From: Rosenstock, Steven [mailto:SRosenstock@eei.org]

Sent: Monday, December 05, 2011 6:28 PM

To: Richard Parker; Katie Coughlin

Cc: Meyers, Aaron; Alex Hofmann; Andrew Delaski; Aris Marantan; Art Rosenfeld; Bob Saint; Bob Smith; Brenda Edwards; Brian Coffey; Caitlin Johnson; Carl os Gaytan; Caskey, John; Charlie Drexler; Charlie
Stevens; Chris Bolduc; Chris Brown; Clark Silcox; Cr eevy, Jim; Dan Cohen; Daniel Young; David Flaten; Emily Marchetti; Eric Peterson; Freeman, Jeremiah; Ga ry Fernstrom; Greg Coulter; Greg Rosenquist;
Hirsch, Bruce R; James Lass; Jennifer Tiedeman; Cork ran, Jerry L; Jerry Hodge; Jerry Schoen; Jim Raba; Joanna Mauer; John Cymbalsky; John Rossetti; Ke n Winder; Mahesh P. Sampat; Matthew Nardotti; Maxine Savitz; Meg Waltner; Michael Hyland; Michael Rivest; Millure, Dave; Pamela Costello; Phil Harter; Phil Hopkinson; Polinski, Raymond; Puesh Kumar; Ri ck Anderson; Rob Greeson; Robert Berman; Robert van Buskirk; Robin Roy; Ryan, Paul; Scott Beck; Simm ons, Chuck; Nadel, Steve; Ted Johnstone; Thomas
Petrosino; Tim Ballo; Tom Eckman; Wes Patterson; Zhimei Luo Subject: RE: MVLI LCC & NIA with 2010 material prices



### Greetings!

Below is information on recent published dat a on power prices that I could find. Wholesale Market Prices in 2011 are significantly lower than prices in 2008.

To be analytically consistent, if it is im portant to use the mo st recent costs of transformers, isn’t it just as important to use the most re cent costs for power (or average of 2010 and 2011), so that the savings in th e LCC can be projected using the most updated information?

EIA wholesale price data from January 1 through mid or late November, 2011: http://205.254.135.7/electricity/wholesale/

http://pjm.com/documents/reports/~ /media/documents/reports/state-ofmarket/2011/2011q1-som-pjm-sec4.ashxhttp://www.ferc.gov/market

‐ oversight/reports

‐ analyses/st

‐ mkt

‐ ovr/som

‐ rpt

‐ 2010.pdf

http://energy.aol.com/2011/08/08/wholesale

‐ electricity

‐ bumpy

‐ in

‐ 2011/

According to the EIA, average on-peak spot electric ity prices varied widely throughout the US from January - June 2011, much more so than in the sa me period in 2010. Western prices fell 14 - 26%, Midwest and Southeast prices fell by about 4%; an d Texas and Northeast prices were up 4 - 13%.



### Steve Rosenstock Manager, Energy Solutions

Edison Electric Institute srosenstock@eei.org

202-508-5465

From: Richard Parker [ mailto:richardparkerdc@gmail.com ]

Sent: Monday, December 05, 2011 5:41 PM

To: Katie CoughlinCc: Meyers, Aaron; Alex Hofmann; Andrew Delaski; Ar is Marantan; Art Rosenfeld; Bob Saint; Bob Smith; Brenda Edwards; Brian Coffey; Caitlin Johnson; Carl os Gaytan; Caskey, John; Charlie Drexler; Charlie
Stevens; Chris Bolduc; Chris Brown; Clark Silcox; Cr eevy, Jim; Dan Cohen; Daniel Young; David Flaten; Emily Marchetti; Eric Peterson; Freeman, Jeremiah; Gary Fernstrom; Greg Coulter; Greg Rosenquist;
Hirsch, Bruce R; James Lass; Jennifer Tiedeman; Cork ran, Jerry L; Jerry Hodge; Jerry Schoen; Jim Raba; Joanna Mauer; John Cymbalsky; John Rossetti; Ke n Winder; Mahesh P. Sampat; Matthew Nardotti; Maxine Savitz; Meg Waltner; Michael Hyland; Michae l Rivest; Millure, Dave; Pam Costello; Phil Harter; Phil Hopkinson; Polinski, Raymond; Puesh Kumar; Ri ck Anderson; Rob Greeson; Robert Berman; Robert van Buskirk; Robin Roy; Ryan, Paul; Scott Beck; Simm ons, Chuck; Nadel, Steve; Rosenstock, Steven; Ted
Johnstone; Thomas Petrosino; Tim Ballo; Tom Eckman; Wes Patterson; Zhimei Luo Subject: Re: MVLI LCC & NIA with 2010 material prices



### Aaron and other colleagues,

The attached spreadsheet for DL 5 (see Plot Se tup worksheet) contains Navigant's simplified price curve with columns added to reflect the pr ice delta in absolute and percentage terms for increases in efficiency within each steel grad e. Going from EL0 to EL 1 for M3 core steel increases price by $5,479 (using 2010 data) and $4,660 (using 2011 data). So the 2011 delta is smaller, reflecting the lower pric e of M3 in 2011. Paradoxically, th e percentage increase in MSP going from EL0 to EL1 is higher when one uses 2011 prices because lower steel prices depress

base case as well as standards case. Remember also that 2011 engineering plots do NOT reflect optimized designs -- an artifact of our anal ysis which would tend to upwardly bias the incremental cost of improved efficiency in the 2011 case.

FYI: the attached table also cont ains a couple of extra columns, a dded for ease of reference, that computes the deltas for amorphous vs silicon steel as EL increases, for both 2011 prices and 2012 prices.

Hope this helps.

Richard

On Mon, Dec 5, 2011 at 3:39 PM, Katie Coughlin < kcoughlin@lbl.gov > wrote: Hi Aaron,

I don't have the results in front of me, but what you refer can be caused by a drop in the price of the base case unit that is larger than th e price drop for the more efficient units. If that happens, even though all prices may go do wn, the incremental first cost will go up. If you compare the engineering cost curves you'll be able to see if this is what's happening.

Katie

On Mon, Dec 5, 2011 at 11:58 AM, Meyers, Aaron < Aaron.Meyers@cooperindustries.com >

wrote:

Richard,

I just now found the time to review the revised information you had sent out with 2010 prices. Something isn’t making sense to me. My assumption was that this version would include the correctedstart of benefits date (2016 rather than 2010), and would use $1.88 for M3 core steel rather than $1.30.

With the price of all core steels being much higher in the 2010 analysis, I would have expected to see the

incremental first cost go up; however, the results show quite the opposite. For instance, DL5 EL1 the

incremental first cost is $4794 using the 2011 data, yet it is only $2293 using the higher prices from the

2010 data. What am I missing? Can someone explain this?

Thanks and Best Regards,

Aaron

From: Richard Parker [mailto: richardparkerdc@gmail.com ]

Sent: Wednesday, November 30, 2011 9:35 PM

To: Alex Hofmann; Andrew Delaski; Aris Marantan; Art Rosenfeld; Bob Saint; Bob Smith; Brenda Edwards; Brian Coffey; Caitlin Johnson; Carlos Gayt an; Caskey, John; Charlie Drexler; Charlie Stevens; Chris Bolduc; Chris Brown; Clark Silcox; Creevy, Jim; Dan Cohen; Daniel Young; David Flaten; Emily Marchetti; Eric Peterson; Freeman, Jeremiah; Gary Fe rnstrom; Greg Coulter; Greg Rosenquist; Hirsch,
Bruce R; James Lass; Jennifer Tiedeman; Corkran, Je rry L; Jerry Hodge; Jerry Schoen; Jim Raba; Joanna Mauer; John Cymbalsky; John Rossetti; Katie Coug hlin; Ken Winder; Mahesh P. Sampat; Matthew Nardotti; Maxine Savitz; Meg Waltner; Meyers, Aaron; Michael Hyland; Michael Rivest; Millure, Dave; Pam Costello; Phil Harter; Phil Hopkinson; Polinski, Ra ymond; Puesh Kumar; Richard W. Parker; Rick
Anderson; Rob Greeson; Robert Berman; Robert va n Buskirk; Robin Roy; Ryan, Paul; Scott Beck;
Simmons, Chuck; Steve Nadel; Steve Rosenstock; Ted Johnstone; Thomas Petrosino; Tim Ballo; Tom
Eckman; Wes Patterson; Zhimei Luo Subject: Fwd: MVLI LCC & NIA with 2010 material prices



### Dear Colleagues,

Attached, as requested and promised, is the corrected LCC/NIA for liquid immersed transformers based on 2010 materials prices. Th anks to Chris and Katie for quickly following through on this.

All best,

Richard Parker

Attached are the corrected LCC and downstream NIA results based on the 2010 material prices. Please di stribute as you see fit.

-- Chris

---- Chris Bolduc

### Energy Efficiency Standards Group Environmental Energy T echnologies Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

t. 416-535-7546

c. 647-832-4021