U.S. Energy Information Administration | Effects of Increased Natural Gas Exports on Domestic Energy Markets 28

Appendix B. Summary Tables
Table B1. U.S. Annual Average Values from 2015 to 2025

low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/

baseline slow rapid slow rapid baseline slow rapid slow rapid baseline slow rapid slow rapid baseline slow rapid slow rapid

NATURAL GAS VOLUMES (Tcf)

 Net Exports (1.90) (0.29) 0.11 0.17 1.74 (1.32) 0.32 0.70 0.79 2.35 (2.72) (1.17) (0.88) (0.73) 0.66 (2.00) (0.38) 0.01 0.07 1.64

 gross imports 3.62 3.70 3.70 3.74 3.76 3.19 3.25 3.26 3.27 3.31 4.27 4.42 4.53 4.48 4.68 3.70 3.78 3.79 3.82 3.85

 gross exports 1.72 3.41 3.81 3.91 5.50 1.87 3.56 3.96 4.06 5.65 1.56 3.25 3.65 3.75 5.34 1.70 3.39 3.79 3.89 5.49

 Dry Production 23.27 24.15 24.37 24.42 25.33 26.24 27.28 27.51 27.57 28.41 19.80 20.72 20.78 20.99 21.83 23.85 24.90 25.10 25.22 26.20

 shale gas 8.34 8.96 9.17 9.13 9.90 11.90 12.66 12.87 12.89 13.64 3.88 4.42 4.63 4.53 5.22 8.73 9.49 9.70 9.69 10.51

 other 14.93 15.18 15.20 15.29 15.43 14.34 14.61 14.65 14.68 14.77 15.91 16.30 16.15 16.45 16.62 15.12 15.41 15.39 15.53 15.70

 Delivered Volumes (1) 23.34 22.57 22.38 22.37 21.68 25.58 24.94 24.79 24.75 24.00 20.82 20.13 19.90 19.94 19.35 23.99 23.37 23.17 23.22 22.60

 electric generators 6.81 6.25 6.16 6.11 5.67 8.35 7.94 7.88 7.80 7.30 5.07 4.66 4.55 4.54 4.23 6.99 6.63 6.53 6.54 6.21

 industrial 8.14 8.01 7.95 7.98 7.83 8.55 8.40 8.34 8.37 8.19 7.74 7.58 7.51 7.56 7.38 8.50 8.34 8.27 8.30 8.12

 residential 4.83 4.80 4.79 4.79 4.75 4.94 4.92 4.90 4.91 4.87 4.68 4.63 4.61 4.62 4.57 4.90 4.86 4.85 4.85 4.81

 commercial 3.48 3.44 3.42 3.42 3.37 3.65 3.61 3.59 3.60 3.55 3.27 3.20 3.17 3.18 3.11 3.52 3.46 3.45 3.45 3.39

NATURAL GAS END-USE PRICES (2009$/Mcf)

 residential 11.19 11.63 11.77 11.81 12.33 9.92 10.24 10.37 10.36 10.72 13.23 14.05 14.27 14.42 15.10 11.56 12.09 12.21 12.29 12.87

 commercial 9.23 9.66 9.79 9.83 10.34 7.97 8.28 8.40 8.39 8.74 11.27 12.09 12.31 12.46 13.16 9.60 10.12 10.24 10.31 10.88

 industrial 5.59 6.10 6.25 6.32 6.91 4.41 4.80 4.95 4.94 5.41 7.50 8.40 8.62 8.83 9.59 5.89 6.49 6.63 6.73 7.41

OTHER PRICES

 Natural Gas Wellhead Price (2009$/Mcf) 4.70 5.17 5.30 5.37 5.91 3.56 3.90 4.02 4.03 4.42 6.52 7.41 7.63 7.84 8.64 4.99 5.54 5.66 5.77 6.39

 Henry Hub Price (2009$/MMBtu) 5.17 5.69 5.83 5.91 6.51 3.92 4.29 4.43 4.43 4.87 7.18 8.16 8.41 8.64 9.51 5.49 6.10 6.23 6.35 7.04

 Coal Minemouth Price (2009$/short-ton) 32.67 32.76 32.89 32.89 32.89 32.33 32.69 32.52 32.59 32.77 32.91 33.15 33.10 32.97 33.04 33.23 33.18 33.06 33.33 33.28

 End-Use Electricity Price (2009 cents/KWh) 8.85 8.98 9.00 9.02 9.17 8.56 8.62 8.67 8.64 8.70 9.44 9.64 9.71 9.78 9.97 9.08 9.26 9.27 9.32 9.46

NATURAL GAS REVENUES (B 2009$)

 Export Revenues (2) 9.47 20.64 23.25 25.10 37.74 7.51 16.01 18.17 19.27 28.89 12.83 29.03 32.72 36.09 53.91 10.04 22.11 24.82 26.97 40.81

 Domestic Supply Revenues (3) 160.19 175.25 179.33 181.70 199.21 147.33 159.55 163.65 164.23 177.50 177.88 201.92 206.65 213.21 236.34 171.34 190.13 193.88 197.79 218.78

 production revenues (4) 109.53 125.29 129.41 132.23 150.47 93.68 106.70 111.00 111.90 126.30 129.24 154.00 158.75 165.84 189.27 119.39 138.71 142.53 146.83 168.64

 delivery revenues (5) 50.65 49.97 49.92 49.46 48.74 53.65 52.85 52.65 52.33 51.20 48.64 47.92 47.91 47.37 47.07 51.94 51.41 51.36 50.96 50.14

 Import Revenues (6) 17.44 19.22 19.72 19.92 21.97 12.09 13.35 13.86 13.83 15.35 28.00 31.62 33.03 33.32 36.58 18.96 21.07 21.66 21.94 24.19

END-USE ENERGY EXPENDITURES (B 2009$) 1,398.11 1,409.25 1,410.59 1,414.03 1,424.75 1,368.25 1,375.50 1,377.65 1,379.69 1,386.87 1,448.36 1,465.24 1,469.02 1,473.83 1,482.50 1,485.34 1,498.28 1,499.67 1,504.03 1,514.65

 liquids 913.43 914.55 913.66 915.34 915.15 908.98 909.65 908.67 911.23 911.57 920.92 921.56 921.21 920.98 916.83 971.80 971.63 971.22 972.09 970.98

 natural gas 128.00 133.77 135.27 136.30 142.58 113.26 117.51 119.11 119.24 123.94 151.16 161.03 163.24 165.90 173.42 136.49 143.47 144.71 146.37 153.61

 electricity 349.77 354.03 354.76 355.46 360.10 339.21 341.51 343.06 342.39 344.53 369.28 375.68 377.60 379.98 385.31 369.58 375.70 376.28 378.08 382.59

 coal 6.90 6.91 6.91 6.93 6.92 6.80 6.82 6.81 6.83 6.83 6.99 6.98 6.97 6.97 6.94 7.47 7.49 7.46 7.49 7.46

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion 

Btu) 67.88 67.68 67.59 67.67 67.37 68.58 68.40 68.28 68.37 68.11 66.93 66.63 66.49 66.54 66.20 70.23 70.02 69.89 69.98 69.64

 liquids 36.71 36.74 36.74 36.78 36.78 36.67 36.71 36.71 36.74 36.75 36.71 36.72 36.71 36.74 36.73 38.13 38.18 38.16 38.20 38.20

 natural gas 16.04 15.85 15.76 15.81 15.55 16.76 16.55 16.45 16.49 16.23 15.22 14.97 14.86 14.91 14.65 16.49 16.26 16.16 16.21 15.92

 electricity 13.44 13.41 13.41 13.41 13.37 13.48 13.47 13.46 13.48 13.47 13.32 13.26 13.24 13.22 13.16 13.84 13.81 13.80 13.79 13.75

 coal 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.67 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.76

ELECTRIC GENERATION (billion kWh) 4,456.38 4,441.98 4,437.47 4,441.10 4,422.62 4,492.78 4,484.65 4,477.63 4,483.35 4,471.75 4,391.20 4,369.32 4,360.19 4,356.29 4,329.07 4,594.62 4,577.41 4,572.19 4,572.39 4,552.42

 coal 1,921.25 1,982.85 1,995.33 1,999.09 2,044.09 1,756.51 1,808.90 1,813.78 1,828.74 1,885.58 2,093.76 2,132.35 2,134.49 2,123.82 2,139.82 2,004.09 2,036.83 2,052.54 2,043.09 2,073.78

 gas 999.19 918.42 902.15 898.01 829.83 1,232.25 1,170.15 1,158.31 1,147.99 1,070.38 733.83 671.33 653.23 655.42 608.52 1,036.47 978.19 959.84 964.71 909.63

 nuclear 866.34 866.34 866.34 866.34 866.34 850.50 850.50 850.50 851.17 855.05 866.34 866.34 866.34 866.34 866.34 866.34 866.34 866.34 866.34 866.34

 renewables 610.16 614.27 613.17 617.16 621.29 593.01 594.47 595.24 594.57 599.35 636.27 638.25 645.09 648.70 651.89 626.90 634.74 632.26 636.59 641.06

 other 59.43 60.11 60.48 60.50 61.08 60.51 60.63 59.80 60.87 61.39 61.00 61.04 61.03 62.00 62.50 60.83 61.30 61.21 61.65 61.61

PRIMARY ENERGY (quadrillion Btu)

 Consumption 104.89 104.90 104.87 104.98 104.91 105.24 105.25 105.14 105.32 105.27 104.34 104.16 104.07 104.06 103.75 108.35 108.31 108.25 108.36 108.12

 Imports 28.62 28.75 28.72 28.78 28.90 27.69 27.73 27.77 27.87 27.94 29.78 29.83 29.92 29.98 30.08 30.06 30.22 30.21 30.24 30.28

 Exports 7.06 8.76 9.15 9.26 10.86 7.20 8.92 9.32 9.43 11.03 6.85 8.54 8.93 9.01 10.60 7.10 8.80 9.20 9.30 10.90

 Production 83.14 84.73 85.12 85.28 86.71 84.63 86.34 86.60 86.79 88.26 81.15 82.63 82.84 82.86 84.05 85.16 86.66 87.01 87.18 88.52

ENERGY RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS (including 

liquefaction)(million metric tons) 5,793.73 5,832.23 5,837.67 5,846.39 5,869.62 5,754.36 5,787.50 5,787.31 5,804.76 5,833.35 5,832.09 5,853.23 5,846.94 5,841.58 5,843.35 6,017.09 6,037.23 6,043.12 6,043.12 6,055.08

Reference High Shale EUR Low Shale EUR High Macroeconomic Growth
Table B2. Differential from Base in U.S. Average Annual Values from 2015 to 2025 when Exports are Added

low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/

slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid

NATURAL GAS VOLUMES (Tcf)

 Net Exports 1.61 2.00 2.07 3.64 1.64 2.02 2.11 3.67 1.55 1.84 1.99 3.38 1.62 2.01 2.07 3.64

 gross imports 0.08 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.12 0.14 0.25 0.20 0.41 0.07 0.08 0.12 0.14

 gross exports 1.69 2.09 2.19 3.78 1.69 2.09 2.19 3.78 1.69 2.09 2.19 3.78 1.69 2.09 2.19 3.78

 Dry Production 0.87 1.09 1.15 2.05 1.04 1.28 1.33 2.17 0.92 0.98 1.19 2.04 1.05 1.24 1.37 2.35

 shale gas 0.62 0.82 0.79 1.55 0.77 0.97 0.99 1.74 0.53 0.75 0.65 1.33 0.76 0.97 0.96 1.78

 other 0.25 0.27 0.36 0.50 0.27 0.31 0.34 0.43 0.39 0.24 0.54 0.71 0.29 0.27 0.41 0.57

 Delivered Volumes (1) (0.77) (0.95) (0.97) (1.66) (0.64) (0.80) (0.84) (1.59) (0.69) (0.91) (0.88) (1.46) (0.62) (0.82) (0.77) (1.39)

 electric generators (0.57) (0.66) (0.71) (1.15) (0.42) (0.47) (0.55) (1.05) (0.41) (0.52) (0.53) (0.84) (0.36) (0.46) (0.45) (0.78)

 industrial (0.13) (0.19) (0.16) (0.32) (0.15) (0.22) (0.19) (0.36) (0.15) (0.23) (0.18) (0.35) (0.16) (0.23) (0.20) (0.38)

 residential (0.03) (0.04) (0.04) (0.08) (0.03) (0.04) (0.04) (0.07) (0.05) (0.07) (0.07) (0.11) (0.04) (0.05) (0.05) (0.09)

 commercial (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.11) (0.04) (0.06) (0.05) (0.10) (0.07) (0.09) (0.09) (0.15) (0.05) (0.07) (0.07) (0.13)

NATURAL GAS END-USE PRICES (2009$/Mcf)

 residential 0.44 0.58 0.62 1.14 0.32 0.45 0.44 0.80 0.81 1.03 1.18 1.87 0.53 0.65 0.72 1.31

 commercial 0.43 0.57 0.61 1.12 0.31 0.43 0.42 0.76 0.82 1.04 1.19 1.89 0.52 0.64 0.71 1.28

 industrial 0.51 0.66 0.73 1.32 0.39 0.54 0.54 1.00 0.90 1.13 1.33 2.09 0.61 0.74 0.85 1.52

OTHER PRICES

 Natural Gas Wellhead Price (2009$/Mcf) 0.47 0.60 0.68 1.21 0.33 0.46 0.47 0.86 0.88 1.11 1.32 2.11 0.55 0.67 0.77 1.40

 Henry Hub Price (2009$/MMBtu) 0.52 0.66 0.74 1.34 0.37 0.51 0.51 0.95 0.97 1.22 1.46 2.33 0.60 0.74 0.85 1.54

 Coal Minemouth Price (2009$/short-ton) 0.09 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.36 0.19 0.26 0.44 0.24 0.19 0.06 0.13 (0.05) (0.17) 0.11 0.06

 End-Use Electricity Price (2009 cents/KWh) 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.31 0.06 0.11 0.08 0.14 0.20 0.27 0.34 0.53 0.17 0.19 0.24 0.38

NATURAL GAS REVENUES (B 2009$)

 Export Revenues (2) 11.17 13.77 15.63 28.26 8.50 10.65 11.75 21.38 16.20 19.89 23.25 41.08 12.07 14.79 16.93 30.78

 Domestic Supply Revenues (3) 15.07 19.14 21.51 39.02 12.22 16.32 16.91 30.17 24.04 28.77 35.33 58.46 18.79 22.55 26.46 47.44

 production revenues (4) 15.75 19.88 22.70 40.93 13.02 17.31 18.22 32.62 24.76 29.51 36.60 60.03 19.32 23.13 27.44 49.24

 delivery revenues (5) (0.68) (0.74) (1.19) (1.91) (0.80) (0.99) (1.32) (2.45) (0.72) (0.74) (1.28) (1.58) (0.53) (0.59) (0.98) (1.80)

 Import Revenues (6) 1.78 2.28 2.48 4.53 1.26 1.77 1.74 3.26 3.62 5.03 5.32 8.58 2.12 2.70 2.99 5.24

END-USE ENERGY EXPENDITURES (B 2009$) 11.15 12.49 15.92 26.65 7.26 9.40 11.44 18.63 16.89 20.67 25.47 34.14 12.94 14.33 18.69 29.31

 liquids 1.12 0.22 1.91 1.72 0.68 (0.30) 2.26 2.60 0.64 0.29 0.05 (4.09) (0.18) (0.59) 0.29 (0.82)

 natural gas 5.76 7.26 8.30 14.58 4.26 5.85 5.98 10.68 9.86 12.07 14.73 22.25 6.98 8.22 9.88 17.12

 electricity 4.26 4.99 5.69 10.32 2.31 3.85 3.18 5.32 6.39 8.31 10.70 16.02 6.12 6.70 8.50 13.01

 coal 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.03 (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.04) 0.02 (0.01) 0.02 (0.00)

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion 

Btu) (0.20) (0.29) (0.21) (0.50) (0.18) (0.30) (0.21) (0.47) (0.30) (0.44) (0.38) (0.73) (0.22) (0.34) (0.26) (0.60)

 liquids 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.01 (0.00) 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.07 0.07

 natural gas (0.19) (0.28) (0.23) (0.49) (0.22) (0.32) (0.27) (0.53) (0.25) (0.36) (0.31) (0.57) (0.24) (0.34) (0.28) (0.57)

 electricity (0.03) (0.04) (0.04) (0.08) (0.00) (0.02) (0.00) (0.01) (0.06) (0.08) (0.09) (0.16) (0.03) (0.04) (0.05) (0.09)

 coal (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 (0.01)

ELECTRIC GENERATION (billion kWh) (14.39) (18.91) (15.27) (33.75) (8.13) (15.15) (9.43) (21.02) (21.89) (31.02) (34.92) (62.13) (17.21) (22.43) (22.23) (42.20)

 coal 61.59 74.07 77.84 122.84 52.39 57.26 72.23 129.07 38.59 40.73 30.06 46.06 32.74 48.46 39.01 69.70

 gas (80.76) (97.03) (101.17) (169.36) (62.10) (73.94) (84.25) (161.86) (62.50) (80.59) (78.41) (125.31) (58.28) (76.63) (71.76) (126.84)

 nuclear - - - - 0.00 0.00 0.67 4.55 (0.00) - - (0.00) - - - -

 renewables 4.10 3.00 7.00 11.12 1.46 2.24 1.57 6.35 1.98 8.82 12.43 15.61 7.85 5.36 9.70 14.17

 other 0.67 1.04 1.07 1.64 0.11 (0.71) 0.36 0.88 0.04 0.03 1.00 1.50 0.47 0.38 0.82 0.78

PRIMARY ENERGY (quadrillion Btu)

 Consumption 0.02 (0.02) 0.09 0.02 0.01 (0.09) 0.08 0.03 (0.18) (0.27) (0.28) (0.59) (0.03) (0.10) 0.01 (0.23)

 Imports 0.13 0.10 0.16 0.28 0.04 0.08 0.18 0.26 0.05 0.14 0.20 0.30 0.16 0.15 0.18 0.22

 Exports 1.70 2.09 2.20 3.79 1.72 2.12 2.23 3.83 1.69 2.08 2.16 3.75 1.70 2.10 2.20 3.80

 Production 1.59 1.98 2.14 3.58 1.71 1.96 2.16 3.63 1.47 1.69 1.71 2.90 1.50 1.85 2.02 3.36

ENERGY RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS (including 

liquefaction)(million metric tons) 38.50 43.94 52.67 75.90 33.14 32.94 50.39 78.99 21.14 14.85 9.48 11.26 20.14 26.03 26.03 37.99

Reference High Shale EUR Low Shale EUR High Macroeconomic Growth
Table B3. U.S. Annual Average Values from 2025 to 2035

low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/

baseline slow rapid slow rapid baseline slow rapid slow rapid baseline slow rapid slow rapid baseline slow rapid slow rapid

NATURAL GAS VOLUMES (Tcf)

 Net Exports (0.71) 1.48 1.48 3.52 3.57 0.10 2.16 2.15 4.19 4.20 (2.09) (0.21) (0.33) 1.83 1.76 (0.88) 1.29 1.29 3.21 3.38

 gross imports 2.98 2.99 2.98 3.10 3.09 2.47 2.60 2.61 2.73 2.75 3.99 4.30 4.42 4.41 4.52 3.09 3.11 3.11 3.35 3.21

 gross exports 2.28 4.47 4.47 6.62 6.66 2.57 4.76 4.76 6.91 6.95 1.90 4.09 4.09 6.25 6.28 2.21 4.40 4.40 6.56 6.59

 Dry Production 25.07 26.58 26.66 28.08 28.23 28.73 30.16 30.21 31.50 31.51 20.98 22.22 22.24 23.61 23.89 26.84 28.59 28.55 29.99 30.31

 shale gas 10.96 12.08 12.10 13.10 13.27 15.51 16.70 16.75 17.75 17.74 5.22 6.06 6.13 6.78 6.97 12.19 13.49 13.47 14.49 14.75

 other 14.12 14.49 14.56 14.98 14.96 13.21 13.46 13.47 13.75 13.77 15.76 16.16 16.11 16.83 16.91 14.65 15.10 15.08 15.50 15.56

 Delivered Volumes (1) 23.96 23.22 23.29 22.60 22.70 26.63 25.94 26.00 25.19 25.19 21.41 20.69 20.82 19.97 20.27 25.80 25.29 25.26 24.72 24.85

 electric generators 7.27 6.87 6.95 6.56 6.66 8.89 8.55 8.65 8.11 8.20 5.78 5.28 5.41 4.82 5.08 8.21 8.04 8.03 7.77 7.93

 industrial 8.06 7.82 7.81 7.62 7.60 8.68 8.45 8.42 8.25 8.16 7.47 7.34 7.32 7.20 7.19 8.68 8.43 8.40 8.22 8.18

 residential 4.82 4.78 4.78 4.73 4.74 4.95 4.91 4.91 4.88 4.88 4.64 4.61 4.61 4.56 4.58 5.01 4.97 4.97 4.93 4.94

 commercial 3.68 3.62 3.62 3.56 3.57 3.91 3.85 3.85 3.80 3.80 3.40 3.36 3.37 3.29 3.32 3.75 3.70 3.71 3.66 3.66

NATURAL GAS END-USE PRICES (2009$/Mcf)

 residential 12.90 13.45 13.39 14.05 13.85 11.31 11.66 11.68 12.10 11.98 15.49 15.96 15.83 16.76 16.27 13.70 14.13 14.06 14.67 14.51

 commercial 10.61 11.15 11.09 11.73 11.54 9.01 9.34 9.36 9.75 9.63 13.24 13.71 13.58 14.53 14.02 11.39 11.80 11.73 12.32 12.15

 industrial 6.82 7.43 7.36 8.26 7.98 5.39 5.86 5.88 6.46 6.32 9.30 9.79 9.66 10.69 10.09 7.50 8.05 7.96 8.82 8.59

