy 

Conservation Standards for Commercial Water Heating Equipment: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.

References
Review Draft

• EERE. (2016). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for 

Consumer Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Residential Dishwashers.

• ENERGY STAR Savings Calculator (n.d.). “Savings Calculator for ENERGY STAR 

Qualified Commercial Kitchen Equipment.” U.S. EPA and DOE. Retrieved June 2013 

from http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=bulk_purchasing.bus_purchasing

• ENERGY STAR. (n.d.). Retrieved June 2013 and September 2017, from ENERGY STAR 

Products: http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=products.pr_find_es_products

• EPA. (2017, August) USEPA Certified Wood Heater List August 2017. 

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-08/usepa-certified-wood-heaterlist.xlsx

• FacilitiesNet. (2009). Properly Diagnosing Chiller Life Cycles. Retrieved September 2017 

from: http://www.facilitiesnet.com/hvac/article/Properly-Diagnosing-Chiller-LifeCycles--10645

• FEMP. (2012). “Federal Energy Management Program: Covered Product Category: Hot 

Food Holding Cabinets.” Retrieved June 2013 from: 

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/technologies/printable_versions/eep_hot_food.html

B-9

References
Review Draft

B-10

• FEMP. (2016, August). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Air-Cooled Chillers. Retrieved September 

2017, from FEMP Technologies: 

https://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/technologies/eep_ac_chillers.html

• FEMP. (2016, August). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Water-Cooled Electric Chillers. Retrieved 

September 2017, from FEMP Technologies: https://energy.gov/eere/femp/purchasing-energyefficient-water-cooled-electric-chillers

• FEMP. (2016, August). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Hot Food Holding Cabinets. Retrieved 

December 2017, from FEMP Technologies: https://energy.gov/eere/femp/purchasing-energyefficient-hot-food-holding-cabinets

• FSTC. (2002). Food Service Technology Center. Commercial Cooking Appliance Technology 

Assessment. Fisher Nickel, Inc.

• FSTC. (2013). Personal communication with Yung Lin of the Food Service Technology 

Center. June 21, 2013.

• FSTC. (n.d.). Appliance Reports, Rangetop Performance Reports. Retrieved December 2017, from: 

https://fishnick.com/publications/appliancereports/rangetops/

• FSTC. (n.d.). Appliance Reports, Griddle Performance Reports. Retrieved December 2017, from: 

https://fishnick.com/publications/appliancereports/griddles/

• GeoExchange. GeoExchange Heating and Cooling Systems: Fascinating Facts.

• GHPC. (n.d.). Geothermal Heat Pump Consortium. Retrieved 2007 from www.geoexchange.org

References
Review Draft

• IGSPHA. (n.d.). International Ground Source Heat Pump Association. Retrieved 2007 from 

www.igshpa.okstate.edu

• International Ground Source Heat Pump Association (IGSHPA) Conference 

Proceedings. (2012, October). Measuring the Costs & Benefits of Nationwide Geothermal 

Heat Pump (GHP) Deployment – A Progress Report. Retrieved June 2013, from IGSHPA: 

http://www.igshpa.okstate.edu/membership/members_only/proceedings/2012/10-3-

2012-0130-Session-C-Measuring-the-Costs-&-Benefits-of-Nationwide-Geothermal-HeatPump-(GHP)-Deployment-A-Progress-Report.pdf

• LBNL. (2003). Commercial Unitary Air Conditioning and Heat Pumps - Life Cycle Cost 

Analysis: Inputs and Results. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

• Manufacturers. (n.d.). Navigant discussions with product manufacturers.

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