U.S.Department of EnergyEnergy Conservation Program for Consumer Productsand Commercial and Industrial EquipmentFramework Document Public Meeting onEnergy Conservation Standards for General ServiceFluorescent Lamps, Incandescent Reflector Lamps andGeneral Service Incandescent LampsJune 15, 2006Washington, DCRevised, June 20, 2006http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standardsWelcome and Introduction•Introductions•Role of the Facilitator•Ground Rules (norms)–Listen as an ally–Use short, succinct statements/keep to the point–Hold sidebar conversations outside the room–Focus on issues, not personalities–One person speak at a time (raise hand to be recognized; stateyour name for the record)–Turn down the volume on cellphones or place them on “stun”•Housekeeping Items•Agenda Review•Opening Remarks29:00- 9:05 am9:05- 9:20 am9:20- 9:35 am9:35– 11:00 am11:00- 11:15 am11:15– 12:00 pm12:00- 1:00 pmMorning AgendaWelcomeIntroductions, agenda review, openingremarksRulemaking overview; analytical methodology;product definitionsANOPR ANALYSES:Market and technology assessmentBreakScreening analysis and engineering analysisBreak for Lunch31:00- 2:00 pm2:00- 2:45 pm2:45- 3:00 pm3:00– 3:30 pm3:30- 4:00 pm4:00- 4:30 pm4:30- 5:00 pmAfternoon AgendaMarkups for equipment price determination; energyuse and end-use load characterization; and life-cyclecost and payback period analysisShipments analysis and national impact analysisBreakNOPR ANALYSES:Revisions to ANOPR analyses and LCC subgroupanalysisManufacturer impact analysisUtility impact analysis, employment impact analysis,environmental assessment, and regulatory impactanalysisFINAL RULEOther issues and comments; closing remarks423NOPR Analyses1ANOPR Analyses4Rulemaking OverviewFinal Rule56Closing RemarksPublic Meeting AgendaIntroduction23NOPR AnalysesANOPR Analyses4Rulemaking OverviewFinal Rule5Closing Remarks65IntroductionPurpose of the Framework Document Public Meeting•Present the procedural andanalytical approaches the U.S.Department of Energy (DOE orthe Department) anticipates usingto evaluate energy conservation standards for:•General Service Fluorescent Lamps•Incandescent Reflector Lamps•General Service Incandescent Lamps (which includeincandescent reflector and non-reflector lamps)•Provide a forum for public discussion of issues•Encourage stakeholders to submitdata, information, and writtencomments•Inform stakeholders and facilitate the rulemaking process6IntroductionBackground•The Energy Policy and Conservation Act, as amended–Grants DOE the authority to regulate fluorescent and incandescentlamps–Established energy conservationstandards for general servicefluorescent lamps and incandescent reflector lamps–Requires DOE to review and possibly amend the existing standards–Defines some terms applicable to these lamps•Federal Register-71 FR 30834 (May 31, 2006)–Gives public notice ofthe public meeting and availability of theFramework Document being discussed today–Encourages interested parties to submit comments•Framework Document–Provides an overview of the rulemaking process and encourages earlystakeholder participation–Invites comments on proposed approach and issues–The Framework Document is available online athttp://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/7IntroductionEnergy Conservation Standard Rulemaking Authority•This rulemaking bundles three products: General Service Fluorescent Lamps,Incandescent Reflector Lamps, and General Service Incandescent Lamps.•It addresses two ‘backlog’ requirements from 42 USC 6295(i)(3) and (5):(3)First review and possible amendment to General ServiceFluorescent and Incandescent Reflector Lamp standards(5)Determine whether standards should apply to additional GeneralService Fluorescent and General Service Incandescent LampsGeneral ServiceFluorescent Lamps• First review and possible amendment• Determine if standards apply to other typesIncandescentReflector Lamps• First review and possible amendment• Determine if standards apply to other types*General ServiceIncandescent Lamps• Determine if standards apply to other types*Note: General Service Incandescent Lamp includes incandescent reflector and non-reflector lamps823NOPR Analyses1ANOPR Analyses4IntroductionFinal Rule56Closing RemarksPublic Meeting AgendaRulemaking Overview13NOPR AnalysesANOPR Analyses4IntroductionFinal Rule5Closing Remarks69Rulemaking OverviewStages of the Rulemaking ProcessFederal Register noticesFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRuleStakeholder participation:– Public meetings and oral comments– Written comments on FederalRegister notices, TechnicalSupport Documents and Analytical Spreadsheets– Consultative meetings10Rulemaking OverviewFramework DocumentFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRuleToday• Today’s public meeting covers the Framework Document for thisrulemaking.• The Framework Document provides an overview of therulemaking process and encourages early stakeholderparticipation.• The Department encourages all stakeholders to read theFramework Document, available at:http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/11ANOPRNOPRFinalRuleRulemaking OverviewAnalyses for Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANOPR)NationalImpactAnalysisEnergy Use andEnd-Use LoadCharacterizationMarket andTechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisShipmentsAnalysisFrameworkDocumentNOPRANOPRFinalRule12ANOPRNOPRFinalRuleRulemaking OverviewAnalyses for Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NOPR)FrameworkDocumentEnvironmentalAssessmentLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisReviseANOPRAnalysesNOPRANOPRFinalRule13ANOPRNOPRFinalRuleRulemaking OverviewAnalyses for Final RuleFrameworkDocumentNOPRANOPRDOJReviewReviseNOPRAnalysesFinalRule14Fr a m e w o r k D o c u m e n t A N OP R N OP R Fi n a l R u l e E f f e c t i v e D a t eRulemaking OverviewLamps Rulemaking Schedule20082009 20102009 20102006 20072006 200720112012 20132012 2013MilestoneDateEnd of Comment Period on FrameworkJune 29, 2006ANOPR Published in Federal RegisterNovember 2007NOPR Published in Federal RegisterOctober 2008Final Rule Published in Federal RegisterJune 2009Effective DateJune 201215Rulemaking OverviewTest Procedures•DOE established test proceduresfor fluorescent & incandescentlamps on May 29, 1997. 62 FR29222; Appendix R to Subpart Bof Part 430—Uniform Test Method for Measuring Average LampEfficacy and Color Rendering Index (CRI) of Electric Lamps.•The DOE test procedures for these lamps:–Apply to all lamps covered by this rulemaking.–Measure lamp efficacy* and color rendering index (CRI).**–Incorporate by reference specific industry standards.•DOE does not intend to update these test procedures for thisrulemaking.*Lamp efficacy: “the lumen output of a lamp divided by its wattage, expressed in lumens per watt(LPW).” (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(M))** Color rendering index (CRI):“the measure of the degree ofcolor shift objects undergo whenilluminated by a light source as compared with the color of those same objects when illuminated bya reference source of comparable color temperature.” (42U.S.C. 6291(30)(J))16Rulemaking OverviewFluorescent LampsEPCA defines “fluorescent lamp” as a low pressure mercury electric-dischargesource in which a fluorescing coating transforms some of the ultraviolet energygenerated by the mercury discharge into light, including only the following:1.4-foot, medium bi-pin, straight-shaped lamps, rated wattage≥28.2.2-foot, medium bi-pin, U-shaped lamps, rated wattage of≥28.3.8-foot, recessed double-contact, rapid start, high output lamps, 0.800nominal amperes, as defined in ANSI C78.1–1991.174. 8-foot, single pin, instant start, slimline lamps, rated wattage of≥52, asdefined in ANSI C78.3–1991.1234FluorescentLamps18Straight-shaped48”Medium Bi-pin≥28WU-shaped22-25”Medium Bi-pin≥28 W96”RecessedDouble Contact96”Single Pin≥52 W95W0.8-AmpT12113W0.8 & 1.0­AmpT1260WT1275WT12Rapid-Start LampsInstant-Start Lamps44WT840WT1240WT1240WT1034WT1232WT8Otherlampse.g. T8:30, 28W;...40W6”CenterT1240W3-5/8”CenterT1231W1-5/8”CenterT832W6”CenterT8Otherlampse.g. 34WT12, ...Rulemaking OverviewRulemaking OverviewGeneral Service Fluorescent LampsEPCA defines “general service fluorescent lamp” as fluorescent lamps which canbe used to satisfy the majority of fluorescent applications,but does not includeanylamp designed and marketed forthe following non-general lightingapplications:(1)Fluorescent lamps designed to(5) Reflectorized or aperture lamps.promote plant growth.(6) Fluorescent lamps designed for use in(2)Fluorescent lamps designed forreprographic equipment.cold temperature applications.(3)Colored fluorescent lamps.(7) Lamps primarily designed to produce(4)Impact-resistant fluorescentradiation in the UV region.lamps.(8) Lamps with a CRI≥82.19Rulemaking OverviewCovered General Service Fluorescent Lamps~ 224availablelamp modelsImpact resistantPlant growthCold temperatureColoredCRI≥82Unknown0 models0 models1 models11 models104 models41 models~ 67 lampmodelscovered32WT8~ 157 lamp modelsfiltered out20Rulemaking OverviewRequest for CommentItem 1The Department welcomes comment on the scope of thisrulemaking, under the statutory requirement to consider additionalgeneral service fluorescent lamps. (42 U.S.C. 6295(i)(5))21Rulemaking OverviewIncandescent LampsEPCA defines “incandescent lamp” as a lamp in which light is produced by afilament heated to incandescence by an electric current, including only thefollowing:- Any lamp (commonly referred to as lower wattagenon-reflector general service lamps, including anytungsten halogen lamp) that:-has a ratedwattage between 30-199 watts,- has anE26 medium screw base,- has arated voltageor voltage range that lies at leastpartially in the range of115-130 volts, and is not areflector lamp.- Anyincandescent reflector lamp.- Anygeneral service incandescent lamp(high- or higher-wattage lamp)that has arated wattage above 199(above 205for a high wattagereflector lamp).22Rulemaking OverviewIncandescent Reflector LampsEPCA defines “incandescent reflector lamp” as anylamp which:•isnotcoloredor designed forrough or vibrationservice,•contains an inner reflective coating on the outer bulbto direct the light;•is an R, PAR or similar bulb shape (excluding ERor BR) with an E26 medium screw base;•has arated voltageor voltage range that lies at least partially in the range of115 and 130 volts;•has adiameter that exceeds 2.75 inches; and•is either:–a low(er)-wattage reflector lamp that has arated wattage between40 and 205; or–a high(er)-wattage reflector lamp that has arated wattage above 205.23Rulemaking OverviewIncandescent Reflector Lamp Terms Defined•The CFR provides definitions for terms used in EPCA’s definitionof incandescent reflector lamps (cont’d.)–Colored incandescent lamp: an incandescent lamp designated andmarketed as a colored lamp that has a CRI less than 50...; has acorrelated color temperature less than 2,500K or greater than 4,600K;has a lens containing 5% or more neodymium oxide; or contains a filterto suppress yellow and green portions of the spectrum and is specificallydesigned, designated and marketed as a plant light.–Rough or vibration serviceincandescent reflector lamp: a reflectorlamp in which a C–11 (5 support), C–17 (8 support), or C–22 (16support) filament is mounted ...and that is designated and marketedspecifically for rough or vibration service applications.24Rulemaking OverviewIncandescent Reflector Lamp Terms Defined•The CFR provides definitions for terms used in EPCA’s definitionof incandescent reflector lamps–ER Lamp: a reflector lamp with an elliptical section below the bulb'smajor diameter and ...–BR Lamp: reflector lamp that has a bulged section below the bulb'smajor diameter and ... A BR30 lamp has a lamp wattage of 85 or lessthan 66 and a BR40 lamp has a lamp wattage of 120 or less.25Item 2The Department welcomes comment on how a morestringent standard for incandescent reflector lamps might impact themarket share of ER and BR lamps.Rulemaking OverviewGeneral Service Incandescent Lamps•EPCA’s definition of “general service incandescent lamp”encompassesany incandescent lamp(other than a miniature orphotographic lamp) that has an E26 medium screw base, a rated voltagerange at least partially within 115 and 130 volts,but does not include lampsspecifically designed for:−Traffic signal, or street lighting−Code beacon, marineservice;signal, lighthouse, reprographic,−Airway, airport, aircraft, or otheror other communication service;aviation service;−Medical or dental service;−Marine, or marine signal service;−Microscope, map,−Photo, projection, soundmicrofilm, or other specializedreproduction, or film viewer service;equipment service;−Stage, studio, or television service;−Swimming pool, or other underwater−Mill, saw mill, or other industrialservice;process service;−Decorative or showcase service;−Mine service;−Producing colored light;−Headlight, locomotive, street railway,−Shatter resistance which has an externalor other transportation service;protective coating; or−Heating service;−Appliance service.Note: The majority of these terms remain undefined by EPCA or DOE26Request for FeedbackItem 4The Department welcomes comment on which, ifany, of the exemption categories in the statutory definitionfor general service incandescent lamps requireclarification.27Rulemaking OverviewIncandescent LampsReflector LampsNon-Reflector LampsLow-wattage: 40-205 WWattage: 30-199 WHigh-wattage: > 205 WGeneral ServiceNon-reflector Lamps Low-wattage: 30-199 WIncandescent LampsNon-reflector Lamps High-wattage: > 199 WReflector Lamps: Low and High-wattage28Rulemaking OverviewGeneral Service Incandescent Non-Reflector Lamp ShapesThese general service incandescent non-reflector lamp shapes areconsidered eligible for consideration under 42 USC 6295(i)(5).A 15A 19G 25A 21C 15G 30A 23S 19BT 15P 25T 10PS 25PS 3029Rulemaking OverviewRequest for FeedbackItem 3The Department welcomes comment on the issue ofproduct coverage, specifically the requirement to consider additionalgeneral service incandescent lamps. (42 U.S.C. 6295(i)(5))3023NOPR Analyses14Rulemaking OverviewIntroductionFinal Rule56Closing RemarksPublic Meeting AgendaANOPR Analyses12NOPR AnalysesRulemaking Overview4IntroductionFinal Rule5Closing Remarks631Market and Technology AssessmentAnalyses for Advance Notice of Proposed RulemakingFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRuleNationalImpactAnalysisEnergy Use andEnd-Use LoadCharacterizationMarket andTechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisShipmentsAnalysis32Market and Technology AssessmentPurpose•Characterize the market, lamps industry and measures to improveefficacy.Method•Identify and characterize manufacturers of lamps;•Estimate lamp type market shares (shipments) and trends in themarket;•Identify technologies that could improve lamp efficacy; and•Identify regulatory and non-regulatory initiatives intended toimprove the efficacy of lamps covered under this rulemaking.33Market and Technology AssessmentRelationship of AnalysesMarket andTechnologyAssessmentProduct ClassesTechnology OptionsScreening AnalysisDesign OptionsBaseline ModelsEngineering AnalysisItem 5The Department welcomes information on shipments, manufacturingcosts, distribution channels and estimates of market shares for the lampsconsidered in this rulemaking. In order for the data to be used to conductenergy savings calculations, a degree of disaggregation (e.g., by productclass and wattage) is desirable.34Market and Technology AssessmentGeneral Service Fluorescent Lamp Product Classes•EPACT 1992 established 8 product classes based on lamp type(from fluorescent lamp definitions) and wattage.•DOE is considering modifying the product classes for 4-foot and 2­foot lamps to account for new market diversity in lamp diameter.Lamp TypeNominal Lamp WattageMin. CRIMin. Avg. LPW4-foot medium bi-pin> 35 W≤35 W694575.075.02-foot U-shaped> 35 W≤35 W694568.064.08-foot slimline> 65 W≤65 W694580.080.08-foot high output> 100 W≤100 W694580.080.035Market and Technology AssessmentGeneral Service Fluorescent Lamp Product ClassesLamps with different diameters often require ballasts specificallydesigned to operate those lamps.Therefore, T8 and T12 lamps arenot usually interchangeable with each other.Lamp TypeLamp DiameterNominal Lamp WattageMin. CRI4-foot medium bi-pin> T8> 35 W≤35 W6945≤T8> 35 W≤35 W69452-foot U-shaped> T8> 35 W≤35 W6945≤T8> 35 W≤35 W69458-foot slimlineT12> 65 W≤65 W69458-foot high outputT12> 100 W≤100 W694536Market and Technology AssessmentRequest for FeedbackItem 6The Department welcomes comment on the modified productclasses it is considering for general service fluorescent lamps. Thisincludes whether specific lamp diameters or lamp diameter rangeswould be more appropriate.The Department is also interested in comment on the CRIdistinctions and wattage bins provided in the existing productclasses.3738Market and Technology AssessmentGeneral Service Fluorescent Lamp Baseline ModelsTo limit redundancy, DOE is proposingto analyze representative productclasses. From each representativeproduct class, DOE would select abaseline model.Lamp TypeLamp DiameterNominal Lamp WattageMin. CRIBaseline Model4-foot> T8> 35 W69(scale from below)linear≤35 W4534W/48T12/RS≤T8> 35 W69(scale from below)≤35 W4532W/48T8/RS2-foot> T8> 35 W6940W/23T12/U6/RSU-shaped≤35 W45(scale from above)≤T8> 35 W69(scale from below)≤35 W4531W/23T8/U1/RS8-footT12> 65 W6975W/96T12/SPslimline≤65 W45(scale from above)8-foot highT12> 100 W69(scale from below)output≤100 W4595W/96T12/HOMarket and Technology AssessmentIncandescent Reflector Lamp Product Classes•EPACT 1992 established 6 productclasses, grouping together lampwattages.•DOE is considering using the sameproduct classes. However, DOE isinterested in whether these lampswould be better classified in differentwattage ranges.•DOE considered separate productclasses for spot versus flood reflectorlamps. However, it appears that theirefficacies are the same, so thisconsumer utility does not impactefficacy.WattageMin. Avg. LPW40-50 watts10.551-66 watts11.067-85 watts12.586-115 watts14.0116-155 watts14.5156-205 watts15.039Market and Technology AssessmentRequest for FeedbackItem 7The Department welcomes comment on the productclasses it is considering for incandescent reflector lamps. Thisincludes whether the wattage ranges need to be refined.40Market and Technology AssessmentIncandescent Reflector Lamp Baseline Models•To limit redundancy, DOE is proposing to analyzerepresentative product classes. From each representativeproduct class, DOE would select a baseline model.WattageProduct Class #Baseline Model40-50 watts13(scale from 75W)51-66 watts14(scale from 75W)67-85 watts1575W PAR86-115 watts16(interpolate between 75W & 150W)116-155 watts17150W PAR156-205 watts18(scale from 150W)41Market and Technology AssessmentGeneral Service Incandescent Lamp Product Classes•In the ANOPR, DOE will publishthe Secretary’s determination onwhether to regulate general service incandescent lamps (whichinclude high-wattage reflector lamps and non-reflector lamps).•DOE is considering product classes fornon-reflector lampsby:–Wattage or lumen output, and–Design features or consumer utility(e.g., 3-way lamps, lamp coating, design voltage and rough service).•DOE is considering product classes forhigh-wattage reflectorlampsby:–Wattage ranges to be consistent with product classes for low-wattageincandescent reflector lamp standards.–DOE will need to consider wattage ranges.42Market and Technology AssessmentRequest for FeedbackItem 8DOE welcomes comment on what, if any, product classes DOEshould consider for additional general service incandescent lamps.This includes, for non-reflector lamps, whether the classes should bebased on lamp coatings, wattage ranges, lamp design voltages and/orlumen ranges, and whether 3-way lamps should be treated as aseparate product class. For high-wattage incandescent reflector lamps,DOE welcomes comment on any appropriate product class(es).43Market and Technology AssessmentGeneral Service Incandescent Lamp Baseline Models•Incandescent Non-Reflector Lamps:–DOE is still determining product classes and baseline models.–DOE understands that three A-line lamp wattages sold todaydominate the A-line lamp market: 60W, 75W and 100W.–This information, along with stakeholder comments, will beconsidered when choosing representative product classes andbaseline models for non-reflector lamps.•DOE will also be evaluating high-wattage reflector lamps andwelcomes input on product classes and baseline models.44Market and Technology AssessmentRequest for FeedbackItem 10The Department welcomes comment on the representativeproduct classes proposed in section 3.4. Additionally, theDepartment welcomes comment on the scaling of findings from therepresentative product classes to other product classes that are notanalyzed.Item 11The Department welcomes comment on the baselinemodels identified for each of the representative product classes. Thisincludes specific technological information such as lamp size,wattage rating, CRI, CCT (correlated color temperature), operatinglife, etc.45Screening AnalysisAnalyses for Advance Notice of Proposed RulemakingFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRuleNationalImpactAnalysisEnergy Use andEnd-Use LoadCharacterizationMarket andTechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisShipmentsAnalysis46Screening AnalysisPurposeScreen out technology options that will not be considered in therulemaking for fluorescent and incandescent lampsMethodEach technology will be screened based on the following fourcriteria:Health or safety of technologiesImpacts on lamp utility or availability to consumersPracticability to manufacture, install and serviceTechnological feasibility47Screening AnalysisInitial Technology OptionsGeneral Service Fluorescent Lamps•Electrode materials & coatings• Glass and coatings• Lamp fill-gas composition• Phosphor materialsIncandescent Reflector Lamps• Higher temperature incandescent light sources• Filament materials & coatings• Reflector materials & coatings• Lamp fill-gas48Screening AnalysisInitial Technology Options (cont’d)Incandescent Non-Reflector Lamps•Higher temperature incandescent light sources•Filament materials & coatings•Glass and coatings•Lamp fill-gasItem 9The Department welcomes comment on the preliminary designoptions identified in this section for each of the three lamp types. Morespecifically, the Department welcomes comment on whether there areother technologies or design features that it should consider and what, ifany, impacts they might have on safety, performance, and consumerutility.49Screening AnalysisRequest for FeedbackItem 12The Department welcomescomment on whether theDepartment’s analysis shouldallow incandescent (bothreflector and additional general service incandescent) lamplife to vary in order to increase efficacy? If so, what would bea reasonable amount of variance (i.e., not a ‘significantadverse impact’) for reflector lamps and for general serviceincandescent lamps?The Department also welcomes comment on a reasonableamount of variance for life and correlated color temperature(CCT) on general service fluorescent lamps?50Engineering AnalysisAnalyses for Advance Notice of Proposed RulemakingFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRuleNationalImpactAnalysisEnergy Use andEnd-Use LoadCharacterizationMarket andTechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisShipmentsAnalysis51Engineering AnalysisPurpose•To characterize the relationship between manufacturer sellingprice and lamp efficacy.Rulemaking Analyses•Life-Cycle Cost andPayback Period•Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis•Employment ImpactAnalysisManufacturer Selling Price –Efficacy Relationship

Manufacturer Selling PriceEfficacy Level52EstablishEfficacyLevelsEngineering AnalysisEngineering Analysis MethodologyEstablishEfficacyLevelsAnalyticalReportDataCollection &InterviewsDevelopEngineeringAnalysisCurvesÕDetermine efficacy levels for gathering data on cost ofproduction.ÕCollect manufacturer design options and cost data,broken down by direct and indirect costs. Conductinterviews with manufacturers to enhance understandingof efficacy improvements and associated costs.ÕPrepare Engineering Analysis based on manufacturerdata. Qualify cost-energy consumption relationship withinterview information and publicly available data.ÕDocument the Engineering Analysis, providing anaverage manufacturer selling price associated with eachefficacy level for each lamp analyzed.53Engineering AnalysisManufacturer Production CostManufacturerProductionCost=+ManufacturerMarkups(Non-Production Costs)ManufacturerSelling Price•Direct material•Sales, general & admin.•Direct labor•Research & development•Factory overhead•Interest•Depreciation•Profit•Manufacturer Production Cost–Conduct interviews with manufacturers–Develop cost – efficacy relationship–Qualify product costs using literature, raw material input prices–Retail price data54Engineering AnalysisDevelopment of Engineering Analysis CurvesManufacturers supplydata on baseline lampsto be analyzed from therepresentative productclasses.1Manufacturerssupply data onimprovements inefficacy andassociatedproduction costs2DOE reviews &qualifies productioncost data withadditional datapoints3BASELINELamp Efficacy

Manufacturer Production CostLamp Efficacy

Manufacturer Production CostLamp Efficacy

Manufacturer Production Cost55Engineering AnalysisManufacturer Interview Guide•The baseline lamp should represent a popular model, with highsales volume.•The efficacy improvements over the baseline should:–Not reduce the operating life of the lamp by more than X%–Hold lumen output to within Y% ofthe baseline lamp (i.e., as efficacyincreases, wattage must decrease so light output is ‘normalized’)–For fluorescent lamps, must be able to operate on the same ballast asthe baseline lamp•Max tech – if cost were no object,the highest efficacy lamp that istechnologically achievable.56Engineering AnalysisRequest for FeedbackItem 13For each product class, the Department welcomesinformation on design options and incremental manufacturing costsfor five lamp efficacy levels above the baseline, one of which wouldbe max tech. Detailed information on the lamp performance (e.g.,energy consumption, light output, operating life, etc.) and theincremental manufacturing costs (e.g., material costs, labor costs,overhead costs (excluding depreciation), building conversion capitalexpenditures, tooling/equipment conversion capital expenditures,research and development (R&D) expenses, marketing expenses,etc.) would be welcome.Item 15The Department welcomes feedback on its proposal tonormalize its engineering analysis around the lumen output of eachbaseline lamp.57Engineering AnalysisMarkups to Estimate Manufacturer Selling PriceManufacturerProductionCost=+ManufacturerMarkups(Non-Production Costs)ManufacturerSelling Price•Direct material•Sales, general & admin.•Direct labor•Research & development•Factory overhead•Interest•Depreciation•Profit•Examples of publicly available information:–SEC 10-K reports–Company annual reports–Dun and Bradstreet reports–Value Line industry statistics–Standard and Poor’s composite industry statistics–Ibbotson Associates reports58Engineering AnalysisRequest for FeedbackItem 14The Department welcomes comment on the proposedapproach to determining the relationship between manufacturerselling price and lamp efficacy.Item 16The Department welcomes comment on the markupapproach proposed for developing estimates of manufacturer sellingprices.59Engineering AnalysisProprietary Designs•The Department will evaluateall design options that arecommercially available or present in a working prototype,including proprietary designs.•Proprietary designs will only beconsidered if they do not presenta unique path to a given efficacy level.