CHAPTER 11. LIFE-CYCLE COST SUBGROUP ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

11.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................... 11-1

11.2 SENIOR AND LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS ............................ 11-1

11.2.1 Subgroups Definition ............................................ 11-1

11.2.2 Inputs to the Subgroup Analysis for Senior-Only and Low-Income

Households .................................................... 11-2

11.2.3 Results for Senior-Only and Low-Income Households .................. 11-3

11.3 NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HOUSEHOLDS .......................... 11-5

11.3.1 Subgroups Definition ............................................ 11-5

11.3.2 Inputs to the Subgroup Analysis for Northern and Southern Households .... 11-7

11.3.3 Results for Northern and Southern Households ....................... 11-8

LIST OF TABLES

Table 11.2.1 RECS 2001 Definitions of Low-Income Households ................... 11-2

Table 11.2.2 Comparison of Input Values for All Households, Senior-Only Households,

and Low-Income Households ..................................... 11-3

Table 11.2.3 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Senior

Households .................................................... 11-4

Table 11.2.4 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Low-Income

Households .................................................... 11-5

Table 11.3.1 Definition of Northern and Southern Regions using 5,000 HDD Criteria ... 11-6

Table 11.3.2 Definition of Northern and Southern Regions using 6,000 HDD Criteria ... 11-7

Table 11.3.3 Comparison of Input Values for All Households, Northern, and Southern

Households .................................................... 11-8

Table 11.3.4 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Northern

Households (greater than 5,000 HDD) .............................. 11-9

Table 11.3.5 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Southern

Households (less than 5,000 HDD) ................................ 11-10

Table 11.3.6 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Northern

Households (greater than 6,000 HDD) ............................. 11-11

Table 11.3.7 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Southern

Households (less than 6,000 HDD) ................................ 11-12

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

CHAPTER 11. LIFE-CYCLE COST SUBGROUP ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

11.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................... 11-1 

11.2 SENIOR AND LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS ............................ 11-1 

11.2.1 Subgroups Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 11-1 

11.2.2 Inputs to the Subgroup Analysis for Senior-Only and Low-Income 

Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-2 

11.2.3 Results for Senior-Only and Low-Income Households .................. 11-3 

11.3 NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HOUSEHOLDS .......................... 11-5 

11.3.1 Subgroups Definition ............................................ 11-5 

11.3.2 Inputs to the Subgroup Analysis for Northern and Southern Households .... 11-7 

11.3.3 Results for Northern and Southern Households ....................... 11-8 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 11.2.1 RECS 2001 Definitions of Low-Income Households ................... 11-2 

Table 11.2.2 Comparison of Input Values for All Households, Senior-Only Households, 

and Low-Income Households ..................................... 11-3 

Table 11.2.3 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Senior 

Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 11-4 

Table 11.2.4 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Low-Income 

Households. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 11-5 

Table 11.3.1 Definition of Northern and Southern Regions using 5,000 HDD Criteria .,. 11-6 

Table 11.3.2 Definition of Northern and Southern Regions using 6,000 HDD Criteria ... 11-7 

Table 11.3.3 Comparison ofInput Values for All Households, Northern, and Southern 

Households. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 11-8 

Table 11.3.4 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Northern 

Households (greater than 5,000 HDD) .............................. 11-9 

Table 11.3.5 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Southern 

Households (less than 5,000 HDD) ............................... , 11-10 

Table 11.3.6 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Northern 

Households (greater than 6,000 HDD) ............................. 11-11 

Table 11.3.7 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Southern 

Households (less than 6,000 HDD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 11-12 

ll-i 
CHAPTER 11. LIFE-CYCLE COST SUBGROUP ANALYSIS

11.1 INTRODUCTION

The intent of the consumer subgroup analysis is to evaluate impacts to identifiable groups

of consumers who may be disproportionately affected by revised national energy efficiency

standards. This is accomplished in part by analyzing the life-cycle cost (LCC) and payback

periods (PBPs) for those households that fall into identifiable groups of consumers.

In particular, DOE wishes to avoid negative impacts on identifiable population groups,

such as senior-only and low-income households, that may not be able to afford significant

increases in equipment price. For customers that are sensitive to price increases, increases in

first costs of a product can preclude the purchase of a new model of that product. As a result,

some customers may retain existing equipment longer than they otherwise would. These older

products are generally less efficient to begin with, and their efficiency may deteriorate further if

they are retained beyond their useful life.

DOE is also sensitive to the potential for revised national energy efficiency standards to

have differential impacts on households in different regions of the country. Therefore, it

evaluated the impacts of a revised standard for non-weatherized gas furnaces on northern (coldclimate) and southern (warm-climate) States.

DOE evaluated only non-weatherized gas furnaces for the consumer subgroup analysis,

since these units comprise the predominant product class, with shipments much larger than the

other product classes.

11.2 SENIOR AND LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS

11.2.1 Subgroups Definition

The consumer subgroup analysis evaluated households with senior-only occupants or low

income levels using non-weatherized gas furnaces. Senior-only households have occupants who

are all at least 65 years of age. As defined in DOE's Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s

Residential Energy Consumption Survey of 2001 (RECS 2001),' low-income households are

considered to be those at or below the "poverty line." The "poverty line" varies with household

size, head of household age, and family income. Table 11.2.1 summarizes the criteria given for

selecting low-income households from the RECS 2001 sample. DOE applied an additional

criterion to select only those low-income households who own their home, since renters do not

purchase furnaces.

11-1

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

CHAPTER 11. LIFE-CYCLE COST SUBGROUP ANALYSIS 

11.1 INTRODUCTION 

The intent of the consumer subgroup analysis is to evaluate impacts to identifiable groups 

of consumers who may be disproportionately affected by revised national energy efficiency 

standards. This is accomplished in part by analyzing the life-cycle cost (LCC) and payback 

periods (PBPs) for those households that fall into identifiable groups of consumers. 

In particular, DOE wishes to avoid negative impacts on identifiable population groups, 

such as senior-only and low-income households, that may not be able to afford significant 

increases in equipment price. For customers that are sensitive to price increases, increases in 

first costs of a product can preclude the purchase of a new model of that product. As a result, 

some customers may retain existing equipment longer than they otherwise would. These older 

products are generally less efficient to begin with, and their efficiency may deteriorate further if 

they are retained beyond their useful life. 

DOE is also sensitive to the potential for revised national energy efficiency standards to 

have differential impacts on households in different regions of the country. Therefore, it 

evaluated the impacts of a revised standard for non-weatherized gas furnaces on northern (coldclimate) and southern (warm-climate) States. 

DOE evaluated only non-weatherized gas furnaces for the consumer subgroup analysis, 

since these units comprise the predominant product class, with shipments much larger than the 

other product classes. 

11.2 SENIOR AND LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS 

11.2.1 Subgroups Definition 

The consumer subgroup analysis evaluated households with senior-only occupants or low 

income levels using non-weatherized gas furnaces. Senior-only households have occupants who 

are all at least 65 years of age. As defined in DOE's Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s 

Residential Energy Consumption Survey of2001 (RECS 2001),1 low-income households are 

considered to be those at or below the "poverty line." The "poverty line" varies with household 

size, head of household age, and family income. Table 11.2.1 summarizes the criteria given for 

selecting low-income households from the RECS 2001 sample. DOE applied an additional 

criterion to select only those low-income households who own their home, since renters do not 

purchase furnaces. 

11-1 
Table 11.2.1 RECS 2001 Definitions of Low-Income Households

Household Size Owner Age Family Income

1 65 and over less than $7,525

1 64 and under less than $8,163

2 65 and over less than $9,491

2 64 and under less than $10,507

3 Any less than $12,516

4 Any less than $16,036

5 Any less than $18,952

6 Any less than $21,389

7 Any less than $24,268

8 Any less than $27,091

9 or more Any less than $31,971

11.2.2 Inputs to the Subgroup Analysis for Senior-Only and Low-Income Households

DOE performed the consumer subgroup analysis by analyzing the LCC and payback

periods of senior-only or low-income households with the spreadsheet models used for the LCC

analysis. DOE used the same inputs in the subgroup analysis as it used in the LCC and PBP

analysis (as described in Chapter 8) for non-weatherized gas furnace households considered to

be senior-only or low-income.

Table 11.2.2 summarizes the weighted-average input values for the senior-only and lowincome households analyzed in the consumer subgroup analysis and compares them to the

weighted-average input values for all households in RECS 2001 using non-weatherized gas

furnaces. The inputs for the senior-only and low-income subgroups do not differ significantly

from the overall sample.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 11.2.1 RECS 2001 Definitions of Low-Income Households 

Household Size 

2 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 or more 

Owner Age 

65 and over 

64 and under 

65 and over 

64 and under 

Any 

Any 

Any 

Any 

Any 

Any 

Any 

Family Income 

less than $7,525 

less than $8,163 

less than $9,491 

less than $10,507 

less than $12,516 

less than $16,036 

less than $18,952 

less than $21,389 

less than $24,268 

less than $27,091 

less than $31,971 

11.2.2 Inputs to the Subgroup Analysis for Senior-Only and Low-Income Households 

DOE performed the consumer subgroup analysis by analyzing the LCC and payback 

periods of senior-only or low-income households with the spreadsheet models used for the LCC 

analysis. DOE used the same inputs in the subgroup analysis as it used in the LCC and PBP 

analysis (as described in Chapter 8) for non-weatherized gas furnace households considered to 

be senior-only or low-income. 

Table 11.2.2 summarizes the weighted-average input values for the senior-only and lowincome households analyzed in the consumer subgroup analysis and compares them to the 

weighted-average input values for all households in RECS 2001 using non-weatherized gas 

furnaces. The inputs for the senior-only and low-income subgroups do not differ significantly 

from the overall sample. 

11-2 
Table 11.2.2 Comparison of Input Values for All Households, Senior-Only Households,

and Low-Income Households

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace (NWGF)

Category All Households Senior-Only Low-Income

Household Population Data

Number of Household Records

Sum of Weights (million households)

Percent of NWGF Household Population

1880

43.5

100%

337

7.8

17.9%

152

3.4

7.8%

Weighted-Average Annual Energy Use for Baseline Furnace

Space-Heating Natural Gas Use (MMBtu)

Space-Heating Electricity Use (kWh)

56.6

496

55.3

508

51.5

488

Weighted-Average Natural Gas Prices (2006$)

Average Natural Gas Price ($/therm)

Marginal Natural Gas Price ($/therm)

1.14

1.01

1.15

1.06

1.19

1.05

Weighted-Average Electricity Prices (2006$)

Average Electricity Price (0/kWh)

Marginal Electricity Price (0/kWh)

10.8

10.7

11.0

10.4

11.2

10.5

11.2.3 Results for Senior-Only and Low-Income Households

Tables 11.2.3 and 11.2.4 summarize the LCC results for senior-only and low-income

households with non-weatherized gas furnaces. These results can be compared to the overall

results in Table 8.4.1 in Chapter 8. The tables provide the average or mean LCC and PBP, the

LCC savings relative to the base case, and the percentage of consumers for whom the LCC will

decrease compared to the base case forecast (positive benefit), those for whom the LCC will

increase compared to the base case forecast (negative impact), and those for whom the LCC will

not change because the specific design option is less efficient or the same as the base case

forecast for that house (and therefore the standard has no impact).

The senior-only and low-income consumer subgroups show the same general pattern in

average LCC savings and consumer impacts (i.e., percentage of consumers with net cost or

benefit) as the overall population. For the 81 percent annual fuel utilization efficiency (AFUE)

level, the average LCC savings and the percent of households that benefit for the subgroups is

approximately the same as for all households with non-weatherized gas furnaces (see Table 8.4.1

in Chapter 8). For the 90 percent AFUE level, the average LCC savings and the percent of

households that benefit is less favorable for senior and low-income households than for all

households. This is due to the fact that the average baseline space-heating energy use is smaller

for senior and low-income households than for all households (mainly because senior and lowincome households tend to have smaller houses), so efficiency improvement yields less energy

savings.

11-3

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 11.2.2 Comparison of Input Values for AU Households, Senior-Only Households, 

and Low-Income Households 

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace (NWGF) 

Category All Households Senior-Only Low-Income 

Household Population Data 

Number of Household Records 

Sum of Weights (million households) 

Percent ofNWGF Household Population 

1880 

43.5 

100% 

Weighted-Average Annual Energy Use for Baseline Furnace 

Space-Heating Natural Gas Use (MMBtu) 56.6 

Space-Heating Electricity Use (kWh) 

Weighted-Average Natural Gas Prices (2006$) 

Average Natural Gas Price ($/therm) 

Marginal Natural Gas Price ($/therm) 

Weighted-Average Electricity Prices (2006$) 

Average Electricity Price (¢/kWh) 

Marginal Electricity Price (¢/kWh) 

496 

1.14 

l.01 

10.8 

10.7 

11.2.3 Results for Senior-Only and Low-Income Households 

337 152 

7.8 3A 

17.9% 7.8% 

55.3 5l.5 

508 488 

1.15 1.19 

l.06 l.05 

1l.0 11.2 

lOA 10.5 

Tables 11.2.3 and 11.2.4 summarize the LCC results for senior-only and low-income 

households with non-weatherized gas furnaces. These results can be compared to the overall 

results in Table 8.4.1 in Chapter 8. The tables provide the average or mean LCC and PBP, the 

LCC savings relative to the base case, and the percentage of consumers for whom the LCC will 

decrease compared to the base case forecast (positive benefit), those for whom the LCC will 

increase compared to the base case forecast (negative impact), and those for whom the LCC will 

not change because the specific design option is less efficient or the same as the base case 

forecast for that house (and therefore the standard has no impact). 

The senior-only and low-income consumer subgroups show the same general pattern in 

average LCC savings and consumer impacts (i.e., percentage of consumers with net cost or 

benefit) as the overall population. For the 81 percent annual fuel utilization efficiency (AFUE) 

level, the average LCC savings and the percent of households that benefit for the subgroups is 

approximately the same as for all households with non-weatherized gas furnaces (see Table 8.4.1 

in Chapter 8). For the 90 percent AFUE level, the average LCC savings and the percent of 

households that benefit is less favorable for senior and low-income households than for all 

households. This is due to the fact that the average baseline space-heating energy use is smaller 

for senior and low-income households than for all households (mainly because senior and lowincome households tend to have smaller houses), so efficiency improvement yields less energy 

savmgs. 

11-3 
Table 11.2.3 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Senior

Households

Life-Cycle Cost Life-Cycle Cost Savings Payback Period

(Years) **

Design Option Average Average Households with

Average Avera e

by AFUE Installed Operating LCC

g

Savings Net No Net Median Average Price Cost Cost Impact* Benefit

78% $1,910 $10,010 $11,920

80% $1,918 $9,810 $11,728 $1 0% 99% 1% 0.7 0.8

80% Modulation $2,195 $9,892 $12,087 -$246 67% 32% 1% 42 73

(Two-Stage)

81% $1,989 $9,713 $11,702 $11 32% 32% 36% 11 22

81% Modulation $2,266 $9,796 $12,062 -$238 65% 32% 3% 39 73

(Two-Stage)

90% $2,566 $9,007 $11,573 $36 38% 32% 30% 12 18

92% $2,728 $8,854 $11,582 $17 43% 26% 31% 13 20

92% Modulation $2,965 $8,965 $11,930 -$323 80% 2.7% 17% 20 47

(Two-Stage)

92% Modulation $3,004 $9,090 $12,094 -$481 85% 2.7% 12% 22 59

(Continuous)

96% Modulation $3,614 $8,812 $12,426 -$806 88% 2.7% 10% 30 74

(Continuous)

* "No impact" means that the base case forecast furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the

level indicated, so the household is not affected.

** Based on the payback calculation, a very small change in operating cost can result in a few extremely large

paybacks, which will skew the average payback. In these cases, median is probably a better indicator.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 11.2.3 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Senior 

Households 

Life-Cycle Cost Life-Cycle Cost Savings Payback Period 

(Years)** 

Design Option Average Average Households with 

by AFUE Installed Operating Average Average 

LCC Savings Net 

No * I B:~t Median Average Price Cost Cost Impact* eftt 

78% $1,910 $10,010 $11,920 

80% $1,918 $9,810 $11,728 $1 0% 99% 1% 0.7 0.8 

80% Modulation $2,195 $9,892 $12,087 -$246 67% 32% 1% 42 73 

(Two-Stage) 

81% $1,989 $9,713 $11,702 $11 32% 32% 36% 11 22 

81 % Modulation $2,266 $9,796 $12,062 -$238 65% 32% 3% 39 73 

(Two-Stage) 

90% $2,566 $9,007 $11,573 $36 38% 32% 30% 12 18 

92% $2,728 $8,854 $11,582 $17 43% 26% 31% 13 20 

92% Modulation $2,965 $8,965 $11,930 -$323 80% 2.7% 17% 20 47 

(Two-Stage) 

92% Modulation $3,004 $9,090 $12,094 -$481 85% 2.7% 12% 22 59 

(Continuous) 

96% Modulation $3,614 $8,812 $12,426 -$806 88% 2.7% 10% 30 74 

(Continuous) 

* "No Impact" means that the base case forecast furnace assigned to the household has greater efficIency than the 

level indicated, so the household is not affected. 

** Based on the payback calculation, a very small change in operating cost can result in a few extremely large 

paybacks, which will skew the average payback. In these cases, median is probably a better indicator. 

11-4 
Table 11.2.4 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PEP Results for Low-Income

Households

Life-Cycle Cost Life-Cycle Cost Savings Payback Period

(Years)

Design Option Average Average Households with

Average Avera e

by AFUE Installed Operating LCC

g

Savings Net No Net Median Average Price Cost Cost Impact* Benefit

78% $1,877 $9,233 $11,111

80% $1,885 $9,052 $10,937 $2 0% 98% 2% 1.4 2.4

80%Modulation $2,156 $9,146 $11,302 -$260 69% 28% 3% 36 70

(Two-Stage)

81% $1,955 $8,965 $10,920 $11 35% 28% 37% 12 31

81%Modulation $2,226 $9,058 $11,285 -$252 67% 27% 5% 34 71

(Two-Stage)

90% $2,519 $8,328 $10,847 $39 46% 27% 26% 17 29

92% $2,675 $8,190 $10,865 $20 52% 20% 29% 17 32

92% Modulation $2,906 $8,308 $11,214 -$324 80% 1.3% 18% 26 70

(Two-Stage)

92% Modulation $2,944 $8,426 $11,370 -$477 84% 1.3% 15% 29 92

(Continuous)

96%Modulation $3,536 $8,180 $11,716 -$821 86% 1.3% 12% 38 111

(Continuous)

"No impact" means that the base case forecast furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the

level indicated, so the household is not affected.

Based on the payback calculation, a very small change in operating cost can result in a few extremely large

paybacks, which will skew the average payback. In these cases, median is probably a better indicator.

11.3 NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HOUSEHOLDS

11.3.1 Subgroups Definition

DOE analyzed the impact of standards for non-weatherized gas furnaces on households

located in northern (cold-climate) and southern (warm-climate) regions. To conduct this

analysis, DOE divided the States into northern and southern regions. It defined the southern

region as comprising States with an average of fewer than 5,000 heating degree days (HDD), and

the northern region as comprising states with an average of more than 5,000 HDD (Table

11.3.1). DOE also performed an analysis using a definition of the southern region as comprising

States with an average of fewer than 6,000 HDD, and a definition of the northern region as

comprising states with an average of more than 6,000 HDD (Table 11.3.2.).

11-5

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 11.2.4 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Low-Income 

Households 

Life-Cycle Cost Life-Cycle Cost Savings Payback Period 

(Years)** 

Design Option Average Average Households with 

by AFUE Installed Operating Average Average 

LCC Savings Net No Net Median Average Price Cost Cost Impact* Benefit 

78% $1,877 $9,233 $11,111 

80% $1,885 $9,052 $10,937 $2 0% 98% 2% 1.4 2.4 

80% Modulation $2,156 $9,146 $11,302 -$260 69% 28% 3% 36 70 

(Two-Stage) 

81% $1,955 $8,965 $10,920 $11 35% 28% 37% 12 31 

81 % Modulation $2,226 $9,058 $11,285 -$252 67% 27% 5% 34 71 

(Two-Stage) 

90% $2,519 $8,328 $10,847 $39 46% 27% 26% 17 29 

92% $2,675 $8,190 $10,865 $20 52% 20% 29% 17 32 

92% Modulation $2,906 $8,308 $11,214 -$324 80% 1.3% 18% 26 70 

(Two-Stage) 

92% Modulation $2,944 $8,426 $11,370 -$477 84% 1.3% 15% 29 92 

(Continuous) 

96% Modulation $3,536 $8,180 $11,716 -$821 86% 1.3% 12% 38 III 

(Continuous) 

* "No Impact" means that the base case forecast furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the 

level indicated, so the household is not affected. 

* * Based on the payback calculation, a very small change in operating cost can result in a few extremely large 

paybacks, which will skew the average payback. In these cases, median is probably a better indicator. 

11.3 NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HOUSEHOLDS 

11.3.1 Subgroups Definition 

DOE analyzed the impact of standards for non-weatherized gas furnaces on households 

located in northern (cold-climate) and southern (warm-climate) regions. To conduct this 

analysis, DOE divided the States into northern and southern regions. It defined the southern 

region as comprising States with an average of fewer than 5,000 heating degree days (HDD), and 

the northern region as comprising states with an average of more than 5,000 HDD (Table 

11.3.1). DOE also performed an analysis using a definition of the southern region as comprising 

States with an average of fewer than 6,000 HDD, and a definition of the northern region as 

comprising states with an average of more than 6,000 HDD (Table 11.3.2.). 

11-5 
Table 11.3.1 Definition of Northern and Southern Regions using 5 ,000 TODD Criteria

Region Census Divisions and States Represented

Four Large States

New England Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and

Rhode Island

Middle Atlantic' New Jersey and Pennsylvania

Northern East North Central Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin

(cold-climate) West North Central Iowa Kansas Minnesota Missouri Nebraska North Dakota and States , , , , , ,

South Dakota

Mountain (HDD>5,000)b Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming

Pacific` Alaska, Oregon, and Washington

New York New York

South Atlantic' Delaware, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Maryland, North

Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia

East South Central Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee

Southern West South Central' Arkansas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma

(warm-climate) Mountain (HDD<5 000)b Arizona and New Mexico States ,

California California

Texas Texas

Florida Florida

(a) Not including New York, which is included separately as one of the four large States.

(b) DOE assumed that, using this criterion, most households in the northern region would come from Colorado,

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming, while most households in the southern region would come from

Arizona and New Mexico.

(c) Not including California, which is included separately as one of the four large States..

(d) Not including Texas, which is included separately as one of the four large States. West Virginia is included in

the southern region, even though it has an average of more than 5,000 HDDs.

(e) Not including Florida, which is included separately as one of the four large States.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 11.3.1 Definition of Northern and Southern Regions using 5,000 HDD Criteria 

Region 

Northern 

(cold-climate) 

States 

Census Divisions and 

Four Large States 

New England 

Middle Atlantica 

East North Central 

West North Central 

Mountain (HDD>5,000)b 

PacificC 

New York 

South Atlanticd 

East South Central 

Southern West South Centrale 

(warm-climate) Mountain (HDD<5,000)b 

States 

California 

Texas 

Florida 

States Represented 

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and 

Rhode Island 

New Jersey and Pennsylvania 

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin 

Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and 

South Dakota 

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming 

Alaska, Oregon, and Washington 

New York 

Delaware, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Maryland, North 

Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia 

Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee 

Arkansas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma 

Arizona and New Mexico 

California 

Texas 

Florida 

(a) Not including New York, which is included separately as one of the four large States. 

(b) DOE assumed that, using this criterion, most households in the northern region would come from Colorado, 

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming, while most households in the southern region would come from 

Arizona and New Mexico. 

(c) Not including California, which is included separately as one of the four large States .. 

(d) Not including Texas, which is included separately as one ofthe four large States. West Virginia is included in 

the southern region, even though it has an average of more than 5,000 HDDs. 

(e) Not including Florida, which is included separately as one of the four large States. 

11-6 
Table 11.3.2 Definition of Northern and Southern Regions using 6,000 HDD Criteria

Region Census Divisions

and Four Large

States

States Represented

northern

cold-climate)

States

southern

(warm-climate)

States

New England

(HDD>6,000)a

East North Central

West North Central

Mountain

Pacific'

New York

New England

(HDD>6,000)'

Middle Atlantic'

East North Central

West North Central

South Atlantic'

East South Central

West South Central'

Mountain(HDD<6, 000)b

Pacific'

California

Texas

Florida

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont

Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming

Alaska

New York

Rhode Island

New Jersey and Pennsylvania

Indiana and Ohio

Kansas and Missouri

Delaware, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Maryland, North

Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia

Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee

Arkansas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma

Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico

Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

California

Texas

Florida

(a) DOE assumed that, using this criterion, most households in the northern region would come from Connecticut,

Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont, while most households in the southern region would come

from Rhode Island. The same criterion applies to the other split divisions.

(b) Not including California, which is included separately as one of the four large States.

(c) Not including New York, which is included separately as one of the four large States.

(d) Not including Texas, which is included separately as one of the four large States.

(e) Not including Florida, which is included separately as one of the four large States.

11.3.2 Inputs to the Subgroup Analysis for Northern and Southern Households

DOE performed the consumer subgroup analysis by analyzing the LCC and PBP of

northern and southern households with the spreadsheet models used for the LCC analysis. DOE

used the same inputs in the subgroup analysis as it used in the LCC and PBP analysis (as

described in Chapter 8) for non-weatherized gas furnace households considered to be northern or

southern households.

11-7

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 11.3.2 Definition of Northern and Southern Regions using 6,000 HDD Criteria 

Region Census Divisions States Represented 

and Four Large 

northern 

(cold-climate) 

States 

southern 

(warm-climate) 

States 

States 

New England 

(HDD>6,OOO)" 

East North Central 

West North Central 

Mountain 

Pacificb 

New York 

New England 

(HDD>6,ooo)a 

Middle AtianticC 

East North Central 

West North Central 

South Atlanticd 

East South Central 

West South Centrale 

Mountain(HDD<6,OOO)b 

PacificC 

California 

Texas 

Florida 

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont 

Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin 

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota 

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming 

Alaska 

New York 

Rhode Island 

New Jersey and Pennsylvania 

Indiana and Ohio 

Kansas and Missouri 

Delaware, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Maryland, North 

Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia 

Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee 

Arkansas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma 

Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico 

Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington 

California 

Texas 

Florida 

(a) DOE assumed that, using this criterion, most households in the northern region would come from Connecticut, 

Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont, while most households in the southern region would come 

from Rhode Island. The same criterion applies to the other split divisions. 

(b) Not including California, which is included separately as one of the four large States. 

(c) Not including New York, which is included separately as one of the four large States. 

(d) Not including Texas, which is included separately as one of the four large States. 

(e) Not including Florida, which is included separately as one of the four large States. 

11.3.2 Inputs to the Subgroup Analysis for Northern and Southern Households 

DOE performed the consumer subgroup analysis by analyzing the LCC and PBP of 

northern and southern households with the spreadsheet models used for the LCC analysis. DOE 

used the same inputs in the subgroup analysis as it used in the LCC and PBP analysis (as 

described in Chapter 8) for non-weatherized gas furnace households considered to be northern or 

southern households. 

11-7 
Table 11.3.3 summarizes the weighted-average input values for the northern and southern

households analyzed in the consumer subgroup analysis and compares them to the weightedaverage input values for all households in RECS 2001 using non-weatherized gas furnaces. The

northern households have, on average, higher energy use and lower energy prices than the

southern households. Northern households have much greater average natural gas use than

southern households.

Table 11.3.3 Comparison of Input Values for All Households, Northern, and Southern

Households

Category All Households

Northern

Households

Southern

Households

>5000 >6000 <5000 <6000

Household Population Data

Number of Household Records 1880 1067 463 814 1417

Sum of Weights (million households) 43.5 24.1 9.6 19.4 33.9

Percent of NWGF Household Population 100% 55.4% 22.0% 44.6% 78.0%

Weighted-Average Annual Energy Use for Baseline Furnace

Space-Heating Natural Gas Use (MMBtu)

Space-Heating Electricity Use (kWh)

56.6 71.0 73.0 38.7

496 619 639 346

51.9

456

Weighted-Average Natural Gas Prices

Average Natural Gas Price ($/therm)

Marginal Natural Gas Price ($/therm)

1.14 1.06 1.04 1.24

1.01 0.92 0.92 1.08

1.16

1.05

Weighted-Average Electricity Prices

Average Electricity Price (0/kWh)

Marginal Electricity Price (0/kWh)

10.8 9.4 11.2 11.0

10.7 8.5 9.0 12.0

10.7

11.1

11.3.3 Results for Northern and Southern Households

Tables 11.3.4 through 11.3.7 summarize the LCC results for the northern and southern

households for non-weatherized gas furnaces, using the alternative definitions of northern and

southern regions. These results can be compared to the overall results in Table 8.4.1 in Chapter

8. The tables provide the average or mean LCC and PBP, the LCC savings relative to the base

case, and the percentage of consumers for whom the LCC will decrease compared to the base

case forecast (positive benefit), those for whom the LCC will increase compared to the base case

forecast (negative impact), and those for whom the LCC will not change because the specific

design option is less efficient or the same as the base case forecast for that house (and therefore

the standard has no impact).

