WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

August 11, 2017

MEMORANDUM FOR: Ian Mead

Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis

FROM: Jim Turnure

Director, Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis 

SUBJECT: Summary of AEO2018 Transportation Working Group held on Tuesday, 

August 8, 2017

The working group presentation provided discussion of the data and modeling updates expected for the 

AEO2018 Reference case, along with potential side case scenarios. These updates are included in the 

presentation materials provided as a separate document. 

Model updates

EIA staff presented anticipated updates in two separate categories:

 Historical data—bus and passenger rail travel, efficiency, and fuel use; truck, rail, and domestic 

maritime freight travel demands; light- and heavy-duty vehicle stocks; military fuel use; and 

recreational boating fuel use.

 Model—expansion of macroeconomic drivers and realignment of industrial and service 

groupings used in freight travel demand projections; addition of manufacturer Zero Emission 

Vehicle (ZEV) credit banking for light-duty vehicles; addition of autonomous vehicles, 

ridesharing, and carsharing into Reference case and scenarios.

Discussion

During the discussion, participants asked several questions related to both historical data and modeling 

updates.

Historical data updates

Participants asked about the reasons behind the differences in historical passenger bus and rail data. 

EIA staff explained how the data updates include additional datasets and changes in source reporting 

methodology. A follow-up question related to how EIA will use these new data to project school bus 

energy demand and if school district specific data are available for use to better estimate historical and 

projections of school bus demand. EIA staff expressed interest in using new data and techniques and

asked for references to any of these data that are available. 

Discussants asked for clarification on the level of disaggregation of data that EIA uses as a source for onroad vehicle stock updates, including both light- and heavy-duty. EIA staff answered that the original 

data are at the zip code level but are aggregated to nine U.S. Census Divisions. A related question asked 

how Class 2b trucks are modeled in NEMS. EIA staff indicated that Class 2b trucks are reported in the 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

fleet vehicle section of light-duty vehicles and fuel economy compliance is modeled with heavy-duty 

vehicles as part of the HD National Program Phase I and Phase II standards. 

Model updates

Most of the participant’s questions and related discussion centered on model updates, especially as it 

related to EIA’s planned inclusion of autonomous vehicles and shared mobility in both the AEO2018 

Reference case and potential Issues in Focus side cases. 

A question arose regarding what levels of vehicle automation will be considered, to which EIA staff 

responded that the primary focus of the analysis will be on the energy impact of Level 4 and 5 

autonomous vehicles. The goal at this stage is to think of the issues that might impact transportation 

energy demand and begin to quantify them, and this is expected to be a multiyear process.

Participants asked if and how EIA intends to incorporate endogenous factors and dynamics of 

autonomous vehicles and ridesharing, such as individual versus business use, rates of adoption, and the 

impact on sales. EIA responded that this is the start of a multiyear process of understanding and 

refining factors and dynamics affecting the transportation sector in more granularity as more data and 

analysis are available. EIA looks to modeling household and fleet use separately and will reach out to 

the transportation community for feedback on how to best model these and other elements.

Questions arose regarding how EIA will explore the impact of autonomous vehicles on public transit, 

vehicle sales, scrappage rates, or understanding mobility as a service. EIA staff discussed how this is the 

start of an analysis of these factors, including building and structuring models to include important 

determinants and assumptions in such a way as to allow deeper work over the next several Annual 

Energy Outlooks.

Discussants asked if and how EIA will include automated vehicles and ridesharing in the Reference case, 

or if analysis will only be in AEO2018 side cases. EIA staff explained that there will be inclusion in both

the AEO2018 Reference case and in side cases. The side cases will explore various levels of uncertainty 

surrounding important dynamics and assumptions. In response to a question of whether the Reference 

case will be a “no-autonomy” case, EIA staff expressed the view that analysis is still underway on how to 

incorporate autonomous vehicles into the Reference case, but we do not expect it to be a “noautonomy” case. A query as to details on the decision process for what will be included in the Reference 

case, EIA explained that this is a multiyear process and does not expect to include major changes this 

year but instead to start the process of modeling and analyzing important factors.

