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APPEN DIX 10A. U SER INSTRUC TIONS FOR SHIPMEN TS AND NIA SPREADSH

EET MODEL

TABLE OF CO NTENTS 10A.1 USER INSTRUCTION S

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APPEN DIX 10A. U SER INSTRUC TIONS FOR SHIPMEN TS AND NIA SPREADSH

EET MODEL

10A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS The results obtained in the shipments and national impact analy sis (NIA) analy ses can be examined a

nd repro duced us ing the M icrosof t Excel spr

eadshee t availab le on the U .S. Department of Ene

rgy (DOE)’ s website

at: http://www.eere.energy .gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/dist_transforme rs.html. The spre adsheet

is called “NI A_DT_NO PR.xls” and it enables the user to perform a national impact analysis of distribution transforme r standards for both the liquid-immersed and dry-ty pe equipment classes. This spreadsheet also enables the user to analyze the policy

options considered in the regulatory impact analysis. To run the spr eadsheet, the user needs to have Microsoft Excel 2000 or a later version. The NI A sprea dsheet pe rforms c alculati ons to for ecast th e chang es in national ener gy use (NES) and net present value (NPV) due to an ene rgy-efficiency

standard. The energy

use and associated costs for a given standard a re determined first by

calculating the shipments and then calculating the energy

use and costs for a product class. The differ ences between the standards and base cases ( absent a

national standar d) can then be co mpared a nd the NES a

nd NPV determined. The N

IA spreadshe et, or workbook, c onsists of t he follow ing wor ksheets:

Introduction This worksheet provides an outline of the contents of the entire national impact spreadsheet and describes the func tion of individual worksheets.
Model Flowchart This worksheet presents a flowchart of the shipments and the NES/NPV mod

ules. CSL Definiti ons and DL-P C Mapping This worksheet defines efficiency levels for candidate standard levels (C SLs) by de sign line s and prov ides desi gn-line s-to-pro ductclass es map ping. Ship-NES-NP

V Output This worksheet presents the consolidated outputs produced for

each product class when the user clicks the button “A ll Classes Summary”on the “Na

tional Impact Summary

” worksheet. Total savings and NPV for the forecast per iod are summarized in tables for each standard level.10A -2

National Impact Summary This work sheet contains use r input se lections a

nd a summa

ry table containing cumulative shipments, cumulative energy savings, and NPV for e ach tria

l standar d level ( TSL). The worksheet al so graphically

summarizes the energy

and economic savings resulting from stan dards. RIA Output This worksheet presents the consolidated outputs produced for each product class when the user clicks the button “A ll Classes RIA Summary

”on the “Regulatory

Impact Analy

sis” worksheet. Total sav ings and NPV for th

e forec ast perio d are sum

marized in tables for each standard level. Regulato ry Impa ct Analys is This work sheet contains use r input se lections a

nd a summa

ry table containing cumulative shipments, cumulative energy savings, and NPV for e ach non- regula tory policy option. Th e worksh eet also graphically

summarizes the energy

and economic savings resulting from stan dards. Energy Impacts from TSLs - Charts This works heet d ispl ays the sa vings charts for years 2 010 t hrough 2038 for all the TSLs when the user r uns a specific scenario or a product class in the “National Impa ct Summary” shee

t. Annual Impacts This work sheet ma kes seve ral calc ulations f or the ba se case

as well as for all the TSLs. Savings ar e calculated as the differenc e between the base case and the TSL energy consumption. Shipment s Fore cast acr oss TSLs This worksheet compiles the shipments forecast from the stock sheets (see below) for y

ears 2010 through 2038 for all the TSL s. The output of this worksheet corresponds to the product class for which the model is run. Shipments Charts The shipments forecast charts for the liquid-immersed transfor mers (LT) and dry- type tra nsf

orm ers (DT ) ar e co nt ain ed i n t he “ LT Shipments Charts” and “DT Shipments Charts” worksheets. Shipments Data This worksheet calculates total historical shipments for y ears 1977 through 2000 and forecasts shipments for y ears 2004 through 2038. Th es e s hi pm en ts ar e c al cu la te d f or bo th li qu id -i mm er se d a nd dr ytyp e transf

