MARKET SHARE CALCULATIONS FOR REPLACEMENT IN CASE OF PROBLEMDecision ParametersReplacement Market ShareEvolution of Probabilities for Replacement (prob. < prob. in 1996 indicates fewer repairs)YearProduct Price Operating Savings Income Price/Income Interest CAC/HP None Total1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22Parameters for Market Share Calculations for Replacement Units1951$10,425.34-$233.04 $23,911 44.90% 3.25 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001952$9,932.80-$229.89 $25,213 40.61% 3.25 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001953$9,464.21-$228.60 $25,808 37.85% 3.25 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Equip. Price in 1998 (98$)$2,2361954$9,018.49-$224.42 $25,320 36.80% 3.25 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001955$8,594.61-$225.74 $27,130 32.79% 3.25 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Oper. Cost in 1998 (98$)$1971956$8,191.60-$218.89 $28,573 29.69% 3.75 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001957$7,808.58-$208.11 $28,209 28.66% 4.00 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001958$7,444.67-$201.01 $27,990 27.55% 3.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001959$7,099.09-$198.68 $29,652 24.83% 4.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001960$6,771.08-$192.15 $30,192 23.28% 5.00 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001961$6,459.95-$186.68 $31,339 21.41% 4.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00INITIAL MARKET SHARE1962$6,165.04-$179.69 $31,698 20.20% 4.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00CAC/HP1963$5,885.77-$173.16 $32,403 18.88% 4.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Stock in 19800.751964$5,621.59-$164.99 $33,446 17.47% 4.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01Replacement (1980)0.011965$5,372.00-$156.55 $34,826 16.02% 4.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.011966$5,136.56-$148.10 $35,993 14.82% 5.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.011967$4,914.88-$139.84 $35,878 14.22% 5.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02COEFFICIENT bPrice Coefficient1968$4,663.15-$131.45 $37,861 12.78% 6.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.20 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03CAC/HP1969$4,525.68-$122.28 $39,494 11.87% 7.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.20 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.0401970$4,413.86-$113.73 $39,430 11.58% 8.00 0.00 1.00 1.000.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.27 0.26 0.24 0.22 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.041971$4,359.34-$112.59 $39,473 11.42% 5.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.28 0.27 0.25 0.22 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04COEFFICIENT cSavings Coefficient1972$4,278.06-$111.39 $41,414 10.69% 5.00 0.00 1.00 1.000.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.11 0.16 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.27 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.05CAC/HP1973$4,092.59-$105.18 $42,125 10.05% 7.25 0.00 1.00 1.000.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.07 0.13 0.19 0.38 0.37 0.35 0.32 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.0601974$3,963.71-$107.90 $40,401 10.17% 11.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.07 0.13 0.18 0.37 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.061975$4,142.55-$105.21 $39,985 10.71% 7.25 0.00 1.00 1.000.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.11 0.16 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.27 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.05COEFFICIENT fIncome Coefficient1976$4,174.66-$100.83 $40,891 10.54% 7.00 0.00 1.00 1.000.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.11 0.16 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.05CAC/HP1977$4,052.05-$95.20 $41,658 10.03% 6.75 0.00 1.00 1.000.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.07 0.13 0.19 0.38 0.37 0.35 0.32 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.0601978$3,948.25-$94.64 $42,951 9.49%8.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.09 0.15 0.22 0.43 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.10 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.081979$3,828.78-$86.43 $44,134 8.94% 11.75 0.00 1.00 1.000.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.10 0.18 0.25 0.47 0.46 0.44 0.40 0.12 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.09COEFFICIENT gPrice/Income Coefficient1980 $3,657.03 -$84.20 $42,728 8.82% 14.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.11 0.19 0.26 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.41 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.09CAC/HP1981 $3,530.05 -$82.69 $42,146 8.64% 20.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.11 0.19 0.27 0.50 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.10-341982 $3,448.56-$80.93 $41,146 8.64% 16.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.11 0.19 0.27 0.50 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.101983 $3,502.97-$77.03 $41,532 8.68% 10.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.11 0.19 0.27 0.50 0.48 0.46 0.42 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.10COEFFICIENT hInterest Coefficient1984 $3,391.03-$74.14 $42,965 8.12% 12.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.13 0.22 0.31 0.54 0.53 0.51 0.47 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.12CAC/HP1985 $3,316.10-$70.86 $43,887 7.77% 10.00 0.00 1.00 1.000.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.15 0.25 0.33 0.57 0.56 0.54 0.50 0.17 0.10 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.1301986 $3,277.83-$67.10 $45,459 7.41%8.50 0.00 1.00 1.000.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.16 0.27 0.36 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.53 0.19 0.11 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.141987 $3,139.32-$60.41 $46,208 6.97%8.25 0.01 0.99 1.000.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.19 0.30 0.40 0.64 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.21 0.12 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.16COEFFICIENT aCONSTANT/INTERCEPT TERM - New Units1988 $3,116.02-$55.04 $47,017 6.78%9.00 0.01 0.99 1.000.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.20 0.31 0.41 0.65 0.64 0.62 0.58 0.23 0.13 0.06 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.17CAC/HP1989 $3,065.53-$50.46 $47,909 6.54% 11.50 0.01 0.99 1.000.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.21 0.33 0.43 0.67 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.24 0.14 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.18-2.831990 $3,019.68-$46.16 $46,579 6.62% 10.00 0.01 0.99 1.000.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.20 0.32 0.43 0.67 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.24 0.14 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.181991 $2,895.84-$42.24 $45,393 6.50%8.50 0.01 0.99 1.000.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.21 0.33 0.44 0.67 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.24 0.14 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.191992 $2,827.47$0.00$45,128 6.27%6.50 0.01 0.99 1.000.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.22 0.35 0.46 0.69 0.68 0.66 0.63 0.26 0.15 0.07 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.201993 $2,730.73$0.00$46,262 5.90%6.00 0.01 0.99 1.000.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.25 0.38 0.49 0.72 0.71 0.69 0.65 0.28 0.17 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.15 0.221994 $2,684.07$0.00$47,163 5.69%7.25 0.01 0.99 1.000.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.26 0.40 0.51 0.73 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.30 0.18 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.12 0.16 0.231995 $2,665.77$0.00$47,755 5.58%9.00 0.01 0.99 1.000.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.27 0.41 0.51 0.74 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.30 0.18 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.16 0.241996 $2,661.66$0.00$48,831 5.45%8.25 0.01 0.99 1.000.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.02 0.28 0.42 0.53 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.69 0.31 0.19 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.17 0.251997 $2,625.85$0.00$50,567 5.19%8.50 0.01 0.99 1.000.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.29 0.44 0.55 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.33 0.20 0.10 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.18 0.261998 $2,650.33$0.00$51,688 5.13%8.50 0.01 0.99 1.000.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.30 0.44 0.55 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.34 0.21 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.14 0.18 0.271999 $2,650.33$0.00$52,079 5.09%7.75 0.01 0.99 1.000.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.30 0.45 0.56 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.34 0.21 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.14 0.18 0.272000 $2,650.33$0.00$52,309 5.07%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.30 0.45 0.56 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.72 0.34 0.21 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.14 0.19 0.272001 $2,650.33$0.00$52,574 5.04%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.30 0.45 0.56 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.72 0.34 0.21 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.14 0.19 0.272002 $2,650.33$0.00$52,579 5.04%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.30 0.45 0.56 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.72 0.34 0.21 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.14 0.19 0.272003 $2,650.33$0.00$53,051 5.00%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.31 0.45 0.56 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.72 0.35 0.21 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.19 0.282004 $2,650.33$0.00$53,383 4.96%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.31 0.46 0.57 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.72 0.35 0.22 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.19 0.282005 $2,650.33$0.00$53,933 4.91%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.31 0.46 0.57 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.35 0.22 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.282006 $2,650.33$0.00$54,299 4.88%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.32 0.46 0.57 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.36 0.22 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.20 0.282007 $2,650.33$0.00$54,8404.83%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.32 0.47 0.58 0.78 0.78 0.76 0.73 0.36 0.22 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.20 0.292008 $2,650.33$0.00$55,432 4.78%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.32 0.47 0.58 0.79 0.78 0.76 0.73 0.36 0.23 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.20 0.292009 $2,650.33$0.00$56,050 4.73%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.33 0.48 0.59 0.79 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.37 0.23 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.20 0.292010 $2,650.33$0.00$57,060 4.64%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.33 0.48 0.59 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.74 0.38 0.23 0.12 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.21 0.302011 $2,650.33$0.00$57,373 4.62%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.34 0.49 0.60 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.38 0.24 0.12 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.21 0.302012 $2,650.33$0.00$58,094 4.56%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.02 0.34 0.49 0.60 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.38 0.24 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.21 0.312013 $2,650.33$0.00$58,682 4.52%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.02 0.34 0.50 0.60 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.39 0.24 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.22 0.312014 $2,650.33$0.00$59,438 4.46%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.02 0.35 0.50 0.61 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.39 0.25 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.312015 $2,650.33$0.00$60,170 4.40%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.02 0.35 0.51 0.61 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.39 0.25 0.13 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.22 0.322016 $2,650.33$0.00$61,078 4.34%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.11 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.02 0.36 0.51 0.62 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.76 0.40 0.25 0.13 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.23 0.322017 $2,650.33$0.00$61,799 4.29%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.03 0.36 0.51 0.62 0.81 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.40 0.26 0.14 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.23 0.332018 $2,650.33$0.00$62,860 4.22%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.03 0.37 0.52 0.63 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.41 0.26 0.14 0.12 0.14 0.18 0.23 0.332019 $2,650.33$0.00$63,725 4.16%8.03 0.01 0.99 1.000.12 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.03 0.37 0.53 0.63 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.77 0.42 0.27 0.14 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.24 0.342020 $0.00$0.00$64,643 0.00%8.03 0.06 0.94 1.000.35 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.30 0.28 0.10 0.71 0.82 0.88 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.74 0.60 0.40 0.37 0.41 0.48 0.56 0.682021 $0.00$0.00$65,455 0.00%8.03 0.06 0.94 1.000.35 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.30 0.28 0.10 0.71 0.82 0.88 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.74 0.60 0.40 0.37 0.41 0.48 0.56 0.682022 $0.00$0.00$66,277 0.00%8.03 0.06 0.94 1.000.35 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.30 0.28 0.10 0.71 0.82 0.88 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.74 0.60 0.40 0.37 0.41 0.48 0.56 0.682023 $2,650.33$0.00$67,109 3.95%8.03 0.02 0.98 1.000.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.03 0.39 0.54 0.65 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.43 0.28 0.15 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.250.352024 $2,650.33 $0.00 $67,952 3.90% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.03 0.39 0.55 0.65 0.83 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.44 0.28 0.15 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.25 0.362025 $2,650.33 $0.00 $68,805 3.85% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.03 0.40 0.55 0.66 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.44 0.29 0.15 0.14 0.16 0.20 0.26 0.362026 $2,650.33 $0.00 $69,669 3.80% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.03 0.40 0.56 0.66 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.79 0.44 0.29 0.16 0.14 0.16 0.20 0.26 0.362027 $2,650.33 $0.00 $70,544 3.76% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.03 0.40 0.56 0.66 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.45 0.29 0.16 0.14 0.16 0.20 0.26 0.372028 $2,650.33 $0.00 $71,430 3.71% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.03 0.41 0.56 0.67 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.80 0.45 0.30 0.16 0.14 0.17 0.20 0.27 0.372029 $2,650.33 $0.00 $72,327 3.66% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.03 0.41 0.57 0.67 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.80 0.46 0.30 0.16 0.14 0.17 0.21 0.27 0.372030 $2,650.33 $0.00 $73,235 3.62% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.03 0.42 0.57 0.67 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.80 0.46 0.30 0.16 0.15 0.17 0.21 0.27 0.38Relative Probability of Replacement23 24 25 26 27 28 29 300.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Probability Functions0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00CAC/HP Age1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 300.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Problems0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.19 0.35 0.77 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Breakdowns0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.18 0.26 0.44 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Replace vs Repair (Relat0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.29 0.44 0.55 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.33 0.20 0.10 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.18 0.26 0.44 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00B-down Xtra Repair0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.18 0.26 0.44 1.000.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Constants0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Extra Repair Life (years, 2-6):60.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Below, we calculate the evolution of these probability functions over time0.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.02 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.03 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Constants-0.60 -0.65 -0.71 -0.79 -0.87 -0.96 -2.19 0.89 1.52 1.96 2.94 2.89 2.78 2.64 1.07 0.39 -0.39 -0.54 -0.35 -0.10 0.25 0.74 1.53 81.77 81.77 81.77 81.77 81.77 81.77 81.770.04 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.06 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.08 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.08 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.09 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.11 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.11 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.11 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.16 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.18 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.19 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.20 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.20 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.19 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.23 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.27 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.30 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.32 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.33 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.33 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.34 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.35 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.38 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.40 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.41 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.42 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.44 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.45 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.45 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.45 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.45 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.45 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.46 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.46 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.47 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.47 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.47 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.48 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.48 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.49 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.49 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.51 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.51 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.52 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.52 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.53 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.82 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.82 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.82 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.55 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.55 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.56 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.56 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.56 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.57 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.57 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.57 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00