U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2016

1st Coal Working Group

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS 

AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
What’s the schedule for release of EIA’s 

products and the Coal Working Group?

2

• EIA’s analysis of EPA’s Draft Clean Power Plan (CPP) rule based 

on the AEO2015 Reference case was released as a service report 

on May 22, 2015

– See: http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/powerplants/cleanplan/ 

• IEO2015 will be a full edition – tentative release date January 2016 

• AEO2016 will be a full edition, but with a more limited number of 

side cases – tentative release date June 2016

• 2nd AEO2016 Coal Working Group will occur in early February 2016

• Mike Mellish will be retiring at the end of 2015

– Diane Kearney will be the point of contact for the Coal Working Group going forward 

(Diane.Kearney@eia.gov, (202) 586-2415)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
What’s New for AEO2016?

• First use of newly-recoded Coal Market Module (CMM) from 

Fortran to AIMMS [ran in parallel in AEO2015]

• Implementation of the Final CPP in the Reference case

• Assessment of new EPA regulations affecting the coal sector

• Re-estimation and update of the underlying coal supply curve 

regressions in the CMM Coal Pricing Submodule (CPS) to 

incorporate data for 2010-2013

• Development of a more automated AEO - STEO benchmarking 

process

• Inclusion of final 2014 survey data and up-to-date capacity additions 

and retirement; related adjustments to productivity trends

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C. 3

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
What else is EIA working on?

4

• Re-estimating international coal export supply curves and equations 

for estimating ocean freight rates

– Engaged team from Hellerworx to perform the work

– Expected completion of initial phase by end of May 2016 

– Expect to incorporate by AEO2018

• Developing conceptual framework for addressing coal fleet aging by 

hosting a modeler’s forum in 2016 as follow up to the EIA postconference session

– See: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/coal/

• Changes to EIA survey forms

• Updating power-sector capital costs for technologies that either 

may have changed substantially or that are likely to be incorporated 

into NEMS

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Legislation and Regulations

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C. 5

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Model development activity will focus 

mainly on the EPA’s Final CPP Rule

• AEO Reference case assumes current laws and final regulations

• EPA has promulgated several other power-sector regulations since AEO2015 

that we will analyze and account for as necessary or as resources permit

– Will require extensive data analysis and non-trivial NEMS code changes in the electricity model

– Rely on EPA’s detailed input cost estimates aggregating when necessary to preserve 

Confidential Business Information (CBI)

– Assume EPA’s population of affected plants is accurate

– Pre-assume a method of compliance at the plant level consistent with EPA analysis

– Assume a single year for compliance (specific date to be determined but by 2023)

• Several significant changes to state RPS policies will be incorporated, and the 

expiration dates for federal tax subsidies that have not been extended to-date 

will be monitored

6

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
EPA and the courts have been busy issuing or 

confirming regulations affecting the power sector

Regulation AEO2015 

Assumption

AEO2016 

Assumption

Comment

Cross State Air 

Pollution Rule- CSAPR 

(SO2/NOx)

Clean Air Interstate Rule Will model CSAPR

Mercury and Air Toxics 

Program (Hg/SO3)

Models compliance with 

MATS requirements

Update retirements to 

match announced plans

Could have impact on 

CPP results

New Source 

Performance Standards 

limiting CO2 emissions 

from new plants (Clean 

Air Act S. 111b)

Not modeled Will be included in

Reference case

Part of CPP package; 

requires coal units to 

install USC with partial 

CCS to achieve max. rate 

of 1,400 lb CO2/MWh 

Regional Haze (Best 

Available Retrofit 

Technology)

Assumes compliance is 

reflected in EIA-860 

filings on plants

Will re-assess for 

inclusion in AEO

Not expecting significant 

impact

Coal Combustion

Residuals (Coal ash)

Not modeled Will be included in 

Reference case

Not expecting significant 

impact (approx. 0.8 GW)

Cooling Water Intakes 

(Clean Water Act S. 316b)

Not modeled Will evaluate for 

inclusion in AEO

Not expecting significant 

impact (approx. 1 GW)

Effluent Limitation 

Guidelines

Not modeled Will evaluate for 

inclusion in AEO

Not expecting significant 

impact (approx. 1 GW)

7

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal Combustion Residual (Coal Ash) 

Final Rule

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C. 8

• Final guidelines released April 2015

– Rule sets national minimum criteria for the new and existing landfills and impoundments used for the disposal of coal ash.

