DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT MARKET POTENTIAL STUDY

Volume 3: Energy Efficiency Analysis

Final Report

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting

500 Ygnacio Valley Road

Suite 450

Walnut Creek, CA 94596

925.482.2000

www.enernoc.com

Prepared for:

Ameren Missouri

Presented on:

December 20, 2013

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting iii

This report was prepared by

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting

500 Ygnacio Valley Blvd., Suite 450

Walnut Creek, CA 94596

I. Rohmund, Project Director

B. Kester, Project Manager

D. Costenaro

F. Nguyen

S. Yoshida

D. Ghosh

C. Arzbaecher

C. Carrera

S. Kananizadeh

K. Walter

Subcontractors

The Brattle Group

Ahmad Faruqui

Ryan Hledik

YouGov|Definitive Insights

D. Lineweber

Washington University in St. Louis

Ray Ehrhard

John Murphy

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting v

CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1-1

Report Organization .......................................................................................................1-2

Background ...................................................................................................................1-2

Ameren Missouri DSM Overview..........................................................................1-3

Definitions of Potential ...................................................................................................1-4

Abbreviations and Acronyms...........................................................................................1-5

2 ANALYSIS APPROACH AND DATA DEVELOPMENT................................................ 2-1

Analysis Approach..........................................................................................................2-1

LoadMAP Model .................................................................................................2-2

Market Characterization......................................................................................2-3

Market Profiles...................................................................................................2-7

Baseline Projection.............................................................................................2-8

Energy Efficiency Measure Analysis .....................................................................2-8

Energy-Efficiency Potential ...............................................................................2-12

Program Potential ............................................................................................2-13

Data Development .......................................................................................................2-13

Data Sources ...................................................................................................2-13

Application of Data to the Analysis ....................................................................2-15

3 MARKET CHARACTERIZATION AND MARKET PROFILES ...................................... 3-1

Energy Use Summary.....................................................................................................3-1

Residential Sector ..........................................................................................................3-2

Commercial Sector.........................................................................................................3-4

Industrial Sector ............................................................................................................3-9

4 BASELINE PROJECTION........................................................................................ 4-1

Residential Sector ..........................................................................................................4-1

Commercial Sector.........................................................................................................4-4

Industrial Sector ............................................................................................................4-6

Baseline Projection Summary..........................................................................................4-7

5 MEASURE-LEVEL ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL............................................. 5-1

Summary.......................................................................................................................5-1

Overview of Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential by Sector......................................5-3

Residential Measure-level Potential .................................................................................5-4

Residential Measure-level Potential by Market Segment........................................5-4

Residential Top 20 Measures ..............................................................................5-5

Residential Measure-level Potential by End Use....................................................5-7

Commercial Measure-level Potential ................................................................................5-8

Commercial Measure-level Potential by Market Segment.......................................5-9

Commercial Top 20 Measures ...........................................................................5-10
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Commercial Measure-level Potential by End Use.................................................5-12

Industrial Measure-level Potential..................................................................................5-13

Industrial Top 10 Measures ..............................................................................5-13

Industrial Potential by End Use .........................................................................5-15

6 PROGRAM POTENTIAL.......................................................................................... 6-1

Programmatic Framework and Program Descriptions........................................................6-1

Residential Programs..........................................................................................6-2

Business Programs .............................................................................................6-4

Program Potential Results...............................................................................................6-6

Summary of Program Potential ...........................................................................6-6

Year-by-year Program Potential ..........................................................................6-7

Cost-effectiveness........................................................................................................6-11

Supply Curves..............................................................................................................6-12

Y-axis: Unit Cost ..............................................................................................6-12

X-axis: Energy Savings Impacts ........................................................................6-12

Program Supply Curves ....................................................................................6-13

7 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ....................................................................................... 7-1

Avoided Cost .................................................................................................................7-1

Economic Growth...........................................................................................................7-3

Net-to-gross Assumptions...............................................................................................7-4

A MARKET PROFILES ............................................................................................... A-1

B RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY EQUIPMENT AND MEASURE DATA.............. B-1

C COMMERCIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY EQUIPMENT AND MEASURE DATA.............. C-1

D INDUSTRIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY EQUIPMENT AND MEASURE DATA ...............D-1

E MARKET ADOPTION FACTORS.............................................................................. E-1
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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1-1 Ameren Missouri Service Territory..........................................................................1-3

Figure 2-1 Overview of Analysis Approach ..............................................................................2-2

Figure 2-2 LoadMAP Analysis Framework................................................................................2-3

Figure 2-3 Approach for Measure Assessment.........................................................................2-9

Figure 3-1 Sector-Level Electricity Use, 2011 ..........................................................................3-1

Figure 3-2 Residential Electricity by End Use (2011), All Homes ...............................................3-2

Figure 3-3 Residential Electricity Intensity by End Use and Segment (kWh/household, 2011) ....3-4

Figure 3-4 Commercial Market Segmentation by Building Type – Percentage of Electricity Use ..3-5

Figure 3-5 Commercial Electricity Consumption by End Use (2011), All Building Types ..............3-7

Figure 3-6 Commercial Electricity Intensity by End Use and Segment (kWh/SqFt, 2011)............3-7

Figure 3-7 Commercial Electricity Usage by End Use Segment (GWh, 2011) .............................3-8

Figure 3-8 Industrial Electricity Use by End Use (2011), All Industries ....................................3-10

Figure 4-1 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use .............................................................4-2

Figure 4-2 Residential Use per Household by End Use .............................................................4-2

Figure 4-3 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use............................................................4-4

Figure 4-4 Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use ...............................................................4-6

Figure 4-5 Baseline Projection Summary (GWh)......................................................................4-7

Figure 5-1 Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential ..............................................................5-2

Figure 5-2 Summary of the Baseline Projection and Measure-level EE Forecasts (GWh).............5-2

Figure 5-3 Measure-level Achievable Potential by Sector (GWh)...............................................5-3

Figure 5-4 Residential Measure-level Energy Efficiency Savings................................................5-4

Figure 5-5 Residential Measure-level RAP by End Use in 2018 and 2025...................................5-6

Figure 5-6 Commercial Measure-level Energy Efficiency Savings ..............................................5-8

Figure 5-7 Commercial Measure-level RAP Savings by End Use in 2018 and 2025 ...................5-11

Figure 5-8 Industrial Measure-level Potential Savings ............................................................5-13

Figure 5-9 Industrial Measure-level RAP Savings by End Use in 2018 and 2025 ......................5-14

Figure 6-1 Summary of Program and Measure-level RAP and MAP (% of baseline)....................6-6

Figure 6-2 RAP Program Potential - Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh) ............................6-7

Figure 6-3 MAP Program Potential- Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh).............................6-7

Figure 6-4 RAP Program Potential - Annual Utility Budgets ......................................................6-8

Figure 6-5 MAP Program Potential - Annual Utility Budgets ......................................................6-8

Figure 6-6 Levelized Cost Supply Curves, 2016–2018, RAP and MAP Portfolios........................6-13

Figure 6-7 Levelized Cost Supply Curves, 2016–2033 RAP and MAP Portfolios.........................6-14

Figure 7-1 Comparison of Avoided Costs ................................................................................7-1

Figure 7-2 Comparison of Sensitivity Cases (% change in RAP Potential savings, 2030).............7-3

Figure 7-3 RAP Program Administrator Costs – Comparison of Sensitivity Cases........................7-6

Figure 7-4 MAP Program Administrator Costs – Comparison of Sensitivity Cases .......................7-6

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting ix

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1-1 Explanation of Abbreviations and Acronyms............................................................1-6

Table 2-1 Overview of Segmentation Scheme for EE Potentials Modeling ................................2-4

Table 2-2 Residential Electric End Uses and Technologies ......................................................2-5

Table 2-3 Commercial Electric End Uses and Technologies .....................................................2-6

Table 2-4 Industrial Electric End Uses and Technologies.........................................................2-7

Table 2-5 Example Equipment Measures for Central Air Conditioning – Single Family Home ...2-10

Table 2-6 Example Non-Equipment Measures – Single Family Home, Existing........................2-11

Table 2-7 Economic Screen Results for Selected Residential Equipment Measures..................2-12

Table 2-8 Number of Measures Evaluated ...........................................................................2-12

Table 2-9 Data Applied for the Market Profiles .....................................................................2-16

Table 2-10 Data Needs for the Baseline projection and Potentials Estimation in LoadMAP ........2-16

Table 2-11 Residential Electric Equipment Standards .............................................................2-17

Table 2-12 Commercial Electric Equipment Standards ............................................................2-18

Table 2-13 Data Needs for the Measure Characteristics in LoadMAP .......................................2-19

Table 3-1 Residential Sector Energy Usage and Intensity by Segment Type, 2011 ...................3-2

Table 3-2 Average Electric Market Profile for the Residential Sector, 2011 ...............................3-3

Table 3-3 Residential Electricity Use by End Use and Segment (kWh/HH/year, 2011)...............3-4

Table 3-4 Commercial Electricity Use by End Use and Segment (2011) ...................................3-5

Table 3-5 Average Electric Market Profile for the Commercial Sector, 2011..............................3-6

Table 3-6 Commercial Electricity Consumption by End Use (GWh, 2011) .................................3-8

Table 3-7 Average Electric Market Profile for the Industrial Sector, 2011 .................................3-9

Table 4-1 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh) ..................................................4-1

Table 4-2 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use and Technology (GWh)..........................4-3

Table 4-3 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh).................................................4-4

Table 4-4 Commercial Baseline Forecast by End Use and Technology (GWh)...........................4-5

Table 4-5 Industrial Consumption by End Use (GWh).............................................................4-6

Table 4-6 Baseline Projection Summary (GWh)......................................................................4-7

Table 5-1 Summary of Measure-Level Efficiency Potential.......................................................5-1

Table 5-2 Measure-level Achievable Potential by Sector (GWh)...............................................5-3

Table 5-3 Measure-level EE Potential for the Residential Sector ..............................................5-4

Table 5-4 Residential Measure-level Potential by Market Segment, 2018 .................................5-5

Table 5-5 Residential Top Measures in RAP in 2018 ...............................................................5-5

Table 5-6 Residential Measure-level Savings by End Use and Potential Type (GWh).................5-7

Table 5-7 Measure-level EE Potential for the Commercial Sector.............................................5-8

Table 5-8 Commercial Measure-level Potential by Market Segment, 2018 ................................5-9

Table 5-9 Commercial Top 20 Measures in RAP in 2018 .......................................................5-10

Table 5-10 Commercial Measure-level Potential by End Use and Potential Type (GWh)............5-12

Table 5-11 Measure-level EE Potential for the Industrial Sector ..............................................5-13

Table 5-12 Industrial Top 10 Measures in RAP in 2018...........................................................5-14
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Table 5-13 Industrial Measure-level Potential by End Use and Potential Type (GWh) ...............5-15

Table 6-1 Portfolio of Energy Efficiency Programs Included in Program Potential .....................6-1

Table 6-2 Summary of Program Potential ..............................................................................6-6

Table 6-3 RAP Program Potential Portfolio Summary ..............................................................6-9

Table 6-4 MAP Program Potential Portfolio Summary ...........................................................6-10

Table 6-5 RAP Portfolio Cost-Effectiveness Summary ...........................................................6-11

Table 6-6 MAP Portfolio Cost-Effectiveness Summary...........................................................6-12

Table 6-7 Example of Measure Data Preparation for Supply Curve ........................................6-13

Table 6-8 Levelized Cost by Program - RAP and MAP ...........................................................6-14

Table 6-9 First-year Cost per kWh by Program — RAP and MAP............................................6-15

Table 7-1 Number of Measures Passing the Economic Screen - Comparison ............................7-2

Table 7-2 EE Potential - Comparison of Avoided Cost Sensitivity Cases (GWh).........................7-2

Table 7-3 Comparison of Baseline Projection, MAP and RAP for Economic-Growth Sensitivity ...7-3

Table 7-4 RAP Program Administrator Cost............................................................................7-5

Table 7-5 MAP Program Administrator Cost ...........................................................................7-5

Table 7-6 RAP Cost-Effectiveness Across Sensitivity Cases......................................................7-5

Table 7-7 MAP Cost-Effectiveness Across Sensitivity Cases .....................................................7-5

Table B-1 Residential Energy Efficiency Equipment Measure Descriptions ................................B-2

Table B-2 Residential Energy Efficiency Non-Equipment Measure Descriptions .........................B-7

Table C-1 Commercial Energy Efficiency Equipment Measure Descriptions .............................. C-2

Table C-2 Commercial Energy Efficiency Non-Equipment Measure Descriptions....................... C-5

Table D-1 Industrial Energy Efficiency Equipment Measure Descriptions ................................. D-2

Table D-2 Industrial Energy Efficiency Non-Equipment Measure Descriptions .......................... D-4
EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 1-1

INTRODUCTION 

Ameren Missouri commissioned this Demand Side Management (DSM) Market Potential Study to 

assess the various categories of electrical energy efficiency (EE), demand response (DR), and 

distributed generation/combined heat and power (DG/CHP) potentials in the residential, 

commercial, and industrial sectors for the Ameren Missouri service area from 2016 to 2033. This 

study uses updated baseline estimates based on the latest information pertaining to federal, 

state, and local codes and standards for improving energy efficiency. It also quantifies and 

includes estimates of naturally occurring energy efficiency in the baseline projection.

Ameren Missouri will use the results of this study in its integrated resource planning process to 

analyze various levels of energy efficiency related savings and peak demand reductions 

attributable to both EE and DR initiatives at various levels of cost. This study also provides 

estimated levels of combined heat and power (CHP) and distributed generation (DG) installations 

over the specified time horizon. Furthermore, Ameren Missouri has adhered to both the Missouri 

Public Service Commission (“Commission”) rules, 4 CSR 240-3.164 regarding potential study 

requirements for purposes of complying with the Missouri Energy Efficiency Investment Act 

(MEEIA) and 4 CSR 240-22 regarding potential study requirements for Ameren Missouri’s next 

Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to be filed in April 2014. Both rules contain new provisions that 

were not part of Ameren Missouri’s previous DSM Potential Study published in 2010. 

Ameren contracted with EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting (EnerNOC) to conduct this study 

and EnerNOC has performed the following tasks to meet Ameren’s key objectives:

• Conducted primary market research to collect data for the Ameren Missouri service territory, 

including: electric end-use data, saturation data, and customer demographics and 

psychographics.

• Characterized how customers in the Ameren Missouri service territory make decisions related 

to their electric use and energy efficiency investment decisions. Translated that 

understanding in a clear and transparent manner to establish annual market acceptance 

rates for EE measures.

• Employed updated baselines that reflect both current and anticipated federal, state, and local 

energy efficiency legislation. Identify all known pending legislation that may also impact DSM 

potential. 

• Developed Ameren Missouri-specific market acceptance rates for EE for the planning cycle of 

2016 through 2034 that, when applied to economic potential, will yield estimates of 

maximum achievable and realistic achievable potential. 

• Analyzed the potential for energy efficiency, demand response, and customer distributed 

generation/combined heat and power application over the 2016-2033 planning horizon1

.

• Worked with Ameren Missouri to develop sensitivity analyses for assessing uncertainty 

around DSM potential. 

• Analyzed the impact of demand-side rates on DSM potential.

• Provided a series of webinars for Missouri stakeholders to review study assumptions and 

provide comments for consideration.

 

1 Although estimates were developed through 2034, we show results for 2033, which is 20 years out from the start of the forecast in 

2014.

CHAPTER 1
Introduction

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• Clearly communicated the DSM potential and uncertainty in an objective way that is useful 

for the Commission, Ameren senior management, Missouri stakeholders, Ameren DSM staff, 

Ameren EE Implementation team, and Ameren IRP staff – both operational and planning. 

This includes the following: 

o Documented compliance with IRP/MEEIA rule references, including specific references to 

rule requirements.

o Provided measure-level information, in a way that is readily compatible with Ameren 

Missouri’s modeling methodology in DSMore.

o Generated energy efficiency potential supply curves, which clearly show the incremental 

cost (in dollars per kWh) of increasing DSM energy efficiency efforts (in kWh) over the 

2016-2033 planning horizon. 

o Generated demand response potential supply curves, which clearly show the incremental 

cost (in dollars per kW) of increasing DSM demand response efforts (in kW) over the 

2016-2033 planning horizon. 

o Generated distributed generation/combined heat and power potential supply curves, 

which clearly show the incremental cost (in dollars per kW) of increasing DG/CHP efforts 

(in kW) over the 2016-2033 planning horizon.

Report Organization

This report is presented in 5 volumes as outlined below. This document is Volume 3: Energy 

Efficiency Analysis.

• Volume 1, Executive Summary

• Volume 2, Market Research

• Volume 3, Energy Efficiency Analysis 

• Volume 4, Demand Response Analysis

• Volume 5, Distributed Generation Analysis 

• Volume 6, Demand-side Rates Analysis

Background

Ameren Corporation is a large investor-owned utility serving large parts of Missouri and Illinois. 

Figure 1-1 below presents Ameren Missouri’s service territory. 
Introduction

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 1-3

Figure 1-1 Ameren Missouri Service Territory 

Ameren Missouri DSM Overview

The Missouri Rules of the Department of Economic Development (4 CSR 240-22) require that 

electric utilities in Missouri prepare an integrated resource plan (IRP) that “[c]onsider[s] and 

analyze[s] demand-side efficiency and energy management measures on an equivalent basis 

with supply-side alternatives in the resource planning process.” per Section 4 CSR 240-

22.010(2)(A). Section 4 CSR 240-22.050 prescribes the elements of the demand-side analysis, 

including reporting requirements. A copy of the Missouri rules governing electric utility resource 

planning is available on the Missouri Secretary of State’s website. Details of the Missouri Energy 

Efficiency Investment Act (MEEIA) are available on the Missouri Public Service Commission 

website. 

Over the past several years, Ameren Missouri has been implementing EE programs and analyzing 

EE as a long-term resource option. From 2009 through September, 2011, Ameren Missouri 

implemented full-scale EE programs including five residential and four business programs.

Ameren Missouri spent approximately $70 million on energy efficiency programs between 2009 

and 2011 and achieved approximately 550,000 MWH of verified energy savings. This level of 

expenditure resulted in deployment of approximately:

• 4 million CFLs

• 21,000 Energy Star® appliances
Introduction

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• 12,000 Multi-Family Income Qualified (“MFIQ”) tenant units

• 9,000 decommissioned refrigerators and freezers

• 3,000 new residential central air conditioning systems

• 3,000 business projects

In 2012, Ameren Missouri scaled back its energy efficiency expenditures to $10 million due to 

uncertainty regarding regulatory framework issues for its next cycle of energy efficiency 

programs. Concurrently, in January 2012, Ameren Missouri filed its first 3-year EE 

implementation plan under the new Missouri rules implementing MEEIA. 

Definitions of Potential

In this study, we estimate the potential for energy efficiency savings. The savings estimates 

represent net savings2 developed into three types of potential: technical potential, economic 

potential, and achievable potential. Technical and economic potential are both theoretical limits 

to efficiency savings. Achievable potential embodies a set of assumptions about the decisions 

consumers make regarding the efficiency of the equipment they purchase, the maintenance 

activities they undertake, the controls they use for energy-consuming equipment, and the 

elements of building construction. Because estimating achievable potential involves the inherent 

uncertainty of predicting human behaviors and responses to market conditions, we developed 

realistic and maximum achievable potential as boundaries for a likely range. The various levels 

are described below.

• Technical Potential is defined as the theoretical upper limit of energy efficiency potential. 

It assumes that customers adopt all feasible measures regardless of their cost. At the time of 

existing equipment failure, customers replace their equipment with the most efficient option 

available. In new construction, customers and developers also choose the most efficient 

equipment option. Examples of measures that make up technical potential for electricity in 

the residential sector include ductless mini-split air conditioners with variable refrigerant flow 

and ground source (or geothermal) heat pumps. 

Technical potential also assumes the adoption of every other available measure, where 

applicable. For example, it includes installation of high-efficiency windows in all new 

construction opportunities and air conditioner maintenance in all existing buildings with 

central and room air conditioning. These retrofit measures are phased in over a number of 

years, which is longer for higher-cost and complex measures. 

• Economic Potential represents the adoption of all cost-effective energy efficiency 

measures. In this analysis, the cost-effectiveness is measured by the total resource cost 

(TRC) test, which compares lifetime energy and capacity benefits to the incremental cost of 

the measure. If the benefits outweigh the costs (that is, if the TRC ratio is greater than 1.0), 

a given measure is considered in the economic potential. Customers are then assumed to 

purchase the most cost-effective option applicable to them at any decision juncture.

• Maximum Achievable Potential (MAP) estimates customer adoption of economic 

measures when delivered through efficiency programs under ideal market, implementation, 

and customer preference conditions and an appropriate regulatory framework. Information 

channels are assumed to be established and efficient for marketing, educating consumers, 

and coordinating with trade allies and delivery partners. Maximum Achievable Potential 

establishes a maximum target for the EE savings that an administrator can hope to achieve 

through its EE programs and involves incentives that represent a substantial portion of the 

incremental cost combined with high administrative and marketing costs. 

 

2 Savings in “net” terms instead of “gross” terms mean that the baseline projection does include naturally occurring efficiency. In other 

words, the baseline assumes that energy efficiency levels reflect that some customers are already purchasing the more efficient option. 

In the baseline projection chapter we explore other types of baselines, including a codes and standards case and a business-as-usual 

case.
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EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 1-5

• Realistic Achievable Potential (RAP) reflects expected program participation given 

barriers to customer acceptance, non-ideal implementation conditions, and limited program 

budgets. This represents a lower bound on achievable potential.

Abbreviations and Acronyms

Throughout the report we use several abbreviations and acronyms. Table 1-1 shows the 

abbreviation or acronym, along with an explanation.
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Table 1-1 Explanation of Abbreviations and Acronyms 

Acronym Explanation

ACS American Community Survey

AEO Annual Energy Outlook forecast developed by EIA

AHAM Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers 

B/C Ratio Benefit to cost ratio

BEST EnerNOC’s Building Energy Simulation Tool

CAC Central air conditioning

C&I Commercial and industrial

CFL Compact fluorescent lamp

DEEM EnerNOC’s Database of Energy Efficiency Measures

DEER State of California Database for Energy-Efficient Resources

DSM Demand side management

DR Demand response

EE Energy efficiency

EIA Energy Information Administration

EISA Energy Efficiency and Security Act of 2007

EPACT Energy Policy Act of 2005

EPRI Electric Power Research Institute

EUI Energy-use index

HH Household

HID High intensity discharge lamps

LED Light emitting diode lamp

LoadMAP EnerNOC’s Load Management Analysis and PlanningTM tool

MAP Maximum achievable potential

NWPCC Northwest Power and Conservation Council

RAP Realistic achievable potential

RTU Roof top unit

Sq. ft. Square feet

TRC Total resource cost

TRM Technical Reference Manual

UEC Unit energy consumption
EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2-1

ANALYSIS APPROACH AND DATA DEVELOPMENT

This section describes the analysis approach taken for the study and the data sources used to 

develop the potential estimates.

Analysis Approach

To perform the energy efficiency analysis, EnerNOC used a bottom-up analysis approach as 

shown in Figure 2-1. This involved the following steps.

1. Held a meeting with Ameren staff and stakeholders to refine the objectives of the project in 

detail. This resulted in a work plan for the study.

2. Conducted primary market research to identify equipment saturations, building 

characteristics, measure applicability and saturations, occupant behavior, and customer 

interest in programs. 3

3. Performed a market characterization to describe sector-level electricity use for the 

residential, commercial, and industrial sectors for the base year, 2011. This included using 

the results from the customer surveys and other secondary data sources such as the Energy 

Information Administration (EIA).

4. Developed a baseline projection by sector, segment, and end use for 2012 through 2033. 

Results presented in this volume focus on the three-year implementation cycle of 2016-2018

as well as the longer term horizon through 2033. 

5. Identified several hundred measures and estimated their effects in four levels of energyefficiency potential: Technical, Economic, Maximum Achievable, and Realistic Achievable.

Measure costs and savings were taken from the Missouri TRM where available. 

6. Reviewed the current programs offered by Ameren in light of the study findings to make 

strategic program recommendations for achieving savings. 

7. Created detailed program plans representing the program potential for Ameren, basing them 

on the potential analysis and strategic recommendations developed in the previous steps.

8. Used program design analysis to develop supply curves.

These steps are described in further detail throughout the remainder of this chapter.

 

3 Details on the market research methodology and results are available in Volume 2, Market Research.

CHAPTER 2
Analysis Approach and Data Development

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Figure 2-1 Overview of Analysis Approach 

LoadMAP Model

We used EnerNOC’s Load Management Analysis and Planning tool (LoadMAPTM) version 3.0 to 

develop both the baseline projection and the estimates of energy efficiency potential. EnerNOC

developed LoadMAP in 2007 and has enhanced it over time, using it for the EPRI National 

Potential Study and numerous utility-specific forecasting and potential studies. Built in Excel, the 

LoadMAP framework (see Figure 2-2) is both accessible and transparent and has the following 

key features.

• Embodies the basic principles of rigorous end-use models (such as EPRI’s REEPS and 

COMMEND) but in a more simplified, accessible form. 

• Includes stock-accounting algorithms that treat older, less efficient appliance/equipment 

stock separately from newer, more efficient equipment. Equipment is replaced according to 

the measure life and appliance vintage distributions defined by the user.

• Balances the competing needs of simplicity and robustness by incorporating important 

modeling details related to equipment saturations, efficiencies, vintage, and the like, where 

market data are available, and treats end uses separately to account for varying importance 

and availability of data resources. 

• Isolates new construction from existing equipment and buildings and treats purchase 

decisions for new construction and existing buildings separately. 

• Uses a simple logic for appliance and equipment decisions. Other models available for this 

purpose embody complex decision choice algorithms or diffusion assumptions, and the model 
Analysis Approach and Data Development

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2-3

parameters tend to be difficult to estimate or observe and sometimes produce anomalous 

results that require calibration or even overriding. The LoadMAP approach allows the user to 

drive the appliance and equipment choices year by year directly in the model. This flexible 

approach allows users to import the results from diffusion models or to input individual 

assumptions. The framework also facilitates sensitivity analysis. 

• Includes appliance and equipment models customized by end use. For example, the logic for 

lighting is distinct from refrigerators and freezers. 

• Can accommodate various levels of segmentation. Analysis can be performed at the sector 

level (e.g., total residential) or for customized segments within sectors (e.g., housing type or 

income level).

Consistent with the segmentation scheme and the market profiles we describe below, the 

LoadMAP model provides forecasts of baseline energy use by sector, segment, end use, and 

technology for existing and new buildings. It also provides forecasts of total energy use and 

energy-efficiency savings associated with the four types of potential.4

Figure 2-2 LoadMAP Analysis Framework 

Market Characterization

In order to estimate the savings potential from energy-efficient measures, it is necessary to 

understand how much energy is used today and what equipment is currently being used. This 

characterization begins with a segmentation of Ameren’s electricity footprint to quantify energy 

use by sector, segment, end-use application, and the current set of technologies used. We 

incorporate information from the customer surveys performed for this study, the 2010 Ameren 

DSM Potential Study (2010 Study) and secondary research sources to advise the market 

characterization. 

 

4 The model computes energy and peak-demand forecasts for each type of potential for each end use as an intermediate calculation. 

Annual-energy and peak-demand savings are calculated as the difference between the value in the baseline projection and the value in 

the potential forecast (e.g., the technical potential forecast).

Forecast Data

Market Profiles

Market size

Equipment saturation

Fuel shares

Technology shares

Vintage distribution

Unit energy consumption

Coincident demand

Base-year Energy

Consumption

by technology,

end use, segment, 

vintage & sector

Economic Data

Customer growth

Energy prices

Exogenous factors

Elasticities

Energy-efficiency

analysis

Forecast Results

List of measures

Saturations

Adoption rates

Avoided costs

Cost-effectiveness 

screening

Baseline forecast

Savings

Estimates

(Annual & peak)

Technical potential

Economic potential

Achievable potential

Customer segmentation Energy-efficiency 

forecasts:

Technical

Economic 

Achievable

Technology Data

Efficiency options

Codes and standards

Purchase shares
Analysis Approach and Data Development

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Segmentation for Modeling Purposes 

The market assessment first defined the market segments (building types, end uses and other 

dimensions) that are relevant in the Ameren service territory. The segmentation scheme for this 

project is presented in Table 2-1. 

Table 2-1 Overview of Segmentation Scheme for EE Potentials Modeling 

Market 

Dimension Segmentation Variable Dimension Examples

1 Sector Residential, commercial, industrial

2 Building type

Residential (single family, multi family)

Commercial (office, restaurant, retail, etc.)

Industrial 

3 Vintage Existing and new construction

4 End uses Cooling, lighting, water heat, motors, etc. (as 

appropriate by sector)

5 Appliances/end uses and 

technologies

Technologies such as lamp type, air conditioning 

equipment, motors by application, etc.

6 Equipment efficiency levels for 

new purchases

Baseline and higher-efficiency options as appropriate 

for each technology

Following this scheme, the residential sector was segmented into two housing types: single 

family and multi-family. In addition to segmentation by housing type, we identified the set of end 

uses and technologies that are appropriate for Ameren. These are shown in Table 2-2.
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EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2-5

Table 2-2 Residential Electric End Uses and Technologies 

End Use Technology

Cooling Central AC

Cooling Room AC

Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump

Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump

Heating Electric Resistance

Heating Furnace

Heating Air-Source Heat Pump

Heating Geothermal Heat Pump

Water Heating Water Heater <= 55 gal

Water Heating Water Heater > 55 gal

Interior Lighting Screw-in

Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent

Interior Lighting Specialty

Exterior Lighting Screw-in

Appliances Refrigerator

Appliances Second Refrigerator

Appliances Freezer

Appliances Clothes Washer

Appliances Clothes Dryer

Appliances Dishwasher

Appliances Stove

Appliances Microwave

Electronics Personal Computers

Electronics Monitor

Electronics Laptops

Electronics TVs

Electronics Printer/Fax/Copier

Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVR

Electronics Devices and Gadgets

Miscellaneous Air Purifier/Cleaner

Miscellaneous Dehumidifier

Miscellaneous Pool Pump

Miscellaneous Pool Heater 

Miscellaneous Hot Tub / Spa

Miscellaneous Furnace Fan

Miscellaneous Miscellaneous

For the commercial sector, it is useful to analyze the segments based on the unique 

characteristics of the building type. For this study, we used the following segments.

• Offices—all types including medical/dental offices and government offices

• Restaurant—fast-food, sit-down and cafeteria-style restaurants

• Retail—retail establishments such as small boutiques, and large box retailers

• Grocery—convenience stores, small markets, and supermarkets

• Education—primary and secondary schools, colleges, universities and technical colleges

• Health—hospitals and nursing homes
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• Lodging—motels, hotels, resorts and small inns

• Warehouse—storage facilities, refrigerated and unrefrigerated

• Miscellaneous—all remaining building types, such as police stations, parking garages, public 

assembly, amusement parks, etc.

In addition to segmentation by building type, we identified the set of end uses and technologies 

that are appropriate for Ameren. Table 2-3 lists the end uses and technologies used in this study.

Table 2-3 Commercial Electric End Uses and Technologies 

End Use Technology

Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller

Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller

Cooling Roof top AC

Cooling Air Source Heat Pump

Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump

Cooling PTAC

Cooling PTHP

Heating Electric Furnace

Heating Air Source Heat Pump

Heating Geothermal Heat Pump

Heating Electric Room Heat

Heating PTHP

Ventilation Ventilation

Water Heating Water Heating

Interior Lighting Screw-in

Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures

Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent

Exterior Lighting Screw-in

Exterior Lighting HID

Exterior Lighting Linear Fluorescent

Refrigeration Walk-in Refrigerator

Refrigeration Reach-in Refrigerator

Refrigeration Glass Door Display

Refrigeration Open Display Case

Refrigeration Icemaker

Refrigeration Vending Machine

Food Preparation Oven

Food Preparation Fryer

Food Preparation Dishwasher

Food Preparation Hot Food Container

Office Equipment Desktop Computer

Office Equipment Laptop

Office Equipment Server

Office Equipment Monitor

Office Equipment Printer/Copier/Fax

Office Equipment POS Terminal

Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors

Miscellaneous Pool Pump

Miscellaneous Pool Heater

Miscellaneous Clothes Washer

Miscellaneous Clothes Dryer

Miscellaneous Miscellaneous
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The industrial sector was modeled as a whole. The set of end uses and technologies that are 

appropriate for Ameren’s industrial sector are shown in Table 2-4.

Table 2-4 Industrial Electric End Uses and Technologies 

End Use Technology

Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller

Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller

Cooling Roof top AC

Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump

Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump

Cooling PTAC

Cooling PTHP

Heating Electric Furnace

Heating Air-Source Heat Pump

Heating Geothermal Heat Pump

Heating Electric Room Heat

Heating PTHP

Ventilation Ventilation

Interior Lighting Screw-in

Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures

Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent

Exterior Lighting Screw-in

Exterior Lighting HID

Exterior Lighting Linear Fluorescent

Motors Pumps

Motors Fans & Blowers

Motors Compressed Air

Motors Material Handling

Motors Material Processing

Motors Other Motors

Process Process Heating

Process Process Cooling and Refrigeration

Process Electro-Chemical Processes

Process Other Process

Miscellaneous Miscellaneous

With the segmentation scheme defined, we then performed a high-level market characterization 

of electricity sales in the base year to allocate sales to each customer segment. We used various 

data sources to identify the annual sales in each customer segment, as well as the market size 

for each segment. This information provided control totals at a sector level for calibrating the 

LoadMAP model to known data for the base-year.

Market Profiles

The next step was to develop market profiles for each sector, customer segment, end use, and 

technology. A market profile includes the following elements:

• Market size is a representation of the number of customers in the segment. For the 

residential sector, it is number of households. In the commercial sector, it is floor space 

measured in square feet. For the industrial sector, it is number of employees. 

• Saturations define the fraction of homes and square feet with the various technologies. 

(e.g., homes with electric space heating). 
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• UEC (unit energy consumption) or EUI (energy-use index) describes the amount of 

energy consumed in 2011 by a specific technology in buildings that have the technology. For 

electricity, UECs are expressed in kWh/household for the residential sector, and EUIs are 

expressed in kWh/square foot or kWh/employee for the commercial and industrial sectors, 

respectively.

• Intensity for the residential sector represents the average energy use for the technology 

across all homes in 2011. It is computed as the product of the saturation and the UEC and is 

defined as kWh/household for electricity. For the commercial and industrial sectors, intensity, 

computed as the product of the saturation and the EUI, represents the average use for the 

technology across all floor space or all employees in 2011.

• Usage is the annual energy use by an end use technology in the segment. It is the product 

of the market size and intensity and is quantified in GWh. The market assessment results and 

the market profiles are presented in Chapter 3.

Baseline Projection

The next step was to develop the baseline projection of annual electricity use for 2012 through 

2033 by customer segment and end use without new utility programs. The end-use projection

includes the relatively certain impacts of codes and standards that will unfold over the study 

timeframe. All such mandates that were defined as of January 2013 are included in the baseline. 

The baseline projection is the foundation for the analysis of savings from future EE efforts as 

well as the metric against which potential savings are measured.

Inputs to the baseline projection include:

• Current economic growth forecasts (i.e., customer growth, income growth)

• Electricity price forecasts

• Trends in fuel shares and equipment saturations 

• Existing and approved changes to building codes and equipment standards

• Naturally occurring efficiency improvements, which include purchases of high-efficiency 

equipment options by early adopters. 

In addition to the baseline projection that includes naturally occurring efficiency improvements, 

the study also developed a projection that does not include these naturally occurring 

improvements. It is based on purchase shares that are held fixed at the minimum efficiency level 

available in the marketplace. The difference between these two projections is the amount of 

naturally occurring efficiency. We present the baseline-projection results, along with estimates of 

naturally occurring efficiency savings, in Chapter 4.

Energy Efficiency Measure Analysis

This section describes the framework used to assess the savings, costs, and other attributes of 

energy-efficiency measures. These characteristics form the basis for measure-level costeffectiveness analyses as well as for determining measure-level savings. For all measures, 

EnerNOC assembled information to reflect equipment performance, incremental costs, and 

equipment lifetimes. We used this information, along with Ameren’s avoided costs data, in the 

economic screen to determine economically feasible measures. Figure 2-3 outlines the framework 

for measure analysis.
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EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2-9

Figure 2-3 Approach for Measure Assessment 

The framework for assessing savings, costs, and other attributes of energy efficiency measures 

involves identifying the list of energy efficiency measures to include in the analysis, determining 

their applicability to each market sector and segment, fully characterizing each measure, and 

performing cost-effectiveness screening. 

We compiled a robust list of energy efficiency measures for each customer sector, drawing upon 

Ameren program experience and protocols, the Missouri TRM, EnerNOC’s own measure 

databases and building simulation models, and secondary sources. This universal list of EE 

measures covers all major types of end-use equipment, as well as devices and actions to reduce 

energy consumption. If considered today, some of these measures would not pass the economic 

screens initially, but may pass in future years as a result of lower projected equipment costs or 

higher avoided costs.

The selected measures are categorized into two types according to the LoadMAP taxonomy: 

equipment measures and non-equipment measures.

• Equipment measures are efficient energy-consuming pieces of equipment that save energy 

by providing the same service with a lower energy requirement than a standard unit. An 

example is an ENERGY STAR refrigerator that replaces a standard efficiency refrigerator. For 

equipment measures, many efficiency levels may be available for a given technology, ranging 

from the baseline unit (often determined by code or standard) up to the most efficient 

product commercially available. For instance, in the case of central air conditioners, this list 

begins with the current federal standard SEER 13 unit and spans a broad spectrum up to a 

maximum efficiency of a SEER 21 unit.

• Non-equipment measures save energy by reducing the need for delivered energy, but do 

not involve replacement or purchase of major end-use equipment (such as a refrigerator or 

air conditioner). An example would be a programmable thermostat that is pre-set to run 

heating and cooling systems only when people are home. Non-equipment measures can 

Economic 

screen

Measure characterization

Measure 

descriptions

Energy 

savings Costs

Lifetime Applicability

EnerNOC 

universal 

measure list

Building 

simulations

EnerNOC measure 

data library

Client measure data 

library 

(TRMs, evaluation 

reports, etc)

Avoided costs, 

discount rate, 

delivery losses

Client review / 

feedback

Inputs Process
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apply to more than one end use. For instance, addition of wall insulation will affect the 

energy use of both space heating and cooling. Non-equipment measures typically fall into 

one of the following categories: 

o Building shell (windows, insulation, roofing material)

o Equipment controls (thermostat, energy management system)

o Equipment maintenance (cleaning filters, changing setpoints)

o Whole-building design (building orientation, passive solar lighting)

o Lighting retrofits (included as a non-equipment measure because retrofits are performed 

prior to the equipment’s normal end of life)

o Displacement measures (ceiling fan to reduce use of central air conditioners)

o Commissioning and retrocommissioning

We developed a preliminary list of EE measures, which was distributed to Ameren staff and 

stakeholders for review. The list was finalized after incorporating comments and is presented in 

the appendix to this volume. 

Once we assembled the list of EE measures, the project team assessed their energy-saving 

characteristics. For each measure we also characterized incremental cost, service life, and other 

performance factors. Following the measure characterization, we performed an economic 

screening of each measure, which serves as the basis for developing the economic and 

achievable potential. 

Representative Measure Data Inputs 

To provide an example of the measure data, Table 2-5 and Table 2-6 present examples of the 

detailed data inputs behind both equipment and non-equipment measures, respectively, for the 

case of residential CAC in single-family homes. Table 2-5 displays the various efficiency levels 

available as equipment measures, as well as the corresponding useful life, energy usage, and 

cost estimates. The columns labeled On Market and Off Market reflect equipment availability due 

to codes and standards or the entry of new products to the market.

Table 2-5 Example Equipment Measures for Central Air Conditioning – Single Family Home 

Efficiency Level Useful Life Equipment 

Cost

Energy 

Usage(kWh/yr)

On 

Market

Off 

Market

SEER 13 18 $3,311 2,287 2011 n/a

SEER 14 (ENERGY STAR) 18 $3,716 2,097 2011 n/a

SEER 15 (CEE Tier 2) 18 $4,120 2,013 2011 n/a

SEER 16 (CEE Tier 3) 18 $4,524 1,942 2011 n/a

SEER 17 (Ductless Mini-split) 18 $5,943 1,882 2011 n/a

SEER 21 18 $6,395 1,524 2011 n/a

Table 2-6 lists some of the non-equipment measures applicable to CAC in an existing singlefamily home. All measures are evaluated for cost-effectiveness based on the lifetime benefits 

relative to the cost of the measure. The total savings and costs are calculated for each year of 

the study and depend on the base year saturation of the measure, the applicability 5 of the 

measure, and the savings as a percentage of the relevant energy end uses. 

 

5 The applicability factors take into account whether the measure is applicable to a particular building type and whether it is feasible to 

install the measure. For instance, attic fans are not applicable to homes where there is insufficient space in the attic or there is no attic 

at all.
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Table 2-6 Example Non-Equipment Measures – Single Family Home, Existing 

End Use Measure Saturation 

in 20116

ApplicabilityLifetime 

(yrs)

Measure 

Installed 

Cost

Energy 

Savings (%)

Cooling Central AC - Maintenance 37% 100% 2 $175 5%

Cooling Repair and Sealing – Ducting 16% 50% 18 $498 16%

Cooling Insulation - Ceiling 33% 38% 20 $363 1%

Cooling Windows – Install Reflective Film 5% 45% 10 $1,029 11%

Cooling Windows - ENERGY STAR 47% 90% 20 $7,134 32%

Screening Measures for Cost-Effectiveness 

Only measures that are cost-effective are included in economic and achievable potential.

Therefore, for each individual measure, LoadMAP performs an economic screen. This study uses 

the TRC test that compares the lifetime energy benefits (and peak demand for electricity) of 

each applicable measure with its incremental installed cost, including material and labor. There is 

no program administration cost considered in this analysis, and therefore, no specific program 

delivery methods or mechanisms are assumed. The lifetime benefits are calculated by multiplying 

the annual energy and demand savings for each measure by all appropriate avoided costs for 

each year, and discounting the dollar savings to the present value equivalent. The analysis uses 

each measure’s values for savings, costs, and lifetimes that were developed as part of the 

measure characterization process described above. 

The LoadMAP model performs this screening dynamically, taking into account changing savings 

and cost data over time. Thus, some measures pass the economic screen for some — but not all 

— of the years in the forecast. 

It is important to note the following about the economic screen: 

• The economic evaluation of every measure in the screen is conducted relative to a baseline 

condition. For instance, in order to determine the kilowatt-hour (kWh) savings potential of a 

measure, kWh consumption with the measure applied must be compared to the kWh 

consumption of a baseline condition. 

• The economic screening was conducted only for measures that are applicable to each 

building type and vintage; thus if a measure is deemed to be irrelevant to a particular 

building type and vintage, it is excluded from the respective economic screen.

Table 2-7 shows the results of the economic screen, highlighting the economic unit for a central 

air-source heat pump and select other measures. In 2014, the federal minimum standard 

efficiency for heat pumps changes from SEER 13 to SEER 14. Before this change, the cost is 

prohibitive to improve from a SEER 13 baseline. After 2014, however, the incremental cost to go 

from a SEER 14 to a SEER 15 is proportionally less, thereby making this measure cost-effective. 

For pool heaters, a heat pump unit is cost effective in all years. For refrigerators, the AHAM 

federal efficiency standards cause existing Energy Star units to become obsolete in 2014. Units 

compliant with AHAM 2014 thus become the new minimum efficiency baseline. Since there is not 

a more efficient, cost-effective unit available, they become both the baseline unit and the 

economic unit by default. If the measure passes the screen (has a B/C ratio greater than or 

equal to 1), the measure is included in economic potential. Otherwise, it is screened out for that 

year. If multiple equipment measures have B/C ratios greater than or equal to 1.0, the most 

efficient technology is selected by the economic screen. 

 

6 Note that saturation levels reflected for the base year change over time as more measures are adopted. 
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Table 2-7 Economic Screen Results for Selected Residential Equipment Measures 

Technology 2016 2017 2018

Air Source Heat Pump SEER 16 SEER 16 SEER 16

Pool Heater Electric Resistance Electric Resistance Heat Pump (COP = 5.0)

Refrigerator AHAM (2014) AHAM (2014) AHAM (2014)

Table 2-8 summarizes the number of equipment and non-equipment measures evaluated for 

each segment within each sector.

Table 2-8 Number of Measures Evaluated 

Residential Commercial Industrial

Total Number 

of Measures

Equipment Measures Evaluated 115 151 102 368

Non-Equipment Measures Evaluated 47 85 67 199

Total Measures Evaluated 162 236 169 567

The appendix to this volume presents results for the economic screening process by segment, 

vintage, end use and measure for all sectors.

Energy-Efficiency Potential

The approach we used for this study adheres to the approaches and conventions outlined in the 

National Action Plan for Energy-Efficiency (NAPEE) Guide for Conducting Potential Studies 

(November 2007).7 The NAPEE Guide represents the most credible and comprehensive industry 

practice for specifying energy-efficiency potential. As described in Chapter 1, four types of 

potentials were developed as part of this effort: Technical potential, Economic potential, Realistic 

Achievable Potential and Maximum Achievable potential.

The calculation of Technical and Economic potential is a straightforward algorithm. To develop 

estimates for Achievable potential, we develop market adoption rates for each measure that 

specify the percentage of customers that will select the highest–efficiency economic option. The 

market adoption rates are developed based on the results of the program interest surveys that 

were conducted as part of the primary market research. This more accurately reflects the 

attitudes of Ameren Missouri’s customers.

• For Realistic Achievable, we used the average take rates for a 3-year payback period for 

the measure. Several measures were tested in the survey. These were then mapped to the 

other remaining measures based on familiarity and ease of installing. 

• For Maximum Achievable, we used the 1-year payback take rates for those respondents 

that were more aware and/or more experienced with the measure. This represents a scenario 

where customers are aware of the measure and the program and receive a higher incentive 

that reduces the payback to one year. Volume 2 provides detailed information about the 

estimation of take rates.

Based on EnerNOC’s experience running programs and evaluating programs at other utilities, we 

estimate that the take rates will increase slightly each year as the program and awareness ramps 

up. Therefore we increase the base year take rates by 0.5% per year. The measure-level 

potential results are presented in Chapter 5.

 

7 National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (2007). National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Vision for 2025: Developing a Framework 

for Change. www.epa.gov/eeactionplan.
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Program Potential

We then developed preliminary energy efficiency programs for the purpose of developing supply 

curves. In this step, cost-effective measures are mapped into a specific set of programs. We 

describe the programs in terms of costs, savings, strategy, and delivery mechanism. Incentive 

strategies are set and quantified in terms of the appropriate portion of incremental measure 

costs. In turn, the various program costs (implementation, marketing & education, evaluation, 

and administration) are added to the incentive budget using best practice research, industry 

benchmarks, and market trends.

We created two levels of program potential that correspond with measure-level MAP and RAP 

potential. In their development, we considered industry benchmarks, past Ameren programs, and 

feedback from Ameren staff. Program-level results and supply curves are presented in Chapter 6. 

Data Development

This section details the data sources used in this study, followed by a discussion of how these 

sources were applied. In general, data were adapted to local conditions, for example, by using 

local sources for measure data and local weather for building simulations.

Data Sources

The data sources are organized into the following categories:

• Ameren data

• EnerNOC’s databases and analysis tools

• Other secondary data and reports

Ameren Data 

Our highest priority data sources for this study were those that were specific to Ameren. 

• Ameren customer data: Ameren provided billing data for non-residential customer 

establishments. These data were used to develop the sample designs and for the customer 

surveys. 

• Load forecasts: Ameren provided an economic growth forecast by sector; electric load 

forecast; peak-demand forecasts at the sector level; and retail electricity price history and 

forecasts.

• Economic information: Ameren provided avoided cost forecasts, a discount rate, and line 

loss factor. 

• Missouri TRM: Ameren provided the Missouri TRM and EnerNOC used it to characterize the 

energy efficiency measures evaluated in this study. 

• Ameren program data: Ameren provided information about past and current programs, 

including program descriptions, goals and achievements to date.

EnerNOC maintains several databases and modeling tools that we use for forecasting and 

potential studies. 

• EnerNOC Energy Market Profiles: For more than 10 years, EnerNOC staff have 

maintained profiles of end-use consumption for the residential, commercial, and industrial 

sectors. These profiles include market size, fuel shares, unit consumption estimates, and 

annual energy use by fuel (electricity and natural gas), customer segment and end use for 10 

regions in the U.S. The Energy Information Administration surveys (RECS, CBECS and MECS) 

as well as state-level statistics and local customer research provide the foundation for these 

regional profiles.
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• Building Energy Simulation Tool (BEST). EnerNOC’s BEST is a derivative of the DOE 2.2 

building simulation model, used to estimate base-year UECs and EUIs, as well as measure 

savings for the HVAC-related measures.

• EnerNOC’s EnergyShapeTM: This database of load shapes includes the following: 

Residential – electric load shapes for 10 regions, 3 housing types, 13 end uses; Commercial –

electric load shapes for 9 regions, 54 building types, 10 end uses; Industrial – electric load 

shapes, whole facility only, 19 2-digit SIC codes, as well as various 3-digit and 4-digit SIC 

codes 

• EnerNOC’s Database of Energy Efficiency Measures (DEEM): EnerNOC maintains an 

extensive database of measure data for our studies. Our database draws upon reliable 

sources including the California Database for Energy Efficient Resources (DEER), the EIA 

Technology Forecast Updates – Residential and Commercial Building Technologies –

Reference Case, RS Means cost data, and Grainger Catalog Cost data.

• Recent studies. EnerNOC has conducted numerous studies of EE potential in the last five 

years. We checked our input assumptions and analysis results against the results from these 

other studies, which include the 2010 Ameren Missouri Study, Indianapolis Power & Light, 

Tennessee Valley Authority, Ameren Illinois, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, 

Consolidated Edison of New York, Avista Utilities, the State of New Mexico, and Seattle City 

Light. In addition, we used the information about impacts of building codes and appliance 

standards from recent reports for the Edison Electric Institute 8

.

Other Secondary Data and Reports 

Finally, a variety of secondary data sources and reports were used for this study. The main 

sources are identified below. 

• Annual Energy Outlook. The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), conducted each year by the 

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents yearly projections and analysis of 

energy topics. For this study, we used data from the 2013 AEO. 

• American Community Survey: The US Census American Community Survey is an ongoing 

survey that provides data every year on household characteristics. Data for Ameren were 

available for this study. http://www.census.gov/acs/www/

• Missouri Weather Data: Weather from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center for St. Louis 

was used as the basis for building simulations.

• EPRI End-Use Models (REEPS and COMMEND). These models provide the elasticities we 

apply to electricity prices, household income, home size and heating and cooling.

• Database for Energy Efficient Resources (DEER). The California Energy Commission 

and California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) sponsor this database, which is designed to 

provide well-documented estimates of energy and peak demand savings values, measure 

costs, and effective useful life (EUL) for the state of California. We used the DEER database 

to cross check the measure savings we developed using BEST and DEEM.

• Northwest Power and Conservation Council Sixth Plan workbooks. To develop its 

Power Plan, the Council maintains workbooks with detailed information about measures. 

• Other relevant regional sources: These include reports from the Consortium for Energy 

Efficiency, the EPA, and the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.

 

8 EnerNOC staff have prepared three white papers on the topic of factors that affect U.S. electricity consumption, 

including appliance standards and building codes. Links to all three white papers are provided: 

http://www.edisonfoundation.net/IEE/Documents/IEE_RohmundApplianceStandardsEfficiencyCodes1209.pdf

http://www.edisonfoundation.net/iee/Documents/IEE_CodesandStandardsAssessment_2010-2025_UPDATE.pdf. 

http://www.edisonfoundation.net/iee/Documents/IEE_FactorsAffectingUSElecConsumption_Final.pdf
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Application of Data to the Analysis

We now discuss how the data sources described above were used for each step of the study.

Data Application for Market Characterization 

To construct the high-level market characterization of electricity use and households/floor space 

for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, we applied the following data sources: 

• Ameren customer surveys to allocate residential customers by housing type. This was 

compared to American Community Survey (ACS) and the 2010 Ameren study.

• Ameren billing data and customer surveys to estimate sales and square footage by building 

type for the commercial sector. The estimates were also compared with the 2010 Ameren 

study, estimates used by Load Forecasting, and our Energy Market Profiles Database.

• Ameren billing data and customer surveys to estimate energy use and employment for the 

industrial sector. These estimates were then compared to the 2010 Ameren study.

Data Application for Market Profiles 

The specific data elements for the market profiles, together with the key data sources, are 

shown in Table 2-9. To develop the market profiles for each segment, we used the following 

approach: 

1. Developed control totals for each segment. These include market size, segment-level annual 

electricity use, and annual intensity. 

2. Used Ameren saturation surveys from this study, survey results from the 2010 Ameren Study,

RECS 2009, and the American Housing Survey to incorporate information on existing 

appliance saturations, appliance and equipment characteristics, and building characteristics. 

3. Incorporated secondary data sources to supplement and corroborate the data from items 1 

and 2 above.

4. Compared and cross-checked with regional data in the Energy Market Profiles Database and 

other recent EnerNOC studies.

5. Ensured calibration to control totals for annual electricity sales in each sector and segment.

6. Worked with Ameren staff to vet the data against their knowledge and experience.

Data Application for Baseline projection 

Table 2-10 summarizes the LoadMAP model inputs required for the baseline projection. These 

inputs are required for each segment within each sector, as well as for new construction and 

existing dwellings/buildings. 

In addition, we implemented assumptions for known future equipment standards as of June 

2013, as shown in Table 2-11 and Table 2-12.
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Table 2-9 Data Applied for the Market Profiles 

Model Inputs Description Key Sources

Market size Base-year residential dwellings, commercial 

floor space, and industrial employment

Ameren billing data

Ameren current saturation survey

2010 Ameren Study

Ameren Load Forecasting

Annual intensity

Residential: Annual energy use 

(kWh/household)

Commercial: Annual energy use (kWh/sq ft)

Industrial: Annual energy use 

(kWh/employee)

Ameren current saturation surveys

2010 Ameren Study

Energy Market Profiles

AEO 2012

Other recent studies

Appliance/equipment 

saturations

Fraction of dwellings with an 

appliance/technology

Percentage of C&I floor space/employment 

with equipment/technology

Ameren current saturation survey

2010 Ameren Study

Energy Market Profiles

Ameren Load Forecasting

UEC/EUI for each enduse technology

UEC: Annual electricity use for a technology 

in dwellings that have the technology

EUI: Annual electricity use per square 

foot/employee for a technology in floor 

space that has the technology

HVAC uses: BEST simulations using 

prototypes developed for Missouri

Missouri TRM

Engineering analysis

DEEM

Recent EnerNOC studies

Appliance/equipment 

vintage distribution Age distribution for each technology Ameren saturation surveysRecent EnerNOC studies

Efficiency options for 

each technology

List of available efficiency options and 

annual energy use for each technology

Missouri TRM

DEEM

DEER

NWPCC workbooks

AEO 2013

Previous studies

Peak factors Share of technology energy use that occurs 

during the peak hour EnergyShape database

Table 2-10 Data Needs for the Baseline projection and Potentials Estimation in LoadMAP 

Model Inputs Description Key Sources

Customer growth forecasts Forecasts of new construction in 

residential and C&I sectors

Ameren Missouri load forecast

AEO 2013 economic growth forecast

Equipment purchase shares 

for baseline projection

For each equipment/technology, 

purchase shares for each efficiency 

level; specified separately for existing 

equipment replacement and new 

construction

Shipments data from AEO

AEO 2013 regional forecast 

assumptions9

Appliance/efficiency standards 

analysis

Ameren Missouri program results 

and evaluation reports

Electricity prices Forecast of average energy and 

capacity avoided costs and retail prices

Ameren Missouri forecast

AEO 2013

Utilization model 

parameters

Price elasticities, elasticities for other 

variables (income, weather)

EPRI’s REEPS and COMMEND models

AEO 2013

 

9 We developed baseline purchase decisions using the Energy Information Agency’s Annual Energy Outlook report (2013), which utilizes 

the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to produce a self-consistent supply and demand economic model. We calibrated 

equipment purchase options to match manufacturer shipment data for recent years and then held values constant for the study period. 

This removes any effects of naturally occurring conservation or effects of future DSM programs that may be embedded in the AEO 

forecasts. 
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Table 2-11 Residential Electric Equipment Standards 

Today's Efficiency or Standard Assumption 1st Standard (relative to today's standard)

2nd Standard (relative to today's standard)

End Use Technology 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 

Central AC

Room AC

Evaporative Central AC

Evaporative Room AC

Cooling/Heating Heat Pump

Space Heating Electric Resistance

Water Heater (<=55 gallons)

Water Heater (>55 gallons)

Screw-in/Pin Lamps

Linear Fluorescent T12 

Refrigerator/2nd Refrigerator

Freezer

Dishwasher Conventional 

(355kWh/yr)

Clothes Washer

Clothes Dryer

NAECA Standard

NAECA Standard

Conventional 

(MEF 1.26 for top loader)

Conventional (EF 3.01)

Cooling

EER 11.0

SEER 13

EER 9.8

Conventional

Conventional

Water Heating

EF 0.95

Heat Pump Water Heater

EF 0.90

EF 0.90

Advanced Incandescent - tier 2 (45 lumens/watt)

T8

SEER 13.0/HSPF 7.7 SEER 14.0/HSPF 8.0

Electric Resistance

Incandescent

5% more efficient (EF 3.17)

Appliances

25% more efficient 

25% more efficient 

14% more efficient (307 kWh/yr)

MEF 1.72 for top loader MEF 2.0 for top loader

Lighting

Advanced Incandescent - tier 1 (20 lumens/watt)
Analysis Approach and Data Development

2-18 www.enernoc.com

Table 2-12 Commercial Electric Equipment Standards 

Today's Efficiency or Standard Assumption 1st Standard (relative to today's standard)

2nd Standard (relative to today's standard)

End Use Technology 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 

Chillers

Roof Top Units

Packaged Terminal AC/HP

Cooling/Heating Heat Pump

Ventilation Ventilation

Screw-in/Pin Lamps

Linear Fluorescent

High Intensity Discharge

Water Heating Water Heater

Walk-in Refrigerator/Freezer

Reach-in Refrigerator

Glass Door Display

Open Display Case

Vending Machines

Icemaker

Non-HVAC Motors

Commercial Laundry

Miscellaneous

Incandescent Advanced Incandescent - tier 1 (20 lumens/watt)

EISA 2007 Standard

MEF 1.26 MEF 1.6

62.3% Efficiency 70% Efficiency

EF 0.97

Refrigeration

EPACT 2005 Standard

42% more efficient

18% more efficient

33% more efficient

2010 Standard

88 lumens/watt

Lighting T12 T8

Cooling

2007 ASHRAE 90.1

EER 11.0/11.2

EER 11.0/11.2

EER 11.0/COP 3.3

Advanced Incandescent - tier 2 (45 lumens/watt)

Constant Air Volume/Variable Air Volume
Analysis Approach and Data Development

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2-19

Energy Efficiency Measure Data Application 

Table 2-13 details the energy-efficiency data inputs to the LoadMAP model. It describes each 

input and identifies the key sources used in the Ameren analysis.

Table 2-13 Data Needs for the Measure Characteristics in LoadMAP 

Model Inputs Description Key Sources

Energy Impacts

The annual reduction in consumption attributable 

to each specific measure. Savings were developed 

as a percentage of the energy end use that the 

measure affects.

Missouri TRM

BEST

DEEM

DEER

NWPCC workbooks

Other secondary sources

Peak Demand Impacts

Savings during the peak demand periods are 

specified for each electric measure. These impacts 

relate to the energy savings and depend on the 

extent to which each measure is coincident with 

the system peak.

Missouri TRM

BEST

EnergyShape

Costs

Equipment Measures: Includes the full cost of 

purchasing and installing the equipment on a perhousehold, per-square-foot, or per employee basis 

for the residential, commercial, and industrial

sectors, respectively.

Non-equipment measures: Existing buildings – full 

installed cost. New Construction - the costs may be 

either the full cost of the measure, or as 

appropriate, it may be the incremental cost of 

upgrading from a standard level to a higher 

efficiency level.

Missouri TRM

DEEM

DEER

NWPCC workbooks

RS Means

Other secondary sources

Measure Lifetimes

Estimates derived from the technical data and 

secondary data sources that support the measure 

demand and energy savings analysis.

Missouri TRM

DEEM

DEER

NWPCC workbooks

Other secondary sources

Applicability

Estimate of the percentage of either dwellings in 

the residential sector or square feet/employment

in the C&I sectors where the measure is applicable 

and where it is technically feasible to implement.

Missouri TRM

DEEM

DEER

Other secondary sources

On Market and Off 

Market Availability

Expressed as years for equipment measures to 

reflect when the equipment technology is available 

or no longer available in the market.

EnerNOC appliance 

standards and building 

codes analysis

Data Application for Cost-effectiveness Screening 

To perform the cost-effectiveness screening, a number of economic assumptions were needed. 

All cost and benefit values were analyzed as real 2012 dollars. A discount rate of 7% in nominal 

terms was used. This is equivalent to a 3.93% discount rate in real terms when adjusting for 

2.92% inflation. 10 Electric delivery losses of 6.7% were provided by Ameren.

 

10 Inflation adjuster of 2.92% based on the average annual growth forecast in US Consumer Price Index from the 2012 Annual Energy 

Outlook for 2010-2035.
Analysis Approach and Data Development

2-20 www.enernoc.com

Achievable Potential Estimation 

To estimate achievable potential, three sets of parameters are needed to represent customer 

decision making behavior with respect to energy-efficiency choices. 

• Adoption curves for non-equipment measures. Equipment measures are installed when 

existing units fail. Non-equipment measures do not have this natural periodicity, so rather 

than installing all available non-equipment measures in the first year of the projection

(instantaneous potential), they are phased in according to adoption schedules that vary 

based on cost and complexity. The adoption rates used in this analysis take several factors 

into account to determine how quickly the market can absorb these measures. Typically, 

measures that cause disruption to the building, such as wall insulation in existing buildings, 

receive longer adoption curves, while those with drop-in installations, such as programmable 

thermostats in new buildings, receive shorter ones. High capital cost measures will also 

receive longer adoption curves than ones with low capital cost. These adoption rates are 

used within LoadMAP to generate the Technical and Economic potentials. In general, the 

rates align with the diffusion of similar equipment measures.

• Maximum Achievable adoption rates. Maximum achievable adoption rates are applied to 

Economic potential to estimate Maximum Achievable potential. These rates represent 

customer adoption of economic measures when delivered through ideally-operated efficiency 

programs and under a supportive regulatory framework. Information channels are assumed 

to be established and efficient for marketing, educating consumers, and coordinating with 

trade allies and delivery partners. The only barrier to adoption reflected in this case is 

customer preferences. 

The Maximum Achievable adoption rates are based on the take rates for a 1-year payback 

from customers that are aware and have information about energy efficiency measures and 

programs. The take rates were developed based on the results of the program interest 

survey conducted as part of this study and described in Volume 2 of the report. 

• Realistic Achievable adoption rates. To calculate Realistic Achievable potential, Realistic 

Achievable adoption rates are applied. The Realistic Achievable adoption rates are based on 

the average three-year payback take rate from the primary market research. These rates 

reflect expected program participation given significant barriers to customer acceptance, 

non-ideal implementation conditions, and limited program budgets. This represents a lower 

bound on achievable potential.

Realistic Achievable and Maximum Achievable adoption rates are presented in the appendix to 

this volume. The development of the take rates are detailed in Volume 2.
EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 3-1

MARKET CHARACTERIZATION AND MARKET PROFILES

In this section, we describe how customers in the Ameren Missouri service territory use 

electricity in the base year of the study, 2011. It begins with a high-level summary of energy use 

by sector and then delves into each sector in detail.

Energy Use Summary

Total electricity use for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors for Ameren in 2011

was 30,753 GWh. This total does not include opt-out customers. As a result, and as shown in 

Figure 3-1, the largest sector is commercial, accounting for 46% of load at 14,241 GWh. The 

residential sector accounts for 44% or 13,375 GWh. The industrial sector, less some very large 

opt-out customers, accounts for 10%, or 3,137 GWh.

Figure 3-1 Sector-Level Electricity Use, 2011 

Residential

44%

Commercial

46%

Industrial

10%

CHAPTER 3
Market Characterization and Market Profiles

3-2 www.enernoc.com

Residential Sector

The total number of households and electric sales for the service territory were obtained from 

Ameren’s customer database. In 2011, there were just over 1 million households in the Ameren

territory that used a total of 13,375 GWh. We allocated these totals into the two residential 

segments and the values are shown in Table 3-1. These are the control totals to which 

residential electricity use is calibrated in the base year of the study.

Table 3-1 Residential Sector Energy Usage and Intensity by Segment Type, 2011 

Segment No. of Households 2011 Electricity

Use (GWh)

Intensity

(kWh/Household)

Single Family 754,472 11,208 14,856

Multi Family 280,077 2,167 7,737

Total 1,034,549 13,375 12,929

Composite Electric Profile 

As we describe in the previous chapter, the market profiles provide the foundation for 

development of the baseline projection and the potential estimates. The average market profile 

for the residential sector is presented in Table 3-2. Segment specific market profiles are 

presented in the appendix to this volume. 

Figure 3-2 shows the distribution of electricity use by end use for all homes. Three main 

electricity end uses —appliances, space heating and cooling — account for 60% of total use. 

Appliances include refrigerators, freezers, stoves, clothes washers, clothes dryers, dishwashers, 

and microwaves. The remainder of the energy falls into the electronics, lighting, water heating 

and the miscellaneous category – which is comprised of furnace fans, pool pumps, and other 

“plug” loads (all other usage not covered by those listed in Table 3-2 such as hair dryers, power 

tools, coffee makers, etc).

Figure 3-2 Residential Electricity by End Use (2011), All Homes 

Cooling

20%

Space Heating

20%

Water Heating

7%

Interior 

Lighting

8%

Exterior Lighting

2%

Appliances

20%

Electronics

9%

Miscellaneous

14%
Market Characterization and Market Profiles

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 3-3

Table 3-2 Average Electric Market Profile for the Residential Sector, 2011 

Figure 3-3 and Table 3-3 present the electricity intensities by end use and housing type.

UEC Intensity Usage

(kWh) (kWh/HH) (GWh)

Cooling Central AC 88.9% 2,736 2,434 2,518

Cooling Room AC 4.8% 1,712 83 86

Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 2.9% 2,897 83 86

Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.9% 2,027 17 18

Space Heating Electric Resistance 2.0% 6,441 129 133

Space Heating Electric Furnace 32.6% 6,763 2,208 2,284

Space Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 2.9% 5,628 166 171

Space Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.9% 1,993 19 19

Water Heating Water Heater <= 55 gal 26.3% 2,512 661 684

Water Heating Water Heater > 55 gal 8.6% 2,678 231 239

Interior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 945 945 978

Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent 60.6% 104 63 65

Interior Lighting Specialty 31.0% 236 73 76

Exterior Lighting Screw-in 84.9% 268 227 235

Appliances Refrigerator 100.0% 725 725 750

Appliances Second Refrigerator 36.3% 844 306 317

Appliances Freezer 36.9% 576 213 220

Appliances Clothes Washer 90.0% 96 86 89

Appliances Clothes Dryer 77.4% 704 544 563

Appliances Dishwasher 80.6% 401 323 334

Appliances Stove 68.0% 434 295 305

Appliances Microwave 96.9% 121 117 121

Electronics Personal Computers 64.0% 279 178 185

Electronics Monitor 64.0% 55 35 37

Electronics Laptops 71.5% 120 86 89

Electronics TVs 284.7% 233 664 687

Electronics Printer/Fax/Copier 82.5% 42 35 36

Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVR 82.8% 141 117 121

Electronics Devices and Gadgets 53.4% 105 56 58

Miscellaneous Air Purifier/Cleaner 12.4% 1,282 159 164

Miscellaneous Dehumidifier 20.0% 1,533 307 318

Miscellaneous Pool Pump 5.5% 1,575 87 90

Miscellaneous Pool Heater 2.2% 5,230 114 118

Miscellaneous Hot Tub / Spa 6.6% 998 65 68

Miscellaneous Furnace Fan 89.3% 373 332 344

Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 744 744 770

 12,929 13,375

 

Total

End Use Technology Saturation
Market Characterization and Market Profiles

3-4 www.enernoc.com

Figure 3-3 Residential Electricity Intensity by End Use and Segment (kWh/ household, 2011) 

Table 3-3 Residential Electricity Use by End Use and Segment (kWh/ HH/ year, 2011) 

End Use Single Family Multi Family Total

Cooling 3,060 1,402 2,611

Space Heating 2,985 1,259 2,518

Water Heating 871 950 892

Interior Lighting 1,317 448 1,081

Exterior Lighting 311 0 227

Appliances 2,801 2,094 2,609

Electronics 1,359 940 1,246

Misc. 2,152 644 1,744

Total 14,856 7,737 12,929

Commercial Sector

The total electric energy consumed by commercial customers in Ameren’s service area in 2011 

was 14,231 GWh. The results of the saturation survey and information from Ameren’s forecast 

were used to allocate this energy usage to building types and to develop estimates of energy 

intensity (annual kWh/square foot). Using the electricity use and intensity estimates, we infer 

floor space which is the unit of analysis in LoadMAP for the commercial sector. The values are

shown in Table 3-4 . These are the commercial-sector control totals to which all energy usage is 

calibrated in the base year of the study. Figure 3-4 shows the size of each of the building-types 

as a percentage of total commercial electricity use.

 -

 2,000

 4,000

 6,000

 8,000

 10,000

 12,000

 14,000

 16,000

Single Family Multi Family

Intensity

(kWh/HH)

Cooling

Heating

Water Heating

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Appliances

Electronics

Miscellaneous
Market Characterization and Market Profiles

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 3-5

Table 3-4 Commercial Electricity Use by End Use and Segment (2011) 

Segment Electricity Use

(GWh)

Intensity 

(kWh/SqFt)

Floor Space

(million SqFt)

Office 3,370 21.6 156.1

Restaurant 1,019 37.2 27.4

Retail 1,992 11.2 178.4

Grocery 707 61.1 11.6

Education 1,985 8.0 248.1

Health 1,608 15.2 105.9

Lodging 598 11.5 51.9

Warehouse 987 6.3 156.5

Miscellaneous 1,963 9.7 201.9

All 14,231 12.5 1,137.8

Figure 3-4 Commercial Market Segmentation by Building Type – Percentage of Electricity Use 

Composite Electric Profile 

Table 3-5 shows the average market profile for electricity of the commercial sector as a whole, 

representing a composite of all the building types. Market profiles for each building type are 

presented in the appendix to this volume. 

Office

24%

Restaurant

7%

Retail

14%

Grocery

5%

Education

14%

Health

11%

Lodging

4%

Warehouse

7%

Miscellaneous

14%
Market Characterization and Market Profiles

3-6 www.enernoc.com

Table 3-5 Average Electric Market Profile for the Commercial Sector, 2011 

Commercial Electricity Consumption 

Figure 3-5 shows the distribution of electricity consumption by end use for all commercial 

building types. Electric usage is dominated by lighting, with interior and exterior uses accounting 

for one third of consumption. After lighting, the largest end uses are ventilation and cooling,

which account for a quarter of total use. Miscellaneous uses, which include uses not elsewhere 

covered in the table above, include medical equipment, water coolers, power tools, and other 

plug loads.

EUI Intensity Usage

(kWh) (kWh/Sq

ft) (GWh)

Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 5.8% 2.63 0.15 174

Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 7.1% 4.20 0.30 341

Cooling Roof top AC 27.1% 3.12 0.85 964

Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 1.3% 3.21 0.04 49

Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.4% 2.05 0.01 9

Cooling PTAC 0.5% 3.17 0.02 19

Cooling PTHP 4.8% 3.17 0.15 173

Heating Electric Furnace 4.6% 6.18 0.29 327

Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 1.3% 6.20 0.08 95

Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.4% 3.32 0.01 14

Heating Electric Room Heat 3.4% 6.99 0.24 270

Heating PTHP 4.8% 2.99 0.14 163

Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.70 1.70 1,935

Water Heating Water Heating 28.0% 0.92 0.26 293

Interior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 0.76 0.76 861

Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.30 0.30 339

Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent 100.0% 2.33 2.33 2,647

Exterior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 0.13 0.13 145

Exterior Lighting HID 100.0% 0.37 0.37 421

Exterior Lighting Linear Fluorescent 100.0% 0.13 0.13 146

Refrigeration Walk-in Refrigerator 14.7% 1.96 0.29 327

Refrigeration Reach-in Refrigerator 19.1% 0.12 0.02 27

Refrigeration Glass Door Display 21.0% 1.21 0.25 290

Refrigeration Open Display Case 11.9% 1.41 0.17 192

Refrigeration Icemaker 32.8% 0.41 0.14 154

Refrigeration Vending Machine 18.6% 0.40 0.07 84

Food Preparation Oven 16.0% 0.34 0.05 62

Food Preparation Fryer 4.3% 0.51 0.02 25

Food Preparation Dishwasher 19.8% 0.72 0.14 162

Food Preparation Hot Food Container 8.8% 0.11 0.01 11

Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.33 0.33 371

Office Equipment Laptop 98.2% 0.06 0.06 70

Office Equipment Server 88.4% 0.28 0.25 285

Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.09 0.09 103

Office Equipment Printer/Copier/Fax 100.0% 0.11 0.11 125

Office Equipment POS Terminal 63.6% 0.05 0.03 38

Misc Non-HVAC Motors 3.0% 0.51 0.01 17

Misc Pool Pump 4.6% 0.01 0.00 1

Misc Pool Heater 1.4% 0.03 0.00 0

Misc Clothes Washer 15.1% 0.01 0.00 1

Misc Clothes Dryer 11.1% 0.01 0.00 1

Misc Misc 100.0% 2.20 2.20 2,498

Total 12.51 14,231

g y

End Use Technology Saturation
Market Characterization and Market Profiles

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 3-7

Figure 3-5 Commercial Electricity Consumption by End Use (2011), All Building Types 

Figure 3-6 shows the electricity intensity by end use and building type in terms of kWh per 

square foot of building floor space. The grocery sector is the most energy intensive as a result of 

high refrigeration loads. Restaurants are second as a result of high refrigeration and electric food 

preparation loads. Offices are third with an intensity just over 20 kWh/sq.ft. per year in 2011.

Figure 3-6 Commercial Electricity Intensity by End Use and Segment (kWh/ SqFt, 2011) 

Cooling

12%

Heating

6%

Ventilation

14%

Water Heating

Interior Lighting 2%

27%

Exterior 

Lighting

5%

Refrigeration

7%

Food 

Preparation

2%

Office 

Equipment

7%

Miscellaneous

18%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Intensity 

(kWh/Sq Ft)

Cooling

Heating

Ventilation

Water Heating

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Refrigeration

Food Preparation

Office Equipment

Miscellaneous
Market Characterization and Market Profiles

3-8 www.enernoc.com

Figure 3-7 and Table 3-6 present the electricity usage in GWh by end use and building type. 

While offices are third highest in terms of electric intensity, they account for the highest share of 

electricity use in Ameren’s commercial sector. As far as end uses, lighting is a major use across 

all buildings. Office equipment is concentrated in offices.

Figure 3-7 Commercial Electricity Usage by End Use Segment (GWh, 2011) 

Table 3-6 Commercial Electricity Consumption by End Use (GWh, 2011) 

End use Office RestaurantRetail Grocery Education Health Lodging Warehouse

Miscellaneous Total

Cooling 514 95 221 50 212 272 90 109 166 1,730

Heating 145 9 56 6 152 172 64 163 103 870

Ventilation 470 120 301 51 258 291 77 112 255 1,935

Water Heating 46 42 39 8 44 35 18 10 52 293

Interior Lighting 737 196 696 107 662 355 195 278 620 3,847

Exterior Lighting 121 56 110 14 101 34 26 52 197 712

Refrigeration 26 261 128 374 87 51 35 49 61 1,073

Food Preparation 16 127 23 11 28 39 8 1 9 261

Office Equipment 568 18 87 5 133 59 9 36 75 991

Misc 727 93 329 82 308 300 77 176 426 2,519

Total 3,370 1,019 1,992 707 1,985 1,608 598 987 1,963 14,231

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Annual 

Energy 

Use 

(GWh)

Cooling

Heating

Ventilation

Water Heating

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Refrigeration

Food Preparation

Office Equipment

Miscellaneous
Market Characterization and Market Profiles

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 3-9

Industrial Sector

The total electricity used in 2011 by Ameren’s industrial customers who have not opted out was 

3,137 GWh. Because this sector is relatively small and is heterogeneous with respect to industry type, 

the sector was treated as a whole in the analysis. We used the customer surveys and information 

from forecasting to disaggregate total electricity use into the major end uses. Table 3-7 shows the 

composite market profile for the industrial sector. 

Table 3-7 Average Electric Market Profile for the Industrial Sector, 2011 

EUI Intensity Usage

(kWh) (kWh/Empl) (GWh)

Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 8.0% 1,310 105 16

Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 3.0% 2,047 61 9

Cooling Roof top AC 21.0% 2,105 442 68

Cooling Air Source Heat Pump 2.0% 2,105 42 6

Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 1,404 - -

Cooling PTAC 0.3% 2,016 6 1

Cooling PTHP 2.7% 2,016 54 8

Heating Electric Furnace 2.0% 7,976 160 24

Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 2.0% 8,008 160 25

Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 5,341 - -

Heating Electric Room Heat 1.0% 7,596 76 12

Heating PTHP 2.7% 3,038 82 13

Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 667 667 102

Interior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 128 128 20

Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 207 207 32

Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent 100.0% 1,020 1,020 156

Exterior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 91 91 14

Exterior Lighting HID 100.0% 28 28 4

Exterior Lighting Linear Fluorescent 100.0% 136 136 21

Motors Pumps 100.0% 1,928 1,928 295

Motors Fans & Blowers 100.0% 1,509 1,509 231

Motors Compressed Air 100.0% 1,205 1,205 185

Motors Matl Handling 100.0% 1,659 1,659 254

Motors Matl Processing 100.0% 3,781 3,781 579

Motors Other Motors 100.0% 843 843 129

Process Process Heating 100.0% 2,970 2,970 455

Process Process Cooling and Refrig 100.0% 1,454 1,454 223

Process Electro-Chemical Processes 100.0% 761 761 117

Process Other Process 100.0% 269 269 41

Misc Misc 100.0% 639 639 98

Total 20,482 3,137

Average Market Profiles

End Use Technology Saturation
Market Characterization and Market Profiles

3-10 www.enernoc.com

Figure 3-8 shows the distribution of electricity energy consumption by end use for all industrial 

customers. Motors are clearly the largest overall end use for the industrial sector, accounting for 

53% of energy use. Note that this end use includes a wide range of industrial equipment, such 

as air compressors and refrigeration compressors, pumps, conveyor motors, and fans. The 

process end use accounts for 27% of energy use, which includes heating, cooling, refrigeration, 

and electro-chemical processes. Lighting is the next highest, followed by cooling, ventilation, 

miscellaneous, and space heating. 

Figure 3-8 Industrial Electricity Use by End Use (2011), All Industries 

Cooling

4%

Heating

2%

Ventilation

3%

Interior Lighting

7%

Exterior Lighting

1%

Motors

53%

Process

27%

Misc

3%
EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 4-1

CHAPTER 4

BASELINE PROJECTION

Prior to developing estimates of energy-efficiency potential, a baseline end-use projection was 

developed to quantify what the consumption is likely to be in the future in absence of new 

efficiency programs. The baseline projection incorporates assumptions about:

• Economic growth

• Appliance/equipment standards and building codes already mandated (see Chapter 2)

• Future electricity prices and other drivers of consumption

• Trends in fuel shares and appliance saturations and assumptions about miscellaneous 

electricity growth

• Naturally occurring energy efficiency, which reflects the manufacture of more efficient 

options in response to new appliance standards and purchases of high-efficiency appliances 

and equipment by early adopters outside of utility programs. 

The baseline projection is not Ameren’s official load forecast. Rather it was developed to serve as 

the metric against which energy efficiency potentials are measured. This chapter presents the 

baseline projection for each sector and end use. It also presents estimates of naturally occurring 

energy efficiency.

Residential Sector 

Table 4-1 and Figure 4-1 present the baseline projection for electricity at the end-use level for 

the residential sector as a whole. Overall, residential use increases slightly from 13,375 GWh in 

2011 to 14,343 GWh in 2030, an increase of 7.2%. This reflects the impact of the EISA lighting 

standard, additional appliance standards adopted in 2011, and modest customer growth. This 

table also shows the estimate of naturally occurring energy efficiency, which has the greatest 

impact in the early years of the projection due to early adoption of LED lamps. Naturallyoccurring efficiency is computed as the difference between a “codes & standards projection” 

(also shown in Table 4-1 and Figure 4-1) and the baseline projection.

Table 4-1 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh) 

End Use 2011 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 % Change

('11-'30)

Cooling 2,701 2,643 2,656 2,677 2,804 2,898 7%

Heating 2,605 2,628 2,643 2,664 2,774 2,857 10%

Water Heating 923 921 919 919 900 879 -5%

Int. Lighting 1,119 709 717 675 479 474 -58%

Ext. Lighting 235 152 155 146 92 92 -61%

Appliances 2,699 2,388 2,352 2,326 2,250 2,320 -14%

Electronics 1,289 1,363 1,407 1,457 1,714 1,857 44%

Miscellaneous 1,804 2,086 2,160 2,243 2,726 2,967 64%

Total 13,375 12,891 13,008 13,107 13,740 14,343 7.2%

Naturally occurring EE - 191 199 205 28 39 n/a

Codes & Stds Projection 13,375 13,082 13,207 13,312 13,768 14,382 7.5%
Baseline Projection

4-2 www.enernoc.com

Figure 4-1 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use 

Figure 4-2 presents the baseline projection of annual electricity use per household. Most 

noticeable is that lighting use decreases significantly throughout the time period as the lighting 

efficiency standards from EISA come into effect.

Figure 4-2 Residential Use per Household by End Use 

Table 4-2 shows the end-use forecast at the technology level for select years. Specific 

observations include:

1. The primary reason for the reduction in the baseline projection beginning in 2012 is the 

federal lighting standards. The standard phases general service incandescent lamps out of 

the market over a three-year period.

2. The baseline projection also incorporates the effects of naturally occurring efficiency, which 

reflects consumer purchases of more efficient options outside of utility programs, both early 

adopters and market transformation.

3. Appliance energy use decreases markedly, reflecting efficiency gains from standards.

 -

 2,000

 4,000

 6,000

 8,000

 10,000

 12,000

 14,000

 16,000

2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032

Annual 

Use 

(MWh)

Cooling

Heating

Water Heating

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Appliances

Electronics

Miscellaneous

Codes & Stds

projection

 -

 2,000

 4,000

 6,000

 8,000

 10,000

 12,000

 14,000

2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032

Annual 

Use 

per 

Household 

(kWh/ HH)

Cooling

Heating

Water Heating

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Appliances

Electronics

Miscellaneous
Baseline Projection

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 4-3

4. Growth in use in electronics is substantial and reflects an increase in the saturation of 

electronics and the trend toward higher-powered computers. 

5. Growth in miscellaneous use is also substantial. This end use has grown consistently in the 

past and we incorporate future growth assumptions that are consistent with the Annual 

Energy Outlook. 

Table 4-2 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use and Technology (GWh) 

End Use Technology 2011 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 % Change

('11-'30)

Cooling

Central AC 2,518 2,455 2,466 2,486 2,600 2,680 6.5%

Room AC 86 80 79 79 75 74 -13.5%

Air-Source Heat Pump 80 89 91 93 109 122 53.3%

Geothermal Heat Pump 18 19 19 19 21 22 19.6%

Heating

Furnace 2,284 2,301 2,312 2,330 2,415 2,472 8.2%

Electric Room Heat 133 128 127 126 120 117 -11.9%

Air-Source Heat Pump 168 180 183 187 217 244 45.3%

Geothermal Heat Pump 19 20 21 21 22 23 19.4%

Water 

Heating

Water Heater <= 55 gal 684 692 697 704 729 741 8.4%

Water Heater > 55 gal 239 228 222 216 171 138 -42.4%

Interior 

Lighting

Screw-in 978 585 596 559 356 353 -63.9%

Linear Fluorescent 65 67 67 68 72 74 13.6%

Specialty 76 57 54 49 52 48 -36.8%

Ext. Light Screw-in 235 152 155 146 92 92 -61.0%

Appliances

Clothes Washer 89 81 78 75 56 48 -46.7%

Clothes Dryer 563 521 517 514 513 525 -6.8%

Dishwasher 334 277 273 271 283 297 -11.0%

Refrigerator 750 611 586 566 467 470 -37.3%

Freezer 220 193 191 190 193 207 -5.9%

Second Refrigerator 317 251 245 241 224 235 -25.7%

Stove 305 328 334 339 374 395 29.3%

Microwave 121 127 128 130 138 142 17.7%

Electronics

Personal Computers 185 235 247 260 319 342 85.6%

Monitor 37 46 48 50 62 66 81.0%

Laptops 89 109 114 120 167 208 134.2%

Printer/Fax/Copier 36 34 34 34 36 36 1.2%

TVs 687 674 684 696 753 793 15.4%

Set-top Boxes/DVR 173 156 163 171 210 226 30.8%

Devices and Gadgets 83 110 117 125 167 184 122.4%

Miscellaneous

Pool Pump 90 99 102 104 121 132 47.3%

Pool Heater 118 125 127 129 145 157 32.7%

Hot Tub / Spa 68 75 77 79 90 98 44.2%

Furnace Fan 344 373 380 388 428 451 31.0%

Air Purifier/Cleaner 164 174 177 180 201 218 32.5%

Dehumidifier 318 294 291 289 283 290 -8.8%

Miscellaneous 703 946 1,007 1,074 1,458 1,623 130.9%

Total 13,375 12,891 13,008 13,107 13,740 14,343 7.2%
Baseline Projection

4-4 www.enernoc.com

Commercial Sector

Electricity use in the commercial sector grows modestly during the overall forecast horizon, 

starting at 14,231 GWh in 2011, and increasing to 15,867 in 2030. Table 4-3 and Figure 4-3

present the baseline projection at the end-use level for the commercial sector as a whole. Usage 

is declining in the early years of the forecast, due largely to the phasing in of codes and 

standards such as the EISA 2007 lighting standards and EPACT 2005 refrigeration standards, as 

well as naturally occurring energy efficiency. Also shown is the estimate of savings from naturally 

occurring energy efficiency, developed using a codes and standards projection. These savings 

are 422 GWh in 2030, or 2.6% of the codes and standards projection that was used to develop 

the estimates. Most of these savings come from early adoption of lighting upgrades.

Table 4-3 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh) 

End Use 2011 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 % Change

('11-'30)

Cooling 1,730 1,745 1,735 1,734 1,666 1,653 -4.4%

Heating 870 971 979 990 1,017 1,029 18.2%

Ventilation 1,935 1,566 1,537 1,523 1,542 1,566 -19.1%

Water Heating 293 328 331 335 345 351 19.6%

Interior Lighting 3,847 3,266 3,220 3,195 3,016 2,988 -22.3%

Ext. Lighting 712 605 594 587 555 574 -19.5%

Refrigeration 1,073 921 908 900 901 960 -10.5%

Food Prep 261 286 289 293 325 354 35.9%

Office Equip 991 1,166 1,192 1,222 1,387 1,468 48.1%

Miscellaneous 2,519 3,295 3,414 3,540 4,351 4,924 95.5%

Total 14,231 14,149 14,199 14,320 15,105 15,867 11.5%

Naturally occurring EE - 119 139 146 350 422 n/a

Codes & Stds Projection 14,231 14,268 14,338 14,466 15,455 16,289 14.5%

Figure 4-3 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use 

 -

 2,000

 4,000

 6,000

 8,000

 10,000

 12,000

 14,000

 16,000

 18,000

Annual 

Use 

(GWh)

Cooling

Heating

Ventilation

Water Heating

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Refrigeration

Food Preparation

Office Equipment

Miscellaneous

Codes & Stds Projection
Baseline Projection

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 4-5

Table 4-4 presents the commercial sector electricity forecast by technology for select years. 

Interior screw-in lighting and refrigeration decrease significantly over the forecast period as a 

result of efficiency standards.

Table 4-4 Commercial Baseline Forecast by End Use and Technology (GWh) 

End Use Technology 2011 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

% 

Change

('11-'30)

Cooling

Air-Cooled Chiller 174 195 197 199 204 204 17.3%

Water-Cooled Chiller 341 324 321 319 289 275 -19.6%

Roof top AC 964 972 965 962 923 924 -4.1%

Geothermal Heat Pump 9 8 8 8 7 7 -17.6%

Air Source Heat Pump 49 46 45 45 41 41 -17.1%

PTAC 19 22 22 22 23 23 21.7%

PTHP 173 178 178 178 177 179 3.3%

Heating

Geothermal Heat Pump 14 15 15 15 14 14 -0.4%

Electric Room Heat 270 309 312 317 328 334 23.5%

Electric Furnace 327 368 371 375 385 388 18.5%

Air Source Heat Pump 95 97 96 96 96 96 1.3%

PTHP 163 183 185 187 194 197 20.4%

Ventilation Ventilation 1,935 1,566 1,537 1,523 1,542 1,566 -19.1%

Water Heating Water Heating 293 328 331 335 345 351 19.6%

Interior Lighting

Screw-in 861 547 544 544 387 330 -61.7%

High-Bay Fixtures 339 271 267 263 258 268 -20.8%

Linear Fluorescent 2,647 2,449 2,409 2,388 2,371 2,390 -9.7%

Exterior Lighting

Screw-in 145 80 80 80 57 49 -66.4%

HID 421 363 357 354 348 368 -12.6%

Linear Fluorescent 146 161 157 154 150 157 7.5%

Refrigeration

Walk-in Refrigerator 327 241 232 226 218 231 -29.4%

Reach-in Refrigerator 27 21 21 20 22 26 -3.9%

Glass Door Display 290 231 228 226 216 229 -21.0%

Open Display Case 192 189 189 190 194 204 6.6%

Icemaker 154 173 176 179 199 216 40.7%

Vending Machine 84 65 61 58 51 54 -35.7%

Food Preparation

Oven 62 72 74 75 86 95 51.3%

Fryer 25 32 33 34 42 49 97.4%

Dishwasher 162 170 171 172 184 197 21.4%

Hot Food Container 11 12 12 12 13 14 24.5%

Office Equipment

Desktop Computer 371 431 439 449 502 526 41.6%

Laptop 70 85 87 90 108 117 66.7%

Server 285 333 343 353 413 445 56.2%

Monitor 103 125 128 131 146 153 49.1%

Printer/Copier/Fax 125 152 155 158 175 181 45.4%

POS Terminal 38 39 40 40 44 46 22.7%

Miscellaneous

Non-HVAC Motors 17 20 21 21 23 24 40.2%

Pool Pump 1 1 1 1 1 1 41.7%

Pool Heater 0 1 1 1 1 1 40.7%

Miscellaneous 2,498 3,271 3,389 3,515 4,323 4,895 96.0%

Clothes Washer 1 1 1 2 2 2 34.8%

Clothes Dryer 1 2 2 2 2 2 35.3%

Total 14,231 14,149 14,199 14,320 15,105 15,867 11.5%
Baseline Projection

4-6 www.enernoc.com

Industrial Sector

Table 4-5 and Figure 4-5 present the electricity baseline projection at the end-use level for the 

industrial sector. Overall, industrial annual electricity use increases from 3,137 GWh in 2011 to 

3,511 GWh in 2030. This comprises an overall increase of 11.9%, or 0.4% per year, which is 

colored by a slow but recovering economy. These exhibits also show estimates of naturally 

occurring efficiency, which as quite small, developed using a codes and standards projection.

Table 4-5 Industrial Consumption by End Use (GWh) 

End Use 2011 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 % Change

('11-'30)

Cooling 109 104 103 103 98 100 -8.4%

Heating 73 76 77 77 79 81 11.2%

Ventilation 102 74 71 69 67 69 -32.9%

Int. Lighting 207 163 162 162 165 170 -17.9%

Ext. Lighting 39 31 30 30 31 31 -19.4%

Motors 1,673 1,761 1,782 1,797 1,849 1,902 13.7%

Process 835 879 890 897 923 950 13.7%

Miscellaneous 98 121 126 131 171 208 111.9%

Total 3,137 3,209 3,242 3,267 3,383 3,511 11.9%

Naturally occurring EE - 2 2 3 2 2 n/a

Codes & Stds Projection 3,137 3,211 3,245 3,270 3,385 3,512 12.0%

Figure 4-4 Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use 

 -

 500

 1,000

 1,500

 2,000

 2,500

 3,000

 3,500

 4,000

Annual 

Use 

(GWh)

Cooling

Heating

Ventilation

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Motors

Process

Miscellaneous
Baseline Projection

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 4-7

Baseline Projection Summary

Table 4-6 and Figure 4-5 provide a summary of the baseline projection for electricity by sector 

for the entire Ameren service territory. Overall, the forecast shows only a slight incline in 

electricity use, driven primarily by oncoming codes and standards and a challenging 

macroeconomic environment.

Table 4-6 also shows the amount of naturally occurring energy efficiency savings. Across all 

sectors in 2030, savings are 460 GWh, or 1.4% of the codes and standards projection, what was 

used to develop the savings estimates.

Table 4-6 Baseline Projection Summary (GWh) 

Sector 2011 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 % Change

Residential 13,375 12,891 13,008 13,107 13,740 14,343 7.2%

Commercial 14,231 14,149 14,199 14,320 15,105 15,867 11.5%

Industrial 3,137 3,209 3,242 3,267 3,383 3,511 11.9%

Total 30,743 30,249 30,449 30,694 32,228 33,721 9.7%

Naturally occurring EE - 313 340 354 380 462 n/a

Codes & Stds Projection 30,743 30,562 30,789 31,048 32,608 34,183 11.2%

Figure 4-5 Baseline Projection Summary (GWh) 

 -

 5,000

 10,000

 15,000

 20,000

 25,000

 30,000

 35,000

 40,000

Energy Consumption (GWh)

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5-1

CHAPTER 5

MEASURE-LEVEL ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL 

This chapter presents the measure-level energy-efficiency potential for Ameren Missouri. Results 

for the next program cycle, 2016-2018, are shown, together with longer term potential for 2025 

and 2030. Year-by-year savings for annual energy and peak demand are available in the 

LoadMAP model, which was provided to Ameren at the conclusion of the study. 

Summary 

Table 5-1 and Figure 5-1 summarize the energy-efficiency savings for all measures at the 

different levels of potential relative to the baseline projection. Naturally occurring efficiency is 

included in the baseline projection, so all estimates shown below represent net savings. Figure 5-

2 displays the electric energy-efficiency forecasts.

• Technical potential, which reflects the adoption of all energy efficiency measures 

regardless of cost-effectiveness, is a theoretical upper bound on savings. First-year net 

savings are 1,242 GWh, or 4.1% of the baseline projection. Cumulative net savings in 2018 

are 2,728 GWh, or 8.9% of the baseline. By 2030, cumulative savings reach 9,858 GWh, or 

29.2% of the baseline projection. 

• Economic potential reflects the savings when the most efficient cost-effective measures 

are taken by all customers. The first-year savings in 2016 are 858 GWh, or 2.8% of the 

baseline projection. By 2018, cumulative net savings reach 1,923 GWh, or 6.3% of the 

baseline. By 2030, cumulative savings reach 7,718 GWh, or 22.9% of the baseline projection.

• Maximum achievable potential (MAP) reflects an ideal regulatory and program 

implementation scenario. In 2016, savings for this case are 510 GWh, or 1.7% of the 

baseline and by 2018 cumulative net savings reach 1,179 GWh, or 3.8% of the baseline 

projection. By 2030, cumulative MAP savings reach 5,377 GWh, or 15.9% of the baseline 

projection. This results in average annual savings of 0.75% of the baseline each year.

• Realistic Achievable Potential reflects what is most realistically expected to happen. In 

2016, net realistic achievable savings are 339 GWh, or 1.1% of the baseline projection. By 

2018, RAP reaches 806 GWh, or 2.6% of the baseline. By 2030, RAP reaches 3,958 GWh, or 

11.7% of the baseline projection. This results in average annual savings of 0.83%.

Table 5-1 Summary of Measure-Level Efficiency Potential 

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Baseline projection (GWh) 30,249 30,449 30,694 32,228 33,721

Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Realistic Achievable Potential 339 561 806 2,697 3,958

Maximum Achievable Potential 510 833 1,179 3,753 5,377

Economic Potential 858 1,374 1,923 5,674 7,718

Technical Potential 1,242 1,955 2,728 7,563 9,858

Cumulative Net Savings as a % of Baseline

Realistic Achievable Potential 1.1% 1.8% 2.6% 8.4% 11.7%

Maximum Achievable Potential 1.7% 2.7% 3.8% 11.6% 15.9%

Economic Potential 2.8% 4.5% 6.3% 17.6% 22.9%

Technical Potential 4.1% 6.4% 8.9% 23.5% 29.2%
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

5-2 www.enernoc.com

Figure 5-1 Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential 

Figure 5-2 Summary of the Baseline Projection and Measure-level EE Forecasts (GWh) 

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Energy Savings (% of Baseline Forecast)

Realistic Achievable Potential

Maximum Achievable Potential

Economic Potential

Technical Potential

 -

 5,000

 10,000

 15,000

 20,000

 25,000

 30,000

 35,000

 40,000

Energy Consumption (1,000 MWh)

Baseline Forecast

Realistic Achievable Potential

Maximum Achievable Potential

Economic Potential

Technical Potential
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5-3

Overview of Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential by Sector

Table 5-2 and Figure 5-3 summarize the range of electric achievable potential by sector. The 

commercial sector accounts for the largest portion of the savings, followed by residential then 

industrial.

