U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2021

For

AEO2021 Transportation Working Group

September 17, 2020 | Washington, DC

By

Caroline Campbell, Michael Dwyer, John Maples (lead), and Mark Schipper

Office of Long-Term Energy Modeling

Planned modeling and data updates in the transportation sector
AEO2021 and COVID-19

• AEO2021 reflects updated macroeconomic projections from IHS Markit 

(including vehicle sales)

• Short-term impacts of COVID-19 and its mitigation efforts are reflected in 

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts

• EIA released an Annual Energy Outlook Trends and Expectations report that 

discusses some of the early impacts of COVID-19 on different energy 

sectors: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/trends_expectations.php

AEO2021 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

September 10, 2020 2
Planned updates to the Annual Energy Outlook 2021

The Transportation Sector Demand Module (TDM) consists of four submodules 

representing a variety of travel modes: Light-Duty Vehicle (LDV), Air Travel, Freight 

Transport (heavy truck, rail, and marine), and Miscellaneous Energy Demand. 

Data and modeling updates are planned for

• Light-duty vehicles

• Public transit modes

• Heavy-duty vehicles (HDV)

• Recreational boats

• Passenger and freight air travel

AEO2021 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 17, 2020

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

3
Historical data updates

AEO2021 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 17, 2020 4
TDM data updates

• Light-duty vehicle stock model

– Stock data update to 2018 from 2016; data based on vehicle registrations by region, vintage, and fuel type, 

including car and light truck split based on vehicle data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

– CAFE technology data update to 2018; technology menu based on results of the Final Regulatory Impact 

Analysis

– Battery cost and performance update

• Heavy-duty vehicle stock model

– Stock data update to 2018 from 2016; using vehicle registrations by region, vintage, fleet type, and fuel type

– Region travel update to 2018, affects scrappage, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by vintage, and stock fuel 

economy

AEO2021 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 17, 2020

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

5
TDM data updates (continued)

• Aviation demand model

– Update to 2018 from 2016 from federal and private data sources--world sales and stocks, parked aircraft, 

available seat miles (ASM) traveled, revenue passenger miles (RPM) traveled, cargo revenue ton miles 

(RTM), fuel use, domestic and international yield, fuel burn rates, load factors, annual capacity per aircraft, 

and others. Many variables will now be disaggregated by region, body type, and domestic/international.

• Public transit model 

– Update to 2018 from 2016 for transit, intercity, and commuter rail

– Update to 2018 from 2016 for transit, intercity, and school bus

– Includes travel demands, fuel use, and efficiency data

• Other updates

– Update of vehicle miles traveled for light duty vehicles and motorcycles

AEO2021 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 17, 2020

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

6
Modeling updates

AEO2021 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 17, 2020 7
Light-duty vehicle modeling updates

Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule

– Update to final CAFE rule (3/2020) -- finalize CAFE and 

carbon dioxide emissions standards for model years 2021-

2026

– ZEV mandate removed (One National Program Rule, 

9/2019) -- withdraw California's waiver of preemption 

under Section 209 of the Clean Air Act

Update estimation to integrate or align tested fuel 

economy data with on-road fuel economy data

COVID-19 potential impacts

– E.g. travel demand, scrappage, VMT schedules

AEO2021 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 17, 2020

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

8
Public transit modeling updates

• Re-estimate coefficients for travel demand (PMT) equations

– Increased sensitivity of the model by changing macro inputs

• Update transit bus fuel choice to account for projected growth of electric and natural 

gas buses

• COVID-19 potential impacts

– Travel demands for public transit modes

AEO2021 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 17, 2020

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

9
Other modes modeling updates

• Class 2b-8 vehicles: Consider updating 

freight travel demands by vehicle type 

(e.g., parcel) in response to COVID-19

• Recreational boats: updated demand 

projection equation given new historical 

data

• Other COVID-19 potential impacts

AEO2021 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 17, 2020

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

10
Aviation modeling updates

• Re-estimate passenger and freight travel demand equations

• Revise fuel efficiency (i.e., fuel burn) methodology and stock model

• COVID-19 potential impacts

– Revise methodology and model estimation equations for projections of revenue passenger miles and load 

factors, as well as other demand metrics

AEO2021 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 17, 2020

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

11
Aviation modeling updates: demand projection equations

• The old model used the following RPM projection specification:

• Revised model specification from ICAO1:

• Additionally, ICAO’s RTM specification was implemented in tranair:

Presenter name, Presentation location, 

Presentation date

1ICAO 2019, Report on the Updated Long-Term Traffic Forecasts

12

RRRRMMyyyyyyyy = c + ββ1 ln�GGGGPPyyyyyyyy �

∆ ln RR RR_PPCCww ww ,dddd,yyyyyyyy = cc + ββ1∆ ln GGGG _PP ww ww ,dddd,yyyyyyyy

RR _PPCCyyyyyyyy

RR _PPCCyyyyyyyy −1

= cc � GGGG _PPCCyyyyyyyy

GGGG _PPCCyyyyyyyy −1

�

ββ1
Aviation modeling updates: fuel burn

Presenter name, Presentation location, 

Presentation date 13

Revenue passengermile demand

Boeing, regional

Gallons per payload 

ton-mile

Calculated, regional

Fuel use

RPM demand

Calculated, regional

Belly freight ton-mile 

demand

calculated, regional

Fleet age distribution

World Jet Inventory, regional

Fleet make/model composition

World Jet Inventory, regional

Seating density

World Jet Inventory, regional

RPMs per gallon

calculated, regional

Gallons per payload ton-mile, fullyloaded plane

U.S. BTS

Load factor

U.S. BTS, ICAO, regional

Freight ton-mile demand

Boeing, regional

Belly freight share of freight 

demand

U.S. BTS

Air traffic management 

efficiency

ICAO, regional

Travel demand Efficiency

Note: all regional variables here also tracked by domestic/international and body type
Aviation modeling updates: global stock model

Dedicated freight aircraft

1. If aircraft supply exceeds RTM demand, 

park aircraft (oldest first).

2. If RTM demand exceeds aircraft supply, four 

sequential options:

1. Unpark parked cargo aircraft (newest 

first)

2. Convert older parked passenger 

aircraft (oldest first)

3. Convert [even] older active passenger 

aircraft (oldest first)

4. Purchase new freighters

Presenter name, Presentation location, 

Presentation date 14

Passenger aircraft

1. If aircraft supply exceeds RPM demand, park 

aircraft (oldest first).

2. If RPM demand exceeds aircraft supply, two 

sequential options:

1. Un-park parked passenger aircraft (newest 

first)

2. Purchase new aircraft
Aviation modeling updates: stock model results

Presenter name, Presentation location, 

Presentation date 15
Aviation modeling: potential covid impacts

AEO2021 Transportation Working Group 

Meeting Washington, DC, September 17, 

2020 16

Metric ShorttermDetails Mid/LongtermDetails

Revenue passenger 

miles ▼▼▼ Travel bans; “dread” behavior; 

telework and videoconferencing ▼ “dread” behavior; telework and 

videoconferencing; 

Load factor ▼▼ -?-

Available seat miles 

(RPM capacity) ▼▼ Low load factors lead to smaller 

ASM hit ▼ “dread” behavior; telework and 

videoconferencing

Domestic share of

passenger demand ▲ Travel bans and other 

restrictions -?-

Cost of air travel ▼▲ Load factor caps; jet fuel price; 

supply/demand mismatch ▼▲ Additional crew time req’d for prescreening/cleaning; load factors? 

Fuel efficiency ▲ Older planes parked first ▼▲ Un-park planes, or retire and purchase 

new?

Revenue ton miles 

[freight] ▼ Belly freight capacity drop -?-
Discussion/questions

Caroline Campbell | phone: 202-586-0259

| email: caroline.campbell@eia.gov

Michael Dwyer | phone: 202-586-8406

| email: michael.dwyer@eia.gov

John Maples (lead) | phone: 202-586-1757 

| email: john.maples@eia.gov

Mark Schipper | phone: 202-586-1136

| email: mark.schipper@eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo

AEO2021 Transportation Working Group Meeting 

Washington, DC, September 17, 2020 17