• All CCR units must monitor groundwater.

• Impoundments and landfills that fail to meet location requirements or impoundments that fail to meet structural integrity 

requirements (i.e. those that pose the greatest risk) must close.

• Some existing disposal sites may be required to retrofit or decide to close (avoiding all compliance costs) .

• Unlined impoundments can continue to operate, but if unacceptable groundwater contamination occurs, they must retrofit 

or close. Similarly, unlined landfills can continue to operate but corrective action must occur to address any releases.

– Coal ash will continue to be regulated as a non-hazardous waste under Subtitle D of the Resource Conservation Recovery Act.

– Rule allows CCR products to remain unregulated if the CCR is encapsulated in a product having a beneficial use. This includes

gypsum wallboard and concrete but specifically excludes the use of coal ash as ground fill. 

– Rule is unenforceable by EPA, but facilities that do not comply may be subject to litigation from other interested parties. 

• Implementation timeline

– Specific timelines vary depending on type of characteristics of CCR unit and compliance option chosen.

• EPA’s estimate of electric power capacity retirements: ~ 0.8 gigawatts

• EPA’s incremental cost estimate:

– $509-$735 million annually (depending on discount rate)

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Cooling Water Intakes (316(b)) Final Rule 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C. 9

• Final rule effective as of October 2014

– Sets impingement controls for new and existing electric generating and manufacturing facilities with design intake flow of 

at least 2 million gallons per day (MGD) and use at least 25% of the water withdrawals for cooling.

– Requires facilities having >125 MGD design intake flow to conduct studies to help permitting authorities determine what, 

if any, entrainment controls are needed.

– Establishes a best technology available (BTA) standard for both impingement mortality and entrainment at new and 

existing facilities.

• Existing BTA technologies for impingement include a closed cycle system, reduction of intake flows to 0.5 feet per 

second, minimum 800-foot distance offshore intakes with use of bar screens, or use of modified travelling 

screens.

• BTA for entrainment will be determined on a site-specific basis.

• Requires that new units must have the equivalent of closed loop cooling.

• Implementation time frame

– Based on expiration of National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permits but no later than 2023; a plan 

must be submitted by July 14, 2018. 

– Early choice of evaporative thermal cooling can allow implementation delay to 2023.

• EPA’s estimated electric power capacity retirements: ~1 gigawatt 

• EPA’s estimated incremental costs: 

– $275-297 million per year (excludes entrainment costs)

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Effluent Limitation Guidelines

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C. 10

• Final guidelines released September 2015

– Addresses liquid waste steams from plants (primarily coal plants) discharged directly and indirectly to 

water bodies (e.g. lakes, rivers)

• In response to the transfer of pollutants from air to water as a result of the Clean Air Act

– Regulates wastewaters associated with flue gas desulfurization, fly ash, bottom ash, flue gas mercury 

control, and gasification of fuels such as coal and petroleum coke

• Addresses discharge of mercury, arsenic, selenium, nitrites/nitrate wastes from flue gas 

desulfurization equipment 

• Includes zero discharge pollution limits for ash transport water and flue gas mercury control water

• Implementation timeline

– Effective as of January 2016

– Compliance deadlines vary according to the expiration of the plant’s National Pollutant Discharge 

Elimination System (NPDES) permit but will occur between 2018 and 2023.

• EPA’s estimate of electric power capacity retirements: ~ 1 gigawatt

• EPA’s incremental cost estimate: 

– $471-$480 million annually (depending on the discount rate)

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Other laws and regulations affecting coal

11

• EPA’s regional haze program is aimed at protecting national parks through implementation of 

Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART) 

– Requires states to lower NOx and SO2 emissions over time through state implementation plans (SIPs) or 

federal implementation plans (FIPs)

– Implementation to occur between 2014 and 2018

– Retrofits or retirements associated with finalized plans captured in reporting data

• California’s cap-and-trade program (AB 32) and the Northeast’s Regional Greenhouse Gas 

Initiative (RGGI) program

• California SB1368 that prohibits CA utilities from entering into long-term financial commitments 

for base load generation, unless it complies with the CO2 emissions performance standard of 

1,100 lbs/MWh

– Reduce firm imports to represent expiration of contracts with the Four Corners, Navajo, Reid Gardner, San 

Juan, and Boardman plants and retire Intermountain in 2025

– Adjust carbon emission rate for firm imports in accordance with the expiration of contracts

• The 3% adder on the cost of capital for upgrades to coal units without maximum sequestration 

options included to account for risk of future tightening of CO2 emissions standards and other 

policies affecting coal

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Monitoring proposed regulatory actions

12

• California post-2020 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions target

– EO-S-3-05 (2005) requires California to reduce its emissions to 20% of 2020 levels by 2050.

– Guidelines for meeting post-2020 targets are expected in 2017.

• OSM’s Stream Protection Rule (Proposed in July 2015)

– Affects surface mines and underground mines that impact the surface. 

– Requires pre-mining collection of data to establish baseline environmental conditions.

– Specifies that mining area must be returned to a condition appropriate for its pre-mining use. 

– Requires permits to specify maximum acceptable material damage levels from the mine operation.

– Earliest implementation date: January 2017

• EPA’s “Waters of the United States” (Final as of June 2015, but subject to court stay in 

October 2015)

– Expands scope of “waters of the United States” (WOTUS) that are protected under the Clean Water Act.

• Key changes relate to tributaries, adjacent wetlands, and “other waters.”

– Coal industry concerns include permitting delays.

• Potential changes to the federal coal leasing program

– DOI held recent listening sessions.

• Outcome of coal export terminal permitting processes

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
General Modeling Assumptions

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C. 13

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Average annual growth in coal mining labor 

productivity for selected supply regions (percent)

14

1980 - 2013 Recent year-over-year

changes

AEO2015

projections

Coal Supply Region 1980-

1990

1990-

2000

2000-

2013

2011-

2012

2012-

2013

2013-

2014 2013-2040

Northern Appalachia 5.4 5.5 -2.2 -4.9 3.7 11.2 -1.2

Central Appalachia 7.3 4.4 -5.2 -3.8 3.1 5.5 -2.9

Eastern Interior 4.8 3.7 -0.2 6.1 7.1 0.9 0.7

Gulf Lignite 2.6 2.4 -2.8 -4.2 -1.2 0.9 -1.0

Dakota Lignite 6.0 1.0 -3.3 -4.8 -1.7 0.7 -0.6

Western Montana 4.6 2.0 -2.4 -11.7 15.4 -0.9 -1.0

WY, Northern 

Powder River Basin 7.5 3.2 -3.2 -5.7 -2.6 3.2 -1.1

WY, Southern 

Powder River Basin 7.2 4.9 -2.4 -6.4 4.9 1.3 -1.1

Rocky Mountain 7.8 5.5 -2.4 3.5 1.3 9.3 -1.5

U.S. Average 7.1 6.2 -1.8 -0.2 6.7 7.6 -0.9

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report; and Mine Safety and Health 

Administration, Form 7000-2, “Quarterly Mine and Employment and Coal Production Report;” 

Projections: AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015).

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
-0.6% +0.7%

-1.2%

-2.9%

-1.0%

-1.5%

-1.1%*

-1.0%

U.S. Total: -0.9%

Average annual growth in coal mining labor productivity from 

2013 to 2040 in AEO2015 for selected supply regions (percent)

15

Source: 2012 Production Shares : Mine Safety and Health Administration, Form 7000-2, “Quarterly Mine and Employment and Coal Production Report;”

* Includes production from all mines in 

 Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.

2012 Production Share

3% to 5%

12% to 15%

38%

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Initial Assessment shows planned additions of new capacity are 

fairly consistent between AEO2016 and AEO2015

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

16

Gigawatts

AEO2015

AEO2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Wind Solar Renewables

0

5

10

15

20

25

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Planned Capacity Additions GW (2014-2015)

AEO2015 AEO2016

Coal 0.66 0.33

Natural Gas 16.19 20.94

Nuclear 5.52 5.52

Wind 19.76 22.62

Solar 9.56 9.59

Renewables 1.08 0.99

Total 52.77 59.99

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
 -

 2

 4

 6

 8

 10

 12

 14

 16

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025

AEO2015

AEO2016

Initial assessment shows that coal retirements 

are higher for AEO2016 than AEO2015 

17 Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

Gigawatts

AEO 2015: 32 GW’s 

AEO 2016: 41 GW’s 

Total Reported Coal Capacity Retirements 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
18

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860 “Annual Electric Generator Report”

Coal-fired capacity additions: recent completions and units 

under construction (megawatts)

FACILITY 

CODE PLANT NAME GENERATOR ID STATE

PLANT 

TYPE

ENERGY 

SOURCE

START 

YEAR

START 

MONTH

SUMMER 

CAPABILITY

56786 Spiritwood 1 ND PC LIG 2014 11 52

Included as existing capacity for 2014 in AEO2016: 52

6288 Healy 2 AK PC LIG 2015 12 50

57037 Kemper County IGCC Project 1A,1B,1C MS IGCC LIG 2016 6 555.2

Included as planned capacity additions in AEO2016: 605.2

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
19

Coal-Fired Capacity Reported as Planned but Not Yet Under 

Construction on the Form EIA-860 (megawatts)

FACILITY 

CODE PLANT NAME

GENERATOR 

ID STATE

PLANT 

TYPE

ENERGY 

SOURCE

START 

YEAR

START 

MONTH

SUMMER 

CAPABILITY

55360 Two Elk Generating Station GEN1 WY PC WC 2016 12 275

56452 Medicine Bow Fuel & Power LLC 1 WY CTL BIT 2019 12 350

56675 Plant Washington MAIN GA PC SUB 2021 4 850

Total Capacity 1,475

Note: Because these units are reported as not yet under construction on the Form EIA-860, these units are not

included as planned capacity additions in the AEO2016. 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860 “Annual Electric Generator Report”

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Review of AEO2015 Reference Case 

(April 2015)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C. 20

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Current trends already having an impact on 

coal consumption even before the CPP

• Nationally

– Slowing growth in electricity demand

– Competition with relatively low-cost natural gas

– Increasing competition with renewable energy

– Compliance with the Mercury Air Toxics Standard (MATS)

– High plant construction costs relative to natural gas

• Regionally

– Central Appalachia encountering thinning seams and reserve depletion

– Illinois Basin coals competing more effectively as plants add SO2 

controls

– Coal export markets weakening

21

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Key results for the AEO2015 Reference case

22

• Coal is the leading fuel for U.S. electricity generation in 2040. But, 

coal’s share of total generation decreases over time to 34% in 2040 

from 39% in 2013.

• The Interior region increases both production and share of total 

production.

– Coal producers in the Interior region gain share while Appalachia loses 

share of total U.S. coal production. From 2013 to 2040, the 

Appalachian region's share of total coal production (on a Btu basis) 

falls from about 35% to 27%.

