SR/OIAF/2009-03

An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009

Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and

Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook

April 2009

Energy Information Administration

Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting

U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585

This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical

and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should

be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as

advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other

organization.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case ii

Preface and Contacts

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the independent statistical and analytical

agency within the Department of Energy. EIA provides timely, high-quality energy

information and prepares objective, transparent analyses for use of Congress, the

Administration, and the public. EIA does not, however, take positions on policy issues.

Because of EIA’s statutory independence with respect to the content of its energy

information program, the analysis presented herein is strictly its own and should not be

construed as representing the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the

Administration.

The model projections in this report are not statements of what will happen but of what

might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The reference case

projections are business-as-usual trend forecasts, given known technology, technological

and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policyneutral starting point that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose,

advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed

to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of scheduled regulatory changes,

when defined, are reflected.

The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting prepared this report. General

questions concerning the report can be directed to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov,

202/586-2222), Director of the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, and J. Alan

Beamon (joseph.beamon@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2025), Director of its Coal and Electric

Power Division. Specific questions about the report can be directed to the following

analysts:

Macroeconomic Analysis........ Kay Smith (kay.smith@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1132)

Buildings .................................John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-4815)

Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.deo.gov, 202/586-4791)

Industrial.................................. Amelia Elson (amelia.elson@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1420)

Elizabeth Sendich (elizabeth.sendich@eia.doe.gov, 202/5867145)

Transportation John Maples (john.maples@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1757)

Electricity ................................ Laura Martin (laura.martin@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1494)

Jeffrey Jones (jeffrey.jones@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2038)

Lori Aniti (lori.aniti@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2867)

Coal ......................................... Diane Kearney (diane.kearney@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2415)

Michael Mellish (michael.mellish@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2136)

Renewables.............................. Chris Namovicz (cnamovicz@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-7120)

Liquid Fuels............................. William Brown (William.brown@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-8181)

Natural Gas..............................Joe Benneche (jbennech@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-6132)
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case iii

For ordering information and questions on other energy statistics available from EIA,

please contact EIA’s National Energy Information Center at:

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Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 1

1. Introduction

This paper reviews an updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009) reference case

that will be used as the starting point for pending and future analyses of proposed energy

and environmental legislation. The development of an updated reference case is

motivated primarily by the enactment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

(ARRA) in mid-February 2009.

1

 ARRA provides significant new Federal funding, loan

guarantees, and tax credits to stimulate investments in energy efficiency and renewable

energy. The reference case in the recently published AEO2009, which reflected laws and

regulations in effect as of November 2008, does not include ARRA. The potential effects

of some ARRA provisions are large enough that an analysis of certain aspects of

proposed energy and environmental legislation that did not include ARRA in the

reference case could provide misleading results.

2

 Use of an updated reference case that

includes ARRA as the baseline for future analyses of proposed changes in laws and

regulations will help to avoid this problem.

The need to develop an updated reference case following the passage of ARRA also

provides the Energy Information Administration (EIA) with an opportunity to update the

macroeconomic outlook for the United States and global economies, which has been

changing at an unusually rapid rate in recent months. Ordinarily, the macroeconomic

assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook reference case are updated annually, in the

fall, based on economic projections provided by IHS Global Insight prior to development

of the modeling runs presented in the Annual Energy Outlook. However, in an

environment where the macroeconomic expectations are changing rapidly, it is

appropriate to update the macroeconomic assumptions as the energy-specific provisions

of ARRA are incorporated into EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

Both the revised macroeconomic outlook and the energy-related provisions of ARRA

impact the updated reference case. Therefore, the difference between the recently

published AEO2009 reference case and the updated reference case incorporating both

ARRA and the updated economic forecast reflects more than the energy-related

provisions in ARRA alone. Although future analyses will focus on the difference

between the updated reference case and cases using that as a baseline and incorporating

proposed changes in laws and regulations, users of EIA’s projections may want to

understand the relative roles of ARRA and the change in the macroeconomic outlook in

driving the difference between the updated reference case and the one presented in

AEO2009.

To provide insights into this question, this paper presents, in addition to the AEO2009

reference case and the updated reference case, a “no-stimulus” case that reflects

1

 Several other changes including updates to near-term world oil prices, reinstatement of the Clean Air

Interstate Rule, and final action on Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for model year 2011 were

also incorporated.

2

 For example, ARRA provisions to spur the use of renewable energy, including a 3-year extension of the

production tax credit for eligible renewables, are important enough to impact the analysis of proposals for a

renewable electricity standard.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 2

projections without ARRA. The effect of ARRA alone, including its energy-related

provisions and its stimulative impact on the economy, can be roughly estimated by

comparing the no-stimulus case to the updated reference case.3

In addition to a different macroeconomic outlook, the updated reference case also reflects

changes made in the parameters and/or structure of NEMS to reflect the specific energyrelated provisions of ARRA. In some cases, for example, the extension of production tax

credits for eligible renewables, it is relatively straightforward to incorporate ARRA

provisions. In other cases, where the provisions in ARRA fund initiatives that break new

ground, such as investment in “smart grid” technologies, modeling changes to reflect

ARRA are inherently more speculative. For some ARRA policies, both the nature of the

investments to be made, the implementation strategy for making those investments, and

the effectiveness of the program in increasing energy efficiency or promoting greater use

of renewable energy are all uncertain. In all cases, the modeling changes adopted reflect

the understanding of EIA analysts of the intended level and implementation of funding,

and estimates of impacts based on available literature and/or expert judgment.

The energy-specific provisions of ARRA that were represented in some fashion in NEMS

include:

 Weatherization and assisted housing

 Energy efficiency and conservation block grant programs

 State energy programs

 Plug-in hybrid vehicle tax credit

 Electric vehicle tax credit

 Updated tax credits for renewables

 Loan guarantees for renewables and biofuels

 Support for carbon capture and storage (CCS)

 Smart grid expenditures.

Other major changes in NEMS to reflect changes in energy markets, laws, and

regulations since the development of the AEO2009 reference case include:

 Update of macroeconomic assumptions

 Update of near-term fuel price projections

 Temporary reinstatement of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)

 Update of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.

The next section of the paper summarizes the combined impacts of changes to the

reference case. It is followed by two sections that briefly describe the changes made to

implement the updated reference case relative to the version of the reference case

included in the AEO2009 as published in March 2009. The Appendix to this report

provides the standard set of Annual Energy Outlook tables in a format that facilitates

3

 The comparison is only a rough approximation, for reasons discussed below in the section on

macroeconomic assumptions.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 3

comparisons of the updated reference case to the no-stimulus case and the AEO2009

reference case published in March 2009.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 4

2. Summary of Impacts

The primary factors driving the differences between the published AEO2009 reference

case and the no-stimulus case are the updated macroeconomic forecast and the

adjustments to the near-term world oil prices. However, other factors including the

updated CAFE standards and the reintroduction of CAIR have impacts in specific sectors.

Relative to the published AEO2009 reference case:

 Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates are substantially lower in the short term;

although the long-run growth rate is only lower by 0.1 percentage points over the 23

years from 2007 to 2030. Both investment and exports show the largest downward

revisions due to higher projected inflation and interest rates and lower expected

foreign growth. Most of the differences between the updated reference with ARRA

and the no-stimulus case occur within the first 6 years of the projection period, during

which the ARRA provisions dampen the depth of the economic downturn. However,

by 2030 real GDP is higher in the no-stimulus case as a result of higher investment,

lower interest rates, and lower inflation at the end of the period in the no-stimulus

case.

 Industrial output growth is lower, as exports and investment show slower projected

growth. Machinery and primary metals industrial growth slows as these sectors are

impacted by exports and investment demand. The reduction in industrial output is

due to revisions in forecasted final demands rather than any update in recent historical

output. Most of the differences in industrial output growth occur between the original

and revised baselines rather than between the updated reference case with ARRA and

the no-stimulus case.

When comparing the no-stimulus case to the updated reference case with ARRA, the

largest impacts are seen in the renewable electricity and buildings sectors. The key

differences include:

Renewable Electricity

 A significant expansion in the use of renewable fuels for electricity generation,

particularly in the near-term. The extension of key Federal tax credits and the new

loan guarantee program in ARRA both stimulate increased renewable generation

relative to the published AEO2009 reference case and the no-stimulus case (Figure 1).

 By 2012, wind generation with the ARRA is expected to be more than twice that

projected in the no-stimulus case, 201 billion kilowatthours compared to 86 billion

kilowatthours and estimated generation of 53 billion kilowatthours in 2008. Although

wind capacity growth is projected to slow significantly after the expiration of the

Federal tax credits in 2012, by 2030 total installed wind capacity is projected to be 67

percent greater because of the ARRA-stimulated growth than in the no-stimulus case.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 5

 Geothermal capacity is also projected to grow significantly more than in the nostimulus case. Installed geothermal capacity in 2013 is 16 percent greater in the

updated reference case with ARRA than in the no-stimulus case, 3.0 gigawatts,

compared with 2.6 gigawatts.

 Projected additions of new biomass capacity are also accelerated by the renewable

electricity provisions of the ARRA, and by 2030, projected installed capacity is 18

percent higher compared to the no-stimulus case.

Figure 1. Non-Hydroelectric Renewable Generation

(billion kilowatthours)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

No-Stimulus

Updated Reference (with ARRA)

Source: National Energy Modeling System runs STIMULUS.D041409A and NOSTIMLS.D041409A.

Buildings

 Weatherization and efficiency improvements spurred by ARRA funding affect

household heating and cooling energy use the most, reducing heating consumption by

1.7 percent in 2030 and cooling consumption by 3.4 percent in 2030.

 The provisions of ARRA lead to lower household energy bills. Over the 2009 to

2030 period, annual non-transportation household energy expenditures average $64

(real 2007 dollars) lower with ARRA, with a peak year difference of $98 (4.5

percent) lower in 2028.

 ARRA funding for Federal buildings and the State Energy Program funds efficiency

improvements for public buildings, reducing commercial fuel oil consumption by 3.0

percent in 2030.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 6

 The ARRA funding and emphasis on renewable energy projects foster an increase in

commercial sector photovoltaic capacity of 121 megawatts (15 percent) by 2011. The

removal of the $4,000 cap on the investment tax credit for distributed wind turbines

also provides an added boost, leading to a 120 megawatts (527 percent) increase in

commercial sector wind capacity by 2016 in the updated reference case with ARRA.

 ARRA reduces commercial sector energy expenditures by an average of $5.7 billion

(2.7 percent) annually (real 2007 dollars) between 2010 and 2030.

 Excluding transportation-related expenditures, total residential and commercial

energy bills are $13 billion (2.6 percent) and $21 billion (3.8 percent) lower

respectively in 2020 and 2030 (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Expenditures

(billion 2007 dollars)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

No-Stimulus

Updated Reference (with ARRA)

Note: Excludes transportation-related expenditures.

Source: National Energy Modeling System runs STIMULUS.D041409A and NOSTIMLS.D041409A.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

 Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the updated reference case with

ARRA are 1.3 percent lower than in the no-stimulus case in 2013 because of

ARRA’s impacts on renewable electricity generation and overall energy

consumption (Figure 3). By 2030, they continue to be below the level in the nostimulus case, but only by 0.6 percent. Again, the emission changes largely result

from ARRA’s energy-efficiency and renewable incentives that lead to reduced

use of fossil fuels.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 7

Figure 3. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

(million metric tons)

5000

5250

5500

5750

6000

6250

6500

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

No-Stimulus

Updated Reference (with ARRA)

Source: National Energy Modeling System runs STIMULUS.D041409A and NOSTIMLS.D041409A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 8

3. Representing the Provisions of ARRA in the National Energy

Modeling System

Weatherization, Assisted Housing, and Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block

Grants

ARRA allocates a total of $9.45 billion to weatherize and/or increase the energy

efficiency of low-income housing and assist local governments in implementing energy

efficiency programs. In NEMS, this increase in funding results in the weatherization of

about three million homes over the next 2 years. Energy savings estimates for the

increased investment in weatherization for heating and cooling are based on Oak Ridge

National Laboratory’s analysis of the impacts of weatherization programs and their

persistence for 20 years. The regional impact of the increase in funding is based on the

Department of Energy’s State allocation formula.4

State Energy Program

ARRA allocates $3.1 billion for States to implement or enhance energy efficiency

programs. While the money can be spent on a variety of programs, the ARRA

specifically mentions the adoption of building codes, specifically the International

Energy Conservation Code (IECC) 2009. To account for the impact of this funding in

NEMS, it is assumed that States will adopt and enforce the IECC 2006 code by 2011,

while adopting and enforcing the IECC 2009 code by 2018. Likewise, States are

assumed to adopt and enforce the ASHRAE 90.1-2007 standard by 2018 for nonresidential construction. States and local governments are also assumed to use lower

hurdle rates (specifically the 10-year Treasury bill rate) when purchasing energy-using

equipment for government-owned facilities during years when ARRA funding is

available.

Plug-in Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Tax Credits

ARRA contains several changes to the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) tax credit

originally included in the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 that have been

included in the updated reference case. For example, ARRA allows a $2,500 tax credit

for the purchase of qualified PHEVs with a battery capacity of at least 4 kilowatthours.

Starting at a battery capacity of 5 kilowatthours, PHEVs earn an additional $417 per

kilowatthour battery credit up to a maximum of $5,000. The maximum total PHEV

credit that can be earned is capped at $7,500 per vehicle. The PHEV tax credit eligibility

and phase-out are specific to an individual vehicle manufacturer. The credits are phased

out once cumulative sales of qualified vehicles reach 200,000 vehicles. The phase-out

period begins two calendar quarters after the first date in which a manufacturer’s sales

reach the cumulative sales maximum after December 31, 2009. The credit is reduced to

4

 Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Estimating the National Effects of the U.S. Department of Energy’s

Weatherization Assistance Program with State-Level Data: A Meta-evaluation Using Studies from 1993 to

2005, September, 2005 and U.S. Department of Energy Website:

http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/weatherization/recovery_act.cfm.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 9

50 percent of the total value for the first two calendar quarters of the phase-out period and

then to 25 percent for the third and forth calendar quarters before being phased out

entirely thereafter. The credit applies to vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating of

less than 14,000 pounds.

AARA also allows a tax credit of 10 percent against the cost of a qualified plug-in allelectric vehicle with a battery capacity of at least 4 kilowatthours. This credit is subject

to the same phase-out schedule as PHEVs.

Updated Tax Credits for Renewables

Prior to the passage of ARRA, the production tax credit (PTC) for certain renewable

technologies was to expire on January 1, 2010. ARRA extended this date to January 1,

2013, for wind and January 1, 2014, for all other eligible renewable resources. In

addition, ARRA allows companies to choose an investment tax credit (ITC) of 30 percent

in lieu of the PTC and allows for a grant in lieu of this credit to be funded by the U.S.

Treasury. Under most circumstances for most technologies, the full PTC would appear to

be more valuable than the 30 percent ITC; however, the difference is often small. A

recent report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory5 suggests that qualitative

factors, such as the lack of partners with sufficient tax liability, may cause companies to

favor the ITC grant option in the current economic environment. As a result, in this

analysis it has been assumed that eligible renewable technologies will select the ITC

grant option.

Loan Guarantees for Renewables, Biofuels, and Transmission Projects

ARRA provides $6 billion to pay the cost of guarantees for loans authorized by the

Energy Policy Act of 2005. The purpose of these loan guarantees is to stimulate the

deployment of conventional renewable and transmission technologies and innovative

biofuels technologies. However, to qualify eligible projects must be under construction

by September 30, 2011, meaning that longer-term projects that are not already

progressing are unlikely to be able to qualify. The face value of the loans that may be

guaranteed by this appropriation will depend on the subsidy costs assigned to the projects

that are eventually selected. For example, if the average subsidy cost were 10 percent of

the face value of the loans, the $6 billion appropriated would support loan guarantees on

$60 billion worth of debt financing. This provision has been represented by lowering the

cost of financing by 2 percentage points for all eligible renewable projects brought on by

2015. The 2015 date, 4 years after the September 30, 2011, start of construction cutoff

date, was chosen to allow for the construction period associated with most renewable

generating technologies.

A different approach was taken to represent the possible impacts on innovative biofuel

projects. It was assumed that the availability of loan guarantees would allow certain

identified projects to be built that would otherwise not proceed under the current financial

5

 National Renewable Energy Laboratory, PTC, ITC, or Cash Grant?, LBNL-1642E, NREL/TP-6A2-

45359, March 2009, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 10

climate facing the industry. In the AEO2009 reference case, with assumptions developed

prior to the current economic downturn, domestic cellulosic ethanol production was

projected to reach 150 million gallons in 2012. However, a review of projects proceeding

towards construction, suggests that, without assistance, only about 74 million gallons of

domestic cellulosic ethanol production capacity will be built by 2012, because financing

for these developers has become extremely difficult to obtain and some projects have

been canceled. With the loan guarantees arising from the stimulus package, it is assumed

that the 2012 production rises back to about 110 to 170 million gallons, with additional

capacity additions occurring under the same financing structure as in AEO2009.

Support for CCS

ARRA provides $3.4 billion for additional research and development on fossil energy

technologies. A portion of this funding is expected to be used to fund projects under the

Clean Coal Power Initiative program, focusing on projects that capture and sequester

greenhouse gases. To reflect the impact of this provision, the updated reference case

assumes that an additional 1 gigawatt of coal capacity with CCS will be stimulated by

2017.

Smart Grid Expenditures

ARRA provides $4.5 billion for smart grid demonstration projects. While somewhat

difficult to define, smart grid technologies generally include a wide array of

measurement, communications, and control equipment employed throughout the

transmission and distribution system that will enable real-time monitoring of the

production, flow, and use of power from generator to consumer. Among other things,

once deployed, these smart grid technologies are expected to enable more efficient use of

the transmission and distribution grid, lower line losses, facilitate greater use of

renewables, and provide information to utilities and their customers that will lead to

greater investment in energy efficiency and reduced peak load demands. The funds

provided will not fund a widespread implementation of smart grid technologies. In July

20046 the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) estimated that full deployment would

cost $165 billion. However, successful deployment of several demonstration projects

could stimulate more rapid investment than would otherwise occur.

Several changes were made throughout the NEMS to represent the impacts of the smart

grid funding provided in ARRA. In the electricity module, it was assumed that line

losses would fall slightly, peak loads would fall as customers shifted their usage patterns,

and customers would be more responsive to pricing signals. In a 2008 report, EPRI7

estimated that smart grid technologies could reduce line losses in 2030 by between 3.5

and 28.0 billion kilowatthours.8 Historically, line losses, expressed as the percentage of

6

 Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California, Power Delivery System of the Future, A

Preliminary Estimate of Costs and Benefits, 1011001, July 2004.

7

 Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California, The Green Grid, Energy Savings and Carbon

Emissions Reductions Enabled by a Smart Grid, 1016905, June 2008.

8

 These figures are relative to the baseline projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 2008.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 11

electricity lost, have been falling for many years as utilities make investments to replace

aging or failing equipment. This trend was incorporated in the AEO2009 reference case,

which assumed that line losses would fall from roughly 6.9 percent in 2008 to 5.7 percent

in 2030. In the updated reference case, it is assumed that the Federal expenditures on

smart grid technologies will stimulate further efforts to lower losses, reducing them by an

additional 10 to15 billion kilowatthours, roughly one-third the maximum EPRI estimate.

In the same EPRI report, it was also estimated that smart grid technologies had the

potential to reduce peak demand by 5 percent in 2030 through the increased deployment

of demand response programs. In the updated reference case, it is assumed that the

Federal expenditures on smart grid technologies will stimulate efforts that reduce peak

demand in 2030 by 1 percent from what they otherwise would be. Load is shifted to offpeak hours, so net energy consumed remains largely constant.

It was also assumed that increased investment in smart grid technologies, particularly

smart meters on buildings and homes, would make consumers more responsive to

electricity price changes. To represent this, the price elasticity of demand for residential

and commercial electricity was increased for certain uses.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 12

4. Other Key Changes in the Updated Reference Case

Update of Macroeconomic Assumptions

The published AEO2009 reference case used November 2008 macroeconomic projections

from IHS Global Insight as a starting point. However, since November, all

macroeconomic forecasts have reduced their short-run economic growth projections and

delayed the beginning of the eventual economic recovery. For example, November’s

forecast showed real GDP declining by 1.3 percent in 2009, before rebounding to 2.2

percent growth in 2010. In the same forecast, IHS Global Insight expected job losses

between 350,000 and 400,000 per month for November and December. However, actual

employment losses were much larger, exceeding 500,000 per month, with a total of 1.9

million jobs lost in the final 4 months of 2008. As a result, forecasts of real GDP growth

in the first half of 2009 have worsened and the eventual economic recovery, i.e. first

positive growth expected, is projected to starter in the last quarter of 2009 rather than the

second quarter of 2009, as had been expected in earlier analyses.

The updated reference case discussed in this paper is based on a February 2009

macroeconomic projection through 2030 that was also provided by IHS Global Insight.

This projection, which was developed before final enactment of ARRA, reflects a

stimulus package that differs in minor respects from the package that was ultimately

enacted, but the differences are not material for the purposes of this analysis. For

example, the total stimulus package is $780 billion instead of $787 billion. In Global

Insight’s February 2009 forecast, annual real GDP growth rates are -2.7 percent and 2.0

percent for 2009 and 2010, respectively.

The no-stimulus case presented in this paper was developed based on a contemporaneous

simulation from IHS Global Insight under the counterfactual assumption that no

economic stimulus program was enacted. The simulation provided by HIS Global Insight

for this case runs through 2019 only. EIA staff extended that simulation through 2030

using the exogenous variables, such as population, exchange rates, trading countries’

GDP, marginal tax rates, full-employment unemployment rate, some categories of

government expenditures and depreciation rates, from the simulation with ARRA that

runs through 2030.

The March 2009 control forecast has reduced short-term growth considerably—2009

growth at -3.7 percent compared to the February 2009 estimate of -2.7; 2010 growth at

1.4 percent compared to the February estimate of 2.2 percent—although the difference in

the lower growth was due to a sharp revision in fourth quarter 2008 growth as well as

larger-than-expected employment losses and not due to the differences in the stimulus

package. Global Insight’s monthly control’s forecast horizon is typically 10 years;

however, four times per year the horizon is extended out 30 years. Since February’s

forecast horizon is 30 years, EIA staff used the February forecast as a revised

macroeconomic baseline.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 13

Update of Near-Term Oil Price Projections

The global financial crisis and recession combined with the provisions of ARRA lead to

lower expected world oil price assumptions in the near- and mid-term. Furthermore,

increased pessimism regarding the depth, duration, and scope of the current global

recession, the substantial decline in labor and material costs in the oil industry, which will

lower the costs of developing new oil production capacity, and the expectation that

certain provisions of the ARRA will lower petroleum product demand in the United

States all point to lower oil prices over the next decade than previously expected.

However, the global economy is expected to begin recovering in 2010 and return to longterm trend growth in subsequent years. Therefore, the oil price assumptions after 2020

are the same as those in the previously published AEO2009 reference case (Figure 4).

Figure 4. World Oil Prices

(2007 dollars per barrel)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

Published AEO2009 Reference

Updated Reference (with ARRA)

Source: National Energy Modeling System runs AEO2009.D120908A and STIMULUS.D041409A.

Update of CAFE Standards

Light-duty vehicle fuel economy standards assumed in the AEO2009 reference case

reflect those proposed by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration through

model year 2015. For model years 2016 through 2020, fuel economy standards are

assumed to increase in stringency to achieve 35 miles per gallon on average for the new

light-duty vehicle fleet in 2020, after which the standards remain constant. The updated

reference case incorporates the fuel economy standards enacted for model year 2011 and

assumes updated standards for model years 2012 through 2020 that reflect adjustments

based on revisions in energy prices. As a result, projected new vehicle fuel economy in
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 14

the updated reference case is slightly lower (less than 1 mile per gallon) for model years

2011 through 2015.

Temporary Reinstatement of CAIR

The AEO2009 reference case did not include the sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide capand-trade programs for power plants called for in the Environmental Protection Agency’s

CAIR. The Circuit Court for the District of Columbia had vacated CAIR in a ruling

issued on July 11, 2008, and, as a result, it was not included in the AEO2009. However,

the Court temporarily reinstated the rule in a December 23, 2008, ruling and it is

represented in the updated reference case presented here.
Appendix

Comparison Tables
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 16

Table A1. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Production

 Crude Oil and Lease Condensate . . . . . . . . . . 10.73 11.98 11.98 12.19 12.71 12.57 14.06 15.62 15.47 15.96

 Natural Gas Plant Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.41 2.54 2.53 2.58 2.47 2.45 2.57 2.59 2.53 2.61

 Dry Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.84 20.66 20.58 20.95 21.15 20.13 22.08 24.13 23.67 24.26

 Coal1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.50 23.32 23.32 24.21 24.16 24.56 24.43 24.88 25.42 26.93

 Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.41 8.45 8.45 8.45 9.34 9.14 8.99 9.69 9.29 9.47

 Hydropower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.46 2.67 2.67 2.67 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.97 2.96 2.97

 Biomass2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.23 4.04 4.05 4.20 5.89 6.19 6.52 8.14 8.58 8.25

 Other Renewable Energy3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.97 1.59 1.91 1.54 1.76 2.97 1.74 2.12 3.08 2.19

 Other4 ............................... 0.94 0.70 0.70 0.85 0.96 0.93 1.07 1.07 1.01 1.15

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72.49 75.95 76.19 77.64 81.39 81.88 84.41 91.21 92.02 93.79

Imports

 Crude Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.90 18.07 18.23 17.76 17.58 17.54 16.09 15.56 15.25 15.39

 Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum5 . . . . . . . . . 6.97 5.88 6.01 5.59 5.79 5.76 5.67 6.07 5.95 6.33

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.72 3.17 3.10 3.27 3.30 3.39 3.37 2.74 2.35 2.58

 Other Imports6 ......................... 0.99 0.88 0.88 0.89 1.45 1.48 1.19 1.42 1.45 1.35

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34.59 27.99 28.22 27.51 28.11 28.17 26.31 25.78 25.01 25.65

Exports

 Petroleum7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.84 2.70 2.68 2.56 2.96 2.96 2.90 3.28 3.30 3.17

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.83 0.69 0.69 0.70 1.44 1.47 1.44 1.89 1.93 1.87

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.51 1.80 1.80 2.05 1.37 1.37 1.33 0.92 0.99 1.08

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.18 5.19 5.17 5.31 5.77 5.79 5.66 6.08 6.22 6.12

Discrepancy8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.20 0.18 -0.02 -0.40 -0.42 -0.39 -0.15 -0.16 -0.25

Consumption

 Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum9 . . . . . . . . . 40.75 37.91 38.21 37.89 38.57 38.67 38.93 40.57 40.30 41.60

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.70 22.63 22.50 23.20 23.09 22.13 24.09 25.04 24.15 25.04

 Coal10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.74 22.27 22.27 22.91 24.04 24.36 23.98 25.02 25.42 26.56

 Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.41 8.45 8.45 8.45 9.34 9.14 8.99 9.69 9.29 9.47

 Hydropower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.46 2.67 2.67 2.67 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.97 2.96 2.97

 Biomass11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.62 2.83 2.84 2.99 4.21 4.28 4.58 5.42 5.60 5.51

 Other Renewable Energy3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.97 1.59 1.91 1.54 1.76 2.97 1.74 2.12 3.08 2.19

 Other12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.23 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.22 0.16 0.22

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101.90 98.56 99.06 99.85 104.13 104.67 105.44 111.06 110.96 113.56

Prices (2007 dollars per unit)

 Petroleum (dollars per barrel)

 Imported Low Sulfur Light Crude Oil Price13 72.33 52.13 52.16 80.16 116.56 116.79 115.45 130.50 130.92 130.43

 Imported Crude Oil Price13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.83 49.05 48.99 77.56 114.35 114.50 112.05 124.45 124.36 124.60

 Natural Gas (dollars per million Btu)

 Price at Henry Hub . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.96 5.14 5.11 6.66 7.53 7.47 7.43 8.91 8.83 9.25

 Wellhead Price14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.22 4.55 4.51 5.88 6.65 6.60 6.56 7.87 7.80 8.17

 Natural Gas (dollars per thousand cubic feet)

 Wellhead Price14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.39 4.67 4.64 6.05 6.84 6.79 6.75 8.09 8.01 8.40

 Coal (dollars per ton)

 Minemouth Price15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.82 26.59 26.65 29.45 27.44 27.38 27.90 27.91 27.87 29.10

 Coal (dollars per million Btu)

 Minemouth Price15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.27 1.31 1.32 1.44 1.37 1.37 1.39 1.40 1.40 1.46

 Average Delivered Price16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.86 1.93 1.94 1.99 2.02 2.02 1.99 2.09 2.09 2.08

 Average Electricity Price

 (cents per kilowatthour) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 8.3 8.3 9.0 9.6 9.3 9.4 10.4 10.1 10.4
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 17

Table A1. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Prices (nominal dollars per unit)

 Petroleum (dollars per barrel)

 Imported Low Sulfur Light Crude Oil Price13 72.33 54.00 54.13 84.42 146.20 148.30 149.14 202.00 207.19 189.10

 Imported Crude Oil Price13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.83 50.81 50.84 81.69 143.44 145.39 144.74 192.63 196.81 180.66

 Natural Gas (dollars per million Btu)

 Price at Henry Hub . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.96 5.33 5.30 7.01 9.44 9.49 9.60 13.79 13.97 13.42

 Wellhead Price14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.22 4.71 4.68 6.19 8.34 8.38 8.48 12.18 12.34 11.85

 Natural Gas (dollars per thousand cubic feet)

 Wellhead Price14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.39 4.84 4.81 6.37 8.58 8.62 8.72 12.52 12.68 12.18

 Coal (dollars per ton)

 Minemouth Price15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.82 27.55 27.65 31.02 34.42 34.77 36.04 43.20 44.10 42.20

 Coal (dollars per million Btu)

 Minemouth Price15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.27 1.36 1.37 1.52 1.72 1.74 1.80 2.17 2.22 2.11

 Average Delivered Price16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.86 2.00 2.01 2.10 2.53 2.57 2.57 3.24 3.30 3.01

 Average Electricity Price

 (cents per kilowatthour) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 8.6 8.6 9.5 12.0 11.8 12.2 16.2 15.9 15.1

1

Includes waste coal.

2

Includes grid-connected electricity from wood and waste; biomass, such as corn, used for liquid fuels production; and non-electric energy demand from wood. Refer to

Table A17 for details. 3

Includes grid-connected electricity from landfill gas; biogenic municipal waste; wind; photovoltaic and solar thermal sources; and non-electric energy from renewable

sources, such as active and passive solar systems. Excludes electricity imports using renewable sources and nonmarketed renewable energy. See Table A17 for selected

nonmarketed residential and commercial renewable energy. 4

Includes non-biogenic municipal waste, liquid hydrogen, methanol, and some domestic inputs to refineries.

5

Includes imports of finished petroleum products, unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, blending components, and renewable fuels such as ethanol. 6

Includes coal, coal coke (net), and electricity (net).

7

Includes crude oil and petroleum products.

8

Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses, gains, and net storage withdrawals.

9

Includes petroleum-derived fuels and non-petroleum derived fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, and coal-based synthetic liquids. Petroleum coke, which is a solid, is

included. Also included are natural gas plant liquids, crude oil consumed as a fuel, and liquid hydrogen. Refer to Table A17 for detailed renewable liquid fuels consumption. 10Excludes coal converted to coal-based synthetic liquids.

11Includes grid-connected electricity from wood and wood waste, non-electric energy from wood, and biofuels heat and coproducts used in the production of liquid fuels, but

excludes the energy content of the liquid fuels. 12Includes non-biogenic municipal waste and net electricity imports.

13Weighted average price delivered to U.S. refiners.

14Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies.

15Includes reported prices for both open market and captive mines.

16Prices weighted by consumption; weighted average excludes residential and commercial prices, and export free-alongside-ship (f.a.s.) prices.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 natural gas supply values and natural gas wellhead price: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(2008/08) (Washington, DC, August 2008). 2007 coal

minemouth and delivered coal prices: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 2007 petroleum supply values: EIA, Petroleum

Supply Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0340(2007)/1 (Washington, DC, July 2008). 2007 low sulfur light crude oil price: EIA, Form EIA-856, “Monthly Foreign Crude Oil Acquisition

Report.” Other 2007 coal values: Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2007, DOE/EIA-0121(2007/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2008). Other 2007 values: EIA, Annual

Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A,

STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 18

Table A2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Source 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Energy Consumption

 Residential

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.50 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.49 0.52 0.51 0.52

 Kerosene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.78 0.77 0.77 0.72 0.60 0.59 0.60 0.51 0.50 0.51

 Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Subtotal 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.29 1.16 1.14 1.16 1.10 1.09 1.10

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.86 5.11 5.06 4.92 5.03 4.99 5.10 5.06 5.01 5.07

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Renewable Energy1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.50 0.50

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.75 4.81 4.79 4.80 5.10 5.04 5.12 5.78 5.67 5.69

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.40 11.72 11.62 11.44 11.78 11.66 11.86 12.46 12.28 12.36

 Electricity Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.36 10.46 10.43 10.44 10.89 10.82 10.81 11.87 11.73 11.69

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.76 22.18 22.05 21.88 22.67 22.48 22.67 24.33 24.01 24.05

 Commercial

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

 Motor Gasoline2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

 Kerosene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.34

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08

 Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Subtotal 0.63 0.63 0.62 0.58 0.58 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.58 0.59

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.10 3.27 3.27 3.14 3.33 3.32 3.34 3.59 3.53 3.54

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

 Renewable Energy3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.58 4.79 4.78 4.75 5.51 5.53 5.57 6.36 6.36 6.31

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.50 8.87 8.86 8.66 9.61 9.61 9.69 10.73 10.66 10.62

 Electricity Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.99 10.41 10.43 10.35 11.76 11.87 11.77 13.07 13.16 12.96

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.49 19.29 19.29 19.01 21.37 21.49 21.46 23.80 23.82 23.59

 Industrial4

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.35 1.79 1.86 2.02 1.69 1.72 1.79 1.41 1.44 1.66

 Motor Gasoline2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.36 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.35 0.36

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.28 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.20 1.18 1.24 1.23 1.23

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.25 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.16

 Petrochemical Feedstocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.30 1.01 1.05 1.01 1.04 1.05 1.13 0.85 0.88 1.05

 Other Petroleum5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.42 3.81 3.77 3.74 3.77 3.77 3.72 3.78 3.70 3.84

 Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Subtotal 9.96 8.25 8.34 8.42 8.20 8.24 8.32 7.79 7.76 8.30

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.82 5.99 6.16 6.77 6.48 6.54 6.84 6.54 6.52 7.04

 Natural-Gas-to-Liquids Heat and Power . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Lease and Plant Fuel6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.20 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.29 1.23 1.33 1.46 1.44 1.47

 Natural Gas Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.02 7.27 7.44 8.05 7.77 7.77 8.17 7.99 7.96 8.51

 Metallurgical Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.60 0.50 0.51 0.55 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.38 0.39 0.48

 Other Industrial Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.21 0.99 1.00 1.24 1.10 1.10 1.15 1.09 1.09 1.16

 Coal-to-Liquids Heat and Power . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.46 0.58

 Net Coal Coke Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 -0.00 -0.00 0.01

 Coal Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.83 1.50 1.52 1.80 1.70 1.85 1.89 1.73 1.93 2.23

 Biofuels Heat and Coproducts . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.40 0.76 0.76 0.75 1.02 1.23 1.23 1.69 1.94 1.66

 Renewable Energy7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.64 1.55 1.57 1.48 1.64 1.68 1.64 1.92 1.94 1.96

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.43 3.14 3.16 3.34 3.45 3.48 3.48 3.38 3.37 3.67

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.29 22.46 22.79 23.83 23.78 24.24 24.73 24.50 24.89 26.33

 Electricity Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.48 6.82 6.89 7.27 7.37 7.48 7.36 6.95 6.96 7.55

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.77 29.28 29.68 31.10 31.15 31.72 32.09 31.44 31.86 33.87
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 19

Table A2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Source 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

 Transportation

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02

 E858 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.75 0.85 1.62 1.75 2.18

 Motor Gasoline2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.29 17.05 17.11 16.93 15.86 15.68 15.56 15.09 14.87 14.49

 Jet Fuel9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.23 2.94 3.01 3.00 3.36 3.38 3.42 4.08 4.02 4.12

 Distillate Fuel Oil10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.48 6.01 6.11 6.13 7.21 7.24 7.36 8.56 8.52 9.09

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.95 0.89 0.89 0.86 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.00

 Liquid Hydrogen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Other Petroleum11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18

 Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Subtotal 28.14 27.07 27.30 27.11 28.10 28.20 28.36 30.54 30.34 31.09

 Pipeline Fuel Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.64 0.67 0.62 0.69 0.71 0.70 0.72

 Compressed Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.82 27.76 27.99 27.81 28.87 28.92 29.15 31.38 31.17 31.94

 Electricity Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.10

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.87 27.81 28.04 27.86 28.93 28.99 29.22 31.48 31.27 32.05

 Delivered Energy Consumption for All

 Sectors

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.95 2.40 2.47 2.61 2.29 2.31 2.39 2.05 2.07 2.29

 E858 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.75 0.85 1.62 1.75 2.18

 Motor Gasoline2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.70 17.43 17.49 17.33 16.25 16.07 15.95 15.50 15.27 14.90

 Jet Fuel9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.23 2.94 3.01 3.00 3.36 3.38 3.42 4.08 4.02 4.12

 Kerosene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.94 8.31 8.41 8.38 9.35 9.35 9.49 10.65 10.58 11.17

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.28 1.15 1.16 1.07 1.21 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.23 1.25

 Petrochemical Feedstocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.30 1.01 1.05 1.01 1.04 1.05 1.13 0.85 0.88 1.05

 Liquid Hydrogen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Other Petroleum12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.57 3.96 3.92 3.89 3.93 3.93 3.89 3.94 3.87 4.01

 Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Subtotal 40.08 37.31 37.61 37.40 38.04 38.15 38.42 40.02 39.77 41.07

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.80 14.40 14.52 14.86 14.91 14.92 15.34 15.27 15.13 15.73

 Natural-Gas-to-Liquids Heat and Power . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Lease and Plant Fuel6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.20 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.29 1.23 1.33 1.46 1.44 1.47

 Pipeline Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.64 0.67 0.62 0.69 0.71 0.70 0.72

 Natural Gas Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.64 16.32 16.43 16.78 16.87 16.77 17.36 17.44 17.27 17.92

 Metallurgical Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.60 0.50 0.51 0.55 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.38 0.39 0.48

 Other Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.28 1.06 1.07 1.31 1.17 1.18 1.22 1.16 1.16 1.23

 Coal-to-Liquids Heat and Power . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.46 0.58

 Net Coal Coke Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 -0.00 -0.00 0.01

 Coal Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.91 1.57 1.60 1.87 1.78 1.93 1.97 1.80 2.01 2.30

 Biofuels Heat and Coproducts . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.40 0.76 0.76 0.75 1.02 1.23 1.23 1.69 1.94 1.66

 Renewable Energy13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.19 2.09 2.11 2.03 2.24 2.28 2.24 2.54 2.57 2.58

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.79 12.75 12.75 12.91 14.09 14.08 14.20 15.57 15.45 15.73

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74.01 70.81 71.26 71.74 74.04 74.43 75.42 79.06 79.00 81.26

 Electricity Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.88 27.75 27.80 28.11 30.09 30.24 30.02 31.99 31.96 32.30

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101.90 98.56 99.06 99.85 104.13 104.67 105.44 111.05 110.95 113.56

 Electric Power14

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.56 0.49 0.49 0.38 0.40 0.39 0.39 0.41 0.40 0.40

 Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Subtotal 0.67 0.60 0.60 0.49 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.54 0.53 0.53

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.06 6.30 6.07 6.42 6.21 5.36 6.73 7.60 6.88 7.12

 Steam Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.84 20.70 20.67 21.03 22.26 22.43 22.01 23.22 23.42 24.25

 Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.41 8.45 8.45 8.45 9.34 9.14 8.99 9.69 9.29 9.47

 Renewable Energy15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.45 4.24 4.56 4.42 5.65 6.69 5.79 6.28 7.13 6.43

 Electricity Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.11 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.03 0.10

 Total16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.67 40.50 40.55 41.02 44.17 44.32 44.22 47.56 47.40 48.03
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 20

Table A2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Source 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

 Total Energy Consumption

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.95 2.40 2.47 2.61 2.29 2.31 2.39 2.05 2.07 2.29

 E858 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.75 0.85 1.62 1.75 2.18

 Motor Gasoline2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.70 17.43 17.49 17.33 16.25 16.07 15.95 15.50 15.27 14.90

 Jet Fuel9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.23 2.94 3.01 3.00 3.36 3.38 3.42 4.08 4.02 4.12

 Kerosene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.05 8.42 8.52 8.49 9.47 9.48 9.61 10.78 10.71 11.31

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.84 1.64 1.65 1.45 1.61 1.60 1.60 1.64 1.63 1.64

 Petrochemical Feedstocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.30 1.01 1.05 1.01 1.04 1.05 1.13 0.85 0.88 1.05

 Liquid Hydrogen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Other Petroleum12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.57 3.96 3.92 3.89 3.93 3.93 3.89 3.94 3.87 4.01

 Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Subtotal 40.75 37.91 38.21 37.89 38.57 38.67 38.93 40.57 40.30 41.60

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.86 20.71 20.59 21.29 21.12 20.28 22.07 22.87 22.02 22.86

 Natural-Gas-to-Liquids Heat and Power . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Lease and Plant Fuel6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.20 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.29 1.23 1.33 1.46 1.44 1.47

 Pipeline Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.64 0.67 0.62 0.69 0.71 0.70 0.72

 Natural Gas Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.70 22.63 22.50 23.20 23.09 22.13 24.09 25.04 24.15 25.04

 Metallurgical Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.60 0.50 0.51 0.55 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.38 0.39 0.48

 Other Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.12 21.76 21.75 22.34 23.43 23.61 23.24 24.38 24.58 25.49

 Coal-to-Liquids Heat and Power . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.46 0.58

 Net Coal Coke Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 -0.00 -0.00 0.01

 Coal Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.74 22.27 22.27 22.91 24.04 24.36 23.98 25.02 25.42 26.56

 Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.41 8.45 8.45 8.45 9.34 9.14 8.99 9.69 9.29 9.47

 Biofuels Heat and Coproducts . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.40 0.76 0.76 0.75 1.02 1.23 1.23 1.69 1.94 1.66

 Renewable Energy17 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.65 6.34 6.66 6.45 7.89 8.97 8.03 8.83 9.70 9.01

 Electricity Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.11 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.03 0.10

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101.90 98.56 99.06 99.85 104.13 104.67 105.44 111.05 110.95 113.56

Energy Use and Related Statistics

 Delivered Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74.01 70.81 71.26 71.74 74.04 74.43 75.42 79.06 79.00 81.26

 Total Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101.90 98.56 99.06 99.85 104.13 104.67 105.44 111.05 110.95 113.56

 Ethanol Consumed in Motor Gasoline and E85 0.56 1.09 1.09 1.08 1.45 1.59 1.66 2.15 2.22 2.47

 Population (millions) ..................... 302.41 311.37 311.37 311.37 342.55 342.55 342.61 374.67 374.67 375.12

 Gross Domestic Product (billion 2000 dollars) 11524 11373 11599 11779 15315 15398 15524 20193 19875 20114

 Carbon Dioxide Emissions (million metric tons) 5990.8 5736.7 5745.9 5801.4 5931.2 5904.6 5982.3 6243.6 6207.1 6414.4

1

Includes wood used for residential heating. See Table A4 and/or Table A17 for estimates of nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for geothermal heat pumps, solar

thermal hot water heating, and solar photovoltaic electricity generation. 2

Includes ethanol (blends of 10 percent or less) and ethers blended into gasoline.

3

Excludes ethanol. Includes commercial sector consumption of wood and wood waste, landfill gas, municipal waste, and other biomass for combined heat and power. See

Table A5 and/or Table A17 for estimates of nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for solar thermal hot water heating and solar photovoltaic electricity generation. 4

Includes energy for combined heat and power plants, except those whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 5

Includes petroleum coke, asphalt, road oil, lubricants, still gas, and miscellaneous petroleum products.

6

Represents natural gas used in well, field, and lease operations, and in natural gas processing plant machinery.

7

Includes consumption of energy produced from hydroelectric, wood and wood waste, municipal waste, and other biomass sources. Excludes ethanol blends (10 percent or

less) in motor gasoline. 8

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues, the percentage of ethanol varies

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 9

Includes only kerosene type.

10Diesel fuel for on- and off- road use.

11Includes aviation gasoline and lubricants.

12Includes unfinished oils, natural gasoline, motor gasoline blending components, aviation gasoline, lubricants, still gas, asphalt, road oil, petroleum coke, and miscellaneous

petroleum products. 13Includes electricity generated for sale to the grid and for own use from renewable sources, and non-electric energy from renewable sources. Excludes ethanol and

nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for geothermal heat pumps, buildings photovoltaic systems, and solar thermal hot water heaters. 14Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 

Includes small power producers and exempt wholesale generators. 15Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood and wood waste, biogenic municipal waste, other biomass, wind, photovoltaic, and solar thermal sources. Excludes

net electricity imports. 16Includes non-biogenic municipal waste not included above.

17Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood and wood waste, biogenic municipal waste, other biomass, wind, photovoltaic, and solar thermal sources. Excludes

ethanol, net electricity imports, and nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for geothermal heat pumps, buildings photovoltaic systems, and solar thermal hot water

heaters.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 consumption based on: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 2007

population and gross domestic product: IHS Global Insight Industry and Employment models, November 2008. 2007 carbon dioxide emissions: EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse

Gases in the United States 2007, DOE/EIA-0573(2007) (Washington, DC, December 2008). Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System runs

NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 21

Table A3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source

(2007 Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Source 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Residential

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.97 20.71 20.70 25.86 33.29 33.34 32.88 35.15 35.16 35.11

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.66 13.34 13.35 18.69 24.41 24.64 24.10 26.81 26.77 26.67

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.69 11.20 11.19 12.09 12.62 12.56 12.50 14.05 13.96 14.31

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.18 28.61 28.62 30.89 33.24 32.43 32.72 35.71 34.49 35.84

Commercial

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.04 17.56 17.54 22.69 30.02 30.07 29.60 31.82 31.84 31.77

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.05 10.73 10.76 16.15 22.29 22.61 22.11 24.68 24.65 24.69

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.31 5.79 5.80 10.97 16.85 16.86 16.68 17.89 17.87 17.98

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.99 9.51 9.47 10.55 11.16 11.08 11.13 12.64 12.52 12.96

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.03 24.82 24.84 27.29 28.60 27.62 28.15 30.80 29.65 31.01

Industrial1

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.38 16.55 16.64 21.84 29.12 29.17 28.78 30.83 30.85 30.99

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.82 10.58 10.62 16.01 22.68 23.06 22.56 25.08 25.07 25.19

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.60 9.82 9.84 15.38 20.71 20.73 20.94 22.16 22.08 22.73

 Natural Gas2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.52 5.56 5.50 6.91 7.56 7.47 7.48 8.80 8.69 9.07

 Metallurgical Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.61 3.98 4.00 4.37 4.39 4.39 4.40 4.46 4.43 4.41

 Other Industrial Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.43 2.39 2.39 2.54 2.57 2.57 2.53 2.67 2.66 2.67

 Coal to Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - - - - - - - - 1.15 1.35 1.23 1.24 1.38 1.36

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.62 16.82 16.83 18.72 19.54 18.80 19.06 21.46 20.56 21.59

Transportation

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.01 20.55 20.53 25.67 33.05 33.10 32.62 34.80 34.82 34.77

 E854 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.82 18.83 18.87 25.47 29.04 29.59 29.30 31.24 30.94 30.10

 Motor Gasoline5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.98 17.67 17.71 23.47 29.60 29.94 29.75 31.82 31.58 32.10

 Jet Fuel6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.10 10.37 10.41 16.03 22.23 22.36 22.15 24.69 24.67 24.63

 Diesel Fuel (distillate fuel oil)7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.91 14.56 14.63 20.05 26.19 26.59 26.04 28.36 28.34 28.59

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.44 6.62 6.59 12.10 17.13 17.16 17.46 18.84 18.84 19.65

 Natural Gas8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.50 13.56 13.50 14.90 15.05 14.95 14.90 15.85 15.70 16.24

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.78 27.29 27.33 30.34 30.26 29.14 29.48 33.63 32.48 34.15

Electric Power9

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.77 9.78 9.79 15.09 20.77 20.98 20.45 23.23 23.21 23.11

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.57 6.67 6.68 13.21 17.51 17.54 18.55 19.12 19.25 20.67

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.02 5.21 5.13 6.59 7.17 7.03 7.15 8.45 8.34 8.70

 Steam Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.78 1.86 1.86 1.89 1.95 1.96 1.92 2.04 2.04 2.04

Average Price to All Users10

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.53 16.34 16.30 20.96 28.10 28.11 27.56 30.09 30.05 29.77

 E854 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.82 18.83 18.87 25.47 29.04 29.59 29.30 31.24 30.94 30.10

 Motor Gasoline5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.82 17.67 17.71 23.47 29.60 29.94 29.75 31.81 31.58 32.10

 Jet Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.10 10.37 10.41 16.03 22.23 22.36 22.15 24.69 24.67 24.63

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.93 13.54 13.60 18.98 25.41 25.80 25.28 27.74 27.71 27.94

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.37 6.92 6.91 12.66 17.56 17.59 18.03 19.16 19.19 20.12

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.01 7.48 7.43 8.56 9.24 9.22 9.11 10.47 10.42 10.75

 Metallurgical Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.61 3.98 4.00 4.37 4.39 4.39 4.40 4.46 4.43 4.41

 Other Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.82 1.89 1.89 1.93 1.98 1.99 1.95 2.07 2.08 2.07

 Coal to Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - - - - - - - - 1.15 1.35 1.23 1.24 1.38 1.36

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.68 24.29 24.28 26.42 28.07 27.16 27.57 30.60 29.46 30.56

Non-Renewable Energy Expenditures by

 Sector (billion 2007 dollars)

 Residential ............................ 238.40 216.77 215.29 235.27 265.77 258.45 263.30 311.47 298.90 310.03

 Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172.89 157.29 157.14 172.88 208.45 203.26 207.76 256.52 247.76 256.75

 Industrial ............................. 226.89 149.11 151.70 204.25 239.19 239.07 242.68 249.46 245.87 276.26

 Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 596.77 426.50 430.91 580.97 755.06 759.33 752.82 849.01 835.36 853.25

 Total Non-Renewable Expenditures .......1234.95 949.68 955.05 1193.36 1468.47 1460.11 1466.55 1666.46 1627.90 1696.29

 Transportation Renewable Expenditures . . . . 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.07 14.68 22.10 24.83 50.60 54.18 65.71

 Total Expenditures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1234.99 949.73 955.10 1193.43 1483.15 1482.21 1491.38 1717.06 1682.08 1762.00
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 22

Table A3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source (Continued)

(Nominal Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Source 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Residential

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.97 21.45 21.48 27.24 41.76 42.33 42.47 54.41 55.65 50.90

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.66 13.81 13.85 19.68 30.61 31.29 31.14 41.50 42.37 38.67

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.69 11.60 11.61 12.74 15.83 15.95 16.14 21.75 22.10 20.75

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.18 29.64 29.70 32.53 41.70 41.18 42.26 55.28 54.58 51.96

Commercial

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.04 18.18 18.20 23.89 37.66 38.19 38.24 49.25 50.38 46.06

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.05 11.11 11.17 17.01 27.96 28.71 28.56 38.20 39.01 35.80

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.31 6.00 6.02 11.55 21.14 21.40 21.55 27.69 28.29 26.07

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.99 9.85 9.82 11.11 14.00 14.07 14.37 19.56 19.81 18.78

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.03 25.71 25.77 28.74 35.87 35.07 36.37 47.67 46.93 44.96

Industrial1

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.38 17.14 17.27 23.00 36.53 37.04 37.17 47.72 48.82 44.93

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.82 10.96 11.03 16.86 28.44 29.28 29.14 38.83 39.68 36.52

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.60 10.17 10.22 16.20 25.98 26.32 27.05 34.29 34.94 32.95

 Natural Gas2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.52 5.76 5.71 7.27 9.49 9.48 9.66 13.62 13.76 13.16

 Metallurgical Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.61 4.12 4.15 4.60 5.51 5.57 5.69 6.91 7.01 6.40

 Other Industrial Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.43 2.47 2.48 2.67 3.23 3.26 3.27 4.14 4.22 3.88

 Coal to Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - - - - - - - - 1.44 1.71 1.59 1.91 2.18 1.98

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.62 17.43 17.46 19.72 24.51 23.88 24.63 33.22 32.54 31.30

Transportation

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.01 21.28 21.31 27.04 41.46 42.02 42.13 53.87 55.10 50.41

 E854 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.82 19.50 19.58 26.83 36.43 37.58 37.85 48.36 48.96 43.63

 Motor Gasoline5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.98 18.30 18.38 24.72 37.13 38.02 38.43 49.25 49.98 46.54

 Jet Fuel6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.10 10.74 10.81 16.89 27.88 28.39 28.62 38.22 39.04 35.70

 Diesel Fuel (distillate fuel oil)7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.91 15.09 15.18 21.12 32.86 33.76 33.63 43.90 44.85 41.44

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.44 6.85 6.83 12.74 21.48 21.79 22.56 29.16 29.81 28.49

 Natural Gas8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.50 14.04 14.01 15.69 18.87 18.98 19.24 24.53 24.84 23.55

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.78 28.27 28.36 31.95 37.95 37.01 38.09 52.05 51.41 49.51

Electric Power9

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.77 10.13 10.16 15.89 26.05 26.64 26.42 35.96 36.73 33.51

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.57 6.91 6.93 13.91 21.97 22.28 23.97 29.59 30.46 29.97

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.02 5.40 5.32 6.94 9.00 8.92 9.24 13.08 13.20 12.61

 Steam Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.78 1.93 1.93 1.99 2.44 2.48 2.48 3.16 3.24 2.95
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 23

Table A3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source (Continued)

(Nominal Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Source 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Average Price to All Users10

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.53 16.93 16.91 22.07 35.25 35.70 35.61 46.58 47.55 43.16

 E854 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.82 19.50 19.58 26.83 36.43 37.58 37.85 48.36 48.96 43.63

 Motor Gasoline5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.82 18.30 18.38 24.71 37.13 38.01 38.43 49.24 49.98 46.54

 Jet Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.10 10.74 10.81 16.89 27.88 28.39 28.62 38.22 39.04 35.70

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.93 14.03 14.11 19.99 31.87 32.76 32.65 42.93 43.86 40.51

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.37 7.17 7.18 13.34 22.02 22.34 23.29 29.66 30.37 29.16

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.01 7.75 7.71 9.01 11.59 11.71 11.77 16.21 16.49 15.58

 Metallurgical Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.61 4.12 4.15 4.60 5.51 5.57 5.69 6.91 7.01 6.40

 Other Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.82 1.95 1.96 2.04 2.48 2.52 2.52 3.21 3.28 3.00

 Coal to Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - - - - - - - - 1.44 1.71 1.59 1.91 2.18 1.98

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.68 25.16 25.19 27.82 35.20 34.49 35.62 47.37 46.62 44.31

Non-Renewable Energy Expenditures by

 Sector (billion nominal dollars)

 Residential ............................ 238.40 224.54 223.41 247.78 333.37 328.18 340.12 482.10 473.03 449.49

 Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172.89 162.93 163.07 182.07 261.47 258.11 268.38 397.05 392.10 372.25

 Industrial ............................. 226.89 154.46 157.43 215.12 300.03 303.57 313.49 386.11 389.11 400.54

 Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 596.77 441.79 447.16 611.87 947.12 964.21 972.48 1314.12 1322.01 1237.08

 Total Non-Renewable Expenditures .......1234.95 983.72 991.08 1256.84 1841.99 1854.06 1894.47 2579.39 2576.26 2459.36

 Transportation Renewable Expenditures . . . . 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.07 18.42 28.06 32.08 78.32 85.74 95.27

 Total Expenditures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1234.99 983.78 991.13 1256.91 1860.40 1882.13 1926.55 2657.71 2662.00 2554.63

1

Includes energy for combined heat and power plants, except those whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 2

Excludes use for lease and plant fuel.

3

Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.

4

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues, the percentage of ethanol varies

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 5

Sales weighted-average price for all grades. Includes Federal, State and local taxes.

6

Kerosene-type jet fuel. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.

7

Diesel fuel for on-road use. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.

8

Compressed natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. Includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes and estimated dispensing costs or charges. 9

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 10Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices shown in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption.

Btu = British thermal unit.

- - = Not applicable.

Note: Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 prices for motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel are based on prices in the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Marketing Annual

2007, DOE/EIA-0487(2007) (Washington, DC, August 2008). 2007 residential and commercial natural gas delivered prices: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA0130(2008/08) (Washington, DC, August 2008). 2007 industrial natural gas delivered prices are estimated based on: EIA, Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey 1994

and industrial and wellhead prices from the Natural Gas Annual 2006, DOE/EIA-0131(2006) (Washington, DC, October 2007) and the Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA0130(2008/08) (Washington, DC, August 2008). 2007 transportation sector natural gas delivered prices are model results. 2007 electric power sector natural gas prices: EIA,

Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226, April 2007 and April 2008, Table 4.13.B. 2007 coal prices based on: EIA, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2007, DOE/EIA0121(2007/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2008) and EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System run NOSTIMLS.D041409A. 2007 electricity prices: EIA, Annual Energy

Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 2007 E85 prices derived from monthly prices in the Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report. 

Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 24

Table A4. Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Key Indicators and Consumption 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Key Indicators

 Households (millions)

 Single-Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.73 83.38 83.37 83.61 93.49 93.45 93.63 101.98 101.85 101.57

 Multifamily . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.17 25.92 25.96 25.97 29.06 29.06 29.17 32.94 32.85 32.47

 Mobile Homes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.85 6.70 6.71 6.73 7.02 7.02 6.96 7.40 7.38 7.09

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113.74 116.01 116.05 116.30 129.57 129.53 129.76 142.32 142.08 141.14

 Average House Square Footage .......... 1663 1699 1699 1701 1834 1834 1834 1934 1934 1934

Energy Intensity

 (million Btu per household)

 Delivered Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . 100.2 101.0 100.1 98.4 90.9 90.0 91.4 87.5 86.4 87.6

 Total Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191.3 191.2 190.0 188.2 175.0 173.5 174.7 171.0 169.0 170.4

 (thousand Btu per square foot)

 Delivered Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . 60.3 59.4 58.9 57.8 49.6 49.1 49.8 45.3 44.7 45.3

 Total Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115.1 112.5 111.8 110.6 95.4 94.6 95.2 88.4 87.4 88.1

Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel

 Electricity

 Space Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31

 Space Cooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.88 0.83 0.82 0.86 0.95 0.93 0.97 1.10 1.06 1.10

 Water Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.42 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.50 0.50 0.50

 Refrigeration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.39 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.43 0.43 0.42

 Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14

 Clothes Dryers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.31 0.31 0.32

 Freezers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09

 Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.73 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.53 0.53 0.52

 Clothes Washers1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

 Dishwashers1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.12

 Color Televisions and Set-Top Boxes . . . . . . 0.36 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.44 0.43 0.44 0.56 0.56 0.56

 Personal Computers and Related 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.23 0.23 0.23

 Furnace Fans and Boiler Circulation 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.16

 Other Uses2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.99 0.98 1.01 1.26 1.21 1.19

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.75 4.81 4.79 4.80 5.10 5.04 5.12 5.78 5.67 5.69

 Natural Gas

 Space Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.22 3.47 3.42 3.27 3.39 3.34 3.39 3.44 3.38 3.40

 Space Cooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Water Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.40 1.31 1.31 1.35

 Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.26

 Clothes Dryers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.06

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.86 5.11 5.06 4.92 5.03 4.99 5.10 5.06 5.01 5.07

 Distillate Fuel Oil

 Space Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.66 0.67 0.66 0.62 0.53 0.52 0.53 0.46 0.46 0.46

 Water Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.78 0.77 0.77 0.72 0.60 0.59 0.60 0.51 0.50 0.51

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases

 Space Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.19

 Water Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05

 Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04

 Other Uses3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.24 0.24 0.24

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.50 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.49 0.52 0.51 0.52

 Marketed Renewables (wood)4 . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.50 0.50

 Other Fuels5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 25

Table A4. Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Key Indicators and Consumption 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Delivered Energy Consumption by End Use

 Space Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.90 5.19 5.11 4.91 4.99 4.92 4.99 5.00 4.91 4.95

 Space Cooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.88 0.83 0.82 0.86 0.95 0.93 0.97 1.10 1.06 1.10

 Water Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.98 1.97 1.95 1.95 1.97 1.97 2.00 1.91 1.92 1.95

 Refrigeration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.39 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.43 0.43 0.42

 Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.43

 Clothes Dryers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.40 0.39 0.38

 Freezers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09

 Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.73 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.53 0.53 0.52

 Clothes Washers1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

 Dishwashers1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.12

 Color Televisions and Set-Top Boxes . . . . . . 0.36 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.44 0.43 0.44 0.56 0.56 0.56

 Personal Computers and Related 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.23 0.23 0.23

 Furnace Fans and Boiler Circulation 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.16

 Other Uses6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.97 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.19 1.18 1.21 1.50 1.45 1.43

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.40 11.72 11.62 11.44 11.78 11.66 11.86 12.46 12.28 12.36

Electricity Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.36 10.46 10.43 10.44 10.89 10.82 10.81 11.87 11.73 11.69

Total Energy Consumption by End Use

 Space Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.51 5.84 5.76 5.53 5.64 5.56 5.64 5.64 5.55 5.59

 Space Cooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.81 2.64 2.60 2.73 2.98 2.91 3.01 3.35 3.25 3.34

 Water Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.90 2.90 2.86 2.87 3.05 3.02 3.01 2.95 2.96 2.98

 Refrigeration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.23 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.30 1.31 1.29

 Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.67 0.70 0.70 0.72

 Clothes Dryers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.97 0.96 0.96 1.04 1.02 1.03

 Freezers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.28

 Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.33 2.29 2.29 2.27 1.74 1.73 1.73 1.63 1.61 1.59

 Clothes Washers1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09

 Dishwashers1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.36 0.36 0.35

 Color Televisions and Set-Top Boxes . . . . . . 1.15 1.29 1.29 1.28 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.72 1.71 1.71

 Personal Computers and Related 0.49 0.57 0.57 0.58 0.62 0.62 0.61 0.70 0.70 0.69

 Furnace Fans and Boiler Circulation 0.41 0.45 0.45 0.42 0.49 0.49 0.47 0.51 0.51 0.50

 Other Uses6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.76 2.84 2.88 2.85 3.31 3.28 3.34 4.08 3.96 3.88

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.76 22.18 22.05 21.88 22.67 22.48 22.67 24.33 24.01 24.05

Nonmarketed Renewables7

 Geothermal Heat Pumps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02

 Solar Hot Water Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Solar Photovoltaic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.05

 Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.08

1

Does not include water heating portion of load.