•The confidentiality of manufacturers will be maintained.Outside Regulatory Changes•Consider the effects to manufacturers of other regulatory changesoutside of the standards rulemaking process.60Engineering AnalysisRegulatory FeedbackItem 17The Department welcomes comment on whether there areproprietary designs that the Department should consider for any ofthe lamps under consideration by this rulemaking, and if so, how theDepartment should acquire the cost data necessary for evaluatingthese designs.Item 18The Department welcomes comment on whether there areoutside issues that the Departmentshould consider in its analysis ofgeneral service fluorescent lamps, incandescent reflector lamps andadditional general service incandescent lamps.Item 21The Department welcomes comment on other engineeringissues that could impact the engineering analysis.61Markups for Equipment Price DeterminationAnalyses for Advance Notice of Proposed RulemakingFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRuleNationalImpactAnalysisEnergy Use andEnd-Use LoadCharacterizationMarket andTechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisShipmentsAnalysis62Markups for Equipment Price DeterminationPurpose•Develop overall distribution chain price markups from themanufacturer to the consumer•Establish the consumer pricesfor both baseline lamps and lampsat higher standard levelsDistribution Channel ExamplesDistribution Channel 1 Distribution Channel 2Distribution Channel 3 (Nat’l Acct)ManufacturerManufacturerManufacturerDistributorDistributorContractorConsumerConsumerConsumer63Markups for Equipment Price DeterminationRequest for FeedbackItem 22The Department welcomes comment on the distributionchain for lamps, the key stakeholders in those distribution chains, thetypical markups applied by those stakeholders, and the overallmarkup from manufacturer selling price to retail shelf.The Department welcomes comment on the percentage of shipmentsby distribution chain, for each lamp type.64Energy Use and End-Use LoadAnalyses for Advance Notice of Proposed RulemakingFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRuleNationalImpactAnalysisEnergy Use andEnd-Use LoadCharacterizationMarket andTechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisShipmentsAnalysis65Energy Use and End-Use LoadPurpose•To calculate operating costs forthe life-cycle cost and paybackperiod analyses.•To develop energy use and demand characteristics relevant toeach lamp type and its applicable sector.Method•Develop average energy use values from lamp wattage andoperating hour data.•Take into account variability by using a distribution of operatinghours.•The Fluorescent Lamp Ballast Rulemaking provides insight intohow DOE could consider lighting-HVAC interactions.66Energy Use and End-Use LoadInputs•Lamp Wattage: Manufacturer information verified by catalogs.•Operating Hours: Distribution of values as used by theFluorescent Lamp Ballast rulemaking.20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%1F40T12/ES2F40T12/ES2F96T12/ES2F96T12HO/ES

Probability259 1088192227193561438951916115689277188735Hours / YearSource: Fluorescent Lamp Ballast Rulemaking67Energy Use and End-Use LoadHVAC Interactions•The Department could use the same methodology to considerHVAC interactions as used inthe Fluorescent Lamp BallastRule.–The Fluorescent Lamp Ballast Rulemaking estimated nationalaverage savings of ~ 6.25% between 2003 and 2030 fromHVAC interactions (when a change in building stockefficiency over time was considered).•Building stock played an important role in the size of anational HVAC impact.–The Fluorescent Lamp Ballast Rulemaking included theHVAC impact in the National Energy Savings (NES) analysisby using a multiplier on totalenergy savings. The Rule didnot include HVAC interactionswith the Life-Cycle Cost (LCC)analysis or the Net Present Value (NPV) calculation.68Energy Use and End-Use LoadRequest for FeedbackItem 19The Department welcomes recommendations on sourcesof data that would provide end-use operating profiles for each ofthe lamp types covered under this rulemaking.Item 20The Department welcomes comment on whether the enduse operating profiles are different for each of the lamp typescovered under this rulemaking, and if so, how.69Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisAnalyses for Advance Notice of Proposed RulemakingFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRuleNationalImpactAnalysisEnergy Use andEnd-Use LoadCharacterizationMarket andTechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisShipmentsAnalysis70Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisPurpose•Assess the payback period (PBP)and the net life-cycle cost (LCC)impacts on the consumer of lamp efficacy standards.Method•LCC equals consumer price plusthe sum of annual operating costsdiscounted to a particular base year•Economic evaluation from the consumer perspective•Analysis implemented in an Excel®spreadsheet•Results are expressed as LCCdifference (baseline minus standardlevel)•Simple Payback (years) is also calculated and reported71Consumer LifeCycle Cost(Baseline and Standard)LCC impacts(difference betweenbaseline and standard)Operating Cost(Sum & discount topresent value)First Cost(Consumer Price &Installation)Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisApproach•Because this rulemaking is only considering lamps, the LCC and PBPanalyses will be based on socket-to-socket replacements.•Monte Carlo analysis will allow DOEto consider end-user variabilityand conduct sensitivity analyses.–Consider different end-use sectors by weighting input distributions–Correlate inputs where necessary (e.g., electricity price and sector)•One LCC and PBP analysis result per representative product class.72Lamp PriceContractorMarkupSales TaxTotal InstalledCostEnd-UserDirect PriceORLampWattageOperatingHoursElectricityPrice 2012Annual ElectricityCostAnnual ElectricityConsumptionOperatingCostLifetime OperatingCostPaybackPeriodLife-CycleCostReplacementLaborOnly forSpecificCasesLamp LifetimeLamp PriceDiscount RateElectricityPrice TrendAnalysisPeriodSalvage Value(as credit)BallastFactorLife-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisInputValueOutput73Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisAnnual Energy Costs•Energy prices are used to convert energy use to energy costs.•The Department proposes to use a distribution of averageelectricity prices based on EIAForm 826 for the commercial,industrial and residential building sectors.•The Department will use the Energy Information Administration(EIA)Annual Energy Outlook(AEO) for projections of futureaverage electricity prices (reference, high, and low scenarios).74Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

