# D EMAND



# - SIDE 

# M ANAGEMENT 

# M ARKET 

# P OTENTIAL 

# S TUDY

Volume 3: Energy Efficiency Analysis 

# Final Report

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 500 Ygnacio Valley Road Suite 450 Walnut Creek, CA 94596 925.482.2000

www.enernoc.com Prepared for: Ameren Missouri

Presented on: December 20

, 2013EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting iii This report was prepared by
EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 500 Ygnacio Valley Blvd., Suite 450 Walnut Creek, CA 94596

I. Rohmund , Project Director B. Kester, Project Manager D. Costenaro F. Nguyen S. Yoshida D. Ghosh C. Arzbaecher C. Carrera S. Kananizadeh K. Walter

Subcontractors The Brattle Group Ahmad Faruqui Ryan Hledik

YouGov|Definitive Insights D. Lineweber

Washington University in St. Louis Ray Ehrhard John MurphyEnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting v 

## CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ .... 1

- 1 Report Organization

................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 1

- 2 Backgrou nd

................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 1

- 2
Ameren Missouri DSM Overview

................................ ................................ .......... 1

- 3
Definitions of Potential

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 1

- 4 Abbreviations and Acronyms

................................ ................................ ........................... 1

- 5

2 ANALYSIS APPROACH AN D DATA DEVELOPMENT

................................ ................ 2

- 1 Analysis Approach

................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 2

- 1
LoadMAP Model

................................ ................................ ................................ . 2

- 2 Market Characterization

................................ ................................ ...................... 2

- 3 Market Profiles

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 2

- 7 Baseline Pro jection

................................ ................................ ............................. 2

- 8 Energy Efficiency Measure Analysis

................................ ................................ ..... 2

- 8 Energy

- Efficiency Potential

................................ ................................ ............... 2

- 12 Program Potential

................................ ................................ ............................ 2

- 13
Data Dev elopment

................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 2

- 13
Data Sources

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 2

- 13 Application of Data to the Analysis

................................ ................................ .... 2

- 15

3 MARKET CHARACTERIZAT ION AND MARKET PROFI LES

................................ ...... 3

- 1 Energy Use Summary

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 3

- 1
Residential Sector

................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 3

- 2
Commercial Sector

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 3

- 4
Industrial Sector

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 3

- 9

4 BASELINE PROJECTION

................................ ................................ ........................ 4

- 1
Resident ial Sector

................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 4

- 1
Commercial Sector

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 4

- 4
Industrial Sector

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 4

- 6 Baseline Projection Summary

................................ ................................ .......................... 4

- 7

5 MEASURE

- LEVEL ENERGY EFFICIE NCY POTENTIAL

................................ ............. 5

- 1 Summary

................................ ................................ ................................ ....................... 5

- 1
Overview of Measure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential by Sector

................................ ...... 5

- 3
Residential Measure

- level Potential

................................ ................................ ................. 5

- 4
Residential Measure

- level Potential by Market Segment

................................ ........ 5

- 4 Residential Top 20 Measures

................................ ................................ .............. 5

- 5 Residential Measure

- level Potential by End Use

................................ .................... 5

- 7
Commercial Measure

- level Potential

................................ ................................ ................ 5

- 8
Commercial Measure

- level Potential by Market Segment

................................ ....... 5

- 9 Commercial Top 20 Measures

................................ ................................ ........... 5

- 10vi www.enernoc.com Commercial Measure

- level Potential by End Use

................................ ................. 5

- 12
Industrial Measure

- level Potential

................................ ................................ .................. 5

- 13 Industrial Top 10 Measures

................................ ................................ .............. 5

- 13 Industrial Potential by End Use

................................ ................................ ......... 5

- 15

6 PROGRAM POTENTIAL

................................ ................................ .......................... 6

- 1 Programmatic Framework and Program Descriptions

................................ ........................ 6

- 1 Residential Programs

................................ ................................ .......................... 6

- 2 Busine ss Programs

................................ ................................ ............................. 6

- 4 Program Potential Results

................................ ................................ ............................... 6

- 6 Summary of Program Potential

................................ ................................ ........... 6

- 6 Year

- by

- year Program Potential

................................ ................................ .......... 6

- 7
Cost

- effectiveness

................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 6

- 11 Supply Curves

................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 6

- 12

Y

- axis: Unit Cost

................................ ................................ .............................. 6

- 12 X

- axis: Energy Savings Impacts

................................ ................................ ........ 6

- 12 Program Supply Curves

................................ ................................ .................... 6

- 13

7 SE NSITIVITY ANALYSIS

................................ ................................ ....................... 7

- 1
Avoided Cost

................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 7

- 1
Economic Growth

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 7

- 3
Net

- to

- gross Assumptions

................................ ................................ ............................... 7

- 4



### A MA RKET PROFILES

................................ ................................ ............................... A

- 1



### B RESIDENTIAL ENERGY E FFICIENCY EQUIPMENT AND MEASURE DATA

.............. B

- 1



### C COMMERCIAL ENERGY EF FICIENCY EQUIPMENT A ND MEASURE DATA

.............. C

- 1



### D INDUSTRIAL ENERGY EF FICIENCY EQUIPMENT A ND MEASURE DATA

............... D

- 1



### E MARKET ADOPTION FACT ORS

................................ ................................ .............. E

- 1EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting vii 

## LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1

- 1 Ameren Missouri Service Territory

................................ ................................ .......... 1

- 3 Figure 2

- 1 Overview of Analysis Approach

................................ ................................ .............. 2

- 2 Figure 2

- 2 LoadMAP Analysis Framework

................................ ................................ ................ 2

- 3 Figure 2

- 3 Approach for Measure Assessment

................................ ................................ ......... 2

- 9 Figure 3

- 1 Sector

- Level Electricity Use, 2011

................................ ................................ .......... 3

- 1 Figure 3

- 2 Residential Electricity by End Use (2011), All Homes

................................ ............... 3

- 2

F igure 3

- 3 Residential Electricity Intensity by End Use and Segment (kWh/household, 2011)

.... 3

- 4 Figure 3

- 4 Commercial Market Segmentation by Building Type

– Percentage of Electricity Use

.. 3

- 5 Figure 3

- 5 Commercial Electricity Consumption by End Use (2011), All Building Types

.............. 3

- 7 Figure 3

- 6 Commercial Electricity Intensity by End Use and Segment (kWh/SqFt, 2011)

............ 3

- 7 Figure 3

- 7 Commercial Electricity Usage by End Use Segment (GWh, 2011)

............................. 3

- 8 Figure 3

- 8 Industrial Electricity Use by End Use (2011), All Industries

................................ .... 3

- 10 Figure 4

- 1 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use

................................ ............................. 4

- 2 Figure 4

- 2 Residential Use per Household by End Use

................................ ............................. 4

- 2 Figure 4

- 3 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use

................................ ............................ 4

- 4 Figure 4

- 4 Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use

................................ ............................... 4

- 6 Figure 4

- 5 Baseline Projection Summary (GWh)

................................ ................................ ...... 4

- 7 Figure 5

- 1 Measure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential

................................ .............................. 5

- 2 Figure 5

- 2 Summary of the Baseline Projection and Measure

- level EE Forecasts (GWh)

............. 5

- 2 Figure 5

- 3 Measure

- level Achievable Potential by Sector (GWh)

................................ ............... 5

- 3 Figure 5

- 4 Residential Measure

- level Energy Efficiency Savings

................................ ................ 5

- 4 Figure 5

- 5 Residential Measure

- level RAP by End Use in 2018 and 2025

................................ ... 5

- 6 Figure 5

- 6 Commercial Measure

- level Energy Efficiency Savings

................................ .............. 5

- 8 Figure 5

- 7 Commercial Measure

- level RAP Savings by End Use in 2018 and 2025

................... 5

- 11 Figure 5

- 8 Industrial Measure

- level Potential Savings

................................ ............................ 5

- 13 Figure 5

- 9 Industrial Measure

- level RAP Savings by End Use in 2018 and 2025

...................... 5

- 14 Figure 6

- 1 Summary of Program and Measure

- level RAP and MAP (% of b aseline)

.................... 6

- 6 Figure 6

- 2 RAP Program Potential

- Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh)

............................ 6

- 7 Figure 6

- 3 MAP Program Potential

- Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh)

............................. 6

- 7 Figure 6

- 4 RAP Program Potential

- Annual Utility Budgets

................................ ...................... 6

- 8 Figure 6

- 5 MAP Program Potential

- Annual Utility Budgets

................................ ...................... 6

- 8 Figure 6

- 6 Levelized Cost Supply Curves, 2016

– 2018, RAP and MAP Portfolios

........................ 6

- 13 Figure 6

- 7 Leveli zed Cost Supply Curves, 2016

– 2033 RAP and MAP Portfolios

......................... 6

- 14 Figure 7

- 1 Comparison of Avoided Costs

................................ ................................ ................ 7

- 1 Figure 7

- 2 Comparison of Sensitivity Cases (% change in RAP Potential savings, 2030)

............. 7

- 3 Figure 7

- 3 RAP Program Administrator Costs

– Comparison of Sensitivity Cases

........................ 7

- 6 Figure 7

- 4 MAP Pr ogram Administrator Costs

– Comparison of Sensitivity Cases

....................... 7

- 6EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting ix 

## LIST OF TABLES

Table 1

- 1 Explanation of Abbreviations and Acronyms

................................ ............................ 1

- 6
Table 2

- 1 Overview of Segmentation Scheme for EE Potentials Modeling

................................ 2

- 4
Table 2

- 2 Residential Electric End Uses and Technologies

................................ ...................... 2

- 5
Table 2

- 3 Commercial Electric End Uses and Technologies

................................ ..................... 2

- 6
Table 2

- 4 Industrial Electric End Use s and Technologies

................................ ......................... 2

- 7
Table 2

- 5 Example Equipment Measures for Central Air Conditioning

– Single Family Home

... 2

- 10
Table 2

- 6 Example Non

- Equipment Measures

– Single Family Home, Existing

........................ 2

- 11
Table 2

- 7 Economic Sc reen Results for Selected Residential Equipment Measures

.................. 2

- 12
Table 2

- 8 Number of Measures Evaluated

................................ ................................ ........... 2

- 12
Table 2

- 9 Data Applied for the Market Profiles

................................ ................................ ..... 2

- 16
Table 2

- 10 Data Needs for the Baseline projection and Potentials Estimation in LoadMAP

........ 2

- 16
Table 2

- 11 Residential Electric Equipment Standards

................................ ............................. 2

- 17
Table 2

- 12 Commercial Electric Equipment Standards

................................ ............................ 2

- 18
Table 2

- 13 Data Needs for the Measure Characteristics in LoadMAP

................................ ....... 2

- 19
Table 3

- 1 Residential Sector Energy Usage and Intensity by Segment Type, 2011

................... 3

- 2
Table 3

- 2 Average Electric Market Profile for the Residential Sector, 2011

............................... 3

- 3
Table 3

- 3 Residential Electricity Use by End Use and Segment (kWh/HH/year, 2011)

............... 3

- 4
Table 3

- 4 Commercial Electricity Use by End Use and Segment (2011)

................................ ... 3

- 5
Table 3

- 5 Average Electric Market Profile for the Commercial Sector, 2011

.............................. 3

- 6
Table 3

- 6 Commercial Electricity Consumption by End Use (GWh, 2011)

................................ . 3

- 8
Table 3

- 7 Average Electric Market Profile for the Industrial Sector, 2011

................................ . 3

- 9
Table 4

- 1 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh)

................................ .................. 4

- 1
Table 4

- 2 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use and Technology (GWh)

.......................... 4

- 3
Table 4

- 3 Commercia l Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh)

................................ ................. 4

- 4
Table 4

- 4 Commercial Baseline Forecast by End Use and Technology (GWh)

........................... 4

- 5
Table 4

- 5 Industrial Consumption by End Use (GWh)

................................ ............................. 4

- 6
Table 4

- 6 Baseline Projection Summary (GWh)

................................ ................................ ...... 4

- 7
Table 5

- 1 Summary of Measure

- Level Efficiency Potential

................................ ....................... 5

- 1
Table 5

- 2 Measure

- level Achievable Potential by Sector (GWh)

................................ ............... 5

- 3
Table 5

- 3 Measure

- level EE Potent ial for the Residential Sector

................................ .............. 5

- 4
Table 5

- 4 Residential Measure

- level Potential by Market Segment, 2018

................................ . 5

- 5
Table 5

- 5 Residential Top Measures in RAP in 2018

................................ ............................... 5

- 5
Table 5

- 6 Residential Measure

- level Savings by End Use and Potential Type (GWh)

................. 5

- 7
Table 5

- 7 Measure

- level EE Potential for the Commercial Sector

................................ ............. 5

- 8
Table 5

- 8 Commercial Measure

- le vel Potential by Market Segment, 2018

................................ 5

- 9
Table 5

- 9 Commercial Top 20 Measures in RAP in 2018

................................ ....................... 5

- 10
Table 5

- 10 Commercial Measure

- level Potential by End Use and Potential Type (GWh)

............ 5

- 12
Table 5

- 11 Measure

- level EE Potential for the I ndustrial Sector

................................ .............. 5

- 13
Table 5

- 12 Industrial Top 10 Measures in RAP in 2018

................................ ........................... 5

- 14x www.enernoc.com Table 5

- 13 Industrial Measure

- level Potential by End Use and Potential Type (GWh)

............... 5

- 15
Table 6

- 1 P ortfolio of Energy Efficiency Programs Included in Program Potential

..................... 6

- 1
Table 6

- 2 Summary of Program Potential

................................ ................................ .............. 6

- 6
Table 6

- 3 RAP Program Potential Portfolio Summary

................................ .............................. 6

- 9
Table 6

- 4 MAP Program Potential Portfolio Summary

................................ ........................... 6

- 10
Table 6

- 5 RAP Portfolio Cost

- Effectiveness Summary

................................ ........................... 6

- 11
Table 6

- 6 MAP Portfolio Cost

- Effectiveness Summary

................................ ........................... 6

- 12
Table 6

- 7 Example of Measure Data Preparation for Supply Curve

................................ ........ 6

- 13
Table 6

- 8 Levelized Cost by Program

- RAP and MAP

................................ ........................... 6

- 14
Table 6

- 9 First

- year Cost per kWh by Program

— RAP and MAP

................................ ............ 6

- 15
Table 7

- 1 Number of Measures Passing the Economic Screen

- Comparison

............................ 7

- 2
Table 7

- 2 EE Potential

- Comparison of Avoided Cost Sensitivity Cases (GWh)

......................... 7

- 2
Table 7

- 3 Compari son of Baseline Projection, MAP and RAP for Economic

- Growth Sensitivity

... 7

- 3
Table 7

- 4 RAP Program Administrator Cost

................................ ................................ ............ 7

- 5
Table 7

- 5 MAP Program Administrator Cost

................................ ................................ ........... 7

- 5
Table 7

- 6 RAP Cost

- Effectiveness Across Sensitivity Cases

................................ ...................... 7

- 5
Table 7

- 7 MAP Cost

- Effectiveness Across Sensitivity Cases

................................ ..................... 7

- 5
Tab le B

- 1 Residential Energy Efficiency Equipment Measure Descriptions

................................ B

- 2
Table B

- 2 Residential Energy Efficiency Non

- Equipment Measure Descriptions

......................... B

- 7
Table C

- 1 Commercial Energy Efficiency Equipment Measure Descriptions

.............................. C

- 2
Table C

- 2 Commercial Energy Efficiency Non

- Equipment Measure Descriptions

....................... C

- 5
Table D

- 1 Industrial Energy Efficiency Equipment Measure Descriptions

................................ . D

- 2
Table D

- 2 Industrial Energy Efficiency Non

- Equipment Measure Descriptions

.......................... D

- 4EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 1

- 1 

## INTRODUCTION

Ameren Missouri commissioned this Demand Side Management (DSM) Market Potential Study to assess the various categories of electrical energy efficiency (EE), demand response (DR), and distributed generation/combined heat and power (DG/CHP) potentials in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors for the Ameren Missouri service area from 2016 to 2033. This study uses updated baseline estimates based on the latest information pertaining to f ederal, state, and local codes and standards for improving energy efficiency. It also quantifies and includes estimates of naturally occurring energy efficiency in the baseline projection

. Ameren Missouri will use the results of this study in its integrated resource planning process to analyze various levels of energy efficiency related savings and peak demand reductions attributable to both EE and DR initiatives at various levels of cost. T his study also provides estimated levels of combined heat and power (CHP) and distributed generation (DG) installations over the specified time horizon. Furthermore, Ameren Missouri has adhered to both the Missouri Public Service Commission (“Commission”) rules, 4 CSR 240

- 3.164 regarding potential study requirements for purposes of complying with the Missouri Energy Efficiency Investment Act (MEEIA) and 4 CSR 240

- 22 regarding potential study requirements for Ameren Missouri’s next Integrated Resource Plan ( IRP) to be filed in April 2014. Both rules contain new provisions that were not part of Ameren Missouri’s previous DSM Potential Study published in 2010. Ameren contracted with EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting (EnerNOC) to conduct this study and EnerN OC has performed the following tasks to meet Ameren’s key objectives:

• Conducted primary market research to collect data for the Ameren Missouri service territory, including: electric end

- use data, saturation data, and customer demographics and psychographics.

• Characterized how customers in the Ameren Missouri service territory make decisions related to their electric use and energy efficiency investment decisions. Translated that understanding in a clear and transparent manner to establish annua l market acceptance rates for EE measures.

• Employed updated baselines that reflect both current and anticipated federal, state, and local energy efficiency legislation. Identify all known pending legislation that may also impact DSM potential.

• Developed A meren Missouri

- specific market acceptance rates for EE for the planning cycle of 2016 through 203 4 that, when applied to economic potential, will yield estimates of maximum achievable and realistic achievable potential.

• Analyzed the potential for energy e fficiency, demand response, and customer distributed generation/combined heat and power application over the 2016

- 2033 planning horizon 1

.

• Worked with Ameren Missouri to develop sensitivity analyses for assessing uncertainty around DSM potential.

• Analyzed the impact of demand

- side rates on DSM potential.

• Provided a series of webinars for Missouri stakeholders to review study assumptions and provide comments for consideration.

1 Although estimates were developed through 2034, we show results for 2033, which is 20 years out from the start of the forecas t in 2014. 

### CHAPTER 1Introduction

1

- 2 www.enernoc.com • Clearly communicated the DSM potential and uncertainty in an objective way that is useful for the Commission, Ameren senior management, Missouri stakeholders, Ameren DSM staff, Ameren EE Implementation team, and Ameren IRP staff

– both operational and planning. This includes the following:

o Documented compliance with IRP/MEEIA rule refe rences, including specific references to rule requirements.

o Provided measure

- level information, in a way that is readily compatible with Ameren Missouri’s modeling methodology in DSMore.

o Generated energy efficiency potential supply curves, which clearly sh ow the incremental cost (in dollars per kWh) of increasing DSM energy efficiency efforts (in kWh) over the 2016

- 2033 planning horizon.

o Generated demand response potential supply curves, which clearly show the incremental cost (in dollars per kW) of increa sing DSM demand response efforts (in kW) over the 2016

- 2033 planning horizon.

o Generated distributed generation/combined heat and power potential supply curves, which clearly show the incremental cost (in dollars per kW) of increasing DG/CHP efforts (in kW ) over the 2016

- 2033 planning horizon.


## Report Organization This report is presented in 5 volumes as outlined below. This document is Volume 3: Energy Efficiency Analysis

.

• Volume 1, Executive Summary

• Volume 2, Market Research

• Volume 3, Energy Efficiency An alysis

• Volume 4, Demand Response Analysis

• Volume 5, Distributed Generation Analysis

• Volume 6, Demand

- side Rates Analysis


## Background Ameren Corporation is a large investor

- owned utility serving large parts of Missouri and Illinois. Figure 1

- 1 below presents Ameren Missouri’s service territory.Introduction

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 1

- 3 Figure 1

- 1 Ameren Missouri Service Territory



### Ameren Missouri DSM Overview The Missouri Rules of the Department of Economic Development (4 CSR 240

- 22) require that electric utilities in Missouri prepare an integrated resource plan (IRP) that “[c]onsider[s] and analyze[s] demand

- side efficiency and energy management measures on an equivalent basis with supply

- side alternatives in the resource planning process.” per Section 4 CSR 240

- 22.010(2)(A). Section 4 CSR 240

- 22.050 prescribes the elements of the demand

- side analysis, including reporting requirements. A copy of t he Missouri rules governing electric utility resource planning is available on the Missouri Secretary of State’s website. Details of the Missouri Energy Efficiency Investment Act (MEEIA) are available on the Missouri Public Service Commission website.

Ove r the past several years, Ameren Missouri has been implementing EE programs and analyzing EE as a long

- term resource option. From 2009 through September, 2011, Ameren Missouri implemented full

- scale EE programs including five residential and four business programs. Ameren Missouri spent approximately $70 million on energy efficiency programs between 2009 and 2011 and achieved approximately 550,000 MWH of verified energy savings. This level of expenditure resulted in deployment of approximately:

• 4 million CF Ls

• 21,000 Energy Star® appliancesIntroduction

1

- 4 www.enernoc.com • 12,000 Multi

- Family Income Qualified (“MFIQ”) tenant units

• 9,000 decommissioned refrigerators and freezers

• 3,000 new residential central air conditioning systems

• 3,000 business projects

In 2012, Ameren Missouri scaled back its energy efficiency expenditures to $10 million due to uncertainty regarding regulatory framework issues for its next cycle of energy efficiency programs. Concurrently, in January 2012, Ameren Missouri filed its first 3

- year EE implementation plan under the new Missouri rules implementing MEEIA.



## Definitions of Potential In this study, we estimate the potential for energy efficiency savings. The savings estimates represent net savings 2 developed into three types of potential: technical potential, economic potential, and achievable potential. Technical and economic potential are both theoretical limits to efficiency savings. Achievable potential embodies a set of assumptions about the de cisions consumers make regarding the efficiency of the equipment they purchase, the maintenance activities they undertake, the controls they use for energy

- consuming equipment, and the elements of building construction. Because estimating achievable potent ial involves the inherent uncertainty of predicting human behaviors and responses to market conditions , we developed realistic and maximum achievable potential as boundaries for a likely range . The various levels are described below.

• Technical Potential is defined as the theoretical upper limit of energy efficiency potential. It assumes that customers adopt all feasible measures regardless of their cost. At the time of existing equipment failure, customers replace their equipment with the most efficient opt ion available. In new construction, customers and developers also choose the most efficient equipment option. Examples of measures that make up technical potential for electricity in the residential sector include ductless mini

- split air conditioners with variable refrigerant flow and ground source (or geothermal) heat pumps.

Technical potential also assumes the adoption of every other available measure, where applicable. For example, it includes installation of high

- efficiency windows in all new construc tion opportunities and air conditioner maintenance in all existing buildings with central and room air conditioning. These retrofit measures are phased in over a number of years, which is longer for higher

- cost and complex measures.

• Economic P otential rep resents the adoption of all cost

- effective energy efficiency measures. In this analysis, the cost

- effectiveness is measured by the total resource cost (TRC) test, which compares lifetime energy and capacity benefits to the incremental cost of the measure. If the benefits outweigh the costs (that is, if the TRC ratio is greater than 1.0), a given measure is considered in the economic potential. Customers are then assumed to purchase the most cost

- effective option applicable to them at any decision juncture

.

• Maximum Achievable Potential (MAP) estimates customer adoption of economic measures when delivered through efficiency programs under ideal market, implementation, and customer preference conditions and an appropriate regulatory framework. Information chann els are assumed to be established and efficient for marketing, educating consumers, and coordinating with trade allies and delivery partners. Maximum Achievable Potential establishes a maximum t arget for the EE savings that an administrator can hope to ach ieve through its EE programs and involves incentives that represent a substantial portion of the incremental cost combined with high administrative and marketing costs.

2 Savings in “net” terms instead of “gross” terms mean that the baseline projection does include naturally occurring efficiency . In other words, the baseline assumes that energy efficiency levels reflect that some customers are already purchasing the more e fficient option. In the baseline projection chapter we explore other types of baselines, including a codes and standards case and a business

- as

- usual

case.Introduction

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 1

- 5 • Realistic Achievable Potential (RAP) reflects expected program participation given bar riers to customer acceptance, non

- ideal implementation conditions, and limited program budgets. This represents a lower bound on achievable potential.


## Abbreviations and Acronyms Throughout the report we use several abbreviations and acronyms. Table 1

- 1 shows the abbreviation or acronym, along with an explanation.Introduction

1

- 6 www.enernoc.com Table 1

- 1 Explanation of Abbreviations and Acronyms
Acronym Explanation

ACS American Community Survey

AEO Annual Energy Outlook forecast developed by EIA

A HAM Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers B/C Ratio Benefit to c ost r atio

BEST EnerNOC’s Building Energy Simulation Tool

CAC Central air conditioning

C&I Commercial and i ndustrial

CFL Compact fluorescent lamp

DEEM EnerNOC’s Database of Energy Efficiency Measures

DEER State of California Database for Energy

- Efficient Resources

DSM Demand side management

DR Demand r esponse

EE Energy e fficiency

EIA Energy Information Administration

EISA Energy Efficiency and Security Act of 2007

EPACT Energy Policy Act of 2005

EPRI Electric Power Research Institute

EUI Energy

- use i ndex

HH Household

HID High intensity discharge lamps

LED Light emitting diode lamp

LoadMAP EnerNOC’s Load Management Analysis and Planning TM tool

MAP Maximum achievable potential

NWPCC Northwest Power and Conservation Council

RAP Realistic achievable potential

RTU Roof top unit Sq. ft. Square feet

TRC Total r esource c ost

TRM Technical Reference Manual

UEC Unit e nergy c onsumptionEnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2

- 1 

## ANALYSIS APPROACH AN D DATA DEVELOPMENT

This section describes the analysis approach taken for the study and the data sources used to develop the potential estimates.


## Analysis Approach To perform the energy efficiency analysis, EnerNOC used a bottom

- up analysis approach as shown in Figure 2

- 1 . This involved the following steps.

1. Held a meetin g with Ameren staff and stakeholders to refine the objectives of the project in detail . This resulted in a work plan for the study.

2. Conducted primary market research to identify equipment saturations, building characteristics, measure applicability and saturations, occupant behavior, and customer interest in programs. 3

3. Performed a market characterization to describe sector

- leve l electricity use for the residential , commercial, and industrial sectors for the base year

, 2011. This included using the results from the customer surveys and other secondary data sources such as the Energy Information Administration ( EIA )

. 4. Developed a b aseline projection by sector, segment, and end use for 20 12 through 2033

. Results presented in this volume focus on the three

- year implementation cycle of 201 6

- 2018 as well as the longer term horizon through 2033

. 5. Identified several hundred measures and e stimated their effects in four levels of energy

efficiency potential: Technical, Economic, Maximum Achievable

, and Realistic Achievable

. Measure costs and savings were taken from the Missouri TRM where available.

6. Reviewe d the current programs offered by A meren in light of the study findings to make strategic program recommendations for achieving savings.

7. Created detailed program plans representing the program potential for Ameren, basing them on the potential analysis and strategic recommendations develop ed in the previous steps.

8. Used program d esign analysis to develop supply curves.

The se steps are described in further detail throughout the remainder of this chapter.

3 Details on the market research methodology and results are available in Volume 2, Market Research. 

### CHAPTER 2Analysis Approach and D ata Development

2

- 2 www.enernoc.com Figure 2

- 1 Overview of Analysis Approach



### LoadMAP Model

We used EnerNOC ’s Load Management Analysis and Planning tool (LoadMAP TM ) version 3.0 to develop both the baseline projection and the estimates of energy efficiency potential. EnerNOC developed LoadMAP in 2007 and has enhanced it over time, using it for the EPRI National Potential Study and numerous utility

- specific forecasting and potential studies. Built in Excel, the LoadMAP framework (se e Figure 2

- 2 ) is both accessible and transparent and has the following key features.

• Embodies the basic principles of rigorous end

- use models (such as EPRI’s REEPS and COMMEND) but in a more simplified, a ccessible form.

• Includes stock

- accounting algorithms that treat older, less efficient appliance/equipment stock separately from newer, more efficient equipment. Equipment is replaced according to the measure life and appliance vintage distributions define d by the user.

• Balances the competing needs of simplicity and robustness by incorporating important modeling details related to equipment saturations, efficiencies, vintage, and the like, where market data are available, and treats end uses separately to a ccount for varying importance and availability of data resources.

• Isolates new construction from existing equipment and buildings and treats purchase decisions for new construction and existing buildings separately.

• Uses a simple logic for appliance and equipment decisions. Other models available for this purpose embody complex decision choice algorithms or diffusion assumptions, and the modelAnalysis Approach and Data Development

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2

- 3 parameters tend to be difficult to estimate or observe and sometimes produce anomalous results that require calib ration or even overriding. The LoadMAP approach allows the user to drive the appliance and equipment choices year by year directly in the model. This flexible approach allows users to import the results from diffusion models or to input individual assumpti ons. The framework also facilitates sensitivity analysis.

• Includes appliance and equipment models customized by end use. For example, the logic for lighting is distinct from refrigerators and freezers.

• Can accommodate various levels of segmentation. Anal ysis can be performed at the sector level (e.g., total residential) or for customized segments within sectors (e.g., housing type or income level).
Consistent with the segmentation scheme and the market profiles we describe below, the LoadMAP model provide s forecasts of baseline energy use by sector, segment, end use

, and technology for existing and new buildings. It also provides forecasts of total energy use and energy

- efficiency savings associated with the four types of potential. 4

Figure 2

- 2 LoadMAP Analysis Framework



### Market Characterization In order to estimate the savings potential from energy

- efficient measures, it is necessary to understand how much energy is used today and what equipment is currently being used. This characterization begins with a segmentation of Ameren ’s e lectricity foot print to quantify energy use by sector, segment, end

- use application, and the current set of technologies used. We incorporate information from the customer surveys performed for this study, the 2010 Ameren DSM Potential Study (2010 Study) and secondary re search sources to advise the market characterization.

4 The model computes energy and peak

- demand forecasts for each type of potential for each end use as an intermediate calculation. Annual

- energy and peak

- demand savings are calculated as the difference between the value in the baseline projection and the v alue in the potential forecast (e.g., the technical potential forecast). Forecast Data

Market Profiles

Market size Equipment saturation Fuel shares Technology shares Vintage distribution

Unit energy consumption

Coincident demand Base

- year Energy Consumption by technology, end use, segment,

vintage & sector Economic Data Customer growth

Energy prices Exogenous factors Elasticities

Energy

- efficiency analysis Forecast Results

List of measures

Saturations Adoption rates Avoided costs Cost

- effectiveness screening Baseline forecast

Savings Estimates (Annual & peak) Technical potential Economic potential Achievable potential Customer segmentation Energy

- efficiency forecasts : Technical Economic Achievable Technology Data Efficiency options Codes and standards

Purchase sharesAnalysis Approach and Data Development

2

- 4 www.enernoc.com Segmentation for Modeling Purposes
The market assessment first defined the market segments (building types, end uses and other dimensions) that are relevant in the Ameren service territory . The segment ation scheme for this project is presented in Table 2

- 1

.

Table 2

- 1 Ov erview of Segmentation Scheme for EE Potentials Modeling

Market
Dimension Segmentation Variable Dimension Examples

1 Sector Residential, commercial, industrial

2 Building type Residential ( single family, multi family ) Commercial ( o ffice, r estaurant, r etail, etc.) Industrial

3 Vintage Existing and new construction

4 End uses Cooling, lighting, water heat, motors, etc. (as appropriate by sector)

5 Appliances/end uses and technologies Technologies such as lamp type, air conditioning equipment, motors by application, etc.

6 Equipment efficiency levels for new purchases Baseline and higher

- efficiency options as appropriate for each technology

Following this scheme, the re sidential sector was segmented into two housing types: s ingle family and m ulti

- fa mily

. In addition to segmentation by housing type, we identified the set of end uses and technologies that are appropriate for Ameren . These are shown in Table 2

- 2

.Analysis Approach and Data Development

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2

- 5 Table 2

- 2 Residential Electric End Uses and Technologies

End Use Technology Cooling Central AC Cooling Room AC Cooling Air

- Source Heat Pump Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump Heating Electric Resistance Heating Furnace Heating Air

- Source Heat Pump Heating Geothermal Heat Pump Water Heating Water Heater <= 55 gal Water Heating Water Heater > 55 gal Interior Lighting Screw

- in Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent Interior Lighting Specialty Exterior Lighting Screw

- in Appliances Refrigerator Appliances Second Refrigerator Appliances Freezer Appliances Clothes Washer Appliances Clothes Dryer Appliances Dishwasher Appliances Stove Appliances Microwave
Electronics Personal Computers
Electronics Monitor
Electronics Laptops
Electronics TVs
Electronics Printer/Fax/Copier
Electronics Set

- top Boxes/DVR
Electronics Devices and Gadgets
Miscellaneous Air Purifier/Cleaner
Miscellaneous Dehumidifier
Miscellaneous Pool Pump
Miscellaneous Pool Heater
Miscellaneous Hot Tub / Spa
Miscellaneous Furnace Fan
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous

For the commercial sector, it is useful to analyze the segments based on the unique characteristics of the building type. For this study, we used the following segments

.

• O ffice s

— all types including medical/dental offices and government offices

• Restaurant

— fast

- food, sit

- down and cafeteria

- style restaurants

• Retail

— retail establishments such as small boutiques, and large box retailers

• Grocery

— convenience stores, small markets, and supermarkets

• Education

— primary and secondary schools, colleges, universities an d technical colleges

• Health

— hospitals and nursing homesAnalysis Approach and Data Development

2

- 6 www.enernoc.com • Lodging

— motels, hotels, resorts and small inns

• Warehouse

— storage facilities, refrigerated and unrefrigerated

• Miscellaneous

— all remaining building types, such as police stations, parking garages, publi c assembly, amusement parks, etc.
In addition to segmentation by building type, we identified the set of end uses and technologies that are appropriate for Ameren

. Table 2

- 3 list s the end uses and technologies used in this study.

Table 2

- 3 Commercial Electric End Uses and Technologies

End Use Technology Cooling Air

- Cooled Chiller Cooling Water

- Cooled Chiller Cooling Roof top AC Cooling Air Source Heat Pump Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump Cooling PTAC Cooling PTHP Heating Electric Furnace Heating Air Source Heat Pump Heating Geothermal Heat Pump Heating Electric Room Heat Heating PTHP Ventilation Ventilation Water Heating Water Heating Interior Lighting Screw

- in Interior Lighting High

- Bay Fixtures Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent Exterior Lighting Screw

- in Exterior Lighting HID Exterior Lighting Linear Fluorescent Refrigeration Walk

- in Refrigerator Refrigeration Reach

- in Refrigerator Refrigeration Glass Door Display Refrigeration Open Display Case Refrigeration Icemaker Refrigeration Vending Machine Food Preparation Oven Food Preparation Fryer Food Preparation Dishwasher Food Preparation Hot Food Container Office Equipment Desktop Computer Office Equipment Laptop Office Equipment Server Office Equipment Monitor Office Equipment Printer/Copier/Fax Office Equipment POS Terminal
Miscellaneous Non

- HVAC Motors Miscellaneous Pool Pump
Miscellaneous Pool Heater
Miscellaneous Clothes Washer
Miscellaneous Clothes Dryer
Miscellaneous MiscellaneousAnalysis Approach and Data Development

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2

- 7 The industrial sector was modeled as a whole. The set of end uses and technologies that are appropriate for Ameren ’s industrial sector are shown in Table 2

- 4

.

Table 2

- 4 Industrial Electric End Uses and Technologies

End Use Technology Cooling Air

- Cooled Chiller Cooling Water

- Cooled Chiller Cooling Roof top AC Cooling Air

- Source Heat Pump Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump Cooling PTAC Cooling PTHP Heating Electric Furnace Heating Air

- Source Heat Pump Heating Geothermal Heat Pump Heating Electric Room Heat Heating PTHP
Ventilation Ventilation Interior Lighting Screw

- in Interior Lighting High

- Bay Fixtures
Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent Exterior Lighting Screw

- in Exterior Lighting HID Exterior Lighting Linear Fluorescent

Motors Pumps
Motors Fans & Blowers

Motors Compressed Air

Motors Material Handling

Motors Material Processing

Motors Other Motors

Process Process Heating

Process Process Cooling and Refrigeration

Process Electro

- Chemical Processes

Process Other Process
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous

With the segmentation scheme defined, we then performed a high

- level market characterization of electricity sales in the base year to allocate sales to each customer segment. We used various data sources to identify the annual sales in each customer segmen t, as well as the market size for each segment . This information provided control totals at a sector level for calibrating the LoadMAP model to known data for the base

- year

.



### Market Profiles The next step was to develop market profiles for each sector, cus tomer segment, end use

, and technology. A market profile includes the following elements:

• Market size is a representation of the number of customers in the segment. For the residential sector, it is number of households. In the commercial sector, it is flo or space measured in square feet. For the industrial sector, it is number of employees.

• Saturations define the fractio n of homes and square feet with the various technologies. (e.g., homes with electric space heating).Analysis Approach and Data Develo pment

2

- 8 www.enernoc.com • UEC (unit energy consumption) or EUI (energy

- use index) describes the amount of energy consumed in 2011 by a specific technology in buildings that have the technology. For electricity, UECs are expressed in kWh/household for the residential sector, and EUI s are expressed in kWh/square foot or kWh/employee for the commercial and industrial sector s, respectively

.

• Intensity for the residential sector represents the average energy use for the technology across all homes in 2011 . It is computed as the product o f the saturation and the UEC and is defined as kWh/household for electricity. For the commercial and industrial sector s , intensity, computed as the product of the saturation and the EUI, represents the average use for the technology across all floor space or all employees in 2011

.

• Usage is the annual energy use by an end use technology in the segment. It is the product of the market size and intensity and is quantified in GWh

. The market assessment results and the market profiles are presented in Chapter 3.



### Baseline Projection The next step was to develop the baseline projection of annual electricity use for 2012 through 2033 by customer segment and end use without new utility programs. The end

- use projection include s the relatively certain impacts of codes and standards that will unfold over the study timeframe. All such mandates that were defined as of January 2013 are included in the baseline. The baseline projection is the foundation for the analysis of savings fro m future EE efforts as well as the metric against which potential savings are measured.
Inputs to the baseline projection include:

• Current economic growth forecasts (i.e., customer growth, income growth )

• Electricity price forecasts

• Trends in fuel shares an d equipment saturations

• Existing and approved changes to building codes and equipment standards

• Naturally occurring efficiency improvements, which include purchases of high

- efficiency equipment options by early adopters.

In addition to the baseline projection that includes naturally occurring efficiency improvements, the study also developed a projection that does not include these naturally occurring improvements. It is based on purchase shares that are held fixed a t the minimum efficiency leve l

ava ilable in the marketplace. The difference between these two projections is the amount of naturally occurring efficiency. We present the baseline

- projection results , along with estimates of naturally occurring efficiency savings, in Chapter 4.



### Energy Effici ency Measure Analysis This section describes the framework used to assess the savings, costs, and other attributes of energy

- efficiency measures. These characteristics form the basis for measure

- level cost

effectiveness analyses as well as for determining measure

- level savings. For all measures, EnerNOC assembled information to reflect equipment performance, incremental costs, and equipment lifetimes. We used this information, along with Ameren ’s avoided costs data , in the economic screen to determine econo mically feasible measures. Figure 2

- 3 outlines the framework for measure analysis.Analysis Approach and Data Development

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2

- 9 Figure 2

- 3 Approach for Measure Assessment

The framework for assessing savings, costs, and other attributes of energy efficiency measures involves identifying the list of energy efficiency measures to include in the analysis, dete rmining their applicability to each market sector and segment, fully characterizing each measure, and performing cost

- effectiveness screening.
We compiled a robust list of energy efficiency measures for each customer sec tor, drawing upon Ameren program ex perience and protocols, the Missouri TRM, EnerNOC’s own measure databases and building simulation models, and secondary sources . This universal list of EE measures covers all major types of end

- use equipment, as well as devices and actions to reduce energy consumption. If considered today, some of these measures would not pass the economic screens initially, but may pass in future years as a result of lower projected equipment costs or higher avoided costs.
The selected measures are categorized into two typ es according to the LoadMAP taxonomy: equipment measures and non

- equipment measures

.

• Equipment measures are efficient energy

- consuming pieces of equipment that save energy by providing the same service with a lower energy requirement than a standard unit. An example is an ENERGY STAR refrigerator that replaces a standard efficiency refrigerator. For equipment measures, many efficiency levels may be available for a given technology, ranging from the baseline unit (often determined by code or standard) up to the most efficient product commercially available. For instance, in the case of central air conditioners, this list begins with the current federal standard SEER 13 unit and spans a broad spectrum up to a maximum efficiency of a SEER 21 unit.

• Non

- equipmen t measures save energy by reducing the need for delivered energy, but do not involve replacement or purchase of major end

- use equipment (such as a refrigerator or air conditioner). An example would be a programmable thermostat that is pre

- set to run heatin g and cooling systems only when people are home. Non

- equipment measures can Economic

screen Measure characterization Measure descriptions

Energy savings Costs

Lifetime Applicability EnerNOC universal measure list

Building simulations EnerNOC measure data library Client measure data library (TRMs, evaluation reports, etc)

Avoided costs, discount rate, delivery losses Client review /

feedback

**Inputs Process** Analysis Approach and Data Development

2

- 10 www.enernoc.com apply to more than one end use. For instance, addition of wall insulation will affect the energy use of both space heating and cooling. Non

- e quipment m easures typically fall into

o ne of the following categories:

o Building shell (windows, insulation, roofing material)

o Equipment controls (thermostat, energy management system)

o Equipment maintenance (cleaning filters, changing setpoints)

o Whole

- building design (building orientation, pass ive solar lighting)

o Lighting retrofits (included as a non

- equipment measure because retrofits are performed prior to the equipment’s normal end of life)

o Displacement measures (ceiling fan to reduce use of central air conditioners)

o Commissioning and retroco mmissioning
We developed a preliminary list of EE measures , which was distributed to Ameren staff and stakeholders for review. The list was finalized af ter incorporating comments and is presented in the appendix to this volume.

Once we assembled the list of EE measures, the project team assessed their energy

- saving characteristics. For each measure we also characterized incremental cost, service life, and other performance factors. Following the measure characterization, we performed an economic screening of each measure, which serves as the basis for developing the economic and achievable potential.

Representative Measure Data Inputs To provide an example of the measure data, Table 2

- 5 and Table 2

- 6 pre sent ex amples of the detailed data inputs behind both equipment and non

- equipment measures, respectively, for the case of resident ial CAC in single

- family homes. Table 2

- 5 displays the various efficiency levels available as equipment measures, as well as the corresponding useful life, energy usage, and cost estimates. The columns labeled On Market and Off Market reflect equipment availability due to codes and standards or the entry of n ew products to the market.

Table 2

- 5 Ex ample Equipment Measures for Central Air Conditioning

– Single Family Home

Efficiency Level Useful Life Equipment
Cost Energy Usage(kWh/yr) On Market Off Market

SEER 13 18 $ 3,311 2, 287 201 1 n/a SEER 14 (ENERGY STAR) 18 $ 3,716 2, 097 2011 n/a SEER 15 (CEE Tier 2) 18 $ 4,120 2, 013 2011 n/a SEER 16 (CEE Tier 3) 18 $ 4,524 1
, 942 2011 n/a SEER 17 ( Ductless Mini

- split ) 18 $ 5,943 1
, 882 2011 n/a

SEER 21 18 $ 6,395 1, 524 2011 n/a

Table 2

- 6 lists some of the non

- equipment measures applicable to CAC in an existing single

family home. All measures are evaluated for cost

- effectiveness based on the lifetime benefits relative to the cost of the measure. The total savings and costs are calculated for each year of the study and depend on the base year saturation of the measure, the applicability 5 of the measure, and the savings as a percentage of the relevant energy end uses.

5 The applicability factors take into account whether the measure is applicable to a particular building type and whether it is feasible to install the measure. For instance, attic fa ns are not applicable to homes where there is insufficient space in the attic or there is no attic at all.Analysis Approach and Data Development

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2

- 11 Table 2

- 6 Ex ample Non

- Equipment Measures

– Single Family Home, Existing

End Use Measure Saturation
in 2011 6 Applica

bility Lifetime (yrs) Measure Installed

Cost Energy Savings (%)

Cooling Central AC

- Maintenance 37 % 100% 2 $1 7 5 5 % Cooling Repair and Sealing

– Ducting 1 6 % 50% 18 $ 498 16 % Cooling Insulation

- Ceiling 33 % 38 % 20 $ 363 1 % Cooling Windows

– Install Reflective Film 5 % 45% 10 $ 1,029 11 % Cooling Windows

- ENERGY STAR 47 % 90% 2 0 $ 7,134 32 %

Screening Measures for Cost

- Effectiveness Only measures that are cost

- effective are included in economic and achievable potential

. Therefore

, for each individual measure , LoadMAP performs an economic screen. T his study uses the TRC test that compares the lifetime energy benefits ( and peak demand for electricity ) of each applicable measure with its incremental installed cost , including material and labor . There is no program administration cost considered in thi s analysis, and therefore, no specific program delivery methods or mechanism s are assumed. The lifetime benefits are calculated by multiplying the annual energy and demand savings for each measure by all appropriate avoided costs for each year, and discoun ting the dollar savings to the present value equivalent. The analysis uses each measure’s values for savings, costs

, and lifetimes that were developed as part of the measure characterization process described above.
The LoadMAP model performs this screeni ng dynamically, taking into account changing savings and cost data over time. Thus, some measures pass the economic screen for some

— but not all

— of the years in the forecast.
It is important to note the following about the economic screen:

• The economic evaluation of every measure in the screen is conducted relative to a baseline condition. For instance, in order to determine the kilowatt

- hour (kWh) savings potential of a measure, kWh consumption with the measure applied must be compared to t he kWh consumption of a baseline condition.

• The economic screening was conducted only for measures that are applicable to each building type and vintage; thus if a measure is deemed to be irrelevant to a particular building type and vintage, it is exclude d from the respective economic screen.

Table 2

- 7 shows the results of the economic screen , highlighting the economic unit for a central air

- source heat pump and selec t other measures

. In 2014, the federal minimum standard efficiency for heat pumps changes from SEER 13 to SEER 14

. Before this change, the cost is prohibitive to improve from a SEER 13 baseline

. After 2014, however, the incremental cost to go from a SEER 1 4 to a SEER 15 is proportionally less, thereby making this measure cost

- effective. For pool heaters, a heat pump unit is cost effective in all years. For refrigerators , the AHAM federal efficiency standards cause existing Energy Star units to become obsolete in 2014. Units compliant with AHAM 2014 thus become the new minimum efficiency baseline. Since there is not a more efficient, cost

- effective unit available, they become both the baseline unit and the economic unit by default. If the measure passes the screen (has a B/C ratio greater t han or equal to 1 ), the measure is included in economic potential. Otherwise, it is screened out for that
year. If multiple equipment measures have B/C ratios greater than or equal to 1.0, the most efficient technology is selected by the economic screen.

6 Note that saturation levels reflected for the base year change over time as more measures are adopted.Analysis Approach and Data Development

2

- 12 www.enernoc.com Table 2

- 7 Economic Screen Results for Selected Residential Equipment Measures
Technology 2016 2017 2018

Air Source Heat Pump SEER 16 SEER 16 SEER 16

Pool Heater Electric Resistance Electric Resistance Heat Pump (COP = 5.0)
Refrigerator AHAM (2014) AHAM (2014) AHAM (2014)

Table 2

- 8 summarizes the number of equipment and non

- equipment measures evaluated for each segment within each sector.

Table 2

- 8 Number of Measures Evaluated

Residential Commercial Industrial Total Number of Measures
Equipment Measures Evaluated 115 151 102 368

Non

- Equipment Measures Evaluated 47 85 67 199

Total Measures Evaluated 162 236 169 567

The appendix to this volume presents results for the economic screening process by segment, vintage, end use and measure for all sectors

. 

### Energy

- Efficiency Potential The approach we used for this study adheres to the approaches and conventions outlined in the National Action Plan for Energy

- Efficiency (NAPEE) Guide for Conducting Potential Studies (November 2007). 7 The NAPEE Guide represents the most credible and comprehensive industry practice for specifying energy

- efficiency potential. As described in Ch apter 1, four types of potentials were developed as part of this effort : Technical potential, Economic potential, Realistic Achievable Potential and Maximum Achievable potential

. The calculation of Technical and Economic potential is a straightforward algo rithm. To develop estimates for A chievable potential , we develop market adoption rates for each measure that specify the percentage of customers that will select the highest

– efficiency economic option. The market adoption rates are developed based on the r esults of the program interest surveys that were conducted as part of the primary market research. This more accurately reflects the attitudes of Ameren Missouri’s customers.

• For Realistic Achievable , we used the average take rates for a 3

- year payback per iod for the measure. Several measures were tested in the survey. These were then mapped to the other remaining measures based on familiarity and ease of installing.

• For Maximum Achievable , we used the 1

- year payback take rates for those respondents that w ere more aware and/or more experienced with the measure. This represents a scenario where customers are aware of the measure and the program and receive a higher incentive that reduces the payback to one year. Volume 2 provides detailed information about t he estimation of take rates.
Based on EnerNOC’s experience running programs and evaluating programs at other utilities, we estimate that the take rates will increase slightly each year as the program and awareness ramps up. Therefore we increase the base y ear take rates by 0.5% per year. T he measure

- level potential results are presented in Chapter 5.

7 National Action Plan for Energy Efficienc y (2007). National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Vision for 2025: Developing a Framework for Change

. www.epa.gov/eeactionplan

.Analysis Approach and Data Development

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2

- 13 

### Program P otential We then developed preliminary energy efficiency programs for the purpose of developing su pply curves. In this step, cost

- effective measures are mapped into a specific set of programs. We describe the programs in terms of cost s , savings, strategy, and delivery mechanism. Incentive strategies are set and quantified in terms of the appropriate portion of incremental measure costs

. In turn, the va rious program costs (implementation, marketing & education, evaluation, and administration) are added to the incentive budget using best practice research, industry benchmarks, and market trends.

We created two levels of program potential that correspond w ith measure

- level MAP and RAP potential. In their development, we considered industry benchmarks , past Ameren programs, and feedback from Ameren staff. Program

- level results and supply curves are presented in Chapter 6.


## Data Development

This section detai ls the data sources used in this study, followed by a discussion of how these sources were applied . In general, data were adapted to local conditions, for example, by using local sources for measure data and local weather for building simulations.



### Data Sou rces The data sources are organized into the following categories:

• Ameren data

• EnerNOC’s databases and analysis tools

• Other secondary data and reports

Ameren Data Our highest priority data sources for this study were those that were specific to Ameren

.

• Am eren customer data : Ameren provided billing data for non

- residential customer establishments. These data were used to develop the sample designs and for the customer surveys.

• Load forecasts : Ameren provided an economic growth forecast by sector; electric load forecast; peak

- demand forecasts at the sector level; and retail electricity price history and forecasts.

• Economic information : Ameren provided avoided cost forecasts, a discount rate, and line loss factor.

• Missouri TRM: Ameren provided the Missouri T RM and EnerNOC used it to characterize the energy efficiency measures evaluated in this study.

• Ameren program data : Ameren provided information about past and current programs, including program descriptions, goals and achievements to date

. EnerNOC mainta ins several databases and modeling tools that we use for forecasting and poten tial studies.

• EnerNOC Energy Market Profiles : For more than 10 years, EnerNOC staff have maintained profiles of end

- use consumption for the residenti al, commercial, and industri al

se ctors. These profiles include market size, fuel shares, unit consumption estimates, and annual energy use by fuel (electricity and na tural gas), customer segment and end use for 10 regions in the U.S. The Energy Information Administration surveys (REC S, CBECS and MECS) as well as state

- level statistics and local customer research provide the foundation for these regional profiles.Analysis Approach and Data Development

2

- 14 www.enernoc.com • Building Energy Simulation Tool (BEST)

. EnerNOC’s BEST is a derivative of the DOE 2.2 building simulation model, used to es timate base

- year UECs and EUIs, as well as measure savings for the HVAC

- related measures.

• EnerNOC’s EnergyShape TM : This database of load shapes includes the following: Residential

– electric load shapes for 10 regions, 3 housing types, 13 end uses ; Commerci al

– electric load shapes for 9 regions, 54 building types, 10 end uses ; Industrial

– e lectric load shapes, whole facility only, 19 2

- digit SIC codes, as well as various 3

- digit and 4

- digit SIC codes

• EnerNOC’s Database of Energy Efficiency Measures (DEEM) : EnerNOC maintains an extensive database of measure data for our studies. Our database draws upon reliable sources including the California Database for Energy Efficient Resources (DEER), the EIA Technology Forecast Updates

– Residential and Commercial Bu ilding Technologies

– Reference Case, RS Means cost data, and Grainger Catalog Cost data

.

• Recent s tudies

. EnerNOC has conducted numerous studies of EE potential in the last five years. We checke d our input assumptions and analysis results against the resu lts from these other studies, which include the 2010 Ameren Missouri Study, Indianapolis Power & Light, Tennessee Valley Authority, Ameren Illinois, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, Consolidated Edison of New York, Avista Utilities, the State of New Mexico, and Seattle City Light. In addition, we used the information about impacts of building codes and appliance standards from recent report s for the Edison Electric Institute 8

. Other Secondary Data and Reports Finally, a variety of secondary data s ources and reports were used for this study. The main sources are identified below.

• Annual Energy Outlook . The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), conducted each year by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents yearly projections and analysis of energy topics. For this study, we used data from the 201 3 AEO.

• American Community Survey: The US Census American Community Survey is an ongoing survey that provides data every year on household characteristics . Data for Ameren were available for this study. http://www.census.gov/acs/www/

• Missouri Weather Data: Weather from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center for St. Louis was used as the basi s for building simulations.

• EPRI End

- Use Models (REEPS and COMMEND) . These models provide the elas ticities we apply to electricity prices, household income, home size and heating and cooling.

• Database for Energy Efficient Resources (DEER). The California Energy Commission and California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) sponsor this database, which is designed to provide well

- documented estimates of energy and peak demand savings values, measure costs, and effective useful life (EUL) for th e state of California

. We used the DEER database to cross check the measure savings we developed using BEST and DEEM.

• Northwest Power and Conservation Council Sixth Plan workbooks. To develop its Power Plan, the Council maintains workbooks with detailed in formation about measures.

• Other relevant regional sources: These include reports from the Consortium for Energy Efficiency, the EPA, and the American Council for an Energy

- Efficient Economy.

8 EnerNOC staff have prepared three white papers on the topic of factors that affect U.S. electricity consumption, including appliance standards and building codes. Links to all three white papers are provided: http:// www.edisonfoundation.net/IEE/Documents/IEE_RohmundApplianceStandardsEfficiencyCodes1209.pdf http://www.edisonfoundation.net/iee/Documents/IEE _CodesandStandardsAssessment_2010

- 2025_UPDATE.pdf

. http://www.edisonfoundation.net/iee/Documents/IEE_FactorsAffectingUSElecConsumption_Final.pdfAnalysis Approach and Data Development

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2

- 15 

### Application of Data to the Analysis
We now discuss how the data sources described above were used for each step of the study.

Data Application for Market Characterization To construct the high

- level market characterization of electricity use and households/floor space for the residential, commercial, and industrial sec tors, we applied the following data sources:

• Ameren customer surveys to allocate residential customers by housing type . This was compared to American Community Survey (ACS) and the 2010 Ameren study.

• Ameren billing data and customer surveys to estimate sa les and square footage by building type for the commercial sector . The estimates were also compared with the 2010 Ameren study, estimates used by Load Forecasting, and our Energy Market Profiles Database

.

• Ameren billing data and customer surveys to estimat e energy use a nd employment for the industrial sector . These estimates were then compared to the 2010 Ameren study.

Data Application for Market Profiles The specific data elements for the market profiles, together with the key data sources, are shown in Table 2

- 9

. To develop the market profiles for each segment, we used the following approach:

1. Developed control totals for each segment. These include market size, segment

- level annual electricity use, and annual intensity.

2. Used Ameren saturation surveys from this study, survey results from the 2010 Ameren Study

, RECS 2009

, and the American Housing Survey to incorporate information on existing appliance saturations, appliance and equipment characteristi cs, and building characteristics.

3. Incorporated secondary data sources to supplement and corroborate the data from items 1 and 2 above.

4. Compared and cross

- checked with regional data in the Energy Market Profiles Database and other recent EnerNOC studies

. 5. E nsured calibration to control totals for annual electricity sales in each sector and segment.

6. Worked with Ameren staff to vet the data against their knowledge and experience

.
Data Application for Baseline projection
Table 2

- 10 summarizes the LoadMAP model inputs required for the baseline projection . These inputs are required for each segment within each sector, as well as for new construction and existi ng dwellings/buildings.
In addition, we implemented assumptions for known future equipment standards as of June 2013, as shown in Table 2

- 11 and Table 2

- 12

.Analysis Approach and Data Development

2

- 16 www.enernoc.com Table 2

- 9 Data Applied for the Market Profiles

M odel Inputs Description Key Sources

Market size Base

- year residential dwellings

, commercial floor space, and industrial employment Ameren billing data Ameren current saturation survey 2010 Ameren Study Ameren Load Forecasting

Annual intensity Residential: Annual energy use (kWh/household) Commercial: Annual energy use (kWh/sq ft) Industrial: Annual energy use (kWh/employee) Ameren current saturation surveys 2010 Ameren Study Energy Market Profiles
AEO 2012 Other recent studies

Appliance/equipment
saturations Fraction of dwellings with an appliance/technology Percentage of C&I floor space/employment with equipment/technology Ameren current saturation survey 2010 Ameren Study Energy Market Profiles Ameren Load Forecasting

UEC/EUI for each end

use te chnology UEC: Annual electricity use for a technology in dwellings that have the technology EUI: Annual electricity use per square foot/employee for a technology in floor space that has the technology HVAC uses: BEST simulations using prototypes developed for Missouri
Missouri TRM Engineering analysis
DEEM
Recent EnerNOC studies Appliance/equipment vintage distribution Age distribution for each technology Ameren saturation surveys
Recent EnerNOC studies

Efficiency options for each technology List of available efficiency options and annual energy use for each technology Missouri TRM
DEEM
DEER NWPCC workbooks
AEO 2013 Previous studies

Peak factors Share of technology energy use that occurs during the peak hour EnergyShape database

Table 2

- 10 Data Needs for the Baseline projection and Potentials Estimation in LoadMAP Model Inputs Description Key Sources

Customer growth forecasts Forecasts of new construction in residential and C&I sectors Ameren Missouri load forecast
AEO 201 3 economic growth forecast

Equipment purchase shares for baseline projection For each equipment/technology, purchase shares for each efficiency level; specified separately for existing equipment replacement and new
construction Shipments data from AEO
AEO 201 3 regional forecast assumptions 9 Appliance/efficiency standards analysis
Ameren Missouri program results and evaluation reports

Electricity prices Forecast o f average energy and capacity avoided costs and retail prices Ameren Missouri forecast
AEO 201 3 Utilization model parameters Price elasticities, elasticities for other variables (income, weather) EPRI’s REEPS and COMMEND models
AEO 201 3

9 We developed b aseline purchase decisions using the Energy Information Agency’s Annual Energy Outlook report (20 13

), which utilizes the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to produce a self

- consistent supply and demand economic model. We calibrated

e quipment purchase options to match manufacturer shipment data for recent years and then held values constant for the study period. This removes any effects of naturally occurring conservation or effects of future DSM programs that may be embedded in the AE O forecasts.Analysis Approach and Data Development

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2

- 17 Table 2

- 11 Residential Electric Equipment Standards

Today's Efficiency or Standard Assumption 1st Standard (relative to today's standard) 2nd Standard (relative to today's standard)

End Use Technology 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Central AC

Room AC
Evaporative Central AC
Evaporative Room AC
Cooling/Heating Heat Pump
Space Heating Electric Resistance
Water Heater (<=55 gallons)
Water Heater (>55 gallons) Screw-in/Pin Lamps

Linear Fluorescent T12 Refrigerator/2nd Refrigerator

Freezer

Dishwasher Conventional (355kWh/yr)

Clothes Washer

Clothes Dryer NAECA Standard

NAECA Standard

Conventional (MEF 1.26 for top loader)

Conventional (EF 3.01) Cooling EER 11.0 SEER 13

EER 9.8

Conventional

Conventional

Water Heating EF 0.95

Heat Pump Water Heater EF 0.90

EF 0.90 Advanced Incandescent - tier 2 (45 lumens/watt)

T8 SEER 14.0/HSPF 8.0 SEER 13.0/HSPF 7.7

Electric Resistance

Incandescent

5% more efficient (EF 3.17) Appliances 25% more efficient

25% more efficient

14% more efficient (307 kWh/yr)

MEF 1.72 for top loader MEF 2.0 for top loader Lighting Advanced Incandescent - tier 1 (20 lumens/watt)Analysis Approach and Data Development

2

- 18 www.enernoc.com Table 2

- 12 Commercial Electric Equipment Standards

Today's Efficiency or Standard Assumption 1st Standard (relative to today's standard) 2nd Standard (relative to today's standard)

End Use Technology 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Chillers

Roof Top Units

Packaged Terminal AC/HP

Cooling/Heating Heat Pump

Ventilation Ventilation
Screw-in/Pin Lamps

Linear Fluorescent

High Intensity Discharge

Water Heating Water Heater
Walk-in Refrigerator/Freezer

Reach-in Refrigerator

Glass Door Display

Open Display Case

Vending Machines

Icemaker

Non-HVAC Motors

Commercial Laundry Miscellaneous Advanced Incandescent - tier 1 (20 lumens/watt) Incandescent

EISA 2007 Standard

MEF 1.6 MEF 1.26 70% Efficiency 62.3% Efficiency EF 0.97

Refrigeration EPACT 2005 Standard

42% more efficient

18% more efficient

33% more efficient

2010 Standard 88 lumens/watt T12 T8 Lighting Cooling 2007 ASHRAE 90.1
EER 11.0/11.2

EER 11.0/11.2

EER 11.0/COP 3.3

Advanced Incandescent - tier 2 (45 lumens/watt) Constant Air Volume/Variable Air VolumeAnalysis Approach and Data Development

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2

- 19 Energy Efficiency Measure Data Application
Table 2

- 13 details the energy

- efficiency data inputs to the LoadMAP model. It describes each input and identifies the key sources used in the Ameren analysis

.

Table 2

- 13 Data Needs for the Measure Characteristics in LoadMAP Model Inputs Description Key Sources

Energy Impacts The annual reduction in consumption attributable to each specific measure. Savings were developed as a percentage of the energy end use that the measure affects. Missouri TRM
BEST
DEEM
DEER NWPCC workbooks Other secondary sources

Peak Demand Impacts Savings during the peak demand periods are specified for each electric measure. These impacts relate to the energy savings and depend on the extent to which each measure is coincident with the system peak. Missouri TRM
BEST EnergyShape

Costs Equipment Measures: Includes the full cost of purchasing and installing the equipment on a per

household, per

- square

- foot , or per employee basis for the residential , commercial, and industrial sectors, respectively

. Non

- equipment measures: Existing buildings

– full installed cost. New Constru ction

- the costs may be either the full cost of the measure, or as appropriate, it may be the incremental cost of upgrading from a standard level to a higher efficiency level. Missouri TRM
DEEM
DEER NWPCC workbooks
RS Means Other secondary sources

Measure Lifetimes Estimates derived from the technical data and secondary data sources that support the measure demand and energy savings analysis

. Missouri TRM
DEEM
DEER NWPCC workbooks Other secondary sources

Applicability Estimate of the percentage of either dwellings in the residential sector or square feet /employment in the C&I sectors where the measure is applicable and where it is technically feasible to implement

. Missouri TRM
DEEM
DEER Other secondary sources

On Market and Off Market Availability Expressed as years for equipment measures to reflect when the equipment technology is available or no longer available in the market

. EnerNOC appliance standards and building codes analysis

Data Application for Cost

- effectiveness Screening To perform th e cost

- effectiveness screening, a number of economic assumptions were needed

. All cost and benefit values were analyzed as real 2012 dollars . A discount rate of 7% in nominal terms was used. This is equivalent to a 3.93% discount rate in real terms when ad justing for 2.92% inflation. 10 Electric delivery losses of 6.7% were provided by Ameren.

10 Inflation adjuster of 2.92% based on the average annual growth forecast in US Consumer Price Index from the 2012 Annual Energ y Outlook for 2010

- 2035.Analysis Approach and Data Development

2

- 20 www.enernoc.com Achievable Potential Estimation
To estimate achievable potential, three sets of parameters are needed to represent customer decision making behavior with respect to en ergy

- efficiency choices.

• Adoption curves for non

- equipment measures

. Equipment measures are installed when existing units fail. Non

- equipment measures do not have this natural periodicity, so r ather than installing all available non

- equipment measures in the first year of the projection (instantaneous potential), they are phased in according to adopti on schedules that vary based on cost and complexity. The adoption rates used in this analysis take several factors into account to determine how quickly the market can absorb these measures. Typically, measures that cause disruption to the building, such as wall insulation in existing buildings, receive longer adoption curves

, while those with drop

- in installations, such as programmable thermos tats in new buildings, receive shorter ones. High capital cost measures will also receive longer adoption curves than ones with low capital cost. These adoption rates are used within LoadMAP to generate the T echnical and E conomic potentials. In general, th e rates align with the diffusion of similar equipment measures.

• Maximum Achievable adoption rates

. Maximum achievable adoption rates are applied to Economic potential to estimate Maximum Achievable potential. These rates represent customer adoption of econ omic measures when delivered through ideally

- operated efficiency programs and under a supportive regulatory framework. Information channels are assumed to be established and efficient for marketing, educating consumers, and coordinating with trade allies a nd delivery partners. The only barrier to adoption reflected in this case is customer preferences.

The Maximum Achievable adoption rates are based on the take rates for a 1

- year payback from customers that are aware and have information about energy effi ciency measures and programs. The take rates were developed based on the results of the program interest survey conducted as part of this study and described in Volume 2 of the report.

• Realistic Achievable adoption rates

. To calculate Realistic Achievable potential, Realistic Achievable adoption rates are applied. The Realistic Achievable adoption rates are based on the average three

- year payback take rate from the primary market research. These rates reflect e xpected program participation given significan t barriers to customer acceptance,

non

- ideal implementation conditions, and limited program budgets. This r epresents a lower bound on achievable potential.
Realistic Achievable and Maximum Achievable adoption rates are presented in the appendix to this vol ume. The development of the take rates are detailed in Volume 2.EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 3

- 1 

## MARKET CHARACTERIZAT ION AND MARKET PROFI LES

In this section, we describe how customers in the Ameren Missouri service territory use electricity in the base year of the study, 2011. It begins with a high

- level summary of energy use by sector and then delves into each sector in detail.


## Energy Use Summary Total electricity use for the residential, commer cial

, and industrial sectors for Ameren in 2011

was 30 ,753 GWh. This total does not include opt

- out customers. As a result, and a s shown in Figure 3

- 1 , the largest sector is commercial, accounting for 46 % of load at 14,241 GWh. The residential sector accounts for 44% or 13,375 GWh . The industrial sector, less some very large opt

- out customers, accounts for 10%, or 3,137 GWh.
Figure 3

- 1 Sector

- Level Electricity Use, 2011



### Residential
44% Commercial
46%

Industrial
10% CHAPTER 3Market Characterization and Market Profiles

3

- 2 www.enernoc.com 

## Residential Sector The total number of households and electric sales for the service territory were obtained from Ameren ’s customer database. In 2011, there were just over 1 million households in the Ameren terr itory that used a total of 13,375 GWh . We allocated these totals into the two residential segments and the values are shown in Table 3

- 1 . These are the control totals to which residential electricity use is calibrate d in the base year of the study.

Table 3

- 1 Residential Sector Energy Usage and Intensity by Segment Type, 2011

Segment No. of Households 2011 Electricity Use (GWh) Intensity (kWh/H ousehold )

Single Family 754,472 11,208 14,856 Multi Family 280,077 2,167 7,737
Total 1,034,549 13,375 12,929

Composite Electric Profile As we describe in the previous chapter, the market profiles provide the foundation for development of the baseline projection and the potential estimates. The average market profile for the residential sector is presented in Table 3

- 2

. Segment specific market profiles are presented in the appendix to this volume.
Figure 3

- 2 sho ws the distribution of electricity use by end use for all homes. Three main electricity end uses

— appliances, space heating and cooling

— account for 60% of total use. Ap pliances include refrigerators, freezers, stoves, clothes washers, clothes dryers, dishwashers, and microwaves. The remainder of the energy falls into the electronics, lighting, water heating and the miscellaneous category

– which is comprised of furnace f ans, pool pumps, and other “plug” loads ( all other usage not covered by those listed in Table 3

- 2 such as hair dryers, power tools, coffee makers, etc).
Figure 3

- 2 Residential Electricity by End Use (2011), All Homes



### Cooling

20%

Space Heating
20%

Water Heating
7% Interior Lighting
8% Exterior Lighting
2% Appliances
20% Electronics
9% Miscellaneous
14%Market Characterization and Market Profiles

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 3

- 3 Table 3

- 2 Average Electric Market Profile for the Residential Sector , 2011

Figure 3

- 3 and Table 3

- 3 present the electricity intensities by end use and housing type

. UEC Intensity Usage (kWh) (kWh/HH) (GWh) Cooling Central AC 88.9% 2,736 2,434 2,518 Cooling Room AC 4.8% 1,712 83 86 Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 2.9% 2,897 83 86 Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.9% 2,027 17 18 Space Heating Electric Resistance 2.0% 6,441 129 133 Space Heating Electric Furnace 32.6% 6,763 2,208 2,284 Space Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 2.9% 5,628 166 171 Space Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.9% 1,993 19 19 Water Heating Water Heater <= 55 gal 26.3% 2,512 661 684 Water Heating Water Heater > 55 gal 8.6% 2,678 231 239 Interior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 945 945 978 Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent 60.6% 104 63 65 Interior Lighting Specialty 31.0% 236 73 76 Exterior Lighting Screw-in 84.9% 268 227 235 Appliances Refrigerator 100.0% 725 725 750 Appliances Second Refrigerator 36.3% 844 306 317 Appliances Freezer 36.9% 576 213 220 Appliances Clothes Washer 90.0% 96 86 89 Appliances Clothes Dryer 77.4% 704 544 563 Appliances Dishwasher 80.6% 401 323 334 Appliances Stove 68.0% 434 295 305 Appliances Microwave 96.9% 121 117 121
Electronics Personal Computers 64.0% 279 178 185
Electronics Monitor 64.0% 55 35 37
Electronics Laptops 71.5% 120 86 89
Electronics TVs 284.7% 233 664 687
Electronics Printer/Fax/Copier 82.5% 42 35 36
Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVR 82.8% 141 117 121
Electronics Devices and Gadgets 53.4% 105 56 58
Miscellaneous Air Purifier/Cleaner 12.4% 1,282 159 164
Miscellaneous Dehumidifier 20.0% 1,533 307 318
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 5.5% 1,575 87 90
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 2.2% 5,230 114 118
Miscellaneous Hot Tub / Spa 6.6% 998 65 68
Miscellaneous Furnace Fan 89.3% 373 332 344
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 744 744 770
12,929 13,375 Total End Use Technology SaturationMarket Characterization and Market Profiles

3

- 4 www.enernoc.com Figure 3

- 3 Residential Electricity Intensity by End Use and Segment (kWh/ household, 201 1 )

Table 3

- 3 Residential Electricity Use by End Use and Segment ( kWh/ HH/ year, 201 1 )

End Use Single Family Multi Family Total Cooling 3,060 1,402 2,611 Space Heating 2,985 1,259 2,518 Water Heating 871 950 892 Interior Lighting 1,317 448 1,081 Exterior Lighting 311 0 227 Appliances 2,801 2,094 2,609
Electronics 1,359 940 1,246

Misc

. 2,152 644 1,744
Total 14,856 7,737 12,929



## Commercial Sector The total electric energy consumed by commercial customers in Ameren ’s service area in 2011 was 1 4,231 GWh. The results of the saturation survey and information from Ameren’s forecast were used to allocate this energy usage to building types and to develop estimates of energy intensity (annual kWh/square foot). Using the electricity use and intensity estimates, we infer floor space which is the unit of analysis in LoadMAP for the commercial sect or. The values are shown in Table 3

- 4 . These are the commercial

- sector control totals to which all energy usage is calibrate d in the base year of the study. Figure 3

- 4 shows the size of each of the building

- types as a percentage of total commercial electricity use

. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000

Single Family Multi Family Intensity (kWh/HH) Cooling

Heating

Water Heating
Interior Lighting
Exterior Lighting
Appliances

Electronics

MiscellaneousMarket Characterization and Market Profiles

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 3

- 5 Table 3

- 4 Commercial Electricity Use by End Use and Segment ( 201 1 )

Segment Electricity Use (GWh) Intensity (k Wh/SqFt) Floor Space (million SqFt)

Office 3,370 21.6 156.1

Restaurant 1,019 37.2 27.4

Retail 1,992 11.2 178.4
Grocery 707 61.1 11.6

Education 1,985 8.0 248.1

Health 1,608 15.2 105.9 Lodging 598 11.5 51.9

Warehouse 987 6.3 156.5

Miscellaneous 1,963 9.7 201.9

All 14,231 12.5 1,137.8

Figure 3

- 4 Commercial Market Segmenta tion by Building Type

– Percentage of Electricity Use

Composite Electric Profile
Table 3

- 5 shows the average market profile for electricity of the commercial sector as a whole, representing a composite of all the building types

. Market profiles for each building type are presented in the appendix to this volume

. Office
24%

Restaurant 7%

Retail
14%

Grocery 5% Education
14% Health

11% Lodging

4% Warehouse
7% Miscellaneous
14%Market Characterization and Market Profiles

3

- 6 www.enernoc.com Table 3

- 5 Average Electric Market Profile for the Commercial Sector , 2011

Commercial Electricity Consumption Figure 3

- 5 shows the distribution of electricity consumption by end use for all commercial building types. Electric usage is dominated by lighting, with interior and exterior uses accounting for one third of consumption. After lighting, the largest end uses are ventilation and cooling

, which account for a quarter of total use. Miscellaneous uses, which include uses not elsewhere covered in the table above , include medi cal equipment, water coolers, power tools, and other plug loads. EUI Intensity Usage

(kWh) (kWh/Sq ft) (GWh)

Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 5.8% 2.63 0.15 174 Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 7.1% 4.20 0.30 341 Cooling Roof top AC 27.1% 3.12 0.85 964 Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 1.3% 3.21 0.04 49 Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.4% 2.05 0.01 9 Cooling PTAC 0.5% 3.17 0.02 19 Cooling PTHP 4.8% 3.17 0.15 173 Heating Electric Furnace 4.6% 6.18 0.29 327 Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 1.3% 6.20 0.08 95 Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.4% 3.32 0.01 14 Heating Electric Room Heat 3.4% 6.99 0.24 270 Heating PTHP 4.8% 2.99 0.14 163
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.70 1.70 1,935 Water Heating Water Heating 28.0% 0.92 0.26 293 Interior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 0.76 0.76 861 Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.30 0.30 339 Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent 100.0% 2.33 2.33 2,647 Exterior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 0.13 0.13 145 Exterior Lighting HID 100.0% 0.37 0.37 421 Exterior Lighting Linear Fluorescent 100.0% 0.13 0.13 146 Refrigeration Walk-in Refrigerator 14.7% 1.96 0.29 327 Refrigeration Reach-in Refrigerator 19.1% 0.12 0.02 27 Refrigeration Glass Door Display 21.0% 1.21 0.25 290 Refrigeration Open Display Case 11.9% 1.41 0.17 192 Refrigeration Icemaker 32.8% 0.41 0.14 154 Refrigeration Vending Machine 18.6% 0.40 0.07 84 Food Preparation Oven 16.0% 0.34 0.05 62 Food Preparation Fryer 4.3% 0.51 0.02 25 Food Preparation Dishwasher 19.8% 0.72 0.14 162 Food Preparation Hot Food Container 8.8% 0.11 0.01 11 Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.33 0.33 371 Office Equipment Laptop 98.2% 0.06 0.06 70 Office Equipment Server 88.4% 0.28 0.25 285 Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.09 0.09 103 Office Equipment Printer/Copier/Fax 100.0% 0.11 0.11 125 Office Equipment POS Terminal 63.6% 0.05 0.03 38
Misc Non-HVAC Motors 3.0% 0.51 0.01 17
Misc Pool Pump 4.6% 0.01 0.00 1
Misc Pool Heater 1.4% 0.03 0.00 0
Misc Clothes Washer 15.1% 0.01 0.00 1
Misc Clothes Dryer 11.1% 0.01 0.00 1
Misc Misc 100.0% 2.20 2.20 2,498
Total 12.51 14,231 

### g y

End Use Technology SaturationMarket Characterization and Market Profiles

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 3

- 7 Figure 3

- 5 Commercial Electricity Consumption by End Use (2011), All Building Types

Figure 3

- 6 shows the electricity intensity by end use and building type in terms of kWh per square foot of building floor space. The grocery sector is the most energy intensive as a result of high refrigeration loads. Restaurants are second as a result of high refrigeration and electric food preparation loads. Offices are third with an intensity just over 20 kWh/sq.ft. per year in 2 011.

Figure 3

- 6 Commercial Electricity Intensity by End Use and Segment (kWh/ SqFt, 2011) 

### Cooling

12% Heating
6%

Ventilation
14%

Water Heating
2% Interior Lighting
27% Exterior Lighting
5% Refrigeration
7% Food Preparation
2% Office Equipment
7% Miscellaneous
18%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Intensity (kWh/Sq Ft) Cooling

Heating

Ventilation

Water Heating

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Refrigeration

Food Preparation

Office Equipment

MiscellaneousMarket Characterization and Market Profiles

3

- 8 www.enernoc.com Figure 3

- 7 and Table 3

- 6 present the electricity usage in GWh by end use and building type. While offices are third highest in terms of electric intensi ty, they account for the highest share of electricity use in Ameren’s commercial sector. As far as end uses, lighting is a major use across all buildings. Office equipment is concentrated in offices.

Figure 3

- 7 Commercial Electricity Usage by End Use Segment (GWh, 2011)

Table 3

- 6 Commercial Electricity Consumption by End Use (GWh, 2011)

End use Office Rest

aurant Retail Grocery Educa

tion Health Lodging Ware

house Miscell

aneous Total

Cooling 514 95 221 50 212 272 90 109 166 1,730

Heating 145 9 56 6 152 172 64 163 103 870

Ventilation 470 120 301 51 258 291 77 112 255 1,935

Water Heating 46 42 39 8 44 35 18 10 52 293

Interior Lighting 737 196 696 107 662 355 195 278 620 3,847

Exterior Lighting 121 56 110 14 101 34 26 52 197 712

Refrigeration 26 261 128 374 87 51 35 49 61 1,073

Food Preparation 16 127 23 11 28 39 8 1 9 261

Office Equipment 568 18 87 5 133 59 9 36 75 991

Misc 727 93 329 82 308 300 77 176 426 2,519

Total 3,370 1,019 1,992 707 1,985 1,608 598 987 1,963 14,231 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Annual Energy

Use (GWh) Cooling

Heating

Ventilation

Water Heating

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Refrigeration

Food Preparation

Office Equipment

MiscellaneousMarket Characterization and Market Profiles

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 3

- 9 

## Industrial Sector

The total electric ity used in 2011 by Ameren’s industrial customers who have not opted out was 3,137 GWh. Because this sector is relatively small and is heterogeneous with respect to industry type, the sector was treated as a whole in the analysis. We used the customer surv eys and information from forecasting to disaggregate total electricity use into the major end uses. Table 3

- 7 shows the composite market profile for the industrial sec tor.

Table 3

- 7 Average Electric Market Profile for the Industrial Sector, 2011

EUI Intensity Usage (kWh) (kWh/Empl) (GWh) Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 8.0% 1,310 105 16 Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 3.0% 2,047 61 9 Cooling Roof top AC 21.0% 2,105 442 68 Cooling Air Source Heat Pump 2.0% 2,105 42 6 Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 1,404

- - Cooling PTAC 0.3% 2,016 6 1 Cooling PTHP 2.7% 2,016 54 8 Heating Electric Furnace 2.0% 7,976 160 24 Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 2.0% 8,008 160 25 Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 5,341

- - Heating Electric Room Heat 1.0% 7,596 76 12 Heating PTHP 2.7% 3,038 82 13
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 667 667 102 Interior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 128 128 20 Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 207 207 32 Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent 100.0% 1,020 1,020 156 Exterior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 91 91 14 Exterior Lighting HID 100.0% 28 28 4 Exterior Lighting Linear Fluorescent 100.0% 136 136 21
Motors Pumps 100.0% 1,928 1,928 295
Motors Fans & Blowers 100.0% 1,509 1,509 231
Motors Compressed Air 100.0% 1,205 1,205 185
Motors Matl Handling 100.0% 1,659 1,659 254
Motors Matl Processing 100.0% 3,781 3,781 579
Motors Other Motors 100.0% 843 843 129
Process Process Heating 100.0% 2,970 2,970 455
Process Process Cooling and Refrig 100.0% 1,454 1,454 223
Process Electro-Chemical Processes 100.0% 761 761 117
Process Other Process 100.0% 269 269 41
Misc Misc 100.0% 639 639 98
20,482 3,137 Total Average Market Profiles

End Use Technology SaturationMarket Characterization and Market Profiles

3

- 10 www.enernoc.com Figure 3

- 8 shows the distribution of electricity energy consumption by end use for all industrial customers. Motors are clearly the largest overall end use for the indu strial sector, accounting for 53 % of energy use. Note that this end use includes a wide range of industrial equipment, such as air compressors and refrigeration compressors, pumps, conveyor motors, and fans. The process end use account s for 2 7 % of energy use , which includes heating, coolin g, refrigeration, and electro

- chemical processes. Lighting is the next highest, followed by cooling, ventilation

, miscellaneous, and space heating.
Figure 3

- 8 Industrial Electricity Use by End Use (201 1) , All Industries



### Cooling

4% Heating 2% Ventilation
3% Interior Lighting
7%

Exterior Lighting
1%

Motors

53% Process

27% Misc 3%EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 4

- 1 

### CHAPTER 4



## B ASELINE PROJECTION

Prior to developing estimates of energy

- efficiency potential, a baseline end

- use projection was developed to quantify what the consumption is likely to be in the future in absence of new efficiency programs. The baseline projection incorporates assumptions about :

• E conomic growth

• A ppliance/equipment standards and building codes already mandated ( see Chapter 2)

• F uture electricity prices and other drivers of consumption

• T rends in fuel shares and appliance saturations and assumptions about miscellaneous electricity growth

• N aturally occurring energy efficiency, which reflects the manufacture of more efficient options in response to new appliance standards and purchases of high

- efficiency appliances and equipment by early adopters outside of utility programs.

The baseline projection is not Ameren’s official load forecast. Rather it was develo ped to serve as the metric against which energy efficiency potentials are measured. This chapter presents the baseline projection for each sector and end use. It also presents estimates of naturally occurring energy efficiency

.


## Residential Sector

Table 4

- 1 and Figure 4

- 1 present the baseline projecti on for electricity at the end

- use level for the residential sector as a whole. Ov erall, residential use increases slightly from 13,375 GWh in 2011 to 14,343 GWh in 20 30

, an increase of 7.2 %. This reflects the impact of the EISA lighting standard, additional appliance standards adopted in 2011, and modest customer growth. This table also shows the estimate of naturally occurring energy efficiency, which has the greatest impact in the early y ears of the projection due to early adoption of LED lamps. Naturally

occurring efficiency is computed as the difference between a “codes & standards projection” (also shown in Table 4

- 1 and Figure 4

- 1 ) and the baseline projection.

Table 4

- 1 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh)

End Use 2011 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 % Change ('11

- '30)
Cooling 2,701 2,643 2,656 2,677 2,804 2,898 7%

Heating 2,605 2,628 2,643 2,664 2,774 2,857 10%

Water Heating 923 921 919 919 900 879

- 5%
Int. Lighting 1,119 709 717 675 479 474

- 58%
Ext. Lighting 235 152 155 146 92 92

- 61%
Appliances 2,699 2,388 2,352 2,326 2,250 2,320

- 14%

Electronics 1,289 1,363 1,407 1,457 1,714 1,857 44%

Miscellaneous 1,804 2,086 2,160 2,243 2,726 2,967 64%

Total 13,375 12,891 13,008 13,107 13,740 14,343 7.2%
Naturally occurring EE

- 191 199 205 28 39 n/a

Codes & Stds Projection 13,375 13,082 13,207 13,312 13,768 14,382 7.5%Baseline Projection

4

- 2 www.enernoc.com Figure 4

- 1 Residential Baseline P rojection by End Use

Figure 4

- 2 presents the baseline projection of annual electricity use per household. Most noticeable is that lighting use decreases significantly throughout the time period as the lighting efficiency st andards from EISA come into effect

.
Figure 4

- 2 Residential Use per Household by End Use

Table 4

- 2 shows the end

- use forecast at the technology level for select years. Specific observations include:

1. The primary reason for the reduction in the baseline projection beginning in 2012 is the fe deral lighting standards. The standard phases general service incandescent lamps out of the market over a three

- year period

. 2. The baseline projection also incorporates the effects of naturally occurring efficiency, which reflects consumer purchases of more efficient options outside of utility programs, both early adopters and market transformation.

3. Appliance energy use decrease s markedly, reflecting efficiency gains from standards

. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000

2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 Annual

Use (MWh) Cooling

Heating

Water Heating

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Appliances

Electronics

Miscellaneous

Codes & Stds projection

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 Annual

Use
per House

hold (kWh/ HH) Cooling

Heating

Water Heating

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Appliances

Electronics

MiscellaneousBaseline Projection

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 4

- 3 4. Growth in use in electronics is substantial and reflects an increase in the saturation of electronics and the trend toward higher

- powered computers.

5. Growth in miscellaneous use is also substantial. This end use has grown consistently in the past and we incorporate future growth assumptions that are consistent with the Annual Ener gy Outlook.

Table 4

- 2 Residential Baseline P rojection by End Use and Technology (GWh)

End Use Technology 2011 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 % Change ('11

- '30)

Cooling Central AC 2,518 2,455 2,466 2,486 2,600 2,680 6.5%

Room AC 86 80 79 79 75 74

- 13.5%

Air

- Source Heat Pump 80 89 91 93 109 122 53.3%

Geothermal Heat Pump 18 19 19 19 21 22 19.6%

Heating Furnace 2,284 2,301 2,312 2,330 2,415 2,472 8.2%

Electric Room Heat 133 128 127 126 120 117

- 11.9%

Air

- Source Heat Pump 168 180 183 187 217 244 45.3%

Geothermal Heat Pump 19 20 21 21 22 23 19.4%

Water Heating Water Heater <= 55 gal 684 692 697 704 729 741 8.4%

Water Heater > 55 gal 239 228 222 216 171 138

- 42.4%

Interior Lighting Screw

- in 978 585 596 559 356 353

- 63.9%

Linear Fluorescent 65 67 67 68 72 74 13.6%

Specialty 76 57 54 49 52 48

- 36.8%

Ext. Light Screw

- in 235 152 155 146 92 92

- 61.0%

Appliances Clothes Washer 89 81 78 75 56 48

- 46.7%

Clothes Dryer 563 521 517 514 513 525

- 6.8%

Dishwasher 334 277 273 271 283 297

- 11.0%

Refrigerator 750 611 586 566 467 470

- 37.3%

Freezer 220 193 191 190 193 207

- 5.9%

Second Refrigerator 317 251 245 241 224 235

- 25.7%

Stove 305 328 334 339 374 395 29.3%

Microwave 121 127 128 130 138 142 17.7%

Electronics Personal Computers 185 235 247 260 319 342 85.6%

Monitor 37 46 48 50 62 66 81.0%

Laptops 89 109 114 120 167 208 134.2%
Printer/Fax/Copier 36 34 34 34 36 36 1.2%

TVs 687 674 684 696 753 793 15.4%

Set

- top Boxes/DVR 173 156 163 171 210 226 30.8%

Devices and Gadgets 83 110 117 125 167 184 122.4%

Miscel la

neous Pool Pump 90 99 102 104 121 132 47.3%

Pool Heater 118 125 127 129 145 157 32.7%
Hot Tub / Spa 68 75 77 79 90 98 44.2%

Furnace Fan 344 373 380 388 428 451 31.0%
Air Purifier/Cleaner 164 174 177 180 201 218 32.5%

Dehumidifier 318 294 291 289 283 290

- 8.8%

Miscellaneous 703 946 1,007 1,074 1,458 1,623 130.9%

Total 13,375 12,891 13,008 13,107 13,740 14,343 7.2%Baseline Projection

4

- 4 www.enernoc.com 

## Commercial Sector Electricity us e in the commerc ial sector grows modestly during the overall for ecast horizon, starting at 14,231 GWh in 2011, and increasing to 15,867 in 20 30

. Table 4

- 3 and Figure 4

- 3 present the baseline projection at the end

- use level for the commercial sector as a who le. Usage is declining in the early years of the forecast, due largely to the phasing in of codes and standards such as t he EISA 2007 lighting standards and EPACT 2005 refrigeration standards , as well as naturally occurring energy efficiency

. Also shown is the estimate of savings from naturally occurring energy efficiency , developed using a codes and standards projection . These savings are 422 GWh in 2030, or 2.6% of the codes and standards projection that was used to develop the estimates. Most of these sa vings come from early adoption of lighting upgrades.

Table 4

- 3 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh)

End Use 2011 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 % Change ('11

- '30)

Cooling 1,730 1,745 1,735 1,734 1,666 1,653

- 4.4%

Heating 870 971 979 990 1,017 1,029 18.2%

Ventilation 1,935 1,566 1,537 1,523 1,542 1,566

- 19.1%

Water Heating 293 328 331 335 345 351 19.6%

Interior Lighting 3,847 3,266 3,220 3,195 3,016 2,988

- 22.3%

Ext. Lighting 712 605 594 587 555 574

- 19.5%

Refrigeration 1,073 921 908 900 901 960

- 10.5%

Food Prep 261 286 289 293 325 354 35.9%

Office Equip 991 1,166 1,192 1,222 1,387 1,468 48.1%

Miscellaneous 2,519 3,295 3,414 3,540 4,351 4,924 95.5%

Total 14,231 14,149 14,199 14,320 15,105 15,867 11.5%

Naturally occurring EE

- 119 139 146 350 422 n/a

Codes & Stds Projection 14,231 14,268 14,338 14,466 15,455 16,289 14.5%

Figure 4

- 3 Commercial Baseline P rojection by End Use

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Annual

Use (GWh) Cooling

Heating

Ventilation

Water Heating

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Refrigeration

Food Preparation

Office Equipment

Miscellaneous

Codes & Stds ProjectionBaseline Projection

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 4

- 5 Table 4

- 4 presents the commercial sector electricity forecast by technology for select years

. Interior screw

- in lighting and refrigeration decrease significantly over the forecast period as a result of efficiency standard s

.

Table 4

- 4 Commercial Baseline Forecast by End Use and Technology (GWh )

End Use Technology 2011 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 % Change ('11

- '30)

Cooling Air

- Cooled Chiller 174 195 197 199 204 204 17.3%

Water

- Cooled Chiller 341 324 321 319 289 275

- 19.6%
Roof top AC 964 972 965 962 923 924

- 4.1%
Geothermal Heat Pump 9 8 8 8 7 7

- 17.6%
Air Source Heat Pump 49 46 45 45 41 41

- 17.1%

PTAC 19 22 22 22 23 23 21.7%

PTHP 173 178 178 178 177 179 3.3%

Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 14 15 15 15 14 14

- 0.4%

Electric Room Heat 270 309 312 317 328 334 23.5%

Electric Furnace 327 368 371 375 385 388 18.5%
Air Source Heat Pump 95 97 96 96 96 96 1.3%

PTHP 163 183 185 187 194 197 20.4%

Ventilation Ventilation 1,935 1,566 1,537 1,523 1,542 1,566

- 19.1%
Water Heating Water Heating 293 328 331 335 345 351 19.6%

Interior Lighting Screw

- in 861 547 544 544 387 330

- 61.7%
High

- Bay Fixtures 339 271 267 263 258 268

- 20.8%

Linear Fluorescent 2,647 2,449 2,409 2,388 2,371 2,390

- 9.7%

Exterior Lighting Screw

- in 145 80 80 80 57 49

- 66.4%

HID 421 363 357 354 348 368

- 12.6%

Linear Fluorescent 146 161 157 154 150 157 7.5%

Refrigeration Walk

- in Refrigerator 327 241 232 226 218 231

- 29.4%

Reach

- in Refrigerator 27 21 21 20 22 26

- 3.9%
Glass Door Display 290 231 228 226 216 229

- 21.0%
Open Display Case 192 189 189 190 194 204 6.6%

Icemaker 154 173 176 179 199 216 40.7%
Vending Machine 84 65 61 58 51 54

- 35.7%

Food Preparation Oven 62 72 74 75 86 95 51.3%
Fryer 25 32 33 34 42 49 97.4%

Dishwasher 162 170 171 172 184 197 21.4%

Hot Food Container 11 12 12 12 13 14 24.5%

Office Equipment Desktop Computer 371 431 439 449 502 526 41.6%
Laptop 70 85 87 90 108 117 66.7%

Server 285 333 343 353 413 445 56.2%

Monitor 103 125 128 131 146 153 49.1% Printer/Copier/Fax 125 152 155 158 175 181 45.4%

POS Terminal 38 39 40 40 44 46 22.7%

Miscellaneous Non

- HVAC Motors 17 20 21 21 23 24 40.2%
Pool Pump 1 1 1 1 1 1 41.7%

Pool Heater 0 1 1 1 1 1 40.7%

Miscellaneous 2,498 3,271 3,389 3,515 4,323 4,895 96.0%

Clothes Washer 1 1 1 2 2 2 34.8%
Clothes Dryer 1 2 2 2 2 2 35.3%

Total 14,231 14,149 14,199 14,320 15,105 15,867 11.5%Bas eline Projection

4

- 6 www.enernoc.com 

## Industrial Sector

Table 4

- 5 and Figure 4

- 5 present the electricity baseline projection at the end

- use level for the industrial sector. Overall, industrial annual electricity use increases from 3,137 GWh in 2011 to 3,511 GWh in 20 30 . T his comprises an overall increase of 11.9 %, or 0. 4 % per year , which is colored by a slow but recovering economy

. These exhibits also show estimates of naturally occurring efficiency, which as quite small, developed using a codes and standards projection.

T

able 4

- 5 Industrial Consumption by End Use (GWh)

End Use 2011 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 % Change ('11

- '30)

Cooling 109 104 103 103 98 100

- 8.4%

Heating 73 76 77 77 79 81 11.2%

Ventilation 102 74 71 69 67 69

- 32.9%

Int. Lighting 207 163 162 162 165 170

- 17.9%

Ext. Lighting 39 31 30 30 31 31

- 19.4%

Motors 1,673 1,761 1,782 1,797 1,849 1,902 13.7%

Process 835 879 890 897 923 950 13.7%

Miscellaneous 98 121 126 131 171 208 111.9%

Total 3,137 3,209 3,242 3,267 3,383 3,511 11.9%

Naturally occurring EE

- 2 2 3 2 2 n/a

Codes & Stds Projection 3,137 3,211 3,245 3,270 3,385 3,512 12.0%

Figure 4

- 4 Industrial Baseline P rojection by End Use

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Annual

Use (GWh) Cooling

Heating

Ventilation

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Motors

Process

MiscellaneousBaseline Projection

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 4

- 7 

## Baseline P rojection Summary

Table 4

- 6 and Figure 4

- 5 provide a summary of the baseline projection for electricity by sector for the entire A meren service territory . Overall, the forecast shows only a slight incline in electricity use , driven primarily by oncoming codes and standards a nd a challengi ng macroeconomic environment

. Table 4

- 6 also shows the amount of naturally occurring energy efficiency savings. Across all sectors in 2030, savings are 460 GWh, or 1.4% of the codes and standards projection, what was used to develop the savings estimates.

Table 4

- 6 Baseline P rojection Summary (GWh)

Sector 2011 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 % Change

Residential 13,375 12,891 13,008 13,107 13,740 14,343 7.2%

Commercial 14,231 14,149 14,199 14,320 15,105 15,867 11.5%

Industrial 3,137 3,209 3,242 3,267 3,383 3,511 11.9%

Total 30,743 30,249 30,449 30,694 32,228 33,721 9.7%

Naturally occurring EE

- 313 340 354 380 462 n/a

Codes & Stds Projection 30,743 30, 562 30, 789 31, 048 32, 608 34, 183 11.2%

Figure 4

- 5 Baseline P rojection Summary (GWh)

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000Energy Consumption (GWh)

Residential

Commercial

IndustrialEnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5

- 1 

### CHAPTER 5



## MEASURE

- LEVEL ENERGY E FF ICIENCY POTENTIAL

This chapter presents the measure

- level energy

- efficiency potential for Ameren Missouri. Results for the next program cycle, 2016

- 2018, are shown, together with longer term potential for 2025 and 2030. Year

- by

- year savings for annual energy and peak demand are available in the LoadMAP model , whi ch was provided to Ameren at the conclusion of the study

. 

## Summary

Table 5

- 1 and Figure 5

- 1 summarize the energy

- efficiency savings for all measures at the different levels of potential relative to the baseline projection

. Naturally occurring efficiency is included in the baseline p rojection, so all estimates shown below represent net savings. Figure 5

- 2 displays the electric energy

- efficiency forecasts.

• Technical potential

, which reflects the a doption of all energy efficiency measures regardless of cost

- effectiveness, is a theoretical upper bound on savings. First

- year net savings are 1,242 GWh

, or 4.1 % of the baseline projection. Cumulative net savings in 2018

are 2,728 GWh, or 8.9 % of the baseline. By 2030, cumulative savings reach 9,858 GWh, or 29.2 % of the baseline projection.

• Economic potential reflects the savings when the most efficient cost

- effective measures are taken by all customers. The first

- year savings in 2016 are 858 GWh

, or 2.8 % of the baseline projection. By 2018, cumulative net savings reach 1,923 GWh, or 6.3 % of the baseline. By 2030, cumulative savings reach 7,718 GWh, or 22.9 % of the baseline projection.

• Maximum achievable potential (MAP) reflects an ideal regul atory and program implementation scenario. In 201 6, savings for this case are 510 GWh

, or 1.7 % of the baseline and by 201 8 cumulative net savings reach 1,179 GWh

, or 3 .8 % of the baseline projection. By 2030, cumulative MAP savings reach 5,377 GWh, or 15. 9 % of the baseline projection. This results in average annual savings of 0.75 % of the baseline each year.

• Realistic Achievable Potential reflects what is most realistically expected to happen. In 201 6 , net realistic achievable savings are 339 GWh , or 1.1 % of the baseline projection. By 2018, RAP reaches 806 GWh, or 2.6 % of the baseline. By 2030, RAP reaches 3,958 GWh, or 11.7 % of the baseline projection. This results in average annual savings of 0.83 %.

Table 5

- 1 Summary of Measure

- Level Efficiency Potential

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 Baseline projection (GWh) 30,249 30,449 30,694 32,228 33,721 Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Realistic Achievable Potential 339 561 806 2,697 3,958

Maximum Achievable Potential 510 833 1,179 3,753 5,377

Economic Potential 858 1,374 1,923 5,674 7,718

Technical Potential 1,242 1,955 2,728 7,563 9,858 Cumulative Net Savings as a % of Baseline

Realistic Achievable Potential 1.1% 1.8% 2.6% 8.4% 11.7%

Maximum Achievable Potential 1.7% 2.7% 3.8% 11.6% 15.9%

Economic Potential 2.8% 4.5% 6.3% 17.6% 22.9%

Technical Potential 4.1% 6.4% 8.9% 23.5% 29.2%Measure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential

5

- 2 www.enernoc.com Figure 5

- 1 Measure

- Level E nergy Efficiency Potential

Figure 5

- 2 Summary of the Baseline Projection and Measure

- level EE Forecasts (GWh) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030Energy Savings (% of Baseline Forecast) 

### Realistic Achievable Potential
Maximum Achievable Potential
Economic Potential
Technical Potential

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000Energy Consumption (1,000 MWh)



### Baseline Forecast
Realistic Achievable Potential
Maximum Achievable Potential
Economic Potential
Technical PotentialMeasure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5

- 3 

## Overview of Measure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential by Sector

Table 5

- 2 and Figure 5

- 3 summarize the range of electric achievable potential by sector. The commercial sector accounts for the largest portion of the savings, followed by residential then industrial.

Table 5

- 2 Measure

- level Achievable Potential by Sector (GWh)

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

RAP Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Residential 95 162 251 843 1,290

Commercial 231 376 523 1,736 2,495

Industrial 13 23 32 118 173

Total 339 561 806 2,697 3,958

MAP Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Residential 137 230 354 1,158 1,714

Commercial 354 570 779 2,435 3,430

Industrial 19 33 45 160 232

Total 510 833 1,179 3,753 5,377

Figure 5

- 3 Measure

- level Achievable Potential by Sector (GWh)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030RAP Savings (GWh) Residential
Commercial
Industrial

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000



### 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030MAP Savings (GWh) Residential
Commercial
IndustrialMeasure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential

5

- 4 www.enernoc.com 

## Residential Measure

- level Potential

Table 5

- 3 presents estimates for the four types o f measure

- level potential for the residential sector. Figure 5

- 4 d epicts these potential energy savings estimates graphically. Net cumulative savings for achievable potential in 2018 are 251 GWh for RAP and 354 GWh for MAP, or 1.9% to 2.7% of the baseline projection, respectively. By 2030, the RAP and MAP savings are 1,290 GWh and 1,714 GWh, respectively.

Table 5

- 3 Measure

- level EE Potential for the Residential Sector

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030
Baseline projection (GWh) 12,891 13,008 13,107 13,740 14,343 Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Realistic Achievable Potential 95 162 251 843 1,290

Maximum Achievable Potential 137 230 354 1,158 1,714

Economic Potential 282 459 701 2,111 2,902

Technical Potential 440 752 1,136 3,108 4,079 Cumulative Net Savings as a % of Baseline

Realistic Achievable Potential 0.7% 1.2% 1.9% 6.1% 9.0%

Maximum Achievable Potential 1.1% 1.8% 2.7% 8.4% 12.0%

Economic Potential 2.2% 3.5% 5.3% 15.4% 20.2%

Technical Potential 3.4% 5.8% 8.7% 22.6% 28.4%

Figure 5

- 4 Residential Measure

- level Energy Efficiency Savings



### Residential Measure

- level Potential by Market Segment Single

- family homes in Ameren account for the majority of this sector’s total sales in the base year and throughout the forecast. Similarly, single

- family homes account for the largest share of potential savings by segment, as displayed in Table 5

- 4 for 201 8

. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030Energy Savings (% of Baseline) Realistic Achievable Potential

Maximum Achievable Potential

Economic Potential

Technical PotentialMeasure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5

- 5 Table 5

- 4 Residential Measure

- level Potential by Market Segment, 201 8

Single Family Multi Family

Baseline projection (GWh) 10,958 2,149 Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Realistic Achievable Potential 212 39

Maximum Achievable Potential 304 50

Economic Potential 586 115

Technical Potential 942 194 Cumulative Net Savings as a % of Baseline

Realistic Achievable Potential 1.9% 1.8%

Maximum Achievable Potential 2.8% 2.3%

Economic Potential 5.3% 5.3%

Technical Potential 8.6% 9.0%



### Residential Top 20 Measures
Table 5

- 5 identifies the top 20 residential measures in 2018 for RAP which account for 88 % of cumulative RAP. The top measure is screw

- in LED lamps, which account for 25% of the savings in 2018. These lamps are cost

- effective when compared to the infrared halogen lamp that meets the EISA lighting standard starting in 2014. Savings from this mea sure in RAP are calculated relative to a market baseline that reflects purchases of the infrared halogen lamps, as well as substantial market share for CFLs and LEDs.

Table 5

- 5 Residential Top Measures in RAP in 2018

Rank Measure End use 2018 Savings % of Total

1 Interior Lighting Screw

- in

– LED lamps Int. Light 63.9 25%

2 Cooling Central AC

– SEER 15 Cooling 18.7 7%

3 Exterior Lighting Screw

- in

– LED lamps Ext. Light 17.6 7%

4 Central AC

- Maintenance and Tune

- Up Cooling 13.5 5%

5 Refrigerator

- Remove Second Unit Appliances 13.2 5%

6 Windows

- Install Reflective Film Heat & Cool 12.2 5%

7 Ducting

- Repair and Sealing Heat & Cool 10.9 4%

8 Water Heater

- Low

- Flow Showerheads Water heat 9.0 4%

9 Windows

- High Efficiency/ENERGY STAR Heat & Cool 8.9 4%

10 Freezer

- Removal Appliances 6.9 3%

11 Electronics Personal Computers Electronics 6.9 3%

12 Pool/Spa cover Misc. 5.6 2%

13 Electronics Set

- top Boxes/DVR Electronics 5.5 2%

14 Thermostat

- Clock/Programmable Heat & Cool 5.1 2%

15 Insulation

- Infiltration Control Heat & Cool 4.6 2%

16 Miscellaneous Air Purifier/Cleaner Misc. 4.1 2%

17 Water Heater

- Thermostat Setback Water heat 4.0 2%

18 Room AC

- Removal Cooling 3.9 2%

19 Central AC

- Early Replacement Cooling 3.5 1%

20 Insulation

– Ducting Heat & Cool 3.4 1%
Total 221.4 88%Measure

- Level Energy Efficiency P otential

5

- 6 www.enernoc.com Figure 5

- 5 focuses on the RAP by end use in 2018 and 2025

.

• Cooling measures, including CAC replacement, CAC maintenance, duct repair and sealing, and various thermal shell measures

, account for the lar gest share of savings in the program cycle and in the long term.

• Lighting equipment replacement measures account for the second

- highest portion of the savings in the near term as a result of the efficiency gap between LED lamps and advanced incandescent l amps that meet the EISA 2007 standard. In the longer term (2025), electronics and space heating measures contribute significantly to the savings.

• Electronics measures, including high

- efficiency PCs and set

- top boxes, contribute significant savings to RAP in the long term.

• Space heating measures, consisting mostly of thermal

- shell measures, contribute 12% to net cumulative savings in 2025.
Figure 5

- 5 Residential Measure

- level RAP by End Use in 2018 and 2025



### Cooling
39%

Heating

12% Water Heating 7% Interior Lighting

10% Exterior Lighting
3% Appliances
8% Electronics
14% Miscellaneous
7%

Cooling
31%

Heating

9%

Water Heating 6% Interior Lighting
26% Exterior Lighting
7%

Appliances
8% Electronics
7% Miscellaneous
6%Measure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5

- 7 

### Residential Measure

- level Potential by End Use
Table 5

- 6 provides estimates of savings for each end use and type of potential.

Table 5

- 6 Residential M easure

- level Savings by End Use and Potential Type (GWh)

End Use Case 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Cooling RAP 34 53 78 333 548

MAP 49 75 109 451 721

Economic Potential 103 155 222 821 1,217

Technical Potential 154 246 354 1,119 1,502

Heating RAP 10 15 21 105 165

MAP 15 22 32 151 233

Economic Potential 31 46 66 287 417

Technical Potential 47 71 104 387 561

Water Heating RAP 5 9 16 57 103

MAP 8 14 24 81 139

Economic Potential 17 30 51 158 244

Technical Potential 42 83 130 392 561

Interior Lighting RAP 23 42 66 87 122

MAP 32 59 93 113 148

Economic Potential 62 109 171 182 199

Technical Potential 66 117 181 213 227

Exterior Lighting RAP 6 11 18 22 29

MAP 9 16 25 29 34

Economic Potential 15 27 42 42 42

Technical Potential 17 30 46 48 50

Appliances RAP 6 12 21 63 81

MAP 8 15 26 80 100

Economic Potential 15 28 50 141 169

Technical Potential 40 75 118 343 453

Electronics RAP 6 11 18 118 156

MAP 9 17 26 173 224

Economic Potential 18 35 54 310 383

Technical Potential 39 74 123 347 384

Miscellaneous RAP 6 9 14 58 87

MAP 8 12 19 79 115

Economic Potential 20 29 45 171 231

Technical Potential 35 57 79 260 341

Total RAP 95 162 251 843 1,290

MAP 137 230 354 1,158 1,714

Economic Potential 282 459 701 2,111 2,902

Technical Potential 440 752 1,136 3,108 4,079Measure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential

5

- 8 www.enernoc.com 

## C ommercial Measure

- level Potential Net cumulative savings for measure

- level achievable potential in the commercial sector in 2018 are 523 GWh for RAP and 779 for MAP, or 3.7% to 5.4% of the baseline projection, respectively. These savings are twice as high as for the residential sector. Table 5

- 7 presents estimates for the four types of potential for the residential electricity sector. Figure 5

- 6 depicts these potential energy savings estimates graphically.

Table 5

- 7 Measure

- level EE Potential for the Commercial Sector

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030
Baseline projection (GWh) 14,149 14,199 14,320 15,105 15,867 Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Realistic Achievable Potential 231 376 523 1,736 2,495

Maximum Achievable Potential 354 570 779 2,435 3,430

Economic Potential 547 864 1,155 3,342 4,507

Technical Potential 722 1,093 1,448 4,005 5,196 Cumulative Net Savings as a % of Baseline

Realistic Achievable Potential 1.6% 2.6% 3.7% 11.5% 15.7%

Maximum Achievable Potential 2.5% 4.0% 5.4% 16.1% 21.6%

Economic Potential 3.9% 6.1% 8.1% 22.1% 28.4%

Technical Potential 5.1% 7.7% 10.1% 26.5% 32.7%

Figure 5

- 6 Commercial Measure

- level Energy Efficiency Savings

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030Energy Savings (% of Baseline Forecast) Realistic Achievable Potential

Maximum Achievable Potential

Economic Potential

Technical PotentialMeasure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5

- 9 

### Commercial Measure

- level Potential by Market Segment
Table 5

- 8 shows measure

- level achievable potential estimates by building type in 201 8

. Offices and retail have the largest share of MAP and RAP savings throughout the study horizon.

Table 5

- 8 Commercial Measure

- level P otential by Market Segment, 201 8

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

M AP (GWh)
Office 75 123 176 595 813

Restaurant 25 39 51 153 220
Retail 52 83 112 350 502 Grocery 28 37 47 134 187
Education 45 72 99 303 438
Health 42 65 88 271 376 Lodging 16 30 41 83 108
Warehouse 22 35 48 178 258
Miscellaneous 50 86 117 367 528
Total 354 570 779 2,435 3,430 % of Total Savings

– MAP
Office 21% 22% 23% 24% 24%

Restaurant 7% 7% 7% 6% 6%
Retail 15% 14% 14% 14% 15% Grocery 8% 7% 6% 6% 5%
Education 13% 13% 13% 12% 13%
Health 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% Lodging 5% 5% 5% 3% 3%
Warehouse 6% 6% 6% 7% 8%
Miscellaneous 14% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

R AP (GWh)

Office 49 81 117 421 588

Restaurant 16 25 34 109 160
Retail 34 55 75 250 366 Grocery 18 24 30 93 133
Education 30 48 67 214 318
Health 27 43 59 193 272 Lodging 11 20 29 65 83
Warehouse 14 23 32 126 187
Miscellaneous 33 57 79 267 389
Total 231 376 523 1,736 2,495 % of Total Savings

- R AP
Office 21% 22% 22% 24% 24%

Restaurant 7% 7% 7% 6% 6%
Retail 15% 15% 14% 14% 15% Grocery 8% 6% 6% 5% 5%
Education 13% 13% 13% 12% 13%
Health 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% Lodging 5% 5% 5% 4% 3%
Warehouse 6% 6% 6% 7% 7%
Miscellaneous 14% 15% 15% 15% 16%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Measure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential

5

- 10 www.enernoc.com 

### Commercial Top 20 Measures
Table 5

- 9 identifies the top 20 commercial

- sector measures in 2018 for RAP. These measures account for 404 GWh in 2018 and 77.3 % of total RAP. The top measure is screw

- in LED lamps, which account for 26% of the savings in 2018. These lamps are cost

- effective when compared to the infrared halogen lamp that meets the EISA lighting standard starting in 2014. Savings from this measure in RAP are calculated relative to a mar ket baseline that reflects purchases of the infrared halogen lamps, as well as substantial market share for CFLs and LEDs.

Table 5

- 9 Commercial Top 20 Measure s in RAP in 2018

Rank Measure End Use 2018 Savings % of Total

1 Interior Lighting

- Screw

- in

– LED Int. Light 94 18.0%

2 Interior Lighting

- Linear Fluor escent Int. Light 43 8.3%

3 Advanced New Construction Designs Int. Light, HVAC 36 6.8%

4 Office Equipment

– Server Off. Eq. 27 5.1%

5 Interior Lighting

- Daylighting Controls Int. Light 22 4.2%

6 Water Heating

– High

- efficiency system Water heat 19 3.6%

7 Energy Management System HVAC 19 3.5%

8 Exterior Lighting

– HID Ext. Light 17 3.3%

9 Office Equipment

- Desktop Computer Off. Eq. 16 3.1%

10 Interior Lighting

- High

- Bay Fixtures Int. Light 14 2.7%

11 Retrocommissioning

– HVAC HVAC 14 2.7%

12 Exterior Lighting

- Screw

- in Ext. Light 14 2.6%

13 Ventilation

- Variable Speed Control Ventilation 12 2.3%

14 Interior Lighting

- Occupancy Sensors Int. Light 12 2.2%

15 Retrocommissioning

– Lighting Int. Light 11 2.2%

16 Office Equipment

- Printer/Copier/Fax Off. Eq. 7 1.4%

17 Commissioning

– Lighting Int. Light 7 1.4%

18 Refrigerator

– eCube Refrig. 7 1.3%

19 Ventilation

- CO2 Controlled Ventilation 7 1.3%

20 Ventilation

- Ventilation Ventilation 6 1.2%
Total 404 77. 3 %

Figure 5

- 7 focus es on RAP by end use in 2018 and 2025.

• I nterior lighting delivers the largest share of RAP savings throughout the study period

. This results from lamp and system replacement, as well as lighting controls.

• Office equipment has the second largest share, resulting from high

- efficiency servers, PCs, and printers, as well as monitor power maintenance.Measure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5

- 11 Figure 5

- 7 Commercial Measure

- level RAP Savings by End Use in 2018 and 2025Measure

- Level Energy Ef ficiency Potential

5

- 12 www.enernoc.com 

### Commercial Measure

- level Potential by End Use
Table 5

- 10 presents the commercial sector savings by end use and potential type.

Table 5

- 10 Commercial M easure

- level Potential by End Use and Potential Type (GWh)

End Use Case 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Cooling RAP 37 52 70 243 324

MAP 58 80 108 352 457

Economic Potential 88 121 160 483 604

Technical Potential 118 162 215 611 749

Heating RAP 14 20 28 98 141

MAP 23 31 43 145 203

Economic Potential 35 49 65 207 278

Technical Potential 47 65 88 255 329

Ventilation RAP 21 30 44 175 229

MAP 32 47 68 257 330

Economic Potential 53 76 108 378 465

Technical Potential 74 102 138 452 544

Water Heating RAP 8 15 23 76 130

MAP 11 21 32 104 173

Economic Potential 17 31 47 144 230

Technical Potential 19 34 50 151 236

Interior Lighting RAP 93 161 218 744 1,094

MAP 141 242 317 1,010 1,466

Economic Potential 213 354 445 1,314 1,825

Technical Potential 245 396 501 1,484 1,970

Exterior Lighting RAP 17 32 44 136 208

MAP 25 48 65 182 278

Economic Potential 36 68 89 228 342

Technical Potential 42 75 99 251 360

Refrigeration RAP 21 27 34 108 159

MAP 33 42 53 161 229

Economic Potential 54 68 84 236 320

Technical Potential 80 103 127 329 426

Food Preparation RAP 1 2 4 12 17

MAP 2 4 6 18 26

Economic Potential 3 6 9 28 39

Technical Potential 3 6 9 28 39

Office Equipment RAP 19 36 59 142 191

MAP 28 54 89 204 267

Economic Potential 48 90 148 320 401

Technical Potential 94 149 220 441 537

Miscellaneous RAP 0 0 0 1 2

MAP 0 0 0 1 2

Economic Potential 0 0 0 2 3

Technical Potential 0 0 1 3 4

Total RAP 231 376 523 1,736 2,495

MAP 354 570 779 2,435 3,430

Economic Potential 547 864 1,155 3,342 4,507

Technical Potential 722 1,093 1,448 4,005 5,196Measure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5

- 13 

## Industrial Measure

- level Potential In this study, Ameren’s opt

- out customers have been excluded from the study. Therefore, the industrial sector is the small sector in the analysis in terms of the baseline projection and savings potential. Net cumulative savings for measure

- level achievable potential in the industrial sector are 32 GWh for RAP and 45 GWh for MAP in 2018. Table 5

- 11 and Figure 5

- 8 present the savings for the various types of potential considered in this study

.

Table 5

- 11 Measure

- level E E Potential for the Industrial Sector

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030
Baseline projection (GWh) 3,209 3,242 3,267 3,383 3,511

Cumulative Net Savings (GWh)

Realistic Achievable Potential 13 23 32 118 173

Maximum Achievable Potential 19 33 45 160 232

Economic Potential 29 50 67 221 309

Technical Potential 80 110 144 449 584 Cumulative Net Savings as a % of Baseline

Realistic Achievable Potential 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 3.5% 4.9%

Maximum Achievable Potential 0.6% 1.0% 1.4% 4.7% 6.6%

Economic Potential 0.9% 1.5% 2.1% 6.5% 8.8%

Technical Potential 2.5% 3.4% 4.4% 13.3% 16.6%

Figure 5

- 8 Industrial Measure

- level Potential Savings



### Industrial Top 10 Measures
Table 5

- 12 identifies the top ten measures in the industrial sector for RAP in 2018. These ten measures account for 77% of total RAP savings. The measures with the most savings are variable speed contro ls for motors, high

- efficiency linear fluorescent lighting and fan system optimization

. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030Energy Savings (% of Baseline Forecast) Realistic Achievable Potential

Maximum Achievable Potential

Economic Potential

Technical PotentialMeasure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential

5

- 14 www.enernoc.com Table 5

- 12 Industrial Top 10 Measures in RAP in 2018

Rank Measure 2018 Savings % of Total

1 Motors

- Variable Speed Controls 4.5 14.2%

2 Interior Lighting

- Linear Fluorescent 3.7 11.8%

3 Fan System

- Optimization 3.1 9.9%

4 Compressed Air

- System Optimization and Improvements 2.7 8.4%

5 Interior Lighting

- Screw

- in 2.6 8.2%

6 Exterior Lighting

- Screw

- in 2.6 8.0%

7 Fan Equipment Upgrade 1.8 5.6%

8 Ventilation

– Conversion to VAV 1.7 5.3%

9 Interior Lighting

- Daylighting Controls 1.0 3.0%

10 Cooling

- Roof top AC 1.0 3.0%
Total 24.5 77.4%

Figure 5

- 9 illustrates RAP savings by end use in 2018 and 2025 for the industrial sector. The largest shares of savings opportunities are in the motors and machine dr ive s. P otential savings for straight motor equipment change

- outs are being eliminated due to the National Electrical Manufacturer’s Association (NEMA) standards, which now make premium efficiency motors the baseline efficiency level. As a result, the savin gs opportunities in this end use come from controls, timers, and variable speed drives, which improve system efficiencies where motors are utilized. These system

- level measures and upgrades are also applicable to a large swath of applications for heating, cooling, and electrochemical processes. Beyond motors and processes, there are large opportunities for savings in lighting and cooling.

Figure 5

- 9 Industrial Measure

- level RAP Savings by End Use in 2018 and 2025

Cooling

12% Heating
3%

Ventilation
6%

Interior Lighting

28%

Exterior Lighting

9%

Motors 42% Cooling
11% Heating 2%

Ventilation
5%

Interior Lighting
33%

Exterior Lighting

8% Motors

41%Measure

- Level Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5

- 15 

### Industrial Potential by End Use
Table 5

- 13 provides estimates of savings for each end use and type of potent ial.

Table 5

- 13 Industrial Measure

- level Potential by End Use and Potential Type (GWh)

End Use Case 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Cooling RAP 2 3 4 13 17

MAP 2 4 6 18 23
Economic Potential 4 6 8 24 31
Technical Potential 6 9 12 32 40

Heating RAP 1 1 1 3 4

MAP 1 1 1 4 6
Economic Potential 1 2 2 6 8
Technical Potential 3 4 5 12 16

Ventilation RAP 1 1 2 6 7

MAP 1 2 3 9 10
Economic Potential 2 3 4 13 14
Technical Potential 2 4 5 15 17

Interior Lighting RAP 4 6 9 39 65

MAP 6 10 13 54 89
Economic Potential 9 14 19 71 113
Technical Potential 11 17 22 80 120

Exterior Lighting RAP 1 2 3 9 12

MAP 2 3 4 10 14
Economic Potential 3 4 5 12 16
Technical Potential 3 5 6 16 20

Miscellaneous RAP 0 0 0 0 0

MAP 0 0 0 0 0
Economic Potential 0 0 0 0 0
Technical Potential 7 10 14 54 64

Motors RAP 5 10 13 48 68

MAP 7 14 18 65 90
Economic Potential 11 22 29 95 127
Technical Potential 48 63 79 238 307

Process RAP 0 0 0 0 0

MAP 0 0 0 0 0
Economic Potential 0 0 0 0 0
Technical Potential 0 0 0 0 0

Total RAP 13 23 32 118 0

MAP 19 33 45 160 0
Economic Potential 29 50 67 221 0
Technical Potential 80 110 144 449 0EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6

- 1 

### CHAPTER 6



## PROGRAM POTENTIAL

Within the p rogram p otential analysis, t he energy efficiency measures covered in previous chapters are bundled into delivery mechanisms to form specific energy efficiency programs. Table 6

- 1 lists the preliminary programs to deliver an effective and ba lanced portfolio of energy savings opportunities across all customer segments.

Table 6

- 1 Portfolio of Energy Efficiency Programs Included in Program Potential
Residential Programs Business Programs
Lighting Prescriptive Rebates
Energy Efficient Products Custom Incentives

Low Income Retrocommissioning
New Construction & Code Support New Construction & Code Support

Home Performance Small Business Direct Install

HVAC Multi Family Common Area
Appliance Recycling Strategic Energy Management (SEM)

Consumer Electronics
Multi Family Direct Install



## Programmatic Framework and Program Descriptions For each program, the analysis considers and develops a programmatic framework for administrators and implementers and includes the items listed below.

• Target market

• Implementation strategy, including delivery channels, marketing, education and outreach

• Program issues, risks and risk management strategies

• Elig ible measures and incentives

• Evaluation, measurement and verification requirements and guidance

• Administrative requirements

• Estimated participation

• Program budget

• Program energy savings and demand reduction

• Cost

- effective ness To develop program potential from measure

- level achievable potential

, the measure mix may change due to a number of the program delivery factors described above. Therefore, the program potential is an optimized subset of the measure

- level potential designed for implementation in a spe cific market and service territory. Also, the installations resulting from the measure

- level analysis were smoothed to achieve continuity with historic programs and on a year

- to

- year basis. The measure

- level results reflect the timing of equipment turnover based on appliance age and this sometimes creates modeling artifacts undesirable to an implementer. For instance, if the measure

- level model produces a spike of installations in the year a newProgram Potential

6

- 2 www.enernoc.com technology first becomes available, this should be leveled out in the program design to a pattern that is more realistic but such that the total number of installations over the study timeframe is equal to the measure

- level model. This smoothing of installations typically has only minor effects from year to year.

Fo r the business sector, we removed twenty

- five percent of the measure

- level potential from offices and schools to represent the potential that is associated with the public sector. The Ameren programs do not target public sector buildings, but they are incl uded in the measure

level potential. Public sector buildings are the target of programs from other entitites.

The most significant difference between measure

- level potential and program potential is the assignment of program costs. The approach used identi fie s costs as base

- program costs (or above

- the

- line costs) and portfolio administration costs (or below

- the

- line costs)

. Base program costs include incentive costs and implementation costs

. Incentive costs are defined as a percent of incremental measure co sts, both for equipment and installation, based on generic rules that are used for best practice program planning around the country

. Implementation costs are then specified and benchmarked to general best practices

. A similar best practice allocation and benchmarking process is then followed for the below

- the

- line portfolio administration costs: EM&V, portfolio marketing, and portfolio administration.

With the additional program costs levied on the program

- level potential

, the cost

- effectiveness criterion is violated for both RAP and MAP (TRC <1.0). T herefore

, program design judgment was applied to refine the portfolio by scaling back installations of less economic measures. As an example, the number of installations of HVAC retrocommissioning in industria l facilities was reduced where it was is less effective than

, say, in office buildings

. Another example of where the number of installations was reduced i s in expensive, emerging technology measures in the study’s out

- years : the number of SEER 21 installat ions for central air conditioning and linear fluorescent

- style LED lamps, both of which show very marginal economics , were significantly reduced . Unless edited, these examples become cost effective in the 2020s , become very prevalent in programs, and levy disproportionate costs to the bottom line. (It should be noted that we did not alter the installation of more cost

- effective, lower SEER levels or other LED lights.)
Another program design intervention that was applied to measure

- level results was to manua lly include some CFL measures in the mix of screw

- in lighting installations. The measure

- level model selected LEDs for these installations exclusively, but the market reality is that some CFLs will continue to produce savings in programs. Aligning with pro gram planning assumptions from Ameren, the program potential begins in 2016 by splitting the available screw

- in measures 70% to CFLs and 30% to LEDs. This mix shifts rapidly toward LEDs, however, and is 90% LED by the end of the study timeframe.

Below are summary highlights of the programs we recommend for delivery, along with key elements of each one’s programmatic framework

. 

### Residential Programs

Lighting This program emphasizes s tandardized rebates and upstream buy downs

, with a market transformation focus . The concentration will be on both CFL and LED l ighting , with LEDs becoming more prominent in the measure mix quickly as time progresses. LED technology costs are declining very quickly, and they are cost

- effective for the residential sector in our m odels immediately when the study timeframe begins in 2016. Note that savings from general purpose lamps decrease over time due to the EISA standards, which increase the efficiency of the baseline technology, as well as ongoing market transformation. Meanwh ile, the n umber of specialty lamps delivered by the program increases over the same period, as these lamps are not covered by EISA.Program Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6

- 3 Energy Efficient Products This program emphasizes s tandardized rebates, and upstream buydowns, with a market transformatio n focus . Specific measure s covered under this program include high

- efficiency central air conditioning and heat pumps, water heaters, pool pumps and heaters, attic and c eiling fans , air purifiers, thermostats, low

- flow water fixtures, and water heater pipe insulation. The primary delivery mechanism for this program is via retailers, particularly big box stores.

Low Income This program provides education and a suite of electric efficiency measures to help income

qualified customers reduce their energy bills

. Whereas existing Ameren low income programs target multifamily housing, this recommended program expands offerings to all income

- qualified residential customers. These customers are defined as those with an average household income at or below 200% of th e federal poverty level

. Full installation of direct

- install measures is subsidized and provided to the residents.

M

easures in this program are high

- efficiency central air conditioning and heat pumps, water heaters, CFLs

, LEDs, low

- flow water fixtures

, water heater pipe insulation, building shell infiltration control

, insulation, windows, and ceiling fans

. This particular program is n ot highly cost

- effective, but consensus agreement around the nation is that this is acceptable for income

- limited populati ons, as long as the o verall portfolio is still cost

- effective.

New Construction & Code Support This program is designed to accelerate the incorporation of energy efficient design, construction, and operation in new residential buildings. It provides educa tion and incentive payments to upstream designer

- builders and owner

- builders for installing high efficiency end

- use equipment

— mainly HVAC and lighting

— and building envelope measures.

Home Performance This program incorporates a whole

- home focus to p rov ide educat ion and a suite of electric efficiency measures that help residential customers improve the energy performance of their home and systems and reduce energy bills

. The program is targeted at the existing home market and is a prime candidate for cro ss

- selling into other programs and measures, chiefly the HVAC program.

Current direct install measures in this program are CFLs and low

- flow water fixtures

. More involved measures include efficient air conditioning and heat pump equipment, lighting, insula tion, windows, duct repair & sealing, programmable thermostats, and ceiling and attic fans.

H VAC This program is explicitly aimed at improving HVAC systems, with the primary delivery mechanism being trade allies such as contractors who install and maintain HVAC systems. Measures include high

- efficiency central air conditioning and heat pumps, ducting insulation, ducting repair and sealing, and programmable thermostats. It also supports maintenance of AC and heat pump systems, and early replacement of aging central AC.

Appliance Recycling This program pursues energy savings by offering a bounty paymen t to customers to remove their old, inefficient appliances from the grid and recycle them. It has the potential to deliver large savings available from three cost

- effective measures : room air

- conditioners, secondary refrigerators , and secondary freezers.

O ne concern with this program is the possibility that a fter program pick

- up of their secondary refrigerator, residents might simply buy a new unit and move their former primary unit into theProgram Potential

6

- 4 www.enernoc.com garage or basement to replace it. This is why the program is penal ized with a challenging net

- to

gross ratio.

Consumer Electronics This program provides incentives to promote purchase of ENERGY STAR and high

- efficiency televisions, personal computers, monitors, laptops, and set

- top equipment such as DVRs or game systems . It also provides support for smart power strips that can reduce use when systems are in standby mode. The program emphasizes s tandardized rebates and upstream buydowns, with a market transformation focus

.
Multi Family Direct Install This program provides targeted, highly cost

- effective measures to multifamily households in a quickly deployable program delivery mechanism. These are often rental units with split incentive barriers, i.e., the landlord is the owner of the equipment but th e tenant pays the energy bills. It is therefore typically an underserved market with respect to energy efficiency programs and an important program to include in the portfolio.
Measures in this program are primarily CFLs, LEDs, infiltration control, therm ostats, and low

- flow water fixtures. Program delivery will rely heavily on trade allies. Full installation of these direct

install measures is provided at no cost to program participants.



### Business Programs

Prescriptive Rebates This program is d esigned to help business customers save energy through a broad range of EE options that address all major end uses and processes. It o ffers incentives to customers and engages equipment suppliers and contractors to promote t he incentive

- eligible equipment, focusing on s tandardized rebates, upstream buydowns, and market transformation.
Together with Custom Incentives, this program is where a bulk of business program savings and dollars are focused. Business energy efficiency efforts are very project

- centric, with many large projects participating in a hybrid of standard, prescriptive rebates and custom project incentives. Thus, delivery is integrated in many ways between the two programs

. It is worth noting that, as in the residential portfolio, LED lighting is an imp ortant, cost

- effective measure in non

- residential applications at the outset of the study timeframe in 2016. LED technology costs are declining very quickly, and will become a larger and larger part of the business programs in the coming years.

Custom Inc entives This program is d esigned to help business customers save energy through customizable projects that are too complex to fit in a standard prescriptive rebate offering.
Together with Prescriptive Rebates , this program is where a bulk of business pro gram savings and dollars are focused. Business energy efficiency efforts are very project

- centric, with many large projects participating in a hybrid of standard, prescriptive rebates and custom project incentives. Thus, delivery is integrated in many ways between the two programs.

Retrocommissioning This program involves the initial, periodic, or continual monitoring and commissioning of building energy systems such as heating, cooling, ventilation, and lighting in order to optimize energy consumption rela tive to actual building usage. The focus is on low

- cost or no

- cost measures such as control strategies, sensor adjustment or replacement, set

- point adjustments, and the like.Program Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6

- 5 New Construction & Code Support This program, starting in 201 6 , is designed to accelerate the incorporation of energy efficient design, construction, and operation in new business facilities and buildings . It provides education and incentive payments to upstream designer

- builders and owner

- builders for installing hig h efficiency end

- use equipment and building envelope measures

.

Small Business Direct Install This program p rovides targeted, highly cost

- effective measures to small business customers in a quickly deployable program delivery mechanism to help them reduce their energy bills and foster awareness and cross

- selling of other efficiency portfolio efforts.

M

easures include l ighting replacements, HVAC equipment maintenance, low

- flow faucet aerators and pre

- rinse sprayers

, occupancy controls for lighting, programm able thermostats, and smart power strips

. The program goal is to deploy a network of qualified trade allies and contractors that can install these measures quickly and free of charge to participants. The program aims to perform a site assessment and implem entation of measures on the same day.

Multi Family Common Area This program is a natural complement to the Multi Family program that addresses energy used within the residential units. Many of the same trade ally channels can be used to promote both progra ms. Measures covered for Multi Family Common Areas include LEDs, CFLs, high

- bay fixtures, lighting and daylighting controls, HVAC equipment, non

- HVAC motors, insulation, and water

- saving low

- flow fixtures.

Strategic Energy Management Strategic Energy Management (or SEM) involves e nergy education, advising, and coaching for

non

- residential customers to drive behavioral change and transformation of company culture toward improved energy efficiency and utilization. This means the appointment of energy lia isons and team s within participating organizations who will regularly correspond with program representatives. I nstitutionalizing internal policies and practices this way creates long

- lasting behavioral

- based savings , operational savings, and installation of tangible energy

- saving equipment and measures

.Program Poten tial

6

- 6 www.enernoc.com 

## Program Potential Results In this section, a high

- level summary of program potential is presented, followed by year

- by

- year program savings and costs.



### Summary of Program Potential
Table 6

- 2 and Figure 6

- 1 present a high

- level summary of program potential as well as measure

level potential.

• At the end of the 2016

- 18 program cycle, program potential is in the range of 539 GWh to 768 GWh. As a p ercent of the baseline projection, the cumulative savings in 2018 are in the

ra nge of 1.8% to 2.5%.

• By 2030, program RAP and MAP increase to 2,133 GWh and 2,890 GWh, respectively.

Table 6

- 2 Summary of Program Potential

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

Baseline Projection (GWh) 30,249 30,449 30,694 32,228 33,721 Cumulative Savings (GWh)
Program RAP 174 346 539 1,629 2,133
Program MAP 251 495 768 2,235 2,890 RAP (Measure

- Level) 339 561 806 2,697 3,958 MAP (Measure

- Level) 510 833 1,178 3,753 5,376 Cumulative Savings (% of Baseline)
Program RAP 0.6% 1.1% 1.8% 5.1% 6.3%
Program MAP 0.8% 1.6% 2.5% 6.9% 8.6%
RAP (Measure

- Level) 1.1% 1.8% 2.6% 8.4% 11.7% MAP (Measure

- Level) 1.7% 2.7% 3.8% 11.6% 15.9%

Figure 6

- 1 Summary of Program and Measure

- level RAP and MAP ( % of baseline)

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%



### 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 Program RAP RAP (Measure-Level)
Program MAP MAP (Measure-Level)Program Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6

- 7 

### Year

- by

- year Program Potential
The year

- by

- year p rogram p otential results for the RAP and MAP program portfolios a re shown below. Figure 6

- 2 and Figure 6

- 3 show the net incremental energy savings in each year of the study by program for the RAP and MAP cases respectively. Figure 6

- 4 and Figure 6

- 5 show the annual budgets for RAP and MAP cases respectively for the portfolio. Note that the savings presented here are net savings not gross savings.

Figure 6

- 2 RAP Program Potential

- Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh)

Figure 6

- 3 MAP Program Potential

- Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh) - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000Total Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh) Res Lighting
Res Energy Efficient Products

Res Low Income
Res New Construction & Code Support

Res Home Performance

Res HVAC
Res Appliance Recycling

Res Consumer Electronics
Res Multi Family Direct Install
Bus Prescriptive Rebates

Bus Custom Incentives
Bus Retrocommissioning
Bus New Construction & Code Support

Bus Small Business Direct Install
Bus Multi Family Common Area
Bus Strategic Energy Management

- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000Total Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh) Res Lighting
Res Energy Efficient Products

Res Low Income
Res New Construction & Code Support

Res Home Performance

Res HVAC
Res Appliance Recycling

Res Consumer Electronics
Res Multi Family Direct Install
Bus Prescriptive Rebates

Bus Custom Incentives
Bus Retrocommissioning
Bus New Construction & Code Support

Bus Small Business Direct Install
Bus Multi Family Common Area
Bus Strategic Energy ManagementProgram Potential

6

- 8 www.enernoc.com Figure 6

- 4 RAP Program Potential

- Annual Utility Budgets

Figure 6

- 5 MAP Program Potential

- Annual Utility Budgets

Table 6

- 3 and Table 6

- 4 shows the detailed annual savings and budgets for the recommended portfolios. $0 $10,000,000 $20,000,000 $30,000,000 $40,000,000 $50,000,000 $60,000,000 $70,000,000 $80,000,000 $90,000,000Annual Utility Budgets Res Lighting
Res Energy Efficient Products

Res Low Income
Res New Construction & Code Support

Res Home Performance

Res HVAC
Res Appliance Recycling

Res Consumer Electronics
Res Multi Family Direct Install
Bus Prescriptive Rebates

Bus Custom Incentives
Bus Retrocommissioning
Bus New Construction & Code Support

Bus Small Business Direct Install
Bus Multi Family Common Area
Bus Strategic Energy Management

$0 $20,000,000 $40,000,000 $60,000,000 $80,000,000 $100,000,000 $120,000,000 $140,000,000 $160,000,000Annual Utility Budgets Res Lighting

Res Energy Efficient Products

Res Low Income
Res New Construction & Code Support

Res Home Performance

Res HVAC
Res Appliance Recycling

Res Consumer Electronics

Res Multi Family Direct Install

Bus Prescriptive Rebates

Bus Custom Incentives

Bus Retrocommissioning

Bus New Construction & Code Support

Bus Small Business Direct Install

Bus Multi Family Common Area

Bus Strategic Energy ManagementProgram Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6

- 9 Table 6

- 3 RAP Program Potential Portfolio Summary

Program Total Program Administrator Cost (000$) Total Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh) Total Net Incremental Demand Savings (kW)

2016 2017 2018 20 25 2030 2016 2017 2018 20 25 2030 2016 2017 2018 20 25 2030
Res Lighting 4,438 5,032 4,446 2,744 1,593 19,876 21,234 22,043 3,528 2,893 1,196 1,278 1,326 213 174
Res Energy Efficient Products 2,363 2,457 2,624 4,277 4,991 7,094 7,150 8,871 13,864 14,940 1,365 1,381 1,543 1,817 1,882

Res Low Income 6,817 6,881 6,942 8,648 8,980 7,613 7,797 8,031 8,403 8,830 971 970 995 889 877
Res New Construction & Code Support 1,268 1,423 1,546 1,846 2,498 2,912 3,057 3,452 4,206 5,508 391 464 631 752 842

Res Home Performance 3,344 3,357 3,515 3,945 4,717 8,819 8,839 9,815 10,243 11,400 1,721 1,707 1,979 1,895 2,049

Res HVAC 6,126 6,446 6,709 7,077 7,761 9,190 9,464 10,410 11,586 13,816 5,356 5,538 5,761 6,221 6,965

Res Appliance Recycling 1,966 1,886 2,998 1,671 3,718 7,261 6,717 10,499 5,058 10,908 887 820 1,280 525 1,408

Res Consumer Electronics 1,117 1,018 1,161 579 535 5,933 4,981 5,863 1,879 1,741 481 403 474 150 138
Res Multi Family Direct Install 534 543 576 615 672 1,166 1,192 1,370 1,594 1,719 230 237 267 351 405
Bus Prescriptive Rebates 6,856 7,943 7,958 8,510 8,340 31,556 32,325 32,614 45,694 50,035 8,351 7,149 7,557 8,028 6,441

Bus Custom Incentives 11,985 12,608 13,180 15,265 15,248 46,490 39,906 42,910 49,511 44,891 11,461 8,992 9,775 11,466 9,988
Bus Retrocommissioning 1,103 1,091 1,275 1,721 2,209 7,942 7,729 8,706 9,580 10,958 1,852 1,665 1,764 1,939 1,825
Bus New Construction & Code Support 908 1,063 1,251 1,717 1,905 3,406 3,501 4,762 6,754 8,455 350 383 440 670 747

Bus Small Business Direct Install 7,423 9,221 9,609 10,955 8,520 9,337 9,769 11,430 15,710 14,330 2,268 1,740 2,153 2,867 2,051
Bus Multi Family Common Area 534 736 752 778 616 1,617 1,879 2,160 2,923 2,883 262 299 345 427 400

Bus Strategic Energy Management 645 1,168 1,853 2,892 3,028 3,472 6,540 10,552 16,639 17,440 682 1,285 2,073 3,271 3,430

Residential Total: 27,972 29,043 30,517 31,403 35,466 69,862 70,432 80,353 60,362 71,756 12,599 12,797 14,257 12,812 14,740

Business Total: 29,455 33,831 35,878 41,839 39,866 103,819 101,650 113,134 146,812 148,991 25,226 21,513 24,106 28,668 24,884

Portfolio Total: 57,427 62,874 66,395 73,242 75,332 173,682 172,081 193,487 207,173 220,747 37,824 34,310 38,362 41,480 39,624Program Potential

6

- 10

www.enernoc.com Table 6

- 4 MAP Program Potential Portfolio Summary

Program Total Program Administrator Cost (000$) Total Net Incremental Energy Savings (MWh) Total Net Incremental Demand Savings (kW)

2016 2017 2018 20 25 2030 2016 2017 2018 20 25 2030 2016 2017 2018 20 25 2030
Res Lighting 7,808 8,857 7,822 3,822 2,115 28,102 30,007 30,997 3,812 2,833 1,690 1,804 1,864 230 171
Res Energy Efficient Products 4,424 4,600 4,905 7,831 9,045 10,154 10,244 12,544 18,976 19,973 1,864 1,886 2,100 2,428 2,474

Res Low Income 8,970 9,068 9,139 11,193 11,619 10,387 10,655 10,954 11,114 11,566 1,313 1,315 1,346 1,174 1,150
Res New Construction & Code Support 2,401 2,690 2,944 3,443 4,600 4,066 4,262 4,826 5,762 7,379 560 660 910 1,024 1,112

Res Home Performance 6,158 6,173 6,481 7,130 8,495 12,206 12,202 13,563 13,723 14,985 2,383 2,349 2,742 2,505 2,664

Res HVAC 11,193 11,770 12,256 12,845 14,104 12,577 12,919 14,249 15,690 18,634 7,082 7,310 7,609 8,137 9,096
Res Appliance Recycling 2,564 2,448 3,857 2,095 4,626 9,366 8,614 13,419 6,254 13,461 1,142 1,049 1,633 644 1,741

Res Consumer Electronics 1,798 1,640 1,861 871 785 8,609 7,246 8,491 2,426 2,166 697 586 687 193 171
Res Multi Family Direct Install 688 700 735 773 839 1,468 1,503 1,698 1,910 2,057 273 281 313 401 462
Bus Prescriptive Rebates 14,080 16,084 16,115 17,450 16,995 46,042 46,630 46,616 62,400 67,305 11,983 10,119 10,639 10,772 8,423

Bus Custom Incentives 26,809 27,341 28,675 33,050 32,676 68,791 57,286 61,106 68,831 61,349 17,037 12,839 13,944 15,742 13,307
Bus Retrocommissioning 2,707 2,664 3,122 4,101 5,282 11,749 11,312 12,697 12,976 14,220 2,710 2,418 2,550 2,692 2,417

Bus New Construction & Code Support 1,985 2,280 2,716 3,600 4,013 4,995 5,025 6,824 8,874 11,016 493 530 612 909 1,007

Bus Small Business Direct Install 10,020 12,284 12,818 15,009 11,669 13,022 13,395 15,477 21,333 19,581 3,215 2,403 2,950 3,860 2,723
Bus Multi Family Common Area 1,093 1,520 1,555 1,666 1,305 2,234 2,568 2,908 3,975 3,956 357 405 463 575 536
Bus Strategic Energy Management 1,290 1,965 2,806 3,890 4,073 6,943 10,901 15,828 22,186 23,254 1,364 2,141 3,109 4,361 4,574

Residential Total: 46,004 47,946 49,999 50,004 56,227 96,934 97,653 110,742 79,667 93,054 17,003 17,241 19,204 16,735 19,041

Business Total: 57,984 64,137 67,808 78,768 76,014 153,776 147,118 161,456 200,574 200,681 37,161 30,855 34,267 38,911 32,986

Portfolio Total: 103,988 112,083 117,807 128,772 132,240 250,710 244,770 272,198 280,241 293,735 54,164 48,095 53,471 55,647 52,027Program Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6

- 11 

## Cost

- effectiveness With the program savings and budgets, we perform the industry standard cost

- effectiveness tests to gauge the economic merits of the portfolio. Each test compares the benefits of the EE programs to their costs

— using its own unique perspectives and definitions

— all defined in terms of net present value of future cash flows. The definitions for the four standard tests most commonly used in EE program design are described below

.

• Total Resource Cost test (TRC). The benefits in this test are the lifetime avoided energy costs and avoided capacity costs. The costs in this test are the incremental measure costs plus all administrative costs spent by the pr ogram administrator.

• Utility Cost T est (UCT). The benefits in this test are the lifetime avoided energy costs and avoided capacity costs, the same as the TRC benefits. The costs in this test are the program administrator’s incentive costs and administrati ve costs.

• Participant Cost T est ( PCT ). The benefits in this test are the lifetime value of retail rate savings (which is another way of saying “lost utility revenues”). The costs in this test are those seen by the participant; in other words: the incremental measure costs minus the value of incentives paid out.

• Rate Impact Measure test (RIM). The benefits of the RIM test are the same as the TRC benefits. The RIM costs are the same as the UCT, except for the addition of lost revenue. This test attem pts to show the effects that EE programs will have on rates, which is almost always to raise them on a per unit basis. Thus, costs typically outweigh benefits from the point of view of this test, but the assumption is that absolute energy use decreases to a greater extent than per

- unit rates are increased

— resulting in lower average utility bills

. The cost

- effectiveness results for the Program Plan RAP case are shown in Table 6

- 5 , indicating lifetime TRC benefits of $2,008 million and costs of $1,547 million for a TRC ratio of 1.30. For the MAP case, shown in Table 6

- 6 , TRC benefi ts and costs respectively are $2,718 million and $2,190, resulting in a TRC ratio of 1.24.

Table 6

- 5 RAP Portfolio Cost

- Effectiveness Summary

TRC Ratio TRC Benefits TRC Costs UCT Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio
Res Lighting 1.35 $87,778,355 $64,869,977 1.99 7.52 0.44 Res Energy Efficient Products 1.19 $105,744,748 $88,655,071 2.13 3.71 0.54

Res Low Income 0.69 $73,213,136 $106,343,099 0.69

- 0.35
Res New Construction & Code Support 1.12 $51,525,317 $45,979,925 1.99 3.00 0.60

Res Home Performance 1.01 $97,882,515 $96,848,516 1.83 2.99 0.53

Res HVAC 1.17 $198,678,743 $169,770,774 2.13 2.25 0.75 Res Appliance Recycling 1.55 $58,410,006 $37,597,855 1.55

- 0.46
Res Consumer Electronics 1.13 $11,596,914 $10,260,877 1.13

- 0.39 Res Multi Family Direct Install 1.37 $11,109,698 $8,092,535 1.37

- 0.51 Bus Prescriptive Rebates 1.71 $391,985,341 $228,951,865 3.72 3.55 0.72

Bus Custom Incentives 1.34 $560,574,779 $417,091,262 2.93 2.94 0.65 Bus Retrocommissioning 1.22 $61,320,491 $50,342,234 2.69 2.75 0.62
Bus New Construction & Code Support 1.24 $56,776,309 $45,703,176 2.67 3.44 0.54

Bus Small Business Direct In stall 1.38 $170,452,265 $123,601,265 1.38

- 0.49 Bus Multi Family Common Area 1.61 $30,998,372 $19,253,581 3.38 4.28 0.59 Bus Strategic Energy M gmt. 1.20 $40,126,710 $33,339,685 1.20

- 0.48
Residential Total: 1.11 $695,939,432 $628,418,628 1.62 4.47 0.53
Business Total: 1.43 $1,312,234,267 $918,283,068 2.59 3.84 0.63
Portfolio Total: 1.30 $2,008,173,699 $1,546,701,696 2.15 4.04 0.59Program Potential

6

- 12 www.enernoc.com Table 6

- 6 MAP Portfolio Cost

- Effectiveness Summary

TRC Ratio TRC Benefits TRC Costs UCT Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio
Res Lighting 1.28 $111,840,012 $87,218,945 1.59 12.03 0.41 Res Energy Efficient Products 1.17 $142,520,051 $121,579,637 1.56 6.43 0.50

Res Low Income 0.70 $96,830,378 $138,418,512 0.70

- 0.35
Res New Construction & Code Support 1.08 $69,786,162 $64,463,104 1.44 5.09 0.54

Res Home Performance 1.00 $130,791,887 $131,299,149 1.34 5.12 0.48

Res HVAC 1.16 $266,376,831 $229,946,924 1.56 3.95 0.66 Res Appliance Recycling 1.54 $73,063,272 $47,471,692 1.54

- 0.46
Res Consumer Electronics 1.00 $15,937,374 $15,891,266 1.00

- 0.37 Res Multi Family Direct Install 1.32 $13,513,617 $10,218,208 1.32

- 0.49 Bus Prescriptive Rebates 1.62 $530,256,664 $327,533,467 2.47 5.28 0.65

Bus Custom Incentives 1.24 $778,261,341 $625,618,404 1.87 4.42 0.58 Bus Retrocommissioning 1.04 $84,900,708 $81,419,456 1.55 3.92 0.53
Bus New Construction & Code Support 1.14 $76,680,928 $67,548,965 1.70 5.03 0.48

Bus Small Business Direct In stall 1.38 $230,857,250 $167,205,819 1.38

- 0.49 Bus Multi Family Common Area 1.48 $41,809,189 $28,216,191 2.18 6.46 0.54 Bus Strategic Energy Mgmt. 1.18 $54,534,459 $46,035,085 1.18

- 0.47
Residential Total: 1.09 $920,659,585 $846,507,437 1.33 7.54 0.49
Business Total: 1.34 $1,797,300,539 $1,343,577,388 1.87 5.69 0.57
Portfolio Total: 1.24 $2,717,960,124 $2,190,084,824 1.65 6.23 0.54



## Supply Curves The purpose of supply curves is to better understand the relationship between energy efficiency savings and the costs required to reach those savings levels. Energy efficiency measures and/or programs and their associated impacts are rank

- ordered according to their cost per unit of savings. The two data points (unit cost and savings impacts) are plotted on a line chart. As programs become more expensive, there is a point on the supply curve where it appears that significantly greater cost will be required t o reach very little additional EE savings.
Supply curves can yield insights about a portfolio of conservation programs. Such insights are not visible when one is looking at the impacts and costs associated with any one individual program

. In the s upply c urves , the y

- axis shows the unit cost of the saved energy, and the x

- axis shows the energy savings impacts. T o develop the supply curves, the following data must be considered and assembled.



### Y

- axis: Unit Cost For the y

- axis, one must represent each measur e or program’s cost per unit of energy saved. This can be done on a first

- year basis or a levelized/lifetime basis, wherein the cost is amortized or spread across the lifetime of the savings. Once this data is assembled, it is rank

- ordered from least cost to highest cost.



### X

- axis: Energy Savings Impacts
For the x

- axis, one must represent the energy savings obtained by each measure or program. This can be done in terms of absolute energy savings or as a percentage of the baseline projection . The supply curve and associated data can also be prepared for a single year at a time, or for a summation of cumulative savings over multiple years. Different formulations areProgram Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6

- 13 useful for different purposes, and it is important to specify the assumptions when presenting th e data. An example data set is shown in Table 6

- 7 below.

Table 6

- 7 Example of Measure Data Preparation for Supply Curve

Measures Entering Supply Curve Incre

mental
Measure

Cost Number of Units Annual kWh Savings/

U nit Effective Useful

Life (years) X

- Axis Y

- Axis (option 1) Y

- Axis (option 2)

Total First

Year kWh

Savings First

- Year $/kWh Lifetime or Levelized $/kWh*

A B C D B * C A / C (A amortized over D) * / C
CFL lamp $2 100,000 30 5 3,000,000 $0.07 $0.01
Ceiling Insulation $500 1,200 1500 25 1,800,000 $0.33 $0.02

SEER 16 AC $150 800 350 14 280,000 $0.43 $0.04

Heat Pump Maint

. $50 150 90 3 13,500 $0.56 $0.19
* Assuming a discount rate of 3.00%



### Program Supply Curves Once the data is assembled, it can be plotted on a supply curve that has a new data point for every measure, stacked from lowest unit cost to highest unit cost. Figure 6

- 6 provides levelized cost supply curves for installations under the two Program Potential cases described above, for the period 2016

– 2018. Figure 6

- 7 provides this information for the period 2016

- 2033.

Figure 6

- 6 Levelized Cost Supply Curves, 2016

– 2018, RAP and MAP Portfolios



### $- $0.010 $0.020 $0.030 $0.040 $0.050 $0.060 $0.070 $0.080 $0.090 $0.100

- 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000Levelized Cost per kWh (2016-2018)



### Cumulative MWh Savings in 2018 RAP MAPProgram Potential

6

- 14 www.enernoc.com Figure 6

- 7 Levelized Cost Supply Curves, 2016

– 2033 RAP and MAP Portfolios

The data corresponding to Figure 6

- 6 and Figure 6

- 7 is provided in Table 6

- 8

. Table 6

- 9 shows first

- year costs by program

.

Table 6

- 8 Levelized Cost by Program

- RAP and MAP

RAP Levelized $/kWh
2016

- 2018 MAP Levelized $/kWh
2016

- 2018 RAP Levelized $/kWh
2016

- 2033 MAP Levelized $/kWh
2016

- 2033

Res Lighting $0.018 $0.023 $0.028 $0.035 Res Energy Efficient Products $0.037 $0.049 $0.035 $0.047

Res Low Income $0.089 $0.085 $0.103 $0.101

Res New Construction & Code $0.045 $0.060 $0.045 $0.062

Res Home Performance $0.039 $0.051 $0.043 $0.058

Res HVAC $0.063 $0.083 $0.057 $0.076 Res Appliance Recycling $0.036 $0.036 $0.041 $0.041

Res Consumer Electronics $0.039 $0.043 $0.046 $0.051 Res Multi Family Direct Install $0.056 $0.056 $0.057 $0.058 Bus Prescriptive Rebates $0.026 $0.037 $0.024 $0.036

Bus Custom Incentives $0.028 $0.043 $0.029 $0.046
Bus Retrocommissioning $0.023 $0.039 $0.029 $0.050

Bus New Construction & Code $0.032 $0.048 $0.026 $0.042

Bus Small Business Direct Install $0.085 $0.083 $0.059 $0.059 Bus Multi Family Common Area $0.036 $0.054 $0.023 $0.035

Bus Strategic Energy Management $0.062 $0.062 $0.060 $0.061

Residential Total: $0.041 $0.049 $0.049 $0.059

Non

- Residential Total: $0.035 $0.046 $0.033 $0.045

Portfolio Total: $0.037 $0.047 $0.039 $0.050 

### $- $0.020 $0.040 $0.060 $0.080 $0.100 $0.120

- 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000Levelized Cost per kWh (2016-2033)



### Cumulative MWh Savings in 2033 RAP MAPProgram Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6

- 15 Table 6

- 9 First

- year Cost per kWh by Program

— RAP and MAP

Program RAP MAP

2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018

Res Lighting $0.22 $0.24 $0.20 $0.28 $0.30 $0.25

Res Energy Efficient Products $0.33 $0.34 $0.30 $0.44 $0.45 $0.39

Res Low Income $0.90 $0.88 $0.86 $0.86 $0.85 $0.83
Res New Construction & Code Support $0.44 $0.47 $0.45 $0.59 $0.63 $0.61

Res Home Performance $0.38 $0.38 $0.36 $0.50 $0.51 $0.48

Res HVAC $0.67 $0.68 $0.64 $0.89 $0.91 $0.86
Res Appliance Recycling $0.27 $0.28 $0.29 $0.27 $0.28 $0.29

Res Consumer Electronics $0.19 $0.20 $0.20 $0.21 $0.23 $0.22
Res Multi Family Direct Install $0.46 $0.46 $0.42 $0.47 $0.47 $0.43
Bus Prescriptive Rebates $0.22 $0.25 $0.24 $0.31 $0.34 $0.35

Bus Custom Incentives $0.26 $0.32 $0.31 $0.39 $0.48 $0.47
Bus Retrocommissioning $0.14 $0.14 $0.15 $0.23 $0.24 $0.25
Bus New Construction & Code Support $0.27 $0.30 $0.26 $0.40 $0.45 $0.40

Bus Small Business Direct Install $0.80 $0.94 $0.84 $0.77 $0.92 $0.83
Bus Multi Family Common Area $0.33 $0.39 $0.35 $0.49 $0.59 $0.53
Bus Strategic Energy Management $0.19 $0.18 $0.18 $0.19 $0.18 $0.18

Residential Total $0.40 $0.41 $0.38 $0.47 $0.49 $0.45

Non

- Residential Total $0.28 $0.33 $0.32 $0.38 $0.44 $0.42

Portfolio Total $0.33 $0.37 $0.34 $0.41 $0.46 $0.43EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 7

- 1 

## SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

In addition to development of a reference case of energy

- efficiency potential, sensitivity analyses

were performed for three key assumptions in the study:

• Avoided costs

• Economic growth

• Program n et

- to

- gross ratios
The remainder of this chapter describes the results of this analysis.



## Avoided Cost

Avoided costs affect the cost

- effectiveness of energy

- efficiency measures. Higher avoided costs cause more measures to pass the screen and result in higher potential savings, while lower costs cause fewer measures to pass. Of these two options, higher avoi ded costs are more interesting to assess. Chapter 5 presents the measure

- level results associated with the reference case avoided costs shown in Figure 7

- 1 . For this sensitivity analysis, the avoided costs used in the 2010 Study were applied. All other assumptions were held constant. As shown in Figure 7

- 1 , the avoided costs used in the previous study were significantly higher than those used in this study

.

Figure 7

- 1 Comparison of Avoided Costs

$- $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00Avoided Costs ($/MWh) Reference Case
Higher Avoided Costs 

### CHAPTER 7Sensitivity Analysis

7

- 2 www.enernoc.com As a result of higher avo ided costs, more measures passed the economic screen (meaning it has a TRC benefit

- to

- cost ratio greater than or equal to 1.0). For each sector

, only four additional measures passed the TRC. This indicates that very few measures are close to the marginal v alue of 1.0 in the reference case . The number of measures passing in each case is shown in Table 7

- 1

.

Table 7

- 1 Number of Measures Passing the Economic Screen

- Comparison

Reference Case Higher Avoided Cost s Additional Measures

Residential 43 47 4

Commercial 100 104 4

Industrial 39 43 4

Passing Measures 182 194 12

In the next program cycle (2016

- 2018), RAP savings using the higher avoided costs are 16% higher than in the reference case. By 2030, the cumulative RAP savings are 7% higher than in the reference case.

Table 7

- 2 EE Potential

- Comparison of Avoided Cost Sensitivity Cases (GWh)

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 RAP Potential Energy Savings (GWh)

Reference case 339 561 806 2,697 3,958 Higher a voided c ost s 395 650 932 2,96 8 4,22 9 Increase in potential savings 56 89 126 270 271 RAP Potential Energy Savings (% of Baseline)

Reference case 1.1% 1.8% 2.6% 8.4% 11.7% Higher a voided c ost s 1.3% 2.1% 3.0% 9.2% 12.5% Increase in potential savings 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% MAP Potential Energy Savings (GWh)

Reference case 510 833 1,179 3,753 5,377 Higher a voided c ost s 592 963 1,360 4,11 6 5,72 7 Increase in potential savings 82 130 181 363 350 MAP Potential Energy Savings (% of Baseline)

Reference case 1.7% 2.7% 3.8% 11.6% 15.9% Higher a voided c ost s 2.0% 3.2% 4.4% 12.8% 17.0% Increase in potential savings 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 1. 1 % 1. 0 %Sensitivity Analysis

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 7

- 3 

## Economic Growth Another major driver for the analysis is the economic growth assumption in the baseline projection

. The reference case aligns with the assumptions used for Ameren’s load forecast. For this sensitivity analysis, a low

- high band was developed.

• For the low load growth case, customer growth was assumed to be fla t in each sector.

• For the high load growth case, customer growth was 20 % over the reference case in each year. As expected and shown in Table 7

- 3 , the potential savi ngs are lower in the low economic case and higher in the high economic case.

Table 7

- 3 Comparison of Baseline Projection, MAP and RAP for Economic

- Growth Sensitivity

2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 RAP Potential Energy Savings (GWh)

Reference case 339 561 806 2,697 3,958 Low load growth 301 492 698 2, 180 3, 155 High load growth 421 690 1,000 3,383 4,861 MAP Potential Energy Savings (GWh)

Reference case 510 833 1,179 3,753 5,377

Low l oad g rowth 452 729 1, 018 3, 026 4,278 High load growth 635 1,029 1,466 4,719 6,616

Figure 7

- 2 shows the percentage change in the RAP potential for the various scenarios. The High Load Growth scenario shows the largest impact, increasing the potential savings by 23 % from the reference case.

Figure 7

- 2 Comparison of Sensitivity Cases (% change in RAP Potential savings, 2030)

High Load Growth

Scenario, 23% Low Load Growth

Scenario,

- 20% Avoided Costs Scenario, 7%

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% % Change from Base ScenarioSensitivity Analysis

7

- 4 www.enernoc.com 

## Net

- to

- gross Assumptions

A key assumption in the program design is the net

- to

- gross ratio assumed for each program . The net

- to

- gross ratio identifies the fraction of program participants who would not have purchased the EE measures in the absence of a program. The net

- to

- gross ratio us ed in the reference forecast was provided by Ameren and is based on EM&V results for each program. The sensitivity analysis assumed values 30% higher and 30% lower than the reference case.

Table 7

- 4 and Table 7

- 5 show the Program Administrator Costs for RAP and MAP respectively across the sensitivity analysis cases. With a lower n et

- to

- gross ratio, more participants are needed to achieve the savings and therefore the program administrator cost increases. In the case where the net

- to

- gross ratio is higher , more savings are achieved without incurring the cost of fulfilling as many in centives. For the high case, if the 30% increase resulted in a ratio greater than 100%, the amount over 100% is considered spillover. Figure 7

- 3 and Figure 7

- 4 compares the Program Administrator Costs for the entire portfolio in each of the sensitivity cases.

Table 7

- 6 shows the cost

- effectiveness ratios in each sensitivity case for the RAP Portfolio. Table 7

- 7 shows t he cost

- effectiveness ratios for the MAP Portfolio. With the higher program administration costs, the B/C ratio decreases significantly with a 30% reduction in the net

- to

gross ratio, while it increase significantly with a 30% increase.Sensitivity Analysis

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 7

- 5 Table 7

- 4 RAP Program Administrator Cost

Program Total Program Administrator Costs (000$)

Base Scenario 30% lower Net

- to

- Gross Ratio 30% higher Net

- to

- Gross Ratio

2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018

Residential Total: 27,972 29,043 30,517 39,668 41,197 43,304 21,675 22,498 23,632

Non

- Residential Total: 29,455 33,831 35,878 41,622 47,649 50,280 22,903 26,390 28,123

Portfolio Total: 57,427 62,874 66,395 81,290 88,846 93,583 44,578 48,888 51,755

Table 7

- 5 MAP Program Administrator Cost

Program Total Program Administrator Costs (000$)

Base Scenario 30% lower Net

- to

- Gross Ratio 30% higher Net

- to

- Gross Ratio

2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018

Residential Total: 46,004 47,946 49,999 65,225 68,000 70,932 35,654 37,148 38,727

Non

- Residential Total: 57,984 64,137 67,808 82,101 90,602 95,486 44,997 49,887 52,904

Portfolio Total: 103,988 112,083 117,807 147,327 158,602 166,418 80,652 87,035 91,632

Table 7

- 6 RAP Cost

- Effectiveness Across Sensitivity Cases

Program Base Scenario 30% lower Net

- to

- Gross Ratio 30% higher Net

- to

- Gross Ratio

TRC Ratio PA/UCT
Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio TRC Ratio PA/UCT
Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio TRC Ratio PA/UCT
Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio

Residential Total: 1.11 1.62 4.47 0.53 0.78 1.14 3.13 0.46 1.43 2.10 5.80 0.57

Non

- Residential Total: 1.43 2.59 3.84 0.63 1.01 1.86 2.69 0.57 1.83 3.29 4.99 0.66

Portfolio Total: 1.30 2.15 4.04 0.59 0.92 1.53 2.83 0.53 1.67 2.75 5.25 0.63

Table 7

- 7 MAP Cost

- Effectiveness Across Sensitivity Cases

Program Base Scenario 30% lower Net

- to

- Gross Ratio 30% higher Net

- to

- Gross Ratio

TRC Ratio PA/UCT
Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio TRC Ratio PA/UCT
Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio TRC Ratio PA/UCT
Ratio PCT Ratio RIM Ratio

Residential Total: 1.09 1.33 7.54 0.49 0.77 0.94 5.28 0.43 1.41 1.72 9.80 0.54

Non

- Residential Total: 1.34 1.87 5.69 0.57 0.95 1.33 3.98 0.51 1.72 2.39 7.40 0.62

Portfolio Total: 1.24 1.65 6.23 0.54 0.88 1.17 4.36 0.48 1.60 2.11 8.10 0.59Sensitivity Analysis

7

- 6 www.enernoc.com Figure 7

- 3 RAP Program Administrator Costs

– Comparison of Sensitivity Case s

Figure 7

- 4 MAP Program Administrator Costs

– Comparison of Sensitivity Cases - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000

2016 2017 2018Total Program Administrator Costs (000$) Reference Case 30% lower NTG 30% higher NTG

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000

2016 2017 2018Total Program Administrator Costs (000$) Reference Case 30% lower NTG 30% higher NTGEnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting A

- 1 

### APPENDIX A



## MARKET PROFILES

Market profiles describe electricity use by sector, segment, end use and technology in the base year of the study (2011). The market profiles are given for average buildings and new vintages.
As explained in Chapter 3 of Volume 3, a market profile include s the following elements:

• Market size is a representation of the number of customers in the segment. For the residential sector, it is number of households. In the commercial sector, it is floor space measured in square feet. For the industrial sector, it is number of employees.

• Saturations define the fraction of buildings with the specific technologies. (e.g., homes with electric space heating)

• UEC (unit energy consumption) or EUI (energy

- use index) describes the amount of energy consumed in the base yea r by a specific technology in buildings that have the technology. We use UECs expressed in kWh/household for the residential sector, and EUIs expressed in kWh/square foot or kWh/employee for the commercial and industrial sectors respectively.

• Intensity for the residential sector represents the average energy use for the technology across all households in the base year. It is computed as the product of the saturation and the UEC and is defined as kWh/household for electricity. For the commercial and industr ial sectors, intensity, computed as the product of the saturation and the EUI, represents the average use for the technology across all floor space or all employees in the base year.

• Usage is the annual energy use by a technology/end use in the segment. It is the product of the market size and intensity and is quantified in GWh for electricity.

The file “ 1434_Appendix_A_Tables

- Market_Profiles.xlsx ” presents the following market profiles:

• Residential market profiles by segment

• Commercial market profiles by building type

• Industrial market profil e

1434_Appendix_A_T ables-Market_ProfilesEnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting B

- 1 

### APPENDIX B



## RESIDENTIAL ENERGY E FFICIENCY EQUIPMENT AND MEASURE DATA

This appendix presents detailed information for all energy

- efficiency measures ( equipment and

non

- equipment measures per the LoadMAP taxonomy) that were evaluated as part of this study. Several sets of tables are provided.

Measure Descriptions
Table B

- 1 and Table B

- 2 provide brief descriptions for all equipment and non

- equipment measures that were assessed for potential.

Equipment Measure Data
The tables in the file “ 1434_Appendix_B_Tables

- Residential_Equ ipment.xlsx ” l ist the detailed unit

- level data for the equipment measures for each of the housing type segments

— Single Family, Multi Family

, and for existing and new construction, respectively. Savings are in annual kWh per household, and incremental cos ts are in $/household ($/HH), unless noted otherwise. The BC ratio shown in the tables are for the first year of the potential analysis ( 2011 ), although the B/C ratio is calculated within LoadMAP for each year of the forecast. The B/C ratio in the tables i s 1.00 if the measure represents the baseline technology , and zero if the technology is not available in 2013. The final data item in these tables is the levelized cost of conserved energy, which is defined as the cost of the measure divided by the cumulat ive amount of energy savings accrued over the measure’s lifetime ($/kWh).

1434_Appendix_B_T ables-Residential_Equ

Non

- Equipment Measure Data
The tables in the file “ 1434_Appendix_B_Tables

- Residential_Non

- Equipment.xlsx ” list the detailed unit

- level data for the non

- equipment energy efficiency measures for each of the housing type segments and for existing and new construction, respectively. Because these measures can produce energy

- use savings for multiple end

- use loads ( e.g., insulation affects heating and cooling energy use) savings are expressed as a net percentage of all the relevant, combined end

use loads. Base saturation indicates the percentage of homes in which the measure is already installed. Applicability is a factor that account s for whether the measure can be applied to the building. Cost is expressed in $/household. The detailed measure

- level tables present the results of the benefit/cost (B/C) analysis for the first year of the analysis (2011) although the B /C ratio is calculated within LoadMAP for each year of the forecast. These tables also contain the levelized cost of conserved energy, which is defined as the cost of the measure divided by the cumulative amount of energy savings accrued over the measure’s lifetime. This metric is given in terms of $/kWh.

1434_Appendix_B_T ables-Residential_NonResidential Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

B

- 2 www. enernoc .com Table B

- 1 Residential Energy Efficiency Equipment Measure Descriptions

End Use Technology Measure Description

Cooling Central AC Central air conditioners consist of a refrigeration system using a direct expansion cycle. Equipment includes a compressor, an air

- cooled condenser (located outdoors), an expansion valve, and an evaporator coil. A supply fan near the ev aporator coil distributes supply air through air ducts to the building. Cooling efficiencies vary based on materials used, equipment size, condenser type, and system configuration. CACs may be unitary (all components housed in a factory

- built assembly) or split system (an outdoor condenser section and an indoor evaporator section connected by refrigerant lines and with the compressor either indoors or outdoors). Energy efficiency is rated according to the size of the unit using the Seasonal Energy Efficienc y Rating (SEER). Ductless systems with Variable Refrigerant Flow further improve the operating efficiency.

Cooling Room AC Room air conditioners are designed to cool a single room or space. They incorporate a complete air

- cooled refrigeration and air

- handling system in an individual package. Room air conditioners come in several forms, including window, split

- type, and package d terminal units. Energy efficiency is rated according to the size of the unit using the Energy Efficiency Rating (EER).

Cooling / Heating Air

- Source Heat Pump A central heat pump consists of components similar to a CAC system, but is usually designed to function both as a heat pump and an air conditioner. It consists of a refrigeration system using a direct expansion (DX) cycle. Equipment includes a compressor, an air

- cooled condenser (located outdoors), an expansion valve, and an evaporator coil (locate d in the supply air duct near the supply fan) and a reversing valve to change the DX cycle from cooling to heating when required. The cooling and heating efficiencies vary based on the materials used, equipment size, condenser type, and system configuratio n. Heat pumps may be unitary (all components housed in a factory

- built assembly) or a split system (an outdoor condenser section and an indoor evaporator section connected by refrigerant lines, with either outdoors or indoors. A high

- efficiency option
for a ductless mini

- split system is also analyzed.

Cooling / Heating Geothermal Heat Pump Geothermal heat pumps are similar to air

- source heat pumps, but use the ground or groundwater instead of outside air to provide a heat source/sink. A geothermal heat pum p system generally consists of three major subsystems or parts: a geothermal heat pump to move heat between the building and the fluid in the earth connection, an earth connection for transferring heat between the fluid and the earth, and a distribution

su bsystem for delivering heating or cooling to the building. The system may also have a desuperheater to supplement the building's water heater, or a
full

- demand water heater to meet all of the building's hot water needs.

Heating Electric Room Heat Resisti ve heating elements are used to convert electricity directly to heat. Conductive fins surrounding the element or another mechanism is used to deliver the heat directly to the surrounding room or area. These are typically either baseboard or wall

- mounted units.

Heating Furnace Furnaces heat air and distribute the heated air through the building using ducts. Efficiency improvements can include: exhaust fan controls, electronic ignition (no pilot light), compact size and lighter weight to reduce cycling lo sses, smaller

- diameter flue pipe, and sealed combustion. Very high efficiency units, or condensing units, condense the water vaporResidential Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting B

- 3 End Use Technology Measure Description produced in the combustion process and also use the heat from this
condensation.

Water Heating Water Heater For electric h ot water heating, the most common type is a storage heater, which incorporates an electric heating element, storage tank, outer jacket, insulation, and controls in a single unit. Efficient units are characterized by a high recovery or thermal efficiency an d low standby losses (the ratio of heat lost per hour to the content of the stored water). A further efficiency gain is available through a heat pump water heater (HPWH), which uses a

vapor

- compression thermodynamic cycle similar to that found in an air

co nditioner or refrigerator to extract heat from an available source (e.g., air) and reject that heat to a higher temperature sink, in this case, the
water in the water heater. Electric instantaneous water heaters are available, but are excluded from this st udy due to potentially high
instantaneous demand concerns. For natural gas hot water heating, the most common type is a storage heater, which incorporates a burner, storage tank, outer jacket, insulation, and controls in a single unit. Efficient units are characterized by a high recovery or thermal efficiency and low standby losses (the ratio of heat lost per hour to the content of the stored water). A further efficiency gain is available in condensing units, which condense the water vapor produced in
the c ombustion process and also use the heat from this condensation.

Interior Lighting Screw

- in Infrared halogen lamps are designed to be a replacement for standards incandescent lamps. Also referred to as advanced incandescent lamps, these products meet the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) lighting standards and are phased in as the baseline technology screw

- in lamp technology to reflect the timeline over which the EISA lighting standards take effect. Compact fluorescent lamps are designed to be a replacement for standard incandescent lamps and use about 25% of the energy used by standard incandescent lamps to produce the same lumen output. They can use either electronic or magnetic ballasts. Integral compact fluorescent lamps have the ballast integ rated into the base of the lamp and have a standard screw

- in base that permits installation into existing incandescent fixtures. Light

- emitting diode (LED) lighting has seen recent penetration in specific applications such as traffic lights and exit signs. With the potential for extremely high efficiency, LEDs show promise to provide general

- use lighting for interior spaces. Current models commercially available have efficacies comparable to CFLs. However, theoretical efficiencies are significantly higher. LED models under development are expected to provide improved efficacies.

Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent T8 fluorescent lamps are smaller in diameter than standard T12 lamps, resulting in greater light output per watt. T8 lamps also operate at a low er current and wattage, which increases the efficiency of the ballast but requires the lamps to be compatible with the ballast. Fluorescent lamp fixtures can include a reflector that increases the light output from the fixture, and thus make it possible to use a fewer number of lamps in each fixture. T5 lamps further increase efficiency by reducing the lamp diameter to 5/8”. Light

- emitting diode (LED) lighting has seen recent penetration in specific applications such as traffic lights and exit signs. With t he potential for extremely high efficiency, LEDs show promise to provide general

- use lighting for interior spaces. Current models commercially available have efficacies comparable to CFLs. However, theoretical efficiencies are significantly higher. LED mod els under development are expected toResidential Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

B

- 4 www. enernoc .com End Use Technology Measure Description provide improved efficacies.

Interior Lighting Specialty Lighting Bulbs that the DOE does not consider conventional and are not covered by federal efficiency standards. These include: appliance bulbs, heavy

- duty
bul bs, dimmable bulbs, three

- way bulbs, G shape (globe) lamps, candelabra base, and others.

Exterior Lighting Screw

- in Infrared halogen lamps are designed to be a replacement for standards incandescent lamps. Also referred to as advanced incandescent lamps, these products meet the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) lighting standards and are phased in as the baseline technology screw

- in lamp technology to reflect the timeline over which the EISA lighting standards take effect. Compact fluorescent lam ps are designed to be a replacement for standard incandescent lamps and use about 25% of the energy used by standard incandescent lamps to produce the same lumen output. They can use either electronic or magnetic ballasts. Integral compact fluorescent lamp s have the ballast integrated into the base of the lamp and have a standard screw

- in base that permits installation into existing incandescent fixtures. Light

- emitting diode (LED) lighting has seen recent penetration in specific applications such as traffi c lights and exit signs. With the potential for extremely high efficiency, LEDs show promise to provide general

- use lighting for interior spaces. Current models commercially available have efficacies comparable to CFLs. However,
theoretical efficiencies ar e significantly higher. LED models under development are expected to provide improved efficacies.

Appliances Refrigerator Energy

- efficient refrigerators/freezers incorporate features such as improved cabinet insulation, more efficient compressors and evap orator fans, defrost controls, mullion heaters, oversized condenser coils, and improved door seals. Further efficiency increases can be obtained by reducing the volume of refrigerated space, or adding multiple compartments to reduce losses from opening do ors.

Appliances Second Refrigerator Energy

- efficient refrigerators/freezers incorporate features such as improved cabinet insulation, more efficient compressors and evaporator fans, defrost controls, mullion heaters, oversized condenser coils, and improve d door seals. Further efficiency increases can be obtained by reducing the volume of refrigerated space, or adding multiple compartments to reduce losses from opening doors.

Appliances Freezer Energy

- efficient refrigerators/freezers incorporate features such as improved cabinet insulation, more efficient compressors and evaporator fans, defrost controls, mullion heaters, oversized condenser coils, and improved door seals. Further efficiency increases can be obtained by reducing the volume of refrigerated space, or adding multiple compartments to reduce losses from opening doors.

Appliances Clothes Washer High efficiency clothes washers use superior designs that require less
water. Sensors match the hot water needs to the size and soil level of the load, preventing energy waste. Further energy and water savings can be achieved through advanced technologies such as inverter

- drive or
combination washer

- dryer units. MEF is the official energy efficiency metric used to compare relative efficiencies of differe nt clothes washers. MEF considers the energy used to run the washer, heat the water, and run the dryer. The higher the MEF, the more efficient the clothes washer.

Appliances Clothes Dryer An energy

- efficient clothes dryer has a moisture

- sensing device toR esidential Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting B

- 5 End Use Technology Measure Description terminate the drying cycle rather than using a timer and an energy

efficient motor is used for spinning the dryer tub. Application of a heat pump cycle for extracting the moisture from clothes leads to additional energy savings.

Appliances Dishwasher High efficiency dishwashers save by using both improved technology for the primary wash cycle, and by using less hot water. Construction includes more effective washing action, energy

- efficient motors, and other advanced technology such as sensors that determi ne the length of the wash cycle and the temperature of the water necessary to clean the dishes.

Appliances Stove These products have additional insulation in the oven compartment and tighter

- fitting oven door gaskets and hinges to save energy. Convention al ovens must first heat up about 35 pounds of steel and a large amount of air before they heat up the food. Higher efficiency options include convection ovens, halogen burners, and induction burners.

Appliances Microwave Appliance that heats food with microwave radiation. No high efficiency option is modeled.

Electronics Personal Computers Improved power management can significantly reduce the annual energy consumption of PCs and monitors in both standby and normal operation.

ENERGY STAR and Climate S avers labeled products provide increasing level of energy efficiency.

Electronics Monitor High efficiency electronics use efficient components and employ sleep/power save modes.

Electronics Laptops High efficiency electronics use efficient components and employ sleep/power save modes.

Electronics Printer/Fax/Copier High efficiency electronics use efficient components and employ sleep/power save modes.

Electronics TVs In the average home, electronic products consumed significant energy, even when they are turn off, to maintain features like clocks, remote control, and channel/station memory. ENERGY STAR labeled consumer electronics can drastically reduce consumption dur ing standby mode, in addition to saving energy through advanced power management during
normal use.

Electronics Devices and Gadgets High efficiency electronics can use efficient components and employ sleep/power save modes.

Electronics Set

- top Boxes/DVR High efficiency electronics can use efficient components and employ sleep/power save modes.

Miscellaneous Pool Heater Efficient pool heaters can make use of heat pump technology to achieve significantly higher coefficients of performance in the COP=5.0 r ange. Gas pool heaters have a burner to heat water in a loop. Efficiency improvements can include: exhaust fan controls, electronic ignition (no pilot light), compact size and lighter weight to reduce cycling losses, and
sealed combustion. Very high effic iency units, or condensing units, condense the water vapor produced in the combustion process and also
use the heat from this condensation.

Miscellaneous Pool Pump High

- efficiency motors and two

- speed pumps provide improved energy efficiency for this loa d.Residential Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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- 6 www. enernoc .com End Use Technology Measure Description

Miscellaneous Furnace Fan In homes heated by a furnace, there is still substantial energy use by the fan responsible for moving the hot air throughout the ductwork. Application of an Electronically Commutating Motor (ECM) ensures that motor speed matches the heating requirements of the system and saves energy when compared to a continuously operating standard motor.

Miscellaneous Well Pump Existing well pumps can achieve efficiency improvements by using optimized system components and more efficie nt motors. Efficiencies: Baseline 40% EF, High Efficiency 60% EF

Miscellaneous Hot Tub/Spa High

- efficiency motors and two

- speed pumps provide improved energy efficiency for this load.

Miscellaneous Air Purifier/Cleaner An air purifier (cleaner) meeting the efficiency specifications of ENERGY
STAR is purchased and installed in place of a model meeting the current federal standard.

Miscellaneous Dehumidifier A dehumidifier meeting the minimum qualifying efficiency standard established by the current ENERGY STAR (Version 2.1 or 3.0) is purchased and installed in a residential setting in place of a unit that meets the minimum federal standard efficiency.

Miscel laneous Miscellaneous Improvement of miscellaneous electricity uses.Residential Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting B

- 7 Table B

- 2 Residential Energy Efficiency Non

- Equipment Measure Descriptions

End Use Measure Description

HVAC (All) Insulation

- Ceiling Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative transfer modes. Thus, thermal insulation above ceilings can conserve energy by reduci ng the heat loss or gain into attics and/or through roofs. The type of building construction defines insulating possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose

- fill (blown) cellulose, loose

- fill (blown) fiberglass, and rigid polystyrene.

Cooling Insulation

- Ducting Air distribution ducts can be insulated to reduce heating or cooling losses. Best results can be achieved by covering the entire surface area with insulation. Several types of ducts and duct insulation are available, including flexible duct,

pre

- insulated duct, duct board, duct wrap, tacked, or glued rigid insulation, and waterproof hard shell materials for exterior ducts. This analysis assumes that installing duct insulation can reduce the temperature drop/gain in ducts by
50%

.

HVAC (All) Insulation

- Foundation Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative transfer modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by redu cing heat loss or gain from a building. The type of building construction defines insulating possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose

- fill (blown) cellulose, loose

- fill (blown) fiberglass, and rigid polystyrene. Foundation insulation is modeled for new construction / major retrofits only.

HVAC (All) Insulation

- Infiltration Control Lowering the air infiltration rate by caulking small leaks and weather

- stripping around window frames, doorframes, power outlets, plumbing, and wall corners can provide significant energy savings. Weather

- stripping doors and windows will create a tight sea l and further reduce air infiltration.

HVAC (All) Insulation

- Radiant
Barrier Radiant barriers are materials installed to reduce the heat gain in buildings. Radiant barriers are made from materials that are highly reflective and have low emissivity like aluminum. The closer the emissivity is to 0 the better they will perform. Radiant barriers can be placed above the insulation or on the roof rafters.

HVAC (All) Insulation

- Wall Cavity Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative transfer modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by reducing heat loss or gain from a building. The type of building construction defines insulating possibilit ies. Typical insulating materials include: loose

- fill (blown) cellulose, loose

- fill (blown) fiberglass, and rigid polystyrene. Wall insulation is modeled for new construction / major retrofits only.

HVAC (All) Insulation

- Wall Sheathing Thermal insulati on is material or combinations of materials that are used to inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative transfer modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by reducing heat loss or gain from a building. The type of bu ilding construction defines insulating possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose

- fill (blown) cellulose, loose

- fill (blown) fiberglass, and rigid polystyrene. Wall sheathing is modeled for new construction / major retrofits only.

Cooling Ducting

- Repair and Sealing Leakage in unsealed ducts varies considerably because of the differences in fabricating machinery used, the methods for assembly, installation workmanship, and age of the ductwork. Air leaks from the system to the outdoors re sult in a direct loss proportional to the amount of leakage and the difference in enthalpy between the outdoor air and the conditioned air. To seal ducts, a wide variety of sealing methods and products exist. Each has a relatively short shelf life, and n o documented research has identified the aging characteristics of sealant applications.

HVAC (All) Windows

- High Efficiency/ENERGY
STAR High

- efficiency windows, such as those labeled under the ENERGY STAR Program, are designed to reduce energy use and increase occupant comfort. High

- efficiency windows reduce the amount of heat transfer through theResidential Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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- 8 www. enernoc .com End Use Measure Description
glazing surface. For example, some windows have a low

- E coating, a thin film of metallic oxide coating on the glass surface that allows passage of short

- wave solar energy through glass and prevents long

- wave energy from escaping. Another example is double

- pane glass that reduces conductive and convective heat transfer. Some double

- pane windows are gas

- filled (usually argon) to further increase the insulating properties of the window.

HVAC (All) Windows

- Install Reflective Film Reflective films applied to the window interior help reduce solar gain into the space and thus lower cooling energy use.

HVAC (All) Doors

- Storm and Thermal Like other components of the shell, doors are subject to several types of heat loss: conduction, infiltration, and radiant losses. Similar to a storm window, a storm door creates an insulating air space between the storm and primary doors. A tight fitting storm door can also help reduce air leakage or infiltration. Thermal doors have exceptional thermal insulation properties and also are provided with weather

- stripping on the doorframe to reduce air leakage.

HVAC (All) Roofs

- High Reflectivity The color and material of a buildin g structure surface will determine the amount of solar radiation absorbed by that surface and subsequently transferred into a building. This is called solar absorptance. By using a living roof or a roofing material with a light color (and a lower solar abs orptance), the roof will absorb less solar radiation and consequently reduce the cooling load. Living roofs also reduce stormwater runoff.

HVAC (All) Attic Fan

- Installation Attic fans can reduce the need for AC by reducing heat transfer from the attic through the ceiling of the house. A well

- ventilated attic can be several degrees cooler than a comparable, unventilated attic. An option for an attic fan equipped with a small solar photovoltaic generator is also modeled.

HVAC (All) Attic Fan

- Photovolta ic

- Installation Attic fans can reduce the need for AC by reducing heat transfer from the attic through the ceiling of the house. A well

- ventilated attic can be several degrees cooler than a comparable, unventilated attic. An option for an attic fan equip ped with a small solar photovoltaic generator is also modeled.

HVAC (All) Whole

- House Fan

- Installation Whole

- house fans can reduce the need for AC on moderate

- weather days or on cool evenings. The fan facilitates a quick air change throughout the entire house. Several windows must be open to achieve the best results. The fan is mounted on the top floor of the house, usually in a hallway ceiling.

HVAC (All) Ceiling Fan

- Installation Ceiling fans can reduce the need for air conditioning. However, the hou se occupants must also select a ceiling fan with a high

- efficiency motor and either shutoff the AC system or setup the thermostat temperature of the air conditioning system to realize the potential energy savings. Some ceiling fans also come with lamps. In this analysis, it is assumed that there are no lamps, and installing a ceiling fan will allow occupants to increase the thermostat cooling setpoint up by 2°F.

HVAC (All) Thermostat

- Clock/Programmable A programmable thermostat can be added to most heati ng/cooling systems. They are typically used during winter to lower temperatures at night and in summer to increase temperatures during the afternoon. The energy savings from this type of thermostat are identical to those of a "setback" strategy with stand ard thermostats, but the convenience of a programmable thermostat makes it a much more attractive option. In this analysis, the baseline is assumed to have no thermostat setback.

HVAC (All) Home Energy Management System A centralized home energy manageme nt system can be used to control and schedule cooling, space heating, lighting, and possibly appliances as well. Some designs also allow the homeowner to remotely control loads via the Internet.

Cooling Central AC

- Early Replacement CAC systems currently on the market are significantly more efficient that older units, due to technology improvement and stricter appliance standards. This measure incents homeowners to replace an aging but still working unit with a new, higher

- efficiency one.

Cooling Central AC

- Maintenance and
Tune

- Up An air conditioner's filters, coils, and fins require regular cleaning and maintenance for the unit to function effectively and efficiently throughout its life. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline inResidential Energy Ef ficiency Equipment and Measure Data

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting B

- 9 End Use Measure Description

per formance, requiring the AC unit to use more energy for the same cooling load.

Cooling / Heating Central Heat Pump

- Maintenance A heat pump's filters, coils, and fins require regular cleaning and maintenance for the unit to function effectively and effic iently throughout its life. Neglecting necessary maintenance ensures a steady decline in performance while energy use steadily increases.

Cooling Room AC

- Removal of Second Unit Homeowners may have a second room AC unit that is extremely inefficient. Th is measure incents homeowners to recycle the second unit and thus also eliminates associated electricity use.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Drainwater Heat Recovery Drainwater Heat Recovery is a system in which drain water is used to preheat cold water ent ering the water heater. While these systems themselves are relatively inexpensive, upgrading an existing system could be unreasonable because of demolition costs. Thus they are modeled for new vintage only.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Faucet Aerators Wat er faucet aerators are threaded screens that attach to existing faucets. They reduce the volume of water coming out of faucets while introducing air into the water stream. This measure provides energy saving by reducing hot water use, as well as water cons ervation for both hot and cold water.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Low

Flow Showerheads Similar to faucet aerators, low

- flow showerheads reduce the consumption of hot water, which in turn decreases water heating energy use.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Pipe Insulation Insulating hot water pipes decreases energy losses from piping that distributes hot water throughout the building. It also results in quicker delivery of hot water and may allow the lowering of the hot water set point, which saves

energy. The most common insulation materials for this purpose are polyethylene and neoprene.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Timer These measures use either a programmable thermostat or a timer to adjust the water heater setpoint at times of low usage, typic ally when a home is unoccupied.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Desuperheater A desuperheater can be added to an existing geothermal heat pump system (typically installed with the primary function of space heating and cooling) in order to draw off a portion of the geothermal heat for water heating purposes. The system can either supplement the building's water heater, or be a full

demand water heater that meets all of the building's hot water needs.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Solar System Solar water hea ting systems can be used in residential buildings that have an appropriate near

- south

- facing roof or nearby unshaded grounds for installing a collector. Although system types vary, in general these systems use a solar absorber surface within a solar collec tor or an actual storage tank. Either a heat

- transfer fluid or the actual potable water flows through tubes attached to the absorber and transfers heat from it. (Systems with a separate heat

transfer

- fluid loop include a heat exchanger that then heats the potable water.) The heated water is stored in a separate preheat tank or a conventional water heater tank. If additional heat is needed, it is provided by a conventional

water

- heating system.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting

- Occupancy Sensors Occupa ncy sensors turn lights off when a space is unoccupied. They are appropriate for areas with intermittent use, such as bathrooms or storage

areas.

Exterior Lighting Exterior Lighting

- Photosensor Control Photosensor controls turn exterior lighting on or off based on ambient lighting levels. Compared with manual operation, this can reduce the operation of exterior lighting during daylight hours.

Exterior Lighting Exterior Lighting

- Photovoltaic Installat ion Solar photovoltaic generation may be used to power exterior lighting and thus eliminate all or part of the electrical energy use.

Exterior Lighting Exterior Lighting

- Timeclock Installation Lighting timers turn exterior lighting on or off based on a preset schedule. Compared with manual operation, this can reduce the operation of exterior lighting during daylight hours.
Appliances Refrigerator

- Early Refrigerators/freezers currently on the market are significantly more efficientResidential Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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Replacement that ol der units, due to technology improvement and stricter appliance standards. This measure incents homeowners to replace an aging but still working unit with a new, higher

- efficiency one.

Appliances Refrigerator

- Maintenance This measure includes repairing and recharging refrigerant lines, cleaning condenser coils, and replacing the oil. This reduces energy consumption by improving the rate at which the system can compress and cool refrigerant as it moves through the system.

Appliances Refrigerator

- Remove Second Unit Homeowners may have a second refrigerator or freezer that is not used to full capacity and that, because of its age, is extremely inefficient. This measure incents homeowners to recycle the second unit and thus also eliminates associated elect ricity use.

Appliances Freezer

- Remove Second Unit Homeowners may have a second refrigerator or freezer that is not used to full capacity and that, because of its age, is extremely inefficient. This measure incents homeowners to recycle the second unit a nd thus also eliminates associated electricity use.

Appliances Freezer

- Early Replacement Refrigerators/freezers currently on the market are significantly more efficient that older units, due to technology improvement and stricter appliance standards. Th is measure incents homeowners to replace an aging but still working unit with a new, higher

- efficiency one.

Appliances Freezer

- Maintenance This measure includes repairing and recharging refrigerant lines, cleaning condenser coils, and replacing the oil. This reduces energy consumption by improving the rate at which the system can compress and cool refrigerant as it moves through the system.

Electronics Electronics

- Smart Power Strips Representing a growing portion of home electricity consumption, plug

- in electronics such as set

- top boxes, DVD players, gaming systems, digital video recorders, and even battery chargers for mobile phones and laptop computers are often designed to supply a set voltage. When the units are not in use, this voltage could be dr opped significantly (~1 W) and thereby generate a significant energy savings, assumed for this analysis to be between 4

- 5% on average. These savings are in excess of the measures already discussed for computers and televisions.

Miscellaneous Pool Pump

- Timer A pool pump timer allows the pump to turn off automatically, eliminating the wasted energy associated with unnecessary pumping.

Miscellaneous Pool Heater

- Solar System This measure replaces a conventional pool heater with a solar system.

HVAC (All) ENERGY STAR Home Design ENERGY STAR home design uses an integrated approach to the design of new buildings to account for the interaction of building systems. Designs may specify the building orientation, building shell, proper sizing of equipment an d systems, and controls strategies with the goal of optimizing building energy efficiency and comfort. Options that may be evaluated and incorporated include passive solar strategies, increased thermal mass, natural ventilation, energy recovery ventilation , daylighting strategies, and shading strategies; but with specific requirements that adhere to the ENERGY STAR standard and measurement system. This measure is modeled for new vintage only.

Miscellaneous Information Based Energy Efficiency Programs This measure will include the impacts from behavioral information

- based programs such as Opower, where the evaluations have isolated valid behavioral effects from the technology effects of all the other measures listed here.

Miscellaneous Pool/Spa Cover A poo l or spa cover (also referred to as a solar cover or solar blanket) keeps the water in the pool warmer by absorbing heat from the sun and transferring the heat to the pool water, reducing the energy used by the pool heater.EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting C

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### APPENDIX C



## COMMERCIAL ENERGY EF FICIENCY EQUIPMENT A ND MEASURE DATA

This appendix present s detailed information for all commercial energy

- efficiency measures ( equipment and non

- equipment measures per the LoadMAP taxonomy ) that were evaluated in this study.

Measure Descriptions
Table C

- 1 and Table C

- 2 provide brief descriptions for all equipment and non

- equipment measures that were asses sed for potential.

Equipment Measure Data
The tables in the file “ 1434_Appendix_C_Tables

- Commercial_Equipment.xlsx ” list the detailed unit

- level data (including economic screen results) for commercial equipment measures in existing and new buildings. Savin gs are in annual kWh per square foot , and incremental costs are in $/ square foot ($/sq.ft. ), unless noted otherwise. The BC ratio shown in the tables are for the first year of the potential analysis ( 2011 ), although the B/C ratio is calculated within LoadM AP for each year of the forecast. The B/C ratio in the tables is 1.00 if the measure represents the baseline technology , and zero if the technology is not available in 2013. The final data item in these tables is the levelized cost of conserved energy, whi ch is defined as the cost of the measure divided by the cumulative amount of energy savings accrued over the measure’s lifetime ($/kWh)

.

1434_Appendix_C_T ables-Commercial_Equ

Non

- Equipment Measure Data
The tables in the file “ 1434_Appendix_C_Tables

- Commercial_Non

- Equipment.xlsx ” list the detailed unit

- level data (including economic screen results) for commercial non

- equipment measures in existing and new construction. Because these measures can produce energy

- use savings for mu ltiple end

- use loads (e.g., insulation affects heating and cooling energy use) savings are expressed as a net percentage of all the relevant, combined end

- use loads. Base saturation indicates the percentage of square footage in which the measure is already installed. Applicability is a factor that account s for whether the measure can be applied to the building. Cost is expressed in $/ building or $/square foot, as indicated in the “unit” column . The detailed

measure

- level tables present the results of the be nefit/cost (B/C) analysis for the first year of the analysis (2011) although the B/C ratio is calculated within LoadMAP for each year of the forecast. These tables also contain the levelized cost of conserved energy, which is defined as the cost of the mea sure divided by the cumulative amount of energy savings accrued over the measure’s lifetime. This metric is given in terms of $/kWh.

1434_Appendix_C_T ables-Commercial_NonCommercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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- 1 Commercial Energy Efficiency Equipment Measure Descriptions

End Use Technology Measure Description

Cooling Air

- Cooled Chiller A central chiller plant creates chilled water for distribution throughout the facility. Because of the wide variety of system types and sizes, savings and cost values for efficiency improvements represent an average over screw, reciprocating, and centrifug al technologies. Under this simplified approach, each central system is characterized by an aggregate efficiency value (inclusive of chiller, pumps, and motors), in kW/ton with a further efficiency upgrade through the application of variable refrigerant fl ow technology.

Cooling Water

- Cooled Chiller A central chiller plant creates chilled water for distribution throughout the facility. Water source chillers include heat rejection via a condenser loop and cooling tower. Because of the wide variety of system types and sizes, savings and cost values for efficiency improvements represent an average over screw, reciprocating, and centrifugal technologies. Under this simplified approach, each central system is characterized by an aggregate efficiency value (inclusive of chiller, pumps, motors, and condenser loop equipment), in kW/ton with a further efficiency upgrade through the application of variable refrigerant flow technology.

Cooling R oof Top AC Packaged cooling systems, such as rooftop units (RTUs), are simple to install and maintain, and are commonly used in small and medium

- sized commercial buildings. Applications range from a single supply system with air intake filters, supply fan, and cooling coil, or can become more complex with the addition of a return air duct, return air fan, and various cont rols to optimize performance. For packaged RTUs, varying Energy Efficiency Ratios (EER) are modeled, as well as a ductless mini

- split system.

Cooling / Heating PTAC/PTHP This measure includes efficiency upgrades to other small cooling systems in
commercia l buildings including room AC units, packaged terminal air conditioning (PTAC) units, and packaged terminal heat pumps (PTHP). Cooling / Heating Air

- Source Heat Pump For heat pumps, units with increasing EER and COP levels are evaluated, as well as a duct less mini

- split system. Cooling / Heating Geothermal Heat Pump For heat pumps, units with increasing EER and COP levels are evaluated.

Heating Electric Furnace Resistive heating elements are used to convert electricity directly to heat. The heat is then delivered by a supply fan and duct system to the regions that require heating.

Heating Electric Room Heat Resistive heating elements are used to convert electricity directly to heat. Conductive fins surrounding the element or another mechanism is us ed to deliver the heat directly to the surrounding room or area. These are typically either baseboard or wall

- mounted units.

Ventilation Ventilation A variable air volume ventilation system modulates the air flow rate as needed based on the interior cond itions of the building to reduce fan load, improve dehumidification, and reduce energy usage.

Water Heating Water Heater Efficient electric water heaters are characterized by a high recovery or thermal efficiency (percentage of delivered electric energy w hich is transferred to the water) and low standby losses (the ratio of heat lost per hour to the content of the stored water). Included in the savings associated with high

- efficiency electric water heaters are timers that allow temperature setpoints to cha nge with hot water demand patterns. For example, the heating element could be shut off throughout the night, increasing the overall energy factor of the unit. In addition, tank and pipe insulation reduces standby losses and therefore reduces the demands on the water heater. This analysis considers conventional electric water heaters and heat pump water heaters. For natural gas hot water heating, the most common type is a storage heater, which incorporates a burner, storage tank, outer jacket, insulation, an d controls in a single unit. Efficient units are characterized by a high recovery or thermal efficiency and low standby losses (the ratio of heat lost per hour to the content of the stored water). A further efficiency gain is available in condensingCommercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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units, which condense the water vapor produced in the combustion process and also use the heat from this condensation.

Interior Lighting Screw

- in This measure evaluates higher

- efficiency alternatives for screw

- in interior lamps including halogen, CFL, and LED.

Interior Lighting High

- Bay Fixtures With the exception of screw

- in lighting, commercial lighting efficiency changes typically require more than the simple purchase and installation of an alternative lamp Restrictions regarding ballasts, fixtures, and cir cuitry limit the potential for direct substitution of one lamp type for another. Also, during the buildout for a leased office space, management could decide to replace all lamps, ballasts, and fixtures with different configurations. This type of decision

making is modeled on a stock turnover basis because of the time between opportunities for upgrades. For High

- Bay fixtures, alternatives include mercury vapor, metal halides, T5 fluorescent high output, and high

- pressure sodium.

Interior Lighting Linear Fl uorescent With the exception of screw

- in lighting, commercial lighting efficiency changes typically require more than the simple purchase and installation of an alternative lamp restriction regarding ballasts, fixtures, and circuitry limit the potential fo r direct substitution of one lamp type for another. Also, during the buildout for a leased office space, management could decide to replace all lamps, ballasts, and fixtures with different configurations. This type of decision

making is modeled on a stock turnover basis because of the time between opportunities for upgrades. For linear fluorescent fixtures, alternatives include T12, T8, Super T8, T5, and LED.

Exterior Lighting Screw

- in This measure evaluates higher

- efficiency alternatives for screw

- in inte rior lamps including halogen, CFL, and LED.

Exterior Lighting HID Alternatives modeled include metal halides, T8 and T5 high output, high pressure sodium, and LEDs

Exterior Lighting Linear Fluorescent For linear fluorescent fixtures, alternatives include T12, T8, Super T8, T5, and
LED.

Refrigeration Walk

- in Refrigerator These refrigerators can be designed to perform at higher efficiency through a combination of compressor equipment upgrades, default temperature settings, and defrost patterns. Standard refrigeration compressors typically operate at approximately 65% efficiency. High

- efficiency models are available that can improve compressor efficiency by 15%. Analysis assumes unit with: 140 square feet, Cooling capacity of 26,230 BTU/hr.

Refrigeration Reach

- in Refrigerator A significant amount of energy in the commercial sector can be attributed to "reach

- in" units. These stand

- alone appliances can range from a residential

style refrigerator/freezer unit in an office kitchen or the breakroom of a retai l store, to the larger reach

- in units in foodservice applications. As in the case of residential units, these refrigerators can be designed to perform at higher efficiency through a combination of compressor equipment upgrades, default temperature settings , and defrost patterns. Analysis assumes unit with: 48 cubic feet, Cooling capacity of 3000 BTU/hr.

Refrigeration Glass Door Display, Open Display Case These refrigerators can be designed to perform at higher efficiency through a combination of compresso r equipment upgrades, default temperature settings, and defrost patterns. Standard refrigeration compressors typically operate at approximately 65% efficiency. High

- efficiency models are available that can improve compressor efficiency by 15%. Analysis a ssumes unit with: Cooling capacity of 20,000 BTU/hr

Refrigeration Icemaker By optimizing the timing of ice production and the type of output to the specific application, icemakers are assumed to deliver electricity savings.

Refrigeration Vending Machine High

- efficiency vending machines incorporate more efficient compressors and lighting.

Food Preparation Ovens, Fryers, Hot Food Containers, Dishwashers This set of measures includes high

- efficiency fryers, ovens, dishwashers, and hot food containers. Less common equipment, such as broilers and steamers, and assumed to be modeled with the other more common equipment types.Commercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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Office Equipment Desktop Comput er, Laptop, Monitors ENERGY STAR labeled computers automatically power down to 15 watts or less when not in use and may actually last longer than conventional products because they spend a large portion of time in a low

- power sleep mode.
ENERGY STAR label ed computers also generate less heat than conventional models.

Office Equipment Server In addition to the "sleep" mode a reductions, servers have additional energy

saving opportunities through "virtualization" and other architecture solutions that involve optimal matching of computation tasks to hardware requirements

Office Equipment Printer/Copier/Fax ENERGY STAR labeled office equipment saves energy by powering down and "going to sleep" when not in use. ENERGY STAR labeled copiers are equipped with a f eature that allows them to automatically turn off after a period of inactivity.

Office Equipment POS Terminal Point

- of

- sale terminals in retail and supermarket facilities are always on. Efficient models incorporate a high

- efficiency power supply to reduce energy

use.

Miscellaneous Non

- HVAC Motors Includes motors for a variety of non

- HVAC uses including vertical transportation. Premium efficiency motors can provide savings of 0.5% to 3% over standard motors. The savings results from the fact that energy efficient motors run cooler than their standard counterparts, resulting in an increase in the life of the motor insulation and bearing. In general, an efficient motor is a more reliable motor because there are fewer winding failures, longer periods betwee n needed maintenance, and fewer forced outages. For example, using copper instead of aluminum in the windings, and increasing conductor cross

sectional area, lowers a motor’s I2R losses.

Miscellaneous Pool Pump High

- efficiency motors and two

- speed pumps provide improved energy efficiency for this load.

Miscellaneous Pool Heater Efficient pool heaters can make use of heat pump technology to achieve significantly higher coefficients of performance in the COP=5.0 range. Gas pool heaters have a burner to he at water in a loop. Efficiency improvements can include: exhaust fan controls, electronic ignition (no pilot light), compact size and lighter weight to reduce cycling losses, and sealed combustion. Very high efficiency units, or condensing units, condens e the water vapor produced in the combustion process and also use the heat from this condensation.

Miscellaneous Miscellaneous Improvement of miscellaneous electricity usesCommercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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- Equipment Measure Descriptions

End Use Measure Description

HVAC (All) Insulation

- Ceiling Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative transfer modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by reducing the heat loss or gain of a building. The type of building construction defines insulating possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose

- fill (blown) cellulose; loose

- fill (blown) fiberglass; and rigid polystyrene.

HVAC (All) Insulation

- Ducting Air distribution ducts can be insulated to reduce heating or cooling losses. Best results can be achieved by covering the entire surface area with
i nsulation. Insulation material inhibits the transfer of heat through the air

supply duct. Several types of ducts and duct insulation are available, including flexible duct, pre

- insulated duct, duct board, duct wrap, tacked, or glued rigid insulation, and waterproof hard shell materials for exterior ducts.

HVAC (All) Insulation

- Radiant
Barrier Radiant barriers are materials installed to reduce the heat gain in buildings. Radiant barriers are made from materials that are highly reflective and have low emissivity like aluminum. The closer the emissivity is to 0 the better they will perform. Radia nt barriers can be placed above the insulation or on the roof rafters.

HVAC (All) Insulation

Foundation Below Grade Insulation to R6

HVAC (All) Insulation

- Wall Cavity Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to inhibi t the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative transfer modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by reducing the heat loss or gain of a building. The type of building construction defines insulating possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose

- fill (blown) cellulose; loose

- fill (blown) fiberglass; and rigid polystyrene.

HVAC (All) HVAC

- Duct Repair and Sealing Leakage in unsealed ducts varies considerably because of the differences in fabricating machinery used, the methods for assembly, installation workmanship, and age of the ductwork. Air leaks from the system to the outdoors result in a direct loss proportional to the amount of leakage and the difference in enthalpy between the outdoor air and the condi tioned air. To seal ducts, a wide variety of sealing methods and products exist. Each has a relatively short shelf life, and no documented research has identified the aging characteristics of sealant applications.

HVAC (All) Doors

- High Efficiency Li ke other components of the shell, doors are subject to several types of heat loss: conduction, infiltration, and radiant losses. High efficiency doors have exceptional thermal insulation properties and tight

- fitting, weather

- stripping on the doorframe to r educe air leakage.

HVAC (All) Windows

- High Efficiency High

- efficiency windows, such as those labeled under the ENERGY STAR Program, are designed to reduce a building's energy bill while increasing comfort for the occupants at the same time. High

- efficiency windows have reducing properties that reduce the amount of heat transfer through the glazing surface. For example, some windows have a low

- E coating, which is a thin film of metallic oxide coating on the glass surface that allows passage of short

- wave solar energy through glass and prevents long

- wave energy from escaping. Another example is double

- pane glass that reduces conductive and convective heat transfer. There are also double

- pane glasses that are gas

filled (usually argon) to further increase the insulating properties of the window.

HVAC (All) Roof

- High Reflectivity The color and material of a building structur e surface will determine the amount of solar radiation absorbed by that surface and subsequently transferred into a building. This is called solar absorptance. By using a living roof or a roofing material with a light color (and a lower solar absorptance), the roof will absorb less solar radiation and consequently reduce the cooling load. Living roofs also reduce stormwater runoff.
Cooling Air

- Cooled Chiller

- Resetting the condenser water temperature to the lowest possib le settingCommercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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Condenser Water Temperature Reset allows the cooling tower to generate cooler water whenever possible and decreases the temperature lift between the condenser and the evaporator. This will generally increase chiller part

- load efficiency, though it may require increased tower fan energy use.

Cooling Air

- Cooled Chiller

- Economizer Economizers allow outside air (when it is cool and dry enough) to be brought into the building space to meet cooling loads instead of using mechanically cooled interior air. A dual enthalpy economizer consists of indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity sensors, dampers, motors, and motor controls. Economizers are most applicable to temperate climates and savings will be smaller in extremely hot or humid areas.

Cooling Air

- Cooled Chiller

- VSD on F ans Variable speed drives, which reduce chiller energy use under part load, are modeled for both air

- cooled and water

- cooled chillers.

Cooling Air

- Cooled Chiller

- Chilled Water Reset Chilled water reset controls save energy by improving chiller performance through increasing the supply chilled water temperature, which allows increased suction pressure during low load periods. Raising the chilled water temperature also reduces chilled water piping losses. However, the primary savings from the ch illed water reset measure results from chiller efficiency improvement. This is due partly to the smaller temperature difference between chilled water and ambient air, and partly due to the sensitivity of chiller performance to suction temperature.

Coolin g Air

- Cooled Chiller

- Chilled Water Variable

- Flow System The part

- load efficiency of chilled water loops can be improved substantially by varying the flow speed of the delivered water with the building demand for cooling.

Cooling Air

- Cooled Chiller

- High Efficiency Cooling Tower Fans High

- efficiency cooling fans utilize efficient components and variable frequency drives that improve fan performance by adjusting fan speed and rotation as conditions change.

Cooling Air

- Cooled Chiller

- Maintenance Fil ters, coils, and fins require regular cleaning and maintenance for the heat pump or roof top unit to function effectively and efficiently throughout its years of service. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline in performance while energ y use increases.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water Cooled Chiller Condenser Water Temperature Reset Resetting the condenser water temperature to the lowest possible setting allows the cooling tower to generate cooler water whenever possible and decreases the t emperature lift between the condenser and the evaporator. This will generally increase chiller part

- load efficiency, though it may require increased tower fan energy use.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water Cooled Chiller
Economizer Economizers allow outside air (when it is cool and dry enough) to be brought into the building space to meet cooling loads instead of using mechanically cooled interior air. A dual enthalpy economizer consists of indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity sensors, dampers, motors, an d motor controls. Economizers are most applicable to temperate climates and savings will be smaller in extremely hot or humid areas.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water

- Cooled Chiller
VSD on Fans Variable speed drives, which reduce chiller energy use under part load, are modeled for both air

- cooled and water

- cooled chillers.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water

- Cooled Chiller

- Chiller Water

reset Chilled water reset controls save energy by improving chiller performance through increasing the supply chilled water temperatu re, which allows increased suction pressure during low load periods. Raising the chilled water temperature also reduces chilled water piping losses. However, the primary savings from the chilled water reset measure results from chiller efficiency improve ment. This is due partly to the smaller temperature difference between chilled water and ambient air, and partly due to the sensitivity of chiller performance to suction temperature.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water

- Cooled Chiller Variable Flow System The pa rt

- load efficiency of chilled water loops can be improved substantially by varying the flow speed of the delivered water with the building demand for cooling.

Water

- Cooled Water

- Cooled Chiller High

- efficiency cooling fans utilize efficient components and variableCommercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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Chiller Water Cooled Chiller High Efficiency Cooling Tower Fans frequency drives that improve fan performance by adjusting fan speed and rotation as conditions change.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water

- Cooled Chiller
Maintenance Filters, coils, and fins require regular cleaning and maintenance for the heat pump or roof top unit to function effectively and efficiently throughout its years of service. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline in performance while energy use increases.

Cooling RTU

- Evaporative Precooler Evaporative precooling can improve the performance of air conditioning systems, most commonly RTUs. These systems typically use indirect evaporative cooling as a first stage to pre

- cool outside air. If the evaporative system cannot meet the full cooling lo ad, the air steam is further cooled with conventional refrigerative air conditioning technology.

Cooling RTU

- Maintenance Regular cleaning and maintenance enables a roof top unit to function effectively and efficiently throughout its years of service. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline in performance while energy use increases. Maintenance can increase the efficiency of poorly performing equipment by as much as 10%.

Heating Space Heating

- Heat Recovery Ventilator Heat recover y ventilation uses a counter

- flow, air

- to

- air heat exchanger between inbound and outbound air flow to selectively transfer heat and reduce space heating loads.

Cooling / Heating Heat Pump

- Maintenance Regular cleaning and maintenance enables a heat pump to function effectively and efficiently throughout its years of service. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline in performance while energy use increases. Maintenance can increase the efficiency of poorly performing equipment by as muc h as 10%.

Ventilation Ventilation

- ECM on
VAV Boxes ECM motors are well suited to the variable flow rates of VAV boxes. ECMs are a higher efficiency option for the air blowers and maintain efficiency better over a wide range of loads.

Ventilation Ventilation

- Variable Speed Control Variable speed controls adjust ventilation fans for part

- load conditions to reduce energy use.

Ventilation Ventilation

- CO2 Controlled Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels indicate the level of occupancy in a space. This

measur e uses sensors to monitor CO2 levels and controls on the air handling system to adjust the amount of outside air accordingly. Ventilation rates are thereby controlled based on occupancy, rather than a fixed rate, thus saving HVAC energy use.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Drainwater Heat Recovery Drainwater Heat Recovery is a system in which drain water is used to preheat cold water entering the water heater. While these systems themselves are relatively inexpensive, upgrading an existing system could be unr easonable because of demolition costs. Thus they are modeled for new vintage only.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Faucet Aerators/Low Flow Nozzles A faucet aerator or low flow nozzle spreads the stream from a faucet helping to reduce water usage. The amount of water passing through the aerator is measured in gallons per minute (GPM) and the lower the GPM the more water the aerator conserves.

Water Heating Water Heater

- High Efficiency Circulation Pump A high efficiency circulation pump uses an electronica lly commutated motor (ECM) to improve motor efficiency over a larger range of partial loads. In addition, an ECM allows for improved low RPM performance with greater torque and smaller pump dimensions.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Desuperheater A desuperheater can be added to an existing geothermal heat pump system (typically installed with the primary function of space heating and cooling) in order to draw off a portion of the geothermal heat for water heating purposes. The system can either su pplement the building's water heater, or be a full

- demand water heater that meets all of the building's hot water needs.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Solar System Solar water heating systems can be used in residential buildings that have an appropriate n ear

- south

- facing roof or nearby unshaded grounds for installing a collector. Although system types vary, in general these systems use a solarCommercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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absorber surface within a solar collector or an actual storage tank. Either a heat

- transfer fluid or the actual po table water flows through tubes attached to the absorber and transfers heat from it. (Systems with a separate heat

transfer

- fluid loop include a heat exchanger that then heats the potable water.) The heated water is stored in a separate preheat tank or a

c onventional water heater tank. If additional heat is needed, it is provided by a conventional water

- heating system.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Install Timer These measures use either a programmable thermostat or a timer to adjust the water heater setpo int at times of low usage, typically when a home is unoccupied.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Pipe Insulation Insulating hot water pipes decreases the amount of energy lost during distribution of hot water throughout the building. Insulating pipes will res ult in quicker delivery of hot water and allows lowering the water heating set point. There are several different types of insulation, the most common being polyethylene and neoprene.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Tank Blanket/Insulation Insulation l evels on hot water heaters can be increased by installing a fiberglass blanket on the outside of the tank. This increase in insulation reduces standby losses and thus saves energy. Water heater insulation is available either by the blanket or by square fo ot of fiberglass insulation with
R

- values ranging from 5 to 14.

Water Heating Water Heater

- Pre

Rinse Spray Valve Pre

- rinse valves use a spray of water to remove food waste from dishes prior to cleaning in a dishwasher. More efficient spray valves use less water thereby reducing water consumption, water heating cost, and waste water (sewer) charges. Pre

- rinse spray valves include a nozzle, squeeze lever, and dish guard bumper. The primary impacts of this measure are water savings. Reduced hot water c onsumption saves either natural gas or electricity, depending on the type of energy the hot water heater uses. This measure applies to time of sale, retrofit and direct install and appropriate lookup tables are included to support these delivery methods.

Water Heating Water Heater

Booster Water
Heater Gas booster heaters are used to supply sanitizing water to a dishwashing machine.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting

- Daylighting Controls Daylighting controls use a photosensor to detect ambient light a nd adjust or turn off electric lights accordingly.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting

- LED Exit Lighting The lamps inside exit signs represent a significant energy end

- use, since they usually operate 24 hours per day. Many old exit signs use incandesce nt lamps, which consume approximately 40 watts per sign. The incandescent lamps can be replaced with LED lamps that are specially designed for this specific purpose. In comparison, the LED lamps consume approximately 2

- 5

watts.

Interior Lighting Interio r Lighting

- Occupancy Sensors The installation of occupancy sensors allows lights to be turned off during periods when a space is unoccupied, virtually eliminating the wasted energy due to lights being left on. There are several types of occupancy sensors in the market.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting

- Timeclocks and
Timers In many cases lighting remains on at night and during weekends. A simple timer can set a schedule for turning lights off to reduce operating hours.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting

- Task Lighting Individual work areas can use task lighting instead of brightly lighting the entire area. Significant energy savings can be realized by focusing light directly where it is needed and lowering the general lighting level. An exampl e of task lighting is the common desk lamp. A 25W desk lamp can be installed in place of a typical lamp in a fixture.

Interior Lighting Interior Fluorescent

- Bi

- Level Fixture Bi

- level fixtures have the ability to reduce light output to a lower level, gi ven a control strategy that is based on a timer, occupancy sensor, motion sensor, or manual switch.
Interior Lighting Interior Fluorescent

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Delamp and Install Reflectors performe d as a separate energy efficiency measure in which a lighting engineer analyzes the lighting provided by current systems compared to the requirements of building occupants. This often leads to the removal of unnecessary lamps corresponding to an overall re duction in energy usage. In addition, installing a reflector in each fixture can improve light distribution from the remaining lamps.

Exterior Lighting Exterior Lighting

- Bi

Level Fixture Bi

- level fixtures have the ability to reduce light output to a l ower level, given a control strategy that is based on a timer, occupancy sensor, motion sensor, or manual switch.

Exterior Lighting Exterior Lighting

- Daylighting Controls Daylighting controls use a photosensor to detect ambient light and adjust or

turn off electric lights accordingly.

Exterior Lighting Exterior Lighting

- Photovoltaic Installation Solar photovoltaic generation may be used to power exterior lighting and thus eliminate all or part of the electrical energy use.

Refrigeration Refrigerator

- Anti

Sweat Heater Anti

- sweat heaters are used in virtually all low

- temperature display cases and many medium

- temperature cases to control humidity and prevent the condensation of water vapor on the sides and doors and on the products
contain ed in the cases. Typically, these heaters stay on all the time, even though they only need to be on about half the time. Anti

- sweat heater controls can come in the form of humidity sensors or time clocks.

Refrigeration Refrigerator

- Auto Door Closer Ant i

- sweat heaters are used in virtually all low

- temperature display cases and many medium

- temperature cases to control humidity and prevent the condensation of water vapor on the sides and doors and on the products contained in the cases. Typically, these h eaters stay on all the time, even though they only need to be on about half the time. Anti

- sweat heater controls can come in the form of humidity sensors or time clocks.

Refrigeration Refrigerator

- Decommissioning Early retirement, removal, and recycling or older, little used refrigerators and freezers removes the energy use of these inefficient, aging units.

Refrigeration Refrigerator

- Demand Defrost Units can be designed to perform at higher efficiency with a sensing and control system that runs defro st cycles based on demand/only when

necessary.

Refrigeration Refrigerator

- Door Gasket Replacement This measure involves replacing aging door gaskets that no longer adequately seal reach

- in refrigerators or glass door display cases.

Refrigeration Refrigerator

Economizer Economizers save energy in walk

- in coolers by bringing in outside air when it is sufficiently cool, rather than operating the compressor. In addition there is a control installed to cycle evaporator fans on and off as opposed to

co nstantly running while economizer is running. In order for this characterization to apply, the efficient equipment is assumed to be a walk

- in cooler with a refrigeration economizer

Refrigeration Refrigerator

- Evaporator Fan Controls Evaporator fan motor controls allow for part load use or demand scheduling based on variable refrigeration load requirements, reducing energy consumption.

Refrigeration Refrigeration

- High Efficiency Evaporator
Fan Motors Electronically commutated motors (ECM) operate at variable speeds.

Refrigeration Refrigerator

- Floating Head
Pressure Floating head pressure control allows the pressure in the condenser to "float" with ambient temperatures. This method reduces refrigeration compression ratios, improves system efficiency and extends the compressor life. The greatest savings with a floating head pressure approach occurs when the ambient temperatures are low, such as in the winter season. Floating head pressure control is most practical for new installations. However,

retr ofits installation can be completed with some existing refrigeration systems. Installing floating head pressure control increases the capacity of the compressor when temperatures are low, which may lead to short cycling.
Refrigeration Refrigerator

- Strip Strip curtains at the entrances to large walk

- in coolers or freezers, such asCommercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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Curtain those used in supermarkets; reduce air transfer between the refrigerated space and the surrounding space.

Refrigeration Refrigerator

- High Efficiency Compressor Standard compressors typically operate at approximately 65% efficiency. High

- efficiency models are available that can improve compressor efficiency by 15%.

Refrigeration Refrigerator

- Variable Speed Compressor The part

- load efficiency of drive systems ca n be improved by varying the speed of the motor drive. An additional benefit of variable

- speed controls is the ability to start and stop the motor and process gradually, thus extending the life of the motor and associated machinery.

Refrigeration Vendin g Machine

Controller Cold beverage vending machines usually operate 24 hours a day regardless of whether the surrounding area is occupied or not. The result is that the vending machine consumes energy unnecessarily, because it will operate all night to k eep the beverage cold even when there would be no customers until the next morning. A vending machine controller can reduce energy consumption without compromising the temperature of the vended product. The controller uses an infrared sensor to monitor th e surrounding area's occupancy and will power down the vending machine when the area is unoccupied. It will also monitor the room's temperature and will re

- power the machine at one to three hour intervals independent of occupancy to ensure that the produc t stays cold.

Refrigeration Refrigerator

- eCube The eCube consists of a solid, waxy food simulant that is fitted around a thermostat sensor that would otherwise measure air temperature. The refrigeration controls therefore attempt to regulate the temper ature of food, which changes more slowly and gradually than air, thereby reducing the frequency of refrigeration cycles.

Refrigeration Grocery

- Display
Case

- LED Lighting High

- efficiency LED display case lighting not only reduces direct lighting

energy u se, but also reduce internal heat gains to the case from lights that must be removed by the refrigeration system.

Refrigeration Grocery

- Display
Case Motion Sensors Motion sensors reduce lighting load when area around display case is unoccupied to save energy on lighting.

Refrigeration Grocery

- ECM’s for Display Cases Replacement of shaded

- pole evaporator fan motors with ECM motors in display cases allows for variable refrigeration loads to be handled. Reductions come from increased motor efficiency and the reduction of heating load.

Refrigeration Grocery

- Open Display Case

- Night
Covers Night covers can be used on open refrigeration cases when a facility is closed or few customers are in the store.

Food Preparation Cooking Exhaust Hoods with Sensor Control Improved exhaust hoods involve installing variable

- speed controls on commercial kitchen hoods. These controls provide ventilation based on actual cooking loads. When grills, broilers, stoves, fryers or other kitchen appliances are not being used, the controls automatically sense the reduced load and decrease the fan speed accordingly. This results in lower energy consumption because the system is only running as needed rather than at 100% capacity at all times.

Office Equipment Office Equipment

- Plug Load Occupancy
Sensors Occupancy sensors can control power strips and thus turn off energy used by plug loads, such as task lights, when an office is unoccupied.

HVAC (All) Energy Management System An energy management system (EMS) allows managers/owners to monitor and control the major energy

- consuming systems within a commercial building. At the minimum, the EMS can be used to monitor and record energy consumption of the different end

- uses in a bu ilding, and can control operation schedules of the HVAC and lighting systems. The monitoring function helps building managers/owners to identify systems that are operating inefficiently so that actions can be taken to correct the problem. The EMS can als o provide preventive maintenance scheduling that will reduce the cost of operations and maintenance in the long run. The control functionality of the EMS allows the building manager/owner to operateCommercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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building systems from one central location. The operati on schedules set via the EMS help to prevent building systems from operating during unwanted or unoccupied periods. This analysis assumes that this measure is limited to buildings with a central HVAC system.

HVAC (All) Thermostat

- Clock/Programmable A programmable thermostat can be added to most heating/cooling systems. They are typically used during winter to lower temperatures at night and in summer to increase temperatures during the afternoon. There are two

setting models, and well as models that allow separate programming for each day of the week. The energy savings from this type of thermostat are identical to those of a "setback" strategy with standard thermostats, but the convenience of a programmable thermostat makes it a much more attractive option. In this analysis, the baseline is assumed to have no thermostat setback.

Miscellaneous Lodging

- Guest Room Controls Hotel guestrooms can be fitted with occupancy controls that turn off energy

using equipment when the guest is not using the room. The occupancy controls comes in several forms, but this analysis assumes the simplest kind, which is a simple switch near the room’s entry where the guest can deposit their room key or card. If the key or card is present, then lights, TV, and air conditi oning can receive power and operate. When the guest leaves and takes the key, all equipment shuts off.