ormers.10A -3

Stock Sheets Th er e a re 14 st oc k s he et s ( 7 f or li qu id -i mm er se d a nd 7 f or dr ytype) for the

base case and the 6 TSL s. Each stock sheet calculates the shipments, retirements, and affected stock in a particula r year . Lif etime This worksheet contains the transformer reliability function and produces the retirement rates. The proba bilities of retirement generated in this worksheet are use d to calculate the annual retirements in the

stock she ets. LCC Data b y Product Class This work sheet contains energy loss (or c onsumption

) and firstcost data for different product classes. As the na me suggests, the data for this worksheet come direc tly f rom the lif

e-cy cle cost (LCC) analy

sis. The load growth calculations for liquid-immersed and dry -ty pe trans formers

are als o carri ed out in th

is workshe et. CSL-TSL Mappi ng Thi s wo rks hee t m aps th e va rio us C SLs for des ign li nes in to TS Ls for product classes. The worksheet also re- scales the losses and costs for representative units of a design line, using the 0.75 scaling factor in the she et. These

data ar e then ag greg ated into product c lasses in t

he “L CC Data by

Product Cla ss” work sheet. LCC Input Data Data in this worksheet are the mean values for the different variables from the Monte Carlo simulation runs of the LCC for individua l design lines. Market Share Data This worksheet contains the market shares of the diffe rent transformer design lines. This worksheet also ca lculates the 0.75 scaling factors for eac

h design line. Site2Source This worksheet contains the conversion factors for c alculating source energy

from site energy

.

EIA Electricity Sales Data This work sheet contains the historica l and for ecaste d retail electricity sa

les data (obtained from DOE's Energ y I nformation Administration (EIA)). Annual Energ

y Pric e Fore cast10A -4 This worksheet contains the AEO2005 1 forecast data for the electric power sector for the diff erent economic growth scenar ios (i.e., reference, hig

h, and low ). This forecast is used to e stimate future g rowth in sh

ipments. Basic in struction s for ope rating the NI A sprea dsheet a re as fo llows: 1. After downloading the NI A spreadsheet file from DOE's we bsite, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for the worksheet “National I mpact Summary.” This worksheet serves as the user interfac e for running the model for a particula r product class. To provide flexibility, the spreadshee t permits some user modifications to the model. The user may

select a particular macroeconomic f orecast which determines fuel prices, electri city

sales, a nd income

data to be

used by the model . The use

r may also directly input new value s for implicit discount rates, which quantify c onsumer preference for immediate, instead of delay ed, savings. Additionally, the user can select long-term purchas e elastic ities for

transformers.

2. Use Excel’s View/Zoom commands at the top menu bar to chang e the size of the display to make it fit your monitor.

3. The user can change the model parameters listed in the gray box labeled “Inputs.” The parameters are:

a. Economic Growth: To change the value, use the drop-down menu. Select the desired growth level (Refere nce, Low, or Hig

h). b. Discount Rate: To change the value, select cell E8. Type in the de sired discount rate.

c. Elasticity Liquid-Immersed Ty pe: To change the value, use the drop- down menu to pick a level (Medium, High, Low ). d. Elasticity Dry

-Type: To cha

nge the value, use the drop-down menu to pick a le vel (Medium, High, Low). 4. The user can now select the desired produc t class from the drop-down menu and view the results in the summary table for that product class. To produce results for all product classes , the user

will need to click the “All Cla sses Summa ry” button. When the use r gets a message say

ing “Done,” the calculations are complete. Results from this run will be availab le in “Ship -NES-NPV Outputs” w

orkshee t.10A -5

5. The spreadsheet also has a feature that enables the user to produce annual impacts for all product classes in a single workbook by clicking the “Output All Classes Annual” button.The output for this utility is produced in a separate workbook called “annual_impactsoutput.xls.”10A -6 REFERENCE 1. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2005: With Projections Through 2025. January, 2005. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2005). <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html>