Comparison of RFS2 Ethanol Transport Vapor EF Estimates 12/4/2009

NPRM DRIA version: 

= 0.23 x (10.2137 g/mmBTU x 115000 BTU/gal) / 76000 BTU/gal

3.555 g/mmBTU

0.270 g/gallon

"AQ version" of impacts XLS (but this wasn't actually used for AQ, which used ORNL-based county impacts): 

= 0.23 x (14.94 g/mmBTU x 115000 BTU/gal) / 76000 BTU/gal

5.200 g/mmBTU

0.395 g/gallon

AQ modeling weighted avg of all modes & volumes transferred:

Delta EISA-RFS1 2.96 g/gallon

Delta EISA-AEO 2.97 g/gallon

FRM version of impacts XLS (uses just the high-rfs1 value from above as approximation of all cases)

 Delta Low-RFS1 2.41 g/gallon

 Delta Mid-RFS1 2.29 g/gallon

 Delta High-RFS1 2.19 g/gallon

 Delta Low-AEO 2.04 g/gallon

 Delta Mid-AEO 2.04 g/gallon

 Delta High-AEO 2.04 g/gallon

Pct Change from earlier to later:

Ratio of AQ avg EF to NPRM DRIA EF: 10.95 995.4%

Ratio of FRM EF to AQ avg EF: 0.74 -26.1%

Ratio of FRM EF to NPRM DRIA EF: 8.10 709.7%

charvey: 12/4/09

10.2137 is earlier NPRM number that only attributes half of terminal 

losses to refinery-to-terminal side (vs terminal to pump side), whereas 

later 14.94 value used in AQ version of upstream XLS attributes all 

terminal losses to refinery side of terminal. 

charvey: 12/4/09

This value is used in the FRM upstream [Impact 

Calculations RFS2 12_17_09.xls] spreadsheet as 

reasonable approximation for all cases. 

EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0161-DRAFT-2995.xls: EF_cmppage 1 of 5 printed 1/19/2010 7:39 AM
2022 Ethanol Vapor Losses during Transport 12/4/2009

(all loading & unloading from plant to blending terminal)

Case Bgal VOC Total Total upstream

Modeled EtOH Tons/yr g/gallon VOC Delta

NPRM (Impacts xls) RFS1 6.7

AEO 13.18

EISA 34.14

 Delta EISA-RFS1 27.09 11,961 0.40 46,702

 Delta EISA-AEO 20.96 9,110 0.39 -17,501

AQ modeled values RFS1 7.05 20,132 2.59

AQ modeled values AEO 13.18 39,811 2.74

AQ modeled values EISA 34.14 108,499 2.88

 Delta EISA-RFS1 27.09 88,367 2.96

 Delta EISA-AEO 20.96 68,688 2.97

Corrected FRM Basis RFS1 7.05 18,901 2.43

Corrected FRM Basis AEO 13.18 36,874 2.54

Corrected FRM Basis EISA 34.14 84,077 2.23

 Delta EISA-RFS1 27.09 65,176 2.18

 Delta EISA-AEO 20.96 47,203 2.04

Interpolated: 

FRM Control Low 17.49 46,580 2.42

FRM Control Mid 22.16 57,097 2.34

FRM Control High 33.24 82,050 2.24

 Delta Low-RFS1 10.44 27,679 2.41 62,420 if only change

 Delta Mid-RFS1 15.11 38,196 2.29 72,937 from NPRM

 Delta High-RFS1 26.19 63,149 2.19 97,890 is this issue

 Delta Low-AEO 4.31 9,706 2.04 -16,905 if only change

 Delta Mid-AEO 8.98 20,224 2.04 -6,387 from NPRM

 Delta High-AEO 20.06 45,176 2.04 18,565 is this issue

Total upstream VOC impacts

Instead of NPRM VOC reduction of 17,500 tons relative to AEO ref case,

FRM High EtOH case would increase VOC by 18,600 tons.

I.e., change from NPRM is +36,100 tons VOC, considering only this issue.

charvey: 12/4/09

This value is used in the FRM upstream [Impacts Calc 

RFS2...xls] spreadsheet for all cases. 

EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0161-DRAFT-2995.xls: Summary page 2 of 5 printed 1/19/2010 7:39 AM
2022 Ethanol Vapor Losses during Transport

(all loading & unloading from plant to blending terminal)

Bgal Tons/yr of Ethanol Vapor (VOC) : Total Total 

EtOH H_Ld_VOC H_ULd_VOC R_Ld_VOC R_ULd_VOC W_Ld_VOC W_ULd_VOC H-R_VOC R-H_VOC W-H_VOC R-W_VOC W-R_VOCLocTrkVOC Tons/yr g/gallon

AQ modeled values RFS1 7.05 761 694 4,435 3,559 18 527 74 0.0 73 259 0.0 9,733 20,132 2.59

AQ modeled values AEO 13.18 1,359 1,239 8,530 7,379 167 765 101 4.4 95 232 4.4 19,935 39,811 2.74

AQ modeled values EISA 34.14 4,104 3,742 18,430 16,089 882 2,626 31 11.7 16 352 11.7 62,204 108,499 2.88

Corrected FRM Basis RFS1 7.05 761 627 4,435 3,528 18 624 74 0.0 0.0 273 0.0 8,562 18,901 2.43

Corrected FRM Basis AEO 13.18 1,359 1,148 8,530 7,312 167 922 101 0.1 0.0 264 4.2 17,065 36,874 2.54

Corrected FRM Basis EISA 34.14 4,165 3,720 18,364 15,657 644 2,564 89 0.3 0.0 555 12.3 38,305 84,077 2.23

Interpolated: 

FRM Control Low 17.49 1,936 1,677 10,552 9,028 265 1,260 99 0.1 0.0 324 5.9 21,433 46,580 2.42

FRM Control Mid 22.16 2,562 2,250 12,744 10,887 371 1,626 96 0.2 0.0 389 7.7 26,165 57,097 2.34

FRM Control High 33.24 4,045 3,610 17,942 15,299 624 2,493 89 0.3 0.0 543 12.0 37,393 82,050 2.24

EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0161-DRAFT-2995.xls: Nat_EtOH page 3 of 5 printed 1/19/2010 7:39 AM
2022 Ethanol Transport Volumes, as Kton (mass loaded & unloaded to/from each transport mode from plant to blending terminal)

Bgal Kt Liquid Ethanol handled: Total Kton

EtOH Trk_Ktmi RR_Ktmi Wtr_Ktmi H_Ld_KtH_ULd_Kt R_Ld_KtR_ULd_Kt W_Ld_Kt W_ULd_Kt H-R_Trf R-H_Trf W-H_Trf R-W_Trf W-R_Trf Loc_Ktmi LocTrkKt handled

AQ modeled values RFS1 7.05 228,831 18,436,891 1,565,254 3,131 3,129 18,261 16,056 170 2,377 305 0.0 302 2,509 0.0 138,811 20,952 67,192

AQ modeled values AEO 13.18 436,498 30,543,455 2,415,480 5,597 5,589 35,120 33,292 1,617 3,451 416 18.1 391 2,243 18.1 268,368 42,915 130,667

AQ modeled values EISA 34.14 1,053,071 49,422,639 3,628,079 16,898 16,883 75,877 72,590 8,545 11,846 128 48.1 65 3,415 48.1 695,386 133,907 340,250

Corrected FRM Basis RFS1 7.05 290,156 18,630,606 1,498,611 3,131 2,827 18,261 15,919 170 2,816 305 0.0 0.0 2,646 0.0 131,712 18,431 64,505

Corrected FRM Basis AEO 13.18 491,458 30,650,028 2,538,867 5,596 5,180 35,119 32,991 1,617 4,161 417 0.4 0.0 2,561 17.2 253,239 36,736 124,396

Corrected FRM Basis EISA 34.14 1,164,335 47,822,752 3,905,640 17,149 16,786 75,607 70,643 6,240 11,568 365 1.2 0.0 5,379 50.7 534,322 82,460 286,248

Interpolated: 

FRM Control Low 17.49 629,822 34,181,251 2,819,916 7,972 7,567 43,445 40,734 2,567 5,684 406 0.6 0.0 3,141 24.1 311,038 46,138 157,678

FRM Control Mid 22.16 779,742 38,007,426 3,124,441 10,546 10,152 52,466 49,123 3,597 7,334 394 0.7 0.0 3,768 31.6 373,665 56,326 193,739

FRM Control High 33.24 1,135,442 47,085,374 3,846,952 16,653 16,288 73,869 69,026 6,041 11,250 367 1.2 0.0 5,258 49.3 522,253 80,496 279,299

EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0161-DRAFT-2995.xls: Nat_Kt page 4 of 5 printed 1/19/2010 7:39 AM
2022 Ethanol Transport Volumes, as Kton (mass loaded & unloaded to/from each transport mode from plant to blending terminal)

Bgal

EtOH

AQ modeled values RFS1 7.05

AQ modeled values AEO 13.18

AQ modeled values EISA 34.14

Corrected FRM Basis RFS1 7.05

Corrected FRM Basis AEO 13.18

Corrected FRM Basis EISA 34.14

Interpolated: 

FRM Control Low 17.49

FRM Control Mid 22.16

FRM Control High 33.24

Ktmi/Kt should be total miles?

these should match: these should match: these should match: These look more like miles/trip.

loaded unloaded loaded unloaded loaded unloaded Truck Rail Barge

H_Kt H_Kt R_Kt R_Kt W_Kt W_Kt Miles Miles Miles

13,910 13,910 18,565 18,565 2,679 2,679 26.4 993 584

27,463 27,463 35,555 35,554 3,860 3,860 25.7 859 626

83,965 83,964 76,053 76,053 11,959 11,960 20.8 650 303

12,347 12,347 18,565 18,565 2,816 2,816 34.2 1,004 532

23,965 23,965 35,553 35,553 4,178 4,178 31.1 862 608

58,380 58,381 76,023 76,023 11,619 11,619 29.1 629 336

31,042 31,042 43,875 43,875 5,708 5,708 30.3 779 494

38,710 38,710 52,892 52,892 7,366 7,366 29.8 719 424

56,903 56,903 74,285 74,285 11,299 11,299 29.1 634 340

EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0161-DRAFT-2995.xls: Nat_Kt page 5 of 5 printed 1/19/2010 7:39 AM