U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Buildings Working Group Meeting

Energy Consumption and Efficiency Modeling Team

September 7, 2022 | Virtual

By

Buildings Energy Modeling Group

AEO2022 debrief and AEO2023 updates
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Overview

• AEO2022 debrief

• AEO2023

– Recent legislation and policy assumptions

• Inflation Reduction Act

• Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act

– COVID-19

– Modeling updates

– Historical updates

• Upcoming projects

• Discussion

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022 2
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2022 debrief

3

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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AEO2022 highlights

• Published Issues in Focus

– Alternative Weather Assumptions

– Extended and Sunset Tax Credit cases

• Updated miscellaneous electric loads (MELs)

– Based on Analysis and Representation of Miscellaneous Electric Loads in NEMS report

– New and disaggregated residential and commercial end uses

• Adjusted incentives for renewable distributed generation and end-use 

equipment to reflect extensions provided by the Consolidated Appropriations 

Act, 2021

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022 4
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2022: Alternative Weather Assumptions

5

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022

Changes in residential space conditioning by end use and case

Changes in commercial space conditioning by end use and case

Reference 10-yr Trend Cooler Warmer

U.S. degree day projections, Reference case and alternative 

weather assumption cases (1990–2050)

Annual Energy Outlook 2022: Alternative Weather Assumptions
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Annual Energy Outlook 2022: Extended and Sunset Tax Credit Cases

AEO2022: Extended and Sunset Tax Credits 

6

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022

On-site electricity generation among select end-use sectors, 

Reference and Extended and Sunset Tax Credit cases (2021–2050)

Buildings and industrial energy-related emissions, Reference and 

Extended and Sunset Tax Credit cases (2015–2050)
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

2021 2050

0

2

4

6

8

Electricity consumed to meet residential end-use 

demand

AEO2022 Reference case

quadrillion British thermal units

2021 2050

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

Characterized miscellaneous electric loads in the 

residential sector

AEO2022 Reference case

quadrillion British thermal units

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022

Note: The other MELs category includes aggregated energy use for end uses not explicitly characterized in the right-hand chart, as well as 

unspecified electricity consumption.

Residential electricity use and miscellaneous electrical loads

7

cooking

lighting

laundry and 

dishwashing

refrigeration 

and freezing

water heating

space heating

space cooling

characterized

miscellaneous 

electric loads

(MELS)

other MELs

security systems

tablets, phones, 

smart speakers, 

and rechargeable 

devices

small kitchen 

appliances

PCs and related 

equipment

pool pumps, 

heaters, and spas

ceiling fans and 

dehumidifiers

televisions and 

related equipment

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

2021 2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Electricity consumed to meet commercial end-use 

demand

AEO2022 Reference case

quadrillion British thermal units

2021 2050

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Thousands

Characterized miscellaneous electric loads in the 

commercial sector

AEO2022 Reference case

quadrillion British thermal units

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022

Note: The other MELs category includes aggregated energy use for end uses not explicitly characterized in the right-hand chart, as well as 

unspecified electricity consumption.

Commercial electricity use and miscellaneous electrical loads

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lab and diagnostic 

equipment

transformers

water services, 

parking lot 

lighting, and other 

non-building uses

IT and office 

equipment

water heating,

cooking, and

space heating

lighting

ventilation

space cooling

refrigeration and 

freezing

characterized 

miscellaneous 

electric loads

(MELs)

other MELs

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

30

60

90

120

150 2021

history projections

0

30

60

90

120

150 2021

history projections

Residential solar distributed generation capacity

gigawatts direct current

Commercial solar distributed generation capacity

gigawatts direct current

Solar photovoltaic capacity varies with equipment costs and fuel 

prices

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022

9

Low Oil and Gas 

Supply

Low Renewables 

Cost

High Renewables 

Cost

Reference

High Oil and Gas 

Supply

2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

Low Renewables 

Cost

Low Oil and Gas 

Supply

Reference

High Oil and Gas 

Supply

High Renewables 

Cost

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022
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AEO2023 (and beyond)

10

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Recent legislation and policy assumptions

• Inflation Reduction Act

– Extension and modification of energy credit (IRS 48): extend renewables and combined heat 

and power investment tax credits

– Residential clean energy credit: extend renewables and combined-heat-and-power 

investment tax credits

– Extension, increase, and modification of new energy efficient home credit (IRS 45L): extend 

tax credits for high efficiency residential housing packages (new construction)

– Extension, increase, and modification of nonbusiness energy property credit (IRS 25C): 

extend residential energy efficiency tax credits

– Cost recovery for qualified facilities, qualified property, and grid improvement property: 

extend Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) for modeled end-use 

equipment

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022 11
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Recent legislation and policy assumptions

• Inflation Reduction Act (continued)

– Home Owner Managing Energy Savings (HOMES) Rebates: investigate whole-home retrofit 

savings potential

– High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebate Program: investigate what share of homes and 

equipment qualifies

– Assistance for Latest and Zero Building Energy Code Adoption: investigate potential affects 

on regional building energy code adoption

– Energy efficient commercial buildings deduction (IRS 179D): investigate potential impact on 

building code compliance in new construction and heating and cooling energy use

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022 12
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Recent legislation and policy assumptions (continued)

• Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act

– Cost-Effective Codes Implementation for Efficiency and Resilience: investigate potential 

affects on regional building energy code adoption

– Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment Program: consider modifying future MELs 

penetration

• Incorporate new federal energy efficiency standard rulemakings if and when 

finalized.

• Identify any new ENERGY STAR specifications for major end-use equipment 

and MELs.

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022 13
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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COVID-19

• Historical data from EIA’s State Energy Data System (SEDS) through 2020 

and EIA’s Monthly Energy Review (MER) through 2021

• Near-term consumption from EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) 

forecasts

• Updated macroeconomic projections from IHS Markit (including housing 

starts and commercial floorspace builds)

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022 14
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2023 lighting, commercial refrigeration and ventilation update

Will be published to https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/

15

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Historical updates

• Update sectoral energy consumption by fuel.

– State Energy Data System (SEDS) and Monthly Energy Review (MER)

– Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

• Incorporate the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) 

latest historical heating and cooling degree day weather data (and forecast).

• Calibrate new residential heating equipment shares and average household 

square footage based on U.S. Census Bureau data.

• Revise historical distributed generation capacity, solar photovoltaic costs and 

characteristics, and combined-heat-and-power generation.

• Continue to refine historical (and projected) impacts of utility energy efficiency 

incentives.

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022 16
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

EIA Energy Consumption Survey updates

• 2018 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS)

– Building characteristics data tables and microdata has been released; preliminary consumption and 

expenditure data will be released later this month. We will likely release final data in December 

2022.

– Data will be in AEO2024 at the earliest.

– The 2018 CBECS does not capture long-term changes in commercial consumption caused by the 

pandemic (e.g., remote work, ventilation consumption); the AEO will capture such effects at the 

sector level from historical data and STEO forecasts.

• 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)

– National and state-level tables and the preliminary housing characteristics public-use microdata file 

are now available.

– National and state-level consumption and expenditures data will be released early Spring 2023.

– Data will be in AEO2024 at the earliest.

– 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) Webinar on September 14 at 1pm ET

17

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Upcoming projects

• Update technology cost and characteristics for space heating and cooling, 

water heating, cooking, and residential appliances.

• Investigate modeling of storage technologies for buildings.

• Identify ways in which we can use the residential and commercial models to 

analyze various types of buildings-related electrification.

18

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

2022 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings: 

Modeling Electrification in Buildings using NEMS

Data source: Modeling the Effects of Electrification in Buildings Using the National Energy Modeling System

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AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022

Category Model assumptions NEMS modeling elements

Technology Improved efficiency Technology characteristics

Miscellaneous electric loads (MELs) 

characteristics

Distributed generation (DG) and combinedheat-and-power (CHP) characteristics

Building envelope characteristics

Reduced equipment or installation costs Technology, DG/CHP characteristics

New technology options Technology, MELs, DG/CHP characteristics

Fuel switching Technology characteristics

Policy Future energy efficiency standards Technology, MELs, DG/CHP characteristics

Building energy codes Building envelope characteristics

Utility energy efficiency rebates Technology, DG/CHP characteristics

Federal tax credits Technology, DG/CHP, building envelope 

characteristics

Behavior Consumer purchase behavior Decision parameters

Consumer preferences for upfront versus 

operating costs

Decision parameters

Responses to increasing fuel prices Price elasticities
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

View our data online

• Interactive graphs available as part of 

our online data table browser

www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser

• Excel spreadsheets for Reference and 

side cases

www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/tables_ref.php

www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/tables_side_xls.php

• Buildings-specific chart highlights

www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2022_Char

tLibrary_Buildings.pdf

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022 20
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Questions or comments?

21

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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For more buildings information

Kevin Jarzomski | phone: 202-586-3208

| email: kevin.jarzomski@eia.gov

Courtney Sourmehi | phone: 202-586-0022

| email: courtney.sourmehi@eia.gov

Rosalie Dubberke | phone: 202-586-1926

| email: rosalie.dubberke@eia.gov

Travis Freidman | phone: 202-586-7493

| email: travis.freidman@eia.gov

Erin Boedecker | phone: 202-586-4791

Team Lead | email: erin.boedecker@eia.gov

22

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual September 

7, 2022
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration homepage | www.eia.gov

Buildings Working Group materials | www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/workinggroup/buildings

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

State Energy Data System | www.eia.gov/state/seds

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Residential Energy Consumption Survey | www.eia.gov/recs

Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey | www.eia.gov/cbecs

International Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/international

AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual 

September 7, 2022 23
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Bonus slides

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AEO2023 Buildings Working Group | Virtual September 

7, 2022
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Buildings energy data and modeling resources

Use our data, reports, and studies

2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)

2018 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS)

Repository of buildings reports and studies

Read our analyses

Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022)

Annual Energy Outlook 2022: Alternative Weather Assumptions

Annual Energy Outlook 2022: Extended and Sunset Tax Credit Cases

Learn about our assumptions

National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) documentation

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2022

Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency (updates in progress)

Analysis and Representation of Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) in NEMS

Modeling Distributed Generation in the Buildings Sectors

Contact our staff

RECS/CBECS: eiainfoconsumption&efficiency@eia.gov

AEO/NEMS: eiainfoconsumption&efficiencyoutlooks@eia.gov

Source: https://www.eia.gov/consumption/workshop/resources.php

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