U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2015: 

Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and 

Renewables Preliminary Results

For

Joint Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables AEO2015 Working Group

September 15, 2014 | Washington, DC

By

EIA, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear & Renewables Analysis

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
The AEO2015 will be abridged compared to 

AEO2014

• The U.S. Energy Information Administration is revising the schedule for production of the 

International Energy Outlook (IEO) and Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The IEO and AEO 

will alternate annually between full and short versions.

• The AEO2015 will be the first short version of the Annual Energy Outlook.

• The shorter version will include an abbreviated discussion and results from select cases.

2014 2015

International 

Energy Outlook

Short Edition to be 

released summer

2014

Full Edition will be released in spring 2015

Annual Energy 

Outlook

Full Edition released 

in spring 2014

Short Edition will be released by early 2015

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014 2

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Assumptions

3 Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Assumptions - Environmental Rules

4

• Only current laws and regulations are included in EIA’s reference 

case

• Clean Air Interstate Rule is still assumed (as in AEO2014)

– Not modeled: Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) – D.C. 

Circuit Court still has not ruled on EPA’s motion to lift stay on 

CSAPR

• Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS)

– Assumed compliance by 2016, consistent with AEO2014

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Assumptions - Environmental Rules (cont.)

5

• Updates to NEMS modeling of California SB1368 to remove firm 

contractual arrangements for coal plants upon expiration

– Reduce firm imports to represent expiration of contracts with 

the Four Corners, Navajo, Reid Gardner, San Juan, and 

Boardman plants

– Adjust carbon emission rate for firm imports with expiration of 

contracts

– Retire Intermountain plant in 2025

• California cap-and-trade program as specified in AB32 is modeled 

in all affected sectors, consistent with AEO2014

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Assumptions - Planned Coal Retirements By Year 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

gigawatts

AEO 2014: 33 GW 

AEO 2015: 35 GW 

Total Reported Coal Capacity Retirements (2013-2025) 

6 Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Nuclear Power Assumptions

• New Plants – 5.5 GW

– Watts Bar (2015) 

– Summer 2 & 3 (2019 & 2020) – pushed online date back 2 years 

– Vogtle 3 & 4 (2016 & 2017)

• Uprates 

– Only uprates reported to EIA will be incorporated in the Reference case; no 

change in assumptions from AEO2014

• Retirements

– Announced nuclear retirements – 1.2 GW total from 2014 

• same assumptions as AEO2014 (Vermont Yankee, Oyster Creek)

– Generic/unplanned retirements – 0 GW in current runs but still evaluating 

potential for retirements due to operational uncertainty (5.7 GW in AEO2014)

7

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
EIA’s solar PV cost assumptions continue to be consistent with 

LBNL analyses of utility-scale installed system prices

8

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

2013$/kWAC

Sources: EIA AEO2014 and AEO2015, R.W. Beck/SAIC "Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Electricity Generation Plants“ 

(Nov. 2010 and April 2013); LBNL “Utility-Scale Solar 2012 and 2013 (forthcoming)”; SEIA/GTM “Solar Market Insight 

Q1-2014”; correspondence with Justin Baca (SEIA).

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Previous Beck /SAIC Estimates

AEO2014

AEO2015

LBNL

SEIA/GTM

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
EIA reduced initial wind capital cost assumptions by 10% to 

reflect recent cost trends reported in LBNL’s 2013 Wind 

Technologies Report (for plants 50-150 MW)

9 Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

2013$/kW

Sources: EIA AEO2014 and AEO2015, R.W. Beck/SAIC "Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Electricity Generation 

Plants“ (Nov. 2010 and April 2013); LBNL “Wind Technologies Report 2013” (using sample of plants 50-150 MW)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Previous EIA/Beck/SAIC Estimates

AEO2014

AEO2015

LBNL

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Results

10 Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Major summary results changes in electricity, coal, nuclear, and 

renewables

• Relative to AEO2014, power sector natural gas-fired 

generation is lower in later years of the projection, due to 

several factors:

– Higher levels of renewable electricity generation

– Lower electricity sales 

– Higher levels of end-use natural gas-fired generation

– Less natural gas-fired capacity additions in the power sector

– Removal of the fixed 5.7 GW unannounced nuclear retirements 

assumption

• Coal retirements are similar to AEO2014

11 Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Major summary results changes in electricity, coal, nuclear, and 

renewables (cont’d)

• More renewable capacity additions through 2016 and 2030-

2040. Renewable capacity is about 25% higher (50 GW) by 

2040 in the AEO2015 than AEO2014, primarily due to solar 

PV and wind. 

– Near-term growth reflects updated planned builds

– Longer-term growth primarily from reduced costs

12 Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Total Electricity Sales

13

billion kilowatthours

Source: AEO2015 NEMS run ref2015d091014a, AEO2014 Ref2014

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

History Projections

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2014

AEO2015

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Power Sector Fuel Prices

14

2013$/MMBtu

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

Source: AEO2015 NEMS run ref2015d091014a, AEO2014 Ref2014

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coal AEO2015 Natural Gas AEO2015

Coal AEO2014 Natural Gas AEO2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2014

AEO2015

Electricity Price Projections 

15

cents /kWh (2013$)

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

Source: AEO2015 NEMS run ref2015d091014a, AEO2014 Ref2014

Average (all sectors) electricity prices in 

2040 are approximately 5.1% higher in 

the AEO2015 compared to the AEO2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Natural gas and coal-fired generation, AEO2014 vs. preliminary AEO2015

16

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and 

Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Natural Gas

AEO2015

Coal

AEO2015

Source: AEO2015 NEMS run ref2015d091014a, AEO2014 Ref2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Natural Gas

AEO2014

Coal

AEO2014

Billion kilowatthours Billion kilowatthours
17

Average capacity utilization of natural gas combined cycle and 

coal generating capacity, 2008-2040

percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Natural Gas AEO2015

AEO2014

AEO2015

AEO2014

Coal

2013

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 (NEMS run ref2015.d091014a); and AEO2014.

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Nuclear Generation

18

billion kilowatthours

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

Source: AEO2015 NEMS run ref2015d091014a, AEO2014 Ref2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2014

AEO2015

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2014

AEO2015

Renewable Generation

19

billion kilowatthours

History Projections

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

Source: AEO2015 NEMS run ref2015d091014a, AEO2014 Ref2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Renewable Generation

20

billion kilowatthours

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

Source: AEO2015 NEMS run ref2015d091014a, AEO2014 Ref2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AEO2015 projected annual generating capacity additions are 

moderate relative to historical levels

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Other renewables

Solar

Wind

Natural gas and oil

Nuclear

Hydropower and other

Coal

Additions to electricity generating capacity, 1985-2040

gigawatts

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015

History 2013 Projections

21

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Plant Retirements through 2040

22

gigawatts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

AEO2014 AEO2015

Nuclear

Combustion Turbine

Natural Gas/Oil Steam

Coal

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

Source: AEO2015 NEMS run ref2015d091014a, AEO2014 Ref2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Capacity Additions 2014 through 2040 

23 Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

gigawatts

Source: AEO 2015 NEMS run ref2015d091014a, AEO2014 Ref2014

Note: Other Renewable Energy (RE) includes Hydroelectric, Geothermal, MSW, Wood and Other Biomass

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Wind Solar Other RE

AEO2014

AEO2015

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Power Sector CO2 Emissions

24

million metric tons

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

Source: AEO2015 NEMS run ref2015d091014a, AEO2014 Ref2014

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2014

AEO2015

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Coal

25 Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Key results for the AEO2015 Reference case

26

• Coal continues to be the leading fuel for U.S. electricity 

generation through 2040 though it declines from 39% in 2013 

to 33% in 2040. This differs from the AEO2014 where natural 

gas beat out coal by 2035.

• As in AEO2014, coal producers in the Interior region gain 

share while Appalachia loses share of total U.S. coal 

production. From 2012 to 2040, the Appalachian region's 

share of total coal production falls from about 28% to 22%.

• Nearly all of the 43 GW of coal-fired capacity retirements (30

GW planned) occur by 2016 largely because of the 

combination of MATS, relatively low natural gas prices, and 

relatively low electricity demand.

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Key results for the AEO2015 Reference case

27

• Coal production remains near 2013 levels through 2017 as 

the average utilization rate for existing coal plants increases 

offsetting generation losses from retirements; between 2017 

and 2023, coal production rises as natural gas prices rise and 

coal exports increase

• 1.4 GW of additions (0.7 GW planned)

• Delivered coal prices increase gradually through 2040 at an 

average rate of 1.0% per year (on a per ton basis) due to 

declining coal mine productivity and increasing transportation 

costs

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Coal production by region, 1970-2040

28

million short tons

Appalachia

Interior

Western

AEO2014 

Total U.S.

AEO2015 

Total U.S.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2013 Projections

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 (NEMS run ref2015.d091014a); and AEO2014

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Appalachian coal production, 1970-2040

29

million short tons

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Northern Appalachia

Central Appalachia

Southern Appalachia

AEO2015

AEO2014

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 (NEMS run ref2015.d091014a); and AEO2014

Except for Appalachian total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

History 2013 Projections

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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Interior coal production, 1970-2040

30

million short tons

AEO2014

AEO2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Eastern Interior

Gulf Lignite

Western Interior

History 2013 Projections

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 (NEMS run ref2015.d091014a); and AEO2014.

Except for Interior total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Western coal production, 1970-2040

31

million short tons

AEO2014

AEO2015

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Wyoming PRB

Other West

History 2013 Projections

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 (NEMS run ref2015.d091014a); and AEO2014.

Except for Western total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Average minemouth coal prices by region, 1980-2040

32

2013 dollars per short ton

Appalachia

Interior

West

U.S. Average

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

2013

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 (NEMS run ref2015.d091014a)

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Quarterly Coal Report; 

Projections: Preliminary AEO2015 (NEMS run ref2015.d091014a).

U.S. Coal Exports, 1995-2040

33

million short tons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coking

Steam

History Projections

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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Coal exports by major supply region, 2010-2040

34

million short tons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Western

Appalachia

AEO2015 

Total

AEO2014 

Total

Source: 2010-2012: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Distribution Report;

2013-2040: Preliminary AEO2015 (NEMS run ref2015.d091014a); and AEO2014.

Interior

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

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35

For more information

Jim Diefenderfer, Director, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear & Renewables Analysis,

Jim.Diefenderfer@eia.gov, 202-586-2432

Greg Adams, Team Lead, Coal & Uranium Analysis Team,

Greg.Adams@eia.gov, (202) 586-7343

Eric Krall, Team Lead, Electricity Analysis Team,

Eric.Krall@eia.gov, (202) 586-3883

Chris Namovicz, Team Lead, Renewable Electricity Analysis Team,

Christopher.Namovicz@eia.gov, (202) 586-7120

EIA Information Center

InfoCtr@eia.gov

Our average response time is within three 

business days.

(202) 586-8800

24-hour automated information line about EIA 

and frequently asked questions.

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

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For more information

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014 36

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Backup Slides

37 Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Non-Hydro Renewable Generation more than doubles between 

2012 and 2040 in the Reference case

38 Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (Reference case run: d091014a)

Non-hydro renewable generation in the AEO2015 Reference case

billion kilowatthours

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Wind

Solar

Geothermal

Municipal waste

Industrial CHP

Power sector

History Projections

Biomass

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Coal production, AEO2015 vs. AEO2014 in 2040 (and 2013) 

(million short tons)

39

233

5 – 5 (14)

62

30 – 31 (28)

1 – 1 (2) 233 – 228 (136)

146 – 151 (125)

77 – 80 (128)

18 – 17 (18)

65 – 61 (45)

33 - 35 (30)

28 – 26 (40)

404 – 422 (374)*

4 – 5 (2)**

73 – 60 (42)

U.S. Total: 

1,119 – 1,121 (984)

Source: 2013 (preliminary): Mine Safety and Health Administration, Form 7000-2, “Quarterly Mine and Employment

and Coal Production Report;” 2040: Preliminary AEO2015 (NEMS run ref2015.d091014a); and AEO2014.

