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Tropical Cyclone Report 

Hurricane Ivan 

2 - 24 September 2004 

Stacy R. Stewart 

National Hurricane Center 

16 December 2004 

(updated 27 May 2005) 

Ivan was a classical, long-lived Cape Verde hurricane that reached Category 5 

strength three times on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS). It was also 

the strongest hurricane on record that far south east of the Lesser Antilles. Ivan 

caused considerable damage and loss of life as it passed through the 

Caribbean Sea. 

a. Synoptic History 

Ivan developed from a large tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa on 31 August. Although the 

wave was accompanied by a surface pressure system and an impressive upper-level outflow pattern, 

associated convection was limited and not well organized. However, by early on 1 September, convective 

banding began to develop around the low-level center and Dvorak satellite classifications were initiated later 

that day. Favorable upper-level outflow and low shear environment was conducive for the formation of 

vigorous deep convection to develop and persist near the center, and it is estimated that a tropical depression 

formed around 1800 UTC 2 September. Figure 1 depicts the "best track" of the tropical cyclone's path. The 

wind and pressure histories are shown in Figure 2a and Figure 3a, respectively. Table 1 is a listing of the best 

track positions and intensities. 

Despite a relatively low latitude (9.7°N), development continued and it is estimated that the cyclone became 

Tropical Storm Ivan just 12 h later at 0600 UTC 3 September. Ivan continued on a generally westward motion 

south of 10°N latitude and steadily strengthened, becoming a hurricane at 0600 UTC 5 September centered 

about 1000 n mi east of Tobago in the southern Windward Islands. After reaching hurricane strength, the rate 

of intensification increased dramatically and Ivan underwent an 18 h period of rapid intensification (rate > 30 

kt/24 h). Satellite intensity estimates suggest that the intensity increased 50 kt while the central pressure 

decreased 39 mb during that time and Ivan reached its first peak intensity of 115 kt at 0000 UTC 6 September. 

This made Ivan the southernmost major hurricane on record. However, almost as quickly as Ivan strengthened 

it also weakened -- as much 20 kt over the following 24 h. Conventional and microwave satellite data indicated 

the probable cause of the rapid weakening was due to mid-level dry air that got wrapped into the center of the 

hurricane and eroded the eyewall convection. 

Immediately following the 24 h weakening period, Ivan began a second strengthening phase (Figure 2b) that 

also contained a 12 h period of rapid intensification. During that time, Ivan was under surveillance by U.S. Air 

Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft as the hurricane approached the southern Windward Islands. Reports 

from the aircrew indicated that Ivan had strengthened to a strong category 3 (SSHS) hurricane as the center 

passed about 6 n mi south-southwest of Grenada. The eye diameter at that time was about 10 n mi, and the 

strongest winds raked the southern portion of the island. 

After passing Grenada and into the southeastern Caribbean Sea, the hurricane's intensity leveled off until 

1800 UTC on 8 September when another brief period of rapid intensification ensued. Reconnaissance aircraft 

data indicated Ivan reached its second peak intensity -- 140 kt and category 5 strength (SSHS) -- just 12 h 

later. This was the first of three occasions that Ivan reached the category 5 level. The previous westnorthwestward motion of 14-15 kt gradually decreased while Ivan moved across the central Caribbean Sea 

toward Jamaica. Although a large subtropical ridge to the north remained intact, steering currents weakened 

and Ivan's forward speed decreased to less than 10 kt on 11 September while the hurricane made a turn to 

the west, keeping the center at least 20 n mi offshore the southern coast of the island. As Ivan passed south of

Jamaica it weakened to category 4 strength, in part, due to an eyewall replacement or concentric eyewall 

cycle (Figure 4a). The combination of the westward turn and weakening kept the strongest winds offshore. 

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Later that day Ivan began moving west-northwestward away from Jamaica. Ivan rapidly intensified to category 

5 strength a second time while it remained in a low vertical shear environment, and reached its third peak 

intensity at 1800 UTC 11 September. However, Ivan only maintained its maximum intensity of 145 kt and 

category 5 status for 6 h before it weakened back to a category 4 hurricane on 12 September. The weakening 

trend was short-lived and Ivan re-strengthened to category 5 for its third and final time when it was about 80 n 

mi west of Grand Cayman Island. Although Ivan was weakening while the center passed south of Grand 

Cayman on 12 September, the hurricane still brought sustained winds just below category 5 strength (Table 3) 

to the island. This resulted in widespread wind damage, and a storm surge that completely over swept the 

island except for the extreme northeastern portion. 

On 13 September, Ivan approached a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico and 

turned northwestward at a slower speed of 8-10 kt. As Ivan moved over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the 

combination of the impressive upper-tropospheric outflow that was being enhanced by the southsouthwesterly upper-level flow ahead of an approaching trough and the very warm water in that region 

probably helped the hurricane maintain category 5 strength for an unusually long 30 h. Once again major land 

areas were spared the full force of the hurricane because the 20 n mi diameter eye and strongest winds 

passed through the Yucatan channel just off the extreme western tip of Cuba (Figure 4b). Hurricane force 

conditions were reported across portions of western Cuba, but the effects were far less than what occurred on 

Grenada, Jamaica, and Grand Cayman when Ivan passed those areas. 

Shortly after emerging over the southern Gulf of Mexico early on 14 September, Ivan turned northnorthwestward and then northward. A steady weakening trend also ensued as moderate southwesterly flow on 

the east side of a large mid- to upper-level trough over the central United States and northeastern Mexico 

gradually caused the vertical shear to increase across the hurricane. As Ivan neared the northern U.S. Gulf 

coast, the upper-level wind flow ahead of the trough became more westerly and strengthened to more than 30 

kt, which helped to increase the shear even more and advect dry air into the inner core region. Despite the 

unfavorable environmental conditions, the presence of cooler shelf water just offshore and eyewall 

replacement cycles, Ivan weakened only slowly and made landfall as a 105 kt hurricane (category 3 on the 

SSHS; see Figure 2c and Figure 3b.) at approximately 0650 UTC 16 September, just west of Gulf Shores, 

Alabama. By this time, the eye diameter had increased to 40-50 n mi (Figure 4c), which resulted in some of 

the strongest winds occurring over a narrow area near the southern Alabama-western Florida panhandle 

border. 

After Ivan moved across the barrier islands of Alabama, the hurricane turned north-northeastward across 

eastern Mobile Bay and weakened into a tropical storm 12 h later over central Alabama. A gradual turn to the 

northeast occurred shortly thereafter and Ivan became a tropical depression by 0000 UTC 17 September over 

northeast Alabama. A northeastward motion at 10-14 kt continued for the next 36 h before Ivan merged with a 

frontal system and became an extratropical low over the DelMarVa peninsula around 1800 UTC 18 

September. However, even as a weak tropical depression, Ivan was a prodigious rain and tornado producer 

causing flash floods and tornado damage across much of the southeastern United States. 

Even as an extratropical low, the remnant circulation of Ivan was identifiable in both surface and upper-air 

data. Over the next 3 days, the low moved south and southwestward and eventually crossed the southern 

Florida peninsula from the Atlantic the morning of 21 September and emerged over the southeastern Gulf of 

Mexico later that afternoon. As Ivan moved westward across the warm water of the Gulf, the low began to reacquire warm core, tropical characteristics as showers and thunderstorms started developing near the welldefined low-level circulation center. During the morning of 22 September, Ivan completed a large anticyclonic 

loop and by 1800 UTC reconnaissance aircraft reports indicated that it had become a tropical depression 

again over the central Gulf of Mexico. Ivan regained tropical strength 6 h later when it was located about 120 n 

mi south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Tropical Storm Ivan turned northwestward and made landfall as 

a tropical depression in extreme southwestern Louisiana around 0200 UTC 24 September. After landfall, Ivan 

quickly dissipated later that morning over the upper Texas coastal area about 20 n mi northwest of Beaumont. 

Including its extratropical phase, Ivan existed for 22.5 days and produced a track more than 5600 n mi long. 

b. Meteorological Statistics 

Observations in Ivan (Figure 2 and Figure 3) include satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from 

the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the U. S. Air 

Force Weather Agency (AFWA), as well as flight-level and dropwindsonde observations from flights of the 53rd

Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command (AFRES), and flight-level and 

stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) observations from the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center. 

Microwave satellite imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring 

Mission (TRMM), the NASA QuikSCAT, and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites were 

also helpful in monitoring Ivan. In addition, National Weather Service Doppler radars (Slidell, LA, Mobile, AL, 

and Elgin AFB, FL) were extremely useful for tracking this tropical cyclone. An example is seen in Figure 4, a 

reflectivity image of Ivan shortly after the time of landfall on 16 September from the Mobile WSR-88D Doppler 

radar, which shows the large eye of the hurricane inland over extreme southern Alabama. 

