10-i CHAPTER 10: NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 10-1 10.2 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ............................................................................... 10-1 10.2.1 National Energy Savings Definition .................................................................. 10-1 10.2.2 National Energy Savings Inputs......................................................................... 10-2 10-2 10-3 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-7 10-8 10-8 10-8 10-9 10-9 10-9 10-10 10-11 10-12

10-2

10-3 10-6

10-7 10-10 10-11

10-11

10-11 10-13 10.2.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit ........................................................ 10.2.2.2 Shipments and Equipment Stock ................................................................. 10.2.2.3 National Annual Energy Consumption........................................................ 10.2.2.4 Energy Site-to-Source Conversion Factors.................................................. 10.3 NET PRESENT VALUE............................................................................................... 10.3.1 Net Present Value Definition............................................................................. 10.3.2 Net Present Value Inputs ................................................................................... 10.3.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit........................................................................ 10.3.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit..................................................... 10.3.2.3 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases ......................................................... 10.3.2.4 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings ......................................................... 10.3.2.5 Discount Factors .......................................................................................... 10.3.2.6 Present Value of Costs................................................................................. 10.3.2.7 Present Value of Savings ............................................................................. 10.4 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND N ET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS.......... 10.4.2 National Energy Savings Results..................................................................... 10.4.3 Annual Costs and Savings ............................................................................... 10.4.4 Net Present Value Results................................................................................

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.2.1 National Ener gy Saving Inputs .......................................................................... Table 10.2.2 Small Electric Motors: Ship ment-Weighted Average Per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption in 2015 ............................................................................ Table 10.3.1 Net Present Value Inputs ................................................................................... Table 10.3.2 Small Electric Motors: Ship ment-Weighted Average Per-Unit Total Installed Cost in 2015 ........................................................................................ Table 10.4.1 National Energy Savings a nd Net Present Value Inputs.................................. Table 10.4.2 Polyphase Motors: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results.................. Table 10.4.3 Capacitor-Start Induction-Run Motors: Cu mulative National Energy Savings Results ................................................................................................ Table 10.4.4 Capacitor-Start Capacitor-Run Motors: Cu mulative National Energy Savings Results ................................................................................................ Table 10.4.5 Polyphase Motors: Cumulativ e Net Present Value Results.............................10-ii Table 10.4.6 Capacitor-Start Induction-Run Motors: Cu mulative Net Present Value Results ................................................................................................... 10-13

10-13

10-5

10-12 Table 10.4.7 Capacitor-Start Capacitor-Run Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results ...................................................................................................

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.2.1 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors for Electricity............................................. Figure 10.4.1 Non-Discounted Annual Installe d Cost Increases and Annual Operating Cost Savings for Polyphase Small Electric Motors, Candidate Standard Level 2 .............................................................................................................CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter describes the U.S. Departme nt of Energy (DOE)’s estimation of certain national impacts of potential ener gy conservation standards for sma ll electric motors. Results described here include: (1) national energy sa vings (NES) from possible candidate standard levels (CSLs), (2) monetary value of the energy sa vings, (3) increased total installed costs of the considered appliances due to en ergy conservation standards, and (4) the net present value (NPV) of the difference between the va lue of energy savings and increased total installed costs.

DOE determined the NES and NPV for all of the CSLs considered for the three product classes of small electric motors : (1) polyphase motors, (2) capac itor-start induction-run (CSIR), and capacitor-start capacitor-run (CSCR) motors. DOE performed all calculations for each of the considered products using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet mode l, which is accessible on the Internet ( http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_st andards/commercial/small_electric_motors.html ). The spreadsheet model that contains the nati onal impact analysis (NIA), combines the calculations for determining the NES and NPV as well as input from the relevant shipments model. The shipments analysis (see preliminar y Technical Support Docume nt (TSD) chapter 9) provides a detailed description of the shipment s models that DOE used to forecast future purchases of the considered products.

10.2 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

10.2.1 National Energy Savings Definition

DOE calculates annual NES in each year as the difference between energy consumption of the product stock using the av erage unit energy consumption ( UEC ) of the stock in the base case (without new standards) or in a case with new standards.

10-1 

## ( ) 

# ( ) ( ) classstd classbase class class yUEC yUEC yAffStock yNES

, , )( )( = ×

−

For the above expressions, DOE defined the various quantities as follows:

AffStock(y) class = the stock of equipment sold after the year of the standard that is still in operation in year y (affected stock)

UEC(y) base class = the unit energy consumption in the base case in year y

UEC(y) std. class = the unit energy consumption in the standard case in year yThe affected stock in year y is given by



## ( ) () ( ) class y

stdyri class class iySurviS yAffStock −× = 

## ∑

=
The stock in year y is dependent on the number of shipments S(y) class in past years, multiplied by the survival function Surv(v) , the fraction of shipments surviving till age v (vintage). Only shipments occurr ing after the year of standard ( stdyr ) are considered for the calculation of NES, since shipments before this date will not be affected by the standard, and thus will produce no savings. The variables UEC base,class and UEC std,class are the average unit energy consumption of equipment sold in the base and standards cases, respectively.

Cumulative energy savings are the sum ove r a defined time period (2015 to 2045 for water heaters, 2013 to 2045 for the other produ cts) of the annual national energy savings:


## ( ) 

## ∑

= = 2045

stdyry cum yNES NES

The stock of products is depe ndent on annual shipments and the lifetime of the products.

10.2.2 National Energy Savings Inputs
Table 10.2.1 lists the inputs for the determination of national energy savings.

Table 10.2.1 National Energy Saving Inputs Annual Energy Consumption per Unit ( UEC ) Shipments Equipment Stock ( STOCK V

) National Annual Energy Consumption ( AEC ) Site-to-Source Conversion Factor ( src_conv )

10.2.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

10-2 For each of the considered products, DOE presented the per-unit annual energy consumption as a function of product energy effi ciency in the energy use determination (see preliminary TSD chapter 6), and the life-cycle co st and payback period analysis (see preliminary TSD chapter 8). Because the per-unit annual energy consumption is directly dependent on energy efficiency, DOE used the base case a nd standards case shipment-weighted energy efficiencies presented above in section 10.2, in combination with the annual energy use data presented in the life-cycle cost and payback pe riod analysis (see preliminary TSD chapter 8), to estimate the shipment-weighted average annual pe r-unit energy consumpti on under the base case and standards cases.10-3 Table 10.2.2 Small Electric Motors: Shipment-We ighted Average Per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption in 2015
Candidate Standard Level Product Class Base Case 1 2 3 4 5 Efficiency (%) 76.4 84.0 85.5 86.5 88.0 90.0 Polyphase Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr)* 430.4 265.0 235.9 217.1 189.7 154.6

Efficiency (%) 63.3 70.9 73.6 75.4 78.2 81.8 Single Phase -CSCR Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) 392.7 278.1 242.7 220.5 189.2 150.6

Efficiency (%) 67.9 80.2 82.1 83.3 85.2 87.6 Single Phase -CSIR Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) 479.8 250.2 221.7 203.3 176.8 143.2
* Kilowatt hours per year.
For some types of equipment, a significan t “rebound effect” can occur when more efficient equipment is used more intensely in response to the economic savings from energy efficiency. Accounting for a si gnificant rebound effect will decrea se energy savings compared to a scenario with no rebound effect. Small electric motors are predominantly components of larger pieces of equipment or an integrated producti on process. Typically, energy losses from inefficient operation of the larger equipment or process that contains a small electric motor are much greater than losses due to inefficiencies of the individual motor. In addition, consumers rarely have direct control over th e intensity of motor operation. Given these considerations and a lack of data indicating a rebound e ffect for small electric motors, DOE assumed that there is no significant rebound effect for this equipment.

10.2.2.2 Shipments and Equipment Stock
An extensive description of the me thodology for conducting and generating the shipments forecasts for each of the considered products can be found in the shipments analysis (see preliminary TSD chapter 9). The product stoc k in a given year is the number of products shipped from earlier years that survive in the gi ven year. The NIA models keep track of the number of units shipped each year. DOE a ssumes that the products have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The probabi lity of survival as a function of years-sincepurchase is the survival function. Please refer to the life cycle cost analysis (see preliminary TSD chapter 8, section 8.2.4 “Motor Lifetime”) for further details on the motor lifetimes that DOE used in its analysis.

10.2.2.3 National Annual Energy Consumption
The national annual energy consumption (AEC) is calculated in the base case only and is the product of the annual energy consumption per unit and the number of units of each vintage:

## ( ) ( ) class classbase class yStock UEC yAEC × =

, Where:

UEC base class = the unit energy consumption in the base case

Stock(y) class = the stock of equipment in year y

10.2.2.4 Energy Site-to-Source Conversion Factors
In determining national annual energy sa vings, DOE initially calculated the annual energy consumption at the site (e.g., for elect ricity, the energy in kWh consumed at the household). It then calculated primary (source) energy savings from site energy consumption by applying a conversion factor to account for losses associated with the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. The site-to-sour ce conversion factor is the multiplicative factor used for converting site energy consumption into primary or source energy consumption, expressed in quads.

DOE used annual site-to-source conversion fa ctors based on the ve rsion of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that corr esponds to U.S. DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s Annual Energy Outl ook 2008 (AEO2008). 1 The factors used are marginal values, which represent the response of the system to an incremental decrease in consumption. For electricity, the conversion factors vary over time, due to projected changes in generation sources (i.e., the power plant types projected to provide electricity to the country). NEMS outputs stop in 2030; DOE assumed that conversion factors remain constant at 2030 values throughout the remainder of the forecas t. Figure 10.2.1 shows the site-to-source conversion factors between 2005 and 2030 for electricity.

10-40 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Btu/kWh

Figure 10.2.1 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors for Electricity

10.3 NET PRESENT VALUE

10.3.1 Net Present Value Definition
The NPV is the value in the present of a tim e series of costs and savings. The NPV is described by the equation: 

## ( ) 

# ∑ ×−=

y yDFyCyS NPV )()() (

Where:

S(y) = value of operating cost savings (inc luding energy, repair, and maintenance costs) in year y , and C(y) = value of increased tota l installed costs (including products and installation). DF(y) = discount factor in each year,

DOE calculated the total annual operating cost savings by multiplying the number or stock of the given product (by vi ntage) by its per-unit operating co st savings (also by vintage). DOE calculated the total annual installed cost increases by multiplying the number or stock of the given product (by vintage) by its per-unit total installed cost increase (also by vintage). The

10-5calculation of the annual operating costs savings and total an nual installed cost increases is represented with the following equations: 

# ∑ )( )( )( yAffStock yUOCS yOCS × = 

# ∑ )()(

)( yxSyUTIC yTIC = Where:

OCS = total annual operating co st savings each year summed over vintages of the affected product stock, AffStock(y)

, TIC = total annual installed cost increases each year summed over vintages of the affected product stock, AffStock(y)

, S(y) = stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V surviving in the year for which DOE calculated annual energy consumption, UOCS(y) = annual operating cost sa vings per unit in year y, UTIC(y) = annual total installed cost increase per unit in year y,
y = year in the forecast.

DOE calculated a discount factor from the di scount rate and the num ber of years between the “present” (i.e., year to whic h the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum ove r time of the discounted net savings.

10.3.2 Net Present Value Inputs
Table 10.3.1 summarizes the inputs to the net present value calculation.

Table 10.3.1 Net Present Value Inputs Total Installed Cost per Unit Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit
Total Annual Installed Cost Increases Total Annual Operating Costs
Discount Factor
Present Value of Costs Present Value of Savings

The increase in the total annual installed cost is equal to the annual change in the per-unit total installed cost (difference between each standards case and base case) multiplied by the shipments forecasted in the standards case. As with the calculation of the NES, DOE did not calculate total annual installe d costs for all of the products using base case shipments.

The total annual operating cost savings are equal to the change in the annual operating costs (difference between base case and each standards case) per unit multiplied by the

10-610-7 shipments forecasted in the standards case. Th e annual operating cost includes energy, repair, and maintenance costs, presented in the life- cycle cost and payback period analysis (see preliminary TSD chapter 8).

10.3.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit
For each of the considered products, DOE firs t presented the per-unit total installed cost as a function of product energy efficiency in th e life-cycle cost and pa yback period analysis. (See preliminary TSD chapter 8.) Because the per-unit total annual installed cost is directly dependent on energy efficiency, DOE used the ba se case and standards case shipment-weighted energy efficiencies presented above in section 10.2, in combinati on with the total installed costs presented in the life-cycle cost and payback pe riod analysis (see preliminary TSD chapter 8), to estimate the shipment-weighted average annual pe r-unit total installed co st under the base case and standards cases.

Table 10.3.2 Small Electric Motors: Shipment-Weighted Average Per-Unit Total Installed Cost in 2015
Candidate Standard Level Product Class Base Case 1 2 3 4 5 Efficiency (%) 76.4 84.0 85.5 86.5 88.0 90.0 Polyphase Total Installed Cost (2007$) $482 $523 $548 $663 $986 $2,619

Efficiency (%) 63.3 70.9 73.6 75.4 78.2 81.8 Single Phase -CSCR Total Installed Cost (2007$) $490 $510 $526 $542 $579 $977

Efficiency (%) 67.9 80.2 82.1 83.3 85.2 87.6 Single Phase -CSIR Total Installed Cost (2007$) $532 $561 $578 $598 $656 $1,402

As noted above in section 10.2, DOE assumed that forecasted energy efficiencies in the base case and standards cases remain frozen at the energy efficiency levels in the effective year. Therefore, because the per-unit to tal installed costs are a function of energy efficiency, DOE held the values shown above constant over the forecast period.

10.3.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit
The per-unit annual operating co st includes the energy, repair , and maintenance costs. DOE determined the per-unit annua l operating cost savings by ta king the per-unit annual energy consumption savings developed for each produc t and multiplying it by the appropriate energy price.

DOE forecasted the per-unit annual energy consumption for the base case and each standards case by freezing the consumption at levels estimated for the effective year.DOE forecasted energy prices based on EIA’s AEO2008 . The energy prices and energy price trends are described in Chapter 8.

10.3.2.3 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases

The total annual installed cost increase for any given standa rds case is the product of the total installed cost increa se per unit due to the standard and th e number of units of each vintage. This approach accounts for differences in total installed cost from year to year. The equation for determining the total annual installed cost incr ease for a given standards case was shown in section 10.4.1 and is repeated below.

10-8 

# ∑ )()( )( yxSyUTIC yTIC =



# ∑ )( )( )( yAffStock yUOCS yOCS × = 10.3.2.4 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings
The total annual operating cost savings for a ny given standards case is the product of the annual operating cost savings per unit due to th e standard and the number of units of each vintage. This approach account s for differences in annual operati ng cost savings from year to year. The equation for determining the total annu al operating cost savings for a given standards case was shown above and is repeated below.

10.3.2.5 Discount Factors
DOE multiplies monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine the present value. The discount factor (DF) is described by the equation:

)ypy(

_ )r( DF +1 1

=

Where:

r = discount rate,
y = year of the monetary value, and
y P = year in which the present value is being determined.

DOE estimated national impacts with both a three-percent and a seven-percent real discount rate. It used these discount rates in accordance with the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)’s guidance to Federa l agencies on the development of regulatory analysis (OMB Circular A-4, September 17, 2003), and section E., “Identifying and Measuring Benefits and Costs,” therein. DOE defines the present year as 2007.10-9 10.3.2.6 Present Value of Costs
The present value of increased installed costs is the annual installed cost increase in each year (i.e., the difference between the standards ca se and base case), discounted to the present, and summed for the time period over which DOE is considering the installa tion of products (i.e., from the effective date of energy conser vation standards thro ugh 30 years later).

The increase in total insta lled cost refers to both produc t cost and installation cost associated with the higher energy efficiency of products purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. DOE calculated annua l increases in installed costs as the difference in total installed cost for new products purchas ed each year, multiplied by the shipments in the standards case.

10.3.2.7 Present Value of Savings
The present value of operating cost savings is the annual operating cost savings (i.e., the difference between the base case and standards case) discounted to the present, and summed over the period from the effective date to the time when the last unit installed is retired from service.

Savings are decreases in ope rating costs (including energy, repair, and maintenance costs) associated with the hi gher energy efficiency of products purchased in a standards case compared to the base case. Total annual operating cost savings are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintag e surviving in a particular year. Equipment consumes energy over its entire lifetime, and for units purchased in the last year, the consumption includes energy consumed until the unit is retired from service.

10.4 NATIONAL ENERGY SA VINGS AND NET PRES ENT VALUE RESULTS
The NIA model provides estimates of th e NES and NPV due to various candidate standards levels. The inputs to the NIA model have been discu ssed earlier in sections 10.3.2 (NES Inputs) and 10.4.2 (NPV Inputs). DOE generated the NES and NPV results using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, which is accessible on the Internet ( http://www1.eere.energy.gov/build ings/appliance_standards/commercial/small_electric_motors.html ). Details and instructions for using the spread sheet are provided in Appendix 10-A, User Instructions for National Impact Analysis Spreadsheet.

Table 10.4.1 summarizes the inputs to the NIA model.10-10 Table 10.4.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Inputs Input Data Description Shipments Annual shipments from shipments model. (See Chapter 9)
Effective Date of Standard 2015 Base Case Forecasted Energy Effi ciencies Shipment-weighted unit en ergy consumption (UEC), based on efficiency and hours of operation Standards Case Energy Efficiencies The UEC for each standards case, based on efficiency and hours of operation. Annual Energy Consumption per Unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of shipment-weighted UEC. Total Installed Cost per Unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of efficiency level. Energy Cost per Unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of the annual UEC and energy prices. (See Chapter 8 for energy prices) Repair Cost and Maintenance Cost per Unit Annual values are a function of efficien cy level. (See Chapter 8) Trend in Energy Prices Based on EIA AEO2008 forecasts (to 2030) and extrapolation to 2045. (See Chapter 8)
Energy Site-to-Source Conversion Factor Conversion varies yearly and is generated by DOE/EIA’s NEMS* program (a time series conversion factor; includes electric generation, transmission, and distribution losses).
Discount Rate 3 percent and 7 percent real.
Present Year Future expenses are discounted to year 2007. * Chapter 13 on the Utility Impact Analysis and the Environmental Assessment Report provide more detail on

NEMS.

10.4.2 National Energy Savings Results
The following sections provide NES results fo r the standards cases analyzed for the three product classes. NES results are cumulative to 2045 and are shown as primary energy savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weight ed-average values, yiel ding results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values as in the life-cycle cost and payback period analysis.

Tables 10.4.2 through 10.4.5 show the NES results for the candidate standard levels (CSLs) analyzed for small electr ic motors. There is a steady increase in energy savings with increasing standard level.10-11 Table 10.4.2 Polyphase Motors: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results

National Energy Savings (quads)* Candidate Standard

Level Efficiency (%) No Discount Rate 3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate
1 84.0 0.217 0.107 0.047
2 85.5 0.255 0.126 0.056
3 86.5 0.280 0.139 0.061
4 88.0 0.315 0.156 0.069
5 90.0 0.362 0.179 0.079 * Quadrillion British thermal units.

