U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Growth in Appalachian hydrocarbon gas liquids 

production leads to downstream investment

For:

2018 EIA Energy Conference

June 5, 2018 | Washington, DC

By:

Warren Wilczewski

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis
EIA products help to shape the conversation

• EIA’s Energy Mapping System provides data on U.S. energy infrastructure, including 

pipelines, terminals, refineries, gas plants, and petrochemical crackers

• EIA’s tabulation of production data enables tracking of growth in natural gas and natural gas 

plant liquids (NGPL) production in the region and around the country

• Forecasting products, including the Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the Annual 

Energy Outlook (AEO), provide insights into future trends and opportunities for 

consideration in long-term planning and investment

• EIA data tabulation of movements by pipelines, barges, and rail illustrate how the U.S. 

energy market balances production with demand

• Providing state-level supply and consumption data and estimates make more granular 

information available to consumers and local decision-makers

• Today In Energy articles educate and bring issues into focus, like our series on Appalachia 

natural gas developments

Warren Wilczewski - 2018 EIA Energy Conference

June 5, 2018 | Washington, DC 2
Key takeaways

• EIA’s coverage of Appalachian production growth is comprehensive

– Current analytical and modeling work includes detailed well data

– Monthly production statistics for natural gas and crude oil are collected and reported at 

the state level

– Tables splitting out alkanes and olefins in hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) data provide 

clearer picture of the market

– HGL-by-rail movements at the PADD level generate improved balances

• Improved forecasting tools round out the regional picture

– AEO2018 features projections for region-level NGPL production 

– Drilling Productivity Report provides near-term outlook for drilling activity and production

Warren Wilczewski - 2018 EIA Energy Conference

June 5, 2018 | Washington, DC 3
Marcellus wells through February 2018 and thermal 

maturity

Utica-Point Pleasant wells through February 2018 and 

thermal maturity

Warren Wilczewski - 2018 EIA Energy Conference

June 5, 2018 | Washington, DC

The Appalachian basin has favorable geological characteristics to 

remain a producing region for the long haul

4

WV drilling data through Dec. 2016 only; annual data released 7 months after year-end. 

OH drilling data through Dec. 2017; quarterly data released 3 months after quarter end.

Sources: EIA; DrillingInfo, Inc.; Appalachian Oil & Natural Gas Research Consortium; U.S. Geological Survey
-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

cumulative change in natural gas production since January 2012

billion cubic feet per day

Warren Wilczewski - 2018 EIA Energy Conference

June 5, 2018 | Washington, DC

Since January 2012, the Appalachia region has accounted for 65% of 

increases in natural gas production from major shale regions

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Drilling Productivity Report, May 14, 2018

5

Bakken

Permian

Eagle Ford

Appalachia

Anadarko

Niobrara

Haynesville
Natural gas pipelines in the northeastern United States built to move natural gas out of the producing region

Warren Wilczewski - 2018 EIA Energy Conference

June 5, 2018 | Washington, DC

Moving dry gas out of the Appalachian region is becoming easier, with 

outbound pipeline capacity rising four-fold since 2010

Source: EIA Natural Gas Dry Production; Northeast region slated for record natural gas pipeline capacity buildout in 2018

6
0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

U.S. NGPL production

million b/d

Warren Wilczewski - 2018 EIA Energy Conference

June 5, 2018 | Washington, DC

Since January 2010, NGPL production doubled in the U.S. and grew 

six-fold in Appalachia

Source: U.S. Natural Gas Plant Field Production; Appalachian No. 1 NGP Field Production + IN,IL,KY NGP Field Production, data to Mar. 2018

7

ethane

propane

isobutane

normal butane

natural gasoline

Appalachia (KY, OH, PA, WV) NGPL production

million b/d
Warren Wilczewski - 2018 EIA Energy Conference

June 5, 2018 | Washington, DC 8

Significant midstream investment in the region allows production to grow

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA-757 Data; Company public filings and press releases; Appalachian natural gas processing 

capacity key to increasing natural gas, NGPL production

1000

150

100

50

Gas Plant 

Capacity

MMcfd

2019

12.5 Bcfd

2010

1.1 Bcfd

Marcus Hook ->

PA NJ

DE

180

150

100

50

Fractionator

Capacity

1,000 b/d

2010

0.04 mil. b/d

2019

1.1 mil. b/d

Natural gas processing capacity Fractionation capacity
Warren Wilczewski 

- 2018 EIA Energy Conference

June 5, 2018 | Washington, DC

9

HGL pipeline Throughput 

(1,000 b/d) Start

To Canada

Mariner West 50 2013 Q4

Utopia East 50 2018 Q1

To U.S. Gulf Coast

ATEX 125 2014 Q1

ATEX expansion 25 2017 Q4

UMTP 430 2019+

To overseas export markets

Mariner East 70 2015 Q3

Mariner East II 275 2018 Q3

Mariner East IIx 250 2019 Q2

To local market

Teppco 60 2014 Q1

Cornerstone 100 2016 Q4

Falcon (Shell) 107±2020

Source: EIA, company filings and public announcements

Projects to ship HGL out 

precede development of 

in-region demand
 1,000

 1,030

 1,060

 1,090

 1,120

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

W. Virginia

average

Pennsylvania

Ohio

Kentucky

methane (1,010 Btu) 0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

ethane production

thousand b/d

Warren Wilczewski - 2018 EIA Energy Conference

June 5, 2018 | Washington, DC

Gas quality data suggests the resource potential, especially for ethane, 

is above rates of current Appalachian production

Source: EIA Heat Content of Natural Gas Consumed; Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals and Production; Natural Gas Plant Field Production

10

conservative 

ethane rejection 

estimate

reported

potential ethane 

resource at full 

recovery

heat content of delivered natural gas

Btu/scf
0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

U.S. annual NGPL production by region

million b/d

East Region annual NGPL production by product

million b/d

Warren Wilczewski - 2018 EIA Energy Conference

June 5, 2018 | Washington, DC

EIA’s AEO projects the East region to produce 35% of total U.S. 

NGPL production, with ethane accounting for half of that production

11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Midcontinent

Gulf Coast

East

Southwest

History Projections

Rocky Mountains

2017

Lower Offshore

West Coast

ethane

propane

isobutane

normal butane

natural gasoline

History 2017 Projections

Source: EIA AEO; Natural gas plant liquids production reaches new annual record in 2017, with projected continued growth
Today in Energy

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/index.php?tg=HGL%20(hydrocarbon%20gas%20liquid)

Energy by rail data

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_railNA_a_EPLLPA_RAIL_mbbl_m.htm

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

Energy Explained: Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids

http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=hgls_home

State Energy Data Portal

https://www.eia.gov/state/

Drilling Productivity Report

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

EIA Annual Conference

https://www.eia.gov/conference/2018/

12

Warren Wilczewski - 2018 EIA Energy Conference

June 5, 2018 | Washington, DC

For further reading...