A total of 112 reconnaissance center investigations were made in Ivan - 95 by the U.S. Air Force Reserve and 

17 by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters. In addition, the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft conducted 12 synoptic 

surveillance flights around the periphery of the hurricane. The maximum flight-level (700 mb) wind observed 

was 161 kt at 1917 UTC 11 September, when Ivan was located about 45 n mi west-southwest of the western 

tip of Jamaica. However, during Ivan's traversal across the Caribbean Sea, there were 12 additional flight-level 

wind reports of 150 kt or greater. The lowest aircraft measured pressure was 910 mb at 0005 UTC 12 

September, less than 5 h after the maximum flight-level wind was observed, and also at 2053 UTC 13 

NHC Tropical Cyclone Report Page 2 of 27

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September, which was about 2 h after flight-level winds of 157 kt were measured on two separate flight legs. 

Several research flights were made by NOAA aircraft when Ivan was moving over the Gulf of Mexico. The 

maximum SFMR surface wind observed was 99 kt at 0135 UTC 16 September about 58 n mi south of the 

Alabama coast. In the Caribbean Sea area, the maximum observed wind over land was sustained 130 kt with 

a gust to 149 kt on Grand Cayman Island at 1345 UTC 12 September. A 10-min average wind of 116 kt was 

reported at Pedro Bank, which is about 50 n mi southwest of Kingston. This was also the upper limit of 

reporting range of the wind observing equipment. Doppler radar velocity data indicated wind speeds as high 

as 97 kt may have affected much of Jamaica, especially over the higher elevations. In the United States, the 

strongest winds measured were an unofficial report from a storm chaser near Gulf Shores, Alabama of 

sustained 77 kt with a gust to 99 kt at 0602 UTC 16 September. Also, an unofficial wind gust of 126 kt at 

approximately 0600 UTC 16 September was observed by the sailboat Odalisque anchored in Wolf Bay north 

of Orange Beach, Alabama. The highest official wind report was 76 kt sustained with a gust to 93 kt at the 

Pensacola Naval Air Station, Florida at 0629 UTC 16 September. 

The lowest pressures observed during Ivan's first U.S. landfall were unofficial reports 943.1 mb and 947.9 mb, 

which came from storm chasers based in Fairhope, Alabama. In addition, an automated weather observing 

station (AWOS) on the oil drilling platform Ram Powell-VJ956, located about 70 n mi south of Mobile Bay, 

Alabama (Table 3) reported a sustained wind of 102 kt with a gust to 135 kt at 2256 UTC 15 September at an 

elevation of 400 ft ASL. The instrument failed immediately after this report was obtained and remained 

inoperable for the next 4 days. Aircraft reconnaissance reports around that time suggest that the oil rig was 

located north-northeast of Ivan's center and just outside the radius of maximum winds. 

Although Ivan was weakening as it made its first U.S. landfall, it is estimated to have been a category 3 

hurricane when it reached the Alabama coast. As Ivan neared the U.S. Gulf coast on 15 and 16 September, 

the hurricane came under the surveillance of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D Doppler radars 

located in Slidell, LA, Mobile, AL, and Eglin AFB, FL There was a robust and persistent velocity maximum 

located within vigorous convection in the northeastern quadrant of the outermost concentric eyewall as Ivan 

was coming ashore. For several hours prior to landfall, the velocities were actually higher in this area than in 

the vicinity of the inner eyewall. Within the outer eyewall existed several 1-2 n mi2 patches of 120-122 kt 

inbound Doppler velocities (some individual gates contained 123.4 kt velocities) at around 6,000 ft ASL. Using 

122 kt as being representative of a smoothed peak and applying a reduction factor of 0.85 (standard 

reconnaissance flight-level reduction for 6000 ft) yields a surface estimate of 104 kt. In addition to the Doppler 

radar velocity data, a 700 mb flight-level wind of 120-kt was observed just south of Gulf Shores, AL at 0724 

UTC 16 September (Figure 2c) in the same general area where the aforementioned maximum Doppler radar 

velocities were observed. The 120-kt flight-level wind converts to approximately a 108-kt surface wind using 

the standard 0.90 reduction factor from the 700 mb-level. A blend of those two equivalent surface wind values 

yields an intensity of 105 kt Ivan's first U.S. landfall. This intensity estimate is also consistent with the 99-kt 

SFMR surface wind data that was collected by a NOAA WP-3 aircraft more than 6 h before landfall. In 

addition, assuming a typical outward slope to the eyewall, the narrow band of strongest winds at landfall likely 

occurred over Perdido Key and Perdido Bay, which would have been to the west of the Pensacola Naval Air 

Station and to the east of the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program portable wind tower at Gulf Shores, 

Alabama. 

Ship reports of winds of tropical storm force associated with Ivan are given in Table 2, and selected surface 

observations from land stations and data buoys are given in Table 3, Table 4, and Table 5. With the exception 

of a couple of ships that had sought shelter in the harbors around Grenada, the majority of ships remained 

clear of Ivan's strong winds. 

Heavy rainfall exceeding 10 inches occurred on several of the Caribbean Islands (Table 3 and Table 5) and 

caused extensive freshwater flooding and/or mud slides. Some peak rainfall totals are 16.20 in from Tobago, 

13.33 in from western Cuba, and 12.14 in from Grand Cayman. Across Jamaica, several locations received 

more than 25 in (635 mm) of rainfall. A few of the largest rainfall totals were 28.37 in (720.8 mm) at Ritchies, 

27.92 in (709.4 mm) at Mavis Bank, and 26.83 in (681.5 mm) at both Craighead and Worthy Park. The 

Meteorological Service of Jamaica also "noted that rainfall data representative of a number of stations in 

southern parishes were lost due to damage done to rain gages by Hurricane Ivan." In the United States, 

rainfall totals generally ranged from 3-7 in along a large swath from Alabama and the Florida panhandle 

northeastward across the eastern Tennessee Valley and into the New England area (Figure 6) In fact, when 

Ivan was an extratropical low pressure system, it produced rainfall totals in excess of 7 in as far north as New 

Hampshire and as far south as the Florida east coast. Even as a weakening tropical depression, Ivan 

produced rainfall amounts exceeding 7 in across eastern Texas. However, there were two isolated extreme 

rainfall reports exceeding 15 in -- 15.75 in at television station WEAR-TV3 in Pensacola, Florida and 17.00 in 

at Cruso, North Carolina. Widespread flooding resulted from Ivan's rains, which fell on already saturated 

ground caused by Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Frances that traversed much of the same area in 

August and early September. 

An outbreak of 117 tornadoes -- with the bulk of the tornadoes on 17 September -- developed over a 3 day 

period in the United States, including 37 in Virginia, 25 in Georgia, 18 in Florida, 9 in Pennsylvania, 8 in 

Alabama, 7 in South Carolina, 6 in Maryland, 4 in North Carolina, and 3 in West Virginia. There were 26 

tornadoes reported on 15 September, 32 tornadoes on 16 September, 57 tornadoes on 17 September, and 2 

tornadoes (in Maryland) on 18 September. At least 8 people were killed and 17 injured by the tornadoes. On 

15 September, some of the more significant tornado events occurred -- an F2 tornado occurred near Panama 

City Beach (Bay Co.), FL resulting in 1 death and 7 injuries; a second F2 tornado occurred near Blountstown 

(Calhoun Co.), FL resulting in 4 deaths and 1 injury; a third tornado (intensity undetermined) killed 2 people in 

Panama City, FL a little more than 1 h after the F2 tornado had struck the area. 

Storm surge of 10-15 ft occurred along the coasts from Destin in the Florida panhandle westward to Mobile 

NHC Tropical Cyclone Report Page 3 of 27

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Bay/Baldwin County, Alabama. Storm surge values of 6-9 ft were observed from Destin eastward to St. Marks 

in the Florida Big Bend region. Lesser values of storm surge continued east and southward along the Florida 

west coast with 3.5 ft reported in Hillsborough Bay/Tampa Bay. There was also a possible record observed 

wave height of 52.5 ft reported by the NOAA Buoy 42040 located in the north central Gulf of Mexico south of 

Alabama. In addition, severe storm surge flooding of 8-10 ft with 20-30 ft waves caused more than 5-8 ft of 

water to cover Grand Cayman Island at times. This resulted in the airport and numerous homes being 

completely inundated by sea water. 

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics 

The forces of Ivan were directly responsible for 92 deaths - 39 in Grenada, 25 in United States, 17 in Jamaica, 

4 in Dominican Republic, 3 in Venezuela, 2 in Cayman Islands, and 1 each in Tobago and Barbados. 

Concerning the deaths in the United States, 14 occurred in Florida, 8 in North Carolina, 2 in Georgia, and 1 in 

Mississippi. The breakdown of U.S. deaths by cause is as follows: tornado (7), storm surge (5), fresh water 

floods (4), mud slides (4), wind (3), and surf (2). Ivan was also indirectly responsible for 32 deaths in the 

United States. 

