From: Rosenstock, Steven [mailto:SRosenstock@eei.org] 

Sent: Monday, December 05, 2011 6:28 PM 

To: Richard Parker; Katie Coughlin 

Cc: Meyers, Aaron; Alex Hofmann; Andrew Delaski; Aris Marantan; Art Rosenfeld; Bob Saint; Bob Smith; 

Brenda Edwards; Brian Coffey; Caitlin Johnson; Carlos Gaytan; Caskey, John; Charlie Drexler; Charlie 

Stevens; Chris Bolduc; Chris Brown; Clark Silcox; Creevy, Jim; Dan Cohen; Daniel Young; David Flaten; 

Emily Marchetti; Eric Peterson; Freeman, Jeremiah; Gary Fernstrom; Greg Coulter; Greg Rosenquist; 

Hirsch, Bruce R; James Lass; Jennifer Tiedeman; Corkran, Jerry L; Jerry Hodge; Jerry Schoen; Jim Raba; 

Joanna Mauer; John Cymbalsky; John Rossetti; Ken Winder; Mahesh P. Sampat; Matthew Nardotti; 

Maxine Savitz; Meg Waltner; Michael Hyland; Michael Rivest; Millure, Dave; Pamela Costello; Phil Harter; 

Phil Hopkinson; Polinski, Raymond; Puesh Kumar; Rick Anderson; Rob Greeson; Robert Berman; Robert 

van Buskirk; Robin Roy; Ryan, Paul; Scott Beck; Simmons, Chuck; Nadel, Steve; Ted Johnstone; Thomas 

Petrosino; Tim Ballo; Tom Eckman; Wes Patterson; Zhimei Luo 

Subject: RE: MVLI LCC & NIA with 2010 material prices 

Greetings! 

Below is information on recent published data on power prices that I could find. 

Wholesale Market Prices in 2011 are significantly lower than prices in 2008. 

To be analytically consistent, if it is important to use the most recent costs of 

transformers, isn’t it just as important to use the most recent costs for power (or average 

of 2010 and 2011), so that the savings in the LCC can be projected using the most 

updated information? 

EIA wholesale price data from January 1 through mid or late November, 2011: 

http://205.254.135.7/electricity/wholesale/ 

http://pjm.com/documents/reports/~/media/documents/reports/state-ofmarket/2011/2011q1-som-pjm-sec4.ashx 
http://www.ferc.gov/market‐oversight/reports‐analyses/st‐mkt‐ovr/som‐rpt‐2010.pdf

http://energy.aol.com/2011/08/08/wholesale‐electricity‐bumpy‐in‐2011/      

According to the EIA, average on-peak spot electricity prices varied widely throughout the US from 

January - June 2011, much more so than in the same period in 2010. Western prices fell 14 - 26%, 

Midwest and Southeast prices fell by about 4%; and Texas and Northeast prices were up 4 - 13%. 

Steve Rosenstock 

Manager, Energy Solutions 

Edison Electric Institute 

srosenstock@eei.org

202-508-5465 

From: Richard Parker [mailto:richardparkerdc@gmail.com] 

Sent: Monday, December 05, 2011 5:41 PM 

To: Katie Coughlin 
Cc: Meyers, Aaron; Alex Hofmann; Andrew Delaski; Aris Marantan; Art Rosenfeld; Bob Saint; Bob Smith; 

Brenda Edwards; Brian Coffey; Caitlin Johnson; Carlos Gaytan; Caskey, John; Charlie Drexler; Charlie 

Stevens; Chris Bolduc; Chris Brown; Clark Silcox; Creevy, Jim; Dan Cohen; Daniel Young; David Flaten; 

Emily Marchetti; Eric Peterson; Freeman, Jeremiah; Gary Fernstrom; Greg Coulter; Greg Rosenquist; 

Hirsch, Bruce R; James Lass; Jennifer Tiedeman; Corkran, Jerry L; Jerry Hodge; Jerry Schoen; Jim Raba; 

Joanna Mauer; John Cymbalsky; John Rossetti; Ken Winder; Mahesh P. Sampat; Matthew Nardotti; 

Maxine Savitz; Meg Waltner; Michael Hyland; Michael Rivest; Millure, Dave; Pam Costello; Phil Harter; 

Phil Hopkinson; Polinski, Raymond; Puesh Kumar; Rick Anderson; Rob Greeson; Robert Berman; Robert 

van Buskirk; Robin Roy; Ryan, Paul; Scott Beck; Simmons, Chuck; Nadel, Steve; Rosenstock, Steven; Ted 

Johnstone; Thomas Petrosino; Tim Ballo; Tom Eckman; Wes Patterson; Zhimei Luo 

Subject: Re: MVLI LCC & NIA with 2010 material prices 

Aaron and other colleagues, 

The attached spreadsheet for DL 5 (see Plot Setup worksheet) contains Navigant's simplified 

price curve with columns added to reflect the price delta in absolute and percentage terms for 

increases in efficiency within each steel grade. Going from EL0 to EL 1 for M3 core steel 

increases price by $5,479 (using 2010 data) and $4,660 (using 2011 data). So the 2011 delta is 

smaller, reflecting the lower price of M3 in 2011. Paradoxically, the percentage increase in MSP 

going from EL0 to EL1 is higher when one uses 2011 prices because lower steel prices depress 

base case as well as standards case. Remember also that 2011 engineering plots do NOT reflect 

optimized designs -- an artifact of our analysis which would tend to upwardly bias the 

incremental cost of improved efficiency in the 2011 case. 

FYI: the attached table also contains a couple of extra columns, added for ease of reference, that 

computes the deltas for amorphous vs silicon steel as EL increases, for both 2011 prices and 

2012 prices. 

Hope this helps. 

Richard 

On Mon, Dec 5, 2011 at 3:39 PM, Katie Coughlin <kcoughlin@lbl.gov> wrote: 

Hi Aaron, 

I don't have the results in front of me, but what you refer can be caused by a drop in the price of 

the base case unit that is larger than the price drop for the more efficient units. 

If that happens, even though all prices may go down, the incremental first cost will go up. If you 

compare the engineering cost curves you'll be able to see if this is what's happening. 

Katie

On Mon, Dec 5, 2011 at 11:58 AM, Meyers, Aaron <Aaron.Meyers@cooperindustries.com> 

wrote: 

Richard,

I just now found the time to review the revised information you had sent out with 2010 prices.  

Something isn’t making sense to me.  My assumption was that this version would include the corrected
start of benefits date (2016 rather than 2010), and would use $1.88 for M3 core steel rather than $1.30.  

With the price of all core steels being much higher in the 2010 analysis, I would have expected to see the

incremental first cost go up; however, the results show quite the opposite.  For instance, DL5 EL1 the

incremental first cost is $4794 using the 2011 data, yet it is only $2293 using the higher prices from the

2010 data.  What am I missing?  Can someone explain this?

Thanks and Best Regards,

Aaron

From: Richard Parker [mailto:richardparkerdc@gmail.com] 

Sent: Wednesday, November 30, 2011 9:35 PM 

To: Alex Hofmann; Andrew Delaski; Aris Marantan; Art Rosenfeld; Bob Saint; Bob Smith; Brenda 

Edwards; Brian Coffey; Caitlin Johnson; Carlos Gaytan; Caskey, John; Charlie Drexler; Charlie Stevens; 

Chris Bolduc; Chris Brown; Clark Silcox; Creevy, Jim; Dan Cohen; Daniel Young; David Flaten; Emily 

Marchetti; Eric Peterson; Freeman, Jeremiah; Gary Fernstrom; Greg Coulter; Greg Rosenquist; Hirsch, 

Bruce R; James Lass; Jennifer Tiedeman; Corkran, Jerry L; Jerry Hodge; Jerry Schoen; Jim Raba; Joanna 

Mauer; John Cymbalsky; John Rossetti; Katie Coughlin; Ken Winder; Mahesh P. Sampat; Matthew 

Nardotti; Maxine Savitz; Meg Waltner; Meyers, Aaron; Michael Hyland; Michael Rivest; Millure, Dave; Pam 

Costello; Phil Harter; Phil Hopkinson; Polinski, Raymond; Puesh Kumar; Richard W. Parker; Rick 

Anderson; Rob Greeson; Robert Berman; Robert van Buskirk; Robin Roy; Ryan, Paul; Scott Beck; 

Simmons, Chuck; Steve Nadel; Steve Rosenstock; Ted Johnstone; Thomas Petrosino; Tim Ballo; Tom 

Eckman; Wes Patterson; Zhimei Luo 

Subject: Fwd: MVLI LCC & NIA with 2010 material prices

 

Dear Colleagues, 

Attached, as requested and promised, is the corrected LCC/NIA for liquid immersed 

transformers based on 2010 materials prices. Thanks to Chris and Katie for quickly following 

through on this. 

All best, 

Richard Parker 

Attached are the corrected LCC and downstream NIA results based on the 

2010 material prices. Please distribute as you see fit. 

-- Chris 

---- 

Chris Bolduc 
Energy Efficiency Standards Group 

Environmental Energy Technologies Division 

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

t. 416-535-7546

c. 647-832-4021