U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

NEMS Buildings Sector Working Group 

Meeting

Erin Boedecker

Owen Comstock

Behjat Hojjati

Kevin Jarzomski

David Peterson

Steve Wade

October 4, 2012 | Washington, D.C.

AEO2013 Preliminary Results

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION 

FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS 

RESULTS ARE

SUBJECT TO CHANGE
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Overview

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012 2

• Recap of project list presented at last working group meeting

• AEO2013 and AEO2012 comparison

– Sector growth

– Energy prices

– Heating and cooling degree days

• Residential sector results

• Commercial sector results

• Distributed generation
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Recap from last working group meeting

3

• Buildings projects

– Revised long-term weather assumptions

– SEDS 2010 and AER 2011 calibration

– Annual updates (weather, historical generation and capacity for distributed 

generation, interconnection limitations, etc.)

– Photovoltaic cost path

• Residential projects

– Begin to incorporate RECS 2009 data

• End-use consumption data still not available

– Input file restructuring

– Lighting submodule and technology update

– Equipment retirement methodology

– Housing decay rates

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Recap, continued

4

• Commercial projects

– Technology update for lighting, ventilation, and refrigeration equipment

– Input file restructuring

– Update hurdle rate distribution

– Data center consumption

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Main drivers

5

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2012

70

80

90

100

110

120

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013 ~= AEO2012

Little change in sector growth

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012 6

residential households, millions of units commercial floorspace, billion square feet

Real disposable personal income down 3% by 2040 relative to AEO2012

Residential growth in both single-family and multifamily housing

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a; ref2012.d020112c PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2012

AEO2013

AEO2012

AEO2013

electricity

natural gas

Electric prices slightly lower

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012 7

$2011 per million Btu $2011 per million Btu

Residential Commercial

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a; ref2012.d020112c PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2012

AEO2013

AEO2012

AEO2013

electricity

natural gas
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Less heating, more cooling than AEO2012

8

heating degree days cooling degree days

2005 – 2011 = history

2012 – 2013 = recent estimates of history + NOAA near-term forecast

2014 – beyond = EIA forecast using 30-year linear trend 

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a; ref2012.d020112c PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

3700

3800

3900

4000

4100

4200

4300

4400

4500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2012

AEO2013

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2012

AEO2013
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Residential results

9

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Electricity

Natural Gas

Distillate Fuel Oil

Other Liquids

Coal + Wood

Residential consumption lower, shares fairly stable

10

consumption by fuel, quadrillion Btu

AEO2012

2040 level

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a; ref2012.d020112c PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

2040
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Residential consumption dominated by HVAC

11

percent of delivered energy

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Other

HVAC

Lighting

Water Heating

TV + PC

Kitchen + Laundry

8%

10%

3%

18%

6%

53%

16%

13%

16%

5%

3%

47%
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

200620082010201220142016201820202022202420262028203020322034203620382040

LED

CFL

incandescent

Updated lighting characterization

12

• New lighting technology menu 

based on Navigant Consulting 

report

– No incandescent bulbs available after 

2020 standard

– EISA2007 Tier II standard

• DOE 2010 lighting market 

characterization

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a; ref2012.d020112c PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

purchases of general service bulbs, millions
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Updated personal computer shipments

13

• Updated historical and 

projected desktop and laptop 

shipments based on publicly 

available International Data 

Group (IDG) information

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a; ref2012.d020112c PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2012

AEO2013

delivered energy, quadrillion Btu
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Updated RECS appliance penetration in new construction

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012 14

0

40

80

120

160

200

central room electric dryer dishwasher freezer refrigerator

-----air conditioner-----

AEO2012 AEO2013

2040 equipment stock, million of units

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a; ref2012.d020112c PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Commercial results

15

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Electricity

Natural Gas

Distillate Fuel Oil

Other Liquids

Coal + Wood

Less electricity growth leads to lower commercial fuel consumption in AEO2013

16

consumption by fuel, quadrillion Btu

AEO2012

2040 level

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a; ref2012.d020112c PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

2040
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Commercial consumption growth dominated by ‘other’

17

percent of delivered energy

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a; ref2012.d020112c PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Other

HVAC

Lighting

Office Equipment

Water Heating

Cooking + Refrigeration

35%

4%

7%

7%

13%

34%

45%

5%

6%

6%

8%

28%
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Updated lighting characterization

18

• New lighting technology menu 

based on Navigant Consulting 

report

– No incandescent bulbs available after 

2020 standard

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a; ref2012.d020112c PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

Service demand of lighting, giga-lumen-years

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Incandescent CFL Fluorescent

Halogen High-Pressure Sodium LED

Metal Halide Mercury Vapor
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Updated data center consumption

19

• Updated assumptions for data 

centers based on latest report 

by Jonathan Koomey

• Projected growth of data 

centers substantially lower than 

previous report due to 

recession

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a; ref2012.d020112c PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2012

AEO2013

delivered energy, quadrillion Btu
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Distributed generation

20

• Photovoltaic system cost path

– Updated 2010 system costs based on Tracking the Sun IV (LBNL, 2011)

• No change from AEO2012 for residential, 7% lower for commercial

– Reduced future costs based on NREL bottoms-up potentials although did not 

directly incorporate 2020 costs

• Residential, Commercial, and Utility-Scale Photovoltaic (PV) System Prices 

in the United States: Current Drivers and Cost-Reduction Opportunities 

(NREL, 2012)

• 14% lower for residential in 2020, 18% lower for commercial in 2020

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Distributed generation (continued)

21

• Other DG changes

– Increased number of positive cumulative cash flow years for residential to 8 

from 5.

– Increased penetration into existing commercial construction to 1/10 penetration 

into new construction.

– Increased program-based exogenous penetration for commercial between 2011 

and 2016.

• Updated historical capacities

– 2010 +6%; 2011 +33%

• Preliminary results

– 2020 roughly 40% more PV than AEO2012; 60% more in 2035

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

More photovoltaic capacity in 2040, especially in commercial

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2H-081 | October 27, 2011 22

generating capacity, GW

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a; ref2012.d020112c PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2012

AEO2013

AEO2012

AEO2013

residential

commercial
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

We welcome your thoughts and suggestions

23

EIA Information Center

InfoCtr@eia.gov

Our average response time is within three 

business days.

(202) 586-8800

24-hour automated information line about EIA 

and frequently asked questions.

Erin Boedecker

Erin.Boedecker@eia.gov

202-586-4791

Behjat Hojjati

Behjat.Hojjati@eia.gov

202-586-1068

David Peterson

David.Peterson@eia.gov

202-586-5084

Owen Comstock

Owen.Comstock@eia.gov

202-586-4752

Kevin Jarzomski

Kevin.Jarzomski@eia.gov

202-586-3208

Steve Wade

Steven.Wade@eia.gov

202-586-1678

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Supplemental slides

24

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Update to hurdle rate inputs

25

• Notes on hurdle rates

– Calculated from implied rates of return (based on surveyed investment decisions) and set 

equal to the 10 year Treasury note rate plus a premium

– Premium distributions for the 7 major end-uses 

– Premiums generally assumed constant over the projection, but can be changed by year

– Different assumptions for years affected by ARRA spending

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Commercial – Distribution of required payback 

periods updated for AEO2013

26

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-069 | October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, ref2013.d100112a; ref2012.d020112c PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 2 4 6 8 10

Payback timeframe (approximated years)

percent of customers requiring payback within timeframe

Note: for new and replacement purchases only, non-ARRA years

AEO2012

AEO2011

AEO2013