Ivan caused extensive damage to coastal and inland areas of the United States. Portions of the Interstate 10 

bridge system across Pensacola Bay, Florida were severely damaged in several locations as a result of 

severe wave action on top of the 10-15 ft storm surge. As much as a quarter-mile of the bridge collapsed into 

the bay. The U.S Highway 90 Causeway across the northern part of the bay was also heavily damaged. To 

the south of Pensacola, Florida, Perdido Key bore the brunt of Ivan's fury and was essentially leveled. Along 

the Alabama coast, high surf and wind caused extensive damage to Innerarity Point and Orange Beach. In the 

Alabama and Florida panhandle areas, widespread over wash occurred along much of the coastal highway 

system. In addition, extensive beach erosion caused severe damage to or the destruction of numerous 

beachfront homes, as well as apartment and condominium buildings. Some buildings collapsed due to 

scouring of the sand from underneath the foundations caused by the inundating wave action. Thousands of 

homes the three-county coastal area of Baldwin, Escambia, and Santa Rosa were damaged or destroyed. 

Cleanup efforts alone in Escambia County resulted in debris piles that were more than three-quarters of a mile 

long and 70 feet high. In all, Ivan was the most destructive hurricane to affect this area in more than 100 

years. Strong winds also spread well inland damaging homes, and downing tress and power lines. At one 

point, more than 1.8 million people were without power in nine states. 

In addition to the damaged homes and businesses, Ivan also destroyed millions of acres of woodlands and 

forests. The Alabama Forestry Commission found damaged timber valued at about $610 million on 2.7 million 

acres. These figures include 

z Pine pulpwood: 7.5 million cubic feet 

z Hardwood pulpwood: 2.6 million cubic feet 

z Pine sawtimber: 351.5 million board feet 

z Hardwood sawtimber: 493 million board feet. 

In the 200,000-acre Blackwater Forest, just east of Pensacola in the western Florida panhandle, more than 1.5 

million board feet of timber were downed across 185,000 acres. 

Ivan's effects were not just limited to coastal and inland areas. Offshore oil industry operations in the Gulf of 

Mexico were severely disrupted, and several oil drilling platforms and pipelines sustained varying degrees of 

damage. The normal daily flow of 475,000 barrels of oil and 1.8 billion cubic feet of natural gas, plus refining 

operations, were disrupted for more than 4 weeks. A total of 12 large pipelines and 6 drilling platforms 

sustained major damage; another 7 platforms were completely destroyed. 

A total of 686,700 claims were filed and the American Insurance Services Group estimates (14 December 

2004 re-survey) that insured losses in the United States from Hurricane Ivan totaled $7.11 billion, of which 

more than $4 billion occurred in Florida alone. Using a two-to-one ratio of insured damages yields an 

estimated U.S. loss of approximately $14.2 billion. In addition to the insured losses that occurred, the U.S. 

Naval Air Station at Pensacola, Florida sustained damage losses of $800-$900 million. 

In the Caribbean region, extensive damage occurred to homes, buildings and other structures. The following 

are brief synopses of the reports received from some of the Caribbean islands: 

Barbados 

More than 176 homes completely destroyed; many homes lost their roofs; most coastal roads severely 

damaged due to erosion caused by the storm surge and wave action. 

Cayman 

95 percent of the homes and other buildings (which generally follow South Florida's building codes) 

were damaged or destroyed. 

Cuba 

Roofs were torn off homes in extreme western Pinar del Rio Province; flooding damaged houses, and 

fishing and farm installations; mud slides cut off at least two towns. 

Grenada 

At least 80 percent of the 100,000 residents were without power; more than 14,000 homes were 

damaged or destroyed; 80 percent of the nutmeg trees were destroyed; a 17th century prison was also 

damaged allowing many of the inmates to briefly escape during the height of the storm; Ivan was the 

worst hurricane to strike the island since Hurricane Janet in 1955. 

NHC Tropical Cyclone Report Page 4 of 27

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Jamaica 

At least 47,000 homes were damaged, of which 5,600 were completely destroyed; most of the islands 

utilities were damaged. 

St. Vincent/Grenadines 

50 homes severely damaged with 2 homes washed away into the sea; more than two-thirds of 

residents lost power. 

Tobago 

At least 1 home collapsed and fell into the ocean; at least 45 homes lost their roofs; numerous trees 

and utility were blown down; 20 villages suffered various forms of damage 

In the Caribbean Sea region, the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) estimates the damage at more than 

US$3 billion -- US$1.85 billion in the Cayman Islands, US$815 million in Grenada, US$360 million in Jamaica, 

US$40 million in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and US$2.6 million in St Lucia. No damage estimates were 

available from any of the other Windward Islands countries, Venezuela, or Cuba. 

d. Forecast and Warning Critique 

Average official track errors (with the number of cases in parentheses) for Ivan were 24 (63), 47 (61), 79 (59), 

108 (56), 161 (52), 222 (48), and 289 (44) n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, 

respectively. In comparison, the longer-term average official track errors for the 10-yr period 1994-2003[1] are 

44, 78, 112, 146, 217, 248, and 319 n mi. Table 6 contains the average errors from various numerical track 

forecast models for Ivan. The average NHC official track forecast (OFCL) errors for Ivan were better than the 

10-yr average throughout the 120 h forecast cycle, especially through 72 h. However, most of the various 

numerical track forecast models, like the UKMET and FSU Superensemble (FSSE) models outperformed the 

NHC official track forecast at most times. On average, the FSSE model significantly outperformed the NHC 

official forecast at all times. Average official intensity errors were 9, 12, 13, 12, 15, 24 and 36 kt for the 12, 24, 

36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively. For comparison, the average official intensity errors over the 

10-yr period 1994-2003 are 6, 10, 12, 15, 19, 20, and 21 kt, respectively. These intensity errors were greater 

than average at 96 and 120 h due to rapid intensification and greater than forecast intensities that occurred 

over the Caribbean Sea. Synoptic-scale analyses produced by the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) 

indicate that Ivan essentially remained underneath a 200 mb ridge axis as the hurricane traversed the 

Caribbean Sea. This resulted in implied relatively low 850-200 mb vertical wind shear values ( < 10 kt in many 

times periods) over the inner core region and also provided favorable upper-level outflow channels to the north 

and south. However, the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model failed to capture 

both the early rapid intensification period and the lengthy period of category 4 and 5 strength. This may be due 

to the way the SHIPS model assesses the vertical shear across a tropical cyclone. During the period 7-14 

September when significant intensification occurred, the SHIPS model assessed the vertical shear on 

numerous occasions to be 15-20 kt from a westerly direction. Typically when alleged westerly shear of this 

magnitude is present, little or no strengthening occurs and, more often, weakening transpires. The westerly 

vertical shear calculated by the SHIPS model may have been due, in part, to its inability to separate the strong 

upper-level outflow from the environmental flow in which the cyclone was embedded. 

Official track forecasts had, in general, a persistent right-of-track bias for the first 11 days of Ivan's existence 

as a tropical cyclone (Figure 5a). The official track forecasts relied heavily on the global model forecasts, 

which prematurely eroded the large and strong subtropical ridge to the north of Ivan that extended well 

westward across the Bahamas, Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, several of the GFS model forecast 

cycles consistently eroded the ridge across Bahamas and took Ivan well to the east of Florida, even as the 

hurricane was approaching Jamaica. The westward jog that Ivan made on 11 September appears to be, at 

least in part, the result of a mid- to upper-level cold low to the north of Hispaniola that moved slowly 

southwestward rather than weakening and lifting out to the northeast as some of the models had been 

forecasting. Despite the early right bias, once Ivan moved into the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the track 

forecasts gradually narrowed down the likely landfall region of the western Florida panhandle and Alabama 

coasts (Figure 5b). Table 7 lists all of the watches and warnings issued for Ivan. 

A hurricane watch was issued for the central U.S. Gulf coast more than 51 h prior to landfall on the Alabama 

coast. A hurricane warning was issued for the same area less than 42 h prior to landfall. Over the 72 h period 

leading up to the first U.S. landfall, there was a spread of only 95 n mi between the westernmost and 

easternmost forecast tracks. In fact, more than 75% of those forecasts targeted the Alabama coast as the 

most likely area where landfall was expected to occur. The result of these forecasts was that Ivan made 

landfall well within the area covered by the hurricane watch and warning. 

Acknowledgments 

NWS/WFOs Houston/Galveston, Huntsville, Jacksonville, Key West, Lake Charles, Mobile, New Orleans 

(Slidell), Tallahassee, and Tampa Bay, and the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and the NOAA 

Southeast River Forecast Center contributed many of the observations contained in this report. Amateur Radio 

(HAM) operators throughout the Caribbean region and those working as part of the National Hurricane 

Center's WX4NHC Hurricane WatchNet team ( http://www.fiu.edu/orgs/w4ehw/) were indispensable in 

providing critical reports as Ivan moved through the Windward Islands and across the Caribbean Sea. 

[1]Errors given for the 96 and 120 h periods are averages over the three-year period 2001-3.

NHC Tropical Cyclone Report Page 5 of 27

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Table 1: Best track for Hurricane Ivan, 2-24 September 2004.

Date/Time 

(UTC)

Position

Pressure

(mb)

Wind 

Speed 

(kt)

Lat. Stage

(°N)

Lon.

