U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

AEO2022 Buildings Working Group Meeting II

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

September 28, 2021 | Washington, DC

By

Buildings Energy Analysis group
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Overview

• AEO2022 results overview—delivered energy by fuel

• Comparison with AEO2021

– Model drivers

– Residential and commercial electricity and natural gas consumption

– Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs)

– Distributed generation

• EIA consumption survey updates

AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC

September 28, 2021 2
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2022 Results Overview

3 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Residential sector delivered energy consumption 

quadrillion British thermal units

Commercial sector delivered energy consumption 

quadrillion British thermal units

Electricity continues to be the fastest-growing energy source for 

building use in AEO2022

Source: AEO2022 preliminary

4 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CAGR 2021-2050

0.7%

-0.1%

-1.1%

-1.5%

electricity

natural gas

petroleum and other liquids

other 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0.6%

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%

CAGR 2021-2050
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Comparison with AEO2021

5 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Residential fuel prices

2020 $/MMBtu

Commercial fuel prices

2020 $/MMBtu

End-use fuel prices trends vary by sector

6 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021

Sources: AEO2022 preliminary, AEO2021

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

natural gas

electricity

AEO2022

AEO2021

AEO2022

AEO2021

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

natural gas

electricity

AEO2022

AEO2021

AEO2022

AEO2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

degree days

Heating and cooling degree days include NOAA historical data and 

short-term forecast, along with 30-year trend through projection period

Sources: AEO2022 preliminary, AEO2021 

Note: NOAA refers to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

7 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

cooling

AEO2021

AEO2022 

heating

AEO2021

AEO2022 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

total households

millions

Residential housing starts projected to increase after 2021

Sources: AEO2022 preliminary, AEO2021

8 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2022

AEO2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

commercial floorspace

billion square feet

Projected commercial floorspace grows at 1% per year as pandemic 

mitigation efforts ease

Sources: AEO2022 preliminary, AEO2021

9 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2022

AEO2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

residential purchased electricity consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

residential natural gas consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Recent and near-term consumption changes and more housing units 

drive residential energy use

Sources: AEO2022 preliminary, AEO2021

10 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2022

AEO2021

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2022

AEO2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

commercial purchased electricity consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

commercial natural gas consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Recent and near-term consumption changes and revised miscellaneous 

electric loads drive commercial energy

Sources: AEO2022 preliminary, AEO2021

11 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2022

AEO2021

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2022

AEO2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

residential television and related consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

residential computer and related consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Television, computer, and related equipment trends have changed a lot 

since 2013

Sources: AEO2022 preliminary, AEO2021

12 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2022

AEO2021

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2022

AEO2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

commercial computing consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

commercial office equipment consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

MELs report shows increased use of data center servers, while efficient 

video displays drive down non-PC office equipment energy use

Sources: AEO2022 preliminary, AEO2021

13 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2022

AEO2021

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2022

AEO2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2022

AEO2021

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2022

AEO2021

residential PV capacity

gigawatts-direct current (GW-DC)

commercial PV capacity

gigawatts-direct current (GW-DC)

Differences in electricity prices and historical system characteristics 

affect buildings PV projections

Sources: AEO2022 preliminary, AEO2021

14 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

EIA Energy Consumption Survey updates

• 2018 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS)

– Building characteristics data tables released last week; characteristics microdata will be 

released in November; consumption and expenditure data will be released in Spring/Summer 

2022

– 2018 CBECS data will make it into AEO2023 at the earliest

– 2018 CBECS will not capture long-term changes in commercial consumption caused by the 

pandemic (e.g., remote work, ventilation consumption); the AEO will capture such effects at 

the sector level from historical data and Short Term Energy Outlook forecasts

• 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)

– Some estimates will be available in all 50 states (for example, number of homes with AC in 

each state)

– Household characteristics data will be available in early 2022

15 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Buildings-related reports

• Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency 

• Analysis and Representation of Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) in NEMS

• Distributed Generation System Characteristics and Costs in the Buildings Sector 

• Modeling Distributed Generation in the Buildings Sectors

• Price Elasticities for Energy Use in Buildings of the United States

• Trends in Commercial Whole-Building Sensors and Controls

• Development of Commercial Building Shell Heating and Cooling Load Factors

• Residential and Commercial sector Energy Code Adoption and Compliance Rates

AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021 16
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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For more buildings information

Kevin Jarzomski | phone: 202-586-3208

| email: kevin.jarzomski@eia.gov

Courtney Sourmehi | phone: 202-586-0022

| email: courtney.sourmehi@eia.gov

Travis Freidman | phone: 202-586-????

| email: david.freidman@eia.gov

Erin Boedecker | phone: 202-586-4791

Team Lead | email: erin.boedecker@eia.gov

EIA is hiring! www.eia.gov/about/careers/

17 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration homepage | www.eia.gov

Buildings Working Group materials | www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/workinggroup/buildings

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

State Energy Data System | www.eia.gov/state/seds

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Residential Energy Consumption Survey | www.eia.gov/consumption/residential

Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey | www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial

International Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/international

AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021 18
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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Questions or comments

19 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 28, 2021