U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Buildings Sector Working Group

Erin Boedecker, Buildings Analysis Team Leader

 Owen Comstock

 Behjat Hojjati

 Kevin Jarzomski

 David Peterson

 Steve Wade

September 26, 2013

AEO2014 Preliminary Results
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Overview

2

• Residential projects

– RECS update

– Housing stock formation and 

decay

– Lighting model

– ENERGY STAR homes 

benchmarking

– Weather elasticities

• Commercial projects

– Major end-use capacity factors

– Data center servers

– ENERGY STAR buildings

– Hurdle rate floor

• Both sectors

– Usual annual updates

– Miscellaneous end-use 

technology assumptions updates

– Distributed generation

• Contract reports 

• Changes in release cycles

– AEO and IEO

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013
Residential results

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 3
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Macro: slower household growth expected

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 4

• Slower population growth (now 0.7% CAGR; was 0.9%)

• Slower household growth

• Housing starts now based on macro module output for entire 

projection

• Decay rates: what percent of this year’s stock survives into 

next year?

NEW OLD

Single family .997 .996

Multi-family .995 .999

Mobile homes .966 .976
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

What this means for, say, mobile homes

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2005 2040

stock of mobile homes (MAM and RDM)

millions

AEO2013 

was 

assuming 

too many 

mobile 

homes 

survive

But now it’s 

better for 

AEO2014

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2005 2040

stock of mobile homes (MAM)

millions

Macro 

module 

output went 

down from 

AEO2013 to 

AEO2014
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

2009 RECS: Smaller share of single family 

households

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2009 housing stock by region and building type

millions of homes

AEO2013AEO2014

single family multifamily mobile

homes

North

east

Midwest

South

West
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Base year end use composition affects projections (major fuels)

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 7

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

2009 electricity (delivered)

quads

space

heating

space

cooling

water

heating

kitchen &

laundry

lighting

TVs & PCs

other

AEO2013

AEO2014

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

2009 natural gas 

quads

space

heating

water

heating

other

cooking

AEO2013

AEO2014

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Base year end use composition affects projections (minor fuels)

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 8

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60

2009 distillate fuel

quads

space

heating

water

heating

2009 liquefied petroleum gas

quads

space

heating

water

heating

cooking

other

AEO2013

AEO2014

AEO2013

AEO2014

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Lighting module updates

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 9

• Lighting projections now driven completely by input file 

specifications

– Flexible number of lighting end uses

– Hours of use bins available for all end uses 

• Redefined lighting end use categories

– AEO 2013: general service, reflector, linear fluorescent, torchieres

– AEO 2014: general service, reflector, linear fluorescent, exterior

• Data updates

– Reduced cost of halogen bulbs meeting EISA efficacy requirements

– Added LED alternative to linear fluorescents
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Lighting projections reflect expanded LED availability in later 

years

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 10

delivered lighting consumption

quads

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014

Wider availability of LED 

technologies

Higher CFL shares in 2009

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Residential electricity consumption higher in near term

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 11

delivered electricity consumption

quads

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014

2012
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Residential natural gas consumption lower in near term

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 12

natural gas consumption

quads

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014

2012
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Petroleum fuels also lower than AEO2013

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 13

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2005 2015 2025 2035

AEO2013

AEO2014

2012

propane consumption

quads

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2005 2015 2025 2035

AEO2013

AEO2014

2012

distillate fuel oil consumption

quads

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Electricity prices higher; natural gas similar

14

$2012 per million Btu $2012 per million Btu

Residential Commercial

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2015 2025 2035

AEO2013

AEO2014

AEO2014

natural gas AEO2013

electricity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2015 2025 2035

AEO2013

AEO2014

AEO2014

AEO2013

natural gas

electricity

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
Turning to the commercial sector ...

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 15
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Commercial floorspace virtually unchanged from AEO2013

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 16

total floorspace

billion square feet

70

80

90

100

110

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Lower commercial capacity factors reduce potential savings 

from efficient purchases

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 17

stock efficiency of natural gas water heaters

Btu out/ Btu in

0.76

0.80

0.84

0.88

0.92

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Data centers server installed base grows at the rate of service 

output

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 18

non-PC office equipment consumption

quads

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

ENERGY STAR floorspace accounts for 1.9% of total 

commercial floorspace in 2012

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 19

total floorspace

billion square feet

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION

65

70

75

80

85

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

ENERGY STAR Floorspace
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Commercial electricity consumption higher than in AEO2013

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 20

delivered electricity consumption

quads

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014

2012

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Commercial natural gas consumption lower than in AEO2013

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 21

natural gas consumption

quads

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014

2012

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
Other projects

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 22
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) Update

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 23

Commercial MELs Residential MELs

Distribution Transformers Dehumidifiers

Data Center Servers Set-top Boxes, All 

IT Equipment (non-data center) Modems & Routers 

Water Treatment/Distribution External Power Supplies

PC – Desktops Non-Computer Rechargeable Electronics

PC – Laptops Ceiling Fans 

PC – Monitors Televisions 

Kitchen Ventilation DVD

Lab Refrigerators/Freezers PCs, Laptop

Medical Imaging Equipment PCs, Desktop 

Video Displays Monitors (i.e. desktop PC monitors)

Video Boards Audio Equipment 

Security Systems Portable Electric Spas 

Pools/Pool Pumps 

Security Systems, Home
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Televisions consumed 70 TWh in 2011, but efficiency is 

improving with the changeover to LCDs; however increases in 

typical size counter some efficiency gains.

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 24

“Analysis and Representation of Miscellaneous Electric Loads in NEMS”, Navigant Consulting, September 2013.

2011 2015 2020 2030 2040

Installed Base (000s) 355,000 364,000 388,000 444,000 501,000

Active 127 9 5 8 3 6 9 6 2

Off/Standby 1.62 1.13 0.49 0.40 0.4

Active 1,460 1460 1460 1460 1460

Off/Standby 7300 7300 7300 7300 7300

UEC kWh/yr 197 150 130 100 9 4

AEC TWh/yr 70.0 54.6 50.4 44.4 47.1

Power Draw (W)

Annual Usage (hrs)

This category includes: 

• Cathode Ray Tubes (CRT) – 47% of installed base

• Liquid Crystal Displays (LCD) – 42% of installed base

• Plasma – 11% of installed base

Major equipment contract reports now available online: 

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Distributed generation

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 25

• Update to latest installed capacity for PV

• Potential refinement of current and near-term PV costs 

(Tracking the Sun VI and joint LBNL/NREL presentation)
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Changes in release cycles for EIA’s AEO and IEO

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 26

• To focus more resources on rapidly changing energy 

markets and how they might evolve over the next few 

years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration is 

revising the schedule and approach for production of the 

International Energy Outlook (IEO) and the Annual 

Energy Outlook (AEO).

• Under this approach, a full edition of the IEO and AEO

will be produced in alternating years and a shorter 

edition of each will be completed in the “interim” years.
For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

AEO and IEO cycles for 2014 and 2015

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 27

2014 2015

International 

Energy

Outlook

Interim Edition in mid 2014:

• focus on the liquids projection 

as used in AEO2014

• summary tables

• short analysis 

Full Edition in the spring

Annual

Energy

Outlook

Full Edition in the spring:

• analysis of energy issues

• many alternative scenarios 

Interim Edition in late 2014 or early 

2015: 

• Reference

• Low / High Economic Growth

• Low / High Oil Price cases

• short discussions 
For more information

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary 

Results, September 26, 2013 28

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy