U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2019

For

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group

May 31, 2018 | Washington, DC

By

John Maples, Nicholas Chase, Melissa Lynes, Mark Schipper, David Stone

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

Review of AEO2018 and potential updates for AEO2019
Outline

• Recap of AEO2018 Reference case

• AEO2018 Reference case projections and discussion on proposed model 

updates for AEO2019 affecting key projections

• Ongoing automated vehicle model development

• Other potential updates for AEO2019

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 2
Transportation energy consumption declines between 2019 

and 2035 in the Reference case

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case

3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Energy consumption by travel mode

quadrillion Btu

2017

history projections

light-duty

vehicles

medium- and 

Heavy-duty

air

commercial

light trucks

rail

marine

other

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Transportation sector consumption by fuel type 

quadrillion Btu 2017

history projections

motor

gasoline

distillate

fuel oil

jet fuel

electricity

other
Discussion and request for feedback on key 

AEO2018 projections

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 4
Light-duty vehicles

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 5
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Percentage of new vehicle sales by type

percent

Car

Light-truck

2017

AEO2018 Reference case Discussion points

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018

Proposing to add crossover utility vehicle (CUV) size classes to car 

and light-truck groups to improve modeling

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case

6

• Considering adding 2 size classes to 

both car and light-truck

• Small CUV 

• Large CUV

• For cars (~26% of 2016 car sales):

• Differentiates sedans and 

hatchbacks from CUVs

• For light-trucks (~54% of LTs):

• Differentiates SUVs from CUVs
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Light-duty vehicle stock by type

millions

Car

Light-truck

2017

AEO2018 Reference case Discussion points

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018

Proposing to align light-duty vehicle stock classification to 

NHTSA/EPA classification to better model stocks and VMT

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case

7

• The historic vehicle stock is based 

on industry classification of car 

versus light-truck

• Update would align stock data 

(sourced from Polk IHS Markit) with 

NHTSA/EPA classifications for car 

and light-truck

• Will influence scrappage and VMT
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Light-duty stock fuel economy

miles per gallon

Car

Combined

Light-truck

2017

AEO2018 Reference case Discussion points

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018

Proposing to regionalize light-duty stock fuel economy to improve 

modeling of regional energy consumption

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case

8

• Regionalizing stock fuel economy 

components and projections

• VMT/vintage by car and lighttruck

• Vehicle scrappage
Policy uncertainty could affect fuel economy and sales 

projections in AEO2019

• Fuel economy and alternative vehicle sales projections will reflect current 

policy 

• Technology menu could be updated with assumptions made in CAFE/GHG 

midterm review 

• Policy changes affecting the California ZEV Mandate and adopting states 

would be captured

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 9
Automated vehicle model development 

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 10
EIA plans automated vehicle working group or workshop

• To be held later this summer

• If you would like to be involved please let us know

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 11
Automated vehicle development for AEO2019

• Adding automated levels 1-3 technologies into the tech adoption list

– Would be added as technologies up to an assumed max penetration at different uptake rates

– Captures cost of technology adoption 

– Assumes no fuel economy effect besides small weight addition

• Adding heavy truck platooning

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 12
13

The 

BRAIN PMT VMT Availability 

of transit

Cost & utility of 

vehicle 

ownership

Availability 

of ride 

hailing

Empty miles

Underserved 

population

Population 

density

Cost ride 

hailing Cost transit

Deliveries

Urban v. 

suburban 

v. rural

ROI

Tech cost 

curve

Fuel 

economy

Scrappage 

rates

Traditional

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018
14

The 

BRAIN PMT VMT Availability 

of transit

Cost & utility of 

vehicle 

ownership

Availability 

of ride 

hailing

Empty miles

Underserved 

population

Population 

density

Cost ride 

hailing Cost transit

Deliveries

Urban v. 

suburban 

v. rural

ROI

Tech cost 

curve

Fuel 

economy

Scrappage 

rates

Traditional

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018
Proposed automated vehicle development for AEO2019

• Create a new fleet – taxis/ride-hailing

• Economic decision for adoption of three levels of highly automated vehicles 

in the taxi fleet model

– 4a – low speed level 4 vehicle

– 4b – high speed level 4 vehicle

– 5 – level 5 vehicle

• Production based Lidar cost projection

• Assumption driven household adoption lags fleet adoption

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 15
Proposed automated vehicle development for AEO2019

• Powertrains are assumed to be the same as non-automated taxi powertrains

– Dedicated 48 volt battery added to vehicle

– High voltage power for sensors and processing

– Would have fuel economy degradation factor

– Has to have the ability to operate 24 hours a day

• Feedback on other transportation modes

– Reduces transit rail passenger miles traveled

– Reduces transit bus passenger miles traveled, until automated micro-buses are introduced

– Increases commuter rail passenger miles traveled, as a first-last-mile solution

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 16
Public transit

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 17
Public transit continues to grow in all modes

• Limited infrastructure and peaking or declining ridership in transit rail

• Competition with TNC ride-hailing is changing transit passenger miles

• Introduction of automated micro-buses

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 18
International marine

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 19
0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

 residual fuel oil

 distillate fuel oil (diesel)

 liquefied natural gas

International shipping energy consumption

trillion Btu

AEO2018 Reference case Discussion points

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018

Review of NEMS integration of International Convention 

for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) 

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case

20

• Ocean-going vessels will be 

required to use fuel with a sulfur 

content of no more than 0.5% m/m, 

against the current limit of 3.5%, or 

install on-board scrubbers

• New requirement takes effect in 

2020

• Fuel prices are planned drivers for 

fuel choice
Discussion/questions

Nicholas Chase | phone: 202-586-1879 | email: nicholas.chase@eia.gov

Melissa Lynes | phone: 202-586-5192 | email: melissa.lynes@eia.gov

John Maples (lead) | phone: 202-586-1757 | email: john.maples@eia.gov

Mark Schipper | phone: 202-586-1136 | email: mark.schipper@eia.gov

David Stone | phone: 202-586-8851 | email: david.stone@eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

Alternative Policies Issues in Focus | 

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/section_issues.php?src=home-b1#ppg

Autonomous Vehicle Issues in Focus |

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/section_issues.php?src=home-b1#av

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 21
Supplemental slides

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 22
Passenger travel increases across all transportation modes in 

the Reference case through 2050

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case

23

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2010 2030 2050

2017

history projections

Vehicle travel

trillion vehicle miles

light-duty 

vehicles

heavy-duty 

trucks

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2030 2050

2017

history projections

Passenger travel

trillion passenger miles

passenger rail

bus

air

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2030 2050

2017

history projections

Rail and domestic shipping

trillion ton miles traveled

freight rail

domestic 

marine
Fuel economy of all on-road vehicles increases in the 

Reference case

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case

24

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Light-duty vehicle stock fuel economy

miles per gallon

2017

history projections

car

combined

light truck

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Heavy-duty vehicle stock fuel economy

miles per gallon

2017

history projections Classes 

2b - 3

Classes 

4 - 6

Classes 

7 - 8
Light-duty vehicle fuel economy improves as sales of more 

fuel-efficient cars grow and as electrified powertrains gain 

market share

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case

25

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Light-duty vehicle sales by fuel type

millions of vehicles

2017

history projections other

hybrid electric

plug-in hybrid 

electric

battery electric

diesel

flex fuel

gasoline

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Light-duty vehicle sales shares

percent

car

truck

//

0

2017

history projections
Sales of electric and plug-in hybrid electric light-duty 

vehicles increase in the Reference case

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case

26

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

New vehicle sales of battery powered vehicles

thousands of vehicles

total battery

electric

200 mile EV

300 mile EV

hybrid electric 

plug-in hybrid

100 mile EV

2017

history projections
Consumption of total non-major transportation fuels grows 

in the Reference case between 2017 and 2050

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case

27

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Transportation sector consumption of non-major petroleum and alternative fuels 

quadrillion Btu

2017

history projections electricity

compressed and 

liquefied natural 

gas

residual fuel oil

pipeline fuel 

natural gas

other petroleum

propane

hydrogen
Transportation related Issues in Focus side cases in 

AEO2018

• Alternative Policies in Power Generation and Energy Demand Markets

– New Efficiency Requirements case

• Increases LDV CAFE and GHG emissions standards through 2050

– No New Efficiency Requirements case

• Holds LDV CAFE and GHG emission standards constant at MY 2021 levels

• Autonomous Vehicles: Uncertainties and Energy Implications

– Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case

• More widespread autonomous LDVs that are increasingly battery electric by 2050

– Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case

• More widespread autonomous LDVs that are increasingly hybrid electric by 2050

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 28
Alternative Policies in Power Generation and Energy 

Demand Markets case

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case, New Efficiency Requirements case, and No New Efficiency Requirements case

29

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Transportation delivered energy consumption

quadrillion Btu

No New Efficiency Requirements

2017

history projections

≈

0

Reference

New Efficiency Requirements 0

20

40

60

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

New LDV CAFE standard

miles per gallon

No New Efficiency Requirements

2017

history projections

Reference

New Efficiency Requirements
Autonomous Vehicles: Uncertainties and Energy 

Implications case

AEO2019 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 31, 2018 30

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Transportation delivered energy consumption

quadrillion Btu

Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle

2017

history projections

≈

0

Reference

Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle

0

5

10

15

20

2020 2050

Light-duty vehicle sales

million vehicles

Reference

2020 2050 2020 2050

Autonomous Battery

Electric Vehicle

Autonomous Hybrid

Electric Vehicle

Conventional

gasoline

Battery electric

Hybrid electric

Other

Source: EIA, AEO2018 Reference case, Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicle case, and Autonomous Hybrid Electric Vehicle case