WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

December 23, 2015

MEMORANDUM FOR: John Conti

Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis

Jim Diefenderfer

Office Director

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis

Paul Holtberg

Team Leader

Analysis Integration Team

FROM: Chris Namovicz

Team Leader for Renewable Electricity Analysis

And

Renewable Electricity Analysis Team

SUBJECT: Summary of AEO2015 Renewable Electricity Working Group 

Meeting held on December 7, 2015

Presenters: Chris Namovicz

Topics included AEO2016 model and data updates, a summary of AEO2015 model results, and a brief 

overview of planned changes for the AEO2016. Data updates included required modeling development 

efforts to include the final and proposed CPP rule, as well as capital cost updates, RPS developments, and 

new federal tax policies. Model changes in other areas include preliminary macro-economic updates, 

lower near-term natural gas costs, a possible slow-down in demand growth, and how the model 

addresses distributed generation in buildings. 

Participants Present:

Bergman, Aaron (DOE)

Cunliff, Colin (DOE)

Feldman, David (NREL)

Hodson, Elke (DOE)

Boyd, Erin (DOE)

Nathwani, Jay (DOE)

Blair, Nate (NREL)

Donohoo-Vallett, Paul (DOE)

Tusing, Rich (DOE)
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Margolis, Robert (NREL)

Lindenberg, Steve (DOE)

Goggin, Michael (AWEA)

Hensley, John (AWEA)

Holm, Aaron (SEIA)

Hunt, Hannah (AWEA)

Wilson, John D. (Southern Alliance for Clean Energy)

Boedecker, Erin (EIA)

Bowman, Michelle (EIA)

Diefenderfer, Jim (EIA)

Hodge, Tyler (EIA)

Huetteman, Thad (EIA)

Jarzomski, Kevin (EIA)

Jell, Scott (EIA)

Jones, Jeff (EIA)

Kwon, Augustine (EIA)

Lowenthal-Savy, Danielle (EIA)

Martin, Laura (EIA)

Mayes, Fred (EIA)

Moses, Carolyn (EIA)

Neff, Shirley (EIA)

White, Carol (EIA)

Participants Via Webex:

Augustine, Chad (NREL)

Fields, Fletcher (DOE)

Wiser, Ryan (LBL)

Kaarsberg, Tina (DOE)

Baca, Justin (SEIA)

Dougherty, Ryan (Geothermal Exchange Organization)

Katofsky, Ryan (Advanced Energy Perspectives)

Luckow, Patrick (Synapse Energy)

Mahan, Simon (Southern Alliance for Clean Energy)

Matek, Ben (Geothermal Energy Association)

Showalter, Sharon (OnLocation, Inc.)

Wood, Frances (OnLocation, Inc.)

Lee, April (EIA)

Marcy, Cara (EIA)

Issues Discussed
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

• Learning curves: A participant inquired about the methodology used to update the learning 

costs. Response: EIA noted that we were not anticipating changing the learning-by-doing 

approach currently used in the model for AEO 2016, but are interested in reviewing our learning 

methodology in the future.

• Wind costs: An inquiry was made about making sure that wind costs from the AEO2015 and the 

LEIDOS report are commensurate with changing performance characteristics. Response: EIA said 

they would follow up.

• Form EIA-860 data: A participant inquired about how to incorporate the data from the Form 

EIA- 860 into the data input updates. Response: EIA said that data from the Form EIA-860 report 

is not used to determine the capital cost input into the AEO. Some of the Form EIA-860 

reporting is inconsistent and some less common technologies are not reported. Additionally, 

some of the wind data is too sensitive to be used transparently as model input.

• LCOE: A participant asked what about the source of labor, fuel, and maintenance costs. The 

participant also asked about the source of LCOE as an input. Response: LCOE is a model output, 

not a model input. The fixed O&M costs are from modeled costs, based on earlier reports from 

Leidos, as modified by model dynamics; labor is included in capital costs and O&M costs; fuel 

costs (also in capital costs) are calculated over 30 years and then levelized based on perfect 

foresight.

• Financial models: A participant asked about fixed vs. variable capacity costs and how these costs 

affect financial models in circumstances where private companies buy solar and wind energy.

The participant also asked about how tax credits are incorporated into the financial models. 

Response: Current financial models are optimized according to current tax credits and assume 

mortgage finance for residential systems, so new financial models will need to be adjusted to 

accommodate the expiration of some of the tax credits.

• Yieldcos: A participant asked about the impact of interest rates on yieldcos on financial models.

Response: The impact of interest rates on yieldcos has not currently been incorporated into 

modeling efforts due to time constraints, but EIA may look into including it in the future.

• Solar PV Costs: A participant wondered how fixed-tilt PV systems could cost more than singleaxis tracking systems in the proposed capital costs. Response: The effective cost-equivalence 

between fixed-tilt and tracking PV systems results from deliberate design decisions by 

developers to optimize the output of each type of system. The fixed-tilt system characterized by 

Leidos has a higher inverter loading ratio than the tracking system, thus more DC solar panels 

are used per unit of AC capacity.