* Includes production from all mines in 

Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.

** Includes production from mines in both 

Alaska and Washington.

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

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Average annual growth in coal mining labor productivity for 

selected supply regions (percent)

40

Coal Supply Region 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2013 2011-2012 2012-2013 AEO2015

2012-2040

AEO2014

2012-2040

Northern Appalachia 5.4 5.5 -2.2 -4.9 4.3 -1.1 -1.3

Central Appalachia 7.3 4.4 -5.2 -3.8 3.3 -2.9 -3.4

Eastern Interior 4.8 3.7 -0.2 6.1 7.0 0.3 0.1

Gulf Lignite 2.6 2.4 -2.7 -4.2 -1.8 -1.0 -1.0

Dakota Lignite 6.0 1.0 -3.1 -4.8 0.7 -0.9 -1.0

Western Montana 4.6 2.0 -2.4 -11.7 15.4 -0.5 -1.7

WY, Northern Powder 

River Basin 7.5 3.2 -3.2 -5.7 -2.6 -1.6 -1.7

WY, Southern Powder 

River Basin 7.2 4.9 -2.4 -6.4 4.9 -1.4 -1.7

Rocky Mountain 7.8 5.5 -2.5 3.5 -0.2 -2.2 -2.5

U.S. Average 7.1 6.2 -1.8 -0.2 6.9 -0.9 -1.2

Note: Data for 2013 are preliminary.

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report; and Mine Safety and Health 

Administration, Form 7000-2, “Quarterly Mine and Employment and Coal Production Report;” 

Projections: Preliminary AEO2015 (NEMS run ref2015.d091014a); and AEO2014 Reference case.

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

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41

Coal demand regions

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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42

Net summer coal-fired generating capacity in the electric power 

sector by coal demand region, 2013 and 2040

gigawatts

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

01NE (CT,MA,ME,NH,RI,VT)

02YP (NY,PA,NJ)

03S1 (WV,MD,DC,DE)

04S2 (VA,NC,SC)

05GF (GA,FL)

06OH (OH)

07EN (IN,IL,MI,WI)

08KT (KY,TN)

09AM (AL,MS)

10C1 (MN,ND,SD)

11C2 (IA,NE,MO,KS)

12WS (TX,LA,OK,AR)

13MT (MT,WY,ID)

14CU (CO,UT,NV)

15ZN (AZ,NM)

16PC (AK,HI,WA,OR,CA)

2013

AEO2014

AEO2015

U.S. Total 

2013: 301

AEO2014: 258

AEO2015: 259

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 (NEMS run ref2015.d091014a); and AEO2014.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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43

Cumulative net summer coal-fired capacity retirements by coal 

demand region, 2014-2040

gigawatts

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

01NE (CT,MA,ME,NH,RI,VT)

02YP (NY,PA,NJ)

03S1 (WV,MD,DC,DE)

04S2 (VA,NC,SC)

05GF (GA,FL)

06OH (OH)

07EN (IN,IL,MI,WI)

08KT (KY,TN)

09AM (AL,MS)

10C1 (MN,ND,SD)

11C2 (IA,NE,MO,KS)

12WS (TX,LA,OK,AR)

13MT (MT,WY,ID)

14CU (CO,UT,NV)

15ZN (AZ,NM)

16PC (AK,HI,WA,OR,CA)

AEO2014

AEO2015

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

U.S. Total 

AEO2014: 45

AEO2015: 43

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 (NEMS run ref2015.d091014a); and AEO2014.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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44

Cumulative SO2 scrubber and Dry Sorbent Injection (DSI) 

retrofits, 2014-2040

gigawatts

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2015

AEO2015

AEO2014 

AEO2014 

DSI

SO2 Scrubbers

2016

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis 

September 15, 2014

Source: Preliminary AEO2015 (NEMS run ref2015.d091014a); and AEO2014.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.