U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

AEO2021 First Coal Working Group Meeting

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team

August 13, 2020 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AEO2021 First Coal Working Group Meeting Agenda

• AEO2021 schedule and incorporation of COVID-19 impacts

• What we’re working on for AEO2021

• Update on legislation and regulations affecting coal use

• Summary of AEO2020 projections and August STEO with emphasis on coal

• Meeting protocols

– This presentation and accompanying meeting minutes will be made available within the next few 

weeks to the EIA Working Group website

– Please mute yourself and enter questions using the WebEx chat feature–we will pause at points 

during the presentation to address them; select the raised-hand button if you want to speak

– The meeting will follow Chatham-house rules and will not be recorded

– Please send an email to David.Fritsch@eia.gov to confirm your attendance if your name in the list 

of participants is insufficient to establish your identity 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 2
Overview of Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021)

• What will be included in the AEO2021 release posted on the EIA website?

– Working group presentations and minutes

– Flip-book covering the Reference and core side cases

– Assumptions reports, including costs for new/existing electric plants and levelized costs

– No Issues in Focus papers planned at this time

– Model documentation not updated (two-year cycle)

• AEO2021 schedule

– Coal Market Module (CMM) model development: Jun-Sep 2020

– Second Working Group Session: Sep 2020

– Expected AEO release (event): Jan 2021

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 3

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
The new context: Global economic disruption under 

COVID-19 pandemic

• Short-term impacts of COVID-19 have been reflected in STEO forecasts

• Long-term impacts of COVID-19 are still under review

– These effects will be largely reflected in inputs from Macroeconomic/End Use models

• AEO2021 Macro/Industrial Working Group meeting: week of August 24

• EIA will host a series of workshops on the near- and long-term impacts on 

energy markets (detailed announcement forthcoming in the next few weeks)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 4

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
What we’re working on for AEO2021

• Improving run result diagnostic capabilities within CMM/AIMMS (complete)

• Implementing a new coal transportation rate escalation methodology

• Evaluating utility Integrated Resource Plans (IRP) and implications for coal 

retirements

• Updating historical coal input data in the CMM to base year 2019

• Endogenizing fuel cost assumptions in the seaborne coal trade formulation

• Assessing base year coal transportation rates and routes

• Modifying database feeds to the CMM to enable transition from AIMMS v. 4.37 (32-bit) 

to v.4.72 (64-bit) during AEO2022 development cycle

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 5

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Improving run result diagnostic capabilities within 

CMM/AIMMS (completed)

• New automatic cycle saves of the model results and outputs at the end of each cycle 

allows for review of any cycle of an integrated NEMS run

• A new section of code for creating display parameters was added that included lookup 

tables for regions, types, subsector names, and category descriptions

• 19 new report pages for display of the coal model results including four main groups:

– A: Coal Supply

– B: Coal Demand

– C: Coal Transport

– D: International Coal Trade

• New interface to run the model in stand-alone mode for testing, which replaces an old 

manual year loop procedure

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 6

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Implementing a new coal transportation rate escalation 

methodology

• EIA staff developed an approach for escalating coal transportation rates in light of 

declining coal production volumes shipped in the United States based on contractor 

recommendations* and staff analysis**

– Current East/West econometric approach to rate escalation would be replaced by a national 

share-weighted approach based on rail transportation cost components adjusted for 

productivity improvements in years with decreasing coal shipments

– The specification of base year coal transportation rates and Tier II rate adjustments will 

remain the same, while fuel costs would be incorporated as a weighted cost component 

rather than a fuel surcharge approach

• EIA staff is working to implement its approach to rate escalation in-house for AEO2021

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 7

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

*Hellerworx, Inc., “DOE/EIA Coal Market Module: Coal Transportation Rate Methodology Assessment,” September 29, 2017 (Unpublished)

**U.S. Energy Information Administration, Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, “Improving the Method for Coal Transportation Rate Escalation in 

the NEMS Coal Market Module,” August, 2020, EIA Website
What are the differences between the rate escalation methods?

• Current method

– Estimates separate coal transportation rate 

escalators for eastern and western coal shipments

– Applies to all modes of coal transport

– Uses econometric model to estimate the 

relationship between the projected inputs

• East modeled as a function of rail productivity, 

the User Cost of Capital, and diesel fuel 

prices

• West modeled as a function of rail 

productivity, investment, and the western 

share of U.S. coal shipments

• User Cost of Capital is based on the Producer 

Price Index (PPI) for railroad equipment, a 

proxy for interest rates based on the AA Utility 

Bond Rate and 3% risk premium, and the 

estimated annual depreciation (10%)

– Has separate accounting for fuel cost adjustments

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 8

• Proposed method

– Estimates single, national transportation rate 

escalation profile using rail as a proxy for other 

modes of transportation

– Applies to all modes of coal transport

– Uses a structural approach to weight key projected 

cost and productivity inputs

• Weight fuel, labor, equipment, and other cost 

components by the latest component weightings 

for the rail industry published by the American 

Association of Railroads (AAR)

• Adjust index each year based on change in 

related indexes projected within NEMS 

• Adjust component shares each year as the index 

components evolve over time 

• Add 50% of estimated average, annual STB 

productivity improvements (%) over the past 10 

years to the extent coal production in decline

– Eliminates separate fuel cost adjustments

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
What will the process look like going forward?

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 9

RCAF variable 2018 share* NEMS long-term projections escalator basis

Labor 33.0% Employment Cost Index–Total Private Compensation (2005=1.00)

Fuel 15.9% Indexed Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Price

Materials & supplies 5.1% Wholesale Price Index–Metals and Metal Products (1982=1.00)

Equipment rentals 5.3% Wholesale Price Index–Transportation Equipment (1982=1.00)

Depreciation 15.0% Wholesale Price Index–Fuel and Power (1982=1.00)

Interest 2.1% Indexed 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond Rate

Other 23.6% Wholesale Price Index–Industrial Commodities less Energy (1982=1.00)

• At the start of each NEMS cycle, EIA will calculate the real rate of change in selected indexes relative to 

the Gross Domestic Product Deflator, apply the base year shares to project the first projection year’s 

escalation rate, and use the share-weighted values for that year to generate shares for application in the 

next projection year, and so on

• Productivity adjustment would still be necessary based in part on analyst judgment

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

*Source: American Association of Railroads, Second Quarther 2020 All-Inclusive Index, Ex Parte No. 290 (Sub-No. 5) (2020-2), Quarterly Rail 

Cost Adjustment Factor, Surface Transportation Board, March 5, 2020. 
How do the approaches compare 

to one another?

• Table compares the rate escalation 

methodologies by AEO2019 Side Case 

and year from the base year (2017) used 

in the evaluation

• EIA Alternative Approach produces results 

in line with NEMS indexes and fuel prices

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

Note: The EIA Current Methodology results assume 1000-mile rail hauls with base 

values of $26.31 per ton (East) and $20.62 per ton (West) weighted by the share of 

western coal production in total U.S. production each year to account for the impact 

of the regional fuel surcharges. The Contractor-Recommended Methodology reflects 

the constant factor weighting option with only the 0.7% annual rail productivity 

improvement included. The EIA Alternative Approach includes the annual rail 

productivity improvement adjusted for coal production trends.

10

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Addressing voluntary commitments to de-carbonization 

and implications for coal retirements

• No change in EIA precedent: “current laws and regulations” will remain the basis for 

input assumptions to Reference Case

• Common question in preceding working groups: how does EIA account for utility 

plans/commitments to de-carbonize?

– EIA has seen Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs) as more aspirational and thus not appropriate to model

– Increasing number and specificity of de-carbonization announcements may indicate a move toward 

implementation 

• Considering different approaches to if/how to incorporate IRP statements into 

modeling

• Completed supplemental research on announced coal retirements during the past 

year to supplement IRP reviews and help identify additional coal retirements to include 

in the Reference case

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 11

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Wave of coal retirements is expected to continue based on 

review of already planned or announced retirements

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

Source for actual and planned retirements: Survey Form EIA 860-M data as of May 2020 and analyst research on specific announcements. 

Announced retirements are based on analyst research and have not been classified as a planned retirement for inclusion in the AEO2021 

Reference case.

12

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Coal plants retirements

gigawatts (GW) of net summer capacity

retired

planned 

announced

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2030 2040 2050

Cumulative coal plant retirements

gigawatts (GW) of net summer capacity
More than 100 coal-fired plants have been replaced or 

converted to natural gas since 2011

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy, “More than 100 coal-fired plants have been replaced or converted to natural 

gas since 2011”, Principal Contributor: Lindsay Aramayo, August 5, 2020.

13

• From 2011 to 2019, 121 U.S. coal-fired power plants were repurposed to burn other types of fuels, 103 of which 

were converted to or replaced by natural gas-fired plants

• Among the natural gas-fired conversions, 14.3 GW had the boiler converted to burn natural gas, and 15.3 GW 

was replaced with natural gas combined cycle

• Motives behind these transitions include: stricter emissions standards, low natural gas prices, and more efficient 

new natural gas turbine technology. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Update on other coal-related development and 

communication efforts

• Developing an International Coal Market Module (ICMM) in WEPS+

– Developing a linear programming-based approach using EIA’s Global Hydrocarbon Supply 

Model (GHySMo) platform in AIMMS and Python

– Taking advantage of efforts to improve the modeling of international coal supply curves 

(ICSC) and seaborne coal shipping costs during ICMM development

– Anticipating application in the 2021 International Energy Outlook (IEO2021) cycle

– Updating of ICSC in the CMM dependent on outcomes of ICMM development

• Bi-annual Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) coal forecasting working groups on hold 

as COVID-19 market effects play out; anticipate resuming in 2021 Q1

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 14

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
The Electricity Markets Module (EMM) is moving toward 

dynamic regional redefinition capability

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 15

• New for AEO2021- regional inputs 

read from SQLite database 

generated by new Python tool

– First step in being able to more easily 

change region definitions for specific 

analyses

• AEO2021 will remain at the same 

region configuration as AEO2020

– Which alternative regional configurations 

should be considered as regional 

redefinition capability is developed?

Retain AEO2020 region mapping in AEO2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Legislation and regulations update

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 16

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
EPA CO2 regulations included in AEO

• Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule

– In the NEMS Electricity Markets Module (EMM), existing coal units need to either upgrade to an HRI option 

identified in EIA’s CPP study or retire by 2025; this approach relies on the 2015 EIA study of heat rate 

improvement (HRI) potential and costs for existing coal units

– Revises EPA’s BSER (“best system of emission reduction”) finding for GHG emissions from existing power 

plants to include only heat-rate efficiency improvements and gives states a list of “candidate technologies” 

that can be used to establish performance standards for use in state plans, rather than setting specific 

technology-based standards

• New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) limit CO2 emissions from new plants

– The EPA released proposed revisions that would eliminate the Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) 

requirement and specify CO2 emission rates of 2,000 lb CO2/MWh-gross for large units (super-critical), 

1,900 lb for small units (sub-critical), and 2,200 lb for new coal refuse-fired units; and it would change 

applicability of rules to modified units

• A 3% adder is applied to the cost of capital for new coal across all AEO cases

– Includes units or upgrades to existing units without maximum sequestration options (90% removal) to 

account for risk of future tightening of CO2 emissions standards and other policies affecting coal use

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 17

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Other EPA air quality regulations affecting electricity generation

• The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) are included in all AEO cases

– On July 17, 2020, EPA finalized a revision to the 2012 MATS rule based on its determination that it is not “appropriate 

and necessary” to regulate HAP emissions from power plants under Section 112 of the Clean Air Act.

– EPA also determined that “emissions of HAP have been reduced such that residual risk is at acceptable levels, that there 

are no developments in HAP emissions controls to achieve further cost-effective reductions beyond the current 

standards, and, therefore, no changes to the MATS rule are warranted.” (quoted from EPA website; emphasis added).

• EPA’s Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) is included in all AEO cases

• Regional Haze compliance is reflected in survey Form EIA-860 filings as each coal 

plant takes action to comply

– Compliance follows from State Implementation Plans due on July 31, 2021 with implementation by 2028; Regional Haze 

Reform Roadmap dated September 11, 2018 

– On June 30, 2020, EPA reaffirmed a 2017 determination that participation in CSAPR qualifies as a BART alternative to 

satisfy Regional Haze requirements (for example, Texas)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 18

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
EPA’s Coal Combustion Residual regulations 

• EPA issued a final rule on July 29, 2020 to update 2015 Coal Combustion Residual 

(CCR) regulations in response to a August 2018 court ruling that certain provisions were 

insufficiently protective of public health

– The July 29 rule defines clay-lined impoundments as “unlined” and shifts the deadline for unlined facilities to 

April 11, 2021, but contains a “site-specific alternative” that allows eligible unlined impoundments to continue 

receiving coal ash until October 15, 2024 if the operator can demonstrate a lack of capacity

– The July 29 rule also allows impoundments larger than 40 acres to delay initiating closure until October 17, 

2028; a separate proposal issued in February would allow for up to five two-year extensions beyond that date if 

finalized

– Legacy impoundment rule to address court decision findings is in advanced notice of proposed rulemaking with 

a target of July 2021 for a proposed rule

• Modeling CCR regulations is difficult because the potential cost implications vary 

considerably by individual electric generating unit and are incorporated into the AEO on 

as-revealed basis by reporting on survey Form EIA-860

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 19

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Other EPA regulations affecting coal generating units

• EPA’s Effluent Limitation Guidelines compliance is reflected in survey Form EIA-860 

filings as each coal plant takes action to comply 

– EPA’s Proposed Rule published November 22, 2019 to extend compliance deadlines for up to two years, 

expand technology options for achieving compliance, provide flexibility in managing ELG systems under a 

voluntary incentives program that allows facilities until 2028 to implement new limits if they adopt additional 

measures to achieve stricter limitations on specific pollutants, and imposing less-stringent requirements for 

high-flow facilities, low-utilization units, and facilities retiring by 2028

– EPA’s economic analysis of the 2015 final rule projected minimal coal retirements; the projected reduction of 

$175 million in annual pre-tax costs under the current proposed rule would further limit the impact

• EPA issued the Navigable Water Protection Rule on January 23, 2020 after repealing 

the Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rule in September 2019

– Agencies would no longer oversee permits involving ephemeral features such as streams and pools that 

form because of rain or melting snow and applies a typical year standard

– Excludes waste treatment systems from review, including coal ash ponds, as well as groundwater, storm 

water run-off and control systems, artificial lakes and ponds, and other agricultural lands

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 20

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Other federal legislation affecting coal

• Coal excise tax rates for the Black Lung Disability Trust Fund increased as of January 1, 

2020 to $1.10 per ton for underground, and to $0.55 for surface-mined coal, or 4.4% of 

the sales price, whichever is lower (not applicable to lignite coal and coal intended for 

export); set to expire December 31, 2020 and would reduce back to $0.55 and $0.25 per 

ton, or 2% of the sales price, whichever is lower thereafter

• Section 45Q tax credit for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is included in the AEO, 

which may have indirect implications for coal under certain market conditions

– Per the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018, rates of $50 per metric ton of CO2 for secure geologic 

storage, and $35 per metric ton of CO2 for Enhanced Oil or Gas Recovery (EOR/EGR) or 

utilization projects initiated before January 1, 2024 and for the first 12 years of operation

– The modeling of CCS and 45Q occurs in the Electricity Market Module (EMM); Capture, 

Transport, Utilization and Storage Module (CTUS); and the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM) 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 21

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
State actions to control greenhouse gas emissions

• Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative expanding to include Virginia in AEO2021 

– Virginia Clean Economy Act (Senate Bill 851/House Bill 1526)

• 2021: CO2 allowance of 27.16/metric ton (mt)

• Allocation decreases each year through 2030 by 0.84/mt CO2, and remains at 19.6/mt CO2 thereafter

– Dominion Energy and Appalachian Power required to retire carbon-emitting electric generating units by Dec. 31, 2045

• Existing California regulations are included in AEO

– AB 398 Global Warming Solutions Act requires statewide greenhouse gas emissions to return to the 1990 level by 

2020 and be 40% below the 1990 level by 2030; the cap-and-trade program is covered under AB 32

– SB-1368 prohibits California utilities from entering into long-term financial commitments for base load generation, 

unless in compliance with CO2 emissions performance standard of 1,100 lbs/MWh

– SB-100 clean energy standard calls for a 60% renewable generation requirement by 2030, as required under previous 

legislation, and for carbon-free electric generation by 2045

• Viability of existing Zero Emission Credit (ZEC) programs may be in question

– Monitoring what, if any, consequences may occur in light of recently announced investigations in OH and IL

– Federal response: FERC Minimum Offer Price Rule (MOPR), which would also affect subsidized renewables

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 22

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Changes to state RPS policies will be finalized toward the end of the AEO cycle 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 23

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Issues affecting western U.S. coal producers

• Oregon passed S.B. 1547 in 2016 that requires utilities to exit out-of-state coal 

contracts by 2030

– Potential implications for coal holdings by PacifiCorp, including Jim Bridger (WY; 2/3 owner), Hunter, 

Huntington, Dave Johnston, Naughton, Wyodak, Craig (partial owner), Colstrip (partial owner), and Hayden 

(partial owner)

– Wyoming passed Senate File 159 requiring utilities to make a good faith attempt to sell coal plants 

purchased under an agreement approved by the state’s commission, and ratepayers in Wyoming would 

assume the costs of buying the coal plant in operation

• U.S. Pacific-Northwest coal terminal development stalled/challenged at this time

– Lawsuit is ongoing by the proposed, 44-MMtpy Millennium terminal’s stakeholders to challenge Washington 

state’s 2017 denial of the Clean Water Act Section 401 certification

– Army Corps revived its environmental review of the project in October 2018, although it cannot issue a 

permit for the project unless the Washington state’s certification denial is reversed or set aside

– State board’s shoreline construction permits denial decision affirmed by state appeals court in March 2020

– Other federal lawsuits pending by Millennium project sponsors

– Ridley expansion could free up some capacity at Westshore for U.S. exports through Canada

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 24

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
AEO2020 assumptions and trends

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 25

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
What is the Reference case? • The Reference case projection assumes trend improvement in known technologies along with a 

view of economic and demographic trends reflecting the current views of leading economic 

forecasters and demographers.

• The Reference case generally assumes that current laws and regulations affecting the energy 

sector, including sunset dates for laws that have them, are unchanged throughout the projection 

period.

• The potential impacts of proposed legislation, regulations, and standards are not included.

• EIA addresses the uncertainty inherent in energy projections by developing side sensitivity cases 

with different assumptions of macroeconomic growth, world oil prices, technological progress, and 

energy policies.

• Projections in the AEO should be interpreted with a clear understanding of the assumptions that 

inform them and the limitations inherent in any modeling effort.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 26

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
AEO2020 sensitivity cases examine impacts of alternative 

market assumptions

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 27

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Selected sensitivity cases Description

Reference Assumes trend improvement in known technologies and expects current economic 

and demographic trends to continue

High Oil and Natural Gas Supply 

(HOGS)

Applies lower oil and natural gas extraction costs and higher resource availability 

than in the Reference case, which allows for higher levels of oil and natural gas 

production at lower delivered prices

Low Oil and Natural Gas Supply 

(LOGS)

Applies higher oil and natural gas extraction costs and lower resource availability 

than in the Reference case, which results in lower levels of oil and natural gas 

production at higher delivered prices

High Renewables Cost

The overnight capital cost is held constant at the 2019 level throughout the 

projection period for all renewable technologies, including conventional 

hydropower, in the electric power sector and for small wind and solar technologies 

in the end-use sectors.

Low Renewables Cost

Overnight capital costs, operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, and fuel prices, 

where applicable, are assumed to decline more rapidly than in the Reference 

case, reaching levels 40% lower than their Reference case equivalents by 2050 

for all renewable generation technologies, including in end-use applications
Coal productivities projected to continue 

declining, except in the Eastern Interior

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020.

28

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

 7.0

1996 2002 2008 2014 2020 2026 2032 2038 2044 2050

short tons per miner hour

Eastern Interior

Northern Appalachia

Central Appalachia

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

 20.0

 25.0

 30.0

 35.0

 40.0

 45.0

 50.0

1996 2002 2008 2014 2020 2026 2032 2038 2044 2050

[annual growth 2019-2050]

Short tons per miner hour

Powder River Basin

Gulf Lignite

Rocky Mountain

Dakota Lignite

2019 

history projections

2019 

history projections

0.7%

-2.6%

-2.8%

Major eastern producing regions Major western producing regions

-0.8%

-0.8%

-0.8%

-2.1%

[annual growth 2019-2050]

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Coal exports

billion short tons 

Rest of world

United States

Other non-OECD 

America

Eurasia

Africa

Other non-OECD 

Asia

Australia and New 

Zealand

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Coal imports 

billion short tons

Rest of world

India

Other non- OECD Asia

China

South Korea

Japan

OECD Europe

International seaborne coal trade projected to increase 56% 

(400 million short tons) in AEO2020 (2020–2050)

29

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020
Relatively high levelized cost of electricity for coal prohibits the addition of 

coal in any case evaluated in AEO2020

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation Resources in the AEO2020”, February 2020, excerpted from 

Table 1b (2025) and Table B1b (2040)

30

0 2 4 6 8 10

Combined Cycle

Wind, Onshore

Solar PV

Adv. Nuclear...

Coal USC

Combined Cycle

Wind, Onshore

Solar PV

Adv. Nuclear...

Coal USC

2040

New power plant costs

2018 cents per kilowatt-hour

Incremental

transmission

costs

Fixed

costs

Variable costs,

2025 Capital costs including fuel

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

199020192050199020192050199020192050199020192050

Electricity use by end-use sector (AEO2020 Reference case) 

billion kilowatthours

direct use

electricity 

sales

residential industrial

commercial transportation

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

AEO2020 Electricity use growth rate 

percentage growth (three-year rolling average)

2019

history projections

High 

Economic 

Growth

Reference

Low 

Economic 

Growth

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 31

After decades of slowing growth, electricity consumption is 

expected to grow gradually through 2050 across all sectors

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2010202020352050202020352050202020352050202020352050202020352050

Renewables electricity generation (all sectors) by case

billion kilowatthours

solar

wind 

other

history projections

Reference Low

Economic

Growth

High

Economic

Growth

Low Oil and

Gas Supply

High Oil and

Gas Supply

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

Increasing cost competitiveness of renewables leads to growth in generation 

even with projection for low electricity demand and low natural gas prices

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020.

32

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Average delivered coal and natural gas prices to the electric power 

sector indicate limited competitive opportunity for coal

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 33

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Low Oil and Gas Supply

Reference

High Oil and Gas Supply

Average delivered fuel prices to the electric power sector

2019 dollars per million British thermal units

natural gas

coal

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020. 

2019 

history projections

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
AEO2020 results with emphasis on coal

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 34

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal-fired generating capacity decreases through 2025 in all AEO 

side cases and is sensitive to the projection for natural gas prices

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 35

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Low Oil and Gas Supply

Reference

High Oil and Gas Supply

Electric generating capacity Average delivered natural gas prices to the electric power sector

gigawatts (GW) 2019 dollars per million British thermal units

natural gas prices

coal-fired capacity

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020. 

2019 

history projections

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

234 GW

125 GW

153 GW

94 GW

141 GW

164 GW

113 GW
Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

Net summer coal-fired generating capacity in the electric power sector declines 

disproportionately by region in the AEO2020 Reference case

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020. 

36

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

ERCOT

FRCC

MISO

NPCC

PJM

SERC

SPP

WECC

2019

2050

retirements

U.S. Total 

2019: 234 GW

AEO2020 2050: 125 GW

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

gigawatts (GW) 
-24 -11 -56

-102 -78

-122 -44 -57

-43

-300

-200

-100

0

Economics and policy drive changes to electric generation capacity

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020.

37

430

293

520

27

109

22 99 197

88

382

545

293

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Low Oil and 

Gas Supply

Cumulative generating capacity 

additions and retirements (2020-50)

gigawatts

Reference High Oil and

Gas Supply

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Annual electricity generating capacity additions and retirements (Reference case) 

gigawatts

2019

history projections

solar

wind

oil and gas

nuclear

other

coal

additions

retirements
Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, Washington, D.C., 

August 13, 2020 38

Comparison of generating capacity across the Reference and 

High/Low Oil and Gas Supply cases

• In the High Oil and Gas Supply case, coal-fired capacity declines by an additional 31 GW to 96 GW as low-cost natural gas increases 102 

GW through 2050 compared with the Reference case. Nuclear declines by an additional 32 GW and renewables by 101 GW.

• In the Low Oil and Gas Supply case, coal-fired capacity declines 28 GW less to 155 GW through 2050, compared with a surge of 264 GW 

of additional renewables compared to the Reference case. Nuclear capacity declines by an additional 13 GW less.

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

High Oil and Gas Supply

renewables & other

oil & natural gas

coal

nuclear

generation capacity (GW)

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Low Oil and Gas Supply

renewables & other

oil & natural gas

coal

nuclear

generation capacity (GW)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020.

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Reference

renewables & other

oil & natural gas

coal

nuclear

generation capacity (GW)

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Although coal capacity declines, capacity factors for remaining coal 

units recover as much as natural gas prices allow

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 39

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350 2019

history projections

Low Oil and 

Gas Supply

Reference

High Oil and Gas 

Supply

 y g

gigawatts 

billion kilowatthours

Coal 

capacit

y

Coal 

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2019

history projections

Low Oil and Gas Supply

Reference

High Oil and Gas Supply

Electric generating capacity Total electricity generation

gigawatts billion kilowatthours

Coal-fired generation

Coal-fired capacity

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Capacity factor—coal-fired generation

percent

2019

history projections

Low Oil and Gas Supply

Reference

High Oil and Gas Supply
0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2019

history projections

Electricity generation from selected fuels

billion kilowatthours

natural gas

coal

nuclear

renewables

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2019

history projections

Electricity generation from selected fuels 

billion kilowatthours

natural gas

renewables

nuclear

coal

36%

38%

12%

13%

19%

19%

37%

24%

Electricity generation from natural gas and renewables increases steadily with coal 

and nuclear projected to remain relatively flat in the AEO2020 Reference case 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020.

40

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
The projected mix of electricity generation varies widely across cases

because differences in natural gas prices result in significant substitution

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020.

41 Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2015 2050

2019

projections

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2015 2050

2019

projections

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990 2010 2030 2050

2019

history projections

Electricity generation from 

selected fuels

billion kilowatthours

natural gas

coal

nuclear

renewables

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2030 2050

Natural gas price at Henry Hub

2019 dollars per million British thermal 

2019

history projections Low Oil 

and Gas 

Supply

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Supply

Reference

Low Oil and 

Gas Supply

High Oil and 

Gas Supply

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Changes in cost assumptions for new wind and solar projects result in 

significantly different projected fuel mixes for electricity generation 

42 Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020. 

