I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99

Crystal Ball Report

Simulation started on 3/25/99 at 10:19:59

Simulation stopped on 3/25/99 at 10:24:23

Forecast.- LCC Savings 1r-40 (Commercial) - CC

Summary:

Certainty Level is 7.14%

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity

Display Range is from ($15) to $5

Entire Range is from ($15) to $15

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Forecast I L S'avirgs 1Fd0 (Cam'emd)-CC

10,000 1ids Freger COW

.010 -

36OAers

. 200

.015

.010 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -'

A05 ---------------

($'15) ($10) ($5)6

03taryis7.14%f $5b +Irfity

------------

! lliIcIh:IIii

150

100

c9

c

0

.01

0

Page 17

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 - -

Crystal Ball Report 

Simulation started on 3/25/99 at 10:19:59 

Simulation stopped on 3/25/99 at 10:24:23 

Forecast: LCC Savings 1 F40 {Commercial> - CC 

summary: 

Certainty Level is 7.14% 

certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from ($15) to $5 

Entire Range is from ($15) to $15 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 

f'orecasI:: UXSaviI1JS 1f;40(Ccnnwcial)·CC 

1O,ooo1iiais Fi'eqen:yOmt 35QJ1iers 

.020 -;--------------;;;0-----------,·200 

.015 

~ :E .010 0:1 

-= C 

.. 

C. 

.000 .L.,-_......a..I,IdlJW.lJWIII 

($15) 

;:r --------------- 100 i!!l 

MI 

::0 

~ 

Qrtaity is 7. 14%Iran $J 10 +Irfriy 

page 17 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cell: K13 
I:\ballast\ICC\ICC runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38

Summary:

Certainty Level is 67.29%

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infini

Display Range is from ($20) to $25

Entire Range is from ($16) to $53

After 10, 000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

86 Oufflers

0

.016

.008

- 240.7

0

$3 $14

Catktyis /ofrrm$0b-HrArety

4

fl

131) - Cell: K1

Summary:

Certainty Level is 98.37%

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity

Display Range is from ($10) to $50

Entire Range is from ($7) to $94

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Page 18

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

1 

Summary: 

certainty level is 67.29% 

certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from <$20> to $25 

Entire Range is from ($16) to $53 

After 10,000 TrialS, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 

Forecast LCC Savings 1F40 (Qnmercial) - ERS 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 

.032 

.024 

~ 

:2i .016 

Il;;I 

.Q 

Q 

l.. .008 Il. 

.000 

($al) ~) $14 

Cl:!tairtyis 67 29"lofromSl) 10 +lrlirily 

86 OuiIiers 

321 

240.7 

.." 

... 

C"i) 

100.5 .c 

c 

C"i) 

= 00.25 ~ 

0 

$25 

Forecast: Lce savings 1 F40 (Commercial) .. TS ERS 

Summary: 

certainty level is 98.37% 

certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from <$10> to $50 

Entire Range is from ($7) to $94 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 

FOlecast LCCSavings 1F40 (Conmercial) -18 ERS 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 

.030 

.023 

~ 

.c .015 

Il;;I 

.c 

Q d: .008 

($10) $5 

Cl:!tairtyis 98.37%fromSl) 10 +lrlirily 

page 18 

60 OuiIiers 

303 

2Zl2 

.." 

... 

C"i) 

151.5 .c 

c 

n 

= 

75.75 ~ 

0 

$50 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

Cell: 1<14 

Cell: 1(15 
I:\ballast\ICC\ICC runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Cell: 13

Summary:

Certainty Level is 98.12%

Certainty Range is from -75.0 to +Infinity

Display Range is from -75.0 to 200.0

Entire Range is from -808460.1 to 29909.0

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 81.0

Forecast Payback 1 ( 'al) -

10,000 Trials Frequency Mad

.082 a

Z'

as

pq

0..

382 Oudiers

- 815

.0611 + ---- ---------A -------------------

.041 ---- r ---------------------------------

.020 - - - - - - - - - - - -----------------------

A+^? -.:53.8

.000

75.0 &3 625 1312 200D

Catirtyis9 .12%fian 75.0to11rfirity

- 6112

203.7

0

Forecaste. `f-2-^ (commercial) - ERS Cell: 14

Summary:

Display Range is from 0.0 to 30.0

Entire Range is from 1.0 to 228.8

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1

10,000 Trials

.045 -i-

.034

Forecast Payback 1F40 ( al) - EIZ.S

Rw-wlcyChart 124 Outliers

- --------------------------------

1_.

L W.L------

-------------------

7.5

452

339

111ilillno^•^s.r^....•....._. 0

15.0 22.5 30.0

Page 19

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\icc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 - -

Forecast: payback 1 F40 {commercial> .. CC 

Summary: 

certainty Level is 98.12% 

certainty Range is from -75.0 to +Infinity 

Display Range is from -75.0 to 200.0 

Entire Range is from -808460.1 to 29909.0 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 81.0 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast Pa)back 1F40 (Camlercial) - CC 

Frequency Chart 382 Outliers 

.062 .,---.,------.--------------,. 815 

.061 ----+-------- -__________________________ ~12 

~ 

.Q .041 

(I;j 

.Q 

C d: .DAl 

I 

I 

I 

I ----T--------

I 

--- . .!.-------- I 

I 

.000 L.--I: ~ 

-6.3 62.5 131.3 

catlir1yis 9B.12'lofian-75.01D ilrtirity 

Forecast: payback 1F40 (Commercial) .. ERS 

Summary: 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 30.0 

Entire Range is from 1.0 to 228.8 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1 

forecast Pa)back 1F40 (Camlercial) -ERS 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 

.045 

-n 

.... 

C"I) 

407.5 .CI 

C 

C"I) 

:= 

2J3.7 ~ 

124 Outliers 

452 

.004 -~------------------------------- ~ 

~ .Q .0Z3 

(I;j 

.Q 

C 

L. .011 !l. 

.000 

7.5 15.0 

page 19 

-n 

... 

C"I) 

223 .CI 

C 

C"I) 

:= 

113 ~ 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

Cell: M13 

Cell: M14 
I:\ballast\lcc\icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38

Forecast LOC Savings 2F40 ( 'al) - CC

FremaencvChart

Summary:

Display Range is from 0.0 to 14.0

Entire Range is from 0.4 to 108.6

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0

LCC

Summary:

Certainty Level is 30.01 %

Certainty Range is from SO to +Infinity

Display Range is from ($18) to $13

Entire Range is from ($17) to $25

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

10,000 Trials

.aw

81 Oudiers

302

- 2X5

M8)

I

ells: an s

I

- CC Cell: K20

($10) ($3) $5 $13

P 14

ntyi3 30.01%fmm $O tD+Ufireely

_n

Page 20

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\ICc runs 3-99\3-25-99 

summary: 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 14.0 

Entire Range is from 0.4 to 108.6 

- -

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is 0.0 

Forecast Payback 1F4O (Comrnercial) -18 ERS 

ERS 

10,000 Trials frequency Chart 85 Outliers 

.~~----~~------------------------~-~ 

.034 

~ 

.CI .0Z3 

«I 

.CI 

e 

b. .011 C. 

.000 

0.0 3.5 7.0 10.5 14.0 

Forecast: LCC savings 2F40 (Commercial) .. CC 

summary: 

Certainty level is 30.01 % 

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from ($18) to $13 

Entire Range is from ($17) to $25 

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is SO 

Forecast lCC Savings 2F40 (Conmercial) - CC 

339.7 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 81 Outliers 

.~~--------------.-~--------------~. 302 

.0Z3 2'&5 

"'T1 ~ .... 

n .CI .015 151 .c 

«I c: .CI n 

= 

75.5 ~ e 

b. .008 C. 

.000 0 

($18) ($10) ($3) $5 $13 

Olrlairtyis 3O.01%1itmi!01D -I!riirity 

page 20 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cell: 5 

Cen: K20 
I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Cell: K21

Summary:

Certainty Level is 80.14%

Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity

Display Range is from ($15) to $30

Entire Range is from ($14) to $51

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

159

CD

C

C6

------ ----------------- 79.5

.. evil 1111111111111 ^^ n

4

($15) ($4) $8 $19 $30

031airtyis 80.14%fiun$0to-Hrtirity

Summary:

Certainty Level is 98.90%

Certainty Range is from $0 to + infinity

Display Range is from ($10) to $70

Entire Range is from ($10) to $119

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the mean is $0

Forecast LCC Savings 2F40 ( al) - ERS

10,000 Trials Requency Cliart

.032 H

75 Oulliers

- 318

-----------------------1- 238.5

-O .016 -------------

Forecast LCCSavings 2F40 (Canrner+cial)-18 EIZS

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart

MB ^

at>

104 Outliers

- 276

.021 ------------- ---------------------- -207

.014 ---------- --------------------- 138

.07

000 0

Affil=$^5

MO) $10 $30 $50 $70

CeiW rtyls 9&82%fiCm $Oto -Hrtiirlty

-,

Cc

C

CD

Cell: K22

Page 21

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-2S-99 - -

Forecast: LCC Savings 2F40 (Commercial> - ERS 

summary: 

certainty Level is 80.14% 

certainty Range is from SO to + Infinity 

Display Range is from ($1S) to $30 

Entire Range is from ($14) to $S1 

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is $0 

Forecast Lee Savings 2F40 (Comnercial) - ERS 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 75 OuiIiers 

.002 318 

.024 238.5 

~ .." ... 

C'1) 

.Cl .D16 159 .Q 

(tl c: 

.Cl C'1) 

C := ... 

a. .0l3 79.5 ~ 

.!XX) 0 

($15) 

O3r1airtyis OO.14"kfil:m$)1o -ilrlirity 

Forecast: Lec savings 2F40 (commercial> .. TS ERS 

Summary: 

Certainty Level is 98.90% 

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from ($10) to $70 

Entire Range is from ($10) to $119 

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is $0 

Forecast Lee Savings 2F40 (Comnercial) -18 ERS 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 104 OuiIiers 

.~~--------~--~-----------------,- 276 

.021 2fJl 

~ .." 

... 

C'1) 

.Cl .014 138 .Q 

(tl 

.Cl 

c: 

C'1) 

C 

... .w a. 

:= 

00 ~ 

.!XX) 0 

($10) $10 $30 $60 $70 

Page 21 

S/26/99 8:38 AM 

Cell: 1<21 

CeDI: 1<22 
I:\hallast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

10

Summary:

Certainty Level is 99.96%

Certainty Range is from 0.0 to +infinity

Display Range is from 0.0 to 70.0

Entire Range is from -572.5 to 637.0

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.2

D° ERS Cell: 21

Summary:

Display Range is from 0.0 to 25.0

Entire Range is from 0.6 to 109.1

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1

Forecast

10,000 Trtials

.043 -1

.000 LA

0.0

M

Chart 116 iers

63

Page 22

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\ICc runs 3-99\3-25-99 - -

summary: 

certainty Level is 99.96% 

certainty Range is from 0.0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 70.0 

Entire Range is from -572.5 to 637.0 

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is 0.2 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast Payback 2F40 (Co iIi erda!) - CC 

Frequency Chart 97 OuiIiers 

.1)51 -r--.-,---.--------------,. 511 

I 

.038 ~----______________________________ ~2 

~ , 

.s:::I .Q26 

«::i 

.s:::I 

Q 

... .013 c.. 

.000 

0.0 17S 35.0 52.5 

Olttairtyis 99.96"10 mO.O to -llrlirity 

Forecast: Payback 2F40 (Commercian .. ERS 

Summary: 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 25.0 

Entire Range is from 0.6 to 109.1 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1 

10,000 Trials 

70.0 

.,., 

... 

C'i) 

255.5 .s:::I 

c: 

C'i) 

::I 

127.7 ~ 

116 OuiIiers 

.OO-r---~--.-------------~·~ 

.002 

.000 

125 1&8 

page 22 

.,., 

.... 

C'i) 

2135 .s:::I 

c: 

1"1) 

::I 

106.7 ~ 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

Cell: 

Cell: M21 
Forecast: :®

10,000 Trials

.043 -rSummary:

Display Range is from 0.0 to 12.0

Entire Range is from 0.5 to 62.3

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0

Fawast

.011

428

321

214

L.

0

.000

I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

CoCuJ^1J_; )- TS ERS Cell:

2F40 ( 'aly18 ERS

106

- --------------------------------

II9

I1I11111i

Vam =3.1

9elee.oe.a..---° 0

3.0 6.0 9.0 120

Forecast-. Cell: K27

Summary:

Certainty Level is 39.79%

Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity

Display Range is from ($25) to $25

Entire Range is from ($21) to $40

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

iO,6ml;als

.0z3 ,-

Foracast tccSvirW.ao, i-cC

R"anWOut 35CWbm

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1. 1747

-T

---------------------. 'Ma5 .G

11,1

---------------

( ($,3) $0

(§taity is 33.79Yo fmm $D w +I rtnty

---------------- I- 5a25

4111hou.1111uh

4

$13 S25

Q

Page 23

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 - -

Forecast: Payback 2F40 (Commercian .. TS ERS 

Summary: 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 12.0 

Entire Range is from 0.5 to 62.3 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0 

Forecast: Pa)'back: 2F40 (Corrmercial)-18 ERS 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 106 Outliers 

.OO~----~--~----------------------'-Q 

.032 ------------------------------- ~ 

~ 

.c .021 ~ 

.c 

c 

... .011 c.. 

.00) 

0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 120 

('!) 

~ 

214 .c 

c: 

('!) 

= 

107 ~ 

Forecast: lce savings 3F40 Tandem-wired .. ec 

Summary: 

Certainty Level is 39.79% 

certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from <$25) to $25 

Entire Range is from <$21) to $40 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 

FOrecast: La: Savirgs 3I'IOlin:IemWred-CC 

10,000 "iiaIs ~Out 

.C113 

.017 

~ :E .012 10 

,Q 

c 

... 

Cl.. 

.ro> 

.OOJ 

($25) 

Qrtaity is 3l. 79Y.fran:lOlo +Irfriy 

page 23 

35OJ1iers 

233 

174.7 

~ ~ 

116.5 -g 

~ 

= 

~ 

58.25 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cell: M22 

cell: K2i' 
I:\hallast\Icc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38

Cell: ®®-

Summary:

Certainty Level is 57.67%

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity

Display Range is from ($25) to $30

Entire Range is from ($21) to $53

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the mean is $0

29

.017

.Ow

-----------------------

lllidg------------------

$9

OAttdty is 57.61%frvn $D to +I rfrIy

$16

171.7

114.5

57.25

Cell: K29

Summary:

Certainty Level is 99.05%

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity

Display Range is from ($25) to $125

Entire Range is from ($14) to $190

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Formmtsac&WrW 3RO md-7B M

1O,T; m3t

M

--------------

-------------- ji

-------------

(M

------------------

I L

--------------- -

a ----------------

rr4^v,= saa

QnftyisM0 fram$1to +irfety

2M

1747

165

5325

Page 24

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

savings .::lI!lII""lb!IblUl' 

summary: 

Certainty level is 57.67% 

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from ($25) to $30 

Entire Range is from <$21) to $53 

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is $0 

foolcast UlC Savirgs:fijl) 1lirdImWred· ERS 

10,000 "iiaIs ~CIut 

.(123 

.017 

~ :s .1)11 tJ:I 

.:l 

0 

.. 

CI. 

.006 

.000 

($15) 

Ortaity is 57.67%from $:lD +Infrdy 

81W1iers 

Z!9 

171.7 

~ n> 

114.5 "2l 

n> 

= 

~ 

57.'25 

Forecast: LCC Savings 3F40 Tandem-wired .. TS ERS 

summary: 

certainty level is 99.05% 

certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from <$25) to $125 

Entire Range is from ($14) to $190 

After 10,000 TrialS, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 

FbrecasI: UlCSavirgs:F40 1lIrdemWred· "B ERS 

10,000 "iials ~CIut 

.(123 

.017 

~ :s .012 tJ:I 

.:l 

0 

.. 

CI. 

.006 

.000 

($15) 

Ortlityis9l.CB'Iofn:m$:lD +Infrdy 

page 24 

52W1iers 

Zl3 

174.7 

"T1 

.. 

n> 

116.5 "2l 

n> 

= 

~ 

SB.'25 

0 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cell: K28 

cell: K29 
I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Forecast.* Payback -j® 1_ Cell: 27

Summary:

Certainty Level is 99.99%

Certainty Range is from 0.0 to +Infinity

Display Range is from -20.0 to 70.0

Entire Range is from -106.6 to 1154.0

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.2

10AW1i s

.

-ac

a>Nt 37CLdiam

560

r- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

F 260

F WO

-240 25 25.0

Qct*dy is qq.>^°/o from Q Oto +Ud r3y

1

= 11.4 Mr

47.5

0

® -^9r ^U ¶? T) ^1u® Cella M28

Summary:

Display Range is from 0.0 to 35.0

Entire Range is from 0.8 to 143.0

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1

ro^P*a*3M -ERS

10AMWS Freq rtya t

.032

94CLft- s

3M

------------------------------------1-241.5

------------------------------------I-161

II^

86

-------- -------------------- ^ M5

7

17.5 2&3

G

7

Page 25

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballas.t\ICC\ICC Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

Forecast: payback 3F40 Tandem-Wired .. CC 

Summary: 

certainty Level is 99.99% 

certainty Range is from 0.0 to +Infinity 

Display Range is from -20.0 to 70.0 

Entire Range is from -106.6 to 1154.0 

After 10,000 TrialS, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.2 

Rlrecast P¥ack3l'4)~.ex: 

lO.oooliials ~Ci1lI't 37OA1iers 

.()$ .,-------...---.--------------;- 500 

.~ ------------- ------------------------------- ~ 

~ ------------------------------- ~ ~ 

.014 - - - - - - - - - - - - ----------------------------- ~ 

·:n0 2.5 25.0 

Qrttityis9J.WMranQOto+lrmnly 

47.5 

Forecast: payback 3F40 Tandem-wired .. ERS 

Summary: 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 35.0 

Entire Range is from 0.8 to 143.0 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1 

M) 

= 

~ 

10.000 liiaIs MOAIiers 

.Cll2 

.024 

~ :ci .016 toO 

.CI 

Q 

.. 

c.. .<XlI 

.(XX) 

,---~-.------------------..~ 

QO 

I 

I _&_----------------------------------- I ~~ I 

------------------------------ m5 

8.8 17.5 26.3 

page 25 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cell: 11127 

cell: 11128 
l:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99

Summary:

Display Range is from 0.0 to 11.0

Entire Range is from 0.4 to 58.3

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0

3F40

10,000 Trials

.042 -r

.On

011

0

28 5.5 8.3 11.0

7 40

Summary.

Certainty Level is 26.34%

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity

Display Range is from ($25) to $20

Entire Range is from ($23) to $35

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

10, Trias

M4

115 i

5/26/99 8:38 AM

1

- --------------------------------

422

- 31x5

'11

- 211

C

C9

Saviqjs 3 Ta

Req"r-y Mart

- 36

0

- CC cell: K34

56 iees

Page 26

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

summary: 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 11.0 

Entire Range is from 0.4 to 58.3 

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is 0.0 

Forecast Payback 3RW TandemWl'ed -18 ERS 

10,000 Trials ~Chart 

ERS 

115 OuIiiers 

.oo~----.-~~---------------------,-~ 

.032 .. - - ____ - ___ - _____ - - - - - ___ - ____ - - 31a5 

~ 

:c; .021 

Q::I 

.c 

Q 

I.. .011 c.. 

.000 

28 5.5 8.3 11.0 

Forecast: LCC Savings 3F40 Non .. Tandem .. CC 

summary: 

Certainty Level is 26.34% 

certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from <$25) to $20 

Entire Range is from <$23} to $35 

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is $0 

Forecast lCC Savings 3F40 Non-Tandem - CC 

10,000 Trials ~Chart 

.Il34 

.025 

~ 

:c; .017 

Q::I 

.c 

Q 

I.. .008 c.. 

.000 

($25) 

O!r1airtyis2i.34%fian$llo-tlrnrity 

page 26 

""'1'1 

... 

fi) 

211 .C! 

C 

('1) 

::::I 

105.5 ~ 

56 OuIiiers 

336 

252 

""'1'1 

... 

('1) 

168 .C! 

C 

('1) 

:I 

84 ~ 

0 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cell: 11129 

cell: 1<34 
I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

LCC mJ _, ^d^ ^^u ^e^JY^®J7 ® Cell: K35

Summary:

Certainty Level is 97.74%

Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity

Display Range is from ($20) to $60

Entire Range is from ($11) to $95

lomTdds RSqBMCh3t 6BQjfi@e1s

.cm

.017 -----------------

----------------

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - J

F&____________________

1665

M

.011

w $40 $60

C13tdty is97. 74%fnxn $0 b +I rfrty

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

111

5i5

t9

C

® © TJ ( }l: Cell: K36

summary:

Display Range is from $0 to $150

Entire Range is from $5 to $242

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Page 27

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\ICC runs 3-99\3-25-99 - -

Forecast: Lee savings 3F40 Non .. Tandem .. ERS 

Summary: 

certainty Level is 97.74% 

certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from <$20> to $60 

Entire Range is from <$11) to $95 

10,000 ltials 6BWliers 

.022 ,---------------~~----------------~·m 

.017 1!li5 

~ :E .011 -------------------- m "" ..Cl 

Q 

"- Co 

.006 55.5 

.(XX) 

($<I)) 

Olrtlityls fff. 74%fran$J 10 +Irfrty 

Forecast: Lee savings 3F40 Non-Tandem .. TS ERS 

summary: 

Display Range is from $0 to $150 

Entire Range is from $5 to $242 

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is $0 

RlnlI:ast ux: Savirgs:f"40 Nn"ln:lrm-11 ERS 

lO,oooltials F'recp!n:?faat 112 Wliers 

.Il!) -r-------------.---.--------------------,- 195 

.015 

.006 48.75 

page 27 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

Cell: 1<35 

Cen: 1<36 
1:\bz!17ast\lcc\lcc ru. 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Summary:

Certainty Level is 99.98%

Certainty Range is from 0.0 to + Infinity

Display Range is from 0.0 to 70.0

Entire Range is from -27 44.5 to 317.3

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.3

uw0

Summary:

Display Range is from 0.0 to 15.0

Entire Range is from 0.5 to 69.6

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0

10,000 Trams

.046f3F40 Non-Tandem -ERB

Requency Mart 89 Oufliers

- 4W

.035 a--------------------------------- - 345

2.1

.023 230 .

CD

.012 CL

M

tvn=3 l

115

.000

.

i l'Ilhol®®.i1® ................ ... ® 0

0.0 38 7.5 11.3 15.0

Cell: 35

Page 28

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 - -

summary: 

certainty Level is 99.98% 

Certainty Range is from 0.0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 70.0 

Entire Range is from -2744.5 to 317.3 

.. CC 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.3 

10,000 Trials 65 OuiIiers 

.055 ~---.~~------------------------~.~ 

.042 

~ 

.CI .028 ~ 

.CI 

Q 

I!.. .014 c.. 

.000 

0.0 17.5 35.0 52.5 

Certairtyis 99.98"A>1iom0.0 10 +lriinity 

Forecast: payback 3F40 Non-Tandem .. ERS 

summary: 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 15.0 

Entire Range is from 0.5 to 69.6 

After 10,000 TrialS, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0 

10,000 Trials 

415.5 

70.0 

89 OuIfiers 

.046 ~-----=~------------------------~-~ 

.035 

~ 

.CI .em ~ 

.CI 

Q 

I!.. .012 c.. 

.000 

0.0 

I ~-------------------------------- ~ 

3.8 7.5 11.3 

page 28 

15.0 

." 

r; 

230 .CI 

c: 

f'I) 

:I 

115 ~ 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cell: 

Cell: M35 
I:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

4 C:

summary:

Certainty Level is 3.44%

Certainty Range is from 0.0 to + Infinity

Display Range is from -0.8 to 0.4

Entire Range is from -5.6 to 0.3

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0

Forecast Pawback 3F40 Nan-Tandem -18 ERS

10,000 Trials FreWenry Mart

.054 - e

.041

.000

----------------------

-0.8

Forecast: LCC

111 Oufliers

-543

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

-----------------

--------------

Pm =-02

-0.5 -0.2 0.1

l rtyisa44%fimm0.0to+Udicity

- 4072

- 271.5

- 135.7

- 0

0.4

C

CD

Cell: M36

L30-40 ) ® Cell: K41

Summary:

Certainty Level is 46.66%

Certainty Range is from So to + infinity

Display Range is from ($30) to $30

Entire Range is from ($25) to $57

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Forecast LCC Savings 4F40 (Corm udal) - CC

10,000 Trials Freq"Icy Chart 101 Tiers

-303

.023 - 2272

Ti

rD

- 151.5

(0)

------------- 75.75

tin =$1

® 0

($15) $0 $15 $30

Cafairtyis 46.66%fran$D to 4Hrtirity

C

C'D

Q

Page 29

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 - -

Forecast: payback 3F40 Non-Tandem .. TS ERS 

Summary: 

certainty level is 3.44% 

certainty Range is from 0.0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from -0.8 to 0.4 

Entire Range is from -5.6 to 0.3 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0 

Forecast Pa)iback: 3F40 Non-Tandem -18 ERS 

10,000 Trials FrequencyOlart 

.054 

111 Outliers 

543 

.~1 ----------------------~ ---------------- 4rr2 

.Q 

~ .w ~ 

.Q 

Q d: .014 

'()'8 -0.5 -02 0.1 0.4 

CB1airtyis 3.44%fttmo.O to ilnliri1y 

.." 

... 

("11 

271.5 .CI 

c: 

("11 

= 135.7 ~ 

Forecast: LCC savings 4F40 (Commercial) .. CC 

summary: 

certainty level is 46.66% . 

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from ($30> to $30 

Entire Range is from ($25) to $57 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 

Forecast lCC Savings 4F40 (Q:mnercial) - CC 

10,000 Trials FrequencyOlart 

.030 

.023 

~ 

.Q .015 ~ 

.Q 

Q 

.... .008 c.. 

.000 

~) ($15) $15 

page 29 

101 Outliers 

3J3 

7Zl2 

.." 

.... 

("11 

151.5 .CI 

c: 

("11 

75.75 = 

~ 

0 

$:?ll 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cell: M36 

cen: 1<41 
l:\ballast\lcc\lcc rr -ins 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Summary:

Certainty Level is 90.44%

Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity

Display Range is from ($20) to $60

Entire Range is from ($17) to $100

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Summary:

Display Range is from $0 to $200

Entire Range is from $3 to $290

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the mean is $0

Page 30

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

summary: 

certainty level is 90.44% 

certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from <$20> to $60 

Entire Range is from <$17) to $100 

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is $0 

fa'ecast I..CC Savings 4F4O (Commercial) - ERS 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 

.031 

.023 

.~ 

:E .015 ~ 

.CI 

.... = .008 fl. 

.000 

($20) 

Olrtairtyis 9O.44"lofromSD to ifnlirity 

59 Outiiers 

305 

Z2J3.7 

." 

.... 

C"D 

152.5 .c 

c 

C"D 

76.25 = 

~ 

0 

Forecast: LCC savings 4F40 (Commercial) eo T8 ERS 

Summary: 

Display Range is from $0 to $200 

Entire Range is from $3 to $290 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 

fa'ecast I..CC Savings 4F4O (O:lrmIerdal) -18 ERS 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 42 Outiiers 

.031 .;--------.------.---------------,. 306 

229.5 

~ ." 

.... 

C"D 

.CI .015 153 .c ~ c 

.CI C"D 

= .... .008 fl. 76.5 = 

~ 

.000 0 

Page 30 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cell: K42 

cell: K43 
I:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Forecast: '(Commercial) -CC Cell: M41

Summary:

Certainty Level is 99.99%

Certainty Range is from 0.0 to +infinity

Display Range is from -5.0 to 40.0

Entire Range is from -237.2 to 246.4

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1

Rrecast Payback 4F40 ial) -

10,000 Trials ReqjericyCliart

.048 B

B

CL

.000 1-

116 ouliiers

- 481

-----------------------------

11

63 17.5 28.8

CaMrtyis 99.99%from0.0to41rtirity

- 360.7

® -0

40.0

Forecast: Payback 4F40 (Commercial) Cell: M42

Summary:

Display Range is from 0.0 to 20.0

Entire Range is from 0.8 to 94.7

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0

10M lids

.cm -r-

.015}-'-"

Forecast: PaPark 4Fal (CamsrbO - 6iS

Req.ergrCFmt 115Q. iers

-----------------------------------I-221.2

1

-----------------------------------147.5

e o

NIW

5.0

- ff-----------------------------Ws

o

loo 15.0 200

Q

Page 31

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

Forecast: payback 4F40 (Commercial> .. CC 

Summary: 

Certainty Level is 99.99% 

certainty Range is from 0.0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from -5.0 to 40.0 

Entire Range is from -237.2 to 246.4 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1 

10,000 Trials 1160uUiers 

.048 ..,--------.----.-------------,. 481 

• .1)36 --------- -~----------------------------

~ I 

.c .024 -------- 0= 

.c 

e 

~ .012 c.. 

.(XX) 

-0.0 6.3 17.5 28.8 

O:Itairtyis OO.OO%fiano.Oto -Ilrnrity 

Forecast: payback 4F40 (Commercial) .. ERS 

Summary: 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 20.0 

Entire Range is from 0.8 to 94.7 

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is 0.0 

1O,oconas 

'$IJ.7 

." 

;:; 

240.5 .c 

c 

C"I) 

::I 

1202 ~ 

115ClJ11iers 

.CID ,----~~-------------~.~ 

.022 

~ ::E .()15 10 

.= 

C) 

... 

c- .rm 

.OCO 

0.0 5.0 

I 

&----------------------------------- I ~2 I 

~ ---------------------------------- _5 ~ 

10.0 15.0 

Page 31 

73.75 

C'1I 

:::I 

~ 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

Cen: M41 

cell: M42 
1:\ballast\lcc\lcc ruuL1s 3 -99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Cell:

Summary:

Display Range is from 0.0 to 1.2

Entire Range is from 0.0 to 5.7

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0

10,000 Trials

Page 32

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc JI.mS _3-99\3-25-99 

payback _..-... "lU/ {[:on'mler~:lan 

summary: 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 1.2 

Entire Range is from 0.0 to 5.7 

After 10,000 TrialS, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0 

Forecast Payback 4F4O (Cmmercial) -18 ERS 

10,000 Trials Frequencyawt 

.044 

, 

112 Outliers 

436 

.033 ~------------------------------- ~ 

.~ 

.Q .022 ~ 

.Q 

C 

l.. .011 c.. 

.000 

0.0 0.6 0.9 

page 32 

12 

Fr 

218 .CI 

c:: 

C'D 

:I 

109 ~ 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cell: M43 
I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Crystal Ball Report

Simulation started on 3/25/99 at 10:19:59

Simulation stopped on 3/25/99 at 10:24:23

(Commercial) ® EIS Cell: K49

Summary:

Certainty Level is 74.80%

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity

Display Range is from ($30) to $40

Entire Range is from ($20) to $71

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Forecast LCC SSavirgs 2F96 ( 'al) - ®S

10,000 Trials Requency CBmrt

.033 -1

64.

------------------

----------------

-------------- A I

.000 __eee^IrBli^^ I ^ I ^Illllllllll n

=$7

^IIIIII^I'I^Illit^'i.1ee.®ee

($30) ($13) $5 $Zi $40

nlyis 748D'/ofiun$O b+Ufirity

84 Oulliers

333

249.7

t Q

0

Page 33

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

i:\ballast\lcc\ICC runs 3-99\3-25-99 - -

crystal Ban Report 

Simulation started on 3/25/99 at 10:19:59 

Simulation stopped on 3/25/99 at 10:24:23 

Forecast: LCC savings 2F96 (Commercial> .. EIS 

Summary: 

Certainty level is 74.80% 

Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity 

Display Range is from <$3Q) to $40 

Entire Range is from <$20) to $71 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 

fOIl ecast lCC Savings 2F96 (Conmercial) - 8S 

10,000 Trials ~01art 84 OuUiers 

.033 333 

.025 249.7 

~ ." 

... 

C"I) 

.cI .017 166.5 .c 

«:I c: .cI C"I) 

0 :::I ... 

c.. .003 8325 ~ 

.00) 0 

(SID) 

C81airtyis 74.W'lofrtm$11D·+hiirity 

page 33 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cen: 1<49 
I:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Ce1L

Summary:

Display Range is from 0.0 to 35.0

Entire Range is from 1.3 to 142.1

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1

Forecast: LCC savinos ) - EIS Cell: K54

Summary:

Certainty Level is 44.51%

Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity

Display Range is from ($25) to $25

Entire Range is from ($22) to $51

10, Trials

.032

.024

.000

Savings 2 (Industrial) - ®S

FremeancvChart

C rtyis44.51%fmm$Dto-Hr0rety

$13

105 Oulliers

320

4 0

Page 34

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\bailast\lcc\lcc Juns _ 3-99\3-2S-99 

Forecast: 

Summary: 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 35.0 

Entire Range is from 1.3 to 142.1 

.. EIS 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1 

Faecast Payback 2~ (Carmerclal) -as 

10,000 Trials ~Chart 1180u11iers 

.~~---.--~-----------------------,.~ 

.043 -~_________________________________ ~2 

.000 

17.5 

Forecast: Lee savings 2F96 (Industrial) .. EIS 

summary: 

Certainty Level is 44.51% 

certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from <$2S) to $25 

Entire Range is from <$22) to S51 

Faecast LCC Savings 2~ Onduslrial) - as 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 105 OuIiiers 

.~~--------------.~---------------,. 32) 

.024 240 

." 

... 

C'D 

100 .Cl 

= C'D 

= 00 ~ 

.000 -'----,-__ ...ww 0 

O31airtyis 44.51% m$)1D +lrmrity 

page 34 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cell: M49 

cell: K54 
I:\hallast\ICC\ICC runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Forecast.- PaYbaCk 2F96 (industrial) ® EIS Cell: 54

Summary:

Display Range is from 0.0 to 35.0

Entire Range is from 1.1 to 465.3

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1

10,000 Trials

.043 -+

Rrecast Payback 2F96 (l al) - ®S

---------------------------------

:1

A

IL

.011

.000 1 11

0.0

1111111114

Ntw=a

8.8 17.5 2&3

4

35.0

Forecast: LCC Savings 2F96HO (Commercial) ® Cell: K60

Summary:

Certainty Level is 88.99%

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity

Display Range is from ($15) to $40

Entire Range is from ($14) to $80

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Fcx LCC Savings 2 ( 'al) - CC

10,000 Trials Chart

MO

.023

fYYI .=^.. III'I11I1'II'I^^III1^11l1.1s..e n

37 iers

- 432

- 324

0

78 Tiers

- 301

® ca

_ 225.7

15 .015 - --------------------- 1505 C

-------------- -- 752

($15) M) $13 $26 $40

C ntyis88.99% u n$ tp+irfinily

Page 35

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 - -

Forecast: payback 2F96 (Industrial> .. EIS 

Summary: 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 35.0 

Entire Range is from 1.1 to 465.3 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast Payback 2f96 OnWsirial) - ElS 

Frequency Chart 37 Ouifiers 

.043 ~----.-~-----------------------,-~ 

.002 

~________________________________ ~4 

~ 

.c .022 (1:1 

.c 

Q 

I.. .011 C. 

.oco 

0.0 a8 17.5 26.3 

.." 

c:; 

216 .c 

c 

I"D 

= 100 ~ 

Forecast: LCC Savings 2F96HO (Commercial> - CC 

Summary: 

certainty Level is 88.99% 

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from <$15) to $40 

Entire Range is from <$14) to $80 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 

forecast lCC Savings 2F96HO (Corrmercial) - CC 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 

.lID 

.Im 

~ 

.c .015 (1:1 

.c 

Q 

I.. .ro! C. 

.oco 

($15) 

O31airtyis 88.99"Iofn:mro lo-+lrlirity 

page 35 

780uifiers 

3)1 

Z!S.7 

.." 

.... 

C'tI 

100.5 .c 

c 

C'tI 

7525 = 

~ 

0 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

Cell: M54 

Cell: 1<60 
l:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

LCC

Summary:

Certainty Level is 97.66%

Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity

Display Range is from ($20) to $80

Entire Range is from ($13) to $146

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Summary:

Certainty Level is 99.80%

Certainty Range is from 0.0 to +Infinity

Display Range is from 0.0 to 30.0

Entire Range is from -345.3 to 865.5

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the mean is 0.2

10,000 Trials

.100 -r-

------------------------------------- M5

r------------------------------------- -

---------------------------------------24,9.5

2 ( 'al)-CC

Chart 90 Ouiiers

0

0.0 7.5 15.0 225 30.0

Oertartyis99.80%fr na0m+Irfirity

0

q

Cell:

Page 36

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcC Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

LCC Savings 2F!!16HID 

summary: 

certainty level is 97.66% 

certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity 

Display Range is from ($20) to $80 

Entire Range is from ($13) to $146 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 

Forecast Lee Savings 2F96HO (Corrmercial) - ERS 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 83 OuiIiers 

m1~----------~--~---------------,· 

.023 

~ .Q .016 ~ 

.Q 

e 

I. .008 a. 

.000 

($2) 

Ca1airtyis97.66%fian$J1o-tlrlirity 

Forecast: Payback 2F96HO (Commercial) EO CC 

Summary: 

certainty level is 99.80% 

certainty Range is from 0.0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 30.0 

Entire Range is from -345.3 to 865.5 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.2 

fuecast Pa)mck 2F96HO (Corrmercial) - CC 

311 

:m.2 

-n 

... 

C'II 

155.5 .c 

c 

C'II 

::I 

71.75 ~ 

0 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 90 OuiIiers 

~ 

:E 

~ 

.Q 

e 

I. 

a. 

.100 -r---;---.-----------------------,. 998 

,fIlS 

.050 

.025 

.000 

0.0 

--~--___________________________________ 74&5 

I 

I 

I 

I 

r------------------------------------- I 

7$ 15.0 225 

Ca1airtyis 99.8O"kfiano.Olo-tlrlirity 

page 36 

~ 499 .c 

C 

C'II 

::I 

249$ ~ 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cell: 

cell: M60 
Forecast: P

I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99

(Commercial) -

Summary:

Display Range is from 0.0 to 17.5

Entire Range is from 0.4 to 102.0

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0

Forecast Payback 2 ( reial) -ERS

10,000 Trials

.057

-----------------------

------------------------------------ - 4a,5

m

c9

-----------------------------------285 - c

ca

Ok Q

.019

Nttn=a4.

® 0

4.4 8.8 13.1 17.5

5/26/99 8:38 AM

Cell: 61

Forecast-. LCC Savings 2F96HO (industrial) ® Cell: K66

Summary:

Certainty Level is 50.77%

Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity

Display Range is from ($25) to $30

Entire Range is from ($21) to $58

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Forecast LCC Savings 2F9M (Industrial) - CC

10,000 Trials Regmicy Cliart

.037

B

O

C- .009

0.0

87 Oudiers

570

30 outliers

- 371

-278.2

4--------------------I- 185.5

------------ IIHHIHHHIHNFNNN^NNINNN^i.----------------

,.o.Ililll0

($25) p11) $3 $16 $30

C.eflairtyiS50.771/ofr m$Ob4lr&ity

- 9275

0

1

C

Page 37

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

Forecast: payback 2F96HO (Commercial) .. ERS 

Summary: 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 17.5 

Entire Range is from 0.4 to 102.0 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0 

Forecast Payback 2A*iHO (Carmercial) - ERS 

10,000 Trials. Frequency Chart 87 Outliers 

.~~--~~-------------------------,-~ 

.043 

-+__________________________________ ~E 

~ 

.c .029 

0;, 

.CI 

Q 

to. .014 c.. 

.(XX) 

0.0 4.4 as 13.1 17E 

." 

... 

C'1) 

285 .c 

c: 

C'1) 

:::I 

142.5 ~ 

Forecast: LCC savings 2F96HO (Industrial) .. CC 

Summary: 

certainty Level is 50.77% 

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from ($25) to $30 

Entire Range is from ($21) to $S8 

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 

Faecast: u::c Savings 2A*iHO (lndusbial) - CC 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 30 Outliers 

.~~------------~~--------------~- 371 

.028 278.2 

." 

... 

C'1) 

1855 .c 

c: 

C'1) 

:::I 

92.75 ~ 

.(XX) -'----..,-_ ....... 0 

($11) $3 $16 ~ 

Certair1yis 5:l.77"klitmro to -+lrlirity 

page 37 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

Cen: 11161 

Cell: K66 
I:\ha11k.9t\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

ell: K67

Summary:

Certainty Level is 94.20%

Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity

Display Range is from ($20) to $60

Entire Range is from ($12) to $92

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

-

Summary:

Certainty Level is 86.69%

Certainty Range is from 0.0 to +Infinity

Display Range is from -50.0 to 50.0

Entire Range is from -33198.3 to 14291.3

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 4.5

2 (I'al) - CC

10,000 Trials Requencyaurt

Z

CL

-.0

474 Q4liers

-13w

---------------------1- 975

650 C

C1i b1 325

i::::::I::::: :j

Page 38

4

50.0

-0

Cell:

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\ICC Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

Forecast: Savings 

summary: 

certainty level is 94.20% 

certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from ($20> to $60 

Entire Range is from ($12) to $92 

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is $0 

Forecast Lee Savings 2F96HO@ndus1rial) - ERS 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 750u1fier.s 

.035 

.026 

~ 

.CI .017 

«:I 

.CI 

e 

e.. .009 l:l. 

.000 

($20) 

CeI1airtyis 94.2JO'{'fn:m$l1o -tlrnrity 

Forecast: Payback 2F96HO (Industrial) EO CC 

summary: 

certainty level is 86.69% 

certainty Range is from 0.0 to + Infinity 

Display Range is from -50.0 to 50.0 

Entire Range is from -33198.3 to 14291.3 

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is 4.5 

347 

2602 

." 

... 

C'I) 

173.5 .c 

c 

C'I) 

:= 

86.75 ~ 

0 

10,000 Trials 474 OuIfier.s 

.130 1300 

.~ ---------------------- -------------------- g.ffi 

.~ ." 

... 

C'I) 

.CI .065 650 .c 

«:I c 

.CI C'I) 

e 

e.. .033 l:l. 

:= 

32) ~ 

.000 0 

-60.0 -25.0 0.0 25.0 50.0 

CeI1airtyis 86.ES%fn:mo.Olo-tlrnrity 

page 38 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cen: K67 

Cell: M66 
I:\ballast\ICC\ICC runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Forecast: ,_ (industrial)

Summary:

Display Range is from 0.0 to 17.5

Entire Range is from 0.5 to 273.5

After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0

2FX)HO ( al)-ERS

10,000 Trials Frequency Chad 37 jars

.053

.ODD

n----------------------------------

I11

1Nr------

fin-3.8

4.4 H 13.1 17.5

527

3952

0

Ceu: 67

Page 39

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 - -

Forecast: payback 2F96HO (Industrial> .. ERS 

summary: 

Display Range is from 0.0 to 17.5 

Entire Range is from 0.5 to 273.5 

After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is 0.0 

Forecast: Payback 2F96HO Ondustrial) -ERS 

10,000 Trials FrecpJencyOiart 37 Outliers 

~ 

.Q 

.;e 

..CI 

C 

II.. 

a. 

.~~--~--~-----------------------,-~ 

.00 

.026 

.013 

.000 

0.0 

__ ._________________________________ ~2 

I 

I 

I 

4.4 &S 13.1 

page 39 

17.5 

~ 263.5 .CI 

C 

C'TJ 

::I 

131.7 ~ 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

cell: M67 
1,101i LLcn' c,u. Price

Dimwits Rafe Is W y,

All Dollar Values arr. in J9.97 S

Normalized Annual First Yr Ballast PV of Savings

Fixture Energy Use Energy Equip. & Lamp & LC(: as % Payback

Ballast Type Watts (kWh/yr) Cost Labor Cost Labor Cost LCC Savings of LCC ( years)

1997 Estimated ahipmtnrts thr all BEM ballasts apera; ing 4 it lamps (which include industrial appisc ttons) is 25.4 millioni Lamp Fixture (7%-) (Commercial Sector)

3400 annual hours, 14.7yrs life

e 1F40 T12/ES 42.3

Cathode Cutout 1F40 T12/ES 38.9

Electronic, Rapid Start 1F40 TI2/ES 32.4

Electronic, Rapid Start 1F32 T8/RE70 27.2

2 Lamp Fixture (40 %°*) (Commercial Sector)

3400 annual hours; 14.7yrs life

Baseline 2F40 T12/ES 72.4

Cathode Cutout 2040 T121ES 65.9

Electronic, Rapid Start 2040 TRIES 62.0

Electronic, Rapid Start 2F32 T8/RE70 50.3

3 Lamp Fixture - tandem wired (4%°°) (Commercial sector)

3400 annual hours, 14.7yrs life

Baseline (1.5) 2040 T12/ES 105.1

Cathode Cutout (1.5) 2F40 TI2/ES 94.9

Electronic, Rapid Start 3F40 T12/ES 93.2

Electronic, Rapid Start 3032 TSIRE70 69.9

3 Lamp Fixture - not tandem wired (18%°x) (Commercial Sector)

3400 annual hour, 14.7yrs hfe

Baseline 1F40 & 2F40 T12/ES 110.8

Cathode Cutout 1F40 & 2F40 T12/ES 100.8

Electronic, Rapid Start 3F40 T12/ES 93.2

Electronic, Rapid Start 3032 T8/RE70 69.9

4 Lamp Fixture (31%°°) (Commercial Sector)

3400 annual hours, 14.7yrs hfe

Baseline (2) 2F40 T12/ES 140.0

Cathode Cutout (2) 2F40 T12/ES 126.0

Electronic, Rapid Start (2) 2040 T12/ES 121.0

Electronic, Rapid Start 4032 TS/RE70 90.2

1997 Estimated Shim. nerits for 2F961'l21ES ballasts is 5,0 miliion°

2096 T12/ES (Commercial)

3300 annual hours, 15.2yrslife

Baseline 126.1

Electronic,Instant Start 111.3

144 $9.95 $34.89 $13.84 $130

132 $9.15 $41.73 $19.45 $135

110 $7.62 $47.75 $13.84 $123

92 $6.39 $42.55 $14.88 $109

5% 5.5

16% 25

246 $17.03 $36.29 $15.87 $190

224 $15.50 $45.33 $22.31 $194 53 -2%

211 $14.58 $47.69 $15.87 $182 39 4%

171 $11.82 $46.60 $17.95 $161 930 16%

357 $24.72 $47.82 $17.89 $266

323 $22.32 $61.38 $25.14 $268 41 0%

317 $21.92 $64.92 $17.89 $261 S6 2%

238 $16.44 $63.28 $21.01 $218 945) 18%

377 $26.06 $54.64 $17.89 $294

343 $23.70 $70.52 $25.14 $288

317 $21.92 $65.11 $17.89 $261

238 $16.44 $53.52 $21.01 $208

1% ..___$n...."

