U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

AEO2013 Oil and Gas Supply Working Group Meeting

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis

July 31, 2012 | Washington, DC

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Assumptions and Expectations for 

Annual Energy Outlook 2013: 

Oil and Gas Working Group
Overview

2

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

• Introduction/background

• Oil and natural gas supply assumptions

– Offshore

– CO2 EOR

– Lower 48 continuous plays

• Side cases/Issues in focus
Introduction/Background

3

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

• Working group (history, purpose)

• National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

– Annual Energy Outlook

– Requested service reports

– Assumptions/Documentation

– Model code and data input files

• Natural gas, petroleum, and biofuels modules

– Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

– Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module (NGTDM)

– Liquid Fuels Market Module (LFMM)

• Formerly Petroleum Market Module (PMM)

• Discussed in earlier working group
Primary data flows between oil and gas 

modules of NEMS

4

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

NGTDM OGSM LFMM

Lower 48 natural gas 

wellhead prices

Domestic crude oil 

wellhead prices

Domestic crude oil 

production

Natural gas plant liquid

production

Realized lower 48 

natural gas production

Lower 48

Associated-dissolved 

natural gas production

Expected lower 48 

natural gas production
Assumptions

Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

5

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Lower 48 Offshore

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 6
Lower 48 offshore leasing availability

7

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

AEO2012 AEO2013

North Atlantic none None

Mid Atlantic 2018 2018

South Atlantic 2018 2018

Northern & Central California none none

Southern California 2023 2023

Eastern GOM 2022 2022
Lower 48 offshore deepwater projects

8

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

•Currently producing

BOEM 

Field 

Name Nickname

Water 

Depth

Field 

Size 

(MMBoe)

Discovery 

Year

Start Year 

of 

Production

BOEM 

Field 

Name Nickname

Water 

Depth

Field 

Size 

(MMBoe)

Discovery 

Year

Start Year 

of 

Production

AC815 Silvertip 9226 89 2004 2011* KC875 Lucius 7168 182 2009 2014

AC815 Tobago 9627 89 2004 2011* MC725 Tubular Bells 4334 89 2003 2014

MC460 Appaloosa 2805 372 2008 2011* WR678 St. Malo 7036 372 2003 2014

MC800 Gladden 3116 89 2008 2011* WR759 Jack 6963 372 2004 2014

GC448 Condor 3266 89 2008 2011* KC964 Hadrian South 7586 182 2009 2014

MC754 Anduin West 2696 45 2008 2011* DC048 Dalmatian 5876 89 2008 2015

GB515 Ozona 3000 89 2008 2011* DC004 Axe 5822 89 2010 2015

MC876 Callisto 7788 45 2001 2011* GB605 Winter 3400 45 2009 2015

EW998 EW998 1000 2009 2011* GC432 Samurai 3400 89 2009 2015

GC238 Little Burn 2600 2005 2011* GC468 Pony 3497 372 2006 2015

MC503 Who Dat 3100 2007 2011* MC771 Kodiak 4986 182 2008 2015

WR250 Cascade 8143 372 2002 2012* GB427 Cardamom Deep 2720 182 2010 2015

GC683 Caesar 4457 45 2006 2012* MC762 Deimos South 3122 2010 2015

GC726 West Tonga 4674 372 2007 2012* MC792 West Boreas 3112 2004 2015

MC241 MC241 2427 45 1987 2012* GC955 Mission Deep 7300 182 1999 2016

MC292 Raton South 3400 12 2008 2012* KC102 Tiber 4132 691 2009 2016

LL400 Cheyenne East 9200 12 2011 2012* KC292 Kaskida 5860 691 2006 2016

MC199 Mandy 2478 182 2010 2012* MC984 Vito 4038 182 2009 2016

MC562 Isabela 6535 45 2007 2012* WR508 Stones 9556 89 2005 2016

MC563 Santa Cruz 6515 2009 2012* MC948 Gunflint/Freedom 6095 691 2008 2016

MC519 Santiago 6500 2011 2012* GC859 Heidelberg 5000 182 2009 2016

GB293 Pyrenees 2100 89 2009 2012* WR052 Shenandoah 5750 182 2009 2017

WR469 Chinook 8831 372 2003 2012 KC872 Buckskin 6920 182 2009 2018

GB463 Bushwood 2700 89 2009 2012 LL370 Diamond 9975 45 2008 2018

GC299 Clipper 3452 45 2005 2012 WR627 Julia 7087 89 2007 2018

GC490 Wide Berth 3700 89 2009 2012 KC736 Moccasin 6759 2011 2018

MC751 Goose 1624 45 2003 2012 DC353 Vicksburg 7457 372 2007 2019

GB506 Danny II 2800 2012 2012 MC392 Appomattox 7217 691 2009 2019

GC512 Knotty Head 3557 372 2005 2013 WR848 Hal 7657 45 2008 2019

GB782 Entrada 4690 372 2000 2014 DC004 Dalmatian N 5831 89 2010 2020

WR029 Big Foot 5235 182 2005 2014 KC919 Hadrian North 7000 372 2010 2020
9

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

OCS undiscovered technically recoverable resources (mean 

estimates)

