### File Name: Northeast Weighted Model Results and Implicit Prices.docx

Author: Robert Johnston, Clark University Created: February 8, 2012 Purpose: Presents results for the weighted Northeast Model and implicit prices.
Northeast Weighted Model

----------------------------------------------------------- Start values obtained using MNL model Dependent variable Choice Weighting variable W_VAR Log likelihood function -1031.26047 Estimation based on N = 1011, K = 6 Information Criteria: Normalization=1/N

Normalized Unnormalized AIC 2.05195 2074.52093 Fin.Smpl.AIC 2.05203 2074.60460 Bayes IC 2.08114 2104.03311 Hannan Quinn 2.06304 2085.73166 Model estimated: Feb 03, 2012, 09:27:41 R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd R2Adj Constants only must be computed directly

Use NLOGIT ;...; RHS=ONE$ Response data are given as ind. choices Number of obs.= 1011, skipped 0 obs

--------+-------------------------------------------------- Variable| Coefficient Standard Error b/St.Er. P[|Z|>z]

--------+-------------------------------------------------- NEITHER| -.15100 .18667 -.809 .4186 COM_FISH| .04413* .02375 1.858 .0632 FISH_POP| .00669 .03747 .179 .8582 FISH_SAV| .01054*** .00131 8.053 .0000 AQUATIC| .07674** .03781 2.030 .0424 COST| -.01276*** .00241 -5.288 .0000

--------+-------------------------------------------------- Note: ***, **, * = Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level.

----------------------------------------------------------- Line search does not improve fn. Exiting optimization.

----------------------------------------------------------- Random Parameters Logit Model Dependent variable CHOICE Weighting variable W_VAR Log likelihood function -858.87657 Restricted log likelihood -1098.20919 Chi squared [ 21 d.f.] 478.66523 Significance level .00000 McFadden Pseudo R-squared .2179299 Estimation based on N = 1011, K = 21 Information Criteria: Normalization=1/N

Normalized Unnormalized AIC 1.74061 1759.75314 Fin.Smpl.AIC 1.74153 1760.68742 Bayes IC 1.84278 1863.04574Hannan Quinn 1.77942 1798.99068

Model estimated: Feb 03, 2012, 09:51:53 Constants only must be computed directly

Use NLOGIT ;...;RHS=ONE$ At start values -1031.2605 .1672****** Response data are given as ind. choices Replications for simulated probs. = 300 Halton sequences used for simulations RPL model with panel has 348 groups Variable number of obs./group =NUM_R Hessian is not PD. Using BHHH estimator Number of obs.= 1011, skipped 0 obs

--------+-------------------------------------------------- Variable| Coefficient Standard Error b/St.Er. P[|Z|>z]

--------+--------------------------------------------------

|Random parameters in utility functions NEITHER| -.19167 .34295 -.559 .5762 COM_FISH| .14850*** .04921 3.018 .0025 FISH_POP| .09356 .07931 1.180 .2381 FISH_SAV| .02712*** .00548 4.947 .0000 AQUATIC| .18299* .09398 1.947 .0515

|Nonrandom parameters in utility functions COST| -.02017*** .00393 -5.137 .0000 |Diagonal values in Cholesky matrix, L. NsNEITHE| .03763 .93582 .040 .9679 NsCOM_FI| .13113 .19938 .658 .5107 NsFISH_P| .10232 .48295 .212 .8322 NsFISH_S| .00745 .04004 .186 .8525 NsAQUATI| .00419 .89083 .005 .9962

|Below diagonal values in L matrix. V = L*Lt COM_:NEI| .11719 .17071 .686 .4924 FISH:NEI| .09682 .29348 .330 .7415 FISH:COM| .11361 .23329 .487 .6263 FIS0:NEI| .04639** .02348 1.976 .0482 FIS0:COM| .01359 .03095 .439 .6606 FISH:FIS| .01921 .05553 .346 .7294 AQUA:NEI| .08853 .30670 .289 .7728 AQUA:COM| .10012 .39231 .255 .7986 AQUA:FIS| .08560 .59709 .143 .8860 AQU0:FIS| -.18543 .34632 -.535 .5924

|Standard deviations of parameter distributions sdNEITHE| .03763 .93582 .040 .9679 sdCOM_FI| .17587 .14002 1.256 .2091 sdFISH_P| .18098 .21738 .833 .4051 sdFISH_S| .05255*** .01532 3.430 .0006 sdAQUATI| .24411 .43106 .566 .5712

--------+-------------------------------------------------- Note: ***, **, * = Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Correlation Matrix for Random Parameters

NEITHER COM_FISH FISH_POP FISH_SAV AQUATIC
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------
-+ NEITHER | 1.00000 .66636 .53500 .88280 .36267 COM_FISH| .66636 1.00000 .82460 .78112 .54748FISH_POP| .53500 .82460 1.00000 .84140 .64976

FISH_SAV| .88280 .78112 .84140 1.00000 .44682 AQUATIC | .36267 .54748 .64976 .44682 1.00000

+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------
-+



### Northeast Implicit Prices: Weighted Model
The following tables summarize the distribution of each implicit price. The statistical significance of each implicit price can be determined by looking at the percentiles on the empirical distribution. For example, all percentiles for commercial fish ( wtp_com_mean ) are in the positive domain, so that this implicit price is statistically significant at the 1% level.

Estimated Implicit Prices

(mean) wtp_com_mean (commercial fish populations)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% 1.281273 -1.596552 5% 3.369536 .0006117 10% 4.059304 .081922 Obs 1000 25% 5.572303 .4958421 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 7.239184 Mean 7.547309 Largest Std. Dev. 3.012806 75% 9.277072 18.84307 90% 11.07869 23.02804 Variance 9.076997 95% 12.76337 23.70783 Skewness .8984211 99% 16.01752 25.8624 Kurtosis 5.894783

(mean) wtp_pop_mean (all fish populations)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% -4.607937 -8.841649 5% -1.841006 -6.793045 10% -.4060666 -6.690606 Obs 1000 25% 1.727979 -6.688567 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 4.552494 Mean 4.746262 Largest Std. Dev. 4.318085 75% 7.413868 20.01002 90% 10.02739 22.50277 Variance 18.64586 95% 11.62003 23.16116 Skewness .4483823 99% 16.04164 25.79933 Kurtosis 4.115611(mean) wtp_sav_mean (fish saved)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% .6451215 .2027048 5% .8465244 .4709032 10% .9505142 .5096945 Obs 1000 25% 1.153097 .5561329 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 1.366598 Mean 1.399283 Largest Std. Dev. .3839941 75% 1.607942 2.888671 90% 1.839017 3.105261 Variance .1474514 95% 2.076759 3.194698 Skewness 1.127701 99% 2.547523 4.562718 Kurtosis 8.463369

(mean) wtp_aquat_mean(aquatic ecological condition)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% -1.437585 -3.613533 5% 1.353207 -3.474618 10% 3.09235 -3.194159 Obs 1000 25% 5.686873 -3.146312 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 9.199791 Mean 9.344217 Largest Std. Dev. 5.03011 75% 12.77587 22.68429 90% 15.95918 22.93465 Variance 25.30201 95% 18.13723 23.71299 Skewness .2390789 99% 21.4787 31.3448 Kurtosis 3.022245

(mean) wtp_ne_mean (ASC for status quo - no policy)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% -47.00893 -69.01016 5% -34.52572 -60.62623 10% -29.94979 -59.34459 Obs 1000 25% -20.58036 -51.55547 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% -9.438338 Mean -8.610077 Largest Std. Dev. 17.69803 75% 2.799084 49.61007 90% 13.76251 49.83404 Variance 313.2203 95% 20.23096 68.5407 Skewness .3818289 99% 38.6841 78.97453 Kurtosis 3.920392