15

- i CHAPTER 1 5

. E MISSIONS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

15.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 15

- 1

15.2 AIR EMISSIONS DESCRI PTIONS AND REGULATIO N

................................ ........ 15

- 1

15.3 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG E

................................ ................................ ................ 15

- 4

15.4 A NALYTICAL METHODS FO R AIR EMISSIONS

................................ ................. 15

- 7

15.5 EFFECTS ON POWER PLA NT AND HOUSEHOLD EMI SSIONS

.......................... 15

- 9

15.6 EFFECTS ON UPSTREAM FUEL

- CYCLE EMISSIONS

................................ ....... 15

- 11

15.7 SUMMARY OF EMISSIONS IMPACTS

................................ ................................ 15

- 12

LIST OF TABLES

Table 15.3.1 Reduction in Cumulative Energy

- Related Emissions of CO 2 from 2018 through 2047 from Residential Dishwasher Products Energy Conservation

Standards

................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 15

- 7

Table 15.5.1 Power Sector Emissions Forecast from AEO2011 Reference Case

.................. 15

- 9

Table 15.5.2 Power Sector Emissions Impa cts Forecasts for Dishwasher TSLs

.................. 15

- 10

Table 15.5.3 Household Emissions Impact Forecasts for Dishwasher TSLs

....................... 15

- 11

Table 15.6.1 Estimated Upstream Emissions of Air Pollutants as a Percentage of Direct

Power Plant Combustion Emissions

................................ .............................. 15

- 12

Table 15.7.1 Cumulative Emissions Reductions Under Dishwasher Product TSLs*

........... 15

- 1215

- 1 CHAPTER 15. EMISSIONS ANALYSIS

15.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter describes potential changes to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and three

air pollutants that may result from energy conservation standards for residential dishwasher products . The impac ts on air emissions are largely driven by changes in power plant types and quantities of electricity generated under each of the considered standard levels . Changes in electricity generation are described in the utility impact analysis in chapter 14

.

15.2 AIR EMISSIONS DESCRI PTIONS AND REGULATION

This analysis considers three pollutants: sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO X ), and mercury (Hg). An air pollutant is any substance in the air that can cause harm to humans or the environment. Pollutants may be natural or man

- made ( i.e., anthropogenic) and may take the form of solid particles (i.e., particulates or particulate matter), liquid droplets, or gases. a DOE’s analysis also considers carbon dioxide (CO 2 ).

Sulfur Dioxide. Sulfur dioxide, or SO 2 , belongs to the family of su lfur oxide gases (SOx). These gases dissolve easily in water. Sulfur is prevalent in all raw materials, including crude oil, coal, and ore that contains common metals like aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, and iron. SOx gases are formed when fuel containing su lfur, such as coal and oil, is burned, and when gasoline is extracted from oil, or metals are extracted from ore. SO 2 dissolves in water vapor to form acid, and interacts with other gases and particles in the air to form sulfates and other products that ca n be harmful to people and their environment. 1

Nitrogen Oxides. Nitrogen oxides

, or NO X , is the generic term for a group of highly reactive gases, all of which contain nitrogen and oxygen in varying amounts. Many of the nitrogen oxides are colorless and odorless. However, one common pollutant, nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), along with particles in the air can often be seen as a reddish

- brown layer over many urban

areas. NO 2 is the specific form of NO X reported in this document. NO X is one of the main ingredients involved in the formation of ground

- level ozone, which can trigger serious respiratory problems. It can contribute to the formation of acid rain, and can impair visibility in areas such as national parks. NO X also contributes to the formation of fine part icles that can impair human health. 2

Nitrogen oxides form when fossil fuel is burned at high temperatures, as in a combustion process. The primary manmade sources of NO X are motor vehicles, electric utilities, and other

a More information on air pollution characteristics and regulations is available on the U.S. Environment Protection Agent (EPA)’s website at www.epa.gov.15

- 2 industrial, commercial, and resid ential sources that burn fossil fuels. NO X can also be formed naturally. Electric utilities account for about 22 percent of NO X emissions in the United States. 2

Mercury. Coal

- fired power plants emit mercury (Hg) found in coal during the burning

process. While coal

- fired power plants are the largest remaining source of human

- generated Hg emissions in the United States, they contribute very little to the global Hg pool or to

contamination of U.S. waters. 3 U.S. coal

- fired power plants emit Hg in three differ ent forms: oxidized Hg (likely to deposit within the United States); elemental Hg, which can travel thousands of miles before depositing to land and water; and Hg that is in particulate form. Atmospheric Hg is then deposited on land, lakes, rivers, and est uaries through rain, snow, and dry deposition. Once there, it can transform into methylmercury and accumulate in fish tissue through bioaccumulation.

Americans are exposed to methylmercury primarily by eating contaminated fish. Because the developing f etus is the most sensitive to the toxic effects of methylmercury, women of childbearing age are regarded as the population of greatest concern. Children exposed to methylmercury before birth may be at increased risk of poor performance on neurobehavioral

t asks, such as those measuring attention, fine motor function, language skills, visual

- spatial abilities, and verbal memory. 4

Carbon Dioxide. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is not a criteria pollutant (see below), but it is of

interest because of its classificatio n as a greenhouse gas (GHG). GHGs trap the sun’s radiation inside the Earth’s atmosphere and either occur naturally in the atmosphere or result from human activities. Naturally occurring GHGs include water vapor, CO 2 , methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), an d ozone (O 3 ). Human activities, however, add to the levels of most of these naturally occurring gases. For example, CO 2 is emitted to the atmosphere when solid waste, fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal), wood, and wood products are burned. In 2007, o ver 90 percent of anthropogenic (i.e., human

- made) CO 2 emissions resulted from burning fossil fuels. 5

Concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere are naturally regulated by numerous processes, collectively known as the “carbon cycle.” The movement of carbon between the atmosphere and the land and oceans is dominated by natural processes, such as plant photosynthesis. While these natural processes can absorb some of the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions produced each year,

billions of metric tons are added to the at mosphere annually. In the United States, in 2007, CO 2 emissions from electricity generation accounted for 39 percent of total U.S. GHG emissions. 5

Particulate Matter . Particulate matter (PM)

, also known as particle pollution, is a complex mixture of extr emely small particles and liquid droplets. Particle pollution is made up of a number of components, including acids (such as nitrates and sulfates), organic chemicals, metals, and soil or dust particles.

I mpacts of PM are of concern due to human exposures that can impact health. Particle pollution

- especially fine particles

- contains microscopic solids or liquid droplets that are so small that they can get deep into the lungs and cause serious health problems. Numero us scientific studies have linked particle pollution exposure to a variety of problems, including:15

- 3 increased respiratory symptoms, such as irritation of the airways, coughing, or difficulty breathing, for example; decreased lung function; aggravated asthma ; development of chronic bronchitis; irregular heartbeat; nonfatal heart attacks; and premature death in people with heart or lung disease.

DOE acknowledges that particulate matter (PM) exposure can impact human health. Power plant emissions can have eit her direct or indirect impacts on PM. A portion of the pollutants emitted by a power plant are in the form of particulates as they leave the smoke stack. These are direct, or primary, PM emissions. However, the great majority of PM emissions

associated wit h power plants are in the form of secondary sulfates, which are produced at a significant distance from power plants by complex atmospheric chemical reactions that often involve the gaseous (non

- particulate) emissions of power plants, mainly SO 2 and NO X . T he quantity of the secondary sulfates produced is determined by a very complex set of factors including the atmospheric quantities of SO 2 and NO X , and other atmospheric constituents and conditions. Because these highly complex chemical reactions produce PM comprised of different constituents from different sources, EPA does not distinguish direct PM emissions from power plants from the secondary sulfate particulates in its ambient air quality requirements, PM monitoring of ambient air quality, or PM emissio ns inventories. For these reasons, it is not currently possible to determine how the amended standard impacts either direct or indirect PM emissions. Therefore, DOE is not planning to assess the impact of these standards on PM emissions. Further, as descri bed below , it is uncertain whether efficiency standards will result in a net decrease in power plant emissions of SO 2

, and of NO X in many States, since those pollutants are now largely regulated by cap and trade systems.

Air Quality Regulation

. The Cl ean Air Act Amendments of 1990 list 188 toxic air pollutants that EPA is required to control. 6 EPA has set national air quality standards for six common pollutants (also referred to as “criteria” pollutants), two of which are SO 2 and NO X

. Also, the Clean A ir Act Amendments of 1990 gave EPA the authority to control acidification and to require operators of electric power plants to reduce emissions of SO 2 and NO X . Title IV of the 1990 amendments established a cap

- and

- trade program for SO 2 , in all 50 states and the District of Columbia (D.C.), intended to help control acid rain

. 6 This cap

- and

- trade program serves as a model for more recent programs with similar features.

In 2005, EPA issued the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) under sections 110 and 111 of the Clean Air Act (40 CFR Parts 51, 96, and 97). b 70 FR 25162

– 25405 (May 12, 2005). CAIR

limited emissions from 28 eastern S tates and D.C. by capping emissions and creating an

al lowance

- based trading program. Although, CAIR was remanded to EPA by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Co lumbia Circuit (D.C. Circuit), (see North Carolina v. EPA , 550 F.3d 1176 (D.C. Cir. 2008),) it remained in effect temporarily, consistent with the D.C. Circuit’s earlier opinion in North Carolina v. EP A , 531 F.3d 896 (D.C. Cir. 2008).

On July 6, 2010, EPA issued the Transport Rule proposal, a replacement for C AIR

. 75 FR 45210 (Aug. 2, 2010). O n July 6, 2011, EPA promulgated the final Transport Rule, entitled

b See http://www.epa.gov/cleanairinterstaterule/.15

- 4 “ Federal Implementation Plans: Interstate Transport of Fine Particulate Matter and Ozone and Correction of SIP Approvals,” but commonly referred to as the Cross

- State Air Pollution Rule or the Transport Rule. 76 FR 48208 (Aug. 8, 2011)

. On December 30, 2011, however, the D.C.

Circuit stay ed the new rules while a panel of judges reviews them, and told EPA to continue enforcing CAIR (see EME Homer City Generation v. EPA

, No. 11

- 1302, Order at *2 (D.C. Cir. Dec. 30, 2011)).

On February 16, 2012 , EPA issued national emissions standards for hazardou s air pollutants (NESHAPs) for mercury and certain other pollutants emitte d from coal and oil

- fired

EGUs. 77 FR 9304

. The NESHAPs do not include emissions caps and, as such, DOE’s energy

conservation standard s wou ld likely reduce Hg emissions.

15.3 GLOBAL CLI MATE CHANGE

Climate change has evolved into a matter of global concern because it is expected to have widespread, adverse effects on natural resources and systems. A growing body of evidence points to anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases, such as car bon dioxide (CO 2 ), as major contributors to climate change. Because this r ule will likely decrease CO 2 emission rates from the fossil fuel sector in the United States, the Department here examines the impacts and causes of climate change and then the poten tial impact of the r ule on CO 2 emissions.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Environment. Climate is usually defined as the average weather, over a period ranging from months to many years. Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate, wh ich is identifiable through changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties (e.g., temperature or precipitation) over an extended period, typically decades or longer.

The World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Prog ramme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide an objective source of information about climate change. According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC report ), published in 2007, climate change is consistent with observed changes to the world’s natural systems; the IPCC expects these changes to continue

. 7

Changes that are consistent with warming include warming of the world’s oceans to a depth of 3000 meters; global average sea level rise at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year from 1961 to 2003; loss of annual average Arctic sea ice at a rate of 2.7 percent per decade, changes in wind patterns that affect extra

- tropical storm tracks and temperature patterns, increases in intense precipitation in some parts of the world, as well as increased drought and more frequent heat waves in many locations worldwide, and numerous ecological changes

. 8

Looking forward, the IPCC describes continued global warming of about 0.2 °C per

decade for the next two decades under a wide range of emission scenarios for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), other greenhouse gases (GHGs), and aerosols. After that period, the rate of increase is

less certain. The IPCC r eport describes increases in average global temperatures of about 1.1 °C15

- 5 to 6.4 °C at the end of the century relative to today. These increases vary depending on the model

and emissions scenarios

. 8

The IPCC r eport describes incremental impacts associated with the rise in temperature. At ranges of incremental increases to the global avera ge temperature, IPCC reports, with either high or very high confidence, that there is likely to be an increasing degree of impacts such as coral reef bleaching, loss of wildlife habitat, loss to specific ecosystems, and negative yield impacts for major cer eal crops in the tropics, but also projects that there likely will be some beneficial impacts on crop yields in temperate regions.

Causes of Climate Change. The IPCC r eport states that the world has warmed by about

0.74 °C in the p ast 100 years. The IPCC report finds that most of the temperature increase since

the mid

- 20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic concentrations of CO 2 and other long

- lived greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide in the a tmosphere,

rather than from natural causes.

Increasing the CO 2 concentration partially blocks the earth’s re

- radiation of captured solar energy in the infrared band, inhibits the radiant cooling of the earth, and thereby alters the energy balance of the planet, which gradually increases its average temperature. The IPCC r eport estimates that currently, CO 2 makes up about 77 percent of the total CO 2 - equivalent c global warming potential in GHGs emitted from human activities, with the vast majority (74 perc ent) of

the CO 2 attributable to fossil fuel use. 8 For the future, the IPCC report describes a wide range of GHG emissions scenarios, but under each scenario CO 2 would continue to comprise above 70 percent of the total global warming potential. 9

Stabiliz ation of CO 2 Concentrations. Unlike many traditional air pollutants, CO 2 mixes thoroughly in the entire atmosphere and is long

- lived. The residence time of CO 2 in the atmosphere is long compared to the emission processes. Therefore, the global cumulative

e missions of CO 2 over long periods determine CO 2 concentrations because it takes hundreds of years for natural processes to remove the CO 2 . Globally, 49 billion metric tons of CO 2

– equivalent of anthropogenic (man

- made) greenhouse gases are emitted every year. d Of this annual total, fossil fuels contribute about 29 billion metric tons of CO 2

. 9

Researchers have focused on considering atmospheric CO 2 concentrations that likely will result in some level of global climate stabilization, and the emission ra tes associated with achieving the “stabilizing” concentrations by particular dates. They associate these stabilized

CO 2 concentrations with temperature increases that plateau in a defined range. For example, at the low end, the IPCC report scenarios target CO 2 stabilized concentrations range between 350

c GHGs differ in their warming influence (radiative forcing) on a global climate system due to their different radiative pr operties and lifetimes in the atmosphere. These warming influences may be expressed through a common metric based on the radiative forcing of CO 2 , i.e., CO 2 - equivalent. CO 2 equivalent emission is the amount of CO 2 emission that would cause the same

- time integrated radiative forcing, over a given time horizon, as an emitted amount of other long

- lived GHG or mixture of GHGs.

d Other non

- fossil fuel contributors include CO 2 emissions from deforestation and decay fro m agriculture biomass; agricultural and industrial emissions of methane; and emissions of nitrous oxide and fluorocarbons.15

- 6 ppm and 400 ppm (essentially today’s value)

— because of climate inertia, concentrations in this

low

- end range would still result in temperatures projected to increase 2.0 °C to 2.4 °C above pre

industrial lev els e (about 1.3 °C to 1.7 °C above today’s levels). To achieve concentrations between 350 ppm to 400 ppm, the IPCC scenarios present that there would have to be a rapid downward trend in total annual global emissions of greenhouse gases to levels that are 50 to 85 percent below today’s annual emission rates by no later than 2050. Since it is assumed that there would continue to be growth in global population and substantial increases in economic production, the scenarios identify required reductions in gree nhouse gas emissions intensity (emissions per unit of output) of more than 90 percent. However, even at these rates, the scenarios describe some warming and some climate change is projected due to already

accumulated CO 2 and GHGs in the atmosphere. 10

The Beneficial Impact of the Rule on CO 2 Emissions. It is anticipated that the Rule will reduce energy

- related CO 2 emissions, particularly those associated with energy consumption in buildings. The U.S. Energy Information Administ ration (EIA) reports in its 20 11 Annual Energy

Outlook ( AEO201 1 ) 11 that U.S. annual energy

- related emissions of CO 2 in 2009 were about 5.4 billion metric tons, of which 1.2 billion tons were attributed to the residential buildings sector (including energy

- using products such as residential dishwasher products) . Most of the greenhouse gas emissions attributed to residential buildings are emitted from fossil fuel

- fired power plants that generate electricity used in this sector. In the AEO201 1 Reference Case, EIA projected that ann ual energy

- related CO 2 emissions would grow from 5.4 billion metric tons in 2009 to 6.3 billion metric tons in 2035, an increase of 16 percent, while residential emissions would grow to from 1.17 billion metric tons to 1.23 billion metric tons, an increase of 5 percent.

The estimated cumulative CO 2 emission reductions from residential dishwasher products energy conservation standard s (shown a s a range of alternative TSLs) during the 30

- year analysis period are indicated in Table 15.3.1 . Estimated CO 2 emission reductions in Table 15.3.1 come from electricity generation (i.e., power plants) as well as household emissions

. The estimated

CO 2 emission reductions from electricity generation are calc ulated using the NEMS

- BT model

, while household emissions are calculated using emission factors.

e IPCC Working Group III , Table TS 2.15

- 7 Table 15.3.1 Reducti on in Cumulative Energy

- Related Emissions of CO 2 from 2018 through 2047 from Residential Dishwasher Products Energy

Conservation Standards

TSL 1 TSL 2* TSL 3 TSL 4

Dishwashers million metric tons

1.15 4.06 65.0 98.6

Percent of total cumulative

emissions reduction compared with

the AEO2011 Reference Case in

2018

- 2047 (2013

– 2047 for TSL 2) 0.002 0.005 0.089 0.135

*The cumulative emissions reductions for TSL 2 are from 2013 to 2047

The Incremental Impact of the Rule on Climate Change. It is difficult to correlate specific emission rates with atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and specific atmospheric concentrations with future temperatures because the IPCC report describes a clear lag in the climate system between any given conce ntration of CO 2 (even if maintained for long periods) and the subsequent average worldwide and regional temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather regimes. For example, a major determinant of climate response is “equilibrium climate sensitivity”, a me asure of the climate system response to sustained radioactive forcing. It is defined as the global average surface warming following a doubling of carbon dioxide

concentrations. The IPCC report describes its estimated, numeric value as about 3 °C, but the likely range of that value is 2 °C to 4.5 °C, with cloud feedbacks the largest source of uncertainty. Further, as illustrated above, the IPCC report scenarios for stabilization rates are presented in terms of a range of concentrations, which then correlate s to a range of temperature changes. Thus, climate sensitivity is a key uncertainty for CO 2 mitigation scenarios that aim to meet specific temperature levels.

Because of how complex global climate systems are, it is difficult to know to what extent

and when particular CO 2 emissions reductions will impact global warming. However, as Table

15 .3 .1 indicates, the rule is expected to reduce CO 2 emissions associated with energy consumption in buildings.

15.4 ANALYTICAL METHODS F OR AIR EMISSIONS

For each of the considered TSLs, DOE calculated total power

- sector emissions based on output from t he NEMS

- BT model (see chapter 14 for description of the model).

Coal

- fired electric generation is the single largest source of electricity in the United

States. Because th e mix of coals used significantly affects the emissions produced, the model includes a detailed representation of coal supply. The model considers the rank of the coal as well as the sulfur contents of the fuel used when determining optimal dispatch.15

- 8 Wit hin the NEMS

- BT model, planning options for achieving emissions restrictions in the Clean Air Act Amendments include installing pollution control equipment on existing power plants and building new power plants with low emission rates. These methods for re ducing emission are compared to dispatching options such as fuel switching and allowance trading. Environmental regulations also affect capacity expansion decisions. For instance, new plants are

not allocated SO 2 emissions allowances according to the Clean Air Act Amendments. Consequently, the decision to build a particular capacity type must consider the cost (if any) of obtaining sufficient allowances. This could involv e purchasing allowances or over

- complying at an existing unit.

For th is analysis , DOE used the version of NEMS

- BT based on AEO 2011 , which assumes the implementation of CAIR. Thus, DOE’s analysis assume s the presence of nationwide emission caps on SO 2 and caps on NO X emissions in the 28 States covered by CAIR. DOE expects that the NEMS

- BT based on AEO 2012 will incorporate implementation of the Transport

Rule.

SO 2 emissions from affected Electric Generating Units (EGUs) are subject to nationwide and regional emissions cap and trading programs, and DOE has deter mined that these programs create uncertainty about the standards’ impact on SO 2 emissions. The attainment of emissions caps is typically flexible among EGUs and is enforced through the use of emissions allowances and tradable permits. Under existing EPA re gulations, any excess SO 2 emissions allowances resulting from the lower electricity demand caused by the imposition of an efficiency standard could be used to permit offsetting increases in SO 2 emissions by any regulated EGU. However, if

the standard resul ted in a permanent increase in the quantity of unused emissions allowances,

there would be an overall reduction in SO 2 emissions from the standards. While there remains some uncertainty about the ultimate effects of efficiency standards on SO 2 emissions co vered by the existing cap and trade system, the NEMS

- BT modeling system that DOE uses to forecast emissions reductions currently indicates that no physical reductions in power sector emissions

would occur for SO 2

. f

The CAIR established a cap on NO X emissions in 28 eastern states and the District of

Columbia (D.C.) . All these States and D.C. have elected to reduce their NO X emissions by participating in ca p

- and

- trade programs for EGUs. Therefore, energy conservation standards for

dishwashers may have little or no physical effect on these emissions in the 28 eastern S tates and the D.C. for the same reasons that they may have little or no physical effect on SO 2 emissions.

With respect to Hg, in the absence of emissions caps , a DOE standard would likely reduce Hg emissions and DOE uses NEMS

- BT to estimate these emission reductions.

f In contrast to the modeling forecasts of NEMS

- BT that SO 2 emissions will remain at the cap, d uring the years 2007
and 2008, SO 2 emissions were below the trading cap. This raises the possibility that standards could cause some

reduction in SO 2 emissions. However, because DOE does not have a method to predict when emissions will be below the trading cap, it continues to reply on NEMS

- BT and thus does not estimate SO 2 emissions reductions at

this time.15

- 9 As noted in chapter 14 , NEMS

- BT model forecasts end in 2035. Rather than extrapolate beyond this year, DOE assumes that e missions impacts beyond 2035 are equal to the impacts in

2035

.

15.5 EFFECTS ON POWER PLA NT AND HOUSEHOLD EMISSIONS

Table 15.5.1 shows AEO201 1 R eference C ase power plant emissions in selected years.

The Reference C ase emissions are the emissions shown by the NEMS

- BT model to result if none of the TSLs are promulgated (the base case).

Table 15.5.1 Power Sector Emissions Forecast from AEO201 1 Reference Case

NEMS

- BT Results 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

CO 2 2,303 million metric tons 2,138 2,225 2,360 2,444 2,526

NO X 2.57 million tons 1.98 1.98 2.00 2.01 2.03

Hg 40.5 tons 26.8 26.8 28.0 28.7 29.3

Table 15.5.2 shows the estimated changes in power plant emi ssions by TSL for

dishwashers. The tables display changes in CO 2 , NO X , and Hg emissions in select ed years for

each of the TSLs. “Mt” re fers to “million metric tons.” Table 15.5.3 shows results for estimated changes for household emissions. These emissions derive from gas or oil water heaters used to
heat hot water for use in dishwashers.15

- 10 Table 15.5.2 Power Sector Emissions Impact s Forecasts for Dishwasher TSLs

NEMS

- BT Results*,** Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

Total

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 2047 2018

- 2047

Standard Level 1

CO 2 (Mt/yr)

- 0.016

- 0.029

- 0.033

- 0.033

- 0.033

- 0.033

- 0.033

- 0.771
NOx (kt/yr)

- 0.014

- 0.024

- 0.027

- 0.026

- 0.026

- 0.026

- 0.026

- 0.651
Hg (ton/yr) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

- 0.005

Standard Level 2

CO 2 (Mt/yr)

- 0.002

- 0.005

- 0.004

- 0.002

- 0.002

- 0.002

- 0.002

- 0.076
NOx (1,000 tons/yr)

- 0.002

- 0.004

- 0.003

- 0.002

- 0.002

- 0.002

- 0.002

- 0.070

Hg (ton/yr) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Standard Level 3

CO 2 (Mt/yr)

- 1.048

- 1.862

- 2.137

- 2.143

- 2.143

- 2.143

- 2.143

- 50.1
NOx (1,000 tons/yr)

- 0.934

- 1.575

- 1.760

- 1.718

- 1.718

- 1.718

- 1.718

- 42.2
Hg (ton/yr) 0.022

- 0.003

- 0.015

- 0.022

- 0.022

- 0.022

- 0.022

- 0.339

Standard Level 4

CO 2 (Mt/yr)

- 1.159

- 2.059

- 2.368

- 2.383

- 2.383

- 2.383

- 2.383

- 55.7
NOx (1,000 tons/yr)

- 1.032

- 1.742

- 1.951

- 1.911

- 1.911

- 1.911

- 1.911

- 47.8
Hg (ton/yr) 0.025

- 0.003

- 0.016

- 0.025

- 0.025

- 0.025

- 0.025

- 0.377

*CO 2 results are in metric tons; NO X and Hg results are in short tons.

**Cumulative results for TSL 2 are from 2013 to 2047 Extrapolation15

- 11 Table 15.5.3 Household Emissions Impact Forecasts for Dishwasher TSLs

15.6 EFFECTS ON UPSTREAM FUEL

- CYCLE EMISSIONS

Upstream fuel

- cycle emissions refer to the emissions associated with the amount of energy used in the upstream production and downstream consumption of electricity, including

ene rgy used at the power plant. Upstream processes include the mining of coal or extraction of natural gas, physical preparatory and cleaning processes, and transportation to the power plant.

The NEMS

- BT does a thorough accounting of emissions at the power pl ant due to downstream energy consumption, but does not account for upstream emissions (i.e., emissions from energy losses during coal and natural gas production). Thus, this analysis reports only power plant

emissions.

However, previous DOE environmental assessment documents have developed approximate estimates of effects on upstream fuel

- cycle emissions. These emissions factors provide the reader with a sense of the possible magnitude of upstream effects. These upstream

emissions would be in addition to emissions from direct combustion. NEMS

- BT Results*,** Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

Total

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 2047 2018

- 2047

Standard Level 1

CO 2 (Mt/yr)

- 0.007

- 0.013

- 0.015

- 0.017

- 0.017

- 0.017

- 0.017

- 0.379
NOx (1,000 tons/yr)

- 0.006

- 0.010

- 0.012

- 0.013

- 0.013

- 0.013

- 0.013

- 0.309

SO 2 (1,000 tons/yr)

- 0.002

- 0.003

- 0.004

- 0.004

- 0.004

- 0.004

- 0.004

- 0.111

Standard Level 2

CO 2 (Mt/yr)

- 0.093

- 0.132

- 0.151

- 0.161

- 0.161

- 0.161

- 0.161

- 3.98
NOx (1,000 tons/yr)

- 0.073

- 0.105

- 0.119

- 0.128

- 0.128

- 0.128

- 0.128

- 3.47

SO 2 (1,000 tons/yr)

- 0.024

- 0.035

- 0.039

- 0.042

- 0.042

- 0.042

- 0.042

- 1.17

Standard Level 3

CO 2 (Mt/yr)

- 0.286

- 0.498

- 0.605

- 0.658

- 0.658

- 0.658

- 0.658

- 14.9
NOx (1,000 tons/yr)

- 0.226

- 0.394

- 0.479

- 0.521

- 0.521

- 0.521

- 0.521

- 12.1

SO 2 (1,000 tons/yr)

- 0.075

- 0.130

- 0.158

- 0.172

- 0.172

- 0.172

- 0.172

- 4.39

Standard Level 4

CO 2 (Mt/yr)

- 0.816

- 1.423

- 1.732

- 1.893

- 1.893

- 1.893

- 1.893

- 42.9
NOx (1,000 tons/yr)

- 0.646

- 1.126

- 1.371

- 1.498

- 1.498

- 1.498

- 1.498

- 35.5

SO 2 (1,000 tons/yr)

- 0.214

- 0.372

- 0.453

- 0.495

- 0.495

- 0.495

- 0.495

- 12.6

*All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons.