Table 5-2 Measure-level Achievable Potential by Sector (GWh) 

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

RAP Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Residential 95 162 251 843 1,290

Commercial 231 376 523 1,736 2,495

Industrial 13 23 32 118 173

Total 339 561 806 2,697 3,958

MAP Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Residential 137 230 354 1,158 1,714

Commercial 354 570 779 2,435 3,430

Industrial 19 33 45 160 232

Total 510 833 1,179 3,753 5,377

Figure 5-3 Measure-level Achievable Potential by Sector (GWh) 

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

RAP Savings (GWh)

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

MAP Savings (GWh)

Residential

Commercial

Industrial
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

5-4 www.enernoc.com

Residential Measure-level Potential 

Table 5-3 presents estimates for the four types of measure-level potential for the residential

sector. Figure 5-4 depicts these potential energy savings estimates graphically. Net cumulative 

savings for achievable potential in 2018 are 251 GWh for RAP and 354 GWh for MAP, or 1.9% to 

2.7% of the baseline projection, respectively. By 2030, the RAP and MAP savings are 1,290 GWh 

and 1,714 GWh, respectively. 

Table 5-3 Measure-level EE Potential for the Residential Sector 

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Baseline projection (GWh) 12,891 13,008 13,107 13,740 14,343

Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Realistic Achievable Potential 95 162 251 843 1,290

Maximum Achievable Potential 137 230 354 1,158 1,714

Economic Potential 282 459 701 2,111 2,902

Technical Potential 440 752 1,136 3,108 4,079

Cumulative Net Savings as a % of Baseline

Realistic Achievable Potential 0.7% 1.2% 1.9% 6.1% 9.0%

Maximum Achievable Potential 1.1% 1.8% 2.7% 8.4% 12.0%

Economic Potential 2.2% 3.5% 5.3% 15.4% 20.2%

Technical Potential 3.4% 5.8% 8.7% 22.6% 28.4%

Figure 5-4 Residential Measure-level Energy Efficiency Savings 

Residential Measure-level Potential by Market Segment

Single-family homes in Ameren account for the majority of this sector’s total sales in the base 

year and throughout the forecast. Similarly, single-family homes account for the largest share of 

potential savings by segment, as displayed in Table 5-4 for 2018. 

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Energy Savings (% of Baseline)

Realistic Achievable Potential

Maximum Achievable Potential

Economic Potential

Technical Potential
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5-5

Table 5-4 Residential Measure-level Potential by Market Segment, 2018 

Single Family Multi Family

Baseline projection (GWh) 10,958 2,149

Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Realistic Achievable Potential 212 39

Maximum Achievable Potential 304 50

Economic Potential 586 115

Technical Potential 942 194

Cumulative Net Savings as a % of Baseline

Realistic Achievable Potential 1.9% 1.8%

Maximum Achievable Potential 2.8% 2.3%

Economic Potential 5.3% 5.3%

Technical Potential 8.6% 9.0%

Residential Top 20 Measures

Table 5-5 identifies the top 20 residential measures in 2018 for RAP which account for 88% of 

cumulative RAP. The top measure is screw-in LED lamps, which account for 25% of the savings 

in 2018. These lamps are cost-effective when compared to the infrared halogen lamp that meets 

the EISA lighting standard starting in 2014. Savings from this measure in RAP are calculated 

relative to a market baseline that reflects purchases of the infrared halogen lamps, as well as 

substantial market share for CFLs and LEDs.

Table 5-5 Residential Top Measures in RAP in 2018 

Rank Measure End use 2018 Savings % of 

Total

1 Interior Lighting Screw-in – LED lamps Int. Light 63.9 25%

2 Cooling Central AC – SEER 15 Cooling 18.7 7%

3 Exterior Lighting Screw-in – LED lamps Ext. Light 17.6 7%

4 Central AC - Maintenance and Tune-Up Cooling 13.5 5%

5 Refrigerator - Remove Second Unit Appliances 13.2 5%

6 Windows - Install Reflective Film Heat & Cool 12.2 5%

7 Ducting - Repair and Sealing Heat & Cool 10.9 4%

8 Water Heater - Low-Flow Showerheads Water heat 9.0 4%

9 Windows - High Efficiency/ENERGY STAR Heat & Cool 8.9 4%

10 Freezer - Removal Appliances 6.9 3%

11 Electronics Personal Computers Electronics 6.9 3%

12 Pool/Spa cover Misc. 5.6 2%

13 Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVR Electronics 5.5 2%

14 Thermostat - Clock/Programmable Heat & Cool 5.1 2%

15 Insulation - Infiltration Control Heat & Cool 4.6 2%

16 Miscellaneous Air Purifier/Cleaner Misc. 4.1 2%

17 Water Heater - Thermostat Setback Water heat 4.0 2%

18 Room AC - Removal Cooling 3.9 2%

19 Central AC - Early Replacement Cooling 3.5 1%

20 Insulation – Ducting Heat & Cool 3.4 1%

 Total 221.4 88%
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

5-6 www.enernoc.com

Figure 5-5 focuses on the RAP by end use in 2018 and 2025. 

• Cooling measures, including CAC replacement, CAC maintenance, duct repair and sealing, 

and various thermal shell measures, account for the largest share of savings in the program 

cycle and in the long term. 

• Lighting equipment replacement measures account for the second-highest portion of the 

savings in the near term as a result of the efficiency gap between LED lamps and advanced 

incandescent lamps that meet the EISA 2007 standard. In the longer term (2025), electronics 

and space heating measures contribute significantly to the savings. 

• Electronics measures, including high-efficiency PCs and set-top boxes, contribute significant 

savings to RAP in the long term.

• Space heating measures, consisting mostly of thermal-shell measures, contribute 12% to net 

cumulative savings in 2025.

Figure 5-5 Residential Measure-level RAP by End Use in 2018 and 2025 

Cooling 

39%

Heating 

Water Heating 12%

7%

Interior 

Lighting 

10%

Exterior Lighting 

3%

Appliances 

8%

Electronics 

14%

Miscellaneous 

7%

Cooling 

31%

Heating 

9%

Water Heating 

6%

Interior Lighting 

26%

Exterior Lighting 

7%

Appliances 

8%

Electronics 

7%

Miscellaneous 

6%
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5-7

Residential Measure-level Potential by End Use

Table 5-6 provides estimates of savings for each end use and type of potential. 

Table 5-6 Residential Measure-level Savings by End Use and Potential Type (GWh) 

End Use Case 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Cooling

RAP 34 53 78 333 548

MAP 49 75 109 451 721

Economic Potential 103 155 222 821 1,217

Technical Potential 154 246 354 1,119 1,502

Heating

RAP 10 15 21 105 165

MAP 15 22 32 151 233

Economic Potential 31 46 66 287 417

Technical Potential 47 71 104 387 561

Water Heating

RAP 5 9 16 57 103

MAP 8 14 24 81 139

Economic Potential 17 30 51 158 244

Technical Potential 42 83 130 392 561

Interior Lighting

RAP 23 42 66 87 122

MAP 32 59 93 113 148

Economic Potential 62 109 171 182 199

Technical Potential 66 117 181 213 227

Exterior Lighting

RAP 6 11 18 22 29

MAP 9 16 25 29 34

Economic Potential 15 27 42 42 42

Technical Potential 17 30 46 48 50

Appliances

RAP 6 12 21 63 81

MAP 8 15 26 80 100

Economic Potential 15 28 50 141 169

Technical Potential 40 75 118 343 453

Electronics

RAP 6 11 18 118 156

MAP 9 17 26 173 224

Economic Potential 18 35 54 310 383

Technical Potential 39 74 123 347 384

Miscellaneous

RAP 6 9 14 58 87

MAP 8 12 19 79 115

Economic Potential 20 29 45 171 231

Technical Potential 35 57 79 260 341

Total

RAP 95 162 251 843 1,290

MAP 137 230 354 1,158 1,714

Economic Potential 282 459 701 2,111 2,902

Technical Potential 440 752 1,136 3,108 4,079
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

5-8 www.enernoc.com

Commercial Measure-level Potential

Net cumulative savings for measure-level achievable potential in the commercial sector in 2018 

are 523 GWh for RAP and 779 for MAP, or 3.7% to 5.4% of the baseline projection, respectively. 

These savings are twice as high as for the residential sector. Table 5-7 presents estimates for 

the four types of potential for the residential electricity sector. Figure 5-6 depicts these potential 

energy savings estimates graphically.

Table 5-7 Measure-level EE Potential for the Commercial Sector 

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Baseline projection (GWh) 14,149 14,199 14,320 15,105 15,867

Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Realistic Achievable Potential 231 376 523 1,736 2,495

Maximum Achievable Potential 354 570 779 2,435 3,430

Economic Potential 547 864 1,155 3,342 4,507

Technical Potential 722 1,093 1,448 4,005 5,196

Cumulative Net Savings as a % of Baseline

Realistic Achievable Potential 1.6% 2.6% 3.7% 11.5% 15.7%

Maximum Achievable Potential 2.5% 4.0% 5.4% 16.1% 21.6%

Economic Potential 3.9% 6.1% 8.1% 22.1% 28.4%

Technical Potential 5.1% 7.7% 10.1% 26.5% 32.7%

Figure 5-6 Commercial Measure-level Energy Efficiency Savings 

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Energy Savings (% of Baseline Forecast)

Realistic Achievable Potential

Maximum Achievable Potential

Economic Potential

Technical Potential
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5-9

Commercial Measure-level Potential by Market Segment

Table 5-8 shows measure-level achievable potential estimates by building type in 2018. Offices 

and retail have the largest share of MAP and RAP savings throughout the study horizon. 

Table 5-8 Commercial Measure-level Potential by Market Segment, 2018 

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

MAP (GWh)

Office 75 123 176 595 813

Restaurant 25 39 51 153 220

Retail 52 83 112 350 502

Grocery 28 37 47 134 187

Education 45 72 99 303 438

Health 42 65 88 271 376

Lodging 16 30 41 83 108

Warehouse 22 35 48 178 258

Miscellaneous 50 86 117 367 528

Total 354 570 779 2,435 3,430

% of Total Savings – MAP

Office 21% 22% 23% 24% 24%

Restaurant 7% 7% 7% 6% 6%

Retail 15% 14% 14% 14% 15%

Grocery 8% 7% 6% 6% 5%

Education 13% 13% 13% 12% 13%

Health 12% 11% 11% 11% 11%

Lodging 5% 5% 5% 3% 3%

Warehouse 6% 6% 6% 7% 8%

Miscellaneous 14% 15% 15% 15% 15%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

RAP (GWh)

Office 49 81 117 421 588

Restaurant 16 25 34 109 160

Retail 34 55 75 250 366

Grocery 18 24 30 93 133

Education 30 48 67 214 318

Health 27 43 59 193 272

Lodging 11 20 29 65 83

Warehouse 14 23 32 126 187

Miscellaneous 33 57 79 267 389

Total 231 376 523 1,736 2,495

% of Total Savings - RAP

Office 21% 22% 22% 24% 24%

Restaurant 7% 7% 7% 6% 6%

Retail 15% 15% 14% 14% 15%

Grocery 8% 6% 6% 5% 5%

Education 13% 13% 13% 12% 13%

Health 12% 11% 11% 11% 11%

Lodging 5% 5% 5% 4% 3%

Warehouse 6% 6% 6% 7% 7%

Miscellaneous 14% 15% 15% 15% 16%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

5-10 www.enernoc.com

Commercial Top 20 Measures

Table 5-9 identifies the top 20 commercial-sector measures in 2018 for RAP. These measures 

account for 404 GWh in 2018 and 77.3% of total RAP. The top measure is screw-in LED lamps, 

which account for 26% of the savings in 2018. These lamps are cost-effective when compared to 

the infrared halogen lamp that meets the EISA lighting standard starting in 2014. Savings from 

this measure in RAP are calculated relative to a market baseline that reflects purchases of the 

infrared halogen lamps, as well as substantial market share for CFLs and LEDs. 

Table 5-9 Commercial Top 20 Measures in RAP in 2018 

Rank Measure End Use 2018 Savings % of 

Total

1 Interior Lighting - Screw-in – LED Int. Light 94 18.0%

2 Interior Lighting - Linear Fluorescent Int. Light 43 8.3%

3 Advanced New Construction Designs Int. Light, HVAC 36 6.8%

4 Office Equipment – Server Off. Eq. 27 5.1%

5 Interior Lighting - Daylighting Controls Int. Light 22 4.2%

6 Water Heating – High-efficiency system Water heat 19 3.6%

7 Energy Management System HVAC 19 3.5%

8 Exterior Lighting – HID Ext. Light 17 3.3%

9 Office Equipment - Desktop Computer Off. Eq. 16 3.1%

10 Interior Lighting - High-Bay Fixtures Int. Light 14 2.7%

11 Retrocommissioning – HVAC HVAC 14 2.7%

12 Exterior Lighting - Screw-in Ext. Light 14 2.6%

13 Ventilation - Variable Speed Control Ventilation 12 2.3%

14 Interior Lighting - Occupancy Sensors Int. Light 12 2.2%

15 Retrocommissioning – Lighting Int. Light 11 2.2%

16 Office Equipment - Printer/Copier/Fax Off. Eq. 7 1.4%

17 Commissioning – Lighting Int. Light 7 1.4%

18 Refrigerator – eCube Refrig. 7 1.3%

19 Ventilation - CO2 Controlled Ventilation 7 1.3%

20 Ventilation - Ventilation Ventilation 6 1.2%

Total 404 77.3%

Figure 5-7 focuses on RAP by end use in 2018 and 2025. 

• Interior lighting delivers the largest share of RAP savings throughout the study period. This 

results from lamp and system replacement, as well as lighting controls.

• Office equipment has the second largest share, resulting from high-efficiency servers, PCs, 

and printers, as well as monitor power maintenance. 
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5-11

Figure 5-7 Commercial Measure-level RAP Savings by End Use in 2018 and 2025 
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

5-12 www.enernoc.com

Commercial Measure-level Potential by End Use

Table 5-10 presents the commercial sector savings by end use and potential type. 

Table 5-10 Commercial Measure-level Potential by End Use and Potential Type (GWh) 

End Use Case 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Cooling

RAP 37 52 70 243 324

MAP 58 80 108 352 457

Economic Potential 88 121 160 483 604

Technical Potential 118 162 215 611 749

Heating

RAP 14 20 28 98 141

MAP 23 31 43 145 203

Economic Potential 35 49 65 207 278

Technical Potential 47 65 88 255 329

Ventilation

RAP 21 30 44 175 229

MAP 32 47 68 257 330

Economic Potential 53 76 108 378 465

Technical Potential 74 102 138 452 544

Water Heating

RAP 8 15 23 76 130

MAP 11 21 32 104 173

Economic Potential 17 31 47 144 230

Technical Potential 19 34 50 151 236

Interior Lighting

RAP 93 161 218 744 1,094

MAP 141 242 317 1,010 1,466

Economic Potential 213 354 445 1,314 1,825

Technical Potential 245 396 501 1,484 1,970

Exterior Lighting

RAP 17 32 44 136 208

MAP 25 48 65 182 278

Economic Potential 36 68 89 228 342

Technical Potential 42 75 99 251 360

Refrigeration

RAP 21 27 34 108 159

MAP 33 42 53 161 229

Economic Potential 54 68 84 236 320

Technical Potential 80 103 127 329 426

Food Preparation

RAP 1 2 4 12 17

MAP 2 4 6 18 26

Economic Potential 3 6 9 28 39

Technical Potential 3 6 9 28 39

Office Equipment

RAP 19 36 59 142 191

MAP 28 54 89 204 267

Economic Potential 48 90 148 320 401

Technical Potential 94 149 220 441 537

Miscellaneous

RAP 0 0 0 1 2

MAP 0 0 0 1 2

Economic Potential 0 0 0 2 3

Technical Potential 0 0 1 3 4

Total

RAP 231 376 523 1,736 2,495

MAP 354 570 779 2,435 3,430

Economic Potential 547 864 1,155 3,342 4,507

Technical Potential 722 1,093 1,448 4,005 5,196
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5-13

Industrial Measure-level Potential

In this study, Ameren’s opt-out customers have been excluded from the study. Therefore, the 

industrial sector is the small sector in the analysis in terms of the baseline projection and savings 

potential. Net cumulative savings for measure-level achievable potential in the industrial sector 

are 32 GWh for RAP and 45 GWh for MAP in 2018. Table 5-11 and Figure 5-8 present the savings 

for the various types of potential considered in this study.

Table 5-11 Measure-level EE Potential for the Industrial Sector 

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Baseline projection (GWh) 3,209 3,242 3,267 3,383 3,511

Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Realistic Achievable Potential 13 23 32 118 173

Maximum Achievable Potential 19 33 45 160 232

Economic Potential 29 50 67 221 309

Technical Potential 80 110 144 449 584

Cumulative Net Savings as a % of Baseline

Realistic Achievable Potential 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 3.5% 4.9%

Maximum Achievable Potential 0.6% 1.0% 1.4% 4.7% 6.6%

Economic Potential 0.9% 1.5% 2.1% 6.5% 8.8%

Technical Potential 2.5% 3.4% 4.4% 13.3% 16.6%

Figure 5-8 Industrial Measure-level Potential Savings 

Industrial Top 10 Measures

Table 5-12 identifies the top ten measures in the industrial sector for RAP in 2018. These ten 

measures account for 77% of total RAP savings. The measures with the most savings are 

variable speed controls for motors, high-efficiency linear fluorescent lighting and fan system 

optimization. 

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Energy Savings (% of Baseline Forecast)

Realistic Achievable Potential

Maximum Achievable Potential

Economic Potential

Technical Potential
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

5-14 www.enernoc.com

Table 5-12 Industrial Top 10 Measures in RAP in 2018 

Rank Measure 2018 Savings % of 

Total

1 Motors - Variable Speed Controls 4.5 14.2%

2 Interior Lighting - Linear Fluorescent 3.7 11.8%

3 Fan System - Optimization 3.1 9.9%

4 Compressed Air - System Optimization and Improvements 2.7 8.4%

5 Interior Lighting - Screw-in 2.6 8.2%

6 Exterior Lighting - Screw-in 2.6 8.0%

7 Fan Equipment Upgrade 1.8 5.6%

8 Ventilation – Conversion to VAV 1.7 5.3%

9 Interior Lighting - Daylighting Controls 1.0 3.0%

10 Cooling - Roof top AC 1.0 3.0%

Total 24.5 77.4%

Figure 5-9 illustrates RAP savings by end use in 2018 and 2025 for the industrial sector. The 

largest shares of savings opportunities are in the motors and machine drives. Potential savings 

for straight motor equipment change-outs are being eliminated due to the National Electrical 

Manufacturer’s Association (NEMA) standards, which now make premium efficiency motors the 

baseline efficiency level. As a result, the savings opportunities in this end use come from 

controls, timers, and variable speed drives, which improve system efficiencies where motors are 

utilized. These system-level measures and upgrades are also applicable to a large swath of 

applications for heating, cooling, and electrochemical processes. Beyond motors and processes, 

there are large opportunities for savings in lighting and cooling.

Figure 5-9 Industrial Measure-level RAP Savings by End Use in 2018 and 2025 

Cooling 

12%

Heating 

3%

Ventilation 

6%

Interior 

Lighting 

28%

Exterior 

Lighting 

9%

Motors 

42%

Cooling 

11%

Heating 

2%

Ventilation 

5%

Interior Lighting 

33%

Exterior 

Lighting 

8%

Motors 

41%
Measure-Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5-15

Industrial Potential by End Use

Table 5-13 provides estimates of savings for each end use and type of potential. 

Table 5-13 Industrial Measure-level Potential by End Use and Potential Type (GWh) 

End Use Case 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Cooling

RAP 2 3 4 13 17

MAP 2 4 6 18 23

Economic Potential 4 6 8 24 31

Technical Potential 6 9 12 32 40

Heating

RAP 1 1 1 3 4

MAP 1 1 1 4 6

Economic Potential 1 2 2 6 8

Technical Potential 3 4 5 12 16

Ventilation

RAP 1 1 2 6 7

MAP 1 2 3 9 10

Economic Potential 2 3 4 13 14

Technical Potential 2 4 5 15 17

Interior Lighting

RAP 4 6 9 39 65

MAP 6 10 13 54 89

Economic Potential 9 14 19 71 113

Technical Potential 11 17 22 80 120

Exterior Lighting

RAP 1 2 3 9 12

MAP 2 3 4 10 14

Economic Potential 3 4 5 12 16

Technical Potential 3 5 6 16 20

Miscellaneous

RAP 0 0 0 0 0

MAP 0 0 0 0 0

Economic Potential 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Potential 7 10 14 54 64

Motors

RAP 5 10 13 48 68

MAP 7 14 18 65 90

Economic Potential 11 22 29 95 127

Technical Potential 48 63 79 238 307

Process

RAP 0 0 0 0 0

MAP 0 0 0 0 0

Economic Potential 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Potential 0 0 0 0 0

Total

RAP 13 23 32 118 0

MAP 19 33 45 160 0

Economic Potential 29 50 67 221 0

Technical Potential 80 110 144 449 0

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6-1

CHAPTER 6

PROGRAM POTENTIAL 

Within the program potential analysis, the energy efficiency measures covered in previous 

chapters are bundled into delivery mechanisms to form specific energy efficiency programs.

Table 6-1 lists the preliminary programs to deliver an effective and balanced portfolio of energy 

savings opportunities across all customer segments.

Table 6-1 Portfolio of Energy Efficiency Programs Included in Program Potential 

Residential Programs Business Programs

Lighting Prescriptive Rebates

Energy Efficient Products Custom Incentives

Low Income Retrocommissioning

New Construction & Code Support New Construction & Code Support

Home Performance Small Business Direct Install

HVAC Multi Family Common Area

Appliance Recycling Strategic Energy Management (SEM)

Consumer Electronics

Multi Family Direct Install

Programmatic Framework and Program Descriptions

For each program, the analysis considers and develops a programmatic framework for 

administrators and implementers and includes the items listed below. 

• Target market

• Implementation strategy, including delivery channels, marketing, education and outreach

• Program issues, risks and risk management strategies

• Eligible measures and incentives

• Evaluation, measurement and verification requirements and guidance

• Administrative requirements

• Estimated participation

• Program budget

• Program energy savings and demand reduction

• Cost-effectiveness 

To develop program potential from measure-level achievable potential, the measure mix may 

change due to a number of the program delivery factors described above. Therefore, the 

program potential is an optimized subset of the measure-level potential designed for 

implementation in a specific market and service territory. Also, the installations resulting from 

the measure-level analysis were smoothed to achieve continuity with historic programs and on a 

year-to-year basis. The measure-level results reflect the timing of equipment turnover based on 

appliance age and this sometimes creates modeling artifacts undesirable to an implementer. For 

instance, if the measure-level model produces a spike of installations in the year a new 
Program Potential

6-2 www.enernoc.com

technology first becomes available, this should be leveled out in the program design to a pattern 

that is more realistic but such that the total number of installations over the study timeframe is 

equal to the measure-level model. This smoothing of installations typically has only minor effects 

from year to year.

For the business sector, we removed twenty-five percent of the measure-level potential from 

offices and schools to represent the potential that is associated with the public sector. The 

Ameren programs do not target public sector buildings, but they are included in the measurelevel potential. Public sector buildings are the target of programs from other entitites.

The most significant difference between measure-level potential and program potential is the 

assignment of program costs. The approach used identifies costs as base-program costs (or 

above-the-line costs) and portfolio administration costs (or below-the-line costs). Base program 

costs include incentive costs and implementation costs. Incentive costs are defined as a percent 

of incremental measure costs, both for equipment and installation, based on generic rules that 

are used for best practice program planning around the country. Implementation costs are then 

specified and benchmarked to general best practices. A similar best practice allocation and 

benchmarking process is then followed for the below-the-line portfolio administration costs: 

EM&V, portfolio marketing, and portfolio administration. 

With the additional program costs levied on the program-level potential, the cost-effectiveness 

criterion is violated for both RAP and MAP (TRC <1.0). Therefore, program design judgment was 

applied to refine the portfolio by scaling back installations of less economic measures. As an 

example, the number of installations of HVAC retrocommissioning in industrial facilities was 

reduced where it was is less effective than, say, in office buildings. Another example of where 

the number of installations was reduced is in expensive, emerging technology measures in the 

study’s out-years: the number of SEER 21 installations for central air conditioning and linear 

fluorescent-style LED lamps, both of which show very marginal economics, were significantly 

reduced. Unless edited, these examples become cost effective in the 2020s, become very 

prevalent in programs, and levy disproportionate costs to the bottom line. (It should be noted 

that we did not alter the installation of more cost-effective, lower SEER levels or other LED 

lights.)

Another program design intervention that was applied to measure-level results was to manually 

include some CFL measures in the mix of screw-in lighting installations. The measure-level model 

selected LEDs for these installations exclusively, but the market reality is that some CFLs will 

continue to produce savings in programs. Aligning with program planning assumptions from 

Ameren, the program potential begins in 2016 by splitting the available screw-in measures 70% 

to CFLs and 30% to LEDs. This mix shifts rapidly toward LEDs, however, and is 90% LED by the 

end of the study timeframe. 

Below are summary highlights of the programs we recommend for delivery, along with key 

elements of each one’s programmatic framework.

Residential Programs 

Lighting

This program emphasizes standardized rebates and upstream buydowns, with a market 

transformation focus. The concentration will be on both CFL and LED lighting, with LEDs 

becoming more prominent in the measure mix quickly as time progresses. LED technology costs 

are declining very quickly, and they are cost-effective for the residential sector in our models 

immediately when the study timeframe begins in 2016. Note that savings from general purpose 

lamps decrease over time due to the EISA standards, which increase the efficiency of the 

baseline technology, as well as ongoing market transformation. Meanwhile, the number of 

specialty lamps delivered by the program increases over the same period, as these lamps are not 

covered by EISA.
Program Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6-3

Energy Efficient Products

This program emphasizes standardized rebates, and upstream buydowns, with a market 

transformation focus. Specific measures covered under this program include high-efficiency 

central air conditioning and heat pumps, water heaters, pool pumps and heaters, attic and ceiling 

fans, air purifiers, thermostats, low-flow water fixtures, and water heater pipe insulation. The 

primary delivery mechanism for this program is via retailers, particularly big box stores.

Low Income 

This program provides education and a suite of electric efficiency measures to help incomequalified customers reduce their energy bills. Whereas existing Ameren low income programs 

target multifamily housing, this recommended program expands offerings to all income-qualified 

residential customers. These customers are defined as those with an average household income 

at or below 200% of the federal poverty level. Full installation of direct-install measures is 

subsidized and provided to the residents.

Measures in this program are high-efficiency central air conditioning and heat pumps, water 

heaters, CFLs, LEDs, low-flow water fixtures, water heater pipe insulation, building shell 

infiltration control, insulation, windows, and ceiling fans.

This particular program is not highly cost-effective, but consensus agreement around the nation 

is that this is acceptable for income-limited populations, as long as the overall portfolio is still 

cost-effective. 

New Construction & Code Support

This program is designed to accelerate the incorporation of energy efficient design, construction, 

and operation in new residential buildings. It provides education and incentive payments to 

upstream designer-builders and owner-builders for installing high efficiency end-use equipment 

— mainly HVAC and lighting — and building envelope measures.

Home Performance

This program incorporates a whole-home focus to provide education and a suite of electric 

efficiency measures that help residential customers improve the energy performance of their 

home and systems and reduce energy bills. The program is targeted at the existing home market

and is a prime candidate for cross-selling into other programs and measures, chiefly the HVAC 

program.

Current direct install measures in this program are CFLs and low-flow water fixtures. More 

involved measures include efficient air conditioning and heat pump equipment, lighting, 

insulation, windows, duct repair & sealing, programmable thermostats, and ceiling and attic fans. 

HVAC

This program is explicitly aimed at improving HVAC systems, with the primary delivery 

mechanism being trade allies such as contractors who install and maintain HVAC systems. 

Measures include high-efficiency central air conditioning and heat pumps, ducting insulation, 

ducting repair and sealing, and programmable thermostats. It also supports maintenance of AC 

and heat pump systems, and early replacement of aging central AC. 

Appliance Recycling

This program pursues energy savings by offering a bounty payment to customers to remove their 

old, inefficient appliances from the grid and recycle them. It has the potential to deliver large 

savings available from three cost-effective measures: room air-conditioners, secondary 

refrigerators, and secondary freezers.

One concern with this program is the possibility that after program pick-up of their secondary 

refrigerator, residents might simply buy a new unit and move their former primary unit into the 
Program Potential

6-4 www.enernoc.com

garage or basement to replace it. This is why the program is penalized with a challenging net-togross ratio. 

Consumer Electronics

This program provides incentives to promote purchase of ENERGY STAR and high-efficiency 

televisions, personal computers, monitors, laptops, and set-top equipment such as DVRs or game 

systems. It also provides support for smart power strips that can reduce use when systems are 

in standby mode. The program emphasizes standardized rebates and upstream buydowns, with a 

market transformation focus.

Multi Family Direct Install

This program provides targeted, highly cost-effective measures to multifamily households in a 

quickly deployable program delivery mechanism. These are often rental units with split incentive 

barriers, i.e., the landlord is the owner of the equipment but the tenant pays the energy bills. It 

is therefore typically an underserved market with respect to energy efficiency programs and an 

important program to include in the portfolio. 

Measures in this program are primarily CFLs, LEDs, infiltration control, thermostats, and low-flow 

water fixtures. Program delivery will rely heavily on trade allies. Full installation of these directinstall measures is provided at no cost to program participants. 

Business Programs 

Prescriptive Rebates

This program is designed to help business customers save energy through a broad range of EE 

options that address all major end uses and processes. It offers incentives to customers and 

engages equipment suppliers and contractors to promote the incentive-eligible equipment, 

focusing on standardized rebates, upstream buydowns, and market transformation.

Together with Custom Incentives, this program is where a bulk of business program savings and 

dollars are focused. Business energy efficiency efforts are very project-centric, with many large 

projects participating in a hybrid of standard, prescriptive rebates and custom project incentives.

Thus, delivery is integrated in many ways between the two programs. 

It is worth noting that, as in the residential portfolio, LED lighting is an important, cost-effective 

measure in non-residential applications at the outset of the study timeframe in 2016. LED 

technology costs are declining very quickly, and will become a larger and larger part of the 

business programs in the coming years. 

Custom Incentives

This program is designed to help business customers save energy through customizable projects 

that are too complex to fit in a standard prescriptive rebate offering. 

Together with Prescriptive Rebates, this program is where a bulk of business program savings 

and dollars are focused. Business energy efficiency efforts are very project-centric, with many 

large projects participating in a hybrid of standard, prescriptive rebates and custom project 

incentives. Thus, delivery is integrated in many ways between the two programs.

Retrocommissioning

This program involves the initial, periodic, or continual monitoring and commissioning of building 

energy systems such as heating, cooling, ventilation, and lighting in order to optimize energy 

consumption relative to actual building usage. The focus is on low-cost or no-cost measures such 

as control strategies, sensor adjustment or replacement, set-point adjustments, and the like. 
Program Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6-5

New Construction & Code Support

This program, starting in 2016, is designed to accelerate the incorporation of energy efficient 

design, construction, and operation in new business facilities and buildings. It provides education 

and incentive payments to upstream designer-builders and owner-builders for installing high 

efficiency end-use equipment and building envelope measures. 

Small Business Direct Install

This program provides targeted, highly cost-effective measures to small business customers in a 

quickly deployable program delivery mechanism to help them reduce their energy bills and foster 

awareness and cross-selling of other efficiency portfolio efforts. 

Measures include lighting replacements, HVAC equipment maintenance, low-flow faucet aerators 

and pre-rinse sprayers, occupancy controls for lighting, programmable thermostats, and smart 

power strips. The program goal is to deploy a network of qualified trade allies and contractors 

that can install these measures quickly and free of charge to participants. The program aims to 

perform a site assessment and implementation of measures on the same day.

Multi Family Common Area

This program is a natural complement to the Multi Family program that addresses energy used 

within the residential units. Many of the same trade ally channels can be used to promote both 

programs. Measures covered for Multi Family Common Areas include LEDs, CFLs, high-bay 

fixtures, lighting and daylighting controls, HVAC equipment, non-HVAC motors, insulation, and 

water-saving low-flow fixtures.

Strategic Energy Management

Strategic Energy Management (or SEM) involves energy education, advising, and coaching for 

non-residential customers to drive behavioral change and transformation of company culture 

toward improved energy efficiency and utilization. This means the appointment of energy liaisons

and teams within participating organizations who will regularly correspond with program 

representatives. Institutionalizing internal policies and practices this way creates long-lasting 

behavioral-based savings, operational savings, and installation of tangible energy-saving 

equipment and measures.
Program Potential

6-6 www.enernoc.com

Program Potential Results

In this section, a high-level summary of program potential is presented, followed by year-by-year 

program savings and costs. 

Summary of Program Potential

Table 6-2 and Figure 6-1 present a high-level summary of program potential as well as measurelevel potential. 

• At the end of the 2016-18 program cycle, program potential is in the range of 539 GWh to 

768 GWh. As a percent of the baseline projection, the cumulative savings in 2018 are in the 

range of 1.8% to 2.5%. 

