WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

November 6, 2018

MEMORANDUM FOR: Ian Mead

Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis

FROM: Jim Turnure 

Director, Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

SUBJECT: Summary of AEO2019 Buildings Working Group 2 held on October 4, 2018

This memorandum provides an overview of the presentation given at the second Annual Energy Outlook

2019 (AEO2019) Buildings Working Group meeting and summarizes the discussion. The meeting covered

preliminary AEO2019 results, including a comparison with AEO2018 results for major buildings 

indicators and for areas with model updates. In addition, presenters highlighted differences as a result 

of the update to the 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). The presentation for this 

meeting is available in a separate document.

Preliminary AEO2019 Results

Preliminary AEO2019 results for residential and commercial energy consumption by fuel show electricity 

as the fastest growing energy source for buildings use. Residential use of all fossil fuels declines slightly 

during the projection period while commercial natural gas use continues to show modest growth.

Comparison with AEO2018

End-use fuel prices are generally lower in preliminary AEO2019 results than in AEO2018 projections, 

especially electricity prices. Preliminary residential prices are about 10% lower and commercial 

electricity prices are about 8% lower on average than projected in AEO2018 from 2020 through 2050. 

Commercial floorspace growth in preliminary AEO2019 results is similar to AEO2018 projections. The 

number of residential households is projected to grow more slowly than in AEO2018, although the RECS 

update shows more households in 2015 than had been projected in AEO2018 based on the previous 

2009 RECS and housing starts. 

The differences in sector drivers, combined with updated sector and technology characteristics, lead to 

faster growth in residential electricity use but slower growth in residential natural gas use relative to 

AEO2018. Commercial sector electricity and natural gas use show similar growth to that seen in 

AEO2018 with differences in sector drivers offsetting the effects of updated district service and end-use 

technology characteristics.
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

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The residential solar photovoltaic (PV) hurdle models used in projecting PV adoption have been updated 

to include data from 40 states in AEO2019, up from the 5 states used in AEO2018. The expanded data 

set and lower electricity prices result in slower growth in installed capacity relative to AEO2018. 

Preliminary AEO2019 results project an increase in commercial PV adoption in the near term relative to 

AEO2018 based on lower projected installed costs.

RECS and residential technology updates

In addition to the change in residential household levels indicated above, macroeconomic housing start 

trends have been updated for AEO2019. In addition, average household tenure—the amount of time a 

consumer lives in a home—was increased from seven to nine years. Additional historical data may allow 

for future breakout of tenure by housing type.

EIA staff highlighted changes in residential end-use consumption from AEO2018 to AEO2019 to depict 

the effects of updated major end-use equipment technology cost and efficiency projections as well as 

base-year inputs developed from 2015 RECS data. The changes affected all end uses. Residential 

refrigeration and freezing, for example, reflect an increased number of efficiency options, as well as 

updated shares by appliance configuration. Clothes washers were also expanded to reflect the relative 

shares of top- versus front-loading equipment. 

Discussion

The discussion that followed the presentation focused on updates to end-use technology cost and 

performance assumptions and on the update to 2015 RECS estimates.

End-Use Technology 

A participant asked whether the projected decline in commercial sector air-source heat pump costs was 

only based on time or on increased adoption. EIA staff clarified that NREL projections included costs in 

selected years. EIA calculated a compound annual growth rate and applied that to the costs in the 

contractor report that Navigant completed for EIA.

Participants were also interested in what causes the change from AEO2018 in residential energy 

consumption for lighting. EIA staff responded that AEO2019 projections include a more rapid switch to 

LED lighting based on recent historical shipments, an expansion of the definition of what is covered in 

the lighting standards included in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and energy 

efficiency rebates. EIA staff also verified that AEO2019 assumed subsidies for residential LED lighting end 

in 2020. 

2015 RECS

A participant inquired about the change in the clothes washer consumption pattern. Buildings team staff 

pointed to the change in modeling to include both top- and front-loading equipment, the latter of which 

is increasing in market share and uses more motor energy than the former.

A participant asked if dishwasher consumption includes heating energy as well as motor energy. EIA 

staff mentioned that appliances typically intake heated water, but they acknowledged that additional 

heating may depend on the dishwasher model and usage. RECS staff pointed out that previous iterations 

of RECS had not included any published dishwasher consumption estimates. They also noted that 13% of 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

homes that have dishwashers installed do not use them, and 25% of homes don’t have or don’t use 

dishwashers.

Attendees

Guests (in person) Affiliation

John Agan DOE 

Ben King DOE 

Jack Mayernik NREL

Guests (WebEx/phone) Affiliation

Austin Brown UC Davis

Torrey Beek DC Government

Matthew Cleaver Leidos

Mike Russo Synapse 

Elizabeth Titus Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnership

David White Synapse

EIA Attendees (in person)

Chip Berry

David Daniels

Greg Lawson

Bill McNary

Ian Mead

Eileen O’Brien

Manussawee Sukunta

Team Members:

Erin Boedecker

Meera Fickling

Behjat Hojjati

Kevin Jarzomski

EIA Attendees (WebEx/phone)

Danni Mayclin