V II

- 1 Appendix VII

Onroad Inventories

1 .0 On

- road Sources

The onroad source component s of the 2007 , 2009 and 2025 fine particle (PM 2.5 ), oxides of

nitrogen (NO

x ) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) annual emission inventor ies are estimate s of exhaust

(i.e., tailpipe) and brake/tire particle emissions from all onroad vehicles (gasoline

, diesel and

natural gas fueled) operating i n the New Jersey counties within the maintenance area. In

general, the emissions from this component of the emission inventory are calculated b y

multiplying activity level s (including vehicle starts, operation times, speeds and miles traveled)

by emission factor s

. Activity estimates are generated by the Metropolitan Planning

Organizations (MPO) using their travel demand model s (TDM). The emiss ion s are calculated

using the latest version of the USEPA MOVES computer model ( currently MOVES2010a

Version 2010/08/26)

. The MOVES model is run in the inventory mode. A custom software

package (PPSUITE)

, developed and licensed by AECOM

, is used for the counties within the

North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority (NJTPA) to preprocess the MOVES inp u t data

( including the TDM outputs ), run MOVES, and post

- process the emissions from the MOVES

model including the generation of reports for the presentati on of emission inventory results. For

the counties within the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC), the MOVES

County Data Manager are used to set up the MOVES runs and the MOVES summary reports

are used to present the MOVES generated emiss ions.

1.1 Activity Estimates

The vehicle activity estimates used in th ese emission inventor ies w ere calculated with the TDM s

used by the MPO s that cover the thirteen counties of concern in this PM 2.5 maintenance plan

. The M PO s are the N JTPA and the DVR PC

.

In general, TDM s use demographic data, such as population, employment, housing density, and

shopping patterns, to estimate the demand for travel in the modeled area. This travel demand

is then distributed throughout the available roadways and transit routes, referred to as links.

The model is based on an algorithm which takes into account factors such as transit fares, tolls,

traffic volume, and time of day to estimate how many people travel from one point to another on

any given link. The number of vehicles traveling on each link is then used to estimate the speed

of travel and the total number of vehicle miles traveled in a day (DVMT) . The TDM output s are

adjusted for any vehicle miles traveled that are not accounted for in the model, such as

redu ctions due to transportation control measures or increases due to local (off

- model) roadway

traffic. Since the highway networks cover all thirteen counties in the two maintenance areas,

there are no areas for which activity is not included. Attachment 1 p resents the DVMT used for

the 2007 , 2009 and 2025 inventor ies.

1 .1. 1 NJTPA

The current North Jersey Regional Transportation Model Enhanced (NJRTM

- E) was revalidated

for the year 2008. The NJRTM

- E estimated DVMT is approximately 101% of the regional

obse rved DVMT. The comparisons between estimated and observed DVMT by facility type

were within a range of 92% to 119%.

For the purpose of emissions analyses, Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS)

adjustment files were created to account for the DVMT taking place on the non

- modeled roadsV II

- 2 within the MPO region. The HPMS adjustment files account for the difference s between the

model DVMT and the regional DVMT data collected by the HPMS.

The NJRTM

- E DVMT was developed for each month. The monthly adjust ment factors were

developed by first comparing model DVMT with the DVMT values from the HPMS database,

thus correcting for any variation between the annual average daily traffic volumes. A second

adjustment addresses seasonal variation using seasonal fact ors by both facility and county.

The annual PM 2.5 , NO

x and SO 2 inventor ies are calculated as the sum of emissions for all twelve

months

.

The NJRTM

- E includes a large buffer area surrounding the NJTPA region; therefore, the only

external trips consider ed were those by truck. The NJRTM

- E contain s t hree types of external

truck trips (External

- External, External

- Internal

, and External

- Internal

- External ) used to estimate

activity moving into and out of the NJTPA region.

• E xternal

- E xternal truck trips: have both origin and destinatio n outside of the modeled

region and are commonly referred to as “pass

- through” trips.

• External

- Internal truck trips: have one trip “end” inside the model region while the other

trip “end” is outside of the region.

• Externa l

- Intern al

- External truck trips: similar to external

- external trips except they are

routed through an intermediate truck terminal.

The truck trips at the edge of the respective Metropolitan Planning Organization models were

estimated using observed counts a nd classification data provided by the New Jersey

Department of Transportation and other agencies such as the Port Authority of New York and

New Jersey, to help ensure traffic volume consistency at the boundaries between the

Metropolitan Planning Organizat ions.

1 .1 .2 DVRPC

The DVRPC’s travel demand model follows the traditional steps of trip generation, trip

distribution, modal split, and traffic assignment. However, an iterative feedback loop is

employed from the traffic assignment to the trip distribut ion step. The feedback loop ensures

that the congestion levels used by the model when determining trip origins and destinations are

equivalent to those that result from the traffic assignment step.

Additionally, the iterative model structure allows trip

- ma king patterns to change in response to

changes in traffic volumes, congestion levels, and improvements to the transportation system.

The DVRPC travel demand model is segregated into separate peak, midday, and evening time

periods. This segregation begins during trip generation whe n factors are used to separate daily

trips into time

- period specific travel. The enhanced process then utilizes separate model chains

for peak, midday, and evening travel simulation runs. Time of day sensitive inputs to the models

such as highway capacities and transit service levels are segregated to be reflective of time

period specific conditions. Capacity factors are used to allocate daily highway capacity to each

time period.

The first step in the DVRPC modeling process invo lves generating the number of trips that are

produced by, and destined for, each traffic zone and cordon station throughout the DVRPC

region. Internal trip generation is based on estimates of demographic and employment data,

while external trips are deriv ed from cordon line traffic counts. The latter also include s trips that

pass through the D VPRC region. Trip distribution is the process whereby the trip endsV II

- 3 established during trip generation are linked together to form origin

- destination patterns in tri p

table format. Peak, midday, and evening trip ends are distributed separately. The modal split

model is also run separately for the peak, midday, and evening time periods. The modal split

model calculates the fraction of each person

- trip interchange in the trip table, which should be

allocated to transit, and then assigns the residual to the highway side. The choice between

highway and transit usage is made on the basis of comparative cost, travel time, frequency of

service, and auto ownership. For hi ghway trips, the final step in the simulation process is the

assignment of current or future vehicle trips to the highway network. The assignment model is

capacity restrained in that congestion levels are considered when determining the best route.

After equilibrium is achieved, the transit trip tables are assigned to the transit network to

produce link and route passenger volumes.

The DVRPC's travel demand model was validated in 2008 for 2005 conditions. This validation

included a comparison of simulate d and counted traffic volumes at 480 locations that crossed a

series of 15 screenlines and an outer cordon. As part of the validation exercise, simulated

transit ridership was also compared to passenger counts. The total differences were 3.2

percent for highways and 4.4 percent for transit.

Traffic volumes crossing the travel demand model boundary, or cordon, are controlled through

an extensive traffic counting program. The DVRPC generally counts traffic at all of its cordon

crossings every five years. Future year traffic volumes at cordon stations are projected by first

extrapolating historical trends and then adjusting these trends to account for the long range

population and employment forecasts in the counties surrounding the DVPRC region. The

DVRP C develops monthly and seasonal traffic variation factors that are derived from the

Pennsylvania and New Jersey Departments of Transportation continuous traffic counting

stations. These stations produce traffic volumes for every day of the year and are us ed to

calculate monthly and seasonal factors by federal functional class.

2.0 MO VES Model Inputs

The NJDEP used the US EPA’s recently released MOVES2010 a (MOtor Vehicle Emission

Simulator) to estimate air pollution emissions from onroad mobile sources i ncluding buses, cars,

trucks and motorcycles. MOVES2010 a replaces MOBILE6.2, the previous mobile source

model. MOVES input files are somewhat more detailed than the MOBILE6.2 input files. To

assist in the transition to the new model, USEPA developed sof tware tools to convert

MOBILE6.2 inputs for MOVES. In addition, the MOVES model includes a preprocessing tool

called the County Data Manager (CDM) to convert spreadsheet

- based information to tables in a

MySQL database re quired by MOVES.

The MOVES input f iles that contain local (non

- default) data are included in Attachment 2 and

i nclud e :

• I/M Coverage

• Early NLEVs and MYLEVS Tables

• AgeDistribution

• AverageSpeedDistribution

• FuelSupply

• FuelFormulation

• MeteorologyData

• RampFraction

• RoadTypeDistribution

• So urceTypePopulationV II

- 4 • HPMSVTypeYear

• MonthVMTFraction

• DayVMTFraction

• HourVMTFraction

The development of each of these MOVES inputs is discussed in subsequent subsections.

2

. 1 I/M Coverage

General

• As a first step, all rows of data in the MOVES default tab le s for New Jersey counties for

a given year need to be copied into the IMCoverage file and designated “N” in the

“useIMyn” column. If this is not done MOVES will not run; error messages will be

generated

.

• It is necessary to develop a unique I/M input rep resentation for each analysis year

because the model years (MYs) that certain programs cover are a function of analysis

year.

• The pollutant processes assumed to be covered by I/M from the MOVES default table s

for New Jersey counties were used.

• The MOVES d efaults included representations for both fuel type 1 (gasoline) and fuel

type 5 (ethanol

– anything greater than E10). In case appreciable amounts of E85 are

assumed to be consumed in NJ in future years, the IM program representations for fuel

type 1 were copied (added) for fuel type 5 for the 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, and

2025 representations.