HVAC, Lighting HVAC

- Occupancy
Sensors Occupancy sensors turn off or adjust HVAC settings when a space is unoccupied.

HVAC, Lighting Commissioning

- HVAC, Lighting For new construction and major renovations, commissioning ensures that building systems are properly designed, specified, and installed to meet the design intent and provide high

- efficiency performance. Commissioning begins during the desig n process.

HVAC, Lighting Retrocommissioning

- HVAC, Lighting In existing buildings, the retrocommissioning process identifies low

- cost or no cost measures, including controls adjustments, to improve building performance and reduce operating costs. Retrocommissioning addresses HVAC, lighting, DHW, and other major building systems.

HVAC (All) Advanced New Construction Designs Advanced new construction designs use an integrated approach to the design of new buildings to account for the interaction of building systems. Designs may specify the building orientation, building shell, proper sizing of equipment and systems, and controls strategies with the goal of optimizing building energy efficiency and comfort. Options that may be evaluated and incorporat ed include passive solar strategies, increased thermal mass, natural ventilation, energy recovery ventilation, daylighting strategies, and shading strategies. This measure is modeled for new vintage only.

HVAC, Lighting Custom Measures Custom measures ma y be included in the analysis to serve as a “catch all” for measures for which costs and savings are not easily quantified and that could be part of a custom program. Typical costs and energy savings are assumed such that the measures pass the economic sc reen.

Electronics Electronics

- Smart Power Strip This measure relates to Controlled Power Strips (or Smart Strips) which are multi

- plug power strips with the ability to automatically disconnect specific connected loads depending upon the power draw of a control load, also plugged into the strip. Power is disconnected from the switched (controlled) outlets when the control load power draw is reduced below a certain adjustable threshold, thus turning off the appliances plugged into the switched outlets. By disconnecting, the standby load of the controlled devices, the overall load of a centralized group of equipment (i.e. entertainment centers and home office) can be reduced. Uncontrolled outlets are also provided that are not affected by the control device and so are always providing power to any device plugged into it.

Electronics Electronics

- Monitor Power Management EZ Save Monitor Power Management SoftwareCommercial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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Miscellaneous Pool Heater

- Solar This measure replaces a conventional pool heater with a solar system.

Miscellaneous Pool Pump

- Timer A pool pump timer allows the pump to turn off automatically, eliminating the wasted energy associated with unnecessary pumping.

Miscellaneous Non

- HVAC Motors

- Variable Speed Control The part

- load efficiency of mo tors can be improved by varying the speed of the motor drive. There are two major types of variable speed controls: mechanical and electronic. An additional benefit of variable

- speed controls is the ability to start and stop the motor gradually, thus ex tending the life of the motor and associated machinery. This analysis assumes that electronic variable speed controls are installed.EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting D

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### APPENDIX D



## INDUSTRIAL ENERGY EF FICIENCY EQUIPMENT A ND MEASURE DATA

This appendix presents detailed information for industrial energy

- efficiency measures ( equipment and other measures per the LoadMAP taxonomy ) that were evaluated in this study.

Measure Descriptions
Table D

- 1 and Table D

- 2 provide brief descriptions for all equipment and non

- equipment

measures that were asses sed for potential

. 11

Equipment Measure Data
The tables in the file “ 1434_Appendix_D_Tables

- Industrial_Equipment.xlsx ” list the detailed unit

level data (including economic screen results) for industrial energy

- efficiency equipment measures in existing and n ew buildings. Savings are in annual kWh per employee , and incremental costs are in $/ employee ($/empl. ), unless noted otherwise. The BC ratio shown in the tables are for the first year of the potential analysis ( 2011 ), although the B/C ratio is calculated within LoadMAP for each year of the forecast. The B/C ratio in the tables is 1.00 if the measure represents the baseline technology , and zero if the technology is not available in 2013. The final data item in these tables is the levelized cost of conserved energy, which is defined as the cost of the measure divided by the cumulative amount of energy savings accrued over the measure’s lifetime ($/kWh).

1434_Appendix_D_T ables-Industrial_Equip

Non

- Equipment Measure Data
The tables in the file “ 1434_Appendix_D_Tables

- Industrial_Non

- Equipment.xlsx ” list the detailed unit

- level data (including economic screen results) for industrial energy

- efficiency non

- equipment measures in existing and new buildings. Because these measures can produce energy

- use savings for multiple end

- use loads (e.g., insulation affects heating and cooling energy use) savings are expressed as a net percentage of all the relevant, combined end

- use loads. Base saturation indicates the percentage of square footage in which the mea sure is already installed. Applicability is a factor that account s for whether the measure can be applied to the building. Cost is expressed in $/ building or $/square foot, as indicated in the “unit” column . The detailed

measure

- level tables present the re sults of the benefit/cost (B/C) analysis for the first year of the analysis (2011) although the B/C ratio is calculated within LoadMAP for each year of the forecast. These tables also contain the levelized cost of conserved energy, which is defined as the cost of the measure divided by the cumulative amount of energy savings accrued over the measure’s lifetime. This metric is given in terms of $/kWh.

1434_Appendix_D_T ables-Industrial_Non-

11 Measure Description Source: EnerNOC internal databasesIndustrial Energy Effic iency Equipment and Measure Data

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- 1 Indu strial Energy Efficiency Equipment Measure Descriptions

End Use Technology Measure Description

Cooling Air

- Cooled Chiller A central chiller plant creates chilled water for distribution throughout the facility. Because of the wide variety of system types a nd sizes, savings and cost values for efficiency improvements represent an average over screw, reciprocating, and centrifugal technologies. Under this simplified approach, each central system is characterized by an aggregate efficiency value (inclusive of chiller, pumps, and motors), in kW/ton with a further efficiency upgrade through the application of variable refrigerant flow technology.

Cooling Water

- Cooled Chiller A central chiller plant creates chilled water for distribution throughout the facility. Water source chillers include heat rejection via a condenser loop and cooling tower. Because of the wide variety of system types and sizes, savings and cost values for efficiency improvements represent an average over screw, reciprocating, and centrifugal technologies. Under this simplified approach, each central system is characterized by an aggregate efficiency value (inclusive of chiller, pumps, motors, and condenser loop equipment), in kW/ton with a further efficiency upgrade through the application of variable refrigerant flow technology.

Cooling R oof Top AC Packaged cooling systems, such as rooftop units (RTUs), are simple to install and maintain, and are commonly used in small and medium

- sized commercial buildings. Applications range from a single supply system with air intake filters, supply fan, and cooling coil, or can become more complex with the addition of a return air duct, return air fan, and various cont rols to optimize performance. For packaged RTUs, varying Energy Efficiency Ratios (EER) are modeled, as well as a ductless mini

- split system.

Cooling / Heating PTAC/PTHP This measure includes efficiency upgrades to other small cooling systems in
commercia l buildings including room AC units, packaged terminal air conditioning (PTAC) units, and packaged terminal heat pumps (PTHP). Cooling / Heating Air

- Source Heat Pump For heat pumps, units with increasing EER and COP levels are evaluated, as well as a duct less mini

- split system. Cooling / Heating Geothermal Heat Pump For heat pumps, units with increasing EER and COP levels are evaluated.

Heating Electric Furnace Resistive heating elements are used to convert electricity directly to heat. The heat is then delivered by a supply fan and duct system to the regions that require heating.

Heating Electric Room Heat Resistive heating elements are used to convert electricity directly to heat. Conductive fins surrounding the element or another mechanism is us ed to deliver the heat directly to the surrounding room or area. These are typically either baseboard or wall

- mounted units.

Ventilation Ventilation A variable air volume ventilation system modulates the air flow rate as needed based on the interior cond itions of the building to reduce fan load, improve dehumidification, and reduce energy usage.

Interior Lighting Screw

- in This measure evaluates higher

- efficiency alternatives for screw

- in interior lamps including halogen, CFL, and LED.

Interior Lighting High

- Bay Fixtures With the exception of screw

- in lighting, industrial lighting efficiency changes typically require more than the simple purchase and instal lation of alternative lamp restrictions regarding ballasts, fixtures, and circuitry limit the potent ial for direct substitution of one lamp type for another. Also, during the buil dout for a leased office space, management could decide to replace all lamps, ballasts, and fixtures with different configurations. This type of decision

- making is modeled on a stock turnover basis because of the time between opportunities for upgrades. For High

- Bay fixtures, alternatives include mercury vapor, metal halides, T5 fluorescent high output, and high

- pressure sodium.

Interior Lighting Linear Fluorescent With the exception of screw

- in lighting, industrial lighting efficiency changes typically require more than the simple purchase and installation of alternative lamp restrictions regarding ballasts, fixtures, and circuitry limit the potential forIndustrial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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direct sub stitution of one lamp type for another. Also, during the buildout for a leased office space, management could decide to replace all lamps, ballasts, and fixtures with different configurations. This type of decision

- making is modeled on a stock turnover bas is because of the time between opportunities for upgrades. For linear fluorescent fixtures, alternatives include T12, T8, Super T8, T5, and LED.

Exterior Lighting Screw

- in This measure evaluates higher

- efficiency alternatives for screw

- in interior lamps i ncluding halogen, CFL, and LED.

Exterior Lighting HID Alternatives modeled include metal halides, T8 and T5 high output, high pressure sodium, and LEDs

Exterior Lighting Linear Fluorescent For linear fluorescent fixtures, alternatives include T12, T8, Su per T8, T5, and
LED.

Process Process Electrochemical Electrochemical processes deal with chemical reactions in solution driven by electricity applied at a cathode and anode.

Process Other Process This category is a "catch all" for the many unique process applications in the broader industrial sector.

Process Process Cooling Industrial process where cooling is applied

Process Process Refrigeration Industrial refrigeration process

Process Process Heating Industrial process where heating is applied

Motor s Pumps, Fans & Blowers, Compressed Air, Conveyors , Material Handling, Material Processing Premium efficiency motors reduce the amount of lost energy going into heat rather than power. Since less heat is generated, less energy is needed to cool the motor with a fan. The initial cost of energy efficient motors is generally higher than for standard motors; however their life

- cycle costs can make them far more economical because of savings they generate in operating expense. The fact that energy efficient m otors run cooler than their standard counterparts also results in an increase in the life of the motor insulation and bearing. High efficiency units use copper instead of aluminum in the windings and increased conductor cross

- sectional area to lower a mot or’s I2R losses.

Miscellaneous Miscellaneous Improvement of miscellaneous electric uses.Industrial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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- 2 Industrial Energy Efficiency Non

- Equipment Measure Descriptions

End Use Measure Description

HVAC (All) Insulation

- Ceiling Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative transfer modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by reducing the heat loss or gain of a building. The type of building construction defines insulating possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose

- fill (blown) cellulose; loose

- fill (blown) fiberglass; and rigid polystyrene.

HVAC (All) I nsulation

- Ducting Air distribution ducts can be insulated to reduce heating or cooling losses. Best results can be achieved by covering the entire surface area with insulation. Insulation material inhibits the transfer of heat through the air

- supply du ct. Several types of ducts and duct insulation are available, including flexible duct,

pre

- insulated duct, duct board, duct wrap, tacked, or glued rigid insulation, and waterproof hard shell materials for exterior ducts.

HVAC (All) Insulation

- Wall
Cav ity Thermal insulation is material or combinations of materials that are used to inhibit the flow of heat energy by conductive, convective, and radiative transfer modes. Thus, thermal insulation can conserve energy by reducing the heat loss or gain of a b uilding. The type of building construction defines insulating possibilities. Typical insulating materials include: loose

- fill (blown) cellulose; loose

- fill (blown) fiberglass; and rigid polystyrene.

HVAC (All) HVAC

- Duct Repair and Sealing Leakage in unsealed ducts varies considerably because of the differences in fabricating machinery used, the methods for assembly, installation workmanship, and age of the ductwork. Air leaks from the system to the outdoors result in a direct loss proportional to the amount of leakage and the difference in enthalpy between the outdoor air and the conditioned air. To seal ducts, a wide variety of sealing methods and products exist. Each has a relatively short shelf life, and no documented research has identified the aging characteristics of sealant applications.

Air

- Cooled Chiller Air

- Cooled Chiller

- Economizer Economizers allow outside air (when it is cool and dry enough) to be brought into the building space to meet cooling loads instead of using mechanically

co oled interior air. A dual enthalpy economizer consists of indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity sensors, dampers, motors, and motor controls. Economizers are most applicable to temperate climates and savings will be smaller in extremely hot or humi d areas.

Air

- Cooled Chiller Air

- Cooled Chiller

- Efficient Mechanical Layout Improvements to layout and placement of chiller equipment, for example to enable unobstructed access to cooling tower airflow or minimize the length of refrigerant run between cooling tower and chiller head unit.

Air

- Cooled Chiller Air

- Cooled Chiller

- Maintenance Filters, coils, and fins require regular cleaning and maintenance for the heat pump or roof top unit to function effectively and efficiently throughout its years of service. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline in performa nce while energy use increases.

Air

- Cooled Chiller Air

- Cooled Chiller

- Chilled Water Reset Chilled water reset controls save energy by improving chiller performance through increasing the supply chilled water temperature, which allows increased suction pressure during low load periods. Raising the chilled water temperature also reduces chilled water piping losses. However, the primary savings from the chilled water reset measure results from chiller efficiency improvement. This is due partly to the s maller temperature difference between chilled water and ambient air, and partly due to the sensitivity of chiller performance to suction temperature.

Air

- Cooled Chiller Air

- Cooled Chiller

- Chilled Water Variable

- Flow System The part

- load efficiency of ch illed water loops can be improved substantially by varying the flow speed of the delivered water with the building demand for cooling.

Air

- Cooled Chiller Air

- Cooled Chiller

- Condenser Water Temperature Reset Resetting the condenser water temperature t o the lowest possible setting allows the cooling tower to generate cooler water whenever possible and decreases the temperature lift between the condenser and the evaporator. This will generally increase chiller part

- load efficiency, though it may requireIndustrial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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increased tower fan energy use.

Air

- Cooled Chiller Air

- Cooled Chiller

- High Efficiency Cooling Tower Fans High

- efficiency cooling fans utilize efficient components and variable frequency drives that improve fan performance by adjusting fan speed and rota tion as conditions change.

Air

- Cooled Chiller Air

- Cooled Chiller

- VSD on Fans Variable speed drives, which reduce chiller energy use under part load, are modeled for both air

- cooled and water

- cooled chillers.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water

- Cooled Chiller
Economizer Economizers allow outside air (when it is cool and dry enough) to be brought into the building space to meet cooling loads instead of using mechanically cooled interior air. A dual enthalpy economizer consists of indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity sensors, dampers, motors, and motor controls. Economizers are most applicable to temperate climates and savings will be smaller in extremely hot or humid areas.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water Cooled Chiller

- Efficient Mechanical Layout Improvemen ts to layout and placement of chiller equipment, for example to enable unobstructed access to cooling tower airflow or minimize the length of refrigerant run between cooling tower and chiller head unit.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water Cooled Chiller
Maintena nce Filters, coils, and fins require regular cleaning and maintenance for the heat pump or roof top unit to function effectively and efficiently throughout its years of service. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline in performance whil e energy use increases.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water Cooled Chiller

- Chilled Water
Reset Chilled water reset controls save energy by improving chiller performance through increasing the supply chilled water temperature, which allows increased suction pressure during low load periods. Raising the chilled water temperature also reduces chilled water piping losses. However, the primary savings from the chilled water reset measure results from chiller efficiency improvement. This is due partly to the sm aller temperature difference between chilled water and ambient air, and partly due to the sensitivity of chiller performance to suction temperature.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water Cooled Chiller

- Variable Flow System The part

- load efficiency of chilled water loops can be improved substantially by varying the flow speed of the delivered water with the building demand for cooling.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water Cooled Chiller Condenser Water Temperature Reset Resetting t he condenser water temperature to the lowest possible setting allows the cooling tower to generate cooler water whenever possible and decreases the temperature lift between the condenser and the evaporator. This will generally increase chiller part

- load ef ficiency, though it may require increased tower fan energy use.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water Cooled Chiller High Efficiency Cooling Tower Fans High

- efficiency cooling fans utilize efficient components and variable frequency drives that improve fan performan ce by adjusting fan speed and rotation as conditions change.

Water

- Cooled Chiller Water Cooled Chiller
VSD on Fans Variable speed drives, which reduce chiller energy use under part load, are modeled for both air

- cooled and water

- cooled chillers.

Roof Top AC RTU

- Maintenance Regular cleaning and maintenance enables a roof top unit to function effectively and efficiently throughout its years of service. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline in performance while energy use
increases. M aintenance can increase the efficiency of poorly performing equipment by as much as 10%.

Cooling / Heating Heat Pump

- Maintenance Regular cleaning and maintenance enables a heat pump to function effectively and efficiently throughout its years of service. Neglecting necessary maintenance leads to a steady decline in performance while energy use increases. Maintenance can increase the efficiency of poorly performing equipment by as much as 10%.

HVAC (All) Roofs

- High Reflectivity The color and ma terial of a building structure surface will determine the amount of solar radiation absorbed by that surface and subsequently transferred into a building. This is called solar absorptance. By using a living roof or a roofing material with a light color (an d a lower solar absorptance), the roof will absorb less solar radiation and consequently reduce the cooling load.Industrial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Meas ure Data

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Living roofs also reduce stormwater runoff.

HVAC (All) Energy Management System An energy management system (EMS) allows managers/owners to monitor and control the major energy

- consuming systems within a commercial building. At the minimum, the EMS can be used to monitor and record energy consumption of the different end

- uses in a building, and can control operation schedules of the HVAC and lighting systems. The monitoring function helps building managers/owners to identify systems that are operating inefficiently so that actions can be taken to correct the problem. The EMS can also provide preventive maintenance scheduling that will reduce the cost of operations and maintenance in the long run. The control functionality of the EMS allows the building manager/owner to operate building systems from one central location. The operation schedules set via the EMS help to prevent building system s from operating during unwanted or unoccupied periods. This analysis assumes that this measure is limited to buildings with a central HVAC system.

HVAC (All) Thermostat

- Clock/Programmable A programmable thermostat can be added to most heating/cooling s ystems. They are typically used during winter to lower temperatures at night and in summer to increase temperatures during the afternoon. There are two

- setting models, and well as models that allow separate programming for each day of the week. The ener gy savings from this type of thermostat are identical to those of a "setback" strategy with standard thermostats, but the convenience of a programmable thermostat makes it a much more attractive option. In this analysis, the baseline is assumed to have no thermostat setback.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting

- Occupancy Sensors The installation of occupancy sensors allows lights to be turned off during periods when a space is unoccupied, virtually eliminating the wasted energy due to lights being left o n. There are several types of occupancy sensors in the market.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting

- Skylights Addition of transparent windows/fixtures in the roof to allow daylight to enter and reduce the need for powered lighting.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting

- Time Clocks and
Timers In many cases lighting remains on at night and during weekends. A simple timer can set a schedule for turning lights off to reduce operating hours.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting

- LED Exit Lighting The lamp s inside exit signs represent a significant energy end

- use, since they usually operate 24 hours per day. Many old exit signs use incandescent lamps, which consume approximately 40 watts per sign. The incandescent lamps can be replaced with LED lamps that are specially designed for this specific purpose. In comparison, the LED lamps consume approximately 2

- 5 watts.

Interior Lighting Interior Lighting

- Daylighting Controls Daylighting controls use a photosensor to detect ambient light and adjust or

turn off electric lights accordingly.

Interior Lighting Interior Screw

- in

- Task Lighting Individual work areas can use task lighting instead of brightly lighting the entire area. Significant energy savings can be realized by focusing light directly where
it is needed and lowering the general lighting level. An example of task lighting is the common desk lamp. A 25W desk lamp can be installed in place of a typical lamp in a fixture.

Interior Lighting Interior Fluorescent

- Bi

- Level Fixture Bi

- level fixtures have the ability to reduce light output to a lower level, given a control strategy that is based on a timer, occupancy sensor, motion sensor, or manual switch.

Interior Lighting Interior Fluorescent

- Delamp and Install Reflectors While sometimes included in lighting retrofit projects, delamping is often performed as a separate energy efficiency measure in which a lighting engineer analyzes the lighting provided by current systems compared to the requirements of building occupants. This often leads to the removal of unnecessary lamps corresponding to an overall reduction in energy usage. In addition, installing a reflector in each fixture can improve light distribution from the remaining lamps.

Exterior Lighting Exterior Lighting

- Bi

Level Fixture Bi

- level fixtures have the ability to reduce light output to a lower level, given a control strategy that is based on a timer, occupancy sensor, motion sensor, or manual switch.Industrial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

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Exterior Lighting Exterior Lighting

- Daylighting Control s Daylighting controls use a photosensor to detect ambient light and adjust or turn off electric lights accordingly.

Exterior Lighting Exterior Lighting

- Photovoltaic Installation Solar photovoltaic generation may be used to power exterior lighting and t hus eliminate all or part of the electrical energy use.

Process Process

- Conductivity Controls Automated control of conductivity levels in a process solution, for example by variably injecting CO2 into a stream of rinse water, can maintain an optimal

so lution that increases process effectiveness, decreases impurities, reduces scaling or corrosion, and minimizes required rinse time.

Process Process

- Controls on Fume Hoods Improved fume hoods involve installing sensors and variable

- speed controls to provide ventilation based on actual demand. When the relevant equipment or process is not active, the controls automatically decrease the fan speed accordingly.

Process Proces s

- Timers and Controls Significant energy savings can frequently be attained from processes by adding a timer or altering their control algorithms.

Refrigeration Refrigeration

- Floating Head
Pressure Floating head pressure control allows the pressure in the condenser to "float" with ambient temperatures. This method reduces refrigeration compression ratios, improves system efficiency and extends the compressor life. The greatest savings with a floating head pressure approach occurs when the ambient tempe ratures are low, such as in the winter season. Floating head pressure control is most practical for new installations. However, retrofits installation can be completed with some existing refrigeration systems. Installing floating head pressure control inc reases the capacity of the compressor when temperatures are low, which may lead to short cycling.

Refrigeration Refrigeration

- System Controls Refrigeration System Controls would include measures such as temperature sensors, flow/float controls, and pres sure controls. These work to improve the refrigeration system by limiting demand and improving overall system efficiency.

Refrigeration Refrigeration

- System Maintenance This measure includes repairing and recharging refrigerant lines, cleaning condenser coils, and replacing the oil. This reduces energy consumption by improving the rate at which the system can compress and cool refrigerant as it moves through the system.

Refrigeration Refrigeration

- System Optimization Refrigeration system optimization is a thorough overhaul of the refrigeration system which involves the resizing, sequencing, and controlling of compressors in order to optimize load.

Compressed
Air Compressed Air

- Air Usage Reduction This measure invol ves a process audit of the facility to determine if the actual application of compressed air can be reduced, reconfigured, consolidated, or otherwise optimized.

Compressed
Air Compressed Air

- Compressor Replacement This measure is the replacement of exis ting air compressor equipment with more efficient compressors and motors in order to improve energy efficiency.

Compressed
Air Compressed Air

- System Controls Compressed Air System Controls would include measures such as VSDs, centralized controls, and system performance monitoring. These measures work in tandem to reduce energy usage by lowering system demand.

Compressed
Air Compressed Air

- System Maintenance This measure includes repairing holes in air lines, replacing failed nozzles, and lubricating the compressors. This reduces energy consumption by improving compressor efficiency and reducing line loss as gas moves through the system.

Compressed
Air Compressed Air

- System Optimization and Improvements System optimization is a thorough overhaul of the compressed air system which involves the resizing, sequencing, and improving control over all compressors in a system in order to reduce energy consumption to a minimum. This measure may include those from Controls and Maintenance.

Pumps Pumping Syst em

- Controls Significant energy savings can frequently be attained from processes by adding a timer or altering their control algorithms.

Pumps Pumping System

- Maintenance This measure includes clearing traps, repairing impellers, and repairing broken

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by moving fluids through the system.

Pumps Pumping System

- Optimization Optimization integrates best practices of system analysis, equipment improvements, and operational improve ments into a sustaining energy program. A facility that implements such a practice treats its energy program in a similar manner to safety or quality control programs: an individual or team is tasked with developing and enforcing standards, goals are set, regular reports are generated and reported to management, and all plant employees are engaged and held accountable.

Pumps Pumps

- Variable Speed Control The part

- load efficiency of drive systems can be improved by varying the speed of the motor drive. An additional benefit of variable

- speed controls is the ability to start and stop the motor and process gradually, thus extending the life of the motor and associated machinery.

Pumps Pump Equipment Upgrade Improved design of flow, housing, control valves, impeller trimming, proper sizing, etc to increase productive output per energy input. Moreover, these improved systems could be assessed and managed in accordance with recognized standards such as ASME EA

- 2

- 2008.

Fans & Blowers Fan Equipment Upgrade Improved design of airflow, blades, housing, sizing, etc to increase productive output per energy input. Fans are widely used in industry for conveyance, drying and ventilation. For example, relatively inefficient centrifugal

- radial fans, with ef ficiency as low as 22%, are commonly used in industry. These fans could be replaced with more efficient centrifugal backwardly inclined fans that increase overall fan efficiency by 20% to 30%. The savings potential for premium

- efficiency fans is high, and the costs are relatively low. However, premium

- efficiency fans are sometimes not chosen for industrial applications because of concerns about reliable operation in dirty environments.

Fans & Blowers Fan System

- Controls Significant energy savings can fre quently be attained from processes by adding a timer or altering their control algorithms.

Fans & Blowers Fan System

- Maintenance This measure includes repairing holes in ducts, replacing clogged filters, and lubricating the motors. This reduces energy c onsumption by improving fan efficiency and reducing system loss as gas moves through the ductwork.

Fans & Blowers Fan System

- Optimization Optimization integrates best practices of system analysis, equipment improvements, and operational improvements int o a sustaining energy program. A facility that implements such a practice treats its energy program in a similar manner to safety or quality control programs: an individual or team is tasked with developing and enforcing standards, goals are set, regular reports are generated and reported to management, and all plant employees are engaged and held accountable.

Fans & Blowers Fans

- Variable Speed Control The part

- load efficiency of drive systems can be improved by varying the speed of the motor drive. An additional benefit of variable

- speed controls is the ability to start and stop the motor and process gradually, thus extending the life of the motor and associated machinery.

Motors Motors

- Magnetic Adjustable Speed
Drives To allow for adjustable speed operation, this technology uses magnetic induction to couple a drive to its load. Varying the magnetic slip within the coupling controls the speed of the output shaft. Magnetic drives perform best at the upper end of the speed range due to the energ y consumed by the slip. Unlike traditional ASDs, magnetically coupled ASDs create no power distortion on the electrical system. However, magnetically coupled ASD efficiency is best when power needs are greatest. VFDs may show greater efficiency when the

av erage load speed is below 90% of the motor speed, however this occurs when power demands are reduced.

Motors Motors

- Efficient Rewind When a motor burns out or is in need of repair, the owner may elect to either replace the motor or have it rewound. A t ypical motor rewind costs less than a replacement motor, but at the cost of efficiency. An efficient rewind, however, attempts to improve the efficiency of the motor by reducing stator losses. If the manufacturer has left stator slots open, or not entirely filled, additional copper wire can be included to reduce resistance and increase efficiency.Industrial Energy Efficiency Equipment and Measure Data

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting D

- 9 End Use Measure Description

Motors Motors

- Variable Frequency Drive The part

- load efficiency of drive systems can be improved by varying the speed of the motor drive. An additional benef it of variable

- speed controls is the ability to start and stop the motor and process gradually, thus extending the life of the motor and associated machinery.

HVAC, Lighting Commissioning

- HVAC, Lighting For new construction and major renovations, commi ssioning ensures that building systems are properly designed, specified, and installed to meet the design intent and provide high

- efficiency performance. Commissioning begins during the design process.

HVAC, Lighting Retrocommissioning

- HVAC, Lighting In existing buildings, the retrocommissioning process identifies low

- cost or no cost measures, including controls adjustments, to improve building performance and reduce operating costs. Retrocommissioning addresses HVAC, lighting, DHW, and other major build ing systems.

Ventilation Ventilation

- CO2 Controlled Also known as Demand Controlled Ventilation, this measure uses carbon dioxide (CO2) levels to indicate the level of occupancy in a space. Sensors monitor CO2 levels so that air handling controls can adjust the amount of outside air the system needs to intake. Ventilation rates are thereby controlled based on occupancy, rather than a fixed rate, thus saving HVAC energy use.

All Custom Measures Custom measures may be included in the analysis to serve a s a “catch all” for measures for which costs and savings are not easily quantified and that could be part of a custom program. Typical costs and energy savings are assumed such that the measures pass the economic screen.EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting E

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### APPENDIX E



## MARKET ADOPTION FACT ORS

To calculate achievable potential, we apply a set of market a doption factors to economic potential. These parameters are described below, followed by a discussion of how they are applied to calculate achievable potential. Finally, we present the three sets of factors at the end of this section.

Maximum Achievable Potential Adoption Rates
These factors are applied to Economic potential to estimate the upper bound of achievable potential: Maximum Achievable Potential. These estimate customer adoption of economic measures when delivered through efficiency programs under ideal market, implementation, and customer preference conditions. Information channels are assumed to be established and efficient for marketing, educating consumers, and coordinating with trade allies and delivery partners. The Maximum Achievable Potential ado ption rates are based on the take rates from the program interest surveys

. For Maximum Achievable Potential we used the 1

- year payback take rate for the customer segment that is most inclined to adopt energy efficiency measures. This reflects what the best practice could achieve in the Ameren Missouri service territory.

T he Maximum Achievable Potential adoption rates are applied directly to economic potential to calculate the Maximum Achievable Potential estimates.
Realistic Achievable Potential Adoption R ates
These factors are applied to Maximum Achievable P otential to calculate Realistic Achievable Potential. They reflect e xpected program participation given current barriers to customer acceptance, non

- ideal implementation conditions, and limited program budgets. This r epresents a lower bound on achievable potential and are also developed using the results of the program interest survey of Ameren Missouri customers

. The Realistic Achievable Potential adoption rates are based on the average take rate across all segments at the 3

- year payback level.

Like the Maximum Achievable Potential rates, these rates increase over time.
To review the take rates from the program interest surveys, please see Volume 2: Market Research.

Estimates of Achievable Potential

Th e tables in the file “ 1434_Appendix_E_Tables

- Potential Factors.xlsx ” present the Potential Factors. Maximum Achievable Potential Factors as well as the product of Maximum Achievable Potential factors and Realistic Achievable Potential factors (High x Low) are used to demonstrate how Economic potential i s changed to reach Realistic Achievable Potential for residential equipment and non

- equipment measures

.

1434_Appendix_E_T ables-Potential FactorEnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 500 Ygnacio Valley Road

, Suite 450 Walnut Creek, CA 94596 P: 925.482.2000 F: 925.284.3147 About EnerNOC
EnerNOC’s Utility Solutions Consulting team is part of EnerNOC’s Utility Solutions, which provides a comprehensive suite of demand

- side management (DSM) services to utilities and grid operators world wide. Hundreds of utilities have leveraged our technology, our people, and our proven processes to make their energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) initiatives a success. Utilities trust EnerNOC to work with them at every stage of the DSM program lifecycle

– assessing market potential, designing effective programs, implementing those programs, and measuring program
results.

EnerNOC’s Utility Solutions deliver value to our utility clients through two separate practice areas

– Implementation and Co nsulting.

• Our Implementation team leverages EnerNOC’s deep “behind

- the

- meter expertise” and world

- class technology platform to help utilities create and manage DR and EE programs that deliver reliable and cost

- effective energy savings. We focus exclusively on the commercial and industrial (C&I) customer segments, with a track record of successful partnerships that spans more than a decade. Through a focus on high quality, measurable savings, EnerNOC has successfully delivered hundreds of thousands of MWh of energy efficiency for our utility clients, and we have thousands of MW of demand response capacity under management.

• The Consulting team provides expertise and analysis to support a broad range of utility DSM activities, including: potential assessments; end

- use forecasts; integrated resource planning; EE, DR, and smart grid pilot and program design and administration; load research; technology assessments and demonstrations; evaluation, measurement and verification; and regulatory support.

The team has de cades of combined experience in the utility DSM industry. The staff is comprised of professional electrical, mechanical, chemical, civil, industrial, and environmental engineers as well as economists, business planners, project managers,
market researchers , load research professionals, and statisticians. Utilities view EnerNOC’s experts as trusted advisors, and we work together collaboratively to make any DSM initiative a success.