October 1, 2013

MEMORANDUM FOR: JOHN CONTI

ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR FOR ENERGY 

ANALYSIS

 PAUL HOLTBERG 

TEAM LEADER

ANALYSIS INTEGRATION TEAM

JIM TURNURE

DIRECTOR

OFFICE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND EFFICIENCY 

ANALYSIS

FROM: TRANSPORTATION CONSUMPTION & EFFICIENCY

ANALYSIS TEAM

SUBJECT: Second AEO2014 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Summary (presented on 09-25-2013)

Attendees: Nicholas Chase (EIA/OECEA)

Carrie Hughes-Cromwick (EIA/OES)

Paul Holtberg (EIA/OEA)

Trisha Hutchins (EIA/OECEA)

Jim Kliesch (Honda)

John Maples (EIA/OECEA)

Steve Plotkin (ANL)

Attending by Phone: Kevin Bollon (EPA)

Dallas Burkholder (EPA)

John Davies (DOT)

Kaoru Horie (Honda)

Ken Howden (DOE/EERE)

Ryan Keefe (DOT/VOLPE)

Siddiq Khan (ACEEE)

Nico Kydes (OnLocation)

Therese Langer (ACEEE)

John Meyer (SAIC)

Jim Moore (TAE)

Ed Nam (EPA)

Jesse Prentice-Dunn (Sierra Club)

Andrew Prugar (EPA)

Matt Spears (EPA)

Luke Tonachel (NRDC)
Anant Vyas (ANL)

Frances Wood (OnLocation)

Presenters: Nick Chase

Trisha Hutchins

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

The working group presentation provided a discussion of the preliminary projections for AEO 

2014. An overview of the projections discussed is included in the presentation materials 

provided as a separate attachment.

Specific discussion/questions:

1. What is the growth rate of GDP throughout the projection?

a. We can obtain this and supply it.

2. Do you have the percentage change for licensing rates with regard to the population of 

the age categories? It would be interesting to see these changes in licensing rate once the 

population within an age group has been flushed out.

a. We can work on this and inform those who are interested once we have some 

numbers.

3. Is the battery cost a cost for the full battery pac, cells and containment?

a. Yes, the battery costs are the costs of the pac. Also, the costs in the presentation 

are retail price equivalents (RPE), or prices to the consumers.

4. What is your definition of micro hybridization technology? Also, the 2020 micro 

numbers seem lower than expected since Europe is at 50% micro right now.

a. This includes start/stop technology and some regenerative braking.

b. It was commented that fuel is more costly in Europe.

c. It was also commented by an attendee that EPA has similar numbers for 

microhybrids in 2020, at 8%.

d. EIA might want to think about comparing the cost of the other advanced 

technologies against the cost of adding micro hybrid technology, as comparison to 

show.

e. Another attendee mentioned that European consumers are more tolerant of noise, 

vibration, harshness (NVH) issues than American consumers, which might be in 

response to the higher fuel costs in Europe.

f. Another attendee then mentioned that it is more difficult to add micro technology 

to smaller engines because the NVH issues are magnified.

5. Diesel share in LDV is going down?

a. EIA still needs to update the most recent history for diesel vehicle sales. The 

2012 numbers have not yet been updated.
6. Does this AEO take into account the new California ZEV rules?

a. The AEO2014 includes the current California ZEV rules. If and when the 

proposed California ZEV rule modifications are implemented, EIA will 

incorporate them into the AEO.