U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

NUCLEAR WORKING GROUP

EIA Staff

Laura Martin, Operations Research Analyst

March 7, 2017| Washington, DC

Electricity Market Module Overview
NEMS and EMM are modular structures

Laura Martin 

Washington, DC, March 7, 2017 2

Electricity Load 

and Demand 

Submodule

Liquid Fuels 

Market Module
EMM regions are based on NERC subregions

Laura Martin 

Washington, DC, March 7, 2017 3
A range of existing and new technologies are modeled in EMM

Laura Martin 

Washington, DC, March 7, 2017 4

1The EMM represents 32 different types of existing coal steam plants, based on the different possible configuration 

of NOx, particulate and SO2 emission control devices, as well as future options for controlling mercury and carbon.

2The AEO2017 assumes new coal plants without CCS cannot be built, due to emission standards for new plants. 

These technologies exist in the modeling framework, but are not assumed available to be built in the projections.

Fossil fuel fired Nuclear Renewables

Existing Coal without FGD1

Existing Coal with FGD1

New pulverized coal2

Advanced clean coal technology (IGCC) 2

New Coal with sequestration (partial/full)

Coal steam converted to natural gas

Gas/oil steam

Conventional gas/oil combined cycle

Advanced combined cycle

Advanced combined cycle

with sequestration

Conventional combustion turbine

Advanced combustion turbine

Fuel cells

Distributed generation (Base and Peak)

(FGD = flue gas desulfurization)

Conventional nuclear

Advanced nuclear

Conventional hydropower

Geothermal

Solar‐thermal

Solar‐photovoltaic

Wind – onshore and offshore

Wood

Municipal solid waste/Landfill gas

Currently modeling AP1000

Evaluating potential for SMR as an additional choice
New Technology Assumptions – AEO2017

Laura Martin 

Washington, DC, March 7, 2017 5

Technology

First 

available 

year

Size 

(MW)

Lead 

time 

(years)

Base 

overnight 

cost in 

2016 

(2016 

$/kW)

Project 

Contingency 

Factor

Technological 

Optimism 

Factor3

Total 

overnight 

cost in 2016 

(2016 $/kW)

Variable 

O&M 

(2016 

$/MWh)

Fixed 

O&M 

(2016$/ 

kW/yr)

Heat rate 

in 2016 

(Btu/kWh)

nth-of-akind heat 

rate 

(Btu/kWh)

Coal with 30% carbon 

sequestration 2020 650 4 4,586 1.07 1.03 5,030 7.06 69.56 9,750 9,221

Coal with 90% carbon 

sequestration 2020 650 4 5,072 1.07 1.03 5,562 9.54 80.78 11,650 9,257

Conv Gas/Oil Comb Cycle 2019 702 3 923 1.05 1.00 969 3.48 10.93 6,600 6,350

Adv Gas/Oil Comb Cycle (CC) 2019 429 3 1,013 1.08 1.00 1,094 1.99 9.94 6,300 6,200

Adv CC with carbon sequestration 2019 340 3 1,917 1.08 1.04 2,153 7.08 33.21 7,525 7,493

Conv Comb Turbine7 2018 100 2 1,040 1.05 1.00 1,092 3.48 17.39 9,920 9,600

Adv Comb Turbine 2018 237 2 640 1.05 1.00 672 10.63 6.76 9,800 8,550

Fuel Cells 2019 10 3 6,252 1.05 1.10 7,221 44.91 0.00 9,500 6,960

Adv Nuclear (AP1000) 2022 2,234 6 5,091 1.10 1.05 5,880 2.29 99.65 10,459 10,459

Distributed Generation - Base 2019 2 3 1,463 1.05 1.00 1,536 8.10 18.23 8,981 8,900

Distributed Generation - Peak 2018 1 2 1,757 1.05 1.00 1,845 8.10 18.23 9,975 9,880

Biomass 2020 50 4 3,540 1.07 1.00 3,790 5.49 110.34 13,500 13,500

Geothermal 2020 50 4 2,586 1.05 1.00 2,715 0.00 117.95 9,510 9,510

MSW - Landfill Gas 2019 50 3 8,059 1.07 1.00 8,623 9.14 410.32 18,000 18,000

Conventional Hydropower 2020 500 4 2,220 1.10 1.00 2,442 2.66 14.93 9,510 9,510

Wind 2019 100 3 1,576 1.07 1.00 1,686 0.00 46.71 9,510 9,510

Wind Offshore 2020 400 4 4,648 1.10 1.25 6,391 0.00 77.30 9,510 9,510

Solar Thermal 2019 100 3 3,908 1.07 1.00 4,182 0.00 70.26 9,510 9,510

Photovoltaic 2018 150 2 2,169 1.05 1.00 2,277 0.00 21.66 9,510 9,510
EMM inputs based on historical data, assumptions and 

information from other modules of NEMS

Laura Martin 

Washington, DC, March 7, 2017 6

• Available capacity by plant type

• Plant characteristics – heat rate, emission rate, O&M cost, capacity factor –

for existing plants and new technologies (for planning)

• Fossil fuel data – price curves, sulfur, carbon, and mercury content

– Fuel price expectations for future years (30 year time horizon) for planning submodule

• Demand – electricity load by season and time slice

– 30 year expectations are needed for planning submodule

• Transmission data – constraints on interregional trade, transmission and 

distribution loss factors

• Financial inputs – cost of capital / capital structure/ discount rate for new 

builds; existing plant investment and recovery for regulated pricing

• Required reserve margins by EMM region
EMM provides outputs based on electricity capacity 

expansion and dispatch results

Laura Martin 

Washington, DC, March 7, 2017 7

• Decisions for the next model year: new capacity builds, environmental 

retrofits, retirements

• Allowance prices for environmental constraints

• Credit prices for renewable portfolio standards

• Total fuel and operating costs based on dispatch solution

• Marginal costs of generation

• Cost and quantities of electricity trade

• Fuel generation and consumption, emissions

• Retail electricity prices by end-use sector
AEO2017 continues to include the Clean Power Plan

8

• Clean Air Act Section 111b – new source CO2 emissions standards

– Fossil steam: 1400 lbs/Mwh

– New coal requires carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to comply

• Clean Air Act Section 111d – existing source CO2 emission 

standards (Clean Power Plan)

– Performance standards for existing fossil steam and combined cycle plants 

– Rate-based or mass-based targets

– Leakage from existing to new sources not permitted 

– Implemented in AEO2017 as a mass-based program covering new and existing 

sources, and met at the electricity region level 

Laura Martin 

Washington, DC, March 7, 2017
Current federal and state programs on emissions are 

explicitly represented

9

• Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), which was vacated in 

August 2012, has been reinstated to replace the Clean Air 

Interstate Rule (CAIR) (NOx and SO2) 

• Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) issued in December 

2011 are represented

– Requires 90% removal of uncontrolled mercury emissions

– Requires Flue Gas Desulfurization or Fabric Filter/Dry Sorbent Injection to 

control air toxics

• State/Regional Greenhouse Gas Regulations

– Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) – CO2 cap for 9 states in the 

Northeast, emissions limit typically not binding in EMM 

– California Senate Bill 32 (SB 32) – cap and trade program covering multiple 

sectors, includes emissions offsets and allowance allocations 

Laura Martin 

Washington, DC, March 7, 2017
The AEO2017 projections provide a Reference case 

and side cases to reflect areas of uncertainty

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Washington, DC, March 7, 2017 10

• The Reference case projection assumes trend improvement in known technologies, 

along with a view of economic and demographic trends reflecting the current central 

views of leading economic forecasters and demographers. It generally assumes 

that current laws and regulations affecting the energy sector, including sunset dates 

for laws that have them, are unchanged throughout the projection period. The 

potential impacts of proposed legislation, regulations, or standards are not reflected 

in the Reference case. 

• A case that assumes that the Clean Power Plan (CPP) is not implemented can be 

compared to the Reference case to show how that policy could affect energy 

markets and emissions.

• In the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, lower costs and higher 

resource availability than in the Reference case allows for increased levels of 

production at lower prices. In the Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, 

more pessimistic assumptions about resources and costs are applied.
Nuclear capacity retirements and new additions can vary 

depending on relative natural gas prices

Laura Martin 

Washington, DC, March 7, 2017 11

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Low Oil and Gas Resource 

and Technology case

High Oil and Gas Resource 

and Technology case

Nuclear electricity generating capacity

gigawatts

Reference case

No CPP case

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Delivered natural gas prices

2016 $/MMBtu

U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2017
Natural gas resource availability affects prices and plays a critical role

in determining the mix of coal, natural gas, nuclear, and renewable 

generation

Laura Martin 

Washington, DC, March 7, 2017 12

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2016

history projections

natural gas

coal

nuclear

Reference case

Electricity generation

billion kilowatthours

2020 2030 2040 2050

Low Oil and Gas Resource 

and Technology

renewables

2020 2030 2040 2050

High Oil and Gas 

Resource and Technology
EMM accounts for variability in plant level costs to project 

dispatch and retirement decisions

Laura Martin 

Washington, DC, March 7, 2017 13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000

Cumulative nuclear capacity

2016

2040

2050

Full going forward costs for nuclear plants

2016 $/MWh

U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2017
Operating costs relative to the marginal energy price, representing 

potential revenues, impacts model retirement decisions

Laura Martin 

Washington, DC, March 7, 2017 14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000

Cumulative nuclear capacity

2040 plant costs

National average marginal energy cost – Reference case

National average marginal energy cost – High Resource case

Dashed lines show marginal energy cost from lowest cost region in the respective cases

Full going forward costs for nuclear plants, 2040

2016 $/MWh

U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2017

Marginal energy cost, 2040

2016 $/MWh
For more information

Laura Martin 

Washington, DC, March 7, 2017 15

Assumptions Document | http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/index.cfm

Model Documentation | 

http://www.eia.gov/reports/index.cfm?t=Model%20Documentation

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo