U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Buildings Working Group Meeting

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

February 18, 2016 | Washington, DC

By

Buildings Energy Analysis Team

AEO2016 Preliminary Results
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

Overview

• Key policies

– Clean Power Plan

– Federal standards and ENERGY STAR specifications

• Sector drivers

– Fuel prices

– Weather

– Commercial floorspace

• Distributed generation

• Residential and commercial consumption

AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016 2
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

Clean Power Plan

• EIA issued analysis of proposed Clean Power Plan (CPP) in 2015; CPP was finalized 

by EPA and is currently under judicial review. The Supreme Court has issued a stay 

on CPP implementation that will remain in effect until the DC Circuit rules on the 

matter and the Supreme Court itself decides whether or not to hear a possible appeal 

to the circuit court ruling.

• AEO2016 cases that include the effects of the CPP will affect the buildings sector 

mainly via rebates to major end-use equipment, which are used to represent energy 

efficiency’s role as a CPP compliance option.

• AEO2016 will also prominently discuss modeling results that do not include the CPP.

• AEO2016 will also include an Issues in Focus discussion of the CPP.

AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016 3
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

Federal standards and ENERGY STAR specifications

• Equipment standards

– Residential boilers (effective 2021)

– commercial packaged air conditioners and heat pumps (effective 2018 and 2023)

– commercial warm-air furnaces (effective 2023)

– commercial pumps (e.g., municipal water services) (effective 2020)

– general service fluorescent lamps (effective 2018)

– commercial ice makers (effective 2018)

– commercial beverage vending machines (effective 2019)

– commercial oil-fired water heaters (effective 2016)

– commercial pre-rinse spray valves (effective 2019) didn’t make it in

• ENERGY STAR specifications

– televisions/ displays, set-top boxes, computer monitors, and dehumidifiers

AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016 4
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

residential fuel prices (2014 $/MMBtu) commercial fuel prices (2014 $/MMBtu)

AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016

Even with inclusion of the Clean Power Plan, end-use fuel prices are 

lower in AEO2016 than AEO2015

Source: ref2016.0216a, ref2015.0219a, rf15_111_all.0306a

5

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Natural gas

Electricity AEO2016

AEO2015

AEO2015-CPP

AEO2016

AEO2015 AEO2015-CPP

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015

AEO2015-CPP

AEO2016

AEO2015 AEO2015-CPP
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

AEO2016 uses NOAA data from 1986 through 2015 to project 

heating and cooling degree days for the 2017-40 period

Source: ref2016.0216a, ref2015.0219a

6 AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Heating

AEO2016

AEO2015

AEO2016

AEO2015

Cooling
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

education floorspace (billion square feet) large office floorspace (billion square feet)

AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016

Though trends for individual building types may have changed, total 

commercial floorspace grows 1.1% per year from 2014 to 2040

Source: ref2016.0216a, ref2015.0219a

7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

distributed solar PV capacity, gigawatts

Extension of investment tax credits, combined with decreasing solar 

photovoltaic costs, leads to greater adoption of PV in buildings 

Source: ref2016.0216a, ref2015.0219a, rf15_111_all.0306a

8 AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015

AEO2015-CPP
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

delivered electricity consumption (quadrillion Btu) delivered natural gas consumption (quadrillion Btu)

AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016

Residential electricity consumption lower while natural gas 

consumption is higher than AEO2015

Source: ref2016.0216a, ref2015.0219a, rf15_111_all.0306a

9

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015

AEO2015-CPP

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015

AEO2015-CPP
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

delivered electricity consumption (quadrillion Btu) delivered natural gas consumption (quadrillion Btu)

AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016

Commercial electricity consumption generally lower while natural gas 

consumption is higher than AEO2015

Source: ref2016.0216a, ref2015.0219a, rf15_111_all.0306a

10

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015 AEO2015-CPP

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015

AEO2015-CPP
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

For more buildings information

Kevin Jarzomski | phone: 202-586-3208

| email: kevin.jarzomski@eia.gov

David Peterson | phone: 202-586-5084

| email: david.peterson@eia.gov

Behjat Hojjati | phone: 202-586-1068

| email: behjat.hojjati@eia.gov

Carol Brotman White | phone: 202-586-7924

| email: carol.white@eia.gov

Kimberly Klaiman | phone: 202-586-1678

| email: kimberly.klaiman@eia.gov

Erin Boedecker | phone: 202-586-4791

Team Lead | email: erin.boedecker@eia.gov

AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016 11
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

For more EIA information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) |

http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/

Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) | 

http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016 12
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

Bonus slides

13 AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

residential delivered energy (quadrillion Btu) commercial delivered energy (quadrillion Btu)

AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016

Total delivered energy consumption in both residential and commercial 

sectors

Source: ref2016.0216a, ref2015.0219a, rf15_111_all.0306a

14

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015

AEO2015-CPP

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015

AEO2015-CPP
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

residential distillate consumption (quadrillion Btu) commercial distillate consumption (quadrillion Btu)

AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016

Distillate fuel oil consumption

Source: ref2016.0216a, ref2015.0219a

15

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015
Discussion purposes only –

do not cite or circulate

residential installed cost ($/kWdc) commercial installed cost ($/kWdc)

AEO2016 Buildings Working Group, Washington, DC, February 18, 2016

AEO2016 residential and commercial installed solar PV cost 

projections lower than AEO2015

Source: ref2016.0216a, ref2015.0219a

16

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016

AEO2015