U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Buildings Working Group Meeting

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

May 23, 2019 | Washington, DC

By

Buildings Energy Analysis Team

AEO2019 debrief and AEO2020 updates
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Overview

• AEO2019 debrief

• AEO2020

– Major model updates

– Policy assumptions

– Historical updates

• Medium-term projects

• Long-term projects

• Discussion

AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019 2
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2019 debrief

3 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2019 debrief

• AEO2019 includes updated major end-use technology menus

– Residential and commercial space heating and cooling, water heating, residential appliances, 

and commercial cooking

– Updated report data posted to the web: www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts

• AEO2019 also incorporates the 2015 Residential Energy Consumption 

Survey (RECS)

– Consumption and revised characteristic microdata posted to the web: 

www.eia.gov/consumption/residential

AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019 4
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

quadrillion British thermal units

AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019

AEO2019 Reference case residential sector energy consumption

AEO2019 Reference case

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2018

history projections

electricity natural gas petroleum and other liquids other
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

quadrillion British thermal units

AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019

AEO2019 Reference case commercial sector energy consumption

AEO2019 Reference case

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2018

history projections

electricity natural gas petroleum and other liquids other
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

direct-current gigawatts

AEO2019 Reference case buildings solar photovoltaic capacity

AEO2019 Reference case

7 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2018

history projections

residential

commercial
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2020 (and beyond)

8 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2020 major model updates

• Update distributed generation and combined heat and power (CHP) cost and 

characteristic inputs

– Updated report data will be posted to the web here: 

www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/distrigen

– Report will include discussion of residential and commercial battery storage

• Incorporate data from Stanford University’s DeepSolar program into residential 

solar photovoltaic (PV) econometric hurdle model

– Uses satellite imagery to identify existing solar PV installed in the Lower 48 states in 2018

– web.stanford.edu/group/deepsolar/home.html

• Continue to incorporate data from the 2015 RECS

– Wood consumption data published after modeling for AEO2019 was completed

– Residential sub-census division niches for fuel cells and small wind

AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019 9
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2020 major model updates (continued)

• Update representation of commercial distributed generation

– Refresh methodology to calibrate distributed generation model builds to recent historical data

– Use statistical methods to estimate the shape, speed, and maximum levels of distributed 

generation diffusion

– Ensure that assumptions such as diffusion start year, PV-suitable roof area, and treatment of 

existing and new buildings reflect the most recent available information

• Update for commercial minor fuel projections

– Includes propane, motor gasoline, residual fuel oil, kerosene and coal

– Current econometric method is based on historical consumption and energy prices

AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019 10
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2020 policy assumptions

• Identify any new ENERGY STAR specifications as they affect major end-use 

equipment and miscellaneous electric loads (MELs)

– Also working with other DOE offices and national labs to develop consistent terminology and 

characterization of MELs

• Incorporate new federal rulemakings if finalized

– A notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) issued in February 2019 proposes to roll back the 

2017 expansion of General Service Lamp (GSL) and General Service Incandescent Lamp 

(GSIL) definitions

– Proposed standards pending for appliances

• Review representation of state energy efficiency programs and policies

11 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2020 historical updates

• Update sectoral energy consumption by fuel

– Monthly Energy Review (MER)

– Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

• Include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) updated 

weather data and forecast

• Calibrate new residential heating equipment shares based on the U.S. Census 

Bureau’s Survey of Construction

• Continue to refine historical (and projected) impacts of utility energy efficiency 

incentives

– Working with Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships (NEEP) to improve data collection for and 

understanding of utility energy efficiency programs, particularly for Middle Atlantic and South 

Atlantic Census Divisions

AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019 12
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Medium-term projects

• Investigating impacts of low income energy efficiency and weatherization 

projects

• Characterizing whole-building sensor and control technologies

13 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Long-term projects

• Research alternate distributed generation electricity rate policies (i.e., retail 

versus wholesale rate for sales back to the grid)

• Investigate modeling of battery storage technologies for buildings

14 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Some reminders

• Interactive graphs are available as part of our online data table browser

– www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser

• AEO and other select EIA data are available as part of our Application 

Programming Interface (API) tools

– www.eia.gov/opendata

AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019 15
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Questions or comments?

16 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

For more buildings information

Kevin Jarzomski | phone: 202-586-3208

| email: kevin.jarzomski@eia.gov

Meera Fickling | phone: 202-586-0765

| email: meera.fickling@eia.gov

Behjat Hojjati | phone: 202-586-1068

| email: behjat.hojjati@eia.gov

Erin Boedecker | phone: 202-586-4791

Team Lead | email: erin.boedecker@eia.gov

17 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration homepage | www.eia.gov

Buildings Working Group materials | www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/workinggroup/buildings

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

State Energy Data System | www.eia.gov/state/seds

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Residential Energy Consumption Survey | www.eia.gov/consumption/residential

Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey | www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial

International Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/international

AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019 18
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Bonus Slides

19 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Buildings-related reports

• Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency: 

www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts

• Analysis and Representation of Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) in 

NEMS: www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/demand/miscelectric

• Distributed Generation System Characteristics and Costs in the Buildings 

Sector: www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/distrigen

• Modeling Distributed Generation in the Buildings Sectors: 

www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/nems/2017/buildings

• Price Elasticities for Energy Use in Buildings of the United States: 

www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/energyuse

AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 23, 2019 20