U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2021 Working Group

Preliminary results for oil, natural gas, & liquid fuels

for

Oil and Gas Supply, Natural Gas Markets, & Liquid Fuels Markets Working Group

September 23, 2020 | Washington, DC

By

Exploration & Production, Natural Gas Markets, and Liquid Fuels Markets Teams 

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis 
AEO2021 and COVID-19

• AEO2021 will reflect updated macroeconomic projections that underlie energy 

consumption, production, and trade

• STEO forecast incorporates short-term impacts of COVID-19 on consumption and 

production of petroleum, natural gas, and biofuels

• EIA released a Trends and Expectations Report which describes the impact of the 

pandemic on the energy sector and identifies key issues that are being considered in 

the development of AEO2021: 

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/trends_expectations.php

• EIA will host a series of workshops on the near- and long-term impacts on energy 

markets, with the petroleum and natural gas workshop on September 29 at 11:00 AM 

EST. See: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/workshop/energy_markets/

2 Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Oil and Gas Supply

3 Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
AEO2021 OGSM updates

4 Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

• Data updates

– Tight/shale estimated ultimate recovery per well (EUR)

– Lower 48 offshore and Alaska announced discoveries

– Historical production through 2019 and estimated 2020

– STEO calibration

• Model improvement

– Offshore discovery process component

• COVID-19 related assumptions

– Increased hurdle rate of return 

– Reduced drilling responsiveness to price changes in the short-term
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference

Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated 9/20/20

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices are lower than last year’s AEO

WTI crude oil price

2020 $/barrel

5

History Projections
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Edition of the Annual Energy Outlook 

Unproved tight oil (including shale oil)

Unproved other oil (including Alaska and offshore)

Proved reserves (all types and locations)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 and prior editions

Note: Resources are as of January 1 of two years prior to the “edition” year of the AEO (e.g. AEO2021 is 1/1/2019).

Multiple factors have contributed to crude oil resource estimate increases over the 

years, with tight oil the primary contributor recently 

U.S. crude oil and lease condensate resources

billion barrels

6

174

124

47

344

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference

Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated 9/20/20

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

U.S. crude oil production is generally lower than last year’s AEO

U.S. crude oil production

million barrels per day

7

History Projections
Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated 9/20/20

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Tight oil leads growth in U.S. crude oil production in AEO2021 

U.S. crude oil production by type

million barrels per day

8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference

Lower 48 offshore

tight oil

Lower 48 other

Alaska

History Projections
0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

 Sum of selected Permian

 Wolfcamp*

 Bakken

 Other

 Eagle Ford

 Spraberry*

 Avalon/Bone Springs*

 Austin Chalk

 Niobrara

 Woodford

 Monterey

*Permian Basin

Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated 9/20/20

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Bakken and Wolfcamp lead growth in tight oil production

Crude oil production by selected tight oil plays

million barrels per day

9

History Projections
0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Edition of the Annual Energy Outlook

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 and prior editions

Note: Resources are as of January 1 of two years prior to the “edition” year of the AEO (e.g. AEO2021 is 1/1/2019).

Technically recoverable natural gas resources reflect new information, a combination 

of assessments and EIA updates based on analysis of well-level production

U.S. dry natural gas resources

trillion cubic feet

10

475

1,393

978

Unproved shale gas (including tight oil plays)

Unproved other gas (including Alaska and offshore)

Proved reserves (all types and locations)

2,846

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference

Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated 9/20/20 (1 Tcf = 2.74 Bcf/d)

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

U.S. dry natural gas production is lower than last year’s AEO

U.S. dry natural gas production 

trillion cubic feet

11

History Projections
Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated 9/20/20

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Shale gas leads growth in U.S. dry natural gas production in AEO2021 

U.S. dry natural gas production by type 

trillion cubic feet

12

History Projections

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

shale gas & tight 

oil plays

other lower 48 

onshore

lower 48 offshore

Alaska

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

 Marcellus

 Utica

 Other

 Haynesville/Bossier

 Eagle Ford

 Barnett

 Fayetteville

 Woodford

 Bakken

 Antrim

Note: Other includes natural gas production in tight oil plays.

Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated 9/20/20

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Marcellus, Haynesville, Utica, and tight oil plays are the major contributors to U.S. 

shale gas production

Dry natural gas production by selected shale play

trillion cubic feet

13

History Projections
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference

Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated 9/20/20

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

NGPL production is lower than last year’s AEO

Natural gas plant liquids production

million barrels per day

14

History Projections
Liquid fuels markets

15 Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Petroleum updates for AEO2021

• Updated international crude oil and product import/export curves

• Updated crude oil type price differentials

• Updated pipeline capacity and transportation costs

• Annual update of state and federal fuel taxes

• Annual capacity updates for refinery and cogeneration

16 Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated as of 9/20/20

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Brent crude oil prices are lower compared to AEO2020

Brent crude oil spot price

2020 $/barrel

17

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference

2020

history projections
Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated as of 9/20/20

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

The Brent-WTI price spread lowers and then slowly increase in the projection period

Brent-WTI price spread

2020 $/barrel

18

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference

2020

history projections
Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated as of 9/20/20

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Total crude supply to the U.S. refineries reflects lower atmospheric distillation capacity 

starting in 2020

Total crude supply to the U.S. refineries

million barrels per day

19

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference

2020

history projections

0

//
Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated as of 9/20/20

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Crude oil exports recover in the near future and longer term will be above AEO2020 

levels

Crude oil exports

million barrels per day

20

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference

2020

history projections
Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated as of 9/20/20

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Net imports of petroleum products are largely driven by trends in domestic petroleum 

product consumption

Net petroleum product imports

millions barrels per day

21

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference

2020

history projections
Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated as of 9/20/20

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

For AEO2021, the spread between gasoline and diesel prices will be lower in nearterm, before evening out to similar price spread as AEO2020

Diesel and Gasoline end-use prices

2020 $/gallon

22

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2020

history projections

diesel

gasoline

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference
Biofuel updates for AEO2021

• Reactivated/extended the biodiesel blender tax credits through 2022, per legislation

• Added revenue for sale of distillers dried grain 

• Annual capacity updates for ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel

• Bi-annual update of E15 maximum market penetration rates (slower growth through 

2025)

• Improved representation of biodiesel imports

• Added representation of renewable diesel imports

• Updates to E85 representation

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 23

Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated as of 9/20/20
0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference

Biofuels supply is projected to recover quickly after 2020, albeit at a lower 

level than AEO2020

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 24

Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated as of 9/20/20

Biofuels supply

millions barrels per day 2020

history projections
0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

billion gallons 2020

history projections

Biodiesel and renewable diesel supply are more in line with historical levels after 

improvement made to the feedstock curves and import supply representation 

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 25

Source: Preliminary AEO2021 runs, dated as of 9/20/20

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

billion gallons

Preliminary

AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020

Reference

2020

history projections

Biodiesel Supply Renewable Diesel Supply
Natural gas markets

26 Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
• Natural Gas Annual released November 2019 (2018 annual data)

• Natural Gas Monthly through April 2020 (complete 2019 history)

• Mexican, Canadian historical data through 2019

• Pipeline capacity, pipeline projects tracked by EIA

• Natural gas spot price data through May 2020

• However, these changes between AEO2020 and preliminary AEO2021 projections are 

driven by external changes in assumptions:

– World oil price assumptions

– COVID-19 related consumption changes

– Short Term Energy Outlook forecast

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes 

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Data updates and changes for AEO2021 

27
0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Production

Consumption

Source: Preliminary AEO2021 run dated 9/20/20, EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2020

U.S. natural gas consumption and production are significantly lower in the short term. 

In the long term, consumption remains largely unchanged from AEO2020, while 

production trends lower.

U.S. dry natural gas production and consumption in the Reference case

trillion cubic feet

28

2020

history projections

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes 

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference
Source: Preliminary AEO2021 run dated 9/20/20, EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2020

In AEO2021, U.S. Henry Hub natural gas spot prices are much higher in the near term; 

however, long term price trends remain relatively unchanged, approaching 

$3.50/MMBtu in 2050

Henry Hub natural gas spot price in the Reference case

2020 dollars per million British thermal unit

29

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2020

history projections

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes 

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference
U.S. natural gas imports from Canada

trillion cubic feet

U.S. natural gas exports to Canada

trillion cubic feet

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes 

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

While long term trend in U.S. imports from Canada remains unchanged, projected U.S. exports to 

Canada are expected to decline as demand in eastern Canada shifts away from natural gas

Source: Preliminary AEO2021 run dated 9/20/20, EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2020

30

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2020

history projections

2020

history projections

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference
• October STEO updates are 

expected to increase U.S. gross 

pipeline exports in 2021

• Pending assessment of current 

market trends in Mexico

– Domestic production declines

– Changes to expected consumption 

patterns given Mexican policies, 

COVID-related declines in short term

U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico

trillion cubic feet

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes 

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Current long-term trends in U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico remain the same, 

subject to additional updates in assumptions in AEO 2021

Source: Preliminary AEO2021 run dated 9/20/20, EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2020

31

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference
LNG exports and COVID-19

• Short Term: Present-2021

– the latest STEO forecast assumes that lower global natural gas demand as a result of 

responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and an unfavorable LNG pricing environment will lower 

