"IO'ARO LE..Wm

li<>'>'<",..

Ol.E~1i S. WALKl'Jl

~(;o•.""".

Slate of Ulah

Depanlllem of

Natural Resources

Soplembcr 25, 2003

WBU''f L "'Ol<GAl<

"""....Dim""

Jan Miller

Utah Di~i,ion of Alf Quality

150 Nonh 1950 Wesl

Salt LakeCity,UT 84114·4820

t:stlmalion A''1lmntinn' and Mcthndnlo~l'

Renewable [I""tncill' Generalion (Table 15) and Capacity rfable IJ) in Utah

The Utah Encrgy Offioe (UEO) developed and ;.onl two \u .....ey in<truments to

wholo,"lers. Tel.ilers, an<l installe'" ofrenewJble energy (RE) ~Iuipmenl in the SMe. lIS well "S

governmenl ageno;«, sllch as the Bme," of L,nd Management, and Uli lities who J"!rticip,lC in

",",c"..able energy proje<:1i. n", lim survey".., for sm.II-scale syslem, less lban 25kW;n size,

1l1e s..:<md s~l....ey oovered mcdi~m...scale renewable energy projects belween HkW and IO",IW

in size. No large-scale survey ,ru;trutr<:nl wa, dcvclopcd because it was as'jUmc'd generation .nd

capacity d1ta from la'l,~scale RE proje<;lS were a, ailal:>Ic from lhc Depanmenl of Energy (DOE)

En~rgy I"formation Adminisualion (EIA).

The SI,n'cys we"'" .>enl and follow-uj> cail' were place'd 10 incrcaso the 'e<['''''''' rale No

formal enon "as unden"h~, ", 'In.mify response rdlCs. Also, lhe suniey effort likely {ni5s<:d

se"eral RE projects for which equt['mem was purchase<! oul ofSlate an,Vor ,nstalk'd by nonpror""ional,. For these rca'lOO'. il i' possible that lhe approach taken may serve to underestimate

the amo~nt ofsmall· to me<lium'sc~leRE gcneration .nd copac;ly in Ul.h,

Upoo receipt ()f c()mj>lettd 'n\.1l1- ~nd medium-,cale su,veys, UEO compiled the ""uh,

.l()ng wilb relevant EIA data in 'rreadsheels. Because ()fd.ta and survey inslrument design

limilatiol\s. il was difficult if not in"""sible lo c""~'" lhot no double-countIng oceurrtd when

ooml'~ring wholesale.,., fI.'!ailer, and imlaller RE re'llO""'" f()t ,olar pholovollaic (PV) projeclS.

As a resuh, a de<:islOn "o'a, m>de to ""Iy include wlar rv gen""l;on "nd c'l'0eily from

go~emmenl projecl' .od wn()lesaler<. Thi' may ha"c resulted in undcr...n~unting for sm.lIse.le sol"r PV RE, bul safe.guarded against double-countmj;. The rcsuhing ,mall.scale rolar PV

gene.,-,.,ion "nd capacity eSlimates may therefore he ~Qnsid<:red con\e,,·"t,~e.

".. "....' ...'T....... S..,11lo.ro lim "W" ,.. ,..,..,.U.... ,,·"',u _ ••,,,II'Pbll' 'o«,,,jk ".LI",.,'"•TTY '''0 '.'8.1<," • "on "'......,,'"

UJah!

,,_..... .--.-.
Because some medium-scale RE proj<'Cts werc als<> iodcntifiC<.! in lOlA's gcneration and

cap""ity data tables. medium-scale smwy fesults wen: screened against ElA's utility and non·

mility power plant im'entorieo; to ",'Old double·counting. In the caSe of me<Jium_scale

hydroelectric powcr plants, a decision waS made to usc ErA utility and non_mility d.I., which

we", more completc, Also, the Utah ,\1unicipal PowC!" Agcocy (lIMPA) O;,.,e-Fon power stlllion

~nemion and capleity data were obtained d,rectly from tile plant r",nager, since the UMPA

me<Jiulll·scalc survey informatiOll fOf the plant was Incomplete and ErA gen"'ation data for the

plant "we non_c,i'tent. Annual genemtion and capacity values we", then lotaled by survey-scale

(i.e. small or medium) and by RE type (i,e, hydroelectric, wlar. geothem",t etc,). In some ca,.,s,

annual generation value< were estimated using reponed cap""ity and the obscn'oo capacity r"",or

ror similar RE projects. The results of this effon were summarized in two spreadsheels showing

e<lin\:lted RIO generation and capacity in Ulah (or 1999 through 2002.

KE ,". Toml ElcctrleUy Cenerarion (rable 16) and Capadly (Table 14) in U",h

RIO g<nerlllion and capacity eSlimJtes were lilen compared to EIA "'tinmte. ofMn·RE

generation and capacity, Generation ",Id capacily from all ,ource'S (i.c, fossil fuel and RIO) weI'(:

summed to show tOlal ele<:t,iClly gene,at,on Jnd capacity for the sMe and tbe percentages of RIO

and non-hydroelectric ",newable eleclricity (NHRE) were calculaled, It should be noled that no

effon ,,'as ~wlc to idenlify sm.lI. to medium·scale electric generotion from fossil fuel somces,

,uch >ti ponablc amI fi~ed location gasoline- and di<:sel-power«l ~et\erato",. Olher than lhose

mcluded in the lilA non·uhlity powcr plant inventory, A,. result. the e'timate oflotal electricity

generation and capacity i& likely to be skewed slightly lower, \\'hich- in rum -will skew Ihe rJtio

or NHR E ow,- total eleclrieity generalion ,lightly higbe,.

