MACT Existing UPL for Mercury Using Pooled Variance, Corrected for Temporal Autocorrelation with Intraquarry Variability Emissions (lb/ton feed) Runs Kiln ID 1259Kiln ID 1286Kiln ID 1302Kiln ID 1315Kiln ID 1364 1 18.88 27.01 16.82 16.67 26.00 2 15.77 28.73 12.97 12.76 28.27 3 20.71 28.67 9.49 9.57 27.59 4 22.61 27.95 10.43 10.58 37.25 5 19.67 7.66 9.44 9.64 28.78 6 25.90 7.49 11.47 11.71 7.72 7 22.63 7.58 13.59 13.83 42.98 8 21.21 8.12 12.85 12.72 25.28 9 5.07 23.93 4.30 4.38 24.67 10 44.96 22.61 12.04 12.29 25.39 11 34.37 23.06 21.41 20.55 24.24 12 13.46 24.21 13.65 13.82 23.34 13 11.57 25.25 12.44 12.54 25.04 14 13.90 21.47 16.52 16.66 23.65 15 27.43 25.53 22.02 22.51 26.83 16 25.55 25.89 12.31 12.31 27.19 17 21.95 29.34 15.39 15.11 24.25 18 12.10 26.03 13.51 13.59 25.28 19 12.83 7.60 3.75 3.82 24.83 20 9.18 24.26 9.40 9.59 23.88 21 8.74 23.68 10.88 11.06 23.69 22 17.63 19.77 12.45 12.35 21.74 23 47.30 21.97 11.76 11.89 26.04 24 33.53 22.80 11.73 11.75 7.28 25 19.11 23.23 60.15 61.31 26.36 26 25.09 31.2420.59 19.93 36.12 27 14.94 30.64 13.96 14.10 28.96 28 17.89 32.58 21.90 21.19 29.82 29 24.46 28.53 12.74 11.85 29.05 30 39.85 28.41 27.66 31 12.95 32 33 34 35

ni = number runs = 31.00 29.0030.00 30.00 29.00

ni-1 30.00 28.00 29.00 29.00 28.00

= sum of (ni-1) 268.00means 21.33 22.65 15.28 15.26 25.91

Mean 20.69 #source mean = mean of source means

N = Number sources= 9.00 #because UPL is based on source means

m= number future runs = 30.00

t-statistic

Assuming Correlated variables

correlation

0.14 0.54 0.10 0.08 -0.19 Pooled stdev= 9.62605957 Variance data = 92.6610229*** defined as sdev^2 adjustment for temporal correlation= 111.996455*** defined as before variance* (1+corr) intra quarry variance=116.012236*** defined as (RSD*Mean)^2

adjustment for temporal correlation= 175.953767 total variance 287.950222*** QUESTION FOR MIKE: DOES TEMPORAL CORRELATION AFFECT THE QUARRY OR ONLY THE KILNS? *** IN OTHER WORDS, WHAT YOU GET FROM THE QUARRY ONE DAY DEPENDS OF WHAT YOU GET THE PREVIOUS DAYS? *** If NOT, THEN ONLY THE MEASUREMENTS HAVE TEMPORAL CORRELATION, IF YES: THEN BOTH THE VARIANCE OF *** DATA AND INTRAQUARRY VARIANCE NEED TO BE MULTIPLIED BY (1+CORR)
Variance = Variance pooled, intraquarry data adjusted for temporal correlation 287.95#calculated as variance*(1+average(temporal correlation)) *** if the data in columns Oto Q are the intraquarry data, we can calculate the temporal correlation there and use it for the adjustment of the intraquarry varianceSQRT(Variance*(1/n+1/m)) 5.98

UPL-- source mean and variance pooled data, including intraquarry variability 34.69lb/MM tons feed

57.24lb/MM tons clinkerMACT Existing UPL for Mercury Using Pooled Variance, Corrected for Temporal Autocorrelation with Intraquarry Variability

