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CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

13.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 13-1

13.2 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 13-1

13.3 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 13-2

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 13-3
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CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

13.1 INTRODUCTION

The utility impact analysis estimates the change in the forecasted power generation 

capacity of the nation that would be expected to result from the adoption of new and amended 

energy efficiency standards. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will use a version of the 

Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for the

analysis. NEMS, which is publicly available, is a large, multi-sectoral, partial equilibrium model 

of the U.S. energy sector. EIA uses NEMS to produce its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO),

1

a 

widely recognized baseline energy forecast for the United States. The version of NEMS used for 

appliance standards analysis is called NEMS-Building Technologies (NEMS-BT) and is based 

on AEO2011 with minor modifications. The NEMS-BT offers a sophisticated picture of the 

effect of standards, since it accounts for the interactions between the various energy supply and 

demand sectors and the economy as a whole. 

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by 

fuel type, that result from the adoption of amended energy efficiency standards at each trial 

standard level (TSL), as well as changes in electricity consumption.

13.2 METHODOLOGY

To estimate the effects of the proposed standards on the electric utility industry, DOE 

will use NEMS-BT to provide key inputs to the analysis. EIA approves the use of the name 

NEMS only to describe an official version of the model with no modifications to the modeling 

code or data. Because the analysis will entail some minor code modifications and the model is 

run under multiple policy scenarios that are variations on EIA assumptions, DOE will refer to it 

as NEMS-BT. 

For metal halide lamp fixtures, the analysis will consist of forecasted differences between 

the base and standards cases for electricity generation, installed capacity, and electricity sales. 

The NEMS-BT model provides reference case load shapes for several end uses, including 

lighting applications. 

For electrical end uses, NEMS-BT uses predicted growth in demand for each end use to 

project the total electric system load growth for each region, which in turn predicts the necessary 

additions to electrical generation capacity. NEMS-BT also accounts for the implementation of 

energy conservation standards by decrementing the appropriate reference case load shape. DOE 

determines the size of the decrement the same way it calculates national energy savings except 

that it uses site energy without converting it into source energy. 

The use of NEMS-BT for the utility impact analysis offers several advantages. As the 

official DOE energy forecasting model, NEMS-BT relies on a set of transparent assumptions that 

have received wide exposure and commentary. NEMS-BT will allow an estimate of the 

interactions between the various energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole. 
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DOE will conduct the utility impact analysis as a variant of the AEO2011, applying the 

same basic set of assumptions. For example, the utility analysis uses the operating characteristics 

(e.g., energy conversion efficacy, emissions rates) of future electricity generating plants. 

The model uses predicted growth in demand for each end use to project total electric 

system load growth for each region, which in turn is used to predict necessary additions to 

electrical generation capacity. 

The terminal year of the NEMS-BT model is 2035, impacts beyond which are typically 

extrapolated. As with the AEO reference case in general, the implicit premise is that the 

regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the 

extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain introduction are 

included in NEMS-BT.

13.3 RESULTS

Results of the utility impact analysis will include changes in electricity sales, installed 

capacity, and generation for each TSL in 5-year forecasted increments extrapolated to 2044.
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REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2011 with Projections to 2035. 2010. (Last accessed February 27, 2011.)

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/forecasts/aeo/index.cfm>