U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Buildings Working Group Meeting II

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

October 3, 2019 | Washington, DC

By

Buildings Energy Analysis Team
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Overview

• AEO2020 results overview—delivered energy by fuel

• Comparison with AEO2019

– Model drivers

– Residential and commercial electricity and natural gas consumption

– General Service Lighting definition change

• Revised distributed generation and combined heat and power (CHP) cost 

and performance characteristics

• Commercial distributed generation methodology updated

• Commercial minor fuels and other modeling updates

AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC

October 3, 2019 2
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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AEO2020 Results Overview

3 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC

October 3, 2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Residential sector delivered energy consumption 

quadrillion British thermal units

Commercial sector delivered energy consumption 

quadrillion British thermal units

Electricity continues to be the fastest-growing energy source for 

building use in AEO2020

Source: AEO2020 preliminary

4 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC

October 3, 2019

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CAGR 2019-50

0.6%

-0.4%

-1.6%

-1.6%

electricity

natural gas

petroleum and other liquids

other 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CAGR 2019-50

0.8%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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Comparison with AEO2019

5 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 3, 2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Residential fuel prices

2019 $/MMBtu

Commercial fuel prices

2019 $/MMBtu

End-use fuel prices are lower in AEO2020 than AEO2019

6 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 3, 2019

Sources: AEO2020 preliminary, AEO2019

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

natural gas

electricity AEO2020

AEO2019

AEO2020

AEO2019

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

natural gas

electricity

AEO2020

AEO2019

AEO2020

AEO2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Degree days

Heating and cooling degree days include NOAA historical data and 

short-term forecast, along with 30-year trend through projection period

Sources: AEO2020 preliminary, AEO2019. NOAA refers to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

7 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 3, 2019

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

cooling

AEO2019

AEO2020 

heating

AEO2019

AEO2020 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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Total households

millions

Macroeconomic Activity Module projects fewer housing starts

Sources: AEO2020 preliminary, AEO2019

8 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 3, 2019

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2020

AEO2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Commercial floorspace

billion square feet

Commercial floorspace projection closely resembles AEO2019

Sources: AEO2020 preliminary, AEO2019

9 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 3, 2019

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2020

AEO2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Residential purchased electricity consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Residential natural gas consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Lower electricity prices and higher heating and cooling degree days 

drive changes in residential consumption

Sources: AEO2020 preliminary, AEO2019

10 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 3, 2019

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2020

AEO2019

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2020

AEO2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Commercial purchased electricity consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Commercial natural gas consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Lower electricity and natural gas prices and lower combined heat and 

power (CHP) growth drive changes in commercial consumption

Sources: AEO2020 preliminary, AEO2019

11 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 3, 2019

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2020

AEO2019

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2020

AEO2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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Residential delivered lighting energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Definition of General Service Lighting narrowed to exclude 

technology types such as reflector lamps

Sources: AEO2020 preliminary, AEO2019

12 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 3, 2020

Commercial delivered lighting energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2020

AEO2019

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2020

AEO2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Residential lighting shares by bulb type

percent of lightbulb stock

Commercial lighting shares by bulb type

percent of lighting service demand met

Definition of General Service Lighting narrowed to exclude 

technology types such as reflector lamps

Source: AEO2020 preliminary

13 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 3, 2019

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

incandescent/halogen CFL LED linear fluorescent other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

incandescent/halogen CFL

LED A-line/reflector linear fluorescent

LED integrated luminaire other
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Revised residential distributed generation and combined heat and 

power (CHP) cost and performance characteristics

Updated report data will be available at: www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/distrigen

14 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC

October 3, 2019

Technology 

type

Year of 

introduction

Average generating 

capacity (kWDC) Electrical efficiency

Combined efficiency 

(elec. + thermal)

Installed capital cost 

(2018$ per kWDC) Service life (years)

AEO2019 AEO2020 AEO2019 AEO2020 AEO2019 AEO2020 AEO2019 AEO2020 AEO2019 AEO2020

Solar 

photovoltaic

2015 6.2 6.0 0.17 0.17 N/A N/A $4,156 $4,020 30 25

2020 6.7 7.3 0.20 0.20 N/A N/A $2,998 $2,782 30 25

2030 7.4 9.3 0.26 0.26 N/A N/A $2,030 $1,896 30 30

2040 8.0 10.0 0.28 0.28 N/A N/A $1,701 $1,627 30 30

2050 8.4 10.1 0.28 0.28 N/A N/A $1,577 $1,547 30 30

Fuel cell 2015 5.0 5.0 0.40 0.40 0.86 0.83 $12,604 $10,576 30 10

2020 5.0 5.0 0.40 0.43 0.85 0.86 $10,849 $9,739 30 10

2030 5.0 5.0 0.41 0.44 0.83 0.86 $8,442 $9,539 30 10

2040 5.0 5.0 0.42 0.45 0.83 0.87 $7,197 $9,347 30 10

2050 5.0 5.0 0.42 0.46 0.83 0.88 $7,197 $9,162 30 10

Wind 2015 5.0 10.0 0.13 0.13 N/A N/A $8,831 $8,400 30 20

2020 5.0 10.0 0.13 0.13 N/A N/A $8,805 $8,400 30 20

2030 5.0 10.0 0.13 0.13 N/A N/A $8,261 $8,400 30 20

2040 5.0 10.0 0.13 0.13 N/A N/A $7,776 $8,400 30 20

2050 5.0 10.0 0.13 0.13 N/A N/A $7,776 $8,400 30 20
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Revised commercial distributed generation and combined heat and 

power (CHP) cost and performance characteristics

15 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC

October 3, 2019

Updated report data will be available at: www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/distrigen

Technology 

type

Year of 

introduction

Average generating 

capacity (kWDC) Electrical efficiency

Combined efficiency 

(elec. + thermal)

Installed capital cost 

(2018$ per kWDC) Service life (years)

AEO2019 AEO2020 AEO2019 AEO2020 AEO2019 AEO2020 AEO2019 AEO2020 AEO2019 AEO2020

Solar 

photovoltaic

2015 28 35 0.17 0.17 N/A N/A $3,681 $3,348 30 25

2020 37 42 0.20 0.20 N/A N/A $2,732 $2,532 30 25

2030 38 53 0.26 0.26 N/A N/A $1,881 $2,007 30 30

2040 40 58 0.28 0.28 N/A N/A $1,711 $1,833 30 30

2050 41 62 0.28 0.30 N/A N/A $1,631 $1,716 30 30

Fuel cell 2015 200 250 0.36 0.56 0.58 0.59 $5,738 $5,757 20 10

2020 200 250 0.36 0.56 0.58 0.61 $5,037 $5,297 20 10

2030 200 250 0.37 0.57 0.58 0.62 $3,867 $5,196 20 10

2040 200 250 0.38 0.59 0.60 0.64 $2,961 $5,068 20 10

2050 200 250 0.38 0.60 0.60 0.65 $2,961 $4,967 20 10

Natural gas 

engine

2015 373 373 0.33 0.29 0.85 0.83 $2,288 $2,406 20 30

2020 373 373 0.33 0.29 0.85 0.82 $2,298 $2,396 20 30

2030 373 373 0.33 0.29 0.85 0.82 $2,189 $2,390 20 30

2040 373 373 0.33 0.30 0.85 0.82 $2,091 $2,377 20 30

2050 373 373 0.33 0.30 0.85 0.85 $2,091 $2,371 20 30

Oil-fired 

engine

2015 340 350 0.33 0.34 0.77 0.93 $2,119 $2,500 20 30

2020 340 350 0.33 0.34 0.77 0.93 $2,130 $2,486 20 30

2030 340 350 0.33 0.34 0.77 0.94 $2,028 $2,468 20 30

2040 340 350 0.33 0.35 0.77 0.96 $1,937 $2,449 20 30

2050 340 350 0.33 0.35 0.77 0.96 $1,937 $2,440 20 30
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Revised commercial distributed generation and combined heat and 

power (CHP) cost and performance characteristics (continued)

Updated report data will be available at: www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/distrigen

16 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC

October 3, 2019

Technology 

type

Year of 

introduction

Average generating 

capacity (kWDC) Electrical efficiency

Combined efficiency 

(elec. + thermal)

Installed capital cost 

(2018$ per kWDC) Service life (years)

AEO2019 AEO2020 AEO2019 AEO2020 AEO2019 AEO2020 AEO2019 AEO2020 AEO2019 AEO2020

Natural gas 

turbine

2015 1210 1210 0.24 0.30 0.86 0.77 $2,338 $1,977 20 30

2020 1222 1210 0.25 0.30 0.86 0.75 $2,350 $1,964 20 30

2030 1247 1210 0.25 0.30 0.87 0.78 $2,237 $1,937 20 30

2040 1272 1210 0.26 0.31 0.87 0.79 $2,137 $1,912 20 30

2050 1272 1210 0.26 0.31 0.87 0.78 $2,137 $1,899 20 30

Natural gas 

microturbine

2015 250 200 0.26 0.30 0.62 0.63 $3,579 $3,203 20 10

2020 253 200 0.26 0.30 0.62 0.62 $3,579 $3,178 20 10

2030 258 200 0.27 0.31 0.63 0.64 $3,425 $3,127 20 10

2040 263 200 0.27 0.31 0.64 0.62 $3,271 $3,078 20 10

2050 263 200 0.27 0.32 0.64 0.65 $3,271 $3,054 20 10

Wind 2015 100 2000 0.13 0.13 N/A N/A $6,203 $2,803 30 20

2020 100 2000 0.13 0.13 N/A N/A $5,756 $2,738 30 25

2030 100 2000 0.13 0.13 N/A N/A $4,877 $2,738 30 25

2040 100 2000 0.13 0.13 N/A N/A $4,142 $2,738 30 25

2050 100 2000 0.13 0.13 N/A N/A $4,142 $2,738 30 25
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Commercial distributed generation methodology updated

• Technologies modeled include solar PV, CHP, and wind

• Re-estimated parameters for the shape, speed, and maximum levels of 

distributed generation diffusion to calibrate distributed generation model builds 

to recent historical data

• More electricity rate variation into niches for internal rate of return calculations

• Revised assumptions, such as diffusion start year, treatment of existing and 

new buildings, and PV-eligible roof space by building size

As a result of the update, PV grows more quickly in the short term, but growth 

levels off in the long term. Wind and CHP grow more slowly.

AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC

October 3, 2019 17
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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2020

AEO2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2020

AEO2019

Residential PV capacity

gigawatts-direct current (GW-DC)

Commercial PV capacity

gigawatts-direct current (GW-DC)

Revised cost and performance characteristics, lower electricity prices, 

and model updates affect buildings PV projections

Sources: AEO2020 preliminary, AEO2019

18 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 3, 2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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AEO2020 commercial distributed generation capacity

gigawatts-direct current (GW-DC)

AEO2019 commercial distributed generation capacity

gigawatts-direct current (GW-DC)

Commercial combined heat and power (CHP) grows more slowly, and 

PV assumes a larger share of distributed generation growth

Source: AEO2020 preliminary, AEO2019

19 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 3, 2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

solar PV

CHP

other

wind

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

solar PV

CHP

other

wind
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Commercial minor fuels and other updates

• Updated commercial minor fuel parameters based on latest State Energy Data 

System (SEDS) historical consumption data and other historical data

• Revised base-year heat pump stocks and unit energy consumption (UEC) using 

U.S. Census Bureau split of air-source versus ground-source equipment

• Incorporated final Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) wood 

consumption published after AEO2019 modeling

• Revised sub-census division distributed generation niches (based on average 

RECS electricity rates) and distributed generation interconnection limitations

• Updated equipment-level energy efficiency rebate assumptions based on 

incentives data from the Consortium for Energy Efficiency, ENERGY STAR, 

NEEP, and past contractor reports

AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC

October 3, 2019 20
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For more buildings information

Kevin Jarzomski | phone: 202-586-3208

| email: kevin.jarzomski@eia.gov

Behjat Hojjati | phone: 202-586-1068

| email: behjat.hojjati@eia.gov

Meera Fickling | phone: 571-241-7860

| email: meera.fickling@eia.gov

Courtney Sourmehi | phone: 202-586-0022

| email: courtney.sourmehi@eia.gov

Erin Boedecker | phone: 202-586-4791

Team Lead | email: erin.boedecker@eia.gov

21 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 3, 2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/

State Energy Data System | http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Residential Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/

Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/

22 AEO2020 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 3, 2019