U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov 

John Maples, Patricia Hutchins, Nicholas Chase 

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis 

August 14, 2012 | Washington, DC 

Annual Energy Outlook 2013:

Modeling Updates in the Transportation Sector 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Overview 

2

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates 

Washington, D.C., August 2012 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 

• Light-duty vehicle 

– Light-duty vehicle technology update based on EPA/NHTSA Notice of Proposed Rule for 

model years 2017 through 2025 

• Heavy-duty vehicle 

– Natural gas vehicle cost, owner/operator acceptance, and refueling availability 

• Potential future updates 

– Battery and non-battery systems cost by vehicle range 

– Heavy-duty vehicle technology 

– Improve representation of HD national program and heavy-duty vehicle market 

– Natural gas for rail 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

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Light-duty vehicle modeling update 

3

• Light duty vehicle technology list update to include most recent 

information from 

– Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) for 2017 and later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle 

Corporate Average Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards, Preliminary 

Regulatory Impact Analysis 

– Joint Rulemaking to Establish CAFE and GHG Emissions Standards, MY 2012-2016

– Average Fuel Economy Standards, Passenger Cars and Light Trucks, MY 2011, Final 

Regulatory Impact Analysis 

– Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles, National Academies, 

2010

• Changes include: 

– Inclusion of new technologies, cost and fuel economy benefits 

– Technology market penetration for model year 2010 (requires technology market 

penetration file from EPA/NHTSA) 

– Learning rates and cost reduction 

– Rates of market penetration 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates 

Washington, D.C., August 2012 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Light-duty vehicle modeling update 

4

• Technology list includes: 

– Vehicle (Mass Reduction I to V; Aerodynamics I and II; Tires I and II; Low Drag Brakes; 

Secondary Axle Disconnect) 

– Transmission (6 speed Manual; 6 to 8 speed Automatic; 5 to 8 speed Dual Clutch 

Automated Manual; High Efficiency Gearboxes; Improved Automatic Controls/Externals I 

and II; Continuously Variable Transmission) 

– Accessories/Electrification (Electric Power Steering; Improved Accessories I and II; 12V 

Micro Hybrid; Integrated Starter Generator) 

– Engine (Conversion to SOHC and DOHC; Low Friction Lubricants; Engine Friction 

Reduction I and II; Cylinder Deactivation; Variable Valve Timing I to III; Variable Valve Lift I 

and II; Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection; Turbocharging and Downsizing I to III with 

Cooled Exhaust Gas Recirculation for levels II and III) 

– Horsepower change from new technology 

 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates 

Washington, D.C., August 2012 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Light-duty vehicle modeling update 

5

• Questions regarding technology list 

– Backing out learning from vehicle incremental cost in 2017 

– Incremental cost/effectiveness information on OHV, SOHC, DOHC configurations 

– Incremental cost/effectiveness information on Integrated Starter Generator 

– Ordering among the various technology trees

– More information on Small, Medium, Large Displacement engine definition 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates 

Washington, D.C., August 2012 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Heavy-duty vehicle modeling update 

6

• Natural gas vehicle incremental cost based on engine cost plus 

tank cost 

• Natural gas vehicle engine costs 

– Class 3 engine cost: $1,417 

– Class 4 to 6 engine cost: $19,750 

– Class 7 to 8 engine cost: $33,875 

• Natural gas vehicle tank costs 

Vehicle 

Class

$/dge tank 

capacity cost

Fuel

type

Class 3 $340 CNG

Class 4-6 $450 LNG

Class 7-8 $475 LNG

Source: Cummins/Westport 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates 

Washington, D.C., August 2012 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
7

• Natural gas vehicle tank sized 

according to vehicle miles 

travelled 

• Natural gas vehicle incremental 

cost now consists of engine + tank 

cost: 

– Class 3: $9,750 to $37,555 

– Class 4 to 6: $34,150 to $69,250 

– Class 7 to 8: $49,075 to $86,125 

VMT

Group

Annual

miles

Vehicle Cost ($)

Class 

3

Class 

4-6

Class 

7-8

1 12,554 9,750 34,150 49,075

2 27,855 9,750 34,150 49,075

3 46,021 9,750 40,000 55,250

4 62,276 12,008 44,500 60,000

5 85,000 15,872 54,400 70,450

6 110,000 20,124 60,250 76,625

7 125,000 22,675 69,250 86,125

8 147,500 26,501 69,250 86,125

9 167,500 29,902 69,250 86,125

10 187,500 33,303 69,250 86,125

11 212,500 37,555 69,250 86,125

Heavy-duty vehicle modeling update 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates 

Washington, D.C., August 2012 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
8

• Natural gas fuel price for in both liquefied and compressed form, 

by retail or fleet operation 

Heavy-duty vehicle modeling update 

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

diesel

LNG retail 

LNG fleet 

CNG retail 

CNG fleet 

projection 

Source: AEO2012, HDV Reference case 

(2010$/dge) 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates 

Washington, D.C., August 2012 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Heavy-duty vehicle modeling updates 

9

• AEO 2012 and AEO2013 includes the HD National Program fuel 

efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions standards: 

– Class 3  (2) 

• Class 3 Pickup and Van 

• Class 3 Vocational 

– Class 4-6  (1) 

• Class 4-6 Vocational 

– Class 7-8  (10) 

• Class 7-8 Vocational 

• Class 7 Day Cab (low, mid, high) 

• Class 8 Day Cab (low, mid, high) 

• Class 8 Sleeper Cab (low, mid, high) 

• AEO2012 and AEO2013 included technologies described by 

EPA/NHTSA in Final Rule and Regulatory Impact Analysis 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates 

Washington, D.C., August 2012 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Future modeling updates 

10

• Light-duty vehicle battery electric vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, EVs) 

– BatPaC model developed by Argonne National Lab 

– Battery Ownership Model (BOM) developed by NREL 

– Develop battery and non-battery systems cost modeling depending on power/energy ratio 

specific to different vehicle configurations and range 

• Further study and update to heavy-duty vehicle technology 

attributes and penetration, vehicle market representation, and 

modeling of HD National Program 

• Inclusion of natural gas as a fuel option for rail and inclusion of 

stock model for locomotives 

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates 

Washington, D.C., August 2012 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Questions/Feedback 

11

John Maples 

(202)-586-1757 john.maples@eia.gov

Patricia Hutchins 

(202)-586-1029 patricia.hutchins@eia.gov

Nicholas Chase 

(202)-586-8851 nicholas.chase@eia.gov

AEO2013 Transportation Model Updates 

Washington, D.C., August 2012 

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE