October 15, 2012

MEMORANDUM FOR: JOHN CONTI

ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR FOR ENERGY 

ANALYSIS

 PAUL HOLTBERG 

TEAM LEADER

ANALYSIS INTEGRATION TEAM

JIM TURNURE

DIRECTOR

OFFICE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND EFFICIENCY 

ANALYSIS

FROM: TRANSPORTATION CONSUMPTION & EFFICIENCY

ANALYSIS TEAM

SUBJECT: Second AEO2013 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Summary (presented on 10-09-2012)

Attendees: Dave Gelman (New West Technologies)

Kevin Green (DOT/VOLPE)

Carrie Huges-Cromwick (EIA/OES)

Jim Kliesch (UCS)

Therese Langer (ACEEE)

Kevin Lillis (EIA/OEA)

Fred Mayes (EIA/OEA)

Kathleen Ratcliff (DOE/CF)

Ed Nam (EPA/OTAQ)

Tien Nguyen (DOE/EERE)

Tom White (DOE/PI)

Pete Whitman (DOE/PI)

Lixin Zhao (DOT/NHTSA)

Attending by Phone: Jeff Alson (EPA/OTAQ)

Alicia Birky (TA Engineering)

Jeff Cole (EPA/OTAQ)

Ben Ellies (EPA/OTAQ)

Ken Howden (DOE/EERE)

Aaron Hula (EPA/OTAQ)

Ari Kahan (EPA/OTAQ)

Ken Katz (DOT/NHTSA)

John Meyer (SAIC)

Jesse Prentice-Dunn (Sierra Club)

Kevin Stork (DOE/EERE)
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Luke Tonachel (NRDC)

Presenters: Nick Chase

Trisha Hutchins

John Maples

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

The working group presentation provided a discussion of the major updates made for the AEO 

2013 and preliminary projections resulting from those updates and other model changes that 

affect the transportation projections. An overview of the updates and preliminary projections 

discussed are included in the presentation materials provided as a separate attachment.

Specific discussion/questions

Light duty vehicle technology update:

1. EIA was asked to define micro and mild hybrid technologies as shown in the 

technology menu and state how they compared to those in the CAFE final 

rulemaking. EIA indicated that micro hybrids use a 12 volt start-stop system and 

provide no motive power to the vehicle and that the mild hybrid uses a 42 to 110 volt 

high efficiency system with start-stop capability and minimal motive power. EIA 

noted that both are a package technology that includes electric or electro-hydraulic 

power steering and improved efficiency accessories. The micro hybrid systems are 

similar in assumption across EIA/EPA/NHTSA, but there are inconsistencies across 

all three Agencies in the definition of mild hybrids. EIA stated that a previous 

discussion with EPA had already taken place and that EPA recommended the use of 

one particular technology in the rule as the mild hybrid. 

2. EIA was asked if the new technology list employed cost reductions through learning 

or economies of scale. EIA stated that the learning employed in the model mimics 

the time based learning used in the 2017-2025 CAFE final rulemaking.

3. EIA was asked if it had base year market penetrations for the new technology menu. 

EIA stated that an analysis was completed that calculated the base year market 

penetration for each technology using data obtained from EPA and NHTSA as well as 

Ward’s Automotive Group.

4. EIA was asked about the use of turbocharging and downsizing as a technology 

choice. EIA responded by noting the use of data provided by EPA and NHTSA and 

that such technology was a package with several other required technologies. A 

follow-up question about the use of cooled exhaust gas recirculation was answered by 

noting the use in level 3 turbocharging.

5. EIA was asked about whether dis-synergistic impacts of adding various technologies

were taken into account. EIA answered in the affirmative and that such data was 

taken from the EPA and NHTSA Final Rule and by use of NHTSA’s Lumped 

Parameter Model. 
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6. EIA was asked if other technology attributes are considered in addition to cost and 

fuel economy improvement. EIA answered in the affirmative, mentioning 

horsepower and weight.

Heavy duty natural gas vehicles: 

7. EIA was asked what average payback period was used to determine the purchase of 

natural gas vehicles. EIA indicated that it previously used a 2.1 year payback and 

now uses a 3 year payback to determine costs effectiveness to consumers. 

8. Given potential safety and logistical issues associated with LNG, EIA was asked if it 

was planning on researching or considering the possibility that all heavy trucks might 

be fueled by compressed natural gas. Because of inherent uncertainties associated 

with the development of natural gas refueling infrastructure and market acceptance of 

the available on-board storage options, EIA indicated due to these uncertainties there 

is limited information and that when more information becomes available it will be 

incorporated into the modeling.

