Historical General Service Lamp Shipments Estimates

Cadeo Group relied on several sources to estimate historical shipments of general service lamps. 

These sources included utility residential lighting program evaluation studies, retailer shelf 

surveys, utility program data, third-party market research reports, the quarterly NEMA lamp 

indices, and interviews with industry experts. Cadeo particularly relied on DOE’s 2010 Lighting 

Market Characterization1 and 2012 Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General 

Illumination Applications2 as well as the NEMA Lamp Sales Indices and its associated press 

releases.

In general, Cadeo followed a three-step analytical process to estimate the volume and mix of 

shipments from 2010 to 2013. First, Cadeo estimated national 2010 GSL shipments based on a 

variety of sources, including those listed above. Second, Cadeo scaled these shipments by 

technology group from 2010 to 2013 based on the NEMA Lamp Sales Indices and the associated 

press releases. Third, Cadeo used electric utility market studies and point-of-sale data to 

disaggregate the total estimated shipments into each lumen bin. 

Step 1. Developed national sales estimates for 2010.

Cadeo first estimated historical national GSL sales for 2010 by technology group for 2010. Two 

DOE reports--the 2010 Lighting Market Characterization and the 2012 Energy Savings Potential 

of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications—provided the foundation for these 

estimates. Cadeo also reviewed lamp manufacturer presentations, manufacturer annual reports,

and third-party lighting market research reports. Cadeo adjusted its sales estimates derived 

from the two DOE reports when these other sources offered more granularity or provided 

additional perspective on the relative sales volumes of each technology group.

Step 2. Scaled national 2010 shipments using the NEMA sales indices

Lacking better sales trend data, Cadeo used the NEMA sales indices below to scale the initial 

shipment mix to each of the subsequent annual years. Because of the difficulty in interpreting 

the scale of the y-axis, Cadeo used the additional details provided by NEMA in its index-update 

accompanying press releases to back into the exact year-to-year changes in sales.

1

U.S. Department of Energy. 2010 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization. January 2012. Available at 

http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/2010-lmc-final-jan-2012.pdf. 

2 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications. 

2012. http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/ssl_energy-savingsreport_jan-2012.pdf. 

 
Figure 1 NEMA Lamp Sales Index (Last Accessed August 2014)

NEMA press releases used to calibrate estimates:

• http://www.nema.org/news/Pages/LED-A-line-Replacement-Lamps-Begin-Making-Inroadsinto-the-Market.aspx

• http://www.nema.org/news/Pages/Sustained-Growth-for-Halogen-A-Line-Lamp-Index.aspx 

• http://www.nema.org/news/Pages/Incandescent-Lamp-Shipments-Index-Remains-ResilientThrough-Third-Quarter.aspx

• http://www.nema.org/news/Pages/Growth-in-Halogen-A-Line-Lamp-Index-AcceleratesDuring-First-Quarter.aspx 

• http://www.nema.org/news/Pages/Shipments-of-Incandescent-Lamps-Illuminate-at-theClose-of-2011.aspx

• http://www.nema.org/news/Pages/Incandescent-Lamp-Shipments-Wane-During-SecondQuarter.aspx

• http://www.nema.org/news/Pages/What-a-Difference-a-Year-Makes-for-IncandescentLamps.aspx

Table 1 Estimated National Shipments for GSL from 2010 to 2013

Shipments (Covered GSL Products, 000s)

Incandescent A-Line CFL A-line (spiral) Halogen A-line LED A-Line Pin-Based CFL
2010 801,005 262,241 13,605 1,540 48,314 

2011 929,166 250,178 20,607 2,002 46,864 

2012 767,491 249,428 38,802 5,544 45,458 

2013 663,880 243,441 83,806 14,630 44,095 

Step 3: Allocate shipments to lumen bins

Cadeo allocated shipments by lumen bin in 2010 based on proprietary point-of-sale data from a 

market research firm, corroborated by discussions with industry market actors and utility 

saturation stock data. Cadeo assumed the distribution of wattage equivalences (lumen bins) has 

not changed over time, though it expects that EISA impacted the actual rated wattage 

distribution.

Lumen Bin Distribution

100W (or equiv) 75W (or equiv) 60W (or equiv) 40W (or equiv)

2010 11.4% 8.7% 60% 20%

2011 11.4% 8.7% 60% 20%

2012 11.4% 8.7% 60% 20%

2013 11.4% 8.7% 60% 20%