U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2016

2nd Coal Working Group

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team

February 9, 2016| Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS 

AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Key results for the AEO2016 Reference case

2

• Coal-fired generation, production, and capacity are all lower in the 

preliminary AEO2016 Reference case 

– Coal’s share of total electricity generation falls from 38% in 2014 to 

18% by 2040, compared to 33% in AEO2015

– Coal production decreases from 996 million tons in 2014 to 640 million 

tons by 2040, compared to 1,117 in AEO2015

– Coal capacity retirements accelerate in the period from 2015 to 2040 

to 109 GW, compared to only 37 in AEO2015

• The key drivers behind the reduction in the outlook for coal relative 

to the AEO2015 results include:

– The inclusion of the final Clean Power Plan (CPP)

– Lower projected natural gas prices

– A reduction in the estimated installation costs for renewables 

compared to higher costs for coal-fired generation (with partial CCS)

– Lower coal export expectations

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
AEO2016 Reference case final Clean Power 

Plan must assume some policy choices

3

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

• The Reference case will assume that states select a massbased approach that covers both new and existing sources

• Credit trading will be represented at the EMM region level

• Allowances will be allocated to load serving entities

• Side cases will explore alternative approaches 

– Rate-based regulation

– Credit trading at the interconnect level

– Allocation of allowances to generators

– No Clean Power Plan

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Natural Gas prices are significantly lower than 

AEO 2015

4

2013$/MMBtu

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

Source: AEO2016 NEMS run ref2016.1.0203a.RAN, AEO2015 Ref2015, rf15_111_all.0306a.RAN

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

Coal- AEO2016 Reference Coal-AEO2015 Reference

Coal-2015 EIA Clean Power Plan Study Gas- AEO2016 Reference

Gas-AEO2015 Reference Gas-2015 EIA Clean Power Plan Study

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
We have commissioned a new study to 

update power-sector capital costs

5

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

• We have limited the scope of the update to technologies we 

think may have changed substantially and technologies that 

are likely to be built in the model

• The initial cost estimates are complete

• Stakeholder outreach identified several key questions/issues

– Need for a 111b compliant coal technology

– Lack of differentiation between fixed tilt and tracking PV costs

– Large discrepancy for wind costs with other public sources

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal, solar, and wind capital costs differ 

significantly from AEO2015 assumptions

6

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

* Technology specification on some items may have changed from report to report. Pulverized coal has changed from super-critical to 

ultra-supercritical with 30% CCS.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Pulverized Coal * Coal/Biomass Co-Fire

(15%Biomass)

Adv Gas/Oil Comb.

Cycle

Conv Gas/Oil Comb

Cycle

Conventional Comb.

Turbine

Advanced Comb.

Turbine

PV (fixed tilt) PV (tracker) Wind Farm - Onshore

Total Overnight Capital Costs (2014$/KW)

2014$/KW Leidos 2015 (latest) AEO 2015 SAIC 2013 R.W. Beck 2010

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
U.S. electricity net generation

trillion kilowatthours

Source: Preliminary AEO2016 (NEMS run ref2016.d020616a)

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

13%

Renewables and natural gas together account for 66% of 

generation in 2040 while coal’s share falls to 18%

27%

19%

38%

13%

1%

Nuclear

Oil and other liquids

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables

History 2014 Projections

16%

26%

18%

40%

1%

1993

11%

13%

19%

53%

4%

33%

18%

26%

22%

1%

2025 2040

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2040

8

billion kilowatthours

Coal

Petroleum

Natural Gas

Renewables

Nuclear

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Note: Includes generation from plants in both the electric power and end-use sectors.

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review; 

Projections: Preliminary AEO2016 (NEMS run ref2016.d020616a)

History 2014 Projections

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2040

9

billion kilowatthours

Renewables

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015

Note: Includes generation from plants in both the electric power and end-use sectors.

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review; 

Projections: Preliminary AEO2016 (NEMS run ref2016.d020616a), AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015).

History 2014 Projections

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Natural 

Gas

Coal
Natural gas, renewables, and coal-fired generation, AEO2015 Reference 

Case, EIA CPP Study 2015 vs. preliminary AEO2016

10

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

Source: AEO2016 NEMS run ref2016.0206a.RAN, rf15_111_all.0306a.RAN

Billion kilowatthours Billion kilowatthours

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Coal-AEO2015 Reference

Gas-AEO2015 Reference

Renew-AEO2015 Reference

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Coal-AEO2016 Reference

Gas-AEO2016 Reference

Renew-AEO2016 Reference

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Coal-2015 EIA Clean Power Plan Study

Gas-2015 EIA Clean Power Plan Study

Renew-2015 EIA Clean Power Plan Study

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Total coal production, 1970-2040

11

million short tons

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AEO2016

CPP Base Policy

AEO2015

History 2014* Projections

Source: Preliminary AEO2016 (ref2016.d020616a), AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015), proposed Clean 

Power Plan (rf15_111_all.d030615a; *2014 data is estimated.

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal production by region, 1970-2040

12

million short tons

Appalachia

Interior

Western

Total U.S.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

16 Total U.S.

15 Total U.S.

AEO2016

AEO2015

History 2014* Projections

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Source: Preliminary AEO2016 (ref2016.d020616a), AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015), proposed Clean 

Power Plan (rf15_111_all.d030615a *2014 data is estimated.
Coal production by region, 1970-2040

13

million short tons

Appalachia

Interior

Western

Total U.S.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

proposed...

15 Total U.S. AEO2016

CPP Base Policy

2014* History Projections

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Source: Preliminary AEO2016 (ref2016.d020616a), AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015), proposed Clean 

Power Plan (rf15_111_all.d030615a
Coal production, AEO2016 vs. AEO 2015 in 2040 (and 2014*) 

(million short tons)

14

233

5 – 5 (14)

62

18 – 30 (26)

1 – 1 (1) 129 – 239 (143)

86 – 130 (137)

46 – 83 (120)

13 – 16 (19)

39 – 60 (46)

18 - 29 (30)

20 – 26 (42)

238 – 430 (380)*

5 – 4 (1)**

24 – 58 (37)

U.S. Total: 

640 – 1,117 (996)

Source: *2014 (preliminary): Mine Safety and Health Administration, Form 7000-2, “Quarterly Mine and Employment

and Coal Production Report;” 2040: Preliminary AEO2016 (NEMS run ref2016.d020616a); and AEO2015.

* Includes production from all mines in 

Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.

** Includes production from mines in both 

Alaska and Washington.

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Appalachian coal production, 1970-2040

15

million short tons

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AEO2016 Reference

AEO2015 Reference

Northern Appalachia

Central Appalachia

Southern Appalachia

Total Appalachia

AEO2016

AEO2015

Source: Preliminary AEO2016 (ref2016.d020616a), AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015) 

Except for Appalachian total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

History 2014 Projections

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Interior coal production, 1970-2040

16

million short tons

Total Interior

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015

Eastern Interior

Gulf Lignite

History 2014 Projections

Source: Preliminary AEO2016 (ref2016.d020616a), AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015), 

Except for Interior total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Western coal production, 1970-2040

17

million short tons

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015

Other West

History 2014 Projections

Source: Preliminary AEO2016 (ref2016.d020616a), AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015), 

Except for Interior total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Total 

West

WY 

PRB
Western coal production, 1970-2040

18

million short tons

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AEO2016

CPP Base Policy

Other West

History 2014 Projections

Source: Preliminary AEO2016 (ref2016.d020616a), AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015), 

Except for Interior total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Total 

West

WY 

PRB
Average minemouth coal prices by region, 1980-2040

19

2014 dollars per short ton

Appalachia

Interior

West

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AEO2015 

U.S. Average

AEO2016

U.S. Average

2014*

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

Source: Preliminary AEO2016 (ref2016.d020616a), AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015), *2014 is estimated.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
U.S. Coal Exports, 1995-2040

20

million short tons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coking

Steam

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Quarterly Coal Report; 

Projections: Preliminary AEO2016 (NEMS run ref2016.d020616a).

History Projections

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal exports by major supply region, 2010-2040

21

million short tons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2015

AEO2016

Western

Appalachia

Total

Source: 2010-2012: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Distribution Report;

2013-2040: Preliminary AEO2016 (ref2016.d020616a), AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015)

Interior

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

2014
22

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

AEO2015 Reference

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Capacity Added (GW)

Coal Other Nuclear Oil and Gas Wind Solar

AEO2016 Reference

Additions to electricity generating capacity, 2000-2040

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Cumulative coal retirements are up relative to previous CPP 

study, 2015-2040

23

gigawatts

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team Washington, 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

Source: AEO2016 NEMS run ref2016.1.0203a.RAN, AEO2015 Ref2015, rf15_111_all.0306a.RAN

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

AEO2016 Reference AEO2015 Reference 2015 EIA Clean Power Plan Study

Nuclear

Gas CC

O&G Steam

Coal

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
24

Coal demand regions

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
25

Net summer coal-fired generating capacity in the electric power 

sector by coal demand region, 2014 and 2040

gigawatts

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

01NE (CT,MA,ME,NH,RI,VT)

02YP (NY,PA,NJ)

03S1 (WV,MD,DC,DE)

04S2 (VA,NC,SC)

05GF (GA,FL)

06OH (OH)

07EN (IN,IL,MI,WI)

08KT (KY,TN)

09AM (AL,MS)

10C1 (MN,ND,SD)

11C2 (IA,NE,MO,KS)

12WS (TX,LA,OK,AR)

13MT (MT,WY,ID)

14CU (CO,UT,NV)

15ZN (AZ,NM)

16PC (AK,HI,WA,OR,CA)

2014

AEO2015

AEO2016

U.S. Total 

2014: 294

AEO2015: 257

AEO2016: 173

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

Source: Preliminary AEO2016 (ref2016.d020616a), AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015)

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
26

Cumulative net summer coal-fired capacity retirements by coal 

demand region, 2015-2040

gigawatts

0 5 10 15 20

01NE (CT,MA,ME,NH,RI,VT)

02YP (NY,PA,NJ)

03S1 (WV,MD,DC,DE)

04S2 (VA,NC,SC)

05GF (GA,FL)

06OH (OH)

07EN (IN,IL,MI,WI)

08KT (KY,TN)

09AM (AL,MS)

10C1 (MN,ND,SD)

11C2 (IA,NE,MO,KS)

12WS (TX,LA,OK,AR)

13MT (MT,WY,ID)

14CU (CO,UT,NV)

15ZN (AZ,NM)

16PC (AK,HI,WA,OR,CA)

AEO2015

AEO2016

Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

U.S. Total 

AEO2015: 37

AEO2016: 109

Source: Preliminary AEO2016 (NEMS run ref2016.d020616a), AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015).

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
27

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ayaka.jones@eia.gov, (202) 586-0998

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Coal Uranium and Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, February 9, 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.