– From 2013 to 2040, Interior coal production rises by 113 million tons 

while West production rises by 59 million tons.

• Much of the 40 GW of coal-fired capacity retirements occur by 2016 

largely because of the combination of MATS, relatively low natural 

gas prices, and relatively low electricity demand. (32 GW have 

been reported to EIA.)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Key results for the AEO2015 Reference case

23

• Expanding development of shale gas resources drives increased 

production and competitive prices for natural gas.

• In the years around MATS implementation (2016), coal use is low 

compared to history. But, as overall electricity demand and natural 

gas prices rise, coal use also increases. Coal consumption is 

steady -- about 1 billion tons in the 2020 time frame and then 

remains at about 990 million tons after 2030.

• Between 2015 and 2040, coal exports rise by about 60 million tons 

– predicated on rising demand for coal internationally.

• 1.1 GW of coal capacity additions (0.7GW planned)

• Delivered coal prices increase gradually through 2040 at an 

average rate of 0.7% per year (on a per ton basis) due to declining 

coal mine productivity and slightly higher transportation costs.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
U.S. electricity net generation

trillion kilowatthours

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015

24

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

13%

Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts towards larger 

shares of natural gas and renewable generation 

27%

19%

39%

13%

1%

Nuclear

Oil and other liquids

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables

2013 History Projections

16%

18%

34%

31%

<1%

1993

11%

13%

19%

53%

4%

27%

18%

38%

16%

1%

2025 2040

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2040

25

billion kilowatthours

Coal

Petroleum

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Renewables

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Note: Includes generation from plants in both the electric power and end-use sectors.

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review; 

Projections: AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015).

History 2013 Projections

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Delivered prices of natural gas and coal to the electric power sector in the 

Reference case

0

5

10

15

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

coal

High Oil and 

Gas Resource

case: Gas

High Oil and

Gas Resource 

case: Coal

average delivered fuel prices to electric power 

plants, 2013 dollars per million Btu

26

0

20

40

60

80

2005 2015 2025 2035

History Projections

2013 2013 dollars per megawatthour

Power generation fuel costs

coal steam

natural gas

natural gas

Short Term Energy Outlook

November 2015

Source: AEO2015 Reference case (April 2015).

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Electricity Generation for Coal and Gas in the Reference case and the High 

Oil and Gas Resource Case, 1980-2040

27

billion kilowatthours

Reference case:

Coal

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Reference 

case: 

Natural Gas

High Oil and 

Gas Resource 

case: Gas

High Oil and 

Gas Resource 

case: Coal

Note: Includes generation from plants in both the electric power and end-use sectors.

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review; 

Projections: AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015).

History 2013 Projections

Short Term Energy Outlook

November 2015

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
28

Average capacity utilization of natural gas combined cycle and 

coal generating capacity, 2008-2040

percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Natural Gas

Coal

History 2013 Projections

Source: AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
28 Gigawatts of coal capacity to retire in 2015 and 2016

29

U.S. electricity generation capacity retirements

gigawatts

Source: Form EIA-860 and AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015) 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Renewables/Other 0.6

Nuclear 3.2

Natural Gas and Petroleum 45.8

Coal 40.1

History 2013 Projections

Cumulative 

Totals:

2014-2040

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
30

Source: AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015) 

*MATS compliance assumed to begin

Electric Net Summer Generating Capacity by Fuel, 2008-2040 

(gigawatts)

Fuel 2008 2011 2013 2015 2016* 2020 2030 2040

Coal 311 316 304 290 269 263 260 260

 Electric Power Sector 308 313 300 286 266 260 257 257

 End-Use Sectors 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3

Natural Gas & Petroleum 450 463 470 480 486 482 519 595

Nuclear Power 101 101 99 100 100 101 102 105

Renewable Sources 117 143 167 192 202 207 227 275

Other (includes pumped 

storage)

25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26

Total 1004 1049 1065 1085 1082 1079 1133 1261

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal production by region, 1970-2040

31

million short tons

Appalachia

Interior

Western

Total U.S.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2013 Projections

Source: AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015)

Short Term Energy Outlook

November 2015

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Average minemouth coal prices by region, 1980-2040

32

2013 dollars per short ton

Appalachia

Interior

West

AEO2015: U.S. 

