VII-1

 Appendix VII

Onroad Inventories

1.0 On-road Sources

The onroad source components of the 2007, 2009 and 2025 fine particle (PM2.5), oxides of 

nitrogen (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) annual emission inventories are estimates of exhaust 

(i.e., tailpipe) and brake/tire particle emissions from all onroad vehicles (gasoline, diesel and 

natural gas fueled) operating in the New Jersey counties within the maintenance area. In 

general, the emissions from this component of the emission inventory are calculated by 

multiplying activity levels (including vehicle starts, operation times, speeds and miles traveled)

by emission factors. Activity estimates are generated by the Metropolitan Planning 

Organizations (MPO) using their travel demand models (TDM). The emissions are calculated 

using the latest version of the USEPA MOVES computer model (currently MOVES2010a 

Version 2010/08/26). The MOVES model is run in the inventory mode. A custom software 

package (PPSUITE), developed and licensed by AECOM, is used for the counties within the 

North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority (NJTPA) to preprocess the MOVES input data

(including the TDM outputs), run MOVES, and post-process the emissions from the MOVES 

model including the generation of reports for the presentation of emission inventory results. For 

the counties within the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC), the MOVES 

County Data Manager are used to set up the MOVES runs and the MOVES summary reports 

are used to present the MOVES generated emissions. 

1.1 Activity Estimates

The vehicle activity estimates used in these emission inventories were calculated with the TDMs

used by the MPOs that cover the thirteen counties of concern in this PM2.5 maintenance plan. 

The MPOs are the NJTPA and the DVRPC.

In general, TDMs use demographic data, such as population, employment, housing density, and 

shopping patterns, to estimate the demand for travel in the modeled area. This travel demand 

is then distributed throughout the available roadways and transit routes, referred to as links. 

The model is based on an algorithm which takes into account factors such as transit fares, tolls, 

traffic volume, and time of day to estimate how many people travel from one point to another on 

any given link. The number of vehicles traveling on each link is then used to estimate the speed 

of travel and the total number of vehicle miles traveled in a day (DVMT). The TDM outputs are

adjusted for any vehicle miles traveled that are not accounted for in the model, such as 

reductions due to transportation control measures or increases due to local (off-model) roadway 

traffic. Since the highway networks cover all thirteen counties in the two maintenance areas, 

there are no areas for which activity is not included. Attachment 1 presents the DVMT used for 

the 2007, 2009 and 2025 inventories.

1.1.1 NJTPA

The current North Jersey Regional Transportation Model Enhanced (NJRTM-E) was revalidated 

for the year 2008. The NJRTM-E estimated DVMT is approximately 101% of the regional 

observed DVMT. The comparisons between estimated and observed DVMT by facility type 

were within a range of 92% to 119%.

For the purpose of emissions analyses, Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) 

adjustment files were created to account for the DVMT taking place on the non-modeled roads 
VII-2

within the MPO region. The HPMS adjustment files account for the differences between the 

model DVMT and the regional DVMT data collected by the HPMS.

The NJRTM-E DVMT was developed for each month. The monthly adjustment factors were 

developed by first comparing model DVMT with the DVMT values from the HPMS database, 

thus correcting for any variation between the annual average daily traffic volumes. A second 

adjustment addresses seasonal variation using seasonal factors by both facility and county. 

The annual PM2.5, NOx and SO2 inventories are calculated as the sum of emissions for all twelve

months. 

The NJRTM-E includes a large buffer area surrounding the NJTPA region; therefore, the only 

external trips considered were those by truck. The NJRTM-E contains three types of external 

truck trips (External-External, External-Internal, and External-Internal-External) used to estimate 

activity moving into and out of the NJTPA region.

• External-External truck trips: have both origin and destination outside of the modeled 

region and are commonly referred to as “pass-through” trips.

• External-Internal truck trips: have one trip “end” inside the model region while the other

trip “end” is outside of the region.

• External-Internal-External truck trips: similar to external-external trips except they are 

routed through an intermediate truck terminal.

 

The truck trips at the edge of the respective Metropolitan Planning Organization models were 

estimated using observed counts and classification data provided by the New Jersey 

Department of Transportation and other agencies such as the Port Authority of New York and 

New Jersey, to help ensure traffic volume consistency at the boundaries between the 

Metropolitan Planning Organizations. 

1.1.2 DVRPC

The DVRPC’s travel demand model follows the traditional steps of trip generation, trip

distribution, modal split, and traffic assignment. However, an iterative feedback loop is

employed from the traffic assignment to the trip distribution step. The feedback loop ensures

that the congestion levels used by the model when determining trip origins and destinations are 

equivalent to those that result from the traffic assignment step.

Additionally, the iterative model structure allows trip-making patterns to change in response to 

changes in traffic volumes, congestion levels, and improvements to the transportation system.

