10 -i CHAPTER 10. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 10-1 10.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METH ODOLOGY ..................................................................... 10-1 10.2.1 Historical Shipments ............................................................................................. 10-1 10.3 BASE

- CASE INPUTS AND PROJECTIONS ................................................................. 10-2 10.3.1 Base

- Case Scenarios ............................................................................................. 10-2 10.3.1.1 High -Pressure Sodium Lamps ............................................................... 10-3 10.3.1.2 Mercury Vapor Lamps ........................................................................... 10-4 10.3.1.3 Metal Halide Lamps ............................................................................... 10-5 10.3.2 Representative Lamps ........................................................................................... 10-5 10.3.3 Base

- Case Projecti ons Results for > 1,900 K– ≤ 2,800 K and 50 W

– 1,000 W High

Intensity Discharge Lamps ................................................................................... 10- 8 10.3.4 Base

- Case Results for > 2,800 K

– ≤ 4,500 K and 50 W

– 400 W HID Lamps ..... 10-11 10.3.5 Base

- Case Projections Results for > 2,800 K

– ≤ 4,500 K and 401 W

– 1,000 W High

Intensity D ischarge Lamps ................................................................................. 10-14 10.3.6 Base

- Case Projections Results for > 2,800 K

– ≤ 4,500 K and 1,000+ W High

Intensity Discharge Lamps ................................................................................. 10-15 10.4 STANDARDS

- CASE INPUTS ...................................................................................... 10-16 10.4.1 Shipments Scenario ............................................................................................. 10-16 10.5 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................... 10-16 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................ 10- 18

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.3.1 Portion Rated Life of Mercury Vapor Ballasts as of Effective Date .................... 10-4 Table 10.3.2 Representative and Typical High-Pressure Sodium Lamp Mixture ..................... 10-6 Table 10.3.3 Representative and Typical Mercury Vapor Lamp Mixture ................................. 10-6 Table 10.3.4 Representative and Typical Probe- Start Metal Halide Lamp Mixture ................. 10-7 Table 10.3.5 Representative and Typical Pulse- Start Metal Halide Lamp Mixture .................. 10-7 Table 10.3.6 Representa tive and Typical Ceramic Metal Halide Lamp Mixture ...................... 10- 8 Table 10.5.1 Cumulative Lamp Shipments by Candidate Standard Level, Lamps Shipped in 2017–2046 ................................................................................................... 10-17

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.2.1 Historical HID Lamp Shipments ......................................................................... 10-2 Figure 10 .3.1 70 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments .................................................... 10- 8 Figure 10.3.2 100 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments .................................................. 10-9 Figure 10.3.3 250 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments .................................................. 10-9 Figure 10.3.4 400 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ................................................ 10-10 Figure 10.3.5 1,000 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ............................................. 10-10 Figure 10.3.6 100 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ................................................ 10-11 Figure 10.3.7 175 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ................................................ 10-1210

- ii Figure 10.3.8 250 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ................................................ 10-12 Figure 10.3.9 400 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ................................................ 10-13 Figure 10.3.10 400 W Probe

- Start MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ........................... 10-13 Figure 10.3.11 1,000 W MV MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments .................................... 10-14 Figure 10.3.12 1,000 W Probe

- Start MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ........................ 10-15 Figure 10.3.13 2,000 W Probe

- Start MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ........................ 10-1610 -1 CHAPTER 10. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

Shipments of high

- intensity discharge (HID) lamps are key inputs to the national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) calculations. Shipments are also a necessary input to the manufacturer impact analysis, which the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducts for its

n otices of proposed r ulemakin g. This chapter describes DOE’s methodology for projecting annual shipments and presents initial inputs and results for HID lamps

. In the shipments analysis, DOE develops a base

- case shipment projection for each HID lamp type to depict what would happen to energy use and customer costs for the purchase and operation of HID lamp

- ballast

- fixture systems (herein “HID lamp systems”) in the absence of potential Federal energy conservation standards. In determining the base case, DOE considers historical shipmen ts, emerging technologies, the mix of efficiencies sold in the absence of potential standards, and how that mix might change over time. To evaluate the effects of standards on HID lamps

, DOE then compares the base

- case projection with projections of what could happen if DOE promulgates new standards (the standards case ). To determine the cumulative NES and NPV of standards , DOE compares projected shipments of a base case to a standards case over the national impact analysis period, 2017–2046.