(°W)

 02 / 1800 9.7 27.6 1009 25 tropical depression

 03 / 0000 9.7 28.7 1007 30 "

 03 / 0600 9.7 30.3 1005 35 tropical storm

 03 / 1200 9.5 32.1 1003 40 "

 03 / 1800 9.3 33.6 1000 45 "

 04 / 0000 9.1 35.0 999 45 "

 04 / 0600 8.9 36.5 997 50 "

 04 / 1200 8.9 38.2 997 50 "

 04 / 1800 9.0 39.9 994 55 "

 05 / 0000 9.3 41.4 991 60 "

 05 / 0600 9.5 43.4 987 65 hurricane

 05 / 1200 9.8 45.1 977 85 "

 05 / 1800 10.2 46.8 955 110 "

 06 / 0000 10.6 48.5 948 115 "

 06 / 0600 10.8 50.5 950 110 "

 06 / 1200 11.0 52.5 955 110 "

 06 / 1800 11.3 54.4 969 90 "

 07 / 0000 11.2 56.1 964 90 "

 07 / 0600 11.3 57.8 965 95 "

 07 / 1200 11.6 59.4 963 100 "

 07 / 1800 11.8 61.1 956 105 "

 08 / 0000 12.0 62.6 950 115 "

 08 / 0600 12.3 64.1 946 120 "

 08 / 1200 12.6 65.5 955 120 "

 08 / 1800 13.0 67.0 950 120 "

 09 / 0000 13.3 68.3 938 130 "

 09 / 0600 13.7 69.5 925 140 "

 09 / 1200 14.2 70.8 919 140 "

 09 / 1800 14.7 71.9 921 130 "

 10 / 0000 15.2 72.8 923 130 "

 10 / 0600 15.7 73.8 930 125 "

 10 / 1200 16.2 74.7 934 125 "

 10 / 1800 16.8 75.8 940 120 "

 11 / 0000 17.3 76.5 926 135 "

 11 / 0600 17.4 77.6 923 130 "

 11 / 1200 17.7 78.4 925 125 "

 11 / 1800 18.0 79.0 920 145 "

 12 / 0000 18.2 79.6 910 145 "

 12 / 0600 18.4 80.4 915 135 "

 12 / 1200 18.8 81.2 919 135 "

 12 / 1800 19.1 82.1 920 130 "

 13 / 0000 19.5 82.8 916 140 "

 13 / 0600 19.9 83.5 920 140 "

 13 / 1200 20.4 84.1 915 140 "

 13 / 1800 20.9 84.7 912 140 "

 14 / 0000 21.6 85.1 914 140 "

 14 / 0600 22.4 85.6 924 140 "

 14 / 1200 23.0 86.0 930 125 "

 14 / 1800 23.7 86.5 931 120 "

 15 / 0000 24.7 87.0 928 120 "

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 15 / 0600 25.6 87.4 935 120 "

 15 / 1200 26.7 87.9 939 115 "

 15 / 1800 27.9 88.2 937 115 "

 16 / 0000 28.9 88.2 931 110 "

 16 / 0600 30.0 87.9 943 105 "

 16 / 1200 31.4 87.7 965 70 "

 16 / 1800 32.5 87.4 975 50 tropical storm

 17 / 0000 33.8 86.5 986 30 tropical depression

 17 / 0600 34.7 85.7 991 25 "

 17 / 1200 35.4 84.0 994 20 "

 17 / 1800 36.2 82.3 996 20 "

 18 / 0000 37.0 80.5 999 20 "

 18 / 0600 37.7 78.5 998 15 "

 18 / 1200 38.4 76.7 1000 15 "

 18 / 1800 38.0 75.5 1002 25 extratropical

 19 / 0000 37.5 74.0 1003 35 "

 19 / 0600 36.0 74.0 1005 35 "

 19 / 1200 34.5 74.5 1008 35 "

 19 / 1800 32.8 75.8 1008 35 "

 20 / 0000 31.0 77.5 1008 35 "

 20 / 0600 29.0 78.5 1008 35 "

 20 / 1200 27.5 78.7 1009 30 "

 20 / 1800 26.4 79.1 1009 25 "

 21 / 0000 26.1 79.7 1009 25 "

 21 / 0600 25.9 80.6 1009 25 "

 21 / 1200 25.8 81.7 1009 25 "

 21 / 1800 25.2 82.8 1010 25 low

 22 / 0000 24.8 84.1 1010 25 "

 22 / 0600 25.1 86.1 1010 25 "

 22 / 1200 26.0 87.3 1010 25 "

 22 / 1800 26.5 88.6 1008 30 tropical depression

 23 / 0000 27.1 89.5 1007 35 tropical storm

 23 / 0600 27.9 91.0 1007 35 "

 23 / 1200 28.9 92.2 998 50 "

 23 / 1800 29.2 92.7 1003 40 "

 24 / 0000 29.6 93.2 1003 30 tropical depression

 24 / 0600 30.1 94.2 1009 25 "

 24 / 1200 dissipated inland

 12 / 0000 18.2 79.6 910 145 minimum pressure

 13 / 2100 21.2 84.8 910 140 minimum pressure

 07 / 2130 11.9 61.8 952 110 closest point of approach, 6 n mi south-southwest of 

Prickly Point, Grenada

 11 / 0330 17.4 77.2 924 130 closest point of approach, 20 n mi south of Portland 

Point, Jamaica

 12 / 1415 18.9 81.5 920 130 closest point of approach, 22 n mi south-southwest of 

Georgetown, GCI

 14 / 0100 21.7 85.2 916 140 closest point of approach, 15 n mi southwest of Cabo 

San Antonio, Cuba

 16 / 0650 30.2 87.9 946 105 1st U.S. landfall near Pine Beach, AL, or 9 n mi westsouthwest of Gulf Shores, AL

 24 / 0200 29.8 83.6 1004 30 2nd U.S. landfall near Holly Beach, LA, or 10 n mi 

west of Cameron, LA

Table 2: Selected ship and drifting buoy reports with winds of at least 34 kt for Hurricane Ivan, 2-24 

September 2004.

Ship Name or Call Date/Time Lat. Lon. Wind dir/speed Pressure 

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Sign (UTC) (°N) (°W) (deg/kt) (mb)

13009 04 / 1100 8.0 38.0 - - - / 36 - - - 

MV Son Monoy 08 / 0359 10.7 66.2 320 / 40G50 - - - 

ZCDE4 08 / 1200 11.6 62.7 120 / 47 1007.2 

WDA406 11 / 0600 15.9 77.5 230 / 37 1002.1 

ATPN 12 / 0400 16.8 80.2 010 / 46 1005.0 

P3JA8 12 / 1500 17.7 81.8 250 / 53 997.5 

A8CO2 13 / 1800 18.3 85.5 260 / 35 1006.8 

A8CO2 13 / 2100 18.3 84.9 250 / 35 1005.9 

C6DM2 14 / 0000 17.9 86.8 280 / 44 1002.0 

LAZK4 14 / 1000 22.6 88.8 020 / 44 999.0 

WPPO 14 / 1400 25.5 84.2 090 / 45 1004.0 

HZRX 14 / 1500 24.5 83.3 110 / 52 1004.3 

WPPO 14 / 1700 25.3 83.9 120 / 47 1004.0 

HZRX 14 / 1800 24.1 82.7 120 / 52 1004.4 

WPPO 14 / 2300 24.7 83.4 140 / 52 1004.2 

H3SM 15 / 0900 27.1 90.2 020 / 39 999.7 

LANT5 15 / 1200 24.2 85.1 180 / 43 1005.0 

H3SM 15 / 1500 27.0 90.0 360 / 50 963.0 

H3SM 15 / 1800 27.0 90.2 330 / 43 963.7 

SPLL1 15 / 1800 28.9 90.5 010 / 39 1002.2 

H3SM 15 / 2100 27.0 90.2 320 / 46 998.0 

H3SM 16 / 0000 27.0 90.2 290 / 42 1001.3 

C6YC 19 / 0600 37.5 74.5 010 / 37 1010.5 

DHBN 19 / 1200 40.4 70.7 020 / 35 1016.0 

A8CF2 20 / 0600 34.7 72.3 020 / 37 1017.0 

VRXL6 20 / 0600 33.4 73.0 200 / 35 1015.5 

WGXO 20 / 0600 29.5 79.6 040 / 37 1011.0 

Table 3: Selected surface observations for Hurricane Ivan, 2-24 September 2004.

Minimum 

Sea-level 

Pressure

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

(kt)

Location

Date/

Time

(UTC)

Press.

(mb)

Date/ 

Timea

(UTC)

Sust.