Participants asked the reason for EIA’s inclusion of autonomous vehicles in the Reference case and not 

exclusively in side cases for the AEO2018, to which EIA staff responded that it is important to include 

relevant technology and market factors that will impact transportation energy consumption in the 

Reference case.

Detailed questions followed requesting more specifics on what EIA intends to include in an automated 

vehicle and ridesharing analysis. Participants asked if EIA will include automated trucking and the 

impact of platooning. EIA staff described how they follow market news and dynamics and as 

information becomes available and will consider ways to include updates such as platooning, as this is 

touted as a potentially attractive option for heavy-duty vehicles. 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Another question related to EIA’s expectation of when driverless vehicles will be on the road in any 

number. EIA staff explained that this analysis is currently underway but do not yet have projections. A 

question arose regarding how EIA expects to model factors such as the impact on 2nd or 3rd vehicle 

ownership or the impact on vehicle miles traveled of autonomous vehicles and ridesharing. 

EIA staff answered that analysis includes as many micro factors as possible such as vehicle usage and 

vehicle miles traveled data at a vehicle level, including urban, suburban, and rural usage and by number 

of vehicles in the household. Participants asked how and if EIA will look at nexus between automated

vehicles and electric vehicles. EIA described how they will look into how automated vehicles and 

ridesharing could impact EV sales, and vice-versa, without explicitly looking at EV penetration as a cap 

on automated vehicles. 

Participants asked EIA about whether policies incentivizing autonomous vehicles or ride sharing will be 

included. EIA staff explained how only current laws and regulations will be included the analysis. 

Discussants requested that EIA accept suggestions on the nomenclature of terms used in its analysis of 

autonomous vehicles, ridesharing, and carsharing. EIA attendees reiterated that they seek and look 

forward to finding the clearest and most accurate descriptions of the technology and market.

A final section of questions related to EIA’s modeling of California and Section 177 States Zero Emission 

Vehicle (ZEV) mandates. Specifically, participants asked if ZEV mandate calculations interact with the 

Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. EIA staff answered that, yes, the impact of ZEV 

mandates, specifically the sale of electric vehicles, impacts the fuel economy performance of other 

vehicle fuel types in meeting CAFE standards. 

A follow-up question asked if EIA’s modeling of the ZEV mandates are based on existing regulation or is 

there consideration of additional mandates beyond 2025. EIA explained that only current laws and 

regulations are included in the Reference case, not proposed laws and regulations. Finally, participants 

asked if ZEV mandates are in the transportation models consumer and manufacturer choice routines. 

EIA staff responded that these mandates are included into these sections of the model.

Attendees

Guests (in person)

Alicia Birky Energetics

Sarah Garman DOE

David Gohlke DOE

Siddiq Khan ACEEE

James Kliesch Honda

Jennifer Li DOE

Rachael Nealer DOE

Kara Podkaminer DOE

Dennis Smith DOE

Tom White DOE

Guests (WebEx/phone)

Daniel Bizer-Cox EPA

Austin Brown UCDavis
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

John Davies DOT

Kevin Green DOT

Brianna Jean DOT

Ken Katz DOT

Christopher Ramig EPA

Tom Stephens ANL

Hideharu Takemoto Honda

Luke Tonachel NRDC

John Van Schalkwyk DOT

Frances Wood OnLocation

Yan Zhou ANL

EIA attendees (in person)

Nicholas Chase EIA

John Conti EIA

David Daniels EIA

Howard Gruenspecht EIA

Melissa Lynes EIA

John Maples EIA

Beth May EIA

Shirley Neff EIA

Mark Schipper EIA

Nicholas Skarzynski EIA

David Stone EIA

EIA attendees (WebEx/phone)

Mindi Farber-DeAnda EIA