U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2014

2

nd Coal Working Group

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team

September 26, 2013| Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Topics for discussion

• Recap issues raised during previous meeting

• Preliminary Reference case run results

• Projected consumption (CTL), production, exports, and prices

• Changes in release cycles for EIA’s AEO and IEO

2

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Issues from Previous CWG Meeting

3

• 3% Carbon Adder for Coal Capacity

• Regional Haze

• Aging Coal Fleet Performance and Replacement

• Metallurgical Coal

• Side Cases

• Planned Capacity Additions

• Illinois Basin Coal Projections (vs. Northern Appalachia)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
3% Carbon Adder for Coal Capacity

4

• Applicability to emission control retrofits

– Applies only to non-CO2 emission control retrofits

• How it affects the cost of capital

– Direct adder, e.g., increases from 12% to 15%

• Basis for the adder

– Approximates $15 per ton of CO2 generally assumed by utilities in IRPs, etc.

• Impact on results

– Refer to “No Greenhouse Gas Concern” case results in AEO2013

• Applicability in out-years once EPA New Source Performance 

Standards (NSPS) in place

– EIA will follow up during AEO2015 review to reflect published EPA NSPS

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Regional Haze

5

• Inclusion of any assumptions regarding implementation of 

western region BART/regional haze rules

– Not explicitly covered

– However, planned retrofits at affected plants included based on EIA survey 

responses

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Aging Coal Fleet Performance and 

Replacement

6

• Question regarding retirement/replacement with the average 

age of coal fleet at approximately 60 years

– No change in modeling assumptions, which include a $9/kW-Year ($2012) 

increase in annual, fixed operating and maintenance costs at 30 years of age

• Cycling with respect to competition with intermittent wind 

resources noted as a possible concern 

– EIA staff updated spinning reserve methodology to account for system cost of 

intermittent resources

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Metallurgical Coal

7

• Question about role of exchange rates in the forecast

– NEMS does not incorporate exchange rate modeling at this time

• Question about competitiveness with Australian met coal and 

impact on projections

– Feedback on degree to which quality of U.S. met coal supports export trends 

sought by EIA 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Side Cases

8

• EIA staff verified information at the last meeting 

– Pulverized coal with carbon capture technology are cheaper than IGCC

– The $5,400/kW nuclear capital cost assumption is appropriate in the $25 

carbon price case

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Planned Capacity Additions

9

• Two Elk under construction for 10 years

– Plant will no longer be included in planned additions

• Spiritwood capacity at 99 MW but EIA assumes 62 MW based 

on reported, contractual value as reported on the EIA-860

– Modeled capacity to remain at EIA-860 reported amount of 62 MW

• Taylorville noted as being canceled

– Plant is not included in planned additions; awaiting EIA-860 filing for 2013

• Medicine Bow uncertainty around capacity available to the grid

– Plant is not included in planned additions; indications are that no electric power will 

be sold to the grid

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
10

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860 “Annual Electric Generator Report”

Preliminary AEO2014: Coal-Fired Capacity Additions

(megawatts)

FACILITY 

CODE PLANT NAME GENERATOR ID STATE

PLANT 

TYPE

ENERGY 

SOURCE

START 

YEAR

START 

MONTH

SUMMER 

CAPABILITY

55856 Prairie State Generatng Station PC1 IL PC BIT 2012 6 812

56808 Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center 1 VA PC BIT 2012 7 600

55856 Prairie State Generatng Station PC2 IL PC BIT 2012 11 817

2721 Cliffside 6 NC PC BIT 2012 12 825

56564 John W Turk Jr Power Plant 1 AR PC SUB 2012 12 609

56611 Sandy Creek Energy Station S01 TX PC SUB 2013 5 937

1004 Edwardsport ST,CT1,CT2 IN IGCC BIT 2013 6 569

57037 Kemper County IGCC Project 1A,1B,1C MS IGCC LIG 2014 5 593

7570 Spiritwood 1 ND PC LIG 2014 11 62

55360 Two Elk Generating Station GEN1 WY PC WC 2016 12 275

Included as existing capacity for 2012 in AEO2014: 3,663

Included as planned capacity additions in AEO2014: 2,436

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Illinois Basin Coal Projections

11

• Staff reviewed transportation rates and productivity 

assumptions for these two region in CMM

– Review of productivity assumptions resulted in upward revision of trend leading 

to increased use of ILB coal in the revised Reference case

– Staff also examined the impact of higher transportation rates assumed for new 

shipments between a coal type and a coal demand region

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Key results for the AEO2014 Reference case

12

• Comparisons relative to AEO2013HR8 which included the impacts 

of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 passed on 1/1/2013.

• Coal is no longer the leading fuel for U.S. electricity generation in 

2040. Coal’s share of total generation decreases over time to 32% 

in 2040 from 37% in 2012 (compared to 35% in AEO2013HR8).

• Coal producers in the Interior region gain share while Appalachia 

loses share of total U.S. coal production. From 2012 to 2040, the 

Appalachian region's share of total coal production (on a Btu basis) 

falls from about 38% to 29%.

• Nearly all of the 44 GW of coal-fired capacity retirements (25 GW 

planned) occur by 2016 largely because of the combination of 

MATS, relatively low natural gas prices, and relatively low electricity 

demand.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Key results for the AEO2014 Reference case

13

• Expanding development of shale gas resources drives increased 

production and competitive prices for natural gas

• A short-term recovery for coal occurs followed by a decline in 

consumption in 2015 and 2016 as MATS takes effect, resulting in a 

net gain of 37 million tons for coal in 2016 compared to 2012. After 

2016, coal consumption rises, peaking in 2027 with a small decline 

thereafter. 

• 2.8 GW of additions (2.4 GW planned)

• Delivered coal prices increase gradually through 2040 at an 

average rate of 0.9% per year (on a per ton basis) due to declining 

coal mine productivity and increasing transportation costs

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Legislation and regulation assumptions

14

• Current laws and regulations addressed in the AEO2014 Reference Case

- Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)

- Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) by 2016

- State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

- California’s cap-and-trade program and the Northeast’s RGGI program

- Uncertainty with respect to CO2 policy addressed through a 3% higher cost of 

capital for new coal-fired power plants and capital investment projects at 

existing coal-fired power plants

• Issues not addressed in the AEO2014 Reference Case

– CO2 New Source Performance Standards (NSPS)

– Cooling water intake regulations per section 316(b) of the Clean Water Act

– Regional haze

– Coal combustion residuals

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Natural gas and coal prices to the electric power sector,

1980-2040

15

2012 dollars per million Btu

Natural Gas

Coal

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History 2012 Projections

AEO2013 HR8

AEO2014

AEO2013 HR8

AEO2014

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Natural gas and coal consumption, 1980-2040

16

quadrillion Btu

Natural Gas

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013 HR8

History 2012 Projections

Coal

AEO2014

AEO2014

AEO2013 HR8

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Coal consumption by sector, 1970-2040

17

million short tons

Electricity

Other

Total

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2012 Projections

AEO2013 HR8 

Electricity

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2040

18

billion kilowatthours

Coal

Petroleum

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Renewables

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Note: Includes generation from plants in both the electric power and end-use sectors.

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review; 

Projections: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a).

History 2012 Projections

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Electricity generation by fuel, 1990-2040

19

Oil and other 

liquids

Coal

Nuclear

Renewables

Natural gas

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

36%

15%

16%

32%

1%

25% 30% 

13% 12% 

19% 19% 

42% 37%

1% 1%

36%

Billion kilowatthours

History Projections

2011 2012

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

30%

17%

17%

35%

1%

AEO2013 HR8:

2040

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Comparison of electric generation to AEO2013

20

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

• Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

(300)

(200)

(100)

- 

100 

200 

300 

400 

Billion kWh

OGS-Other

Renewable

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

Total
21

Average capacity utilization of natural gas combined cycle and 

coal generating capacity, 2008-2040

percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Natural Gas AEO2013 HR8

AEO2014

AEO2013 HR8

AEO2014

Coal

2012

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
22

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

*MATS compliance assumed to begin

Electric Net Summer Generating Capacity by Fuel, 2008-2040 

(gigawatts)

Fuel 2008 2011 2012 2015 2016* 2020 2030 2040 2040

Coal 311 318 312 296 274 272 271 271 277

 Electric Power Sector 308 315 309 293 271 269 268 268 272

 End-Use Sectors 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4

Natural Gas 335 358 367 381 389 399 508 637 572

Petroleum 115 103 99 94 94 87 79 75 63

Nuclear Power 101 101 102 100 101 103 103 105 114

Renewable Sources 117 142 158 188 191 193 201 221 251

Other (includes 

pumped storage)

25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 25

Total 1004 1047 1064 1085 1073 1080 1188 1335 1302

AEO2013

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Comparison of electric capacity to AEO2013

23

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

• Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

(60)

(40)

(20)

- 

20 

40 

60 

80 

100 

GW

OGS-Other

Renewable

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

Total
24

Net summer coal-fired generating capacity in the electric power 

sector by coal demand region, 2012 and 2040

gigawatts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2012

AEO2013 HR8

AEO2014

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

U.S. Total (gigawatts)

2012: 309

AEO2014: 268

AEO2013 HR8:272

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Cumulative Capacity Additions, 2013-2040

25

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables

AEO2014

AEO2013 HR8

Gigawatts

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Reported Coal Retirements By Year 

26

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

AEO 2013 (2011 Form EIA-860 data)

AEO 2014 (Form EIA-860 as reflected in 

NEMS 9/20/13)

Early 

Release 

2012 Data 

Gigawatts

AEO 2013: 27 GW (20 GW Excluding 2012) 

AEO 2014: 34 GW (25 GW Excluding 2012) 

Total Reported Coal Capacity Retirements 

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Cumulative Plant Retirements, 2013-2040

27

44 42

25

39

8

7

5

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

AEO2014 AEO2013 HR8

Nuclear

Combustion Turbine

Oil/Gas Steam

Coal

gigawatts

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013
28

Cumulative coal-fired capacity retirements by coal demand 

region, 2013-2040

gigawatts

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

AEO2013 HR8

AEO2014

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

U.S. Total (gigawatts)

AEO2014: 44

AEO2013 HR8: 42

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
29

Cumulative SO2 scrubber and DSI retrofits, 2013-2040

gigawatts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013 HR8

AEO2013 HR8

AEO2014 

AEO2014 

DSI

SO2 Scrubbers

2016

• AEO2014 allows ESP upgrades for certain eligible plants.

• DSI and fabric filter costs were updated.

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Coal production by region, 1970-2040

30

million short tons

Appalachia

Interior

Western

AEO2013 HR8 

Total

Total U.S.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2012 Projections

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Average annual growth in coal mining labor 

productivity for selected supply regions (percent)

31

Coal Supply Region 1980-1990 1990-2000 2001-2011 2006-2011 2011-2012 AEO2014

2011-2040

AEO2013

2011-2040

Northern Appalachia 5.4 5.5 -2.5 -4.2 -3.6 -1.3 -1.2

Central Appalachia 7.3 4.4 -5.9 -6.3 -3.8 -3.2 -3.6

Eastern Interior 4.8 3.7 -1.6 -0.6 5.8 0.1 -0.6

Gulf Lignite 2.6 2.4 -2.0 -5.7 -4.2 -1.0 -2.3

Dakota Lignite 6.0 1.0 -3.4 -6.5 -4.5 -1.7 -0.9

Western Montana 4.6 2.0 -3.6 -5.7 -11.7 -1.7 -1.7

WY, Northern Powder 

River Basin 7.5 3.2 -3.8 -4.2 -5.8 -1.6 -1.7

WY, Southern Powder 

River Basin 7.2 4.9 -3.2 -3.4 -6.6 -1.6 -1.7

Rocky Mountain 7.8 5.5 -4.8 -5.5 2.9 -2.6 -1.9

U.S. Average 7.1 6.2 -2.7 -3.7 0.1 -1.1 -1.4

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report; and Mine Safety and Health 

