U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2015:

For

AEO2015 Working Group

July 30, 2014 | Washington, DC

By

Nicholas Chase, Trisha Hutchins, John Maples

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

Modeling updates in the transportation sector
Data updates

2

• Update historical fuel consumption data to latest state energy 

data (2011), annual national data from Monthly Energy 

Review (2012), and most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook

• Update historical light-duty vehicle attribute data through 

2013 (pending)

• Update historical light-duty vehicle fleet operations share 

(pending)

• Update historical aircraft sales, stock, travel, and fuel use 

data (pending)

• Update heavy-duty vehicle sales and travel demand through 

2014

AEO2015 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., July 30, 2014 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Data updates (continued)

3

• Update historical freight rail travel demand and efficiency 

through 2013

• Update historical domestic marine travel demand through 

2012

• Update historical lubricant and recreational boating energy 

consumption

AEO2015 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., July 30, 2014 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Modeling updates

4

• New regional freight travel demand methodology (truck, rail, 

domestic marine)

– Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) data instead of Commodity Flow Survey 

(CFS)

– Shortest route method used for trucks to estimate travel demand share in 

between origin and destination points

– Re-estimation of travel demand metrics

• Re-estimation of coefficients for air model equations

– Revenue ton mile, aircraft sales, and yield coefficient updates 

AEO2015 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., July 30, 2014 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) and shortest route 

optimization compared to Commodity Flow Survey, Truck 2007

5

chemicals 

rubber

plastic

primary 

metals

processed 

food

paper 

products

petroleum 

products

stone 

clay 

glass 

concrete

metal 

durables

other 

manuf agricul mining

-15% +21% -42% -37% +24% -12% -4% -11% +108% +33%

Commodity

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

-23% -21% -6% +40% -13% +24% -11% +121% -33%

Census Division

• Increase in truck travel through intermediate regions (census 

divisions 4,6,8)

• FAF better captures non-manufactured goods moving on 

trucks (primary metals, petroleum products, agriculture, and 

mining) and domestic legs of international trade flows 

AEO2015 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., July 30, 2014 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) compared to 

Commodity Flow Survey, 2007

6

• Rail

– Substantial reduction in census division 8

– Substantial reduction in coal and increase in all other commodity groups

• Domestic marine

– Substantial increase in ton-miles in census divisions 5 and 9, substantial 

reductions in census divisions 3, 4, and 7

– Substantial increase in petroleum products and decrease in agricultural 

products

AEO2015 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., July 30, 2014 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Comments/Discussion

7

• Pressing suggestions for AEO2015

• Comments or suggestions for AEO2016

– Contact Transportation Team if interested in taking part in topical Working 

Group meetings starting early next year

AEO2015 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., July 30, 2014 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Discussion/questions

8

Nicholas Chase | phone: 202-586-8851 

| email: nicholas.chase@eia.gov

Trisha Hutchins | phone: 202-586-1029 

| email: patricia.hutchins@eia.gov

John Maples | phone: 202-586-1757 

| email: john.maples@eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

AEO2015 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., July 30, 2014 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate