U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

AEO2022 First Coal Working Group Meeting

For

Coal Working Group

May 26, 2021 | Washington, D.C.

By

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling Team

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AEO2022 First Coal Working Group Meeting Agenda

• What we’re working on for AEO2022

• Update on legislation and regulations affecting coal use

• Summary of AEO2021 projections with emphasis on coal

• Meeting protocols

– This presentation and accompanying meeting minutes will be made available within the next few 

weeks on the EIA Working Group website

– Please mute yourself and enter questions using the WebEx chat feature–we will pause at points 

during the presentation to address them.

– Select the raised-hand button if you want to speak

– The meeting will follow Chatham-house rules and will be recorded for note taking purposes only

– You were required to register with your email address, but if other people and listening with you or 

you wish to add or remove someone from the working group list, please send an email to 

David.Fritsch@eia.gov

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 2
Overview of Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022)

• What will be included in the AEO2022 release posted on the EIA website?

– Working group presentations and minutes

– Flip-book covering the Reference and core side cases

– Assumptions reports, including costs for new and existing electric plants and levelized costs

– Issues in Focus (IIF) paper on international coal trade is planned as part of the International 

Energy Outlook 2021 release and several IIF papers are likely as part of AEO2022

– Model documentation update in early 2022 after the official release of AEO2022

• AEO2022 schedule

– Coal Market Module (CMM) model development: Jun-Sep 2021

– Second Working Group Session: Sep 2021

– Expected AEO release (event): Jan 2022

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 3

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal Model Development for AEO2022

• Upgrade or modify CMM code to use AIMMS v4.76 (64 bit) or later (completed)

• Implemented a new coal transportation rate escalation methodology (completed 

for AEO2021)

• Evaluate utility Integrated Resource Plans (IRP) and implications for coal retirement. 

Working on IIF paper based on AEO2021

• Update historical coal input data in the CMM to base year 2020

• Update base year coal transportation rates based on 2018 and 2019 data

• Integrate the coal trade projections from new International Coal Market Module 

(ICMM) into the CMM

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 4

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Wave of coal retirements is expected to continue based on 

review of already planned or announced retirements

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021

Source for actual and planned retirements: Survey Form EIA 860-M data as of Feb 2021 and analyst research on specific announcements. 

Announced retirements are based on analyst research and have not been classified as a planned retirement for inclusion in the AEO2022 

Reference case.

5

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Coal plants retirements 

gigawatts (GW) of net summer capacity

retired

planned 

announced

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2030 2040 2050

Cumulative coal plant retirements

gigawatts (GW) of net summer capacity
More than 100 coal-fired plants have been replaced or 

converted to natural gas since 2011

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy, “More than 100 coal-fired plants have been replaced or converted to natural 

gas since 2011”, Principal Contributor: Lindsay Aramayo, August 5, 2020. Updated with Feb 2021 data from Form EIA 860-M.

6

• From 2011 to 2021, 121 U.S. coal-fired power plants were repurposed to burn other types of fuels, 107 of which 

were converted to or replaced by natural gas-fired plants

• Among the natural gas-fired conversions, 16.5 gigawatts (GW) had the boiler converted to burn natural gas, and 

16.1 GW were replaced with natural gas combined cycle

• Motives behind these transitions include: stricter emissions standards, low natural gas prices, and more efficient 

new natural gas turbine technology. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Update on other coal-related development and 

communication efforts

• Developing an International Coal Market Module (ICMM) in the World Energy 

Protection System Plus (WEPS+)

– Developed a linear programming-based approach using our Global Hydrocarbon Supply 

Model (GHySMo) platform in AIMMS and Python

– Created supply curves by WEPS region and sub-region for four coal types based on world 

historical coal production as compiled and estimated by our International Energy Statistics.

– Modeled world coal trade for both thermal and metallurgical coal for both seaborne and land 

based transportation of coal between regions and within regions based on estimated cost to 

move coal by land and sea. Inland costs are based on historical rate and price data, and 

seaborne costs are determined by vessel size, fuel cost and shipping distance between 

regions.

