10-i

CHAPTER 10: NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

10.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 10-1 

10.2 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ............................................................................... 10-1 

10.2.1 National Energy Savings Definition .................................................................. 10-1 

10.2.2 National Energy Savings Inputs......................................................................... 10-2

10-2

10-3

10-3

10-4

10-5

10-5

10-6

10-7

10-7

10-8

10-8

10-8

10-9

10-9

10-9

10-10

10-11

10-12

10-2

10-3

10-6

10-7

10-10

10-11

10-11

10-11

10-13

10.2.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit ........................................................ 

10.2.2.2 Shipments and Equipment Stock ................................................................. 

10.2.2.3 National Annual Energy Consumption........................................................ 

10.2.2.4 Energy Site-to-Source Conversion Factors.................................................. 

10.3 NET PRESENT VALUE............................................................................................... 

10.3.1 Net Present Value Definition............................................................................. 

10.3.2 Net Present Value Inputs ................................................................................... 

10.3.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit........................................................................ 

10.3.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit..................................................... 

10.3.2.3 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases ......................................................... 

10.3.2.4 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings ......................................................... 

10.3.2.5 Discount Factors .......................................................................................... 

10.3.2.6 Present Value of Costs................................................................................. 

10.3.2.7 Present Value of Savings ............................................................................. 

10.4 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS.......... 

10.4.2 National Energy Savings Results..................................................................... 

10.4.3 Annual Costs and Savings ............................................................................... 

10.4.4 Net Present Value Results................................................................................ 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 10.2.1 National Energy Saving Inputs .......................................................................... 

Table 10.2.2 Small Electric Motors: Shipment-Weighted Average Per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption in 2015 ............................................................................ 

Table 10.3.1 Net Present Value Inputs ................................................................................... 

Table 10.3.2 Small Electric Motors: Shipment-Weighted Average Per-Unit Total 

Installed Cost in 2015 ........................................................................................ 

Table 10.4.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Inputs.................................. 

Table 10.4.2 Polyphase Motors: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results.................. 

Table 10.4.3 Capacitor-Start Induction-Run Motors: Cumulative National Energy 

Savings Results ................................................................................................ 

Table 10.4.4 Capacitor-Start Capacitor-Run Motors: Cumulative National Energy 

Savings Results ................................................................................................ 

Table 10.4.5 Polyphase Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results............................. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
10-ii

Table 10.4.6 Capacitor-Start Induction-Run Motors: Cumulative Net Present 

Value Results ................................................................................................... 10-13

10-13

10-5

10-12

Table 10.4.7 Capacitor-Start Capacitor-Run Motors: Cumulative Net Present 

Value Results ................................................................................................... 

LIST OF FIGURES 

Figure 10.2.1 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors for Electricity............................................. 

Figure 10.4.1 Non-Discounted Annual Installed Cost Increases and Annual Operating 

Cost Savings for Polyphase Small Electric Motors, Candidate Standard 

Level 2 ............................................................................................................. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS 

10.1 INTRODUCTION 

 This chapter describes the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s estimation of certain 

national impacts of potential energy conservation standards for small electric motors. Results 

described here include: (1) national energy savings (NES) from possible candidate standard 

levels (CSLs), (2) monetary value of the energy savings, (3) increased total installed costs of the 

considered appliances due to energy conservation standards, and (4) the net present value (NPV) 

of the difference between the value of energy savings and increased total installed costs. 

 DOE determined the NES and NPV for all of the CSLs considered for the three product 

classes of small electric motors: (1) polyphase motors, (2) capacitor-start induction-run (CSIR), 

and capacitor-start capacitor-run (CSCR) motors. DOE performed all calculations for each of 

the considered products using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is accessible on the 

Internet 

(http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/small_electric_motors.html). 

The spreadsheet model that contains the national impact analysis (NIA), combines the 

calculations for determining the NES and NPV as well as input from the relevant shipments 

model. The shipments analysis (see preliminary Technical Support Document (TSD) chapter 9) 

provides a detailed description of the shipments models that DOE used to forecast future 

purchases of the considered products. 