Average

AEO2014

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

2013 History Projections

Source: AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015) and AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal exports by major supply region, 2010-2040

33

million short tons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Western

Appalachia

U.S. Total

Source: 2010-2012: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Distribution Report;

2013-2040: AEO2015 Reference Case (April 2015).

Interior

2013

Short Term Energy Outlook

November 2015

1,376

1,770

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2010 2020 2030 2040

World Seaborne Coal Trade

million short tons

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Review of Analysis of Draft Clean 

Power Plan Rule (May 2015)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C. 34

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Draft EPA Clean Power Plan (CPP) cases considered by EIA 

demonstrate potential impacts that may occur under the Final Rule

Case name Description

Reference (AEO)

EIA’s AEO2015 Reference case presents long-term annual projections of energy supply, 

demand, and prices through 2040. The Reference case is based generally on federal, 

state, and local laws and regulations in effect as of the end of October 2014. 

Policy Cases Regional CO2 emission intensity targets were developed and added as a modeling 

constraint, based on specified state-level CO2 emission intensity targets. 

Base Policy (CPP)

The Base Policy case models the proposed Clean Power Plan using the AEO2015 

Reference case as the underlying baseline, allowing regions to choose compliance 

strategies endogenously from among the four building blocks in EPA’s proposed Best 

System of Emissions Reduction. 

Policy Extension (CPPEXT)

The Policy Extension case extends CO2 reduction targets beyond 2030, in order to 

reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector by 45% below 2005 levels in 2040, using 

the AEO2015 Reference case as the baseline. 

Policy with New Nuclear 

(CPPNUC)

The CPPNUC case assumes that generation from new nuclear power plants that are not 

currently under construction is counted in compliance calculations in the same manner as 

new renewable generation.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

35

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
The proposed CPP rule causes a significant reduction in generation 

from coal

total electricity generation

trillion kilowatthours

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and Analysis of Impacts of the Clean Power Plan, May 2015

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040

History 2013 2013 2013

Reference Base Policy Policy Extension

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

Natural gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

27%

13%

19%

39%

Petroleum liquids and other

31%

18%

16%

34%

29%

27%

16%

26%

32%

32%

17%

18%

36

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
From 2014-2040, CPP case retirements (mostly coal) are 66 GW above 

Reference; renewable capacity adds are 174 GW above Reference 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Reference Clean Power Plan

(CPP) Base Policy

CPP Extension CPP with New

Nuclear

gigawatts

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and Analysis of Impacts of the Clean Power Plan, May 2015

-200

-100

0

additions

other 

renewables

wind 

solar 

natural gas

coal

nuclear

retirements

coal

natural gas

nuclear

Cumulative additions and retirements, 2014-40

37

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
38

Coal demand regions

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
39

Net summer coal-fired generating capacity in the electric power 

sector by coal demand region, 2013 and 2040

gigawatts

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

01NE (CT,MA,ME,NH,RI,VT)

02YP (NY,PA,NJ)

03S1 (WV,MD,DC,DE)

04S2 (VA,NC,SC)

05GF (GA,FL)

06OH (OH)

07EN (IN,IL,MI,WI)

08KT (KY,TN)

09AM (AL,MS)

10C1 (MN,ND,SD)

11C2 (IA,NE,MO,KS)

12WS (TX,LA,OK,AR)

13MT (MT,WY,ID)

14CU (CO,UT,NV)

15ZN (AZ,NM)

16PC (AK,HI,WA,OR,CA)

2013

AEO2015 Reference

CPP Base Policy

U.S. Total 

2013: 300

AEO2015: 257

CPP: 205

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

Source: AEO2015 Reference Case (NEMS run ref2015.d021915a); and CPP Base Policy Case (NEMS run rf15_111_d030615a)

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
40

Cumulative net summer coal-fired capacity retirements by coal 

demand region, 2014-2040

gigawatts

0 5 10 15 20

01NE (CT,MA,ME,NH,RI,VT)

02YP (NY,PA,NJ)

03S1 (WV,MD,DC,DE)

04S2 (VA,NC,SC)

05GF (GA,FL)

06OH (OH)

07EN (IN,IL,MI,WI)

08KT (KY,TN)

09AM (AL,MS)

10C1 (MN,ND,SD)

11C2 (IA,NE,MO,KS)

12WS (TX,LA,OK,AR)

13MT (MT,WY,ID)

14CU (CO,UT,NV)

15ZN (AZ,NM)

16PC (AK,HI,WA,OR,CA)

AEO2015 Reference

CPP Base Policy

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

U.S. Total 

AEO2015: 40

CPP: 90

Source: AEO2015 Reference Case (NEMS run ref2015.d021915a); and CPP Base Policy Case (NEMS run rf15_111_d030615a)

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
The proposed Clean Power Plan reduces average capacity 

factors and reduces heat rates for coal-fired generating units 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

capacity factor (percent)

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC

2020 2030

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and Analysis of Impacts of the Clean Power Plan, May 2015

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

2020 2030 2040

percent change in average coal plant heat rate 

(Btu/kWh) relative to AEO2105 Ref. case

CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC

41

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal production levels for the Base Policy case (CPP) are 

substantially below baseline – 20% lower in 2020 and 32% 

lower in 2025 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

million short tons

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC

2020 2030

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and Analysis of Impacts of the Clean Power Plan, May 2015

• Coal production in the Base 

Policy case increases by 151 

million tons after 2024 as 

utilization of remaining coal units 

improves due to increasing 

electricity demand, expanded 

use of renewables, rising natural 

gas prices, and static CPP 

targets in the post-2030 period 

42

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Regional coal production impacts vary 

across regions and scenario

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

Appalachia Interior Western

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and Analysis of Impacts of the Clean Power Plan, May 2015

43

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal production, AEO2015 and Draft CPP in 2040 (vs. 2013) 

(million short tons)

44

5 | 4 (14)

30 | 27 (28)

1 | 1 (2) 239 | 181 (136)

130 | 110 (125)

83 | 77 (128)

16 | 15 (19)

29 | 24 (30)

34 | 35 (41)

429 | 333 (374)*

4 | 4 (2)** 58 | 52 (42)

U.S. Total: 

1,117 | 892 (985)

* Includes production from all 

mines in Wyoming’s Powder 

River Basin.

** Includes production from 

mines in both Alaska and 

Washington.

60 | 29 (46)

Source: 2013: Mine Safety and Health Administration, Form 7000-2, “Quarterly Mine and Employment and Coal Production Report;” 

2040: AEO2015 Reference Case (NEMS run ref2015.d021915a); and CPP Base Policy Case (NEMS run rf15_111_d030615a).

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Final rule delays start, improves phase-in, 

changes coverage, and increases flexibility

Proposed Rule Final Rule

Compliance begins in 2020 with one interim period from 

2020 – 2029; Final targets in 2030

Compliance start delayed to 2022 with three interim 

periods (2022–2024, 2025-2027, 2028-2029); Final targets 

in 2030

Four building blocks (heat rate improvement, switching 

to NG, zero-carbon technologies, EE)

