U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2020:

For

Joint Session – AEO2020 Working Groups

September 11, 2019

By

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis

Preliminary Results for Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables
Welcome to AEO2020 preliminary results working group

• We will be confirming attendance: please state your name and affiliation at

log-in.

• We are conducting the meeting under Chatham House Rules.

• Slides and notes of the meeting will be made available to the public within a

few weeks

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 2

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Key developments for AEO2020 in electric sector modeling

Across all sectors

- Updated capital costs and performance characteristics for new generating units for all technologies

- Redefined regions to better align with ISO/RTO markets

Electricity/Nuclear

- Region Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)

- New Source Performance Standards (NSPS)

- Affordable Clean Energy Rule

Renewables

- Renewable Portfolio Updates for: the District of Columbia, Ohio, Maine, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, 

and Washington

- State offshore wind mandates

Coal

- Updated base year from 2017 to 2018

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 3

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AEO2020 cases • Reference Case 

• Core side cases

– High/Low Oil Price

– High/Low Economic Growth

– High/Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology

– High/Low Renewables Cost Case ***NEW***

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 4

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AEO2020 Joint Updates:

Capital Cost Updates and Regional 

Redefinition

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 5

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Updated capital costs for new generating units –

fossil/nuclear in dollars per kilowatt ($/kW)

Previous report, completed for AEO2016, is available on EIA.gov. EIA completes cost updates for each AEO for wind and solar. You can find the 

report for AEO2019 on EIA.gov.

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 6

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Technology AEO2020 Capital cost

(2019 $/kW)

AEO2019 Capital cost 

(2019 $/kW)

Approx.

% change 

Combined cycle 2x2x1 (GE 7HA.02) $958 $808 15.7%

Combined cycle 1x1x1, single shaft (H Class) $1,084 $1,016 6.3%

Combined cycle 1x1x1, single shaft, w/ 90% carbon capture $2,481 $2,235 9.9%

Combustion turbines – simple cycle (2 x LM6000) $1,175 $1,144 2.6%

Combustion turbines – simple cycle (1 x GE 7FA) $713 $703 1.4%

Advanced nuclear (brownfield) $6,041 $6,138 -1.6%

Nuclear small modular reactor (SMR) $6,190 NA

Internal combustion engine $1,810 $1,395 22.9%

650 MW net ultra-supercritical coal 30% carbon capture $4,558 $5,259 -15.4%

650 MW net ultra-supercritical coal 90% carbon capture $5,876 $5,815 1.0%

650 MW net ultra-supercritical coal w/o carbon capture – greenfield $3,676 NA
Updated capital costs for new generating units – renewables 

in dollars per kilowatt ($/kW) 

Previous report, completed for AEO2016, is available on EIA.gov. EIA completes cost updates for each AEO for wind and solar. You 

can find the report for AEO2019 on EIA.gov.

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 7

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

* Denotes new technology from previous studies

Technology AEO2020 capital cost

(2019$/kW)

AEO2019 capital cost 

(2019$/kW)

Approx.

% change 

Onshore wind – large plant footprint: Great Plains region $1,265 $1,652 -30.6%

Onshore wind – small plant footprint: Coastal region $1,677 NA

Fixed-bottom offshore wind: monopile foundations $4,375 $6,656 -52.1%

Solar PV w/single axis tracking $1,313 $2,004 -52.6%

Solar PV w/single axis tracking + battery storage 

150 MW AC solar; 50MW / 200 MWh storage $1,755 NA

Concentrated solar power tower $7,221 $4,365 39.5%

Battery storage system 50 MW 200 MWh $1389/kW net

$347/kWh $1,603 -15.4%

Battery storage system 50 MW 100 MWh $845/kW net

$423/kWh NA

Internal combustion engine – landfill gas $1,563 NA

50-MW biomass plant $4,097 $3,967 3.2%

Hydroelectric power plant $5,316 $2,999 43.6%
New Electricity Markets Module (EMM) regional mapping 

(25 regions)

AEO2020 Regional Mapping Redefinition

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 8

Summary of Regional Changes

- PJM split into East/West/Dominion/ComEd - CA split into North/South regions

- Expanded MISO split into four pricing zones - WECC split into six regions

- Expanded SPP split into three zones - Unchanged: ISO-NE, FL, TX

- SERC reduced to three regions

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Previous Electricity Market Module (EMM) regional 

mapping (22 regions)
AEO2020 Electricity/Nuclear Updates

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 9

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AEO2020 Legislative/Regulatory Updates

• Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) Rule

• Revised New Source Performance Standard for greenhouse gases from 

electric generating units

• New Jersey rejoins Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) 

– NJ RGGI budget: 30% reduction by 2030 from 2020 18 million tons baseline

• Section 45-Q tax treatment for carbon capture and storage CCS

• State support for financially-stressed nuclear plants

– Ohio: subsidy for Davis-Besse/Perry nuclear units

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 10

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AEO2020 Renewables Updates

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 11

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AEO2020 includes Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) 

updates to seven states and DC

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 12

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

State Old policy New policy 

Washington DC 50% renewables by 2032 100% renewables by 2032

New Mexico 20% renewables by 2020 100% carbon-free by 2045

Washington 15% renewables by 2024 100% carbon-neutral by 2045

Nevada 50% renewables by 2030 100% clean energy by 2050

Maryland 22.5% renewables by 2024 50% renewables by 2030

New York 50% renewables by 2030 70% renewables by 2030 

100% clean power by 2040

Maine 40% renewables by 2030 80% renewables by 2030

100% renewables by 2050

Ohio* 12.5% renewables by 2030 8.5% renewables by 2030

* Denotes RPS reduction 
State level mandates for battery storage and offshore wind

13

battery: Massachusetts

1,000 MWh by 2025 target

battery: New Jersey 

2,000 MW by 2030 target

battery: New York

3,000 MW by 2030 target

battery: California 

1,325 MW by 2020 target

battery: Oregon 5 MWh

by 2020 target

offshore Wind: Maryland 

2,000 MW by 2028

offshore Wind: New York 

9,000 MW by 2028

offshore Wind: New 

Jersey 3,500 MW by 2028

offshore Wind: Massachusetts

1,600 MW by 2027 target

offshore Wind: Maine 

5,000 MW by 2030

offshore Wind: Connecticut 

825,000 MWh/year by 2025

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AEO2020 Coal Updates

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 14

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AEO2020 coal updates

• Completed base year data updates for coal transportation rates, coal 

supply curve inputs, and coal contracts (still ongoing)

• Implemented revised seaborne coal freight rate methodology

• Updated U.S. coal export volume constraints for each coal export category 

and region

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 15

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Preliminary Results

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 16

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Summary of preliminary results

• Although we have are a few model inputs and structures left to finalize, early results suggest a 

substantial shift across generating resources

• Lower PV and wind costs could significantly increase growth rates compared with previous 

AEO’s. Are we adequately capturing supply curve or other market constraints?

• Coal retirements are slow and then coal-fired generation stabilizes in response to rising natural 

gas prices; is this consistent with current trends?

• Pace of nuclear retirements quickens as energy and capacity revenues decline. How sensitive 

will these plants be to economic turbulence?

• Natural gas is squeezed in the middle of growing renewables and coal stabilization. Are we 

really on the cusp of “peak gas”?

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 17

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Lower natural gas price path in AEO2020

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019

Source: ref2019..111619a, ref2020.0906d

18

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Natural Gas: Henry Hub Spot Price

2019$ per million British thermal units (MMBtu)

AEO 2019

AEO 2020

2019

history projections
Electricity sales change 

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019

Source: ref2019..111619a, ref2020.0906d

19

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

3,000

3,250

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

4,500

4,750

5,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Total Electricity Sales

billion kilowathours (BkWh)

AEO 2019

AEO 2020

2019

history projections
Generation mix

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019

Source: ref2019..111619a, ref2020.0906d

20

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Electricity generation from selected fuels

billion kilowatthours

2019

history projections

Reference case

natural gas

renewables

coal

nuclear petroleum

AEO2020 ______

AEO2019 _ _ _ _
Capacity additions/retirements by fuel type 2000-2050

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 21

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Electricity generating capacity additions/retirements AEO2020

gigawatts

2019

history projections

solar

wind

oil & natural gas

nuclear

coal

other

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Electricity generating capacity additions/retirements, AEO2019

gigawatts 2018

history projections

solar

wind

oil & natural gas

nuclear

coal

other

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Review of preliminary results

• Although we have are a few model inputs and structures left to finalize, early results suggest a 

substantial shift across generating resources

• Lower PV and wind costs could significantly increase growth rates compared with previous 

AEO’s. Are we adequately capturing supply curve or other market constraints?

• Coal retirements are slow and then coal-fired generation stabilizes in response to rising natural 

gas prices; is this consistent with current trends?

• Pace of nuclear retirements quickens as energy and capacity revenues decline. How sensitive 

will these plants be to economic turbulence?

• Natural gas is squeezed in the middle of growing renewables and coal stabilization. Are we 

really on the cusp of “peak gas”?

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 22

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Coal Production and Exports

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 23

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Total coal production is down slightly in the short-term, but 

increases slightly in later years

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019

Source: ref2019..111619a, ref2020.0906d *2018 - 2020 data are estimated per the STEO projections 

24

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total coal production (1970-2050)

million short tons

AEO2019 

AEO2020

2019

history projections
Coal production by region, 1970-2050

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019

Source: ref2019..111619a, ref2020.0906d *2018 - 2020 data are estimated per the STEO projections 

25

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Appalachia

Interior

Western

Total U.S.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Regional coal production, 1970-2050

million short tons

20 Total U.S.

19 Total U.S.

AEO2020

AEO2019

2019

history projections
U.S. coal exports are expected to recover only gradually 

through 2050

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 26

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

coking

steam

U.S. coal exports. 1995-2050

million short tons

history projections
Review of preliminary results

• Although we have are a few model inputs and structures left to finalize, early results suggest a 

substantial shift across generating resources

• Lower PV and wind costs could significantly increase growth rates compared with previous 

AEO’s. Are we adequately capturing supply curve or other market constraints?

• Coal retirements are slow and then coal-fired generation stabilizes in response to rising natural 

gas prices; is this consistent with current trends?

• Pace of nuclear retirements quickens as energy and capacity revenues decline. How sensitive 

will these plants be to economic turbulence?

• Natural gas is squeezed in the middle of growing renewables and coal stabilization. Are we 

really on the cusp of “peak gas”?

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 27

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Additional Areas of Consideration

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 28

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Long-term modeling considerations beyond AEO2020

• Include economic retirement options for renewable technologies

• Update to capacity factor assumptions for wind and solar, including capacity 

factor improvement and performance degradation 

• Include a solar plus storage technology option 

• Continue development of a dynamic regional structure to EMM

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 29

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Contact information – Electricity Analysis team

• Thad Huetteman, Team Leader Thaddeus.Huetteman@eia.gov (202) 586-7238

• Lori Aniti Lori.Aniti@eia.gov (202) 586-2867

• Kenny Dubin Kenneth.Dubin@eia.gov (202) 586-0477

• Tyler Hodge Tyler.Hodge@eia.gov (202) 586-0442

• Scott Jell Scott.Jell@eia.gov (202) 586-5196

• Jeff Jones Jeffrey.Jones@eia.gov (202) 586-2038

• Augustine Kwon Augustine.Kwon@eia.gov (202) 586-3645

• Nilay Manzagol Nilay.Manzagol@eia.gov (202) 586-3704

• Laura Martin Laura.Martin@eia.gov (202) 586-1494

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 30

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Contact information – Renewable Electricity Analysis team • Chris Namovicz, Team Leader Chris.Namovicz@eia.gov (202) 586-7120

• Richard Bowers Richard.Bowers@eia.gov (202) 586-8586

• Michelle Bowman Michelle.Bowman@eia.gov (202) 586-0526

• Vikram Linga Vikram.Linga@eia.gov (202) 586-9224

• Fred Mayes Fred.Mayes@eia.gov (202) 586-1508

• Manusawee Sukunta Manussawee.Sukunta@eia.gov (202) 586-0279

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 31

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Contact information – Coal & Uranium Analysis team

• Greg Adams, Team Leader Greg.Adams@eia.gov (202) 586-7343

• Katherine Antonio-Sanjinez Katherine.Antonio-Sanjinez@eia.gov (202) 586-7277

• Kien Chau Kien.Chau@eia.gov (202) 586-4280

• David Fritsch David.Fritsch@eia.gov (202) 287-6538

• Slade Johnson Slade.Johnson@eia.gov (202) 586-3945

• Michael Scott Michael.Scott@eia.gov (202) 586-0253

• Bonnie West Bonnie.West@eia.gov (202) 586-2415

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 32

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group September 11, 2019 33

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Supplemental Slides

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 34

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Updated operation and maintenance (O&M) costs –

fossil/nuclear in dollars per megawatthour ($/MWh)

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 35

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

* Denotes new technology from previous studies

[Richard working on table design for comparison]

Technology AEO2019 fixed O&M 

(2019$/MWh)

AEO2020 fixed O&M 

(2019$/MWh)

% 

change 

AEO2019 variable O&M 

(2019$/MWh)

AEO2020 variable O&M 

(2019$/MWh)

% 

change

Combined cycle 2x2x1 $14.10 $11.53 18.2% $1.87 $3.67 -96.5%

Combined cycle 1x1x1, single shaft $12.20 $10.49 14.1% $2.55 $2.10 17.8%

Combined cycle 1x1x1, single shaft, w/ 

90% carbon capture $27.60 $35.05 -27.0% $5.84 $7.47 -27.9%

Combustion turbines – simple cycle $16.30 $18.35 -12.6% $4.70 $3.67 21.8%

Combustion turbines – simple cycle $7.00 $7.14 -1.9% $4.50 $11.40 -

153.4%

Advanced nuclear (brownfield) $121.64 $105.17 13.5% $2.37 $2.41 -1.8%

Internal combustion engine $35.16 $7.24 79.4% $5.69 $6.14 -7.9%

650 MW net ultra-supercritical coal 30% 

carbon capture $54.29 $73.42 -35.2% $7.08 $7.44 -5.1%

650 MW net ultra-supercritical coal 90% 

carbon capture $59.54 - - $10.97 -
Updated operation and maintenance (O&M) costs –

renewables in dollars per megawatthour ($/MWh)

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 36

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Technology AEO2020 Fixed 

O&M (2019$/MWh)

AEO2019 Fixed O&M 

(2019$/MWh)

% 

Change 

AEO2020 Variable 

O&M (2019$/MWh)

AEO2019 Variable O&M 

(2019$/MWh)

% 

Change

Onshore wind – large plant footprint: Great Plains 

region $25.33 $49.29 -94.6% $0.00 $0.00 

Fixed-bottom offshore wind: monopile foundations $110.00 $81.44 26% $0.00 $0.00 

Solar PV w/single axis tracking $31.27 $22.86 26.9% $0.00 $0.00 

Concentrated solar power tower $85.39 $74.15 13.1% $0.00 $0.00 

Battery storage system $24.80 $36.97 -49.1% $0.00 $7.39 

50-MW biomass plant $125.72 $116.45 7.4% $4.83 $5.80 -20.08%

Hydroelectric power plant $29.86 $41.59 -39.3% $0.00 $0.00 

Geothermal $128.54 $433.04 -236.9% $1.16 $9.64 -731%

Fuel cell $30.78 $46.56 -51.3% $0.59 0
Capacity additions by fuel type 2000-2050

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 37

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Electricity generating capacity additions, AEO2019

gigawatts

solar

wind

oil & natural gas

nuclear

coal

other

2018

history projections

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Electricity generating capacity additions, AEO2020

gigawatts

solar

wind

oil & natural gas

nuclear

coal

other

2019

history projections
Capacity retirements by fuel type 2000-2050

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 38

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Electricity generating capacity retirements, AEO2019

gigawatts

oil & natural 

gas

nuclear

coal

other

2018

history projections

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Electricity generating capacity retirements, AEO2020

gigawatts oil & natural 

gas

nuclear

coal

other

2019

history projections
Capacity additions/retirements by fuel type 2000-2050

AEO2019

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 39

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Electricity generating capacity additions, AEO2019

gigawatts

solar

wind

oil & natural gas

nuclear

coal

other

2018

history projections

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Electricity generating capacity retirements, AEO2019

gigawatts

oil & natural gas

nuclear

coal

other
Capacity additions/retirements by fuel type 2000-2050

AEO2020

AEO2020 ECNRA Working Group 

September 11, 2019 40

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Electricity generating capacity additions, AEO2020

gigawatts

solar

wind

oil & natural gas

nuclear

coal

other

2019

history projections

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Electricity generating capacity retirements, AEO2020

gigawatts

oil & natural gas

nuclear

coal

other