• No adjustments of the compliance factors for portions of vehicle types (such as certain

vehicle weight ranges) that are exempt from I/M because th is is not a si gnificant factor

for New Jersey. In some cases vehicles over 8500 lbs are subject to an idle test instead

of the more stringent TSI or OBD test but MOVES does not allow the specification of

more than one test for a given vehicle type/model year/pollutant process. Therefore, the

most accurate MOVES input representation is to assume that, for a given model year

range, the entire vehicle class receives the test that is administered to the majority of the

vehicles in that class.

• The new vehicle exemption is 4 years for the 2007 and 2009 representations and 5

years for the 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, and 2025 representations.

• IM Program ID’s were established as summarized in the following table.

TestStandardID can be found in the MOVES Users Guide

D = IMPr ogramID used in MOVES default table (not used to avoid confusion)

X = IMProgramID not currently used

endModelYearID for 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020 and 2025 I / M programs

shownV II

- 5 Table 1

IM Program ID’s Used in the New J ersey MOVES Runs

IMProgr

amID InspectF

req testStandardsID begModel

YearID endModelYearID

1 D D D D

2 2 11 (idle) 1970 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020

3 2 11 1970 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2025

4 2 22 (5015) 1981 1995

5 D D D D

6 2 41 (gas cap) 1970 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2025

7 D D D D

8 D D D D

9 2 51 (exhOBD) 1996 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020

10 D D D D

11 2 12 (TSI) 1981 1995

12 1 41 1970 1995

13 1 45 (GC/evOBD) 1996 2007, 20 09, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2025

14 1 22 1981 1995

15 2 41 1970 1995

16 1 51 1996 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2025

17 2 41 1970 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020

18 2 45 1996 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2 020

19 1 12 1981 1995

20 1 11 1970 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2025

21 2 41 1970 1995

22 2 45 1996 2000

23 2 43 (evOBD) 2001 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020

24 1 41 1970 1995

25 1 45 1996 2000

26 1 43 2001 2007, 2009, 2 013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2025

27 1 41 1970 2000

2007 and 2009 IM Representations

• Compliance Factor inputs were calculated as follows:

First the overall effectiveness of the NJ I/M program was calculated assuming an 80/20

CIF/PIF split and that PIF s are 80% as effective as CIFs: 0.8(1.0) + 0.2(0.8) = 0.96.

Then, based on recent data, the waiver rate is either 0.01% for exhaust OBD and ASM

5015 tests or 0.0% for the other exhaust and all evaporative tests.

Also, based on recent data, the compliance r ate is currently about 96%.

Therefore the overall compliance factors are:

0.96 X 0.9999 X 0.96 = 0.9215 for programs with a waiver and

0.96 X 1.0000 X 0.96 = 0.9216 for programs without a waiver.V II

- 6 Table 2

2007 and 2009 Exhaust I/M Programs

MOVES us e

type Description MY Range Test Type Freq New Vehicle

Exemption?

21. Passenger

Car 1981

- 1995

1996

– 2003/5 ASM 5015 init

exhOBD 2

2 NA

Yes

31. Passenger

Truck Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other 2

- axle / 4

- tire trucks used primarily for

personal tra nsportation 1981

- 1995

1996

– 2003/5 ASM 5015 init

exhOBD 2

2 NA

Yes

32. Light

Commercial

Truck Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other

trucks 2

- axle / 4

- tire trucks used

primarily for commercial

applications. Expected to differ from

passenger trucks in terms of annual

mileage, operation by time

of day 1981

- 1995

1996

– 2003/5 ASM 5015 init

exhOBD 2

2 NA

Yes

51. Refuse Truck Garbage and recycling trucks Expected

to differ from other single unit trucks

in terms of drive

schedule, roadway type distributions,

operation by time of day NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

52. Single

- Unit

Short

- Haul

Truck Single

- unit trucks with majority of

operation within 200 miles of home

base 1970

– 2007/9 idle 2 No

53. Single

- Unit

Long

- Haul

Truck Single

- unit t rucks with majority of

operation outside of 200 miles of

home base 1970

– 2007/9 idle 2 No

54. Motor

Home 1970

– 2003/5 idle 2 Yes

41. Intercity Bus Buses which are not transit buses or

school buses, e.g. those used primarily

by commercial carriers for

city

- to

- city transport. NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

42. Transit Bus Buses used for public transit. NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

43. School Bus School and church buses. 1981

- 1995

1996

– 2007/9 ASM 5015 ini t

exhOBD 1

1 NA

No

61. Combination

Short

- Haul

Truck Combination trucks with majority of

operation within 200 miles of home

base NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

62. Combination

Long

- Haul

Truck Combination trucks with majority of

operati on outside of 200 miles of

home base NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

11. Motorcycle NA None NA NAV II

- 7 Table 3

2007 and 2009 Evaporative I/M Programs

MOVES use

type Description MY Range Test Type Freq New Vehicle

Exemption?

21. Pa ssenger

Car 1970

- 1995

1996

– 2003/5 Gascap

Gascap/evpOBD 2

2 NA

Yes

31. Passenger

Truck Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other 2

- axle / 4

- tire trucks used primarily for

personal transportation 1970

- 1995

1996

– 2003/5 Gascap

Gascap/evpOBD 2

2 NA

Yes

32. Light

Commercial

Truck Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other

trucks 2

- axle / 4

- tire trucks used

primarily for commercial

applications. Expected to differ from

passenger trucks in terms of annual

mileage, operation by time

of day 1970

- 1995

1996

– 2003/5 Gasc ap

Gascap/evpOBD 2

2 NA

Yes

51. Refuse Truck Garbage and recycling trucks Expected

to differ from other single unit trucks

in terms of drive

schedule, roadway type distributions,

operation by time of day NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

52. Single

- Unit

Short

- Haul

Truck Single

- unit trucks with majority of

operation within 200 miles of home

base 1970

– 2007/9 Gascap 2 No

53. Single

- Unit

Long

- Haul

Truck Single

- unit trucks with majority of

operation outside of 200 miles of

home base 1970

– 2007/9 Gascap 2 No

54. Motor Home 1970

– 2003/5 Gascap 2 Yes

41. Intercity Bus Buses which are not transit buses or

school buses, e.g. those used primarily

by commercial carriers for

city

- to

- city transport. NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

42. Transit Bus Buses used for public transit. NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

43. School Bus School and church buses. 1970

- 1995

1996

– 2007/9 Gascap

Gascap/evpOBD 1

1 NA

No

61. Combination

Short

- Haul

Truck Combination trucks with majority of

operation within 200 miles of home

base NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

62. Combination

Long

- Haul

Truck Combination trucks with majority of

operation outside of 200 miles of

home base NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be a ll

diesel NA NA

11. Motorcycle NA None NA NA

2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020 and 2025 IM Representations

• Compliance Factor inputs were calculated as follows:

First the overall effectiveness of the NJ I/M program was calculated assuming an 80/20

CIF/PIF split and that PIFs are 95.9% as effective as CIFs: 0.8(1.0) + 0.2(0.959) =

0.9918.V II

- 8 The waiver rate is now 0%.

The compliance rate is 96%.

Therefore the overall compliance factors are:

0.96 X 1.0 X 0.9918 = 0.9521 for all programs

Table 4

2013, 2014, 20 15, 2017, 2020 and 2025 Exhaust I/M Programs

MOVES use

type Description MY Range Test Type Freq New Vehicle

Exemption?

21. Passenger

Car 1981

- 1995

1996

- Pres TSI

exhOBD 2

2 NA

Yes

31. Passenger

Truck Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other 2

- axle / 4

- ti re trucks used primarily for

personal transportation 1981

- 1995

1996

- Pres TSI

exhOBD 2

2 NA

Yes

32. Light

Commercial

Truck Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other

trucks 2

- axle / 4

- tire trucks used

primarily for commercial

applications. Expected to differ f rom

passenger trucks in terms of annual

mileage, operation by time

of day 1981

- 1995

1996

- Pres TSI

exhOBD 1

1 NA

No

51. Refuse Truck Garbage and recycling trucks Expected

to differ from other single unit trucks

in terms of drive

schedule, roadway type distributions,

operation by time of day NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

52. Single

- Unit

Short

- Haul

Truck Single

- unit trucks with majority of

operation within 200 miles of home

base 1970

- Pres idle 1 No

53. Single

- Unit

Long

- Haul

Truck Single

- unit trucks with majority of

operation outside of 200 miles of

home base 1970

- Pres idle 1 No

54. Motor Home 1970

- Pres idle 2 Yes

41. Intercity Bus Buses which are not transit buses or

school buses, e.g. those used primarily

by commercial ca rriers for

city

- to

- city transport. NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

42. Transit Bus Buses used for public transit. NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

43. School Bus School and church buses. 1981

- 1995

1996

- Pres TSI

ex hOBD 1

1 NA

No

61. Combination

Short

- Haul

Truck Combination trucks with majority of

operation within 200 miles of home

base NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

62. Combination

Long

- Haul

Truck Combination trucks with majority of

operation outside of 200 miles of

home base NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

11. Motorcycle NA None NA NAV II

- 9 Table 5

2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020 and 2025 Evaporative I/M Programs

MOVES use

type Description MY Range Test Type Freq New Vehic le

Exemption?

21. Passenger

Car 1970

- 1995

1996

- 2000

2001

- Pres Gascap

Gascap/evOBD

evOBD 2

2

2 NA

NA

Yes

31. Passenger

Truck Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other 2

- axle / 4

- tire trucks used primarily for

personal transportation 1970

- 1995

1996

- 20 00

2001

- Pres Gascap

Gascap/evOBD

evOBD 2

2

2 NA

NA

Yes

32. Light

Commercial

Truck Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other

trucks 2

- axle / 4

- tire trucks used

primarily for commercial

applications. Expected to differ from

passenger trucks in terms of annual

mi leage, operation by time

of day 1970

- 1995

1996

- 2000

2001

- Pres Gascap

Gascap/evOBD

evOBD 1

1

1 NA

NA

No

51. Refuse Truck Garbage and recycling trucks Expected

to differ from other single unit trucks

in terms of drive

schedule, roadway type distribut ions,

operation by time of day NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

52. Single

- Unit

Short

- Haul

Truck Single

- unit trucks with majority of

operation within 200 miles of home

base 1970

- 2000 Gascap 1 No

53. Single

- Unit

Long

- Haul

Truck Single

- unit trucks with majority of

operation outside of 200 miles of

home base 1970

- 2000 Gascap 1 No

54. Motor Home 1970

- Pres Gascap 2 Yes

41. Intercity Bus Buses which are not transit buses or

school buses, e.g. those used primarily

by commercial carrie rs for

city

- to

- city transport. NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

42. Transit Bus Buses used for public transit. NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

43. School Bus School and church buses. 1970

- 1995

1996

- 2000

2001

- Pre s Gascap

Gascap/evOBD

evOBD 1

1

1 NA

NA

No

61. Combination

Short

- Haul

Truck Combination trucks with majority of

operation within 200 miles of home

base NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

62. Combination

Long

- Haul

Truck Combination trucks with majority of

operation outside of 200 miles of

home base NA None

– fleet is

assumed to be all

diesel NA NA

11. Motorcycle NA None NA NAV II

- 10 2

. 2 Early NLEVs and MYLEVS Tables

The MOVES inputs to represent New Jersey’s participation in the Nationa l Low Emitting Vehicle

(NLEV) and New Jersey Low Emission Vehicle (adoption of the California Low Emission Vehicle

(LEV) program) programs were developed pursuant to the USEPA instructions at

h ttp://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/tools.htm

. T he USEPA instructions are for using

California Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) inputs, Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) inputs, and National

Low Emitting Vehicle (NLEV) inputs in certain northeast states in MOVES. T he US EPA provided

these inputs in the form of two databases and one spreadsheet file. The emission rates in these

files are for use only in states other than California that adopted California LEV standards, and

states in the Ozone Transport Commission (OT C) that received early implementation of NLEV

standards. The New Jersey inputs were developed to represent it’s early participation in the

NLEV program and the implementation of the California LEV program starting with the 2009

model year. The two databa ses are provided electronically in Attachment 2

.

2 .3 Age Distribution

The age distribution factors for each MOVES vehicle type have been estimated for the New

Jersey fleet using a combination of: New Jersey vehicle registration data, MOVES default data,

and converted MOBILE6 data. The age distribution factors for 2007 were primarily based on

New Jersey vehicle registration data for 2007. For 2008 t he data from the various sources w ere

used to estimate the coefficients of a polynomial that represented a best fit of the data based on

maximizing the R

- squared for the curve fitting process. The values from the polynomial were

then used for each year for the age distribution fractions. This resulted in a smooth curve of the

age distribution factors; as expe cted by the steady real

- world retirement of vehicles as they age.

For year zero the actual age fractions were used, instead of the values from the curve, because

for the first year represents a partial year of vehicle sales. Age distributions were dete rmined for

2007 and 2008. The 2008 age distributions were used for all years following 2008 because new

vehicle data after 2008 was atypical because it was impacted by the significant effects of the

recession. Use of atypical age distributions for future years would result in poor projections of

the likely nature of future vehicle age distributions. Further details regarding the establishment

of the age distribution factors for the New Jersey fleet are provided electronically in Attachment

2

.

2 .4 Average Speed Distribution

The average speed distribution s are based on outputs from the NJTPA and DVRPC regional

transportation model s

.

2 .5 Fuel Supply and Fuel Formulation

The MOVES inputs for gasoline formulations were consolidated from reformu lated gasoline

(RFG) survey data received by New Jersey from the USEPA (via email from Robert Anderson of

the USEPA dated 6/21/2011). The RFG data was combined to form three gasoline types:

summer gasoline representing the months of May, June, July, Augus t, and September; winter

gasoline representing the months of December, January and February; and shoulder gasoline

representing the months of March, April, October, and November. Separate g asoline types were

developed for 12 northern NJ counties (County ID ’s: 3, 13, 17, 19, 23, 25, 27, 31, 35, 37, 39 and

41) and 9 southern NJ counties (County ID’s: 1, 5, 7, 9, 11, 15, 21, 29 and 33). These county

groups correspond to the ozone nonattainment area boundaries. Gasoline types were

developed for years 2007, 20 08, 2009, and 2010. The projected gasoline types for 2011 andV II

- 11 2012 were assumed to be the same as 2010. The MOVES model assumes that the fuel

parameters for any years beyond 2012 are the same as the inputs for 2012. Gasoline

parameters were estimated to b e the average of all available sampling data for each

year/period/area. The only data missing from the US EPA RFG data, but required as a MOVES

input, is the RVP for the non

- summer months; data for this parameter w ere based on the

MOVES defaults for NJ (no te that this is generally not critical because RVP affects only VOCs

emissions which are an ozone precursor concern during the summer months). The 2012 RVP

MOVES defaults for the winter and shoulder fuels were used for 2010, 2011 and 2012 fuels.

Diesel sulfur levels are based on US EPA survey data for Petroleum Administration for Defense

District 1 ( PADD 1 ) received from the US EPA on July 14, 2009 which indicated actual average

sulfur levels of 32 ppm for 2007 and 15 ppm for 2008. A sulfur level of 11 ppm was assumed

for 2009+ based on USEPA guidance (EPA420

- R

- 04

- 013, August 2004, Technical Guidance on

the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation, pg 64). Partial PADD 1 survey data

for 2009 from the US EPA was less than 11ppm.

2 .6 Meteorology Data

The meteorology data required by MOVES are hourly values for temperature and relative

humidity. The meteorology data for the PM 2.5 and PM 2.5 precursor annual inven tor ies was

average monthly values based on historical averages

. T he MOVES meteorology file is provided

electronically in Attachment 2

.

2 .7 Ramp Fraction

For the NJTPA counties t he fraction of travel that occurs on highway ramps is generated by the

PPSUI TE software based on outputs from the NJTPA regional transportation model. For the

DVRPC counties the MOVES default value of 8% is used.

2 .8 Road Type Distribution

For the NJTPA counties the fraction of travel that occurs on each road type is generat ed by the

PPSUITE software based on outputs from the NJTPA regional transportation model and VMT

aggregation by facility type. For the DVRPC counties, a postprocessor tabulates the fraction of

travel that occurs on each road type based on outputs from the DVRPC regional travel model at

the county

- level.

2 .9 Source Type Population

Source type population (VPOP) is used by MOVES to calculate start and evaporative

emissions. Emissions estimated by MOVES are related to the population of vehicles in an area

in addition to the VMT for those vehicles and therefore local data must be developed for this

input.

The MOVES model characterizes vehicles into 13 source types, which are subsets of the 6

HPMS MOVES vehicle types. The US EPA believes that states should b e able to develop

population data for many of these source type categories from state motor vehicle registration

data ( for motorcycles, passenger cars, passenger trucks and light commercial trucks)

, transit

agencies, school districts, bus companies, and re fuse haulers ( for intercity, transit, school buses

and refuse trucks , respectively ). The population for other source types may be based on the

application of local VMT to national default travel rates.V II

- 12 New Jersey motor vehicle registration was assembled a nd aggregated by NJDEP. It was

collected for years 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 and arranged in MOVES input format for

each individual county. Growth factors were applied to create MOVES VPOP inputs for future

years. The growth factors were the VMT gr owth factors from the New Jersey travel demand

model (TDM) outputs. The TDM VMT growth factors reflect projected local economic growth

. VPOP growth rates were assumed to follow the same trend as the VMT growth rates. When the

travel model results were mi ssing for any of the future years the data were interpolated from the

travel model outputs for the nearest years.

If accurate local vehicle population data are not available for a particular source type, the

US EPA recommends applying a national default tra vel rate to local VMT in order to estimate

VPOP ( Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in

State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, USEPA, April 2010 , page 21).

Local VMT multiplied by the ratio of M OVES default population to MOVES default VMT provides

an estimate of local population

.

During several technical meetings with NJDOT, NJDEP, and the MPOs, it was decided to use

motor vehicle registration data for all vehicle types except for the long and sh ort haul trucks.

VMT

- based data were used for short and long haul trucks (source types 52, 53 , 61 and 62).

New Jersey believes that registration data are the most accurate data currently available for all

source type population s except for the short and long haul trucks. The VMT based population

developed pursuant to US EPA guidance was used for these source types since the registration

numbers are not as representative of actual time spent in each county for these types of

vehicles . MOVES runs with nation al default data were conducted and VMT/Population ratios

(daily miles) were estimated for each source type. This ratio was applied during the PPSUITE

network analysis to create VPOP input for each county in the analysis year from the travel

model generated VMT. For the DVRPC counties the estimation of VPOPs for the short and

long haul trucks is included in Attachment 2

.

In summary, f or the New Jersey emission s analys e s, MOVES source type population input s

were developed using a combination of vehicle reg istration and VMT

- based methods as

summarized below.

Table 6

Vehicle Population S ource s for the MOVES Source Type s



### MOVES Source Type Population Source

11 Motorcycle Registration

21 Passenger Car Registration

31 Passenger Truck Registration

32 Light Co mmercial Truck Registration

41 Intercity Bus Registration

42 Transit Bus Registration

43 School Bus Registration

51 Refuse Truck Registration

52 Single Unit Short

- Haul Truck VMT

- Based

53 Single Unit Long

- Haul Truck VMT

- Based

54 Motor Home Registrati on

61 Combination Short

- haul Truck VMT

- Based

62 Combination Long

- haul Truck VMT

- BasedV II

- 13 2 .10 HPMS VType Year

The VMT by vehicle type is based on the HPMS VMT data from the New Jersey Department of

Transportation. Growth factors for future years are fr om the NJTPA and DVRPC regional

transportation model s

.

2 .11 Month VMT Fraction

The VMT monthly fractions are based on the HPMS VMT seasonal factors provided by the New

Jersey Department of Transportation.

2 .12 Day VMT Fraction

The VMT daily fracti ons are based on MOVES default values and/or outputs from the TDMs

. DVRPC VMT daily fractions are based on day

- of

- the

- week and month

- of

- the

- year factors from

similar counties. DVRPC assumes each month has weekdays and weekends in a 5/2

proportion.

2 .13 Hour VMT Fraction

The VMT hourly fractions are based on MOVES default values and/or post

- processing of

outputs from the TDMs

.

3

. 0 Summary of On

- road Inventory Data

Table s 7 through 1 2 present the onroad source emission inventor ies by county and

no nattainment area

. Attachment 1 contains the e m ission inventories by MOVES vehicle type.

Table 7

2007 On

- road Annual Emission Inventor ies by County (Northern NAA)

Area VMT Exhaust

PM ECARBON OCARBON SO4 BRAKE TIRE Total

PM2.5 SO2 NOx

An nual

(million) Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons/Yr

2007 County

Bergen 7,866.2 622.6 326.5 294.2 2.0 68.5 15.2 706 110 16,459

Essex 4,879.1 352.7 202.6 148.9 1.2 27.6 8.7 389 58 9,629

Hudson 2,290. 0 208.0 119.9 87.4 0.7 17.1 4.4 229 30 5,357

Mercer 3,565.9 310.9 203.4 106.3 1.2 21.9 6.5 339 50 8,503

Middlesex 7,795.0 545.4 315.4 228.1 1.9 38.6 13.5 597 90 15,111

Monmouth 6,315.6 231.9 98.7 132.4 0.8 29.1 10.5 272 62 8,140

Morris 5,529.8 298. 8 161.2 136.5 1.1 25.1 9.3 333 60 9,288

Passaic 2,913.7 184.7 94.1 90.1 0.6 17.4 5.3 207 34 5,310

Somerset 3,230.7 195.9 111.9 83.3 0.8 15.9 5.7 218 36 6,083

Union 4,619.0 350.7 206.5 142.9 1.2 27.0 8.3 386 55 9,505

Totals: 49,004.9 3,301.6 1,840.3 1,450.1 11.2 288.2 87.3 3,677 586 93,385V II

- 14 Table 8

200 9 On

- road Annual Emission Inventories by County (Northern NAA)

Area VMT Exhaust

PM ECARBON OCARBON SO4 BRAKE TIRE Total

PM2.5 SO2 NOx

annual

(million) Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Y r Tons

/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons/Yr

200 9 County

Bergen 7,485.3 493.5 253.4 239.2 0.9 64.8 14.4 573 81 12,983

Essex 4,651.5 276.1 156.5 119.1 0.5 25.4 8.2 310 42 7,474

Hudson 2,170.9 155.0 87.2 67.6 0.3 15.8 4.1 175 21 4,021

Merce r 3,414.0 197.3 112.7 84.1 0.4 19.9 6.1 223 33 5,834

Middlesex 7,494.6 417.9 234.4 182.8 0.8 36.9 12.9 468 65 11,589

Monmouth 6,175.4 189.7 78.9 110.4 0.4 28.5 10.2 228 50 6,492

Morris 5,302.4 255.0 136.4 118.2 0.5 25.0 9.0 289 46 7,597

Passaic 2,9 04.9 159.3 78.8 80.3 0.3 18.2 5.3 183 27 4,405

Somerset 3,198.5 175.4 101.1 73.9 0.4 16.3 5.7 197 27 5,298

Union 4,456.4 279.1 158.7 119.9 0.5 25.4 7.9 312 40 7,413

Totals: 47,253.8 2,598.3 1,398.1 1,195.3 4.8 276.1 83.9 2,958 433 73,106

Table 9

2 0 25 On

- road Annual Emission Inventories by County (Northern NAA)

Area VMT Exhaust

PM ECARBON OCARBON SO4 BRAKE TIRE Total

PM2.5 SO2 NOx

annual

(million) Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons/Yr

2025 Count y

Bergen 8,091.8 149.5 32.8 115.7 1.0 71.9 15.6 237 98 3,624

Essex 5,063.5 78.4 19.1 58.7 0.5 29.3 9.0 117 51 1,967

Hudson 2,446.5 45.0 11.2 33.4 0.3 19.4 4.8 69 27 1,147

Mercer 4,139.3 58.8 12.7 45.7 0.4 23.7 7.4 90 40 1,920

Middlesex 8,465.9 124.6 29.0 94.8 0.9 46.7 15.0 186 83 3,201

Monmouth 6,749.4 83.7 18.4 64.8 0.5 33.3 11.4 128 63 1,905

Morris 5,913.0 80.2 18.2 61.6 0.5 27.9 10.0 118 56 2,033

Passaic 3,263.9 56.5 13.1 43.1 0.3 21.2 5.9 84 35 1,253

Somerset 3,700.5 48.7 11. 7 36.6 0.4 20.1 6.7 75 36 1,448

Union 4,792.8 75.3 18.0 56.8 0.5 29.5 8.6 113 48 2,047

Totals: 52,626.6 800.6 184.1 611.1 5.4 322.8 94.3 1,218 539 20,546V II

- 15 Table 10

2007 On

- road Annual Emission Inventories by County (Southern NAA)

Area VMT Ex haust

PM ECARBON OCARBON SO4 BRAKE TIRE Total

PM2.5 SO2 NOx

annual

(million) Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons/Yr

2007 County

Burlington 4,703.8 378.5 247.3 129.8 1.4 27.9 8.6 415 64 10,615

Camden 4 ,089.8 355.6 226.8 127.4 1.3 31.3 7.9 395 59 9,834

Gloucester 2,722.4 225.8 149.4 75.6 0.9 14.3 4.8 245 38 6,543

Totals: 11,515.9 959.9 623.6 332.7 3.6 73.5 21.3 1,055 161 26,992

Table 11

2009 On

- road Annual Emission Inventories by County (Southern N AA)

Area VMT Exhaust

PM ECARBON OCARBON SO4 BRAKE TIRE Total

PM2.5 SO2 NOx

annual

(million) Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons/Yr

2009 County

Burlington 4,508.8 238.8 133.3 105.1 0.5 26.4 8.1 273 43 7,320

Camden 3,905.4 215.3 120.3 94.6 0.4 24.7 7.1 247 38 6,556

Gloucester 2,658.9 140.0 78.0 61.7 0.3 14.4 4.7 159 25 4,378

Totals: 11,073.1 594.1 331.5 261.3 1.2 65.6 19.9 680 107 18,253

Table 12

2025 On

- road Annual Emission Inventories by County (Southern NAA)

Area VMT Exhaust

PM ECARBON OCARBON SO4 BRAKE TIRE Total

PM2.5 SO2 NOx

annual

(million) Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr Tons/Yr

2025 County

Burlington 5,559.2 71.7 15.3 55.9 0. 6 32.9 10 .1 115 54 2,505

Camden 4,363.2 58.5 12.7 45.4 0.5 27.3 7.9 94 43 2,028

Gloucester 3,409.3 44.9 9.7 34.9 0.3 18.8 6.0 70 33 1,563

Totals: 13,331.7 175. 2 37.6 136.2 1. 4 79.0 24.0 278 1 30 6,095

4 .0 Control Measure Emission Benefit s

Emission benefit s accrue from numerous existing control measures including: Federal Control

measures in the MOVES model, New Jersey gasoline vehicle I/M program and the New Jersey

Low Emission Vehicle program that began with the 2009 model year. A complete summary of

the control measures included in the emission inventories is summarized in Section 5.4 of this

SIP.V II

- 16 Emission benefits by nonattainment area were estimated by calculat ing the difference between

the base year emissions (2007) and the last year of the mainten ance period emissions (2025)

. Emisson benefits are summarized in the following tables:

Table 13

On

- road Annual Emission Benefits by County (Northern NAA)

Area Total

PM2.5 SO2 NOx

2007/2025

Difference Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr

County

Bergen 469 12 12,835

Essex 272 7 7,662

Hudson 160 3 4,210

Mercer 249 10 6,583

Middlesex 411 7 11,910

Monmouth 143

- 1 6,235

Morris 215 4 7,254

Passaic 124

- 1 4,057

Somerset 142 0 4,635

Union 273 7 7,457

Totals: 2,459 47 72,840

Table 14

On

- road Annual E mission Benefits by County (Southern NAA)

5 .0. Quality Assurance

Th e primary quality assurance activities for the on

- road emission estimates were the

performance of parallel MOVES runs by NJDEP staff on NJDEP computers and the MPO

representatives on their computers. This so

- called “benchmarking” activity is performed

whe never transportation conformity budgets are being developed. It is necessary that the

MPOs are able to exactly reproduce the MOVES inputs, MOVES methodologies, and MOVES

outputs because the on

- road emission inventories are being used to establish budgets that will

need to stay under when performing their subsequent transportation conformity determinations. Area Total

PM2.5 SO2 NOx

2007/2025

Difference Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr

County

Burlington 300 1 0 8,110

Camden 301 16 7,806

Gloucester 175 5 4,981

Totals: 776 3 1 20,896