Windb

(kts)

Peak

Gust 

(kts)

Storm 

Surgec

(ft)

Storm 

Tided 

(ft)

Rain 

(storm 

total) 

(in)

Windward Islands

Dominica

Hewanorra (TLPL) 07/1700+ 37 

Grenada

Point Salines (TGPY) 07/2000 45 81 

07/2100 64 101 

07/2300 49 67 

Jamaica

Craighead 26.83 

Kingston (MKJP) 11/0129 991.5 11/0217* 55 

Mavis Bank 27.92 

Negril Point 11/???? 986.8 

Pedro Bank 11/???? 979.5 11/???? 116 

Ritchies 28.37 

Rose Hill 25.80 

South Central coastal 

areas 4-6 

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Worthy Park 26.83 

Cayman Islands

Cayman Brac 12/0300 997.0 12/0200 44 58 4.92 

Grand Cayman 12/1345 970.0 12/1500 130 149 8-10 12.14 

Cuba

Cabo de San Antonio 14/0050# 96 104 

Cuba - Francia (78309) 14/0000 1001.6 14/0043 45 56 10.16 

La Fe (78321) 13/1850 1001.0 13/1248 51 64 6.26 

La Palma (78316) 14/0100 1000.3 14/0620 49 61 4.43 

Isabel Rubio (78313) 14/0200 990.1 14/0200 61 76 13.33 

Nueva Gerona (Isle of 

Youth) 13/1800 1000.1 13/1457 55 69 5.66 

Pinar del Rio (78315) 13/2310 997.7 14/0140 54 67 7.69 

Pinar del Rio Prov. (s. 

coast) 6-12 

P.R.S. Diego (78317) 13/2340 1001.5 14/0140 42 52 5.55 

Punta del Este (78324) 13/2200 1000.7 14/0030 49 61 4.75 

San Juan y Martinez 

(78314) 14/0100 996.0 13/2340 47 59 5.69 

Santa Lucia (78312) 14/0200 994.7 14/0220 61 76 6.00 

Alabama

Alabaster (KEET) 17/0053 991.7 6.00 

Alberta 6.85 

Alexander City (KALX) 16/1500 36 

Andalusia (HAM Radio) 9.96 

Anniston (ANNA1) 7.64 

Anniston (KANB) 17/0053 991.5 

Ariton Co-op (ARTA1) 5.32 

Baldwin County 10-15 

Bellwood Co-op (BELA1) 5.48 

Bessie 5.81 

Birmingham (KBHM) 17/0053 989.6 16/1653 42 9.81 

Blakely (Co-op (BLKG1) 6.50 

Blount Springs 5.29 

Brookley / Mobile (KBFM) 16/0656 956.0 

Coden 6.30 

Cullman (K3A1) 16/1740+ 39 

Daleville Co-op (DALA1) 5.82 

Daphne 7.50 

Dothan (KDHN) 16/0752 1000.6 16/1900 38 47 5.94 

Elba Co-op (EBBA1) 5.48 

Evergreen (EVRA1) 7.55 

Fairhope (awis) 16/0418 63 

Flat Rock (FLRA1) 8.04 

Florence (C0168) 17/0050+ 37 

Fort Payne 6NE (LRWA1) 7.30 

Fort Payne (K4A9) 16/1920 45 

Gadsden (KGAD) 16/1735 37 

Geneva Co-op (GVAA1) 8.20 

Grand Bay (awis) 16/0517 62 

Helena 4.72 

Huntsville (KHSV) 16/2353 994.3 16/2153 40 

Huntsville (KMDQ) 16/2242+ 35 

Jackson Shoals 4.05 

Ketona 9.69 

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Lauderdale (RLDM6) 16/1113 47 

Lower Bryant Landing 

(NOS) 3.4 

Manchester 4.35 

Maxwell AFB (KMXF) 16/1755 989.9 16/1257 31 57 9.78 

Millers Ferry (MRFA1) 11.66 

Mobile (KMOB) 16/0725 964.4 16/0644 51 65 5.56 

Mobile (2S KMOB) 9.90 

Mobile (3S KMOB) 6.30 

Mobile (7S KMOB) 6.53 

Mobile (10S KMOB) 8.00 

Mobile County 6-9 

Montgomery (KMGM) 16/1753 989.5 16/1353 32 50 

Muscle Shoals (KMSL) 16/2253 998.7 16/2110 40 

Newton Co-op (NEWA1) 5.47 

Ozark / Ft. Rucker 

(KOZR) 16/1055 999.8 16/0955 38 6.10 

Ram Powell VK-956 Oil 

Rig - 400 ft elev. (29.05°N 

88.10°W)

15/2256* 952.6 15/2256* 102 135 

Robertsdale 9.35 

Selma (SELA1) 8.87 

Semmes (awis) 16/0830 967.5 16/0500 49 51 5.00 

Silverhill (3S) 10.16 

Spanish Fort 16/0800 51 8.00 

Talladega 5.60 

Tannehill 9.76 

Troy (KTOI) 16/1755 994.7 16/1128+ 37 

Trussville (TRSA1) 8.97 

Tuscaloosa (KTCL) 16/1353 996.7 16/1453+ 43 

Valley Head (VYHA1) 8.27 

Wing 6NE (OPNA1) 16/1022+ 58 

Wedowee 5.20 

Florida

Apalachicola (KAAF) 4.11 

Baker (BAKF1) 10.41 

Bay County 8-10 

Big Pine Key 2.12 

Bristol Co-op (BRLF1) 7.00 

Bruce Co-op (BRUF1) 7.05 

Chipley Co-op (CHPF1) 5.42 

Crestview (CRVF1) 7.68 

Crestview (HAM radio) 8.40 

Cross City (KCTY) 16/1918 31 

Dixie County 4 

Eglin AFB (KVPS) 16/0755 991.6 16/0755 46 70 7.43 

Escambia County 10-15 

Franklin County 3-5 

Ft. Walton (HAM radio) 6.06 

Gulf County (St. Joseph 

State Park) 4-6 

Hillsborough Co. (Hills. 

Bay) 3.5 

Huntsville (KHSV) 3.73 

Jefferson County 4 

Key West (KEYW) 14/0903 36 46 1.11 

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Key West (KEYW - 

Atlantic) 1.0 

Levy County (Cedar Key) 1.91 

Lowry Mill Co-op 

(LOWA1) 7.33 

Marianna Co-op (MALF1) 5.28 

Mayport Naval Stn. 

(KNRB) 21/0355+ 34 

Milligan (MLGF1) 11.31 

Mossy Head Co-op 

(MHDF1) 9.26 

Munson 6.50 

Nettles Island (NETF1) 7.62 

Niceville 6.55 

Okaloosa County 6-9 

Panama City (KPFN) 16/0853 999.9 16/1700 30 60 

Pensacola (KPNS) 16/0645 970.2 16/0650 67 87 

Pensacola NAS (KNPA) 16/0656 965.8 16/0629 76 93 8.00 

Pensacola (WEAR-TV) 15.79 

Perry (K40J) 16/1749 41 

Saint Augustine (KSGJ) 21/0300 36 

Santa Rosa County 10-15 

Sarasota (KSRQ) 16/1255 30 

Seminole 5NE 8.10 

Tallahassee (KTLH) 16/1605 33 47 

Taylor County 4 

Walton County 8-10 

Wakulla County 4-5 

Georgia

Albany (KABY) 16/1803 36 

Athens (KAHN) 16/2333 39 

Atlanta - Falcon (KFFC) 17/0122 34 

Atlanta - Hatrsfield (KATL) 16/2357 39 

Atlanta - McCollum 

(KRYY) 16/2347 35 

Atlanta - Peachtree 

(KPDK) 16/2125 38 

Byromville (BYRG1) 16/2105 34 

Canton / Cherokee Co. 

(K47A) 16/2122 35 

Chickamauga (FTOG1) 7.75 

Clayton 4NE (TULG1) 18/0206 43 

Clayton 10W (TCLG1) 7.87 

Columbus (KCSG) 16/2151 997.1 16/2227+ 39 

Elberton (K27A) 17/0101 37 

Ellijay 7NW (MTNG1) 7.24 

Fort Benning AAF (KLSF) 16/2355 36 

Gainesville (KGVL) 16/2253 39 

Helen (HELG1) 8.57 

Helen 7N (BRSG1) 17/0306 61 

Hurst 3SE (HSTG1) 8.42 

Lafayette 5SW (LFYG1) 7.28 

Lagrange (KLGC) 16/2140 34 

Lawrenceville (KLZU) 16/2150 40 

Mountain City 2N 

(MTCG1) 7.10 

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Nacoochee (NACG1) 9.20 

Pine Mountain (PIMG1) 7.80 

Preston Co-op (PRSG1) 5.57 

Rome (KRMG) 17/0553 994.5 

Suches 6NW (TCCG1) 17/0005 39 

Tallula Falls (TLUG1) 7.88 

Thomaston - Upson 

(KOPN) 16/2101 38 

Titus (TUSG1) 9.27 

Valdosta (KVLD) 16/1907 37 

Washington 5NW 

(WSNG1) 17/202 35 

Winder (KWDR) 16/2240 39 

Kentucky

Greenup (GNUK2) 6.26 

Louisiana

Barataria Bay 15/1700 44 

Bootheville (KBVE) 15/1551 31 42 

Bootheville - LSU Citrus 

AG 16/0000 52 1.05 

Buras 2.50 

Calcasieu Pass - East 

Jetty 1.7 

Cameron Heliport (K7R5) 23/2325 34 

Cameron Prairie NWR 4.14 

Cocodrie 16/0000 36 

Deridder 3.00 

Elmer 2SW 3.75 

Franklin 3NW 3.04 

Hackberry 8SSW 

(HAKL1) 24/0140 36 

Galliano - Little Lake 15/2300 41 

Grand Isle - East Point 1.7 

Laffitte - Lake Salvador 16/0300 34 

Lake Charles (KLCH) 23/2346 1012.5 24/0217 23 30 1.16 

Lake Pontchartrain - 

Mandeville 16/0030 30 33 

Lake Pontchartrain - mid 

lake 16/0330 35 46 

Marco Polo GC608 Oil 

Rig - 300 ft elev. (27.36°N 

90.19°W)