Region BOEM 2006 Assessment BOEM 2011 Assessment

Oil (Bbo) Natural Gas (tcf) BOE (Bbo) Oil (Bbo) Natural Gas (tcf) BOE (Bbo)

Alaska 26.61 132.06 50.11 26.61 131.45 50.00

Atlantic 3.82 36.99 10.40 3.30 31.28 8.87

 North 1.91 17.99 5.12 1.35 9.87 3.11

 Mid 1.50 15.13 4.19 1.42 19.36 4.87

 South 0.41 3.86 1.10 0.53 2.04 0.89

Gulf of Mexico 44.92 232.54 86.30 48.40 219.46 87.45

 Western 10.70 66.25 22.49 12.38 69.45 24.74

 Eastern 3.88 21.51 7.71 5.07 16.08 7.93

 Central 30.32 144.77 56.08 30.93 133.90 54.76

Pacific 10.53 18.29 13.79 10.20 16.10 13.07

 WA/OR 0.40 2.28 0.81 0.40 2.28 0.81

 Northern CA 2.08 3.58 2.71 2.08 3.58 2.71

 Central CA 2.31 2.41 2.74 2.40 2.49 2.84

 Southern CA 5.74 10.03 7.52 5.32 7.76 6.70

Total U.S. OCS 85.88 419.88 160.60 88.59 398.37 159.49
CO2 EOR

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 10
Recoverable EOR/ASR resources

11

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

(Vertical & Horizontal) (Vertical & Horizontal)

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

CO2 EOR Steam Flood Polymer Infill Profile

Modification

billion barrels

Technical $50/Bbl $80/Bbl $125/Bbl
Potential and current CO2 EOR projects

12 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Category Field Count

Active (as of Jan. 1, 2012) 120

Planned (including ROZ) 11

Candidates 2,229 

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Planned Oil Fields

Candidate Oil Fields
CO2 availability assumptions

13

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Source Type

Infrastructure

Development

(years)

Market

Acceptance

(years)

Ultimate Market

Acceptance

Maximum CO2

Volumes

(million tons)

Average Carbon 

Capture & 

Transportation 

(within Region) 

Cost

($/ton)

Ammonia Plants 2 10 100% 4.5 31

Natural Gas 

Processing 2 10 100% 10.9 27

Ethanol Plants 4 10 100% 18.4 33

Hydrogen Plants 4 10 100% 0.2 37

Refineries 4 10 100% 16.7 29

Cement Plants 7 10 100% 21.6 70

Fossil Fuel Plants 12 10 100% 1,209.0 100

Coal-to-Liquids Determined by the Petroleum Market Module 77.2 27
Estimated Ultimate Recovery –

continuous plays

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 14
Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) –

continuous plays

15

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

• USGS 2011-2012 updates

– Paradox Basin

• Play-level EURs are based on historical well performance

– Individual well performance analyzed (2008-2012)

– Hyperbolic decline 

where, 0 < b < 2 and 0< Di <1

– Converts to exponential decline when decline rate reaches Q∞
16

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Lower 48 states shale plays
Lower 48 states major tight gas plays

17

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
18

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Basin/Play

AEO2013 AEO2012

Area (mi2)

Average Well 

Spacing 

(wells/mi2) 

% of area 

untested

% of area 

with 

potential

Average EUR 

(bcf/well) TRR (bcf)

Average 

EUR 

(bcf/well) TRR (bcf)

Appalachian

 Marcellus 104,067 5 99% 19% 1.65 148,857 1.56 140,565 

 Utica 16,590 4 100% 21% 1.13 15,712 1.13 15,712 

Arkoma

 Woodford 3,000 8 98% 23% 1.97 10,669 1.97 10,678 

 Fayetteville 5,853 8 93% 23% 1.09 11,088 1.30 13,240 

 Chattanooga 696 8 100% 29% 0.99 1,617 0.99 1,617 

 Caney 2,890 4 100% 29% 0.34 1,135 0.34 1,135 

TX-LA-MS Salt

 Haynesville/Boosier 9,320 8 98% 34% 3.25 80,076 2.67 65,860 

Western Gulf

 Eagle Ford 18,451 6 99% 43% 1.05 49,473 2.36 50,219 

 Pearsall 1,420 6 100% 85% 1.22 8,817 1.22 8,817 

Anadarko

 Woodford 3,350 4 99% 41% 2.30 12,616 2.89 10,981 

Sum of select plays 340,060 318,825 

Total U.S. shale 490,277 481,783 

Unproved technically recoverable shale gas
19 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Region Basin Play

