U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2013

1st Coal Working Group

Mike Mellish, Economist

Diane Kearney, Operations Research Analyst

August 2, 2012| Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Issues/assumptions for AEO2013

2

• Compressed AEO modeling and production schedule

• Re-coding of coal model from Fortran to AIMMS

• Extension to 2040

• Current laws and regulations 

- Cross State Air Pollution Rule

- Mercury and Air Toxics Standards

- State Renewable Portfolio Standards

• 3% higher cost of capital for new coal plants (including coal-based synthetic liquid 

plants) and capital investment projects at existing coal-fired power plants

• Expect stronger outlook for exports in AEO2013

• Review assumptions and modeling for coal-to-liquids and coal- and biomass-toliquids

Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Preliminary AEO2013: Planned Coal-Fired Capacity Additions

(megawatts)

3 Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, “Annual Electric Generator Report”

FACILITY 

CODE PLANT NAME

GENERATOR 

ID STATE

PLANT 

TYPE

ENERGY 

SOURCE

START 

YEAR

START 

MONTH

SUMMER 

CAPABILITY

56068 Elm Road Generating Station 2 WI PC BIT 2011 1 633.8

6195 John Twitty Energy Center ST2 MO PC SUB 2011 1 279

6071 Trimble County 2 KY PC BIT 2011 1 731.9

6180 Oak Grove OG2 TX PC LIG 2011 4 825

60 Whelan Energy Center 2 NE PC SUB 2011 6 225

56609 Dry Fork Station 01 WY PC SUB 2011 11 405

56671 Longview Power LLC MKA01 WV PC BIT 2011 12 700

56808 Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center 1 VA PC BIT 2012 5 585

55856 Prairie State Generatng Station PC1 IL PC BIT 2012 6 800

2721 Cliffside 6 NC PC BIT 2012 8 825

1004 Edwardsport ST,CT1,CT2 IN IGCC BIT 2012 10 586.1

56564 John W Turk Jr Power Plant 1 AR PC SUB 2012 11 600

55856 Prairie State Generatng Station PC2 IL PC BIT 2012 12 800

55360 Two Elk Generating Station GEN1 WY PC WC 2013 1 275

56611 Sandy Creek Energy Station S01 TX PC SUB 2013 2 936.5

7570 Spiritwood 1 ND PC LIG 2013 9 62

57037 Kemper County IGCC Project 1A,1B,1C MS IGCC LIG 2014 5 593

3799.7

6062.6

9862.3

2011

2012-2014

Total

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Planned coal-fired capacity retirements in the 

electric power sector by coal demand region, 2011-2035

4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 AEO2012 AEO2013 Preliminary

gigawatts, net summer

Note: Planned retirements represent those reported to EIA by generators in the electric power sector.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case; and 

EIA, Form EIA-860, “Annual Electric Generator Report”

Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Coal production by region, 1970-2035

5

million short tons

Appalachia

Interior

Western

Total

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

History 2010 Projections

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report. 

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case; and Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2012.

Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

Short Term Energy Outlook, 

July 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Average Minemouth Coal Price by Region, 1980-2035

6

2010 dollars per short ton

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Note: Historical price data for Wyoming’s PRB is represented by data for Campbell county. 

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report; 

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case.

Western 

(including WY, PRB)

Interior

Appalachia

WY, Powder River Basin (PRB)

U.S. Average

History 2010 Projections

Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Coal production, 2035 (and 2010) 

(million short tons)

7

233

7 (14)

62

42 (29)

1 (2) 140 (110)

182 (130)

88 (186)

21 (20)

58 (39)

37 (29)

39 (46)

514 (428)*

2 (2)**

81 (44)

U.S. Total: 

1,212 (1,084)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case

* Includes production from all mines in 

Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.

** Includes production from mines in both 

Alaska and Washington.

Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Average annual growth in coal mining labor 

productivity for selected supply regions (percent)

8

Coal Supply Region 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2035

Northern Appalachia 5.4 5.5 -2.2 -1.3

Central Appalachia 7.3 4.4 -5.9 -3.9

Eastern Interior 4.8 3.7 -1.4 -0.7

Gulf Lignite 2.6 2.4 -3.5 -2.6

Dakota Lignite 6.0 1.0 -2.7 -1.0

Western Montana 4.6 2.0 -2.8 -1.3

WY, Northern Powder River Basin 7.5 3.2 -2.9 -1.9

WY, Southern Powder River Basin 7.2 4.9 -2.5 -1.9

Rocky Mountain 7.8 5.5 -3.5 -2.0

U.S. Average 7.1 6.2 -2.3 -1.3

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report; 

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case

Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Coal consumption by sector, 1970-2035

9

million short tons

Electricity

Other Coal-to-Liquids

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

AEO2012 Early Release:

Total

AEO2012 Reference Case:

Total

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review; 

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case.

History 2010 Projections

Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Coal Exports by region, 2010-2035

10

million short tons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Interior

Short Term Energy Outlook, 

July 2012

Source: 2010: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Distribution Report; 

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case; and Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2012.

Appalachia

Western

Total

Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2035

11

billion kilowatthours

Coal

Petroleum

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Renewables

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Note: Includes generation from plants in both the electric power and end-use sectors.

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review; 

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case; and Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2012.

History 2010 Projections

Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

Short Term Energy Outlook, 

July 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Average Delivered Price of Coal and Natural Gas 

to the Electric Power Sector, 1980-2035

12

2010 dollars per million Btu

Natural Gas

High Technically 

Recoverable 

Resource

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Short Term Energy Outlook, 

July 2012

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review and Electric Power Monthly;

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case; and Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2012.

History Projections

Coal

2010

Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Electricity Generation Shares by Fuel, 2007-2035 

13

49

22 19

9

45

24

20

10

38

27

20

14

38

28

18

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewable

2007

2010

2015

2035

percent

Note: Includes generation from plants in both the electric power and end-use sectors

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case

Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
Coal-fired generating capacity in the electric power sector by 

coal demand region, 2010 and 2035

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 AEO2012 Early Release: 2035 AEO2012 Reference: 2035

gigawatts, net summer

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Early Release and Reference Case

Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
15

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case

Electric Net Summer Generating Capacity by Fuel, 2007-2035 

(gigawatts)

Fuel 2007 2010 2015 2020 2035

Coal 311 318 286 281 285

 Electric Power Sector 308 313 282 275 275

 End-Use Sectors 4 4 4 7 10

Natural Gas 329 350 373 383 479

Petroleum 115 109 91 91 89

Nuclear Power 100 101 104 111 111

Renewable Sources 109 134 163 168 201

Other (includes pumped storage) 25 25 25 25 25

Total 990 1,036 1,042 1,059 1,190

Coal Team, Coal Working Group 

Washington, DC, August 2, 2012

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
For more information

16

Contact Information

Mike Mellish and Diane Kearney

U.S. Energy Information Administration 

Office of Energy Analysis

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team

michael.mellish@eia.gov, (202) 586-2136

diane.kearney@eia.gov, (202) 586-2415

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE