U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2022

For

AEO2022 Second Transportation Working Group

September 30, 2021 | Washington, DC

By

Caroline Campbell, Michael Dwyer, and John Maples (lead)

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling

Prospective modeling and data updates in the transportation sector
AEO2022 and COVID-19

• AEO2022 reflects updated macroeconomic projections from IHS Markit 

(including vehicle sales)

• The forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) reflect the nearterm impacts of the pandemic and subsequent mitigation efforts.

• We released an Annual Energy Outlook Trends and Expectations report that 

discusses some of the early impacts of COVID-19 on different energy 

sectors: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/trends_expectations.php

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021 2

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Outline

• Preliminary results from Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) Reference 

case

– Macroeconomic assumptions

– Light-duty vehicles (LDV)

– Heavy-duty vehicles (HDV)

– Air travel

• Updates in progress

• Discussion

3

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Macroeconomic Assumptions

4

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Higher real GDP

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

trillion 2012$

history projection

AEO2022

AEO2021

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Lower 16+ population in AEO2022

6

AEO2021

AEO2022

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

millions

history projection

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Higher resulting GDP per capita

7

AEO2022

AEO2021

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

thousand 2012$

history projection

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Faster recovery, slower growth in World Oil Price

8

AEO2021

AEO2022

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2020$ per barrel

history projection

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Light-duty vehicles

9

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Increase in total LDV vehicle miles traveled (VMT)

10

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

trillion miles

AEO2022

AEO2021

history projection

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Lower population offset by increased VMT per driver

11

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

index (2019 = 1.0)

VMT per

driver

total LDV

VMT

licensed

drivers

- - - AEO2021

— AEO2022 (preliminary)

history projection

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
VMT per driver 

12

disposable 

income

VMT

per driver

cost to drive

- - - AEO2021

— AEO2022 (preliminary)

history projection

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

employment rate

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

index (2019 = 1.0)

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
VMT per driver

13

VMT per driver

- - - AEO2021

— AEO2022 (preliminary)

history projection

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

index (2019 = 1.0)

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Stock fuel economy similar to AEO2021

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

miles per gallon

car

light truck

total LDV

history projection

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Higher total LDV energy consumption due to increased 

travel demand

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

trillion miles

AEO2022

AEO2021

history projection

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Medium- and heavy-duty trucks

16

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Freight truck energy consumption decreases due to changes 

in industrial output

17

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

quadrillion British thermal units

AEO2021

AEO2022

history projection

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Air travel

18

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
NEMS air travel module (TRANAIR)

19

Freight travel

Revenue ton miles

Driver: gdp

Passenger travel

Revenue passenger miles

Driver: GDP/capita

Domestic International Belly Dedicated

Wide body

Narrow body

Regional jet

Wide body

Narrow body

Regional jet

Wide body

Narrow body

Regional jet

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Lower travel demand in the short term

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

20

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

billion revenue passenger miles - - - AEO2021

— AEO2022 (preliminary)

domestic

international

history projection

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Load factors lower than AEO2021, particularly for 

international flights

21

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

billion revenue passenger miles - - - AEO2021

— AEO2022 (preliminary)

domestic

international

history projection

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Higher fleet efficiency in AEO2022

22

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

seat miles per gallon - - - AEO2021

— AEO2022 (preliminary)

fleet average

history projection

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
AEO2022 fleet efficiency

23

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

fleet average

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

seat miles per gallon

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

seat miles per gallon

AEO2022 fleet efficiency

24

2020

Wide body Older jets parked | freighter conversions

Narrow body Used on more international (longer) routes

Fleet average Shift from wide bodies to narrow bodies 

offsets efficiency increase from newer fleet

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

fleet average

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

seat miles per gallon

fleet average

AEO2022 fleet efficiency

25

2021

Wide body More parking of older jets and freighter 

conversions

Narrow body Newer jets unparked to meet recovering 

demand

Fleet average Newer wide and narrow body fleet

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

seat miles per gallon

fleet average

AEO2022 fleet efficiency

26

2022

Wide body Older jets unparked to meet 

recovering international demand

Narrow body Older jets unparked to meet 

recovering demand; shift back to 

domestic (shorter) routes

Fleet average Start shift back to wide bodies on 

international routes

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

seat miles per gallon

fleet average

AEO2022 fleet efficiency

27

2023

Wide body New aircraft deliveries to fill gaps

left by freighter conversions

Narrow body More older jets being unparked

Fleet average Demand continues shifting back 

from narrow bodies to wide bodies

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

seat miles per gallon

fleet average

AEO2022 fleet efficiency

28

2024+

Continued international recovery

Slow wide body jet turnover and reversion to historical trend 

of transition to narrow bodies 

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Lower commercial jet fuel consumption due to increase in 

efficiency

29

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

quadrillion British thermal units

AEO2021

AEO2022

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Total transportation energy consumption

30

24

25

26

27

28

29

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

quadrillion British thermal units

AEO2022

AEO2021

Sources: EIA, AEO2022, ref2022.0927e; AEO2021, ref2021.1130a

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
In progress

• Updated battery cost model

• On-road vehicle stock update (adding 2019 and 2020 registration data)

• Covid-19 impacts and recovery (LDV, transit)

31

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Discussion

32

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021
Contact information

Caroline Campbell | phone: 202-586-0259

| email: caroline.campbell@eia.gov

Michael Dwyer | phone: 202-586-8406

| email: michael.dwyer@eia.gov

John Maples (lead) | phone: 202-586-1757 

| email: john.maples@eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo

33

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 30, 2021