October 25, 2013

MEMORANDUM FOR: JOHN CONTI

ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR FOR ENERGY 

ANALYSIS

 PAUL HOLTBERG 

TEAM LEADER

ANALYSIS INTEGRATION TEAM

JAMES TURNURE

DIRECTOR

OFFICE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND EFFICIENCY 

ANALYSIS

FROM: BUILDINGS CONSUMPTION & EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS 

TEAM

SUBJECT: Second AEO2014 Buildings Sector Working Group Meeting 

Summary (presented on 09-26-2013)

Attendees: James Berry (EIA OES)

Stephanie Burns (IMT)

Gwendolyn Bredehoeft (EIA OEA)

Colin McMillan (NREL)

Bill McNary (EIA OES)

Shirley Neff (EIA OA)

Attending by Phone: Justin Baca (SEIA)

Ed Cureg (EIA OES)

John Ackerly (Alliance for Green Heat)

Xiaojing Sun (Georgia Tech)

Matt Cox (Georgia Tech)

Frances Wood (OnLocation)

Kenneth Dubin (OnLocation)

Robert Lorand (SAIC)

John Meyer (SAIC)

David Belzer (PNNL)

Sameer Kwatra (ACEEE)

Presenters: Owen Comstock

Kevin Jarzomski

Steve Wade
2

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

The buildings presentation provided a discussion of the progress on projects and preliminary 

results for AEO2014. An overview of the projects discussed is included in the presentation 

materials provided as a separate attachment.

Specific discussion/questions:

1. When discussing 2009 residential end use consumption for AEO2014 compared to 

AEO2013, a participant asked how the changes in heating and cooling for 2009 came 

about. EIA staff explained that the changes were a result of the update to 2009 

Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) data, which allocates more energy 

use to space heating than the model results for 2009 in AEO2013. 

2. Discussion of the decision to tie data center server growth to the growth rate for 

service sector output led a participant to ask what is included in service sector output. 

EIA staff explained that the NEMS Macroeconomic Activity Module includes 

projected service sector output. For AEO2014, data center servers are assumed to 

grow at the same rate as total service sector output after subtracting out utilities.

3. During solar-related discussion, participants asked if EIA has plans to incorporate 

third-party financing for solar photovoltaic (PV) systems given that an increasingly 

large portion of these systems are sold under lease or power purchase agreement 

structures. EIA staff explained that there are no immediate plans to include additional 

financing alternatives. EIA has talked with NREL analysts conducting research on 

PV pricing trends and will continue to follow developments in the PV market. 

Further discussion revealed that only data from the “top states” can be obtained at this 

time for analysis of third-party financing and participants commented that even if 

included in NEMS, projected adoption would probably not increase relative to the 

current modeling structure that assumes PV systems are financed with the mortgage.

4. A participant asked why EIA does not look at residential biomass heating more. EIA 

staff responded that biomass heating is included in the residential projections and in 

the AEO tables as well as in the Winter Fuels Outlook report that accompanies the 

Short-Term Energy Outlook. Scarcity of comprehensive consumption and pricing 

data limit opportunities for more detailed projections.

Complete Listing of Invitees:

Ackerly, John (Alliance for Green Heat)

Alex, Aileen (DOE)

Alschuler, Elena (DOE EERE)

Amann, Jennifer (ACEEE)

Ames, Mark (ASHRAE)

Anderson, David (PNNL)

Antypas, Yanna (EIA OEA)

Azevedo, Ines (Carnegie Mellon)

Baca, Justin (SEIA)

Bahei-Eldin, Ahmed (GE)
3

Barbour, Edward (Navigant)

Barker, Breton Nmn (DOE EERE)

Bell, Mathias (Rocky Mountain Institute)

Belzer, Dave (PNNL)

Bergman, Aaron (DOE PI)

Berry, James (EIA OES)

Bredehoeft, Gwendolyn (EIA OEA)

Brodrick, James (DOE EERE)

Brown, Austin (NREL)

Brown, Marilyn (Georgia Tech)

Burns, Stephanie (IMT)

Carmichael, Robert (Navigant)

Carroll, Ryan (Alliance for Green Heat)

Chase, Alex (Energy Solutions)

Cogan, Jonathan (EIA OC)

Conti, John (EIA OEA)

Cureg, Edgardo (EIA OES)

Cymbalsky, John H (DOE EERE)

Daniels, David (EIA OEA)

deLaski, Andrew (Appliance Standards Awareness Project)

Dion, Jerry (DOE EERE)

Dirks, James A (PNNL)

Doliner, JD (Alliance for Green Heat)

Drury, Easan (NREL)

Feldman, Dave (NREL)

Fireovid, James (SAIC)

Friedrichs, Mark (DOE EERE)

Frisch, Carla (DOE EERE)

Garg, Rishi (Office of the People’s Counsel-DC)

Gruenspecht, Howard (EIA)

Harris, Jeff (ASE)

Harvey, Stephen (EIA OES)

Henry, Dave (DOC)

Hodson, Elke (DOE)

Holtberg, Paul (EIA OEA)

Hunter, David (EPRI)

Kaarsberg, Tina (DOE EERE)

Kelso, Jordan (D&R International)

Kwatra, Sameer (ACEEE)

Laitner, Skip (Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates)

Larsen, John (DOE PI)

Leifman, Michael (GE)

Lewis, Katie (EIA OES)
4

Livingston, Olga V (PNNL)

Lorand, Robert (SAIC)

Lu, Ruey-Pyng (EIA OES)

Majersik, Cliff (IMT)

Margolis, Robert (NREL)

Marnay, Chris (LBNL)

Mayclin, Danielle (EIA OES)

Mayes, Fred (EIA OEA)

McDonald, Sean (PNNL)

McMillan, Colin (NREL)

McNary, William (EIA OES)

Meyer, John (SAIC)

Michaels, Joelle (EIA OES)

Mignone, Bryan NMN (DOE PI)

Nachbaur, James (DOE EERE)

Narayanan, Raj (GE)

Neff, Shirley (EIA)

Neubauer, Max (ACEEE)

Nicholls, Andrew (PNNL)

Niebling, Charles (Alliance for Green Heat)

Nordman, Bruce (LBNL)

O'Brien, Eileen (EIA OES)

Olsen, Jay (EIA OES)

Palmer, Karen (RFF)

Pearson, Gina (EIA)

Ramea, Kalai (UC Davis)

Rosenquist, Gregory J. (LBNL)

Schuur, Arah (DOE EERE)

Steinberg, Daniel (NREL)

Stellberg, Sarah (IMT)

Stokes, Kem (DOC)

Swenson, Alan (EIA OES)

Taylor, Cody (DOE EERE)

Ulrey, Peri (NGSA)

Utzman-O'Neill, Diane (HHT)

Wang, Joy (Georgia Tech)

Wang, Yu (Georgia Tech)

Wiser, Ryan (LBNL)

Wood, Frances(OnLocation)

Yeh, Sonia (UC Davis)

Zakerinia, Saleh (UC Davis)