OTHER PRICES

 Natural Gas Wellhead Price (2009$/Mcf) 5.88 6.42 6.35 7.14 6.88 4.45 4.82 4.83 5.31 5.17 8.25 8.77 8.68 9.69 9.10 6.52 6.98 6.90 7.67 7.43

 Henry Hub Price (2009$/MMBtu) 6.47 7.06 6.99 7.86 7.58 4.90 5.30 5.31 5.85 5.69 9.08 9.66 9.56 10.67 10.02 7.18 7.68 7.60 8.45 8.18

 Coal Minemouth Price (2009$/short-ton) 33.46 33.51 33.43 33.68 33.43 33.20 33.45 33.21 33.42 33.25 33.77 34.11 33.89 33.76 33.85 34.30 34.01 33.95 33.99 34.16

 End-Use Electricity Price (2009 cents/KWh) 9.02 9.17 9.15 9.36 9.28 8.57 8.65 8.67 8.75 8.69 9.86 9.98 9.94 10.25 10.06 9.50 9.67 9.63 9.90 9.78

NATURAL GAS REVENUES (B 2009$)

 Export Revenues (2) 12.81 29.82 29.50 50.58 48.98 10.46 23.42 23.49 38.88 38.06 17.38 39.57 38.98 66.69 62.90 14.21 32.48 32.11 54.16 52.87

 Domestic Supply Revenues (3) 199.45 221.98 220.95 249.66 244.39 184.30 200.41 201.19 220.08 216.08 222.71 243.85 242.19 276.77 266.61 230.96 254.64 252.33 282.66 278.95

 production revenues (4) 147.54 170.77 169.47 200.63 194.52 128.09 145.41 146.06 167.45 162.93 173.25 194.92 193.13 228.66 217.47 175.63 199.91 197.44 230.19 225.48

 delivery revenues (5) 51.91 51.21 51.48 49.03 49.87 56.21 55.00 55.13 52.63 53.14 49.47 48.94 49.06 48.11 49.13 55.33 54.74 54.89 52.47 53.47

 Import Revenues (6) 18.06 19.89 19.65 22.97 22.09 11.69 13.64 13.75 16.04 15.80 33.87 37.50 37.30 41.19 39.73 20.96 22.75 22.52 26.35 24.99

END-USE ENERGY EXPENDITURES (B 2009$) 1,582.70 1,589.93 1,589.52 1,602.94 1,596.44 1,543.37 1,552.01 1,553.43 1,559.62 1,552.40 1,648.34 1,658.55 1,651.04 1,673.64 1,651.53 1,766.94 1,773.78 1,770.57 1,786.74 1,777.53

 liquids 1,036.91 1,032.47 1,033.91 1,030.97 1,030.61 1,032.78 1,033.84 1,034.44 1,031.39 1,028.44 1,044.39 1,046.22 1,041.53 1,044.12 1,034.65 1,156.40 1,151.96 1,151.22 1,149.05 1,147.03

 natural gas 152.47 158.71 157.65 166.94 163.18 136.00 140.12 140.18 146.00 143.37 180.36 184.84 183.01 194.25 187.01 172.16 177.27 175.86 185.15 181.63

 electricity 386.65 392.12 391.36 398.45 396.09 368.01 371.51 372.27 375.68 374.08 416.91 420.84 419.85 428.68 423.29 430.75 436.99 435.94 445.06 441.40

 coal 6.67 6.62 6.61 6.59 6.56 6.57 6.54 6.53 6.54 6.51 6.68 6.64 6.65 6.59 6.58 7.63 7.55 7.54 7.48 7.46

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion 

Btu) 70.29 69.92 69.90 69.59 69.57 71.26 70.89 70.87 70.66 70.61 68.84 68.56 68.64 68.25 68.43 74.98 74.60 74.59 74.25 74.26

 liquids 37.85 37.84 37.82 37.84 37.83 37.75 37.74 37.75 37.81 37.80 37.74 37.71 37.77 37.73 37.81 40.67 40.66 40.65 40.64 40.64

 natural gas 16.26 15.95 15.94 15.69 15.66 17.32 16.97 16.93 16.66 16.58 15.13 14.92 14.92 14.71 14.73 17.13 16.83 16.81 16.58 16.53

 electricity 14.59 14.55 14.56 14.48 14.52 14.61 14.62 14.62 14.61 14.66 14.39 14.35 14.38 14.25 14.32 15.43 15.39 15.41 15.31 15.37

 coal 1.59 1.58 1.58 1.57 1.57 1.58 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.58 1.57 1.57 1.56 1.56 1.74 1.73 1.73 1.72 1.72

ELECTRIC GENERATION (billion kWh) 4,926.27 4,899.77 4,902.00 4,877.85 4,883.87 4,985.61 4,970.39 4,968.96 4,955.47 4,962.16 4,805.29 4,785.02 4,792.39 4,749.29 4,771.60 5,218.96 5,192.01 5,194.85 5,161.80 5,172.17

 coal 2,142.71 2,177.86 2,173.08 2,205.23 2,199.91 1,965.65 2,017.08 2,010.40 2,076.04 2,072.01 2,250.96 2,299.95 2,288.43 2,318.37 2,307.93 2,230.53 2,234.24 2,247.81 2,248.95 2,243.60

 gas 1,143.09 1,075.44 1,084.20 1,020.61 1,029.93 1,418.58 1,349.39 1,356.51 1,272.85 1,275.05 878.08 797.50 812.65 731.17 762.84 1,317.28 1,273.98 1,266.15 1,220.40 1,234.87

 nuclear 876.67 876.67 876.67 876.67 876.67 858.29 858.29 858.29 858.29 863.83 876.67 878.22 878.27 879.99 878.26 876.67 877.25 876.67 877.38 876.67

 renewables 702.87 707.59 705.79 711.29 713.75 681.48 683.24 681.93 685.54 688.71 734.07 743.56 747.72 752.68 756.76 730.61 742.46 740.48 748.18 750.94

 other 60.93 62.21 62.25 64.05 63.60 61.62 62.40 61.82 62.74 62.56 65.51 65.81 65.32 67.09 65.81 63.87 64.07 63.73 66.89 66.09

PRIMARY ENERGY (quadrillion Btu)

 Consumption 111.05 110.88 110.85 110.69 110.76 111.50 111.37 111.37 111.45 111.46 109.71 109.57 109.69 109.18 109.59 117.72 117.47 117.54 117.22 117.23

 Imports 27.93 27.63 27.67 27.60 27.46 26.80 26.78 26.86 27.04 26.99 29.22 29.38 29.42 29.45 29.40 30.26 30.04 29.97 30.09 29.72

 Exports 7.91 10.13 10.13 12.29 12.32 8.18 10.39 10.40 12.58 12.62 7.54 9.74 9.72 11.88 11.94 7.97 10.17 10.18 12.32 12.36

 Production 90.96 93.37 93.26 95.38 95.65 92.89 95.05 94.99 97.21 97.27 87.86 89.79 89.86 91.50 92.04 95.31 97.52 97.67 99.38 99.80

