U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2016

For

AEO2016 Working Group

March 09, 2016 | Washington, DC

By

Trisha Hutchins, Melissa Lynes, John Maples, Mark Schipper, and David Stone

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

Modeling updates in the transportation sector
Updates to the Annual Energy Outlook 2016

• New regional stock model for on-road vehicles

– Reflects Polk annual data for cars, light trucks, Class 2B, Class 3, Class 4-6, and Class 7&8 vehicles through 2014 by 

Census Division (CD)

– Incorporates revisions to fleet and household vehicle allocations

• Revised and updated travel model for LDVs

– Updated historical population, licensed driver and travel data

– Restructured age cohort for licensed driver to align with travel data

– Re-estimated parameters in travel demand equations 

• International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) emission 

control and efficiency standards -- vessels operating in Emission Control Areas (ECA)

– Reflect ship efficiency improvements, shipping demand changes, and fuel price fluctuations

– Incorporates standards impacting technology and fuel choices as compliance pathways; with growth tied to U.S. trade flows 

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 2
Updates to the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (continued)

• Updated historical sales shares for cars and light trucks 

• Updated historical AFV sales for LDVs

– Choice model re-calibrated to reflect historical sales data for FFVs, Diesels, HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs

– Includes behavior adjustments to reflect current issues associated with diesel vehicle sales and expected recovery

• Incorporates latest California ZEV mandates

– Includes Section 177 (CAA) states adopting all California emission regulations: 

• CD1: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont

• CD2: New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania

• CD5: Maryland

• CD9: Oregon 

• Updated CAFE compliance for model years 2009-14

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 3
ZEV mandates

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 4
0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Battery electric vehicle sales 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015

AEO2016

5

History

2014

Projections
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Plug-in hybrid vehicle sales

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015

AEO2016

6

History

2014

Projections
0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Hybrid vehicle sales 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015

AEO2016

7

History

2014

Projections
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Natural gas vehicle sales 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015

AEO2016

8

History

2014

Projections
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Fuel cell vehicle sales 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015

AEO2016

9

History

2014

Projections
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Electric vehicle stocks 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015

AEO2016

10

History

2014

Projections
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

PHEV HEV NGV FCV

AEO2015

AEO2016

millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Other ZEV effected vehicle stocks in 2040 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

11
Fuel economy

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 12
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Car sales as a percent of new light-duty vehicle sales

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015

AEO2016

13

History

2014

Projections
25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

miles per gallon (mpg)

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

New car fuel economy lower in history

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015

History

2014

AEO2016

14

Projections
20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

miles per gallon (mpg)

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

New light-duty truck fuel economy lower in history

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015

History

2014

AEO2016

15

Projections
Vehicle stock update

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 16
100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Gasoline light-duty vehicle stock – cars 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

2014

AEO2016

AEO2015

17

History Projections
80

85

90

95

100

105

110

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Gasoline light-duty vehicle stock – light trucks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

2014

AEO2016

AEO2015

18

History Projections
2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Gasoline commercial light truck vehicle stocks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

2014

AEO2016

AEO2015

19

History Projections
3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Diesel commercial light truck vehicle stocks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

2014

AEO2016

AEO2015

20

History Projections
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Light-medium-duty vehicle (Class 3) stocks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a

AEO2015

AEO2016

21

History

2014

Projections
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Medium-duty vehicle (Class 4-6) stocks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a

AEO2015

AEO2016

22

History

2014

Projections
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Heavy-duty vehicle (Class 7-8) stocks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a

AEO2015

AEO2016

23

History

2014

Projections
Marine vessels

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 24
0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Outside ECA SOx standard

Inside ECAs

Outside ECA 

SOx standard with

2025 extension

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Distillate fuel oil

Residual fuel oil

LNG

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Sources: International Maritime Organization and Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a

MARPOL impacts fuel choice in ECA int’l shipping

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 25

sulfur ppm trillion btu
Transportation energy

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 26
Trends in the Annual Energy Outlook 2016

• Transportation energy consumption declines between 2014 and 2040 (27.6 quadrillion Btu 

to 26.5 quadrillion Btu)

– Energy consumption peaks in 2018 (28.8 quadrillion Btu)

• LDV energy consumption falls from 15.6 quadrillion Btu to 11.8 quadrillion Btu

– Peaks in 2017 (16.2 quadrillion Btu)

• HDV energy consumption increases from 5.4 quadrillion Btu to 6.9 quadrillion Btu

– Higher freight travel demand than increase in efficiency

• Aircraft, maritime, and rail energy consumption similar (+/- 0.1 quadrillion Btu) in 2014 and 

2040.

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 27
Comparison of Annual Energy Outlook 2016 and Annual 

Energy Outlook 2015

• Transportation energy consumption in 2040 in AEO2016 compared to the AEO2015 Oil 

Export Reference case basically unchanged 

– Considerable variation between projections in intervening years due primarily to LDV energy consumption

• LDV energy consumption in 2040 lower in AEO2016

– 2040: -0.4 quadrillion Btu

• HDV energy consumption lower in AEO2016

– 2040: -0.03 quadrillion Btu

• Aircraft energy consumption lower in AEO2016

– 2040: -0.09 quadrillion Btu

• Commercial light truck (CLT), rail, and other energy consumption higher in AEO2016

– 2040: 0.23, 0.15, 0.14 

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 28
2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

billion miles

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

LDV miles traveled increases in the near-term due to lower fuel prices, 

but declines long-term due to economic factors compared to AEO2015

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015

History

2014

AEO2016

29

Projections
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

quadrillion Btu

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Light-duty vehicle energy demand

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a

AEO2015

AEO2016

30

History

2014

Projections
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

quadrillion Btu

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Heavy-duty vehicle energy demand

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a

AEO2015

AEO2016

31

History

2014

Projections
24

26

28

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

quadrillion Btu

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Transportation energy consumption higher in the near term due to 

growth in LDV travel demand

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015

2014

AEO2016

32

History Projections
Discussion/questions

Trisha Hutchins | phone: 202-586-1029 

| email: patricia.hutchins@eia.gov

Melissa Lynes | phone: 202-586-5192 

| email: melissa.lynes@eia.gov

John Maples | phone: 202-586-1757 

| email: john.maples@eia.gov

Mark Schipper | phone: 202-586-1136

| email: mark.schipper@eia.gov

David Stone | phone: 202-586-8851

| email: david.stone@eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 33