Administration, Form 7000-2, “Quarterly Mine and Employment and Coal Production Report;” 

Projections: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 Reference case.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Coal production, AEO2014 vs. AEO 2013 in 2040 (and 2012) 

(million short tons)

32

233

6 – 7 (13)

62

31 – 31 (28)

0 – 1 (2)

219 – 169 (130)

151 – 182 (127)

85 – 87 (148)

15 – 13 (20)

60 – 56 (48)

34 - 33 (30)

25 – 34 (45)

436 – 474 (388)*

5 – 3 (2)**

60 – 73 (36)

U.S. Total: 

1,124 – 1,163 (1,016)

Source: 2012: Mine Safety and Health Administration, Form 7000-2, “Quarterly Mine and Employment and Coal

Production Report;” 2040: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

* Includes production from all mines in 

Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.

** Includes production from mines in both 

Alaska and Washington.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Appalachian coal production, 1970-2040

33

million short tons

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Northern Appalachia

Central Appalachia

Southern Appalachia

AEO2014

AEO2013 HR8

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

Except for Appalachian total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

History 2012 Projections

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Interior coal production, 1970-2040

34

million short tons

AEO2014

AEO2013 HR8

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Eastern Interior

Gulf Lignite

Western Interior

History 2012 Projections

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

Except for Interior total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Western coal production, 1970-2040

35

million short tons

AEO2014

AEO2013 HR8

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Wyoming PRB

Other West

History 2011 Projections

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

Except for Western total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Average minemouth coal prices by region, 1980-2040

36

2012 dollars per short ton

Appalachia

Interior

West

U.S. Average

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

2012

Source: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
U.S. Coal Exports, 1995-2040

37

million short tons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coking

Steam

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Quarterly Coal Report; 

Projections: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

History Projections

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Coal exports by major supply region, 2010-2040

38

million short tons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Western

Appalachia

Total

Source: 2010-2011: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Distribution Report;

2012-2040: Preliminary AEO2014 (NEMS run ref2014.d092413a); and AEO2013 HR8.

Interior

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Changes in release cycles for EIA’s AEO and IEO

39

• To focus more resources on rapidly 

changing energy markets and how 

they might evolve over the next few 

years, the U.S. Energy Information 

Administration is revising the 

schedule and approach for 

production of the International 

Energy Outlook (IEO) and the 

Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).

• Starting with IEO2013, which was 

released in July, 2013, EIA adopted 

a two-year production cycle for 

both the IEO and AEO.

• Under this approach, a full edition 

of the IEO and AEO will be 

produced in alternating years and 

an interim, shorter edition of each 

will completed in the “off” years.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

Washington, DC, September 26, 2013

2014 2015

International 

Energy 

Outlook

Interim Edition will be 

released in mid 2014, focusing 

on the liquids projection, which 

is used as part of the AEO2014. 

Summary tables and a short 

analysis will be included. 

Full Edition will be released 

in the spring 2015

Annual 

Energy 

Outlook

Full Edition will be released 

in spring 2014, including 

analysis of energy issues and 

many alternative scenarios. 

Interim Edition will be 

released in late 2014 or early 

2015 and will only include the 

Reference, Low and High 

Economic Growth, and Low 

and High Oil Price cases. The 

shorter version will include 

tables for these cases and 

short discussions. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
40

For more information

greg.adams@eia.gov, (202) 586-7343

ayaka.jones@eia.gov, (202) 586-0998

diane.kearney@eia.gov, (202) 586-2415

michael.mellish@eia.gov, (202) 586-2136

vlad.dorjets@eia.gov, (202) 586-3141

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

EIA Information Center

InfoCtr@eia.gov

Our average response time is within three 

business days.

(202) 586-8800

24-hour automated information line about EIA 

and frequently asked questions.