US CRUDE & PRODUCTS EXPORTS 

4 June 2018
2

PERMIAN BALANCES 

• Frantic pace of Permian production growth has ballooned price differentials as 

producers scramble for rail / truck capacity to evacuate the basin
3

US EXPORTS AND EXPORT REQUIREMENT
4

MIDLAND DIFFERENTIAL HEADING BACK OUT AFTER 

RECOVERING A BIT

CUSHING - MIDLAND

PRICE DIFFERENTIAL USD/BBL

Source: Bloomberg, Trafigura Research 

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4
5

...WHILE WTI-BRENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN

WTI - BRENT

PRICE DIFFERENTIAL USD/BBL

Source: Bloomberg, Trafigura Research 

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4
6

US IS NOW EXPORTING NEARLY 2 MMBPD FROM VARIOUS 

PORTS
7

US EXPORTS AND EXPORT REQUIREMENT

• Exports rising strongly since mid-2017, absorbing significant portion of the incremental light US crude 

production over that period 

• We expect that 1.8- 2.0 million bpd is the new US baseline for exports which will be tested to the upside as US 

production continues to boom 
8

US CRUDE AND CONDENSATE EXPORTS ARE INCREASING TO 

ALL REGIONS
9

WTI EXPORTS ARE LIGHTENING THE GLOBAL SLATE
10

US DISTILLATE FUEL INVENTORIES

• Distillate stocks in the US have breached the low-point of the five-year average – partially a 

demand phenomenon but also a function of low yield due to US refineries maximizing runs of 

high-naphtha light shale crude 
11

 Total US petroleum exports continued to surge 

through end-2017, setting a new record high in aggregate and for each of the key individual 

products (crude oil, LPG, gasoline, distillate fuel, jet 

fuel)

 The majority of these steams are moving to Latin 

America (especially Mexico and Brazil), meeting 

heightened import requirements as local refinery 

production has collapsed due to operational, 

financial, and strategic decisions in recent years

 Europe (mainly the Mediterranean) is a large and 

growing destination for distillates, but competition 

from is intense the Arab Gulf, Russia, and local 

refining in that market

 For specific products (LPG / Naphtha), arbitrage to 

Asia is typically economic and products largely clear 

into India, South Korea and Japan 

TOTAL PETROLEUM EXPORT VOLUMES

TOTAL US In Thousand Barrels per Day

Source: EIA, Trafigura Research

1,615

2,049 2,199

2,136

3,121

3,564

4,056

5,187

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Crude Oil LPG Naphtha Jet Fuel

Gasoline Distillate Fuel Fuel Oil

UNITED STATES: PETROLEUM PRODUCT EXPORTS
12

LPG FLOWS TO KEY MARKETS 

CALENDAR 2010

US LPG Exports - 2010 (KBPD)

Mexico 38

Canada 15

Ecuador 15

Dominican Republic 14

Brazil 13

Honduras 9

Japan 8

China 2

Korea 1

Netherlands 1

UK 1

Remarks: Mexico is the largest export market with small but ratable 

volumes moving to other Americas markets; occasional cargos to 

markets in Northwest Europe and North Asia 

Total volume: 132 kbpd
13

LPG FLOWS TO KEY MARKETS

CALENDAR 2017

US LPG Exports - 2017 (KBPD)

Japan 211

China 145

Mexico 131

Korea 94

Canada 77

India 59

Singapore 58

Brazil 56

UK 38

Netherlands 36

Dominican Republic 33

Norway 28

Indonesia 20

Australia 18

Ecuador 15

Guatemala 12

Honduras 12

Morocco 9

Panama 9

Remarks: The United States has become one of the single largest providers 

of LPG to Japan, Korea and China, displacing other regions; starting in 

2016, the United States displaced most others supplies to India and 

Indonesia; it is likely that a good portion of this relates to OPEC cuts

Total volume: 1,207 kbpd
14

DISTILLATE FLOWS TO KEY MARKETS

CALENDAR 2010

Total volume: 654 kbpd

US Distillate Exports - 2010 (KBPD)

Netherlands 115

Mexico 94

Colombia 55

Brazil 46

Panama 38

Chile 38

Gibraltar 26

Ecuador 26

Peru 22

Costa Rica 17

Guatemala 17

Germany 16

France 16

Argentina 13

Bahamas 13

Canada 12

Honduras 9

Dominican Republic 6

Singapore 6

Belgium 5

UK 5
15

DISTILLATE FLOWS TO KEY MARKETS

CALENDAR 2017

Total volume: 1,372 kbpd

US Distillate Exports - 2017 (KBPD)

Mexico 246

Brazil 208

Chile 99

Netherlands 86

Peru 72

France 57

Guatemala 56

Panama 46

Argentina 39

UK 38

Ecuador 36

Singapore 35

Costa Rica 26

Gibraltar 26

Canada 21

Colombia 19

Bahamas 14

Honduras 14

Dominican Republic 13

Belgium 11

Germany 5

Most U.S. export growth originates from the increasing shortfall in Latin 

America and, seasonally, Europe due to refinery shutdowns; Northwest 

Europe competes for markets in Latin America
16

NAPHTHA FLOWS TO KEY MARKETS 

CALENDAR 2013

Total volume: 111 kbpd

US Naphtha Exports - 2013 (KBPD)

Colombia 23

Mexico 15

Venezuela 15

China 12

Japan 9

Canada 5

Netherlands 5

Brazil 5

Korea 4

Singapore 1

N.B. Naphtha export data begins in 2013
17

NAPHTHA FLOWS TO KEY MARKETS

CALENDAR 2017

Total volume: 229 kbpd

US Naphtha Exports - 2017 (KBPD)

Canada 67

Colombia 41

Venezuela 30

Netherlands 26

Brazil 15

Mexico 14

China 12

Japan 9

Korea 6

Chile 4

Singapore 4

Increasingly decreased flow of European naphtha into the Americas 

due to blending and movements into West Africa; Arab Gulf export 

flows into Europe also diminished but are moving to Asia
18

Trafigura Group PTE Ltd 

10 Collyer Quay #29-00 

Ocean Financial Centre 

Singapore 049315

THANK YOU

Trafigura PTE Ltd 

Branch Office 

Geneva 1, rue de 

Jargonnant 1207 

Geneva Switzerland

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