Three building blocks (heat rate improvement, switching 

to NG, zero-carbon technologies); EE counts for 

compliance but is not included in target calculation

Existing nonhydro renewables and incremental (new) 

renewables are included; end-use renewables excluded

Existing renewables excluded; incremental (post-2012) 

additions only; end-use renewables (incremental) 

included

Existing “at-risk” and incremental (post-2012) nuclear 

included

Existing (“at-risk”) nuclear excluded; incremental (post2012) additions only

Fossil emission rates based on each State’s existing 

capacity resulting in considerable variation

Source specific (fossil steam, NGCC) rates determined at 

interconnect level reducing variation

Existing fossil steam, NGCC, and “large” or “higherutilization” combustion turbines includedExisting fossil steam, NGCC; all combustion turbines 

excluded

Mass-based targets described but not specified Two mass-based targets specified for fossil (existing, all)

Credit trading described but not sufficiently specified Credit trading options more fully defined

45 Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Phase-in of CPP requirements

46

• Implementation start shifts to 2022 from 2020, but still 

reaches mandated final targets in 2030

• Interim period is split into three steps (2022-2024, 2025-

2027, and 2028-2029) with separate performance rates

– Earlier targets are less stringent than in proposal – imposing a ‘glide path’ that 

will lessen the near-term cliff seen originally

– Final rule includes a new early incentive program to certain renewable and EE 

projects that provide/reduce generation in 2020 and 2021

• State plans due September 2016, grace period until 

September 2018 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
47

Final Clean Power Plan rule revises 

calculation of targets and building blocks

• Final rule sets source-specific CO2 emission rates – one for 

fossil-fired steam plants and one for natural gas combined 

cycle units – that are the same nation-wide, and initially 

calculated based on the three major interconnects

• State rate goals and mass goals are also calculated using the 

source-specific rates and the state mix of generation types

• Target rates were based on three building blocks – eliminating 

EE from the four blocks used for the proposal

– Coal heat rate improvement of 2.1%-4.3% (less than 6% used originally)

– Increased dispatch of NGCC based on 75% capacity factor 

– New renewable potential assumed in target calculation is higher than original; 

existing renewables, existing (“at-risk”) and under construction nuclear excluded

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Increased emphasis on trading as flexibility 

mechanism: proposed federal plan/model rules

48

• Role of EPA model rules: both rate and mass-based programs 

can implement trading without formal interstate agreements

– EPA’s proposed model rules/federal plan to be finalized Summer 2016

• Rate-based plans: emission rate credits (ERCs)– represent 

MWh of zero-emitting generation or avoided generation 

through EE – can be traded, and used as MWh in the 

denominator of the rate calculation for state holding the ERC

• Mass-based plans: allowances representing carbon emissions 

are traded directly, as long as each state holds enough 

allowances to meet its own emission cap.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Sources used for compliance are revised

49

• Emissions from existing (online by Jan. 8, 2014) fossil steam 

and gas combined cycle plants are included

– Greater than 25 MW

– Simple cycle combustion turbines excluded, regardless of output

• Compliance with a state rate-based target can include new, 

non-emitting sources or EE

– New nuclear or renewable generation online after 2012 (not all existing), 

including uprates

– End-use renewable generation can be counted

– Energy efficiency can be counted (beyond ‘baseline’ amounts)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
EIA Data Browsers and Energy Mapping System

50

Electricity Data Browser - http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/

Coal Data Browser (Beta) - http://www.eia.gov/beta/coal/data/browser/

Nuclear Outage Browser (Beta) - http://www.eia.gov/beta/outages/

Energy Mapping System - http://www.eia.gov/state/maps.cfm

Short-Term Energy Outlook - http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/query/

Annual Energy Outlook - http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/

International Energy Outlook - http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
51

For more information

greg.adams@eia.gov, (202) 586-7343

diane.kearney@eia.gov, (202) 586-2415

ayaka.jones@eia.gov, (202) 586-0998

michael.mellish@eia.gov, (202) 586-2136

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

EIA Information Center

InfoCtr@eia.gov

Our average response time is within three 

business days.

(202) 586-8800

24-hour automated information line about EIA 

and frequently asked questions.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

December 1, 2015 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2016 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.