Updated Buildings Sector 

Appliance and Equipment 

Costs and Efficiencies

January 2023

www.eia.gov

U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies i

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the 

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), prepared this report. By law, our data, analyses, and forecasts are 

independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government. The views in this 

report do not represent those of DOE or any other federal agencies.
January 2023

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies 1

Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and 

Efficiencies

Energy used in the residential and commercial sectors provides a wide range of services, including 

heating, cooling, lighting, refrigeration, cooking, and numerous other end uses. The U.S. Energy 

Information Administration (EIA) conducts two buildings-sector surveys—the Residential Energy 

Consumption Survey (RECS) and the Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS)—that 

provide information on the equipment stock and energy consumption within existing buildings. 

However, these surveys do not directly gather other information that we need to project future energy 

consumption, such as equipment cost information or nameplate efficiency ratings.

The Residential Demand Module (RDM) and the Commercial Demand Module (CDM) of the National 

Energy Modeling System (NEMS) use equipment cost and performance technology menus that 

represent competing options for most of the major end uses. The contracted reports in Appendixes A–D 

provide the information basis on which these menus can be built, focusing on cost and efficiency 

characterizations across equipment and fuel types. Previous editions of the Annual Energy Outlook

(AEO) used similar contracted reports.

Multiple equipment classes and types are represented in these menus so that the projected equipment 

stock can change over time in response to fuel prices and other factors that affect equipment choice, 

such as appliance standards. The equipment menus interact with other NEMS parameters to determine 

market shares, equipment efficiency levels, cost estimates, and equipment interactions,1and they are 

used to translate service demand into energy demand.

Appendixes A and B constitute one set of reports that characterizes most major residential equipment 

and commercial heating, cooling, and water heating equipment. Appendix A is used in developing 

Reference case projections, while Appendix B is used in developing advanced technology cases.2These 

assumptions were developed and implemented during the AEO2018 and AEO2019 cycles.

Appendixes C and D constitute another set of reports that characterizes residential and commercial 

lighting, as well as commercial ventilation and refrigeration equipment. Appendix C is used in developing 

the Reference case, while Appendix D is used in developing advanced technology cases. These 

assumptions were developed and implemented during the AEO2023 cycle.

When referencing the contracted reports in Appendixes A and B, you should cite them as reports by 

Guidehouse (formerly Navigant Consulting, Inc.), prepared for the U.S. Energy Information 

Administration. When referencing the contracted reports in Appendixes C and D, you should cite them 

as reports by Guidehouse and Leidos, prepared for the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

 

1 Examples of equipment interactions are solar water heaters that supplement traditional water heaters, clothes washers that 

reduce the need for clothes drying, and water heaters that provide dishwashers and clothes washers with heated water.

2

In addition to the Reference case, we also develop sensitivities to explore different assumptions for the cost and performance 

of future technologies. For the more optimistic cases, some equipment achieves lower life-cycle costs through improved 

efficiency or lower upfront costs, or both. The contracted reports provide a base case and an advanced case for modeling the 

AEO Reference case along with the more optimistic cases. We use the advanced case assumptions to develop side cases for 

AEO reports that include such analyses.
January 2023

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies 2

APPENDIX A
FINAL

EIA - Technology Forecast Updates –

Residential and Commercial Building 

Technologies – Reference Case

Presented to:

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Prepared by: 

Navigant Consulting, Inc.

1200 19 St. NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

April 2018
Review Draft

DISCLAIMER

This presentation was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States 

Government. Neither the United States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their 

employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, 

express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or 

usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use 

would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, 

process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily 

constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government 

or any agency, contractor or subcontractor thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed 

herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency 

thereof. 

April 2018

1
Review Draft

Objective 4

Methodology 5

Definitions 6

Market Transformation 7

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (North) 8

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (Rest of Country) 9

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces 12

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers 15

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers 18

Residential Electric Furnaces 21

Residential Electric Resistance Heaters 23

Residential Central Air Conditioners (North) 25

Residential Central Air Conditioners (South) 26

Residential Air Source Heat Pumps 29

Residential Ground Source Heat Pumps 33

Residential Room Air Conditioners 35

Residential Portable Air Conditioners 38

Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps 40

Residential Cordwood Stoves 42

Residential Pellet Wood Stoves 46

Residential Gas-Fired Water Heater 51

Residential Oil-Fired Water Heater 54

Residential Electric Resistance Water Heater 56

Residential Electric Heat Pump Water Heater 58

Residential Solar Water Heater 61

Residential Instantaneous Water Heater 63

Residential Refrigerator/Freezer (Top-Mount) 65

Residential Refrigerator/Freezer (Side-Mount) 66 

Residential Refrigerator/Freezer (Bottom-Mount) 67 

Residential Freezers (Chest) 71 

Residential Freezers (Upright) 72

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops 75

Residential Natural Gas Ovens 76

Residential Clothes Dryers (Electric) 79

Residential Clothes Dryers (Gas) 80

Residential Clothes Washers (Front-Loading) 83

Residential Clothes Washers (Top-Loading) 84

Residential Dishwashers 87

Page Page

Table of Contents
Review Draft

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces 90

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces 92

Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters 94

Commercial Electric Boilers 96

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers 98

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers 100

Commercial Centrifugal Chillers 102

Commercial Reciprocating Chillers 104

Commercial Screw Chillers 106

Commercial Scroll Chillers 108

Commercial Gas Fired Chillers 110

Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners 112

Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Driven Rooftop Air 

Conditioners 114

Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps 116

Commercial Ground Source Heat Pumps 118

Commercial Gas-Fired Water Heater 120

Commercial Electric Resistance Water Heater 123

Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater 126

Commercial Oil-Fired Water Heater 128

Commercial Electric Booster Water Heater 130

Commercial Gas-Fired Booster Water Heater 131

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heater133

Commercial Solar Water Heater 135

Commercial Gas Range with Griddle and Oven 137

Commercial Electric Range with Griddle and Oven138

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinet 140

Data Sources A-1

References B-1

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Table of Contents

Page
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4

The objective of this study is to develop baseline and projected 

performance/cost characteristics for residential and commercial 

end-use equipment.

• Installed base in 2012 (for commercial products) or 2009 and 2015 (for residential 

products) and current market (2017)

— Review of literature, standards, installed base, contractor, and manufacturer 

information.

— Provide a relative comparison and characterization of the cost/efficiency of a 

generic product.

• Forecast of technology improvements that are projected to be available through 2050

— Review of trends in standards, product enhancements, and Research and 

Development (R&D).

— Projected impact of product improvements and enhancement to technology.

Objective

The performance/cost characterization of end-use equipment developed in this 

study will assist EIA in projecting national primary energy consumption.
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5

Input from industry, including government, R&D organizations, and 

manufacturers, was used to project product enhancements concerning 

equipment performance and cost attributes.

• Technology forecasting involves many uncertainties.

• Technology developments impact performance and cost forecasts.

• Varied sources ensure a balanced view of technology progress and the probable timing 

of commercial availability.

• Only currently published efficiency standards and regulations are considered when 

predicting technology developments, unpublished future regulatory action is not 

predicted.

• All costs are shown in 2017 dollars (2017$).

• Ranges, when given, represent the span of typical values for a given parameter (e.g.. 

installed cost for equipment meeting the federal standard) not the highest and lowest 

available on the market. 

Methodology
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6

The following tables represent the current and projected efficiencies for residential and 

commercial building equipment ranging from the installed base in 2012 for commercial 

products (or 2009 and 2015 for residential products) to the highest efficiency equipment 

that is expected to be commercially available by 2050, assuming incremental adoption. 

Below are definitions for the terms used in characterizing the status of each technology.

• 2009/2012/2015 Installed Base: Efficiency values are for those units installed and “in use” 

in that year. Cost values are for the typical new unit sold in that year.

• 2017 Current Standard: the minimum efficiency required by current standards.

• Typical: the average, or “typical” product being sold in the particular timeframe. This 

may represent either the shipments-weighted average product performance or the most 

common product on the market.

• ENERGY STAR: the minimum efficiency required to meet the ENERGY STAR criteria, 

where applicable.

• Mid-Level: middle tier high-efficiency product available in the particular timeframe.

• High: the product with the highest efficiency available in the particular timeframe.

Definitions
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7

Market Transformation

The market for the reviewed products has changed since the analysis 

performed in 2013 and is reflected in the efficiency and cost 

characteristics.

• In some categories the typical new product purchased today is significantly more efficient than the 

average product in the installed base in 2012 (comm.) or 2015 (res.):

— Residential sector: central air conditioners and heat pumps, water heaters

— Commercial sector: gas-fired and oil-fired boilers, oil-fired storage water heaters

• More stringent Federal standards have taken effect for the following products:

— Residential furnaces in 2013 and 2015

— Residential room air conditioners in 2014

— Residential water heaters in 2015

— Residential central air conditioners, air-source heat pumps in 2015

— Residential and commercial water-source heat pumps in 2015

— Commercial oil-fired storage water heaters in 2015

• ENERGY STAR continues to raise the bar with revised criteria for:

— Residential furnaces in 2013

— Residential room air conditioners, central air conditioners, and central heat pumps in 2015

— Residential dishwashers in 2016

— Residential and commercial boilers in 2014 and 2016, respectively

— Residential and commercial water heaters in 2017 and 2013, respectively
Review Draft

8

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (North)

* Electric Consumption accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the furnace fan, draft inducer, and the ignitor. In some high 

efficiency products, this component also includes auxiliary equipment, such as condensate pumps and heat tape.

** Average life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). In the EERE 2015 TSD, a sensitivity analysis offers 16 to 27 

years as the low and high range of the product lifetime for gas-fired furnaces.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

(North)

High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

AFUE (%) 80 80 80 92 95 99 92 99 92 99 92 99 93 99

Electric Consumption 

(kWh/yr)* 548 522 470 470 384 418 322 334 322 334 322 334 317 334

Average Life (yrs)**

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 840 860 890 1,190 1,320 1,620 1,340 1,620 1,340 1,620 1,340 1,620 1,340 1,620

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 2,000 2,020 2,050 2,610 2,740 3,040 2,760 3,040 2,760 3,040 2,760 3,040 2,760 3,040

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
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9

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (Rest of Country)

* Electric Consumption accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the furnace fan, draft inducer, and the ignitor. In some high 

efficiency products, this component also includes auxiliary equipment, such as condensate pumps and heat tape.

** Average life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). In the EERE 2015 TSD, a sensitivity analysis offers 16 to 27 

years as the low and high range of the product lifetime for gas-fired furnaces.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

(South)

High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

AFUE (%) 80 80 80 80 90 99 80 99 80 99 80 99 80 99

Electric Consumption 

(kWh/yr)* 548 522 470 470 408 418 329 334 329 334 329 334 329 334

Average Life (yrs)** 

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 840 860 890 890 1,150 1,620 1,080 1,620 1,080 1,620 1,080 1,620 1,080 1,620

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 2,000 2,020 2,050 2,050 2,560 3,040 2,240 3,040 2,240 3,040 2,240 3,040 2,240 3,040

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Review Draft

• Current Federal standards for non-weatherized gas furnaces:

— AFUE ≥ 80%

• ENERGY STAR criteria for gas furnaces:

— South: AFUE ≥ 90%

— North: AFUE ≥ 95%

— Furnaces must be equipped with electronically commutated fan motor and have less than or equal to 2.0% air 

leakage

• Most efficient unit currently available: 98.7% AFUE. The current market is nearly evenly split between noncondensing units (AFUE≤82%) and condensing units (AFUE≥90%).

• The highest efficiency furnaces (~99% AFUE) employ electronically commutated motors (ECMs) and can fully 

modulate rather than cycling on and off. Because they modulate, there is an increase in total fan-on time. Because the 

fan operates for more total hours and consumes more energy, the annual electricity consumption is higher for these 

products

• Non-condensing AFUE levels for natural gas top out at around 82%; above this level, the potential for exhaust gas 

condensation increases. This condensate is corrosive and requires cost restrictive corrosion resistant venting.

• High-efficiency condensing furnaces typically have high-grade stainless steel (AL 29-4C) heat exchangers. 

• Many are available as direct vent and sealed combustion systems, which do not use room air for combustion, but 

instead draws combustion air directly from outdoors. 

• Depending on the location of the home, piping materials in use, and other considerations, condensing furnaces may 

need an acid neutralizer and/or lift pump for the condensate.

• Furnaces may contain permanent split capacitor (PSC) or brushless permanent magnet (BPM) fan motors. The 2015 

Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furnace Fans Final Rule requires that all furnaces use BPM fans. The 

type of motor effects the electrical consumption of the furnace as well as the SEER/EER of the associated air 

conditioner.

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11

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces

Annual shipments peaked at 3.5 million units in 2005 then declined 

each year until 2009 and leveled off at about 2.25 million units. Since 

2012, shipments have increased steadily.

Source: AHRI (http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Furnaces-Historical-Data.aspx) 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

12

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces

* Electric Consumption accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the furnace fan, draft inducer, and the ignitor. In some high 

efficiency products, this component also includes auxiliary equipment, such as condensate pumps and heat tape.

**Average Life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). The EERE 2015 TSD offers a Weibull distribution with an 

average value of 26.5 years and a 25%-75% confidence interval range of 19.7 to 33.1 years.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105

AFUE (%) 80 83 83 83 85 97 83 97 84 97 84 97 84 97

Electric Consumption 

(kWh/yr)* 490 477 477 477 466 410 477 410 472 410 472 410 472 410

Average Life (yrs)**

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)

2,150 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,250 2,700 2,200 2,700 2,250 2,700 2,250 2,700 2,250 2,700

2,350 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,950 3,450 2,900 3,450 2,950 3,450 2,950 3,450 2,950 3,450

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

2,700 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,950 4,350 2,750 4,350 2,750 4,350 2,750 4,350 2,750 4,350

3,400 5,500 5,500 5,500 5,750 8,550 5,500 8,550 5,700 8,550 5,700 8,550 5,700 8,550

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 70 70 70 70 70 200 70 200 70 200 70 200 70 200

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Current Federal standards:

— AFUE ≥ 83%

— ≤ 11 watts of electrical power when in standby and off modes (non-weatherized models only)

• ENERGY STAR criteria: AFUE ≥ 85%

• Since the latent heat content of oil is lower than that for either propane or natural gas, oil-fired 

appliances can typically operate at a higher AFUE rating than comparable gas-fired appliances 

before condensation issues arise.

• Most efficient currently available: 96.7% AFUE – condensing units with tiny market share (<1%), due 

to market acceptance issues. 

• Condensate from condensing oil furnaces is typically even more corrosive than that of gas-fired 

systems due to the higher sulfur content in fuel oil. Hence, condensing oil furnaces also likely 

require the use of an acid neutralizer. By 2019, ultra-low sulfur heating oil will be required in most 

northeastern states; this will reduce corrosion effects.

• Oil-fired furnaces, like gas-fired furnaces, achieve condensing conditions through the use of a 

secondary heat exchanger. Typically, these secondary heat exchangers use a high-grade stainless 

steel (AL 29-4C).

• Sooting is an issue for all oil-fired appliances, but secondary heat exchangers, with their narrow 

passages, are even more prone to be plugged by soot. Because of this, condensing oil furnaces 

typically require frequent cleaning and maintenance.

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Review Draft

14

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces

Annual shipments declined rapidly after 2004, likely due at least in 

part to an increase in fuel oil prices, which more than tripled from 

2002 to 2008. Since 2012 shipments have largely levelled off.

Source: AHRI (http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Furnaces-Historical-Data.aspx) 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

15

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers

*Average Life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). In the EERE 2015 TSD, an average of 26.5 years is calculated 

for gas-fired hot water boilers, with a low and high range from 20 to 30 years respectively.

** In 2021, new energy conservation standards for Residential Boilers will take effect. These projections reflect the 2021 minimum AFUE requirement for 

residential oil-fired boilers, 84%. However, by 2020, the majority of the gas-fired boiler market is expected to be condensing, with a minimum efficiency of 

90% AFUE.

Note: Water boilers considered. Steam boilers also exist, but make up only about 15% of the market.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 105 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

AFUE (%) 80 82 82 82 90 97 90 97 90 97 90 97 90 97

Average Life (yrs)*

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

2,050 1,950 1,950 1,950 2,750 3,750 2,750 3,750 2,750 3,750 2,750 3,750 2,750 3,750

2,650 2,550 2,550 2,550 3,250 4,300 3,250 4,300 3,250 4,300 3,250 4,300 3,250 4,300

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

4,100 4,600 4,600 4,600 5,750 6,800 5,750 6,800 5,750 6,800 5,750 6,800 5,750 6,800

4,700 9,750 9,750 9,750 10,000 11,050 10,000 11,050 10,000 11,050 10,000 11,050 10,000 11,050

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2017$) 50 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Federal standard for gas-fired hot-water boilers (more common than steam):

— AFUE ≥ 82% 

— Design requirements that took effect on September 1, 2012 prohibit a constant burning pilot and 

require an automatic means for adjusting water temperature

— AFUE ≥ 84% required on January 21, 2021

• ENERGY STAR criteria: AFUE ≥ 90%

• Most efficient available: 96.8% AFUE

• Have lost market share to furnaces and heat pumps over the past 30 years

• U.S. gas hot water boiler sales are split roughly 50/50 between condensing and non-condensing. 

Condensing boilers typically have heat exchangers made of stainless steel and non-condensing boiler 

typically have heat exchangers made of case iron.

• Typically, condensing boilers are low-mass in construction with modulating burners, variable-speed 

inducer fan systems, sealed powered direct-vent combustion, multiple sensor technologies, and 

electronic ignition and control.

• Due to incentives and market pressure, the U.S. boiler industry has been shifting towards also 

providing condensing boilers. Most of these boilers are private-labeled products sourced from 

Europe, where the hydronic market is much bigger and condensing appliances are much more 

common and/or required by law.

• Most value-added components for condensing boilers are sourced abroad, even when the 

condensing boiler is assembled in North America (e.g., heat exchanger, gas valve, burner, sensors, 

and/or controls).

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Review Draft

17

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents

Annual shipments had a significant decrease following the 2009 

financial crisis and a steady recovery in the years since.

Source: National Impact Analysis Spreadsheet from the 2015 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Boilers Final Rule. 

(https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EERE-2012-BT-STD-0047-0072)
Review Draft

18

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers

*ENERGY STAR levels were not examined in the EERE 2015 rulemaking, therefore ENERGY STAR retail costs were extrapolated from the non-condensing 

levels. All other costs are the same for non-condensing models.

**2017 High - EERE 2015 has analysis for 91% AFUE, maximum AFUE identified in the AHRI and CCMS databases at time of publication is 90%. There is 

only one condensing level within the EERE analysis so extrapolation to 90% cannot be done, therefore, cost values are those presented in EERE 2015 for 

91% AFUE.

*** Average Life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). In the EERE 2015 TSD, an average of 24.8 years is calculated 

for oil-fired hot water boilers, with a low and high range from 18 to 28 years respectively.

  In 2021, new energy conservation standards for Residential Boilers will take effect. These projections reflect the 2021 minimum AFUE requirement for 

residential oil-fired boilers, 86%.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** ** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR* High** Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140

AFUE (%) 80 84 84 84 87 90 84 90 86 90 86 90 86 90

Average Life (yrs)***

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

2,400 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,450 6,150 4,000 6,150 4,300 6,150 4,300 6,150 4,300 6,150

3,050 4,300 4,300 4,300 4,800 6,700 4,300 6,700 4,650 6,700 4,650 6,700 4,650 6,700

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

4,350 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,900 9,400 6,600 9,400 6,900 9,400 6,900 9,400 6,900 9,400

5,000 11,650 11,650 11,650 11,950 13,500 11,650 13,500 11,950 13,500 11,950 13,500 11,950 13,500

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2017$) 140 140 140 140 140 150 140 150 140 150 140 150 140 150

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Federal standard for oil-fired hot-water boilers (more common than steam):

— AFUE ≥ 84% 

— Design requirements that took effect on September 1, 2012 require an automatic 

means for adjusting water temperature

— AFUE ≥ 86% required on January 21, 2021

• ENERGY STAR criteria: AFUE ≥ 87%

• Most efficient available: 90% AFUE

• Since the latent heat content of oil is lower than that for either propane or natural gas, 

oil-fired appliances can typically operate at a higher AFUE rating than comparable gasfired appliances before condensation issues arise.

• Oil boilers have heat exchangers made of cast iron or stainless steel. 

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Review Draft

20

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents

Annual shipments declined rapidly after 2004, likely due at least in 

part to an increase in fuel oil prices, which more than tripled from 

2002 to 2008. Since 2009 shipments have largely levelled off.

Source: National Impact Analysis Spreadsheet from the 2015 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Boilers Final Rule. 

(https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EERE-2012-BT-STD-0047-0072)
Review Draft

21

Residential Electric Resistance Furnaces

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 68 68 68 68 68 68 68

AFUE (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (yrs) 

15 15 15 15 15 15 15

30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 

600 600 600 600 600 600 600

700 700 700 700 700 700 700

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 

1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1000

1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1200

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Federal standards for electric furnaces:

— AFUE ≥ 78%

— Standby and off mode power consumption ≤ 10 watts

• According to RECS 2015 data, electric central warm-air furnaces are the main source of 

space heating in approximately 17.9 million US homes or about 15%. The majority of 

these installations are part of a heat pumps system, where the electric resistance is used 

as back-up heating.

• Electric furnaces range in capacity from 10 to 25 kW (34 to 85 kBtu/hr), with 20 kW (68 

kBtu/hr) being the typical for units on the market.

• Electric resistance furnaces are considered near 100% efficient because there is no flue 

heat loss and any jacket losses are contained within the home. 

— ASHRAE Standard 103, the test method for furnaces incorporated by reference into 

the federal test procedure, specifies that for electric furnaces AFUE = 100 – 1.7 x 

jacket losses. Jacket losses can be determined either through testing or assumed to 

be 1%. Thus, the minimum AFUE of electric furnaces is 98.3%.

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Review Draft

23

Residential Electric Resistance Unit Heaters

* Assumes similar lifetime to Electric Furnaces on the basis that both products have heating elements that burn out and lead to product failure. 

** Annual Maintenance Cost is negligible

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Efficiency (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Average Life (yrs)*

15 15 15 15 15 15 15

30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 

75 75 75 75 75 75 75

200 200 200 200 200 200 200

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 

125 125 125 125 125 125 125

275 275 275 275 275 275 275

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) ** - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Electric resistance unit heaters include electric wall and baseboard heaters. Plug-in 

space heaters are not included.

• There are currently no federal efficiency requirements for electric resistance unit 

heaters.

• According to RECS 2015 data, electric resistance unit heaters are the main source of 

space heating in approximately 8.9 million US homes or about 8%. 

• Electric heaters range in capacity from 500 to 2,500 watts (1.7 to 8.5 kBtu/hr), with 1,000 

watts (3.5 kBtu/hr) being the most typical for units on the market.

• Electric resistance heaters are considered near 100% efficient because there is no heat 

loss through ducts or combustion. An efficiency of 98% is selected here to account for IR 

losses and fan inefficiency.

24

Residential Electric Resistance Unit Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

25

Residential Central Air Conditioners

North (Not Hot-Dry or Hot-Humid)

* Values shown are for split-system units in the 36 kBtu/h (3-ton) size class. Costs and efficiency levels are for ducted "coil-only" systems, meaning they 

do not include a blower. Note blower-coil systems were analyzed for Residential Air Source HP, which is why the "High" SEER levels are higher for HPs 

than for ACs.

** In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps will take effect. The new standards specify a 

different metric for Central ACs (SEER2). These projections reflect the equivalent levels for the 2023 standard under the current metric, 14 SEER.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

SEER* 11.4 12.5 13.0 13.9 15.0 16.5 13.9 16.5 14.4 16.5 14.4 16.5 14.4 16.5

Average Life (yrs)

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 1,750 2,050 2,200 2,250 2,650 3,200 2,250 3,200 2,350 3,200 2,350 3,200 2,350 3,200

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$) 2,150 3,400 3,550 3,650 4,000 4,650 3,650 4,650 3,700 4,650 3,700 4,650 3,700 4,650

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

26

Residential Central Air Conditioners

* Values shown are for split-system units in the 36 kBtu/h (3-ton) size class. Costs and efficiency levels are for ducted, “coil-only" systems, meaning they 

do not include a blower. Note blower-coil systems were analyzed for Residential Air Source HP, which is why the "High" SEER levels are higher for HPs 

than for ACs.

** In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps will take effect. The new standards specify a 

different metric for Central ACs (SEER2). These projections reflect the equivalent levels for the 2023 standard under the current metric, 15 SEER.

South (Hot-Dry and Hot-Humid)

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

SEER* 11.4 13.0 14.0 14.4 15.0 16.5 14.4 16.5 15.1 16.5 15.1 16.5 15.1 16.5

Average Life (yrs)

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 1,750 2,200 2,250 2,350 2,650 3,200 2,350 3,200 2,700 3,200 2,700 3,200 2,700 3,200

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 2,150 3,600 3,650 3,700 4,000 4,650 3,700 4,650 4,100 4,650 4,100 4,650 4,100 4,650

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

27

Residential Central Air Conditioners

Residential Central Air 

Conditioner Product Class

Current Standards Current ENERGY STAR 

Criteria

Min. SEER 

in North

Min. SEER 

in South

Max. Off 

Mode 

Power (W)

Min. SEER Min. EER

Split-System AC 13 14 30 15 12.5

Single-Package AC 14 14 30 15 12

Small-Duct, High-Velocity 12 12 30 – –

Space-Constrained 12 12 30 – –

• Current standards, which took effect in 2015, represent an improvement in efficiency in 

all regions from 13 SEER for single-package units.

• Current standards in the South and Southwest represent an improvement in efficiency 

from 13 SEER for split systems.

• Systems installed in the Southwest (CA, AZ, NM, and NV) also have to meet an energy 

efficiency ratio (EER) standard that varies by cooling capacity and system configuration.

• Current standards took effect in 2015, amended standards for all product classes will 

take effect in 2023.

• Small-Duct, High-Velocity and Space-Constrained units both have very small market 

shares

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Annual shipments spiked at 6.5 million units in 2005 at the peak of 

the housing boom and just before more stringent Federal standards 

took effect in 2006. Annual shipments have been steadily increasing 

since 2010 but have not yet reached the previous high.

28

Residential Central Air Conditioners

Source: AHRI (available at http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Central-AirConditioners-and-Air-Source-Heat-Pumps.aspx)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

29

Residential Air Source Heat Pumps

* Values shown are for split-system units in the 36 kBtu/h (3-ton) size class which represent the largest market share based on 2016 Energy Conservation 

Standards for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps, Government Regulatory Impact Model. Costs and efficiency levels are for ducted systems with 

integral indoor blowers. Note coil-only systems were analyzed for Residential Central AC North and South, which is why the "High" SEER levels are 

higher for HPs than for ACs.

**In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps will take effect. The new standards specify 

different metrics (SEER2 and HSPF2). These projections reflect the equivalent levels for the 2023 standard under the current metrics, 15 SEER and 8.8 

HSPF.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

SEER (Cooling)* 12.0 13.1 14.0 15.3 15.0 19.0 15.3 19.0 15.8 19.0 15.8 19.0 15.8 19.0

HSPF (Heating)* 7 .0 7.9 8.2 8.6 8.5 9.0 8.6 9.0 8.8 9.0 8.8 9.0 8.8 9.0

Average Life (yrs)

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)* 2,550 2,800 3,350 3,600 3,500 4,550 3,600 4,550 3,700 4,550 3,700 4,550 3,700 4,550

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)* 3,000 3,250 4,850 5,100 4,950 6,100 5,100 6,100 5,150 6,100 5,150 6,100 5,150 6,100

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• High efficiency cooling does not necessarily correlate with high efficiency heating. The 

range of SEER–HSPF combinations is very broad.

• Heat pumps are generally sized to meet the cooling load of the house. When the heating 

load exceeds heat pump heating capacity, electric resistance heat is used to supplement.

• Variable-speed compressors improve efficiency of heat pumps by reducing cyclic losses 

and by operating above their nominal speed, boosting heating capacity and reducing 

the need for supplementary electric resistance heat.

• Current standards took effect in 2015, amended standards for all product classes will 

take effect in 2023.

30

Residential Air Source Heat Pumps

Residential Heat 

Pump Product Class

Current Standards Current ENERGY STAR Criteria

Min. 

SEER

Min. 

HSPF

Max. Off 

Mode 

Power (W)

Min. 

SEER Min. EER Min. 

HSPF

Split-System 14 8.2 33 15 12.5 8.5

Single-Package 14 8 33 15 12 8.2

Small-Duct, HighVelocity 12 7.2 30 – – –

Space-Constrained 12 7.4 33 – – –

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

From 2000 to 2005 annual shipments increased nearly 60% to 2.1 

million units, then dropped and leveled off around 1.7 million units. 

In 2014 annual shipments surpassed the 2005 peak.

31

Residential Air Source Heat Pumps

Source: AHRI (available at http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Central-AirConditioners-and-Air-Source-Heat-Pumps.aspx)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

32

Residential Central Air Conditioners and Air Source Heat Pumps

• Principal energy efficiency drivers for central air conditioners and heat pumps :

— Heat exchanger (surface area, number of tube rows)

— Compressor (type and single-stage vs. two-stage vs. variable-speed operation)

— Fan motor choices (PSC vs. ECM fan motors on inside and outside)

— Control choices (i.e., piston, thermal, and electronic expansion valves)

• When the heat pump or air conditioner’s capacity exceeds the heating or cooling load, 

the unit starts and stops more frequently, causing wear and tear on the components and 

an overall loss of efficiency. Multi-stage and/or variable-speed compressors can help, as 

does sophisticated refrigerant management.

• Typical high-efficiency unit (≥16 SEER) has very large heat exchanger, ECM evaporator 

fan motor, and two-stage scroll compressor.

• Variable-speed compressor technology typically leads to a significant SEER boost, 

making possible high-SEER condensing units with smaller heat exchangers, and thus, 

smaller enclosures.

• Efficiency levels >21 SEER made possible through combining existing large heat 

exchangers with variable-speed compressors, ECM fan motors, and electronic 

expansion valves.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

33

Residential Ground Source Heat Pumps

* COP values listed are assessed at a "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, DOE sets 

standards at a "water loop" test condition. The AHRI directory lists COP ratings at both sets of test conditions and is used to convert between them where 

necessary. 

** EER values listed are assessed at a full-load "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, 

DOE sets standards at a full-load "water loop" test condition. Previous analysis relied on Energy Star ratings which are an average of the full-load and partload "ground loop" conditions. The AHRI directory lists EER ratings at all sets of test conditions and is used to convert between them where necessary.

Note: Residential and commercial GSHPs are very similar - the main difference in data presented is the different capacity (3-ton vs 4-ton) and slightly 

higher installation costs for commercial. DOE does not distinguish between residential and commercial units in its regulations.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

COP (Heating)* 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.6 4.5 3.7 4.5 3.7 4.5 3.7 4.5 3.7 4.5

EER (Cooling)** 12.3 13.3 14.1 17.3 17.1 22.4 17.3 22.4 17.3 22.4 17.3 22.4 17.3 22.4

Average Life (yrs)

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 6,200 3,950 4,100 4,650 4,600 5,550 4,650 5,550 4,650 5,550 4,650 5,550 4,650 5,550

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

18,100 11,950 12,100 12,650 12,650 13,550 12,650 13,550 12,650 13,550 12,650 13,550 12,650 13,550

20,650 18,950 19,100 19,650 19,650 20,550 19,650 20,550 19,650 20,550 19,650 20,550 19,650 20,550

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2017$) 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75
Review Draft

• There are currently over 20 ground source heat pump manufacturers/OEMs in the US.

• Heating COP does not correlate with cooling EER (coefficient of determination, R2 = 0.59 for 

ENERGY STAR certified products). The highest efficiency GSHP is the 7 Series by WaterFurnace 

International, Inc. (41 EER & 5.3 COP). Note that these are equipment-level thermal ratings tested 

according to standardized lab conditions and do not necessarily represent system-level or "realworld" performance.

• The ENERGY STAR® criteria for water-to-air ground source heat pumps are:

• The most common ground source heat pump is a closed-loop system in which water or an antifreeze solution is circulated through plastic pipes buried underground. Open loop systems that 

employ ground water or surface water (e.g., open well, pond, lake) are used in some parts of the 

country, but water supply and water quality issues impose limitations on such applications.

• Installation cost is for a closed loop system and includes necessary accessories. The ground loop 

heat exchanger represents a majority of the installation cost. Installed costs for these systems vary 

widely. 

• Variable speed electronically commutated motors (ECMs) improve performance on high end 

models.

34

Residential Ground Source Heat Pumps

Type Heating 

COP

Cooling 

EER

Closed Loop 3.6 17.1

Open Loop 4.1 21.1

Direct Expansion 3.6 16

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

35

Residential Room Air Conditioners

* All values are for the most common product class, Product Class 3 (without reverse cycle, with louvered sides, and 8,000 to 13,999 Btu/h).

** Maintenance costs are negligible.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity 

(kBtu/hr)* 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5

CEER (Btu/Wh) 9.3 10.9 10.9 12.0 12.0 12.3 12.0 12.5 12.3 13.0 12.5 13.5 12.5 13.5

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

480 470 470 510 510 510 510 510 510 510 510 510 510 510

580 600 600 600 600 730 600 730 600 730 600 730 600 730

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

550 540 540 580 580 580 580 580 580 580 580 580 580 580

680 700 700 700 700 830 700 830 700 830 700 830 700 830

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)** - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Focus on most common type: louvered sides (window air conditioners) without reverse cycle 

and having cooling capacity of 8,000–13,999 Btu/h (DOE Product Class 3).

• Federal standards for Product Class 3:

— CEER ≥ 10.9 (beginning June 1, 2014)

• Combined Energy Efficiency Ratio (CEER) incorporates energy use in cooling mode and 

standby and off modes.

• Of the 474 individual models in Product Class 3 listed in DOE’s compliance certification 

database1:

— 42% are at the standard level (≥ 10.9 CEER, < 12.0 CEER)

— 58% are at the ENERGY STAR level (≥ 12.0 CEER)

— Most efficient model is at 12.3 CEER

• ENERGY STAR criteria for Product Class 3

— CEER ≥ 12.0 (effective October 26, 2015)

• Most efficient product in 2030: 13.1 CEER, based on Building Technologies Program R&D2.

• Efficiency improvements are attained by:

— Higher efficiency compressor and fan motors, and

— An increased heat transfer area in the evaporator and condenser through the use of larger 

heat exchangers, finer fin spacing, micro-channel heat exchangers, and similar design 

options.

36

Residential Room Air Conditioners Return to Table of Contents

1. Accessed December 2017. https://www.regulations.doe.gov/certification-data

2. ORNL. High Efficiency Room Air Conditioner. http://info.ornl.gov/sites/publications/files/Pub53922.pdf
Review Draft

Annual shipments dropped sharply in 2009, likely due to the 

recession and an unusually cool summer in the Northeast. Sales 

have largely leveled off in the years since, fluctuating between 6 

and 7.5 million.

37

Residential Room Air Conditioners

Source: Appliance Magazine.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

38

Residential Portable Air Conditioners

* All values are for the average capacity for single-duct and dual-duct portable ACs available on the market.

** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note: In December of 2016 EREE issued a final rule titled Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Portable Air

Conditioners. As of October 2017, this rule has not yet been published and therefore these standards are not reflected in the values shown above.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr)* 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6

CEER 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.7 5.6 6.7 5.6 6.7 5.6 6.7 5.6 6.7

Average Life (yrs)

7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 720 690 670 800 670 800 670 800 670 800 670 800

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 720 690 670 800 670 800 670 800 670 800 670 800

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)** - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• A new test procedure for portable ACs was published June 1, 2016

• The test procedure addresses single-duct and dual-duct portable ACs, configurations 

typically used in residential applications. No procedures were established for other 

portable AC configurations (e.g., spot coolers).

• Spot coolers, a portable AC configuration with no condenser-side ducts and with 

adjustable evaporator exhaust ducts, are commonly used in commercial applications.

• A final rule, Energy Conservation Standards for Portable Air Conditioners, was issued 

in December 28, 2016 to address standards for single-duct and dual-duct portable ACs. 

It never published, so there are no existing energy conservation standards for portable 

ACs.

• The final rule outlined an equation-based conservation standard (in CEER) for both 

single-duct and dual-duct portable ACs, based on the seasonally adjusted cooling 

capacity (SACC).

• For a typical portable AC in 2017 with a capacity of 6,600 Btu/h, the corresponding 

CEER is typically 4.3 Btu/Wh.

• Efficiency improvements are attained by:

— Higher efficiency compressor and fan motors, and

— An increased heat transfer area in the evaporator and condenser through the use of 

larger heat exchangers, finer fin spacing, micro-channel heat exchangers, and 

similar design options.

39

Residential Portable Air Conditioners Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

40

Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

Heating (COP) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Cooling (COP) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Annual Electric Use (kWh/yr)* 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12

18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000

12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500

14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 170 170 170 170 170 170 170

Return to Table of Contents

* Annual Electric Use accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the heat pump fan.
Review Draft

• Residential Gas Heat Pumps are not currently covered by NAECA. CEC Title 24, Part 6 

Section 112 does indicate cooling efficiency requirements for gas heat pumps.

• Gas heat pumps are much more popular in other parts of the world, such as Europe. 

Gas-fired cooling equipment currently comprises less than 1% of the residential air 

conditioning/heat pump market in the U.S. 

• Currently, Robur is the predominant manufacturer of residential-sized gas heat pumps 

with sales operations in the US. Robur units are 5-ton nominal cooling capacity, a size 

typically associated with larger homes. Since only one product is available, no mid-level 

or high efficiency categories are included. 

• The data represents air-source absorption heat pumps. Gas engine-driven vapor 

compression heat pumps are available in other parts of the world; York formerly offered 

the Triathlon gas engine-driven heat pump in the US. It is possible to couple either 

technology to the ground (ground source) rather than the atmosphere (air source).

• The absorption heat pump is a gas-fired, ammonia-water absorption cycle, combined 

with a high-efficiency low-pressure boiler integrated into one outdoor unit.

• The cooling efficiency of a gas-fired air source absorption heat pump is considerably 

lower than for an electric air source heat pump. Heating efficiency of an air source heat 

pump (electric or gas-fired absorption) decreases as outdoor temperature decreases; 

however the gas-fired absorption heat pump recovers waste heat from the combustion 

process to improve heating efficiency.

41

Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

42

Residential Cordwood Stoves

* EPA Certified Default Level no longer listed here because 2015 EPA rule requires that manufacturers test and report the efficiency of their stoves 

and, therefore, manufacturers no longer have the option to report the default value.

** Efficiency includes combustion and heat transfer efficiency and is based on the higher heating value (HHV) of the fuel.

*** Installed cost includes cost of hearth and stainless steel chimney liner - materials and labor.

**** Annual maintenance cost of catalytic stove includes periodic cost of replacing the catalytic combustor.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical* High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Efficiency (Non-Catalytic) (HHV)** 58 63 70 76 70 77 73 78 74 79 75 80

Efficiency (Catalytic) (HHV)** 68 72 78 84 78 84 81 85 82 86 83 87

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 

(Non-Catalytic) 2,400 2,450 2,450 2,650 2,450 2,650 2,550 2,750 2,650 2,850 2,750 2,950

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 

(Catalytic) 3,300 3,000 3,000 3,200 3,000 3,200 3,100 3,300 3,200 3,400 3,300 3,500

Total Installed Cost (2017$) (NonCatalytic) 7,000 7,050 7,050 7,250 7,050 7,250 7,150 7,350 7,250 7,450 7,350 7,550

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 

(Catalytic) 7,900 7,600 7,600 7,800 7,600 7,800 7,700 7,900 7,800 8,000 7,900 8,100

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 

(Non Catalytic) 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 

(Catalytic) 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Residential cordwood stoves that must meet EPA particulate limits fall into two broad 

classes based on whether or not they use a catalyst for air treatment. Catalytic wood 

stoves use a catalytic combustor to reduce emissions from the combustion air. Noncatalytic wood stoves use baffles and introduce secondary air above the flames to enable 

more complete combustion and reduce emissions. 

• In 2015, EPA published an update to its New Source Performance Standards (NSPS), 

decreasing the emissions limit (previously set by 1988 EPA rule) to 4.5 g/hr for both 

catalytic and non-catalytic stoves. The new rule did not institute efficiency standards, 

but required that manufacturers test and certify the efficiency of their stoves. This 

standard took full effect on January 1, 2016.

• The 2015 EPA rule stipulates that, in 2020, emissions requirements for wood stoves will 

be lowered to 2.5 or 2.0 g/hr (depending on the test method used). 

• Prior to the 2015 rule, manufacturers could either submit efficiency data from laboratory 

testing or certify with the default efficiency value designated by EPA. EPA’s default 

efficiency values were 63% for non-catalytic wood stoves and 72% for catalytic wood 

stoves. Under this system, few manufacturers submitted efficiency test data to EPA.

• Some states still have emissions requirements that are more stringent than the EPA’s 

standard (e.g., Washington).

• EPA notes in its 2015 rule that efficiency requirements may be included in a future 

rulemaking.

43

Residential Cordwood Stoves Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• A federal tax credit for efficient wood stoves was offered from 2009 to 2016 and 

retroactively for 2017. Some states offered tax credits through 2017 (e.g., Oregon).

• Multiple test standards are commonly used to assess stove efficiency and data from 

product literature does not generally identify the efficiency test method. It’s not possible 

to determine performance trends based on construction or configuration (e.g., cast iron 

vs. plate steel, powered blowers vs. no blowers, etc.) trends in specific equipment type 

or construction based on published efficiencies. Further, EPA certification data shows 

no significant relationship between emissions and heating efficiency.

• Cordwood stoves require chimneys for venting combustion gases. Whether 

conventional masonry chimneys are used or metal chimney liners, these add 

considerable cost to the overall system. Accordingly, installed costs can be twice that of 

the wood stove itself. 

44

Residential Cordwood Stoves Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

45

Residential Cordwood Stoves

Source: HPBA, no post-2012 sales data was publicly available at time of publication.

Cordwood stove shipments have averaged 123,000 per year since 1999 

and have fluctuated roughly in accordance with fuel oil costs.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

46

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves

* EPA Certified Default Level removed because 2015 EPA rule requires that manufacturers test and report the efficiency of their stoves. 

Therefore, manufacturers no longer have the option to report the default value.

** Efficiency includes combustion and heat transfer efficiency and is based on the higher heating value (HHV) of the fuel.

*** Installed cost includes cost of hearth and vent pipe - materials and labor.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Efficiency (HHV) 65 70 76 87 76 87 77 87 78 88 79 89

Annual Electricity 

Consumption (kWh) 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 3,300 3,300 3,300 4,000 3,300 4,000 3,400 4,000 3,500 4,100 3,600 4,200

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 4,700 4,700 4,700 5,400 4,700 5,400 4,800 5,400 4,900 5,500 5,000 5,600

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• In 2015, EPA published an update to its New Source Performance Standards (NSPS), 

limiting emissions for wood pellet stoves to 4.5 g/hr. Prior to the 2015 EPA rule, most 

pellet stoves were exempt from EPA’s NSPS requirements. The new rule did not

institute efficiency standards, but required that manufacturers test and certify the 

efficiency of their stoves. This standard took full effect on January 1, 2016.

• The 2015 EPA rule stipulates that, in 2020, emissions requirements for wood stoves will 

be lowered to 2.5 or 2.0 g/hr (depending on the test method used). 

• EPA notes in its 2015 rule that efficiency requirements may be included in a future 

rulemaking.

• Prior to the 2015 rule, manufacturers could either submit efficiency data from laboratory 

testing or use a default efficiency value designated by EPA (78% for pellet stoves). 

Under this system, few manufacturers submitted efficiency test data to EPA.

• Some states still have emissions requirements that are more stringent than the EPA’s 

standard (e.g., Washington).

• A federal tax credit for efficient wood stoves was offered from 2009 to 2016 and 

retroactively for 2017. Some states offered tax credits through 2017 (e.g., Oregon).

47

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Multiple test standards are commonly used to assess stove efficiency and data from 

product literature does not generally identify the efficiency test method. 

• It’s not possible to determine performance trends based on construction or 

configuration (e.g., cast iron vs. plate steel, powered blowers vs. no blowers, etc.) trends 

in specific equipment type or construction based on published efficiencies. Further, 

EPA certification data shows no significant relationship between emissions and heating 

efficiency.

• Wood pellet stoves may be able to be direct vented to the outdoors, eliminating the 

need for a chimney. This reduces the overall system cost as compared to a cord wood 

stove. However, they do use electricity to power the pellet feeder, the combustion air 

fan, and the blower. In the event of a power outage, a pellet stove can not operate 

without some back-up source of electricity (e.g., battery) . 

48

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

49

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves

Source: HPBA, no post-2012 sales data was publicly available at time of publication.

Wood pellet stove shipments grew substantially in the 2005 – 2008 

time period, but have averaged only 40,000 – 60,000 units since that 

time. 

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Review Draft

50

Residential Water Heaters

• On December 29, 2016, the metric for the current Federal standard was translated from 

Energy Factor (EF) to Uniform Energy Factor (UEF)1. 

• The UEF test procedure is conceptually similar to the EF test procedure in that it is a 24-

hour simulated-use test of how the water heater would be expected to perform in the 

field.

— The EF test procedure consists of one draw pattern for all models. 

— The UEF test procedure consists of 4 possible draw patterns. 

 The particular draw pattern a water heater is tested to is determined through a 

delivery capacity test (first-hour rating or maximum GPM).

 A draw pattern is a set of instructions specifying when, how fast (flow rate), and 

how much (volume) hot water is removed from the water heater.

 Therefore, a water heater designed to deliver a small amount of hot water is not 

tested the same as a water heater designed to deliver a large amount of hot water.

1Test Procedures for Consumer and Commercial Water Heaters; Final rule. 81 FR 96204.

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Review Draft

51

Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

Uniform Energy 

Factor (UEF)* 0.58 0.58 0.61 0.63 0.66 0.81 0.63 0.81 0.63 0.81 0.63 0.81 0.63 0.81

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

500 500 700 750 800 1,850 750 1,850 750 1,850 750 1,850 750 1,850

550 550 1,000 1,200 1,350 2,100 1,200 2,100 1,200 2,100 1,200 2,100 1,200 2,100

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)**

1,050 1,050 1,350 1,400 1,500 2,450 1,400 2,450 1,400 2,450 1,400 2,450 1,400 2,450

1,050 1,050 2,300 2,450 2,550 3,700 2,450 3,700 2,450 3,700 2,450 3,700 2,450 3,700

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 0.60 EF. Analysis is based on an average of medium and high draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of 

the market.

** Installed cost reflects differences in installation cost between typical and high efficiency products. Typical efficiency products are non-condensing, 

whereas the high efficiency products are condensing and require different installation. Furthermore, higher UEF can be achieved by additional insulation, 

which also increases the size of the unit and the associated installation cost.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• The equations for the revised Federal standards are:

• There are currently no models on the market above 55 gallons due to the high UEF which would 

require using condensing or gas-fired heat pump (e.g., absorption) technology to achieve.

• The ENERGY STAR UEF levels for models with storage volume ≤ 55 gallons are typically achievable 

through the use of a power vent or flue damper.

• The cost of installation is typically $600 to $1200, which exceeds that of electric water heaters. This 

difference can be attributed to multiple differences, gas-fired heaters require an extra 1.5 hours of 

labor for 2 plumbers. 

• Condensing units are high efficiency and use PVC venting instead of stainless-steel. Condensing 

units also use an electrical supply for electronic ignition and power venting. Some building codes 

require condensate neutralizer filters.

52

Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

Volume 

Range Draw Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

≥ 20 gal and ≤ 

55 gal

Very Small UEF=0.3456-(0.002*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Low UEF=0.5982-(0.0019*Gal) 0.54 for a 29-gallon water heater N/A

Medium UEF=0.6483-(0.0017*Gal) 0.58 for a 38-gallon water heater 0.64

High UEF=0.692-(0.0013*Gal) 0.64 for a 48-gallon water heater 0.68

> 55 gal and ≤ 

100 gal

Very Small UEF=0.647-(0.0006*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Low UEF=0.7689-(0.0005*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Medium UEF=0.7897-(0.0004*Gal) No models on the market 0.78

High UEF=0.8072-(0.0003*Gal) No models on the market 0.80

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipments were flat at 5 million units per year through 2004, then 

declined gradually over 5 years to a new plateau at 4 million units 

until rising again to a max of 4.5 million units in 2014.

53

Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

Source: http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Residential-Storage-Water-Heaters-Historical-Data.aspx

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

54

Residential Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 0.50 EF. Analysis is based on an average of medium and high draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of 

the market

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 30 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32

Uniform Energy Factor 

(UEF)* 0.51 0.51 0.64 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.69

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

1,350 1,350 1,500 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600

1,450 1,450 1,900 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

2,000 2,000 2,100 2,250 2,200 2,250 2,200 2,250 2,200 2,250 2,200 2,250 2,200

2,100 2,100 2,700 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180

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Review Draft

• The equations for the Federal standards are:

• There are no ENERGY STAR levels for oil-fired storage water heaters.

• Annual shipments of residential oil-fired storage water heaters are approximately 

40,000, which is ~1% of shipments of residential gas-fired storage water heaters. 

• Oil-fired storage water heaters often have smaller tanks with larger input ratings 

relative to natural gas-fired and electric storage water heaters.

• No condensing residential oil-fired storage water heaters currently exist in the U.S. 

market. The highest efficiencies currently on the market are at near-condensing levels.

• Residential oil-fired water heaters utilize power burners and have at least some level of 

electrical power consumption. 

• The max-tech model on the market uses a proprietary “turbo-flue” design to increase 

heat transfer to water.

55

Residential Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

Volume 

Range

Draw 

Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

≤ 50 gal

Very Small UEF=0.2509-(0.0012*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Low UEF=0.533-(0.0016*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Medium UEF=0.6078-(0.0016*Gal) No models on the market N/A

High UEF=0.6815-(0.0014*Gal) 0.64 for a 29-gallon water heater N/A

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

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Review Draft

56

Residential Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Uniform Energy Factor 

(UEF)* 0.88 0.88 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.95

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

300 250 250 300 700 300 700 300 700 300 700 300 700

350 450 500 550 900 550 900 550 900 550 900 550 900

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)**

600 500 550 600 1,000 600 1,000 600 1,000 600 1,000 600 1,000

650 800 1,000 1,100 1,450 1,100 1,450 1,100 1,450 1,100 1,450 1,100 1,450

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - - -

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 0.90 EF. Analysis is based on an average of low and medium draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of 

the market

** Installed cost reflects differences in installation cost between typical and high efficiency products. The high UEF products have a larger size (due to 

insulation differences) and therefore require more installation work.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• The equations for the Federal standards are:

• The federal standards for residential electric storage water heaters apply to both electric 

resistance storage water heaters and integrated heat pump water heaters (HPWHs; heat 

pump module and storage tank combined in one unit).

— The Federal standard levels for the ≤55 gallon range are achievable through electric 

resistance and heat pump technology.

— The Federal standards for the >55 gallon range and all ENERGY STAR levels are only 

achievable through heat pump technology. Most HPWH on the market exceed both 

Federal standards and ENERGY STAR levels by a significant margin.

• Typical storage volumes range from 25-55 gallons for electric resistance storage water 

heaters and 45-80 gallons for HPWHs.

57

Residential Electric Storage Water Heaters

Volume 

Range

Draw 

Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

≥ 20 gal and 

≤ 55 gal

Very Small UEF=0.8808-(0.0008*Gal) No models on the market 2.00

Low UEF=0.9254-(0.0003*Gal) 0.91 for a 27-gallon water heater 2.00

Medium UEF=0.9307-(0.0002*Gal) 0.92 for a 36-gallon water heater 2.00

High UEF=0.9349-(0.0001*Gal) 0.93 for a 45-gallon water heater 2.00

> 55 gal and 

≤ 120 gal

Very Small UEF=1.9236-(0.0011*Gal) No models on the market 2.20

Low UEF=2.0440-(0.0011*Gal) No models on the market 2.20

Medium UEF=2.1171-(0.0011*Gal) 2.03 for a 77-gallon water heater 2.20

High UEF=2.2418-(0.0011*Gal) 2.15 for a 82-gallon water heater 2.20

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

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Review Draft

58

Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Uniform Energy Factor 

(UEF)* 2.05 2.05 3.28 2.00 3.55 3.28 3.55 3.28 3.55 3.28 3.55 3.28 3.55

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

1,550 1,100 1,200 1,050 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

1,900 1,400 1,500 1,350 2,300 1,500 2,300 1,500 2,300 1,500 2,300 1,500 2,300

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

1,700 1,450 1,600 1,400 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600

2,450 2,500 2,550 2,400 3,350 2,550 3,350 2,550 3,350 2,550 3,350 2,550 3,350

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 2.00 EF. Analysis is based on an average of low and medium draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of 

the market

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Review Draft

• Technology improvements have advanced efficiency and reliability, but the high first-cost 

and lack of awareness among consumers and contractors still precludes high-volume market 

penetration. Although there is an installed base listed for 2009, the market penetration of 

heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) was quite low at that time.

• New Federal standards that came into effect in April 2015 effectively mandate heat pump 

technology for electric storage water heaters with storage volume > 55 gallons.

• Integrated models are the most common configuration for residential HPWHs. Several major 

water heater manufacturers produce such models, and other competitors offer integrated or 

add-on units (for existing electric or indirect storage water heaters). 

• Sales are estimated to be driven partly by rebates and tax credits at the utility, local, state, 

and Federal level. 

• Resistive heating elements are virtually 100% efficient, but there is a jump in efficiency when 

heat pump technology is adopted because heat pumps’ Coefficient of Performance (COP) are 

usually between 2.5 and 4.

• Heat pumps raise the water temperature more slowly than resistive heating elements, so 

most models use backup resistive elements along with the heat pump when hot water 

demand is high. Most HPWHs allow the consumer to control whether resistive elements are 

used in periods of high demand (e.g., “hybrid mode” or “heat pump only mode”).

59

Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipments peaked in 2006 then dropped a total of 22 percent over 

three years and leveled off between 3.7 and 4.3 million units per year. 

60

Residential Electric Water Heaters

Source: http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Residential-Storage-Water-Heaters-Historical-Data.aspx

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Review Draft

61

Residential Solar Water Heaters

* Costs are for an indirect (active closed loop) system, including tank and backup heater. Smaller capacity/cost systems are typical for southern & western 

states (>2/3 of the current market). Higher capacity/cost systems are required in colder/cloudier regions.

** ENERGY STAR requires OG-300 rating from SRCC. Most installations use SRCC rated collectors; a high efficiency option is not applicable.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base

Typical / 

ENERGY 

STAR**

Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.)

42 42 42 42 42 42 42

63 65 65 65 65 65 65

Solar Fraction (SF) 0.5 0.5 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56

Solar Energy Factor (SEF) 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Average Life (yrs)

15 15 15 15 15 15 15

30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost* (2017$)

3,500 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800

5,400 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300

Total Installed Cost* (2017$)

7,800 7,100 7,100 7,100 7,100 7,100 7,100

10,200 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Solar water heaters (SWHs) are not subject to federal energy conservation standards, the ENERGY 

STAR requirements are:

• Solar water heaters can be either active or passive. An active system uses an electric pump to 

circulate the heat transfer fluid; a passive system has no pump. Most solar water heaters in the 

United States are the active type.

• Solar water heaters are also characterized as open loop (also called "direct") or closed loop (also 

called "indirect"). An open-loop system circulates household (potable) water through the collector. 

A closed-loop system uses a heat transfer fluid (water or diluted antifreeze, for example) to collect 

heat and a heat exchanger to transfer the heat to household water.

• Solar fraction represents the fraction of total annual water heating energy met by the solar water 

heater. A backup water heating system is required with SWHs, and it is typically most economical 

to size the system to provide about 50% of water heating energy (solar fraction = 0.5).

• Solar Energy Factor (SEF) is defined by the Solar Rating and Certification Corporation (SRCC) as the 

useful energy delivered by the system divided by the total electrical and/or fossil fuel required for 

backup heating, pumping, and controls (the free solar energy input is neglected).

• Over 2/3 of the current SWH market is in the southern or western US (including Hawaii). A collector 

area of 42 ft2 would be typical for these areas. Colder areas of the US would require a larger collector 

(e.g. 65 ft2).

• Installed costs are higher for colder areas where larger collectors are required. Costs also vary 

widely depending on collector quality, type of system, and site-specific characteristics.

62

Residential Solar Water Heaters

Applicable 

Products

Backup 

Fuel

ENERGY STAR 

Requirement Test Method

Whole-home 

solar units

Gas SEF ≥ 1.2 SRCC – OG-300: Operating Guidelines and Minimum 

Electric SEF ≥ 1.8 Standards for Certifying Solar Water Heating Systems 

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Review Draft

63

Residential Gas-fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr) 185 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199

Uniform Energy Factor 

(UEF)* 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.89 0.87 0.97 0.89 0.97 0.89 0.97 0.89 0.97 0.89 0.97

Average Life (yrs)

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

1,150 1,200 700 1,000 850 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050

1,300 1,500 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,650 1,200 1,650 1,200 1,650 1,200 1,650 1,200 1,650

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

1,750 2,200 1,500 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,500 1,600 1,500 1,600 1,500 1,600 1,500 1,600

1,850 3,250 3,200 2,850 3,050 3,300 2,850 3,300 2,850 3,300 2,850 3,300 2,850 3,300

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 90 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 0.82 EF. Analysis is based on an average of low, medium, and high draw pattern units, as this is most 

reflective of the market

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Review Draft

• The Federal standards are:

• The ENERGY STAR levels require the use of condensing technology.

• Navien and Bosch manufacture the highest efficiency high draw pattern models 

currently available on the market, which have a UEF of 0.97. Navien manufactures the 

highest efficiency medium draw pattern models currently available on the market, 

which have a UEF of 0.96. These levels are achieved through the use of electronic 

ignition, power-direct venting, and condensing the flue gases.

• All of the major water heater manufacturers now offer an instantaneous model.

• The maintenance costs include cleaning the water inlet filter and the heat exchanger of 

mineral deposits and replacing the water valve approximately once every five years for 

all instantaneous water heaters.

• When replacing a storage water heater with an instantaneous water heater, there are 

significant additional costs to upsize the gas supply line to 3⁄4 inch from the typical 1⁄2 

inch and change the venting.

64

Residential Gas-fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

Volume 

Range

Draw 

Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

<2 gal and 

>50,000 Btu/h

Very Small UEF=0.80 No models on the market 0.87

Low UEF=0.81 No models on the market 0.87

Medium UEF=0.81 0.81 0.87

High UEF=0.81 0.81 0.87

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

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Review Draft

65

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Top)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 657 512 405 389 364 358 389 358 389 358 389 358 389 358

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 580 570 700 750 850 880 750 880 750 880 750 880 750 880

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 580 570 700 750 850 880 750 880 750 880 750 880 750 880

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

* Product Class 3 is used for this analysis (Refrigerator-freezers—automatic defrost with top-mounted freezer without through-the-door ice service and allrefrigerator—automatic defrost)

** The volume shown here is the nominal total volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted 

volume is equal to the fresh food internal volume plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 21 ft3 and use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and 

Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g. compressor, evaporator fan, electronics)

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66

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Side)

* Product Class 7 is used for this analysis (Refrigerator-freezers—automatic defrost with side-mounted freezer with through-the-door ice service) 

** The volume shown here is the nominal total volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted 

volume is equal to the fresh food internal volume plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 32 ft3 and use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and 

Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g. compressor, evaporator fan, electronics, ice maker), not replaceable components 

(e.g. water filters)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 1,146 893 705 671 635 509 671 509 671 509 671 509 671 509

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 1,200 1,190 1,310 1,420 1,550 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 1,200 1,190 1,310 1,420 1,550 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

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Review Draft

67

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Bottom)

* Product Class 5 is used for this analysis (Refrigerator-freezers—automatic defrost with bottom-mounted freezer without through-the-door ice service)

** The volume shown here is the nominal total volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted 

volume is equal to the fresh food internal volume plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 25 ft3 for 2009 and 23 ft3 for all other years. All values represent use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test 

Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the 

updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g. compressor, evaporator fan, electronics)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 651 547 521 480 469 469 480 469 480 469 480 469 480 469

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 980 1,010 1,030 1,120 1,160 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 980 1,010 1,030 1,120 1,160 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

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Review Draft

• Current Federal standards1:

— Compliance required beginning September 15, 2014.

— Models divided into 32 product classes based on size (standard or compact), location of freezer (top, 

bottom, or side), type of defrost (automatic or manual), installation configuration (freestanding or builtin), and presence and configuration (through-the-door or inside cabinet) of automatic icemaker

— Limits on annual electricity consumption expressed as functions of adjusted volume2

— New product classes for built-in units

— Amount by which standards are tightened varies by product class

• ENERGY STAR criteria limit annual electricity consumption to 10% less than the Federal standard.

• Current analysis focuses on the three representative product classes analyzed in the recent rulemaking.

• Energy efficiency opportunities include:

— Higher efficiency and/or variable-speed compressor systems

— Larger heat exchangers

— Permanent-magnet fan motor systems (vs. SPM and PSC fan motors)

— Demand defrost systems

— Vacuum-insulated panels

— Thicker insulation (though at a loss of consumer utility)

— Refrigerants (Isobutane vs. R134a)

— Variable anti-sweat heating

68

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and Freezers. 10 CFR 430.32(a).

2Adjusted Volume (AV) = (Fresh Volume) + 1.76 × (Freezer Volume). 

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Review Draft

Annual shipment volumes have rebounded from a sharp decline 

between 2006 and 2009, reaching approximately 10.9 million units in 

2016.

69

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers

Source: Appliance Magazine; DOE’s Compliance and Certification Database (as of December 2017); Navigant analysis. Dashed 

lines indicate interpolated data.

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Review Draft

Bottom-mount units have gained market share, likely surpassing topmount units in 2016. 

70

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers

Sources: August 2011 Refrigerator Final Rule TSD; DOE’s Compliance Certification Database (as of December 2017); Navigant 

analysis. Dashed bars indicate interpolated data.

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Review Draft

71

Residential Freezers (Chest)

* Product Class 10 is used for this analysis (Chest freezers and all other freezers except compact freezers)

** The volume shown here is the nominal volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted volume is 

equal to the fresh food internal volume (zero for freezers) plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 26 ft3 and use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and 

Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g. compressor, evaporator fan, electronics)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 428 360 300 297 277 275 297 275 297 275 297 275 297 275

Average Life (yrs)

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 420 430 500 500 550 540 500 540 500 540 500 540 500 540

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 420 430 500 500 550 540 500 540 500 540 500 540 500 540

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

72

Residential Freezers (Upright)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 763 615 477 446 430 419 446 419 446 419 446 419 446 419

Average Life (yrs)

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 580 590 690 750 790 810 750 810 750 810 750 810 750 810

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 580 590 690 750 790 810 750 810 750 810 750 810 750 810

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

* Product Class 9 is used for this analysis (Upright freezers with automatic defrost)

** The volume shown here is the nominal volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted volume is 

equal to the fresh food internal volume (zero for freezers) plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 29 ft3 and use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and 

Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g. compressor, evaporator fan, electronics)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Current Federal standards1:

— Compliance required beginning September 15, 2014

— Models divided into 10 product classes based on size (standard or compact), orientation (chest or 

upright), type of defrost (automatic or manual), installation configuration (freestanding or built-in), and 

presence of automatic icemaker

— Limits on annual electricity consumption expressed as functions of adjusted volume2

• ENERGY STAR criteria limit annual electricity consumption to 10% less than the Federal standard.

• Current analysis focuses on the two representative product classes analyzed in the recent rulemaking.

• Energy efficiency opportunities include:

— Higher efficiency and/or variable-speed compressor systems

— Larger heat exchangers

— Permanent-magnet fan motor systems (vs. SPM and PSC fan motors)

— Demand defrost systems

— Vacuum-insulated panels

— Thicker insulation (though at a loss of consumer utility)

— Refrigerants (Isobutane vs. R134a)

— Variable anti-sweat heating

— Use of forced convection condenser (for upright freezers)

73

Residential Freezers

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and Freezers. 10 CFR 430.32(a).

2Adjusted Volume (AV) = (Fresh Volume) + 1.76 × (Freezer Volume). 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipment volumes have held steady since 2007 at about 2 million 

units per year. Chest freezers represent about 60% of the market.

74

Residential Freezers

Source: Appliance Magazine.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

75

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops

* Although there is no performance standard in effect, the test procedure metric has changed from Cooking Efficiency (%) to Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kBtu/yr) based on the 2016 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products

** Equipment and installed costs are for cooktops only (not combined range units).

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kbtu/yr)* 1,105 1,061 914 730 914 730 914 730 914 730 914 730

Cooking Efficiency (%) 39 40 45 52 45 52 45 52 45 52 45 52

Average Life (yrs)

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)** 250 250 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260

Total Installed Cost (2017$)** 360 360 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - -
Review Draft

76

Residential Natural Gas Ovens

* Although there is no performance standard in effect, the test procedure metric has changed from Cooking Efficiency (%) to Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kBtu/yr) based on the 2016 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products

** Equipment and installed costs are for ovens only (not combined ranges). Furthermore, they are reflective of freestanding oven units, which represent 

90% of the market.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Typical Cavity Volume (ft3

)

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kbtu/yr)* 2,077 2,038 1,915 1,660 1,915 1,660 1,915 1,660 1,915 1,660 1,915 1,660

Cooking Efficiency (%) 6.5 6.6 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8

Average Life (yrs)

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)** 510 510 560 610 560 610 560 610 560 610 560 610

Total Installed Cost (2017$)** 620 620 680 720 680 720 680 720 680 720 680 720

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - -
Review Draft

• DOE analyzes cooktops and ovens separately, although they are often sold together in a 

single unit that combines both a cooktop and an oven into a product referred to as a 

range.

• Since January 1, 1990, gas cooking products with an electrical supply cord have been 

required to not be equipped with a constant burning pilot light. This requirement 

extended to gas cooking products without an electrical supply cord, as of April 9, 2012.

• DOE final rule published in 20091: no standard for cooking efficiency is cost-justified.

• DOE initiated a standards rulemaking in 2014 to consider amended standards for 

cooking products, including gas cooktops and ovens2.

— Most recently, on September 2, 2016, DOE proposed performance-based standards 

for gas cooktops and ovens that would take effect in 2020 if adopted.

• DOE established a new metric called integrated annual energy consumption (kBtu/year) 

to replace cooking efficiency (%).

77

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops and Ovens

1Energy Conservation Standards for Certain Consumer Products (Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Microwave Ovens, and Electric and Gas Kitchen 

Ranges and Ovens) and for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment (Commercial Clothes Washers); Final Rule. 74 FR 16040.

2Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products; Supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking (SNOPR). 81 FR 

60784.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipments have been rising since 2012 and are approaching the peak 

reached in 2005.

78

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops and Ovens

Note: Excludes separate ovens, which were categorized as "built-in" units prior to 2007 and represent a relatively negligible portion of the market. 

For example, between 2012-2014 an average of 32,000 standalone gas ovens, 360,000 gas cooktops, and 4.46 million ranges were sold per year.

Source: Appliance Magazine.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

Combined Energy Factor 

(lb/kWh)* 3.55 3.59 3.73 3.74 4.50 3.74 4.50 3.74 4.50 3.74 4.50 3.74 4.50

Average Life (yrs) 

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 410 410 420 430 650 430 650 430 650 430 650 430 650

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 520 520 530 540 770 540 770 540 770 540 770 540 770

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)** - - - - - - - - - - - - -

79

Residential Clothes Dryers (Electric)

*The efficiency metric changed from energy factor (EF) to combined energy factor (CEF) in 2015. The CEF value for installed base 2009 is a converted value 

equivalent to 3.01 EF

** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

80

Residential Clothes Dryers (Gas)

*The efficiency metric changed from energy factor (EF) to combined energy factor (CEF) in 2015. The CEF value for installed base 2009 is a converted value 

equivalent to 2.67 EF

** Maintenance costs are negligible.

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

Combined Energy Factor 

(lb/kWh)* 3.14 3.18 3.30 3.32 3.49 3.32 3.49 3.32 3.61 3.32 3.61 3.32 3.61

Average Life (yrs) 

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 460 460 480 500 610 500 610 500 640 500 640 500 640

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 630 630 650 660 770 660 770 660 810 660 810 660 810

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)** - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Current standards1 in effect since 2015:

— For standard-size electric units : CEF ≥ 3.73 lb/kWh

— For gas units: CEF ≥ 2.30 lb/kWh

• Remaining efficiency improvement opportunities include:

— Multi-step or modulating heat

— Higher efficiency drum motors

— Inlet air pre-heat

— Better control systems for cycle termination

— Heat pump (for electric clothes dryers)

— Ultrasonic drying (prototype in development at Oak Ridge National Lab)

• EPA developed an ENERGY STAR program for residential clothes dryers, which became 

effective in 2015. In addition, EPA developed an Emerging Technology Award in 2014 to 

recognize advanced high-efficiency clothes dryers introduced to the U.S. market. 

• Standard-size heat pump clothes dryers with CEF of 4.5 currently available in the U.S. 

market. High initial cost and longer drying times have limited market penetration, but some 

utilities are offering rebates to support market penetration. 

81

Residential Clothes Dryers

1Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Clothes Dryers. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipment volumes have been on the rise since 2012. Gas dryers 

continue to account for about one-fifth of the market.

82

Residential Clothes Dryers

Source: Appliance Magazine.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

83

Residential Clothes Washers (Front)

*2009 installed base value is equivalent to 2.07 Modified Energy Factor (MEF). The efficiency metric changed from Modified Energy Factor to Integrated 

Modified Energy Factor (IMEF) in 2015. 

**2009 installed base value is equivalent to 6.2 Water Factor (WF). The efficiency metric changed from Water Factor to Integrated Water Factor (IWF) in 

2015. 

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 3.09 3.66 3.41 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.5 5.6 4.5 5.6 4.5 5.6 4.5 5.6

Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (ft3

/kWh/cycle)* 1.67 2.16 1.84 2.76 2.38 2.92 2.76 3.10 2.92 3.10 2.92 3.10 2.92 3.10

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3

)** 6.5 4.7 4.7 3.2 3.7 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Water Consumption 

(gal/cycle) 20 17 16 14 16 13 14 15 13 15 13 15 13 15

Hot Water Energy 

(kWh/cycle) 0.68 0.21 0.36 0.17 0.24 0.14 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.15

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) 0.15 0.17 0.15 0.21 0.29 0.17 0.21 0.28 0.17 0.28 0.17 0.28 0.17 0.28

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle) 1.02 1.31 1.34 1.22 1.19 1.22 1.22 1.37 1.22 1.37 1.22 1.37 1.22 1.37

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

550 550 600 600 600 600 600 600 700 700 700 700 700 700

700 700 1,000 1,100 1,000 1,200 1,100 1,200 1,200 1,300 1,200 1,300 1,200 1,300

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

700 700 750 750 750 750 750 1350 750 1350 750 1350 750 1350

850 850 1150 1250 1150 1350 1250 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

84

Residential Clothes Washers (Top)

*2009 installed base value is equivalent to 1.2 Modified Energy Factor (MEF). The efficiency metric changed from Modified Energy Factor to Integrated 

Modified Energy Factor (IMEF) in 2015. 

**2009 installed base value is equivalent to 12 Water Factor (WF). The efficiency metric changed from Water Factor to Integrated Water Factor (IWF) in 

2015. 

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 3 3.28 3.3 3.3 4.5 4.9 3.9 4.9 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.9

Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (ft3

/kWh/cycle)* 0.78 1.14 1.29 1.29 2.06 2.76 1.57 2.76 2.06 2.76 2.06 2.76 2.06 2.76

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3

)** 12.4 9.2 8.4 8.4 4.3 3.5 6.5 3.5 4.3 3.5 4.3 3.5 4.3 3.5

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Water Consumption 

(gal/cycle) 37 30 28 28 19 17 25 17 19 17 19 17 19 17

Hot Water Energy 

(kWh/cycle) 2.25 0.90 0.77 0.77 0.36 0.18 0.71 0.18 0.36 0.18 0.36 0.18 0.36 0.18

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) 0.28 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.15 0.12 0.24 0.12 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.12

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle) 1.31 1.73 1.50 1.50 1.65 1.46 1.51 1.46 1.65 1.46 1.65 1.46 1.65 1.46

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

550 450 400 400 600 750 400 750 500 750 500 750 500 750

700 550 600 600 1,000 1,200 600 1,200 700 1,200 700 1,200 700 1,200

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

700 600 550 550 750 900 550 900 650 900 650 900 650 900

850 700 750 750 1150 1350 750 1350 850 1350 850 1350 850 1350

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• The analysis treats front- and top-loading models separately due to their different energy use characteristics.

• Federal standards1 for standard-capacity clothes washers (≥ 1.6 cubic feet):

• In 2017, around 30% of top-loading models and almost all front-loading models achieve the ENERGY STAR 

level.

• Energy efficiency improvement opportunities include:

— Higher efficiency motors and higher spin speeds

— Better load sensing for adaptive water fill control

— Reduced water temperature and quantity, while providing equivalent cleaning and rinsing 

performance

• Maintenance costs include replacement or repair of the drain pump, control board, motor, rubber gaskets, or 

control panel knobs.

• The products on the market with the highest Integrated Modified Energy Factor have significantly larger 

capacity and therefore use more energy per cycle than typical, smaller capacity products but still perform 

more efficiently on a per volume basis.

85

Residential Clothes Washers

Integrated Modified Energy Factor Integrated Water Factor

Top-Loading Front-Loading Top-Loading Front-Loading

Current DOE Standard

(effective 3/7/2015) ≥ 1.29 ≥ 1.84 ≤ 8.4 ≤ 4.7

Current ENERGY STAR

(effective 3/7/2015) ≥ 2.06 ≥ 2.38 ≤ 4.3 ≤ 3.7

Future DOE Standard

(effective 1/1/2018) ≥ 1.57 ≥ 1.84 (no change) ≤ 6.5 ≤ 4.7 (no change)

Future ENERGY STAR

(effective 1/1/2018) ≥ 2.06 (no change) ≥ 2.76 ≤ 4.3 (no change) ≤ 3.2

1Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Clothes Washers. 10 CFR 430.32(g).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipment volumes have returned to pre-housing boom levels. Frontloaders’ market share peaked in 2010 at just under 50% and has since 

declined to around 40%.

86

Residential Clothes Washers

Sources: Appliance Magazine; Residential Clothes Washer Direct Final Rule TSD, EERE, April 2012; ENERGY 

STAR shipments data 2015-2016. Dashed lines indicate extrapolated/interpolated data.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

87

Residential Dishwashers

* Refers to that portion of "Typical Annual Energy Use" that is the energy used to heat water in a separate water heater before it enters the dishwasher. The 

energy used to heat water inside the dishwasher cannot be disaggregated from the total.

** Equipment and installation cost estimates changed significantly between the 2012 DOE analysis, the source for installed base costs, and the 2016 DOE 

analysis, the source for costs in 2017 and later.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note: All values in table reflect 215 cycles/year, as dictated by the test procedure.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) 383 347 307 270 270 225 270 225 270 225 270 225 270 225

Water Consumption (gal/cycle) 6.88 6.23 5.00 3.50 3.50 2.40 3.50 2.40 3.50 2.40 3.50 2.40 3.50 2.40

Water Heating Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)* 249 226 176 125 125 86 125 86 125 86 125 86 125 86

Average Life (yrs)

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)** 365 370 260 320 320 390 320 390 320 390 320 390 320 390

Total Installed Cost (2017$)** 705 710 425 485 485 555 485 555 485 555 485 555 485 555

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Performance criteria for standard-capacity dishwashers (assumes 215 cycles/year1):

— Federal Standards:

 Jan. 1, 2010: ≤ 355 kWh/yr, ≤ 6.5 gal/cycle (EISA 2007)

 May 30, 2013: ≤ 307 kWh/yr, ≤ 5.0 gal/cycle (DOE Direct Final Rule, published May 2012)

— ENERGY STAR Criteria:

 Aug. 11, 2009 : ≤ 324 kWh/yr, ≤ 5.8 gal/cycle (version 4.0, announced Nov. 2008)

 Jan. 20, 2012: ≤ 295 kWh/yr, ≤ 4.25 gal/cycle (version 5.0, announced April 2011)

 Jan. 29, 2016: ≤ 270 kWh/yr (5% allowance for connected), ≤ 3.5 gal/cycle (version 6.0, announced April 

2015)

• ENERGY STAR has maintained a very high market share for several years, so sales-weighted-average efficiency 

has tracked ENERGY STAR levels.

• Test procedures:

— Accounts for motor, dryer, booster heater (if present), and hot water from separate water heater

— Amended test procedure, which took effect May 30, 2013, includes standby and off-mode energy

— ENERGY STAR established a cleaning performance test method; however, cleaning performance reporting 

is currently optional.

• Efficiency improvement opportunities include:

— Better soil sensing 

— Water distribution (small pipes, fine filter, small sump, alternating water use) and controls (flow meter, 

temperature sensor)

— Inline water heater (to minimize sump volume)

— Separate drain pump, high-efficiency, variable-speed circulation pump motor

— Condensation drying (rather than power dry)

88

Residential Dishwashers Return to Table of Contents

1 215 cycles/year is assumed in the current test procedure and current standard. In the 2016 DOE “Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy 

Efficiency Program for Consumer Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Residential Dishwashers” the energy use and economic 

analyses were updated to include RECS 2009 data which resulted in a value of 207 cycles/year. 
Review Draft

Shipments peaked in 2005 during the housing boom, dropped during 

the 2008-2009 recession, and reached a new high in 2016.

89

Residential Dishwashers

Sources: DOE Residential Dishwashers Final Rule Technical Support Document (Table 3.9.2); ENERGY STAR Unit 

Shipment and Market Penetration Report, Calendar Year 2016 Summary; Appliance Magazine

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

90

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces

* DOE's efficiency metric for commercial furnaces accounts only for flue losses, not jacket losses.

**In 2023, the new Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Warm Air Furnaces will take effect. These projections reflect the 2023 minimum 

thermal efficiency requirement for gas-fired furnaces, 81%.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

Thermal Efficiency (%)* 80 80 80 95 80 95 81 95 81 95 81 95

Average Life (yrs) 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 1,050 1,050 1,050 2,450 1,050 2,450 1,050 2,450 1,050 2,450 1,050 2,450 

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 2,150 2,150 2,150 3,950 2,150 3,950 2,200 3,950 2,200 3,950 2,200 3,950 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)** 170 170 170 180 170 180 170 180 170 180 170 180

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Current Federal standard requires minimum 80% thermal efficiency. This metric, 

more commonly called “combustion efficiency” in other contexts, accounts only for 

flue losses, not jacket losses.

— The Federal standard applies to all units manufactured on or after January 1, 

1994 with maximum rated heat input ≥ 225,000 Btu per hour.

— On January 1, 2023, the minimum Federal standard increases to 81% thermal 

efficiency.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a commercial building code in many 

states, stipulates that furnaces that are not within the conditioned space shall not 

have jacket losses exceeding 0.75% of the input rating.

• Commercial furnaces are typically non-condensing with thermal efficiencies ranging 

from 80% to 82%. Recently condensing commercial furnaces have been introduced, 

which achieve up to 95% thermal efficiency. However, condensing models currently 

make up a very small portion of the market.

• Besides capacity, commercial units can differ from residential furnaces in terms of 

the control system (i.e. integration with a Building Management System, twinning, 

or other staging strategies). Commercial systems may also use a heat recovery 

system to pre-heat inlet air. 

91

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

92

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces

* DOE's efficiency metric for commercial furnaces accounts only for flue losses, not jacket losses.

**In 2023, the new Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Warm Air Furnaces will take effect. These projections reflect the 2023 

minimum thermal efficiency requirement for oil-fired furnaces, 82%.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

Thermal Efficiency (%)* 81 81 82 85 82 82 82 82

Average Life (yrs) 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 4,650 4,650 4,700 5,050 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 6,550 6,550 6,600 6,750 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,600 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)** 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Current Federal standard requires minimum 81% thermal efficiency. This metric, 

more commonly called “combustion efficiency” in other contexts, accounts only for 

flue losses, not jacket losses. 

— The Federal standard applies to all units manufactured on or after January 1, 

1994 with maximum rated heat input ≥ 225,000 Btu per hour.

— On January 1, 2023, the minimum Federal standard increases to 82% thermal 

efficiency.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a commercial building code in many 

states, stipulates that furnaces that are not within the conditioned space shall not 

have jacket losses exceeding 0.75% of the input rating.

• Commercial oil-fired furnaces have thermal efficiencies ranging from 81% to 85% 

and are non-condensing (i.e., not designed for condensation of flue gases).

• Besides capacity, commercial units can differ in terms of the control system (i.e. 

integration with a Building Management System, twinning, or other staging 

strategies). Commercial systems may also use a heat recovery system to pre-heat 

inlet air.

• The maintenance cost estimate assumes two cleanings per year.

93

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

94

Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters

* Capacity is output

** Annual Maintenance Cost is negligible

DATA 

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base: 

Small 

Installed 

Base: 

Large 

Small Large Small Large Small Large Small Large Small Large 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h)* 17 170 17 170 17 170 17 170 17 170 17 170

Efficiency (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Average Life (yrs) 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 850 5,375 850 5,375 850 5,375 850 5,375 850 5,375 850 5,375

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)** - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• This analysis examined electric unit heaters.

• Electric unit heaters range in capacity from 2 to 100 kW (7 to 340 kBtu/hr), with 5 to 50 

kW (17 to 170 kBtu/hr) being the most typical units on the market.

• Electric resistance heaters are considered near 100% efficient because there is no heat 

loss through ducts or combustion.

• Installation time and costs are estimated to be minimal.

95

Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

96

Commercial Electric Boilers

* Capacity is output

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kW)* 165 165 165 165 165 165

Efficiency (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (yrs) 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 9,875 9,850 9,850 9,850 9,850 9,850

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 14,875 11,750 11,750 $11,750 11,750 11,750

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 145 110 110 110 110 110

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• There are currently no federal standards associated with electric boilers.

• The costs shown are for one 165kW unit, which would equate to a steady load of 

approximately 550,000 Btu/hr.

• Service life is determined mainly by water quality. Water conditioning (e.g., filters, 

softeners, de-alkizers, chemical feeders) may be necessary for a given application. 

• Annual maintenance in a typical application would include draining the unit for 

removal of any accumulated scale or sludge buildup.

• Minor end-use inefficiencies for electric boilers result from heat loss through the boiler 

(jacket losses).

97

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98

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers

* The standard level shown here is for small (300 kBtu/h to 2500 kBtu/h) gas-fired hot water commercial packaged boilers, the most common type of 

boiler available on the market.

** DOE's efficiency metric for most types of boilers now accounts for both flue and jacket losses; previously it did not. DOE continues to uses a 

combustion efficiency metric instead for hot water boilers with heat input > 2,500,000 Btu/h.

*** The updated maintenance costs for 2017 and post-2017 are based on the recently issued commercial packaged boilers final rule. The annualized 

maintenance costs estimated in the final rule are based on 2016 RS Means data and differ for condensing vs non-condensing boilers. Appendix 8E of 

the 2016 final rule TSD for commercial packaged boilers provides additional information on how the values are calculated. The cost values in the table 

are for gas-fired hot water CPBs.

Note: In December of 2016, EREE issued a final rule titled Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers. As of October 2017, this rule has not yet been published and therefore these standards are not reflected in the values shown above.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base 

Current 

Standard

*

Typical MidRange High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

Thermal Efficiency (%)** 77 80 85 93 99 85 99 85 99 85 99 85 99 

Average Life (yrs) 30 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 13,150 16,600 22,700 33,250 37,500 22,700 37,500 22,700 37,500 22,700 37,500 22,700 37,500 

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 20,825 25,800 32,450 42,650 46,750 32,450 46,750 32,450 46,750 32,450 46,750 32,450 46,750 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** 1445 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Commercial packaged gas-fired boilers are classified by:

— Heat input capacity

— Produce steam or hot water

— Draft type (natural draft or not) – for steam boilers

• Most common type is small gas-fired hot water boilers, those with 300,000-2,500,000 

Btu/h rated heat input.

• Federal standards require thermal efficiency ≥ 77%, 79%, or 80%, depending on type.

• DOE’s efficiency metric, thermal efficiency, now aligns with ASHRAE 90.1 and 

accounts for both flue and jacket losses.

• Large gas-fired hot water boilers i.e., boilers with rated heat input greater than 

2,500,000 Btu/h are required to have combustion efficiency ≥ 82%.

• Similar technologies to the those used in the residential market can be leveraged in 

the commercial arena. The higher efficiency units typically include electronic 

ignition, power burners, and improved heat exchangers. Some also condense water 

vapor from the flue gases to improve heating efficiency.

• DOE issued a Final Rule for Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial 

Packaged Boilers on December 28, 2016 that would update the efficiency ratings of 

gas-fired commercial packaged boilers.

99

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100

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers

* The standard level shown here is for small (300 kBtu/h -2500 kBtu/h) oil-fired hot water commercial packaged boilers, the most common type of oilfired boiler available on the market.

** DOE's efficiency metric for most types of boilers now accounts for both flue and jacket losses; previously it did not. DOE continues to uses a 

combustion efficiency metric instead for hot water boilers with heat input > 2,500,000 Btu/h.

*** The updated maintenance costs for 2017 and post-2017 are based on the recently issued commercial packaged boilers final rule. The annualized 

maintenance costs estimated in the final rule are based on 2016 RS Means data and differ for condensing vs non-condensing boilers. Appendix 8E of 

the 2016 final rule TSD for commercial packaged boilers provides additional information on how the values are calculated. The cost values in the table 

are for oil-fired hot water CPBs.

Note: In December of 2016 EREE issued a final rule titled Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers. As of October 2017, this rule has not yet been published and therefore these standards are not reflected in the values shown above.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard* Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 1,200 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 

Thermal Efficiency (%)** 81 82 85 97 85 97 87 97 89 97 92 97

Average Life (yrs) 30 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 14,250 19,800 22,850 44,550 22,850 44,550 22,850 44,550 22,850 44,550 22,850 44,550

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$) 18,625 28,000 31,500 53,250 31,500 53,250 31,500 53,250 31,500 53,250 31,500 53,250

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** 1445 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Commercial packaged oil-fired boilers are classified by:

— Heat input capacity

— Produce steam or hot water

• Most common type is small hot water boilers, those with 300,000-2,500,000 Btu/h 

rated heat input.

• DOE’s efficiency metric, thermal efficiency, now aligns with ASHRAE 90.1 and 

accounts for both flue and jacket losses.

• Federal standards require thermal efficiency ≥ 81% for steam boilers and ≥ 82% for 

hot water boilers.

• Exception is large hot water boilers, which must have combustion efficiency ≥ 84%.

• The higher efficiency units typically include improved heat exchangers, and multistep or variable-output power burners.

• Based on current shipment trends, projected shipments of oil-fired CPBs post-2017 

are expected to decrease with time.

• DOE issued a Final Rule for Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial 

Packaged Boilers on December 28, 2016 that would update the efficiency ratings of 

oil-fired commercial packaged boilers.

101

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Commercial Centrifugal Chillers (Water Cooled)

* Capacity is output

**ASHRAE 90.1 data here are for units larger than 400 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2016)

***2017 typical and high efficiency levels determined base on the range of products currently available on the market.

Note: For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance of 

baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. 

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 

90.1** Typical*** High*** Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)*

400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

Efficiency [full-load] 

(kW/ton) 0.66 0.56 0.53 0.45 0.49 0.44 0.46 0.42 0.43 0.41 0.42 0.40

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton) 0.61 0.50 0.37 0.30 0.36 0.29 0.35 0.27 0.34 0.25 0.33 0.24

COP [full-load] 5.4 6.3 6.6 7.8 7.2 8.0 7.6 8.4 8.2 8.6 8.4 8.8

COP [IPLV] 5.9 7.0 9.5 11.7 9.8 12.1 10.0 13.0 10.3 14.1 10.7 14.7

Average Life (yrs) 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton) 325 400 425 575 425 575 425 575 425 575 425 575

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

375 450 475 625 475 625 475 625 475 625 475 625

425 475 500 650 500 650 500 650 500 650 500 650

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• ASHRAE 90.1-2016 stipulates minimum efficiencies for centrifugal chillers separately from positive 

displacement water-cooled chillers. They are separated into 5 size categories, with categories divided at: 

150, 300, 400, and 600 tons; ASHRAE 90.1-2016 also distinguishes between whether the unit will be 

optimized for full load (Path A) or part load operation (Path B). Data here are for Path A; a Path B chiller 

may have slightly high full-load consumption in exchange for much lower part-load consumption. For 

example, for a 600 Ton unit:

— Path A: ≥ 0.56 kW/ton full load and ≥0.50 kW/ton IPLV 

— Path B: ≥ 0.585 kW/ton full load and ≥.38 kW/ton IPLV

• Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) recommendations, last updated in Aug 2016, match 

ASHRAE 90.1-2016. 

• The highest efficiency centrifugal chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Variable speed drive (VSD) compressors

— Dedicated heat recovery (heat pump chiller)

— Magnetic bearing technology (oil-free operation)

— Greater heat exchanger surface areas; enhanced tube configurations (counterflow)

— Optimized fluid flow velocities

— High efficiency electric motors

— Improved turbomachinery design, resulting in higher compressor efficiency

— Better piping and valving, including electronic expansion valves

— Evaporative condenser for the heat rejection equipment

• Installed costs vary widely depending on equipment needed for installation (e .g. crane) and size of system. 

This is a mature market with centrifugal chillers representing 75% of commercial chiller sales larger than 200 

tons.

• Water cooled chiller ratings do not include energy consumption of the cooling tower and therefore are not 

directly comparable to rating for air-cooled chillers.

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104

Commercial Reciprocating Chillers (Air Cooled Only)

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.12 Typical3 High3 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)4

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

Efficiency [full-load] 

(kW/ton)1 1.26 1.19 1.19 1.00 1.15 1.00 1.15 1.00 1.15 1.00 1.15 1.00

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton)1 1.13 0.86 0.86 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.79

COP [full-load]1 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5

COP [IPLV] 1 3.1 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5

Average Life (yrs) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

725 750 750 875 750 875 750 875 750 875 750 875

600 650 650 750 650 750 650 750 650 750 650 750

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

800 850 850 1000 850 1000 850 1000 850 1000 850 1000

700 700 700 925 700 925 700 925 700 925 700 925

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

1 For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance 

of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. 

2 ASHRAE 90.1 data here are for units larger than 150 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2016)

3 2017 typical and high efficiency levels determined base on the range of products currently available on the market.

4 Capacity is output

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Reciprocating chillers are most cost effective for small loads (30-150 ton range). However, 

reciprocating chiller market share continues to be supplanted by screw and scroll chillers. This trend 

has accelerated with the phase out of R-22, which was the refrigerant of choice for reciprocating 

products, which has in turn driven major manufacturers to replace their reciprocating product lines 

with scroll products (rather than redesign reciprocating products for new refrigerants). As a result, 

product options are very limited.

• Reciprocating chillers can be used in either air-cooled or water cooled applications. Reciprocating 

chillers shown in the data are air-cooled. Air-cooled chillers are less efficient than the water-cooled 

models. Listed efficiencies include matched condensers and their associated energy use.

• ASHRAE 90.1-2016 stipulates minimum efficiencies for all air-cooled chillers together, including 

reciprocating chillers, while water-cooled chillers are separated by positive displacement (e.g., 

reciprocating) versus centrifugal models. Air cooled chiller efficiencies are further split by size for 

more and less than 150 tons. ASHRAE 90.1-2016 also distinguishes between whether the unit will be 

optimized for full load (Path A) or part load operation (Path B). Data here are for Path A; a Path B 

chiller may have slightly lower full-load efficiency in exchange for much higher part-load efficiency. 

For example, for a 100 Ton unit:

— Path A: ≥10.1 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B: ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥ 15.8 IPLV EER

• FEMP recommendations for air-cooled chillers (updated August 2016) are:

— Path A (<150 tons): ≥10.4 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B (<150 tons): ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥15.8 IPLV EER (same as 90.1-2016)

• The highest efficiency reciprocating chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Multiple compressors for staged capacity control

— Improved heat-exchangers

105

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106

Commercial Screw Chillers (Air Cooled Only)

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.12 Typical3 High3 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)4

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Efficiency [full-load] 

(kW/ton)1 1.26 1.19 1.18 0.94 1.13 0.91 1.04 0.86 0.98 0.81 0.94 0.77

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton)1 1.13 0.86 0.84 0.57 0.79 0.53 0.72 0.49 0.68 0.45 0.65 0.41

COP [full-load]1 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.7 3.1 3.9 3.4 4.1 3.6 4.3 3.7 4.6

COP [IPLV] 1 3.1 4.1 4.2 6.2 4.5 6.6 4.9 7.2 5.2 7.8 5.4 8.6

Average Life (yrs) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

650 825 825 900 825 900 825 900 825 900 825 900

525 725 725 800 725 800 725 800 725 800 725 800

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

775 975 975 1,050 975 1,050 975 1,050 975 1,050 975 1,050

725 800 800 900 800 900 800 900 800 900 800 900

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

1 For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance 

of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. 

2 ASHRAE 90.1 data here are for units larger than 150 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2016)

3 2017 typical and high efficiency levels determined base on the range of products currently available on the market.

4 Capacity is output

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Screw chillers are common in 150 - 500 ton capacities, but are most cost effective for small (<300 tons) 

loads; screw chillers dominate the current market for small to mid-size chillers.

• Screw chillers can be used in either air-cooled or water cooled applications. Screw chillers shown in 

the data are air-cooled. Air-cooled chillers are less efficient than the water-cooled models. Listed 

efficiencies include matched condensers and their associated energy use.

• ASHRAE 90.1-2016 stipulates minimum efficiencies for all air-cooled chillers together, including 

screw chillers, while water cooled chillers are separated by positive displacement (e.g., screw) versus 

centrifugal models. Air cooled chiller efficiencies are further split by size for more and less than 150 

tons. 90.1-2016 also distinguishes between whether the unit will be optimized for full load (Path A) 

or part load operation (Path B). Data here are for Path A; a Path B chiller may have slightly lower 

full-load efficiency in exchange for much higher part-load efficiency. For example, for a 100 Ton 

unit:

— Path A: ≥10.1 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B: ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥ 15.8 IPLV EER

• FEMP recommendations for air-cooled chillers (updated August 2016) are:

— Path A (<150 tons): ≥10.4 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B (<150 tons): ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥15.8 IPLV EER (same as 90.1-2016)

• The highest efficiency screw chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Variable speed compressors and/or multiple compressors

— Economizers

— Improved heat-exchangers

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108

Commercial Scroll Chillers (Air-Cooled Only)

1 For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance 

of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. 

2 ASHRAE 90.1 data here are for units smaller than 150 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2016)

3 2017 typical, mid, and high efficiency levels determined base on the range of products currently available on the market.

4 Capacity is output

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.12 Typical3 High3 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)4

50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140

Efficiency [full-load] 

(kW/ton)1 1.23 1.19 1.16 1.10 1.15 1.09 1.11 1.06 1.07 1.02 1.02 0.97

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton)1 0.99 0.88 0.77 0.72 0.75 0.71 0.73 0.68 0.71 0.65 0.69 0.62

COP [full-load]1 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6

COP [IPLV] 1 3.7 4.0 4.6 4.9 4.7 5.0 4.8 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.1 5.7

Average Life (yrs) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

575 800 850 950 850 950 850 950 850 950 850 950

475 650 700 800 700 800 700 800 700 800 700 800

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

825 975 1,025 1,125 1,025 1,125 1,025 1,125 1,025 1,125 1,025 1,125

725 775 825 925 825 925 825 925 825 925 825 925

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Scroll chillers range in size from ~20 tons to ~200 tons and can be used in either air-cooled or water 

cooled applications. They are the most common type of chiller for small chiller plants. The scroll 

chillers shown in the data are air-cooled, which is most common. Air-cooled chillers are less efficient 

than the water-cooled models. Listed efficiencies include matched condensers and their associated 

energy use.

• ASHRAE 90.1-2016 stipulates minimum efficiencies for all air-cooled chillers together, including 

scroll chillers, while water cooled chillers are separated by positive displacement (e.g., scroll) versus 

centrifugal models. Air cooled chiller efficiencies are distinct for more and less than 150 tons. 90.1-

2016 also distinguishes between whether the unit will be optimized for full load (Path A) or part 

load operation (Path B). Data here are for Path A; a Path B chiller may have slightly lower full-load 

efficiency in exchange for much higher part-load efficiency. For example, for a 100 Ton unit:

— Path A: ≥10.1 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B: ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥ 15.8 IPLV EER

• FEMP recommendations for air-cooled chillers (updated Aug. 2016) are:

— Path A (<150 tons): ≥10.4 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B (<150 tons): ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥15.8 IPLV EER (same as 90.1-2016)

• The highest efficiency scroll chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Multiple compressors for staged capacity control

— Improved heat-exchangers

— Variable speed compressor (or other modulation controls)

• With the phase out of R-22, manufacturers have replaced many of their small reciprocating chiller 

products with equivalent scroll products, making them a primary choice for small tonnage 

applications.

109

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110

Commercial Gas-Fired Chillers (Water-Cooled, Direct-Fired Only)

1 For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance 

of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. For the 2012 

analysis, IPLV was not evaluated and is therefore not available (NA). 

2 Capacity is output

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base: 

Absorption

Installed Base: 

Engine-Driven

ASHRAE 90.1 

Absorption

CA Title 24 - Engine

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Typical Capacity (tons)2

150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400

COP [full-load] 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.8

COP [IPLV] NA NA 1.0 2.0 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6

Average Life (yrs) 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750

900 850 850 850 900 850 900 850 900 850 900 850 900 850

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850

1,100 1,050 975 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

20 35 20 35 20 35 20 35 20 35 20 35 20 35

35 50 35 50 35 50 35 50 35 50 35 50 35 50

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Gas-fired chillers are available as either air-cooled (~25-50 tons) or water-cooled (150+ tons). This 

analysis covers only water-cooled chillers of two varieties: absorption and engine-driven vapor 

compression (direct-fired only; indirect steam or hot water driven units are excluded).

• Direct gas firing provides high enough temperatures to operate double effect absorption chillers, 

which operate at a 50-60% higher COP than single effect systems. Triple effect chillers, though not 

commercially available, can boost cooling COP 30-50% beyond double effect chillers. York, Trane, 

and others have worked on prototype direct-fired triple effect absorption chillers, but prohibitively 

high cost of advanced high heat/corrosion-resistant materials required for triple effect absorption 

chillers suggest that this technology will not likely have an impact on the market in the near-term.

• Gas-fired engine-driven chillers pair conventional vapor compression systems(typically screw or 

centrifugal compressors) with natural gas powered-reciprocating engines. They exhibit higher peak 

cooling COP than absorbers, and engine modulation results in better part load performance. Future 

efficiency improvements for engine-driven chillers are not anticipated. Engine driven chillers allow 

the opportunity to recover waste heat for useful purposes. 

• Maintenance costs for engine driven chillers are higher than for other chillers are they include all the 

typical components of a vapor compression chiller in addition to an engine; The engine maintenance 

costs vary depending on the annual run hours of the unit. 

• Limited sales data suggest that the U.S. market for gas-fired chillers is very limited and is mostly for 

replacement units, not for new installations. Recent increases in electric chiller efficiency has 

narrowed the operating cost differential with gas chillers. Asia has the majority of the global gasfired chiller market. 

• Gas-fired chiller installations are particularly valuable in locations where electric rates are high and 

gas prices are low (i.e., low spark spread), where digester or landfill gas sources are available, or 

where waste heat sources are available (e.g., an industrial process or microturbine CHP system) that 

could be used with a hybrid direct/indirect-fired absorption chiller to offset the use of natural gas. 

111

Commercial Gas-Fired Chillers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

112

Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners

* Values shown are for air-cooled units with either electric resistance heating or no heating within the same enclosure.

** In 2018 the ENERGY STAR levels will change to 12.2 EER and 14.0 IEER. 

*** In 2018, new energy conservation standards for Small (<135 kBtu/h) Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment will take effect. 

At this time the DOE-regulated metric will change from EER to IEER, and the minimum IEER will be 12.9.

  In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Small (<135 kBtu/h) Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment will take effect. 

These projections reflect the 2023 minimum efficiency requirement, 14.8 IEER.

DATA

2012 2017 2020** * 2030**** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR** High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Output Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Efficiency (EER)* 10.6 11.2 11.3 11.7 12.8 11.8 12.8 12.2 12.8 12.2 12.8 12.2 12.8

Part Load Efficiency (IEER)* 12.4 - 11.6 11.8 21.5 13.1 21.5 15.1 21.5 15.1 21.5 15.1 21.5

Average Life (yrs) 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,650 10,350 7,150 10,350 7,150 10,350 7,150 10,350 7,150 10,350

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 8,800 8,800 8,800 9,400 14,900 10,250 14,900 10,250 14,900 10,250 14,900 10,250 14,900

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• This analysis focused on small air-cooled commercial packaged rooftop air conditioners 

(90 kBtu/h or 7.5 tons), though there are also standards for many other types of 

commercial air conditioners.

• Amended standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes will take effect in 2018. 

More stringent standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes will take effect in 

2023. 

113

Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners

Cooling Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Heating Type

Federal Standard

Effective 1/1/2010 

Min. EER

ENERGY STAR version 2.2 

Effective 1/1/2011

Min. EER Min. IEER

Small

( ≥ 65 and < 135)

Electric resistance 

or none

11.2 11.7 11.8

Any other type 11.0 11.5 11.6

Large

(≥ 135 and < 240)

Electric resistance 

or none

11.0 11.7 11.8

Any other type 10.8 11.5 11.6

Air-Cooled Commercial Packaged Air Conditioners

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Review Draft

114

Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Driven Rooftop Air Conditioners

* Only one product available in 2012, market has grown slightly in years since. Typical capacity and COP for 2017 and later are averages of units 

currently available.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (tons) 18 11 11 11 11 11

Heating COP 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

Cooling COP 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Average Life (yrs) 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton)

2,850 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400

3,450 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

3,250 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800

4,250 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 62 62 62 62 62 62

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Review Draft

• There are only a few gas-fired engine-driven rooftop units currently available in the US 

market. The first unit was introduced in 2010. It is an 11 ton packaged heat pump with 

dual scroll compressors, variable refrigerant flow, and a variable speed supply fan. 

Engine coolant heat recovery improves the heating mode COP. 

• There are currently no Federal requirements on gas-fired engine-driven rooftop air 

conditioners or heat pumps.

• Annual sales of the engine-driven rooftop heat pump are estimated at less than 5,000 

units per year.

115

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116

Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps

* Values shown are for air-cooled units with either electric resistance heating or no heating within the same enclosure.

** In 2018 the ENERGY STAR levels will change to 11.8 EER, 12.8 IEER, and 3.4 COP. 

*** These efficiency levels reflect DOE's energy conservation standards for Small Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment with a 

2018 compliance deadline. In 2018 the DOE-regulated metric will switch from EER to IEER, and the minimum IEER will be set at 12.2.

  In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Small Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment will take effect. These 

projections reflect the 2023 minimum efficiency requirements IEER of 14.1 and COP of 3.4.

DATA

2012 2017 2020** * 2030**** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR** High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Efficiency (EER)* 10.2 11.0 11.2 11.3 13.1 11.2 13.1 11.7 13.1 11.7 13.1 11.7 13.1

Part Load Efficiency (IEER) 12.0 - 11.3 11.4 20.3 12.4 20.3 14.4 20.3 14.4 20.3 14.4 20.3

COP (Heating) 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.7

Average Life (yrs) 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 6,050 6,050 6,050 6,250 11,000 7,750 11,000 8,750 11,000 8,750 11,000 8,750 11,000

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 7,550 7,550 7,550 7,750 16,050 11,150 16,050 12,750 16,050 12,750 16,050 12,750 16,050

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• This analysis focused on small air-cooled commercial packaged rooftop heat pumps (90 

kBtu/h or 7.5 tons), though there are also standards for many other types of commercial 

heat pumps.

• Amended standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes will take effect in 2018. 

More stringent standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes will take effect in 2023. 

117

Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps

Cooling 

Capacity 

(kBtu/h)

Heating Type

Federal Standard

Effective 1/1/2010

ENERGY STAR version 2.2

Effective 1/1/2011

Min. EER Min. COP 

at 47°F Min. EER Min. IEER Min. COP at 47°F

Small

( ≥ 65 and < 135)

Electric resistance 

or none

11.0 3.3 11.3 11.4 3.35

Any other type 10.8 3.3 – – –

Large

(≥ 135 and < 240)

Electric resistance 

or none

10.6 3.2 10.9 11.0 3.25

Any other type 10.4 3.2 – – –

Air-Cooled Commercial Packaged Heat Pumps

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118

Commercial Ground Source Heat Pumps

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical Mid High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48

COP (Heating)* 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.7 4.0

EER (Cooling)** 12.7 14.1 17.4 19.7 22.1 17.4 22.1 17.4 22.1 17.4 22.1 17.4 22.1

Average Life (yrs)

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 8,500 4,750 5,550 6,100 6,700 5,550 6,700 5,550 6,700 5,550 6,700 5,550 6,700

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

16,500 14,750 15,550 16,100 16,700 15,550 16,700 15,550 16,700 15,550 16,700 15,550 16,700

37,500 21,750 22,550 23,100 23,700 22,550 23,700 22,550 23,700 22,550 23,700 22,550 23,700

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

* COP values listed are assessed at a "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, DOE sets 

standards at a "water loop" test condition. The AHRI directory lists COP ratings at both sets of test conditions and is used to convert between them 

where necessary. 

** EER values listed are assessed at a full-load "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, 

DOE sets standards at a full-load "water loop" test condition. The AHRI directory lists EER ratings at all sets of test conditions and is used to convert 

between them where necessary.

Note: Residential and commercial GSHPs are very similar - the main difference in data presented is the different capacity (3-ton vs 4-ton) and slightly 

higher installation costs for commercial. DOE does not distinguish between residential and commercial units in its regulations.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• The most common commercial ground source heat pump systems are closed-loop in which water or 

anti-freeze solution is circulated through plastic pipes buried underground. Commercial water-to-air 

heat pumps (WAHPs) range in size from 1 ton or less to over 500 tons depending on whether a 

distributed or centralized architecture is used. Distributed systems are more prevalent.

• Most geothermal WAHPs are rated for capacity and efficiency based on the ISO 13256-1 standard. 

Heating and cooling efficiency measurements under this standard include input energy for fans and 

pumps on a proportional basis that only includes that power required to transport air and liquid 

through the heat pump. The reason for this method is to simplify comparisons between heat pumps and 

to allow equipment to be optimized for real world conditions without suffering rating penalties. Real 

world energy use will exceed ratings predictions as a result of higher fluid static pressure requirements.

• ISO 13256-1 cooling rating conditions call for 77F entering water temperature and 80.6F entering air 

temperature. More typical peak design criteria would be 80-90F entering water temperature and 75F 

entering air temperature. As a result, ISO 13256-1 rated cooling efficiency would be higher than typical 

design peak operation.

• Some WAHPs include efficiency data for a part load operating condition as allowed by ISO 13256-1 for 

multiple stage or variable speed compressors. No seasonal energy efficiency metric (analogous to SEER 

or IEER) currently applies to WAHPs. The annual performance of a geothermal WAHP system can vary 

more widely than for other system types due to the large influence of ground loop design and 

characteristics.

• The ENERGY STAR® criteria for ground source heat pumps apply only to residential applications.

• Installation cost is for a closed loop system and includes necessary accessories. The ground loop heat 

exchanger and distribution pumping systems represent a majority of the installation cost.

• Low end WAHPs utilize single stage compressors. Higher efficiency units incorporate multiple stage or 

variable speed compressor controls to improve efficiency as well as humidity and temperature control. 

Variable speed electronically commutated (EC) fan motors also improve overall energy efficiency.

119

Commercial Ground Source Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents
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120

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

*Different levels of standby loss were not included in this analysis. 

**The range of retail and installed costs represent the range from replacement market to new construction market. 

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Storage Capacity (gal) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199

Thermal Efficiency (%) 81 80 82 94 99 82 99 82 99 82 99 82 99

Average Life (yrs) 13 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)**

3,400 3,300 3,450 3,950 4,050 3,450 4,050 3,450 4,050 3,450 4,050 3,450 4,050

4,200 4,100 4,300 4,850 4,950 4,300 4,950 4,300 4,950 4,300 4,950 4,300 4,950

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)**

4,200 4,150 4,300 5,450 5,550 4,300 5,550 4,300 5,550 4,300 5,550 4,300 5,550

6,050 5,950 6,150 6,500 6,600 6,150 6,600 6,150 6,600 6,150 6,600 6,150 6,600

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270
Review Draft

• Input capacity ≥ 75,000 Btu/h, and < 4,000 Btu/h per gallon of stored water 

• Federal standard1:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 80%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h) : Input Rate/800 + 110 × (Rated Volume)1/2

• ENERGY STAR requirements:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 94%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h): 0.84 × [(Input Rate/800) + 110 × (Rated 

Volume)1/2]

• Baseline units are typically constructed similarly to residential units, though with 

higher input capacities (and often higher storage volumes).

• High-efficiency units include condensing heat exchangers (typically stainless or 

enameled steel) to extract additional heat by condensing water vapor in flue gases. 

Condensing units also include an inducer fan system or power burner. The heat 

exchanger is typically contained within the tank, but some designs consist of an 

external heating module attached to a storage tank. 

• Maintenance consists of sediment and scale removal once or twice per year. 

Estimated cost of $270 for annual maintenance.

121

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

1 Energy Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Water Heaters, Hot Water Supply Boilers

and Unfired Hot Water Storage Tanks. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Annual shipments have fluctuated from 99,000 units in 2000 to 

80,000 units in 2012, back to 99,000 units in 2016. 

122

Source: http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Commercial-Storage-Water-Heaters-Historical-Data.aspx

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents
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123

Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

*Different levels of standby loss were not included in this analysis. 

**The range of retail equipment and installed costs represents the range from replacement market to new construction market. 

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Storage Capacity (gal) 119 119 119 119 119 119 119

Typical Input Capacity (kW) 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Thermal Efficiency (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)**

2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200

Total Installed Cost (2017$)**

3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800

3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Federal standard1:

— Maximum standby loss (%/h) : 0.30 + 27/Measured Storage Volume

— Minimum thermal efficiency: no standard, but all units ≥ 98% anyway

• Storage capacity: typically 50 to 120 gallons, though smaller and larger units exist for 

specialized applications

• Commercial units are typically constructed similar to residential units, though with 

higher input capacities (and often higher storage volumes).

• There is very little variation in thermal efficiency on the market; variation in standby 

loss is typically due to tank design and insulation thickness. 

• Maintenance consists of sediment and scale removal once or twice per year. Estimated 

cost of $50 for annual maintenance. 

124

Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

1 Energy Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Water Heaters, Hot Water Supply Boilers

and Unfired Hot Water Storage Tanks. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

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125

Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

Annual shipments increased more than 50 percent over 12 years from 

44 thousand units in 2000 to 67 thousand units in 2012. Since 2012, 

shipments have increased by 89%, with the largest increase of 44% 

occurring in 2016.

Source: http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Commercial-Storage-Water-Heaters-Historical-Data.aspx

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126

Commercial Heat Pump Water Heaters

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Water Flow Rate (gal/min) 34 34 34 34 34 34

Typical Output Capacity (kW) 50 50 50 50 50 50

Coefficient of Performance (COPh) 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9

Average Life (yrs) 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 47,100 47,100 47,100 47,100 47,100 47,100

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 50,950 50,950 50,950 50,950 50,950 50,950

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 100 100 100 100 100 100

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127

• There are no integrated commercial HPWHs (CHPWHs) on the market (i.e., heat pump 

module and storage tank combined in one unit); all units are add-on units which are 

typically designed to be used with a storage tank(s).

• CHPWHs serve only a small portion of the commercial water heating (CWH) market. 

Three manufacturers (including only one major CWH manufacturer) sell CHPWHs.

• CHPWHs can extract heat from either air or water for heating potable water (“airsource” or “water-source”). The capacity of air-source CHPWHs falls at lower ambient 

air temperatures.

• Air-source CHPWHs cool the surrounding air, which can be desirable when installed 

indoors in applications with a year-round cooling load (e.g., a commercial kitchen).

• Output capacities for CHPWHs range from 17 kW to over 70 kW for air-source units 

and over 600 kW for water-source units.

• Some commercial applications require water as hot as 180 °F, such as dishwashing; 

however, most CHPWHs cannot deliver hot water at temperatures higher than 150 °F. 

• There are no current Federal standards for CHPWHs, but DOE prescribes a test 

procedure for determining COPh for CHPWHs.

• ENERGY STAR levels for CWH equipment are under revision. The public final draft of 

the updated specification includes a COPh level of 3.0 for CHPWHs. 

Commercial Heat Pump Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents
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128

Commercial Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

*Different levels of standby loss were not included in this analysis. 

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Storage Capacity 

(gal) 70 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Thermal Efficiency (%) 79 80 81 82 81 82 81 82 81 82 81 82

Average Life (yrs) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168

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Review Draft

• Input capacity ≥ 105,000 Btu/h, and < 4,000 Btu/h per gallon of stored water 

• Federal standard1:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 80%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h): Input Rate/800 + 110 × (Rated Volume)1/2

• Condensing units do not exist, thus the highest thermal efficiency on the market is 86%.

• Commercial units are typically constructed similar to residential units, though with 

higher input capacities (and often higher storage volumes).

• Maintenance consists of sediment and scale removal once or twice per year. Estimated 

cost of $100–$200 per year for one or two cleanings performed by a plumber.

• The market for commercial oil-fired storage water heaters is very small; shipments are 

approximately 3% of shipments for commercial gas-fired storage water heaters.

129

Commercial Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

1 Energy Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Water Heaters, Hot Water Supply Boilers

and Unfired Hot Water Storage Tanks. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

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130

Commercial Electric Booster Water Heaters

* Maintenance costs negligible.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (gal)

6 6 6 6 6 6

16 16 16 16 16 16

Thermal Efficiency (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (yrs)

3 3 3 3 3 3

10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 

1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300

2,800 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 

1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

3,000 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)* - - - - - -

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131

Commercial Gas-fired Booster Water Heaters

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal)

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Thermal Efficiency (%) 80 80 80 91 80 91 80 91 80 91 80 91

Average Life (yrs)

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 

4,700 4,900 4,900 8,000 4,900 8,000 4,900 8,000 4,900 8,000 4,900 8,000

6,800 7,700 7,700 9,500 7,700 9,500 7,700 9,500 7,700 9,500 7,700 9,500

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 

5,000 5,200 5,200 8,300 5,200 8,300 5,200 8,300 5,200 8,300 5,200 8,300

7,100 8,000 8,000 9,800 8,000 9,800 8,000 9,800 8,000 9,800 8,000 9,800

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Booster water heaters are installed, often at the point of use, in series with the main 

service water heating system to boost service water temperatures. The main service 

water heating system may provide 110-140 °F water, and the booster water heater may 

increase that temperature to 180-195 °F. Typical commercial applications for booster 

water heaters include commercial dishwashers, laundromats, hospitals, and car washes.

• Commercial booster water heaters are regulated by DOE as either storage or 

instantaneous water heaters, depending on the ratio of input capacity to storage 

volume. Units with input capacity < 4,000 Btu/h per gallon of stored water are storage 

water heaters; all other units are instantaneous water heaters.

• DOE’s regulations do not currently include standards for electric instantaneous water 

heaters, but standards are included for electric storage water heaters, gas-fired 

instantaneous water heaters, and gas-fired storage water heaters. 

• Booster water heaters typically have short lifetimes because of high usage and extreme 

temperatures.

• Shipments are small due to the limited number of applications.

132

Commercial Booster Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents
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133

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

*Commercial gas-fired instantaneous water heaters are categorized into two groups: tankless water heater and hot water supply boiler. Tankless units are 

similar in design to residential tankless units. The hot water supply boiler has a much higher input and is similar in design to boilers. The large variation of 

total input capacity and design causes a large range of costs. The low and high range of retail and installed costs represent the differences in design, as well 

as the cost ranges arising from replacement versus new construction markets.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 

250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399

Thermal Efficiency (%) 80 80 92 94 98 92 98 92 98 92 98 92 98

Average Life (yrs)

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)*

1,900 1,900 2,200 2,250 2,300 2,200 2,300 2,200 2,300 2,200 2,300 2,200 2,300

4,800 4,800 8,450 8,800 9,150 8,450 9,150 8,450 9,150 8,450 9,150 8,450 9,150

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)*

2,550 2,550 3,700 3,750 3,800 3,700 3,800 3,700 3,800 3,700 3,800 3,700 3,800

11,000 11,000 11,300 11,650 12,050 11,300 12,050 11,300 12,050 11,300 12,050 11,300 12,050

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2017$)* 40 40 100 100 110 100 110 100 110 100 110 100 110
Review Draft

• Input capacity ≥ 200,000 Btu/h, and ≥ 4,000 Btu/h per gallon of stored water 

• Federal standard1:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 80%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h): Input Rate/800 + 110 x (Rated Volume)1/2

• ENERGY STAR requirements:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 94% 

• Wall-mounted (“tankless”) units typically top out at ~400,000 Btu/h and are similar in 

design to residential tankless units. Floor-mounted units (“circulating” or “volume” 

water heaters) are similar in design to boilers and can have input capacities in the 

millions of Btu/h. Floor-mounted units are typically installed with a storage tank.

• Despite high available input capacities, some installations use multiple units staged 

together, which may have reliability and/or efficiency benefits.

• Similar to storage water heaters, higher efficiencies are achieved with condensing 

operation, which requires a condensing heat exchanger and inducer fan or power 

burner. Some units include both non-condensing and condensing heat exchangers, 

while others include a single condensing heat exchanger.

• When replacing a storage water heater with an instantaneous water heater, there may 

be significant additional costs to upsize the gas supply line and change the venting.

134

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

1 Energy Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Water Heaters, Hot Water Supply Boilers

and Unfired Hot Water Storage Tanks. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

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135

Commercial Solar Water Heaters

* Costs are for an indirect (active closed loop) system, including tank and backup heater. Smaller capacity/cost systems are typical for southern & 

western states (>2/3 of the current market). Higher capacity/cost systems are required in colder/cloudier regions.

** ENERGY STAR requires OG-300 rating from SRCC. Most installations use SRCC rated collectors; a high efficiency option is not applicable.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base

Typical / 

ENERGY 

STAR**

Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.) 83 83 83 83 83 83

Solar Fraction (SF) 0.5 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56

Solar Energy Factor (SEF) 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Average Life (yrs) 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)*

8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300

9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500

Total Installed Cost (2017$)*

11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000

13,100 13,100 13,100 13,100 13,100 13,100

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 25 25 25 25 25 25

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136

Commercial Solar Water Heaters

• Solar water heaters are not subject to federal energy conservation standards, the ENERGY 

STAR requirements are:

• Commercial solar water heaters are typically custom designed for a specific installation.

• One major CWH manufacturer sells a commercial integrated solar water heater similar to 

residential designs that includes an indirect solar water heat exchanger and a gas-fired backup 

heat exchanger, and this model is certified to the Solar Rating and Certification Corporation 

(SRCC)’s OG-300, “Operating Guidelines and Minimum Standards for Certifying Solar Water 

Heating Systems.” 

• Commercial solar water heaters may include backup heating, from sources such as electric 

resistance or hydronic heat (supplied from a gas-fired boiler or geothermal heat pump).

• Storage volumes of tanks for commercial solar water heaters can span from 140 gallons to 

over 2,000 gallons.

• SRCC’s OG-300 can be used to certify commercial systems, but most commercial systems are 

larger and unique, so this certification program is mostly used for residential solar water 

heaters.

— Many incentive programs require that solar collectors for commercial systems be certified 

to SRCC’s certification program for collectors, OG-100.

Applicable 

Products

Backup 

Fuel

ENERGY STAR 

Requirement Test Method

Whole-home 

solar units

Gas SEF ≥ 1.2 SRCC – OG-300: Operating Guidelines and Minimum 

Electric SEF ≥ 1.8 Standards for Certifying Solar Water Heating Systems 

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137

Commercial Natural Gas Range with Griddle and Oven

*ENERGY STAR does not cover combination products that include griddles, ranges, and ovens in one single package. The ENERGY STAR levels provided 

here reflect specifications for individual products. Range tops are not covered by ENERGY STAR.

** Products in the commercial cooking market generally do not scale in price with relation to cooking efficiency. Distributors also do not provide this 

information.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR* High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Input Capacity (kBtu) 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 30 30 38 52 30 52 30 52 30 52 30 52

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 35 35 46 50 35 50 35 50 35 50 35 50

Range - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 30 30 N/A 40 30 40 30 40 30 40 30 40

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(Btu/h/ft2

) 3,000 3,000 2,650 1,080 3,000 1,180 3,000 1,180 3,000 1,180 3,000 1,180

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) 18,000 18,000 12,000 7,180 18,000 7,180 18,000 7,180 18,000 7,180 18,000 7,180

Range - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) 3,600 3,600 N/A 1,900 3,600 1,900 3,600 1,900 3,600 1,900 3,600 1,900

Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)** 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)* – – – – – – – – – – – –

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138

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR* High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Input Capacity (kW) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 65 70 70 86 70 86 70 86 70 86 70 86

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 65 65 N/A 80 65 80 65 80 65 80 65 80

Range - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 75 75 N/A 85 75 85 75 85 75 85 75 85

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(kW/ft2

) 0.44 0.34 0.32 0.20 0.34 0.20 0.34 0.20 0.34 0.20 0.34 0.20

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (kW) 1.50 1.50 1.00 0.90 1.50 0.90 1.50 0.90 1.50 0.90 1.50 0.90

Range - Idle Energy Rate (kW)** N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)*** 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)**** – – – – – – – – – – – –

*ENERGY STAR does not cover combination products that include griddles, ranges, and ovens in one single package. The ENERGY STAR levels provided 

here reflect specifications for individual products. Range tops are not covered by ENERGY STAR.

**No data on electric range top idle energy rates.

*** Products in the commercial cooking market generally do not scale in price with relation to cooking efficiency. Distributors also do not provide this 

information.

**** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Commercial Electric Gas Range with Griddle and Oven Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Combined product that typically includes 2-6 range tops, a 24 in. x 24 in. griddle 

surface, and one or two half- or full-size ovens. 

• Combined product is not covered by ENERGY STAR. However, the individual product 

ENERGY STAR specifications are provided below.

• ENERGY STAR does not provide certification for range tops.

• There are no Federal standards for commercial cooking products.

• Product pricing in this market does not scale with efficiency, but rather depend on a 

number of other factors such as brand name, aesthetics, and additional features.

139

Product ENERGY STAR 

Requirements

Gas Electric

Griddle

Cooking Energy Efficiency ≥ 38% ≥ 70%

Normalized Idle Energy Rate ≤ 2,650 Btu/h per 

ft2

≤ 0.320 kW per ft2

Oven

Cooking Energy Efficiency ≥ 46% ≥ 71%

Idle Energy Rate ≤ 12,000 Btu/h Half size: ≤1.00 kW

Full size: ≤1.60 kW

Commercial Ranges with Griddles and Ovens Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

140

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

State 

Standards Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Interior Volume (ft3

) 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4

Maximum Idle Energy Rate (W) 900 856 856 297 154 856 154 856 154 856 154 856 154

Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 2,500 3,850 3,850 4,200 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 2,500 3,850 3,850 4,200 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)* – – – – – – – – – – – – –

* Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Used in commercial kitchens to keep food warm until it is served.

• Many shapes and sizes, but interior volumes around 21.4 ft3 typical in many settings.

• Annual unit energy consumption can range from < 1,000 to > 30,000 kWh/y, depending 

on size, efficiency, and usage.

• Energy performance metric is “Idle Energy Consumption Rate” in Watts, measured 

using ASTM Standard F2140-11.

• No Federal standards, but eight identical State standards, first took effect in California 

in 2006, now considered the typical or “baseline” product. ENERGY STAR version 2.0 

took effect October 1, 2011.

• Maximum Idle Energy Consumption Rate for products 12 ≤ V < 28:

— State standards: ≤ 40 × V (baseline)

— ENERGY STAR: ≤ 2.0 × V + 254 (about 65% below baseline)

where V is interior volume in ft3.

• The most efficient products are about 80% below baseline.

• Energy savings achieved with insulation, automatic door closers, magnetic door 

gaskets, and Dutch doors (half-doors).

141

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

142

Appendix A

Data Sources

Navigant Consulting, Inc.

1200 19 St. NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

(202) 973-2400

www.navigantconsulting.com

A-1

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces

A-2

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

(North)

High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Navigant Navigant EERE

Navigant

AFUE (%) Navigant Navigant EERE EERE

ENERGY 

STAR 

v4.1

AHRI

Electric Consumption 

(kWh/yr)

EERE/

Navigant Average Life (yrs) EERE 2015

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

North & Rest of Country
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces

A-3

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) Navigant EERE

Navigant

AFUE (%) Navigant EERE Navigant ENERGY 

STAR v4.1 AHRI

Electric Consumption (kWh) EERE EERE 2011

Average Life (yrs) EERE EERE 2015

Retail Equipment Cost ($) EERE EERE 2011

Total Installed Cost ($) EERE EERE 2011

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) EERE EERE 2011
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Gas-Fired Boilers

A-4

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) EERE 2007 EERE 2015 (Section 5.4.1 of the TSD)

Navigant

AFUE (%) EERE 2007/ 

Navigant EERE 2007 EERE 2007 AHRI 

Database

ENERGY 

STAR v3.0

AHRI 

Database

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($) EERE 2007

EERE 2015 (LCC Analysis Spreadsheet "Statistics" tab)

Total Installed Cost ($) EERE 2007

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) EERE 2007 EERE 2015 (Section 8.2.2.4 of the TSD)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Oil-Fired Boilers

A-5

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) EERE EERE 2015 (Section 5.4.1 of the TSD)

Navigant

AFUE (%) EERE / 

Navigant EERE 2007 EERE 2007 AHRI 

Database

ENERGY 

STAR v3.0 EERE 2007

Average Life (yrs) EERE EERE

Retail Equipment Cost 

($) EERE EERE 2015 (LCC Analysis Spreadsheet "Statistics" tab)

Total Installed Cost ($) EERE EERE 2015 (LCC Analysis Spreadsheet "Statistics" tab)

Annual Maintenance 

Cost ($) EERE EERE 2015 (Section 8.2.2.4 of the TSD)
Review Draft

A-6

Data Sources » Residential Electric Resistance Furnaces

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors

Navigant

Efficiency (%) DOE/ASHRAE

Average Life (yrs) Distributors

Retail Equipment Cost ($) RS Means 2017

Total Installed Cost ($) RS Means 2017

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

A-7

Data Sources » Residential Electric Resistance Heaters

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors

Navigant

Efficiency (%) Navigant

Average Life (yrs) Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 2017 RS Means

Total Installed Cost ($) 2017 RS Means

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Central Air Conditioners

A-8

South (Hot-Dry and Hot-Humid)

North (Rest of Country)

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) EERE EERE

Navigant

SEER

EERE / 

Navigant

EERE / 

Navigant eCFR EERE ENERGY 

STAR EERE

Average Life (yrs)

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) EERE EERE

Navigant

SEER

EERE / 

Navigant

EERE / 

Navigant eCFR EERE ENERGY 

STAR EERE

Average Life (yrs)

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Air Source Heat Pumps

A-9

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) EERE / AHRI EERE

Navigant

SEER (Cooling)

EERE / 

Navigant

EERE / 

Navigant eCFR EERE ENERGY STAR EERE

HSPF (Heating)

EERE

Average Life (yrs)

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Ground Source Heat Pumps

A-10

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) AHRI/Navigant EERE

Navigant

COP (Heating) Navigant AHRI 

Database 

ASHRAE 

90.1-2016

AHRI 

Database 

ENERGY 

STAR

AHRI 

Database 

EER (Cooling) Navigant AHRI 

Database 

AHRI 

Database 

ENERGY 

STAR

AHRI 

Database 

Average Life (yrs) Navigant / EERE

Navigant / EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Distributors/IGSHPA

/EERE 

2009/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($)

Distributors/IGSHPA

/EERE 

2009/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Room Air Conditioners

A-11

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr) Distributors AHAM 

Navigant

EER and CEER Navigant EERE CCMS ENERGY 

STAR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) Appliance Magazine, 2012

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) Navigant Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Portable Air Conditioners

A-12

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr) 

EERE Navigant

CEER

Average Life (yrs)

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps

A-13

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Manufacturer

Navigant

Heating (COP) Product Literature

Cooling (COP) Product Literature

Annual Electric Use (kWh/yr) Product Literature

Average Life (yrs) Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) PERC

Total Installed Cost ($) Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

A-14

Data Sources » Residential Cord Wood Stoves

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors / Product Literature

Navigant

Efficiency (Non-Catalytic) (HHV)

Navigant / 

Literature

EPA Default / 

Literature / 

Navigant

EPA Certified Wood Heater 

List August 2016

Efficiency (Catalytic) (HHV)

Average Life (yrs) Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) Product Lit. / 

Dealers Product Literature/Dealers

Total Installed Cost ($) Dealers

Dealers/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Dealers / 

Navigant
Review Draft

A-15

Data Sources » Residential Wood Pellet Stoves

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors / Product Literature

Navigant

Efficiency (HHV) Navigant/ 

Literature

EPA 

Default/Literat

ure/Navigant

EPA Default/EPA Certified 

Wood Heater List August 

2016/Navigant

Average Life (yrs) Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) Product Literature/ Dealers

Total Installed Cost ($)

Dealers Dealers/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

A-16

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI / 

Distributors Navigant EERE 2010/AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant EERE 2016 CCMS ENERGY 

STAR AHRI/CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors EERE 2010 Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Distributors / RS Means 

2010 EERE 2010

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 2010

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

A-17

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI / 

Distributors

Navigant

EERE 2010/AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant EERE 2016 AHRI/CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors

EERE 2010

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Distributors 

/ RS Means 

2007

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 2010

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

A-18

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI / 

Distributors AHRI EERE 2010/AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant EERE 2016 AHRI/CCMS AHRI

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors EERE 2010 EERE 2010 Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Distributors 

/ RS Means 

2010

EERE 2010

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) EERE 2010

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Heat Pump Storage Water Heaters

A-19

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI Navigant AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant Navigant CCMS ENERGY STAR AHRI/CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) RS Means 

2010 / ACEEE 

2007

EERE 2010 Distributors EERE 2010 Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) EERE 2010

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 2010

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Solar Water Heaters

A-20

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical / 

ENERGY STAR** Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.) SRCC / Navigant

Navigant

Overall Efficiency (Solar Fraction) DOE / SRCC / Navigant

Solar Energy Factor SRCC / Navigant

Average Life (yrs) DOE / Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost1 (2017$) RS Means Online 2017

Total Installed Cost1 (2017$) RS Means Online 2017

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Instantaneous Water Heaters

A-21

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr) EERE AHRI EERE 2010/AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant Navigant EERE 2016 CCMS ENERGY 

STAR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 

Distributors 

/ RS Means 

2010

Total Installed Cost (2017$) DEER 2008 EERE 2010

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) Navigant

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Refrigerator-Freezers and Freezers

A-22

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

) EERE 2011 / Navigant

Navigant

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr) Navigant EERE 2011 Navigant ENERGY STAR Navigant

Average Life (yrs)

EERE 2011 / Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Natural Gas Cooktops

A-23

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors / Product Literature

Navigant

Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kBtu/yr) EERE Navigant EERE 

Cooking Efficiency (%) Navigant

Average Life (yrs)

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) Navigant / EERE 
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Clothes Dryers (Electric)

A-24

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3) Navigant / CCMS

Navigant

CEF (lb/kWh) EERE / Navigant EERE CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE / Navigant 

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Clothes Dryers (Gas)

A-25

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 

EERE / Navigant

CCMS

Navigant

CEF (lb/kWh) EERE CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE / Navigant

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

)

Navigant

Navigant CCMS

CCMS

CCMS

CCMS

Navigant

Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (ft3

/kWh/cycle) AHAM / 

Navigant EERE

ENERGY 

STAR

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3

)

ENERGY 

STAR

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Water Consumption 

(gal/cycle) Navigant / EERE

Hot Water Energy (kWh/cycle)

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) Navigant 

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle)

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) EERE / Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Navigant / RS Means 2016

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE

Data Sources » Residential Clothes Washers

A-26

Front-Loading

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Clothes Washers

A-27

Top-Loading

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

)

Navigant

Navigant CCMS

CCMS

CCMS

CCMS

Navigant

Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (ft3

/kWh/cycle) AHAM / 

Navigant EERE ENERGY STAR

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3

)

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Water Consumption (gal/cycle) Navigant / EERE

Hot Water Energy (kWh/cycle)

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) Navigant 

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle)

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) EERE / Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Navigant / RS Means 2016

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Dishwashers

A-28

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)

AHAM 2014 / EERE 

2012

CFR

Navigant / 

CCMS / 

ENERGY 

STAR

ENERGY 

STAR EERE 2016 

Navigant

Water Consumption 

(gal/cycle)

Water Heating Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) EERE 2016

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2016 / Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE 2012 EERE 2016

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) Navigant

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces

A-29

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) AHRI EERE

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%) AHRI 10 CFR 

431.77 DOE CCMS

Average Life (yrs)

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces

A-30

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical 

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 

AHRI

DOE CCMS

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%) 10 CFR 431.77 DOE CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($) EERE EERE / Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters

A-31

DATA 

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Small Large Small Large Small / Large

Typical Capacity (kBTU/h) Distributors/Navigant

Navigant

Efficiency (%) Navigant

Average Life (yrs) Technology Cost and Performance File for Commercial Model 

for AEO2010

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 

RS Means 2017

Total Installed Cost ($) 

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Boilers

A-32

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kW) BSRIA

Navigant

Efficiency (%) EERE / Navigant

Average Life (yrs)

ASHRAE 2007 

HVAC 

Applications

ASHRAE 2015 

HVAC 

Applications

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

RS Means 

2013/Navigant Total Installed Cost ($) RS Means 2017

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers

A-33

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard* Typical MidRange High Typical High Typical/High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Navigant EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%)

ASHRAE 

Standard 

90.1-2004 

/ Navigant

EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant

Average Life (yrs) EERE EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) RS Means 

2011 EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($) RS Means 

2011 EERE Issued Final Rule Issued Final Rule

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($) Navigant EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers

A-34

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Navigant

Issued Final Rule

(Energy Conservation Program: Energy 

Conservation Standards for Commercial

Packaged Boilers)

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%)

ASHRAE 

Standard 90.1-

2004

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

RS Means 

2011 / 

Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($) EERE
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Centrifugal Chillers

A-35

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 90.1 Typical High Typical / High

Typical 

Capacity 

(tons)

IPCC/ARB/TEAP/Navigant

Navigant

Efficiency 

(kW/ton)

ASHRAE 

90.1-

2010/FEMP/

eSource/Pro

duct 

Literature

ASHRAE 

90.1-2016 

(>400 TR)

Product Lit

Progress 

Energy Data 

Sheet

COP

Average Life 

(yrs)

2007 

ASHRAE 

Applications 

Handbook

2015 ASHRAE Applications Handbook A37 

Table 4

Retail 

Equipment 

Cost ($/ton) RS 

Means/Distri

butors/Navig

ant

RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed 

Cost ($/ton)

Annual 

Maintenance 

Cost ($/ton)

Navigant/Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Reciprocating Chillers

A-36

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 90.1 Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (tons) BSRIA/DEER

Navigant

Efficiency (kW/ton) ASHRAE 90.1-

2010/DEER/ 

FEMP/Product 

Literature

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 (>150 TR)

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 (>150 TR) Product Lit

COP

Average Life (yrs) Manufacturers 2015 ASHRAE Applications Handbook A37 Table 4

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton)

RS Means/

Distributors/

Navigant

RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton) Navigant/Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Screw Chillers

A-37

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 90.1 Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (tons) Navigant

Navigant

Efficiency (kW/ton)

Navigant ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 (>150 TR)

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 (>150 TR) Product Lit

COP

Average Life (yrs) Manufacturers FacilitiesNet 

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton)

RS Means 

2013/Distributor

s/Navigant

RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton) Navigant/Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Scroll Chillers

A-38

SOURCE

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 90.1 Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (tons) Navigant/Manufacturers

Navigant

Efficiency [full-load/IPLV] 

(kW/ton)

Navigant ASHRAE 90.1-2016 

(>150TR)

Product 

Lit/Navigant Product Lit

COP [full-load/IPLV]

Average Life (yrs) Manufacturers

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton)

Manufacturers/RS 

Means 

2013/Navigant

RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton) Navigant /Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Chillers

A-39

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base: 

Absorption

Installed Base: 

Engine-Driven

ASHRAE 90.1 

absorption

CA Title 24 -

engine Absorption Engine-Driven Absorption / Engine-Driven

Typical Capacity (tons) BSRIA/Distributors

Navigant

COP [full-load]

Product Literature/Navigant

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 directfired double 

effect

CA Title 24 gas 

Engine 

standard

Product Lit

COP [IPLV]

Average Life (yrs) 2007 ASHRAE Applications 

Handbook/Distributors 2015 ASHRAE Applications Handbook A37 Table 4

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

Manufacturer/Distributors/RS 

Means 2013/GIT/Navigant RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost 

($/ton)

Annual Maintenance 

Cost ($/ton) Navigant/Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners

A-40

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Output Capacity 

(kBtu/h) AHRI / Navigant EERE

Navigant

Efficiency (EER) Distributors / 

Navigant eCFR

EERE ENERGY STAR EERE

Part Load Efficiency (IEER) EERE N/A

Average Life (yrs) EERE 

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Distributors / 

Navigant / DEER, 

2008

EERE

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) EERE
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Driven Rooftop Air Conditioners/Heat Pumps

A-41

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (tons)

Product Literature/Navigant

Navigant

Heating COP

Cooling COP

Average Life (yrs) Manufacturer/RS Means 2017/Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton) Abuheiba 2017/Manufacturer/RS Means 

2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

Manufacturer/RS Means 2017/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps

A-42

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) EERE

Navigant

Efficiency (EER)

ASHRAE 

Standard 

90.1-2004 / 

Navigant

eCFR EERE / 

Navigant

ENERGY 

STAR

EERE / 

Navigant

Part Load Efficiency EERE N/A

EERE EERE

COP (Heating) EERE / 

Navigant eCFR

Average Life (yrs)

Distributors / 

RS Means 

2010 / DEER 

/ Navigant

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Ground Source Heat Pumps

A-43

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical Mid High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) US DOE/EIA EERE

Navigant

COP (Heating)

Navigant ASHRAE 

90.1-2016 AHRI Database

EER (Cooling)

Average Life (yrs) Navigant / EERE

Navigant / EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($) Distributors/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($) US DOD/IGSHPA/MA 

DOER/CEFIA/ASHRAE

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)

Geothermal Heat Pump 

Consortium, Inc. (US 

DOE Contract DE-FG07-

95ID13347)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

A-44

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Storage Capacity 

(gal)

Arthur D. 

Little / 

Distributors 

/ AHRI CCMS

Navigant

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) AHRI

Thermal Efficiency (%)

EERE / 

ASHRAE 

Standard 

90.1-2004 / 

Navigant

CFR CCMS ENERGY 

STAR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2001

EERE 2016 Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) Distributors 

/ CEC / 

Navigant Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE/Distributors
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

A-45

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current Standard Typical Typical 

Typical Storage Capacity (gal) Navigant / Product 

Literature 

EERE 2016

Navigant

Typical Input Capacity (kW) Product Literature 

Thermal Efficiency (%) Navigant

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2016

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$) EERE 2016 /Navigant EERE 2016

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Heat Pump Storage Water Heaters

A-46

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Storage Capacity (gal)

Distributors/Navigant

Navigant

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 

Coefficient of Performance (COP) Distributors

Average Life (yrs) EERE/Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)

RS Means Online2017

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) Navigant

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

A-47

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Storage Capacity 

(gal)

AHRI / Navigant CCMS/Navigant

Navigant

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 

Thermal Efficiency (%) Navigant CFR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2001

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Distributors / Navigant 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Booster Water Heaters

A-48

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (gal)

Product 

Literature / 

Navigant

Product 

Literature

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%)

Product Literature

Average Life (yrs)

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Distributors/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Booster Water Heaters

A-49

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) Distributors/Navigant

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%)

Product 

Literature/ 

Navigant

CFR Product Literature/ Navigant

Average Life (yrs) Product Literature/Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Distributors/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

A-50

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENEGRY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity 

(kBtu/h) CCMS

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%) Navigant CCMS ENERGY 

STAR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2016

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE 2016 

/Navigant EERE 2016 Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2017$)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Solar Water Heaters

A-51

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical / ENERGY STAR Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.) SRCC / Navigant

Navigant

Overall Efficiency (Solar Fraction) DOE / SRCC / Navigant

Solar Energy Factor SRCC / Navigant

Average Life (yrs) DOE / Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) RS Means Online 2017

Total Installed Cost (2017$) RS Means Online 2017

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

A-52

Data Sources » Commercial Natural Gas Ranges, Griddles, and Ovens

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High

Total Input Capacity (kBtu) Distributors

Navigant

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency 

(%)

Navigant FSTC

ENERGY STAR

FSTC

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%)

N/A Range Burner - Cooking Energy 

Efficiency (%)

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(Btu/h/ft2) ENERGY STAR

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) FEMP

Range - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) FSTC - FSTC

Average Life (yrs) FSTC

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)** Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) FSTC / Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)* FSTC

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

A-53

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Ranges, Griddles, and Ovens

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High

Total Input Capacity (kW) Distributors

Navigant

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) Navigant FSTC ENERGY STAR FSTC

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) Navigant FSTC - FSTC

Range Top - Cooking Energy Efficiency 

(%) Navigant FSTC - FSTC

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(W/ft2

) Navigant FSTC ENERGY STAR FSTC

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (kW) Navigant FSTC ENERGY STAR FSTC

Range Top - Idle Energy Rate (kW) N/A

Average Life (yrs) FSTC

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) FSTC / Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)* FSTC

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

A-54

Data Sources » Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High

Interior Volume (ft3

) FEMP

Navigant

Maximum Idle Energy Rate (W) CEE / 

Navigant FEMP

Average Life (yrs) FEMP

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors / ENERGY STAR Savings Calculator / Navigant

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) FSTC

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

196

Appendix B

References

Navigant Consulting, Inc.

1200 19 St. NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

(202) 973-2400

www.navigantconsulting.com

B-1

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

B-2

• Abuheibaa, et. al. (2017). Challenges and opportunities of Gas Engine Heat Pumps – Two Case 

Studies. Retrieved September 2017 from: http://hpc2017.org/wpcontent/uploads/2017/05/P.4.7.4-Challenges-and-Opportunities-of-Gas-Engine-DrivenHeat-Pumps-Two-Case-Studies.pdf

• ACEEE. (2007). Top Rated Energy-Efficient Appliances. American Council for an EnergyEfficient Economy.

• AHAM. (n.d.). Directory of Certified Products. Retrieved September 2010 from: 

http://www.ahamdir.com/dirsvc/aham.nsf/fraRAC?OpenFrameset&pgm=Room%20Air%2

0Conditioners

• AHAM. (2014). Trends in Energy Efficiency.

• AHRI. (n.d.). Directory of Certified Product Performance. Retrieved September 2010, June 

2013, and September/November 2017 from: 

http://www.ahridirectory.org/ahridirectory/pages/home.aspx

• Alabama Power (n.d.). Chillers: Compare Maintenance Costs. Retrieved September 2017 

from: http://www.alabamapower.com/business/ways-to-save/chillers-space-coolingoptions/compare-maintenance-costs.html

References
Review Draft

B-3

• Appliance Design Magazine. (n.d.) BNP Media.

— Page 7. March 2013 Issue.

— Page 5. March 2014 Issue.

— Page 6. March 2015 Issue.

— Page 5. March 2017 Issue. 

• Appliance Magazine. (2012). “The U.S. Appliance Industry: Market Value, Life Expectancy 

& Replacement Picture 2012.” UBM Canon.

• Appliance Magazine. (n.d.).

— “U.S. Appliance Industry Statistical Review: 2000 to YTD 2010.” Canon Data Products 

Group. July 2010.

— “U.S. Appliance Shipment Statistics Monthly: January 2011.” Canon Data Products 

Group. January 2011.

— “2011 Full-Year Appliance Industry Shipment Statistics.” UBM Canon. March 2012.

— “2012 Full-Year Appliance Industry Shipment Statistics and Year-In-Review.” UBM 

Canon. March 2013.

• ASHRAE. (2004). ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2004. ASHRAE, Inc.

• ASHRAE. (2007). ANSI/ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-2007. ASHRAE, Inc.

• ASHRAE. (2015). 2015 ASHRAE Handbook – HVAC Applications. ASHRAE Inc.

References
Review Draft

B-4

• Building Services Research and Information Association & Ducker Research Company. (1997, 

1998). U.S. Market for Central Plant Air Conditioning; Market for Ducted Warm Air Central 

Heating; U.S. Market for Hydronic Heating and Burners; U.S. Water Heating Market; U.S. Unitary 

and Close Control Air Conditioning.

• California Air Resources Board (CARB). (2009). Inventory of Direct and Indirect GHG Emissions 

from Stationary Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Sources, with Special Emphasis on Retail Food 

Refrigeration and Unitary Air Conditioning

• CCMS. (n.d.). U.S. DOE Compliance Certification Database. Retrieved June 2013, September and 

November 2017 from: http://www.regulations.doe.gov/certification-data/

• CEC. (n.d.). California Energy Commission Appliance Efficiency Database. Retrieved 2004, 

September 2010, and June 2013 from: 

http://www.appliances.energy.ca.gov/AdvancedSearch.aspx

• CEE. (2009). “Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets Program Guide.” Consortium for 

Energy Efficiency. April 2009.

• CFR. (n.d.). National energy conservation standards authorized under the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA) and codified in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR).

• DEER. (2008, June). Database for Energy Efficiency Resources. Retrieved June 2013, from 

California Energy Commission: www.energy.ca.gov/deer

• DOE. (2012, June). Energy Saver: Geothermal Heat Pumps. Retrieved June 2013, from 

ENERGY.GOV: http://energy.gov/energysaver/articles/geothermal-heat-pumps

References
Review Draft

B-5

• DOE. (n.d.). Estimating the Cost and Energy Efficiency of a Solar Water Heater. Retrieved 

December 2017 from https://energy.gov/energysaver/estimating-cost-and-energy-efficiencysolar-water-heater

• DOE. (n.d.). Solar Water Heaters. Retrieved December 2017 from 

https://energy.gov/energysaver/solar-water-heaters 

• Distributors. (n.d.). Navigant online research and discussions with distributors (e.g., 

Grainger, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Sears, and others).

• EERE. (2001). Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Central Air Conditioners and 

Heat Pumps Energy Conservation Standards; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2001). Energy Efficiency Program for Commercial and Industrial Equipment; Efficiency 

Standards for Commercial Heating, Air Conditioning and Water Heating Equipment; Final rule.

• EERE. (2004). Joint Stakeholders Comments on Standards for Commercial Package Air Conditioners 

and Heat Pumps.

• EERE. (2006). Appliance Standards Framework, Rulemaking Framework for Residential Water 

Heaters, Direct Heating Equipment and Pool Heaters.

• EERE. (2006). Buildings Energy Data Book.

• EERE. (2007). Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Energy Conservation 

Standards for Residential Furnaces and Boilers; Final Rule.

References
Review Draft

B-6

• EERE. (2009). Commercial Heating, Air Conditioning and Water Heating Equipment (i.e. ASHRAE 

Equipment).

• EERE. (2009). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Certain Consumer 

Products (Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Microwave Ovens, and Electric and Gas Kitchen Ranges and 

Ovens) and for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment (Commercial Clothes Washers); Final 

Rule.

• EERE. (2009). Ground-Source Heat Pumps: Overview of Market Status, Barriers to Adoption, and 

Options for Overcoming Barriers.

• EERE. (2009). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Certain Consumer 

Products and for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2009). Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy 

Conservation Standards and Test Procedures for Commercial Heating, Air-Conditioning, and WaterHeating Equipment; Proposed Rule.

• EERE. (2010). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Residential Central Air 

Conditioners and Heat Pumps.

• EERE. (2010). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water 

Heaters, Direct Heating Equipment, and Pool Heaters; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2011). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential 

Clothes Dryers and Room Air Conditioners; Direct Final Rule.

References
Review Draft

B-7

• EERE. (2011). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential 

Furnaces and Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps; Direct Final Rule.

• EERE. (2011). Energy Conservation Program: Standards for Residential Refrigerators, RefrigeratorFreezers, and Freezers; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2011). Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Commercial And 

Industrial Equipment: Efficiency Standards for Commercial Heating, Air-Conditioning, and WaterHeating Equipment.

• EERE. (2012). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential 

Clothes Washers; Direct Final Rule.

• EERE. (2012). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential 

Dishwashers; Direct Final Rule.

• EERE. (2015). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer 

Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment. 

• EERE. (2015). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Small, Large, 

and Very Large Commercial Package Air Conditioners.

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy 

Conservation Standards for Small, Large, and Very Large Air-Cooled Commercial Package Air 

Conditioning and Heating Equipment and Commercial Warm Air Furnaces; Direct final rule and 

Technical Support Document.

References
Review Draft

B-8

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Portable Air 

Conditioners.

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Boilers

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program: Test Procedures for Portable Air Conditioners; Final 

Rule.

• EERE. (2016). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer 

Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Packaged Boilers

• EERE. (2016). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer 

Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Portable Air Conditioners.

• EERE. (2016). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Residential 

Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps.

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products and Certain Commercial and 

Industrial Equipment: Test Procedures for Consumer and Commercial Water Heaters; Final rule

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products; 

Supplemental Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy 

Conservation Standards for Commercial Water Heating Equipment: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.

References
Review Draft

• EERE. (2016). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for 

Consumer Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Residential Dishwashers.

• ENERGY STAR Savings Calculator (n.d.). “Savings Calculator for ENERGY STAR 

Qualified Commercial Kitchen Equipment.” U.S. EPA and DOE. Retrieved June 2013 

from http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=bulk_purchasing.bus_purchasing

• ENERGY STAR. (n.d.). Retrieved June 2013 and September 2017, from ENERGY STAR 

Products: http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=products.pr_find_es_products

• EPA. (2017, August) USEPA Certified Wood Heater List August 2017. 

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-08/usepa-certified-wood-heaterlist.xlsx

• FacilitiesNet. (2009). Properly Diagnosing Chiller Life Cycles. Retrieved September 2017 

from: http://www.facilitiesnet.com/hvac/article/Properly-Diagnosing-Chiller-LifeCycles--10645

• FEMP. (2012). “Federal Energy Management Program: Covered Product Category: Hot 

Food Holding Cabinets.” Retrieved June 2013 from: 

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/technologies/printable_versions/eep_hot_food.html

B-9

References
Review Draft

B-10

• FEMP. (2016, August). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Air-Cooled Chillers. Retrieved September 

2017, from FEMP Technologies: 

https://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/technologies/eep_ac_chillers.html

• FEMP. (2016, August). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Water-Cooled Electric Chillers. Retrieved 

September 2017, from FEMP Technologies: https://energy.gov/eere/femp/purchasing-energyefficient-water-cooled-electric-chillers

• FEMP. (2016, August). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Hot Food Holding Cabinets. Retrieved 

December 2017, from FEMP Technologies: https://energy.gov/eere/femp/purchasing-energyefficient-hot-food-holding-cabinets

• FSTC. (2002). Food Service Technology Center. Commercial Cooking Appliance Technology 

Assessment. Fisher Nickel, Inc.

• FSTC. (2013). Personal communication with Yung Lin of the Food Service Technology 

Center. June 21, 2013.

• FSTC. (n.d.). Appliance Reports, Rangetop Performance Reports. Retrieved December 2017, from: 

https://fishnick.com/publications/appliancereports/rangetops/

• FSTC. (n.d.). Appliance Reports, Griddle Performance Reports. Retrieved December 2017, from: 

https://fishnick.com/publications/appliancereports/griddles/

• GeoExchange. GeoExchange Heating and Cooling Systems: Fascinating Facts.

• GHPC. (n.d.). Geothermal Heat Pump Consortium. Retrieved 2007 from www.geoexchange.org

References
Review Draft

• IGSPHA. (n.d.). International Ground Source Heat Pump Association. Retrieved 2007 from 

www.igshpa.okstate.edu

• International Ground Source Heat Pump Association (IGSHPA) Conference 

Proceedings. (2012, October). Measuring the Costs & Benefits of Nationwide Geothermal 

Heat Pump (GHP) Deployment – A Progress Report. Retrieved June 2013, from IGSHPA: 

http://www.igshpa.okstate.edu/membership/members_only/proceedings/2012/10-3-

2012-0130-Session-C-Measuring-the-Costs-&-Benefits-of-Nationwide-Geothermal-HeatPump-(GHP)-Deployment-A-Progress-Report.pdf

• LBNL. (2003). Commercial Unitary Air Conditioning and Heat Pumps - Life Cycle Cost 

Analysis: Inputs and Results. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

• Manufacturers. (n.d.). Navigant discussions with product manufacturers.

• Max Neubauer, A. d. (2009). Ka-BOOM! The Power of Appliance Standards. ACEEE, ASAP.

• Navien America Inc. (n.d.). Navien Condensing 98%. Retrieved September 2010 from 

http://www.navienamerica.com/PDS/ftp/NavienCondensingTankless/DownLoad_Broc

hure_Manual/NavienCodensing98_Brochure.pdf

• Navigant Consulting, Inc. (n.d.). In-House Expertise.

• Product Literature. (n.d.). Literature from manufacturers and experts on specific 

products. 

B-11

References
Review Draft

• Progress Energy. (n.d.). Energy Savers: Chiller Optimization and Energy-Efficient Chillers. 

Retrieved September 2017 from: https://www.progressenergy.com/assets/www/docs/business/chiller-fact-sheet-052005.pdf

• Propane Education and Research Council (PERC). (2007). Assessment of Propane Fired 

Gas Air Conditioning, Heat Pumping and Dehumidification Technologies, Products, Markets 

and Economics

• RS Means Mechanical Cost Data. (2007). Means Construction Information Network.

• RS Means Mechanical Cost Data. (2010). Means Construction Information Network.

• RS Means Mechanical Cost Data. (2011). Means Construction Information Network.

• RS Means Mechanical Cost Data. (2013). Means Construction Information Network.

• RS Means Online Mechanical Cost Data. (2017). Means Construction Information 

Network.

• Solar Rating and Certification Corporation (SRCC). (n.d.) OG-100 System 

Certifications listing. Retrieved December 2017 from https://secure.solarrating.org/Certification/Ratings/RatingsSummaryPage.aspx?type=2

• Technology Cost and Performance File for Commercial Model for AEO2010. (2009). 

(E. Boedecker, Compiler)

B-12

References
January 2023

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies 3

APPENDIX B
FINAL

EIA - Technology Forecast Updates –

Residential and Commercial Building 

Technologies – Advanced Case

Presented to:

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Prepared by: 

Navigant Consulting, Inc.

1200 19 St. NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

April 2018
Review Draft

DISCLAIMER

This presentation was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States 

Government. Neither the United States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their 

employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, 

express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or 

usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use 

would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, 

process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily 

constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government 

or any agency, contractor or subcontractor thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed 

herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency 

thereof. 

April 2018

1
Review Draft

Objective 4

Methodology 5

Advanced Case Assumptions 6

Definitions 7

Market Transformation 8

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (North) 9

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (Rest of Country) 10

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces 13

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers 16

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers 19

Residential Electric Furnaces 22

Residential Electric Resistance Heaters 24

Residential Central Air Conditioners (North) 26

Residential Central Air Conditioners (South) 27

Residential Air Source Heat Pumps 30

Residential Ground Source Heat Pumps 34

Residential Room Air Conditioners 36

Residential Portable Air Conditioners 39

Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps 41

Residential Cordwood Stoves 43

Residential Pellet Wood Stoves 47

Residential Gas-Fired Water Heater 52

Residential Oil-Fired Water Heater 55

Residential Electric Resistance Water Heater 57

Residential Electric Heat Pump Water Heater 59

Residential Solar Water Heater 62

Residential Instantaneous Water Heater 64

Residential Refrigerator/Freezer (Top-Mount) 66

Residential Refrigerator/Freezer (Side-Mount) 67

Residential Refrigerator/Freezer (Bottom-Mount) 68

Residential Freezers (Chest) 72

Residential Freezers (Upright) 73

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops and Stoves 76

Residential Natural Gas Ovens 77

Residential Clothes Dryers (Electric) 80

Residential Clothes Dryers (Gas) 81

Residential Clothes Washers (Front-Loading) 84

Residential Clothes Washers (Top-Loading) 85

Residential Dishwashers 88

Page Page

Table of Contents
Review Draft

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces 91

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces 93

Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters 95

Commercial Electric Boilers 97

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers 99

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers 101

Commercial Centrifugal Chillers 103

Commercial Reciprocating Chillers 105

Commercial Screw Chillers 107

Commercial Scroll Chillers 109

Commercial Gas Fired Chillers 111

Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners 113

Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Driven Rooftop Air 

Conditioners 115

Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps 117

Commercial Ground Source Heat Pumps 119

Commercial Gas-Fired Water Heater 121

Commercial Electric Resistance Water Heater 124

Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater 127

Commercial Oil-Fired Water Heater 129

Commercial Electric Booster Water Heater 131

Commercial Gas-Fired Booster Water Heater 132

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heater134

Commercial Solar Water Heater 136

Commercial Gas Range with Griddle and Oven 138

Commercial Electric Range with Griddle and Oven139

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinet 141

Data Sources A-1

References B-1

Page

Table of Contents

Page
Review Draft

4

The objective of this study is to develop baseline and projected 

performance/cost characteristics for residential and commercial 

end-use equipment.

• Installed base in 2012 (for commercial products) or 2009 and 2015 (for residential 

products) and current market (2017)

— Review of literature, standards, installed base, contractor, and manufacturer 

information.

— Provide a relative comparison and characterization of the cost/efficiency of a 

generic product.

• Forecast of technology improvements that are projected to be available through 2050

— Review of trends in standards, product enhancements, and Research and 

Development (R&D).

— Projected impact of product improvements and enhancement to technology.

Objective

The performance/cost characterization of end-use equipment developed in this 

study will assist EIA in projecting national primary energy consumption.
Review Draft

5

Input from industry, including government, R&D organizations, and 

manufacturers, was used to project product enhancements concerning 

equipment performance and cost attributes.

• Technology forecasting involves many uncertainties.

• Technology developments impact performance and cost forecasts.

• Varied sources ensure a balanced view of technology progress and the probable timing 

of commercial availability.

• Only currently published efficiency standards and regulations are considered when 

predicting technology developments, unpublished future regulatory action is not 

predicted.

• All costs are shown in 2017 dollars (2017$).

• Ranges, when given, represent the span of typical values for a given parameter (e.g.. 

installed cost for equipment meeting the federal standard) not the highest and lowest 

available on the market. 

Methodology
Review Draft

6

The Advanced Case and Reference Case both assume current level of effort 

for standards. However, the Advanced Case assumes an increase in market 

incentive and federal R&D. The general approach for the Advanced Case is 

outlined below. 

The Advanced Case takes into account future changes to product groups such as:

• Product or component changes that are fully developed, but have not yet been 

commercialized. 

• Expected incremental improvements in existing technologies due to increased R&D

• Increased adoption of existing higher efficiency technology options due to increased 

market incentives

The Advanced Case did not include future changes to product groups that are due to:

• Prototype technology changes or products that are in preliminary research that may 

have performance improvements, but have only been demonstrated in theoretical 

calculations.

Advanced Case Assumptions
Review Draft

7

The following tables represent the current and projected efficiencies for residential and 

commercial building equipment ranging from the installed base in 2012 for commercial 

products (or 2009 and 2015 for residential products) to the highest efficiency equipment 

that is expected to be commercially available by 2050, assuming incremental adoption. 

Below are definitions for the terms used in characterizing the status of each technology.

• 2009/2012/2015 Installed Base: Efficiency values are for those units installed and “in use” 

in that year. Cost values are for the typical new unit sold in that year.

• 2017 Current Standard: the minimum efficiency required by current standards.

• Typical: the average, or “typical” product being sold in the particular timeframe. This 

may represent either the shipments-weighted average product performance or the most 

common product on the market.

• ENERGY STAR: the minimum efficiency required to meet the ENERGY STAR criteria, 

where applicable.

• Mid-Level: middle tier high-efficiency product available in the particular timeframe.

• High: the product with the highest efficiency available in the particular timeframe.

Definitions
Review Draft

8

Market Transformation

The market for the reviewed products has changed since the analysis 

performed in 2013 and is reflected in the efficiency and cost 

characteristics.

• In some categories the typical new product purchased today is significantly more efficient than the 

average product in the installed base in 2012 (comm.) or 2015 (res.):

— Residential sector: central air conditioners and heat pumps, water heaters

— Commercial sector: gas-fired and oil-fired boilers, oil-fired storage water heaters

• More stringent Federal standards have taken effect for the following products:

— Residential furnaces in 2013 and 2015

— Residential room air conditioners in 2014

— Residential water heaters in 2015

— Residential central air conditioners, air-source heat pumps in 2015

— Residential and commercial water-source heat pumps in 2015

— Commercial oil-fired storage water heaters in 2015

• ENERGY STAR continues to raise the bar with revised criteria for:

— Residential furnaces in 2013

— Residential room air conditioners, central air conditioners, and central heat pumps in 2015

— Residential dishwashers in 2016

— Residential and commercial boilers in 2014 and 2016, respectively

— Residential and commercial water heaters in 2017 and 2013, respectively
Review Draft

9

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (North)

* Electric Consumption accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the furnace fan, draft inducer, and the ignitor. In some high 

efficiency products, this component also includes auxiliary equipment, such as condensate pumps and heat tape. 

** Average life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). In the EERE 2015 TSD, a sensitivity analysis offers 16 to 27 

years as the low and high range of the product lifetime for gas-fired furnaces.

Return to Table of Contents

Typical efficiency level and product costs increase to ENERGY STAR levels. 

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

(North)

High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

AFUE (%) 80 80 80 92 95 99 92 99 95 99 95 99 95 99

Electric Consumption 

(kWh/yr)* 548 522 470 470 384 418 322 334 307 334 307 334 307 334

Average Life (yrs)**

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 840 860 890 1,190 1,320 1,620 1,340 1,620 1,480 1,620 1,480 1,620 1,480 1,620

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 2,000 2,020 2,050 2,610 2,740 3,040 2,760 3,040 2,890 3,040 2,890 3,040 2,890 3,040

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Review Draft

10

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (Rest of Country)

* Electric Consumption accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the furnace fan, draft inducer, and the ignitor. In some high 

efficiency products, this component also includes auxiliary equipment, such as condensate pumps and heat tape.

