APPENDIX 9A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

9A.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 9A­1

9A.2 STANDARDS­CASE MARKET­SHARE MATRICES ....................................... 9A­1

9A.3 RESULTS ............................................................................................................... 9A­4

LIST OF TABLES

Table 9A.2.1 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Commercial IRL Sockets (65W

BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)............................................................. 9A­2

Table 9A.2.2 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets (65W BR

Lamp Substitution Sensitivity) ................................................................... 9A­3

Table 9A.2.3 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets (10

Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity) .......................................................... 9A­4

Table 9A.3.1 Commercial Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Cumulative Shipments

Impacts Caused by Standards over the Period 2012–2042 (65W BR

Lamp Substitution Sensitivity) ................................................................... 9A­7

Table 9A.3.2 Residential Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Cumulative Shipments Impacts

Caused by Standards over the Period 2012–2042 (65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity).............................................................................. 9A­7

Table 9A.3.3 Residential Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Cumulative Shipments Impacts

Caused by Standards over the Period 2012–2042 (10 Percent Lumen

Increase Sensitivity).................................................................................... 9A­8

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 9A.3.1 Commercial IRL Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipment Forecasts (65W

BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)............................................................. 9A­5

Figure 9A.3.2 Residential IRL Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipment Forecasts (65W

BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)............................................................. 9A­6

Figure 9A.3.3 Residential IRL Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipment Forecasts (10

Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity) .......................................................... 9A­7

9A­i
APPENDIX 9A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

9A.1 INTRODUCTION

In this appendix, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) presents shipment inputs and

results for two additional scenarios for incandescent reflector lamps. DOE presents the

standards­case market­share matrices, shipment forecasts, and cumulative shipment impacts for

IRL in the 65W BR lamp substitution sensitivity and 10 percent lumen increase sensitivity

scenarios. As discussed in Chapter 9, in the 65 Watt BR lamp substitution sensitivity scenario,

DOE assumes that a portion of IRL customers purchasing 50W PAR lamps will migrate toward a

lower efficacy 65 Watt BR lamp, as it represents a lower first­cost lamp design. In the 10

percent lumen increase scenario, DOE assumes that a portion of residential IRL consumers will

buy a more efficacious lamp at the same or higher wattage as they do in the base case. This

incorporation of non­energy­saving lamp designs results in an overall higher lumen output per

IRL in the residential sector. To quantify the percentage of consumers that purchase samewattage lamp designs, DOE assumes that the average initial lumen output of IRL of the standards

cases is 10 percent higher than that of the base case. Appendix 5A, 6A, and 7A contain

additional engineering, energy consumption, and price results related to these sensitivity

scenarios.

9A.2 STANDARDS­CASE MARKET­SHARE MATRICES

DOE constructed market­share matrices to characterize shipments of lamps in the

standards case. Table 9A.2.1 displays the commercial standards­case market­share matrix in the

65W BR lamp substitution sensitivity scenario. As seen below, in this sensitivity, DOE assumes

that at CSL1 and CSL2 approximately 7 percent of IRL consumers (specifically, those

purchasing the 50W PAR 30 baseline lamp) migrate to the 65W BR lamp by 2042. At CSL3 this

percentage increases to 14 percent, as the first­cost differential is much larger between the 64

Watt BR lamp and Improved HIR lamp design. Table 9A.2.2 displays the residential standardscase market­share matrix in the 65W BR lamp substitution sensitivity. Similar trends exist in the

residential sector as do in the commercial sector.

9A­1
Table 9A.2.1 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Commercial IRL Sockets (65W BR

Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

Candidate

Standard

Level Lamp Design

Price with

Sales Tax

Stock in

2011*

Stock in

2013**

Stock in

2042

$ % % %

90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 6.16 33 21

75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 6.16 26 16

Base Case

50W, 11.6 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, Halogen 5.56 22 14

70W, 18.0 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 7.73 8 21

60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 7.73 6 16

41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 7.12 5 14

Total 100 100

79W, 16.6 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, Improved

Halogen 7.55 32 21

66W, 15.9 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, Improved

Halogen 7.55 25 16

CSL1

44.3W, 14 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, Improved

Halogen 6.95 16 10

70W, 18 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 7.73 9 21

60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 7.73 7 16

41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 7.12 4 10

65W, 9.5 lm/W, 2,000 hrs, Incandescent 2.51 7 7

Total 100 100

70W, 18 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 7.73 41 41

60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 7.73 32 32

CSL2 41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 7.12 20 20

65W, 9.5 lm/W, 2,000 hrs, Incandescent 2.51 7 7

Total 100 100

66W, 19.8 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 9.05 41 41

55W, 19.1 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 9.05 32 32

CSL3 40W, 17 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 8.44 14 14

65W, 9.5 lm/W, 2,000 hrs, Incandescent 2.51 14 14

Total 100 100

*Base­case input only.

**Standards­case input only.

9A­2
Table 9A.2.2 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets (65W BR

Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

Candidate

Standard

Level Lamp Design

Price with

Sales Tax

Stock in

2011*

Stock in

2015**

Stock in

2042

$ % % %

90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 5.13 41 41

Base Case 75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 5.13 32 32

50W, 11.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Halogen 4.52 27 27

Total 100 100

79W, 16.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved

Halogen 6.52 41 41

CSL1

66W, 15.9 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved

Halogen 6.52 32 32

44.3W, 14 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved

Halogen 5.91 20 20

65W, 9.5 lm/W, 2,000 hrs, Incandescent 1.48 7 7

Total 100 100

70W, 18 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 6.70 41 41

60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 6.70 32 32

CSL2 41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 6.09 20 20

65W, 9.5 lm/W, 2,000 hrs, Incandescent 1.48 7 7

Total 100 100

66W, 19.8 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 8.01 41 41

55W, 19.1 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 8.01 32 32

CSL3 40W, 17 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 7.41 14 14

65W, 9.5 lm/W, 2,000 hrs, Incandescent 1.48 14 14

Total 100 100

*Base­case input only.

**Standards­case input only.

Table 9A.2.3 displays the residential standards­case market­share matrix in the 10 percent lumen

increase sensitivity. As seen in the table below, in this sensitivity scenario, DOE assumes that in

the standards case a portion of IRL consumers puchase same­wattage or higher­wattage lamp

designs.

9A­3
Table 9A.2.3 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets (10

Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity)

Candidate

Standard

Level Lamp Design

Price with

Sales Tax

Stock in

2011*

Stock in

2015**

Stock in

2042

$ % % %

90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 5.13 41 41

Base Case 75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 5.13 32 32

50W, 11.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Halogen 4.52 27 27

Total 100 100

79W, 16.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved

Halogen 6.52 41 41

66W, 15.9 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved

Halogen 6.52 19 19

CSL1 79W, 16.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved

Halogen 6.52 13 13

44.3W, 14 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved

Halogen 5.91 22 22

50W, 14.4 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved

Halogen 5.91 5 5

Total 100 100

70W, 18 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 6.70 31 31

100W, 20.3 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 6.70 10 10

60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 6.70 25 25

CSL2 80W, 18.8 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 6.70 7 7

41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 6.09 25 25

50W, 16.5 lm/W, 4000 hrs, HIR 6.09 2 2

Total 100 100

66W, 19.8 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 8.01 34 34

90W, 22.6 lm/W, 4000 hrs, Improved HIR 8.01 7 7

CSL3 55W, 19.1 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 8.01 29 29

90W, 22.6 lm/W, 4000 hrs, Improved HIR 8.01 3 3

40W, 17 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 7.41 27 27

Total 100 100

*Base­case input only.

**Standards­case input only.

9A.3 RESULTS

Figure 9A.3.1 present the shipments forecasts for the base case and standards cases for

commercial IRL in the 65W BR lamp substitution sensitivity.

9A­4
S

hip

m

e

nts (billio

ns)

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00

Base­Case Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 9A.3.1 Commercial IRL Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipment Forecasts (65W

BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

Figure 9A.3.2 present the shipments forecasts for the base case and standards cases for

residential IRL in the 65W BR lamp substitution sensitivity.

9A­5
0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

IRL Base­Case Forecast

IRL CSL1

IRL CSL2

IRL CSL3

Figure 9A.3.2 Residential IRL Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipment Forecasts (65W

BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

Figure 9A.3.3 present the shipments forecasts for the base case and standards cases for

residential IRL in the 10 percent lumen increase sensitivity.

S

hip

m

e

nts (billio

ns)

0.12

0.10

0.08

9A­6
0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

S

hip

m

e

nts (billio

ns)

Base­Case Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 9A.3.3 Residential IRL Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipment Forecasts (10

Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity)

Table 9A.3.1 through Table 9A.3.3 present the cumulative shipment impacts for

residential and commercial IRL in the 65W BR lamp substitution sensitivity and the 10 percent

lumen increase sensitivity scenarios.

Table 9A.3.1 Commercial Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Cumulative Shipments Impacts

Caused by Standards over the Period 2012–2042 (65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

Candidate Standard Level IRL Cumulative Impacts (billions of lamps)

1 ­0.157

2 ­0.157

3 ­0.620

Table 9A.3.2 Residential Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Cumulative Shipments Impacts

Caused by Standards over the Period 2012–2042 (65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

Candidate Standard Level IRL Cumulative Impacts (billions of lamps)

1 ­0.261

2 ­0.261

3 ­0.685

9A­7
Table 9A.3.3 Residential Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Cumulative Shipments Impacts

Caused by Standards over the Period 2012–2042 (10 Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity)

Candidate Standard Level IRL Cumulative Impacts (billions of lamps)

1 ­0.340

2 ­0.353

3 ­0.920

9A­8