OAR Box 1878 

Prepped by Charmelle Mathews 

Document Number: 

.63) 11-1-42 

Docket Number: 

A-90-19 

Printed 11/28/2008 11:47:27 AM Sheet 63 of 68 

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the past iii yean ethylene rotrgmftlon per 

capita hu risen tod output haa exceeded 

GNP In three of those six yean. "I don't think 

It'a a product that'a quite dead yet," he taya. 

Looking at feedstocks, Mr. Lavie* uyi it 

Is probable Hit natural f u supplies, and 

therefore gas liquids feedstocks supplies, 

will decline over tbe oext ten yean. As a 

result, be expecta lo see a gradual increase io 

the use of heavy liquids as olefins feeds. 

By 19M, it's expected only M potest of 

ethylene in tbe US will be produced from 

natural gas liquids as compared with 75 percent la IS J7. 

World ethylene demand has risen since 

sadeqtate for nrnch of theoetf oertd decade, 

supply will require more and mor* cootlnoooj operation cf available dealkylatlon capacity, which ln turn will have an'effect on 

-P-f-'nT-pflff poCCJL -i if 

As long as demand can be supplied from 

capacity ln tbe l.eWiUUoo-to-l.M-bUlloogaljoa range, the DRI analyst sty i price 

should be in its normal relation to gasoline or 

crude oil. However, as demand requires capacity at tbe upper ead of the raise , price 

will move up to eventually bring o o "price 

sensitive" dealkylatlon units, currently 

amounting to about JM million giQjns. 

; Supply from both reformate and pyroiysis 

: Benzene and OorrVafta* Outlook 

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1932 at tbe rate of 6.6 percent a year and 

currently stands at 108 billion pounds, Mr. 

Lavach says, up from 77 billion pounds in 

ISt r By 1992, demand is expected to exceed 

125 billion pounds, averaging 1.2 percent a 

year growth. 

Capacity currently stands at 120 billion 

pounds, representing an overall operating 

rate of 90 percent "By 1992 we win probably 

have exceeded plant capacity unless new facilities are brought on stream," Mr. Lavach 

says, but vith only half the additions being 

planned around the world he feels supply 

would be In balance with demand. 

Mr. Lavach says be expects US ethylene 

demand to reach 39.3 blllioo pounds ln 1991 

Some of tbe factors Impacting tbe market 

include increased competition from krwereost feedstock producen in developing areas 

of the world and a reduced level of exported 

derivatives. 

He points out that ln 1979, export equivalents of several major ethylene derivatives 

represented about 12 percent of US ethylene 

consumption. Tbe figure dropped to 8 percent in 1955 and Mr. Lavacfa says it is possible 

that within the next ten yea n the figure will 

represent only about 4 percent of US ethylene 

consumption. 

Also, improvements In production technology or aller-ute technology for some derivatives will increase yields and lower ethylene 

requirementa. 

Richard O. Oodge,' senior consaKirt for 

DRI/McCrsw-Hlll, Inc. told tbe CMRA 

members be expects benzene demand to 

grow moderately at an average annual rate 

of 1.5 percent over the next decade. Domestic 

consumption of L9 billion galloes this year is 

projected to grow to 13 6 billion gallons ln 

1998. 

Styrene ts expected to continue tight until 

at least the early 1990's, Mr. Dodge says. 

Based oo current expansions, an additional 

950 million pounds is likely to be made available. While this total will be adequate to meet 

demand over tbe next five yeu-s, Mr. Dodge 

says exports of styrene and derivatives may 

be slow at times In order to meet domestic 

demand. Exports have been running ln the 

I*biIUon-to-1.3-billio->-pound range and this 

level could be maintained through the early 

1990's. 

For styrene, Mr. Dodge says demand for 

polystyrene is tbe driving force and he does 

not fetl li;'. ^lystyrene demaDd should be 

other than close to an average ui «J: —- i 1.5 

to ] percent per year. In fact, DRI is forecasting growth for poty-rtj-rene worldwide to be 

around 3 percent o. tr the next ten yean. 

"On the other hand, we are forecasting 

higher growth rates for polyoleflns worldwid-!." I* Mys, and adds (hat "with w-w-Mwide iio.-u.£c; of plastics and their t»»* listeria Is "au-nwt any pl*5*Jc Is in demand." 

' gasoline Is expected to increase by as much 

. as 150 million to 200 million galloes per year, 

based on current expectations, Mr. Dodge 

«y«- I) 

The lower cost supplies are expected to 

balance supply until 1993, although supply 

could be tight through 1990. Certainly. Mr. 

Dodge asserts, DO new swing dealkylatlon 

capacity will be required. As tbe knld-1990's 

approach, bowever, be says there appean to 

be a definite need for more cootlnotas operation of current dealkylatlon faculties. Past 

that period, the forecast indicates that new 

benxene capacity could be required. 

At the same time, Mr. Dodge cautions that 

in that same timeframe ethylene'demand Is 

expected to require more heavy feedstocks, 

which will increase benxene supply from that 

source and put off the need for higher coat 

dealkylation supplies. | . 

i CHEMICAL 

MARKETING REPORTER 

j tMckntWa y 

to Keep Currant 

on OwnJca) Costs 

A-90-19 

H-l-42 

| • BetWmetnytsSyl) IrAwacatamide 

j • CttorornetrtyUii iietf lytthfcii uslane 

' * Chlcy ometf ry-tj if nettiybajne 

• ! • Heiarethyttsbzar* | 

* (-Butyit-aphenylcMorosBariB 

• TrirnettivfeiyloferometlBne 

, • Trimetfiylsirytacetylene 

'• • TrimthytsayHtrOe 

Petrarch SySsm ha the witesl 'anp ol stints ratable for you synthetic reactions. From R&0 lo large | 

ccnvneroal quantities. Petrarch can supply the stonesl 

lo H yt» rwtcutar apptcab-A 

For Mormalion cat: Pen-arch Systems Sllenes. I 

2570 Peart Buck Rd..Bristol, PA 19007. (215) 761 9255 j 

HUBS I HULS AMERICA INC. 

Afiwtmiai' iStauaaa/ A/mlettc& Sfy.<$f. 

Allopurinol ' j Jndomethactn USP 

Clorazepete Dipotassium jLorazepam 

CWordiazepoxWe Base and HCL USP ; Nitrofurantoin USP 

ClomipHene Citrate USP 

Diazepam USP j 

Flurazepam HCL USP 

Furazolidone USP 

Furosefjirde USP 

!££"£&£' 

Oxazepam USP \y' - -, 

j Pentazocine Base and HCL USP X^ / 

Temazepam 

TrimethobenzamideHCL USP 

Trimethoprim USP-Anilin Free 

S.S.T. CORPORATION 

.... .V;.';..

 ,

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fm,fitln~l/tt>miMI~r.,ti . 

M l Brlg-iKm Fkwd. Cirtloa. MJ 0701! (Wl) 47">-OCO 

TMF-M:O00)}2>^t-!1 T-ln^milUM l 

CatM. SST CC-Rf CL* W»»: RCJ. MtUS I 

C. LU I cources are worldwide. Oiir service is v^oiia ctass. u 

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