March 2023 

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies 5 

APPENDIX D 
Final

EIA - Technology Forecast Updates – Residential 

and Commercial Building Technologies –

Advanced Case

Presented to:

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Prepared by: 

Guidehouse

1200 19th Street, NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

And

Leidos

11951 Freedom Drive

Reston, VA 20190

October 14, 2022
Final

DISCLAIMER

This presentation was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United 

States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, 

makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of 

any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference 

herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily 

constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency, contractor or

subcontractor thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States 

Government or any agency thereof. 

October 2022

2
Final Table of Contents

Page

Objective

4

Methodology

5

Definitions

6

Calculations

7

Market Transformation

8

Residential Lighting

9

General Service 10

Reflector Lamps 14 4-foot Linear 2-lamp Lighting Systems 18

Outdoor Lamps 22

Commercial Lighting 26

General Service Lamps 27

Reflector Lamps 30 4-Foot Linear 2 Lamp Lighting Systems 33 8-Foot Linear 2 Lamp Lighting Systems 37

Low Bay Lighting Systems 41

High Bay Lighting Systems 44

Page

Commercial Refrigeration 47

Compressor Rack Systems 48

Condensers 50

Supermarket Display Cases 52

Reach-In Refrigerators 55

Reach-In Freezers 58

Walk-In Refrigerators 61

Walk-In Freezers 65

Ice Machines 69

Beverage Merchandisers 73

Refrigerated Vending Machines 76

Commercial Ventilation 79

Constant Air Volume 80

Variable Air Volume 82

Fan Coil Units 84

Appendix A: Data Sources

A-1

Appendix B: References

B-1
Final

4

Objective

The objective of this study is to develop baseline and projected performance and cost characteristics for residential and 

commercial end-use equipment in an Advanced Case that assumes accelerated adoption of energy-saving technologies 

due to increased R&D funding and market incentives.

• Examine 2012 and 2018 (commercial) and 2015 and 2020 (residential) baselines, as well as this year’s baseline (2022).

— Review literature, standards, installed base, contractor, and manufacturer information.

— Provide a relative comparison and characterization of the cost and efficiency of a generic product.

• Forecast technology improvements that are projected to be available through 2050.

— Review trends in standards, product enhancements, and research and development (R&D).

— Project impact of product improvements and technology enhancement.

The performance and cost characterization of end-use equipment developed in this study will assist EIA in 

projecting national primary energy consumption.
Final

5

Input from industry stakeholders, including government, R&D organizations, and manufacturers, was used to 

project product enhancements concerning equipment performance and cost attributes.

• Technology forecasting involves many uncertainties.

• Technology developments affect performance and cost forecasts.

• Varied sources ensure a balanced view of technology progress and the probable timing of commercial 

availability.

Methodology
Final

The following tables represent the current and projected efficiencies for residential and commercial building equipment ranging from the installed base in 2012 

and 2018 (for commercial products) and 2015 and 2020 (for residential) to the highest efficiency equipment that is expected to be commercially available by 2050, 

assuming incremental adoption. Below are definitions for the terms used in characterizing the status of each technology.

— Installed Stock Average: the installed and in use equipment for that year. Represents the installed stock of equipment, but does not represent sales.

— Current Standard: the minimum efficiency (or maximum energy use) required (allowed) by current U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) standards, when 

applicable. For lighting, if no product exists at the standard efficiency level, a hypothetical wattage and lumen output is given for the standard’s 

efficiency level.

— ENERGY STAR® : the minimum efficiency required (or maximum energy use allowed) to meet the ENERGY STAR® criteria, when applicable. Presented 

performance data represents certified products just meeting current ENERGY STAR specifications. For lighting, if no products exist at the ENERGY 

STAR efficiency level, a hypothetical wattage and lumen output is given for the ENERGY STAR efficiency level. 

— Low: The minimum efficiency product or product mix available on the market. This rating typically reflects minimal compliance with DOE standards. 

— Typical: the average, or typical, product being sold in the particular timeframe.

— High: the product with the highest efficiency available in the particular timeframe.

— Lumens (lm): the unit for luminous flux used in the SI unit system. This unit is used to indicate a light source’s light output. All reported lumens are 

initial lumens. 1 kilolumen (klm) = 1,000 lumens.

— Correlated Color Temperature (CCT): a specification of the color appearance of the light emitted by a lamp. Note: CCT is not a performance metric.

— Color Rendering Index (CRI): a scale from 0 to 100 percent indicating how accurate a given light source is at rendering color when compared to a 

reference light source. The higher the CRI, the better the color rendering ability.

— British thermal unit (Btu): a measure of the heat content of fuels or energy sources. It is the quantity of heat required to raise the temperature of one 

pound of liquid water by 1°F at the temperature that water has its greatest density (approximately 39 °F ). 1 kBtu = 1,000 Btu.

— Cubic Feet per Minute (CFM): a measure of airflow volume equal to the number of cubic feet of air flowing through a two-dimensional plane in one 

minute. 

— Not Available (N/A): data is not available where indicated. 

6

Definitions
Final

The following metrics are commonly referred to throughout the tables to follow. Below are the calculations for each metric

— Lighting

 System Wattage = (Lamp Wattage * Ballast Factor) / Ballast Efficiency

 System Lumens = Lamp Lumens * Ballast Factor

 Lamp Efficacy = Lamp Lumens / Lamp Wattage

 System Efficacy = System Lumens / System Wattage

 Lamp Cost ($/klm) = Lamp Cost / (Lamp Lumens / 1,000)

 Total Equipment Cost = Lamp Cost + Fixture (including ballast) Cost

 System Cost ($/klm) = Total Equipment Cost / (System Lumens / 1,000). l/b/fdenotes that the cost includes the luminaire, the ballast, and the fixture. 

 Total Installed Cost = Total Equipment Cost + Labor Installation Cost

 Ballast Luminous Efficiency (BLE) = A/(1+B*Avg Total Lamp Arc Power^(-C)) where A, B, and C are pre-defined constants by DOE Energy Conservation Standards for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts.

— Commercial Refrigeration

 Nominal Capacity over Average Input (Btu in / Btu out) = (Cooling or Heat Rejection Capacity)*24*365/(Annual Energy Consumption * 3,412)

 Total Installed Cost = Retail Equipment Cost + Labor Installation Cost

 Total Installed Cost ($/kBtu/hour) = Total Installed Cost*1,000 / (Cooling or Heat Rejection Capacity). h used as an abbreviation for hour throughout 

 Annual Maintenance Cost ($/kBtu/h) = Annual Maintenance Cost * 1,000 / (Cooling or Heat Rejection Capacity)

— Ventilation

 CFM out / Btu in / h = System Airflow / (System Fan Power * 3,412)

 Total Installed Cost ($/1,000 CFM) = Total Installed Cost * 1,000 / System Airflow

 Annual Maintenance Cost ($/1,000 CFM) = Annual Maintenance Cost * 1,000 / System Fan Power

7

Calculations
Final

8

Market Transformation

The market for the reviewed products has changed since this analysis was performed in 2015. These changes are noted 

and reflected in the efficiency and cost characteristics.

• DOE issued federal minimum efficiency standards that have gone into effect for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

(2012), Incandescent Reflector Lamps (2012), and Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts (2019). 

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lumens per watt (lm/W) backstop requirement 

for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (10 CFR 430, 87 FR 

27439). This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product 

classes, such as reflector lamps. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail 

and distribution in July 2023.

• DOE published a Final Rule updating energy conservation standards for Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines at 

the end of 2015, effective in 2018. DOE also issued federal minimum efficiency standards that have or will soon go into 

effect for Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines (2012), Automatic Commercial Ice Makers (2018), Walk-In Coolers 

and Freezers (2017), and Commercial Refrigeration Equipment (2017). 
Final

Residential Lighting

9

Note: More R&D investment and effort in the lighting industry only 

changes projections of LED technologies because additional funding 

and effort will likely not be applied to traditional technologies that 

have been exceeded in performance by their LED counterparts. 

Therefore, the inputs for all non-LED technologies remain unchanged 

from the Reference Case and are not included in this report. 
Final

10

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Lamps

The residential general service lamps characterized in this report are a 60-watt and a 75-watt medium screw-based (E26) A-type incandescent lamp and their halogen, CFL, and LED equivalents. 

A standard 60-watt incandescent lamp produces approximately 800 – 850 lumens. A standard 75-watt incandescent lamp produces approximately 1,100 lumens. 

Performance: 

• A majority of residential lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 5,000K 

(daylight), and 6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is advised to chose a 

product with a similar CCT value in order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100. However, CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. 

CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination. High CRI products are preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. Higher 

CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical lamp prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and 

features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Fixture prices and installation costs are not included for the residential sector. Labor costs are assumed to be negligible because homeowners likely replaces lamps themselves as they burn 

out. Therefore, total installed cost is the price of a lamp, and annual maintenance costs are the cost of replacing the lamps, which is a function of lamp life, lamp price, and the annual 

operating hours. 

• Disposal costs are not characterized for residential lighting in this analysis. In residential cases, disposal is done by the occupant. Lamp and product burnout are assumed to result in no 

"added" cost aside from the work performed to install the replacement. 

Legislation:

• The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) established standards for 60-watt general service lamps, effective in 2014, and 75-watt lamps, effective in 2013. These 

standards cannot be achieved by incandescent bulbs, but can be by halogen, CFL, and LED technologies. 

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps. These standards can not be 

achieved by traditional incandescent or halogen technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry, they will likely not be met. It is currently assumed 

that industry will increase its investment in LED technology at the expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in 

January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service omnidirectional lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 70 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 80 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90. 

Additionally, the lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).
Final

11

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Lamps

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and price for 

products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent, 

halogen, and fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050: 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements 

as of 2022.

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% Improvements in efficacy can be made by using more rare-earth phosphors in compact fluorescent 

lamps. 
Final

12

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service LED Lamps (60 W Incandescent Equivalent)

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 8.7 9.2 10.0 8.9 8.0 13.8 17.8 5.7 5.1 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.4

Lamp Lumens 656 803 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 75.5 87.1 80.0 90.0 100.0 80.0 45.0 141.5 157.2 180.2 200.2 209.0 232.1

CRI 81 85 80 81 90 80 N/A 81 90 81 90 81 90

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 25 21 15 14 18 15 N/A 14 18 14 18 14 18

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 657 657 657 657 657 657 N/A 657 657 657 657 657 657

Lamp Price (2022$) $13.53 $4.56 $6.20 $3.92 $5.32 $6.20 N/A $3.23 $4.39 $2.84 $3.86 $2.46 $3.33

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $20.63 $5.68 $7.75 $4.90 $6.65 $7.75 N/A $7.02 $7.02 $3.57 $3.57 $2.38 $2.38

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $13.53 $4.56 $6.20 $3.92 $5.32 $6.20 N/A $3.23 $4.39 $2.84 $3.86 $2.46 $3.33 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.35 $0.15 $0.27 $0.18 $0.19 $0.27 N/A $0.15 $0.16 $0.13 $0.14 $0.11 $0.12 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $20.63 $5.68 $7.75 $4.90 $6.65 $7.75 N/A $4.04 $5.49 $3.56 $4.83 $3.07 $4.17 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.54 $0.18 $0.34 $0.22 $0.24 $0.34 N/A $0.18 $0.20 $0.16 $0.17 $0.14 $0.15 

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy 

and Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED 

lighting products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.
Final

13

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Filament-LED Lamps (60 W Incandescent Equivalent)

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 9.7 7.1 5.5 6.9 8.0 13.8 17.8 5.4 5.1 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.4

Lamp Lumens 457 650 450 650 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 47.1 91.7 81.8 94.8 100.0 80.0 45.0 149.0 157.2 189.8 200.2 220.0 232.1

CRI 82 84 90 84 80 80 N/A 81 90 81 90 81 90

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 23 21 15 15 15 15 N/A 15 15 15 15 15 15

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 657 657 657 657 657 N/A N/A 657 657 657 657 657 657

Lamp Price (2022$) $15.17 $6.88 $6.25 $5.91 $7.75 N/A N/A $4.87 $6.39 $4.29 $5.62 $3.70 $4.86

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $33.20 $10.58 $13.89 $9.09 $9.69 N/A N/A $7.02 $7.02 $3.57 $3.57 $2.38 $2.38

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $15.17 $6.88 $6.25 $5.91 $7.75 N/A N/A $4.87 $6.39 $4.29 $5.62 $3.70 $4.86 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.43 $0.21 $0.27 $0.26 $0.34 N/A N/A $0.21 $0.28 $0.19 $0.25 $0.16 $0.21 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $33.20 $10.58 $13.89 $9.09 $9.69 N/A N/A $6.09 $7.99 $5.36 $7.03 $4.63 $6.07 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.93 $0.33 $0.61 $0.40 $0.42 N/A N/A $0.27 $0.35 $0.23 $0.31 $0.20 $0.27 

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy 

and Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED 

lighting products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.
Final

14

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector Lamps

The residential reflector lamps characterized in this report are directional lamps that emit approximately 550 – 850 lumens (except for LED PAR38s which have outputs up to 1,700 

lumens). Multiple baseline reflector lamps were analyzed, including 65W Incandescent BR30, Halogen PAR30, Halogen Infrared Reflector (HIR) PAR30, CFL BR30, LED BR30, and 

LED PAR38. 

Performance: 

• A majority of residential lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 

5,000K (daylight), and 6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is 

advised to chose a product with a similar CCT value in order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100, but for CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average 

around 80. CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination, with high CRI products being preferable for retail and display applications where improved color 

quality is of real value. Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these very specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. 

• Fixture prices and installation costs are not included for the residential sector. Labor costs are assumed to be negligible because homeowners likely replaces lamps themselves as 

they burn out. Therefore, total installed cost is the price of a lamp, and annual maintenance costs are the cost of replacing the lamps, which is a function of lamp life, lamp price, 

and the annual operating hours. 

• Disposal costs are not characterized for residential lighting in this analysis. In residential cases, disposal is done by the occupant. Lamp and product burnout are assumed to result 

in no "added" cost aside from the work performed to install the replacement. 

Legislation:

• EPAct92 established minimum performance standards for some reflector lamps and provided exemptions for certain specialty applications (e.g., ER/BR, vibration service, more 

than 5% neodymium oxide, impact resistant, infrared heat, colored). EPAct92 effectively phased-out R-shaped tungsten filament incandescent reflector lamps at certain wattages 

and bulb diameters, replacing them with more efficient and cost effective tungsten-halogen parabolic aluminized reflector (PAR) lamps. EISA 2007 took away certain exemptions 

from EPACT 1992, requiring certain previously exempted lamps to meet EPAct92 minimum performance standards by January 1, 2008. The 65W BR30, a large majority of the 

incandescent reflector lamp market, was still exempted until 2022. 

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps. These standards 

can not be achieved by traditional incandescent or halogen technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry, they will likely not be met. It 

is currently assumed that industry will increase its investment in LED technology at the expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for 

manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.
Final

15

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector Lamps

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service, reflector lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 61 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 70 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90, 

respectively. Additionally, the lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and price for 

products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements 

as of 2022.

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% In addition to higher efficiency reflector coatings, improvements in efficacy can be made by using 

more rare-earth phosphors in compact fluorescent lamps. Lifetime improvements can be made by 

improving the compact fluorescent lamp electrodes.
Final

16

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector LED BR30

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED lighting 

products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 14.2 10.9 11.0 8.8 7.2 10.7 14.4 5.5 4.7 4.8 4.1 4.2 3.7

Lamp Lumens 706 781 800 683 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 49.8 71.5 72.7 78.6 90.3 61.0 45.0 119.2 137.0 136.3 156.7 153.4 176.3

CRI 82 85 92 87 90 80 N/A 87 90 87 90 87 90

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 25 25 25 19 18 15 N/A 19 18 19 18 19 18

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 730 730 730 730 730 N/A N/A 730 730 730 730 730 730

Lamp Price (2022$) $21.40 $15.36 $4.09 $5.01 $5.96 N/A N/A $4.11 $4.89 $3.62 $4.31 $3.14 $3.74

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $30.31 $19.66 $5.11 $7.33 $9.17 N/A N/A $6.32 $7.53 $5.57 $6.64 $4.83 $5.75

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $21.40 $15.36 $4.09 $5.01 $5.96 N/A N/A $4.11 $4.89 $3.62 $4.31 $3.14 $3.74 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.63 $0.45 $0.12 $0.20 $0.24 N/A N/A $0.16 $0.19 $0.14 $0.17 $0.12 $0.15 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $30.31 $19.66 $5.11 $7.33 $9.17 N/A N/A $6.32 $7.53 $5.57 $6.64 $4.83 $5.75

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.89 $0.57 $0.15 $0.29 $0.37 N/A N/A $0.25 $0.30 $0.22 $0.26 $0.19 $0.23 
Final

17

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector LED PAR38

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 19.2 15.5 17.0 16.4 17.0 10.7 29.9 10.8 11.2 9.4 9.8 8.4 8.7

Lamp Lumens 1,202 1,211 1,200 1,344 1,700 650 1,344 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 62.7 77.9 70.6 82.0 100.0 61.0 45.0 124.5 151.7 142.4 173.6 160.2 195.3

CRI 83 86 82 86 82 80 N/A 86 86 86 86 86 86

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,000 3,000 2,700 3,000 3,000 2,700 N/A 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 27 25 27 25 15 N/A 27 25 27 25 27 25

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 730 730 730 730 730 N/A N/A 730 730 730 730 730 730

Lamp Price (2022$) $35.23 $22.44 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $29.31 $18.54 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $35.23 $22.44 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1.07 $0.60 $0.69 $0.62 $0.46 N/A N/A $0.52 $0.38 $0.46 $0.34 $0.41 $0.31 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $29.31 $18.54 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.89 $0.49 $0.58 $0.46 $0.27 N/A N/A $0.39 $0.23 $0.35 $0.20 $0.31 $0.18 

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress presed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023, and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED lighting 

products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.
Final

18

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential 4-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

This section characterizes commercial linear fixtures that house two 4ft long linear lamps and their integrated luminaire equivalents. The technologies available for this system are linear fluorescent and 

LED. 

• T5 lamps are approximately 40% narrower than T8 lamps and almost 60% narrower than T12 lamps. This narrowness allows T5 lamps to be coated with higher quality, more efficient phosphor 

blends than larger diameter lamps, resulting in a more efficacious lamp. The compact size of T5 lamps also permits greater flexibility in lighting design and construction.

• LED options for linear fixtures include replacement lamps that can fit directly into an existing fixture and fully integrated luminaires that can be used to replace existing fixtures. LED replacement 

lamps are also known as TLEDs. Type A TLEDs can be installed with existing ballasts and Type B and C TLEDs require the ballast to be disconnected. Replacement lamps are only sold to go into 

existing fixtures. If a new fixture is to be installed, a fully integrated LED luminaire is a more cost effective and efficient option. Because LED luminaires are fully integrated, they do not have lamp 

and fixture efficiency losses associated with ballasts and fixture optics.

Performance: 

• Residential linear lamps often have a nominal CCT rating of 3500K, but products with CCTs of 3000K, 4000K, and 4100K (neutral white) are also common. 5000K (daylight) lamps are available as 

well. When replacing a light bulb, it is important to choose a product with a similar CCT value to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100, but CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. CRI values of 

80 are considered suitable for general illumination, with high CRI products being preferable for retail and display applicationswhere improved color quality is of real value. Higher CRI is not 

expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these very specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• Many factors influence the price of LED lamps, including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical lamp prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and features 

were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamps. which are sold 

only as a replacement for use in an existing fixture. The LED luminaire is more efficient and cost effective for new installations or fixture retrofits.

• Labor costs for lamp changes are assumed to be negligible because homeowners likely replace lamps themselves as they burn out. Therefore, annual maintenance costs are the cost of the 

replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and the annual operating hours for residential linear systems. 

• Disposal costs are not characterized for residential lighting in this analysis. In residential cases, disposal is done by theoccupant. Lamp and product burnout are assumed to result in no "added" 

cost aside from the work performed to install the replacement. 

Legislation:

• Beginning July 14, 2012 (or July 14, 2014, for T8 700-series phosphor lamps), DOE fluorescent lamp standards required a minimum efficacy of 89 lm/W. Although the amended performance-based 

standards do not explicitly prohibit T12 lamps, no T12 lamps met the standard at the time of its announcement. Since then, however, T12 lamps meeting the standard have entered the market.

• Beginning November 14, 2014, DOE standards required that the characterized residential ballasts have a minimum BLE = 0.993 / (1 + 0.41 * Avg Total Lamp Arc power ^ (- 0.25)). Residential ballasts 

also must have a minimum power factor of 0.5.

• California's Title 24 mandates the use of electronic ballasts with high efficacy luminaires (including fluorescent) of 13 W or higher (CEC, 2005).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover linear lamps. (ENERGY STAR, 2020)
Final

19

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential 4-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume that manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and 

price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050: 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

T12 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T8 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T5 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

20

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Linear LED Replacement Lamp 2-Lamp System

1. N/A because a fixture and an LED replacement lamp would not be purchased separately for a new installation or retrofit when there are integrated LED luminaires that are more 

efficient and cost effective. These lamps are sold only as replacements to go into existing fixtures. 

Assume no labor is associated with lamp replacement in the residential sector because residents likely replace the lamps themselves. 

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 18.5 16.3 16.0 13.7 11.0 8.9 7.2 7.7 7.2 7.7 7.2

Lamp Lumens 2,013 2,130 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 111.0 130.7 112.5 140.1 163.6 216.1 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0

System Wattage 36.9 32.6 32.0 27.4 22.0 17.8 14.4 15.4 14.4 15.4 14.4

System Lumens 3,583 4,004 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456

System Efficacy (lm/W) 97.0 122.8 108.0 134.5 157.1 207.4 240.0 240.0 240.0 240.0 240.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 83 81 82 81 80 81 80 81 80 81 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 3,500 4,100 4,100 5,000 4,100 5,000 4,100 5,000 4,100 5,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 55 50 50 54 50 54 50 54 50 54 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584

Lamp Price (2022$) $27.00 $12.89 $14.63 $11.11 $4.28 $9.97 $3.84 $9.87 $3.80 $9.77 $3.77 

Ballast Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $13.41 $6.05 $8.13 $5.79 $2.38 $5.19 $2.13 $5.14 $2.11 $5.09 $2.09 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $15.07 $6.44 $8.47 $6.03 $2.48 $5.41 $2.22 $5.35 $2.20 $5.30 $2.18 

Labor Cost (2022$/h)2 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $54.00 $25.78 $29.26 $22.22 $8.56 $19.95 $7.68 $19.74 $7.60 $19.55 $7.53 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.57 $0.30 $0.34 $0.24 $0.10 $0.22 $0.09 $0.21 $0.09 $0.21 $0.09 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $15.07 $6.44 $8.47 $6.03 $2.48 $5.41 $2.22 $5.35 $2.20 $5.30 $2.18 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.16 $0.08 $0.10 $0.07 $0.03 $0.06 $0.03 $0.06 $0.03 $0.06 $0.03 
Final

21

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Linear LED Luminaire

1. N/A because the lamp and fixture are both included in the luminaire. 

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 50.0 43.1 49.0 44.0 35.0 27.4 21.8 23.0 19.2 21.2 19.2

System Lumens 4,615 4,945 5,024 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800

System Efficacy (lm/W) 92.3 114.7 102.5 120.5 137.1 193.4 220.1 230.4 250.0 250.0 250.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 83 82 80 79 80 79 80 79 80 79 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,838 3,000 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 56 58 54 53 50 53 50 53 50 53 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) $181.60 $158.60 $144.85 $152.54 $207.80 $121.11 $164.98 $105.34 $143.50 $90.11 $122.76 

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm)

1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $78.70 $64.15 $57.66 $57.54 $86.58 $45.68 $68.74 $39.74 $59.79 $33.99 $51.15 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $80.90 $80.90 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours)* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $403.65 $357.65 $322.70 $338.08 $448.60 $275.22 $362.97 $243.68 $320.01 $213.23 $278.52 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $2.89 $2.49 $2.40 $2.56 $3.52 $2.12 $2.89 $1.91 $2.58 $1.70 $2.27 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $87.46 $72.33 $64.23 $63.76 $93.46 $51.91 $75.62 $45.96 $66.67 $40.22 $58.03 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.63 $0.50 $0.48 $0.48 $0.73 $0.40 $0.60 $0.36 $0.54 $0.32 $0.47 
Final

22

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps

• The residential outdoor lamps characterized in this report include reflector and general service lamps used for security and/or porch lighting that can be switched on from inside 

the home (i.e. parking lot/garage and outdoor common area lighting at multifamily buildings are excluded) with lumen outputs of approximately 1,000 – 1,400 lumens. Multiple 

baseline lamps were analyzed according to estimates of installed base average lumens by lamp type, including: 

Performance: 

• 65W BR30 is the only viable incandescent reflector lamp due to exemption from EISA 2007. The lumen output of this lamp type is well below other reflector lamp technologies 

characterized for residential outdoor spaces, thus its use is limited for this application. This product is, as of 2022, expected to be eliminated by DOE’s 45 lm/W backstop 

requirement.

• A majority of residential lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 

5,000K (daylight), and 6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is 

advised to chose a product with a similar CCT value in order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100. However, CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average 

around 80. CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination. High CRI products are preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is 

of real value. Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical lamp prices in 2015 reflecting a mix of lamp 

characteristics and features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Fixture prices and installation costs are not included for the residential sector. Labor costs are assumed to be negligible because homeowners likely replaces lamps themselves as 

they burn out. Therefore, total installed cost is the price of a lamp, and annual maintenance costs are the cost of replacing the lamps, which is a function of lamp life, lamp price, 

and the annual operating hours for residential reflector lamps. 

• Disposal costs are not characterized for residential lighting in this analysis. In residential cases, disposal is done by the occupant. Lamp and product burnout are assumed to result 

in no "added" cost aside from the work performed to install the replacement. 

Security(Reflector Lamps) Porch (GeneralService Lamps)

Incandescent BR30 IncandescentA-Type

Halogen PAR38 Halogen A-Type

Halogen Infrared Reflector (HIR) PAR38 CFL Bare Spiral

CFL PAR38 LED A-Type Lamp

LED PAR38
Final

23

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps

Legislation:

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps. These standards 

can not be achieved by traditional incandescent or halogen technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry, they will likely not be met. It 

is currently assumed that industry will increase its investment in LED technology at the expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for 

manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service omnidirectional lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 70 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 80 lm/W for lamps with 

CRI < 90. 

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service reflector lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 61 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 70 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90. 

• Additionally, the lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and price for 

products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 

Omnidirectional

0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Incandescent Directional 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% In addition to benefiting from higher efficiency reflector coatings, improvements in efficacy can be made by using more rareearth phosphors in compact fluorescent lamps. Lifetime improvements can be made by improving the compact fluorescent 

lamp electrodes.
Final

24

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: LED Reflector)

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 19.2 15.5 17.0 16.4 17.0 10.7 29.9 10.8 11.2 9.4 9.8 8.4 8.7

Lamp Lumens 1,202 1,211 1,200 1,344 1,700 650 1,344 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 62.7 77.9 70.6 82.0 100.0 61.0 45.0 124.5 151.7 142.4 173.6 160.2 195.3

CRI 83 86 82 86 82 80 N/A 86 86 86 86 86 86

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,000 3,000 2,700 3,000 3,000 2,700 N/A 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 27 25 27 25 15 N/A 27 25 27 25 27 25

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 730 730 730 730 730 N/A N/A 730 730 730 730 730 730

Lamp Price (2022$) $35.23 $22.44 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $29.31 $18.54 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $35.23 $22.44 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1.07 $0.60 $0.69 $0.62 $0.46 N/A N/A $0.52 $0.38 $0.46 $0.34 $0.41 $0.31 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $29.31 $18.54 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/klm) $0.89 $0.49 $0.58 $0.46 $0.27 N/A N/A $0.39 $0.23 $0.35 $0.20 $0.31 $0.18 

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress presed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED lighting 

products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.
Final

25

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Porch: LED A-Type)

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20231 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 12.9 11.8 13.5 11.9 11.0 13.6 24.4 7.6 7.0 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.7

Lamp Lumens 1,073 1,102 1,100 1,089 1,100 1,089 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 83.1 93.5 81.5 92.2 100.0 80 45.0 144.9 157.2 184.6 200.2 214.0 232.1

CRI 81 85 80 86 80 80 N/A 86 80 86 80 86 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 3,000 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 25 21 25 18 25 N/A N/A 18 25 18 25 18 25

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 657 657 657 657 657 N/A N/A 657 657 657 657 657 657

Lamp Price (2022$) $18.13 $8.48 $4.39 $3.92 $5.29 N/A N/A $3.23 $4.36 $2.84 $3.84 $2.46 $3.31

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $16.90 $7.70 $3.99 $3.60 $4.81 N/A N/A $7.02 $7.02 $3.57 $3.57 $2.38 $2.38

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $18.13 $8.48 $4.39 $3.92 $5.29 N/A N/A $3.23 $4.36 $2.84 $3.84 $2.46 $3.31 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.49 $0.27 $0.12 $0.14 $0.14 N/A N/A $0.12 $0.11 $0.10 $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $16.90 $7.70 $3.99 $3.60 $4.81 N/A N/A $2.94 $3.97 $2.59 $3.49 $2.23 $3.01 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/klm) $0.45 $0.24 $0.10 $0.13 $0.13 N/A N/A $0.11 $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 $0.08 $0.08 

1. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress presed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED lighting 

products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.
Final

Commercial Lighting

26

Note: More R&D investment and effort in the lighting industry will 

only change future projections of LED technologies because additional 

funding and effort will likely not be applied to traditional technologies 

that have been exceeded in performance by their LED counterparts. 

Therefore, the inputs for all non-LED technologies remain unchanged 

from the Reference Case and are therefore not included in this report. 

. 
Final

27

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial General Service Lamps in Recessed Can Fixtures

This section characterizes commercial omnidirectional incandescent, halogen, CFL, and LED screw-based general service lamps emitting approximately 1,600 lumens (equivalent to a 100W incandescent lamp) used 

in recessed can fixtures. A recessed can is a directional fixture set into the ceiling, in which all of the light is directed downwards from the opening. Therefore, an omnidirectional lamp is not well suited for use in 

such fixtures because light that emits upwards and out of the sides must be reflected downwards and out of the fixture and some light is absorbed in the process. A fixture efficiency of 61% is used to characterize 

these lumen losses for all omnidirectional lamps. For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each 

year.

Performance: 

• A majority of general service lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 5,000K (daylight), and 

6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is advised to chose a product with a similar CCT value in 

order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100. However, CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. CRI values of 80 are 

considered suitable for general illumination. High CRI products are preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for 

future LED products except for these specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamps which are sold only as a 

replacement for use in an existing fixture. There are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient and cost effective for new installations or fixture retrofits. Many factors influence the price of LED lamps 

including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore typical lamp prices in 2015 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and 

high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and the annual operating 

hours for commercial general service lamps (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for high intensity discharge (HID) lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

Legislation:

• The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) established standards for 100W lamps effective in 2012. These standards cannot be achieved by incandescent bulbs, but they can be met by 

halogen, CFL, and LED technologies from 2012 to 2023.

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. This action 

also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps.These standards can not be achieved by traditional incandescent or halogen 

technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry, they will likely not be met. It is currently assumed that industry will increase its investment in LED technology at the 

expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service omnidirectional lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 70 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 80 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90. Additionally, the 

lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).
Final

28

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial General Service Lamps in Recessed Can Fixtures

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus would be on improving efficacy, lifetime, 

and price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050.

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements 

as of 2022

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% Improvements in efficacy can be made by using more rare-earth phosphors in compact fluorescent 

lamps. Lifetime improvements can be made by improving the compact fluorescent lamp electrodes.
Final

29

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial General Service 100W Equivalent LED Replacement Lamp in Recessed Can 

Fixture

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress presedin the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy 

requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED lighting products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.

