5C-i APPENDIX 5C. 2008 MATERIAL PRICING ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

5C.1 INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................1

5C.2 MATERIAL PRICING TAB LES .......................................................................1

5C.3 2008 MATERIAL PRICE ENGINEERING ANALYSIS RESULTS ................3

5C.2.1 Design Line 1 Engineering Analysis Results ......................................................3

5C.2.2 Design Line 2 Engineering Analysis Results ......................................................5

5C.2.3 Design Line 3 Engineering Analysis Results ......................................................7

5C.2.4 Design Line 4 Engineering Analysis Results ......................................................9

5C.2.5 Design Line 5 Engineering Analysis Results ....................................................11

5C.2.6 Design Line 6 Engineering Analysis Results ....................................................13

5C.2.7 Design Line 7 Engineering Analysis Results ....................................................15

5C.2.8 Design Line 8 Engineering Analysis Results ....................................................17

5C.2.9 Design Line 9 Engineering Analysis Results ....................................................19

5C.2.10 Design Line 10 Engineering Analysis Results ..................................................21

5C.2.11 Design Line 11 Engineering Analysis Results ..................................................23

5C.2.12 Design Line 12 Engineering Analysis Results ..................................................25

5C.2.13 Design Line 13A Engineering Analysis Results ...............................................27

5C.2.14 Design Line 13B Engineering Analysis Results ...............................................29

LIST OF TABLES

Table 5C.1 Liquid- Immersed Material Prices Used in the Engineering Analyses ............ 2 Table 5C.2 Dry- Type Material Prices Used in the Engineering Analyses ........................ 2

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 5C.1 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 1 ............... 4 Figure 5C.2 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 1 ............................. 5 Figure 5C.3 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 2 ............... 6 Figure 5C.4 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 2 ............................. 7 Figure 5C.5 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Li ne 3 ............... 8 Figure 5C.6 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 3 ............................. 9 Figure 5C.7 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 4 ............. 10 Figure 5C.8 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 4 ........................... 11 Figure 5C.9 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 5 ............. 12 Figure 5C.10 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 5 ......................... 13 Figure 5C.11 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 6 ........... 14 Figure 5C.12 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 6 ......................... 15 Figure 5C.13 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 7 ........... 165C- ii Figure 5C.14 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 7 ......................... 17 Figure 5C.15 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 8 ........... 18 Figure 5C.16 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 8 ......................... 19 Figure 5C.17 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 9 ........... 20 Figure 5 C.18 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 9 ......................... 21 Figure 5C.19 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 10 ......... 22 Figure 5C.20 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 10 ....................... 23 Figure 5C.21 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 11 ......... 24 Figure 5C.22 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 11 ....................... 25 Figure 5C.23 Price an d Efficiency for 2008 Material Price Sensitivity, Design Line 12 26 Figure 5C.24 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 12 ....................... 27 Figure 5C.25 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 13A ...... 28 Figure 5C.26 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 13A .................... 29 Figure 5C.27 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 13B ...... 30 Figure 5 C.28 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 13B .................... 315C-1 APPENDIX 5C. 2008 MATERIAL PRICING ANALYSIS

5C.1 INTRODUCTION

Core steel is one of the major cost drivers of a distribution transformer and is fundamentally linked to the efficiency of the finished transformer. When looking at energy conservation standards for distribution transformers, it is important to understand core steel pricing and influences on that pricing. Therefore, in addition to its analysis using the current 2011 material price and 2010 material price scenarios

, the Department of Energy (DOE) conducted a “high” price sensitivity analysis using the material prices from 2008, which represent a high price point over the 2006-2011 timeframe. The results of the 2011 and 2010 material price reference case s are presente d in Chapter 5 of the technical support document (TSD) . The results of the 2008 (high) material price sensitivity analysis are presented in this appendix for the reference case engineering analysis designs. All material prices are expressed in terms of 2010$.

The life -cycle cost (LCC) results for the 2008 material price scenario can be found in TSD Appendix 8E, which presents DOE ’s sensitivity analyses conducted on various LCC inputs, including material prices

. In Chapter 8, the 2008 material price is referred to as the “high” price

scenario and the 2011 and 2010 price scenario s are called the “medium” price scenario s . DOE also created a “low” price scenario to establish a lower bound for the LCC sensitivity analysis. It based the low price scenario on material prices in 2006 (the calendar year with the lowest $/pound for most core steel s). These material prices can be found in the material price tables in Chapter 5, and the low- price scenario manufacturer selling prices can be found in the LCC spreadsheets.

5C.2 MATERIAL PRICING TAB LES

DOE completed a supplementary engineering analysis using 2008 material prices

. The following table presents the 2011 reference case and the 2008 sensitivity of high material prices used for liquid- immersed units.5C-2 Table 5C.1 Liquid

- Immersed Material Prices Used in the Engineering Analyses

Material Units 2011 Price 2010$ 2008 Price (Max.) 2010$

M6 core steel $/lb 1.04 2.19

M5 core steel $/lb 1.10 2.24

M4 core steel $/lb 1.20 2.30

M3 core steel $/lb 1.30 2.60 M3 core steel (Lite Carlite) $/lb 1.95 2.44

M2 core steel $/lb 1.40 2.79 M2 core steel (Lite Carlite) $/lb 2.10 2.63 ZDMH (mechanically

- scribed core steel) $/lb 1.90 3.22 SA1 (amorphous) finished core, volume production $/lb 2.20 3.64 Copper wire, formvar, round #10

- 20 $/lb 4.87 5.97 Copper wire, enameled, round #7

- 10 $/lb 4.84 5.93 Copper wire, enameled, rectangular sizes $/lb 4.97 6.09
Aluminum wire, formvar, round #9

- 17 $/lb 3.07 3.91
Aluminum wire, formvar, round #7

- 10 $/lb 2.57 3.28 Copper strip, thickness range 0.02

- 0.045 $/lb 4.97 6.09 Copper strip, thickness range 0.030

- 0.060 $/lb 4.97 6.09 Aluminum strip, thickness range 0.02

- 0.045 $/lb 2.08 2.67 Aluminum strip, thickness range 0.045

- 0.080 $/lb 2.08 2.67 Kraft insulating paper with diamond adhesive $/lb 1.52 1.93

Mineral oil $/gal 3.35 3.84

Tank Steel $/lb 0.38 0.60

Likewise, DOE used material prices from the 2008 sensitivity price analysis to conduct an additional engineering analysis for dry-type units. The following table presents the 2011

reference case and 2008 sensitivity of high material prices used for dry -type units.

Table 5C.2 Dry

- Type Material Prices Used in the Engineering Analyses

Material Units 2011 Price 2010$ 2008 Price (Max.) 2010$

M12 core steel $/lb 0.84 0.66

M6 core steel $/lb 1.19 0.91

M5 core steel $/lb 1.60 0.78

M4 core steel $/lb 2.19 1.04

M3 core steel $/lb 2.24 1.10

M2 core steel $/lb 2.30 1.20

H

- 0 DR core steel (laser scribed) $/lb 2.60 1.30 SA1 (amorphous) finished core, volume production $/lb 2.79 1.40 Copper wire, rectangular 0.1 x 0.2, Nomex wrapped $/lb 3.23 1.70 Aluminum wire, rectangular 0.1 x 0.2, Nomex wrapped $/lb 3.64 2.20 Copper strip, thickness range 0.02

- 0.045 $/lb 5.53 4.52 Aluminum strip, thickness range 0.02

- 0.045 $/lb 3.78 2.97

Nomex insulation $/lb 6.09 4.97 Cequin insulation $/lb 2.67 2.08 Impregnation $/gal 29.03 24.50 Winding combs $/lb 6.09 5.53

Enclosure Steel $/lb 27.31 22.555C-3 DOE used the same markup percentages for both engineering analyses, including markups of 2.5 percent for the scrap factor, 4 percent for additional scrap due to the core steel mitering process, 12.5 percent for factory overhead, $0.22 per pound for shipping costs, and 25 percent for non-production costs.

5C.3 2008 MATERIAL PRICE ENGINEERING ANALYSIS RESULTS

This section provides a visual representation of the results of the 2008 material pricing analysis

. The scatter plots in this section show the relationship between the manufacturer's selling price and efficiency relationships for each of the 13 design lines. Each dot on the plots represents one unique design created by the software at a given manufacturer's selling price and efficiency level

. The placement of each dot (and the uniqueness of each design) is dictated by the design option combinations (core steel and windings), core shape, and combination of A and B factors (the capitalized cost per watt of no -load and load losses).

Additional scatter plots within each subsection illustrate the manufacturer selling price

delta be tween transformer designs using 2011 material prices and 200 8 material prices

. Each scatter plot also visually presents the candidate standard levels chosen for consideration by DOE for that particular design line.

5C.2.1 Design Line 1 Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 1 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 1. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C-4 Figure 5C.1 Price and Efficiency for 200 8 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 1

Figure 5 C. 2 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 1 using both 2011 material prices and 2008 material prices . The efficiency levels shown in this plot repr esent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C-5 Figure 5C.2 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 1

5C.2.2 Design Line 2 Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 3 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 2. T he efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C-6 Figure 5C.3 Price and Efficiency for 200 8 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 2

Figure 5 C. 4 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the rep resentative unit from design line 2 using both 2011 material prices and 2008 material prices. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C-7 Figure 5C.4 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 2

5C.2.3 Design Line 3 Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 5 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 3. The efficiency

levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C-8 Figure 5C.5 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 3

Fig ure 5 C. 6 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 3 using both 2011 material

p rices and 2008 material prices. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C-9 Figure 5C.6 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 3

5C.2.4 Design Line 4 Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 7 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 4. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 10 Figure 5C.7 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 4

Figure 5 C. 8 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 4 using both 2011 material prices and 2008 material prices. The efficiency levels shown in this plot rep resent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 11 Figure 5C.8 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 4

5C.2.5 Design Line 5 Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 9 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 5. T he efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 12 Figure 5C.9 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 5

Figure 5 C. 10 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 5 using both 2011 material prices and 2008 material prices. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 13 Figure 5C.10 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 5

5C.2.6 Design Line 6 Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 11 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 6 . The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 35 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 14 Figure 5C.11 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 6

Figure 5 C. 12 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 6 using both 2011 material prices and 2008 material prices. The efficiency levels shown i n this plot represent

transformers at 35 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 15 Figure 5C.12 Material Price Scenari o Comparison Plot, Design Line 6

5C.2.7 Design Line 7 Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 13 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the repr esentative unit from design line 7 . The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 35 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 16 Figure 5C.13 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 7

Figure 5 C. 14 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 7 using both 2011 material prices and 2008 material prices. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 35 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 17 Figure 5C.14 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 7

5C.2.8 Design Line 8 Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 15 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels

for the full da tabase of designs for the representative unit from design line 8 . The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 35 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 18 Figure 5C.15 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 8

Figure 5 C. 16 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for

th e full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 8 using both 2011 material prices and 2008 material prices. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 35 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 19 Figure 5C.16 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 8

5C.2.9 Design Line 9 Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 17 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 9. The efficiency

levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 20 Figure 5C.17 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 9

Fi gure 5 C. 18 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 9 using both 2011

material prices and 2008 material prices. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 21 Figure 5C.18 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 9

5C.2.10 Design Line 10 Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 19 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 10. The efficiency

levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 22 Figure 5C.19 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 10

Figure 5 C. 20 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 10 using both 2011 material prices and 2008 material prices. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 23 Figure 5C.20 Material Price S cenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 10

5C.2.11 Design Line 11 Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 21 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 11. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 24 Figure 5C.21 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 11

Figure 5 C. 22 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 11 using both 2011 material prices and 2008 material prices. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 25 Figure 5C.22 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plo t, Design Line 11

5C.2.12 Design Line 12 Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 23 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels

for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 12. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 26 Figure 5C.23 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Price Sensitivity, Design Line 12

Figure 5 C. 24 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 12 using both 2011 material prices and 2008 material prices. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 27 Figure 5C.24 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 12

5C.2.13 Design Line 13 A Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 25 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 13. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temp erature.5C- 28 Figure 5C.25 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity, Design Line 13A

Figure 5 C. 26 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 13A using both 2011 material prices and 2008 material prices. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent

tr ansformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 29 Figure 5C.26 Material Price Scenario Comparison Plot, Design Line 13 A

5C.2.14 Design Line 13B Engineering Analysis Results

Figure 5 C. 27 presents a plot of the 2008 manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design li ne 13 B . The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 30 Figure 5 C. 27 Price and Efficiency for 2008 Material Sensitivity , Design Line 13B

Figure 5 C. 26 presents a plot of the manufacturer selling prices and efficiency levels for the full database of designs for the representative unit from design line 13B using both 2011 material prices and 2008 material prices. The efficiency levels shown in this plot represent transformers at 50 percent of nameplate load and are corrected for temperature.5C- 31 Figure 5 C. 28 Material Price Scenario Comparison P lot, Design Line 13B