Kiln ID 1435Kiln ID 1484Kiln ID 1650Kiln ID 1594 30.50 30.5013.22 13.60 27.52 27.52 7.64 30.05 29.07 29.07 9.53 32.88 24.64 24.64 1.71 32.59 23.82 23.82 7.66 28.73 24.52 24.52 0.32 34.14 25.14 25.1414.12 32.33 26.46 26.4613.70 23.38 25.49 25.4912.72 35.00 38.60 38.6011.24 32.91 24.65 24.6510.56 31.44 29.45 29.45 9.82 27.48 25.04 25.0412.92 28.55 29.91 29.9113.70 25.19 1.43 1.43 9.46 25.63 5.07 5.07 7.66 10.01 25.97 25.9712.36 28.03 29.30 29.3013.98 30.27 26.93 26.93 9.40 25.85 26.63 26.63 8.68 33.36 24.82 24.82 7.60 29.10 24.11 24.11 7.62 26.91 22.00 22.00 7.63 29.70 22.00 22.00 8.20 30.02 22.00 22.0011.27 10.91 35.74 35.74 8.93 11.87 24.47 24.47 7.64 14.04 38.69 38.69 7.60 13.49 27.28 27.28 15.72 26.93 26.93 13.75 23.83 23.83 24.11 24.11 27.28 27.28 24.82 24.82 24.47 24.47

35.00 35.0028.00 30.00

34.00 34.0027.00 29.0025.5125.51 9.53 25.23

2.34=tinv((1-.99)*2,df)

0.24 0.24 0.20 0.53 Revised 3 quarry, intraquarry variability RSD=

0.52

*** QUESTION FOR MIKE: DOES TEMPORAL CORRELATION AFFECT THE QUARRY OR ONLY THE KILNS? *** IN OTHER WORDS, WHAT YOU GET FROM THE QUARRY ONE DAY DEPENDS OF WHAT YOU GET THE PREVIOUS DAYS? *** If NOT, THEN ONLY THE MEASUREMENTS HAVE TEMPORAL CORRELATION, IF YES: THEN BOTH THE VARIANCE OF *** DATA AND INTRAQUARRY VARIANCE NEED TO BE MULTIPLIED BY (1+CORR)

#calculated as variance*(1+average(temporal correlation)) *** if the data in columns Oto Q are the intraquarry data, we can calculate the temporal correlation there and useMACT New UPL for Mercury Using Pooled Variance, Corrected for Temporal Autocorrelation with Intraquarry Variability - 07/28/10, 3:10PM Emissions (lb/ton feed) Runs MACT NewKiln 1650 1 13.22 2 7.64 3 9.53 4 1.71 5 7.66 6 0.32 7 14.12 8 13.70 9 12.72 10 11.24 11 10.56 12 9.82 13 12.92 14 13.70 15 9.46 16 7.66 17 12.36 18 13.98 19 9.40 20 8.68 21 7.60 22 7.62 23 7.63 24 8.20 25 11.27 26 8.93 27 7.64 28 7.60 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

ni = number runs = 28.00

ni-1 27.00

= sum of (ni-1) 27.00 Mean 9.53 #source mean = mean of source means n to be used with 1 source= ni 28.00m= number future runs = 30.00

t-statistic = quantile t-distribution with df degrees of freedom at .99 confidence level = Assuming Correlated variables

correlation =correl(data-last,data - first obs)

Stdev= 3.35 Variance data = 11.2533357 *** defined as sdev^2 adjustment for temporal correlation=13.4477546 *** defined as before variance* (1+corr) intra quarry variance= 24.62682492 *** defined as (RSD*Mean)^2 adjustment for temporal correlation= 37.35108256 *** if the data in columns Oto Q are the intraquarry data, we can calculate the temporal correlation there and use it for the adjustment of the intraquarry variance total variance 50.79883717 *** defined as variance of data + intra quarry variance

Variance = Variance pooled, intraquarry data adjusted for temporal correlation 50.7988372
SQRT(Variance*(1/n+1/m)) 1.87284243

UPL-- source mean and variance pooled data, including intraquarry variability 14.1634054lb/MM tons feed 23.3696189lb/MM tons clinker

Recall the formula for the variance is N is the number of sampling units used in the sample: in this case the number of data pointsMACT New UPL for Mercury Using Pooled Variance, Corrected for Temporal Autocorrelation with Intraquarry Variability - 07/28/10, 3:10PM

#source mean = mean of source means2.47

0.24 Revised 3 quarry, intraquarry variability RSD=

0.52

*** if the data in columns Oto Q are the intraquarry data, we can calculate the temporal correlation there and use it for the adjustment of the intraquarry variance *** defined as variance of data + intra quarry variance

N is the number of sampling units used in the sample: in this case the number of data points*** if the data in columns Oto Q are the intraquarry data, we can calculate the temporal correlation there and use it for the adjustment of the intraquarry variance