October 2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

September 28, 2021

MEMORANDUM FOR: Angelina LaRose

Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis

FROM: Jim Diefenderfer

Director, Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling

SUBJECT: Summary of second AEO2022 Buildings Working Group held on

September 28, 2021

This memorandum provides an overview of the presentation given at the second Annual Energy Outlook 

2022 (AEO2022) Buildings Working Group meeting and summarizes the discussion. The meeting focused 

on how preliminary AEO2022 Reference case results compare with AEO2021 Reference case results. It 

also highlighted the major modeling and data updates that we incorporated for AEO2022. The 

presentation for this meeting is available in a separate document. 

AEO2022 results overview and comparison with AEO2021

The meeting began with a discussion about the preliminary delivered energy consumption projections 

by fuel and sector. We then compared preliminary AEO2022 results with AEO2021 results. We showed a 

comparison of residential and commercial electricity and natural gas prices, and we explained that nearand long-term differences in fuel prices represent uncertainty associated with the recovery from the 

pandemic. We shared preliminary projections of higher residential electricity prices and lower natural 

gas prices compared with the AEO2021. We tentatively project the opposite in the commercial sector, 

where electricity prices are lower through 2050 than in the AEO2021 and natural gas prices are slightly 

higher. 

We shared projected heating and cooling degree day data and described how we use a 30-year linear 

trend based on historical weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

(NOAA) for 1999 to 2020. The starting point for this trend (in 2023) begins from the end of NOAA’s 15-

month short-term forecast. Generally, we project fewer heating degree days than in AEO2021 and 

similar or slightly more cooling degree days through 2050.
October 2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

We presented residential housing stocks and commercial floorspace, which grow at 0.7% and 1% per 

year, respectively, from 2021 to 2050. The Macroeconomic Activity Module of the National Energy 

Modeling System (NEMS) projects growth in residential housing starts and commercial floorspace, both

key drivers of buildings energy consumption. Increasing energy efficiency of major end-use equipment is 

offsetting some growth in energy use even as housing stocks and total floorspace continue to grow.

We then presented AEO2022 Reference case data for residential- and commercial-sector energy 

consumption. We project electricity consumption to grow in both the residential and commercial 

sectors, as fast as or slightly slower than in the AEO2021 Reference case. Natural gas and petroleum use

decrease in the residential sector and increase slightly in the commercial sector relative to AEO2021. In 

the commercial sector, electricity consumption grows three-times faster than natural gas consumption, 

which is consistent with the AEO2021. Overall, buildings consumption of petroleum liquids and other 

fuels decreases from 2021 to 2050. 

AEO2022 model updates, policy updates, and historical updates

We discussed various updates for the AEO2022. We highlighted our work to incorporate a new 

contractor report that updates and adds new characterizations for residential and commercial 

miscellaneous electric loads (MELs). We showed how electricity use for television and computer-related

consumption projections have changed since AEO2021 based on this report. As the installed base and 

the unit energy consumption (UEC) of devices change over time, related energy consumption changes as 

well. For example, we shared that plug-in devices are generally consuming less energy as over-the-top 

streaming devices replace more energy-intensive Blu-ray players and VCRs. Starting with the AEO2022, 

we no longer explicitly model Blu-ray and VCR consumption, reflecting the decline of these devices in 

U.S. households since our last MELs update in 2013.

We project more residential computing equipment and related energy consumption in AEO2022, 

compared with past AEOs, based on growing rural broadband availability, more monitors per computer, 

and increased use of integrated access devices that combine modems and routers into a single unit. In 

addition, laptop and desktop computer UECs do not decrease over time as much as in the past report.

Increasing use of data center services in commercial buildings has increased commercial computing 

consumption relative to AEO2021 and is projected to increase over time. Electricity use from video 

displays is significantly lower than in AEO2021. 

For the first time, the residential model endogenously accounts for historical housing demolitions to 

calculate average annual reductions in housing stocks. We use historical changes in housing stocks and 

starts from 1991 through 2015―the base year of our residential model―to project future demolitions. 

This model update allows interactions that can automatically account for revised historical data and 

potentially allow for more dynamic projections in side cases where macroeconomic activity varies.

We discussed residential and commercial solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity projections. The AEO2022 

reflects historical capacity through 2020. Revised higher historical installed system costs and smaller 

average system sizes reflected in Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s latest Tracking the Sun report

account for some differences in solar PV capacity between AEO2021 and AEO2022. AEO2022 includes 
October 2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

extended federal energy efficiency rebates and renewables tax credits from the Consolidated 

Appropriations Act, 2021, which were not included in the AEO2021.

We described how installed PV system costs have been relatively flat in the residential sector and that 

commercial sector PV system cost declines have slowed in recent years. For this reason, we used 

National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s 2021 Annual Technology Baseline conservative case to develop 

projected PV costs.

Other items

We shared the latest available information about our publications, including the upcoming release of 

the Short-Term Energy Outlook on October 13, the availability of buildings characteristics tables from 

the 2018 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS), and information about the 2020 

Residential Energy Consumption Survey to be released in early 2022.

We highlighted a list of buildings-related reports, including recently updated reports on modeling 

distributed generation in the buildings sector and the latest MELs report.

Finally, we mentioned that we are hiring new employees and indicated that further information is 

available on our careers web page.

Discussion

A participant asked for more information about a planned set of side cases exploring the impact of 

alternative weather assumptions. We explained that we are exploring altering the projected rate of 

change for heating and cooling degree days and using fewer historical years to define our projected 

weather trend. We intend to explore impacts not only on commercial and residential buildings but also 

on fuel supply.

A participant requested more information about whether we assume that demolished homes are 

automatically replaced with new homes or if demolished homes represent a net decrease in housing 

stock. We do not assume demolished homes are automatically replaced, nor do we assume any 

equipment from demolished homes goes to a second-hand market. We use housing starts projected 

from the Macroeconomic model.

Finally, a participant asked whether data centers are treated as a distinct building type in NEMS, and 

whether we will consider treating cloud service data centers and on-premises data centers as a separate 

building type in the future. We explained that NEMS buildings types are based on the principal building 

activities listed in CBECS, which we use to estimate the share of data centers among large office 

buildings. Although we don’t currently have a separate building type for data centers or different data 

center types in NEMS, we do account for additional data center ventilation, cooling, and other data 

center energy uses in large office buildings. 

We shared that the Transportation Energy Consumption and Efficiency Modeling group analyzes electric 

vehicles (EVs) so that attendees who are interested in EV charging can learn about the latest modeling 

developments in this area by attending the Transportation working group meeting. We directed 

participants to the AEO Working Group schedule.
October 2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Attendees

Name Affiliation

John Agan U.S. Department of Energy

Justin Baca Solar Energy Industries Association

Youngsun Baek Union of Concerned Scientists

Alan Cooke Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Eric Fox Itron

Adam Guzzo U.S. Department of Energy

Chioke Harris National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Robert Hershey Robert L. Hershey, P.E.

Rachel Hoesly OnLocation, Inc.

Ben King Rhodium Group

Hannah Kolus Rhodium Group

Jared Langevin Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Jack Mayernik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Cecily McChalicher Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships

Elizabeth McNamee U.S. Department of Energy

John Meyer Leidos, Inc.

Amir Roth U.S. Department of Energy

Glen Salas SMS

Marina Sofos U.S. Department of Energy

David White Synapse Energy Economics

EIA staff attendees

Tuncay Alparslan

Stacy Angel

Erin Boedecker

Grace Deng

Jim Diefenderfer

Travis Freidman

Sarah Grady

Peter Gross

Thaddeus Huetteman

Kevin Jarzomski

Mala Kline

Greg Lawson

Janice Lent

Katie Lewis

Ruey-Pyng Lu

Nilay Manzagol

Laura Martin

Joelle Michaels

Kevin Nakolan

Jay Olsen

Kelly Perl

Nicholas Skarzynski

Courtney Sourmehi

Michael Stanley

Manussawee Sukunta