U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2018

For

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group #2

September 28, 2017 | Washington, DC

By

Nicholas Chase, Melissa Lynes, John Maples, Mark Schipper, and David Stone

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

Modeling updates in the transportation sector
Updates to the Annual Energy Outlook 2018 transportation 

demand model

• Freight

• Updated California ZEV mandate model

• Final 2015 EPA sales data updates

• Updated LDV travel

• Autonomous vehicles

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

2
Freight 

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017 3
Rubber and plastics

Stone, clay, glass, & 

concrete

Computers

Metals durables, 

excl. computers

Pharmaceuticals

Basic chemicals

Processed food

Furniture

Mining

Other manufacturing

Agriculture

Fertilizers

Primary metals

Paper products

Alcohol and tobacco

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Gross output CAGR (2016-50)

percent

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017

Use of more disaggregated industrial gross output projections drive 

freight demand projections in AEO2018

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: EIA, AEO2018, ref2018.0919a

4

Petroleum Products

= Disaggregation for AEO2018
0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Freight truck vehicle miles traveled

billion vehicle miles

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017

Changes in industrial gross output, coupled with a greater 

disaggregation, yield lower demand for freight and commercial trucks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Sources: EIA, AEO2017, ref2017.1208a; AEO2018, ref2018.0919a

5

Freight trucks greater than 10,000 pounds

Commercial light trucks

Freight trucks greater than 10,000 pounds

Commercial light trucks

AEO2017 AEO2018
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Transportation sector natural gas use

trillion Btu

International marine natural gas use

trillion Btu

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017

Rise in natural gas use between AEO2017 and AEO2018 occurs 

mainly from higher penetration of liquefied natural gas in int’l marine

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Sources: EIA, AEO2017, ref2017.1208a; AEO2018, ref2018.0919a 

6

AEO2018

AEO2017 AEO2018

AEO2017
ZEV Mandate

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017 7
California ZEV mandate background

• Mandates adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) and transitional zeroemission vehicles (TZEV)

• Current regulation starts in 2018

• Nine adopting Section-177 states

• Credit requirements increase through 2025 with ZEVs and TZEVs producing 

varying credits for compliance

• AEO2017 did not include ability to bank and spend credits

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

8
Modeling updates for California ZEV mandate

• Credit bank going into 2018 estimated from 2015 base year with addition of 

2016 and 2017 sales and credit values

• Banks in each region spend down, partially meeting credit short falls until 

~2030

• Sales meet remaining credit requirement short falls, as well as maintain 

sales buffer above requirement as risk mitigation strategy

• Sales mixture of ZEV or TZEV vehicle types is based on cost to 

manufacturer per credit

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

9
Modeling updates for California ZEV mandate - continued

• 300-mile battery electric vehicle type was added

• Optional Section-177 state compliance path was used as primary path

• Updated vehicle credit multipliers to most recent regulation

• Account for credit traveling provision from and to California with other 

Section-177 states

• Inclusion of credit bank “switch” from PZEV and ATPZEV to TZEV in 2018

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

10
0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

New England Middle Atlantic South Atlantic Pacific

Census division

ZEV credits

million

ZEV credit bank in 2018 starts higher than credit requirements in all 

regions

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: EIA, AEO2018, ref2018.0919a

11

Credit requirement vs. Credit bank

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017
0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

ZEV credits

million

ZEV credit bank is used to meet credit mandate, along with credits 

earned from ZEV sales

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Source: EIA, AEO2018, ref2018.0919a

12

Pacific

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017

Middle Atlantic

New England

South Atlantic
Light-duty vehicle updates

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017 13
Final model year 2015 light-duty vehicle data update

• AEO2017 set the base year to 2015 using estimated mid-model year data 

from VOLPE

• AEO2018 updates the sales information to final model year data

• Greatest change is significant switch between cars and light trucks

– Mid-model year data overestimated light-trucks as a whole

– Mid-model year data did not effectively capture rise of car-classified crossover vehicles

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

14
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Vehicle sales (left axis)

Vehicle sales

thousands percent cars

Change in light-duty vehicle sales

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Sources: EIA, AEO2017, ref2017.1208a; AEO2018, refngmm.092617a

15

AEO2017

AEO2018

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017

Percent car (right axis)
0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2017 AEO2018

Hybrid

Electric + HFC

PHEV

Vehicle sales

thousands

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017

Electrified powertrain light-duty vehicle sales

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Sources: EIA, AEO2017, ref2017.1208a; AEO2018, refngmm.092617a

16
0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Diesel

Gasoline + flex fuel

Vehicle sales

thousands

Light-duty conventional vehicle sales

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Sources: EIA, AEO2017, ref2017.1208a; AEO2018, refngmm.092617a

17

AEO2017

AEO2018

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017
20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Light-trucks

Combined

New vehicle compliance fuel economy

miles per gallon

Change in light-duty vehicle fuel economy

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Sources: EIA, AEO2017, ref2017.1208a; AEO2018, refngmm.092617a

18

AEO2017

AEO2018

Cars

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017
0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Vehicle miles travelled

billion vehicle miles

Change in light-duty vehicle miles travelled

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Sources: EIA, AEO2017, ref2017.1208a; AEO2018, refngmm.092617a

19

AEO2017

AEO2018

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017
Total transportation

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017 20
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2017 AEO2018

Light-duty

Air

Rail Marine

Heavy-duty

Other

Energy consumption

quadrillion Btu

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017

Total transportation energy consumption by sector

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

Sources: EIA, AEO2017, ref2017.1208a; AEO2018, refngmm.092617a

21
Autonomous vehicles

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017 22
Planned model updates

• To account for autonomous vehicles we will be adjusting

– Travel profiles 

– Vehicle scrappage rates

• There will be feedback effects on

– Household vehicle ownership and travel

– Bus and rail travel

• The scenarios will vary market penetration of

– Autonomous vehicles

– Ridesharing

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

23
Discussion/questions

Nicholas Chase | phone: 202-586-1879

| email: nicholas.chase@eia.gov

Melissa Lynes | phone: 202-586-5192 

| email: melissa.lynes@eia.gov

John Maples (lead) | phone: 202-586-1757 

| email: john.maples@eia.gov

Mark Schipper | phone: 202-586-1136

| email: mark.schipper@eia.gov

David Stone | phone: 202-586-8851

| email: david.stone@eia.gov

Non-transportation AEO inquiry | email: AnnualEnergyOutlook@eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

AEO2018 Transportation Working Group Meeting #2 

Washington, DC, September 28, 2017 24