U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2019:

Preliminary Results for Electricity, Coal, 

Nuclear, and Renewables

For

Joint Session- AEO2019 Working Groups

September 20, 2018 | Washington, D.C.

By

EIA, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear & Renewables Analysis
Welcome to AEO2019 Preliminary Results Working Group

• We will be confirming attendance: please state your name and affiliation at 

log-in. 

• NOTE: we will be recording the Working Group presentation to enable 

preparation of meeting notes. The recording will not be made available to 

anyone outside the Working Group.

• The meeting is being conducted under Chatham House Rules.

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables 

Working Group: Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 2
Summary

• Key developments for AEO2019 cycle

• Preliminary AEO2019 outlook results

• Open discussion

3 AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Key developments for AEO2019 in electric sector modeling

Electricity/Nuclear

– Revised costs for new generating units CC/CT 

– Additional state programs to support non-emitting generation (NJ, CA)

– Shift from risk analysis for individual nuclear plants to common generation-at-risk treatment

– Electric generating capacity updates

– Revised short-term elasticity approach

Renewables

– Improved representation of renewable generation resources

– Updated state RPS programs

– Updated solar costs to reflect policy and market considerations

Coal

– Updated coal supply curve parameters and analysis of coal supply contracts

4 AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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AEO2019 Cases

• Reference Case 

• Core side cases

– High/low oil price

– High/low economic growth

– High/low oil and gas resource and technology

• Additional considerations

– Affordable Clean Energy rule

– Revised NSPS alternative cases

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 5

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Electricity/Nuclear Updates

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 6

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EPA proposed replacement of Clean Power Plan and revision of NSPS

• EPA proposed the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule, replacing the original Clean 

Power Plan (proposed Aug 2018- currently in 60 day comment period)

– Revises EPA’s BSER (“best system of emission reduction”) finding for GHG emissions from existing power 

plants to include only heat-rate efficiency improvements 

– Rather than setting specific technology-based standards, gives states a list of “candidate technologies” that 

can be used to establish performance standards for use in state plans 

– Revises EPA’s New Source Review Permitting program so that only projects that increase a plant’s hourly 

rate of pollutant emissions would be subject to full NSR analysis

• EPA is expected to issue revised Standards of Performance (NSPS) for greenhouse 

gas emissions from new electric generating units shortly

– Will cover treatment of new, modified, or reconstructed stationary sources

• As in AEO2018 EIA’s Reference Case will exclude the CPP and retain current NSPS

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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7
Updated treatment of plant aging, generator cost (capital/O&M) and 

performance for existing units

• S&L did not find data to support EIA’s current approach to plant aging costs

– where aging was a factor its impact was consistent over time rather than an increase in spending 

at year 30 and it was significant in only a limited number of technology types

• While aging was not as significant a factor in fossil generation cost, S&L found 

other variables to be significant for capital expenditures, including:

– Capacity for gas/oil steam plants and wind turbines, and

– Operating hours for natural gas combined cycle,

– Number of starts for natural gas combustion turbines.

• S&L recommended additional study to test whether generators incur incremental 

capital spending to prevent deterioration in operating performance 

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables 

Working Group: Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 8

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Comparing S&L recommended capital expenditure levels for coal-fired 

units to current EMM treatment

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables 

Working Group: Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 9

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0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75

2017$ kW/year

Midpoint years of plant age range

New Value – No FGD New Value – with FGD Existing EMM Value
Revised costs for new generating units: Gas CC vs. CT

Combined cycle/combustion turbine

• Recent reports1 suggest a continued decline in the cost of new combined 

cycle gas turbines, converging on simple cycle cost

• PJM’s Cost of New Entry Study estimated that for example in the EMAAC 

region gas CC overnight capital cost was at $873/kW (vs. $898 for CT)

– Attributed to improved performance, lower unit cost, and lower capital cost

– EIA confirmed declining costs in evaluation of data for new builds

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables 

Working Group: Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

1 https://www.pjm.com/-/media/committees-groups/committees/mic/20180425-special/20180425-pjm-2018-cost-of-new-entry-study.ashx

10

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Additional state programs to support non-emitting generation

New programs

– New Jersey S-2313 zero emission certificate program

– California SB 100 renewable portfolio standard program

– Revised RPS policies

Implemented in AEO2018

– Illinois: Future Energy Jobs bill

– New York: Clean Energy Standard legislation

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables 

Working Group: Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 11

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Shift from risk analysis for individual nuclear plants to common 

generation-at-risk treatment

• In both the AEO2018 and AEO2019, a nuclear unit is projected to be retired if 

the nuclear unit is:

– In dispatch analysis (EFD): projected to have 3+ years of “negative net revenues” (projected 

energy only revenues insufficient to cover projected costs) and

– In capacity expansion modeling (ECP): not required for least cost optimization to meet regional 

reserve margin requirements

• AEO2018 also included retirement of individual nuclear plants based on an 

analysis of local market conditions to evaluate economic risk factors

– Analysis was based on local market prices, fixed costs, deregulated market, load growth, aging 

costs, state RPS, availability of state support, grid congestion, growth in natural gas use

– AEO2019 no longer includes retirements based on this generation-at-risk analysis

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 12

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Renewables Updates

13

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AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018
Renewable Electric Power Sector Updates for AEO2019

• REStore

• RPS updates

• New capacity credit algorithm

• New spinning reserve parameter

• kWh to BTU conversion

• Solar cost evaluation

14

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AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018
Generation in California, April 2050

megawatthours

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables 

Working Group: Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

EIA has improved its enhanced-resolution treatment of 

renewables and storage with an integrated dispatch approach

15

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18

weekend weekday

curtailments

solar

wind

storage

hydro

natural gas

other

0

10

20

30

0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18

marginal

price

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Renewable Portfolio Standard Updates

• Massachusetts

– 35% renewables by 2030 (up from 25% by 2030)

• New Jersey

– AB 3723 (SB 2314) 21% from Class I renewables by January 1, 2020

• 35% by January 1, 2025

• 50% by January 1, 2030

– Phase down of solar carve-out

• California

– 60% renewable generation by 2030, 100% carbon-free by 2045 (to include large scale hydro, 

CCS, and nuclear)

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables 

Working Group: Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 16

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• RPS projection compliance 

calculated by:

• Approximately 92% of RPS 

compliance met with in-state 

renewables in 2050 (includes 

large-scale hydro), even without 

new targets

• Qualifying ‘clean energy’ 

resources and additional 

specifications regarding the CA 

RPS are pending regulatory 

determination 

California 100% carbon-free goal has limited impact on results

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables 

Working Group: Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Renewable Energy Generation/Total Electric Power Projections 

20 - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / California 

All Sectors : Electricity Generation : Total (BkWh)

AEO 2019 w/ CA RPS

AEO 2019 w/o CA RPS

AEO 2018

95%

91%

92%

GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

TT TT SS SS ,

where Total Sales = Total Consumption

− End−use Generation

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Preliminary Results

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 18

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Lower short term natural gas price path in AEO2019, 

stabilizing at 7-8% lower than AEO2018

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

Source: ref2018.1213a, ref2019.0914a

19

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0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Natural Gas: Henry Hub Spot Price

2018$ per MMBtu

AEO2018

AEO2019
Electricity sales largely unchanged from AEO2018

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

Source: ref2018.1213a, ref2019.0914a

20

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3,000

3,250

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

4,500

4,750

5,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Total Electricity Sales

billion kWh

AEO2018

AEO2019
Generation mix is similar to AEO2018, with slightly less coal and higher 

mid-term natural gas use due to lower projected natural gas prices

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

Source: ref2018.1213a, ref2019.0914a

21

AEO2019 _____

AEO2018 _ _ _ _

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2017

history projections

Reference case

Electricity generation from selected fuels

billion kilowatthours

natural gas

coal

nuclear

renewables

Petroleum
Similar to AEO2018, primarily solar and natural gas-fired 

capacity is added after 2025

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

Source: ref2018.d091617a, ref2017.d120816a

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Electricity generating capacity additions, AEO2019

gigawatt

History Projections

Solar

Wind

Oil & natural gas

Nuclear

Coal

Other

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Electricity generating capacity additions, AEO2018

gigawatt

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Utility and end-use PV capacity is lower due to lower natural gas 

& electricity prices and a re-specification of the end-use PV model

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

Source: ref2018.1213a, ref2019.0914a

23

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172

153

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Utility-scale solar PV generating capacity

gigawatts

AEO2018

AEO2019

251

257

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

End-use solar PV generating capacity

gigawatts

AEO2018

AEO2019
Coal Production and Exports

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 24

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AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

