U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Macro Industrial Working Group (MIWG)

Industrial Team: Kelly Perl, Team Leader; Peter Gross, Susan Hicks, Paul 

Otis, and Mark Schipper (OECEA)

July 24, 2014 | Washington, DC

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Industrial team plans for AEO2015
AEO2015 lite year additions

• Process flow status (complete AEO2016)

• Data updates

• Regulation changes

• Ethane / propane price modeling

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Industrial Team

Washington DC, July 24, 2014 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
 Process flow models

• General:

– Replace energy consumption based on engineering judgment with specific 

technology or equipment choice e.g. anode production for primary aluminum

– Also can choose technology diffusion 

– Technologies are primarily based on CIMS (Consolidated Impacts Modeling 

System) data from DOE’s (PNNL) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 

• Sub-modules completed: Cement & Lime, Aluminum, Glass

• Project completion for AEO2016

– Steel submodule – in progress, coding in a few months

– Paper submodule – commence in August

3

Industrial Team 

Washington DC, July 24, 2014 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
 Data updates & regulation

• Data

– CHP historical data

– Benchmarking total industrial consumption 

• SEDS (State Energy Data System)

• MER (Monthly Energy Review) 

• STEO (Short Term Energy Outlook)

– Rebase macro input to 2009$

• Regulation

– California GHG cap & trade scoping plan & regulations updated; does not affect IDM 

modeling

– 111(d) NOPR – not modeling for AEO2015; may not be applicable to CHP

• Size: greater than or equal to ~25MW electric in the thermal input cycle; 

industrial CHP not that large

• Industrial CHP not designed to sell significant proportion of electricity to grid. 

4

Industrial Team 

Washington DC, July 24, 2014 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Ethane/Propane Price Modeling

5

Industrial Team 

Washington DC, July 24, 2014 

• Why important

– Influence on macro bulk chemical shipments

– Driver of HGL supply (drilling)

– The ‘new world” of HGL supply in the U.S. 

• AEO2014 model

– Propane: Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) based on gas and oil prices

– Ethane: linear regression using organic & resin shipments as drivers

• AEO2015 new model

– DLM joint pricing model of ethane and propane

– Automated updating of parameters

– Drivers will include exports, chemical shipments, and “total” ethane supply
Memo on this meeting and 

presentation can be found here in about 

a month: 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/macroindustrial/ 

6

Industrial Team 

Washington DC, July 24, 2014 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Thank you for your attention!

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Industrial Team 

Washington DC, July 24, 2014 

Macro Team:

Kay Smith (202) 586-1132 | kay.smith@eia.gov

Vipin Arora (202) 586-1048 | vipin.arora@eia.gov

Russell Tarver (202) 586-3991 | russell.tarver@eia.gov

Elizabeth Sendich (202) 586-7145 | elizabeth.sendich@eia.gov

Industrial Team: EIA-OECEAIndustrialTeam@eia.gov

Kelly Perl (202) 586-1743

Peter Gross (202) 586-8822

Susan Hicks (202) 586-4388

Paul Otis (202) 586-2306

Mark Schipper (OECEA) (202) 586-1136

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE