APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA SPREADSHEET


MODEL


TABLE OF CONTENTS


10A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS ............................................ 10A-1


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APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA SPREADSHEET


MODEL 

10A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS 

The results obtained in the shipments and national impact analysis (NIA) analyses can be 

examined and reproduced using the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet available on the U.S. 

Department of Energy (DOE)’s website at: 

http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/dist_transformers.html. 

The spreadsheet is called “NIA_DT_NOPR.xls” and it enables the user to perform a 

national impact analysis of distribution transformer standards for both the liquid-immersed and 

dry-type equipment classes. This spreadsheet also enables the user to analyze the policy options 

considered in the regulatory impact analysis. To run the spreadsheet, the user needs to have 

Microsoft Excel 2000 or a later version. 

The NIA spreadsheet performs calculations to forecast the changes in national energy 

(NES) and net present value (NPV) due to an energy efficiency standard. The energy use and 

associated costs for a given standard are determined first by calculating the shipments and then 

calculating the energy use and costs for a product class. The differences between the standards 

and base cases (absent a national standard) can then be compared and the NES and NPV 

determined. The NIA spreadsheet, or workbook, consists of the following worksheets: 

Introduction This worksheet provides an outline of the contents of the entire 

national impact spreadsheet and describes the function of individual 

worksheets. 

Model Flowchart This worksheet presents a flowchart of the shipments and the 

NES/NPV modules. 

CSL Definitions and DL-PC Mapping 

This worksheet defines efficiency levels for trial standard levels 

(TSLs) by design lines and provides design-lines-to-productclasses mapping. 

Ship-NES-NPV Output	 This worksheet presents the consolidated outputs produced for 

each product class when the user clicks the button “All Classes 

Summary”on the “National Impact Summary” worksheet. Total 

savings and NPV for the forecast period are summarized in tables 

for each standard level. 

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National Impact Summary	 This worksheet contains user input selections and a summary table 

containing cumulative shipments, cumulative energy savings, and 

NPV for each TSL. The worksheet also graphically summarizes 

the energy and economic savings resulting from standards. 

RIA Output	 This worksheet presents the consolidated outputs produced for 

each product class when the user clicks the button “All Classes RIA 

Summary”on the “Regulatory Impact Analysis” worksheet. Total 

savings and NPV for the forecast period are summarized in tables 

for each standard level. 

Regulatory Impact Analysis 

This worksheet contains user input selections and a summary table 

containing cumulative shipments, cumulative energy savings, and 

NPV for each non-regulatory policy option. The worksheet also 

graphically summarizes the energy and economic savings resulting 

from standards. 

Energy Impacts from TSLs - Charts 

This worksheet displays the savings charts for years 2010 through 

2038 for all the TSLs when the user runs a specific scenario or a 

product class in the “National Impact Summary” sheet. 

Annual Impacts	 This worksheet makes several calculations for the base case as well 

as for all the TSLs. Savings are calculated as the difference 

between the base case and the TSL energy consumption. 

Shipments Forecast across TSLs 

This worksheet compiles the shipments forecast from the stock 

sheets (see below) for years 2010 through 2038 for all the TSLs. 

The output of this worksheet corresponds to the product class for 

which the model is run. 

Shipments Charts	 The shipments forecast charts for the liquid-immersed transformers 

(LT) and dry-type transformers (DT) are contained in the “LT 

Shipments Charts” and “DT Shipments Charts” worksheets. 

Shipments Data	 This worksheet calculates total historical shipments for years 1977 

through 2000 and forecasts shipments for years 2004 through 2038. 

These shipments are calculated for both liquid-immersed and drytype transformers. 

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Stock Sheets	 There are four stock sheets (two for liquid-immersed and two for 

dry-type) for the base case and the TSLs. Each stock sheet 

calculates the shipments, retirements, and affected stock in a 

particular year. 

Lifetime	 This worksheet contains the transformer reliability function and 

produces the retirement rates. The probabilities of retirement 

generated in this worksheet are used to calculate the annual 

retirements in the stock sheets. 

LCC Data by Product Class 

This worksheet contains energy loss (or consumption) and firstcost data for different product classes. As the name suggests, the 

data for this worksheet come directly from the life-cycle cost (LCC) 

analysis. The load growth calculations for liquid-immersed and 

dry-type transformers are also carried out in this worksheet. 

TSL Mapping	 This worksheet also re-scales the losses and costs for representative 

units of a design line, using the 0.75 scaling factor in the sheet. 

These data are then aggregated into product classes in the “LCC 

Data by Product Class” worksheet. 

LCC Input Data	 Data in this worksheet are the mean values for the different 

variables from the Monte Carlo simulation runs of the LCC for 

individual design lines. 

Market Share Data	 This worksheet contains the market shares of the different 

transformer design lines. The worksheet also calculates the 0.75 

scaling factors for each design line. 

Site2Source	 This worksheet contains the conversion factors for calculating 

source energy from site energy. 

EIA Electricity Sales Data 

This worksheet contains the historical and forecasted retail 

electricity sales data (obtained from DOE's Energy Information 

Administration (EIA)). 

Annual Energy Price Forecast 

This worksheet contains the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 

20071 forecast data for the electric power sector for the different 

economic growth scenarios (i.e., reference, high, and low). This 

forecast is used to estimate future growth in shipments. 

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Basic instructions for operating the NIA spreadsheet are as follows: 

1.	 After downloading the NIA spreadsheet file from DOE's website, open the file using 

Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for the worksheet “National Impact Summary.” 

This worksheet serves as the user interface for running the model for a particular product 

class. To provide flexibility, the spreadsheet permits some user modifications to the 

model. The user may select a particular macroeconomic forecast which determines fuel 

prices, electricity sales, and income data to be used by the model. The user may also 

directly input new values for implicit discount rates, which quantify consumer preference 

for immediate, instead of delayed, savings. Additionally, the user can select long-term 

purchase elasticities for transformers. 

2.	 Use Excel’s View/Zoom commands at the top menu bar to change the size of the display 

to make it fit your monitor. 

3.	 The user can change the model parameters listed in the gray box labeled “Inputs.” The 

parameters are: 

a.	 Economic Growth: To change the value, use the drop-down menu. Select the 

desired growth level (Reference, Low, or High). 

b.	 Discount Rate: To change the value, use the drop-down menu. Select the desired 

discount rate (3%, 4.2%, or 7%). 

c.	 Elasticity Liquid-Immersed Type: To change the value, use the drop-down menu 

to pick a level (Medium, High, Low). 

d.	 Elasticity Dry-Type: To change the value, use the drop-down menu to pick a level 

(Medium, High, Low). 

4.	 The user can now select the desired product class from the drop-down menu and view the 

results in the summary table for that product class. To produce results for all product 

classes, the user will need to click the “All Classes Summary” button. When the user gets 

a message saying “Done,” the calculations are complete. Results from this run will be 

available in the “Ship-NES-NPV Outputs” worksheet. 

5.	 The spreadsheet also has a feature that enables the user to produce annual impacts for all 

product classes in a single workbook by clicking the “Output All Classes Annual” button. 

The output for this utility is produced in a separate workbook called “annual_impactsoutput.xls.” 

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REFERENCE


1.	 U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2005: With Projections Through 2025. January, 2005. Washington, DC. Report No. 

DOE/EIA-0383(2005). <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html> 

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