U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Macro Industrial Working Group (MIWG)

Industrial Team: Kelly Perl, Team Leader; Peter Gross, Susan Hicks, Paul 

Otis, and Mark Schipper (OECEA)

July 30, 2013 | Washington, DC

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Industrial team plans for AEO2014
Overview -- AEO2014

• Process flow status & updates

• Other model updates

• Major data updates

• CHP updates 

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Industrial Team

Washington DC, July 30, 2013 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
 Process flow models

• General:

– Replace energy consumption based on engineering judgment with specific 

technology or equipment choice e.g. anode production for primary aluminum

– Also can choose technology diffusion 

– Technologies are primarily based on CIMS data from DOE’s Pacific Northwest 

National Laboratory 

• Completed by AEO2013

– Cement & Lime

– Aluminum

• Completion for AEO2014

– Glass (defaulted)

– Food (not a process flow model; revise on more detailed shipments data)

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Industrial Team 

Washington DC, July 30, 2013 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
 Glass characteristics

• Glass types used in process flow model

– Flat glass

– Container glass

– Pressed & blown glass

– Glass fiber

– Note: glass made from purchased glass still uses TPC approach

• Process steps: preparation, furnace, form & finish, tempering 

(flat glass only)

• Furnace types include conventional, electric boost, & oxygen 

fueled

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Industrial Team 

Washington DC, July 30, 2013 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
 Other planned model updates

• Cement multi-channel burner addition to CIMS (defaulted) 

adds flexibility for fuel mix of mono-channel burners for later 

AEOs and contributes to AEO2014 efficiency side cases.

• Efficiency case for cement

– Multi-channel burners considered state-of-the-art in cement industry

• Allow significant amounts of secondary fuels – i.e., achieve high or higher 

levels of alternative solid fuels (ASF) – e.g., tires, plastics, wood, waste 

• Fuel mix for individual kilns is unavailable but IDM presumes a 12 percent 

share of ASF in dry process kilns; wet process is likely higher

– More rapid penetration of energy efficient grinding; affects electricity

• Efficiency case for aluminum

5

Industrial Team 

Washington DC, July 30, 2013 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
 Cement burner technology update

6

Industrial Team Washington DC, July 

30, 2013 

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Coal

Petroleum Coke

Net Electricity

Other

Natural Gas

Waste Oils/Tars

Distillate Fuel Oil

Coal Coke

Residual Fuel Oil

Waste Gas

Wood Chips

LPG and HGL

Cement industry 

reports 246 trillion Btu 

consumed in 2010.

Fuel share in the cement industry

percent

AEO2013: 6 mono-channel burner technologies

AEO2014: Adds a multi-channel burner technology

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, MECS2010.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
 Major data updates

• Quadrennial MECS update to 2010

• New nonmanufacturing data approach 

– Uses Census and USDA data to derive usage data from expenditures

– Improves estimation of nonmanufacturing energy use for individual tables 

instead of relying on SEDS – MECS; 

• construction use of natural gas had been overestimated 

• Construction expenditures were for “Natural gas OR manufactured gas” 

– Will use SEDS – MECS for benchmarked figures in Table 6, main industrial 

table, of the AEO

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Industrial Team Washington DC, July 

30, 2013 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
MECS 2010 v. MECS 2006

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Industrial Team Washington DC, July 

30, 2013 

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2006

2010

Energy use in quadrillion btu

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
 Combined Heat and Power (CHP)

• Differentiation for major CHP-using industries: bulk 

chemicals, paper, food, iron & steel (refining modeled in 

LFMM)

– Allow variation in utilization, risk factor, penetration rate for four major CHP 

industries allows to run mini side cases

– Big 4 industries constitute more that 75% of IDM CHP in all AEO2013 years

– All other industries undifferentiated

• Regional differentiation

• Data updates

– Update industrial CHP based on EIA’s historical data

– Will update regional CHP scorecards when ACEEE data becomes available

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Industrial Team 

Washington DC, July 30, 2013 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Thank you for your attention!

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Industrial Team 

Washington DC, July 30, 2013 

Macro Team:

Kay Smith (202) 586-1132 | kay.smith@eia.gov

Vipin Arora (202) 586-1048 | vipin.arora@eia.gov

Russell Tarver (202) 586-3991 | russell.tarver@eia.gov

Elizabeth Sendich (202) 586-7145 | elizabeth.sendich@eia.gov

Industrial Team: EIA-OECEAIndustrialTeam@eia.gov

Kelly Perl (202) 586-1743

Peter Gross (202) 586-8822

Susan Hicks (202) 586-4388

Paul Otis (202) 586-2306

Mark Schipper (OECEA) (202) 586-1136

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE