MARKET SHARE CALCULATIONS FOR REPLACEMENT IN CASE OF PROBLEM Decision Parameters Replacement Market Share 

Year Product Price Operating Savings Income Price/Income Interest CAC/HP None Total 

Parameters for Market Share Calculations for Replacement Units 1951 $10,425.34 -$233.04 $23,911 44.90% 3.25 0.00 1.00 1.00 

1952 $9,932.80 -$229.89 $25,213 40.61% 3.25 0.00 1.00 1.00 1953 $9,464.21 -$228.60 $25,808 37.85% 3.25 0.00 1.00 1.00 

Equip. Price in 1998 (98$) $2,236 1954 $9,018.49 -$224.42 $25,320 36.80% 3.25 0.00 1.00 1.00 

1955 $8,594.61 -$225.74 $27,130 32.79% 3.25 0.00 1.00 1.00 

Oper. Cost in 1998 (98$) $197 1956 $8,191.60 -$218.89 $28,573 29.69% 3.75 0.00 1.00 1.00 

1957 $7,808.58 -$208.11 $28,209 28.66% 4.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1958 $7,444.67 -$201.01 $27,990 27.55% 3.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 1959 $7,099.09 -$198.68 $29,652 24.83% 4.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 1960 $6,771.08 -$192.15 $30,192 23.28% 5.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1961 $6,459.95 -$186.68 $31,339 21.41% 4.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

INITIAL MARKET SHARE 1962 $6,165.04 -$179.69 $31,698 20.20% 4.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

CAC/HP 1963 $5,885.77 -$173.16 $32,403 18.88% 4.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

 Stock in 1980 0.75 1964 $5,621.59 -$164.99 $33,446 17.47% 4.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 Replacement (1980) 0.01 1965 $5,372.00 -$156.55 $34,826 16.02% 4.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

1966 $5,136.56 -$148.10 $35,993 14.82% 5.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 1967 $4,914.88 -$139.84 $35,878 14.22% 5.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

COEFFICIENT b Price Coefficient 1968 $4,663.15 -$131.45 $37,861 12.78% 6.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

CAC/HP 1969 $4,525.68 -$122.28 $39,494 11.87% 7.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

0 1970 $4,413.86 -$113.73 $39,430 11.58% 8.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 

1971 $4,359.34 -$112.59 $39,473 11.42% 5.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

COEFFICIENT c Savings Coefficient 1972 $4,278.06 -$111.39 $41,414 10.69% 5.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 

CAC/HP 1973 $4,092.59 -$105.18 $42,125 10.05% 7.25 0.00 1.00 1.00 

0 1974 $3,963.71 -$107.90 $40,401 10.17% 11.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

1975 $4,142.55 -$105.21 $39,985 10.71% 7.25 0.00 1.00 1.00 

COEFFICIENT f Income Coefficient 1976 $4,174.66 -$100.83 $40,891 10.54% 7.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 

CAC/HP 1977 $4,052.05 -$95.20 $41,658 10.03% 6.75 0.00 1.00 1.00 

0 1978 $3,948.25 -$94.64 $42,951 9.49% 8.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

1979 $3,828.78 -$86.43 $44,134 8.94% 11.75 0.00 1.00 1.00 

COEFFICIENT g Price/Income Coefficient 1980 $3,657.03 -$84.20 $42,728 8.82% 14.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 

CAC/HP 1981 $3,530.05 -$82.69 $42,146 8.64% 20.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

-34 1982 $3,448.56 -$80.93 $41,146 8.64% 16.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

1983 $3,502.97 -$77.03 $41,532 8.68% 10.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

COEFFICIENT h Interest Coefficient 1984 $3,391.03 -$74.14 $42,965 8.12% 12.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

CAC/HP 1985 $3,316.10 -$70.86 $43,887 7.77% 10.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 

0 1986 $3,277.83 -$67.10 $45,459 7.41% 8.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 

1987 $3,139.32 -$60.41 $46,208 6.97% 8.25 0.01 0.99 1.00 

COEFFICIENT a CONSTANT/INTERCEPT TERM - New Units 1988 $3,116.02 -$55.04 $47,017 6.78% 9.00 0.01 0.99 1.00 

CAC/HP 1989 $3,065.53 -$50.46 $47,909 6.54% 11.50 0.01 0.99 1.00 

-2.83 1990 $3,019.68 -$46.16 $46,579 6.62% 10.00 0.01 0.99 1.00 

1991 $2,895.84 -$42.24 $45,393 6.50% 8.50 0.01 0.99 1.00 1992 $2,827.47 $0.00 $45,128 6.27% 6.50 0.01 0.99 1.00 

1993 $2,730.73 $0.00 $46,262 5.90% 6.00 0.01 0.99 1.00 

1994 $2,684.07 $0.00 $47,163 5.69% 7.25 0.01 0.99 1.00 1995 $2,665.77 $0.00 $47,755 5.58% 9.00 0.01 0.99 1.00 

1996 $2,661.66 $0.00 $48,831 5.45% 8.25 0.01 0.99 1.00 

1997 $2,625.85 $0.00 $50,567 5.19% 8.50 0.01 0.99 1.00 1998 $2,650.33 $0.00 $51,688 5.13% 8.50 0.01 0.99 1.00 

1999 $2,650.33 $0.00 $52,079 5.09% 7.75 0.01 0.99 1.00 2000 $2,650.33 $0.00 $52,309 5.07% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 

2001 $2,650.33 $0.00 $52,574 5.04% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 

2002 $2,650.33 $0.00 $52,579 5.04% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 2003 $2,650.33 $0.00 $53,051 5.00% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 

2004 $2,650.33 $0.00 $53,383 4.96% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 

2005 $2,650.33 $0.00 $53,933 4.91% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 2006 $2,650.33 $0.00 $54,299 4.88% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 

2007 $2,650.33 $0.00 $54,840 4.83% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 

2008 $2,650.33 $0.00 $55,432 4.78% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 2009 $2,650.33 $0.00 $56,050 4.73% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 

2010 $2,650.33 $0.00 $57,060 4.64% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 

2011 $2,650.33 $0.00 $57,373 4.62% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 2012 $2,650.33 $0.00 $58,094 4.56% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 

2013 $2,650.33 $0.00 $58,682 4.52% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 

2014 $2,650.33 $0.00 $59,438 4.46% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 2015 $2,650.33 $0.00 $60,170 4.40% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 

2016 $2,650.33 $0.00 $61,078 4.34% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 

2017 $2,650.33 $0.00 $61,799 4.29% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 2018 $2,650.33 $0.00 $62,860 4.22% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 

2019 $2,650.33 $0.00 $63,725 4.16% 8.03 0.01 0.99 1.00 2020 $0.00 $0.00 $64,643 0.00% 8.03 0.06 0.94 1.00 

2021 $0.00 $0.00 $65,455 0.00% 8.03 0.06 0.94 1.00 

2022 $0.00 $0.00 $66,277 0.00% 8.03 0.06 0.94 1.00 

2023 $2,650.33 $0.00 $67,109 3.95% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 

2024 $2,650.33 $0.00 $67,952 3.90% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 2025 $2,650.33 $0.00 $68,805 3.85% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 2026 $2,650.33 $0.00 $69,669 3.80% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 2027 $2,650.33 $0.00 $70,544 3.76% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 2028 $2,650.33 $0.00 $71,430 3.71% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 2029 $2,650.33 $0.00 $72,327 3.66% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 2030 $2,650.33 $0.00 $73,235 3.62% 8.03 0.02 0.98 1.00 
Relative Probability of Replacement

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Probability Functions

0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 CAC/HP Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 

0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Problems 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.19 0.35 0.77 

0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Breakdowns 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Replace vs Repair (Relat 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.29 0.44 0.55 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.33 0.20 0.10 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 B-down Xtra Repair 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Constants

0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Extra Repair Life (years, 2-6): 6

0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Below, we calculate the evolution of these probability functions over time 

0.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.02 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.03 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Constants -0.60 -0.65 -0.71 -0.79 -0.87 -0.96 -2.19 0.89 1.52 1.96 2.94 2.89 2.78 2.64 1.07 0.39 -0.39 

0.04 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.06 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.08 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.08 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.09 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.11 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.11 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.11 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.16 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.18 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.19 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.20 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.20 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.19 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.23 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.27 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.30 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.32 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.33 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.33 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.34 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.35 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.38 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.40 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.41 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.42 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.44 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.45 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.45 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.45 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.45 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.45 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.46 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.46 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.47 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.47 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.47 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.48 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.48 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.49 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.49 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.51 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.51 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.52 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.52 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.53 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.82 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.82 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.82 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.55 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.55 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.56 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.56 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.56 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.57 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.57 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.57 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00