U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Erin Boedecker, Buildings Analysis Team Leader

 Owen Comstock

 Behjat Hojjati

 Kevin Jarzomski

 Christopher Kramer

 David Peterson

 Steve Wade

 

July 23, 2012 | Washington, D.C.

AEO2013 Data Development & Modeling Projects

NEMS Buildings Sector Working Group Meeting
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Overview

2

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012

• Residential projects

• Commercial projects

• Projects for both sectors
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Residential – RECS 2009 update

3

• Incorporate characteristics estimates (already released)

– Equipment stocks, penetration, and saturation

– Housing stock

– Floorspace

• Incorporate end-use consumption estimates (still in progress)

– Revise Unit Energy Consumption (UEC) estimates 

– Total consumption already released (but not relevant for NEMS)

• Change model start year to 2009

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Residential – input file restructuring

4

• Reorganizing inputs along functional lines

– Combining inputs (e.g. heating equipment shares)

– Separating (e.g. “miscellaneous” inputs)

– Eliminating (e.g. retirement methodology)

• Renaming almost every file name

– All files start with ‘rs’ to avoid conflict with refining or renewables

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Residential – lighting submodule

5

• Revise input file

– Formerly split between code and parts of rmisc.txt

– Now in rsmlgt.txt

– Adding outdoor lighting

• Incorporate technology update from Navigant Consulting

– No general service incandescent bulbs after 2020

• Incorporate RECS characteristics data

• Update to DOE/EERE lighting market report 2010

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Residential – retirement methodology

6

• Revise or eliminate up to four input files

– rtekcl: equipment lifetimes

– rsstkeff: stock efficiency in each year

– rseff01: retired efficiency of base-year stock in each year

– rsret01: percent of base-year stock retired in each year

• Weibull decay rather than linear

– Current method uses straight-line decay

 between minimum and maximum 

 lifetime values (e.g. 7 and 26 years)

• Endogenous, not exogenous

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Linear (current)

Weibull 

(proposed)

portion of surviving refrigerators in each year

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Residential – other projects

7

• Re-evaluate housing decay rates

• Reconsider wood pricing and elasticity

• Annual updates

– ENERGY STAR homes (EPA)

– Heating fuel shares in new construction (Census)

– Square footage of new construction (Census)

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Commercial – technology update, building shell

8

• Update characterizations of lighting, ventilation, and 

refrigeration equipment

– Based on contracted report from Navigant Consulting, Inc.

– Equipment efficiencies, capital and retail costs, average life, typical capacities

– Vintages characterized: Installed base (2003, 2007), Standard, 2011, 2020, 

2030, 2035

• Utilize previous parametric analysis data from SAIC to 

possibly expand side case characterization of heating and 

cooling shell factors for new construction

– Models effects of differences in shell thermal characteristics on heating and 

cooling loads

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Commercial – update capacity factors

9

• Awaiting award of task to update commercial capacity factors 

for end-use equipment 

– Capacity factor: the ratio of actual annual equipment output to output if 

equipment were run 100% of the time at full capacity

– Space conditioning capacity factors currently developed from the ratio of 

average daily load to peak load for space heating and space cooling at various 

locations nationwide

• The averages for the cities in each census division are weighted by 

population to compute the capacity factors used by the CDM

– Lighting capacity factors vary by building type and are based upon the ratio of 

average hours of operation to total hours

– Capacity factors for remaining services derived by service and building type 

from the ratio of operating hours to total hours

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Commercial – input file restructuring

10

• Separating inputs along functional lines

– CMELs coefficients from CDM

– Lighting technology menu from KTEK

• Eliminating inputs that are unused

– Files to transfer historical consumption to other sectors

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Commercial – hurdle rates

11

• Hurdle rate: Premium + 10-year Treasury Note rate

• Update hurdle rates for Commercial customers

– Update to most recent Johnson Controls’ Institute for Building Efficiency Energy 

Efficiency Indicator reports indicating tolerance for return on investment (ROI) 

for energy efficiency

• Proportion of customers attributed to the 7 time-adjusted 

premium levels vary annually and by end-use

– Across the major end-use services (Heating, Cooling, Water heating, 

Ventilation, Cooking, Lighting, Refrigeration) 

– Different assumptions for years affected by ARRA spending

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Commercial – other projects

12

• Update inputs for data center consumption

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Buildings – other projects

13

• Weather projections

– Potentially revising long-term weather assumptions

– Consistency with STEO

• Reevaluate non-linear component of cooling adjustment

• Update energy consumption of Miscellaneous Electric Loads 

(MELs) based on updated TIAX report (if completed in time 

for AEO2013)

– Awaiting award of contract task

– Update current use and trends for previously covered uses

– Add new end uses as appropriate

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Buildings – other projects

14

• Annual updates

– Interconnection limitations (DSIRE)

– Weather data and forecasts (NOAA)

– Historical generation by and capacity of combined heat and power and 

renewable distributed generation systems (EIA- 860, IREC, AWEA)

• Photovoltaic system cost path

– Tracking the Sun IV (LBNL, 2011)

– Residential, Commercial, and Utility-Scale Photovoltaic (PV) System Prices in 

the United States: Current Drivers and Cost-Reduction Opportunities (NREL, 

2012)

– SunShot Vision Study (DOE, 2012)

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

We welcome your thoughts and suggestions

15

Erin Boedecker

Erin.Boedecker@eia.gov

202-586-4791

Behjat Hojjati

Behjat.Hojjati@eia.gov

202-586-1068

David Peterson

David.Peterson@eia.gov

202-586-5084

U.S. Energy Information Administration

www.eia.gov

Owen Comstock

Owen.Comstock@eia.gov

202-586-4752

Kevin Jarzomski

Kevin.Jarzomski@eia.gov

202-586-3208

Steve Wade

Steven.Wade@eia.gov

202-586-1678

Buildings Working Group 

Forrestal 2E-081 / July 23, 2012