ProbabilityCommercial Sector Electricity Prices, EIA 20060.060.050.040.030.020.0102.85.8 8.8 11.8 14.8 17.8 20.8 23.8 26.8 29.8Price (cents/kWh)75Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisReplacement Labor and Lamp Lifetime•Replacement Labor only applies toC&I sectors, where the moreefficient lamp lifetime is shorter or longer than the base case.•Replacement Labor is a function of labor rates and duration.•The Department may consider the impact of spot versus group relamping on lamp life and on replacement costs.Item 25The Department welcomes comment on whether and how todevelop maintenance, repair and installation costs for all three lamptypes. In particular, will policies of group re-lamping versus spot relamping impact the installation costs differentially with standardlevels?Item 26DOE welcomes comment on appropriate lamp lifetimes forthe three lamps types covered in this rulemaking. For the commercialand industrial sectors, should group re-lamping be taken intoconsideration, and if so, how should the Department characterize itsimpact on lamp lifetimes?76Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisLCC Analysis Period•Product lifetimes for the basecase and standards case could bedifferent, therefore DOE proposesto calculate a salvage value(discussed on next slide) to accountfor the value of an operating lampat the end of the analysis period.•LCC time period of analysis could be based on:–Variable Usage-Scaled Time Period: Constant baseline lamp life (hrs);Because usage patterns vary by customer, analysis period (yrs) wouldvary by customer (but would be the same in the base vs. standards casesfor each customer).–Fixed Usage-Scaled Time Period: Constant analysis period (yrs) that isbased on typical lamp life (hrs)and typical annual operating hours.The Department welcomes input on which time period it shouldselect for the LCC analysis.77Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisSalvage Value•A ‘salvage value’ of a lamp is the lamp replacement cost proratedby the lamp’s remaining service life.SV=CostLampRpl⋅1⎡⎢⎢⎣−⎤⎛⎜⎜⎞⎟⎟PanalysisLamp−Lifen⋅⎥⎥⎦LifeLamp⎝⎠where:SV= total salvage value,CostLampRpl= cost of the replacement lamp,Panalysis= analysis period,n= number of lamp replacementswithin the analysis period, andLifeLamp= average rated lamp life.78Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisDiscount Rate•Discount rates are used to convert streams of annual operatingexpenses to present value in the LCC analysis.•DOE will derive a distributionof discount rates for each sector.–Commercial and industrial sector discount rates by estimating theweighted average cost of capital (or WACC) for commercialconsumers of lamps.–Residential sector discount rates from estimates of the interest or“finance cost” to purchase residential products.Item 24The Department welcomes input on the proposedapproaches for estimating discount rates for residential andcommercial consumers of lamps covered under this rulemaking.79Shipments AnalysisAnalyses for Advance Notice of Proposed RulemakingFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRuleNationalImpactAnalysisEnergy Use andEnd-Use LoadCharacterizationMarket andTechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisShipmentsAnalysis80Shipments AnalysisPurpose•Quantify changes in lamp shipments due to potential new energyefficiency standardsMethod•Establish a base-case shipment forecast (absent standards) thattakes into account market conditions and regulatory actions(e.g., ballast regulation)•Develop revised shipments forecasts at each potential standardlevel–Consider only covered products in the base case, and–Use a “substitution analysis” to account for consumers who switch tonon-covered lamps at higher standard levels81Shipments AnalysisSubstitution Analysis•Approach: Consider consumer behavior in response to standards(e.g., installing substitute lamps thatare not covered lamps, and thusare not regulated)•Impact: The base-case sockets andassociated energy savingspotential may be eroded (or increased) by consumers substituting noncovered lamps•Elasticity: The substitution analysis will replace shipments demandelasticity (i.e., the Department proposesto assume consumers will stillwant to fill all sockets that are operating in the base case, but notnecessarily with covered lamps)•Requirements: Substitute lamps should have similar light output andsimilar lamp shape, and must operate in the basecase socket•Apportion percentage of socketsmigrating to substitutes•Percentages are likely to increase at higher standard levels82Shipments AnalysisFluorescent Lamp Shipments•There is limited publicly available information on shipments offluorescent lamps and the breakdown between lamp types andwattages•The Department needs to project shipments of fluorescent lampsover 30 years•Two possible approaches:–Shipment projection based on historical data–Shipment projection based on modeling the installed base offluorescent ballasts nationally83Shipments AnalysisFluorescent Lamp Shipments – Historical Data•Approach: project future fluorescent shipments by type, wattageand sector based on historical shipments•Possible sources:–Trade association data–U.S. Census – ballast shipments & lamp shipments(note: no lamp data since 1992)–Distribution chains to estimate end-use sectors•Apply expert advice to adjust projection to account for impact ofexisting and EPACT 2005 ballast standards.•Include a high, medium and low projection scenario, based ondifferent assumptions to bound the analysis•Approach is simple and transparent,facilitating stakeholder review84Shipments AnalysisFluorescent Lamp Shipments – Ballast Inventory Model•Approach: develop a model of the installed base of fluorescentballasts to predict shipments of fluorescent lamps•Ballast Inventory Vintaging Model:–Consider three changes to installed base of ballasts that introducenew (magnetic and electronic) ballasts:•New Construction – new fixtures that are installed each year due to floorspace growth in a particular sector.•Replacements – ballast replacementsdue to failure. Consider operatinghours of end-use applications.•Retrofits – new fixtures replacingexisting lamps and fixtures duringrenovation or remodeling.–Calibrate with U.S. Census ballast shipments–Impact of new ballast regulations (DOE standard, EPACT 2005)•Lamp shipments calculated from ballast inventory model andoperating hours85Shipments AnalysisIncandescent Lamp Shipments•Limited publicly available information on incandescent lampshipments, sectors and the breakdown between lamp types andwattages•Develop a projection of shipments from historical data•Possible sources:–Trade association with total shipments–U.S. Lighting Market Characterization Volume I: National LightingInventory and Energy Consumption Estimate•Sockets by sector•Average operating hours–U.S. Census (although lamp data was last collected in 1992)86Shipments AnalysisData Needs•The Department welcomes information to support its ShipmentsAnalysis on:–Historical shipments of fluorescent lamps and incandescent lamps bytype and wattage–Breakdown of shipments by end-use sector–Information on distribution channels for fluorescent lamps andincandescent lamps–Comments on trends or issues that may influence the projection oflamps87Shipments AnalysisRequest for FeedbackThe Department welcomes inputon the data needs and approachesfor estimating lamp shipments.Item 27The Department welcomes comment on the proposedaccounting methodology for new construction, replacements andretrofits for each of the lamp types covered in this rulemaking.Item 28The Department welcomes comment on how anyamended standard for general service fluorescent lamps andincandescent reflector lamps, as well as a standard on generalservice incandescent lamps, might impact lamp shipments. TheDepartment also invites input on market-pull programs that promotethe adoption of more-efficacious lamps.88National Impact AnalysisAnalyses for Advance Notice of Proposed RulemakingFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRuleNationalImpactAnalysisEnergy Use andEnd-Use LoadCharacterizationMarket andTechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisShipmentsAnalysis89National Impact AnalysisPurpose•Determine the projected national energy savings and national consumernet present value.Method•Develops annual time series of national energy and economic impacts•Utilizes the shipments model to estimate the total stock of impactedfluorescent and incandescent lamps in service each year•Utilizes the LCC to estimate cost and energy use per unit in any givenyear•Aggregates the costs and energy use for all years in the analysis period•Reports energy savings in Quads of primary energy consumption•Reports estimates for economic impact as change in consumer NationalNet Present Value (in constant year dollars)•Accounts for the time-value of money though defined discount rates90Annual EnergyConsumptionAnnual EnergyConsumptionAnnual EnergyConsumptionBase CaseAnnual EnergyConsumptionAnnual EnergyConsumptionAnnual EnergyConsumptionAnnual EnergyConsumptionBase CaseAnnual EnergyConsumptionNational Impact AnalysisNational Energy Savings Flow DiagramBase-CaseShipmentsAnalysisStandards-ProjectionCase ProjectionBase Case2042Base Case2015Base Case20142013Base-CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2012Base Case2042Base Case2015Base Case20142013Standards-CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2012Base-CaseCumulativeEnergy UseStandards-CaseCumulativeEnergy UseSite to SourceEnergyConversionNational EnergySavings91National Impact AnalysisNational Consumer Net Present Value Flow DiagramBase-CaseShipmentsAnalysisStandards-ProjectionCase ProjectionEnergyCost(2012 –20XX)CumulativeOperating CostSavingsCumulativeTotal EquipmentCost IncreaseDiscountRateNet PresentValueMainten.Cost(2012 –20XX)EquipmentCost(2012 –2042)EnergyCost(2012 –20XX)Mainten.Cost(2012 –20XX)EquipmentCost(2012 –2042)92National Impact AnalysisRequest for FeedbackItem 29The Department welcomes comment on the NESspreadsheet models used for estimating national impacts ofamended energy conservation standards.93231ANOPR Analyses4Rulemaking OverviewIntroductionFinal Rule56Closing RemarksPublic Meeting AgendaNOPR Analyses12ANOPR AnalysesRulemaking Overview3IntroductionFinal Rule5Closing Remarks694ReviseANOPRAnalysesAnalyses for Notice of Proposed RulemakingEnvironmentalAssessmentLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisReviseANOPRAnalysesFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRule95ReviseANOPRAnalysesLife-Cycle Cost Subgroup AnalysisAnalyses for Notice of Proposed RulemakingEnvironmentalAssessmentLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisReviseANOPRAnalysesFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRule96Life-Cycle Cost Subgroup AnalysisPurpose•Analyze the economic impacts of standards on consumersubgroups who may be disproportionately impacted comparedwith the general user populationMethod•Extend the LCC analysis to examine the impacts for definedsubgroupsItem 30The Department welcomes comment on what, if any,consumer subgroups are appropriate in considering standards forgeneral service fluorescent lamps, incandescent reflector lamps andadditional general service incandescent lamps.97ReviseANOPRAnalysesManufacturer Impact AnalysisAnalyses for Notice of Proposed RulemakingEnvironmentalAssessmentLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisReviseANOPRAnalysesFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRule98Manufacturer Impact AnalysisLegislative Requirements•The Manufacturer Impact Analysis(MIA) fulfills a legislativerequirement to determine if aproposed standard is economicallyjustified.–EPCA provides 7 factors to evaluate in determining whether anefficiency standard is justified. Two factors are addressed in the MIA:•Economic impact of standards on manufacturers•Impacts of any lessening of competition in the industry–MIA format changes described in the 2006 report to Congress, at:http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/2006_schedule_setting.html•DOE will collect, evaluate, and report preliminary MIA data in theANOPR•Preliminary data includes: anticipated conversion capitalexpenditures by efficiency level and anticipated direct employmentimpacts99Manufacturer Impact AnalysisPurpose•Assess the impacts of standards on manufacturers•Identify and estimate impacts on manufacturer subgroups thatmay be more severely impacted than the industry as a whole•Examine the impact of cumulative regulatory burden on theindustryMethod•Analyze industry cash flow andnet present value through use ofthe Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM)•Interview manufacturers to refine inputs to the GRIM, developsubgroup analyses, and address qualitative issuesOutput•Industry Net Present Value impacts•Subgroup Net Present Value impacts•Other impacts100Manufacturer Impact AnalysisMethodology•The MIA consists of three main phasesANOPRNOPRPhase 1Phase 2Phase 3IndustryprofilePreliminaryMIAInterviewsInterviewsDevelopDevelop& industrystraw-maninterviewwide /GRIM*guidesubgroupanalysesAssess directemployment,competition,cumulativeburden*Government RegulatoryImpact Model (GRIM)101Industry Profile»Evaluate current and past industrystructure and marketcharacteristics»Produce an industry profile reportwith aggregated findings andcharacteristics»Identify critical issues that requirespecial consideration in the MIA,for example:»Types or groups ofmanufacturers»Access to technology»Potential regulatory scenariosPreliminary MIA Interviews»Occurs during the engineeringanalysis»Topics include:»Shipment projections»Conversion costs»Product mix and profitability»Market shares and industryconsolidation»Cumulative regulatory burdenManufacturer Impact AnalysisMethodology: Phase 1•Consists of the industry profile and preliminary manufacturerimpact analysis interviewsIndustry Profile»Evaluate current and past industrystructure and marketcharacteristics»Produce an industry profile reportwith aggregated findings andcharacteristics»Identify critical issues that requirespecial consideration in the MIA,for example:»Types or groups ofmanufacturers»Access to technology»Potential regulatory scenariosPreliminary MIA Interviews»Occurs during the engineeringanalysis»Topics include:»Shipment projections»Conversion costs»Product mix and profitability»Market shares and industryconsolidation»Cumulative regulatory burden102Straw-man GRIM»Starting point for discussion ofimpacts»Inputs include:»Manufacturer prices»Shipment forecasts»Manufacturing cost estimates»Financial informationInterview Guide Preparation»Interview topics