U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Buildings Working Group Meeting

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

May 31, 2018 | Washington, DC

By

Buildings Energy Analysis Team

AEO2018 Debrief and AEO2019 Updates
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Overview

• AEO2018 debrief

• AEO2019

– Major model updates

– Policy assumptions

– Historical updates

• Medium-term projects

• Long-term projects

• Discussion/ polling questions

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AEO2018

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AEO2018 debrief—some reminders

• 2018 EIA Energy Conference

– June 4–5, 2018 at the Washington Hilton in Washington, DC

– Energy efficiency of buildings as a competitive factor breakout session, Monday, June 4 at 4:00 p.m.

– Concurrent EIA breakout sessions on Tuesday afternoon include Future directions for EIA’s consumption 

and efficiency data program and Current market and future outlook for energy storage

– https://www.eia.gov/conference/2018/

• Interactive graphs available as part of our online data table browser

– https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/

• AEO and other select EIA data available as part of our Application Programming Interface 

(API) tools

– https://www.eia.gov/opendata/

• Alternative Policies in Power Generation and Energy Demand Markets Issues in Focus

– https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/section_issues.php#ppg

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Residential sector energy consumption 

quadrillion British thermal units

Commercial sector energy consumption 

quadrillion British thermal units

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AEO2018 debrief (continued)

AEO2018 Reference case

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2017

history projections

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2017

history projections

electricity natural gas petroleum and other liquids other
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Buildings solar photovoltaic capacity

gigawatts DC

AEO2018 debrief (continued)

AEO2018 Reference case

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120

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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2017

history projections

residential

commercial
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AEO2019 (and beyond)

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AEO2019 major model updates

• Investigating impacts of California’s mandate for solar PV on new residential 

buildings

• Updating major end-use technology menus

– residential and commercial space heating and cooling, water heating, residential appliances, 

commercial cooking (draft commercial space heating and cooling updates used for 

AEO2018)

– Updated report data will be posted to the web here: 

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/

• Incorporating 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)

– Consumption and revised characteristic microdata to be posted to the web: 

https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/

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AEO2019 major model updates—2015 RECS

2015 RECS

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AEO2019 major model updates—2015 RECS

2015 RECS

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AEO2019 policy assumptions

• Standards for portable air conditioners, uninterruptible power supplies, and 

commercial boilers were finalized at the end of 2016; however, they have yet 

to be published to the Federal Register.

• Identify any new ENERGY STAR specifications as they affect major end-use 

equipment and miscellaneous electric loads (MELs)

– Also working with other DOE offices and national labs to develop consistent terminology and 

characterization of MELs

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AEO2019 historical updates

• Sectoral energy consumption by fuel

– Monthly Energy Review (MER)

– Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

• NOAA weather data and forecast

• Calibrate new residential heating equipment shares based on U.S. Census 

Bureau’s Survey of Construction

• Continue to refine historical (and projected) impacts of utility energy 

efficiency incentives

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Medium-term projects

• Update distributed generation and combined heat & power (CHP) 

characteristics and costs

• Investigate impacts of low income energy efficiency and weatherization 

projects

• Characterize whole-building sensor and control technologies

• Research energy efficiency and renewable energy policies affecting 

buildings in Germany

• Finish working with Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships (NEEP) to 

improve data collection for and understanding of utility energy efficiency 

programs

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Long-term projects

• Research alternate distributed generation electricity rate policies (i.e., retail 

versus wholesale rate for sales back to the grid)

• Investigate modeling of battery storage technologies for buildings

• Research use of district services in China

• Research energy efficiency and renewable energy policies affecting 

buildings in Indonesia and the Middle East

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Discussion/ polling questions

• How do you use AEO building energy projections?

• What AEO scenarios do you use most frequently?

• How frequently do you refer to the AEO?

• What suggestions do you have for us?

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For more buildings information

Kevin Jarzomski | phone: 202-586-3208

| email: kevin.jarzomski@eia.gov

Meera Fickling | phone: 202-586-0765

| email: meera.fickling@eia.gov

Behjat Hojjati | phone: 202-586-1068

| email: behjat.hojjati@eia.gov

Erin Boedecker | phone: 202-586-4791

Team Lead | email: erin.boedecker@eia.gov

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For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Buildings Working Group materials | www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/workinggroup/buildings/

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

State Energy Data System | http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Residential Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/

Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/

International Energy Portal | http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/

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Bonus Slides

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Buildings-related reports

• Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency: 

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/

• Analysis and Representation of Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) in 

NEMS: https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/demand/miscelectric/

• Distributed Generation System Characteristics and Costs in the Buildings 

Sector: https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/distrigen/

• Modeling Distributed Generation in the Buildings Sectors: 

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/nems/2017/buildings/

• Price Elasticities for Energy Use in Buildings of the United States: 

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/energyuse/

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