# Heavy-Duty Vehicle Market Analysis
Vehicle Characteristics & Fuel Use Manufacturer Market Shares

June 20092 

# Agenda

1 Executive Summary 2 Heavy Duty Trucks 3 Commercial Trailers

APPENDIX Data Sources & Methodology

# Executive Summary4 

# Executive Summary

 Data confirms that the HDV fleet is extremely diverse  With respect to annual fuel use, most important vehicle is CLASS 8 TRACTOR pulling a 40-53 ft VAN-type trailer  Approx 67% of annual fuel use by the entire HDV fleet  Most important target for HDV fuel efficiency regulation  Likely that >50% of STRAIGHT TRUCKS are equipped with a box, flat bed, or stake bed body  Used to haul various types of freight  “Vocational trucks” (dump trucks, refuse haulers, utility trucks, vehicle haulers, etc.) are <15% of new HDV sales  CLASS 3 vehicles are 30% of new HDV sales, but use only about 10% of annual fuel  Of these smaller HDVs, most important type is PICK UP truck 

### High Level Insights5 

# Executive Summary

 Manufacturing of the most numerous and important HDVs is concentrated to only a few companies  Largest Class 8 HDVs dominated by 6, mostly U.S., “heavy truck” manufacturers  Smallest HDVs (Class 3 -4) dominated by the “big 3” U.S. auto manufacturers  Both “truck” and “auto” manufacturers produce significant numbers of Class 6 HDVs  Manufacturing of the most numerous types of commercial trailers (VANs) is dominated by only five trailer manufacturers  The concentration of manufacturing may make implementation of HDV fuel efficiency standards easier? 

### High Level Insights6 

# Executive Summary

 More than half of all in-use HDVs are registered to fleets with ten trucks or less  Includes 35% which are registered to owner-operators with only a single truck  Limited available data suggests that larger fleets buy a greater percentage of new vehicles, and that smaller fleets (<10 trucks) are more likely to buy used trucks  These ownership patterns may make imposition of HDV fuel efficiency standards more difficult due to the perceived hardship that they would impose on small businesses  Somewhat mitigated by buying habits? 

### High Level Insights

# Heavy Duty Trucks8  Approximately 521,000 Class 2B trucks sold in 1999  Approximately 6.4% of all Class 1 & 2 trucks sold  Virtually all were pick-ups, SUVs and large vans  82% were pick-ups  Virtually all manufactured by Chevy, Ford, GM, or GMC  Approximately 1/3 had diesel engines  Class 2B trucks are generally 1 ton or 3⁄4 ton “Heavy Duty” or “Super Duty” models  In most cases very similar to Class 2 models from the same manufacturer  May have a larger engine  Will likely have heavy-duty springs, suspension, and transmission 

# Class 2B Trucks 8,500 – 10,000 lb GVWR

SOURCE: Davis, S. and Truett, L., Investigation of Class 2b Trucks , Oakridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2002/49, March 2002Source: R.L. Polk & Co.Source: R.L. Polk & Co.11 

# Heavy Duty Trucks Most Popular Class 8 Tractor Models

Freightliner Columbia #1 Volvo VN Series #2

Freightliner Century

#4 Peterbuilt 379 (discontinued in 2007) Peterbuilt 389 #3

International 9200 #7

Kenworth T660 #6

Kenworth W900 #8

Photo Credit: Manufacturer websites12 

# Heavy Duty Trucks Example of Variety of Configurations within a Single “Model”

Freightliner Columbia Cab Options Freightliner Columbia 21% market share new tractor registrations

Photo Credit: Freightliner websiteSource: R.L. Polk & Co.Source: R.L. Polk & Co.15 

# Heavy Duty Trucks Most Popular Class 3-4 Straight Truck Models

Ford E450 Class 3 Class 4

Ford F350 Ford E350 Ford F450

Chevy 3500

Chevy 4500 Chevy G30 GMC W Series Isuzu NPR

Mitsubishi FE GMC 3500

Photo Credit: Manufacturer websiteSource: R.L. Polk & Co.17 

# Heavy Duty Trucks Most Popular Class 6 Straight Truck Models

Ford F650 International

4300 4400 #1

FL70 M2-106 Freightliner #2

#3

7500 8500 GMC #4

Hino 268 #5

Sterling Acterra #10

Photo Credit: Manufacturer websiteSource: R.L. Polk & Co.Source: R.L. Polk & Co.Source: R.L. Polk & Co.21 

# Heavy Duty Trucks Most Popular Class 8 Straight Truck Models

Kenworth T800 #2

TerraPro

Refuse Mack

Granite #1

Sterling Acterra #3

Intl 7400 #7 FLD Freightliner

M2-106 #4

M2-112 #15

Photo Credit: Manufacturer websites

### Summary of Manufacturer Market Shares

Source: R.L. Polk & Co.23 

# HDV Manufacturer Corporate Structure

 Daimler Trucks NA  Freightliner  Freightliner Custom Chassis  Sterling Truck  Western Star  General Motors  Chevrolet  GMC  Navistar International  International Trucks  Workhorse Custom Chassis  PACCAR  Kenworth  Peterbilt  Volvo  Volvo  Mack

 Parent  Subsidiary24 

# Corporate Parent HDV Market Share

CLASS 3 - 8 CLASS 6 - 8

Source: R.L. Polk & Co.Source: R.L. Polk & Co.26 

# Heavy Duty Trucks Fleet Size of In-use Trucks

Source: R.L. Polk & Co.27 

# Heavy Duty Trucks Fleet Purchase Behaviour

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vehicle Inventory & Use Survey, 2002.28 

# Heavy Duty Trucks Fleet Age Distribution

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vehicle Inventory & Use Survey, 2002.29 

# Heavy Duty Trucks Estimated VMT and Fuel Use by Class/Type

Source: M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC.30 

# Heavy Duty Trucks Estimated VMT and Fuel Use by Class/Type

Source: M.J. Bradley& Associates LLC

# Commercial Trailers32 

# Commercial Trailers Trailer Types

VAN

REFRIGERATED VAN

CONTAINER CHASSIS FLAT BED

FLAT BED DROP DECK

LOW BED DUMP

TANKS

Photo Credit: Manufacturer websites[1] Tanks hauling hazardous chemicals [2] dry bulk (i.e. cement) [3] Wood chips Source: R.L. Polk & Co.TOP 5: 74% of total market and 89% of VAN type trailers Next 5: 10% of total market and 7% of VAN type trailers Source: R.L. Polk & Co.Top 10 manufacturers don’t make “specialty” trailers other than FLATBEDs Specialty trailer manufacturers typically only make one type of trailer In each specialty category Top 2 manuf generally have 50%+ market share Source: R.L. Polk & Co.36 

# Summary

 Analysis covers all HDVs greater than 10,000 lb GVWR (Class 3 – Class 8) registered between 2003 and 2007  On average 684,000 new HDVs registered each year  Class 3 trucks, 30% of new registrations  Class 8 trucks, 30% of new registrations  Class 4 – 7 trucks, each between 6% and 11%  The largest subset of newly registered HDVs were Class 8 TRACTORS (713,000), followed by large (Class 3) PICK UP trucks (573,000)  Class 8 tractors represent 22% of new HDV registrations and 68% of new Class 8 truck registrations 

### Heavy Duty Truck Types/Uses37 

# Summary

 Of all STRAIGHT TRUCKS, more than 50% are likely equipped with some kind of box or flat bed body and are used to haul freight  Trucks registered to CONSTRUCTION companies represent 13% of straight trucks (6% of all HDVs)  Trucks registered to SANITATION/REFUSE companies represent 2% of straight trucks (1% of all HDVs)  Other HDV types with large numbers of new registrations include-  MOTOR HOME (Class 3 – 8): 262,000 (8% of all HDVs)  SCHOOL BUS (most Class 7): 148,000 (4% of all HDVs) 

### Heavy Duty Truck Types/Uses38 

### Heavy Duty Truck Market Share
 Manufacturing of larger trucks is dominated by a few, mostly American, “truck” manufacturers  Class 8 TRACTOR: Freightliner, International, Peterbuilt, Kenworth, Volvo (90% for top 5)  Class 8 STRAIGHT/VOCATIONAL: Mack, International, Sterling, Peterbuilt, Kenworth, Freightliner (88% for top 6)  Manufacturing of smaller trucks (Class 3 and 4) is dominated by the “Big 3 auto” manufacturers:  Ford, Chevrolet, GMC, Dodge (89%)  Isuzu, Mitsubishi (10%)  Class 6 trucks are produced in significant numbers by both the “truck” and “auto” manufacturers 

# Summary39 

### Heavy Duty Truck Fuel Use

 Class 8 tractors account for approximately 57% of annual VMT and 67% of annual fuel used by new Class 3 - 8 HDVs  Other Class 8 trucks & buses account for about 13% of annual VMT and fuel  School Buses 1.9% of fuel  Transit buses 1.5% of fuel  Vocational Trucks 2.8% of fuel  Other Straight trucks 6.0% of fuel  Class 3 trucks account for 30% of new HDV sales, but only 17% of annual VMT and 10% of annual fuel use 

# Summary40 

### Heavy Duty Truck Fleet Size
 At the end of 2007 there were 11.6 million HDVs registered in the U.S.  51% of this current in-use fleet are Class 8 trucks  Class 8 TRACTORS represent 21% of all in-use HDVs and 39% of in-use Class 8 trucks  Owner-operator trucks represent 35% of the total in-use fleet, but only 18% of in-use Class 8 trucks  61% of all in-use HDVs are in fleets with less than 10 trucks  45% of in-use Class 8 trucks are in fleets with less than 10 trucks 

# Summary41  Between 2003 - 2007 1.1 million commercial trailers were registered in the U.S. (average 215,000/year)  1.5x as many new trailers as new Class 8 tractors  Dry VANS and REFRIGERATED VANS together accounted for 68% of new trailer registrations  FLATBED and FLAT BED DROP DECK trailers = 10%  CONTAINER CHASSIS = 7%  All other “specialty” trailers (DUMP, TANK, GRAIN, HOPPER, etc.) = 15%  55% of newly registered trailers are 53 feet long, and virtually all others are shorter (24 – 52 feet)  75% of newly registered VANS are 53 feet long, and virtually all others are shorter (24 – 52 feet) 

### Commercial Trailer Types/Uses 

# Summary42 

# Summary

 74% of trailers built by 5 manufacturers  Great Dane, Wabash National, Utility Trailer Manufacturing, Hyundai, and Stoughton Trailers  Primarily build VAN, REFRIGERATED VAN, CONTAINER CHASSIS and FLAT BED trailers  89% market share for “box type” trailers  The next 5 largest trailer manufacturers have only 10% market share  Primarily build VAN, CONTAINER CHASSIS, FLAT BED and FLAT BED DROP DECK trailers 

### Commercial Trailer Market Share43 

# Summary

 Most “specialty” trailers are built by manufactures that specialize in only one or two types of trailer  Specialty trailer manufacturers do not build VAN or FLAT BED trailers  50 different companies have top-10 market share in at least on type of trailer  For all types of trailers except FLAT BED and DUMP, the top two manufacturers have 55% - 99% market share  Market for FLAT BED and DUMP trailers is more fragmented  Larger number of manufacturers and more evenly distributed market shares  No manufacturer of DUMP trailers has more than 12% market share 

### Commercial Trailer Market Share44 

# Appendix

Data Sources & Analysis Methodology45 

# Main Data Source Polk Automotive TIPNETTM Database – Industry Sales Data
 Database of all heavy-duty vehicles registered in the U.S.  Can track vehicles currently registered (current fleet)  Can track new registrations in any year (sales)  Individual vehicles identified by their Vehicle Identification Number (VIN)  Encodes information such as MODEL YEAR, WEIGHT CLASS, VEHICLE TYPE, CAB TYPE, MAKE & MODEL  Database populated by Polk based on “decoding” the VIN  Includes registering company information  Polk assigns a REGISTRATION VOCATION based on the type of business the registering company is in  A separate database tracks commercial trailers  New registrations only - can not determine composition of actual current fleet46 

### Limitations of Polk Data  VIN is generally assigned by the chassis manufacturer  For most trucks does not include the type of vocational body installed (freight box, tank, dump, etc)  REGISTRATION VOCATION can be used to infer body type, with limitations  Example : many but not all trucks with registration vocation SANITATION/REFUSE will be refuse trucks; some will be service trucks, freight trucks, etc.  VIN includes truck MAKE and MODEL, but “MODEL” is generally broadly defined by the manufacturer  Single MODEL may include a range of engine sizes  Single MODEL may include a number of cab types (including both day cabs and sleeper cabs for tractors) 

# Main Data Source47 

### Estimates of VMT and Fuel Use

 U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 27, 2008; ORNL-6981, Tables 5.1, 5.2, 5.4  U.S. Department of Transportation, National Transit Database, 2005; Table 17 and 19  Nathan & Associates, Motor Coach Industry Census 2008, for the American Bus Association 

# Other Data Sources

 Davis, S. and Truett, L., Investigation of Class 2b Trucks, Oakridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2002/49, March 2002 

### Class 2b Trucks

 Truck manufacturer web sites



### Truck Model Data  U.S. Census Bureau, Vehicle Inventory & Use Survey, 2002 

### Fleet Purchase Behaviour48 

# Analysis Methodology Polk Automotive TIPNETTM Database – Industry Sales Data
 Vehicles were separated into weight classes based on the VINdefined weight class assigned by the manufacturer  Vehicles were separated by type based on either the VIN-defined vehicle type assigned by the manufacturer, or based on the “registration vocation” assigned by Polk  Unambiguous VIN-defined vehicle types include: Tractor (combination truck), Pick-up, Van, Step Van, Motor Home, Fire Truck, Emergency Vehicle, School Bus, and Bus Non-school (Transit Bus or Coach Bus)  Other straight trucks (non-tractors) were separated into categories based on vocation registration (i.e. perceived use) – these categories are approximate only  Example: the majority of trucks with registration vocation “Sanitation/Refuse” will be refuse haulers, but some will be other types of trucks used by sanitation companies49 

# Analysis Methodology Estimated VMT and Fuel Use by Class/Type
 For each type of HDV, total annual fleet VMT and FUEL USE from new trucks were estimated as follows:  VMT (miles) = # of Trucks x Average Annual Mileage (miles/truck)  FUEL (gallons) = VMT ÷ Average Fuel Economy (MPG)  For each type of HDV the number of trucks was taken from the Polk TIPNETTM database (new registrations last five years)  For each class/type of HDV average annual mileage and average fuel economy was taken from U.S. Department of Energy statistics or from other industry sources.

### Contact ICCT

1225 Eye Street, NW Suite 900 Washington, DC 20005 (202) 204-2383 1 Post Street, Suite 2700 San Francisco, CA 94104 (415) 399-9019 www.theicct.org The goal of the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is to dramatically reduce conventional pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from personal, public, and goods transportation in order to improve air quality and human health, and mitigate climate change. The Council is made up of leading government officials and experts from around the world that participate as individuals based on their experience with air quality and transportation issues. The ICCT promotes best practices and comprehensive solutions to improve vehicle emissions and efficiency, increase fuel quality and sustainability of alternative fuels, reduce pollution from the in-use fleet, and curtail emissions from international goods movement.