U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Assumptions and Expectations for Annual Energy 

Outlook 2016: 

Oil and Gas Working Group

AEO2016 Oil and Gas Supply Working Group Meeting

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis

December 1, 2015| Washington, DC

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
We welcome feedback on our assumptions and documentation

• The AEO Assumptions report http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/

• Appendix 2.C and Appendix 2.D in the AEO Documentation 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/nems/documentation/ogsm/pdf/m063(2014

).pdf

• We have restarted our working papers series 

http://www.eia.gov/workingpapers/

• And these working group meetings 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/

2 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
OGSM / Upstream

3 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Oil and Gas Supply – Lower 48 onshore

• Update NPGL factors as well as the composition shares of NGPLs (ethane, 

propane, butane, iso-butane, pentanes plus).

• Update EURs as time allows – focus on PA Marcellus first since production 

reporting has changed from six-month totals to monthly (started Jan. 2015).

• Revise OGSM representation of production profiles and costs change over 

time because of technology changes. (early work of a two year project)

• Revise assumptions pertaining to price responsiveness of drilling, as needed 

to reflect analysis incorporated into the STEO.

4 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Rest of US gas production

Marcellus (PA, WV, OH & NY)

Haynesville (LA & TX)

Eagle Ford (TX)

Fayetteville (AR)

Barnett (TX)

Woodford (OK)

Bakken (ND)

Antrim (MI, IN, & OH)

Utica (OH, PA & WV)

Other US 'shale'

Shale gas % of total

Natural gas production (dry)

billion cubic feet per day

Shale gas production as a 

percent of total gas production

Estimated U.S. shale gas production was 42.0 Bcf/d in October 2015 

about 56% of total U.S. dry production (74.8 Bcf/d)

Sources: EIA Natural Gas Monthly, STEO through October 2015 and Drilling Info.

5 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Rest of U.S. Oil Production

Eagle Ford (TX)

Bakken (MT & ND)

Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)

Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)

Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)

Delaware (TX & NM Permian)

Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)

Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY)

Haynesville

Utica (OH, PA & WV)

Marcellus (PA, WV, OH & NY)

Woodford (OK)

Granite Wash (OK & TX)

Austin Chalk (LA & TX)

Monterey (CA)

Tight oil % of total

Tight oil production

million barrels of oil per day

Tight oil production as a

percent of total oil production

Estimated U.S. tight oil production was 4.4 MMbbl/d in October 2015 

about 49% of total U.S. oil production (9.0 MMbbl/d)

Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through October 2015 and represent EIA’s 

official tight oil estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).

6 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
U.S. crude oil production

million barrels per day

Change between Jan. & Nov. 2015 STEO forecasts of U.S. crude oil production

million barrels per day

January 2015 STEO forecast of U.S. oil production generally within 150,000 b/d 

for each month in 2015, but 2016 is much lower because prices have not rebound

Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlooks, January 2015 and November 2015

7 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

Jan-to-Nov Chg (R axis)

STEO_Nov2015

STEO_Jan2015
Oil and Gas Supply – Offshore GOM and Alaska

• Update assumptions for announced discoveries in the GOM (earliest start 

year, field size, production profiles)

• Revise resource assumptions for the offshore North Slope to reflect Shell's 

disappointing results in the Chukchi Sea, BOEM canceling upcoming Arctic 

lease sales, and Repsol deferring exploration in the Arctic

8 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Lower 48 offshore announced discoveries

9 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Field name Field 

nickname

Water 

Depth 

(Feet)

Year of 

Discovery

Start Year 

of 

Production

Resource 

size 

(MMBoe)

AC865 GOTCHA 7844 2006 2019 80

DC353 VICKSBURG 7457 2009 2019 325

GB427

CARDAMOM 

DEEP 2720 2009 2015 182

GB506 BUSHWOOD 2700 2009 2019 65

GC432 SAMURAI 3400 2009 2017 60

GC468

STAMPEDEPONY 3497 2006 2018 372

GC512

STAMPEDEKNOTTY 

HEAD 3557 2005 2018 372

GC903 HEIDELBERG 5271 2009 2016 400

KC102 TIBER 4132 2009 2017 692

KC292 KASKIDA 5894 2006 2020 691

KC736 MOCCASIN 6759 2011 2021 350

KC872 BUCKSKIN 6978 2009 2018 200

Field 

name

Field nickname Water 

Depth 

(Feet)

Year of 

Discovery

Start Year 

of 

Production

Resource 

size 

(MMBoe)

KC919 HADRIAN NORTH 7000 2010 2020 372

KC964 HADRIAN SOUTH 7983 2009 2015 182

LL370 DIAMOND 9975 2008 2018 75

LL400 CHEYENNE EAST 9187 2011 2020 12

MC199 MANDY 2478 2010 2020 20

MC392 APPOMATTOX 7290 2009 2017 325

MC762 DEIMOS SOUTH 3122 2010 2015 75

MC771 KODIAK 5006 2008 2018 182

MC792 WEST BOREAS 3094 2009 2015 182

MC984 VITO 4038 2009 2020 365

SM217 FLATROCK 10 2007 2017 200

MC768 KAIKIAS 4575 2014 2024 100

WR029 BIG FOOT 5235 2006 2018 200
Lower 48 offshore announced discoveries (cont.)

10 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Field 

name

Field nickname Water 

Depth 

(Feet)

Year of 

Discovery

Start Year 

of 

Production

Resource 

size 

(MMBoe)

WR052 SHENANDOAH 5750 2009 2017 182

WR508 STONES 9556 2005 2018 250

WR627 JULIA 7087 2007 2018 600

MC948 GUNFLINT 6138 2008 2016 90

KC093 GILA 4900 2013 2017 692

MC782 DANTZLER 6580 2013 2017 75

MC698 BIG BEND 7273 2012 2020 65

MC026 AMETHYST 1200 2014 2017 60

MC525 RYDBERG 7500 2014 2019 100

AC815 SILVERTIP 9280 2004 2015 89

MC300 MARMALARD 6148 2012 2015 60

MC431 SON OF BLUTO 2 6461 2012 2017 100

Field 

name

Field nickname Water 

Depth 

(Feet)

Year of 

Discovery

Start Year 

of 

Production

Resource 

size 

(MMBoe)

GB959 NORTH PLATTE 4400 2012 2022 693

GC823 PARMER 3821 2012 2022 44

SE039 PHOBOS 8500 2013 2018 100

WR095

YUCATAN 

NORTH 5860 2013 2020 90

MC126

HORN 

MOUNTAIN 

DEEP 5400 2015 2017 90

GC807 ANCHOR 5183 2015 2025 1392

KC010 GUADALUPE 4000 2014 2024 450

GC040 KATMAI 2100 2014 2024 100

WR160 YETI 5895 2015 2025 175

DC398 GETTYSBURG 5000 2014 2024 100

MC079 OTIS 3800 2014 2018 44

KC642 LEON 1865 2014 2024 357

GC643

HOLSTEIN 

DEEP 4326 2014 2016 250
Representation of offshore Gulf of Mexico production profiles for 

announced discoveries

11 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Time

Rate

Start year of production

Ramp-up period: 

3 years

Peak production period: 

Until a specified fraction of 

resource has been produced

Decline period
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Clipper Balboa

Phoenix

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Clipper Balboa

Phoenix

crude oil production

thousand barrels per day

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Examples offshore Gulf of Mexico field-level production profile

Source: EIA, preliminary analysis for Annual Energy Outlook 2016

12

Monthly Annualized
NGTDM

13 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
NGTDM “overhaul”/redesign project is schedule to be completed in 

the spring

• NGTDM “overhaul”/redesign project 

– A redesigned NGTDM will allow for better representation of domestic flows and prices. 

– In tandem with the Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model project, it will also ultimately result in 

better representation of natural gas imports and exports.

14 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
AEO 2016 updates agenda

• LNG exports 

– Increased number of projects under construction

– Recategorization of fuel used at marine export facilities

• Pipeline exports

– Canada (less LNG exports, more production, more imports to U.S.)

– Mexico (less consumption and LNG imports, less exports from U.S.)

• Natural gas as a vehicle fuel

– Compressed natural gas vehicle fuel price (change in data)

– Change in LNG motor fuels tax -- $/gallon to $/DGE

15 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Increased levels LNG export liquefaction capacity under construction 

should result in higher LNG exports in early period.

16 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Site Location Total capacity Start export

Sabine Pass (1-4) Louisiana 2.20 bcf/d 2015

Cove Point Maryland 0.82 bcf/d 2017

Corpus Christi Texas 2.14 bcf/d 2018

Cameron Louisiana 1.70 bcf/d 2018

Freeport Texas 1.80 bcf/d 2018

Sabine Pass (5-6) Louisiana 1.40 bcf/d 2018

Total 10.06 bcf/d

Source: FERC

Note: Sabine Pass train 5 under construction according to news reports, not FERC. 

For some of these the start dates are near the end of the indicated year. 
Fuel used at marine liquefaction facilities

• Since we started projecting LNG exports out of the Lower 48 states, we have 

included these fuel use volumes in the lease and plant fuel category.

• Within the OES survey/data, these volumes are/will be included in the 

pipeline and distribution fuel use category.

• For AEO2016 we will move these volumes to pipeline fuel use and footnote 

the tables accordingly.

17 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Canada

• IEO2015 is showing increased consumption in Canada, but lower LNG 

exports, both of which are taken as exogenous in the AEO. 

• The IEO2015 is also projecting higher production for Canada. The AEO’s 

production equations have yet to be reviewed, although expect to increase 

shale potential. 

• Net impact will likely be increased imports from Canada.

18 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Mexico

• With the buildout of pipeline in Mexico to bring U.S. (and eventually 

Mexican) gas to markets in the south, LNG import assumptions will be lower, 

consistent with IEO2015. 

• However, the IEO2015 projection for consumption in Mexico is notably lower 

than the IEO2014. 

• Net impact will likely be decreased exports to Mexico.

19 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Natural gas used as vehicle fuel

• CNG

– EIA is no longer publishing a CNG price

– Next best option is to use EERE’s Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report

• Quarterly report of at-the-pump retail prices, include federal and state motor fuel taxes

• Gathered from Clean Cities coordinators and stake holders and averaged for 7 regions

• No information on effective price paid for nonretail (i.e., fleet) uses.

– Plan to estimate retail CNG price net of motor fuels tax as a function of commercial natural 

gas price and diesel price, then add motor fuels tax back for projection. Assume a discount 

for fleet vehicles, based on AEO2015 retail markups. 

• LNG

– Change tax to be based on energy content level, not gallons, per recent Act.

20 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, 

December 1, 2015 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change