Con.uml,tion or Non_ll)'dro I{enewable Elcelrkil)' in Utah (Tabk 17)

Consumption o(NHIlli in Utab was as,u",«l to equal the Sum of Utah NHRE gene,ation

for Utahn, (i.e, distnbuted Utah NHRE gcnerut,on ."d Ut.h lTlull;"ip.1 utility N1IRE #"erotiol\)

plm lhe "pol1ion" of PocifiCofjl's sales to Utah from NHRE sourceS.

To escim"te UlIlh NHRE con,"mption, the RE genorat;on tot.~ls disClls<e<l e"lief were

scr~'Cned to remove ~ydrook'ctric genemtioll (nonc of whic~ is certified in Ut.h as "low-impJct'"

by lhe Low Imp;ICf liydro Inslltute and OOJIsidCfC<! eligible for ",elU';ion;n thc 309 SIP filrng) aoo

all PacifiCol']l g.....·nnion, some ofwhid coull1theorelically be sold oUlside o( Utah. Total "ale,

from P",,;f,corp's .y.lem wcre then cstimated from EIA and PJc,liCorp (from Barry Bell,

P.cifiCorp) d.la. The ratio of Pac;fiCorp's "IHRE electric generution (nol .nributabic to the

BI ue Sky prog:ram) to P3CifiCorp', total electric goneration was "pplic'd 10 PacifiCorp's 100al sale,

v.lues as. proxy to estimate PacifiCorp', Utah NliRE ,ales. P3CifiCorp's Utah NHRE sal.,

wcre then added to rhe cOmpany's Blue Sky progr~m sales, and the rcmaining NHRE generalion

in Utah to <\li,nate total ",HRE consumption for the Slate. This ,..lue was then romrarcd to toml

electricity sale, in Ulab to ostimate the perccntage of Utah electricity consumplion from 1\'11 RE

,ource..
Utah NIIRE Potcntial- Generation and Capacity (I'arl I. 3. al

UEO relied upon esli""'tes of NHRE energy generation potential from lhe Rene"cable

En~rgy Arl<JS oj,he IJhl. II Guide /0 rile Regio" 's Reso",ce Po/emi"l. ""iUen l>y Ihe Land and

Wale, Fund ofthe Rockies. the North"'esl S",tainable Energy for Economic Developmenl, and

the Greenlnfo Network. These NH RE generation cslimalcs ",ere used along wilh indu,try-wide

capacity factOfS rep<>ned by Ihe Nalional Renew ahle Energy l.llOOmtory (NR EL) and Nhcrs to

del'elop e,lim.ates ofpotemiaJ Utah NUKE cap""ity. l1Je>e colilllates represent a theo"'tical

maximum for NHRE generation and capacity if all known relOuITeS w"'" exploited and should be

lI""d with caution. 1>lost of these reMurces could not t>c e~ploile<l economically gi"e" CUlTent

technology, inlTastrucw,e, regulatory CIlvironment, and - mOSI importantly - market condition•.

Growlh in Nllllt Capacily vs, Total Capacily for Ulall, 2004-2020 (ParI 1.4..1)

UEO relied upon integrated "'SOufce plannmg (orecasts from utlillies to help eSlimate Ihe

groWl]' ii' NHRE capacity betw"",n 20(04 and W20. IIltho~gh integ"'ted rCSO~rce pl.n (I Rp)

periods considered the mix of new resourccs as far out as 20 J8, howo''Cf, estim~tes of

inereme"I.I, annu.1 resource additions w~.,-c only anil.ble Ihrough 2013 for PacifIC,,'l' .nd

through 2011 fot Ut~h Associ.ted MunIcipal Power Systems (UAMPS). UMPII reported thal no

additiollul resources would be addw during the time horizon co"sid.",d, looremeotal addilions

to Utah's NI1 RE mid tOllll electricity capacity wcre then sullulled by y~",r and O"cr the pcriod

from 2004 Ihrough 2013. alld ratios ofNHRE to lotalnew capacit), wcre culculatw. Due to data

limitation<, no atlemiH waS made 10 fo",cast addlt\Ons of non_ut,l,ty and <lthe, distribute<:! or .mall

scale NHRE resources. A. a ,">oil, estimates of new NIIRE capacity over the pcrtod in question

are likely to be eon'C11:ative (i.e. to IInderstate likely new MiRE capacity),

C~lT.Jlt Utah Cap~cilY "". Weslern Elttlrkity Coordinating Council (W£cq Capaeil)'

(ParI IA..)

The mlio ofUtaIt NHRE ncw capacity (550 MW) to the desired WEee NHRE new

c.pacily (20,000 MW) for lhe fo",c"," period (2,g pe,ccnt) waS then comp~rcd with lhe current

ratio ofUtah to WECC capacity (3.5 percent). This was done to gou!,,,, Ulah 's antlcipatcd

progress towards meetillg the goal of h~"ing 20,000 ,\1W of new capacity in the West by 2020,

Bocause Utah CUITeml)' only "-l""""lIlS 3.5 ""ree"t of WECC capacity and because the estimate

of Ula!1 NH RE new caracity of 550 MIV is probably low (as it only accumulates frorn 2004

throllgh 2(13), il is likely that Utah i, ()f1tmck towalJ. contrihuting to the regional 2020go.1.

Sincerely.

Glade Soward~

Energy Analyst

Uta], Energy Oflice