1 MEMORANDUM

DATE: June 26, 2008

SUBJECT: Existing Populat ion of Stationary RICE

FROM: Tanya Parise, Alpha-Gamma Technologies, Inc.

TO: Jaime Pagán, EPA Energy Strategies Group

The purpose of this memorandum is to present the population of existing stationary reciprocating internal combus tion engines (RICE) that will be used to estimate the national impacts of the nat ional emission standards for hazardous air pollutants (NESHAP) for this source categor y. This memorandum addresses existing stationary RICE less than and equal to 500 hors epower (HP) located at major sources of HAP emissions and existing stationary RICE of all sizes located at area sources of HAP emissions.

The population of existing stationary RICE is based on information in the Power Systems Research’s (PSR) North American Engine PartsLink Database provided by the U.S. EPA Office of Transportation and Air Qua lity. EPA has previously discussed the appropriateness for using estimates developed by PSR (see Attachment A to Document ID Number EPA-HQ-OAR-2005- 0029-0007, available from http://www.regulations.gov .)

Population estimates have previously been developed for the new source performance standards (NSPS) for spark igni tion (SI) and compression ignition (CI) stationary engines. These memoranda can be obtained from http://www.regulations.gov as Document ID Num bers EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0030-0015, EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0030-0063, and EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0029-0007.

Existing Population of Engines

The existing population of engines in the U.S. was based on using the information from PSR’s database as the baseli ne population. The baseline year for CI engines was 1998 and the baseline year for SI engines was 2002. The baseline population numbers are provided in Table 1. To estimate the existing population in 2008, engine sales information from PSR was used to project the number of new engines that would be sold in the years 1999 through 2007 for CI engines and 2003 through 2007 for SI engines. EPA applied the same method for determining the number of new stationary engines as was done under the CI and SI NSPS. The methodology2 applied to estimate the current population of engines was described in the memoranda referenced on page 1 of this memorandum.

Table 1. Baseline Population of CI and SI Stationary Engines (includes all engines at major and area sources)

Population HP Range SI (as of 2002) CI (as of 1998) 25-50 109,075 0 50-100 21,815 124,064 100-175 44,262 197,076 175-300 9,755 130,744 300-600 9,554 140,058 600-750 1,116 24,359

>750 10,369 47,478 Total 205,946 663,780

EPA applied the same assumptions that were used to develop the projected number of new engines under the CI and SI NSPS for consistency across rulemakings addressing similar or the same engines. The main assumptions used to develop the necessary population estimates for this rulemaking are as follows:

• No stationary CI engines below 50 HP.

• No stationary SI engines below 25 HP.

• Percent of stationary RICE lo cated at major sources: 40%

• Percent of stationary RICE located at area sources: 60%

• CI engines breakdown:

o Percentage that are prime engines: 20%

o Percentage that are emergency engines: 80%

• New SI engines breakdown 1,2: <1,000 HP

o Percentage that are 4SLB: 53%

o Percentage that are 4SRB: 47% 1,000-5,000 HP

o Percentage that are 4SLB: 75%

o Percentage that are 4SRB: 25% >5,000 HP

o All 4SLB

1 The breakdown for existing engines is 11%, 47%, and 42% for 2SLB, 4SLB, and 4SRB, respectively.

2 2SLB engines represent less than 0.1 per cent of new stationary SI engines.3 The estimated total existing population of st ationary engines and the population of these engines at major and area sources is presented in Tables 2, 3, and 4, respectively.

Table 2. Total 2008 Populati on of Stationary RICE

Size Range (HP) Existing Population (2008) SI Engines CI Engines 25-50 142,667 0 50-100 41,569 262,505 100-175 76,262 328,759 175-300 22,576 254,778 300-600 18,134 191,239 600-750 1,909 31,807

>750 21,530 79,976 Total 324,646 1,149,064

Table 3. 2008 Population of Stat ionary RICE at Major Sources

Size Range (HP) Existing Population Major Sources (2008) SI Engines CI Engines 25-50 57,067 0 50-100 16,628 105,002 100-175 30,505 131,504 175-300 9,030 101,911 300-500 4,836 50,997

Total 118,065 389,414

Table 4. 2008 Population of Stat ionary RICE at Area Sources

Size Range (HP) Existing Population Area Sources (2008) SI Engines CI Engines 25-50 85,600 0 50-100 24,941 157,503 100-175 45,757 197,255 175-300 13,545 152,867 300-600 10,881 114,744 600-750 1,145 19,084

>750 12,918 47,986 Total 194,788 689,4384 Information received from and developed in conjunction with the Engine Manufacturer’s Association (EMA) in order to determine how the population of existing CI engines is distributed over various model years is presented in Table 5. A similar version of this information was presented in the Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (73 FR 4136). Note that this table is based on earlier population estimates and does not match the updated estimates presented in Tables 2 through 4 of this memorandum. Table 5 is intended to pr esent an overview of how engines are distributed over different model years. The percentages of older engines to newer engines is what is relevant in the below table.

Table 5. Breakdown of Stationa ry CI RICE by Model Year

Size Range

(HP) <1980 1980-
1994 1994-
2001 2002- 2005 Pre1994 1994- 2005 Totals

50-100 26,200 62,759 49,919 22, 521 88,959 72,440 161,399 100-175 57,426 92,857 61,572 23, 634 150,283 85,206 235,489 175-300 27,198 63,991 57,739 40, 877 91,189 98,616 189,805 300-600 70,303 53,188 38,778 31, 403 123,491 70,181 193,672 600-750 8,562 12,664 10,743 8, 648 21,226 19,391 40,617

>750 6,899 28,357 33,835 10, 520 35,256 44,355 79,611 Total 196,588 313,816 252,586 137, 603 510,404 390,189 900,5935 References

1. Memorandum from Tanya Parise, Alpha-Ga mma Technologies Inc. to Sims Roy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, OAQPS ESD Combustion Group. June 20, 2005. Population and Projection of Stationary Engines (EPA-HQ-OAR-2005- 0029-0007).

2. Memorandum from Tanya Parise, Alpha-Ga mma Technologies Inc. to Sims Roy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, OAQPS ESD Combustion Group. April 5, 2006. Population and Projection of St ationary Spark Ignition Engines (EPAEPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0030-0063.)

3. Memorandum from Bradley Nelson, Al pha-Gamma Technologies Inc. to Jaime Pagán, U.S. Environmental Protection A gency, EPA Energy Strategies Group. April 5, 2006. Population and Projection for Stationary RICE at Major and Area Sources (EPA-HQ -OAR-2005-0030-0015).

4. Memorandum from Melanie Tayl or and Chuck Zukor, Alpha-Gamma Technologies Inc. to Sims Roy and Jaime Pagán, EPA OAQPS ESD Combustion Group. June 22, 2004. Decision on Usi ng Estimates from PSR or the RICE NESHAP Population Database for E ngines above 500 Horsepower (EPA-HQOAR-2005-0029-0007).