3. Based on a fixture efficiency of 61% for an omnidirectional lamp installed in a recessed can fixture. 

DATA

2012 2018 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 26.7 14.5 16.0 14.8 13.0 20.0 34.8 9.4 8.3 7.4 6.5 6.4 6.4

Lamp Lumens 1,600 1,528 1,600 1,567 1,600 1,600 1,567 1,567 1,600 1,567 1,600 1,567 1,600

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 60.0 105.1 100.0 106.0 123.1 80.0 45.0 166.7 193.5 212.2 246.4 246.1 250.0

System Wattage 26.7 14.5 16.0 14.8 13.0 20.0 34.8 9.4 8.3 7.4 6.5 6.4 6.4

System Lumens3 976 932 976 956 976 976 956 956 976 956 976 956 976

System Efficacy (lm/W) 36.6 64.1 61.0 64.7 75.1 48.8 27.5 101.7 118.0 129.5 150.3 150.1 152.5

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 80 80 90 84.8 84 80 N/A 84.8 84.8 84.8 84.8 84.8 84.8

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,000 3,000 2,700 2,700 5,000 N/A N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 22.0 17.9 25.0 16.9 25.0 15.0 N/A 16.9 25.0 16.9 25.0 16.9 25.0

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 N/A N/A 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928

Lamp Price (2022$) $47.45 $11.28 $5.62 $7.04 $3.39 N/A N/A $5.81 $2.80 $5.11 $2.46 $4.41 $2.12

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $23.72 $26.38 $22.07 $22.07 $22.07 N/A N/A $21.20 $21.20 $20.17 $20.17 $19.18 $19.18

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $25.00 $7.38 $3.51 $4.49 $2.12 N/A N/A $3.71 $1.75 $3.26 $1.54 $2.82 $1.33

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $72.92 $40.40 $28.37 $30.46 $26.09 N/A N/A $28.26 $24.59 $26.45 $23.18 $24.68 $21.83 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 N/A N/A $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 N/A N/A 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $148.39 $114.88 $93.69 $95.11 $91.46 N/A N/A $93.01 $90.00 $91.27 $88.63 $89.59 $87.30 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $11.49 $4.16 $1.76 $3.02 $1.32 N/A N/A $2.66 $1.20 $2.45 $1.14 $2.25 $1.07

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $152.04 $123.25 $95.99 $99.52 $93.71 N/A N/A $97.32 $92.21 $95.51 $90.81 $93.75 $89.45 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $11.77 $4.46 $1.80 $3.16 $1.35 N/A N/A $2.78 $1.23 $2.57 $1.16 $2.35 $1.10
Final

30

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reflector Lamps in Recessed Can Fixtures

This section characterizes commercial halogen, halogen infrared reflector (HIR), and LED screw-based reflector lamps emitting approximately 1400 lumens used in recessed can fixtures. 

• HIR lamps contain a tungsten halogen capsule with a film coating on the inside of the capsule. The coating reflects infrared radiation back into the lamp filament, which forces the filament to 

burn at a higher temperature. This design increases the efficacy of the lamp, without reducing operating life.

• A recessed can is a directional fixture set into the ceiling, in which all of the light is directed downwards from the opening. Therefore, a reflector lamp, which employs reflective coating to 

direct light out in only one direction, is well suited for use in such fixtures. However, some light is not able to escape the fixture, and a fixture efficiency of 93% is used to characterize these 

minimal lumen losses. For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• A majority of reflector lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 5,000K 

(daylight), and 6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is advised to chose a 

product with a similar CCT value in order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100. However, CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. 

CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination. High CRI products are preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. Higher 

CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamps which 

are sold only as a replacement for use in an existing fixture. Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and the 

annual operating hours for commercial reflector lamps (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

Legislation:

• EPAct92 established minimum performance standards for some reflector lamps and provided exemptions for certain specialty applications (e.g., ER/BR, vibration service, more than 5% 

neodymium oxide, impact resistant, infrared heat, colored). EPAct92 effectively phased-out R-shaped tungsten filament incandescent reflector lamps at certain wattages and bulb diameters, 

replacing them with more efficient and cost effective tungsten-halogen parabolic aluminized reflector (PAR) lamps. EISA2007 took away certain exemptions from EPACT 1992, requiring 

certain previously exempted lamps to meet EPAct92 minimum performance standards by January 1, 2008. In 2015, DOE issued a final rule that determined that amending the standards for 

incandescent reflector lamps could not be economically justified. 

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and Conservation 

Act. This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps. These standards can not be achieved by 

traditional incandescent or halogen technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry,they will likely not be met. It is currently assumed that industry 

will increase its investment in LED technology at the expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for 

retail and distribution in July 2023.
Final

31

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reflector Lamps in Recessed Can Fixtures

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service reflector lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 61 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 70 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90. 

Additionally, the lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus would be on improving efficacy, lifetime, 

and price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements 

as of 2022

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% In addition to higher efficiency reflector coatings, improvements in efficacy can be made by using 

more rare-earth phosphors in compact fluorescent lamps. Lifetime improvements can be made by 

improving the compact fluorescent lamp electrodes.
Final

32

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial LED Reflector Lighting (PAR38)

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR3 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 17.2 16.6 17.0 16.4 17.0 22.0 29.9 14.0 11.2 9.4 9.8 8.4 8.7

Lamp Lumens 1,045 1,210 1,200 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,344 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 60.9 73.0 70.6 82.0 100.0 61.0 45.0 95.7 151.7 142.4 173.6 160.2 195.3

System Wattage 17.2 16.6 17.0 16.4 17.0 22.0 29.9 14.0 11.2 9.4 9.8 8.4 8.7

System Lumens1 972 1,125 1,116 1,250 1,581 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,581 1,250 1,581 1,250 1,581

System Efficacy (lm/W) 56.6 67.9 65.6 76.1 93.0 56.7 41.9 89.0 141.1 132.4 161.4 149.0 181.6

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 83 83 82 86 82 80 N/A 86 82 86 82 86 82

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,000 3,000 2,700 3,000 3,000 3,000 N/A 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 22 15 25 28 25 25 N/A 28 25 28 25 28 25

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 N/A N/A 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928

Lamp Price (2022$) $61.98 $28.10 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $23.72 $26.38 $22.07 $22.07 $22.07 N/A N/A $21.20 $21.20 $20.17 $20.17 $19.18 $19.18

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $59.31 $23.23 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $88.18 $48.42 $41.02 $36.13 $23.88 N/A N/A $32.48 $21.75 $30.02 $20.22 $27.64 $18.74 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 N/A N/A $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 N/A N/A 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $162.93 $131.71 $111.78 $111.16 $103.76 N/A N/A $106.60 $100.38 $103.52 $97.96 $100.55 $95.63 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $14.75 $10.50 $5.32 $4.64 $3.74 N/A N/A $3.99 $3.25 $3.64 $2.98 $3.29 $2.71

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $167.64 $117.04 $100.16 $88.92 $65.63 N/A N/A $85.28 $63.49 $82.81 $61.96 $80.44 $60.48 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $15.17 $9.33 $4.77 $3.72 $2.37 N/A N/A $3.20 $2.05 $2.91 $1.88 $2.63 $1.71

1. Based on a fixture efficiency of 93% for an omnidirectional lamp installed in a recessed can fixture.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress presedin the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. The new minimum 

efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule also amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product 

classes, including reflector lamps. All LED lighting products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.

3. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 2020)
Final

33

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

This section characterizes commercial linear fixtures that house two 4ft long linear lamps and their integrated luminaire equivalents. The technologies available for this system are linear 

fluorescent and LED. 

• Linear fluorescent options are T5, T8, and T12 lamps. T5 lamps are approximately 40% narrower than T8 lamps and almost 60% narrower than T12 lamps. This narrowness allows T5 lamps 

to be coated with higher quality, more efficient phosphor blends than larger diameter lamps, resulting in a more efficacious lamp. The compact size of T5 lamps also permits greater flexibility 

in lighting design and construction.

• LED options for linear fixtures include replacement lamps that can fit directly into an existing fixture and fully integratedluminaires that can be used to replace existing fixtures. LED 

replacement lamps are also known as TLEDs. Type A TLEDs can be installed with existing ballasts and Type B and C TLEDs require the ballast to be disconnected. Replacement lamps are 

only sold to go into existing fixtures. If a new fixture is to be installed, a fully integrated LED luminaire is a more cost effective and efficient option. Because LED luminaires are fully 

integrated, they do not have lamp and fixture efficiency losses associated with ballasts and fixture optics. For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year 

fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• Linear lamps often have a nominal CCT rating of 3,500K, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 4,000K, and 4,100K (neutral white) are also common. 5,000K (daylight) lamps are available as 

well. When replacing a light bulb, it is important to choose a product with a similar CCT value to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100, but CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. CRI 

values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination, with high CRI products being preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. 

Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these very specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of two lamps, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated withthe installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamp, 

which are sold only as a replacement for use in an existing fixture. There are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient and cost effective for new installations or fixture retrofits. 

Many factors influence the price of LED lamps, including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical lamp prices in 2022, reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics 

and features, were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and 

the annual operating hours of 4055 hours per year for commercial 4ft linear systems (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

Legislation:

• Beginning July 14, 2012 (or July 14, 2014, for T8 700-series phosphor lamps), DOE fluorescent lamp standards required a minimum efficacy of 89 lm/W. Although the amended performancebased standards do not explicitly prohibit T12 lamps, no T12 lamps met the standard at the time of its announcement. Since then,however, T12 lamps meeting the standard have entered the 

market.

• California's Title 24 mandates the use of electronic ballasts with high efficacy luminaires (including fluorescent) of 13 W or higher (CEC, 2005).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover commercial linear luminaires (ENERGY STAR, 2020). 
Final

34

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume that manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and 

price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

T8 F32 Commodity 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T8 F32 High Efficiency/High Output 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T5 F28 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

35

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-ft Linear LED Replacement Lamp in 2-Lamp System

1. N/A because a fixture and an LED replacement lamp would not be purchased separately for a new installation or retrofit when there are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient 

and cost effective. These lamps are sold only as replacements to go into existing fixtures.

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 20.8 17.0 16.0 13.7 11.0 8.9 7.2 7.7 7.2 7.7 7.2

Lamp Lumens 2,091 2,003 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 100.5 117.8 112.5 140.1 163.6 216.1 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0

System Wattage 41.6 34.0 32.0 27.4 22.0 17.8 14.4 15.4 14.4 15.4 14.4

System Lumens 3,555 3,565 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456

System Efficacy (lm/W) 85.4 104.9 108.0 134.5 157.1 207.4 240.0 240.0 240.0 240.0 240.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 86 81 82 81 80 81 80 81 80 81 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 4,020 4,100 3,500 5,000 3,500 5,000 3,500 5,000 3,500 5,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 50 54 50 54 50 54 50 54 50 54 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,055 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541

Lamp Price (2022$) $278.36 $35.06 $14.63 $11.11 $4.28 $9.88 $3.81 $9.66 $3.72 $9.44 $3.64 

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $133.10 $17.50 $8.13 $5.79 $2.38 $5.15 $2.11 $5.03 $2.07 $4.92 $2.02 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $587.35 $70.12 $29.26 $22.22 $8.56 $19.76 $7.61 $19.31 $7.44 $18.89 $7.28 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $47.63 $6.61 $3.93 $3.17 $2.46 $3.01 $2.39 $2.98 $2.38 $2.95 $2.37 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $165.20 $19.67 $8.47 $6.03 $2.48 $5.36 $2.20 $5.24 $2.15 $5.12 $2.11 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $13.40 $1.85 $1.14 $0.86 $0.71 $0.82 $0.69 $0.81 $0.69 $0.80 $0.69 
Final

36

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-ft Linear LED Luminaire to Replace 2-Lamp Systems

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 51.5 50.0 49.0 44.0 35.0 27.4 21.8 23.0 19.2 21.2 19.2

System Lumens 4,818 4,673 5,024 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800

System Efficacy (lm/W) 93.6 93.5 102.5 120.5 137.1 193.4 220.1 230.4 250.0 250.0 250.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 84 79 80 79 80 79 80 79 80 79 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,500 3,650 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 67 53 54 53 50 53 50 53 50 53 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,055 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) $723.96 $188.00 $144.85 $152.54 $207.80 $127.58 $173.80 $118.37 $161.25 $109.57 $149.27 

Ballast Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $150.25 $40.23 $57.66 $57.54 $86.58 $24.06 $36.21 $22.33 $33.59 $20.67 $31.10 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $762.57 $226.61 $322.70 $338.08 $448.60 $160.58 $206.80 $151.37 $194.25 $142.57 $182.27 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $46.16 $14.67 $11.30 $12.01 $16.52 $10.40 $14.19 $9.80 $13.33 $9.23 $12.51 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $158.27 $48.49 $64.23 $63.76 $93.46 $30.29 $43.08 $28.55 $40.47 $26.89 $37.97 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $9.58 $3.14 $2.25 $2.27 $3.44 $1.96 $2.96 $1.85 $2.78 $1.74 $2.61 

1. N/A because the lamp and fixture are both included in the luminaire.
Final

37

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

This section characterizes commercial linear fixtures that house two 8ft long linear lamps and their integrated luminaire equivalents. The technologies available for this system are linear 

fluorescent and LED. 

• Linear fluorescent options are T5, T8, and T12 lamps. T5 lamps are approximately 40% narrower than T8 lamps and almost 60% narrower than T12 lamps. This narrowness allows T5 lamps 

to be coated with higher quality, more efficient phosphor blends than larger diameter lamps, resulting in a more efficacious lamp. The compact size of T5 lamps also permits greater flexibility 

in lighting design and construction.

• LED options for linear fixtures include replacement lamps that can fit directly into an existing fixture and fully integratedluminaires that can be used to replace existing fixtures. LED 

replacement lamps are also known as TLEDs. Type A TLEDs can be installed with existing ballasts and Type B and C TLEDs require the ballast to be disconnected. Replacement lamps are 

only sold to go into existing fixtures. If a new fixture is to be installed, a fully integrated LED luminaire is a more cost effective and efficient option. Because LED luminaires are fully 

integrated, they do not have lamp and fixture efficiency losses associated with ballasts and fixture optics. For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year 

fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• Linear lamps often have a nominal CCT rating of 3,500K, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 4,000K, and 4,100K (neutral white) are also common. 5,000K (daylight) lamps are available as 

well. When replacing a light bulb, it is important to choose a product with a similar CCT value to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100, but CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. CRI 

values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination, with high CRI products being preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. 

Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these very specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of two lamps, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated withthe installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamps, 

which are sold only as a replacement for use in an existing fixture. There are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient and cost effective for new installations or fixture retrofits. 

Many factors influence the price of LED lamps, including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical lamp prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and 

features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and 

the annual operating hours of 4147 hours per year for commercial 8ft linear systems (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

Legislation:

• Beginning July 14, 2012 (or July 14, 2014, for T8 700-series phosphor lamps), DOE fluorescent lamp standards required a minimum efficacy of 89 lm/W. Although the amended performancebased standards do not explicitly prohibit T12 lamps, no T12 lamps met the standard at the time of its announcement. Since then,however, T12 lamps meeting the standard have entered the 

market.

• California's Title 24 mandates the use of electronic ballasts with high efficacy luminaires (including fluorescent) of 13 W or higher (CEC, 2005).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover commercial linear luminaires (ENERGY STAR, 2020). 
Final

38

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume that manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and 

price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050: 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

T8 F59 Typical Efficiency 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T8 F59 High Efficiency 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T8 F96 High Output 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

39

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-ft Linear LED Replacement Lamp for a 2-Lamp System

1. N/A because a fixture and an LED replacement lamp would not be purchased separately for a new installation or retrofit when there are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient and cost 

effective. These lamps are sold only as replacements to go into existing fixtures.

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage N/A 35.7 34.0 39.0 40.0 25.3 25.9 21.9 22.4 19.8 22.0

Lamp Lumens N/A 3,975 4,200 4,960 5,500 4,960 5,500 4,960 5,500 4,960 5,500

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) N/A 111.2 123.5 127.2 137.5 196.1 212.0 226.7 245.1 250.0 250.0

System Wattage N/A 71.5 68.0 78.0 80.0 50.6 51.9 43.8 44.9 39.7 44.0

System Lumens N/A 7,473 8,064 9,523 10,560 9,523 10,560 9,523 10,560 9,523 10,560

System Efficacy (lm/W) N/A 104.5 118.6 122.1 132.0 188.2 203.5 217.7 235.3 240.0 240.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI N/A 80 82 81 82 81 82 81 82 81 82

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) N/A 5,000 4,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 5,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) N/A 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) N/A 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147

Lamp Price (2022$) N/A $89.59 $33.11 $37.22 $41.44 $32.35 $36.02 $31.71 $35.30 $31.11 $34.64 

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $19.00 $7.88 $7.50 $7.53 $6.52 $6.55 $6.39 $6.42 $6.27 $6.30 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

1 N/A $23.98 $8.21 $7.82 $7.85 $6.79 $6.82 $6.66 $6.69 $6.53 $6.56 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Total Installed Cost (2022$) N/A $200.80 $84.70 $92.92 $101.36 $83.18 $90.52 $81.90 $89.09 $80.70 $87.76 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) N/A $16.65 $7.02 $7.71 $8.41 $6.90 $7.51 $6.79 $7.39 $6.69 $7.28 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $50.51 $10.50 $9.76 $9.60 $8.73 $8.57 $8.60 $8.44 $8.47 $8.31 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $4.19 $0.87 $0.81 $0.80 $0.72 $0.71 $0.71 $0.70 $0.70 $0.69 
Final

40

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-ft Linear LED Luminaire Replacement for a 2-Lamp System

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage N/A 73.0 90.0 78.0 72.0 49.7 45.9 42.4 41.6 37.9 41.6

System Lumens N/A 8,000 8,200 9,465 10,400 9,465 10,400 9,465 10,400 9,465 10,400

System Efficacy (lm/W) N/A 109.6 91.1 121.3 144.4 190.4 226.7 223.1 250.0 250.0 250.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI N/A 90 80 81 80 81 80 81 80 81 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) N/A 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) N/A 75 50 73 100 73 100 73 100 73 100

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) N/A 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) N/A $759.16 $119.99 $142.48 $153.91 $109.90 $118.71 $96.00 $103.70 $82.68 $89.31 

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $80.00 $14.63 $15.05 $14.80 $11.61 $11.41 $10.14 $9.97 $8.73 $8.59 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) N/A $708.20 $206.52 $229.01 $240.44 $196.42 $205.24 $182.53 $190.23 $169.20 $175.83 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) N/A $39.16 $22.40 $17.46 $13.53 $14.40 $11.11 $13.09 $10.08 $11.84 $9.10 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $88.53 $25.18 $24.20 $23.12 $20.75 $19.73 $19.28 $18.29 $17.88 $16.91 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $4.89 $2.73 $1.84 $1.30 $1.52 $1.07 $1.38 $0.97 $1.25 $0.87 
Final

41

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Low-Bay Lighting Systems

The commercial low bay lighting characterized in this report is a one-lamp and one-ballast system in a low/high bay fixture that emits between 6,000 and 10,000 system lumens. Low 

bay lighting is defined as “interior lighting where the roof trusses or ceiling height is less than 25ft. above the floor”(IESNA, 2000). For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture 

renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• Low bay conventional lighting technologies, such as metal halide and sodium vapor lamps, provide higher efficacy ranging from 80 lm/W to 100 lm/W. Older, mercury vapor 

lamps have much lower efficacy at approximately 40 lm/W.

• CCT and CRI values range broadly based on technology type for low bay products.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED luminaires, 

which are sold as one integrated system. Many factors influence the price of LED luminaires, including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical 

luminaire prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp 

life and the annual operating hours for commercial low-bay systems (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover low/high bay luminaires (ENERGY STAR, 2012). 
Final

42

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Low-Bay Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus would be on improving efficacy, lifetime, 

and price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Mercury Vapor 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

Metal Halide 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

Sodium Vapor 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

43

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial LED Low-Bay Luminaire

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 68.1 84.0 40.0 73.0 76.0 47.1 49.0 40.5 48.0 40.0 48.0

System Lumens 4,877 10,000 5,000 10,000 12,000 10,000 12,000 10,000 12,000 10,000 12,000

System Efficacy (lm/W) 71.6 119.0 125.0 137.0 157.9 212.5 244.9 246.7 250.0 250.0 250.0

Ballast Efficiency N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 85 78 84 81 80 81 84 81 84 81 81

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,000 4,806 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 4,000

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 50 74 75 65 60 65 60 65 60 65 60

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) $903.82 $281.00 $63.99 $145.46 $285.89 $123.82 $243.37 $111.24 $218.63 $99.09 $194.75 

Ballast Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm)

1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $185.31 $28.10 $12.80 $14.55 $23.82 $12.38 $20.28 $11.12 $18.22 $9.91 $16.23

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $865.44 $396.83 $162.99 $244.46 $384.89 $222.82 $342.37 $210.24 $317.63 $198.09 $293.75 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $69.95 $37.02 $12.23 $24.24 $45.18 $21.55 $39.45 $19.99 $36.12 $18.48 $32.90 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $177.44 $39.68 $32.60 $24.45 $32.07 $22.28 $28.53 $21.02 $26.47 $19.81 $24.48 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $14.34 $3.70 $2.45 $2.42 $3.77 $2.16 $3.29 $2.00 $3.01 $1.85 $2.74 

1. N/A because the lamp and fixture are both included in the luminaire.
Final

44

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial High-Bay Lighting Systems

The commercial high-bay lighting characterized in this report is a one-lamp and one-ballast system in a low/high bay fixture that emits greater than 10,000 system lumens. High-bay 

lighting is defined as “interior lighting where the roof trusses or ceiling height is greater than 25ft. above the floor” (IESNA, 2000). For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture 

renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• High bay conventional lighting technologies, such as metal halide and sodium vapor lamps, provide higher efficacy ranging from 80 lm/W to 100 lm/W. Older, mercury vapor 

lamps have much lower efficacy at approximately 40 lm/W.

• CCT and CRI values range broadly based on technology type for high bay products.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED luminaires, 

which are sold as one integrated system. Many factors influence the price of LED luminaires including, CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical 

luminaire prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp 

life and the annual operating hours for commercial high bay systems (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover low/high bay luminaires (ENERGY STAR, 2012). 
Final

45

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial High-Bay Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus would be on improving efficacy, lifetime 

and price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Mercury Vapor 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

Metal Halide 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

Sodium Vapor 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

46

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial LED High-Bay Luminaire

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage1

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 212 167 150 138 130 89 84 76 76 74 76

System Lumens 18,915 18,797 18,500 18,500 18,900 18,500 18,900 18,500 18,900 18,500 18,900

System Efficacy (lm/W) 89 113 123 134 145 208 225 242 250 250 250

Ballast Efficiency N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 74 78 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 70 67 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) $2,842.05 $448.43 $177.54 $195.81 $234.20 $162.12 $193.90 $148.87 $178.06 $136.20 $162.90

Ballast Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm)

1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $150.25 $23.86 $9.60 $10.58 $12.39 $8.76 $10.26 $8.05 $9.42 $7.36 $8.62

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $2,957.88 $564.26 $276.54 $294.81 $333.20 $261.12 $292.90 $247.87 $277.06 $235.20 $261.90 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $170.78 $34.07 $11.18 $11.91 $13.47 $10.55 $11.84 $10.02 $11.20 $9.51 $10.58 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $156.38 $30.02 $14.95 $15.94 $17.63 $14.11 $15.50 $13.40 $14.66 $12.71 $13.86 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $9.03 $1.81 $0.60 $0.64 $0.71 $0.57 $0.63 $0.54 $0.59 $0.51 $0.56 

1. N/A because the lamp and fixture are both included in the luminaire.
Final

Refrigeration

47
Final

48

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Compressor Rack Systems

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Capacity (kBtu/h)1 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,190 930 N/A 1,190 930 1,190 930 1,190 930

Median Store Size (ft2

) 46,500 31,997 35,197 35,197 35,197 N/A 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197

Power Input (kW) 162 155 162 160 125 N/A 160 125 160 125 160 125

Annual Energy Use (MMWh/y)2 1,497 1,497 1,305 1,232 1,160 N/A 1,109 1,044 998 939 898 845

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.00 1.15 1.21 1.29 N/A 1.35 1.43 1.50 1.59 1.67 1.77

Average Life (years) 15 15 15 15 15 N/A 15 15 15 15 15 15

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $630,000 $630,000 $488,000 $625,000 $630,000 N/A $625,000 $630,000 $625,000 $630,000 $625,000 $630,000 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $525,000 $525,000 $406,667 $525,210 $677,419 N/A $525,210 $677,419 $525,210 $677,419 $525,210 $677,419 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)4 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 N/A $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $2,833 $2,833 $2,833 $2,857 $3,656 N/A $2,857 $3,656 $2,857 $3,656 $2,857 $3,656

1. The total capacity represents the nominal compressor capacity required for the entire refrigeration system of a typical supermarket. This refrigeration system usually includes two low 

temperature racks and two medium temperature racks. For 2018, a 1,200 MBtu/h total cooling capacity is based on a 200-ton estimate for total capacity–80 tons for the medium temperature 

racks and 20 tons for the low temperature racks.

2. Capacity and annual energy consumption for 2022 and beyond are based on market research and Guidehouse estimates.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Maintenance cost includes oil changes, bearing lubrication, filter replacement, and system functionality checks-approximately half a day per rack of labor for technician is assumed.

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

49

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Compressor Rack Systems

• Commercial compressor rack systems that serve commercial supermarket display cases and walk-ins consist of a 

number of parallel-connected compressors located in a separate machine room. By modulating compressor capacity, 

these integrated systems provide higher efficiency and mechanical longevity.

• Rack integrators generally supply a packaged compressor rack for which much of the necessary piping, insulation, 

components, and controls are pre-assembled. 

• A typical supermarket will have 10 to 20 compressors mounted in racks in the 3-horsepower (hp) to 15-hp size range. 

Usually, each rack has three to five compressors serve a series of loads with nearly identical evaporator temperature.

• The duty cycle for compressors is usually in the range of 60% to 70%.

• Energy use and capacity for the Reference Case are projected to remain static over the coming decades because 

commercial compressor racks systems are a mature technology. The Reference Case assumes low R&D efforts because 

it is an established technology.

• For this Advanced Case, a 10% reduction in energy consumption is assumed to occur over the Reference Case for 

2022 and beyond due to vacuum insulated panel (VIP) adoption by display cases and a relaxation in charge size 

limits for more efficient, low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants. Also, increased adoption of 

toxic/flammable refrigerants such as ammonia and propane due to improved safety technology such as leak 

detection. 
Final

50

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Condensers

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Capacity (kBtu/h)1 1,680 1,520 1,440 1,440 1,440 N/A 1,440 1,368 1,300 1,300 1,235 1,235

Median Store Size (ft2

) 46,500 31,997 35,197 35,197 35,197 N/A 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197

Power Input (kW) 25 25 18 18 18 N/A 18 18 18 18 18 18

Annual Energy Use (MMWh/y) 120 120 115 106 86 N/A 95 77 86 70 77 63

Indexed Annual Efficiency2 1.00 1.00 1.04 1.13 1.40 N/A 1.26 1.55 1.40 1.72 1.55 1.91

Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 10 10 10 10 10 10

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $54,000 $60,000 $54,000 $60,000 $80,000 N/A $60,000 $80,000 $60,000 $80,000 $60,000 $80,000 

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $32,143 $39,474 $37,500 $41,667 $55,556 N/A $41,667 $58,480 $46,168 $61,538 $48,598 $64,777 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)3 $954 $954 $954 $954 $954 N/A $954 $954 $954 $954 $954 $954 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $0.57 $0.63 $0.66 $0.66 $0.66 N/A $0.66 $0.70 $0.73 $0.73 $0.77 $0.77

1. Total capacity is the total heat rejected (THR) by condensers comprised of two low temperature condensers (THRL = 240 MBtu/h each, suction temperature = -25°F, condensing 

temperature-110°F) and two medium temperature condensers (THRM = 520 MBtu/h each, suction temperature = 15°F, condensing temperature = 115°F); ambient temperature = 95°F. 

(NCI, 2009). For 2022 and beyond, capacity was estimated by Guidehouse.

2. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

3. Maintenance cost includes coil cleaning, leak checking, belt replacement as necessary, and system functionality checks.

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

51

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Condensers

• Condensers are designed with multiple methods of cooling: air-cooled, water-cooled, and evaporative. These units 

can be single-circuit or a multiple circuit.

• Commercial condensers are remotely located, typically installed on the roof of a supermarket. 

• For use with parallel compressors in supermarkets, air-cooled units are the most commonly used condensers. This 

analysis is based on multiple air-cooled condensers connected to a supermarket refrigeration system comprised of 

two low temperature condensers and two medium temperature condensers. 

• Each compressor rack has a dedicated condenser or a separate circuit of a single common condenser. Condenser 

temperatures of multiple racks are often different. 

• The duty cycle for condensers is usually in the range 50%-70%.

• For this Advanced Case, a 10% reduction in energy consumption and a 5% reduction in required capacity is 

assumed to occur over the Reference Case for 2020 and beyond due to VIP adoption by display cases and a 

relaxation in charge size limits for more efficient, low GWP. Also, increased adoption of toxic/flammable 

refrigerants such as ammonia and propane due to improved safety technology such as leak detection. 
Final

52

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Supermarket Display Cases

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 17,623 11,850 11,850 11,850 11,850 N/A 11,850 11,850 11,850 11,850 11,850 11,850

Median Store Size (ft2

) 46,500 31,997 35,197 35,197 35,197 N/A 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197

Case Length (ft) 12 12 12 12 12 N/A 12 12 12 12 12 12

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)1,2 13,497 10,506 10,506 9,771 9,087 N/A 9,282 8,632 8,818 8,201 8,377 7,791

Annual Energy Use / Case 

Length (kWh/ft) 1,125 876 876 814 757 N/A 774 719 735 683 698 649

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.28 1.28 1.38 1.49 N/A 1.45 1.56 1.53 1.65 1.61 1.73

Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $8,510 $10,650 $7,265 $9,500 $10,680 N/A $9,500 $10,680 $9,500 $10,680 $9,500 $10,680 

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $10,811 $12,650 $9,265 $11,500 $12,680 N/A $11,500 $12,680 $11,500 $12,680 $11,500 $12,680 

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 613 1,068 782 970 1,070 N/A 970 1,070 970 1,070 970 1,070

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)4 $940 $940 $940 $940 $940 N/A $940 $940 $940 $940 $940 $940 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $53.34 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 N/A $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32

1. For 2022 and beyond, energy consumption and cost values were estimated using shipment-weighted averages reported in DOE’s 2014 CRE Final Rule Technical Support Document (TSD) 

for equipment commonly used as display cases. DOE’s updated conservation standard went into effect in 2017, so units sold in 2018 are assumed to comply with this standard. 

2. For consistency with DOE rulemaking practices, Supermarket Display Case Energy Use reported above includes energy use of the compressor racks and condensers. To avoid double 

counting, do not add Energy Use from the Compressor Rack or Condenser Systems tabs if calculating total energy consumption.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Maintenance cost includes preventative maintenance costs such as cleaning evaporator coils, drain pans, fans, and intake screensas well as lamp replacements and other lighting 

maintenance activities. After 2012, these values are based on a reported maintenance and repair cost of $220 per unit for preventative maintenance plus approximately $60 per linear foot 

for additional repair and maintenance.

Lower annual energy use, increased installed cost compared with Reference Case 
Final

53

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Supermarket Display Cases

Equipment Description Standards Equation (2012) Standards Equation (2017)

Vertical Open Cooler (VOP.RC.M) 0.82xTDA+4.07 0.64xTDA+4.07

Semi-Vertical Open Cooler (SVO.RC.M) 0.83xTDA+3.18 0.66xTDA+3.18

Horizontal Open Cooler (HZO.RC.M) 0.35xTDA+2.88 0.35xTDA+2.88

Transparent-Doored Cooler (VCT.RC.M) 0.22xTDA+1.95 0.15xTDA+1.95

Deli Display Cooler (SOC.RC.M) 0.51xTDA+0.11 0.44xTDA+0.11

Transparent-Doored Freezer (VCT.RC.L) 0.56xTDA+2.61 0.49xTDA+2.61

Horizontal Open Freezer (HZO.RC.L) 0.57xTDA+6.88 0.55xTDA+6.88

• DOE set federal energy efficiency standards for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment (CRE) in 2009. These standards 

set maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per day, for display cases manufactured sold in the 

United States on or after January 1, 2012. 

• DOE updated its Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment in 2014 for equipment 

sold on or after March 27, 2017. 

• The table below lists equipment used as supermarket display cases and their corresponding Energy Conservation 

Standard levels. The maximum allowable daily energy consumption for each equipment class is a linear function of 

Total Display Area (TDA).
Final

54

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Supermarket Display Cases

• According to CBECS 2018 microdata, the average building size for food sale building type is 31,997.

• Unit energy consumption for 2022 and beyond is estimated using a shipment-weighted average by efficiency level and equipment 

class, using data in DOE’s 2014 CRE Final Rule TSD with updated analysis from Guidehouse in 2016. The equipment classes analyzed

are listed in the table on the previous slide.

• Supermarket refrigeration systems consist of refrigerated display cases, condensing units, and centralized compressor racks.

• A typical supermarket display case contains lighting, evaporators, evaporator fans, piping, insulation, valves, and controls.

• The efficiency of supermarket display cases can be increased through the use of improved evaporator coils, larger evaporators, higher 

efficiency evaporator fan blades, high efficiency doors, LED lighting, and improved insulation.

• For 2020 and beyond, accelerated adoption of energy savings technologies is assumed to take place more than in the Reference 

Case, including accelerated shipments migration to doored over open units, where applicable, as well as vacuum insulated panels.

• The incremental cost of VIPs is assumed to decrease from its present value due to increased R&D funding.

• Projected installed costs for this Advanced Case are higher than the Reference Case, even assuming increased R&D funding. 

Advanced energy-saving technologies are assumed to be made financially viable for operators by increased market incentives such 

as utility efficiency rebate programs and/or carbon pricing.

• This Advanced Case assumes a transition from Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) to more efficient propane and ammonia refrigerants by 

2040.

• Advanced Case assumes a 5% reduction in energy use per decade based on technology and efficiency improvements.
Final

55

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Refrigerators

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 2,929 2,400 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349

Size (ft3) 49 49 46 46 46 47 46 46 46 46 46 46

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y) 2,340 2,222 1,935 1,351 810 810 1,283 770 1,283 770 1,283 770

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/y/ft3)

1 48 45 42 29 18 17 28 17 28 17 28 17

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.05 1.21 1.73 2.89 2.89 1.82 3.04 1.82 3.04 1.82 3.04

Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $2,624 $2,403 $2,728 $2,780 $3,021 $3,021 $3,058 $3,323 $3,323 $3,364 $3,655 $3,655 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $3,454 $3,282 $3,591 $3,643 $3,884 $3,884 $3,932 $4,197 $4,197 $4,238 $4,529 $4,529

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $1,179 $1,368 $1,529 $1,551 $1,654 $1,654 $1,885 $2,568 $1,885 $2,568 $1,885 $2,568

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)5 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $63 $77 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79

1. EPACT 2005 energy standards went into effect in 2010. 2022 low efficiency cost and energy consumption values are based on minimum compliance with this standard. Unless otherwise 

noted, all other cases are based on shipment-weighted averages solid- and transparent-doored units reported in the 2014 CRE TSD.DOE’s updated Energy Conservation standards went into 

effect in 2017; therefore, compliance with this standard is assumed for 2022 and beyond. 

2. The ENERGY STAR category is based on a shipment weighted average of solid- and transparent-doored units that are minimally compliant with ENERGY STAR v3, effective October 1, 2014. 

Units compliant with ENERGY STAR are found to be the most efficient reach-in refrigeration equipment on the market in 2022.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Installation cost for 2012 is based on NCI 2009 report that assumes a cost of $863. Installation cost for 2022 and beyond is based DOE’s 2014 CRE Final Rule and additional analysis by 

Guidehouse, which assumes an installation cost of $878 for self-contained equipment.

5. Maintenance costs after 2012 are based on DOE's CRE 2014 Final Rule TSD, which reports $35 annual preventative maintenance, per unit, per year, plus approximately $40 per linear foot, per 

year of additional repair and maintenance costs for the units characterized.

Lower annual energy use, increased installed cost compared with Reference Case 
Final

• The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT 2005) set maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per 

day, for commercial reach-in refrigerators that went into effect on January 1, 2010. The daily energy consumption is 

based on the volume of the unit (V) in ft3.

• In 2014, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for reach-in refrigerators, effective March 27, 2017. Both 

standards are reported in the table below.

• In 2013, EPA updated its ENERGY STAR specifications for reach-in refrigerators, effective March 27, 2017. These 

standards are also based on the refrigerated volume of the unit.

56

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Refrigerators

Reach-In Refrigerator 

Size

0 < V < 15 15 ≤ V < 30 30 ≤ V < 50 50 ≤ V

Solid Door (VCS.SC.M) 0.022xV+0.97 0.066xV+0.31 0.04xV+1.09 0.024xV+1.89

Glass Door (VCT.SC.M) 0.095xV+0.445 0.05xV+1.12 0.076xV+0.034 0.105xV-1.111

Equipment Class EPCA Standard Level (2010) DOE Standard Level (2017)

Solid Door (VCS.SC.M) 0.10xV+2.04 0.05xV + 1.36

Glass Door (VCT.SC.M) 0.12xV+3.34 0.1xV+0.86
Final

• Unit energy consumption for 2012 and beyond was estimated based on shipment-weighted averages by efficiency level and 

equipment class for 49 ft3 VCS.SC.M and VCT.SC.M units reported in DOE’s 2014 CRE Final Rule TSD with updated analysis 

from Guidehouse in 2016. These units were estimated to comprise approximately 85% and 15% of total reach-in refrigerator 

shipments, respectively.

• The efficiency of commercial reach-in refrigerators can be increased through the use of efficient compressors, efficient evaporator 

fans, efficient condenser fans, electric defrost, and more efficient lighting.

• After 2022, the high efficiency cases are based on solid-doored units rather than shipment-weighted averages due to the 

assumption that stakeholders will increasingly value energy conservation.

• Unit energy consumption is expected to decrease as a result of DOE’s updated energy conservation standards, as well as a 

transition to more efficient propane refrigerant due to compliance with EPA Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP).

• For this Advanced Case, the typical unit in 2020 is assumed to comply with DOE’s updated energy conservation standards for 

commercial refrigeration.

• A shipments migration from transparent- to solid-doored units is assumed for the Advanced Case.

• By 2040, the adoption of vacuum insulated panels is assumed to occur, with the aid of decreased incremental costs due to 

increased R&D funding.

• Projected installed costs for this Advanced Case are higher than the Reference Case, even assuming increased R&D funding. 

Advanced energy-saving technologies are assumed to be made financially viable for operators by increased market incentives 

such as utility efficiency rebate programs and/or carbon pricing.

• This analysis finds that with increased R&D and market incentives for energy-efficient technologies, a limit of possible 

efficiency improvements for self-contained, vapor compression refrigeration systems will be reached by 2040. 

57

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Refrigerators
Final

58

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Freezers

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 4,341 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340

Size (ft3) 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)1 6,023 5,585 5,585 4,847 4,110 4,110 4,362 3,699 3,926 3,329 3,533 2,996

Annual Energy Use / Volume (kWh/y/ft3) 123 114 114 99 84 84 89 75 80 68 72 61

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.08 1.08 1.24 1.47 1.47 1.38 1.63 1.53 1.81 1.70 2.01

Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $2,886 $2,886 $2,886 $3,175 $3,493 $3,493 $3,493 $3,842 $3,842 $4,226 $4,226 $4,649 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $3,749 $3,749 $3,749 $4,125 $4,443 $4,443 $4,443 $4,792 $4,792 $5,176 $5,176 $5,599

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $864 $864 $864 $950 $1,024 $1,024 $1,024 $1,104 $1,104 $1,193 $1,193 $1,290

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)5 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $41.70 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71

1. A 49 ft3 unit was characterized, because it was the representative size selected for DOE’s rulemaking analysis. 

2. The ENERGY STAR category was based on a solid-doored unit that is minimally compliant with ENERGY STAR v3, effective October 1, 2014.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Installation cost for 2012 and 2018 is based on DOE’s on-going CRE rulemaking, which assumes a cost of $863 for self-contained equipment and $950 for 2022 and beyond based on analysis 

from Guidehouse.

5. Maintenance costs are calculated based on a $35 per unit annual preventative maintenance cost, plus an additional $45 per linearfoot repair and maintenance cost estimated based on values 

reported in the CRE TSD.

Lower annual energy use, increased installed cost compared with Reference Case 
Final

• EPACT 2005 set maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per day, for commercial reach-in 

freezers that went into effect on January 1, 2010. The daily energy consumption is based on the volume of the unit (V) 

in ft3. 

• In March of 2017, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for commercial refrigeration equipment, including 

reach-in freezers. Both the EPCA and DOE standards are reported in the table below.

• In 2013, EPA updated its ENERGY STAR specifications for reach-in freezers, effective March 27, 2017. These standards 

are also based on the refrigerated volume of the unit.

59

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Freezers

Reach-In Freezer Size 0 < V < 15 15 ≤ V < 30 30 ≤ V < 50 50 ≤ V

Solid Door (VCS.SC.L) 0.21xV+0.9 0.12xV+2.248 0.285xV-2.703 0.142xV+4.445

Glass Door (VCT.SC.L) 0.232xV+2.36 0.232xV+2.36 0.232xV+2.36 0.232xV+2.36

Equipment Class EPCA (2010) DOE Standard Level (2017)

Solid Door (VCS.SC.L) 0.4xV+1.38 0.22xV+1.38

Transparent Door (VCT.SC.L) 0.75xV+4.10 0.29xV+2.95
Final

• The commercial reach-in freezer characterized in this report, which is the typical unit according to DOE’s 2014 CRE 

rulemaking, is a 49 cubic ft. solid two-door unit with a nominal compressor size of 4,341 Btu/h. 

• The efficiency of commercial reach-in freezers can be increased through the use of efficient compressors, efficient 

evaporator fans, efficient condenser fans, electric defrost, and more efficient lighting.

• Unit energy consumption for reach-in freezers is expected to decrease as a result of DOE’s updated energy 

conservation standards, as well as a transition to more efficient propane refrigerant due to EPA SNAP compliance. 

• The typical unit in 2020 is assumed to comply with DOE’s updated energy conservation standards for commercial 

refrigeration.

• By 2040, the adoption of vacuum insulated panels is assumed to occur, with the aid of decreased incremental costs 

due to increased R&D funding.

• Projected installed costs for this Advanced Case are higher than the Reference Case, even assuming increased R&D 

funding. Advanced energy-saving technologies are assumed to be made financially viable for operators by increased 

market incentives such as utility efficiency rebate programs.

• This analysis finds that with increased R&D and market incentives for energy-efficient technologies, a limit of 

possible efficiency improvements for self-contained, vapor compression refrigeration systems will be reached by 

2040. 

60

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Freezers
Final

61

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/hr)

1 37,820 39,422 41,024 41,024 41,024 N/A 41,024 41,024 41,024 41,024 41,024 41,024

Size (ft2

) 305 240 240 240 240 N/A 240 240 240 240 240 240

Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) 2 30,689 20,040 17,600 16,200 14,800 N/A 14,580 13,320 13,122 11,988 11,810 10,789

Annual Energy Use / Area (kWh/ft2

/yr) 101 84 73 68 62 N/A 61 56 55 50 49 45

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.53 1.74 1.89 2.07 N/A 2.10 2.30 2.34 2.56 2.60 2.84

Insulated Box Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 N/A 12 12 12 12 12 12

Compressor Average Life (yrs) 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $23,598 $19,847 $16,050 $19,847 $23,644 N/A $16,050 $23,644 $16,050 $23,644 $16,050 $23,644 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $27,012 $23,897 $20,100 $23,897 $27,694 N/A $20,100 $27,694 $20,100 $27,694 $20,100 $27,694 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/hr) $714 $606 $490 $583 $675 N/A $490 $675 $490 $675 $490 $675 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)5 $716 $740 $740 $740 $740 N/A $740 $740 $740 $740 $740 $740

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/hr) $18.93 $18.77 $18.04 $18.04 $18.04 N/A $18.04 $18.04 $18.04 $18.04 $18.04 $18.04

1. Assumes medium temperature units are refrigerators.

2. Average unit energy consumption was adapted from the DOE CRE 2016 report by assuming electronically commutated motor (ECM) evaporator fan motors are required for Energy Policy & 

Conservation Act (EPCA) compliance, as well as ECM condenser fan motors.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Installation cost for 2012 and beyond is based on DOE’s Walk-In Technical Support Document (TSD).

5. Maintenance cost includes checking and maintaining refrigerant charge levels, checking settings, and cleaning heat exchanger coils.

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

62

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

• For 2012 and beyond, the unit characterized was a walk-in storage cooler, based on DOE’s WICF TSD.

• A typical walk-in refrigerator includes:

- insulated floor and wall panels

- merchandising doors, shelving, and lighting (not included in cost estimate)

- semi-hermetic reciprocating compressor

- refrigerant (R404A)

- condenser

- evaporator

• Energy consumption is assumed to scale with the AWEF (Annual Walk-in Energy Factor), defined as the ratio of total 

heat removed from the refrigerated volume per year to the total electrical energy input of refrigeration systems over 

the same time period. 

• The installation cost consists of freight and delivery costs in addition to on-site assembly.

• This Advanced Case assumes a projected 10% decrease in energy consumption over the Reference Case due to 

adoption of more efficient refrigerants. 
Final

63

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 included prescriptive standards for walk-in refrigerators 

(coolers) that went into effect in 2009. These prescriptive standards, which are included in the analysis for all units for 

2012 and beyond, state that all walk-in refrigerators manufactured after January 1, 2009, must:

• For 2012 and beyond

• have automatic door closers 

• have strip doors, spring hinged doors, or other method of minimizing infiltration when doors are open

• contain wall, ceiling, and door insulation of at least R–25, except for glazed portions of doors and structural members

• use electronically commutated motors or three-phase motors (for evaporator fan motors of under 1 horsepower and 

less than 460 volts)

• use electronically commutated motors, permanent split capacitor-type motors, or three-phase motors (for condenser 

fan motors of under 1 horsepower)

• use light sources with an efficacy of 40 lumens per watt or more, including ballast losses (if any), except that light 

sources with an efficacy of 40 lumens per watt or less, including ballast losses (if any), may be used in conjunction 

with a timer or device that turns off the lights within 15 minutes of when the walk-in refrigerator is not occupied by 

people.
Final

In 2014, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for walk-in coolers and freezers. Minimum AWEF (Annual 

Walk-In Energy Factor) was set for refrigeration systems, as well as upper limits on energy consumption attributable to 

passage, freight, and display doors. DOE elected not to set new standards for the R-value of Walk-In Panels.

64

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR WALK-IN COOLERS AND WALK-IN FREEZERS

Class descriptor Class Standard lev el

Refrigeration Systems Minimum AWEF (Btu/W-h)

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Indoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ......... DC.M.I, <9,000 ... 5.61

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Indoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ......... DC.M.I, ≥ 9,000 ... 5.61

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Outdoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ...... DC.M.O, <9,000 ...7.60

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Outdoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ...... DC.M.O,≥9,000 ...7.60

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Indoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............... DC.L.I, <9,000 ..... 5.93 ⋅ 10¥5 ⋅Q + 2.33

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Indoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............... DC.L.I, ≥9,000 .... 3.10

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Outdoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............. DC.L.O, <9,000 .. 2.30 ⋅ 10¥4 ⋅Q + 2.73

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Outdoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............. DC.L.O, ≥9,000 .. 4.79

Multiplex Condensing, Medium Temperature ........................................................................... MC.M .................. 10.89

Multiplex Condensing, Low Temperature ................................................................................. MC.L ................... 6.57

Panels Minimum R-v alue (h-ft2-°F/Btu)

Structural Panel, Medium Temperature .................................................................................... SP.M .................. 25

Structural Panel, Low Temperature .......................................................................................... SP.L ................... 32

Floor Panel, Low Temperature ................................................................................................. FP.L .................... 28

Non-Display Doors Maximum energy consumption

(kWh/day) **

Passage Door, Medium Temperature ...................................................................................... PD.M .................. 0.05 ⋅And + 1.7

Passage Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................. PD.L ................... 0.14 ⋅And + 4.8

Freight Door, Medium Temperature ......................................................................................... FD.M .................. 0.04 ⋅And + 1.9

Freight Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................... FD.L ................... 0.12 ⋅And + 5.6

Display Doors Maximum Energy Consumption (kWh/day) †

Display Door, Medium Temperature ......................................................................................... DD.M .................. 0.04 ⋅Add + 0.41

Display Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................... DD.L ................... 0.15 ⋅Add + 0.29
Final

65

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 22,114 23,500 23,500 23,500 23,500 N/A 23,500 23,500 23,500 23,500 23,500 23,500

Size (ft2

) 1 172 161 161 161 161 N/A 161 161 161 161 161 161

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)2 22,862 17,600 21,400 21,400 21,400 N/A 19,260 19,260 17,334 17,334 15,601 15,601

Annual Energy Use / Area (kWh/ft2

/y) 133 109 133 133 133 N/A 120 120 108 108 97 97

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.30 1.07 1.07 1.07 N/A 1.19 1.19 1.32 1.32 1.47 1.47

Insulated Box Average Life (years) 12 12 12 12 12 N/A 12 12 12 12 12 12

Compressor Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $22,008 $21,950 $21,950 $22,850 $23,750 N/A $22,850 $23,750 $22,850 $23,750 $22,850 $23,750 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $24,058 $23,950 $23,950 $24,850 $25,750 N/A $24,850 $25,750 $24,850 $25,750 $24,850 $25,750 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $1,088 $1,019 $1,019 $1,057 $1,096 N/A $1,057 $1,096 $1,057 $1,096 $1,057 $1,096 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)5 $741 $741 $741 $740 $741 N/A $740 $741 $740 $741 $740 $741

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $33.51 $31.53 $31.53 $31.49 $31.53 N/A $31.49 $31.53 $31.49 $31.53 $31.49 $31.53

1. Based on DOE's 2014 WICF Final Rule TSD and additional analysis by Guidehouse, the average floor area for a walk-in storage freezer as 161 ft2.

2. EISA 2007 includes prescriptive standards for walk-in freezers that went into effect in 2009. All units for 2012 and beyond include these prescriptive standards. Units for 2022 and beyond are 

characterized using data from DOE’s 2014 WICF rulemaking. All units for 2022 and beyond are assumed to comply with this standard.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Installation cost for 2012 and beyond is based on DOE’s WICF TSD and additional analysis by Guidehouse. 

5. Maintenance cost includes checking and maintaining refrigerant charge levels, checking settings, and cleaning heat exchanger coils.

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

66

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

• The commercial walk-in freezer characterized in this report is a walk-in storage freezer with an area of 161 ft2.

• A typical walk-in freezer includes:

- insulated floor, door, and wall panels

- semi-hermetic reciprocating compressor

- refrigerant (R404A)

- condenser

- evaporator

• Energy consumption is assumed to scale with the AWEF (Annual Walk-in Energy Factor), defined as the ratio of total 

heat removed from the refrigerated volume per year to the total electrical energy input of refrigeration systems over the 

same time period. 

• The installation cost consists of freight and delivery costs in addition to on-site assembly.

• This Advanced Case assumes a projected 10% decrease in energy consumption over the Reference Case due to 

adoption of more efficient refrigerants. 
Final

67

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

EISA 2007 included prescriptive standards for walk-in freezers that went into effect in 2009. These prescriptive standards, 

which are included in all units for 2011 and beyond, state that all walk-in freezers manufactured after January 1, 2009, 

must:

• have automatic door closers 

• have strip doors, spring hinged doors, or other method of minimizing infiltration when doors are open

• contain wall, ceiling, and door insulation of at least R–32, except for glazed portions of doors and structural members

• contain floor insulation of at least R–28

• use electronically commutated motors or three-phase motors (for evaporator fan motors of under 1 horsepower and 

less than 460 volts)

• use electronically commutated motors, permanent split capacitor-type motors, or three-phase motors (for condenser 

fan motors of under 1 horsepower)

• use light sources with an efficacy of 40 lumens per watt or more, including ballast losses (if any), except that light 

sources with an efficacy of 40 lumens per watt or less, including ballast losses (if any), may be used in conjunction 

with a timer or device that turns off the lights within 15 minutes of when the walk-in freezer is not occupied by 

people.
Final

68

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

In 2014, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for walk-in coolers and freezers. Minimum AWEF (Annual 

Walk-in Energy Factor) was set for refrigeration systems, as well as upper limits on energy consumption attributable to 

passage, freight, and display doors. DOE elected not to set new standards for the R-value of Walk-in Panels.

ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR WALK-IN COOLERS AND WALK-IN FREEZERS

Class descriptor Class Standard lev el

Refrigeration Systems Minimum AWEF (Btu/W-h)

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Indoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ......... DC.M.I, <9,000 ... 5.61

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Indoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ......... DC.M.I, ≥ 9,000 ... 5.61

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Outdoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ...... DC.M.O, <9,000 ...7.60

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Outdoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ...... DC.M.O,≥9,000 ...7.60

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Indoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............... DC.L.I, <9,000 ..... 5.93 ⋅ 10¥5 ⋅Q + 2.33

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Indoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............... DC.L.I, ≥9,000 .... 3.10

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Outdoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............. DC.L.O, <9,000 .. 2.30 ⋅ 10¥4 ⋅Q + 2.73

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Outdoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............. DC.L.O, ≥9,000 .. 4.79

Multiplex Condensing, Medium Temperature ........................................................................... MC.M .................. 10.89

Multiplex Condensing, Low Temperature ................................................................................. MC.L ................... 6.57

Panels Minimum R-v alue (h-ft2-°F/Btu)

Structural Panel, Medium Temperature .................................................................................... SP.M .................. 25

Structural Panel, Low Temperature .......................................................................................... SP.L ................... 32

Floor Panel, Low Temperature ................................................................................................. FP.L .................... 28

Non-Display Doors Maximum energy consumption

(kWh/day) **

Passage Door, Medium Temperature ...................................................................................... PD.M .................. 0.05 ⋅And + 1.7

Passage Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................. PD.L ................... 0.14 ⋅And + 4.8

Freight Door, Medium Temperature ......................................................................................... FD.M .................. 0.04 ⋅And + 1.9

Freight Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................... FD.L ................... 0.12 ⋅And + 5.6

Display Doors Maximum Energy Consumption (kWh/day) †

Display Door, Medium Temperature ......................................................................................... DD.M .................. 0.04 ⋅Add + 0.41

Display Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................... DD.L ................... 0.15 ⋅Add + 0.29
Final

69

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Ice Machines

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR6 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Output (pounds [lbs] per day) 1 300 641 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h)2 1963 4194 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580

Water Use per Hundred Pounds 

(gal/hundred lbs)3 20 25 25 20 15 15 20 15 20 15 20 15

Energy Use per Hundred Pounds 

(kWh/hundred lbs) 7.7 7.5 7.1 5.8 4.8 4.8 5.8 4.8 5.8 4.8 5.8 4.8

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)4 3,185 2,502 1,675 1,478 1,190 1,190 1,330 1,071 1,197 964 1,077 868

Indexed Annual Efficiency5 1.00 1.27 1.90 2.15 2.68 2.68 2.39 2.97 2.66 3.30 2.96 3.67

Average Life (years) 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $2,146 $2,616 $2,946 $3,020 $3,368 $3,368 $3,020 $3,368 $3,020 $3,368 $3,020 $3,368 

Total Installed Cost (with Bin) $2,441 $3,626 $3,276 $3,350 $3,737 $3,737 $3,350 $3,737 $3,350 $3,737 $3,350 $3,737 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $1,244 $865 $715 $732 $816 $816 $732 $816 $732 $816 $732 $816 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)7 $826 $826 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $421 $197 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175

1. Based on the average output from the Compliance Certification Database and values within 2022 Automatic Commercial Ice Maker (ACIM) TSD.

2. Defined as the average heat load to remove the latent and sensible heat required to freeze the daily output capacity of ice.

3. Water use refers to potable water.

4. EPACT 2005 energy standards went into effect in 2010. The 2015 low values are based on this standard. In 2014, DOE set new standards for commercial ice machines, with compliance required by 

2018. The unit characterized for 2012 and beyond uses data from this rulemaking. All units for 2020 and beyond are assumed to comply with the updated standard.

5. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

6. The ENERGY STAR category is based on minimum compliance with the ENERGY STAR v3.0 standard, which went into effect on January28, 2018. According to this analysis, ENERGY STAR 

certification is typical for the small air-cooled ice-making head (IMH) unit characterized.

7. Maintenance cost is based on the average cost of equipment within the 700 lb/day output range and includes cleaning and maintaining refrigerant levels, replacing filters, checking water 

distribution lines for leaks, cleaning, sanitizing, and descaling the bin and water system. Maintenance cost decreases as the size of the ice machine (i.e. output) decreases.

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

70

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Ice Machines

• Commercial ice machines are typically integrated with an insulated ice storage bin or mounted on top of a separate 

storage bin. The retail equipment cost includes the ice making head and the integrated storage bin. Commercial ice 

machine condensers are either air-cooled or water-cooled. Approximately 90% of all units are the air-cooled type.

• Commercial ice machine maintenance includes periodic cleaning (every 2 to 6 weeks) to remove lime and scale and 

sanitizing to kill bacteria. Some ice machines are self-cleaning/sanitizing.

• ENERGY STAR® updated its maximum energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per 100 pounds of ice, for aircooled ice machines that went into effect on January 28, 2018. These efficiency levels are based on the harvest rate, in 

pounds per 24 hours. (H). Water-cooled ice machines are not eligible for ENERGY STAR certification.

• For this Advanced Case, a 10% reduction in energy consumption is projected over the Reference Case due to the 

adoption of more efficient refrigerants such as propane, which, while not currently required by EPA SNAP, are a 

source of possible efficiency improvements.

ENERGY STAR Requirements for Air-Cooled Batch-Type Ice Makers

Equipment Type

Applicable Ice 

Harvest Rate Range 

(lbs of ice/24 hrs)

Energy 

Consumption Rate 

(kWh/100 lbs ice)

Potable Water Use 

(gal/hundred lbs

ice)

IMH 200 ≤ H ≤ 1600 ≤ 37.72 * H -0.298 ≤ 20.0

RCU

400 ≤ H ≤ 1600 ≤ 22.95 * H -0.258 + 

1.00 ≤ 20.0

1600 ≤ H ≤ 4000 ≤ -0.00011 * H + 4.60 ≤ 20.0

SCU 50 ≤ H ≤ 450 ≤ 48.66 * H -0.326 + 

0.08 ≤ 25.0

ENERGY STAR Requirements for Air-Cooled Continuous-Type Ice Makers

Equipment Type Energy Consumption Rate 

(kWh/hundred lbs ice)

Potable Water Use 

(gal/hundred lbs ice)

IMH ≤ 9.18 * H -0.057 ≤ 15.0

RCU ≤ 6.00 * H -0.162 + 3.50 ≤ 15.0

SCU ≤ 59.45 * H -0.349 + 0.08 ≤ 15.0
Final

71

EPACT 2005 issued standard levels for commercial ice machines with capacities between 50 pounds and 2500 pounds per 

24-hour period that are manufactured or sold in the United States on or after January 1, 2010. The energy consumption is 

based on the harvest rate in pounds per 24 hours (H). In 2015, DOE finalized new standards for ACIMs extending 

coverage to flake, nugget, and tube-type machines and to capacities up to 4,000 pounds per 24 hours.

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Ice Machines

Water use is for the condenser only and does not include potable water used to make ice.

Equipment Type Type of

Cooling

Harvest Rate

(lbs ice/24 hrs)

Maximum Energy Use

(kWh/hundred lbs ice)

Maximum Condenser Water

Use (gal/hundred lbs ice)

Ice Making Head

Water

<500 7.80-0.0055 H 200-0.022 H

≥500 and <1,436 5.58-0.0011 H 200-0.022 H

≥1,436 4.0 200-0.022 H

Air

<450 10.26-0.0086 H Not Applicable

≥450 6.89-0.0011 H Not Applicable

Remote Condensing

(but not remote compressor)

Air

<1,000 8.85-0.0038 H Not Applicable

≥1,000 5.10 Not Applicable

Remote Condensing

and Remote Compressor

Air

<934 8.85-0.0038 H Not Applicable

≥934 5.3 Not Applicable

Self Contained

Water

<200 11.40-0.019 H 191-0.0315 H

≥200 7.60 191-0.0315 H

Air

<175 18.0-0.0469 H Not Applicable

≥175 9.80 Not Applicable
Final

2014 DOE Standards

72

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Ice Machines

Energy Conservation Standards for Batch-Type Automatic Commercial Ice Makers 

Effective January 2018

Equipment Type Type of Cooling Harvest Rate

lb ice/24 hours

Maximum Energy 

Use

kWh/100 lb ice*

Maximum 

Condenser Water 

Use

gal/100 lb ice**

Ice-Making Head Water

<300 6.88 - 0.0055H 200 - 0.022H

300 and <850 5.80 - 0.00191H 200 - 0.022H

850 and <1,500 4.42 - 0.00028H 200 - 0.022H

1500 and <2,500 4.0 200 - 0.022H

2500 and <4,000 4.0 145

Ice-Making Head Air

<300 10 - 0.01233H Not Applicable

300 and <800 7.05 - 0.0025H Not Applicable

800 and <1500 5.55 - 0.00063H Not Applicable

1500 and <4,000 4.61 Not Applicable

Remote Condensing 

(but not remote 

compressor)

Air

50 and <1,000 7.97 - 0.00342H Not Applicable

1,000 and <4,000 4.55 Not Applicable

Remote Condensing 

and Remote 

Compressor

Air

<942 7.97 - 0.00342H Not Applicable

942 and <4,000 4.75 Not Applicable

Self-Contained Water

<200 9.5 - 0.019H 191 - 0.0315H

200 and <2,500 5.7 191 - 0.0315H

2500 and <4,000 5.7 112

Self-Contained Air

<110 14.79 - 0.0469H Not Applicable

110 and <200 12.42 - 0.02533H Not Applicable

200 and <4,000 7.35 Not Applicable

Energy Conservation Standards for Continuous-Type Automatic Commercial Ice Makers 

Effective January 2018

Equipment Type Type of Cooling Harvest Rate

lb ice/24 hours

Maximum Energy 

Use

kWh/100 lb ice*

Maximum 

Condenser Water 

Use

gal/100 lb ice**

Ice-Making Head Water

<801 6.48 - 0.00267H 180 - 0.0198H

801 and <2,500 4.34 180 - 0.0198H

2,500 and <4,000 4.34 130.5

Ice-Making Head Air

<310 9.19 - 0.00629H Not Applicable

310 and <820 8.23 - 0.0032H Not Applicable

820 and <4,000 5.61 Not Applicable

Remote 

Condensing (but 

not remote 

compressor)

Air

<800 9.7 - 0.0058H Not Applicable

800 and <4,000 5.06 Not Applicable

Remote 

Condensing and 

Remote 

Compressor

Air

<800 9.9 - 0.0058H Not Applicable

800 and <4,000 5.26 Not Applicable

Self-Contained Water

<900 7.6 - 0.00302H 153 - 0.0252H

900 and <2,500 4.88 153 - 0.0252H

2500 and <4,000 4.88 90

Self-Contained Air

<200 14.22 - 0.03H Not Applicable

200 and <700 9.47 - 0.00624H Not Applicable

700 and <4,000 5.1 Not Applicable
Final

73

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Beverage Merchandisers

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 4,689 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700

Size (ft3

) 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y) 1,829 1,635 1,380 1,141 902 902 1,141 902 1,084 857 1,030 814

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/ft3

/y)1 68 73 55 35 26 26 35 26 35 26 35 26

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.12 1.33 1.60 2.03 2.03 1.60 2.03 1.69 2.13 1.78 2.25

Average Life (years) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $2,382 $2,051 $1,710 $2,762 $3,332 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $2,382 $2,051 $1,710 $2,762 $3,332 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $508 $436 $364 $588 $709 $709 $588 $709 $588 $709 $588 $709 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $108 $108 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $23.03 $22.98 $20.21 $20.21 $20.11 $20.11 $20.21 $20.11 $20.21 $20.11 $20.21 $20.11

1. EPACT 2005 energy conservation standards went into effect in 2010. In 2015, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for commercial refrigeration equipment, including transparentdoored refrigerators with pull-down capability. Compliance with this standard is required by 2017. Units characterized for 2018 and beyond use data reported in this rulemaking’s TSD. Units 

sold in 2022 and beyond are assumed to comply with this updated standard.

2. The ENERGY STAR category characterizes a unit that is compliant with ENERGY STAR v4, effective March 2017. This standard does not separately define units with pull-down capability.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use). 

4. Beverage merchandisers are shipped ready to be plugged in, so installation costs are assumed to be negligible.

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

74

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Beverage Merchandisers

• EPACT 2005 sets maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per day, for commercial refrigerators with 

transparent doors and self-contained condensing unit designed for pull-down temperature applications (i.e., beverage 

merchandisers) and went into effect on January 1, 2010. 

• In 2014, DOE updated its energy consumption standards for commercial refrigeration equipment, including beverage 

merchandisers, effective March 27, 2015. Both the DOE and EPCA standards are reported below. 

• In 2013, EPA updated its ENERGY STAR specifications for glass-doored commercial refrigerators, which can be used as 

beverage merchandisers, effective October 1, 2014. These standards are also based on the volume of the unit (V). Note that 

ENERGY STAR does not have a separate equipment class for units with pull-down capability. 

Equipment Type EPCA (2010) DOE Standards (2017)

Beverage Merchandisers 

(PD.SC.M)

0.126xV + 3.51 0.11xV+0.81

Beverage 

Merchandiser Size 0 < V < 15 15 ≤ V < 30 30 ≤ V < 50 50 ≤ V

Glass Door 0.118*V + 1.382 ≤ 0.140*V + 1.050 ≤ 0.088*V + 2.625 ≤ 0.110*V + 1.500
Final

75

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Beverage Merchandisers

• The beverage merchandiser characterized in this report, which is the typical unit according to DOE’s 2014 CRE 

rulemaking and additional analysis by Guidehouse, is a 27 cubic foot cooler with a single hinged, transparent door, 

bright lighting, and shelving with a nominal compressor size of 4,700 Btu/h. 

• The efficiency of beverage merchandisers can be increased through the use of more efficient compressors, 

fluorescent lighting with electronic ballasts, LED lighting, and improved insulation.

• For the Reference Case, beverage merchandisers are assumed to be mature technologies with few technology 

advancements in the coming years that would dramatically improve the efficiency. 

• For this Advanced Case, the typical unit in 2030 is assumed to comply with DOE’s updated energy conservation 

standards for commercial refrigeration

• By 2040, the adoption of vacuum insulated panels is assumed to occur, with the aid of decreased incremental 

costs due to increased R&D funding

• Beverage merchandisers may transition from HFC to more efficient propane.

• Projected installed costs for this Advanced Case are the same as the Reference Case, assuming increased R&D 

funding. Advanced energy-saving technologies are assumed to be made financially viable for operators by 

increased market incentives such as utility efficiency rebate programs and/or carbon pricing.

