U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2015: 

LFMM preliminary results

AEO2015 Liquid Fuels Market Module Results

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas & Biofuels Analysis

September 24, 2014 | Washington, DC

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Discussion topics

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 2

• AEO2015 vs AEO2014 changes in LFMM

• Key preliminary results
AEO2015 vs AEO2014 changes in LFMM

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 3

• Crude

– Light sweet crude (35+ API) broken into 3 API gravity ranges

• 35<=API<40

• 40<=API<50

• API>=50

– Updated historical crude exports to Canada to current levels

– Allowed material >= 50 API to be exported

– Revised methodology for determining by-grade crude price response

• Products

– Modified elasticities representing international product import and export curves (IEM) 

– Represented Tier-3 motor gasoline regulation

• Logistics

– Updated pipeline and rail capacities and tariffs

– Updated crude import/export price differentials

• No change in RFS targets over projection period
Brent spot price

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 4
Brent-WTI spread

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 5
Motor gasoline price

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 6
Diesel fuel price

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 7
Domestic crude oil production

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 8
Domestic NGPL production

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 9
Net imports of crude oil

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 10
Crude oil exports (mainly to Canada)

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 11
Product exports

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 12
Net import share of product supplied

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 13
Refinery utilization

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 14
Contacts

15

John Powell: john.powell@eia.gov

Mindi Farber-DeAnda: mindi.farber-deanda@eia.gov

Beth May: elizabeth.may@eia.gov

Michael Cole: michael.cole@eia.gov

Adrian Geagla: adrian.geagla@eia.gov

Next Working Group Meeting

Tentatively planned for July 2015.

Will present assumptions for AEO2016.

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
For more information

16 Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, September 24, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

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