2

Includes small electric devices, heating elements, and motors not listed above.

3

Includes such appliances as outdoor grills and mosquito traps.

4

Includes wood used for primary and secondary heating in wood stoves or fireplaces as reported in the Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2005. 5

Includes kerosene and coal.

6

Includes all other uses listed above.

7

Represents delivered energy displaced.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data

reports.

Sources: 2007 based on: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 

Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 26

Table A5. Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Key Indicators and Consumption 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Key Indicators

 Total Floorspace (billion square feet)

 Surviving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 79.4 79.4 79.5 89.6 89.6 90.3 102.1 101.7 101.2

 New Additions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.1

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77.3 81.0 81.1 81.2 91.6 91.5 92.3 104.4 103.9 103.3

 Energy Consumption Intensity

 (thousand Btu per square foot)

 Delivered Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . 110.0 109.5 109.3 106.7 104.9 105.0 105.0 102.8 102.5 102.9

 Electricity Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129.3 128.6 128.7 127.5 128.4 129.8 127.6 125.3 126.6 125.5

 Total Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239.3 238.1 238.0 234.2 233.4 234.8 232.6 228.0 229.2 228.4

Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel

 Purchased Electricity

 Space Heating1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18

 Space Cooling1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.55 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.58 0.58 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.65

 Water Heating1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.10

 Ventilation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.49 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.71 0.71 0.71

 Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

 Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.21 1.21 1.22

 Refrigeration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.40 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.40 0.40 0.40

 Office Equipment (PC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.34 0.34 0.34

 Office Equipment (non-PC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.21 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.44 0.44 0.43

 Other Uses2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.34 1.46 1.46 1.43 1.85 1.84 1.83 2.32 2.31 2.27

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.58 4.79 4.78 4.75 5.51 5.53 5.57 6.36 6.36 6.31

 Natural Gas

 Space Heating1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.45 1.59 1.58 1.50 1.55 1.54 1.56 1.56 1.52 1.53

 Space Cooling1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04

 Water Heating1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.44 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.56 0.56 0.56

 Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.22 0.22

 Other Uses3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.99 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.20 1.18 1.19

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.10 3.27 3.27 3.14 3.33 3.32 3.34 3.59 3.53 3.54

 Distillate Fuel Oil

 Space Heating1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.15

 Water Heating1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03

 Other Uses4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.34

 Marketed Renewables (biomass) . . . . . . . . . . 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12

 Other Fuels5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31

Delivered Energy Consumption by End Use

 Space Heating1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.79 1.94 1.93 1.83 1.87 1.86 1.89 1.88 1.84 1.86

 Space Cooling1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.59 0.57 0.57 0.58 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.69 0.68 0.69

 Water Heating1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.55 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.69 0.68 0.68

 Ventilation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.49 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.71 0.71 0.71

 Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.25 0.25 0.24

 Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.21 1.21 1.22

 Refrigeration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.40 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.40 0.40 0.40

 Office Equipment (PC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.34 0.34 0.34

 Office Equipment (non-PC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.21 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.44 0.44 0.43

 Other Uses6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.98 3.09 3.09 3.00 3.48 3.48 3.47 4.13 4.09 4.06

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.50 8.87 8.86 8.66 9.61 9.61 9.69 10.73 10.66 10.62
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 27

Table A5. Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Key Indicators and Consumption 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Electricity Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.99 10.41 10.43 10.35 11.76 11.87 11.77 13.07 13.16 12.96

Total Energy Consumption by End Use

 Space Heating1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.15 2.32 2.31 2.20 2.24 2.23 2.27 2.25 2.21 2.23

 Space Cooling1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.78 1.73 1.73 1.77 1.86 1.88 1.89 2.02 2.02 2.03

 Water Heating1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.88 0.88 0.87

 Ventilation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.56 1.70 1.70 1.68 1.97 2.01 2.01 2.15 2.19 2.17

 Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.29

 Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.37 3.37 3.37 3.36 3.50 3.54 3.58 3.69 3.73 3.71

 Refrigeration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.28 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.23 1.24 1.22

 Office Equipment (PC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.77 0.80 0.81 0.80 0.91 0.91 0.91 1.04 1.05 1.03

 Office Equipment (non-PC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.67 0.82 0.82 0.82 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.33 1.34 1.32

 Other Uses6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.91 6.26 6.27 6.11 7.43 7.44 7.33 8.90 8.87 8.71

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.49 19.29 19.29 19.01 21.37 21.49 21.46 23.80 23.82 23.59

Nonmarketed Renewable Fuels7

 Solar Thermal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

 Solar Photovoltaic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04

1

Includes fuel consumption for district services.

2

Includes miscellaneous uses, such as service station equipment, automated teller machines, telecommunications equipment, and medical equipment. 3

Includes miscellaneous uses, such as pumps, emergency generators, combined heat and power in commercial buildings, and manufacturing performed in commercial

buildings. 4

Includes miscellaneous uses, such as cooking, emergency generators, and combined heat and power in commercial buildings.

5

Includes residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gases, coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene.

6

Includes miscellaneous uses, such as service station equipment, automated teller machines, telecommunications equipment, medical equipment, pumps, emergency

generators, combined heat and power in commercial buildings, manufacturing performed in commercial buildings, and cooking (distillate), plus residual fuel oil, liquefied

petroleum gases, coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene. 7

Represents delivered energy displaced by solar thermal space heating and water heating, and electricity generation by solar photovoltaic systems.

Btu = British thermal unit.

PC = Personal computer.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 based on: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). Projections: EIA,

AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 28

Table A6. Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption

Key Indicators and Consumption 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Key Indicators

 Value of Shipments (billion 2000 dollars)

 Manufacturing ........................ 4261 3683 3757 3963 4946 5019 5150 5735 5631 6671

 Nonmanufacturing ..................... 1490 1179 1197 1277 1635 1633 1603 1784 1760 1780

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5750 4862 4954 5240 6581 6652 6753 7519 7391 8451

 Energy Prices

 (2007 dollars per million Btu)

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.38 16.55 16.64 21.84 29.12 29.17 28.78 30.83 30.85 30.99

 Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.93 17.59 17.63 23.41 29.48 29.82 29.64 31.70 31.49 32.04

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.82 10.58 10.62 16.01 22.68 23.06 22.56 25.08 25.07 25.19

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.60 9.82 9.84 15.38 20.71 20.73 20.94 22.16 22.08 22.73

 Petrochemical Feedstocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.60 7.82 7.80 12.09 17.75 17.86 17.63 18.36 18.24 18.95

 Asphalt and Road Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.40 3.81 3.78 6.49 9.68 9.65 9.52 10.51 10.52 10.70

 Natural Gas Heat and Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.60 4.61 4.56 6.03 6.71 6.61 6.65 8.06 7.94 8.31

 Natural Gas Feedstocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.24 6.34 6.29 7.70 8.35 8.26 8.25 9.57 9.47 9.83

 Metallurgical Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.61 3.98 4.00 4.37 4.39 4.39 4.40 4.46 4.43 4.41

 Other Industrial Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.43 2.39 2.39 2.54 2.57 2.57 2.53 2.67 2.66 2.67

 Coal for Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - - - - - - - - 1.15 1.35 1.23 1.24 1.38 1.36

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.62 16.82 16.83 18.72 19.54 18.80 19.06 21.46 20.56 21.59

 (nominal dollars per million Btu)

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.38 17.14 17.27 23.00 36.53 37.04 37.17 47.72 48.82 44.93

 Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.93 18.22 18.29 24.66 36.98 37.86 38.29 49.07 49.83 46.45

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.82 10.96 11.03 16.86 28.44 29.28 29.14 38.83 39.68 36.52

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.60 10.17 10.22 16.20 25.98 26.32 27.05 34.29 34.94 32.95

 Petrochemical Feedstocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.60 8.10 8.09 12.74 22.26 22.68 22.77 28.42 28.86 27.48

 Asphalt and Road Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.40 3.94 3.92 6.83 12.15 12.26 12.30 16.26 16.64 15.51

 Natural Gas Heat and Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.60 4.78 4.74 6.35 8.41 8.39 8.59 12.48 12.56 12.05

 Natural Gas Feedstocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.24 6.56 6.53 8.11 10.48 10.49 10.66 14.81 14.98 14.26

 Metallurgical Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.61 4.12 4.15 4.60 5.51 5.57 5.69 6.91 7.01 6.40

 Other Industrial Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.43 2.47 2.48 2.67 3.23 3.26 3.27 4.14 4.22 3.88

 Coal for Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 1.44 1.71 1.59 1.91 2.18 1.98

 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.62 17.43 17.46 19.72 24.51 23.88 24.63 33.22 32.54 31.30

Energy Consumption (quadrillion Btu)1

 Industrial Consumption Excluding Refining

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases Heat and 0.18 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.16

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases Feedstocks . . . . 2.16 1.59 1.65 1.83 1.48 1.51 1.61 1.23 1.26 1.50

 Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.36 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.35 0.36

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.27 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.20 1.18 1.24 1.23 1.23

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.24 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.16

 Petrochemical Feedstocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.30 1.01 1.05 1.01 1.04 1.05 1.13 0.85 0.88 1.05

 Petroleum Coke . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.36 0.20 0.20 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.31

 Asphalt and Road Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.19 0.86 0.87 0.96 1.14 1.14 1.08 1.13 1.12 1.12

 Miscellaneous Petroleum2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.62 0.30 0.32 0.30 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.21

 Petroleum Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.68 5.73 5.90 6.18 6.00 6.05 6.15 5.57 5.60 6.10

 Natural Gas Heat and Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.14 4.62 4.72 5.02 4.75 4.79 4.86 4.73 4.71 5.11

 Natural Gas Feedstocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.55 0.47 0.47 0.51 0.45 0.46 0.50 0.39 0.40 0.44

 Lease and Plant Fuel3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.20 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.29 1.23 1.33 1.46 1.44 1.47

 Natural Gas Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.89 6.37 6.47 6.80 6.50 6.48 6.69 6.57 6.54 7.02

 Metallurgical Coal and Coke4 . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.62 0.51 0.52 0.56 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.38 0.39 0.49

 Other Industrial Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.15 0.93 0.94 1.18 1.04 1.04 1.09 1.03 1.03 1.10

 Coal Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.77 1.44 1.46 1.74 1.53 1.55 1.60 1.41 1.42 1.59

 Renewables5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.64 1.55 1.57 1.48 1.64 1.68 1.64 1.92 1.94 1.96

 Purchased Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.27 2.95 2.98 3.15 3.24 3.28 3.27 3.15 3.14 3.45

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.26 18.04 18.38 19.36 18.91 19.04 19.35 18.63 18.64 20.11

 Electricity Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.13 6.43 6.49 6.86 6.93 7.04 6.91 6.47 6.50 7.09

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.39 24.47 24.87 26.22 25.84 26.08 26.25 25.10 25.14 27.20
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 29

Table A6. Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Continued)

Key Indicators and Consumption 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

 Refining Consumption

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases Heat and 0.01 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.00

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Petroleum Coke . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.55 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.49 0.49 0.53 0.43 0.44 0.53

 Still Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.68 1.89 1.81 1.65 1.62 1.61 1.62 1.71 1.66 1.67

 Miscellaneous Petroleum2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01

 Petroleum Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.27 2.52 2.44 2.24 2.20 2.18 2.17 2.22 2.16 2.20

 Natural Gas Heat and Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.13 0.90 0.97 1.25 1.28 1.28 1.47 1.42 1.41 1.49

 Natural-Gas-to-Liquids Heat and Power . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Natural Gas Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.13 0.90 0.97 1.25 1.28 1.28 1.47 1.42 1.41 1.49

 Other Industrial Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

 Coal-to-Liquids Heat and Power . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.46 0.58

 Coal Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.17 0.31 0.30 0.31 0.52 0.64

 Biofuels Heat and Coproducts . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.40 0.76 0.76 0.75 1.02 1.23 1.23 1.69 1.94 1.66

 Purchased Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.22

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.03 4.42 4.41 4.48 4.88 5.20 5.38 5.87 6.25 6.22

 Electricity Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.35 0.39 0.39 0.41 0.44 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.46 0.46

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.38 4.81 4.81 4.88 5.32 5.64 5.84 6.35 6.72 6.67

 Total Industrial Sector Consumption

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases Heat and 0.19 0.19 0.21 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.16

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases Feedstocks . . . . 2.16 1.59 1.65 1.83 1.48 1.51 1.61 1.23 1.26 1.50

 Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.36 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.35 0.36

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.28 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.20 1.18 1.24 1.23 1.23

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.25 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.16

 Petrochemical Feedstocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.30 1.01 1.05 1.01 1.04 1.05 1.13 0.85 0.88 1.05

 Petroleum Coke . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.91 0.74 0.75 0.81 0.78 0.78 0.82 0.72 0.72 0.83

 Asphalt and Road Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.19 0.86 0.87 0.96 1.14 1.14 1.08 1.13 1.12 1.12

 Still Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.68 1.89 1.81 1.65 1.62 1.61 1.62 1.71 1.66 1.67

 Miscellaneous Petroleum2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.65 0.33 0.34 0.31 0.23 0.24 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.22

 Petroleum Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.96 8.25 8.34 8.42 8.20 8.24 8.32 7.79 7.76 8.30

 Natural Gas Heat and Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.27 5.52 5.69 6.27 6.03 6.07 6.34 6.15 6.12 6.60

 Natural-Gas-to-Liquids Heat and Power . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Natural Gas Feedstocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.55 0.47 0.47 0.51 0.45 0.46 0.50 0.39 0.40 0.44

 Lease and Plant Fuel3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.20 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.29 1.23 1.33 1.46 1.44 1.47

 Natural Gas Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.02 7.27 7.44 8.05 7.77 7.77 8.17 7.99 7.96 8.51

 Metallurgical Coal and Coke4 . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.62 0.51 0.52 0.56 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.38 0.39 0.49

 Other Industrial Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.21 0.99 1.00 1.24 1.10 1.10 1.15 1.09 1.09 1.16

 Coal-to-Liquids Heat and Power . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.46 0.58

 Coal Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.83 1.50 1.52 1.80 1.70 1.85 1.89 1.73 1.93 2.23

 Biofuels Heat and Coproducts . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.40 0.76 0.76 0.75 1.02 1.23 1.23 1.69 1.94 1.66

 Renewables5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.64 1.55 1.57 1.48 1.64 1.68 1.64 1.92 1.94 1.96

 Purchased Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.43 3.14 3.16 3.34 3.45 3.48 3.48 3.38 3.37 3.67

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.29 22.46 22.79 23.83 23.78 24.24 24.73 24.50 24.89 26.33

 Electricity Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.48 6.82 6.89 7.27 7.37 7.48 7.36 6.95 6.96 7.55

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.77 29.28 29.68 31.10 31.15 31.72 32.09 31.44 31.86 33.87
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 30

Table A6. Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Continued)

Key Indicators and Consumption 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Energy Consumption per dollar of

Shipment (thousand Btu per 2000 dollars)

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases Heat and 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases Feedstocks . . . . 0.38 0.33 0.33 0.35 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.16 0.17 0.18

 Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.17 0.15

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

 Petrochemical Feedstocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.23 0.21 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.11 0.12 0.12

 Petroleum Coke . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.10

 Asphalt and Road Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.13

 Still Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.29 0.39 0.36 0.32 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.20

 Miscellaneous Petroleum2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.11 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

 Petroleum Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.73 1.70 1.68 1.61 1.25 1.24 1.23 1.04 1.05 0.98

 Natural Gas Heat and Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.09 1.14 1.15 1.20 0.92 0.91 0.94 0.82 0.83 0.78

 Natural-Gas-to-Liquids Heat and Power . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Natural Gas Feedstocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.05

 Lease and Plant Fuel3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.21 0.26 0.26 0.24 0.20 0.18 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.17

 Natural Gas Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.39 1.50 1.50 1.54 1.18 1.17 1.21 1.06 1.08 1.01

 Metallurgical Coal and Coke4 . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.06

 Other Industrial Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.24 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.14

 Coal-to-Liquids Heat and Power . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.07

 Coal Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.34 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.23 0.26 0.26

 Biofuels Heat and Coproducts . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.07 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.22 0.26 0.20

 Renewables5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.29 0.32 0.32 0.28 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.23

 Purchased Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.60 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.45 0.46 0.43

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.40 4.62 4.60 4.55 3.61 3.64 3.66 3.26 3.37 3.12

 Electricity Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.30 1.40 1.39 1.39 1.12 1.12 1.09 0.92 0.94 0.89

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.70 6.02 5.99 5.94 4.73 4.77 4.75 4.18 4.31 4.01

Industrial Combined Heat and Power

 Capacity (gigawatts) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.52 27.61 27.70 28.84 31.89 33.67 35.01 40.52 42.90 45.71

 Generation (billion kilowatthours) .......... 140.90 150.21 150.89 160.28 180.89 194.63 205.32 246.90 265.55 285.32

1

Includes energy for combined heat and power plants, except those whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 2

Includes lubricants and miscellaneous petroleum products.

3

Represents natural gas used in well, field, and lease operations, and in natural gas processing plant machinery.

4

Includes net coal coke imports.

5

Includes consumption of energy produced from hydroelectric, wood and wood waste, municipal waste, and other biomass sources.

Btu = British thermal unit.

