August 14, 2012

MEMORANDUM FOR: JOHN CONTI

ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR FOR ENERGY 

ANALYSIS

 PAUL HOLTBERG 

TEAM LEADER

ANALYSIS INTEGRATION TEAM

JIM TURNURE

DIRECTOR

OFFICE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND EFFICIENCY 

ANALYSIS

FROM: TRANSPORTATION CONSUMPTION & EFFICIENCY

ANALYSIS TEAM

SUBJECT: First AEO2013 Transportation Working Group Meeting Summary 

(presented on 08-14-2012)

Attendees: Aaron Bergman (DOE/PI)

Jeff Cole (EPA/OTAQ)

John Conti (EIA/OEA)

Walter Gazda (DOT/VOLPE)

Dave Gelman (New West Technologies)

Kevin Green (DOT/VOLPE)

Carrie Huges-Cromwick (EIA/OES)

Therese Langer (ACEEE)

Kevin Lillis (EIA/OEA)

Melissa Lott (DOE/CF)

John Maples (EIA/OEA)

John Meyer (SAIC)

Tien Nguyen (DOE/EERE)

Dennis Smith (DOE/EERE)

Jim Turnure (EIA/OEA)

Tom White (DOE/PI)

Attending by Phone: Megan Beardsley (EPA/OTAQ)

Bill Charmley (EPA/OTAQ)

John Davies (DOT/FHWA)

Ben Ellies (EPA/OTAQ)

Aaron Hula (EPA/OTAQ)

Ari Kahan (EPA/OTAQ)

Ken Katz (DOT/NHTSA)

Nico Kydes (OnLocation)
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Ed Nam (EPA/OTAQ)

Luke Tonachel (NRDC)

Jake Ward (DOE/EERE)

Frances Wood (OnLocation)

Presenters: Nick Chase

Trisha Hutchins

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

The working group presentation provided a discussion of the projects underway and anticipated 

for AEO 2013. An overview of the projects discussed is included in the presentation materials 

provided as a separate attachment.

Specific discussion/questions:

1. The expected release date and projection horizon for the AEO2013 Reference case 

were discussed as well as whether there would be an early release case with a final 

reference case to follow. EIA plans to release only one Reference case this year and 

is planning to provide projections to year 2040.

2. EIA was asked if the AEO2013 Reference case and other side cases would include 

the EPA/NHTSA GHG and CAFE standards for light duty vehicle model years 2017 

through 2025. EIA indicated that if the standards are finalized before the release date, 

then they will be included in the Reference case. 

3. EIA was asked if the EPA/NHTSA technology updates related to the proposed rule 

making were adopted, would additional advanced technologies be represented post 

2025. EIA indicated that the technology menu for light duty vehicle would include 

technologies not listed in the EPA/NHTSA rulemaking. EIA also stated that it was 

seeking additional technology attribute data for potential impacts on vehicle weight 

and horsepower.

4. EPA and NHTSA both stated that they would support EIA efforts to incorporate their 

technology information by providing detailed data and information on their 

assumptions and review of our technology efficiency and cost assumptions. 

5. EIA stated there would be a separate meeting scheduled to discuss the EIA developed 

technology input assumptions that would be limited to a self selected sub-group of the 

working group.

6. EIA was asked about methodologies to cost out on-board storage of LNG and CNG. 

EIA indicated that it had worked with industry suppliers to estimate storage costs. 

EERE indicated they may have additional information that could be provided.

7. EIA was asked how it addresses risk in determining purchase of natural gas vehicles 

and the development of natural gas fueling infrastructure. EIA indicated that it used 

published payback periods and annual travel estimates to determine costs 

effectiveness to consumers. Questions about infrastructure development were 

directed to the oil and gas supply working group.
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8. EIA was asked if it disaggregated the heavy truck market into segments (like refuse 

or bucket trucks) that best fit LNG and electric vehicle applications and how LNG 

and electric vehicles were competed in the model. EIA does not model specific 

vehicle market/applications and LNG and electric vehicle types are competed on a 

cost effectiveness basis given average rates of fuel consumption by the segments 

modeled.

9. EIA requested data and information on freight truck market segmentation and fuel use 

and on locomotive use and operation. 

Complete Listing of Invitees:

Alex, Aileen DOE/CFO

Alson, Jeff EPA/OTAQ

Charmley, Bill EPA/OTAQ

Chase, Nick EIA/OEA

Chien, David DOT/RITA

Coe, Ed EPA/OTAQ

Cole, Jefferson EPA/OTAQ

Davis, Stacy ORNL

Davies, John DOT/FHWA

Duleep, KG H-D Systems

Ellies, Ben EPA/OTAQ

Garg, Rishi OPC

Gazda, Walter DOT/VOLPE

Gelman, Dave New West Technologies

Green, Kevin DOT/VOLPE

Greene, David ORNL

Hassenboehler, Tom ANGA

Herzog, Erik EPA/OTAQ

Holtberg, Paul EIA/OEA

Howden, Ken DOE/EERE

Huges-Cromwick, Carrie EIA/OES

Hula, Aaron EPA/OTAQ

Hutchins, Trisha EIA/OEA

Hwang, Roland NRDC

Kaarsberg, Tina DOE/EERE

Kafalenos, Robert DOT/FHWA

Kahan, Ari EPA/OTAQ

Katz, Ken DOT/NHTSA

Kliesch, Jim UCS

Kydes, Nico OnLocation
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Langer, Therese ACEEE

Lillis, Kevin EIA/OEA

Lipman, Zoe NWF

Lott, Melissa DOE/CFO

Maples, John EIA/OEA

Mayes, Fred EIA/OEA

Memmott, Jeffery DOT/RITA

Mesnikoff, Ann Sierra Club

Meyer, John SAIC

Mintz, Marianne ANL

Moore, Jim TAE

Neff, Shirley EIA/OA

Nguyen, Tien DOE/EERE

Norris, Sylvia EIA/OES

Prugar, Andrew EPA

Schaufele, Roger DOT/FAA

Santini, Dan ANL Shpitsberg, Anna DOE/CFO

Smith, Jason ANGA

Plotkin, Steve ANL

Stork, Kevin DOE/EERE

Sylvan, Stephan EPA/OAR

Tonachel, Luke NRDC

Turnure, Jim EIA/OEA

VanSchalkwyk, John DOT/VOLPE

Venu, Ghanta EPA/OA

Ward, Jake DOE/EERE

White, Tom DOE/PI

Whitman, Pete DOE/PI

Wolcott, Mark EPA

Wood, Frances OnLocation