9. EIA was asked if heavy duty vehicle projections of natural gas consumption included 

buses. EIA indicated that the information provided in the slides was for heavy duty 

trucks only and that buses were modeled separately, but that buses also showed 

significant increases in natural gas consumption over the projection.

Preliminary Projections:

10. EIA was asked how it defined a car and light truck and if that definition changed over 

the forecast. EIA stated that the car and light truck split determined in the base year 

reflected the data provided in the NHTSA database and that shifts in the projected 

sales of cars and light trucks were based on the definitions used for the underlying 

data in the base year inputs. Potential changes in vehicle design that could occur as a 

result of car and light truck definitions described in the CAFE rulemaking are not 

explicitly modeled.

11. EIA was asked if it included the model year 2022 through 2025 augural CAFE 

standards provided in the final rule in the preliminary AEO2013 projections. EIA 

stated that the CAFE standards represented in the projections did include the augural 

CAFE standards.

12. EIA was asked if the CAFE compliance values achieved in the preliminary 

projections were the same as those projected in the AEO2012 CAFE case. EIA 

indicated that the current new LDV fuel economy projections were lower than last 

year’s projections due to increased footprint sizes for cars and light trucks in the base 

year and due to increased light truck sales relative to last year’s projections. Lower 

projected fuel prices and lower CAFE compliance costs contributed to the increase in 

light truck sales in the preliminary AEO2013 projection. 

13. EIA was asked if mass reduction was a significant contributor to increased fuel 

economy for cars and light trucks. EIA stated the projected mass reduction was more 

significant in light trucks, as up to 20 percent mass reductions are included in the 

technology menu but that the mass of cars was affected but to a lesser extent, as mass 

reduction technology is available only up to 10 percent for the largest size class and 
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3.5 percent for the vast majority of passenger cars. Others in the meeting concurred 

with this finding. 

14. EIA was asked about market penetration rates for micro hybrids and CNG vehicles. 

EIA stated cost effectiveness relative to other alternatives was the primary 

explanation for the projected increases for those technologies and fuels. 

Complete Listing of Invitees:

Alex, Aileen DOE/CFO

Alson, Jeff EPA/OTAQ

Birky, Alicia TA Engineering

Charmley, Bill EPA/OTAQ

Chase, Nick EIA/OEA

Chien, David DOT/RITA

Coe, Ed EPA/OTAQ

Cole, Jefferson EPA/OTAQ

Davis, Stacy ORNL

Davies, John DOT/FHWA

Duleep, KG H-D Systems

Ellies, Ben EPA/OTAQ

Garg, Rishi OPC

Gazda, Walter DOT/VOLPE

Gelman, Dave New West Technologies

Green, Kevin DOT/VOLPE

Greene, David ORNL

Hassenboehler, Tom ANGA

Hendrickson, Stephen DOE/CFO

Herzog, Erik EPA/OTAQ

Holtberg, Paul EIA/OEA

Howden, Ken DOE/EERE

Huges-Cromwick, Carrie EIA/OES

Hula, Aaron EPA/OTAQ

Hutchins, Trisha EIA/OEA

Hwang, Roland NRDC

Kaarsberg, Tina DOE/EERE

Kafalenos, Robert DOT/FHWA

Kahan, Ari EPA/OTAQ

Katz, Ken DOT/NHTSA

Kliesch, Jim UCS

Kydes, Nico OnLocation

Langer, Therese ACEEE

Lillis, Kevin EIA/OEA
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Lipman, Zoe NWF

Lott, Melissa DOE/CFO

Maples, John EIA/OEA

Mayes, Fred EIA/OEA

Memmott, Jeffery DOT/RITA

Mesnikoff, Ann Sierra Club

Meyer, John SAIC

Mintz, Marianne ANL

Moore, Jim TAEngineering

Nam, Ed EPA/OTAQ

Neff, Shirley EIA/OA

Nguyen, Tien DOE/EERE

Norris, Sylvia EIA/OES

Prentice-Dunn, Jesse Sierra Club

Prugar, Andrew EPA

Schaufele, Roger DOT/FAA

Santini, Dan ANL

Shpitsberg, Anna DOE/CFO

Smith, Jason ANGA

Owens, Russ New West Technologies

Plotkin, Steve ANL

Stork, Kevin DOE/EERE

Sylvan, Stephan EPA/OAR

Tonachel, Luke NRDC

Turnure, Jim EIA/OEA

VanSchalkwyk, John DOT/VOLPE

Venu, Ghanta EPA/OA

Ward, Jake DOE/EERE

White, Tom DOE/PI

Whitman, Pete DOE/PI

Wolcott, Mark EPA

Wood, Frances OnLocation