- - = Not applicable.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2006 and 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official

EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 prices for motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil are based on: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Marketing Annual 2007,

DOE/EIA-0487(2007) (Washington, DC, August 2008). 2007 petrochemical feedstock and asphalt and road oil prices are based on: EIA, State Energy Data

Report 2006, DOE/EIA-0214(2006) (Washington, DC, October 2008). 2007 coal prices are based on: EIA, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2007,

DOE/EIA-0121(2007/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2008) and EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System run NOSTIMLS.D041409A. 2007 electricity

prices: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 2007 natural gas prices are based on: EIA, Manufacturing Energy

Consumption Survey 1994 and industrial and wellhead prices from the Natural Gas Annual 2006, DOE/EIA-0131(2006) (Washington, DC, October 2007) and the

Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(2008/08) (Washington, DC, August 2008). 2007 refining consumption based on: Petroleum Supply Annual 2007,

DOE/EIA-0340(2007)/1 (Washington, DC, July 2008). Other 2007 consumption values are based on: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007)

(Washington, DC, June 2008). 2007 shipments: IHS Global Insight industry model, November 2008. Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling

System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 31

Table A7. Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption

Key Indicators and Consumption 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Key Indicators

 Travel Indicators

 (billion vehicle miles traveled)

 Light-Duty Vehicles less than 8,500 2702 2782 2791 2747 3123 3137 3161 3859 3839 3827

 Commercial Light Trucks1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 64 65 67 83 84 85 98 97 105

 Freight Trucks greater than 10,000 248 224 228 232 296 297 303 350 347 378

 (billion seat miles available)

 Air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1036 942 968 951 1125 1126 1138 1495 1465 1410

 (billion ton miles traveled)

 Rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1733 1641 1659 1664 1898 1916 1927 2045 2057 2193

 Domestic Shipping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 662 630 636 629 712 705 744 801 796 839

 Energy Efficiency Indicators

 (miles per gallon)

 Tested New Light-Duty Vehicle2 . . . . . . . . 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.9 35.6 35.6 35.5 38.2 38.1 38.0

 New Car2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.7 40.4 40.4 39.1 42.4 42.3 41.4

 New Light Truck2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.1 23.6 23.6 23.6 29.9 29.8 30.7 32.3 32.3 33.1

 On-Road New Light-Duty Vehicle3 . . . . . . . 21.8 22.0 22.0 22.3 29.7 29.7 29.5 32.0 31.9 31.9

 New Car3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.6 24.8 24.8 25.1 33.4 33.4 32.3 35.5 35.5 34.7

 New Light Truck3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.4 19.8 19.8 19.8 25.1 25.0 25.8 27.1 27.1 27.8

 Light-Duty Stock4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.7 24.6 24.6 24.7 28.9 28.9 28.9

 New Commercial Light Truck1 . . . . . . . . . . 15.4 15.7 15.7 15.7 19.2 19.2 19.6 19.9 19.9 20.3

 Stock Commercial Light Truck1 . . . . . . . . . 14.4 14.8 14.8 14.8 17.3 17.3 17.6 19.4 19.4 19.8

 Freight Truck . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.9

 (seat miles per gallon)

 Aircraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62.8 64.3 64.2 64.4 67.8 67.8 68.1 73.5 73.4 73.6

 (ton miles per thousand Btu)

 Rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

 Domestic Shipping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Energy Use by Mode

 (quadrillion Btu)

 Light-Duty Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.47 16.36 16.41 16.20 15.73 15.79 15.80 16.60 16.53 16.51

 Commercial Light Trucks1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.62 0.55 0.55 0.57 0.60 0.61 0.61 0.63 0.63 0.67

 Bus Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28

 Freight Trucks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.15 4.65 4.74 4.81 5.67 5.69 5.79 6.39 6.33 6.90

 Rail, Passenger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06

 Rail, Freight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.59 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.68 0.69 0.73

 Shipping, Domestic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.34 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.36 0.35 0.37 0.40 0.40 0.42

 Shipping, International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.88 0.84 0.84 0.80 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91

 Recreational Boats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.28

 Air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.71 2.36 2.43 2.45 2.82 2.84 2.87 3.50 3.44 3.54

 Military Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.70 0.78 0.78 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.78 0.78 0.78

 Lubricants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15

 Pipeline Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.64 0.67 0.62 0.69 0.71 0.70 0.72

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.82 27.76 27.99 27.81 28.87 28.92 29.15 31.38 31.18 31.94
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 32

Table A7. Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption

(Continued)

Key Indicators and Consumption 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Energy Use by Mode

 (million barrels per day oil equivalent)

 Light-Duty Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.74 8.80 8.83 8.72 8.58 8.67 8.69 9.27 9.26 9.35

 Commercial Light Trucks1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.33 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.36

 Bus Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14

 Freight Trucks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.46 2.23 2.27 2.30 2.72 2.73 2.77 3.06 3.03 3.31

 Rail, Passenger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

 Rail, Freight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.35

 Shipping, Domestic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19

 Shipping, International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.39 0.37 0.37 0.35 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.40

 Recreational Boats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15

 Air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.31 1.14 1.17 1.19 1.36 1.37 1.39 1.70 1.67 1.71

 Military Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.34 0.37 0.38 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37

 Lubricants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07

 Pipeline Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.34 0.31 0.35 0.36 0.35 0.36

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.68 14.30 14.41 14.32 14.91 15.00 15.13 16.40 16.32 16.80

1

Commercial trucks 8,500 to 10,000 pounds.

2

Environmental Protection Agency rated miles per gallon.

3

Tested new vehicle efficiency revised for on-road performance.

4

Combined car and light truck “on-the-road” estimate.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data

reports.

Sources: 2007: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Annual 2006, DOE/EIA-0131(2006) (Washington, DC, October 2007); EIA, Annual Energy

Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008); Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2005 (Washington, DC, October 2006); Oak

Ridge National Laboratory, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 27 and Annual (Oak Ridge, TN, 2008); National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration,

Summary of Fuel Economy Performance (Washington, DC, March 2004); U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, “Vehicle Inventory and Use

Survey,” EC97TV (Washington, DC, October 1999); EIA, Alternatives to Traditional Transportation Fuels 2006 (Part II - User and Fuel Data), May 2008; EIA,

State Energy Data Report 2006, DOE/EIA-0214(2006) (Washington, DC, October 2008); U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Special Programs

Administration, Air Carrier Statistics Monthly, December 2007/2006 (Washington, DC, 2007); EIA, Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales 2006, DOE/EIA-0535(2006)

(Washington, DC, December 2007); and United States Department of Defense, Defense Fuel Supply Center. Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy

Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 33

Table A8. Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions

(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Generation by Fuel Type

 Electric Power Sector1

 Power Only2

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1965 1973 1971 2006 2114 2133 2093 2217 2236 2334

 Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 52 52 43 46 45 44 47 46 46

 Natural Gas3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 685 621 594 629 624 517 687 848 742 772

 Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 806 809 809 809 895 876 862 929 890 907

 Pumped Storage/Other4 ............... 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

 Renewable Sources5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314 396 427 411 529 631 543 590 672 610

 Distributed Generation (Natural Gas) ..... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3827 3852 3854 3899 4209 4203 4230 4632 4587 4670

 Combined Heat and Power6

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 32 32 32 33 33 32 33 33 32

 Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 108 106 107 111 103 114 112 111 109

 Renewable Sources .................. 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 144 142 143 150 142 151 150 149 146

 Total Net Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4006 3996 3996 4042 4358 4344 4381 4782 4736 4816

 Less Direct Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 34 34 34 34 33 34 33 33 33

 Net Available to the Grid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3972 3963 3962 4009 4325 4311 4348 4749 4703 4783

 End-Use Generation7

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 19 19 19 25 31 31 32 42 48

 Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 4 4 13 4 4 13 4 4 14

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 74 76 78 96 94 97 131 123 131

 Other Gaseous Fuels8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 19 18 16 15 16 15 17 16 15

 Renewable Sources9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 37 37 36 63 72 69 107 120 116

 Other10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 164 166 174 215 229 237 302 318 337

 Less Direct Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 132 133 142 173 181 188 235 241 261

 Total Sales to the Grid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 33 33 33 42 48 49 67 77 76

Total Electricity Generation by Fuel

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2021 2024 2022 2057 2172 2198 2156 2281 2311 2415

 Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 56 56 56 50 49 58 51 50 60

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 892 803 775 814 830 714 898 1090 976 1012

 Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 806 809 809 809 895 876 862 929 890 907

 Renewable Sources5,9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352 436 468 451 598 708 617 703 798 730

 Other11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 31 31 29 28 28 28 29 29 28

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4159 4161 4162 4217 4573 4573 4618 5084 5055 5153

Total Electricity Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4159 4161 4162 4217 4573 4573 4618 5084 5055 5153

Total Net Generation to the Grid . . . . . . . . . . . 4003 3996 3995 4042 4367 4359 4396 4816 4780 4859

Net Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 23 23 24 16 14 18 27 8 28

Electricity Sales by Sector

 Residential ............................ 1392 1409 1403 1406 1495 1476 1499 1694 1662 1667

 Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1343 1403 1402 1393 1614 1620 1632 1864 1864 1850

 Industrial ............................. 1006 919 926 979 1011 1020 1021 991 986 1077

 Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 14 14 15

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3747 3737 3737 3785 4129 4127 4162 4563 4527 4609

 Direct Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 165 166 175 207 214 222 268 275 294

 Total Electricity Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3903 3902 3904 3960 4335 4341 4384 4831 4801 4903
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 34

Table A8. Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions (Continued)

(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

End-Use Prices

 (2007 cents per kilowatthour)

 Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 9.8 9.8 10.5 11.3 11.1 11.2 12.2 11.8 12.2

 Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.5 8.5 9.3 9.8 9.4 9.6 10.5 10.1 10.6

 Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 5.7 5.7 6.4 6.7 6.4 6.5 7.3 7.0 7.4

 Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 9.3 9.3 10.4 10.3 9.9 10.1 11.5 11.1 11.7

 All Sectors Average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 8.3 8.3 9.0 9.6 9.3 9.4 10.4 10.1 10.4

 (nominal cents per kilowatthour)

 Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 10.1 10.1 11.1 14.2 14.1 14.4 18.9 18.6 17.7

 Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.8 8.8 9.8 12.2 12.0 12.4 16.3 16.0 15.3

 Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 5.9 6.0 6.7 8.4 8.1 8.4 11.3 11.1 10.7

 Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 9.6 9.7 10.9 12.9 12.6 13.0 17.8 17.5 16.9

 All Sectors Average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 8.6 8.6 9.5 12.0 11.8 12.2 16.2 15.9 15.1

Prices by Service Category

 (2007 cents per kilowatthour)

 Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 5.3 5.2 6.0 6.4 6.1 6.2 7.2 6.9 7.3

 Transmission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9

 Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3

 (nominal cents per kilowatthour)

 Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 5.4 5.4 6.3 8.0 7.7 8.1 11.2 10.9 10.5

 Transmission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3

 Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.4

Electric Power Sector Emissions1

 Sulfur Dioxide (million tons) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.95 6.09 6.15 7.51 3.89 3.97 3.86 3.64 3.57 3.74

 Nitrogen Oxide (million tons) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.29 2.29 2.29 2.37 2.09 2.07 2.10 2.11 2.10 2.12

 Mercury (tons) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49.28 43.52 43.82 45.19 28.81 29.08 29.13 28.86 28.89 29.57

1

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 2

Includes plants that only produce electricity.

3

Includes electricity generation from fuel cells.

4

Includes non-biogenic municipal waste. The Energy Information Administration estimates approximately 7 billion kilowatthours of electricity were generated

from a municipal waste stream containing petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. See Energy Information Administration, Methodology for

Allocating Municipal Solid Waste to Biogenic and Non-Biogenic Energy, (Washington, DC, May 2007). 5

Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, biogenic municipal waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, and wind power. 6

Includes combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity and heat to the public (i.e., those that report North American Industry

Classification System code 22). 7

Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors; and small on-site generating systems in the

residential, commercial, and industrial sectors used primarily for own-use generation, but which may also sell some power to the grid. 8

Includes refinery gas and still gas.

9

Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, all municipal waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, and wind power. 10Includes batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, and miscellaneous technologies.

11Includes pumped storage, non-biogenic municipal waste, refinery gas, still gas, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, and

miscellaneous technologies.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data

reports.

Sources: 2007 electric power sector generation; sales to utilities; net imports; electricity sales; and emissions: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008), and supporting databases. 2007 prices: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy

Modeling System run NOSTIMLS.D041409A. Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A,

STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 35

Table A9. Electricity Generating Capacity

(Gigawatts)

Net Summer Capacity1 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Electric Power Sector2

 Power Only3

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306.7 316.4 316.4 316.4 321.1 323.0 322.4 331.9 333.5 347.9

 Oil and Natural Gas Steam4 ............. 118.4 118.0 118.0 118.0 100.2 92.7 101.4 98.9 92.6 100.1

 Combined Cycle ...................... 149.2 163.0 163.0 163.0 167.0 164.3 170.3 214.1 202.3 205.2

 Combustion Turbine/Diesel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130.4 135.8 135.6 139.2 147.8 138.0 152.9 204.1 186.5 198.1

 Nuclear Power5 ....................... 100.5 101.2 101.2 101.2 113.1 110.3 108.4 115.0 110.1 112.6

 Pumped Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5

 Fuel Cells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Renewable Sources6 ................... 100.8 114.9 124.9 114.9 120.0 155.1 121.7 132.1 159.7 138.2

 Distributed Generation7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 927.5 970.7 980.6 974.2 990.6 1004.8 998.5 1117.6 1106.3 1123.8

 Combined Heat and Power8

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6

 Oil and Natural Gas Steam4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

 Combined Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5

 Combustion Turbine/Diesel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9

 Renewable Sources6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.3 40.4 40.4 40.4 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0

 Cumulative Planned Additions9

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 11.3 11.3 11.3 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0

 Oil and Natural Gas Steam4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Combined Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 13.8 13.8 13.8 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3

 Combustion Turbine/Diesel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2

 Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

 Pumped Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Fuel Cells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Renewable Sources6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.1

 Distributed Generation7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 46.6 46.6 46.6 46.8 46.8 46.8

 Cumulative Unplanned Additions9

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 11.8 12.5 26.6

 Oil and Natural Gas Steam4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Combined Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.5 6.4 50.2 38.4 41.3

 Combustion Turbine/Diesel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 2.5 2.3 5.9 20.0 13.6 24.6 76.3 62.1 69.8

 Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 5.2 3.3 14.3 9.4 11.9

 Pumped Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Fuel Cells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Renewable Sources6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 4.4 14.4 4.4 9.4 44.4 11.0 21.2 48.9 27.3

 Distributed Generation7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 6.9 16.7 10.3 41.5 65.7 46.3 174.0 171.4 177.1

 Cumulative Electric Power Sector 0.0 44.9 54.7 48.3 88.1 112.3 92.9 220.8 218.2 223.9

 Cumulative Retirements10

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.6 3.8 2.8 2.3 3.8 2.8 2.3

 Oil and Natural Gas Steam4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 18.2 25.7 17.0 19.5 25.8 18.3

 Combined Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Combustion Turbine/Diesel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 5.8 9.2 5.3 5.8 9.2 5.3

 Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 4.4 4.4

 Pumped Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Fuel Cells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Renewable Sources6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.6 1.6 2.3 27.8 37.8 24.5 33.5 42.2 30.2

Total Electric Power Sector Capacity . . . . . . . 967.8 1011.1 1020.9 1014.5 1031.6 1045.8 1039.5 1158.6 1147.3 1164.9
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 36

Table A9. Electricity Generating Capacity (Continued)

(Gigawatts)

Net Summer Capacity1 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

End-Use Generators11

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 7.1 7.9

 Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.4 2.6 1.4 1.4 2.6 1.4 1.4 2.7

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.1 13.2 13.4 13.8 16.2 16.0 16.4 20.8 19.9 21.0

 Other Gaseous Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.7

 Renewable Sources6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 7.6 7.9 7.5 18.8 20.6 18.1 26.3 28.5 26.4

 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.9 31.4 31.8 32.6 45.9 48.4 47.3 59.0 61.5 62.6

 Cumulative Capacity Additions9 . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 3.5 3.9 4.8 18.0 20.5 19.5 31.1 33.6 34.8

1

Net summer capacity is the steady hourly output that generating equipment is expected to supply to system load (exclusive of auxiliary power), as demonstrated by tests

during summer peak demand. 2

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 3

Includes plants that only produce electricity. Includes capacity increases (uprates) at existing units.

4

Includes oil-, gas-, and dual-fired capacity.

5

Nuclear capacity includes 3.4 gigawatts of uprates through 2030.

6

Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, all municipal waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, and wind power. Facilities co-firing biomass and

coal are classified as coal. 7

Primarily peak load capacity fueled by natural gas.

8

Includes combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity and heat to the public (i.e., those that report North American Industry Classification

System code 22). 9

Cumulative additions after December 31, 2007.

10Cumulative retirements after December 31, 2007.

11Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors; and small on-site generating systems in the residential,

commercial, and industrial sectors used primarily for own-use generation, but which may also sell some power to the grid.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 capacity and projected planned additions: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Form EIA-860, "Annual Electric Generator Report” (preliminary). 

Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 37

Table A10. Electricity Trade

(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Electricity Trade 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Interregional Electricity Trade

 Gross Domestic Sales

 Firm Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124.5 118.7 118.7 118.7 81.8 81.8 81.8 37.6 37.6 37.6

 Economy ............................ 119.3 200.9 191.6 207.9 214.0 230.3 232.0 198.6 188.9 186.5

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243.8 319.6 310.3 326.6 295.7 312.1 313.8 236.2 226.5 224.0

 Gross Domestic Sales (million 2007

 Firm Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7133.1 6799.0 6799.0 6799.0 4683.5 4683.5 4683.5 2152.7 2152.7 2152.7

 Economy ............................ 7447.7 8904.5 8323.2 11340.4 12267. 12682.6 12766.6 13288. 11899.0 12768.4

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14580.7 15703.6 15122.2 18139.4 16951.3 17366.1 17450.1 15441.3 14051.6 14921.1

 International Electricity Trade

 Imports from Canada and Mexico

 Firm Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.8 16.6 16.6 16.6 7.3 7.3 7.3 0.4 0.4 0.4

 Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.6 28.2 28.2 29.3 29.2 27.4 31.4 45.4 25.9 46.0

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51.4 44.7 44.7 45.9 36.5 34.8 38.7 45.8 26.3 46.4

 Exports to Canada and Mexico

 Firm Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.2 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.4 20.4 20.4 18.5 18.5 18.5

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.1 21.5 21.5 21.5 20.9 20.9 20.9 18.5 18.5 18.5

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. Firm

Power Sales are capacity sales, meaning the delivery of the power is scheduled as part of the normal operating conditions of the affected electric systems. Economy Sales are

subject to curtailment or cessation of delivery by the supplier in accordance with prior agreements or under specified conditions.

Sources: 2007 interregional firm electricity trade data: North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), Electricity Sales and Demand Database 2007. 2007 Mexican

electricity trade data: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Electric Power Annual 2007 DOE/EIA-0348(2007) (Washington, DC, December 2008). 2007 Canadian electricity

trade data: National Energy Board, Annual Report 2007. Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A,

and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 38

Table A11. Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition

(Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply and Disposition 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Crude Oil

 Domestic Crude Production1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.07 5.52 5.52 5.62 5.86 5.79 6.48 7.21 7.14 7.37

 Alaska . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.72 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.64 0.64 0.72 0.59 0.59 0.57

 Lower 48 States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.35 4.84 4.84 4.93 5.22 5.15 5.76 6.62 6.55 6.80

 Net Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.00 8.23 8.31 8.10 7.99 7.97 7.29 7.02 6.88 6.95

 Gross Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.03 8.26 8.34 8.13 8.02 8.00 7.33 7.06 6.92 6.99

 Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04

 Other Crude Supply2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Total Crude Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.16 13.75 13.83 13.72 13.85 13.76 13.77 14.23 14.02 14.32

Other Supply

 Natural Gas Plant Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.78 1.88 1.87 1.91 1.83 1.81 1.91 1.91 1.87 1.92

 Net Product Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.09 1.73 1.80 1.66 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.43 1.39 1.40

 Gross Refined Product Imports3 . . . . . . . . . . 1.94 1.62 1.67 1.64 1.52 1.52 1.60 1.52 1.51 1.54

 Unfinished Oil Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.72 0.70 0.71 0.58 0.71 0.70 0.58 0.76 0.74 0.65

 Blending Component Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.75 0.63 0.64 0.62 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.66 0.69

 Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.32 1.22 1.21 1.18 1.38 1.38 1.35 1.52 1.52 1.47

 Refinery Processing Gain4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.00 0.94 0.94 0.97 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.83 0.82 0.86

 Other Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.74 1.15 1.15 1.22 1.69 1.89 1.98 2.58 2.77 3.08

 Ethanol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.45 0.84 0.85 0.84 1.12 1.23 1.28 1.66 1.72 1.91

 Domestic Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.43 0.86 0.86 0.84 1.07 1.19 1.24 1.52 1.61 1.43

 Net Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.00 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.15 0.11 0.49

 Biodiesel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.13

 Domestic Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.13

 Net Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Liquids from Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Liquids from Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.20 0.26

 Liquids from Biomass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.26 0.33 0.33

 Other5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.32 0.37 0.36 0.42 0.42 0.40 0.45

Total Primary Supply6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.77 19.45 19.61 19.48 19.79 19.89 20.08 20.98 20.87 21.59

Liquid Fuels Consumption

 by Fuel

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.09 1.83 1.88 1.99 1.75 1.76 1.82 1.56 1.58 1.74

 E857 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.51 0.58 1.11 1.20 1.50

 Motor Gasoline8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.29 9.40 9.43 9.34 8.76 8.67 8.60 8.36 8.24 8.04

 Jet Fuel9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.62 1.42 1.45 1.45 1.63 1.63 1.65 1.97 1.94 1.99

 Distillate Fuel Oil10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.20 4.05 4.10 4.08 4.55 4.56 4.62 5.18 5.14 5.42

 Diesel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.47 3.41 3.46 3.47 4.00 4.01 4.06 4.66 4.63 4.91

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.63 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.72 0.71 0.72

 Other11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.74 2.22 2.22 2.19 2.21 2.22 2.24 2.12 2.11 2.25

 by Sector

 Residential and Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.11 1.12 1.11 1.05 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97

 Industrial12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.26 4.31 4.37 4.46 4.25 4.28 4.34 3.97 3.97 4.28

 Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.25 13.95 14.06 13.96 14.47 14.56 14.65 15.84 15.77 16.18

 Electric Power13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.30 0.27 0.26 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.23

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.65 19.64 19.81 19.69 19.95 20.05 20.21 21.02 20.92 21.67

Discrepancy14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.12 -0.19 -0.20 -0.20 -0.16 -0.16 -0.13 -0.04 -0.05 -0.08
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 39

Table A11. Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition (Continued)

(Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply and Disposition 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Domestic Refinery Distillation Capacity15 . . . . . . 17.4 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.5 18.4 18.4

Capacity Utilization Rate (percent)16 . . . . . . . . . . 89.0 78.0 78.5 77.8 77.6 77.1 77.1 78.6 77.6 79.2

Net Import Share of Product Supplied (percent) 58.3 51.2 51.5 50.1 48.2 47.8 44.0 41.0 40.1 40.9

Net Expenditures for Imported Crude Oil and

 Petroleum Products (billion 2007 dollars) .... 280.13 167.57 169.66 261.60 376.01 375.89 344.32 368.79 360.63 376.65

1

Includes lease condensate.

2

Strategic petroleum reserve stock additions plus unaccounted for crude oil and crude stock withdrawals minus crude product supplied. 3

Includes other hydrocarbons and alcohols.

4

The volumetric amount by which total output is greater than input due to the processing of crude oil into products which, in total, have a lower specific gravity than the crude

oil processed. 5

Includes petroleum product stock withdrawals; and domestic sources of other blending components, other hydrocarbons, ethers, and renewable feedstocks for the on-site

production of diesel and gasoline. 6

Total crude supply plus natural gas plant liquids, other inputs, refinery processing gain, and net product imports.

7

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues, the percentage of ethanol varies

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 8

Includes ethanol and ethers blended into gasoline.

9

Includes only kerosene type.

10Includes distillate fuel oil and kerosene from petroleum and biomass feedstocks.

11Includes aviation gasoline, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, waxes, asphalt, road oil, still gas, special naphthas, petroleum coke, crude oil product supplied, methanol,

liquid hydrogen,and miscellaneous petroleum products. 12Includes consumption for combined heat and power, which produces electricity and other useful thermal energy.

13Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 

Includes small power producers and exempt wholesale generators. 14Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses, and gains.

15End-of-year operable capacity.

16Rate is calculated by dividing the gross annual input to atmospheric crude oil distillation units by their operable refining capacity in barrels per calendar day.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 petroleum product supplied based on: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June

2008). Other 2007 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0340(2007)/1 (Washington, DC, July 2008). Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling

System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 40

Table A12. Petroleum Product Prices

(2007 Cents per Gallon, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Fuel 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Crude Oil Prices (2007 dollars per barrel)

 Imported Low Sulfur Light Crude Oil1 . . . . . . . 72.33 52.13 52.16 80.16 116.56 116.79 115.45 130.50 130.92 130.43

 Imported Crude Oil1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.83 49.05 48.99 77.56 114.35 114.50 112.05 124.45 124.36 124.60

Delivered Sector Product Prices

 Residential

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ............. 213.5 177.1 177.0 221.1 284.6 285.1 281.1 300.5 300.7 300.2

 Distillate Fuel Oil ...................... 272.7 185.0 185.2 259.2 338.5 341.7 334.3 371.9 371.3 369.9

 Commercial

 Distillate Fuel Oil ...................... 221.7 148.0 148.4 222.8 307.4 311.7 304.9 340.2 339.8 340.4

 Residual Fuel Oil ..................... 154.3 86.7 86.8 164.2 252.3 252.3 249.7 267.8 267.6 269.1

 Residual Fuel Oil (2007 dollars per barrel) . . 64.80 36.41 36.47 68.96 105.96 105.98 104.88 112.46 112.37 113.04

 Industrial2

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ............. 199.9 141.5 142.3 186.7 249.0 249.4 246.0 263.6 263.8 265.0

 Distillate Fuel Oil ...................... 232.3 145.5 146.1 220.2 311.3 316.6 309.6 344.3 344.2 345.8

 Residual Fuel Oil ..................... 158.6 147.0 147.4 230.2 310.0 310.3 313.4 331.7 330.5 340.2

 Residual Fuel Oil (2007 dollars per barrel) . . 66.61 61.73 61.89 96.70 130.21 130.32 131.64 139.30 138.81 142.89

 Transportation

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ............. 213.8 175.7 175.6 219.5 282.6 283.0 278.9 297.6 297.7 297.3

 Ethanol (E85)3 ....................... 254.4 178.6 179.0 241.7 275.5 280.8 278.0 296.4 293.5 285.5

 Ethanol Wholesale Price ............... 212.4 187.0 187.6 192.8 205.3 208.7 201.1 209.3 204.3 193.8

 Motor Gasoline4 ...................... 282.2 213.8 214.3 283.9 358.2 362.2 359.9 384.9 382.1 388.4

 Jet Fuel5 ............................ 217.4 139.9 140.6 216.5 300.1 301.8 299.1 333.3 333.0 332.4

 Diesel Fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 ............ 286.8 199.7 200.6 274.9 358.9 364.4 356.8 388.6 388.3 391.7

 Residual Fuel Oil ..................... 141.2 99.1 98.6 181.1 256.4 256.9 261.4 282.0 281.9 294.1

 Residual Fuel Oil (2007 dollars per barrel) . . 59.32 41.60 41.40 76.07 107.68 107.90 109.80 118.43 118.42 123.54

 Electric Power7

 Distillate Fuel Oil ...................... 204.9 135.6 135.8 209.2 288.0 291.0 283.6 322.2 321.9 320.5

 Residual Fuel Oil ..................... 128.2 99.9 99.9 197.7 262.2 262.6 277.7 286.2 288.1 309.5

 Residual Fuel Oil (2007 dollars per barrel) . . 53.86 41.97 41.97 83.03 110.10 110.29 116.64 120.21 121.01 129.98

 Refined Petroleum Product Prices8

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ............. 158.4 139.7 139.3 179.2 240.2 240.4 235.7 257.3 256.9 254.5

 Motor Gasoline4 ...................... 280.2 213.8 214.3 283.9 358.1 362.2 359.9 384.9 382.1 388.4

 Jet Fuel5 ............................ 217.4 139.9 140.6 216.5 300.1 301.8 299.1 333.3 333.0 332.4

 Distillate Fuel Oil ...................... 274.3 186.1 186.8 260.9 348.7 354.0 346.8 380.5 380.2 383.2

 Residual Fuel Oil ..................... 140.2 103.6 103.5 189.6 262.8 263.3 269.8 286.9 287.2 301.1

 Residual Fuel Oil (2007 dollars per barrel) . . 58.89 43.52 43.47 79.62 110.38 110.59 113.34 120.49 120.63 126.47

 Average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249.2 186.6 186.8 254.9 331.8 335.1 331.1 360.3 358.5 361.4
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 41

Table A12. Petroleum Product Prices (Continued)

(Nominal Cents per Gallon, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Fuel 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Crude Oil Prices (nominal dollars per barrel)

 Imported Low Sulfur Light Crude Oil1 . . . . . . . 72.33 54.00 54.13 84.42 146.20 148.30 149.14 202.00 207.19 189.10

 Imported Crude Oil1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.83 50.81 50.84 81.69 143.44 145.39 144.74 192.63 196.81 180.66

Delivered Sector Product Prices

 Residential

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213.5 183.4 183.6 232.9 357.0 362.0 363.1 465.2 475.8 435.2

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272.7 191.6 192.2 273.0 424.6 433.9 431.8 575.6 587.6 536.3

 Commercial

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221.7 153.3 154.0 234.6 385.5 395.8 393.8 526.6 537.8 493.5

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154.3 89.8 90.1 172.9 316.5 320.4 322.6 414.5 423.4 390.2

 Industrial2

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199.9 146.6 147.6 196.6 312.3 316.7 317.8 408.0 417.4 384.2

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232.3 150.7 151.6 231.9 390.5 402.0 400.0 533.0 544.7 501.4

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158.6 152.2 152.9 242.5 388.9 394.0 404.9 513.3 523.0 493.3

 Transportation

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213.8 182.0 182.2 231.2 354.5 359.3 360.3 460.6 471.1 431.0

 Ethanol (E85)3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254.4 185.0 185.8 254.5 345.6 356.5 359.1 458.8 464.5 414.0

 Ethanol Wholesale Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212.4 193.7 194.7 203.1 257.5 265.0 259.8 323.9 323.3 280.9

 Motor Gasoline4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282.2 221.5 222.4 299.0 449.3 460.0 464.9 595.8 604.7 563.1

 Jet Fuel5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217.4 144.9 145.9 228.0 376.4 383.3 386.4 515.9 527.0 482.0

 Diesel Fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 . . . . . . . . . . . . 286.8 206.8 208.2 289.6 450.2 462.7 460.9 601.5 614.5 567.9

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141.2 102.6 102.3 190.8 321.6 326.2 337.7 436.4 446.2 426.5

 Electric Power7

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204.9 140.4 140.9 220.4 361.3 369.5 366.4 498.7 509.5 464.7

 Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128.2 103.5 103.7 208.2 328.8 333.4 358.8 443.0 456.0 448.7

 Refined Petroleum Product Prices8

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158.4 144.7 144.6 188.7 301.4 305.2 304.5 398.3 406.6 369.1

 Motor Gasoline4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280.2 221.4 222.4 299.0 449.2 459.9 464.9 595.8 604.7 563.1

 Jet Fuel5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217.4 144.9 145.9 228.0 376.4 383.3 386.4 515.9 527.0 482.0

 Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274.3 192.8 193.9 274.7 437.4 449.5 448.0 588.9 601.6 555.7

 Residual Fuel Oil

 (nominal dollars per barrel) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58.89 45.08 45.11 83.86 138.46 140.42 146.41 186.49 190.91 183.36

 Average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249.2 193.3 193.8 268.5 416.2 425.6 427.7 557.7 567.4 524.0

1

Weighted average price delivered to U.S. refiners.

2

Includes energy for combined heat and power plants, except those whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 3

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues, the percentage of ethanol varies

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 4

Sales weighted-average price for all grades. Includes Federal, State and local taxes.

5

Includes only kerosene type.

6

Diesel fuel for on-road use. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.

7

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. Includes small power

producers and exempt wholesale generators. 8

Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption.

Note: Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 imported low sulfur light crude oil price: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Form EIA-856, “Monthly Foreign Crude Oil Acquisition Report.” 2007

imported crude oil price: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 2007 prices for motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel

are based on: EIA, Petroleum Marketing Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0487(2007) (Washington, DC, August 2008). 2007 residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation

sector petroleum product prices are derived from: EIA, Form EIA-782A, “Refiners’/Gas Plant Operators’ Monthly Petroleum Product Sales Report.” 2007 electric power prices

based on: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FERC Form 423, “Monthly Report of Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Plants.” 2007 E85 prices derived from monthly

prices in the Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report. 2007 wholesale ethanol prices derived from Bloomburg U.S. average rack price. Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National

Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 42

Table A13. Natural Gas Supply, Disposition, and Prices

(Trillion Cubic Feet per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Production

 Dry Gas Production1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.30 20.10 20.02 20.38 20.57 19.58 21.48 23.48 23.03 23.60

 Supplemental Natural Gas2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

Net Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.79 2.41 2.34 2.50 1.79 1.85 1.86 0.80 0.38 0.66

 Pipeline3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.06 2.02 1.96 2.02 0.40 0.47 0.48 -0.02 -0.43 -0.18

 Liquefied Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.72 0.38 0.38 0.47 1.40 1.38 1.38 0.82 0.81 0.85

Total Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.14 22.57 22.42 22.94 22.43 21.50 23.40 24.34 23.47 24.33

Consumption by Sector

 Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.72 4.97 4.92 4.79 4.90 4.86 4.96 4.93 4.87 4.93

 Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.01 3.18 3.18 3.06 3.24 3.23 3.25 3.49 3.43 3.44

 Industrial4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.63 5.83 6.00 6.59 6.30 6.36 6.65 6.36 6.34 6.85

 Natural-Gas-to-Liquids Heat and Power5 . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Natural Gas to Liquids Production6 . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Electric Power7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.87 6.13 5.91 6.25 6.05 5.22 6.54 7.40 6.70 6.93

 Transportation8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09

 Pipeline Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.65 0.60 0.67 0.69 0.68 0.70

 Lease and Plant Fuel9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.17 1.25 1.24 1.24 1.26 1.19 1.29 1.42 1.40 1.43

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.05 22.01 21.89 22.57 22.46 21.53 23.43 24.36 23.50 24.36

Discrepancy10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.09 0.56 0.53 0.37 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03

Natural Gas Prices

 (2007 dollars per million Btu)

 Henry Hub Spot Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.96 5.14 5.11 6.66 7.53 7.47 7.43 8.91 8.83 9.25

 Average Lower 48 Wellhead Price11 . . . . . . . 6.22 4.55 4.51 5.88 6.65 6.60 6.56 7.87 7.80 8.17

 (2007 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

 Average Lower 48 Wellhead Price11 . . . . . . . 6.39 4.67 4.64 6.05 6.84 6.79 6.75 8.09 8.01 8.40

 Delivered Prices

 (2007 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

 Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.05 11.51 11.51 12.43 12.97 12.91 12.85 14.45 14.35 14.71

 Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.30 9.77 9.73 10.84 11.47 11.39 11.44 12.99 12.87 13.32

 Industrial4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.73 5.71 5.65 7.10 7.77 7.68 7.69 9.04 8.94 9.33

 Electric Power7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.22 5.36 5.27 6.77 7.37 7.22 7.35 8.69 8.57 8.94

 Transportation12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.93 13.94 13.88 15.32 15.47 15.36 15.31 16.29 16.14 16.70

 Average13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.26 7.69 7.64 8.80 9.50 9.48 9.37 10.77 10.71 11.05
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 43

Table A13. Natural Gas Supply, Disposition, and Prices (Continued)

(Trillion Cubic Feet per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Natural Gas Prices

 (nominal dollars per million Btu)

 Henry Hub Spot Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.96 5.33 5.30 7.01 9.44 9.49 9.60 13.79 13.97 13.42

 Average Lower 48 Wellhead Price11 . . . . . . . 6.22 4.71 4.68 6.19 8.34 8.38 8.48 12.18 12.34 11.85

 (nominal dollars per thousand cubic feet)

 Average Lower 48 Wellhead Price11 . . . . . . . 6.39 4.84 4.81 6.37 8.58 8.62 8.72 12.52 12.68 12.18

 Delivered Prices

 (nominal dollars per thousand cubic feet)

 Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.05 11.93 11.94 13.09 16.27 16.39 16.60 22.36 22.71 21.33

 Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.30 10.12 10.10 11.42 14.39 14.46 14.77 20.11 20.37 19.31

 Industrial4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.73 5.92 5.87 7.48 9.75 9.75 9.93 14.00 14.14 13.52

 Electric Power7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.22 5.55 5.47 7.13 9.25 9.17 9.49 13.45 13.57 12.96

 Transportation12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.93 14.44 14.40 16.13 19.40 19.51 19.78 25.22 25.54 24.21

 Average13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.26 7.97 7.93 9.26 11.92 12.04 12.10 16.67 16.95 16.02

1

Marketed production (wet) minus extraction losses.

2

Synthetic natural gas, propane air, coke oven gas, refinery gas, biomass gas, air injected for Btu stabilization, and manufactured gas commingled and distributed with

natural gas. 3

Includes any natural gas regasified in the Bahamas and transported via pipeline to Florida, as well as gas from Canada and Mexico. 4

Includes energy for combined heat and power plants, except those whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 5

Includes any natural gas used in the process of converting natural gas to liquid fuel that is not actually converted.

6

Includes any natural gas that is converted into liquid fuel.

7

Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 

Includes small power producers and exempt wholesale generators. 8

Compressed natural gas used as vehicle fuel.

9

Represents natural gas used in well, field, and lease operations, and in natural gas processing plant machinery.

10Balancing item. Natural gas lost as a result of converting flow data measured at varying temperatures and pressures to a standard temperature and pressure and the

merger of different data reporting systems which vary in scope, format, definition, and respondent type. In addition, 2006 and 2007 values include net storage injections. 11Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies.

12Compressed natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. Price includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes and estimated dispensing costs or charges. 13Weighted average prices. Weights used are the sectoral consumption values excluding lease, plant, and pipeline fuel.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 supply values; and lease, plant, and pipeline fuel consumption; and wellhead price: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA0130(2008/08) (Washington, DC, August 2008). Other 2007 consumption based on: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008).

2007 residential and commercial delivered prices: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(2008/08) (Washington, DC, August 2008). 2007 electric power prices: EIA,

Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226, April 2007 and April 2008, Table 4.13.B. 2007 industrial delivered prices are estimated based on: EIA, Manufacturing Energy

Consumption Survey 1994 and industrial and wellhead prices from the Natural Gas Annual 2006, DOE/EIA-0131(2006) (Washington, DC, October 2007) and the Natural Gas

Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(2008/08) (Washington, DC, August 2008). 2007 transportation sector delivered prices are model results. Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National

Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 44

Table A14. Oil and Gas Supply

Production and Supply 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Crude Oil

 Lower 48 Average Wellhead Price1

 (2007 dollars per barrel) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.70 48.87 48.85 77.30 113.80 114.07 110.99 122.91 122.75 122.82

 Production (million barrels per day)2

 United States Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.07 5.52 5.52 5.62 5.86 5.79 6.48 7.21 7.14 7.37

 Lower 48 Onshore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.91 2.90 2.90 2.92 3.11 3.11 3.37 3.78 3.77 4.06

 Lower 48 Offshore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.44 1.94 1.94 2.01 2.10 2.04 2.39 2.84 2.78 2.74

 Alaska . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.72 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.64 0.64 0.72 0.59 0.59 0.57

 Lower 48 End of Year Reserves2

 (billion barrels) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.62 18.78 18.78 19.21 20.62 20.44 22.50 24.66 24.39 25.38

Natural Gas

 Lower 48 Average Wellhead Price1

 (2007 dollars per million Btu)

 Henry Hub Spot Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.96 5.14 5.11 6.66 7.53 7.47 7.43 8.91 8.83 9.25

 Average Lower 48 Wellhead Price1 . . . . . . . 6.22 4.55 4.51 5.88 6.65 6.60 6.56 7.87 7.80 8.17

 (2007 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

 Average Lower 48 Wellhead Price1 . . . . . . . 6.39 4.67 4.64 6.05 6.84 6.79 6.75 8.09 8.01 8.40

 Dry Production (trillion cubic feet)3

 United States Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.30 20.10 20.02 20.38 20.57 19.58 21.48 23.48 23.03 23.60

 Lower 48 Onshore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.91 16.32 16.24 16.75 15.56 15.50 16.11 16.09 15.77 16.76

 Associated-Dissolved4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.39 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.32 1.32 1.37 1.29 1.29 1.32

 Non-Associated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.51 14.91 14.83 15.34 14.24 14.18 14.74 14.81 14.48 15.44

 Conventional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.36 4.53 4.52 4.70 3.40 3.39 3.36 2.16 2.14 2.18

 Unconventional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.15 10.38 10.32 10.64 10.84 10.78 11.38 12.65 12.34 13.26

 Gas Shale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.17 2.24 2.23 2.31 2.78 2.71 2.97 3.88 3.66 4.15

 Coalbed Methane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.84 1.75 1.73 1.79 1.72 1.73 1.78 1.96 1.96 2.01

 Tight Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.15 6.39 6.35 6.54 6.34 6.35 6.62 6.81 6.71 7.10

 Lower 48 Offshore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.97 3.39 3.38 3.26 3.85 3.72 4.23 5.40 5.28 4.88

 Associated-Dissolved4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.62 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.95 0.93 1.00 1.15 1.12 1.16

 Non-Associated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.35 2.67 2.66 2.55 2.90 2.79 3.23 4.25 4.16 3.72

 Alaska . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.42 0.39 0.39 0.37 1.17 0.36 1.14 1.99 1.99 1.96

 Lower 48 End of Year Dry Reserves3

 (trillion cubic feet) ..................... 225.18 228.25 228.12 230.11 203.44 199.09 213.14 209.23 203.35 211.98

 Supplemental Gas Supplies (trillion cubic 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

Total Lower 48 Wells Drilled (thousands) . . . 53.51 40.95 40.83 45.17 45.89 43.50 48.20 51.41 49.25 53.76

1

Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies.

