U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

AEO2015 Preliminary Oil & Natural Gas 

Production & Price Results

for 

Second Working Group

September 16, 2014

by

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Analysis

DRAFT – DO NOT CITE
Overview

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 2

• Production

• Liquids imports

• Natural gas supply and delivered prices

• Natural gas consumption

• Pipeline imports/exports

• LNG exports
OGSM

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 3
Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 4
Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 5
Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 6
Dry natural gas

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production 

to a plateau of over 11 mmbd through 2030

8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. crude oil production

million barrels per day

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14

Tight oil

Alaska

Other lower 48 onshore

Lower 48 offshore

History 2012 Projections

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Projected crude oil production from tight oil plays in AEO 2015

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 Other

 Wolfcamp

 Monterey

 Avalon/Bone Springs

 Niobrara

 Spraberry

 Austin Chalk

 Woodford

 Eagle Ford

 Bakken

Crude oil production

million barrels per day

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14

9 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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2012
Crude oil production by selected tight oil plays

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 10

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 Bakken

 Eagle Ford

 Woodford

 Austin Chalk

 Spraberry

 Niobrara

 Avalon/Bone Springs

 Monterey

 Wolfcamp

 Other

Crude oil production

million barrels per day

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14
Natural gas production by selected shale play

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 11

Natural gas production

trillion cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 Barnett

 Haynesville/Bossier

 Fayetteville

 Woodford

 Eagle Ford

 Antrim

 Marcellus

 Bakken

Marcellus

Haynesville/Bossier

Eagle Ford

Fayetteville

Barnett

Woodford

Bakken

Antrim
Shale gas production by play

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 Bakken

 Marcellus

 Antrim

 Eagle Ford

 Woodford

 Fayetteville

 Haynesville/Bossier

 Barnett

Natural gas production

trillion cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14

12 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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2013
Shale gas production leads growth in production through 2040

13

U.S. dry natural gas production

trillion cubic feet

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Shale gas

Alaska

Other onshore

Lower 48 offshore

History 2012 Projections

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14
NGPL production is significantly higher than last year’s AEO

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 14

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Natural gas plant liquids production

million barrels per day

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14

2012

– AEO2015P

-- AEO2014

History Projections
U.S. import share of liquid fuels declines due to increased 

production of tight oil and gas liquids, and greater fuel efficiency

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. liquid fuels supply

million barrels per day

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release

History Projections

Natural gas plant liquids

Petroleum production

Biofuels excluding imports

Net petroleum and biofuel 

imports

17%

7%

37%

38%

5%

45%

38%

12%

Liquids from natural gas and coal 1%

2011

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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OLD SLIDE
U.S. import share of liquid fuels declines due to increased 

production of tight oil and gas liquids, and greater fuel efficiency

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. liquid fuels supply

million barrels per day

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14

History Projections

Natural gas plant liquids

Petroleum production

Biofuels excluding imports

Net petroleum and biofuel 

imports

22%

6%

15%

57%

5%

40%

41%

14%

2012

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Natural Gas Markets

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Prices, 1995-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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2013 dollars per million Btu

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

AEO2015P

AEO2014

STEO - 9/2014
Natural Gas End-User Prices, 1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 19

2013 dollars per thousand cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2015P

AEO2014

Residential

Industrial

Electric Utility
Natural gas consumption, production, and trade, 1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 20

trillion cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

Consumption

Production

AEO2015P

AEO2014

Net Imports 

Net Exports 
Natural gas consumption by sector, 1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 21

trillion cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

Industrial*

Electric Power

Residential

Commercial

Transportation**

AEO2015P

AEO2014

* Includes lease and plant fuel, and natural gas-to-liquids heat, power, and production

** Includes pipeline fuel
Net U.S. imports by source, 1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 22

trillion cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14

AEO2015P

AEO2014

History Projections

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

LNG

Mexico

Canada
U.S. natural gas imports and exports

trillion cubic feet per year

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AEO2014

Alaska LNG exports

Pipeline exports to Mexico

Pipeline exports 

to Canada

Lower 48 states LNG exports

Pipeline imports 

from Canada

LNG imports

U.S. natural gas gross exports exceed 6 tcf in 2025

23

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AEO2015P

Pipeline exports 

to Mexico

Lower-48 

LNG exports

Source: AEO2014 compared with the preliminary AEO2015 runs, dated as of 09/12/14

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Additional Slides

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 24
As of July 9, FE has received applications to export LNG to 

non-FTA countries that total 36.02 Bcfd

25

Facility State Size

(Bcfd)

Start 

year

Sabine Pass LA 2.2 2015

Total 2.2

DOE/FERC approved

(under construction) Facility State Size

(Bcfd)

Start 

year

Sabine Pass LA 2.2 2015

Freeport TX 1.8 2018

Lake Charles LA 2.0 2019

Cove Point MD 0.77 2017

Cameron LA 1.7 2018

Jordon Cove OR 0.8 2018/

19

Oregon LNG OR 1.25 2019

Total 10.52

Non-FTA export FE approval

Facility State Size

(Bcfd)

Start 

year

Corpus Christi TX 2.1 2018

Jordon Cove OR 0.9 2018/19

Lake Charles LA 2.2 2019

Cove Point MD 0.82 2017

Oregon LNG OR 1.25 2019

Lavaca Bay TX 1.38 2019

Elba Island GA 0.35 2016/17

Sabine Pass 

expansion

LA 1.40 2018

Magnolia LA 1.07 2018

CE FLNG LA 1.07 2018

Golden Pass TX 2.1 ~2019

Gulf LNG MS 1.5

Louisiana LNG LA 0.3

Total 18.24

FERC Certificate App. filed 

Facility State Size

(Bcfd)

Start 

year

Cameron LA 1.7 2018

Freeport TX 1.8 2018

Total 3.5

DOE/FERC approved

Red font denotes SPAs in place

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 2nd Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, September 16, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change