8%

27% -0.1

476 $32.92 $56.04 $19.90 $343

428 $29.63 $74.12 $27.98 $343 '__..$1 0% 6.?

411 $28.45 $73.07 $19.90 $324 $19 6% 3.8

307 $21.20 $58.47 $24.07 $255 $89 26% 0,2

416 $28.78 $63. 86 $31.13 $332

367 $25.40 $8123 $31.13 $322 -"$11) 3% 3:Y

2096 T12/ES (Industrial)

3700 annual hours, 13.5yrslfe

Baseline 126.1 467 $20.47 $63.86 $33.09 $252

Electronic,Instant Start 111.3 412 $18.07 $81.23 $33.09 $251 0% -._7.

1997 Estimated Sltipuntnts for 2F96T12H0:TS ballasts is 03 million2F96 T12110/ES (Commercial)

3700 annual hours, 13.S yrslife

Baseline 200.0 740 $51.18 $85.42 $57.81 $541

Cathode Cutout 185.3 686 547.42 $88.99 $71.80 $530 " "$12 2% 1,,6

Electronic, Rapid Start 176.5 653 $45.17 $97.47 $57.81 $507 $35 6% 10

2F96 TI2HO/ES (Industrial)

4600 annual hours, 10.9 yrs life

Baseline 200.0 920 $40.37 $85.42 $63.92 $421

Cathode Cutout 185.3 852 $37.41 $88.99 $79.43 $420 S I 0% 3.1

Electronic, Rapid Start 1765 812 $35.63 $97.47 $63.92 $401 $20 5% 25

° Based on first 6 months' data on EEM ballast shipments from REMA

0° Percent of total 4 ft fixture shipments.

Present values are discounted at 8% to the year of purchase ( 2003) ElectricityPrice in the First Year (cent(kWh)

Com Ind

2003 6.92 4.39

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67L

Normalized Annual FrutYr IlaIIast PYof Savings 

FIXtUre Energy Use Energy Equip. & Lamp & LCC as% 

IlaIIast Watts (kWhlyr) Cost Labor Cost Labor Cost LeC Savings 

1997 Esurnclred Shipmellts t(lr an EEM ban~i.., ('Ipernring 4 tt lamps (\\'h;ch Include mdustrial apph~th)ns) IS :!5.4 million* 

1 Lamp Fixture (7%**) (Commercial Sector) 

3400 annual hours, 14. 7 yrs life 

Baseline IF4DTI2IES 42.3 144 $9.95 $34.89 $13.84 $130 

Cathode Cutout IF40T12IES 38.9 132 $9.15 $41.73 $19.45 $135 -5% 

Electronic, Rapid Start IF40T12IES 32.4 110 $7.62 $47.75 $13.84 $123 5% 

Electronic, Rapid Start IF32 T8JRE70 27.2 92 $6.39 $42.55 $14.88 $109 16% 

2 Lamp FIXtUre (40%**) (Commercial Sector) 

3400 annual hours, 14. 7 yrs life 

Baseline 2F40T12IES 72.4 246 $17.03 $36.29 $15.87 $190 

Cathode Cutont 2F40T12IES 65.9 224 $15.50 $45.33 $22.31 $194 -2% 

Electronic, Rapid Start 2F40T12IES 62.0 211 $1458 $47.69 $15.87 $182 4% 

Electronic, Rapid Start 2F32 T8/RE70 50.3 I7J $11.82 $46.60 $17.95 $161 

3 Lamp FIXtUre - tandem wired (4%"*) (Commercial Sector) 

3400 annual hours, 14. 7 yrs life 

Baseline (1.5) 2F40 TI2lES 105.1 357 $24.72 $47.82 $17.89 $266 

Cathode Cutont (1.5) 2F40 T12IES 94.9 323 $22.32 $61.38 $25.14 $268 0% 

Electronic, Rapid Start 3F40T121ES 93.2 317 $21.92 $64.92 $17.89 $261 2% 

Electronic, Rapid Start 3F32 T8/RE70 69.9 238 $16.44 $63.28 $21.01 $218 18% 

3 Lamp FJXtore - nOI toodem wired (18%-) (Commercial Sector) 

3400annualhours, 14.7yrslife 

Baseline IF40 & 2F40 T121ES 110.8 377 $26.06 $54.64 $17.89 $284 

Cathode Cntont IF40 & 2F40 T12IES 100.8 343 $23.70 $70.52 $25.14 $288 ·1% 

Electronic, Rapid Start 3F40T12IES 93.2 317 $21.92 $65.11 $17.89 $261 8% 

Electronic, Rapid Start 3F32 T8/RE70 69.9 238 $16.44 $53.52 $21.01 $208 27% 

4 Lamp Fixlore (31 %-) (Commercial Sector) 

34ooannualhours, 14.7yrslife 

Baseline (2) 2F40 T12IES 140.0 476 $32.92 $56.04 $19.90 $343 

Cathode Cutout (2) 2F40 T12IES 126.0 428 $29.63 $74.12 $27.98 $343 0% 

Electronic, Rapid Start (2) 2F40 T121ES 121.0 411 $28.45 $73.07 $19.90 $324 6% 

Electronic, Rapid Start 4F32 T8/RE70 90.2 307 $21.20 $58.47 $24.07 $255 26% 

. Estim.aled Shipmenrs T'\)T 2F96TI2/ES ballaSTS is {i.O million" 

T12IES (Commercial) 

3300 annual hours, 15.2 yrs life 

Baseline 126.1 416 $28.78 $63.86 $31.13 $332 

Electronic, Instoot Start 111.3 367 $25.40 $81.23 $31.13 $322 3% 

2F96 T121ES (Industrial) 

3700 annual hours, 13.5 yrs lift 

Baseline 126.1 467 $20.47 $63.86 $33.09 $252 

Electronic, Instant Start 111.3 412 $18.07 $81.23 $33.09 $251 0% 

1997 Estimdled SlriPlIl<'!lt< tor 2F96Tl2HOiES ballru.1$ is 03 million" 

2F96 TI2HO/ES (Commercial) 

3700 annual hours, U.s yrs life 

Baseline 200.0 740 $51.18 $85.42 $57.81 $$41 

Cathode Cutout 185.3 686 $47.42 $88.99 $71.80 $530 2% 

Electronic, Rapid Start 176.5 653 $45.17 $97.47 $57.81 $S07 6% 

~F96 Tl2HO/ES (IndustriaI) 

4600 annual hours, 10.9 yrs life 

Baseline 200.0 920 $40.37 $85.42 $63.92 $421 

Cathode Cutout 185.3 852 $37.41 $88.99 $79.43 $420 

Electronic, Rapid Start 1765 812 $35.63 $97.47 $63.92 $401 

•• Percent oftota! 4 ft fixture shipments. 

Present values are diseouoted at 8% to the year of purchase ( 2003) Electricity Price in the Fru! Year (centlkWh) 

Com Ind 

2003 6.92 4.39