2

Includes lease condensate.

3

Marketed production (wet) minus extraction losses.

4

Gas which occurs in crude oil reservoirs either as free gas (associated) or as gas in solution with crude oil (dissolved).

5

Synthetic natural gas, propane air, coke oven gas, refinery gas, biomass gas, air injected for Btu stabilization, and manufactured gas commingled and distributed with

natural gas.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2006 and 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data

reports.

Sources: 2007 crude oil lower 48 average wellhead price: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Marketing Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0487(2007) (Washington,

DC, August 2008). 2007 lower 48 onshore, lower 48 offshore, and Alaska crude oil production: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0340(2007)/1 (Washington, DC,

July 2008). 2007 natural gas lower 48 average wellhead price, Alaska and total natural gas production, and supplemental gas supplies: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA0130(2008/08) (Washington, DC, August 2008). Other 2007 values: EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy

Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 45

Table A15. Coal Supply, Disposition, and Prices

(Million Short Tons per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Production1

 Appalachia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378 356 356 383 332 334 333 323 327 353

 Interior . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 157 157 163 176 187 206 205 212 252

 West . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 621 632 633 632 692 702 671 716 734 735

 East of the Mississippi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 478 459 458 500 456 460 478 463 471 529

 West of the Mississippi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 668 686 687 677 745 763 732 780 801 812

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1147 1145 1145 1177 1201 1223 1210 1243 1272 1341

Waste Coal Supplied2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 11 11 11 9 10 12 10 11 13

Net Imports

 Imports3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 34 34 34 60 61 48 57 62 53

 Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 73 73 82 54 54 53 37 40 44

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -25 -39 -39 -48 5 7 -5 20 22 10

Total Supply4 ........................... 1136 1117 1117 1140 1215 1240 1217 1273 1305 1363

Consumption by Sector

 Residential and Commercial .............. 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

 Coke Plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 19 20 21 18 19 19 15 15 18

 Other Industrial5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 48 49 60 53 54 56 53 53 57

 Coal-to-Liquids Heat and Power . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 8 18 16 17 32 38

 Coal to Liquids Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 7 15 14 14 27 32

 Electric Power6 ........................ 1046 1046 1045 1056 1125 1131 1110 1170 1174 1215

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1129 1117 1117 1140 1215 1240 1218 1273 1305 1363

Discrepancy and Stock Change7 . . . . . . . . . . . 7 -0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 -0 0 -0

Average Minemouth Price8

 (2007 dollars per short ton) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.82 26.59 26.65 29.45 27.44 27.38 27.90 27.91 27.87 29.10

 (2007 dollars per million Btu) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.27 1.31 1.32 1.44 1.37 1.37 1.39 1.40 1.40 1.46

Delivered Prices (2007 dollars per short ton)9

 Coke Plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94.97 104.32 104.78 114.53 115.01 115.04 115.37 116.78 115.98 115.57

 Other Industrial5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.42 51.37 51.50 54.81 55.65 55.39 54.65 57.60 57.41 57.22

 Coal to Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - - - - - - - - 16.20 18.10 17.89 18.14 19.51 20.96

 Electric Power

 (2007 dollars per short ton) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.45 36.77 36.83 37.71 38.53 38.81 38.04 40.52 40.77 40.61

 (2007 dollars per million Btu) . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.78 1.86 1.86 1.89 1.95 1.96 1.92 2.04 2.04 2.04

 Average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.60 38.56 38.67 40.03 40.17 40.13 39.50 41.55 41.33 41.30

 Exports10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.25 72.80 73.12 83.77 87.97 87.93 89.48 84.76 86.85 80.02
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 46

Table A15. Coal Supply, Disposition, and Prices (Continued)

(Million Short Tons per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Average Minemouth Price8

 (nominal dollars per short ton) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.82 27.55 27.65 31.02 34.42 34.77 36.04 43.20 44.10 42.20

 (nominal dollars per million Btu) . . . . . . . . . . . 1.27 1.36 1.37 1.52 1.72 1.74 1.80 2.17 2.22 2.11

Delivered Prices (nominal dollars per short

 Coke Plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94.97 108.06 108.73 120.62 144.26 146.08 149.04 180.75 183.55 167.56

 Other Industrial5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.42 53.21 53.44 57.73 69.81 70.33 70.59 89.16 90.86 82.96

 Coal to Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - - - - - - - - 20.31 22.98 23.11 28.07 30.87 30.39

 Electric Power

 (nominal dollars per short ton) . . . . . . . . . . . 35.45 38.09 38.22 39.72 48.33 49.28 49.14 62.72 64.53 58.88

 (nominal dollars per million Btu) . . . . . . . . . . 1.78 1.93 1.93 1.99 2.44 2.48 2.48 3.16 3.24 2.95

 Average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.60 39.94 40.13 42.16 50.39 50.95 51.03 64.31 65.41 59.88

 Exports10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.25 75.42 75.88 88.23 110.34 111.66 115.59 131.19 137.45 116.02

1

Includes anthracite, bituminous coal, subbituminous coal, and lignite.

2

Includes waste coal consumed by the electric power and industrial sectors. Waste coal supplied is counted as a supply-side item to balance the same amount of waste coal

included in the consumption data. 3

Excludes imports to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

4

Production plus waste coal supplied plus net imports.

5

Includes consumption for combined heat and power plants, except those plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. Excludes

all coal use in the coal-to-liquids process. 6

Includes all electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 7

Balancing item: the sum of production, net imports, and waste coal supplied minus total consumption.

8

Includes reported prices for both open market and captive mines.

9

Prices weighted by consumption; weighted average excludes residential and commercial prices, and export free-alongside-ship (f.a.s.) prices. 10F.a.s. price at U.S. port of exit.

- - = Not applicable.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 data based on: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report 2007, DOE/EIA-0584(2007) (Washington, DC, September 2008); EIA,

Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2007, DOE/EIA-0121(2007/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2008); and EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System run

NOSTIMLS.D041409A. Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 47

Table A16. Renewable Energy Generating Capacity and Generation

(Gigawatts, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Capacity and Generation 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Electric Power Sector1

 Net Summer Capacity

 Conventional Hydropower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.72 76.73 76.73 76.73 77.05 77.08 77.02 77.48 77.27 77.58

 Geothermal2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.36 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.60 3.01 2.66 3.03 3.30 3.00

 Municipal Waste3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.43 4.04 4.09 4.04 4.08 4.34 4.12 4.09 4.34 4.15

 Wood and Other Biomass4,5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.18 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.76 5.34 4.22 6.43 8.01 8.86

 Solar Thermal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.86 0.86 0.86

 Solar Photovoltaic6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.38 0.38 0.38

 Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.19 29.43 39.43 29.46 32.98 64.76 33.07 40.31 66.03 43.80

 Offshore Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101.46 115.54 125.58 115.57 120.69 155.75 122.32 132.78 160.40 138.83

 Generation (billion kilowatthours)

 Conventional Hydropower .............. 245.86 268.04 268.04 268.05 296.49 296.27 296.29 299.02 297.44 298.97

 Geothermal2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.84 17.78 17.78 17.78 18.63 21.86 19.11 22.01 24.18 21.80

 Biogenic Municipal Waste7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.42 19.32 19.66 19.30 19.63 21.66 19.95 19.68 21.66 20.17

 Wood and Other Biomass5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.38 12.57 12.41 28.07 104.67 92.15 117.82 134.72 125.89 140.44

 Dedicated Plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.41 10.87 10.64 12.85 17.91 35.55 28.74 45.19 56.05 62.27

 Cofiring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.97 1.70 1.76 15.22 86.75 56.60 89.08 89.52 69.84 78.17

 Solar Thermal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.60 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.88 1.88 1.88 2.02 2.02 2.02

 Solar Photovoltaic6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.01 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.94 0.94 0.94

 Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.14 80.39 111.68 80.50 91.93 200.49 92.45 116.71 204.46 129.38

 Offshore Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318.25 399.22 430.69 414.82 534.48 635.56 548.75 595.84 677.34 614.47

End-Use Generators8

 Net Summer Capacity

 Conventional Hydropower9 . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70

 Geothermal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Municipal Waste10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34

 Biomass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.64 4.71 4.71 4.65 6.23 7.22 7.28 11.63 13.30 13.23

 Solar Photovoltaic6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.43 1.81 1.86 1.73 11.44 10.78 9.72 13.24 12.30 11.78

 Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.04 0.05 0.30 0.04 0.14 1.60 0.09 0.36 1.82 0.31

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.15 7.60 7.91 7.45 18.85 20.64 18.12 26.26 28.46 26.35

 Generation (billion kilowatthours)

 Conventional Hydropower9 . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45

 Geothermal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Municipal Waste10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.01 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75

 Biomass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.13 28.54 28.57 28.20 39.01 46.78 47.17 79.17 92.46 90.81

 Solar Photovoltaic6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.68 2.91 2.99 2.78 18.88 17.73 16.02 21.87 20.26 19.49

 Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.06 0.07 0.39 0.06 0.20 2.22 0.12 0.52 2.54 0.45

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33.33 36.72 37.16 36.24 63.29 71.94 68.51 106.76 120.47 115.95
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 48

Table A16. Renewable Energy Generating Capacity and Generation (Continued)

(Gigawatts, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Capacity and Generation 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Total, All Sectors

 Net Summer Capacity

 Conventional Hydropower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77.42 77.43 77.43 77.43 77.75 77.77 77.72 78.18 77.97 78.28

 Geothermal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.36 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.60 3.01 2.66 3.03 3.30 3.00

 Municipal Waste . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.77 4.38 4.42 4.38 4.42 4.68 4.46 4.42 4.68 4.49

 Wood and Other Biomass4,5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.82 6.91 6.91 6.85 8.99 12.56 11.50 18.06 21.32 22.08

 Solar6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.00 2.41 2.46 2.33 12.46 11.80 10.74 14.48 13.54 13.02

 Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.23 29.48 39.73 29.50 33.32 66.57 33.35 40.87 68.05 44.31

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107.60 123.13 133.49 123.02 139.54 176.39 140.44 159.04 188.86 165.18

 Generation (billion kilowatthours)

 Conventional Hydropower .............. 248.31 270.49 270.49 270.50 298.94 298.72 298.75 301.47 299.89 301.42

 Geothermal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.84 17.78 17.78 17.78 18.63 21.86 19.11 22.01 24.18 21.80

 Municipal Waste . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.43 22.07 22.41 22.05 22.39 24.41 22.70 22.43 24.41 22.93

 Wood and Other Biomass5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.51 41.11 40.98 56.26 143.67 138.93 164.99 213.88 218.36 231.25

 Solar6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.29 4.04 4.12 3.91 21.26 20.11 18.39 24.83 23.22 22.45

 Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.20 80.46 112.07 80.55 92.88 203.47 93.32 117.98 207.75 130.57

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351.58 435.94 467.85 451.06 597.77 707.50 617.26 702.61 797.81 730.42

1

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 2

Includes hydrothermal resources only (hot water and steam).

3

Includes municipal waste, landfill gas, and municipal sewage sludge. Incremental growth is assumed to be for landfill gas facilities. All municipal waste is included,

although a portion of the municipal waste stream contains petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. 4

Facilities co-firing biomass and coal are classified as coal.

5

Includes projections for energy crops after 2012.

6

Does not include off-grid photovoltaics (PV). Based on annual PV shipments from 1989 through 2006, EIA estimates that as much as 210 megawatts of remote electricity

generation PV applications (i.e., off-grid power systems) were in service in 2006, plus an additional 526 megawatts in communications, transportation, and assorted other nongrid-connected, specialized applications. See Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008), Table 10.8

(annual PV shipments, 1989-2006). The approach used to develop the estimate, based on shipment data, provides an upper estimate of the size of the PV stock, including

both grid-based and off-grid PV. It will overestimate the size of the stock, because shipments include a substantial number of units that are exported, and each year some of

the PV units installed earlier will be retired from service or abandoned. 7

Includes biogenic municipal waste, landfill gas, and municipal sewage sludge. Incremental growth is assumed to be for landfill gas facilities. Only biogenic municipal waste

is included. The Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2007 approximately 6 billion kilowatthours of electricity were generated from a municipal waste stream

containing petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. See Energy Information Administration, Methodology for Allocating Municipal Solid Waste to Biogenic

and Non-Biogenic Energy (Washington, DC, May 2007). 8

Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors; and small on-site generating systems in the residential,

commercial, and industrial sectors used primarily for own-use generation, but which may also sell some power to the grid. 9

Represents own-use industrial hydroelectric power.

10Includes municipal waste, landfill gas, and municipal sewage sludge. All municipal waste is included, although a portion of the municipal waste stream contains petroleumderived plastics and other non-renewable sources.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 capacity: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Form EIA-860, "Annual Electric Generator Report" (preliminary). 2007 generation: EIA, Annual Energy

Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A,

STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 49

Table A17. Renewable Energy, Consumption by Sector and Source1

(Quadrillion Btu per Year)

Sector and Source 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Marketed Renewable Energy2

 Residential (wood) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.50 0.50

 Commercial (biomass) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12

 Industrial3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.04 2.31 2.33 2.23 2.66 2.90 2.87 3.60 3.88 3.62

 Conventional Hydroelectric . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

 Municipal Waste4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.12 0.17 0.17 0.12 0.17 0.17 0.12

 Biomass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.46 1.35 1.37 1.34 1.44 1.48 1.49 1.72 1.74 1.81

 Biofuels Heat and Coproducts . . . . . . . . . 0.40 0.76 0.76 0.75 1.02 1.23 1.23 1.69 1.94 1.66

 Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.64 1.19 1.19 1.23 1.80 2.01 2.06 2.96 3.17 3.43

 Ethanol used in E855 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.49 0.56 1.06 1.15 1.44

 Ethanol used in Gasoline Blending . . . . . . 0.58 1.09 1.09 1.08 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.09 1.07 1.04

 Biodiesel used in Distillate Blending . . . . . 0.06 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.23 0.23 0.20 0.24 0.26 0.25

 Liquids from Biomass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.14 0.15 0.52 0.65 0.65

 Green Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.06

 Electric Power6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.45 4.24 4.56 4.42 5.65 6.69 5.79 6.28 7.13 6.43

 Conventional Hydroelectric . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.44 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.93 2.92 2.92 2.95 2.93 2.95

 Geothermal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.31 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.41 0.51 0.43 0.52 0.58 0.51

 Biogenic Municipal Waste7 . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.17 0.23 0.24 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.24

 Biomass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.21 0.18 0.17 0.35 1.14 0.97 1.25 1.39 1.29 1.41

 Dedicated Plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.36 0.28 0.44 0.56 0.61

 Cofiring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.21 0.98 0.62 0.98 0.95 0.73 0.80

 Solar Thermal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

 Solar Photovoltaic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.32 0.80 1.11 0.80 0.92 1.99 0.92 1.16 2.03 1.29

Total Marketed Renewable Energy . . . . . . . 6.69 8.29 8.62 8.43 10.72 12.21 11.32 13.47 14.80 14.10

Sources of Ethanol

 From Corn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.55 1.11 1.10 1.08 1.32 1.35 1.42 1.57 1.50 1.41

 From Cellulose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.19 0.18 0.38 0.58 0.43

 Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.00 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.19 0.15 0.63

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.58 1.09 1.09 1.08 1.45 1.59 1.66 2.15 2.22 2.47
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 50

Table A17. Renewable Energy, Consumption by Sector and Source1 (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year)

Sector and Source 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Nonmarketed Renewable Energy8

 Selected Consumption

 Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.08

 Solar Hot Water Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Geothermal Heat Pumps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02

 Solar Photovoltaic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.05

 Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

 Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04

 Solar Thermal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

 Solar Photovoltaic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1

Actual heat rates used to determine fuel consumption for all renewable fuels except hydropower, solar, and wind. Consumption at hydroelectric, solar, and wind facilities

determined by using the fossil fuel equivalent of 10,022 Btu per kilowatthour. 2

Includes nonelectric renewable energy groups for which the energy source is bought and sold in the marketplace, although all transactions may not necessarily be

marketed, and marketed renewable energy inputs for electricity entering the marketplace on the electric power grid. Excludes electricity imports; see Table A2. 3

Includes all electricity production by industrial and other combined heat and power for the grid and for own use.

4

Includes municipal waste, landfill gas, and municipal sewage sludge. All municipal waste is included, although a portion of the municipal waste stream contains petroleumderived plastics and other non-renewable sources. 5

Excludes motor gasoline component of E85.

6

Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 

Includes small power producers and exempt wholesale generators. 7

Includes biogenic municipal waste, landfill gas, and municipal sewage sludge. Incremental growth is assumed to be for landfill gas facilities. Only biogenic municipal waste

is included. The Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2007 approximately 0.3 quadrillion Btus were consumed from a municipal waste stream containing

petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. See Energy Information Administration, Methodology for Allocating Municipal Solid Waste to Biogenic and NonBiogenic Energy (Washington, DC, May 2007). 8

Includes selected renewable energy consumption data for which the energy is not bought or sold, either directly or indirectly as an input to marketed energy. The Energy

Information Administration does not estimate or project total consumption of nonmarketed renewable energy.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 ethanol: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 2007 electric power

sector: EIA, Form EIA-860, "Annual Electric Generator Report” (preliminary). Other 2007 values: EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Projections: EIA,

AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 51

Table A18. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source

(Million Metric Tons, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Source 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Residential

 Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 94 93 89 80 78 80 75 74 75

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 271 268 261 267 265 270 269 266 269

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

 Electricity1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 904 889 879 886 904 882 899 987 969 987

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1250 1255 1242 1237 1251 1226 1250 1332 1310 1332

Commercial

 Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 45 45 41 42 41 42 43 42 42

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 173 173 167 177 176 177 190 187 188

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

 Electricity1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 872 885 879 878 976 968 979 1087 1087 1096

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1087 1110 1103 1092 1200 1192 1205 1326 1322 1332

Industrial2

 Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 406 384 385 377 367 368 369 360 356 375

 Natural Gas3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405 374 383 414 401 400 421 414 412 440

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 146 148 174 165 179 183 167 187 215

 Electricity1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 653 580 580 617 611 610 612 578 575 638

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1640 1483 1496 1582 1544 1557 1585 1519 1530 1667

Transportation

 Petroleum4 ............................ 1974 1849 1865 1851 1891 1887 1896 2016 1995 2032

 Natural Gas5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 35 35 36 39 36 40 42 42 43

 Electricity1 ............................ 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 8 8 9

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2014 1889 1905 1891 1935 1929 1942 2066 2045 2084

Electric Power6

 Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 47 47 38 41 40 40 42 41 41

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376 334 322 341 330 285 357 403 365 378

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1980 1964 1962 1995 2114 2129 2089 2203 2222 2299

 Other7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2433 2357 2342 2385 2496 2466 2497 2660 2639 2729

Total by Fuel

 Petroleum3 ............................ 2580 2419 2435 2396 2420 2415 2427 2536 2509 2564

 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1237 1189 1182 1218 1214 1163 1265 1319 1272 1318

 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2162 2117 2117 2176 2286 2316 2278 2377 2415 2521

 Other7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5991 5737 5746 5801 5931 5905 5982 6244 6207 6414

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

 (tons per person) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.8 18.4 18.5 18.6 17.3 17.2 17.5 16.7 16.6 17.1

1

Emissions from the electric power sector are distributed to the end-use sectors.

2

Fuel consumption includes energy for combined heat and power plants, except those plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 3

Includes lease and plant fuel.

4

This includes carbon dioxide from international bunker fuels, both civilian and military, which are excluded from the accounting of carbon dioxide emissions under the United

Nations convention. From 1990 through 2007, international bunker fuels accounted for 84 to 131 million metric tons annually. 5

Includes pipeline fuel natural gas and compressed natural gas used as vehicle fuel.

6

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 7

Includes emissions from geothermal power and nonbiogenic emissions from municipal waste.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2006 and 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data

reports.