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990 2010 2030 2050

2019

history projections

AEO2020 electricity generation from selected fuels

billion kilowatthours

natural gas

coal

nuclear

renewables

Reference case

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2015 2050

2019

projections

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2015 2050

2019

projections

Low Renewables Cost case High Renewables Cost case
Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

Electricity sector consumption drives total U.S. coal disposition 

with stable industrial and slowly increasing export demand

43

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

electric power sector 

consumption

net exports

other consumption

High Oil and Gas 

Supply

Low Oil and Gas 

AEO2020 Supply

Reference case

U.S. coal consumption and net exports 

million short tons

2019

history projection

• Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal production decreases through 2025 as a result of retiring coal-fired electric 

generating capacity, but federal rule compliance and higher natural gas prices lead to coal 

production leveling off

44 Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2050

AEO2020 coal production by region

million short tons

2019

history projections

total

West

Interior

Appalachia

Reference case

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2015 2050

2019

projections

Low Oil and Gas Supply case

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2015 2050

2019

projections

High Oil and Gas Supply case
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Northern Appalachia

Central Appalachia

Southern Appalachia

Total Appalachia

Appalachian coal production shows big declines through 2020, with 

eastern coal exports providing some support through 2050

million short tons

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020.

, 

2019

history projections

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 45

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Reference case
Interior coal production has declined in recent years but Illinois Basin coal mines are 

still productive while lignite regions show continued to decline with plant closures

million short tons

Total Interior

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Eastern Interior

Gulf Lignite

2019

history projections

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020.

.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 46

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Reference case
Western coal production has seen the greatest rate of decline since 2009

million short tons

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Other West

2019

history projections

Wyoming PRB

Total West

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 47

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020.

Reference case
Coal mine employment trends reflect impact of declining 

labor productivity against backdrop of declining production

48 Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Thousands

Coal mine employment

number of miners

2019

history projections total

Appalachia

West

Interior

AEO 2020 Reference case

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Thousands

Coal mine employment

number of miners

2019

history projections

total

Underground

Mines

Surface

Mines

AEO 2020 Reference case

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020.
Average U.S. minemouth coal prices remain relatively stable in 

light of declining production volumes

2019 dollars per short ton

Appalachia

Interior

West

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

AEO2020

U.S. Average

2019

History Projections

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 49

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2020.
U.S. coal exports driven by strong demand for coking coal for steel production

million short tons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

coking

steam

history projections

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 50

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Projections – U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual 

Energy Outlook 2020; History –. Quarterly Coal Report.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Comparison of August 2020 STEO forecasts and AEO2020 

projections for selected coal indicators

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020

Sources: U.S. Energy Information, Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 11, 2020; Annual Energy Outlook 2020.

51

Indicator (million short tons) 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021

Total production 705.3 502.2 564.1 680.5 599.4 567.0

Appalachia 193.0 133.0 136.4 180.5 146.0 155.1

Interior 130.7 88.1 100.6 123.0 125.8 128.5

West 381.7 281.1 327.1 377.1 327.6 283.4

Exports 92.9 59.8 63.0 92.1 81.1 85.3

Metallurgical 55.1 37.9 42.4 51.2 44.8 50.7

Steam 37.7 21.9 20.6 40.8 36.4 34.6

Total consumption 587.3 435.4 520.4 592.1 532.8 493.0

Electric power sector 539.4 391.3 475.0 542.0 485.3 447.0

Coke plants 17.9 16.6 17.0 20.8 20.8 20.8

Other industry and retail 30.0 27.5 28.3 29.3 26.7 25.2

Natural gas at Henry Hub ($/MMBtu) $2.57 $2.03 $3.14 $2.57 $2.49 $2.62

August 2020 STEO AEO2020

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
For more information

Greg Adams, Team Lead, Coal and Uranium Analysis | Greg.Adams@eia.gov | (202) 586-7343

David Fritsch, AEO Coal Models and Projections | David.Fritsch@eia.gov | (202) 587-6538

Bonnie West, STEO and IEO Coal Models and Projections | Bonnie.West@eia.gov | (202) 586-2415 

Kien Chau, IEO Coal Models and Projections | Kien.Chau@eia.gov | (202) 586-4280

Lindsay Aramayo, AEO and STEO Coal Models | Lindsay.Aramayo@eia.gov | (202) 586-7277

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state

Coal Data Browser | www.eia.gov/coal/data/browser

U.S. Energy Mapping System | www.eia.gov/state/maps.php?v=Coal

International Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/beta/international/?src=home-b1

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team, 

Washington, D.C., August 13, 2020 52

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.