**Cumulative results for TSL 2 are from 2013 to 2047. Extrapolation15

- 12 Relative to the entire fuel cycle, estimates based on the work of Dr. M

. DeLuchi, and reported in earlier DOE environmental assessment documents, find that an amount approximately equal to eight percent, by mass, of emissions (including SO 2 ) from coal production are due to mining, preparation that includes cleaning the coal, and transportation from the mine to the power plant. 12 Transportation emissions include emissions from the fuel used by the mode of transportation that moves the coal from the mine to the power plant. In addition, based on Dr. DeLuchi’s work, DOE estimated that an amount equal to approximately 14 percent of emissions from natural gas production result from upstream processes.

Emission factor esti mates and corresponding percentages of contributions of upstream emissions from coal and natural gas production, relative to power plant emissions, are shown in

Table 15.6.1 for CO 2 and NO X . The percentages provide a means to estimate upstream emission savings based on changes in emissions from power plants. This approach does not address Hg

emissions.

Table 15.6.1 Estimated Upstream Emissions of Air Pollutants as a Percentage of

Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions

Pollutant Percent of Coal

Combustion Emissions % Percent of Natural Gas

Combustion Emissions %

CO 2 2.7 11.9

NO X 5.8 40

15.7 SUMMARY OF EMISSIONS IMPACTS

Table 15.7.1 summarize s the estimated emissions impacts for each of the TSLs for

dishwasher products

. It show s cumulative changes in emissions for CO 2 , NO X , and Hg for the period from 2018 through 2047 for TSL1, TSL3, and TSL4. F or TSL 2 cumulative emissions a re shown from 2013 through 2047

. C umulative CO 2 , NO X , and Hg e missions are reduced compared

to the R eference case for all TSLs. For comparison, t he cumulative power sector emissions in the

AEO 201 1 R eference case, over the period 2018 through 2047

, ar e 72,993 Mt for CO 2 , 60,289 kt

for NO X , and 856 tons for H g

.

Table 15.7.1 Cumulative Emissions Reductions Under Dishwasher Product TSLs *

Pollutant TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4

CO 2 NO X Mt

Hg 1,000 tons 0.771

ton 0.651

0.005 0.076

0.070

0.000 50.1

42.2

0.339 55.7

47.8

0.377

* Values for CO 2 are given in metric tons ; values for NO X and Hg are given in short tons.15

- 13 REFERENCES

1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Sulfur Dioxide. 2011. (Last accessed July 11, 2012.)

< http://www.epa.gov/airquality/sulfurdioxide/ >

2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

. Nitrogen Dioxide

. 2011. (Last accessed July 11, 2012.) < http://www.epa.gov/airquality/nitrogenoxides/ >

3 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

. Mercury

. 2011. (Last accessed July 11, 2012.)

< http://www.epa.gov/mercury/about.htm >

4 Trasande , L., C. Schechter, K.A. Haynes, and P.J. L andrigan. Applying Cost Analyses to Drive Policy t hat Protects Children : Mercury as a Case Study. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences , 2006. 1076

5 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

. 2009

. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report, 2009. ( Last accessed July 11, 2012 ; data updated to 2012 .)

< http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html >

6 U.S. E nvironmental Protection Agency

. Clean Air Act. 1990. (Last accessed July 11, 2012.)

< http://www.epa.gov/air/caa/ >

7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). IPCC W orking Group I

. Fourth Assessment Repor t. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis . Geneva. (Last accessed July 11, 2012.)

< http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg 1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm >

8 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Working Group I I. Fourth Assessment Report

. Climate Change 2007

– Impacts, Adap tation and Vulnerability. (Last accessed July 11, 2012.) < http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html >

9 Intergovernmental Panel o n Climate Change

. IPC C Special Report : Land Use, Land

- Use Change

, a nd Forestry. 2000. (Last accessed July 11, 2012.)

< http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/land_use/index.php?idp=0 >

10 Intergovernmental Panel o n Climate Change

. IPCC Working Group III

. Fourth Assessment Report

. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change

. (Last accessed July 11, 2012.)

< http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html >

11 Energy Information Administration

. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 with Projections to 2035

. Report No. DOE/EIA

- 0383(2011). (Last accessed July 11, 2012.)

< http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html >15-14 12 DeLuchi, M. A. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from the Use of Transportation Fu els and Electricity

. Vo . 2: a ppendixes A -S. November 1993. Argonne Nation al Laboratory : Argonne, IL. Report No. ANL/ESD/TM -22- Vol.2.