U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Assumptions and Expectations for 

Annual Energy Outlook 2015: 

Oil and Gas Working Group

AEO2015 Oil and Gas Supply Working Group Meeting

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis

August 7, 2014 | Washington, DC

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Changes in release cycles for EIA’s AEO and IEO

• To focus more resources on rapidly 

changing energy markets and how 

they might evolve over the next few 

years, the U.S. Energy Information 

Administration is revising the 

schedule and approach for 

production of the International 

Energy Outlook (IEO) and the 

Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).

• Starting with IEO2013, which was 

released in July, 2013, EIA adopted 

a two-year production cycle for 

both the IEO and AEO.

• Under this approach, a full edition 

of the IEO and AEO will be 

produced in alternating years and 

an interim, shorter edition of each 

will be completed in the “off” years.

2015 2016

International 

Energy 

Outlook

Full Edition will be released 

in the spring 2015

Shorter Edition will be 

released in mid 2016, 

focusing on the liquids 

projection, which is used as 

part of the AEO2016. 

Summary tables and a short 

analysis will be included. 

Annual 

Energy 

Outlook

Shorter Edition will be 

released in late 2014 and will 

only include the Reference, 

Low and High Economic 

Growth, and Low and High Oil 

Price, and High Resource 

cases. The shorter version will 

include tables for these cases 

and short discussions. 

Full Edition will be released 

in spring 2016, including 

analysis of energy issues and 

many alternative scenarios. 

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 2
We welcome feedback on our assumptions and documentation

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 3

• The AEO Assumptions report 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/

• Appendix 2.C and Appendix 2.D in the AEO Documentation 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/nems/documentation/ogsm/

pdf/m063(2014).pdf

• We have restarted our working papers series 

http://www.eia.gov/workingpapers/

• And these working group meetings 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/
Overview

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 4

• What has changed and what we’ve learned: DPR analysis

• Most of the focus is on 

– NGPL production and ethane rejection

– Crude oil quality measured by API gravity

– Offshore discoveries and project start-up timing

– Exports as LNG and to Mexico

• New modeling innovation adds GIS based geologic 

dependency tools (prototype on the Marcellus play)

• World oil price outlooks based on updated resource and 

demand analysis
OGSM / Upstream

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 5
U.S. tight oil production – selected plays

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 6

tight oil production

million barrels of oil per day

Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through June 2014 and 

represent EIA’s official tight oil estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Eagle Ford (TX)

Bakken (MT & ND)

Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)

Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)

Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)

Delaware (TX & NM Permian)

Yeso & Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)

Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY)

Haynesville

Marcellus

Woodford (OK)

Granite Wash (OK & TX)

Austin Chalk (LA & TX)

Monterey (CA)
Data lags caused Permian drilling productivity to appear flat

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 7

Permian region

million barrels per day

Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14
Eagle Ford – Early changes to regional boundary caused errors, 

forecasts stabilized with steady drilling activity, incr. productivity 

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 8

Eagle Ford region

million barrels per day

Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14
Bakken – Changing completion techniques lead to mid-2013 

growth, ‘event’ related decline in Dec. 2013, trends intact

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 9

Bakken region

million barrels per day

Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14
NGPL

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 10
Improved representation of NGPLs significantly change NGPL 

production

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 11

• Refinement of NGPL factors for producing reservoirs inprogress

– Updated NGPL factors are based on data from EIA-64, 757, and 816 surveys 

• Reviewed and enhanced the algorithm associated with NGPL 

production

– NGPLs were being underreported in the past

• These changes will significantly change levels of NGPL 

production 
API gravity

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 12
-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2012 2013 2014 2015

API 50+

API 45-50

API 40-45

API 40-50 sweet

API 35-40 sweet

API 35-40 sour

API 27-35 med-sour

API 27-35 sour

California

API <27 sweet

API <27 sour

More than 60% of EIA’s production growth forecast for 2014 

and 2015 consists of sweet grades with API gravity of 40+

Annual change in U.S. crude oil production by type

million barrels of oil per day 

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Colorado DNR, Texas RRC. http://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/crudetypes/

forecast

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 13
EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil production will grow from an 

average of 7.4 million b/d in 2013 to 9.2 million b/d in 2015

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Alaska

Gulf of Mexico

N. Great Plains

West Coast

Rocky Mountains

Southwest

Midcontinent

Gulf Coast

Northeast

U.S. crude oil production 

million barrels of oil per day

Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2014

forecast

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 14
Lower 48 Offshore

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 15
Lower 48 offshore deepwater projects

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 16

BOEM Field 

name

Nickname Water 

depth

Field Size 

(MMBoe)

Discovery 

Year

Start Year of 

Production

AC865 GOTCHA' 7844 2006 2014

DC004 AXE' 5831 2010 2015

DC048 DALMATIAN' 5876 89 2008 2015

DC353 'VICKSBURG' 7457 372 2009 2019

GB427 'CARDAMOM' 2720 182 2010 2015

GB463 BUSHWOOD' 2700 89 2009 2015

GB506 DANNY II' 2800 89 2012 2013

GB515 'OZONA' 3000 89 2008 2013

GB605 'WINTER' 3400 45 2009 2015

GB782 'ENTRADA' 4690 372 2000 2014

GC432 'SAMURAI' 3400 89 2009 2017

GC468 STAMPEDE-PONY' 3497 372 2006 2015

GC512 STAMPEDE-KNOTTY HEAD' 3557 372 2005 2014

GC683 CAESAR/TONGA' 4457 45 2006 2013

GC726 'WEST TONGA' 4674 372 2007 2013

GC859 'HEIDELBERG' 5000 182 2009 2016

KC102 'TIBER' 4132 691 2009 2016

KC292 'KASKIDA' 5860 691 2006 2016

KC736 'MOCCASIN' 6759 372 2011 2018

KC872 'BUCKSKIN' 6920 182 2009 2018

KC875 'LUCIUS' 7168 182 2009 2014

KC919 'HADRIAN NORTH' 7000 372 2010 2020

KC964 'HADRIAN SOUTH' 7586 182 2009 2016

LL370 'DIAMOND' 9975 45 2008 2018

LL400 'CHEYENNE EAST' 9200 2010 2013

MC199 'MANDY' 2478 182 2010 2013

MC392 'APPOMATTOX' 7217 691 2009 2019
Lower 48 offshore deepwater projects (cont.)

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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BOEM 

Field name Nickname Water 

depth

Field Size 

(MMBoe)

Discovery 

Year

Start Year of 

Production

MC519 'SANTIAGO' 6526 2011 2013

MC562 'ISABELA' 6535 45 2007 2013

MC563 'SANTA CRUZ' 6515 2009 2013

MC725 TUBULAR BELLS' 4334 89 2003 2014

MC754 'ANDUIN WEST' 2696 45 2008 2015

MC762 'DEIMOS SOUTH' 3122 2010 2015

MC771 'KODIAK' 4986 182 2008 2016

MC792 'WEST BOREAS' 3112 182 2004 2016

MC948 'FREEDOM ' 6095 2008 2014

MC984 'VITO' 4038 182 2009 2016

SM217 'FLATROCK' 10 2007 2013

SM230 'DAVY JONES' 20 2010 2013

WR029 'BIG FOOT' 5235 182 2005 2015

WR052 'SHENANDOAH' 5750 182 2009 2017

WR508 'STONES' 9556 89 2005 2017

WR627 'JULIA' 7087 89 2007 2016

WR678 'ST. MALO' 7036 372 2003 2014

WR759 'JACK' 6963 372 2004 2014

WR848 'HAL' 7657 45 2008 2019

MC948 GUNFLINT' 6095 691 2008 2016

MC806 South Deimos' 3117 2010 2016

MC029 Cardona South 2014 2015

WC076 Tomcat 2014 2014

MC026 Amethyst 2014 2014

KC093 Gila 4900 2013

MC782 Dantzler 6580 2013

MC698 Big Bend 2012

AT063 Telemark Phase 2 2014

Troubadour 7273 2013
Geologic dependencies and GIS

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 18
For AEO2014 we added county level EUR estimates, but there 

can be considerable variation across individual counties. 

AEO2015 debuts GIS based geologic dependences for EURs 

with the Marcellus play as a prototype.

Source: Range Resources, Marcellus extent and Range Resources gas in-place outlines

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 19
Adding geology improves EUR estimate quality, offers higher 

resolution. Cautionary tale: some apparent great EURs 

(Wyoming Co.) fizzle when look at extent of geology

County Average 

EUR

Average 

EUR 

weighted

by GIP 

tier

ALLEGHENY 3.74 4.09

ARMSTRONG 0.91 2.72

BEAVER 2.74 2.44

BEDFORD 1.16 0.85

BLAIR 1.34 1.23

BRADFORD 5.70 3.94

BUTLER 1.74 2.72

CAMBRIA 1.46 2.43

CAMERON 0.33 2.69

County Average 

EUR

Average 

EUR 

weighted

by GIP 

tier

SUSQUEHANNA 6.14 4.92

TIOGA 2.98 2.49

UNION 2.80 0.30

VENANGO 0.83 2.49

WARREN 1.84 2.28

WASHINGTON 2.45 3.69

WAYNE 7.49 1.34

WESTMORELAND 1.85 2.84

WYOMING 8.85 3.42

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 20
Resource and technology assumption changes from Reference 

to High Resource case 

 Tight oil specific (L48) High Resource case

New plays ~57 billion barrels tight oil 

in plays not considered in 

the Reference case

Well spacing 100% more wells/area 

(50% reduction in acre

spacing)

Interference effects 

(diminishing returns)

IP rate increased 20%, but 

decline curve shifted to 

lower estimated ultimate 

recovery (EUR) to 80% of 

Reference once drill # of 

Ref case wells in county

Technology: 

production 

Well EURs 50% larger

1% increase/year with no 

end date

Other resources High Resource case

Offshore 50% increase in 

undiscovered resources

Alaska: tight oil plays Added 1.9 billion barrels

Alaska: undiscovered 

resources

50% increase in 

undiscovered resources

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 21

Development of Alaska North Slope shale oil 

production is not expected prior to 2040 

because:

• low expected shale oil well recovery rates

• high drilling, completion, and infrastructure 

costs

• reduced wellhead oil prices

• natural gas and frack water disposal costs
Looking back at AEO2014 

oil

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 22
U.S. crude oil production in three cases, 1960-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 23

0

5

10

15

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

crude oil production

million barrels per day

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

History 2012 Projections

High Oil and Gas Resource

Reference

Low Oil and Gas Resource
Domestic crude oil production by source in the Reference case, 1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 24

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

crude oil production

million barrels per day

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Total

Lower 48 onshore

Lower 48 offshore

Alaska

History 2012 Projections
Projected tight oil production in EIA’s three AEO2014 resource 

cases span the range of most other estimates 

0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

tight oil production

million barrels per day

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, and external forecasts

Reference

High Resource / Improved Technology

Low Resource

History 2012 Projections

25

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Net import share of U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption in 

five cases, 1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 26

0

25

50

75

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

net import share

percent

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

History 2012 Projections

High Oil Price

Reference

Low Oil Price

High Oil and Gas Resource

Low Oil and Gas Resource
Questions

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 27

• We plan to add additional detail to standard tables: 

– Drop AD gas, and add shale gas from tight oil plays (tables 14, 71, 72)

– Split offshore oil and gas production by state and federal (tables 14, 71, 72)

– Split Alaska onshore vs offshore (will require some assumptions on state lands 

vs federal)

– Add tables of API gravity by region?

– Other tables changes?
Tables

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 28

Table 14

Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) 

 United States Total

 Lower 48 Onshore

 Tight Oil 3/

 Carbon Dioxide Enhanced Oil Recovery

 Other

 Lower 48 Offshore

 Federal

 State

 Alaska

 Federal

 State

Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production

 United States Total

 Lower 48 Onshore

 Lower 48 Offshore

 Alaska

Natural Gas

Dry Production (trillion cubic feet) 4/

United States Total

 Lower 48 Onshore

 Associated-Dissolved 5/

 Non-Associated

 Tight Gas

 Shale Gas (and Tight Oil plays)

 Coalbed Methane

 Other

 Lower 48 Offshore

 Associated-Dissolved 5/

 Non-Associated

 Federal

 State

 Alaska

 Federal

 State

Table 71

Lower 48 Total Crude Oil Production

Lower 48 Onshore

 Northeast

 Gulf Coast

 Midcontinent

 Southwest

 Rocky Mountain

 West Coast

Lower 48 Offshore

Gulf

 Shallow (State) <200 meters

 Shallow (Federal) <200 meters

 Deep (Federal)

 Pacific

 State

 Federal

Atlantic 

 State

 Federal

Table 72

Lower 48 Total Natural Gas Production

Lower 48 Onshore

 Northeast

 Gulf Coast

 Midcontinent

 Southwest

 Rocky Mountain

 West Coast

Lower 48 Offshore

Gulf

 Shallow (State) <200 meters

 Shallow (Federal) <200 meters

 Deep (Federal)

 Pacific

 State

 Federal

Atlantic 

 State

 Federal
Oil price paths are higher than in AEO2014

29

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2014 (dashed lines)

WOPMEMO2015 draft (solid lines)

STEO May 2014 (orange diamonds)

High Oil Price

Reference

Low Oil Price

History 2013 Projections

Annual average spot price of Brent crude oil

2013 dollars per barrel (for the AEO2015 draft series)

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Liquids volumes in proposed AEO2015 cases are wider relative 

to AEO2014 cases

30

0

50

100

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2014 (dashed lines)

Proposed AEO2015 (solid lines)

Annual world liquids demand

mmbd

History 2013 Projections

High Oil Price

Low Oil Price

Reference

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Looking back at AEO2014

natural gas

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 31
U.S. natural gas production in three cases, 1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

natural gas production

trillion cubic feet

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

History 2012 Projections

High Oil Price

Reference

Low Oil Price
Total U.S. natural gas production in three cases, 1990-2040

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 33

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

natural gas production

trillion cubic feet

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

History 2012 Projections

High Oil and Gas Resource

Reference

Low Oil and Gas Resource
U.S. dry shale gas production

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 34

shale gas production (dry)

billion cubic feet per day

Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through June 2014 and 

represent EIA’s official shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Marcellus (PA & WV)

Haynesville (LA & TX)

Eagle Ford (TX)

Fayetteville (AR)

Barnett (TX)

Woodford (OK)

Bakken (ND)

Antrim (MI, IN, & OH)

Rest of US 'shale'
Shale gas leads U.S. production growth

U.S. dry natural gas production

trillion cubic feet

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Associated with oil

Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Shale gas

Alaska Non-associated offshore

Non-associated onshore

History 2012 Projections

billion cubic feet per day

35

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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NGTDM

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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U.S. natural gas consumption, supply, net exports in AEO2014 Reference Case

U.S. dry natural gas

trillion cubic feet per year

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections 2012

Consumption

Domestic supply

Net exports

100

75

50

25

0

-25

billion cubic feet per day

37

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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U.S. natural gas imports and exports

trillion cubic feet per year

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Alaska LNG exports

Pipeline exports to Mexico

Pipeline exports to Canada

Lower 48 states LNG exports

Pipeline imports from Canada

LNG imports

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference Case

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

billion cubic feet per day

5.4 tcf of exports

(14.8 bcf/day) 

2.0 tcf of imports

(5.4 bcf/day) 

U.S. natural gas gross exports (and imports) AEO2014 Reference case

History 2012 Projections

2025

38

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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U.S. net imports of natural gas by source in the AEO2014 Reference case 

39

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

natural gas net imports

trillion cubic feet

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Canada

LNG

Mexico

History 2012 Projections

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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Mexico consumption, production, imports to Mexico, AEO2014 and 

AEO2015 (preliminary)

40

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Consumption

Trillion cubic feet

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2014, preliminary AEO2015

Production

AEO2014 

AEO2015

LNG Imports

Pipeline Imports

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas in four AEO2014 cases

41

0

2

4

6

8

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

natural gas exports

trillion cubic feet

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

High Oil Price

High Oil and Gas Resource

Low Oil Price

History 2012 Projections

Reference

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, August 7, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Annual average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas in six AEO2014 cases

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

natural gas spot prices

2012 dollars per million Btu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

History 2012 Projections

High Economic Growth

Low Economic Growth

High Oil and Gas Resource

Reference

42

High Oil Price

Low Oil Price

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

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