• By 2030, program RAP and MAP increase to 2,133 GWh and 2,890 GWh, respectively. 

Table 6-2 Summary of Program Potential 

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Baseline Projection (GWh) 30,249 30,449 30,694 32,228 33,721

Cumulative Savings (GWh)

 Program RAP 174 346 539 1,629 2,133

 Program MAP 251 495 768 2,235 2,890

 RAP (Measure-Level) 339 561 806 2,697 3,958

 MAP (Measure-Level) 510 833 1,178 3,753 5,376

Cumulative Savings (% of Baseline)

 Program RAP 0.6% 1.1% 1.8% 5.1% 6.3%

 Program MAP 0.8% 1.6% 2.5% 6.9% 8.6%

 RAP (Measure-Level) 1.1% 1.8% 2.6% 8.4% 11.7%

 MAP (Measure-Level) 1.7% 2.7% 3.8% 11.6% 15.9%

Figure 6-1 Summary of Program and Measure-level RAP and MAP (% of baseline) 

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

 Program RAP

 RAP (Measure-Level)

 Program MAP

 MAP (Measure-Level)
Program Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6-7

Year-by-year Program Potential

The year-by-year program potential results for the RAP and MAP program portfolios are shown

below. Figure 6-2 and Figure 6-3 show the net incremental energy savings in each year of the 

study by program for the RAP and MAP cases respectively. Figure 6-4 and Figure 6-5 show the 

annual budgets for RAP and MAP cases respectively for the portfolio. Note that the savings 

presented here are net savings not gross savings.

Figure 6-2 RAP Program Potential - Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh) 

Figure 6-3 MAP Program Potential- Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh) 

 -

 50,000

 100,000

 150,000

 200,000

 250,000

 300,000

Total Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh)

Res Lighting

Res Energy Efficient Products

Res Low Income

Res New Construction & Code Support

Res Home Performance

Res HVAC

Res Appliance Recycling

Res Consumer Electronics

Res Multi Family Direct Install

Bus Prescriptive Rebates

Bus Custom Incentives

Bus Retrocommissioning

Bus New Construction & Code Support

Bus Small Business Direct Install

Bus Multi Family Common Area

Bus Strategic Energy Management

 -

 50,000

 100,000

 150,000

 200,000

 250,000

 300,000

 350,000

Total Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh)

Res Lighting

Res Energy Efficient Products

Res Low Income

Res New Construction & Code Support

Res Home Performance

Res HVAC

Res Appliance Recycling

Res Consumer Electronics

Res Multi Family Direct Install

Bus Prescriptive Rebates

Bus Custom Incentives

Bus Retrocommissioning

Bus New Construction & Code Support

Bus Small Business Direct Install

Bus Multi Family Common Area

Bus Strategic Energy Management
Program Potential

6-8 www.enernoc.com

Figure 6-4 RAP Program Potential - Annual Utility Budgets 

Figure 6-5 MAP Program Potential - Annual Utility Budgets 

Table 6-3 and Table 6-4 shows the detailed annual savings and budgets for the recommended 

portfolios.

$0

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

$60,000,000

$70,000,000

$80,000,000

$90,000,000

Annual Utility Budgets

Res Lighting

Res Energy Efficient Products

Res Low Income

Res New Construction & Code Support

Res Home Performance

Res HVAC

Res Appliance Recycling

Res Consumer Electronics

Res Multi Family Direct Install

Bus Prescriptive Rebates

Bus Custom Incentives

Bus Retrocommissioning

Bus New Construction & Code Support

Bus Small Business Direct Install

Bus Multi Family Common Area

Bus Strategic Energy Management

$0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

$160,000,000

Annual Utility Budgets

Res Lighting

Res Energy Efficient Products

Res Low Income

Res New Construction & Code Support

Res Home Performance

Res HVAC

Res Appliance Recycling

Res Consumer Electronics

Res Multi Family Direct Install

Bus Prescriptive Rebates

Bus Custom Incentives

Bus Retrocommissioning

Bus New Construction & Code Support

Bus Small Business Direct Install

Bus Multi Family Common Area

Bus Strategic Energy Management
Program Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6-9

Table 6-3 RAP Program Potential Portfolio Summary 

Program

Total Program Administrator Cost (000$) Total Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh) Total Net Incremental Demand Savings (kW)

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Res Lighting 4,438 5,032 4,446 2,744 1,593 19,876 21,234 22,043 3,528 2,893 1,196 1,278 1,326 213 174

Res Energy Efficient Products 2,363 2,457 2,624 4,277 4,991 7,094 7,150 8,871 13,864 14,940 1,365 1,381 1,543 1,817 1,882

Res Low Income 6,817 6,881 6,942 8,648 8,980 7,613 7,797 8,031 8,403 8,830 971 970 995 889 877

Res New Construction & Code Support 1,268 1,423 1,546 1,846 2,498 2,912 3,057 3,452 4,206 5,508 391 464 631 752 842

Res Home Performance 3,344 3,357 3,515 3,945 4,717 8,819 8,839 9,815 10,243 11,400 1,721 1,707 1,979 1,895 2,049

Res HVAC 6,126 6,446 6,709 7,077 7,761 9,190 9,464 10,410 11,586 13,816 5,356 5,538 5,761 6,221 6,965

Res Appliance Recycling 1,966 1,886 2,998 1,671 3,718 7,261 6,717 10,499 5,058 10,908 887 820 1,280 525 1,408

Res Consumer Electronics 1,117 1,018 1,161 579 535 5,933 4,981 5,863 1,879 1,741 481 403 474 150 138

Res Multi Family Direct Install 534 543 576 615 672 1,166 1,192 1,370 1,594 1,719 230 237 267 351 405

Bus Prescriptive Rebates 6,856 7,943 7,958 8,510 8,340 31,556 32,325 32,614 45,694 50,035 8,351 7,149 7,557 8,028 6,441

Bus Custom Incentives 11,985 12,608 13,180 15,265 15,248 46,490 39,906 42,910 49,511 44,891 11,461 8,992 9,775 11,466 9,988

Bus Retrocommissioning 1,103 1,091 1,275 1,721 2,209 7,942 7,729 8,706 9,580 10,958 1,852 1,665 1,764 1,939 1,825

Bus New Construction & Code Support 908 1,063 1,251 1,717 1,905 3,406 3,501 4,762 6,754 8,455 350 383 440 670 747

Bus Small Business Direct Install 7,423 9,221 9,609 10,955 8,520 9,337 9,769 11,430 15,710 14,330 2,268 1,740 2,153 2,867 2,051

Bus Multi Family Common Area 534 736 752 778 616 1,617 1,879 2,160 2,923 2,883 262 299 345 427 400

Bus Strategic Energy Management 645 1,168 1,853 2,892 3,028 3,472 6,540 10,552 16,639 17,440 682 1,285 2,073 3,271 3,430

Residential Total: 27,972 29,043 30,517 31,403 35,466 69,862 70,432 80,353 60,362 71,756 12,599 12,797 14,257 12,812 14,740

Business Total: 29,455 33,831 35,878 41,839 39,866 103,819 101,650 113,134 146,812 148,991 25,226 21,513 24,106 28,668 24,884

Portfolio Total: 57,427 62,874 66,395 73,242 75,332 173,682 172,081 193,487 207,173 220,747 37,824 34,310 38,362 41,480 39,624
Program Potential

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Table 6-4 MAP Program Potential Portfolio Summary

Program

Total Program Administrator Cost (000$) Total Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh) Total Net Incremental Demand Savings (kW)

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Res Lighting 7,808 8,857 7,822 3,822 2,115 28,102 30,007 30,997 3,812 2,833 1,690 1,804 1,864 230 171

Res Energy Efficient Products 4,424 4,600 4,905 7,831 9,045 10,154 10,244 12,544 18,976 19,973 1,864 1,886 2,100 2,428 2,474

Res Low Income 8,970 9,068 9,139 11,193 11,619 10,387 10,655 10,954 11,114 11,566 1,313 1,315 1,346 1,174 1,150

Res New Construction & Code Support 2,401 2,690 2,944 3,443 4,600 4,066 4,262 4,826 5,762 7,379 560 660 910 1,024 1,112

Res Home Performance 6,158 6,173 6,481 7,130 8,495 12,206 12,202 13,563 13,723 14,985 2,383 2,349 2,742 2,505 2,664

Res HVAC 11,193 11,770 12,256 12,845 14,104 12,577 12,919 14,249 15,690 18,634 7,082 7,310 7,609 8,137 9,096

Res Appliance Recycling 2,564 2,448 3,857 2,095 4,626 9,366 8,614 13,419 6,254 13,461 1,142 1,049 1,633 644 1,741

Res Consumer Electronics 1,798 1,640 1,861 871 785 8,609 7,246 8,491 2,426 2,166 697 586 687 193 171

Res Multi Family Direct Install 688 700 735 773 839 1,468 1,503 1,698 1,910 2,057 273 281 313 401 462

Bus Prescriptive Rebates 14,080 16,084 16,115 17,450 16,995 46,042 46,630 46,616 62,400 67,305 11,983 10,119 10,639 10,772 8,423

Bus Custom Incentives 26,809 27,341 28,675 33,050 32,676 68,791 57,286 61,106 68,831 61,349 17,037 12,839 13,944 15,742 13,307

Bus Retrocommissioning 2,707 2,664 3,122 4,101 5,282 11,749 11,312 12,697 12,976 14,220 2,710 2,418 2,550 2,692 2,417

Bus New Construction & Code Support 1,985 2,280 2,716 3,600 4,013 4,995 5,025 6,824 8,874 11,016 493 530 612 909 1,007

Bus Small Business Direct Install 10,020 12,284 12,818 15,009 11,669 13,022 13,395 15,477 21,333 19,581 3,215 2,403 2,950 3,860 2,723

Bus Multi Family Common Area 1,093 1,520 1,555 1,666 1,305 2,234 2,568 2,908 3,975 3,956 357 405 463 575 536

Bus Strategic Energy Management 1,290 1,965 2,806 3,890 4,073 6,943 10,901 15,828 22,186 23,254 1,364 2,141 3,109 4,361 4,574

Residential Total: 46,004 47,946 49,999 50,004 56,227 96,934 97,653 110,742 79,667 93,054 17,003 17,241 19,204 16,735 19,041

Business Total: 57,984 64,137 67,808 78,768 76,014 153,776 147,118 161,456 200,574 200,681 37,161 30,855 34,267 38,911 32,986

Portfolio Total: 103,988 112,083 117,807 128,772 132,240 250,710 244,770 272,198 280,241 293,735 54,164 48,095 53,471 55,647 52,027
Program Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6-11

Cost-effectiveness 

With the program savings and budgets, we perform the industry standard cost-effectiveness 

tests to gauge the economic merits of the portfolio. Each test compares the benefits of the EE 

programs to their costs — using its own unique perspectives and definitions — all defined in 

terms of net present value of future cash flows. The definitions for the four standard tests most 

commonly used in EE program design are described below.

• Total Resource Cost test (TRC). The benefits in this test are the lifetime avoided energy 

costs and avoided capacity costs. The costs in this test are the incremental measure costs 

plus all administrative costs spent by the program administrator. 

• Utility Cost Test (UCT). The benefits in this test are the lifetime avoided energy costs and 

avoided capacity costs, the same as the TRC benefits. The costs in this test are the program 

administrator’s incentive costs and administrative costs. 

• Participant Cost Test (PCT). The benefits in this test are the lifetime value of retail rate 

savings (which is another way of saying “lost utility revenues”). The costs in this test are 

those seen by the participant; in other words: the incremental measure costs minus the 

value of incentives paid out.

• Rate Impact Measure test (RIM). The benefits of the RIM test are the same as the TRC 

benefits. The RIM costs are the same as the UCT, except for the addition of lost revenue. 

This test attempts to show the effects that EE programs will have on rates, which is almost 

always to raise them on a per unit basis. Thus, costs typically outweigh benefits from the 

point of view of this test, but the assumption is that absolute energy use decreases to a 

greater extent than per-unit rates are increased — resulting in lower average utility bills. 

The cost-effectiveness results for the Program Plan RAP case are shown in Table 6-5, indicating 

lifetime TRC benefits of $2,008 million and costs of $1,547 million for a TRC ratio of 1.30. For 

the MAP case, shown in Table 6-6, TRC benefits and costs respectively are $2,718 million and 

$2,190, resulting in a TRC ratio of 1.24. 

Table 6-5 RAP Portfolio Cost-Effectiveness Summary 

TRC 

Ratio TRC Benefits TRC Costs UCT Ratio

PCT 

Ratio

RIM 

Ratio

Res Lighting 1.35 $87,778,355 $64,869,977 1.99 7.52 0.44

Res Energy Efficient Products 1.19 $105,744,748 $88,655,071 2.13 3.71 0.54

Res Low Income 0.69 $73,213,136 $106,343,099 0.69 - 0.35

Res New Construction & Code 

Support 1.12 $51,525,317 $45,979,925 1.99 3.00 0.60

Res Home Performance 1.01 $97,882,515 $96,848,516 1.83 2.99 0.53

Res HVAC 1.17 $198,678,743 $169,770,774 2.13 2.25 0.75

Res Appliance Recycling 1.55 $58,410,006 $37,597,855 1.55 - 0.46

Res Consumer Electronics 1.13 $11,596,914 $10,260,877 1.13 - 0.39

Res Multi Family Direct Install 1.37 $11,109,698 $8,092,535 1.37 - 0.51

Bus Prescriptive Rebates 1.71 $391,985,341 $228,951,865 3.72 3.55 0.72

Bus Custom Incentives 1.34 $560,574,779 $417,091,262 2.93 2.94 0.65

Bus Retrocommissioning 1.22 $61,320,491 $50,342,234 2.69 2.75 0.62

Bus New Construction & Code 

Support 1.24 $56,776,309 $45,703,176 2.67 3.44 0.54

Bus Small Business Direct Install 1.38 $170,452,265 $123,601,265 1.38 - 0.49

Bus Multi Family Common Area 1.61 $30,998,372 $19,253,581 3.38 4.28 0.59

Bus Strategic Energy Mgmt. 1.20 $40,126,710 $33,339,685 1.20 - 0.48

Residential Total: 1.11 $695,939,432 $628,418,628 1.62 4.47 0.53

Business Total: 1.43 $1,312,234,267 $918,283,068 2.59 3.84 0.63

Portfolio Total: 1.30 $2,008,173,699 $1,546,701,696 2.15 4.04 0.59
Program Potential

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Table 6-6 MAP Portfolio Cost-Effectiveness Summary 

TRC 

Ratio TRC Benefits TRC Costs UCT Ratio

PCT 

Ratio

RIM 

Ratio

Res Lighting 1.28 $111,840,012 $87,218,945 1.59 12.03 0.41

Res Energy Efficient Products 1.17 $142,520,051 $121,579,637 1.56 6.43 0.50

Res Low Income 0.70 $96,830,378 $138,418,512 0.70 - 0.35

Res New Construction & Code 

Support 1.08 $69,786,162 $64,463,104 1.44 5.09 0.54

Res Home Performance 1.00 $130,791,887 $131,299,149 1.34 5.12 0.48

Res HVAC 1.16 $266,376,831 $229,946,924 1.56 3.95 0.66

Res Appliance Recycling 1.54 $73,063,272 $47,471,692 1.54 - 0.46

Res Consumer Electronics 1.00 $15,937,374 $15,891,266 1.00 - 0.37

Res Multi Family Direct Install 1.32 $13,513,617 $10,218,208 1.32 - 0.49

Bus Prescriptive Rebates 1.62 $530,256,664 $327,533,467 2.47 5.28 0.65

Bus Custom Incentives 1.24 $778,261,341 $625,618,404 1.87 4.42 0.58

Bus Retrocommissioning 1.04 $84,900,708 $81,419,456 1.55 3.92 0.53

Bus New Construction & Code 

Support 1.14 $76,680,928 $67,548,965 1.70 5.03 0.48

Bus Small Business Direct Install 1.38 $230,857,250 $167,205,819 1.38 - 0.49

Bus Multi Family Common Area 1.48 $41,809,189 $28,216,191 2.18 6.46 0.54

Bus Strategic Energy Mgmt. 1.18 $54,534,459 $46,035,085 1.18 - 0.47

Residential Total: 1.09 $920,659,585 $846,507,437 1.33 7.54 0.49

Business Total: 1.34 $1,797,300,539 $1,343,577,388 1.87 5.69 0.57

Portfolio Total: 1.24 $2,717,960,124 $2,190,084,824 1.65 6.23 0.54

Supply Curves 

The purpose of supply curves is to better understand the relationship between energy efficiency 

savings and the costs required to reach those savings levels. Energy efficiency measures and/or 

programs and their associated impacts are rank-ordered according to their cost per unit of 

savings. The two data points (unit cost and savings impacts) are plotted on a line chart. As 

programs become more expensive, there is a point on the supply curve where it appears that 

significantly greater cost will be required to reach very little additional EE savings. 

Supply curves can yield insights about a portfolio of conservation programs. Such insights are 

not visible when one is looking at the impacts and costs associated with any one individual 

program. 

In the supply curves, the y-axis shows the unit cost of the saved energy, and the x-axis shows 

the energy savings impacts. To develop the supply curves, the following data must be considered 

and assembled.

Y-axis: Unit Cost 

For the y-axis, one must represent each measure or program’s cost per unit of energy saved. 

This can be done on a first-year basis or a levelized/lifetime basis, wherein the cost is amortized 

or spread across the lifetime of the savings. Once this data is assembled, it is rank-ordered from 

least cost to highest cost. 

X-axis: Energy Savings Impacts

For the x-axis, one must represent the energy savings obtained by each measure or program. 

This can be done in terms of absolute energy savings or as a percentage of the baseline 

projection. The supply curve and associated data can also be prepared for a single year at a 

time, or for a summation of cumulative savings over multiple years. Different formulations are 
Program Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6-13

useful for different purposes, and it is important to specify the assumptions when presenting the 

data. An example data set is shown in Table 6-7 below.

Table 6-7 Example of Measure Data Preparation for Supply Curve 

Measures Entering 

Supply Curve

Incremental 

Measure 

Cost

Number 

of Units

Annual 

kWh 

Savings/

Unit

Effective 

Useful 

Life 

(years)

X-Axis Y-Axis 

(option 1)

Y-Axis 

(option 2)

Total FirstYear kWh 

Savings 

First-Year 

$/kWh

Lifetime or 

Levelized 

$/kWh*

A B C D B * C A / C (A amortized 

over D)* / C

CFL lamp $2 100,000 30 5 3,000,000 $0.07 $0.01

Ceiling Insulation $500 1,200 1500 25 1,800,000 $0.33 $0.02

SEER 16 AC $150 800 350 14 280,000 $0.43 $0.04

Heat Pump Maint. $50 150 90 3 13,500 $0.56 $0.19

* Assuming a discount rate of 3.00%

Program Supply Curves 

Once the data is assembled, it can be plotted on a supply curve that has a new data point for 

every measure, stacked from lowest unit cost to highest unit cost. Figure 6-6 provides levelized 

cost supply curves for installations under the two Program Potential cases described above, for 

the period 2016–2018. Figure 6-7 provides this information for the period 2016-2033.

Figure 6-6 Levelized Cost Supply Curves, 2016–2018, RAP and MAP Portfolios 

 $-

 $0.010

 $0.020

 $0.030

 $0.040

 $0.050

 $0.060

 $0.070

 $0.080

 $0.090

 $0.100

 - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000

Levelized Cost per kWh (2016-2018)

Cumulative MWh Savings in 2018

RAP MAP
Program Potential

6-14 www.enernoc.com

Figure 6-7 Levelized Cost Supply Curves, 2016–2033 RAP and MAP Portfolios 

The data corresponding to Figure 6-6 and Figure 6-7 is provided in Table 6-8. Table 6-9 shows 

first-year costs by program. 

Table 6-8 Levelized Cost by Program - RAP and MAP 

RAP Levelized

$/kWh

2016-2018

MAP Levelized

$/kWh

2016-2018

RAP Levelized

$/kWh

2016-2033

MAP Levelized

$/kWh

2016-2033

Res Lighting $0.018 $0.023 $0.028 $0.035

Res Energy Efficient Products $0.037 $0.049 $0.035 $0.047

Res Low Income $0.089 $0.085 $0.103 $0.101

Res New Construction & Code $0.045 $0.060 $0.045 $0.062

Res Home Performance $0.039 $0.051 $0.043 $0.058

Res HVAC $0.063 $0.083 $0.057 $0.076

Res Appliance Recycling $0.036 $0.036 $0.041 $0.041

Res Consumer Electronics $0.039 $0.043 $0.046 $0.051

Res Multi Family Direct Install $0.056 $0.056 $0.057 $0.058

Bus Prescriptive Rebates $0.026 $0.037 $0.024 $0.036

Bus Custom Incentives $0.028 $0.043 $0.029 $0.046

Bus Retrocommissioning $0.023 $0.039 $0.029 $0.050

Bus New Construction & Code $0.032 $0.048 $0.026 $0.042

Bus Small Business Direct Install $0.085 $0.083 $0.059 $0.059

Bus Multi Family Common Area $0.036 $0.054 $0.023 $0.035

Bus Strategic Energy Management $0.062 $0.062 $0.060 $0.061

Residential Total: $0.041 $0.049 $0.049 $0.059

Non-Residential Total: $0.035 $0.046 $0.033 $0.045

Portfolio Total: $0.037 $0.047 $0.039 $0.050

 $-

 $0.020

 $0.040

 $0.060

 $0.080

 $0.100

 $0.120

 - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000

Levelized Cost per kWh (2016-2033)

Cumulative MWh Savings in 2033

RAP MAP
Program Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6-15

Table 6-9 First-year Cost per kWh by Program — RAP and MAP 

Program 

RAP MAP

2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018

Res Lighting $0.22 $0.24 $0.20 $0.28 $0.30 $0.25

Res Energy Efficient Products $0.33 $0.34 $0.30 $0.44 $0.45 $0.39

Res Low Income $0.90 $0.88 $0.86 $0.86 $0.85 $0.83

Res New Construction & Code Support $0.44 $0.47 $0.45 $0.59 $0.63 $0.61

Res Home Performance $0.38 $0.38 $0.36 $0.50 $0.51 $0.48

Res HVAC $0.67 $0.68 $0.64 $0.89 $0.91 $0.86

Res Appliance Recycling $0.27 $0.28 $0.29 $0.27 $0.28 $0.29

Res Consumer Electronics $0.19 $0.20 $0.20 $0.21 $0.23 $0.22

Res Multi Family Direct Install $0.46 $0.46 $0.42 $0.47 $0.47 $0.43

Bus Prescriptive Rebates $0.22 $0.25 $0.24 $0.31 $0.34 $0.35

Bus Custom Incentives $0.26 $0.32 $0.31 $0.39 $0.48 $0.47

Bus Retrocommissioning $0.14 $0.14 $0.15 $0.23 $0.24 $0.25

Bus New Construction & Code Support $0.27 $0.30 $0.26 $0.40 $0.45 $0.40

Bus Small Business Direct Install $0.80 $0.94 $0.84 $0.77 $0.92 $0.83

Bus Multi Family Common Area $0.33 $0.39 $0.35 $0.49 $0.59 $0.53

Bus Strategic Energy Management $0.19 $0.18 $0.18 $0.19 $0.18 $0.18

Residential Total $0.40 $0.41 $0.38 $0.47 $0.49 $0.45

Non-Residential Total $0.28 $0.33 $0.32 $0.38 $0.44 $0.42

Portfolio Total $0.33 $0.37 $0.34 $0.41 $0.46 $0.43

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 7-1

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

In addition to development of a reference case of energy-efficiency potential, sensitivity analyses 

were performed for three key assumptions in the study:

• Avoided costs

• Economic growth

• Program net-to-gross ratios

The remainder of this chapter describes the results of this analysis.

Avoided Cost 

Avoided costs affect the cost-effectiveness of energy-efficiency measures. Higher avoided costs 

cause more measures to pass the screen and result in higher potential savings, while lower costs 

cause fewer measures to pass. Of these two options, higher avoided costs are more interesting 

to assess. Chapter 5 presents the measure-level results associated with the reference case 

avoided costs shown in Figure 7-1. For this sensitivity analysis, the avoided costs used in the 

2010 Study were applied. All other assumptions were held constant. As shown in Figure 7-1, the 

avoided costs used in the previous study were significantly higher than those used in this study.

Figure 7-1 Comparison of Avoided Costs 

 $-

 $20.00

 $40.00

 $60.00

 $80.00

 $100.00

 $120.00

Avoided Costs ($/MWh)

Reference Case

Higher Avoided Costs

CHAPTER 7
Sensitivity Analysis

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As a result of higher avoided costs, more measures passed the economic screen (meaning it has 

a TRC benefit-to-cost ratio greater than or equal to 1.0). For each sector, only four additional 

measures passed the TRC. This indicates that very few measures are close to the marginal value 

of 1.0 in the reference case. The number of measures passing in each case is shown in Table 

7-1.

Table 7-1 Number of Measures Passing the Economic Screen - Comparison 

Reference Case Higher Avoided Costs Additional Measures

Residential 43 47 4

Commercial 100 104 4

Industrial 39 43 4

Passing Measures 182 194 12

In the next program cycle (2016-2018), RAP savings using the higher avoided costs are 16% 

higher than in the reference case. By 2030, the cumulative RAP savings are 7% higher than in 

the reference case.

Table 7-2 EE Potential - Comparison of Avoided Cost Sensitivity Cases (GWh) 

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

RAP Potential Energy Savings (GWh)

Reference case 339 561 806 2,697 3,958

Higher avoided costs 395 650 932 2,968 4,229

Increase in potential savings 56 89 126 270 271

RAP Potential Energy Savings (% of Baseline)

Reference case 1.1% 1.8% 2.6% 8.4% 11.7%

Higher avoided costs 1.3% 2.1% 3.0% 9.2% 12.5%

Increase in potential savings 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.8%

MAP Potential Energy Savings (GWh)

Reference case 510 833 1,179 3,753 5,377

Higher avoided costs 592 963 1,360 4,116 5,727

Increase in potential savings 82 130 181 363 350

MAP Potential Energy Savings (% of Baseline)

Reference case 1.7% 2.7% 3.8% 11.6% 15.9%

Higher avoided costs 2.0% 3.2% 4.4% 12.8% 17.0%

Increase in potential savings 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 1.0%
Sensitivity Analysis

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 7-3

Economic Growth 

Another major driver for the analysis is the economic growth assumption in the baseline 

projection. The reference case aligns with the assumptions used for Ameren’s load forecast. For 

this sensitivity analysis, a low-high band was developed. 

• For the low load growth case, customer growth was assumed to be flat in each sector. 

• For the high load growth case, customer growth was 20% over the reference case in each 

year. 

As expected and shown in Table 7-3, the potential savings are lower in the low economic case 

and higher in the high economic case.

Table 7-3 Comparison of Baseline Projection, MAP and RAP for Economic-Growth Sensitivity 

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

RAP Potential Energy Savings (GWh)

Reference case 339 561 806 2,697 3,958

Low load growth 301 492 698 2,180 3,155

High load growth 421 690 1,000 3,383 4,861

MAP Potential Energy Savings (GWh)

Reference case 510 833 1,179 3,753 5,377

Low load growth 452 729 1,018 3,026 4,278

High load growth 635 1,029 1,466 4,719 6,616

Figure 7-2 shows the percentage change in the RAP potential for the various scenarios. The High 

Load Growth scenario shows the largest impact, increasing the potential savings by 23% from 

the reference case. 

Figure 7-2 Comparison of Sensitivity Cases (% change in RAP Potential savings, 2030) 

High Load Growth 

Scenario, 23%

Low Load Growth 

Scenario, -20%

Avoided Costs 

Scenario, 7%

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

% Change from Base Scenario
Sensitivity Analysis

7-4 www.enernoc.com

Net-to-gross Assumptions

A key assumption in the program design is the net-to-gross ratio assumed for each program. The 

net-to-gross ratio identifies the fraction of program participants who would not have purchased 

the EE measures in the absence of a program. The net-to-gross ratio used in the reference 

forecast was provided by Ameren and is based on EM&V results for each program. The sensitivity 

analysis assumed values 30% higher and 30% lower than the reference case. 

Table 7-4 and Table 7-5 show the Program Administrator Costs for RAP and MAP respectively 

across the sensitivity analysis cases. With a lower net-to-gross ratio, more participants are 

needed to achieve the savings and therefore the program administrator cost increases. In the 

case where the net-to-gross ratio is higher, more savings are achieved without incurring the cost 

of fulfilling as many incentives. For the high case, if the 30% increase resulted in a ratio greater 

than 100%, the amount over 100% is considered spillover. Figure 7-3 and Figure 7-4 compares 

the Program Administrator Costs for the entire portfolio in each of the sensitivity cases.

Table 7-6 shows the cost-effectiveness ratios in each sensitivity case for the RAP Portfolio. Table 

7-7 shows the cost-effectiveness ratios for the MAP Portfolio. With the higher program 

administration costs, the B/C ratio decreases significantly with a 30% reduction in the net-togross ratio, while it increase significantly with a 30% increase.
Sensitivity Analysis

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 7-5

Table 7-4 RAP Program Administrator Cost 

Program

Total Program Administrator Costs (000$)

Base Scenario 30% lower Net-to-Gross Ratio 30% higher Net-to-Gross Ratio

2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018

Residential Total: 27,972 29,043 30,517 39,668 41,197 43,304 21,675 22,498 23,632

Non-Residential Total: 29,455 33,831 35,878 41,622 47,649 50,280 22,903 26,390 28,123

Portfolio Total: 57,427 62,874 66,395 81,290 88,846 93,583 44,578 48,888 51,755

Table 7-5 MAP Program Administrator Cost 

Program

Total Program Administrator Costs (000$)

Base Scenario 30% lower Net-to-Gross Ratio 30% higher Net-to-Gross Ratio

2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018

Residential Total: 46,004 47,946 49,999 65,225 68,000 70,932 35,654 37,148 38,727

Non-Residential Total: 57,984 64,137 67,808 82,101 90,602 95,486 44,997 49,887 52,904

Portfolio Total: 103,988 112,083 117,807 147,327 158,602 166,418 80,652 87,035 91,632

Table 7-6 RAP Cost-Effectiveness Across Sensitivity Cases 

Program

Base Scenario 30% lower Net-to-Gross Ratio 30% higher Net-to-Gross Ratio

TRC Ratio PA/UCT 

Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio TRC Ratio PA/UCT Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio TRC Ratio PA/UCT Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio

Residential Total: 1.11 1.62 4.47 0.53 0.78 1.14 3.13 0.46 1.43 2.10 5.80 0.57

Non-Residential Total: 1.43 2.59 3.84 0.63 1.01 1.86 2.69 0.57 1.83 3.29 4.99 0.66

Portfolio Total: 1.30 2.15 4.04 0.59 0.92 1.53 2.83 0.53 1.67 2.75 5.25 0.63

Table 7-7 MAP Cost-Effectiveness Across Sensitivity Cases 

Program

Base Scenario 30% lower Net-to-Gross Ratio 30% higher Net-to-Gross Ratio

TRC Ratio PA/UCT 

Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio TRC Ratio PA/UCT Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio TRC Ratio PA/UCT Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio

Residential Total: 1.09 1.33 7.54 0.49 0.77 0.94 5.28 0.43 1.41 1.72 9.80 0.54

Non-Residential Total: 1.34 1.87 5.69 0.57 0.95 1.33 3.98 0.51 1.72 2.39 7.40 0.62

Portfolio Total: 1.24 1.65 6.23 0.54 0.88 1.17 4.36 0.48 1.60 2.11 8.10 0.59
Sensitivity Analysis

7-6 www.enernoc.com

Figure 7-3 RAP Program Administrator Costs – Comparison of Sensitivity Cases 

Figure 7-4 MAP Program Administrator Costs – Comparison of Sensitivity Cases 

 -

 20,000

 40,000

 60,000

 80,000

 100,000

 120,000

 140,000

 160,000

 180,000

2016 2017 2018

Total Program Administrator Costs (000$)

Reference Case 30% lower NTG 30% higher NTG

 -

 20,000

 40,000

 60,000

 80,000

 100,000

 120,000

 140,000

 160,000

 180,000

2016 2017 2018

Total Program Administrator Costs (000$)

Reference Case 30% lower NTG 30% higher NTG
EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting A-1

APPENDIX A

MARKET PROFILES

Market profiles describe electricity use by sector, segment, end use and technology in the base 

year of the study (2011). The market profiles are given for average buildings and new vintages. 

As explained in Chapter 3 of Volume 3, a market profile includes the following elements:

• Market size is a representation of the number of customers in the segment. For the 

residential sector, it is number of households. In the commercial sector, it is floor space 

measured in square feet. For the industrial sector, it is number of employees. 

• Saturations define the fraction of buildings with the specific technologies. (e.g., homes 

with electric space heating)

• UEC (unit energy consumption) or EUI (energy-use index) describes the amount 

of energy consumed in the base year by a specific technology in buildings that have the 

technology. We use UECs expressed in kWh/household for the residential sector, and 

EUIs expressed in kWh/square foot or kWh/employee for the commercial and industrial 

sectors respectively.

• Intensity for the residential sector represents the average energy use for the 

technology across all households in the base year. It is computed as the product of the 

saturation and the UEC and is defined as kWh/household for electricity. For the 

commercial and industrial sectors, intensity, computed as the product of the saturation 

and the EUI, represents the average use for the technology across all floor space or all 

employees in the base year.

• Usage is the annual energy use by a technology/end use in the segment. It is the 

product of the market size and intensity and is quantified in GWh for electricity.

The file “1434_Appendix_A_Tables-Market_Profiles.xlsx” presents the following market profiles:

• Residential market profiles by segment

• Commercial market profiles by building type

• Industrial market profile

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APPENDIX B

RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY EQUIPMENT AND MEASURE 

DATA

This appendix presents detailed information for all energy-efficiency measures (equipment and 

non-equipment measures per the LoadMAP taxonomy) that were evaluated as part of this study. 

Several sets of tables are provided.

Measure Descriptions 

Table B-1 and Table B-2 provide brief descriptions for all equipment and non-equipment 

measures that were assessed for potential.

Equipment Measure Data

The tables in the file “1434_Appendix_B_Tables-Residential_Equipment.xlsx” list the detailed 

unit-level data for the equipment measures for each of the housing type segments — Single 

Family, Multi Family, and for existing and new construction, respectively. Savings are in annual 

kWh per household, and incremental costs are in $/household ($/HH), unless noted otherwise. 

The BC ratio shown in the tables are for the first year of the potential analysis (2011), although

the B/C ratio is calculated within LoadMAP for each year of the forecast. The B/C ratio in the 

tables is 1.00 if the measure represents the baseline technology, and zero if the technology is 

not available in 2013. The final data item in these tables is the levelized cost of conserved 

energy, which is defined as the cost of the measure divided by the cumulative amount of energy 

savings accrued over the measure’s lifetime ($/kWh).

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Non-Equipment Measure Data

The tables in the file “1434_Appendix_B_Tables-Residential_Non-Equipment.xlsx” list the detailed 

unit-level data for the non-equipment energy efficiency measures for each of the housing type 

segments and for existing and new construction, respectively. Because these measures can 

produce energy-use savings for multiple end-use loads (e.g., insulation affects heating and 

cooling energy use) savings are expressed as a net percentage of all the relevant, combined enduse loads. Base saturation indicates the percentage of homes in which the measure is already 

installed. Applicability is a factor that accounts for whether the measure can be applied to the 

building. Cost is expressed in $/household. The detailed measure-level tables present the results 

of the benefit/cost (B/C) analysis for the first year of the analysis (2011) although the B/C ratio 

is calculated within LoadMAP for each year of the forecast. These tables also contain the 

levelized cost of conserved energy, which is defined as the cost of the measure divided by the 

cumulative amount of energy savings accrued over the measure’s lifetime. This metric is given in 

terms of $/kWh. 

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Table B-1 Residential Energy Efficiency Equipment Measure Descriptions 

End Use Technology Measure Description

Cooling Central AC

Central air conditioners consist of a refrigeration system using a direct 

expansion cycle. Equipment includes a compressor, an air-cooled 

condenser (located outdoors), an expansion valve, and an evaporator coil. 

A supply fan near the evaporator coil distributes supply air through air 

ducts to the building. Cooling efficiencies vary based on materials used, 

equipment size, condenser type, and system configuration. CACs may be 

unitary (all components housed in a factory-built assembly) or split system 

(an outdoor condenser section and an indoor evaporator section 

connected by refrigerant lines and with the compressor either indoors or 

outdoors). Energy efficiency is rated according to the size of the unit using 

the Seasonal Energy Efficiency Rating (SEER). Ductless systems with 

Variable Refrigerant Flow further improve the operating efficiency. 

Cooling Room AC

Room air conditioners are designed to cool a single room or space. They 

incorporate a complete air-cooled refrigeration and air-handling system in 

an individual package. Room air conditioners come in several forms, 

including window, split-type, and packaged terminal units. Energy 

efficiency is rated according to the size of the unit using the Energy 

Efficiency Rating (EER). 

Cooling / 

Heating

Air-Source Heat 

Pump

A central heat pump consists of components similar to a CAC system, but is 

usually designed to function both as a heat pump and an air conditioner. It 

consists of a refrigeration system using a direct expansion (DX) cycle. 

Equipment includes a compressor, an air-cooled condenser (located 

outdoors), an expansion valve, and an evaporator coil (located in the 

supply air duct near the supply fan) and a reversing valve to change the DX 

cycle from cooling to heating when required. The cooling and heating 

efficiencies vary based on the materials used, equipment size, condenser 

type, and system configuration. Heat pumps may be unitary (all 

components housed in a factory-built assembly) or a split system (an 

outdoor condenser section and an indoor evaporator section connected by 

refrigerant lines, with either outdoors or indoors. A high-efficiency option 

for a ductless mini-split system is also analyzed.

Cooling / 

Heating

Geothermal Heat 

Pump

Geothermal heat pumps are similar to air-source heat pumps, but use the 

ground or groundwater instead of outside air to provide a heat 

source/sink. A geothermal heat pump system generally consists of three 

major subsystems or parts: a geothermal heat pump to move heat between 

the building and the fluid in the earth connection, an earth connection for 

transferring heat between the fluid and the earth, and a distribution 

subsystem for delivering heating or cooling to the building. The system may 

also have a desuperheater to supplement the building's water heater, or a 

full-demand water heater to meet all of the building's hot water needs. 

Heating Electric Room Heat

Resistive heating elements are used to convert electricity directly to heat. 

Conductive fins surrounding the element or another mechanism is used to 

deliver the heat directly to the surrounding room or area. These are 

typically either baseboard or wall-mounted units.

Heating Furnace

Furnaces heat air and distribute the heated air through the building using 

ducts. Efficiency improvements can include: exhaust fan controls, 

electronic ignition (no pilot light), compact size and lighter weight to 

reduce cycling losses, smaller-diameter flue pipe, and sealed combustion. 

Very high efficiency units, or condensing units, condense the water vapor 
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produced in the combustion process and also use the heat from this 

condensation. 

Water 

Heating

Water Heater

For electric hot water heating, the most common type is a storage heater, 

which incorporates an electric heating element, storage tank, outer jacket, 

insulation, and controls in a single unit. Efficient units are characterized by 

a high recovery or thermal efficiency and low standby losses (the ratio of 

heat lost per hour to the content of the stored water). A further efficiency 

gain is available through a heat pump water heater (HPWH), which uses a 

vapor-compression thermodynamic cycle similar to that found in an airconditioner or refrigerator to extract heat from an available source (e.g., 

air) and reject that heat to a higher temperature sink, in this case, the 

water in the water heater. Electric instantaneous water heaters are 

available, but are excluded from this study due to potentially high 

instantaneous demand concerns.

For natural gas hot water heating, the most common type is a storage 

heater, which incorporates a burner, storage tank, outer jacket, insulation, 

and controls in a single unit. Efficient units are characterized by a high 

recovery or thermal efficiency and low standby losses (the ratio of heat lost 

per hour to the content of the stored water). A further efficiency gain is 

available in condensing units, which condense the water vapor produced in 

the combustion process and also use the heat from this condensation. 

Interior 

Lighting Screw-in

Infrared halogen lamps are designed to be a replacement for standards 

incandescent lamps. Also referred to as advanced incandescent lamps, 

these products meet the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) 

lighting standards and are phased in as the baseline technology screw-in 

lamp technology to reflect the timeline over which the EISA lighting 

standards take effect. Compact fluorescent lamps are designed to be a 

replacement for standard incandescent lamps and use about 25% of the 

energy used by standard incandescent lamps to produce the same lumen 

output. They can use either electronic or magnetic ballasts. Integral 

compact fluorescent lamps have the ballast integrated into the base of the 

lamp and have a standard screw-in base that permits installation into 

existing incandescent fixtures. Light-emitting diode (LED) lighting has seen 

recent penetration in specific applications such as traffic lights and exit 

signs. With the potential for extremely high efficiency, LEDs show promise 

to provide general-use lighting for interior spaces. Current models 

commercially available have efficacies comparable to CFLs. However, 

theoretical efficiencies are significantly higher. LED models under 

development are expected to provide improved efficacies.

Interior 

Lighting Linear Fluorescent

T8 fluorescent lamps are smaller in diameter than standard T12 lamps, 

resulting in greater light output per watt. T8 lamps also operate at a lower 

current and wattage, which increases the efficiency of the ballast but 

requires the lamps to be compatible with the ballast. Fluorescent lamp 

fixtures can include a reflector that increases the light output from the 

fixture, and thus make it possible to use a fewer number of lamps in each 

fixture. T5 lamps further increase efficiency by reducing the lamp diameter 

to 5/8”. Light-emitting diode (LED) lighting has seen recent penetration in 

specific applications such as traffic lights and exit signs. With the potential 

for extremely high efficiency, LEDs show promise to provide general-use 

lighting for interior spaces. Current models commercially available have 

efficacies comparable to CFLs. However, theoretical efficiencies are 

significantly higher. LED models under development are expected to 
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provide improved efficacies.

Interior 

Lighting Specialty Lighting

Bulbs that the DOE does not consider conventional and are not covered by 

federal efficiency standards. These include: appliance bulbs, heavy-duty 

bulbs, dimmable bulbs, three-way bulbs, G shape (globe) lamps, candelabra 

base, and others.

Exterior 

Lighting Screw-in

Infrared halogen lamps are designed to be a replacement for standards 

incandescent lamps. Also referred to as advanced incandescent lamps, 

these products meet the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) 

lighting standards and are phased in as the baseline technology screw-in 

lamp technology to reflect the timeline over which the EISA lighting 

standards take effect. Compact fluorescent lamps are designed to be a 

replacement for standard incandescent lamps and use about 25% of the 

energy used by standard incandescent lamps to produce the same lumen 

output. They can use either electronic or magnetic ballasts. Integral 

compact fluorescent lamps have the ballast integrated into the base of the 

lamp and have a standard screw-in base that permits installation into 

existing incandescent fixtures. Light-emitting diode (LED) lighting has seen 

recent penetration in specific applications such as traffic lights and exit 

signs. With the potential for extremely high efficiency, LEDs show promise 

to provide general-use lighting for interior spaces. Current models 

commercially available have efficacies comparable to CFLs. However, 

theoretical efficiencies are significantly higher. LED models under 

development are expected to provide improved efficacies.

Appliances Refrigerator

Energy-efficient refrigerators/freezers incorporate features such as 

improved cabinet insulation, more efficient compressors and evaporator 

fans, defrost controls, mullion heaters, oversized condenser coils, and 

improved door seals. Further efficiency increases can be obtained by 

reducing the volume of refrigerated space, or adding multiple 

compartments to reduce losses from opening doors.

Appliances Second 

Refrigerator

Energy-efficient refrigerators/freezers incorporate features such as 

improved cabinet insulation, more efficient compressors and evaporator 

fans, defrost controls, mullion heaters, oversized condenser coils, and 

improved door seals. Further efficiency increases can be obtained by 

reducing the volume of refrigerated space, or adding multiple 

compartments to reduce losses from opening doors.

Appliances Freezer

Energy-efficient refrigerators/freezers incorporate features such as 

improved cabinet insulation, more efficient compressors and evaporator 

fans, defrost controls, mullion heaters, oversized condenser coils, and 

improved door seals. Further efficiency increases can be obtained by 

reducing the volume of refrigerated space, or adding multiple 

compartments to reduce losses from opening doors.

Appliances Clothes Washer

High efficiency clothes washers use superior designs that require less 

water. Sensors match the hot water needs to the size and soil level of the 

load, preventing energy waste. Further energy and water savings can be 

achieved through advanced technologies such as inverter-drive or 

combination washer-dryer units. MEF is the official energy efficiency 

metric used to compare relative efficiencies of different clothes washers. 

MEF considers the energy used to run the washer, heat the water, and run 

the dryer. The higher the MEF, the more efficient the clothes washer.

Appliances Clothes Dryer An energy-efficient clothes dryer has a moisture-sensing device to 
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terminate the drying cycle rather than using a timer and an energyefficient motor is used for spinning the dryer tub. Application of a heat 

pump cycle for extracting the moisture from clothes leads to additional 

energy savings.

Appliances Dishwasher

High efficiency dishwashers save by using both improved technology for 

the primary wash cycle, and by using less hot water. Construction includes 

more effective washing action, energy-efficient motors, and other 

advanced technology such as sensors that determine the length of the 

wash cycle and the temperature of the water necessary to clean the dishes. 

Appliances Stove

These products have additional insulation in the oven compartment and 

tighter-fitting oven door gaskets and hinges to save energy. Conventional 

ovens must first heat up about 35 pounds of steel and a large amount of air 

before they heat up the food. Higher efficiency options include convection 

ovens, halogen burners, and induction burners.

Appliances Microwave Appliance that heats food with microwave radiation. No high efficiency 

option is modeled.

Electronics Personal 

Computers

Improved power management can significantly reduce the annual energy 

consumption of PCs and monitors in both standby and normal operation. 

ENERGY STAR and Climate Savers labeled products provide increasing level 

of energy efficiency.

Electronics Monitor High efficiency electronics use efficient components and employ 

sleep/power save modes.

Electronics Laptops High efficiency electronics use efficient components and employ 

sleep/power save modes.

Electronics Printer/Fax/Copier High efficiency electronics use efficient components and employ 

sleep/power save modes.

Electronics TVs

In the average home, electronic products consumed significant energy, 

even when they are turn off, to maintain features like clocks, remote 

control, and channel/station memory. ENERGY STAR labeled consumer 

electronics can drastically reduce consumption during standby mode, in 

addition to saving energy through advanced power management during 

normal use. 

Electronics Devices and 

Gadgets

High efficiency electronics can use efficient components and employ 

sleep/power save modes.

Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVR High efficiency electronics can use efficient components and employ 

sleep/power save modes.

Miscellaneous Pool Heater

Efficient pool heaters can make use of heat pump technology to achieve 

significantly higher coefficients of performance in the COP=5.0 range.

Gas pool heaters have a burner to heat water in a loop. Efficiency 

improvements can include: exhaust fan controls, electronic ignition (no 

pilot light), compact size and lighter weight to reduce cycling losses, and 

sealed combustion. Very high efficiency units, or condensing units, 

condense the water vapor produced in the combustion process and also 

use the heat from this condensation. 

Miscellaneous Pool Pump High-efficiency motors and two-speed pumps provide improved energy 

efficiency for this load. 
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Miscellaneous Furnace Fan

In homes heated by a furnace, there is still substantial energy use by the 

fan responsible for moving the hot air throughout the ductwork. 

Application of an Electronically Commutating Motor (ECM) ensures that 

motor speed matches the heating requirements of the system and saves 

energy when compared to a continuously operating standard motor.

Miscellaneous Well Pump

Existing well pumps can achieve efficiency improvements by using 

optimized system components and more efficient motors. Efficiencies: 

Baseline 40% EF, High Efficiency 60% EF

Miscellaneous Hot Tub/Spa High-efficiency motors and two-speed pumps provide improved energy 

efficiency for this load.

Miscellaneous Air 

Purifier/Cleaner

An air purifier (cleaner) meeting the efficiency specifications of ENERGY 

STAR is purchased and installed in place of a model meeting the current 

federal standard.

Miscellaneous Dehumidifier

A dehumidifier meeting the minimum qualifying efficiency standard 

established by the current ENERGY STAR(Version 2.1 or 3.0) is purchased 

and installed in a residential setting in place of a unit that meets the 

minimum federal standard efficiency.

Miscellaneous Miscellaneous Improvement of miscellaneous electricity uses.
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Table B-2 Residential Energy Efficiency Non-Equipment Measure Descriptions 

End Use Measure Description

HVAC (All) Insulation - Ceiling

Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to 

inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative transfer 

modes. Thus, thermal insulation above ceilings can conserve energy by 

reducing the heat loss or gain into attics and/or through roofs. The type of 

building construction defines insulating possibilities. Typical insulating 

materials include: loose-fill (blown) cellulose, loose-fill (blown) fiberglass, and 

rigid polystyrene.

Cooling Insulation - Ducting

Air distribution ducts can be insulated to reduce heating or cooling losses. Best 

results can be achieved by covering the entire surface area with insulation. 

Several types of ducts and duct insulation are available, including flexible duct, 

pre-insulated duct, duct board, duct wrap, tacked, or glued rigid insulation, and 

waterproof hard shell materials for exterior ducts. This analysis assumes that 

installing duct insulation can reduce the temperature drop/gain in ducts by 

50%.

HVAC (All) Insulation -

Foundation

Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to 

inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative transfer 

modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by reducing heat loss or 

gain from a building. The type of building construction defines insulating 

possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose-fill (blown) cellulose, 

loose-fill (blown) fiberglass, and rigid polystyrene. Foundation insulation is 

modeled for new construction / major retrofits only.

HVAC (All) Insulation -

Infiltration Control

Lowering the air infiltration rate by caulking small leaks and weather-stripping 

around window frames, doorframes, power outlets, plumbing, and wall corners 

can provide significant energy savings. Weather-stripping doors and windows 

will create a tight seal and further reduce air infiltration. 

HVAC (All) Insulation - Radiant 

Barrier

Radiant barriers are materials installed to reduce the heat gain in buildings. 

Radiant barriers are made from materials that are highly reflective and have 

low emissivity like aluminum. The closer the emissivity is to 0 the better they 

will perform. Radiant barriers can be placed above the insulation or on the 

roof rafters. 

HVAC (All) Insulation - Wall 

Cavity

Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to 

inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative transfer 

modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by reducing heat loss or 

gain from a building. The type of building construction defines insulating 

possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose-fill (blown) cellulose, 

loose-fill (blown) fiberglass, and rigid polystyrene. Wall insulation is modeled 

for new construction / major retrofits only.

HVAC (All) Insulation - Wall 

Sheathing

Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to 

inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative transfer 

modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by reducing heat loss or 

gain from a building. The type of building construction defines insulating 

possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose-fill (blown) cellulose, 

loose-fill (blown) fiberglass, and rigid polystyrene. Wall sheathing is modeled 

for new construction / major retrofits only.

Cooling Ducting - Repair and 

Sealing

Leakage in unsealed ducts varies considerably because of the differences in 

fabricating machinery used, the methods for assembly, installation 

workmanship, and age of the ductwork. Air leaks from the system to the 

outdoors result in a direct loss proportional to the amount of leakage and the 

difference in enthalpy between the outdoor air and the conditioned air. To 

seal ducts, a wide variety of sealing methods and products exist. Each has a 

relatively short shelf life, and no documented research has identified the aging 

characteristics of sealant applications. 

HVAC (All)

Windows - High 

Efficiency/ENERGY 

STAR

High-efficiency windows, such as those labeled under the ENERGY STAR

Program, are designed to reduce energy use and increase occupant comfort. 

High-efficiency windows reduce the amount of heat transfer through the 
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glazing surface. For example, some windows have a low-E coating, a thin film of 

metallic oxide coating on the glass surface that allows passage of short-wave

solar energy through glass and prevents long-wave energy from escaping. 

Another example is double-pane glass that reduces conductive and convective 

heat transfer. Some double-pane windows are gas-filled (usually argon) to 

further increase the insulating properties of the window.

HVAC (All) Windows - Install 

Reflective Film

Reflective films applied to the window interior help reduce solar gain into the 

space and thus lower cooling energy use.

HVAC (All) Doors - Storm and 

Thermal

Like other components of the shell, doors are subject to several types of heat 

loss: conduction, infiltration, and radiant losses. Similar to a storm window, a 

storm door creates an insulating air space between the storm and primary 

doors. A tight fitting storm door can also help reduce air leakage or infiltration. 

Thermal doors have exceptional thermal insulation properties and also are 

provided with weather-stripping on the doorframe to reduce air leakage.

HVAC (All) Roofs - High 

Reflectivity

The color and material of a building structure surface will determine the 

amount of solar radiation absorbed by that surface and subsequently 

transferred into a building. This is called solar absorptance. By using a living 

roof or a roofing material with a light color (and a lower solar absorptance), the 

roof will absorb less solar radiation and consequently reduce the cooling load. 

Living roofs also reduce stormwater runoff. 

HVAC (All) Attic Fan -

Installation

Attic fans can reduce the need for AC by reducing heat transfer from the attic 

through the ceiling of the house. A well-ventilated attic can be several degrees 

cooler than a comparable, unventilated attic. An option for an attic fan 

equipped with a small solar photovoltaic generator is also modeled.

HVAC (All)

Attic Fan -

Photovoltaic -

Installation

Attic fans can reduce the need for AC by reducing heat transfer from the attic 

through the ceiling of the house. A well-ventilated attic can be several degrees 

cooler than a comparable, unventilated attic. An option for an attic fan 

equipped with a small solar photovoltaic generator is also modeled.

HVAC (All) Whole-House Fan -

Installation

Whole-house fans can reduce the need for AC on moderate-weather days or on 

cool evenings. The fan facilitates a quick air change throughout the entire

house. Several windows must be open to achieve the best results. The fan is 

mounted on the top floor of the house, usually in a hallway ceiling.

HVAC (All) Ceiling Fan -

Installation

Ceiling fans can reduce the need for air conditioning. However, the house 

occupants must also select a ceiling fan with a high-efficiency motor and either 

shutoff the AC system or setup the thermostat temperature of the air 

conditioning system to realize the potential energy savings. Some ceiling fans 

also come with lamps. In this analysis, it is assumed that there are no lamps, 

and installing a ceiling fan will allow occupants to increase the thermostat 

cooling setpoint up by 2°F.

HVAC (All) Thermostat -

Clock/Programmable

A programmable thermostat can be added to most heating/cooling systems. 

They are typically used during winter to lower temperatures at night and in 

summer to increase temperatures during the afternoon. The energy savings 

from this type of thermostat are identical to those of a "setback" strategy with 

standard thermostats, but the convenience of a programmable thermostat 

makes it a much more attractive option. In this analysis, the baseline is 

assumed to have no thermostat setback.

HVAC (All) Home Energy 

Management System

A centralized home energy management system can be used to control and 

schedule cooling, space heating, lighting, and possibly appliances as well. Some 

designs also allow the homeowner to remotely control loads via the Internet.

Cooling Central AC - Early 

Replacement

CAC systems currently on the market are significantly more efficient that older 

units, due to technology improvement and stricter appliance standards. This 

measure incents homeowners to replace an aging but still working unit with a 

new, higher-efficiency one.

Cooling

Central AC -

Maintenance and 

Tune-Up

An air conditioner's filters, coils, and fins require regular cleaning and 

maintenance for the unit to function effectively and efficiently throughout its 

life. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline in 
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performance, requiring the AC unit to use more energy for the same cooling 

load. 

Cooling / 

Heating

Central Heat Pump -

Maintenance

A heat pump's filters, coils, and fins require regular cleaning and maintenance 

for the unit to function effectively and efficiently throughout its life. Neglecting 

necessary maintenance ensures a steady decline in performance while energy 

use steadily increases. 

Cooling Room AC - Removal 

of Second Unit

Homeowners may have a second room AC unit that is extremely inefficient. 

This measure incents homeowners to recycle the second unit and thus also 

eliminates associated electricity use.

Water 

Heating

Water Heater -

Drainwater Heat 

Recovery

Drainwater Heat Recovery is a system in which drain water is used to preheat 

cold water entering the water heater. While these systems themselves are 

relatively inexpensive, upgrading an existing system could be unreasonable 

because of demolition costs. Thus they are modeled for new vintage only.

Water 

Heating

Water Heater -

Faucet Aerators

Water faucet aerators are threaded screens that attach to existing faucets. 

They reduce the volume of water coming out of faucets while introducing air 

into the water stream. This measure provides energy saving by reducing hot 

water use, as well as water conservation for both hot and cold water.

Water 

Heating

Water Heater - LowFlow ShowerheadsSimilar to faucet aerators, low-flow showerheads reduce the consumption of 

hot water, which in turn decreases water heating energy use. 

Water 

Heating

Water Heater - Pipe 

Insulation

Insulating hot water pipes decreases energy losses from piping that distributes 

hot water throughout the building. It also results in quicker delivery of hot 

water and may allow the lowering of the hot water set point, which saves 

energy. The most common insulation materials for this purpose are 

polyethylene and neoprene. 

Water 

Heating

Water Heater -

Timer

These measures use either a programmable thermostat or a timer to adjust the 

water heater setpoint at times of low usage, typically when a home is 

unoccupied.

Water 

Heating

Water Heater -

Desuperheater

A desuperheater can be added to an existing geothermal heat pump system 

(typically installed with the primary function of space heating and cooling) in 

order to draw off a portion of the geothermal heat for water heating purposes. 

The system can either supplement the building's water heater, or be a fulldemand water heater that meets all of the building's hot water needs. 

Water 

Heating

Water Heater - Solar 

System

Solar water heating systems can be used in residential buildings that have an 

appropriate near-south-facing roof or nearby unshaded grounds for installing a 

collector. Although system types vary, in general these systems use a solar 

absorber surface within a solar collector or an actual storage tank. Either a 

heat-transfer fluid or the actual potable water flows through tubes attached to 

the absorber and transfers heat from it. (Systems with a separate heattransfer-fluid loop include a heat exchanger that then heats the potable water.) 

The heated water is stored in a separate preheat tank or a conventional water 

heater tank. If additional heat is needed, it is provided by a conventional 

water-heating system.

Interior 

Lighting

Interior Lighting -

Occupancy Sensors

Occupancy sensors turn lights off when a space is unoccupied. They are 

appropriate for areas with intermittent use, such as bathrooms or storage 

areas. 

Exterior 

Lighting

Exterior Lighting -

Photosensor Control

Photosensor controls turn exterior lighting on or off based on ambient lighting 

levels. Compared with manual operation, this can reduce the operation of 

exterior lighting during daylight hours. 

Exterior 

Lighting

Exterior Lighting -

Photovoltaic 

Installation

Solar photovoltaic generation may be used to power exterior lighting and thus 

eliminate all or part of the electrical energy use. 

Exterior 

Lighting

Exterior Lighting -

Timeclock 

Installation

Lighting timers turn exterior lighting on or off based on a preset schedule. 

Compared with manual operation, this can reduce the operation of exterior 

lighting during daylight hours.

Appliances Refrigerator - Early Refrigerators/freezers currently on the market are significantly more efficient 
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Replacement that older units, due to technology improvement and stricter appliance 

standards. This measure incents homeowners to replace an aging but still 

working unit with a new, higher-efficiency one.

Appliances Refrigerator -

Maintenance

This measure includes repairing and recharging refrigerant lines, cleaning 

condenser coils, and replacing the oil. This reduces energy consumption by 

improving the rate at which the system can compress and cool refrigerant as it 

moves through the system.

Appliances Refrigerator -

Remove Second Unit

Homeowners may have a second refrigerator or freezer that is not used to full 

capacity and that, because of its age, is extremely inefficient. This measure 

incents homeowners to recycle the second unit and thus also eliminates 

associated electricity use.

Appliances Freezer - Remove 

Second Unit

Homeowners may have a second refrigerator or freezer that is not used to full 

capacity and that, because of its age, is extremely inefficient. This measure 

incents homeowners to recycle the second unit and thus also eliminates 

associated electricity use.

Appliances Freezer - Early 

Replacement

Refrigerators/freezers currently on the market are significantly more efficient 

that older units, due to technology improvement and stricter appliance 

standards. This measure incents homeowners to replace an aging but still 

working unit with a new, higher-efficiency one.

Appliances Freezer -

Maintenance

This measure includes repairing and recharging refrigerant lines, cleaning 

condenser coils, and replacing the oil. This reduces energy consumption by 

improving the rate at which the system can compress and cool refrigerant as it 

moves through the system.

Electronics Electronics - Smart 

Power Strips

Representing a growing portion of home electricity consumption, plug-in 

electronics such as set-top boxes, DVD players, gaming systems, digital video 

recorders, and even battery chargers for mobile phones and laptop computers 

are often designed to supply a set voltage. When the units are not in use, this 

voltage could be dropped significantly (~1 W) and thereby generate a 

significant energy savings, assumed for this analysis to be between 4-5% on 

average. These savings are in excess of the measures already discussed for 

computers and televisions. 

Miscellaneous Pool Pump - Timer A pool pump timer allows the pump to turn off automatically, eliminating the 

wasted energy associated with unnecessary pumping. 

Miscellaneous Pool Heater - Solar 

System This measure replaces a conventional pool heater with a solar system.

HVAC (All) ENERGY STAR Home 

Design

ENERGY STAR home design uses an integrated approach to the design of new 

buildings to account for the interaction of building systems. Designs may 

specify the building orientation, building shell, proper sizing of equipment and 

systems, and controls strategies with the goal of optimizing building energy 

efficiency and comfort. Options that may be evaluated and incorporated 

include passive solar strategies, increased thermal mass, natural ventilation, 

energy recovery ventilation, daylighting strategies, and shading strategies; but 

with specific requirements that adhere to the ENERGY STAR standard and 

measurement system. This measure is modeled for new vintage only.

Miscellaneous

Information Based 

Energy Efficiency 

Programs

This measure will include the impacts from behavioral information-based 

programs such as Opower, where the evaluations have isolated valid 

behavioral effects from the technology effects of all the other measures listed 

here.

Miscellaneous Pool/Spa Cover

A pool or spa cover (also referred to as a solar cover or solar blanket) keeps the 

water in the pool warmer by absorbing heat from the sun and transferring the 

heat to the pool water, reducing the energy used by the pool heater.
EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting C-1

APPENDIX C

COMMERCIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY EQUIPMENT AND MEASURE 

DATA

This appendix presents detailed information for all commercial energy-efficiency measures 

(equipment and non-equipment measures per the LoadMAP taxonomy) that were evaluated in 

this study.

Measure Descriptions 

Table C-1 and Table C-2 provide brief descriptions for all equipment and non-equipment 

measures that were assessed for potential.

Equipment Measure Data

The tables in the file “1434_Appendix_C_Tables-Commercial_Equipment.xlsx” list the detailed 

unit-level data (including economic screen results) for commercial equipment measures in 

existing and new buildings. Savings are in annual kWh per square foot, and incremental costs are 

in $/square foot ($/sq.ft.), unless noted otherwise. The BC ratio shown in the tables are for the 

first year of the potential analysis (2011), although the B/C ratio is calculated within LoadMAP for 

each year of the forecast. The B/C ratio in the tables is 1.00 if the measure represents the 

baseline technology, and zero if the technology is not available in 2013. The final data item in 

these tables is the levelized cost of conserved energy, which is defined as the cost of the 

measure divided by the cumulative amount of energy savings accrued over the measure’s 

lifetime ($/kWh).

1434_Appendix_C_T

ables-Commercial_Equ

Non-Equipment Measure Data

The tables in the file “1434_Appendix_C_Tables-Commercial_Non-Equipment.xlsx” list the 

detailed unit-level data (including economic screen results) for commercial non-equipment 

measures in existing and new construction. Because these measures can produce energy-use 

savings for multiple end-use loads (e.g., insulation affects heating and cooling energy use) 

savings are expressed as a net percentage of all the relevant, combined end-use loads. Base 

saturation indicates the percentage of square footage in which the measure is already installed. 

Applicability is a factor that accounts for whether the measure can be applied to the building. 

Cost is expressed in $/building or $/square foot, as indicated in the “unit” column. The detailed 

measure-level tables present the results of the benefit/cost (B/C) analysis for the first year of the 

analysis (2011) although the B/C ratio is calculated within LoadMAP for each year of the forecast.

These tables also contain the levelized cost of conserved energy, which is defined as the cost of 

the measure divided by the cumulative amount of energy savings accrued over the measure’s 

lifetime. This metric is given in terms of $/kWh.

1434_Appendix_C_T

ables-Commercial_Non
Commercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

C-2 www.enernoc.com

Table C-1 Commercial Energy Efficiency Equipment Measure Descriptions 

End Use Technology Measure Description

Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller

A central chiller plant creates chilled water for distribution throughout the 

facility. Because of the wide variety of system types and sizes, savings and cost 

values for efficiency improvements represent an average over screw, 

reciprocating, and centrifugal technologies. Under this simplified approach, 

each central system is characterized by an aggregate efficiency value (inclusive 

of chiller, pumps, and motors), in kW/ton with a further efficiency upgrade 

through the application of variable refrigerant flow technology. 

Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller

A central chiller plant creates chilled water for distribution throughout the 

facility. Water source chillers include heat rejection via a condenser loop and 

cooling tower. Because of the wide variety of system types and sizes, savings 

and cost values for efficiency improvements represent an average over screw, 

reciprocating, and centrifugal technologies. Under this simplified approach, 

each central system is characterized by an aggregate efficiency value (inclusive 

of chiller, pumps, motors, and condenser loop equipment), in kW/ton with a 

further efficiency upgrade through the application of variable refrigerant flow 

technology. 

Cooling Roof Top AC

Packaged cooling systems, such as rooftop units (RTUs), are simple to install 

and maintain, and are commonly used in small and medium-sized commercial 

buildings. Applications range from a single supply system with air intake filters, 

supply fan, and cooling coil, or can become more complex with the addition of 

a return air duct, return air fan, and various controls to optimize performance. 

For packaged RTUs, varying Energy Efficiency Ratios (EER) are modeled, as well 

as a ductless mini-split system. 

Cooling/

Heating PTAC/PTHP

This measure includes efficiency upgrades to other small cooling systems in 

commercial buildings including room AC units, packaged terminal air 

conditioning (PTAC) units, and packaged terminal heat pumps (PTHP).

Cooling / 

Heating

Air-Source Heat 

Pump

For heat pumps, units with increasing EER and COP levels are evaluated, as well 

as a ductless mini-split system. 

Cooling / 

Heating

Geothermal Heat 

Pump For heat pumps, units with increasing EER and COP levels are evaluated.

Heating Electric Furnace

Resistive heating elements are used to convert electricity directly to heat. The 

heat is then delivered by a supply fan and duct system to the regions that 

require heating.

Heating Electric Room Heat

Resistive heating elements are used to convert electricity directly to heat. 

Conductive fins surrounding the element or another mechanism is used to 

deliver the heat directly to the surrounding room or area. These are typically 

either baseboard or wall-mounted units.

Ventilation Ventilation

A variable air volume ventilation system modulates the air flow rate as needed 

based on the interior conditions of the building to reduce fan load, improve 

dehumidification, and reduce energy usage.

Water 

Heating Water Heater

Efficient electric water heaters are characterized by a high recovery or thermal 

efficiency (percentage of delivered electric energy which is transferred to the 

water) and low standby losses (the ratio of heat lost per hour to the content of 

the stored water). Included in the savings associated with high-efficiency 

electric water heaters are timers that allow temperature setpoints to change 

with hot water demand patterns. For example, the heating element could be 

shut off throughout the night, increasing the overall energy factor of the unit. 

In addition, tank and pipe insulation reduces standby losses and therefore 

reduces the demands on the water heater. This analysis considers conventional 

electric water heaters and heat pump water heaters.

For natural gas hot water heating, the most common type is a storage heater, 

which incorporates a burner, storage tank, outer jacket, insulation, and 

controls in a single unit. Efficient units are characterized by a high recovery or 

thermal efficiency and low standby losses (the ratio of heat lost per hour to the 

content of the stored water). A further efficiency gain is available in condensing 
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EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting C-3

End Use Technology Measure Description

units, which condense the water vapor produced in the combustion process 

and also use the heat from this condensation. 

Interior 

Lighting Screw-in This measure evaluates higher-efficiency alternatives for screw-in interior lamps including halogen, CFL, and LED.

Interior 

Lighting High-Bay Fixtures

With the exception of screw-in lighting, commercial lighting efficiency changes 

typically require more than the simple purchase and installation of an 

alternative lamp Restrictions regarding ballasts, fixtures, and circuitry limit the 

potential for direct substitution of one lamp type for another. Also, during the 

buildout for a leased office space, management could decide to replace all 

lamps, ballasts, and fixtures with different configurations. This type of decisionmaking is modeled on a stock turnover basis because of the time between 

opportunities for upgrades. For High-Bay fixtures, alternatives include mercury 

vapor, metal halides, T5 fluorescent high output, and high-pressure sodium.

Interior 

Lighting Linear Fluorescent

With the exception of screw-in lighting, commercial lighting efficiency changes 

typically require more than the simple purchase and installation of an 

alternative lamp restriction regarding ballasts, fixtures, and circuitry limit the 

potential for direct substitution of one lamp type for another. Also, during the 

buildout for a leased office space, management could decide to replace all 

lamps, ballasts, and fixtures with different configurations. This type of decisionmaking is modeled on a stock turnover basis because of the time between 

opportunities for upgrades. For linear fluorescent fixtures, alternatives include 

T12, T8, Super T8, T5, and LED.

Exterior 

Lighting Screw-in This measure evaluates higher-efficiency alternatives for screw-in interior lamps including halogen, CFL, and LED.

Exterior 

Lighting HID Alternatives modeled include metal halides, T8 and T5 high output, high 

pressure sodium, and LEDs

Exterior 

Lighting Linear Fluorescent For linear fluorescent fixtures, alternatives include T12, T8, Super T8, T5, and LED.

Refrigeration Walk-in Refrigerator

These refrigerators can be designed to perform at higher efficiency through a 

combination of compressor equipment upgrades, default temperature settings, 

and defrost patterns. Standard refrigeration compressors typically operate at 

approximately 65% efficiency. High-efficiency models are available that can 

improve compressor efficiency by 15%. Analysis assumes unit with: 140 square 

feet, Cooling capacity of 26,230 BTU/hr.

Refrigeration Reach-in 

Refrigerator

A significant amount of energy in the commercial sector can be attributed to 

"reach-in" units. These stand-alone appliances can range from a residentialstyle refrigerator/freezer unit in an office kitchen or the breakroom of a retail 

store, to the larger reach-in units in foodservice applications. As in the case of 

residential units, these refrigerators can be designed to perform at higher 

efficiency through a combination of compressor equipment upgrades, default 

temperature settings, and defrost patterns. Analysis assumes unit with: 48 

cubic feet, Cooling capacity of 3000 BTU/hr.

Refrigeration Glass Door Display, 

Open Display Case

These refrigerators can be designed to perform at higher efficiency through a 

combination of compressor equipment upgrades, default temperature settings, 

and defrost patterns. Standard refrigeration compressors typically operate at 

approximately 65% efficiency. High-efficiency models are available that can 

improve compressor efficiency by 15%. Analysis assumes unit with: Cooling 

capacity of 20,000 BTU/hr

Refrigeration Icemaker By optimizing the timing of ice production and the type of output to the 

specific application, icemakers are assumed to deliver electricity savings.

Refrigeration Vending Machine High-efficiency vending machines incorporate more efficient compressors and 

lighting.

Food 

Preparation

Ovens, Fryers, Hot 

Food Containers, 

Dishwashers

This set of measures includes high-efficiency fryers, ovens, dishwashers, and 

hot food containers. Less common equipment, such as broilers and steamers, 

and assumed to be modeled with the other more common equipment types. 
Commercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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End Use Technology Measure Description

Office 

Equipment

Desktop Computer, 

Laptop, Monitors

ENERGY STAR labeled computers automatically power down to 15 watts or less 

when not in use and may actually last longer than conventional products 

because they spend a large portion of time in a low-power sleep mode. 

ENERGY STAR labeled computers also generate less heat than conventional 

models.

Office 

Equipment Server

In addition to the "sleep" mode a reductions, servers have additional energysaving opportunities through "virtualization" and other architecture solutions 

that involve optimal matching of computation tasks to hardware requirements

Office 

Equipment Printer/Copier/Fax

ENERGY STAR labeled office equipment saves energy by powering down and 

"going to sleep" when not in use. ENERGY STAR labeled copiers are equipped 

with a feature that allows them to automatically turn off after a period of 

inactivity.

Office 

Equipment POS Terminal

Point-of-sale terminals in retail and supermarket facilities are always on. 

Efficient models incorporate a high-efficiency power supply to reduce energy 

use.

Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors

Includes motors for a variety of non-HVAC uses including vertical 

transportation. Premium efficiency motors can provide savings of 0.5% to 3% 

over standard motors. The savings results from the fact that energy efficient 

motors run cooler than their standard counterparts, resulting in an increase in 

the life of the motor insulation and bearing. In general, an efficient motor is a 

more reliable motor because there are fewer winding failures, longer periods 

between needed maintenance, and fewer forced outages. For example, using 

copper instead of aluminum in the windings, and increasing conductor crosssectional area, lowers a motor’s I2R losses.

Miscellaneous Pool Pump High-efficiency motors and two-speed pumps provide improved energy 

efficiency for this load. 

Miscellaneous Pool Heater

Efficient pool heaters can make use of heat pump technology to achieve 

significantly higher coefficients of performance in the COP=5.0 range.

Gas pool heaters have a burner to heat water in a loop. Efficiency 

improvements can include: exhaust fan controls, electronic ignition (no pilot 

light), compact size and lighter weight to reduce cycling losses, and sealed 

combustion. Very high efficiency units, or condensing units, condense the 

water vapor produced in the combustion process and also use the heat from 

this condensation. 

Miscellaneous Miscellaneous Improvement of miscellaneous electricity uses
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EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting C-5

Table C-2 Commercial Energy Efficiency Non-Equipment Measure Descriptions 

End Use Measure Description

HVAC (All) Insulation - Ceiling

Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to 

inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative 

transfer modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by reducing 

the heat loss or gain of a building. The type of building construction defines 

insulating possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose-fill (blown) 

cellulose; loose-fill (blown) fiberglass; and rigid polystyrene.

HVAC (All) Insulation - Ducting

Air distribution ducts can be insulated to reduce heating or cooling losses. 

Best results can be achieved by covering the entire surface area with 

insulation. Insulation material inhibits the transfer of heat through the airsupply duct. Several types of ducts and duct insulation are available, 

including flexible duct, pre-insulated duct, duct board, duct wrap, tacked, or 

glued rigid insulation, and waterproof hard shell materials for exterior ducts. 

HVAC (All) Insulation - Radiant 

Barrier

Radiant barriers are materials installed to reduce the heat gain in buildings. 

Radiant barriers are made from materials that are highly reflective and have 

low emissivity like aluminum. The closer the emissivity is to 0 the better they 

will perform. Radiant barriers can be placed above the insulation or on the 

roof rafters. 

HVAC (All) InsulationFoundation Below Grade Insulation to R6

HVAC (All) Insulation - Wall 

Cavity

Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to 

inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative 

transfer modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by reducing 

the heat loss or gain of a building. The type of building construction defines 

insulating possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose-fill (blown) 

cellulose; loose-fill (blown) fiberglass; and rigid polystyrene.

HVAC (All) HVAC - Duct Repair 

and Sealing

Leakage in unsealed ducts varies considerably because of the differences in 

fabricating machinery used, the methods for assembly, installation 

workmanship, and age of the ductwork. Air leaks from the system to the 

outdoors result in a direct loss proportional to the amount of leakage and the 

difference in enthalpy between the outdoor air and the conditioned air. To 

seal ducts, a wide variety of sealing methods and products exist. Each has a 

relatively short shelf life, and no documented research has identified the 

aging characteristics of sealant applications. 

HVAC (All) Doors - High 

Efficiency

Like other components of the shell, doors are subject to several types of heat 

loss: conduction, infiltration, and radiant losses. High efficiency doors have 

exceptional thermal insulation properties and tight-fitting, weather-stripping 

on the doorframe to reduce air leakage.

HVAC (All) Windows - High 

Efficiency

High-efficiency windows, such as those labeled under the ENERGY STAR

Program, are designed to reduce a building's energy bill while increasing 

comfort for the occupants at the same time. High-efficiency windows have 

reducing properties that reduce the amount of heat transfer through the 

glazing surface. For example, some windows have a low-E coating, which is a 

thin film of metallic oxide coating on the glass surface that allows passage of 

short-wave solar energy through glass and prevents long-wave energy from 

escaping. Another example is double-pane glass that reduces conductive and 

convective heat transfer. There are also double-pane glasses that are gasfilled (usually argon) to further increase the insulating properties of the 

window.

HVAC (All) Roof - High 

Reflectivity

The color and material of a building structure surface will determine the 

amount of solar radiation absorbed by that surface and subsequently 

transferred into a building. This is called solar absorptance. By using a living 

roof or a roofing material with a light color (and a lower solar absorptance),

the roof will absorb less solar radiation and consequently reduce the cooling 

load. Living roofs also reduce stormwater runoff. 

Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller - Resetting the condenser water temperature to the lowest possible setting 
Commercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

C-6 www.enernoc.com

End Use Measure Description

Condenser Water 

Temperature Reset

allows the cooling tower to generate cooler water whenever possible and 

decreases the temperature lift between the condenser and the evaporator. 

This will generally increase chiller part-load efficiency, though it may require 

increased tower fan energy use.

Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller -

Economizer

Economizers allow outside air (when it is cool and dry enough) to be brought 

into the building space to meet cooling loads instead of using mechanically 

cooled interior air. A dual enthalpy economizer consists of indoor and 

outdoor temperature and humidity sensors, dampers, motors, and motor 

controls. Economizers are most applicable to temperate climates and savings 

will be smaller in extremely hot or humid areas.

Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller -

VSD on Fans

Variable speed drives, which reduce chiller energy use under part load, are 

modeled for both air-cooled and water-cooled chillers.

Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller -

Chilled Water Reset

Chilled water reset controls save energy by improving chiller performance 

through increasing the supply chilled water temperature, which allows 

increased suction pressure during low load periods. Raising the chilled water 

temperature also reduces chilled water piping losses. However, the primary 

savings from the chilled water reset measure results from chiller efficiency 

improvement. This is due partly to the smaller temperature difference 

between chilled water and ambient air, and partly due to the sensitivity of 

chiller performance to suction temperature.

Cooling

Air-Cooled Chiller -

Chilled Water 

Variable-Flow 

System

The part-load efficiency of chilled water loops can be improved substantially 

by varying the flow speed of the delivered water with the building demand 

for cooling. 

Cooling

Air-Cooled Chiller -

High Efficiency 

Cooling Tower Fans

High-efficiency cooling fans utilize efficient components and variable 

frequency drives that improve fan performance by adjusting fan speed and 

rotation as conditions change. 

Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller -

Maintenance

Filters, coils, and fins require regular cleaning and maintenance for the heat 

pump or roof top unit to function effectively and efficiently throughout its 

years of service. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline 

in performance while energy use increases. 

Water- Cooled 

Chiller

Water Cooled Chiller 

Condenser Water 

Temperature Reset

Resetting the condenser water temperature to the lowest possible setting 

allows the cooling tower to generate cooler water whenever possible and 

decreases the temperature lift between the condenser and the evaporator. 

This will generally increase chiller part-load efficiency, though it may require 

increased tower fan energy use.

Water- Cooled 

Chiller

Water Cooled Chiller 

Economizer

Economizers allow outside air (when it is cool and dry enough) to be brought 

into the building space to meet cooling loads instead of using mechanically 

cooled interior air. A dual enthalpy economizer consists of indoor and 

outdoor temperature and humidity sensors, dampers, motors, and motor 

controls. Economizers are most applicable to temperate climates and savings 

will be smaller in extremely hot or humid areas.

Water- Cooled 

Chiller

Water-Cooled Chiller 

VSD on Fans

Variable speed drives, which reduce chiller energy use under part load, are 

modeled for both air-cooled and water-cooled chillers.

Water- Cooled 

Chiller

Water-Cooled 

Chiller-Chiller Water 

reset

Chilled water reset controls save energy by improving chiller performance 

through increasing the supply chilled water temperature, which allows 

increased suction pressure during low load periods. Raising the chilled water 

temperature also reduces chilled water piping losses. However, the primary 

savings from the chilled water reset measure results from chiller efficiency 

improvement. This is due partly to the smaller temperature difference 

between chilled water and ambient air, and partly due to the sensitivity of 

chiller performance to suction temperature.

Water- Cooled 

Chiller

Water- Cooled 

Chiller Variable Flow 

System

The part-load efficiency of chilled water loops can be improved substantially 

by varying the flow speed of the delivered water with the building demand 

for cooling. 

Water- Cooled Water-Cooled Chiller High-efficiency cooling fans utilize efficient components and variable 
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End Use Measure Description

Chiller Water 

Cooled Chiller

High Efficiency 

Cooling Tower Fans

frequency drives that improve fan performance by adjusting fan speed and 

rotation as conditions change.

Water- Cooled 

Chiller

Water-Cooled Chiller 

Maintenance

Filters, coils, and fins require regular cleaning and maintenance for the heat 

pump or roof top unit to function effectively and efficiently throughout its 

years of service. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline 

in performance while energy use increases.

Cooling RTU - Evaporative 

Precooler

Evaporative precooling can improve the performance of air conditioning 

systems, most commonly RTUs. These systems typically use indirect 

evaporative cooling as a first stage to pre-cool outside air. If the evaporative 

system cannot meet the full cooling load, the air steam is further cooled with 

conventional refrigerative air conditioning technology. 

Cooling RTU - Maintenance

Regular cleaning and maintenance enables a roof top unit to function 

effectively and efficiently throughout its years of service. Neglecting 

necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline in performance while 

energy use increases. Maintenance can increase the efficiency of poorly 

performing equipment by as much as 10%.

Heating Space Heating - Heat 

Recovery Ventilator

Heat recovery ventilation uses a counter-flow, air-to-air heat exchanger 

between inbound and outbound air flow to selectively transfer heat and 

reduce space heating loads.

Cooling / 

Heating

Heat Pump -

Maintenance

Regular cleaning and maintenance enables a heat pump to function 

effectively and efficiently throughout its years of service. Neglecting 

necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline in performance while 

energy use increases. Maintenance can increase the efficiency of poorly 

performing equipment by as much as 10%.

Ventilation Ventilation - ECM on 

VAV Boxes

ECM motors are well suited to the variable flow rates of VAV boxes. ECMs are 

a higher efficiency option for the air blowers and maintain efficiency better 

over a wide range of loads.

Ventilation Ventilation - Variable 

Speed Control

Variable speed controls adjust ventilation fans for part-load conditions to 

reduce energy use.

Ventilation Ventilation- CO2 

Controlled

Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels indicate the level of occupancy in a space. This 

measure uses sensors to monitor CO2 levels and controls on the air handling 

system to adjust the amount of outside air accordingly. Ventilation rates are 

thereby controlled based on occupancy, rather than a fixed rate, thus saving 

HVAC energy use.

Water Heating

Water Heater -

Drainwater Heat 

Recovery

Drainwater Heat Recovery is a system in which drain water is used to preheat 

cold water entering the water heater. While these systems themselves are 

relatively inexpensive, upgrading an existing system could be unreasonable 

because of demolition costs. Thus they are modeled for new vintage only.

Water Heating

Water Heater -

Faucet Aerators/Low 

Flow Nozzles

A faucet aerator or low flow nozzle spreads the stream from a faucet helping 

to reduce water usage. The amount of water passing through the aerator is 

measured in gallons per minute (GPM) and the lower the GPM the more 

water the aerator conserves. 

Water Heating

Water Heater - High 

Efficiency Circulation 

Pump

A high efficiency circulation pump uses an electronically commutated motor 

(ECM) to improve motor efficiency over a larger range of partial loads. In 

addition, an ECM allows for improved low RPM performance with greater 

torque and smaller pump dimensions.

Water Heating Water Heater -

Desuperheater

A desuperheater can be added to an existing geothermal heat pump system 

(typically installed with the primary function of space heating and cooling) in 

order to draw off a portion of the geothermal heat for water heating 

purposes. The system can either supplement the building's water heater, or 

be a full-demand water heater that meets all of the building's hot water 

needs. 

Water Heating Water Heater - Solar 

System

Solar water heating systems can be used in residential buildings that have an 

appropriate near-south-facing roof or nearby unshaded grounds for installing 

a collector. Although system types vary, in general these systems use a solar 
Commercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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End Use Measure Description

absorber surface within a solar collector or an actual storage tank. Either a 

heat-transfer fluid or the actual potable water flows through tubes attached 

to the absorber and transfers heat from it. (Systems with a separate heattransfer-fluid loop include a heat exchanger that then heats the potable 

water.) The heated water is stored in a separate preheat tank or a 

conventional water heater tank. If additional heat is needed, it is provided by 

a conventional water-heating system.

Water Heating Water Heater -

Install Timer

These measures use either a programmable thermostat or a timer to adjust 

the water heater setpoint at times of low usage, typically when a home is 

unoccupied.

Water Heating Water Heater - Pipe 

Insulation

Insulating hot water pipes decreases the amount of energy lost during 

distribution of hot water throughout the building. Insulating pipes will result 

in quicker delivery of hot water and allows lowering the water heating set 

point. There are several different types of insulation, the most common being 

polyethylene and neoprene. 

Water Heating Water Heater - Tank 

Blanket/Insulation

Insulation levels on hot water heaters can be increased by installing a 

fiberglass blanket on the outside of the tank. This increase in insulation 

reduces standby losses and thus saves energy. Water heater insulation is 

available either by the blanket or by square foot of fiberglass insulation with 

R-values ranging from 5 to 14. 

Water Heating Water Heater- PreRinse Spray Valve

Pre-rinse valves use a spray of water to remove food waste from dishes prior 

to cleaning in a dishwasher. More efficient spray valves use less water 

thereby reducing water consumption, water heating cost, and waste water 

(sewer) charges. Pre-rinse spray valves include a nozzle, squeeze lever, and 

dish guard bumper. The primary impacts of this measure are water savings. 

Reduced hot water consumption saves either natural gas or electricity, 

depending on the type of energy the hot water heater uses. This measure 

applies to time of sale, retrofit and direct install and appropriate lookup 

tables are included to support these delivery methods.

Water Heating

Water HeaterBooster Water 

Heater

Gas booster heaters are used to supply sanitizing water to a dishwashing 

machine.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting -

Daylighting Controls

Daylighting controls use a photosensor to detect ambient light and adjust or 

turn off electric lights accordingly.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting -

LED Exit Lighting

The lamps inside exit signs represent a significant energy end-use, since they 

usually operate 24 hours per day. Many old exit signs use incandescent 

lamps, which consume approximately 40 watts per sign. The incandescent 

lamps can be replaced with LED lamps that are specially designed for this 

specific purpose. In comparison, the LED lamps consume approximately 2-5 

watts.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting -

Occupancy Sensors

The installation of occupancy sensors allows lights to be turned off during 

periods when a space is unoccupied, virtually eliminating the wasted energy 

due to lights being left on. There are several types of occupancy sensors in 

the market. 

Interior Lighting

Interior Lighting -

Timeclocks and 

Timers

In many cases lighting remains on at night and during weekends. A simple 

timer can set a schedule for turning lights off to reduce operating hours.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting -

Task Lighting

Individual work areas can use task lighting instead of brightly lighting the 

entire area. Significant energy savings can be realized by focusing light 

directly where it is needed and lowering the general lighting level. An 

example of task lighting is the common desk lamp. A 25W desk lamp can be 

installed in place of a typical lamp in a fixture.

Interior Lighting Interior Fluorescent -

Bi-Level Fixture

Bi-level fixtures have the ability to reduce light output to a lower level, given 

a control strategy that is based on a timer, occupancy sensor, motion sensor, 

or manual switch. 

Interior Lighting Interior Fluorescent - While sometimes included in lighting retrofit projects, delamping is often 
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End Use Measure Description

Delamp and Install 

Reflectors

performed as a separate energy efficiency measure in which a lighting 

engineer analyzes the lighting provided by current systems compared to the 

requirements of building occupants. This often leads to the removal of 

unnecessary lamps corresponding to an overall reduction in energy usage. In 

addition, installing a reflector in each fixture can improve light distribution 

from the remaining lamps. 

Exterior 

Lighting

Exterior Lighting - BiLevel Fixture

Bi-level fixtures have the ability to reduce light output to a lower level, given 

a control strategy that is based on a timer, occupancy sensor, motion sensor, 

or manual switch. 

Exterior 

Lighting

Exterior Lighting -

Daylighting Controls

Daylighting controls use a photosensor to detect ambient light and adjust or 

turn off electric lights accordingly.

Exterior 

Lighting

Exterior Lighting -

Photovoltaic 

Installation

Solar photovoltaic generation may be used to power exterior lighting and 

thus eliminate all or part of the electrical energy use. 

Refrigeration Refrigerator - AntiSweat Heater

Anti-sweat heaters are used in virtually all low-temperature display cases and 

many medium-temperature cases to control humidity and prevent the 

condensation of water vapor on the sides and doors and on the products 

contained in the cases. Typically, these heaters stay on all the time, even 

though they only need to be on about half the time. Anti-sweat heater 

controls can come in the form of humidity sensors or time clocks.

Refrigeration Refrigerator- Auto 

Door Closer 

Anti-sweat heaters are used in virtually all low-temperature display cases and 

many medium-temperature cases to control humidity and prevent the 

condensation of water vapor on the sides and doors and on the products 

contained in the cases. Typically, these heaters stay on all the time, even 

though they only need to be on about half the time. Anti-sweat heater 

controls can come in the form of humidity sensors or time clocks.

Refrigeration Refrigerator -

Decommissioning

Early retirement, removal, and recycling or older, little used refrigerators and 

freezers removes the energy use of these inefficient, aging units.

Refrigeration Refrigerator -

Demand Defrost

Units can be designed to perform at higher efficiency with a sensing and 

control system that runs defrost cycles based on demand/only when 

necessary.

Refrigeration Refrigerator - Door 

Gasket Replacement

This measure involves replacing aging door gaskets that no longer adequately 

seal reach-in refrigerators or glass door display cases.

Refrigeration RefrigeratorEconomizer

Economizers save energy in walk-in coolers by bringing in outside air when it 

is sufficiently cool, rather than operating the compressor. In addition there is 

a control installed to cycle evaporator fans on and off as opposed to 

constantly running while economizer is running. In order for this 

characterization to apply, the efficient equipment is assumed to be a walk-in 

cooler with a refrigeration economizer

Refrigeration

Refrigerator -

Evaporator Fan 

Controls

Evaporator fan motor controls allow for part load use or demand scheduling 

based on variable refrigeration load requirements, reducing energy 

consumption.

Refrigeration

Refrigeration- High 

Efficiency Evaporator 

Fan Motors

Electronically commutated motors (ECM) operate at variable speeds.

Refrigeration

Refrigerator -

Floating Head 

Pressure

Floating head pressure control allows the pressure in the condenser to 

"float" with ambient temperatures. This method reduces refrigeration 

compression ratios, improves system efficiency and extends the compressor 

life. The greatest savings with a floating head pressure approach occurs when 

the ambient temperatures are low, such as in the winter season. Floating 

head pressure control is most practical for new installations. However, 

retrofits installation can be completed with some existing refrigeration 

systems. Installing floating head pressure control increases the capacity of 

the compressor when temperatures are low, which may lead to short cycling.

Refrigeration Refrigerator - Strip Strip curtains at the entrances to large walk-in coolers or freezers, such as 
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End Use Measure Description

Curtain those used in supermarkets; reduce air transfer between the refrigerated 

space and the surrounding space. 

Refrigeration

Refrigerator - High 

Efficiency 

Compressor

Standard compressors typically operate at approximately 65% efficiency. 

High-efficiency models are available that can improve compressor efficiency 

by 15%.

Refrigeration

Refrigerator -

Variable Speed 

Compressor

The part-load efficiency of drive systems can be improved by varying the 

speed of the motor drive. An additional benefit of variable-speed controls is 

the ability to start and stop the motor and process gradually, thus extending 

the life of the motor and associated machinery. 

Refrigeration Vending MachineController

Cold beverage vending machines usually operate 24 hours a day regardless of 

whether the surrounding area is occupied or not. The result is that the 

vending machine consumes energy unnecessarily, because it will operate all 

night to keep the beverage cold even when there would be no customers 

until the next morning. A vending machine controller can reduce energy 

consumption without compromising the temperature of the vended product. 

The controller uses an infrared sensor to monitor the surrounding area's 

occupancy and will power down the vending machine when the area is 

unoccupied. It will also monitor the room's temperature and will re-power 

the machine at one to three hour intervals independent of occupancy to 

ensure that the product stays cold.

Refrigeration Refrigerator - eCube

The eCube consists of a solid, waxy food simulant that is fitted around a 

thermostat sensor that would otherwise measure air temperature. The 

refrigeration controls therefore attempt to regulate the temperature of food, 

which changes more slowly and gradually than air, thereby reducing the 

frequency of refrigeration cycles. 

Refrigeration Grocery- Display 

Case- LED Lighting

High-efficiency LED display case lighting not only reduces direct lighting 

energy use, but also reduce internal heat gains to the case from lights that 

must be removed by the refrigeration system.

Refrigeration Grocery- Display 

Case Motion Sensors

Motion sensors reduce lighting load when area around display case is 

unoccupied to save energy on lighting.

Refrigeration Grocery- ECM’s for 

Display Cases

Replacement of shaded-pole evaporator fan motors with ECM motors in 

display cases allows for variable refrigeration loads to be handled. Reductions 

come from increased motor efficiency and the reduction of heating load.

Refrigeration

Grocery- Open 

Display Case- Night 

Covers 

Night covers can be used on open refrigeration cases when a facility is closed 

or few customers are in the store.

Food 

Preparation

Cooking Exhaust 

Hoods with Sensor 

Control 

Improved exhaust hoods involve installing variable-speed controls on 

commercial kitchen hoods. These controls provide ventilation based on 

actual cooking loads. When grills, broilers, stoves, fryers or other kitchen 

appliances are not being used, the controls automatically sense the reduced 

load and decrease the fan speed accordingly. This results in lower energy 

consumption because the system is only running as needed rather than at 

100% capacity at all times.

Office 

Equipment

Office Equipment -

Plug Load Occupancy 

Sensors

Occupancy sensors can control power strips and thus turn off energy used by 

plug loads, such as task lights, when an office is unoccupied.

HVAC (All) Energy Management 

System

An energy management system (EMS) allows managers/owners to monitor 

and control the major energy-consuming systems within a commercial 

building. At the minimum, the EMS can be used to monitor and record 

energy consumption of the different end-uses in a building, and can control 

operation schedules of the HVAC and lighting systems. The monitoring 

function helps building managers/owners to identify systems that are 

operating inefficiently so that actions can be taken to correct the problem. 

The EMS can also provide preventive maintenance scheduling that will 

reduce the cost of operations and maintenance in the long run. The control 

functionality of the EMS allows the building manager/owner to operate 
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End Use Measure Description

building systems from one central location. The operation schedules set via 

the EMS help to prevent building systems from operating during unwanted or 

unoccupied periods. This analysis assumes that this measure is limited to 

buildings with a central HVAC system.

HVAC (All) Thermostat -

Clock/Programmable

A programmable thermostat can be added to most heating/cooling systems. 

They are typically used during winter to lower temperatures at night and in 

summer to increase temperatures during the afternoon. There are twosetting models, and well as models that allow separate programming for each 

day of the week. The energy savings from this type of thermostat are 

identical to those of a "setback" strategy with standard thermostats, but the 

convenience of a programmable thermostat makes it a much more attractive

option. In this analysis, the baseline is assumed to have no thermostat 

setback.

Miscellaneous Lodging- Guest 

Room Controls

Hotel guestrooms can be fitted with occupancy controls that turn off energyusing equipment when the guest is not using the room. The occupancy 

controls comes in several forms, but this analysis assumes the simplest kind, 

which is a simple switch near the room’s entry where the guest can deposit 

their room key or card. If the key or card is present, then lights, TV, and air 

conditioning can receive power and operate. When the guest leaves and 

takes the key, all equipment shuts off.

HVAC, Lighting HVAC - Occupancy 

Sensors

Occupancy sensors turn off or adjust HVAC settings when a space is 

unoccupied. 

HVAC, Lighting Commissioning -

HVAC, Lighting

For new construction and major renovations, commissioning ensures that 

building systems are properly designed, specified, and installed to meet the 

design intent and provide high-efficiency performance. Commissioning 

begins during the design process.

HVAC, Lighting Retrocommissioning 

- HVAC, Lighting

In existing buildings, the retrocommissioning process identifies low-cost or no 

cost measures, including controls adjustments, to improve building 

performance and reduce operating costs. Retrocommissioning addresses 

HVAC, lighting, DHW, and other major building systems.

HVAC (All) Advanced New 

Construction Designs

Advanced new construction designs use an integrated approach to the design 

of new buildings to account for the interaction of building systems. Designs 

may specify the building orientation, building shell, proper sizing of 

equipment and systems, and controls strategies with the goal of optimizing 

building energy efficiency and comfort. Options that may be evaluated and 

incorporated include passive solar strategies, increased thermal mass, 

natural ventilation, energy recovery ventilation, daylighting strategies, and 

shading strategies. This measure is modeled for new vintage only.

HVAC, Lighting Custom Measures

Custom measures may be included in the analysis to serve as a “catch all” for 

measures for which costs and savings are not easily quantified and that could 

be part of a custom program. Typical costs and energy savings are assumed 

such that the measures pass the economic screen. 

Electronics Electronics- Smart 

Power Strip

This measure relates to Controlled Power Strips (or Smart Strips) which are 

multi-plug power strips with the ability to automatically disconnect specific 

connected loads depending upon the power draw of a control load, also 

plugged into the strip. Power is disconnected from the switched (controlled) 

outlets when the control load power draw is reduced below a certain 

adjustable threshold, thus turning off the appliances plugged into the 

switched outlets. By disconnecting, the standby load of the controlled 

devices, the overall load of a centralized group of equipment (i.e. 

entertainment centers and home office) can be reduced. Uncontrolled 

outlets are also provided that are not affected by the control device and so 

are always providing power to any device plugged into it.

Electronics Electronics- Monitor 

Power Management EZ Save Monitor Power Management Software
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End Use Measure Description

Miscellaneous Pool Heater - Solar This measure replaces a conventional pool heater with a solar system.

Miscellaneous Pool Pump - Timer A pool pump timer allows the pump to turn off automatically, eliminating the 

wasted energy associated with unnecessary pumping. 

Miscellaneous

Non-HVAC Motors -

Variable Speed 

Control

The part-load efficiency of motors can be improved by varying the speed of 

the motor drive. There are two major types of variable speed controls: 

mechanical and electronic. An additional benefit of variable-speed controls is 

the ability to start and stop the motor gradually, thus extending the life of 

the motor and associated machinery. This analysis assumes that electronic 

variable speed controls are installed.
EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting D-1

APPENDIX D

INDUSTRIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY EQUIPMENT AND MEASURE 

DATA

This appendix presents detailed information for industrial energy-efficiency measures (equipment

and other measures per the LoadMAP taxonomy) that were evaluated in this study.

Measure Descriptions 

Table D-1 and Table D-2 provide brief descriptions for all equipment and non-equipment

measures that were assessed for potential. 11

Equipment Measure Data

The tables in the file “1434_Appendix_D_Tables-Industrial_Equipment.xlsx” list the detailed unitlevel data (including economic screen results) for industrial energy-efficiency equipment 

measures in existing and new buildings. Savings are in annual kWh per employee, and 

incremental costs are in $/employee ($/empl.), unless noted otherwise. The BC ratio shown in 

the tables are for the first year of the potential analysis (2011), although the B/C ratio is 

calculated within LoadMAP for each year of the forecast. The B/C ratio in the tables is 1.00 if the 

measure represents the baseline technology, and zero if the technology is not available in 2013. 

The final data item in these tables is the levelized cost of conserved energy, which is defined as 

the cost of the measure divided by the cumulative amount of energy savings accrued over the 

measure’s lifetime ($/kWh).

1434_Appendix_D_T

ables-Industrial_Equip

Non-Equipment Measure Data

The tables in the file “1434_Appendix_D_Tables-Industrial_Non-Equipment.xlsx” list the detailed 

unit-level data (including economic screen results) for industrial energy-efficiency non-equipment 

measures in existing and new buildings. Because these measures can produce energy-use

savings for multiple end-use loads (e.g., insulation affects heating and cooling energy use) 

savings are expressed as a net percentage of all the relevant, combined end-use loads. Base 

saturation indicates the percentage of square footage in which the measure is already installed. 

Applicability is a factor that accounts for whether the measure can be applied to the building. 

Cost is expressed in $/building or $/square foot, as indicated in the “unit” column. The detailed 

measure-level tables present the results of the benefit/cost (B/C) analysis for the first year of the 

analysis (2011) although the B/C ratio is calculated within LoadMAP for each year of the forecast.

These tables also contain the levelized cost of conserved energy, which is defined as the cost of 

the measure divided by the cumulative amount of energy savings accrued over the measure’s 

lifetime. This metric is given in terms of $/kWh.

1434_Appendix_D_T

ables-Industrial_Non-

 

11 Measure Description Source: EnerNOC internal databases
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D-2 www.enernoc.com

Table D-1 Industrial Energy Efficiency Equipment Measure Descriptions 

End Use Technology Measure Description

Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller

A central chiller plant creates chilled water for distribution throughout the 

facility. Because of the wide variety of system types and sizes, savings and cost 

values for efficiency improvements represent an average over screw, 

reciprocating, and centrifugal technologies. Under this simplified approach, 

each central system is characterized by an aggregate efficiency value (inclusive 

of chiller, pumps, and motors), in kW/ton with a further efficiency upgrade 

through the application of variable refrigerant flow technology. 

Cooling Water-Cooled 

Chiller

A central chiller plant creates chilled water for distribution throughout the 

facility. Water source chillers include heat rejection via a condenser loop and 

cooling tower. Because of the wide variety of system types and sizes, savings 

and cost values for efficiency improvements represent an average over screw, 

reciprocating, and centrifugal technologies. Under this simplified approach, 

each central system is characterized by an aggregate efficiency value (inclusive 

of chiller, pumps, motors, and condenser loop equipment), in kW/ton with a 

further efficiency upgrade through the application of variable refrigerant flow 

technology. 

Cooling Roof Top AC

Packaged cooling systems, such as rooftop units (RTUs), are simple to install 

and maintain, and are commonly used in small and medium-sized commercial 

buildings. Applications range from a single supply system with air intake filters, 

supply fan, and cooling coil, or can become more complex with the addition of 

a return air duct, return air fan, and various controls to optimize performance. 

For packaged RTUs, varying Energy Efficiency Ratios (EER) are modeled, as well 

as a ductless mini-split system. 

Cooling/

Heating PTAC/PTHP

This measure includes efficiency upgrades to other small cooling systems in 

commercial buildings including room AC units, packaged terminal air 

conditioning (PTAC) units, and packaged terminal heat pumps (PTHP).

Cooling / 

Heating

Air-Source Heat 

Pump

For heat pumps, units with increasing EER and COP levels are evaluated, as well 

as a ductless mini-split system. 

Cooling / 

Heating

Geothermal Heat 

Pump For heat pumps, units with increasing EER and COP levels are evaluated.

Heating Electric Furnace

Resistive heating elements are used to convert electricity directly to heat. The 

heat is then delivered by a supply fan and duct system to the regions that 

require heating.

Heating Electric Room Heat

Resistive heating elements are used to convert electricity directly to heat. 

Conductive fins surrounding the element or another mechanism is used to 

deliver the heat directly to the surrounding room or area. These are typically 

either baseboard or wall-mounted units.

Ventilation Ventilation

A variable air volume ventilation system modulates the air flow rate as needed 

based on the interior conditions of the building to reduce fan load, improve 

dehumidification, and reduce energy usage.

Interior 

Lighting Screw-in This measure evaluates higher-efficiency alternatives for screw-in interior lamps including halogen, CFL, and LED.

Interior 

Lighting High-Bay Fixtures

With the exception of screw-in lighting, industrial lighting efficiency changes 

typically require more than the simple purchase and installation of alternative 

lamp restrictions regarding ballasts, fixtures, and circuitry limit the potential for 

direct substitution of one lamp type for another. Also, during the buildout for a 

leased office space, management could decide to replace all lamps, ballasts, 

and fixtures with different configurations. This type of decision-making is 

modeled on a stock turnover basis because of the time between opportunities 

for upgrades. For High-Bay fixtures, alternatives include mercury vapor, metal 

halides, T5 fluorescent high output, and high-pressure sodium.

Interior 

Lighting Linear Fluorescent

With the exception of screw-in lighting, industrial lighting efficiency changes 

typically require more than the simple purchase and installation of alternative 

lamp restrictions regarding ballasts, fixtures, and circuitry limit the potential for 
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End Use Technology Measure Description

direct substitution of one lamp type for another. Also, during the buildout for a 

leased office space, management could decide to replace all lamps, ballasts, 

and fixtures with different configurations. This type of decision-making is 

modeled on a stock turnover basis because of the time between opportunities 

for upgrades. For linear fluorescent fixtures, alternatives include T12, T8, Super 

T8, T5, and LED.

Exterior 

Lighting Screw-in This measure evaluates higher-efficiency alternatives for screw-in interior lamps including halogen, CFL, and LED.

Exterior 

Lighting HID Alternatives modeled include metal halides, T8 and T5 high output, high 

pressure sodium, and LEDs

Exterior 

Lighting Linear Fluorescent For linear fluorescent fixtures, alternatives include T12, T8, Super T8, T5, and LED.

Process Process 

Electrochemical

Electrochemical processes deal with chemical reactions in solution driven by 

electricity applied at a cathode and anode.

Process Other Process This category is a "catch all" for the many unique process applications in the 

broader industrial sector.

Process Process Cooling Industrial process where cooling is applied

Process Process 

Refrigeration Industrial refrigeration process

Process Process Heating Industrial process where heating is applied

Motors

Pumps, Fans & 

Blowers, 

Compressed Air, 

Conveyors, Material 

Handling, Material 

Processing

Premium efficiency motors reduce the amount of lost energy going into heat 

rather than power. Since less heat is generated, less energy is needed to cool 

the motor with a fan. The initial cost of energy efficient motors is generally 

higher than for standard motors; however their life-cycle costs can make them 

far more economical because of savings they generate in operating expense. 

The fact that energy efficient motors run cooler than their standard 

counterparts also results in an increase in the life of the motor insulation and 

bearing. High efficiency units use copper instead of aluminum in the windings 

and increased conductor cross-sectional area to lower a motor’s I2R losses. 

Miscellaneous Miscellaneous Improvement of miscellaneous electric uses.
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Table D-2 Industrial Energy Efficiency Non-Equipment Measure Descriptions 

End Use Measure Description

HVAC (All) Insulation - Ceiling

Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to 

inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative 

transfer modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by reducing the 

heat loss or gain of a building. The type of building construction defines 

insulating possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose-fill (blown) 

cellulose; loose-fill (blown) fiberglass; and rigid polystyrene.

HVAC (All) Insulation - Ducting

Air distribution ducts can be insulated to reduce heating or cooling losses. Best 

results can be achieved by covering the entire surface area with insulation. 

Insulation material inhibits the transfer of heat through the air-supply duct. 

Several types of ducts and duct insulation are available, including flexible duct, 

pre-insulated duct, duct board, duct wrap, tacked, or glued rigid insulation, and 

waterproof hard shell materials for exterior ducts. 

HVAC (All) Insulation - Wall 

Cavity

Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to 

inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative 

transfer modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by reducing the 

heat loss or gain of a building. The type of building construction defines 

insulating possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose-fill (blown) 

cellulose; loose-fill (blown) fiberglass; and rigid polystyrene.

HVAC (All) HVAC - Duct Repair 

and Sealing

Leakage in unsealed ducts varies considerably because of the differences in 

fabricating machinery used, the methods for assembly, installation 

workmanship, and age of the ductwork. Air leaks from the system to the 

outdoors result in a direct loss proportional to the amount of leakage and the 

difference in enthalpy between the outdoor air and the conditioned air. To 

seal ducts, a wide variety of sealing methods and products exist. Each has a 

relatively short shelf life, and no documented research has identified the aging 

characteristics of sealant applications. 

Air-Cooled 

Chiller

Air-Cooled Chiller -

Economizer

Economizers allow outside air (when it is cool and dry enough) to be brought 

into the building space to meet cooling loads instead of using mechanically 

cooled interior air. A dual enthalpy economizer consists of indoor and outdoor 

temperature and humidity sensors, dampers, motors, and motor controls. 

Economizers are most applicable to temperate climates and savings will be 

smaller in extremely hot or humid areas.

Air-Cooled 

Chiller

Air-Cooled Chiller -

Efficient Mechanical 

Layout

Improvements to layout and placement of chiller equipment, for example to 

enable unobstructed access to cooling tower airflow or minimize the length of 

refrigerant run between cooling tower and chiller head unit. 

Air-Cooled 

Chiller

Air-Cooled Chiller -

Maintenance

Filters, coils, and fins require regular cleaning and maintenance for the heat 

pump or roof top unit to function effectively and efficiently throughout its 

years of service. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline in 

performance while energy use increases. 

Air-Cooled 

Chiller

Air-Cooled Chiller -

Chilled Water Reset

Chilled water reset controls save energy by improving chiller performance 

through increasing the supply chilled water temperature, which allows 

increased suction pressure during low load periods. Raising the chilled water 

temperature also reduces chilled water piping losses. However, the primary 

savings from the chilled water reset measure results from chiller efficiency 

improvement. This is due partly to the smaller temperature difference 

between chilled water and ambient air, and partly due to the sensitivity of 

chiller performance to suction temperature.

Air-Cooled 

Chiller

Air-Cooled Chiller -

Chilled Water 

Variable-Flow 

System

The part-load efficiency of chilled water loops can be improved substantially by 

varying the flow speed of the delivered water with the building demand for 

cooling. 

Air-Cooled 

Chiller

Air-Cooled Chiller -

Condenser Water 

Temperature Reset

Resetting the condenser water temperature to the lowest possible setting 

allows the cooling tower to generate cooler water whenever possible and 

decreases the temperature lift between the condenser and the evaporator. 

This will generally increase chiller part-load efficiency, though it may require 
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End Use Measure Description

increased tower fan energy use.

Air-Cooled 

Chiller

Air-Cooled Chiller -

High Efficiency 

Cooling Tower Fans

High-efficiency cooling fans utilize efficient components and variable frequency 

drives that improve fan performance by adjusting fan speed and rotation as 

conditions change. 

Air-Cooled 

Chiller

Air-Cooled Chiller -

VSD on Fans

Variable speed drives, which reduce chiller energy use under part load, are 

modeled for both air-cooled and water-cooled chillers.

Water-Cooled 

Chiller

Water-Cooled Chiller 

Economizer

Economizers allow outside air (when it is cool and dry enough) to be brought 

into the building space to meet cooling loads instead of using mechanically 

cooled interior air. A dual enthalpy economizer consists of indoor and outdoor 

temperature and humidity sensors, dampers, motors, and motor controls. 

Economizers are most applicable to temperate climates and savings will be 

smaller in extremely hot or humid areas.

Water-Cooled 

Chiller

Water Cooled 

Chiller-Efficient 

Mechanical Layout

Improvements to layout and placement of chiller equipment, for example to 

enable unobstructed access to cooling tower airflow or minimize the length of 

refrigerant run between cooling tower and chiller head unit. 

Water-Cooled 

Chiller

Water Cooled Chiller 

Maintenance

Filters, coils, and fins require regular cleaning and maintenance for the heat 

pump or roof top unit to function effectively and efficiently throughout its 

years of service. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline in 

performance while energy use increases. 

Water-Cooled 

Chiller

Water Cooled 

Chiller-Chilled Water 

Reset

Chilled water reset controls save energy by improving chiller performance 

through increasing the supply chilled water temperature, which allows 

increased suction pressure during low load periods. Raising the chilled water 

temperature also reduces chilled water piping losses. However, the primary 

savings from the chilled water reset measure results from chiller efficiency 

improvement. This is due partly to the smaller temperature difference 

between chilled water and ambient air, and partly due to the sensitivity of 

chiller performance to suction temperature.

Water-Cooled 

Chiller

Water Cooled 

Chiller-Variable Flow 

System

The part-load efficiency of chilled water loops can be improved substantially by 

varying the flow speed of the delivered water with the building demand for 

cooling. 

Water-Cooled 

Chiller

Water Cooled Chiller 

Condenser Water 

Temperature Reset

Resetting the condenser water temperature to the lowest possible setting 

allows the cooling tower to generate cooler water whenever possible and 

decreases the temperature lift between the condenser and the evaporator. 

This will generally increase chiller part-load efficiency, though it may require 

increased tower fan energy use.

Water-Cooled 

Chiller

Water Cooled Chiller 

High Efficiency 

Cooling Tower Fans

High-efficiency cooling fans utilize efficient components and variable frequency 

drives that improve fan performance by adjusting fan speed and rotation as 

conditions change.

Water-Cooled 

Chiller

Water Cooled Chiller 

VSD on Fans

Variable speed drives, which reduce chiller energy use under part load, are 

modeled for both air-cooled and water-cooled chillers.

Roof Top AC RTU - Maintenance

Regular cleaning and maintenance enables a roof top unit to function 

effectively and efficiently throughout its years of service. Neglecting necessary 

maintenance leads to a steady decline in performance while energy use 

increases. Maintenance can increase the efficiency of poorly performing 

equipment by as much as 10%.

Cooling / 

Heating

Heat Pump -

Maintenance

Regular cleaning and maintenance enables a heat pump to function effectively 

and efficiently throughout its years of service. Neglecting necessary 

maintenance leads to a steady decline in performance while energy use 

increases. Maintenance can increase the efficiency of poorly performing 

equipment by as much as 10%.

HVAC (All) Roofs - High 

Reflectivity

The color and material of a building structure surface will determine the 

amount of solar radiation absorbed by that surface and subsequently 

transferred into a building. This is called solar absorptance. By using a living 

roof or a roofing material with a light color (and a lower solar absorptance), the 

roof will absorb less solar radiation and consequently reduce the cooling load. 
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End Use Measure Description

Living roofs also reduce stormwater runoff. 

HVAC (All) Energy Management 

System

An energy management system (EMS) allows managers/owners to monitor and 

control the major energy-consuming systems within a commercial building. At 

the minimum, the EMS can be used to monitor and record energy consumption 

of the different end-uses in a building, and can control operation schedules of 

the HVAC and lighting systems. The monitoring function helps building 

managers/owners to identify systems that are operating inefficiently so that 

actions can be taken to correct the problem. The EMS can also provide 

preventive maintenance scheduling that will reduce the cost of operations and 

maintenance in the long run. The control functionality of the EMS allows the 

building manager/owner to operate building systems from one central 

location. The operation schedules set via the EMS help to prevent building 

systems from operating during unwanted or unoccupied periods. This analysis 

assumes that this measure is limited to buildings with a central HVAC system.

HVAC (All) Thermostat -

Clock/Programmable

A programmable thermostat can be added to most heating/cooling systems. 

They are typically used during winter to lower temperatures at night and in 

summer to increase temperatures during the afternoon. There are two-setting 

models, and well as models that allow separate programming for each day of 

the week. The energy savings from this type of thermostat are identical to 

those of a "setback" strategy with standard thermostats, but the convenience 

of a programmable thermostat makes it a much more attractive option. In this 

analysis, the baseline is assumed to have no thermostat setback.

Interior 

Lighting

Interior Lighting -

Occupancy Sensors

The installation of occupancy sensors allows lights to be turned off during 

periods when a space is unoccupied, virtually eliminating the wasted energy 

due to lights being left on. There are several types of occupancy sensors in the 

market. 

Interior 

Lighting

Interior Lighting -

Skylights

Addition of transparent windows/fixtures in the roof to allow daylight to enter 

and reduce the need for powered lighting.

Interior 

Lighting

Interior Lighting -

Time Clocks and 

Timers

In many cases lighting remains on at night and during weekends. A simple 

timer can set a schedule for turning lights off to reduce operating hours.

Interior 

Lighting

Interior Lighting -

LED Exit Lighting

The lamps inside exit signs represent a significant energy end-use, since they 

usually operate 24 hours per day. Many old exit signs use incandescent lamps, 

which consume approximately 40 watts per sign. The incandescent lamps can 

be replaced with LED lamps that are specially designed for this specific 

purpose. In comparison, the LED lamps consume approximately 2-5 watts.

Interior 

Lighting

Interior Lighting -

Daylighting Controls

Daylighting controls use a photosensor to detect ambient light and adjust or 

turn off electric lights accordingly.

Interior 

Lighting

Interior Screw-in -

Task Lighting

Individual work areas can use task lighting instead of brightly lighting the entire 

area. Significant energy savings can be realized by focusing light directly where 

it is needed and lowering the general lighting level. An example of task lighting 

is the common desk lamp. A 25W desk lamp can be installed in place of a 

typical lamp in a fixture.

Interior 

Lighting

Interior Fluorescent -

Bi-Level Fixture

Bi-level fixtures have the ability to reduce light output to a lower level, given a 

control strategy that is based on a timer, occupancy sensor, motion sensor, or 

manual switch. 

Interior 

Lighting

Interior Fluorescent -

Delamp and Install 

Reflectors

While sometimes included in lighting retrofit projects, delamping is often 

performed as a separate energy efficiency measure in which a lighting engineer 

analyzes the lighting provided by current systems compared to the 

requirements of building occupants. This often leads to the removal of 

unnecessary lamps corresponding to an overall reduction in energy usage. In 

addition, installing a reflector in each fixture can improve light distribution 

from the remaining lamps. 

Exterior 

Lighting

Exterior Lighting - BiLevel Fixture

Bi-level fixtures have the ability to reduce light output to a lower level, given a 

control strategy that is based on a timer, occupancy sensor, motion sensor, or 

manual switch. 
Industrial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting D-7

End Use Measure Description

Exterior 

Lighting

Exterior Lighting -

Daylighting Controls

Daylighting controls use a photosensor to detect ambient light and adjust or 

turn off electric lights accordingly.

Exterior 

Lighting

Exterior Lighting -

Photovoltaic 

Installation

Solar photovoltaic generation may be used to power exterior lighting and thus 

eliminate all or part of the electrical energy use. 

Process

Process -

Conductivity 

Controls

Automated control of conductivity levels in a process solution, for example by 

variably injecting CO2 into a stream of rinse water, can maintain an optimal 

solution that increases process effectiveness, decreases impurities, reduces 

scaling or corrosion, and minimizes required rinse time.

Process Process - Controls on 

Fume Hoods

Improved fume hoods involve installing sensors and variable-speed controls to 

provide ventilation based on actual demand. When the relevant equipment or 

process is not active, the controls automatically decrease the fan speed 

accordingly. 

Process Process - Timers and 

Controls

Significant energy savings can frequently be attained from processes by adding 

a timer or altering their control algorithms.

Refrigeration

Refrigeration -

Floating Head 

Pressure

Floating head pressure control allows the pressure in the condenser to "float" 

with ambient temperatures. This method reduces refrigeration compression 

ratios, improves system efficiency and extends the compressor life. The 

greatest savings with a floating head pressure approach occurs when the 

ambient temperatures are low, such as in the winter season. Floating head 

pressure control is most practical for new installations. However, retrofits 

installation can be completed with some existing refrigeration systems. 

Installing floating head pressure control increases the capacity of the 

compressor when temperatures are low, which may lead to short cycling.

Refrigeration Refrigeration -

System Controls

Refrigeration System Controls would include measures such as temperature 

sensors, flow/float controls, and pressure controls. These work to improve the 

refrigeration system by limiting demand and improving overall system 

efficiency.

Refrigeration Refrigeration -

System Maintenance

This measure includes repairing and recharging refrigerant lines, cleaning 

condenser coils, and replacing the oil. This reduces energy consumption by 

improving the rate at which the system can compress and cool refrigerant as it 

moves through the system.

Refrigeration Refrigeration -

System Optimization

Refrigeration system optimization is a thorough overhaul of the refrigeration 

system which involves the resizing, sequencing, and controlling of compressors 

in order to optimize load. 

Compressed 

Air

Compressed Air - Air 

Usage Reduction

This measure involves a process audit of the facility to determine if the actual 

application of compressed air can be reduced, reconfigured, consolidated, or 

otherwise optimized.

Compressed 

Air

Compressed Air -

Compressor 

Replacement

This measure is the replacement of existing air compressor equipment with 

more efficient compressors and motors in order to improve energy efficiency. 

Compressed 

Air

Compressed Air -

System Controls

Compressed Air System Controls would include measures such as VSDs, 

centralized controls, and system performance monitoring. These measures 

work in tandem to reduce energy usage by lowering system demand.

Compressed 

Air

Compressed Air -

System Maintenance

This measure includes repairing holes in air lines, replacing failed nozzles, and 

lubricating the compressors. This reduces energy consumption by improving 

compressor efficiency and reducing line loss as gas moves through the system.

Compressed 

Air

Compressed Air -

System Optimization 

and Improvements

System optimization is a thorough overhaul of the compressed air system 

which involves the resizing, sequencing, and improving control over all 

compressors in a system in order to reduce energy consumption to a 

minimum. This measure may include those from Controls and Maintenance.

Pumps Pumping System -

Controls

Significant energy savings can frequently be attained from processes by adding 

a timer or altering their control algorithms.

Pumps Pumping System -

Maintenance

This measure includes clearing traps, repairing impellers, and repairing broken 

seals or valves. This reduces energy consumption by reducing losses incurred 
Industrial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

D-8 www.enernoc.com

End Use Measure Description

by moving fluids through the system.

Pumps Pumping System -

Optimization

Optimization integrates best practices of system analysis, equipment 

improvements, and operational improvements into a sustaining energy 

program. A facility that implements such a practice treats its energy program 

in a similar manner to safety or quality control programs: an individual or team 

is tasked with developing and enforcing standards, goals are set, regular 

reports are generated and reported to management, and all plant employees 

are engaged and held accountable. 

Pumps Pumps - Variable 

Speed Control

The part-load efficiency of drive systems can be improved by varying the speed 

of the motor drive. An additional benefit of variable-speed controls is the 

ability to start and stop the motor and process gradually, thus extending the 

life of the motor and associated machinery. 

Pumps Pump Equipment 

Upgrade

Improved design of flow, housing, control valves, impeller trimming, proper 

sizing, etc to increase productive output per energy input. Moreover, these 

improved systems could be assessed and managed in accordance with 

recognized standards such as ASME EA-2-2008.

Fans & 

Blowers

Fan Equipment 

Upgrade

Improved design of airflow, blades, housing, sizing, etc to increase productive 

output per energy input. Fans are widely used in industry for conveyance, 

drying and ventilation. For example, relatively inefficient centrifugal-radial 

fans, with efficiency as low as 22%, are commonly used in industry. These fans 

could be replaced with more efficient centrifugal backwardly inclined fans that 

increase overall fan efficiency by 20% to 30%. The savings potential for 

premium-efficiency fans is high, and the costs are relatively low. However, 

premium-efficiency fans are sometimes not chosen for industrial applications 

because of concerns about reliable operation in dirty environments.

Fans & 

Blowers

Fan System -

Controls

Significant energy savings can frequently be attained from processes by adding 

a timer or altering their control algorithms.

Fans & 

Blowers

Fan System -

Maintenance

This measure includes repairing holes in ducts, replacing clogged filters, and 

lubricating the motors. This reduces energy consumption by improving fan 

efficiency and reducing system loss as gas moves through the ductwork.

Fans & 

Blowers

Fan System -

Optimization

Optimization integrates best practices of system analysis, equipment 

improvements, and operational improvements into a sustaining energy 

program. A facility that implements such a practice treats its energy program 

in a similar manner to safety or quality control programs: an individual or team 

is tasked with developing and enforcing standards, goals are set, regular 

reports are generated and reported to management, and all plant employees 

are engaged and held accountable. 

Fans & 

Blowers

Fans - Variable Speed 

Control

The part-load efficiency of drive systems can be improved by varying the speed 

of the motor drive. An additional benefit of variable-speed controls is the 

ability to start and stop the motor and process gradually, thus extending the 

life of the motor and associated machinery. 

Motors

Motors - Magnetic 

Adjustable Speed 

Drives

To allow for adjustable speed operation, this technology uses magnetic 

induction to couple a drive to its load. Varying the magnetic slip within the 

coupling controls the speed of the output shaft. Magnetic drives perform best 

at the upper end of the speed range due to the energy consumed by the slip. 

Unlike traditional ASDs, magnetically coupled ASDs create no power distortion 

on the electrical system. However, magnetically coupled ASD efficiency is best 

when power needs are greatest. VFDs may show greater efficiency when the 

average load speed is below 90% of the motor speed, however this occurs 

when power demands are reduced.

Motors Motors - Efficient 

Rewind 

When a motor burns out or is in need of repair, the owner may elect to either 

replace the motor or have it rewound. A typical motor rewind costs less than a 

replacement motor, but at the cost of efficiency. An efficient rewind, however, 

attempts to improve the efficiency of the motor by reducing stator losses. If 

the manufacturer has left stator slots open, or not entirely filled, additional 

copper wire can be included to reduce resistance and increase efficiency. 
Industrial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting D-9

End Use Measure Description

Motors Motors - Variable 

Frequency Drive

The part-load efficiency of drive systems can be improved by varying the speed 

of the motor drive. An additional benefit of variable-speed controls is the 

ability to start and stop the motor and process gradually, thus extending the 

life of the motor and associated machinery. 

HVAC, 

Lighting

Commissioning -

HVAC, Lighting

For new construction and major renovations, commissioning ensures that 

building systems are properly designed, specified, and installed to meet the 

design intent and provide high-efficiency performance. Commissioning begins 

during the design process.

HVAC, 

Lighting

Retrocommissioning 

- HVAC, Lighting

In existing buildings, the retrocommissioning process identifies low-cost or no 

cost measures, including controls adjustments, to improve building 

performance and reduce operating costs. Retrocommissioning addresses 

HVAC, lighting, DHW, and other major building systems.

Ventilation Ventilation - CO2 

Controlled

Also known as Demand Controlled Ventilation, this measure uses carbon 

dioxide (CO2) levels to indicate the level of occupancy in a space. Sensors 

monitor CO2 levels so that air handling controls can adjust the amount of 

outside air the system needs to intake. Ventilation rates are thereby controlled 

based on occupancy, rather than a fixed rate, thus saving HVAC energy use.

All Custom Measures

Custom measures may be included in the analysis to serve as a “catch all” for 

measures for which costs and savings are not easily quantified and that could 

be part of a custom program. Typical costs and energy savings are assumed 

such that the measures pass the economic screen. 

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting E-1

APPENDIX E

MARKET ADOPTION FACTORS

To calculate achievable potential, we apply a set of market adoption factors to economic 

potential. These parameters are described below, followed by a discussion of how they are 

applied to calculate achievable potential. Finally, we present the three sets of factors at the end 

of this section. 

Maximum Achievable Potential Adoption Rates

These factors are applied to Economic potential to estimate the upper bound of achievable 

potential: Maximum Achievable Potential. These estimate customer adoption of economic 

measures when delivered through efficiency programs under ideal market, implementation, and 

customer preference conditions. Information channels are assumed to be established and 

efficient for marketing, educating consumers, and coordinating with trade allies and delivery 

partners. The Maximum Achievable Potential adoption rates are based on the take rates from the 

program interest surveys. For Maximum Achievable Potential we used the 1-year payback take 

rate for the customer segment that is most inclined to adopt energy efficiency measures. This 

reflects what the best practice could achieve in the Ameren Missouri service territory. 

The Maximum Achievable Potential adoption rates are applied directly to economic potential to 

calculate the Maximum Achievable Potential estimates.

Realistic Achievable Potential Adoption Rates

These factors are applied to Maximum Achievable Potential to calculate Realistic Achievable 

Potential. They reflect expected program participation given current barriers to customer 

acceptance, non-ideal implementation conditions, and limited program budgets. This represents 

a lower bound on achievable potential and are also developed using the results of the program 

interest survey of Ameren Missouri customers. The Realistic Achievable Potential adoption rates 

are based on the average take rate across all segments at the 3-year payback level.

Like the Maximum Achievable Potential rates, these rates increase over time. 

To review the take rates from the program interest surveys, please see Volume 2: Market 

Research.

Estimates of Achievable Potential

The tables in the file “1434_Appendix_E_Tables-Potential Factors.xlsx” present the Potential 

Factors. Maximum Achievable Potential Factors as well as the product of Maximum Achievable 

Potential factors and Realistic Achievable Potential factors (High x Low) are used to demonstrate

how Economic potential is changed to reach Realistic Achievable Potential for residential 

equipment and non-equipment measures.

1434_Appendix_E_T

ables-Potential Factor
EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting

500 Ygnacio Valley Road, Suite 450

Walnut Creek, CA 94596

P: 925.482.2000

F: 925.284.3147

About EnerNOC

EnerNOC’s Utility Solutions Consulting team is part of EnerNOC’s Utility Solutions, 

which provides a comprehensive suite of demand-side management (DSM) services 

to utilities and grid operators worldwide. Hundreds of utilities have leveraged our 

technology, our people, and our proven processes to make their energy efficiency 

(EE) and demand response (DR) initiatives a success. Utilities trust EnerNOC to work 

with them at every stage of the DSM program lifecycle – assessing market potential, 

designing effective programs, implementing those programs, and measuring program 

results. 

EnerNOC’s Utility Solutions deliver value to our utility clients through two separate 

practice areas – Implementation and Consulting.

• Our Implementation team leverages EnerNOC’s deep “behind-the-meter 

expertise” and world-class technology platform to help utilities create and 

manage DR and EE programs that deliver reliable and cost-effective energy 

savings. We focus exclusively on the commercial and industrial (C&I) customer 

segments, with a track record of successful partnerships that spans more than a 

decade. Through a focus on high quality, measurable savings, EnerNOC has 

successfully delivered hundreds of thousands of MWh of energy efficiency for 

our utility clients, and we have thousands of MW of demand response capacity 

under management.

• The Consulting team provides expertise and analysis to support a broad range of 

utility DSM activities, including: potential assessments; end-use forecasts; 

integrated resource planning; EE, DR, and smart grid pilot and program design 

and administration; load research; technology assessments and demonstrations; 

evaluation, measurement and verification; and regulatory support.

The team has decades of combined experience in the utility DSM industry. The staff 

is comprised of professional electrical, mechanical, chemical, civil, industrial, and 

environmental engineers as well as economists, business planners, project managers, 

market researchers, load research professionals, and statisticians. Utilities view 

EnerNOC’s experts as trusted advisors, and we work together collaboratively to make 

any DSM initiative a success.