March 2023

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies 3

APPENDIX B
Final

EIA - Technology Forecast Updates –

Residential and Commercial Building 

Technologies – Advanced Case

Presented to:

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Prepared by: 

Guidehouse

1676 International Drive

McLean, VA 22102

And

Leidos

11951 Freedom Drive

Reston, VA 20190

March 3, 2023
Final

DISCLAIMER

This presentation was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither 

the United States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, 

subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or 

responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, 

or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, 

process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its 

endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency, contractor or subcontractor 

thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States 

Government or any agency thereof. 

March 2023
Final Table of Contents

Objective 5

Methodology 6

Advanced Case Assumptions 7

Definitions 8

Market Transformation 9

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (North) 11

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (Rest of Country) 12

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces 15

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers 18

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers 21

Residential Electric Furnaces 24

Residential Electric Resistance Heaters 26

Residential Central Air Conditioners (North) 28

Residential Central Air Conditioners (South) 29

Residential Room Air Conditioners 32

Residential Portable Air Conditioners 35

Residential Swamp Coolers 38

Residential Air-Source Heat Pumps 40

Residential Ductless Mini-Split Air-Source Heat Pumps 44

Residential Ground-Source Heat Pumps 46

Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps 48

Residential Cordwood Stoves 50

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves 53

Residential Gas-Fired Water Heater 57

Residential Oil-Fired Water Heater 60

Residential Electric Resistance Water Heater 63

Residential Electric Heat Pump Water Heater 66

Residential Solar Water Heater 69

Residential Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heater 72

Residential Electric Instantaneous Water Heater 75

Residential Refrigerator/Freezer (Top-Mount) 78

Residential Refrigerator/Freezer (Side-Mount) 79 

Residential Refrigerator/Freezer (Bottom-Mount) 80 

Residential Freezers (Chest) 84 

Residential Freezers (Upright) 85

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops 88

Residential Natural Gas Ovens 89

Residential Natural Gas Ranges 90

Residential Electric Cooktops 93

Residential Electric Ovens 94

Residential Electric Ranges 95

Residential Clothes Dryers (Electric) 98

Residential Clothes Dryers (Gas) 99

Residential Clothes Washers (Front-Loading) 102

Residential Clothes Washers (Top-Loading) 103

Residential Dishwashers 106
Final Table of Contents

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces 110

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces 114

Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters 116

Commercial Electric Boilers 118

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers 120

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers 123

Commercial Centrifugal Chillers 126

Commercial Reciprocating Chillers 128

Commercial Screw Chillers 130

Commercial Scroll Chillers 132

Commercial Gas Fired Chillers 134

Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners 136

Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Driven Rooftop Air Conditioners 138

Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps 140

Commercial Ground-Source Heat Pumps 142

Packaged Terminal Air Conditioners 144

Packaged Terminal Heat Pumps 146

Commercial Gas-Fired Water Heater 149

Commercial Electric Resistance Water Heater 152

Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater 155

Commercial Oil-Fired Water Heater 157

Commercial Electric Booster Water Heater 159

Commercial Gas-Fired Booster Water Heater 160

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heater 162

Commercial Solar Water Heater 165

Commercial Gas Range with Griddle and Oven 168

Commercial Electric Range with Griddle and Oven 169

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinet - Small 173

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinet - Medium 174

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinet - Large 175

Data Sources A-1

References B-1
Final

Objective

The objective of this study is to develop baseline and projected performance/cost characteristics for residential and 

commercial end-use equipment.

• Installed base in 2012 and 2018 (for commercial products) or 2015 and 2020 (for residential products) and current 

market (2022)

— Review literature, standards, installed base, contractor, and manufacturer information

— Provide a relative comparison and characterization of the cost/efficiency of a generic product

• Forecast of technology improvements that are projected to be available through 2050

— Review trends in standards, product enhancements, and Research and Development (R&D)

— Project impact of product improvements and enhancement to technology

The performance/cost characterization of end-use equipment developed in this study will assist EIA in projecting 

national primary energy consumption.

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Final

Methodology

Input from industry stakeholders, including government, R&D organizations, and manufacturers, was used to project 

product enhancements concerning equipment performance and cost attributes.

• Technology forecasting involves many uncertainties.

• Technology developments impact performance and cost forecasts.

• Varied sources ensure a balanced view of technology progress and the probable timing of commercial availability.

• Only currently published efficiency standards and regulations are considered when predicting technology 

developments; unpublished future regulatory action is not predicted.

• All costs are shown in 2022 dollars (2022$).

• Ranges, when given, represent the span of typical values for a given parameter (e.g., installed cost for equipment 

meeting the federal standard) not the highest and lowest available on the market. 

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Final

Advanced Case Assumptions

The Advanced Case and Reference Case both assume current level of effort for standards. However, the Advanced 

Case assumes an increase in market incentive and federal R&D. The general approach for the Advanced Case is 

outlined below. 

• The Advanced Case considers future changes to product groups such as:

— Product or component changes that are fully developed but have not yet been commercialized

— Expected incremental improvements in existing technologies due to increased R&D

— Increased adoption of existing higher efficiency technology options due to increased market incentives

• The Advanced Case did not include future changes to product groups that are due to:

— Prototype technology changes or products that are in preliminary research that may have performance 

improvements but have only been demonstrated in theoretical calculations

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7
Final

Definitions

The following tables represent the current and projected efficiencies for residential and commercial building 

equipment ranging from the installed base in 2012 and 2018 (for commercial products) or 2015 and 2020 (for residential 

products) to the highest efficiency equipment that is expected to be commercially available by 2050, assuming 

incremental adoption. Below are definitions for the terms used in characterizing the status of each technology.

• Installed Base: Efficiency values are for those units installed and “in use” in that year. Cost values are for the typical 

new unit sold in that year.

• Current Standard: The minimum efficiency (or maximum energy use) that is required (allowed) by current U.S. 

Department of Energy (DOE) standards, when applicable.

• ENERGY STAR: The minimum efficiency that is required (or maximum energy use allowed) to meet the ENERGY 

STAR criteria, when applicable. The performance data that are presented are representative of certified products that 

just meet current ENERGY STAR specifications.

• Typical: Efficiency and cost values are for the average, or “typical,” product being sold in the particular timeframe. 

This may represent either the shipments-weighted average product performance or the most common product on the 

market.

• High: Efficiency and cost values are for the product with the highest efficiency available in the particular timeframe.

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Final

Market Transformation

The market for the reviewed products has changed since this analysis was previously conducted.1 These changes are 

noted and reflected in the efficiency and cost characteristics.

• In some categories the typical new product purchased today is more efficient than the average product in the installed 

base in 2012 (commercial) or 2015 (residential):

— Residential sector: boilers, central air conditioners, room air conditioners, gas-fired furnaces (North), gas-fired 

furnaces (Rest of Country), oil-fired furnaces, electric resistance furnaces, heat pump water heaters, gas-fired 

instantaneous water heaters, natural gas cooktops, natural gas ovens, refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, 

clothes washers, and dishwashers

— Commercial sector: gas-fired furnaces, oil-fired boilers, commercial rooftop heat pumps, commercial groundsource heat pumps, gas-fired instantaneous water heater, natural gas and electric ranges, griddles, and ovens

• More stringent Federal standards have taken effect for the following products:

— Gas-fired and oil-fired boilers in 2021

— Rooftop air conditioners and rooftop heat pumps in 2018

• Federal standards are slated to take effect in the coming years for the following products:

— Central air conditioners, residential air-source heat pumps, gas-fired furnaces, oil-fired furnaces, gas-fired boilers, 

oil-fired boilers, rooftop air conditioners, and rooftop heat pumps in 2023

— Portable air conditioners in 2025

• ENERGY STAR continues to raise the bar with revised criteria for:

— Central air conditioners, residential air-source heat pumps, rooftop air conditioners, rooftop heat pumps, 

residential water heaters, and dishwashers in 2023

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Note: The previous analysis is available in the EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018) report.
Final

Residential Space Heating and Cooling

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Final

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (North)

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DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

(North) 

V. 4.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h)180 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

AFUE (%) 80 80 80 90 95 99 95 99 95 99 95 99

Electric Consumption (kWh/y)2374 374 386 636 631 725 631 725 631 725 631 725

Average Life (y)3

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 1,300 1,300 1,080 1,200 1,220 1,390 1,220 1,390 1,220 1,390 1,220 1,390

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2,880 2,880 3,690 4,130 4,150 4,320 4,150 4,320 4,150 4,320 4,150 4,320

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 60 60 120 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130

Same as Reference Case 

1. Typical input capacity is represented in terms of thousand British thermal units (kBtu) per hour (i.e., kBtu/h).

2. Electric consumption, represented in terms of kilowatt hours per year (kWh/y), accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the furnace fan, draft inducer, and the ignitor. In some high efficiency products, this 

component also includes auxiliary equipment, such as condensate pumps and heat tape.

3. In the Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NOPR) Technical Support Document (TSD), an average lifetime of 22.5 years is calculated for gas-fired furnaces (North). Lifetime range was calculated using the 

Weibull Distribution in the Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR.

Note:

Models on the market can be either weatherized or non-weatherized. The majority (74%) are non-weatherized, and the values in the table use only non-weatherized data.

Electric consumption and cost values for 2022 and beyond are for a national sample and use the Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR Life-Cycle-Cost (LCC) spreadsheet.

Electric consumption and costs for the 2030, 2040, and 2050 high values are estimated based on the maximum-efficiency level analyzed in Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR, which is 98% annual fuel utilization efficiency (AFUE).

The current standard went into effect in November 2015.

ENERGY STAR V. 4.1 went into effect in February 2013.

The range for average life represents the span of typical values.
Final

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (Rest of Country)

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DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

(ROC) 

V. 4.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

AFUE (%) 80 80 80 90 90 99 95 99 95 99 95 99

Electric Consumption (kWh/y)1279 279 386 636 636 725 631 725 631 725 631 725

Average Life (y) 2

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 1,260 1,260 1,080 1,200 1,200 1,390 1,220 1,390 1,220 1,390 1,220 1,390

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2,380 2,380 3,690 4,130 4,130 4,320 4,150 4,320 4,150 4,320 4,150 4,320

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 40 40 120 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130

Same as Reference Case

1. Electric consumption accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the furnace fan, draft inducer, and the ignitor. In some high efficiency products, this component also includes auxiliary 

equipment, such as condensate pumps and heat tape.

2. In the Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR, an average lifetime of 21.5 years is calculated for gas-fired furnaces (Rest of Country). Lifetime range was calculated using the Weibull Distribution in the 

Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR.

Note:

Models on the market can be either weatherized or non-weatherized. The majority (74%) are non-weatherized, and the values in the table use only non-weatherized data.

Electric consumption and cost values for 2022 and beyond are for a national sample and use the Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR LCC spreadsheet.

Electric consumption and costs for the 2030, 2040, and 2050 high values are estimated based on the maximum-efficiency level analyzed in Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR, which is 98% AFUE.

The current standard went into effect in November 2015.

ENERGY STAR V. 4.1 went into effect in February 2013.

The range for average life represents the span of typical values.
Final

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces

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• Current Federal standards for non-weatherized gas furnaces:

— AFUE ≥ 80%

• ENERGY STAR V. 4.1 criteria for gas furnaces:

— South: AFUE ≥ 90%

— North: AFUE ≥ 95%

— Furnaces must be equipped with electronically commutated fan motor and have less than or equal to 2.0% air leakage

• Most efficient unit currently available: 99.0% AFUE. The current market is nearly evenly split between non-condensing units 

(AFUE≤82%) and condensing units (AFUE≥90%).

• The maximum AFUE for non-condensing gas furnaces is 82%; above this level, the potential for exhaust gas condensation 

increases. This condensate is corrosive and requires cost restrictive corrosion resistant venting.

• High-efficiency condensing furnaces typically have high-grade stainless steel (AL 29-4C) heat exchangers.

• Many condensing furnaces are available as direct vent and sealed combustion systems, which do not use room air for 

combustion, but instead draw combustion air directly from outdoors.

• Depending on the location of the home, piping materials in use, and other considerations, condensing furnaces may need an 

acid neutralizer and/or lift pump for the condensate.

• Furnaces may contain permanent split capacitor (PSC) fan motors or electronically commutated motors (ECMs). The type of 

motor affects the electrical consumption of the furnace as well as the seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER) / energy efficiency 

ratio (EER) of the associated air conditioner.

— The 2016 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furnace Fans Final Rule requires that all furnaces use ECM fans. 

— Most non-weatherized gas furnaces employ ECMs and can fully modulate rather than cycling on and off. Because they 

modulate, there is an increase in total fan-on time. 
Final

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces

Annual shipments reached 3.5 million units in 2005 and then declined each year until 2009, leveling off at about 2.25 

million units. Since 2012, shipments have increased steadily and reached a peak of 4.0 million units in 2021.

Source: Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI)

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Final

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces

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1. Electric consumption accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the furnace fan, draft inducer, and the ignitor. In some high efficiency products, this component also includes auxiliary 

equipment, such as condensate pumps and heat tape.

2. Lifetime range was calculated using the Weibull Distribution in Residential Furnaces EERE 2011.

Note:

The current standard went into effect in May 2013.

ENERGY STAR V. 4.1 went into effect in February 2013.

Ranges represent the span of typical values for a given parameter.

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105

AFUE (%) 83 83 83 85 85 97 85 97 85 97 85 97

Electric Consumption (kWh/y)1477 477 477 466 466 410 466 410 466 410 466 410

Average Life (y)2

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

2,620 2,620 2,620 2,650 2,650 3,170 2,650 3,170 2,650 3,170 2,650 3,170

3,450 3,450 3,450 3,490 3,490 4,090 3,490 4,090 3,490 4,090 3,490 4,090

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

3,250 3,250 3,250 3,480 3,480 5,140 3,480 5,140 3,480 5,140 3,480 5,140

6,520 6,520 6,520 6,820 6,820 10,110 6,820 10,110 6,820 10,110 6,820 10,110

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 80 80 80 80 80 240 80 240 80 240 80 240

Same as Reference Case
Final

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces

• Current Federal standards:

— AFUE ≥ 83%

— ≤ 11 watts of electrical power when in standby and off modes (non-weatherized models only)

• ENERGY STAR V. 4.1 criteria: AFUE ≥ 85%

• Since the latent heat content of oil is lower than that for either propane or natural gas, oil-fired appliances can typically 

operate at a higher AFUE rating than comparable gas-fired appliances before condensation issues arise.

• Most efficient unit currently available: 96.7% AFUE – condensing units with tiny market share (<1%), due to market 

acceptance issues. 

• Condensate from condensing oil furnaces is typically even more corrosive than that of gas-fired systems due to the 

higher sulfur content in fuel oil. Hence, condensing oil furnaces also likely require the use of an acid neutralizer.

• Oil-fired furnaces, like gas-fired furnaces, achieve condensing conditions through the use of a secondary heat 

exchanger. Typically, these secondary heat exchangers use a high-grade stainless steel (AL 29-4C).

• Sooting is an issue for all oil-fired appliances, but secondary heat exchangers, with their narrow passages, are even 

more prone to be plugged by soot. Because of this, condensing oil furnaces typically require frequent cleaning and 

maintenance.

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Final

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces

Annual shipments declined rapidly after 2004, likely due, at least in part, to an increase in fuel oil prices, which more 

than tripled from 2002 to 2008. Since 2012 shipments have largely leveled off.

Source: AHRI

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Final

DATA

2015 202012022 203022040220502

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

V. 3.0

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

AFUE (%) 82 95 84 95 90 96 95 96 95 96 95 96

Electric Consumption (kWh/y)3197 506 282 506 527 502 506 502 506 502 506 502

Average Life (y)

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 2,540 2,890 1,820 2,890 2,440 3,670 2,890 3,670 2,890 3,670 2,890 3,670

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 7,760 5,940 8,700 5,940 6,700 6,710 5,940 6,710 5,940 6,710 5,940 6,710

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)4110 160 150 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers

18

1. The 2020 AFUE is estimated based on EERE 2022 preliminary analysis, which estimates that gas-fired boilers with the highest market share in 2020 have an AFUE of 95%.

2. The 2030, 2040, 2050 projections are estimated based on the EERE 2022 preliminary analysis, which notes that majority of the market is expected to be condensing, if new standards are not implemented. The 

EERE 2022 preliminary analysis estimates a minimum efficiency of 95% AFUE for condensing units.

3. Electric Consumption accounts for the electricity consumption of auxiliary electrical components including circulating pump, the boiler pump (condensing boilers only), the draft inducer (if present), and the 

ignitor. It also accounts for the electricity consumption of auxiliary equipment such as a condensate pump and heat tape, which are sometimes installed with higher efficiency boilers. Additionally, it accounts 

for the additional cooling load due to heat loss from the boiler and water heater as a result of water heating during the cooling season.

4. Maintenance cost is the routine annual cost to the consumer of general maintenance for product operation. Maintenance cost is higher for condensing boilers for the inspection of condensate system and 

replacement of condensate neutralizer filter.

Note: 

The current standard went into effect in January 2021.

ENERGY STAR V. 3.0 went into effect in December 2013.

Water boilers considered. Steam boilers also exist but make up a small percentage of the market.

The range for average life represents the span of typical values.

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Same as Reference Case
Final

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers

• Federal standard for gas-fired hot-water boilers (more common than steam):

— AFUE ≥ 84% 

— Standard went into effect on January 21, 2021

• ENERGY STAR criteria: AFUE ≥ 90%

• Most efficient gas-fired boiler available: 96.4% AFUE

• Gas-fired boilers have lost market share to furnaces and heat pumps over the past 30 years.

• U.S. gas hot water boiler sales are split approximately 60/40 between condensing and non-condensing.1 Condensing 

boilers typically have heat exchangers made of stainless steel, and non-condensing boilers typically have heat 

exchangers made of cast iron.

• Typically, condensing boilers are low-mass in construction with modulating burners, variable-speed inducer fan 

systems or sealed powered direct-vent combustion, multiple sensor technologies, and electronic ignition and control.

• Due to incentives and market pressure, the U.S. boiler industry has been shifting towards also providing condensing 

boilers. Most of these boilers are private-labeled products sourced from Europe, where the hydronic market is much 

bigger and condensing appliances are much more common and/or required by law.

• Most value-added components for condensing boilers are sourced abroad, even when the condensing boiler is 

assembled in North America (e.g., heat exchanger, gas valve, burner, sensors, and/or controls).

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Source: EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis TSD, Chapter 3
Final

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers

Annual shipments had a significant decrease following the 2009 financial crisis and a steady recovery in the years 

since.

Source: Boilers EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

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Final

DATA

2015 202012022 203022040220502

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

V. 3.0

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140

AFUE (%) 84 86 86 86 87 88 87 95 87 95 87 95

Electric Consumption (kWh/y)3230 310 310 310 307 305 307 265 307 265 307 265

Average Life (y)4

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 4,850 3,590 3,590 3,590 3,680 3,770 3,680 6,890 3,680 6,890 3,680 6,890

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 9,800 5,510 5,510 5,510 5,600 5,690 5,600 11,910 5,600 11,910 5,600 11,910

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)4160 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers

21

1. The 2020 AFUE is estimated based on EERE 2022 preliminary analysis, which estimates that oil-fired boilers with the highest market share in 2020 have an AFUE of 86%.

2. The 2030, 2040, 2050 projections are estimated based on the EERE 2022 preliminary analysis, which notes that majority of the market is expected to be at 86% AFUE, if new standards are not implemented.

3. Electric Consumption accounts for the electricity consumption of auxiliary electrical components including circulating pump, the ignitor, condensate pump, and heat tape, which are sometimes installed with 

higher efficiency boilers. Additionally, it accounts for the additional cooling load due to heat loss from the boiler and water heater as a result of water heating during the cooling season.

4. Maintenance cost is the routine annual cost to the consumer of general maintenance for product operation. 

Note: 

The current standard went into effect in January 2021.

ENERGY STAR V. 3.0 went into effect in December 2013.

Water boilers considered. Steam boilers also exist but make up a small percentage of the market.

The range for average life represents the span of typical values.

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Typical AFUE and costs increase to ENERGY STAR levels. High AFUE and costs increase to condensing units.
Final

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers

• Federal standard for oil-fired hot-water boilers (more common than steam):

— AFUE ≥ 86% 

— Standard went into effect on January 21, 2021

• ENERGY STAR criteria: AFUE ≥ 87%

• Most efficient oil-fired boiler available: 88% AFUE

• Since the latent heat content of oil is lower than that for either propane or natural gas, oil-fired appliances can typically 

operate at a higher AFUE rating than comparable gas-fired appliances before condensation issues arise.

• Oil boilers have heat exchangers made of cast iron or steel. 

• No condensing oil-fired boilers currently exist in the U.S. market. The high sulfur content in fuel-oil causes heat 

exchanger fouling if the flue gases from an oil-fired boiler were to condense. As a result, condensing oil-fired boilers 

would require more frequent maintenance and repair, if installed.

• Advanced Case: Increased incentives move typical efficiency products to ENERGY STAR levels by 2030. The current 

typical efficiency product is at 86% AFUE, while ENERGY STAR is at 87%, with only a small difference in costs. It is 

expected that with more market incentives, manufacturers will produce more products that can be ENERGY STAR 

certified at the 87% level.

• Advanced Case: High efficiencies expected to be at 95% AFUE for condensing oil-fired boilers. These models are 

already seen in Europe and would be expected to re-enter the U.S. market as well.

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Final

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers

Annual shipments declined rapidly after 2004, likely due, at least in part, to an increase in fuel oil prices, which more 

than tripled from 2002 to 2008. Since 2012 shipments have largely leveled off.

Source: Boilers EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

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Final

Residential Electric Resistance Furnaces

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1. Costs for a 100% AFUE unit are assumed to be equal to the costs of a 98% AFUE unit.

Note:

The current standard went into effect in January 1992.

The range for average life represents the span of typical values.

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 68 68 68 68 68 68 68

AFUE (%) 98 98 100 100 100 100 100

Average Life (y)

15 15 15 15 15 15 15

30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)1760 760 950 950 950 950 950

Total Installed Cost (2022$)11,290 1,290 1,480 1,480 1,480 1,480 1,480

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)150 50 50 50 50 50 50

Same as Reference Case
Final

Residential Electric Resistance Furnaces

• Federal standards for electric furnaces:

— AFUE ≥ 78%

— Standby and off mode power consumption ≤ 10 watts

• According to preliminary Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) data released May 2022, electric central 

warm-air furnaces are the main source of space heating in approximately 17.5 million U.S. homes or about 14%. 

• Electric furnaces range in capacity from 10 to 25 kW (34 to 85 kBtu/h), with 20 kW (68 kBtu/h) being the typical for 

units on the market.

• Electric resistance furnaces are considered near 100% efficient because there is no flue heat loss, and any jacket losses 

are contained within the home. 

— ASHRAE Standard 103, the test method for furnaces incorporated by reference into the federal test procedure, 

specifies that for electric furnaces AFUE = 100 – 1.7 x jacket losses. Jacket losses can be determined either through 

testing or assumed to be 1%. Thus, the minimum AFUE of electric furnaces is 98.3%.

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Final

Residential Electric Resistance Unit Heaters

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1. Assumes similar lifetime to Electric Furnaces on the basis that both products have heating elements that burn out and lead to product failure. 

2. The lower bound of the equipment costs represents the average retail price listed at the typical capacity for electric baseboard heaters through a retailer website. The upper bound represents the 

average retail price for compact recessed electric wall heaters at the same capacity.

3. Range represents the estimated minimum and maximum installation costs. 

4. Maintenance costs are negligible.

DATA 

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 3.5 3.5 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1

Efficiency (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100

Average Life (y)1

15 15 15 15 15 15

30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)2

90 90 85 85 85 85

240 240 340 340 340 340

Total Installed Cost (2022$)3

150 150 390 390 390 390

320 320 1,190 1,190 1,190 1,190

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)4- - - - - -

Same as Reference Case
Final

Residential Electric Resistance Unit Heaters

• Electric resistance unit heaters include electric wall and baseboard heaters. Plug-in space heaters are not included.

• There are currently no federal efficiency requirements for electric resistance unit heaters.

• According to preliminary RECS data released May 2022, electric resistance unit heaters are the main source of space 

heating in approximately 8.25 million U.S. homes or about 7%. 

• Electric heaters range in capacity from 500 to 2,500 watts (1.7 to 8.5 kBtu/h), with 1,500 watts (5.1 kBtu/h) being the 

most typical for units on the market.

• Electric resistance heating is considered 100% energy efficient; all incoming electric energy is converted to heat.

27

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Final

Residential Central Air Conditioners – North (Not Hot-Dry or Hot-Humid)

28

1. Values shown are for split-system units in the 36 kBtu/h (3-ton) size class. Costs and efficiency levels are for "coil-only" systems, meaning they do not include a blower. Note blower-coil systems were 

analyzed for residential air-source heat pumps, which is why the "High" SEER levels are higher for heat pumps than for air conditioners.

2. In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps took effect. The new standards specify a different metric for central air conditioners (SEER2). SEER to 

SEER2 conversions were determined using the RESNET website.

3. Annual maintenance include preventative maintenance and services provided by HVAC professionals for maintaining product operation. Examples include, calibrate and level thermostat, clean filters, clean 

indoor and condenser coil, flush/treat condensate drain with anti-algae, inspect condenser coil, monitor operating pressure of refrigerant, inspect fan blade, etc.

Note:

The previous standard went into effect in January 2015. The current standard went into effect in January 2023.

ENERGY STAR V. 5.0 went into effect in September 2015. ENERGY STAR V. 6.1 went into effect in January 2023.

Ranges represent the span of typical values for a given parameter.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.0

High New 

Standard

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 6.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

SEER112.5 13.9 13.0 14.1 15.0 17.0 14.1 16.0 17.0 15.0 17.0 15.5 17.0 15.5 17.0

SEER2211.9 13.2 NA 13.4 NA 16.2 13.4 15.2 16.2 14.3 16.2 14.7 16.2 14.7 16.2

Average Life (y)

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 2,410 2,670 2,580 2,700 3,110 3,950 2,680 3,750 3,950 2,760 3,950 2,760 3,950 2,760 3,950

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 4,000 4,300 5,250 5,320 5,520 5,980 5,310 5,880 5,980 5,350 5,980 5,350 5,980 5,350 5,980

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)3

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Final

Residential Central Air Conditioners – South (Hot-Dry and Hot-Humid)

29

1. Values shown are for split-system units in the 36 kBtu/h (3-ton) size class. Costs and efficiency levels are for "coil-only" systems, meaning they do not include a blower. Note blower-coil systems were 

analyzed for residential air-source heat pumps, which is why the "High" SEER levels are higher for heat pumps than for air conditioners.

2. In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps took effect. The new standards specify a different metric for central air conditioners (SEER2). SEER to 

SEER2 conversions were determined using the RESNET website.

3. Annual maintenance include preventative maintenance and services provided by HVAC professionals for maintaining product operation. Examples include, calibrate and level thermostat, clean filters, clean 

indoor and condenser coil, flush/treat condensate drain with anti-algae, inspect condenser coil, monitor operating pressure of refrigerant, inspect fan blade, etc.

Note:

The previous standard went into effect in January 2015. The current standard went into effect in January 2023.

ENERGY STAR V. 5.0 went into effect in September 2015. ENERGY STAR V. 6.1 went into effect in January 2023.

Ranges represent the span of typical values for a given parameter.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.0

High New 

Standard

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 6.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

SEER113.0 14.4 14.0 14.6 15.0 17.0 15.1 16.0 17.0 15.5 17.0 16.0 17.0 16.0 17.0

SEER2212.4 13.7 NA 13.9 NA 16.2 14.3 15.2 16.2 14.7 16.2 15.2 16.2 15.2 16.2

Average Life (y)

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 2,410 2,760 2,680 2,850 3,110 3,950 3,110 3,750 3,950 3,190 3,950 3,190 3,950 3,190 3,950

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 4,000 4,390 5,310 5,390 5,520 5,980 5,520 5,880 5,980 5,570 5,980 5,570 5,980 5,570 5,980

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)3

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Final

Residential Central Air Conditioners

• The previous standards took effect in 2015; amended standards for all product classes went into effect in January 2023.

— Amended standards are based on new metrics (SEER2, EER2).

— SEER2 values are generally expected to be lower than SEER because a higher external static pressure is required 

during testing, which reduces measured performance.

• Systems installed in the Southwest (CA, AZ, NM, and NV) must also meet an EER standard that varies by cooling 

capacity and system configuration.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more cost-effective variable 

speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs.

30

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Final

Residential Central Air Conditioners

Annual shipments spiked at 6.5 million units in 2005 at the peak of the housing boom and just before more stringent 

Federal standards took effect in 2006. Annual shipments have been steadily increasing since 2010 and have almost 

reached the previous high in 2021. 

Source: AHRI

31

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Final

DATA

2015 2020 2022 203022040220502

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.2

High1 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10.0 10.0

CEER (Btu/Wh) 10.9 10.9 10.9 12.0 12.0 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 17.5 18.0

Average Life (y)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

560 330 330 340 340 450 450 450 460 460 470 470

710 480 480 480 480 590 590 590 610 610 620 620

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

640 490 490 490 490 600 600 600 610 610 630 630

830 630 630 640 640 750 750 750 760 760 770 770

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Residential Room Air Conditioners

32

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1. RAC EERE 2022 NOPR has analysis for combined energy efficiency ratio (CEER) of 16 Btu/Wh, which represents variable speed room air conditioners. However, maximum CEER identified in DOE’s 

Compliance Certification Database (CCD) in August 2022 was 15.7 Btu/Wh. Accordingly, the high CEER is estimated to be 15.7 for 2022 and beyond. Cost values for a representative unit with a CEER of 16 

Btu/Wh were used.

2. The 2030, 2040, 2050 projections are estimated based on RAC EERE 2022 NOPR, which notes that in the absence of no new standards, room air conditioners with a CEER of 12 Btu/Wh are expected to have the 

maximum market share.

3. Maintenance costs are negligible per RAC EERE 2011 and RAC EERE 2022 NOPR.

Note: 

All values are for the most common product class, Product Class 3 (without reverse cycle, with louvered sides, and 8,000 to 13,999 Btu/h).

The current standard went into effect in June 2014.

ENERGY STAR V. 4.2 went into effect in October 2015.

Ranges represent the span of typical values for a given parameter (for example, installed cost for equipment meeting the federal standard) not the highest and lowest available on the market.

Increased efficiency with corresponding cost increases.
Final

Residential Room Air Conditioners

• Analyzed the most common type of room air conditioners: louvered sides (window air conditioners) without reverse 

cycle and having cooling capacity of 8,000–13,999 Btu/h (DOE Product Class 3).

• Federal standards for Product Class 3:

— CEER ≥ 10.9 (beginning June 1, 2014)

• CEER incorporates energy use in cooling mode and standby and off modes.

• ENERGY STAR V. 4.2 criteria for Product Class 3:

— CEER ≥ 12.0 (effective October 26, 2015)

• Efficiency improvements in room air conditioners are attained by:

— Higher efficiency compressor and fan motors (including variable speed motors), and

— An increased heat transfer area in the evaporator and condenser using larger heat exchangers, finer fin spacing, 

micro-channel heat exchangers, and similar design options.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more efficient motors and 

compressors, larger cross-section heat exchangers, adoption of variable speed technologies) are expected to increase 

efficiency with corresponding increases in cost.

33

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Final

Residential Room Air Conditioners

Annual shipments dropped sharply in 2009, likely due to the recession and an unusually cool summer in the 

Northeast. Sales have largely leveled off in the years since, fluctuating between 6 and 8 million.

34

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Source: RAC EERE 2022 NOPR
Final

DATA

2015 2020 202242025 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High5 New Standard High5 Typical High5 Typical High5 Typical High5

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h)16.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6

CEER25.6 5.6 5.5 7.6 6.7 7.6 7.8 8.8 8.9 10.1 10.2 11.6

Average Life (y)

7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 700 700 700 810 760 810 810 810 820 820 830 830

Total Installed Cost (2022$)3700 700 700 810 760 810 810 810 820 820 830 830

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Residential Portable Air Conditioners

35

1. All values are for the average capacity for single-duct and dual-duct portable air conditioners available on the market.

2. CEER is calculated for typical capacity using the equation provided in PAC EERE 2020.

3. Installation and maintenance costs are negligible.

4. The 2022 Typical estimates are based on PAC EERE 2020, which estimated majority of the market to be at EL1 in 2022 for the no-new standards case, which translates to a CEER of 5.5 for this analysis.

5. All High values are based on the most-efficient models available in the market, as specified in PAC EERE 2020.

Note: 

A final rule for portable air cleaners published in January 2020 with an effective date of January 2025.

Costs are interpolated from the costs presented in PAC EERE 2020.

Range for lifetime represents typical values.

Return to Table of Contents

Increased efficiency with corresponding cost increases.
Final

Residential Portable Air Conditioners

• A final rule establishing new energy conservation standards for portable air conditioners published in January 2020 

with an effective date of January 2025.

• The final rule outlined an equation-based conservation standard (in CEER) for both single-duct and dual-duct portable 

ACs, based on the seasonally adjusted cooling capacity (SACC)

• Efficiency improvements in portable air conditioners are attained by:

— Higher efficiency compressor and fan motors (including variable speed motors), and

— An increased heat transfer area in the evaporator and condenser using larger heat exchangers, finer fin spacing, 

micro-channel heat exchangers, and similar design options.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more efficient motors and 

compressors, larger cross-section heat exchangers, adoption of variable speed technologies) are expected to increase 

efficiency with corresponding increases in cost.

36

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Final

Residential Portable Air Conditioners

Annual shipments have seen an exponential growth through 2014. Shipments data since 2014 is not publicly available 

but it is expected that portable air conditioners shipments may have increased in recent years in response to indoor air 

quality concerns following COVID-19.

Source: PAC EERE 2020

37

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Final

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Air Flow Rate (CFM) 3,800 3,800 3,800 4,700 3,800 4,700 3,800 4,700 3,800 4,700

Power (Hp) 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/2 1/3 1/2 1/3 1/2 1/3 1/2

Average Life (y)1

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 960 960 960 1,100 960 1,100 960 1,100 960 1,100

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 1,360 1,360 1,360 1,540 1,360 1,540 1,360 1,540 1,360 1,540

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330

Residential Swamp Coolers

38

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1. Average lifetime provided by major swamp cooler installer in the U.S. Southwest. 

Note:

Efficiency values were determined based on a sample of window-mounted swamp coolers.

Lifetime range represents span of typical values.

Same as reference case
Final

Residential Swamp Coolers

• Evaporative cooling (i.e., "swamp coolers") is a technology that takes advantage of water evaporation to cool incoming 

air. Energy is required to change water from a liquid to a vapor (i.e., the heat of vaporization), and in doing so, 

temperature of the air is reduced. Evaporative cooling is best suited for hot, dry climates.

• Swamp coolers come in a variety of different configurations, including centrally ducted units that are mounted outside 

a building or roof; window evaporative coolers that are window-mount units that pull in warm outdoor air, pass it 

through wet media to remove heat, and blow out the cooled air; or portable plug-in units. Window units were 

considered for this analysis due to the high model share count on distributor websites. 

• The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has cautioned against using swamp coolers in wildfire-impacted 

areas in smoky conditions because it can result in more smoke bring brought inside. 

• Swamp coolers are not a DOE-covered product.

• Swamp cooler metrics include power of the fan/blower, measured in horsepower (hp), and air flow rate, measured in 

cubic feet per minute (CFM).

39

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Single-inlet direct swamp cooler. Source: PNNL
Final

Residential Air-Source Heat Pumps

40

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DATA

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.0

High New 

Standard

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 6.1

ENERGY 

STAR Cold 

Climate 

Criteria

High4 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

SEER (Cooling)113.1 15.3 14.0 15.3 15.0 22.6 15.0 16.0 NA 22.6 16.5 22.6 17.0 22.6 17.5 22.6

SEER2212.4 14.5 NA 14.5 NA 21.5 14.3 15.2 15.2 21.5 15.7 21.5 16.2 21.5 16.6 21.5

HSPF (Heating)17.9 8.6 8.2 8.6 8.5 12.4 8.8 9.2 NA 12.4 9.3 12.4 9.3 12.4 9.4 12.4

HSPF226.7 7.3 NA 7.3 NA 10.6 7.5 7.8 8.1 10.6 7.9 10.6 7.9 10.6 8.0 10.6

Average Life (y) 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)1 3,290 4,270 3,970 4,270 4,110 6,740 4,110 4,380 4,380 6,740 4,380 6,740 5,000 6,740 5,100 6,740

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)1 5,790 6,880 6,730 6,880 6,810 8,620 6,810 6,940 6,940 8,620 6,940 8,620 7,240 8,620 7,330 8,620

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)3

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

1. Values shown are for split-system units in the 36 kBtu/h (3-ton) size class. Costs and efficiency levels are for "blower-coil" systems, meaning they include a blower. Note coil-only systems were analyzed for residential central air 

conditioners, which is why the "High" SEER levels are higher for heat pumps than for air conditioners. 

2. In 2023, new energy conservation standards for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps took effect. The new standards specify different metrics for Air-Source Heat Pumps (SEER2 and heating seasonal performance 

factor 2 (HSPF2)). SEER to SEER2 and HSPF to HSPF2 conversions were determined using the RESNET website. 

3. Annual maintenance include preventative maintenance and services provided by HVAC professionals for maintaining product operation. Examples include, calibrate and level thermostat, clean filters, clean indoor and condenser 

coil, flush/treat condensate drain with anti-algae, inspect condenser coil, monitor operating pressure of refrigerant, inspect fan blade, etc.

4. High costs derived from developing a cost-efficiency curve between retail/installed costs and SEER.

Note:

The previous standard went into effect in January 2015. The current standard went into effect in January 2023.

ENERGY STAR V. 5.0 went into effect in September 2015. ENERGY STAR V. 6.1 went into effect in January 2023.

Ranges represent the span of typical values for maintenance costs.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α), shape (β), and delay (θ) parameters: (15.88, 2, 1).

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as reference case despite increased efficiency
Final

Residential Air-Source Heat Pumps

• The previous standards took effect in 2015; amended standards for all product classes went into effect in January 2023.

— Amended standards are based on new metrics (SEER2, EER2, HSPF2).

— SEER2 values are generally expected to be lower than SEER because a higher external static pressure is required 

during testing, which reduces measured performance.

• High efficiency cooling does not necessarily correlate with high efficiency heating. The range of SEER–HSPF 

combinations is very broad.

• Heat pumps are generally sized to meet the cooling load of the house. When the heating load exceeds heat pump 

heating capacity, electric resistance heat is used to supplement.

• Variable-speed compressors improve efficiency of heat pumps by reducing cyclic losses and by operating above their 

nominal speed, boosting heating capacity, and reducing the need for supplementary electric resistance heat.

• In addition to meeting the SEER2 and HSPF2 requirements, air source heat pumps must demonstrate low ambient 

performance to earn the Cold Climate designation by meeting the following:

— Coefficient of Performance (COP) at 5 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) ≥ 1.75, measured in accordance with Appendix M1 

H42test

— Percent of Heating Capacity at 5 °F ≥ 70% of that at 47 °F, with the 5 °F capacity measured per Appendix M1 H42

test and the 47 °F capacity measured as the nominal heating capacity per Appendix M1 (i.e., from the Appendix 

M1 H1N test for units having a variable-speed compressor where the compressor speed shall be the maximum 

speed that the system controls would operate at 47 °F, otherwise from the Appendix M1 H12test) 

— Perform a controls verification procedure (CVP) to confirm that the above performance metrics measured at the 

Appendix M1 low ambient test point at 5 °F are achieved by the native controls operating as they would in a 

customer’s home

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more cost-effective variable 

speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs.

41

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Final

Residential Air-Source Heat Pumps

From 2000 to 2005 annual shipments increased nearly 60% to 2.1 million units, then dropped and leveled off around 

1.7 million units. In 2014 annual shipments surpassed the 2005 peak and have been increasing uniformly since then. 

42

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Source: AHRI
Final

Residential Central Air Conditioners and Air-Source Heat Pumps

• Principal energy efficiency drivers for central air conditioners and heat pumps:

— Heat exchanger (surface area, number of tube rows)

— Compressor (type and single-stage vs. two-stage vs. variable-speed operation)

— Fan motor choices (PSC vs. ECM fan motors on inside and outside)

— Control choices (i.e., piston, thermal, and electronic expansion valves)

• When the heat pump or air conditioner’s capacity exceeds the heating or cooling load, the unit starts and stops more 

frequently, causing wear and tear on the components and an overall loss of efficiency. Multi-stage and/or variablespeed compressors can help, as does sophisticated refrigerant management.

• Typical high-efficiency unit (≥ 16 SEER) has very large heat exchanger, ECM evaporator fan motor, and two-stage 

scroll compressor.

• Variable-speed compressor technology typically leads to a significant SEER boost, making possible high-SEER 

condensing units with smaller heat exchangers, and thus, smaller enclosures.

• Efficiency levels > 21 SEER made possible through combining existing large heat exchangers with variable-speed 

compressors, ECM fan motors, and electronic expansion valves.

43

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Final

Residential Ductless Mini-Split Air-Source Heat Pumps

44

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DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h)112 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

SEER 16.0 16.0 21.9 33.1 21.9 33.1 21.9 33.1 21.9 33.1

EER 12.5 12.5 13.0 19.1 13.0 19.1 13.0 19.1 13.0 19.1

HSPF 10.0 10.0 11.1 14.0 11.1 14.0 11.1 14.0 11.1 14.0

Average Life (y)215.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 1,580 1,580 1,580 1,580 1,580 1,580 1,580 1,580 1,580 1,580

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,030

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)3100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

1. Representative capacity determined from most frequent capacity in AHRI database

2. Assumed same lifespan and maintenance cost as air-source heat pumps given the technology is similar between air-source and ductless mini-split heat pumps, and ductwork itself is not expected to fail.

3. Annual maintenance covers the same services identified for air-source heat pumps.

Note:

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α), shape (β), and delay (θ) parameters: (15.88, 2, 1).

Same as reference case
Final

Residential Ductless Mini-Split Air-Source Heat Pumps

• Ductless systems can be useful in “spot cooling” certain high-use areas of a home, such as a living room, bedroom, or 

office. 

• Mini-split heat pumps are generally more efficient (often > 20 SEER) and smaller in cooling capacity (often ≤ 24 kBtu/h) 

compared to split-system heat pumps.

— A mini-split heat pump could be equal in capacity and efficiency to a split-system heat pump as there are no 

inherent design changes between split-system and mini-split heat pumps, aside from the ductwork. Mini-split heat 

pumps tend to be more efficient and smaller in capacity due to their prevalence for spot cooling, but the same 

technologies are used between the two product categories.

• Due to the similarities in design, cost estimations were determined based on smaller capacity (24 kBtu/h) split-system 

heat pumps and Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building Construction Costs 2023. Efficiency data was analyzed using the 

AHRI directory, which provides disaggregation of data on the basis of ducted and ductless heat pumps. 

• Annual maintenance covers the same services identified for air-source heat pumps.

45

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Final

Residential Ground-Source Heat Pumps

46

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DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.2

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

COP (Heating)13.1 3.7 3.2 3.6 3.6 4.5 3.6 4.5 3.6 4.5 3.6 4.5

EER (Cooling)213.3 17.3 14.1 17.3 17.1 22.0 17.3 22.0 17.3 22.0 17.3 22.0

Average Life (y)

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 4,650 5,470 4,820 5,470 5,410 6,530 4,920 5,880 4,920 5,880 4,920 5,880

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

14,060 14,880 14,230 14,880 14,880 15,940 13,390 14,350 13,390 14,350 13,390 14,350

22,290 23,120 22,470 23,120 23,120 24,170 20,810 21,750 20,810 21,750 20,810 21,750

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

1. COP values listed are assessed at a "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop ground source heat pumps (GSHP) operating conditions. However, DOE sets standards at a "water 

loop" test condition. The AHRI directory lists COP ratings at both sets of test conditions and is used to convert between them where necessary. 

2. EER values listed are assessed at a full-load "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, DOE sets standards at a full-load "water loop" test 

condition. The AHRI directory lists EER ratings at all sets of test conditions and is used to convert between them where necessary.

Note: 

Residential and commercial GSHPs are very similar - the main difference in data presented is the different capacity (3-ton vs. 4-ton) and slightly higher installation costs for commercial GSHP. DOE does not 

distinguish between residential and commercial units in its regulations.

Current standards went into effect on October 9, 2015. COP and EER ratings are converted from the “water loop” test condition to “ground loop.”

ENERGY STAR V. 3.2 went into effect January 1, 2012.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α), shape (β), and delay (θ) parameters: (17.04, 1.64, 1).

Same typical efficiencies with the lower costs as ref. case despite same efficiency.
Final

Residential Ground-Source Heat Pumps

• Heating COP does not correlate with cooling EER.

• The ENERGY STAR criteria for water-to-air ground-source heat pumps are:

• The most common GSHP is a closed-loop system in which water or an anti-freeze solution is circulated through plastic 

pipes buried underground. Open loop systems that employ ground water or surface water (e.g., open well, pond, lake) 

are used in some parts of the country, but water supply and water quality issues impose limitations on such 

applications.

• Installation cost is for a closed loop system and includes necessary accessories. The ground loop heat exchanger 

represents a majority of the installation cost. Installed costs for these systems vary widely. 

• Variable speed ECMs improve performance on high-end models.

• Advanced Case: GSHP are already highly efficient and have not changed much in terms of efficiency in recent years. 

With increased R&D, it is anticipated that the equipment and installation costs will be reduced over time, but 

efficiency will likely stay the same. 

47

Type Heating 

COP

Cooling 

EER

Closed Loop 3.6 17.1

Open Loop 4.1 21.1

Direct Expansion 3.6 16

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Final

Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps

48

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DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 60 60 60 60 60 60

COP (Heating) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

COP (Cooling) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Annual Electric Use (kWh/y)1

1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

Average Life (y)2

12 12 12 12 12 12

18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)2

12,940 12,940 12,940 12,940 12,940 12,940

14,350 14,350 14,350 14,350 14,350 14,350

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2

14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700

17,290 17,290 17,290 17,290 17,290 17,290

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 200 200 200 200 200 200

1. Annual electric use accounts for the electricity consumption of components such as the heat pump fan.

Note:

Ranges represent the span of typical values observed in the market.

Same as reference case
Final

Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps

• Residential natural gas heat pumps are not currently subject to DOE regulations. The California Energy Commission’s 

(CEC) Title 24, Part 6 Section 112 does indicate cooling efficiency requirements for natural gas heat pumps.

• Natural gas heat pumps are much more popular in other parts of the world, such as Europe. Gas-fired cooling 

equipment currently comprises less than 1% of the residential air conditioning/heat pump market in the U.S. 

• Currently, Robur is the predominant manufacturer of residential-sized natural gas heat pumps with sales operations 

in the U.S.. Robur units are 5-ton nominal cooling capacity, a size typically associated with larger homes. Since only 

one product is available, no mid-level or high efficiency categories are included in this analysis. 

• The data represents air-source absorption heat pumps. Gas engine-driven vapor compression heat pumps are 

available in other parts of the world; York formerly offered the Triathlon gas engine-driven heat pump in the U.S. It is 

possible to couple either technology to the ground (ground-source) rather than the atmosphere (air-source).

• The absorption heat pump is a gas-fired, ammonia-water absorption cycle, combined with a high-efficiency lowpressure boiler integrated into one outdoor unit.

• The cooling efficiency of a gas-fired air-source absorption heat pump is considerably lower than for an electric airsource heat pump. Heating efficiency of an air-source heat pump (electric or gas-fired absorption) decreases as 

outdoor temperature decreases; however, the gas-fired absorption heat pump recovers waste heat from the 

combustion process to improve heating efficiency.

49

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Final

Residential Cordwood Stoves

50

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1. For 2015, assumed EPA default efficiencies, which were used by EPA to approximate the efficiency of stoves before the 2015 EPA rule required efficiency testing.

2. For 2020, assumed same efficiencies as estimated for 2022 given the most recent EPA rule went into effect in May 2020.

3. The 2022 High value is the highest EPA certified efficiency. The 2022 Typical value is the average of EPA certified efficiencies.

4. For 2030-2050, it is assumed that the same conditions as current would persist because no impending efficiency requirements are expected from EPA, given recency of 2020 rulemaking and current market 

factors.

5. Efficiency includes combustion and heat transfer efficiency and is based on the higher heating value (HHV) of the fuel.

6. Installed costs include the cost of hearth and stainless-steel chimney liner - materials and labor.

7. For catalytic stoves, annual maintenance cost includes periodic cost of replacing the catalytic combustor.

Note: 

The range for average life represents the span of typical values.

DATA

201512020220223203042040420504

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Efficiency (Non-Catalytic) (HHV)563 71 71 80 71 80 71 80 71 80

Efficiency (Catalytic) (HHV)572 76 76 81 76 81 76 81 76 81

Average Life (y)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) (NonCatalytic) 2,880 1,670 1,670 2,300 1,670 2,300 1,670 2,300 1,670 2,300

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) (Catalytic) 3,540 3,040 3,040 3,830 3,040 3,830 3,040 3,830 3,040 3,830

Total Installed Cost (2022$) (NonCatalytic)6 8,290 7,090 7,090 7,710 7,090 7,710 7,090 7,710 7,090 7,710

Total Installed Cost (2022$) (Catalytic)68,950 8,460 8,460 9,240 8,460 9,240 8,460 9,240 8,460 9,240

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) (NonCatalytic)7 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 

(Catalytic)7 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 280

Same as reference case
Final

Residential Cordwood Stoves

• Residential cordwood stoves that must meet EPA particulate limits fall into two broad classes based on whether they 

use a catalyst for air treatment. Catalytic wood stoves use a catalytic combustor to reduce emissions from the 

combustion air. Non-catalytic wood stoves use baffles and introduce secondary air above the flames to enable more 

complete combustion and reduce emissions. 

• In 2015, EPA published an update to its New Source Performance Standards (NSPS), decreasing the emissions limit 

(previously set by 1988 EPA rule) to 4.5 grams per hour (g/h) for both catalytic and non-catalytic stoves. The new rule 

did not institute efficiency standards but required that manufacturers test and certify the efficiency of their stoves. This 

standard took full effect on January 1, 2016.

• In 2020, the NSPS limit for new room heaters was lowered to 2.5 g/h if tested with cord wood. 

• Prior to the 2015 rule, manufacturers could either submit efficiency data from laboratory testing or certify with the 

default efficiency value designated by EPA. EPA’s default efficiency values were 63% for non-catalytic wood stoves 

and 72% for catalytic wood stoves. Under this system, few manufacturers submitted efficiency test data to EPA.

• Multiple test standards are commonly used to assess stove efficiency, and data from product literature does not 

generally identify the efficiency test method. 

• It is not possible to determine performance trends based on construction or configuration (e.g., cast iron vs. plate steel, 

powered blowers vs. no blowers, etc.) trends in specific equipment type or construction based on published 

efficiencies. Further, EPA certification data shows no significant relationship between emissions and heating 

efficiency.

• Cordwood stoves require chimneys for venting combustion gases. Whether conventional masonry chimneys are used 

or metal chimney liners, these add considerable cost to the overall system. Accordingly, installed costs can be twice 

that of the wood stove itself. 

51

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Final

Residential Cordwood Stoves

Cordwood stove shipments have averaged 123,000 per year since 1999 and have fluctuated approximately in 

accordance with fuel oil costs.

Source: HPBA, no post-2012 sales data was publicly available at time of publication.

52

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Final

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves

53

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1. For 2015, assumed EPA default efficiencies, which were used by EPA to approximate the efficiency of stoves before the 2015 EPA rule required efficiency testing.

2. For 2020, assumed same efficiencies as estimated for 2022 given the most recent EPA rule went into effect in May 2020.

3. The 2022 High value is the highest EPA certified efficiency. The 2022 Typical value is the average of EPA certified efficiencies.

4. For 2030-2050, it is assumed that the same conditions as current would persist because no impending efficiency requirements are expected from EPA, given recency of 2020 rulemaking and current market 

factors.

5. Efficiency includes combustion and heat transfer efficiency and is based on the HHV of the fuel.

6. The annual electric consumption estimates assume 6 months/year @ 100kW/mo based on DOE estimates. 

7. Installed cost includes cost of hearth and vent pipe - materials and labor.

Note: 

The range for average life represents the span of typical values.

DATA

201512020220223203042040420504

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Efficiency (HHV)570 73 73 85 73 85 73 85 73 85

Annual Electricity Consumption (kWh)6600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

Average Life (y)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 3,900 3,120 3,120 4,000 3,120 4,000 3,120 4,000 3,120 4,000

Total Installed Cost (2022$)75,550 4,520 4,520 5,400 4,520 5,400 4,520 5,400 4,520 5,400

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310

Same as reference case
Final

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves

• In 2015, EPA published an update to its NSPS, limiting emissions for wood pellet stoves to 4.5 g/h. Prior to the 2015 

EPA rule, most pellet stoves were exempt from EPA’s NSPS requirements. The new rule did not institute efficiency 

standards but required that manufacturers test and certify the efficiency of their stoves. This standard took full effect 

on January 1, 2016.

• Prior to the 2015 rule, manufacturers could either submit efficiency data from laboratory testing or certify with the 

default efficiency value designated by EPA. EPA’s default efficiency values were 63% for non-catalytic wood stoves 

and 72% for catalytic wood stoves. Under this system, few manufacturers submitted efficiency test data to EPA.

• Multiple test standards are commonly used to assess stove efficiency and data from product literature does not 

generally identify the efficiency test method. 

• It is not possible to determine performance trends based on construction or configuration (e.g., cast iron vs. plate steel, 

powered blowers vs. no blowers, etc.) trends in specific equipment type or construction based on published 

efficiencies. Further, EPA certification data shows no significant relationship between emissions and heating 

efficiency.

• Wood pellet stoves may be able to be direct vented to the outdoors, eliminating the need for a chimney. This reduces 

the overall system cost as compared to a cord wood stove. However, they do use electricity to power the pellet feeder, 

the combustion air fan, and the blower. In the event of a power outage, a pellet stove can not operate without some 

back-up source of electricity (e.g., battery) . 

54

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Final

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves

Wood pellet stove shipments grew substantially in the 2005 – 2008 time period but have averaged only 40,000 – 60,000 

units since that time.

Source: HPBA, no post-2012 sales data was publicly available at time of publication.

55

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Final

Residential Water Heating

56

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Final

Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

57

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.0

High

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.0

Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF)10.58 0.63 0.61 0.61 0.66 0.84 0.83 0.78 0.84 0.78 1.33 0.78 1.33

Average Life (y) 13 13 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)

590 880 420 420 490 720 700 420 720 420 720 420 720

650 1,410 990 990 1,110 1,650 1,590 990 1,650 990 1,650 990 1,650

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

1,240 1,650 740 740 800 1,140 1,130 740 1,140 740 1,140 740 1,140

1,240 2,880 1,690 1,690 1,850 3,130 3,160 1,690 3,130 1,690 3,130 1,690 3,130

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

1. Analysis is based on an average of medium and high draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of the market.

2. Maintenance includes manufacturer recommendation for the water heater to be drained and flushed annually to minimize deposition of sediment, maintain operating efficiency, and prolong product 

life. Available evidence indicates that this is performed in 10% of households.

Note:

Ranges represent the span of typical values.

Current standards went into effect April 16, 2015.

ENERGY STAR V. 4.0 went into effect January 5, 2022

ENERGY STAR V. 5.0 will go into effect April 18, 2023

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α), shape (β), and delay (θ) parameters: (15.1, 1.76, 1).

Increased typical efficiencies with associated increase in costs to reflect condensing units.

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

• The equations for Federal Standards and the voluntary ENERGY STAR requirements, if applicable, are:

• There are currently no models on the market above 55 gallons (gal) due to the high UEF, which would require using 

condensing or gas-fired heat pump (e.g., absorption) technology to achieve.

• The cost of installation is typically $600 to $1200, which exceeds that of electric water heaters. This difference can be 

attributed to multiple differences; for example, gas-fired heaters require an extra 1.5 hours of labor for 2 plumbers. 

• Condensing units are high efficiency and use PVC venting instead of stainless-steel. Condensing units also use an 

electrical supply for electronic ignition and power venting. Some building codes require condensate neutralizer filters.

• Advanced Case: Condensing gas-fired storage water heaters are expected to dominate the market by 2030, with 

corresponding price increases.

58

Volume 

Range Draw Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

≥ 20 gal and ≤ 

55 gal

Very Small UEF=0.3456-(0.002*Gal) No models on the market NA

Low UEF=0.5982-(0.0019*Gal) 0.54 for a 29-gallon water heater NA

Medium UEF=0.6483-(0.0017*Gal) 0.58 for a 38-gallon water heater 0.64

High UEF=0.692-(0.0013*Gal) 0.64 for a 48-gallon water heater 0.68

> 55 gal and ≤ 

100 gal

Very Small UEF=0.647-(0.0006*Gal) No models on the market NA

Low UEF=0.7689-(0.0005*Gal) No models on the market NA

Medium UEF=0.7897-(0.0004*Gal) No models on the market 0.78

High UEF=0.8072-(0.0003*Gal) No models on the market 0.80

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

Return to Table of Contents
Final

0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Unit Shipments (millions)

Residential Gas-Fired Water Heaters

Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

Shipments were flat at 5 million units per year through 2004, then declined gradually over 5 years to a new plateau at 

4 million units until rising again back to 5 million units in 2021.

Source: AHRI

59

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Final

Residential Oil-Fired Water Heaters

60

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32

Uniform Energy Factor10.51 0.67 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.66 0.68 0.66 0.68 0.66 0.68

Average Life (y) 13 13 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

1,590 1,880 1,380 1,400 1,480 1,400 1,480 1,400 1,480 1,400 1,480

1,710 2,410 2,810 2,870 3,030 2,870 3,030 2,870 3,030 2,870 3,030

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

2,350 2,650 2,620 2,650 2,730 2,650 2,730 2,650 2,730 2,650 2,730

2,470 3,350 4,050 4,120 4,280 4,120 4,280 4,120 4,280 4,120 4,280

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)2210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210

1. Analysis is based on an average of medium and high draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of the market.

2. Oil-fired storage water heaters are typically cleaned and maintained under maintenance contracts. The annual cost of typical maintenance is based on maintenance contract prices from 

different oil-fired product suppliers as specified in the CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis.

Note:

Ranges represent span of typical values.

Current standards went into effect April 16, 2015.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α), shape (β), and delay (θ) parameters: (16.2, 1.70, 1).

Same as Reference Case 

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Oil-Fired Water Heaters

• The equations for Federal Standards and the voluntary ENERGY STAR requirements, if applicable, are:

• There are no ENERGY STAR requirements for oil-fired storage water heaters.

• Annual shipments of residential oil-fired storage water heaters are approximately 4,000, which is less than 1% of 

shipments of residential gas-fired storage water heaters. 

• Oil-fired storage water heaters often have smaller tanks with larger input ratings relative to natural gas-fired and 

electric storage water heaters.

• No condensing residential oil-fired storage water heaters currently exist in the U.S. market. Condensing oil-fired water 

heaters are generally not considered technologically feasible because the sulfur content in fuel oil leads to the 

condensate becoming corrosive.

• Residential oil-fired water heaters utilize power burners and have at least some level of electrical power consumption. 

• The most efficient models on the market use a proprietary “turbo-flue” design to increase heat transfer to water.

61

Volume 

Range

Draw 

Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

≤ 50 gal

Very Small UEF=0.2509-(0.0012*Gal) No models on the market NA

Low UEF=0.533-(0.0016*Gal) No models on the market NA

Medium UEF=0.6078-(0.0016*Gal) No models on the market NA

High UEF=0.6815-(0.0014*Gal) 0.64 for a 29-gallon water heater NA

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Oil-Fired Water Heaters

Shipments peaked at about 22,000 units in 2000 and have decreased since then, with an exponential decay occurring 

since 2007. Only about 4,000 units were shipped in 2021.

Source: CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

62

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0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Unit Shipments (thousands)

Residential Oil-Fired Water Heaters
Final

Residential Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

63

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Uniform Energy Factor10.88 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.93

Average Life (y) 13 13 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

290 350 330 330 600 330 600 330 600 330 600

530 650 760 760 850 760 850 760 850 760 850

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

590 710 500 500 550 500 550 500 550 500 550

940 1,290 1,310 1,310 1,430 1,310 1,430 1,310 1,430 1,310 1,430

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)220 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

1. Beginning in 2016, the efficiency metric for water heaters changed from energy factor (EF) to UEF based on DOE test procedures. The UEF values for the installed base in 2015 are 

converted values equivalent to 0.90 EF. Analysis is based on an average of low and medium draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of the market.

2. Similar to gas-fired and oil-fired storage water heaters, manufacturers recommend that electric storage water heaters be drained and flushed annually to minimize deposition of sediment, 

maintain operating efficiency, and prolong product life. The available evidence indicates that this practice is done in 10% of households.

Note:

Ranges represent span of typical values.

Current standards went into effect April 16, 2015.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α), shape (β), and delay (θ) parameters: (15.7, 1.57, 1).

Same as Reference Case 

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

• The equations for Federal Standards and the voluntary ENERGY STAR requirements, if applicable, are:

• The federal standards for residential electric storage water heaters apply to both electric resistance storage water heaters 

and heat pump water heaters.

— The Federal standard levels for the ≤ 55-gallon range are achievable through electric resistance and heat pump 

technology.

— The Federal standards for the > 55-gallon range and all ENERGY STAR levels are only achievable through heat pump 

technology. 

• Typical storage volumes range from 25-55 gallons for electric resistance storage water heaters and 45-80 gallons for heat 

pump water heaters (HPWHs).

64

Volume 

Range

Draw 

Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

≥ 20 gal and 

≤ 55 gal

Very Small UEF=0.8808-(0.0008*Gal) No models on the market 2.00

Low UEF=0.9254-(0.0003*Gal) 0.92 for a 27-gallon water heater 2.00

Medium UEF=0.9307-(0.0002*Gal) 0.92 for a 45-gallon water heater 2.00

High UEF=0.9349-(0.0001*Gal) 0.93 for a 50-gallon water heater 2.00

> 55 gal and 

≤ 120 gal

Very Small UEF=1.9236-(0.0011*Gal) No models on the market 2.20

Low UEF=2.0440-(0.0011*Gal) No models on the market 2.20

Medium UEF=2.1171-(0.0011*Gal) 2.05 for a 58-gallon water heater 2.20

High UEF=2.2418-(0.0011*Gal) 2.15 for a 80-gallon water heater 2.20

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

Shipments peaked in 2006 then dropped a total of 22 percent over three years. Shipments have gradually increased 

since then and were at the highest level in 2021.

Source: AHRI

65

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0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Unit Shipments (millions)

Residential Electric Resistance Water Heaters
Final

Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters

66

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical ENERGY STAR V. 4.0 High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Uniform Energy Factor12.05 3.28 3.33 3.30 3.73 3.33 3.73 3.33 3.73 3.33 3.73

Average Life (y) 13 13 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)2

1,290 1,410 630 630 670 630 670 630 670 630 670

1,650 1,760 1,440 1,440 1,670 1,370 1,590 1,300 1,510 1,240 1,430

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2

1,710 1,880 870 870 980 870 980 870 980 870 980

2,940 3,000 2,230 2,230 2,450 2,120 2,330 2,010 2,210 1,910 2,100

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)320 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

1. Analysis is based on an average of low and medium draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of the market.

2. It is expected that costs for HPWHs will decrease over time as these products become more common. This analysis estimates these cost decreases for the higher range of costs.

3. For heat pump water heater design options, DOE assumed higher maintenance cost to take into account annual cleaning of the air filter, preventative maintenance cost to check the evaporator and 

refrigeration system, inspection of the condensate withdrawal system, and replacement of the condensate neutralizer filter, if applicable. However, this maintenance is estimated to occur in only 

10% of households, so overall maintenance cost is similar to that of other electric resistance water heaters. 

Note:

Ranges represent span of typical values.

ENERGY STAR V. 4.0 went into effect January 5, 2022.

Assume same lifetime as electric resistance water heaters.

Same as Reference Case 

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters

• Technology improvements have advanced efficiency and reliability, but the high first-cost and lack of awareness 

among consumers and contractors still precludes high-volume market penetration. 

• New Federal standards that came into effect in April 2015 effectively mandate heat pump technology for electric 

storage water heaters with storage volume > 55 gallons.

• Integrated models are the most common configuration for residential HPWHs. Several major water heater 

manufacturers produce such models, and other competitors offer integrated or add-on units (for existing electric or 

indirect storage water heaters). 

• Sales are estimated to be driven partly by rebates and tax credits at the utility, local, state, and Federal level. 

• Resistive heating elements are virtually 100% efficient, but there is a jump in efficiency when heat pump technology is 

adopted because heat pumps’ COP are usually between 2.5 and 4.

• Heat pumps raise the water temperature more slowly than resistive heating elements, so most models use backup 

resistive elements along with the heat pump when hot water demand is high. Most HPWHs allow the consumer to 

control whether resistive elements are used in periods of high demand (e.g., “hybrid mode” or “heat pump only 

mode”).

67

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Final

Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters

Shipments make up a small portion of electric resistance heaters, with a peak of only about 5,500 units, occurring in 

both 2015 and 2021. 

Source: ENERGY STAR

68

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Unit Shipments (thousands)

Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters
Final

Residential Solar Water Heaters

69

1. Capacity selections are based on the range observed from medium draw units in the ENERGY STAR database. Medium draw represented the largest portion of units.

2. An SUEF of 3.0 is the required threshold for ENERGY STAR certification, yet a value of 99 was the most common observed SUEF among medium draw units. Note that an SUEF of 99 indicates that no 

backup heating was required for the applicable draw pattern, and all energy was provided by the solar collector. Since SUEF is a measure of hot water energy out divided by electrical or gas backup 

energy in, it will be infinite for cases where the collector provides all the hot water needed for the draw pattern – the Solar Rating and Certification Corporation’s (SRCC’s) OG-300 software is written 

to assign an SUEF of 99 to this case.

3. Annual maintenance is expected to be 0.5% to 1% of the total installation for 2022, 2030, 2040, and 2050.

Note:

ENERGY STAR V. 4.0 went into effect January 5, 2022.

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base ENERGY STAR 

V. 4.0 Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (ft2)

1

42 42 40 40 40 40 40

65 65 54.4 54.4 54.4 54.4 54.4

Solar Uniform Energy Factor (SUEF)2 3.0 3.0 3.0 99.0 99.0 99.0 99.0

Average Life (y)

15 15 15 15 15 15 15

30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 7,710 7,710 6,430 6,430 6,430 6,430 6,430

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 10,650 10,650 8,060 8,060 8,060 8,060 8,060

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)3 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

Same as Reference Case 

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Solar Water Heaters

• Solar water heaters are not subject to federal energy conservation standards. The ENERGY STAR requirements are:

• Solar water heaters can be either active or passive. An active system uses an electric pump to circulate the heat transfer 

fluid; a passive system has no pump. Most solar water heaters in the U.S. are the active type.

• Solar water heaters are also characterized as open loop (also called "direct") or closed loop (also called "indirect"). An 

open-loop system circulates household (potable) water through the collector. A closed-loop system uses a heat transfer 

fluid (water or diluted antifreeze, for example) to collect heat and a heat exchanger to transfer the heat to household 

water. Direct systems were observed as the most common product type and subject of this analysis.

• In 2020, stakeholders from the solar thermal industry developed the Solar Uniform Energy Factor (SUEF) Specification 

for solar water heaters to align with the UEF metric used by DOE for other water heating technologies. 

• SUEF is also the metric used by the current ENERGY STAR Specification, and it replaced the Solar Energy Factor (SEF) 

metric. 

• Over two-third of the current solar water heater market is in the southern or western U.S. (including Hawaii). A 

collector area of 42 square feet (ft2) would be typical for these areas. Colder areas of the U.S. would require a larger 

collector (e.g., 65 ft2).

• Installed costs are higher for colder areas where larger collectors are required. Costs also vary widely depending on 

collector quality, type of system, and site-specific characteristics.

70

Applicable 

Products

Backup 

Fuel

ENERGY STAR 

Requirement Test Method

Whole-home 

solar units

Gas SUEF ≥ 3.0 ICC 900/SRCC 300-2020 Solar Thermal System Standard, 

Appendix A: Solar Uniform Energy Factor Procedure for 

Solar Water Heating Systems Electric SEF ≥ 1.8

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Solar Water Heaters

The shipments data below only represents ENERGY STAR-certified solar water heaters, as ENERGY STAR did not 

provide a market penetration rate. Solar water heaters have a small market share, with only 10,000 shipments at the 

peak in 2010 and 2011.

Source: ENERGY STAR

71

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Unit Shipments (thousands)

Shipments of ENERGY STAR-Certified Residential Solar Water 

Heaters
Final

Residential Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

72

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.0

High

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.0

Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF)10.81 0.89 0.81 0.92 0.87 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.97

Average Life (y) 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

1,410 1,180 430 580 580 610 610 580 610 580 610 580 610

1,760 1,410 1,020 1,360 1,350 1,430 1,430 1,360 1,430 1,360 1,430 1,360 1,430

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

2,590 1,760 920 1,070 950 1,090 1,090 1,070 1,090 1,070 1,090 1,070 1,090

3,820 3,350 2,860 3,160 3,140 3,230 3,220 3,160 3,230 3,160 3,230 3,160 3,230

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)2 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency

1. Analysis is based on an average of low, medium, and high draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of the market.

2. Annual maintenance includes deliming to minimize deposition of sediment in the heat exchanger, maintain operating efficiency and prolong product life. Also includes additional tasks, including 

inspection of the ignition device, gas valve, controls, thermostat, and venting.

Note:

Current standards went into effect April 16, 2015.

ENERGY STAR V. 4.0 went into effect January 5, 2022.

ENERGY STAR V. 5.0 will go into effect April 18, 2023.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α), shape (β), and delay (θ) parameters: (21.3, 1.76, 1).

Return to Table of Contents
Final

• The equations for Federal Standards and the voluntary ENERGY STAR requirements, if applicable, are:

• The ENERGY STAR levels require the use of condensing technology.

• All of the major water heater manufacturers now offer an instantaneous water heater model.

• The maintenance costs include cleaning the water inlet filter and the heat exchanger of mineral deposits and replacing 

the water valve approximately once every five years for all instantaneous water heaters.

• When replacing a storage water heater with an instantaneous water heater, there are significant additional costs to 

upsize the gas supply line to 3⁄4 inch from the typical 1⁄2 inch and change the venting.

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives are expected to drive further adoption of condensing products, thereby 

raising the typical efficiency, while increased R&D is expected to improve cost.

Volume 

Range

Draw 

Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

ENERGY 

STAR

<2 gal and 

>50,000 Btu/h

Very Small UEF=0.80 No models on the market 0.87

Low UEF=0.81 No models on the market 0.87

Medium UEF=0.81 0.81 0.87

High UEF=0.81 0.81 0.87

Residential Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

73

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters. 10 CFR 430.32(d).

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

Shipments for Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters have grown steadily with nearly no shipments in 2000 and a 

peak of about 850,000 units in 2021.

Source: CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

74

Return to Table of Contents

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022

Unit Shipments (thousands)

Residential Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters
Final

Residential Electric Instantaneous Water Heaters

75

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Representative Input Rate (kW) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Uniform Energy Factor (UEF)10.96 0.96 0.91 0.96 0.98 0.96 0.98 0.96 0.98 0.96 0.98

Average Life (y) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)290 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

1. Analysis is based on an average of low, medium, and very small draw pattern units, as this is most reflective of the market.

2. Annual maintenance costs not provided in CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis. Maintenance costs determined from the following calculation: GIWH - (GSWH - ESWH) - i.e., the 

difference factor in maintenance between gas and electric storage heat pumps applied to gas instantaneous heat pumps.

Note:

Current standards went into effect April 16, 2015.

Assume same lifetime as gas-fired instantaneous water heaters.

Same as Reference Case 

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Electric Instantaneous Water Heaters

• The Federal standards are:

• Electric instantaneous water heaters use electric resistance heating elements to heat water when there is a demand. 

Resistive heating elements are virtually 100% efficient, and the small storage capacities of these products means that 

they do not lose significant amounts of heat to the environment.

• The federal standards for these products require UEFs of 0.91 for very small, low, and medium draw pattern models 

and 0.92 for high draw pattern models.

• Most products currently on the market are in the very small draw pattern or the low draw pattern because electric 

resistance elements can only supply a limited quantity of heat on an instantaneous basis due to circuit amperage 

limitations.

• Many products are designed for point-of-use applications, such that the water heater only supplies water to one faucet 

or showerhead.

76

Volume 

Range

Draw 

Pattern Federal standard1 Federal minimum UEF for typical sizes

<2 gal

Very Small UEF=0.91 0.91

Low UEF=0.91 0.91

Medium UEF=0.91 No models on the market

High UEF=0.92 No models on the market

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Final

Residential Appliances

77

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Final

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Top)

78

1. Product Class 3 is used for this analysis (Refrigerator-freezers—automatic defrost with top-mounted freezer without through-the-door ice service and all-refrigerator—automatic defrost).

2. The volume shown here is the nominal total volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted volume is equal to the fresh food internal volume plus 

the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

3. The 2015 installed base energy consumption value is based on an adjusted volume of 21 cubic feet (ft3). Energy consumption values for the 2020 installed base and 2022 and beyond are based on an adjusted 

volume of 22 ft3, representing the current market.

4. Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics, ice maker), not replaceable components (e.g., water filters).

Note: 

Current standard went into effect in September 2014.

ENERGY STAR V. 5.1 went into effect in September 2014.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α), shape (β), and delay (θ) parameters: (10.26, 1.28, 5.13).

DATA1

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3)

2

19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Energy Consumption (kWh/y)3512 401 411 401 370 358 370 358 370 358 370 358

Average Life (y) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 670 750 740 750 760 760 750 760 750 760 750 760

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 670 750 740 750 760 760 750 760 750 760 750 760

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)410 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Higher typical efficiencies with same costs as reference case despite increased efficiency

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Side)

79

1. Product Class 7 is used for this analysis (Refrigerator-freezers—automatic defrost with side-mounted freezer with through-the-door ice service).

2. The volume shown here is the nominal total volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted volume is equal to the fresh food 

internal volume plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

3. Based on an adjusted volume of 32 ft3for all analysis years.

4. Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics, ice maker), not replaceable components (e.g., water filters).

Note: 

Current standard went into effect in September 2014.

ENERGY STAR V. 5.1 went into effect in September 2014.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α), shape (β), and delay (θ) parameters: (10.26, 1.28, 5.13).

DATA1

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3)

2

26 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Energy Consumption (kWh/y)3893 693 705 693 635 610 635 610 635 610 635 610

Average Life (y) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 1,400 1,130 1,130 1,130 1,160 1,470 1,130 1,470 1,130 1,470 1,130 1,470

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 1,400 1,130 1,130 1,130 1,160 1,470 1,130 1,470 1,130 1,470 1,130 1,470

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)430 20 20 20 20 30 20 30 20 30 20 30

Higher typical efficiencies with same costs as reference case despite increased efficiency

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Bottom)

80

1. Product Class 5 is used for this analysis (Refrigerator-freezers—automatic defrost with bottom-mounted freezer without through-the-door ice service).

2. The volume shown here is the nominal total volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted volume is equal to the fresh food 

internal volume plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

3. Based on an adjusted volume of 23 ft3for all analysis years.

4. Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics, ice maker), not replaceable components (e.g., water filters).

Note: 

Current standard went into effect in September 2014.

ENERGY STAR V. 5.1 went into effect in September 2014.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α), shape (β), and delay (θ) parameters: (10.26, 1.28, 5.13).

DATA1

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3)

2

19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Energy Consumption (kWh/y)3547 473 521 473 469 430 469 430 469 430 469 430

Average Life (y) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 1,190 920 920 920 920 930 920 930 920 930 920 930

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 1,190 920 920 920 920 930 920 930 920 930 920 930

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)430 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Higher typical efficiencies with same costs as reference case despite increased efficiency

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers

• Current Federal standards1:

— Compliance required beginning September 15, 2014

— Models divided into 32 product classes based on size (standard or compact), location of freezer (top, bottom, or 

side), type of defrost (automatic or manual), installation configuration (freestanding or built-in), and presence and 

configuration (through-the-door or inside cabinet) of automatic icemaker

— Limits on annual electricity consumption expressed as functions of adjusted volume2

— New product classes for built-in units

— Amount by which standards are tightened varies by product class

• ENERGY STAR criteria limit annual electricity consumption to 10% less than the Federal standard

• Energy efficiency opportunities for refrigerators include:

— More efficient compressor, including variable speed compressors

— Brushless direct current (DC) fan motor (also known as ECM motor)

— Variable defrost

— Larger condenser

— Dual evaporators

— Vacuum-insulated panels

— Refrigerants (Isobutane vs. R134a)

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives will push product sales towards the ENERGY STAR level, but the 

technologies used to meet ENERGY STAR are already well-known and prices will likely not rise as manufacturing 

volumes increase at higher efficiencies. 

81

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and Freezers. 10 CFR 430.32(a).

2Adjusted Volume (AV) = (Fresh Volume) + 1.76 × (Freezer Volume)

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers

82

Source: Appliance Magazine; DOE’s CCD, as of December 2017; ENERGY STAR Unit Shipment Data (2017-2020); Guidehouse analysis. Dashed lines are a 

combination of interpolated and available data.

Annual shipment volumes have rebounded from a sharp decline between 2006 and 2009, 

reaching approximately 11.4 million units in 2020.

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers

83

Sources: RF EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis; DOE’s CCD, as of December 2017; Guidehouse analysis. Lightly shaded bars indicate interpolated data.

Bottom-mount units have gained market share, surpassing top-mount units since 2016. 

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Freezers (Chest)

84

DATA1

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)

2

16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Energy Consumption (kWh/y)3360 297 297 297 287 297 287 297 287 297 287

Average Life (y) 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 510 590 680 680 690 680 690 680 690 680 690

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 510 590 680 680 690 680 690 680 690 680 690

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)410 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

1. Product Class 10 is used for this analysis (Chest freezers and all other freezers except compact freezers).

2. The volume shown here is the nominal volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted volume is equal to the fresh food internal 

volume (zero for freezers) plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

3. Based on an adjusted volume of 26 ft3, which is the average adjusted volume for units with a rounded total refrigerated volume of 15 ft3 per the DOE CCD.

4. Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan, electronics)

Note:

Current standard went into effect in September 2014.

ENERGY STAR excluded as no products at the typical capacity are ENERGY STAR compliant.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α), shape (β), and delay (θ) parameters: (21.96, 1.83, 1).

Same as Reference Case 

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Freezers (Upright)

85

DATA1

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

)

2

17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Energy Consumption (kWh/y)3615 446 497 493 448 441 448 441 448 441 448 441

Average Life (y) 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 690 880 830 830 830 830 830 830 830 830 830 830

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 690 880 830 830 830 830 830 830 830 830 830 830

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)410 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

1. Product Class 9 is used for this analysis (Upright freezers with automatic defrost).

2. The volume shown here is the nominal volume, not the adjusted volume, which is used to determine compliance with standards. The adjusted volume is equal to the fresh food internal 

volume (zero for freezers) plus the freezer internal volume times an adjustment factor, which depends on the product type.

3. Based on an adjusted volume of 31 ft3, which is the average adjusted volume for units with a rounded total refrigerated volume of 18 ft3 per the DOE CCD.

4. Maintenance costs include cost of repairing integral components (e.g., compressor, evaporator fan electronics).

Note:

Current standard went into effect in September 2014.

ENERGY STAR V. 5.1 went into effect September 2014.

Assume same lifetime as chest freezers.

Higher typical efficiencies with same costs as reference case despite increased efficiency

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Freezers

• Current Federal standards1:

— Compliance required beginning September 15, 2014

— Models divided into 10 product classes based on size (standard or compact), orientation (chest or upright), type of defrost 

(automatic or manual), installation configuration (freestanding or built-in), and presence of automatic icemaker

▪ Current analysis focuses on the two representative product classes analyzed in the recent rulemaking, chest and upright 

freezers.

— Limits on annual electricity consumption expressed as functions of adjusted volume2

▪ Chest freezers and all other freezers except compact freezers (PC 9): 9.88AV + 143.7

▪ Upright freezers with automatic defrost (PC 10): 12.43AV + 326.1

• ENERGY STAR criteria limit annual electricity consumption to 10% less than the Federal standard

— No ENERGY STAR compliant products at the typical capacity for chest freezers

• Energy efficiency opportunities for freezers include:

— Higher efficiency and/or variable-speed compressor systems

— Larger heat exchangers

— Permanent-magnet fan motor systems (vs. shaded pole motor (SPM) and PSC fan motors)

— Demand defrost systems

— Vacuum-insulated panels

— Thicker insulation (though at a loss of consumer utility)

— Refrigerants (Isobutane vs. R134a)

— Variable anti-sweat heating

— Use of forced convection condenser (for upright freezers)

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives will push product sales of upright freezers towards the ENERGY STAR level, but the

technologies used to meet ENERGY STAR are already well-known and prices will likely not rise as manufacturing volumes increase at 

higher efficiencies. Unlikely to occur for chest freezers due to such a low existing market penetration of ENERGY STAR products.

86

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and Freezers. 10 CFR 430.32(a).

2Adjusted Volume (AV) = (Fresh Volume) + 1.76 × (Freezer Volume). 

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Freezers

87

Shipment volumes held steady between 2007 to 2016 at about 2 million units per year. 

Shipments jumped to 3 million units in 2020. Chest freezers represent about 60% of the market.

Return to Table of Contents

Sources: Appliance Magazine from 2000 to 2016; ENERGY STAR from 2017 to 2021

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Unit Shipments (millions)

Residential Freezer Shipments

Chest Freezers

Upright Freezers

Total Freezers
Final

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops

88

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Integrated Annual Energy Consumption 

(kBtu/y)1 1,061 914 914 730 914 730 914 730 914 730

Cooking Efficiency (%) 40 45 45 52 45 52 45 52 45 52

Average Life (y) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)2290 310 310 330 310 330 310 330 310 330

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2420 460 460 480 460 480 460 480 460 480

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)3- - - - - - - - - -

Same as Reference Case 

Return to Table of Contents

1. Although there is no performance standard in effect, the test procedure metric has changed from Cooking Efficiency (%) to Integrated Annual Energy Consumption (IAEC) (kBtu/h). The Consumer 

Cooking Products EERE 2020 notice of proposed determination (NOPD) used for 2020 and beyond in this analysis also determined IAEC using a different test procedure than the Consumer Cooking 

Products EERE 2016 SNOPR.

2. Equipment and installed costs are for cooktops only (not combined range units).

3. Annual maintenance costs are negligible.

Note:

The range for typical capacity represents the span of typical values.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α) and shape (β) parameters: (14.56, 5.73).
Final

Residential Natural Gas Ovens

89

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Typical Cavity Volume (ft3)

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Integrated Annual Energy Consumption 

(kBtu/y)1 2,038 1,960 1,960 1,831 1,960 1,831 1,960 1,831 1,960 1,831

Cooking Efficiency (%) 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.3 6.9 7.3 6.9 7.3 6.9 7.3

Average Life (y) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)2740 770 770 810 770 810 770 810 770 810

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2870 920 920 950 920 950 920 950 920 950

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)3- - - - - - - - - -

Same as Reference Case 

Return to Table of Contents

1. Although there is no performance standard in effect, the test procedure metric has changed from Cooking Efficiency (%) to IAEC (kBtu/y). The 2015 IAEC value is reflective of freestanding 

standard gas ovens, which was previously determined to be the most representative product class. IAEC for 2020 and beyond is reflective of freestanding self-clean gas ovens, which is the 

product class that makes up the majority of historical and projected gas oven shipments.

2. Equipment and installed costs are for ovens only (not combined ranges). Costs are reflective of freestanding self-clean oven units with single oven component, which represent the majority of 

the market.

3. Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note:

Ranges represent the span of typical values for a given parameter.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α) and shape (β) parameters: (14.56, 5.73).
Final

Residential Natural Gas Ranges

90

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity of Cooktop Component 

(kBtu/h) 

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Typical Capacity of Oven Component 

(kBtu/h) 

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Typical Cavity Volume of Oven 

Component (ft3)

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Integrated Annual Energy Consumption 

(kBtu/y)1 3,099 2,874 2,874 2,561 2,874 2,561 2,874 2,561 2,874 2,561

Average Life (y) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 2750 770 770 850 770 850 770 850 770 850

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2900 920 920 1,000 920 1,000 920 1,000 920 1,000

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)3- - - - - - - - - -

Same as Reference Case 

1. IAEC of a natural gas range is calculated as the sum of the IAEC for a natural gas cooktop and natural gas oven. IAEC of the oven component is reflective of freestanding self-clean gas ovens, 

which represent the majority of the market. The 2015 IAEC value of the oven component is reflective of freestanding standard gas ovens, which was previously determined to be the most 

representative product class.

2. Retail and installed cost are reflective of a typical unit with standard 30-inch width and 4 to 5 cooking top heating elements. Based on data from DOE rulemakings, Gordian’s RSMeans Data –

Building Construction Costs 2023, and distributors, total installed cost is estimated to be around $150 more than retail equipment cost.

3. Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note:

Ranges represent the span of typical values for a given parameter.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α) and shape (β) parameters: (14.56, 5.73).

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops, Ovens, and Ranges

91

Return to Table of Contents

• DOE analyzes cooktops and ovens separately, although they are often sold together in a single unit that combines both a 

cooktop and an oven into a product referred to as a range. 

• Since January 1, 1990, gas cooking products with an electrical supply cord have been required to not be equipped with a 

constant burning pilot light. This requirement extended to gas cooking products without an electrical supply cord, as of April 

9, 2012.

• DOE published a final rule in 20091in which it determined that no standard for cooking efficiency would be cost-justified.

• DOE initiated a standards rulemaking in 2014 to consider amended standards for cooking products, including gas cooktops 

and ovens2.

• On September 2, 2016, DOE proposed performance-based standards for gas cooktops and ovens that would take effect in 2020, 

if adopted.

• DOE established the new IAEC metric, in kBtu/y, to replace cooking efficiency (%).

• On December 14, 2020, DOE initially determined that amended energy conservation standards for consumer conventional 

cooking products would not be economically justified and would not result in significant conservation of energy3. 

• On February 2, 2023, DOE proposed new and amended energy conservation standards for consumer conventional cooking 

products4.

• The IAEC of a range is calculated as the sum of the IAECs for cooktops and ovens. However, retail and installation costs for a 

range are similar to the cost of an oven.

1Energy Conservation Standards for Certain Consumer Products (Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Microwave Ovens, and Electric and Gas Kitchen Ranges and Ovens) and for Certain 

Commercial and Industrial Equipment (Commercial Clothes Washers); Final Rule. 74 FR 16040.

2Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products; Supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking (SNOPR). 81 FR 60784.

3Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Conventional Cooking Products; Notice of proposed determination (NOPD). 85 FR 80982.

4Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Conventional Cooking Products; SNOPR. 88 FR 6818.
Final

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops, Ovens, and Ranges

92

Shipments have been rising since 2012. In 2020, gas range shipments surpassed the peak 

reached in 2005.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Units (millions)

Natural Gas Cooktops, Ovens, and Ranges

Ranges, Gas

Cooktops, Gas

Ovens, Gas

Return to Table of Contents

Source: Appliance Magazine and Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2022 SNOPR
Final

Residential Electric Cooktops

93

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (W) 

1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700

Integrated Annual Energy Consumption 

(kWh/y)1 155 155 155 119 155 119 155 119 155 119

Average Life (y) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)2470 470 470 810 470 810 470 810 470 810

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2620 620 620 1,230 620 1,230 620 1,230 620 1,230

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)3- - - - - - - - - -

Same as Reference Case 

1. Although there is no performance standard in effect, the test procedure metric has changed from Cooking Efficiency (%) to IAEC (kBtu/y). IAEC was determined using DOE rulemaking data for 

the most representative product class, electric smooth element cooking tops, which covers cooking tops with electric resistance heating elements and cooking tops with induction heating elements.

2. Equipment and installed costs are for cooktops only (not combined range units). Costs were determined using DOE rulemaking data for the most representative product class, electric smooth 

cooking tops, which includes cooking tops with electric resistance heating elements and cooking tops with induction heating elements. A high-end unit with induction technology is expected to 

have a greater retail equipment cost and greater installation cost in order to implement this technology.

3. Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note:

The range for typical capacity represents the span of typical values.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α) and shape (β) parameters: (16.88, 6.99).

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Electric Ovens

94

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (W) 

2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000

3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400

Typical Cavity Volume (ft3

)

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Integrated Annual Energy Consumption 

(kWh/y)1 355 355 355 278 355 278 355 278 355 278

Average Life (y) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)2630 630 630 730 630 730 630 730 630 730

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2770 770 770 870 770 870 770 870 770 870

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)3- - - - - - - - - -

Same as Reference Case 

1. Although there is no performance standard in effect, the test procedure metric has changed from Cooking Efficiency (%) to IAEC (kBtu/y). IAEC was determined using DOE rulemaking data 

for freestanding electric self-clean ovens, which represent the majority of the market.

2. Equipment and installed costs are for ovens only (not combined ranges). Costs are reflective of freestanding self-clean oven units with single oven component, which represent the majority of 

the market.

3. Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note:

Ranges represent the span of typical values for a given parameter.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α) and shape (β) parameters: (16.88, 6.99).

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Electric Ranges

95

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity of Cooktop Component 

(W) 

1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700

Typical Capacity of Oven Component 

(W) 

2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000

3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400

Typical Cavity Volume of Oven 

Component (ft3)

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Integrated Annual Energy Consumption 

(kWh/y)1 510 510 510 397 510 397 510 397 510 397

Average Life (y) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 2630 630 630 900 630 900 630 900 630 900

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2770 770 770 1,050 770 1,050 770 1,050 770 1,050

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)3- - - - - - - - - -

Same as Reference Case 

1. IAEC of an electric range is calculated as the sum of the IAEC for an electric cooktop and an electric oven. IAEC of the electric cooktop component was determined using DOE rulemaking data for the most 

representative product class, electric smooth element cooking tops, which covers cooking tops with electric resistance heating elements and cooking tops with induction heating elements. IAEC of the 

electric oven component was determined using DOE rulemaking data for freestanding electric self-clean ovens, which represent the majority of the market.

2. Retail and installed cost are reflective of standard units that are 30-inch wide and have 4 to 5 cooking top heating elements. Based on data from DOE rulemakings, Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building 

Construction Costs 2023, and distributors, total installed cost is estimated to be around $140 more than retail equipment cost for a typical unit, and $150 more than retail equipment cost for a high-end unit. A 

high-end unit with an induction cooking top component is expected to have a greater retail equipment cost and greater installation cost in order to implement this technology.

3. Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note:

Ranges represent the span of typical values for a given parameter.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α) and shape (β) parameters: (16.88, 6.99).

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Electric Cooktops, Ovens, and Ranges

96

Return to Table of Contents

• DOE analyzes cooktops and ovens separately, although they are often sold together in a single unit that combines both 

a cooktop and an oven into a product referred to as a range.

• DOE initiated a standards rulemaking in 2014 to consider amended standards for cooking products, including electric 

cooktops and ovens1.

• On September 2, 2016, DOE proposed performance-based standards for electric cooktops and ovens that would take 

effect in 2020 if adopted.

• DOE established the new IAEC metric, in kWh/y, to replace cooking efficiency (%).

• On December 14, 2020, DOE initially determined that amended energy conservation standards for consumer 

conventional cooking products would not be economically justified and would not result in a significant conservation 

of energy2.

• On February 2, 2023, DOE proposed new and amended energy conservation standards for consumer conventional 

cooking products3.

• The IAEC of a range is calculated as the sum of the IAECs for cooktops and ovens. However, retail and installation 

costs for a range are similar to the cost of an oven.

1Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products; Supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking (SNOPR). 81 FR 60784.

2Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Conventional Cooking Products; Notice of proposed determination (NOPD). 85 FR 80982.

3Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Conventional Cooking Products; SNOPR. 88 FR 6818.
Final

Residential Electric Cooktops, Ovens, and Ranges

97

Source: Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2022 SNOPR

Shipments of electric cooking products reached a peak in 2006. Shipments of ranges and ovens 

have been rising again since 2012. In 2018, electric range shipments surpassed the peak reached 

in 2006.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Units (millions)

Electric Cooktops, Ovens, and Ranges Shipments

Ranges, Electric

Ovens, Electric

Cooktops, Electric

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Clothes Dryers (Electric)

98

DATA 

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 1.11

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3) 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 4.5 7.4 4.5 7.4 4.5 7.4 4.5

Combined Energy Factor, D1 

(lb/kWh)2 3.59 3.73 3.73 3.73 NA 3.93 3.73 3.93 3.73 3.93 3.73 3.93

Combined Energy Factor, D2 

(lb/kWh)2 3.59 3.93 3.73 3.93 3.93 11.00 5.34 11.00 6.48 11.00 7.38 11.00

Average Life (y) 

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 580 580 580 580 580 980 580 980 580 980 580 980

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 710 710 710 710 710 1,110 710 1,110 710 1,110 710 1,110

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)3- - - - - - - - - - - -

1. ENERGY STAR V. 1.1 applies to vented and ventless standard electric clothes dryers.

2. The efficiency metric changed from EF to combined energy factor (CEF) in 2015. The 2015 Installed Base CEF data accounts for units tested to appendix D1 and appendix D2, because data 

specific to each appendix is not available for that year.

3. Maintenance costs are negligible. DOE estimated that on average 2.7 percent of electric and 3.3 percent of gas residential clothes dryers are repaired each year. (EERE 2014)

Note:

DOE test procedures for consumer clothes dryers appear at title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations part 430, subpart B, appendix D1 and appendix D2. The second test method, appendix D2, 

was finalized in a final rule published by DOE on August 14, 2013. For current standard testing, units must be tested according to either the appendix D1 or the appendix D2 test method. ENERGY 

STAR V. 1.1 requires certified units to be tested according to the appendix D2 test method. The appendix D1 and appendix D2 test methods determine CEF differently.

The current standard went into effect in January 2015.

ENERGY STAR V. 1.1 went into effect in May 2017.

The range for average life represents the span of typical values.

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiency product with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency.
Final

Residential Clothes Dryers (Gas)

99

DATA 

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 1.11

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3

) 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4

Combined Energy Factor, D1 

(lb/kWh)2 3.18 3.30 3.30 3.30 NA 3.48 3.30 3.48 3.30 3.48 3.30 3.48

Combined Energy Factor, D2 

(lb/kWh)2 3.18 3.48 3.30 3.48 3.48 3.50 3.48 3.50 3.48 3.50 3.48 3.50

Average Life (y) 

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 660 670 660 670 670 670 670 670 670 670 670 670

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 860 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)3- - - - - - - - - - - -

Same as Reference Case

1. ENERGY STAR V. 1.1 applies to vented and ventless standard electric clothes dryers.

2. The efficiency metric changed from EF to CEF in 2015. The 2015 Installed Base CEF data accounts for units tested to appendix D1 and appendix D2, because data specific to each appendix is not 

available for that year.

3. Maintenance costs are negligible. DOE estimated that on average 2.7 percent of electric and 3.3 percent of gas residential clothes dryers are repaired each year. (EERE 2014)

Note:

DOE test procedures for consumer clothes dryers appear at title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations part 430, subpart B, appendix D1 and appendix D2. The second test method, appendix D2, 

was finalized in a final rule published by DOE on August 14, 2013. For current standard testing, units must be tested according to either the appendix D1 or the appendix D2 test method. ENERGY 

STAR V. 1.1 requires certified units to be tested according to the appendix D2 test method. The appendix D1 and appendix D2 test methods determine CEF differently.

The current standard went into effect in January 2015.

ENERGY STAR V. 1.1 went into effect in May 2017.

The range for average life represents the span of typical values.

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Clothes Dryers

• Current standards1in effect since 2015:

— For standard-size electric units : CEF ≥ 3.73 pound per kilowatt hours (lb/kWh)

— For gas units: CEF ≥ 2.30 lb/kWh

— Units may be tested according to the test method in appendix D1 or appendix D2, which was finalized in 2013.

• The main differences between appendix D1 and appendix D2 are:

— Appendix D2 includes test methods that more accurately measure the effects of automatic cycle termination and that may result in

differences in the total measured energy consumption of the test cycle as compared to the test methods in appendix D1. 

— Appendix D2 contains instructions for the testing of timer dryers, which include a lower final moisture content (FMC) of the test 

load as compared to the version of appendix D1 used for the 2011 rulemaking analysis.

• Efficiency improvement technologies for clothes dryers include:

— Multi-step or modulating heat

— Higher efficiency drum motors

— Inlet air pre-heat

— Better control systems for cycle termination

— Heat pump (for electric clothes dryers) 

• EPA developed ENERGY STAR V. 1.1, which became effective in 2017 and requires units to be tested according to the test method in

appendix D2.

• Standard-size heat pump clothes dryers with CEF values up to 11.0 are currently available in the U.S. market. High initial cost has 

limited market penetration, but some utilities are offering rebates to support market penetration. 

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in market incentives, the residential electric clothes dryers market will see an increase in adoption of 

heat pump dryers that improve the typical efficiency products.

100

1Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Clothes Dryers. 10 CFR 430.32(h).

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Clothes Dryers

101

Shipment volumes have been on the rise since 2012. Gas dryers continue to account for about 

one-fifth of the market.

Return to Table of Contents

Source: Consumer Clothes Dryers EERE 2022 NOPR
Final

Residential Clothes Washers (Front)

102

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 8.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3) 3.7 4.1 3.4 4.5 4.5 5.0 4.5 5.0 4.5 5.0 4.5 5.0

Integrated Modified Energy Factor 

(ft3/kWh/cycle)1 2.16 2.76 1.84 2.76 2.76 3.10 2.76 3.10 2.76 3.10 2.76 3.10

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3)

2 4.7 3.2 4.7 3.2 3.2 2.7 3.2 2.7 3.2 2.7 3.2 2.7

Average Life (y)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Water Consumption (gal/cycle) 17 14 16 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14

Hot Water Energy (kWh/cycle) 0.21 0.17 0.36 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.13

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) 0.17 0.14 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.17 0.12 0.17 0.12 0.17 0.12 0.17

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle) 1.31 1.24 1.34 1.17 1.17 1.56 1.17 1.56 1.17 1.56 1.17 1.56

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 735 1,000 705 930 930 950 930 950 930 950 930 950

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 915 1,175 880 1,130 1,130 1,150 1,130 1,150 1,130 1,150 1,130 1,150

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

1. The efficiency metric changed from Modified Energy Factor to Integrated Modified Energy Factor (IMEF) in 2015.

2. The efficiency metric changed from Water Factor to Integrated Water Factor (IWF) in 2015. 

Note:

The current standard went into effect in January 2018.

ENERGY STAR V. 8.1 went into effect in February 2018.

The range for average life represents the span of typical values.

Same as Reference Case 

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Clothes Washers (Top)

103

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 8.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3) 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 4.4 5.5 3.5 5.5 3.5 5.5 3.5 5.5

Integrated Modified Energy Factor 

(ft3/kWh/cycle)1 1.14 1.57 1.57 1.57 2.06 2.76 1.57 2.76 1.57 2.76 1.57 2.76

Integrated Water Factor 

(gal/cycle/ft3)

2 9.2 6.5 6.5 6.5 4.3 3.2 6.5 3.2 6.5 3.2 6.5 3.2

Average Life (y)

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Water Consumption (gal/cycle) 30 22 23 23 19 18 23 18 23 18 23 18

Hot Water Energy (kWh/cycle) 0.90 0.39 0.41 0.41 0.38 0.24 0.41 0.24 0.41 0.24 0.41 0.24

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle) 0.25 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.13

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle) 1.73 1.63 1.68 1.68 1.64 1.61 1.68 1.61 1.68 1.61 1.68 1.61

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 590 590 520 520 640 725 520 725 520 725 520 725

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 765 765 715 715 840 920 715 920 715 920 715 920

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

1. The efficiency metric changed from Modified Energy Factor to IMEF in 2015.

2. The efficiency metric changed from Water Factor to IWF in 2015. 

Note:

The current standard went into effect in January 2018.

ENERGY STAR V. 8.1 went into effect in February 2018.

The range for average life represents the span of typical values.

Same as Reference Case 

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Clothes Washers

• The analysis treats front- and top-loading models separately due to their different energy use characteristics.

• Federal standards1for standard-capacity clothes washers (≥ 1.6 ft3):

• In 2020, about 40% of top-loading models and almost all front-loading models achieved the ENERGY STAR level.

• Energy efficiency improvement technologies for clothes washers include:

— Higher efficiency motors and higher spin speeds

— Better load sensing for adaptive water fill control

— Reduced water temperature and quantity, while providing equivalent cleaning and rinsing performance

• Maintenance costs include replacement or repair of the drain pump, control board, motor, rubber gaskets, or control 

panel knobs.

• The products on the market with the highest IMEF have significantly larger capacity and therefore use more energy 

per cycle than typical, smaller capacity products but still perform more efficiently on a per volume basis.

104

Integrated Modified Energy Factor Integrated Water Factor

Top-Loading Front-Loading Top-Loading Front-Loading

Current DOE Standard

(effective 1/1/2018) ≥ 1.57 ≥ 1.84 ≤ 6.5 ≤ 4.7

Current ENERGY STAR V. 8.1

(effective 4/22/2021) ≥ 2.06 ≥ 2.76 ≤ 4.3 ≤ 3.2

1Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Clothes Washers. 10 CFR 430.32(g).

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Clothes Washers

105

Shipments have been on the rise since 2012 and reached a peak of about 10 million in 2020. 

Since 2012, top-loading and front-loading units represent approximately 75% and 25% of 

shipments, respectively.

Return to Table of Contents

Source: AHAM Shipment Data; RCW EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis
Final

Residential Dishwashers

106

DATA

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 6.0

High

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 7.0

Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/y) 295 270 307 270 270 225 240 240 225 240 225 240 225

Water Consumption (gal/cycle) 4.25 3.50 5.00 3.50 3.50 2.40 3.20 3.20 2.40 3.20 2.40 3.20 2.40

Water Heating Energy Use 

(kWh/y)1 154 125 176 123 123 84 112 123 84 123 84 123 84

Average Life (y) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 440 380 310 340 340 500 430 340 500 340 500 340 500

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 840 570 490 520 520 690 610 520 690 520 690 520 690

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)2- - - - - - - - - - - -

1. Refers to that portion of "Typical Annual Energy Use" that is the energy used to heat water in a separate water heater before it enters the dishwasher. The energy used to heat water inside 

the dishwasher cannot be disaggregated from the total.

2. Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note:

All values in table reflect 215 cycles/year according to the current test procedure at 10 CFR 430 Appendix C1.

The current standard went into effect in May 2013.

ENERGY STAR V. 6.0 went into effect in January 2016.

ENERGY STAR V. 7.0 will go into effect in July 2023.

Average life is determined using a Weibull distribution characterized by the following scale (α), shape (β), and delay (θ) parameters: (15.9, 1.8, 1).

Return to Table of Contents

Same as Reference Case 
Final

Residential Dishwashers

• Performance criteria for standard-capacity dishwashers (assumes 215 cycles/year):

— Federal Standards:

▪ May 30, 2013: ≤ 307 kWh/y, ≤ 5.0 gal/cycle (DOE Direct Final Rule, published May 2012)

— ENERGY STAR Criteria:

▪ Jan. 29, 2016: ≤ 270 kWh/y (5% allowance for connected), ≤ 3.5 gal/cycle (V. 6.0)

▪ July 19, 2023: ≤ 240 kWh/y, ≤ 3.2 gal/cycle (V. 7.0, effective August 2023)

• ENERGY STAR has maintained a very high market share for several years (93% in 2021), so sales-weighted average efficiency has tracked 

ENERGY STAR levels.

— Due to the historically high market penetration of ENERGY STAR products, it is expected that manufacturers will make the necessary 

adjustments so ENERGY STAR V. 7.0 levels will be typical in future projections.

• Test procedures:

— Accounts for motor, dryer, booster heater (if present), and hot water from separate water heater, as well as standby and off-mode energy.

— ENERGY STAR established a cleaning performance test method. While cleaning performance reporting is currently optional, V. 7.0 requires a 

cleaning index of 65 or higher for ENERGY STAR certification.

— In January 2023, DOE established a test procedure at Appendix C2, which would go into effect at the time of any amended energy 

conservation standards. Appendix C2 establishes a minimum cleaning index threshold of 70 as a condition for a valid test cycle. The cleaning 

index threshold of 70 established by DOE is equivalent to the cleaning index threshold of 65 specified in ENERGY STAR V. 7.0.

• Efficiency improvement technologies for dishwashers include:

— Better soil sensing 

— Control strategies

— Water distribution (small pipes, fine filter, small sump, multiple spray arms, alternating water use) and controls (flow meter, temperature 

sensor)

— Inline water heater (to minimize sump volume)

— Separate drain pump, high-efficiency, variable-speed circulation pump motor

— Condensation drying (rather than power dry)

107

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Dishwashers

108

Shipments increased steadily from the early 1990s until the 2008-2009 recession. Shipments 

have resumed similar growth since then. 

Return to Table of Contents

Source: DW EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021

Unit Shipments (millions)

Residential Dishwashers Shipments
Final

Commercial Space Heating and Cooling

109

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces

110

Return to Table of Contents

1. In 2023, the new Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Warm Air Furnaces (CWAF) took effect. These projections reflect the 2023 minimum thermal efficiency requirement for gas-fired furnaces, 

81%.

2. When this analysis was previously conducted in EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018), a typical input capacity of 400 kBtu/h was listed. An updated typical input capacity value of 250 kBtu/h was 

determined through an evaluation of the units in the DOE CCD as of August 2022. CWAF EERE 2015 also listed a representative input capacity of 250 kBtu/h.

3. DOE's efficiency metric for commercial furnaces accounts only for flue losses, not jacket losses.

Note:

The previous standard went into effect in January 1994. The current standard went into effect in January 2023.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 202312030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base 

Installed 

Base 

Current 

Standard Typical High New Standard Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h)2400 400 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

Thermal Efficiency (%)380 80 80 81 81 81 81 95 81 95

Typical Output Capacity (kBtu/h) 320 320 200 203 203 203 203 238 203 238

Average Life (y) 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 1,230 1,230 1,230 1,260 1,260 1,260 1,260 3,340 1,260 3,340

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2,540 2,540 2,540 2,580 2,580 2,580 2,580 5,230 2,580 5,230

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 6 6 10 10 10 10 10 21 10 21

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 210 200 210

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

High thermal efficiency increase is possible with increased costs.
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces

• Until 2022, the Federal standard required minimum 80% thermal efficiency. This metric, more commonly called 

“combustion efficiency” in other contexts, accounts only for flue losses, not jacket losses.

— The Federal standard applied to all units manufactured on or after January 1, 1994, with maximum rated heat 

input ≥ 225,000 Btu per hour.

— On January 1, 2023, the minimum Federal standard increased to 81% thermal efficiency.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a commercial building code in many states, stipulates that furnaces that are 

not within the conditioned space shall not have jacket losses exceeding 0.75% of the input rating.

• Commercial furnaces are typically non-condensing with thermal efficiencies ranging from 80% to 81%. Condensing 

commercial furnaces, which can achieve up to 95% thermal efficiency, were previously introduced to the market but 

are not currently available due to cost and reliability concerns. The highest thermal efficiency included in DOE’s CCD 

at this time is 81%. 

• Besides capacity, commercial units can differ from residential furnaces in terms of the control system (i.e., integration 

with a Building Management System, twinning, or other staging strategies). Commercial systems may also use a heat 

recovery system to pre-heat inlet air. 

• Advanced Case: Increased high efficiencies are feasible due to market incentives to re-introduce condensing 

commercial gas-fired furnaces through additional investment, research, and development. No significant changes 

otherwise.

111

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces

Annual shipments reached a peak of 235.9 thousand units in 2007. Following a decline in shipments after 2007, 

shipments increased to 188.1 thousand units in 2013. Shipment data after 2013 is not available.

Source: AHRI

112

Return to Table of Contents

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Unit Shipments (thousands)

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces
Final

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces

113

1. In 2023, the new Energy Conservation Standards for CWAF took effect. These projections reflect the 2023 minimum thermal efficiency requirement for oil-fired furnaces, 82%.

2. DOE's efficiency metric for commercial furnaces accounts only for flue losses, not jacket losses.

Note:

The previous standard went into effect in January 1994. The current standard went into effect in January 2023.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2012 2018 2022 202312030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base 

Installed 

Base 

Current 

Standard Typical High New Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 400 400 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

Thermal Efficiency (%)281 82 81 82 85 82 82 85 82 85 82 85

Typical Output Capacity (kBtu/h) 324 328 203 205 213 205 205 213 205 213 205 213

Average Life (y) 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 5,500 5,560 5,500 5,560 6,020 5,560 5,560 6,020 5,560 6,020 5,560 6,020

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 7,740 7,810 7,740 7,810 8,380 7,810 7,810 8,380 7,810 8,380 7,810 8,380

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 24 24 38 38 39 38 38 39 38 39 38 39

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 360 360 360 360 370 360 360 370 360 370 360 370

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Same as Reference Case
Final

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces

• Until 2022, the Federal standard required minimum 81% thermal efficiency. This metric, more commonly called 

“combustion efficiency” in other contexts, accounts only for flue losses, not jacket losses. 

— The Federal standard applied to all units manufactured on or after January 1, 1994, with maximum rated heat 

input ≥ 225,000 Btu per hour.

— On January 1, 2023, the minimum Federal standard increased to 82% thermal efficiency.

• ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which is used as a commercial building code in many states, stipulates that furnaces that are 

not within the conditioned space shall not have jacket losses exceeding 0.75% of the input rating.

• Commercial oil-fired furnaces have thermal efficiencies ranging from 81% to 85% and are non-condensing (i.e., not 

designed for condensation of flue gases).

• Besides capacity, commercial units can differ in terms of the control system (i.e., integration with a Building 

Management System, twinning, or other staging strategies). Commercial systems may also use a heat recovery system 

to pre-heat inlet air.

• The maintenance cost estimate assumes two cleanings per year.

114

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Final

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces

Annual shipments for commercial oil-fired furnaces have steadily decreased over time to 2,127 units in 2013. 

Shipment data after 2013 is not available.

Source: AHRI

115

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0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Unit Shipments

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces
Final

Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters

116

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1. Capacity is output.

2. Annual Maintenance Cost is negligible.

DATA 

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base: 

Small 

Installed 

Base: Large 

Installed 

Base: 

Small 

Installed 

Base: Large Small Large Small Large Small Large Small Large 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h)117 170 17 170 17 170 17 170 17 170 17 170

Efficiency (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Average Life (y) 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 1,000 6,320 1,000 6,320 500 4,630 500 4,630 500 4,630 500 4,630

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 1,240 7,470 1,240 7,470 660 5,470 660 5,470 660 5,470 660 5,470

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 73 44 73 44 39 32 39 32 39 32 39 32

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)2- - - - - - - - - - - -

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) - - - - - - - - - - - -

Same as Reference Case
Final

Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters

• This analysis examined standard suspended electric wall and ceiling unit heaters, which are more common in 

commercial settings than baseboard electric heaters that were considered for the residential analysis.

• Electric unit heaters range in capacity from 2 to 100 kW (7 to 340 kBtu/h), with 5 to 50 kW (17 to 170 kBtu/h) being the 

most typical units on the market.

• Electric resistance heaters are considered near 100% efficient because there is no heat loss through ducts or 

combustion.

• Installation time and costs are estimated to be minimal.

117

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Final

Commercial Electric Boilers

118

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1. Capacity is output.

2. Retail and installed costs for 2022 and forecasts for 2030 and beyond are based on Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building Construction Costs 2023. Maintenance costs are same as EIA Technology Forecast Updates 

(2018), updated to reflect 2022$. The costs shown are for one 165kW unit, which would equate to a steady load of approximately 550,000 Btu/h. Annual maintenance in a typical application would include draining 

the unit for removal of any accumulated scale or sludge buildup.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kW)1165 165 165 165 165 165

Efficiency (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (y) 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)211,620 11,590 9,790 9,790 9,790 9,790

Total Installed Cost (2022$)217,500 13,820 11,950 11,950 11,950 11,950

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 31 25 21 21 21 21

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)2170 130 130 130 130 130

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) - - - - - -

Same as Reference Case
Final

Commercial Electric Boilers

• There are currently no federal standards associated with electric boilers.

• The costs shown are for one 165kW unit, which would equate to a steady load of approximately 550,000 Btu/h.

• Service life is determined mainly by water quality. Water conditioning (e.g., filters, softeners, de-alkalizers, chemical 

feeders) may be necessary for a given application. 

• Annual maintenance in a typical application would include draining the unit for removal of any accumulated scale or 

sludge buildup.

• Minor end-use inefficiencies for electric boilers result from heat loss through the boiler (jacket losses).

119

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Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers

120

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1. The standard level shown here is for small (300 kBtu/h to 2500 kBtu/h) gas-fired hot water commercial packaged boilers, which are the most common type of boilers available on the market.

2. DOE's efficiency metric for most boiler types accounts for both flue and jacket losses; previously it did not. DOE continues to uses a combustion efficiency metric instead, for hot water boilers with heat input 

> 2,500,000 Btu/h.

3. Maintenance costs for 2018 and post-2018 are based on Commercial Packaged Boilers EERE 2020. The annualized maintenance costs estimated in the final rule differ for condensing vs. non-condensing 

boilers. Appendix 8E of the Commercial Packaged Boilers EERE 2020 TSD provides additional information on how the values are calculated.

Note: 

The previous standard went into effect in March 2012.

The current standard went into effect in January 2023.

In December 2016, DOE issued a final rule titled Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Packaged Boilers. This rule published in January 2020 with an effective date for 

January 2023.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base 

Installed 

Base 

Current 

Standard1 Typical High New Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

Thermal Efficiency (%)277 85 80 85 99 84 85 99 93 99 95 99 95 99 

Average Life (y) 30 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 15,530 25,910 19,150 25,910 42,670 24,320 25,910 42,670 37,860 42,670 38,950 42,670 38,950 42,670

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 24,600 38,330 30,470 38,330 55,230 35,650 38,330 55,230 50,410 55,230 51,510 55,230 51,510 55,230

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 40 56 48 56 70 53 56 70 68 70 68 70 68 70

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)3 1,710 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,140 2,100 2,100 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Higher typical efficiencies with corresponding cost increases
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers

• Commercial packaged gas-fired boilers are classified by:

— Heat input capacity

— Produce steam or hot water

— Draft type (natural draft or not) – for steam boilers

• The most common type of commercial gas-fired boilers are small gas-fired hot water boilers with 300,000-2,500,000 

Btu/h rated heat input.

• Similar technologies to those used in the residential gas-fired boilers market can be leveraged in the commercial arena. 

The higher efficiency units typically include electronic ignition, power burners, and improved heat exchangers. Some 

gas-fired boilers also condense water vapor from the flue gases to improve heating efficiency.

• DOE published a final rule for commercial packaged boilers in January 2020 that updated the efficiency ratings of gasfired commercial packaged boilers beginning January 2023.

• Advanced Case: Condensing gas-fired boilers are expected to dominate the market by 2030, with corresponding price 

increases.

121

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Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers

Shipments of commercial gas-fired boilers peaked in 2000 and have been steadily declining since 2010. Shipment data 

after 2013 is not available.

Source: Commercial Packaged Boilers EERE 2020

122

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Unit Shipments (thousands)

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers
Final

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers

123

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1. The standard level shown here is for small (300 kBtu/h to 2500 kBtu/h) oil-fired hot water commercial packaged boilers, which are the most common type of boilers available on the market.

2. DOE's efficiency metric for most boiler types accounts for both flue and jacket losses; previously it did not. DOE continues to uses a combustion efficiency metric instead, for hot water boilers with heat input 

> 2,500,000 Btu/h.

3. Maintenance costs for 2018 and post-2018 are based on Commercial Packaged Boilers EERE 2020. The annualized maintenance costs estimated in the final rule differ for condensing vs. non-condensing 

boilers. Appendix 8E of the Commercial Packaged Boilers EERE 2020 TSD provides additional information on how the values are calculated.

Note:

The previous standard went into effect in March 2012.

The current standard went into effect in January 2023.

In December 2016, DOE issued a final rule titled Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Packaged Boilers. This rule published in January 2020 with an effective date for 

January 2023.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base 

Installed 

Base 

Current 

Standard1 Typical High New Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 1,200 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

Thermal Efficiency (%)281 85 82 85 97 87 87 97 92 97 92 97 92 97

Average Life (y) 30 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 16,830 26,810 23,190 26,810 51,480 29,730 29,730 51,480 29,730 51,480 29,730 51,480 29,730 51,480

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 22,000 37,240 33,100 37,240 62,910 40,160 40,160 62,910 40,160 62,910 40,160 62,910 40,160 62,910

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 23 55 50 55 81 58 58 81 55 81 55 81 55 81

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)3 1,710 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,690

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 2 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3

Higher typical efficiencies with same costs as reference case despite increased efficiency
Final

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers

• Commercial packaged oil-fired boilers are classified by:

— Heat input capacity

— Produce steam or hot water

• The most common type of commercial oil-fired boilers are small hot water boilers with 300,000-2,500,000 Btu/h rated 

heat input.

• The higher efficiency units typically include improved heat exchangers, and multi-step or variable-output power 

burners.

• DOE published a final rule for commercial packaged boilers in January 2020 that updated the efficiency ratings of oilfired commercial packaged boilers beginning January 2023.

• Advanced Case: Increased adoption of condensing oil-fired boilers by 2030. However, due to low demand and a 

shrinking market, costs are expected to remain the same.

124

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Final

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers

Shipments of commercial oil-fired boilers peaked in 2001 and have been decreasing since then.

Source: Commercial Packaged Boilers EERE 2020

125

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Unit Shipments (thousands)

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers
Final

DATA

2012 2018 202222030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.1-2019 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)1

400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

Efficiency [full-load] (kW/ton) 0.66 0.53 0.56 0.52 0.45 0.48 0.42 0.45 0.41 0.44 0.40

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton) 0.61 0.37 0.50 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.28 0.29 0.26 0.28 0.25

COP [full-load] 5.4 6.6 6.3 6.8 7.8 7.3 8.4 7.8 8.6 8.0 8.8

COP [IPLV] 5.9 9.5 7.0 11.3 11.7 11.7 12.6 12.1 13.5 12.6 14.1

Average Life (y) 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$/ton) 380 500 480 500 680 590 760 660 780 690 810

Total Installed Cost (2022$/ton)

440 560 480 560 740 640 820 720 840 740 870

500 590 540 590 760 670 830 740 860 760 880

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 39 48 43 48 63 55 69 61 71 63 73

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/ton)

30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Commercial Centrifugal Chillers (Water-Cooled)

126

1. Capacity is output.

2. ASHRAE 90.1 data are for units larger than 400 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2019). Typical and high efficiency levels are determined based on the range of products 

currently available on the market.

Note: 

For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications), the seasonal performance (represented by the integrated part-load value (IPLV)) is more 

indicative of annual expected performance than the full-load performance; performance of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full-load, are well represented by the full-load 

efficiency value.

ASHRAE 90.1 went into effect in October 2019.

Ranges represent the span of typical values for a given parameter.

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with same costs as reference case despite increased efficiency
Final

Commercial Centrifugal Chillers (Water-Cooled)

• ASHRAE 90.1-2019 stipulates minimum efficiencies for centrifugal chillers separately from positive displacement water-cooled 

chillers. They are separated into 5 size categories, with categories divided at: 150, 300, 400, and 600 tons; ASHRAE 90.1-2019 

also distinguishes between whether the unit will be optimized for full-load (Path A) or part-load operation (Path B). Data here 

are for Path A; a Path B chiller may have slightly high full-load consumption in exchange for much lower part-load 

consumption. For example, for a 600-ton unit:

— Path A: ≥ 0.56 kW/ton full-load and ≥ 0.50 kW/ton IPLV 

— Path B: ≥ 0.585 kW/ton full-load and ≥ 38 kW/ton IPLV

• Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) recommendations, last updated in 2020, match ASHRAE 90.1-2019. 

• The highest efficiency centrifugal chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Variable speed drive (VSD) compressors

— Dedicated heat recovery (heat pump chiller)

— Magnetic bearing technology (oil-free operation)

— Greater heat exchanger surface areas; enhanced tube configurations (counterflow)

— Optimized fluid flow velocities

— High efficiency electric motors

— Improved turbomachinery design, resulting in higher compressor efficiency

— Better piping and valving, including electronic expansion valves

— Evaporative condenser for the heat rejection equipment

• Installed costs vary widely depending on equipment needed for installation (e.g., crane) and size of system. This is a mature

market with centrifugal chillers representing 75% of commercial chiller sales larger than 200 tons.

• Water-cooled chiller ratings do not include energy consumption of the cooling tower and therefore are not directly comparable 

to rating for air-cooled chillers. Water-cooled centrifugal chillers were selected for analysis due to a higher model share on the 

AHRI directory in comparison to air-cooled chillers.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology are expected to increase efficiency without 

substantially increasing costs.

127

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Final

DATA

2012 2018 20222 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed

Base

ASHRAE

90.1-2019 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)1

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

Efficiency [full-load] (kW/ton) 1.26 1.19 1.19 1.15 1.00 1.15 1.00 1.15 1.00 1.15 1.00

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton) 1.13 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.79

COP [full-load] 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5

COP [IPLV] 3.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5

Average Life (y) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$/ton)

725 820 820 820 1,030 820 1,030 820 1,030 820 1,030

600 730 730 730 880 730 880 730 880 730 880

Total Installed Cost (2022$/ton)

800 880 880 880 1,180 880 1,180 880 1,180 880 1,180

700 760 760 760 1,090 760 1,090 760 1,090 760 1,090

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 63 68 68 68 95 68 95 68 95 68 95

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/ton)

45 45 50 50 50 45 50 45 50 45 50

25 25 30 30 30 25 30 25 30 25 30

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Commercial Reciprocating Chillers (Air-Cooled Only)

128

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1. Capacity is output.

2. ASHRAE 90.1 data are for units larger than 150 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2019). Typical and high efficiency levels are determined based on the range of products 

currently available on the market.

Note: 

This analysis covers air-cooled chillers only.

For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications), the seasonal performance (represented by the IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected 

performance than the full-load performance; performance of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full-load, are well represented by the full-load efficiency value.

ASHRAE 90.1 went into effect in October 2019.

Ranges represent the span of typical values for a given parameter.

Same as Reference Case
Final

Commercial Reciprocating Chillers (Air-Cooled Only)

• Reciprocating chillers are most cost effective for small loads (30 to 150-ton range). However, reciprocating chiller 

market share continues to be supplanted by screw and scroll chillers. This trend has accelerated with the phase out of 

R-22, which was the refrigerant of choice for reciprocating products, which has in turn driven major manufacturers to 

replace their reciprocating product lines with scroll products (rather than redesign reciprocating products for new 

refrigerants). As a result, product options are very limited.

• Reciprocating chillers can be used in either air-cooled or water-cooled applications. Reciprocating chillers shown in the 

data are air-cooled. Air-cooled chillers are less efficient than the water-cooled models. Listed efficiencies include 

matched condensers and their associated energy use.

• ASHRAE 90.1-2019 stipulates minimum efficiencies for all air-cooled chillers together, including reciprocating chillers, 

while water-cooled chillers are separated by positive displacement (e.g., reciprocating) versus centrifugal models. Aircooled chiller efficiencies are further split by size for more and less than 150 tons. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 also 

distinguishes between whether the unit will be optimized for full-load (Path A) or part-load operation (Path B). Data 

here are for Path A; a Path B chiller may have slightly lower full-load efficiency in exchange for much higher part-load 

efficiency. For example, for a 100-ton unit:

— Path A: ≥ 10.1 EER full-load and ≥ 13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B: ≥ 9.7 EER full-load and ≥ 15.8 IPLV EER

• FEMP (2022) recommendations for air-cooled chillers are:

— Path A (<150 tons): ≥ 10.89 EER full-load and ≥ 13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B (<150 tons): ≥ 9.7 EER full-load and ≥ 16.86 IPLV EER (same as 90.1-2019)

• The highest efficiency reciprocating chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Multiple compressors for staged capacity control

— Improved heat-exchangers

129

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Final

Commercial Screw Chillers (Air-Cooled Only)

130

1. ASHRAE 90.1 data for units larger than 150 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2019).

Note:

For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications), the seasonal performance (represented by the IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected 

performance than the full-load performance; performance of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full-load, are well represented by the full-load efficiency value.

ASHRAE 90.1 went into effect in October 2019.

Ranges represent the span of typical values for a given parameter.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.1-20191 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Efficiency [full-load] (kW/ton) 1.26 1.18 1.19 1.15 0.92 1.11 0.91 0.99 0.86 0.93 0.77

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton) 1.13 0.84 0.86 0.81 0.55 0.77 0.53 0.65 0.49 0.61 0.43

COP [full-load] 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.8 3.2 3.9 3.6 4.1 3.8 4.6

COP [IPLV] 3.1 4.2 4.1 4.4 6.4 4.5 6.6 5.4 7.2 5.7 8.2

Average Life (y) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$/ton)

760 970 1,130 1,130 1,230 1,140 1,230 1,180 1,250 1,200 1,270

620 850 770 770 870 780 870 820 890 840 910

Total Installed Cost (2022$/ton)

910 1,150 1,250 1,250 1,350 1,260 1,350 1,300 1,370 1,320 1,390

850 940 820 820 920 830 920 870 940 890 960

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 73 87 86 86 95 87 95 90 96 92 98

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/ton)

50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Higher typical efficiencies with same costs as reference case despite increased efficiency
Final

Commercial Screw Chillers (Air-Cooled Only)

• Screw chillers are common in 150 to 500-ton capacities but are most cost effective for small (<300 tons) loads; screw 

chillers dominate the current market for small to mid-size chillers.

• Screw chillers can be used in either air-cooled or water-cooled applications. Screw chillers shown in the data are aircooled. Air-cooled chillers are less efficient than the water-cooled models. Listed efficiencies include matched 

condensers and their associated energy use.

• ASHRAE 90.1-2019 stipulates minimum efficiencies for all air-cooled chillers together, including screw chillers, while 

water-cooled chillers are separated by positive displacement (e.g., screw) versus centrifugal models. Air-cooled chiller 

efficiencies are further split by size for more and less than 150 tons. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 also distinguishes between 

whether the unit will be optimized for full-load (Path A) or part-load operation (Path B). Data here are for Path A; a 

Path B chiller may have slightly lower full-load efficiency in exchange for much higher part-load efficiency. For 

example, for a ≥ 150-ton unit:

— Path A: ≥ 10.1 EER full-load and ≥ 14.0 IPLV EER

— Path B: ≥ 9.7 EER full-load and ≥ 16.1 IPLV EER

• FEMP recommendations for air-cooled chillers (updated June 2020) are:

— Path A (≥ 150 tons): ≥ 10.7 EER full-load and ≥ 14.0 IPLV EER

— Path B (≥ 150 tons): ≥ 9.7 EER full-load and ≥ 16.4 IPLV EER

• The highest efficiency screw chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Variable speed compressors and/or multiple compressors

— Economizers

— Improved heat-exchangers

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology are expected to increase efficiency 

without substantially increasing costs. 

131

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Final

Commercial Scroll Chillers (Air-Cooled Only)

132

1. ASHRAE 90.1 data for units less than 150 tons and for full-load optimized applications (Path A in ASHRAE 90.1-2019).

Note:

For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications), the seasonal performance (represented by the IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected 

performance than the full-load performance; performance of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full-load, are well represented by the full-load efficiency value.

ASHRAE 90.1 went into effect in October 2019.

Ranges represent the span of typical values for a given parameter.

Return to Table of Contents

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.1-20191 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons)

50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140

Efficiency [full-load] (kW/ton) 1.23 1.16 1.19 1.15 1.07 1.08 1.03 1.04 0.99 0.99 0.94

Efficiency [IPLV] (kW/ton) 0.99 0.77 0.88 0.77 0.70 0.71 0.66 0.69 0.63 0.67 0.60

COP [full-load] 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7

COP [IPLV] 3.7 4.6 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.1 5.6 5.3 5.8

Average Life (y) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$/ton)

680 1,000 1,060 1,060 1,160 1,120 1,160 1,150 1,200 1,200 1,240

560 820 530 530 630 590 630 620 670 670 710

Total Installed Cost (2022$/ton)

970 1,210 1,170 1,170 1,270 1,230 1,270 1,260 1,310 1,310 1,350

850 970 860 860 960 920 960 950 1,000 1,000 1,040

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 76 91 85 85 93 90 93 92 96 96 100

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/ton)

60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Higher typical efficiencies with same costs as reference case despite increased efficiency
Final

Commercial Scroll Chillers (Air-Cooled Only)

• Scroll chillers range in size from ~20 tons to ~200 tons and can be used in either air-cooled or water-cooled 

applications. They are the most common type of chiller for small chiller plants. The scroll chillers shown in the data are 

air-cooled, which is most common. Air-cooled chillers are less efficient than the water-cooled models. Listed 

efficiencies include matched condensers and their associated energy use.

• ASHRAE 90.1-2019 stipulates minimum efficiencies for all air-cooled chillers together, including scroll chillers, while 

water-cooled chillers are separated by positive displacement (e.g., scroll) versus centrifugal models. Air-cooled chiller 

efficiencies are distinct for more and less than 150 tons. ASHRAE 90.1-2019 also distinguishes between whether the 

unit will be optimized for full-load (Path A) or part-load operation (Path B). Data here are for Path A; a Path B chiller 

may have slightly lower full-load efficiency in exchange for much higher part-load efficiency. For example, for a 100-

ton unit:

— Path A: ≥ 10.1 EER full-load and ≥ 13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B: ≥ 9.7 EER full-load and ≥ 15.8 IPLV EER

• FEMP recommendations for air-cooled chillers (updated June 2020) are:

— Path A (< 150 tons): ≥ 10.7 EER full-load and ≥ 13.7 IPLV EER

— Path B (< 150 tons): ≥ 9.7 EER full-load and ≥ 15.9 IPLV EER

• The highest efficiency scroll chillers incorporate some of the following:

— Multiple compressors for staged capacity control

— Improved heat-exchangers

— Variable speed compressor (or other modulation controls)

• With the phase out of R-22, manufacturers have replaced many of their small reciprocating chiller products with 

equivalent scroll products, making them a primary choice for small tonnage applications.

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology are expected to increase efficiency 

without substantially increasing costs. 

133

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Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Chillers (Water-Cooled, Direct-Fired Only)

134

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DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base: 

Absorption

Installed 

Base: 

EngineDriven

Installed 

Base: 

Absorption

Installed 

Base: 

EngineDriven

ASHRAE 

90.1-2019 

Absorption

CA Title 24 

– EngineDrivenAbsorption EngineDriven Absorption EngineDriven Absorption EngineDriven Absorption EngineDriven

Typical Capacity 

(tons)1

150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400 1,500 400

COP [full-load] 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.8

COP [IPLV] NA NA 1.6 2.6 1.0 2.0 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6 1.6 2.6

Average Life (y) 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25 23 25

Retail Equipment 

Cost (2022$/ton)

1,060 1,000 1,060 1,000 1,200 1,000 1,200 1,000 1,200 1,000 1,200 1,000 1,200 1,000

880 880 880 880 870 880 870 880 870 880 870 880 870 880

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/ton)

1,290 1,240 1,180 1,240 1,110 1,240 1,110 1,240 1,110 1,240 1,110 1,240 1,110 1,240

1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 850 1,000 850 1,000 850 1,000 850 1,000 850 1,000

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 95 93 91 93 82 93 82 93 82 93 82 93 82 93

Annual 

Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/ton)

40 60 40 60 40 60 40 60 40 60 40 60 40 60

20 40 20 40 20 40 20 40 20 40 20 40 20 40

Annual 

Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4

1. Capacity is output.

Note:

This analysis assumes a water-cooled chiller; both gas-fired chiller types (absorption and engine-driven) are shown. COP values for double-effect absorption chillers are shown.

For most chillers (including those in single-chiller applications and for peaking units in multi-chiller applications), the seasonal performance (represented by the IPLV) is more indicative of annual expected 

performance than the full-load performance; performance of baseload chillers in multi-chiller applications, which typically operate at full-load, are well represented by the full-load efficiency value.

ASHRAE 90.1 went into effect in October 2019.

CA Title 24 went into effect in January 2020.

Ranges represent the span of typical values for a given parameter.

Same as Reference Case
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Chillers (Water-Cooled, Direct-Fired Only)

• Gas-fired chillers are available as either air-cooled (~25-50 tons) or water-cooled (150+ tons). This analysis covers only 

water-cooled chillers of two varieties: absorption and engine-driven vapor compression (direct-fired only; indirect 

steam or hot water driven units are excluded).

• Direct gas firing provides high enough temperatures to operate double effect absorption chillers, which operate at a 

50-60% higher COP than single effect systems. Triple effect chillers, though not commercially available, can boost 

cooling COP 30-50% beyond double effect chillers. Some companies have worked on prototype direct-fired triple effect 

absorption chillers, but prohibitively high cost of advanced high heat/corrosion-resistant materials required for triple 

effect absorption chillers suggests that this technology will not likely have an impact on the market in the near-term.

• Gas-fired engine-driven chillers pair conventional vapor compression systems (typically screw or centrifugal 

compressors) with natural gas powered-reciprocating engines. They exhibit higher peak cooling COP than absorbers, 

and engine modulation results in better part-load performance. Future efficiency improvements for engine-driven 

chillers are not anticipated. Engine-driven chillers allow the opportunity to recover waste heat for useful purposes. 

• Maintenance costs for engine-driven chillers are higher than for other chillers because they include all the typical 

components of a vapor compression chiller in addition to an engine; the engine maintenance costs vary depending on 

the annual run hours of the unit. 

• Limited sales data suggest that the U.S. market for gas-fired chillers is very limited and is mostly for replacement 

units, not for new installations. Recent increases in electric chiller efficiency have narrowed the operating cost 

differential with gas chillers. Asia has the majority of the global gas-fired chiller market. 

• Gas-fired chiller installations are particularly valuable in locations where electric rates are high and gas prices are low 

(i.e., low spark spread), where digester or landfill gas sources are available, or where waste heat sources are available 

(e.g., an industrial process or microturbine CHP system) that could be used with a hybrid direct/indirect-fired 

absorption chiller to offset the use of natural gas. 

135

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Final

Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners

136

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DATA

2012 2018 202242023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.1

High New 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.0

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Output Capacity 

(kBtu/h) 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Part Load Efficiency (IEER)112.4 12.9 12.9 12.9 14.0 23.3 14.8 14.8 18.0 23.3 16.0 23.3 16.5 23.3 17.5 23.3

Efficiency (EER)210.6 11.5 11.5 11.5 12.2 12.8 12.2 12.2 12.7 12.8 12.6 12.8 12.6 12.8 12.7 12.8

Efficiency Conversion 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.1 6.8 4.3 4.3 5.3 6.8 4.7 6.8 4.8 6.8 5.1 6.8

Average Life (y) 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 7,760 8,280 8,280 8,280 9,090 12,210 9,490 9,490 10,340 12,210 9,590 12,210 9,590 12,210 9,590 12,210

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 10,350 11,870 11,870 11,870 13,020 17,600 13,560 13,560 14,970 17,600 13,720 17,600 13,720 17,600 13,720 17,600

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 115 132 132 132 145 196 151 151 166 196 152 196 152 196 152 196

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)3 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

1. Values shown are for air-cooled small commercial packaged air conditioners with either electric resistance heating or no heating within the same enclosure. DOE published a direct final rule for commercial 

packaged air conditioners and heat pumps in January 2016 with initial standards becoming effective in 2018 and additional standards becoming effective in 2023. As part of this rulemaking, DOE changed the 

regulated metric from EER to integrated energy efficiency ratio (IEER).

2. DOE investigated the relationship between IEER and EER. Because the relationship between IEER and EER is weak, this analysis estimates EER values based on the average of the values seen at a given IEER.

3. Examples of annual maintenance services include, check tensions, condition, and alignment of belts and adjust as necessary; lubricate shaft and motor bearings; replace air filters; clean coils, drain pan and 

piping, blowers, fan motors as required; check refrigerant pressure and compressor oil level; etc.

4. The 2022 typical efficiency is based on the average IEER from DOE’s CCD. The 2022 high efficiency is based on the most-efficient model in DOE’s CCD, but costs are estimated based on the most efficient unit 

analyzed in CUAC EERE 2016, which had an IEER of 21.5.

Note:

EER is the ratio of the cooling capacity (in Btu/h) to the power input (in watts) and provides a measure of the efficiency of equipment operating at full load (i.e., 100 percent cooling capacity) in high-ambienttemperature conditions (i.e., 95 °F). IEER is a single number part-load efficiency based on weighting of EER at various load capacities. Efficiency Conversion is the conversion of IEER from a [(Btu/h)/W] metric to 

a metric in the same units.

The previous standard went into effect in January 2018. The current standard went into effect in January 2023.

ENERGY STAR V. 3.1 went into effect in January 2018. ENERGY STAR V. 4.0 went into effect in January 2023.

Higher efficiencies with same costs as reference case despite increased efficiency
Final

Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners

• Air-Cooled Commercial Packaged Air Conditioners

• This analysis focused on small air-cooled commercial packaged rooftop air conditioners (90 kBtu/h or 7.5 tons), though 

there are also standards for many other types of commercial air conditioners.

• Amended standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes took effect in January 2018. More stringent standards in 

terms of IEER for all equipment classes took effect in January 2023. 

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more cost-effective variable 

speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs. 

137

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Cooling Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Heating Type

Federal Standard

Effective 1/1/2018 

Min. IEER

Federal Standard

Effective 1/1/2023 

Min. IEER

Small

( ≥ 65 and < 135)

Electric resistance 

or none

12.9 14.8

Any other type 12.7 14.6

Large

(≥ 135 and < 240)

Electric resistance 

or none

12.4 14.2

Any other type 12.2 14.0
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Drive Rooftop Air Conditioners

138

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DATA

201212018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (tons) 18 11 11 11 11 11

Heating COP 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

Cooling COP 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Average Life (y) 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton) 3,350 2,820 3,710 3,710 3,710 3,710

Total Installed Cost ($/ton) 3,820 3,290 4,110 4,110 4,110 4,110

Total Installed Cost ($/kBtu/h) 318 274 343 343 343 343

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 70 70 70 70 70 70

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 6 6 6 6 6 6

1. The 2012 typical capacity and cooling COP were estimated as a simple average between obsolete pre-2003 units and 2013 units, which first became available in 2010; this assumes that each vintage represents 

about half of the installed base.

Note: 

Only one product was available in 2012; the market has grown slightly in years since. Typical capacity and COP for 2018 and later are averages of units available as of 2017.

Same as Reference Case
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Drive Rooftop Air Conditioners

• There are only a few gas-fired engine-driven rooftop units currently available in the U.S. market. The first unit was 

introduced in 2010. It is an 11-ton packaged heat pump with dual scroll compressors, variable refrigerant flow, and a 

variable speed supply fan. Engine coolant heat recovery improves the heating mode COP. 

• There are currently no Federal requirements on gas-fired engine-driven rooftop air conditioners or heat pumps.

• Annual sales of the engine-driven rooftop heat pump are estimated at less than 5,000 units per year.

139

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Final

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.1

High New 

Standard

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.0

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Part Load Efficiency 

(IEER)1 12.0 11.3 12.2 14.3 12.8 20.3 14.1 15.3 20.3 14.4 20.3 15.3 20.3 15.3 20.3

EER 10.2 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.8 13.0 12.0 11.8 13.0 11.7 13.1 11.7 13.1 11.7 13.1

COP (Heating) 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.7

Average Life (y) 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$) 7,490 7,490 9,000 10,250 9,370 12,920 10,160 10,600 12,920 10,290 12,920 10,600 12,920 10,600 12,920

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$) 9,340 9,340 12,900 14,940 13,530 18,860 14,810 15,510 18,860 15,000 18,860 15,510 18,860 15,510 18,860

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 104 104 143 166 150 210 165 172 210 167 210 172 210 172 210

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$) 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps

140

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1. Values shown are for air-cooled small commercial packaged heat pumps with either electric resistance heating or no heating within the same enclosure. DOE published a direct final rule for commercial 

packaged air conditioners and heat pumps in January 2016 with initial standards becoming effective in 2018 and additional standards becoming effective in 2023. As part of this rulemaking, DOE changed the 

regulated metric from EER to IEER.

Note:

The previous standard went into effect in January 2018. The current standard went into effect in January 2023.

ENERGY STAR V. 3.1 went into effect in January 2018. ENERGY STAR V. 4.0 went into effect in January 2023.

Higher efficiencies with same costs as reference case despite increased efficiency
Final

Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps

• Air-Cooled Commercial Packaged Heat Pumps

• This analysis focused on small air-cooled commercial packaged rooftop heat pumps (90 kBtu/h or 7.5 tons), though 

there are also standards for many other types of commercial heat pumps.

• Amended standards in terms of IEER for all equipment classes took effect in 2018. More stringent standards in terms 

of IEER for all equipment classes took effect in 2023. 

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more cost-effective variable 

speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs. 

141

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Cooling Capacity (kBtu/h) Heating Type

Federal Standard

Effective 1/1/2018 

Min. IEER

Federal Standard

Effective 1/1/2023 

Min. IEER

Small

( ≥ 65 and < 135)

Electric resistance or 

none

12.2 14.1

Any other type 12.0 13.9

Large

(≥ 135 and < 240)

Electric resistance or 

none

11.6 13.5

Any other type 11.4 13.3
Final

1. COP values listed are assessed at a "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, DOE sets standards at a "water loop" test condition. The AHRI 

directory lists COP ratings at both sets of test conditions and is used to convert between them where necessary. 

2. EER values listed are assessed at a full-load "ground loop" test condition, which is representative of closed loop GSHP operating conditions. However, DOE sets standards at a full-load "water loop" test 

condition. The AHRI directory lists EER ratings at all sets of test conditions and is used to convert between them where necessary.

Note: 

Residential and commercial GSHPs are very similar - the main difference in data presented is the different capacity (3-ton vs. 4-ton) and slightly higher installation costs for commercial GSHP. DOE does not 

distinguish between residential and commercial units in its regulations.

Commercial Ground-Source Heat Pumps

142

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DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48

COP (Heating)1 3.1 3.7 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6

EER (Cooling)2 12.7 17.4 14.1 17.0 21.6 17.0 21.6 17.0 21.6 17.0 21.6

Average Life (y)

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 10,470 6,470 5,590 6,470 7,880 6,470 7,880 6,470 7,880 6,470 7,880

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

19,760 18,230 17,350 18,230 19,650 16,410 17,690 16,410 17,690 16,410 16,410

44,820 26,520 25,580 26,520 27,880 23,870 25,090 23,870 25,090 23,870 23,870

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 673 466 447 466 495 420 446 420 446 420 420

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Same efficiencies with lower costs than reference case despite same efficiency
Final

Commercial Ground-Source Heat Pumps

• The most common commercial ground-source heat pump systems are closed-loop in which water or anti-freeze solution is 

circulated through plastic pipes buried underground. Commercial water-to-air heat pumps (WAHPs) range in size from 1 ton 

or less to over 500 tons depending on whether a distributed or centralized architecture is used. Distributed systems are more

prevalent.

• Most geothermal WAHPs are rated for capacity and efficiency based on the ISO 13256-1 standard. Heating and cooling 

efficiency measurements under this standard include input energy for fans and pumps on a proportional basis that only 

includes that power required to transport air and liquid through the heat pump. The reason for this method is to simplify 

comparisons between heat pumps and to allow equipment to be optimized for real world conditions without suffering rating 

penalties. Real world energy use will exceed ratings predictions as a result of higher fluid static pressure requirements.

• ISO 13256-1 cooling rating conditions require 77 °F entering water temperature and 80.6 °F entering air temperature. More 

typical peak design criteria would be 80-90 °F entering water temperature and 75 °F entering air temperature. As a result, ISO 

13256-1 rated cooling efficiency would be higher than typical design peak operation.

• Some WAHPs include efficiency data for a part-load operating condition as allowed by ISO 13256-1 for multiple stage or 

variable speed compressors. No seasonal energy efficiency metric (analogous to SEER or IEER) currently applies to WAHPs. 

The annual performance of a geothermal WAHP system can vary more widely than for other system types due to the large 

influence of ground loop design and characteristics.

• The ENERGY STAR criteria for ground-source heat pumps apply only to residential applications.

• Installation cost is for a closed loop system and includes necessary accessories. The ground loop heat exchanger and 

distribution pumping systems represent a majority of the installation cost.

• Low end WAHPs utilize single stage compressors. Higher efficiency units incorporate multiple stage or variable speed 

compressor controls to improve efficiency as well as humidity and temperature control. Variable speed ECM fan motors also 

improve overall energy efficiency.

• Advanced Case: Ground-source heat pumps are already highly efficient and have not changed much in terms of efficiency in 

recent years. With increased R&D, it is anticipated that the equipment and installation costs will be reduced over time, but 

efficiency will likely stay the same. 

143

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Final

Packaged Terminal Air Conditioners

144

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DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h)19 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Efficiency (EER) 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 13.1 11.3 13.1 11.3 13.1 11.3 13.1

Efficiency 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.8 3.3 3.8 3.3 3.8 3.3 3.8

Average Life (y) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 1,460 1,460 1,460 1,460 1,560 1,460 1,560 1,460 1,560 1,460 1,560

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 1,740 1,740 1,740 1,740 1,840 1,740 1,840 1,740 1,840 1,740 1,840

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 193 193 193 193 204 193 204 193 204 193 204

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

1. Typical capacity is representative of units with the most shipments. It was also the representative cooling capacity for DOE's analysis in packaged terminal air conditioners (PTAC) and packaged terminal 

heat pumps (PTHP) EERE 2022 NOPD.

2. High values for 2022 and beyond are based on the max-tech level from PTAC & PTHP EERE 2022 NOPD.

Note: 

The current standard went into effect in January 2017.

Same as Reference Case
Final

Packaged Terminal Air Conditioners

• PTAC are a self-contained, ductless air conditioning system used for commercial applications. 

• Analysis was conducted for the standard equipment class at the representative cooling capacity of 9000 Btu/h. 

145

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Cooling Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Equipment Size Equipment Class

Federal Standard

EER

PTAC Standard

< 7000 11.9

≥7,000 Btu/h and 

≤15,000 Btu/h 14.0 – (0.3 x Cap)

> 15,000 Btu/h 9.5
Final

Packaged Terminal Heat Pumps

146

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DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical2 High3 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h)19 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Efficiency (EER) 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 13.1 11.5 13.1 12.0 13.1 12.4 13.1

Efficiency 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.8

COP (Heating) 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.6

Average Life (y) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 1,620 1,620 1,620 1,620 1,720 1,630 1,720 1,630 1,720 1,630 1,720

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 1,910 1,910 1,910 1,910 2,010 1,910 2,010 1,910 2,010 1,910 2,010

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 212 212 212 212 223 212 223 212 223 212 223

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

1. Typical capacity is representative of units with the most shipments. It was also the representative cooling capacity for DOE's analysis in PTAC & PTHP EERE 2022 NOPD.

2. Typical values for 2022 and beyond are based on the efficiency level that has the largest market share per PTAC & PTHP EERE 2022 NOPD.

3. High values for 2022 and beyond are based on the max-tech level from PTAC & PTHP EERE 2022 NOPD.

Note: 

The current standard went into effect in October 2012.

Higher efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency
Final

Packaged Terminal Heat Pumps

• PTHP are self-contained heat pumps primarily used for commercial applications.

• Analysis was conducted for the standard equipment class at the representative cooling capacity of 9000 Btu/h. 

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more cost-effective variable 

speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs.

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Cooling Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Equipment Size Equipment Class

Federal 

Standard

EER

Federal 

Standard

COP

PTHP Standard

< 7000 11.9 3.3

≥7,000 Btu/h and 

≤15,000 Btu/h 14.0 – (0.3 x Cap) 3.7 – (0.052 x 

Cap)

> 15,000 Btu/h 9.5 2.9

PTHP Non-Standard

< 7000 9.3 2.7

≥7,000 Btu/h and 

≤15,000 Btu/h 

10.8 – (0.213 x 

Cap)

2.9 – (0.026 x 

Cap)

> 15,000 Btu/h 7.6 2.5
Final

Commercial Water Heating

148

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Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

149

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 2.0

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Storage Capacity (gal) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199

Thermal Efficiency (%)181 82 80 82 94 99 95 99 95 99 95 99

Average Life (y) 13 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

3,870 3,890 3,850 3,890 4,180 4,290 4,200 4,290 4,200 4,290 4,200 4,290

5,170 5,200 5,140 5,200 5,530 5,650 5,550 5,650 5,550 5,650 5,550 5,650

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

5,170 5,190 5,140 5,190 6,630 6,730 6,640 6,730 6,640 6,730 6,640 6,730

8,440 8,460 8,410 8,460 8,590 8,710 8,610 8,710 8,610 8,710 8,610 8,710

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 42 42 43 42 41 39 40 39 40 39 40 39

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)2320 320 320 320 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

1. Different levels of standby loss were not included in this analysis. 

2. Maintenance consists of sediment and scale removal once or twice per year and replacement of miscellaneous components such as gaskets and sealants. Condensing units have an additional cost for replacement of 

condensate neutralizer media every two years.

Note: 

The current standard went into effect in October 2015.

ENERGY STAR V. 2.0 went into effect in October 2018.

The range of retail and installed costs represent the range from replacement market to new construction market.

Return to Table of Contents

Same as Reference Case
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

• Input capacity > 155 kBtu/h and storage capacity ≤ 140 gal

• Federal standard:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 80%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h) : Input Rate/800 + 110 × (Rated Volume)1/2

• ENERGY STAR requirements:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 94%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h): 0.84 × [(Input Rate/800) + 110 × (Rated Volume)1/2]

• Baseline units are typically constructed similarly to residential units, though with higher input capacities (and often 

higher storage volumes).

• High-efficiency units include condensing heat exchangers (typically stainless or enameled steel) to extract additional 

heat by condensing water vapor in flue gases. Condensing units also include an inducer fan system or power burner. 

The heat exchanger is typically contained within the tank, but some designs consist of an external heating module 

attached to a storage tank. Condensing units are expected to be the majority market share by 2030.

• Maintenance consists of sediment and scale removal once or twice per year and replacement of miscellaneous 

components such as gaskets and sealants. Condensing units have an additional cost for replacement of condensate 

neutralizer media every two years.

150

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Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters

Annual shipments have fluctuated from 99,000 units in 2000 to 75,000 units in 2009, back to 99,000 units in 2015 and 

gradually decreasing since then until 2020.

Source: CWH EERE 2022 NOPR and AHRI

151

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Unit Shipments (thousands)

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters
Final

Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

152

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Storage Capacity (gal) 119 119 119 119 119 119 119

Typical Input Capacity (kW)1

18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

Thermal Efficiency (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (y) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

3,180 3,180 3,180 3,180 3,180 3,180 3,180

3,750 3,750 3,750 3,750 3,750 3,750 3,750

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

4,460 4,460 4,460 4,460 4,460 4,460 4,460

4,690 4,690 4,690 4,690 4,690 4,690 4,690

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 76 76 76 76 76 76 76

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1. Different levels of standby loss were not included in this analysis. 

Note: 

No new standards rulemaking has been initiated for commercial electric resistance water heaters since CWH EERE 2016 NOPR. Accordingly, the results are the same as EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018), 

updated to 2022$.

The range of retail equipment and installed costs represents the range from replacement market to new construction market. 

Return to Table of Contents

Same as Reference Case
Final

Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

• Federal standard:

— Maximum standby loss (%/h) : 0.30 + 27/Measured Storage Volume

— Minimum thermal efficiency: no standard, but all units have an efficiency ≥ 98%

• Storage capacity: typically, 50 to 120 gallons, though smaller and larger units exist for specialized applications

• Commercial units are typically constructed similar to residential units, though with higher input capacities (and often 

higher storage volumes).

• There is very little variation in thermal efficiency on the market; variation in standby loss is typically due to tank 

design and insulation thickness. 

• Maintenance consists of sediment and scale removal once or twice per year.

153

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Final

Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters

Annual shipments increased by almost 50% between 2002 and 2008. After a small dip in shipments in 2009, annual 

shipments have increased by about 173% between 2009 and 2017, stabilizing between 140-150 thousand shipments per 

year since then.

Source: AHRI

154

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Unit Shipments (thousands)

Commercial Electric Resistance Water Heaters
Final

Commercial Heat Pump Water Heaters

155

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical ENERGY STAR 

V. 2.0 Typical Typical Typical

Water Flow Rate (gal/min)134 34 34 34 34 34 34

Typical Output Capacity (kW)150 50 50 50 50 50 50

Typical Output Capacity (kBtu/h) 171 171 171 171 171 171 171

Coefficient of Performance (COPh) 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.0 4 4.2 4.4

Average Life (y) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)255,406 55,406 55,406 55,406 55,406 55,406 55,406

Total Installed Cost (2022$)259,935 59,935 59,935 59,935 59,935 59,935 59,935

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 350 350 350 350 350 350 350

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)2120 120 120 120 120 120 120

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1. Water flow rate scales with typical capacity. The storage tanks must be purchased and installed separately from the HP unit. The typical output and flow rate provided are near the median of the products 

available on the market currently.

2. Costs are same as EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018), updated to 2022$. Updated representative costs for commercial heat pump water heaters are not available due to the extremely small market for 

these products.

Note: 

ENERGY STAR V. 2.0 went into effect in October 2018.

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as reference case despite increased efficiency
Final

Commercial Heat Pump Water Heaters

• Typical commercial HPWHs (CHPWHs) are add-on units designed to be used with a storage tank(s); integrated 

CHPWHs have emerged on the market (i.e., heat pump module and storage tank combined in one unit) in recent 

years.

• CHPWHs serve only a small portion of the commercial water heating (CWH) market, with the ENERGY STAR 

database listing only two manufacturers, each with one basic model listed.

• CHPWHs can extract heat from either air or water for heating potable water (“air-source” or “water-source”). The 

capacity of air-source CHPWHs falls at lower ambient air temperatures.

• Air-source CHPWHs cool the surrounding air, which can be desirable when installed indoors in applications with a 

year-round cooling load (e.g., a commercial kitchen).

• Output capacities for CHPWHs range from 17 kW to over 70 kW for air-source units and over 600 kW for water-source 

units.

• Some commercial applications require water as hot as 180 °F, such as dishwashing; however, most CHPWHs cannot 

deliver hot water at temperatures higher than 150 °F. 

• There are no current Federal standards for CHPWHs, but DOE prescribes a test procedure for determining COPhfor 

CHPWHs.

• The most recent ENERGY STAR V. 2.0 specification for CWH equipment went into effect in October 2018. It specifies a 

COPhlevel of 3.0 for CHPWHs. 

• Advanced Case: Due to increases in R&D, improvements in current technology (e.g., more cost-effective variable 

speed technology) are expected to increase efficiency without substantially increasing costs. 

156

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Final

Commercial Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

157

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Storage Capacity (gal) 70 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Thermal Efficiency (%)179 81 80 81 82 81 82 81 82 81 82

Average Life (y) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 5,470 5,470 5,470 5,470 5,470 5,470 5,470 5,470 5,470 5,470 5,470

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 6,120 6,120 6,120 6,120 6,120 6,120 6,120 6,120 6,120 6,120 6,120

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 26 25 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 210 210 210 210

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1. Different levels of standby loss were not included in this analysis. 

Note: 

The commercial oil-fired water heaters market is very small; currently, there are only 4 basic models in DOE’s CCD. DOE's rulemaking analysis for oil-fired water heaters has not been updated since 2001. The 

retail, installed, and maintenance costs have been updated from EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018) to 2022$.

The current standard went into effect in October 2015.

Return to Table of Contents

Same as Reference Case
Final

Commercial Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters

• Input capacity > 155 kBtu/h and storage capacity ≤ 140 gal

• Federal standard:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 80%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h) : Input Rate/800 + 110 × (Rated Volume)1/2

• Condensing units do not exist, thus the highest thermal efficiency on the market is 82%.

• Commercial units are typically constructed similar to residential units, though with higher input capacities (and often 

higher storage volumes).

• Maintenance costs include sediment and scale removal once or twice per year. 

• The market for commercial oil-fired storage water heaters is very small; shipments are approximately 3% of shipments 

for commercial gas-fired storage water heaters.

158

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Final

Commercial Electric Booster Water Heaters

159

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (gal)

6 6 6 6 6 6

16 16 16 16 16 16

Typical Output Capacity (kBtu/h) 1,374 1,374 1,374 1,374 1,374 1,374

Thermal Efficiency (%) 98 98 98 98 98 98

Average Life (y)

3 3 3 3 3 3

10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)1

1,530 1,530 1,920 1,920 1,920 1,920

3,290 3,530 4,560 4,560 4,560 4,560

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 1

1,730 1,730 2,120 2,120 2,120 2,120

3,490 3,730 4,760 4,760 4,760 4,760

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 2 2 3 3 3 3

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)2- - - - - -

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) - - - - - -

1. The 2012 and 2018 installed base costs are the same as EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018), updated to 2022$. Retail costs for 2022 and later are based on the range of costs for products on the market 

today. Installed costs assume a $200 installation price.

2. Maintenance costs are negligible.

Return to Table of Contents

Same as Reference Case
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Booster Water Heaters

160

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (gal)

3 3 3 3 3 3 3

5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Typical Output Capacity (kBtu/h) 500 500 500 500 500 500 500

Thermal Efficiency (%)180 80 80 80 80 91 80

Average Life (y)

5 5 5 5 5 5 5

10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)2

5,530 5,760 7,130 7,130 7,130 9,500 7,130

8,000 9,060 11,120 11,120 11,120 12,500 11,120

Total Installed Cost (2022$)2

5,830 6,060 7,430 7,430 7,430 9,800 7,430

8,300 9,360 11,420 11,420 11,420 12,800 11,420

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 14 15 19 19 19 23 19

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 160 160 160 160 160 160 160

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1. While EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018) included high values reflecting condensing models, models currently available in the market do not exceed 80% efficiency.

2. The 2012 and 2018 installed base costs are the same as EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018), updated to 2022$. Retail costs for 2022 and later are based on the range of costs for products on the market 

today. Installed costs assume a $300 installation price.

Return to Table of Contents

Higher efficiencies with corresponding cost increases
Final

Commercial Booster Water Heaters

• Booster water heaters are installed, often at the point of use, in series with the main service water heating system to 

boost service water temperatures. The main service water heating system may provide 110-140 F water, and the 

booster water heater may increase that temperature to 180-195 F. Typical commercial applications for booster water 

heaters include commercial dishwashers, laundromats, hospitals, and car washes.

• Commercial booster water heaters are regulated by DOE as either storage or instantaneous water heaters, depending 

on the ratio of input capacity to storage volume. Units with input capacity < 4,000 Btu/h per gallon of stored water are 

storage water heaters; all other units are instantaneous water heaters.

• DOE’s regulations do not currently include standards for electric instantaneous water heaters, but standards are 

included for electric storage water heaters, gas-fired instantaneous water heaters, and gas-fired storage water heaters. 

• Condensing gas-fired booster water heaters, those with an efficiency of 90% of more, were analyzed previously. There 

are no condensing units currently on the market. Condensing gas-fired booster water heaters can only operate if the 

incoming water temperature is below 130 F so there is enough heat transfer to condense.

• Booster water heaters typically have short lifetimes because of high usage and extreme temperatures.

• Shipments are small due to the limited number of applications.

• Advanced Case: increased high efficiencies are possible due to market incentives to re-introduce condensing 

commercial gas-fired booster water heaters through additional investment, research, and development. No significant 

changes otherwise.

161

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Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

162

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 2.0

High2 Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 

250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 399

Thermal Efficiency (%) 80 92 80 92 94 99 96 99 96 99 96 99

Average Life (y)

17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)1

1,630 1,840 1,630 1,840 1,880 7,990 1,930 7,990 1,930 7,990 1,930 7,990

4,400 8,610 4,400 8,610 9,000 9,990 9,400 9,990 9,400 9,990 9,400 9,990

Total Installed Cost (2022$)1

2,430 3,980 2,430 3,980 4,010 13,000 4,070 13,000 4,070 13,000 4,070 13,000

10,380 13,560 10,380 13,560 13,950 14,950 14,350 14,950 14,350 14,950 14,350 14,950

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 25 29 25 29 29 44 30 44 30 44 30 44

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)3

90 100 90 100 100 820 100 820 100 820 100 820

760 820 760 820 820 830 830 830 830 830 830 830

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 3 1 3 1 3

1. Commercial gas-fired instantaneous water heaters are categorized into two groups: tankless water heater and hot water supply boiler. Tankless units are similar in design to residential tankless units. The 

hot water supply boiler has a much higher input and is similar in design to boilers. The large variation of total input capacity and design causes a large range of costs. The range of retail, installed, and 

maintenance costs represent the differences in design, as well as the cost ranges arising from replacement versus new construction markets.

2. High efficiency was determined based on DOE's CCD. The most efficient tankless water heater has a thermal efficiency of 96%. The most efficient hot water supply boiler has a thermal efficiency of 99%.

3. Maintenance consists replacement of miscellaneous components such as gaskets and sealants. Condensing units have an additional cost for replacement of condensate neutralizer media every two years.

Note:

For the installed base, current standard, and typical costs, low values represent costs for tankless water heaters in the replacement market while high values represent costs for hot water supply boilers in the 

new construction market. The range of costs for the High values are estimated costs for hot water supply boilers in the replacement and new construction market.

ENERGY STAR V. 2.0 went into effect in October 2018.

Return to Table of Contents

Same as Reference Case
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

• Storage Capacity < 10 gallons and ≥ 10 gallons

• Federal standard:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 80%

— Maximum standby loss (Btu/h): Input Rate/800 + 110 x (Rated Volume)1/2

• ENERGY STAR requirements:

— Minimum thermal efficiency: 94% 

• Wall-mounted (“tankless”) units typically do not exceed ~400,000 Btu/h and are similar in design to residential 

tankless units. Floor-mounted units (“circulating” or “volume” water heaters) are similar in design to boilers and can 

have input capacities in the millions of Btu/h. Floor-mounted units are typically installed with a storage tank.

• Despite high available input capacities, some installations use multiple units staged together, which may have 

reliability and/or efficiency benefits.

• Similar to storage water heaters, higher efficiencies are achieved with condensing operation, which requires a 

condensing heat exchanger and inducer fan or power burner. Some units include both non-condensing and 

condensing heat exchangers, while others include a single condensing heat exchanger.

• When replacing a storage water heater with an instantaneous water heater, there may be significant additional costs to 

upsize the gas supply line and change the venting.

163

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Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters

Annual shipments for gas-fired instantaneous tankless water heaters have gradually increased since 2000 while those 

for gas-fired instantaneous hot water supply boiler water heaters peaked in 2008 and have been decreasing since then, 

recently stabilizing around 10,000 annual shipments.

Source: CWH EERE 2022 NOPR

164

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Unit Shipments (thousands)

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heater

Tankless Hot Water Supply Boiler
Final

Commercial Solar Water Heaters

165

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR V. 4.0

ENERGY 

STAR V. 5.0 Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.)1

85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

Typical Capacity (m2) 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90

Typical Capacity (Input) (kBtu/h) – North 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05

Typical Capacity (Input) (kBtu/h) – South 6.74 6.74 6.74 6.74 6.74 6.74 6.74 6.74

Solar Uniform Energy Factor (SUEF)2

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Average Life (y) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)3

10,470 10,470 10,280 10,280 10,280 10,280 10,280 10,280

Total Installed Cost (2022$)3

14,180 14,180 12,640 12,640 12,640 12,640 12,640 12,640

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) – North 936 936 834 834 834 834 834 834

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) – South 702 702 626 626 626 626 626 626

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)4100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) - North 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) - South 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

1. Typical capacity refers to the solar collector panel area. It was determined using the SRCC database as the average value of the largest bin (in terms of capacity) with the greatest number of units.

2. In 2020, the efficiency metric for solar water heaters changed from SEF to SUEF. There is no equation or scaling factor readily available to translate SEF to SUEF. Accordingly, for the 2012 and 2018 installed 

base, SUEF was determined using the 2020 ENERGY STAR data set assuming the typical SEF/SUEF value was similar between 2012-2020. For 2022 and beyond, due to lack of SUEF data, it is assumed that a 

typical electric backup unit would meet the ENERGY STAR criteria. ENERGY STAR specifies a minimum SUEF of 3.0 for electric backup units and 1.8 for gas backup units.

3. Costs are for an indirect (active closed loop) system, including tank and backup heater. Smaller capacity/cost systems are typical for southern & western states (>two-third of the current market). Higher 

capacity/cost systems are required in colder/cloudier regions. The 2012 and 2018 installed base costs are updated from EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018) to 2022$.

4. Annual maintenance is expected to be 0.5% to 1% of the total installation.

Note: 

ENERGY STAR V. 4.0 went into effect in January 2022. ENERGY STAR V. 5.0 will go into effect in April 2023 but the ENERGY STAR criteria for solar water heaters will remain the same in ENERGY STAR V. 5.0.

Return to Table of Contents

Same as Reference Case
Final

Commercial Solar Water Heaters

• In 2020, a diverse group of stakeholders from the solar thermal industry developed the SUEF Specification for solar 

water heaters. The goal of this specification is to align with the UEF metric used by DOE for other water heating 

technologies. 

• SUEF is also the metric used by the current ENERGY STAR Specification, and it replaced the SEF metric. 

• EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018) presented results using SEF and solar fraction (SF). SEF is currently not used 

in either the ENERGY STAR or SRCC databases; accordingly, this report presents results according to SUEF. SF is the 

portion of the total conventional hot water heating load (delivered energy and tank standby losses). SF varies from 0 to 

1.0. Typical solar fraction values are 0.5–0.75.

• There is no equation or scaling factor readily available to translate SEF to SUEF. Accordingly, for the 2012 and 2018 

installed base, SUEF was determined using the 2020 ENERGY STAR data set assuming the typical SEF/SUEF value 

was similar between 2012-2020. For 2022 and beyond, SUEF is the average SUEF for solar water heaters with a "highusage" draw pattern from the current ENERGY STAR qualified product list.

• Commercial solar water heaters are typically custom designed for a specific installation.

• Commercial solar water heaters may include backup heating, from sources such as electric resistance or hydronic heat 

(supplied from a gas-fired boiler or geothermal heat pump).

• Storage volumes of tanks for commercial solar water heaters can span from 140 gallons to over 2,000 gallons.

• SRCC’s OG-300 can be used to certify commercial systems, but most commercial systems are larger and unique; this 

certification program is mostly used for residential solar water heaters.

— Many incentive programs require that solar collectors for commercial systems be certified to SRCC’s certification 

program for collectors, OG-100.

166

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Final

Commercial Cooking Products

167

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Commercial Natural Gas Range with Griddle and Oven

168

1. ENERGY STAR does not cover combination products that include griddles, ranges, and ovens in one single package. The ENERGY STAR levels provided here reflect specifications for individual products. 

Range tops are not covered by ENERGY STAR.

2. ENERGY STAR V. 3.0 updated the requirements for commercial ovens from V. 2.2, effective January 2023. Data shown is reflective of a standard full-size convection oven that holds 5 or more pans.

3. Combined energy efficiency and combined idle energy rate are calculated as a weighted average of each component using typical daily operating hours sourced from Food Service Technology Center (FSTC). 

Typical daily operating hours are assumed to be 12 hours for the griddle component, 8 hours for the oven component, and 12 hours for the range component.

4. Products in the commercial cooking market generally do not scale in price with relation to cooking efficiency. Distributors also do not provide this information.

5. Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note:

ENERGY STAR V. 2.2 went into effect in October 2015. ENERGY STAR V. 3.0 went into effect in January 2023.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 2.21

High

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.02

Typical High Typical High Typical High

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency 

(%) 30 30 40 38 69 NA 42 69 44 69 46 69

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 35 35 35 46 69 49 39 69 42 69 47 69

Range - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 30 30 30 NA 40 NA 33 40 36 40 39 40

Combined Energy Efficiency (%)331 31 35 NA 58 NA 38 58 41 58 44 58

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(Btu/h/ft2)

3,000 3,000 3,000 2,650 1,724 NA 2,700 1,724 2,450 1,724 2,200 1,724

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) 18,000 18,000 18,000 12,000 3,516 9,500 16,200 3,516 14,600 3,516 13,150 3,516

Range - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) 3,600 3,600 3,600 NA 1,900 NA 3,250 1,900 2,950 1,900 2,650 1,900

Combined Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h)310,350 10,350 10,350 NA 4,178 NA 9,319 4,178 8,431 4,178 7,581 4,178

Average Life (y) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)48,760 8,760 8,760 8,760 8,760 8,760 8,760 8,760 8,760 8,760 8,760 8,760

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 8,940 8,940 8,940 8,940 8,940 8,940 8,940 8,940 8,940 8,940 8,940 8,940

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 864 864 864 NA 2,140 NA 959 2,140 1,060 2,140 1,179 2,140

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)5– – – – – – – – – – – –

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) – – – – – – – – – – – –

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Commercial Electric Range with Griddle and Oven

169

1. ENERGY STAR does not cover combination products that include griddles, ranges, and ovens in one single package. The ENERGY STAR levels provided here reflect specifications for individual products. 

Range tops are not covered by ENERGY STAR.

2. ENERGY STAR V. 3.0 updates the requirements for commercial ovens from V. 2.2, effective January 12, 2023. Data shown is reflective of a standard full-size convection oven that holds 5 or more pans.

3. Combined energy efficiency and combined idle energy rate are calculated as a weighted average of each component using typical daily operating hours sourced from FSTC. Typical daily operating hours are 

assumed to be 12 hours for the griddle component, 8 hours for the oven component, and 12 hours for the range component.

4. No data on electric range top idle energy rates.

5. Products in the commercial cooking market generally do not scale in price with relation to cooking efficiency. Distributors also do not provide this information.

6. Maintenance costs are negligible.

Note:

ENERGY STAR V. 2.2 went into effect in October 2015. ENERGY STAR V. 3.0 goes into effect in January 2023.

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 2.21

High

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.02

Typical High Typical High Typical High

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency 

(%) 65 70 72 70 91 NA 74 91 76 91 78 91

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 65 65 65 71 86 76 67 86 69 86 71 86

Range - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) 75 75 75 NA 87 NA 77 87 80 87 81 87

Combined Energy Efficiency (%)369 71 71 NA 88 NA 73 88 76 88 77 88

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(kW/ft2

)

0.44 0.34 0.30 0.32 0.21 NA 0.29 0.21 0.28 0.21 0.27 0.21

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (kW) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.6 1.3 0.6 1.2 0.6

Range - Idle Energy Rate (kW)4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Combined Idle Energy Rate (kW)31.7 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.8 NA 1.3 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.1 0.8

Average Life (y) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)511,230 11,230 11,230 11,230 11,230 11,230 11,230 11,230 11,230 11,230 11,230 11,230

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 11,410 11,410 11,410 11,410 11,410 11,410 11,410 11,410 11,410 11,410 11,410 11,410

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 2,019 2,362 2,533 2,375 4,423 NA 2,662 4,423 2,805 4,423 2,964 4,423

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)6– – – – – – – – – – – –

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) – – – – – – – – – – – –

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Commercial Ranges with Griddle and Oven

• Combined product that typically includes 2-6 range tops, a 24 in. x 24 in. griddle surface, and one or two half- or fullsize ovens. 

• Combined product is not covered by ENERGY STAR. However, the individual product ENERGY STAR V. 2.2 

specifications are provided below.

• ENERGY STAR does not provide certification for range tops.

• There are no Federal standards for commercial cooking products.

• Product pricing in this market do not scale with efficiency, but rather depend on a number of other factors such as 

brand name, aesthetics, and additional features.

170

Product ENERGY STAR V. 2.2 

Requirements Gas Electric

Griddle

Cooking Energy Efficiency ≥ 38% ≥ 70%

Normalized Idle Energy Rate ≤ 2,650 Btu/h per ft2 ≤ 0.320 kW per ft2

Oven

Cooking Energy Efficiency ≥ 46% ≥ 71%

Idle Energy Rate ≤ 12,000 Btu/h Half size: ≤1.00 kW

Full size: ≤1.60 kW

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Commercial Ranges with Griddle and Oven

• ENERGY STAR V. 3.0 requirements for commercial ovens went into effect in January 2023:

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives are expected to drive efficiency improvements. However, because cost 

does not scale with efficiency, there is no significant expected change in cost. 

171

Product ENERGY STAR 

Requirements Gas Electric

Oven

Cooking Energy Efficiency ≥ 49% Half size: ≥ 71%

Full size: ≥ 76%

Idle Energy Rate ≤ 9,500 Btu/h

Half size: ≤1.00 kW

Full size ≥ 5 Pans: 

≤1.40 kW

Full size ≤ 5 Pans: 

≤1.00 kW

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Commercial Ranges with Griddle and Oven

172

Commercial oven shipments have gradually increased since 2013, following a peak in 2009. Commercial griddle 

shipments have remained steady since 2014.

Source: ENERGY STAR (Unit Shipment Data)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Units (thousands)

Commercial Cooking Product Shipments

Commercial Ovens

Commercial Griddles

Return to Table of Contents
Final

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

State 

Standards Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

V. 2.0

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Interior Volume (ft3)

1

7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8

Maximum Idle Energy Rate (W)2312 312 312 312 168 168 250 168 200 168 200 168

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)31,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 552 552 820 552 656 552 656 552

Average Life (y) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)43,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,800 3,800 3,200 3,800 3,200 3,800 3,200 3,800

Total Installed Cost (2022$)53,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,800 3,800 3,200 3,800 3,200 3,800 3,200 3,800

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 8,016 8,016 8,016 8,016 17,677 17,677 10,020 17,677 12,524 17,677 12,524 17,677

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 5– – – – – – – – – – – –

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) – – – – – – – – – – – –

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets – Small

173

1. Interior volume is characterized by the product size classes reported by ENERGY STAR. The small size class covers units with interior volume less than 13 ft3. Interior volume for the small size class was determined based on 

the units in the ENERGY STAR database, accessed February 2023.

2. Maximum idle energy rate is a function of interior volume. For the small size class, ENERGY STAR and high values were determined for a representative 7.8 ft3 using the ENERGY STAR database, accessed February 2023. 

The typical value was assumed to be equivalent to the state standard for a representative 7.8 ft3 unit. 

3. Annual energy use is determined using the latest FEMP data from December 2021, which assumes that a typical 22.4 ft3 commercial hot food holding cabinet uses an average of 9 hours per day and 365 days per year. The 

small size class is assumed to use the same number of annual usage hours as the medium size class.

4. Retail equipment costs were determined using distributor information for undercounter, half-size, and full-size hot food holding cabinets.

5. Additional installation costs and maintenance costs are negligible.

Note:

ENERGY STAR V. 2.0 went into effect in October 2011 and was revised in December 2022. Massachusetts, Nevada, and Rhode Island state standards have adopted the ENERGY STAR V. 2.0 criteria that went into effect in 

October 2011. The majority of state standards (California, Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Maryland, New Hampshire, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington) implement the ENERGY STAR V. 1.0 specification that went 

into effect in August 2003, which is recorded in the table. ENERGY STAR V. 1.0 specifies a maximum idle energy rate of 40 W per cubic foot of interior volume.

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency
Final

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

State 

Standards Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

V. 2.0

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Interior Volume (ft3)

1

21.4 21.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4

Maximum Idle Energy Rate (W)2900 856 896 896 299 298 717 298 573 298 459 298

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)32,957 2,812 2,943 2,943 982 979 2,355 979 1,884 979 1,507 979

Average Life (y) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)42,940 4,530 4,600 4,600 5,000 5,000 4,600 5,000 4,600 5,000 4,600 5,000

Total Installed Cost (2022$)52,940 4,530 4,600 4,600 5,000 5,000 4,600 5,000 4,600 5,000 4,600 5,000

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 2,553 4,136 4,012 4,012 13,078 13,113 5,015 13,113 6,269 13,113 7,836 13,113

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 5– – – – – – – – – – – –

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) – – – – – – – – – – – –

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets – Medium

174

1. Interior volume is characterized by the product size classes reported by ENERGY STAR. The medium size class covers units with interior volume between 13 ft3to 28 ft3. For the medium size class, the interior volume 

increase from 21.4 ft3to 22.4 ft3in 2022 reflects the current representative product volume reported by FEMP, last updated December 2021.

2. Maximum idle energy rate is a function of interior volume. For the medium size class, the maximum idle energy rate for 2022 onward is reflective of a representative 22.4 ft3 unit, using the latest FEMP data from December 

2021.

3. Annual energy use is determined using the latest FEMP data from December 2021, which assumes that a typical 22.4 ft3 commercial hot food holding cabinet uses an average of 9 hours per day and 365 days per year.

4. Retail equipment costs were determined using distributor information for undercounter, half-size, and full-size hot food holding cabinets.

5. Additional installation costs and maintenance costs are negligible.

Note:

ENERGY STAR V. 2.0 went into effect in October 2011 and was revised in December 2022. Massachusetts, Nevada, and Rhode Island state standards have adopted the ENERGY STAR V. 2.0 criteria that went into effect in 

October 2011. The majority of state standards (California, Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Maryland, New Hampshire, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington) implement the ENERGY STAR V. 1.0 specification that went 

into effect in August 2003, which is recorded in the table. ENERGY STAR V. 1.0 specifies a maximum idle energy rate of 40 W per cubic foot of interior volume.

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency
Final

DATA

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

State 

Standards Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

V. 2.0

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Interior Volume (ft3)

1

44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0

Maximum Idle Energy Rate (W)21,333 1,333 1,760 1,333 400 310 1,067 310 853 310 683 310

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)34,380 4,380 5,782 4,380 1,314 1,018 3,504 1,018 2,803 1,018 2,243 1,018

Average Life (y) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)45,500 5,500 5,500 5,500 6,000 6,000 5,500 6,000 5,500 6,000 5,500 6,000

Total Installed Cost (2022$)55,500 5,500 5,500 5,500 6,000 6,000 5,500 6,000 5,500 6,000 5,500 6,000

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) 3,224 3,224 2,442 3,224 11,723 15,126 4,030 15,126 5,037 15,126 6,296 15,126

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 5– – – – – – – – – – – –

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) – – – – – – – – – – – –

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets – Large

175

1. Interior volume is characterized by the product size classes reported by ENERGY STAR. The large size class covers units with interior volume greater than or equal to 28 ft3. Interior volume for the large size class was 

determined based on the units in the ENERGY STAR database, accessed February 1, 2023.

2. Maximum idle energy rate is a function of interior volume. For the large size class, ENERGY STAR and high values were determined using the ENERGY STAR database, and the typical value uses the assumption that 

ENERGY STAR units are reported to be 70% more efficient than typical units.

3. Annual energy use is determined using the latest FEMP data from December 2021, which assumes that a typical 22.4 ft3 commercial hot food holding cabinet uses an average of 9 hours per day and 365 days per year. The 

large size class is assumed to use the same number of annual usage hours as the medium size class.

4. Retail equipment costs were determined using distributor information for undercounter, half-size, and full-size hot food holding cabinets.

5. Additional installation costs and maintenance costs are negligible.

Note:

ENERGY STAR V. 2.0 went into effect in October 2011 and was revised in December 2022. Massachusetts, Nevada, and Rhode Island state standards have adopted the ENERGY STAR V. 2.0 criteria that went into effect in 

October 2011. The majority of state standards (California, Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Maryland, New Hampshire, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington) implement the ENERGY STAR V. 1.0 specification that went 

into effect in August 2003, which is recorded in the table. ENERGY STAR V. 1.0 specifies a maximum idle energy rate of 40 W per cubic foot of interior volume.

Return to Table of Contents

Higher typical efficiencies with the same costs as ref. case despite increased efficiency
Final

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets

• Hot food holding cabinets are used in commercial kitchens to keep food warm until it is served.

• While available in many shapes and sizes, interior volumes around 21.4 ft3 were reported as typical in many settings in 

EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018). FEMP currently lists 22.4 ft3 as a representative unit size.

• Annual unit energy consumption can range from < 1,000 to > 30,000 kWh/y, depending on size, efficiency, and usage.

• Energy performance metric is “Idle Energy Consumption Rate” in Watts, measured using ASTM Standard F2140-11.

• There are no Federal standards for hot food holding cabinets, but seven States have identical standards.

• The first State standard took effect in California in 2006; this standard is now considered the typical or “baseline” 

product. It is also equivalent to the ENERGY STAR V. 1.0 Specification that went into effect in August 2003.

• ENERGY STAR V. 2.0 went into effect in October 2011.

• Maximum Idle Energy Consumption Rate for products 12 ≤ V < 28:

— State standards: ≤ 40 × V (baseline)

— ENERGY STAR V. 2.0: ≤ 2.0 × V + 254 (about 65% below baseline)

where V is interior volume in ft3.

• The most efficient products are about 80% below baseline.

• Energy savings achieved with insulation, automatic door closers, magnetic door gaskets, and Dutch doors (half-doors).

• Advanced Case: Increased market incentives are expected to drive efficiency improvements. However, because cost 

does not scale with efficiency, there is no significant expected change in cost. 

176

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets

177

Commercial hot food holding cabinet shipments peaked in 2007 at 115,000 units, followed by a peak of 90,000 units in 

2019.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Units (thousands)

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets

Source: ENERGY STAR (Unit Shipment Data)

Return to Table of Contents
Final

A-1

Appendix A

Data Sources

Guidehouse

1676 International Drive

McLean, VA 22102

And

Leidos

11951 Freedom Drive 

Reston, VA 20190

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Space Heating and Cooling

A-2

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (North) Return to Table of Contents

A-3

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

(North) 

V. 4.1

High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR

AFUE (%) CFR DOE CCD

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.1

DOE CCD Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR

Electric Consumption (kWh/y) Residential Furnaces 

EERE 2016 Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR

Average Life (y) Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Residential Furnaces 

EERE 2016 Total Installed Cost (2022$) Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)
Final

Residential Gas-Fired Furnaces (Rest of Country) Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

(ROC) 

V. 4.1

High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR

AFUE (%) CFR DOE CCD

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.1

DOE CCD Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR

Electric Consumption (kWh/y) Residential Furnaces 

EERE 2016 Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR

Average Life (y) Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Residential Furnaces 

EERE 2016 Total Installed Cost (2022$) Residential Furnaces EERE 2022 NOPR

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

A-4
Final

Residential Oil-Fired Furnaces Return to Table of Contents

A-5

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.1

High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) Residential Furnaces EERE 2011

AFUE (%) CFR DOE CCD

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.1

DOE CCD

Electric Consumption (kWh/y)

Residential Furnaces EERE 2011

Average Life (y)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)
Final

Residential Gas-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.0

High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 

Boilers 

EERE 2016

Boilers EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

AFUE (%) Boilers EERE 2022 

Preliminary Analysis DOE CCD

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.0

Boilers EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

Electric Consumption (kWh/y)

Boilers EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

Average Life (y)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

A-6
Final

Residential Oil-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.0

High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 

Boilers 

EERE 2016

Boilers EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

Guidehouse

AFUE (%) Boilers EERE 2022 

Preliminary Analysis DOE CCD

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.0

Boilers EERE 

2022 Preliminary 

Analysis

Electric Consumption (kWh/y)

Boilers EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

Average Life (y)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

A-7
Final

Residential Electric Resistance Furnaces Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical Typical

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors

Guidehouse

AFUE (%) DOE / ASHRAE

Average Life (y) Distributors

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) EIA Technology 

Forecast Updates 

(2018)

Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building Construction 

Costs 2023 / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Guidehouse

A-8
Final

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors Utilities/Distributors

Guidehouse

Efficiency (%) DOE DOE

Average Life (y)

Guidehouse

Guidehouse

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2022$) Home Remodeling Service

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Guidehouse

Residential Electric Resistance Unit Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-9
Final

Residential Central Air Conditioners – North (Not Hot-Dry or Hot-Humid) Return to Table of Contents

A-10

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.0

High New 

Standard

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 6.1

High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) CAC and HP EERE 2016

Guidehouse

SEER CAC and HP EERE 

2016 / Guidehouse CFR DOE CCD

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.0

CAC and 

HP EERE 

2016

RESNET

CAC and 

HP EERE 

2016

SSER2 RESNET

CAC and 

HP EERE 

2016

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 6.1

RESNET

Average Life (y)

CAC and HP EERE 2016

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$) CAC and HP EERE 2016 / Less (2021)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$) CAC and HP EERE 2016
Final

Residential Central Air Conditioners – South (Hot-Dry and Hot-Humid) Return to Table of Contents

A-11

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.0

High New 

Standard

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 6.1

High Typical / High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) CAC and HP EERE 2016

Guidehouse

SEER CAC and HP EERE 

2016 / Guidehouse CFR DOE CCD

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.0

CAC and 

HP EERE 

2016

RESNET

CAC and 

HP EERE 

2016

SSER2 RESNET

CAC and 

HP EERE 

2016

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 6.1

RESNET

Average Life (y)

CAC and HP EERE 2016

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$) CAC and HP EERE 2016 / Less (2021)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$) CAC and HP EERE 2016
Final

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.2

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors RAC EERE 2022 NOPR

CEER (Btu/Wh) Guidehouse CFR DOE CCD

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.2

DOE CCD

Guidehouse

Average Life (y)

RAC EERE 

2011 RAC EERE 2022 NOPR

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Residential Room Air Conditioners Return to Table of Contents

A-12
Final

Residential Portable Air Conditioners Return to Table of Contents

A-13

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2025 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High New Standard High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) 

PAC EERE 2020/Guidehouse Guidehouse

CEER

Average Life (y)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)
Final

Residential Swamp Coolers Return to Table of Contents

A-14

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

CFM

Product Literature / Guidehouse

Guidehouse

Power (Hp)

Average Life (y) TLC Plumbing / Guidehouse

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Product Literature / Gordian’s RSMeans Data –

Building Construction Costs 2023 / Guidehouse Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)
Final

Residential Air-Source Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents

A-15

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.0

High New 

Standard

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 6.1

ENERGY 

STAR 

Cold 

Climate 

Criteria

High Typical/High

Typical Capacity 

(kBtu/h) CACs and HPs EERE 2016 Direct Final Rule

SEER (Cooling)

CACs and HPs 

EERE 2016 Direct 

Final Rule/ 

Guidehouse

CFR DOE CCD/

Guidehouse

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.0

CACs and 

HPs EERE 

2016 Direct 

Final Rule

CACs and 

HPs EERE 

2016 Direct 

Final Rule/

Guidehouse

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 6.1

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 6.1

CACs and 

HPs EERE 

2016 Direct 

Final Rule

CACs and HPs EERE 2016 Direct 

Final Rule/Guidehouse HSPF (Heating)

Average Life (y)

CACs and HPs EERE 2016 Direct Final Rule Guidehouse

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

Annual Maintenance 

Cost (2022$)
Final

Residential Ductless Mini-Split Air-Source Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents

A-16

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 

AHRI/Guidehouse

Guidehouse

SEER

EER

HSPF

Average Life (y) CACs and HPs EERE 2016 Direct Final Rule

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building Construction Costs 2023 

/ Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) CACs and HPs EERE 2016 Direct Final Rule
Final

Residential Ground-Source Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents

A-17

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.2

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h)

Water-Source Unitary 

Heat Pumps EERE 

2015 Final Rule / DOE 

CCD

Guidehouse

COP (Heating)

AHRI 

Database

AHRI 

Database / 

DOE CCD EER (Cooling)

Average Life (y)

Guidehouse / WaterSource Unitary Heat 

Pumps EERE 2015 

Final Rule 

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)
Final

Residential Natural Gas Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents

A-18

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Manufacturer

Guidehouse

COP (Heating)

COP (Cooling) Product Literature

Annual Electric Use (kWh/y)

Average Life (y) Guidehouse

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) PERC

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Guidehouse

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)
Final

Residential Cordwood Stoves Return to Table of Contents

A-19

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors / Product Literature Guidehouse

Efficiency (Non-Catalytic) (HHV)

Guidehouse 

/ Literature EPA Certified Wood Stove Database (Room Heaters)

Efficiency (Catalytic) (HHV)

Average Life (y) Guidehouse

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Product Literature/Dealers

Total Installed Cost (2022$) Dealers Dealers/Guidehouse

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Dealers/Guidehouse
Final

Residential Wood Pellet Stoves Return to Table of Contents

A-20

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors / Product Literature Guidehouse

Efficiency (HHV)

EPA 

Default/

Literature/

Guidehouse

EPA Certified Wood Stove Database (Room Heaters)

Average Life (y) Guidehouse

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Product Literature/ Dealers

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 

Dealers/Guidehouse

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 
Final

Residential Water Heating

A-21

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-22

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.0

High

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.0

Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) 

Guidehouse

CWH 

EERE 2010 

Final Rule

/AHRI

CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

Guidehouse

Uniform Energy Factor DOE CCD CWH EERE 2022 

Preliminary Analysis

ENERGY 

STAR

CWH EERE 

2022 

Preliminary 

Analysis

ENERGY 

STAR

Average Life (y) CWH EERE 2010 Final 

Rule

CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Distributors 

CWH 

EERE 2010 

Final Rule

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 

EIA 

Technology 

Forecast 

Updates 

(2018)

CWH 

EERE 2010 

Final Rule

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$) 

CWH EERE 2010 Final 

Rule
Final

Residential Oil-Fired Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-23

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI

CWH EERE 

2010 Final 

Rule/AHRI

CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary 

Analysis Guidehouse

Uniform Energy Factor Guidehouse AHRI/DOE 

CCD

Average Life (y)

CWH EERE 2010 Final 

Rule

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 
Final

Residential Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-24

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal) AHRI

CWH EERE 

2010 Final 

Rule/AHRI

CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary 

Analysis Guidehouse

Uniform Energy Factor Guidehouse AHRI/

DOE CCD

Average Life (y)

CWH EERE 2010 Final 

Rule

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 
Final

Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-25

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.0

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (gal)

Guidehouse

AHRI CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary 

Analysis

Guidehouse

Uniform Energy Factor DOE CCD

CWH EERE 

2022 

Preliminary 

Analysis

ENERGY 

STAR

CWH EERE 

2022 

Preliminary 

Analysis

Average Life (y) CWH EERE 2010 Final 

Rule

CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary 

Analysis

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 

CWH EERE 

2010 Final 

Rule

Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 

CWH EERE 2010 Final 

Rule

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) 
Final

Residential Solar Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-26

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base ENERGY STAR 

V. 4.0 Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.)

SRCC / Guidehouse

ENERGY STAR

Guidehouse

Solar Uniform Energy Factor (SUEF) DOE

Average Life (y) DOE / Guidehouse

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

EIA Technology Forecast Updates 

(2018)

Gordian’s RSMeans Data –

Building Construction Costs 2023

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Guidehouse DOE
Final

Residential Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-27

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

V. 4.0

High

ENERGY 

STAR

V. 5.0

Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) AHRI

CWH 

EERE 2010 

Final Rule

/AHRI

CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

Guidehouse

Uniform Energy Factor Guidehouse DOE CCD CWH EERE 2022 

Preliminary Analysis

ENERGY 

STAR

CWH EERE 

2022 

Preliminary 

Analysis

ENERGY 

STAR

Average Life (y)

CWH EERE 2010 Final 

Rule CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)
Final

Residential Electric Instantaneous Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-28

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h)

Guidehouse

CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary 

Analysis

Guidehouse

Uniform Energy Factor CWH EERE 2022 Preliminary 

Analysis/DOE CCD

Average Life (y)

Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building 

Construction Costs 2023 Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Guidehouse
Final

Residential Appliances

A-29

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Top)

A-30

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3)

RF EERE 

2011 / 

Guidehouse

RF EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis / Guidehouse

Guidehouse

Energy Consumption (kWh/y) DOE CCD/ 

Guidehouse CFR DOE CCD ENERGY STAR DOE CCD

Average Life (y)

RF EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis / Guidehouse

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)
Final

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Side)

A-31

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3)

RF EERE 

2011 / 

Guidehouse

RF EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis / Guidehouse

Guidehouse

Energy Consumption (kWh/y) DOE CCD/ 

Guidehouse CFR DOE CCD ENERGY STAR DOE CCD

Average Life (y)

RF EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis / Guidehouse

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)
Final

Residential Refrigerator-Freezers (Bottom)

A-32

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.1

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (ft3)

RF EERE 

2011 / 

Guidehouse

RF EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis / Guidehouse

Guidehouse

Energy Consumption (kWh/y) DOE CCD/ 

Guidehouse CFR DOE CCD ENERGY STAR DOE CCD

Average Life (y)

RF EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis / Guidehouse

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)
Final

Residential Freezers (Chest)

A-33

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

)

RF EERE 2011 / 

Guidehouse

RF EERE Preliminary Analysis 

2021/DOE CCD

Guidehouse

Energy Consumption (kWh/y) Guidehouse

RF EERE 

Preliminary 

Analysis 

2021

RF EERE 

Preliminary 

Analysis 

2021/DOE 

CCD

DOE CCD

Average Life (y)

RF EERE 2011 / 

Guidehouse

RF EERE Preliminary 

Analysis 2021

RF EERE 

Preliminary 

Analysis 

2021

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

RF EERE 

Preliminary 

Analysis 

2021/DOE 

CCD

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)
Final

Residential Freezers (Upright)

A-34

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2022 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 5.1

High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3

)

RF EERE 2011/ 

Guidehouse RF EERE Preliminary Analysis 2021/ DOE CCD

Guidehouse

Energy Consumption (kWh/y) Guidehouse

RF EERE 

Preliminary 

Analysis 2021

RF EERE 

Preliminary 

Analysis 

2021/

DOE CCD

ENERGY 

STAR DOE CCD

Average Life (y)

RF EERE 2011 / 

Guidehouse RF EERE Preliminary Analysis 2021

RF EERE 

Preliminary 

Analysis 2021

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

RF EERE 

Preliminary 

Analysis 2021/

DOE CCD

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)
Final

Residential Natural Gas Cooktops

A-35

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors / Product Literature

Guidehouse

Integrated Annual Energy Consumption (kBtu/y) Guidehouse / Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2016 SNOPR

Cooking Efficiency (%) Guidehouse

Average Life (y) Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2020 NOPD

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2016 SNOPR / Consumer 

Cooking Products EERE 2020 NOPD

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Guidehouse / Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2016 SNOPR
Final

Residential Natural Gas Ovens

A-36

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2016 SNOPR / Product 

Literature

Guidehouse

Typical Cavity Volume (ft3) Consumer 

Cooking 

Products EERE 

2016 SNOPR

Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2020 

NOPD Integrated Annual Energy Consumption (kBtu/y)

Cooking Efficiency (%) Guidehouse

Average Life (y)

Consumer 

Cooking 

Products EERE 

2020 NOPD Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2020 

NOPD Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Consumer 

Cooking 

Products EERE 

2016 SNOPR Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Guidehouse / Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2016 SNOPR
Final

Residential Natural Gas Ranges

A-37

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity of Cooktop Component (kBtu/h) Distributors / Product Literature

Guidehouse

Typical Capacity of Oven Component (kBtu/h) Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2016 SNOPR / Product 

Literature

Typical Cavity Volume of Oven Component (ft3)

Consumer 

Cooking Products 

EERE 2020 NOPD

Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2020 

NOPD Integrated Annual Energy Consumption (kBtu/y)

Guidehouse / 

Consumer 

Cooking Products 

EERE 2016 

SNOPR

Average Life (y)

Consumer 

Cooking Products 

EERE 2020 NOPD

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Guidehouse / Distributors / Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building 

Total Installed Cost (2022$) Construction Costs 2023

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Guidehouse / Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2016 SNOPR
Final

Residential Electric Cooktops

A-38

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (W) Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2016 SNOPR / Distributors

Guidehouse

Integrated Annual Energy Consumption (kWh/y)

Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2020 NOPD

Average Life (y)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Guidehouse / Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2016 SNOPR
Final

Residential Electric Ovens

A-39

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (W) Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2016 SNOPR / Distributors

Guidehouse

Typical Cavity Volume (ft3) Consumer 

Cooking 

Products EERE 

2016 SNOPR

Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2020 

NOPD

Integrated Annual Energy Consumption (kWh/y)

Average Life (y)

Consumer 

Cooking 

Products EERE 

2020 NOPD

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Consumer 

Cooking 

Products EERE 

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 2020 NOPD

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Guidehouse / Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2016 SNOPR
Final

Residential Electric Ranges

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity of Cooktop Component (W) 

Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2016 SNOPR / Distributors

Guidehouse

Typical Capacity of Oven Component (W) 

Typical Cavity Volume of Oven Component (ft3) Consumer 

Cooking 

Products EERE 

2016 SNOPR

Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2020 

NOPD

Integrated Annual Energy Consumption (kWh/y)

Average Life (y)

Consumer 

Cooking 

Products EERE 

2020 NOPD

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Consumer 

Cooking 

Products EERE 

2020 NOPD Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Guidehouse / Consumer Cooking Products EERE 2016 SNOPR

A-40

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Electric Clothes Dryers

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2040

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR V. 1.1 High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3) DOE CCD

Guidehouse / 

DOE CCD / 

ENERGY 

STAR

Guidehouse

CEF, D1 (lb/kWh) Consumer 

Clothes 

Dryers EERE 

2022 NOPR / 

Guidehouse

DOE CCD

Consumer 

Clothes 

Dryers EERE 

2022 NOPR

DOE CCD ENERGY 

STAR V. 1.1

DOE CCD

CEF, D2 (lb/kWh) ENERGY 

STAR

Average Life (y) Consumer Clothes Dryers EERE 2022 NOPR

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Consumer Clothes Dryers EERE 2022 NOPR / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Consumer Clothes Dryers EERE 2022 NOPR

A-41

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Natural Gas Clothes Dryers

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical 

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 1.1

High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3) DOE CCD

Guidehouse

CEF, D1 (lb/kWh) Consumer 

Clothes 

Dryers EERE 

2022 NOPR / 

Guidehouse

DOE CCD

Consumer 

Clothes 

Dryers EERE 

2022 NOPR

DOE CCD ENERGY 

STAR V. 1.1 DOE CCD

CEF2, D2 (lb/kWh)

Average Life (y) Consumer Clothes Dryers EERE 2022 NOPR

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Consumer Clothes Dryers EERE 2022 NOPR / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) Consumer Clothes Dryers EERE 2022 NOPR

A-42

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Clothes Washers (Front)

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR V. 8.1 High Typical / High 

Typical Capacity (ft3) Guidehouse

DOE CCD / 

Guidehouse

DOE CCD

DOE CCD

DOE CCD

DOE CCD

Guidehouse

Integrated Modified Energy Factor 

(ft3/kWh/cycle) AHAM / 

Guidehouse

RCW EERE 

2021 

Preliminary 

Analysis

ENERGY 

STAR V. 8.1 Integrated Water Factor (gal/cycle/ft3

)

Average Life (y) RCW EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis

Water Consumption (gal/cycle)

Guidehouse / RCW EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis

Hot Water Energy (kWh/cycle)

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle)

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) EIA 

Technology 

Forecast 

Updates 

(2018)

RCW EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis/ Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2022$) RCW EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis/ Guidehouse 

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) RCW EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis / Guidehouse

A-43

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Clothes Washers (Top)

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical ENERGY STAR V. 8.1 High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (ft3) Guidehouse Guidehouse DOE CCD

DOE CCD

DOE CCD DOE CCD

Guidehouse

Integrated Modified Energy Factor 

(ft3/kWh/cycle) AHAM / 

Guidehouse

RCW EERE 2021 

Preliminary Analysis

ENERGY 

STAR V. 8.1 DOE CCD

Integrated Water Factor (gal/cycle/ft3)

Average Life (y) RCW EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis

Water Consumption (gal/cycle) RCW EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis / Guidehouse

Hot Water Energy (kWh/cycle)

Guidehouse

RCW EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis / Guidehouse

Machine Energy (kWh/cycle)

Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) EIA 

Technology 

Forecast 

Updates 

Total Installed Cost (2022$) (2018)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$) RCW EERE 2021 Preliminary Analysis / Guidehouse

A-44

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Residential Dishwashers

A-45

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2015 2020 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 6.0

High

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 7.0

Typical / High 

Typical Annual Energy Use (kWh/y) AHAM 

2014 / DW 

EERE 2012 

Final Rule

Guidehouse 

/ DOE CCD 

/ ENERGY 

STAR

CFR

Guidehouse 

/ DOE CCD 

/ ENERGY 

STAR

ENERGY 

STAR

DW EERE 

2022 

Preliminary 

Analysis

ENERGY 

STAR

Guidehouse

Water Consumption (gal/cycle)

Water Heating Energy Use (kWh/y)

AHAM 

2014 / DW 

EERE 2012 

Final Rule

DW EERE 

2016 Direct 

Final Rule

DW EERE 2022 Preliminary Analysis

Average Life (y) DW EERE 2016 Direct 

Final Rule/Guidehouse

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) DW EERE 

2012 Final 

Rule

DW EERE 

2016 Direct 

Final Rule Total Installed Cost (2022$)
Final

Commercial Space Heating and Cooling

A-46

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Furnaces Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High New Standard Typical High Typical/High

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 

AHRI

CWAF 

EERE 2015 DOE CCD

Guidehouse

Thermal Efficiency (%) DOE CCD CFR DOE CCD CFR

Typical Output Capacity (kBtu/h) Guidehouse

Average Life (y)

CWAF EERE 2015

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

A-47
Final

Commercial Oil-Fired Furnaces Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High New Standard Typical Typical/High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) AHRI DOE 

CCD

DOE CCD

Guidehouse

Thermal Efficiency (%) 10 CFR 

431.77 DOE CCD 10 CFR 431.77

Typical Output Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Guidehouse

Average Life (y)

CWAF EERE 2015

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

A-48
Final

Commercial Electric Resistance Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-49

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Small Large Small Large Small Large Small Large Small Large Small Large 

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) Distributors/Guidehouse

Guidehouse

Efficiency (%) Guidehouse/DOE

Average Life (y) Technology Cost and Performance File for Commercial Model for 

AEO2010

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) 

EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018)

Gordian’s RSMeans 

Data – Building 

Construction Costs 

2023

Total Installed Cost (2022$) 

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Guidehouse

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Electric Boilers Return to Table of Contents

A-50

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical

Typical Capacity (kW) BSRIA Guidehouse

Efficiency (%) EERE / Guidehouse

Average Life (y) ASHRAE 2007 HVAC 

Applications

ASHRAE 2015 HVAC 

Applications ASHRAE 2019 HVAC Applications

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018)

Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building Construction Costs 2023 / 

Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building Construction Costs 2023

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents

A-51

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base 

Installed 

Base 

Current 

Standard Typical High New Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Guidehouse Comm. Packaged Boilers EERE 2020

Thermal Efficiency (%)

ASHRAE 

Standard 

90.1-2004 / 

Guidehouse

Comm. 

Packaged 

Boilers 

EERE 2020 / 

Guidehouse

DOE CCD Comm. Packaged Boilers EERE 2020/Guidehouse

Average Life (y)

Comm. 

Heating, 

AC, WH 

EERE 2009

Comm. Packaged Boilers EERE 2020

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$) EIA 

Technology 

Forecast 

Updates 

(2018)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

Comm. 

Heating, 

AC, WH 

EERE 2009

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Oil-Fired Boilers Return to Table of Contents

A-52

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base 

Installed 

Base 

Current 

Standard Typical High New Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Input Capacity 

(kBtu/h) Guidehouse Comm. Packaged Boilers EERE 2020

Thermal Efficiency (%)

ASHRAE 

Standard 

90.1-2004 / 

Guidehouse

Comm. 

Packaged 

Boilers 

EERE 2020 / 

Guidehouse

DOE CCD Comm. Packaged Boilers EERE 2020/Guidehouse

Average Life (y)

Comm. 

Heating, 

AC, WH 

EERE 2009

Comm. Packaged Boilers EERE 2020

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$) EIA 

Technology 

Forecast 

Updates 

(2018)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

Comm. 

Heating, 

AC, WH 

EERE 2009

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Centrifugal Chillers (Water-Cooled) Return to Table of Contents

A-53

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.1-2019 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons) IPCC/ARB/TEAP/Guidehouse

Guidehouse

Efficiency (kW/ton) ASHRAE 

90.1-

2010/FEMP/

eSource/

Product 

Literature

ASHRAE 90.1-2019/Product Lit

COP

Average Life (y)

2007 

ASHRAE 

Applications 

Handbook

2015 ASHRAE Applications Handbook A37 

Table 4

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$/ton) EIA 

Technology 

Forecast 

Updates 

(2018)

Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building Construction 

Costs 2023 Total Installed Cost (2022$/ton)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/ton)

Guidehouse/Alabama Power Annual Maitnenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Reciprocating Chillers (Air-Cooled Only) Return to Table of Contents

A-54

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.1-2019 Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (tons) BSRIA/DEER Guidehouse

Guidehouse

Efficiency (kW/ton)

ASHRAE 90.1-

2010/DEER/

FEMP/Product 

Literature

ASHRAE 

90.1-2016 

(>150 TR)

ASHRAE 90.1-2019 Product Lit

COP

ASHRAE 90.1-

2010/DEER/

FEMP/Product 

Literature

ASHRAE 

90.1-2016 

(>150 TR)

Average Life (y) Manufacturers 2015 ASHRAE Applications Handbook A37 

Table 4

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$/ton)

EIA Technology Forecast 

Updates (2018)

Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building 

Construction Costs 2023 Total Installed Cost (2022$/ton)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/ton)

Guidehouse/Alabama Power Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Screw Chillers (Air-Cooled Only) Return to Table of Contents

A-55

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base ASHRAE 

90.1-2019 Typical High Typical/High

Typical Capacity (tons) Guidehouse

Guidehouse

Efficiency (kW/ton)

Guidehouse ASHRAE 90.1-

2016 (>150 TR)

ASHRAE 90.1-

2019 (>150 TR)

ASHRAE 90.1-

2019 (>150 

TR)/Product 

Lit

Product Lit

COP

Average Life (y) Manufacturers FacilitiesNet 

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$/ton)

EIA Technology Forecast 

Updates (2018)

Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building 

Construction Costs 2023 / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/ton)

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/ton)

Guidehouse/Alabama Power

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Scroll Chillers (Air-Cooled Only) Return to Table of Contents

A-56

SOURCE

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

ASHRAE 

90.1-2019 Typical High Typical / High

Typical Capacity (tons) Guidehouse/Manufacturers

Guidehouse

Efficiency [full-load/IPLV] 

(kW/ton)

Guidehouse Product Lit/ 

Guidehouse

ASHRAE 

90.1-2019 

(>150 TR)

Product Lit/ 

Guidehouse Product Lit

COP [full-load/IPLV]

Average Life (y) Manufacturers

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$/ton)

EIA Technology Forecast 

Updates (2018)

Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building 

Construction Costs 2023 / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/ton)

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/ton)

Guidehouse/Alabama Power

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Chillers (Water-Cooled, Direct-Fired Only) Return to Table of Contents

A-57

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base: 

Absorption

Installed 

Base: 

EngineDriven

Installed 

Base: 

Absorption

Installed 

Base: 

EngineDriven

ASHRAE 

90.1-2019 

Absorption

CA Title 24 

– EngineDrivenAbsorption EngineDriven Absorption/Engine-Driven

Typical Capacity (tons) BSRIA/Distributors

Guidehouse

COP [full-load]

Product Literature/

Guidehouse Product Lit

ASHRAE 

90.1-2019 

Direct-fired 

Double 

Effect

CA Title 24 

Gas Engine 

Standard

Product Lit

COP [IPLV]

Average Life (y)

2007 ASHRAE 

Applications 

Handbook/

Distributors

2015 ASHRAE Applications Handbook A37 Table 4

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$/ton)

EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018) Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building 

Construction Costs 2023 / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/ton)

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/ton) Guidehouse/Alabama Power Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Rooftop Air Conditioners Return to Table of Contents

A-58

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.1

High New 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.0

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Output Capacity 

(kBtu/h)

AHRI / 

Guidehouse CUAC EERE 2016

Part Load Efficiency (IEER) CUAC EERE 2016 CUAC EERE 2016 / Guidehouse ENERGY 

STAR CUAC EERE 2016 ENERGY STAR

CUAC 

EERE 

2016

Efficiency (EER) CUAC EERE 2016 / Guidehouse

Efficiency Conversion Calculated

Average Life (y) CUAC EERE 2016

Retail Equipment Cost 

(2022$)

Distributors 

/ 

Guidehouse 

/ DEER, 2008

CUAC EERE 2016

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$) CUAC EERE 2016

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h) Calculated
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Engine-Drive Rooftop Air Conditioners Return to Table of Contents

A-59

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Typical

Typical Capacity (tons)

EIA Technology Forecast Updates (2018)

Guidehouse

Heating COP

Cooling COP

Average Life (y)

Retail Equipment Cost ($/ton)

Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building Construction Costs 2023 / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost ($/ton)

Total Installed Cost ($/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Rooftop Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents

A-60

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.1

High New 

Standard

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 4.0

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity 

(kBtu/h) CUHP EERE 2016

CUHP EERE 2016 / Guidehouse Part Load Efficiency 

(IEER) CUHP EERE 2016 / Guidehouse ENERGY 

STAR CUHP EERE 2016 ENERGY STAR

CUHP 

EERE 

COP (Heating) 2016

Average Life (y)

EIA 

Technology 

Forecast 

Updates 

(2018)

CUHP EERE 2016

Retail Equipment 

Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$)

Total Installed Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual 

Maintenance Cost 

(2022$)

Annual 

Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Ground-Source Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents

A-61

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) U.S. DOE/EIA Water-Source Unitary Heat Pumps EERE 2015 

Final Rule

Guidehouse

COP (Heating)

Guidehouse AHRI Database

EER (Cooling)

Average Life (y) Guidehouse / Water-Source Unitary Heat Pumps EERE 2015 Final 

Rule 

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Distributors/G

uidehouse

Water-Source Unitary Heat Pumps 2015 EERE 

Final Rule / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$) U.S. 

DOD/IGSHPA

/MA 

DOER/CEFIA/

ASHRAE

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Geothermal 

Heat Pump 

Consortium, 

Inc. (U.S. DOE 

Contract DEFG07-

95ID13347)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Packaged Terminal Air Conditioners Return to Table of Contents

A-62

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h)

PTAC & PTHP EERE 2022 NOPD PTAC & PTHP EERE 2022 NOPD / Guidehouse

Efficiency (EER)

Efficiency

Average Life (y)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Packaged Terminal Heat Pumps Return to Table of Contents

A-63

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h)

PTAC & PTHP EERE 2022 NOPD PTAC & PTHP EERE 2022 NOPD / Guidehouse

Efficiency (EER)

Efficiency

COP (Heating)

Average Life (y)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Water Heating

A-64

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-65

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 2.0

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Storage Capacity (gal)

EIA 

Technology 

Forecast 

Updates 

(2018)

CWH EERE 2022 NOPR

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 

Thermal Efficiency (%) DOE CCD / 

Guidehouse CFR DOE CCD / Guidehouse

ENERGY 

STAR DOE CCD CWH EERE 2022 NOPR / Guidehouse

Average Life (y) CWH EERE 2022 NOPR

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

CWH EERE 2022 NOPR

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Electric Resistance Storage Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-66

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical Typical

Typical Storage Capacity (gal)

Product 

Literature / 

Guidehouse

CWH EERE 2016 NOPR

Guidehouse

Typical Input Capacity (kW) Product 

Literature Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h)

Thermal Efficiency (%) Guidehouse

Average Life (y) CWH EERE 2016 NOPR

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

CWH EERE 2016 

NOPR / 

Guidehouse

CWH EERE 2016 NOPR

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Heat Pump Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-67

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical ENERGY STAR 

V. 2.0 Typical Typical Typical

Water Flow Rate (gal/min)

Distributors/Guidehouse

Guidehouse

Typical Output Capacity (kW)

Typical Output Capacity (kBtu/h)

Coefficient of Performance (COPh)

Average Life (y) EERE/Guidehouse

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

EIA Technology Forecast Updates 

(2018) Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Guidehouse

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-68

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical High Typical/High

Typical Storage Capacity (gal)

AHRI / 

Guidehouse DOE CCD/Guidehouse

Guidehouse

Typical Input Capacity (kBtu/h) 

Thermal Efficiency (%) Guidehouse CFR DOE CCD

Average Life (y) Commercial Heating, Air Conditioning and Water Heating Equipment EERE 2001

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Distributors / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Electric Booster Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-69

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (gal)

Product Literature / Guidehouse

Typical Output Capacity (kBtu/h)

Thermal Efficiency (%)

Average Life (y)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Booster Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-70

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Current 

Standard Typical Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (gal)

Product Literature / Guidehouse Guidehouse

Typical Output Capacity (kBtu/h)

Thermal Efficiency (%)

Average Life (y)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Gas-Fired Instantaneous Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-71

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

Current 

Standard Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 2.0

High Typical High Typical High Typical High

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h) DOE CCD

DOE CCD / Guidehouse

Thermal Efficiency (%) Guidehouse/DOE CCD DOE CCD ENERGY 

STAR DOE CCD

Average Life (y)

CWH EERE 2022 NOPR

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Solar Water Heaters Return to Table of Contents

A-72

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed Base Installed Base Typical ENERGY 

STAR V. 4.0

ENERGY 

STAR V. 5.0 Typical Typical Typical

Typical Capacity (sq. ft.)

SRCC / Guidehouse

Guidehouse

Typical Capacity (m2)

Typical Capacity (Input) (kBtu/h) - North

Typical Capacity (Input) (kBtu/h) - South

Solar Uniform Energy Factor (SUEF) ENERGY STAR / Guidehouse

Average Life (y) SRCC / Guidehouse

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) EIA Technology Forecast 

Updates (2018)

Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building 

Construction Costs 2023 / Guidehouse Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) - North

Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) - South

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) - North DOE / Guidehouse

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h) - South
Final

Commercial Cooking Products

A-73

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Commercial Natural Gas Range with Griddle and Oven

A-74

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 2.2 

High

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.0

Typical/High

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%)

Guidehouse FSTC

ENERGY 

STAR / FSTC

ENERGY 

STAR

ENERGY 

STAR

NA

Guidehouse

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) ENERGY 

STAR

Range - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) FEMP / CEC NA FEMP / CEC NA

Combined Energy Efficiency (%) Guidehouse / FSTC

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(Btu/h/ft2)

Guidehouse FSTC ENERGY 

STAR / FSTC ENERGY 

STAR

ENERGY 

STAR

NA

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) FEMP ENERGY 

STAR

ENERGY 

STAR

Range - Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) FSTC NA FSTC NA

Combined Idle Energy Rate (Btu/h) Guidehouse / FSTC / Distributors

Average Life (y) FSTC

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

FSTC / Guidehouse Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

FSTC Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Electric Range with Griddle and Oven

A-75

Return to Table of Contents

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2023 2030 2040 2050

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base Typical

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 2.2 

High

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 3.0

Typical/High

Griddle - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%)

Guidehouse FSTC

FSTC / 

ENERGY 

STAR / 

Guidehouse

ENERGY 

STAR

ENERGY 

STAR

NA

Guidehouse

Oven - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) ENERGY 

STAR

Range - Cooking Energy Efficiency (%) NA CEC NA

Combined Energy Efficiency (%) Guidehouse / FSTC

Griddle - Normalized Idle Energy Rate 

(kW/ft2

)

Guidehouse FSTC

FSTC / 

ENERGY 

STAR / 

Guidehouse

ENERGY 

STAR

ENERGY 

STAR

NA

Oven - Idle Energy Rate (kW) ENERGY 

STAR

Range - Idle Energy Rate (kW) NA

Combined Idle Energy Rate (kW) Guidehouse / FSTC / Distributors

Average Life (y) FSTC

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Distributors

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

FSTC / Guidehouse Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

Annual Maintenance Cost FSTC

(2022$/kBtu/h)
Final

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets – Small

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

State 

Standards Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

V. 2.0

High Typical/High

Interior Volume (ft3) FEMP / ENERGY STAR

Guidehouse

Maximum Idle Energy Rate (W) CEE / 

Guidehouse FEMP ASAP

ASAP / 

ENERGY 

STAR

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 2.0

FEMP / 

ENERGY 

STAR

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)

FEMP

Average Life (y)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Distributors / ENERGY STAR Savings Calculator / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

FSTC

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

A-76

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets – Medium

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

State 

Standards Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

V. 2.0

High Typical/High

Interior Volume (ft3) FEMP / ENERGY STAR

Guidehouse

Maximum Idle Energy Rate (W) CEE / 

Guidehouse FEMP ASAP

ASAP / 

ENERGY 

STAR

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 2.0

FEMP / 

ENERGY 

STAR

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)

FEMP

Average Life (y)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Distributors / ENERGY STAR Savings Calculator / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

FSTC

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

A-77

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets – Large

SOURCES

2012 2018 2022 2030 2040

Installed 

Base

Installed 

Base

State 

Standards Typical

ENERGY 

STAR

V. 2.0

High Typical/High

Interior Volume (ft3) FEMP / ENERGY STAR

Guidehouse

Maximum Idle Energy Rate (W) CEE / 

Guidehouse FEMP ASAP

ASAP / 

ENERGY 

STAR

ENERGY 

STAR 

V. 2.0

FEMP / 

ENERGY 

STAR

Annual Energy Use (kWh/y)

FEMP

Average Life (y)

Retail Equipment Cost (2022$) Distributors / ENERGY STAR Savings Calculator / Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$)

Guidehouse

Total Installed Cost (2022$/kBtu/h)

Annual Maintenance Cost (2022$)

FSTC

Annual Maintenance Cost 

(2022$/kBtu/h)

A-78

Return to Table of Contents
Final

Appendix B

References

Guidehouse

1676 International Drive

McLean, VA 22102

And

Leidos

11951 Freedom Drive 

Reston, VA 20190

B-1

Return to Table of Contents
Final

References

• AHRI. Air Conditioners Monthly Shipments, Retrieved August 2022 from: https://ahrinet.org/statistics

• AHRI. Furnaces Historical Data, Retrieved August 2022 from: https://ahrinet.org/statistics

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http://www.alabamapower.com/business/ways-to-save/chillers-space-cooling-options/compare-maintenancecosts.html

• ASAP. Hot Food Holding Cabinets. Retrieved October 2022 from https://appliance-standards.org/product/hot-foodholding-cabinets

• ASHRAE. (2004). ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2004. ASHRAE, Inc.

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• ASHRAE. (2016). ANSI/ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-2016. ASHRAE, Inc.

• ASHRAE. (2019). ANSI/ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-2019. ASHRAE, Inc.

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• Building Services Research and Information Association & Ducker Research Company. (1997, 1998). U.S. Market for 

Central Plant Air Conditioning; Market for Ducted Warm Air Central Heating; U.S. Market for Hydronic Heating and 

Burners; U.S. Water Heating Market; U.S. Unitary and Close Control Air Conditioning. 

• California Energy Commission. (2019). Building Energy Efficiency Standards for Residential and Nonresidential 

Buildings.

• CEC. (n.d.). California Energy Commission Appliance Efficiency Database. Retrieved 2004, September 2010, June 2013, 

and October 2022 from: http://www.appliances.energy.ca.gov/AdvancedSearch.aspx

Return to Table of Contents

B-2
Final

References

• CEE. (2009). “Commercial Hot Food Holding Cabinets Program Guide.” Consortium for Energy Efficiency. April 2009.

• CFR. (n.d.). National energy conservation standards authorized under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 

(EPCA) and codified in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR).

• DOE. (n.d.). Estimating the Cost and Energy Efficiency of a Solar Water Heater. Retrieved October 2022 from 

https://energy.gov/energysaver/estimating-cost-and-energy-efficiency-solar-water-heater

• DOE. (n.d.). Solar Water Heaters. Retrieved October 2022 from https://energy.gov/energysaver/solar-water-heaters 

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Lowe’s, Sears, and others).

• EERE. (2001). Energy Efficiency Program for Commercial and Industrial Equipment; Efficiency Standards for 

Commercial Heating, Air Conditioning and Water Heating Equipment; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2007). Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential 

Furnaces and Boilers; Final Rule. 

• EERE. (2008). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Clothes Washers; Direct 

Final Rule.

• EERE. (2009). Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy Conservation Standards and 

Test Procedures for Commercial Heating, Air-Conditioning, and Water-Heating Equipment; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2010). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Water Heaters, Direct 

Heating Equipment, and Pool Heaters; Final Rule. 

B-3

Return to Table of Contents
Final

References

• EERE. (2011). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Clothes Dryers and 

Room Air Conditioners; Direct Final Rule.

• EERE. (2011). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furnaces and Residential 

Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps; Direct Final Rule.

• EERE. (2011). Energy Conservation Program: Standards for Residential Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, and 

Freezers; Final Rule.

• EERE. (2012). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Clothes Washers; Direct 

Final Rule.

• EERE. (2014). Energy Conservation Standards for Residential/Consumer Clothes Dryers.

• EERE. (2014). Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products (Ovens).

• EERE. (2014). Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furnaces.

• EERE. (2015). Energy Efficiency Program For Consumer Products And Commercial And Industrial Equipment: 

Commercial Warm Air Furnaces.

• EERE. (2015). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Small, Large, and Very Large 

Commercial Package Air Conditioners.

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy Conservation Standards for 

Small, Large, and Very Large Air-Cooled Commercial Package Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment and 

Commercial Warm Air Furnaces; Direct final rule and Technical Support Document.

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Boilers.

Return to Table of Contents

B-4
Final

References

• EERE. (2016). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Residential Central Air 

Conditioners and Heat Pumps.

• EERE. (2016). Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy Conservation Standards for 

Commercial Water Heating Equipment: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.

• EERE. (2017). Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Clothes Washers.

• EERE. (2020). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Packaged Boilers; Final 

rule 

• EERE. (2020). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Portable Air Conditioners.

• EERE. (2020). Final Rule Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer Products and 

Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Portable Air Conditioners.

• EERE. (2021). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers, 

and Freezers.; Preliminary Analysis

• EERE. (2021). Energy Conservation Program: Product Classes for Residential Dishwashers, Residential Clothes 

Washers, and Consumer Clothes Dryers.

• EERE. (2022). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Boilers; Preliminary 

Analysis.

• EERE. (2022). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Room Air Conditioners; Notice of 

Proposed Rulemaking.

• EERE (2022). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Packaged Terminal Air Conditioners 

and Packaged Terminal Heat Pumps; Notice of Proposed Determination. B-5

Return to Table of Contents
Final

References

• EERE (2022). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Water Heaters; 

Preliminary Analysis.

• EERE (2022). Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Water Heating 

Equipment; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.

• EIA – Technology Forecast Updates – Residential and Commercial Building Technologies. (2018). Retrieved August 

2022 from: https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/pdf/appendix-a.pdf

• ENERGY STAR Savings Calculator (n.d.). “Savings Calculator for ENERGY STAR Qualified Commercial Kitchen 

Equipment.” U.S. EPA and DOE. Retrieved June 2013 from 

http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=bulk_purchasing.bus_purchasing

• ENERGY STAR. (n.d.). Retrieved June 2013, September 2017, and October 2022, from ENERGY STAR Products: 

http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=products.pr_find_es_products

• EPA. USEPA Certified Wood Stove Database. Retrieved August 2022 from: 

https://cfpub.epa.gov/oarweb/woodstove/index.cfm?fuseaction=app.search

• FacilitiesNet. (2009). Properly Diagnosing Chiller Life Cycles. Retrieved September 2017 from: 

http://www.facilitiesnet.com/hvac/article/Properly-Diagnosing-Chiller-Life-Cycles--10645

• FEMP. (2012). “Federal Energy Management Program: Covered Product Category: Hot Food Holding Cabinets.” 

Retrieved June 2013 from: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/technologies/printable_versions/eep_hot_food.html

• FEMP. (2016, August). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Air-Cooled Chillers. Retrieved September 2017, from FEMP 

Technologies: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/technologies/eep_ac_chillers.html

Return to Table of Contents

B-6
Final

References

• FEMP. (2016, August). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Water-Cooled Electric Chillers. Retrieved September 2017, from 

FEMP Technologies: https://energy.gov/eere/femp/purchasing-energy-efficient-water-cooled-electric-chillers

• FEMP. (2020, June). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Air-Cooled Electric Chillers. Retrieved September 2022, from FEMP 

Technologies: https://energy.gov/eere/femp/purchasing-energy-efficient-air-cooled-electric-chillers

• FEMP. (2020, June). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Water-Cooled Electric Chillers. Retrieved September 2022, from 

FEMP Technologies: https://energy.gov/eere/femp/purchasing-energy-efficient-water-cooled-electric-chillers

• FEMP. (2021, December). Purchasing Energy-Efficient Hot Food Holding Cabinets. Retrieved October 2022 from FEMP 

Technologies: https://www.energy.gov/eere/femp/purchasing-energy-efficient-hot-food-holding-cabinets

• FSTC. (n.d.). Appliance Reports, Rangetop Performance Reports. Retrieved December 2017, from: 

https://fishnick.com/publications/appliancereports/rangetops/

• FSTC. (n.d.). Appliance Reports, Griddle Performance Reports. Retrieved December 2017, from: 

https://fishnick.com/publications/appliancereports/griddles/

• Gordian’s RSMeans Data – Building Construction Costs 2023. Copyright RSMeans and Gordian. 30 Patewood Dr. Suite 

350, Greenville, SC, 29615; All rights reserved.

• Guidehouse. (n.d.). In-House Expertise.

• Less et. al. (2021). The Cost of Decarbonization and Energy Upgrade Retrofits for US Homes. Retrieved February 2023 

from: https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/final_walker_-_the_cost_of_decarbonization_and_energy.pdf

• IGSPHA. (n.d.). International Ground-Source Heat Pump Association. Retrieved 2007 from www.igshpa.okstate.edu

Return to Table of Contents

B-7
Final

References

• International Ground-Source Heat Pump Association (IGSHPA) Conference Proceedings. (2012, October). Measuring 

the Costs & Benefits of Nationwide Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP) Deployment – A Progress Report. Retrieved June 

2013, from IGSHPA: http://www.igshpa.okstate.edu/membership/members_only/proceedings/2012/10-3-2012-0130-

Session-C-Measuring-the-Costs-&-Benefits-of-Nationwide-Geothermal-Heat-Pump-(GHP)-Deployment-A-ProgressReport.pdf

• Manufacturers. (n.d.). Guidehouse discussions with product manufacturers.

• Product Literature. (n.d.). Literature from manufacturers and experts on specific products. 

• Propane Education and Research Council (PERC). (2007). Assessment of Propane Fired Gas Air Conditioning, Heat 

Pumping and Dehumidification Technologies, Products, Markets and Economics

• Residential Energy Services Network. Draft PDS-01, MINHERS Addendum 71, SEER2/HSPF2 Conversions. Retrieved 

February 2023 from: https://www.resnet.us/about/standards/minhers/draft-pds-01-minhers-addendum-71-seer2-

hspf2-conversions/

• Solar Rating and Certification Corporation (SRCC). (n.d.) Solar Uniform Energy Factor Specification. Retrieved 

October 2022 from: https://solar-rating.org/resources/suef/

• Technology Cost and Performance File for Commercial Model for AEO2010. (2009). (E. Boedecker, Compiler)

• U.S. Department of Energy’s Compliance Certification Database. Retrieved August 2022 to February 2023 from: 

http://www.regulations.doe.gov/certification-data/

Return to Table of Contents

B-8