# OAR Box 1112 Prepped by Ryan Dugan



## Document

Number: 

# 35 ) II-C-3C

Docket Number: 

# A-83-2 2

Printed 4/16/2008 9:12:07AM Sheet 35of 97 p. 1P. 2


### 10/3/8 4 Expert Selectio n Protoco l - ? ^

1 . INTRODUCTIO N
I norde r t o conduc t a probabilisti c ris k assessmen t o f th e healt h effect s associate dwit halternativ e nationa l ambien t ai r qualit y standard s (NAAQS ) fo r lea di t i s necessar y t o obtai nth e probabilisti c judgment s o f recognize dexper t scientist s an dphysician s concernin g dose/respons e relationship s betwee nlea dandadvers e healt heffect s i nhuma npopulations . Suc hjudgment s nee dt o b e obtaine dt o produc e th e require dris k estimate s becaus e o f th e existenc e o f uncertaint y abou t thes e dose/respons e relationships . Th e nee dfo r probabilit y judgment s from

recognize dexpert s create s th e nee dfo r tw o forma l processes : a "probabilit y encoding " proces s whic h culminate s i nth e elicitatio no f probabilit y judgment s from

individua l experts ; and , a proces s b y whic hth e expert s t o b e encode dar e selected . Th e probabilit y

encodin g proces s protoco l i s addresse di nothe r work . Th e proces s o f selectin g expert s i s addresse dhere . Th e proces s o f selectin g a se t o f expert s t o encod e i s a s importan t a s th e encodin g proces s itself . A balance dse t o f viewpoint s tha t represent s th e existin g diversit y o f respecte dan

dcredibl e exper t opinio ni s desired . Th e followin g sectio nspecifie s a metho dfo r selectin g a grou po f expert s tha t achieve s thi s objective . 2 . GENERA L STEP S IN TH E PROCES S
2. 0 Selectio nProtoco l Considerin g th e time an dresourc e constraint s whic hlimi t th e scop e o f a selectio nprocedure , th e followin g protoco l i s specified . (a ) A ninitia l lis t o f 5 t o 1 0 name s fo r eac hhealt heffec t wil l b e constructe db

y OAQP S followin g consultatio nwit hECAO staff , C D authors , andOAQP S contractors . (b ) OAQP S staf f an dcontractor s wil l tak e thi s information , determin e th e numbe r o f expert s tha t ca naffordabl y b e encoded , an

dselec t a lis t o f expert s tha t represent s th e rang e o f credible , respecte dopinio no neac h healt heffec t a t th e exposur e level s o f interes t fo r th e ris k assessmen t program . 3 . SELECTIO N

CRITERI A Th e followin g suggest s factor s tha t ar e relevan t i nth e selectio no v peopl e fo r th e encodin g process : (a ) familiarit y

wit hth e proble m

- (i ) degre e o f familiarit y wit hth e advers e effec t a t th e rel ' dos e level s (e.g. , ma y b e activel y

involve di nresear- ; directl y

addresse s th e issu e a t hand) ;P. 3



### (ii ) degre e o f involvemen t i norganizin g and/o r participatin g i n workshop s and/o r conference s relate dt o lea dan dit s healt h effects ; (iii ) degre e o f involvemen t i nproducin g th e leadCD . (b ) credential s - thi s typ e o f facto r concern s th e individual s genera l credibilit y

a s a nexpert : (i ) scop e o f publications ; (ii ) membershi po

nrelevan t committee s (e.g. , NAS) ; (iii ) genera l expertis e i nendpoin t o f concern ; (iv ) degre e o f respec t amon g peers . (c ) technica l perspectiv e - thi s typ e o f facto r concern s th e technica l backgroun do r perspectiv e o f th e person , suc has , (i ) whethe r he o r sh e i s a clinica l investigator , epidemiologist , o r toxicologist ; (ii ) th e natur e o f th e person' s ow nresearch ; an

d (iii ) th e person' s interpretationa l orientation . (d ) availabilit y

t o participat e i nth e encodin g process .

Th e inten t o f th e selectio nproces s i s t o utiliz e th e knowledge , credibility , an

ddiversit y

o f th e scientifi c communit y relate dt o eac hhealt h effec t i na balance dway . OAQP S staf f andcontractor s assum e th e lea drol e andresponsibilit y

fo r obtainin g acceptabl e group s o f experts .