The DVRPC travel demand model is segregated into separate peak, midday, and evening time 

periods. This segregation begins during trip generation when factors are used to separate daily 

trips into time-period specific travel. The enhanced process then utilizes separate model chains 

for peak, midday, and evening travel simulation runs. Time of day sensitive inputs to the models

such as highway capacities and transit service levels are segregated to be reflective of timeperiod specific conditions. Capacity factors are used to allocate daily highway capacity to each 

time period.

The first step in the DVRPC modeling process involves generating the number of trips that are 

produced by, and destined for, each traffic zone and cordon station throughout the DVRPC

region. Internal trip generation is based on estimates of demographic and employment data, 

while external trips are derived from cordon line traffic counts. The latter also includes trips that 

pass through the DVPRC region. Trip distribution is the process whereby the trip ends 
VII-3

established during trip generation are linked together to form origin-destination patterns in trip 

table format. Peak, midday, and evening trip ends are distributed separately. The modal split 

model is also run separately for the peak, midday, and evening time periods. The modal split 

model calculates the fraction of each person-trip interchange in the trip table, which should be 

allocated to transit, and then assigns the residual to the highway side. The choice between 

highway and transit usage is made on the basis of comparative cost, travel time, frequency of 

service, and auto ownership. For highway trips, the final step in the simulation process is the

assignment of current or future vehicle trips to the highway network. The assignment model is

capacity restrained in that congestion levels are considered when determining the best route.

After equilibrium is achieved, the transit trip tables are assigned to the transit network to 

produce link and route passenger volumes.

The DVRPC's travel demand model was validated in 2008 for 2005 conditions. This validation 

included a comparison of simulated and counted traffic volumes at 480 locations that crossed a 

series of 15 screenlines and an outer cordon. As part of the validation exercise, simulated 

transit ridership was also compared to passenger counts. The total differences were 3.2 

percent for highways and 4.4 percent for transit.

Traffic volumes crossing the travel demand model boundary, or cordon, are controlled through 

an extensive traffic counting program. The DVRPC generally counts traffic at all of its cordon 

crossings every five years. Future year traffic volumes at cordon stations are projected by first 

extrapolating historical trends and then adjusting these trends to account for the long range 

population and employment forecasts in the counties surrounding the DVPRC region. The 

DVRPC develops monthly and seasonal traffic variation factors that are derived from the 

Pennsylvania and New Jersey Departments of Transportation continuous traffic counting 

stations. These stations produce traffic volumes for every day of the year and are used to 

calculate monthly and seasonal factors by federal functional class.

2.0 MOVES Model Inputs

The NJDEP used the USEPA’s recently released MOVES2010a (MOtor Vehicle Emission 

Simulator) to estimate air pollution emissions from onroad mobile sources including buses, cars, 

trucks and motorcycles. MOVES2010a replaces MOBILE6.2, the previous mobile source 

model. MOVES input files are somewhat more detailed than the MOBILE6.2 input files. To 

assist in the transition to the new model, USEPA developed software tools to convert 

MOBILE6.2 inputs for MOVES. In addition, the MOVES model includes a preprocessing tool 

called the County Data Manager (CDM) to convert spreadsheet-based information to tables in a

MySQL database required by MOVES.

The MOVES input files that contain local (non-default) data are included in Attachment 2 and 

include:

• I/M Coverage

• Early NLEVs and MYLEVS Tables

• AgeDistribution 

• AverageSpeedDistribution 

• FuelSupply 

• FuelFormulation 

• MeteorologyData 

• RampFraction 

• RoadTypeDistribution 

• SourceTypePopulation 
VII-4

• HPMSVTypeYear

• MonthVMTFraction

• DayVMTFraction

• HourVMTFraction

The development of each of these MOVES inputs is discussed in subsequent subsections.

2.1 I/M Coverage

General 

• As a first step, all rows of data in the MOVES default tables for New Jersey counties for 

a given year need to be copied into the IMCoverage file and designated “N” in the 

“useIMyn” column. If this is not done MOVES will not run; error messages will be 

generated.

• It is necessary to develop a unique I/M input representation for each analysis year 

because the model years (MYs) that certain programs cover are a function of analysis 

year.

• The pollutant processes assumed to be covered by I/M from the MOVES default tables 

for New Jersey counties were used.

• The MOVES defaults included representations for both fuel type 1 (gasoline) and fuel 

type 5 (ethanol –anything greater than E10). In case appreciable amounts of E85 are 

assumed to be consumed in NJ in future years, the IM program representations for fuel 

type 1 were copied (added) for fuel type 5 for the 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, and 

2025 representations.

• No adjustments of the compliance factors for portions of vehicle types (such as certain 

vehicle weight ranges) that are exempt from I/M because this is not a significant factor 

for New Jersey. In some cases vehicles over 8500 lbs are subject to an idle test instead 

of the more stringent TSI or OBD test but MOVES does not allow the specification of 

more than one test for a given vehicle type/model year/pollutant process. Therefore, the 

most accurate MOVES input representation is to assume that, for a given model year 

range, the entire vehicle class receives the test that is administered to the majority of the 

vehicles in that class. 

• The new vehicle exemption is 4 years for the 2007 and 2009 representations and 5 

years for the 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, and 2025 representations.

• IM Program ID’s were established as summarized in the following table.

TestStandardID can be found in the MOVES Users Guide

D = IMProgramID used in MOVES default table (not used to avoid confusion)

X = IMProgramID not currently used

endModelYearID for 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020 and 2025 I/M programs 

shown
VII-5

Table 1

IM Program ID’s Used in the New Jersey MOVES Runs

IMProgr

amID

InspectF

req

testStandardsID begModel

YearID endModelYearID

1 D D D D

2 2 11 (idle) 1970 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020

3 2 11 1970 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2025

4 2 22 (5015) 1981 1995

5 D D D D

6 2 41 (gas cap) 1970 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2025

7 D D D D

8 D D D D

9 2 51 (exhOBD) 1996 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020

10 D D D D

11 2 12 (TSI) 1981 1995

12 1 41 1970 1995

13 1 45 (GC/evOBD) 1996 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2025

14 1 22 1981 1995

15 2 41 1970 1995

16 1 51 1996 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2025

17 2 41 1970 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020

18 2 45 1996 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020

19 1 12 1981 1995

20 1 11 1970 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2025

21 2 41 1970 1995

22 2 45 1996 2000

23 2 43 (evOBD) 2001 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020

24 1 41 1970 1995

25 1 45 1996 2000

26 1 43 2001 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2025

27 1 41 1970 2000

2007 and 2009 IM Representations

• Compliance Factor inputs were calculated as follows:

First the overall effectiveness of the NJ I/M program was calculated assuming an 80/20 

CIF/PIF split and that PIFs are 80% as effective as CIFs: 0.8(1.0) + 0.2(0.8) = 0.96.

Then, based on recent data, the waiver rate is either 0.01% for exhaust OBD and ASM 

5015 tests or 0.0% for the other exhaust and all evaporative tests.

Also, based on recent data, the compliance rate is currently about 96%.

Therefore the overall compliance factors are:

0.96 X 0.9999 X 0.96 = 0.9215 for programs with a waiver and

0.96 X 1.0000 X 0.96 = 0.9216 for programs without a waiver.
VII-6

Table 2

2007 and 2009 Exhaust I/M Programs

MOVES use 

type

Description MY Range Test Type Freq New Vehicle 

Exemption?

21. Passenger 

Car

1981 - 1995

1996 – 2003/5

ASM 5015 init

exhOBD

2

2

NA

Yes

31. Passenger 

Truck

Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other 2-

axle / 4-tire trucks used primarily for 

personal transportation

1981 - 1995

1996 – 2003/5

ASM 5015 init

exhOBD

2

2

NA

Yes

32. Light 

Commercial 

Truck

Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other 

trucks 2-axle / 4-tire trucks used 

primarily for commercial

applications. Expected to differ from 

passenger trucks in terms of annual 

mileage, operation by time

of day

1981 - 1995

1996 – 2003/5

ASM 5015 init

exhOBD

2

2

NA

Yes

51. Refuse Truck Garbage and recycling trucks Expected 

to differ from other single unit trucks 

in terms of drive

schedule, roadway type distributions, 

operation by time of day

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

52. Single-Unit 

Short-Haul

Truck

Single-unit trucks with majority of 

operation within 200 miles of home 

base

1970 – 2007/9 idle 2 No

53. Single-Unit 

Long-Haul

Truck

Single-unit trucks with majority of 

operation outside of 200 miles of 

home base

1970 – 2007/9 idle 2 No

54. Motor 

Home

1970 – 2003/5 idle 2 Yes

41. Intercity Bus Buses which are not transit buses or 

school buses, e.g. those used primarily 

by commercial carriers for

city-to-city transport.

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

42. Transit Bus Buses used for public transit. NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

43. School Bus School and church buses. 1981 - 1995

1996 – 2007/9

ASM 5015 init

exhOBD

1

1

NA

No

61. Combination 

Short-Haul

Truck

Combination trucks with majority of 

operation within 200 miles of home 

base

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

62. Combination 

Long-Haul

Truck

Combination trucks with majority of 

operation outside of 200 miles of 

home base

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

11. Motorcycle NA None NA NA
VII-7

Table 3

2007 and 2009 Evaporative I/M Programs

MOVES use 

type

Description MY Range Test Type Freq New Vehicle 

Exemption?

