U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Macro-Industrial Working Group Meeting 2: 

Industrial updates and Preliminary results

Macro Industrial Working Group (MIWG)

Industrial Team: Kelly Perl, Team Leader; Peter Gross, Susan Hicks, Paul Otis

February 18, 2016 | Washington, DC

Preliminary Results. Do not Disseminate.
AEO2016 additions for the Industrial Demand Module 

(IDM)

• Technology choice models complete; end of 5 year effort

• Benchmarking improvements

– Individual industry benchmarking of tables complete

– On-going effort to coordinate reporting and benchmarking with refinery model (LFMM) 

• Data updates

• Regulation updates

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 2
Technology choice for process flow industries

• Allow for technology choice within individual process flows for energyintensive industries (e.g., anode production for primary aluminum smelting)

• All submodules complete: Cement & Lime (AEO2012), Aluminum 

(AEO2013), Glass (AEO2014) , Steel (AEO2016), Pulp & Paper (AEO2016)

• Benefits of Technology choice models 

– Flexibility in modeling primary vs. secondary processing

– Allows for an explicit industrial energy efficiency side case

– Allows for technology deployment based on economics of capital and fuel costs

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 3
Data updates & regulation

• Data

– Economic Census (2012) for nonmanufacturing – completed

– Calibration to achieve greater precision in historic data and benchmarking; will start with 

natural gas

– Did complete 860/923 CHP data update this year for 2013 & 2014

• Regulation updates

– Updated motor efficiencies to reflect latest motor efficiency standards & pump standards

– Clean Power Plan: Part of AEO2016 Reference Case; IDM does not model, but responds to 

price changes that other modules cause

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 4
Industrial results

Excludes Refining

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 5
Industrial energy consumption higher for AEO2016 

reference case on higher out-year shipments

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Source: AEO2016 runs Ref2016.0214a & Ref2016.0214a_nocpp; AEO2015 Reference case

6

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Industrial Energy consumption, 2012-2040

Ref2016.0214a

Ref2016.0214a_nocpp

AEO2015 Reference Case

quadrillion Btu
Industrial natural gas consumption higher for AEO2016 

reference case; bulk chemicals largely responsible

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Source: AEO2016 runs Ref2016.0214a & Ref2016.0214a_nocpp; AEO2015 Reference case

7

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Industrial Natural Gas consumption, 2012-2040

Ref2016.0214a

Ref2016.0214a_nocpp

AEO2015 Reference Case

quadrillion Btu
Industrial natural gas consumption and petroleum shares 

increase modestly; other fuel shares decrease modestly

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Source: AEO2016 run Ref2016.0214a

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Preliminary AEO2016 Industrial Energy Consumption by Fuel

Coal

NaturalGas

Purchased Electricity

Petroleum

quadrillion Btu
AEO2016 CHP generation lower owing to model changes & 

new history

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Source: Ref2016.0214a; AEO2015 Reference case

9

 -

 20

 40

 60

 80

 100

 120

 140

 160

 180

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

CHP Generation AEO2016 v AEO2015

Ref2016.0214a

AEO2015

Reference Case

billion kWh
AEO2016 CHP generation – renewables have higher 

relative share because of paper modelling changes

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Source: Ref2016.0214a

10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Preliminary AEO2016 CHP Generation by Fuel

Renewables

Coal

Petroleum& Other

NaturalGas

billion kWh
Individual industry results

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 11
Bulk chemicals energy consumption considerably higher in 

AEO2016; shipments higher in out years

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Source: Ref2016.0214a; AEO2015 Reference case

12

 -

 2,000

 4,000

 6,000

 8,000

 10,000

 12,000

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Bulk Chemicals Energy Consumption AEO2016 v AEO2015

Ref2016.0214a

AEO2015

Reference Case

trillion Btu
Bulk chemicals feedstock consumption much higher in 

AEO2016, especially for natural gas

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Source: Ref2016.0214a; AEO2015 Reference case

13

 -

 1,000

 2,000

 3,000

 4,000

 5,000

 6,000

 7,000

 8,000

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

AEO2016 Bulk Chemicals Feedstocks

HGL

Naphtha & other 

petrochem feedstocks

NaturalGas

trillion Btu

 -

 1,000

 2,000

 3,000

 4,000

 5,000

 6,000

 7,000

 8,000

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

AEO2015 Bulk Chemicals Feedstocs

HGL

NaturalGas

Naphtha & other 

petrochem feedstocks

trillion Btu
Paper shipments and accounting for recycled steam in new 

model explain AEO2016 vs. AEO2015 energy differences

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Source: Ref2016.0214a; AEO2015 Reference case

14

 1,500

 1,750

 2,000

 2,250

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Paper Energy consumption AEO2016 v AEO2015

Ref2016.0214a

AEO2015 Reference

Case

trillion Btu

 10.50

 11.00

 11.50

 12.00

 12.50

 13.00

 13.50

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Paper Energy Intensity AEO2016 v AEO2015

Ref2016.0214a

AEO2015

Reference Case

trillion Btu/billion 2009 USD
Paper: Renewables largest share of energy consumption; 

relatively higher renewable CHP for AEO2016

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Source: Ref2016.0214a

15

 -

 250

 500

 750

 1,000

 1,250

 1,500

 1,750

 2,000

 2,250

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Paper Energy Intensity by Fuel, AEO2016 

Renewables

Coal

NaturalGas

Purchased Electricity

trillion Btu
Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Iron & Steel: Lower near term shipments, stagnant blast furnace 

additions explain different AEO2016 energy consumption

Source: Ref2016.0214a; AEO2015 Reference case

16

 800

 900

 1,000

 1,100

 1,200

 1,300

 1,400

 1,500

 1,600

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Iron & Steel Energy Consumption AEO2016 v AEO2015 

Ref2016.0214a

AEO2015 Reference

Case

trillion Btu
Iron & Steel: Capacity mothballed in early prediction years, 

starts coming back online in early 2020s

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Source: Ref2016.0214a

17

 -

 200

 400

 600

 800

 1,000

 1,200

 1,400

 1,600

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Iron & Steel Energy Consumption by Fuel, AEO2016

Petroleum

Coal

NaturalGas

Purchased Electricity

trillion Btu
Iron & Steel: almost all growth is in electric arc furnaces

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Source: Ref2016.0214a

18

 -

 20

 40

 60

 80

 100

 120

 140

 160

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

BF/BOF & EAF Capacity 

EAF

BF/BOF

Capacity Index 2012 Total =100
Iron & Steel: Direct Reduced Iron capacity adopted 

relatively early

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Source: Ref2016.0214a

19

 80

 90

 100

 110

 120

 130

 140

 150

 160

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

DRI (Direct Reduced Iron) Capacity 

Capacity Index 2015 Total =100
Memo on this meeting and presentation can 

be found here in about a month:

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/macroindustrial/

20 Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016
Thank you for your attention!

Macro Team:

Kay Smith (202) 586-1132 | kay.smith@eia.gov

Vipin Arora (202) 586-1048 | vipin.arora@eia.gov

Russell Tarver (202) 586-3991 | russell.tarver@eia.gov

Elizabeth Sendich (202) 586-7145 | elizabeth.sendich@eia.gov

Industrial Team: EIA-OECEAIndustrialTeam@eia.gov

Kelly Perl (202) 586-1743

Peter Gross (202) 586-8822

Susan Hicks (202) 586-4388

Paul Otis (202) 586-2306

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 21