U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2016

For

AEO2016 Working Group

December 15, 2015| Washington, DC

By

Trisha Hutchins, Melissa Lynes, John Maples, and Mark Schipper

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

Modeling updates in the transportation sector
AEO2016 Transportation Demand Model Updates

• Domestic and international marine - International Convention for the 

Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL)

• On-road vehicles

– Light duty vehicles (LDV)

– Heavy duty vehicles (HDV)

• Side cases

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

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MARPOL impacts fuel and technology choice

• MARPOL emission controls and fuel standards

– Reflect enacted standards for domestic and international vessels operating in Emission 

Control Areas (ECA)

– ECAs extends up to 200 nautical miles from coasts of the United States (March 26, 2010)

– Reflect ship efficiency improvements, shipping demand changes, and fuel price fluctuations

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

3
• ECA fuel standard or equivalent 

exhaust gas cleaning devices

– Sulphur at 10,000 ppm in 2010

– Sulphur at 1,000 ppm in 2015

• Global fuel standard or equivalent 

exhaust gas cleaning devices

– Sulphur at 35,000 ppm in 2012

– Sulphur at 5,000 ppm in 2020 (subject 

to change based on a 2018 fuel study)

Source: EIA, Marine Fuel Choice for Ocean Going Vessels within Emission Control Areas, 

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/transportation/marinefuel/

MARPOL impacts fuel and technology choice

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AEO2016 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Light duty vehicle updates impact fuel usage and regional 

analysis

• Update historical new light-duty vehicle attribute and fuel economy data 

through 2013

• Update light-duty vehicle stock, sales and travel demand by Census division 

through 2014

• ZEV mandates

– Update model to reflect current ZEV mandates and credits

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

NHTSA Total Fleet

NHTSA Passenger Cars

NHTSA Light Trucks

AEO2015 Total Fleet

AEO2015 Passenger Car

AEO2015 Light Truck

Light-duty vehicle CAFE compliance

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Summary of Fuel Economy Performance, 2014

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AEO2016 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

miles per gallon
Heavy duty vehicle updates impact fuel usage and regional 

analysis

• Update heavy-duty vehicle stock, sales and travel demand by Census 

division through 2014

• Heavy duty vehicle model updates

– New technologies

– Expand and realign compliance classifications from 13 to 20 (including trailers)

– Restructure industrial output categories 

• Side case

– Phase 2 of the MDV/HDV GHG and fuel efficiency standards

• Still trying to determine how to handle trailers in model

• Will be reaching out to the EPA to discuss drive cycle changes

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

7
Percent diesel heavy duty vehicles on road by Census division

Source: 2014 Polk data

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AEO2016 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

West South Central

East North Central

South Atlantic

Pacific

West North Central

Mountain

Middle Atlantic

East South Central

New England

percent heavy-duty vehicles by vintage
Percent gasoline heavy duty vehicles on road by Census division

Source: 2014 Polk data

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AEO2016 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

Mountain

West South Central

South Atlantic

East North Central

Middle Atlantic

Pacific

West North Central

New England

East South Central

percent heavy-duty vehicles by vintage
Comments/discussion

• Pressing suggestions for AEO2016 

• Comments or suggestions for AEO2017

– Contact Transportation Team if interested in taking part in topical Working Group meetings 

next year

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

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Discussion/questions

Trisha Hutchins | phone: 202-586-1029 

| email: patricia.hutchins@eia.gov

Melissa Lynes | phone: 202-586-5192 

| email: melissa.lynes@eia.gov

John Maples | phone: 202-586-1757 

| email: john.maples@eia.gov

Mark Schipper | phone: 202-586-1136

| email: mark.schipper@eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group 

Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

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