WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

September 1, 2020

MEMORANDUM FOR: Angelina LaRose

Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis

FROM: Jim Diefenderfer

Director, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis

SUBJECT: Summary of AEO2021 Joint Electricity-Renewables Working Group 

Meeting held on August 6, 2020

The working group presentation summarized the results from the Annual Energy Outlook 2020

(AEO2020) and discussed the expected data and modeling updates for AEO2021 in relation to both 

electricity and renewables. These updates are included in the presentation materials provided in a 

separate document on EIA’s website.

Overview

AEO2021 will include the eight core side cases (High/Low Economic Growth, High/Low Oil Price, 

High/Low Oil and Gas Supply, and High/Low Renewables Cost), along with the Reference case.

The first working group meeting provided an opportunity to identify issues or topics that might be better 

addressed through smaller, targeted working group discussions and to solicit stakeholder feedback for 

consideration in future modeling efforts. 

Additionally, EIA is assessing the implications of the global disruption related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

We highlighted the upcoming macro/industrial working group meeting and planning underway for EIA 

to host a series of workshops on the heightened uncertainty surrounding energy outlooks over the nearand long-term. Attendees were encouraged to contact EIA staff for an invitation to those meetings.

Model updates

EIA staff began the meeting by presenting an overview of the updates in AEO2020, including

• Comprehensive update to power-sector technologies capital costs

• Included State requirements for offshore wind

• Reintroduced the Low Renewables Cost and High Renewables Cost cases and adoption of 

those side cases into our annual set of core side cases that run with each AEO cycle

• Updated renewable portfolio standards

The meeting outlined possible updates for AEO2021, divided into three categories: projects either 

already completed or to be completed, possible projects, and long-term projects.

Some of the projects to be completed or already completed for AEO2021 include
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

• Adopt a dynamic regional redefinition capability in the Electricity Market Module (EMM) but 

omit a new regional definition for AEO2021

• Include solar photovoltaic (PV) plus storage as an option for capacity expansion

• Update long-term resource multipliers for the new regions established in AEO2020 (We used 

proxy values during previous AEO cycle.)

• Implement revised landfill gas submodule

• Include small modular reactors (SMR) in utility-capacity expansion plans 

• Treat distributed generation differently. (All building sector distributed generation will be 

dispatched within the EMM at capacity factors determined by the end-use models.)

Some possible projects for AEO2021 include:

• Determine an approach to decrement capacity credit for storage for high levels of storage 

penetration (This approach is one we will consider developing but will not likely implement for 

AEO2021.)

Some long-term projects that we will not complete for AEO2021 but we discussed to allow comment 

include:

• Revise methodology for transmission and distribution spending projections 

• Add costal wind as a designated technology type (currently only represented as a regional 

difference in capital cost) 

• Investigate utility integrated resource plans (IRPs) for potential use as a side case (EIA does not 

plan to change its precedent; current laws and regulations will remain the basis for Reference 

Case input assumptions.)

We also explained to participants that we have not determined the final details surrounding possible 

updates, and we are currently welcoming outside input for consideration. 

We opened the presentation for questions and comments regarding the updates we are considering for 

AEO2021 and beyond.

Discussion

The discussion following the presentation focused on a number of more detailed topics.

Several participants asked for clarification on the capital costs first used in AEO2020. One participant 

asked how the cost assumptions compare with the annual baseline published by the National 

Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and another asked about the basis for the small-modular reactor 

capital costs. We provided a link to the most recent capital cost study commissioned by EIA. We

explained that some of the capital costs used as inputs, such as for PV, are slightly lower than the 2019 

NREL baseline but the fossil-fuel technology costs are fairly well aligned. 

Attendees also expressed great interest in the brief discussion of the investigation EIA staff is 

undertaking to evaluate utility integrated resource plans in the context of decarbonization targets. 

Participants were interested in how EIA plans to incorporate the IRP targets into AEO2021 or future AEO 

cycles. We pointed out that we neither plan to integrate the existing utility IRPs research into the

AEO2021 Reference case, nor do we plan to change our precedent. Current laws and regulations will 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

remain the basis for input assumptions for the Reference case. We did add that the IRP research could 

lead to a future Issues in Focus article or another similar report, but we currently do not have a specific 

plan. 

The last questions participants asked were about storage modeling. Participants were interested in 

whether EIA had considered other storage technologies beyond battery storage, specifically newer 

battery storage technologies the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Storage Grand Challenge is 

investigating. Other participants asked how EIA staff models battery storage arbitrage value. We

currently model a four-hour battery storage technology for capacity expansion and dispatch and 

pumped hydroelectric storage for dispatch. Currently, we do not plan to add new storage technologies 

for AEO2021, but we constantly review emerging storage technologies for possible inclusion in future 

AEO cycles. Regarding modeling arbitrage value, we responded that battery storage will pick up the 

arbitrage value, such as when storing electricity generated by solar photovoltaic units as well as 

providing capacity value to the grid, but frequency response or other grid services are beyond the 

resolution of the model. 

Attendees

The working group meeting was the first entirely online working group hosted by EIA, and 88 people

attended, which includes EIA staff and external participants.

Guests

First 

Name Last Name Affiliation 

Misha Adamantiades U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Aqeel Adenwala Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.

Jim Ahlgrimm U.S. Department of Energy

Brian Atkins Southern Company

Justin Baca Solar Energy Industries Association

Jose Benitez U.S. Department of Energy

Ann Benso Grenergy Renovables 

Nate Blair National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Marc Chupka Energy Storage Association 

Wesley Cole National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Leslie Coleman National Mining Association 

Holley Copeland Southern Company

Paul Donohoo-Vallett U.S. Department of Energy

Diana Friedman U.S. International Trade Commission

Rachel Goldstein Solar Energy Industries Association

John Hensley American Wind Energy Association

Warren Hess Midcontinent Independent System Operator
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Jonathan Ho National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Aditya Jayam Prabhakar Midcontinent Independent System Operator

Rob Jennings Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.

Tina Kassrsberg U.S. Department of Energy

Serpil Kayin U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Lauren Khair National Rural Electric Cooperative Association

Ben King Rhodium Group

Jordan Kislear U.S. Department of Energy

Hannah Kolus Rhodium Group

Danielle Koren U.S. Department of Energy

Michael Leitman National Rural Electric Cooperative Association

Yanghe Liu Entergy

Jennifer Macedonia JLM Environmental Consulting 

Trieu Mai National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Cara Marcy U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Nihal Mohan Midcontinent Independent System Operator

Jim Moore Spire Energy

Patricia Mueller U.S. International Trade Commission

Karthik Munukutla Midcontinent Independent System Operator

Karen Obenshain Edison Electric Institute 

James Okullo Midcontinent Independent System Operator

Hannah Pitt Rhodium Group

Sandra Sattler Union of Concerned Scientists 

David Shin American Petroleum Institute

Sharon Showalter On Location

Paul Spitsen U.S. Department of Energy

Tom Stanton National Regulatory Research Institute 

Adam Stern American Wind Energy Association

Chen-Hao Tsai Midcontinent Independent System Operator

Boddu Venkatesh ICF

Celeste Wanner American Wind Energy Association

David White Synapse Energy

Tom Wilson Electric Power Research Institute 

Frances Wood On Location

Bob Woodfield General Electric

Paul Zummo Public Power

EIA staff attendees

First Name Last Name Affiliation 

Greg Adams U.S. Energy Information Administration

Lori Aniti U.S. Energy Information Administration

Lindsay Aramayo U.S. Energy Information Administration

Erin Boedecker U.S. Energy Information Administration
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Michelle Bowman U.S. Energy Information Administration

Kien Chau U.S. Energy Information Administration

Michael Cole U.S. Energy Information Administration

David Daniels U.S. Energy Information Administration

Jim Diefenderfer U.S. Energy Information Administration

Kenneth Dubin U.S. Energy Information Administration

Kathryn Dyl U.S. Energy Information Administration

Meera Fickling U.S. Energy Information Administration

David Fritsch U.S. Energy Information Administration

Tyler Hodge U.S. Energy Information Administration

Thaddeus Huetteman U.S. Energy Information Administration

Kevin Jarzomski U.S. Energy Information Administration

Scott Jell U.S. Energy Information Administration

Slade Johnson U.S. Energy Information Administration

Augustine Kwon U.S. Energy Information Administration

Angelina LaRose U.S. Energy Information Administration

Perry Lindstrom U.S. Energy Information Administration

Vikram Linga U.S. Energy Information Administration

Nilay Manzagol U.S. Energy Information Administration

Laura Martin U.S. Energy Information Administration

Fred Mayes U.S. Energy Information Administration

Mark Morey U.S. Energy Information Administration

Kevin Nakolan U.S. Energy Information Administration

Chris Namovicz U.S. Energy Information Administration

Andri Rizhakov U.S. Energy Information Administration

John Staub U.S. Energy Information Administration

Manussawee Sukunta U.S. Energy Information Administration

Edward Thomas U.S. Energy Information Administration

Bonnie West U.S. Energy Information Administration