June 2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

May 25, 2021

MEMORANDUM FOR: Angelina LaRose

Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis

FROM: Jim Diefenderfer

Director, Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling

SUBJECT: Summary of AEO2022 Buildings Working Group held on

May 25, 2021

This memorandum summarizes the presentation we gave at the first Annual Energy Outlook 2022

(AEO2022) Buildings Working Group meeting and the discussion that followed. The presentation first 

recapped the AEO2021 results and then highlighted the major modeling and data updates planned for 

AEO2022. The presentation for this meeting is available in a separate document.

Debrief of AEO2021 results

We began the meeting with a reminder of how we incorporated COVID-19 pandemic effects into 

AEO2021, and then we gave a high-level overview and debrief of AEO2021 results. We reiterated how

the residential and commercial characterization of end-use electricity consumption and onsite 

distributed generation for own use at the building site changed for AEO2021. We also described a recent 

update that enables our models to account for commercial sensors and controls, updated commercial 

building codes, and revised residential housing decay (or demolition) rates. In addition, AEO2021

incorporated solar photovoltaic cost estimates based on the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s 

latest Annual Technology Baseline. Finally, we discussed the updated representation of LED lighting

costs based on recent bulb costs and the elimination of the 2020 backstop lighting standard, as 

previously set by the Energy Independence and Security Act 2007 (EISA2007). 

We then presented AEO2021 Reference case data for residential and commercial sector energy 

consumption. In the residential sector, we project electricity consumption to grow while natural gas and 

petroleum consumption decrease. In the commercial sector, electricity consumption grows faster than 

natural gas consumption. Overall, buildings consumption of natural gas, petroleum liquids, and other 

fuels decreases from 2020 to 2050. In contrast, AEO2020 projected that commercial sector electricity 
June 2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

and natural gas consumption would increase through 2050, whereas petroleum liquids and other fuels 

would remain flat. 

AEO2022 model updates, policy updates, and historical updates

We discussed various planned updates for AEO2022. We highlighted a new contractor report that 

updates and adds new characterizations for residential and commercial miscellaneous electric loads 

(MELs). This new information continues work from past MELs reports created for EIA and the U.S. 

Department of Energy. We showed how end-use consumption is calculated in the report—including an 

example of how television consumption projections have changed between the previous report and 

current report—and pointed out the end uses that we will model for the first time this coming cycle.

Building on our analysis for AEO2021, we will endogenously calculate housing decay rates that we had 

analyzed exogenously for the previous report. This change will allow interactions that are more dynamic

across our side cases, where macroeconomic activity varies.

We discussed how we are incorporating data from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s latest 

Distributed Solar Data Update (formerly Tracking the Sun).

We discussed how we will address new federal rulemakings that may be enacted before the end of our 

modeling season. For example, we will consider any new federal energy efficiency standards or ENERGY 

STAR specifications, such as new specifications announced for air-source heat pumps and heat pump 

water heaters. AEO2022 will also include revised federal energy efficiency rebates and renewables tax 

credits extended by the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021, that passed late in 2020.

We highlighted several notable historical updates that we complete for each AEO, for example:

• Updating sectoral energy consumption by fuel

• Refining historical and projected impacts of utility energy efficiency incentives

• Incorporating new weather data (and forecasts) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration (NOAA)

• Calibrating residential space heating equipment shares and average residential square footage 

to U.S. Census Bureau data

Other items

In the medium and long term, we are planning to:

• Update the characterization of residential and commercial lighting, commercial refrigeration, 

and commercial ventilation technologies

• Model thermal and battery storage technologies in buildings

• Identify ways we can use the residential and commercial models to analyze buildings-related 

electrification.

We reminded attendees about our online AEO data table browser and API tools. Several attendees 

commented that they use those tools regularly and appreciate easy access to our data.
June 2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

We highlighted a list of buildings-related reports, including recently updated reports on modeling

distributed generation in the buildings sector and price elasticities for energy use in buildings. We also 

shared a recent Today in Energy article that profiled forecasts of residential, commercial, and industrial 

electricity sales in the Summer 2021 Electricity Industry Outlook, a supplement to the Short-Term Energy 

Outlook. 

Finally, we mentioned that we are hiring new employees and indicated that further information is 

available on our careers web page.

Discussion

A participant asked whether we use NREL’s Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) to 

project distributed generation. We explained that we do not use dGen to develop AEO projections, but 

we are aware of model developments. We provided a link to a recently completed report that clarifies

key differences between EIA’s residential and commercial modeling systems.

A participant asked about how upcoming model updates address growing consumption among home 

electronics and commercial data center equipment. We explained what technologies we will include in 

the AEO2022 MELs update and shared a link to the recently published MELs report that includes

information about the presence of equipment in residential and commercial buildings and projected 

penetration across the U.S. building stock over time. We also clarified that the report disaggregates

specific MELs at a finer resolution than before to capture differences in the way people use and charge 

tablets as compared to smart phones, for example.

To address a question about calculating net building energy consumption, we explained how changes to 

distributed generation reporting make it easier to compare distributed generation for use at the building 

site and purchased electricity projections in each sector to total electricity consumption projections.

In response to a question about whether the MELs update would affect load shapes, we clarified that 

the buildings models are annual models, and therefore, we do not incorporate assumptions about load 

shapes into our electricity consumption projections.

A participant asked for more detail on our residential building code assumptions. We explained that we 

model consumer adoption of different combinations of building shell and space heating and cooling 

equipment, each of which meets various building codes and ENERGY STAR specifications.

We clarified that we do not pass the utility bill savings attributed to energy efficiency programs back to 

the macro module or otherwise reincorporate them into baseline GDP assumptions. However, the 

presence of and participation in energy efficiency programs can reduce demand for fuels, which in turn 

affects fuel prices.

A participant asked whether we incorporate updated standards, such as updates to minimum seasonal 

energy efficiency ratios (SEER). We clarified that the SEER2 standards that have been released and that

will go into effect in 2023 are already incorporated into NEMS. We also followed up after the meeting to 

further discuss incorporating SEER2 standards into our projections.
June 2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

A participant asked about whether our projections account for electric vehicle (EV) charging loads in the

building sector and whether we publish data about the number of buildings with EV charging 

equipment. We referred the participant to the Transportation Energy Efficiency and Consumption 

Analysis group, which models vehicle electricity consumption in the transportation sector. We also 

explained that technology shares are based on Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey and 

Residential Energy Consumption Survey results and that future publications may contain this 

information.

We described the eight core side cases that we will release as part of the AEO2022 and explained that 

we have not determined which additional side cases we will develop. A participant asked whether we

will model a scenario exploring decarbonization. We explained that we are currently in the process of 

evaluating the resources we would require to develop a deep decarbonization scenario.

A participant asked for more information about NOAA population-weighted weather data to be released 

this fall. We followed up after the meeting and provided NOAA contact information to the participant by

email. Another participant asked how changing weather normals relate to assumptions about climate 

change. We clarified that the changing weather normals would only affect our projections to the extent 

they are included in NOAA’s 15-month forecast. Beyond the 15-month forecast, we use a trend based on 

the past 30 years of actual historical data to develop state-level projections for population-weighted 

heating and cooling degree days, which are then aggregated to the census division level. 

After the event, a participant asked whether we are considering shifting to a whole-building, integrated 

approach to modeling energy consumption. We explained how the Residential Demand Module models 

consumer choice among various combinations of building shell and space heating and cooling 

technologies. We described other iterative steps we have taken in this direction but explained that we 

will not substantially alter our approach to modeling energy consumption and efficiency for buildings in 

the near term.
June 2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Attendees

Name Affiliation

John Agan U.S. Department of Energy

Justin Baca Solar Energy Industries Association

Marilyn Brown Georgia Tech

Matthew Cleaver Leidos, Inc.

Michael Freels Oregon Department of Energy

Adam Guzzo U.S. Department of Energy

Chioke Harris National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Andrew Held DC Department of Energy and Environment

Bob Hershey Robert L. Hershey, P.E.

Ian Hoffman Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Andrew King California Air Resources Board

Stephanie Kruse Oregon Department of Energy

Jared Langevin Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Eric Mackres World Resources Institute

Cara Marcy U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Jack Mayernik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Glen Salas Simonson Management Services

Aven Satre-Meloy Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Derek Schroeder U.S. Department of Energy

Rodney Sobin National Association of State Energy Officials

Andy Winslow Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships

Frances Wood OnLocation, Inc.

EIA staff attendees

Tuncay Alparslan

Stacy Angel

Erin Boedecker

Francisco Cifuentes Villarroel

Jim Diefenderfer

Kevin Jarzomski

Ari Kahan

Mala Kline

Angelina LaRose

Greg Lawson

Mary Lewis

Perry Lindstrom

Ruey-Pyng Lu

Laura Martin

William McNary

Joelle Michaels

Kyle Morley

Kevin Nakolan

April Patel

Kelly Perl

Andri Rizhakov

Nicholas Skarzynski

Manussawee Sukunta

Courtney Sourmehi