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China's electric power sector reaches growth limit

BEIJING - Industry analysts have warned that China's construction

of electric power plants has reached a growth limit and urged the

country to make immense efforts to conserve in a bid to deal with

a continuing electricity shortage.

Since China started its economic reforms in 1978, the installed

capacity of electric power has increased rapidly. Especially since

the start of the 21st century, the country's demand for electric

Letters

Forum

power has risen sharply, leading to continuing shortages of

electricity.

China's total installed capacity reached 440 million kilowatts (kW)

by 2004, and is expected to reach 500-510 million kW by the end

of 2005. The electric power industry has developed by leaps and

bounds when one considers the road it has taken. It took 108

years to bring installed capacity from nothing in 1879 to 100 million

kW in 1987, and then only eight years to achieve the second 100

million kW between 1987 to 1995. The third 100 million kW was

built in five years from 1995 to 2000, and then the fourth 100

million kW in four years from 2000 to 2004.

Total installed capacity is forecast to increase 60-70 million kW in

2005. Since 1980, China has led the world in growth of electricity

production. Its average annual increase of installed capacity

increased 7.98% in the 1980-2002 period, 5.3 percentage points

higher than the world's average level, and six percentage points

higher than that of developed countries in Europe and the United

States.

Thanks to the fast growth in installed capacity, China's installed

capacity ranking globally has risen continually. It ranked seventh in

the world after the United States, Russia, Japan, Germany,

Canada and Britain in 1980, but jumped to the second place in

1996, trailing only the United States.

At present, China's installed capacity and annual output of

electricity is only about half that of the United States, which is the

biggest country in terms of installed capacity and annual

production of electricity in the world. Installed capacity increased

by 8 million kW in the US in 1992-2000, while that in China

increased by 19 million kW. China's annual increase in installed

capacity reached 50 million kW in 2004, and is forecast to reach

60-70 million kW in 2005, about one or two times more than that of

the US.

China's output of electricity increased by 281.8 billion kilowatt

hours (kWh) in 2004, about 50% of the world increase in electricity

output in that year. But the present speed of China 's power

construction is already very fast and may have reached a limit in

http://www.atimes. com/atimes/China/GE05AdO7.html

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Electricity st 'pplyto

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(Mar 30, '05)

China to have

enough electricity_by

2007: Expert (Apr 26.

'05)

-P-149 pti-1119- don

power duopoly (May

22, '05)

Pagelof3

8/8/2005

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 86

Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong News and Business. 

Front Page 

Greater China 

I South Asia 

I Southeast Asia 

I Japan 

I Korea 

I Middle East 

Central Asia 

World Economy 

Asian Economy 

Book Reviews 

I Letters 

I Forum 

China's electric power sector reaches growth limit 

BEIJING - Industry analysts have warned that China's construction 

of electric power plants has reached a growth limit and urged the 

country to make immense efforts to conserve in a bid to deal with 

a continuing electricity shortage. 

Since China started its economic reforms in 1978, the installed 

capacity of electric power has increased rapidly. Especially since 

the start of the 21 st century, the country's demand for electric 

power has risen sharply, leading to continuing shortages of 

electricity. 

China's total installed capacity reached 440 million kilowatts (kW) 

by 2004, and is expected to reach SOO-S10 million kW by the end 

of 200S. The electric power industry has developed by leaps and 

bounds when one considers the road it has taken. It took 108 

years to bring installed capacity from nothing in 1879 to 100 million 

kW in 1987, and then only eight years to achieve the second 100 

million kW between 1987 to 1995. The third 100 million kW was 

built in five years from 1995 to 2000, and then the fourth 100 

million kW in four years from 2000 to 2004. 

Total installed capacity is forecast to increase 60-70 million kW in 

200S. Since 1980, China has led the world in growth of electricity 

production. Its average annual increase of installed capacity 

increased 7.98% in the 1980-2002 period, S.3 percentage points 

higher than the world's average level, and six percentage points 

higher than that of developed countries in Europe and the United 

States. 

Thanks to the fast growth in installed capacity, China's installed 

capacity ranking globally has risen continually. It ranked seventh in 

the world after the United States, Russia, Japan, Germany, 

Canada and Britain in 1980, but jumped to the second place in 

1996, trailing only the United States. 

At present, China's installed capacity and annual output of 

electricity is only about half that of the United States, which is the 

biggest country in terms of installed capacity and annual 

production of electricity in the world. Installed capacity increased 

by 8 million kW in the US in 1992-2000, while that in China 

increased by 19 million kW. China's annual increase in installed 

capacity reached SO million kW in 2004, and is forecast to reach 

60-70 million kW in 200S, about one or two times more than that of 

the US. 

China's output of electricity increased by 281.8 billion kilowatt 

hours (kWh) in 2004, about SO% of the world increase in electricity 

output in that year. But the present speed of China's power 

construction is already very fast and may have reached a limit in 

http://www.atimes.comlatimes/China/GE05 Ad07 .html 

t::lectri~i1:yJ;!JPplyJ_Q 

rElmCliq Jigbl jn 2QQ!:i 

(Mar 30, '05) 

Qbina to b~'v'S! 

ElnQlJgnJ3I§lc:tricjtyJ)y 

2007: Expert (Apr 26, 

'05) 

PJlJg PIJJI§l<:LQI] 

power duopoly (May 

22, '05) 

Page I of3 

8/8/2005 
Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong News and Business.

terms of growth rate. Therefore, the country should pay more

attention to energy conservation and control of domestic demand,

according to industry experts.

China produced 193,125 million kWh of electricity in December

2004. The annual output in 2004 reached 2,130,228 million kWh,

up 14.9% year on year, according to the National Bureau of

Statistics. Of the energy produced in December, 163,636 million

kWh was produced by thermal power, which accounted for a 2004

output of 1,770,171 million kWh, up 14.4% year on year, according

to the National Bureau of Statistics. 22,271 million kWh of

hydroelectric power was produced in the same month;

hydroelectric output in 2004 reached 306,523 million kWh, up

17.6% year on year. Lastly, 3,880 million kWh of nuclear power

was produced in December 2004. Nuclear power output in 2004

reached 50,007 million kWh, up 14.2% year on year.

(Asia Pulse/XIC)

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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GE05AdO7.html 8/8/2005

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 86

Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong News and Business. Page 2 of3 

terms of growth rate. Therefore, the country should pay more 

attention to energy conservation and control of domestic demand, 

according to industry experts. 

China produced 193,125 million kWh of electricity in December 

2004. The annual output in 2004 reached 2,130,228 million kWh, 

up 14.9% year on year, according to the National Bureau of 

Statistics. Of the energy produced in December, 163,636 million 

kWh was produced by thermal power, which accounted for a 2004 

output of 1,770,171 million kWh, up 14.4% year on year, according 

to the National Bureau of Statistics. 22,271 million kWh of 

hydroelectric power was produced in the same month; 

hydroelectric output in 2004 reached 306,523 million kWh, up 

17.6% year on year. Lastly, 3,880 million kWh of nuclear power 

was produced in December 2004. Nuclear pow~r output in 2004 

reached 50,007 million kWh, up 14.2% year on year. 

(Asia Pulse/XIC) 

http://www.atimes.com!atimes/China/GE05 Ad07 .htrnl 

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8/8/2005 
Asia Times Online:: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong News and Business.

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http://www.atimes. com/atimes/China/GE05AdO7 .html 8/8/2005

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 86

Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong News and Business. 

All material on this website is copyright and may not be republished in any form without written permission. 

0.,8 Copyright 1999 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. 

Head Office: Rm 202, Hau Fook Mansion, No.8 Hau Fook St., Kowloon, Hong Kong 

Thailand Bureau: 11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110 

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GE05 Ad07 .html 

Page 3 of3 

8/8/2005