Sources: 2007 emissions and emission factors: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2007, DOE/EIA-0573(2007)

(Washington, DC, December 2008). Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and

AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 52

Table A19. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by End Use

(Million Metric Tons)

Sector and Source 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Residential

 Space Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293.21 310.20 305.35 291.82 291.36 286.33 291.30 288.15 282.85 286.17

 Space Cooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167.89 153.67 150.17 158.68 168.11 162.08 169.72 187.27 181.01 190.05

 Water Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166.05 164.05 160.98 161.74 169.24 166.33 166.79 162.16 162.55 165.41

 Refrigeration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.53 68.77 68.35 68.88 68.36 67.54 67.93 72.82 72.73 73.42

 Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33.58 33.53 33.42 34.00 36.18 35.91 37.37 38.50 38.44 40.30

 Clothes Dryers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.78 53.85 53.41 53.38 54.49 53.41 53.99 57.80 56.80 58.11

 Freezers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.54 14.61 14.52 14.64 14.75 14.57 14.66 15.53 15.51 15.66

 Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139.58 133.05 131.99 132.07 98.28 96.40 97.54 91.08 89.82 90.61

 Clothes Washers1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.65 6.07 6.04 5.99 4.84 4.79 4.74 4.88 4.88 4.93

 Dishwashers1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.12 17.28 17.18 17.32 17.92 17.70 17.81 19.97 19.93 20.07

 Color Televisions and Set-Top Boxes . . . . . . . 68.63 74.82 74.24 74.30 77.46 75.96 77.16 96.42 95.01 97.19

 Personal Computers and Related Equipment 29.18 33.36 33.21 33.47 34.81 34.39 34.62 39.16 39.07 39.39

 Furnace Fans and Boiler Circulation Pumps . . 24.52 26.13 25.97 24.21 27.45 27.18 26.76 28.59 28.60 28.42

 Other Uses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165.37 165.79 166.90 166.42 188.00 183.76 189.62 229.75 222.39 222.05

 Discrepancy2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -6.67 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Total Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1249.97 1255.21 1241.71 1236.92 1251.26 1226.36 1250.00 1332.10 1309.59 1331.78

Commercial

 Space Heating3 ........................ 121.27 129.50 128.86 122.71 124.00 122.56 125.18 123.80 121.45 123.26

 Space Cooling3 ........................ 106.18 100.66 99.88 102.62 105.23 104.28 106.83 112.64 112.43 115.01

 Water Heating3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.05 42.96 42.84 42.19 45.25 45.24 45.75 48.12 48.06 47.99

 Ventilation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93.21 98.65 98.05 97.80 111.48 112.03 113.27 120.47 122.06 123.43

 Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.19 13.88 13.86 13.67 14.57 14.61 14.70 15.82 15.85 15.65

 Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201.87 196.38 194.72 195.55 197.94 197.05 202.04 206.53 207.45 210.90

 Refrigeration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.34 72.95 72.56 73.02 66.22 65.73 66.80 68.91 69.04 69.59

 Office Equipment (PC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.95 46.78 46.51 46.77 51.42 50.90 51.55 58.27 58.27 58.63

 Office Equipment (non-PC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.97 47.47 47.20 47.47 66.51 65.83 66.68 74.65 74.62 75.05

 Other Uses4 ........................... 346.47 360.45 358.87 350.49 417.70 413.59 411.93 496.68 492.88 492.05

 Total Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1087.50 1109.68 1103.33 1092.29 1200.33 1191.82 1204.72 1325.89 1322.11 1331.56

Industrial

 Manufacturing

 Refining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251.30 256.89 255.78 258.31 269.50 280.58 291.74 293.82 307.51 327.84

 Food Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.75 99.74 100.99 103.37 109.24 107.04 107.57 120.53 118.65 119.68

 Paper Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93.84 85.19 85.66 87.16 83.04 83.86 85.70 84.09 84.70 88.86

 Bulk Chemicals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313.83 257.74 262.42 279.94 235.85 238.52 247.77 191.29 195.73 221.91

 Glass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.19 16.37 16.50 16.88 21.45 21.75 21.25 21.97 21.96 21.37

 Cement Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.74 30.87 31.83 32.97 40.80 41.42 40.16 41.42 40.77 40.58

 Iron and Steel ........................ 137.35 108.88 113.01 117.98 110.34 113.15 113.43 85.65 86.82 116.17

 Aluminum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44.93 42.26 42.20 42.50 36.86 37.54 36.66 29.60 29.90 32.23

 Fabricated Metal Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.98 34.19 34.52 36.15 36.90 37.04 36.82 28.43 28.44 36.51

 Machinery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.48 17.41 17.40 18.40 21.55 22.62 20.66 14.76 14.43 21.97

 Computers and Electronics . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.63 21.44 21.95 24.66 30.34 30.97 32.37 39.53 36.39 53.58

 Transportation Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.28 41.17 41.45 39.29 40.00 40.26 40.09 40.29 39.33 41.69

 Electrical Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.38 12.63 12.85 13.91 17.22 17.50 16.85 18.81 17.91 22.37

 Wood Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.79 17.48 17.74 17.80 21.96 22.10 20.10 21.98 21.15 19.59

 Plastics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.96 37.26 37.45 37.60 38.18 37.77 38.84 37.39 38.52 43.38

 Balance of Manufacturing ............... 171.10 147.34 148.41 150.34 153.71 152.42 154.38 153.26 154.42 160.37

 Total Manufacturing ..................1382.52 1226.88 1240.18 1277.28 1266.94 1284.54 1304.41 1222.82 1236.62 1368.09

 Nonmanufacturing

 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96.45 81.78 83.11 86.33 85.00 84.70 85.70 90.02 89.21 88.95

 Mining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.82 53.43 54.39 59.38 75.75 75.73 72.43 76.29 75.39 76.07

 Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.58 75.25 75.35 77.18 74.65 73.79 76.44 77.08 76.92 79.62

 Total Nonmanufacturing .............. 254.84 210.46 212.86 222.89 235.41 234.23 234.56 243.39 241.52 244.63

 Discrepancy2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.40 45.64 43.08 81.53 41.92 38.20 46.14 53.17 52.07 54.56

 Total Industrial ......................1639.76 1482.98 1496.11 1581.70 1544.27 1556.97 1585.11 1519.38 1530.21 1667.28
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 53

Table A19. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by End Use (Continued)

(Million Metric Tons)

Sector and Source 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Transportation

 Light-Duty Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1137.85 1086.53 1090.07 1076.13 1018.16 1011.80 1007.98 1031.27 1021.31 1002.45

 Commercial Light Trucks5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.08 36.17 36.63 37.81 39.70 40.06 39.85 41.72 41.28 44.04

 Bus Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.57 19.94 19.98 19.11 18.87 18.91 19.08 20.15 20.08 20.06

 Freight Trucks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371.85 333.05 339.55 343.12 399.86 401.21 409.93 451.72 446.43 488.21

 Rail, Passenger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.82 5.81 5.84 5.84 6.59 6.54 6.60 7.29 7.26 7.30

 Rail, Freight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.01 40.34 40.78 40.74 45.46 45.88 46.39 48.63 48.83 52.19

 Shipping, Domestic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.11 23.62 23.85 23.52 26.23 25.98 27.51 29.29 29.07 30.69

 Shipping, International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.31 65.49 65.53 62.74 70.15 70.17 70.25 71.10 71.05 71.23

 Recreational Boats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.48 17.09 17.16 16.86 17.99 17.97 17.63 18.92 18.84 18.55

 Air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192.03 167.48 171.99 173.66 199.72 200.95 203.42 248.41 244.02 250.83

 Military Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50.27 55.44 55.83 52.93 52.59 52.65 52.83 55.13 55.17 55.40

 Lubricants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.19 5.12 5.12 5.17 5.42 5.42 5.41 5.61 5.59 5.67

 Pipeline Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04

 Discrepancy2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.99 32.72 32.43 32.85 34.56 31.87 35.50 36.95 36.28 37.16

 Total Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2013.59 1888.84 1904.79 1890.52 1935.32 1929.45 1942.43 2066.22 2045.24 2083.81

1

Does not include water heating portion of load.

2

Represents differences between total emissions by end-use and total emissions by fuel as reported in Table A18. Emissions by fuel may reflect benchmarking and other

modeling adjustments to energy use and the associated emissions that are not assigned to specific end uses. 3

Includes emissions related to fuel consumption for district services.

4

Includes miscellaneous uses, such as service station equipment, automated teller machines, telecommunications equipment, medical equipment, pumps, emergency

generators, combined heat and power in commercial buildings, manufacturing performed in commercial buildings, and cooking (distillate), plus emissions from residual fuel oil,

liquefied petroleum gases, coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene. 5

Commercial trucks 8,500 to 10,000 pounds.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 emissions and emission factors: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2007, DOE/EIA-0573(2007)

(Washington, DC, December 2008). Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and

AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 54

Table A20. Macroeconomic Indicators

(Billion 2000 Chain-Weighted Dollars, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Indicators 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Real Gross Domestic Product ............. 11524 11373 11599 11779 15315 15398 15524 20193 19875 20114

Components of Real Gross Domestic

Product

 Real Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8253 8289 8395 8435 10813 10817 10876 14255 14069 13439

 Real Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1810 1366 1478 1581 2578 2591 2565 3797 3590 3756

 Real Government Spending .............. 2012 2061 2117 2065 2225 2229 2194 2526 2473 2427

 Real Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1426 1355 1367 1585 2790 2862 3061 4894 4865 5820

 Real Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1972 1731 1794 1899 2936 2942 3007 4844 4719 4717

Energy Intensity

(thousand Btu per 2000 dollar of GDP)

 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.42 6.23 6.14 6.09 4.83 4.83 4.86 3.92 3.97 4.04

 Total Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.84 8.67 8.54 8.48 6.80 6.80 6.79 5.50 5.58 5.65

Price Indices

 GDP Chain-Type Price Index (2000=1.000) . . 1.198 1.241 1.243 1.262 1.503 1.521 1.548 1.855 1.896 1.737

 Consumer Price Index (1982-4=1)

 All-Urban . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.07 2.14 2.14 2.20 2.75 2.79 2.83 3.50 3.58 3.31

 Energy Commodities and Services . . . . . . . . 2.08 1.76 1.77 2.18 3.06 3.10 3.16 4.06 4.11 3.87

 Wholesale Price Index (1982=1.00)

 All Commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.73 1.64 1.65 1.80 2.09 2.12 2.19 2.42 2.47 2.36

 Fuel and Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.77 1.49 1.49 1.91 2.64 2.66 2.74 3.57 3.62 3.45

 Metals and Metal Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.93 1.59 1.60 1.82 2.05 2.10 2.21 2.11 2.18 2.22

Interest Rates (percent, nominal)

 Federal Funds Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.02 0.27 0.32 1.30 4.97 5.40 5.20 5.60 5.00 4.04

 10-Year Treasury Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.63 2.78 3.01 3.67 5.83 6.03 5.86 6.14 5.76 4.67

 AA Utility Bond Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.94 5.77 6.09 6.39 7.81 7.95 7.49 8.83 8.04 5.79

Value of Shipments (billion 2000 dollars)

 Total Industrial ......................... 5750 4862 4954 5240 6581 6652 6753 7519 7391 8451

 Non-manufacturing .................... 1490 1179 1197 1277 1635 1633 1603 1784 1760 1780

 Manufacturing ........................ 4261 3683 3757 3963 4946 5019 5150 5735 5631 6671

 Energy-Intensive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1239 1173 1194 1238 1354 1354 1374 1455 1445 1525

 Non-Energy Intensive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3022 2510 2563 2725 3592 3666 3776 4279 4186 5145

Population and Employment (millions)

 Population with Armed Forces Overseas .... 302.4 311.4 311.4 311.4 342.6 342.6 342.6 374.7 374.7 375.1

 Population (aged 16 and over) ............ 237.2 245.2 245.2 245.2 270.3 270.3 270.4 297.2 297.2 297.6

 Population, over age 65 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 40.4 40.4 40.4 55.0 55.0 55.0 72.3 72.3 72.3

 Employment, Nonfarm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137.2 130.8 132.7 135.6 150.5 150.9 152.6 167.3 165.3 168.3

 Employment, Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9 11.2 11.5 12.2 11.8 12.0 12.3 10.2 10.1 11.7

Key Labor Indicators

 Labor Force (millions) ................... 153.1 153.6 154.0 155.9 166.3 166.4 168.4 176.0 175.6 181.5

 Non-farm Labor Productivity (1992=1.00) . . . . 1.37 1.46 1.46 1.45 1.74 1.75 1.74 2.19 2.17 2.14

 Unemployment Rate (percent) . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.63 10.19 9.35 8.26 5.74 5.51 5.53 4.92 5.54 4.78

Key Indicators for Energy Demand

 Real Disposable Personal Income ......... 8644 8868 9103 9017 11895 11903 12035 16310 16014 15450

 Housing Starts (millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.44 1.04 1.08 1.18 1.98 1.99 1.77 1.81 1.77 1.74

 Commercial Floorspace (billion square feet) . . 77.3 81.0 81.1 81.2 91.6 91.5 92.3 104.4 103.9 103.3

 Unit Sales of Light-Duty Vehicles (millions) . . . 16.09 14.54 13.08 14.18 18.04 18.09 17.41 20.20 19.69 20.99

GDP = Gross domestic product.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Sources: 2007: IHS Global Insight Industry and Employment models, November 2008. Projections: Energy Information Administration, AEO2009 National Energy

Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A.
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 55

Table A21. International Liquids Supply and Disposition Summary

(Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply and Disposition 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Crude Oil Prices (2007 dollars per barrel)1

 Imported Low Sulfur Light Crude Oil Price . . . 72.33 52.13 52.16 80.16 116.56 116.79 115.45 130.50 130.92 130.43

 Imported Crude Oil Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.83 49.05 48.99 77.56 114.35 114.50 112.05 124.45 124.36 124.60

Crude Oil Prices (nominal dollars per barrel)1

 Imported Low Sulfur Light Crude Oil Price . . . 72.33 54.00 54.13 84.42 146.20 148.30 149.14 202.00 207.19 189.10

 Imported Crude Oil Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.83 50.81 50.84 81.69 143.44 145.39 144.74 192.63 196.81 180.66

Conventional Production (Conventional)2

 OPEC3

 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.97 22.94 23.11 22.77 25.96 25.93 25.22 28.01 27.85 28.34

 North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.02 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.61 4.61 4.61 5.19 5.19 5.19

 West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.12 4.81 4.81 4.81 5.23 5.23 5.23 5.92 5.92 5.92

 South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.58 2.26 2.26 2.26 2.42 2.42 2.42 2.73 2.73 2.73

 Total OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33.68 34.26 34.43 34.09 38.22 38.19 37.48 41.85 41.69 42.18

 Non-OPEC

 OECD

 United States (50 states) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.20 8.59 8.59 8.81 8.95 8.86 9.71 10.20 10.06 10.44

 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.05 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.02 1.02 1.02

 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.50 2.87 2.87 2.87 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.45 2.45 2.45

 OECD Europe4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.23 4.27 4.27 4.27 3.18 3.18 3.18 2.94 2.94 2.94

 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.18

 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.64 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.77 0.77

 Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.75 18.58 18.59 18.80 16.56 16.47 17.32 17.57 17.43 17.81

 Non-OECD

 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.88 9.50 9.50 9.50 10.24 10.24 10.24 10.50 10.50 10.50

 Other Europe and Eurasia5 . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.88 3.58 3.58 3.58 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.86 4.86 4.86

 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.90 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.19 3.19 3.19

 Other Asia6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.75 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.68 3.68 3.68

 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.52 1.42 1.42 1.42 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.36 1.36 1.36

 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.41 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.98 2.98 2.98

 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.88 2.48 2.48 2.48 3.45 3.45 3.45 4.19 4.19 4.19

 Other Central and South America . . . . . . . 1.79 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.56 1.56 1.56 2.05 2.05 2.05

 Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.01 28.96 28.96 28.96 31.25 31.25 31.25 32.81 32.81 32.81

Total Conventional Production . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.44 81.80 81.97 81.85 86.03 85.92 86.04 92.23 91.94 92.80

Unconventional Production7

 United States (50 states) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.46 0.91 0.91 0.91 1.30 1.51 1.55 2.18 2.43 2.31

 Other North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.38 1.92 1.92 1.92 3.34 3.34 3.34 4.31 4.31 4.31

 OECD Europe3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.27 0.27 0.27

 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.22 0.22 0.22

 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.23 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.72 0.72 0.72

 Central and South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.02 1.15 1.15 1.15 2.04 2.04 2.04 3.16 3.16 3.16

 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.30 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.78 0.78 0.78 1.63 1.63 1.63

 Total Unconventional Production . . . . . . . 3.58 4.85 4.85 4.85 8.31 8.52 8.56 12.48 12.73 12.61

Total Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85.02 86.65 86.82 86.71 94.34 94.44 94.60 104.71 104.67 105.41
Energy Information Administration / An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case 56

Table A21. International Liquids Supply and Disposition Summary (Continued)

(Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply and Disposition 2007

Projections

2010 2020 2030

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

No

Stimulus

Updated

AEO2009

Reference

(April 2009)

Published

AEO2009

Reference

(March 2009)

Consumption8

 OECD

 United States (50 states) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.65 19.64 19.81 19.69 19.95 20.05 20.21 21.02 20.92 21.67

 United States Territories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.39 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.62 0.62 0.62

 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.41 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.39 2.39 2.39

 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.10 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.67 2.67 2.67

 OECD Europe3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.36 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.24 14.24 14.24 14.27 14.27 14.27

 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.02 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.02 4.02 4.02

 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.34 2.31 2.31 2.31 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.81 2.81 2.81

 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.08 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.20 1.20 1.20

 Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49.35 47.19 47.36 47.24 47.24 47.33 47.50 48.99 48.90 49.64

 Non-OECD

 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.88 2.97 2.97 2.97 3.18 3.18 3.18 3.35 3.35 3.35

 Other Europe and Eurasia5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.24 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.96 2.96 2.96

 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.63 8.50 8.50 8.50 11.29 11.29 11.29 15.08 15.08 15.08

 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.46 2.60 2.60 2.60 3.51 3.51 3.51 4.52 4.52 4.52

 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.28 6.39 6.39 6.39 7.75 7.75 7.75 9.03 9.03 9.03

 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.42 7.02 7.02 7.02 8.26 8.26 8.26 9.45 9.45 9.45

 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.22 3.49 3.49 3.49 3.90 3.90 3.90 4.02 4.02 4.02

 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.37 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.84 2.84 2.84 3.32 3.32 3.32

 Other Central and South America . . . . . . . . 3.35 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.73 3.73 3.73 4.04 4.04 4.04

 Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.85 39.46 39.46 39.46 47.10 47.10 47.10 55.77 55.77 55.77

Total Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86.20 86.66 86.82 86.70 94.34 94.44 94.60 104.76 104.66 105.41

OPEC Production9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34.38 34.92 35.08 34.75 39.26 39.23 38.51 43.31 43.15 43.63

Non-OPEC Production9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50.64 51.74 51.74 51.96 55.09 55.21 56.09 61.41 61.52 61.78

Net Eurasia Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.52 10.24 10.24 10.24 12.37 12.37 12.37 13.25 13.25 13.25

OPEC Market Share (percent) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.4 40.3 40.4 40.1 41.6 41.5 40.7 41.4 41.2 41.4

1

Weighted average price delivered to U.S. refiners.

2

Includes production of crude oil (including lease condensate), natural gas plant liquids, other hydrogen and hydrocarbons for refinery feedstocks, alcohol and other sources,

and refinery gains. 3

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and

Venezuela. 4

OECD Europe = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary,

Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. 5

Other Europe and Eurasia = Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia,

Lithuania, Macedonia, Malta, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. 6

Other Asia = Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia (Kampuchea), Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Kiribati, Laos, Malaysia, Macau,

Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nauru, Nepal, New Caledonia, Niue, North Korea, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri

Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Tonga, Vanuatu, and Vietnam. 7

Includes liquids produced from energy crops, natural gas, coal, extra-heavy oil, oil sands, and shale. Includes both OPEC and non-OPEC producers in the regional

breakdown. 8

Includes both OPEC and non-OPEC consumers in the regional breakdown.

9

Includes both conventional and unconventional liquids production.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2007 low sulfur light crude oil price: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Form EIA-856, “Monthly Foreign Crude Oil Acquisition Report.” 2007 imported

crude oil price: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 2007 quantities and projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy

Modeling System runs NOSTIMLS.D041409A, STIMULUS.D041409A, and AEO2009.D120908A, and EIA, Generate World Oil Balance Model.