– Implemented new model in the upcoming International Energy Outlook (IEO2021)

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 7

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Legislation and regulations update

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 8

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
EPA CO2 regulations included in AEO

• Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule vacated in January 2021 will not be represented in AEO2022

– In AEO2021 with ACE in place, the NEMS Electricity Markets Module (EMM) required existing coal units to 

either upgrade to a heat rate improvement (HRI) option identified in EIA’s CPP study or retire by 2025; this 

approach relies on the 2015 EIA study of heat rate improvement (HRI) potential and costs for existing coal units

– As of May 2021, a replacement rule has not been proposed (and the Clean Power Plan (CPP) is not back in 

effect). EPA put out a memorandum explicitly stating that no CAA 111(d) regulation is currently in place: 

“Because the court vacated ACE and did not expressly reinstate the CPP, EPA understands the decision as 

leaving neither of those rules, and thus no CAA section 111(d) regulation, in place with respect to greenhouse 

gas (GHG) emissions from electric generating units (EGUs).” 

• New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) limit CO2 emissions from new plants

– The EPA released proposed revisions that would eliminate the Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) 

requirement and specify CO2 emission rates of 2,000 lb CO2/MWh-gross for large units (super-critical), 1,900 lb

for small units (sub-critical), and 2,200 lb for new coal refuse-fired units. EPA would also adjust the rules for 

modified units

• A 3% adder is applied to the cost of capital for new coal across all AEO cases

– The adder applies to new coal units or upgrades to existing units without maximum sequestration options (90% 

removal) to account for risk of future tightening of CO2 emissions standards and other policies affecting coal use

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 9

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
EPA air quality regulations affecting electricity generation

• The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) are included in all AEO cases

– On July 17, 2020, EPA finalized a revision to the 2012 MATS rule based on its determination that it is not “appropriate 

and necessary” to regulate hazardous air pollutants (HAP) emissions from power plants under Section 112 of the Clean 

Air Act.

– EPA also determined that “emissions of HAP have been reduced such that residual risk is at acceptable levels, that there 

are no developments in HAP emissions controls to achieve further cost-effective reductions beyond the current 

standards, and, therefore, no changes to the MATS rule are warranted.” (quoted from EPA website; emphasis added).

• EPA’s Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) is included in all AEO cases

– On March 15, 2021, EPA finalized the Revised Cross-State Air Pollution Rule Update for the 2008 ozone National 

Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). Starting in the 2021 ozone season, the rule will require additional emissions 

reductions of nitrogen oxides (NOX) from power plants in 12 states. These reductions will be included in AEO2022, but 

minimal impact is expected because many EMM regions are solving well below the NOX limits.

• Regional Haze compliance is reflected in survey Form EIA-860 filings as each coal plant 

complies

– Compliance follows from State Implementation Plans due on July 31, 2021 and implemented by 2028; Regional Haze 

Reform Roadmap dated September 11, 2018 

– On June 30, 2020, EPA reaffirmed a 2017 determination that participation in CSAPR qualifies as a best available retrofit 

technology alternative to satisfy Regional Haze requirements (for example, Texas)

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 10

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Other EPA regulations affecting coal generating units but not 

explicitly modeled in NEMS

• EPA’s Effluent Limitation Guidelines (ELG) compliance is reflected in survey Form EIA-860 filings as each coal plant 

takes action to comply 

– EPA’s Proposed Rule was published November 22, 2019 to:

• Extend compliance deadlines for up to two years

• Expand technology options for achieving compliance

• Provide flexibility in managing ELG systems under a voluntary incentives program that allows facilities until 2028 to implement 

new limits if they adopt additional measures to achieve stricter limitations on specific pollutants

• Impose less-stringent requirements for high-flow facilities, low-utilization units, and facilities retiring by 2028

