13

- i CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS
TABLE OF CONTENTS

13.1 INTRODUCTION

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- 1 13.2 METHODOLOGY

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- 1 13.3 RESULTS

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- 2 REFERENCES

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- 313

- 1 CHAPTER 1 3
. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS
13.1 INTRODUCTION The utility impact analysis estimates the change in the forecasted power generation capacity of the n ation that would be expected to result from the adoption of new and amended energy efficiency standards. The U.S. Department of Energy ( DOE ) will use a version of the Energy Information Administration’s ( EIA’s ) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for th e analys i s. NEMS , which is publicly available , is a large, multi

- sectoral, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. EIA uses NEMS to produce its Annual Energy Outlook ( AEO ) , 1 a widely recognized baseline energy forecast for the United States. T he version of NEMS used for appliance standards analysis is called NEMS

- Building Technologies ( NEMS

- BT ) and is based
on AEO20 11 with minor modifications. The NEMS

- BT offers a sophisticated picture of the effect of standards, since it accounts for the inter actions between the various energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole. The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by fuel type, that result from the adoption of amended energy efficiency standa rds at each trial standard level (TSL), as well as changes i n electricity consumption.
13.2 METHODOLOGY
To estimate the effects of the proposed standards on the electric utility industry, DOE will use NEMS

- BT to provide key inputs to the analysis. EIA approves the use of the name NEMS only to describe an official version of the model with no modif ications to the modeling code or data. Because th e analysis will entail some minor code modifications and the model is run under multiple policy scenarios that are var iations on EIA assumptions, DOE will refer to it
as NEMS

- BT.

For metal halide lamp fixtures , the analysis will consist of forecasted differences between the base and standards cases for electricity generation, installed capacity, and electricity sales

. Th e NEMS

- BT model provides reference case load shapes for several end uses, including lighting applications. For electrical end uses, NEMS

- BT uses predicted growth in demand for each end use to project the total electric system load growth for each region, which in turn predict s the necessary additions to electrical generation capacity. NEMS

- BT also accounts for the implementation of energy conservation standards by decrementing the appropriate reference case load shape. DOE determine s the size of the decrem ent the same way it calculates national energy savings except that it uses site energy without co n verting it into source energy.
The use of NEMS

- BT for the utility impact analysis offers several advantages. As the official DOE energy forecasting model, NE MS

- BT relies on a set of transparent assumptions that have received wide exposure and commentary. NEMS

- BT will allow an estimate of the interactions between the various energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole.13

- 2 DOE will conduct the utility impact analysis as a variant of the AEO 20 1 1 , applying the same basic set of assumptions. For example, the utility analysis uses the operating characteristics ( e.g. , energy conversion efficacy, emissions rates) of future electricity generating plants. The model uses predicted growth in demand for each end use to project total electric system load growth for each region, which in turn is use d to predict necessary additions to electrical generation capacity. The terminal year of the NEMS

- BT mode l is 203 5 , impacts beyond which are typically extrapolated

. As with the AEO reference case in general, the implicit premise is that the regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the extrapolation period. Only changes t hat have been announced with date

- certain introduction are included in NEMS

- BT.
13.3 RESULTS Results of the utility impact analysis will include changes in electricity sales, installed capacity, and generation for each TSL in 5

- year forecasted increments extrapolated to 204 4

.13

- 3 REFERENCES

1

. U.S. Department of Energy

– Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 with Projections to 2035

. 2010

. (Last accessed February 27, 2011.) < http://www.eia.doe.gov/forecasts/aeo/index.cfm >