Table 10.4.3 Capacitor-Start Induction-Run Motors: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results National Energy Savings (quads) Candidate Standard

Level Efficiency (%) No Discount Rate 3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 70.9 1.095 0.552 0.249
2 73.6 1.434 0.723 0.326
3 75.4 1.646 0.830 0.375
4 78.2 1.946 0.982 0.443
5 81.8 2.314 1.167 0.527

Table 10.4.4 Capacitor-Start Capacitor-Run Motors: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results
National Energy Savings (quads) Candidate Standard

Level Efficiency (%) No Discount 3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 80.2 0.114 0.058 0.026
2 82.1 0.129 0.065 0.029
3 83.3 0.138 0.070 0.032
4 85.2 0.151 0.076 0.035
5 87.6 0.168 0.085 0.038

10.4.3 Annual Costs and Savings
To illustrate the basic inputs to the NP V calculations, Figure 10.4.1 presents the nondiscounted annual installed cost in creases and annual operating cost savings at the national level for CSL 2 for polyphase small electric motors. Th e figure also shows the net savings, which is the difference between the savings and costs for each year. The annual product cost is the sumof the increase in the total installed cost for products purchased each year over the forecast period. The annual operating cost savings is the savings in oper ating costs for products operating in each year. The NPV is the difference betw een the cumulative annual discounted savings and the cumulative annual discounted costs. DOE can create figures like the one shown below for each of the considered products’ standard cases.

-$0.10 -$0.05 $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055Billions of 2007 Dollars

Equipment Cost Operating Cost Savings Net Savings

Figure 10.4.1 Non-Discounted Annual Installed Cost Increases and Annual Operating Cost Savings for Polyphase Small Electric Motors, Candidate Standard Level 2

10.4.4 Net Present Value Results
The following sections provide NPV results fo r the candidate standards levels considered for the product classes of each considered product. Results are cumulative and are shown as the discounted value of the net savings in dollar term s. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted-average values, yielding re sults that are discrete point va lues, rather than a distribution of values as in the life-cycle cost and payback period analysis.

The present value of increased total installed costs is th e total annual installed cost increase (i.e., the difference between the standard s case and base case), discounted to the present, and summed over the time period in which DOE evaluates the impact of energy conservation standards. Savings are decreases in operating co sts associated with the higher energy efficiency of products purchased in the sta ndards cases compared to the base case. Total operating cost

10-1210-13 savings are the savings per unit multiplied by the numb er of units of each vintage (i.e., the year of manufacture) surviving in a particular year. For units pu rchased up through the final year (2045), the operating cost includes energy consumed until the last unit is retired from service.

Tables 10.4.5 through 10.4.7 show the NPV results for the candidate standard levels analyzed for each small electric motor product cl ass. The highest CSL that has a positive NPV for both discount rates is CSL 2 for polyphase motors, CSL 3 for CSIR motors, and CSL 4 for CSCR motors

Table 10.4.5 Polyphase Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results Net Present Value
3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate Candidate Standard

Level Efficiency (%) billion 2007$ billion 2007$ 1 84.0 0.59 0.23 2 85.5 0.46 0.16 3 86.5 -0.87 -0.48 4 88.0 -4.81 -2.38 5 90.0 -25.39 -12.29

Table 10.4.6 Capacitor-Start Induction-Run Motors : Cumulative Net Present Value Results Net Present Value
3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate Candidate Standard

Level Efficiency (%) billion 2007$ billion 2007$
1 70.9 3.79 1.51
2 73.6 3.86 1.45
3 75.4 3.27 1.10
4 78.2 0.63 -0.26 5 81.8 -43.31 -21.62

Table 10.4.7 Capacitor-Start Capacitor-Run Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results Net Present Value
3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate Candidate Standard

Level Efficiency (%) billion 2007$ billion 2007$
1 80.2 0.47 0.19
2 82.1 0.44 0.18
3 83.3 0.37 0.14 4 85.2 0.10 0.00 5 87.6 -4.30 -2.1410-14 REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Energy - En ergy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (Revised Early Releas e) with Projections to 2030 , 2008. Washington, DC.