AEO2013 AEO2012

Area (mi2)

Average 

Well 

Spacing 

(wells/mi2)

% of area 

untested

% of area 

with 

potential

Average 

EUR 

(mmb/well)

TRR 

(mmb)

Average 

EUR 

(mmb/well)

TRR 

(mmb)

Gulf Coast West Gulf Austin Chalk 16,078 3 72% 46% 0.043 687 0.127 2,688 

Gulf Coast West Gulf Eagle Ford Shale 12,500 5 97% 25% 0.197 2,980 0.284 2,461 

Midcontinent Anadarko Woodford Shale 3,120 6 100% 88% 0.036 590 0.024 393 

Southwest Permian

Avalon/Bone 

Springs Shale 1,313 4 100% 78% 0.067 274 0.390 1,593 

Southwest Permian Spraberry 1,085 6 99% 72% 0.031 144 0.110 510 

Rocky Mountains Paradox 471 -- --

Rocky Mountains

Rocky Mountain 

basins Niobrara 20,385 8 97% 80% 0.062 7,902 0.051 6,500 

Rocky Mountains Williston Bakken Shale 39,000 2 96% 54% 0.221 8,955 0.550 5,372 

West Coast

San Joaquin/Los 

Angeles

Monterey/Santos 

Shale 2,520 12 98% 93% 0.497 13,709 0.497 13,709 

 35,710 33,226 

Unproved technically recoverable tight oil
Anadarko Basin – natural gas

20

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

bcf/well

Number 

of wells

Average 

EUR

minimum

maximum

25th percentile

mean

median

75th percentile
Anadarko Basin – crude oil/condensate

21 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

mbbls/well
Appalachian Basin – natural gas

22

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

bcf/well
Appalachian Basin – crude oil/condensate

23

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

mbbls/well
Arkoma Basin – natural gas

24

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

bcf/well
Arkoma Basin – crude oil/condensate

25

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

mbbls/well
Denver Basin – natural gas

26 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

bcf/well
Denver Basin – crude oil/condensate

27 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

mbbls/well
Fort Worth Basin – natural gas

28

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

bcf/well
Fort Worth Basin – crude oil/condensate

29

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

mbbls/well
Permian Basin – natural gas

30

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

bcf/well
Permian Basin – crude oil/condensate

31 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

mbbls/well
San Juan Basin – natural gas

32

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

bcf/well
San Juan Basin – crude oil/condensate

33

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

mbbls/well
Southwestern Wyoming Basin – natural gas

34 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

bcf/well
Southwestern Wyoming Basin – crude oil/condensate

35

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

mbbls/well
TX-LA-MS Salt Basin – natural gas

36

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

bcf/well
TX-LA-MS Salt Basin – crude oil/condensate

37

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

mbbls/well
Uinta-Piceance Basin – natural gas

38

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

bcf/well
Uinta-Piceance Basin – crude oil/condensate

39 Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

mbbls/well
Western Gulf Coast Basin – natural gas

40

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

bcf/well
Western Gulf Coast Basin – crude oil/condensate

41

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

mbbls/well
Williston Basin – natural gas

42

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

bcf/well
Williston Basin – crude oil/condensate

43

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

mbbls/well
Side cases

44

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
Side cases and Issues and Focus articles

45

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

• AEO2012 Side Cases

– High/low world oil price

– High/low macroeconomic growth

– High/low shale gas and tight oil EUR

– High shale gas and tight oil TRR

• AEO2012 Issues and Focus

– Potential impact of minimum pipeline throughput constraints on Alaska North 

slope oil production

– U.S. crude oil and natural gas resource uncertainty

– Evolving Marcellus shale gas resource estimates

• AEO2013 Issues and Focus?
Contacts

46

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

Lower 48 oil and gas supply | dana.vanwagener@eia.gov

Alaska oil supply | philip.budzik@eia.gov

General oil and gas questions | john.staub@eia.gov

EIA Information Center

(202) 586-8800 | email: InfoCtr@eia.gov
For more information

47

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

EIA Information Center

(202) 586-8800 | email: InfoCtr@eia.gov
Anadarko Basin 

Cleveland/ 

Tonkawa/ 

Marmaton

Anadarko Basin 

Mississippi Lime

Williston Basin 

Bakken/

Three Forks

Midland Basin 

Wolfcamp

Appalachian Basin 

Utica

48

USA Tight Oil Basins and Plays in forthcoming study

Anadarko Basin

Cana Woodford

Maverick/S.Texas

Eagle Ford

Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes 

Washington, DC, July 31, 2012 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change