** Average life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). In the EERE 2015 TSD, a sensitivity analysis offers 16 to 27 

years as the low and high range of the product lifetime for gas-fired furnaces.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

(South)

High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

AFUE (%) 80 80 80 80 90 99 80 99 80 99 80 99 80 99

Electric Consumption 

(kWh/yr)* 548 522 470 470 408 418 329 334 329 334 329 334 329 334

Average Life (yrs)** 

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 840 860 890 890 1,150 1,620 1,080 1,620 1,080 1,620 1,080 1,620 1,080 1,620

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 2,000 2,020 2,050 2,050 2,560 3,040 2,240 3,040 2,240 3,040 2,240 3,040 2,240 3,040

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

Same as Reference Case
Review Draft

• Current Federal standards for non-weatherized gas furnaces:

— AFUE ≥ 80%

• ENERGY STAR criteria for gas furnaces:

— South: AFUE ≥ 90%

— North: AFUE ≥ 95%

— Furnaces must be equipped with electronically commutated fan motor and have less than or equal to 2.0% air 

leakage

• Most efficient unit currently available: 98.7% AFUE. The current market is nearly evenly split between noncondensing units (AFUE≤82%) and condensing units (AFUE≥90%).

• The highest efficiency furnaces (~99% AFUE) employ electronically commutated motors (ECMs) and can fully 

modulate rather than cycling on and off. Because they modulate, there is an increase in total fan-on time. Because the 

fan operates for more total hours and consumes more energy, the annual electricity consumption is higher for these 

products

• Non-condensing AFUE levels for natural gas top out at around 82%; above this level, the potential for exhaust gas 

condensation increases. This condensate is corrosive and requires cost restrictive corrosion resistant venting.

• High-efficiency condensing furnaces typically have high-grade stainless steel (AL 29-4C) heat exchangers. 

• Many are available as direct vent and sealed combustion systems, which do not use room air for combustion, but 

instead draws combustion air directly from outdoors. 

• Depending on the location of the home, piping materials in use, and other considerations, condensing furnaces may 

need an acid neutralizer and/or lift pump for the condensate.

• Furnaces may contain permanent split capacitor (PSC) or brushless permanent magnet (BPM) fan motors. The 2015 

Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furnace Fans Final Rule requires that all furnaces use BPM fans. The 

type of motor effects the electrical consumption of the furnace as well as the SEER/EER of the associated air 

conditioner.

• Advanced Case: Increased incentives move typical efficiency products to ENERGY STAR levels by 2030. The current price 

difference between 92% AFUE and 95% AFUE products is not large. It is expected that with more market incentives, 

manufacturers will produce more products that can be ENERGY STAR certified at the 95% level.

11

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

12

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces

Annual shipments peaked at 3.5 million units in 2005 then declined 

each year until 2009 and leveled off at about 2.25 million units. Since 

2012, shipments have increased steadily.

Source: AHRI (http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Furnaces-Historical-Data.aspx) 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

13

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105

AFUE (%) 80 83 83 83 85 97 83 97 85 97 85 97 85 97

Electric Consumption 

(kWh/yr)* 490 477 477 477 466 410 477 410 466 410 466 410 466 410

Average Life (yrs)**

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

2,150 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,250 2,700 2,200 2,700 2,250 2,700 2,250 2,700 2,250 2,700

2,350 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,950 3,450 2,900 3,450 2,950 3,450 2,950 3,450 2,950 3,450

Total Installed Cost ($)

2,700 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,950 4,350 2,750 4,350 2,950 4,350 2,950 4,350 2,950 4,350

3,400 5,500 5,500 5,500 5,750 8,550 5,500 8,550 5,750 8,550 5,750 8,550 5,750 8,550

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 70 70 70 70 70 200 70 200 70 200 70 200 70 200

Return to Table of Contents

Typical efficiency level and product costs increase to ENERGY STAR levels.

* Electric Consumption accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the furnace fan, draft inducer, and the ignitor. In some high 

efficiency products, this component also includes auxiliary equipment, such as condensate pumps and heat tape.

**Average Life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). The EERE 2015 TSD offers a Weibull distribution with an 

average value of 26.5 years and a 25%-75% confidence interval range of 19.7 to 33.1 years.
Review Draft

• Current Federal standards:

— AFUE ≥ 83%

— ≤ 11 watts of electrical power when in standby and off modes (non-weatherized models only)

• ENERGY STAR criteria: AFUE ≥ 85%

• Since the latent heat content of oil is lower than that for either propane or natural gas, oil-fired 

appliances can typically operate at a higher AFUE rating than comparable gas-fired appliances 

before condensation issues arise.

• Most efficient available: 96.7% AFUE – condensing units with tiny market share (<1%), due to 

market acceptance issues. 

• Condensate from condensing oil furnaces is typically even more corrosive than that of gas-fired 

systems due to the higher sulfur content in fuel oil. Hence, condensing oil furnaces also likely 

require the use of an acid neutralizer. By 2019, ultra-low sulfur heating oil will be required in most 

northeastern states; this will reduce corrosion effects.

• Oil-fired furnaces, like gas-fired furnaces, achieve condensing conditions through the use of a 

secondary heat exchanger. Typically, these secondary heat exchangers use a high-grade stainless 

steel (AL 29-4C).

• Sooting is an issue for all oil-fired appliances, but secondary heat exchangers, with their narrow 

passages, are even more prone to be plugged by soot. Because of this, condensing oil furnaces 

typically require frequent cleaning and maintenance.

• Advanced Case: Increased incentives move typical efficiency products to ENERGY STAR levels by 

2030. The current typical efficiency product is at 83% AFUE, while ENERGY STAR is at 85%, with 

only a small difference in costs. It is expected that with more market incentives, manufacturers will 

produce more products that can be ENERGY STAR certified at the 85% level.

14

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

15

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces

Annual shipments declined rapidly after 2004, likely due at least in 

part to an increase in fuel oil prices, which more than tripled from 

2002 to 2008. Since 2012 shipments have largely levelled off.

Source: AHRI (http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Furnaces-Historical-Data.aspx) 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

16

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers

*Average Life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). In the EERE 2015 TSD, an average of 26.5 years is calculated 

for gas-fired hot water boilers, with a low and high range from 20 to 30 years respectively.

** In 2021, new energy conservation standards for Residential Boilers will take effect. These projections reflect the 2021 minimum AFUE requirement for 

residential oil-fired boilers, 84%. However, by 2020, the majority of the gas-fired boiler market is expected to be condensing, with a minimum efficiency of 

90% AFUE.

Note: Water boilers considered. Steam boilers also exist, but make up only about 15% of the market.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 105 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

AFUE (%) 80 82 82 82 90 97 90 97 94 97 94 97 94 97

Average Life (yrs)*

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost 

($)

2,050 1,950 1,950 1,950 2,750 3,750 2,750 3,750 2,750 3,750 2,750 3,750 2,750 3,750

2,650 2,550 2,550 2,550 3,250 4,300 3,250 4,300 3,250 4,300 3,250 4,300 3,250 4,300

Total Installed Cost ($)

4,100 4,600 4,600 4,600 5,750 6,800 5,750 6,800 5,750 6,800 5,750 6,800 5,750 6,800

4,700 9,750 9,750 9,750 10,000 11,050 10,000 11,050 10,000 11,050 10,000 11,050 10,000 11,050

Annual Maintenance 

Cost ($) 50 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Federal standard for gas-fired hot-water boilers (more common than steam):

— AFUE ≥ 82% 

— Design requirements that took effect on September 1, 2012 prohibit a constant burning pilot and require 

an automatic means for adjusting water temperature

— AFUE ≥ 84% required on January 21, 2021

• ENERGY STAR criteria: AFUE ≥ 90%

• Most efficient available: 96.8% AFUE

• Have lost market share to furnaces and heat pumps over the past 30 years

• U.S. gas hot water boiler sales are split roughly 50/50 between condensing and non-condensing. Condensing 

boilers typically have heat exchangers made of stainless steel and non-condensing boiler typically have heat 

exchangers made of case iron.

• Typically, condensing boilers are low-mass in construction with modulating burners, variable-speed inducer 

fan systems, sealed powered direct-vent combustion, multiple sensor technologies, and electronic ignition 

and control.

• Due to incentives and market pressure, the U.S. boiler industry has been shifting towards also providing 

condensing boilers. Most of these boilers are private-labeled products sourced from Europe, where the 

hydronic market is much bigger and condensing appliances are much more common and/or required by 

law.

• Most value-added components for condensing boilers are sourced abroad, even when the condensing boiler 

is assembled in North America (e.g., heat exchanger, gas valve, burner, sensors, and/or controls).

• Advanced Case: Costs on the market for current 94% AFUE units are slightly higher than 90% AFUE 

(ENERGY STAR) units. With increased market incentives and R&D, the costs of 94% units are expected to 

decline to current costs for 90% units. The decreased costs for these units will help drive overall adoption of 

condensing units, thereby raising the typical efficiency, without increasing cost. 

17

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

18

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents

Annual shipments had a significant decrease following the 2009 

financial crisis and a steady recovery in the years since.

Source: National Impact Analysis Spreadsheet from the 2015 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Boilers Final Rule. 

(https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EERE-2012-BT-STD-0047-0072)
Review Draft

19

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers

*ENERGY STAR levels were not examined in the EERE 2015 rulemaking, therefore ENERGY STAR retail costs were extrapolated from the non-condensing 

levels. All other costs are the same for non-condensing models.

**2017 High - EERE 2015 has analysis for 91% AFUE, maximum AFUE identified in the AHRI and CCMS databases at time of publication is 90%. There is 

only one condensing level within the EERE analysis so extrapolation to 90% cannot be done, therefore, cost values are those presented in EERE 2015 for 

91% AFUE.

*** Average Life was previously reported as a range sourced from Appliance Magazine (2012). In the EERE 2015 TSD, an average of 24.8 years is calculated 

for oil-fired hot water boilers, with a low and high range from 18 to 28 years respectively.

  In 2021, new energy conservation standards for Residential Boilers will take effect. These projections reflect the 2021 minimum AFUE requirement for 

residential oil-fired boilers, 86%.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** ** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR* High** Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140

AFUE (%) 80 84 84 84 87 90 84 90 87 90 87 90 87 90

Average Life (yrs)***

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28

Retail Equipment Cost 

($)

2,400 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,450 6,150 4,000 6,150 4,450 6,150 4,450 6,150 4,450 6,150

3,050 4,300 4,300 4,300 4,800 6,700 4,300 6,700 4,800 6,700 4,800 6,700 4,800 6,700

Total Installed Cost ($)

4,350 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,900 9,400 6,600 9,400 6,900 9,400 6,900 9,400 6,900 9,400

5,000 11,650 11,650 11,650 11,950 13,500 11,650 13,500 11,950 13,500 11,950 13,500 11,950 13,500

Annual Maintenance 

Cost ($) 140 140 140 140 140 150 140 150 140 150 140 150 140 150

Return to Table of Contents

Typical efficiency level and product costs increase to ENERGY STAR levels.
Review Draft

• Federal standard for oil-fired hot-water boilers (more common than steam):

— AFUE ≥ 84% 

— Design requirements that took effect on September 1, 2012 require an automatic 

means for adjusting water temperature

— AFUE ≥ 86% required on January 21, 2021

• ENERGY STAR criteria: AFUE ≥ 87%

• Most efficient available: 90% AFUE

• Since the latent heat content of oil is lower than that for either propane or natural gas, 

oil-fired appliances can typically operate at a higher AFUE rating than comparable gasfired appliances before condensation issues arise.

• Oil boilers have heat exchangers made of cast iron or stainless steel. 

• Advanced Case: Increased incentives move typical efficiency products to ENERGY 

STAR levels by 2030. The current typical efficiency product is at 84% AFUE, while 

ENERGY STAR is at 87%, with only a small difference in costs. It is expected that with 

more market incentives, manufacturers will produce more products that can be 

ENERGY STAR certified at the 87% level.

20

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

21

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents

Annual shipments declined rapidly after 2004, likely due at least in 

part to an increase in fuel oil prices, which more than tripled from 

2002 to 2008. Since 2009 shipments have largely levelled off.

Source: National Impact Analysis Spreadsheet from the 2015 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Boilers Final Rule. 

(https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EERE-2012-BT-STD-0047-0072)
Review Draft

22

Residential Electric Resistance Furnaces

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 68 68 68 68 68 68 68

AFUE (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (yrs) 

15 15 15 15 15 15 15

30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 

600 600 600 600 600 600 600

700 700 700 700 700 700 700

Total Installed Cost ($) 

1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1000

1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1200

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Federal standards for electric furnaces:

— AFUE ≥ 78%

— Standby and off mode power consumption ≤ 10 watts

• According to RECS 2015 data, electric central warm-air furnaces are the main source of 

space heating in approximately 17.9 million US homes or about 15%. The majority of 

these installations are part of a heat pumps system, where the electric resistance is used 

as back-up heating.

• Electric furnaces range in capacity from 10 to 25 kW (34 to 85 kBtu/hr), with 20 kW (68 

kBtu/hr) being the typical for units on the market.

• Electric resistance furnaces are considered near 100% efficient because there is no flue 

heat loss and any jacket losses are contained within the home. 

— ASHRAE Standard 103, the test method for furnaces incorporated by reference into 

the federal test procedure, specifies that for electric furnaces AFUE = 100 – 1.7 x 

jacket losses. Jacket losses can be determined either through testing or assumed to 

be 1%. Thus, the minimum AFUE of electric furnaces is 98.3%.

23

Residential Electric Resistance Furnaces Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

24

Residential Electric Resistance Unit Heaters

* Assumes similar lifetime to Electric Furnaces on the basis that both products have heating elements that burn out and lead to product failure. 

** Annual Maintenance Cost is negligible

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Efficiency (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Average Life (yrs)*

15 15 15 15 15 15 15

30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 

75 75 75 75 75 75 75

200 200 200 200 200 200 200

Total Installed Cost ($) 

125 125 125 125 125 125 125

275 275 275 275 275 275 275

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) ** - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Electric resistance unit heaters include electric wall and baseboard heaters. Plug-in 

space heaters are not included.

• There are currently no federal efficiency requirements for electric resistance unit 

heaters.

• According to RECS 2015 data, electric resistance unit heaters are the main source of 

space heating in approximately 8.9 million US homes or about 8%. 

• Electric heaters range in capacity from 500 to 2,500 watts (1.7 to 8.5 kBtu/hr), with 1,000 

watts (3.5 kBtu/hr) being the most typical for units on the market.

• Electric resistance heaters are considered near 100% efficient because there is no heat 

loss through ducts or combustion. An efficiency of 98% is selected here to account for IR 

losses and fan inefficiency.

25

Residential Electric Resistance Unit Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

26

Residential Central Air Conditioners

North (Not Hot-Dry or Hot-Humid)

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

SEER* 11.4 12.5 13.0 13.9 15.0 16.5 13.9 16.5 15.0 16.5 15.5 16.5 15.5 16.5

Average Life (yrs)

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 1,750 2,050 2,200 2,250 2,650 3,200 2,250 3,200 2,350 3,200 2,350 3,200 2,350 3,200

Total Installed Cost ($) 2,150 3,400 3,550 3,650 4,000 4,650 3,650 4,650 3,700 4,650 3,700 4,650 3,700 4,650

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.

* Values shown are for split-system units in the 36 kBtu/h (3-ton) size class. Costs and efficiency levels are for ducted "coil-only" systems, meaning they 

do not include a blower. Note blower-coil systems were analyzed for Residential Air Source HP, which is why the "High" SEER levels are higher for HPs 

than for ACs.

** In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps will take effect. The new standards specify a 

different metric for Central ACs (SEER2). These projections reflect the equivalent levels for the 2023 standard under the current metric, 14 SEER.
Review Draft

27

Residential Central Air Conditioners

South (Hot-Dry and Hot-Humid)

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

SEER* 11.4 13.0 14.0 14.4 15.0 16.5 14.4 16.5 15.5 16.5 16.0 16.5 16.0 16.5

Average Life (yrs)

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 1,750 2,200 2,250 2,350 2,650 3,200 2,350 3,200 2,700 3,200 2,700 3,200 2,700 3,200

Total Installed Cost ($) 2,150 3,600 3,650 3,700 4,000 4,650 3,700 4,650 4,100 4,650 4,100 4,650 4,100 4,650

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.

* Values shown are for split-system units in the 36 kBtu/h (3-ton) size class. Costs and efficiency levels are for ducted "coil-only" systems, meaning they 

do not include a blower. Note blower-coil systems were analyzed for Residential Air Source HP, which is why the "High" SEER levels are higher for HPs 

than for ACs.

** In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps will take effect. The new standards specify a 

different metric for Central ACs (SEER2). These projections reflect the equivalent levels for the 2023 standard under the current metric, 14 SEER.
Review Draft

28

Residential Central Air Conditioners

Residential Central Air 

Conditioner Product Class

Current Standards Current ENERGY STAR 

Criteria

Min. SEER 

in North

Min. SEER 

in South

Max. Off 

Mode 

Power (W)

Min. SEER Min. EER

Split-System AC 13 14 30 15 12.5

Single-Package AC 14 14 30 15 12

Small-Duct, High-Velocity 12 12 30 – –

Space-Constrained 12 12 30 – –

• Current standards, which took effect in 2015, represent an improvement in efficiency in all regions from 

13 SEER for single-package units.

• Current standards in the South and Southwest represent an improvement in efficiency from 13 SEER for 

split systems.

• Systems installed in the Southwest (CA, AZ, NM, and NV) also have to meet an energy efficiency ratio 

(EER) standard that varies by cooling capacity and system configuration.

• Current standards took effect in 2015, amended standards for all product classes will take effect in 2023.

• Small-Duct, High-Velocity and Space-Constrained units both have very small market shares

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more cost-effective 

variable speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Annual shipments spiked at 6.5 million units in 2005 at the peak of 

the housing boom and just before more stringent Federal standards 

took effect in 2006. Annual shipments have been steadily increasing 

since 2010 but have not yet reached the previous high.

29

Residential Central Air Conditioners

Source: AHRI (available at http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Central-AirConditioners-and-Air-Source-Heat-Pumps.aspx)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

30

Residential Air Source Heat Pumps

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

SEER (Cooling)* 12.0 13.1 14.0 15.3 15.0 19.0 15.3 19.0 16.0 19.0 16.5 19.0 16.5 19.0

HSPF (Heating)* 7.4 7.9 8.2 8.6 8.5 9.0 8.6 9.0 8.8 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0

Average Life (yrs)

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Retail Equipment Cost ($)* 2,550 2,800 3,350 3,600 3,500 4,550 3,600 4,550 3,700 4,550 3,700 4,550 3,700 4,550

Total Installed Cost ($)* 3,000 3,250 4,850 5,100 4,950 6,100 5,100 6,100 5,150 6,100 5,150 6,100 5,150 6,100

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.

* Values shown are for split-system units in the 36 kBtu/h (3-ton) size class which represent the largest market share based on 2016 Energy Conservation 

Standards for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps, Government Regulatory Impact Model. Costs and efficiency levels are for ducted systems with 

integral indoor blowers. Note coil-only systems were analyzed for Residential Central AC North and South, which is why the "High" SEER levels are 

higher for HPs than for ACs.

**In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps will take effect. The new standards specify 

different metrics (SEER2 and HSPF2). These projections reflect the equivalent levels for the 2023 standard under the current metrics, 15 SEER and 8.8 

HSPF.
Review Draft

• High efficiency cooling does not necessarily correlate with high efficiency heating. The range of 

SEER–HSPF combinations is very broad.

• Heat pumps are generally sized to meet the cooling load of the house. When the heating load 

exceeds heat pump heating capacity, electric resistance heat is used to supplement.

• Variable-speed compressors improve efficiency of heat pumps by reducing cyclic losses and by 

operating above their nominal speed, boosting heating capacity and reducing the need for 

supplementary electric resistance heat.

• Current standards took effect in 2015, amended standards for all product classes will take effect in 

2023.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more costeffective variable speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially 

increasing costs.

31

Residential Air Source Heat Pumps

Residential Heat 

Pump Product Class

Current Standards Current ENERGY STAR Criteria

Min. 

SEER

Min. 

HSPF

Max. Off 

Mode 

Power (W)

Min. 

SEER Min. EER Min. 

HSPF

Split-System 14 8.2 33 15 12.5 8.5

Single-Package 14 8 33 15 12 8.2

Small-Duct, HighVelocity 12 7.2 30 – – –

Space-Constrained 12 7.4 33 – – –

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

From 2000 to 2005 annual shipments increased nearly 60% to 2.1 

million units, then dropped and leveled off around 1.7 million units. 

In 2014 annual shipments surpassed the 2005 peak.

32

Residential Air Source Heat Pumps

Source: AHRI (available at http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Central-AirConditioners-and-Air-Source-Heat-Pumps.aspx)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

33

Residential Central Air Conditioners and Air Source Heat Pumps

• Principal energy efficiency drivers for central air conditioners and heat pumps :

— Heat exchanger (surface area, number of tube rows)

— Compressor (type and single-stage vs. two-stage vs. variable-speed operation)

— Fan motor choices (PSC vs. ECM fan motors on inside and outside)

— Control choices (i.e., piston, thermal, and electronic expansion valves)

• When the heat pump or air conditioner’s capacity exceeds the heating or cooling load, 

the unit starts and stops more frequently, causing wear and tear on the components and 

an overall loss of efficiency. Multi-stage and/or variable-speed compressors can help, as 

does sophisticated refrigerant management.

• Typical high-efficiency unit (≥16 SEER) has very large heat exchanger, ECM evaporator 

fan motor, and two-stage scroll compressor.

• Variable-speed compressor technology typically leads to a significant SEER boost, 

making possible high-SEER condensing units with smaller heat exchangers, and thus, 

smaller enclosures.

• Efficiency levels >21 SEER made possible through combining existing large heat 

exchangers with variable-speed compressors, ECM fan motors, and electronic 

expansion valves.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

34

Residential Ground Source Heat Pumps

* COP values listed are assessed at a "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, DOE sets 

standards at a "water loop" test condition. The AHRI directory lists COP ratings at both sets of test conditions and is used to convert between them where 

necessary. 

** EER values listed are assessed at a full-load "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, 

DOE sets standards at a full-load "water loop" test condition. Previous analysis relied on Energy Star ratings which are an average of the full-load and partload "ground loop" conditions. The AHRI directory lists EER ratings at all sets of test conditions and is used to convert between them where necessary.

Note: Residential and commercial GSHPs are very similar - the main difference in data presented is the different capacity (3-ton vs 4-ton) and slightly 

higher installation costs for commercial. DOE does not distinguish between residential and commercial units in its regulations.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

COP (Heating)* 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.6 4.5 3.7 4.5 4 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.5

EER (Cooling)** 12.3 13.3 14.1 17.3 17.1 22.4 17.5 22.4 18 22.4 18.5 22.4 18.5 22.4

Average Life (yrs)

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 6,200 3,950 4,100 4,650 4,600 5,550 4,650 5,550 4,650 5,550 4,650 5,550 4,650 5,550

Total Installed Cost ($)

18,100 11,950 12,100 12,650 12,650 13,550 12,650 13,550 12,650 13,550 12,650 13,550 12,650 13,550

20,650 18,950 19,100 19,650 19,650 20,550 19,650 20,550 19,650 20,550 19,650 20,550 19,650 20,550

Annual Maintenance 

Cost ($) 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• There are currently over 20 ground source heat pump manufacturers/OEMs in the US.

• Heating COP does not correlate with cooling EER (coefficient of determination, R2 = 0.59 for ENERGY 

STAR certified products). The highest efficiency GSHP is the 7 Series by WaterFurnace International, 

Inc. (41 EER & 5.3 COP). Note that these are equipment-level thermal ratings tested according to 

standardized lab conditions and do not necessarily represent system-level or "real-world" performance.

• The ENERGY STAR® criteria for water-to-air ground source heat pumps are:

• The most common ground source heat pump is a closed-loop system in which water or an anti-freeze 

solution is circulated through plastic pipes buried underground. Open loop systems that employ ground 

water or surface water (e.g., open well, pond, lake) are used in some parts of the country, but water 

supply and water quality issues impose limitations on such applications.

• Installation cost is for a closed loop system and includes necessary accessories. The ground loop heat 

exchanger represents a majority of the installation cost. Installed costs for these systems vary widely. 

• Variable speed electronically commutated motors (ECMs) improve performance on high end models.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more advanced 

compressors, fan motors) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs.

35

Residential Ground Source Heat Pumps

Type Heating 

COP

Cooling 

EER

Closed Loop 3.6 17.1

Open Loop 4.1 21.1

Direct Expansion 3.6 16

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

36

Residential Room Air Conditioners

* All values are for the most common product class, Product Class 3 (without reverse cycle, with louvered sides, and 8,000 to 13,999 Btu/h).

** Maintenance costs are negligible.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity 

(kBtu/hr)* 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5

CEER (Btu/Wh) 9.3 10.9 10.9 12.0 12.0 12.3 12.3 12.8 12.8 13.5 13.0 13.8 13.5 14.5

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

480 470 470 510 510 510 510 550 550 590 570 610 590 630

580 600 600 600 600 730 730 780 780 830 810 860 830 880

Total Installed Cost ($)

550 540 540 580 580 580 580 620 620 660 640 680 660 750

680 700 700 700 700 830 830 880 880 930 910 960 930 860

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)** - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Increased efficiency with corresponding cost increases.
Review Draft

• Focus on most common type: louvered sides (window air conditioners) without reverse cycle and 

having cooling capacity of 8,000–13,999 Btu/h (DOE Product Class 3).

• Federal standards for Product Class 3:

— CEER ≥ 10.9 (beginning June 1, 2014)

• Combined Energy Efficiency Ratio (CEER) incorporates energy use in cooling mode and standby and 

off modes.

• Of the 474 individual models in Product Class 3 listed in DOE’s compliance certification 

database1:

— 42% are at the standard level (≥ 10.9 CEER, < 12.0 CEER)

— 58% are at the ENERGY STAR level (≥ 12.0 CEER)

— Most efficient model is at 12.3 CEER

• ENERGY STAR criteria for Product Class 3

— CEER ≥ 12.0 (effective October 26, 2015)

• Efficiency improvements are attained by:

— Higher efficiency compressor and fan motors, and

— An increased heat transfer area in the evaporator and condenser through the use of larger heat 

exchangers, finer fin spacing, micro-channel heat exchangers, and similar design options.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more 

efficient motors and compressors, larger cross-section heat exchangers, adoption of variable 

speed technologies) are expected to increase efficiency with corresponding increases in cost.

37

Residential Room Air Conditioners Return to Table of Contents

1 Accessed December 2017. https://www.regulations.doe.gov/certification-data
Review Draft

Annual shipments dropped sharply in 2009, likely due to the 

recession and an unusually cool summer in the Northeast. Sales 

have largely leveled off in the years since, fluctuating between 6 

and 7.5 million.

38

Residential Room Air Conditioners

Source: Appliance Magazine.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

39

Residential Portable Air Conditioners

* All values are for the average capacity for single-duct and dual-duct portable ACs available on the market.

** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note: In December of 2016 EREE issued a final rule titled Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Portable Air

Conditioners. As of October 2017, this rule has not yet been published and therefore these standards are not reflected in the values shown above.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr)* 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6

CEER (Btu/Wh) 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.7 6.7 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 9.5 9.5 10.0

Average Life (yrs)

7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 720 690 670 800 800 825 825 850 850 875 875 900

Total Installed Cost ($) 720 690 670 800 800 825 825 850 850 875 875 900

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)** - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Increased efficiency with corresponding cost increases.
Review Draft

• A new test procedure for portable ACs was published June 1, 2016

• The test procedure addresses single-duct and dual-duct portable ACs, configurations typically 

used in residential applications. No procedures were established for other portable AC 

configurations (e.g., spot coolers).

• Spot coolers, a portable AC configuration with no condenser-side ducts and with adjustable 

evaporator exhaust ducts, are commonly used in commercial applications.

• A final rule, Energy Conservation Standards for Portable Air Conditioners, was issued in 

December 28, 2016 to address standards for single-duct and dual-duct portable ACs. It was 

never published, so there are no existing energy conservation standards for portable ACs.

• The final rule outlined an equation-based conservation standard (in CEER) for both singleduct and dual-duct portable ACs, based on the seasonally adjusted cooling capacity (SACC).

• For a typical portable AC in 2017 with a capacity of 6,600 Btu/h, the corresponding CEER is 

typically 4.3 Btu/Wh.

• Efficiency improvements are attained by:

— Higher efficiency compressor and fan motors, and

— An increased heat transfer area in the evaporator and condenser through the use of larger 

heat exchangers, finer fin spacing, micro-channel heat exchangers, and similar design 

options.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more 

efficient motors and compressors, larger cross-section heat exchangers, adoption of variable 

speed technologies) are expected to increase efficiency with corresponding increases in cost.

40

Residential Portable Air Conditioners Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

41

Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

Heating (COP) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Cooling (COP) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Annual Electric Use (kWh/yr)* 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12

18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000

12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200

Total Installed Cost ($) 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500

14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 170 170 170 170 170 170 170

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case

* Annual Electric Use accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the heat pump fan.
Review Draft

• Residential Gas Heat Pumps are not currently covered by NAECA. CEC Title 24, Part 6 

Section 112 does indicate cooling efficiency requirements for gas heat pumps.

• Gas heat pumps are much more popular in other parts of the world, such as Europe. 

Gas-fired cooling equipment currently comprises less than 1% of the residential air 

conditioning/heat pump market in the U.S. 

• Currently, Robur is the predominant manufacturer of residential-sized gas heat pumps 

with sales operations in the US. Robur units are 5-ton nominal cooling capacity, a size 

typically associated with larger homes. Since only one product is available, no mid-level 

or high efficiency categories are included. 

• The data represents air-source absorption heat pumps. Gas engine-driven vapor 

compression heat pumps are available in other parts of the world; York formerly offered 

the Triathlon gas engine-driven heat pump in the US. It is possible to couple either 

technology to the ground (ground source) rather than the atmosphere (air source).

• The absorption heat pump is a gas-fired, ammonia-water absorption cycle, combined 

with a high-efficiency low-pressure boiler integrated into one outdoor unit.

• The cooling efficiency of a gas-fired air source absorption heat pump is considerably 

lower than for an electric air source heat pump. Heating efficiency of an air source heat 

pump (electric or gas-fired absorption) decreases as outdoor temperature decreases; 

however the gas-fired absorption heat pump recovers waste heat from the combustion 

process to improve heating efficiency.

42

Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

43

Residential Cordwood Stoves

* EPA Certified Default Level no longer listed here because 2015 EPA rule requires that manufacturers test and report the efficiency of their stoves 

and, therefore, manufacturers no longer have the option to report the default value.

** Efficiency includes combustion and heat transfer efficiency and is based on the higher heating value (HHV) of the fuel.

*** Installed cost includes cost of hearth and stainless steel chimney liner - materials and labor.

**** Annual maintenance cost of catalytic stove includes periodic cost of replacing the catalytic combustor.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical* High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Efficiency (Non-Catalytic) (HHV)** 58 63 70 76 70 77 73 78 74 79 75 80

Efficiency (Catalytic) (HHV)** 68 72 78 84 78 84 81 85 82 86 83 87

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost ($) (NonCatalytic) 2,400 2,450 2,450 2,650 2,450 2,650 2,550 2,750 2,650 2,850 2,750 2,950

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 

(Catalytic) 3,300 3,000 3,000 3,200 3,000 3,200 3,100 3,300 3,200 3,400 3,300 3,500

Total Installed Cost ($) (NonCatalytic) 7,000 7,050 7,050 7,250 7,050 7,250 7,150 7,350 7,250 7,450 7,350 7,550

Total Installed Cost ($) (Catalytic) 7,900 7,600 7,600 7,800 7,600 7,800 7,700 7,900 7,800 8,000 7,900 8,100

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) (Non 

Catalytic) 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 

(Catalytic) 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Residential cordwood stoves that must meet EPA particulate limits fall into two broad 

classes based on whether or not they use a catalyst for air treatment. Catalytic wood 

stoves use a catalytic combustor to reduce emissions from the combustion air. Noncatalytic wood stoves use baffles and introduce secondary air above the flames to enable 

more complete combustion and reduce emissions. 

• In 2015, EPA published an update to its New Source Performance Standards (NSPS), 

decreasing the emissions limit (previously set by 1988 EPA rule) to 4.5 g/hr for both 

catalytic and non-catalytic stoves. The new rule did not institute efficiency standards, 

but required that manufacturers test and certify the efficiency of their stoves. This 

standard took full effect on January 1, 2016.

• The 2015 EPA rule stipulates that, in 2020, emissions requirements for wood stoves will 

be lowered to 2.5 or 2.0 g/hr (depending on the test method used). 

• Prior to the 2015 rule, manufacturers could either submit efficiency data from laboratory 

testing or certify with the default efficiency value designated by EPA. EPA’s default 

efficiency values were 63% for non-catalytic wood stoves and 72% for catalytic wood 

stoves. Under this system, few manufacturers submitted efficiency test data to EPA.

• Some states still have emissions requirements that are more stringent than the EPA’s 

standard (e.g., Washington).

• EPA notes in its 2015 rule that efficiency requirements may be included in a future 

rulemaking.

44

Residential Cordwood Stoves Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• A federal tax credit for efficient wood stoves was offered from 2009 to 2016 and 

retroactively for 2017. Some states offered tax credits through 2017 (e.g., Oregon).

• Multiple test standards are commonly used to assess stove efficiency and data from 

product literature does not generally identify the efficiency test method. It’s not possible 

to determine performance trends based on construction or configuration (e.g., cast iron 

vs. plate steel, powered blowers vs. no blowers, etc.) trends in specific equipment type 

or construction based on published efficiencies. Further, EPA certification data shows 

no significant relationship between emissions and heating efficiency.

• Cordwood stoves require chimneys for venting combustion gases. Whether 

conventional masonry chimneys are used or metal chimney liners, these add 

considerable cost to the overall system. Accordingly, installed costs can be twice that of 

the wood stove itself. 

45

Residential Cordwood Stoves Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

46

Residential Cordwood Stoves

Source: HPBA, no post-2012 sales data was publicly available at time of publication.

Cordwood stove shipments have averaged 123,000 per year since 1999 

and have fluctuated roughly in accordance with fuel oil costs.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

47

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves

* EPA Certified Default Level removed because 2015 EPA rule requires that manufacturers test and report the efficiency of their stoves. 

Therefore, manufacturers no longer have the option to report the default value.

** Efficiency includes combustion and heat transfer efficiency and is based on the higher heating value (HHV) of the fuel.

*** Installed cost includes cost of hearth and vent pipe - materials and labor.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Efficiency (HHV) 65 70 76 87 76 87 77 87 78 88 79 89

Annual Electricity 

Consumption (kWh) 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 3,300 3,300 3,300 4,000 3,300 4,000 3,400 4,000 3,500 4,100 3,600 4,200

Total Installed Cost ($) 4,700 4,700 4,700 5,400 4,700 5,400 4,800 5,400 4,900 5,500 5,000 5,600

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• In 2015, EPA published an update to its New Source Performance Standards (NSPS), 

limiting emissions for wood pellet stoves to 4.5 g/hr. Prior to the 2015 EPA rule, most 

pellet stoves were exempt from EPA’s NSPS requirements. The new rule did not

institute efficiency standards, but required that manufacturers test and certify the 

efficiency of their stoves. This standard took full effect on January 1, 2016.

• The 2015 EPA rule stipulates that, in 2020, emissions requirements for wood stoves will 

be lowered to 2.5 or 2.0 g/hr (depending on the test method used). 

• EPA notes in its 2015 rule that efficiency requirements may be included in a future 

rulemaking.

• Prior to the 2015 rule, manufacturers could either submit efficiency data from laboratory 

testing or use a default efficiency value designated by EPA (78% for pellet stoves). 

Under this system, few manufacturers submitted efficiency test data to EPA.

• Some states still have emissions requirements that are more stringent than the EPA’s 

standard (e.g., Washington).

• A federal tax credit for efficient wood stoves was offered from 2009 to 2016 and 

retroactively for 2017. Some states offered tax credits through 2017 (e.g., Oregon).

48

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

• Multiple test standards are commonly used to assess stove efficiency and data from 

product literature does not generally identify the efficiency test method. 

• It’s not possible to determine performance trends based on construction or 

configuration (e.g., cast iron vs. plate steel, powered blowers vs. no blowers, etc.) trends 

in specific equipment type or construction based on published efficiencies. Further, 

EPA certification data shows no significant relationship between emissions and heating 

efficiency.

• Wood pellet stoves may be able to be direct vented to the outdoors, eliminating the 

need for a chimney. This reduces the overall system cost as compared to a cord wood 

stove. However, they do use electricity to power the pellet feeder, the combustion air 

fan, and the blower. In the event of a power outage, a pellet stove can not operate 

without some back-up source of electricity (e.g., battery) . 

49

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

50

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves

Source: HPBA, no post-2012 sales data was publicly available at time of publication.

Wood pellet stove shipments grew substantially in the 2005 – 2008 

time period, but have averaged only 40,000 – 60,000 units since that 

time. 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

51

Residential Water Heaters

• On December 29, 2016, the metric for the current Federal standard was translated from 

Energy Factor (EF) to Uniform Energy Factor (UEF)1. 

• The UEF test procedure is conceptually similar to the EF test procedure in that it is a 24-

hour simulated-use test of how the water heater would be expected to perform in the 

field.

— The EF test procedure consists of one draw pattern for all models. 

— The UEF test procedure consists of 4 possible draw patterns. 

 The particular draw pattern a water heater is tested to is determined through a 

delivery capacity test (first-hour rating or maximum GPM).

 A draw pattern is a set of instructions specifying when, how fast (flow rate), and 

how much (volume) hot water is removed from the water heater.

 Therefore, a water heater designed to deliver a small amount of hot water is not 

tested the same as a water heater designed to deliver a large amount of hot water.

1Test Procedures for Consumer and Commercial Water Heaters; Final rule. 81 FR 96204.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

52

Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

Uniform Energy 

Factor (UEF)* 0.58 0.58 0.61 0.63 0.66 0.81 0.63 0.81 0.66 0.81 0.66 1.3 0.66 1.3

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

500 500 700 750 800 1,850 750 1,850 800 1,850 800 1,850 800 1,850

550 550 1,000 1,200 1,350 2,100 1,200 2,100 1350 2,100 1350 2,100 1350 2,100

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)**

1,050 1,050 1,350 1,400 1,500 2,450 1,400 2,450 1500 2,450 1500 2,450 1500 2,450

1,050 1,050 2,300 2,450 2,550 3,700 2,450 3,700 2550 3,700 2550 3,700 2550 3,700

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 0.60 EF. Analysis is based on an average of medium and high draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of 

the market.

** Installed cost reflects differences in installation cost between typical and high efficiency products. Typical efficiency products are non-condensing, 

whereas the high efficiency products are condensing and require different installation. Furthermore, higher UEF can be achieved by additional insulation, 

which also increases the size of the unit and the associated installation cost.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

Typical efficiency level and product costs increase to ENERGY STAR levels. 

Increased high efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• The equations for the revised Federal standards are:

• There are currently no models on the market above 55 gallons due to the high UEF which would require using 

condensing or gas-fired heat pump (e.g., absorption) technology to achieve.

• The ENERGY STAR UEF levels for models with storage volume ≤ 55 gallons are typically achievable through the 

use of a power vent or flue damper.

• The cost of installation is typically $600 to $1200, which exceeds that of electric water heaters. This difference can 

be attributed to multiple differences, gas-fired heaters require an extra 1.5 hours of labor for 2 plumbers that is 

required for gas units. 

• Condensing units are high efficiency and use PVC venting instead of stainless-steel. High efficiency condensing 

units also use an electrical supply for electronic ignition and power venting. Some building codes require 

condensate neutralizer filters.

• Advanced Case: Increased incentives move typical efficiency products to ENERGY STAR levels by 2030. The 

current typical efficiency product is at 0.63 UEF, while ENERGY STAR is at 0.66 UEF with only a small difference 

in costs. It is expected that with more market incentives, manufacturers will produce more products that can be 

ENERGY STAR certified at the 0.66 UEF level. Furthermore, high efficiency gas absorption heat pump water 

heaters are expected to enter the market by 2040, which will dramatically increase maximum achievable UEF.

53

Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

Volume 

Range Draw Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

≥ 20 gal and ≤ 

55 gal

Very Small UEF=0.3456-(0.002*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Low UEF=0.5982-(0.0019*Gal) 0.54 for a 29-gallon water heater N/A

Medium UEF=0.6483-(0.0017*Gal) 0.58 for a 38-gallon water heater 0.64

High UEF=0.692-(0.0013*Gal) 0.64 for a 48-gallon water heater 0.68

> 55 gal and ≤ 

100 gal

Very Small UEF=0.647-(0.0006*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Low UEF=0.7689-(0.0005*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Medium UEF=0.7897-(0.0004*Gal) No models on the market 0.78

High UEF=0.8072-(0.0003*Gal) No models on the market 0.80

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipments were flat at 5 million units per year through 2004, then 

declined gradually over 5 years to a new plateau at 4 million units 

until rising again to a max of 4.5 million units in 2014.

54

Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

Source: http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Residential-Storage-Water-Heaters-Historical-Data.aspx

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

55

Residential Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 0.50 EF. Analysis is based on an average of medium and high draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of 

the market

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 30 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32

Uniform Energy Factor 

(UEF)* 0.51 0.51 0.64 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.69

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

1,350 1,350 1,500 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600

1,450 1,450 1,900 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

2,000 2,000 2,100 2,250 2,200 2,250 2,200 2,250 2,200 2,250 2,200 2,250 2,200

2,100 2,100 2,700 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• The equations for the Federal standards are:

• There are no ENERGY STAR levels for oil-fired storage water heaters.

• Annual shipments of residential oil-fired storage water heaters are approximately 

40,000, which is ~1% of shipments of residential gas-fired storage water heaters. 

• Oil-fired storage water heaters often have smaller tanks with larger input ratings 

relative to natural gas-fired and electric storage water heaters.

• No condensing residential oil-fired storage water heaters currently exist in the U.S. 

market. The highest efficiencies currently on the market are at near-condensing levels.

• Residential oil-fired water heaters utilize power burners and have at least some level of 

electrical power consumption. 

• The max-tech model on the market uses a proprietary “turbo-flue” design to increase 

heat transfer to water.

56

Residential Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

Volume 

Range

Draw 

Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

≤ 50 gal

Very Small UEF=0.2509-(0.0012*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Low UEF=0.533-(0.0016*Gal) No models on the market N/A

Medium UEF=0.6078-(0.0016*Gal) No models on the market N/A

High UEF=0.6815-(0.0014*Gal) 0.64 for a 29-gallon water heater N/A

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

57

Residential Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Uniform Energy Factor 

(UEF)* 0.88 0.88 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.95

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

300 250 250 300 700 300 700 300 700 300 700 300 700

350 450 500 550 900 550 900 550 900 550 900 550 900

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)**

600 500 550 600 1,000 600 1,000 600 1,000 600 1,000 600 1,000

650 800 1,000 1,100 1,450 1,100 1,450 1,100 1,450 1,100 1,450 1,100 1,450

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - - -

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 0.90 EF. Analysis is based on an average of low and medium draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of 

the market

** Installed cost reflects differences in installation cost between typical and high efficiency products. The high UEF products have a larger size (due to 

insulation differences) and therefore require more installation work.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• The equations for the Federal standards are:

• The federal standards for residential electric storage water heaters apply to both electric 

resistance storage water heaters and integrated heat pump water heaters (HPWHs; heat 

pump module and storage tank combined in one unit).

— The Federal standard levels for the ≤55 gallon range are achievable through electric 

resistance and heat pump technology.

— The Federal standards for the >55 gallon range and all ENERGY STAR levels are only 

achievable through heat pump technology. There are no HPWHs on the market that 

cannot meet the applicable Federal standard level.

• Typical storage volumes range from 25-55 gallons for electric resistance storage water 

heaters and 45-80 gallons for HPWHs.

58

Residential Electric Storage Water Heaters

Volume 

Range

Draw 

Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

≥ 20 gal and 

≤ 55 gal

Very Small UEF=0.8808-(0.0008*Gal) No models on the market 2.00

Low UEF=0.9254-(0.0003*Gal) 0.91 for a 27-gallon water heater 2.00

Medium UEF=0.9307-(0.0002*Gal) 0.92 for a 36-gallon water heater 2.00

High UEF=0.9349-(0.0001*Gal) 0.93 for a 45-gallon water heater 2.00

> 55 gal and 

≤ 120 gal

Very Small UEF=1.9236-(0.0011*Gal) No models on the market 2.20

Low UEF=2.0440-(0.0011*Gal) No models on the market 2.20

Medium UEF=2.1171-(0.0011*Gal) 2.03 for a 77-gallon water heater 2.20

High UEF=2.2418-(0.0011*Gal) 2.15 for a 82-gallon water heater 2.20

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

59

Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Uniform Energy Factor 

(UEF)* 2.05 2.05 3.28 2.00 3.55 3.28 3.55 3.28 3.55 3.28 3.55 3.28 3.55

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

1,550 1,100 1,200 1,050 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

1,900 1,400 1,500 1,350 2,300 1,500 2,300 1,500 2,300 1,500 2,300 1,500 2,300

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

1,700 1,450 1,600 1,400 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600

2,450 2,500 2,550 2,400 3,350 2,550 3,350 2,550 3,350 2,550 3,350 2,550 3,350

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 2.00 EF. Analysis is based on an average of low and medium draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of 

the market

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Technology improvements have advanced efficiency and reliability, but the high first-cost 

and lack of awareness among consumers and contractors still precludes high-volume market 

penetration. Although there is an installed base listed for 2009, the market penetration of 

heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) was quite low at that time.

• New Federal standards that came into effect in April 2015 effectively mandate heat pump 

technology for electric storage water heaters with storage volume > 55 gallons.

• Integrated models are the most common configuration for residential HPWHs. Several major 

water heater manufacturers produce such models, and other competitors offer integrated or 

add-on units (for existing electric or indirect storage water heaters). 

• Sales are estimated to be driven partly by rebates and tax credits at the utility, local, state, 

and Federal level. 

• Resistive heating elements are virtually 100% efficient, but there is a jump in efficiency when 

heat pump technology is adopted because heat pumps’ Coefficient of Performance (COP) are 

usually between 2.5 and 4.

• Heat pumps raise the water temperature more slowly than resistive heating elements, so 

most models use backup resistive elements along with the heat pump when hot water 

demand is high. Most HPWHs allow the consumer to control whether resistive elements are 

used in periods of high demand (e.g., “hybrid mode” or “heat pump only mode”).

60

Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipments peaked in 2006 then dropped a total of 22 percent over 

three years and leveled off between 3.7 and 4.3 million units per year. 

61

Residential Electric Water Heaters

Source: http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Residential-Storage-Water-Heaters-Historical-Data.aspx

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

62

Residential Solar Water Heaters

* Costs are for an indirect (active closed loop) system, including tank and backup heater. Smaller capacity/cost systems are typical for southern & western 

states (>2/3 of the current market). Higher capacity/cost systems are required in colder/cloudier regions.

** ENERGY STAR requires OG-300 rating from SRCC. Most installations use SRCC rated collectors; a high efficiency option is not applicable.

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base

Typical / 

ENERGY 

STAR**

Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.)

42 42 42 42 42 42 42

63 65 65 65 65 65 65

Solar Fraction (SF) 0.5 0.5 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56

Solar Energy Factor (SEF) 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Average Life (yrs)

15 15 15 15 15 15 15

30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost* (2017$)

3,500 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800

5,400 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300

Total Installed Cost* (2017$)

7,800 7,100 7,100 7,100 7,100 7,100 7,100

10,200 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Solar water heaters (SWHs) are not subject to federal energy conservation standards, the ENERGY 

STAR requirements are:

• Solar water heaters can be either active or passive. An active system uses an electric pump to 

circulate the heat transfer fluid; a passive system has no pump. Most solar water heaters in the 

United States are the active type.

• Solar water heaters are also characterized as open loop (also called "direct") or closed loop (also 

called "indirect"). An open-loop system circulates household (potable) water through the collector. 

A closed-loop system uses a heat transfer fluid (water or diluted antifreeze, for example) to collect 

heat and a heat exchanger to transfer the heat to household water.

• Solar fraction represents the fraction of total annual water heating energy met by the solar water 

heater. A backup water heating system is required with SWHs, and it is typically most economical 

to size the system to provide about 50% of water heating energy (solar fraction = 0.5).

• Solar Energy Factor (SEF) is defined by the Solar Rating and Certification Corporation (SRCC) as the 

useful energy delivered by the system divided by the total electrical and/or fossil fuel required for 

backup heating, pumping, and controls (the free solar energy input is neglected).

• Over 2/3 of the current SWH market is in the southern or western US (including Hawaii). A collector 

area of 42 ft2 would be typical for these areas. Colder areas of the US would require a larger collector 

(e.g. 65 ft2).

• Installed costs are higher for colder areas where larger collectors are required. Costs also vary 

widely depending on collector quality, type of system, and site-specific characteristics.

63

Residential Solar Water Heaters

Applicable 

Products

Backup 

Fuel

ENERGY STAR 

Requirement Test Method

Whole-home 

solar units

Gas SEF ≥ 1.2 SRCC – OG-300: Operating Guidelines and Minimum 

Electric SEF ≥ 1.8 Standards for Certifying Solar Water Heating Systems 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

64

Residential Gas-fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr) 185 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199

Uniform Energy Factor 

(UEF)* 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.89 0.87 0.97 0.93 0.97 0.93 0.97 0.93 0.97 0.93 0.97

Average Life (yrs)

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

1,150 1,200 700 1,000 850 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050

1,300 1,500 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,650 1,200 1,650 1,200 1,650 1,200 1,650 1,200 1,650

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

1,750 2,200 1,500 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,500 1,600 1,500 1,600 1,500 1,600 1,500 1,600

1,850 3,250 3,200 2,850 3,050 3,300 2,850 3,300 2,850 3,300 2,850 3,300 2,850 3,300

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 90 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130

*Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from EF to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for installed base 2009 

and 2015 are converted values equivalent to 0.82 EF. Analysis is based on an average of low, medium, and high draw pattern units, as this is most 

reflective of the market

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• The Federal standards are:

• The ENERGY STAR levels require the use of condensing technology.

• Navien and Bosch manufacture the highest efficiency high draw pattern models currently available 

on the market, which have a UEF of 0.97. Navien manufactures the highest efficiency medium draw 

pattern models currently available on the market, which have a UEF of 0.96. These levels are 

achieved through the use of electronic ignition, power-direct venting, and condensing the flue gases.

• All of the major water heater manufacturers now offer an instantaneous model.

• The maintenance costs include cleaning the water inlet filter and the heat exchanger of mineral 

deposits and replacing the water valve approximately once every five years for all instantaneous 

water heaters.

• When replacing a storage water heater with an instantaneous water heater, there are significant 

additional costs to upsize the gas supply line to 3⁄4 inch from the typical 1⁄2 inch and change the 

venting.

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives is expected to drive further adoption of condensing 

products, thereby raising the typical efficiency, while increased R&D is expected to improve cost. 

65

Residential Gas-fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

Volume 

Range

Draw 

Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

<2 gal and 

>50,000 Btu/h

Very Small UEF=0.80 No models on the market 0.87

Low UEF=0.81 No models on the market 0.87

Medium UEF=0.81 0.81 0.87

High UEF=0.81 0.81 0.87

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

66

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Top)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 657 512 405 389 364 358 389 358 364 358 362 358 361 358

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 580 570 700 750 850 880 750 880 750 880 750 880 750 880

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 580 570 700 750 850 880 750 880 750 880 750 880 750 880

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

* Product Class 3 is used for this analysis (Refrigerator-freezers—automatic defrost with top-mounted freezer without through-the-door ice service and allrefrigerator—automatic defrost)

** The volume shown here is the nominal total volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted 

volume is equal to the fresh food internal volume plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 21 ft3 and use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and 

Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics)

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

67

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Side)

* Product Class 7 is used for this analysis (Refrigerator-freezers—automatic defrost with side-mounted freezer with through-the-door ice service) 

** The volume shown here is the nominal total volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted 

volume is equal to the fresh food internal volume plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 32 ft3 and use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and 

Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics, ice maker), not replaceable components 

(e.g., water filters)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 1,146 893 705 671 635 509 671 509 635 509 604 509 572 509

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 1,200 1,190 1,310 1,420 1,550 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 1,200 1,190 1,310 1,420 1,550 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980 1,420 1,980

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

68

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Bottom)

* Product Class 5 is used for this analysis (Refrigerator-freezers—automatic defrost with bottom-mounted freezer without through-the-door ice service)

** The volume shown here is the nominal total volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted 

volume is equal to the fresh food internal volume plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 25 ft3 for 2009 and 23 ft3 for all other years. All values represent use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test 

Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the 

updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 651 547 521 480 469 469 480 469 476 469 472 469 469 469

Average Life (yrs)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 980 1,010 1,030 1,120 1,160 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 980 1,010 1,030 1,120 1,160 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,120 1,160

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Current Federal standards1:

— Compliance required beginning September 15, 2014.

— Models divided into 32 product classes based on size (standard or compact), location of freezer (top, 

bottom, or side), type of defrost (automatic or manual), installation configuration (freestanding or builtin), and presence and configuration (through-the-door or inside cabinet) of automatic icemaker

— Limits on annual electricity consumption expressed as functions of adjusted volume2

— New product classes for built-in units

— Amount by which standards are tightened varies by product class

• ENERGY STAR criteria limit annual electricity consumption to 10% less than the Federal standard.

• Current analysis focuses on the three representative product classes analyzed in the recent rulemaking.

• Energy efficiency opportunities include:

— Higher efficiency and/or variable-speed compressor systems

— Larger heat exchangers

— Permanent-magnet fan motor systems (vs. SPM and PSC fan motors)

— Demand defrost systems

— Vacuum-insulated panels

— Thicker insulation (though at a loss of consumer utility)

— Refrigerants (Isobutane vs. R134a)

— Variable anti-sweat heating

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives will push product sales towards the ENERGY STAR level, but 

the technologies used to meet ENERGY STAR are already well-known and prices will likely not rise as 

manufacturing volumes increase at higher efficiencies. 

69

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and Freezers. 10 CFR 430.32(a).

2Adjusted Volume (AV) = (Fresh Volume) + 1.76 × (Freezer Volume). 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Annual shipment volumes have rebounded from a sharp decline 

between 2006 and 2009, reaching approximately 10.9 million units in 

2016.

70

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers

Source: Appliance Magazine; DOE’s Compliance and Certification Database (as of December 2017); Navigant analysis. Dashed 

lines indicate interpolated data.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Side-mount units continue to gain market share, surpassing topmount units in 2017. 

71

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers

Sources: August 2011 Refrigerator Final Rule TSD; DOE’s Compliance Certification Database (as of December 2017); Navigant 

analysis. Dashed bars (2008 to 2017) indicate interpolated data.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

72

Residential Freezers (Chest)

* Product Class 10 is used for this analysis (Chest freezers and all other freezers except compact freezers)

** The volume shown here is the nominal volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted volume is 

equal to the fresh food internal volume (zero for freezers) plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 26 ft3 and use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and 

Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 428 360 300 297 277 275 297 275 290 275 283 275 276 275

Average Life (yrs)

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 420 430 500 500 550 540 500 540 500 540 500 540 500 540

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 420 430 500 500 550 540 500 540 500 540 500 540 500 540

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

73

Residential Freezers (Upright)

DATA*

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)** 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr)*** 763 615 477 446 430 419 446 419 439 419 432 419 425 419

Average Life (yrs)

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 580 590 690 750 790 810 750 810 750 810 750 810 750 810

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 580 590 690 750 790 810 750 810 750 810 750 810 750 810

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)**** 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

* Product Class 9 is used for this analysis (Upright freezers with automatic defrost)

** The volume shown here is the nominal volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted volume is 

equal to the fresh food internal volume (zero for freezers) plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

*** Based on an adjusted volume of 29 ft3 and use of the test procedure established by the 2014 Test Procedures for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and 

Freezers Final Rule. The 2009 value has been adjusted from previous versions to account for the updated test procedure.

**** Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics)

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Current Federal standards1:

— Compliance required beginning September 15, 2014

— Models divided into 10 product classes based on size (standard or compact), orientation (chest or 

upright), type of defrost (automatic or manual), installation configuration (freestanding or built-in), and 

presence of automatic icemaker

— Limits on annual electricity consumption expressed as functions of adjusted volume2

• ENERGY STAR criteria limit annual electricity consumption to 10% less than the Federal standard.

• Current analysis focuses on the two representative product classes analyzed in the recent rulemaking.

• Energy efficiency opportunities include:

— Higher efficiency and/or variable-speed compressor systems

— Larger heat exchangers

— Permanent-magnet fan motor systems (vs. SPM and PSC fan motors)

— Demand defrost systems

— Vacuum-insulated panels

— Thicker insulation (though at a loss of consumer utility)

— Refrigerants (Isobutane vs. R134a)

— Variable anti-sweat heating

— Use of forced convection condenser (for upright freezers)

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives will push product sales towards the ENERGY STAR level, but 

the technologies used to meet ENERGY STAR are already well-known and prices will likely not rise as 

manufacturing volumes increase at higher efficiencies. 

74

Residential Freezers

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and Freezers. 10 CFR 430.32(a).

2Adjusted Volume (AV) = (Fresh Volume) + 1.76 × (Freezer Volume). 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipment volumes have held steady since 2007 at about 2 million 

units per year. Chest freezers represent about 60% of the market.

75

Residential Freezers

Source: Appliance Magazine.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

76

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops

* Although there is no performance standard in effect, the test procedure metric has changed from Cooking Efficiency (%) to Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kBtu/yr) based on the 2016 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products

** Equipment and installed costs are for stand-alone cooktops only (not stoves).

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kbtu/yr)* 1,105 1,061 914 730 914 730 914 730 914 730 914 730

Cooking Efficiency (%) 39 40 45 52 45 52 45 52 45 52 45 52

Average Life (yrs)

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)** 250 250 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260

Total Installed Cost (2017$)** 360 360 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - -

Same as reference case
Review Draft

77

Residential Natural Gas Ovens

* Although there is no performance standard in effect, the test procedure metric has changed from Cooking Efficiency (%) to Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kBtu/yr) based on the 2016 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products

** Equipment and installed costs are for ovens only (not combined ranges). Furthermore, they are reflective of freestanding oven units, which represent 

90% of the market.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Typical Cavity Volume (ft3

)

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kbtu/yr)* 2,077 2,038 1,915 1,660 1,915 1,660 1,915 1,660 1,915 1,660 1,915 1,660

Cooking Efficiency (%) 6.5 6.6 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8

Average Life (yrs)

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)** 510 510 560 610 560 610 560 610 560 610 560 610

Total Installed Cost (2017$)** 620 620 680 720 680 720 680 720 680 720 680 720

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - -

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• DOE analyzes cooktops and ovens separately, although they are often sold together in a 

single unit that combines both a cooktop and an oven into a product referred to as a 

range.

• Since January 1, 1990, gas cooking products with an electrical supply cord have been 

required to not be equipped with a constant burning pilot light. This requirement 

extended to gas cooking products without an electrical supply cord, as of April 9, 2012.

• DOE final rule published in 20091: no standard for cooking efficiency is cost-justified.

• DOE initiated a standards rulemaking in 2014 to consider amended standards for 

cooking products, including gas cooktops and ovens2.

— Most recently, on September 2, 2016, DOE proposed performance-based standards 

for gas cooktops and ovens that would take effect in 2020 if adopted.

• DOE established a new metric called integrated annual energy consumption (kBtu/year) 

to replace cooking efficiency (%).

78

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops and Ovens

1Energy Conservation Standards for Certain Consumer Products (Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Microwave Ovens, and Electric and Gas Kitchen 

Ranges and Ovens) and for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment (Commercial Clothes Washers); Final Rule. 74 FR 16040.

2Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products; Supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking (SNOPR). 81 FR 

60784.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipments have been rising since 2012 and are approaching the peak 

reached in 2005.

79

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops and Ovens

Note: Excludes separate ovens, which were categorized as "built-in" units prior to 2007 and represent a relatively negligible portion of the market. 

For example, between 2012-2014 an average of 32,000 standalone gas ovens, 360,000 gas cooktops, and 4.46 million ranges were sold per year.

Source: Appliance Magazine.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

Combined Energy Factor 

(lb/kWh)* 3.55 3.59 3.73 3.74 4.50 3.74 4.50 3.89 4.50 3.97 4.50 4.04 4.50

Average Life (yrs) 

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 410 410 420 430 650 430 650 430 650 430 650 430 650

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 520 520 530 540 770 540 770 540 770 540 770 540 770

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)** - - - - - - - - - - - - -

80

Residential Clothes Dryers (Electric)

*The efficiency metric changed from energy factor (EF) to combined energy factor (CEF) in 2015. The CEF value for installed base 2009 is a converted value 

equivalent to 3.01 EF

** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

81

Residential Clothes Dryers (Gas)

*The efficiency metric changed from energy factor (EF) to combined energy factor (CEF) in 2015. The CEF value for installed base 2009 is a converted value 

equivalent to 2.67 EF

** Maintenance costs are negligible.

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

Combined Energy Factor 

(lb/kWh)* 3.14 3.18 3.30 3.32 3.49 3.32 3.49 3.32 3.61 3.32 3.61 3.32 3.61

Average Life (yrs) 

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 460 460 480 500 610 500 610 500 640 500 640 500 640

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 630 630 650 660 770 660 770 660 810 660 810 660 810

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)** - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Current standards1 in effect since 2015:

— For standard-size electric units : CEF ≥ 3.73 lb/kWh

— For gas units: CEF ≥ 2.30 lb/kWh

• Remaining efficiency improvement opportunities include:

— Multi-step or modulating heat

— Higher efficiency drum motors

— Inlet air pre-heat

— Better control systems for cycle termination

— Heat pump (for electric clothes dryers)

— Ultrasonic drying (prototype in development at Oak Ridge National Lab)

• EPA developed an ENERGY STAR program for residential clothes dryers, which became 

effective in 2015. In addition, EPA developed an Emerging Technology Award in 2014 to 

recognize advanced high-efficiency clothes dryers introduced to the U.S. market. 

• Standard-size heat pump clothes dryers with CEF of 4.5 currently available in the U.S. 

market. High initial cost and longer drying times have limited market penetration, but some 

utilities are offering rebates to support market penetration. 

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in market incentives, the residential electric clothes dryers 

market will see an increase in adoption of heat pump dryers that improve the typical 

efficiency products.

82

Residential Clothes Dryers

1Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Clothes Dryers. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipment volumes have been on the rise since 2012. Gas dryers 

continue to account for about one-fifth of the market.

83

Residential Clothes Dryers

Source: Appliance Magazine.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

84

Residential Clothes Washers (Front)

*2009 installed base value is equivalent to 2.07 Modified Energy Factor (MEF). The efficiency metric changed from Modified Energy Factor to Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (IMEF) in 2015. 

**2009 installed base value is equivalent to 6.2 Water Factor (WF). The efficiency metric changed from Water Factor to Integrated Water Factor (IWF) in 2015. 

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 3.09 3.66 3.41 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.5 5.6 4.5 5.6 4.5 5.6 4.5 5.6

Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (ft3

/kWh/cycle)* 1.67 2.16 1.84 2.76 2.38 2.92 2.76 3.10 2.92 3.10 2.92 3.10 2.92 3.10

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3

)** 6.5 4.7 4.7 3.2 3.7 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Water Consumption 

(gal/cycle) 20 17 16 14 16 13 14 15 13 15 13 15 13 15

Hot Water Energy 

(kWh/cycle) 0.68 0.21 0.36 0.17 0.24 0.14 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.15

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) 0.15 0.17 0.15 0.21 0.29 0.17 0.21 0.28 0.17 0.28 0.17 0.28 0.17 0.28

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle) 1.02 1.31 1.34 1.22 1.19 1.22 1.22 1.37 1.22 1.37 1.22 1.37 1.22 1.37

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

550 550 600 600 600 600 600 600 700 700 700 700 700 700

700 700 1,000 1,100 1,000 1,200 1,100 1,200 1,200 1,300 1,200 1,300 1,200 1,300

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

700 700 750 750 750 750 750 1350 750 1350 750 1350 750 1350

850 850 1150 1250 1150 1350 1250 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

85

Residential Clothes Washers (Top)

*2009 installed base value is equivalent to 1.2 Modified Energy Factor (MEF). The efficiency metric changed from Modified Energy Factor to Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (IMEF) in 2015. 

**2009 installed base value is equivalent to 12 Water Factor (WF). The efficiency metric changed from Water Factor to Integrated Water Factor (IWF) in 2015. 

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 3 3.28 3.3 3.3 4.5 4.9 3.9 4.9 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.9

Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (ft3

/kWh/cycle)* 0.78 1.14 1.29 1.29 2.06 2.76 1.57 2.76 2.06 2.76 2.06 2.76 2.06 2.76

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3

)** 12.4 9.2 8.4 8.4 4.3 3.5 6.5 3.5 4.3 3.5 4.3 3.5 4.3 3.5

Average Life (yrs)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Water Consumption 

(gal/cycle) 37 30 28 28 19 17 25 17 19 17 19 17 19 17

Hot Water Energy 

(kWh/cycle) 2.25 0.90 0.77 0.77 0.36 0.18 0.71 0.18 0.36 0.18 0.36 0.18 0.36 0.18

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) 0.28 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.15 0.12 0.24 0.12 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.12

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle) 1.31 1.73 1.50 1.50 1.65 1.46 1.51 1.46 1.65 1.46 1.65 1.46 1.65 1.46

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

550 450 400 400 600 750 400 750 500 750 500 750 500 750

700 550 600 600 1,000 1,200 600 1,200 700 1,200 700 1,200 700 1,200

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

700 600 550 550 750 900 550 900 650 900 650 900 650 900

850 700 750 750 1150 1350 750 1350 850 1350 850 1350 850 1350

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• The analysis treats front- and top-loading models separately due to their different energy use characteristics.

• Federal standards1 for standard-capacity clothes washers (≥ 1.6 cubic feet):

• In 2017, around 30% of top-loading models and almost all front-loading models achieve the ENERGY STAR level.

• Energy efficiency improvement opportunities include:

— Higher efficiency motors and higher spin speeds

— Better load sensing for adaptive water fill control

— Reduced water temperature and quantity, while providing equivalent cleaning and rinsing performance

• Maintenance costs include replacement or repair of the drain pump, control board, motor, rubber gaskets, or control 

panel knobs.

• The products on the market with the highest Integrated Modified Energy Factor have significantly larger capacity 

and therefore use more energy per cycle than typical, smaller capacity products but still perform more efficiently on a 

per volume basis.

86

Residential Clothes Washers

Integrated Modified Energy Factor Integrated Water Factor

Top-Loading Front-Loading Top-Loading Front-Loading

Current DOE Standard

(effective 3/7/2015) ≥ 1.29 ≥ 1.84 ≤ 8.4 ≤ 4.7

Current ENERGY STAR

(effective 3/7/2015) ≥ 2.06 ≥ 2.38 ≤ 4.3 ≤ 3.7

Future DOE Standard

(effective 1/1/2018) ≥ 1.57 ≥ 1.84 (no change) ≤ 6.5 ≤ 4.7 (no change)

Future ENERGY STAR

(effective 1/1/2018) ≥ 2.06 (no change) ≥ 2.76 ≤ 4.3 (no change) ≤ 3.2

1Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Clothes Washers. 10 CFR 430.32(g).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Shipment volumes have returned to pre-housing boom levels. Frontloaders’ market share peaked in 2010 at just under 50% and has since 

declined to around 40%.

87

Residential Clothes Washers

Sources: Appliance Magazine; Residential Clothes Washer Direct Final Rule TSD, EERE, April 2012; ENERGY 

STAR shipments data 2015-2016. Dashed lines indicate extrapolated/interpolated data.

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

88

Residential Dishwashers

DATA

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) 383 347 307 270 270 225 270 225 270 225 270 225 270 225

Water Consumption (gal/cycle) 6.88 6.23 5.00 3.50 3.50 2.40 3.50 2.40 3.50 2.40 3.50 2.40 3.50 2.40

Water Heating Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)* 249 226 176 125 125 86 125 86 125 86 125 86 125 86

Average Life (yrs)

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)** 365 370 260 320 320 390 320 390 320 390 320 390 320 390

Total Installed Cost (2017$)** 705 710 425 485 485 555 485 555 485 555 485 555 485 555

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)*** - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case

* Refers to that portion of "Typical Annual Energy Use" that is the energy used to heat water in a separate water heater before it enters the dishwasher. The energy 

used to heat water inside the dishwasher cannot be disaggregated from the total.

** Equipment and installation cost estimates changed significantly between the 2012 DOE analysis, the source for installed base costs, and the 2016 DOE analysis, 

the source for costs in 2017 and later.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note: All values in table reflect 215 cycles/year, as dictated by the test procedure.
Review Draft

• Performance criteria for standard-capacity dishwashers (assumes 215 cycles/year1):

— Federal Standards:

 Jan. 1, 2010: ≤ 355 kWh/yr, ≤ 6.5 gal/cycle (EISA 2007)

 May 30, 2013: ≤ 307 kWh/yr, ≤ 5.0 gal/cycle (DOE Direct Final Rule, published May 2012)

— ENERGY STAR Criteria:

 Aug. 11, 2009 : ≤ 324 kWh/yr, ≤ 5.8 gal/cycle (version 4.0, announced Nov. 2008)

 Jan. 20, 2012: ≤ 295 kWh/yr, ≤ 4.25 gal/cycle (version 5.0, announced April 2011)

 Jan. 29, 2016: ≤ 270 kWh/yr (5% allowance for connected), ≤ 3.5 gal/cycle (version 6.0, announced April 2015)

• ENERGY STAR has maintained a very high market share for several years, so sales-weighted-average efficiency has 

tracked ENERGY STAR levels.

• Test procedures:

— Accounts for motor, dryer, booster heater (if present), and hot water from separate water heater

— Amended test procedure, which took effect May 30, 2013, includes standby and off-mode energy

— ENERGY STAR established a cleaning performance test method; however, cleaning performance reporting is 

currently optional.

• Efficiency improvement opportunities include:

— Better soil sensing 

— Water distribution (small pipes, fine filter, small sump, alternating water use) and controls (flow meter, 

temperature sensor)

— Inline water heater (to minimize sump volume)

— Separate drain pump, high-efficiency, variable-speed circulation pump motor

— Condensation drying (rather than power dry)

89

Residential Dishwashers Return to Table of Contents

1 215 cycles/year is assumed in the current test procedure and current standard. In the 2016 DOE “Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy 

Efficiency Program for Consumer Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Residential Dishwashers” the energy use and economic 

analyses were updated to include RECS 2009 data which resulted in a value of 207 cycles/year. 
Review Draft

Shipments peaked in 2005 during the housing boom, dropped during 

the 2008-2009 recession, and reached a new high in 2016.

90

Residential Dishwashers

Sources: DOE Residential Dishwashers Final Rule Technical Support Document (Table 3.9.2); ENERGY STAR Unit 

Shipment and Market Penetration Report, Calendar Year 2016 Summary; Appliance Magazine

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

91

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces

* DOE's efficiency metric for commercial furnaces accounts only for flue losses, not jacket losses.

**In 2023, the new Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Warm Air Furnaces will take effect. These projections reflect the 2023 minimum 

thermal efficiency requirement for gas-fired furnaces, 81%.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

Thermal Efficiency (%)* 80 80 80 95 81 95 81 95 81 95 81 95

Average Life (yrs) 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 1,050 1,050 1,050 2,450 1,050 2,450 1,050 2,450 1,050 2,450 1,050 2,450 

Total Installed Cost ($) 2,150 2,150 2,150 3,950 2,200 3,950 2,200 3,950 2,200 3,950 2,200 3,950 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)** 170 170 170 180 170 180 170 180 170 180 170 180

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency in 2020.
Review Draft

• Current Federal standard requires minimum 80% thermal efficiency. This metric, 

more commonly called “combustion efficiency” in other contexts, accounts only for 

flue losses, not jacket losses.

— The Federal standard applies to all units manufactured on or after January 1, 

1994 with maximum rated heat input ≥ 225,000 Btu per hour.

— On January 1, 2023, the minimum Federal standard increases to 81% thermal 

efficiency.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a commercial building code in many 

states, stipulates that furnaces that are not within the conditioned space shall not 

have jacket losses exceeding 0.75% of the input rating.

• Commercial furnaces are typically non-condensing with thermal efficiencies ranging 

from 80% to 82%. Recently condensing commercial furnaces have been introduced, 

which achieve up to 95% thermal efficiency. However, condensing models currently 

make up a very small portion of the market.

• Besides capacity, commercial units can differ from residential furnaces in terms of 

the control system (i.e. integration with a Building Management System, twinning, 

or other staging strategies). Commercial systems may also use a heat recovery 

system to pre-heat inlet air. 

• Advanced Case: Slightly increased typical efficiency products in 2020 due to market 

incentives. No significant changes otherwise.

92

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

93

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces

* DOE's efficiency metric for commercial furnaces accounts only for flue losses, not jacket losses.

**In 2023, the new Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Warm Air Furnaces will take effect. These projections reflect the 2023 

minimum thermal efficiency requirement for oil-fired furnaces, 82%.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030** 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

Thermal Efficiency (%)* 81 81 82 85 82 82 82 82

Average Life (yrs) 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 4,650 4,650 4,700 5,050 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 

Total Installed Cost ($) 6,550 6,550 6,600 6,750 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,600 

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)** 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Current Federal standard requires minimum 81% thermal efficiency. This metric, 

more commonly called “combustion efficiency” in other contexts, accounts only for 

flue losses, not jacket losses. 

— The Federal standard applies to all units manufactured on or after January 1, 

1994 with maximum rated heat input ≥ 225,000 Btu per hour.

— On January 1, 2023, the minimum Federal standard increases to 82% thermal 

efficiency.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a commercial building code in many 

states, stipulates that furnaces that are not within the conditioned space shall not 

have jacket losses exceeding 0.75% of the input rating.

• Commercial oil-fired furnaces have thermal efficiencies ranging from 81% to 85% 

and are non-condensing (i.e., not designed for condensation of flue gases).

• Besides capacity, commercial units can differ in terms of the control system (i.e. 

integration with a Building Management System, twinning, or other staging 

strategies). Commercial systems may also use a heat recovery system to pre-heat 

inlet air.

• The maintenance cost estimate assumes two cleanings per year.

94

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

95

Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters

* Capacity is output

** Annual Maintenance Cost is negligible

DATA 

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base: 

Small 

Installed 

Base: 

Large 

Small Large Small Large Small Large Small Large Small Large 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h)* 17 170 17 170 17 170 17 170 17 170 17 170

Efficiency (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Average Life (yrs) 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 850 5,375 850 5,375 850 5,375 850 5,375 850 5,375 850 5,375

Total Installed Cost ($) 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350 1,050 6,350

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)** - - - - - - - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• This analysis examined electric unit heaters.

• Electric unit heaters range in capacity from 2 to 100 kW (7 to 340 kBtu/hr), with 5 to 50 

kW (17 to 170 kBtu/hr) being the most typical units on the market.

• Electric resistance heaters are considered near 100% efficient because there is no heat 

loss through ducts or combustion. 

• Installation time and costs are estimated to be minimal.

96

Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

97

Commercial Electric Boilers

* Capacity is output

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kW)* 165 165 165 165 165 165

Efficiency (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (yrs) 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 9,875 9,850 9,850 9,850 9,850 9,850

Total Installed Cost ($) 14,875 11,750 11,750 11,750 11,750 11,750

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 145 110 110 110 110 110

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• There are currently no federal standards associated with electric boilers.

• The costs shown are for one 165kW unit, which would equate to a steady load of 

approximately 550,000 Btu/hr.

• Service life is determined mainly by water quality. Water conditioning (e.g., filters, 

softeners, de-alkizers, chemical feeders) may be necessary for a given application. 

• Annual maintenance in a typical application would include draining the unit for 

removal of any accumulated scale or sludge buildup.

• Minor end-use inefficiencies for electric boilers result from heat loss through the boiler 

(jacket losses).

98

Commercial Electric Boilers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

99

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers

* The standard level shown here is for small (300 kBtu/h to 2500 kBtu/h) gas-fired hot water commercial packaged boilers, the most common type of 

boiler available on the market.

** DOE's efficiency metric for most types of boilers now accounts for both flue and jacket losses; previously it did not. DOE continues to uses a 

combustion efficiency metric instead for hot water boilers with heat input > 2,500,000 Btu/h.

*** The updated maintenance costs for 2017 and post-2017 are based on the recently issued commercial packaged boilers final rule. The annualized 

maintenance costs estimated in the final rule are based on 2016 RS Means data and differ for condensing vs non-condensing boilers. Appendix 8E of 

the 2016 final rule TSD for commercial packaged boilers provides additional information on how the values are calculated. The cost values in the table 

are for gas-fired hot water CPBs.

Note: In December of 2016, EREE issued a final rule titled Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers. As of October 2017, this rule has not yet been published and therefore these standards are not reflected in the values shown above.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base 

Current 

Standard

*

Typical MidRange High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

Thermal Efficiency (%)** 77 80 85 93 99 85 99 94 99 95 99 95 99 

Average Life (yrs) 30 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 13,150 16,600 22,700 33,250 37,500 22,700 37,500 33,700 37,500 34,250 37,500 34,250 37,500 

Total Installed Cost ($) 20,825 25,800 32,450 42,650 46,750 32,450 46,750 43,100 46,750 43,600 46,750 43,600 46,750 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)*** 1,445 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with corresponding cost increases.
Review Draft

• Commercial packaged gas-fired boilers are classified by:

— Heat input capacity

— Produce steam or hot water

— Draft type (natural draft or not) – for steam boilers

• Most common type is small gas-fired hot water boilers, those with 300,000-2,500,000 Btu/h 

rated heat input.

• Federal standards require thermal efficiency ≥ 77%, 79%, or 80%, depending on type.

• DOE’s efficiency metric, thermal efficiency, now aligns with ASHRAE 90.1 and accounts 

for both flue and jacket losses.

• Large gas-fired hot water boilers i.e., boilers with rated heat input greater than 2,500,000 

Btu/h are required to have combustion efficiency ≥ 82%.

• Similar technologies to the those used in the residential market can be leveraged in the 

commercial arena. The higher efficiency units typically include electronic ignition, power 

burners, and improved heat exchangers. Some also condense water vapor from the flue 

gases to improve heating efficiency.

• DOE issued a Final Rule for Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers on December 28, 2016 that would update the efficiency ratings of gas-fired 

commercial packaged boilers.

• Advanced Case: Condensing gas-fired boilers are expected to dominate the market by 

2030, with corresponding price increases.

100

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

101

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers

* The standard level shown here is for small (300 kBtu/h -2500 kBtu/h) oil-fired hot water commercial packaged boilers, the most common type of oilfired boiler available on the market.

** DOE's efficiency metric for most types of boilers now accounts for both flue and jacket losses; previously it did not. DOE continues to uses a 

combustion efficiency metric instead for hot water boilers with heat input > 2,500,000 Btu/h.

*** The updated maintenance costs for 2017 and post-2017 are based on the recently issued commercial packaged boilers final rule. The annualized 

maintenance costs estimated in the final rule are based on 2016 RS Means data and differ for condensing vs non-condensing boilers. Appendix 8E of 

the 2016 final rule TSD for commercial packaged boilers provides additional information on how the values are calculated. The cost values in the table 

are for oil-fired hot water CPBs.

Note: In December of 2016 EREE issued a final rule titled Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers. As of October 2017, this rule has not yet been published and therefore these standards are not reflected in the values shown above.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard* Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 1,200 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 

Thermal Efficiency (%)** 81 82 85 97 85 97 92 97 92 97 92 97

Average Life (yrs) 30 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 14,250 19,800 22,850 44,550 22,850 44,550 22,850 44,550 22,850 44,550 22,850 44,550

Total Installed Cost ($) 18,625 28,000 31,500 53,250 31,500 53,250 31,500 53,250 31,500 53,250 31,500 53,250

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)*** 1445 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Commercial packaged oil-fired boilers are classified by:

— Heat input capacity

— Produce steam or hot water

• Most common type is small hot water boilers, those with 300,000-2,500,000 Btu/h rated 

heat input.

• DOE’s efficiency metric, thermal efficiency, now aligns with ASHRAE 90.1 and accounts 

for both flue and jacket losses.

• Federal standards require thermal efficiency ≥ 81% for steam boilers and ≥ 82% for hot 

water boilers.

• Exception is large hot water boilers, which must have combustion efficiency ≥ 84%.

• The higher efficiency units typically include improved heat exchangers, and multi-step or 

variable-output power burners.

• Based on current shipment trends, projected shipments of oil-fired CPBs post-2017 are 

expected to decrease with time.

• DOE issued a Final Rule for Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers on December 28, 2016 that would update the efficiency ratings of oil-fired 

commercial packaged boilers.

• Advanced Case: Increased adoption of condensing oil-fired boilers by 2030. However, 

due to low demand and a shrinking market, costs are expected to remain the same.

102

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Commercial Centrifugal Chillers (Water Cooled)

* Capacity is output

**ASHRAE 90.1 data here are for units larger than 400 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2016)

***2017 typical and high efficiency levels determined base on the range of products currently available on the market.

Note: For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance of 

baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. 

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 

90.1** Typical*** High*** Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)*

400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

Efficiency [full-load] 

(kW/ton) 0.66 0.56 0.53 0.45 0.48 0.43 0.44 0.40 0.41 0.39 0.40 0.38

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton) 0.61 0.50 0.37 0.30 0.35 0.28 0.34 0.26 0.33 0.24 0.32 0.23

COP [full-load] 5.4 6.3 6.6 7.8 7.3 8.2 8.0 8.7 8.5 8.9 8.7 9.2

COP [IPLV] 5.9 7.0 9.5 11.7 10.0 12.4 10.5 13.6 10.8 14.7 11.1 15.3

Average Life (yrs) 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton) 325 400 425 575 425 575 425 575 425 575 425 575

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

375 450 475 625 475 625 475 625 475 625 475 625

425 475 500 650 500 650 500 650 500 650 500 650

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

Return to Table of Contents

Higher efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• ASHRAE 90.1-2016 stipulates minimum efficiencies for centrifugal chillers separately from positive displacement 

water-cooled chillers. They are separated into 5 size categories, with categories divided at: 150, 300, 400, and 600 

tons; ASHRAE 90.1-2016 also distinguishes between whether the unit will be optimized for full load (Path A) or 

part load operation (Path B). Data here are for Path A; a Path B chiller may have slightly high full-load 

consumption in exchange for much lower part-load consumption. For example, for a 600 Ton unit:

— Path A: ≥ 0.56 kW/ton full load and ≥0.50 kW/ton IPLV 

— Path B: ≥ 0.585 kW/ton full load and ≥.38 kW/ton IPLV

• Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) recommendations, last updated in Aug 2016, match ASHRAE 

90.1-2016. 

• The highest efficiency centrifugal chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Variable speed drive (VSD) compressors

— Dedicated heat recovery (heat pump chiller)

— Magnetic bearing technology (oil-free operation)

— Greater heat exchanger surface areas; enhanced tube configurations (counterflow)

— Optimized fluid flow velocities

— High efficiency electric motors

— Improved turbomachinery design, resulting in higher compressor efficiency

— Better piping and valving, including electronic expansion valves

— Evaporative condenser for the heat rejection equipment

• Installed costs vary widely depending on equipment needed for installation (e .g. crane) and size of system. This 

is a mature market with centrifugal chillers representing 75% of commercial chiller sales larger than 200 tons.

• Water cooled chiller ratings do not include energy consumption of the cooling tower and therefore are not 

directly comparable to rating for air-cooled chillers.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology are expected to increase 

efficiency without substantially increasing costs. 

104

Commercial Centrifugal Chillers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

105

Commercial Reciprocating Chillers (Air Cooled Only)

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.12 Typical3 High3 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)4

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

Efficiency [full-load] 

(kW/ton)1 1.26 1.19 1.19 1.00 1.15 1.00 1.15 1.00 1.15 1.00 1.15 1.00

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton)1 1.13 0.86 0.86 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.79

COP [full-load]1 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5

COP [IPLV] 1 3.1 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5

Average Life (yrs) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

725 750 750 875 750 875 750 875 750 875 750 875

600 650 650 750 650 750 650 750 650 750 650 750

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

800 850 850 1000 850 1000 850 1000 850 1000 850 1000

700 700 700 925 700 925 700 925 700 925 700 925

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

1 For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance 

of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. 

2 ASHRAE 90.1 data here are for units larger than 150 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2016)

3 2017 typical and high efficiency levels determined base on the range of products currently available on the market.

4 Capacity is output

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Reciprocating chillers are most cost effective for small loads (30-150 ton range). However, 

reciprocating chiller market share continues to be supplanted by screw and scroll chillers. This trend 

has accelerated with the phase out of R-22, which was the refrigerant of choice for reciprocating 

products, which has in turn driven major manufacturers to replace their reciprocating product lines 

with scroll products (rather than redesign reciprocating products for new refrigerants). As a result, 

product options are very limited.

• Reciprocating chillers can be used in either air-cooled or water cooled applications. Reciprocating 

chillers shown in the data are air-cooled. Air-cooled chillers are less efficient than the water-cooled 

models. Listed efficiencies include matched condensers and their associated energy use.

• ASHRAE 90.1-2016 stipulates minimum efficiencies for all air-cooled chillers together, including 

reciprocating chillers, while water-cooled chillers are separated by positive displacement (e.g., 

reciprocating) versus centrifugal models. Air cooled chiller efficiencies are further split by size for 

more and less than 150 tons. ASHRAE 90.1-2016 also distinguishes between whether the unit will be 

optimized for full load (Path A) or part load operation (Path B). Data here are for Path A; a Path B 

chiller may have slightly lower full-load efficiency in exchange for much higher part-load efficiency. 

For example, for a 100 Ton unit:

— Path A: ≥10.1 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B: ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥ 15.8 IPLV EER

• FEMP recommendations for air-cooled chillers (updated August 2016) are:

— Path A (<150 tons): ≥10.4 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B (<150 tons): ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥15.8 IPLV EER (same as 90.1-2016)

• The highest efficiency reciprocating chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Multiple compressors for staged capacity control

— Improved heat-exchangers

106

Commercial Reciprocating Chillers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

107

Commercial Screw Chillers (Air Cooled Only)

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.12 Typical3 High3 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)4

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Efficiency [full-load] 

(kW/ton)1 1.26 1.19 1.18 0.94 1.11 0.91 0.99 0.86 0.93 0.77 0.89 0.73

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton)1 1.13 0.86 0.84 0.57 0.77 0.53 0.65 0.49 0.61 0.43 0.59 0.39

COP [full-load]1 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.7 3.2 3.9 3.6 4.1 3.8 4.6 3.9 4.8

COP [IPLV] 1 3.1 4.1 4.2 6.2 4.5 6.6 5.4 7.2 5.7 8.2 6.0 9.0

Average Life (yrs) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

525 725 725 800 725 800 725 800 725 800 725 800

650 825 825 900 825 900 825 900 825 900 825 900

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

725 800 800 900 800 900 800 900 800 900 800 900

775 975 975 1,050 975 1,050 975 1,050 975 1,050 975 1,050

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

1 For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance 

of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. 

2 ASHRAE 90.1 data here are for units larger than 150 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2016)

3 2017 typical and high efficiency levels determined base on the range of products currently available on the market.

4 Capacity is output

Return to Table of Contents

Higher efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Screw chillers are common in 150 - 500 ton capacities, but are most cost effective for small (<300 tons) 

loads; screw chillers dominate the current market for small to mid-size chillers.

• Screw chillers can be used in either air-cooled or water cooled applications. Screw chillers shown in 

the data are air-cooled. Air-cooled chillers are less efficient than the water-cooled models. Listed 

efficiencies include matched condensers and their associated energy use.

• ASHRAE 90.1-2016 stipulates minimum efficiencies for all air-cooled chillers together, including 

screw chillers, while water cooled chillers are separated by positive displacement (e.g., screw) versus 

centrifugal models. Air cooled chiller efficiencies are further split by size for more and less than 150 

tons. 90.1-2016 also distinguishes between whether the unit will be optimized for full load (Path A) 

or part load operation (Path B). Data here are for Path A; a Path B chiller may have slightly lower 

full-load efficiency in exchange for much higher part-load efficiency. For example, for a 100 Ton 

unit:

— Path A: ≥10.1 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B: ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥ 15.8 IPLV EER

• FEMP recommendations for air-cooled chillers (updated August 2016) are:

— Path A (<150 tons): ≥10.4 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B (<150 tons): ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥15.8 IPLV EER (same as 90.1-2016)

• The highest efficiency screw chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Variable speed compressors and/or multiple compressors

— Economizers

— Improved heat-exchangers

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology are expected to 

increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs. 

108

Commercial Screw Chillers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

109

Commercial Scroll Chillers (Air-Cooled Only)

1 For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance 

of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. 

2 ASHRAE 90.1 data here are for units smaller than 150 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2016)

3 2017 typical, mid, and high efficiency levels determined base on the range of products currently available on the market.

4 Capacity is output

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.12 Typical3 High3 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)4 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140

Efficiency [full-load] 

(kW/ton)1 1.23 1.19 1.16 1.10 1.14 1.08 1.08 1.03 1.04 0.99 0.99 0.94

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton)1

0.99 0.88 0.77 0.72 0.75 0.70 0.71 0.66 0.69 0.63 0.67 0.60

COP [full-load]1

2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7

COP [IPLV] 1

3.7 4.0 4.6 4.9 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.1 5.6 5.3 5.8

Average Life (yrs) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

475 650 700 800 700 800 700 800 700 800 700 800

575 800 850 950 850 950 850 950 850 950 850 950

Total Installed Cost ($/ton) 725 775 825 925 825 925 825 925 825 925 825 925

825 975 1,025 1,125 1,025 1,125 1,025 1,125 1,025 1,125 1,025 1,125

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Return to Table of Contents

Higher efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Scroll chillers range in size from ~20 tons to ~200 tons and can be used in either air-cooled or water cooled 

applications. They are the most common type of chiller for small chiller plants. The scroll chillers shown in 

the data are air-cooled, which is most common. Air-cooled chillers are less efficient than the water-cooled 

models. Listed efficiencies include matched condensers and their associated energy use.

• ASHRAE 90.1-2016 stipulates minimum efficiencies for all air-cooled chillers together, including scroll 

chillers, while water cooled chillers are separated by positive displacement (e.g., scroll) versus centrifugal 

models. Air cooled chiller efficiencies are distinct for more and less than 150 tons. 90.1-2016 also 

distinguishes between whether the unit will be optimized for full load (Path A) or part load operation (Path 

B). Data here are for Path A; a Path B chiller may have slightly lower full-load efficiency in exchange for 

much higher part-load efficiency. For example, for a 100 Ton unit:

— Path A: ≥10.1 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B: ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥ 15.8 IPLV EER

• FEMP recommendations for air-cooled chillers (updated Aug. 2016) are:

— Path A (<150 tons): ≥10.4 EER full load and ≥13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B (<150 tons): ≥9.7 EER full load and ≥15.8 IPLV EER (same as 90.1-2016)

• The highest efficiency scroll chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Multiple compressors for staged capacity control

— Improved heat-exchangers

— Variable speed compressor (or other modulation controls)

• With the phase out of R-22, manufacturers have replaced many of their small reciprocating chiller 

products with equivalent scroll products, making them a primary choice for small tonnage applications.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology are expected to increase 

efficiency without substantially increasing costs. 

110

Commercial Scroll Chillers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

111

Commercial Gas-Fired Chillers (Water-Cooled, Direct-Fired Only)

1 For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications, the seasonal performance 

(represented by the integrated part-load value; IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance 

of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full load, are well represented by the full load efficiency value. For the 2012 

analysis, IPLV was not evaluated and is therefore not available (NA). 

2 Capacity is output

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base: 

Absorption

Installed Base: 

Engine-Driven

ASHRAE 90.1 

Absorption

CA Title 24 - Engine

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Absorption

Engine-Driven

Typical Capacity (tons)2

150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400

COP [full-load] 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.8

COP [IPLV] NA NA 1.0 2.0 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6

Average Life (yrs) 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750

900 850 850 850 900 850 900 850 900 850 900 850 900 850

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850

1,100 1,050 975 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050 1,000 1,050

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton)

20 35 20 35 20 35 20 35 20 35 20 35 20 35

35 50 35 50 35 50 35 50 35 50 35 50 35 50

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Gas-fired chillers are available as either air-cooled (~25-50 tons) or water-cooled (150+ tons). This 

analysis covers only water-cooled chillers of two varieties: absorption and engine-driven vapor 

compression (direct-fired only; indirect steam or hot water driven units are excluded).

• Direct gas firing provides high enough temperatures to operate double effect absorption chillers, 

which operate at a 50-60% higher COP than single effect systems. Triple effect chillers, though not 

commercially available, can boost cooling COP 30-50% beyond double effect chillers. York, Trane, 

and others have worked on prototype direct-fired triple effect absorption chillers, but prohibitively 

high cost of advanced high heat/corrosion-resistant materials required for triple effect absorption 

chillers suggest that this technology will not likely have an impact on the market in the near-term.

• Gas-fired engine-driven chillers pair conventional vapor compression systems(typically screw or 

centrifugal compressors) with natural gas powered-reciprocating engines. They exhibit higher peak 

cooling COP than absorbers, and engine modulation results in better part load performance. Future 

efficiency improvements for engine-driven chillers are not anticipated. Engine driven chillers allow 

the opportunity to recover waste heat for useful purposes. 

• Maintenance costs for engine driven chillers are higher than for other chillers are they include all the 

typical components of a vapor compression chiller in addition to an engine; The engine maintenance 

costs vary depending on the annual run hours of the unit. 

• Limited sales data suggest that the U.S. market for gas-fired chillers is very limited and is mostly for 

replacement units, not for new installations. Recent increases in electric chiller efficiency has 

narrowed the operating cost differential with gas chillers. Asia has the majority of the global gasfired chiller market. 

• Gas-fired chiller installations are particularly valuable in locations where electric rates are high and 

gas prices are low (i.e., low spark spread), where digester or landfill gas sources are available, or 

where waste heat sources are available (e.g., an industrial process or microturbine CHP system) that 

could be used with a hybrid direct/indirect-fired absorption chiller to offset the use of natural gas. 

112

Commercial Gas-Fired Chillers Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

113

Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners

DATA

2012 2017 2020*** 2030  2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR**  High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Output Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Efficiency (EER)* 10.6 11.2 11.3 11.7 12.8 11.8 12.8 12.2 12.8 12.4 12.8 12.6 12.8

Part Load Efficiency (IEER)* 12.4 - 11.6 11.8 21.5 13.1 21.5 16.0 21.5 16.5 21.5 17.5 21.5

Average Life (yrs) 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,650 10,350 7,150 10,350 7,150 10,350 7,150 10,350 7,150 10,350

Total Installed Cost ($) 8,800 8,800 8,800 9,400 14,900 10,250 14,900 10,250 14,900 10,250 14,900 10,250 14,900

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310

Return to Table of Contents

Higher efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.

* Values shown are for air-cooled units with either electric resistance heating or no heating within the same enclosure.

** In 2018 the ENERGY STAR levels will change to 12.2 EER and 14.0 IEER. 

*** In 2018, new energy conservation standards for Small (<135 kBtu/h) Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment will take effect. 

At this time the DOE-regulated metric will change from EER to IEER, and the minimum IEER will be 12.9.

**** In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Small (<135 kBtu/h) Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment will take effect. 

These projections reflect the 2023 minimum efficiency requirement, 14.8 IEER.
Review Draft

• This analysis focused on small air-cooled commercial packaged rooftop air conditioners (90 kBtu/h 

or 7.5 tons), though there are also standards for many other types of commercial air conditioners.

• Amended standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes will take effect in 2018. More 

stringent standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes will take effect in 2023. 

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more costeffective variable speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially 

increasing costs. 

114

Cooling Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Heating Type

Federal Standard

Effective 1/1/2010 

Min. EER

ENERGY STAR version 2.2 

Effective 1/1/2011

Min. EER Min. IEER

Small

( ≥ 65 and < 135)

Electric resistance 

or none

11.2 11.7 11.8

Any other type 11.0 11.5 11.6

Large

(≥ 135 and < 240)

Electric resistance 

or none

11.0 11.7 11.8

Any other type 10.8 11.5 11.6

Air-Cooled Commercial Packaged Air Conditioners

Return to Table of Contents Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners
Review Draft

115

Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Driven Rooftop Air Conditioners

* Only one product available in 2012, market has grown slightly in years since. Typical capacity and COP for 2017 and later are averages of units 

currently available.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (tons) 18 11 11 11 11 11

Heating COP 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

Cooling COP 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Average Life (yrs) 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton)

2,850 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400

3,450 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

3,250 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800

4,250 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 62 62 62 62 62 62

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• There are only a few gas-fired engine-driven rooftop units currently available in the US 

market. The first unit was introduced in 2010. It is an 11 ton packaged heat pump with 

dual scroll compressors, variable refrigerant flow, and a variable speed supply fan. 

Engine coolant heat recovery improves the heating mode COP. 

• There are currently no Federal requirements on gas-fired engine-driven rooftop air 

conditioners or heat pumps.

• Annual sales of the engine-driven rooftop heat pump are estimated at less than 5,000 

units per year.

116

Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Driven Rooftop Air Conditioners/Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

117

Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps

* Values shown are for air-cooled units with either electric resistance heating or no heating within the same enclosure.

** In 2018 the ENERGY STAR levels will change to 11.8 EER, 12.8 IEER, and 3.4 COP. 

*** These efficiency levels reflect DOE's energy conservation standards for Small Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment with a 

2018 compliance deadline. In 2018 the DOE-regulated metric will switch from EER to IEER, and the minimum IEER will be set at 12.2.

  In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Small Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment will take effect. These 

projections reflect the 2023 minimum efficiency requirements IEER of 14.1 and COP of 3.4.

DATA

2012 2017 2020** * 2030**** 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR** High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Efficiency (EER)* 10.2 11.0 11.2 11.3 13.1 11.2 13.1 11.7 13.1 11.9 13.1 12.1 13.1

Part Load Efficiency (IEER) 12.0 - 11.3 11.4 20.3 12.4 20.3 15.0 20.3 15.5 20.3 16.5 20.3

COP (Heating) 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.7

Average Life (yrs) 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 6,050 7,000 7,100 7,150 11,000 7,750 11,000 8,750 11,000 8,750 11,000 8,750 11,000

Total Installed Cost ($) 7,550 9,900 10,100 10,200 16,050 11,150 16,050 12,750 16,050 12,750 16,050 12,750 16,050

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310

Return to Table of Contents

Higher efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• This analysis focused on small air-cooled commercial packaged rooftop heat pumps (90 kBtu/h or 7.5 

tons), though there are also standards for many other types of commercial heat pumps.

• Amended standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes will take effect in 2018. More stringent 

standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes will take effect in 2023.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more cost-effective 

variable speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs. 

118

Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps

Cooling Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Heating Type

Federal Standard

Effective 1/1/2010

ENERGY STAR version 2.2

Effective 1/1/2011

Min. EER Min. COP 

at 47°F Min. EER Min. IEER Min. COP at 47°F

Small

( ≥ 65 and < 135)

Electric resistance 

or none

11.0 3.3 11.3 11.4 3.35

Any other type 10.8 3.3 – – –

Large

(≥ 135 and < 240)

Electric resistance 

or none

10.6 3.2 10.9 11.0 3.25

Any other type 10.4 3.2 – – –

Air-Cooled Commercial Packaged Heat Pumps

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

119

Commercial Ground Source Heat Pumps

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical Mid High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48

COP (Heating)* 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.8 4.0

EER (Cooling)** 12.7 14.1 17.4 19.7 22.1 17.4 22.1 18.0 22.1 18.5 22.1 19.0 22.1

Average Life (yrs)

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 8,500 4,750 5,550 6,100 6,700 5,550 6,700 5,550 6,700 5,550 6,700 5,550 6,700

Total Installed Cost ($)

16,500 14,750 15,550 16,100 16,700 15,550 16,700 15,550 16,700 15,550 16,700 15,550 16,700

37,500 21,750 22,550 23,100 23,700 22,550 23,700 22,550 23,700 22,550 23,700 22,550 23,700

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

* COP values listed are assessed at a "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, DOE sets 

standards at a "water loop" test condition. The AHRI directory lists COP ratings at both sets of test conditions and is used to convert between them 

where necessary. 

** EER values listed are assessed at a full-load "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, 

DOE sets standards at a full-load "water loop" test condition. The AHRI directory lists EER ratings at all sets of test conditions and is used to convert 

between them where necessary.

Note: Residential and commercial GSHPs are very similar - the main difference in data presented is the different capacity (3-ton vs 4-ton) and slightly 

higher installation costs for commercial. DOE does not distinguish between residential and commercial units in its regulations.

Return to Table of Contents

Higher efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• The most common commercial ground source heat pump systems are closed-loop in which water or antifreeze solution is circulated through plastic pipes buried underground. Commercial water-to-air heat 

pumps (WAHPs) range in size from 1 ton or less to over 500 tons depending on whether a distributed or 

centralized architecture is used. Distributed systems are more prevalent.

• Most geothermal WAHPs are rated for capacity and efficiency based on the ISO 13256-1 standard. Heating 

and cooling efficiency measurements under this standard include input energy for fans and pumps on a 

proportional basis that only includes that power required to transport air and liquid through the heat pump. 

The reason for this method is to simplify comparisons between heat pumps and to allow equipment to be 

optimized for real world conditions without suffering rating penalties. Real world energy use will exceed 

ratings predictions as a result of higher fluid static pressure requirements.

• ISO 13256-1 cooling rating conditions call for 77F entering water temperature and 80.6F entering air 

temperature. More typical peak design criteria would be 80-90F entering water temperature and 75F 

entering air temperature. As a result, ISO 13256-1 rated cooling efficiency would be higher than typical 

design peak operation.

• Some WAHPs include efficiency data for a part load operating condition as allowed by ISO 13256-1 for 

multiple stage or variable speed compressors. No seasonal energy efficiency metric (analogous to SEER or 

IEER) currently applies to WAHPs. The annual performance of a geothermal WAHP system can vary more 

widely than for other system types due to the large influence of ground loop design and characteristics.

• The ENERGY STAR® criteria for ground source heat pumps apply only to residential applications.

• Installation cost is for a closed loop system and includes necessary accessories. The ground loop heat 

exchanger and distribution pumping systems represent a majority of the installation cost.

• Low end WAHPs utilize single stage compressors. Higher efficiency units incorporate multiple stage or 

variable speed compressor controls to improve efficiency as well as humidity and temperature control. 

Variable speed electronically commutated (EC) fan motors also improve overall energy efficiency.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more advanced 

compressors, fan motors) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs.

120

Commercial Ground Source Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

121

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

*Different levels of standby loss were not included in this analysis. 

**The range of retail and installed costs represent the range from replacement market to new construction market. 

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Storage Capacity (gal) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199

Thermal Efficiency (%) 81 80 82 94 99 82 99 92 99 95 99 96 99

Average Life (yrs) 13 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)**

3,400 3,300 3,450 3,950 4,050 3,450 4,050 3,300 4,050 3,300 4,050 3,300 4,050

4,200 4,100 4,300 4,850 4,950 4,300 4,950 4,100 4,950 4,100 4,950 4,100 4,950

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)**

4,200 4,150 4,300 5,450 5,550 4,300 5,550 4,350 5,550 4,350 5,550 4,350 5,550

6,050 5,950 6,150 6,500 6,600 6,150 6,600 6,150 6,600 6,150 6,600 6,150 6,600

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270

Higher typical efficiencies with the same equipment costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency. 

Installation costs are higher for condensing than for non-condensing in replacement installations.
Review Draft

• Input capacity ≥ 75,000 Btu/h, and < 4,000 Btu/h per gallon of stored water 

• Federal standard1:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 80%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h) : Input Rate/800 + 110 × (Rated Volume)1/2

• ENERGY STAR requirements:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 94%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h): 0.84 × [(Input Rate/800) + 110 × (Rated Volume)1/2]

• Baseline units are typically constructed similarly to residential units, though with higher input 

capacities (and often higher storage volumes).

• High-efficiency units include condensing heat exchangers (typically stainless or enameled 

steel) to extract additional heat by condensing water vapor in flue gases. Condensing units also 

include an inducer fan system or power burner. The heat exchanger is typically contained 

within the tank, but some designs consist of an external heating module attached to a storage 

tank. 

• Maintenance consists of sediment and scale removal once or twice per year. Estimated cost of 

$270 per year for annual maintenance.

• Advanced Case: Increasing adoption of condensing technology from 2020 to 2030 due to 

market incentives, with costs adjusting so that the condensing units in 2030 will not be higher 

in price due to technology advances and increased economies of scale. However, market will 

experience an increase in installation cost due to the adoption of condensing units. In 

replacement installations, installation costs are higher for condensing units than noncondensing units. 

122

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

1 Energy Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Water Heaters, Hot Water Supply Boilers

and Unfired Hot Water Storage Tanks. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Annual shipments have fluctuated from 99,000 units in 2000 to 

80,000 units in 2012, back to 99,000 units in 2016. 

123

Source: http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Commercial-Storage-Water-Heaters-Historical-Data.aspx

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

124

Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

*Different levels of standby loss were not included in this analysis. 

**The range of retail equipment and installed costs represents the range from replacement market to new construction market. 

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Storage Capacity (gal) 119 119 119 119 119 119 119

Typical Input Capacity (kW) 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Thermal Efficiency (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)**

2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200

Total Installed Cost (2017$)**

3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800

3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Federal standard1:

— Maximum standby loss (%/h) : 0.30 + 27/Measured Storage Volume

— Minimum thermal efficiency: no standard, but all units ≥ 98% anyway

• Storage capacity: typically 50 to 120 gallons, though smaller and larger units exist for 

specialized applications

• Commercial units are typically constructed similar to residential units, though with 

higher input capacities (and often higher storage volumes).

• There is very little variation in thermal efficiency on the market; variation in standby 

loss is typically due to tank design and insulation thickness. 

• Maintenance consists of sediment and scale removal once or twice per year. Estimated 

cost of $50 for annual maintenance. 

125

Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

1 Energy Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Water Heaters, Hot Water Supply Boilers

and Unfired Hot Water Storage Tanks. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

126

Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

Annual shipments increased more than 50 percent over 12 years from 

44 thousand units in 2000 to 67 thousand units in 2012. Since 2012, 

shipments have increased by 89%, with the largest increase of 44% 

occurring in 2016.

Source: http://www.ahrinet.org/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Commercial-Storage-Water-Heaters-Historical-Data.aspx

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

127

Commercial Heat Pump Water Heaters

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Water Flow Rate (gal/min) 34 34 34 34 34 34

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 171 171 171 171 171 171

Coefficient of Performance (COP) 3.9 3.9 3.9 4 4.2 4.4

Average Life (yrs) 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 47,100 47,100 47,100 47,100 47,100 47,100

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 50,950 50,950 50,950 50,950 50,950 50,950

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 100 100 100 100 100 100

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

128

• There are no integrated commercial HPWHs (CHPWHs) on the market (i.e., heat pump 

module and storage tank combined in one unit); all units are add-on units which are typically 

designed to be used with a storage tank(s).

• CHPWHs serve only a small portion of the commercial water heating (CWH) market. Three 

manufacturers (including only one major CWH manufacturer) sell CHPWHs.

• CHPWHs can extract heat from either air or water for heating potable water (“air-source” or 

“water-source”). The capacity of air-source CHPWHs falls at lower ambient air temperatures.

• Air-source CHPWHs cool the surrounding air, which can be desirable when installed indoors 

in applications with a year-round cooling load (e.g., a commercial kitchen).

• Output capacities for CHPWHs range from 17 kW to over 70 kW for air-source units and over 

600 kW for water-source units.

• Some commercial applications require water as hot as 180 °F, such as dishwashing; however, 

most CHPWHs cannot deliver hot water at temperatures higher than 150 °F. 

• There are no current Federal standards for CHPWHs, but DOE prescribes a test procedure for 

determining COPh for CHPWHs.

• ENERGY STAR levels for CWH equipment are under revision. The public final draft of the 

updated specification includes a COPh level of 3.0 for CHPWHs. 

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more 

cost-effective variable speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without 

substantially increasing costs. 

Commercial Heat Pump Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

129

Commercial Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

*Different levels of standby loss were not included in this analysis. 

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Storage Capacity 

(gal) 70 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Thermal Efficiency (%) 79 80 81 82 81 82 81 82 81 82 81 82

Average Life (yrs) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650 4,650

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Input capacity ≥ 105,000 Btu/h, and < 4,000 Btu/h per gallon of stored water 

• Federal standard1:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 80%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h): Input Rate/800 + 110 × (Rated Volume)1/2

• Condensing units do not exist, thus the highest thermal efficiency on the market is 86%.

• Commercial units are typically constructed similar to residential units, though with 

higher input capacities (and often higher storage volumes).

• Maintenance consists of sediment and scale removal once or twice per year. Estimated 

cost of $100–$200 per year for one or two cleanings performed by a plumber.

• The market for commercial oil-fired storage water heaters is very small; shipments are 

approximately 3% of shipments for commercial gas-fired storage water heaters.

130

Commercial Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

1 Energy Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Water Heaters, Hot Water Supply Boilers

and Unfired Hot Water Storage Tanks. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

131

Commercial Electric Booster Water Heaters

* Maintenance costs negligible.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (gal)

6 6 6 6 6 6

16 16 16 16 16 16

Thermal Efficiency (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (yrs)

3 3 3 3 3 3

10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 

1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300

2,800 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 

1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

3,000 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)* - - - - - -

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

132

Commercial Gas-fired Booster Water Heaters

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal)

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Thermal Efficiency (%) 80 80 80 91 80 91 80 91 80 91 80 91

Average Life (yrs)

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) 

4,700 4,900 4,900 8,000 4,900 8,000 4,900 8,000 4,900 8,000 4,900 8,000

6,800 7,700 7,700 9,500 7,700 9,500 7,700 9,500 7,700 9,500 7,700 9,500

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 

5,000 5,200 5,200 8,300 5,200 8,300 5,200 8,300 5,200 8,300 5,200 8,300

7,100 8,000 8,000 9,800 8,000 9,800 8,000 9,800 8,000 9,800 8,000 9,800

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

• Booster water heaters are installed, often at the point of use, in series with the main 

service water heating system to boost service water temperatures. The main service 

water heating system may provide 110-140 °F water, and the booster water heater may 

increase that temperature to 180-195 °F. Typical commercial applications for booster 

water heaters include commercial dishwashers, laundromats, hospitals, and car washes.

• Commercial booster water heaters are regulated by DOE as either storage or 

instantaneous water heaters, depending on the ratio of input capacity to storage 

volume. Units with input capacity < 4,000 Btu/h per gallon of stored water are storage 

water heaters; all other units are instantaneous water heaters.

• DOE’s regulations do not currently include standards for electric instantaneous water 

heaters, but standards are included for electric storage water heaters, gas-fired 

instantaneous water heaters, and gas-fired storage water heaters. 

• Booster water heaters typically have short lifetimes because of high usage and extreme 

temperatures.

• Shipments are small due to the limited number of applications.

133

Commercial Booster Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

134

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

*Commercial gas-fired instantaneous water heaters are categorized into two groups: tankless water heater and hot water supply boiler. Tankless units are 

similar in design to residential tankless units. The hot water supply boiler has a much higher input and is similar in design to boilers. The large variation of 

total input capacity and design causes a large range of costs. The low and high range of retail and installed costs represent the differences in design, as well 

as the cost ranges arising from replacement versus new construction markets.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 

250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399

Thermal Efficiency (%) 80 80 92 94 98 92 98 92 98 94 98 96 98

Average Life (yrs)

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)*

1,900 1,900 2,200 2,250 2,300 2,200 2,300 2,200 2,300 2,200 2,300 2,200 2,300

4,800 4,800 8,450 8,800 9,150 8,450 9,150 8,450 9,150 8,450 9,150 8,450 9,150

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)*

2,550 2,550 3,700 3,750 3,800 3,700 3,800 3,700 3,800 3,700 3,800 3,700 3,800

11,000 11,000 11,300 11,650 12,050 11,300 12,050 11,300 12,050 11,300 12,050 11,300 12,050

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2017$)* 40 40 100 100 110 100 110 100 110 100 110 100 110

Higher typical efficiencies with the same equipment costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency. 

Installation costs are higher for condensing than for non-condensing in replacement installations.
Review Draft

• Input capacity ≥ 200,000 Btu/h, and ≥ 4,000 Btu/h per gallon of stored water 

• Federal standard1:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 80%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h): Input Rate/800 + 110 x (Rated Volume)1/2

• ENERGY STAR requirements:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 94% 

• Wall-mounted (“tankless”) units typically top out at ~400,000 Btu/h and are similar in design to residential 

tankless units. Floor-mounted units (“circulating” or “volume” water heaters) are similar in design to boilers 

and can have input capacities in the millions of Btu/h. Floor-mounted units are typically installed with a 

storage tank.

• Despite high available input capacities, some installations use multiple units staged together, which may 

have reliability and/or efficiency benefits.

• Similar to storage water heaters, higher efficiencies are achieved with condensing operation, which requires 

a condensing heat exchanger and inducer fan or power burner. Some units include both non-condensing 

and condensing heat exchangers, while others include a single condensing heat exchanger.

• When replacing a storage water heater with an instantaneous water heater, there may be significant 

additional costs to upsize the gas supply line and change the venting.

• Advanced Case: Increasing adoption of condensing technology from 2020 to 2030, with costs adjusting so 

that the condensing units in 2030 will not be higher in price due to technology advances and increased 

economies of scale. However, market will experience an increase in installation cost due to the adoption of 

condensing units. In replacement installations, installation costs are higher for condensing units than noncondensing units. 

135

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

1 Energy Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Water Heaters, Hot Water Supply Boilers

and Unfired Hot Water Storage Tanks. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

136

Commercial Solar Water Heaters

* Costs are for an indirect (active closed loop) system, including tank and backup heater. Smaller capacity/cost systems are typical for southern & 

western states (>2/3 of the current market). Higher capacity/cost systems are required in colder/cloudier regions.

** ENERGY STAR requires OG-300 rating from SRCC. Most installations use SRCC rated collectors; a high efficiency option is not applicable.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base

Typical / 

ENERGY 

STAR**

Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.) 83 83 83 83 83 83

Solar Fraction (SF) 0.5 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56

Solar Energy Factor (SEF) 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Average Life (yrs) 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)*

8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300

9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500

Total Installed Cost (2017$)*

11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000

13,100 13,100 13,100 13,100 13,100 13,100

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) 25 25 25 25 25 25

Return to Table of Contents

Same as reference case
Review Draft

137

Commercial Solar Water Heaters

• Solar water heaters are not subject to federal energy conservation standards, the ENERGY 

STAR requirements are:

• Commercial solar water heaters are typically custom designed for a specific installation.

• One major CWH manufacturer sells a commercial integrated solar water heater similar to 

residential designs that includes an indirect solar water heat exchanger and a gas-fired backup 

heat exchanger, and this model is certified to the Solar Rating and Certification Corporation 

(SRCC)’s OG-300, “Operating Guidelines and Minimum Standards for Certifying Solar Water 

Heating Systems.” 

• Commercial solar water heaters may include backup heating, from sources such as electric 

resistance or hydronic heat (supplied from a gas-fired boiler or geothermal heat pump).

• Storage volumes of tanks for commercial solar water heaters can span from 140 gallons to 

over 2,000 gallons.

• SRCC’s OG-300 can be used to certify commercial systems, but most commercial systems are 

larger and unique, so this certification program is mostly used for residential solar water 

heaters.

— Many incentive programs require that solar collectors for commercial systems be certified 

to SRCC’s certification program for collectors, OG-100.

Applicable 

Products

Backup 

Fuel

ENERGY STAR 

Requirement Test Method

Whole-home 

solar units

Gas SEF ≥ 1.2 SRCC – OG-300: Operating Guidelines and Minimum 

Electric SEF ≥ 1.8 Standards for Certifying Solar Water Heating Systems 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

138

Commercial Natural Gas Ranges with Griddle and Ovens

*ENERGY STAR does not cover combination products that include griddles, ranges, and ovens in one single package. The ENERGY STAR levels provided 

here reflect specifications for individual products. Range tops are not covered by ENERGY STAR.

** Products in the commercial cooking market generally do not scale in price with relation to cooking efficiency. Distributors also do not provide this 

information.

*** Maintenance costs are negligible.

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR* High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Input Capacity (kBtu) 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 30 30 38 52 30 52 33 52 36 52 40 52

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 35 35 46 50 35 50 39 50 42 50 47 50

Range - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 30 30 N/A 40 30 40 33 40 36 40 39 40

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(Btu/h/ft2

) 3,000 3,000 2,650 1,080 3,000 1,180 2,700 1,180 2,450 1,180 2,200 1,180

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) 18,000 18,000 12,000 7,180 18,000 7,180 16,200 7,180 14,600 7,180 13,150 7,180

Range - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) 3,600 3,600 N/A 1,900 3,600 1,900 3,250 1,900 2,950 1,900 2,650 1,900

Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)** 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)* – – – – – – – – – – – –

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

139

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR* High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Input Capacity (kW) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 65 70 70 86 70 86 72 86 74 86 76 86

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 65 65 N/A 80 65 80 67 80 69 80 71 80

Range - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 75 75 N/A 85 75 85 77 85 80 85 82 85

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(kW/ft2

) 0.44 0.34 0.32 0.20 0.34 0.20 0.32 0.20 0.29 0.20 0.27 0.20

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (kW) 1.50 1.50 1.00 0.90 1.50 0.90 1.40 0.90 1.30 0.90 1.21 0.90

Range - Idle Energy Rate (kW)** N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)*** 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550 9,550

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700 9,700

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)**** – – – – – – – – – – – –

*ENERGY STAR does not cover combination products that include griddles, ranges, and ovens in one single package. The ENERGY STAR levels provided 

here reflect specifications for individual products. Range tops are not covered by ENERGY STAR.

**No data on electric range top idle energy rates.

*** Products in the commercial cooking market generally do not scale in price with relation to cooking efficiency. Distributors also do not provide this 

information.

**** Maintenance costs are negligible.

Commercial Electric Ranges with Griddle and Ovens Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Combined product that typically includes 2-6 range tops, a 24 in. x 24 in. griddle surface, and one or 

two half- or full-size ovens. 

• Combined product is not covered by ENERGY STAR. However, the individual product ENERGY 

STAR specifications are provided below.

• ENERGY STAR does not provide certification for range tops.

• There are no Federal standards for commercial cooking products.

• Product pricing in this market does not scale with efficiency, but rather depend on a number of other 

factors such as brand name, aesthetics, and additional features.

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives are expected to drive efficiency improvements. 

However, because cost does not scale with efficiency, there is no significant expected change in cost. 

140

Product ENERGY STAR 

Requirements

Gas Electric

Griddle

Cooking Energy Efficiency ≥ 38% ≥ 70%

Normalized Idle Energy Rate ≤ 2,650 Btu/h per 

ft2

≤ 0.320 kW per ft2

Oven

Cooking Energy Efficiency ≥ 46% ≥ 71%

Idle Energy Rate ≤ 12,000 Btu/h Half size: ≤1.00 kW

Full size: ≤1.60 kW

Commercial Ranges with Griddle and Ovens Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

141

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets

DATA

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

State 

Standards Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Interior Volume (ft3

) 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4

Maximum Idle Energy Rate (W) 900 856 856 297 154 856 154 685 154 548 154 438 154

Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 2,500 3,850 3,850 4,200 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500

Total Installed Cost (2017$) 2,500 3,850 3,850 4,200 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500 3,850 5,500

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)* – – – – – – – – – – – – –

* Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Review Draft

• Used in commercial kitchens to keep food warm until it is served.

• Many shapes and sizes, but interior volumes around 21.4 ft3 typical in many settings.

• Annual unit energy consumption can range from < 1,000 to > 30,000 kWh/y, depending on 

size, efficiency, and usage.

• Energy performance metric is “Idle Energy Consumption Rate” in Watts, measured using 

ASTM Standard F2140-11.

• No Federal standards, but eight identical State standards, first took effect in California in 2006, 

now considered the typical or “baseline” product. ENERGY STAR version 2.0 took effect 

October 1, 2011.

• Maximum Idle Energy Consumption Rate for products 12 ≤ V < 28:

— State standards: ≤ 40 × V (baseline)

— ENERGY STAR: ≤ 2.0 × V + 254 (about 65% below baseline)

where V is interior volume in ft3.

• The most efficient products are about 80% below baseline.

• Energy savings achieved with insulation, automatic door closers, magnetic door gaskets, and 

Dutch doors (half-doors).

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives are expected to drive efficiency improvements. 

However, because cost does not scale with efficiency, there is no significant expected change 

in cost. 

142

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

143

Appendix A

Data Sources

Navigant Consulting, Inc.

1200 19 St. NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

(202) 973-2400

www.navigantconsulting.com

A-1

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces

A-2

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

(North)

High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Navigant Navigant EERE

Navigant

AFUE (%) Navigant Navigant EERE EERE

ENERGY 

STAR 

v4.1

AHRI

Electric Consumption 

(kWh/yr)

EERE/

Navigant Average Life (yrs) EERE 2015

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

North & Rest of Country
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces

A-3

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) Navigant EERE

Navigant

AFUE (%) Navigant EERE Navigant ENERGY 

STAR v4.1 AHRI

Electric Consumption (kWh) EERE EERE 2011

Average Life (yrs) EERE EERE 2015

Retail Equipment Cost ($) EERE EERE 2011

Total Installed Cost ($) EERE EERE 2011

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) EERE EERE 2011
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Gas-Fired Boilers

A-4

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) EERE 2007 EERE 2015 (Section 5.4.1 of the TSD)

Navigant

AFUE (%) EERE 2007/ 

Navigant EERE 2007 EERE 2007 AHRI 

Database

ENERGY 

STAR v3.0

AHRI 

Database

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($) EERE 2007

EERE 2015 (LCC Analysis Spreadsheet "Statistics" tab)

Total Installed Cost ($) EERE 2007

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) EERE 2007 EERE 2015 (Section 8.2.2.4 of the TSD)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Oil-Fired Boilers

A-5

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) EERE EERE 2015 (Section 5.4.1 of the TSD)

Navigant

AFUE (%) EERE / 

Navigant EERE 2007 EERE 2007 AHRI 

Database

ENERGY 

STAR v3.0 EERE 2007

Average Life (yrs) EERE EERE

Retail Equipment Cost 

($) EERE EERE 2015 (LCC Analysis Spreadsheet "Statistics" tab)

Total Installed Cost ($) EERE EERE 2015 (LCC Analysis Spreadsheet "Statistics" tab)

Annual Maintenance 

Cost ($) EERE EERE 2015 (Section 8.2.2.4 of the TSD)
Review Draft

A-6

Data Sources » Residential Electric Resistance Furnaces

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors

Navigant

Efficiency (%) DOE/ASHRAE

Average Life (yrs) Distributors

Retail Equipment Cost ($) RS Means 2017

Total Installed Cost ($) RS Means 2017

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

A-7

Data Sources » Residential Electric Resistance Heaters

DATA 

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors

Navigant

Efficiency (%) Navigant

Average Life (yrs) Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 2017 RS Means

Total Installed Cost ($) 2017 RS Means

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Central Air Conditioners

A-8

South (Hot-Dry and Hot-Humid)

North (Rest of Country)

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) EERE EERE

Navigant

SEER

EERE / 

Navigant

EERE / 

Navigant eCFR EERE ENERGY 

STAR EERE

Average Life (yrs)

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) EERE EERE

Navigant

SEER

EERE / 

Navigant

EERE / 

Navigant eCFR EERE ENERGY 

STAR EERE

Average Life (yrs)

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Air Source Heat Pumps

A-9

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) EERE / AHRI EERE

Navigant

SEER (Cooling)

EERE / 

Navigant

EERE / 

Navigant eCFR EERE ENERGY STAR EERE

HSPF (Heating)

EERE

Average Life (yrs)

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Ground Source Heat Pumps

A-10

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) AHRI/Navigant EERE

Navigant

COP (Heating) Navigant AHRI 

Database 

ASHRAE 

90.1-2016

AHRI 

Database 

ENERGY 

STAR

AHRI 

Database 

EER (Cooling) Navigant AHRI 

Database 

AHRI 

Database 

ENERGY 

STAR

AHRI 

Database 

Average Life (yrs) Navigant / EERE

Navigant / EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Distributors/IGSHPA

/EERE 

2009/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($)

Distributors/IGSHPA

/EERE 

2009/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Room Air Conditioners

A-11

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr) Distributors AHAM 

Navigant

EER and CEER Navigant EERE CCMS ENERGY 

STAR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) Appliance Magazine, 2012

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE

Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) Navigant Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Portable Air Conditioners

A-12

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr) 

EERE Navigant

CEER

Average Life (yrs)

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps

A-13

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Manufacturer

Navigant

Heating (COP) Product Literature

Cooling (COP) Product Literature

Annual Electric Use (kWh/yr) Product Literature

Average Life (yrs) Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) PERC

Total Installed Cost ($) Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

A-14

Data Sources » Residential Cord Wood Stoves

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors / Product Literature

Navigant

Efficiency (Non-Catalytic) (HHV)

Navigant / 

Literature

EPA Default / 

Literature / 

Navigant

EPA Certified Wood Heater 

List August 2016

Efficiency (Catalytic) (HHV)

Average Life (yrs) Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) Product Lit. / 

Dealers Product Literature/Dealers

Total Installed Cost ($) Dealers

Dealers/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Dealers / 

Navigant
Review Draft

A-15

Data Sources » Residential Wood Pellet Stoves

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors / Product Literature

Navigant

Efficiency (HHV) Navigant/ 

Literature

EPA 

Default/Literat

ure/Navigant

EPA Default/EPA Certified 

Wood Heater List August 

2016/Navigant

Average Life (yrs) Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) Product Literature/ Dealers

Total Installed Cost ($)

Dealers Dealers/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

A-16

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI / 

Distributors Navigant EERE 2010/AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant EERE 2016 CCMS ENERGY 

STAR AHRI/CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors EERE 2010 Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Distributors / RS Means 

2010 EERE 2010

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 2010

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

A-17

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI / 

Distributors

Navigant

EERE 2010/AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant EERE 2016 AHRI/CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors

EERE 2010

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Distributors 

/ RS Means 

2007

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 2010

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

A-18

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI / 

Distributors AHRI EERE 2010/AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant EERE 2016 AHRI/CCMS AHRI

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors EERE 2010 EERE 2010 Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Distributors 

/ RS Means 

2010

EERE 2010

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) EERE 2010

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Heat Pump Storage Water Heaters

A-19

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI Navigant AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant Navigant CCMS ENERGY STAR AHRI/CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) RS Means 

2010 / ACEEE 

2007

EERE 2010 Distributors EERE 2010 Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) EERE 2010

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 2010

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Solar Water Heaters

A-20

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical / 

ENERGY STAR** Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.) SRCC / Navigant

Navigant

Overall Efficiency (Solar Fraction) DOE / SRCC / Navigant

Solar Energy Factor SRCC / Navigant

Average Life (yrs) DOE / Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost1 (2017$) RS Means Online 2017

Total Installed Cost1 (2017$) RS Means Online 2017

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Instantaneous Water Heaters

A-21

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/hr) EERE AHRI EERE 2010/AHRI

Navigant

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) Navigant Navigant EERE 2016 CCMS ENERGY 

STAR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2010

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) 

Distributors 

/ RS Means 

2010

Total Installed Cost (2017$) DEER 2008 EERE 2010

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) Navigant

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Refrigerator-Freezers and Freezers

A-22

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

) EERE 2011 / Navigant

Navigant

Energy Consumption 

(kWh/yr) Navigant EERE 2011 Navigant ENERGY STAR Navigant

Average Life (yrs)

EERE 2011 / Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Natural Gas Cooktops

A-23

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors / Product Literature

Navigant

Integrated Annual Energy 

Consumption (kBtu/yr) EERE Navigant EERE 

Cooking Efficiency (%) Navigant

Average Life (yrs)

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) Navigant / EERE 
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Clothes Dryers (Electric)

A-24

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3) Navigant / CCMS

Navigant

CEF (lb/kWh) EERE / Navigant EERE CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE / Navigant 

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Clothes Dryers (Gas)

A-25

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 

EERE / Navigant

CCMS

Navigant

CEF (lb/kWh) EERE CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE / Navigant

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE 

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

)

Navigant

Navigant CCMS

CCMS

CCMS

CCMS

Navigant

Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (ft3

/kWh/cycle) AHAM / 

Navigant EERE

ENERGY 

STAR

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3

)

ENERGY 

STAR

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Water Consumption 

(gal/cycle) Navigant / EERE

Hot Water Energy (kWh/cycle)

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) Navigant 

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle)

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) EERE / Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Navigant / RS Means 2016

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE

Data Sources » Residential Clothes Washers

A-26

Front-Loading

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Clothes Washers

A-27

Top-Loading

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

)

Navigant

Navigant CCMS

CCMS

CCMS

CCMS

Navigant

Integrated Modified Energy 

Factor (ft3

/kWh/cycle) AHAM / 

Navigant EERE ENERGY STAR

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3

)

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Water Consumption (gal/cycle) Navigant / EERE

Hot Water Energy (kWh/cycle)

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) Navigant 

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle)

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) EERE / Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Navigant / RS Means 2016

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Residential Dishwashers

A-28

SOURCES

2009 2015 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)

AHAM 2014 / EERE 

2012

CFR

Navigant / 

CCMS / 

ENERGY 

STAR

ENERGY 

STAR EERE 2016 

Navigant

Water Consumption 

(gal/cycle)

Water Heating Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) EERE 2016

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2016 / Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE 2012 EERE 2016

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) Navigant

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces

A-29

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) AHRI EERE

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%) AHRI 10 CFR 

431.77 DOE CCMS

Average Life (yrs)

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces

A-30

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical 

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 

AHRI

DOE CCMS

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%) 10 CFR 431.77 DOE CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($) EERE EERE / Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters

A-31

DATA 

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Small Large Small Large Small / Large

Typical Capacity (kBTU/h) Distributors/Navigant

Navigant

Efficiency (%) Navigant

Average Life (yrs) Technology Cost and Performance File for Commercial Model 

for AEO2010

Retail Equipment Cost ($) 

RS Means 2017

Total Installed Cost ($) 

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Boilers

A-32

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kW) BSRIA

Navigant

Efficiency (%) EERE / Navigant

Average Life (yrs)

ASHRAE 2007 

HVAC 

Applications

ASHRAE 2015 

HVAC 

Applications

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

RS Means 

2013/Navigant Total Installed Cost ($) RS Means 2017

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers

A-33

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard* Typical MidRange High Typical High Typical/High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Navigant EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%)

ASHRAE 

Standard 

90.1-2004 

/ Navigant

EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant

Average Life (yrs) EERE EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($) RS Means 

2011 EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($) RS Means 

2011 EERE Issued Final Rule Issued Final Rule

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($) Navigant EERE Issued Final Rule Navigant
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers

A-34

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Navigant

Issued Final Rule

(Energy Conservation Program: Energy 

Conservation Standards for Commercial

Packaged Boilers)

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%)

ASHRAE 

Standard 90.1-

2004

Average Life (yrs) EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

RS Means 

2011 / 

Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($) EERE
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Centrifugal Chillers

A-35

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 90.1 Typical High Typical / High

Typical 

Capacity 

(tons)

IPCC/ARB/TEAP/Navigant

Navigant

Efficiency 

(kW/ton)

ASHRAE 

90.1-

2010/FEMP/

eSource/Pro

duct 

Literature

ASHRAE 

90.1-2016 

(>400 TR)

Product Lit

Progress 

Energy Data 

Sheet

COP

Average Life 

(yrs)

2007 

ASHRAE 

Applications 

Handbook

2015 ASHRAE Applications Handbook A37 

Table 4

Retail 

Equipment 

Cost ($/ton) RS 

Means/Distri

butors/Navig

ant

RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed 

Cost ($/ton)

Annual 

Maintenance 

Cost ($/ton)

Navigant/Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Reciprocating Chillers

A-36

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 90.1 Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (tons) BSRIA/DEER

Navigant

Efficiency (kW/ton) ASHRAE 90.1-

2010/DEER/ 

FEMP/Product 

Literature

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 (>150 TR)

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 (>150 TR) Product Lit

COP

Average Life (yrs) Manufacturers 2015 ASHRAE Applications Handbook A37 Table 4

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton)

RS Means/

Distributors/

Navigant

RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton) Navigant/Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Screw Chillers

A-37

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 90.1 Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (tons) Navigant

Navigant

Efficiency (kW/ton)

Navigant ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 (>150 TR)

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 (>150 TR) Product Lit

COP

Average Life (yrs) Manufacturers FacilitiesNet 

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton)

RS Means 

2013/Distributor

s/Navigant

RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton) Navigant/Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Scroll Chillers

A-38

SOURCE

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base ASHRAE 90.1 Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (tons) Navigant/Manufacturers

Navigant

Efficiency [full-load/IPLV] 

(kW/ton)

Navigant ASHRAE 90.1-2016 

(>150TR)

Product 

Lit/Navigant Product Lit

COP [full-load/IPLV]

Average Life (yrs) Manufacturers

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton)

Manufacturers/RS 

Means 

2013/Navigant

RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($/ton) Navigant /Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Chillers

A-39

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base: 

Absorption

Installed Base: 

Engine-Driven

ASHRAE 90.1 

absorption

CA Title 24 -

engine Absorption Engine-Driven Absorption / Engine-Driven

Typical Capacity (tons) BSRIA/Distributors

Navigant

COP [full-load]

Product Literature/Navigant

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 directfired double 

effect

CA Title 24 gas 

Engine 

standard

Product Lit

COP [IPLV]

Average Life (yrs) 2007 ASHRAE Applications 

Handbook/Distributors 2015 ASHRAE Applications Handbook A37 Table 4

Retail Equipment Cost 

($/ton)

Manufacturer/Distributors/RS 

Means 2013/GIT/Navigant RS Means 2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost 

($/ton)

Annual Maintenance 

Cost ($/ton) Navigant/Alabama Power
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners

A-40

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High 

Typical Output Capacity 

(kBtu/h) AHRI / Navigant EERE

Navigant

Efficiency (EER) Distributors / 

Navigant eCFR

EERE ENERGY STAR EERE

Part Load Efficiency (IEER) EERE N/A

Average Life (yrs) EERE 

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Distributors / 

Navigant / DEER, 

2008

EERE

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) EERE
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Driven Rooftop Air Conditioners/Heat Pumps

A-41

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (tons)

Product Literature/Navigant

Navigant

Heating COP

Cooling COP

Average Life (yrs) Manufacturer/RS Means 2017/Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton) Abuheiba 2017/Manufacturer/RS Means 

2017/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

Manufacturer/RS Means 2017/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps

A-42

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) EERE

Navigant

Efficiency (EER)

ASHRAE 

Standard 

90.1-2004 / 

Navigant

eCFR EERE / 

Navigant

ENERGY 

STAR

EERE / 

Navigant

Part Load Efficiency EERE N/A

EERE EERE

COP (Heating) EERE / 

Navigant eCFR

Average Life (yrs)

Distributors / 

RS Means 

2010 / DEER 

/ Navigant

EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($)

Total Installed Cost ($)

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Ground Source Heat Pumps

A-43

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical Mid High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) US DOE/EIA EERE

Navigant

COP (Heating)

Navigant ASHRAE 

90.1-2016 AHRI Database

EER (Cooling)

Average Life (yrs) Navigant / EERE

Navigant / EERE

Retail Equipment Cost ($) Distributors/Navigant

Total Installed Cost ($) US DOD/IGSHPA/MA 

DOER/CEFIA/ASHRAE

Annual Maintenance Cost 

($)

Geothermal Heat Pump 

Consortium, Inc. (US 

DOE Contract DE-FG07-

95ID13347)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

A-44

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Storage Capacity 

(gal)

Arthur D. 

Little / 

Distributors 

/ AHRI CCMS

Navigant

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) AHRI

Thermal Efficiency (%)

EERE / 

ASHRAE 

Standard 

90.1-2004 / 

Navigant

CFR CCMS ENERGY 

STAR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2001

EERE 2016 Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$) Distributors 

/ CEC / 

Navigant Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) EERE/Distributors
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

A-45

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current Standard Typical Typical 

Typical Storage Capacity (gal) Navigant / Product 

Literature 

EERE 2016

Navigant

Typical Input Capacity (kW) Product Literature 

Thermal Efficiency (%) Navigant

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2016

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$) EERE 2016 /Navigant EERE 2016

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Heat Pump Storage Water Heaters

A-46

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Storage Capacity (gal)

Distributors/Navigant

Navigant

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 

Coefficient of Performance (COP) Distributors

Average Life (yrs) EERE/Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)

RS Means Online2017

Total Installed Cost (2017$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$) Navigant

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

A-47

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Storage Capacity 

(gal)

AHRI / Navigant CCMS/Navigant

Navigant

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 

Thermal Efficiency (%) Navigant CFR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2001

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Distributors / Navigant 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Booster Water Heaters

A-48

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (gal)

Product 

Literature / 

Navigant

Product 

Literature

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%)

Product Literature

Average Life (yrs)

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Distributors/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Booster Water Heaters

A-49

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) Distributors/Navigant

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%)

Product 

Literature/ 

Navigant

CFR Product Literature/ Navigant

Average Life (yrs) Product Literature/Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Distributors/Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$)

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

A-50

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENEGRY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity 

(kBtu/h) CCMS

Navigant

Thermal Efficiency (%) Navigant CCMS ENERGY 

STAR CCMS

Average Life (yrs) EERE 2016

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2017$)

EERE 2016 

/Navigant EERE 2016 Total Installed Cost 

(2017$)

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2017$)
Review Draft

Data Sources » Commercial Solar Water Heaters

A-51

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical / ENERGY STAR Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.) SRCC / Navigant

Navigant

Overall Efficiency (Solar Fraction) DOE / SRCC / Navigant

Solar Energy Factor SRCC / Navigant

Average Life (yrs) DOE / Navigant

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) RS Means Online 2017

Total Installed Cost (2017$) RS Means Online 2017

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

A-52

Data Sources » Commercial Natural Gas Ranges, Griddles, and Ovens

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High

Total Input Capacity (kBtu) Distributors

Navigant

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency 

(%)

Navigant FSTC

ENERGY STAR

FSTC

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%)

N/A Range Burner - Cooking Energy 

Efficiency (%)

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(Btu/h/ft2) ENERGY STAR

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) FEMP

Range - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) FSTC - FSTC

Average Life (yrs) FSTC

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$)** Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) FSTC / Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)* FSTC

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

A-53

Data Sources » Commercial Electric Ranges, Griddles, and Ovens

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High

Total Input Capacity (kW) Distributors

Navigant

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) Navigant FSTC ENERGY STAR FSTC

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) Navigant FSTC - FSTC

Range Top - Cooking Energy Efficiency 

(%) Navigant FSTC - FSTC

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(W/ft2

) Navigant FSTC ENERGY STAR FSTC

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (kW) Navigant FSTC ENERGY STAR FSTC

Range Top - Idle Energy Rate (kW) N/A

Average Life (yrs) FSTC

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2017$) FSTC / Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost (2017$)* FSTC

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

A-54

Data Sources » Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets

SOURCES

2012 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR High Typical / High

Interior Volume (ft3

) FEMP

Navigant

Maximum Idle Energy Rate (W) CEE / 

Navigant FEMP

Average Life (yrs) FEMP

Retail Equipment Cost (2017$) Distributors / ENERGY STAR Savings Calculator / Navigant

Total Installed Cost (2017$) Navigant

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2017$) FSTC

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

197

Appendix B

References

Navigant Consulting, Inc.

1200 19 St. NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

(202) 973-2400

www.navigantconsulting.com

B-1

Return to Table of Contents
Review Draft

B-2

• Abuheibaa, et. al. (2017). Challenges and opportunities of Gas Engine Heat Pumps – Two Case 

Studies. Retrieved September 2017 from: http://hpc2017.org/wpcontent/uploads/2017/05/P.4.7.4-Challenges-and-Opportunities-of-Gas-Engine-DrivenHeat-Pumps-Two-Case-Studies.pdf

• ACEEE. (2007). Top Rated Energy-Efficient Appliances. American Council for an EnergyEfficient Economy.

• AHAM. (n.d.). Directory of Certified Products. Retrieved September 2010 from: 

http://www.ahamdir.com/dirsvc/aham.nsf/fraRAC?OpenFrameset&pgm=Room%20Air%2

0Conditioners

• AHAM. (2014). Trends in Energy Efficiency.

• AHRI. (n.d.). Directory of Certified Product Performance. Retrieved September 2010, June 

2013, and September/November 2017 from: 

http://www.ahridirectory.org/ahridirectory/pages/home.aspx

• Alabama Power (n.d.). Chillers: Compare Maintenance Costs. Retrieved September 2017 

from: http://www.alabamapower.com/business/ways-to-save/chillers-space-coolingoptions/compare-maintenance-costs.html

References
Review Draft

B-3

• Appliance Design Magazine. (n.d.) BNP Media.

— Page 7. March 2013 Issue.

— Page 5. March 2014 Issue.

— Page 6. March 2015 Issue.

— Page 5. March 2017 Issue. 

• Appliance Magazine. (2012). “The U.S. Appliance Industry: Market Value, Life Expectancy 

& Replacement Picture 2012.” UBM Canon.

• Appliance Magazine. (n.d.).

— “U.S. Appliance Industry Statistical Review: 2000 to YTD 2010.” Canon Data Products 

Group. July 2010.

— “U.S. Appliance Shipment Statistics Monthly: January 2011.” Canon Data Products 

Group. January 2011.

— “2011 Full-Year Appliance Industry Shipment Statistics.” UBM Canon. March 2012.

— “2012 Full-Year Appliance Industry Shipment Statistics and Year-In-Review.” UBM 

Canon. March 2013.

• ASHRAE. (2004). ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2004. ASHRAE, Inc.

• ASHRAE. (2007). ANSI/ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-2007. ASHRAE, Inc.

• ASHRAE. (2015). 2015 ASHRAE Handbook – HVAC Applications. ASHRAE Inc.

References
Review Draft

B-4

• Building Services Research and Information Association & Ducker Research Company. (1997, 

1998). U.S. Market for Central Plant Air Conditioning; Market for Ducted Warm Air Central 

Heating; U.S. Market for Hydronic Heating and Burners; U.S. Water Heating Market; U.S. Unitary 

and Close Control Air Conditioning.

• California Air Resources Board (CARB). (2009). Inventory of Direct and Indirect GHG Emissions 

from Stationary Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Sources, with Special Emphasis on Retail Food 

Refrigeration and Unitary Air Conditioning

• CCMS. (n.d.). U.S. DOE Compliance Certification Database. Retrieved June 2013, September and 

November 2017 from: http://www.regulations.doe.gov/certification-data/

• CEC. (n.d.). California Energy Commission Appliance Efficiency Database. Retrieved 2004, 

September 2010, and June 2013 from: 

http://www.appliances.energy.ca.gov/AdvancedSearch.aspx

• CEE. (2009). “Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets Program Guide.” Consortium for 

Energy Efficiency. April 2009.

• CFR. (n.d.). National energy conservation standards authorized under the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA) and codified in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR).

• DEER. (2008, June). Database for Energy Efficiency Resources. Retrieved June 2013, from 

California Energy Commission: www.energy.ca.gov/deer

• DOE. (2012, June). Energy Saver: Geothermal Heat Pumps. Retrieved June 2013, from 

ENERGY.GOV: http://energy.gov/energysaver/articles/geothermal-heat-pumps

References
Review Draft

B-5

• DOE. (n.d.). Estimating the Cost and Energy Efficiency of a Solar Water Heater. Retrieved 

December 2017 from https://energy.gov/energysaver/estimating-cost-and-energy-efficiencysolar-water-heater

• DOE. (n.d.). Solar Water Heaters. Retrieved December 2017 from 

https://energy.gov/energysaver/solar-water-heaters 

• Distributors. (n.d.). Navigant online research and discussions with distributors (e.g., 

Grainger, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Sears, and others).

• EERE. (2001). Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Central Air Conditioners and 

Heat Pumps Energy Conservation Standards; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2001). Energy Efficiency Program for Commercial and Industrial Equipment; Efficiency 

Standards for Commercial Heating, Air Conditioning and Water Heating Equipment; Final rule.

• EERE. (2004). Joint Stakeholders Comments on Standards for Commercial Package Air Conditioners 

and Heat Pumps.

• EERE. (2006). Appliance Standards Framework, Rulemaking Framework for Residential Water 

Heaters, Direct Heating Equipment and Pool Heaters.

• EERE. (2006). Buildings Energy Data Book.

• EERE. (2007). Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Energy Conservation 

Standards for Residential Furnaces and Boilers; Final Rule.

References
Review Draft

B-6

• EERE. (2009). Commercial Heating, Air Conditioning and Water Heating Equipment (i.e. ASHRAE 

Equipment).

• EERE. (2009). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Certain Consumer 

Products (Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Microwave Ovens, and Electric and Gas Kitchen Ranges and 

Ovens) and for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment (Commercial Clothes Washers); Final 

Rule.

• EERE. (2009). Ground-Source Heat Pumps: Overview of Market Status, Barriers to Adoption, and 

Options for Overcoming Barriers.

• EERE. (2009). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Certain Consumer 

Products and for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2009). Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy 

Conservation Standards and Test Procedures for Commercial Heating, Air-Conditioning, and WaterHeating Equipment; Proposed Rule.

• EERE. (2010). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Residential Central Air 

Conditioners and Heat Pumps.

• EERE. (2010). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water 

Heaters, Direct Heating Equipment, and Pool Heaters; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2011). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential 

Clothes Dryers and Room Air Conditioners; Direct Final Rule.

References
Review Draft

B-7

• EERE. (2011). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential 

Furnaces and Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps; Direct Final Rule.

• EERE. (2011). Energy Conservation Program: Standards for Residential Refrigerators, RefrigeratorFreezers, and Freezers; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2011). Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Commercial And 

Industrial Equipment: Efficiency Standards for Commercial Heating, Air-Conditioning, and WaterHeating Equipment.

• EERE. (2012). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential 

Clothes Washers; Direct Final Rule.

• EERE. (2012). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential 

Dishwashers; Direct Final Rule.

• EERE. (2015). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer 

Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment. 

• EERE. (2015). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Small, Large, 

and Very Large Commercial Package Air Conditioners.

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy 

Conservation Standards for Small, Large, and Very Large Air-Cooled Commercial Package Air 

Conditioning and Heating Equipment and Commercial Warm Air Furnaces; Direct final rule and 

Technical Support Document.

References
Review Draft

B-8

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Portable Air 

Conditioners.

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Boilers

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program: Test Procedures for Portable Air Conditioners; Final 

Rule.

• EERE. (2016). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer 

Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Commercial Packaged Boilers

• EERE. (2016). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer 

Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Portable Air Conditioners.

• EERE. (2016). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Residential 

Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps.

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products and Certain Commercial and 

Industrial Equipment: Test Procedures for Consumer and Commercial Water Heaters; Final rule

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products; 

Supplemental Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy 

Conservation Standards for Commercial Water Heating Equipment: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.

References
Review Draft

• EERE. (2016). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for 

Consumer Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Residential Dishwashers.

• ENERGY STAR Savings Calculator (n.d.). “Savings Calculator for ENERGY STAR 

Qualified Commercial Kitchen Equipment.” U.S. EPA and DOE. Retrieved June 2013 

from http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=bulk_purchasing.bus_purchasing

• ENERGY STAR. (n.d.). Retrieved June 2013 and September 2017, from ENERGY STAR 

Products: http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=products.pr_find_es_products

• EPA. (2017, August) USEPA Certified Wood Heater List August 2017. 

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-08/usepa-certified-wood-heaterlist.xlsx

• FacilitiesNet. (2009). Properly Diagnosing Chiller Life Cycles. Retrieved September 2017 

from: http://www.facilitiesnet.com/hvac/article/Properly-Diagnosing-Chiller-LifeCycles--10645

• FEMP. (2012). “Federal Energy Management Program: Covered Product Category: Hot 

Food Holding Cabinets.” Retrieved June 2013 from: 

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/technologies/printable_versions/eep_hot_food.html

B-9

References
Review Draft

B-10

• FEMP. (2016, August). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Air-Cooled Chillers. Retrieved September 

2017, from FEMP Technologies: 

https://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/technologies/eep_ac_chillers.html

• FEMP. (2016, August). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Water-Cooled Electric Chillers. Retrieved 

September 2017, from FEMP Technologies: https://energy.gov/eere/femp/purchasing-energyefficient-water-cooled-electric-chillers

• FEMP. (2016, August). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Hot Food Holding Cabinets. Retrieved 

December 2017, from FEMP Technologies: https://energy.gov/eere/femp/purchasing-energyefficient-hot-food-holding-cabinets

• FSTC. (2002). Food Service Technology Center. Commercial Cooking Appliance Technology 

Assessment. Fisher Nickel, Inc.

• FSTC. (2013). Personal communication with Yung Lin of the Food Service Technology 

Center. June 21, 2013.

• FSTC. (n.d.). Appliance Reports, Rangetop Performance Reports. Retrieved December 2017, from: 

https://fishnick.com/publications/appliancereports/rangetops/

• FSTC. (n.d.). Appliance Reports, Griddle Performance Reports. Retrieved December 2017, from: 

https://fishnick.com/publications/appliancereports/griddles/

• GeoExchange. GeoExchange Heating and Cooling Systems: Fascinating Facts.

• GHPC. (n.d.). Geothermal Heat Pump Consortium. Retrieved 2007 from www.geoexchange.org

References
Review Draft

• IGSPHA. (n.d.). International Ground Source Heat Pump Association. Retrieved 2007 from 

www.igshpa.okstate.edu

• International Ground Source Heat Pump Association (IGSHPA) Conference 

Proceedings. (2012, October). Measuring the Costs & Benefits of Nationwide Geothermal 

Heat Pump (GHP) Deployment – A Progress Report. Retrieved June 2013, from IGSHPA: 

http://www.igshpa.okstate.edu/membership/members_only/proceedings/2012/10-3-

2012-0130-Session-C-Measuring-the-Costs-&-Benefits-of-Nationwide-Geothermal-HeatPump-(GHP)-Deployment-A-Progress-Report.pdf

• LBNL. (2003). Commercial Unitary Air Conditioning and Heat Pumps - Life Cycle Cost 

Analysis: Inputs and Results. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

• Manufacturers. (n.d.). Navigant discussions with product manufacturers.

• Max Neubauer, A. d. (2009). Ka-BOOM! The Power of Appliance Standards. ACEEE, ASAP.

• Navien America Inc. (n.d.). Navien Condensing 98%. Retrieved September 2010 from 

http://www.navienamerica.com/PDS/ftp/NavienCondensingTankless/DownLoad_Broc

hure_Manual/NavienCodensing98_Brochure.pdf

• Navigant Consulting, Inc. (n.d.). In-House Expertise.

• Product Literature. (n.d.). Literature from manufacturers and experts on specific 

products. 

B-11

References
Review Draft

• Progress Energy. (n.d.). Energy Savers: Chiller Optimization and Energy-Efficient Chillers. 

Retrieved September 2017 from: https://www.progressenergy.com/assets/www/docs/business/chiller-fact-sheet-052005.pdf

• Propane Education and Research Council (PERC). (2007). Assessment of Propane Fired 

Gas Air Conditioning, Heat Pumping and Dehumidification Technologies, Products, Markets 

and Economics

• RS Means Mechanical Cost Data. (2007). Means Construction Information Network.

• RS Means Mechanical Cost Data. (2010). Means Construction Information Network.

• RS Means Mechanical Cost Data. (2011). Means Construction Information Network.

• RS Means Mechanical Cost Data. (2013). Means Construction Information Network.

• RS Means Online Mechanical Cost Data. (2017). Means Construction Information 

Network.

• Solar Rating and Certification Corporation (SRCC). (n.d.) OG-100 System 

Certifications listing. Retrieved December 2017 from https://secure.solarrating.org/Certification/Ratings/RatingsSummaryPage.aspx?type=2

• Technology Cost and Performance File for Commercial Model for AEO2010. (2009). 

(E. Boedecker, Compiler)

B-12

References
January 2023

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies 4

APPENDIX C
Final

EIA - Technology Forecast Updates –

Residential and Commercial Building 

Technologies – Reference Case

Presented to:

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Prepared by: 

Guidehouse

1200 19th Street, NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

And

Leidos

11951 Freedom Drive

Reston, VA 20190

October 14, 2022
Final

DISCLAIMER

This presentation was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither 

the United States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, 

subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or 

responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, 

or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, 

process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its 

endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency, contractor or subcontractor 

thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States 

Government or any agency thereof. 

October 2022
Final Table of Contents

Page

Objective

4

Methodology

5

Definitions

6

Calculations

7

Market Transformation

8

Residential Lighting

9

General Service Lamps 10

Reflector Lamps 19 4-foot Linear 2-lamp Lighting Systems 27

Outdoor Lamps 34

Commercial Lighting 45

General Service Lamps 46

Reflector Lamps 52 4-Foot Linear 2 Lamp Lighting Systems 57 8-Foot Linear 2 Lamp Lighting Systems 67

Low Bay Lighting Systems 74

High Bay Lighting Systems 80

Page

Commercial Refrigeration 87

Compressor Rack Systems 88

Condensers 90

Supermarket Display Cases 92

Reach-In Refrigerators 95

Reach-In Freezers 98

Walk-In Refrigerators 101

Walk-In Freezers 105

Ice Machines 109

Beverage Merchandisers 113

Refrigerated Vending Machines 116

Commercial Ventilation 119

Constant Air Volume 120

Variable Air Volume 122

Fan Coil Units 124

Appendix A: Data Sources

A-1

Appendix B: References

B-1
Final Objective

The objective of this study is to develop baseline and projected performance and cost characteristics for residential and 

commercial end-use equipment.

• Examine 2012 and 2018 (commercial) and 2015 and 2020 (residential) baselines, as well as this year’s baseline (2022).

— Review literature, standards, installed base, contractor, and manufacturer information.

— Provide a relative comparison and characterization of the cost and efficiency of a generic product.

• Forecast technology improvements that are projected to be available through 2050.

— Review trends in standards, product enhancements, and research and development (R&D).

— Project impact of product improvements and technology enhancement.

The performance and cost characterization of end-use equipment developed in this study will assist EIA in projecting 

national primary energy consumption.

4
Final

5

Input from industry stakeholders, including government, R&D organizations, and manufacturers, was used to 

project product enhancements concerning equipment performance and cost attributes.

• Technology forecasting involves many uncertainties.

• Technology developments affect performance and cost forecasts.

• Varied sources ensure a balanced view of technology progress and the probable timing of commercial 

availability.

Methodology
Final Definitions

The following tables represent the current and projected efficiencies for residential and commercial building equipment ranging from the installed base in 2012 

and 2018 (for commercial products) and 2015 and 2020 (for residential) to the highest efficiency equipment that is expected to be commercially available by 2050, 

assuming incremental adoption. Below are definitions for the terms used in characterizing the status of each technology.

— Installed Stock Average: the installed and in use equipment for that year. Represents the installed stock of equipment, but does not represent sales.

— Current Standard: the minimum efficiency (or maximum energy use) required (allowed) by current U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) standards, when 

applicable. For lighting, if no product exists at the standard efficiency level, a hypothetical wattage and lumen output is given for the standard’s 

efficiency level.

— ENERGY STAR® : the minimum efficiency required (or maximum energy use allowed) to meet the ENERGY STAR® criteria, when applicable. Presented 

performance data represents certified products just meeting current ENERGY STAR specifications. For lighting, if no products exist at the ENERGY 

STAR efficiency level, a hypothetical wattage and lumen output is given for the ENERGY STAR efficiency level. 

— Low: The minimum efficiency product or product mix available on the market. This rating typically reflects minimal compliance with DOE standards. 

— Typical: the average, or typical, product being sold in the particular timeframe.

— High: the product with the highest efficiency available in the particular timeframe.

— Lumens (lm): the unit for luminous flux used in the SI unit system. This unit is used to indicate a light source’s light output. All reported lumens are 

initial lumens. 1 kilolumen (klm) = 1,000 lumens.

— Correlated Color Temperature (CCT): a specification of the color appearance of the light emitted by a lamp. Note: CCT is not a performance metric.

— Color Rendering Index (CRI): a scale from 0 to 100 percent indicating how accurate a given light source is at rendering color when compared to a 

reference light source. The higher the CRI, the better the color rendering ability.

— British thermal unit (Btu): a measure of the heat content of fuels or energy sources. It is the quantity of heat required to raise the temperature of one 

pound of liquid water by 1°F at the temperature that water has its greatest density (approximately 39 °F ). 1 kBtu = 1,000 Btu.

— Cubic Feet per Minute (CFM): a measure of airflow volume equal to the number of cubic feet of air flowing through a two-dimensional plane in one 

minute. 

— Not Available (N/A): data is not available where indicated. 

6
Final Calculations

The following metrics are commonly referred to throughout the tables to follow. Below are the calculations for each metric

— Lighting

 System Wattage = (Lamp Wattage * Ballast Factor) / Ballast Efficiency

 System Lumens = Lamp Lumens * Ballast Factor

 Lamp Efficacy = Lamp Lumens / Lamp Wattage

 System Efficacy = System Lumens / System Wattage

 Lamp Cost ($/klm) = Lamp Cost / (Lamp Lumens / 1,000)

 Total Equipment Cost = Lamp Cost + Fixture (including ballast) Cost

 System Cost ($/klm) = Total Equipment Cost / (System Lumens / 1,000). l/b/fdenotes that the cost includes the luminaire, the ballast, and the fixture. 

 Total Installed Cost = Total Equipment Cost + Labor Installation Cost

 Ballast Luminous Efficiency (BLE) = A/(1+B*Avg Total Lamp Arc Power^(-C)) where A, B, and C are pre-defined constants by DOE Energy Conservation Standards for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts.

— Commercial Refrigeration

 Nominal Capacity over Average Input (Btu in / Btu out) = (Cooling or Heat Rejection Capacity)*24*365/(Annual Energy Consumption * 3,412)

 Total Installed Cost = Retail Equipment Cost + Labor Installation Cost

 Total Installed Cost ($/kBtu/hour) = Total Installed Cost*1,000 / (Cooling or Heat Rejection Capacity). h used as an abbreviation for hour throughout 

 Annual Maintenance Cost ($/kBtu/h) = Annual Maintenance Cost * 1,000 / (Cooling or Heat Rejection Capacity)

— Ventilation

 CFM out / Btu in / h = System Airflow / (System Fan Power * 3,412)

 Total Installed Cost ($/1,000 CFM) = Total Installed Cost * 1,000 / System Airflow

 Annual Maintenance Cost ($/1,000 CFM) = Annual Maintenance Cost * 1,000 / System Fan Power

7
Final Market Transformation

The market for the reviewed products has changed since this analysis was performed in 2015. These changes are noted 

and reflected in the efficiency and cost characteristics.

• DOE issued federal minimum efficiency standards that have gone into effect for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

(2012), Incandescent Reflector Lamps (2012), and Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts (2019). 

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lumens per watt (lm/W) backstop requirement 

for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (10 CFR 430, 87 FR 

27439). This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product 

classes, such as reflector lamps. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail 

and distribution in July 2023.

• DOE published a Final Rule updating energy conservation standards for Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines at 

the end of 2015, effective in 2018. DOE also issued federal minimum efficiency standards that have or will soon go into 

effect for Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines (2012), Automatic Commercial Ice Makers (2018), Walk-In Coolers 

and Freezers (2017), and Commercial Refrigeration Equipment (2017). 

8
Final

Residential Lighting

9
Final

10

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Lamps

The residential general service lamps characterized in this report are a 60-watt and a 75-watt medium screw-based (E26) A-type incandescent lamp and their halogen, CFL, and LED equivalents. 

A standard 60-watt incandescent lamp produces approximately 800 – 850 lumens. A standard 75-watt incandescent lamp produces approximately 1,100 lumens. 

Performance: 

• A majority of residential lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 5,000K 

(daylight), and 6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is advised to chose a 

product with a similar CCT value in order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100. However, CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. 

CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination. High CRI products are preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. Higher 

CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical lamp prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and 

features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Fixture prices and installation costs are not included for the residential sector. Labor costs are assumed to be negligible because homeowners likely replaces lamps themselves as they burn 

out. Therefore, total installed cost is the price of a lamp, and annual maintenance costs are the cost of replacing the lamps, which is a function of lamp life, lamp price, and the annual 

operating hours. 

• Disposal costs are not characterized for residential lighting in this analysis. In residential cases, disposal is done by the occupant. Lamp and product burnout are assumed to result in no 

"added" cost aside from the work performed to install the replacement. 

Legislation:

• The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) established standards for 60-watt general service lamps, effective in 2014, and 75-watt lamps, effective in 2013. These 

standards cannot be achieved by incandescent bulbs, but can be by halogen, CFL, and LED technologies. 

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps. These standards can not be 

achieved by traditional incandescent or halogen technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry, they will likely not be met. It is currently assumed 

that industry will increase its investment in LED technology at the expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in 

January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service omnidirectional lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 70 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 80 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90. 

Additionally, the lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).
Final

11

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Lamps

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and price for 

products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent, 

halogen, and fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050: 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements 

as of 2022.

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% Improvements in efficacy can be made by using more rare-earth phosphors in compact fluorescent 

lamps. 
Final

12

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Incandescent Lamps (60 W)

1. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) prescribes standards for 60 watt incandescent lamps as of January 1, 2014. Despite the phase out of incandescent 

lamps, these products remain in the installed stock.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. These 

standards cannot be met with incandescent technologies. 

DATA

20151 20201 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 60.0 60.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 850 850 N/A N/A N/A N/A 850 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 14.2 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 511 511 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $0.30 $0.30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $0.34 $0.34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $0.30 $0.30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.15 $0.15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $0.35 $0.35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.18 $0.18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

13

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Incandescent Lamps (75 W)

1. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) prescribes standards for 75 watt incandescent lamps as of January 1, 2013. Despite the phase out of incandescent 

lamps, these products remain in the installed stock.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. These standards 

cannot be met with incandescent technologies. 

DATA

20151 20201 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 75.0 75.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 1,170 1,170 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 15.6 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 511 511 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $0.44 $0.44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $0.38 $0.38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $0.44 $0.44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.30 $0.30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $0.38 $0.38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.26 $0.26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

14

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Halogen Lamps (60 W Incandescent Equivalent)

1. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) prescribes standards for 60 watt incandescent lamps as of January 1, 2014. Starting in 2014, 60 watt incandescent 

lamps were replaced by halogen lamps.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. These standards 

cannot be met with existing halogen lamp technologies. 

DATA

20151 20201 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 43.1 43.1 N/A 43.0 N/A N/A 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 750 750 N/A 750 N/A N/A 750 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 17.4 17.4 N/A 17.4 N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,850 2,850 N/A 2,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 1.0 1.0 N/A 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 621 621 N/A 621 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $2.36 $4.90 N/A $5.92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $3.15 $6.54 N/A $7.89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $2.36 $4.90 N/A $5.92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1.47 $3.04 N/A $3.68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $3.15 $6.54 N/A $7.89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $1.95 $4.06 N/A $4.90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

15

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Halogen Lamps (75 W Incandescent Equivalent)

1. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 prescribes standards for current 75 watt incandescent lamps as of January 1, 2013. Starting in 2013, 75 watt incandescent lamps 

were replaced by halogen lamps.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. These standards 

cannot be met with existing halogen lamp technologies. 

DATA

20151 20201 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 53.0 53.0 N/A 53.0 N/A N/A 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 1,050 936 N/A 890 N/A N/A 890 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 19.8 17.7 N/A 16.8 N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,850 2,950 N/A 2,950 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 1.0 1.0 N/A 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 621 621 N/A 621 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $2.37 $3.58 N/A $4.06 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $2.26 $3.82 N/A $4.56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $2.37 $3.58 N/A $4.06 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1.47 $2.22 N/A $2.52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $2.26 $3.82 N/A $4.56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $1.40 $2.37 N/A $2.83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

16

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Compact Fluorescent Lamps (60 W Incandescent Equivalent)

1. 2020 data back calculated based on 2022 data and the following assumptions: Efficacy +0.5%/y, Cost -0.5%/y (NCI, 2019)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. These standards 

can be met with existing CFL products. 

3. Year-to-year price and performance assumptions for incumbent technologies from 2022 to 2050: Efficacy +0.5%/y, Cost -0.5%/y (NCI, 2019)

4. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

DATA

20151 20201 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR4 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 13.0 13.1 14.0 13.0 13.0 13.8 20.0 12.5 12.5 11.9 11.9 11.3 11.3

Lamp Lumens 825 900 900 900 925 800 900 900 925 900 925 900 925

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 3

63.5 68.5 64.3 69.2 71.2 80.0 45.0 72.0 74.1 75.7 77.8 79.6 81.8

CRI 82 82 82 82 82 80 N/A 82 82 82 82 82 82

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 12.0 10.0 N/A 10.0 12.0 10.0 12.0 10.0 12.0

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 767 767 767 767 767 N/A N/A 767 767 767 767 767 767

Lamp Price (2022$) $2.55 $5.40 $1.50 $5.35 $4.63 N/A N/A $5.14 $4.45 $4.89 $4.23 $4.65 $4.02

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm)3

$3.10 $6.00 $1.67 $5.94 $5.01 N/A N/A $5.71 $4.81 $5.43 $4.57 $5.17 $4.35 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $2.55 $5.40 $1.50 $5.35 $4.63 N/A N/A $5.14 $4.45 $4.89 $4.23 $4.65 $4.02 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.20 $0.41 $0.12 $0.41 $0.30 N/A N/A $0.39 $0.28 $0.37 $0.27 $0.36 $0.26 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $3.09 $6.00 $1.67 $5.94 $5.01 N/A N/A $5.71 $4.81 $5.43 $4.57 $5.17 $4.35 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.24 $0.46 $0.13 $0.46 $0.32 N/A N/A $0.44 $0.31 $0.42 $0.29 $0.40 $0.28 
Final

17

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service LED Lamps (60 W Incandescent Equivalent)

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 8.7 9.2 10.0 8.9 8.0 10.0 17.8 7.3 6.6 5.8 5.2 5.0 4.5

Lamp Lumens 656 803 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 75.5 87.1 80.0 90.0 100.0 80.0 45.0 108.9 120.9 138.6 154.0 160.7 178.6

CRI 81 85 80 81 90 80 N/A 81 90 81 90 81 90

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 25 21 15 14 18 15.0 N/A 14 18 14 18 14 18

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 657 657 657 657 657 657 N/A 657 657 657 657 657 657

Lamp Price (2022$) $13.53 $4.56 $6.20 $3.92 $5.32 $6.20 N/A $3.23 $4.39 $2.84 $3.86 $2.46 $3.33

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $20.63 $5.68 $7.75 $4.90 $6.65 $7.75 N/A $4.04 $5.49 $3.56 $4.83 $3.07 $4.17 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $13.53 $4.56 $6.20 $3.92 $5.32 $6.20 N/A $3.23 $4.39 $2.84 $3.86 $2.46 $3.33 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.35 $0.15 $0.27 $0.18 $0.19 $0.27 N/A $0.15 $0.16 $0.13 $0.14 $0.11 $0.12 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $20.63 $5.68 $7.75 $4.90 $6.65 $7.75 N/A $4.04 $5.49 $3.56 $4.83 $3.07 $4.17 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.54 $0.18 $0.34 $0.22 $0.24 $0.34 N/A $0.18 $0.20 $0.16 $0.17 $0.14 $0.15 

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED 

lighting products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.
Final

18

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Filament-LED Lamps (60 W Incandescent Equivalent)

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED 

lighting products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 9.7 7.1 5.5 6.9 8.0 13.8 17.8 7.0 6.6 5.5 5.2 4.7 4.5

Lamp Lumens 457 650 450 650 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 47.1 91.7 81.8 94.8 100.0 80.0 45.0 114.6 120.9 146.0 154.0 169.3 178.6

CRI 82 84 90 84 80 80 N/A 81 90 81 90 81 90

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 23 21 15 15 15 15 N/A 15 15 15 15 15 15

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 657 657 657 657 657 N/A N/A 657 657 657 657 657 657

Lamp Price (2022$) $15.17 $6.88 $6.25 $5.91 $7.75 N/A N/A $4.87 $6.39 $4.29 $5.62 $3.70 $4.86

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $33.20 $10.58 $13.89 $9.09 $9.69 N/A N/A $6.09 $7.99 $5.36 $7.03 $4.63 $6.07 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $15.17 $6.88 $6.25 $5.91 $7.75 N/A N/A $4.87 $6.39 $4.29 $5.62 $3.70 $4.86 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.43 $0.21 $0.27 $0.26 $0.34 N/A N/A $0.21 $0.28 $0.19 $0.25 $0.16 $0.21 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $33.20 $10.58 $13.89 $9.09 $9.69 N/A N/A $6.09 $7.99 $5.36 $7.03 $4.63 $6.07 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.93 $0.33 $0.61 $0.40 $0.42 N/A N/A $0.27 $0.35 $0.23 $0.31 $0.20 $0.27 
Final

19

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector Lamps

The residential reflector lamps characterized in this report are directional lamps that emit approximately 550 – 850 lumens (except for LED PAR38s which have outputs up to 1,700 

lumens). Multiple baseline reflector lamps were analyzed, including 65W Incandescent BR30, Halogen PAR30, Halogen Infrared Reflector (HIR) PAR30, CFL BR30, LED BR30, and 

LED PAR38. 

Performance: 

• A majority of residential lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 

5,000K (daylight), and 6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is 

advised to chose a product with a similar CCT value in order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100, but for CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average 

around 80. CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination, with high CRI products being preferable for retail and display applications where improved color 

quality is of real value. Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these very specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. 

• Fixture prices and installation costs are not included for the residential sector. Labor costs are assumed to be negligible because homeowners likely replaces lamps themselves as 

they burn out. Therefore, total installed cost is the price of a lamp, and annual maintenance costs are the cost of replacing the lamps, which is a function of lamp life, lamp price, 

and the annual operating hours. 

• Disposal costs are not characterized for residential lighting in this analysis. In residential cases, disposal is done by the occupant. Lamp and product burnout are assumed to result 

in no "added" cost aside from the work performed to install the replacement. 

Legislation:

• EPAct92 established minimum performance standards for some reflector lamps and provided exemptions for certain specialty applications (e.g., ER/BR, vibration service, more 

than 5% neodymium oxide, impact resistant, infrared heat, colored). EPAct92 effectively phased-out R-shaped tungsten filament incandescent reflector lamps at certain wattages 

and bulb diameters, replacing them with more efficient and cost effective tungsten-halogen parabolic aluminized reflector (PAR) lamps. EISA 2007 took away certain exemptions 

from EPACT 1992, requiring certain previously exempted lamps to meet EPAct92 minimum performance standards by January 1, 2008. The 65W BR30, a large majority of the 

incandescent reflector lamp market, was still exempted until 2022. 

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps. These standards 

can not be achieved by traditional incandescent or halogen technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry, they will likely not be met. It 

is currently assumed that industry will increase its investment in LED technology at the expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for 

manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.
Final

20

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector Lamps

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service, reflector lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 61 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 70 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90, 

respectively. Additionally, the lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and price for 

products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements 

as of 2022.

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% In addition to higher efficiency reflector coatings, improvements in efficacy can be made by using 

more rare-earth phosphors in compact fluorescent lamps. Lifetime improvements can be made by 

improving the compact fluorescent lamp electrodes.
Final

21

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector Lamps (65W BR30 Incandescent)

1. Incandescent BR30 lamps were previously exempted from DOE Incandescent Reflector Lamp standards and the EISA 2007 general service lamp definition until DOE's new final 

rule in 2022. The new definitions go into effect in 2023.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule 

also amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. These standards cannot be met with incandescent technologies. 

DATA

20151 20201 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 65.0 65.0 N/A 65.0 N/A N/A 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 637 637 N/A 602 N/A N/A 600 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 9.8 9.8 N/A 9.3 N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2.0 2.0 N/A 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 621 621 N/A 621 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $4.00 $4.00 N/A $3.70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $6.28 $6.28 N/A $6.15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $4.00 $4.00 N/A $3.70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1.24 $1.24 N/A $1.15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $6.28 $6.28 N/A $6.15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $1.95 $1.95 N/A $1.91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

22

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector Lamps (PAR30 Halogen)

1. Halogen PAR30 lamps were previously exempted from the EISA 2007 GSL definition until DOE's new final rule in 2022. The new definitions go into effect in 2023. Note: product 

offerings are very limited in 2022.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule 

also amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. These standards cannot be met with halogen technologies. 

DATA

20151 20201 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 47.1 38.8 N/A 38.8 N/A N/A 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 660 576 N/A 542 N/A N/A 542 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 14.0 14.0 N/A 14.0 N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,850 2,850 N/A 2,850 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 1.5 1.5 N/A 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 876 876 N/A 876 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $6.77 $8.13 N/A $8.67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $10.26 $14.12 N/A $16.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $6.77 $8.13 N/A $8.67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $3.96 $4.75 N/A $5.06 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $10.26 $14.12 N/A $16.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $5.99 $8.25 N/A $9.34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

23

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector Lamps (PAR30 Halogen Infrared Reflector (HIR))

DATA

20151 20201 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 38.9 45.5 N/A 48.0 N/A N/A 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 650 786 N/A 840 N/A N/A 840 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 16.7 17.3 N/A 17.5 N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,850 2,850 N/A 2,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 4.0 4.0 N/A 4.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 876 876 N/A 876 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $14.69 $25.62 N/A $29.99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $22.59 $32.60 N/A $35.70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $14.69 $25.62 N/A $29.99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $3.22 $5.61 N/A $6.26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $22.59 $32.60 N/A $35.70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $4.95 $7.14 N/A $7.45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

1. Halogen PAR30 lamps were previously exempted from the EISA 2007 GSL definition until DOE's new final rule in 2022. The new definitions go into effect in 2023. Note: product 

offerings are very limited in 2022.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule 

also amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. These standards cannot be met with halogen technologies. 
Final

24

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector Lamps (BR30 CFL)

1. 2015 and 2020 data calculated based on 2009 installed stock data and the following assumptions: Efficacy +0.5%/y, Cost -0.5%/y (NCI, 2019)

2. Virtually all manufacturers have discontinued manufacturing of CFL reflector lamps in favor of LEDs. Distributor offerings for CFL reflectors have been eliminated.

3. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule 

also amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. Although these standards can be met with CFL technology, 

manufacturers have discontinued manufacturing CFL reflector lamps in favor of LEDs.

4. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

DATA

20151 20201 20222 20233 20303 20403 20503

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR4 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 15.5 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 750 750 N/A N/A N/A N/A 750 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 48.3 49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 82 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 8.2 8.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 913 913 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $6.76 $6.59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $9.01 $8.79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $6.76 $6.59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.75 $0.71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $9.01 $8.79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $1.00 $0.95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

25

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector LED BR30

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule also 

amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. All LED lighting products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.

DATA

2015 2020 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 14.2 10.9 11.0 8.8 7.2 10.7 14.4 7.1 6.2 6.2 5.4 5.5 4.8

Lamp Lumens 706 781 800 683 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 49.8 71.5 72.7 78.6 90.3 61.0 45.0 91.7 105.4 104.9 120.5 118.0 135.6

CRI 82 85 92 87 90 80 N/A 87 90 87 90 87 90

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 25 25 25 19 18 15 N/A 19 18 19 18 19 18

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 730 730 730 730 730 N/A N/A 730 730 730 730 730 730

Lamp Price (2022$) $21.40 $15.36 $4.09 $5.01 $5.96 N/A N/A $4.11 $4.89 $3.62 $4.31 $3.14 $3.74

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $30.31 $19.66 $5.11 $7.33 $9.17 N/A N/A $6.32 $7.53 $5.57 $6.64 $4.83 $5.75

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $21.40 $15.36 $4.09 $5.01 $5.96 N/A N/A $4.11 $4.89 $3.62 $4.31 $3.14 $3.74 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.63 $0.45 $0.12 $0.20 $0.24 N/A N/A $0.16 $0.19 $0.14 $0.17 $0.12 $0.15 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $30.31 $19.66 $5.11 $7.33 $9.17 N/A N/A $6.32 $7.53 $5.57 $6.64 $4.83 $5.75

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.89 $0.57 $0.15 $0.29 $0.37 N/A N/A $0.25 $0.30 $0.22 $0.26 $0.19 $0.23 
Final

26

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector LED PAR38

DATA

2015 2020 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 19.2 15.5 17.0 16.4 17.0 22.0 29.9 14.0 14.6 12.3 12.7 10.9 11.3

Lamp Lumens 1,202 1,211 1,200 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,344 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 62.7 77.9 70.6 82.0 100.0 61.0 45.0 95.7 116.7 109.5 133.5 123.2 150.2

CRI 83 86 82 86 82 80 N/A 86 86 86 86 86 86

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,000 3,000 2,700 3,000 3,000 3,000 N/A 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 27 25 27 25 15 N/A 27 25 27 25 27 25

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 730 730 730 730 730 N/A N/A 730 730 730 730 730 730

Lamp Price (2022$) $35.23 $22.44 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $29.31 $18.54 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $35.23 $22.44 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1.07 $0.60 $0.69 $0.62 $0.46 N/A N/A $0.52 $0.38 $0.46 $0.34 $0.41 $0.31 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $29.31 $18.54 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.89 $0.49 $0.58 $0.46 $0.27 N/A N/A $0.39 $0.23 $0.35 $0.20 $0.31 $0.18 

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule also 

amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. All LED lighting products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.
Final

27

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential 4-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

This section characterizes commercial linear fixtures that house two 4ft long linear lamps and their integrated luminaire equivalents. The technologies available for this system are linear 

fluorescent and LED. 

• T5 lamps are approximately 40% narrower than T8 lamps and almost 60% narrower than T12 lamps. This narrowness allows T5 lamps to be coated with higher quality, more efficient 

phosphor blends than larger diameter lamps, resulting in a more efficacious lamp. The compact size of T5 lamps also permits greater flexibility in lighting design and construction.

• LED options for linear fixtures include replacement lamps that can fit directly into an existing fixture and fully integratedluminaires that can be used to replace existing fixtures. LED 

replacement lamps are also known as TLEDs. Type A TLEDs can be installed with existing ballasts and Type B and C TLEDs require the ballast to be disconnected. Replacement lamps are 

only sold to go into existing fixtures. If a new fixture is to be installed, a fully integrated LED luminaire is a more cost effective and efficient option. Because LED luminaires are fully 

integrated, they do not have lamp or fixture efficiency losses associated with ballasts and fixture optics. 

Performance: 

• Residential linear lamps often have a nominal CCT rating of 3,500K, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 4,000K, and 4,100K (neutral white) are also common. 5,000K (daylight) lamps are 

available as well. When replacing a light bulb, it is important to choose a product with a similar CCT value to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100, but for CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. 

CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination, with high CRI products being preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. 

Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these very specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical lamp prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and 

features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamps, which 

are sold only as a replacement for use in an existing fixture. The LED luminaire is more efficient and cost effective for new installations or fixture retrofits.

• Labor costs for lamp changes are assumed to be negligible because homeowners likely replace lamps themselves as they burn out. Therefore, annual maintenance costs are the cost of the 

replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and the annual operating hours for residential linear systems. 

• Disposal costs are not characterized for residential lighting in this analysis. In residential cases, disposal is done by theoccupant. Lamp and product burnout are assumed to result in no 

"added" cost aside from the work performed to install the replacement. 

Legislation:

• Beginning July 14, 2012 (or July 14, 2014, for T8 700-series phosphor lamps), DOE fluorescent lamp standards required a minimum efficacy of 89 lm/W. Although the amended 

performance-based standards do not explicitly prohibit T12 lamps, no T12 lamps met the standard at the time of its announcement. Since then, however, T12 lamps meeting the standard 

have entered the market.

• Beginning November 14, 2014, DOE standards required that the characterized residential ballasts have a minimum BLE = 0.993 / (1 + 0.41 * Avg Total Lamp Arc power ^ (- 0.25)). 

Residential ballasts also must have a minimum power factor of 0.5.

• California's Title 24 mandates the use of electronic ballasts with high efficacy luminaires (including fluorescent) of 13 W or higher (CEC, 2005).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover linear lamps. (ENERGY STAR, 2020)
Final

28

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential 4-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and price for 

products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050: 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

T12 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T8 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T5 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

29

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Linear Fluorescent Lamp T12

Note: Assume no labor is associated with lamp replacement in the residential sector because residents likely replace the lamps themselves. 

Assume real cost has not changed since 2009 because this product has been phased out.

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 40.0 40.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 2,860 2,860 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 70.0 82.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Lumens 3,890 5,148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Efficacy (lm/W) 56 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 78% 87% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 4,100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 694 694 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $1.10 $1.10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Price (2022$) $13.31 $13.31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $34.67 $34.67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $0.38 $0.38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (lamp, ballast, and fixture (l/b/f)) Cost 

(2022$/klm) $12.90 $12.90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $39.71 $39.71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1.84 $1.84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $10.21 $10.21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.47 $0.47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

30

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Linear Fluorescent Lamp T8

1. Data and assumptions taken from the 2018 SSL Forecast. The report states that efficacy improvements for T8 lamps are not expected in the future, and that the cost for all commercial fixtures is 

expected to decrease between 0.1%-0.6% per year. We use 0.5% per year here.

2. From 2020 to 2050, fixture (and fixture price) includes ballast.

Note: Assume no labor is associated with lamp replacement in the residential sector because residents likely replace lamps themselves.

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 30.8 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0

Lamp Lumens 2,770 2,855 2,450 2,855 3,100 2,855 3,100 2,855 3,100 2,855 3,100

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W)1 90 89 77 89 97 89 97 89 97 89 97

System Wattage 62.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1

System Lumens 4,875 5,082 4,361 5,082 5,518 5,082 5,518 5,082 5,518 5,082 5,518

System Efficacy (lm/W) 78 81 69 81 87 81 87 81 87 81 87

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 87% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%

CRI 85 87 90 87 85 87 85 87 85 87 85

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 4,100 5,000 4,100 3,500 4,100 3,500 4,100 3,500 4,100 3,500

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 21 31 23 31 40 31 40 31 40 31 40

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 767 767 767 767 767 767 767 767 767 767 767

Lamp Price (2022$) $6.54 $4.12 $3.36 $4.08 $4.32 $3.92 $4.15 $3.73 $3.95 $3.55 $3.75 

Ballast Price (2022$) 2 $19.10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $29.23 $76.29 $75.53 $75.53 $75.53 $72.56 $72.56 $69.01 $69.01 $65.64 $65.64 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $2.36 $1.44 $1.37 $1.43 $1.39 $1.37 $1.34 $1.31 $1.27 $1.24 $1.21 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $12.59 $29.61 $33.57 $29.31 $27.15 $27.19 $25.18 $25.86 $23.95 $24.60 $22.78 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $100.01 $189.07 $179.41 $181.97 $182.82 $171.18 $171.97 $164.42 $165.18 $158.00 $158.71 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.48 $0.21 $0.22 $0.20 $0.17 $0.19 $0.16 $0.18 $0.15 $0.18 $0.14 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $20.51 $37.20 $41.14 $35.81 $33.13 $33.68 $31.17 $32.35 $29.93 $31.09 $28.76 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.10 $0.04 $0.05 $0.04 $0.03 $0.04 $0.03 $0.04 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 
Final

31

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Linear Fluorescent Lamp T5

1. Year-to-year price and performance assumptions for incumbent technologies 2030–2050: Efficacy +0.5%/yr, Life +0.5%/yr, Cost -0.5%/yr (SSL Forecast 2018). 2020 data back calculated using the 

2022 data and these assumptions

2. From 2020 to 2050, fixture (and fixture price) includes ballast.

Note: Assume no labor is associated with lamp replacement in the residential sector because residents likely replace lamps themselves. 

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 27.0 27.5 28.0 27.5 26.0 27.5 26.0 27.5 26.0 27.5 26.0

Lamp Lumens 2,697 2,732 2,530 2,732 2,900 2,732 2,900 2,732 2,900 2,732 2,900

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W)1 100 99 90 99 112 99 112 99 112 99 112

System Wattage 51.5 61.7 62.9 61.7 58.4 61.7 58.4 61.7 58.4 61.7 58.4

System Lumens 4,747 5,464 5,060 5,464 5,800 5,464 5,800 5,464 5,800 5,464 5,800

System Efficacy (lm/W) 92 89 81 89 99 89 99 89 99 89 99

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 92% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89%

CRI 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 4,100 5,000 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 30 29 36 29 30 29 30 29 30 29 30

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 949 949 949 949 949 949 949 949 949 949 949

Lamp Price (2022$) $7.05 $9.54 $13.76 $9.45 $21.28 $9.08 $20.44 $8.63 $19.44 $8.21 $18.49 

Ballast Price (2022$)2 $31.17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $109.93 $170.87 $170.87 $170.87 $170.87 $164.15 $164.15 $156.13 $156.13 $148.50 $148.50 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $2.61 $3.49 $5.44 $3.46 $7.34 $3.32 $7.05 $3.16 $6.70 $3.01 $6.38 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $32.69 $34.77 $39.21 $34.73 $36.80 $33.37 $35.35 $31.73 $33.62 $30.18 $31.98 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $193.80 $228.57 $231.39 $222.77 $246.43 $215.31 $238.04 $206.40 $228.02 $197.92 $218.48 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.45 $0.62 $0.73 $0.62 $1.35 $0.59 $1.29 $0.57 $1.23 $0.54 $1.17 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $40.83 $41.83 $45.73 $40.77 $42.49 $39.41 $41.04 $37.77 $39.31 $36.22 $37.67 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.09 $0.11 $0.14 $0.11 $0.23 $0.11 $0.22 $0.10 $0.21 $0.10 $0.20 
Final

32

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Linear LED Replacement Lamp 2-Lamp System

1. N/A because a fixture and an LED replacement lamp would not be purchased separately for a new installation or retrofit when there are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient 

and cost effective. These lamps are sold only as replacements to go into existing fixtures. 

Note: Assume no labor is associated with lamp replacement in the residential sector because residents likely replace lamps themselves. 

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 18.5 16.3 16.0 13.7 11.0 11.6 9.3 10.0 8.0 8.8 7.2

Lamp Lumens 2,013 2,130 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 111.0 130.7 112.5 140.1 163.6 166.2 194.1 192.2 224.4 218.0 250.0

System Wattage 36.9 32.6 32.0 27.4 22.0 23.1 18.6 20.0 16.0 17.6 14.4

System Lumens 3,583 4,004 3,384 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456

System Efficacy (lm/W) 97.0 122.8 105.8 134.5 157.1 159.6 186.3 184.5 215.4 209.3 240.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 83 82 82 81 80 81 80 81 80 81 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 3,500 4,100 4,100 5,000 4,100 5,000 4,100 5,000 4,100 5,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 55 50 50 54 50 54 50 54 50 54 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730

Lamp Price (2022$) $27.00 $12.89 $14.63 $11.11 $4.28 $9.97 $3.84 $9.87 $3.80 $9.77 $3.77 

Ballast Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $13.41 $6.05 $8.13 $5.79 $2.38 $5.19 $2.13 $5.14 $2.11 $5.09 $2.09 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $6.44 $8.65 $6.03 $2.48 $5.41 $2.22 $5.35 $2.20 $5.30 $2.18 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $54.00 $25.78 $29.26 $22.22 $8.56 $19.95 $7.68 $19.74 $7.60 $19.55 $7.53 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.72 $0.38 $0.43 $0.30 $0.12 $0.27 $0.11 $0.27 $0.11 $0.26 $0.11 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $15.07 $6.44 $8.65 $6.03 $2.48 $5.41 $2.22 $5.35 $2.20 $5.30 $2.18 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.20 $0.09 $0.13 $0.08 $0.04 $0.07 $0.03 $0.07 $0.03 $0.07 $0.03 
Final

33

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Linear LED Luminaire

1. N/A because the lamp and fixture are both included in the luminaire.

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 50.0 43.1 49.0 44.0 35.0 35.6 28.3 29.9 23.8 25.8 20.5

System Lumens 4,615 4,945 5,024 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800

System Efficacy (lm/W) 92.3 114.7 102.5 120.5 137.1 148.8 169.3 177.2 201.7 205.5 233.9

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 83 82 80 79 80 79 80 79 80 79 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,838 3,000 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 56 58 54 53 50 53 50 53 50 53 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) $181.60 $158.60 $144.85 $152.54 $207.80 $121.11 $164.98 $105.34 $143.50 $90.11 $122.76 

Ballast Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $78.70 $64.15 $57.66 $57.54 $86.58 $45.68 $68.74 $39.74 $59.79 $33.99 $51.15 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $401.81 $355.81 $322.70 $338.08 $448.60 $275.22 $362.97 $243.68 $320.01 $213.23 $278.52 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $2.30 $1.97 $1.92 $2.04 $2.81 $1.70 $2.31 $1.52 $2.06 $1.36 $1.82 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $87.07 $71.95 $64.23 $63.76 $93.46 $51.91 $75.62 $45.96 $66.67 $40.22 $58.03 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.50 $0.40 $0.38 $0.39 $0.59 $0.32 $0.48 $0.29 $0.43 $0.26 $0.38 
Final

34

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps

• The residential outdoor lamps characterized in this report include reflector and general service lamps used for security and/or porch lighting that can be switched on from inside 

the home (i.e. parking lot/garage and outdoor common area lighting at multifamily buildings are excluded) with lumen outputs of approximately 1,000 – 1,400 lumens. Multiple 

baseline lamps were analyzed according to estimates of installed base average lumens by lamp type, including: 

Performance: 

• 65W BR30 is the only viable incandescent reflector lamp due to exemption from EISA 2007. The lumen output of this lamp type is well below other reflector lamp technologies 

characterized for residential outdoor spaces, thus its use is limited for this application. This product is, as of 2022, expected to be eliminated by DOE’s 45 lm/W backstop 

requirement.

• A majority of residential lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 

5,000K (daylight), and 6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is 

advised to chose a product with a similar CCT value in order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100. However, CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average 

around 80. CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination. High CRI products are preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is 

of real value. Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical lamp prices in 2015 reflecting a mix of lamp 

characteristics and features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Fixture prices and installation costs are not included for the residential sector. Labor costs are assumed to be negligible because homeowners likely replaces lamps themselves as 

they burn out. Therefore, total installed cost is the price of a lamp, and annual maintenance costs are the cost of replacing the lamps, which is a function of lamp life, lamp price, 

and the annual operating hours for residential reflector lamps. 

• Disposal costs are not characterized for residential lighting in this analysis. In residential cases, disposal is done by the occupant. Lamp and product burnout are assumed to result 

in no "added" cost aside from the work performed to install the replacement. 

Security(Reflector Lamps) Porch (GeneralService Lamps)

Incandescent BR30 IncandescentA-Type

Halogen PAR38 Halogen A-Type

Halogen Infrared Reflector (HIR) PAR38 CFL Bare Spiral

CFL PAR38 LED A-Type Lamp

LED PAR38
Final

35

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps

Legislation:

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps. These standards 

can not be achieved by traditional incandescent or halogen technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry, they will likely not be met. It 

is currently assumed that industry will increase its investment in LED technology at the expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for 

manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service omnidirectional lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 70 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 80 lm/W for lamps with 

CRI < 90. 

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service reflector lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 61 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 70 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90. 

• Additionally, the lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and price for 

products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 

Omnidirectional

0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Incandescent Directional 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% In addition to benefiting from higher efficiency reflector coatings, improvements in efficacy can be made by using more rareearth phosphors in compact fluorescent lamps. Lifetime improvements can be made by improving the compact fluorescent 

lamp electrodes.
Final

36

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: Incandescent BR30 )

DATA

20151 20201 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 65.0 65.0 N/A 65.0 N/A N/A 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 637 637 N/A 602 N/A N/A 600 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 9.8 9.8 N/A 9.3 N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature 

(CCT) 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand 

hours) 2.0 2.0 N/A 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 621 621 N/A 621 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $4.00 $4.00 N/A $3.70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $6.28 $6.28 N/A $6.15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $4.00 $4.00 N/A $3.70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1.24 $1.24 N/A $1.15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $6.28 $6.28 N/A $6.15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/klm) $1.95 $1.95 N/A $1.91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

1. Incandescent BR30 lamps were previously exempted from DOE Incandescent Reflector Lamp standards and the EISA 2007 general service lamp definition until DOE's new final 

rule in 2022. The new definitions go into effect in 2023.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule 

also amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. These standards cannot be met with incandescent technologies. 
Final

37

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: Halogen PAR38 )

1. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule 

also amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. These standards cannot be met with halogen technologies. 

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20231 20301 20401 20501

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 88.7 78.7 N/A 70.0 N/A N/A 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 1,323 1,316 N/A 1,308 N/A N/A 1,308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 14.9 16.9 N/A 18.7 N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature 

(CCT) 2,900 2,900 N/A 2,900 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand 

hours) 2.4 2.4 N/A 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 876 876 N/A 876 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $6.24 $9.15 N/A $10.32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $4.71 $6.96 N/A $7.89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $6.24 $9.15 N/A $10.32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $2.28 $3.34 N/A $6.62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $4.71 $6.96 N/A $7.89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/klm) $1.72 $2.54 N/A $5.06 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

38

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: HIR PAR38 )

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20231 20301 20401 20501

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 70.0 70.0 N/A 70.0 N/A N/A 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 1,407 1,334 N/A 1,260 N/A N/A 1,260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 20.1 19.1 N/A 18.0 N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature 

(CCT) 2,850 2,850 N/A 2,900 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand 

hours) 3.6 3.6 N/A 3.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 876 876 N/A 876 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $21.85 $27.31 N/A $29.49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $15.53 $20.48 N/A $23.40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $21.85 $27.31 N/A $29.49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $5.32 $6.64 N/A $8.61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $15.53 $20.48 N/A $23.40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/klm) $3.78 $4.98 N/A $6.83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

1. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule 

also amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. These standards cannot be met with halogen technologies. 
Final

39

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: CFL PAR38)

1. 2015 and 2020 data calculated based on 2009 installed stock data and the following assumptions: Efficacy +0.5%/y, Cost -0.5%/y (NCI, 2019)

2. Virtually all manufacturers have discontinued manufacturing of CFL reflector lamps in favor of LEDs. Distributor offerings for CFL reflectors have been eliminated.

3. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule also 

amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. Although these standards can be met with CFL technology, manufacturers have 

discontinued manufacturing CFL reflector lamps in favor of LEDs.

DATA

20151 20201 20222 20233 20303 20403 20503

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 23.0 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 1,300 1,300 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 56.5 57.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 82 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 10.0 10.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 913 913 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $8.52 $8.31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $6.55 $6.39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $8.52 $8.31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.78 $0.74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $6.55 $6.39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/klm) $0.60 $0.57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

40

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: LED PAR38)

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20231 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 19.2 15.5 17.0 16.4 17.0 22.0 29.9 14.0 14.6 12.3 12.7 10.9 11.3

Lamp Lumens 1,202 1,211 1,200 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,344 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 62.7 77.9 70.6 82.0 100.0 61.0 45.0 95.7 116.7 109.5 133.5 123.2 150.2

CRI 83 86 82 86 82 80 N/A 86 86 86 86 86 86

Correlated Color Temperature 

(CCT) 3,000 3,000 2,700 3,000 3,000 3,000 N/A 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand 

hours) 24 27 25 27 25 15 N/A 27 25 27 25 27 25

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 730 730 730 730 730 N/A N/A 730 730 730 730 730 730

Lamp Price (2022$) $35.23 $22.44 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $29.31 $18.54 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $35.23 $22.44 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1.07 $0.60 $0.69 $0.62 $0.46 N/A N/A $0.52 $0.38 $0.46 $0.34 $0.41 $0.31 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $29.31 $18.54 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/klm) $0.89 $0.49 $0.58 $0.46 $0.27 N/A N/A $0.39 $0.23 $0.35 $0.20 $0.31 $0.18 

1. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED lighting 

products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.

2. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 2020)
Final

41

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Porch: Incandescent A19 )

1. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) prescribes standards for 75 watt incandescent lamps as of January 1, 2013. Despite the phase out of incandescent 

lamps, these products remain in the installed stock.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. These standards 

cannot be met with incandescent technologies. 

DATA

20151 20201 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 75.0 75.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 1,170 1,170 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 15.6 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 511 511 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$)

$0.44 $0.44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $0.38 $0.38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $0.44 $0.44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.30 $0.30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $0.38 $0.38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)

$0.26 $0.26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

42

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Porch: Halogen A19)

1. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 prescribes standards for current 75 watt incandescent lamps as of January 1, 2013. Starting in 2013, 75 watt incandescent lamps 

were replaced by halogen lamps.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. These standards 

cannot be met with existing halogen lamp technologies. 

DATA

20151 20201 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 53.0 53.0 N/A 53.0 N/A N/A 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 1050 936 N/A 890 N/A N/A 890 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 19.8 17.7 N/A 16.8 N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,850 2,950 N/A 2,950 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 1.0 1.0 N/A 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y)

621 621 N/A 621 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $2.37 $3.58 N/A $4.06 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $2.26 $3.82 N/A $4.56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Installation (hours) 0 0 N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $2.37 $3.58 N/A $4.06 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1.47 $2.22 N/A $2.52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

$2.26 $3.82 N/A $4.56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $1.40 $2.37 N/A $2.83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

43

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Porch: CFL Bare Spiral)

1. 2020 data back calculated based on 2022 data and the following assumptions: Efficacy +0.5%/y, Cost -0.5%/y (NCI, 2019)

2. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 2020)

3. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule also 

amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. CFL products exceedthe new minimum efficacy standards.

4. The market for 75W equivalent bare spiral CFLs is very limited because almost all product lines are discontinued. This trend is expected to continue until no products are offered at this level 

by 2030.

DATA

2015 20201 2022 20233 20304 20404 20504

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 18.6 14.6 20.0 18.8 18.0 13.8 26.0 13.9 12.8 13.2 12.2 12.5 11.6

Lamp Lumens 1,216 900 1,100 1,171 1,250 800 1,171 900 925 900 925 900 925

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 65.4 61.8 55.0 62.4 69.4 80.0 45.0 65.0 72.3 68.3 76.0 71.8 79.9

CRI 82 82 85 83 82 80 N/A 83 82 83 82 83 82

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 5,000 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 10.0 10.0 12.0 10.4 10.0 10.0 N/A 10.4 10.0 10.4 10.0 10.4 10.0

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 767 767 767 767 767 N/A N/A 767 767 767 767 767 767

Lamp Price (2022$) $3.82 $5.33 $9.00 $5.28 $5.91 N/A N/A $5.07 $5.67 $4.82 $5.40 $4.59 $5.13

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $3.14 $5.92 $8.18 $4.51 $4.72 N/A N/A $5.63 $6.13 $5.36 $5.83 $5.10 $5.55 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $3.82 $5.33 $9.00 $5.28 $5.91 N/A N/A $5.07 $5.67 $4.82 $5.40 $4.59 $5.13 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.29 $0.41 $0.58 $0.39 $0.45 N/A N/A $0.37 $0.44 $0.36 $0.41 $0.34 $0.39 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $3.14 $5.92 $8.18 $4.51 $4.72 N/A N/A $5.63 $6.13 $5.36 $5.83 $5.10 $5.55 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/klm) $0.24 $0.45 $0.52 $0.33 $0.36 N/A N/A $0.42 $0.47 $0.40 $0.45 $0.38 $0.43 
Final

44

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Porch: LED A-Type)

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20231 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 12.9 11.8 13.5 11.9 11.0 13.6 24.4 9.9 9.1 7.7 7.1 6.7 6.2

Lamp Lumens 1,073 1,102 1,100 1,089 1,100 1,089 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 83.1 93.5 81.5 92.2 100.0 80 45.0 111.5 120.9 142.0 154.0 164.6 178.6

CRI 81 85 80 86 80 80 N/A 86 80 86 80 86 80

Correlated Color Temperature 

(CCT) 2,700 2,700 3,000 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand 

hours) 25 21 25 18 25 15 N/A 18 25 18 25 18 25

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 657 657 657 657 657 N/A N/A 657 657 657 657 657 657

Lamp Price (2022$) $18.13 $8.48 $4.39 $3.92 $5.29 N/A N/A $3.23 $4.36 $2.84 $3.84 $2.46 $3.31

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $16.90 $7.70 $3.99 $3.60 $4.81 N/A N/A $7.02 $7.02 $3.57 $3.57 $2.38 $2.38

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $18.13 $8.48 $4.39 $3.92 $5.29 N/A N/A $3.23 $4.36 $2.84 $3.84 $2.46 $3.31 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.49 $0.27 $0.12 $0.14 $0.14 N/A N/A $0.12 $0.11 $0.10 $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $16.90 $7.70 $3.99 $3.60 $4.81 N/A N/A $2.94 $3.97 $2.59 $3.49 $2.23 $3.01 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/klm) $0.45 $0.24 $0.10 $0.13 $0.13 N/A N/A $0.11 $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 $0.08 $0.08 

1. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED lighting 

products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.

2. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 2020)
Final

Commercial Lighting

45
Final

46

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial General Service Lamps in Recessed Can Fixtures

This section characterizes commercial omnidirectional incandescent, halogen, CFL, and LED screw-based general service lamps emitting approximately 1,600 lumens (equivalent to a 100W incandescent lamp) used 

in recessed can fixtures. A recessed can is a directional fixture set into the ceiling, in which all of the light is directed downwards from the opening. Therefore, an omnidirectional lamp is not well suited for use in 

such fixtures because light that emits upwards and out of the sides must be reflected downwards and out of the fixture and some light is absorbed in the process. A fixture efficiency of 61% is used to characterize 

these lumen losses for all omnidirectional lamps. For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each 

year.

Performance: 

• A majority of general service lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 5,000K (daylight), and 

6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is advised to chose a product with a similar CCT value in 

order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100. However, CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. CRI values of 80 are 

considered suitable for general illumination. High CRI products are preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for 

future LED products except for these specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamps which are sold only as a 

replacement for use in an existing fixture. There are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient and cost effective for new installations or fixture retrofits. Many factors influence the price of LED lamps 

including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore typical lamp prices in 2015 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and 

high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and the annual operating 

hours for commercial general service lamps (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for high intensity discharge (HID) lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

Legislation:

• The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) established standards for 100W lamps effective in 2012. These standards cannot be achieved by incandescent bulbs, but they can be met by 

halogen, CFL, and LED technologies from 2012 to 2023.

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. This action 

also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps.These standards can not be achieved by traditional incandescent or halogen 

technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry, they will likely not be met. It is currently assumed that industry will increase its investment in LED technology at the 

expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service omnidirectional lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 70 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 80 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90. Additionally, the 

lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).
Final

47

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial General Service Lamps in Recessed Can Fixtures

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus would be on improving efficacy, lifetime, 

and price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050.

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements 

as of 2022

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% Improvements in efficacy can be made by using more rare-earth phosphors in compact fluorescent 

lamps. Lifetime improvements can be made by improving the compact fluorescent lamp electrodes.
Final

48

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial General Service 100W Incandescent Lamp in Recessed Can Fixture

1. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) prescribes standards for 100 watt incandescent lamps as of January 1, 2012. Despite the phase out of incandescent 

lamps, these products remain in the installed stock.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. These standards cannot be met with incandescent technologies. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and 

distribution in July 2023. Note: the 45 lm/W backstop applies to the lamp, not the calculated fixture efficacy. 

3. Based on a fixture efficiency of 61% for an omnidirectional lamp installed in a recessed can fixture. 

DATA

20121 20181 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 100.0 100.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 1,620 1,620 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,620 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 16.2 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 100.0 100.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Lumens3 988 988 N/A N/A N/A N/A 988 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Efficacy (lm/W) 9.9 9.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,015 4,015 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $0.67 $0.67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $23.72 $23.72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $0.41 $0.41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $24.68 $24.68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.05 0.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $101.61 $101.61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $24.25 $24.25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $102.83 $102.83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $24.54 $24.54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

49

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial General Service Halogen Lamp (100W Incandescent Equivalent) in Recessed 

Can Fixture

1. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) prescribes standards for 100 watt incandescent lamps as of January 1, 2012. Starting in 2012, 100 watt incandescent lamps were replaced by 

halogen lamps.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. These 

standards cannot be met with existing commercialized halogen lamp technologies. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. Note: the 

45 lm/W backstop applies to the lamp, not the calculated fixture efficacy. 

3. Based on a fixture efficiency of 61% for an omnidirectional lamp installed in a recessed can fixture. 

Additional note: No products are currently marketed specifically as 100W equivalent HIR general service lamps and no available data from manufacturers. It is assumed this market is the same as 100W equivalent 

halogen lamps.

DATA

20121 20181 20222 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 72.0 72.0 N/A 72.0 N/A N/A 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 1,490 1,490 N/A 1,490 N/A N/A 1,490 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 20.7 20.7 N/A 20.7 N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 72.0 72.0 N/A 72.0 N/A N/A 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Lumens3 909 909 N/A 909 N/A N/A 909 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Efficacy (lm/W) 12.6 12.6 N/A 12.6 N/A N/A 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,850 3,000 N/A 3,000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 1.0 1.0 N/A 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,015 4,015 N/A 4,015 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $2.33 $5.16 N/A $4.02 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $23.72 $26.38 N/A $22.07 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $1.57 $3.46 N/A $2.70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $28.67 $34.71 N/A $28.71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 N/A $66.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.0 1.0 N/A 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.05 0.05 N/A 0.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $103.28 $108.77 N/A $92.09 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $24.87 $36.23 N/A $29.39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $113.63 $119.67 N/A $101.32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $27.36 $39.86 N/A $32.34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

50

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial General Service 100W Equivalent CFL Bare Spiral in Recessed Can Fixture

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. These standards can be 

met with existing CFL products. Note: the 45 lm/W backstop applies to the lamp, not the calculated fixture efficacy. 

3. Based on a fixture efficiency of 61% for an omnidirectional lamp installed in a recessed can fixture. 

4. Year-to-year price and performance assumptions 2022 – 2050: Efficacy +0.5%, Equipment Cost -0.5%

DATA

2012 2018 2022 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 24.7 24.6 25.0 24.6 26.0 26.0 37.6 23.6 25.0 22.5 23.8 21.4 22.6

Lamp Lumens 1,680 1,680 1,600 1,694 1,835 1,600 1,694 1,694 1,835 1,694 1,835 1,694 1,835

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 68.1 68.2 64.0 68.9 70.6 80.0 45.0 71.7 73.4 75.3 77.2 79.2 81.2

System Wattage 24.7 24.6 25.0 24.6 26.0 26.0 37.6 23.6 25.0 22.5 23.8 21.4 22.6

System Lumens3 1,025 1,025 976 1,033 1,119 976 1,033 1,033 1,119 1,033 1,119 1,033 1,119

System Efficacy (lm/W) 41.6 41.6 39.0 42.0 43.1 37.5 27.5 43.7 44.8 46.0 47.1 48.3 49.5

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 82 82 82 82 82 82 N/A 82 82 82 82 82 82

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,000 3,000 2,700 3,000 5,000 3,000 N/A 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 N/A 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 N/A N/A 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745

Lamp Price (2022$) 4 $3.08 $6.40 $9.90 $8.62 $9.35 N/A N/A $8.28 $8.98 $7.87 $8.54 $7.49 $8.13

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) 4 $23.72 $26.38 $22.07 $22.07 $22.07 N/A N/A $21.20 $21.20 $20.17 $20.17 $19.18 $19.18

Disposal Cost (2022$) $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 N/A N/A $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $1.84 $3.81 $6.19 $5.09 $5.10 N/A N/A $4.89 $4.90 $4.65 $4.66 $4.42 $4.43 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $26.15 $31.98 $32.76 $29.70 $28.07 N/A N/A $28.53 $26.97 $27.13 $25.65 $25.81 $24.39 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 N/A N/A $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 N/A N/A 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $104.03 $110.01 $97.97 $96.69 $97.42 N/A N/A $95.48 $96.18 $94.04 $94.71 $92.67 $93.31 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $3.53 $5.11 $6.50 $5.89 $6.24 N/A N/A $5.73 $6.07 $5.54 $5.86 $5.36 $5.66

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $101.48 $107.32 $100.38 $93.57 $87.03 N/A N/A $92.40 $85.93 $91.00 $84.61 $89.68 $83.36 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $3.45 $4.98 $6.66 $5.70 $5.57 N/A N/A $5.55 $5.42 $5.36 $5.23 $5.18 $5.06
Final

51

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial General Service 100W Equivalent LED Replacement Lamp in Recessed Can 

Fixture

DATA

2012 2018 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 26.7 14.5 16.0 14.8 13.0 20.0 34.8 12.2 10.8 9.6 8.4 8.3 7.3

Lamp Lumens 1,600 1,528 1,600 1,567 1,600 1,600 1,567 1,567 1,600 1,567 1,600 1,567 1,600

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 60.0 105.1 100.0 106.0 123.1 80.0 45.0 128.2 148.8 163.3 189.5 189.3 219.8

System Wattage 26.7 14.5 16.0 14.8 13.0 20.0 34.8 12.2 10.8 9.6 8.4 8.3 7.3

System Lumens3 976 932 976 956 976 976 956 956 976 956 976 956 976

System Efficacy (lm/W) 36.6 64.1 61.0 64.7 75.1 48.8 27.5 78.2 90.8 99.6 115.6 115.5 134.1

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 80 80 90 84.8 84 80 N/A 84.8 84.8 84.8 84.8 84.8 84.8

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,000 3,000 2,700 2,700 5,000 N/A N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 22.0 17.9 25.0 16.9 25.0 15.0 N/A 16.9 25.0 16.9 25.0 16.9 25.0

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 N/A N/A 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928

Lamp Price (2022$) $47.45 $11.28 $5.62 $7.04 $3.39 N/A N/A $5.81 $2.80 $5.11 $2.46 $4.41 $2.12

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $23.72 $26.38 $22.07 $22.07 $22.07 N/A N/A $21.20 $21.20 $20.17 $20.17 $19.18 $19.18

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $25.00 $7.38 $3.51 $4.49 $2.12 N/A N/A $3.71 $1.75 $3.26 $1.54 $2.82 $1.33

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $72.92 $40.40 $28.37 $30.46 $26.09 N/A N/A $28.26 $24.59 $26.45 $23.18 $24.68 $21.83 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 N/A N/A $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 N/A N/A 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $148.39 $114.88 $93.69 $95.11 $91.46 N/A N/A $93.01 $90.00 $91.27 $88.63 $89.59 $87.30 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $11.49 $4.16 $1.76 $3.02 $1.32 N/A N/A $2.66 $1.20 $2.45 $1.14 $2.25 $1.07

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $152.04 $123.25 $95.99 $99.52 $93.71 N/A N/A $97.32 $92.21 $95.51 $90.81 $93.75 $89.45 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $11.77 $4.46 $1.80 $3.16 $1.35 N/A N/A $2.78 $1.23 $2.57 $1.16 $2.35 $1.10

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED lighting 

products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards. Note: the 45 lm/W backstop applies to the lamp, not the calculated fixture efficacy. 

3. Based on a fixture efficiency of 61% for an omnidirectional lamp installed in a recessed can fixture. 
Final

52

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reflector Lamps in Recessed Can Fixtures

This section characterizes commercial halogen, halogen infrared reflector (HIR), and LED screw-based reflector lamps emitting approximately 1400 lumens used in recessed can fixtures. 

• HIR lamps contain a tungsten halogen capsule with a film coating on the inside of the capsule. The coating reflects infrared radiation back into the lamp filament, which forces the filament to 

burn at a higher temperature. This design increases the efficacy of the lamp, without reducing operating life.

• A recessed can is a directional fixture set into the ceiling, in which all of the light is directed downwards from the opening. Therefore, a reflector lamp, which employs reflective coating to 

direct light out in only one direction, is well suited for use in such fixtures. However, some light is not able to escape the fixture, and a fixture efficiency of 93% is used to characterize these 

minimal lumen losses. For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• A majority of reflector lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 5,000K 

(daylight), and 6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is advised to chose a 

product with a similar CCT value in order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100. However, CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. 

CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination. High CRI products are preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. Higher 

CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamps which 

are sold only as a replacement for use in an existing fixture. Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and the 

annual operating hours for commercial reflector lamps (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

Legislation:

• EPAct92 established minimum performance standards for some reflector lamps and provided exemptions for certain specialty applications (e.g., ER/BR, vibration service, more than 5% 

neodymium oxide, impact resistant, infrared heat, colored). EPAct92 effectively phased-out R-shaped tungsten filament incandescent reflector lamps at certain wattages and bulb diameters, 

replacing them with more efficient and cost effective tungsten-halogen parabolic aluminized reflector (PAR) lamps. EISA2007 took away certain exemptions from EPACT 1992, requiring 

certain previously exempted lamps to meet EPAct92 minimum performance standards by January 1, 2008. In 2015, DOE issued a final rule that determined that amending the standards for 

incandescent reflector lamps could not be economically justified. 

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and Conservation 

Act. This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps. These standards can not be achieved by 

traditional incandescent or halogen technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry,they will likely not be met. It is currently assumed that industry 

will increase its investment in LED technology at the expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for 

retail and distribution in July 2023.
Final

53

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reflector Lamps in Recessed Can Fixtures

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service reflector lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 61 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 70 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90. 

Additionally, the lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus would be on improving efficacy, lifetime, 

and price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements 

as of 2022

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% In addition to higher efficiency reflector coatings, improvements in efficacy can be made by using 

more rare-earth phosphors in compact fluorescent lamps. Lifetime improvements can be made by 

improving the compact fluorescent lamp electrodes.
Final

54

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Halogen Reflector Lamp (PAR38) in Recessed Can Fixture

1. Based on a fixture efficiency of 93% for an directional reflector lamp installed in a recessed can fixture. 

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. 

This Final Rule also amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. These standards cannot be met with existing commercialized 

halogen lamp technologies. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 90.0 87.3 N/A 70.0 N/A N/A 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 1,323 1,323 N/A 1,308 N/A N/A 1,308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 14.7 15.1 N/A 18.7 N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 90.0 87.3 N/A 70.0 N/A N/A 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Lumens1 1,230 1,230 N/A 1,217 N/A N/A 1,217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Efficacy (lm/W) 13.7 14.1 N/A 17.4 N/A N/A 41.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,850 2,850 N/A 2,850 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2.4 2.4 N/A 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,052 4,052 N/A 4,052 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $4.49 $7.99 N/A $10.32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $23.72 $26.38 N/A $22.07 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $3.39 $6.04 N/A $7.89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $22.93 $27.93 N/A $26.62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 N/A $66.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.0 1.0 N/A 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.05 0.05 N/A 0.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $105.43 $111.59 N/A $98.39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $14.09 $20.00 N/A $40.40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $85.69 $90.70 N/A $80.86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $11.46 $16.26 N/A $33.20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

55

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Halogen Infrared Reflector Lamp (PAR38) in Recessed Can Fixture

1. Based on a fixture efficiency of 93% for an directional reflector lamp installed in a recessed can fixture. 

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. 

This Final Rule also amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. These standards cannot be met with existing commercialized 

halogen lamp technologies. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 20232 20302 20402 20502

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 70.0 70.0 N/A 70.0 N/A N/A 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 1,407 1,407 N/A 1,260 N/A N/A 1,260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 20.1 20.1 N/A 18.0 N/A N/A 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 70.0 70.0 N/A 70.0 N/A N/A 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Lumens1 1,309 1,309 N/A 1,172 N/A N/A 1,172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Efficacy (lm/W) 18.7 18.7 N/A 16.7 N/A N/A 41.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 100 100 N/A 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,850 2,850 N/A 2,850 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 3.6 3.6 N/A 3.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,052 4,052 N/A 4,052 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $18.58 $25.12 N/A $29.49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $23.72 $26.38 N/A $22.07 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $13.20 $17.86 N/A $23.40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $32.33 $39.36 N/A $44.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 N/A $66.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.0 1.0 N/A 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.05 0.05 N/A 0.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $119.52 $128.73 N/A $117.56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $25.25 $32.62 N/A $44.28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $91.34 $98.38 N/A $100.32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $19.30 $24.93 N/A $37.79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Final

56

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial LED Reflector Lighting (PAR38)

1. Based on a fixture efficiency of 93% for an omnidirectional lamp installed in a recessed can fixture.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. 

The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule also amended the definition of GSLs 

to include previously exempted product classes, including reflector lamps. All LED lighting products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.

3. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 2020)

DATA

2012 2018 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR3 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 17.2 16.6 17.0 16.4 17.0 22.0 29.9 14.0 14.6 12.3 12.7 10.9 11.3

Lamp Lumens 1,045 1,210 1,200 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,344 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 60.9 73.0 70.6 82.0 100.0 61.0 45.0 95.7 116.7 109.5 133.5 123.2 150.2

System Wattage 17.2 16.6 17.0 16.4 17.0 22.0 29.9 14.0 14.6 12.3 12.7 10.9 11.3

System Lumens1 972 1,125 1,116 1,250 1,581 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,581 1,250 1,581 1,250 1,581

System Efficacy (lm/W) 56.6 67.9 65.6 76.1 93.0 56.7 41.9 89.0 108.6 101.9 124.2 114.6 139.7

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 83 83 82 86 82 80 N/A 86 82 86 82 86 82

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,000 3,000 2,700 3,000 3,000 3,000 N/A 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 22 15 25 28 25 25 N/A 28 25 28 25 28 25

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 N/A N/A 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928

Lamp Price (2022$) $61.98 $28.10 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $23.72 $26.38 $22.07 $22.07 $22.07 N/A N/A $21.20 $21.20 $20.17 $20.17 $19.18 $19.18

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $59.31 $23.23 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $88.18 $48.42 $41.02 $36.13 $23.88 N/A N/A $32.48 $21.75 $30.02 $20.22 $27.64 $18.74 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 N/A N/A $91.40 $91.40 $91.40 $91.40 $91.40 $91.40 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 N/A N/A 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $162.93 $131.71 $111.78 $111.16 $103.76 N/A N/A $132.00 $125.78 $128.92 $123.36 $125.95 $121.02 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $14.75 $10.50 $5.32 $4.64 $3.74 N/A N/A $4.22 $3.50 $3.86 $3.23 $3.51 $2.96

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $167.64 $117.04 $100.16 $88.92 $65.63 N/A N/A $105.59 $79.56 $103.13 $78.02 $100.75 $76.55 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $15.17 $9.33 $4.77 $3.72 $2.37 N/A N/A $3.37 $2.21 $3.09 $2.04 $2.81 $1.87
Final

57

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

This section characterizes commercial linear fixtures that house two 4ft long linear lamps and their integrated luminaire equivalents. The technologies available for this system are linear 

fluorescent and LED. 

• Linear fluorescent options are T5, T8, and T12 lamps. T5 lamps are approximately 40% narrower than T8 lamps and almost 60% narrower than T12 lamps. This narrowness allows T5 lamps 

to be coated with higher quality, more efficient phosphor blends than larger diameter lamps, resulting in a more efficacious lamp. The compact size of T5 lamps also permits greater flexibility 

in lighting design and construction.

• LED options for linear fixtures include replacement lamps that can fit directly into an existing fixture and fully integratedluminaires that can be used to replace existing fixtures. LED 

replacement lamps are also known as TLEDs. Type A TLEDs can be installed with existing ballasts and Type B and C TLEDs require the ballast to be disconnected. Replacement lamps are 

only sold to go into existing fixtures. If a new fixture is to be installed, a fully integrated LED luminaire is a more cost effective and efficient option. Because LED luminaires are fully 

integrated, they do not have lamp or fixture efficiency losses associated with ballasts and fixture optics. For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year 

fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• Linear lamps often have a nominal CCT rating of 3,500K, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 4,000K, and 4,100K (neutral white) are also common. 5,000K (daylight) lamps are available as 

well. When replacing a light bulb, it is important to choose a product with a similar CCT value to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100, but for CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. 

CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination, with high CRI products being preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. 

Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these very specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of 2 lamps, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamps, 

which are sold only as a replacement for use in an existing fixture. There are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient and cost effective for new installations or fixture retrofits. 

Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore typical lamp prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and 

features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and 

the annual operating hours of 4055 hours/year for commercial 4ft linear systems (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

Legislation:

• Beginning July 14, 2012 (or July 14, 2014, for T8 700-series phosphor lamps), DOE fluorescent lamp standards required a minimum efficacy of 89 lm/W. Although the amended performancebased standards do not explicitly prohibit T12 lamps, no T12 lamps met the standard at the time of its announcement. Since then,however, T12 lamps meeting the standard have entered the 

market.

• California's Title 24 mandates the use of electronic ballasts with high efficacy luminaires (including fluorescent) of 13 W or higher (CEC, 2005).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover commercial linear luminaires (ENERGY STAR, 2020). 
Final

58

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and price for 

products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050.

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

T8 F32 Commodity 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T8 F32 High Efficiency/High Output 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T5 F28 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

59

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-ft T8 F32 Commodity in 2-Lamp System

1. Data and assumptions taken from the 2018 SSL Forecast. The report states that efficacy improvements for T8 lamps are not expected in the future and that cost for all commercial 

fixtures is expected to decrease between 0.1%-0.6% per year. We use 0.5% per year here.

2. From 2020 to 2050, fixture (and fixture price) includes ballast.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average1

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0

Lamp Lumens 2,725 2,855 2,450 2,855 3,100 2,855 3,100 2,855 3,100 2,855 3,100

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 85.2 89.0 76.6 89.2 96.9 89.2 96.9 89.2 96.9 89.2 96.9

System Wattage 61.8 62.5 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1

System Lumens 4,796 5,082 4,361 5,082 5,518 5,082 5,518 5,082 5,518 5,082 5,518

System Efficacy (lm/W) 77.7 81.4 69.1 80.6 87.5 80.6 87.5 80.6 87.5 80.6 87.5

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 91% 91% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%

CRI 83 87 90 87 85 87 85 87 85 87 85

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 4,100 5,000 4,100 3,500 4,100 3,500 4,100 3,500 4,100 3,500

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 31 23 31 40 31 40 31 40 31 40

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,055 2,920 2,920 2,920 2,920 2,920 2,920 2,920 2,920 2,920 2,920

Lamp Price (2022$) $7.81 $5.02 $3.36 $4.08 $4.32 $3.92 $4.15 $3.73 $3.95 $3.55 $3.75 

Ballast Price (2022$)2 $19.56 $19.40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $29.67 $77.61 $75.53 $75.53 $75.53 $72.56 $72.56 $69.01 $69.01 $65.64 $65.64 

Disposal Costs (2022$) $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $2.86 $1.76 $1.37 $1.43 $1.39 $1.37 $1.34 $1.31 $1.27 $1.24 $1.21 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $13.52 $21.07 $33.57 $29.31 $27.15 $15.91 $14.65 $15.05 $13.94 $14.31 $13.26 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $103.45 $145.67 $179.41 $181.97 $182.82 $113.86 $113.86 $109.47 $109.91 $105.73 $106.15 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $7.89 $3.88 $4.24 $3.28 $2.58 $3.25 $2.55 $3.21 $2.52 $3.18 $2.49 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $21.57 $28.66 $41.14 $35.81 $33.13 $22.41 $20.63 $21.54 $19.92 $20.81 $19.24 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $1.65 $0.76 $0.97 $0.65 $0.47 $0.64 $0.46 $0.63 $0.46 $0.63 $0.45 
Final

60

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-ft T8 F28 High-efficiency and High-output in 2-Lamp System

1. Only a typical dataset because provided as these lamps all have similar efficacies.

2. Data and assumptions taken from the 2018 SSL Forecast. The report states that efficacy improvements for T8 lamps are not expected in the future and that cost for all 

commercial fixtures is expected to decrease between 0.1%-0.6% per year. We use 0.5% per year here.

3. From 2018 to 2050, fixture (and fixture price) includes ballast.

DATA1

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average2 Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0

Lamp Lumens 2,560 2,682 2,682 2,682 2,682 2,682

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 91 96 96 96 96 96

System Wattage 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4

System Lumens 4,557 4,774 4,774 4,774 4,774 4,774

System Efficacy (lm/W) 82 86 86 86 86 86

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%

CRI 85 84 84 84 84 84

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 48 48 48 48 48

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,055 2,920 2,920 2,920 2,920 2,920

Lamp Price (2022$) $11.17 $5.40 $5.29 $5.08 $4.84 $4.60 

Ballast Price (2022$)3 $19.56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $35.20 $77.05 $75.53 $72.56 $69.01 $65.64 

Disposal Costs (2022$) $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $4.36 $2.01 $1.97 $1.90 $1.80 $1.71 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $30.12 $32.75 $32.11 $30.85 $29.34 $27.90 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $104.54 $121.06 $113.82 $110.64 $106.85 $103.24 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $9.03 $2.54 $2.26 $2.23 $2.20 $2.17 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $22.94 $25.36 $23.84 $23.18 $22.38 $21.63 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $1.98 $0.53 $0.47 $0.47 $0.46 $0.46 
Final

61

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-ft T5 F28 in 2-Lamp System

1. Year-to-year price and performance assumptions for incumbent technologies 2030–2050: Efficacy +0%/y, Life +0%/y, Cost -0.5%/y (SSL Forecast 2018).

2. From 2020 to 2050, fixture (and fixture price) includes ballast.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 28.0 27.7 28.0 27.5 26.0 27.5 26.0 27.5 26.0 27.5 26.0

Lamp Lumens 2,697 2,732 2,530 2,732 2,900 2,732 2,900 2,732 2,900 2,732 2,900

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 96.3 98.5 90.4 99.3 111.5 99.3 111.5 99.3 111.5 99.3 111.5

System Wattage 62.9 62.3 62.9 61.7 58.4 61.7 58.4 61.7 58.4 61.7 58.4

System Lumens 5,394 5,464 5,060 5,464 5,800 5,464 5,800 5,464 5,800 5,464 5,800

System Efficacy (lm/W) 85.8 87.8 80.5 88.5 99.4 88.5 99.4 88.5 99.4 88.5 99.4

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89%

CRI 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 3,500 5,000 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 30 29 36 29 30 29 30 29 30 29 30

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,055 3,176 3,176 3,176 3,176 3,176 3,176 3,176 3,176 3,176 3,176

Lamp Price (2022$)1 $6.54 $6.96 $13.76 $9.45 $21.28 $9.08 $20.44 $8.63 $19.44 $8.21 $18.49 

Ballast Price (2022$)2 $31.94 $22.83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $111.59 $83.32 $170.87 $170.87 $170.87 $164.15 $164.15 $156.13 $156.13 $148.50 $148.50 

Disposal Costs (2022$) $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $2.42 $2.55 $5.44 $3.46 $7.34 $3.32 $7.05 $3.16 $6.70 $3.01 $6.38 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $29.03 $21.97 $39.21 $34.73 $36.80 $37.53 $35.35 $31.73 $33.62 $30.18 $31.98 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $195.22 $158.68 $231.39 $222.77 $246.43 $238.04 $238.04 $206.40 $228.02 $197.92 $218.48 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $5.97 $4.93 $4.78 $4.99 $7.33 $4.91 $7.15 $4.81 $6.94 $4.72 $6.74 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $36.19 $29.04 $45.73 $40.77 $42.49 $43.57 $41.04 $37.77 $39.31 $36.22 $37.67 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $1.11 $0.90 $0.94 $0.91 $1.26 $0.90 $1.23 $0.88 $1.20 $0.86 $1.16 
Final

62

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-ft Linear LED Replacement Lamp in 2-Lamp System

1. N/A because a fixture and an LED replacement lamp would not be purchased separately for a new installation or retrofit when there are integrated LED luminaires 

that are more efficient and cost effective. These lamps are sold only as replacements to go into existing fixtures.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 20.8 17.0 16.0 13.7 11.0 11.6 9.3 10.0 8.0 8.8 7.2

Lamp Lumens 2,091 2,003 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 100.5 117.8 112.5 140.1 163.6 166.2 194.1 192.2 224.4 218.0 250.0

System Wattage 41.6 34.0 32.0 27.4 22.0 23.1 18.6 20.0 16.0 17.6 14.4

System Lumens 3,555 3,565 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456

System Efficacy (lm/W) 85.4 104.9 108.0 134.5 157.1 159.6 186.3 184.5 215.4 209.3 240.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 86 81 82 81 80 81 80 81 80 81 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 4,020 4,100 4,100 5,000 4,100 5,000 4,100 5,000 4,100 5,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 50 54 50 54 50 54 50 54 50 54 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,055 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541

Lamp Price (2022$) $278.36 $35.06 $14.63 $11.11 $4.28 $9.88 $3.81 $9.66 $3.72 $9.44 $3.64 

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $133.10 $17.50 $8.13 $5.79 $2.38 $5.15 $2.11 $5.03 $2.07 $4.92 $2.02 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $587.35 $70.12 $29.26 $22.22 $8.56 $19.76 $7.61 $19.31 $7.44 $18.89 $7.28 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $47.64 $6.61 $3.93 $3.17 $2.46 $3.01 $2.39 $2.98 $2.38 $2.95 $2.37 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $165.20 $19.67 $8.47 $6.03 $2.48 $5.36 $2.20 $5.24 $2.15 $5.12 $2.11 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $13.40 $1.85 $1.14 $0.86 $0.71 $0.82 $0.69 $0.81 $0.69 $0.80 $0.69 
Final

63

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-ft Linear LED Luminaire to Replace 2-Lamp Systems

1. N/A because the lamp and fixture are both included in the luminaire.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 51.5 50.0 49.0 44.0 35.0 35.6 28.3 29.9 23.8 25.8 20.5

System Lumens 4,818 4,673 5,024 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800

System Efficacy (lm/W) 93.6 93.5 102.5 120.5 137.1 148.8 169.3 177.2 201.7 205.5 233.9

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 84 79 80 79 80 79 80 79 80 79 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,500 3,650 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 67 53 54 53 50 53 50 53 50 53 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,055 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) $723.96 $188.00 $144.85 $152.54 $207.80 $127.58 $173.80 $118.37 $161.25 $109.57 $149.27

Ballast Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $150.25 $40.23 $57.66 $57.54 $86.58 $24.06 $36.21 $22.33 $33.59 $20.67 $31.10

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $762.57 $226.61 $322.70 $338.08 $448.60 $160.58 $206.80 $151.37 $194.25 $142.57 $182.27

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $46.16 $14.67 $11.30 $12.01 $16.52 $10.40 $14.19 $9.80 $13.33 $9.23 $12.51

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $158.27 $48.49 $64.23 $63.76 $93.46 $30.29 $43.08 $28.55 $40.47 $26.89 $37.97

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $9.58 $3.14 $2.25 $2.27 $3.44 $1.96 $2.96 $1.85 $2.78 $1.74 $2.61
Final

64

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-ft T8 F28 High-efficiency and High-output in 2-Lamp System with Occupancy 

Sensor

1. Only a typical dataset is provided because these lamps all have similar efficacies.

2. Data and assumptions taken from the 2018 SSL Forecast. The report states that efficacy improvements for T8 lamps are not expected in the future and that cost for all 

commercial fixtures is expected to decrease between 0.1%-0.6% per year. We use 0.5% per year here.

3. Assumes occupancy sensor reduces hours of use by 36% (NCI, 2019)

DATA1

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average2 Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0

Lamp Lumens 2,560 2,682 2,682 2,682 2,682 2,682

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 91 96 96 96 96 96

System Wattage 50.3 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4

System Lumens 4,506 4,774 4,774 4,774 4,774 4,774

System Efficacy (lm/W) 90 86 86 86 86 86

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%

CRI 85 84 84 84 84 84

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 48 48 48 48 48

Annual Operating Hours (h/y)3 4,055 2,920 1,869 1,869 1,869 1,869

Lamp Price (2022$) $11.17 $5.40 $5.29 $5.08 $4.84 $4.60 

Ballast Price (2022$) $19.56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $35.20 $77.05 $75.53 $72.56 $69.01 $65.64 

Occupancy Sensor Price (2022$) N/A N/A $161.34 $161.34 $161.34 $161.34 

Disposal Costs (2022$) $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $4.36 $2.01 $1.97 $1.90 $1.80 $1.71 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $30.12 $32.75 $92.26 $91.00 $89.49 $88.06 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $104.54 $121.06 $275.16 $271.98 $268.19 $264.58 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $9.03 $2.54 $1.44 $1.43 $1.41 $1.39 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $23.20 $25.36 $57.64 $56.97 $56.18 $55.42 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $2.00 $0.53 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.29 
Final

65

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-ft T8 F28 High-efficiency and High-output in 2-Lamp System with Specular 

Reflector

1. Only a typical dataset is provided because these lamps all have similar efficacies.

2. Data and assumptions taken from the 2018 SSL Forecast. The report states that efficacy improvements for T8 lamps are not expected in the future and that cost for all 

commercial fixtures is expected to decrease between 0.1%-0.6% per year. We use 0.5% per year here.

3. Specular reflector is expected to add 12% luminaire efficiency (LRC, 1992).

DATA1

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average2 Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0

Lamp Lumens 2,560 2,682 2,682 2,682 2,682 2,682

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 91.4 95.8 95.8 95.8 95.8 95.8

System Wattage 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4

System Lumens3 4,506 4,774 5,347 5,347 5,347 5,347

System Efficacy (lm/W) 81 86 97 97 97 97

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%

CRI 85 84 84 84 84 84

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 48 48 48 48 48

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 2,920 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055

Lamp Price (2022$) $11.17 $5.40 $5.29 $5.08 $4.84 $4.60 

Ballast Price (2022$) $19.56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $35.20 $77.05 $75.53 $72.56 $69.01 $65.64 

Reflector Price (2022$) N/A N/A $44.53 $44.53 $44.53 $44.53 

Disposal Costs (2022$) $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $4.36 $2.01 $1.97 $1.90 $1.80 $1.71 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $30.12 $32.75 $48.71 $47.45 $45.94 $44.51 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $104.54 $121.06 $158.35 $155.17 $151.38 $147.77 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $6.50 $3.53 $3.13 $3.10 $3.06 $3.02 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $23.20 $25.36 $29.62 $29.02 $28.31 $27.64 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $1.44 $0.74 $0.59 $0.58 $0.57 $0.56 
Final

66

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-ft T8 F28 High-efficiency and High-output in 2-Lamp System with Occupancy 

Sensor and Specular Reflector

1. Only a typical dataset is provided because these lamps all have similar efficacies.

2. Data and assumptions taken from the 2018 SSL Forecast. The report states that efficacy improvements for T8 lamps are not expected in the future and that cost for all 

commercial fixtures is expected to decrease between 0.1%-0.6% per year. We use 0.5% per year here.

3. Assumes occupancy sensor reduces hours of use by 36% (NCI, 2019). Specular reflector is expected to add 12% luminaire efficiency(LRC, 1992).

DATA1

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average2 Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0

Lamp Lumens 2,560 2,682 2,682 2,682 2,682 2,682

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 91.4 95.8 95.8 95.8 95.8 95.8

System Wattage 50.3 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4

System Lumens3 4,506 4,774 5,347 5,347 5,347 5,347

System Efficacy (lm/W) 89.6 86.2 96.6 96.6 96.6 96.6

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%

CRI 85 84 84 84 84 84

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 48 48 48 48 48

Annual Operating Hours (h/y)3 4,055 2,920 1,869 1,869 1,869 1,869

Lamp Price (2022$) $11.17 $5.40 $5.29 $5.08 $4.84 $4.60 

Ballast Price (2022$) $19.56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $35.20 $77.05 $75.53 $72.56 $69.01 $65.64 

Reflector Price (2022$) N/A N/A $44.53 $44.53 $44.53 $44.53 

Occupancy Sensor Price (2022$) N/A N/A $161.34 $161.34 $161.34 $161.34 

Disposal Costs (2022$) $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $4.36 $2.01 $1.97 $1.90 $1.80 $1.71 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $30.12 $32.75 $108.87 $107.61 $106.10 $104.66 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $104.54 $121.06 $319.69 $316.51 $312.72 $309.11 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $9.03 $2.54 $1.44 $1.43 $1.41 $1.39 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $23.20 $25.36 $59.79 $59.20 $58.49 $57.81 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $2.00 $0.53 $0.27 $0.27 $0.26 $0.26 
Final

67

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

This section characterizes commercial linear fixtures that house two 8ft long linear lamps and their integrated luminaire equivalents. The technologies available for this system are linear 

fluorescent and LED. 

• Linear fluorescent options are T5, T8, and T12 lamps. T5 lamps are approximately 40% narrower than T8 lamps and almost 60% narrower than T12 lamps. This narrowness allows T5 lamps 

to be coated with higher quality, more efficient phosphor blends than larger diameter lamps, resulting in a more efficacious lamp. The compact size of T5 lamps also permits greater flexibility 

in lighting design and construction.

• LED options for linear fixtures include replacement lamps that can fit directly into an existing fixture and fully integratedluminaires that can be used to replace existing fixtures. LED 

replacement lamps are also known as TLEDs. Type A TLEDs can be installed with existing ballasts and Type B and C TLEDs require the ballast to be disconnected. Replacement lamps are 

only sold to go into existing fixtures. If a new fixture is to be installed, a fully integrated LED luminaire is a more cost effective and efficient option. Because LED luminaires are fully 

integrated, they do not have lamp or fixture efficiency losses associated with ballasts and fixture optics. For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year 

fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• Linear lamps often have a nominal CCT rating of 3,500K, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 4,000K, and 4,100K (neutral white) are also common. 5,000K (daylight) lamps are available as 

well. When replacing a light bulb, it is important to choose a product with a similar CCT value to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100, but for CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. 

CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination, with high CRI products being preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. 

Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these very specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of 2 lamps, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamps 

which are sold only as a replacement for use in an existing fixture. There are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient and cost effective for new installations or fixture retrofits. 

Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore typical lamp prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and 

features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and 

the annual operating hours of 4147 hours/year for commercial 8ft linear systems (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

Legislation:

• Beginning July 14, 2012 (or July 14, 2014, for T8 700-series phosphor lamps), DOE fluorescent lamp standards required a minimum efficacy of 89 lm/W. Although the amended performancebased standards do not explicitly prohibit T12 lamps, no T12 lamps met the standard at the time of its announcement. Since then,however, T12 lamps meeting the standard have entered the 

market.

• California's Title 24 mandates the use of electronic ballasts with high efficacy luminaires (including fluorescent) of 13 W or higher (CEC, 2005).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover commercial linear luminaires (ENERGY STAR, 2020). 
Final

68

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume the manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and 

price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050: 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

T8 F59 Typical Efficiency 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T8 F59 High Efficiency 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T8 F96 High Output 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

69

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-ft T8 F59 Typical Efficiency in a 2-Lamp System

1. From 2018 to 2050, fixture (and fixture price) includes ballast.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0

Lamp Lumens 5,430 5,788 5,900 5,905 5,950 5,905 5,950 5,905 5,950 5,905 5,950

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 92.0 98.1 100.0 100.1 100.8 100.1 100.8 100.1 100.8 100.1 100.8

System Wattage 106.8 111.6 112.9 112.9 112.9 112.9 112.9 112.9 112.9 112.9 112.9

System Lumens 9,448 10,071 10,384 10,393 10,472 10,393 10,472 10,393 10,472 10,393 10,472

System Efficacy (lm/W) 88.5 90.3 92.0 92.1 92.8 92.1 92.8 92.1 92.8 92.1 92.8

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92%

CRI 82 84 85 84 85 84 85 84 85 84 85

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 4,100 3,500 4,100 3,500 4,100 3,500 4,100 3,500 4,100 3,500

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 21 24 21 24 21 24 21 24 21 24

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,147 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066

Lamp Price (2022$) $14.70 $21.80 $23.58 $21.37 $22.84 $20.53 $21.94 $19.53 $20.87 $18.57 $19.85 

Ballast Price (2022$) $23.26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 $27.20 $117.38 $115.06 $115.06 $115.06 $110.54 $110.54 $105.13 $105.13 $99.99 $99.99 

Disposal Costs (2022$) $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $2.28 $3.77 $4.00 $3.62 $3.84 $3.48 $3.69 $3.31 $3.51 $3.15 $3.34 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $12.40 $15.99 $15.62 $15.18 $15.35 $14.59 $14.75 $13.87 $14.03 $13.20 $13.34 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $114.60 $238.20 $247.36 $242.94 $245.88 $236.74 $239.56 $229.33 $232.01 $222.28 $224.83 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $8.98 $9.66 $8.51 $9.08 $8.32 $8.83 $8.09 $8.54 $7.82 $8.26 $7.55 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $12.13 $23.65 $23.82 $23.38 $23.48 $22.78 $22.88 $22.07 $22.16 $21.39 $21.47 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.95 $0.96 $0.82 $0.87 $0.79 $0.85 $0.77 $0.82 $0.75 $0.79 $0.72 
Final

70

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-ft T8 F96 High-Output in a 2-Lamp System

1. From 2018 to 2050, fixture (and fixture price) includes ballast.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0

Lamp Lumens 7600 8134 7710 8134 8200 8134 8200 8134 8200 8134 8200

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 88.4 94.6 89.7 94.6 95.3 94.6 95.3 94.6 95.3 94.6 95.3

System Wattage 148.4 183.6 183.6 183.6 183.6 183.6 183.6 183.6 183.6 183.6 183.6

System Lumens 12,026 15,455 14,649 15,455 15,580 15,455 15,580 15,455 15,580 15,455 15,580

System Efficacy (lm/W) 81.0 84.2 79.8 84.2 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.2 84.9

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 92% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89%

CRI 78 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 4,100 3,500 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 18 22 18 22 30 22 30 22 30 22 30

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,147 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066 3,066

Lamp Price (2022$) $20.22 $30.62 $16.51 $30.02 $73.42 $28.84 $70.53 $27.43 $67.09 $26.09 $63.81 

Ballast Price (2022$) $18.55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 $27.20 $117.38 $115.06 $115.06 $115.06 $110.54 $110.54 $105.13 $105.13 $99.99 $99.99 

Disposal Costs (2022$) $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 $0.96 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $2.24 $3.77 $2.14 $3.69 $8.95 $3.55 $8.60 $3.37 $8.18 $3.21 $7.78 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $21.99 $11.56 $10.11 $11.33 $16.81 $10.88 $16.15 $10.35 $15.36 $9.85 $14.61 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $143.19 $255.85 $233.22 $260.24 $347.04 $253.36 $336.75 $245.13 $324.44 $237.31 $312.74 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $13.48 $11.68 $8.94 $11.08 $16.99 $10.75 $16.40 $10.35 $15.70 $9.98 $15.03 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $17.89 $16.55 $15.92 $16.84 $22.27 $16.39 $21.61 $15.86 $20.82 $15.36 $20.07 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $1.12 $0.76 $0.61 $0.72 $1.09 $0.70 $1.05 $0.67 $1.01 $0.65 $0.96 
Final

71

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-ft Linear LED Replacement Lamp for a 2 Lamp System

1. N/A because a fixture and an LED replacement lamp would not be purchased separately for a new installation or retrofit when there are integrated LED luminaires that are more 

efficient and cost effective. These lamps are sold only as replacements to go into existing fixtures. 

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage N/A 35.7 34.0 39.0 40.0 32.9 33.7 28.4 29.2 25.1 25.7

Lamp Lumens N/A 3,975 4,200 4,960 5,500 4,960 5,500 4,960 5,500 4,960 5,500

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) N/A 111.2 123.5 127.2 137.5 150.8 163.1 174.4 188.6 197.9 213.9

System Wattage N/A 71.5 68.0 78.0 80.0 65.8 67.5 56.9 58.3 50.1 51.4

System Lumens N/A 7,473 8,064 9,523 10,560 9,523 10,560 9,523 10,560 9,523 10,560

System Efficacy (lm/W) N/A 104.5 118.6 122.1 132.0 144.8 156.5 167.4 181.0 189.9 205.4

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI N/A 80 82 81 82 81 82 81 82 81 82

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) N/A 5,000 4,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 5,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) N/A 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) N/A 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541

Lamp Price (2022$) N/A $89.59 $33.11 $37.22 $41.44 $32.35 $36.02 $31.71 $35.30 $31.11 $34.64 

Ballast Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $19.00 $7.88 $7.50 $7.53 $6.52 $6.55 $6.39 $6.42 $6.27 $6.30 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $23.98 $8.21 $7.82 $7.85 $6.79 $6.82 $6.66 $6.69 $6.53 $6.56 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Total Installed Cost (2022$) N/A $179.18 $66.22 $74.44 $82.88 $64.70 $72.04 $63.42 $70.61 $62.22 $69.28 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) N/A $14.22 $6.00 $6.58 $7.18 $5.89 $6.41 $5.80 $6.31 $5.71 $6.21 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $45.08 $8.21 $7.82 $7.85 $6.79 $6.82 $6.66 $6.69 $6.53 $6.56 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $3.58 $0.74 $0.69 $0.68 $0.62 $0.61 $0.61 $0.60 $0.60 $0.59 
Final

72

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-ft Linear LED Luminaire Replacement for a 2-Lamp System

1. N/A because the lamp and fixture are both included in the luminaire.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage1

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage N/A 73.0 90.0 78.0 72.0 64.6 59.6 55.2 50.9 48.1 44.4

System Lumens N/A 8,000 8,200 9,465 10,400 9,465 10,400 9,465 10,400 9,465 10,400

System Efficacy (lm/W) N/A 109.6 91.1 121.3 144.4 146.5 174.4 171.6 204.3 196.6 234.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI N/A 90 80 81 80 81 80 81 80 81 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) N/A 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) N/A 75 50 73 100 73 100 73 100 73 100

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) N/A 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) N/A $759.16 $119.99 $142.48 $153.91 $109.90 $118.71 $96.00 $103.70 $82.68 $89.31 

Ballast Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm)

1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $80.00 $14.63 $15.05 $14.80 $11.61 $11.41 $10.14 $9.97 $8.73 $8.59 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) N/A $708.20 $206.52 $229.01 $240.44 $196.42 $205.24 $182.53 $190.23 $169.20 $175.83 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) N/A $39.16 $22.40 $17.46 $13.53 $14.40 $11.11 $13.09 $10.08 $11.84 $9.10 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $88.53 $25.18 $24.20 $23.12 $20.75 $19.73 $19.28 $18.29 $17.88 $16.91 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $4.89 $2.73 $1.84 $1.30 $1.52 $1.07 $1.38 $0.97 $1.25 $0.87 
Final

73

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Low-Bay Lighting Systems

The commercial low bay lighting characterized in this report is a one-lamp and one-ballast system in a low/high bay fixture that emits between 6,000 and 10,000 system lumens. Low 

bay lighting is defined as “interior lighting where the roof trusses or ceiling height is less than 25ft. above the floor”(IESNA, 2000). For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture 

renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• Low bay conventional lighting technologies, such as metal halide and sodium vapor lamps, provide higher efficacy ranging from 80 lm/W to 100 lm/W. Older, mercury vapor 

lamps have much lower efficacy at approximately 40 lm/W.

• CCT and CRI values range broadly based on technology type for low bay products.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED luminaires, 

which are sold as one integrated system. Many factors influence the price of LED luminaires, including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical 

luminaire prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp 

life and the annual operating hours for commercial low-bay systems (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover low/high bay luminaires (ENERGY STAR, 2012). 
Final

74

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Low-Bay Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus would be on improving efficacy, lifetime, 

and price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• (Navigant, 2019). Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost 

characteristics of conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in 

terms of performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent 

and fluorescent) and established market competitors 

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Mercury Vapor 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

Metal Halide 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

Sodium Vapor 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

75

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Mercury Vapor Low-Bay

1. Only a typical dataset is provided because these lamps all have similar efficacies.

2. EPAct 2005 limited the sale and production of mercury vapor ballasts since 2008, and by 2030 there is no expected market for these products.

DATA1

2012 2018 2022 20302 20402 20502

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 175.0 175.0 175.0 N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 7,400 7,400 7,400 N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 42.3 42.3 44.0 N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 205.9 205.9 205.9 N/A N/A N/A

System Lumens 7,400 7,400 7,400 N/A N/A N/A

System Efficacy (lm/W) 35.9 35.9 35.9 N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Efficiency 85% 85% 85% N/A N/A N/A

CRI 33 33 33 N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,700 3,700 3,700 N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 24 24 N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 3,687 3,687 3,687 N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $13.96 $13.55 $13.80 N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Price (2022$) $51.91 $50.37 $49.48 N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $38.73 $37.58 $36.83 N/A N/A N/A

Disposal Cost (2022$) $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $1.89 $1.83 $1.86 N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $14.13 $13.72 $13.53 N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 N/A N/A N/A

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.5 1.5 1.5 N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $220.43 $217.33 $199.11 N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $8.31 $8.24 $7.42 N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $29.79 $29.37 $26.91 N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $1.12 $1.11 $1.00 N/A N/A N/A
Final

76

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Metal Halide Low-Bay

1. Only a typical dataset is provided because these lamps all have similar efficacies.

DATA1

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Lamp Lumens 8,084 8,331 8,500 8,500 8,500 8,500

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 80.8 83.3 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0

System Wattage 113.6 113.6 113.6 113.6 113.6 113.6

System Lumens 7,400 7,400 7,400 7,400 7,400 7,400

System Efficacy (lm/W) 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.1

Ballast Efficiency 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88%

CRI 80 80 80 80 80 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 15 15 15 15 15 15

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760

Lamp Price (2022$) $17.97 $17.44 $17.10 $16.43 $15.62 $14.86 

Ballast Price (2022$) $57.97 $56.26 $49.48 $47.54 $45.21 $43.00 

Fixture Price (2022$) $38.73 $37.58 $36.83 $35.39 $33.66 $32.01 

Disposal Cost (2022$) $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $2.22 $2.09 $2.01 $1.93 $1.84 $1.75 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $15.50 $15.04 $13.97 $13.43 $12.77 $12.14 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $230.51 $227.11 $202.41 $198.35 $193.49 $188.87 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $14.56 $14.43 $12.93 $12.76 $12.56 $12.37 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $31.15 $30.69 $27.35 $26.80 $26.15 $25.52 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $1.97 $1.95 $1.75 $1.72 $1.70 $1.67 
Final

77

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Sodium Vapor Low-Bay

1. Only a typical dataset is provided because these lamps all have similar efficacies.

DATA1

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Lamp Lumens 8,550 8,550 9,300 9,300 9,300 9,300

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 85.5 85.5 93.0 93.0 93.0 93.0

System Wattage 128.0 128.0 128.0 128.0 128.0 128.0

System Lumens 8,550 8,550 9,300 9,300 9,300 9,300

System Efficacy (lm/W) 66.8 66.8 72.6 72.6 72.6 72.6

Ballast Efficiency 78% 78% 78% 78% 78% 78%

CRI 22 22 22 22 22 22

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 24 24 24 24 24

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 3,614 3,614 3,614 3,614 3,614 3,614

Lamp Price (2022$) $54.04 $52.44 $13.14 $12.62 $12.01 $11.42 

Ballast Price (2022$) $56.14 $54.48 $43.26 $41.56 $39.53 $37.60 

Fixture Price (2022$) $128.14 $124.35 $121.88 $117.09 $111.36 $105.92 

Disposal Cost (2022$) $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $6.32 $6.13 $1.41 $1.36 $1.29 $1.23 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $27.87 $27.05 $19.17 $18.42 $17.52 $16.66 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $354.16 $347.10 $277.28 $270.27 $261.90 $253.93 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $14.18 $13.93 $7.17 $7.10 $7.00 $6.91 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $41.42 $40.60 $29.81 $29.06 $28.16 $27.30 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $1.66 $1.63 $0.77 $0.76 $0.75 $0.74 
Final

78

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial LED Low-Bay Luminaire

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 68.1 84.0 40.0 73.0 76.0 61.2 63.7 52.7 54.9 46.3 48.2

System Lumens 4,877 10,000 5,000 10,000 12,000 10,000 12,000 10,000 12,000 10,000 12,000

System Efficacy (lm/W) 71.6 119.0 125.0 137.0 157.9 163.4 188.4 189.7 218.7 216.0 248.9

Ballast Efficiency N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 85 78 84 81 80 81 84 81 84 81 81

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 50 74 75 65 60 65 60 65 60 65 60

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) $903.82 $281.00 $63.99 $145.46 $285.89 $123.82 $243.37 $111.24 $218.63 $99.09 $194.75 

Ballast Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm)

1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $185.31 $28.10 $12.80 $14.55 $23.82 $12.38 $20.28 $11.12 $18.22 $9.91 $16.23

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $865.44 $396.83 $162.99 $244.46 $384.89 $222.82 $342.37 $210.24 $317.63 $198.09 $293.75 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $69.95 $37.02 $12.23 $24.24 $45.18 $21.55 $39.45 $19.99 $36.12 $18.48 $32.90 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $177.44 $39.68 $32.60 $24.45 $32.07 $22.28 $28.53 $21.02 $26.47 $19.81 $24.48 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $14.34 $3.70 $2.45 $2.42 $3.77 $2.16 $3.29 $2.00 $3.01 $1.85 $2.74 

1. N/A because the lamp and fixture are both included in the luminaire.
Final

79

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial High-Bay Lighting Systems

The commercial high-bay lighting characterized in this report is a one-lamp and one-ballast system in a low/high bay fixture that emits greater than 10,000 system lumens. High-bay 

lighting is defined as “interior lighting where the roof trusses or ceiling height is greater than 25ft. above the floor” (IESNA, 2000). For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture 

renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• High bay conventional lighting technologies, such as metal halide and sodium vapor lamps, provide higher efficacy ranging from 80 lm/W to 100 lm/W. Older, mercury vapor 

lamps have much lower efficacy at approximately 40 lm/W.

• CCT and CRI values range broadly based on technology type for high bay products.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED luminaires, 

which are sold as one integrated system. Many factors influence the price of LED luminaires including, CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical 

luminaire prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp 

life and the annual operating hours for commercial high bay systems (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover low/high bay luminaires (ENERGY STAR, 2012). 
Final

80

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial High-Bay Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus would be on improving efficacy, lifetime 

and price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Mercury Vapor 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

Metal Halide 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

Sodium Vapor 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

81

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Mercury Vapor High-Bay

1. Only a typical dataset is provided because these lamps all have similar efficacies.

DATA1

2012 2018 2022 20302 20402 20502

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 400.0 400.0 400.0 N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 15,800 15,800 21,000 N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 39.5 39.5 52.5 N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 449.4 449.4 449.4 N/A N/A N/A

System Lumens 15,800 15,800 21,000 N/A N/A N/A

System Efficacy (lm/W) 35.2 35.2 46.7 N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Efficiency 89% 89% 89% N/A N/A N/A

CRI 50 50 50 N/A N/A N/A

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,900 3,900 3,900 N/A N/A N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 24 24 N/A N/A N/A

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 3,687 3,687 3,687 N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Price (2022$) $23.81 $23.10 $28.93 N/A N/A N/A

Ballast Price (2022$) $55.39 $53.75 $64.35 N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $106.65 $103.49 $101.43 N/A N/A N/A

Disposal Cost (2022$) $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $1.51 $1.46 $1.38 N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $11.76 $11.41 $9.27 N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 N/A N/A N/A

Labor System Installation (hours) 2.0 2.0 2.0 N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $340.29 $334.78 $326.71 N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $9.82 $9.71 $9.74 N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $21.54 $21.19 $15.56 N/A N/A N/A

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.62 $0.61 $0.46 N/A N/A N/A
Final

82

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Metal Halide High-Bay

1. Only a typical dataset is provided because these lamps all have similar efficacies.

DATA1

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 400.0 400.0 400.0 400.0 400.0 400.0

Lamp Lumens 32,000 32,972 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 80.0 82.4 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0

System Wattage 444.4 444.4 444.4 444.4 444.4 444.4

System Lumens 32,000 32,972 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000

System Efficacy (lm/W) 72.0 74.2 94.5 94.5 94.5 94.5

Ballast Efficiency 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%

CRI 80 80 80 80 80 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 20 20 20 20 20 20

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760

Lamp Price (2022$) $34.95 $33.91 $42.15 $40.49 $38.51 $36.63 

Ballast Price (2022$) $55.39 $53.75 $64.35 $61.82 $58.80 $55.92 

Fixture Price (2022$) $248.32 $248.32 $248.32 $238.56 $226.90 $215.80 

Disposal Cost (2022$) $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $1.09 $1.03 $1.00 $0.96 $0.92 $0.87 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $10.58 $10.19 $8.45 $8.12 $7.72 $7.34 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $493.10 $490.43 $486.82 $472.87 $456.21 $440.36 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $14.11 $13.91 $14.41 $14.10 $13.72 $13.37 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $15.41 $14.87 $11.59 $11.26 $10.86 $10.48 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.44 $0.42 $0.34 $0.34 $0.33 $0.32 
Final

83

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Sodium Vapor High-Bay

1. Only a typical dataset is provided because these lamps all have similar efficacies.

DATA1

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0

Lamp Lumens 24,300 24,300 28,500 28,500 28,500 28,500

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 97.2 97.2 114.0 114.0 114.0 114.0

System Wattage 297.0 296.6 296.6 296.6 296.6 296.6

System Lumens 24,300 24,300 28,500 28,500 28,500 28,500

System Efficacy (lm/W) 81.8 81.9 96.1 96.1 96.1 96.1

Ballast Efficiency 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84%

CRI 22 22 22 22 22 22

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 24 24 24 24 24

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 3,614 3,614 3,614 3,614 3,614 3,614

Lamp Price (2022$) $53.71 $52.12 $20.37 $19.57 $18.61 $17.70 

Ballast Price (2022$) $90.16 $87.49 $90.09 $86.55 $82.32 $78.29 

Fixture Price (2022$) $280.71 $272.39 $266.98 $256.49 $243.95 $232.02 

Disposal Cost (2022$) $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $2.21 $2.14 $0.71 $0.69 $0.65 $0.62 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $17.47 $16.95 $13.24 $12.72 $12.10 $11.51 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $579.02 $566.44 $509.44 $494.61 $476.88 $460.02 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $14.13 $13.89 $8.26 $8.14 $8.00 $7.86 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $23.83 $23.31 $17.88 $17.35 $16.73 $16.14 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.58 $0.57 $0.29 $0.29 $0.28 $0.28 
Final

84

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial T5 4xF54 HO High-Bay

DATA1

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0

Lamp Lumens 4,850 4,850 4,273 4,750 4,273 4,750 4,273 4,750 4,273 4,750

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 89.8 89.8 79.1 88.0 79.1 88.0 79.1 88.0 79.1 88.0

System Wattage 233.8 233.8 233.8 233.8 233.8 233.8 233.8 233.8 233.8 233.8

System Lumens 19,400 19,400 17,092 19,000 17,092 19,000 17,092 19,000 17,092 19,000

System Efficacy (lm/W) 83.0 83.0 73.1 81.3 73.1 81.3 73.1 81.3 73.1 81.3

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92%

CRI 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042

Lamp Price (2022$) $8.45 $8.20 $4.70 $13.65 $4.51 $13.11 $4.29 $12.47 $4.08 $11.86 

Ballast Price (2022$) $33.43 $32.44 $32.17 $32.17 $30.91 $30.91 $29.39 $29.39 $27.96 $27.96 

Fixture Price (2022$) $129.23 $125.40 $122.91 $122.91 $118.08 $118.08 $112.31 $112.31 $106.82 $106.82 

Disposal Cost (2022$) $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $1.74 $1.69 $1.10 $2.87 $1.06 $2.76 $1.00 $2.63 $0.96 $2.50 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $10.13 $9.83 $10.17 $11.04 $9.77 $10.60 $9.30 $10.08 $8.84 $9.59 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $325.54 $320.47 $291.78 $300.73 $285.50 $294.10 $277.99 $286.17 $270.86 $278.63 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $12.51 $12.35 $8.68 $14.47 $8.56 $14.12 $8.42 $13.71 $8.29 $13.32 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $16.78 $16.52 $17.07 $15.83 $16.70 $15.48 $16.26 $15.06 $15.85 $14.66 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.65 $0.64 $0.51 $0.76 $0.50 $0.74 $0.49 $0.72 $0.48 $0.70 
Final

85

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial LED High-Bay Luminaire

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 212.2 167.0 150.0 137.8 130.0 115.5 109.0 99.4 93.9 87.4 82.5

System Lumens 18,915 18,797 18,500 18,500 18,900 18,500 18,900 18,500 18,900 18,500 18,900

System Efficacy (lm/W) 89.1 112.6 123.3 134.3 145.4 160.2 173.4 186.0 201.4 211.7 229.2

Ballast Efficiency N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 74 78 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 70 67 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) $2,842.05 $448.43 $177.54 $195.81 $234.20 $162.12 $193.90 $148.87 $178.06 $136.20 $162.90

Ballast Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm)

1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $150.25 $23.86 $9.60 $10.58 $12.39 $8.76 $10.26 $8.05 $9.42 $7.36 $8.62

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $2,996.49 $602.87 $309.54 $327.81 $366.20 $294.12 $325.90 $280.87 $310.06 $268.20 $294.90 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $173.01 $36.40 $12.51 $13.25 $14.80 $11.89 $13.17 $11.35 $12.53 $10.84 $11.92 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $158.42 $32.07 $16.73 $17.72 $19.38 $15.90 $17.24 $15.18 $16.41 $14.50 $15.60 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $9.15 $1.94 $0.68 $0.72 $0.78 $0.64 $0.70 $0.61 $0.66 $0.59 $0.63 

1. N/A because the lamp and fixture are both included in the luminaire.
Final

86

Refrigeration
Final

87

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Compressor Rack Systems

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Capacity (kBtu/h)1 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,190 930 N/A 1,190 930 1,190 930 1,190 930

Median Store Size (ft2) 46,500 31,997 35,197 35,197 35,197 N/A 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197

Power Input (kW) 162 155 162 160 125 N/A 160 125 160 125 160 125

Annual Energy Use 

(MMWh/y)2 1,497 1,497 1,305 1,232 1,160 N/A 1,232 1,160 1,232 1,160 1,232 1,160

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.00 1.15 1.21 1.29 N/A 1.21 1.29 1.21 1.29 1.21 1.29

Average Life (years) 15 15 15 15 15 N/A 15 15 15 15 15 15

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $630,000 $630,000 $488,000 $625,000 $630,000 N/A $625,000 $630,000 $625,000 $630,000 $625,000 $630,000 

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $525,000 $525,000 $406,667 $525,210 $677,419 N/A $525,210 $677,419 $525,210 $677,419 $525,210 $677,419 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)4 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 N/A $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $2,833 $2,833 $2,833 $2,857 $3,656 N/A $2,857 $3,656 $2,857 $3,656 $2,857 $3,656

1. The total capacity represents the nominal compressor capacity required for the entire refrigeration system of a typical supermarket. This refrigeration system usually includes 

two low temperature racks and two medium temperature racks. For 2018, a 1,200 MBtu/h total cooling capacity is based on a 200-ton estimate for total capacity–80 tons for the 

medium temperature racks and 20 tons for the low temperature racks.

2. Capacity and annual energy consumption for 2022 and beyond are based on market research and Guidehouse estimates.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Maintenance cost includes oil changes, bearing lubrication, filter replacement, and system functionality checks-approximately half a day per rack of labor for technician is 

assumed.
Final

88

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Compressor Rack Systems

• Commercial compressor rack systems that serve commercial supermarket display cases and walk-ins consist of a 

number of parallel-connected compressors located in a separate machine room. By modulating compressor capacity, 

these integrated systems provide higher efficiency and mechanical longevity.

• Rack integrators generally supply a packaged compressor rack for which much of the necessary piping, insulation, 

components, and controls are pre-assembled. 

• A typical supermarket will have 10 to 20 compressors mounted in racks in the 3-horsepower (hp) to 15-hp size range. 

Usually, each rack has three to five compressors serve a series of loads with nearly identical evaporator temperature.

• The duty cycle for compressors is usually in the range of 60% to 70%.

• Energy use and capacity for the Reference Case are projected to remain static over the coming decades because 

commercial compressor racks systems are a mature technology. The Reference Case assumes low R&D efforts because 

it is an established technology.
Final

89

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Condensers

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Capacity (kBtu/h)1 1,680 1,520 1,440 1,440 1,440 N/A 1,440 1,440 1,440 1,440 1,440 1,440

Median Store Size (ft2

) 46,500 31,997 35,197 35,197 35,197 N/A 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197

Power Input (kW) 25 25 18 18 18 N/A 18 18 18 18 18 18

Annual Energy Use (MMWh/y) 120 120 115 106 86 N/A 106 86 106 86 106 86

Indexed Annual Efficiency2 1.00 1.00 1.04 1.13 1.40 N/A 1.13 1.40 1.13 1.40 1.13 1.40

Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 10 10 10 10 10 10

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $54,000 $60,000 $54,000 $60,000 $80,000 N/A $60,000 $80,000 $60,000 $80,000 $60,000 $80,000 

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $32,143 $39,474 $37,500 $41,667 $55,556 N/A $41,667 $55,556 $41,667 $55,556 $41,667 $55,556 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)3 $954 $954 $954 $954 $954 N/A $954 $954 $954 $954 $954 $954 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $0.57 $0.63 $0.66 $0.66 $0.66 N/A $0.66 $0.66 $0.66 $0.66 $0.66 $0.66

1. Total capacity is the total heat rejected (THR) by condensers comprised of two low temperature condensers (THRL = 240 MBtu/h each, suction temperature= -25°F, 

condensing temperature-110°F) and two medium temperature condensers (THRM = 520 MBtu/h each, suction temperature = 15°F, condensing temperature = 115°F); 

ambient temperature = 95°F. (NCI, 2009). For 2022 and beyond, capacity was estimated by Guidehouse.

2. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

3. Maintenance cost includes coil cleaning, leak checking, belt replacement as necessary, and system functionality checks.
Final

90

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Condensers

• Condensers are designed with multiple methods of cooling: air-cooled, water-cooled, and evaporative. These units 

can be single-circuit or a multiple circuit.

• Commercial condensers are remotely located, typically installed on the roof of a supermarket. 

• For use with parallel compressors in supermarkets, air-cooled units are the most commonly used condensers. This 

analysis is based on multiple air-cooled condensers connected to a supermarket refrigeration system comprised of 

two low temperature condensers and two medium temperature condensers. 

• Each compressor rack has a dedicated condenser or a separate circuit of a single common condenser. Condenser 

temperatures of multiple racks are often different. 

• The duty cycle for condensers is usually in the range 50%-70%.

• Energy use is projected to remain static over the coming decades because commercial condensers are a mature 

technology. 
Final

91

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Supermarket Display Cases

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 17,623 11,850 11,850 11,850 11,850 N/A 11,850 11,850 11,850 11,850 11,850 11,850

Median Store Size (ft2

) 46,500 31,997 35,197 35,197 35,197 N/A 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197

Case Length (ft) 12 12 12 12 12 N/A 12 12 12 12 12 12

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)1,2 13,497 10,506 10,506 9,771 9,087 N/A 9,771 9,087 9,771 9,087 9,771 9,087

Annual Energy Use / Case 

Length (kWh/ft) 1,125 876 876 814 757 N/A 814 757 814 757 814 757

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.28 1.28 1.38 1.49 N/A 1.38 1.49 1.38 1.49 1.38 1.49

Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $8,510 $10,650 $7,265 $9,500 $10,680 N/A $9,500 $10,680 $9,500 $10,680 $9,500 $10,680 

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $10,811 $12,650 $9,265 $11,500 $12,680 N/A $11,500 $12,680 $11,500 $12,680 $11,500 $12,680 

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 613 1,068 782 970 1,070 N/A 970 1,070 970 1,070 970 1,070

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)4 $940 $940 $940 $940 $940 N/A $940 $940 $940 $940 $940 $940 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $53.34 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 N/A $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32

1. For 2022 and beyond, energy consumption and cost values were estimated using shipment-weighted averages reported in DOE’s 2014 CRE Final Rule Technical Support Document (TSD) 

for equipment commonly used as display cases. DOE’s updated conservation standard went into effect in 2017, so units sold in 2018 are assumed to comply with this standard. 

2. For consistency with DOE rulemaking practices, Supermarket Display Case Energy Use reported above includes energy use of the compressor racks and condensers. To avoid double 

counting, do not add Energy Use from the Compressor Rack or Condenser Systems tabs if calculating total energy consumption.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Maintenance cost includes preventative maintenance costs such as cleaning evaporator coils, drain pans, fans, and intake screensas well as lamp replacements and other lighting 

maintenance activities. After 2012, these values are based on a reported maintenance and repair cost of $220 per unit for preventative maintenance plus approximately $60 per linear foot 

for additional repair and maintenance.
Final

92

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Supermarket Display Cases

Equipment Description Standards Equation (2012) Standards Equation (2017)

Vertical Open Cooler (VOP.RC.M) 0.82xTDA+4.07 0.64xTDA+4.07

Semi-Vertical Open Cooler (SVO.RC.M) 0.83xTDA+3.18 0.66xTDA+3.18

Horizontal Open Cooler (HZO.RC.M) 0.35xTDA+2.88 0.35xTDA+2.88

Transparent-Doored Cooler (VCT.RC.M) 0.22xTDA+1.95 0.15xTDA+1.95

Deli Display Cooler (SOC.RC.M) 0.51xTDA+0.11 0.44xTDA+0.11

Transparent-Doored Freezer (VCT.RC.L) 0.56xTDA+2.61 0.49xTDA+2.61

Horizontal Open Freezer (HZO.RC.L) 0.57xTDA+6.88 0.55xTDA+6.88

• DOE set federal energy efficiency standards for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment (CRE) in 2009. These standards 

set maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per day, for display cases manufactured sold in the 

United States on or after January 1, 2012. 

• DOE updated its Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment in 2014 for equipment 

sold on or after March 27, 2017. 

• The table below lists equipment used as supermarket display cases and their corresponding Energy Conservation 

Standard levels. The maximum allowable daily energy consumption for each equipment class is a linear function of 

Total Display Area (TDA).
Final

93

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Supermarket Display Cases

• According to CBECS 2018 microdata, the average building size for food sale building type is 31,997.

• Unit energy consumption for 2022 and beyond is estimated using a shipment-weighted average by efficiency level 

and equipment class, using data in DOE’s 2014 CRE Final Rule TSD with updated analysis from Guidehouse in 2016. 

The equipment classes analyzed are listed in the table on the previous slide.

• Supermarket refrigeration systems consist of refrigerated display cases, condensing units, and centralized compressor 

racks.

• A typical supermarket display case contains lighting, evaporators, evaporator fans, piping, insulation, valves, and 

controls. 

• The efficiency of supermarket display cases can be increased through the use of improved evaporator coils, larger 

evaporators, higher efficiency evaporator fan blades, high efficiency doors, LED lighting, and improved insulation.

• Energy use is projected to remain static over the coming decades because supermarket display cases are a mature 

technology. 
Final

94

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Refrigerators

1. EPACT 2005 energy standards went into effect in 2010. 2022 low efficiency cost and energy consumption values are based on minimum compliance with this standard. Unless otherwise 

noted, all other cases are based on shipment-weighted averages solid- and transparent-doored units reported in the 2014 CRE TSD.DOE’s updated Energy Conservation standards went 

into effect in 2017; therefore, compliance with this standard is assumed for 2022 and beyond. 

2. The ENERGY STAR category is based on a shipment weighted average of solid- and transparent-doored units that are minimally compliant with ENERGY STAR v3, effective October 1, 

2014. Units compliant with ENERGY STAR are found to be the most efficient reach-in refrigeration equipment on the market in 2022.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Installation cost for 2012 is based on NCI 2009 report that assumes a cost of $863. Installation cost for 2022 and beyond is based DOE’s 2014 CRE Final Rule and additional analysis by 

Guidehouse, which assumes an installation cost of $878 for self-contained equipment.

5. Maintenance costs after 2012 are based on DOE's CRE 2014 Final Rule TSD, which reports $35 annual preventative maintenance, per unit, per year, plus approximately $40 per linear 

foot, per year of additional repair and maintenance costs for the units characterized.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 2,929 2,400 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349

Size (ft3) 49 49 46 46 46 47 46 46 46 46 46 46

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y) 2,340 2,222 1,935 1,351 810 810 1,351 810 1,351 810 1,351 810

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/y/ft3)

1 48 45 42 29 18 17 29 18 29 18 29 18

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.05 1.21 1.73 2.89 2.89 1.73 2.89 1.73 2.89 1.73 2.89

Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $2,624 $2,403 $2,728 $2,780 $3,021 $3,021 $2,780 $3,021 $2,780 $3,021 $2,780 $3,021 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $3,454 $3,282 $3,591 $3,643 $3,884 $3,884 $3,643 $3,884 $3,643 $3,884 $3,643 $3,884

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $1,179 $1,368 $1,529 $1,551 $1,654 $1,654 $1,551 $1,654 $1,551 $1,654 $1,551 $1,654

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)5 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $186 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $63 $77 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79
Final

• The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT 2005) set maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per 

day, for commercial reach-in refrigerators that went into effect on January 1, 2010. The daily energy consumption is 

based on the volume of the unit (V) in ft3.

• In 2014, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for reach-in refrigerators, effective March 27, 2017. Both 

standards are reported in the table below.

• In 2013, EPA updated its ENERGY STAR specifications for reach-in refrigerators, effective March 27, 2017. These 

standards are also based on the refrigerated volume of the unit.

95

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Refrigerators

Reach-In Refrigerator 

Size

0 < V < 15 15 ≤ V < 30 30 ≤ V < 50 50 ≤ V

Solid Door (VCS.SC.M) 0.022xV+0.97 0.066xV+0.31 0.04xV+1.09 0.024xV+1.89

Glass Door (VCT.SC.M) 0.095xV+0.445 0.05xV+1.12 0.076xV+0.034 0.105xV-1.111

Equipment Class EPCA Standard Level (2010) DOE Standard Level (2017)

Solid Door (VCS.SC.M) 0.10xV+2.04 0.05xV + 1.36

Glass Door (VCT.SC.M) 0.12xV+3.34 0.1xV+0.86
Final

• Unit energy consumption for 2012 and beyond was estimated based on shipment-weighted averages by efficiency 

level and equipment class for 49 ft3 VCS.SC.M and VCT.SC.M units reported in DOE’s 2014 CRE Final Rule TSD with 

updated analysis from Guidehouse in 2016. These units were estimated to comprise approximately 85% and 15% of 

total reach-in refrigerator shipments, respectively.

• The efficiency of commercial reach-in refrigerators can be increased through the use of efficient compressors, efficient 

evaporator fans, efficient condenser fans, electric defrost, and more efficient lighting.

• For this referenced scenario, energy use is projected to remain static over the coming decades because reach-in 

refrigerators are a mature technology. 

96

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Refrigerators
Final

97

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Freezers

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 4,341 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340

Size (ft3

) 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)1 6,023 5,585 5,585 4,847 4,110 4,110 4,847 4,110 4,847 4,110 4,847 4,110

Annual Energy Use / Volume (kWh/y/ft3) 123 114 114 99 84 84 99 84 99 84 99 84

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.08 1.08 1.24 1.47 1.47 1.24 1.47 1.24 1.47 1.24 1.47

Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $2,886 $2,886 $2,886 $3,175 $3,493 $3,493 $3,175 $3,493 $3,175 $3,493 $3,175 $3,493 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $3,749 $3,749 $3,749 $4,125 $4,443 $4,443 $4,125 $4,443 $4,125 $4,443 $4,125 $4,443

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $864 $864 $864 $950 $1,024 $1,024 $950 $1,024 $950 $1,024 $950 $1,024

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)5 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $41.70 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71

1. A 49 ft3 unit was characterized, because it was the representative size selected for DOE’s rulemaking analysis. 

2. The ENERGY STAR category was based on a solid-doored unit that is minimally compliant with ENERGY STAR v3, effective October 1, 2014.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Installation cost for 2012 and 2018 is based on DOE’s on-going CRE rulemaking, which assumes a cost of $863 for self-contained equipment and $950 for 2022 and beyond based on 

analysis from Guidehouse.

5. Maintenance costs are calculated based on a $35 per unit annual preventative maintenance cost, plus an additional $45 per linearfoot repair and maintenance cost estimated based on 

values reported in the CRE TSD.
Final

• EPACT 2005 set maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per day, for commercial reach-in 

freezers that went into effect on January 1, 2010. The daily energy consumption is based on the volume of the unit (V) 

in ft3. 

• In March of 2017, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for commercial refrigeration equipment, including 

reach-in freezers. Both the EPCA and DOE standards are reported in the table below.

• In 2013, EPA updated its ENERGY STAR specifications for reach-in freezers, effective March 27, 2017. These standards 

are also based on the refrigerated volume of the unit.

98

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Freezers

Reach-In Freezer Size 0 < V < 15 15 ≤ V < 30 30 ≤ V < 50 50 ≤ V

Solid Door (VCS.SC.L) 0.21xV+0.9 0.12xV+2.248 0.285xV-2.703 0.142xV+4.445

Glass Door (VCT.SC.L) 0.232xV+2.36 0.232xV+2.36 0.232xV+2.36 0.232xV+2.36

Equipment Class EPCA (2010) DOE Standard Level (2017)

Solid Door (VCS.SC.L) 0.4xV+1.38 0.22xV+1.38

Transparent Door (VCT.SC.L) 0.75xV+4.10 0.29xV+2.95
Final

• The commercial reach-in freezer characterized in this report, which is the typical unit according to DOE’s 2014 CRE 

rulemaking, is a 49 cubic ft. solid two-door unit with a nominal compressor size of 4,341 Btu/h. 

• The efficiency of commercial reach-in freezers can be increased through the use of efficient compressors, efficient 

evaporator fans, efficient condenser fans, electric defrost, and more efficient lighting.

• For this referenced scenario, energy use is projected to remain static over the coming decades because reach-in 

freezers are a mature technology. 

99

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Freezers
Final

100

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h)1 37,820 39,422 41,024 41,024 41,024 N/A 41,024 41,024 41,024 41,024 41,024 41,024

Size (ft2

) 305 240 240 240 240 N/A 240 240 240 240 240 240

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)2 30,689 20,040 17,600 16,200 14,800 N/A 16,200 14,800 16,200 14,800 16,200 14,800

Annual Energy Use / Area (kWh/ft2

/y) 101 84 73 68 62 N/A 68 62 68 62 68 62

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.53 1.74 1.89 2.07 N/A 1.89 2.07 1.89 2.07 1.89 2.07

Insulated Box Average Life (years) 12 12 12 12 12 N/A 12 12 12 12 12 12

Compressor Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $23,598 $19,847 $16,050 $19,847 $23,644 N/A $16,050 $23,644 $16,050 $23,644 $16,050 $23,644 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $27,012 $23,897 $20,100 $23,897 $27,694 N/A $20,100 $27,694 $20,100 $27,694 $20,100 $27,694 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $714 $606 $490 $583 $675 N/A $490 $675 $490 $675 $490 $675 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)5 $716 $740 $740 $740 $740 N/A $740 $740 $740 $740 $740 $740

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $18.93 $18.77 $18.04 $18.04 $18.04 N/A $18.04 $18.04 $18.04 $18.04 $18.04 $18.04

1. Assumes medium temperature units are refrigerators.

2. Average unit energy consumption was adapted from the DOE CRE 2016 report by assuming electronically commutated motor (ECM) evaporator fan motors are required for 

Energy Policy & Conservation Act (EPCA) compliance, as well as ECM condenser fan motors.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Installation cost for 2012 and beyond is based on DOE’s Walk-In TSD.

5. Maintenance cost includes checking and maintaining refrigerant charge levels, checking settings, and cleaning heat exchanger coils.
Final

101

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

• For 2012 and beyond, the unit characterized was a walk-in storage cooler, based on DOE’s WICF TSD.

• A typical walk-in refrigerator includes:

- insulated floor and wall panels

- merchandising doors, shelving, and lighting (not included in cost estimate)

- semi-hermetic reciprocating compressor

- refrigerant (R404A)

- condenser

- evaporator

• Energy consumption is assumed to scale with the AWEF (Annual Walk-in Energy Factor), defined as the ratio of total 

heat removed from the refrigerated volume per year to the total electrical energy input of refrigeration systems over 

the same time period. 

• The installation cost consists of freight and delivery costs in addition to on-site assembly.
Final

102

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 included prescriptive standards for walk-in refrigerators 

(coolers) that went into effect in 2009. These prescriptive standards, which are included in the analysis for all units for 

2012 and beyond, state that all walk-in refrigerators manufactured after January 1, 2009, must:

• For 2012 and beyond

• have automatic door closers 

• have strip doors, spring hinged doors, or other method of minimizing infiltration when doors are open

• contain wall, ceiling, and door insulation of at least R–25, except for glazed portions of doors and structural members

• use electronically commutated motors or three-phase motors (for evaporator fan motors of under 1 horsepower and 

less than 460 volts)

• use electronically commutated motors, permanent split capacitor-type motors, or three-phase motors (for condenser 

fan motors of under 1 horsepower)

• use light sources with an efficacy of 40 lumens per watt or more, including ballast losses (if any), except that light 

sources with an efficacy of 40 lumens per watt or less, including ballast losses (if any), may be used in conjunction 

with a timer or device that turns off the lights within 15 minutes of when the walk-in refrigerator is not occupied by 

people.
Final

In 2014, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for walk-in coolers and freezers. Minimum AWEF (Annual 

Walk-In Energy Factor) was set for refrigeration systems, as well as upper limits on energy consumption attributable to 

passage, freight, and display doors. DOE elected not to set new standards for the R-value of Walk-In Panels.

103

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR WALK-IN COOLERS AND WALK-IN FREEZERS

Class descriptor Class Standard lev el

Refrigeration Systems Minimum AWEF (Btu/W-h)

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Indoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ......... DC.M.I, <9,000 ... 5.61

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Indoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ......... DC.M.I, ≥ 9,000 ... 5.61

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Outdoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ...... DC.M.O, <9,000 ...7.60

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Outdoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ...... DC.M.O,≥9,000 ...7.60

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Indoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............... DC.L.I, <9,000 ..... 5.93 ⋅ 10¥5 ⋅Q + 2.33

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Indoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............... DC.L.I, ≥9,000 .... 3.10

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Outdoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............. DC.L.O, <9,000 .. 2.30 ⋅ 10¥4 ⋅Q + 2.73

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Outdoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............. DC.L.O, ≥9,000 .. 4.79

Multiplex Condensing, Medium Temperature ........................................................................... MC.M .................. 10.89

Multiplex Condensing, Low Temperature ................................................................................. MC.L ................... 6.57

Panels Minimum R-v alue (h-ft2-°F/Btu)

Structural Panel, Medium Temperature .................................................................................... SP.M .................. 25

Structural Panel, Low Temperature .......................................................................................... SP.L ................... 32

Floor Panel, Low Temperature ................................................................................................. FP.L .................... 28

Non-Display Doors Maximum energy consumption

(kWh/day) **

Passage Door, Medium Temperature ...................................................................................... PD.M .................. 0.05 ⋅And + 1.7

Passage Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................. PD.L ................... 0.14 ⋅And + 4.8

Freight Door, Medium Temperature ......................................................................................... FD.M .................. 0.04 ⋅And + 1.9

Freight Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................... FD.L ................... 0.12 ⋅And + 5.6

Display Doors Maximum Energy Consumption (kWh/day) †

Display Door, Medium Temperature ......................................................................................... DD.M .................. 0.04 ⋅Add + 0.41

Display Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................... DD.L ................... 0.15 ⋅Add + 0.29
Final

104

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 22,114 23,500 23,500 23,500 23,500 N/A 23,500 23,500 23,500 23,500 23,500 23,500

Size (ft2

) 1 172 161 161 161 161 N/A 161 161 161 161 161 161

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)2 22,862 22,000 22,000 20,460 19,028 N/A 20,460 19,028 20,460 19,028 20,460 19,028

Annual Energy Use / Area (kWh/ft2

/y) 133 124 124 115 107 N/A 115 107 115 107 115 107

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.04 1.04 1.12 1.20 N/A 1.12 1.20 1.12 1.20 1.12 1.20

Insulated Box Average Life (years) 12 12 12 12 12 N/A 12 12 12 12 12 12

Compressor Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $22,008 $21,950 $21,950 $22,850 $23,750 N/A $22,850 $23,750 $22,850 $23,750 $22,850 $23,750 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $24,058 $23,950 $23,950 $24,850 $25,750 N/A $24,850 $25,750 $24,850 $25,750 $24,850 $25,750 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $1,088 $1,019 $1,019 $1,057 $1,096 N/A $1,057 $1,096 $1,057 $1,096 $1,057 $1,096 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)5 $741 $741 $741 $741 $741 N/A $741 $741 $741 $741 $741 $741

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $33.51 $31.53 $31.53 $31.53 $31.53 N/A $31.53 $31.53 $31.53 $31.53 $31.53 $31.53

1. Based on DOE's 2014 WICF Final Rule TSD and additional analysis by Guidehouse, the average floor area for a walk-in storage freezer as 161 ft2.

2. EISA 2007 includes prescriptive standards for walk-in freezers that went into effect in 2009. All units for 2012 and beyond include these prescriptive standards. Units for 2022 and beyond 

are characterized using data from DOE’s 2014 WICF rulemaking. All units for 2022 and beyond are assumed to comply with this standard.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Installation cost for 2012 and beyond is based on DOE’s WICF TSD and additional analysis by Guidehouse. 

5. Maintenance cost includes checking and maintaining refrigerant charge levels, checking settings, and cleaning heat exchanger coils.
Final

105

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

• The commercial walk-in freezer characterized in this report is a walk-in storage freezer with an area of 161 ft2.

• A typical walk-in freezer includes:

- insulated floor, door, and wall panels

- semi-hermetic reciprocating compressor

- refrigerant (R404A)

- condenser

- evaporator

• Energy consumption is assumed to scale with the AWEF (Annual Walk-in Energy Factor), defined as the ratio of total 

heat removed from the refrigerated volume per year to the total electrical energy input of refrigeration systems over the 

same time period. 

• The installation cost consists of freight and delivery costs in addition to on-site assembly.
Final

106

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

EISA 2007 included prescriptive standards for walk-in freezers that went into effect in 2009. These prescriptive standards, 

which are included in all units for 2011 and beyond, state that all walk-in freezers manufactured after January 1, 2009, 

must:

• have automatic door closers 

• have strip doors, spring hinged doors, or other method of minimizing infiltration when doors are open

• contain wall, ceiling, and door insulation of at least R–32, except for glazed portions of doors and structural members

• contain floor insulation of at least R–28

• use electronically commutated motors or three-phase motors (for evaporator fan motors of under 1 horsepower and 

less than 460 volts)

• use electronically commutated motors, permanent split capacitor-type motors, or three-phase motors (for condenser 

fan motors of under 1 horsepower)

• use light sources with an efficacy of 40 lumens per watt or more, including ballast losses (if any), except that light 

sources with an efficacy of 40 lumens per watt or less, including ballast losses (if any), may be used in conjunction 

with a timer or device that turns off the lights within 15 minutes of when the walk-in freezer is not occupied by 

people.
Final

107

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

In 2014, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for walk-in coolers and freezers. Minimum AWEF (Annual 

Walk-in Energy Factor) was set for refrigeration systems, as well as upper limits on energy consumption attributable to 

passage, freight, and display doors. DOE elected not to set new standards for the R-value of Walk-in Panels.

ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR WALK-IN COOLERS AND WALK-IN FREEZERS

Class descriptor Class Standard lev el

Refrigeration Systems Minimum AWEF (Btu/W-h)

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Indoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ......... DC.M.I, <9,000 ... 5.61

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Indoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ......... DC.M.I, ≥ 9,000 ... 5.61

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Outdoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ...... DC.M.O, <9,000 ...7.60

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Outdoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ...... DC.M.O,≥9,000 ...7.60

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Indoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............... DC.L.I, <9,000 ..... 5.93 ⋅ 10¥5 ⋅Q + 2.33

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Indoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............... DC.L.I, ≥9,000 .... 3.10

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Outdoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............. DC.L.O, <9,000 .. 2.30 ⋅ 10¥4 ⋅Q + 2.73

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Outdoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............. DC.L.O, ≥9,000 .. 4.79

Multiplex Condensing, Medium Temperature ........................................................................... MC.M .................. 10.89

Multiplex Condensing, Low Temperature ................................................................................. MC.L ................... 6.57

Panels Minimum R-v alue (h-ft2-°F/Btu)

Structural Panel, Medium Temperature .................................................................................... SP.M .................. 25

Structural Panel, Low Temperature .......................................................................................... SP.L ................... 32

Floor Panel, Low Temperature ................................................................................................. FP.L .................... 28

Non-Display Doors Maximum energy consumption

(kWh/day) **

Passage Door, Medium Temperature ...................................................................................... PD.M .................. 0.05 ⋅And + 1.7

Passage Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................. PD.L ................... 0.14 ⋅And + 4.8

Freight Door, Medium Temperature ......................................................................................... FD.M .................. 0.04 ⋅And + 1.9

Freight Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................... FD.L ................... 0.12 ⋅And + 5.6

Display Doors Maximum Energy Consumption (kWh/day) †

Display Door, Medium Temperature ......................................................................................... DD.M .................. 0.04 ⋅Add + 0.41

Display Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................... DD.L ................... 0.15 ⋅Add + 0.29
Final

108

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Ice Machines

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR6 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Output (pounds [lbs] per day) 1 300 641 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h)2 1963 4194 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580

Water Use per Hundred Pounds 

(gal/hundred lbs)3 20 25 25 20 15 15 20 15 20 15 20 15

Energy Use per Hundred Pounds 

(kWh/hundred lbs) 7.7 7.5 7.1 5.8 4.8 4.8 5.8 4.8 5.8 4.8 5.8 4.8

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)4 3,185 2,502 1,675 1,478 1,190 1,190 1,478 1,190 1,478 1,190 1,478 1,190

Indexed Annual Efficiency5 1.00 1.27 1.90 2.15 2.68 2.68 2.15 2.68 2.15 2.68 2.15 2.68

Average Life (years) 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $2,146 $2,616 $2,946 $3,020 $3,368 $3,368 $3,020 $3,368 $3,020 $3,368 $3,020 $3,368 

Total Installed Cost (with Bin) $2,441 $3,626 $3,276 $3,350 $3,737 $3,737 $3,350 $3,737 $3,350 $3,737 $3,350 $3,737 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $1,244 $865 $715 $732 $816 $816 $732 $816 $732 $816 $732 $816 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)7 $826 $826 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $421 $197 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175

1. Based on the average output from the Compliance Certification Database and values within 2022 Automatic Commercial Ice Maker (ACIM) TSD.

2. Defined as the average heat load to remove the latent and sensible heat required to freeze the daily output capacity of ice.

3. Water use refers to potable water.

4. EPACT 2005 energy standards went into effect in 2010. The 2015 low values are based on this standard. In 2014, DOE set new standards for commercial ice machines, with compliance required by 2018. The unit 

characterized for 2012 and beyond uses data from this rulemaking. All units for 2020 and beyond are assumed to comply with the updated standard.

5. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

6. The ENERGY STAR category is based on minimum compliance with the ENERGY STAR v3.0 standard, which went into effect on January 28, 2018. According to this analysis, ENERGY STAR certification is 

typical for the small air-cooled ice-making head (IMH) unit characterized.

7. Maintenance cost is based on the average cost of equipment within the 700 lb/day output range and includes cleaning and maintaining refrigerant levels, replacing filters, checking water distribution lines for 

leaks, cleaning, sanitizing, and descaling the bin and water system. Maintenance cost decreases as the size of the ice machine (i.e. output) decreases.
Final

109

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Ice Machines

• Commercial ice machines are typically integrated with an insulated ice storage bin or mounted on top of a separate 

storage bin. The retail equipment cost includes the ice making head and the integrated storage bin. Commercial ice 

machine condensers are either air-cooled or water-cooled. Approximately 90% of all units are the air-cooled type.

• Commercial ice machine maintenance includes periodic cleaning (every 2 to 6 weeks) to remove lime and scale and 

sanitizing to kill bacteria. Some ice machines are self-cleaning/sanitizing.

• ENERGY STAR® updated its maximum energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per 100 pounds of ice, for aircooled ice machines that went into effect on January 28, 2018. These efficiency levels are based on the harvest rate, in 

pounds per 24 hours. (H). Water-cooled ice machines are not eligible for ENERGY STAR certification.

ENERGY STAR Requirements for Air-Cooled Batch-Type Ice Makers

Equipment Type

Applicable Ice 

Harvest Rate Range 

(lbs of ice/24 hrs)

Energy 

Consumption Rate 

(kWh/100 lbs ice)

Potable Water Use 

(gal/hundred lbs

ice)

IMH 200 ≤ H ≤ 1600 ≤ 37.72 * H -0.298 ≤ 20.0

RCU

400 ≤ H ≤ 1600 ≤ 22.95 * H -0.258 + 

1.00 ≤ 20.0

1600 ≤ H ≤ 4000 ≤ -0.00011 * H + 4.60 ≤ 20.0

SCU 50 ≤ H ≤ 450 ≤ 48.66 * H -0.326 + 

0.08 ≤ 25.0

ENERGY STAR Requirements for Air-Cooled Continuous-Type Ice Makers

Equipment Type Energy Consumption Rate 

(kWh/hundred lbs ice)

Potable Water Use 

(gal/hundred lbs ice)

IMH ≤ 9.18 * H -0.057 ≤ 15.0

RCU ≤ 6.00 * H -0.162 + 3.50 ≤ 15.0

SCU ≤ 59.45 * H -0.349 + 0.08 ≤ 15.0
Final

110

EPACT 2005 issued standard levels for commercial ice machines with capacities between 50 pounds and 2500 pounds per 

24-hour period that are manufactured or sold in the United States on or after January 1, 2010. The energy consumption is 

based on the harvest rate in pounds per 24 hours (H). In 2015, DOE finalized new standards for ACIMs extending 

coverage to flake, nugget, and tube-type machines and to capacities up to 4,000 pounds per 24 hours.

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Ice Machines

Water use is for the condenser only and does not include potable water used to make ice.

Equipment Type Type of

Cooling

Harvest Rate

(lbs ice/24 hrs)

Maximum Energy Use

(kWh/hundred lbs ice)

Maximum Condenser Water

Use (gal/hundred lbs ice)

Ice Making Head

Water

<500 7.80-0.0055 H 200-0.022 H

≥500 and <1,436 5.58-0.0011 H 200-0.022 H

≥1,436 4.0 200-0.022 H

Air

<450 10.26-0.0086 H Not Applicable

≥450 6.89-0.0011 H Not Applicable

Remote Condensing

(but not remote compressor)

Air

<1,000 8.85-0.0038 H Not Applicable

≥1,000 5.10 Not Applicable

Remote Condensing

and Remote Compressor

Air

<934 8.85-0.0038 H Not Applicable

≥934 5.3 Not Applicable

Self Contained

Water

<200 11.40-0.019 H 191-0.0315 H

≥200 7.60 191-0.0315 H

Air

<175 18.0-0.0469 H Not Applicable

≥175 9.80 Not Applicable
Final

2014 DOE Standards

111

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Ice Machines

Energy Conservation Standards for Batch-Type Automatic Commercial Ice Makers 

Effective January 2018

Equipment Type Type of Cooling Harvest Rate

lb ice/24 hours

Maximum Energy 

Use

kWh/100 lb ice*

Maximum 

Condenser Water 

Use

gal/100 lb ice**

Ice-Making Head Water

<300 6.88 - 0.0055H 200 - 0.022H

300 and <850 5.80 - 0.00191H 200 - 0.022H

850 and <1,500 4.42 - 0.00028H 200 - 0.022H

1500 and <2,500 4.0 200 - 0.022H

2500 and <4,000 4.0 145

Ice-Making Head Air

<300 10 - 0.01233H Not Applicable

300 and <800 7.05 - 0.0025H Not Applicable

800 and <1500 5.55 - 0.00063H Not Applicable

1500 and <4,000 4.61 Not Applicable

Remote Condensing 

(but not remote 

compressor)

Air

50 and <1,000 7.97 - 0.00342H Not Applicable

1,000 and <4,000 4.55 Not Applicable

Remote Condensing 

and Remote 

Compressor

Air

<942 7.97 - 0.00342H Not Applicable

942 and <4,000 4.75 Not Applicable

Self-Contained Water

<200 9.5 - 0.019H 191 - 0.0315H

200 and <2,500 5.7 191 - 0.0315H

2500 and <4,000 5.7 112

Self-Contained Air

<110 14.79 - 0.0469H Not Applicable

110 and <200 12.42 - 0.02533H Not Applicable

200 and <4,000 7.35 Not Applicable

Energy Conservation Standards for Continuous-Type Automatic Commercial Ice Makers 

Effective January 2018

Equipment Type Type of Cooling Harvest Rate

lb ice/24 hours

Maximum Energy 

Use

kWh/100 lb ice*

Maximum 

Condenser Water 

Use

gal/100 lb ice**

Ice-Making Head Water

<801 6.48 - 0.00267H 180 - 0.0198H

801 and <2,500 4.34 180 - 0.0198H

2,500 and <4,000 4.34 130.5

Ice-Making Head Air

<310 9.19 - 0.00629H Not Applicable

310 and <820 8.23 - 0.0032H Not Applicable

820 and <4,000 5.61 Not Applicable

Remote 

Condensing (but 

not remote 

compressor)

Air

<800 9.7 - 0.0058H Not Applicable

800 and <4,000 5.06 Not Applicable

Remote 

Condensing and 

Remote 

Compressor

Air

<800 9.9 - 0.0058H Not Applicable

800 and <4,000 5.26 Not Applicable

Self-Contained Water

<900 7.6 - 0.00302H 153 - 0.0252H

900 and <2,500 4.88 153 - 0.0252H

2500 and <4,000 4.88 90

Self-Contained Air

<200 14.22 - 0.03H Not Applicable

200 and <700 9.47 - 0.00624H Not Applicable

700 and <4,000 5.1 Not Applicable
Final

112

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Beverage Merchandisers

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 4,689 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700

Size (ft3) 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y) 1,829 1,635 1,380 1,141 902 902 1,141 902 1,141 902 1,141 902

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/ft3/y)1 68 73 55 35 26 26 35 26 35 26 35 26

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.12 1.33 1.60 2.03 2.03 1.60 2.03 1.60 2.03 1.60 2.03

Average Life (years) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $2,382 $2,051 $1,710 $2,762 $3,332 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $2,382 $2,051 $1,710 $2,762 $3,332 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $508 $436 $364 $588 $709 $709 $588 $709 $588 $709 $588 $709 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$) $108 $108 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $23.03 $22.98 $20.21 $20.21 $20.11 $20.11 $20.21 $20.11 $20.21 $20.11 $20.21 $20.11

1. EPACT 2005 energy conservation standards went into effect in 2010. In 2015, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for commercial refrigeration equipment, including 

transparent-doored refrigerators with pull-down capability. Compliance with this standard is required by 2017. Units characterized for 2018 and beyond use data reported in this 

rulemaking’s TSD. Units sold in 2022 and beyond are assumed to comply with this updated standard.

2. The ENERGY STAR category characterizes a unit that is compliant with ENERGY STAR v4, effective March 2017. This standard does not separately define units with pull-down capability.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use). 

4. Beverage merchandisers are shipped ready to be plugged in, so installation costs are assumed to be negligible.
Final

113

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Beverage Merchandisers

• EPACT 2005 sets maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per day, for commercial refrigerators with 

transparent doors and self-contained condensing unit designed for pull-down temperature applications (i.e., beverage 

merchandisers) and went into effect on January 1, 2010. 

• In 2014, DOE updated its energy consumption standards for commercial refrigeration equipment, including beverage 

merchandisers, effective March 27, 2015. Both the DOE and EPCA standards are reported below. 

• In 2013, EPA updated its ENERGY STAR specifications for glass-doored commercial refrigerators, which can be used as 

beverage merchandisers, effective October 1, 2014. These standards are also based on the volume of the unit (V). Note that 

ENERGY STAR does not have a separate equipment class for units with pull-down capability. 

Equipment Type EPCA (2010) DOE Standards (2017)

Beverage Merchandisers 

(PD.SC.M)

0.126xV + 3.51 0.11xV+0.81

Beverage 

Merchandiser Size 0 < V < 15 15 ≤ V < 30 30 ≤ V < 50 50 ≤ V

Glass Door 0.118*V + 1.382 ≤ 0.140*V + 1.050 ≤ 0.088*V + 2.625 ≤ 0.110*V + 1.500
Final

114

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Beverage Merchandisers

• The beverage merchandiser characterized in this report, which is the typical unit according to DOE’s 2014 CRE 

rulemaking and additional analysis by Guidehouse, is a 27 cubic foot cooler with a single hinged, transparent door, 

bright lighting, and shelving with a nominal compressor size of 4,700 Btu/h. 

• The efficiency of beverage merchandisers can be increased through the use of more efficient compressors, 

fluorescent lighting with electronic ballasts, LED lighting, and improved insulation.

• For the Reference Case, beverage merchandisers are assumed to be mature technologies with few technology 

advancements in the coming years that would dramatically improve the efficiency. 
Final

115

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 1,810 1,707 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810

Can Capacity 470 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500

Size (ft3

) 26 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)1 1,632 1,550 1,550 1,531 1,443 1,443 1,531 1,443 1,531 1,443 1,531 1,443

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/ft3

/y) 63 44 44 44 41 41 44 41 44 41 44 41

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.07 1.13 1.13 1.07 1.13 1.07 1.13 1.07 1.13

Average Life (years) 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $3,209 $2,553 $3,059 $3,272 $3,520 $3,520 $3,272 $3,520 $3,272 $3,520 $3,272 $3,520 

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $3,320 $2,705 $3,276 $3,489 $3,737 $3,737 $3,489 $3,737 $3,489 $3,737 $3,489 $3,737 

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $1,834 $1,585 $1,810 $1,928 $2,065 $2,065 $1,928 $2,065 $1,928 $2,065 $1,928 $2,065

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)4 $270 $270 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $149 $149 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184

1. Energy use for 2018 and beyond is estimated based on DOE’s 2020 BVM Final Rule and the 2022 Compliance Certification Database.

2. The ENERGY STAR category assumes units are compliant with the ENERGY STAR v4 standard because combination units are currentlynot separately defined by ENERGY STAR. This 

standard went into effect on April 29, 2020. Our analysis finds ENERGY STAR certified equipment to be the most efficient currently available on the market.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Maintenance cost includes preventative maintenance costs such as checking and maintaining refrigerant charge levels, cleaningheat exchanger coils, and an annualized cost for 

refurbishments/remanufacturing. 
Final

116

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

• DOE set federal energy efficiency standards for refrigerated vending machines. These standards set maximum daily energy 

consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per day, for commercial refrigerated vending machines manufactured or sold in the 

United States on or after August 31, 2012. The daily energy consumption is based on the volume of the unit (V).

• In December 2015, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for beverage vending machines and defined two new 

product classes for combination vending machines. The energy conservation standard remains the same in the updated 

2022 technical support document for vending machines. Compliance with these standards was required by 2019. For this 

analysis, compliance with these updated standards is assumed for equipment sold in 2022 and beyond. The updated 

standards and DOE equipment definitions are listed in the table below.

Equipment Type Maximum Daily Energy Consumption

Class A (Transparent-Front) MDEC= 0.052 × V + 2.43

Class B (Solid-Front) MDEC = 0.052 × V + 2.20 

Combination A MDEC = 0.086 × V + 2.66

Combination B MDEC = 0.111 × V + 2.04
Final

117

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

Equipment Class Maximum daily energy consumption (kilowatt-hours per day)

Class A – a refrigerated bottled or canned beverage vending machine that is not a 

combination vending machine and in which 25% or more of the surface area on the 

front side of the beverage vending machine is transparent

MDEC = 0.04836 x V + 2.2599

Class B – any refrigerated bottled or canned beverage vending machine that is not 

considered to be Class A and is not a combination vending machine MDEC = 0.04576 x V+1.936

Combination A – a combination vending machine where 25% or more of the 

surface area on the front side of the beverage vending machine is transparent MDEC = 0.07998 x V + 2.4738

Combination B – a combination vending machine that is not considered to be 

Combination A MDEC = 0.09768 x V + 1.7952

ENERGY STAR® updated its maximum daily energy consumption efficiency levels, also in kilowatt-hours per day, for 

refrigerated vending machines that went into effect on April 29, 2020. These efficiency levels are based on refrigerated 

volume.
Final

Commercial Ventilation 

118
Final

119

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Constant Air Volume

1. Based on 3800 operating hours per year (ADL, 1999) and typical zone air flow requirement profile (ASHRAE S45.11-2012)

2. Total installed cost of 16,300 CFM constant air volume (CAV) air handling unit (AHU) and hypothetical supply ductwork layout

3. Based on ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 fan power limit (Table 6.5.3.1.1-1) with no pressure drop adjustment. Assumed 80% motor load and 91% motor efficiency

4. ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 Section 6.5.3.2 require minimum two-speed fan control (no longer always constant volume).

5. Two-speed variable frequency drive (VFD)

6. Modulating VFD

7. Modulating custom engineered VFD

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average3

Low4,5 Typical4,6 High4,7 ENERGY 

STAR Typical4,6 High4,7 Typical4,6 High4,7 Typical4,6 High4,7

System Airflow (CFM) 15,000 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 N/A 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300

System Fan Power (kW) 11.56 11.56 11.56 10.98 10.78 N/A 10.98 10.78 10.98 10.78 10.98 10.78

Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) 0.771 0.709 0.709 0.674 0.661 N/A 0.674 0.661 0.674 0.661 0.674 0.661

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)1

43,924 23,038 23,038 21,886 20,792 N/A 21,886 20,792 21,886 20,792 21,886 20,792

Average Life (years) 35 35 35 35 35 N/A 35 35 35 35 35 35

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2

$80,288 $83,083 $83,083 $86,901 $90,651 N/A $86,901 $90,651 $86,901 $90,651 $86,901 $90,651 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 N/A $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand 

cubic feet per minute [CFM]) $5,353 $5,097 $5,097 $5,331 $5,561 N/A $5,331 $5,561 $5,331 $5,561 $5,331 $5,561 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/thousand CFM) $70 $65 $65 $65 $65 N/A $65 $65 $65 $65 $65 $65 
Final

120

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Constant Air Volume

• Constant air volume (CAV) ventilation systems are common, inexpensive, air-side HVAC systems that operate in response to a single control zone. Historically, 

these systems provide a constant flow rate of air (typically a mix of recirculated and outside air) and adjust the supply temperature of that air in order to maintain 

the space temperature setpoint. Beginning with ASHRAE 90.1-2013 and continued in ASHRAE 90.1-2019, new CAV ventilation systems were mandated to have at 

least two fan speed settings with the requirement of a maximum 40% power at 66% flow. Systems with variable speed fans are increasingly popular, making the 

term “constant air volume” somewhat of a misnomer for this system type. This analysis examines only the fan energy of the CAV system.

• There is movement in the industry and in energy codes to reduce fan power. ASHRAE 90.1 includes fan power limits for CAV systems. Fan power can be 

minimized through good design practice (efficient duct layout, low pressure drop ductwork, filters, coils), proper fan selection, and high efficiency type fans. 

ASHRAE 90.1-2019 now requires a minimum fan efficiency grade (FEG, based on AMCA 205-12: Energy Efficiency Classification for Fans) of 67 and a design 

operating fan efficiency within 15% of the maximum fan total efficiency. There are exceptions to this requirement, including packaged systems such as the CAV 

system type considered here. Still the fan power limits are expected to become more stringent, and fan efficiency will become more important throughout the 

industry.

• The unit characterized in this report is a 16,300 CFM CAV system. The average commercial building is approximately 16,300 square feet (CBECS 2018). Assuming 

1 CFM is needed per square foot of floor area results in a 16,300 CFM air handling unit.

• A 16,300 CFM CAV packaged indoor air handling unit with cooling and heating coils can be installed for approximately $71,829 (RS Means 2022). Ductwork 

would cost approximately $9,272 additional ($81,101 total). A two-speed motor (estimated $500 incremental cost) and variable frequency drive (estimated $5,800) 

add cost. Custom engineered variable frequency drives (estimated $9,550) and premium efficiency motors (estimated additional $1,500) add an additional cost to 

the system.

• Annual maintenance cost assumes 8 hours worth of labor by a technician to perform the necessary tasks (e.g., filter replacement, draining condenser water, etc.)

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a basis for most state energy codes, limits the fan power (brake HP or nameplate HP) for CAV systems. The 2016 version 

of Standard 90.1 was used to represent the 2018 minimum efficiency level (state energy codes typically refer to older versions of Standard 90.1 due to code 

revision cycles).

• Fan energy is affected by several factors, including fan type (e.g., centrifugal, axial), fan blade shape (e.g., forward-curved, backward-curved, backward-inclined, 

airfoil), drive type (belt or direct), configuration (plenum or housed centrifugal), system effects, duct design, filter and coil pressure drops, motor efficiency, and 

speed and flow control. 
Final

121

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Variable Air Volume

1. Based on 3800 operating hours per year (ADL, 1999) and typical zone air flow requirement profile (ASHRAE S45.11-2012)

2. Total installed cost of 16,300 CFM VAV AHU, VFD, (10) VAV boxes, (10) VAV controllers with associated space temperature sensor, and hypothetical supply ductwork layout

3. Based on ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 fan power limit (Table 6.5.3.1.1-1) with no pressure drop adjustment. Assumed 80% motor load and 91% motor efficiency

4. ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 Section 6.5.3.2 minimum power-flow requirement

5. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 fan power limit and typical VAV power-flow relationship for 40%-100% flow

6. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 fan power limit and typical VAV power-flow relationship for 30%-100% flow

7. High aerodynamic efficiency fan

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average3

Low4 Typical5 High6 ENERGY 

STAR Typical6 High6,7 Typical6,7 High6,7 Typical6,7 High6,7

System Airflow (CFM) 15,000 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 N/A 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300

System Fan Power (kW) 15.99 15.99 15.99 15.99 15.99 N/A 15.99 15.19 15.99 15.19 15.99 15.19

Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) 1.066 1.066 0.981 0.981 0.981 N/A 0.981 0.932 0.981 0.932 0.981 0.932

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)1

24,699 24,082 24,082 22,878 21,734 N/A 22,878 21,734 22,878 21,734 22,878 21,734

Average Life (years) 28 28 28 28 28 N/A 28 28 28 28 28 28

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2

$103,327 $110,414 $118,814 $124,495 $124,995 N/A $124,495 $124,995 $124,495 $124,995 $124,495 $124,995 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 N/A $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand 

CFM) $6,888 $6,774 $7,289 $7,638 $7,668 N/A $7,638 $7,668 $7,638 $7,668 $7,638 $7,668 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/thousand CFM) $70 $65 $65 $65 $65 N/A $65 $65 $65 $65 $65 $65 
Final

122

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Variable Air Volume

• Variable air volume (VAV) ventilation systems are the most common multi-zone system type specified today for conditioning commercial buildings. These systems 

provide conditioned air to multiple zone terminal units (VAV boxes) that use dampers to modulate the amount of cool air to each zone. An individual zone 

thermostat controls the VAV box damper to allow more or less cooling. If a zone requires heating, then the VAV box provides the minimum flow rate and typically 

includes a reheat coil to meet the space temperature setpoint. As VAV box dampers close in the system, a variable frequency drive reduces fan speed and flow 

continuously to meet current requirements.

• This analysis examines only the fan energy of the VAV system. VAV systems vary fan speed and flow to meet space conditioning requirements; minimum flow 

settings apply for DX cooling stages and gas furnace heating stages. Most hours of operation are much lower than full speed, and fan power varies with the cube of 

fan speed according to fan affinity laws. The 2012 ASHRAE Handbook: HVAC Systems and Equipment (p. 45.11) provided the typical flow profile used for this 

analysis. The unit characterized in this report is a 16,300 CFM VAV system. 

• There is movement in the industry and in energy codes to reduce fan power. ASHRAE 90.1 includes fan power limits for VAV systems. Fan power can be minimized 

through good design practice (efficient duct layout, low pressure drop ductwork, filters, coils), proper fan selection, and high efficiency type fans. ASHRAE 90.1-

2019 now requires a minimum fan efficiency grade (FEG, based on AMCA 205-12: Energy Efficiency Classification for Fans) of 67 and a design operating fan 

efficiency within 15% of the maximum fan total efficiency. There are exceptions to this requirement, including packaged systems such as the VAV system type 

considered here. Still the fan power limits are expected to become more stringent, and fan efficiency will become more important throughout the industry.

• A 16,300 CFM VAV packaged indoor air handling unit with cooling and heating coils can be installed for approximately $82,023 (RS Means 2022). Ductwork and (10) 

VAV boxes with reheat would cost approximately an additional $28,272. (10) VAV controllers and the associated space temperature sensor would cost approximately 

$8,400 ($118,695 total). A 15 hp variable frequency drive (estimated $5,800) is an additional cost.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a basis for most state energy codes, limits the fan power for VAV systems (brake HP or nameplate HP). The 2016 version of 

Standard 90.1 was used to represent the 2018 minimum efficiency level (state energy codes typically refer to older versions of Standard 90.1 due to code revision 

cycles).

• Annual maintenance cost assumes 8 hours worth of labor by a technician to perform the necessary tasks (e.g., filter replacement, draining condenser water, etc.)

• Fan energy is affected by several factors, including fan type (e.g., centrifugal, axial), fan blade shape (e.g., forward-curved, backward-curved, backward-inclined, 

airfoil), drive type (belt or direct), configuration (plenum or housed centrifugal), system effects, duct design, filter and coil pressure drops, and motor VFD 

efficiency. 
Final

123

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Fan Coil Units

1. Based on 2250 operating hours per year (ADL, 1999) and typical zone air flow requirement profile (ASHRAE S45.11-2012)

2. Total installed cost of 2-ton horizontal two-pipe fan coil unit, housing, and controls

3. Based on ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 fan power limit (Table 6.5.3.1.1-1) with no pressure drop adjustment. Assumed 80% motor load and 91% motor efficiency

4. Based on ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 Section 6.5.3.6 requirement of electronically commutated or 70+% efficient fan motor

5. Permanent split capacitor fan motor

6. Electronically commutated fan motor (single speed)

7. Electronically commutated fan motor (two-speed)

8. Electronically commutated fan motor (variable speed)

9. High aerodynamic efficiency fan

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average5

Low3 Typical5 High6 ENERGY 

STAR Typical4,6 High4,7 Typical4,7 High4,8 Typical4,8 High4,8,9

System Airflow (CFM) 800 800 800 800 800 N/A 800 800 800 800 800 800

System Fan Power (kW) 0.241 0.241 0.241 0.148 0.148 N/A 0.141 0.134 0.134 0.136 0.136 0.129

Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) 0.302 0.302 0.301 0.185 0.185 N/A 0.176 0.167 0.167 0.170 0.170 0.162

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)1

543 542 542 333 333 N/A 316 301 301 306 306 291

Average Life (years) 37 37 37 37 37 N/A 37 37 37 37 37 37

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2

$2,845 $2,688 $3,038 $3,521 $3,961 N/A $3,961 $4,161 $3,961 $4,161 $3,961 $4,161 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $117 $117 $117 $117 $117 N/A $117 $117 $117 $117 $117 $117 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand 

CFM) $3,557 $3,360 $3,798 $4,401 $4,951 N/A $4,951 $5,201 $4,951 $5,201 $4,951 $5,201 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/thousand CFM) $146 $146 $146 $146 $146 N/A $146 $146 $146 $146 $146 $146 
Final

124

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Fan Coil Units

• Commercial fan coil units (FCUs) are self-contained, mass-produced assemblies that provide cooling, heating, or cooling and heating, but they do not include the 

source of cooling or heating. The unit characterized in this report is a cooling only (two-pipe), horizontal unit with housing and controls. Fan coil units are 

typically installed in or adjacent to the space being served and have no (or very limited) ductwork. 

• According to manufacturer literature, the cooling capacity for a nominal 800 CFM fan coil unit is about 2 tons. This analysis examines only the fan energy of 

FCUs.

• Fan coil unit fan motors can be shaded pole, a single-phase AC motor with offset start winding and no capacitor; PSC, a single-phase AC motor with offset start 

winding with capacitor; or ECM, an AC electronically commutated permanent magnet DC motor. PSC motors are currently the most common motor type in 

FCUs, but manufacturers also offer single speed, two speed, and ECM motors as an option. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 requires an electronically commutated fan motor 

(or minimum motor efficiency of 70%) for this system.

• There is movement in the industry and in energy codes to reduce fan power. ASHRAE 90.1 includes fan power limits for FCUs. Fan power can be minimized 

through good design practice and high efficiency type fans. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 now requires a minimum fan efficiency grade (FEG, based on AMCA 205-12: 

Energy Efficiency Classification for Fans) of 67 and a design operating fan efficiency within 15% of the maximum fan total efficiency. There are exceptions to this 

requirement, including small systems such as the FCU considered here. Still the fan power limits are expected to become more stringent, and fan efficiency will 

become more important throughout the industry.

• Fan coil units have higher maintenance costs than central air systems due to the distributed nature of the system. For each unit, the filters must be changed, and 

drain systems must be flushed periodically.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a basis for most state energy codes, limits the fan power (brake HP or nameplate HP). The 2016 version of Standard 90.1 

was used to represent the 2018 minimum efficiency level (state energy codes typically refer to older versions of Standard 90.1 due to code revision cycles).

• Fan energy is affected by several factors, including fan type configuration, filter and coil pressure drops, motor efficiency, and fan speed control. 
Final

Appendix A

Data Sources

A-1

Guidehouse

1200 19th Street, NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

And

SAIC

8301 Greensboro Drive

McLean, VA 22102
Final

Residential Lighting

126
Final

127

Data Sources » Residential General Service Incandescent Lamps (60 watt)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. Case

Assume Unchanged N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) DOE, 2008

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2016 EIA Ref. Case

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. Case

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

128

Data Sources » Residential General Service Incandescent Lamps (75 watt)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. Case

Assume Unchanged N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) DOE, 2008

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2016 EIA Ref. Case

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. Case

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

129

Data Sources » Residential General Service Halogen Lamps (60 watt Incandescent Equivalent)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage

2016 EIA Ref. Case Assume Unchanged

N/A

Distributor 

Websites or 

Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) DOE, 2008 DOE, 2008

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2016 EIA Ref. Case Assume Unchanged Distributor 

Websites

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) 2016 EIA Ref. Case Calculated Distributor 

Websites

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A N/A

Labor Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

130

Data Sources» Residential General Service Halogen Lamps (75 watt Incandescent Equivalent)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage

2016 EIA Ref. Case Calculated

N/A

Distributor 

Websites or 

Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) DOE, 2008 DOE, 2008

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2016 EIA Ref. Case Distributor Websites 

or Product Catalogs 

Distributor 

Websites

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) 2016 EIA Ref. Case Calculated Distributor 

Websites

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A N/A

Labor Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

131

Data Sources » Residential General Service Compact Fluorescent Lamps (60 watt Incandescent Equivalent)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage

2016 EIA Ref. Case

Calculated

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

NCI, 2019

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated

CRI

Assume Unchanged Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Product Catalogs N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2016 EIA Ref. Case

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. Case Calculated

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

N/A NCI, 2019

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A N/A

Labor Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Calculated N/A Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

132

Data Sources » Residential General Service LED Lamps (60 Watt Equivalent)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage

Model, Energy Savings 

Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

2020 DOE LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

2020 DOE LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

N/A Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A

Labor Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Calculated N/A Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

133

Data Sources » Residential General Service Filament-LED Lamps (60 Watt Equivalent)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Model, Energy Savings 

Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

2020 DOE LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings 

Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General 

Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings 

Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General 

Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

2020 DOE LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

N/A Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings 

Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General 

Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated N/A Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

134

Data Sources » Residential Reflector Lamps (65W BR30 Incandescent)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Assume 

Unchanged N/A

Distributor 

Websites or 

Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) DOE, 2012(1)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Distributor 

Websites or 

Product 

Catalogs 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

135

Data Sources » Residential Reflector Lamps (PAR30 Halogen)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Assume 

Unchanged

N/A

Distributor 

Websites or 

Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Lamp Lumens Calculated

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Assume 

Unchanged

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) DOE, 2012(1)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case Calculated

Distributor 

Websites or 

Product 

Catalogs 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

136

Data Sources » Residential Reflector Lamps (PAR30 Halogen Infrared Reflector (HIR)

DATA SOURCES

2009 2020 2015 2023 2020 2030 2040

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Calculated

N/A

Distributor 

Websites or 

Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Assume 

Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) DOE, 2012(1)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case Calculated

Distributor 

Websites or 

Product 

Catalogs 

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

137

Data Sources » Residential Reflector Lamps (BR30 CFL)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. Case / 

Calculated

N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) DOE, 2012(1)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2016 EIA Ref. Case / 

Calculated

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) 2016 EIA Ref. Case / 

Calculated Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

138

Data Sources » Residential Reflector LED BR30

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage Model 

Reference 

Scenario, 

Energy 

Savings 

Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 

2019)

2020 DOE 

LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings 

Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General 

Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings 

Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General 

Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model 

Reference 

Scenario, 

Energy 

Savings 

Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 

2019)

2020 DOE 

LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings 

Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General 

Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated N/A Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

139

Data Sources » Residential Reflector LED PAR38

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Model Reference Scenario, 

Energy Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 

2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model Reference Scenario, 

Energy Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 

2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs N/A

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated N/A Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

140

Data Sources » Residential Linear Fluorescent Lamp T12

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 2016 EIA Ref. Case

Assume 

Unchanged

N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Calculated System Wattage 

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 2016 EIA Ref. Case

Chapter 5; Table 

5.8.16 of GSFL 

Ballast Final Rule 

TSD (DOE, 2020)

CRI

2016 EIA Ref. Case

Assume 

Unchanged

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Ballast Price (2022$) 2016 EIA Ref. Case

Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor System Installation (hours) 2016 EIA Ref. Case

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

141

Data Sources » Residential Linear Fluorescent Lamp T8

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage Calculated

Distributor Websites

Calculated Lamp Lumens 2016 EIA Ref. Case

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 2015 GSFL TSD, 

Figure 11.5.4 Calculated

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) 2016 EIA Ref. Case Chapter 5; Table 5.8.15 of GSFL Ballast Final Rule TSD (DOE, 2020)

CRI

2016 EIA Ref. Case Distributor Websites

Distributor Websites

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) Calculated

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. Case

Calculated

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A Distributor Websites Calculated

Fixture Price (2022$) Calculated

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Ref. Case Assume 

unchanged

2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

142

Data Sources » Residential Linear Fluorescent Lamp T5

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage Calculated Distributor Websites

Assume unchanged Lamp Lumens 2016 EIA Ref. Case

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 2015 GSFL TSD, 

Figure 11.5.4 Calculated

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE)

Chapter 5; Table 

5.3.32 of GSFL IRL 

Final Rule TSD 

(DOE, 2015)

Chapter 5; Table 5.8.6 of GSFL Ballast Final Rule TSD (DOE, 2020)

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2016 EIA Ref. Case Distributor Websites

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. Case

Calculated

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A Distributor Websites Calculated

Fixture Price (2022$) Calculated

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Ref. Case 2022 RS Means Online Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

143

Data Sources » Residential Linear LED Replacement Lamp 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database Distributor websites

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume same as 2022 Typical and High

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings 

Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General 

Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI 2016 EIA Ref. Case 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Distributor Websites Distributor Websites 2016 EIA Ref. Case Distributor 

Websites

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database Distributor Websites

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A Fixture Price (2022$) N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

144

Data Sources » Residential Linear LED Luminaire

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database Distributor Websites

Calculated

System Lumens Assume same as 2022 Typical and High

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI

LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Distributor Websites Distributor Websites

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database Distributor Websites

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Price (2022$)

N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Ref. Case 2022 RS Means Online Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

145

Data Sources » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: BR30 Incandescent)

DATA SOURCES

2009 2020 2015 2023 2020 2030 2040

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Same as indoor Residential Incandescent Reflector

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y)

Lamp Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

146

Data Sources » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: PAR38 Halogen)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Interpolation Based on 

Commercial PAR38 Same as Commercial PAR38 Halogen

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y)

Lamp Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

147

Data Sources » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: PAR38 HIR)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Interpolated from 

Commercial PAR38 HIR Same as Commercial PAR38 HIR

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y)

Lamp Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

148

Data Sources » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: CFL PAR38)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. Case / 

Calculated

N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) DOE, 2012(1)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2016 EIA Ref. Case / 

Calculated

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) 2016 EIA Ref. Case / 

Calculated Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

149

Data Sources » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: LED PAR38)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Same as Residential LED PAR38

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y)

Lamp Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

150

Data Sources » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Porch: A19 Incandescent)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Same as Residential General Service 75W Incandescent

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y)

Lamp Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

151

Data Sources » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Porch: Halogen A-Type)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Same as Residential General Service 75W Equivalent Halogen

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y)

Lamp Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

152

Data Sources » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Porch: CFL Bare Spiral)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Calculated Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

NCI, 2019

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated

CRI

Assume 

Unchanged Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs N/A Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Product 

Catalogs

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case Calculated

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

N/A

N/A NCI, 2019

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated N/A Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

153

Data Sources » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Porch: LED A-Type)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage Model 

Reference 

Scenario, 

Energy 

Savings 

Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 

2019)

2020 DOE 

LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model 

Reference 

Scenario, 

Energy 

Savings 

Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 

2019)

2020 DOE 

LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs N/A

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

Commercial Lighting

154
Final

155

Data Sources » Commercial General Service 100W Incandescent Lamp in Recessed Can Fixture

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Reference Case

N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W)

Ballast Efficiency (BLE)

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) DOE, 2008

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2016 EIA Reference Case

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Reference Case; 

Calculated

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor System Installation (hours) 2016 EIA Reference Case

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

156

Data Sources » Commercial General Service Halogen Lamp (100W Incandescent Equivalent) in 

Recessed Can Fixture

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Assume 

Unchanged

N/A

Product 

Catalogs

N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE)

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) DOE, 2008

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Assume 

Unchanged

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case DOE, 2019

Distributor 

Websites

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Reference Case

2022 RS 

Means 

Online

Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

157

Data Sources » Commercial General Service 100W Equivalent CFL Bare Spiral in Recessed Can Fixture

DAT A SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low T ypical High ENERGY ST AR Standard T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Reference 

Case

Calculated / 

Guidehouse

Product Catalogs ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) NCI, 2019

System Wattage Same as lamp wattage

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated

Ballast Efficiency (BLE)

CRI

Correlated Color T emperature (CCT ) N/A Assume Unchanged 2016 EIA Reference Case

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

N/A

DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated

Distributor Websites

N/A

Ballast Price (2022$) NCI, 2019

Fixture Price (2022$) NCI, 2019

Disposal Cost (2022$) EPA, 2022 EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated NCI, 2019

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor System Installation (hours) 2016 EIA Reference Case 2022 RS Means Online 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

158

Data Sources » Commercial General Service 100W Equivalent LED Replacement Lamp in Recessed Can Fixture

DAT A SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low T ypical High ENERGY ST AR Standard T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Reference 

Case

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting 

in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs ENERGY 

STAR, 2020 DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

Calculated System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE)

CRI Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting 

in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

N/A

Assume Unchanged

Correlated Color T emperature (CCT ) N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

Model Reference Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting 

in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019) Assume 

Unchanged

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Reference 

Case

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting 

in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

N/A

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA Reference 

Case Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

159

Data Sources » Commercial Halogen Reflector Lamp (PAR38) in Recessed Can Fixture

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA 

Reference 

Case

2016 EIA 

Reference 

Case / 

Calculated, 

NCI, 2019

N/A

Distributor 

Websites or 

Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE)

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Reference Case; 

Calculated

Distributor 

Websites or 

Product 

Catalogs 

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Reference Case 2022 RS Means 

Online Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

160

Data Sources » Commercial Halogen Infrared Reflector Lamp (PAR38) in Recessed Can Fixture

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Reference Case

N/A

Distributor 

Websites or 

Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE)

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Reference Case; 

Calculated

Distributor 

Websites or 

Product 

Catalogs 

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Reference Case 2022 RS Means 

Online Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

161

Data Sources » Commercial LED Reflector Lighting (PAR38)

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs ENERGY STAR, 

2020 DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

Calculated System Lumens

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE)

CRI Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

ENERGY STAR, 

2020

N/A

Assume Unchanged

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) ENERGY STAR, 

2020

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings 

Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General 

Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Assume Unchanged

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp P rice (2022$)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

N/A

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast P rice (2022$) N/A N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA 

Reference Case Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

162

Data Sources » Commercial 4-ft T8 F32 Commodity in 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Calculated

Assume same as residential T8

Lamp Lumens 

Assume same 

as residential 

T8

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) SSL Forecast 

for 2018

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) Assume 

unchanged Chapter 5; Table 5.8.1 of GSFL Ballast Final Rule TSD (DOE, 2020)

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Assume same as residential T8

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) SSL Forecast 

for 2018 Ballast Price (2022$) Assume same as residential T8 Calculated

Fixture Price (2022$)

Disposal Costs (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

163

Data Sources » Commercial 4-ft T8 F28 High-efficiency and High-output in 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case Lamp Lumens Distributor Websites

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) Chapter 5; Table 5.8.1 of GSFL Ballast Final Rule TSD (DOE, 2020)

CRI

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Distributor Websites Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Calculated Distributor 

Websites Ballast Price (2022$) Calculated

Fixture Price (2022$)

Disposal Costs (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor System Installation (hours) 2016 EIA Ref. Case 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

164

Data Sources » Commercial 4-ft T5 F28 in 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Calculated

Assume same as residential T5 Lamp Lumens 

Assume 

same as 

residential 

T5, 2022

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) SSL Forecast 

for 2018

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) Chapter 5; Table 5.8.6 of GSFL Ballast Final Rule TSD (DOE, 2020)

CRI

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Assume same as residential T5 Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) SSL Forecast 

for 2018 Ballast Price (2022$) Assume same as residential T5 Calculated

Fixture Price (2022$)

Disposal Costs (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Calculated

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

165

Data Sources » Commercial 4-ft Linear LED Replacement Lamp in 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

LED 

Webscrape 

Database

Distributor websites

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume same as 2022 Typical and High

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A

CRI

Distributor websites Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

LED 

Webscrape 

Database

Distributor Websites Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting 

in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h) Assume 

unchanged Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

166

Data Sources » Commercial 4-ft Linear LED Luminaire to Replace 2-Lamp Systems

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Lamp Lumens N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

LED 

Webscrape 

Database

Distributor websites

Calculated

System Lumens Assume same as 2022 Typical and High

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of SolidState Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A

CRI

Distributor websites Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$)

LED 

Webscrape 

Database

Distributor Websites Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Assume 

unchanged Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

167

Data Sources » Commercial 4-ft T8 F28 High-efficiency and High-output in 2-Lamp System with 

Occupancy Sensor

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. Case

Lamp Lumens Distributor Websites

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) Chapter 5; Table 5.8.1 of GSFL Ballast Final Rule TSD (DOE, 2020)

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Distributor Websites

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) Calculated Distributor 

Websites Calculated

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) Calculated Distributor 

Websites

Calculated

Occupancy Sensor Price (2022$) N/A Distributor Websites

Disposal Costs (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

2016 EIA Ref. Case

Calculated

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h) Assume 

unchanged Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

168

Data Sources » Commercial 4-ft T8 F28 High-efficiency and High-output in 2-Lamp System with 

Specular Reflector

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Lamp Lumens Distributor Websites

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) Chapter 5; Table 5.8.1 of GSFL Ballast Final Rule TSD (DOE, 2020)

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Distributor Websites

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) Calculated Distributor 

Websites Calculated

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) Calculated Distributor 

Websites

Calculated

Reflector Price (2022$) N/A Distributor Websites

Disposal Costs (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h) Assume 

unchanged Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

169

Data Sources » Commercial 4-ft T8 F28 High-efficiency and High-output in 2-Lamp System with 

Occupancy Sensor and Specular Reflector

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Calculated Distributor 

Websites

Distributor 

Websites

Distributor 

Websites

Distributor 

Lamp Lumens Distributor Websites

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Websites

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) Chapter 5; Table 5.8.1 of GSFL Ballast Final Rule TSD (DOE, 2020)

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Distributor Websites

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Calculated

Distributor 

Websites

Ballast Price (2022$) Calculated Calculated Calculated

Fixture Price (2022$)

Reflector Price (2022$) N/A Distributor Websites

Occupancy Sensor Price (2022$)

Disposal Costs (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h) Assume 

unchanged Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

170

Data Sources » Commercial 8-ft T8 F59 Typical Efficiency in a 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Calculated Distributor Websites Lamp Lumens Assume same as 2022

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Calculated System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) Assume 

unchanged Chapter 5; Table 5.8.1 of GSFL Ballast Final Rule TSD (DOE, 2020)

CRI

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Distributor Websites Assume same as 2022 Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Ballast Price (2022$) Calculated Distributor Websites Calculated

Fixture Price (2022$)

Disposal Costs (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Calculated

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h) Assume 

unchanged

2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours)

Chapter 8; Table 8.2.4 of GSFL 

IRL Preliminary Analysis TSD 

(DOE, 2013)

Labor Lamp Change (hours) Chapter 8; Table 8.2.4 of GSFL IRL Preliminary Analysis TSD (DOE, 2013)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Calculated

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

171

Data Sources » Commercial 8-ft T8 F96 High-Output in a 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Assume same 

as 2022 typical Lamp Lumens Distributor Websites Assume same as 2022

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) Chapter 5; Table 5.3.26 GSFL IRL Final Rule TSD (DOE, 2014)

CRI

Distributor Websites Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Ballast Price (2022$) Calculated Distributor Websites Calculated

Fixture Price (2022$)

Disposal Costs (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Calculated Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours)

Chapter 8; Table 8.2.4 of 

GSFL IRL Preliminary 

Analysis TSD (DOE, 2013)

Labor Lamp Change (hours) Chapter 8; Table 8.2.4 of GSFL IRL Preliminary Analysis TSD (DOE, 2013)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

172

Data Sources » Commercial 8-ft Linear LED Replacement Lamp for a 2 Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

N/A

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Distributor Websites Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume same as 2022 Typical and High

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Calculated

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of SolidState Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 

2019)

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Distributor Websites Assume same as 2022

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Distributor Websites Calculated

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case 2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) Chapter 8; Table 8.2.4 of GSFL IRL Preliminary Analysis TSD (DOE, 2013)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

173

Data Sources » Commercial 8-ft Linear LED Luminaire Replacement for a 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage

N/A

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W)

System Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Distributor Websites

Calculated

System Lumens Assume same as 2022 Typical and High

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Distributor Websites Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Distributor Websites

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm)

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case 2022 RS Means Online Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Calculated

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

174

Data Sources » Commercial Mercury Vapor Low-bay

DAT A SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock Average Installed Stock Average T ypical T ypical T ypical T ypical

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Reference Case Assume Unchanged

Distributor Websites or 

Product Catalogs 

N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency

Chapter 5; Table 5.7.24 of 

HID Final Determination 

TSD (DOE, 2015)

CRI Distributor Websites or 

Correlated Color T emperature (CCT ) Product Catalogs 

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Chapter 3; Section 3.4.2 of 

HID Final Determination 

TSD (DOE, 2015)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated

Distributor Websites or 

Product Catalogs 

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$)

Chapter 7 & Appendix 6A; 

Table 6A.3.4 of HID Final 

Determination TSD (DOE, 

2015), Calculated

Disposal Cost (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Reference Case

Chapter 9; Section 9.2.2.1 of 

HID Final Determination 

TSD (DOE, 2015)

Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online Labor Lamp Change (hours)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

175

Data Sources » Commercial Metal Halide Low-bay

DAT A SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock Average Installed Stock Average T ypical T ypical T ypical T ypical

Lamp Wattage Assume Unchanged

Distributor Websites or 

Product Catalogs 

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs; Calculated Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

2016 EIA Reference Case Assume Unchanged

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency

Chapter 5; Table 5.7.24 of 

HID Final Determination 

TSD (DOE, 2015) Assume Unchanged

CRI Distributor Websites or 

Correlated Color T emperature (CCT ) Product Catalogs 

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Chapter 3; Section 3.4.2 of 

HID Final Determination 

TSD (DOE, 2015)

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs ; Calculated

Distributor Websites or 

Ballast Price (2022$) Product Catalogs 

2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated

Fixture Price (2022$)

Chapter 7 & Appendix 6A; 

Table 6A.3.4 of HID Final 

Determination TSD (DOE, 

2015), Calculated

Disposal Cost (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated Calculated

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Reference Case

Chapter 9; Section 9.2.2.1 of HID Final Determination TSD (DOE, 2015)

Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online Labor Lamp Change (hours)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

176

Data Sources » Commercial Sodium Vapor Low-bay

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock Average Installed Stock Average Typical Typical Typical Typical

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Reference Case Assume Unchanged

Distributor Websites or 

Product Catalogs 

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency

Chapter 5; Table 5.7.24 of HID 

Final Determination TSD 

(DOE, 2015) Assume Unchanged

CRI Distributor Websites or 

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Product Catalogs 

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Chapter 3; Section 3.4.2 of HID 

Final Determination TSD 

(DOE, 2015)

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp P rice (2022$)

2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated

Distributor Websites or 

Product Catalogs 

Ballast P rice (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$)

Chapter 7 & Appendix 6A; 

Table 6A.3.4 of HID Final 

Determination TSD (DOE, 

2015), Calculated

Disposal Cost (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated Calculated Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Reference Case

Chapter 9; Section 9.2.2.1 of HID Final Determination TSD (DOE, 2015)

Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

177

Data Sources » Commercial LED Low-bay Luminaire

DAT A SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High

Lamp Wattage 

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

2016 EIA Reference 

Case

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

N/A

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency N/A N/A N/A

CRI Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color T emperature (CCT )

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Reference 

Case

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Reference 

Case Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

178

Data Sources » Commercial Mercury Vapor High-Bay

DAT A SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock Average Installed Stock Average T ypical T ypical T ypical T ypical

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Reference Case Assume Unchanged

Distributor Websites or 

Product Catalogs 

N/A

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency

Chapter 5; Table 5.7.24 of 

HID Final Determination 

TSD (DOE, 2015)

CRI

Distributor Websites or 

Correlated Color T emperature (CCT ) Product Catalogs 

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Chapter 3; Section 3.4.2 of 

HID Final Determination 

TSD (DOE, 2015)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated

Distributor Websites or 

Ballast Price (2022$) Product Catalogs 

Fixture Price (2022$)

Chapter 7 & Appendix 6A; 

Table 6A.3.4 of HID Final 

Determination TSD (DOE, 

2015), Calculated

Disposal Cost (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Reference Case

Chapter 9; Section 9.2.2.1 

of HID Final 

Determination TSD (DOE, 

2015)

Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online Labor Lamp Change (hours)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

179

Data Sources » Commercial Metal Halide High-Bay

DAT A SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock Average Installed Stock Average T ypical T ypical T ypical T ypical

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Reference Case

Assume Unchanged

Distributor Websites or 

Product Catalogs 

Calculated

Lamp Lumens 2016 EIA Reference Case; 

Calculated

Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

Assume Unchanged

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency

Chapter 5; Table 5.7.24 of 

HID Final Determination 

TSD (DOE, 2015) Assume Unchanged

CRI Distributor Websites or 

Correlated Color T emperature (CCT ) Product Catalogs 

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Chapter 3; Section 3.4.2 of 

HID Final Determination 

TSD (DOE, 2015)

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated

Distributor Websites or 

Product Catalogs 

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$)

Chapter 7 & Appendix 6A; 

Table 6A.3.4 of HID Final 

Determination TSD (DOE, 

2015), Calculated

Disposal Cost (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated Calculated Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Reference Case

Chapter 9; Section 9.2.2.1 of 

HID Final Determination 

TSD (DOE, 2015)

Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online Labor Lamp Change (hours)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

180

Data Sources » Commercial Sodium Vapor High-Bay

DAT A SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock Average Installed Stock Average T ypical T ypical T ypical T ypical

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Reference Case Assume Unchanged

Distributor Websites or 

Product Catalogs 

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency

Chapter 5; Table 5.7.24 of 

HID Final Determination 

TSD (DOE, 2015) Assume Unchanged

CRI Distributor Websites or 

Correlated Color T emperature (CCT ) Product Catalogs 

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Chapter 3; Section 3.4.2 of 

HID Final Determination 

TSD (DOE, 2015)

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated

Distributor Websites or 

Product Catalogs 

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$)

Chapter 7 & Appendix 6A; 

Table 6A.3.4 of HID Final 

Determination TSD (DOE, 

2015), Calculated

Disposal Cost (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated Calculated Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Reference Case

Chapter 9; Section 9.2.2.1 of HID Final Determination TSD (DOE, 2015)

Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online Labor Lamp Change (hours)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

181

Data Sources » Commercial T5 4xF54 HO High-bay

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock Average Installed Stock Average Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Reference Case Assume Unchanged

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) GSFL Ballast Final Rule TSD (DOE, 2020)

Assume Unchanged CRI

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp P rice (2022$)

2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs Ballast P rice (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$)

Chapter 7 & Appendix 6A; Table 6A.3.4 of 

HID Final Determination TSD (DOE, 

2015), Calculated

Disposal Cost (2022$) EPA, 2022

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 2016 EIA Reference Case; Calculated Calculated

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) (Navigant, 2019)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor System Installation (hours) 2016 EIA Reference Case 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

182

Data Sources » Commercial LED High-bay Luminaire 

DAT A SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High

Lamp Wattage 

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

2016 EIA Reference 

Case

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

N/A

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency N/A N/A

CRI

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color T emperature (CCT )

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Reference 

Case

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Reference 

Case Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

Refrigeration

183
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Compressor Rack Systems

A-3

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Capacity (kBtu/h) ADL, 1996 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Median Store Size (ft2

) 

Food 

Marketing 

Institute 

(FMI), 2012

CBECS 2018

Power Input (kW) Copeland, 

2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use (MMWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / 

NCI 

Analysis, 

2015

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Indexed Annual Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) KysorWarren, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

NCI, 2009 /

NCI 

Analysis, 

2012

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

NCI 

Analysis, 

2008

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Condensers

A-4

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Capacity (kBtu/h)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 / Heatcraft, 

2008 / ADL, 1996

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Median Store Size (ft2) 

Food Marketing 

Institute (FMI), 

2012

CBECS 2018

Power Input (kW)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 / Heatcraft, 

2008 / ADL, 1996

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(MMWh/y)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 / ADL, 1996 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Indexed Annual Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 / Heatcraft, 

2008 / RS Means, 

2007

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Supermarket Display Cases

A-2

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Median Store Size (ft2) 

Food Marketing 

Institute (FMI), 

2012

CBECS 2018

Case Length (ft) DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)1,2

DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use / Case 

Length (kWh/ft) Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency3 Calculated

Average Life (years) DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)

DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / The Restaurant Store

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)4

DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Reach-In Refrigerators

A-7

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h)ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report

Size (ft3) 

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites

DOE, 2014: CRE Report

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / ENERGY STAR 2022

Annual Energy Use / 

Volume (kWh/y/ft3)

NCI Analysis, 

2012 Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) Calculated

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$) ACEEE, 2002 DOE, 2014: CRE TSD

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996/ 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / ENERGY STAR 2022 / The Restaurant Store

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$) Calculated

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 

NCI Analysis, 

2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Reach-In Freezers

A-8

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity 

(Btu/h)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2016: CRE Report

Size (ft3) 

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites

DOE, 2016: CRE Report

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use / 

Volume (kWh/y/ft3)

NCI Analysis, 

2012 Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) ACEEE, 2002 DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment 

Cost (2022$)

ADL, 1996/ 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / ENERGY STAR 2022 / The Restaurant Store

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

A-5

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity 

(Btu/h) DOE CRE Report 2016 / CCMS 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Size (ft2) DOE 2014 WICF TSD / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use / 

Area (kWh/ft2/y) Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency Calculated

Insulated Box 

Average Life (years)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Compressor Average 

Life (years)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment 

Cost (2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Webstaurant 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Webstaurant 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2023

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$)

ADL, 1996 / FMI, 

2005 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

A-6

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity 

(Btu/h)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE CRE Report 2016 / CCMS 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Size (ft2) ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 / 

NCI Analysis, 

2008

Guidehouse CRE Report 2016

Annual Energy Use / 

Area (kWh/ft2/y) Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency Calculated

Insulated Box Average 

Life (years)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Compressor Average 

Life (years)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Webstaurant 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Webstaurant 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2023

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$) DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Ice Machines

A-9

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Output (pounds [lbs] per 

day)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022 / CCMS Database 2022

Water Use per Hundred 

Pounds (gal/hundred lbs)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites

DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022 / CCMS Database 2022

Energy Use per Hundred 

Pounds (kWh/hundred 

lbs)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ACEEE, 2002 /

NCI Analysis, 

2012

DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022 / ENERGY STAR

Indexed Annual EfficiencyCalculated

Average Life (years)

ADL, 1996/ 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Total Installed Cost (with 

Bin)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Beverage Merchandisers

A-10

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Size (ft3

) 

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor 

Web Sites

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / 

NCI 

Analysis, 

2008

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / ENERGY STAR 2022

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/ft3

/y) Calculated

Indexed Annual Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) ACEEE, 2002 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor 

Web Sites

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / KaTom Restaurant Supply

Total Installed Cost (2022$) DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

A-11

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h)

DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD / 

Guidehouse 

Analysis, 

2015

DOE, 2022: BVM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Can Capacity DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Size (ft3) DOE, 2022: BVM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y) DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/ft3/y) Calculated

Indexed Annual Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Total Installed Cost (2022$) DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD / 

Guidehouse 

Analysis, 

2015

DOE, 2022: BVM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) DOE, 2022: BVM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022
Final

Commercial Ventilation 

194
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Constant Air Volume Ventilation

A-12

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

System Airflow (CFM) CBECS 2003 & 

BED 2007 CBECS 2018

System Fan Power (kW) ASHRAE 90.1-

2007

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016

ASHRAE 90.1-

2019 Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) ASHRAE 90.1 2019 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)

Average Life (years) ASHRAE: Service Life Database

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Variable Air Volume Ventilation

A-13

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

System Airflow (CFM) CBECS 2003 

& BED 2007 CBECS 2018

System Fan Power (kW) 

ASHRAE 

90.1-2007

ASHRAE 

90.1-2016

ASHRAE 

90.1-2019 Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) ASHRAE 90.1 2019 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)

Average Life (years) ASHRAE: Service Life Database

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/thousand 

CFM) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Fan Coil Unit

A-14

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

System Airflow (CFM) Product Literature

System Fan Power (kW) 

ASHRAE 90.1-

2007

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016

ASHRAE 90.1-

2019 Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) ASHRAE 90.1 2019 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)

Average Life (years) ASHRAE: Service Life Database

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated
Final

Appendix B

References

198

Guidehouse

1200 19th Street, NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

And

Leidos

11951 Freedom Drive 

Reston, VA 20190
Final References

• ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database. (n.d.).

• ASHRAE 90.1-2010, 2016, 2019. Energy Standard for Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential Buildings

• Appliance Magazine. (2005). Portrait of the U.S. Appliance Industry. Appliance Magazine.

• Arthur D. Little. (1996). Energy Savings Potential for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment.

• DOE SSL Program. (2012a). 2010 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization

• DOE SSL Program. (2012b). Residential Lighting End-Use Consumption Study: Estimation Framework and Initial Estimates

• DOE SSL Program. (2017). 2015 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization

• DOE Appliance and Equipment Standards Program. (2022). The Compliance Certification Database.

• EERE. (2014). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Automatic Commercial Ice Makers

• EERE. (2014). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Commercial Refrigeration Equipment.

• EERE. (2014). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines

• EERE. (2015). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Walk-in Coolers and Freezers.

• ENERGY STAR. (n.d.). Retrieved November 2015, from ENERGY STAR Products: 

http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=products.pr_find_es_products

• ENERGY STAR. (2020) from ENERGY STAR Lamps Specification Version 2.1: 

https://www.energystar.gov/sites/default/files/Lamps%20V2.1%20Final%20Specification%20%28Revised%20June%202

020%29_0.pdf

B-1
Final References

• ENERGY STAR. (2014) ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs) Eligibility 

Criteria Version 1.1

• ENERGY STAR. (2012) ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Luminaires (Light Fixtures) 

Eligibility Criteria Version 1.1

• Environmental Protection Agency. (2022). Establishing a Recycling Program for Mercury-Containing Light Bulbs. From: 

https://www.epa.gov/hw/establishing-recycling-program-mercury-containing-light-bulbs

• Federal Standard. (1975). National energy conservation standards authorized under the Energy and Policy 

Conservation Act of 2007 (EPCA 1975).

• Federal Standard. (2005). National energy conservation standards authorized under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 

(EPACT 2005).

• Federal Standard. (2007). National energy conservation standards authorized under the Energy Independence and 

Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007).

• Food Marketing Institute. (n.d.). Retrieved May 2022, from FMI Supermarket Facts: https://www.fmi.org/ourresearch/supermarket-facts/average-total-store-size-square-feetLighting Research Institute. (1992). Specifier Reports, 

Specular Reflectors.

• KaTom. (n.d.) Retrieved May 2022, From: https://www.katom.com/

• Navigant Consulting, Inc. (2009). Energy Savings Potential and R&D Opportunities for Commercial Refrigeration.

• Navigant Consulting, Inc. (n.d.). In House Expertise.

B-2
Final References

• Navigant Consulting, Inc. (2019). Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications, Model. https://www.energy.gov/eere/ssl/downloads/2019-ssl-forecast-report

• Product Literature. (n.d.). Literature from manufacturers and experts on specific products

• The Restaurant Store. (n.d.). Retrieved May 2022, From: https://www.therestaurantstore.com/

• RS Means Online. (2022). Retrieved June 2022, From: https://www.rsmeansonline.com/

• Webstaurant. (n.d.) Retrieved May 2022, From: https://www.webstaurantstore.com/

B-3
January 2023

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies 5

APPENDIX D
Final

EIA - Technology Forecast Updates – Residential 

and Commercial Building Technologies –

Advanced Case

Presented to:

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Prepared by: 

Guidehouse

1200 19th Street, NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

And

Leidos

11951 Freedom Drive

Reston, VA 20190

October 14, 2022
Final

DISCLAIMER

This presentation was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United 

States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, 

makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of 

any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference 

herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily 

constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency, contractor or

subcontractor thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States 

Government or any agency thereof. 

October 2022

2
Final Table of Contents

Page

Objective

4

Methodology

5

Definitions

6

Calculations

7

Market Transformation

8

Residential Lighting

9

General Service 10

Reflector Lamps 14 4-foot Linear 2-lamp Lighting Systems 18

Outdoor Lamps 22

Commercial Lighting 26

General Service Lamps 27

Reflector Lamps 30 4-Foot Linear 2 Lamp Lighting Systems 33 8-Foot Linear 2 Lamp Lighting Systems 37

Low Bay Lighting Systems 41

High Bay Lighting Systems 44

Page

Commercial Refrigeration 47

Compressor Rack Systems 48

Condensers 50

Supermarket Display Cases 52

Reach-In Refrigerators 55

Reach-In Freezers 58

Walk-In Refrigerators 61

Walk-In Freezers 65

Ice Machines 69

Beverage Merchandisers 73

Refrigerated Vending Machines 76

Commercial Ventilation 79

Constant Air Volume 80

Variable Air Volume 82

Fan Coil Units 84

Appendix A: Data Sources

A-1

Appendix B: References

B-1
Final

4

Objective

The objective of this study is to develop baseline and projected performance and cost characteristics for residential and 

commercial end-use equipment in an Advanced Case that assumes accelerated adoption of energy-saving technologies 

due to increased R&D funding and market incentives.

• Examine 2012 and 2018 (commercial) and 2015 and 2020 (residential) baselines, as well as this year’s baseline (2022).

— Review literature, standards, installed base, contractor, and manufacturer information.

— Provide a relative comparison and characterization of the cost and efficiency of a generic product.

• Forecast technology improvements that are projected to be available through 2050.

— Review trends in standards, product enhancements, and research and development (R&D).

— Project impact of product improvements and technology enhancement.

The performance and cost characterization of end-use equipment developed in this study will assist EIA in 

projecting national primary energy consumption.
Final

5

Input from industry stakeholders, including government, R&D organizations, and manufacturers, was used to 

project product enhancements concerning equipment performance and cost attributes.

• Technology forecasting involves many uncertainties.

• Technology developments affect performance and cost forecasts.

• Varied sources ensure a balanced view of technology progress and the probable timing of commercial 

availability.

Methodology
Final

The following tables represent the current and projected efficiencies for residential and commercial building equipment ranging from the installed base in 2012 

and 2018 (for commercial products) and 2015 and 2020 (for residential) to the highest efficiency equipment that is expected to be commercially available by 2050, 

assuming incremental adoption. Below are definitions for the terms used in characterizing the status of each technology.

— Installed Stock Average: the installed and in use equipment for that year. Represents the installed stock of equipment, but does not represent sales.

— Current Standard: the minimum efficiency (or maximum energy use) required (allowed) by current U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) standards, when 

applicable. For lighting, if no product exists at the standard efficiency level, a hypothetical wattage and lumen output is given for the standard’s 

efficiency level.

— ENERGY STAR® : the minimum efficiency required (or maximum energy use allowed) to meet the ENERGY STAR® criteria, when applicable. Presented 

performance data represents certified products just meeting current ENERGY STAR specifications. For lighting, if no products exist at the ENERGY 

STAR efficiency level, a hypothetical wattage and lumen output is given for the ENERGY STAR efficiency level. 

— Low: The minimum efficiency product or product mix available on the market. This rating typically reflects minimal compliance with DOE standards. 

— Typical: the average, or typical, product being sold in the particular timeframe.

— High: the product with the highest efficiency available in the particular timeframe.

— Lumens (lm): the unit for luminous flux used in the SI unit system. This unit is used to indicate a light source’s light output. All reported lumens are 

initial lumens. 1 kilolumen (klm) = 1,000 lumens.

— Correlated Color Temperature (CCT): a specification of the color appearance of the light emitted by a lamp. Note: CCT is not a performance metric.

— Color Rendering Index (CRI): a scale from 0 to 100 percent indicating how accurate a given light source is at rendering color when compared to a 

reference light source. The higher the CRI, the better the color rendering ability.

— British thermal unit (Btu): a measure of the heat content of fuels or energy sources. It is the quantity of heat required to raise the temperature of one 

pound of liquid water by 1°F at the temperature that water has its greatest density (approximately 39 °F ). 1 kBtu = 1,000 Btu.

— Cubic Feet per Minute (CFM): a measure of airflow volume equal to the number of cubic feet of air flowing through a two-dimensional plane in one 

minute. 

— Not Available (N/A): data is not available where indicated. 

6

Definitions
Final

The following metrics are commonly referred to throughout the tables to follow. Below are the calculations for each metric

— Lighting

 System Wattage = (Lamp Wattage * Ballast Factor) / Ballast Efficiency

 System Lumens = Lamp Lumens * Ballast Factor

 Lamp Efficacy = Lamp Lumens / Lamp Wattage

 System Efficacy = System Lumens / System Wattage

 Lamp Cost ($/klm) = Lamp Cost / (Lamp Lumens / 1,000)

 Total Equipment Cost = Lamp Cost + Fixture (including ballast) Cost

 System Cost ($/klm) = Total Equipment Cost / (System Lumens / 1,000). l/b/fdenotes that the cost includes the luminaire, the ballast, and the fixture. 

 Total Installed Cost = Total Equipment Cost + Labor Installation Cost

 Ballast Luminous Efficiency (BLE) = A/(1+B*Avg Total Lamp Arc Power^(-C)) where A, B, and C are pre-defined constants by DOE Energy Conservation Standards for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts.

— Commercial Refrigeration

 Nominal Capacity over Average Input (Btu in / Btu out) = (Cooling or Heat Rejection Capacity)*24*365/(Annual Energy Consumption * 3,412)

 Total Installed Cost = Retail Equipment Cost + Labor Installation Cost

 Total Installed Cost ($/kBtu/hour) = Total Installed Cost*1,000 / (Cooling or Heat Rejection Capacity). h used as an abbreviation for hour throughout 

 Annual Maintenance Cost ($/kBtu/h) = Annual Maintenance Cost * 1,000 / (Cooling or Heat Rejection Capacity)

— Ventilation

 CFM out / Btu in / h = System Airflow / (System Fan Power * 3,412)

 Total Installed Cost ($/1,000 CFM) = Total Installed Cost * 1,000 / System Airflow

 Annual Maintenance Cost ($/1,000 CFM) = Annual Maintenance Cost * 1,000 / System Fan Power

7

Calculations
Final

8

Market Transformation

The market for the reviewed products has changed since this analysis was performed in 2015. These changes are noted 

and reflected in the efficiency and cost characteristics.

• DOE issued federal minimum efficiency standards that have gone into effect for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

(2012), Incandescent Reflector Lamps (2012), and Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts (2019). 

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lumens per watt (lm/W) backstop requirement 

for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (10 CFR 430, 87 FR 

27439). This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product 

classes, such as reflector lamps. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail 

and distribution in July 2023.

• DOE published a Final Rule updating energy conservation standards for Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines at 

the end of 2015, effective in 2018. DOE also issued federal minimum efficiency standards that have or will soon go into 

effect for Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines (2012), Automatic Commercial Ice Makers (2018), Walk-In Coolers 

and Freezers (2017), and Commercial Refrigeration Equipment (2017). 
Final

Residential Lighting

9

Note: More R&D investment and effort in the lighting industry only 

changes projections of LED technologies because additional funding 

and effort will likely not be applied to traditional technologies that 

have been exceeded in performance by their LED counterparts. 

Therefore, the inputs for all non-LED technologies remain unchanged 

from the Reference Case and are not included in this report. 
Final

10

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Lamps

The residential general service lamps characterized in this report are a 60-watt and a 75-watt medium screw-based (E26) A-type incandescent lamp and their halogen, CFL, and LED equivalents. 

A standard 60-watt incandescent lamp produces approximately 800 – 850 lumens. A standard 75-watt incandescent lamp produces approximately 1,100 lumens. 

Performance: 

• A majority of residential lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 5,000K 

(daylight), and 6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is advised to chose a 

product with a similar CCT value in order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100. However, CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. 

CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination. High CRI products are preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. Higher 

CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical lamp prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and 

features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Fixture prices and installation costs are not included for the residential sector. Labor costs are assumed to be negligible because homeowners likely replaces lamps themselves as they burn 

out. Therefore, total installed cost is the price of a lamp, and annual maintenance costs are the cost of replacing the lamps, which is a function of lamp life, lamp price, and the annual 

operating hours. 

• Disposal costs are not characterized for residential lighting in this analysis. In residential cases, disposal is done by the occupant. Lamp and product burnout are assumed to result in no 

"added" cost aside from the work performed to install the replacement. 

Legislation:

• The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) established standards for 60-watt general service lamps, effective in 2014, and 75-watt lamps, effective in 2013. These 

standards cannot be achieved by incandescent bulbs, but can be by halogen, CFL, and LED technologies. 

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps. These standards can not be 

achieved by traditional incandescent or halogen technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry, they will likely not be met. It is currently assumed 

that industry will increase its investment in LED technology at the expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in 

January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service omnidirectional lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 70 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 80 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90. 

Additionally, the lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).
Final

11

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Lamps

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and price for 

products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent, 

halogen, and fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050: 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements 

as of 2022.

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% Improvements in efficacy can be made by using more rare-earth phosphors in compact fluorescent 

lamps. 
Final

12

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service LED Lamps (60 W Incandescent Equivalent)

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 8.7 9.2 10.0 8.9 8.0 13.8 17.8 5.7 5.1 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.4

Lamp Lumens 656 803 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 75.5 87.1 80.0 90.0 100.0 80.0 45.0 141.5 157.2 180.2 200.2 209.0 232.1

CRI 81 85 80 81 90 80 N/A 81 90 81 90 81 90

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 25 21 15 14 18 15 N/A 14 18 14 18 14 18

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 657 657 657 657 657 657 N/A 657 657 657 657 657 657

Lamp Price (2022$) $13.53 $4.56 $6.20 $3.92 $5.32 $6.20 N/A $3.23 $4.39 $2.84 $3.86 $2.46 $3.33

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $20.63 $5.68 $7.75 $4.90 $6.65 $7.75 N/A $7.02 $7.02 $3.57 $3.57 $2.38 $2.38

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $13.53 $4.56 $6.20 $3.92 $5.32 $6.20 N/A $3.23 $4.39 $2.84 $3.86 $2.46 $3.33 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.35 $0.15 $0.27 $0.18 $0.19 $0.27 N/A $0.15 $0.16 $0.13 $0.14 $0.11 $0.12 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $20.63 $5.68 $7.75 $4.90 $6.65 $7.75 N/A $4.04 $5.49 $3.56 $4.83 $3.07 $4.17 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.54 $0.18 $0.34 $0.22 $0.24 $0.34 N/A $0.18 $0.20 $0.16 $0.17 $0.14 $0.15 

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy 

and Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED 

lighting products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.
Final

13

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential General Service Filament-LED Lamps (60 W Incandescent Equivalent)

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 9.7 7.1 5.5 6.9 8.0 13.8 17.8 5.4 5.1 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.4

Lamp Lumens 457 650 450 650 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 47.1 91.7 81.8 94.8 100.0 80.0 45.0 149.0 157.2 189.8 200.2 220.0 232.1

CRI 82 84 90 84 80 80 N/A 81 90 81 90 81 90

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 23 21 15 15 15 15 N/A 15 15 15 15 15 15

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 657 657 657 657 657 N/A N/A 657 657 657 657 657 657

Lamp Price (2022$) $15.17 $6.88 $6.25 $5.91 $7.75 N/A N/A $4.87 $6.39 $4.29 $5.62 $3.70 $4.86

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $33.20 $10.58 $13.89 $9.09 $9.69 N/A N/A $7.02 $7.02 $3.57 $3.57 $2.38 $2.38

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $15.17 $6.88 $6.25 $5.91 $7.75 N/A N/A $4.87 $6.39 $4.29 $5.62 $3.70 $4.86 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.43 $0.21 $0.27 $0.26 $0.34 N/A N/A $0.21 $0.28 $0.19 $0.25 $0.16 $0.21 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $33.20 $10.58 $13.89 $9.09 $9.69 N/A N/A $6.09 $7.99 $5.36 $7.03 $4.63 $6.07 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.93 $0.33 $0.61 $0.40 $0.42 N/A N/A $0.27 $0.35 $0.23 $0.31 $0.20 $0.27 

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy 

and Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED 

lighting products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.
Final

14

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector Lamps

The residential reflector lamps characterized in this report are directional lamps that emit approximately 550 – 850 lumens (except for LED PAR38s which have outputs up to 1,700 

lumens). Multiple baseline reflector lamps were analyzed, including 65W Incandescent BR30, Halogen PAR30, Halogen Infrared Reflector (HIR) PAR30, CFL BR30, LED BR30, and 

LED PAR38. 

Performance: 

• A majority of residential lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 

5,000K (daylight), and 6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is 

advised to chose a product with a similar CCT value in order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100, but for CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average 

around 80. CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination, with high CRI products being preferable for retail and display applications where improved color 

quality is of real value. Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these very specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. 

• Fixture prices and installation costs are not included for the residential sector. Labor costs are assumed to be negligible because homeowners likely replaces lamps themselves as 

they burn out. Therefore, total installed cost is the price of a lamp, and annual maintenance costs are the cost of replacing the lamps, which is a function of lamp life, lamp price, 

and the annual operating hours. 

• Disposal costs are not characterized for residential lighting in this analysis. In residential cases, disposal is done by the occupant. Lamp and product burnout are assumed to result 

in no "added" cost aside from the work performed to install the replacement. 

Legislation:

• EPAct92 established minimum performance standards for some reflector lamps and provided exemptions for certain specialty applications (e.g., ER/BR, vibration service, more 

than 5% neodymium oxide, impact resistant, infrared heat, colored). EPAct92 effectively phased-out R-shaped tungsten filament incandescent reflector lamps at certain wattages 

and bulb diameters, replacing them with more efficient and cost effective tungsten-halogen parabolic aluminized reflector (PAR) lamps. EISA 2007 took away certain exemptions 

from EPACT 1992, requiring certain previously exempted lamps to meet EPAct92 minimum performance standards by January 1, 2008. The 65W BR30, a large majority of the 

incandescent reflector lamp market, was still exempted until 2022. 

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps. These standards 

can not be achieved by traditional incandescent or halogen technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry, they will likely not be met. It 

is currently assumed that industry will increase its investment in LED technology at the expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for 

manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.
Final

15

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector Lamps

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service, reflector lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 61 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 70 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90, 

respectively. Additionally, the lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and price for 

products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements 

as of 2022.

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% In addition to higher efficiency reflector coatings, improvements in efficacy can be made by using 

more rare-earth phosphors in compact fluorescent lamps. Lifetime improvements can be made by 

improving the compact fluorescent lamp electrodes.
Final

16

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector LED BR30

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED lighting 

products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 14.2 10.9 11.0 8.8 7.2 10.7 14.4 5.5 4.7 4.8 4.1 4.2 3.7

Lamp Lumens 706 781 800 683 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 49.8 71.5 72.7 78.6 90.3 61.0 45.0 119.2 137.0 136.3 156.7 153.4 176.3

CRI 82 85 92 87 90 80 N/A 87 90 87 90 87 90

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 25 25 25 19 18 15 N/A 19 18 19 18 19 18

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 730 730 730 730 730 N/A N/A 730 730 730 730 730 730

Lamp Price (2022$) $21.40 $15.36 $4.09 $5.01 $5.96 N/A N/A $4.11 $4.89 $3.62 $4.31 $3.14 $3.74

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $30.31 $19.66 $5.11 $7.33 $9.17 N/A N/A $6.32 $7.53 $5.57 $6.64 $4.83 $5.75

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $21.40 $15.36 $4.09 $5.01 $5.96 N/A N/A $4.11 $4.89 $3.62 $4.31 $3.14 $3.74 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.63 $0.45 $0.12 $0.20 $0.24 N/A N/A $0.16 $0.19 $0.14 $0.17 $0.12 $0.15 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $30.31 $19.66 $5.11 $7.33 $9.17 N/A N/A $6.32 $7.53 $5.57 $6.64 $4.83 $5.75

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.89 $0.57 $0.15 $0.29 $0.37 N/A N/A $0.25 $0.30 $0.22 $0.26 $0.19 $0.23 
Final

17

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Reflector LED PAR38

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 19.2 15.5 17.0 16.4 17.0 10.7 29.9 10.8 11.2 9.4 9.8 8.4 8.7

Lamp Lumens 1,202 1,211 1,200 1,344 1,700 650 1,344 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 62.7 77.9 70.6 82.0 100.0 61.0 45.0 124.5 151.7 142.4 173.6 160.2 195.3

CRI 83 86 82 86 82 80 N/A 86 86 86 86 86 86

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,000 3,000 2,700 3,000 3,000 2,700 N/A 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 27 25 27 25 15 N/A 27 25 27 25 27 25

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 730 730 730 730 730 N/A N/A 730 730 730 730 730 730

Lamp Price (2022$) $35.23 $22.44 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $29.31 $18.54 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $35.23 $22.44 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1.07 $0.60 $0.69 $0.62 $0.46 N/A N/A $0.52 $0.38 $0.46 $0.34 $0.41 $0.31 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $29.31 $18.54 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.89 $0.49 $0.58 $0.46 $0.27 N/A N/A $0.39 $0.23 $0.35 $0.20 $0.31 $0.18 

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress presed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023, and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED lighting 

products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.
Final

18

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential 4-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

This section characterizes commercial linear fixtures that house two 4ft long linear lamps and their integrated luminaire equivalents. The technologies available for this system are linear fluorescent and 

LED. 

• T5 lamps are approximately 40% narrower than T8 lamps and almost 60% narrower than T12 lamps. This narrowness allows T5 lamps to be coated with higher quality, more efficient phosphor 

blends than larger diameter lamps, resulting in a more efficacious lamp. The compact size of T5 lamps also permits greater flexibility in lighting design and construction.

• LED options for linear fixtures include replacement lamps that can fit directly into an existing fixture and fully integrated luminaires that can be used to replace existing fixtures. LED replacement 

lamps are also known as TLEDs. Type A TLEDs can be installed with existing ballasts and Type B and C TLEDs require the ballast to be disconnected. Replacement lamps are only sold to go into 

existing fixtures. If a new fixture is to be installed, a fully integrated LED luminaire is a more cost effective and efficient option. Because LED luminaires are fully integrated, they do not have lamp 

and fixture efficiency losses associated with ballasts and fixture optics.

Performance: 

• Residential linear lamps often have a nominal CCT rating of 3500K, but products with CCTs of 3000K, 4000K, and 4100K (neutral white) are also common. 5000K (daylight) lamps are available as 

well. When replacing a light bulb, it is important to choose a product with a similar CCT value to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100, but CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. CRI values of 

80 are considered suitable for general illumination, with high CRI products being preferable for retail and display applicationswhere improved color quality is of real value. Higher CRI is not 

expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these very specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• Many factors influence the price of LED lamps, including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical lamp prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and features 

were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamps. which are sold 

only as a replacement for use in an existing fixture. The LED luminaire is more efficient and cost effective for new installations or fixture retrofits.

• Labor costs for lamp changes are assumed to be negligible because homeowners likely replace lamps themselves as they burn out. Therefore, annual maintenance costs are the cost of the 

replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and the annual operating hours for residential linear systems. 

• Disposal costs are not characterized for residential lighting in this analysis. In residential cases, disposal is done by theoccupant. Lamp and product burnout are assumed to result in no "added" 

cost aside from the work performed to install the replacement. 

Legislation:

• Beginning July 14, 2012 (or July 14, 2014, for T8 700-series phosphor lamps), DOE fluorescent lamp standards required a minimum efficacy of 89 lm/W. Although the amended performance-based 

standards do not explicitly prohibit T12 lamps, no T12 lamps met the standard at the time of its announcement. Since then, however, T12 lamps meeting the standard have entered the market.

• Beginning November 14, 2014, DOE standards required that the characterized residential ballasts have a minimum BLE = 0.993 / (1 + 0.41 * Avg Total Lamp Arc power ^ (- 0.25)). Residential ballasts 

also must have a minimum power factor of 0.5.

• California's Title 24 mandates the use of electronic ballasts with high efficacy luminaires (including fluorescent) of 13 W or higher (CEC, 2005).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover linear lamps. (ENERGY STAR, 2020)
Final

19

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential 4-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume that manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and 

price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050: 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

T12 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T8 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T5 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

20

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Linear LED Replacement Lamp 2-Lamp System

1. N/A because a fixture and an LED replacement lamp would not be purchased separately for a new installation or retrofit when there are integrated LED luminaires that are more 

efficient and cost effective. These lamps are sold only as replacements to go into existing fixtures. 

Assume no labor is associated with lamp replacement in the residential sector because residents likely replace the lamps themselves. 

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 18.5 16.3 16.0 13.7 11.0 8.9 7.2 7.7 7.2 7.7 7.2

Lamp Lumens 2,013 2,130 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 111.0 130.7 112.5 140.1 163.6 216.1 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0

System Wattage 36.9 32.6 32.0 27.4 22.0 17.8 14.4 15.4 14.4 15.4 14.4

System Lumens 3,583 4,004 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456

System Efficacy (lm/W) 97.0 122.8 108.0 134.5 157.1 207.4 240.0 240.0 240.0 240.0 240.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 83 81 82 81 80 81 80 81 80 81 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 3,500 4,100 4,100 5,000 4,100 5,000 4,100 5,000 4,100 5,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 55 50 50 54 50 54 50 54 50 54 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584

Lamp Price (2022$) $27.00 $12.89 $14.63 $11.11 $4.28 $9.97 $3.84 $9.87 $3.80 $9.77 $3.77 

Ballast Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $13.41 $6.05 $8.13 $5.79 $2.38 $5.19 $2.13 $5.14 $2.11 $5.09 $2.09 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $15.07 $6.44 $8.47 $6.03 $2.48 $5.41 $2.22 $5.35 $2.20 $5.30 $2.18 

Labor Cost (2022$/h)2 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $54.00 $25.78 $29.26 $22.22 $8.56 $19.95 $7.68 $19.74 $7.60 $19.55 $7.53 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.57 $0.30 $0.34 $0.24 $0.10 $0.22 $0.09 $0.21 $0.09 $0.21 $0.09 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $15.07 $6.44 $8.47 $6.03 $2.48 $5.41 $2.22 $5.35 $2.20 $5.30 $2.18 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.16 $0.08 $0.10 $0.07 $0.03 $0.06 $0.03 $0.06 $0.03 $0.06 $0.03 
Final

21

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Linear LED Luminaire

1. N/A because the lamp and fixture are both included in the luminaire. 

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 50.0 43.1 49.0 44.0 35.0 27.4 21.8 23.0 19.2 21.2 19.2

System Lumens 4,615 4,945 5,024 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800

System Efficacy (lm/W) 92.3 114.7 102.5 120.5 137.1 193.4 220.1 230.4 250.0 250.0 250.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 83 82 80 79 80 79 80 79 80 79 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,838 3,000 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 56 58 54 53 50 53 50 53 50 53 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) $181.60 $158.60 $144.85 $152.54 $207.80 $121.11 $164.98 $105.34 $143.50 $90.11 $122.76 

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm)

1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $78.70 $64.15 $57.66 $57.54 $86.58 $45.68 $68.74 $39.74 $59.79 $33.99 $51.15 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $80.90 $80.90 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours)* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $403.65 $357.65 $322.70 $338.08 $448.60 $275.22 $362.97 $243.68 $320.01 $213.23 $278.52 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $2.89 $2.49 $2.40 $2.56 $3.52 $2.12 $2.89 $1.91 $2.58 $1.70 $2.27 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $87.46 $72.33 $64.23 $63.76 $93.46 $51.91 $75.62 $45.96 $66.67 $40.22 $58.03 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $0.63 $0.50 $0.48 $0.48 $0.73 $0.40 $0.60 $0.36 $0.54 $0.32 $0.47 
Final

22

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps

• The residential outdoor lamps characterized in this report include reflector and general service lamps used for security and/or porch lighting that can be switched on from inside 

the home (i.e. parking lot/garage and outdoor common area lighting at multifamily buildings are excluded) with lumen outputs of approximately 1,000 – 1,400 lumens. Multiple 

baseline lamps were analyzed according to estimates of installed base average lumens by lamp type, including: 

Performance: 

• 65W BR30 is the only viable incandescent reflector lamp due to exemption from EISA 2007. The lumen output of this lamp type is well below other reflector lamp technologies 

characterized for residential outdoor spaces, thus its use is limited for this application. This product is, as of 2022, expected to be eliminated by DOE’s 45 lm/W backstop 

requirement.

• A majority of residential lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 

5,000K (daylight), and 6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is 

advised to chose a product with a similar CCT value in order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100. However, CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average 

around 80. CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination. High CRI products are preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is 

of real value. Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical lamp prices in 2015 reflecting a mix of lamp 

characteristics and features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Fixture prices and installation costs are not included for the residential sector. Labor costs are assumed to be negligible because homeowners likely replaces lamps themselves as 

they burn out. Therefore, total installed cost is the price of a lamp, and annual maintenance costs are the cost of replacing the lamps, which is a function of lamp life, lamp price, 

and the annual operating hours for residential reflector lamps. 

• Disposal costs are not characterized for residential lighting in this analysis. In residential cases, disposal is done by the occupant. Lamp and product burnout are assumed to result 

in no "added" cost aside from the work performed to install the replacement. 

Security(Reflector Lamps) Porch (GeneralService Lamps)

Incandescent BR30 IncandescentA-Type

Halogen PAR38 Halogen A-Type

Halogen Infrared Reflector (HIR) PAR38 CFL Bare Spiral

CFL PAR38 LED A-Type Lamp

LED PAR38
Final

23

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps

Legislation:

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps. These standards 

can not be achieved by traditional incandescent or halogen technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry, they will likely not be met. It 

is currently assumed that industry will increase its investment in LED technology at the expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for 

manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service omnidirectional lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 70 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 80 lm/W for lamps with 

CRI < 90. 

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service reflector lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 61 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 70 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90. 

• Additionally, the lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and price for 

products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 

Omnidirectional

0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Incandescent Directional 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% In addition to benefiting from higher efficiency reflector coatings, improvements in efficacy can be made by using more rareearth phosphors in compact fluorescent lamps. Lifetime improvements can be made by improving the compact fluorescent 

lamp electrodes.
Final

24

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: LED Reflector)

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 19.2 15.5 17.0 16.4 17.0 10.7 29.9 10.8 11.2 9.4 9.8 8.4 8.7

Lamp Lumens 1,202 1,211 1,200 1,344 1,700 650 1,344 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 62.7 77.9 70.6 82.0 100.0 61.0 45.0 124.5 151.7 142.4 173.6 160.2 195.3

CRI 83 86 82 86 82 80 N/A 86 86 86 86 86 86

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,000 3,000 2,700 3,000 3,000 2,700 N/A 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 24 27 25 27 25 15 N/A 27 25 27 25 27 25

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 730 730 730 730 730 N/A N/A 730 730 730 730 730 730

Lamp Price (2022$) $35.23 $22.44 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $29.31 $18.54 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $35.23 $22.44 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1.07 $0.60 $0.69 $0.62 $0.46 N/A N/A $0.52 $0.38 $0.46 $0.34 $0.41 $0.31 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $29.31 $18.54 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/klm) $0.89 $0.49 $0.58 $0.46 $0.27 N/A N/A $0.39 $0.23 $0.35 $0.20 $0.31 $0.18 

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 

2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress presed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED lighting 

products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.
Final

25

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Porch: LED A-Type)

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2015 2020 2022 20231 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 12.9 11.8 13.5 11.9 11.0 13.6 24.4 7.6 7.0 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.7

Lamp Lumens 1,073 1,102 1,100 1,089 1,100 1,089 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 83.1 93.5 81.5 92.2 100.0 80 45.0 144.9 157.2 184.6 200.2 214.0 232.1

CRI 81 85 80 86 80 80 N/A 86 80 86 80 86 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2,700 2,700 3,000 2,700 2,700 2,700 N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 25 21 25 18 25 N/A N/A 18 25 18 25 18 25

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 657 657 657 657 657 N/A N/A 657 657 657 657 657 657

Lamp Price (2022$) $18.13 $8.48 $4.39 $3.92 $5.29 N/A N/A $3.23 $4.36 $2.84 $3.84 $2.46 $3.31

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $16.90 $7.70 $3.99 $3.60 $4.81 N/A N/A $7.02 $7.02 $3.57 $3.57 $2.38 $2.38

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A N/A $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Labor Lamp Installation (hours) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $18.13 $8.48 $4.39 $3.92 $5.29 N/A N/A $3.23 $4.36 $2.84 $3.84 $2.46 $3.31 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $0.49 $0.27 $0.12 $0.14 $0.14 N/A N/A $0.12 $0.11 $0.10 $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $16.90 $7.70 $3.99 $3.60 $4.81 N/A N/A $2.94 $3.97 $2.59 $3.49 $2.23 $3.01 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/klm) $0.45 $0.24 $0.10 $0.13 $0.13 N/A N/A $0.11 $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 $0.08 $0.08 

1. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress presed in the Energy Policy and 

Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED lighting 

products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.
Final

Commercial Lighting

26

Note: More R&D investment and effort in the lighting industry will 

only change future projections of LED technologies because additional 

funding and effort will likely not be applied to traditional technologies 

that have been exceeded in performance by their LED counterparts. 

Therefore, the inputs for all non-LED technologies remain unchanged 

from the Reference Case and are therefore not included in this report. 

. 
Final

27

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial General Service Lamps in Recessed Can Fixtures

This section characterizes commercial omnidirectional incandescent, halogen, CFL, and LED screw-based general service lamps emitting approximately 1,600 lumens (equivalent to a 100W incandescent lamp) used 

in recessed can fixtures. A recessed can is a directional fixture set into the ceiling, in which all of the light is directed downwards from the opening. Therefore, an omnidirectional lamp is not well suited for use in 

such fixtures because light that emits upwards and out of the sides must be reflected downwards and out of the fixture and some light is absorbed in the process. A fixture efficiency of 61% is used to characterize 

these lumen losses for all omnidirectional lamps. For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each 

year.

Performance: 

• A majority of general service lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 5,000K (daylight), and 

6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is advised to chose a product with a similar CCT value in 

order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100. However, CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. CRI values of 80 are 

considered suitable for general illumination. High CRI products are preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for 

future LED products except for these specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamps which are sold only as a 

replacement for use in an existing fixture. There are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient and cost effective for new installations or fixture retrofits. Many factors influence the price of LED lamps 

including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore typical lamp prices in 2015 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and 

high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and the annual operating 

hours for commercial general service lamps (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for high intensity discharge (HID) lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

Legislation:

• The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) established standards for 100W lamps effective in 2012. These standards cannot be achieved by incandescent bulbs, but they can be met by 

halogen, CFL, and LED technologies from 2012 to 2023.

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. This action 

also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps.These standards can not be achieved by traditional incandescent or halogen 

technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry, they will likely not be met. It is currently assumed that industry will increase its investment in LED technology at the 

expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023.

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service omnidirectional lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 70 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 80 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90. Additionally, the 

lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).
Final

28

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial General Service Lamps in Recessed Can Fixtures

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus would be on improving efficacy, lifetime, 

and price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050.

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements 

as of 2022

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% Improvements in efficacy can be made by using more rare-earth phosphors in compact fluorescent 

lamps. Lifetime improvements can be made by improving the compact fluorescent lamp electrodes.
Final

29

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial General Service 100W Equivalent LED Replacement Lamp in Recessed Can 

Fixture

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

1. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 2020)

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress presedin the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. The new minimum efficacy 

requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. All LED lighting products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.

3. Based on a fixture efficiency of 61% for an omnidirectional lamp installed in a recessed can fixture. 

DATA

2012 2018 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR1 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 26.7 14.5 16.0 14.8 13.0 20.0 34.8 9.4 8.3 7.4 6.5 6.4 6.4

Lamp Lumens 1,600 1,528 1,600 1,567 1,600 1,600 1,567 1,567 1,600 1,567 1,600 1,567 1,600

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 60.0 105.1 100.0 106.0 123.1 80.0 45.0 166.7 193.5 212.2 246.4 246.1 250.0

System Wattage 26.7 14.5 16.0 14.8 13.0 20.0 34.8 9.4 8.3 7.4 6.5 6.4 6.4

System Lumens3 976 932 976 956 976 976 956 956 976 956 976 956 976

System Efficacy (lm/W) 36.6 64.1 61.0 64.7 75.1 48.8 27.5 101.7 118.0 129.5 150.3 150.1 152.5

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 80 80 90 84.8 84 80 N/A 84.8 84.8 84.8 84.8 84.8 84.8

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,000 3,000 2,700 2,700 5,000 N/A N/A 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 22.0 17.9 25.0 16.9 25.0 15.0 N/A 16.9 25.0 16.9 25.0 16.9 25.0

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 N/A N/A 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928

Lamp Price (2022$) $47.45 $11.28 $5.62 $7.04 $3.39 N/A N/A $5.81 $2.80 $5.11 $2.46 $4.41 $2.12

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $23.72 $26.38 $22.07 $22.07 $22.07 N/A N/A $21.20 $21.20 $20.17 $20.17 $19.18 $19.18

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $25.00 $7.38 $3.51 $4.49 $2.12 N/A N/A $3.71 $1.75 $3.26 $1.54 $2.82 $1.33

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $72.92 $40.40 $28.37 $30.46 $26.09 N/A N/A $28.26 $24.59 $26.45 $23.18 $24.68 $21.83 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 N/A N/A $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 N/A N/A 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $148.39 $114.88 $93.69 $95.11 $91.46 N/A N/A $93.01 $90.00 $91.27 $88.63 $89.59 $87.30 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $11.49 $4.16 $1.76 $3.02 $1.32 N/A N/A $2.66 $1.20 $2.45 $1.14 $2.25 $1.07

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $152.04 $123.25 $95.99 $99.52 $93.71 N/A N/A $97.32 $92.21 $95.51 $90.81 $93.75 $89.45 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $11.77 $4.46 $1.80 $3.16 $1.35 N/A N/A $2.78 $1.23 $2.57 $1.16 $2.35 $1.10
Final

30

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reflector Lamps in Recessed Can Fixtures

This section characterizes commercial halogen, halogen infrared reflector (HIR), and LED screw-based reflector lamps emitting approximately 1400 lumens used in recessed can fixtures. 

• HIR lamps contain a tungsten halogen capsule with a film coating on the inside of the capsule. The coating reflects infrared radiation back into the lamp filament, which forces the filament to 

burn at a higher temperature. This design increases the efficacy of the lamp, without reducing operating life.

• A recessed can is a directional fixture set into the ceiling, in which all of the light is directed downwards from the opening. Therefore, a reflector lamp, which employs reflective coating to 

direct light out in only one direction, is well suited for use in such fixtures. However, some light is not able to escape the fixture, and a fixture efficiency of 93% is used to characterize these 

minimal lumen losses. For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• A majority of reflector lamps have a nominal CCT rating of 2,700K and give off a warm, yellowish white color, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 3,500K, 4,100K (neutral white), 5,000K 

(daylight), and 6,500K (blueish white) are also available. Traditional incandescent light bulbs have a nominal CCT of about 2,700K. When replacing a light bulb, it is advised to chose a 

product with a similar CCT value in order to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100. However, CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. 

CRI values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination. High CRI products are preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. Higher 

CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamps which 

are sold only as a replacement for use in an existing fixture. Many factors influence the price of LED lamps including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and the 

annual operating hours for commercial reflector lamps (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

Legislation:

• EPAct92 established minimum performance standards for some reflector lamps and provided exemptions for certain specialty applications (e.g., ER/BR, vibration service, more than 5% 

neodymium oxide, impact resistant, infrared heat, colored). EPAct92 effectively phased-out R-shaped tungsten filament incandescent reflector lamps at certain wattages and bulb diameters, 

replacing them with more efficient and cost effective tungsten-halogen parabolic aluminized reflector (PAR) lamps. EISA2007 took away certain exemptions from EPACT 1992, requiring 

certain previously exempted lamps to meet EPAct92 minimum performance standards by January 1, 2008. In 2015, DOE issued a final rule that determined that amending the standards for 

incandescent reflector lamps could not be economically justified. 

• In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress prescribed in the Energy Policy and Conservation 

Act. This action also amended the definition of general service lamps to include previously exempted product classes, such as reflector lamps. These standards can not be achieved by 

traditional incandescent or halogen technologies currently on the market, and given current and projected trends in industry,they will likely not be met. It is currently assumed that industry 

will increase its investment in LED technology at the expense of incandescent, halogen, and CFL technologies. The rule will go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for 

retail and distribution in July 2023.
Final

31

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reflector Lamps in Recessed Can Fixtures

ENERGY STAR:

• For ENERGY STAR qualification, general service reflector lamps must have a minimum lamp efficacy of 61 lm/W for products with CRI ≥ 90 and 70 lm/W for lamps with CRI < 90. 

Additionally, the lamps must have a CRI ≥ 80, nominal CCT of 2,700, 3,000, 3,500, 4,000/4,100, 5,000, or 6,000 K, and rated lifetime ≥ 10,000 hours (ENERGY STAR).

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus would be on improving efficacy, lifetime, 

and price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Incandescent 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements.

Halogen 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature and the technology cannot meet legislative requirements 

as of 2022

CFL +0.5% 0% -0.5% In addition to higher efficiency reflector coatings, improvements in efficacy can be made by using 

more rare-earth phosphors in compact fluorescent lamps. Lifetime improvements can be made by 

improving the compact fluorescent lamp electrodes.
Final

32

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial LED Reflector Lighting (PAR38)

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 20232 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR3 Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 17.2 16.6 17.0 16.4 17.0 22.0 29.9 14.0 11.2 9.4 9.8 8.4 8.7

Lamp Lumens 1,045 1,210 1,200 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,344 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700 1,344 1,700

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 60.9 73.0 70.6 82.0 100.0 61.0 45.0 95.7 151.7 142.4 173.6 160.2 195.3

System Wattage 17.2 16.6 17.0 16.4 17.0 22.0 29.9 14.0 11.2 9.4 9.8 8.4 8.7

System Lumens1 972 1,125 1,116 1,250 1,581 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,581 1,250 1,581 1,250 1,581

System Efficacy (lm/W) 56.6 67.9 65.6 76.1 93.0 56.7 41.9 89.0 141.1 132.4 161.4 149.0 181.6

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 83 83 82 86 82 80 N/A 86 82 86 82 86 82

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,000 3,000 2,700 3,000 3,000 3,000 N/A 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 22 15 25 28 25 25 N/A 28 25 28 25 28 25

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 N/A N/A 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928

Lamp Price (2022$) $61.98 $28.10 $23.71 $23.09 $15.69 N/A N/A $19.40 $13.18 $17.36 $11.79 $15.37 $10.45

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) $23.72 $26.38 $22.07 $22.07 $22.07 N/A N/A $21.20 $21.20 $20.17 $20.17 $19.18 $19.18

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $59.31 $23.23 $19.76 $17.18 $9.23 N/A N/A $14.43 $7.75 $12.91 $6.94 $11.44 $6.14

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $88.18 $48.42 $41.02 $36.13 $23.88 N/A N/A $32.48 $21.75 $30.02 $20.22 $27.64 $18.74 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 N/A N/A $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 N/A N/A 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $162.93 $131.71 $111.78 $111.16 $103.76 N/A N/A $106.60 $100.38 $103.52 $97.96 $100.55 $95.63 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $14.75 $10.50 $5.32 $4.64 $3.74 N/A N/A $3.99 $3.25 $3.64 $2.98 $3.29 $2.71

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $167.64 $117.04 $100.16 $88.92 $65.63 N/A N/A $85.28 $63.49 $82.81 $61.96 $80.44 $60.48 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $15.17 $9.33 $4.77 $3.72 $2.37 N/A N/A $3.20 $2.05 $2.91 $1.88 $2.63 $1.71

1. Based on a fixture efficiency of 93% for an omnidirectional lamp installed in a recessed can fixture.

2. In April 2022, DOE codified into the Code of Federal Regulations the 45 lm/W backstop requirement for general service lamps that Congress presedin the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. The new minimum 

efficacy requirements go into effect for manufacture and import in January 2023 and for retail and distribution in July 2023. This Final Rule also amended the definition of GSLs to include previously exempted product 

classes, including reflector lamps. All LED lighting products exceed the new minimum efficacy standards.

3. Criteria outlined in ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs): Eligibility Criteria Version 2.1 (Published June, 2017, Revised June 2020)
Final

33

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

This section characterizes commercial linear fixtures that house two 4ft long linear lamps and their integrated luminaire equivalents. The technologies available for this system are linear 

fluorescent and LED. 

• Linear fluorescent options are T5, T8, and T12 lamps. T5 lamps are approximately 40% narrower than T8 lamps and almost 60% narrower than T12 lamps. This narrowness allows T5 lamps 

to be coated with higher quality, more efficient phosphor blends than larger diameter lamps, resulting in a more efficacious lamp. The compact size of T5 lamps also permits greater flexibility 

in lighting design and construction.

• LED options for linear fixtures include replacement lamps that can fit directly into an existing fixture and fully integratedluminaires that can be used to replace existing fixtures. LED 

replacement lamps are also known as TLEDs. Type A TLEDs can be installed with existing ballasts and Type B and C TLEDs require the ballast to be disconnected. Replacement lamps are 

only sold to go into existing fixtures. If a new fixture is to be installed, a fully integrated LED luminaire is a more cost effective and efficient option. Because LED luminaires are fully 

integrated, they do not have lamp and fixture efficiency losses associated with ballasts and fixture optics. For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year 

fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• Linear lamps often have a nominal CCT rating of 3,500K, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 4,000K, and 4,100K (neutral white) are also common. 5,000K (daylight) lamps are available as 

well. When replacing a light bulb, it is important to choose a product with a similar CCT value to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100, but CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. CRI 

values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination, with high CRI products being preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. 

Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these very specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of two lamps, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated withthe installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamp, 

which are sold only as a replacement for use in an existing fixture. There are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient and cost effective for new installations or fixture retrofits. 

Many factors influence the price of LED lamps, including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical lamp prices in 2022, reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics 

and features, were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and 

the annual operating hours of 4055 hours per year for commercial 4ft linear systems (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

Legislation:

• Beginning July 14, 2012 (or July 14, 2014, for T8 700-series phosphor lamps), DOE fluorescent lamp standards required a minimum efficacy of 89 lm/W. Although the amended performancebased standards do not explicitly prohibit T12 lamps, no T12 lamps met the standard at the time of its announcement. Since then,however, T12 lamps meeting the standard have entered the 

market.

• California's Title 24 mandates the use of electronic ballasts with high efficacy luminaires (including fluorescent) of 13 W or higher (CEC, 2005).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover commercial linear luminaires (ENERGY STAR, 2020). 
Final

34

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume that manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and 

price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

T8 F32 Commodity 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T8 F32 High Efficiency/High Output 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T5 F28 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

35

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-ft Linear LED Replacement Lamp in 2-Lamp System

1. N/A because a fixture and an LED replacement lamp would not be purchased separately for a new installation or retrofit when there are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient 

and cost effective. These lamps are sold only as replacements to go into existing fixtures.

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 20.8 17.0 16.0 13.7 11.0 8.9 7.2 7.7 7.2 7.7 7.2

Lamp Lumens 2,091 2,003 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800 1,920 1,800

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 100.5 117.8 112.5 140.1 163.6 216.1 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0

System Wattage 41.6 34.0 32.0 27.4 22.0 17.8 14.4 15.4 14.4 15.4 14.4

System Lumens 3,555 3,565 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456 3,686 3,456

System Efficacy (lm/W) 85.4 104.9 108.0 134.5 157.1 207.4 240.0 240.0 240.0 240.0 240.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 86 81 82 81 80 81 80 81 80 81 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,100 4,020 4,100 3,500 5,000 3,500 5,000 3,500 5,000 3,500 5,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 50 54 50 54 50 54 50 54 50 54 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,055 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541 3,541

Lamp Price (2022$) $278.36 $35.06 $14.63 $11.11 $4.28 $9.88 $3.81 $9.66 $3.72 $9.44 $3.64 

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) $133.10 $17.50 $8.13 $5.79 $2.38 $5.15 $2.11 $5.03 $2.07 $4.92 $2.02 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $587.35 $70.12 $29.26 $22.22 $8.56 $19.76 $7.61 $19.31 $7.44 $18.89 $7.28 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $47.63 $6.61 $3.93 $3.17 $2.46 $3.01 $2.39 $2.98 $2.38 $2.95 $2.37 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $165.20 $19.67 $8.47 $6.03 $2.48 $5.36 $2.20 $5.24 $2.15 $5.12 $2.11 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $13.40 $1.85 $1.14 $0.86 $0.71 $0.82 $0.69 $0.81 $0.69 $0.80 $0.69 
Final

36

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 4-ft Linear LED Luminaire to Replace 2-Lamp Systems

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 51.5 50.0 49.0 44.0 35.0 27.4 21.8 23.0 19.2 21.2 19.2

System Lumens 4,818 4,673 5,024 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800 5,302 4,800

System Efficacy (lm/W) 93.6 93.5 102.5 120.5 137.1 193.4 220.1 230.4 250.0 250.0 250.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 84 79 80 79 80 79 80 79 80 79 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 3,500 3,650 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 67 53 54 53 50 53 50 53 50 53 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,055 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) $723.96 $188.00 $144.85 $152.54 $207.80 $127.58 $173.80 $118.37 $161.25 $109.57 $149.27 

Ballast Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $150.25 $40.23 $57.66 $57.54 $86.58 $24.06 $36.21 $22.33 $33.59 $20.67 $31.10 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $762.57 $226.61 $322.70 $338.08 $448.60 $160.58 $206.80 $151.37 $194.25 $142.57 $182.27 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $46.16 $14.67 $11.30 $12.01 $16.52 $10.40 $14.19 $9.80 $13.33 $9.23 $12.51 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $158.27 $48.49 $64.23 $63.76 $93.46 $30.29 $43.08 $28.55 $40.47 $26.89 $37.97 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $9.58 $3.14 $2.25 $2.27 $3.44 $1.96 $2.96 $1.85 $2.78 $1.74 $2.61 

1. N/A because the lamp and fixture are both included in the luminaire.
Final

37

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

This section characterizes commercial linear fixtures that house two 8ft long linear lamps and their integrated luminaire equivalents. The technologies available for this system are linear 

fluorescent and LED. 

• Linear fluorescent options are T5, T8, and T12 lamps. T5 lamps are approximately 40% narrower than T8 lamps and almost 60% narrower than T12 lamps. This narrowness allows T5 lamps 

to be coated with higher quality, more efficient phosphor blends than larger diameter lamps, resulting in a more efficacious lamp. The compact size of T5 lamps also permits greater flexibility 

in lighting design and construction.

• LED options for linear fixtures include replacement lamps that can fit directly into an existing fixture and fully integratedluminaires that can be used to replace existing fixtures. LED 

replacement lamps are also known as TLEDs. Type A TLEDs can be installed with existing ballasts and Type B and C TLEDs require the ballast to be disconnected. Replacement lamps are 

only sold to go into existing fixtures. If a new fixture is to be installed, a fully integrated LED luminaire is a more cost effective and efficient option. Because LED luminaires are fully 

integrated, they do not have lamp and fixture efficiency losses associated with ballasts and fixture optics. For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year 

fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• Linear lamps often have a nominal CCT rating of 3,500K, but products with CCTs of 3,000K, 4,000K, and 4,100K (neutral white) are also common. 5,000K (daylight) lamps are available as 

well. When replacing a light bulb, it is important to choose a product with a similar CCT value to achieve the same look. 

• Incandescent and halogen lamps have perfect color rendering with a CRI value of 100, but CFL and LEDs products commonly fall between 70 and 90 CRI, with an average around 80. CRI 

values of 80 are considered suitable for general illumination, with high CRI products being preferable for retail and display applications where improved color quality is of real value. 

Higher CRI is not expected to be a focus for future LED products except for these very specific retail and display applications.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of two lamps, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated withthe installation, except for in the case of LED replacement lamps, 

which are sold only as a replacement for use in an existing fixture. There are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient and cost effective for new installations or fixture retrofits. 

Many factors influence the price of LED lamps, including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical lamp prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and 

features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp life and 

the annual operating hours of 4147 hours per year for commercial 8ft linear systems (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

Legislation:

• Beginning July 14, 2012 (or July 14, 2014, for T8 700-series phosphor lamps), DOE fluorescent lamp standards required a minimum efficacy of 89 lm/W. Although the amended performancebased standards do not explicitly prohibit T12 lamps, no T12 lamps met the standard at the time of its announcement. Since then,however, T12 lamps meeting the standard have entered the 

market.

• California's Title 24 mandates the use of electronic ballasts with high efficacy luminaires (including fluorescent) of 13 W or higher (CEC, 2005).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover commercial linear luminaires (ENERGY STAR, 2020). 
Final

38

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-foot Linear 2-Lamp Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume that manufacturers will focus on improving efficacy, lifetime, and 

price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050: 

Technology Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

T8 F59 Typical Efficiency 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T8 F59 High Efficiency 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

T8 F96 High Output 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

39

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-ft Linear LED Replacement Lamp for a 2-Lamp System

1. N/A because a fixture and an LED replacement lamp would not be purchased separately for a new installation or retrofit when there are integrated LED luminaires that are more efficient and cost 

effective. These lamps are sold only as replacements to go into existing fixtures.

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage N/A 35.7 34.0 39.0 40.0 25.3 25.9 21.9 22.4 19.8 22.0

Lamp Lumens N/A 3,975 4,200 4,960 5,500 4,960 5,500 4,960 5,500 4,960 5,500

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) N/A 111.2 123.5 127.2 137.5 196.1 212.0 226.7 245.1 250.0 250.0

System Wattage N/A 71.5 68.0 78.0 80.0 50.6 51.9 43.8 44.9 39.7 44.0

System Lumens N/A 7,473 8,064 9,523 10,560 9,523 10,560 9,523 10,560 9,523 10,560

System Efficacy (lm/W) N/A 104.5 118.6 122.1 132.0 188.2 203.5 217.7 235.3 240.0 240.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI N/A 80 82 81 82 81 82 81 82 81 82

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) N/A 5,000 4,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 5,000

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) N/A 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) N/A 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147 4,147

Lamp Price (2022$) N/A $89.59 $33.11 $37.22 $41.44 $32.35 $36.02 $31.71 $35.30 $31.11 $34.64 

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $19.00 $7.88 $7.50 $7.53 $6.52 $6.55 $6.39 $6.42 $6.27 $6.30 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

1 N/A $23.98 $8.21 $7.82 $7.85 $6.79 $6.82 $6.66 $6.69 $6.53 $6.56 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours)1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Total Installed Cost (2022$) N/A $200.80 $84.70 $92.92 $101.36 $83.18 $90.52 $81.90 $89.09 $80.70 $87.76 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) N/A $16.65 $7.02 $7.71 $8.41 $6.90 $7.51 $6.79 $7.39 $6.69 $7.28 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $50.51 $10.50 $9.76 $9.60 $8.73 $8.57 $8.60 $8.44 $8.47 $8.31 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $4.19 $0.87 $0.81 $0.80 $0.72 $0.71 $0.71 $0.70 $0.70 $0.69 
Final

40

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial 8-ft Linear LED Luminaire Replacement for a 2-Lamp System

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage N/A 73.0 90.0 78.0 72.0 49.7 45.9 42.4 41.6 37.9 41.6

System Lumens N/A 8,000 8,200 9,465 10,400 9,465 10,400 9,465 10,400 9,465 10,400

System Efficacy (lm/W) N/A 109.6 91.1 121.3 144.4 190.4 226.7 223.1 250.0 250.0 250.0

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI N/A 90 80 81 80 81 80 81 80 81 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) N/A 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) N/A 75 50 73 100 73 100 73 100 73 100

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) N/A 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431 3,431

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) N/A $759.16 $119.99 $142.48 $153.91 $109.90 $118.71 $96.00 $103.70 $82.68 $89.31 

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $80.00 $14.63 $15.05 $14.80 $11.61 $11.41 $10.14 $9.97 $8.73 $8.59 

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) N/A $708.20 $206.52 $229.01 $240.44 $196.42 $205.24 $182.53 $190.23 $169.20 $175.83 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) N/A $39.16 $22.40 $17.46 $13.53 $14.40 $11.11 $13.09 $10.08 $11.84 $9.10 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $88.53 $25.18 $24.20 $23.12 $20.75 $19.73 $19.28 $18.29 $17.88 $16.91 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) N/A $4.89 $2.73 $1.84 $1.30 $1.52 $1.07 $1.38 $0.97 $1.25 $0.87 
Final

41

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Low-Bay Lighting Systems

The commercial low bay lighting characterized in this report is a one-lamp and one-ballast system in a low/high bay fixture that emits between 6,000 and 10,000 system lumens. Low 

bay lighting is defined as “interior lighting where the roof trusses or ceiling height is less than 25ft. above the floor”(IESNA, 2000). For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture 

renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• Low bay conventional lighting technologies, such as metal halide and sodium vapor lamps, provide higher efficacy ranging from 80 lm/W to 100 lm/W. Older, mercury vapor 

lamps have much lower efficacy at approximately 40 lm/W.

• CCT and CRI values range broadly based on technology type for low bay products.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED luminaires, 

which are sold as one integrated system. Many factors influence the price of LED luminaires, including CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical 

luminaire prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp 

life and the annual operating hours for commercial low-bay systems (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover low/high bay luminaires (ENERGY STAR, 2012). 
Final

42

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Low-Bay Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus would be on improving efficacy, lifetime, 

and price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Mercury Vapor 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

Metal Halide 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

Sodium Vapor 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

43

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial LED Low-Bay Luminaire

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 68.1 84.0 40.0 73.0 76.0 47.1 49.0 40.5 48.0 40.0 48.0

System Lumens 4,877 10,000 5,000 10,000 12,000 10,000 12,000 10,000 12,000 10,000 12,000

System Efficacy (lm/W) 71.6 119.0 125.0 137.0 157.9 212.5 244.9 246.7 250.0 250.0 250.0

Ballast Efficiency N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 85 78 84 81 80 81 84 81 84 81 81

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 4,000 4,806 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 4,000

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 50 74 75 65 60 65 60 65 60 65 60

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) $903.82 $281.00 $63.99 $145.46 $285.89 $123.82 $243.37 $111.24 $218.63 $99.09 $194.75 

Ballast Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm)

1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $185.31 $28.10 $12.80 $14.55 $23.82 $12.38 $20.28 $11.12 $18.22 $9.91 $16.23

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $865.44 $396.83 $162.99 $244.46 $384.89 $222.82 $342.37 $210.24 $317.63 $198.09 $293.75 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $69.95 $37.02 $12.23 $24.24 $45.18 $21.55 $39.45 $19.99 $36.12 $18.48 $32.90 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $177.44 $39.68 $32.60 $24.45 $32.07 $22.28 $28.53 $21.02 $26.47 $19.81 $24.48 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $14.34 $3.70 $2.45 $2.42 $3.77 $2.16 $3.29 $2.00 $3.01 $1.85 $2.74 

1. N/A because the lamp and fixture are both included in the luminaire.
Final

44

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial High-Bay Lighting Systems

The commercial high-bay lighting characterized in this report is a one-lamp and one-ballast system in a low/high bay fixture that emits greater than 10,000 system lumens. High-bay 

lighting is defined as “interior lighting where the roof trusses or ceiling height is greater than 25ft. above the floor” (IESNA, 2000). For all lamp technologies, an annual fixture 

renovation rate of 10% (i.e., 10-year fixture service life) is used to reflect the proportion of equipment that retires each year.

Performance: 

• High bay conventional lighting technologies, such as metal halide and sodium vapor lamps, provide higher efficacy ranging from 80 lm/W to 100 lm/W. Older, mercury vapor 

lamps have much lower efficacy at approximately 40 lm/W.

• CCT and CRI values range broadly based on technology type for high bay products.

Cost: 

• The total installed cost is the price of a lamp, ballast (if applicable), and fixture plus the cost for labor associated with the installation, except for in the case of LED luminaires, 

which are sold as one integrated system. Many factors influence the price of LED luminaires including, CRI, lifetime, dimming capabilities, and efficacy. Therefore, typical 

luminaire prices in 2022 reflecting a mix of lamp characteristics and features were used as the basis for projections for both typical and high efficacy products in the future. 

• Annual maintenance costs are the cost of labor for replacing the lamps and the cost of the replacement lamp itself. The frequency at which lamps are replaced is a function of lamp 

life and the annual operating hours for commercial high bay systems (DOE SSL Program, 2012a). 

• Commercial lighting disposal costs are estimated to be $0.12 per linear foot of fluorescent lamps, $1.50 per lamp for HID lamps, and $0.50 for CFLs (EPA, 2022).

ENERGY STAR:

• ENERGY STAR does not cover low/high bay luminaires (ENERGY STAR, 2012). 
Final

45

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial High-Bay Lighting Systems

Future Performance Improvements:

• Projections were provided for both typical and high performing products for 2030, 2040, and 2050. We assume manufacturers will focus would be on improving efficacy, lifetime 

and price for products at constant CRI and CCT values. 

• Due to continued R&D investment, competition from LED lighting products, and general market demand for cost-effective lighting, the performance and cost characteristics of 

conventional lighting technologies are expected to improve over the analysis period. However, the ability of these conventional technologies to react rapidly (in terms of 

performance improvement) to the emergence of a new light source such as LED lighting is relatively small because these are mature technologies (particularly incandescent and 

fluorescent) and established market competitors (Navigant, 2019).

• For LED technology, efficacy, lifetime, and price improvements were based on the model described in the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019). For traditional technologies, the following future improvements were assumed to occur year over year through 2050. 

Efficacy Lifetime Price Potential for Improvements

Mercury Vapor 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

Metal Halide 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.

Sodium Vapor 0% 0% -0.5% Limited because the technology is mature.
Final

46

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial LED High-Bay Luminaire

Higher efficacy compared with Reference Case

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage1

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Lumens1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System Wattage 212 167 150 138 130 89 84 76 76 74 76

System Lumens 18,915 18,797 18,500 18,500 18,900 18,500 18,900 18,500 18,900 18,500 18,900

System Efficacy (lm/W) 89 113 123 134 145 208 225 242 250 250 250

Ballast Efficiency N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CRI 74 78 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 70 67 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042 4,042

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) $2,842.05 $448.43 $177.54 $195.81 $234.20 $162.12 $193.90 $148.87 $178.06 $136.20 $162.90

Ballast Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm)

1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) $150.25 $23.86 $9.60 $10.58 $12.39 $8.76 $10.26 $8.05 $9.42 $7.36 $8.62

Labor Cost (2022$/h) $77.22 $77.22 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 $66.00 

Labor System Installation (hours) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $2,957.88 $564.26 $276.54 $294.81 $333.20 $261.12 $292.90 $247.87 $277.06 $235.20 $261.90 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $170.78 $34.07 $11.18 $11.91 $13.47 $10.55 $11.84 $10.02 $11.20 $9.51 $10.58 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm) $156.38 $30.02 $14.95 $15.94 $17.63 $14.11 $15.50 $13.40 $14.66 $12.71 $13.86 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm) $9.03 $1.81 $0.60 $0.64 $0.71 $0.57 $0.63 $0.54 $0.59 $0.51 $0.56 

1. N/A because the lamp and fixture are both included in the luminaire.
Final

Refrigeration

47
Final

48

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Compressor Rack Systems

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Capacity (kBtu/h)1 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,190 930 N/A 1,190 930 1,190 930 1,190 930

Median Store Size (ft2

) 46,500 31,997 35,197 35,197 35,197 N/A 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197

Power Input (kW) 162 155 162 160 125 N/A 160 125 160 125 160 125

Annual Energy Use (MMWh/y)2 1,497 1,497 1,305 1,232 1,160 N/A 1,109 1,044 998 939 898 845

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.00 1.15 1.21 1.29 N/A 1.35 1.43 1.50 1.59 1.67 1.77

Average Life (years) 15 15 15 15 15 N/A 15 15 15 15 15 15

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $630,000 $630,000 $488,000 $625,000 $630,000 N/A $625,000 $630,000 $625,000 $630,000 $625,000 $630,000 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $525,000 $525,000 $406,667 $525,210 $677,419 N/A $525,210 $677,419 $525,210 $677,419 $525,210 $677,419 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)4 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 N/A $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 $3,400 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $2,833 $2,833 $2,833 $2,857 $3,656 N/A $2,857 $3,656 $2,857 $3,656 $2,857 $3,656

1. The total capacity represents the nominal compressor capacity required for the entire refrigeration system of a typical supermarket. This refrigeration system usually includes two low 

temperature racks and two medium temperature racks. For 2018, a 1,200 MBtu/h total cooling capacity is based on a 200-ton estimate for total capacity–80 tons for the medium temperature 

racks and 20 tons for the low temperature racks.

2. Capacity and annual energy consumption for 2022 and beyond are based on market research and Guidehouse estimates.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Maintenance cost includes oil changes, bearing lubrication, filter replacement, and system functionality checks-approximately half a day per rack of labor for technician is assumed.

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

49

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Compressor Rack Systems

• Commercial compressor rack systems that serve commercial supermarket display cases and walk-ins consist of a 

number of parallel-connected compressors located in a separate machine room. By modulating compressor capacity, 

these integrated systems provide higher efficiency and mechanical longevity.

• Rack integrators generally supply a packaged compressor rack for which much of the necessary piping, insulation, 

components, and controls are pre-assembled. 

• A typical supermarket will have 10 to 20 compressors mounted in racks in the 3-horsepower (hp) to 15-hp size range. 

Usually, each rack has three to five compressors serve a series of loads with nearly identical evaporator temperature.

• The duty cycle for compressors is usually in the range of 60% to 70%.

• Energy use and capacity for the Reference Case are projected to remain static over the coming decades because 

commercial compressor racks systems are a mature technology. The Reference Case assumes low R&D efforts because 

it is an established technology.

• For this Advanced Case, a 10% reduction in energy consumption is assumed to occur over the Reference Case for 

2022 and beyond due to vacuum insulated panel (VIP) adoption by display cases and a relaxation in charge size 

limits for more efficient, low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants. Also, increased adoption of 

toxic/flammable refrigerants such as ammonia and propane due to improved safety technology such as leak 

detection. 
Final

50

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Condensers

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Capacity (kBtu/h)1 1,680 1,520 1,440 1,440 1,440 N/A 1,440 1,368 1,300 1,300 1,235 1,235

Median Store Size (ft2

) 46,500 31,997 35,197 35,197 35,197 N/A 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197

Power Input (kW) 25 25 18 18 18 N/A 18 18 18 18 18 18

Annual Energy Use (MMWh/y) 120 120 115 106 86 N/A 95 77 86 70 77 63

Indexed Annual Efficiency2 1.00 1.00 1.04 1.13 1.40 N/A 1.26 1.55 1.40 1.72 1.55 1.91

Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 10 10 10 10 10 10

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $54,000 $60,000 $54,000 $60,000 $80,000 N/A $60,000 $80,000 $60,000 $80,000 $60,000 $80,000 

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $32,143 $39,474 $37,500 $41,667 $55,556 N/A $41,667 $58,480 $46,168 $61,538 $48,598 $64,777 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)3 $954 $954 $954 $954 $954 N/A $954 $954 $954 $954 $954 $954 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $0.57 $0.63 $0.66 $0.66 $0.66 N/A $0.66 $0.70 $0.73 $0.73 $0.77 $0.77

1. Total capacity is the total heat rejected (THR) by condensers comprised of two low temperature condensers (THRL = 240 MBtu/h each, suction temperature = -25°F, condensing 

temperature-110°F) and two medium temperature condensers (THRM = 520 MBtu/h each, suction temperature = 15°F, condensing temperature = 115°F); ambient temperature = 95°F. 

(NCI, 2009). For 2022 and beyond, capacity was estimated by Guidehouse.

2. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

3. Maintenance cost includes coil cleaning, leak checking, belt replacement as necessary, and system functionality checks.

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

51

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Condensers

• Condensers are designed with multiple methods of cooling: air-cooled, water-cooled, and evaporative. These units 

can be single-circuit or a multiple circuit.

• Commercial condensers are remotely located, typically installed on the roof of a supermarket. 

• For use with parallel compressors in supermarkets, air-cooled units are the most commonly used condensers. This 

analysis is based on multiple air-cooled condensers connected to a supermarket refrigeration system comprised of 

two low temperature condensers and two medium temperature condensers. 

• Each compressor rack has a dedicated condenser or a separate circuit of a single common condenser. Condenser 

temperatures of multiple racks are often different. 

• The duty cycle for condensers is usually in the range 50%-70%.

• For this Advanced Case, a 10% reduction in energy consumption and a 5% reduction in required capacity is 

assumed to occur over the Reference Case for 2020 and beyond due to VIP adoption by display cases and a 

relaxation in charge size limits for more efficient, low GWP. Also, increased adoption of toxic/flammable 

refrigerants such as ammonia and propane due to improved safety technology such as leak detection. 
Final

52

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Supermarket Display Cases

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 17,623 11,850 11,850 11,850 11,850 N/A 11,850 11,850 11,850 11,850 11,850 11,850

Median Store Size (ft2

) 46,500 31,997 35,197 35,197 35,197 N/A 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197 35,197

Case Length (ft) 12 12 12 12 12 N/A 12 12 12 12 12 12

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)1,2 13,497 10,506 10,506 9,771 9,087 N/A 9,282 8,632 8,818 8,201 8,377 7,791

Annual Energy Use / Case 

Length (kWh/ft) 1,125 876 876 814 757 N/A 774 719 735 683 698 649

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.28 1.28 1.38 1.49 N/A 1.45 1.56 1.53 1.65 1.61 1.73

Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $8,510 $10,650 $7,265 $9,500 $10,680 N/A $9,500 $10,680 $9,500 $10,680 $9,500 $10,680 

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $10,811 $12,650 $9,265 $11,500 $12,680 N/A $11,500 $12,680 $11,500 $12,680 $11,500 $12,680 

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 613 1,068 782 970 1,070 N/A 970 1,070 970 1,070 970 1,070

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)4 $940 $940 $940 $940 $940 N/A $940 $940 $940 $940 $940 $940 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $53.34 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 N/A $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32 $79.32

1. For 2022 and beyond, energy consumption and cost values were estimated using shipment-weighted averages reported in DOE’s 2014 CRE Final Rule Technical Support Document (TSD) 

for equipment commonly used as display cases. DOE’s updated conservation standard went into effect in 2017, so units sold in 2018 are assumed to comply with this standard. 

2. For consistency with DOE rulemaking practices, Supermarket Display Case Energy Use reported above includes energy use of the compressor racks and condensers. To avoid double 

counting, do not add Energy Use from the Compressor Rack or Condenser Systems tabs if calculating total energy consumption.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Maintenance cost includes preventative maintenance costs such as cleaning evaporator coils, drain pans, fans, and intake screensas well as lamp replacements and other lighting 

maintenance activities. After 2012, these values are based on a reported maintenance and repair cost of $220 per unit for preventative maintenance plus approximately $60 per linear foot 

for additional repair and maintenance.

Lower annual energy use, increased installed cost compared with Reference Case 
Final

53

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Supermarket Display Cases

Equipment Description Standards Equation (2012) Standards Equation (2017)

Vertical Open Cooler (VOP.RC.M) 0.82xTDA+4.07 0.64xTDA+4.07

Semi-Vertical Open Cooler (SVO.RC.M) 0.83xTDA+3.18 0.66xTDA+3.18

Horizontal Open Cooler (HZO.RC.M) 0.35xTDA+2.88 0.35xTDA+2.88

Transparent-Doored Cooler (VCT.RC.M) 0.22xTDA+1.95 0.15xTDA+1.95

Deli Display Cooler (SOC.RC.M) 0.51xTDA+0.11 0.44xTDA+0.11

Transparent-Doored Freezer (VCT.RC.L) 0.56xTDA+2.61 0.49xTDA+2.61

Horizontal Open Freezer (HZO.RC.L) 0.57xTDA+6.88 0.55xTDA+6.88

• DOE set federal energy efficiency standards for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment (CRE) in 2009. These standards 

set maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per day, for display cases manufactured sold in the 

United States on or after January 1, 2012. 

• DOE updated its Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment in 2014 for equipment 

sold on or after March 27, 2017. 

• The table below lists equipment used as supermarket display cases and their corresponding Energy Conservation 

Standard levels. The maximum allowable daily energy consumption for each equipment class is a linear function of 

Total Display Area (TDA).
Final

54

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Supermarket Display Cases

• According to CBECS 2018 microdata, the average building size for food sale building type is 31,997.

• Unit energy consumption for 2022 and beyond is estimated using a shipment-weighted average by efficiency level and equipment 

class, using data in DOE’s 2014 CRE Final Rule TSD with updated analysis from Guidehouse in 2016. The equipment classes analyzed

are listed in the table on the previous slide.

• Supermarket refrigeration systems consist of refrigerated display cases, condensing units, and centralized compressor racks.

• A typical supermarket display case contains lighting, evaporators, evaporator fans, piping, insulation, valves, and controls.

• The efficiency of supermarket display cases can be increased through the use of improved evaporator coils, larger evaporators, higher 

efficiency evaporator fan blades, high efficiency doors, LED lighting, and improved insulation.

• For 2020 and beyond, accelerated adoption of energy savings technologies is assumed to take place more than in the Reference 

Case, including accelerated shipments migration to doored over open units, where applicable, as well as vacuum insulated panels.

• The incremental cost of VIPs is assumed to decrease from its present value due to increased R&D funding.

• Projected installed costs for this Advanced Case are higher than the Reference Case, even assuming increased R&D funding. 

Advanced energy-saving technologies are assumed to be made financially viable for operators by increased market incentives such 

as utility efficiency rebate programs and/or carbon pricing.

• This Advanced Case assumes a transition from Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) to more efficient propane and ammonia refrigerants by 

2040.

• Advanced Case assumes a 5% reduction in energy use per decade based on technology and efficiency improvements.
Final

55

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Refrigerators

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 2,929 2,400 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349 2,349

Size (ft3) 49 49 46 46 46 47 46 46 46 46 46 46

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y) 2,340 2,222 1,935 1,351 810 810 1,283 770 1,283 770 1,283 770

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/y/ft3)

1 48 45 42 29 18 17 28 17 28 17 28 17

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.05 1.21 1.73 2.89 2.89 1.82 3.04 1.82 3.04 1.82 3.04

Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $2,624 $2,403 $2,728 $2,780 $3,021 $3,021 $3,058 $3,323 $3,323 $3,364 $3,655 $3,655 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $3,454 $3,282 $3,591 $3,643 $3,884 $3,884 $3,932 $4,197 $4,197 $4,238 $4,529 $4,529

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $1,179 $1,368 $1,529 $1,551 $1,654 $1,654 $1,885 $2,568 $1,885 $2,568 $1,885 $2,568

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)5 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 $185 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $63 $77 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79 $79

1. EPACT 2005 energy standards went into effect in 2010. 2022 low efficiency cost and energy consumption values are based on minimum compliance with this standard. Unless otherwise 

noted, all other cases are based on shipment-weighted averages solid- and transparent-doored units reported in the 2014 CRE TSD.DOE’s updated Energy Conservation standards went into 

effect in 2017; therefore, compliance with this standard is assumed for 2022 and beyond. 

2. The ENERGY STAR category is based on a shipment weighted average of solid- and transparent-doored units that are minimally compliant with ENERGY STAR v3, effective October 1, 2014. 

Units compliant with ENERGY STAR are found to be the most efficient reach-in refrigeration equipment on the market in 2022.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Installation cost for 2012 is based on NCI 2009 report that assumes a cost of $863. Installation cost for 2022 and beyond is based DOE’s 2014 CRE Final Rule and additional analysis by 

Guidehouse, which assumes an installation cost of $878 for self-contained equipment.

5. Maintenance costs after 2012 are based on DOE's CRE 2014 Final Rule TSD, which reports $35 annual preventative maintenance, per unit, per year, plus approximately $40 per linear foot, per 

year of additional repair and maintenance costs for the units characterized.

Lower annual energy use, increased installed cost compared with Reference Case 
Final

• The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT 2005) set maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per 

day, for commercial reach-in refrigerators that went into effect on January 1, 2010. The daily energy consumption is 

based on the volume of the unit (V) in ft3.

• In 2014, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for reach-in refrigerators, effective March 27, 2017. Both 

standards are reported in the table below.

• In 2013, EPA updated its ENERGY STAR specifications for reach-in refrigerators, effective March 27, 2017. These 

standards are also based on the refrigerated volume of the unit.

56

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Refrigerators

Reach-In Refrigerator 

Size

0 < V < 15 15 ≤ V < 30 30 ≤ V < 50 50 ≤ V

Solid Door (VCS.SC.M) 0.022xV+0.97 0.066xV+0.31 0.04xV+1.09 0.024xV+1.89

Glass Door (VCT.SC.M) 0.095xV+0.445 0.05xV+1.12 0.076xV+0.034 0.105xV-1.111

Equipment Class EPCA Standard Level (2010) DOE Standard Level (2017)

Solid Door (VCS.SC.M) 0.10xV+2.04 0.05xV + 1.36

Glass Door (VCT.SC.M) 0.12xV+3.34 0.1xV+0.86
Final

• Unit energy consumption for 2012 and beyond was estimated based on shipment-weighted averages by efficiency level and 

equipment class for 49 ft3 VCS.SC.M and VCT.SC.M units reported in DOE’s 2014 CRE Final Rule TSD with updated analysis 

from Guidehouse in 2016. These units were estimated to comprise approximately 85% and 15% of total reach-in refrigerator 

shipments, respectively.

• The efficiency of commercial reach-in refrigerators can be increased through the use of efficient compressors, efficient evaporator 

fans, efficient condenser fans, electric defrost, and more efficient lighting.

• After 2022, the high efficiency cases are based on solid-doored units rather than shipment-weighted averages due to the 

assumption that stakeholders will increasingly value energy conservation.

• Unit energy consumption is expected to decrease as a result of DOE’s updated energy conservation standards, as well as a 

transition to more efficient propane refrigerant due to compliance with EPA Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP).

• For this Advanced Case, the typical unit in 2020 is assumed to comply with DOE’s updated energy conservation standards for 

commercial refrigeration.

• A shipments migration from transparent- to solid-doored units is assumed for the Advanced Case.

• By 2040, the adoption of vacuum insulated panels is assumed to occur, with the aid of decreased incremental costs due to 

increased R&D funding.

• Projected installed costs for this Advanced Case are higher than the Reference Case, even assuming increased R&D funding. 

Advanced energy-saving technologies are assumed to be made financially viable for operators by increased market incentives 

such as utility efficiency rebate programs and/or carbon pricing.

• This analysis finds that with increased R&D and market incentives for energy-efficient technologies, a limit of possible 

efficiency improvements for self-contained, vapor compression refrigeration systems will be reached by 2040. 

57

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Refrigerators
Final

58

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Freezers

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 4,341 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340 4,340

Size (ft3) 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)1 6,023 5,585 5,585 4,847 4,110 4,110 4,362 3,699 3,926 3,329 3,533 2,996

Annual Energy Use / Volume (kWh/y/ft3) 123 114 114 99 84 84 89 75 80 68 72 61

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.08 1.08 1.24 1.47 1.47 1.38 1.63 1.53 1.81 1.70 2.01

Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $2,886 $2,886 $2,886 $3,175 $3,493 $3,493 $3,493 $3,842 $3,842 $4,226 $4,226 $4,649 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $3,749 $3,749 $3,749 $4,125 $4,443 $4,443 $4,443 $4,792 $4,792 $5,176 $5,176 $5,599

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $864 $864 $864 $950 $1,024 $1,024 $1,024 $1,104 $1,104 $1,193 $1,193 $1,290

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)5 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 $181 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $41.70 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71 $41.71

1. A 49 ft3 unit was characterized, because it was the representative size selected for DOE’s rulemaking analysis. 

2. The ENERGY STAR category was based on a solid-doored unit that is minimally compliant with ENERGY STAR v3, effective October 1, 2014.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Installation cost for 2012 and 2018 is based on DOE’s on-going CRE rulemaking, which assumes a cost of $863 for self-contained equipment and $950 for 2022 and beyond based on analysis 

from Guidehouse.

5. Maintenance costs are calculated based on a $35 per unit annual preventative maintenance cost, plus an additional $45 per linearfoot repair and maintenance cost estimated based on values 

reported in the CRE TSD.

Lower annual energy use, increased installed cost compared with Reference Case 
Final

• EPACT 2005 set maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per day, for commercial reach-in 

freezers that went into effect on January 1, 2010. The daily energy consumption is based on the volume of the unit (V) 

in ft3. 

• In March of 2017, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for commercial refrigeration equipment, including 

reach-in freezers. Both the EPCA and DOE standards are reported in the table below.

• In 2013, EPA updated its ENERGY STAR specifications for reach-in freezers, effective March 27, 2017. These standards 

are also based on the refrigerated volume of the unit.

59

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Freezers

Reach-In Freezer Size 0 < V < 15 15 ≤ V < 30 30 ≤ V < 50 50 ≤ V

Solid Door (VCS.SC.L) 0.21xV+0.9 0.12xV+2.248 0.285xV-2.703 0.142xV+4.445

Glass Door (VCT.SC.L) 0.232xV+2.36 0.232xV+2.36 0.232xV+2.36 0.232xV+2.36

Equipment Class EPCA (2010) DOE Standard Level (2017)

Solid Door (VCS.SC.L) 0.4xV+1.38 0.22xV+1.38

Transparent Door (VCT.SC.L) 0.75xV+4.10 0.29xV+2.95
Final

• The commercial reach-in freezer characterized in this report, which is the typical unit according to DOE’s 2014 CRE 

rulemaking, is a 49 cubic ft. solid two-door unit with a nominal compressor size of 4,341 Btu/h. 

• The efficiency of commercial reach-in freezers can be increased through the use of efficient compressors, efficient 

evaporator fans, efficient condenser fans, electric defrost, and more efficient lighting.

• Unit energy consumption for reach-in freezers is expected to decrease as a result of DOE’s updated energy 

conservation standards, as well as a transition to more efficient propane refrigerant due to EPA SNAP compliance. 

• The typical unit in 2020 is assumed to comply with DOE’s updated energy conservation standards for commercial 

refrigeration.

• By 2040, the adoption of vacuum insulated panels is assumed to occur, with the aid of decreased incremental costs 

due to increased R&D funding.

• Projected installed costs for this Advanced Case are higher than the Reference Case, even assuming increased R&D 

funding. Advanced energy-saving technologies are assumed to be made financially viable for operators by increased 

market incentives such as utility efficiency rebate programs.

• This analysis finds that with increased R&D and market incentives for energy-efficient technologies, a limit of 

possible efficiency improvements for self-contained, vapor compression refrigeration systems will be reached by 

2040. 

60

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Reach-In Freezers
Final

61

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/hr)

1 37,820 39,422 41,024 41,024 41,024 N/A 41,024 41,024 41,024 41,024 41,024 41,024

Size (ft2

) 305 240 240 240 240 N/A 240 240 240 240 240 240

Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) 2 30,689 20,040 17,600 16,200 14,800 N/A 14,580 13,320 13,122 11,988 11,810 10,789

Annual Energy Use / Area (kWh/ft2

/yr) 101 84 73 68 62 N/A 61 56 55 50 49 45

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.53 1.74 1.89 2.07 N/A 2.10 2.30 2.34 2.56 2.60 2.84

Insulated Box Average Life (yrs) 12 12 12 12 12 N/A 12 12 12 12 12 12

Compressor Average Life (yrs) 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $23,598 $19,847 $16,050 $19,847 $23,644 N/A $16,050 $23,644 $16,050 $23,644 $16,050 $23,644 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $27,012 $23,897 $20,100 $23,897 $27,694 N/A $20,100 $27,694 $20,100 $27,694 $20,100 $27,694 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/hr) $714 $606 $490 $583 $675 N/A $490 $675 $490 $675 $490 $675 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)5 $716 $740 $740 $740 $740 N/A $740 $740 $740 $740 $740 $740

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/hr) $18.93 $18.77 $18.04 $18.04 $18.04 N/A $18.04 $18.04 $18.04 $18.04 $18.04 $18.04

1. Assumes medium temperature units are refrigerators.

2. Average unit energy consumption was adapted from the DOE CRE 2016 report by assuming electronically commutated motor (ECM) evaporator fan motors are required for Energy Policy & 

Conservation Act (EPCA) compliance, as well as ECM condenser fan motors.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Installation cost for 2012 and beyond is based on DOE’s Walk-In Technical Support Document (TSD).

5. Maintenance cost includes checking and maintaining refrigerant charge levels, checking settings, and cleaning heat exchanger coils.

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

62

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

• For 2012 and beyond, the unit characterized was a walk-in storage cooler, based on DOE’s WICF TSD.

• A typical walk-in refrigerator includes:

- insulated floor and wall panels

- merchandising doors, shelving, and lighting (not included in cost estimate)

- semi-hermetic reciprocating compressor

- refrigerant (R404A)

- condenser

- evaporator

• Energy consumption is assumed to scale with the AWEF (Annual Walk-in Energy Factor), defined as the ratio of total 

heat removed from the refrigerated volume per year to the total electrical energy input of refrigeration systems over 

the same time period. 

• The installation cost consists of freight and delivery costs in addition to on-site assembly.

• This Advanced Case assumes a projected 10% decrease in energy consumption over the Reference Case due to 

adoption of more efficient refrigerants. 
Final

63

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 included prescriptive standards for walk-in refrigerators 

(coolers) that went into effect in 2009. These prescriptive standards, which are included in the analysis for all units for 

2012 and beyond, state that all walk-in refrigerators manufactured after January 1, 2009, must:

• For 2012 and beyond

• have automatic door closers 

• have strip doors, spring hinged doors, or other method of minimizing infiltration when doors are open

• contain wall, ceiling, and door insulation of at least R–25, except for glazed portions of doors and structural members

• use electronically commutated motors or three-phase motors (for evaporator fan motors of under 1 horsepower and 

less than 460 volts)

• use electronically commutated motors, permanent split capacitor-type motors, or three-phase motors (for condenser 

fan motors of under 1 horsepower)

• use light sources with an efficacy of 40 lumens per watt or more, including ballast losses (if any), except that light 

sources with an efficacy of 40 lumens per watt or less, including ballast losses (if any), may be used in conjunction 

with a timer or device that turns off the lights within 15 minutes of when the walk-in refrigerator is not occupied by 

people.
Final

In 2014, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for walk-in coolers and freezers. Minimum AWEF (Annual 

Walk-In Energy Factor) was set for refrigeration systems, as well as upper limits on energy consumption attributable to 

passage, freight, and display doors. DOE elected not to set new standards for the R-value of Walk-In Panels.

64

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR WALK-IN COOLERS AND WALK-IN FREEZERS

Class descriptor Class Standard lev el

Refrigeration Systems Minimum AWEF (Btu/W-h)

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Indoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ......... DC.M.I, <9,000 ... 5.61

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Indoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ......... DC.M.I, ≥ 9,000 ... 5.61

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Outdoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ...... DC.M.O, <9,000 ...7.60

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Outdoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ...... DC.M.O,≥9,000 ...7.60

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Indoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............... DC.L.I, <9,000 ..... 5.93 ⋅ 10¥5 ⋅Q + 2.33

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Indoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............... DC.L.I, ≥9,000 .... 3.10

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Outdoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............. DC.L.O, <9,000 .. 2.30 ⋅ 10¥4 ⋅Q + 2.73

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Outdoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............. DC.L.O, ≥9,000 .. 4.79

Multiplex Condensing, Medium Temperature ........................................................................... MC.M .................. 10.89

Multiplex Condensing, Low Temperature ................................................................................. MC.L ................... 6.57

Panels Minimum R-v alue (h-ft2-°F/Btu)

Structural Panel, Medium Temperature .................................................................................... SP.M .................. 25

Structural Panel, Low Temperature .......................................................................................... SP.L ................... 32

Floor Panel, Low Temperature ................................................................................................. FP.L .................... 28

Non-Display Doors Maximum energy consumption

(kWh/day) **

Passage Door, Medium Temperature ...................................................................................... PD.M .................. 0.05 ⋅And + 1.7

Passage Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................. PD.L ................... 0.14 ⋅And + 4.8

Freight Door, Medium Temperature ......................................................................................... FD.M .................. 0.04 ⋅And + 1.9

Freight Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................... FD.L ................... 0.12 ⋅And + 5.6

Display Doors Maximum Energy Consumption (kWh/day) †

Display Door, Medium Temperature ......................................................................................... DD.M .................. 0.04 ⋅Add + 0.41

Display Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................... DD.L ................... 0.15 ⋅Add + 0.29
Final

65

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 22,114 23,500 23,500 23,500 23,500 N/A 23,500 23,500 23,500 23,500 23,500 23,500

Size (ft2

) 1 172 161 161 161 161 N/A 161 161 161 161 161 161

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)2 22,862 17,600 21,400 21,400 21,400 N/A 19,260 19,260 17,334 17,334 15,601 15,601

Annual Energy Use / Area (kWh/ft2

/y) 133 109 133 133 133 N/A 120 120 108 108 97 97

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.30 1.07 1.07 1.07 N/A 1.19 1.19 1.32 1.32 1.47 1.47

Insulated Box Average Life (years) 12 12 12 12 12 N/A 12 12 12 12 12 12

Compressor Average Life (years) 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $22,008 $21,950 $21,950 $22,850 $23,750 N/A $22,850 $23,750 $22,850 $23,750 $22,850 $23,750 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $24,058 $23,950 $23,950 $24,850 $25,750 N/A $24,850 $25,750 $24,850 $25,750 $24,850 $25,750 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $1,088 $1,019 $1,019 $1,057 $1,096 N/A $1,057 $1,096 $1,057 $1,096 $1,057 $1,096 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)5 $741 $741 $741 $740 $741 N/A $740 $741 $740 $741 $740 $741

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $33.51 $31.53 $31.53 $31.49 $31.53 N/A $31.49 $31.53 $31.49 $31.53 $31.49 $31.53

1. Based on DOE's 2014 WICF Final Rule TSD and additional analysis by Guidehouse, the average floor area for a walk-in storage freezer as 161 ft2.

2. EISA 2007 includes prescriptive standards for walk-in freezers that went into effect in 2009. All units for 2012 and beyond include these prescriptive standards. Units for 2022 and beyond are 

characterized using data from DOE’s 2014 WICF rulemaking. All units for 2022 and beyond are assumed to comply with this standard.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Installation cost for 2012 and beyond is based on DOE’s WICF TSD and additional analysis by Guidehouse. 

5. Maintenance cost includes checking and maintaining refrigerant charge levels, checking settings, and cleaning heat exchanger coils.

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

66

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

• The commercial walk-in freezer characterized in this report is a walk-in storage freezer with an area of 161 ft2.

• A typical walk-in freezer includes:

- insulated floor, door, and wall panels

- semi-hermetic reciprocating compressor

- refrigerant (R404A)

- condenser

- evaporator

• Energy consumption is assumed to scale with the AWEF (Annual Walk-in Energy Factor), defined as the ratio of total 

heat removed from the refrigerated volume per year to the total electrical energy input of refrigeration systems over the 

same time period. 

• The installation cost consists of freight and delivery costs in addition to on-site assembly.

• This Advanced Case assumes a projected 10% decrease in energy consumption over the Reference Case due to 

adoption of more efficient refrigerants. 
Final

67

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

EISA 2007 included prescriptive standards for walk-in freezers that went into effect in 2009. These prescriptive standards, 

which are included in all units for 2011 and beyond, state that all walk-in freezers manufactured after January 1, 2009, 

must:

• have automatic door closers 

• have strip doors, spring hinged doors, or other method of minimizing infiltration when doors are open

• contain wall, ceiling, and door insulation of at least R–32, except for glazed portions of doors and structural members

• contain floor insulation of at least R–28

• use electronically commutated motors or three-phase motors (for evaporator fan motors of under 1 horsepower and 

less than 460 volts)

• use electronically commutated motors, permanent split capacitor-type motors, or three-phase motors (for condenser 

fan motors of under 1 horsepower)

• use light sources with an efficacy of 40 lumens per watt or more, including ballast losses (if any), except that light 

sources with an efficacy of 40 lumens per watt or less, including ballast losses (if any), may be used in conjunction 

with a timer or device that turns off the lights within 15 minutes of when the walk-in freezer is not occupied by 

people.
Final

68

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

In 2014, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for walk-in coolers and freezers. Minimum AWEF (Annual 

Walk-in Energy Factor) was set for refrigeration systems, as well as upper limits on energy consumption attributable to 

passage, freight, and display doors. DOE elected not to set new standards for the R-value of Walk-in Panels.

ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR WALK-IN COOLERS AND WALK-IN FREEZERS

Class descriptor Class Standard lev el

Refrigeration Systems Minimum AWEF (Btu/W-h)

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Indoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ......... DC.M.I, <9,000 ... 5.61

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Indoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ......... DC.M.I, ≥ 9,000 ... 5.61

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Outdoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ...... DC.M.O, <9,000 ...7.60

Dedicated Condensing, Medium Temperature, Outdoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ...... DC.M.O,≥9,000 ...7.60

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Indoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............... DC.L.I, <9,000 ..... 5.93 ⋅ 10¥5 ⋅Q + 2.33

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Indoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............... DC.L.I, ≥9,000 .... 3.10

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Outdoor System, <9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............. DC.L.O, <9,000 .. 2.30 ⋅ 10¥4 ⋅Q + 2.73

Dedicated Condensing, Low Temperature, Outdoor System, ≥ 9,000 Btu/h Capacity ............. DC.L.O, ≥9,000 .. 4.79

Multiplex Condensing, Medium Temperature ........................................................................... MC.M .................. 10.89

Multiplex Condensing, Low Temperature ................................................................................. MC.L ................... 6.57

Panels Minimum R-v alue (h-ft2-°F/Btu)

Structural Panel, Medium Temperature .................................................................................... SP.M .................. 25

Structural Panel, Low Temperature .......................................................................................... SP.L ................... 32

Floor Panel, Low Temperature ................................................................................................. FP.L .................... 28

Non-Display Doors Maximum energy consumption

(kWh/day) **

Passage Door, Medium Temperature ...................................................................................... PD.M .................. 0.05 ⋅And + 1.7

Passage Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................. PD.L ................... 0.14 ⋅And + 4.8

Freight Door, Medium Temperature ......................................................................................... FD.M .................. 0.04 ⋅And + 1.9

Freight Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................... FD.L ................... 0.12 ⋅And + 5.6

Display Doors Maximum Energy Consumption (kWh/day) †

Display Door, Medium Temperature ......................................................................................... DD.M .................. 0.04 ⋅Add + 0.41

Display Door, Low Temperature ............................................................................................... DD.L ................... 0.15 ⋅Add + 0.29
Final

69

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Ice Machines

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR6 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Output (pounds [lbs] per day) 1 300 641 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h)2 1963 4194 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580 4580

Water Use per Hundred Pounds 

(gal/hundred lbs)3 20 25 25 20 15 15 20 15 20 15 20 15

Energy Use per Hundred Pounds 

(kWh/hundred lbs) 7.7 7.5 7.1 5.8 4.8 4.8 5.8 4.8 5.8 4.8 5.8 4.8

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)4 3,185 2,502 1,675 1,478 1,190 1,190 1,330 1,071 1,197 964 1,077 868

Indexed Annual Efficiency5 1.00 1.27 1.90 2.15 2.68 2.68 2.39 2.97 2.66 3.30 2.96 3.67

Average Life (years) 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $2,146 $2,616 $2,946 $3,020 $3,368 $3,368 $3,020 $3,368 $3,020 $3,368 $3,020 $3,368 

Total Installed Cost (with Bin) $2,441 $3,626 $3,276 $3,350 $3,737 $3,737 $3,350 $3,737 $3,350 $3,737 $3,350 $3,737 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $1,244 $865 $715 $732 $816 $816 $732 $816 $732 $816 $732 $816 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)7 $826 $826 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $421 $197 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175 $175

1. Based on the average output from the Compliance Certification Database and values within 2022 Automatic Commercial Ice Maker (ACIM) TSD.

2. Defined as the average heat load to remove the latent and sensible heat required to freeze the daily output capacity of ice.

3. Water use refers to potable water.

4. EPACT 2005 energy standards went into effect in 2010. The 2015 low values are based on this standard. In 2014, DOE set new standards for commercial ice machines, with compliance required by 

2018. The unit characterized for 2012 and beyond uses data from this rulemaking. All units for 2020 and beyond are assumed to comply with the updated standard.

5. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

6. The ENERGY STAR category is based on minimum compliance with the ENERGY STAR v3.0 standard, which went into effect on January28, 2018. According to this analysis, ENERGY STAR 

certification is typical for the small air-cooled ice-making head (IMH) unit characterized.

7. Maintenance cost is based on the average cost of equipment within the 700 lb/day output range and includes cleaning and maintaining refrigerant levels, replacing filters, checking water 

distribution lines for leaks, cleaning, sanitizing, and descaling the bin and water system. Maintenance cost decreases as the size of the ice machine (i.e. output) decreases.

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

70

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Ice Machines

• Commercial ice machines are typically integrated with an insulated ice storage bin or mounted on top of a separate 

storage bin. The retail equipment cost includes the ice making head and the integrated storage bin. Commercial ice 

machine condensers are either air-cooled or water-cooled. Approximately 90% of all units are the air-cooled type.

• Commercial ice machine maintenance includes periodic cleaning (every 2 to 6 weeks) to remove lime and scale and 

sanitizing to kill bacteria. Some ice machines are self-cleaning/sanitizing.

• ENERGY STAR® updated its maximum energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per 100 pounds of ice, for aircooled ice machines that went into effect on January 28, 2018. These efficiency levels are based on the harvest rate, in 

pounds per 24 hours. (H). Water-cooled ice machines are not eligible for ENERGY STAR certification.

• For this Advanced Case, a 10% reduction in energy consumption is projected over the Reference Case due to the 

adoption of more efficient refrigerants such as propane, which, while not currently required by EPA SNAP, are a 

source of possible efficiency improvements.

ENERGY STAR Requirements for Air-Cooled Batch-Type Ice Makers

Equipment Type

Applicable Ice 

Harvest Rate Range 

(lbs of ice/24 hrs)

Energy 

Consumption Rate 

(kWh/100 lbs ice)

Potable Water Use 

(gal/hundred lbs

ice)

IMH 200 ≤ H ≤ 1600 ≤ 37.72 * H -0.298 ≤ 20.0

RCU

400 ≤ H ≤ 1600 ≤ 22.95 * H -0.258 + 

1.00 ≤ 20.0

1600 ≤ H ≤ 4000 ≤ -0.00011 * H + 4.60 ≤ 20.0

SCU 50 ≤ H ≤ 450 ≤ 48.66 * H -0.326 + 

0.08 ≤ 25.0

ENERGY STAR Requirements for Air-Cooled Continuous-Type Ice Makers

Equipment Type Energy Consumption Rate 

(kWh/hundred lbs ice)

Potable Water Use 

(gal/hundred lbs ice)

IMH ≤ 9.18 * H -0.057 ≤ 15.0

RCU ≤ 6.00 * H -0.162 + 3.50 ≤ 15.0

SCU ≤ 59.45 * H -0.349 + 0.08 ≤ 15.0
Final

71

EPACT 2005 issued standard levels for commercial ice machines with capacities between 50 pounds and 2500 pounds per 

24-hour period that are manufactured or sold in the United States on or after January 1, 2010. The energy consumption is 

based on the harvest rate in pounds per 24 hours (H). In 2015, DOE finalized new standards for ACIMs extending 

coverage to flake, nugget, and tube-type machines and to capacities up to 4,000 pounds per 24 hours.

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Ice Machines

Water use is for the condenser only and does not include potable water used to make ice.

Equipment Type Type of

Cooling

Harvest Rate

(lbs ice/24 hrs)

Maximum Energy Use

(kWh/hundred lbs ice)

Maximum Condenser Water

Use (gal/hundred lbs ice)

Ice Making Head

Water

<500 7.80-0.0055 H 200-0.022 H

≥500 and <1,436 5.58-0.0011 H 200-0.022 H

≥1,436 4.0 200-0.022 H

Air

<450 10.26-0.0086 H Not Applicable

≥450 6.89-0.0011 H Not Applicable

Remote Condensing

(but not remote compressor)

Air

<1,000 8.85-0.0038 H Not Applicable

≥1,000 5.10 Not Applicable

Remote Condensing

and Remote Compressor

Air

<934 8.85-0.0038 H Not Applicable

≥934 5.3 Not Applicable

Self Contained

Water

<200 11.40-0.019 H 191-0.0315 H

≥200 7.60 191-0.0315 H

Air

<175 18.0-0.0469 H Not Applicable

≥175 9.80 Not Applicable
Final

2014 DOE Standards

72

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Ice Machines

Energy Conservation Standards for Batch-Type Automatic Commercial Ice Makers 

Effective January 2018

Equipment Type Type of Cooling Harvest Rate

lb ice/24 hours

Maximum Energy 

Use

kWh/100 lb ice*

Maximum 

Condenser Water 

Use

gal/100 lb ice**

Ice-Making Head Water

<300 6.88 - 0.0055H 200 - 0.022H

300 and <850 5.80 - 0.00191H 200 - 0.022H

850 and <1,500 4.42 - 0.00028H 200 - 0.022H

1500 and <2,500 4.0 200 - 0.022H

2500 and <4,000 4.0 145

Ice-Making Head Air

<300 10 - 0.01233H Not Applicable

300 and <800 7.05 - 0.0025H Not Applicable

800 and <1500 5.55 - 0.00063H Not Applicable

1500 and <4,000 4.61 Not Applicable

Remote Condensing 

(but not remote 

compressor)

Air

50 and <1,000 7.97 - 0.00342H Not Applicable

1,000 and <4,000 4.55 Not Applicable

Remote Condensing 

and Remote 

Compressor

Air

<942 7.97 - 0.00342H Not Applicable

942 and <4,000 4.75 Not Applicable

Self-Contained Water

<200 9.5 - 0.019H 191 - 0.0315H

200 and <2,500 5.7 191 - 0.0315H

2500 and <4,000 5.7 112

Self-Contained Air

<110 14.79 - 0.0469H Not Applicable

110 and <200 12.42 - 0.02533H Not Applicable

200 and <4,000 7.35 Not Applicable

Energy Conservation Standards for Continuous-Type Automatic Commercial Ice Makers 

Effective January 2018

Equipment Type Type of Cooling Harvest Rate

lb ice/24 hours

Maximum Energy 

Use

kWh/100 lb ice*

Maximum 

Condenser Water 

Use

gal/100 lb ice**

Ice-Making Head Water

<801 6.48 - 0.00267H 180 - 0.0198H

801 and <2,500 4.34 180 - 0.0198H

2,500 and <4,000 4.34 130.5

Ice-Making Head Air

<310 9.19 - 0.00629H Not Applicable

310 and <820 8.23 - 0.0032H Not Applicable

820 and <4,000 5.61 Not Applicable

Remote 

Condensing (but 

not remote 

compressor)

Air

<800 9.7 - 0.0058H Not Applicable

800 and <4,000 5.06 Not Applicable

Remote 

Condensing and 

Remote 

Compressor

Air

<800 9.9 - 0.0058H Not Applicable

800 and <4,000 5.26 Not Applicable

Self-Contained Water

<900 7.6 - 0.00302H 153 - 0.0252H

900 and <2,500 4.88 153 - 0.0252H

2500 and <4,000 4.88 90

Self-Contained Air

<200 14.22 - 0.03H Not Applicable

200 and <700 9.47 - 0.00624H Not Applicable

700 and <4,000 5.1 Not Applicable
Final

73

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Beverage Merchandisers

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 4,689 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700

Size (ft3

) 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y) 1,829 1,635 1,380 1,141 902 902 1,141 902 1,084 857 1,030 814

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/ft3

/y)1 68 73 55 35 26 26 35 26 35 26 35 26

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.12 1.33 1.60 2.03 2.03 1.60 2.03 1.69 2.13 1.78 2.25

Average Life (years) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $2,382 $2,051 $1,710 $2,762 $3,332 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)4 $2,382 $2,051 $1,710 $2,762 $3,332 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 $2,762 $3,332 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $508 $436 $364 $588 $709 $709 $588 $709 $588 $709 $588 $709 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $108 $108 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $23.03 $22.98 $20.21 $20.21 $20.11 $20.11 $20.21 $20.11 $20.21 $20.11 $20.21 $20.11

1. EPACT 2005 energy conservation standards went into effect in 2010. In 2015, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for commercial refrigeration equipment, including transparentdoored refrigerators with pull-down capability. Compliance with this standard is required by 2017. Units characterized for 2018 and beyond use data reported in this rulemaking’s TSD. Units 

sold in 2022 and beyond are assumed to comply with this updated standard.

2. The ENERGY STAR category characterizes a unit that is compliant with ENERGY STAR v4, effective March 2017. This standard does not separately define units with pull-down capability.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use). 

4. Beverage merchandisers are shipped ready to be plugged in, so installation costs are assumed to be negligible.

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

74

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Beverage Merchandisers

• EPACT 2005 sets maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per day, for commercial refrigerators with 

transparent doors and self-contained condensing unit designed for pull-down temperature applications (i.e., beverage 

merchandisers) and went into effect on January 1, 2010. 

• In 2014, DOE updated its energy consumption standards for commercial refrigeration equipment, including beverage 

merchandisers, effective March 27, 2015. Both the DOE and EPCA standards are reported below. 

• In 2013, EPA updated its ENERGY STAR specifications for glass-doored commercial refrigerators, which can be used as 

beverage merchandisers, effective October 1, 2014. These standards are also based on the volume of the unit (V). Note that 

ENERGY STAR does not have a separate equipment class for units with pull-down capability. 

Equipment Type EPCA (2010) DOE Standards (2017)

Beverage Merchandisers 

(PD.SC.M)

0.126xV + 3.51 0.11xV+0.81

Beverage 

Merchandiser Size 0 < V < 15 15 ≤ V < 30 30 ≤ V < 50 50 ≤ V

Glass Door 0.118*V + 1.382 ≤ 0.140*V + 1.050 ≤ 0.088*V + 2.625 ≤ 0.110*V + 1.500
Final

75

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Beverage Merchandisers

• The beverage merchandiser characterized in this report, which is the typical unit according to DOE’s 2014 CRE 

rulemaking and additional analysis by Guidehouse, is a 27 cubic foot cooler with a single hinged, transparent door, 

bright lighting, and shelving with a nominal compressor size of 4,700 Btu/h. 

• The efficiency of beverage merchandisers can be increased through the use of more efficient compressors, 

fluorescent lighting with electronic ballasts, LED lighting, and improved insulation.

• For the Reference Case, beverage merchandisers are assumed to be mature technologies with few technology 

advancements in the coming years that would dramatically improve the efficiency. 

• For this Advanced Case, the typical unit in 2030 is assumed to comply with DOE’s updated energy conservation 

standards for commercial refrigeration

• By 2040, the adoption of vacuum insulated panels is assumed to occur, with the aid of decreased incremental 

costs due to increased R&D funding

• Beverage merchandisers may transition from HFC to more efficient propane.

• Projected installed costs for this Advanced Case are the same as the Reference Case, assuming increased R&D 

funding. Advanced energy-saving technologies are assumed to be made financially viable for operators by 

increased market incentives such as utility efficiency rebate programs and/or carbon pricing.

• This analysis finds that with increased R&D and market incentives for energy efficiency technologies, a limit of 

possible efficiency improvements for self-contained, vapor compression refrigeration systems will be reached by 

2040 and a 5% decrease in energy use from 2030 to 2040. 
Final

76

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) 1,810 1,707 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810

Can Capacity 470 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500

Size (ft3

) 26 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)1 1,632 1,550 1,550 1,531 1,443 1,443 1,455 1,371 1,382 1,302 1,313 1,237

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/ft3

/y) 63 44 44 44 41 41 42 39 39 37 38 35

Indexed Annual Efficiency3 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.07 1.13 1.13 1.12 1.19 1.18 1.25 1.24 1.32

Average Life (years) 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) $3,209 $2,553 $3,059 $3,272 $3,520 $3,520 $3,272 $3,520 $3,272 $3,520 $3,272 $3,520 

Total Installed Cost (2022$) $3,320 $2,705 $3,276 $3,489 $3,737 $3,737 $3,489 $3,737 $3,489 $3,737 $3,489 $3,737 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) $1,834 $1,585 $1,810 $1,928 $2,065 $2,065 $1,928 $2,065 $1,928 $2,065 $1,928 $2,065

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)4 $270 $270 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 $333 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) $149 $149 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184

1. Energy use for 2018 and beyond is estimated based on DOE’s 2020 BVM Final Rule and the 2022 Compliance Certification Database.

2. The ENERGY STAR category assumes units are compliant with the ENERGY STAR v4 standard because combination units are currentlynot separately defined by ENERGY STAR. This 

standard went into effect on April 29, 2020. Our analysis finds ENERGY STAR certified equipment to be the most efficient currently available on the market.

3. Annual efficiency normalized to the efficiency of the 2012 installed base. Indexed Annual Efficiency = (2012 Energy Use) / (Energy Use).

4. Maintenance cost includes preventative maintenance costs such as checking and maintaining refrigerant charge levels, cleaningheat exchanger coils, and an annualized cost for 

refurbishments/remanufacturing. 

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

77

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

• DOE set federal energy efficiency standards for refrigerated vending machines. These standards set maximum daily energy 

consumption levels, in kilowatt-hours per day, for commercial refrigerated vending machines manufactured or sold in the 

United States on or after August 31, 2012. The daily energy consumption is based on the volume of the unit (V).

• In December 2015, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for beverage vending machines and defined two new 

product classes for combination vending machines. The energy conservation standard remains the same in the updated 

2022 technical support document for vending machines. Compliance with these standards was required by 2019. For this 

analysis, compliance with these updated standards is assumed for equipment sold in 2022 and beyond. The updated 

standards and DOE equipment definitions are listed in the table below.

Equipment Type Maximum Daily Energy Consumption

Class A (Transparent-Front) MDEC= 0.052 × V + 2.43

Class B (Solid-Front) MDEC = 0.052 × V + 2.20 

Combination A MDEC = 0.086 × V + 2.66

Combination B MDEC = 0.111 × V + 2.04
Final

78

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

Equipment Class Maximum daily energy consumption (kilowatt-hours per day)

Class A – a refrigerated bottled or canned beverage vending machine that is not a 

combination vending machine and in which 25% or more of the surface area on the 

front side of the beverage vending machine is transparent

MDEC = 0.04836 x V + 2.2599

Class B – any refrigerated bottled or canned beverage vending machine that is not 

considered to be Class A and is not a combination vending machine MDEC = 0.04576 x V+1.936

Combination A – a combination vending machine where 25% or more of the 

surface area on the front side of the beverage vending machine is transparent MDEC = 0.07998 x V + 2.4738

Combination B – a combination vending machine that is not considered to be 

Combination A MDEC = 0.09768 x V + 1.7952

ENERGY STAR® updated its maximum daily energy consumption efficiency levels, also in kilowatt-hours per day, for 

refrigerated vending machines that went into effect on April 29, 2020. These efficiency levels are based on refrigerated 

volume.
Final

79

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

• DOE set federal energy efficiency standards for refrigerated vending machines in 2009. These standards set maximum daily energy consumption levels, in kWh/day, 

for commercial refrigerated vending machines manufactured and/or sold in the United States on or after August 31, 2012. The daily energy consumption is based on 

the volume of the unit (V).

• Refrigerated Vending Machines that are fully-cooled (Type A) ≤ 0.055*V + 2.56

• Refrigerated Vending Machines that are zone-cooled (Type B) ≤ 0.073*V + 3.16

• ENERGY STAR® updated its maximum daily energy consumption efficiency levels, also in kWh/day, for refrigerated vending machines, which went into effect on 

March 1, 2013. These efficiency levels are based on refrigerated volume.

• Currently, stakeholders such as Coca Cola have indicated a preference for CO2 refrigerant, which is less efficient. However, this Advanced Case scenario assumes 

a shift to more efficient propane for cost and energy consumption projections due to the superior efficiency of propane refrigerant. 

• By 2040, the adoption of vacuum insulated panels is assumed to occur, with the aid of decreased incremental costs due to increased R&D funding

• Projected installed costs for this Advanced Case are higher than the Reference Case, even assuming increased R&D funding. Advanced energy-saving 

technologies are assumed to be made financially viable for operators by increased market incentives such as utility efficiency rebate programs and/or carbon 

pricing.

• This analysis finds that with increased R&D and market incentives for energy efficiency technologies, a limit of possible efficiency improvements for selfcontained, vapor compression refrigeration systems will be reached by 2040. 

Equipment Type Maximum Daily Energy 

Consumption

Low Power Mode Requirement

Class A (Transparent-Front) MDEC= 0.0523 x V + 2.432 Hard-wired controls and/or software capable 

of placing the machine into a low power 

mode during periods of extended inactivity 

while still connected to its power source Class B (Solid-Front) MDEC = 0.0657 x V + 2.844 
Final

80

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

Equipment Class Maximum daily energy consumption (kilowatt hours per day)

Class A – a refrigerated bottled or canned beverage vending machine that is not a 

combination vending machine and in which 25 percent or more of the surface area 

on the front side of the beverage vending machine is transparent

MDEC = 0.052 x V + 2.43

Class B – any refrigerated bottled or canned beverage vending machine that is not 

considered to be Class A and is not a combination vending machine MDEC = 0.052 x V + 2.20

Combination A – a combination vending machine where 25 percent or more of the 

surface area on the front side of the beverage vending machine is transparent MDEC = 0.086 x V + 2.66

Combination B – a combination vending machine that is not considered to be 

Combination A MDEC = 0.111 x V + 2.04

In December 2015, DOE updated its energy conservation standards for beverage vending machines, and defined two new 

product classes for combination vending machines Compliance with these standards is required by 2019. For this analysis, 

compliance with these updated standards is assumed for equipment sold in 2020 and beyond. The updated standards and 

DOE equipment definitions are listed in the table below.
Final

81

Commercial Ventilation 
Final

82

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Constant Air Volume

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average3

Low4,5 Typical4,6 High4,7 ENERGY 

STAR Typical4,6 High4,7 Typical4,6 High4,7 Typical4,6 High4,7

System Airflow (CFM) 15,000 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 N/A 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300

System Fan Power (kW) 11.56 11.56 11.56 10.98 10.78 N/A 10.98 10.78 10.98 10.78 10.98 10.78

Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) 0.771 0.709 0.709 0.674 0.661 N/A 0.674 0.661 0.674 0.661 0.674 0.661

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)1

43,924 23,038 23,038 21,886 20,792 N/A 20,792 19,752 19,752 18,765 18,765 17,826

Average Life (years) 35 35 35 35 35 N/A 35 35 35 35 35 35

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2

$80,288 $83,083 $83,083 $86,901 $90,651 N/A $86,901 $90,651 $86,901 $90,651 $86,901 $90,651 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 N/A $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand 

CFM) $5,353 $5,097 $5,097 $5,331 $5,561 N/A $5,331 $5,561 $5,331 $5,561 $5,331 $5,561 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/thousand CFM) $70 $65 $65 $65 $65 N/A $65 $65 $65 $65 $65 $65 

1. Based on 3800 operating hours per year (ADL, 1999) and typical zone air flow requirement profile (ASHRAE S45.11-2012)

2. Total installed cost of 16,300 CFM constant air volume (CAV) air handling unit (AHU) and hypothetical supply ductwork layout

3. Based on ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 fan power limit (Table 6.5.3.1.1-1) with no pressure drop adjustment. Assumed 80% motor load and 91% motor efficiency

4. ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 Section 6.5.3.2 require minimum two-speed fan control (no longer always constant volume).

5. Two-speed variable frequency drive (VFD)

6. Modulating VFD

7. Modulating custom engineered VFD

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

83

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Constant Air Volume

• Constant air volume (CAV) ventilation systems are common, inexpensive, air-side HVAC systems that operate in response to a single control zone. Historically, 

these systems provide a constant flow rate of air (typically a mix of recirculated and outside air) and adjust the supply temperature of that air in order to maintain 

the space temperature setpoint. Beginning with ASHRAE 90.1-2013 and continued in ASHRAE 90.1-2019, new CAV ventilation systems were mandated to have at 

least two fan speed settings with the requirement of a maximum 40% power at 66% flow. Systems with variable speed fans are increasingly popular, making the 

term “constant air volume” somewhat of a misnomer for this system type. This analysis examines only the fan energy of the CAV system.

• There is movement in the industry and in energy codes to reduce fan power. ASHRAE 90.1 includes fan power limits for CAV systems. Fan power can be 

minimized through good design practice (efficient duct layout, low pressure drop ductwork, filters, coils), proper fan selection, and high efficiency type fans. 

ASHRAE 90.1-2019 now requires a minimum fan efficiency grade (FEG, based on AMCA 205-12: Energy Efficiency Classification for Fans) of 67 and a design 

operating fan efficiency within 15% of the maximum fan total efficiency. There are exceptions to this requirement, including packaged systems such as the CAV 

system type considered here. Still the fan power limits are expected to become more stringent, and fan efficiency will become more important throughout the 

industry.

• The unit characterized in this report is a 16,300 CFM CAV system. The average commercial building is approximately 16,300 square feet (CBECS 2018). Assuming 

1 CFM is needed per square foot of floor area results in a 16,300 CFM air handling unit.

• A 16,300 CFM CAV packaged indoor air handling unit with cooling and heating coils can be installed for approximately $71,829 (RS Means 2022). Ductwork 

would cost approximately $9,272 additional ($81,101 total). A two-speed motor (estimated $500 incremental cost) and variable frequency drive (estimated $5,800) 

add cost. Custom engineered variable frequency drives (estimated $9,550) and premium efficiency motors (estimated additional $1,500) add an additional cost to 

the system.

• Annual maintenance cost assumes 8 hours worth of labor by a technician to perform the necessary tasks (e.g., filter replacement, draining condenser water, etc.)

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a basis for most state energy codes, limits the fan power (brake HP or nameplate HP) for CAV systems. The 2016 version 

of Standard 90.1 was used to represent the 2018 minimum efficiency level (state energy codes typically refer to older versions of Standard 90.1 due to code 

revision cycles).

• Fan energy is affected by several factors, including fan type (e.g., centrifugal, axial), fan blade shape (e.g., forward-curved, backward-curved, backward-inclined, 

airfoil), drive type (belt or direct), configuration (plenum or housed centrifugal), system effects, duct design, filter and coil pressure drops, motor efficiency, and 

speed and flow control. 

• For this Advanced Case, the projections from 2030 to 2050 for system fan power and annual fan energy use assume a 5% improvement per decade based on 

the assumption that use of variable frequency drives and incremental improvements in technology will increase.
Final

84

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Variable Air Volume

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average3

Low4 Typical5 High6 ENERGY 

STAR Typical6 High6,7 Typical6,7 High6,7 Typical6,7 High6,7

System Airflow (CFM) 15,000 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 N/A 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300 16,300

System Fan Power (kW) 15.99 15.99 15.99 15.99 15.99 N/A 15.99 15.19 15.99 15.19 15.99 15.19

Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) 1.066 1.066 0.981 0.981 0.981 N/A 0.981 0.932 0.981 0.932 0.981 0.932

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/yr)1

24,699 24,082 24,082 22,878 21,734 N/A 21,734 20,647 20,647 19,615 19,615 18,634

Average Life (yrs) 28 28 28 28 28 N/A 28 28 28 28 28 28

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2

$103,327 $110,414 $118,814 $124,495 $124,995 N/A $124,495 $124,995 $124,495 $124,995 $124,495 $124,995 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 N/A $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 $1,054 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/1000 CFM) $6,888 $6,774 $7,289 $7,638 $7,668 N/A $7,638 $7,668 $7,638 $7,668 $7,638 $7,668 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/1000 

CFM) $70 $65 $65 $65 $65 N/A $65 $65 $65 $65 $65 $65 

1. Based on 3800 operating hours per year (ADL, 1999) and typical zone air flow requirement profile (ASHRAE S45.11-2012)

2. Total installed cost of 16,300 CFM VAV AHU, VFD, (10) VAV boxes, (10) VAV controllers with associated space temperature sensor, and hypothetical supply ductwork layout

3. Based on ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 fan power limit (Table 6.5.3.1.1-1) with no pressure drop adjustment. Assumed 80% motor load and 91% motor efficiency

4. ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 Section 6.5.3.2 minimum power-flow requirement

5. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 fan power limit and typical VAV power-flow relationship for 40%-100% flow

6. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 fan power limit and typical VAV power-flow relationship for 30%-100% flow

7. High aerodynamic efficiency fan

Lower annual energy use compared with Reference Case 
Final

85

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Variable Air Volume

• Variable air volume (VAV) ventilation systems are the most common multi-zone system type specified today for conditioning commercial buildings. These systems 

provide conditioned air to multiple zone terminal units (VAV boxes) that use dampers to modulate the amount of cool air to each zone. An individual zone 

thermostat controls the VAV box damper to allow more or less cooling. If a zone requires heating, then the VAV box provides the minimum flow rate and typically 

includes a reheat coil to meet the space temperature setpoint. As VAV box dampers close in the system, a variable frequency drive reduces fan speed and flow 

continuously to meet current requirements.

• This analysis examines only the fan energy of the VAV system. VAV systems vary fan speed and flow to meet space conditioning requirements; minimum flow 

settings apply for DX cooling stages and gas furnace heating stages. Most hours of operation are much lower than full speed, and fan power varies with the cube of 

fan speed according to fan affinity laws. The 2012 ASHRAE Handbook: HVAC Systems and Equipment (p. 45.11) provided the typical flow profile used for this 

analysis. The unit characterized in this report is a 16,300 CFM VAV system. 

• There is movement in the industry and in energy codes to reduce fan power. ASHRAE 90.1 includes fan power limits for VAV systems. Fan power can be minimized 

through good design practice (efficient duct layout, low pressure drop ductwork, filters, coils), proper fan selection, and high efficiency type fans. ASHRAE 90.1-

2019 now requires a minimum fan efficiency grade (FEG, based on AMCA 205-12: Energy Efficiency Classification for Fans) of 67 and a design operating fan 

efficiency within 15% of the maximum fan total efficiency. There are exceptions to this requirement, including packaged systems such as the VAV system type 

considered here. Still the fan power limits are expected to become more stringent, and fan efficiency will become more important throughout the industry.

• A 16,300 CFM VAV packaged indoor air handling unit with cooling and heating coils can be installed for approximately $82,023 (RS Means 2022). Ductwork and (10) 

VAV boxes with reheat would cost approximately an additional $28,272. (10) VAV controllers and the associated space temperature sensor would cost approximately 

$8,400 ($118,695 total). A 15 hp variable frequency drive (estimated $5,800) is an additional cost.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a basis for most state energy codes, limits the fan power for VAV systems (brake HP or nameplate HP). The 2016 version of 

Standard 90.1 was used to represent the 2018 minimum efficiency level (state energy codes typically refer to older versions of Standard 90.1 due to code revision 

cycles).

• Annual maintenance cost assumes 8 hours worth of labor by a technician to perform the necessary tasks (e.g., filter replacement, draining condenser water, etc.)

• Fan energy is affected by several factors, including fan type (e.g., centrifugal, axial), fan blade shape (e.g., forward-curved, backward-curved, backward-inclined, 

airfoil), drive type (belt or direct), configuration (plenum or housed centrifugal), system effects, duct design, filter and coil pressure drops, and motor VFD 

efficiency. 

• For this Advanced Case, the projections from 2030 to 2050 for system fan power and annual fan energy use assume a 5% improvement per decade based on the 

assumption use of variable frequency drives and incremental improvements in technology will increase.
Final

86

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Fan Coil Units

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average5

Low3 Typical5 High6 ENERGY 

STAR Typical4,6 High4,7 Typical4,7 High4,8 Typical4,8 High4,8,9

System Airflow (CFM) 800 800 800 800 800 N/A 800 800 800 800 800 800

System Fan Power (kW) 0.241 0.241 0.241 0.148 0.148 N/A 0.141 0.134 0.134 0.136 0.136 0.129

Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) 0.302 0.302 0.301 0.185 0.185 N/A 0.176 0.167 0.167 0.170 0.170 0.162

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)1

543 542 542 333 333 N/A 316 301 301 306 306 291

Average Life (years) 37 37 37 37 37 N/A 37 37 37 37 37 37

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2

$2,845 $2,688 $3,038 $3,521 $3,961 N/A $3,961 $4,161 $3,961 $4,161 $3,961 $4,161 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) $117 $117 $117 $117 $117 N/A $117 $117 $117 $117 $117 $117 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand 

CFM) $3,557 $3,360 $3,798 $4,401 $4,951 N/A $4,951 $5,201 $4,951 $5,201 $4,951 $5,201 

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/thousand CFM) $146 $146 $146 $146 $146 N/A $146 $146 $146 $146 $146 $146 

1. Based on 2250 operating hours per year (ADL, 1999) and typical zone air flow requirement profile (ASHRAE S45.11-2012)

2. Total installed cost of 2-ton horizontal two-pipe fan coil unit, housing, and controls

3. Based on ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 fan power limit (Table 6.5.3.1.1-1) with no pressure drop adjustment. Assumed 80% motor load and 91% motor efficiency

4. Based on ASHRAE 90.1-2016 and 2019 Section 6.5.3.6 requirement of electronically commutated or 70+% efficient fan motor

5. Permanent split capacitor fan motor

6. Electronically commutated fan motor (single speed)

7. Electronically commutated fan motor (two-speed)

8. Electronically commutated fan motor (variable speed)

9. High aerodynamic efficiency fan

Same as Reference Case 
Final

87

Performance and Cost Characteristics » Commercial Fan Coil Units

• Commercial fan coil units (FCUs) are self-contained, mass-produced assemblies that provide cooling, heating, or cooling and heating, but they do not include the 

source of cooling or heating. The unit characterized in this report is a cooling only (two-pipe), horizontal unit with housing and controls. Fan coil units are typically 

installed in or adjacent to the space being served and have no (or very limited) ductwork. 

• According to manufacturer literature, the cooling capacity for a nominal 800 CFM fan coil unit is about 2 tons. This analysis examines only the fan energy of FCUs.

• Fan coil unit fan motors can be shaded pole, a single-phase AC motor with offset start winding and no capacitor; PSC, a single-phase AC motor with offset start 

winding with capacitor; or ECM, an AC electronically commutated permanent magnet DC motor. PSC motors are currently the most common motor type in FCUs, 

but manufacturers also offer single speed, two speed, and ECM motors as an option. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 requires an electronically commutated fan motor (or 

minimum motor efficiency of 70%) for this system.

• There is movement in the industry and in energy codes to reduce fan power. ASHRAE 90.1 includes fan power limits for FCUs. Fan power can be minimized 

through good design practice and high efficiency type fans. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 now requires a minimum fan efficiency grade (FEG, based on AMCA 205-12: 

Energy Efficiency Classification for Fans) of 67 and a design operating fan efficiency within 15% of the maximum fan total efficiency. There are exceptions to this 

requirement, including small systems such as the FCU considered here. Still the fan power limits are expected to become more stringent, and fan efficiency will 

become more important throughout the industry.

• Fan coil units have higher maintenance costs than central air systems due to the distributed nature of the system. For each unit, the filters must be changed, and 

drain systems must be flushed periodically.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a basis for most state energy codes, limits the fan power (brake HP or nameplate HP). The 2016 version of Standard 90.1 

was used to represent the 2018 minimum efficiency level (state energy codes typically refer to older versions of Standard 90.1 due to code revision cycles).

• Fan energy is affected by several factors, including fan type configuration, filter and coil pressure drops, motor efficiency, and fan speed control. 
Final

Appendix A

Data Sources

A-1

Guidehouse

1200 19th Street, NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

And

Leidos

8301 Greensboro Drive

McLean, VA 22102
Final

Residential Lighting

A-2
Final

90

Data Sources » Residential General Service LED Lamps (60 Watt Equivalent)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023** 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting 

in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

2020 DOE LED 

Pricing Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting 

in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

2020 DOE LED 

Pricing Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated N/A Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

91

Data Sources » Residential General Service Filament-LED Lamps (60 Watt Equivalent)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023** 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting 

in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

2020 DOE LED 

Pricing Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting 

in General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

2020 DOE LED 

Pricing Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated N/A Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

92

Data Sources » Residential Reflector LED BR30

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023** 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage Model 

Reference 

Scenario, 

Energy 

Savings 

Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illuminatio

n 

Application

s (Navigant, 

2019)

2020 DOE 

LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model 

Reference 

Scenario, 

Energy 

Savings 

Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illuminatio

n 

Application

s (Navigant, 

2019)

2020 DOE 

LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated N/A Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

93

Data Sources » Residential Reflector LED PAR38

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023** 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast of 

Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated N/A Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

94

Data Sources » Residential Linear LED Replacement Lamp 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Webscrape 

Database Distributor Websites

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Same as 2022 Typical and High

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI 2016 EIA Ref. Case Distributor Websites

Distributor Websites Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) 2016 EIA Ref. Case

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$) LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database Distributor Websites Calculated

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

95

Data Sources » Residential Linear LED Luminaire

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database Distributor Websites

Calculated

System Lumens Assume Same as 2022 Typical and High

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Distributor Websites Distributor Websites

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$) LED Webscrape 

Database

DOE Web Scrape 

Database Distributor Websites Calculated

Ballast Price (2022$)

N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA Ref. Case 2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

96

Data Sources » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Security: LED PAR38)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023* 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

Same as Residential LED PAR38

Lamp Lumens 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

CRI

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (1000 hrs) 

Annual Operating Hours (hrs/yr)

Lamp Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

Labor Cost (2022$/hr)

Labor Lamp Installation (hr)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/klm)
Final

97

Data Sources » Residential Outdoor Lamps (Porch: LED A-Type)

DATA SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023* 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR* Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage Model 

Reference 

Scenario, 

Energy 

Savings 

Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 

2019)

2020 DOE 

LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

ENERGY 

STAR, 2020

DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Calculated Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

CRI

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs N/A

Assume Unchanged Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

Model 

Reference 

Scenario, 

Energy 

Savings 

Forecast of 

Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 

2019)

2020 DOE 

LED Pricing 

Analysis

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

N/A

Model DOE Goals Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) N/A Labor Lamp Installation (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

Commercial Lighting

A-10
Final

99

Data Sources » Commercial General Service 100W Equivalent LED Replacement Lamp in Recessed Can Fixture

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs ENERGY STAR, 

2020 DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

Calculated System Lumens* 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE)

CRI

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

ENERGY STAR, 

2020

N/A

Assume Unchanged

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) ENERGY STAR, 

2020

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019) Assume Unchanged

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp P rice (2022$)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019) Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs N/A

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast P rice (2022$) N/A N/A Fixture Price (2022$)*

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA 

Reference Case Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

100

Data Sources » Commercial LED Reflector Lighting (PAR38)

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs ENERGY STAR, 

2020 DOE, 2022

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Unchanged

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

Calculated System Lumens*

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE)

CRI

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs 

ENERGY STAR, 

2020

N/A

Assume Unchanged

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) N/A

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) ENERGY STAR, 

2020

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State 

Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019) Assume Unchanged

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp P rice (2022$)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model Reference 

Scenario, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019) Distributor Websites or Product Catalogs N/A

Model Reference Scenario, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast P rice (2022$) N/A N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) N/A N/A

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA 

Reference Case Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

A-13

Data Sources » Commercial 4-ft Linear LED Replacement Lamp in 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

LED 

Webscrape 

Database

Distributor Websites

Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Same as 2022 Typical and High

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting 

in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI

Distributor Websites Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

LED 

Webscrape 

Database

Distributor Websites Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting 

in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case 2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) Assume unchanged

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

A-14

Data Sources » Commercial 4-ft Linear LED Luminaire to Replace 2-Lamp Systems

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage LED 

Webscrape 

Database

Distributor Websites

Calculated

System Lumens Assume Same as 2022 Typical and High

System Efficacy (lm/W) Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting 

in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A

CRI

Distributor Websites Correlated Color Temperature (CCT)

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$)

LED 

Webscrape 

Database

Distributor Websites Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting 

in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case 2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours) 2022 RS Means Online

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

A-15

Data Sources » Commercial 8-ft Linear LED Replacement Lamp for a 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

N/A

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Distributor Websites Calculated

Lamp Lumens Assume Same as 2022 Typical and High

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

Calculated

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Wattage 

System Lumens Calculated Calculated

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Distributor Websites

Average Lamp Life (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Distributor Websites

Calculated

Ballast Price (2022$) N/A Fixture Price (2022$)

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm)

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours) N/A

Labor Lamp Change (hours) Chapter 8; Table 8.2.4 of GSFL IRL Preliminary Analysis TSD (DOE, 2013)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

A-16

Data Sources » Commercial 8-ft Linear LED Luminaire Replacement for a 2-Lamp System

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Lamp Wattage 

N/A

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Distributor Websites

Calculated

System Lumens Assume Same as 2022 Typical and High

System Efficacy (lm/W) Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in 

General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A

CRI 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Distributor Websites

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$)

2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

Distributor Websites

Ballast Price (2022$)

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated

Labor Cost (2022$/h) 2016 EIA Ref. 

Case, 2015 

typical

2022 RS Means Online Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours) N/A

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

105

Data Sources » Commercial LED Low-Bay Luminaire

DAT A SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High

Lamp Wattage 

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

N/A

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 

2019)

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency N/A N/A N/A

CRI

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Correlated Color T emperature (CCT ) Assume Unchanged

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 

2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 

2019)

Ballast Price (2022$)

N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 

2019)

Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case 2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

106

Data Sources » Commercial LED High-Bay Luminaire

DAT A SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed Stock 

Average Low T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High T ypical High

Lamp Wattage 

Lamp Lumens N/A

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

System Wattage 

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

N/A

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

System Lumens 

System Efficacy (lm/W) 

Ballast Efficiency (BLE) N/A N/A N/A

CRI Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Correlated Color T emperature (CCT ) Assume Unchanged

Average Lifetime (thousand hours) 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Annual Operating Hours (h/y) DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017 DOE, 2017

Lamp or Luminaire Price (2022$)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case

Model, Energy 

Savings Forecast 

of Solid-State 

Lighting in 

General 

Illumination 

Applications 

(Navigant, 2019)

Distributor Websites or Product 

Catalogs 

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019)

Ballast Price (2022$)

N/A N/A

Fixture Price (2022$) N/A

Lamp Cost (2022$/klm) 

System (l/b/f) Cost (2022$/klm) Calculated Calculated

Model, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications (Navigant, 2019) Labor Cost (2022$/h)

2016 EIA 

Reference Case 2022 RS Means Online

Labor System Installation (hours)

Labor Lamp Change (hours)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$)

Calculated Calculated Calculated Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

T otal Installed Cost (2022$/klm)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/klm)
Final

Refrigeration

A-19
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Compressor Rack Systems

A-3

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Capacity (kBtu/h) ADL, 1996 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Median Store Size (ft2

) 

Food 

Marketing 

Institute 

(FMI), 2012

CBECS 2018

Power Input (kW) Copeland, 

2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use (MMWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / 

NCI 

Analysis, 

2015

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Indexed Annual Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) KysorWarren, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

NCI, 2009 /

NCI 

Analysis, 

2012

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

NCI 

Analysis, 

2008

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Condensers

A-4

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Total Capacity (kBtu/h)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 / Heatcraft, 

2008 / ADL, 1996

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Median Store Size (ft2) 

Food Marketing 

Institute (FMI), 

2012

CBECS 2018

Power Input (kW)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 / Heatcraft, 

2008 / ADL, 1996

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(MMWh/y)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 / ADL, 1996 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Indexed Annual Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 / Heatcraft, 

2008 / RS Means, 

2007

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Supermarket Display Cases

A-2

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical ENERGY 

STAR High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Median Store Size (ft2) 

Food Marketing 

Institute (FMI), 

2012

CBECS 2018

Case Length (ft) DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)1,2

DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use / Case 

Length (kWh/ft) Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency3 Calculated

Average Life (years) DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)

DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / The Restaurant Store

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)4

DOE, 2007 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Reach-In Refrigerators

A-7

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h)ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report

Size (ft3) 

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites

DOE, 2014: CRE Report

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / ENERGY STAR 2022

Annual Energy Use / 

Volume (kWh/y/ft3)

NCI Analysis, 

2012 Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) Calculated

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$) ACEEE, 2002 DOE, 2014: CRE TSD

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996/ 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / ENERGY STAR 2022 / The Restaurant Store

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$) Calculated

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 

NCI Analysis, 

2008 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Reach-In Freezers

A-8

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity 

(Btu/h)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2016: CRE Report

Size (ft3) 

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites

DOE, 2016: CRE Report

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use / 

Volume (kWh/y/ft3)

NCI Analysis, 

2012 Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) ACEEE, 2002 DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment 

Cost (2022$)

ADL, 1996/ 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / ENERGY STAR 2022 / The Restaurant Store

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 DOE, 2016: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Walk-In Refrigerators

A-5

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity 

(Btu/h) DOE CRE Report 2016 / CCMS 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Size (ft2) DOE 2014 WICF TSD / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use / 

Area (kWh/ft2/y) Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency Calculated

Insulated Box 

Average Life (years)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Compressor Average 

Life (years)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment 

Cost (2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Webstaurant 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Webstaurant 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2023

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$)

ADL, 1996 / FMI, 

2005 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Walk-In Freezers

A-6

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity 

(Btu/h)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE CRE Report 2016 / CCMS 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Size (ft2) ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 / 

NCI Analysis, 

2008

Guidehouse CRE Report 2016

Annual Energy Use / 

Area (kWh/ft2/y) Calculated

Indexed Annual 

Efficiency Calculated

Insulated Box Average 

Life (years)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Compressor Average 

Life (years)

ADL, 1996 / 

PG&E, 2004 DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Webstaurant 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE CRE Report 2016 / Webstaurant 2022 / Guidehouse Analysis 2023

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$) DOE CRE Report 2016 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Ice Machines

A-9

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Output (pounds [lbs] per 

day)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022 / CCMS Database 2022

Water Use per Hundred 

Pounds (gal/hundred lbs)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor Web 

Sites

DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022 / CCMS Database 2022

Energy Use per Hundred 

Pounds (kWh/hundred 

lbs)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y)

ACEEE, 2002 /

NCI Analysis, 

2012

DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022 / ENERGY STAR

Indexed Annual EfficiencyCalculated

Average Life (years)

ADL, 1996/ 

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)

Distributor Web 

Sites / NCI 

Analysis, 2008

DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Total Installed Cost (with 

Bin)

NCI Analysis, 

2008 DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

ADL, 1996 / NCI 

Analysis, 2008 DOE, 2022: ACIM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Beverage Merchandisers

A-10

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h) DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Size (ft3

) 

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor 

Web Sites

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)

ADL, 1996 / 

NCI 

Analysis, 

2008

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / ENERGY STAR 2022

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/ft3

/y) Calculated

Indexed Annual Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) ACEEE, 2002 DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

ADL, 1996 / 

Distributor 

Web Sites

DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022 / KaTom Restaurant Supply

Total Installed Cost (2022$) DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) DOE, 2014: CRE Report / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Refrigerated Vending Machines

A-11

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

Cooling Capacity (Btu/h)

DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD / 

Guidehouse 

Analysis, 

2015

DOE, 2022: BVM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Can Capacity DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Size (ft3) DOE, 2022: BVM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y) DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Annual Energy Use / Volume 

(kWh/ft3/y) Calculated

Indexed Annual Efficiency Calculated

Average Life (years) DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Total Installed Cost (2022$) DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD DOE, 2022: BVM TSD

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

DOE, 2015: 

BVM TSD / 

Guidehouse 

Analysis, 

2015

DOE, 2022: BVM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) DOE, 2022: BVM TSD / Guidehouse Analysis, 2022
Final

118

Commercial Ventilation 
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Constant Air Volume Ventilation

A-12

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock Average

Installed 

Stock Average Low Typical High ENERGY STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

System Airflow (CFM) CBECS 2003 & 

BED 2007 CBECS 2018

System Fan Power (kW) ASHRAE 90.1-

2007

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016

ASHRAE 90.1-

2019 Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) ASHRAE 90.1 2019 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)

Average Life (years) ASHRAE: Service Life Database

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Variable Air Volume Ventilation

A-13

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

System Airflow (CFM) CBECS 2003 

& BED 2007 CBECS 2018

System Fan Power (kW) 

ASHRAE 

90.1-2007

ASHRAE 

90.1-2016

ASHRAE 

90.1-2019 Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) ASHRAE 90.1 2019 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)

Average Life (years) ASHRAE: Service Life Database

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/thousand 

CFM) Calculated
Final

Data Sources » Commercial Fan Coil Unit

A-14

DATA SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Installed 

Stock 

Average

Low Typical High ENERGY 

STAR Typical High Typical High Typical High

System Airflow (CFM) Product Literature

System Fan Power (kW) 

ASHRAE 90.1-

2007

ASHRAE 90.1-

2016

ASHRAE 90.1-

2019 Specific Fan Power (W/CFM) ASHRAE 90.1 2019 / Guidehouse Analysis 2022

Annual Fan Energy Use (kWh/y)

Average Life (years) ASHRAE: Service Life Database

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 2022 RS Means Online / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/thousand CFM) Calculated
Final

Appendix B

References

122

Guidehouse

1200 19th Street, NW, Suite 700

Washington, D.C. 20036

And

Leidos

11951 Freedom Drive 

Reston, VA 20190
Final

References

• ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database. (n.d.).

• ASHRAE 90.1-2010, 2016, 2019. Energy Standard for Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential Buildings

• Appliance Magazine. (2005). Portrait of the U.S. Appliance Industry. Appliance Magazine.

• Arthur D. Little. (1996). Energy Savings Potential for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment.

• DOE SSL Program. (2012a). 2010 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization

• DOE SSL Program. (2012b). Residential Lighting End-Use Consumption Study: Estimation Framework and Initial Estimates

• DOE SSL Program. (2017). 2015 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization

• DOE Appliance and Equipment Standards Program. (2022). The Compliance Certification Database.

• EERE. (2014). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Automatic Commercial Ice Makers

• EERE. (2014). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Commercial Refrigeration Equipment.

• EERE. (2014). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines

• EERE. (2015). Energy Conservation Program for Appliance Standards: Walk-in Coolers and Freezers.

• ENERGY STAR. (n.d.). Retrieved November 2015, from ENERGY STAR Products: 

http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=products.pr_find_es_products

• ENERGY STAR. (2020) from ENERGY STAR Lamps Specification Version 2.1: 

https://www.energystar.gov/sites/default/files/Lamps%20V2.1%20Final%20Specification%20%28Revised%20June%202

020%29_0.pdf

B-1
Final

References

• ENERGY STAR. (2014) ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Lamps (Light Bulbs) Eligibility 

Criteria Version 1.1

• ENERGY STAR. (2012) ENERGY STAR® Program Requirements Product Specification for Luminaires (Light Fixtures) 

Eligibility Criteria Version 1.1

• Environmental Protection Agency. (2022). Establishing a Recycling Program for Mercury-Containing Light Bulbs. From: 

https://www.epa.gov/hw/establishing-recycling-program-mercury-containing-light-bulbs

• Federal Standard. (1975). National energy conservation standards authorized under the Energy and Policy 

Conservation Act of 2007 (EPCA 1975).

• Federal Standard. (2005). National energy conservation standards authorized under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 

(EPACT 2005).

• Federal Standard. (2007). National energy conservation standards authorized under the Energy Independence and 

Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007).

• Food Marketing Institute. (n.d.). Retrieved May 2022, from FMI Supermarket Facts: https://www.fmi.org/ourresearch/supermarket-facts/average-total-store-size-square-feetLighting Research Institute. (1992). Specifier Reports, 

Specular Reflectors.

• KaTom. (n.d.) Retrieved May 2022, From: https://www.katom.com/

• Navigant Consulting, Inc. (2009). Energy Savings Potential and R&D Opportunities for Commercial Refrigeration.

• Navigant Consulting, Inc. (n.d.). In House Expertise.

B-2
Final

References

• Navigant Consulting, Inc. (2019). Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination 

Applications, Model. https://www.energy.gov/eere/ssl/downloads/2019-ssl-forecast-report

• Product Literature. (n.d.). Literature from manufacturers and experts on specific products

• The Restaurant Store. (n.d.). Retrieved May 2022, From: https://www.therestaurantstore.com/

• RS Means Online. (2022). Retrieved June 2022, From: https://www.rsmeansonline.com/

• Webstaurant. (n.d.) Retrieved May 2022, From: https://www.webstaurantstore.com/

B-3