December 21, 2015

MEMORANDUM FOR: JOHN CONTI

ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR FOR ENERGY ANALYSIS

PAUL HOLTBERG

TEAM LEADER

ANALYSIS INTEGRATION TEAM

JIM TURNURE

DIRECTOR

OFFICE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND EFFICIENCY 

ANALYSIS

FROM: TRANSPORTATION CONSUMPTION AND EFFICIENCY 

ANALYSIS TEAM

SUBJECT: First AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Summary 

(presented on 12-15-2015)

Attendees: David Daniels (EIA)

Alicia Birky (Energetics)

Elke Hodson (DOE)

Ken Katz (DOT)

Marc Goodman (New West Technologies)

Michael Laughlin (Energetics)

Sarah Garman (DOE)

Siddiq Khan (ACEEE)

Tom White (DOE)

Attending by Phone: Alex Taylor (EPA)

Anant Vyas (ANL)

Bryan Just (API)

Christopher Grillo (IHS)

Ed Coe (EPA)

Ed Nam (EPA)

Erik Herzog (EPA)

Frances Wood (On Location)

Jesse Prentice-Dunn (Sierra Club)

Jim Kliesch (Honda)

Joanne Shore (AFPM)

John Davies (DOT)

John VanSchalkwyk (DOT/Volpe)

Julie Becker (Auto Alliance)
Luke Tonachel (NRDC)

Michael Shelby (EPA)

Ryan Keefe (DOT/Volpe)

Yan Zhou (ANL)

Presenters: John Maples

Mark Schipper 

Melissa Lynes 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

The working group presentation provided a discussion of the projects underway and anticipated for 

AEO2016. An overview of the projects discussed is included in the presentation materials provided 

as a separate attachment.

Specific discussion/questions:

1. Is the new base year for the light duty vehicle (LDV) model going to be 2013?

a. Yes. Right now the base year is 2010 and the model is providing projections in subsequent 

years. This will be updated to a base year of 2013 for AEO2016.

2. Will the Clean Power Plan (CPP) impact CO2 coefficients used to calculate EV emissions in the 

transportation module?

a. The Clean Power Plan will be indirectly taken into account through carbon coefficients from 

the electricity module for electricity use of plug in EVs.

3. What is the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) data update?

a. The NHSTA data are used to update new light-duty vehicle attribute data in the model, which 

updates the base year vehicle used for projecting new vehicle fuel economy and sales. 

NHTSA data are available for all vehicle nameplates through model year 2013. NHTSA 

added that a partial data set is available for model year 2014.

4. What are the differences in the NHTSA and EIA runs for CAFE standards?

a. Mid-year and end-of-year information is provided in the NHTSA data set. Our model should 

only be pulling the end-of-year data but we believe it is pulling both sets of data. We are 

working to correct the program so it only pulls the end-of-year data. We will likely give an 

update to our progress at the next AEO2016 Transportation Working Group meeting.

5. Based on the increased number of vehicle classes regulated for Phase 2 HDV, will there be a 

change in the level of reporting in the AEO output tables?

a. As of right now there will not be any change in the level of reporting.

6. What are the assumptions and updates for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates?

a. We will be updating the model to reflect the latest ZEV requirements; it has not been updated 

since 2010. The update will impact interactions between the consumer choice model that 

estimates sales of covered vehicles and sales requirements mandated by law. EIA expects to 

reach out to stakeholders on ZEV issues.
7. What other side cases will there be other than Phase 2, for example will there be a low VMT 

case?

a. As of right now the side cases have not been finalized.