21. Passenger 

Car

1970 - 1995

1996 – 2003/5

Gascap

Gascap/evpOBD

2

2

NA

Yes

31. Passenger 

Truck

Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other 2-

axle / 4-tire trucks used primarily for 

personal transportation

1970 - 1995

1996 – 2003/5

Gascap

Gascap/evpOBD

2

2

NA

Yes

32. Light 

Commercial 

Truck

Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other 

trucks 2-axle / 4-tire trucks used 

primarily for commercial

applications. Expected to differ from 

passenger trucks in terms of annual 

mileage, operation by time

of day

1970 - 1995

1996 – 2003/5

Gascap

Gascap/evpOBD

2

2

NA

Yes

51. Refuse Truck Garbage and recycling trucks Expected 

to differ from other single unit trucks 

in terms of drive

schedule, roadway type distributions, 

operation by time of day

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

52. Single-Unit 

Short-Haul

Truck

Single-unit trucks with majority of 

operation within 200 miles of home 

base

1970 – 2007/9 Gascap 2 No

53. Single-Unit 

Long-Haul

Truck

Single-unit trucks with majority of 

operation outside of 200 miles of 

home base

1970 – 2007/9 Gascap 2 No

54. Motor Home 1970 – 2003/5 Gascap 2 Yes

41. Intercity Bus Buses which are not transit buses or 

school buses, e.g. those used primarily 

by commercial carriers for

city-to-city transport.

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

42. Transit Bus Buses used for public transit. NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

43. School Bus School and church buses. 1970 - 1995

1996 – 2007/9

Gascap

Gascap/evpOBD

1

1

NA

No

61. Combination 

Short-Haul

Truck

Combination trucks with majority of 

operation within 200 miles of home 

base

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

62. Combination 

Long-Haul

Truck

Combination trucks with majority of 

operation outside of 200 miles of 

home base

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

11. Motorcycle NA None NA NA

2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020 and 2025 IM Representations

• Compliance Factor inputs were calculated as follows:

First the overall effectiveness of the NJ I/M program was calculated assuming an 80/20 

CIF/PIF split and that PIFs are 95.9% as effective as CIFs: 0.8(1.0) + 0.2(0.959) = 

0.9918.
VII-8

The waiver rate is now 0%.

The compliance rate is 96%.

Therefore the overall compliance factors are:

0.96 X 1.0 X 0.9918 = 0.9521 for all programs 

Table 4

2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020 and 2025 Exhaust I/M Programs

MOVES use 

type

Description MY Range Test Type Freq New Vehicle 

Exemption?

21. Passenger 

Car

1981 - 1995

1996 - Pres

TSI

exhOBD

2

2

NA

Yes

31. Passenger 

Truck

Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other 2-

axle / 4-tire trucks used primarily for 

personal transportation

1981 - 1995

1996 - Pres

TSI

exhOBD

2

2

NA

Yes

32. Light 

Commercial 

Truck

Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other 

trucks 2-axle / 4-tire trucks used 

primarily for commercial

applications. Expected to differ from 

passenger trucks in terms of annual 

mileage, operation by time

of day

1981 - 1995

1996 - Pres

TSI

exhOBD

1

1

NA

No

51. Refuse Truck Garbage and recycling trucks Expected 

to differ from other single unit trucks 

in terms of drive

schedule, roadway type distributions, 

operation by time of day

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

52. Single-Unit 

Short-Haul

Truck

Single-unit trucks with majority of 

operation within 200 miles of home 

base

1970 - Pres idle 1 No

53. Single-Unit 

Long-Haul

Truck

Single-unit trucks with majority of 

operation outside of 200 miles of 

home base

1970 - Pres idle 1 No

54. Motor Home 1970 - Pres idle 2 Yes

41. Intercity Bus Buses which are not transit buses or 

school buses, e.g. those used primarily 

by commercial carriers for

city-to-city transport.

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

42. Transit Bus Buses used for public transit. NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

43. School Bus School and church buses. 1981 - 1995

1996 - Pres

TSI

exhOBD

1

1

NA

No

61. Combination 

Short-Haul

Truck

Combination trucks with majority of 

operation within 200 miles of home 

base

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

62. Combination 

Long-Haul

Truck

Combination trucks with majority of 

operation outside of 200 miles of 

home base

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

11. Motorcycle NA None NA NA
VII-9

Table 5

2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020 and 2025 Evaporative I/M Programs

MOVES use 

type

Description MY Range Test Type Freq New Vehicle 

Exemption?

21. Passenger 

Car

1970 - 1995

1996 - 2000

2001 - Pres

Gascap

Gascap/evOBD

evOBD

2

2

2

NA

NA

Yes

31. Passenger 

Truck

Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other 2-

axle / 4-tire trucks used primarily for 

personal transportation

1970 - 1995

1996 - 2000

2001 - Pres

Gascap

Gascap/evOBD

evOBD

2

2

2

NA

NA

Yes

32. Light 

Commercial 

Truck

Minivans, pickups, SUVs and other 

trucks 2-axle / 4-tire trucks used 

primarily for commercial

applications. Expected to differ from 

passenger trucks in terms of annual 

mileage, operation by time

of day

1970 - 1995

1996 - 2000

2001 - Pres

Gascap

Gascap/evOBD

evOBD

1

1

1

NA

NA

No

51. Refuse Truck Garbage and recycling trucks Expected 

to differ from other single unit trucks 

in terms of drive

schedule, roadway type distributions, 

operation by time of day

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

52. Single-Unit 

Short-Haul

Truck

Single-unit trucks with majority of 

operation within 200 miles of home 

base

1970 - 2000 Gascap 1 No

53. Single-Unit 

Long-Haul

Truck

Single-unit trucks with majority of 

operation outside of 200 miles of 

home base

1970 - 2000 Gascap 1 No

54. Motor Home 1970 - Pres Gascap 2 Yes

41. Intercity Bus Buses which are not transit buses or 

school buses, e.g. those used primarily 

by commercial carriers for

city-to-city transport.

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

42. Transit Bus Buses used for public transit. NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

43. School Bus School and church buses. 1970 - 1995

1996 - 2000

2001 - Pres

Gascap

Gascap/evOBD

evOBD

1

1

1

NA

NA

No

61. Combination 

Short-Haul

Truck

Combination trucks with majority of 

operation within 200 miles of home 

base

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

62. Combination 

Long-Haul

Truck

Combination trucks with majority of 

operation outside of 200 miles of 

home base

NA None – fleet is 

assumed to be all 

diesel 

NA NA

11. Motorcycle NA None NA NA
VII-10

2.2 Early NLEVs and MYLEVS Tables

The MOVES inputs to represent New Jersey’s participation in the National Low Emitting Vehicle 

(NLEV) and New Jersey Low Emission Vehicle (adoption of the California Low Emission Vehicle 

(LEV) program) programs were developed pursuant to the USEPA instructions at 

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/tools.htm . The USEPA instructions are for using 

California Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) inputs, Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) inputs, and National 

Low Emitting Vehicle (NLEV) inputs in certain northeast states in MOVES. The USEPA provided 

these inputs in the form of two databases and one spreadsheet file. The emission rates in these 

files are for use only in states other than California that adopted California LEV standards, and 

states in the Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) that received early implementation of NLEV 

standards. The New Jersey inputs were developed to represent it’s early participation in the 

NLEV program and the implementation of the California LEV program starting with the 2009 

model year. The two databases are provided electronically in Attachment 2. 

2.3 Age Distribution

The age distribution factors for each MOVES vehicle type have been estimated for the New 

Jersey fleet using a combination of: New Jersey vehicle registration data, MOVES default data,

and converted MOBILE6 data. The age distribution factors for 2007 were primarily based on 

New Jersey vehicle registration data for 2007. For 2008 the data from the various sources were

used to estimate the coefficients of a polynomial that represented a best fit of the data based on 

maximizing the R-squared for the curve fitting process. The values from the polynomial were 

then used for each year for the age distribution fractions. This resulted in a smooth curve of the 

age distribution factors; as expected by the steady real-world retirement of vehicles as they age. 

For year zero the actual age fractions were used, instead of the values from the curve, because 

for the first year represents a partial year of vehicle sales. Age distributions were determined for 

2007 and 2008. The 2008 age distributions were used for all years following 2008 because new 

vehicle data after 2008 was atypical because it was impacted by the significant effects of the 

recession. Use of atypical age distributions for future years would result in poor projections of 

the likely nature of future vehicle age distributions. Further details regarding the establishment 

of the age distribution factors for the New Jersey fleet are provided electronically in Attachment

2. 

2.4 Average Speed Distribution

The average speed distributions are based on outputs from the NJTPA and DVRPC regional 

transportation models.

 

2.5 Fuel Supply and Fuel Formulation

The MOVES inputs for gasoline formulations were consolidated from reformulated gasoline 

(RFG) survey data received by New Jersey from the USEPA (via email from Robert Anderson of 

the USEPA dated 6/21/2011). The RFG data was combined to form three gasoline types: 

summer gasoline representing the months of May, June, July, August, and September; winter 

gasoline representing the months of December, January and February; and shoulder gasoline 

representing the months of March, April, October, and November. Separate gasoline types were 

developed for 12 northern NJ counties (County ID’s: 3, 13, 17, 19, 23, 25, 27, 31, 35, 37, 39 and 

41) and 9 southern NJ counties (County ID’s: 1, 5, 7, 9, 11, 15, 21, 29 and 33). These county 

groups correspond to the ozone nonattainment area boundaries. Gasoline types were 

developed for years 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010. The projected gasoline types for 2011 and 
VII-11

2012 were assumed to be the same as 2010. The MOVES model assumes that the fuel 

parameters for any years beyond 2012 are the same as the inputs for 2012. Gasoline 

parameters were estimated to be the average of all available sampling data for each 

year/period/area. The only data missing from the USEPA RFG data, but required as a MOVES 

input, is the RVP for the non-summer months; data for this parameter were based on the 

MOVES defaults for NJ (note that this is generally not critical because RVP affects only VOCs 

emissions which are an ozone precursor concern during the summer months). The 2012 RVP 

MOVES defaults for the winter and shoulder fuels were used for 2010, 2011 and 2012 fuels.