10.2 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS 

10.2.1 National Energy Savings Definition 

 DOE calculates annual NES in each year as the difference between energy consumption 

of the product stock using the average unit energy consumption (UEC) of the stock in the base 

case (without new standards) or in a case with new standards. 

10-1 

( ) ( ) ( ) class class classbase classstd yNES yAffStock yUEC , yUEC , = × )( − )(

 

 For the above expressions, DOE defined the various quantities as follows: 

AffStock(y)class = the stock of equipment sold after the year of the standard that is 

still in operation in year y (affected stock) 

UEC(y)base class = the unit energy consumption in the base case in year y

UEC(y)std. class = the unit energy consumption in the standard case in year y 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
 The affected stock in year y is given by 

( ) () ( )class

y

stdyri

class class yAffStock = ∑ −× iySurviS =

 

 The stock in year y is dependent on the number of shipments S(y)class in past years, 

multiplied by the survival function Surv(v), the fraction of shipments surviving till age v

(vintage). Only shipments occurring after the year of standard (stdyr) are considered for the 

calculation of NES, since shipments before this date will not be affected by the standard, and 

thus will produce no savings. The variables UECbase,class and UECstd,class are the average unit 

energy consumption of equipment sold in the base and standards cases, respectively. 

 

 Cumulative energy savings are the sum over a defined time period (2015 to 2045 for 

water heaters, 2013 to 2045 for the other products) of the annual national energy savings: 

∑ ( ) =

=

2045

stdyry

cum NES yNES

 The stock of products is dependent on annual shipments and the lifetime of the products. 

10.2.2 National Energy Savings Inputs 

 Table 10.2.1 lists the inputs for the determination of national energy savings. 

Table 10.2.1 National Energy Saving Inputs 

Annual Energy Consumption per Unit (UEC) 

Shipments 

Equipment Stock (STOCKV) 

National Annual Energy Consumption (AEC) 

Site-to-Source Conversion Factor (src_conv) 

10.2.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit 

10-2 

 For each of the considered products, DOE presented the per-unit annual energy 

consumption as a function of product energy efficiency in the energy use determination (see 

preliminary TSD chapter 6), and the life-cycle cost and payback period analysis (see preliminary 

TSD chapter 8). Because the per-unit annual energy consumption is directly dependent on 

energy efficiency, DOE used the base case and standards case shipment-weighted energy 

efficiencies presented above in section 10.2, in combination with the annual energy use data 

presented in the life-cycle cost and payback period analysis (see preliminary TSD chapter 8), to 

estimate the shipment-weighted average annual per-unit energy consumption under the base case 

and standards cases. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
10-3 

Table 10.2.2 Small Electric Motors: Shipment-Weighted Average Per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption in 2015 

Candidate Standard Level 

Product Class Base 

Case 1 2 3 4 5 

Efficiency (%) 76.4 84.0 85.5 86.5 88.0 90.0 

Polyphase Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)* 430.4 265.0 235.9 217.1 189.7 154.6 

Efficiency (%) 63.3 70.9 73.6 75.4 78.2 81.8 

Single Phase -CSCR Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) 392.7 278.1 242.7 220.5 189.2 150.6 

Efficiency (%) 67.9 80.2 82.1 83.3 85.2 87.6 

Single Phase -CSIR Annual Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) 479.8 250.2 221.7 203.3 176.8 143.2 

* Kilowatt hours per year. 

For some types of equipment, a significant “rebound effect” can occur when more 

efficient equipment is used more intensely in response to the economic savings from energy 

efficiency. Accounting for a significant rebound effect will decrease energy savings compared to 

a scenario with no rebound effect. Small electric motors are predominantly components of larger 

pieces of equipment or an integrated production process. Typically, energy losses from 

inefficient operation of the larger equipment or process that contains a small electric motor are 

much greater than losses due to inefficiencies of the individual motor. In addition, consumers 

rarely have direct control over the intensity of motor operation. Given these considerations and a 

lack of data indicating a rebound effect for small electric motors, DOE assumed that there is no 

significant rebound effect for this equipment. 

10.2.2.2 Shipments and Equipment Stock 

 An extensive description of the methodology for conducting and generating the 

shipments forecasts for each of the considered products can be found in the shipments analysis 

(see preliminary TSD chapter 9). The product stock in a given year is the number of products 

shipped from earlier years that survive in the given year. The NIA models keep track of the 

number of units shipped each year. DOE assumes that the products have an increasing 

probability of retiring as they age. The probability of survival as a function of years-sincepurchase is the survival function. Please refer to the life cycle cost analysis (see preliminary 

TSD chapter 8, section 8.2.4 “Motor Lifetime”) for further details on the motor lifetimes that 

DOE used in its analysis. 

10.2.2.3 National Annual Energy Consumption 

 The national annual energy consumption (AEC) is calculated in the base case only and is 

the product of the annual energy consumption per unit and the number of units of each vintage: 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
( ) ( ) class classbase class yAEC = UEC × yStock ,

Where: 

 UECbase class = the unit energy consumption in the base case 

Stock(y)class = the stock of equipment in year y

10.2.2.4 Energy Site-to-Source Conversion Factors 

 In determining national annual energy savings, DOE initially calculated the annual 

energy consumption at the site (e.g., for electricity, the energy in kWh consumed at the 

household). It then calculated primary (source) energy savings from site energy consumption by 

applying a conversion factor to account for losses associated with the generation, transmission, 

and distribution of electricity. The site-to-source conversion factor is the multiplicative factor 

used for converting site energy consumption into primary or source energy consumption, 

expressed in quads. 

 DOE used annual site-to-source conversion factors based on the version of the National 

Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that corresponds to U.S. DOE/Energy Information 

Administration (EIA)’s Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO2008).1

 The factors used are 

marginal values, which represent the response of the system to an incremental decrease in 

consumption. For electricity, the conversion factors vary over time, due to projected changes in 

generation sources (i.e., the power plant types projected to provide electricity to the country). 

NEMS outputs stop in 2030; DOE assumed that conversion factors remain constant at 2030 

values throughout the remainder of the forecast. Figure 10.2.1 shows the site-to-source 

conversion factors between 2005 and 2030 for electricity. 

10-4 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Btu/kWh

Figure 10.2.1 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors for Electricity 

10.3 NET PRESENT VALUE 

10.3.1 Net Present Value Definition 

 The NPV is the value in the present of a time series of costs and savings. The NPV is 

described by the equation: 

∑( )×−=

y

NPV ( yDFyCyS )()()

Where: 

S(y) = value of operating cost savings (including energy, repair, and maintenance 

costs) in year y, and 

C(y) = value of increased total installed costs (including products and installation). 

DF(y) = discount factor in each year, 

 DOE calculated the total annual operating cost savings by multiplying the number or 

stock of the given product (by vintage) by its per-unit operating cost savings (also by vintage). 

DOE calculated the total annual installed cost increases by multiplying the number or stock of 

the given product (by vintage) by its per-unit total installed cost increase (also by vintage). The 

10-5 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
calculation of the annual operating costs savings and total annual installed cost increases is 

represented with the following equations: 

yOCS )( = ∑ yUOCS )( × yAffStock )(

yTIC )( =∑ yxSyUTIC )()(

Where: 

OCS = total annual operating cost savings each year summed over vintages of the 

affected product stock, AffStock(y), 

TIC = total annual installed cost increases each year summed over vintages of the 

affected product stock, AffStock(y), 

S(y)= stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V surviving in the year for 

which DOE calculated annual energy consumption, 

UOCS(y) = annual operating cost savings per unit in year y, 

UTIC(y) = annual total installed cost increase per unit in year y, 

y = year in the forecast. 

 DOE calculated a discount factor from the discount rate and the number of years between 

the “present” (i.e., year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the costs and 

savings occur. The NPV is the sum over time of the discounted net savings. 

10.3.2 Net Present Value Inputs 

 Table 10.3.1 summarizes the inputs to the net present value calculation. 

Table 10.3.1 Net Present Value Inputs 

Total Installed Cost per Unit 

Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit 

Total Annual Installed Cost Increases 

Total Annual Operating Costs 

Discount Factor 

Present Value of Costs 

Present Value of Savings 

 The increase in the total annual installed cost is equal to the annual change in the per-unit 

total installed cost (difference between each standards case and base case) multiplied by the 

shipments forecasted in the standards case. As with the calculation of the NES, DOE did not 

calculate total annual installed costs for all of the products using base case shipments. 

 The total annual operating cost savings are equal to the change in the annual operating 

costs (difference between base case and each standards case) per unit multiplied by the 

10-6 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
10-7 

shipments forecasted in the standards case. The annual operating cost includes energy, repair, 

and maintenance costs, presented in the life-cycle cost and payback period analysis (see 

preliminary TSD chapter 8). 

10.3.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit 

 For each of the considered products, DOE first presented the per-unit total installed cost 

as a function of product energy efficiency in the life-cycle cost and payback period analysis. 

(See preliminary TSD chapter 8.) Because the per-unit total annual installed cost is directly 

dependent on energy efficiency, DOE used the base case and standards case shipment-weighted 

energy efficiencies presented above in section 10.2, in combination with the total installed costs 

presented in the life-cycle cost and payback period analysis (see preliminary TSD chapter 8), to 

estimate the shipment-weighted average annual per-unit total installed cost under the base case 

and standards cases. 

Table 10.3.2 Small Electric Motors: Shipment-Weighted Average Per-Unit Total 

Installed Cost in 2015 

Candidate Standard Level 

Product Class Base 

Case 1 2 3 4 5 

Efficiency (%) 76.4 84.0 85.5 86.5 88.0 90.0 

Polyphase Total Installed 

Cost (2007$) $482 $523 $548 $663 $986 $2,619 

Efficiency (%) 63.3 70.9 73.6 75.4 78.2 81.8 

Single Phase -CSCR Total Installed 

Cost (2007$) $490 $510 $526 $542 $579 $977 

Efficiency (%) 67.9 80.2 82.1 83.3 85.2 87.6 

Single Phase -CSIR Total Installed 

Cost (2007$) $532 $561 $578 $598 $656 $1,402 

As noted above in section 10.2, DOE assumed that forecasted energy efficiencies in the 

base case and standards cases remain frozen at the energy efficiency levels in the effective year. 

Therefore, because the per-unit total installed costs are a function of energy efficiency, DOE held 

the values shown above constant over the forecast period. 

10.3.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit 

 The per-unit annual operating cost includes the energy, repair, and maintenance costs. 

DOE determined the per-unit annual operating cost savings by taking the per-unit annual energy 

consumption savings developed for each product and multiplying it by the appropriate energy 

price. 

 DOE forecasted the per-unit annual energy consumption for the base case and each 

standards case by freezing the consumption at levels estimated for the effective year. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
 DOE forecasted energy prices based on EIA’s AEO2008. The energy prices and energy 

price trends are described in Chapter 8. 

10.3.2.3 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases 

 The total annual installed cost increase for any given standards case is the product of the 

total installed cost increase per unit due to the standard and the number of units of each vintage. 

This approach accounts for differences in total installed cost from year to year. The equation for 

determining the total annual installed cost increase for a given standards case was shown in 

section 10.4.1 and is repeated below. 

10-8 

yTIC )( = ∑ yxSyUTIC )()(

yOCS )( = ∑ yUOCS )( × yAffStock )(

 

10.3.2.4 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings 

 The total annual operating cost savings for any given standards case is the product of the 

annual operating cost savings per unit due to the standard and the number of units of each 

vintage. This approach accounts for differences in annual operating cost savings from year to 

year. The equation for determining the total annual operating cost savings for a given standards 

case was shown above and is repeated below. 

 

10.3.2.5 Discount Factors 

 DOE multiplies monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine the 

present value. The discount factor (DF) is described by the equation: 

)ypy( _

)r(

DF

+1

1

= 

Where: 

r = discount rate, 

y = year of the monetary value, and 

yP = year in which the present value is being determined. 

 DOE estimated national impacts with both a three-percent and a seven-percent real 

discount rate. It used these discount rates in accordance with the Office of Management and 

Budget (OMB)’s guidance to Federal agencies on the development of regulatory analysis (OMB 

Circular A-4, September 17, 2003), and section E., “Identifying and Measuring Benefits and 

Costs,” therein. DOE defines the present year as 2007. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
10-9 

10.3.2.6 Present Value of Costs 

 The present value of increased installed costs is the annual installed cost increase in each 

year (i.e., the difference between the standards case and base case), discounted to the present, 

and summed for the time period over which DOE is considering the installation of products (i.e., 

from the effective date of energy conservation standards through 30 years later). 

 The increase in total installed cost refers to both product cost and installation cost 

associated with the higher energy efficiency of products purchased in the standards case 

compared to the base case. DOE calculated annual increases in installed costs as the difference 

in total installed cost for new products purchased each year, multiplied by the shipments in the 

standards case. 

10.3.2.7 Present Value of Savings 

 The present value of operating cost savings is the annual operating cost savings (i.e., the 

difference between the base case and standards case) discounted to the present, and summed over 

the period from the effective date to the time when the last unit installed is retired from service. 

 Savings are decreases in operating costs (including energy, repair, and maintenance 

costs) associated with the higher energy efficiency of products purchased in a standards case 

compared to the base case. Total annual operating cost savings are the savings per unit 

multiplied by the number of units of each vintage surviving in a particular year. Equipment 

consumes energy over its entire lifetime, and for units purchased in the last year, the 

consumption includes energy consumed until the unit is retired from service. 

10.4 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS 

 The NIA model provides estimates of the NES and NPV due to various candidate 

standards levels. The inputs to the NIA model have been discussed earlier in sections 10.3.2 

(NES Inputs) and 10.4.2 (NPV Inputs). DOE generated the NES and NPV results using a 

Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, which is accessible on the Internet 

(http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/small_electric_motors.html). 

Details and instructions for using the spreadsheet are provided in Appendix 10-A, User 

Instructions for National Impact Analysis Spreadsheet. 

 Table 10.4.1 summarizes the inputs to the NIA model. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
10-10 

Table 10.4.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Inputs 

Input Data Description 

Shipments Annual shipments from shipments model. (See Chapter 9) 

Effective Date of Standard 2015 

Base Case Forecasted Energy Efficiencies Shipment-weighted unit energy consumption (UEC), based on 

efficiency and hours of operation 

Standards Case Energy Efficiencies The UEC for each standards case, based on efficiency and hours of 

operation. 

Annual Energy Consumption per Unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of shipment-weighted 

UEC. 

Total Installed Cost per Unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of efficiency level. 

Energy Cost per Unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of the annual UEC 

and energy prices. (See Chapter 8 for energy prices) 

Repair Cost and Maintenance Cost per Unit Annual values are a function of efficiency level. (See Chapter 8) 

Trend in Energy Prices Based on EIA AEO2008 forecasts (to 2030) and extrapolation to 

2045. (See Chapter 8) 

Energy Site-to-Source Conversion Factor Conversion varies yearly and is generated by DOE/EIA’s NEMS* 

program (a time series conversion factor; includes electric generation, 

transmission, and distribution losses). 

Discount Rate 3 percent and 7 percent real. 

Present Year Future expenses are discounted to year 2007. 

* Chapter 13 on the Utility Impact Analysis and the Environmental Assessment Report provide more detail on 

NEMS. 

10.4.2 National Energy Savings Results 

 The following sections provide NES results for the standards cases analyzed for the three 

product classes. NES results are cumulative to 2045 and are shown as primary energy savings. 

DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted-average values, yielding results that are 

discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values as in the life-cycle cost and payback 

period analysis. 

 Tables 10.4.2 through 10.4.5 show the NES results for the candidate standard levels 

(CSLs) analyzed for small electric motors. There is a steady increase in energy savings with 

increasing standard level. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
10-11 

Table 10.4.2 Polyphase Motors: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results 

National Energy Savings (quads)* Candidate 

Standard 

Level 

Efficiency 

(%) 

No Discount Rate 3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate 

1 84.0 0.217 0.107 0.047 

2 85.5 0.255 0.126 0.056 

3 86.5 0.280 0.139 0.061 

4 88.0 0.315 0.156 0.069 

5 90.0 0.362 0.179 0.079 

* Quadrillion British thermal units. 

Table 10.4.3 Capacitor-Start Induction-Run Motors: Cumulative National Energy 

Savings Results 

Candidate National Energy Savings (quads) Standard 

Level 

Efficiency 

(%) No Discount Rate 3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate 

1 70.9 1.095 0.552 0.249 

2 73.6 1.434 0.723 0.326 

3 75.4 1.646 0.830 0.375 

4 78.2 1.946 0.982 0.443 

5 81.8 2.314 1.167 0.527 

Table 10.4.4 Capacitor-Start Capacitor-Run Motors: Cumulative National Energy 

Savings Results 

National Energy Savings (quads) Candidate 

Standard 

Level 

Efficiency 

(%) No Discount 3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate 

1 80.2 0.114 0.058 0.026 

2 82.1 0.129 0.065 0.029 

3 83.3 0.138 0.070 0.032 

4 85.2 0.151 0.076 0.035 

5 87.6 0.168 0.085 0.038 

10.4.3 Annual Costs and Savings 

 To illustrate the basic inputs to the NPV calculations, Figure 10.4.1 presents the nondiscounted annual installed cost increases and annual operating cost savings at the national level 

for CSL 2 for polyphase small electric motors. The figure also shows the net savings, which is 

the difference between the savings and costs for each year. The annual product cost is the sum 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
of the increase in the total installed cost for products purchased each year over the forecast 

period. The annual operating cost savings is the savings in operating costs for products operating 

in each year. The NPV is the difference between the cumulative annual discounted savings and 

the cumulative annual discounted costs. DOE can create figures like the one shown below for 

each of the considered products’ standard cases. 

-$0.10

-$0.05

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Billions of 2007 Dollars

Equipment Cost

Operating Cost Savings

Net Savings

Figure 10.4.1 Non-Discounted Annual Installed Cost Increases 

and Annual Operating Cost Savings for Polyphase 

Small Electric Motors, Candidate Standard Level 2 

10.4.4 Net Present Value Results 

 The following sections provide NPV results for the candidate standards levels considered 

for the product classes of each considered product. Results are cumulative and are shown as the 

discounted value of the net savings in dollar terms. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on 

weighted-average values, yielding results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution 

of values as in the life-cycle cost and payback period analysis. 

 The present value of increased total installed costs is the total annual installed cost 

increase (i.e., the difference between the standards case and base case), discounted to the present, 

and summed over the time period in which DOE evaluates the impact of energy conservation 

standards. Savings are decreases in operating costs associated with the higher energy efficiency 

of products purchased in the standards cases compared to the base case. Total operating cost 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
10-13

savings are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage (i.e., the year 

of manufacture) surviving in a particular year. For units purchased up through the final year 

(2045), the operating cost includes energy consumed until the last unit is retired from service. 

 Tables 10.4.5 through 10.4.7 show the NPV results for the candidate standard levels 

analyzed for each small electric motor product class. The highest CSL that has a positive NPV 

for both discount rates is CSL 2 for polyphase motors, CSL 3 for CSIR motors, and CSL 4 for 

CSCR motors 

Table 10.4.5 Polyphase Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results 

Net Present Value 

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate 

Candidate 

Standard 

Level 

Efficiency 

(%) 

billion 2007$ billion 2007$ 

1 84.0 0.59 0.23 

2 85.5 0.46 0.16 

3 86.5 -0.87 -0.48 

4 88.0 -4.81 -2.38 

5 90.0 -25.39 -12.29 

Table 10.4.6 Capacitor-Start Induction-Run Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value 

Results 

Net Present Value

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate 

Candidate 

Standard 

Level 

Efficiency 

(%) 

billion 2007$ billion 2007$ 

1 70.9 3.79 1.51 

2 73.6 3.86 1.45 

3 75.4 3.27 1.10 

4 78.2 0.63 -0.26 

5 81.8 -43.31 -21.62 

Table 10.4.7 Capacitor-Start Capacitor-Run Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value 

Results 

Net Present Value

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

Candidate 

Standard 

Level

Efficiency 

(%)

billion 2007$ billion 2007$

1 80.2 0.47 0.19 

2 82.1 0.44 0.18 

3 83.3 0.37 0.14 

4 85.2 0.10 0.00 

5 87.6 -4.30 -2.14 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2
10-14 

REFERENCES 

1. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy 

Outlook 2008 (Revised Early Release) with Projections to 2030, 2008. Washington, DC. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 07.2