U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Assumptions for Annual Energy Outlook 2016: 

Liquid Fuels Markets Working Group

AEO2016 Liquid Fuels Markets Working Group Meeting

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas & Biofuels Analysis

November 19, 2015 | Washington, DC

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Discussion topics

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, November 19, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 2

• Assumptions/changes for AEO2016 – petroleum

– Crude exports

– Product import and export curves (international)

– Logistics

– CD 9 fuel oil price to electric utility

– Benchmarking

• Assumptions/changes for AEO2016 – biofuels/non-petroleum

– E-15 penetration

– RFS

– LCFS

– Biofuel technologies – expected capacities and investment costs

– BTL/CTL/GTL investment costs
AEO2016 petroleum assumptions/changes

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, November 19, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 3

• Crude exports

– Any crude type is allowed to be exported to Canada

– Only 50+ API crude (Condensate) is allowed to be exported (other than to Canada)

– 27-35 API crude is allowed to be exported from Alaska

– Light crude export/trade with Mexico is modeled implicitly

• (IEM) Product import and export cost curves expanded to 14 steps for all products

• (IEM) Crude supply curves for Rest Of World respond to net U.S. 

imports of both crude and product

• Transport logistics

– Keystone XL pipeline will not be represented in network

– Pipeline, rail, and vessel capacity and tariffs are under review
AEO2016 petroleum assumptions/changes

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, November 19, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 4

• Improved methodology for pricing fuel oil to electric utilities in 

Census Division (CD) 9

– CD-9 will be W/C HFO plus a Hawaiian related markup for Hawaiian electric generation

• Benchmarking

– Plans to improve benchmarking of product prices

– Representation of fuel use at ethanol plants and refinery will be improved
AEO2016 biofuel/non-petroleum assumptions

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, November 19, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 5

• Capital investment in liquid technologies will be reviewed and 

updated as needed

– Biofuel technologies: modify nameplate capacity, overnight capital costs

– Revisit biobutanol representation

– xTL: update costs and key parameters

• E-15 penetration: Will review and update assumptions

• RFS

– 2014-15-16 rule will likely be released in November 2015

– Will continue to exclude cellulosic-compliant renewable fuel oil and biogas in 

AEO2016

• California LCFS: Investigating representation of new provisions
Contacts

6

John Powell: john.powell@eia.gov

Mindi Farber-DeAnda: mindi.farber-deanda@eia.gov

Beth May: elizabeth.may@eia.gov

Adrian Geagla: adrian.geagla@eia.gov

Next Working Group Meeting

Tentatively planned for March 2016.

Will present preliminary AEO2016 results.

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, November 19, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
For more information

7 Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, November 19, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

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