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APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA SPREADSHEET

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

10A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS ............................................. 10A-1
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APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA SPREADSHEET

MODEL

10A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS

The results obtained in the shipments and national impact analysis (NIA) analyses can be

examined and reproduced using the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet available on the U.S.

Department of Energy (DOE)’s website at:

http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/dist_transformers.html. 

The spreadsheet is called “NIA_DT_NOPR.xls” and it enables the user to perform a

national impact analysis of distribution transformer standards for both the liquid-immersed and

dry-type equipment classes. This spreadsheet also enables the user to analyze the policy options

considered in the regulatory impact analysis. To run the spreadsheet, the user needs to have

Microsoft Excel 2000 or a later version. 

The NIA spreadsheet performs calculations to forecast the changes in national energy use

(NES) and net present value (NPV) due to an energy-efficiency standard. The energy use and

associated costs for a given standard are determined first by calculating the shipments and then

calculating the energy use and costs for a product class. The differences between the standards

and base cases (absent a national standard) can then be compared and the NES and NPV

determined. The NIA spreadsheet, or workbook, consists of the following worksheets:

Introduction This worksheet provides an outline of the contents of the entire

national impact spreadsheet and describes the function of

individual worksheets. 

Model Flowchart This worksheet presents a flowchart of the shipments and the

NES/NPV modules.

CSL Definitions and DL-PC Mapping

This worksheet defines efficiency levels for candidate standard

levels (CSLs) by design lines and provides design-lines-to-productclasses mapping.

Ship-NES-NPV Output This worksheet presents the consolidated outputs produced for

each product class when the user clicks the button “All Classes

Summary”on the “National Impact Summary” worksheet. Total

savings and NPV for the forecast period are summarized in tables

for each standard level. 
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National Impact Summary This worksheet contains user input selections and a summary table

containing cumulative shipments, cumulative energy savings, and

NPV for each trial standard level (TSL). The worksheet also

graphically summarizes the energy and economic savings resulting

from standards.

RIA Output This worksheet presents the consolidated outputs produced for

each product class when the user clicks the button “All Classes

RIA Summary”on the “Regulatory Impact Analysis” worksheet. 

Total savings and NPV for the forecast period are summarized in

tables for each standard level. 

Regulatory Impact Analysis

This worksheet contains user input selections and a summary table

containing cumulative shipments, cumulative energy savings, and

NPV for each non-regulatory policy option. The worksheet also

graphically summarizes the energy and economic savings resulting

from standards.

Energy Impacts from TSLs - Charts

This worksheet displays the savings charts for years 2010 through

2038 for all the TSLs when the user runs a specific scenario or a

product class in the “National Impact Summary” sheet. 

Annual Impacts This worksheet makes several calculations for the base case as well

as for all the TSLs. Savings are calculated as the difference

between the base case and the TSL energy consumption.

Shipments Forecast across TSLs

This worksheet compiles the shipments forecast from the stock

sheets (see below) for years 2010 through 2038 for all the TSLs. 

The output of this worksheet corresponds to the product class for

which the model is run.

Shipments Charts The shipments forecast charts for the liquid-immersed transformers

(LT) and dry-type transformers (DT) are contained in the “LT

Shipments Charts” and “DT Shipments Charts” worksheets. 

Shipments Data This worksheet calculates total historical shipments for years 1977

through 2000 and forecasts shipments for years 2004 through 2038. 

These shipments are calculated for both liquid-immersed and drytype transformers.
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Stock Sheets There are 14 stock sheets (7 for liquid-immersed and 7 for drytype) for the base case and the 6 TSLs. Each stock sheet calculates

the shipments, retirements, and affected stock in a particular year. 

Lifetime This worksheet contains the transformer reliability function and

produces the retirement rates. The probabilities of retirement

generated in this worksheet are used to calculate the annual

retirements in the stock sheets.

LCC Data by Product Class

This worksheet contains energy loss (or consumption) and firstcost data for different product classes. As the name suggests, the

data for this worksheet come directly from the life-cycle cost

(LCC) analysis. The load growth calculations for liquid-immersed

and dry-type transformers are also carried out in this worksheet.

CSL-TSL Mapping This worksheet maps the various CSLs for design lines into TSLs

for product classes. The worksheet also re-scales the losses and

costs for representative units of a design line, using the 0.75

scaling factor in the sheet. These data are then aggregated into

product classes in the “LCC Data by Product Class” worksheet.

LCC Input Data Data in this worksheet are the mean values for the different

variables from the Monte Carlo simulation runs of the LCC for

individual design lines.

Market Share Data This worksheet contains the market shares of the different

transformer design lines. This worksheet also calculates the 0.75

scaling factors for each design line.

Site2Source This worksheet contains the conversion factors for calculating

source energy from site energy. 

EIA Electricity Sales Data

This worksheet contains the historical and forecasted retail

electricity sales data (obtained from DOE's Energy Information

Administration (EIA)). 

Annual Energy Price Forecast
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This worksheet contains the AEO20051 forecast data for the

electric power sector for the different economic growth scenarios

(i.e., reference, high, and low). This forecast is used to estimate

future growth in shipments.

Basic instructions for operating the NIA spreadsheet are as follows:

1. After downloading the NIA spreadsheet file from DOE's website, open the file using

Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for the worksheet “National Impact Summary.” 

This worksheet serves as the user interface for running the model for a particular product

class. To provide flexibility, the spreadsheet permits some user modifications to the

model. The user may select a particular macroeconomic forecast which determines fuel

prices, electricity sales, and income data to be used by the model. The user may also

directly input new values for implicit discount rates, which quantify consumer preference

for immediate, instead of delayed, savings. Additionally, the user can select long-term

purchase elasticities for transformers.

2. Use Excel’s View/Zoom commands at the top menu bar to change the size of the display

to make it fit your monitor.

3. The user can change the model parameters listed in the gray box labeled “Inputs.” The

parameters are:

a. Economic Growth: To change the value, use the drop-down menu. Select the

desired growth level (Reference, Low, or High).

b. Discount Rate: To change the value, select cell E8. Type in the desired discount

rate.

c. Elasticity Liquid-Immersed Type: To change the value, use the drop-down menu

to pick a level (Medium, High, Low).

d. Elasticity Dry-Type: To change the value, use the drop-down menu to pick a level

(Medium, High, Low).

4. The user can now select the desired product class from the drop-down menu and view the

results in the summary table for that product class. To produce results for all product

classes, the user will need to click the “All Classes Summary” button. When the user gets

a message saying “Done,” the calculations are complete. Results from this run will be

available in “Ship-NES-NPV Outputs” worksheet.
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5. The spreadsheet also has a feature that enables the user to produce annual impacts for all

product classes in a single workbook by clicking the “Output All Classes Annual” button. 

The output for this utility is produced in a separate workbook called “annual_impactsoutput.xls.”
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REFERENCE

1. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook

2005: With Projections Through 2025. January, 2005. Washington, DC. Report No.

DOE/EIA-0383(2005). <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html>