U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2023 Working Group

Preliminary results for oil, natural gas, and liquid fuels

for

Oil and Gas Supply, Natural Gas Markets, & Liquid Fuels Markets Working Group

September 29, 2022 | Washington, DC

By

Petroleum & Natural Gas Modeling Team 

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling
Oil and Natural Gas Supply

2 Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes 

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change
AEO2023 Oil and Gas Supply Module Updates

3

• Data updates

– Tight/shale estimated ultimate recovery per well (EUR)

– Lower 48 offshore and Alaska announced discoveries

– Historical production through 2021

– Drilling responsiveness

• Inflation Reduction Act updates

– Sec. 50261 Oil and Gas Royalty Rate (AEO2023)

– Sec. 50264 2017 – 2022 OCS Leasing Program (AEO2023)

– Sec. 50263 Royalties on all Extracted Methane (AEO2024)

– Sec. 60113 Methane Emissions Reduction Program (AEO2024)

– Sec. 50262 Mineral Leasing Act Modernization (not applicable)

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change
$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 20, 2022

West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) oil prices are higher than in last year’s AEO

WTI crude oil price

2021 dollars per barrel

4

history projections

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change

2022
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 20, 2022

U.S. crude oil production is slightly higher than in last year’s AEO with higher oil 

prices

U.S. crude oil production

million barrels per day

5

history projections

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change

2022
Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, September 20, 2022

Tight oil leads growth in U.S. crude oil production in AEO2023 

U.S. crude oil production by type

million barrels per day

6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Lower 48 states offshore

tight oil

Lower 48 states other

Alaska

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change

history projections

2022
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

 other

 Monterey

 Woodford

 Austin Chalk

 Niobrara

 Eagle Ford

 Bakken

 Avalon/Bone Springs*

 Spraberry*

 Wolfcamp*

*Permian Basin

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 20, 2022

Bakken and Wolfcamp lead production throughout projection period

Crude oil production by selected tight oil plays

million barrels per day

7 Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change

history projections

2022
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Note: 1 trillion cubic feet = 2.74 billion cubic feet per day

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 20, 2022

U.S. dry natural gas production after 2025 is lower than in AEO2022

U.S. dry natural gas production 

trillion cubic feet

8 Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change

history projections

2022
Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 20, 2022

Shale gas leads growth in U.S. dry natural gas production in AEO2023

U.S. dry natural gas production by type 

trillion cubic feet

9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

shale gas plays

other lower 48 states 

onshore

Lower 48 states 

offshore

Alaska

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change

history projections

2022
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

 Antrim

 Fayetteville

 Barnett

 Bakken

 Woodford

 Eagle Ford

 Haynesville/Bossier

 other

 Utica

 Marcellus

Note: Other includes natural gas production in tight oil plays.

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 20, 2022

Marcellus, Haynesville, Utica, and other tight oil plays ( such as the Permian) are the 

major contributors to U.S. shale gas production

Dry natural gas production by selected shale play

trillion cubic feet

10 Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change

history projections

2022
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Note: 1 Tcf = 2.74 Bcf/d

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 20, 2022

U.S. dry natural gas production from oil formations (that is, co-produced with oil) is 

higher than in AEO2022

U.S. dry natural gas production 

trillion cubic feet

11 Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change

history projections

2022
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, September 20, 2022.

Natural gas plant liquids production is lower than in AEO2022 after 2025

U.S. natural gas plant liquids production

million barrels per day

12 Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change

history projections

2022
Liquid Fuels Markets

13 Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
AEO2023 Liquid Fuels Market Module and International 

Energy Module updates

14

• International crude oil and petroleum product import and export curves

• Crude oil price differentials by crude oil type

• Pipeline capacity and transport costs

• State and federal fuel taxes

• Historical and Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) liquid fuels data

• Capacity updates for refinery and cogeneration

– Refinery capacity closures and planned capacity delays

• Unfinished oils imports from Russia substituted with imports from other countries

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
AEO2023 Liquid Fuels Market Module biofuels updates

15

• Annual and bi-annual updates for biofuels

– Increased planned renewable diesel capacity and decreased biodiesel capacity

– Added some existing and planned sustainable aviation fuel capacity

– Increased the E15 max penetration rate slightly

• Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandate

– Updated to reflect EPA’s final rulemaking from June 2022

– Flat-lined after 2022

• Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)

– Added to represent HEFA SAF as a process unit capable of producing renewable diesel and/or SAF 

from the same feedstock

• Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program (CFP)

– Added to represent Oregon’s CFP based on existing representation of California’s Low Carbon Fuel 

Standard 

– Had negligible impact on overall results

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

High price

Reference

Low price

preliminary AEO2023 cases 

AEO2022 Reference

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 24, 2022

Brent crude oil prices are higher over the projection period compared with AEO2022

16

2022

history projections

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.

Brent crude oil spot price

2022 dollars per barrel
Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 24, 2022

The Brent-WTI price spread rises in the near term and then remains under $4 per barrel 

in the projection period, similar to AEO2022

Brent-WTI price spread

2022 dollars per barrel

17

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

2022

history projections

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
Crude oil exports decline a little in the near term and are projected to remain under 25% of 

total crude oil production

18

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 24, 2022

Gross crude oil exports 

million barrels per day

Crude oil exports as a fraction of total domestic crude oil production 

percentage

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

2022

history projections

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2022

history projections
Total crude oil supply to U.S. refineries reflects lower atmospheric distillation capacity in 

the near term due to lower refining capacity while maintaining strong utilization levels over 

the projection period

19

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 24, 2022

Total crude oil supply to U.S. refineries 

million barrels per day

Average U.S. refinery utilization 

percentage

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2022

history projections

70

75

80

85

90

95

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

2022

history projections
Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 19, 2022

Projected domestic petroleum product consumption is slightly lower in AEO2023, met 

by domestic production and net imports of crude oil-based and biofuels-based products

U.S. domestic petroleum product consumption

million barrels per day

20

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

2022

history projections

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 19, 2022

Gross product exports are projected to be higher compared with AEO2022 to compensate 

for lower domestic demand; gross product imports remain unchanged.

Gross product imports and gross product exports

million barrels per day

21

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

history projections

product exports

product imports

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

2022

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 19, 2022

For AEO2023, the spread between gasoline and diesel prices will be narrow in the near 

term before evening out to a slightly wider price spread compared with AEO2022

Diesel and gasoline end-use prices

2020 dollars per gallon

22

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

diesel

gasoline

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

2022

history projections

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Biofuels supply will be slightly lower than in AEO2022 due to lower motor gasoline 

demand, but will increase in 2023 and 2024 due to IRA biofuels subsidies

23

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 19, 2022

Biofuels supply

million barrels per day

2022

history projections

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.

Note: Supply = domestic production plus net imports
0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2022

history projections

Renewable diesel supply outpaces biodiesel supply as a result of updated current and 

planned capacity

24

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 runs, dated September 19, 2022

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

2022

history projections

Biodiesel supply

billion gallons

Renewable diesel supply

billion gallons

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.

Note: Supply = domestic production plus net imports
Natural Gas Markets

25 Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
• Natural Gas Annual released September 2021 (2020 annual data)

• Natural Gas Monthly through April 2022 (complete 2021 history)

• Historical data for Mexico and Canada through 2021

• Pipeline capacity and pipeline projects tracked by EIA

• Updates to natural gas spot price data 

• These changes between AEO2022 and preliminary AEO2023 projections are driven by 

external changes in assumptions:

– World oil price assumptions

– Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast

– Impacts from the Inflation Reduction Act in the upstream and electric sectors 

Data updates and changes for AEO2023 

26 Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
Addition of sub-state demand nodes for Texas

27

East

West

North

direction of natural 

gas flow in most runs

OK

AR

LA

NM

Mexico

intrastate flow

LNG export 

terminals

• To improve representation of projected 

natural gas flows within Texas, 

particularly Permian to Gulf of Mexico 

pipeline capacity constraints, Texas was 

split into three distinct demand nodes 

for AEO2023

• Regions are based on Texas Railroad 

Commission Oil and Gas Districts

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.

Note: NM = New Mexico, OK = Oklahoma, AR = Arkansas, and LA = Louisiana; LNG = liquefied natural gas
0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

production

consumption

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 run, dated September 20, 2022; U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022

U.S. natural gas consumption and production are lower compared with AEO2022 as 

IRA provisions decrease natural gas production long term

U.S. dry natural gas production and consumption in the Reference case

trillion cubic feet

28

2022

history projections

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 run, dated September 20, 2022; U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022

In AEO2023, the U.S. Henry Hub natural gas spot price falls from its 2022 highs before 

settling into a price of slightly over $4.00 per million British thermal units by 2035, 

which is higher than in AEO2022

Henry Hub natural gas spot price in the Reference case

2022 dollars per million British thermal units

29

2022

history projections

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 run, dated September 20, 2022; U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022

Early AEO2023 results suggest a large decline in natural gas consumption in the electric 

power sector relative to AEO2022, primarily due to impacts from the Inflation Reduction 

Act on the electric power sector

U.S. natural gas consumption in the electric power sector

trillion cubic feet

30

2022

history projections

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

U.S. natural gas imports from Canada

trillion cubic feet

U.S. natural gas exports to Canada

trillion cubic feet

Imports from Canada are higher in AEO2023 compared with AEO2022; exports to 

Canada mostly unchanged

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 run, dated September 20, 2022; U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022

31

2022

history projections

2022

history projections

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2022

history projections

• Factors affecting projected exports to Mexico:

– Lower domestic production relative to 

AEO2022

– Decreases to Mexico’s natural gas generating 

capacity in the second half of the projection 

period (International Energy Outlook 2021)

– Favorable LNG economics for Gulf Coast 

production increases regional demand and, 

as a result, prices for natural gas

U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico

trillion cubic feet

Pipeline exports to Mexico are lower than in AEO2022 and are projected to 

grow in the near term and ultimately peak near 2035

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 run, dated September 20, 2022; U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022

32

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
Updated LNG export assumptions

• Dates of projects under construction in AEO2023:

• Other updates:

– Shifted first year of allowed endogenous LNG builds from six years in the future (2028) to five 

years (2027)

– Considering changes to number of trains that can come online in a given year

33 Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.

LNG project AEO2022 assumed

in-service date

AEO2023 assumed

in-service date Baseload capacity

Golden Pass Train 1 January 2024 December 2023 0.68 Bcf/d

Golden Pass Train 2 July 2024 July 2024 0.68 Bcf/d

Golden Pass Train 3 January 2025 December 2024 0.68 Bcf/d

Plaquemines N/A December 2024 1.58 Bcf/d

Corpus Christi Stage III N/A December 2025 1.32 Bcf/d

Note: Bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

AEO2022 U.S. LNG exports by side case

trillion cubic feet

U.S. LNG exports in Reference case

trillion cubic feet

LNG exports are higher in AEO2023 compared with AEO2022 because of more 

favorable LNG export economics

Data source: Preliminary AEO2023 run, dated September 20, 2022; U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022

34

existing and under construction 

U.S. LNG export capacity 

(nameplate)

2022

history projections

2021

history projections

preliminary AEO2023 Reference

AEO2022 Reference

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

High Oil 

Price

High Oil & 

Gas Supply

Reference

Low Oil & 

Gas Supply

Low Oil Price
Contacts

35 Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.

Team Lead: Mindi Farber-DeAnda: mindi.farber-deanda@eia.gov

Lead Modeler: Katie Dyl: kathryn.dyl@eia.gov

Oil & Gas Supply Module:

Will Sommer: william.sommer@eia.gov

Liquid Fuels Market Module:

General: Peter Colletti: peter.colletti@eia.gov

Biofuels: Estella Shi: estella.shi@eia.gov

International Energy Module:

Adrian Geagla: adrian.geagla@eia.gov

Natural Gas Markets Module:

Stephen York: stephen.york@eia.gov

Mary Webber: mary.webber@eia.gov
We welcome feedback on our assumptions and documentation

• Working group meetings http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/

• The AEO Assumptions report http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/

• NEMS Model Documentation

– Oil and gas supply (OGSM) 

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/nems/documentation/ogsm/pdf/m063(2020).pdf

– Natural gas market (NGMM) 

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/nems/documentation/ngmm/pdf/ngmm(2022).pdf

– Liquid fuels market (LFMM) 

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/nems/documentation/integrating/pdf/integrating-2022.pdf

– International energy (IEM) 

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/nems/documentation/international/pdf/IEM_AEO2022_Documentation.pdf

• Trends and Expectations Surrounding the Outlook for Energy Markets

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/trends_expectations.php/

36 Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.
U.S. Energy Information Administration homepage | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

International Energy Statistics database | www.eia.gov/ies

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please subscribe at https://www.eia.gov/tools/emailupdates/. 

Central AEO email address: AnnualEnergyOutlook@eia.gov

For more information

37 Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling Working group presentation for discussion purposes.

AEO2023 Working Group September 29, 2022 Do not quote or cite because results are subject to change.