U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Buildings Working Group Meeting

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

May 25, 2021 | Washington, DC

By

Buildings Energy Consumption and Efficiency Modeling Group

AEO2021 debrief and AEO2022 updates
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Overview

• AEO2021 debrief

– COVID-19

– Major model updates

• AEO2022

– Major model updates

– Policy assumptions

– Historical updates

– Upcoming projects

• Upcoming projects

• Discussion

AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021 2
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2021 Debrief

3 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2021 and COVID-19

• The Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) reflects macroeconomic 

projections from IHS Markit (including housing starts and commercial 

floorspace builds).

• The forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) reflect the nearterm impacts of the pandemic and subsequent mitigation efforts.

• We released an Annual Energy Outlook Trends and Expectations report that 

discusses some of the early impacts of responses to COVID-19 on different 

energy sectors.

AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021 4
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

U.S. GDP assumptions

AEO2021 economic growth cases

trillion 2012 dollars

AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021

The pace of economic growth directly affects energy consumption’s 

return to 2019 levels

5

U.S. delivered energy across end-use sectors

AEO2021 economic growth cases

quadrillion British thermal units

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2020

history projections

High Economic Growth

Reference 

Low Economic Growth

2024

2050 2029

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2020

history projections

High Economic Growth

Reference 

Low Economic Growth
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2021 major model updates

• Revise reporting of residential and commercial end-use electricity 

consumption and distributed generation

• Update representation of building codes as well as sensors and controls in 

the Commercial Demand Module

• Revise residential housing decay rate using latest housing start and stock 

data from the Macroeconomic Activity Module and IHS Markit

• Develop new solar photovoltaic cost estimates based on the National 

Renewable Energy Laboratory’s latest Annual Technology Baseline

• Update representation of LED lighting and eliminate the backstop lighting 

standard set by the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2020

AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021 6
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Residential sector delivered energy consumption

AEO2021 Reference case

quadrillion British thermal units

2020

history projections

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Commercial sector delivered energy consumption

AEO2021 Reference case

quadrillion British thermal units

2020

history projections

Residential and commercial energy consumption grows 

slowly in the AEO2021 Reference case

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May 25, 2021 7

electricity

natural gas

petroleum 

and other 

liquids

other
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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AEO2022 (and beyond)

8 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2022 major model updates

• Update miscellaneous electric loads (MELs)

– Based on Analysis and Representation of Miscellaneous Electric Loads in NEMS report

– Add new end uses and improve modeling to make it easier to add end uses in the future

• Endogenize calculation of residential housing decay rates

– More dynamic across AEO side cases (for example, High Economic Growth and Low 

Economic Growth cases) that vary levels of macroeconomic activity in AEO projections

• Develop new solar photovoltaic cost estimates based on Lawrence Berkeley 

National Laboratory’s latest Distributed Solar Data Update (formerly Tracking 

the Sun).

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May 25, 2021 9
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

MELs data are derived from bottom-up analysis of usage in different modes and number of devices

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May 25, 2021

Watts
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

• Audio equipment

• Ceiling fans

• Coffee makers

• Dehumidifiers

• Desktop pcs

• Laptop pcs

• Monitors

• Microwaves

• Miscellaneous refrigeration products

• Network equipment

• Non-pc rechargeable electronics

• Pool heaters

• Pool pumps

Residential MELs

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• Portable electric spas

• Residential security systems

• Set-top boxes

• Over-the-top streaming devices

• Small kitchen appliances*

• Smart speakers*

• Smartphones

• Tablets

• Televisions

• Video game consoles

existing end use

disaggregated end use

new end use/ not in 2013 report

* not currently modeled
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

• Televisions

• Video displays

• Warehouse robots*

• Wastewater treatment

• Water supply and purification

Commercial MELs

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• Data center servers

• Desktop pcs

• Laptop pcs

• Monitors

• Distribution transformers

• Elevators

• IT equipment

• Kitchen ventilation

• Laboratory fume hoods

• Laboratory refrigerators/freezers

• Medical imaging equipment

• Point-of-sale (POS) machines*

• Security systems

existing end use

disaggregated end use

new end use/ not in 2013 report

* not currently modeled
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2011 2015 2018 2020 2030 2040 2050

2013 MELs report

2021 MELs report

annual energy consumption

terawatthours per year

The new report projects television energy consumption to be lower based on 

higher adoption of efficient LCD sets despite increasing average screen size

13 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2022 policy assumptions

• Incorporate new federal rulemakings if and when finalized

• Identify any new ENERGY STAR specifications for major end-use equipment 

and MELs

• Incorporate extended federal energy efficiency rebates and renewables tax 

credits (such as those from the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021)

14 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

AEO2022 historical updates

• Update sectoral energy consumption by fuel

– State Energy Data System (SEDS) / Monthly Energy Review (MER)

– Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

• Continue to refine historical (and projected) impacts of utility energy 

efficiency incentives

• Include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) 

updated weather data and forecast

– NOAA is releasing revised 30-year (1991–2020) average weather normals and incorporating 

data from the 2020 Census

• Calibrate new residential heating equipment shares and average household 

square footage based on U.S. Census Bureau data

AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021 15
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Upcoming projects

• Update characterization of residential and commercial lighting, commercial 

refrigeration, and commercial ventilation technologies

• Investigate modeling of storage technologies for buildings

• Identify ways in which we can use the residential and commercial models to 

analyze various types of buildings-related electrification

16 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Interactive graphs and data

• Online data table browser

• Application Programming Interface (API)

AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021 17
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Buildings-related reports

• Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency 

• Analysis and Representation of Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) in NEMS

• Distributed Generation System Characteristics and Costs in the Buildings Sector 

• Modeling Distributed Generation in the Buildings Sectors

• Price Elasticities for Energy Use in Buildings of the United States

• Trends in Commercial Whole-Building Sensors and Controls

• Development of Commercial Building Shell Heating and Cooling Load Factors

• Residential and Commercial sector Energy Code Adoption and Compliance Rates

AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021 18
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

For more buildings information

Kevin Jarzomski | phone: 202-586-3208

| email: kevin.jarzomski@eia.gov

Courtney Sourmehi | phone: 202-586-0022

| email: courtney.sourmehi@eia.gov

Erin Boedecker | phone: 202-586-4791

Team Lead | email: erin.boedecker@eia.gov

EIA is hiring! www.eia.gov/about/careers/

19 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration homepage | www.eia.gov

Buildings Working Group materials | www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/workinggroup/buildings

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

State Energy Data System | www.eia.gov/state/seds

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Residential Energy Consumption Survey | www.eia.gov/consumption/residential

Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey | www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial

International Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/international

AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

May 25, 2021 20
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE 

BECAUSE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Questions or comments

21 AEO2022 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

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