U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

Buildings Working Group Meeting

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

August 3, 2017 | Washington, DC

By

Buildings Energy Analysis Team

AEO2018 Model Updates
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Overview

• AEO release: this year versus last

• Major model updates

• Policy assumptions

• Historical updates

• Discussion

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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AEO2018 will include a full suite of side cases

• Unlike AEO2017, which included a limited number of side cases, AEO2018 

will include additional side cases beyond the standard set

– Reference (existing law and policy)

– High/low oil and gas resource and technology 

– High/low oil price 

– High/low economic growth

– other potential side cases:

• Extended Policies

• Energy Storage (excluding buildings)

• with or without Clean Power Plan (opposite of Reference case)

• AEO2018 will highlight results through 2050

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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Major model updates

• Major end-use technology menus

– residential and commercial space heating and cooling, water heating, residential appliances 

(pending contractor report)

– LED pricing trends

• Residential and commercial building shells

– commercial median building age and shape parameters for retirement function; building shell 

efficiency of new construction relative to existing stock

– residential shell menu costs and heating/ cooling indices

• Commercial Miscellaneous Electric Loads

– Telecommunication Equipment: Traditional PBX, Voice-over-IP, Cellular and PCS Networks, 

Information and Communication Technology Networks

– Office Equipment: Copiers, Scanners, Multifunction Devices, Fax Machines, Shredders, and 

Uninterruptible Power Supplies (UPS)

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Major model updates (continued)

• Distributed Generation (DG)

– update contagion effect for residential PV, which uses a ZIP code-level econometric 

penetration model

– update sub-Census division niches for commercial DG modeling using CBECS data

– update regional representation of interconnection limitations/ DG policies affecting DG 

adoption

– update historical PV system costs and installed capacities

• investigating use of EIA-861 historical solar capacity data; however, data doesn’t go all 

the way back through beginning of model projections

– investigate the impacts of high levels of DG (and in particular PV generation) on electric 

utility rate structures; examine of how utilities may expect to recover fixed costs, taking into 

account a reduction in sales along with constant (or increasing) requirements to maintain 

reliable electricity service

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Policy assumptions

• Incorporate federal equipment standard rulemakings finalized since last 

AEO:

– commercial pre-rinse spray valves

– pool pumps & ceiling fans

– commercial walk-in coolers and freezers

– standards for portable air conditioners, uninterruptible power supplies, and commercial 

boilers were finalized at the end of 2016, but the current administration is revisiting them 

because final rules must be available for public review for at least 45 days before DOE can 

send them for official publication in the Federal Register.

• Identify new ENERGY STAR specifications as they affect major end-use 

equipment and miscellaneous electric loads (MELs)

• Investigate effects of building code compliance levels on building shell 

efficiency

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Policy assumptions – Clean Power Plan (CPP)

• Modeling of major end-use equipment and residential shell rebates by 

Census division to represent utility programs

– CPP rebates at the end-use technology level range from 10%-15% of the installed cost of 

energy efficient equipment; timing varies by Census division

– model calculates efficiency program administration costs and savings relative to baseline 

case – values are available for electricity sector to use in compliance/ price calculations

– inputs include capability to represent regional incentives for renewable distributed generation 

and combined heat and power technologies; no added incentives planned for AEO2018

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Policy assumptions – California’s Assembly Bill 32

• Doubling California’s energy efficiency goals 

– in 2016, California passed SB 32, which codifies a 2030 GHG emissions reduction target of 

40 percent below 1990 levels

– modeling double Clean Power Plan rebates for Census division 9 and attributing all of the 

savings towards California

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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percent of installed cost as subsidy for high efficiency equipment

Clean Power Plan energy efficiency rebates vary by end use

Note: Some subsidies allowed to start in 2020 to account for potential early investments in support of the Clean Energy Incentive Program

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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Historical utility energy efficiency

• Utility energy efficiency in AEO2017

– AEO2017 incorporated existing “investment portfolios” of utility energy efficiency programs 

for specific end-use technologies into NEMS. Rebates were adjusted by region and applied 

alongside existing and anticipated federal rebates.

– consumer choice parameters were adjusted to match projected consumption to levels that 

had been estimated without the rebates. 

• Anticipated AEO2018 updates

– benchmark total modeled residential and commercial utility program spending to latest 

available data from EIA-861 survey

– refine rebate levels for individual end uses to reflect available information on energy 

efficiency program spending by end use

– refine commercial hurdle rates by end use 

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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AEO2018 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC 

August 3, 2017

Source: ICF, 2016; ENERGY STAR, 2014 (for residential lighting)

11

0 20 40 60 80 100

Rooftop air-source heat pump

Ground-source heat pump

Gas furnace

Gas boiler

Chiller

Rooftop AC

Wall window room AC

Res-type central AC

Gas water heater

Electric water heater

Ventilator

100W Equivalent CFL

LED PAR38, LED A Lamp, LED...

Average Rebate: Commercial (%)

Historical Utility Energy Efficiency Update

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Clothes washer

Refrigerator

Air-source heat pump

Central Air Conditioner

Natural gas furnace

Natural gas boiler

Fuel oil furnace

Fuel oil boiler

Natural gas water heater

Electric water heater

CFL Lightbulbs

LEDs

Average Rebate: Residential (%)
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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Other historical updates

• Sectoral energy consumption by fuel

– Monthly Energy Review (MER)

– Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

• NOAA weather data and forecast

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

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For more buildings information

Kevin Jarzomski | phone: 202-586-3208

| email: kevin.jarzomski@eia.gov

David Peterson | phone: 202-586-5084

| email: david.peterson@eia.gov

Behjat Hojjati | phone: 202-586-1068

| email: behjat.hojjati@eia.gov

Meera Fickling | phone: 202-586-0765

| email: meera.fickling@eia.gov

Kimberly Klaiman | phone: 202-586-1678

| email: kimberly.klaiman@eia.gov

Erin Boedecker | phone: 202-586-4791

Team Lead | email: erin.boedecker@eia.gov

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

State Energy Data System | http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/

International Energy Portal | http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Residential Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/

Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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Bonus Slides

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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Policy assumptions – regulations

• Federal equipment standards

– all federal equipment efficiency standards that are currently “on the books”

• Building codes

– states assumed to meet goals defined in ARRA, then continue trends in code adoption

• residential: IECC 2009 or better by 2017

• commercial: ASHRAE 90.1-2007 or better by 2016; ASHRAE 90.1-2013 or better by 

2024 (near-term adoption rate may be adjusted for AEO2017 based on updated 

information)

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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR 

DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR 

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Policy assumptions – tax credits

• Tax credits

– includes American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 enacted January 2013

• residential equipment/ envelope credits included for 2012 and 2013

– 2016 expiration of investment tax credit for small wind, fuel cells, geothermal heat pumps, 

• EPACT 2005, EIEA: 30% of cost with no upper limit (except fuel cells)

– 2016 expiration of investment tax credit for microturbines, CHP

• EPACT 2005 (microturbines only), EIEA : 10% of installed cost

– Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2016

• phased expiration of solar investment tax credit

• 30% through 2019; 26% for installations in 2020; 22% for installations in 2021; no 

residential tax credit and 10% commercial tax credit in 2022 and beyond

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