The northern and southern consumer subgroups (using 5,000 HDD criteria) differ

significantly in terms of average LCC savings and consumer impacts (i.e., percentage of

11-8

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 11.3.3 summarizes the weighted-average input values for the northern and southern 

households analyzed in the consumer subgroup analysis and compares them to the weightedaverage input values for all households in RECS 2001 using non-weatherized gas furnaces. The 

northern households have, on average, higher energy use and lower energy prices than the 

southern households. Northern households have much greater average natural gas use than 

southern households. 

Table 11.3.3 Comparison of Input Values for All Households, Northern, and Southern 

Households 

Northern Southern 

Category All Households Households Households 

>5000 >6000 <5000 <6000 

Household Population Data 

Number of Household Records 1880 1067 463 814 1417 

Sum of Weights (million households) 43.5 24.1 9.6 19.4 33.9 

Percent ofNWGF Household Population 100% 55.4% 22.0% 44.6% 78.0% 

Weighted-Average Annual Energy Use for Baseline Furnace 

Space-Heating Natural Gas Use (MMBtu) 56.6 71.0 73.0 38.7 51.9 

Space-Heating Electricity Use (kWh) 496 619 639 346 456 

Weighted-Average Natural Gas Prices 

Average Natural Gas Price ($/thenn) 1.14 1.06 1.04 1.24 1.16 

Marginal Natural Gas Price ($/thenn) 1.01 0.92 0.92 1.08 1.05 

Weighted-Average Electricity Prices 

Average Electricity Price (¢/kWh) 10.8 9.4 11.2 11.0 10.7 

Marginal Electricity Price (¢/kWh) 10.7 8.5 9.0 12.0 11.1 

11.3.3 Results for Northern and Southern Households 

Tables 11.3.4 through 11.3.7 summarize the LCC results for the northern and southern 

households for non-weatherized gas furnaces, using the alternative definitions of northern and 

southern regions. These results can be compared to the overall results in Table 8.4.1 in Chapter 

8. The tables provide the average or mean LCC and PBP, the LCC savings relative to the base 

case, and the percentage of consumers for whom the LCC will decrease compared to the base 

case forecast (positive benefit), those for whom the LCC will increase compared to the base case 

forecast (negative impact), and those for whom the LCC will not change because the specific 

design option is less efficient or the same as the base case forecast for that house (and therefore 

the standard has no impact). 

The northern and southern consumer subgroups (using 5,000 HDD criteria) differ 

significantly in terms of average LCC savings and consumer impacts (i.e., percentage of 

11-8 
consumers with net cost or benefit). For the 90 percent AFUE level, in the northern households

the average LCC savings is $178 and the percent of households with net cost (negative impact) is

23 percent, while the southern households have an average LCC cost of $82 and the percent of

households with net cost is 55 percent. The higher LCC savings and lower economic impact in

the northern households as compared to southern households is due to the much greater energy

consumption in the north, which allows for more energy savings from higher furnace efficiency.

Table 11.3.4 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Northern

Life-Cycle Cost Life-Cycle Cost Savings Payback Period

(years)"

Design Option Average Average Households with

Avera e Avera e

by AFUE Installed Operating g

LCC

g

Savings Net No Net Median Average Price Cost Cost Impact* Benefit

78% $2,045 $13,098 $15,143

80% $2,054 $12,829 $14,883 $2 0% 99% 1% 0.6 0.7

80% Modulation $2,360 $12,890 $15,251 -$195 52% 47% 2% 40 73

(Two-Stage)

81% $2,128 $12,700 $14,828 $28 20% 47% 34% 9 14

8 1 % Modulation $2,434 $12,761 $15,195 -$169 49% 47% 4% 32 62

(Two-Stage)

90% $2,751 $11,740 $14,491 $178 23% 47% 31% 10 13

92% $2,930 $11,536 $14,466 $184 33% 34% 33% 12 15

92% Modulation $3,195 $11,634 $14,829 -$170 77% 2.6% 21% 18 35

(Two-Stage)

92%Modulation $3,239 $11,778 $15,016 -$353 83% 2.6% 14% 19 39

(Continuous)

96%Modulation $3,918 $11,404 $15,322 -$653 85% 2.6% 12% 30 60

(Continuous)

Households (greater than 5,000 HDD)

* "No impact" means that the base case forecast furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the

level indicated, so the household is not affected.

** Based on the payback calculation, a very small change in operating cost can result in a few extremely large

paybacks, which will skew the average payback. In these cases, median is probably a better indicator.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

consumers with net cost or benefit). For the 90 percent AFUE level, in the northern households 

the average Lee savings is $178 and the percent of households with net cost (negative impact) is 

23 percent, while the southern households have an average Lee cost of $82 and the percent of 

households with net cost is 55 percent. The higher Lee savings and lower economic impact in 

the northern households as compared to southern households is due to the much greater energy 

consumption in the north, which allows for more energy savings from higher furnace efficiency. 

Table 11.3.4 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Lee and PBP Results for Northern 

Households (greater than 5,000 HDD) 

Life-Cycle Cost Life-Cycle Cost Savings Payback Period 

(Years)** 

Design Option Average Average Households with 

Average Average by AFUE Installed Operating LCC Savings Net No Net Median Average Price Cost Cost Impact* Benefit 

78% $2,045 $13,098 $15,143 

80% $2,054 $12,829 $14,883 $2 0% 99% 1% 0.6 0.7 

80% Modulation $2,360 $12,890 $15,251 -$195 52% 47% 2% 40 73 

(Two-Stage) 

81% $2,128 $12,700 $14,828 $28 20% 47% 34% 9 14 

81 % Modulation $2,434 $12,761 $15,195 -$169 49% 47% 4% 32 62 

(Two-Stage) 

90% $2,751 $11,740 $14,491 $178 23% 47% 31% 10 13 

92% $2,930 $11,536 $14,466 $184 33% 34% 33% 12 15 

92% Modulation $3,195 $11,634 $14,829 -$170 77% 2.6% 21% 18 35 

(Two-Stage) 

92% Modulation $3,239 $11,778 $15,016 -$353 83% 2.6% 14% 19 39 

(Continuous) 

96% Modulation $3,918 $11,404 $15,322 -$653 85% 2.6% 12% 30 60 

(Continuous) 

* "No Impact" means that the base case forecast furnace assigned to the household has greater effiCIency than the 

level indicated, so the household is not affected. 

** Based on the payback calculation, a very small change in operating cost can result in a few extremely large 

paybacks, which will skew the average payback. In these cases, median is probably a better indicator. 

11-9 
Table 11.3.5 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Southern

Life-Cycle Cost Life-Cycle Cost Savings Payback Period

(Years)**

Design Option Average Average Households with

Avera e Avera e

by AFUE Installed Operating g

LCC

g

Savings Net No Net Median Average Price Cost Cost Impact* Benefit

78% $2,021 $8,418 $10,439

80% $2,030 $8,255 $10,285 $2 0% 98% 2% 1.7 2.2

80% Modulation $2,331 $8,374 $10,706 -$322 76% 23% 1% 62 102

(Two-Stage)

81% $2,103 $8,176 $10,280 $1 40% 23% 37% 15 29

81% Modulation $2,405 $8,296 $10,701 -$330 77% .21% 2% 59 98

(Two-Stage)

90% $2,715 $7,629 $10,345 -$82 55% 21% 23% 18 26

92% $2,892 $7,505 $10,397 -$130 60% 17% 23% 20 28

92%Modulation $3,151 $7,657 $10,808 -$536 87% 1.4% 11% 30 61

(Two-Stage)

92% Modulation $3,194 $7,759 $10,953 -$679 90% 1.4% 9% 34 84

(Continuous)

96%Modulation $3,860 $7,529 $11,389 -$1,108 92% 1.4% 7% 44 101

(Continuous)

Households (less than 5,000 HDD

"No impact" means that the base case forecast furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than

the level indicated, so the household is not affected.

Based on the payback calculation, a very small change in operating cost can result in a few extremely large

paybacks, which will skew the average payback. In these cases, median is probably a better indicator.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 11.3.5 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Southern 

Households (less than 5,000 HDD) 

Life-Cycle Cost Life-Cycle Cost Savings Payback Period 

(Years)** 

Design Option Average Average Households with 

Average Average by AFUE Installed Operating LCC Savings Net No Net Median Average Price Cost Cost Impact* Benefit 

78% $2,021 $8,418 $10,439 

80% $2,030 $8,255 $10,285 $2 0% 98% 2% l.7 2.2 

80% Modulation $2,331 $8,374 $lO,706 -$322 76% 23% 1% 62 102 

(Two-Stage) 

81% $2,103 $8,176 $10,280 $1 40% 23% 37% 15 29 

81 % Modulation $2,405 $8,296 $10,701 -$330 77% 21% 2% 59 98 

(Two-Stage) 

90% $2,715 $7,629 $10,345 -$82 55% 21% 23% 18 26 

92% $2,892 $7,505 $10,397 -$l30 60% 17% 23% 20 28 

92% Modulation $3,151 $7,657 $10,808 -$536 87% 1.4% 11% 30 61 

(Two-Stage) 

92% Modulation $3,194 $7,759 $lO,953 -$679 90% 1.4% 9% 34 84 

(Continuous) 

96% Modulation $3,860 $7,529 $11,389 -$1,108 92% 1.4% 7% 44 101 

(Continuous) 

* "No impact" means that the base case forecast furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than 

the level indicated, so the household is not affected. 

** Based on the payback calculation, a very small change in operating cost can result in a few extremely large 

paybacks, which will skew the average payback. In these cases, median is probably a better indicator. 

11-lO 
Using a 6,000 HDD criteria yields somewhat different results. For the 90 percent AFUE

level, in the northern households the average LCC savings is $212 and the percent of households

with net cost is 22 percent, while in the southern households the average LCC savings is $5 and

the percent of households with net cost is 42 percent.

Table 11.3.6 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Northern

Life-Cycle Cost Life-Cycle Cost Savings Payback Period

(Years)**

Design Option Average Average Households with

Avera e Avera e by AFUE Installed Operating g

LCC

g

Savings Net No Net Median Average Price Cost Cost Impact* Benefit

78% $2,041 $13,451 $15,492

80% $2,050 $13,172 $15,222 $3 0% 98% 2% 0.7 0.7

80% Modulation $2,355 $13,231 $15,586 -$188 51% 47% 3% 36 68

(Two-Stage)

81% $2,124 $13,037 $15,161 $32 20% 47% 34% 9 14

8 1 % Modulation $2,429 $13,096 $15,525 -$160 48% 47% 5% 29 59

(Two-Stage)

90% $2,744 $12,035 $14,779 $212 22% 47% 31% 11 13

92% $2,923 $11,822 $14,745 $224 32% 35% 33% 12 15

92%Modulation $3,186 $11,917 $15,103 -$126 77% 2.4% 21% 19 35

(Two-Stage)

92% Modulation $3,230 $12,063 $15,293 -$311 82% 2.4% 16% 20 43

(Continuous)

96% Modulation $3,906 $11,676 $15,582 -$598 84% 2.4% 13% 32 61

(Continuous)

Households (greater than 6,000 HDD)

* "No impact" means that the base case forecast furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the

level indicated, so the household is not affected.

** Based on the payback calculation, a very small change in operating cost can result in a few extremely large

paybacks, which will skew the average payback. In these cases, median is probably a better indicator.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Using a 6,000 HDD criteria yields somewhat different results. For the 90 percent AFUE 

level, in the northern households the average Lee savings is $212 and the percent of households 

with net cost is 22 percent, while in the southern households the average Lee savings is $5 and 

the percent of households with net cost is 42 percent. 

Table 11.3.6 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Northern 

H h ouse 0 ld s ( t 19rea er th an 6 , 000 HDD) 

Life-Cycle Cost Life-Cycle Cost Savings Payback Period 

(Years)** 

Design Option Average Average Households with 

by AFUE Installed Operating Average Average 

LCC Savings Net No Net Median Average Price Cost Cost Impact* Benefit 

78% $2,041 $13,451 $15,492 

80% $2,050 $13,172 $15,222 $3 0% 98% 2% 0.7 0.7 

80% Modulation $2,355 $13,231 $15,586 -$188 51% 47% 3% 36 68 

(Two-Stage) 

81% $2,124 $13,037 $15,161 $32 20% 47% 34% 9 14 

81 % Modulation $2,429 $13,096 $15,525 -$160 48% 47% 5% 29 59 

(Two-Stage) 

90% $2,744 $12,035 $14,779 $212 22% 47% 31% 11 13 

92% $2,923 $11,822 $14,745 $224 32% 35% 33% 12 15 

92% Modulation $3,186 $11,917 $15,103 -$126 77% 2.4% 21% 19 35 

(Two-Stage) 

92% Modulation $3,230 $12,063 $15,293 -$311 82% 2.4% 16% 20 43 

(Continuous) 

96% Modulation $3,906 $11,676 $15,582 -$598 84% 2.4% 13% 32 61 

(Continuous) 

* "No impact" means that the base case forecast furnace assIgned to the household has greater efficIency than the 

level indicated, so the household is not affected. 

** Based on the payback calculation, a very small change in operating cost can result in a few extremely large 

paybacks, which will skew the average payback. In these cases, median is probably a better indicator. 

11-11 
Table 11.3.7 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces : LCC and PBP Results for Southern

Life-Cycle Cost Life-Cycle Cost Savings Payback Period

(Years)**

Design Option Average Average Households with

Avera e Avera e

by AFUE Installed Operating g

LCC

g

Savings Net No Net Median Average Price Cost Cost Impact* Benefit

78% $2,035 $10,223 $12,257

80% $2,044 $10,021 $12,065 $1 0% 99% 1% 1.6 2.0

80%Modulation $2,348 $10,115 $12,463 -$270 66% 33% 1% 53 87

(Two-Stage)

81% $2,117 $9,924 $12,041 $9 32% 33% 35% 13 24

81% Modulation $2,422 $10,019 $12,440 -$266 65% 32% 2% 46 84

(Two-Stage)

90% $2,735 $9,226 $11,962 $5 42% 32% 26% 15 21

92% $2,913 $9,073 $11,986 -$23 49% 24% 27% 16 23

92% Modulation $3,176 $9,203 $12,379 -$408 83% 2.1% 15% 24 49

(Two-Stage)

92% Modulation $3,219 $9,324 $12,543 -$568 87% 2.1% 10% 27 66

(Continuous)

96% Modulation $3,892 $9,041 $12,933 -$952 90% 2.1% 8% 37 84

(Continuous)

Households (less than 6,000 HOD

"No impact" means that the base case forecast furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than

the level indicated, so the household is not affected.

Based on the payback calculation, a very small change in operating cost can result in a few extremely large

paybacks, which will skew the average payback. In these cases, median is probably a better indicator.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 11.3.7 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: LCC and PBP Results for Southern 

Households (less than 6,000 HDD) 

Life-Cycle Cost Life-Cycle Cost Savings Payback Period 

(Years)** 

Design Option Average Average Households with 

by AFUE Installed Operating Average Average 

LCC Savings Net No Net Median Average Price Cost Cost Impact* Benefit 

78% $2,035 $10,223 $12,257 

80% $2,044 $10,021 $12,065 $1 0% 99% 1% 1.6 2.0 

80% Modulation $2,348 $10,115 $12,463 -$270 66% 33% 1% 53 87 

(Two-Stage) 

81% $2,117 $9,924 $12,041 $9 32% 33% 35% 13 24 

81 % Modulation $2,422 $10,019 $12,440 -$266 65% 32% 2% 46 84 

(Two-Stage) 

90% $2,735 $9,226 $11,962 $5 42% 32% 26% 15 21 

92% $2,913 $9,073 $11,986 -$23 49% 24% 27% 16 23 

92% Modulation $3,176 $9,203 $12,379 -$408 83% 2.1% 15% 24 49 

(Two-Stage) 

92% Modulation $3,219 $9,324 $12,543 -$568 87% 2.1% 10% 27 66 

(Continuous) 

96% Modulation $3,892 $9,041 $12,933 -$952 90% 2.1% 8% 37 84 

(Continuous) 

* "No Impact" means that the base case forecast furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than 

the level indicated, so the household is not affected. 

** Based on the payback calculation, a very small change in operating cost can result in a few extremely large 

paybacks, which will skew the average payback. In these cases, median is probably a better indicator. 

11-12 
REFERENCES

U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration. Residential Energy

Consumption Survey: Household Energy Consumption and Expenditures 2001. 2001.

(Last accessed May 18, 2005.)

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/recs2001/publicuse2OOI.html>

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

REFERENCES 

1. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration. Residential Energy 

Consumption Survey: Household Energy Consumption and Expenditures 2001.2001. 

(Last accessed May 18,2005.) 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/recs200 l/publicuse200 l.html> 

11-13