 

Diesel sulfur levels are based on USEPA survey data for Petroleum Administration for Defense 

District 1 (PADD 1) received from the USEPA on July 14, 2009 which indicated actual average 

sulfur levels of 32 ppm for 2007 and 15 ppm for 2008. A sulfur level of 11 ppm was assumed 

for 2009+ based on USEPA guidance (EPA420-R-04-013, August 2004, Technical Guidance on 

the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation, pg 64). Partial PADD 1 survey data 

for 2009 from the USEPA was less than 11ppm. 

2.6 Meteorology Data 

The meteorology data required by MOVES are hourly values for temperature and relative 

humidity. The meteorology data for the PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor annual inventories was 

average monthly values based on historical averages. The MOVES meteorology file is provided 

electronically in Attachment 2.

2.7 Ramp Fraction

For the NJTPA counties the fraction of travel that occurs on highway ramps is generated by the 

PPSUITE software based on outputs from the NJTPA regional transportation model. For the 

DVRPC counties the MOVES default value of 8% is used.

2.8 Road Type Distribution

For the NJTPA counties the fraction of travel that occurs on each road type is generated by the 

PPSUITE software based on outputs from the NJTPA regional transportation model and VMT 

aggregation by facility type. For the DVRPC counties, a postprocessor tabulates the fraction of 

travel that occurs on each road type based on outputs from the DVRPC regional travel model at 

the county-level.

2.9 Source Type Population

Source type population (VPOP) is used by MOVES to calculate start and evaporative 

emissions. Emissions estimated by MOVES are related to the population of vehicles in an area 

in addition to the VMT for those vehicles and therefore local data must be developed for this 

input.

The MOVES model characterizes vehicles into 13 source types, which are subsets of the 6 

HPMS MOVES vehicle types. The USEPA believes that states should be able to develop 

population data for many of these source type categories from state motor vehicle registration 

data (for motorcycles, passenger cars, passenger trucks and light commercial trucks), transit 

agencies, school districts, bus companies, and refuse haulers (for intercity, transit, school buses 

and refuse trucks, respectively). The population for other source types may be based on the 

application of local VMT to national default travel rates.
VII-12

New Jersey motor vehicle registration was assembled and aggregated by NJDEP. It was 

collected for years 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 and arranged in MOVES input format for 

each individual county. Growth factors were applied to create MOVES VPOP inputs for future 

years. The growth factors were the VMT growth factors from the New Jersey travel demand 

model (TDM) outputs. The TDM VMT growth factors reflect projected local economic growth. 

VPOP growth rates were assumed to follow the same trend as the VMT growth rates. When the 

travel model results were missing for any of the future years the data were interpolated from the 

travel model outputs for the nearest years.

If accurate local vehicle population data are not available for a particular source type, the 

USEPA recommends applying a national default travel rate to local VMT in order to estimate 

VPOP (Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in 

State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, USEPA, April 2010, page 21). 

Local VMT multiplied by the ratio of MOVES default population to MOVES default VMT provides

an estimate of local population.

During several technical meetings with NJDOT, NJDEP, and the MPOs, it was decided to use 

motor vehicle registration data for all vehicle types except for the long and short haul trucks. 

VMT-based data were used for short and long haul trucks (source types 52, 53, 61 and 62). 

New Jersey believes that registration data are the most accurate data currently available for all 

source type populations except for the short and long haul trucks. The VMT based population 

developed pursuant to USEPA guidance was used for these source types since the registration

numbers are not as representative of actual time spent in each county for these types of

vehicles. MOVES runs with national default data were conducted and VMT/Population ratios 

(daily miles) were estimated for each source type. This ratio was applied during the PPSUITE 

network analysis to create VPOP input for each county in the analysis year from the travel 

model generated VMT. For the DVRPC counties the estimation of VPOPs for the short and 

long haul trucks is included in Attachment 2.

In summary, for the New Jersey emissions analyses, MOVES source type population inputs 

were developed using a combination of vehicle registration and VMT-based methods as 

summarized below.

Table 6

Vehicle Population Sources for the MOVES Source Types

MOVES Source Type Population Source

11 Motorcycle Registration

21 Passenger Car Registration

31 Passenger Truck Registration

32 Light Commercial Truck Registration

41 Intercity Bus Registration

42 Transit Bus Registration

43 School Bus Registration

51 Refuse Truck Registration

52 Single Unit Short-Haul Truck VMT-Based

53 Single Unit Long-Haul Truck VMT-Based

54 Motor Home Registration

61 Combination Short-haul Truck VMT-Based

62 Combination Long-haul Truck VMT-Based 
VII-13

2.10 HPMS VType Year

The VMT by vehicle type is based on the HPMS VMT data from the New Jersey Department of 

Transportation. Growth factors for future years are from the NJTPA and DVRPC regional 

transportation models.

2.11 Month VMT Fraction

The VMT monthly fractions are based on the HPMS VMT seasonal factors provided by the New 

Jersey Department of Transportation. 

2.12 Day VMT Fraction

The VMT daily fractions are based on MOVES default values and/or outputs from the TDMs. 

DVRPC VMT daily fractions are based on day-of-the-week and month-of-the-year factors from 

similar counties. DVRPC assumes each month has weekdays and weekends in a 5/2 

proportion. 

2.13 Hour VMT Fraction

The VMT hourly fractions are based on MOVES default values and/or post-processing of 

outputs from the TDMs.

3.0 Summary of On-road Inventory Data

Tables 7 through 12 present the onroad source emission inventories by county and 

nonattainment area. Attachment 1 contains the emission inventories by MOVES vehicle type. 

Table 7

2007 On-road Annual Emission Inventories by County (Northern NAA)

Area VMT Exhaust

PM

ECARBON OCARBON SO4 BRAKE TIRE Total

PM2.5

SO2 NOx

Annual 

(million) 

Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr

Tons

/Yr

Tons

/Yr

Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr 

Tons/Yr

2007 County

Bergen 7,866.2 622.6 326.5 294.2 2.0 68.5 15.2 706 110 16,459

Essex 4,879.1 352.7 202.6 148.9 1.2 27.6 8.7 389 58 9,629

Hudson 2,290.0 208.0 119.9 87.4 0.7 17.1 4.4 229 30 5,357

Mercer 3,565.9 310.9 203.4 106.3 1.2 21.9 6.5 339 50 8,503

Middlesex 7,795.0 545.4 315.4 228.1 1.9 38.6 13.5 597 90 15,111

Monmouth 6,315.6 231.9 98.7 132.4 0.8 29.1 10.5 272 62 8,140

Morris 5,529.8 298.8 161.2 136.5 1.1 25.1 9.3 333 60 9,288

Passaic 2,913.7 184.7 94.1 90.1 0.6 17.4 5.3 207 34 5,310

Somerset 3,230.7 195.9 111.9 83.3 0.8 15.9 5.7 218 36 6,083

Union 4,619.0 350.7 206.5 142.9 1.2 27.0 8.3 386 55 9,505

Totals: 49,004.9 3,301.6 1,840.3 1,450.1 11.2 288.2 87.3 3,677 586 93,385
VII-14

Table 8

2009 On-road Annual Emission Inventories by County (Northern NAA)

Area VMT Exhaust

PM

ECARBON OCARBON SO4 BRAKE TIRE Total

PM2.5

SO2 NOx

annual 

(million) 

Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr

Tons

/Yr

Tons

/Yr

Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr

Tons/Yr

2009 County

Bergen 7,485.3 493.5 253.4 239.2 0.9 64.8 14.4 573 81 12,983

Essex 4,651.5 276.1 156.5 119.1 0.5 25.4 8.2 310 42 7,474

Hudson 2,170.9 155.0 87.2 67.6 0.3 15.8 4.1 175 21 4,021

Mercer 3,414.0 197.3 112.7 84.1 0.4 19.9 6.1 223 33 5,834

Middlesex 7,494.6 417.9 234.4 182.8 0.8 36.9 12.9 468 65 11,589

Monmouth 6,175.4 189.7 78.9 110.4 0.4 28.5 10.2 228 50 6,492

Morris 5,302.4 255.0 136.4 118.2 0.5 25.0 9.0 289 46 7,597

Passaic 2,904.9 159.3 78.8 80.3 0.3 18.2 5.3 183 27 4,405

Somerset 3,198.5 175.4 101.1 73.9 0.4 16.3 5.7 197 27 5,298

Union 4,456.4 279.1 158.7 119.9 0.5 25.4 7.9 312 40 7,413

Totals: 47,253.8 2,598.3 1,398.1 1,195.3 4.8 276.1 83.9 2,958 433 73,106

Table 9

2025 On-road Annual Emission Inventories by County (Northern NAA)

Area VMT Exhaust

PM

ECARBON OCARBON SO4 BRAKE TIRE Total

PM2.5

SO2 NOx

annual 

(million) 

Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr

Tons

/Yr

Tons

/Yr

Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr

Tons/Yr

2025 County

Bergen 8,091.8 149.5 32.8 115.7 1.0 71.9 15.6 237 98 3,624

Essex 5,063.5 78.4 19.1 58.7 0.5 29.3 9.0 117 51 1,967

Hudson 2,446.5 45.0 11.2 33.4 0.3 19.4 4.8 69 27 1,147

Mercer 4,139.3 58.8 12.7 45.7 0.4 23.7 7.4 90 40 1,920

Middlesex 8,465.9 124.6 29.0 94.8 0.9 46.7 15.0 186 83 3,201

Monmouth 6,749.4 83.7 18.4 64.8 0.5 33.3 11.4 128 63 1,905

Morris 5,913.0 80.2 18.2 61.6 0.5 27.9 10.0 118 56 2,033

Passaic 3,263.9 56.5 13.1 43.1 0.3 21.2 5.9 84 35 1,253

Somerset 3,700.5 48.7 11.7 36.6 0.4 20.1 6.7 75 36 1,448

Union 4,792.8 75.3 18.0 56.8 0.5 29.5 8.6 113 48 2,047

Totals: 52,626.6 800.6 184.1 611.1 5.4 322.8 94.3 1,218 539 20,546
VII-15

Table 10

2007 On-road Annual Emission Inventories by County (Southern NAA)

Area VMT Exhaust

PM

ECARBON OCARBON SO4 BRAKE TIRE Total

PM2.5

SO2 NOx

annual 

(million) 

Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr

Tons

/Yr

Tons

/Yr

Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr

Tons/Yr

2007 County

Burlington 4,703.8 378.5 247.3 129.8 1.4 27.9 8.6 415 64 10,615

Camden 4,089.8 355.6 226.8 127.4 1.3 31.3 7.9 395 59 9,834

Gloucester 2,722.4 225.8 149.4 75.6 0.9 14.3 4.8 245 38 6,543

Totals: 11,515.9 959.9 623.6 332.7 3.6 73.5 21.3 1,055 161 26,992

Table 11

2009 On-road Annual Emission Inventories by County (Southern NAA)

Area VMT Exhaust

PM

ECARBON OCARBON SO4 BRAKE TIRE Total

PM2.5

SO2 NOx

annual 

(million) 

Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr

Tons

/Yr

Tons

/Yr

Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr

Tons/Yr

2009 County

Burlington 4,508.8 238.8 133.3 105.1 0.5 26.4 8.1 273 43 7,320

Camden 3,905.4 215.3 120.3 94.6 0.4 24.7 7.1 247 38 6,556

Gloucester 2,658.9 140.0 78.0 61.7 0.3 14.4 4.7 159 25 4,378

Totals: 11,073.1 594.1 331.5 261.3 1.2 65.6 19.9 680 107 18,253

Table 12

2025 On-road Annual Emission Inventories by County (Southern NAA)

Area VMT Exhaust

PM

ECARBON OCARBON SO4 BRAKE TIRE Total

PM2.5

SO2 NOx

annual 

(million) 

Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr

Tons

/Yr

Tons

/Yr

Tons/Yr Tons

/Yr

Tons/Yr

2025 County

Burlington 5,559.2 71.7 15.3 55.9 0.6 32.9 10.1 115 54 2,505

Camden 4,363.2 58.5 12.7 45.4 0.5 27.3 7.9 94 43 2,028

Gloucester 3,409.3 44.9 9.7 34.9 0.3 18.8 6.0 70 33 1,563

Totals: 13,331.7 175.2 37.6 136.2 1.4 79.0 24.0 278 130 6,095

4.0 Control Measure Emission Benefits

Emission benefits accrue from numerous existing control measures including: Federal Control 

measures in the MOVES model, New Jersey gasoline vehicle I/M program and the New Jersey 

Low Emission Vehicle program that began with the 2009 model year. A complete summary of 

the control measures included in the emission inventories is summarized in Section 5.4 of this 

SIP. 
VII-16

Emission benefits by nonattainment area were estimated by calculating the difference between 

the base year emissions (2007) and the last year of the maintenance period emissions (2025). 

Emisson benefits are summarized in the following tables:

Table 13

On-road Annual Emission Benefits by County (Northern NAA)

Area Total

PM2.5

SO2 NOx

2007/2025 

Difference

Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr

County

Bergen 469 12 12,835

Essex 272 7 7,662

Hudson 160 3 4,210

Mercer 249 10 6,583

Middlesex 411 7 11,910

Monmouth 143 -1 6,235

Morris 215 4 7,254

Passaic 124 -1 4,057

Somerset 142 0 4,635

Union 273 7 7,457

Totals: 2,459 47 72,840

Table 14

On-road Annual Emission Benefits by County (Southern NAA)

5.0. Quality Assurance

The primary quality assurance activities for the on-road emission estimates were the 

performance of parallel MOVES runs by NJDEP staff on NJDEP computers and the MPO 

representatives on their computers. This so-called “benchmarking” activity is performed 

whenever transportation conformity budgets are being developed. It is necessary that the 

MPOs are able to exactly reproduce the MOVES inputs, MOVES methodologies, and MOVES 

outputs because the on-road emission inventories are being used to establish budgets that will 

need to stay under when performing their subsequent transportation conformity determinations.

Area Total

PM2.5

SO2 NOx

2007/2025 

Difference

Tons/Yr Tons/Yr Tons/Yr

County

Burlington 300 10 8,110

Camden 301 16 7,806

Gloucester 175 5 4,981

Totals: 776 31 20,896