The shipments model and the n ational i mpacts m odel are Microsoft Excel spreadsheet s accessible at www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/product.aspx/productid/60

. Th is interim technical support document chapter explains the shipments model. Section 10.2 presents the shipments model methodology for HID lamps; s ection 10.3 describes the data inputs, historical shipments, base

- case scenarios , and shipments projection s; section 10.4 discusses the effects of proposed new standards on the mix of HID lamp designs; and section 10.5 presents the shipments results for the different candidate standard levels (C SLs ).

10.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METH ODOLOGY

In general, DOE follow ed a three -step process to project lamp shipments . First, DOE used historical lamp shipment data from the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) and data from DOE sources to estimate the total historical shipments of each HID lamp type analyzed. Second, DOE calculate d an installed stock for each lamp from 201 7 (effective date of the standard) forward based on the average service lifetime of each lamp type . Third, by modeling events that trigger lamp purchases, such as replacement and new construction, and applying growth rate, replacement rate, and emerging technologies penetration rate assumptions, DOE developed annual shipment projections for 20 17–2046.

10.2.1 Historic al Shipments

DOE has HID lamp shipments data from NEMA for 1990–2010. The resolution differs across the time period, but DOE does have total shipments for each lamp type during these years. NEMA has also published periodic reports of HID lamp shipments since 2010. The values in these reports were factored into the shipments model as they became available, and DOE will10 -2 reference the most current available NEMA reports in its notice of proposed rulemaking analyses

. With these high level values of total shipments per lamp type, DOE mak es additional estimates on the proportion of shipments for each of the sub- types of each of the HID lamps.

Figure 10.2.1 shows the historical shipments for all HID lamps as well as each of the three major types of HID lamps

— high -pressure sodium (HPS), mercury vapor (MV), and metal halide (MH)

— over the last two decades. Since 1990 , HID lamps have increased in volume of shipments. It appears circa 2005 that HID lamps reached a peak in total shipment volume. The

ec onomic recession circa 2008 –2009 probably accounts more for some reduction in HID lamps (and most spending). M ore time is needed to determine if 2005 represents the zenith in total HID lamp shipments ; current data supports the case.

Since 1990, MV lamps have been on a slow, gradual decline. Between 1990 and 2010, HPS lamps constitute d roughly the same amount of shipments each year. The only HID lamp type to increase significantly since 1990 are MH lamps.

Figure 10.2.1 Historical HID Lamp Shipments

10.3 BASE

- CASE INPUTS AND PROJECTION S

This section describes the base

- case scenario DOE employs in its analysis and the base

case input market

- share apportioning for HID lamps and presents the base

- case projection for each lamp type along with historical lamp shipments data.

10.3.1 Base- Case Scenarios

In general, DOE believes that the overall HID lamp market is on a decline. During the HID l amps Framework p ublic meeting, General Electric (GE) discussed its concern about the 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Total Amount of Shipments

Year 

## Historical Shipments

All HID Lamp Shipments
HPS Lamps
MV Lamps
MH Lamps10 -3 fate of the technology in relation to a 30-year projection of shipments. GE stated that there is significant flux in the lighting marketplace, specifically with HID lighting. GE elaborated that the near term (less than 20 years) is very uncertain and that some HID lamps may not even exist in the marketplace 10 years from the start of the effective date of a potential rule. (Docket No. EERE -2010- BT

- STD -0043, GE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 12 at p. 127 a ) During the metal halid e lamp fixt ure energy conservation standard Framework public meeting, manufacturers stated that many metal halide high bay fixtures had been replace d with fluorescent high bay fixtures between 2000 and 2010. (Docket No. EERE-2009- BT

- STD

- 0018, Philips, No. 8 at p. 101) During the metal halide lamp fixture preliminary analysis public meeting, manufacturers expressed their belief that metal halide lamp fixture shipments had plateaued or were declining. (Docket No . EERE -2009- BT

- STD

- 0018, Phili ps, No. 33 at pp. 113 – 122)

A January 2012 DOE report on energy savings potential of solid- state lighting projects significant penetration of light- emitting diode (LED) light sources in the commercial , industrial, and outdoor stationary lighting markets, significantly reducing the number of HID lighting installations

