Technical SupportDocument (TSD) for the Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan Forthe Lancaster, PA 1997 and 2006 PM2.sNonattainment Area

Submitted May 2014 by the Pennsylvania Department ofEnvironmental Protection TSD Prepared February 2015 by Jessica 

### L. Fry Office ofAirMonitoring and Analysis, 3AP40 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 3 1650 Arch Street Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103

Reviewed by Alice H. Chow, Associate Director Office ofAirMonitoring and Analysis (3AP40)

### I. Introduction The purpose ofthis document is to provide a technical summary ofthe Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis (OAMA) review ofthe emissions inventories submitted with the Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan for the Lancaster, PA 1997 and 2006 PM2

.s Nonattainment Area (NAA) by the Pennsylvania Department ofEnvironmental Protection (PADEP). The NAA consists ofLancaster County in Pennsylvania. This review does not determine the approvability ofthe redesignationrequest or maintenance plan. Emissions inventories in a redesignation request are used to showpermanent and enforceable emission reductions between the year the area was designated as a nonattainment area and the year the area came into attainment. In a maintenance plan, the emissions inventories are used to reflect the emissions during the time the area came into attainment and are then projected to show that the area will remain in attainment. Any questions pertaining to this technical summary should be directed to Alice H. Chow, Associate Director, Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis, at 215- 814-2144 or viaemail at chow.alice@epa.gov. 

### II. Emissions Inventories for Redesignation Request 2002Nonattainment YearInventory In aredesignationrequest, emissions inventories are used to supportthe State's claim that the areahas permanent and enforceable emissions reductions. In orderto do this, the state should estimate the percent reduction (typically from the year that was used to determine the design value for designation and classification) achieved from federal and state control measures; this is usually termed as the nonattainment orbaseline year inventory. For the purpose ofthis plan the year 2002 was used the nonattainment year inventory. The 2002 nonattainment year inventory contains primary PM2

.semissions (including condensibles), S02,NOx,VOC, and NH3 emissions. This section will discuss the 2002 nonattainment year inventory that was used in the Lancaster, PA Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan submitted by PADEP. The 2002 point source inventory contained emissions for electric generating units (EGUs) and non-EGU sources in the NAA. PADEP developed their 2002 inventory by using emissions directly reported by the facilities. For the 2002 reporting year, many facilities did not report condensable PM emissions to PADEP. While missing condensable PM emission estimates may have underreported total PM2.5 emissions for the base year, it did not have an impact when compared withthe 2007 attainment year inventory (which included condensable PM) because the 2007 PM2.5 emissions were less than the 2002 estimates. The nonpoint source emissions inventory for 2002 was developed using 2002 specific activity data along with EPA emission factors and emission calculation methodologies. For 2002 nonroad mobile sources, PADEP generated the emissions using EPA's NONROAD 2005 model. Since marine, air and rail/locomotive (MAR) emissions are not part of theNONROAD model, they were calculated separately outside ofthe NONROAD model. Aircraft emissions were estimated using the Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System(EDMS) 4.20. Locomotive emissions were projected from a 1999 emissions survey offuel use statistics from Class II and II railroads. The 2002 omoadmobile source inventory was developed using EPA's highway mobile source emissions model MOVES2010. PADEP used local activity to replace default inputs in the model where appropriate. OAMA staffreviewed the files and the emission results provided by PADEP and found them to be acceptable. 

### III. Emissions Inventories for Maintenance Plan 2007Attainment YearInventory andMaintenancePlan Base YearInventory Under section 172(c)(3) states are required to submit a comprehensive, accurate, current accounting ofactual emissions from all sources (point, nonpoint, nomoad, and omoad) in the nonattainment area. This inventory contains primary PM2

.semissions (including condensibles), S02,NOx, VOC, and NH3

. In a Maintenance Plan, states are required to submit an inventory used · for the year ofattainment, which is called the attainment year inventory and can also be referred to as the maintenance plan base year inventory. This inventory is used as the basis for the projected inventories that are used to show the area will remain in attainment. The base year inventory submitted by PADEP contains primary PM2.s emissions (including condensibles), S02, NOx,VOC, andNH3 emissions. This section will discuss the 2007 emissions inventory that was used inthe LancasterRedesignation Request and Maintenance Plan in orderto fulfill the 172(c)(3) and attainmentyear emissions inventory requirements. Forthe 2007 base year inventory for the point, nonpoint, and nomoad categories, PADEP submittedthe 2007 Version 3 Emissions Inventory developed through the Mid-Atlantic Regional AirManagementAssociation (MARAMA) regional planning process. Documentation ofthe development oftheinventory canbe found in Technical SupportDocument for the Development of the 

### 2007EmissionInventory for the RegionalAir QualityModeling in the NortheastIMidAtlanticRegion Version 

### 3.3

.January 

### 23, 2012. The 2007 point source inventory contained emissions for EGU and non-EGU sources in theNAA. EPA guidance for emissions inventory developmentprovides that actual emissions shouldbe used for purposes ofthebase year inventory. PADEP developed their 2007 inventory by using emissions directly reported by the facilities. The PM emissions for the 2007 point source inventory were augmented using condensable emission factors developed for MARAMA in 2008. This was done to fill in any missing condensable PM emissions from facilities. The nonpoint source emissions inventory for 2007 was developed using 2007 specific activity data along with EPA emission factors and the most recently available emission calculationmethodologies. PADEP used 2008 NEI data to fill in any missing categories in the 2007 inventory. ·For 2007 nonroad mobile sources, PADEP generated the emissions using EPA's NMIM2008 model. Since marine, air and rail/locomotive (MAR) emissions are not part ofthe NONROAD model, they were calculated separately outside ofthe NONROAD model. Aircraft emissions were developed using EPA's database to the support the 2008 NEI. PADEP used railroad emissions developedby the EasternRegional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC)

. The 2007 onroad mobile source inventory was developed using EPA's highway mobile source emissions model MOVES2010

. PADEP used local activity to replace default inputs in the model where appropriate. OAMA staffreviewed the files and the emission results provided by PADEP and found them to be acceptable. 2017and2025Projection Emission Inventories Projection inventories are used to show that the area will remain in attainment. PADEP used2017 and 2025 emissionprojections developed through the MARAMA regional planning process for the interim and maintenance plan end year, respectively. Emission projections, emissionmethodologies and growth factors for 2017 and 2025 can be found in the Technical SupportDocument for the Development of the 

### 20131201712020 Emission Inventoriesfor RegionalAir QualityModeling in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Region (MARAMA 2017 TSD) and the Technical SupportDocument for the Development of the 

### 2025 Emission Inventory for PM2.5Nonattainment Counties in the MANE- VURegion, January 

### 2012 (MARAMA 2025 TSD), respectively. ForEGU emissions, PADEP used growth factors based on the Annual Energy Outlook (AE02011) and applied them to the 2007 inventory. Non-EGU emissions projections were based onVersion 3.3 ofthe 2007 MANE-VU+VA inventory. MARAMA growth factors were developed using AEO fuel consumption forecasts, state-level employment projections, and other state-specific emissionprojection data. Nonpoint source emissions for 2017 and 2025 were developed similarly to the non-EGU point sources. Emissionprojections were based on Version 3.3 ofthe 2007 MANE-VU+VA inventory. MARAMA growth factors were developed using AEO fuel consumption forecasts, state-level employment projections, and other state-specific emission projection data. Nonroad source emissions for 2017 and 2025 were developed using NMIM model runs which contain default assumptions for projected years. Aircraft emissions were projected by applying activity growth datareported in the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Terminal AreaForecast (TAF) system for 2009-2030 (FAA2010). Railroad emissions were based onthe MARAMA MANE-VU+Va inventory. The 2017 and 2025 onroad mobile source inventory was developed using EPA's highway mobile source emissions model MOVES2010. PADEP used local activity to replace default inputs in the model where appropriateOAMA staffreviewed the methodologies provided by PADEP and found them to be acceptable.