U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Renewable Electricity in the Annual 

Energy Outlook

For

Renewable Electricity Working Group 

July 24, 2014

Christopher Namovicz and Gwen Bredehoeft

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team

AEO2014 results and status updates for the AEO2015
Agenda

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014 2

• Review of AEO2014

– Changes made for AEO2014

– Review of Results

• Status of AEO2015 

• Updates planned for AEO2015

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Updates included in the AEO2014

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014 3

Data Updates Model Updates

Updates of planned capacity builds 

based on updated Form EIA-860 

data

Integration of POLYSYS with 

NEMS to create model-interactive 

supply curves for agricultural 

residues & energy crops

Update of effective expiration dates

for production tax credit

Updated handling of spinning 

reserves, with the required levels 

now better accounting for impact of 

intermittent generators (EMM)

Initial capital cost updated from 

SAIC report (used for AEO2013) 

based on EIA’s learning model

RPS updates – several small 

adjustments, namely Colorado 

update for increasing muni/co-op 

target and removing bonus in-state 

credits.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Non-Hydro Renewable Generation more than doubles between 

2012 and 2040 in the Reference case

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014 4

Non-hydro renewable generation in the AEO2014 Reference case

billion kilowatthours

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Wind

Solar

Geothermal

Municipal waste

Industrial CHP

Power sector

History Projections

Biomass

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Other renewables

Solar

Wind

Hydropower

Natural gas and oil

Nuclear

Coal

Capacity additions for all fuel types are moderate from 

approximately 2016-2025

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014 5

Annual capacity additions by fuel source, Reference case

gigawatts

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

History Projections

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Other renewables

Solar

Wind

Hydropower

Renewable capacity additions slow following the expiration of 

the federal tax credits, but pick up in the final decade of the 

projection

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014 6

Annual renewable capacity additions by fuel source, Reference case

gigawatts

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

History Projections

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Hydro continues to be the leading single source 

of renewable generation in the Reference case

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014 7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Hydropower generation

billion kilowatthours

Wind generation

billion kilowatthours

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Geothermal, biomass, and solar all contribute to the 

growth of non-hydro renewable generation

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014 8

0

30

60

90

120

150

2010 2020 2030 2040

Biomass and Waste

billion kilowatthours

Geothermal Generation

billion kilowatthours

Solar Generation

billion kilowatthours

0

30

60

90

120

150

2010 2020 2030 2040

solar PV (distributed/end-use)

solar PV (utility)

solar thermal

0

30

60

90

120

150

2010 2020 2030 2040

cofiring

end-use biomass

dedicated biomass

MSW/LFG

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Annual Energy Outlook 2015

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014 9

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
The AEO2015 will be abridged compared to 

previous editions

10

• To focus more resources on rapidly changing energy markets and how they might 

evolve over the next few years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration is 

revising the schedule and approach for production of the International Energy 

Outlook (IEO) and the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).

• Under this approach, a full edition of the IEO and AEO will be produced in 

alternating years and an interim, shorter edition of each will be completed in the off 

years. The AEO2015 will be the first short version of the Annual Energy Outlook.

2014 2015

International 

Energy Outlook

Interim Edition to be 

released summer

2014

Full Edition will be released in spring 2015

Annual Energy 

Outlook

Full Edition released 

in spring 2014

Interim Edition will be released in early 

2015. The shorter version will include an 

abbreviated discussion and results from 

select cases:

• Reference 

• Low and High Economic Growth

• Low and High Oil Price

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Model and data updates for the AEO2015 

will be complete by early September

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014 11

• AEO Modelers are in the process of implementing data and 

model updates.

• All data and model changes to be complete by 9/3/2014

• Reference case frozen by 10/1/2014 

• AEO2015 release scheduled for mid-December 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Due to abbreviated schedule, there will be 

relatively few updates for AEO2015

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014 12

• Planned capacity additions, based on updated EIA survey (EIA860) data

• Continued refinement of POLYSYS integration

• Re-evaluation of overnight capital cost assumptions 

• Update of state renewable portfolio standard targets (Ohio’s twoyear target freeze, others?)

• Calibration with the Short Term Energy Outlook

• EIA continues to model only current laws and policies, so proposed

EPA rules will not be included in AEO2015

• Currently working on for AEO2016 – solar performance input 

updates, wind supply curve updates, geothermal site-specific cost 

updates.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Survey data updates for the 2013 data cycle will result 

in increased planned builds, particularly for wind and 

solar, 2014-2016

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014 13

Planned capacity additions in the AEO2014 v. preliminary AEO2015

megawatts

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 and Form EIA-860

Note: Planned builds for AEO2015 are preliminary and expected to change. Figure does not include 

unplanned (model built) capacity additions

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2016

2015

2014

2013

solar geothermal hydro wind

AEO 2014 AEO2015 (preliminary) AEO2014 

unplanned 

(model) builds 

through 2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AEO2015 will include improvements to the 

initial (AEO2014) POLYSYS integration

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014 14

• AEO2014 marked the first instance of full POLYSYS 

integration. POLYSYS will continue to run as an integrated 

submodule of the Renewable Fuels module, with some 

refinements:

– Improving representation of regional planting decisions, reacting to regional prices

– Improved modeling of expectations

– Update of USDA baseline

• POLYSYS, which provides dynamic supply curves for 

agricultural residues and energy crops, is expected to primarily 

be a tool for “high biomass” scenarios. In the Reference case 

world, urban wood/wood waste and (to a lesser extent) forestry 

supply curves tend to meet the vast majority of biomass 

demand.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Trade press indicates that PV costs have continued to decline; 

EIA will review data for 2013 and 2014 to determine if initial 

assumption or learning parameters require updates

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014 15

2012$/kWAC

1

Utility-Scale PV Costs

Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 and LBNL, Utility-Scale Solar 2012. 

1 All costs are reported on an AC basis except the noted LBNL range 

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2014

LBNL capacity-weighted average and range, 

2012$/kWAC

LBNL range, 

2012$/kWDC

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
For more information

16

Chris Namovicz - Team Lead, Renewable Electricity Analysis Team

christopher.namovicz@eia.gov

Gwen Bredehoeft – Lead Renewables Analyst for AEO

gwendolyn.bredehoeft@eia.gov

Fred Mayes

Fred.mayes@eia.gov

Michelle Bowman 

Michelle.bowman@eia.gov

Danielle Lowenthal-Savy

Danielle.lowenthal-savy@eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team 

July 24, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE