Historical General Service L amp Shipments Estimates Cadeo Group relied on several sources t o estimate historical shipments of general serv ice lamps . These sources included utility residential lighting program evaluation studies, retailer shelf surveys, utility program data, third - party market research reports, the quarterly NEMA lamp indices, and interviews with industry experts. Cadeo particularly relied on DOE’s 2010 Lighting Market Characterization 1 and 2012 Energy Savings Potential of Solid - State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 2 as well as the NEMA Lamp Sales Indices and its associated press releases. In general, Cadeo followed a three - step analytical process to estimate the volume and mix of shipments from 2010 to 2013. First, Cadeo estimated national 2010 GSL s hipments based on a variety of sources, including those listed above. Second , Cadeo scaled these shipments by technology group from 2010 to 2013 based on the NEMA Lamp Sales Indices and t he associated press releases. Third, Cadeo used electric utility market studies and point - of - sale data to disaggregate the total estimated shipments into each lumen bin . Step 1. Develop ed national sales estimates for 2010. Cadeo first estimated historical national GSL sales for 2010 by technology group for 2010. Two DOE reports -- the 2010 Lighting Market Character ization and the 2012 Energy Savings Potential of Solid - State Lighting in General Illumination Applications — provided the foundation for these estimates. Cadeo also r eviewed lamp manufacturer presentations, manufacturer annual reports, and third - party lighting market research reports. Cadeo adjusted its sales estimates derived from the two DOE reports when these other sources offered more granularity or provided a dditional perspective on the relative sales volumes of each technology group. Step 2. Scale d national 2010 shipments using the N EMA sales indices Lacking better sales trend data, Cadeo used the NEMA sales indices below to scale the initial shipment mix t o each of the subsequent annual years . Because of the difficulty in interpreting the scale of the y - axis, Cadeo used the additional details provided by NEMA in its index - update accompanying press releases to back into the exact year - to - year changes in sales.

1 U.S. Department of Energy. 2010 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization. January 2012. Available at http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/2010 - lmc - final - jan - 2012.pdf . 2 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Energy Savings Potential of Solid - State Lighting in General Illumination Applications. 2012. http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/ssl_energy - savingsre port_jan - 2012.pdf .Figure 1 NEMA Lamp Sales Index (Last Accessed August 2014) NEMA press releases used to calibrate estimates: • http://www.nema.org/news/Pages/LED - A - line - Replacement - Lamps - Begin - Making - Inroads into - the - Market.aspx • http://www.nema.org/news/Pages/Sustained - Growth - for - Halogen - A - Line - Lamp - Index.aspx • http://www.nema.org/news/Pages/Incandescent - Lamp - Shipments - Index - Remains - Resilient Through - Third - Quarter.aspx • http://ww w.nema.org/news/Pages/Growth - in - Halogen - A - Line - Lamp - Index - Accelerates During - First - Quarter.aspx • http://www.nema.org/news/Pages/Shipments - of - Incandescent - Lamps - Illuminate - at - the Close - of - 2011.aspx • http://www.nema.org/news/Pages/Incandescent - Lamp - Shipments - Wane - During - Second Quarter.aspx • http://www.nema.org/news/Pages/What - a - Difference - a - Year - Makes - for - Incandescent Lamps.aspx Table 1 Estimated National Shipment s for GSL from 2010 to 2013 Shipments (Covered GSL Products, 000s) Incandescent A - Line CFL A - line (spiral) Halogen A - line LED A - Line Pin - Based CFL2010 801,005 262,241 13,605 1,540 48,314 2011 929,166 250,178 20,607 2,002 46,864 2012 767,491 249,428 38,802 5,544 45,458 2013 663,880 243,441 83,806 14,630 44,095 Step 3: Allocate shipments to lumen bins Cadeo all ocated shipments by lumen bin in 2010 based on proprietary point - of - sale data from a market research firm, corroborated by discussions with industry market actors and utility saturation stock data . Cadeo assumed the distribution of wattage equivalences (lumen bins) has not changed over time , though it expects that EISA impacted the actual rated wattage distribution. Lumen Bin Distribution 100W (or equiv) 75W (or equiv) 60W (or equiv) 40W (or equiv) 2010 11.4% 8.7% 60% 20% 2011 11.4% 8.7% 60% 20% 2012 11.4% 8.7% 60% 20% 2013 11.4% 8.7% 60% 20%