15/2100& 54 

New Orleans (KNEW) 16/0125 994.2 16/0206 41 48 0.08 

New Orleans (KMSY) 16/0644 998.0 15/2138 33 40 Trace 

Pointe a la Hache - 

northeast Bay Gardene 16/0400 60 

Rockefeller NWR 3.22 

Slidell (KASD) 16/0147 994.2 16/0011 32 37 0.26 

SW Pass (NOS) 3.0 

Maryland

AP259 APRSWXNET 

(39.0°N 76.3°W) 18/1700 36 

Patuxent NAS (KNHK) 18/2355 35 

Mississippi

Biloxi Bay - NOAA/NOS 3.2 

Biloxi Harbor - Pointe 

Cadet 16/0245 47 68 

Columbus (KGTR) 16/1815+ 46 

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Columbus AFB (KCBM) 16/1955 995.8 16/1855 35 

Gautier - U.S. Hwy 90 16/0700* 51 

Gholson 8W (GHLM6) 5.35 

Gulfport (KGPT) 16/0703* 983.7 16/0059* 40 53 1.70 

Keesler AFB (KBIX) 16/0655 982.9 16/0644 42 62 3.28 

NAS Meridian (KNMM) 16/1555 992.0 16/1255 30 51 

Ocean Springs - Ft. 

Bayou 16/0415 43 

Orange Grove - Interstate 

10 16/0715 46 

Pascagoula 3NNE 5.70 

Pascagoula / Jackson Co. 

EOC (top of 2-story 

building)

16/0600 76 6.29 

Pascagoula (KPQL) 16/0536* 975.6 15/2349* 37 51 1.15 

Pass Christian - USCG 

Merril Shell Bank 

Lighthouse

16/0500 64 

Van Cleave (BCVM6) 3.73 

Waveland - NOAA/NOS 16/0242 34 49 3.4 

Waveland - Hancock Co. 

EOC 16/0430 53 

New Hampshire

Jaffrey (AFN) 7.30 

New Jersey

Columbia (CMBN4) 5.50 

New York

Deposit (DEPN6) 5.37 

Fishs Eddy (FSHN6) 5.40 

Stuyvesant 5N (STYN6) 5.11 

Windham (WDMN6) 5.45 

North Carolina

Andrew - Murphy (KRHP) 17/0524 39 

AP341 RAWS (36.1°N 

81.9°W) 17/0330 41 

Asheville (KAVL) 17/0535+ 42 

Black Mtn (MMTN7) 9.05 

Boone (KTNB) 17/0801 45 

Burgaw 11E (BKIN7) 17/2213 36 

Burlington (KBUY) 17/1727 44 

C1587 RAWS (35.8°N 

78.9°W) 17/1746 39 

Canton 10 SSW (SNBN7) 8.92 

Charlotte Int'l (KCLT) 17/0851 35 

Cruso 17.00 

Cullowhee (CUWN7) 17/0610+ 42 

Daniel Ridge (DNRN7) 8.25 

Elizabeth City (KECG) 18/0254 36 

Fayetteville 11WNW 

(FBRN7) 17/2007+ 36 

Fayetteville (KFAY) 17/2023+ 41 

Guion Farms AFS 

(GUIN7) 17/0610 44 

H0002 RAWS (36.4°N 

81.5°W) 17/0510 37 

Hawk - IFLOWS (HAKN7) 7.12 

Highlands (C0930) 17/0155 41 

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Highlands - IFLOWS 

(HILN7) 8.16 

Highlands (TVA) 11.83 

Hogback (IHBN7) 8.92 

Jacksonville (KOAJ) 17/1835 35 

Jefferson (KGEV) 18/0441+ 41 

Jonas Ridge (JSRN7) 8.95 

Kill Devil Hills (KFFA) 19/0900 38 

Kure Beach 3W (SUNN7) 18/0058 39 

Laurel Springs (LRLN7) 17/0810* 51 

Mackall AAF (KHFF) 17/1555 34 

Manteo (KMQI) 18/1100+ 37 

New Bern (KEWN) 18/0107+ 35 

Plumtree (PLMN7) 8.08 

Purlear 2N (RVZN7) 18/0810+ 42 

Raleigh - Durham (KRDU) 17/1951 36 

Rich Mountain (RCMN7) 8.08 

Rosman 6E (CFFN7) 7.83 

Shallotte 7NE (NATN7) 17/2259 38 

Shelby (KEHO) 17/0720 35 

Spruce Pine 3SE 

(SPPN7) 7.20 

TS156 RAWS (35.8°N 

82.7°W) 17/0908 42 

Whiteville (WHIN7) 17/2045 35 

Yancey (YNCN7) 7.50 

Ohio

Albany (ABNO1) 8.53 

Pennsylvania

Acmetonia (ACMP1) 7.51 

Ansonville (ANSP1) 7.29 

Blakeslee (TBYP1) 8.20 

Cristy Manor 2SE 

(CRCP1) 7.15 

Elimsport (ELIP1) 7.60 

Fort Indiantown Gap 

(FIGP1) 7.90 

Hugos Corners (HGCP1) 7.40 

Loyalsockville (LOYP1) 5.40 

Pine Grove 1SW 

(PGVP1) 7.70 

Scrub Oak (SCBP1) 8.32 

South Carolina

Anderson (KAND) 17/0040 38 

Greenville (KGMU) 17/0253 37 

Greenwood (KGRD) 17/0556 34 

Greer (KGSP) 17/0303 40 

North Myrtle Beach 

(KCRE) 17/2208 38 

Tennessee

Crossville (CSST1) 17/0606 34 

Burns (BURT1) 17/0406+* 56 

Charleston (CHTT1) 7.39 

Chattanooga (KCHA) 17/0853 994.7 

Chickamauga Dam 

(CKDT1) 7.63 

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Coker Creek (CCKT1) 17/06744+ 42 

Dayton (DAYT1) 7.65 

Decatur (DECT1) 7.86 

Lenoir City 5NW (LCLT1) 17/0505 39 

Lewisburg (LSBT1) 17/0106 35 

McDonald 11.03 

Morristown 3NNE 

(HCOT1) 17/0505 36 

Pikeville 7NW (BLDT1) 17/0105 41 

Sweetwater (SWET1) 8.99 

Watts Bardam (WBOT1) 7.52 

Whitwell 7SE (PCFT1) 16/2106 51 

Texas

Beaumont (KBPT) 24/0425 1008.8 24/0339 23 30 1.05 

Beckville (BEKT2) 7.86 

Bon Weir 2.70 

Eagle Point - Galveston 

Bay 1.7 

Galveston Pier 21 1.6 

Houston Hobby (KHOU) 23/2156 1012.9 23/2344 23 0.62 

Jamaica Bch Co-op 

(JBHT2) 23/2230 1012.7 22/0932 29 Trace 

Matagorda Island (MIRT2) 24/0512 47 

Sabine Pass North 1.4 

Sam Rayburn Reservoir 3.49 

Silsbee 4N 2.00 

Steinhagen Lake (TBLT2) 7.07 

Toledo Bend Reservoir 2.34 

Weches - Houston Co. 1.92 

Virginia

Big Meadows (BGMV2) 5.72 

Dulles / Wash. Int'l (KIAD) 17/2212+ 37 

Hillsville (KHLX) 17/0900 42 

Hot Springs (KHSP) 18/0500 34 

Langley AFB (KLFI) 19/0155 36 

Leesburg (KJYO) 18/1541 36 

Manassas (KHEF) 18/1955 38 

Martinsville (KMTV) 18/0520 34 

Meadows of Dan (AP852) 18/1815 41 

Melfa (KMFV) 18/0420 37 

Norfolk Int'l (KORF) 19/0351+ 35 

Norfolk Naval Stn (KNGU) 19/0755 30 38 

Oceana NAS (KNTU) 18/2256 37 

Reagan / Wash. Int'l 

(KDCA) 18/2051+ 35 

Richmond Int'l (KRIC) 18/0012+ 35 

Stafford (KRMN) 18/1720 37 

Strasburg (STGV2) 5.50 

TS121 RAWS (37.9°N 

81.9°W) 17/2214 34 

West Virginia

Buckhannon (KW22) 18/0200+ 42 

Charleston (KCRW) 17/2154 32 

Clarksburg (KCKB) 18/0053+ 37 

Gallipois Dam (GALW2) 5.94 

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Moundsville (MOUW2) 7.68 

dStorm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum (1929 mean sea level).

aDate/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed.

bExcept as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and land-based ASOS reports are 2 min; 

buoy averaging periods are 8 min. 

cStorm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.

dStorm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum (1929 mean sea level).

+Last of several occurrences

#Approximate time

*

Instrument failed after report

&30-minute averaging period

Table 4: Selected fixed buoy and C-MAN observations for Hurricane Ivan, 2-24 September 2004.