include:»Engineering analysis»Shipments model»Cost structureand financialparameters»Conversion costs»Cumulative burden»Direct employment impacts»Import / Export issues»Consolidation / competitive impacts»Replacement parts or refurbishments»Impact of the standard’s effective dateManufacturer Impact AnalysisMethodology: Phase 2•Consists of the straw-man GRIMand interview guide preparationStraw-man GRIM»Starting point for discussion ofimpacts»Inputs include:»Manufacturer prices»Shipment forecasts»Manufacturing cost estimates»Financial informationInterview Guide Preparation»Interview topics include:»Engineering analysis»Shipments model»Cost structureand financialparameters»Conversion costs»Cumulative burden»Direct employment impacts»Import / Export issues»Consolidation / competitive impacts»Replacement parts or refurbishments»Impact of the standard’s effective date103Manufacturer Interviews»Confidential discussion of potentialimpacts resulting from standards,including:»Obsolescence of existingmanufacturing assets»Tooling»InvestmentAssessment of Impacts»Assess competitive impacts onsmaller, significant manufacturers»Assess cumulative regulatoryburden on manufacturers fromamended DOE standards and otherregulatory actions»Assess impacts on industryemployment levels»Assess impacts on manufacturersubgroupsManufacturer Impact AnalysisMethodology: Phase 3•Consists of the manufacturer interviews, subgroup analyses, andassessment of industry impactsManufacturer Interviews»Confidential discussion of potentialimpacts resulting from standards,including:»Obsolescence of existingmanufacturing assets»Tooling»InvestmentAssessment of Impacts»Assess competitive impacts onsmaller, significant manufacturers»Assess cumulative regulatoryburden on manufacturers fromamended DOE standards and otherregulatory actions»Assess impacts on industryemployment levels»Assess impacts on manufacturersubgroups104Manufacturer Impact AnalysisRequest for FeedbackItem 31The Department welcomes comment on interviewingcompanies to assess manufacturer impacts, and the procedures thatthe Department should follow when scheduling interviews andrequesting information.Item 32If appropriate, what are potential subgroups of lampmanufacturers that should be considered in a manufacturer subgroupanalysis?Item 33The Department welcomes comment on what otherregulations or pending regulations the Department should consider inits examination of cumulative regulatory burden.105ReviseANOPRAnalysesUtility Impact AnalysisAnalyses for Notice of Proposed RulemakingEnvironmentalAssessmentLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisReviseANOPRAnalysesFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRule106Utility Impact AnalysisPurpose•Assess the overall impacts on domestic energy supplies thatwould result from the imposition of standards.Method•The Department proposes to useNEMS-BT, a variant of theNEMS (National Energy Modeling System) developed and usedby DOE/EIA for their Annual Energy Outlook report, as the basisof the Utility Impact Analysis.•Use the energy savings calculated from the NES spreadsheetanalysis to reduce the sector electrical loads from the BuildingDemand Modules in NEMS-BT.•Energy savings translated to a reduction in the electrical demandfaced by the utility system over time.Item 34The Department welcomes input from stakeholders on itsproposed use of NEMS-BT to conduct the utility impact analysis.107ReviseANOPRAnalysesEmployment Impact AnalysisAnalyses for Notice of Proposed RulemakingEnvironmentalAssessmentLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisReviseANOPRAnalysesFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRule108Employment Impact AnalysisPurpose•Assess the overall impact on national employment from theimposition of efficiency standards at differing levels.•Include both direct and indirect employment impacts.–Direct employment impacts are estimated in the manufacturer impactanalysis–Indirect employment impacts result from shifting consumerexpenditures among goods and services (“substitution effect”) andchanging equipment and energy costs (“income effect”)Method•The Department intends to usethe IMSET (Impact of SectorEnergy Technologies) model for the evaluation of indirectemployment impacts.Item 35The Department welcomes feedback on its proposedapproach to assessing employment impacts, both direct and indirect.109ReviseANOPRAnalysesEnvironmental AssessmentAnalyses for Notice of Proposed RulemakingEnvironmentalAssessmentLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisReviseANOPRAnalysesFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRule110Environmental AssessmentPurpose•Estimate national environmental impacts from new energyefficiency standards for lamps covered under this rule.Method•The Department intends to use the environmental impactspredicted from the NEMS-BTmodeling analysis used for theUtility Impacts Analysis. Impactscalculated within NEMS include:–Quantities of U.S. emissions (CO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) frompower plants–Direct environmental Impacts from reduction of fossil fuel use at thebuilding level.–Any measurable impact from NEMS in terms of the trading price ofsulfur dioxide (SO2) in the utility sector and subsequent impact onSO2emissions.Item 36The Department welcomes feedback on its proposedapproach to assessing environmental impacts, both direct andindirect.111ReviseANOPRAnalysesRegulatory Impact AnalysisAnalyses for Notice of Proposed RulemakingEnvironmentalAssessmentLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisReviseANOPRAnalysesFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRule112Regulatory Impact AnalysisPurpose•Explore the potential for non-regulatory alternative to newmanufacturing efficiency standardsMethod•Base the assessment on the actualimpacts of any such initiativesto date, but will consider information presented regarding theimpacts that any existing initiative might have in the future11323NOPR Analyses1ANOPR Analyses4Rulemaking OverviewIntroduction56Closing RemarksPublic Meeting Agenda12ANOPR AnalysesRulemaking Overview3IntroductionFinal RuleNOPR Analyses4Closing Remarks6114Final RuleFinal RuleFrameworkDocumentANOPRNOPRFinalRuleDOJReviewReviseNOPRAnalyses11523NOPR Analyses1ANOPR Analyses4Rulemaking OverviewIntroduction23Final Rule546Public Meeting AgendaANOPR AnalysesRulemaking OverviewIntroductionNOPR AnalysesClosing RemarksFinal Rule116Closing RemarksHow to Submit Written Comments•In all correspondence, please refer to the Fluorescent and IncandescentLamps Rulemaking by–Docket NumberEE–2006–STD–0131, or–Regulatory Identification Number(RIN) 1904-AA92.•Email:fluorescent_and_incandescent_lamps.rulemaking@ee.doe.gov•Postal Mail:Ms. Brenda Edwards-JonesU.S.Department of EnergyBuilding Technologies Program,Mail Stop EE-2JFluorescent and Incandescent Lamps RulemakingRIN 1904-AA921000 Independence Avenue, SWWashington, DC 20585-0121•Courier:Same as above, except “Room 1J-018”in place of “Mail Stop EE-2J”202-586-2945•Comment period closesJune 29, 2006.117