Source: ref2018.1213a, ref2019.0914a *2017 - 2019 data is estimated per the STEO projections 

Total coal production down slightly in short-term, but increases 

slightly in later years

25

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total coal production (1970-2050)

million short tons

AEO2019 

AEO2018

History Projection

2016

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Appalachia

Interior

Western

Total U.S.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Regional coal production, 1970-2050

Million short tons

19 Total U.S.

18 Total U.S.

AEO2019

AEO2018

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

Source: ref2018.1213a, ref2019.0914a *2017 - 2019 data is estimated per the STEO projections 

Coal production by region, 1970-2050

26

2016*

History Projections

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AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

U.S. coal exports are expected to recover only gradually through 2050

27

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Coking

Steam

History Projection

Source History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Quarterly Coal Report

Projections: AEO2019 Reference case (Preliminary Ref2019.d0914a)

U.S. coal exports, 1995-2050

Million short tons

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For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

28 AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

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Contact information – Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and 

Renewables Analysis

• Jim Diefenderfer, Director, Jim.Diefenderfer@eia.gov

• Thad Huetteman, Team Leader – Electricity Analysis, Thaddeus.Huetteman@eia.gov

• Greg Adams, Team Leader – Coal & Uranium Analysis, Greg.Adams@eia.gov

• Chris Namovicz, Team Leader – Renewable Electricity Analysis, Chris.Namovicz@eia.gov

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 29

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Contact information – Electricity Analysis Team

• Thad Huetteman, Team Leader, Thaddeus.Huetteman@eia.gov, (202) 586-7238

• Lori Aniti, Lori.Aniti@eia.gov, (202) 586-2867

• Tyler Hodge, Tyler.Hodge@eia.gov, (202) 586-0442

• Scott Jell, Scott.Jell@eia.gov, (202) 586-5196

• Jeff Jones, Jeffrey.Jones@eia.gov, (202) 586-2038

• Augustine Kwon, Augustine.Kwon@eia.gov, (202) 586-3645

• Nilay Manzagol, Nilay.Manzagol@eia.gov, (202) 586-3704

• Laura Martin, Laura.Martin@eia.gov, (202) 586-1494

• Kenny Dubin; Kenneth.Dubin@eia.gov, (202) 586-0477

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 30

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Contact information – Coal & Uranium Analysis Team

• Greg Adams, Team Leader, Greg.Adams@eia.gov, (202) 586-7343

• David Fritsch, David.Fritsch@eia.gov, (202) 287-6538

• Elias Johnson, Elias.Johnson@eia.gov, (202) 586-7277

• Slade Johnson, Slade.Johnson@eia.gov, (202) 586-3945

• Michael Scott, Michael.Scott@eia.gov, (202) 586-0253

• Bonnie West, Bonnie.West@eia.gov, (202) 586-2415

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 31

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Contact information – Renewable Electricity Analysis Team

• Chris Namovicz, Team Leader, Chris.Namovicz@eia.gov, (202) 586-7120

• Richard Bowers, Richard.Bowers@eia.gov, (202) 586-8586

• Michelle Bowman, Michelle.Bowman@eia.gov, (202) 586-0526

• Cara Marcy, Cara.Marcy@eia.gov, (202) 586-9224

• Fred Mayes, Fred.Mayes@eia.gov, (202) 586-1508

• Manussawee Sukunta, Manussawee.Sukunta@eia.gov, (202) 586-0279

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 32

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Supplemental Slide

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018 33

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• The effect of the solar PV tariff is 

expected to be offset by excess 

solar panel supply resulting from 

reset of Chinese policy

• Recent IRS safe-harbor guidance 

is expected to have a significant 

effect on solar PV build decisions, 

as it effectively allows up to a 4-

year construction period

AEO 2019 Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Working Group: 

Preliminary Results September 20, 2018

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860 Annual Electric Generators Report, Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory, 

Utility-Scale Solar 2018, and National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmark: Q1 2017

Solar PV cost assumption is reasonably in-line with cost trends across 

various sources

34

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Solar photovoltaic with tracking installed costs comparison

2017 dollars per watt-ac

EIA generator data

LBNL (capacity-weighted)

NREL

AEO2019

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