July 31, 2013

MEMORANDUM FOR: JOHN CONTI

ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR FOR ENERGY 

ANALYSIS

 PAUL HOLTBERG 

TEAM LEADER

ANALYSIS INTEGRATION TEAM

JIM TURNURE

DIRECTOR

OFFICE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND EFFICIENCY 

ANALYSIS

FROM: TRANSPORTATION CONSUMPTION & EFFICIENCY

ANALYSIS TEAM

SUBJECT: First AEO2014 Transportation Working Group Meeting Summary 

(presented on 07-23-2013)

Attendees: Shirley Neff (EIA/AO)

Jim Turnure (EIA/OECEA)

Jade Jenkins (EIA/OECEA)

Ken Katz (DOT/NHTSA)

Pete Whitman (DOE/PI)

Tien Nguyen (DOE/EERE)

Therese Langer (ACEEE)

Jim Kliesch (Honda)

Kaoru Horie (Honda)

Attending by Phone: Walter Gazda (DOT/VOLPE)

Kevin Green (DOT/VOLPE)

John VanSchalkwyk (DOT/VOLPE)

Don Pickrell (DOT/VOLPE)

Ryan Keefe (DOT/VOLPE)

David Hunter (EPRI)

Anant Vyas (ANL)

Tiffany Roberts (CA-LAO)

Jesse Prentice-Dunn (Sierra Club)

Jake Ward (DOE/EERE)

Dennis Smith (DOE/EERE)

Ken Howden (DOE/EERE)

Nico Kydes (OnLocation)
Sandy Sanders (OnLocation)

Frances Wood (OnLocation)

Luke Tonachel (NRDC)

EPA/OTAQ (participants did not identify themselves by name)

Presenters: John Maples

Nick Chase

Trisha Hutchins

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

The working group presentation provided a discussion of the projects underway and anticipated 

for AEO 2014. An overview of the projects discussed is included in the presentation materials 

provided as a separate attachment.

Specific discussion/questions:

1. Will the transportation model be using the coal module information for the coal tonmiles, as was the previous methodology?

a. We have not confirmed yet whether it will be, although there is a possibility. We 

are currently testing a new methodology and the old method.

2. What are our assumptions for the increase in marine efficiency in our projections? Is it 

based on technology improvements?

a. The marine mode efficiency improvements are projected at 1⁄2 the historic rate of 

improvement.

3. How are we planning to use the Polk data, particularly in relation to the HD National 

Program?

a. We have just started looking at the Polk data, but the hope is to use the 

disaggregation of data to help inform the LDV shares, fuel efficiency, individual 

stock numbers, as well as potential technology. The HDV information is more 

limited than the LDV, but we are hoping to inform HDV model year, vehicle type 

and VMT aspects using the Polk data.

4. What does the measure “E85 market share” represent on the Consumer choice for E85 

graph on slide 11?

a. This represents the percent of time a flex-fuel vehicle operates on E85 annually, 

on a national level. The model will incorporate individual curves for each census 

division. The graphic in slide 11 represents the national aggregate. The point 

above zero at lower availability represents fleet usage of E85.

5. How does the new consumer choice for E85 account for various fuel costs? What does 

the fuel availability measure represent?

a. We have consumer preference parameters specific to census division. Market 

penetration is dependent on both fuel price and fuel availability.
b. The E85 fuel availability represents the number of stations that offer E85. 

Although the share of pumps would be a better representation of availability, we 

don’t have information at that level to use in the model.

c. It was also noted that showing regional behavior of E85 consumer choice would 

be of interest for our second working group for AEO 2014.

6. EIA mentioned other workshops that have been organized or presented at by EIA. These 

include: Consumer Market Acceptance of EVs in January, Biofuels Workshop in April, 

and Behavioral Economics in July. Presentation materials and summary memos are 

made available on the EIA website. There are also future workshops and presentations 

that EIA will organize or host, and they can be found on the EIA website.

7. What does EIA assume for battery vehicle state-of-charge/depth of discharge?

a. For electric vehicles, an 80% max is assumed, and this stays constant throughout 

the projection period. For plug-in electric vehicles, DOD starts at 65%, and 

reaches 70% in 2020. It is then held constant throughout the remainder of the 

projection period.

8. Does EIA have any information on the Vehicle Inventory Use Survey and whether a new 

survey will be conducted in the near future?

a. EIA has communicated with the American Statistical Association about the 

survey, but has not heard any news.

9. Discussion initiated regarding the age and travel issue. Opinions that the travel demand 

by age cohort may bounce back with time was provided. It was also noted that this 

phenomena is population derived and depends on the number of people driving as well as 

the individual VMT. Urban shift may play a part, although the extent to which is 

unknown.