U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2015

1st Coal Working Group

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES.

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS 

AND INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
Changes in release cycles for EIA’s AEO and IEO

2

• To focus more resources on rapidly 

changing energy markets and how 

they might evolve over the next few 

years, the U.S. Energy Information 

Administration is revising the 

schedule and approach for 

production of the International 

Energy Outlook (IEO) and the 

Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).

• Starting with IEO2013, which was 

released in July, 2013, EIA adopted 

a two-year production cycle for 

both the IEO and AEO.

• Under this approach, a full edition 

of the IEO and AEO will be 

produced in alternating years and 

an interim, shorter edition of each 

will completed in the “off” years.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

2014 2015

International 

Energy 

Outlook

Interim Edition will be 

released in mid 2014, focusing 

on the liquids projection, which 

is used as part of the AEO2014. 

Summary tables and a short 

analysis will be included. 

Full Edition will be released 

in the spring 2015

Annual 

Energy 

Outlook

Full Edition will be released 

in spring 2014, including 

analysis of energy issues and 

many alternative scenarios. 

Interim Edition will be 

released in late 2014 or early 

2015 and will only include the 

Reference, Low and High 

Economic Growth, and Low 

and High Oil Price cases. The 

shorter version will include 

tables for these cases and 

short discussions. 

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Scope of changes limited by Interim AEO 

• Data Updates

– Planned retirements, retrofits, repowering, uprates (nuclear), 

and new builds

– Historical data updates and overwrites; update to AEO base year

– Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) calibration

• Model Updates and Enhancements

– Limited to those generally needed to address changes in laws and 

regulations

– Complete integration of Coal Market Module AIMMS implementation 

into the production NEMS system

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C. 3

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Legislation and Regulations

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C. 4

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
AEO2014 legislation and regulation assumptions

5

• Current laws and regulations included in the AEO2014 Reference case

- Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)

- Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) with full compliance by 2016

- Regional Haze Rule plans are captured in annual reporting data only 

- California’s cap-and-trade program (AB 32) and the Northeast’s Regional Greenhouse 

Gas Initiative (RGGI) program

- Uncertainty with respect to CO2 policy addressed through a 3% higher cost of capital 

for new coal-fired power and coal-to-liquids plants and capital investment projects at 

existing coal-fired power plants

- State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

- Renewable energy sunset provisions as specified in law, e.g., for production tax credits 

for wind the “effective expiration date” is 2015 for plants under construction by the end 

of 2013

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Changes to the legislative and regulation 

assumptions in the AEO2015 Reference case (1)

6

• Updates to NEMS modeling of California SB1368 to remove firm 

contractual arrangements for coal plants upon expiration

– Prohibits CA utilities from entering into long-term financial commitments for 

base load generation, unless it complies with the CO2 emissions performance 

standard. The CO2 emissions level must be equal, or below the emissions 

performance standard of 1,100 lbs. per megawatt-hour (MWh).

– EIA modeling approach 

• Reduce firm imports to represent expiration of contracts with the Four Corners, 

Navajo, Reid Gardner, San Juan, and Boardman plants

• Adjust carbon emission rate for firm imports in accordance with the expiration of 

contracts

• Retire Intermountain plant in 2025 in response to announcement by Los Angeles 

Department of Water and Power. Announcement has not been officially reported to 

EIA and decision may be reconsidered and plant could be sold or converted to natural 

gas instead.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Changes to the legislative and regulation 

assumptions in the AEO2015 Reference case (2)

7

• Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) to replace Clean Air Interstate 

Rule (CAIR) in AEO2015 if reinstated timely to EIA development schedule

– Requires states to reduce emissions that contribute to ozone and fine particle pollution 

in other states

– U.S. Supreme Court upheld EPA’s approach to CSAPR on April 29, 2014 

– EPA filed to lift stay on CSAPR on June 26, 2014

– Appears likely that the rule will be reinstated timely during the AEO2015 cycle

– Previously incorporated in AEO2012 cycle prior to D.C. Circuit stay in August 2012

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Changes to the legislative and regulation 

assumptions in the AEO2015 Reference case (3)

8

• EPA’s regional haze program is aimed at protecting national parks 

through implementation of Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART) 

– Requires states to lower NOx and SO2 emissions over time through state 

implementation plans (SIPs) or federal implementation plans (FIPs)

– Implementation to occur between 2014 and 2018

– Same as AEO2014 – retrofits or retirements associated with finalized plans captured in 

reporting data (assuming generating unit data updates are completed)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Monitoring other legislative and regulatory actions not 

addressed in the AEO2014 Reference case

9

• EPA’s CO2 New and Existing Source Performance Standards 

per section 111(b) and 111(d) of the Clean Air Act, respectively

• EPA’s cooling water intake regulations per section 316(b) of 

the Clean Water Act

• EPA’s coal effluent guidelines and coal combustion residuals

• California post-2020 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions target

• EPA’s tailoring rule for biomass carbon emissions

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
CAA 111(b) New Source Performance Standards

• Proposed rule

– Imposes GHG controls on new generation units. 

– Limits for new coal plants were designed with the assumption that these plants will be built 

with CCS technologies, which will be capable of capturing a portion of the CO2 emitted 

from the new unit

– EPA proposed two standards for natural gas-fired stationary combustion units, depending 

on size

– The proposed limits are based on the performance of modern natural gas combined cycle 

(NGCC) units. 

• Current status

– Expected to be finalized January, 2015

• EIA modeling approach

– Rule will not be final during the AEO2015 cycle

– Anticipated for inclusion in AEO2016

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C. 10

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
CAA 111(d) Existing Source GHG Controls

• Proposed rule

– Cut power sector emissions 30% by 2030

– Proposed rule calls for state-specific goals for reduced emissions, where each state can 

choose an approach appropriate to their situation

– Proposed rule provides guidelines in the form of four building blocks that could be used to 

achieve the reductions, including heat-rate improvements, re-dispatch towards lower 

emitting resources (i.e. coal to natural gas), additions of low and zero-carbon resources, 

and increased use of demand side resources

• Current status

– Expected to be finalized in June 2015

• EIA modeling approach

– Rule not expected to be finalized until the AEO2016 cycle at the earliest

– Evaluating approaches to modeling proposed rules

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C. 11

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
CWA 316(b): Cooling Water Intake Structures

• Rule 

– Sets impingement controls for all facilities with design intake flow of at least 2 million 

gallons per day (MGD), and requires examination of entrainment controls for facilities with 

design intake flow of at least 125 MGD

– Final rule requires facilities having >125 MGD design intake flow to conduct studies to help 

permitting authorities determine what, if any, entrainment controls are needed

• Current status

– Final rule signed on May 19, 2014; still in pre-publication; supporting technical documents 

not yet released

• EIA modeling approach

– To be implemented in AEO2016 as technical documents necessary for determining retrofit 

costs for the final rule are not yet available

– ‘Case-by-case’ nature of entrainment controls for the largest facilities difficult to model

– Actively evaluating EIA data and 2011 EPA documents to determine whether impingement 

control costs can be estimated – costs expected to be small relative to other retrofit costs

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C. 12

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal Combustion Residual Proposed Rule

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C. 13

• EPA is evaluating two regulatory options

– Under the first proposal, residuals would be considered special wastes subject to regulation 

under subtitle C of RCRA when destined for disposal in landfills or surface impoundments, 

requiring measures intended to phase out the wet handling of residuals as well as existing 

surface impoundments

– Under the second proposal, residuals would be regulated under subtitle D of RCRA as nonhazardous wastes, requiring liners at existing impoundments, and introduce an incentive to 

close these impoundments and transition to safer landfills which store coal ash in dry form

• Current status

– Final Rule pending EPA review of supplemental data

– Final Rule scheduled for December 19, 2014 under consent decree 

• EIA modeling approach

– Rule will not be final during the AEO2015 cycle

– Anticipated for inclusion in AEO2016

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Effluent Limitation Guidelines

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C. 14

• EPA is evaluating four regulatory options

– Four options are being considered as part of the rulemaking, which would establish new or 

additional requirements for wastewater streams from the following processes and 

byproducts associated with steam electric power generation: flue gas desulfurization, fly 

ash, bottom ash, flue gas mercury control, and gasification of fuels such as coal and 

petroleum coke

• Current status

– Proposed rule published on June 7, 2013 

– Final Rule scheduled for September 30, 2015 under consent decree 

• EIA modeling approach

– Rule will not be final during the AEO2015 cycle

– May be included in the AEO2016 cycle if published with documentation timely

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
California Post-2020 GHG Emissions Target

• Executive Order 

– EO-S-3-05 (2005) requires California to reduce its emissions to 20% of 2020 levels by 2050

– This executive order remains in effect and requires no legislative action

• Current status

– There is considerable uncertainty about how California will achieve the targets of EO-S-3-05 

(or if they are feasible)

– Guidelines for meeting post-2020 targets are expected in 2017

• EIA modeling approach

– Wait for additional policy certainty from the 2017 guidelines before attempting to model

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C. 15

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Tailoring Rule for Biomass Carbon Emissions

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C. 16

• Proposed rule

– EPA released proposed rules for carbon emission limits for new sources in 2011

– At that time, they were not ready to propose how to handle emissions from biomass 

resources

• Literature was conflicting on extent to which biomass carbon could be considered “net 

zero”, “net positive”, or even “net negative”

– Subsequent court rulings said EPA couldn’t wait 3-years

• Current status

– EPA’s proposed 3-year study period ends in July 2014

– Indications are that the rule is close to ready for release

• EIA modeling approach

– Could impact how EIA models biomass’ role in GHG policy cases

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Review of AEO2014 Reference Case

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C. 17

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Key results for the AEO2014 Reference case

18

• Coal is no longer the leading fuel for U.S. electricity generation in 

2040. Coal’s share of total generation decreases over time to 32% 

in 2040 from 37% in 2012.

• Coal producers in the Interior region gain share while Appalachia 

loses share of total U.S. coal production. From 2012 to 2040, the 

Appalachian region's share of total coal production (on a Btu basis) 

falls from about 36% to 29%.

• Much of the 51 GW of coal-fired capacity retirements (33 GW 

planned) occur by 2016 largely because of the combination of 

MATS, relatively low natural gas prices, and relatively low electricity 

demand.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Key results for the AEO2014 Reference case

19

• Expanding development of shale gas resources drives increased 

production and competitive prices for natural gas

• A short-term recovery for coal occurs followed by a decline in 

consumption in 2015 and 2016 as MATS takes effect, resulting in a 

net gain of 26 million tons for coal in 2016 compared to 2012. After 

2016, coal consumption rises, peaking in 2029 with a small decline 

thereafter. 

• 2.6 GW of coal capacity additions (2.2 GW planned)

• Delivered coal prices increase gradually through 2040 at an 

average rate of 0.9% per year (on a per ton basis) due to declining 

coal mine productivity and slightly higher transportation costs

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
U.S. electricity net generation

trillion kilowatthours

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

13%

Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon 

options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation 

30%

19%

37%

12%

1%

Nuclear

Oil and other liquids

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables

2012 History Projections

16%

16%

32%

35%

<1%

1993

11%

13%

19%

53%

4%

30%

17%

37%

15%

1%

2025 2040

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Electricity sales have decreased in 5 of the last 6 years; prior to 

2008, sales declined only twice in 58 years 

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

billion kilowatthours

Source: Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923 and predecessor forms.

21

Year over year generation fell 

once in 50 years

Year over year 

generation fallen 

five times since 2008

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 

2012 to 2040

22

U.S. electricity use

percent growth (3-year rolling average)

Projections

History 2012

Period Annual Growth__

Electricity use GDP

1950s 9.8 4.1

1960s 7.3 4.4

1970s 4.7 3.2

1980s 2.9 3.0

1990s 2.4 3.2

2000-2012 0.7 1.8

2013-2040 0.9 2.4

Gross domestic product

Electricity use

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Delivered prices of natural gas and coal to the electric power sector in the 

Reference case

0

5

10

15

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

coal

average delivered fuel prices to electric power 

plants, 2012 dollars per million Btu

23

0

20

40

60

80

2005 2015 2025 2035

History Projections

2012 2012 dollars per megawatthour

Power generation fuel costs

coal steam

natural gas combined cycle

natural gas

Short Term Energy Outlook

July 2014

Source: AEO2014 Reference case (April 2014).

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Shale gas leads U.S. production growth

24

U.S. dry natural gas production

trillion cubic feet

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Associated with oil

Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Shale gas

Alaska Non-associated offshore

Non-associated onshore

History 2012 Projections

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 

2012 and 2040

25

renewable generation

billion kilowatthours per year

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Conventional 

Hydropower

Wind

Solar

Geothermal

Municipal waste

Biomass

Industrial CHP

Power sector

History 2012 Projections

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
26

Average capacity utilization of natural gas combined cycle and 

coal generating capacity, 2008-2040

percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Natural Gas

Coal

History 2012 Projections

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2040

27

billion kilowatthours

Coal

Petroleum

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Renewables

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Note: Includes generation from plants in both the electric power and end-use sectors.

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review; 

Projections: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014).

History 2012 Projections

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

Short Term Energy Outlook

July 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal consumption by sector, 1970-2040

28

million short tons

Electricity

Other

Total

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2012 Projections

Note: Other includes coke plants, other industrial, and commercial/institutional.

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

Short Term Energy Outlook

July 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
U.S. Coal Consumption, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2014

29

Source: 2012-2013: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review;

2014-2015: STEO (July 2014)

-108.9

34.8 26.3

-30.1

-4.1

0.4 0.0

-0.6 -0.4

0.7

-0.5

3.5

-120

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

2012 2013 2014 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

million short tons (MMst)

Electric power (right axis) Retail and general industry (right axis)

Coke plants (right axis) Total consumption (left axis)

Total Consumption forecast (left axis)

annual change (MMst)

Total Consumption 

(MMST)

2012 889

2013 925

2014 951

2015 924

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Average levelized electricity costs for new power plants, excluding subsidies, 

in the Reference case, 2020 and 2040

30

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Natural gas

combined cycle

Wind

Advanced nuclear

Conventional Coal

Coal IGCC

Natural gas

combined cycle

Wind

Advanced nuclear

Conventional Coal

Coal IGCC

new power plant costs, 2012 cents per kilowatthour

Incremental

transmission

costs

Fixed

costs

Variable costs,

Capital costs including fuel

2040

2020

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Gas-fueled units account for most projected capacity additions 

in the AEO2014 Reference case

31

U.S. electricity generation capacity additions

gigawatts

Source: Form EIA-860 & EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Other Renewables

Solar

Wind

Oil and Natural Gas

Nuclear

Hydro / Other

Coal

History Projected

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
32

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860 “Annual Electric Generator Report”

