U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Assumptions for Annual Energy Outlook 2015: 

Liquid Fuels Markets Working Group

AEO2015 Liquid Fuels Markets Working Group Meeting

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas & Biofuels Analysis

July 17, 2014 | Washington, DC

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Discussion topics

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, July 17, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 2

• AEO2015 is a “light” year (relative to design/assumption updates)

• Assumptions for AEO2015 - petroleum

• Assumptions for AEO2015 – biofuels/non-petroleum

• Export assumptions
AEO2015 is a “light” year

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, July 17, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 3

• In general, restricted to historical data updates and policy changes

• Design updates that help to better represent current events are 

allowed, with management approval

• Limited to five AEO cases

– Reference price case

– High and low price cases

– High and low economic cases
AEO2015 petroleum assumptions/changes

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, July 17, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 4

• Crude

– Light sweet crude (35+ API) broken into 3 API gravity ranges

• 35<=API<40

• 40<=API<50

• API>=50

– Modified crude sweet/sour sulfur split -- from 0.3% to 0.5%

– Updated historical crude exports to Canada to current levels

– Added the ability to represent crude exports, by API type and LFMM regions (optional)

– Revised methodology for by-grade crude price response

• Products

– Modified elasticities representing international product import and export curves (IEM) 

– Represented Tier-3 motor gasoline regulation

– Linked product import and export prices to crude prices

• Logistics

– Updated pipeline and rail capacities
AEO2015 biofuel/non-petroleum assumptions

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, July 17, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 5

• Cellulosic ethanol and pyrolysis: decrease nameplate capacity and 

revise overnight capital costs

• RFS: Planning no change from AEO2014

- Awaiting EPA release of final 2014 target volumes

- Direct Rule and Pathways II Final Rule set renewable fuel oil and biogas as cellulosiccompliant. Investigating methodology for representing new rules.

• E-15 penetration: Planning no change from AEO2014

• California LCFS: Planning no change from AEO2014

• BTL/CTL/GTL: Planning no change from AEO2014, awaiting results 

from non-petroleum process study to inform AEO2016
Crude/condensate export assumptions

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, July 17, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 6

• Recent BIS interpretation of regulations

– Enterprise/Pioneer processed condensate

– No BIS definition of condensate

• How should EIA represent the interpretation in AEO2015?

– Ignore, no crude/product exports (other than Canada)

– Permit some exports

• Condensate (need definition)

• API limit (what API gravity)

– Other suggestions
Contacts

7

John Powell: john.powell@eia.gov

Beth May: elizabeth.may@eia.gov

Michael Cole: michael.cole@eia.gov

Adrian Geagla: adrian.geagla@eia.gov

Next Working Group Meeting

Tentatively planned for September 16, 2014.

Will present preliminary AEO2015 results.

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, July 17, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
For more information

8 Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, July 17, 2014 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

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