Minimum 

Sea-level 

Pressure

Maximum Surface Wind 

Speed 

(kt)

Location

Date/ 

Time 

(UTC)

Press.

(mb)

Date/ 

Timea

(UTC)

Sust.

Windb

(kts)

Peak 

Gust 

(kts)

Storm 

Surgec

(ft)

Storm 

Tided 

(ft)

Rain 

(storm 

total) 

(in)

C-MAN

BURL1 (28.9°N 

89.4°W) 15/2300 983.6 15/2310 72 87 

16/0000 69 

15/2300 68 

23/0500 1013.8 23/0300 35 

23/0500 35 

CDRF1 (29.1°N 

83.0°W) 16/1217 31 

CLKN7 (34.6°N 

76.5°W) 18/0228 34 

CHLV2 (36.9°N 

75.7°W) 18/0400 1001.8 18/0350 38 48 

18/2230 39 45 

19/0500 39 45 

DPIA1 (30.2°N 

88.1°W) 16/0705 952.7 16/0405 63 89 

16/0505 63 

DUCN7 (36.2°N 

75.7°W) 18/0330 33 47 

19/0300 1011.4 19/0400 38 

GDIL1 (29.3°N 

90.0°W) 16/0000 994.2 15/2310 46 61 

16/0200 43 

GLPT2 (29.3°N 

94.8°W) 23/2200 1012.2 22/0900 32 1.6 

ILDL1 (29.0°N 

90.5°W) 23/0900 1013.7 23/0900 35 

MRSL1 (29.4°N 

92.1°W) 23/1200 1012.0 23/1200 32 38 

SANF1 (24.5°N 

81.9°W) 13/1200 1010.9 13/1200 36 42 

SAUF1 (29.9°N 

81.3°W) 20/0130 30 38 

20/1950 31 41 

SGOF1 (29.4°N 

84.9°W) 15/2100 1005.2 15/2200 49 62 

SHPF1 (30.1°N 

84.3°W) 16/1454 31 

SIPM6 (30.3°N 

89.0°W) 15/2300# 997.4 15/2300# 38 

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SPLL1 (28.9°N 

90.5°W) 16/0200 999.6 16/0200 42 

23/0700 1011.9 23/0700 36 

TPLM2 (38.9°N 

76.4°W) 18/0332 35 

18/1740 34 41 

TYBG1 (31.6°N 

79.9°W) 21/0726 1016.6 21/0726 35 

Buoys

41012 (30.0°N 

80.6°W) 20/1750 29 39 

42001 (25.8°N 

89.7°W) 15/1050 995.2 15/0950 37 

42003 (26.0°N 

85.9°W) 15/0750 993.5 15/0230 55 72 

42007 (30.1°N 

88.8°W) 16/0350# 976.0 16/0350 49 68 

16/0530 49*

42035 (29.3°N 

94.4°W) 23/2250 1012.2 16/0900 30 

42036 (28.5°N 

84.5°W) 15/2020 34 49 

42039 (28.8°N 

86.1°W) 15/2350 995.1 15/2150 45 62 

15/2350 45 

42040 (29.2°N 

88.2°W) 16/0150 955.3 15/2300 55 73 

16/0950 54 

16/0050 956.3 

42041 (27.5°N 

90.5°W) 15/1950 997.6 15/1950 35*

44017 (40.7°N 

72.0°W) 18/1650 1006.9 18/1650 35 

a Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed.

b Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and land-based ASOS reports are 2 min; 

buoy averaging periods are 8 min. 

cStorm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.

d Storm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum (1929 mean sea level).

*

Last of several occurrences

#Instrument failed after report

Table 5: Unofficial observations for Hurricane Ivan, 2-24 September 2004.

Minimum 

Sea-level 

Pressure

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

(kt)

Location

Date/

Time

(UTC)

Press.

(mb)

Date/ 

Timea

(UTC)

Sust.

Windb

(kts)

Peak

Gust 

(kts)

Storm 

Surgec

(ft)

Storm

Tided

(ft)

Rain 

(storm 

total) 

(in)

Windward Islands

Grenada

Calivigny Island 07/1955 969.0 07/1955 80 100 

4 SE Princkly Bay 07/2230 70 

St. Georges Harbour 07/1950 978.0 07/2230 60 

Tobago

HAM Radio 9Y4PDE 16.20 

Trinidad

HAM radio VE7KSN 07/2159 980.0 

Jamaica

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2W Kingston (HAM rpt) 10/2300 39 59 

Kingston (HAM rpt) 11/0055 57 

Kingston Downtown (HAM 

rpt) 10/2350 est. 74 est. 109 

3W Montego Bay (HAM rpt) 11/0139 est. 87 

Cuba

Cabo de San Antonio 14/???? est. 

116 

est. 

146 

Punta del Holandes 14/???? est. 

100 

est. 

116 

Mexico

Cancun (HAM rpt) 13/0225 44 

Isla Mujeres (HAM rpt) 13/2200 38 

Alabama

Fairhope (storm chaser) 16/???? 943.1 

Fairhope - WEMITE 2(30.5N 

87.89W) 16/0342 42 62 

Fairhope - Florida Coastal 

Monitoring Program (FCMP) 

- Tower 2 (30.48N 87.87W)

16/0644 59 77 

FCMP Tower2 - Fairhope 

(30.48°N 87.88°W) 16/0644 59 77 

Gulf Shores Arpt - DOW3 

(30.29°N 87.67°W) 16/???? 73 95 

Gulf Shores Arpt - WEMITE 

1 (30.3°N 87.66°W) 16/0615 70 89 

Gulf Shores - Mark 

Sudduth / HIRT (30.25°N 

87.75°W)

15/2017 1003.9 15/2017 32 57 

16/0647 947.2 16/0602* 77 99 

Mobile (Wallace Tunnel) 16/0940 51 

Mobile (WKRG-TV) 16/0604 64 

Mobile Bay (USNS Fisher - 

ship in dry dock) 16/0830 957.0 

USS Alabama (battleship) 16/0635* 91 

Sailboat Odalisque 

anchored in Wolf Bay / 

Orange Beach, AL (72 ft)

16/0600# 126 

Wolf Field Airport - MIPS 

(30.35°N 87.54°W) 16/0515 66 87 

Florida

Carabelle Beach (HAM rpt) 15/2216 999.0 15/2216 28 37 

Cudjoe Key - SKYWARN 13/1348 36 

Destin Arpt - SBCCOM / 

CR5000 (30.4°N 86.48°W) 16/0652 60 77 

Eglin AFB Sensors

5 S Harold 16/0850 981.4 

10 S Harold 16/0740 982.1 16/0710 78 5.72 

10 N Mary Esther 16/0820 986.8 16/0730 75 

5 NE Seminole 16/0920 992.1 16/0940 75 8.10 

5 SW Mossy Head 16/0900 991.0 

8 SW Mossy Head 16/0710 60 

10 S Mossy Head 16/0900 994.2 8.92 

2 SW Mary Esther (200 ft) 16/0850 103 

Molino Volunteer Fire Dept. 16/0855 70 

Pensacola - Florida Coastal 

Monitoring Program (FCMP) 

Tower 1 (30.48°N 87.19°W)

16/0649 69 92 

Pensacola P.D. (70 ft) 16/0644 108 13.50 

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16/0312 97 

16/0700 92 

St. George Island (HAM rpt) 16/0150 1005 16/0150 39 

West Pensacola 16/???? 84 

Georgia

Greenville (HAM rpt) 16/1730 48 

Newnan 16/2215 963.1 17/0011 45 

Mississippi

Gulfport Arpt - SBCCOM / 

CR23X (30.4°N 80.1°W) 16/0415 44 62 

Pascagoula EOC (on 2-story 

bldg) 16/0600 76 

aDate/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed.

bExcept as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and land-based ASOS reports are 2 min; 

buoy averaging periods are 8 min. 

cStorm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.

dStorm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum (1929 mean sea level).

*

Instrument failed afterwards.

#Approximate time.

Table 6: Preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Ivan, 9-14 August 2004. 

Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC 

official forecasts are shown in bold-face type. Verification includes the depression stage.

Forecast 

Technique

Period (hours)

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

CLP5 25 (62) 51 (60) 86 (58) 121 (55) 175 (51) 229 (47) 296 (44) 

GFNI 27 (57) 57 (55) 95 (55) 134 (53) 219 (49) 325 (45) 443 (41) 

GFDI 28 (60) 52 (58) 77 (57) 94 (55) 147 (51) 204 (47) 261 (43)

GFDL 29 (61) 52 (59) 76 (57) 92 (56) 136 (52) 195 (48) 252 (44)

GFDN 29 (56) 51 (54) 79 (53) 118 (53) 198 (49) 298 (45) 412 (41) 

GFSI 29 (60) 55 (58) 79 (57) 100 (55) 154 (51) 212 (47) 285 (43)

GFSO 32 (63) 56 (61) 80 (58) 99 (56) 147 (52) 198 (48) 268 (43)

AEMI 27 (60) 49 (58) 73 (57) 95 (55) 151 (51) 203 (47) 252 (43)

NGPI 26 (59) 54 (57) 86 (56) 119 (54) 200 (50) 304 (46) 449 (42) 

NGPS 29 (61) 52 (59) 82 (56) 109 (54) 186 (50) 278 (46) 413 (42) 

UKMI 24 (58) 47 (56) 72 (55) 92 (53) 147 (49) 214 (45) 286 (41)

UKM 26 (30) 44 (29) 66 (28) 87 (28) 133 (26) 189 (24) 279 (22)

A98E 27 (61) 43 (59) 72 (57) 103 (55) 179 (51) 248 (47) 349 (44) 

A9UK 27 (28) 43 (27) 71 (26) 95 (25) 149 (23) 

BAMD 31 (61) 54 (59) 78 (57) 96 (55) 147 (51) 219 (47) 300 (44) 

BAMM 32 (61) 53 (59) 86 (57) 116 (55) 172 (51) 214 (47) 283 (44)

BAMS 48 (61) 93 (59) 142 (57) 179 (55) 236 (51) 251 (47) 286 (44)

CONU 22 (60) 47 (58) 74 (57) 97 (55) 154 (51) 224 (47) 307 (43) 

GUNA 22 (58) 45 (56) 71 (55) 92 (53) 147 (49) 213 (45) 289 (41) 

FSSE 21 (53) 38 (51) 58 (51) 81 (51) 126 (47) 171 (43) 199 (38)

OFCL 24 (63) 47 (61) 79 (59) 108 (56) 161 (52) 222 (48) 289 (44) 

NHC Official, 

1994 - 2003 

mean (number 

of cases)

44 (3172) 78 (2894) 112 (2636) 146 (2368) 217 (1929) 248 (421) 319 (341) 

Table 7: Watch and warning summary for Hurricane Ivan. 2-24 September 2004.

Date/Time Action Location

5/2100 Hurricane Watch Issued Barbados 

6/0000 Tropical Storm Watch Issued Grenada and Dependencies 

6/0300 Hurricane Watch Issued St. Lucia 

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6/1200 Tropical Storm Warning Issued St. Vincent and Grenadines 

6/1200 Hurricane Watch Issued Martinique 

6/1200 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Tobago, Grenada and Dependencies 

6/1500 Hurricane Warning Issued Barbados, St. Vincent, Grenadines, St. Lucia, 

Tobago, Grenada and Dependencies 

6/1500 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Trinidad 

7/0300 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Martinique 

7/0600 Tropical Storm Warning Issued St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Grenadines, Grenada and 

Dependencies 

7/0900 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Barbados 

7/1500 Hurricane Watch Issued Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba 

7/2100 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Tobago, Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba 

7/2100 Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm 

Warning Issued Guajira Peninsula Northern Coast of Venezuela 

7/2245 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued Martinique 

8/0000 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued Trinidad, Tobago 

8/0300 Hurricane Warning Issued Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba 

8/0300 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued St. Lucia 

8/0900 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued Barbados, St. Vincent, Grenadines, Grenada and 

Dependencies 

8/0900 Tropical Storm Watch Issued Santo Domingo to D.R. / Haiti Border 

8/1500 Hurricane Watch Issued D.R. / Haiti Border to Port-Au-Prince 

8/2100 Hurricane Watch Issued Jamaica 

9/0300 Hurricane Watch Issued Cayman Islands 

9/0300 Tropical Storm Warning Issued D.R. / Haiti Border to Port-Au-Prince 

9/1500 Hurricane Warning Issued Jamaica 

9/1500 Hurricane Watch Issued Barahona to D.R. / Haiti Border 

9/1500 Hurricane Warning Discontinued Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba 

9/1500 Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm 

Warning Discontinued Guajira Peninsula Northern Coast of Venezuela 

9/1500 Hurricane Watch Issued Matanzas eastward 

9/2100 Hurricane Warning Issued Cayman Islands 

10/1500 Hurricane Watch All Cuba and Isle of Youth 

10/1500 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Cabo Cruz to Santiago De Cuba 

10/1500 All Watches/Warnings Discontinued Dominican Republic 

11/0900 Tropical Storm Warning Extended West Cabo Cruz to Cienfuegos 

11/0900 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued Haiti 

11/1500 Hurricane Warning Issued Ciago De Avila to Pinar Del Rioand Isle of Youth 

12/0300 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Jamaica 

12/1500 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued Jamaica 

12/1500 Tropical Storm Watch Issued 7 Mile Bridge to Dry Tortugas 

12/2100 Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm 

Warning Issued Tulum to Progreso (Yucatan) 

13/0900 Hurricane Warning Issued Tulum to Progreso 

13/1500 Hurricane Warning Discontinued Cayman Islands 

14/0000 Hurricane Warning Adjusted Havana east to Pinar Del Rio and Isle of Youth 

14/0300 Hurricane Watch Issued Morgan City, LA to St. Marks, FL 

14/1500 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Tulum to Progreso (Yucatan) 

14/1800 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Havana east to Pinar Del Rio and Isle of Youth 

14/2100 Hurricane Warning Issued Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola , FL 

14/2100 Hurricane Watch Issued Morgan City, LA to Grand Isle, LA 

14/2100 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Intracoastal City, LA to Grand Isle, LA Apalachicola, 

FL to Yankeetown, FL 

14/2100 All Watches/Warnings Discontinued Yucatan, Cuba 

15/0300 Tropical Storm Watch Discontinued 7 Mile Bridge to Dry Tortugas 

15/2100 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued Morgan City, LA to Intracoastal City, LA 

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Figure 1: Best track positions for Hurricane Ivan, 2-24 September 2004. 

16/0900 All Watches and Warnings Discontinued West of Grand Isle, LA 

16/0900 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Mouth of Pearl River, LA to Grand Isle, LA 

16/1200 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued Apalachicola, FL to Yankeetown, FL 

16/1500 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Mouth of Pearl River, LA to Apalachicola, FL 

16/1500 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of Pearl River, LA 

16/1800 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued West of MS/LA Border 

16/2100 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued MS/LA Border to Apalachicola , FL 

22/2300 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Mouth of MS River to Sargent, TX 

23/1500 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued Mouth of MS River to Morgan City, LA 

23/2100 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued San Luis Pass, TX to Sargent, TX 

24/0300 All Warnings Discontinued Remaining Coastal (San Luis Pass, TX to Morgan 

City, LA) 

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Figure 2a: Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for 

Hurricane Ivan, 2-24 September 2004. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation using 90%, 

80%, and 80% reduction factors for observations from 700 mb, 850 mb, and 1500 ft, respectively. 

 

Figure 2b: Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for 

Hurricane Ivan during the peak intensity period of 9-16 September 2004. 

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Figure 2c: Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for 

Hurricane Ivan approximately 24h prior to and 18 h after landfall (15-17 September 2004) along the Alabama 

coast. The highest surface winds occurred along the extreme western Florida panhandle coastal areas, well 

east of where the center actually made landfall along the Alabama coast. 

 

Figure 3a: Pressure observations and minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Ivan, 2-24 September 

2004. 

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Figure 3b: Pressure observations and minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Ivan during its period of 

greatest intensity (9-16 September 2004). 

 

Figure 4a: Radar reflectivity image from Kingston, Jamaica at 1444 UTC 10 September 2004 as Ivan was 

approaching the island from the southeast. Ivan had weakened from a category 5 hurricane down to category 

4 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 kt at this time. Note the two concentric eyewalls that likely were the 

cause of the short term weakening (image courtesy of the Jamaica Meteorological Service). 

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Figure 4b: Radar reflectivity image from Cancun, Mexico at 2342 UTC 13 September 2004. Ivan was a 

category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 kt and a pressure of 914 mb at this time (image courtesy of 

the National Meteorological Service of Mexico). 

 

Figure 4c: Reflectivity image of Hurricane Ivan from the Mobile, AL National Weather Service Forecast Office 

WSR-88D Doppler radar at 0702 UTC 16 September 2004 -- less than 15 min after the time of landfall along 

the Alabama coast. The center of the broad eye of the hurricane was inland over extreme southern Alabama 

at this time. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft reported flight-level winds of 120 just offshore in the 

strong convective band (red 50 dBZ areas) southwest of Pensacola, Florida at about 20 min after the time of 

this image. Peak Doppler radar velocities ranged from 120-123 kt at 6,000 ft ASL as Ivan moved onshore. 

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Figure 5a: NHC Official forecast tracks (OFCL) for Hurricane Ivan during the period 1800 UTC 02 through 

0600 UTC16 September 2004 (1stU.S.landfall). Note the persistent right-of-track bias from the outset as a 

result of most of the global models prematurely eroding the subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane. 

 

Figure 5b: NHC Official forecast tracks (OFCL) for Hurricane Ivan during the period 0600 UTC 13 September 

to 0000 UTC 16 September 2004. Note the small spread in the forecast tracks (from 72 h through 6 h prior to 

landfall), which targeted the Alabama and extreme western Florida panhandle coastal areas as the most likely 

region where landfall would occur.

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Figure 6: United States rainfall totals for Hurricane Ivan (image courtesy of NOAA Hydrometeorological 

Prediction Center). 

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