U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2013:

Electricity Working Group Meeting 2

October 11, 2012

Electricity Working Group

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis

Office of Energy Analysis

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Key changes from AEO 2012

• Projection extended to 2040

• Representation of Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) after U.S. 

Court of Appeals vacated Cross-State Air Pollution Rule 

(CSAPR)

• Continued to coordinate with Survey Team and Statistics 

Group to:

– Update representation of planned capacity additions

– Update representation of plant retirements

• Refined representation of the Mercury and Air Toxic 

Standards (MATS) to include oil steam units

2

Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
AEO 2013 Relevant Assumptions

3

Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

• MATS compliance (either retrofits or retirements) begins in 

2016 (assuming a one-year reprieve)

• 30 states and the District of Columbia have enforceable 

Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

• Wind production tax credits (PTC) expire at the end of 2012

• Solar investment tax credit (ITC) reverts from 30% to a 

permanent 10% ITC in 2016

• All other renewable technology tax credits expire at the end 

of 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
AEO 2013 Nuclear Power Assumptions

4

Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

• Assume Vogtle, VC Summer, & Watts Bar are completed

– Vogtle Units 3 & 4 (2016 & 2017 online) and Summer Units 2 & 3 (2017 & 2018 

online) each have COL’s

– Watts Bar reports an online date of 2015

• Same handling of retirements and uprates as AEO 2012

– Assume 7.7GW of uprates, including the 1.2 GW reported to EIA

– Assume 7.1GW of retirements, including the 2019 retirement of Oyster Creek 

• No assumed additional retirements after 2035

– Plants that reach their 60th year of operation during this time period completed 

construction after the Three Mile Island incident (i.e. many safety-related 

retrofits have already been completed)

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
SAIC Infrastructure Capital Cost of New 

Technologies

5 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

Overnight Capital Cost (2012$/kW)

AEO 2012 New SAIC % Change

Coal 

Advanced PC w/o CCS $2,941 $2,934 0%

Advanced PC CCS $4734 $4727 0%

IGCC w/o CCS $3,330 $3,784 14%

IGCC CCS $5,531 $6,599 19%

Natural Gas

Conventional NGCC $1,031 $917 -11%

Advanced NGCC $1,037 $1,023 -1%

Advanced NGCC with CCS $2,131 $2,095 -2%

Conventional CT $1,007 $973 -3%

Advanced CT $689 $676 -2%

Nuclear

Nuclear $5,518 $5,525 0%

Renewables

Biomass $3,991 $4,114 3%

MSW - Landfill Gas $8,515 $8,312 -2%

Wind $2,520 $2,214 -12%

Wind Offshore $6,179 $6,230 1%

Solar Thermal $4,852 $5,067 4%

Photovoltaic $4,918 $3,873 -21%

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Preliminary Run Results

based on runs of 10/04/2012

6 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Summary Results

7 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

• Demand slightly lower throughout the forecast, although the 

trend is the same

• Higher coal prices than AEO 2012, while natural gas prices 

are slightly lower

• Overall coal plant retirements roughly the same (more 

reported retirements)

• Increasing use of natural gas for electric generation

• Capacity additions continue to be dominated by natural gas 

and renewable technologies

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Annual Rate of Growth Continues to Slow

8

percent growth (3-year rolling average)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Projections

History 2012

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, (preliminary), Annual Energy Review, 2013

Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Annual Growth

1950s 9.8%

1960s 7.3%

1970s 4.7%

1980s 2.9%

1990s 2.4%

2000-2011 0.9%

2011-2040 0.8%
Total Electricity Sales

9 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2013 

Projection AEO 2012 History

Billion kWh

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary)

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Power Sector Fuel Prices

10 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coal AEO 2013 Coal AEO 2012

Natural Gas AEO 2013 Natural Gas AEO 2012

History Projection

2011$/MMBtu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Coal Generation

11 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2013

AEO 2012

Billion kWh

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case

History Projection

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Generation Shares by Fuel Source for 2008, 

2011, 2035, and 2040

12 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

2008 2011

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Renewable

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case

2035 AEO2012 

Reference Case

2035 AEO2013 

Reference Case

2040, AEO2013 

Reference Case

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Coal Plant Retirements

• 27.5 GW’s of retirements reported to EIA through 2021

• Additional 22 GW’s of retirements through the NEMS model

• Coal retirements and natural gas use are sensitive to several 

key factors, particularly electricity demand, natural gas prices 

and coal prices, and environmental regulations

• Slightly higher amount of capacity retired by 2035 than in 

AEO 2012

Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012 13

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Coal Plant Retirements through 2035

14 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

27

11

22

36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

AEO 2013 AEO 2012

Retired by NEMS

Reported to EIA

Gigawatts

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Coal Plant Retirements

15 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2012 AEO 2013

Gigawatts

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Compliance Actions in the First Year of MATS Implementation

16 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

21

30

23 6

49 58

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

AEO 2013 AEO 2012

DSI retrofits

Retirements

FGD installations

Gigawatts

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Nuclear Generation

17 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

600

800

1000

1200

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2013

AEO 2012

History Projection

Billion kWh

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Power Sector Fuel Prices

18 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coal AEO 2013 Coal AEO 2012

Natural Gas AEO 2013 Natural Gas AEO 2012

History Projection

2011$/MMBtu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Natural Gas Generation

19 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2013

AEO 2012

Implementation of MATS

Billion kWh

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case

History

Projection

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Renewable Generation

20 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2013

AEO 2012

Billion kWh

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case

History Projection

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Renewable Generation Breakdown

21 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

299 297 312

56 50 47

136 124 146

251

194 194

110

69 44

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

AEO 2013 (2040) AEO 2013 (2035) AEO 2012 (2035)

Hydro Geothermal Biomass Wind Solar

Billion kWh

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Comparison of Capacity Additions through 2035 for AEO 2012 

and AEO 2013

22 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables

AEO 2013 (2035)

AEO 2012 (2035)

Gigawatts

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case

More retirements of 

oil-gas steam units 

leads to greater 

need for capacity

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Cumulative Capacity Additions by Fuel Type, AEO2013 

Reference Case

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 Renewable Sources

 Nuclear Power

 Natural Gas

 Coal

Gigawatts

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary)

23

Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Cumulative electricity generating capacity additions, 

2012-2035 and 2012-2040

24

Gigawatts

9 8 12

214

167 131

11

6

9

106

68

59

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

AEO2013: 2012-2040 AEO2013: 2012-2035 AEO2012: 2012-2035

Coal Natural Gas/Oil Nuclear Renewables/Other

249

211

340

Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
CO2 Emissions

25 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2013

AEO 2012

Million metric tons

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case

Historical Projection

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Contacts

• J. Alan Beamon, Director, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, 

and Renewables Analysis; (202) 586-2025; 

joseph.beamon@eia.gov

• Jim Diefenderfer, Team Leader, Electricity Analysis Team, 

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis; 

(202) 586-2432; jim.diefenderfer@eia.gov

• Electricity Analysis Team Members:

– Jeff Jones (202) 586-2038 Mike Leff (202) 586-1297

– Laura Martin (202) 586-1494 Marie Rinkoski Spangler (202) 586-2446

– Lori Aniti (202) 586-2867 Carrie Milton (202) 586-1130

26 Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012
For more information

27

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

EIA Information Center

email: InfoCtr@eia.gov

Electricity Working Group

October 11, 2012