10-i 

CHAPTER 10. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 10-1

10.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METHODOLOGY ..................................................................... 10-1

10.2.1 Historical Shipments ............................................................................................. 10-1

10.3 BASE-CASE INPUTS AND PROJECTIONS ................................................................. 10-2

10.3.1 Base-Case Scenarios ............................................................................................. 10-2

10.3.1.1 High-Pressure Sodium Lamps ............................................................... 10-3

10.3.1.2 Mercury Vapor Lamps ........................................................................... 10-4

10.3.1.3 Metal Halide Lamps ............................................................................... 10-5

10.3.2 Representative Lamps ........................................................................................... 10-5

10.3.3 Base-Case Projections Results for > 1,900 K–≤ 2,800 K and 50 W–1,000 W HighIntensity Discharge Lamps ................................................................................... 10-8

10.3.4 Base-Case Results for > 2,800 K–≤ 4,500 K and 50 W–400 W HID Lamps ..... 10-11

10.3.5 Base-Case Projections Results for > 2,800 K–≤ 4,500 K and 401 W–1,000 W HighIntensity Discharge Lamps ................................................................................. 10-14

10.3.6 Base-Case Projections Results for > 2,800 K–≤ 4,500 K and 1,000+ W HighIntensity Discharge Lamps ................................................................................. 10-15

10.4 STANDARDS-CASE INPUTS ...................................................................................... 10-16

10.4.1 Shipments Scenario ............................................................................................. 10-16

10.5 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................... 10-16

REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................ 10-18

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.3.1 Portion Rated Life of Mercury Vapor Ballasts as of Effective Date .................... 10-4

Table 10.3.2 Representative and Typical High-Pressure Sodium Lamp Mixture ..................... 10-6

Table 10.3.3 Representative and Typical Mercury Vapor Lamp Mixture ................................. 10-6

Table 10.3.4 Representative and Typical Probe-Start Metal Halide Lamp Mixture ................. 10-7

Table 10.3.5 Representative and Typical Pulse-Start Metal Halide Lamp Mixture .................. 10-7

Table 10.3.6 Representative and Typical Ceramic Metal Halide Lamp Mixture ...................... 10-8

Table 10.5.1 Cumulative Lamp Shipments by Candidate Standard Level, Lamps Shipped 

in 2017–2046 ................................................................................................... 10-17

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.2.1 Historical HID Lamp Shipments ......................................................................... 10-2

Figure 10.3.1 70 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments.................................................... 10-8

Figure 10.3.2 100 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments .................................................. 10-9

Figure 10.3.3 250 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments .................................................. 10-9

Figure 10.3.4 400 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ................................................ 10-10

Figure 10.3.5 1,000 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments............................................. 10-10

Figure 10.3.6 100 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ................................................ 10-11

Figure 10.3.7 175 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ................................................ 10-12
10-ii

Figure 10.3.8 250 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ................................................ 10-12

Figure 10.3.9 400 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ................................................ 10-13

Figure 10.3.10 400 W Probe-Start MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ........................... 10-13

Figure 10.3.11 1,000 W MV MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments .................................... 10-14

Figure 10.3.12 1,000 W Probe-Start MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ........................ 10-15

Figure 10.3.13 2,000 W Probe-Start MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments ........................ 10-16
10-1 

CHAPTER 10. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

Shipments of high-intensity discharge (HID) lamps are key inputs to the national energy 

savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) calculations. Shipments are also a necessary input to 

the manufacturer impact analysis, which the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducts for its 

notices of proposed rulemaking. This chapter describes DOE’s methodology for projecting 

annual shipments and presents initial inputs and results for HID lamps. 

In the shipments analysis, DOE develops a base-case shipment projection for each HID 

lamp type to depict what would happen to energy use and customer costs for the purchase and 

operation of HID lamp-ballast-fixture systems (herein “HID lamp systems”) in the absence of 

potential Federal energy conservation standards. In determining the base case, DOE considers 

historical shipments, emerging technologies, the mix of efficiencies sold in the absence of 

potential standards, and how that mix might change over time. To evaluate the effects of 

standards on HID lamps, DOE then compares the base-case projection with projections of what 

could happen if DOE promulgates new standards (the standards case). To determine the 

cumulative NES and NPV of standards, DOE compares projected shipments of a base case to a 

standards case over the national impact analysis period, 2017–2046. 

The shipments model and the national impacts model are Microsoft Excel spreadsheets 

accessible at www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/product.aspx/productid/60. 

This interim technical support document chapter explains the shipments model. Section 10.2

presents the shipments model methodology for HID lamps; section 10.3 describes the data 

inputs, historical shipments, base-case scenarios, and shipments projections; section 10.4

discusses the effects of proposed new standards on the mix of HID lamp designs; and 

section 10.5 presents the shipments results for the different candidate standard levels (CSLs).

10.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METHODOLOGY

In general, DOE followed a three-step process to project lamp shipments. First, DOE 

used historical lamp shipment data from the National Electrical Manufacturers Association

(NEMA) and data from DOE sources to estimate the total historical shipments of each HID lamp 

type analyzed. Second, DOE calculated an installed stock for each lamp from 2017 (effective 

date of the standard) forward based on the average service lifetime of each lamp type. Third, by 

modeling events that trigger lamp purchases, such as replacement and new construction, and 

applying growth rate, replacement rate, and emerging technologies penetration rate assumptions, 

DOE developed annual shipment projections for 2017–2046. 

10.2.1 Historical Shipments

DOE has HID lamp shipments data from NEMA for 1990–2010. The resolution differs 

across the time period, but DOE does have total shipments for each lamp type during these years. 

NEMA has also published periodic reports of HID lamp shipments since 2010. The values in 

these reports were factored into the shipments model as they became available, and DOE will 
10-2 

reference the most current available NEMA reports in its notice of proposed rulemaking 

analyses. With these high level values of total shipments per lamp type, DOE makes additional 

estimates on the proportion of shipments for each of the sub-types of each of the HID lamps.

Figure 10.2.1 shows the historical shipments for all HID lamps as well as each of the 

three major types of HID lamps—high-pressure sodium (HPS), mercury vapor (MV), and metal 

halide (MH)—over the last two decades. Since 1990, HID lamps have increased in volume of 

shipments. It appears circa 2005 that HID lamps reached a peak in total shipment volume. The 

economic recession circa 2008–2009 probably accounts more for some reduction in HID lamps 

(and most spending). More time is needed to determine if 2005 represents the zenith in total HID 

lamp shipments; current data supports the case.

Since 1990, MV lamps have been on a slow, gradual decline. Between 1990 and 2010, 

HPS lamps constituted roughly the same amount of shipments each year. The only HID lamp 

type to increase significantly since 1990 are MH lamps. 

Figure 10.2.1 Historical HID Lamp Shipments

10.3 BASE-CASE INPUTS AND PROJECTIONS 

This section describes the base-case scenario DOE employs in its analysis and the basecase input market-share apportioning for HID lamps and presents the base-case projection for 

each lamp type along with historical lamp shipments data. 

10.3.1 Base-Case Scenarios

In general, DOE believes that the overall HID lamp market is on a decline. During the 

HID lamps Framework public meeting, General Electric (GE) discussed its concern about the 

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Total Amount of Shipments

Year

Historical Shipments

All HID Lamp Shipments

HPS Lamps

MV Lamps

MH Lamps
10-3 

fate of the technology in relation to a 30-year projection of shipments. GE stated that there is 

significant flux in the lighting marketplace, specifically with HID lighting. GE elaborated that 

the near term (less than 20 years) is very uncertain and that some HID lamps may not even exist

in the marketplace 10 years from the start of the effective date of a potential rule. (Docket No. 

EERE-2010-BT-STD-0043, GE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 12 at p. 127a) During the metal 

halide lamp fixture energy conservation standard Framework public meeting, manufacturers 

stated that many metal halide high bay fixtures had been replaced with fluorescent high bay 

fixtures between 2000 and 2010. (Docket No. EERE-2009-BT-STD-0018, Philips, No. 8 at p. 

101) During the metal halide lamp fixture preliminary analysis public meeting, manufacturers 

expressed their belief that metal halide lamp fixture shipments had plateaued or were declining.

(Docket No. EERE-2009-BT-STD-0018, Philips, No. 33 at pp. 113 – 122) 

A January 2012 DOE report on energy savings potential of solid-state lighting projects 

significant penetration of light-emitting diode (LED) light sources in the commercial, industrial, 

and outdoor stationary lighting markets, significantly reducing the number of HID lighting 

installations.

1 Total HID lighting in these three markets (as a percentage of lighting service in 

teralumen-hours [Tlm-hr]) is projected to decrease from approximately 8,900 Tlm-hr in 2010 to 

4,170 Tlm-hr in 2030, a decrease of approximately 50 percent. Within each of the sectors, HID 

lighting in the commercial sector is expected to remain largely unchanged until 2020, then 

decrease 20 percent by 2025 and 40 percent by 2030; in the industrial sector, HID lighting is 

projected to decrease 25 percent by 2020, 45 percent by 2025, and 55 percent by 2030; and 

outdoor stationary lighting is projected to decrease 20 percent by 2020, 40 percent by 2025, and 

60 percent by 2030. 

10.3.1.1 High-Pressure Sodium Lamps

Currently HPS lamps, ballasts, or fixtures are not covered by existing Federal regulations. 

HPS lamps are predominantly used in exterior applications and comprise the majority (over 80

percent) of the 52 million (as of 2010) street and highway lighting fixtures in the U.S.2 This 

represents a significant installed base of HPS ballasts and fixtures needing to be serviced by 

replacement lamps. Since 2010, roughly 100 different requests for proposals (RFPs) have been 

issued for LED fixtures to replace the existing street lighting in the U.S.3

 These 100 RFPs 

represent a cumulative $29 million in available funding to replace roughly 54,000 existing street 

lights. These RFPs often represent only a smaller portion of the total amount of installed street 

lights for the respective agency issuing the RFP. In addition to these RFPs, the City of Los 

Angeles has already replaced 107,000 street lights, with near-term plans to replace an additional 

50,000 street lights.4

 Although these examples focus on street lighting, DOE also believes that 

other exterior light fixtures using HPS lamps are also being replaced by LED and other non-HID 

sources.

Traditional HPS streetlights are not only being replaced by LED fixtures, but other light 

sources as well. In January 2012, the City of Kennewick, Washington, announced plans to 

 

a A notation in this form provides a reference for information that is in the docket of DOE’s “Energy Conservation 

Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Energy Conservation Program: High-Intensity 

Discharge Lamps” (Docket No. EERE-2010-BT-STD-0043), which is maintained at.www.regulations.gov. This 

notation indicates that the statement preceding the reference is document number 00013in the docket for the metal 

halide lamp ballasts test procedure rulemaking, and appears at page 8 of that document.
10-4 

replace their 5,000 streetlights (mostly using HPS lamps) with fixtures utilizing induction light 

sources.5

As of the effective date of a potential HID lamps standard, HPS lighting technology will 

be over 50 years old. As demonstrated by the examples of the RFPs and other municipalities 

quickly replacing HPS installations, it is expected that future shipments of HPS lamps will 

decline through the shipments analysis period. 

10.3.1.2 Mercury Vapor Lamps 

The Energy Policy Act of 2005 banned the sale or importation of MV ballasts after 

January 1, 2008. 10 CFR 431.286 The effective date of the potential HID lamps standards would 

be January 1, 2017. This would be 9 years after the last MV ballast was allowed to be sold or 

imported into the U.S. Table 10.3.1 shows the percent of rated life of MV ballasts from the time 

the last ballast could be sold (Jan. 1, 2008) to the start of the analysis period (Jan. 1, 2017) based 

on the operating hours of the different sectors and a ballast life of 50,000 hours.b

Table 10.3.1 Portion Rated Life of Mercury Vapor Ballasts as of Effective Date

Sector Annual Operating 

Hours

Years Between Last 

Sale and Start of 

Analysis Period

Total Estimated 

Number of Hours of 

Operation

Percent of Rated 

Life

Commercial 3,961 9 35,649 71

Industrial 6,113 9 55,017 110

Outdoor 4,493 9 40,437 81

Based on the percent of rated life of the ballast per Table 10.3.1, DOE expects many of 

the ballasts to start failing soon after the start of the analysis period. Once the ballast fails, 

customers will have to consider a different lighting source. Ballasts will start failing in greater 

quantities in the earliest years of the proposed rule.

Periodically, NEMA releases data related to shipments of different light sources. For the 

final quarter of 2011, NEMA stated that MV posted a decline of 19.4 percent on a year-over-year 

basis. MV lamps represent 4.7 percent of HID lamp shipments in general.6 During the first 

quarter of 2012, MV shipments increased 5 percent.

7

At the end of 2012, the City of Boston had replaced over 40 percent of their 64,000 

streetlights (primarily mercury vapor) with LED street light fixtures.

8

 

In April 2009, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities approved a Public Service 

Enterprise Group Incorporated (PSE&G) plan to replace 96,400 MV municipal street lights in 

220 towns in PSE&G’s service territory with induction fixtures.9

Because of the anticipated failure of sales-restricted MV ballasts, the existing decline of 

shipments reported by NEMA, and the plans of cities and municipalities (as demonstrated by 

 

b DOE researched the life of HID ballasts for the metal halide lamp fixture rule. DOE’s research indicated the 

magnetic HID ballasts typically have a life of 50,000 hours and electronic ballasts have a life of 40,000 hours. DOE 

is not aware of any electronic MV ballasts prior to January 1, 2008.
10-5 

Boston and Detroit), DOE expects MV lamps to represent 1 percent of HID lamp shipments in 

2017 and for shipments to decline over the shipment analysis period. 

10.3.1.3 Metal Halide Lamps

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set minimum ballast efficiencies for 

metal halide lamp fixtures with a rated lamp wattage of 150 W to 500 W. (42 U.S.C. 6292 

(hh)(1)(A)) The minimum efficiency of 94 percent for probe-start MHLFs curtailed the 

specification and installation of probe-start metal halide lamp fixtures. Shipment data supports 

this assessment in that probe-start metal halide represented 64 percent of all MH lamp shipments 

in 2008, and declined to 47 percent in 2010. DOE believes that this reduction in probe-start MH 

lamp shipments correlates to a reduction in probe-start lamp fixtures and that the remaining 

lamps being shipped serve existing fixtures.

During the January 2010 metal halide lamp fixture Framework document public meeting, 

Philips commented that it expected to see a significant change between the 2002 and 2010 

versions of the Lighting Market Characterization reports, illustrating a significant reduction of 

MH system usage due to market penetration by fluorescent lighting systems. (Docket No. EERE2009-BT-STD-0018, Philips, No. 8 at p. 101)

Historical data of HID lamp shipments has shown HPS to be roughly one-third of all HID 

shipments regardless of year. Since 1990, MV market share has declined as it was replaced with 

MH lamp systems, with HPS market share staying relatively constant. As stated earlier, MV 

lamp shipments are expected to continue to decline. It is expected that as MV lamps disappear 

from the marketplace, those lamps (and ultimately fixtures) will be replaced by either MH lamp 

systems or other lighting technologies. Therefore, DOE expects the proportion of MH lamp 

shipments to increase in the near term.

10.3.2 Representative Lamps

Table 10.3.2 through Table 10.3.6 show how the commercially available (typical) rated 

lamp wattages are apportioned to the representative lamp wattage. Typically, the conventional 

lamps are equal to or lower than the representative wattage. Usually, a typical lamp is 100 

percent apportioned to the representative wattage, but some lamps are apportioned to two 

different representative lamps (see Table 10.3.5). The lamps are split because the typical lamp 

falls squarely between the two representative lamp wattages and should be apportioned equally.
10-6 

Table 10.3.2 Representative and Typical High-Pressure Sodium Lamp Mixture

Representative Lamp 

Wattage Typical Lamp Wattages Typical Lamp Wattage Assigned to Representative Lamp Wattage

70 50 100%

70 100%

100 100 100%

150 100%

250

200 100%

215 100%

225 100%

250 100%

400

310 100%

360 100%

400 100%

430 100%

1,000

600 100%

700 100%

750 100%

880 100%

940 100%

1,000 100%

Table 10.3.3 Representative and Typical Mercury Vapor Lamp Mixture

Representative Lamp 

Wattage Typical Lamp Wattages Typical Lamp Wattage Assigned to Representative Lamp Wattage

100

50 100%

75 100%

80 100%

100 100%

125 100%

175 160 100%

175 100%

250 250 100%

300 100%

400 400 100%

450 100%

1,000

700 100%

750 100%

1,000 100%
10-7 

Table 10.3.4 Representative and Typical Probe-Start Metal Halide Lamp Mixture 

Representative Lamp 

Wattage Typical Lamp Wattages Typical Lamp Wattage Assigned to Representative Lamp Wattage

175 150 100%

175 100%

250 250 100%

320 100%

400 360 100%

400 100%

1,000

750 100%

950 100%

1,000 100%

1,500 1,500 100%

1,650 100%

2,000 1,800 100%

2,000 100%

Table 10.3.5 Representative and Typical Pulse-Start Metal Halide Lamp Mixture 

Representative Lamp 

Wattage Typical Lamp Wattages Typical Lamp Wattage Assigned to Representative Lamp Wattage

70 50 100%

70 100%

100 100 100%

125 50% to 100 / 50% to 150

150 150 100%

200 175 100%

200 100%

320

250 50% to 200 / 50% to 320

320 100%

360 100%

400 100%

450 100%

750 750 100%

775 100%

875

875 100%

1,000 100%

1,500 100%

2,000 100%
10-8

Table 10.3.6 Representative and Typical Ceramic Metal Halide Lamp Mixture

Representative Lamp 

Wattage Typical Lamp Wattages Typical Lamp Wattage Assigned to Representative Lamp Wattage

50 50 100%

70 70 100%

100 100 100%

150 150 100%

250

210 100%

250 100%

320 100%

315 100%

350 100%

360 100%

400 100%

10.3.3 Base-Case Projections Results for > 1,900 K–≤ 2,800 K and 50 W–1,000 W HighIntensity Discharge Lamps

Figure 10.3.1 through Figure 10.3.5 present the base-case lamp shipments projections for

2017–2046, based on 1990–2010 historical shipments and potential market effects on growth 

rates as described in section 10.3.1.1. Shipments at CSL 1 level are shown as null in Figure 

10.3.1 through Figure 10.3.5 because these lamps are still at the prototype development stage and 

are not currently on the market. 

Figure 10.3.1 70 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

 -

 500,000

 1,000,000

 1,500,000

 2,000,000

 2,500,000

 3,000,000

 3,500,000

 4,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total Amount of Shipments

Year

70 W HPS Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

Effective Date
10-9 

Figure 10.3.2 100 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

Figure 10.3.3 250 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

 -

 500,000

 1,000,000

 1,500,000

 2,000,000

 2,500,000

 3,000,000

 3,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year

100 W HPS Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

Effective Date

 -

 500,000

 1,000,000

 1,500,000

 2,000,000

 2,500,000

 3,000,000

 3,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year

250 W HPS Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

Effective Date
10-10

Figure 10.3.4 400 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

Figure 10.3.5 1,000 W HPS Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

 -

 500,000

 1,000,000

 1,500,000

 2,000,000

 2,500,000

 3,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year

400 W HPS Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

Effective Date

 -

 100,000

 200,000

 300,000

 400,000

 500,000

 600,000

 700,000

 800,000

 900,000

 1,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year

1,000 W HPS Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

Effective Date
10-11

10.3.4 Base-Case Results for > 2,800 K–≤ 4,500 K and 50 W–400 W HID Lamps 

Figure 10.3.6 through Figure 10.3.9 present the base-case lamp shipments projections 

from 2017–2046, modeled from historical data (1990–2010) and other factors as explained in 

section 10.3.1. Shipments at CSL 1 level are shown as null in Figure 10.3.6 and Figure 10.3.7

because no low wattage (under 150 W) probe-start metal halide lamps exist. Baseline shipments 

are shown at null in Figure 10.3.10 because there is not MV option for this equipment class.

Figure 10.3.6 100 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

 -

 500,000

 1,000,000

 1,500,000

 2,000,000

 2,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year

100 W MV Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

Effective Date
10-12

Figure 10.3.7 175 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

Figure 10.3.8 250 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

 -

 200,000

 400,000

 600,000

 800,000

 1,000,000

 1,200,000

 1,400,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year

175 W MV Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

Effective Date

 -

 500,000

 1,000,000

 1,500,000

 2,000,000

 2,500,000

 3,000,000

 3,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year

250 W MV Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

Effective Date
10-13

Figure 10.3.9 400 W MV Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

Figure 10.3.10 400 W Probe-Start MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

 -

 500,000

 1,000,000

 1,500,000

 2,000,000

 2,500,000

 3,000,000

 3,500,000

 4,000,000

 4,500,000

 5,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year

400 W MV Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

Effective Date

 -

 1,000,000

 2,000,000

 3,000,000

 4,000,000

 5,000,000

 6,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year

400 W Probe-Start MH Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

Effective Date
10-14

10.3.5 Base-Case Projections Results for > 2,800 K–≤ 4,500 K and 401 W–1,000 W HighIntensity Discharge Lamps

Figure 10.3.11 through Figure 10.3.12 present the base-case lamp shipments projections 

from 2017–2046, modeled from historical data (1990–2010) and other factors as explained in 

section 10.3.1. Shipments at CSL 1 level are shown as null in Figure 10.3.11 because there is no 

probe-start option for this equipment class. Baseline shipments are shown at null in Figure 

10.3.12 because there is no MV option for this equipment class. 

Figure 10.3.11 1,000 W MV MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments 

Between 2006 and 2010, high wattage (greater than 500 W) probe-start MH lamps 

reduced in volume of shipments by 30 percent. During that same period, high wattage pulse-start 

MH lamps increased twofold. DOE assumes that high wattage probe-start MH lamps will 

continue to decline and in the near term high-wattage pulse-start MH lamps will increase, then 

peak, and then decrease.

 -

 100,000

 200,000

 300,000

 400,000

 500,000

 600,000

 700,000

 800,000

 900,000

 1,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year

1,000 W MV Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

Effective Date
10-15

Figure 10.3.12 1,000 W Probe-Start MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

10.3.6 Base-Case Projections Results for > 2,800 K–≤ 4,500 K and 1,000+ W HighIntensity Discharge Lamps

Figure 10.3.13 present the base-case lamp shipments projections from 2017–2046, 

modeled from historical data (1990–2010) and other factors as explained in section 10.3.1. It is 

assumed that the baseline and CSL 1 lamps shipments are the same for this equipment class and 

therefore the lines are on top of each other in Figure 10.3.13. 

 -

 500,000

 1,000,000

 1,500,000

 2,000,000

 2,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year

1,000 W Probe-Start MH Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

Effective Date
10-16

Figure 10.3.13 2,000 W Probe-Start MH Equipment Class Lamp Shipments

10.4 STANDARDS-CASE INPUTS

10.4.1 Shipments Scenario

To characterize customer behavior in the standards case, DOE considered many 

characteristics that customers take into account when purchasing fixtures. Specifically, DOE 

regarded fixture price and system energy use as two key drivers of customer purchases.

The standards-case scenario for HID lamps includes a roll-up scenario. The roll-up 

scenario represents a standards case in which all equipment efficiencies in the base-case that do 

not meet the standard would roll up to meet the new standard level. Customers in the base case 

who purchase HID lamp systems above the standard level are not affected as they are assumed to 

continue to purchase the same base-case equipment in the roll-up scenario. The roll-up scenario 

characterizes customers primarily driven by the first cost of the analyzed equipment. In a roll-up 

scenario, DOE assumes customers will buy the first standard-compliant system available and 

will attempt to buy a fixture from the same equipment class as their previously demanded 

system. The total volume of shipments is assumed to be the same in base case and standards

case. 

10.5 RESULTS

Table 10.5.1 gives cumulative shipments by equipment class, by CSL, for lamps shipped 

in 2017–2046. 

 -

 20,000

 40,000

 60,000

 80,000

 100,000

 120,000

 140,000

 160,000

 180,000

 200,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Amount of Lamps Shipped

Year

2,000W Probe-Start MH Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

Effective Date
10-17

Table 10.5.1 Cumulative Lamp Shipments by Candidate Standard Level, Lamps Shipped 

in 2017–2046 

Representative 

Equipment Class CSL RepresentativeLamp Type

Total Shipments By 

CSL

≥1,900 K and ≤2,800 K;

≥50 W to ≤1,000 W;

clear; enclosed

Baseline HPS 70 W 39,776,690 

1 HPS 67 W - 

Baseline HPS 100 W 32,544,565 

1 HPS 96 W - 

Baseline HPS 250 W 39,902,466 

1 HPS 240 W - 

Baseline HPS 400 W 33,990,990 

1 HPS 383 W - 

Baseline HPS 1,000 W 11,005,408 

1 HPS 958 W - 

>2,800 K and ≤4,500 K;

≥50 W and ≤400 W;

clear; enclosed

Baseline MV MV 100 W 121,127 

1 N/A - 

Baseline MH / 2 pulse MH 70 W 35,578,125 

3 CMH 50 W 22,428,773 

Baseline MV MV 175 W 146,726 

1 N/A - 

Baseline MH / 2 pulse MH 100 W 17,789,062 

3 CMH 70 W 11,214,387 

Baseline MV MV 250 W 146,726 

Baseline MH / 1 probe MH 175 W 6,635,507 

2 pulse MH 150 W 17,789,062 

3 CMH 100 W 11,214,387 

Baseline MV MV 400 W 195,634 

Baseline MH / 1 probe MH 250 W 9,289,710 

2 pulse MH 200 W 48,627,584 

3 CMH 150 W 11,214,387 

Baseline MV N/A - 

Baseline MH / 1 probe MH 400 W 10,616,811 

2 pulse MH 320 W 60,647,886 

3 CMH 250 W 14,017,983 

>2,800 K and ≤4,500 K

>400 W and ≤1,000 W;

clear; enclosed

Baseline MV MV 1,000 W 3,746 

1 N/A - 

2 pulse MH 750 W 2,426,967 

Baseline MV N/A - 

Baseline MH / 1 probe MH 1,000 W 9,387,139 

2 pulse MH 875 W 27,910,116 

>2,800 K and ≤4,500 K; 

>1,000 W and ≤2,000 W;

clear; enclosed

Baseline MH 2,000 W 580,104 

1 MH 1,500 W 580,104 
10-18

REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Energy–Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy 

Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications. 2012. 

Washington, D.C. <http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/

ssl_energy-savings-report_10-30.pdf>

2. U.S. Department of Energy–Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy 

Savings Estimates of Light Emitting Diodes in Niche Lighting Applications. 2011. 

Washington, D.C. <http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/

nichefinalreport_january2011.pdf> 

3. New Streetlights. New Streetlights. 2012. (Last accessed February 19, 2013.) 

<www.newstreetlights.com> 

4. Bureau of Street Lighting, City of Los Angeles – Department of Public Works. 2012. (Last 

accessed February 19, 2013.) <http://bsl.lacity.org/>

5. Hulse, J. L. Streetlight switch to save city big bucks. Tri-City Herald. January 23, 2012. 

(Last accessed February 19, 2013.) <www.tri-cityherald.com/2012/01/23/1797681/

streetlight-switch-to-save-city.html?storylink=tacoma> 

6. National Electrical Manufacturers Association. Sodium Vapor HID Lamp Index Lone 

Bright Spot for HID Shipments. 2011. (Last accessed February 19, 2013.) 

<www.nema.org/news/Pages/Sodium-Vapor-HID-Lamp-Index-Lone-Bright-Spot-for-HIDShipments.aspx>

7. National Electrical Manufacturers Association. HID Lamp Shipment Indexes Show Growth 

for First Quarter. 2012. (Last accessed February 19, 2013.) 

<www.nema.org/news/Pages/HID-Lamp-Shipment-Indexes-Show-Growth-for-FirstQuarter.aspx>

8. City of Boston. LED Street Lighting. 2012. (Last accessed February 19, 2013.) 

<www.cityofboston.gov/publicworks/lighting/led.asp> 

9. PSG&E. Combating Climate Change. 2011. (Last accessed February 19, 2013.) 

<www.pseg.com/info/environment/climate.jsp>