WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

November 9, 2017

MEMORANDUM FOR: Ian Mead

Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis

FROM: James Turnure

Director of Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

Kelly Perl

Team Lead, Industrial Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

SUBJECT: Summary of the second AEO2018 Industrial Working Group Meeting, 

September 28, 2017

This memorandum provides an overview of presentation given at the second AEO2018 Industrial 

Working Group meeting and a summary of the discussion that followed. The meeting covered

preliminary results for the Industrial Demand Module (IDM) of the National Energy Modeling System. 

The full presentation is available under separate cover.

Preliminary results 

These results are based on updates outlined in the first working group: the 2014 Manufacturing Energy 

Consumption Survey (MECS), State Energy Data System, combined heat and power cost projections, and 

capacity and generation data. As of the date of the meeting, chemical feedstock projections, and 

physical steel and aluminum output for 2014 through 2016 had not been updated.

Energy consumption grows at 1.2%/yr and total industrial shipments grow at 1.7%/yr over the period of

2017-2050, consistent with declining energy intensity. While energy intensity declines in both 

preliminary AEO2018 results and AEO2017, energy intensity is higher in the preliminary AEO2018 results 

than AEO2017. In preliminary AEO2018 results, energy intensive manufacturing had a larger share of 

shipments than in AEO2017.

Natural gas energy consumption shares are similar between the preliminary AEO2018 results and 

AEO2017—about 40% throughout the projections. Renewables share is slightly higher in the preliminary 

AEO2018 results than AEO2017. 

Combined head and power in particular is higher than last year, especially for bulk chemicals because

bulk chemicals shipments are markedly higher than last year.

Discussion

A question was asked about the Current Account balance. The IDM does not take into account the 

Current Account balance, but trade is an issue that does interest the team and may occupy its time in 

the next few years.
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

A question was asked related to release timing. Staff indicated that the current plan was to release 

AEO2018 in January 2018 with the Reference and core side cases. In addition, the format will be similar 

to the AEO2017. Later in 2018, Issues in Focus articles and non-core side cases will be released.

A meeting participant noted that the 2017 ACEEE state energy scorecard, which is used in part to 

regionally allocate CHP capacity in the IDM, was about to be released. 

There was a question about how the IDM modeled regions. The IDM models the four Census regions. 

For example, Regional differences in shipments drive regional energy use. The IDM does not model at 

the state level. In particular, the impact of California’s GHG regulations (AB32) cannot be modeled at the 

state level in the IDM. The impact of AB32 on GHG emissions must be modeled as part of Region 4 GHG 

impact.

There was a question about the outlook for the paper industry in the long run. Staff indicated that paper 

shipments were trending upwards in the long run, unlike last year. 

Attendees

Guests (in person) Affiliation

Robert Hershey Robert L. Hershey, P.E.

Keith Jamison Energetics

Guests (registered on WebEx) Affiliation

Andrea Gensler Bureau of Labor Statistics

Angelina LaRose EIA

Colin McMillan NREL

Elke Hodson DOE

Eric Masanet Northwestern University

Frances Wood OnLocation, Inc.

Francesco Memoli Tenova Inc.

Jerry Schwartz AF&PA

Jill Quick RBAC Inc.

John Meyer Leidos

Neal Elliott ACEEE

Sugandha Tuladhar NERA

William Morrow Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

EIA Attendees (in person)

Vipin Arora

Paul Otis

Kelly Perl

Matthew Skelton