U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Autonomous Vehicles: Uncertainties and Energy 

Implications

For

2018 EIA Energy Conference

June 5, 2018 | Washington, DC

By

Nicholas Chase, Lead Economist
Overview

• Background

– Definitions

– Potential benefits

– Potential obstacles

– Potential energy effects

• Autonomous vehicle scenarios in AEO2018

– Scenario descriptions

– Results

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June 5, 2018 2
Background

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June 5, 2018 3
Definition of vehicle automation

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June 5, 2018

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Automated Driving Systems 2.0, A Vision for Safety

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• Operational and safety-critical control functions occur without driver input

• Connected and automated vehicles
Potential benefits 

• Road safety

• Increased system efficiency 

– Route harmonization

– Reduced congestion

• Increased mobility for underserved population

• Less time driving

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Potential obstacles 

• Consumer acceptance

• Technology cost and function

• Cybersecurity 

• Legal framework

• Infrastructure

• Policy

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

delivered energy consumption transportation

2017 U.S. delivered energy consumption

quadrillion Btu

Nicholas Chase, Washington, DC, 

June 5, 2018

On-road vehicles accounted for 31% of delivered U.S. energy consumption in 

2017, making potential energy effects from autonomous vehicles important

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case

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transportation

industrial

buildings

light-duty vehicles

heavy-duty vehicles

On-road vehicles

Other modes
-75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200%

Changes in light-duty vehicle miles traveled

% range

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June 5, 2018

Range of potential autonomous vehicle effects on light-duty vehicle travel 

demand

Sources: Help or Hindrance? The Travel, Energy, and Carbon Impacts of Highly Automated Vehicles (Wadud et al); Estimated Bounds and 

Important Factors for Fuel Use and Consumer Costs of Connected and Automated Vehicles (Stephens et al)

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less energy more energy

ease of travel

lower perceived cost of driving

underserved population

empty miles

mode switching

ridesharing

less hunting for parking

Mobility as a Service
-75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200%

Changes in light-duty energy efficiency

% range

Nicholas Chase, Washington, DC, 

June 5, 2018

Range of potential autonomous vehicle effects on light-duty vehicle energy 

efficiency

Sources: Help or Hindrance? The Travel, Energy, and Carbon Impacts of Highly Automated Vehicles (Wadud et al); Estimated Bounds and 

Important Factors for Fuel Use and Consumer Costs of Connected and Automated Vehicles (Stephens et al)

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eco-driving

intersection-vehicle interaction

de-emphasized performance

faster travel

traffic flow + drive profile

increased feature content

collision avoidance

congestion mitigation

platooning

vehicle resizing

less energy more energy
0

10

20

30

40

50

high energy efficiency with less

vehicle miles traveled

light-duty vehicles (2017) low energy efficiency with more

vehicle miles traveled

2017 U.S. delivered energy consumption

quadrillion Btu

Nicholas Chase, Washington, DC, 

June 5, 2018

Range of potential effects of autonomous vehicles on light-duty vehicle 

energy consumption

Source: 2017: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case, extrapolation based on upper and lower limits from Estimated Bounds and Important Factors for 

Fuel Use and Consumer Costs of Connected and Automated Vehicles (Stephens et al)

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+200%

-60%

15.3 quadrillion Btu

(8.3 million b/d oil equivalent)

45.9 quadrillion Btu

(24.9 million b/d oil equivalent)

6.1 quadrillion Btu

(3.3 million b/d oil equivalent)
Additional ways vehicle automation technology could affect 

transportation energy consumption 

• Alternative fuels and energy efficient powertrains

• Commercial trucks

• Mass transit 

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June 5, 2018 11
Autonomous vehicle scenarios 

in AEO2018

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Description of scenarios 

• Reference case

– Autonomous vehicles enter fleet light-duty vehicles

• 1% of new sales by 2050

– Autonomous vehicles used more intensively

• 65,000 miles/year and scrapped more quickly

– Autonomous vehicle fuel type

• 100% conventional gasoline internal combustion engine

– Autonomous vehicles affect mass transit

• Increases use of commuter rail

• Decreases use of transit bus and transit rail

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Description of scenarios–two scenarios examine energy implications 

from more widespread use of autonomous vehicles

• Identical assumptions

– Autonomous vehicles enter household and fleet light-duty vehicles

• 31% of new sales by 2050

– Autonomous vehicles used more intensively

• 65,000 miles/year (fleet) ; +10% miles/year (household) on average

– Autonomous vehicles affect mass transit modes

• Increases use of commuter rail

• Decreases use of transit rail

• Decreases use of transit bus until mid-2030s, thereafter, increases transit bus use from 

automation technology 

– Automation technology included on long-haul fleet commercial trucks enables platooning

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Description of scenarios–two scenarios examine energy implications 

from more widespread use of autonomous vehicles

• Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case

– Increasing share of autonomous vehicles are battery electric through 2050

• 96% of fleet and 82% of household autonomous vehicles by 2050

• Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case

– Increasing share of autonomous vehicles are hybrid electric through 2050

• 96% of fleet and 71% of household autonomous vehicles by 2050

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22

24

26

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

U.S. transportation energy consumption

quadrillion Btu

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June 5, 2018

Transportation energy consumption higher in both cases compared to 

Reference case but still lower than 2017

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case, Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case, Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case

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≈

0

history 2017 projection

Reference case

Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case

Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

Conventional gasoline Battery electric Hybrid electric Other

U.S. light-duty vehicle sales

million

Light-duty vehicle sales by fuel type across scenarios

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case, Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case, Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case

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Nicholas Chase, Washington, DC, 

June 5, 2018

Reference case

Autonomous Hybrid 

Electric Vehicle case

Autonomous Battery 

Electric Vehicle case
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Transportation energy consumption by fuel

quadrillion Btu

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June 5, 2018

Transportation fuel consumption differs between cases because of 

changes in light-duty vehicle fuel type

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case, Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case, Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case

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motor gasoline

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

diesel

Reference case

Autonomous Hybrid 

Electric Vehicle case

Autonomous Battery 

Electric Vehicle case

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

electricity
2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

U.S. light-duty vehicle miles traveled

billion

Nicholas Chase, Washington, DC, 

June 5, 2018

Light-duty vehicle miles traveled 14% above Reference case in 2050 

and 35% higher in 2050 than in 2017 

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case, Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case, Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case

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≈

0

history 2017 projection

Reference case

Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case

Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case
20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

New light-duty vehicle compliance fuel economy

miles per gallon

Nicholas Chase, Washington, DC, 

June 5, 2018

New light-duty vehicle fuel economy increases from growing use of 

fuel efficient autonomous battery and hybrid electric vehicles

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case, Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case, Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case

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≈

0

history 2017 projection

Reference case

Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case

Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case
10

12

14

16

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

U.S. light-duty vehicle energy consumption

quadrillion Btu

Nicholas Chase, Washington, DC, 

June 5, 2018

Light-duty vehicle energy consumption 7% to 10% above Reference 

case in 2050 but are 23% to 29% lower in 2050 than in 2017

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case, Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case, Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case

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≈

0

history 2017 projection

Reference case

Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case

Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case
0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Select mass transit energy consumption

quadrillion Btu

Nicholas Chase, Washington, DC, 

June 5, 2018

Assumptions about automation technology affects energy consumption 

of mass transit modes 

Note: Consumption in side cases are nearly identical so they are not visible in graphics

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case, Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case, Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case

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commuter rail

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

transit rail

Reference case

Autonomous Hybrid 

Electric Vehicle case

Autonomous Battery 

Electric Vehicle case

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

transit bus
Thank you

Nicholas Chase | phone: 202-586-1879 

| email: nicholas.chase@eia.gov

Autonomous Vehicles: Uncertainties and Energy Implications | 

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/section_issues.php#av

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo

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June 5, 2018 23