WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

1

July 30, 2014

MEMORANDUM 

TO: John Conti

Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis

Jim Diefenderfer

Director, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis

FROM: Coal and Uranium Analysis Team

SUBJECT: AEO2015 Coal Working Group Meeting I Summary 

Attendees (39)

Name Affiliation

Greg Adams (Moderator) US DOE: EIA

Jim Diefenderfer

Tyler Hodge

Elias Johnson

Ayaka Jones

Eric Krall

Laura Martin

Mike Mellish

Kate Schramm

Sundar Thapa

Kislear, Jordan US DOE: FE/HQ

Benitez, Jose US DOE: FE/NETL

Pickenpaugh, Gavin US DOE: FE/NETL

Remson, Donald US DOE: FE/NETL

Bergman, Aaron US DOE: HQ

Schoeberlein, David US DOE: HQ

Gehlhar, Mark US DOI: OSM

Rockwell, Joshua US DOI: OSM

Pierce, Paul US DOI: USGS

Gigliotti, Stephen US DOL: MSHA

Lundgren, Carl US DOL: MSHA

Moxness, Greg US DOL: MSHA

Fisher, Brian US EPA

Meroney, William US EPA

Stevens, William US EPA

Blumenfeld, Andy Arch Coal, Inc.

Holmes, Mike Energy & Environmental Research Center

Kumar, Abhishek Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.

Marvin, Katie Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.

Medine, Emily Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.

Heller, Jamie Hellerworx, Inc.

Venkatesh, Boddu ICF International

Coleman, Leslie National Mining Association

Georgia, Paul National Mining Association

Evans, Carolyn Norfolk Southern Corporation

Peters, Jamie Union Pacific Railroad

Marmon, Greg Wood Mackenzie

Echter, Dana Xcel Energy

Shattuck, Paul Xcel Energy
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

2

AEO2015

EIA staff informed the coal working group participants that the AEO2015 will be a shorter, interim 

edition of the Annual Energy Outlook, and is scheduled for release in late 2014. The AEO2015 will 

include a smaller set of cases that will include the Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and 

High Oil Price cases, and perhaps one or two additional cases. The shorter edition this year will include 

tables for these cases, along with brief discussions of the results. The AEO2016 will be the next full 

edition of the Annual Energy Outlook, with a planned spring 2016 release date. 

CAA 111(b): New Source Performance Standards

EIA staff indicated that EPA’s draft new source performance standards for electric generating plants

(CAA 111(b)) are expected to be finalized in January 2015. Because this date falls outside of the 

AEO2015 cycle, EIA plans to defer representation of CAA 111(b) until the AEO2016 projection cycle. 

The draft standards establish CO2 emission rate limits for new fossil-fueled power plants, which 

essentially require the use of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology at new coal-fired

generating. A couple of participants indicated that EIA may want to consider representing these 

requirements in the AEO2015, as the draft rule specifically indicates that the requirements are retroactive 

and are currently effective. EIA staff indicated that they would consider this recommendation, but 

would likely stay with the current proposal to defer representation of CAA 111(b) in the AEO 

Reference case until the AEO2016 cycle, as EIA’s standard policy for its Reference case projections 

is to include only legislation and environmental regulations that have been finalized prior to the 

date that modeling runs have been completed. 

CAA 111(d): Proposed Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources

EIA staff indicated that EPA’s draft rule (Clean Power Plan) for reducing CO2 emissions from existing 

power plants is not expected to be finalized until June 2015. Because this date falls outside of the 

AEO2015 cycle, EIA plans to defer representation of CAA 111(d) the AEO Reference case until the 

AEO2016 projection cycle. Participants provided a few comments regarding their understanding of 

EPA’s Clean Power Plan. One participant indicated that States are not restricted to using the four building 

blocks discussed in EPA’s Clean Power plan for achieving proposed reductions of CO2 emissions. 

Another participant indicated that one of the supporting documents for the Clean Power Plan discusses

the possibility of using mass-based CO2 emission limits instead of rate-based limits. Another participant 

indicated EPA expects to receive many comments on the draft of their Clean Power Plan. EIA staff 

indicated that they would take a closer look at the Clean Power Plan supporting document that 

discusses the rate- and mass-based approaches, and would follow up with staff from the EPA. 

Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS)

EIA staff indicated that plans are to represent MATS in the same manner as it was represented in the 

AEO2014, with compliance required by the beginning of 2016. One participant indicated that many 

generators may actually be given a compliance extension until 2017. EIA staff indicated that this is 

something that they would look into further, particularly in cases where reported retrofits of 

environmental equipment to EIA, such as FGD scrubbers needed for MATS compliance, are for 

years later than 2016. 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

3

Reported Coal-Fired Capacity Additions and Retirements

EIA staff indicated that current data collected on Form EIA-860 indicate only 584 megawatts (MW) of 

planned coal-fired capacity additions (the 522-MW Kemper County IGCC plant in MS and the 62-MW

Spiritwood plant in ND), and 28 gigawatts of reported coal-fired capacity retirements for the years 2012

through 2021. One participant asked about whether or not EIA would be providing any preliminary 

updates regarding reported data on planned capacity additions and retirements. EIA staff indicated that 

there have been some delays in EIA’s data collection efforts this year due to OMB clearance issues, 

but further updates for planned capacity additions and retirements for the AEO2015 are expected 

based on new monthly respondent data reported on the Form EIA-860M survey. 

Rail Transportation Issues

One participant asked whether or not EIA expects any impacts in their AEO2015 projections regarding 

transportation issues encountered during the past year. EIA staff indicated that the recent rail-related 

issues were primarily considered to be a short-term issue and have been factored into EIA’s short-term 

outlook for regional coal production. In the longer term, EIA projects that coal transportation rates will 

remain relatively flat on a constant dollar basis, increasing at the general rate of inflation. Another 

participant indicated that a flat long-term outlook for coal transportation rates on a constant dollar basis

seems reasonable. However, this participant noted that going forward coal may become an increasingly 

lower priority with other types of rail shipments, such as oil and intermodal (truck trailers and containers) 

gaining in importance, leading to more periodic disruptions in coal rail service such as was experienced 

during the winter/spring of 2014. Another participant indicated that all rail service may experience 

increasing levels of congestion during the next few years if trains carrying shipments of crude oil are 

required to travel at reduced speeds due to safety concerns. In the long term, conditions should improve as 

newer and safer tanker cars are introduced into the fleet. With the exception of the short-term impacts 

on regional coal production represented in EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, the impact of the 

recent rail service issues are not expected to significantly affect EIA’s longer-term outlook for coal 

transportation rates and distribution patterns. The projected levels of coal transportation rates in 

the AEO2015 are expected to be similar to the AEO2014.

U.S. Coal Exports

EIA staff noted that the most recent near-term projections for coal exports are trending considerably 

below the AEO2014 export projections. Recent declines in international coking coal prices lead to further 

declines in projections of U.S. coking coal exports in 2014 and 2015 in the July 2014 edition of EIA’s 

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), although continuing higher demand for coal for generation in 

Europe, particularly for Germany, leads to a slight uptick in EIA’s projections for steam coal exports in 

2015. EIA staff indicated that the AEO2015 projections for coal exports will factor in this less 

optimistic outlook for coal exports in the near term, although some growth in U.S. coal exports is 

still expected in the longer term outlook.