Coal-fired capacity additions: recent completions and units 

under construction (megawatts)

FACILITY 

CODE PLANT NAME GENERATOR ID STATE

PLANT 

TYPE

ENERGY 

SOURCE

START 

YEAR

START 

MONTH

SUMMER 

CAPABILITY

56611 Sandy Creek Energy Station S01 TX PC SUB 2013 5 937

1004 Edwardsport ST,CT1,CT2 IN IGCC BIT 2013 6 571

Included as existing capacity for 2013 in AEO2015: 1,507

57037 Kemper County IGCC Project 1A,1B,1C MS IGCC LIG 2014 8 522

56786 Spiritwood 1 ND PC LIG 2014 11 62

Included as planned capacity additions in AEO2015: 584

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
33

Coal-Fired Capacity Reported as Planned but Not Yet Under 

Construction on the Form EIA-860 (megawatts)

FACILITY 

CODE PLANT NAME

GENERATOR 

ID STATE

PLANT 

TYPE

ENERGY 

SOURCE

START 

YEAR

START 

MONTH

SUMMER 

CAPABILITY

56453 Robinson Power Company LLC 1 PA PC BIT 2016 4 132

56452 Medicine Bow Fuel & Power LLC 1 WY CTL BIT 2016 12 350

55360 Two Elk Generating Station GEN1 WY PC WC 2016 12 275

56675 Plant Washington MAIN GA PC SUB 2018 4 850

56454 Taylorville Energy Center 1 IL IGCC BIT 2018 6 533

Total Capacity 2,140

Note: Because these units are reported as not yet under construction on the Form EIA-860, these units are not

included as planned capacity additions in the AEO2015. 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860 “Annual Electric Generator Report”

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal accounts for more than half of the projected capacity 

retirements in the AEO2014 Reference case

34

U.S. electricity generation capacity retirements

gigawatts

Source: Form EIA-860 and AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014) 

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Renewables/Other

Nuclear

Petroleum

Natural Gas

Coal

History Projections

 0.9

 4.8

 30.9

 9.4

 50.8

Cumulative 

Totals:

2013-2040

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Electric net summer generating capacity retirements by fuel, 

1982-2040

35

gigawatts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1982-1990 1991-2000 2001-2012 2013-2020 2021-2040

Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Nuclear Renewable/Other

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Inventory of Power Plants (various issues), 

Electric Power Annual (various issues), and Form EIA-860, “Annual Electric Generator Report” data files

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/capacity/; Projections: Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference Case.

History Projections

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Reported Net Summer Coal Capacity Retirements By Year 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Early 

Release 

2013 Data 

gigawatts

AEO2014: 33 GW 

AEO2015: 28 GW*

Total Reported Coal Capacity Retirements 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C. 36

*Reported capacity retirements for the AEO2015 are preliminary and subject to change.

Source: AEO2014: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014); and AEO2015: Form EIA-860, 'Annual Electric 

Generator Report;‘ and Form EIA-860M, 'Monthly Update to the Annual Electric Generator Report.'

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
37

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014) 

*MATS compliance assumed to begin **Excludes natural gas and oil CC /CT generating capacity in the end-use sectors

Electric Net Summer Generating Capacity by Fuel, 2008-2040 

(gigawatts)

Fuel 2008 2011 2012 2015 2016* 2020 2030 2040

Coal 311 316 310 290 266 263 262 262

 Electric Power Sector 308 313 307 286 263 259 258 258

 End-Use Sectors 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3

Natural Gas & Oil: CC/CT 320 343 352 364 373 381 470 566

Other Natural Gas & Oil 130 120 118 113 113 108 105 118

Nuclear Power 101 101 102 99 100 98 98 102

Renewable Sources 117 143 159 189 192 195 208 242

Other (includes pumped 

storage)

25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26

Total 1004 1049 1066 1081 1070 1069 1168 1316

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
38

Cumulative SO2 scrubber and DSI retrofits, 2013-2040

gigawatts

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

DSI**

SO2 Scrubbers

2016*

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

*MATS compliance assumed to begin; **DSI: Dry Sorbent Injection 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Electricity Sector Net Summer Generating Capacity by SO2

Control Type and Region, 2012 and 2020 in AEO2014

39

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

0

50

100

150

2012 2020

Northeast

gigawatts

0

50

100

150

2012 2020

Midwest

gigawatts

0

50

100

150

2012 2020

South

gigawatts

0

50

100

150

2012 2020

West

gigawatts

111

196

212

45

3

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2020

U.S. total

gigawatts

uncontrolled

scrubbed

dry sorbent

injection

new capacity

Note: Scrubbed capacity includes 

capacity equipped with flue gas 

desulfurization (FGD) equipment and 

coal plants employing integrated 

gasification combined (IGCC) cycle or 

circulating fluidized bed (CFB) 

combustion technologies.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
40

Coal demand regions

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
41

Net summer coal-fired generating capacity in the electric power 

sector by coal demand region, 2012 and 2040

gigawatts

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

01NE (CT,MA,ME,NH,RI,VT)

02YP (NY,PA,NJ)

03S1 (WV,MD,DC,DE)

04S2 (VA,NC,SC)

05GF (GA,FL)

06OH (OH)

07EN (IN,IL,MI,WI)

08KT (KY,TN)

09AM (AL,MS)

10C1 (MN,ND,SD)

11C2 (IA,NE,MO,KS)

12WS (TX,LA,OK,AR)

13MT (MT,WY,ID)

14CU (CO,UT,NV)

15ZN (AZ,NM)

16PC (AK,HI,WA,OR,CA)

2012

2040

U.S. Total 

2012: 307

2040: 258

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
42

Cumulative net summer coal-fired capacity retirements by coal 

demand region, 2013-2040

gigawatts

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

01NE (CT,MA,ME,NH,RI,VT)

02YP (NY,PA,NJ)

03S1 (WV,MD,DC,DE)

04S2 (VA,NC,SC)

05GF (GA,FL)

06OH (OH)

07EN (IN,IL,MI,WI)

08KT (KY,TN)

09AM (AL,MS)

10C1 (MN,ND,SD)

11C2 (IA,NE,MO,KS)

12WS (TX,LA,OK,AR)

13MT (MT,WY,ID)

14CU (CO,UT,NV)

15ZN (AZ,NM)

16PC (AK,HI,WA,OR,CA)

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
U.S. Coal Production, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2014

43

Source: 2012-2013: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review;

2014-2015: STEO (July 2014)

-44.9

-13.0

4.1 2.6

-43.1

-22.5

15.1

-8.0

8.8 3.1 7.7

-3.8

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

2012 2013 2014 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

million short tons (MMst)

Western region (right axis) Appalachian region (right axis)

Interior region (right axis) Total production (left axis)

Production forecast (left axis)

annual change (MMst)

Total Production 

(MMST)

2012 1,016

2013 984

2014 1,011

2015 1,002

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal production by region, 1970-2040

44

million short tons

Appalachia

Interior

Western

Total U.S.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2012 Projections

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

Short Term Energy Outlook

July 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
-1.0% +0.1%

-1.3%

-3.4%

-1.0%

-2.5%

-1.7%*

-1.3%

U.S. Total: -1.2%

Average annual growth in coal mining labor productivity for 

selected supply regions (percent)

45

Source: 2012 Production Shares : Mine Safety and Health Administration, Form 7000-2, “Quarterly Mine and Employment and Coal Production Report;”

* Includes production from all mines in 

 Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.

2012 Production Share

3% to 5%

12% to 15%

38%

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal production, AEO2014 in 2040 (vs. 2012) 

(million short tons)

46

5 (13)

62

31 (28)

1 (2)

228 (130)

151 (126)

80 (148)

17 (19)

61 (48)

35 (30)

26 (46)

422 (388)*

5 (2)** 60 (36)

U.S. Total: 

1,121 (1,016)

Source: 2012: Mine Safety and Health Administration, Form 7000-2, “Quarterly Mine and Employment and Coal

Production Report;” 2040: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014).

* Includes production from all mines in 

Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.

** Includes production from mines in both 

Alaska and Washington.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Average annual growth in coal mining labor 

productivity for selected supply regions (percent)

47

Coal Supply Region 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2012 2005-2012 2011-2012 2012-2040

Northern Appalachia 5.4 5.5 -2.7 -3.8 -4.9 -1.3

Central Appalachia 7.3 4.4 -5.9 -5.9 -3.8 -3.4

Eastern Interior 4.8 3.7 -0.8 -0.1 6.1 0.1

Gulf Lignite 2.6 2.4 -2.8 -4.5 -4.2 -1.0

Dakota Lignite 6.0 1.0 -3.5 -5.2 -4.8 -1.0

Western Montana 4.6 2.0 -3.7 -6.6 -11.7 -1.3

WY, Northern Powder 

River Basin 7.5 3.2 -3.2 -5.0 -5.7 -1.7

WY, Southern Powder 

River Basin 7.2 4.9 -3.0 -4.1 -6.4 -1.7

Rocky Mountain 7.8 5.5 -2.7 -4.4 3.5 -2.5

U.S. Average 7.1 6.2 -2.4 -2.9 -0.2 -1.2

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report; and Mine Safety and Health 

Administration, Form 7000-2, “Quarterly Mine and Employment and Coal Production Report;” 

Projections: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014).

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Appalachian coal production, 1970-2040

48

million short tons

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Northern Appalachia

Central Appalachia

Southern Appalachia

Total Appalachia

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014) 

Except for Appalachian total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

History 2012 Projections

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

Short Term Energy Outlook

July 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Interior coal production, 1970-2040

49

million short tons

Total Interior 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Eastern Interior

Gulf Lignite

Western Interior

History 2012 Projections

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

Except for Interior total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

Short Term Energy Outlook

July 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Western coal production, 1970-2040

50

million short tons

Total Western

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Wyoming PRB

Other West

History 2012 Projections

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

Except for Western total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

Short Term Energy Outlook

July 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Average minemouth coal prices by region, 1980-2040

51

2012 dollars per short ton

Appalachia

Interior

West

U.S. Average

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2012 Projections

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
U.S. Coal Exports, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2014

52

Source: 2012-2013: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review;

2014-2015: STEO (July 2014)

0.4

-4.2 -5.1

-8.5

18.3

-3.9

-13.9

4.6

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

million short tons (MMst)

Metallurgical exports (right axis) Steam exports (right axis)

Total exports (left axis) Total exports forecast (left axis)

annual change (MMst)

Monthly record for exports (13.6 MMst)

Total Exports 

(MMST)

2012 125.7

2013 117.7

2014 98.7

2015 94.8

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
U.S. Coal Exports, 1995-2040

53

million short tons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coking

Steam

Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Quarterly Coal Report; 

Projections: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014).

History Projections

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal exports by major supply region, 2010-2040

54

million short tons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Western

Appalachia

U.S. Total

Source: 2010-2011: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Distribution Report;

2012-2040: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014).

Interior

2012

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

Short Term Energy Outlook

July 2014

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Current Major North American Coal Export Terminals with 

annual capacity and 2013 export volumes (million short tons)

55

Source: Port Capacities: Wood Mackenzie; U.S. Exports: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Quarterly 

Coal Report; Vancouver Exports: Port of Vancouver 2013 Statistics Overview; Ridley Exports: Ridley Terminal 

2013 Financial Report 

Vancouver

Baltimore

Norfolk

Mobile

Houston New Orleans

Ridley

Port Capacity

2013 

Exports

Baltimore 23 15.1

Norfolk 79 49.7

Mobile 18 12.6

New Orleans 63 19.8

Houston 16 3.3

Vancouver 54 42.1

Ridley 13 13.0

Total 266 155.6

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Other North American Coal Export Terminals & Proposed Capacity 

Expansions (million short tons)

56

Source: Port Capacities: Wood Mackenzie; Capacity Expansion: Wood Mackenzie, Ridley Terminal website, 

Ambre Energy website, Gateway Pacific Terminal website, Port of Vancouver website, SNL Energy.

Vancouver

Baltimore

Norfolk

Mobile

Houston New Orleans

Ridley

Charleston

Corpus Christi

Lazaro Cardenas

Altamira

San Francisco

Los Angeles

Guaymas

Oregon

Washington Port Capacity

Capacity 

Expansion

Baltimore 23 0

Norfolk 79 0

Charleston 2 8

Mobile 18 9

New Orleans 63 36

Houston 16 18

Corpus Christi 2 0

Altamira 4 0

Lazaro Cardenas 7 0

Guyamas 7 26

Los Angeles 3 0

San Francisco 1 3

Oregon 0 52

Washington 0 48

Vancouver 54 11

Ridley 13 13

Total 291 225

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
EIA Data Browsers and Energy Mapping System

57

Electricity Data Browser - http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/

Coal Data Browser (Beta) - http://www.eia.gov/beta/coal/data/browser/

Nuclear Outage Browser (Beta) - http://www.eia.gov/beta/outages/

Energy Mapping System - http://www.eia.gov/state/maps.cfm

Short-Term Energy Outlook - http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/query/

Annual Energy Outlook - http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/

International Energy Outlook - http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
58

For more information

greg.adams@eia.gov, (202) 586-7343

michael.mellish@eia.gov, (202) 586-2136

diane.kearney@eia.gov, (202) 586-2415

ayaka.jones@eia.gov, (202) 586-0998

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

EIA Information Center

InfoCtr@eia.gov

Our average response time is within three 

business days.

(202) 586-8800

24-hour automated information line about EIA 

and frequently asked questions.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Assessing Uncertainty:

Accelerated Coal and Nuclear 

Retirement Side Cases

59

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Accelerated power plant retirements and nuclear side case assumptions

60

• Accelerated Coal Retirements case

– Starts from AEO2014 High Coal Cost case, with coal prices 68% above Reference case in 2040

– Annual O&M increase of 3% in real terms from 2012 to 2040, compared to no increase in the 

Reference case 

• Accelerated Nuclear Retirements case

– No subsequent license renewals for nuclear units past 60 years compared to the Reference case 

assumption that license renewals allow units to operate beyond 60 years

– Annual O&M increase of 3% in real terms from 2012 to 2040, compared to no increase in the 

Reference case 

• Accelerated Coal and Nuclear Retirements case

– Combines assumptions from the previous two cases

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Rising costs for coal lead to 60 GW of additional retirements in the Accelerated 

Coal Retirement case, while 37 GW of additional nuclear capacity would occur 

between 2030 and 2040 if licenses are not extended beyond 60 years

61

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Reference Accelerated Nuclear

Retirements

Accelerated Coal

Retirements

Accelerated Coal and

Nuclear Retirements

cumulative capacity additions

gigawatts

*Excludes retirements of natural gas and oil CC /CT capacity in the end-use sectors

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 National Energy Modeling System runs REF2014.D102413A,

LOWNUC14.D012314B, HCCSTOM.D012314A, and HCLONUC.D012314A

Renewables

Coal

Natural gas & 

Oil: CC and CT*

Nuclear

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

Natural gas & 

Oil: Other

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Natural gas and renewables capacity additions are expected to fill the void 

left by accelerated coal and nuclear retirements through 2040

62

0

100

200

300

400

500

Reference Accelerated Nuclear

Retirements

Accelerated Coal

Retirements

Accelerated Coal and

Nuclear Retirements

cumulative capacity additions

gigawatts

Renewables

Coal

Natural gas

Nuclear

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

Reference Case

Natural Gas 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 National Energy Modeling System runs REF2014.D102413A,

LOWNUC14.D012314B, HCCSTOM.D012314A, and HCLONUC.D012314A

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Natural gas and renewables generation share increases through 2040 in accelerated 

retirement cases but overall electricity demand decreases slightly due to higher 

natural gas prices 

63

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Reference Accelerated Nuclear

Retirements

Accelerated Coal

Retirements

Accelerated Coal and

Nuclear Retirements

net electricity generation

billion kilowatt-hours

Petroleum

Renewables

Coal

Natural gas

Nuclear

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

Reference Case

Natural Gas 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 National Energy Modeling System runs REF2014.D102413A,

LOWNUC14.D012314B, HCCSTOM.D012314A, and HCLONUC.D012314A

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Assessing Uncertainty:

CO2 Policy Side Cases

64

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
CO2 policy side case assumptions

65

• Greenhouse Gas $10 case (GHG 10)

– CO2 fee of $10 per metric ton starting in 2015 

– Increasing by 5% in real terms to $34 per metric ton CO2 by 2040

– Results in an approximately 35% reduction in CO2 emissions compared to the 

Reference case

• Greenhouse Gas $25 case (GHG 25)

– CO2 fee of $25 per metric ton starting in 2015 

– Increasing by 5% in real terms to $85 per metric ton CO2 by 2040

– Results in an approximately 80% reduction in CO2 emissions compared to the 

Reference case

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Average levelized electricity costs for new power plants, excluding subsidies, 

in the Reference case, 2020 and 2040

66

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Advanced nuclear

NGCC

NGCC w/CCS

Coal IGCC

Coal IGCC w/CCS

Advanced nuclear

NGCC

NGCC w/CCS

Coal IGCC

Coal IGCC w/CCS

new power plant costs, 2012 cents per kilowatthour

Incremental

transmission

costs

Fixed

costs

Variable costs,

Capital costs including fuel

2040

2020

Source: AEO2014 Reference Case (April 2014)

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Average levelized electricity costs for new power plants, excluding subsidies, 

in the GHG 25 case, 2020 and 2040

67

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Advanced nuclear

NGCC

NGCC w/CCS

Coal IGCC

Coal IGCC w/CCS

Advanced nuclear

NGCC

NGCC w/CCS

Coal IGCC

Coal IGCC w/CCS

new power plant costs, 2012 cents per kilowatthour

Incremental

transmission

costs

Fixed

costs

Variable costs,

Capital costs including fuel*

2040

2020

*Fuel cost includes CO2 fee.

Source: AEO2014 GHG 25 Case (April 2014). 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Generating capacity additions and retirements in reference and carbon 

dioxide allowance fee side cases (cumulative through 2040)

68

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Reference $10 CO2 Allowance Fee $25 CO2 Allowance Fee

Coal additions Combined cycle additions

Other gas and oil additions Nuclear additions

Renewables additions Coal retirements

Combined cycle retirements Other gas and oil retirements

Nuclear retirements Renew/Other retirements

gigawatts

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 National Energy Modeling System runs REF2014.D102413A,

CO2FEE10.D011614A, and CO2FEE25.D011614A

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
69

Changing electricity generation mix in Reference case and carbon 

dioxide fee allowance side cases

U.S. electricity net generation

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 2010 2025 2040

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 2010 2025 2040

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 2010 2025 2040

2014 Reference Case

2012

Natural gas

$10 CO2 Allowance Fee Case

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

34%

24%

22%

19%

Natural gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

34%

27%

37%

1%

30%

12%

19%

37%

Natural gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

35%

16%

16%

32%

trillion kWh 2012 $/ton

$25 CO2 Allowance Fee Case

trillion kWh 2012 $/ton

Petroleum and other

CO2 fee

2012 $/ton

CO2 fee

2012 $/ton

trillion kWh

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 National Energy Modeling System runs REF2014.D102413A,

CO2FEE10.D011614A, and CO2FEE25.D011614A

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Carbon dioxide emissions from the electric power sector in the GHG cases 

compared to the Reference case

70

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

$10 CO2 Allowance Fee

$25 CO2 Allowance Fee

Reference

carbon dioxide emissions

million metric tons

History 2012 Projections

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Assessing Uncertainty:

Other Side Cases

71

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
72

AEO2014

Reference

Low 

Economic 

Growth

High 

Economic 

Growth

Low Coal 

Cost

High Coal 

Cost

High Oil and 

Gas 

Resource

Low Oil and 

Gas 

Resource

GHG10

(CO2 fee of 

$10 in 2015 

increasing to 

$34 in 2040)

GHG25

(CO2 fee of 

$25 in 2015 

increasing to 

$85 in 2040)

GDP growth (avg. 

annual change from 

2012)

2.4% 1.9% 2.8%

Electricity demand

(avg. annual change 

from 2012)

0.9% 0.6% 1.2%

Delivered natural gas 

price to the electricity 

sector, 2040 (2012 

dollars per million Btu)

$8.16 $5.17 $10.82 $9.57* $12.38*

Delivered coal price 

to the electricity 

sector , 2040 (2012 

dollars per million Btu)

$3.19 $1.89 $5.36 $6.08* $10.27*

Minemouth coal 

price, 2040 (2012

dollars per short ton)

$59.16 $32.29 $113.47

Western coal 

transportation rates 

(percent change from 

2012, constant dollar 

basis)

-0.4% -25% 25%

Coal mining 

productivity (avg. 

annual change from 

2012)

-1.2% 1.0% -4.0%

Coal with CCS in 

power sector, 2040 

(gigawatts)

0.9 8.5 3.9

NGCC with CCS in 

power sector, 2040 

(gigawatts)

0.3 13.2 67.2

Key differences between alternate cases

*Includes CO2 fee 

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
U.S. Coal Production, 2020 and 2040

73

million short tons

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

GHG10

High Oil and Gas Resource

High Coal 

Cost

Low Oil and Gas Resource

Reference

Low Coal Cost

2012 2020 2040

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 National Energy Modeling System runs 

REF2014.D102413A, LCCST14.D120413A, HCCST14.D120413A, HIGHRESOURCE.D112913B, LOWRESOURCE.D112913A, 

and CO2FEE10.D011614A.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Coal production by region, 2040

74

Million short tons

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 Reference Low Coal

Cost

High Coal

Cost

High Oil and

Gas Resource

Low Oil and

Gas Resource

GHG 10

West

Appalachia

Interior

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 National Energy Modeling System runs 

REF2014.D102413A, LCCST14.D120413A, HCCST14.D120413A, HIGHRESOURCE.D112913B, LOWRESOURCE.D112913A, 

and CO2FEE10.D011614A.

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
2040 electricity generation shares

75

percent

37% 32% 33% 31% 34%

26% 27%

35% 34%

19%

1%

30% 35% 34% 35% 34%

39% 44% 24%

34%

34%

34%

19% 16% 16% 16% 15% 16%

14%

19%

15%

22%

37%

12% 16% 16% 18% 16% 18% 14% 21% 16% 24% 27%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Higher / Lower 

Electricity 

Demand

Higher / Lower 

Coal Prices

Higher / Lower 

Natural Gas 

Prices

GHG Cases

Renewables 

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Coal

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 National Energy Modeling System runs REF2014.D102413A,

LOWMACRO.D112913A, HIGHMACRO.D112913A, LCCST14.D120413A, HCCST14.D120413A, HIGHRESOURCE.D112913B,

LOWRESOURCE.D112913A, NOGHGCONCERN.D120413A, CO2FEE10.D011614A, and CO2FEE25.D011614A

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Cumulative coal-fired capacity retirements, 2012-2040

76

gigawatts

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Reference Low

Economic

Growth

High

Economic

Growth

Low Coal

Cost

High Coal

Cost

High Oil

and Gas

Resource

Low Oil

and Gas

Resource

No GHG

Concern

GHG 10 GHG 25

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 National Energy Modeling System runs REF2014.D102413A,

LOWMACRO.D112913A, HIGHMACRO.D112913A, LCCST14.D120413A, HCCST14.D120413A, HIGHRESOURCE.D112913B,

LOWRESOURCE.D112913A, NOGHGCONCERN.D120413A, CO2FEE10.D011614A, and CO2FEE25.D011614A

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 
Cumulative coal-fired capacity additions, 2012-2040

77

gigawatts

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Reference Low

Economic

Growth

High

Economic

Growth

Low Coal

Cost

High Coal

Cost

High Oil

and Gas

Resource

Low Oil

and Gas

Resource

No GHG

Concern

GHG 10 GHG 25

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 National Energy Modeling System runs REF2014.D102413A,

LOWMACRO.D112913A, HIGHMACRO.D112913A, LCCST14.D120413A, HCCST14.D120413A, HIGHRESOURCE.D112913B,

LOWRESOURCE.D112913A, NOGHGCONCERN.D120413A, CO2FEE10.D011614A, and CO2FEE25.D011614A

Coal and Uranium Analysis Team 

July 30, 2014 | Washington, D.C.

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS AEO2015 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS AND 

INPUTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.