U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Key AEO2017 Renewable Electricity Key Model 

Updates

For

EIA Renewables Working Group

September 1, 2016

By

Chris Namovicz

Team Leader for Renewable Electricity Analysis
Summary of key changes from AEO2016

• AEO 2017 will be a limited release year

– Very few side cases and limited analytic write-up (similar to AEO 2015)

• We plan on extending the projections to 2050

• Pending any relevant court rulings, the Clean Power Plan will continue to be 

in the Reference case.

• This presentation will focus on the changes to Renewable and Electric Power 

sector portions of the model

AEO2017 Renewables Working Group

September 1, 2016 2

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Renewables has an ambitious schedule, given “short-year”, 

extension to 2050, and limited development time

• PV load shapes 

• Renewables Integration

– Energy Storage

– Address Solar curtailments

• Solar resource data update

• Regional solar costs

• State RPS policy updates

AEO2017 Renewables Working Group 

September 1, 2016 3

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
PV Load Shape Development is in Progress

• Contractor report will allow for more accurate modeling of impacts of 

distributed PV on demand for electricity by end-use service category

• We have decided to continue to pursue model changes originally attempted 

for AEO 2016

– On the EMM side, we are treating end-use PV generation as if it were from utility generators

– This allows PV impacts on grid planning and operating constraints to be fully seen by EMM

– With more time for development, the reporting issues that prevented use of this algorithm are 

being addressed

AEO2017 Renewables Working Group 

September 1, 2016 4

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Energy Storage may be delayed by contract issues

• EIA has a contract task to develop an algorithm to endogenously account for 

the value of energy storage

– The fundamental temporal resolution of the EMM is too course to see significant arbitrage 

value for energy storage

– The proposed approach estimates model parameters outside of the EMM LP at high 

temporal resolution, then feeds results into the LP

• Coding was put on hold pending resolution of contract option funding

• Time to complete task is limited

AEO2017 Renewables Working Group 

September 1, 2016 5

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Solar Curtailments Work Anticipated

• EPSA has developed a PV curtailments algorithm for NEMS similar to the 

Energy Storage approach (that is, compute higher-temporal resolution 

parameters outside of the LP, then feed to the LP) 

– Some additional work is needed to update this into the AEO 2016 code set

– This is queued to our contractor behind the Energy Storage task

• The same approach could be used to improve the current EIA algorithm for 

handling wind curtailments

– The current approach was developed 10 years ago and may have been unintentionally 

impacted by interim model changes

– However, implementation into AEO 2016 will not be feasible given limited time available other 

development activities

AEO2017 Renewables Working Group 

September 1, 2016 6

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
• Solar resource assumptions need to be 

made consistent with other aspects of 

NEMS inputs, e.g. cost assumptions

• EIA is updating the solar resource data 

to represent a photovoltaic system with 

an inverter loading ratio of 1.20

Hourly solar PV output, single day in April, San Francisco, CA

capacity factor

AEO2017 Renewables Working Group 

September 1, 2016

EIA is completing an update of solar resources to ensure 

consistency between cost and performance assumptions

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AEO2017 AEO2016 AEO2011

Capacity (MWDC) 180 183 165

Capacity (MWAC) 150 150 150

Inverter Loading 

Ratio (ILR) 1.20 1.22 1.10

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

4 8 12 16 20 24

Proposed AEO2017 AEO2016 NREL Data
EIA is exploring applying as-observed regional factors to 

PV projects

• PV cost updates from AEO2016 will also be re-examined, but with limited additional new 

information

• LBNL numbers are as shown in the recently-released 2015 Utility-Scale Solar report

AEO2017 Renewables Working Group 

September 1, 2016 8

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE $1,500

$2,500

$3,500

$4,500

ERCOT

FRCC

MROE

MROW

NEWE

NYCW

NYLI

NYUP

RFCE

RFCM

RFCW

SRDA

SRGW

SRSE

SRCESRVC

SPNO

SPSO

AZNM

CAMX

NWPP

RMPA

US Average CapEx

Regional

AEO2015-Wtd

AEO2015-Avg

LBNL-Wtd

LBNL-Avg

AEO2016-Avg

AEO2016-Wtd

AEO2016-P
State RPS policies will be finalized toward the end of the 

AEO cycle – as of now, four targets will be updated

AEO2017 Renewables Working Group 

September 1, 2016 9

WA: 15% x 2020 

OR: 50%x 2040 

(large utilities)

CA: 50% 

x 2030

MT: 15% x 2015

NV: 25% x

2025

AZ: 15% x 

2025

NM: 20%x 2020 

(IOUs)

HI: 100% x 2045

CO: 30% x 2020 

(IOUs)

MN:26.5% 

x 2025 (IOUs)

31.5% x 2020 (Xcel)

MI: 10% x 

WI: 2015 10% 

2015

MO:15% x 

2021

IA: 105 MW

IL: 25% 

x 2026

OH: 12.5% 

x 2026

NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs)

ME: 40% x 2017

29 States + DC have a 

Renewable Portfolio Standard 

Updated in AEO2016

To Update in AEO2017

TX: 5,880 MW x 2015

NH: 24.8%x 2025

VT: 75% x 2032

MA: 15% x 2020(new resources) 

6.03% x 2016 (existing resources)

RI: 38.5% x 2035

CT: 27% x 2020

NY:50% x 2030

PA: 18% x 2021

NJ: 20.38% RE x 2020 

+ 4.1% solar by 2027

DE: 25% x 2026

MD: 20% x 2022

DC: 50% x 2032

No Change in RPS 

DC

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Other key electric power sector efforts for AEO2017

• Introducing detailed breakout of generator cost and performance by 

operating level

• Modifying plant configuration to more closely correspond to MATS compliant 

controls

• Additional analysis of near-term and long-term retirements for nuclear 

capacity

10

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2017 Renewables Working Group 

September 1, 2016
“Higher resolution” in modeling generation

• Status: currently completing contract analysis and testing/programming in 

NEMS 

• Key elements: 

– Realistic heat rates based on operating modes calculated using EPA CEMS data

– Input heat rate adjustments into NEMS for use at different operating levels

• Preliminary results of higher resolution for generation

– Seeing greater variability in coal generation in response to CPP constraints

– Additional 3-4 GW of coal retirements

11

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2017 Renewables Working Group 

September 1, 2016
Impact of installing MATS-compliant controls

• Status: finishing internal analysis of recently released 2015 Form EIA-860 

control equipment updates

• Key elements: 

– Comprehensive re-assessment of MATS compliance status for all operating coal units

– Redefined compliance configurations to include characteristics of key MATS technology (DSI)

• Expected benefits of clearly specifying MATS-compliant controls

– Lower levels of endogenous coal retirements of units with unspecified control technology

AEO2017 Renewables Working Group 

September 1, 2016 12

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AEO2017 assumptions will consider additional accelerated 

retirements

13

• AEO 2017 still includes 1,288 MW of announced (planned) retirements at 2 plants, 

both of which were also included in AEO2016.

– 2019 Pilgrim (MA) (678 MW)

– 2019 Oyster Creek (NJ) (610 MW)

• Although costs have decreased from 2013 through 2015, financial uncertainty related 

to revenues is still an issue.

• To address financial uncertainty, EIA is considering 3 GW of generic retirements in 

addition to those above.

AEO2017 Electricity Working Group 

September 1, 2016 
Extension of projection horizon to 2050 will require 

closer examination of license extension issues

• Two utilities have announced plans to pursue subsequent license renewal to 80 years:

– Dominion for Surry Units 1 and 2 (1.7 GW)

– Exelon for Peach Bottom Units 2 and 3 (2.5 GW).

• However, retirements prior to 80 years are likely for a variety of reasons that have capital and 

O&M cost implications.

• Sensitivity studies for retirements of capacity prior to SLR are underway.

• AEO2018 will address long-term operations (SLR) in more detail. Project is underway.

AEO2017 Electricity Working Group 

September 1, 2016 14

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Contact Information

Chris Namovicz

Team Leader for Renewable Electricity Analysis

Chris.Namovicz@eia.gov

202-586-7120

The Renewable Electricity Analysis Team:

Fred Mayes, 586-1508

Michelle Bowman, 586-0526

Danielle Lowenthal-Savy, 586-8586

Cara Marcy, 586-9224

Manussawee Sukunta, 586-0279

AEO2017 Renewables Working Group 

September 1, 2016 15