U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Preliminary Reference Case Results for

Natural Gas

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Analysis

Administrator Briefing

October 2nd, 2012 | Washington, DC

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2013P uses ref2013.d100312b

AEO2012 uses ref2012.d020112c
Changes for AEO2013

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 2

• Revised shale & tight play resources (EURs, type curves)

• Updated classification of shale gas, tight gas, & tight oil 

reservoirs

• Updated offshore announced discoveries

• Updated assumptions for Canada 

• Estimated world natural gas prices in order to endogenously 

model LNG exports

• Updated methodology for calculating the Henry Hub price

• Updated historical data and related parameters
Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S. 

technically recoverable natural gas resources

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 3

trillion cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Unproved shale gas

& coalbed methane

Unproved Carbonate 

and Sandstone gas

(including Alaska*)

Proved reserves

(all types & locations)

AEO Edition
AEO2013 shale plays of interest (Tcf)

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 4

Shale Formation AEO2013 AEO2012 USGS

Unproved shale gas resources Undiscovered

 Eagle Ford 55 50 50

 Marcellus 148 141 84

 Haynesville 75 66 66

 Fayetteville 16 13 13

 Woodford 34 24 26

 Utica 38 16 38*

* USGS assessment released September 27, 2012.

Note: These numbers are dry. In general EIA natural gas and oil resource tables do not include natural gas plant 

liquids, but do include condensates. 
Natural gas consumption, production, and imports, 1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 5

trillion cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

Consumption

Production

AEO2013P

AEO2012

Net Imports 

Net Exports 
Net U.S. imports by source, 1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 6

trillion cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

Canada

LNG

Mexico

AEO2012

AEO2013P
LNG Exports Reference Case, 2015-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 7

billion cubic feet per day

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Western 

Canada

Alaska

Gulf

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12
LNG Exports High Price Case, 2015-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels

Analysis Working Group Natural Gas 

Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results 

are subject to change 8

billion cubic feet per day

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

W.Canada

Alaska

S.Atlantic

Gulf
Henry Hub and National Average Price, 1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 9

2011 dollars per million Btu

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

AEO2013P

AEO2012 Henry 

Hub

Lower-48

Average

Wellhead/

Spot

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12
Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Prices, 1995-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 10

2011 dollars per million Btu

* CERA: August 2012, IHS CERA North American Natural Gas Outlook Data Tables

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

AEO2013P

AEO2012

CERA HH price*

NYMEX future gas price

as of 9/19/2012

STEO - 9/2012
Ratio of low-sulfur light crude oil prices to natural gas prices on 

an energy-equivalent basis, 1995-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 11

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

High Price

Reference

Low Price

Nymex future oil-gas price ratio

as of 9/19/2012
Natural Gas End-Use Prices by Sector, 1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 12

2011 dollars per thousand cubic feet

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

AEO2013P

AEO2012 Transportation

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Electric Power

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12
Natural gas consumption by sector, 1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 13

trillion cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

Industrial*

Electric Power

Residential

Commercial

Transportation**

* Includes lease and plant fuel, and natural gas-to-liquids heat, power, and production

** Includes pipeline fuel

AEO2013P

AEO2012
Shale gas production growth and leads to net exports

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 14

trillion cubic feet

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

AEO2012 History Projections

Alaska

Shale gas

Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Non-associated onshore

Non-associated offshore

Associated with oil
Shale gas production growth and leads to net exports

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 15

trillion cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections AEO2013P

Alaska

Shale gas

Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Non-associated onshore

Non-associated offshore

Associated with oil
Lower 48 conventional non-associated natural gas production,

1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 16

trillion cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

Conventional 

Onshore

Offshore

AEO2013P

AEO2012
Lower 48 conventional non-associated natural gas production,

1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 17

trillion cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

Shale Gas

Tight Gas

Coalbed Methane

AEO2013P

AEO2012
Shale gas production by play

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 18

trillion cubic feet

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

 Barnett Haynesville/Bossier Fayetteville

 Woodford Eagle Ford Antrim

 Marcellus
Natural gas wells drilled versus natural gas Henry Hub price

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 19

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

natural gas Henry Hub price

2011$/MMBtu natural gas wells drilled

Note: Prior to 1990, wellhead natural gas price data are used.

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

wells

price

History Projections
Natural Gas Plant Liquid Production, 2000-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 20

Million barrels per day

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/03/12

History Projections

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013P

AEO2012
Additional AEO2013 cases

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 21

• High/Low World Oil Price

• High/Low Macroeconomic Growth

• High/Low Resources

• TAPS Cases

• High/Low Oil and Gas Technology

• High/Low LNG Exports
For more information

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 22

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and frequently asked questions.
Region Basin Play AEO2013P AEO2012

Northeast Appalachian Marcellus 148,404 140,567

Devonian - Big Sandy Central 5,232 6,020

Devonian - Greater Siltstone 8,620 8,645

Devonian - Low Thermal Maturity 13,454 13,592

Utica 38,152 15,712

Illinois Northwestern Ohio 2,641 2,643

New Albany 10,909 10,904

Michigan Antrim 12,585 18,411

Gulf Coast TX-LA-MS Salt Haynesville 74,660 65,860

Western Gulf Coast Eagle Ford 55,046 50,219

Pearsall 8,782 8,817

Black Warrior Floyd-Neal/Conasauga 4,922 4,805

Midcontinent Arkoma Fayetteville – Central 11,075 9,070

Fayetteville – West 4,515 4,170

Woodford – Western Arkoma 15,043 10,678

Caney 1,132 1,135

Chattanooga 1,620 1,613

Anadarko Woodford - Central 19,168 10,981

Southwestern OK Woodford -- 2,189

Southwest Ft. Worth Barnett 28,795 18,651

Permian Barnett-Woodford 28,259 27,470

Rocky 

Mountain

Greater Green River Hilliard-Baxter-Mancos 13,302 13,285

San Juan Lewis 9,778 9,760

Uinta Mancos 2,743 10,873

Williston Gammon 3,491 3,491

trillion cubic feet

Lower 48 unproved shale gas resources

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Natural Gas Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 23