U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

AEO2013 Liquid Fuels Markets Working Group Meeting

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas & Biofuels Analysis

October 4, 2012 | Washington, DC

Preliminary AEO2013: 

Biofuels and Petroleum

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Overview

2

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

• World oil price path assumptions

• Liquid fuels demands

• Biofuels production and consumption

• Technology assessment update

• Petroleum product imports and exports
Oil price cases for AEO2013P compared to AEO2012 

3

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

annual average price of light, low sulfur crude oil

real 2011 dollars per barrel

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/01/12

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

High Oil Price

Reference

Low Oil Price

AEO2013P

AEO2012
AEO2013 projects lower U.S. transportation liquid fuels 

demand, compared to AEO2012 projections

4

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

million barrels per day

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/1/12

History Projections

10

12

14

16

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013P

AEO2012

CAFE Standards and LNG 

use in trucks
0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

U.S. reliance on imported liquid fuels is lower due to increased 

domestic production and greater fuel efficiency

5

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

million barrels per day

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/1/12

History 2005 2010 Projections

AEO2013P

AEO2012

Consumption

Production

60%

peak 50%

Net product & crude imports 40%
U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption by Source

6

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Million barrels per day

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/1/12

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Biofuels Imports

12%

18%

35%

34%

Biofuels (excluding imports)

Natural Gas Plant Liquids

Petroleum Supply

Net Crude Imports

47%

35%

12%

6%

2012
Fuel consumption changes, 2008-2015 and 2015-2040 

(thousand barrels per day)

7

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/1/12

-1600

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

 

2008-2015 2015-2040

BTL Biodiesel

Ethanol Unconv. Naptha

Unconv. Dist. Gasoline

Jet Fuel Distillate

Residual Fuel

Petroleum 

Fuels

CTL & GTL

Biofuels
0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U. S. Biofuels Production 

8

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

U.S. biofuels production million barrels per day

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/1/12

Cellulosic non-ethanol liquids

Starch ethanol (mostly corn)
Ethanol Consumption in E85 and E10/E15 Motor Gasoline Blends

9

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Billion gallons

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/1/12

AEO2013P

AEO2012

History Projections

Ethanol in E85

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

AEO2012 AEO2013 AEO2012 AEO2013 AEO2012 AEO2013

2011 2022 2040

Other Advanced

Biofuel RIN generation falls short of goal throughout projection

10

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

billions ethanol-equivalent gallons

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/1/12

Legislated RFS in 2022

Biomass-based diesel

imports

Cellulosic biofuels

Corn ethanol
California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)

11

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

• The California LCFS “will reduce greenhouse gas emissions 

by reducing the full fuel-cycle, carbon intensity of the 

transportation fuel pool used in California“, according to 

http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/CleanFinalRegOrder_020120

11.pdf

• The average carbon intensity (CI), measured in gCO2e/MJ, 

for mogas-related fuels and diesel-related fuels must 

decrease by 10% from 2010 to 2020 according to schedules 

published in the Regulation.

• Key drivers for LCFS projections in AEO2013:

– Availability of flex fuel vehicles, E85 penetration, electric vehicles, etc.

– Development of drop-in fuels

– Cost for non-compliance
The average Carbon Intensity of biodiesel in B20 required to 

meet LCFS targets is much lower than conventional soy biodiesel

12

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Carbon intensity

Grams CO2e per Megajoule

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Req'd avg Soyoil Tallow Corn Oil
The average Carbon Intensity of ethanol in E10/E85 required to 

meet LCFS targets is much lower than conventional corn ethanol

13

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Req'd avg ETHC001 ETHC035 ETHS002 Cell_1 Cell_2

Carbon intensity

Grams CO2e per Megajoule
AEO2013 Technology Parameters

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 14

Parameter Units of 

measure

Gas to 

liquids

Coal to 

liquids

Corn 

ethanol

Fame

Biodiesel

Renewable 

Diesel

Cellulosic 

ethanol

Biomass 

pyrolysis unit

Biomass

to liquids

Design location Gulf Mountain Midwest Midwest Gulf Midwest Great Lakes Midwest

Nameplate capacity b/d 34,000 50,000 6,523 1,305 2,000 3,700 1,374 3,143

Overnight capital cost $/bd $90,723 $160,301 $34,777 $31,933 $36,132 $148,189 $126,806 $263,068

Thermal efficiency Percent 55 46 53 95 99 49 40 51

Process yield bbl/unit 0.10 1.57 0.07 0.99 0.99 2.22 1.22 1.55

Capacity factor Percent 85 85 90 90 90 90 90 90

Economic lifetime Years 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Construction lead time Years 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
GTL Technology Parameters

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 15

Parameter Units of 

measure

AEO2012 Bechtel 

(2002)

Korea study 

(2009)2

RW Beck 

(2010) AEO2013

Nameplate capacity b/d 34,000 44,900 32,293 50,000 34,000

Overnight capital cost1 $/bd $76,610 $60,738 $88,013 $96,043 $90,000

Thermal efficiency % 54 55 84 58 55

Capacity factor % 85 ND ND 90 85

Economic lifetime Years 15 - - - 15

Construction lead time Years 4 - - - 4

Feedstock

 Natural gas MM 

scf/day 300 412 200 470 333

 Raw water gal/minute 13 ND ND

 N-Butane lb/h 3 ND ND

Products

 Gasoline b/d 9,690 17,000 3,958 15,176 10,320

 Diesel b/d 24,310 26,200 28,240 32,656 22,206

 Propane lb/h - 1,700 0 2,168 1,474

 CO2 tons/day - 4,084 - -

 Net Power kWh/bbl - 0.14 0 0.07 0.13

1. All costs escalated to 2011$ using CEPCI and U.S. labor costs.

2. Korea study overnight capital cost adjusted to reflect US construction labor conditions. 

3. ND = no data
GTL Production 

16

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

2010 2020 2030 2040

Reference Case High Oil Price Case

Low Oil Price Case 2012 High Oil Price Case

Million barrels per day

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/1/12
U.S. Petroleum Refinery Distillate Yields

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 17

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Reference Case

Percent of total feedstock throughput

Source: Preliminary AEO2013 runs, dated as of 10/1/12
U.S. Liquid Fuels Product Exports and Imports

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 18

• The U.S. is expected to remain a net exporter of product 

liquid fuels for the entire projection period

• Due to delays in completing new refining capacity in Latin 

America, U.S. product exports are expected to grow in the 

near future 

• Net motor gasoline imports will reflect a gradual decline, as 

higher efficiency vehicles begin to lead to lower gasoline 

consumption
EIA Projected Liquid Fuels Product Trade Balance 

(excluding biofuels)

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 19

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Imports Exports Net

Thousand barrels per day
EIA Projected Motor Gasoline Exports and Imports

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 20

Thousand barrels per day

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

MG Imports MG Exports Net
U.S. Liquid Fuel Products Imports (excluding biofuels)

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, October 4, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 21

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Petrochemical Feedstock Motor Gasoline

Distillate Unfinished Oils

Resid Jet Fuel

LPG_Other

Imported Petroleum Products

Thousands barrels per day
For more information

22

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Preliminary – Do Not Cite or Quote 

October 2, 2012