U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2016: 

LFMM preliminary results

AEO2016 Liquid Fuels Market Module Results

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas & Biofuels Analysis

February 24, 2016 | Washington, DC

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Discussion topics

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 2

• AEO2016 vs AEO2015 changes in LFMM

• Key preliminary results

– Crude and product prices

– Crude production, imports, exports

– Product exports

– Refinery utilization

– Biofuels production
AEO2016 vs AEO2015 changes in LFMM

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 3

• Crude

– Crude exports are allowed, unrestricted

– Revised methodology for determining by-grade crude price response

• Products

– Modified elasticities representing international product import and export curves (IEM) 

– All product curves are extended to 14 steps

• Logistics

– Updated pipeline and rail capacities and tariffs

• Policy

– Reinstated ethanol and biodiesel tax credits through 2016

– New RFS issued November 2015

• Updated pricing of fuel oil in Census Division 9
Brent spot price

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 4

AEO2015

AEO2016
Brent-WTI spread

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 5

AEO2016

AEO2015
Motor gasoline price

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 6

AEO2016

AEO2015
Diesel fuel price

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 7

AEO2016

AEO2015
Domestic crude oil production

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 8

AEO2016

AEO2015
Domestic NGPL production

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 9

AEO2016

AEO2015
Net imports of crude oil

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 10

AEO2016

AEO2015
Crude oil exports (mainly to Canada)

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 11

AEO2016

AEO2015
Product exports

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 12

AEO2016

AEO2015
Net import share of product supplied

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 13

AEO2016

AEO2015
Refinery utilization

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 14

AEO2016

AEO2015
Motor gasoline consumption declines, 

with small increase in E85 consumption

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 15

AEO2015

AEO2015

AEO2016

AEO2016

Total motor gasoline

consumption

Total E85

consumption
Total ethanol production remains steady, 

with lower levels from cellulosic sources

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 16

Total ethanol production

Cellulosic ethanol production

AEO2015

AEO2015

AEO2016

AEO2016
Residual fuel oil price in Census Division 9

- AEO2016

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 17

Resid fuel oil price

Brent price
Contacts

18

John Powell: john.powell@eia.gov

Mindi Farber-DeAnda: mindi.farber-deanda@eia.gov

Beth May: elizabeth.may@eia.gov

Adrian Geagla: adrian.geagla@eia.gov

Next Working Group Meeting

Tentatively planned for summer 2016.

Will present assumptions for AEO2017.

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
For more information

19 Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

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