U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Buildings Working Group Meeting II

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

October 4, 2018 | Washington, DC

By

Buildings Energy Analysis Team
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Overview

• AEO2019 results overview

– Delivered energy by fuel

• Comparison with AEO2018

– Model drivers

– Residential and commercial electricity and natural gas

– Distributed generation: solar photovoltaic (PV)

– Commercial district space heating

– Commercial technology update

• Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) and technology updates

AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC

October 4, 2018 2
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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AEO2019 Results Overview

3 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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residential sector delivered energy consumption 

quadrillion British thermal units

commercial sector delivered energy consumption 

quadrillion British thermal units

Electricity continues to be the fastest growing energy source for 

buildings use in AEO2019

Source: AEO2019 preliminary

4 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CAGR 2018-2050

0.4%

-0.3%

-1.1%

-0.8%

electricity

natural gas

petroleum and other liquids

other 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CAGR 2018-2050

0.6%

0.5%

0.0%

0.0%
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Comparison with AEO2018

5 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

residential fuel prices

2018 $/MMBtu

commercial fuel prices

2018 $/MMBtu

End-use fuel prices are lower in AEO2019 than AEO2018

6 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Natural gas

Electricity

AEO2019

AEO2018

AEO2019

AEO2018

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Natural Gas

Electricity

AEO2019

AEO2018

AEO2019

AEO2018
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

degree days

Heating and cooling degree days include NOAA historical data and 

short-term forecast, along with 30-year trend through projection period

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

7 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cooling

AEO2018

AEO2019 

Heating

AEO2018

AEO2019 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Commercial floorspace growth decreases slightly from AEO2018 to 

AEO2019; AEO2019 floorspace is approximately 1% lower in 2050

Sources: AEO2019 (preliminary), AEO2018

8 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

commercial floorspace

billion square feet
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

residential purchased electricity consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

residential natural gas consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Lower electricity prices and updated sector and technology 

characteristics drive changes in residential consumption

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

9 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5

5.1

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

commercial purchased electricity consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

commercial natural gas consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Total commercial purchased electricity and natural gas consumption 

change only slightly from AEO2018 to AEO2019

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

10 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

residential PV capacity

MW-DC

commercial PV capacity

MW-DC

Residential PV projections are lower in AEO2019, based on more state data; 

commercial projections increase slightly due to lower projected installed costs

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

11 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

commercial purchased electricity for space heating

quadrillion British thermal units

commercial natural gas for space heating

quadrillion British thermal units

After commercial district services update, more delivered natural gas 

and less electricity are consumed for space and water heating

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

12 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Commercial technology characteristics for AEO2019 were 

updated based on 2018 report

• Technology characteristics were updated for commercial space heating, 

space cooling, water heating, and cooking appliances.

– Estimated air-source heat pump costs now incorporate the effects of 2018 and 2023 

standards. They also now include cost declines over time in line with NREL projections.

– Increased efficiency of “typical efficiency” natural gas water heater and lower cost of “high 

efficiency” natural gas water heater. Both trends cause natural gas water heating 

consumption to rise more slowly over the projection period.

– New data on commercial cooking technologies leads to increased consumption in cooking, 

particularly for electricity.

– Report can be found on the web at https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/

AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC

October 4, 2018 13
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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Residential Energy Consumption Survey 

(RECS) and technology updates

14 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

total households

millions

2015 RECS shows more households in 2015 than had been projected in 

AEO2018 based on prior 2009 RECS and housing starts

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

15 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

delivered space heating energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

delivered space cooling energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Space heating and space cooling

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

16 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

delivered water heating energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

delivered cooking energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Water heating/ cooking

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

17 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

delivered refrigeration energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

delivered freezer energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Refrigeration/ freezing

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

18 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

delivered clothes washer energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

delivered clothes dryer energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Clothes washers represent expanded modeling to include both top- and 

front-loading washer configurations

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

19 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

delivered dishwasher energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Dishwashers

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

20 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

delivered lighting energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Definition of General Service Lighting expanded to cover more 

technology types such as reflector lamps

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

21 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

For more buildings information

Kevin Jarzomski | phone: 202-586-3208

| email: kevin.jarzomski@eia.gov

Behjat Hojjati | phone: 202-586-1068

| email: behjat.hojjati@eia.gov

Meera Fickling | phone: 202-586-0765

| email: meera.fickling@eia.gov

Erin Boedecker | phone: 202-586-4791

Team Lead | email: erin.boedecker@eia.gov

22 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/

State Energy Data System | http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Residential Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/

Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/

23 AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

October 4, 2018