U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2022

For

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group

May 27, 2021 | Washington, DC

By

Caroline Campbell, Michael Dwyer, and John Maples (lead)

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling

Planned modeling and data updates in the transportation sector
AEO2022 and COVID-19

• AEO2022 reflects updated macroeconomic projections from IHS Markit 

(including vehicle sales)

• The forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) reflect the nearterm impacts of the pandemic and subsequent mitigation efforts.

• We released an Annual Energy Outlook Trends and Expectations report that 

discusses some of the early impacts of COVID-19 on different energy 

sectors: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/trends_expectations.php

AEO2022 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, May 27, 2021 2

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Outline

• Recap of Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) Reference case

• Planned data and modeling updates for the AEO2022 Transportation Sector 

Demand Model

– Light-duty vehicles (LDV)

– Heavy-duty vehicles (HDV)

– Air

– Other

• Discussion

3

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2020

history projections

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2020

history projections

motor gasoline

distillate fuel oil

jet fuel

electricity

other

Transportation sector consumption by mode 

AEO2021 Reference case

quadrillion British thermal units

Transportation sector energy consumption remains lower than its 2019 

level for entire projection period as a result of decreased travel in 2020

4

light-duty

vehicles

medium- and 

heavy-duty 

vehicles

air

commercial

light trucks

rail

marine

other

Transportation sector consumption by fuel

AEO2021 Reference case

quadrillion British thermal units

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Passenger and freight travel by mode

5

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2030 2050

2020

projections

Rail and domestic shipping 

AEO2021 Reference case

trillion ton-miles traveled

freight rail

domestic marine

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2030 2050

Passenger travel 

AEO2021 Reference case

trillion revenue passenger-miles

bus

passenger rail

air

2020

projections

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2030 2050

2020

projections

Vehicle travel

AEO2021 Reference case

trillion vehicle-miles

light-duty vehicles

heavy-duty trucks
Light-duty vehicle sales by technology or fuel type

6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2020

history projections

other

electric hybrid 

plug-in electric

hybrid

battery electric

diesel

flex fuel

gasoline

Light-duty vehicle sales by technology or fuel

AEO2021 Reference case

millions of vehicles

0

1

2

3

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

New vehicle sales of battery-powered vehicles

AEO2021 Reference case

millions of vehicles

total battery electric

including 100-, 200-, 300-mile

electric vehicles

electric hybrid 

300-mile electric 

200-mile electric

plug-in electric hybrid 

100-mile electric

2020

history projections

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Light-duty vehicle

7

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Light-duty vehicle updates

• Update stock data update to 2019 from 2018

– Data based on vehicle registrations by region, vintage, and fuel type, including car and light 

truck split based on vehicle data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

• Integrate new battery model

– Battery size relationship to pack size and vehicle weight will be dynamic

• Revise regional LDV sales and stocks distribution

• Consider pending policy changes

– Evaluate zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate

– Evaluate state internal combustion engine (ICE) bans

– Update electric vehicle (EV) tax credit assumptions

8

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Heavy-duty vehicle

9

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Heavy-duty modeling updates

• Update stock data to 2019 from 2018

– Update based on vehicle registrations by region, vintage, fleet type, and fuel type

• Update regional travel to 2019 values, including total travel, vehicle-miles 

traveled (VMT) by industrial sector, and stock fuel economy

• Integrate a new EV powertrain and battery model by vehicle size class and 

duty cycle

10

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Public transit

11

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Public transit modeling updates

• Update travel demands, fuel use, and efficiency data to 2020 from 2019

– Transit, intercity, and school buses

– Transit, commuter, and intercity rail

– Potential COVID-19 impacts

• Re-estimate coefficients for travel demand (PMT) equations

• Update transit bus fuel choice to account for projected growth of electricand natural gas-powered buses

12

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Air

13

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Air modeling updates

• Update last historical year to 2020

– Aircraft fleet stocks (all regions): average of quarterly stock data to more accurately account 

for the average stock throughout the year (active versus parked, by region and body type)

– Aircraft operations (U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics): revenue passenger miles, 

freight revenue ton miles, load factors, efficiencies

• Update assumptions defining the return to pre-COVID averages based on 

the International Air Transport Association, International Civil Aviation 

Organization, Airlines For America, and others

• Re-estimate recreational aircraft and aviation gasoline projections

• Re-estimate ticket yield projection

14

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Other data updates

15

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Other data updates

• Update freight rail and domestic marine shipping efficiencies and ton-miles 

by region and industrial sector 

16

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Discussion

17

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Contact information

Caroline Campbell | phone: 202-586-0259

| email: caroline.campbell@eia.gov

Michael Dwyer | phone: 202-586-8406

| email: michael.dwyer@eia.gov

John Maples (lead) | phone: 202-586-1757 

| email: john.maples@eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo

18

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.