Technical Support Document (TSD) for the RedesignationRequest and Maintenance Plan Forthe Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle-York, PA 2006 PM2

.sNonattainmentArea

Submitted April 2014 by the PennsylvaniaDepartment ofEnvironmental Protection
TSD Prepared August 2014 by Jessica L. Fry Office ofAirMonitoring and Analysis, 3AP40 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 3 1650 Arch Street Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103

Reviewed by Alice H. Chow, Associate Director Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis (3AP40)

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### I. Introduction
The purpose ofthis document is to provide a technical summary ofthe Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis (OAMA) review ofthe emissions inventories submitted with the Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan for the Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle-York, PA 2006 PM2.s Nonattainment Area (NAA) by the Pennsylvania Department ofEnvironmental Protection (PADEP). The NAA consists ofCumberland, Dauphin, Lebanon, and York counties in Pennsylvania. This review does not determine the approvability ofthe redesignation request or maintenance plan. Emissions inventories in a redesignation request are used to showpermanent and enforceable emissionreductions between the year the area was designated as a nonattainment area and the yearthe area came into attainment. In a maintenance plan, the emissions inventories are used to reflectthe emissions during the time the area came into attainment and are then projected to showthat the area will remain in attainment. Any questions pertaining to this technical summary should be directed to Alice H. Chow, Associate Director, Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis, at 215-814-2144 or via email at chow.alice@epa.gov

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### II. Emissions Inventories for Redesignation Request
2005Nonattainment YearInventory
In a redesignation request, emissions inventories are used to supportthe State's claim that the areahas permanent and enforceable emissions reductions. In order to do this, the state should estimate the percentreduction (fromthe year that was used to determine the design value for designation and classification) achieved from federal and state control measures; this is usually termed as the nonattainment orbaseline year inventory. Forthe purpose ofthis planthe year 2005 was used the nonattainment year inventory. The 2005 nonattainment year inventory contains primary PM2.s emissions (including condensibles), S02,NOx, VOC, andNH3 emissions. This section will discuss the 2005 nonattainmentyear inventory that was used inthe HarrisburgLebanon-Carlisle-York, PA Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan submittedby PADEP.
PADEP used emissions from EPA's 2005 NEI for their point, nonpoint, nomoad, and omoadnonattainment year inventory.
OAMA staffreviewed the files and the emission results provided by PADEP and found them to be acceptable.


### III. Emissions Inventories for Maintenance Plan
2007Attainment YearInventory andMaintenancePlan Base YearInventory
Under section 172(c)(3) states are required to submit a comprehensive, accurate, current accounting ofactual emissions from all sources (point, nonpoint, nomoad, and onroad) in the nonattainment area. This inventory contains primary PM2.s emissions (including condensibles), S02, NOx, VOC, and NH3. In a Maintenance Plan, states are required to submit an inventory used for the year ofattainment, which is called the attainment year inventory and can also be referredto as the maintenance planbase year inventory. This inventory is used as the basis for the projected inventories that are used to showthe area will remain in attainment. The base year inventory submitted by PADEP contains primary PM2.s emissions (including condensibles), S02, NOx, VOC, and NH3 emissions. This section will discuss the 2007 emissions inventory that was used in the Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle-York Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan in orderto fulfill the 172(c)(3) and attainment year emissions inventory requirements.
Forthe 2007 base year inventory for the point, nonpoint, and nonroad categories, PADEP submitted the 2007 Version 3 Emissions Inventory developed through the Mid-Atlantic Regional Air ManagementAssociation (MARAMA) regional planning process. Documentation ofthe development ofthe inventory canbe found in Technical SupportDocument for the Development of the 2007Emission Inventoryfor the RegionalAir QualityModeling in the NortheastIMidAtlantic Region Version 3.3. January 23, 2012.
The 2007 point source inventory contained emissions for EGU and Non-EGU sources in the NAA. EPA guidance for emissions inventory development provides that actual emissions should be used for purposes ofthebase year inventory. PADEP developed their 2007 inventory by using emissions directly reported by the facilities. The EGU inventory was augmented and missing condensable PM emissions were supplemented using emission factors developed for MARAMA in 2008.
The nonpoint source emissions inventory for 2007 was developed using 2007 specific activity data along with EPA emission factors and the most recently available emission calculation methodologies. PADEP used 2008 NEI datato fill in any missing categories in the 2007 inventory.
For 2007 nonroad mobile sources, PADEP generated the emissions using EPA's NMIM2008 model. Since marine, air and rail/locomotive (MAR) emissions are not part ofthe NONROAD model, they were calculated separately outside ofthe NONROAD model. Aircraft emissions were developed using EPA's database to the support the 2008 NEI. PADEP used railroad emissions developed by the Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC).
The 2007 onroad mobile source inventory was developed using EPA's highway mobile source emissions model MOVES2010. PADEP used local activity to replace default inputs in the model where appropriate.
OAMA staffreviewed the files and the emission results provided by PADEP and found them to be acceptable.
2017and2025Projection Emission Inventories Projection inventories are used to showthatthe area will remain in attainment. PADEP used 2017 and 2025 emissionprojections developed through the MARAMA regional planning process for the interim and maintenance plan end year, respectively. Emissionprojections, emission methodologies and growth factors for 2017 and 2025 canbe found in the Technical SupportDocument for the Development of the 2013/201712020 Emission InventoriesforRegionalAir QualityModeling in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Region (MARAMA 2017 TSD) and the Technical SupportDocument for the Developmentof the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM2.5 Nonattainment Counties in the MANE-VURegion, January 2012 (MARAMA 2025 TSD), respectively.
For EGU emissions, PADEP used growth factors based onthe Annual Energy Outlook (AE02011) and applied them to the 2007 inventory. Non-EGU emissions projections were based onVersion 3.3 ofthe 2007 MANE-VU+VA inventory. MARAMA growth factors were developed using AEO fuel consumption forecasts, state-level employment projections, and other state-specific emission projection data. Nonpoint source emissions for 2017 and 2025 were developed similarly to the non-EGU point sources. Emissionprojections were based onVersion 3.3 ofthe 2007 MANE-VU+VA inventory. MARAMA growth factors were developed using AEO fuel consumption forecasts, state-level employment projections, and other state-specific emissionprojection data.
Nonroad source emissions for 2017 and 2025 were developed using NMIM model runs which contain default assumptions for projectea years. Aircraft emissions were projected by applying activity growth datareported in the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Terminal AreaForecast (TAF) system for 2009-2030 (FAA2010). Railroad emissions were based on the MARAMA MANE-VU+Va inventory.
The 2017 and 2025 onroad mobile source inventory was developed using EPA's highway mobile source emissions model MOVES2010. PADEP used local activity to replace default inputs in the model where appropriate
OAMA staffreviewed the methodologies provided by PADEP and found them to be acceptable.