U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2017

For

AEO2017 Transportation Working Group

August 31, 2016 | Washington, DC

By

Melissa Lynes, John Maples, Mark Schipper, and David Stone

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

Modeling updates in the transportation sector
Updates to the Annual Energy Outlook 2017 • Transportation demand model highlights 

– 10-year extension of last-year projection, AEO2016 is 2040 and AEO2017 is 2050

– Battery costs for electric vehicles 

– Phase 2 greenhouse gas and fuel efficiency standards for medium- and heavy-duty engines and vehicles

– Freight travel updates

– Air travel updates

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Light-duty vehicle (LDV) submodule

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Light-duty vehicle mandates and data updates

• Update CAFE compliance and vehicle attributes for model years 2010-14

• Update light-duty AFV historical sales and attributes

– Choice model re-calibrated to reflect historical sales data for FFVs, Diesels, HEVs, PHEVs, HFCs, and EVs

– Includes behavior adjustments to reflect current issues associated with diesel vehicle sales

– Increased EV range to reflect new models

• Incorporate latest California ZEV mandates

– Includes Section 177 (CAA) states adopting all California emission regulations: 

• CD1: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont

• CD2: New Jersey, New York

• CD5: Maryland

• CD9: Oregon 

• Update historical lithium-ion battery costs and cost projection sub-module

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0

100

200

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500

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900

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2017 AEO2016

2015 $/kW-hr

AEO2017 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

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EV100 Lithium-Ion Battery Costs

Discussion purposes only DRAFT ESTIMATES - Do not cite or circulate

5
Light-duty vehicle fleet module • Update fleet vehicle stocks through 2014 using IHS-Polk data

• Include diesel vehicles in sales algorithm

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Freight transportation submodule

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HDV sales, stocks, and GHG/fuel economy standards

• Add alternative fuel vehicles to sales, stocks, and fuel economy modules for classes 2b – 8 

– EVs, PHEVs, HEVs, FFVs, FCVs

– NG and LPG (for class 2b)

• Disaggregate size classifications for sales and fuel economy in Phase 1 

• Update model to incorporate final Phase 2 rule making fuel efficiency requirements and technology 

assumptions

• Add fuel efficiency credit allocation and banking 

• Not planning to add trailers in AEO2017

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Freight transportation submodule

• Update total freight ton-mile and vehicle miles traveled data and regional freight ton-mile data for 

truck, rail, and marine

• Freight rail efficiency and domestic waterborne freight energy efficiency were also updated

• Use higher disaggregation/representation of industry gross outputs (shipments) representation for 

freight drivers

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Air travel submodule

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Air travel submodule

• Update air travel demand (domestic and international travel for 13 world regions) and aircraft fleet 

efficiency

– Re-estimate U.S. and non-U.S travel demand functions

• Update exogenous estimates of aircraft load factors, new technology characteristics, and aircraft 

specifications

• Update aircraft stock

– Stock is made up of three types of aircraft: wide-body, narrow-body, and regional jets

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Discussion/questions

Melissa Lynes | phone: 202-586-5192 

| email: melissa.lynes@eia.gov

John Maples (lead) | phone: 202-586-1757 

| email: john.maples@eia.gov

Mark Schipper | phone: 202-586-1136

| email: mark.schipper@eia.gov

David Stone | phone: 202-586-8851

| email: david.stone@eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

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