U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Preliminary AEO2013 Reference Case 

Results: Coal

Mike Mellish, Economist

Diane Kearney, Operations Research Analyst

October 4, 2012 | Washington, DC

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Key Results for the AEO2013

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 2

• Coal’s share of generation is 35 percent in 2040

• Coal consumption increases by 88 million short tons between 

2011 and 2040

• 48 GW of retirements

• High estimates for U.S. shale gas resources drive increased 

production and lower prices for natural gas compared to 

history

• Slightly higher average minemouth and delivered coal prices 

in AEO2013 compared to AEO2012

• About 170 million tons of coal exports by 2040
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

AEO2013: Some relevant assumptions

3

• Current laws and regulations, excludes a number of pending regulations that will likely affect coal

• Representation of environmental rules:

– SO2 and NOx: Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) instead of Cross-state Air Pollution 

Rule(CSAPR)

– Mercury and Air Toxics Standard (MATS)

• mercury: reduce uncontrolled mercury emissions by 90% representing an 

approximation for EPA’s more specific MACT emission limits

• acid gases: represented by requiring scrubbers or dry sorbent injection and fabric filter

– CO2: Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)

– AB32: California’s greenhouse gas program

• Renewable energy: 

30 States and the District of Columbia have enforceable Renewable Portfolio Standards(RPS)

Wind production tax credits (PTC) expire at end of 2012

Hydro , biomass, geothermal PTC expire at end of 2013

Solar investment tax credit (ITC) reverts from 30% to a permanent 10% ITC in 2016

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

AEO2013: Some relevant assumptions

4

• Update of RW Beck’s estimates of capital costs for new power 

plants in the AEO2013; increase for IGCC coal and status quo for 

PC

• 3% higher cost of capital for greenhouse gas intensive investments 

for coal plants (including coal-based synthetic liquid plants)

• Approximately 1 gigawatt of coal w/ carbon capture and 

sequestration (CCS) assumed by 2018 (investment tax credits in 

the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 and funding 

from the American Recovery and Revitalization Act of 2009)

• Coal-to-liquids (CTL) plants feasible beginning in 2018

• Removed coal-and-biomass-to-liquids (CBTL) option

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

AEO2013: Some relevant assumptions

5

• MATS compliance (either retrofits or retirements) begins 

in 2016 (assuming one-year reprieve)

• Carbon capture and sequestration for new plants is 

applied to PC rather than IGCC (due to revision in 

capital costs from RW Beck)

• Planned coal-fired capacity retirements: 28 gigawatts

• Planned coal-fired capacity additions: 6 gigawatts

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Coal consumption by sector, 1970-2040

6

million short tons

Electricity

Other Coal-to-Liquids

Total

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2011 Projections

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

AEO2012 Electricity

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Coal-to-liquids coal consumption, 2010-2040

7

million short tons

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013 Reference 

AEO2012 Reference 

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Generation shares by source, 2008, 2011, 2035, and 2040 

8

48

21 20

9

42

24

19

13

38

28

18 15

36

30

17 15

35

30

17 17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewable

2008 2011

AEO2012 Reference: 2035 AEO2013 Reference: 2035

AEO2013 Reference: 2040

percent

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Coal exports, 1960-2040

9

million short tons

AEO2013 Reference

AEO2012 Reference

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2011 Projections

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Coal exports by major supply region, 2010-2040

10

million short tons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Western

Appalachia

Total

Source: 2010: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Distribution Report;

2011-2040: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a)

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Interior
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Cumulative electricity generating capacity additions, 

2012-2035 and 2012-2040

11

gigawatts

12 8 9

131 164

214

9

6

10

59

68

106

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

AEO2012: 2012-2035 AEO2013: 2012-2035 AEO2013: 2012-2040

Coal Natural Gas/Oil Nuclear Renewables/Other

246

211

339

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 12

Coal-fired generating capacity by coal demand region, 

2011 and 2035

gigawatts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60 2011 AEO2012 Reference: 2035 AEO2013 Reference: 2035

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 13

Cumulative coal-fired capacity retirements by coal demand 

region, 2012-2035

gigawatts

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 AEO2012 Reference AEO2013 Reference

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 14

Cumulative coal-fired capacity retirements: planned and 

unplanned, 2012-2040

gigawatts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Planned Unplanned

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Note: Planned retirements represent those reported to EIA by generators in the electric power sector.

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 15

Cumulative SO2 scrubber retrofits, 2012-2040

gigawatts

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

AEO2013 Reference 

AEO2012 Reference 

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Total sulfur dioxide emissions, 2005-2040

16

Million short tons

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013 Reference 

AEO2012 Reference 

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Coal production, 1970-2040

17

million short tons

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AEO2012 Reference

AEO2013 Reference

History 2011 Projections

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Coal production by region, 1970-2040

18

million short tons

Appalachia

Interior

Western

AEO2012 Total

Total U.S.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2011 Projections

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Appalachian coal production, 1970-2040

19

million short tons

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Northern Appalachia

Central Appalachia

Southern Appalachia

AEO2013 Reference

AEO2012 Reference

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012;

Except for Appalachian total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

History 2011 Projections

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Interior coal production, 1970-2040

20

million short tons

AEO2012 Reference

AEO2013 Reference

0

50

100

150

200

250

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Eastern Interior

Gulf Lignite

Western Interior

History 2011 Projections

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012;

Except for Interior total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Western coal production, 1970-2040

21

million short tons

AEO2013 Reference

AEO2012 Reference

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Wyoming PRB

Other West

History 2011 Projections

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012;

Except for Western total, data for 1978-1985 exclude production from small (<10,000 short tons) coal mines 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Average minemouth coal prices by region, 1980-2040

22

2011 dollars per short ton

Appalachia

Interior

West

U.S. Average

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) 

2011

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Natural gas and coal prices to the electric power sector,

1980-2040

23

2011 dollars per million Btu

Natural Gas

Coal

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History 2011 Projections

AEO2013

AEO2012

AEO2013

AEO2012

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Natural gas and coal consumption, 1980-2040

24

quadrillion Btu

Natural Gas

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2012

History 2011 Projections

Coal

AEO2013

AEO2013

AEO2012

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 25

Average capacity utilization of natural gas combined cycle and 

coal generating capacity, 2008-2040

percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Gas

AEO2013

AEO2012

AEO2013

AEO2012

Coal

2011

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Average delivered price of coal to electricity sector, 2000-2040

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 26

2011 dollars short ton

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013 Reference 

AEO2012 Reference 

2011

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES 

DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 

Average delivered price of coal to electricity sector, 2000-2040

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012 27

2011 dollars per 

million Btu

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013 Reference 

AEO2012 Reference 

2011

Source: EIA, preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (NEMS run ref2013.d100212a) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 
For more information

28

Contact Info for NEMS Coal Team

Mike Mellish, Diane Kearney, and Ayaka Jones

Coal and Uranium Team

Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis

Office of Energy Analysis

U.S. Energy Information Administration

michael.mellish@eia.gov, (202) 586-2136

diane.kearney@eia.gov, (202) 586-2415

ayaka.jones@eia.gov, (202) 586-0998

Coal Analysis Team, 

Washington, DC, October 4, 2012