• EPA and the Department of the Army published the Navigable Water Protection Rule on April 21, 2020 after repealing 

the Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rule in September 2019

– Under the final Navigable Waters Protection Rule, Jurisdictional Waters consists of four clear categories that 

are federally regulated:

• The territorial seas and traditional navigable waters

• Perennial and intermittent tributaries to those waters

• Certain lakes, ponds, and impoundments,

• Wetlands adjacent to jurisdictional waters

– Non-Jurisdictional Waters: The final rule also details 12 categories of exclusions (in other words features that 

are not “waters of the United States”), such as features that only contain water in direct response to rainfall (that 

is, ephemeral features), groundwater, many ditches, prior converted cropland, and waste treatment systems.

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 11

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Other EPA regulations affecting coal generating units but not 

explicitly modeled in NEMS (continued)

• EPA issued a rule on August 28, 2020 to update 2015 Coal Combustion Residual 

(CCR) regulations in response to a August 2018 court ruling that certain provisions 

were insufficiently protective of public health

– The final rule defines clay-lined impoundments as “lined” and allow unlined surface implements to continue 

to receive coal ash unless they leak. It set revised date of April 11, 2021 by which unlined surface 

impoundments and units that failed the aquifer location restriction must cease receiving waste and initiate 

closure or retrofit

– Revisions to the alternative closure provisions that would grant certain facilities additional time to develop 

alternative capacity to manage their waste streams (including additional waste - primarily non-CCR 

wastewater - generated at the facility) before they must stop receiving waste and initiate closure of their 

surface impoundments.

– The final rule defines clay-lined impoundments as “lined” and allows unlined surface implements to continue 

to receive coal ash unless they leak. It set a revised date of April 11, 2021, by which unlined surface 

impoundments and units that failed the aquifer location restriction must stop receiving waste and either close 

or retrofit unit

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 12

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
State policies affecting U.S. coal use

• Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative expanding to include Virginia in AEO2022 

– Virginia Clean Economy Act (Senate Bill 851/House Bill 1526)

– 2021: CO2 allowance of 27.16/metric ton (mt)

– Allocation decreases each year through 2030 by 0.84/mt CO2, and remains at 19.6/mt of CO2 thereafter

– Dominion Energy and Appalachian Power required to retire carbon-emitting electric generating units by Dec. 31, 2045

• Oregon passed S.B. 1547 in 2016 that requires utilities to exit out-of-state coal contracts by 2030

– Potential implications for coal holdings by PacifiCorp, including Jim Bridger (WY; 2/3 owner), Hunter, Huntington, Dave 

Johnston, Naughton, Wyodak, Craig (partial owner), Colstrip (partial owner), and Hayden (partial owner)

– Wyoming passed Senate File 159 requiring utilities to make a good faith attempt to sell coal plants purchased under an 

agreement approved by the state’s commission. The ruling also specified ratepayers in Wyoming would assume the costs 

of buying the coal plant in operation

• U.S. Pacific-Northwest coal terminal development unlikely to move forward

– Lawsuit is ongoing by the proposed, 44-MMtpy Millennium terminal’s stakeholders to challenge Washington state’s 2017 

denial of the Clean Water Act Section 401 certification

– Army Corps revived its environmental review of the project in October 2018, 2019, although it cannot issue a permit for the 

project unless the Washington State’s certification denial is reversed or set aside

– State board’s shoreline decision to deny construction permits was affirmed by state appeals court in March 2020.

– Lighthouse Resources, the Millennium project sponsors have filled for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and have been unable to find 

a buyer for the port during bankruptcy reorganization.

– Ridley expansion could free up some capacity at Westshore for U.S. exports through Canada

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 13

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
State RPS policies will be finalized toward the end of the AEO cycle 

14

WA: 100% x 2045 

OR: 50%x 2040* 

(large utilities)

CA: 100% 

x2045

MT: 15% x 2015

NV: 100% x

2050

AZ: 15% x 

2025*

NM: 100% x 2045

HI: 100% x 2045

CO: 30% x 2020

MN:26.5% 

x 2025)

MI: 10% x 

WI: 2015*† 10% 

2015

MO:15% x 

2021

IA: 105 MW

IL: 25% 

x 2026

OH: 8.5% x 

2026

NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs)

ME: 100% x 2050

30 states and DC have a 

Renewable Portfolio Standard 

(RPS) 

No Change in RPS from AEO2021

Changes in RPS from AEO2021

DC

TX: 5,880 MW x 2015*

NH: 25.2%x 2025

VT: 75% x 2032

MA: 35% x 2030

RI: 38.5% x 2035

CT: 48% x 2030

NY:100% x 

2040

PA: 18% x 2021

NJ: 54.1% x 2031

DE: 25% x 2026

MD: 50% x 2030

DC: 100% x 2040

VA: 100% x 

2050

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Recent coal protection attempts by western US states

• Montana:

– Two new laws

• Disputes among the Colstrip power plant’s six owners must be settled through Montana courts, 

instead of Washington as currently required by the Colstrip Ownership and Operation Agreement. 

The law invalidates contracts that don't settle disputes through Montana courts.

• If a company refuses to share in the operating costs or takes actions that bring about the closure of a 

facility (Colstrip) without obtaining the consent of all the co-owners, it would be considered an "unfair 

or deceptive trade practice.” Montana's attorney general could issue fines of up to $100,000 per day.

• Wyoming: 

– A law signed on April 6, 2021 creates a $1.2 million fund to support litigation to protect Wyoming’s coal 

interests. What these interest include is unclear, but it might support litigation against the State of 

Washington for prohibiting construction of a coal export terminal.

15 Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
AEO2021 assumptions and trends

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 16

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
What is the Reference case? • The Reference case projection assumes trend improvement in known technologies along with a 

view of economic and demographic trends reflecting the current views of leading economic 

forecasters and demographers.

• The Reference case generally assumes that current laws and regulations affecting the energy 

sector, including sunset dates for laws that have them, are unchanged throughout the projection 

period.

• The potential impacts of proposed legislation, regulations, and standards are not included.

• We addresses the uncertainty inherent in energy projections by developing side sensitivity cases 

with different assumptions of macroeconomic growth, world oil prices, technological progress, and 

energy policies.

• Projections in the AEO should be interpreted with a clear understanding of the assumptions that 

inform them and the limitations inherent in any modeling effort.

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 17

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021

Note: Onsite generation is electricity produced onsite for own use.

Electricity demand grows modestly throughout the projection period

18

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2020

history projections

High 

Economic 

Growth

Reference

Low 

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

199020202050199020202050199020202050199020202050

onsite 

generation

purchased 

electricity

residential industrial

commercial transportation

U.S. electricity use growth rate,

three-year rolling average

AEO2021 economic growth cases

percentage growth 

U.S. electricity use by end-use sector 

AEO2021 Reference case 

billion kilowatthours

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Electricity generating capacity increases 52% to 84% across AEO 

cases; additions come mostly from solar, wind, and natural gas

19

26 94 23 97 21

375 253 466 297 446

114 200

105 237 121

435

563 385

657

206

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

additions

Reference case Low Oil and 

Gas Supply case

High Oil and Gas 

Supply case

solar

wind

natural gas 

and oil

nuclear

other

coal

2 6 2

Low Renewables 

Cost case

High Renewables 

Cost case

2

-29 -14 -59 -58 -26 -111 -91 -128 -120 -107

-49 -64 -52 -58 -48

-400

-200

0

retirements

Cumulative electricity generating capacity additions and retirements (2021–2050)

AEO2021 selected cases

gigawatts

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021
Relatively high levelized cost of electricity for coal prohibits the addition of 

coal in any case evaluated in AEO2021

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2021”, February 2020, excerpted from Table 1b 

(2026) and Table B1b (2040)

20

0 2 4 6 8 10

Combined Cycle

Wind, Onshore

Solar PV

Adv. Nuclear...

Coal USC

Combined Cycle

Wind, Onshore

Solar PV

Adv. Nuclear...

Coal USC

2040

New power plant costs

2018 cents per kilowatt-hour

incremental

transmission

costs

fixed

costs

variable costs,

2025 capital costs including fuel

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Natural gas prices continue to range between $3.50 and $4.00 per 

million British thermal units

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021

21

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2020

history projections

Low Oil and Gas Supply

Reference

High Oil and Gas Supply

Natural gas spot price at Henry Hub AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases

2020 dollars per million British thermal units

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021
Coal productivity projected to continue declining, 

except in the Eastern Interior

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021.

22

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

1996 2002 2008 2014 2020 2026 2032 2038 2044 2050

short tons per miner hour

Eastern Interior

Northern Appalachia

Central Appalachia

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

 20.0

 25.0

 30.0

 35.0

 40.0

 45.0

 50.0

1996 2002 2008 2014 2020 2026 2032 2038 2044 2050

[annual growth 2020-2050]

short tons per miner hour

Powder River Basin

Gulf Lignite

Rocky Mountain

Dakota Lignite

2020 

history projections

2020 

history projections

0.3%

-2.0%

-2.8%

Major eastern producing regions Major western producing regions

-0.4%

-0.8%

-0.8%

-2.2%

[annual growth 2020-2050]

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Coal exports

billion short tons 

rest of world

United States

other non-OECD 

America

Eurasia

Africa

other non-OECD 

Asia

Australia and New 

Zealand

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Coal imports 

billion short tons

rest of world

India

other non- OECD Asia

China

South Korea

Japan

OECD Europe

International seaborne coal trade projected in AEO2021

23

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021
AEO2021 results with emphasis on coal

24

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021
Coal-fired generating capacity decreases through 2025 in all AEO 

side cases and is sensitive to the projection for natural gas prices

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 25

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

$20

$24

$28

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Low Oil and Gas Supply

Reference

High Oil and Gas Supply

Electric generating capacity Average delivered natural gas prices to the electric power sector

gigawatts (GW) 2020 dollars per million British thermal units

natural gas prices

coal-fired capacity

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021. 

2020 

history projections

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

221 GW

105 GW

129 GW

76 GW

139 GW

157 GW

115 GW
Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021

Net summer coal-fired generating capacity in the electric power sector declines 

disproportionately by region in the AEO2021 Reference case

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021. 

26

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

ERCOT

FRCC

MISO

NPCC

PJM

SERC

SPP

WECC

2020

2050

retirements

U.S. total 

2020: 219 GW

AEO2021 2050: 103 GW

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

gigawatts (GW) 
Electricity generation increases by one-third; natural gas prices 

influence competition with renewables

27

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021.

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021

Natural gas-fired generation and renewables substitute for each other; coal and 

nuclear generation declines in Low Renewables Cost case

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021

28

All-sector electricity generation from selected fuel by case, 2010–50

billion kilowatthours

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2020

projections

High Renewables Cost case

billion kilowatthours

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2020

projections

Low Renewables Cost case

billion kilowatthours

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990 2010 2030 2050

2020

history projections

natural gas

coal

nuclear

renewables

Reference case

billion kilowatthours

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021

Electricity sector consumption drives total U.S. coal disposition with 

stable industrial demand and slowly increasing export demand

29

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

electric power sector 

consumption

net exports

other consumption

High Oil and Gas 

Supply

Low Oil and Gas 

AEO2021 Supply

Reference case

U.S. coal consumption and net exports 

million short tons

2020

history projection

• Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal production decreases through 2025 as a result of retiring coal-fired electric 

generating capacity, but federal rule compliance and higher natural gas prices lead to coal 

production leveling off

30 Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2050

AEO2020 coal production by region

million short tons

2020

history projections

total

West

Interior

Appalachia

Reference case

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2015 2050

2020

projections

Low Oil and Gas Supply case

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2015 2050

2020

projections

High Oil and Gas Supply case
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Northern Appalachia

Central Appalachia

Southern Appalachia

Total Appalachia

Appalachian coal production significantly declines through 2020, 

although eastern coal exports provide some support through 2050

million short tons

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021.

Hyperlink to detailed regional coal production in the AEO Interactive browser. 

, 

2020

history projections

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 31

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Reference case
Interior coal production has declined in recent years but Illinois Basin coal mines are 

still productive, although lignite regions show continued to decline due to power 

plant closures million short tons

Total Interior

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Eastern Interior

Gulf Lignite

2020

history projections

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021.

.

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 32

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Reference case
Western coal production has declined at its fastest rate since 2009

million short tons

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Other West

2020

history projections

Wyoming PRB

Total West

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 33

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021.

Reference case
Average U.S. minemouth coal prices remain relatively stable in 

light of declining production volumes

2019 dollars per short ton

Appalachia

Interior

West

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

AEO2021

U.S. Average

2020

History Projections

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 34

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021.

Hyperlink to EIA Interactive AEO Table Browser
U.S. coal exports driven by strong demand for coking coal for steel production

million short tons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

coking

steam

history projections

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 35

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Projections – U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual 

Energy Outlook 2021; History –. Quarterly Coal Report.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
For more information

David Fritsch, AEO Coal Models and Projections | David.Fritsch@eia.gov |(202) 587-6538

Chris Namovicz, Team Lead, LTEM, Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling| Chris.Namovicz@eia.gov | (202) 586-7120

Bonnie West, STEO Coal Models and Projections | Bonnie.West@eia.gov | (202) 586-2415 

Kien Chau, IEO Coal Models and Projections | Kien.Chau@eia.gov | (202) 586-4280

Lindsay Aramayo, AEO and STEO Coal Models | Lindsay.Aramayo@eia.gov | (202) 586-7277

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

U.S. Energy Information Administration homepage | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state

Coal Data Browser | www.eia.gov/coal/data/browser

U.S. Energy Mapping System | www.eia.gov/state/maps.php?v=Coal

International Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/beta/international/?src=home-b1

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 36

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Supplemental Slides

37

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021
Addressing voluntary commitments to decarbonization

and implications for coal retirements

• No change in EIA precedent: “current laws and regulations” will remain the basis for 

input assumptions to Reference Case

• Common question in preceding working groups: How does EIA account for utility 

plans/commitments to de-carbonize?

– We view Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs) as more aspirational and thus not appropriate to model

– Increasing number and specificity of decarbonization announcements may indicate a move toward 

implementation 

• We are considering different approaches to if and how to incorporate IRP statements 

into modeling

• We completed supplemental research on announced coal retirements during the past 

year to supplement IRP reviews and help identify additional coal retirements to include 

in the Reference case

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 38

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Other federal legislation affecting coal

• Coal excise tax rates for the Black Lung Disability Trust Fund increased as of January 1, 

2020 to $1.10 per ton for underground, and to $0.55 for surface-mined coal, or 4.4% of 

the sales price, whichever is lower (not applicable to lignite coal and coal intended for 

export). These rates expired on December 31, 2020 and returenedto $0.55 and $0.25 per 

ton, or 2% of the sales price, whichever is lower. 

• Section 45Q tax credit for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is included in the AEO, 

which may have indirect implications for coal under certain market conditions

– Per the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018, rates are $50 per metric ton of CO2 for secure geologic 

storage, and $35 per metric ton of CO2 for enhanced oil or gas Recovery (EOR/EGR) or 

utilization projects initiated before January 1, 2024, and for the first 12 years of operation

– The modeling of CCS and 45Q occurs in the Electricity Market Module (EMM); Capture, 

Transport, Utilization and Storage Module (CTUS); and the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM) 

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables Modeling 

Team, Washington, D.C., May 26, 2021 39

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE 

OR CITE. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.