WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

August 9, 2017

MEMORANDUM FOR: Ian Mead

Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis

FROM: Jim Turnure 

Director, Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

SUBJECT: Summary of AEO2018 Buildings Working Group held on August 3, 2017

The purpose of this memorandum is to provide an overview of the presentation given at the AEO2018 

Buildings Working Group meeting and a summary of the discussion between participants. The purpose 

of the meeting was to go over the planned updates from AEO2017 to AEO2018 including a review of 

potential AEO2018 side cases, major updates, policy assumptions, and historical updates. The full 

presentation associated with the working group is attached to this document. 

Model updates

Major model updates include major end-use technology menus, residential and commercial building

shells, commercial miscellaneous electric loads (MELs), and distributed generation (DG). Policy 

assumptions include incorporating federal equipment standards, identifying new ENERGY STAR 

specifications, and investigating effects of building code compliance levels on building shell efficiency. 

Policy assumptions on the Clean Power Plan, California’s Assembly Bill 32, and current utility energy 

efficiency spending were discussed. 

Discussion

The main discussion centered on distributed generation, appliance standards and building codes, and 

utility energy efficiency programs.

Distributed Generation

EIA staff explained that both models currently assume consumers receive net metering. Residential solar 

photovoltaic (PV) receives the retail rate for all generation. Other residential DG technologies and all 

commercial generation technologies receive the retail rate for own-use generation and the marginal 

generation price for electricity sold to the grid. Because some states and utilities are changing how they 

reimburse for electricity fed back into the grid for DG, this is a topic area that we are currently looking 

into for AEO2018.

Participants wanted to know more about the econometric model for residential PV adoption. For the 

residential solar PV ZIP code-level model, the econometric penetration model looks at ZIP code-level 

retail electricity rates, demographic characteristics, solar insolation, and a contagion effect. EIA does not 

currently model storage as part of DG. Participants discussed the usefulness of NREL’s REopt and SAM 

models. REopt allows the user to put in a load profile from which the model figures an optimal adoption 

level of PV. SAM allows the user to specify tariffs enabling analysis of the relationship between tariff 

structures and rates.
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Appliance Standards and Building Codes

In response to questions, EIA staff explained that the residential model will look at reducing a portion of 

the energy use of the aggregated pool pump & heater miscellaneous electric load based on the updated

pool pump standard that goes into effect in 2021. The commercial model assumes building shell 

compliance with ASHRAE 90.1-2007 or better by 2016 and compliance with ASHRAE 90.1-2013 or better 

by 2024 (near-term adoption rate may be adjusted for AEO2018 based on updated information).

Utility Energy Efficiency Programs

EIA staff explained that because the effects of utility energy efficiency rebates were implicit in

projections prior to AEO2017, adding them explicitly should not change estimates of near-term energy 

consumption. Consumer choice parameters were adjusted for AEO2017 to produce end-use energy 

consumption with explicit utility EE rebates similar to results obtained with the embedded or implicit 

rebates.

Participants wanted to know more about EIA’s methodology behind these adjustments. EIA staff 

explained that consumer choice parameters act as implicit discount rates, determining the extent to 

which consumers prioritize the upfront capital cost of equipment versus the energy cost of operating it 

(which is, in turn, determined by the equipment’s energy efficiency). For AEO2017, parameters were 

adjusted so that capital costs were prioritized more.

EIA staff also explained that consumers purchased less efficient appliances than with the previous choice 

parameter assumptions, counteracting the effects of the explicit rebates and raising energy 

consumption to previous levels. The extent to which parameters were adjusted varied by end use. EIA 

staff plans to refine assumed rebate levels and consumer choice parameters for AEO2018 based on the 

latest available data.

Participants also asked to know more about the contractor report on which most of the end-use 

technology rebate levels were based. The report sampled two residential and two commercial energy 

efficiency programs within each U.S. Census division. Utilities were selected from approximately the 

90th and 50th percentiles according to the amount of energy savings they reported to the EIA-861 

survey. The sample included both electricity and natural gas programs, as does the EIA-861 survey itself. 

Additional issues

Participants asked about the scenario assumed for future weather. EIA staff responded that projected 

heating and cooling degree days for the AEO use a trend based on the last 30 years of NOAA historical 

data. Heating and cooling degree days are projected at the state level then population-weighted to the 

Census division level. EIA staff also explained that some planned major updates are dependent on

receiving contractor reports in time.
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Attendees

Guests (in person) Affiliation

John Agan DOE 

Paul Donohoo-Vallett DOE 

Robert Fares DOE 

Peter Kobylarek Leidos

Valerie Nubbe DOE 

Jonah Steinbuck DOE 

Erik Tucker Leidos

Frances Wood OnLocation

Guests (WebEx/phone)

Jennifer Amann ACEEE

Erin Boyd DOE 

Beth Conlin EPA

Alan Cooke PNNL

Katie Coughlin LBNL

Paritosh Das NREL

David Feldman NREL

Eric Fox Itron

Pieter Gagnon NREL

Michael Leitman NRECA

Aris Marantan Navigant

Travis Michalke ICF

Elizabeth Titus NEEP

David White Synapse

EIA Attendees (in person)

Chip Berry

Tyler Hodge

Carolyn Hronis

Bill McNary

Manussawee Sukunta

Carol White

Team Members:

Erin Boedecker

Meera Fickling

Kevin Jarzomski

Kimmie Klaiman

David Peterson