. 1 Total HID lighting in these three markets ( as a percentage of lighting service in
tera lumen -hours [Tlm -hr]) is projected to decrease from approximately 8 ,900 Tlm-hr in 2010 to 4,170 Tlm-hr in 2030, a decrease of approximately 50 percent

. Within each of the sectors, HID lighting in the commercial sector is expected to remain largely unchanged until 2020, then decrease 20 percent by 2025 and 40 percent by 2030 ; i n the industrial sector, HID lighting is projected to decrease 25 percent by 2020, 45 percent by 2025, and 55 percent by 2030; and outdoor stationary lighting is projected to decrease 20 percent by 2020, 40 percent by 2025, and 60 percent by 2030.

10.3.1.1 High

- Pressure Sodium Lamps

Currently HPS lamps, ballasts, or fixtures are not covered by existing Federal regulations. HPS lamps are predominantly used in exterior applications and comprise the majority (over 80 percent ) of the 52 million (as of 2010) street and highway lighting fixtures in the U.S. 2 This represents a significant installed base of HPS ballasts and fixtures needing to be serviced by replacement lamps. Since 2010, roughly 100 different requests for proposals (RFPs) have been issued for LED fi xtures to replace the existing street lighting in the U.S. 3 These 100 RFPs represent a cumulative $ 29 million in available funding to replace roughly 54,000 existing street lights. These RFPs often represent only a smaller portion of the total amount of in stalled street lights for the respective agency issuing the RFP. In addition to these RFPs, the City of Los Angeles has already replaced 107,000 street lights, with near

- term plans to replace an additional 50,000 street lights. 4 Although these examples foc us on street lighting, DOE also believes that other exterior light fixtures using HPS lamps are also being replaced by LED and other non- HID

sources.
Traditional HPS streetlights are not only being replaced by LED fixtures, but other light sources as well. In January 2012, the City of Kennewick, Washington, announced plans to

a A notation in this form provides a reference for information that is in the docket of DOE’s “ Energy Conservation Program for Certain Commer cial and Industrial Equipment: Energy Conservation Program: High

- Intensity Discharge Lamps” (Docket No. EERE

- 2010

- BT

- STD

- 0043) , which is maintained at.www.regulations.gov. This notation indicates that the statement preceding the reference is document numbe r 00013 in the docket for the metal halide lamp ballasts test procedure rulemaking , and appears at page 8 of that document.10 -4 replace their 5,000 streetlights (mostly using HPS lamps) with fixtures utilizing induction light

sources. 5

As of the effective date of a potential HID lamps standard, HPS lighting tec hnology will be over 50 years old. As demonstrated by the examples of the RFPs and other municipalities quickly replacing HPS installations , it is expected that future shipments of HPS lamps will decline through the shipments analysis period.

10.3.1.2 Mercury Vapor Lamps
The Energy Policy Act of 2005 banned the sale or importation of MV ballasts after January 1, 2008

. 10 CFR 431.286 The effective date of the potential HID lamps standards would be January 1, 2017. This would be 9 years after the last MV ballast was allowed to be sold or imported into the U.S. Table 10.3.1 shows the percent of rated life of MV ballasts from the time the last ballast could be sold (Jan. 1, 2008 ) to the start of the analysis period (Jan. 1, 2017) based on the operating hours of the different sectors and a ballast life of 50,000 hours. b

Table 10.3.1 Portion Rated Life of Mercury Vapor Ballasts as of Effective D ate

Sector Annual Operating Hours Years Between Last Sale and Start of Analysis P eriod Total Estimated Number of Hours of O peration Percent of Rated L ife

Commercial 3,961 9 35,649 71

Industrial 6,113 9 55,017 110 Outdoor 4,493 9 40,437 81
Based on the percent of rated life of the ballast per Table 10.3.1 , DOE expects many of the ballasts to start failing soon after the start of the analysis period. Once the ballast fails,
customer s will have to consider a different lighting source. Ballasts will start failing in greater quantities in the earliest years of the proposed rule.

Periodically, NEMA releases data related to shipments of different light sources . For the final quarter of 2011, NEMA stated that MV posted a decline of 19.4 percent on a year -over- year basis. MV lamps represent 4.7 percent of HID lamp shipments in general. 6 During the first quarter of 2012, MV shipments increased 5 percent

. 7

At the end of 2012, the City of Boston had replaced over 40 percent of their 64,000 streetlights (primarily mercury vapor) with LED street light fixtures

. 8

In April 2009, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities approved a Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (PSE&G) plan to replace 96,400 MV municipal street lights in 220 towns in PSE&G ’s service territory with induction fixtures. 9

Because of the anticipated failure of sales

- restricted MV ballasts, the existing decline of shipments reported by NEMA, and the plans of cities and municipalities (as demonstrated by

b DOE researched the life of HID ballasts for the metal halide lamp fixture rule. DOE’s research indicated the magnetic HID ballasts typically have a life of 50,000 hours and electronic ballasts have a life of 40,000 hours. DOE is not aware of any electronic MV ballasts prior to January 1, 2008.10 -5 Boston and Detroit), DOE expects MV lamps to represent 1 percent of HID lamp shipments in 2017 and for shipments to decline over the shipment analysis period.

10.3.1.3 Metal Halide Lamps

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set minimum ballast efficiencies for metal halide lamp fixtures with a rated lamp wattage of 150 W to 500 W . (42 U.S.C. 6292 (hh)(1)(A) ) The minimum efficiency of 94 percent for probe- start MHLFs curtailed the specific ation and installation of probe- start metal halide lamp fixtures . Shipment data supports this assessment in that probe- start metal halide represented 64 percent of all MH lamp shipments in 2008, and declined to 47 percent in 2010. DOE believes that this reduction in probe- start MH lamp shipments correlates to a reduction in probe- start lamp fixtures and that the remaining lamps being shipped serve existing fixtures.

During the January 2010 metal halide lamp fixture Framework document public meeting, Philips commented that it expected to see a significant change between the 2002 and 2010 versions of the Lighting Market Characterization reports , illustrating a significant reduction of MH system usage due to market penetration by fluorescent lighting systems. (Docket No. EERE2009- BT

- STD

- 0018, Philips, No. 8 at p . 101)

Historic al data of HID lamp shipments has shown HPS to be roughly one- third of all HID shipments regardless of year. Since 1990, MV market share has declined as it was replaced with MH lamp systems, with HPS market share staying relatively constant. As stated earlier, MV lamp shipments are expected to continue to decline. It is expected that as MV lamps disappear from the marketplace, those lamps (and ultimately fixtures) will be replaced by either MH lamp systems or other lighting technologies. Therefore, DOE expects the proportion of MH lamp shipments to increase in the near term.

10.3.2 Representative Lamps

Table 10.3.2 through Table 10.3.6 show how the commercially available (typical) rated lamp wattages are apportioned to the representative lamp wattage. Typically

, the conventional lamps are equal to or lower than the representative wattage. Usually , a typical lamp is 100 percent apportioned to the representative wattage, but some lamps are apportioned to two different representative lamps (see Table 10.3.5 ). The lamps are split because the typical lamp falls squarely between the two representative lamp wattages and should be apportioned equally.10 -6 Table 10.3.2 Representative and Typical High

- Pressure Sodium Lamp Mixture Representative Lamp Wattage Typical Lamp Wattages Typical Lamp Wat tage Assigned to Representative Lamp Wattage

70 50 100% 70 100%

100 100 100% 150 100%

250 200 100% 215 100% 225 100% 250 100%

400 310 100% 360 100% 400 100% 430 100%

1,000 600 100% 700 100% 750 100% 880 100% 940 100% 1,000 100%

Table 10.3.3 Representative and Typical Mercury Vapor Lamp Mixture Representative Lamp Wattage Typical Lamp Wattages Typical Lamp Wattage Assigned to Representative Lamp Wattage

100 50 100% 75 100% 80 100% 100 100% 125 100%

175 160 100% 175 100%

250 250 100% 300 100%

400 400 100% 450 100%

1,000 700 100% 750 100% 1,000 100%10 -7 Table 10.3.4 Representative and Typical Probe

- Start Metal Halide Lamp Mixture Representative Lamp Wattage Typical Lamp Wattages Typical Lamp Wattage Assigned to Representative Lamp Wattage

175 150 100% 175 100%

250 250 100% 320 100%

400 360 100% 400 100%

1,000 750 100% 950 100% 1,000 100%
1,500 1,500 100% 1,650 100%
2,000 1,800 100% 2,000 100%

Table 10.3.5 Representative and Typical Pulse -Start Metal Halide Lamp Mixture Representative Lamp Wattage Typical Lamp Wattages Typical Lamp Wattage Assigned to Representative Lamp Wattage

70 50 100% 70 100%

100 100 100% 125 50% to 100 / 50% to 150 150 150 100%

200 175 100% 200 100%

320 250 50% to 200 / 50% to 320 320 100% 360 100% 400 100% 450 100%

750 750 100% 775 100%

875 875 100% 1,000 100% 1,500 100% 2,000 100%10

- 8 Table 10.3.6 Representative and Typical Ceramic Metal Halide Lamp Mixture Representative Lamp Wattage Typical Lamp Wattages Typical Lamp Wattage Assigned to Representative Lamp Wattage 50 50 100% 70 70 100% 100 100 100% 150 150 100%

250 210 100% 250 100% 320 100% 315 100% 350 100% 360 100% 400 100%

10.3.3 Base- Case Projections Results for > 1,900 K– ≤ 2 ,800 K and 50 W–1,000 W High

Intensity Discharge Lamps

Figure 10.3.1 through Figure 10.3.5 present the base

- case lamp shipments projections for 2017–2046, based on 1990–2010 historical shipments and potential market effects on growth rates as described in section 10.3.1.1 . Shipments at CSL 1 level are shown as null in Figure 10.3.1 through Figure 10.3.5 because these lamps are still at the prototype development stage and are not currently on the market

.

Figure 10.3.1 70 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Total Amount of Shipments

Year 

## 70 W HPS Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

Effective Date10 -9 Figure 10.3.2 100 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

Figure 10.3.3 250 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year 

## 100 W HPS Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

Effective Date

- 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year 

## 250 W HPS Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

Effective Date10

- 10 Figure 10.3.4 400 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

Figure 10.3.5 1,000 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year 

## 400 W HPS Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

Effective Date

- 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year 

## 1,000 W HPS Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

Effective Date10

- 11 10.3.4 Base- Case Results for > 2 ,800 K– ≤ 4 , 500 K and 50 W–400 W HID Lamps

Figure 10.3.6 th rough Figure 10.3.9 present the base

- case lamp shipments projections from 2017–2046, modeled from historical data (1990–2010) and other factors as explained in section 10.3.1

. Shipments at CSL 1 level are shown as null in Figure 10.3.6 and Figure 10.3.7 because no low wattage (under 150 W) probe

- start metal halide lamps exist. Baseline shipments are shown at null in Figure 10.3.10 because there is not MV option for this equipment class.

Figure 10.3.6 100 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year 

## 100 W MV Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

Effective Date10

- 12 Figure 10.3.7 175 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

Figure 10.3.8 250 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year 

## 175 W MV Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

Effective Date

- 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year 

## 250 W MV Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

Effective Date10

- 13 Figure 10.3.9 400 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

Figure 10.3.10 400 W Probe- Start MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year 

## 400 W MV Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

Effective Date

- 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year 

## 400 W Probe

- Start MH Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

Effective Date10

- 14 10.3.5 Base- Case Projections Results for > 2,800 K– ≤ 4,500 K and 401 W–1,000 W High

Intensity Discharge Lamps

Figure 10.3.11 through Figure 10.3.12 present the base

- case lamp shipments projections from 2017–2046, modeled from historical data (1990–2010) and other factors as explained in section 10.3.1 . Shipments at CSL 1 level are shown as null in Figure 10.3.11 because there is no probe- start option for this equipment class. Baseline shipments are shown at null in Figure 10.3.12 because there is no MV option for this equipment class.

Figure 10.3.11 1,000 W MV MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipment s
Between 2006 and 2010, high wattage (greater than 500 W) probe

- start MH lamps reduced in volume of shipments by 30 percent. During that same period, high wattage pulse- start MH lamps increased twofold. DOE assumes that high wattage probe- start MH lamps w ill continue to decline and in the near term high- wattage pulse

- start MH lamps will increase , then peak

, and then decrease. - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year 

## 1,000 W MV Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

Effective Date10

- 15 Figure 10.3.12 1,000 W Probe- Start MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

10.3.6 Base- Case Projections Results for > 2,800 K– ≤ 4 ,500 K and 1,000+ W High

Intensity Discharge Lamps

Figure 10.3.13 present the base

- case lamp shipments projections from 2017–2046, modeled from historical data (1990–2010) and other factors as explained in section 10.3.1

. It is assumed that the baseline and CSL 1 lamps shipments are the same for this equipment class and therefore the lines are on top of each other in Figu re 10.3.13

. - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year 

## 1,000 W Probe

- Start MH Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

Effective Date10

- 16 Figure 10.3.13 2,000 W Probe

- Start MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

10.4 S TANDARDS

- CASE INPUTS

10.4.1 Shipments Scenario

To characterize customer behavior in the standards case, DOE considered many characteristics that customers take into account when purchasing fixtures. Specifically, DOE regarded fixture price and system energy use as two key drivers of customer purchases.

The standards-c ase scenario for HID lamps includes a roll-up scenario. The roll-up scenario represents a standards case in which all equipment efficiencies in the base

- case that do not meet the standard would roll up to meet the new standard level. Customers in the base case who purchase HID lamp systems above the standard level are not affected as they are assumed to continue to purchase the same base- case equipment in the roll-up scenario. The roll- up scenario characterizes customers primarily driven by the first cost o f the analyzed equipment. In a roll -up scenario, DOE assumes customers will buy the first standard

- compliant system available and will attempt to buy a fixture from the same equipment class as their previously demanded system. The total volume of shipments is assumed to be the same in base case and standards

case.

10.5 RESULTS

Table 10.5.1 gives cumulative shipments by equipment class, by CSL, for lamps shipped in 2017–2046. - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year 

## 2,000W Probe

- Start MH Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

Effective Date10

- 17 Table 10.5.1 Cumulative Lamp Shipments by Candidate Standard Level, Lamps Shipped in 2017–2046 Representative Equipment Class CSL Representative Lamp Type Total Shipments By CSL

≥1

, 900 K and ≤2

, 800 K;

≥50 W to ≤1

, 000 W; clear; enclosed Baseline HPS 70 W 39,776,690 1 HPS 67 W

- Baseline HPS 100 W 32,544,565 1 HPS 96 W

- Baseline HPS 250 W 39,902,466 1 HPS 240 W

- Baseline HPS 400 W 33,990,990 1 HPS 383 W

- Baseline HPS 1

, 000 W 11,005,408 1 HPS 958 W

-

>2

, 800 K and ≤4

, 500 K;

≥50 W and ≤400 W; clear; enclosed Baseline MV MV 100 W 121,127 1 N/A

- Baseline MH / 2 pulse MH 70 W 35,578,125 3 CMH 50 W 22,428,773 Baseline MV MV 175 W 146,726 1 N/A

- Baseline MH / 2 pulse MH 100 W 17,789,062 3 CMH 70 W 11,214,387 Baseline MV MV 250 W 146,726 Baseline MH / 1 probe MH 175 W 6,635,507 2 pulse MH 150 W 17,789,062 3 CMH 100 W 11,214,387 Baseline MV MV 400 W 195,634 Baseline MH / 1 probe MH 250 W 9,289,710 2 pulse MH 200 W 48,627,584 3 CMH 150 W 11,214,387 Baseline MV N/A

- Baseline MH / 1 probe MH 400 W 10,616,811 2 pulse MH 320 W 60,647,886 3 CMH 250 W 14,017,983

>2

, 800 K and ≤4

, 500 K >400 W and ≤1

, 000 W; clear; enclosed Baseline MV MV 1

, 000 W 3,746 1 N/A

- 2 pulse MH 750 W 2,426,967 Baseline MV N/A

- Baseline MH / 1 probe MH 1

, 000 W 9,387,139 2 pulse MH 875 W 27,910,116 >2

, 800 K and ≤4

, 500 K; >1

, 000 W and ≤2

, 000 W; clear; enclosed Baseline MH 2

, 000 W 580,104

1 MH 1

, 500 W 580,10410

- 18 REFERENCES

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- savings -report_10-30.pdf >

2. U.S. Department of Energy– Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

. Energy Savings Estimates of Light Emitting Diodes in Niche Lighting Applications . 2011. Washington, D.C. < http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/ nichefinalreport_january2011.pdf >

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< www.newstreetlights.com >

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