U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2023

For

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group

September 15, 2022 | Washington, DC

By

Caroline Campbell, Michael Dwyer, and John Maples (lead)

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling

Planned modeling and data updates in the transportation sector
Outline

• Recap of Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) Reference case

• Planned data and modeling updates for the AEO2023 Transportation Sector 

Demand Model

– Light-duty vehicles (LDV)

– Heavy-duty vehicles (HDV)

– Other

– Policy

• Discussion

2

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022
Annual Energy Outlook 2022 Recap

3

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022
AEO2022: Transportation sector energy consumption 

4 AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AEO2022: Passenger and freight travel by mode

5 AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AEO2022: Light-duty vehicle sales by powertrain

6 AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AEO2023 Updates and Preliminary 

Results

7

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022
Light-duty vehicle

8

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022
Transportation sector gasoline consumption

9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

quads AEO2022

AEO2023 (preliminary)

Travel 

(VMT)

Efficiency 

(MPG)

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Slightly higher population offset by reduced VMT per 

driver

10

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

index (2019 = 1.0)

VMT per

driver

Total LDV

VMT

Licensed

drivers

- - - AEO2022

— AEO2023 (preliminary)

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
VMT per driver

11

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

index (2019 = 1.0)

Disposable 

income

VMT per driver

Cost to drive

Employment rate

- - - AEO2022

— AEO2023 (preliminary)

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
VMT per driver

12

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

index (2019 = 1.0)

Disposable 

income

VMT per driver

Cost to drive

Employment rate

- - - AEO2022

— AEO2023 (preliminary)

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Light duty vehicle stock fuel economy

13

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

miles per gallon

Fleet average

Light truck

Car

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

share of LDV stock

Electric vehicle sales and stock

14

- - - AEO2022

— AEO2023 (preliminary)

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Plug-in hybrid

Battery electric
Higher sales projection (more new efficient vehicles in the 

fleet)

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

million vehicles AEO2022

AEO2023 (preliminary)

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Summary – Light duty vehicles

• Less VMT (lower employment and higher gasoline prices earlier on)

• Higher fuel economy (new vehicles are more efficient, more EVs, and more 

new vehicles in general)

• Less energy

16 AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Other LDV updates

17

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022
LDV ZEV credit update

Re-activated and refreshed 

ZEV mandate code. 

Now includes additional 

states that have joined since 

it was active (a couple years 

ago). Required reprocessing Polk data as well 

as getting the latest statelevel data on credit status

In the end, very little impact 

on model results

18 AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
LDV Scrappage regionalization – Scrappage in AEO2022

19

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25

Cumulative national vehicle survival rates, AEO2022

Car Light truck

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
LDV Scrappage regionalization – scrappage in AEO2023

20

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0 5 10 15 20 25

Regional Cumulative Survival Rate - Car - 2016-2020

Polk

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

6

8

7

2

5

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0 5 10 15 20 25

Regional Cumulative Survival Rate - Light truck - 2016-

2020 Polk

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

6

8

7

2

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
LDV Scrappage regionalization – scrappage in AEO2023

21

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0 5 10 15 20 25

Regional Cumulative Survival Rate - Car - 2016-2020

Polk

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

6

8

7

2

5

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0 5 10 15 20 25

Regional Cumulative Survival Rate - Light truck - 2016-

2020 Polk

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

6

8

7

2

9 8 4 3 2

1

7

6

5

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Diesel

22 AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Transportation sector diesel consumption

23

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

quadrillion BTU AEO2022

AEO2023 (preliminary)

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Freight

24 AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Ton-mile demand by mode

25

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

billion ton-miles

Truck

Waterborne

Rail

- - - AEO2022

— AEO2023 (preliminary)

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Public Transit

26 AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Transit Update

27 AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

billion passenger-miles

Passenger bus travel demand

- - - AEO2022

— AEO2023 (preliminary)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

billion passenger-miles

Passenger rail travel demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

trillion btu

Passenger rail energy consumption

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

trillion btu

Passenger bus energy consumption
Air

28 AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Air model re-regionalization

29

1 United States

2 Canada

3 Central America

4 South America

5 Europe

6 Africa

7 Middle East

8 Russia

9 China

10 Northeast Asia

11 Southeast Asia

12 Southwest Asia

13 Oceania

1 United States

2 Canada

3 Mexico

4 OECD Europe

5 Japan

6 Australia/New Zealand

7 South Korea

8 Russia

9 Other Europe

10 China

11 India

12 Other Asia

13 Middle East

14 Africa

15 Brazil

16 Other Central/South 

America

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Policy Updates

30 AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
• Federal plug in electric vehicle tax credit: up to $7500 tax credit for 

BEVs and PHEVs

• 2020: Safer Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE) Rule 

• 2021: NHTSA repeals SAFE I (12/21/2021)

• 2022: EPA reinstatement of California’s CAA waiver (3/14/2022)

• 2022: NHTSA CAFE update (3/21/2022)

• 2022: Inflation Reduction Act (8/16/2022) – vehicle tax credit with 

materials, manufacturing, income, and vehicle MSRP constraints

• 2021: Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act / Bipartisan 

infrastructure law (11/15/2021)

• 2022: Pending policies (e.g. CA ICE vehicle ban, Advanced Clean 

Trucks Rule)

Key transportation policies in NEMS

31

Included in 

AEO2022

Not in AEO2023

Partially in 

AEO2023

Included in 

AEO2023

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Clean vehicle tax credit

• Minimum battery capacity (increase from 4 to 7 kWh)

• Point of sale provision (already assumed in TRAN)

• Not be modeled explicitly as written in the regulation 

but will likely be represented by application of CBO’s 

projected expenditures:

– OEM sales cap removal

– Foreign entity of concern exclusion

– Battery component source constraints

– Critical mineral source constraints

– Household income constraint

– Vehicle MSRP constraint

Previously-owned clean vehicle credit

Qualified commercial clean vehicle credit

Planned for inclusion in AEO2023 Not to be included in AEO2023

NEMS Transportation modeling of the 2022 IRA

32

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022
Updates still pending

• EPA base year update: now have official 2020 Model Year sales, so we will adjust the LDV model 

base year from 2019 to 2020. This will adjust vehicle attributes (fuel economy, price, curb weight, 

etc) as well as sales shares by size class and manufacturer

• NHTSA CAFE tech menu update: will impact the possible efficiency improvement pathways 

available to manufacturers in TRAN

• Calibrate LDV sales shares for 2021 and 2022 (will increase EVs)

• LDV travel by powertrain

• Potentially a battery model update (costs going up now)

• Polk vehicle registration update: Year-end 2021 data will arrive soon, and will need to be 

processed to update total vehicle stocks (LDV and HDV) as well as scrappage inputs.

• Final covid update for the air model

• Adjust freight rail LNG projection

33 AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Discussion

34

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022
Contact information

Caroline Campbell | phone: 202-586-0259

| email: caroline.campbell@eia.gov

Michael Dwyer | phone: 202-586-8406

| email: michael.dwyer@eia.gov

John Maples (lead) | phone: 202-586-1757 

| email: john.maples@eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo

35

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AEO2023 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 15, 2022