• This analysis finds that with increased R&D and market incentives for energy efficiency technologies, a limit of 

possible efficiency improvements for self-contained, vapor compression refrigeration systems will be reached by 

2040 and a 5% decrease in energy use from 2030 to 2040. 
Final

76

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 1,810 1,707 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810

Can Capacity 470 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500

Size (ft3

) 26 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)1 1,632 1,550 1,550 1,531 1,443 1,443 1,455 1,371 1,382 1,302 1,313 1,237

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/ft3

/y) 63 44 44 44 41 41 42 39 39 37 38 35

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.07 1.13 1.13 1.12 1.19 1.18 1.25 1.24 1.32

Average Life (years) 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $3,209 $2,553 $3,059 $3,272 $3,520 $3,520 $3,272 $3,520 $3,272 $3,520 $3,272 $3,520 

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $3,320 $2,705 $3,276 $3,489 $3,737 $3,737 $3,489 $3,737 $3,489 $3,737 $3,489 $3,737 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $1,834 $1,585 $1,810 $1,928 $2,065 $2,065 $1,928 $2,065 $1,928 $2,065 $1,928 $2,065

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)4 $270 $270 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $149 $149 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184

1. Energy use for 2018 and beyond is estimated based on DOE’s 2020 BVM Final Rule and the 2022 Compliance Certification Database.

2. The ENERGY STAR category assumes units are compliant with the ENERGY STAR v4 standard because combination units are currentlynot separately defined by ENERGY STAR. This 

standard went into effect on April 29, 2020. Our analysis finds ENERGY STAR certified equipment to be the most efficient currently available on the market.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Maintenance cost includes preventative maintenance costs such as checking and maintaining refrigerant charge levels, cleaningheat exchanger coils, and an annualized cost for 

refurbishments/remanufacturing. 

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

77

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

• DOE set federal energy efficiency standards for refrigerated vending machines. These standards set maximum daily energy 

consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per day, for commercial refrigerated vending machines manufactured or sold in the 

United States on or after August 31, 2012. The daily energy consumption is based on the volume of the unit (V).

• In December 2015, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for beverage vending machines and defined two new 

product classes for combination vending machines. The energy conservation standard remains the same in the updated 

2022 technical support document for vending machines. Compliance with these standards was required by 2019. For this 

analysis, compliance with these updated standards is assumed for equipment sold in 2022 and beyond. The updated 

standards and DOE equipment definitions are listed in the table below.

Equipment Type Maximum Daily Energy Consumption

Class A (Transparent-Front) MDEC= 0.052 × V + 2.43

Class B (Solid-Front) MDEC = 0.052 × V + 2.20 

Combination A MDEC = 0.086 × V + 2.66

Combination B MDEC = 0.111 × V + 2.04
Final

78

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

Equipment Class Maximum daily energy consumption (kilowatt-hours per day)

Class A – a refrigerated bottled or canned beverage vending machine that is not a 

combination vending machine and in which 25% or more of the surface area on the 

front side of the beverage vending machine is transparent

MDEC = 0.04836 x V + 2.2599

Class B – any refrigerated bottled or canned beverage vending machine that is not 

considered to be Class A and is not a combination vending machine MDEC = 0.04576 x V+1.936

Combination A – a combination vending machine where 25% or more of the 

surface area on the front side of the beverage vending machine is transparent MDEC = 0.07998 x V + 2.4738

Combination B – a combination vending machine that is not considered to be 

Combination A MDEC = 0.09768 x V + 1.7952

ENERGY STAR® updated its maximum daily energy consumption efficiency levels, also in kilowatt-hours per day, for 

refrigerated vending machines that went into effect on April 29, 2020. These efficiency levels are based on refrigerated 

volume.
Final

79

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

• DOE set federal energy efficiency standards for refrigerated vending machines in 2009. These standards set maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kWh/day, 

for commercial refrigerated vending machines manufactured and/or sold in the United States on or after August 31, 2012. The daily energy consumption is based on 

the volume of the unit (V).

• Refrigerated Vending Machines that are fully-cooled (Type A) ≤ 0.055*V + 2.56

• Refrigerated Vending Machines that are zone-cooled (Type B) ≤ 0.073*V + 3.16

• ENERGY STAR® updated its maximum daily energy consumption efficiency levels, also in kWh/day, for refrigerated vending machines, which went into effect on 

March 1, 2013. These efficiency levels are based on refrigerated volume.

• Currently, stakeholders such as Coca Cola have indicated a preference for CO2 refrigerant, which is less efficient. However, this Advanced Case scenario assumes 

a shift to more efficient propane for cost and energy consumption projections due to the superior efficiency of propane refrigerant. 

• By 2040, the adoption of vacuum insulated panels is assumed to occur, with the aid of decreased incremental costs due to increased R&D funding

• Projected installed costs for this Advanced Case are higher than the Reference Case, even assuming increased R&D funding. Advanced energy-saving 

technologies are assumed to be made financially viable for operators by increased market incentives such as utility efficiency rebate programs and/or carbon 

pricing.

• This analysis finds that with increased R&D and market incentives for energy efficiency technologies, a limit of possible efficiency improvements for selfcontained, vapor compression refrigeration systems will be reached by 2040. 

Equipment Type Maximum Daily Energy 

Consumption

Low Power Mode Requirement

Class A (Transparent-Front) MDEC= 0.0523 x V + 2.432 Hard-wired controls and/or software capable 

of placing the machine into a low power 

mode during periods of extended inactivity 

while still connected to its power source Class B (Solid-Front) MDEC = 0.0657 x V + 2.844 
Final

80

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

Equipment Class Maximum daily energy consumption (kilowatt hours per day)

Class A – a refrigerated bottled or canned beverage vending machine that is not a 

combination vending machine and in which 25 percent or more of the surface area 

on the front side of the beverage vending machine is transparent

MDEC = 0.052 x V + 2.43

Class B – any refrigerated bottled or canned beverage vending machine that is not 

considered to be Class A and is not a combination vending machine MDEC = 0.052 x V + 2.20

Combination A – a combination vending machine where 25 percent or more of the 

surface area on the front side of the beverage vending machine is transparent MDEC = 0.086 x V + 2.66

Combination B – a combination vending machine that is not considered to be 

Combination A MDEC = 0.111 x V + 2.04

In December 2015, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for beverage vending machines, and defined two new 

product classes for combination vending machines Compliance with these standards is required by 2019. For this analysis, 

compliance with these updated standards is assumed for equipment sold in 2020 and beyond. The updated standards and 

DOE equipment definitions are listed in the table below.
Final

81

Commercial Ventilation 
Final

82

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Constant Air Volume

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average3

Low4,5 Typical4,6 High4,7 ENERGY 

STAR Typical4,6 High4,7 Typical4,6 High4,7 Typical4,6 High4,7

System Airflow (CFM) 15,000 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 N/A 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300

System Fan Power (kW) 11.56 11.56 11.56 10.98 10.78 N/A 10.98 10.78 10.98 10.78 10.98 10.78

Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) 0.771 0.709 0.709 0.674 0.661 N/A 0.674 0.661 0.674 0.661 0.674 0.661

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)1

43,924 23,038 23,038 21,886 20,792 N/A 20,792 19,752 19,752 18,765 18,765 17,826

Average Life (years) 35 35 35 35 35 N/A 35 35 35 35 35 35

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2

$80,288 $83,083 $83,083 $86,901 $90,651 N/A $86,901 $90,651 $86,901 $90,651 $86,901 $90,651 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 N/A $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand 

CFM) $5,353 $5,097 $5,097 $5,331 $5,561 N/A $5,331 $5,561 $5,331 $5,561 $5,331 $5,561 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/thousand CFM) $70 $65 $65 $65 $65 N/A $65 $65 $65 $65 $65 $65 

1. Based on 3800 operating hours per year (ADL, 1999) and typical zone air flow requirement profile (ASHRAE S45.11-2012)

2. Total installed cost of 16,300 CFM constant air volume (CAV) air handling unit (AHU) and hypothetical supply ductwork layout

3. Based on ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 fan power limit (Table 6.5.3.1.1-1) with no pressure drop adjustment. Assumed 80% motor load and 91% motor efficiency

4. ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 Section 6.5.3.2 require minimum two-speed fan control (no longer always constant volume).

5. Two-speed variable frequency drive (VFD)

6. Modulating VFD

7. Modulating custom engineered VFD

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

83

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Constant Air Volume

• Constant air volume (CAV) ventilation systems are common, inexpensive, air-side HVAC systems that operate in response to a single control zone. Historically, 

these systems provide a constant flow rate of air (typically a mix of recirculated and outside air) and adjust the supply temperature of that air in order to maintain 

the space temperature setpoint. Beginning with ASHRAE 90.1-2013 and continued in ASHRAE 90.1-2019, new CAV ventilation systems were mandated to have at 

least two fan speed settings with the requirement of a maximum 40% power at 66% flow. Systems with variable speed fans are increasingly popular, making the 

term “constant air volume” somewhat of a misnomer for this system type. This analysis examines only the fan energy of the CAV system.

• There is movement in the industry and in energy codes to reduce fan power. ASHRAE 90.1 includes fan power limits for CAV systems. Fan power can be 

minimized through good design practice (efficient duct layout, low pressure drop ductwork, filters, coils), proper fan selection, and high efficiency type fans. 

ASHRAE 90.1-2019 now requires a minimum fan efficiency grade (FEG, based on AMCA 205-12: Energy Efficiency Classification for Fans) of 67 and a design 

operating fan efficiency within 15% of the maximum fan total efficiency. There are exceptions to this requirement, including packaged systems such as the CAV 

system type considered here. Still the fan power limits are expected to become more stringent, and fan efficiency will become more important throughout the 

industry.

• The unit characterized in this report is a 16,300 CFM CAV system. The average commercial building is approximately 16,300 square feet (CBECS 2018). Assuming 

1 CFM is needed per square foot of floor area results in a 16,300 CFM air handling unit.

• A 16,300 CFM CAV packaged indoor air handling unit with cooling and heating coils can be installed for approximately $71,829 (RS Means 2022). Ductwork 

would cost approximately $9,272 additional ($81,101 total). A two-speed motor (estimated $500 incremental cost) and variable frequency drive (estimated $5,800) 

add cost. Custom engineered variable frequency drives (estimated $9,550) and premium efficiency motors (estimated additional $1,500) add an additional cost to 

the system.

• Annual maintenance cost assumes 8 hours worth of labor by a technician to perform the necessary tasks (e.g., filter replacement, draining condenser water, etc.)

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a basis for most state energy codes, limits the fan power (brake HP or nameplate HP) for CAV systems. The 2016 version 

of Standard 90.1 was used to represent the 2018 minimum efficiency level (state energy codes typically refer to older versions of Standard 90.1 due to code 

revision cycles).

• Fan energy is affected by several factors, including fan type (e.g., centrifugal, axial), fan blade shape (e.g., forward-curved, backward-curved, backward-inclined, 

airfoil), drive type (belt or direct), configuration (plenum or housed centrifugal), system effects, duct design, filter and coil pressure drops, motor efficiency, and 

speed and flow control. 

• For this Advanced Case, the projections from 2030 to 2050 for system fan power and annual fan energy use assume a 5% improvement per decade based on 

the assumption that use of variable frequency drives and incremental improvements in technology will increase.
Final

84

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Variable Air Volume

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average3

Low4 Typical5 High6 ENERGY 

STAR Typical6 High6,7 Typical6,7 High6,7 Typical6,7 High6,7

System Airflow (CFM) 15,000 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 N/A 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300

System Fan Power (kW) 15.99 15.99 15.99 15.99 15.99 N/A 15.99 15.19 15.99 15.19 15.99 15.19

Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) 1.066 1.066 0.981 0.981 0.981 N/A 0.981 0.932 0.981 0.932 0.981 0.932

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/yr)1

24,699 24,082 24,082 22,878 21,734 N/A 21,734 20,647 20,647 19,615 19,615 18,634

Average Life (yrs) 28 28 28 28 28 N/A 28 28 28 28 28 28

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2

$103,327 $110,414 $118,814 $124,495 $124,995 N/A $124,495 $124,995 $124,495 $124,995 $124,495 $124,995 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 N/A $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/1000 CFM) $6,888 $6,774 $7,289 $7,638 $7,668 N/A $7,638 $7,668 $7,638 $7,668 $7,638 $7,668 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/1000 

CFM) $70 $65 $65 $65 $65 N/A $65 $65 $65 $65 $65 $65 

1. Based on 3800 operating hours per year (ADL, 1999) and typical zone air flow requirement profile (ASHRAE S45.11-2012)

2. Total installed cost of 16,300 CFM VAV AHU, VFD, (10) VAV boxes, (10) VAV controllers with associated space temperature sensor, and hypothetical supply ductwork layout

3. Based on ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 fan power limit (Table 6.5.3.1.1-1) with no pressure drop adjustment. Assumed 80% motor load and 91% motor efficiency

4. ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 Section 6.5.3.2 minimum power-flow requirement

5. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 fan power limit and typical VAV power-flow relationship for 40%-100% flow

6. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 fan power limit and typical VAV power-flow relationship for 30%-100% flow

7. High aerodynamic efficiency fan

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

85

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Variable Air Volume

• Variable air volume (VAV) ventilation systems are the most common multi-zone system type specified today for conditioning commercial buildings. These systems 

provide conditioned air to multiple zone terminal units (VAV boxes) that use dampers to modulate the amount of cool air to each zone. An individual zone 

thermostat controls the VAV box damper to allow more or less cooling. If a zone requires heating, then the VAV box provides the minimum flow rate and typically 

includes a reheat coil to meet the space temperature setpoint. As VAV box dampers close in the system, a variable frequency drive reduces fan speed and flow 

continuously to meet current requirements.

• This analysis examines only the fan energy of the VAV system. VAV systems vary fan speed and flow to meet space conditioning requirements; minimum flow 

settings apply for DX cooling stages and gas furnace heating stages. Most hours of operation are much lower than full speed, and fan power varies with the cube of 

fan speed according to fan affinity laws. The 2012 ASHRAE Handbook: HVAC Systems and Equipment (p. 45.11) provided the typical flow profile used for this 

analysis. The unit characterized in this report is a 16,300 CFM VAV system. 

• There is movement in the industry and in energy codes to reduce fan power. ASHRAE 90.1 includes fan power limits for VAV systems. Fan power can be minimized 

through good design practice (efficient duct layout, low pressure drop ductwork, filters, coils), proper fan selection, and high efficiency type fans. ASHRAE 90.1-

2019 now requires a minimum fan efficiency grade (FEG, based on AMCA 205-12: Energy Efficiency Classification for Fans) of 67 and a design operating fan 

efficiency within 15% of the maximum fan total efficiency. There are exceptions to this requirement, including packaged systems such as the VAV system type 

considered here. Still the fan power limits are expected to become more stringent, and fan efficiency will become more important throughout the industry.

• A 16,300 CFM VAV packaged indoor air handling unit with cooling and heating coils can be installed for approximately $82,023 (RS Means 2022). Ductwork and (10) 

VAV boxes with reheat would cost approximately an additional $28,272. (10) VAV controllers and the associated space temperature sensor would cost approximately 

$8,400 ($118,695 total). A 15 hp variable frequency drive (estimated $5,800) is an additional cost.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a basis for most state energy codes, limits the fan power for VAV systems (brake HP or nameplate HP). The 2016 version of 

Standard 90.1 was used to represent the 2018 minimum efficiency level (state energy codes typically refer to older versions of Standard 90.1 due to code revision 

cycles).

• Annual maintenance cost assumes 8 hours worth of labor by a technician to perform the necessary tasks (e.g., filter replacement, draining condenser water, etc.)

• Fan energy is affected by several factors, including fan type (e.g., centrifugal, axial), fan blade shape (e.g., forward-curved, backward-curved, backward-inclined, 

airfoil), drive type (belt or direct), configuration (plenum or housed centrifugal), system effects, duct design, filter and coil pressure drops, and motor VFD 

efficiency. 

• For this Advanced Case, the projections from 2030 to 2050 for system fan power and annual fan energy use assume a 5% improvement per decade based on the 

assumption use of variable frequency drives and incremental improvements in technology will increase.
Final

86

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Fan Coil Units

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average5

Low3 Typical5 High6 ENERGY 

STAR Typical4,6 High4,7 Typical4,7 High4,8 Typical4,8 High4,8,9

System Airflow (CFM) 800 800 800 800 800 N/A 800 800 800 800 800 800

System Fan Power (kW) 0.241 0.241 0.241 0.148 0.148 N/A 0.141 0.134 0.134 0.136 0.136 0.129

Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) 0.302 0.302 0.301 0.185 0.185 N/A 0.176 0.167 0.167 0.170 0.170 0.162

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)1

543 542 542 333 333 N/A 316 301 301 306 306 291

Average Life (years) 37 37 37 37 37 N/A 37 37 37 37 37 37

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2

$2,845 $2,688 $3,038 $3,521 $3,961 N/A $3,961 $4,161 $3,961 $4,161 $3,961 $4,161 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $117 $117 $117 $117 $117 N/A $117 $117 $117 $117 $117 $117 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand 

CFM) $3,557 $3,360 $3,798 $4,401 $4,951 N/A $4,951 $5,201 $4,951 $5,201 $4,951 $5,201 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/thousand CFM) $146 $146 $146 $146 $146 N/A $146 $146 $146 $146 $146 $146 

1. Based on 2250 operating hours per year (ADL, 1999) and typical zone air flow requirement profile (ASHRAE S45.11-2012)

2. Total installed cost of 2-ton horizontal two-pipe fan coil unit, housing, and controls

3. Based on ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 fan power limit (Table 6.5.3.1.1-1) with no pressure drop adjustment. Assumed 80% motor load and 91% motor efficiency

4. Based on ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 Section 6.5.3.6 requirement of electronically commutated or 70+% efficient fan motor

5. Permanent split capacitor fan motor

6. Electronically commutated fan motor (single speed)

7. Electronically commutated fan motor (two-speed)

8. Electronically commutated fan motor (variable speed)

9. High aerodynamic efficiency fan

Same as Reference Case 
Final

87

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Fan Coil Units

• Commercial fan coil units (FCUs) are self-contained, mass-produced assemblies that provide cooling, heating, or cooling and heating, but they do not include the 

source of cooling or heating. The unit characterized in this report is a cooling only (two-pipe), horizontal unit with housing and controls. Fan coil units are typically 

installed in or adjacent to the space being served and have no (or very limited) ductwork. 

• According to manufacturer literature, the cooling capacity for a nominal 800 CFM fan coil unit is about 2 tons. This analysis examines only the fan energy of FCUs.

• Fan coil unit fan motors can be shaded pole, a single-phase AC motor with offset start winding and no capacitor; PSC, a single-phase AC motor with offset start 

winding with capacitor; or ECM, an AC electronically commutated permanent magnet DC motor. PSC motors are currently the most common motor type in FCUs, 

but manufacturers also offer single speed, two speed, and ECM motors as an option. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 requires an electronically commutated fan motor (or 

minimum motor efficiency of 70%) for this system.

• There is movement in the industry and in energy codes to reduce fan power. ASHRAE 90.1 includes fan power limits for FCUs. Fan power can be minimized 

through good design practice and high efficiency type fans. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 now requires a minimum fan efficiency grade (FEG, based on AMCA 205-12: 

Energy Efficiency Classification for Fans) of 67 and a design operating fan efficiency within 15% of the maximum fan total efficiency. There are exceptions to this 

requirement, including small systems such as the FCU considered here. Still the fan power limits are expected to become more stringent, and fan efficiency will 

become more important throughout the industry.

• Fan coil units have higher maintenance costs than central air systems due to the distributed nature of the system. For each unit, the filters must be changed, and 

drain systems must be flushed periodically.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a basis for most state energy codes, limits the fan power (brake HP or nameplate HP). The 2016 version of Standard 90.1 

was used to represent the 2018 minimum efficiency level (state energy codes typically refer to older versions of Standard 90.1 due to code revision cycles).

• Fan energy is affected by several factors, including fan type configuration, filter and coil pressure drops, motor efficiency, and fan speed control. 
Final

Appendix A

Data Sources

A-1

Guidehouse

1200 19th Street, NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

And

Leidos

8301 Greensboro Drive

McLean, VA 22102
Final

Residential Lighting

A-2
Final

90

Data Sources » Residential General Service LED Lamps (60 Watt Equivalent)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023** 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting 

in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

2020 DOE LED 

Pricing Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting 

in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

2020 DOE LED 

Pricing Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated N/A Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

91

Data Sources » Residential General Service Filament-LED Lamps (60 Watt Equivalent)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023** 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting 

in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

2020 DOE LED 

Pricing Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting 

in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

2020 DOE LED 

Pricing Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated N/A Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

92

Data Sources » Residential Reflector LED BR30

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023** 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage Model 

Reference 

Scenario, 

Energy 

Savings 

Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illuminatio

n 

Application

s (Navigant, 

2019)

2020 DOE 

LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model 

Reference 

Scenario, 

Energy 

Savings 

Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illuminatio

n 

Application

s (Navigant, 

2019)

2020 DOE 

LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated N/A Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

93

Data Sources » Residential Reflector LED PAR38

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023** 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated N/A Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

94

Data Sources » Residential Linear LED Replacement Lamp 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Webscrape 

Database Distributor Websites

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Same as 2022 Typical and High

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI 2016 EIA Ref. Case Distributor Websites

Distributor Websites Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2016 EIA Ref. Case

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database Distributor Websites Calculated

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

95

Data Sources » Residential Linear LED Luminaire

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database Distributor Websites

Calculated

System Lumens Assume Same as 2022 Typical and High

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Distributor Websites Distributor Websites

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database Distributor Websites Calculated

Ballast Price (2022$)

N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Ref. Case 2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

96

Data Sources » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: LED PAR38)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023* 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Same as Residential LED PAR38

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (1000 hrs) 

Annual Operating Hours (hrs/yr)

Lamp Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

Labor Cost (2022$/hr)

Labor Lamp Installation (hr)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/klm)
Final

97

Data Sources » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Porch: LED A-Type)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023* 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR* Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage Model 

Reference 

Scenario, 

Energy 

Savings 

Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 

2019)

2020 DOE 

LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model 

Reference 

Scenario, 

Energy 

Savings 

Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 

2019)

2020 DOE 

LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

Commercial Lighting

A-10
Final

99

Data Sources » Commercial General Service 100W Equivalent LED Replacement Lamp in Recessed Can Fixture

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs ENERGY STAR, 

2020 DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

Calculated System Lumens* 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE)

CRI

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

ENERGY STAR, 

2020

N/A

Assume Unchanged

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) ENERGY STAR, 

2020

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019) Assume Unchanged

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp P rice (2022$)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019) Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs N/A

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast P rice (2022$) N/A N/A Fixture Price (2022$)*

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA 

Reference Case Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

100

Data Sources » Commercial LED Reflector Lighting (PAR38)

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs ENERGY STAR, 

2020 DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

Calculated System Lumens*

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE)

CRI

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

ENERGY STAR, 

2020

N/A

Assume Unchanged

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) ENERGY STAR, 

2020

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019) Assume Unchanged

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp P rice (2022$)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019) Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs N/A

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast P rice (2022$) N/A N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA 

Reference Case Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

A-13

Data Sources » Commercial 4-ft Linear LED Replacement Lamp in 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

LED 

Webscrape 

Database

Distributor Websites

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Same as 2022 Typical and High

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting 

in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI

Distributor Websites Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

LED 

Webscrape 

Database

Distributor Websites Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting 

in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case 2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) Assume unchanged

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

A-14

Data Sources » Commercial 4-ft Linear LED Luminaire to Replace 2-Lamp Systems

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage LED 

Webscrape 

Database

Distributor Websites

Calculated

System Lumens Assume Same as 2022 Typical and High

System Efficacy (lm/W) Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting 

in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A

CRI

Distributor Websites Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$)

LED 

Webscrape 

Database

Distributor Websites Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting 

in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case 2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

A-15

Data Sources » Commercial 8-ft Linear LED Replacement Lamp for a 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

N/A

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Distributor Websites Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Same as 2022 Typical and High

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Calculated

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Distributor Websites

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Distributor Websites

Calculated

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) Chapter 8; Table 8.2.4 of GSFL IRL Preliminary Analysis TSD (DOE, 2013)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

A-16

Data Sources » Commercial 8-ft Linear LED Luminaire Replacement for a 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

N/A

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Distributor Websites

Calculated

System Lumens Assume Same as 2022 Typical and High

System Efficacy (lm/W) Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Distributor Websites

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Distributor Websites

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

2022 RS Means Online Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

105

Data Sources » Commercial LED Low-Bay Luminaire

DAT A SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High

Lamp Wattage 

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

N/A

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 

2019)

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency N/A N/A N/A

CRI

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Correlated Color T emperature (CCT ) Assume Unchanged

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 

2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 

2019)

Ballast Price (2022$)

N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 

2019)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case 2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

106

Data Sources » Commercial LED High-Bay Luminaire

DAT A SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High

Lamp Wattage 

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

N/A

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A

CRI Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Correlated Color T emperature (CCT ) Assume Unchanged

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Price (2022$)

N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019) Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case 2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

Refrigeration

A-19
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Compressor Rack Systems

A-3

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Capacity (kBtu/h) ADL, 1996 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Median Store Size (ft2

) 

Food 

Marketing 

Institute 

(FMI), 2012

CBECS 2018

Power Input (kW) Copeland, 

2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use (MMWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / 

NCI 

Analysis, 

2015

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Indexed Annual Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) KysorWarren, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

NCI, 2009 /

NCI 

Analysis, 

2012

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

NCI 

Analysis, 

2008

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Condensers

A-4

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Capacity (kBtu/h)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 / Heatcraft, 

2008 / ADL, 1996

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Median Store Size (ft2) 

Food Marketing 

Institute (FMI), 

2012

CBECS 2018

Power Input (kW)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 / Heatcraft, 

2008 / ADL, 1996

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(MMWh/y)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 / ADL, 1996 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Indexed Annual Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 / Heatcraft, 

2008 / RS Means, 

2007

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Supermarket Display Cases

A-2

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Median Store Size (ft2) 

Food Marketing 

Institute (FMI), 

2012

CBECS 2018

Case Length (ft) DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)1,2

DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use / Case 

Length (kWh/ft) Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency3 Calculated

Average Life (years) DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)

DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / The Restaurant Store

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)4

DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Reach-In Refrigerators

A-7

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h)ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report

Size (ft3) 

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites

DOE, 2014: CRE Report

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / ENERGY STAR 2022

Annual Energy Use / 

Volume (kWh/y/ft3)

NCI Analysis, 

2012 Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) Calculated

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$) ACEEE, 2002 DOE, 2014: CRE TSD

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996/ 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / ENERGY STAR 2022 / The Restaurant Store

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$) Calculated

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 

NCI Analysis, 

2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Reach-In Freezers

A-8

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity 

(Btu/h)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2016: CRE Report

Size (ft3) 

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites

DOE, 2016: CRE Report

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use / 

Volume (kWh/y/ft3)

NCI Analysis, 

2012 Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) ACEEE, 2002 DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment 

Cost (2022$)

ADL, 1996/ 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / ENERGY STAR 2022 / The Restaurant Store

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

A-5

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity 

(Btu/h) DOE CRE Report 2016 / CCMS 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Size (ft2) DOE 2014 WICF TSD / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use / 

Area (kWh/ft2/y) Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency Calculated

Insulated Box 

Average Life (years)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Compressor Average 

Life (years)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment 

Cost (2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Webstaurant 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Webstaurant 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2023

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$)

ADL, 1996 / FMI, 

2005 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

A-6

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity 

(Btu/h)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE CRE Report 2016 / CCMS 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Size (ft2) ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 / 

NCI Analysis, 

2008

Guidehouse CRE Report 2016

Annual Energy Use / 

Area (kWh/ft2/y) Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency Calculated

Insulated Box Average 

Life (years)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Compressor Average 

Life (years)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Webstaurant 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Webstaurant 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2023

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$) DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Ice Machines

A-9

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Output (pounds [lbs] per 

day)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022 / CCMS Database 2022

Water Use per Hundred 

Pounds (gal/hundred lbs)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites

DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022 / CCMS Database 2022

Energy Use per Hundred 

Pounds (kWh/hundred 

lbs)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ACEEE, 2002 /

NCI Analysis, 

2012

DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022 / ENERGY STAR

Indexed Annual EfficiencyCalculated

Average Life (years)

ADL, 1996/ 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Total Installed Cost (with 

Bin)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Beverage Merchandisers

A-10

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Size (ft3

) 

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor 

Web Sites

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / 

NCI 

Analysis, 

2008

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / ENERGY STAR 2022

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/ft3

/y) Calculated

Indexed Annual Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) ACEEE, 2002 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor 

Web Sites

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / KaTom Restaurant Supply

Total Installed Cost (2022$) DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

A-11

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h)

DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD / 

Guidehouse 

Analysis, 

2015

DOE, 2022: BVM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Can Capacity DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Size (ft3) DOE, 2022: BVM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y) DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/ft3/y) Calculated

Indexed Annual Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Total Installed Cost (2022$) DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD / 

Guidehouse 

Analysis, 

2015

DOE, 2022: BVM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) DOE, 2022: BVM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022
Final

118

Commercial Ventilation 
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Constant Air Volume Ventilation

A-12

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

System Airflow (CFM) CBECS 2003 & 

BED 2007 CBECS 2018

System Fan Power (kW) ASHRAE 90.1-

2007

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016

ASHRAE 90.1-

2019 Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) ASHRAE 90.1 2019 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)

Average Life (years) ASHRAE: Service Life Database

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Variable Air Volume Ventilation

A-13

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

System Airflow (CFM) CBECS 2003 

& BED 2007 CBECS 2018

System Fan Power (kW) 

ASHRAE 

90.1-2007

ASHRAE 

90.1-2016

ASHRAE 

90.1-2019 Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) ASHRAE 90.1 2019 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)

Average Life (years) ASHRAE: Service Life Database

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/thousand 

CFM) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Fan Coil Unit

A-14

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

System Airflow (CFM) Product Literature

System Fan Power (kW) 

ASHRAE 90.1-

2007

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016

ASHRAE 90.1-

2019 Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) ASHRAE 90.1 2019 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)

Average Life (years) ASHRAE: Service Life Database

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated
Final

Appendix B

References

122

Guidehouse

1200 19th Street, NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

And

Leidos

11951 Freedom Drive 

Reston, VA 20190
Final

References

• ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database. (n.d.).

• ASHRAE 90.1-2010, 2016, 2019. Energy Standard for Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential Buildings

• Appliance Magazine. (2005). Portrait of the U.S. Appliance Industry. Appliance Magazine.

• Arthur D. Little. (1996). Energy Savings Potential for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment.

• DOE SSL Program. (2012a). 2010 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization

• DOE SSL Program. (2012b). Residential Lighting End-Use Consumption Study: Estimation Framework and Initial Estimates

• DOE SSL Program. (2017). 2015 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization

• DOE Appliance and Equipment Standards Program. (2022). The Compliance Certification Database.

• EERE. (2014). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Automatic Commercial Ice Makers

• EERE. (2014). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Commercial Refrigeration Equipment.

• EERE. (2014). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines

• EERE. (2015). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Walk-in Coolers and Freezers.

• ENERGY STAR. (n.d.). Retrieved November 2015, from ENERGY STAR Products: 

http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=products.pr_find_es_products

• ENERGY STAR. (2020) from ENERGY STAR Lamps Specification Version 2.1: 

https://www.energystar.gov/sites/default/files/Lamps%20V2.1%20Final%20Specification%20%28Revised%20June%202

020%29_0.pdf

B-1
Final

References

• ENERGY STAR. (2014) ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs) Eligibility 

Criteria Version 1.1

• ENERGY STAR. (2012) ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Luminaires (Light Fixtures) 

Eligibility Criteria Version 1.1

• Environmental Protection Agency. (2022). Establishing a Recycling Program for Mercury-Containing Light Bulbs. From: 

https://www.epa.gov/hw/establishing-recycling-program-mercury-containing-light-bulbs

• Federal Standard. (1975). National energy conservation standards authorized under the Energy and Policy 

Conservation Act of 2007 (EPCA 1975).

• Federal Standard. (2005). National energy conservation standards authorized under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 

(EPACT 2005).

• Federal Standard. (2007). National energy conservation standards authorized under the Energy Independence and 

Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007).

• Food Marketing Institute. (n.d.). Retrieved May 2022, from FMI Supermarket Facts: https://www.fmi.org/ourresearch/supermarket-facts/average-total-store-size-square-feetLighting Research Institute. (1992). Specifier Reports, 

Specular Reflectors.

• KaTom. (n.d.) Retrieved May 2022, From: https://www.katom.com/

• Navigant Consulting, Inc. (2009). Energy Savings Potential and R&D Opportunities for Commercial Refrigeration.

• Navigant Consulting, Inc. (n.d.). In House Expertise.

B-2
Final

References

• Navigant Consulting, Inc. (2019). Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications, Model. https://www.energy.gov/eere/ssl/downloads/2019-ssl-forecast-report

• Product Literature. (n.d.). Literature from manufacturers and experts on specific products

• The Restaurant Store. (n.d.). Retrieved May 2022, From: https://www.therestaurantstore.com/

• RS Means Online. (2022). Retrieved June 2022, From: https://www.rsmeansonline.com/

• Webstaurant. (n.d.) Retrieved May 2022, From: https://www.webstaurantstore.com/

B-3