ENERGY RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS (including 

liquefaction)(million metric tons) 6,114.82 6,136.49 6,131.49 6,155.61 6,152.88 6,074.00 6,103.94 6,102.31 6,151.52 6,146.61 6,084.64 6,103.94 6,106.49 6,104.89 6,120.61 6,521.09 6,517.76 6,525.31 6,521.52 6,520.16

Reference High Shale EUR Low Shale EUR High Macroeconomic Growth
Table B4. Differential from Base in U.S. Average Annual Values from 2025 to 2035 when Exports are Added

low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/

slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid

NATURAL GAS VOLUMES (Tcf)

 Net Exports 2.18 2.19 4.23 4.28 2.06 2.05 4.09 4.10 1.88 1.76 3.93 3.85 2.17 2.17 4.09 4.26

 gross imports 0.01 0.00 0.12 0.10 0.13 0.14 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.43 0.42 0.53 0.02 0.02 0.26 0.12

 gross exports 2.19 2.19 4.35 4.38 2.19 2.19 4.35 4.38 2.19 2.19 4.35 4.38 2.19 2.19 4.35 4.38

 Dry Production 1.51 1.59 3.00 3.15 1.43 1.49 2.77 2.78 1.24 1.25 2.62 2.90 1.74 1.71 3.15 3.47

 shale gas 1.13 1.15 2.14 2.31 1.18 1.23 2.24 2.23 0.84 0.91 1.55 1.75 1.29 1.28 2.30 2.56

 other 0.38 0.44 0.86 0.84 0.25 0.25 0.53 0.55 0.40 0.35 1.07 1.16 0.45 0.43 0.85 0.91

 Delivered Volumes (1) (0.75) (0.67) (1.36) (1.26) (0.69) (0.63) (1.43) (1.43) (0.72) (0.59) (1.44) (1.13) (0.51) (0.54) (1.08) (0.95)

 electric generators (0.40) (0.32) (0.71) (0.61) (0.35) (0.25) (0.79) (0.70) (0.50) (0.37) (0.96) (0.69) (0.17) (0.19) (0.45) (0.28)

 industrial (0.24) (0.25) (0.44) (0.46) (0.24) (0.27) (0.43) (0.53) (0.13) (0.15) (0.27) (0.28) (0.25) (0.27) (0.46) (0.49)

 residential (0.04) (0.04) (0.08) (0.08) (0.03) (0.03) (0.07) (0.06) (0.03) (0.03) (0.08) (0.06) (0.04) (0.03) (0.07) (0.07)

 commercial (0.06) (0.06) (0.12) (0.11) (0.05) (0.06) (0.11) (0.10) (0.05) (0.04) (0.11) (0.08) (0.05) (0.04) (0.10) (0.09)

NATURAL GAS END-USE PRICES (2009$/Mcf)

 residential 0.55 0.48 1.15 0.95 0.35 0.37 0.79 0.67 0.46 0.33 1.27 0.78 0.43 0.35 0.97 0.81

 commercial 0.54 0.48 1.12 0.92 0.33 0.34 0.73 0.61 0.47 0.34 1.29 0.78 0.41 0.34 0.93 0.76

 industrial 0.62 0.54 1.44 1.16 0.46 0.48 1.07 0.92 0.49 0.36 1.39 0.78 0.55 0.46 1.32 1.09

OTHER PRICES

 Natural Gas Wellhead Price (2009$/Mcf) 0.54 0.47 1.27 1.01 0.36 0.38 0.86 0.71 0.52 0.43 1.44 0.85 0.45 0.38 1.15 0.90

 Henry Hub Price (2009$/MMBtu) 0.60 0.52 1.39 1.11 0.40 0.41 0.95 0.79 0.57 0.47 1.59 0.94 0.50 0.42 1.26 1.00

 Coal Minemouth Price (2009$/short-ton) 0.05 (0.03) 0.22 (0.03) 0.25 0.01 0.22 0.05 0.34 0.12 (0.01) 0.08 (0.29) (0.35) (0.30) (0.14)

 End-Use Electricity Price (2009 cents/KWh) 0.16 0.13 0.35 0.27 0.08 0.10 0.18 0.12 0.12 0.08 0.38 0.20 0.17 0.13 0.40 0.28

NATURAL GAS REVENUES (B 2009$)

 Export Revenues (2) 17.01 16.69 37.77 36.17 12.96 13.03 28.42 27.60 22.19 21.60 49.31 45.52 18.27 17.90 39.95 38.66

 Domestic Supply Revenues (3) 22.53 21.50 50.21 44.94 16.11 16.89 35.77 31.78 21.14 19.48 54.05 43.89 23.68 21.37 51.70 47.99

 production revenues (4) 23.23 21.93 53.09 46.98 17.31 17.97 39.36 34.84 21.67 19.88 55.41 44.23 24.28 21.81 54.56 49.85

 delivery revenues (5) (0.71) (0.44) (2.88) (2.04) (1.21) (1.08) (3.58) (3.06) (0.53) (0.40) (1.36) (0.33) (0.60) (0.44) (2.86) (1.87)

 Import Revenues (6) 1.82 1.59 4.91 4.02 1.95 2.06 4.35 4.11 3.63 3.43 7.32 5.87 1.79 1.56 5.39 4.03

END-USE ENERGY EXPENDITURES (B 2009$) 7.22 6.81 20.24 13.73 8.64 10.06 16.25 9.03 10.21 2.71 25.31 3.19 6.84 3.63 19.81 10.59

 liquids (4.45) (3.01) (5.94) (6.31) 1.05 1.66 (1.39) (4.34) 1.83 (2.86) (0.27) (9.74) (4.43) (5.17) (7.34) (9.37)

 natural gas 6.25 5.18 14.47 10.71 4.12 4.18 10.00 7.37 4.49 2.65 13.90 6.65 5.12 3.70 12.99 9.47

 electricity 5.47 4.71 11.80 9.44 3.50 4.26 7.68 6.07 3.94 2.94 11.78 6.39 6.24 5.19 14.31 10.65

 coal (0.05) (0.07) (0.08) (0.11) (0.03) (0.04) (0.03) (0.06) (0.04) (0.03) (0.09) (0.11) (0.08) (0.09) (0.15) (0.16)

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion 

Btu) (0.37) (0.38) (0.70) (0.71) (0.37) (0.39) (0.60) (0.65) (0.28) (0.20) (0.60) (0.42) (0.38) (0.39) (0.73) (0.72)

 liquids (0.00) (0.02) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) 0.00 0.06 0.06 (0.03) 0.03 (0.01) 0.07 (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03)

 natural gas (0.31) (0.32) (0.57) (0.60) (0.35) (0.39) (0.65) (0.74) (0.21) (0.21) (0.42) (0.40) (0.30) (0.32) (0.54) (0.60)

 electricity (0.04) (0.03) (0.11) (0.07) 0.00 0.01 (0.00) 0.04 (0.04) (0.01) (0.14) (0.07) (0.05) (0.02) (0.13) (0.07)

 coal (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.03)

ELECTRIC GENERATION (billion kWh) (26.50) (24.27) (48.42) (42.40) (15.22) (16.66) (30.14) (23.45) (20.26) (12.90) (55.99) (33.69) (26.95) (24.11) (57.15) (46.78)

 coal 35.15 30.37 62.53 57.20 51.43 44.76 110.39 106.36 48.98 37.46 67.41 56.97 3.71 17.28 18.42 13.07

 gas (67.65) (58.89) (122.48) (113.16) (69.19) (62.06) (145.72) (143.53) (80.58) (65.43) (146.91) (115.24) (43.30) (51.13) (96.88) (82.41)

 nuclear - (0.00) - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.55 1.54 1.60 3.32 1.59 0.58 0.00 0.71 0.00

 renewables 4.72 2.92 8.41 10.87 1.76 0.46 4.07 7.23 9.49 13.65 18.61 22.69 11.85 9.87 17.57 20.33

 other 1.28 1.33 3.12 2.68 0.77 0.19 1.12 0.94 0.30 (0.19) 1.58 0.31 0.20 (0.13) 3.02 2.22

PRIMARY ENERGY (quadrillion Btu)

 Consumption (0.16) (0.20) (0.35) (0.29) (0.13) (0.13) (0.05) (0.04) (0.13) (0.02) (0.53) (0.12) (0.25) (0.18) (0.50) (0.49)

 Imports (0.30) (0.26) (0.33) (0.47) (0.03) 0.05 0.23 0.19 0.16 0.20 0.23 0.18 (0.22) (0.30) (0.17) (0.54)

 Exports 2.21 2.21 4.37 4.41 2.21 2.22 4.40 4.43 2.20 2.19 4.35 4.41 2.20 2.21 4.35 4.39

 Production 2.41 2.30 4.42 4.69 2.16 2.10 4.32 4.38 1.93 2.00 3.65 4.18 2.20 2.36 4.07 4.49

ENERGY RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS (including 

liquefaction)(million metric tons) 21.67 16.67 40.79 38.07 29.94 28.31 77.52 72.61 19.31 21.85 20.25 35.98 (3.33) 4.21 0.43 (0.93)

Reference High Shale EUR Low Shale EUR High Macroeconomic Growth
Table B5. U.S. Annual Average Values from 2015 to 2035

low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/

baseline slow rapid slow rapid baseline slow rapid slow rapid baseline slow rapid slow rapid baseline slow rapid slow rapid

NATURAL GAS VOLUMES (Tcf)

 Net Exports (1.31) 0.57 0.78 1.81 2.63 (0.63) 1.21 1.41 2.44 3.24 (2.40) (0.70) (0.60) 0.52 1.21 (1.45) 0.44 0.64 1.60 2.49

 gross imports 3.31 3.35 3.35 3.42 3.43 2.84 2.94 2.95 3.01 3.04 4.13 4.36 4.46 4.44 4.59 3.40 3.45 3.45 3.59 3.53

 gross exports 2.00 3.93 4.13 5.23 6.06 2.22 4.15 4.35 5.45 6.28 1.73 3.66 3.86 4.96 5.79 1.95 3.88 4.09 5.19 6.02

 Dry Production 24.18 25.37 25.52 26.24 26.78 27.48 28.71 28.86 29.52 29.95 20.40 21.47 21.51 22.28 22.86 25.37 26.75 26.83 27.60 28.26

 shale gas 9.65 10.51 10.63 11.10 11.56 13.70 14.67 14.79 15.30 15.67 4.56 5.23 5.37 5.64 6.08 10.47 11.48 11.58 12.08 12.62

 other 14.54 14.85 14.89 15.15 15.21 13.78 14.04 14.06 14.22 14.28 15.84 16.24 16.14 16.64 16.78 14.90 15.27 15.25 15.53 15.65

 Delivered Volumes (1) 23.67 22.91 22.85 22.52 22.20 26.12 25.46 25.41 25.00 24.61 21.12 20.42 20.36 19.97 19.81 24.92 24.35 24.23 24.01 23.75

 electric generators 7.06 6.58 6.57 6.36 6.18 8.64 8.26 8.28 7.98 7.77 5.44 4.97 4.98 4.69 4.66 7.63 7.36 7.29 7.18 7.09

 industrial 8.10 7.92 7.88 7.81 7.72 8.62 8.42 8.38 8.31 8.18 7.60 7.46 7.42 7.38 7.29 8.59 8.39 8.34 8.27 8.16

 residential 4.82 4.79 4.78 4.76 4.75 4.94 4.91 4.91 4.89 4.88 4.66 4.62 4.61 4.59 4.57 4.95 4.92 4.91 4.90 4.87

 commercial 3.58 3.53 3.52 3.49 3.47 3.78 3.73 3.72 3.70 3.68 3.34 3.28 3.27 3.24 3.22 3.64 3.59 3.58 3.56 3.53

NATURAL GAS END-USE PRICES (2009$/Mcf)

 residential 12.04 12.53 12.57 12.91 13.08 10.61 10.95 11.02 11.22 11.35 14.35 14.98 15.06 15.55 15.69 12.63 13.10 13.13 13.45 13.68

 commercial 9.91 10.39 10.44 10.76 10.93 8.49 8.80 8.88 9.06 9.18 12.24 12.88 12.95 13.46 13.60 10.49 10.95 10.98 11.29 11.50

 industrial 6.20 6.76 6.80 7.26 7.44 4.90 5.32 5.41 5.69 5.86 8.38 9.07 9.15 9.71 9.84 6.69 7.26 7.29 7.75 7.99

OTHER PRICES

 Natural Gas Wellhead Price (2009$/Mcf) 5.28 5.78 5.82 6.23 6.39 4.01 4.35 4.42 4.66 4.79 7.37 8.06 8.16 8.71 8.87 5.75 6.25 6.28 6.69 6.90

 Henry Hub Price (2009$/MMBtu) 5.81 6.36 6.41 6.86 7.03 4.41 4.79 4.87 5.12 5.27 8.12 8.88 8.98 9.60 9.77 6.33 6.88 6.91 7.36 7.60

 Coal Minemouth Price (2009$/short-ton) 33.06 33.12 33.15 33.29 33.18 32.77 33.07 32.87 32.99 33.00 33.34 33.64 33.50 33.38 33.46 33.74 33.60 33.52 33.66 33.72

 End-Use Electricity Price (2009 cents/KWh) 8.94 9.08 9.08 9.19 9.22 8.56 8.63 8.67 8.70 8.70 9.65 9.81 9.83 10.00 10.02 9.29 9.46 9.45 9.60 9.62

NATURAL GAS REVENUES (B 2009$)

 Export Revenues (2) 11.13 25.11 26.34 37.49 43.23 8.98 19.64 20.80 28.85 33.39 15.07 34.12 35.85 50.80 58.30 12.11 27.19 28.43 40.19 46.69

 Domestic Supply Revenues (3) 179.79 198.43 200.12 215.08 221.64 165.83 179.88 182.38 191.82 196.70 200.15 222.46 224.55 243.87 251.43 201.24 222.30 223.13 239.62 248.66

 production revenues (4) 128.46 147.79 149.40 165.76 172.31 110.87 125.92 128.47 139.27 144.50 151.06 173.98 176.05 196.01 203.32 147.54 169.19 169.97 187.82 196.82

 delivery revenues (5) 51.32 50.64 50.72 49.32 49.33 54.96 53.96 53.92 52.55 52.21 49.09 48.48 48.50 47.86 48.12 53.70 53.12 53.16 51.79 51.84

 Import Revenues (6) 17.77 19.53 19.69 21.37 22.03 11.92 13.52 13.84 14.94 15.61 30.84 34.49 35.15 37.10 38.16 19.97 21.90 22.09 24.07 24.58

END-USE ENERGY EXPENDITURES (B 2009$) 1,489.93 1,499.04 1,499.79 1,507.51 1,510.31 1,455.15 1,463.17 1,465.18 1,469.08 1,469.35 1,547.09 1,561.08 1,559.57 1,572.52 1,567.30 1,625.45 1,635.66 1,634.71 1,644.67 1,646.03

 liquids 974.71 973.09 973.49 972.64 972.64 970.30 971.23 971.23 970.91 969.68 981.60 983.31 980.57 982.05 975.74 1,063.35 1,061.47 1,060.75 1,060.30 1,058.97

 natural gas 140.16 146.09 146.41 151.27 152.79 124.61 128.76 129.62 132.45 133.62 165.55 172.70 173.21 179.55 180.30 154.27 160.27 160.24 165.41 167.51

 electricity 368.28 373.10 373.13 376.85 378.14 353.56 356.51 357.67 359.05 359.38 393.11 398.26 398.98 404.14 404.50 400.29 406.41 406.21 411.48 412.09

 coal 6.78 6.76 6.75 6.75 6.74 6.68 6.68 6.67 6.68 6.67 6.83 6.81 6.81 6.78 6.76 7.54 7.51 7.50 7.48 7.46

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion 

Btu) 69.09 68.81 68.75 68.64 68.49 69.93 69.65 69.59 69.52 69.37 67.90 67.61 67.58 67.42 67.33 72.62 72.33 72.26 72.14 71.97

 liquids 37.29 37.30 37.29 37.31 37.31 37.21 37.23 37.24 37.28 37.28 37.24 37.23 37.25 37.25 37.28 39.42 39.43 39.42 39.43 39.44

 natural gas 16.15 15.90 15.85 15.76 15.61 17.04 16.76 16.69 16.58 16.41 15.18 14.95 14.89 14.82 14.69 16.81 16.55 16.49 16.41 16.23

 electricity 14.02 13.98 13.98 13.95 13.95 14.05 14.05 14.04 14.04 14.06 13.85 13.81 13.81 13.74 13.74 14.64 14.60 14.61 14.55 14.56

 coal 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.63 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.61 1.76 1.75 1.75 1.74 1.74

ELECTRIC GENERATION (billion kWh) 4,691.78 4,671.70 4,670.36 4,660.47 4,654.31 4,740.10 4,728.42 4,724.32 4,720.03 4,717.90 4,599.04 4,578.46 4,576.69 4,554.90 4,551.26 4,907.86 4,886.10 4,884.89 4,868.85 4,864.09

 coal 2,030.24 2,078.96 2,083.33 2,100.15 2,121.75 1,860.54 1,912.06 1,912.09 1,949.35 1,977.66 2,171.63 2,216.91 2,212.07 2,221.68 2,224.94 2,114.85 2,134.13 2,149.63 2,144.11 2,158.39

 gas 1,074.40 1,000.10 995.54 963.40 932.18 1,328.06 1,262.83 1,259.57 1,215.21 1,175.80 808.02 735.39 733.01 695.09 685.68 1,181.25 1,129.59 1,115.49 1,096.96 1,074.83

 nuclear 871.23 871.23 871.23 871.23 871.23 854.18 854.18 854.18 854.53 859.21 871.23 872.04 872.07 872.97 872.07 871.23 871.54 871.23 871.61 871.23

 renewables 655.74 660.26 658.89 663.43 666.81 636.24 637.87 637.72 639.17 643.29 684.94 690.77 696.38 700.70 704.42 678.14 688.13 686.04 691.94 695.77

 other 60.17 61.15 61.37 62.26 62.34 61.08 61.49 60.76 61.77 61.93 63.21 63.35 63.16 64.47 64.16 62.38 62.71 62.50 64.24 63.86

PRIMARY ENERGY (quadrillion Btu)

 Consumption 107.97 107.90 107.87 107.85 107.85 108.38 108.31 108.27 108.38 108.37 107.04 106.89 106.89 106.66 106.70 113.05 112.91 112.92 112.81 112.71

 Imports 28.28 28.20 28.21 28.18 28.19 27.27 27.28 27.34 27.47 27.49 29.50 29.62 29.68 29.71 29.75 30.17 30.14 30.09 30.17 30.02

 Exports 7.48 9.43 9.63 10.73 11.57 7.69 9.64 9.86 10.96 11.81 7.19 9.12 9.32 10.41 11.25 7.53 9.47 9.68 10.77 11.61

 Production 87.04 89.04 89.18 90.30 91.17 88.73 90.66 90.77 91.94 92.73 84.52 86.20 86.35 87.18 88.04 90.24 92.09 92.35 93.26 94.16

ENERGY RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS (including 

liquefaction)(million metric tons) 5,955.05 5,985.66 5,986.04 6,001.82 6,013.46 5,915.71 5,947.04 5,946.80 5,977.68 5,991.27 5,960.10 5,981.23 5,978.85 5,976.06 5,984.27 6,270.24 6,279.14 6,286.47 6,283.68 6,290.23

Reference High Shale EUR Low Shale EUR High Macroeconomic Growth
Table B6. Differential from Base in U.S. Average Annual Values from 2015 to 2035 when Exports are Added

low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/ low/ low/ high/ high/

slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid slow rapid

NATURAL GAS VOLUMES (Tcf)

 Net Exports 1.89 2.10 3.12 3.95 1.84 2.03 3.06 3.87 1.70 1.81 2.92 3.61 1.89 2.09 3.05 3.94

 gross imports 0.04 0.04 0.11 0.12 0.09 0.10 0.17 0.20 0.23 0.33 0.31 0.46 0.04 0.05 0.19 0.13

 gross exports 1.93 2.14 3.23 4.07 1.93 2.14 3.23 4.07 1.93 2.14 3.23 4.07 1.93 2.14 3.23 4.07

 Dry Production 1.18 1.33 2.06 2.59 1.23 1.38 2.04 2.47 1.06 1.11 1.88 2.45 1.38 1.46 2.23 2.89

 shale gas 0.86 0.98 1.45 1.91 0.97 1.09 1.60 1.97 0.67 0.81 1.08 1.52 1.01 1.11 1.61 2.15

 other 0.32 0.35 0.61 0.68 0.26 0.28 0.44 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.80 0.93 0.37 0.35 0.62 0.74

 Delivered Volumes (1) (0.76) (0.82) (1.15) (1.47) (0.66) (0.71) (1.12) (1.51) (0.71) (0.77) (1.15) (1.31) (0.57) (0.69) (0.91) (1.17)

 electric generators (0.48) (0.49) (0.70) (0.88) (0.38) (0.36) (0.66) (0.87) (0.46) (0.46) (0.75) (0.78) (0.27) (0.34) (0.45) (0.54)

 industrial (0.18) (0.22) (0.29) (0.38) (0.19) (0.24) (0.31) (0.44) (0.14) (0.19) (0.22) (0.32) (0.20) (0.25) (0.32) (0.43)

 residential (0.04) (0.04) (0.06) (0.08) (0.03) (0.04) (0.05) (0.06) (0.04) (0.05) (0.07) (0.09) (0.04) (0.04) (0.06) (0.08)

 commercial (0.05) (0.06) (0.09) (0.11) (0.05) (0.06) (0.08) (0.10) (0.06) (0.07) (0.10) (0.12) (0.05) (0.06) (0.08) (0.11)

NATURAL GAS END-USE PRICES (2009$/Mcf)

 residential 0.49 0.53 0.87 1.04 0.33 0.41 0.60 0.73 0.64 0.71 1.20 1.34 0.47 0.50 0.82 1.05

 commercial 0.48 0.52 0.84 1.02 0.31 0.39 0.57 0.69 0.64 0.71 1.22 1.35 0.46 0.49 0.80 1.02

 industrial 0.56 0.60 1.07 1.24 0.42 0.51 0.79 0.96 0.69 0.77 1.33 1.46 0.57 0.60 1.06 1.30

OTHER PRICES

 Natural Gas Wellhead Price (2009$/Mcf) 0.50 0.54 0.95 1.11 0.34 0.42 0.65 0.79 0.69 0.79 1.34 1.50 0.50 0.52 0.94 1.15

 Henry Hub Price (2009$/MMBtu) 0.55 0.59 1.05 1.22 0.38 0.46 0.72 0.87 0.77 0.87 1.48 1.65 0.55 0.58 1.03 1.26

 Coal Minemouth Price (2009$/short-ton) 0.06 0.09 0.22 0.12 0.30 0.11 0.22 0.24 0.29 0.16 0.04 0.12 (0.14) (0.22) (0.08) (0.02)

 End-Use Electricity Price (2009 cents/KWh) 0.14 0.14 0.25 0.29 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.16 0.18 0.35 0.37 0.17 0.16 0.31 0.33

NATURAL GAS REVENUES (B 2009$)

 Export Revenues (2) 13.99 15.22 26.36 32.10 10.66 11.82 19.87 24.41 19.05 20.78 35.73 43.23 15.08 16.32 28.08 34.57

 Domestic Supply Revenues (3) 18.64 20.34 35.29 41.85 14.05 16.55 25.99 30.88 22.30 24.39 43.72 51.28 21.06 21.88 38.37 47.42

 production revenues (4) 19.33 20.94 37.29 43.84 15.05 17.60 28.40 33.63 22.92 24.98 44.95 52.25 21.64 22.43 40.28 49.28

 delivery revenues (5) (0.69) (0.60) (2.00) (1.99) (1.00) (1.04) (2.41) (2.75) (0.61) (0.59) (1.23) (0.97) (0.58) (0.54) (1.91) (1.86)

 Import Revenues (6) 1.76 1.93 3.60 4.26 1.60 1.92 3.02 3.69 3.65 4.31 6.26 7.31 1.93 2.12 4.11 4.61

END-USE ENERGY EXPENDITURES (B 2009$) 9.11 9.86 17.59 20.39 8.02 10.03 13.93 14.19 13.98 12.47 25.42 20.21 10.22 9.26 19.22 20.58

 liquids (1.63) (1.22) (2.07) (2.07) 0.92 0.92 0.61 (0.62) 1.70 (1.04) 0.45 (5.86) (1.88) (2.60) (3.05) (4.38)

 natural gas 5.94 6.26 11.12 12.63 4.15 5.01 7.84 9.01 7.15 7.66 14.00 14.75 6.00 5.98 11.14 13.24

 electricity 4.82 4.86 8.57 9.87 2.95 4.11 5.49 5.82 5.15 5.87 11.03 11.39 6.12 5.92 11.19 11.80

 coal (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.04) (0.01) (0.02) (0.00) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.05) (0.07) (0.03) (0.04) (0.06) (0.08)

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion 

Btu) (0.28) (0.34) (0.45) (0.60) (0.27) (0.34) (0.41) (0.55) (0.29) (0.32) (0.48) (0.57) (0.30) (0.36) (0.49) (0.65)

 liquids 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.07 (0.01) 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.02

 natural gas (0.25) (0.30) (0.40) (0.54) (0.28) (0.35) (0.46) (0.63) (0.23) (0.29) (0.36) (0.49) (0.27) (0.33) (0.41) (0.58)

 electricity (0.04) (0.03) (0.07) (0.07) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.02 (0.05) (0.05) (0.11) (0.11) (0.04) (0.03) (0.09) (0.08)

 coal (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02)

ELECTRIC GENERATION (billion kWh) (20.08) (21.43) (31.31) (37.47) (11.67) (15.77) (20.07) (22.20) (20.58) (22.35) (44.13) (47.78) (21.76) (22.98) (39.01) (43.78)

 coal 48.72 53.09 69.91 91.51 51.52 51.55 88.82 117.12 45.28 40.44 50.04 53.31 19.28 34.78 29.25 43.53

 gas (74.30) (78.86) (111.00) (142.22) (65.24) (68.49) (112.86) (152.26) (72.63) (75.01) (112.93) (122.34) (51.66) (65.76) (84.29) (106.42)

 nuclear - (0.00) - - 0.00 0.00 0.35 5.02 0.81 0.84 1.74 0.83 0.30 0.00 0.37 0.00

 renewables 4.52 3.15 7.69 11.07 1.63 1.48 2.94 7.06 5.84 11.44 15.76 19.48 9.99 7.89 13.80 17.63

 other 0.98 1.20 2.09 2.17 0.41 (0.32) 0.69 0.86 0.13 (0.06) 1.25 0.94 0.33 0.11 1.86 1.48

PRIMARY ENERGY (quadrillion Btu)

 Consumption (0.07) (0.10) (0.12) (0.12) (0.06) (0.11) 0.01 (0.00) (0.15) (0.15) (0.38) (0.34) (0.13) (0.13) (0.24) (0.34)

 Imports (0.09) (0.08) (0.10) (0.10) 0.01 0.07 0.20 0.22 0.12 0.18 0.21 0.25 (0.03) (0.07) 0.00 (0.15)

 Exports 1.94 2.15 3.25 4.09 1.96 2.17 3.28 4.12 1.93 2.13 3.22 4.06 1.94 2.15 3.24 4.08

 Production 2.00 2.14 3.26 4.13 1.93 2.03 3.20 4.00 1.68 1.83 2.66 3.52 1.85 2.11 3.02 3.92

ENERGY RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS (including 

liquefaction)(million metric tons) 30.62 30.99 46.77 58.42 31.33 31.09 61.96 75.56 21.14 18.75 15.96 24.18 8.90 16.23 13.44 19.99

Reference High Shale EUR Low Shale EUR High Macroeconomic Growth
FOOTNOTES

(1) total includes components below plus deliveries to the transportation sector

(2) export volumes added for this study times the Henry Hub price plus an assumed transport fee to the liquefaction facility of 20 cents per Mcf, plus sum of all other 

export volumes (i.e., to Canada and Mexico) times the associated price at the border 

(3) represents producer revenues at the wellhead plus other revenues extracted before final gas delivery.

(4) dry gas production times average wellhead or first-purchase price

(5) represented revenues extracted as gas moves from the first-purchase wellhead price to final delivery

(6) import volumes times the associated price at the border

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 National Energy Modeling system runs ref2011.d020911a, rflexslw.d090911a, rflexrpd.d090911a, rfhexslw.d090911a, 

rfhesrpd.d090911a, hshleur.d020911a, helexslw.d090911a, helexrpd.d090911a, hehexslw.d090911a, hehexrpd.d090911a, feleur.d090811a, lelexslw.d090911a, 

lelexrpd.d090911a, lehexslw.d090911a, lehexrpd.d090911a, fehdem.d090811a, hmlexslw.d090911a, hmlexrpd.d090911a, hmhexslw.d090911a, hmhexrpd.d090911a