STRAWMAN TIMELINE OF A RULEMAKING

Phase 1: Screening and Industry Profile Issues identification consultation/ workshop • Identification of issues • Identification of experts for review • Definition of contractor expertise - engineering/ economic • Preliminary selection of analytical approaches for future analysis (engineering and economic analysis) Issues identification consultation/ workshop • Identification of characterization data sources • Characterization data collection methodology (ies) • Characterization information requirements • Preliminary selection of analytical approaches for future analysis (costs, prices, shipments) Identification of design classes and options Initial industry review
•
•
• Define product classes Define baseline models Define design options •
•
• Identify firms Identify product characteristics Define markets Screening design options Quantitative Analysis
• Technical feasibility • Census data
• Practicality to manufacture, • Historical market structure install and service • Market trends
• Product utilit and availabilit

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• Impacts on health and safety Qualitative Analysis • Prepare surveys/interview guide • Identify interview participants • Stakeholder review • Conduct interviews Stakeholder review • Review screening analysis Stakeholder review • Review industry databook

DRAFT 3/10/97 1 STRA WMAN TIMELINE OF A RULEMAKING Phase 1: Screening and IndustryProfile Issues identification consultation! workshop • Identification ofissues • Identification ofexperts for review • Definition ofcontractor expertise

- engineering/ economIC • Preliminary selection of analytical approaches for future analysis (engineering and economic analysis) Identification ofdesign classes and options • Defineproduct classes • Definebaseline models • Define design options Screening design options • Technical feasibility • Practicality to manufacture, install and service • Productutility and availability It Impacts on health and safety

Stakeholder review • Review screening analysis

DRAFT 3/10/97 1Issues identification consultation/ workshop • Identification of characterization data sources • Characterization data collection methodology (ies) • Characterization information requirements • Preliminary selection of analytical approaches for future analysis (costs, prices, shipments) Initial industry review • Identify firms • Identify product characteristics • Define markets Quantitative Analysis • Census data • Historical market structure • Market trends Qualitative Analysis • Prepare surveys/interview guide • Identify interview participants • Stakeholderreview • Conductinterviews Stakeholder review • Review industry databookPhase 2 a) Engineering analysis and Manufacturer costs

Engineering analysis consultation/workshop • Establish base case design • Order design options • Validate test procedure • Identify engineering performance models Develop cost/efficiency curves • uncertainties Manufacturing costs consultation/workshop • Establish costing methodology (ies) • Establish data collection methodologies • Phase 2: Uncertainty • Phase 3: Variability Collect/generate manufacturing cost data Stakeholder review Stakeholder review Phase 2 b) Life-cycle cost analysis and Price forecasts Develop consumer prices • Alternative approaches Develop life-cycle-costs • Average values and uncertainty Develop manufacturer prices for GRIM • Alternative approaches • Industry average with uncertainty
Select candidate standards levels Stakeholder review Stakeholder review Phase 2 c) National Benefits and Shipment Forecasts Preliminary National Benefits • Consumer NPV • National energy savings Develop Shipment forecasts for GRIM • Alternative approaches • Scenario analysis

Stakeholder review Phase 2 d) Industry cash flow Stakeholder review

Conduct industry cashflow Stakeholder review

DRAFT 3/10/97 2 

### Phase2 a) Engineering analysis andManufacturercosts Engineering analysis consultation/workshop • Establishbase case design • Orderdesign options • Validate test procedure • Identify engineering performance models Develop cost/efficiency curves • uncertainties Stakeholder review Manufacturing costs consultation/workshop • Establish costing methodology (ies) • Establish datacollection methodologies • Phase 2: Uncertainty • Phase 3: Variability Collect/generate manufacturing cost data Stakeholder review 

### Phase 2 b) Life-cycle cost analysis andPriceforecasts Develop consumerprices • Alternative approaches Develop life-cycle-costs • Average values and uncertainty Select candidate standards levels Stakeholder review Develop manufacturerprices for GRIM • Alternative approaches • Industry average with uncertainty

Stakeholder review


### Phase2 c) NationalBenefits and ShipmentForecasts Preliminary National Benefits Develop Shipmentforecasts for GRIM • ConsumerNPV • Alternative approaches • National energy savings • Scenario analysis

Stakeholder review Stakeholder review


### Phase2 d) Industry cashflow Conduct industry cashflow Stakeholder review

DRAFT 

### 3110/97 2

### ANOPR

Phase 3: Economic Impact Analysis and Manufacturer sub-group analysis Economic impact consultation/workshop • Validate analysis, data and modeling needs Phase 3: Subgroup impact consultation/workshop • Validate analysis, data and modeling needs • Survey development/interview participants Evaluate consumer impacts Evaluate manufacturer impacts

• National average energy price • Conduct interviews and usage • Cashflow analysis • Regional variations • Competitive impacts

• Performance and installation • Direct employment impacts cost variations • Capacity impacts, assets

• Variations in energy prices • Cumulative burden

• Variations in discount rates

• Consider changes in consumer utility
• Changes in first cost and payback
• Consider fuel switching Utility impacts Environment and energy security National employment Impacts of non-regulatory approaches Impacts on Competition (DOJ) Stakeholder review Stakeholder review

NOPR Comment Period

FR

DRAFT 3/10/97 3 ANOPR Phase3: Economic ImpactAnalysis and Manufacturer sub-group analysis Economic impactconsultation/workshop 

### • Validate analysis, data and modeling needs

Evaluate consumerimpacts • National average energy price and usage • Regional variations • Performance and installation cost variations • Variations in energy prices • Variations in discountrates • Consider changes in consumer utility • Changes in first cost and payback • Consider fuel switching Utility impacts Environment and energy security National employment Impacts ofnon-regulatory approaches Impacts on Competition (DOJ) Stakeholder review

NOPR 

### Comment Period


### FR

DRAFT 3/10/97 3 Phase 

### 3: Subgroup impact consultation/workshop 

### • Validate analysis, data and modeling needs • Survey development/interview participants Evaluate manufacturerimpacts • Conduct interviews • Cashflow analysis • Competitive impacts • Direct employmentimpacts • Capacity impacts, assets • Cumulativeburden

Stakeholder review