U.S. LNG exports, primarily in the second and third quarters of 2020

– declines in forecast LNG exports are largely based on announced and anticipated cargo 

cancellations and weak global natural gas forward prices

• Medium Term: 2022-2025

– we do not expect any unplanned export capacity to be added before 2025

– EIA expects the world oil price to be lower from 2022 to 2025, which would likely affect the 

competitiveness of U.S. LNG exports may decrease capacity utilization

• Long Term: 2025 and Beyond

– with lower international oil prices, EIA expects LNG exports to be lower 

– the other major driver of LNG exports is international demand for natural gas, remains very 

uncertain

32 Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes 

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
AEO2020 U.S. LNG exports by side case

trillion cubic feet

U.S. LNG exports in Reference case

trillion cubic feet

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes 

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

LNG export, world price assumptions are still be reviewed, but preliminary 

results suggest no additional capacity will be built in Reference case

Source: Preliminary AEO2021 run dated 9/20/20, EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2020

33

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

High Oil 

Price

High Oil and 

Gas Supply

Reference 

Low Oil Price

Low Oil and 

Gas Supply

Existing + under 

construction 

U.S. LNG export 

capacity 

(nameplate)

2020

history projections

2019

history projections

Preliminary AEO2021 Ref

AEO2020 Reference
Updated LNG export assumptions

• Dates of projects under construction in AEO2020 updated

• No new projects reached FID since those that were added in AEO2020:

– Golden Pass LNG (February 2019): 3 trains, 2.04 Bcf/d, 2024-2025

– Sabine Pass Train 6 (June 2019): 0.7 Bcf/d, 2023

– Calcasieu Pass (August 2019): 10 trains, 1.32 Bcf/d, 2023-2024

• Several potential projects that have been approved have announced scaled- back plans, 

delays, or have been cancelled

– Lake Charles LNG (March 2020): Shell withdrew from 2.2 Bcf/d project, Energy Transfer delayed FID to 2021

– Magnolia LNG (September 2020): Glenfarne purchased project for $2.24 million, received extension through 

2026 to construct 1.2 Bcf/d terminal

– Delayed decisions to 2021: Driftwood LNG, Delfin LNG, Venture Global Plaquemines Parish, Annova’s

Brownsville

• Additional potential updates

– Nameplate vs. peak capacity

– Updated shipping costs from U.S. Gulf, East Coast to Asia and Europe

34 Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Contacts for liquid fuels markets including biofuels

35

For questions about the Liquid Fuels Market Module contact:

Elizabeth May: elizabeth.may@eia.gov

For questions about the International Energy Module contact:

Adrian Geagla: adrian.geagla@eia.gov

For questions about Biofuels contact:

Estella Shi: estella.shi@eia.gov

Liquid Fuels Markets Team Lead: 

James Preciado: james.preciado@eia.gov

Biofuels and Emerging Technologies Team Lead: 

Mindi Farber-DeAnda: mindi.farber-deanda@eia.gov

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Contacts for oil and natural gas supply and natural gas markets

36

For questions about Oil & Gas Supply Model and Lower 48 onshore contact:

Dana Van Wagener: dana.vanwagener@eia.gov

For questions about Lower 48 offshore and Alaska contact:

Albert Painter: albert.painter@eia.gov

Exploration and Production Team Lead:

Meg Coleman: meg.coleman@eia.gov

For questions pertaining to the Natural Gas Markets Module:

Katie Dyl: kathryn.dyl@eia.gov

Natural Gas Markets Team Lead:

Mindi Farber-DeAnda: mindi.farber-deanda@eia.gov

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
We welcome feedback on our assumptions and documentation

• Working group meetings http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/

• The AEO Assumptions report http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/

• NEMS Model Documentation

– Oil and gas supply (OGSM) 

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/nems/documentation/ogsm/pdf/m063(2020).pdf

– Natural gas market (NGMM) 

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/nems/documentation/ngmm/pdf/mgmm(2020).pdf

– Liquid fuels market (LFMM) 

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/nems/documentation/lfmm/pdf/m059(2020).pdf

– International energy (IEM) 

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/nems/documentation/international/pdf/m071(2020).pdf

• Trends and Expectations Surrounding the Outlook for Energy Markets 

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/trends_expectations.php/

37 Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

International Energy Statistics database | www.eia.gov/ies

To receive emails concerning releases related to the Annual Energy Outlook or other EIA publications, 

please subscribe at https://www.eia.gov/tools/emailupdates/. 

Central AEO email address: AnnualEnergyOutlook@eia.gov

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for discussion purposes

AEO2021 Working Group September 23, 2020 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

For more information

38