WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

November 7, 2014

MEMORANDUM FOR: John Conti

Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis

Paul Holtberg

Team Leader

Analysis Integration Team

FROM: Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis

SUBJECT: Summary of Second AEO 2015 Working Group Meeting held on 

September 15, 2014

ATTENDEES: 21 EIA, 68 external (list provided following meeting summary)

Presentation topics included a review of the AEO2015 publication schedule and contents, an overview of 

model assumptions updates in the AEO2015, and a summary of preliminary results in the AEO2015 

Reference case. The presentation highlighted AEO2015 assumptions regarding environmental rules, 

retirements and new capacity, and capital costs for renewable plants. Results shown included electricity 

demand, generation by type, capacity additions by type, electricity and feedstock prices, coal production 

and prices by region, and coal exports.

Specific issues raised by working group participants included the following topics:

Modeling plant retirements and retrofits

A participant asked how EIA represents the retrofit/retire decision for electric power plants, and 

whether the cost assumptions for retrofits are uniform or plant specific. EIA staff responded that the 

cost assumptions are plant-specific.

Degradation of solar modules

A participant asked what assumptions EIA makes about the performance of solar PV systems over time, 

and whether it models performance degradation of modules. EIA responded that in the electric power 

sector, we do not explicitly model performance degradation of solar PV systems over time.

Capacity growth patterns

A participant asked why there appears to be a step increase in the level of annual capacity additions

starting in 2025. EIA responded that a combination of rising gas prices over time, the need for new 

capacity to meet demand, and retirements that occur around that time accounts for the increase. 

Another participant inquired about the lack of solar growth following 2016. EIA responded that minimal 

near-term need for new capacity combined with the 2016 reduction in the Investment Tax Credit from 

30% to 10% resulted in the reduction in solar capacity growth post-2016.
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Cost assumptions to keep older coal/gas plants operational

A participant asked what assumptions are made about expenditures necessary to keep coal/gas plants 

running. EIA responded that there are technology-specific cost adders for older plants after 30 years of 

operation.

Retirement of the Intermountain Power Plant

A participant asked why EIA assumes the 2025 retirement of the Intermountain Power Plant in Utah 

since the plant has not announced formal plans to retire. EIA responded that the plant’s contract with 

LADWP expires in 2025. EIA modeled the retirement coincident with the contract expiration in order to 

represent a reduction in the carbon intensity of generation owned or under contract to California 

utilities, consistent with SB1368. 

Declining Western coal production

A participant asked why Western coal production increases through 2023 before declining thereafter. 

EIA responded that MATS and declining demand contributes to this trend, and that they would also look 

into the issue further. In looking at the results in more detail an additional factor underlying the 

projected decline in Western coal production after 2013 is increasing competition from coal producers 

in the Interior supply region. 

Increasing coal exports

Another participant inquired about the increase in coal exports over the projection and the destination 

markets for those exports. EIA responded that Asian and, to a lesser extent, South American markets 

are the likely destination markets for projected coal exports, but that staff would need to take a closer 

look and get back to them on this particular question. In looking at the projections for U.S. coal exports, 

most of the projected growth between 2013 and 2040 in the preliminary NEMS run used for the working 

group meeting is to markets in Europe and Asia, but exports to the Americas also increases slightly in the 

projections. 

Coal mine productivity assumptions

A participant asked whether the AEO2015 included any updates in coal mining productivity 

assumptions. EIA responded that assumptions had not been updated at this point for the current AEO 

cycle, but that assumptions were being reviewed in light of the recent productivity growth that occurred 

in 2013 and that appears to be carrying forward into 2014.

Nuclear technology assumptions

A participant asked about what type of nuclear generation technology is assumed for new builds. EIA 

responded that cost assumptions are based on a Westinghouse AP1000.

Life-cycle technology cost comparisons

A participant asked whether EIA produces any metrics that allow for comparison of total life-cycle costs 

across technologies. EIA responded that it doesn’t generally have that level of detail in NEMS, and while 

some of these life-cycle costs are embedded in capital or fuel costs, they are not explicitly represented. 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

EIA also noted that it publishes the report on levelized cost of electricity, but that not all lifecycle costs 

would be embedded in this metric.

Attendees (* denotes non-EIA, + denotes online participant)

+*Charlie Acquard (NASUCA)

Greg Adams

+*Justin Adeer (NETL)

+*Robert Anderson (DOE)

Lori Aniti

+*Carrie Annand (Biopower)

JenAlyse Arena

+*Ed Arguello (CSU)

+*Justin Baca (SEIA)

*Aaron Bergman (DOE-EPSA)

+*Norman Bishop (Knight Piesold)

Erin Boedecker

Michelle Bowman

*Erin Boyd (DOE-EPSA)

Gwen Bredehoeft

+*John Brewer (NETL)

*Austin Brown (NREL)

+*John Caldwell (EEI)

+*Tom Canter (NCTA)

+*Mike Cashin (MN Power)

+*Daniel Chalk (DOE-NE)

+*Leslie Coleman (NMA)

John Conti

*Matthew Crozat (DOE-NE)

*Jared Daniels (DOE-FE)

Jim Diefenderfer

+*Marybeth Dietz (NETL)

*Paul Donohoo Vallett (DOE-EERE)

+*Donald Erpenbeck (MWH Global)

+*Brian Fisher (EPA)

+*Steve Frauenheim (EEI)

Marta Gospodarczyk

+*Eric Grol (NETL)

+*Gurcan Gulen (U Texas)

*Ron Hagan (DOE-NE)

*Zeryai Hagos (GE)

+*Maria Hanley (NETL)

Lance Harris

+*Jenny Heeter (NREL)

+*Holli Heiskell (NETL)

Tyler Hodge

+*Lola Infante

Elias Johnson

Diane Kearney

*Sikander Khan (DOE-FE)

Eric Krall

+*Eric Lantz (NREL)

+*Mark Lauby (NERC)

+*Jeff Leahey (Hyrdro.org)

*Michael Leifman (GE)

+*Michael Leitman (NRECA)

+*Jennifer Li (DOE)

Danielle Lowenthal-Savy

+*Trinh Ly (NERC)

+*Simon Mahan (Southern Clean Energy 

Alliance)

Cara Marcy

Laura Martin

+*Kellie Mattis (NETL)

Mike Mellish

+*Bill Meroney (EPA)

*David Meyer (DOE-OE)

+*David Meyer (OE)

*Gregory Mormon (Wood Mackenzie)

Chris Namovicz

Sam Napolitano

+*Elliott Nethercutt (NERC)

+*Chris Nichols (NETL)

+*Matt Nocella (Hydro.org)

*Seth Nowak (ACEEE)

+*Gavin Pickenpaugh (NETL)

*Kara Pokdaminer (DOE-EERE)

+*Michalene Reilly (HEPN)

*David Rosner (DOE-EPSA)
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

+*Sandy Sanders (OLI)

+*Sandra Sattler (USCUSA)

+*David Schmalzer (Argonne)

+*David Schoeberlein (DOE)

Nancy Slater Thompson

+*Daniel Steinberg (NREL)

+*Elyse Steiner (EPA)

+*Bill Stevens (EPA)

+*Joel Theis (NETL)

+*Michael Van Brunt (Covanta)

*Pete Whitman (DOE-EPSA)

+*Emily Williams (AWEA)

+*Frances Wood (OnLocation)

+*David Young (EPRI)

+*David Zayas (Hydro.org)

+*Charles Zelek (NETL)

*non-EIA attendees

+online attendees