U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Preliminary Reference Case Results for

Oil

AEO2013 Oil and Gas Supply Working Group Meeting

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis

October 4, 2012 | Washington, DC

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2013P uses ref2013.d100312b

AEO2012 uses ref2012.d020112c
Changes for AEO2013

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Oil Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 2

• Revised shale & tight play resources (EURs, type curves)

• Updated classification of shale gas, tight gas, & tight oil 

reservoirs

• Updated offshore announced discoveries

• Updated assumptions for Canada 

• Estimated world natural gas prices in order to endogenously 

model LNG exports

• Updated methodology for calculating the Henry Hub price

• Updated historical data and related parameters
Oil price cases for AEO2013P compared to AEO2012 

annual average price of light, low sulfur crude oil

real 2011 dollars per barrel

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

3 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Oil Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

High Oil Price

Reference

Low Oil Price

AEO2013P

AEO2012
0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. reliance on imported liquid fuels is reduced by increased 

domestic production and greater fuel efficiency

4

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/2012

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Oil Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

2005 2012

million barrels per day

History Projections

61%

Peak 42% Net Imports 34%

Consumption

Production

AEO 2013P

AEO 2012
Buildings

Industrial (23%)

Transportation (71%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Liquid fuels consumption by sector, 1990-2040

million barrels per day

5

2012

History Projections

Electricity Generators

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/2012

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Oil Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Multiple factors have contributed to crude oil resource estimate 

increases over the years, with tight oil contributing recently 

6

U.S. crude oil and lease condensate resources in non-prohibited areas 

billion barrels

(1) The USGS reduced NPR-A resource estimates, which is responsible for the lower AEO2013 Alaska resources.

(2) Prior to AEO2009, resources in Pacific, Atlantic, and Eastern GOM OCS were under moratoria and not included.

(3) Includes shale oil. Prior to AEO2011, tight oil is included in unproved other lower-48 onshore category.

P

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/2012

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year of Annual Energy Outlook

Unproved Alaska (1)

Unproved L48 Offshore (2)

Unproved Tight Oil (3)

Unproved Tight Oil (reclassified from onshore)

Unproved Other L48 Onshore

Proved Reserves

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Oil Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Lower 48 unproved tight oil resources (million bbls)

7

* AEO2012 values in this table were only for oil and did not include condensates. AEO2013 Preliminary: includes both oil and condensates.

REGION BASIN PLAY AEO2013 AEO2012 *

Marcellus 1,577

Utica 3,489

Austin Chalk 7,096 2,303

Cotton Valley/Bossier 291

Eagle Ford Shale 11,629 3,350

Vicksburg 89

Wilcox/Lobo 37

Woodford Shale 688 387

Granite Wash / Atoka 1,069

Abo / Canyon 932

Avalon/Bone Springs Shale 1,763 1,576

Barnett 183

Spraberry 3,418 521

Wolfcamp 2,303

Denver Niobrara 1,444 599

Greater Green River 103

Montana Thrust Belt 602 652

Powder River Basin Mowry/Niobrara 2,417 2,349

San Juan 62

Southwestern Wyoming Niobrara 1,970 1,970

Uinta-Piceance / Paradox 122 507

Williston Bakken Shale 11,058 3,587

West Coast San Joaquin/Los Angeles Monterey/Santos Shale 13,712 13,992

66,056 31,791

Southwest Permian

Rocky Mountains 

Total 

East Appalachian 

Gulf Coast West Gulf

Midcontinent Anadarko

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Oil Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Lower 48 unproved tight oil resources (million bbls)

8

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 run 10/03/2012

Basin Play

Oil Condensates Total Oil Condensates Total

Appalachian Marcellus 898 898 70,519 70,519

Utica 938 - 938 47,238 47,238

West Gulf Austin Chalk 7,809 7,809 79,850 79,850

Cotton Valley/Bossier 755 755 47,321 47,321

Eagle Ford 6,437 5,560 11,996 20,048 31,597 51,645

Vicksburg 88 88 2,875 2,875

Wilcox/Lobo 42 42 7,076 7,076

Anadarko Woodford 475 1,330 1,805 22,234 12,945 35,179

Granite Wash/Atoka 650 650 10,160 10,160

Permian Abo/Canyon 768 768 63,403 63,403

Avalon/Bonespring 2,420 2,420 12,700 12,700

Barnett 207 207 11,208 11,208

Spraberry 3,487 3,487 5,539 5,539

Wolfcamp 2,326 2,326 11,709 11,709

Denver 1,444 1,444 39,185 39,185

Greater Green River 42 42 15,105 15,105

Montana Thrust Belt 602 602 5,433 5,433

Powder River 2,417 2,417 63,488 63,488

San Juan 67 67 33,226 33,226

Southwestern Wyoming 1,972 1,972 17,691 17,691

Uinta/Piceance 68 - 68 1,367 12,379 13,746

Williston Bakken 10,414 10,414 37,366 37,366

San Joaquin/Los Angeles Monterey/Santos 13,712 13,712 27,613 27,613

 54,521 10,406 64,927 344,223 365,052 709,275

TRR (mmb) Wells Needed to Develop TRR

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Oil Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Domestic crude oil production by source, 1990-2040

9

U.S. crude oil production

million barrels per day

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, and AEO2013 Preliminary run 10/03/2012

History 2012 Projections

Alaska

Lower 48 offshore

Lower 48 onshore

Total

AEO 2013P

AEO 2012

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Oil Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Lower 48 onshore oil production, 2005-2040

10

million barrels per day

Onshore Other + Tight Oil + Other EOR

CO2 EOR

History Projections

2012

AEO 2013P

AEO 2012

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/2012. 

Note: Sum of two sets of lines equals L48 onshore total.

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Oil Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
11

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Eagle Ford

Bakken

Granite Wash

Bonespring

Monterey

Woodford

Niobrara

Spraberry

Austin Chalk

Tight oil production estimates

Source tight oil: HPDI, Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through May 2012. 

million barrels per day

May 2012 Production

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Oil Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

1%

19%

3%

0%

1%

4%

1%

39%

32%
0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 Other (i.e. condensates)

 Wolfcamp

 Monterey

 Avalon/Bone Springs

 Niobrara

 Spraberry

 Austin Chalk

 Woodford

 Eagle Ford

 Bakken

Projected crude oil production from tight oil plays in 

AEO 2013

12

million barrels per day

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/2012

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Oil Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Cumulative production in Bakken, Eagle Ford and Spraberry by 

2040 is over 60% of current unproved TRR

13

Selected plays

million barrels

Tight Oil 

Unproved 

Resource

Cumulative 

Production 

2008-2040

Share of 

resource

 Bakken 11,058 8,214 74%

 Eagle Ford 6,359 4,413 69%

 Woodford 537 167 31%

 Austin Chalk 7,096 705 10%

 Spraberry 3,418 2,062 60%

 Niobrara 6,503 682 10%

 Avalon/Bone Springs 1,763 824 47%

 Monterey 13,712 260 2%

 Wolfcamp 2,303 602 26%

 Other (e.g. condensates, Utica, ) 13,307 1,654 12%

Total 66,055 19,581 30%

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Oil Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/2012
For more information

14

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Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Oil Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change